International report: Recent Episodes
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The launch of the Yeni Party in Turkey promises to energise the country's struggling opposition. But while some polls show it leading, it remains vulnerable – already beset by arrests it says are "politically motivated".
In a glitzy video, set to pumping music and shared widely across social media, Ozgur Ozel launched the Yeni Party – "New Party" – vowing to usher in a new era in Turkish politics and end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long rule.
Ozel founded the New Party after a court removed him from leading the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
His rival, former party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 77, who lost every election during his decade in charge of the CHP, replaced him.
Many in the country believe Erdogan played a role in the removal of Ozel, as his popularity grew thanks to tireless campaigning.
Riding the wave The New Party is settings its sights beyond the CHP’s usual supporters.
"It covers the whole political spectrum in Turkish political life," explains Ozel's advisor Ilham Uzel.
"There are critical elements like democratisation, rule of law, secularism and a pro-Western approach, so we maintain these main pillars. But it is not confined to social democracy; we reach out to every section of Turkish society, including Islamists and conservatives, nationalists and liberals. We have Kurdish supporters."
The New Party is riding a wave of excitement. Ninety-one out of 135 CHP parliamentary deputies have defected to its ranks, joined by dozens of mayors and it is swiftly becoming the main opposition in parliament.
Turkey opposition worries that Europe is sacrificing democracy for security
Some polls show the party soaring above 30 percent, leaving Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party behind, while the CHP’s support has collapsed.
The New Party’s broad approach is finding fertile ground. "Even those who still support the governing coalition, the AK Party and MHP, are unhappy with how things are or how politics is practised, especially regarding economic issues. So there is a push towards change," says political commentator Sezin Oney.
"There is a yearning to change things at the grassroots, and the New Party may be the only party that can represent a new way of doing politics. But they have to live up to it, of course."
Corruption charges Erdogan has remained in power for more than 20 years partly by exploiting divisions within the opposition, which is made up of conservatives, hardline secularists, and both Kurdish and Turkish nationalists.
The New Party has a key advantage over the strongly secular CHP, whose history is linked to past policies targeting Turkey’s large Kurdish minority and religious conservatives.
"CHP is identified with many bad experiences that the Kurds and conservative people had in past decades," said Mesut Yegen of the Diyarbakir-based Kurdish Studies Center.
"If you look at what Ozgur Ozel says during his speeches, you may clearly see the Yeni Party doesn’t have the baggage of CHP."
Erdogan has also often exploited the CHP’s history, painting it as anti-religious and hostile to Kurdish minority rights. The New Party faces the tricky task of keeping CHP loyalists on board while reaching new supporters.
But for now, simply staying out of jail may be the most pressing concern for its representatives.
Turkey marks a decade since the coup that never was, but never really ended
Several mayors who joined the New Party have been arrested on corruption charges, widely seen as politically motivated. In the past two years, 26 opposition mayors and hundreds of officials have been imprisoned on corruption allegations, compared to two mayors from Erdogan’s AK Party.
"They are cracking down on our party – every other day, mayors are arrested," says Uzgel. "They filed another charge against our leader. Nobody is safe in this authoritarian regime. So Mr Ozel is on the spot, definitely."
Ozel is protected by parliamentary immunity, but Oney warns he may be running out of time.
"Ozgur Ozel might be imprisoned himself once his immunity is removed by a parliamentary vote, that's a possibility. The only immunity he can have is the immunity bestowed upon him by the people. So only public opinion is protecting him. How much can it protect him? We'll see."
With parliament about to break for summer until October, Ozel has a brief window to strengthen his party and rally public support.
Intensifying clashes between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea are threatening a crucial trade artery responsible for nearly a third of the world's wheat supply, stoking fears of soaring prices and shortages.
Earlier in July, a Russian cruise missile struck the grain carrier Golden Leo, claiming ten lives. This marked the deadliest blow yet in a mounting campaign by both Russian and Ukrainian forces targeting cargo ships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
"This is a new development in recent months," claims shipping analyst Yoruk Isik, who runs the Istanbul-based Bosphorus Observer consultancy. Isik warns that cargo vessels are caught in a deadly tit-for-tat.
"Ukraine has been targeting Russian seaborne bulkers in particular, the ones transporting stolen grain from the occupied territories of Ukraine," explains Isik, "Russia retaliated and hit Ukraine's civilian port infrastructure in Odesa; a mid-sized vessel carrying corn out of Odesa was totally sunk, other vessels were damaged, and sailors died," he adds.
Turkey’s Shipowners’ Association, having logged 136 incidents involving commercial vessels in recent months, is now urging its members to avoid the Black Sea altogether.
Beyond its role as a key channel for Russian oil, the Black Sea is a lifeline for global grain exports, with Russia and Ukraine among the top suppliers.
"It is very important to note that most of Russia's agricultural commodities are exported through the Black Sea, and that almost all of Ukraine's agricultural commodities are shipped via Ukraine's ports," warns Isik.
Bad timing for harvest Around a third of the world's wheat moves through these waters. The surge in attacks across the Black Sea and the neighbouring Sea of Azov has brought exports to a near standstill.
"No port is officially closed, but almost no shipowner wants to go there, so trade is close to zero," claims Istanbul-based international grain dealer Can Atbasoglu. "Sellers want buyers to handle the vessels, and buyers want sellers to handle the vessels, but shipowners don't want to risk it."
This deadlock arrives at the worst possible moment: harvest time. "Normally, Russian sellers would have sold all their August cargoes by now; I don't know if anybody has any sales on their books at present," says Atbasoglu.
Turkey agrees deal to clear Black Sea of mines that threaten Ukrainian exports
Wheat prices are already reacting. "The price in Romania is, say, 20-25 percent higher – that's the clearest effect we're seeing. But everybody is waiting for some kind of intervention, and soon," adds Atbasoglu.
Turkey now leads a NATO mission, along with Bulgaria and Romania, to safeguard navigation in the Black Sea. However, former Turkish ambassador and navigation rights expert Mithat Rende believes Ankara will be wary of any effort to enforce passage for commercial ships. "It's very important that the Ukrainian war should not be transformed into a regional war," cautions Rende.
"Where would it stop? Would you fire missiles and intercept Russian missiles in the Black Sea? They (Russia) already accuse all of us of fighting Russia as NATO. It's very important to avoid such operations," he adds.
Full impact yet to be felt Rende argues Ankara’s priority is diplomacy, having played a pivotal role in brokering the 2022 United Nations-backed grain export deal after Russian forces blocked Ukrainian shipments. "Turkey maintained a dialogue with both the Russian and the Ukrainian sides at the same time," says Rende, "But is there political will for a ceasefire now? I don't see it at present."
Grain trader Atbasoglu warns the full impact of the disruption is not yet reflected in prices. "Buyers are still not fully reacting. It's seen more as an August, or at the latest a September issue, and the markets still want to believe both sides will get together and talk," he says.
However, Atbasoglu cautions that time may be running out. "In 2022, Ukraine was completely closed off, and there was a major panic. We saw the effect: wheat prices jumped 50 percent in 2022, and we could expect something similar if this continues," he concludes.
Africa and the Middle East, which are heavily reliant on Black Sea grain, are beginning to seek pricier alternatives. Europe, too, may soon feel the strain, as drought-hit wheat harvests threaten to push global food prices even higher.
The Israeli parliament's decision to postpone a vote on recognising the Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turkey is being seen as a triumph for regional diplomacy, as Azerbaijan in particular seeks to avert a further escalation in tensions between its close allies.
The Israeli government gave no official reason for postponing the vote to formally recognise the Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turkey during World War I, which would have ratified a motion approved by the cabinet last month.
Ankara strongly denies the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Armenians constitute genocide.
While the motion's architect, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, called recognition a “moral duty”, critics say the move took aim at Turkey amidst rising tensions.
Based in Tbilisi, Israeli defence and security expert Eugene Kogan claims Israel badly miscalculated. “Foreign Minister Sa'ar could have waited and not just dropped a bomb that led to different repercussions coming from different sides,” he said.
Armenia, which is seeking to normalise ties with Turkey, reacted coolly, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan saying he saw no need to comment. Meanwhile, Israel’s close ally Azerbaijan reportedly lobbied Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to drop the motion.
“At the end of the day, it might be either dropped or dismissed, and it will not come again to the new parliament agenda,” predicted Kogan.
The Knesset dissolved on 17 July and won't reconvene until after elections scheduled for 27 October.
Israel's recognition of the Armenian genocide unsettles Turkey and Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan's influence The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that pressure from Azerbaijan tipped the scales, though officials deny it.
Azerbaijan supplies nearly 40 percent of Israel’s oil and is a major customer for Israeli arms. The two countries’ partnership involves frequent Israeli ministerial visits and strong military cooperation, especially crucial for Israel given Azerbaijan’s border with Iran.
Baku also maintains a deep alliance with Ankara, summed up in the phrase “one nation, two states”. As Israeli-Turkish tensions flare over the Gaza conflict and Ankara’s support for Hamas, Azerbaijan is walking a diplomatic tightrope.
Zaur Gasimov, a Caucasus expert at Istanbul’s Turkish-German University, believes Baku viewed the Israeli genocide motion as a direct threat to its difficult balancing act.
“I can imagine that there were negotiations and talks on various levels between political elites of both countries,” he said. “For Israel, Azerbaijan is still of paramount importance. I would even say it's much more significant than it used to be with regard to the situation in and around Iran. So Baku was and is maybe the key intermediary between Israel and the Republic of Turkey.”
In what may be a calculated move to turn up the heat on Israel, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev welcomed Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa this month. It was the first visit by a Palestinian leader since 2011.
“They [Israel] perceive it with a great sense of caution,” claimed analyst Kogan. “They don't know exactly what came out of this particular meeting between Aliyev and the Palestinian prime minister. And so there is a lot of guessing games right now taking place in both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem about the outcome.”
Such ambiguity over Baku’s intentions could strengthen its diplomatic hand, he suggested: “If Aliyev is involved in this Palestinian issue directly and no longer indirectly, it makes the situation very different for the Israelis.”
Turkey warns it could be Israel's 'next enemy' as tensions escalate
Syrian precedent Baku is already leveraging its strong relationships with both Israel and Turkey to cool tempers.
“We have organised meetings between Turkey and Israel in Baku, specifically at the very beginning of the change of the Assad regime in Syria, where both parties had their own legitimate concerns,” said Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to the Azerbaijani president.
Syria is viewed as a potential flashpoint, with Israel and Turkey having a military presence. One tangible outcome of Azeri-brokered talks was the establishment last year of a military hotline in Syria, providing a rare glimmer of hope as tensions continue to mount.
“It's not unavoidable that Israel and Turkey will reach confrontation. I think we can stop this process,” argued Gallia Lindenstrauss, a specialist in Turkish foreign policy at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies.
“They have a hotline between the Israeli Air Force and the Turkish Air Force, making sure that we will not have a collision in the skies of Syria, because we know both air forces are operating there. And the hotline has managed to keep the situation quiet. If I'm trying to find some anchor of reassurance that Turkish-Israeli relations can be controlled, it's Syria.”
As Israel approaches elections, a temporary lull in Turkish-Israeli tensions is anticipated. Still, since the main opposition shares the government’s concerns over Turkey, relations are set to remain fraught.
On 16 July, Turkey marked a decade since the failed coup that shook the nation. Its defeat is widely viewed as the final curtain on military meddling in politics and as the moment when President Erdogan cemented his grip on power, yet the aftershocks for human rights and foreign relations still reverberate.
On 16 July, Turkey marked a decade since the failed coup that shook the nation. Its defeat is widely viewed as the final curtain on military meddling in politics and as the moment when President Erdogan cemented his grip on power, yet the aftershocks for human rights and foreign relations still reverberate.
A decade ago, factions within the Turkish military, composed of rebellious officers and followers of the Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, launched a dramatic attempt to topple President Erdogan.
"I remember, as a soldier, those who started the coup," recalls Murat Aslan, an army officer at the time. "I had no idea that there were members of this organisation (Gulen followers); they were very secretive."
Erdogan tightens his grip
Now a security analyst at SETA, a pro-government think tank, Aslan describes the failed coup as a turning point that reshaped the course of Turkish democracy.
"The message was very clear. Turkish society collectively rejected it," said Aslan. "Thousands took to the streets; that's more than challenging, because you see tanks rolling and people trying to stop them, trying to capture the soldiers with their rifles. It takes more than courage." More than 250 people died resisting the coup.
In the aftermath, Erdogan imposed emergency rule and expanded his presidential authority through a sharply contested national referendum. "This military intervention actually consolidated the Erdogan-led government," Aslan added.
Turkey's military, relations with US to survive failed coup, ruling party vice-president
Hundreds of soldiers and officers faced prosecution as the government declared an end to the army's long history of political interference. Since 1960, the military had orchestrated three coups, the most recent in 1980.
A decade of purges and closures
In the wake of the failed takeover, tens of thousands were purged from state institutions, many never returning even after being cleared.
More than a thousand NGOs were shut down during two years of emergency rule. Milena Buyum, senior Turkey campaigner for Amnesty International, acknowledges the grave threat to democracy posed by the attempted coup: "The state has a responsibility to ensure the safety and security of its citizens and to investigate criminal acts like the ones carried out that night," said Buyum.
Turkey's Erdogan warms to Russia after West coup response
However, Buyum warns that many of the measures introduced under the state of emergency have since been written into ordinary law, permanently curtailing fundamental freedoms: "The right to freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and association: the impact on civil society was felt very sharply and starkly in the immediate aftermath of the coup, but that impact continues," said Buyum.
Ankara's alliances
The failed coup also drove a wedge into Turkey's long-standing alliance with the United States. "Ankara saw the hand of the United States behind the failed coup attempt," claims Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who leads the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund.
Even before the attempted coup, Erdogan's relations with President Barack Obama had been tense. Obama's belated support, offered only after the coup had failed, fuelled Ankara's suspicions of US complicity, particularly as Washington refused to extradite Fethullah Gulen, whom Erdogan blamed for orchestrating the plot. Gulen denied the accusation until his death in 2024.
Turks in France divided on failed coup
Unluhisarcikli observes that US-Turkish relations remained strained for years, while Erdogan gravitated towards Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose rapid show of support stood in sharp contrast to Washington's hesitation.
"Putin was among the first leaders, I believe even the first, to extend political support to the elected government in Ankara, and in those days I believe that support mattered greatly to President Erdogan," Unluhisarcikli said.
Rumours still persist in Turkey today that Moscow warned Erdogan on the day of the failed coup. Unluhisarcikli says it was only with the election of President Donald Trump, who shared Erdogan's animosity towards Obama and Joe Biden, that US-Turkish relations began to thaw, a shift highlighted at this month's NATO summit in Ankara. Yet the wave of mass arrests during the summit, enabled by post-coup emergency powers, served as a stark reminder that the shadow of the failed takeover still looms over Turkey.
US President Donald Trump made headlines this week at the Nato summit in Ankara by declaring an end to all sanctions against Turkey, paving the way for the sale of the F-35 stealth fighter jet to the alarm of Greece and Israel.
'We are going to be taking the sanctions off; it's time to do that, OK. We don't want to sanction friends; it's very simple,' declared Trump to the international media, sitting next to his host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Trump lifts Turkey sanctions
Trump was referencing the sanctions imposed on Turkey after Ankara acquired the Russian S-400 missile defence system. This move led to Turkey being barred from purchasing the American F-35 stealth fighter. Washington argued the deal jeopardised sensitive technology.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned any sale of F-35 jets to Turkey, warning it would adversely affect the balance of power in the region.
Summit host Turkey eyes major weapons deals with NATO allies
'We are in a crisis between Israel and Turkey,' warns Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies.
'I still would not characterise them as enemy states,' added Lindenstrauss, 'But the threat perception in both countries is growing, and there's a security dilemma evolving between the two countries. What each one thinks it's only doing for its defence is perceived by the other country as offensive.'
Turkey is pushing hard for the immediate delivery of six F-35s it has already paid for. Yet despite Trump's promises, the shadow of Turkey's S-400 missile system purchase still looms large: 'This is not a political decision; that is actually a legal question,' claims Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund.
Unluhisarcikli is referring to the US National Defense Authorization Act, which prohibits the sale of the F-35 until Turkey relinquishes 'possession' of the S-400. 'He (Trump) will, one way or another, need Congress's approval, and this is what Israel and Greece are trying to prevent,' said Unluhisarcikli.
However, Turkish and international media reported on Friday that Ankara will sell the S-400s to the United Arab Emirates. Moscow, which reportedly has a veto on any resale of the missile, has reacted cautiously. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov described the issue as 'extremely sensitive' and said they were in talks with Ankara.
F-35 sale faces resistance
If Ankara manages to sell the S-400, it still faces headwinds in securing the F-35 jet. Netanyahu is reportedly preparing to visit Washington this month, where he's expected to ramp up his campaign against any F-35 sale to Turkey.
The Israeli ambassador in Washington has also been in talks with Greek and Cypriot counterparts, forging a united front against Ankara. Greece and Cyprus share Israel's concerns, having their own disputes with Turkey.
Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a US think tank, predicts a tough fight for Ankara. 'This is about politics, and the politics of Turkey in the US Congress remains sour and not very good,' warns Stein. 'There are vested interest groups — the Israelis, the Greeks and others — who don't want to see an F-35 sale to Turkey and are pushing hard against it.'
Turkey’s mediator role in the Ukraine war faces growing US pressure
Time is also an enemy of Ankara, warns Stein, with looming November Congressional midterm elections. 'Even if you get some movement on this (sale of F-35s), you will probably see a change of power in Congress, with the new government seated in January. So there is no pathway, in my opinion, for the F-35 to get through,' predicts Stein.
Before departing the Nato summit, Trump seemed to soften his stance on the F-35 sale, saying he was inclined to sanction the sale but hadn't totally made up his mind. However, Ankara might be content with Trump's symbolic backing.
'I don't believe that these are mere empty words; they are expressions of political will to find a solution to the S-400 problem and to bring Turkey to the very centre of the transatlantic alliance,' claims analyst Unluhisarcikli. 'In a matter of a couple of years, Turkey moved from its position as being basically contained by both the United States and the European Union, to becoming a key ally for NATO and for Europe's security,' he added.
Greece and Turkey look to revive rapprochement amid Aegean tensions
Erdogan may well savour this symbolic victory, especially since even if the F-35 sale moves forward, experts predict it would take years for the jets to be ready for action due to the need for pilot training and support infrastructure. By that time, Turkey hopes to have its own stealth jet, the Kaan, soaring through the skies.
China recenly test-fired a nuclear-capable missile from a submarine into the Pacific, the first such launch from a nuclear-powered vessel and the first submarine-based test since 1982.
The missile, identified by Taiwan as a JL-2 with a range of some 7,000 kilometres, came down near the Solomon Islands, drawing swift condemnation from Washington even as global attention remains fixed on the war between Israel and Iran.
Analysts see the test as a show of strength aimed at multiple audiences at once: Pacific nations wary of Beijing's growing influence, a United States whose alliances in the region are under strain, and a domestic military establishment as Xi Jinping approaches a pivotal moment in his leadership.
The launch also comes as Chinese and Russian naval forces hold joint exercises off Qingdao, feeding into wider concerns about deepening military cooperation between the two powers.
Submarine missile test puts China's Pacific ambitions on display
In this edition of International Report, RFI speaks to China specialist Michael Dillon of King's College London and Clive Hamilton, author of Hidden Hand, about what the test reveals, and what it means for the balance of power in the Pacific.
Israel's government voted on 28 June to recognise the 1915 Armenian genocide, breaking with decades of official reticence on the issue. RFI spoke to three regional experts to unpack the politics behind the vote and its fallout: Gerald Steinberg, professor at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv; Richard Giragossian, director of the Regional Studies Centre in Yerevan; and Ilter Turan, professor at Bilgi University in Istanbul.
Israel's belated recognition of the Armenian genocide illustrates its deteriorating relationship with Turkey, rather than a reassessment of history, as the real driver behind the timing.
Ankara's hosting of Hamas officials and its criticism of Israel's conduct in Gaza are seen as the backdrop, with the decision viewed in Israeli policy circles as a rebuke to Turkey.
In Yerevan too, the recognition has been met with scepticism, seen as overdue and politically motivated. Still, it is regarded as setting a precedent that will be difficult for any future Israeli government to reverse.
As the move triggered a sharp deterioration in Israel-Azerbaijan relations, the question arises: did Israel score an own goal?
Next week's NATO Summit in Ankara is expected to showcase Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rising influence within the alliance, as he aims to use the gathering to overcome resistance to crucial arms deals and highlight the rapid growth of Turkey’s defence industry.
Boasting NATO’s second-largest army and sharing borders with flashpoints from Ukraine to the Middle East, Turkey is at the heart of the alliance’s future amid doubts about the United States' commitment to European defence.
“It is a paradigm shift,” says international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.
With European and North American leaders attending the summit, on 7 and 8 July, Bagci predicts Erdogan will use the opportunity to cement Turkey’s pivotal role.
“The NATO summit will be a good instrument for Erdogan to show Turkish domestic politics, as well as international politics, that he is one of the medium-power leaders in the world with whom you have to deal."
Europe, Asia driving surge in global military spending: report
Defence deals Major arms deals are expected to make headlines at the summit. US President Donald Trump – attending out of what he calls respect for Erdogan – is not likely to come empty-handed.
"The administration is eager to deliver something to Erdogan," says Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a US-based think tank.
Trump and Erdogan are expected to sign a $700 million deal for the sale of around 80 GE F-110 fighter jet engines. The sale would be a major breakthrough for Ankara in its ambitious Fifth Generation fighter jet project.
“The Kaan fighter jet, Turkey's domestic fighter, is powered at least in the first iteration by the F-110. And so getting these engines would be important for the development of that fighter,” explained Stein.
Ankara is investing billions of euros into the Kaan jet, but without enough engines critics have mockingly called it the world’s priciest glider. Congressional roadblocks, fuelled by influential Israeli and Greek lobbies, have stalled the engine deal, but Trump has vowed to use executive power to push it through.
“Turkey has become a domestic political football in the United States, kicked around,” says Stein. “The administration wants to push forward on these agreements and is willing to use leverage to do it."
Turkey opposition worries that Europe is sacrificing democracy for security
Ankara is also looking to the NATO summit for a breakthrough in its goal to secure the French-Italian SAMP-T anti-missile system. Until now Paris has blocked the sale, but French media has hinted that an agreement could be within reach.
“That would open maybe a new chapter in European-Turkish relations,” says International relations expert Zaur Gasimov of Istanbul’s Turkish German University.
“That would bring key European members of NATO – France, Italy – closer to Turkey. And would maybe forge a new core group within NATO."
Exclusion from SAFE Ankara is using the summit to spotlight Turkey’s booming defence industry, showcasing its cutting-edge weaponry and highly coveted drones, used in conflicts from Ukraine to Africa.
“Turkey has quite a developed field of drone production, which is of paramount importance in modern types of warfare,” explains Gasimov. “So all that makes Turkey a very, very special member of NATO from the point of view of European leaders."
However, Turkish arms sales to Europe face a major hurdle: exclusion from the EU’s €150 billion Safety and Assistance for Europe (SAFE) arms procurement programme. EU members Greece and Cyprus continue to block Turkey’s participation in SAFE due to unresolved disputes in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas.
Turkey expands influence in Africa through military training
Bagci predicts Erdogan will use his meeting with European leaders to try to break this deadlock.
“SAFE is the grand strategic decision of the European Union, so it cannot be stopped or prevented by such a small country like the southern Republic of Cyprus or Greece. The Greeks and the southern Republic of Cyprus, they have to stop or shut up and not prevent [Turkey’s participation in] SAFE," he says.
Turkey is the only country that recognises the Turkish Cypriot administration in Northern Cyprus, refusing to recognise the Republic of Cyprus as the sole sovereign administrator of the island, as international law does.
Turkey's main opposition says its Western allies are failing to respond as a widening crackdown by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government targets its leaders and elected mayors.
The latest arrests this week followed a court decision to remove Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel and reinstate former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in an unprecedented move that was widely condemned by Turkish and international human rights groups.
The European Union's response has been far more restrained.
"There are some visits, there are some letters sent to us," said Ilhan Uzgel, the CHP's former deputy chair. "There are some public statements regarding the situation in Turkey, but the wording and language used is quite mild. [There's] no action."
The CHP has faced more than a year of arrests targeting its mayors on corruption charges. This week, two more were detained, adding to a list that already includes jailed Istanbul mayor and presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu.
HRW denounces Turkey arrests ahead of NATO summit
Strategic partner Uzgel said the European Union can no longer stand by and should take a firmer stance.
"Mr Erdogan has to be told, 'you're destroying democracy and what you're doing is against the rule of law,'" said Uzgel.
"There could be some kind of a diplomatic isolation," he added. "So whenever Mr Erdogan meets a foreign leader, he's selling it to his own audience, the Turkish public, that he's a world leader. At least this opportunity could be taken from his hand."
Yet Erdogan is expected to reinforce his international standing at next month's Nato summit in Ankara.
"The two big allies of Turkey have decided not to make human rights an issue in the bilateral relationship," said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. She notes that the EU and Washington have found rare common ground over Turkey.
"For President Trump, this comes naturally; he doesn't care about human rights advancement globally," she said. "But now Europeans are also looking for some type of functional relationship with Turkey and wanting to disregard human rights as an impediment to bilateral relations."
Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner
Federico Donelli, an international relations expert at the University of Trieste, said the European Union's restrained response reflected Turkey's growing strategic importance.
"The restraint of EU reaction is closely linked to an increase in recognition of Turkey's structural importance for European security."
With Nato's second-largest army and a rapidly expanding defence industry, Turkey is increasingly seen as an important security partner as Europe faces the threat from Russia and uncertainty over the United States' long-term commitment.
"The US is definitely less stable than in the past, so in this context Turkey is increasingly seen less as a [EU] candidate country and more as a strategic partner," said Donelli.
Pressure on Greece and Cyprus Donelli said this shift could increase pressure on Greece and Cyprus, which have long used their vetoes to slow closer EU defence ties with Turkey because of disputes in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean.
"We know how much the two countries have conditioned EU-Turkey relations for many years," said Donelli.
"These two countries cannot constrain broader EU strategic choices in the next few years, in the next decade."
Amid the Russian threat and uncertainty over America's resolve, Turkey's opposition worries it is being sacrificed in the name of Europe's security.
"Historically, Turkish EU relations were working for the democratisation of Turkey, but the equation has been reversed. The EU-Turkey ties have been working against Turkey's democratisation," said Uzgel. "The closer Mr Erdogan gets to the EU, [the more] we are losing democracy in Turkey."
He nonetheless warned that Europe's approach is short-sighted and could have wider consequences.
"Turkey is a country of 86 million, so if democracy fails here, it has to have some implications for other countries as well."
Ten years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Brexit supporters still see this as a historic act of sovereignty, while critics point to the resulting economic damage and political division.
This week RFI examines the legacy of the 2016 Brexit referendum through the sharply contrasting views of three analysts: Federico Fabbrini of the Brexit Institute in Dublin, Robert Oulds of the London-based pro-Brexit Bruges Group, and John Barry of Queen’s University Belfast.
Their assessment reveals a country still deeply divided over what Brexit has achieved, what it has cost and what it means for the UK's future relationship with Europe.
For Brexit supporters, the desired "control" has been achieved. For its opponents, the economic consequences and divided political landscape loom ever larger.
Between those positions lies a complex reality shaped by trade, immigration, Northern Ireland and the much vaunted idea of “Global Britain”.
Ten years on, the UK's decision to leave the European Union is increasingly seen as more than a single referendum result. Critics argue it reflected a wider crisis of political imagination, with Brexit supporters misreading both Britain and the world, while the promised future never arrived.
The referendum held on 23 June 2016 remains one of the defining decisions in modern British history. Supporters promised sovereignty, control, lower red tape, new trade deals and a more dynamic “Global Britain”.
Critics are unequivocal that Brexit has left Britain poorer, weaker and less able to deal with global shocks 10 years after voters chose to leave the European Union.
Opponents argue that many of those promises have not been met. Britain is more constrained, less attractive to investors and still divided over what Brexit was supposed to mean.
Nevertheless, the vote marked the moment Britain “changed track”, Colin Hay, professor of political science at Sciences Po in Paris, tells RFI.
“Its relationship with the European Union and its relationship with the rest of the world has changed fundamentally from this moment onwards,” Hay said. “And 10 years on, we can see that very clearly now.”
Two years after Brexit 'got done', poll shows many Britons want new referendum
A changed Britain Brexit is hard to judge as a normal policy decision, Hay argues, because voters were asked to choose a direction without knowing what form leaving the EU would eventually take.
“People didn’t know what the Brexit that they were voting for, if they voted for it, would turn out to be, and now they can see, and there’s a certain amount of buyer’s remorse, I think,” Hay says.
One of the strongest attacks on Brexit has come recently from Michael Heseltine, the former Conservative deputy prime minister, who called it a “self-imposed disaster” and a “con”. He also said those who sold it should “hang their heads in shame”.
For Hay, Heseltine was pointing to a real problem in British politics – especially the way Europe moved from a low-profile issue to the central question shaping political life.
“The question of Britain’s relationship to Europe was – until UKIP came along and until the Brexit referendum – a relatively low salience issue,” Hay said. “Since 2016 and since the campaign, it has been the single dominant issue, which has influenced everything else.”
That change helped Nigel Farage, UKIP and later Reform UK become powerful forces in British politics, while also damaging the Conservative Party.
'Rogue state' UK stands by new Brexit legislation which breaks international law
Economic costs The economic impact of UK's departure from the European Union is now clearer than it was at the time of the referendum, Hay tells RFI, though he adds that Brexit cannot be separated entirely from the other shocks Britain has faced over the past 10 years.
“I think it’s as clear as it could be, but there’s a caveat in that, and that is that a lot’s happened in Britain over the last 10 years, lots happened in the world over the last 10 years, and to identify and to isolate the Brexit effect is actually quite tricky,” he says.
The Bank of England has tried to measure the impact, estimating “a drop of 6 percent of GDP lost, as it were, to Brexit”.
But the wider cost may be greater because Brexit also affected Britain’s ability to deal with later crises, including Covid and the Ukraine war, he argues.
Five years on, has Brexit put Britain at a disadvantage in EU talks?
“Britain is less well placed to deal with those shocks and challenges today than it would otherwise have been in the absence of Brexit,” Hay continues.
The idea of a newly liberated “Global Britain” was always weak, because the UK already had many favourable trade terms through its EU membership.
“I think the idea of a kind of new ‘Global Britain’ liberated from Europe was always a bit of a myth, frankly,” Hay says.
The promise of “Singapore-on-Thames” also failed to deliver. Britain was already a relatively lightly regulated European economy and had long been highly deregulated in financial services.
“There’s been a marginal move in the direction of light regulation, but it’s not really achieved any positive gain for the British economy overall,” Hay said.
Countdown to Brexit: Polls predict Leave campaign wins
Campaign arguments However, the Leave campaign was highly effective in attacking warnings from economists, diplomats, businesses and officials with “Project Fear”.
That tactic weakened the role of evidence in the debate, while the Leave side also used the promise that Brexit would free up money for the National Health Service.
“I think the Brexit campaign was most effective in a sense, because it was able to discredit and disable any evidence, any expertise that was brought on the remain side of the debate to the table,” Hay says.
The campaign, led in part by Farage and his populist message, encouraged voters to reject not only the EU but also “the form of expert technocratic governance associated with that”, he argues.
At the same time, Leave campaigners used a simple financial promise.
“They plastered a big number on big red buses and implied that a vote for Brexit would liberate the public finances and allow high levels of investment in the NHS, amongst other things,” Hay says.
The result did not match that promise, he adds.
EU and UK clash in first post-Brexit legal battle over North Sea fishing ban
“Anyone who’s tried to be treated in a British hospital in the 10 years since 2016 knows that that didn’t turn out very well,” Hay says.
Brexit supporters often argue that the vote was not mainly about economics but about sovereignty and control. Farage and others have also claimed that Brexit failed because it was never properly implemented.
Hay explains that argument was easy to make and had been repeated since Theresa May’s time as prime minister, when she faced pressure to deliver a harder and more economically costly form of Brexit.
But public opinion has shifted over the past decade.
“I think the argument that Brexit was not properly implemented, and that’s why it’s not turned out as well as it could have done, has not particularly been accepted by the public,” says Hay.
Around 20 to 30 percent of those who voted for Brexit would now vote remain if given the chance again, he estimates.
Burnham wins key UK poll, paving way for bid to challenge PM Starmer
Uncertain future Meanwhile, Keir Starmer’s government has been trying to rebuild bridges with the EU while avoiding a return to the divisions of the Brexit years.
The debate inside Labour is also becoming more complex, with questions over how far any future leader could go in rebuilding Britain’s relationship with the EU.
For Hay, Britain’s uncertainty 10 years after Brexit is closely tied to economic weakness.
“It’s much easier to be confident about Britain if it has a stronger economy,” he says.
“The Labour administration assumed it would have more fiscal space to do positive things every single time it looks at the books,” Hay said. “It finds there’s no money in the coffer, and if there’s no money in the coffer there’s not much you can do.”
Ten years after the vote, Brexit remains more than a question of treaties, borders and trade. It is also a question of what Britain was promised, what was delivered and how much control the country really gained.
Lebanon is emerging as the newest flashpoint in the increasingly strained relations between Turkey and Israel, with the former's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issuing a stark warning that Turkish security begins in Beirut.
Earlier this month, Erdogan addressed his parliamentary deputies with a forceful condemnation of Israel’s strikes on Lebanon and Syria, warning that Turkey’s security now stretches beyond its borders, reaching as far as Damascus and Beirut.
Tensions between Israel and Turkey have been steadily escalating, with Erdogan vocally supporting Hamas and leading the chorus of condemnation against Israel’s military campaigns in both Gaza and Lebanon.
“Lebanon is a new area of competition or dispute between Israel and Turkey," says Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies think tank.
“There was definitely concern in Israel after hearing Erdogan's speech. The fact that he speaks about Syria and Lebanon as part of Turkey's security is, of course, a problem for Israel….I think this adds complexity to already a very tense relationship between Israel and Turkey."
Shifting influence In recent years, Turkey has quietly but steadily expanded its soft-power presence in Lebanon, dispatching aid and broadening the reach of its humanitarian groups.
This comes as Iran’s influence in the region loosens, signalled by the collapse of the Tehran-backed Assad regime in Syria and growing pressure on Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“Turkey is concerned about Lebanon because it can create new venues of Israeli zone of influence, when the power of Iran is on the decline,” said international relations professor Ozlem Tur, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.
Tur notes that Turkey is eager to seize the opportunities created by these shifting dynamics: “Turkey feels a vacuum of power – and who is going to fill it? And all of this is part of a larger geo-strategic position that Turkey wants to put itself in."
Turkey expands influence in Africa through military training
Erdogan has frequently accused Israel of trying to assert dominance across the region, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, which is believed to hold vast untapped energy reserves.
Ankara suspects Israeli influence was behind Lebanon’s November 2025 landmark maritime demarcation deal with Cyprus, paving the way for potential exploration of offshore gas fields and energy cooperation in the Mediterranean – a deal Turkey argues undermines its interests, as well as those of the Turkish Cypriot administration and Syria.
“Lebanon joining the competition there is of course worrying [for Ankara]”, Tur added. "This maritime dimension adds to an already competitive environment, and it makes Lebanon a partner in this competition."
Trump card Meanwhile, Turkey-Israel rivalries continue to escalate.
“The Israelis, especially the hard-liners, have been really working hard to get the United States on board with their plans to take Turkey as their next target,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
However, Guvenc suggests that Erdogan retains a trump card. so to speak.
"The personal rapport between the two leaders, Trump and Erdogan, has been an impediment to the materialisation of such American backing to whatever plan Israelis might have in regard to Turkey."
Trump’s recent criticism of Israel’s bombing of Beirut and Israel’s ongoing attacks on Lebanon after a peace agreement with Iran, will likely further strengthen Erdogan's hand with Trump, at a time when Washington is increasingly viewing Ankara as key to its regional goals.
Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner
“For stability, for mediation, for assistance... in these aspects definitely the US is looking for Ankara and looking for the role Ankara can play in relaxing tensions in the region,” said Lindenstrauss. "But Ankara itself is raising tensions and, of course, Erdogan's inflammatory rhetoric to Israel is not stabilising anything.”
Trump is set to visit Ankara for next month’s NATO summit, where Turkey’s regional role will likely dominate discussions between US and Turkish leaders – a meeting poised to deepen Israel’s unease and growing sense of isolation.
Nikol Pashinyan’s sweeping re-election in Armenia has raised fresh hopes that the border with Turkey could finally reopen after three decades of closure. The Armenian prime minister campaigned on restoring ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as moving Armenia closer to Europe – but constitutional reform remains a major obstacle.
The vote on 7 June gave Nikol Pashinyan a clear victory over the opposition. But his success could prove bittersweet after he fell short of the parliamentary majority needed to change the constitution.
Changing the constitution is part of Pashinyan’s peace efforts with Azerbaijan, brokered last year by United States President Donald Trump.
“This government is committed to passing what the Armenian opposition would refer to as 'the Aliyev referendum',” said Eric Hacopian, a Yerevan-based political consultant.
“The problem is, now they have no votes to bring it up because you need to get a two-thirds vote to change the constitution.”
Armenia PM Pashinyan wins vote, cementing pro-Western shift
Constitutional hurdles On the back of the Washington peace talks, “Armenia and Azerbaijan had an understanding that, after the election in Armenia, there would be certain constitutional amendments”, explained Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
Baku insists Armenia must remove claims to Nagorno-Karabakh from the preamble to its constitution.
The two countries have clashed repeatedly over the contested territory. In 2023, Azerbaijan retook the breakaway enclave, causing more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee.
“We are looking forward to Armenia completely eliminating elements of its territorial claims,” Hajiyev said. “Then we will not have any stumbling blocks or hurdles on our agenda to move forward.”
Constitutional reform is also seen as important for normalising Armenia’s ties with Turkey, according to Hajiyev.
“It's not directly linked, but indirectly,” he said. “Once the Azerbaijan-Armenia agenda is solved, then Turkey will also act in a synchronised manner, opening the borders and also establishing a closer relationship.”
Armenia election: what the vote could mean for Russia, the West and Azerbaijan
Border hopes Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993, siding with Azerbaijan after ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence and seized Azerbaijani lands.
Efforts to restore ties are now gathering pace, said Zeynep Alemdar, an international relations professor at Dogus University in Istanbul.
“They've already declared in May 2026 that the border is going to be opened up, and all the bureaucratic, paperwork-type obstacles are actually being dismantled,” Alemdar said, noting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is believed to get on well with Pashinyan.
Pashinyan’s Turkey visit signals new chapter as Ankara eyes Caucasus shift
But energy-rich Azerbaijan remains crucial to Ankara, Alemdar said.
“Economically, comparing Azerbaijan versus Armenia for Ankara, of course Azerbaijan always wins... Of course Azerbaijan is going to be more influential,” Alemdar said.
Erdogan congratulated Pashinyan on his re-election, while the Turkish foreign ministry urged Yerevan in a statement to embrace “bold reforms” – seen by many as a call for constitutional change.
Cautious steps Pashinyan’s lack of decisive parliamentary support and uncertainty over a possible referendum mean Ankara’s role could be important in securing lasting peace, said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center think tank in Yerevan.
“For Turkey this is a slow, gradual process of retaking the initiative with Armenia, away from Azerbaijan,” Giragosian said.
“Because in many ways, at every round it's been the Azerbaijan factor that's the key determinant. And according to sources in Ankara, they only have a yellow light of caution from Azerbaijan – it's not a red light, but it's not yet a green light to proceed.”
Reopening the Turkish-Armenian border would be welcomed by the European Union and Washington, as Ankara seeks to deepen its ties with both. But with Azerbaijan acting as a major investor and economic lifeline, Turkey is moving cautiously to avoid upsetting its powerful neighbour.
As Armenians vote in a parliamentary election seen as a test of Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-Western course, RFI asks two regional experts what the result could mean for peace with Azerbaijan and relations with Russia.
Eight years after the street revolution that brought him to power, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is asking voters for a fresh mandate built around the promise of lasting peace with Azerbaijan and a reduced dependence on Russia.
His opponents say he has conceded too much to Baku and damaged Armenia’s traditional alliance with Moscow.
To understand what is at stake, RFI spoke to Joshua Kucera, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, and Richard Giragossian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan.
Turkey is expanding its military training programmes across Africa, with soldiers from Mali and Niger graduating from a special forces camp as Ankara seeks to deepen ties across the continent.
The soldiers completed training this month at Turkey's special forces camp in Isparta. The approach, known as the "Somalia model" after Turkey's largest overseas base, has become central to Ankara's strategy in Africa.
"The Somalia model is one of the Turkish military ideas to educate, train certain African states that are very much interested in military cooperation with Turkey," said Huseyin Bagci, an international relations professor at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.
"Turkey has done it to Central Asian countries in the 90s, in the 2000s. So now the African is on the line, and this is the new development and is good for Turkey."
Turkey has signed more than 20 military training cooperation deals across Africa in recent years.
Turkey courts Libya's rival factions in bid to further Mediterranean ambitions
Growing ties "Somalia and Libya are central where Turkey does have training bases," said Nebahat Tanriverdi Yasar, a defence expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"But also, we are seeing growing ties with Sahelian countries, especially Niger, Mali, Nigeria."
Turkey sees military training as a cost-effective way to increase its influence in Africa.
"It is a relatively low-cost way to present itself in sensitive theaters, with fewer operational costs and risk of direct intervention. So in a way, those relations serve as a tool for defense diplomacy," Yasar said.
Turkey has moved swiftly to capitalise on the vacuum left by France's retreating military and fading diplomatic sway in West Africa and the Sahel. Meanwhile, African nations increasingly view Turkey as a counterweight to the rising influence of Russia and China.
Turkey expands military footprint in Somalia as regional rivalries intensify
Libya's role Turkey's training of Libyan forces linked to rival administrations also serves European interests because Libya has become a crucial gateway for people smugglers heading into Europe, said Aya Burweilla, a Libya expert at the Athens-based Center for Hellenic and Mediterranean Studies.
"Libya with an army that can secure its borders is good for Europe, too," Burweilla said.
"Libya has two seas, one in the desert and one on the Mediterranean. And you need a properly organized army that can keep the border safe."
Turkey's military training programmes are also helping the country's booming defence industry.
"If you train them, they should use Turkish weapons; this is very normal. When you look at the export of Turkish arms to the world, you see mostly to African countries," said Bagci.
Turkey's growing defence ties are helping to bring African military and political leaders to industry events in Turkey.
"It is not easy to make business, of course, with African countries, with the military leaders there, it is not easy. But when you look at military fairs in Istanbul, you see how many African countries' military and political leaders visit," Bagci said.
Turkey boosts Mali defence ties after separatist and jihadist attacks
Defence links Turkish arms sales, such as military drones now found across Africa, often include extensive training, intelligence sharing and diplomatic engagement.
Training junior officers in countries like Somalia, some destined to become future generals, could also help Turkey build long-term relationships, said Omar Mahmood, East Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group.
"You invest in the up and coming of the Somali security force, and you'll have some sort of long-standing ties going forward," Mahmood said.
"Some of them are trained in the Turkish language as well, so that creates these sorts of bonds. So, absolutely, I think that's part of their strategic plan. It kind of shows a longer-term vision as well."
Turkey's main opposition CHP was thrown into fresh disarray Saturday as court-installed leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu made his first visit to party headquarters since a controversial court ruling scrapped a 2023 party primary. Ozgur Ozel, the CHP leader ousted by the decision, called for an urgent congress, telling thousands at an Ankara rally that the party "cannot be run by an appointed leader".
The 21 May court ruling has plunged the CHP, Turkey's oldest political party, into a crisis.
Three days after the order, riot police forced their way into the party's headquarters in Ankara, armed with pepper spray and batons, to remove CHP leader Ozgur Ozel – a key rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The court said Ozel's 2023 election as party leader was marred by irregularities, and restored the former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
In Turkey, elections are overseen by the Supreme Election Council, which certified Ozel’s win, and its rulings are constitutionally final.
It is just the latest move against the CHP, which scored a major victory over Erdogan's ruling AKP in the 2024 local elections and has since gained ground in the polls.
Party primary Kilicdaroglu visited that party headquarters on Saturday to mark the final day of Eid, with a photo shared by his team on social media showing him seated at his desk with a copy of the party's bylaws placed prominently in front of him.
"I will bring a ballot box for party congress before you as soon as possible," Kilicdaroglu said in an address, without providing a precise date.
Ozel renewed his challenge to Kilicdaroglu to contest a party primary, saying he was willing to run "with whatever delegates he wants".
With crowds chanting "Traitor Kemal!", Ozel said the party congress must be held "immediately", urging Kilicdaroglu to "hold a congress at once, with whichever delegates you wish. Give the party an elected leader without delay. The CHP does not accept appointments."
He also demanded a primary election, saying that he would give up the party leadership if he received less than 85 percent support.
Turkey expert Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at United States think tank, the Middle East Institute told RFI that Kilicdaroglu is "a convenient opponent for [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, because he "lost every major election during his 13 years at the helm of the party."
Turkey riot police use tear gas to take opposition party HQ
'A broader campaign' Ozel, 51, was elected leader at a party convention after 77-year-old Kilicdaroglu lost the 2023 presidential election. Ozel has revitalized the CHP, which now leads many opinion polls. Tol suggests Ozel's removal is part of a wider campaign.
"This is the latest step in Erdogan's broader campaign to weaken the opposition," said Tol.
“Last March, in another unprecedented move, authorities jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu – he is Erdogan's top political rival. And since then, the government has systematically targeted CHP mayors through court cases and corruption investigations,” she added.
Crackdown on Turkish opposition intensifies, with further arrests of mayors
Addressing protesters, Ozel vowed to flood the streets and squares in defiance of what he calls a judicial coup, while also appealing his removal.
Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, is promising to restore order to the party and cleanse it of “corrupting forces”.
The government insists the judiciary is independent and denies any political agenda.
Erdogan has remained silent on the issue. Still, some observers see the opposition’s upheaval as part of Erdogan’s grander vision for Turkey’s future.
Political commentator Sezin Oney from independent Turkish media outlet Politikyol notes that Erdogan is eager to shape the post-Erdogan era.
"He wants to design the succession, most probably to have a close family member replacing him. So he wants to shape the whole [political] terrain accordingly."
'Opposition psyche' Erdogan has ruled Turkish politics for almost 25 years, buoyed by both his political acumen and a fragmented opposition.
But in the past year, Ozel’s energetic leadership has powered over 100 mass rallies nationwide, even in Erdogan’s strongholds, as Ozel taps into rising public frustration over crackdowns on dissent and skyrocketing food prices.
The removal of Ozel as CHP leader is seen as a pivotal moment for Turkish democracy.
“Turkey is moving closer to a Russia-style system where the leader decides who the opposition will be and ensures no real surprise can emerge at the ballot box,” predicts Tol. “Why is Erdogan taking such a massive political and economic risk? Erdogan knows he cannot win genuinely free and fair elections anymore."
With Erdogan enjoying close ties with US President Donald Trump and the European Union increasingly looking to Turkey as a security partner, under the looming Russian threat, international reaction has been muted over the latest move against the opposition.
Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner
Speaking to tens of thousands of people at a rally in Izmir on Tuesday, Ozel vowed to escalate protests. Rumours are swirling that he could launch a new party.
One opinion poll found only 11 percent of respondents approved of the removal of Ozel. Yet the legal noose appears to be tightening, with reports suggesting his parliamentary immunity could be stripped and that he may soon join other top party members behind bars.
“We don't have the opposition in political representation form, but the people are there. The opposition psyche of the people is still there. So you cannot absolutely nullify the people or their political views,” said Oney.
“We don't know what's going to come out of it. We can make predictions, but it's something totally novel and new in Turkey, and Turkish history as well."
In a bold move by Ankara, Turkey this week brought together Libya’s two rival militaries for international exercises. While firmly supporting the Tripoli-based regime, Turkey is now extending an olive branch to the Benghazi administration, aiming to steady Libya and broaden its sway across the region.
For the first time, Libya’s two military forces participated internationally together under one flag. According to the Turkish defence ministry, 501 personnel from both Libyan armies joined Turkey’s Efes 2026 military exercises.
“There needs to be one unified army in Libya, one unified military force,” said Libya expert Aya Burweila of the Athens-based Centre for Hellenic and Mediterranean Studies. “I think these joint exercises help with that. They help facilitate closer cooperation with both sides, and that can only be a good thing.”
Libya has been split since 2014, with the Government of National Unity ruling the west from Tripoli and the Government of National Stability holding the east in Benghazi. While Ankara has long championed Tripoli, analyst Burweila suggests that May’s joint exercises signal a new Turkish push to engage with Benghazi.
“This is a huge, practical pivot towards the east [by Turkey]. It has huge implications for Libya’s stability. Turkey’s position now is that it has good relations with both sides,” said Burweila. “It’s not just joint military exercises. There are business interests, there are sales of weapons and drones, and so forth.”
Turkey and Italy boost cooperation in bid to shape Libya’s political future
Energy reserves For Ankara, courting the Benghazi administration, led by military commander Khalifa Haftar, is all about expanding Turkey’s influence in the eastern Mediterranean, argues Jalel Harchaoui of the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defence think tank.
Harchaoui said Ankara needs Haftar’s support to enforce a 2019 memorandum of understanding that Turkey signed with the Tripoli administration to create a joint exclusive economic zone in Libyan waters.
“Now, if Ankara wants to enforce it, which it does, it needs to have the Haftar family on board,” Harchaoui explained.
“The Haftar family can deliver on two very necessary things: the parliamentary ratification, because the parliament happens to be controlled by the Haftar family, and also the part of the coast that is involved in this arrangement is eastern Libya, not western Libya.”
However, the Turkey-Libya exclusive economic zone, believed to have large untapped energy reserves, is strongly opposed by Greece and Cyprus, who claim it violates their territorial waters. Neighbouring Egypt and Israel have also voiced concerns.
Haftar’s eastern Libyan government shares their reluctance.
“Eastern Libya has very good relations with Egypt and has cordial relations with Greece as well. And this memorandum, at least from their side, violates their rights,” explained Libya analyst Burweila.
She added: “I think what lots of Libyans feel is: 'this fight is not our fight. We don't want to be involved in this kind of dispute.' So while this is a big priority for Turkey, it is not a priority for Libyans, and I think everybody there would prefer to kick this can down the road.”
Egypt and Turkey's closer ties spark hope for peace among Libya’s rival factions
Carrot and stick Throughout 2025, Ankara wooed Haftar and his son Saddam, chief of staff of the Libyan National Army, but saw little progress.
According to analyst Harchaoui, Turkey has since toughened its stance, zeroing in on Haftar’s late-year military backing of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Turkish-made combat drones have been pictured on airbases in southern Egypt, which like Turkey backs the Sudanese army in its fight against the paramilitary RSF. According to a New York Times investigation, they have been used for strikes in Sudan.
“This was a new development,” said Harchaoui, “It was basically Turkey saying, 'I smiled for most of 2025, and you did nothing for me. And you will have seen two faces. You will have seen the carrot, obviously, but also the stick.'”
In April, Turkey delivered a new batch of military drones to Haftar’s army, continuing this carrot-and-stick policy.
The Turkish defence ministry says it aims to hold further joint military exercises with both Libyan armies. While Turkey is stepping up its efforts to stabilise Libya, its goal of securing joint control of a huge swathe of the eastern Mediterranean threatens to drag the country further into an increasingly bitter regional rivalry.
Turkey’s role in Somalia is under growing scrutiny, with the East African country embroiled in controversy over elections and Israel stepping up efforts to challenge Turkey in the region.
Over the last two years Turkey has ramped up its economic and military presence in Somalia, building on decades of development. The East African country is home to Turkey’s largest overseas military base and this year it bolstered its military presence, deploying F16 fighter jets and tanks.
Turkey is also constructing a space port for its rapidly advancing missile programme, and the two countries have signed agreements to exploit potentially vast energy reserves.
But the deepening partnership is proving increasingly controversial, says Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group.
While five or 10 years ago there would have been "quite high praise" for Turkey's role, that's changed over the last two years. "Some of these [Turkish] contracts and projects have tipped into [a much] greater scale and that has raised questions" he noted.
Turkey boosts Mali defence ties after separatist and jihadist attacks
Election dispute A looming constitutional crisis is adding to the scrutiny of Turkey’s role in Somalia. The Somali government is insisting it has one year left of its electoral mandate, while the opposition claims elections should be held in May.
"The core issue is that the political elite are infighting about the system,” explains Mahmood. “So anytime that happens, those who are against the government wind up complaining and then also looking at who is supporting the Somali government."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authorisation of $30 million in cash aid to the Somali government, which coincided with an April visit to Istanbul by his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, drew criticism from both the Somali and Turkish opposition.
Famine looms in Somalia amid drought, dwindling aid and Middle East war
“Turkey providing cash aid to the Somali government sparked the debate,” said African studies professor Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, of the Social Sciences University of Ankara.
“It seems some people think Turkey supports the ruling government, and provides support to the ruling government because they benefit from the relationship.”
Ankara has strongly refuted accusations of interference in Somali politics. However, it could be paying the price for being too focused on Mogadishu in the past, given the diverse nature of Somalia's regions.
“Turkey has started to learn from its mistakes,” said Tepeciklioglu. “They have started to increase their involvement with different states, with different regions, and have started to increase their engagement with local people as well.”
Rivalry in the region Turkey is also facing a growing challenge in the region from Israel, which in April appointed an ambassador to Somaliland – becoming the first country to recognise the breakaway republic, which seceded from Somalia in 1991.
“It’s been useful probably for [Israel] to assert themselves against Turkey in an area where Turkey has firmly planted its flag,” said Norman Ricklefs of geopolitical consultancy, the NAMEA Group.
Israeli-Turkish relations remain strained over Ankara’s support of Hamas and Israel’s war against Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli government has indicated it is considering a military presence in Somaliland, to counter the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen.
“I don't think we're at that stage yet,” said Ricklefs. "But any Israeli military presence in Somaliland is going to raise angst amongst the neighbours – Somalia, Egypt, Turkey and potentially Saudi Arabia. Obviously, it's going to be destabilising.”
The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland
The Horn of Africa could be a potential new flashpoint if Israel deploys military assets in Somaliland, agrees international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
"The potential for conflict between Israel and Turkey is really high, because they're pursuing diametrically opposed objectives. If relations further deteriorate, then we may see tensions running high between the two countries because they would be in almost physical contact. Their military assets may run the risk of having dangerous encounters with each other."
Israeli-Turkish rivalry in the region threatens to exacerbate existing tensions in an already volatile area. For Turkey, which has invested more than €1 billion in development in Somalia over the past decade, and is also eyeing major financial returns from its energy exploration in Somalian waters, the stakes are high.
Ankara has voiced alarm at Cyprus’s announcement that France will deploy soldiers on the Mediterranean island. The move has fuelled Turkish fears of encirclement, as Cyprus and Greece continue to deepen defence ties with Turkey’s rival Israel.
Turkish officials have strongly criticised France’s plan to send soldiers to Cyprus, warning it could escalate tensions.
Cyprus has remained divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded following a coup backed by Greece. The north is governed by a Turkish Cypriot administration recognised only by Turkey.
Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides stated that the French deployment is part of a Status of Forces Agreement to be signed in June.
France increased its military support, sending forces to the area after Iranian missiles targeted the island. But Ankara sees the move as part of a growing rivalry with Paris.
“Turkey and France are geopolitical rivals. They have been competing with each other in Africa and the eastern Mediterranean,” explains international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
“France is inclined to view Turkey as a potential revisionist power, pursuing hegemonic aspirations in the region,” he said, adding that Cyprus is a small island and a concentration of military power without unified command could lead to unwanted escalation.
Cyprus’s EU presidency: seeking resilience in a new world order
Christodoulides downplayed Turkish concerns, stating that any French deployment would serve “humanitarian purposes".
However, former Cypriot ambassador Euripides Evriviades argues that Turkey’s military presence is the primary security threat in Cyprus.
“These things are happening because we feel very insecure – it is 40,000 Turkish troops on the island in an aggressive posture,” said Evriviades. “The insecurity on the island stems directly from the continued occupation and violations of human rights that come with any occupation."
French backing Macron’s support for Cyprus echoes his strong backing of Greece. During a recent visit to Athens, he said there was “no room for doubt” about France’s military support for Greece against any threats, a statement widely interpreted as being aimed at Turkey.
France’s increased support for Greece and Cyprus coincides with Athens and Nicosia strengthening security ties with Israel.
Cyprus urges EU to agree plan for defence of member states ahead of summit
“The Cyprus problem is no longer the Cyprus problem per se, but has become a part of the wider geopolitical rivalries in the region,” said Guvenc.
Turkish-Israeli relations remain tense, with both sides viewing each other as a threat. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that the alignment of Cyprus, Israel and Greece is an attempt to “encircle Turkey".
Ankara fears that such a military alliance could be used to advance Greek and Cypriot claims over the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, where Turkey and Greece have multiple territorial disputes.
“If they combine their military and naval capabilities, they may attempt to deny Turkey access to the Eastern Mediterranean. So this is a danger,” said Guvenc.
Cycle of distrust The upcoming Washington summit involving Greece, Cyprus and Israel is likely to intensify Ankara’s concerns about isolation.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara, warns that the region is caught in a growing cycle of distrust, and any new military deployment to Cyprus is likely to prompt a reciprocal response.
“Turkey could make new deployments, drones, even fighter jets,” he said.
Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner
Unluhisarcikli also cautions that renewed tensions over Cyprus are a dangerous distraction from the ongoing Russian threat.
“At a time when the transatlantic community at large is facing much larger external threats, NATO allies should not be posturing against each other, and that's what we are seeing. This is unacceptable."
“The risk of a real confrontation is very limited, but it will lead both sides to double down on their current positions,” he added.
Turkey, which has the second-largest army in NATO, is viewed by some in the European Union as a potential answer to concerns about the United States’ commitment to Europe's defence amid the ongoing Russian threat.
However, renewed tensions over Cyprus may undermine these expectations.
Turkey’s efforts to expand its influence in West Africa could be threatened by attacks on Mali’s military regime, as Ankara pledges support while its growing security cooperation with Bamako faces new pressure.
Ankara has strongly condemned attacks by Tuareg separatists and Al Qaeda-linked jihadists on Mali’s military government. The attacks began last weekend, killed the defence minister and handed over control of key territory.
Turkey has built ties with Mali over the past two decades, but since Mali’s military rulers took power in 2021, that relationship has shifted sharply towards security.
“Since 2010, that expansion has been much more rapid,” said Professor Sedat Aybar, director of the Asia Pacific Africa Studies Centre at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul.
“It starts on humanitarian grounds and then evolves toward economic cooperation, followed by security and military aid, and capacity building for the Malian military, particularly against terrorist activities in the north.”
Russia vows to keep forces in Mali despite warning from separatists to withdraw
Security expansion Turkey has signed several security and defence agreements with Mali’s military rulers, mainly focused on training and logistics. Defence sales have also increased, including advanced Turkish drones.
Turkey’s role has grown as Mali sought new security partners after expelling French forces in 2022. Russia remains Mali’s main security partner, but Turkey is becoming more important as Bamako seeks to reduce dependence on Moscow.
“We did see the late defense minister [Sadio Camara] going to Ankara on several occasions to sign bilateral agreements, but also to acquire drones and other equipment that would support the Malian army,” said Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risks, a global risk consultancy.
Turkish firms have sold Mali advanced drones, including the Akinci, she said, adding that Russian paramilitary forces in Mali have also acquired equipment through Turkey,
“It's also by proxy, because the Russian paramilitaries, they have been acquiring equipment on their own behalf, but also for the Malian army via Turkey,” Ochieng said.
Malian official accuses Russian forces of 'betrayal' after Kidal falls to rebels
Regional ambitions Turkey’s expanding security role in Mali is part of a broader Sahel strategy that also includes Burkina Faso and Niger.
“Not just Mali, but the Sahel is very important. Cooperation with Burkina Faso and Niger is very important too,” said Melis Ozdemir, a PhD candidate at Galatasaray University studying Turkish-Malian relations.
The military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all of which cut defence ties with France, have opened new opportunities for Turkish diplomacy and defence exports.
“It's given Turkey a chance to increase its footprint, not just politically or diplomatically, but also it can show its military power, its drones, and its new military vehicles and equipment,” said Ozdemir.
“I think Turkey is also testing its own military equipment in these regions.”
Direct Turkish military intervention in Mali appears unlikely, Aybar said, but Ankara could still send military advisers if requested.
“Nigeria requested Turkish military advisors to enhance Nigeria's capacity to fight Boko Haram, the terrorist organization in Nigeria, so Turkey is engaged in doing this,” said Aybar.
“If the Malian government invites Turkey to do a similar thing in Mali, then Turkey will consider sending in experts and advisers to the military in Mali.”
Turkey is also offering diplomatic support.
“There could be a route through negotiations,” said Ochieng.
“Turkey is one of the middle powers that is also trying to look for dynamic ways of resolving conflict. It’s not just within the Sahel, but you've seen them try to be involved in the DR Congo, calling for dialogue between the warring parties,” Ochieng said.
“Ankara and Istanbul have also become a point where armed groups are able to hold talks and to find mediated ways out of political and security crises."
As radiation spread across Europe in April 1986, so did the truth about a political system built on silence. Four decades on, RFI spoke to history and politics professor Oleg Kobtzeff about how the Chernobyl nuclear disaster exposed the USSR's culture of secrecy, and was among the catalysts for its collapse.
On 26 April, 1986, a reactor exploded at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in what was then the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, sending a radioactive cloud drifting across Europe. For days, the Soviet Union said nothing.
But as radiation alarms sounded in Scandinavia and the truth seeped out, the disaster became something bigger than an industrial accident. It pulled back the curtain on a system built on secrecy – and, some argue, helped bring that system crashing down.
Four decades on, the question still resonates: was Chernobyl the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union?
Oleg Kobtzeff, associate professor of history and politics at the American University of Paris, says the scale of the disaster was understood almost immediately in Moscow.
“You have a complete meltdown of the core of the nuclear plant. We quite often forget the incredibly heroic attempts of the local scientists and the firemen and other responders who managed to prevent the worst.”
Those early interventions, he says, prevented an even greater catastrophe, one with potentially global consequences.
“A lot of people sacrificed their lives to contain the meltdown."
Hiding the endless horror of Chernobyl
Culture of secrecy But while the severity of the situation was clear to those in power, their response followed a different script – one shaped by decades of Soviet political conditioning.
“Secrecy was part of the political culture, and habits that had gone on for four generations,” said Kobtzeff. “It was unthinkable to be transparent.”
From childhood, Soviet citizens were conditioned to see the outside world as hostile and to guard information accordingly.
“You are taught that we are surrounded by enemies and spies and we must not disclose any vital information,” Kobtzeff explained. “So obviously there’s going to be about two, three weeks when the authorities keep it under the lid.”
But when fallout was detected abroad – in Sweden, Norway and Finland, even parts of France – silence became impossible, particularly at a time when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was seeking to ease Cold War tensions.
According to Kobtzeff, Chernobyl was an opportunity. “It became a pretext for Gorbachev and the liberals in the Kremlin to begin the reforms that they had already been thinking about for years."
A new transparency What followed marked a sharp break with the past, as Gorbachev faced journalists and answered unscripted questions about the disaster.
“He dares to respond candidly,” said Kobtzeff. “Conferences of this sort had never happened since the Bolshevik Revolution.”
This shift was immediate and widely understood. “It was seen as an absolute revolution. People understood what was happening even before the word 'perestroika' was pronounced.”
But this greater openness came at a cost. By exposing industrial mismanagement, environmental damage and decades of secrecy, the reforms also undermined the legitimacy of the Soviet system.
“The tragedy of Gorbachev… is that instead of being seen as a reformer, he’s seen as the last man standing of a completely flawed system,” said Kobtzeff.
West pays tribute to Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader who ended Cold War
The debate over Chernobyl’s role in the Soviet collapse continues. Some argue the system was already in decline, weakened by economic stagnation and political rigidity.
Kobtzeff acknowledges that view, describing the disaster as part of an existing broader malaise. But he is clear on one point – Chernobyl acted as a catalyst.
“Whether it’s a symptom or whether it’s completely part of the mechanisms… I don't think it really matters,” he argued. “The important thing to understand is that everything is related.”
A grim legacy That interpretation, Kobtzeff said, was shared at the highest levels of Soviet power.
“They realised that Chernobyl was becoming a catalyst for everything that was wrong with the system,” he said, citing personal accounts from former Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze.
“They discussed this in government meetings – that it revealed what needed to be reformed if you wanted to save the system.”
Forty years on, the physical legacy of the disaster remains grim. In parts of Belarus and northern Ukraine, communities still live with elevated rates of cancer, thyroid disease and birth defects. A vast exclusion zone surrounds the reactor, a place that is strangely both abandoned and revived, with wild animals thriving there, undisturbed by humans.
“You have an entire zone near Chernobyl which is completely cordoned off,” Kobtzeff said. “It’s like another planet.” He added that the site remains a long-term challenge: “We’ve got thousands of years of work to continue containing this.”
In 1986, the Soviet Union too tried to contain the fallout – but the truth was harder to hide.
Europe is turning to Turkey to fill the security vacuum left by an increasingly unreliable United States. But as Nato's secretary-general was praising Ankara's growing military role this week, the European Commission president was placing Turkey in the same bracket as China and Russia. The contradiction points to a dilemma that is only going to deepen.
Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte visited Aselsan, one of Turkey's fast-expanding defence companies and a growing arms supplier to Europe, during a trip to Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday, using the occasion to underline the scale of threats facing the alliance.
NATO's southern anchor
"Russia's war against Ukraine rages on, China's military modernisation and nuclear expansion continue, and Iran spreads terror and chaos, and you feel this here in Turkey," he said.
The visit came days after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered a different message, placing Turkey alongside China and Russia as a competitor rather than an ally or membership applicant.
It was a rare public signal of how deep European reservations about Ankara run, even as reliance on Turkish military capacity grows.
Europe's uneasy dependency
Huseyin Bagci, professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University, says the contrast between Rutte and von der Leyen exposes a fundamental contradiction at the heart of Europe's relationship with Ankara.
"What Rutte said and what von der Leyen said are two contradictory statements," he said. "Turkey is becoming less democratic. But the more America separates itself from European security, the more important Turkey will become."
That dynamic is already reshaping Nato's architecture. Adana is set to host a new corps headquarters, designated MNC-TUR, under Turkish command, while Istanbul is to become the base of a new maritime command, focused on Black Sea security as part of post-war planning for Ukraine.
Serhat Guvenc, a military expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says Turkey's expanding capabilities and operational record make the enlarged role a natural fit.
Will Turkey ditch Russian missiles for US military jets?
*"Turkey's future contribution may take shape around these existing initiatives," he said, pointing to the wartime grain corridor and the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures task group as foundations to build on. Turkey has also launched an ambitious naval building programme, with modern submarines well suited to Black Sea operations.
Yet the question of how far Europe can trust Ankara remains unresolved. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin throughout the Ukraine war.
Federico Donelli, a political scientist at the University of Trieste, says the EU is still searching for clarity on where Turkey actually stands. "Turkey has on many occasions adopted a more ambiguous stance, even in relation to the war in Ukraine," he said. "The EU would like to know whether Turkey could be a reliable partner."
If Putin wins
Ankara argues that its relationship with Moscow is a diplomatic asset, allowing it to serve as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has hosted peace talks between the two sides on several occasions.
But Guvenc warns that calculus could shift sharply if Russia emerges victorious. "If peace comes on Putin's terms, the potential Russian threat to Turkey's interests will increase several-fold," he said. "Russia emerging from the conflict with substantial gains will be a very different story."
Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies
The tension between Turkey's military indispensability and its political unpredictability is set to take centre stage at the Nato summit on 7-8 July in Ankara. With Washington's commitment to European defence still in question, European leaders may find themselves with little choice but to deepen ties with a partner many of them do not fully trust.
Turkey's foreign minister has warned it could be Israel’s "next enemy" as the war with Iran appears headed for closure, and called for a Middle East security pact amid rising tensions between the two countries.
"After Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy – it has to develop a rhetoric to shape public opinion," declared Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in a television interview on Monday.
"We see that not only Netanyahu’s administration, but also some figures in the opposition – though not all – are seeking to declare Turkey the new enemy."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become one of the region’s most vocal critics of Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, fuelling a surge in bilateral tensions.
In response, Israel accuses Erdogan of backing terrorist organisations, including Hamas, whom Erdogan has called “liberation fighters".
Diplomatic ties have withered, leaving only a skeleton crew in each respective embassy.
Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes
Turkish-Israeli relations have a history of highs and lows, but current tensions are unprecedented, argues Turkish security analyst Arda Mevlutoglu.
"Turkey is considering Israel a security threat because of the unpredictability factor of the Israeli government,” he said, noting that Israel’s unpredictability, combined with a breakdown in mutual understanding, is causing deep unease within Ankara’s corridors of power.
“Mutual understanding is especially critical when it comes to establishing at least a minimum amount of security environment, and the lack of such ability forces Turkey to take precautionary measures in both diplomatic, strategic and military domains as well,” he said.
Baku's 'silent diplomacy' Fidan on Monday also called for the formation of a Middle East security pact – following follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent warning of an emerging radical Sunni alliance in the region, which he said is threatening Israel.
Alarmed by the escalating tensions, Azerbaijan – one of the few countries with strong ties to both Turkey and Israel – has quietly entered the fray.
“We are behind the scenes through the silent diplomacy, effectively contributing to de-conflict certain elements of the misunderstandings and also building a certain trust and channels of communication between the two parties,” said Hikmet Haciyev, assistant to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and head of the country's Department of Foreign Affairs.
Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance strained by opposing stances on Israel
With Turkey and Israel both having a military hold in Syria, the country is a potential flashpoint.
The Baku talks saw the creation of a hotline between Turkish and Israeli militaries to avoid any accidental clashes between their air forces, which routinely fly over Syria.
But with two Israeli ministers last year calling for the assassination of the Syrian President Ahmed al-Assad, a key ally of Erdogan, Syria remains a hotspot, and Fidan warned on Monday that Israel could target Syria after the Iran conflict.
Washington's role Turkey expert Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, while acknowledging Baku’s role, says more needs to be done.
“I would say tensions between Turkey and Israel are high enough that the United States also has to be involved. And I think there's a wider understanding in Washington that they should play this role."
Asli Aydintasbas, head of the Turkey Project at the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank, agrees.
Turkey pushes for European missile defence deal amid Iran tensions
"Washington certainly has to step in and do more in order to mediate between Turkey and Israel. This is a very, very dangerous rivalry and it has the hallmarks of emerging into a long-term enmity,” she warned.
However, Aydintasbas questions Washington’s readiness and ability.
“Traditionally, it's been the US role, actually, to mediate between Turkey and Israel. The Trump administration, though, is not very focused on it. This is not the kind of stuff the Trump administration excels in – the painstaking, cumbersome work of diplomacy, of roadmaps, confidence-building measures and so on," she said.
The formidable strength of both the Israeli and Turkish militaries serves as a strong deterrent against open conflict. Yet, as both nations vie for influence across overlapping arenas – from the Gulf States to the Horn of Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean – the risk of escalation and regional destabilisation continues to cast a long shadow.
Following several Iranian missile strikes targeting Turkey, Ankara is accelerating its efforts to create its own missile defence system dubbed the “steel dome”. According to reports, it is in talks to procure Europe's latest anti-missile system. But Ankara’s aspirations are unnerving Israel – as well as its neighbours, Greece and Cyprus.
Air raid warnings during an Iranian missile strike on the Turkish city of Adana, home to a Nato airbase, served as a stark reminder of Turkey's vulnerability to such attacks.
While all the missiles were intercepted by Nato forces, Turkish security analyst Arda Mevlutoglu says the attacks are spurring Ankara on to procure the French-Italian SAMP/T anti-missile system.
"Turkey's existing air defence system inventory, as well as the maturing air defence systems, are not capable of countering medium-range ballistic missiles or long-range ballistic missiles," he said.
"So Turkey needs an urgent operational gap filler to address the ballistic missile threats. And the next-generation version of the SAMP/T seems to be the only option."
Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes
Turkey's technological advances Along with procuring the missile system, Ankara is seeking a joint production and development agreement. Turkish defence companies are making rapid advances in missile technology, and Turkish firms are already working closely with several Italian arms manufacturers, including Leonardo, which is involved in the SAMP/T development.
This burgeoning relationship is facilitated by close diplomatic ties between the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
However, strained Turkish-French relations have blocked Ankara's previous attempts to buy SAMP/T. Paris hasn’t commented on Ankara’s latest efforts, but Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, an Italian think tank, says Rome will likely be working hard to overcome any French opposition.
“It's a window of opportunity, not a guaranteed outcome. The defence and security dossier is very, very central, for both the private sector and the public sector, between Italy and Turkey."
Chiriatti says the purchase of the SAMP/T missile system is more than just an arms sale.
“The discussions are less about a simple arms purchase, but more about a broader configuration of Turkey's defence strategy and relationship with Europe, and with Italy and France."
Ukraine seeks defence ties in Middle East as Zelensky visits Damascus
'Anti-Israeli rhetoric' SAMP/T missiles are seen by Ankara as key to the development of its Steel Dome programme to provide a comprehensive air defence system, akin to Israel’s Iron Dome.
However, advances in Turkey’s missile systems aren’t confined to defence. This month saw the unveiling of offensive hypersonic missiles – unnerving Israel, given rising bilateral tensions, warns Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies.
"Not a day passes without very harsh rhetoric coming from Turkey towards Israel,” she said. "And it's not just rhetoric that is criticising Israel's actions,[but] many times rhetoric that is delegitimising Israel as a whole."
She added: “We see also, of course, the growing Turkish capabilities. Turkey, after the 12-day war in June, said it would advance its missile programme, its long-range and medium-range missile programmes. Israelis are now suffering from the damage missiles do. Israel doesn't completely understand why Turkey needs missiles."
Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes
Europe's shifting priorities European Union members Greece and Cyprus, which have a number of territorial disputes with Turkey, are also voicing concerns over Ankara’s rearming and, in particular, its missile programme.
In the past, Athens has successfully lobbied its European partners – in particular France – over the sale of sophisticated weapons to Turkey.
However, security expert Federico Donelli of Trieste University says that given Turkey's strategic location neighbouring Russia and the Middle East, and as home to NATO’s second largest army, Greek and Cypriot influence is on wane
“I don't think they will be able to make a stop to this process,” he predicts. "The priority of the European countries is security. And to be able to collaborate more in the defence sector and to be an ally with a state like Turkey will definitely be useful in some way to address some big challenges, including the Russian one."
The future of the sale of the SAMP/T missile system to Turkey remains unclear, with critics warning such a deal threatens to add to growing regional instability.
But with the Iran war and its uncertain outcome creating a potential new threat to Europe, coupled with that from Russia, the importance of Turkey to European security will only add weight to calls for greater cooperation.
The European Union is working more closely with Turkey on defence, aiming to build military independence as fears grow over Russia and doubts linger about continued US support.
Earlier this month, EU and Turkish officials met under the bloc’s Common Security and Defence Policy for the first time in three years.
The talks are part of a push to develop a more independent European defence system, amid concerns that a second Donald Trump presidency might weaken NATO’s guarantee to protect Europe.
Many see Turkey as well-placed to help meet the EU’s defence goals.
“We have huge potential for cooperation with Turkey,” said Federico Donelli, an international relations expert at Trieste University.
He pointed out that Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO, and that “many European defence systems are in some way compatible with Turkish military hardware because the majority of EU members are NATO members”.
Donelli said Turkey’s fast-growing defence sector could help the EU’s efforts to rearm.
“Turkey is one of the emerging players in the security market. One of Turkey’s key assets is producing efficiently at a lower cost compared with American or Israeli companies.”
Ankara's expanding military Turkey was recently admitted to the EU’s €150 billion Safety Assistance for Europe arms procurement programme.
While Turkey is not yet one of the top 10 global weapons producers, it has made major advances in certain areas. It is one of the world’s biggest producers of military drones and has developed a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet.
Last year, Turkish company Repkon built a munitions factory in the United States using technology designed to speed up production.
And this month, Turkey’s drone maker Baykar signed a deal with Italy’s Leonardo to develop drones together. The deal is expected to help Baykar meet EU rules that require 65 percent of the value of any arms contract to go to an EU firm.
Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said Turkey brings valuable assets to the table.
“Turkey has a vast ability not only to procure and manufacture but also to supply these, that’s readily available. So, on the physical side, it’s great,” said Ciddi.
Concerns over Turkish politics But Turkey’s position on the war in Ukraine has raised eyebrows. Ankara has kept ties with both Kyiv and Moscow, and Ciddi said this creates a dilemma for the EU.
“On the political side, it puts the EU in a rather precarious position of having to rely on a country like Turkey simply because, you know, Turkey has been playing both sides of this conflict, so it’s a double-edged sword,” he said.
Greece and Cyprus are also worried about closer defence ties between the EU and Turkey. Both have territorial disputes with Ankara.
While relations between Athens and Ankara have improved, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis insists that any defence deal with Turkey must include a clear promise to drop threats of war.
Turkey has said for 30 years it might use force if Greece extends its territorial waters in the Aegean Sea. Athens says it has a legal right to do so under a UN maritime convention.
Turkey has rejected the demand, saying the issue should be resolved through talks. Mitsotakis is due to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the sidelines of this month’s NATO summit.
Greek, Cypriot objections sidelined Greece and Cyprus still have veto powers in the EU and have used them against Turkey in the past. But Federico Donelli said Russia’s actions have changed the mood in Europe.
“Nowadays, I think the priority of European countries – and the European Union as a whole – is more important than any concerns from Cyprus and Greece,” said Donelli.
“I don’t think they will be able to halt this process,” he added. “Honestly, the priority for European countries is security: to increase production and to cooperate with all actors who can help in the defence sector.”
In a move widely seen as a way to get around Greek and Cypriot opposition, the EU has now made decisions on arms procurement subject to majority voting.
Even so, Greece and Cyprus could still slow things down diplomatically. But with France and Germany pushing hard to boost Europe’s defences, deeper ties with Turkey are likely to move ahead.
Turkish authorities are intensifying their crackdown on Istanbul's imprisoned mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The move comes as İmamoğlu, despite his incarceration, remains President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s principal political rival, with protests continuing over his arrest.
On Wednesday, a suburb of Istanbul witnessed the latest demonstration in support of the city's detained mayor. Despite the protest taking place in a traditional electoral stronghold of President Erdoğan, tens of thousands attended.
İmamoğlu masks
In a recent attempt to quell the unrest, Istanbul’s governor’s office issued a decree ordering the removal of all images, videos, and audio recordings of İmamoğlu from state buildings and public transport across the city. Within hours, social media was flooded with footage of people wearing İmamoğlu masks while riding public transport.
Turkey's youth rise up over mayor's jailing and worsening economy
“Up to 75% are against İmamoğlu's arrest, as the aversion to Erdoğan's attempt to sideline his opponent with foul play was widely distributed by all parties,” claimed political analyst Atilla Yeşilada of Global Source Partners, citing recent opinion polls.
Yeşilada argues that the poll’s findings underscore the opposition’s success in winning over public opinion.
“There is a strong reaction. This is not a temporary thing. It's a grievance that will be held and may impact the next election whenever they are held,” he added.
Recent opinion polls also show İmamoğlu enjoying a double-digit lead over Erdoğan in a prospective presidential race, with a majority of respondents believing the corruption charges against the mayor are politically motivated—a claim the government denies.
Erdogan's jailed rivals
Political analyst Sezin Öney of the independent Turkish news portal Politikyol suggests Erdoğan may have expected İmamoğlu to follow the same fate as other jailed rivals, whose influence faded once imprisoned. “The government is counting on the possibility that İmamoğlu is jailed, is out of sight, out of mind, and the presidency will have his ways,” explained Öney.
Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayor
Turkish authorities have persistently sought to curtail İmamoğlu’s presence on social media. His accounts on X (formerly Twitter) and Bluesky have been frozen following court rulings.
The fate of opposition journalists
Similar actions have been taken against opposition journalists and their supporters. “The operation goes deeper and deeper in recent months; it’s just a very concerted policy to create a blackout in this vibrant society,” claimed Erol Önderoğlu, Istanbul representative of the Paris-based Reporters Without Borders.
The legal crackdown on the Istanbul municipality continues, with further waves of arrests extending even to İmamoğlu’s personal bodyguard. His party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), is also under investigation for alleged irregularities at its party congress.
Analyst Öney predicts that further crackdowns are likely, given the potential implications for Erdoğan’s political future. “I am sure this is being calculated and recalculated every day—whether it’s beneficial to throw more cases at him (İmamoğlu), by weakening his party, the Republican People's Party, weakening him personally, or whatever is convenient. But the sky is the limit,” explained Öney.
Nevertheless, each new crackdown appears only to fuel the momentum behind opposition protests, which continue to attract large crowds across the country—including in Erdoğan’s own political bastions.
Protest movement
The leader of the main opposition CHP, Özgür Özel, has earned praise for his energetic performances and has won over many former sceptics. However, analyst Yeşilada questions whether Özel can sustain the protest movement.
“I feel in the summer months, it’s very difficult to keep the momentum; the colleges are closed, and people are shuffling through the country, so if that (protests) is the only means of piling the pressure on Erdoğan, it’s not going to work,” warned Yeşilada.
Istanbul's mayorial elections mean more than just running the city
Yeşilada believes the opposition leader must elevate his strategy. “Özel needs to find new tricks. It will take two things: A) hearing what the grassroots are saying, in particular the younger generation, and B) being able to reshuffle the party rank and file so true activists are promoted—so they can energise the base,” he added.
In 2013, Erdoğan weathered a wave of mass protests which largely dissipated with the closing of universities and the arrival of the summer holidays. This year, he may again be relying on summer to quieten dissent. For the opposition, the challenge is to ensure that Erdoğan’s summer is anything but peaceful.
In this week's International Report, RFI’s Jan van der Made takes a closer look at the recent Romanian elections, in which centrist candidate Nicușor Dan secured a decisive victory over his far-right rival, George Simion.
On 26 May, pro-EU centrist Nicușor Dan was sworn in as President of Romania, having vowed to oppose “isolationism and Russian influence.”
Earlier, Dan had emerged victorious in a closely contested election rerun, widely viewed as pivotal for the future direction of the NATO and EU member state of 19 million people, which shares a border with war-torn Ukraine.
The vote followed a dramatic decision by Romania’s Constitutional Court five months prior to annul a presidential election, citing allegations of Russian interference and the extensive social media promotion of the far-right frontrunner—who was subsequently barred from standing again.
Although nationalist and EU-sceptic George Simion had secured a commanding lead in the first round, Dan ultimately prevailed in the second-round run-off.
RFI speaks with Claudiu Năsui, former Minister of Economy and member of the Save Romania Union, about the pressing challenges facing the country—from economic reform and political polarisation to the broader implications of the election for Romania’s future, including its critical role in supporting Ukraine amid ongoing regional tensions.
Some African leaders regard United States President Donald Trump’s decision to halt aid to the continent as an opportunity to foster self-reliance. They have already initiated plans to mobilise the necessary resources to reshape Africa’s aid landscape.
“Trade, not aid, is now the pillar of our policy in Africa,” said United States ambassador Troy Fitrell, from the Bureau of African Affairs, in a speech on 14 May at business summit in Abidjan.
The declaration settles any doubts over the Trump administration’s position on aid towards Africa. The US – the world single largest aid donor in the world, according to the United Nations – no longer wants to disburse billions in foreign aid, despite the fact that it represents a small percentage of its entire budget.
In 2023, the US spent $71.9 billion in foreign aid, which amounts to 1.2 percent of its entire budget for that fiscal year.
President Donald Trump repeatedly stated that aid is a waste. For years, Africa has been the region receiving more funding from the United States than any other.
Across the African continent, Trump’s executive orders were initially met with shock, anger, and despair — but also with a renewed determination to change course and place African resources at the heart of African healthcare.
In February, at an African Union summit, Rwandan President Paul Kagame announced that the AU’s health institutions, including the Centres for Disease Control, would take the lead in seeking alternatives to US funding.
“Africa now finds itself at a crossroads. The health financing landscape has shifted dramatically.
“I propose that, over the next year, we work together to define new mechanisms for concrete collaboration on healthcare among governments, businesses, and philanthropies,” he told African leaders.
“The work of building our continent, including our healthcare systems, cannot be outsourced to anyone else.”
To untangle what is going on, for this edition of Interntional Report, RFI interviewed Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project; Chris Milligan, former foreign service officer at USAID, in Washington; Mark Heywood, human rights and social justice activist in South Africa, co-founder of the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC); Onikepe Owolabi, vice president of International research at the Guttmacher institute in New York; Monica Oguttu, founding executive director of KMET, Kisumu Medical and Education Trust, in Kenya.
Turkey and the United States are stepping up their cooperation in Syria, strengthening a partnership that has grown despite tensions with Israel. The two countries say they are working more closely on security and stability in the region, reflecting a broader reset in their relationship.
The pledge was made during a meeting of the US-Turkey Working Group in Washington, where diplomats committed to “increasing cooperation and coordination on the security and stability of Syria”.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara, said this signals progress.
“I think it shows us that Turkey and the US can get on the same page when it comes to Syria,” he said. “Disagreements in Syria were part of the problem between Turkey and the United States. There are other issues, but this one was one of the core issues.”
Unluhisarcikli believes the good chemistry between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump is playing a role.
“I think it’s significant President Erdogan is one of the leaders that President Trump likes working with and trusts. But of course, this is the case until it’s not,” he said.
Macron urges Syrian leader to protect minorities after deadly clashes
Israeli pushbackThe move comes despite a warning from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told Trump during his February visit to Washington that Turkey was a security threat in Syria.
Both countries have troops in Syria and see each other as rivals.
Trump appeared to dismiss Netanyahu’s concerns, speaking to the international media from the Oval Office with the Israeli leader at his side.
“I told the Prime Minister: Bibi, if you have a problem with Turkey, I really think I can be able to work it out,” Trump said. “I have a really great relationship with Turkey and its leader.”
Erdogan, along with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is credited with helping persuade Trump to lift sanctions on Syria. Israeli foreign policy analyst Gallia Lindenstrauss said the decision went against Israel’s position.
She explained that Israel wanted any easing of sanctions to be linked to concessions by Damascus.
“I think the fact the US ambassador to Turkey has been appointed as the envoy to Syria also means the Turkish position will get more attention from the US side,” Lindenstrauss said.
“That in itself makes some concern in Israel. Because here Israel has its priorities with regards to Syria, it wants someone pushing Turkey to be more flexible and not, of course, to build bases throughout Syria. That would be a very threatening scenario regarding Israel.”
Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common ground
Turkish airbasesIsraeli warplanes recently destroyed a Syrian airbase that Turkish forces were preparing to take over. Turkey says its growing military presence, including control of airbases, is aimed at helping Syria’s new rulers fight insurgent groups like the Islamic State.
“For Turkey, Syria’s security and stability are of the utmost importance, and Turkey is devoting resources to keep Syria stable because Syria’s stability is so important for Turkey’s security, and that’s what Israel should understand,” Unluhisarcikli said.
But Turkish airbases equipped with missile defences would restrict Israel’s freedom to operate in Syrian airspace.
“Israel has just found an opportunity, an air corridor towards Iran (via Syrian airspace), which it can use without asking for permission from any third party,” Unluhisarcikli said. “If Turkey takes over the bases, then Israel would need to get permission from Turkey, which it doesn’t want to, and I think that’s understandable.”
Azerbaijan has been mediating talks between Israel and Turkey to reduce tensions. The two sides have reportedly set up deconfliction systems, including a hotline.
“There has been progress between Israel and Turkey over Syria. There have been at least three announced talks in Azerbaijan which is positive,” Lindenstrauss said.
PKK ends 40-year fight but doubts remain about the next steps
Iran and the F-35sIran’s nuclear programme is another source of friction between Israel and Turkey.
Unluhisarcikli said Trump seems to be leaning more towards Erdogan’s view than Netanyahu’s.
“For Turkey, military conflict with Iran is a very bad scenario. I am not entirely sure that’s how Trump feels, but for him, any conflict should be just a second choice because conflict is not good for business," Unluhisarcikli said.
"It seems Israel has made the judgment that it is time for military action, the time for talking is over. There should be military action. Trump disagrees. He thinks he does have a chance of negotiating.”
US and Iranian negotiators met in Rome on Friday for the fifth round of talks. Erdogan supports the talks and has also claimed that Trump is open to lifting the US embargo on selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. That would remove Israel’s technical advantage in the air.
Trump’s increasingly close relationship with Erdogan comes amid reports that he is uneasy about Israel’s war in Gaza. But Lindenstrauss warned that Israel is counting on Trump’s unpredictability.
“We know that Trump has a basic favourable view towards Erdogan. This was already in his first term, and it is continuing now. But we also know that Trump can be tough towards Turkey, and he did implement sanctions against Turkey in his first term," she said.
"So this good relationship depends on whether Turkey is in line with US interests. But of course, Israel is watching.”
However, with Israel's war in Gaza showing little signs of ending, threatening further diplomatic isolation, Erdogan for now appears to have Trump's ear, with the two leaders sharing similar agendas.
The Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK, has announced the end to its more than forty-year fight against Turkey, a conflict that claimed more than 40,000 lives. But the declaration, called historic by Turkish officials, is being met by public skepticism with questions remaining over disarmament and its calls for democratic reforms.
Upon hearing the news that the PKK was ending its war and disarming, Kurds danced in the streets of the predominantly Kurdish southeast of Turkey. The region bore the brunt of the brutal conflict, with the overwhelming majority of those killed being civilians, and millions more displaced.
From armed struggle to political arena
"It is a historic moment. This conflict has been going on for almost half a century," declared Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.
"And for them [the PKK] to say that the period of armed struggle is over and that they are going to transition to a major political struggle is very important."
The PKK, designated as a terrorist organisation by the European Union and most of Turkey’s Western allies, launched its armed struggle in 1984 for Kurdish rights and independence. At the time, Turkey was ruled by the military, which did not even acknowledge the existence of Kurds, referring to them as “Mountain Turks.”
Nearly fifty years later, however, Turkey is a different place. The third-largest parliamentary party is the pro-Kurdish Dem Party. In its declaration ending its armed struggle and announcing its dissolution, the PKK stated that there is now space in Turkey to pursue its goals through political means.
However, military realities are thought to be behind the PKK’s decision to end its campaign. “From a technical and military point of view, the PKK lost,” observed Aydın Selcan, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region.
“For almost ten years, there have been no armed attacks by the PKK inside Turkey because they are no longer capable of doing so. And in the northern half of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, there is now almost no PKK presence,” added Selcan.
Selcan also claims the PKK could be seeking to consolidate its military gains in Syria. “For the first time in history, the PKK’s Syrian offshoot, the YPG, has begun administering a region. So it’s important for the organisation to preserve that administration.
“They’ve rebranded themselves as a political organisation.” Turkish forces have repeatedly launched military operations in Syria against the YPG. However, the Syrian Kurdish forces have reached a tentative agreement with Damascus’s new rulers—whom Ankara supports.
Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace
Erdoğan’s high-stakes gamble
For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is trailing in opinion polls and facing growing protests over the arrest of his main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, on alleged corruption charges, this could be a golden opportunity. “This is a win for Erdoğan, no doubt,” claimed analyst Aydıntaşbaş.
Along with favourable headlines, the PKK’s peace announcement offers a solution to a major political headache for Erdoğan. The Turkish president wants to amend the constitution to remove term limits, allowing him to run again for the presidency.
The pro-Kurdish Dem Party holds the parliamentary votes Erdoğan needs. “Yes, Erdoğan, of course, will be negotiating with Kurds for constitutional changes,” said Aydıntaşbaş.
“Now we are entering a very transactional period in Turkish politics. Instead of repressing Kurds, it’s going to be about negotiating with them. And it may persuade the pro-Kurdish faction—which forms the third-largest bloc in Turkish politics—to peel away from the opposition camp,” added Aydıntaşbaş.
However, Aydıntaşbaş warns that Erdoğan will need to convince his voter base, which remains sceptical of any peace process with the PKK. According to a recent opinion poll, three out of four respondents opposed the peace process, with a majority of Erdoğan’s AK Party supporters against it.
For decades, the PKK has been portrayed in Turkey as a brutal terrorist organisation, and its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, is routinely referred to by politicians and much of the media as “the baby killer.” Critics argue the government has failed to adequately prepare the public for peace.
“In peace processes around the world, we see a strong emphasis on convincing society,” observed Sezin Öney, a political commentator at Turkey’s PolitikYol news portal. “There are reconciliation processes, truth commissions, etc., all designed to gain public support. But in our case, it’s like surgery without anaesthesia—an operation begun without any sedatives,” added Öney.
Turkey looks for regional help in its battle against Kurdish rebels in Iraq
Political concessions?
Public pressure on Erdoğan is expected to grow, as the PKK and Kurdish political leaders demand concessions to facilitate the peace and disarmament process.
“In the next few months, the government is, first of all, expected to change the prison conditions of Öcalan,” explained Professor Mesut Yeğen of the Istanbul-based Reform Institute.
“The second expectation is the release of those in poor health who are currently in jail. And for the disarmament process to proceed smoothly, there should be an amnesty or a reduction in sentences, allowing PKK convicts in Turkish prisons to be freed and ensuring that returning PKK militants are not imprisoned,” Yeğen added.
Yeğen claimed that tens of thousands of political prisoners may need to be released, along with the reinstatement of Dem Party mayors who were removed from office under anti-terrorism legislation.
Turkey's Saturday Mothers keep up vigil for lost relatives
Erdoğan has ruled out any concessions until the PKK disarms, but has said that “good things” will follow disarmament. Meanwhile, the main opposition CHP Party, while welcoming the peace initiative, insists that any democratic reforms directed at the Kurdish minority must be extended to wider society—starting with the release of İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s chief political rival.
While the peace process is widely seen as a political victory for Erdoğan, it could yet become a liability for the president, who risks being caught between a sceptical voter base and an impatient Kurdish population demanding concessions.
Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations tells RFI that Donald Trump’s administration is treating Europe less as a partner and more as a rival. In backing nationalist movements and undermining multilateral institutions, it is exporting a political mode of operation that risks fracturing European unity.
The impact of Donald Trump's second term in the White House is being felt far beyond US borders. Observers say this ripple effect can be seen across Europe, not just in policy but in the continent's political culture itself.
For Dr Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the stakes are nothing less than the future of European liberal democracy.
In her latest ECFR report, MAGA Goes Global: Trump’s Plan for Europe, Belin warns that what might appear to be chaotic decisions from the Oval Office are, in fact, part of an ideological project.
“There’s actually a strong direction, a clear destination,” Belin told RFI. “Trump, surrounded by loyalists and MAGA Republicans, is ready to implement his plan – to push back on liberal democracy, and to push back on Europe."
According to her, he sees Europe as “an extension of his political enemies – liberals and progressives” and views its institutions as bureaucratic hurdles rather than allies in global leadership.
Culture wars without bordersTrump’s administration – bolstered by figures including Vice President JD Vance and media mogul Elon Musk – has also made overtures to Europe’s far right.
They have voiced support for Germany’s far-right AfD party and France's Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, including on Musk's social media platform X (formerly Twitter) – helping to disseminate nationalist and populist rhetoric across the continent.
“We’re seeing a systematic attack on the liberal model that Europe represents,” said Belin. “This ‘Trumpian wave’ has fired up nationalist opposition in Europe, even if it hasn’t created a united front."
‘Free Le Pen’: US conservatives rally behind French far-right leader
Non merci to MAGAHowever, some of the European political parties that share Trump’s scepticism of liberal institutions are treading carefully when it comes to embracing his brand of politics.
While leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary openly welcome MAGA-style backing, others see it as a double-edged sword.
Following her recent legal conviction, Le Pen received support from MAGA-aligned figures. But her party responded with conspicuous silence.
“They don’t want or need this Trumpian support,” Belin noted. “Their political strategy is not about aligning with MAGA America – it’s more French, more sovereignist."
Embracing Trump too openly could risk undermining years of effort to mainstream the National Rally’s image. “Nationalists are realising that now – it brings fuel to the fire, yes, but it also complicates their own domestic positioning," said Belin.
Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from France
Europe respondsFrench President Emmanuel Macron was among the first European leaders to sound the alarm on the changing nature of the US-European alliance.
"I want to believe that the United States will stay by our side but we have to be prepared for that not to be the case," he said in a televised address to the nation in March.
I January, in a speech to French ambassadors, he said: "Ten years ago, who could have imagined it if we had been told that the owner of one of the largest social networks in the world would support a new international reactionary movement and intervene directly in elections, including in Germany."
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz followed suit, criticising Musk’s decision to give the AfD a platform just weeks before Germany's federal elections.
However, Belin points out that the European response is still taking shape. “It’s brand new as a phenomenon,” she said. “Europeans were prepared to be challenged on trade, on security – even on Ukraine. But this cultural challenge is unprecedented.”
Meloni positions herself as Europe’s ‘trump card’ on visit to White House
Still, as Belin notes, Trumpism is not a winning formula everywhere. “Turning fully Trumpist would derail Marine Le Pen’s strategy. It’s not a winning strategy in France,” she said. “But in more insurgent political systems, it might be."
And there is concern too that Trumpism could outlive Trump himself.
“There’s been a transformation in the perception of America’s global role,” Belin said. “And that will stick around. It will be pushed by some of the nationalist parties in our countries. That is the Trumpist legacy”.
As Turkey slipped further down in the latest Press Freedom Index, the country's besieged opposition and independent media are voicing concerns that some of the tech giants are increasingly complicit in government efforts to silence them.
While protests continue over the jailing of the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, his account on social media platform X has been cancelled.
X, formerly Twitter, claims it was in response to a Turkish court order. Dozens of Imamoglu supporters have also had their accounts suspended, drawing widespread condemnation.
The controversy is stoking broader concerns over the stance of the world's tech giants towards Turkey.
"These international tech companies find it well to keep good relations with the Turkish authorities because their only evaluation is not just on the side of democratic standards," said Erol Onderoglu of the Paris-based Reporters without Borders.
"But there is another challenge which is based on financial profit. The country's advertising market is very vibrant regarding social media participation," he added.
Google is also facing criticism. The US tech giant was recently accused of changing its algorithms, resulting in a collapse in people accessing the websites of Turkey's independent media and therefore depriving the companies of vital advertising revenue.
Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activists
Fewer alternative voicesUntil now, the internet has provided a platform for alternative voices to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who controls around 90 percent of the mainstream media.
"Google has a very big effect when you search the web for news, the most visible ones are always from pro-government media or state media. But the omission of independent media from results is just a mystery right now," said Volga Kuscuoglu editor of Bianet English edition.
Turkey's independent media is battling arrests and fines by the Turkish authorities. Reporters Without Borders' latest index on press freedom saw Turkey slip further down the rankings to 159 out of 180 countries.
Koscuoglu fears the government is seeking to extend its control over the media to the internet.
"We don't know whether there was any political pressure as no reports have been made about that," said Koscuoglu. "But the government has passed several laws in recent years and those were aimed to bring large social media under control in Turkey.
"You wouldn't expect Google to be excluded from this control; so yes, there could be political influence on that decision."
How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before polls
Threat to reduce bandwidthDuvar, one of Turkey's largest and most prominent independent news portals, closed its doors in March, citing a loss of revenue following the collapse in internet hits, which it blamed on Google's change to algorithms.
Google was approached to comment on the accusations but did not reply.
However, a spokesperson speaking anonymously to Reuters news agency said that any algorithm changes were simply aimed at enhancing the search facility.
Internet experts believe the Turkish government has controlled the world's tech giants by making them liable to Turkish law.
"The government, in addition to warnings, financial penalties and an advertisement ban, was going to impose a bandwidth restriction," said Yaman Akdeniz, a co-founder of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association.
"The government was going to throttle the social media platforms that didn't comply...up to 50 percent of their bandwidth access was going to be reduced, and that was going up to 90 percent of their bandwidth being restricted from Turkey.
"Social media providers didn't want to risk that," he concluded.
Press freedom concerns as Ankara forces internet giants to bow to Turkish law
'Extinction of pluralism'With some of Turkey's independent media organisations claiming their web activity has dropped by as much as 90 percent in the past few months, many are struggling to survive and are laying off journalists.
The experience of Turkey could well be the canary in the mine.
Onderoglu of Reporters Without Borders claims the plurality of the media is at stake.
"Extinction of pluralism within the media, which means that you'll have just one echo from a country which is the official line, is extremely dangerous," he warned.
"This is the main concern not only in Turkey but in dozens of countries around the world," he added.
"Journalists are trying to make viable another view within society, another approach from the official one."
Questions over Google's power as effective gatekeeper to the internet and what critics claim is the lack of transparency over the search engine's algorithms are likely to grow.
Meanwhile, the algorithm changes leave Turkey's besieged independent media, already battling arrests and fines, fighting for financial survival.
Increasingly tense relations between South Africa and the United States have been marked by trade threats, diplomatic expulsions and deepening divisions over global conflicts. But despite the pressure, South Africa is not backing down on key principles. Foreign Affairs Minister Ronald Lamola tells RFI their “dynamic and evolving” relationship must be nurtured – yet he insists not everything can be negotiated.
Relations have been turbulent since Donald Trump took office in January. Cooperation on trade, health, defence and diplomacy has suffered after several of Trump’s executive orders.
The US is South Africa’s second largest trading partner, but exports to America now face 30 percent tariffs.
On 7 February, Trump issued an executive order to resettle white South African refugees, saying the country’s leaders were doing “some terrible things, horrible things”.
US media say the first group of Afrikaner (white South Africans) "refugees" is due to arrive as from 12 May. South Africa expressed its "concerns" to the United States on 9 May and reiterated that "allegations of discrimination are unfounded".
On 14 April, South Africa named former deputy Finance Minister Mcebesi Jonas as its special envoy to Washington after ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was expelled.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Rasool was “no longer welcome” in America, calling him “a race-baiting politician who hates America” and Trump.
President Cyril Ramaphosa and Trump spoke on the phone on 24 April in what was described as a cordial exchange. Trump invited Ramaphosa to Washington and suggested he “bring the golfers over”.
South Africa unites against Trump as US freezes aid over land reform
RFI: Where are we at today with the relationship between South Africa and the United States?
Ronald Lamola: The relationship has always been dynamic and evolving, obviously with more challenges since the election of President Trump, particularly with the number of executive orders that are not based on any facts or truths.
In South Africa, the expropriation bills are aimed at redressing the imbalances of the past to ensure there is equitable distribution of all the resources of our country. This is done in line with the constitution, which has got sufficient safeguards against any arbitrary use of power by the executive or by the state.
It is in that context that we continue to engage with Washington because the relationship remains important. Washington is our strategic trading partner, the second biggest after China.
RFI: Is there more going on behind the scenes than we can see? Are relations improving despite the tensions?
Ronald Lamola: Indeed, there are still challenges, but we continue to engage at a diplomatic level.
International Court of Justice hears South Africa's genocide case against Israel
RFI: Is South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice being used as a bargaining chip?
Ronald Lamola: No, it cannot be used as a bargaining chip. This is a matter of principle.
Our history is linked to that of Palestine and, as Nelson Mandela said, the struggle of South Africa is not complete until the Palestinian people are also free. There has been propaganda that Iran or Hamas is paying for these legal fees.
You can check the departmental websites where all reports are recorded. It is the South African government tax money that is paying for this case. There is no other hidden hand paying for the case.
RFI: Can you imagine a scenario where the United States might ask South Africa to drop the case against Israel in order to continue enjoying good relations with Washington?
Ronald Lamola: Unfortunately, I cannot imagine things that I don't know.
RFI: What would South Africa's position be if that were to happen?
Ronald Lamola: I don't want to speculate about anything or any scenarios. We deal with what is in front of us.
As you are aware, in one of the executive orders, this issue of the case has been raised and, also in some of the bills that are before Congress. But this is a matter of principle. It's based on the Genocide Convention. Principles cannot be negotiated.
RFI: Where does the case at the ICJ stand now?
Ronald Lamola: We are waiting for Israel to respond. As you are aware, we filed a memorial last year in June. The case has to take its normal course. The court must decide because the future of the world is dependent on certainty, on a rules-based international order, which is based on international law.
We have to ensure that international law is respected by all. The might cannot always be right.
RFI: South Africa says it will not cut ties with historic allies. President Ramaphosa said that South Africa will not be bullied. Is there a price to pay for standing by your principles?
Ronald Lamola: Nations must respect and abide by the rule of law. We are signatories to the Genocide Convention. We will respect and live by the UN Charter. Obviously, there will be pain that may come with it, but this is the pain we need to pay for the people of the world.
South Africa is a product of solidarity. We would not be free if it was not for the people of the world who suffered and stood in solidarity with us. So, we owe it to the people of the world to ensure that the UN Conventions and the UN Charter are protected and defended.
EU flags stronger partnership with South Africa with €4.7bn investment
RFI: The US is South Africa's second largest trading partner. How can your country absorb the blow of 30 percent tariffs, if they go through by mid-July?
Obviously, it is going to be very difficult and damaging to our economy. We see it also as an opportunity for us to engage in bilateral agreements with the US that are mutually beneficial.
There are South African businesses invested in the US, and also US businesses invested in our country. About 601 companies from the US have invested in South Africa, responsible for more than 150,000 jobs in our country.
It is an important dynamic relationship, which has also brought a lot of technology in our country and improved our economy.
But, we also have to diversify markets. We are glad that the EU is opening its market to work with us and trade with us. We are also looking at other countries to trade with us.
We will, however, continue to engage with the US because we believe the relationship is mutually beneficial and we have to continue to nurture it for the benefit of our two nations.
This interview has been lightly edited for clarity
During the first 100 days of his second term in office, US President Donald Trump has issued a series of executive orders that have unsettled the commodities market and prompted investors to hold off from making new investments in African economies.
In the last three months, Trump has presented the world with “a ding-dong of measures and counter-measures," as Nigerian finance analyst Gbolahan Olojede put it.
With such measures including increased tariffs on US imports from African nations (as elsewhere), this new regime has effectively called into question the future validity of preferential trade agreements with African states – such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows duty-free access, under strict conditions, to the US market for African goods.
"The reciprocal tariffs effectively nullify the preferences that sub-Saharan Africa countries enjoy under AGOA," South Africa's foreign and trade ministers said in a joint statement on 4 April.
Jon Marks, editorial director of energy consultancy and news service African Energy, echoed this climate of uncertainty: “With the Trump presidency lurching from policy to policy, no one knows where they are. And it's very difficult to actually see order within this chaos."
Africa braces for economic hit as Trump’s tariffs end US trade perks
He told RFI he expects long periods of stasis, in which nothing actually happens, when people have been expecting immediate action.
“That's going to be, I think, devastating for markets, devastating for investment. The outlook really is grim," he added.
CommoditiesIn 2024, US exports to Africa were worth $32.1 billion. The US imported $39.5 billion worth of goods from Africa, the bulk of these being commodities such as oil and gas, as well as rare minerals including lithium, copper and cobalt.
“The focus of the Trump administration is on critical minerals now, particularly in the [Democratic Republic of Congo], which is the Saudi Arabia of cobalt,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project news site.
The US is aiming to build non-Chinese supply chains for its military technology.
“The F-35s, supersonic fighter jets, need cobalt. When they look at critical minerals, they're not looking at that for renewable energy. They're looking at it specifically for weapons and for their defence infrastructure,” Olander explained.
Collateral damageOn 2 April, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on US imports worldwide, declaring that the US “has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far” and calling this date a “Liberation Day” which will make “America wealthy again”.
Stock markets immediately plummeted as a result of his announcement.
On 9 April, Trump announced a 90-day pause – until mid-July – on these tariffs. Instead, a flat 10 percent rate will be applied on exports to the US.
The exception was China, whose goods face even higher tariffs – 145 percent on most Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with 125 percent levies on US imports.
According to Olander, most African nations have so far been “insulated from the harsh impact of these tariffs” and from the consequences of what is, in effect, a trade war between two economic giants – China and the US.
“South Africa, which accounts for a considerable amount of Africa's trade with the United States, is much more exposed to the effects of these tariffs than the rest of the continent,” he said.
Africa FirstBut what if Trump's "America First" agenda was to be copied, asks Kelvin Lewis, editor of the Awoko newspaper in Sierra Leone.
“Just like Trump is saying America First, we should think Sierra Leone First,” he told RFI. “He is teaching everyone how to be patriotic. We have no reason to depend on other people, to go cap in hand begging, because we have enough natural resources to feed and house all 9 million of us Sierra Leoneans.”
He added: “If Africa says we close shop and we use our own resources for our benefit like Trump is telling Americans, I think the rest of the world would stand up and take notice.”
Meanwhile, Trump believes his imposition of these increased tariffs has succeeded in bringing countries to the negotiating table.
“I'm telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are dying to make a deal. Please, please sir, make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, sir,” Trump said on 8 April at a Republican Congress committee dinner in Washington.
New marketsOlander believes that the trade war instigated by Trump has resulted in more risks than opportunities for Africa’s vulnerable countries.
“But, there is a lot more activity now diplomatically between African countries and other non-US countries,” he added.
“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from Ethiopia was in Vietnam, as was Burundi's president. There’s more engagement between Uganda and Indonesia, more trade activity and discussions between Brazil and Africa.”
Foreign ministers from the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) met in Rio de Janeiro on 28 April to coordinate their response to Trump’s trade policy.
However, securing markets for non-US exports is a challenging task. It took Kenya 10 years “of steady diplomacy” to get China to fund the extension of the Standard Gauge Railway to the Ugandan border, according to Olander.
Kenyan president visits China as country pivots away from the US
“Whether it's in China, Indonesia, Brazil or elsewhere, it takes time. Exporting into developed G7 markets means facing an enormous number of hurdles, like agricultural restrictions,” he continued. “Then, in the global south, Angola is not going to sell bananas to Brazil, right?”
“Trump's trade policies have actually been to depress the oil price,” said Marks. “The price has been under the psychologically low threshold of $70 a barrel.
He explains it is because of the demand destruction Trump's policies have placed on global trading.
Demand destruction means that people are not investing, “ Marks said. “It's really a period of wait-and-see.”
“This will affect prices very profoundly. One of the ironies is that although a lower dollar means that African economies should be able to export their goods for more money, a declining dollar amidst market uncertainties means that investors are not going to be rushing to come into Africa.”
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought with it a seismic shift in transatlantic dynamics, with rising trade tensions, reduced diplomatic engagement and growing uncertainty over the future of Western alliances. So what has been the early impact of his second term on EU–US relations and how is Europe responding?
With Trump's administration wasting no time in rekindling the “America First” doctrine, this time with fewer diplomatic niceties, tensions over trade, diplomacy and the long-term stability of the transatlantic alliance quickly arose.
From the imposition of sweeping tariffs on EU goods – 20 percent across the board, covering all exports from France and other member states – to a reduction in support for Ukraine, Trump's early moves have sent a clear message: Washington’s priorities have shifted – and not in Europe’s favour.
Brussels’ response, while restrained, has been firm, and the sense that Europe can no longer rely fully on Washington is taking root.
Trump's tariffs come into force, upending economic ties with Europe
Retreat, rather than reformOne of the most striking aspects of Trump’s second term so far is his rapid dismantling of traditional US diplomatic structures.
Former US diplomat William Jordan warns that the institutional capacity of American diplomacy is being hollowed out. “The notion of America First risks turning into America Alone,” he said.
“Everything that's been happening since 20 January has largely demoralised and damaged the State Department."
There has been an exodus of seasoned diplomats, alongside a wave of politically motivated "loyalty tests" handed out to charities, NGOs and United Nations agencies as part of the State Department’s review of foreign aid – asking them to declare whether they have worked with "entities associated with communist, socialist, or totalitarian parties, or any parties that espouses anti-American beliefs".
European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clash
The cumulative effect of this threat to the impartiality of America's foreign service, Jordan notes, is a profound erosion of trust – not just within US institutions but among global partners.
“There are worries in the intelligence community that longstanding partners can no longer share sensitive information with the United States,” he added, raising concerns about the durability of intelligence alliances such as Five Eyes, comprising the US, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Trump’s decision to scale back overseas missions and USAID funding has also left vast vacuums of influence – particularly in Africa, where both China and Russia are stepping in to fill the void.
“It’s not just that it’s being done – it's how it’s being done. Brutally. Recklessly. Slashing and burning institutions that have taken decades to build,” Jordan told RFI.
Amid this weakening of America’s traditional soft power influence, however, Jordan also cautions that the country's soft power strategies have not always been effective, pointing to congressional inertia and overlapping funding mandates which have dulled strategic impact.
Still, he maintains, a haphazard retreat does more harm than reform.
A dressing-down in MunichEurope’s discomfort was visible in February at the Munich Security Conference, where US Vice President JD Vance delivered a remarkable rebuke to European leaders, accusing them of wavering on democratic values.
The message was harsh, and the delivery even more so – an unprecedented public dressing-down in a diplomatic forum. The reaction in Munich embodied Europe’s growing unease.
European fears mount at Munich conference as US signals shift on Ukraine
“Certainly the language was something that you wouldn't expect,” Mairéad McGuinness, the former EU Commissioner for Financial Stability told RFI.
“This is somebody coming to our house and telling us they don’t like how we run it. It’s not what you expect between friends and allies. Was it a surprise? Maybe not,” she added. “But it’s not normal."
The incident underscored an increasingly assertive US posture under Trump 2.0, and the deepening fissures within the Western alliance, reflected in the new administration's willingness to publicly challenge long-standing relationships.
European allies rally behind Ukraine after White House clash
'Confidence in the US is eroding'The EU has responded with a measured approach – "how the European Union tends to do its business,” according to McGuinness.
“What is problematic is trying to understand exactly what the US side wants,” she continued. “We’re hearing not just about tariffs, but also about food safety, financial regulation – areas where Europe leads globally."
Rather than caving to pressure, the EU is showing signs of a more confident and coordinated strategic posture – in a similar vein to its response during the Covid-19 crisis and its rapid support for Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion.
One consequence of these shifting diplomatic sands has been a rise in investment in European defence, following the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine.
EU Commission chief calls for defence 'surge' in address to EU parliament
With EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announcing that, under the Rearm Europe plan announced by on 6 March, EU member states can boost defence spending, European arms manufacturers are seizing the opportunity to compete against their US rivals.
While not a wholesale pivot away from the US, it signals a broader awareness that over-reliance on any single partner carries risks.
William Jordan put it bluntly: “Confidence in the US as a reliable partner is eroding, and not just in Europe.”
For him, this moment could present an opportunity for Europe to build a more independent and robust security architecture – one less vulnerable to the whims of any one American president.
US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office have been marked by unprecedented volatility and deep divisions across the country.
Praised by supporters for his pledges to "restore faith in government" and "secure borders," his tenure has also provoked widespread concern among Democrats and political analysts, who criticise his erratic style and sweeping executive orders that have disrupted established institutions and international alliances.
Trump's first 100 days: Revolution or destruction? The view from France
The Trump administration has issued over 130 executive orders, including mass dismissals, aggressive immigration enforcement, and withdrawal from climate accords—measures that have had profound social and economic consequences.
Critics warn that such actions erode democratic norms and due process, while grassroots protests and public demonstrations have surged across the country in response to policies widely viewed as damaging to communities and public services.
Trump's first 100 days: Grassroots pick up Democratic slack as 'chaos' unfolds
In this international report, we look ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, with experts suggesting that Trump’s confrontational approach and divisive policies could ultimately backfire on the Republican Party—potentially costing it crucial support.
As Canada heads to the polls on Monday, a historic shift in national identity and foreign policy is unfolding, driven by growing disillusionment with the United States and a renewed embrace of European alliances.
Across Canada there is a strong sense that this crucial election is about more than domestic policy.
It is being seen as a referendum not just on leadership, but on Canada’s place in the world – particularly in terms of its increasingly strained relationship with the United States and a growing desire to forge closer ties with allies in Europe.
“This election really matters,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a Canadian, non-profit polling organisation.
“More than nine in 10 Canadians say it’s more important than the last two elections – and over seven and a half million have already voted early. That’s huge, in a country of just over 40 million."
From Trudeau to CarneyThe election follows the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January, after nearly a decade in office.
While once a global liberal icon, Trudeau had seen his domestic popularity plunge, and by the end of 2024 his Liberal Party was trailing the opposition Conservatives by 30 percentage points.
His departure set the stage for Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor, to step into the political spotlight as the new Liberal party leader.
But it wasn’t just the change in Liberal leadership that shifted the political winds.
“The other main character,” as Kurl put it, “was Donald Trump."
Trump unveils sweeping US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China - EU next?
Trump’s re-emergence on the US political stage – and his increasingly provocative comments about Canada – electrified the Canadian political conversation.
He floated ideas about annexation, referred to Canada as "ripe for reabsorption", and reintroduced aggressive trade rhetoric – all of which triggered a wave of public backlash north of the border.
“Canadians initially dismissed it as Trump being Trump,” Kurl told RFI. “But the more he talked, the more seriously people took it. There was real anger, a sense of betrayal – and the politicians who leaned into that emotion did well”.
Nationalism, the Canadian wayCarney responded with a tone rarely seen in Canadian politics: firm, unapologetic nationalism.
He rejected Trump’s rhetoric outright, reiterated Canada's sovereignty and committed to defending Canadian interests – economically and politically.
“We don’t tend to do overt nationalism in Canada,” Kurl explained. “But this time, it worked.
"We saw a huge swing in the polls – from a 30-point deficit to a five-point Liberal lead today. And that shift is in no small part down to Carney embracing a message of pride and independence."
What’s changed most dramatically is the tone of Canada’s relationship with the US, once its closest ally.
Kurl notes that Canadian travel to the US has dropped significantly in recent months, a reflection of a more widespread cooling of sentiment towards the country's southern neighbour.
“The US was Canada’s best friend – not just its biggest trading partner, but emotionally too. And now people are saying, this just isn’t working."
And for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, this has been a missed opportunity, as he ignored the Trump factor until the campaign was already under way.
For Kurl, Poilievre's recognition of Canadian anger and disappointment with the US came "too little, too late".
New Canadian PM in Europe to seek 'reliable partners' amidst trade war with US
Looking towards EuropeIn Carney’s first foreign visit as prime minister, he bypassed Washington opting instead to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.
The symbolism was clear: Canada is looking elsewhere for dependable allies.
That shift is not just diplomatic theatre. The Carney-Macron meeting produced agreements on cybersecurity, clean energy and artificial intelligence, and reaffirmed both countries’ support for Ukraine.
This new strategic alignment has deep roots – particularly in Quebec, where cultural and historical ties to France have given the pivot to Europe added momentum and legitimacy.
“It’s not just short-term crisis management,” said Kurl. “Canada’s been burned before by Trump. During his first term, we saw the renegotiation of Nafta and a lot of anti-Canada trade rhetoric. But nothing really changed – the economy remained heavily tied to the US. This time, there’s a real sense that we need to act, not just wait it out."
That said, a full break with the US is not on the cards.
“There can never be a complete divorce,” Kurl concedes. “Our economies are deeply intertwined, and we share a very, very long border. But there is a renewed focus: Canada must diversify its economic relationships. It can’t afford not to."
French PM defends Ceta trade deal on visit to Canada, despite lawmakers' rejection
For voters, this election is about who can best protect Canada’s independence, its values and its interests, in an increasingly volatile international environment.
As Kurl said: "Canadians are taking this election very seriously, because they know what’s at stake. The question is no longer just, who should lead us? It’s, where do we go from here?"
The global car industry is facing major upheaval after US President Donald Trump imposed a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports in early April – the highest so far in the US-China trade dispute.
The tariffs, which apply to dozens of countries including US allies, aim to protect American manufacturing. But they are also making car production and trade more expensive and complicated, especially for automakers and consumers in the US and China.
Bill Russo, CEO of Automobility, a Shanghai-based think tank, said the auto industry has long depended on large, low-cost markets, with China at the centre. He said the new tariffs disrupt this model by raising costs and making it harder for companies using cheaper Chinese production to stay competitive.
US automakers and consumers are likely to face higher costs, he said, while Chinese carmakers will be less affected because they do not rely heavily on the US market.
The US tariffs are also likely to change how the European Union deals with China.
While the EU has already imposed its own tariffs on Chinese goods, mainly electric cars, Beijing and Brussels are now more likely to work together in response to Washington’s “America First” approach.
EU votes to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
Thousands of young people across Turkey are protesting against the jailing of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival. Many say they no longer fear prison, claiming they have nothing left to lose.
University students were among the first to take to the streets after Imamoglu was detained last month. They believe his arrest was politically motivated, though the government denies this.
“We are all sick and tired of the oppression that has been going on for such a while, and we are all fed up with it,” said an Istanbul university student who did not want to be named for fear of retribution.
“All these things that happened to Ekrem Imamoglu and all the other political people that are sent to jail, we are just fed up. We can't take it anymore, so we are here to protest against the government.”
For another student, the protests go beyond Imamoglu’s case.
“Everyone realises that it is not just a problem about Ekrem Imamoglu. We have a lot of problems in our country because of the economy, the inflation, because of the justice, because of the femicide, we have a lot of problems with our country,” she said.
Turkey's rivalry with Iran shifts as US threats create unlikely common ground
Youth defy fear of arrestThe protests are the largest seen against Erdogan’s government in more than 10 years.
Until now, political apathy, a weak opposition and a harsh crackdown on dissent have left few willing to challenge Erdogan’s AK Party. But the country’s youth are emerging as a key force for change.
“They were really the ones that carried the first protests, they were the vanguards,” said Sezin Oney, a political commentator with Halk TV.
Oney said many young people are losing hope due to widespread nepotism and corruption.
“If you are not connected to somebody, even if you get the best education, then it does not matter; you have to have connections; this is how they are feeling," she said.
"They are striving for certain values; they are describing it as something that has to do with justice, with democracy, everything this government doesn't represent."
Turkey's opposition calls for boycott as anti-Erdogan protests continue
Economy in free fallTurkey’s youth have grown up in a country where 90 percent of the media is controlled by the state or its allies, and schools are designed to produce what Erdogan once called a loyal, pious generation.
But that goal seems out of reach. “An overwhelming majority of the young people right now in Turkey prefer a pluralistic democratic system to a one-man strong system,” said Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul Economics Research, a polling firm.
Selcuki said the sharp divides between secular and religious youth, once used by Erdogan to hold onto power, are fading as shared economic problems take centre stage. Turkey faces double-digit inflation and high youth unemployment.
“As the economy is spiralling down, these young people find more common denominators in this worsening economy, making identity leverages disappear,” said Selcuki.
“So the bad situation of the economy is bringing these young people together in a more socio-economic level, from a more class perspective.”
Erdoğan tightens his grip with crackdown on protests while Europe stays silent
Crackdown on dissent widensThe unrest has now spread to high schools, after the government decided to redeploy tens of thousands of teachers. Pupils in schools across the country have staged rare protests.
Erdogan has reportedly asked his party to investigate the causes of the growing discontent.
For now, the government is vowing to crack down. Court cases have begun against hundreds of protestors, most of them students, with prosecutors seeking up to three-year prison terms.
Many detainees say they were beaten in custody, which authorities deny.
New laws are also being discussed to curb further unrest. “There is a new crime they (the government) are trying to formulate, ‘disturbing the public order.’ When you create this crime, then you can arrest basically anyone,” said Oney.
“But I don't think it will succeed. The thing is especially the youth is thinking they have nothing to lose, they have reached their tipping point. There will be more arrests and more protests, it will be a vicious cycle, unfortunately.”
Turkey is already seeing record numbers of highly educated people leave the country, but many young protestors say leaving is not an option. For them, staying and resisting is the only choice they have left.
With Ankara warning Tehran not to undermine Syria’s new rulers and its ongoing peace efforts with Kurdish rebels, regional rivalry with Iran has been intensifying. However, Turkey’s concerns about potential US military action against Iran over its nuclear energy programme are now providing a rare point of convergence between the two rivals.
After months of diplomatic barbs and threats exchanged between Ankara and Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Wednesday praised his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, for what he described as a “constructive and supportive position” regarding the indirect US-Iranian talks in Oman over Iran’s nuclear energy programme.
Oman TalksThe Oman talks aim to avert a possible US military strike on Iran, an option that President Donald Trump has not ruled out. Despite the strained relations with Tehran, avoiding confrontation remains a priority for Ankara.
“Turkey would be concerned for many reasons,” claims Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, who heads the German Marshall Fund’s office in Ankara.
“This would be just another war on Turkey’s borders. Turkey would have to deal with difficult problems, and instability in Iran would almost certainly lead to an additional wave of refugees,” he added.
Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace
Turkish diplomatic tensions with Iran have been on the rise, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issuing thinly veiled threats to Tehran, urging it not to interfere in Ankara’s efforts to end the conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long campaign for greater minority rights within Turkey.
“Ankara believes that Iran is trying to undermine this [peace] process both in Turkey and in Syria,” observes Serhan Afacan, who heads the Centre for Iranian Studies, a research organisation based in Ankara.
In February, the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, called for his organisation to disarm. With the PKK operating from bases in Iraq and having an affiliated group in Syria, Ankara has frequently accused Tehran of using the PKK as a proxy in its regional contest for power and influence. Afacan contends that Ankara fears Tehran still holds sway over the Kurdish rebels.
“Especially in Syria, Iran might try to convince them not to respond positively to Öcalan’s call – this has been Turkey’s main concern,” warned Afacan.
Iranian uneaseThe recent ousting of long-time Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has deprived Iran of a key ally, while Syria’s new rulers are aligned with Ankara rather than Tehran. A peace agreement between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels would only deepen Iran’s unease over Turkey’s growing regional influence.
“Turkey is about to end the PKK through its policies both domestically and regionally, and this is causing a kind of panic on the Iranian side,” observes Bilgehan Alagöz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Marmara University. “Iran sees this as a threat to its regional influence and a development that could empower Turkey,” Alagöz added.
Nevertheless, Syria’s Kurdish-led militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which maintains close ties with the PKK, has stated it is not bound by Öcalan’s call to disarm. Although it has agreed in principle with Syria’s new rulers to merge its forces, the precise terms of the arrangement remain unclear.
Syria’s new leadershipTensions also persist between the SDF and Syria’s new leadership. The Kurdish-led militia continues to demand greater autonomy within Syria — a position opposed by Damascus’s new rulers and their backers in Ankara. Turkey suspects Tehran of favouring a decentralised and weakened Syria — a goal analysts say is also shared by Israel.
“The Middle East makes strange bedfellows,” notes Gallia Lindenstrauss, a foreign policy expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Sometimes, these things unfold in ways that are surprising.”
Lindenstrauss also questions the Israeli government’s zero-sum view of Turkey, which it sees as both a rival and a supporter of Syria’s new rulers.
He told RFI: “I’m not sure this idea of a decentralised Syria is fully thought through by Jerusalem. I know there’s a lot of intellectual energy devoted to this line of thinking. But clearly, we don’t want Iran to use Syria to its advantage. A centralised regime might be a better scenario for Syria. But that comes at a cost — and the cost is increased Turkish involvement and influence in Syria. So, there is a dilemma.”
Last month, Fidan angered Tehran by warning that Iran could face instability if it attempted to destabilise Syria — a statement some analysts interpret as a veiled reference to Iran’s sizeable and often restive Turkish minority, which is viewed with suspicion by Tehran.
Ünlühisarcıklı believes Ankara sees itself as gaining the upper hand in its regional rivalry with Tehran, yet remains cautious about the risks posed by a potential US-Iran conflict.
Turkey’s Erdogan sees new Trump presidency as opportunity
“Turkey has outcompeted Iran, and it has no objection to Iran being further weakened,” Ünlühisarcıklı remarked.
“But Turkey would have a serious problem with Iran being targeted militarily, as that would destabilise the entire region.”
Avoiding such a conflict now offers common ground for Turkey and its long-time regional competitor Iran — a relationship often described as a delicate balance between cooperation and competition.
Analysts expect this balancing act to be severely tested in the months to come.
The Turkish opposition has vowed to fight "until the end" against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with the leader of the CHP party accusing the head of state of staging a "coup" in arresting Istanbul's opposition mayor.
Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel has demanded a snap election that he said would serve as the "biggest no confidence vote in history" against President Erdogan, following the arrest last month of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, seen as the president's chief challenger.
"Erdogan carried out a coup against his own rival. He carried out a coup against the next president of Turkey, our presidential candidate. That is why our resistance and struggle against this will continue until the end," Ozel told French news agency AFP.
Imamoglu's arrest sparked the biggest opposition protests to grip Turkey since 2013, although the demonstrations have dipped in intensity over the past 10 days amid holidays marking the end of Ramadan.
To maintain momentum, the CHP is now calling for rallies in an Istanbul district every Wednesday and a rally on Sunday in the key port city of Samsun, on the Black Sea.
Polls indicate that Imamoglu could end Erdogan's almost quarter-century grip on power if he was allowed to stand in Turkey's 2028 presidential election
The Istanbul mayor was arrested on 19 March on charges related to corruption and organised crime. He appeared in court on Friday on charges of insulting a public official, with prosecutors calling for a seven-year jail sentence.
Imamoglu denies all charges and claims the accusations are politically motivated.
EU urges Turkey to 'uphold democratic values' after mass arrests at protests
Calls for boycottThe CHP is now also aiming to broaden the protest campaign by boycotting businesses linked to Erdogan and his supporters.
"Ozel realised that just inviting people to the streets is not going to help much," political consultant Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners told RFI.
"There is a large segment of Turkish society that, either because they fear the police or [for cultural reasons], are not used to protesting on the streets. Now, this boycott campaign allows everyone, whether they are CHP voters or not, to show their support by simply not buying anything."
Social media videos urging the boycott identify the companies linked to Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK), from supermarkets to coffee shop chains.
The British rock group Muse cancelled their upcoming concerts in Turkey following calls by the opposition, as the promoter was linked to Erdogan's AK Party.
"The boycott is the right decision, it is a long overdue decision that needs to be made," said one tradesman, who didn't want to be identified. "If the government continues in this way, the country will get worse. The boycott initiated by Ozgur Ozel is very relevant. We are participating as tradesmen. The shopkeepers in the area all participate."
Erdoğan tightens his grip with crackdown on protests while Europe stays silent
Students releasedHowever, others have questioned the tactics. "I am totally against the boycott call," one local said. "It is our national income, and there is no point in boycotting some to cover up the theft of others. Let them [the opposition] get elected, let them take over the country, that's what I am saying."
Erdogan is threatening to punish those behind the boycott campaign. "Every kind of sabotage aimed at Turkey's economy and the nation's prosperity and peace will be held accountable in court," he told parliament.
Police have begun arresting people in dawn raids for social media posts supporting the boycott.
Almost 2,000 people, including many students, have been arrested in the crackdown on the protests in support of Imamoglu. However, an Istanbul court on Friday ordered the release of 59 young demonstrators, on top of 107 who were detained earlier.
The court explained its decision by pointing to the "risk of interruption of their studies" for the students accused.
The European Union faces a formidable challenge in bolstering its defence capabilities without dependence on the United States, following President Donald Trump's persistent calls for Europe to shoulder a greater share of the burden. Meanwhile, transatlantic trade relations are deteriorating, as Trump imposes punitive tariffs that could potentially impact arms trade between the US and the EU.
With plans to raise defence spending to €800 billion, the European Union must navigate the political pressure from the United States to continue procuring American-made weaponry, while addressing the practical necessity of cultivating its own defence industrial base.
Currently, many European weapon systems rely on US components, making it difficult for the EU to become entirely self-sufficient in defense production. The Eurofighter and Gripen aircraft, for example, contain a significant American components, and strategic air defense systems like the Patriot are hard to replace.
The EU's goal of creating a common defense union is politically challenging, but necessary for enhancing collective security.
This involves developing joint command and control structures, similar to those of the US and Russia, which would significantly improve European military effectiveness.
However, achieving full independence from US military support may prove to be a daunting task.
RFI's Jan van der Made spoke with Alexandr Burilkov of Leuphana University in Lüneburg, Germany, who co-authored a report on the subject, Defending Europe without the US, published by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Turkey’s opposition is accusing Europe of abandoning those fighting to keep democracy alive, as European leaders and the EU offer only muted criticism over the jailing of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the crackdown on protests.
Rubber bullets, water cannons, and mass arrests continue to meet demonstrators protesting the detention of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival. Yet, the EU is treading cautiously. "The arrest of the mayor is deeply concerning. As a member of the Council of Europe and an EU candidate country, Turkey must uphold democratic rights," said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
EU and UK reactions
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, once a human rights lawyer, has so far remained silent on İmamoğlu’s arrest. Only one of his aides issued a muted statement, saying the UK expects Turkey’s judicial process to be respected.
Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrest
Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition CHP party, has lashed out at Europe’s response. "Those who champion democracy at home but empower autocracy in Turkey — those who say, ‘We’ll give the money so the Syrians are taken care of’ — will know this government will change next year. When all is said and done, Turkey will remember the silence of its friends more than the voices of its enemies," Özel told supporters.
The UK and EU rely on Turkey to act as Europe’s gatekeeper, hosting millions of Syrian refugees in exchange for billions of euros in aid.
Erdoğan’s two-decade grip on power, having repeatedly defeated the opposition at the polls, has left European leaders feeling powerless. "The consensus is that this is something we cannot change, something we cannot influence from outside. Europeans have mistakenly concluded they have no leverage over Turkey," says Aslı Aydıntaşbaş of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
But Aydıntaşbaş insists Europe still has powerful tools at its disposal. "Of course, Europeans have had — and still have — enormous leverage, particularly economic leverage, especially through Turkey’s EU accession process. But they simply don’t want to push."
Erdoğan’s importance to Europe is only growing, as European leaders scramble to strengthen their defences against a resurgent Russia and an unreliable United States. With NATO’s second-largest army, Turkey is increasingly seen as critical to Europe’s security.
"Turkey is more important than ever in this era of brutal geopolitical realities; it stands between two wars. President Erdoğan has been masterful in playing the West off against Russia, and the US against Europe. He has become an indispensable middle power — not exactly an ally, but certainly not someone you want to cross," Aydıntaşbaş explains.
"Europeans are interested in bringing Turkey closer into European defence plans," she adds. "The Americans, too, see Turkey as essential to stabilising Syria. Western countries simply don’t want to risk pushing Erdoğan away."
Further arrests as Turkey cracks down on protests over jailed Istanbul mayor
EU and Turkey
Even before Europe’s lukewarm reaction to İmamoğlu’s arrest and the crackdown on protests, Turkey’s opposition had accused the EU of abandoning Turkish democracy. Local human rights groups, still battling to defend civil liberties, claim the EU has quietly been cutting its funding since Erdoğan’s election victory in 2023.
"There’s a visible hesitation among international donors when it comes to Turkey," warns Sinan Gökçen, Turkey representative for the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders.
"When it comes to bilateral or intergovernmental funding, the refugee deal with the EU remains central to Turkey’s relations with Europe. No one wants to upset that. In fact, no one wants to risk provoking Turkey," Gökçen adds.
Turkey’s opposition, however, shows no such restraint. As many as two million people took to the streets of Istanbul last Saturday to protest against Erdoğan and İmamoğlu’s arrest. CHP Deputy Chairman İlhan Uzgel says that with Turkish democracy at breaking point, he is dismayed by Europe’s silence — but remains confident in the people’s resolve.
"We are losing our democracy. Every other day, a businessperson, a trade unionist, a student, a journalist, a doctor, an ordinary citizen, or an academic is taken into custody. We are facing our authoritarian leader alone," Uzgel declared.
The CHP has vowed to continue mobilising mass protests across the country, stepping up its resistance. With Erdoğan accusing the opposition of treason and rebellion, further mass arrests are expected, along with legal moves against the party itself. Whatever the outcome of the battle for Turkey’s democracy, Europe’s leaders seem destined to be remembered as bystanders.
The conviction of far-right figure Marine Le Pen has thrown her National Rally (RN) party into turmoil. She was sentenced to four years in prison and banned from public office for five years, a ruling that could stop her from running in the 2027 presidential election. Once deeply controversial, the RN has gained popularity in recent years as it seeks to distance itself from its troubled past.
The National Rally, formerly the National Front, has a complex history, having transformed from a party once openly sympathetic to Nazi ideologies into one that now seeks broader legitimacy, including forging alliances with pro-Israeli groups – a strategic shift aimed at expanding its appeal.
This evolution mirrors wider trends among far-right movements across Europe and the United States, where such groups have sought to rebrand themselves in pursuit of mainstream acceptance.
RFI’s Jan van der Made speaks with Nafeez Ahmed, author of Alt Reich, which explores the dark origins of many contemporary far-right movements.
The lawyer of Istanbul's jailed mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has now been arrested, alongside several more journalists, following the country's biggest demonstrations against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2013.
Ten days after the arrest and subsequent jailing of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, thousands of demonstrators have continued to protest on the streets of Istanbul, despite a ban.
A popular opposition politician, Imamoglu is seen as the only person capable of defeating Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the polls in 2028.
Imamoglu was arrested last Wednesday on corruption and terror charges and remains in jail.
Turkey braces for more protests over Istanbul mayor's arrest
Despite this, his party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), declared him its presidential candidate in absentia, after holding a symbolic nationwide vote last weekend that saw almost 15 million people cast a ballot.
On Thursday night, police raided more homes, with Imamoglu saying his lawyer Mehmet Pehlivan had been "detained on fictitious grounds," in a post published via the mayor's legal team on social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
It was not immediately clear why Pehlivan had been detained, but opposition broadcaster Halk TV said his arrest was linked to allegations of "laundering assets originating from a crime".
Young protestersThe Istanbul Bar Association meanwhile said 20 minors had been arrested between 22 and 25 March on charges of violating a ban on protests.
Of these 20, 13 had been released but seven were still in custody, it said in a statement posted on X, adding that it was "closely following" the matter.
Many of those demonstrating have only ever known Erdogan as Turkey's leader.
"We have the right to vote, we have the right to choose whoever we want to rule us. But he [Erdogan] is taking that right from us," one protestor, who wished to remain anonymous, told RFI.
Turkey's Erdogan wins election, extending rule to third decade
Another demonstrator who also did not want to give his name added: "We want democracy, we want the people to choose who is elected. We want the free will to choose who we want without them being imprisoned."
The unrest is at a level unseen since the Gezi protests of 2013, which almost saw Erdogan ousted. Demonstrations have spread across the country since last week, even reaching the president's traditional strongholds.
Students have launched a nationwide boycott of universities, and opposition leaders are warning of a new escalation in their protests.
Strategy could backfireTurkey expert Gonul Tol of the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank told RFI that Erdogan's strategy may backfire this time.
"In 2019, when Ekrem Imamoglu won the municipal elections in Istanbul, Erdogan didn't accept the result and called for a rerun," she explained.
"While in the first round, Imamoglu won by a razor-thin majority, in the second round people got so angry and frustrated that they handed Imamoglu a bigger win. So this could easily backfire, and now that there are hundreds of thousands of people on the streets, this could turn into something much bigger than Erdogan had expected."
However, Erdogan has doubled down, warning that protestors will pay a heavy price.
"Those who are involved in treason and who set up an ambush for the brotherhood of the nation will sooner or later be held accountable to justice," he told his AK Party parliamentary deputies on Wednesday.
Turkish radio ban is latest attack on press freedom, warn activists
The president has also taken aim at the media. Turkish authorities on Wednesday detained BBC journalist Mark Lowen, then deported him on the grounds he posed "a threat to public order," the UK broadcaster said.
Also on Thursday, Turkey's government-controlled regulatory authority slapped the independent Sozcu TV station with a 10-day broadcast ban and a fine, pointing to alleged violations linked to incitement to "hatred and hostility".
Police also detained two Turkish journalists in dawn raids on their homes, the Turkish Journalists' Union (TGS) said on X.
Deputy chairman of the CHP party Ilhan Uzgel says early elections are the only way to put an end to the crisis.
He warned: "It's damaging the image of the country, it's damaging the economy, it's damaging the social structure of the society in Turkey. The judiciary is the least trusted institution in Turkey; it can't continue like this."
Anger is mounting over the arrest of Istanbul's popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption and terror charges. Seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, Imamoglu was arrested on Wednesday, just days before he was due to be named as the candidate for the main opposition CHP party in the 2028 presidential election.
Imamoglu's opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has denounced the detention as a "coup" and vowed to keep up the demonstrations, which by Thursday night had spread to at least 32 of Turkey's 81 provinces, according to a count by French news agency AFP.
Opposition leader Ozgur Ozel told supporters: "This is not the time for politics in rooms and halls but on the streets and squares."
Imamoglu was arrested in a pre-dawn raid on Wednesday, on corruption and terror charges, ahead of his expected election on Sunday as the CHP's candidate for Turkey's presidential elections in 2028.
According to political analyst Mesut Yegen of the Reform Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank, Imamoglu is more than just a mayor.
"Imamoglu is now [Erdogan's] main rival, it's obvious," Yegen told RFI, adding that as Istanbul's mayor he has a unique opportunity. "Istanbul is important for the resources it has, it's the biggest municipality. Here in Turkey, municipalities are important to finance politics."
Popular appealOpinion polls give Imamoglu – who defeated Erdogan's AK party three times in mayoral elections – a double-digit lead over Erdogan. This is because he is widely seen as reaching beyond his secular political base to religious voters, nationalists and Turkey's large Kurdish constituency.
Some observers see Imamoglu's arrest as a sign that Erdogan is reluctant to confront the mayor in presidential elections.
"If Erdogan could beat him politically with regular rules, he would love that. But he cannot be doing that. Erdogan wants to take him out of the political sphere one way or the other," explained Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's independent Politikyol news outlet.
"The competitive side has started to be too much of a headache for the presidency, so they want to get rid of the competitive side and emphasise the authoritarian side, with Imamoglu as the prime target," she said.
Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscape
Turkey's justice minister Yilmaz Tunc has angrily rejected claims that Imamoglu's prosecution is politically motivated, insisting the judiciary is independent.
Erdogan sought to play down the protests, saying on Friday that Turkey "will not surrender to street terror" and discouraged any further demonstrations.
"We, as a party and individuals, have no time to waste on the opposition's theatrics. We are focused on our work and our goals," Erdogan declared.
Imamoglu's arrest comes as Turkey's crisis-ridden economy took another hit, with significant falls on the stock market and its currency falling by more than 10 percent as international investors fled the Turkish market.
'Out of sight, out of mind'However, Oney suggests Erdogan will be banking on a combination of fear and apathy eventually leading to the protests dissipating, and that Imamoglu, like other imprisoned political figures in Turkey, will be marginalised.
"The government is counting on the possibility that once Imamoglu is out of sight, [he will be] out of mind," she predicts. "So he will just be forgotten, and the presidency will have its way [more easily]."
Turkey is no stranger to jailing politicians, even leaders of political parties. However, Oney warns that with Imamoglu facing a long prison sentence if convicted, the significance of such a move should not be underestimated.
"It's going to be extremely detrimental to Turkish democracy. You have jailing of politicians, but someone on the scale of Imamoglu will be unique," she said.
Despite Imamoglu's detention, the CHP vowed it would press ahead with its primary on Sunday, at which it would formally nominate him as its candidate for the 2028 race.
The party said it would open the process to anyone who wanted to vote, not just party members, saying: "Come to the ballot box and say 'no' to the coup attempt!"
Observers said the government could seek to block the primary, to prevent a further show of support for Imamgolu.
The overthrow of Bachar al-Assad's regime in Syria and its replacement by new rulers with close ties to Turkey are ringing alarm bells in Israel. RFI's correspondent reports on how Ankara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry could impact Syria's future.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's already strong support for the militant group Hamas has strained relations with Israel.
Now, Syria is threatening to become a focal point of tension.
Earlier this month, Erdogan issued a widely interpreted warning to Israel to stop undermining Damascus's new rulers.
"Those who hope to benefit from the instability of Syria by provoking ethnic and religious divisions should know that they will not achieve their goals," Erdogan declared at a meeting of ambassadors.
Erdogan's speech followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's offer to support Syria's Druze and Kurdish minorities.
"We will not allow our enemies in Lebanon and Syria to grow," Netanyahu told the Knesset. "At the same time, we extend our hand to our Druze and Kurdish allies."
Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv told RFI that Israel view is not very optimistic about the future of Syria, and sees it as a potential threat to Israel.
Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda
"The fact that Turkey will be dominant in Syria is also dangerous for Israel," adds Lindenstrauss.
"Turkey could build bases inside Syria and establish air defences there. This would limit Israel’s room for manoeuvre and could pose a threat. Israel wants to avoid this and should therefore adopt a hard-line approach."
Deepening rivalryAnkara and Jerusalem’s deepening rivalry is shaping conflicting visions for the future of Syria.
Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics' Contemporary Turkish Studies Department, "Turkey wants to see a secure and stabilised unitary state under Ahmad al-Sharaa’s transitional government.
"Israel, on the other hand, wants to see a weak and fragmented Syria. Its main concern has always been securing its northern border," added Nasi.
Israeli forces are occupying Syrian territory along their shared northern border, which is home to much of Syria’s Druze minority.
However, Israeli hopes of drawing Syria's Kurds away from Damascus suffered a setback when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls part of Syria, signed an agreement on 10 March to merge part of its operations with Syria’s transitional government.
Mutual distrustAs Damascus consolidates control, analysts suggest Israel will be increasingly concerned about Turkey expanding its military presence inside Syria.
"If Turkey establishes military posts in the south of the country, close to the Israeli border, presumably with the permission of the government in Damascus," warns Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, "then the two sides would be in close proximity, with military forces on both sides. That, I believe, would create a highly dangerous, volatile, and incendiary situation."
As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies ahead
Analysts warn that if Turkey extends its military presence to include airbases, this could threaten Israel’s currently unchallenged access to Syrian airspace.
However, some observers believe that opportunities for cooperation may still exist.
"Things can change," says Israeli security analyst Lindenstrauss.
"Israel and Turkey could resume cooperation and potentially contribute to Syria’s reconstruction in a way that does not threaten Israel. However, this does not appear to be the path the Erdogan regime is currently taking, nor does it seem to be the direction chosen by Netanyahu and his government."
With Erdogan and Netanyahu making little secret of their mutual distrust, analysts warn that their rivalry is likely to spill over into Syria, further complicating the country’s transition from the Assad regime.
France's recent military withdrawals from the Sahel and West Africa are leaving a void that Turkey is keen to exploit, experts told RFI. But while Turkey is profiting from its position as a NATO member and experienced arms exporter, it needs to be careful not to overstretch itself in terms of resources on the continent.
France's handover of its sole base in Côte d'Ivoire and a pullout in January from Chad are part of a broader reduction of the French army's presence across the region.
"What we are living in now is a transformational age," international relations expert Federico Donelli of Trieste University told RFI.
"Many traditional players like France, for example, in that region of Africa are downgrading their own engagement in this area. Not because they have some economic or political constraint but because the local states want them to leave the region."
Donelli believes the door is now open to new players, such as Turkey.
"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invested heavily in Africa, quadrupling Turkey's embassy presence across Africa in the past two decades. Erdogan, a devout Muslim, also plays the Muslim card and reminds his African audiences of France's colonial past," he says.
Insurgent threatsHowever, Eylem Tepeciklioglu of Ankara's Social Sciences University believes the breakthrough for Turkey came with the French military failing to deal with insurgent threats in the Sahel and broader West Africa.
"The image of France is in tatters because the regional countries criticise French missions for failing to help them fight with terrorist groups and for bringing more harm than good," explains Tepecikoglu.
Tepeciklioglu claims Erdogan's Africa policy caught the regional zeitgeist.
"Together with rising anti-French sentiments, this brings opportunities for other countries to step in, and Turkey has several defense or mutual cooperation agreements with Sahelian countries. And according to some sources, Turkey has deployed military advisers and drones at the Abéché base in Chad," adds Tepeciklioglu.
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Deepening Senegalese and Turkish military ties was on the agenda at an Istanbul meeting in October. Shortly after the high-profile gathering, Senegal called for the removal of French forces.
Turkey's vibrant arms industry selling battle-proven weapons invariably cheaper than its Western competitors, as well as having few, if any, restrictions on use, is complementing Ankara's traditional diplomatic tools in its bid to broaden its influence.
"Turkish defense products are now very popular in African markets. So this also applies to Sahelian countries," explains Tepeciklioglu, "For example, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad acquired Turkish drones. While other Sahelian countries acquired other Turkish military equipment."
OverstretchTurkey remains a relatively small player against the giants of Russia, China, and the United States in the battle to secure economic and diplomatic influence.
But the growing competition between Western and Eastern powers could be to Turkey's advantage, says Donelli.
"So, for an African state, establishing a security agreement with Turkey is less costly in political terms in comparison with relations with Russia because that doesn't mean 'I break with the West, but I'm doing something with a NATO member'. This is really important," adds Donelli.
Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in Africa
But Turkey's rapid expansion into Africa does not come cheap what with diplomatic representations across the continent, growing military presence, such as army and naval bases in Libya and Africa.
"Turkey is expanding too much. This is called overstretch in diplomatic language," warns International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara Middle East Technical University.
"So, Turkey's military and economic capabilities are actually limited. The more you expand, the more you have to pay," he says, adding that such a strategy would not be sustainable.
With the Turkish economy mired in crisis and Erdogan looking to improve ties with Europe, including France, analysts say Turkey could be ready for cooperation rather than rivalry in Africa.
Turkish-backed forces have launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime.
The Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish air power, is pushing against the US-supported People's Defense Units (YPG), which Ankara claims is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades.
The YPG controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey, which Ankara says poses a security threat.
Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan says Turkey is determined to prevent the YPG and its affiliate the PKK from exploiting a power vacuum following the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
As Erdogan celebrates Turkish role in ousting Assad, uncertainty lies ahead
"We are in communication with the groups to make sure that terrorist organisations, especially Daesh [Islamic State] and the PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation," he said. "Turkey is committed to continuing the fight against terrorism. All minorities – non-Muslims, Christians, non-Arabs, Kurds – should be treated equally."
Opportunity for AnkaraEver since the YPG took over control of the Syrian territory at the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Ankara has been seeking to remove it.
With the ousting of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of its Iranian and Russian backers, which had in the past blocked Turkish military interventions, analysts say Ankara now sees an opportunity to finally remove the YPG threat.
"The current situation creates an opportunity for its [Turkey's] fight against PKK and YPG because there is now no Russia, there is no Iran," explains Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University.
"Turkey was facing the Russian forces, the Iranian forces, and Assad's regime forces while it was combatting the PKK and YPG," she added. "We can name it as an opportunity for its fight against PKK and YPG."
Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda
However, the YPG is still being supported by a small US military force, as part of the war against the Islamic State (IS). The YPG is also detaining thousands of IS militants.
'The Euphrates is a line'With the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army now approaching the Euphrates River, analysts say further eastward advances could put Ankara on a collision course with both Washington, and Syria's new rulers – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS.
"The Euphrates now is like a line perhaps for the US military," explains Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet.
"If that [military advance] goes on as such, it could bring Turkey indirectly head to head with the US, with even perhaps HTS, and it could put Ankara in a delicate diplomatic position again," warned Selcen.
Tensions with IsraelThe Israeli military's advance into Syria is adding to Ankara's concerns over the threat posed by the PYG and its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar last month described the Kurds as a "natural ally" of Israel, a comment that came amid growing Israeli-Turkish tensions.
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"Israel is now carving out a corridor [in Syria] between the PKK/PYD-controlled territories, and its own territories," explained Hasan Unal, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University.
"That suggests that this is what they [Israel] are trying to do – [to create] a Kurdish puppet state east of the Euphrates. And this is something that is likely to create lots of problems with Turkey," he added.
With Israel's presence in Syria, Ankara is likely to step up pressure on the YPG, and on the incoming Trump administration to end US military presence in Syria.
As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues, a collection of films titled From Ground Zero, created by Gaza-based filmmakers, has earned a place at the Oscars.
The project, overseen by Palestinian filmmaker Rashid Masharawi, includes 22 short films spanning documentary, animation, and drama.
The films aim to share the voices of people living through the conflict in Gaza, offering a glimpse into their fears, dreams and hopes.
"The idea for From Ground Zero came immediately, in the second month of this ongoing war, to try to pick up films and stories from Gaza," Masharawi told RFI.
He explained that the goal was to give filmmakers in Gaza the chance to make their own films.
As a recent report from Reporters Without Borders (RSF) underlines the toll of the war on Palestinian journalists, RFI spoke with him and his team in Paris.
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The shorts, ranging from three to six minutes, are "a mix between fiction, documentaries, video art and even experimental films," he said.
"We are filmmakers, we are dealing with cinema. Even if it's a catastrophe, it's very tough with all the massacres. But we were also trying to make cinema, to add life, to be optimistic and to add hope."
The 112-minute collection is presented as a feature film in two parts. Contributors include Reema Mahmoud, Muhammad Al Sharif, Tamer Nijim and Alaa Islam Ayou.
From film festivals to the OscarsAfter premiering at the Toronto Film Festival in September, From Ground Zero toured film festivals across Europe, North Africa and South West Asia in November and December.
Screenings have taken place at the French Arab Film Festival near Paris, the Bristol Palestine Film Festival and in London. Additional showings are scheduled for Morocco and Egypt.
Earlier this year, Masharawi held an outdoor screening of the film during the Cannes Film Festival to protest its exclusion from the event.
Now, the collection has been selected to represent Palestine at the Oscars in March 2025, with hopes of a wider release in the United States, Europe and the Middle East.
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Emerging voicesThe project was made possible by the Masharawi Fund for Gaza Filmmakers, launched in November 2023 to support creative talent from the territory.
Masharawi, who is from Gaza, is one of the first Palestinian filmmakers to have directed cinema projects in the occupied Palestinian territories.
His first film, Travel Document, was released in 1986, followed by The Shelter in 1989 and Long Days in Gaza in 1991.
The executive producer of the film, Laura Nikolov, who is French and based in France, is travelling with Masharawi to promote the film around the world.
"It's a very unique project," she told RFI. "We have now translated it into 10 different languages. We made this to allow the voices of the Gazan people [to be heard] and it's working. I think we've reached more than 60, perhaps 80 screenings and festivals."
With its selection for the Oscars, Nikolov is hopeful that the film will reach even wider audiences.
"This means it will be shown in cinemas in the United States," she said, adding that they hope to expand its reach across Europe and the Middle East.
Ankara, one of the principal backers of some of the Syrian rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad, is being seen as a winner in the overthrow of the Assad regime. However, analysts warn much of the success of the operation will depend on whether a stable government emerges.
This dramatic end to the Assad family's half-century rule over Syria marks a significant shift in the region'sbalance of power, with analysts predicting that Turkey’s influence in Syria could now grow at the expense of its regional rivals.
"Turkey emerged… by proving its relevance, importance and its strength… out of these latest developments in Syria… as the clean, clear winner," says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet.
"And Iran is definitely the loser. And Russia also is pushed aside."
Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army played a role in the overthrow of Assad. However, it was the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahir Al Sham – or HTS – that led the offensive. And that, analysts say, will be a cause for apprehension in Ankara.
"Despite all the jubilation of the Turkish press and the government and the circles that support the government about the collapse of the Assad regime in general, I would think there is some uneasiness," says Hasan Unal, professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University.
"I can see it through lots of problematic issues that would be coming out of what's going to happen," he added, "because of the ideological Islamist leanings of the incumbent government and… the Islamic jihadist terrorist groups associated with it."
Support and protectionHowever, Turkey may not be entirely without influence over Syria's new Islamist leaders. For years, it provided support and protection to the Idlib region of Syria, where HTS was based.
Analyst Aydin Selcen suggests Ankara could retain significant influence if recent statements by HTS leadership calling for an inclusive Syrian government are honoured.
"If pragmatism prevails, that's perhaps where Turkey and Ankara may come in. And also Ankara definitely will be viewed as a positive outside contributor by these new Syrian rulers, because of the fact that we here in Turkey are hosting over 5 million Syrians and also that Turkey helped protect Idlib."
Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, addressing an international conference in Doha last Sunday, 8 December, said that Turkey is committed to helping secure a politically inclusive new Syria.
Turkey's Syrian refugees A stable Syria is also key to Ankara's goal of sending home millions of Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. Public resentment over their presence has grown, as the country has grappled with an economic crisis over the past few years.
However, such a return may not be simple, predicts Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s independent Politikyol news site.
"The refugees, the Syrians you have in Turkey, are mostly women and children. So it has to be a [new Syrian] government, an administration, friendly to women and children, especially women."
"But we don't know if these Islamic jihadist groups will be really friendly towards these groups," he added.
"There might be a Taliban 2.0 arising just across the border; we don't know what kind of administration HTS and surrounding groups will be. It's a big security risk; I don't see Syria settling down to become a safe clash-free place."
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For now, Erdogan is celebrating the overthrow of Assad as a Turkish triumph, with European leaders and Washington queuing up to speak to him as Turkey positions itself as a key player in shaping Syria's future.
But the sudden demise of the Assad regime underscores how quickly fortunes can change in the region, and the future of Syria – and Turkey's role in it – are today more uncertain than ever.
The capture of Syria's major cities by rebel groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, fighting against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, offers Turkey the opportunity to achieve its strategic goals in the country.
The lightning offensive of Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which has seen the rebels capture several major Syrian cities in less than two weeks, gives Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leverage over his Syrian counterpart President Bashar al-Assad.
"Turkey can easily stop both [rebel] entities and start a process. Turkey does have this strength, and Assad is well aware of it," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank.
Until now, Assad has rejected Erdogan's overtures for dialogue to end the civil war peacefully. "The Turkish intention politically is not to escalate in Syria [but to] start a political, diplomatic engagement with the Assad regime, and come to the terms of a normal state, and that all Syrians safely return to their homes," Aslan noted.
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Syrian refugees an issueErdogan is seeking to return many of the estimated 4 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, amid growing public unease over their presence in the country.
"According to the opinion polls here, yes, the Syrian refugees [are] an issue. For any government, it would be a wonderful win to see these Syrians going back to Syria of their own will," explained Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news outlet.
However, Moscow has a lot to lose in Syria, as a key military backer of Assad, who in turn has granted Russia use of a key Syrian naval base. "For Moscow, it's of crucial importance that the personality of Assad remains in power," said Zaur Gasimov, a professor of history and a Russia specialist at the University of Bonn.
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Gasimov warns that Turkey could be facing another humanitarian crisis. "Russia would definitely use the military force of its aerospace forces, that can cause a huge number of casualties among civilians. Which means a new wave of migrants towards Turkish eastern Anatolia."
With more than a million Syrian refugees camped just across the Turkish border in the rebel-controlled Syrian Idlib province, analysts warn a new exodus into Turkey is a red line for Ankara.
"If they refresh their attacks on the captured areas by indiscriminate targeting... well [we can] expect further escalations in the region," warned Aslan of the pro-government SETA think tank. "And for sure there is a line that Turkey will not remain as it is, and if there is a development directly threatening the interests or security of Turkey, then Turkey will intervene."
Pushing back the YPGWith the Syrian rebel offensive also making territorial gains against the US-backed Kurdish militant group, the YPG, Ankara is poised to secure another strategic goal in Syria. Ankara accuses the YPG of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is fighting the Turkish state.
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"Without putting up a fight, and without getting directly involved, they [Ankara] have achieved one of their goals – for YPG to pull back from the Turkish frontier towards the south," explained Selcen. "I think Ankara now is closer to that goal."
With Syrian rebel successes appearing to advance Ankara's goals in Syria, some analysts are urging caution, given the rebels' links to radical Islamist groups. "The crashing down of the Assad regime is not in the interest of Turkey, because there will be chaos," warned international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University.
"Who is going to rule? What type of [governing] structure are we going to have?" he asked. "They are radicals, and another Daesh-style territory would not be in the interest of Turkey – in Turkish prisons, there are thousands of Daesh people."
Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire, despite its close ties with Hamas, which have drawn criticism from Washington. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to "make every contribution" to end what he called the "massacre" in Gaza.
US President Joe Biden signalled this week that Turkey could have a role in mediating peace in the Middle East.
"The United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza," Biden told reporters.
However, US officials have downplayed Turkey’s mediating role due to Ankara’s ties to Hamas.
"We don't believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in ... a major city of one of our key allies and partners," US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said earlier.
Hamas tensionsHamas leaders reportedly relocated to Turkey after the collapse of ceasefire efforts in November.
Erdogan, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has described the group as a "liberation movement". Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Erdogan declared a national day of mourning.
"There are rumours, and I don’t know how true they are, that many of those people have actually received Turkish citizenship as well," Soli Ozel, a lecturer at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna told RFI.
In a move seen as an attempt to placate Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that there are no plans for Hamas to open a political bureau in Turkey.
Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin defended the policy: "Ankara will continue its position hosting Hamas number one. Number two, they will continue dialogue with Hamas in order to establish peace".
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Complex tiesDespite tensions between Turkey and Israel, they maintain back-channel communication.
In November, the head of Israel’s intelligence agency Shin Bet met his Turkish counterpart in Ankara. The meeting reportedly centred on the plight of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
"We have 101 hostages that are still, we don’t know their fate," says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies.
"There are attempts to at least receive information about who’s alive, who’s dead, who’s holding them – Hamas or Islamic Jihad."
Lindenstrauss cautioned that Israel remains sceptical of Turkey’s ability to act as a neutral mediator.
"It would be very hard for Israel in general and specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu to trust Turkey to be a mediator that will be respectful to both sides," she said.
While Erdogan’s public rhetoric often inflames tensions, analysts say Turkish-Israeli relations are shaped more by pragmatism than politics.
"Turkey and Israel have one way of dealing with one another in public and another way of dealing with one another diplomatically and in security cooperation," Ozel explains.
In a possible effort to build trust, Turkish authorities recently extradited three Uzbek suspects linked to the murder of an Israeli rabbi in the United Arab Emirates.
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Challenges remainAs Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a Gaza ceasefire for now.
"The reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas," Netanyahu said Tuesday.
"From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas."
Despite Ankara’s overtures, Israel has warned that Hamas leaders are not safe from targeting, even in Turkey.
"They will find these Hamas leaders and target them wherever they find them," Lindenstrauss maintains.
In Turkey, hundreds of new producers are growing the country's wine industry, and its international reputation – despite increasing taxation and controls by President Erdogan's religious, conservative government.
Grapes have been grown for centuries in Manisa, western Turkey. It is here that Fulya Akinci and her Spanish husband, Jose Hernandez Gonzalez, decided they wanted to be a part of the transformation of the country's wine industry.
"In 2005, in 2006, maybe when you went to a restaurant, you would order red wine or white wine, that was it," explains Akinci. "In the last 15 years, there has been a real boom. We have so many, we say, boutique wineries. Now, with these small wineries, the quality has changed a lot."
With their wine label Heraki, Akinci and Hernandez Gonzalez are part of this surge of new, small producers – a group which has grown to number around 200, from only a handful a decade ago. The couple trained at a wine school in Bordeaux and have worked in vineyards around the world. Hernandez Gonzalez explained that it was Turkey's untapped potential that persuaded him and Akinci to produce their own wine there.
"As a foreigner, when I came to Turkey I was really surprised about the biodiversity of different grape varieties," he said. "This is a country with many different grape varieties. Also, [there was] the potential of the soils and the climate. We have mountains, we have the coasts – many different climates to make grapes. And the potential of those grapes to make wine is huge."
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Government restrictionsHernandez Gonzales explained that rather than making wine from vines used worldwide, they decided to use indigenous grapes. "One of our main ideas here at Heraki was to make wines from those local grapes."
In five years, their production has increased from a couple of thousand to 20,000 bottles. But the couple says this has been an uphill struggle. "We have some difficulties because of the bureaucracy – so much paperwork – and some pressures over tax... so huge pressures on us. It's not easy at all," explained Akinci.
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK), which enjoys large support among Muslims, has, since coming to power in 2002, hiked alcohol taxes to 65 percent, among the highest in the world. There are also growing restrictions on wine production, sales and advertising. "We love making wine, but it's not easy at all. It's hard, and every day is getting worse and worse," said Akinci.
Turkey's broadcasting authorities banned images of alcohol on television back in 2013, and in much of the country securing alcohol licences is difficult.
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But meanwhile, government adverts promoting Turkey as a tourist destination abroad often highlight the country's wines as an attraction. With much of the wine industry based in tourism centres, experts say tourists are helping to drive demand and grow the reputation of Turkish wines.
International interest"Wine producers have started to get better prices for their wines. They can now make money, against all the odds. There is international interest," said wine consultant Sabiha Apaydın Gonenli. Through her Kok Koken Toprak Conference (Root Soil Wine Conference) international symposiums, she promotes Turkey's wine industry internationally.
However, she warns the industry still has a long way to go. "It's not that economically viable at the moment because it is very small. In order to market this, you need support. You can't do this alone, wine producers need to come together."
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As for Heraki wines, they are now being stocked at a top European restaurant and have secured a German distributor. But despite such successes, Akinci says wine-making in Turkey remains a bittersweet experience.
"One day, we are so happy to make wine here, and we are thinking about increasing the volume and making other things. Then another day, we're thinking about closing up and going to Spain."
The banning of an Istanbul-based independent radio station has sparked political condemnation and protests in Turkey. With a mission to bridge the country's cultural divides over the last 30 years, Acik Radio's closure is seen as part of the government's attempts to tighten its grip on the media.
Turkey's media regulator, RTUK, revoked the station's licence, claiming it had failed to comply with an earlier fine and suspension.
That order came after a guest earlier this year referred to the 1915 killings of Armenians by Turkey's then-Ottoman rulers as a genocide.
RTUK ruled that the comment incited public hatred. While Acik did pay the fine, it didn't come off air, saying it was appealing the initial ruling in court.
The revocation of its broadcasting licence has drawn international condemnation and alarm. "Acik Radio has always adopted a moderate language, reflecting various political views," Erol Onderoglu, the Turkey representative for Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) told RFI.
Onderoglu warns that banning Acik is part of a wider trend in the country of "eliminating media pluralism and weakening remaining minority voices". He continued: "It is in line with a political mission to impose a single official view on society, what they call national and patriotic journalism."
'Cultural hub'In Istanbul's Kadikoy district, listeners have been chanting in protest over Acik Radio's removal from the airwaves.
Elif Unal, an avid listener, said the station has been an important part of everyday life for a long time. "They ban everything that makes us smile, that makes us feel happy," she said. "Most of the people in Istanbul, across Turkey, open their eyes listening to Acik Radio. Acik Radio is important because it's a cultural hub and also a political supporter of many organisations, NGOs and activists."
Armenians warn ethnic cleansing risks being forgotten – again
Protestor Mete Atature said he grew up listening to Acik. "Whichever programme you are listening to, you'll learn something. Not like a lecture, not like an education programme, but there's always something it leaves you with, and I miss that."
He added: "From one side, of course, it's a shock. From another side, it's not unexpected, given the way the whole country is going. There is less and less free speech, and there's more oppression, and this is another example."
Diverse voicesSince its launch in 1994, Acik Radio has sought to bridge Turkey's deep cultural and political divides. Volunteers produce and present social and cultural programmes that represent the country's diverse population, including minorities.
YetvartDanzikyan hosted Acik's show "Radio Agos," a programme aimed at Turkey's Armenian minority.
"We tried to make the unheard voices of not only the Armenian community but also all the other minorities, the Greek, Jewish, and Suryani communities," he said, adding that they were trying to bring even more unheard voices to the station's programmes.
Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up
Turkey's main opposition parties are supporting the station, and say the closure is a government attempt to further tighten its grip on the country's media.
For now, Acik has returned to broadcasting via the internet, securing a licence under the new name of APACIK Radio.
But those who run the station feel they are fighting an uphill battle. "The general atmosphere is getting towards more repression in Turkey," Acik's co-founder Omer Madra said wearily. "But we are very determined to fight on, and we've had some magnificent support from all the regions of the country."
With Donald Trump on course to begin his second term as US president, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing renewed opportunities for collaboration – hoping to rekindle the close relationship the two shared during Trump’s first presidency.
Erdogan, who congratulated Trump as a "friend" on social media, sees this as a chance to reshape US-Turkey relations.
During Biden’s presidency, engagement was largely limited to foreign ministers – marking a stark contrast to the “strong leader-to-leader relationship” Erdogan and Trump had enjoyed, says analyst Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.
Trump and President Erdogan met face to face about nine times, compared to only two "brief encounters" with Biden, he adds.
ChemistryErdogan often speaks warmly of his dealings with Washington during Trump's first term in office.
"The chemistry is the same. Two charismatic leaders, two leaders who are unpredictable," notes Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University.
He believes their personal rapport could set the stage for greater bilateral and regional cooperation, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Erdogan has long sought to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given his close ties with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and, more controversially, with Vladimir Putin – a relationship that drew criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey's NATO partners.
"Trump will push for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that's something that Turkey has always preferred," predicts Asli Aydintasbas a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Turkey eyes US presidential race that stands to shake up mutual ties
YPG policyErdogan will also look to Trump for changes in US policy toward the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara views as linked to the PKK, a group fighting the Turkish state.
The YPG’s alliance with Washington against the Islamic State has strained US-Turkey relations, with Biden resisting Erdogan’s calls to end support for the group.
Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen predicts Erdogan will hope Trump might be open to a deal.
"Erdogan thinks that, like himself, Trump too is a pragmatic leader. So leaving aside principles or other such in brackets, the two sides can reach an agreement by giving and taking something between the two," says Selcen.
UnpredictabilityWhile Trump has often spoken positively about Erdogan, he nonetheless remains unpredictable.
“Can you rely on him?” asks Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish pro-government thinktank.
Tensions between Turkey and Israel could also complicate relations.
Erdogan has expressed hope that Trump will succeed where Biden failed in ending Israel’s war on Hamas and Hezbollah, but with Trump’s strong support for Israel and Erdogan’s backing of Hamas, a clash could be looming.
"What happens if there is an escalation in the Middle East with the polarisation of Israel and Turkey, as it currently is, and the attitude of Trump, it's very clear that the Trump administration will threaten Turkey," says Aslan.
With conflicts raging across the region, Erdogan views a new Trump presidency as an opportunity for Turkey and the region.
But given the leaders' unpredictability, that opportunity doesn't come without risks.
As the United States stands on the brink of what many are calling the most consequential presidential election in recent history, the nation is focused on the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump organised last-day rallies. RFI's Jan van der Made looks back at a campaign marked by unprecedented polarisation.
The bitter rivals embarked on a final frenzied campaign blitz Monday with both hitting must-win Pennsylvania on the last day of a tight and volatile US presidential election campaign.
Pennsylvania is the single biggest swing state prize under the US Electoral College system, which awards influence in line with population.
Republican Trump has promised a "landslide" as he seeks his return to the White House, while Democrat Harris said the "momentum" was on the side of her bid to be America's first woman president.
DeadlockBut the polls suggest a different story on the eve of Election Day – total deadlock in surveys nationally and in the seven swing states where the result is expected to be decided.
The world is anxiously watching the election, which is set to have profound implications for conflicts in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine, and for tackling climate change.
Both sides say they are encouraged by early turnout numbers, with over 78 million people having voted already, around half of the total number of ballots cast in 2020.
No middle groundThe closeness of the 2024 White House race reflects a deeply divided United States, as it chooses between two candidates whose visions could scarcely be more different.
Media outlets and political parties have poured millions of dollars into advertising campaigns that leave little room for middle ground.
This stark divide is a reflection of the American political system, where the winner-takes-all approach often marginalises third-party candidates and reinforces the dominance of the two major parties.
US elections: Who are the running mates for the key candidates?
As election day approaches, the spotlight has fallen on undecided voters who may ultimately tip the scales in this tight race.
Campaign volunteers have been working tirelessly, engaging directly with potential voters in an effort to sway opinions and drive turnout.
To discuss what is at stake, RFI's Jan van der Made spoke to analyst J. Wesley Leckrone, Chair Political Science Widener University, Daniel Hopkins, Political Scientist University of Pennsylvania and Daniel Laurison, Associate Professor Sociology at Swarthmore College and former campaigner for Barack Obama.
With the presidential election in the United States only days away, Turkey is watching the vote closely. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoyed a close working relationship with Donald Trump when he was president, analysts warn that a second term for Trump wouldn't come without risks for Ankara.
Erdogan has avoided commenting on the US election, but Ankara sees the outcome of the 5 November vote as key for Turkish-US relations.
Each of the contenders, Vice-President Kamala Harris and Trump, are expected to take significantly different approaches to Turkey's long-time leader.
"During the past Trump presidency, the political relationship at the highest level between Erdogan and Trump was a strong one," says Sinan Ulgen, head of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul think tank.
Ties with President Joe Biden have been notably less friendly, however, if Harris were to win the relationship with Erdogan is likely to be a much more shallow one, Ulgen believes.
Face-to-face timeErdogan met Trump nine times during his 2017-21 presidency, including on a state visit to Washington.
In contrast, he met Biden only briefly on the sidelines of international summits, with US-Turkish relations mainly conducted at foreign-minister level.
"Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, either in the US capital or in the Turkish capital," says international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
"For Erdogan, leader-to-leader talks are key to achieving his goals. And probably, he thinks deep down that he can sort out many things through personal contact, connections or personal engagement."
Such interaction, especially with the most powerful person in the world, is also seen as vital to Erdogan's status at home.
"It's very important for his domestic standing and legitimacy," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
"He has built a personalised system but also convinced voters, particularly his base, that he is a consequential leader, that Turkey is rising, that he is very important, he is on par with the US president and the Russian president, that everybody is looking up to Erdogan."
Turkey and Russia closer than ever despite Western sanctions
Lack of chemistry?Aydintasbas questions how easy it would be for Erdogan to develop a relationship with Harris, even if she were ready to engage more directly than Biden.
"I cannot imagine what type of chemistry Harris and Erdogan would have. They don't come from similar backgrounds. It's difficult to imagine the two developing a very close personal relationship, to be honest," the analyst says.
Erdogan has often spoken warmly of his relationship with Trump – despite the fact he got hit by sanctions during his time in the White House over the detention of an American pastor, prompting the Turkish lira to crash in 2018.
Trump once even vowed to "totally destroy and obliterate" the Turkish economy over Turkey's threats to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces.
"We have memories of the threats and sanctions," warns Murat Aslan of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara.
Invoking the 2018 crisis, Aslan said: "Rather than words, I think deeds are important."
Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy
High-risk candidateThe Middle East is another potential sticking point.
Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could again emerge between the US and Turkish leaders.
"Trump's approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually escalate the tension in the Middle East to the extent that a regional war could be unavoidable," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who directs the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara.
"So yes, a Trump presidency has many opportunities for Turkey – but at a very high risk."
Meanwhile, though there has been little direct contact between Biden and Erdogan, Turkish-US relations have shown signs of improvement in recent months.
With the two Nato allies increasingly cooperating and better managing their differences, Aydintasbas suggests, there are merits for Ankara to both candidates.
"A Kamala Harris administration would mean more continuity, but the promise of stability in Turkish-US relations," she says. "Whereas Trump is so unpredictable that it could be very good one day, very bad one day."
With the Middle East war continuing to rage, Trump's unpredictability remains a risk to Ankara – but Erdogan will likely still covet the opportunity to renew his relationship with the US strongman.
A year of war in Gaza has undermined international law and threatens to make the strip uninhabitable, according to the United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese. She tells RFI why she is making the case for Israel's offensive to be classified a genocide.
More than 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing extremely critical levels of hunger, according to the UN. Seventy percent of crop fields and livelihoods have been destroyed during the Israeli military offensive.
The war, which has claimed 42,000 lives in Gaza and left hundreds of thousands wounded, has also spread to the West Bank and Lebanon. Civilians as well as UN peacekeepers have been targeted by Israel's forces.
"I used the word 'catastrophe' for the first time back in October 2023," Albanese told RFI, "when Israel had killed 8,000, 6,000 people in the first weeks of the conflict and destroyed entire neighbourhoods, bakeries, churches, and targeted UN buildings and universities.
"This is not the way wars are conducted."
Albanese was speaking as she prepared to launch her latest report on the situation in Gaza and the other Palestinian territories, which she presented to the UN General Assembly earlier this week.
In it, she takes a long view of the current conflict, arguing that Israel's military actions form part of a systematic attempt to displace Palestinians that goes back decades – and which she calls a genocide.
"Israel occupies that land, according to the International Court of Justice, unlawfully," Albanese said.
"So Israel unlawfully occupies a territory, oppressing its people, who of course retaliate. Then they wage a war against them. It doesn't work that way."
Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Gaza
'Emptying the land'Albanese acknowledges the deadly violence inflicted on Israelis by the attacks of 7 October last year, and she has advocated for the investigation and prosecution of crimes committed against civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups.
But she warns that the trauma of 7 October has deepened Israeli animosity towards Palestinians and spurred calls for vengeance, providing the government with an opportunity to escalate its actions in the occupied territories with the goal of making them unliveable.
"As we speak, Israel is running extermination raids neighbourhood per neighbourhood in the areas that were already forcibly evacuated, ethnically cleansed of nearly 1 million people in northern Gaza," Albanese told RFI.
"Only 400,000 people remained, who have been starved, abused and bombed. What the people in Gaza have gone through is really unspeakable, and now it is emptying the land completely."
Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Israel
Israel and UN at oddsThe war has brought Israel's already tense relations with the United Nations to a low point, with the Israeli parliament this week approving a controversial bill to ban the UN's agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA – considered a lifeline for Gaza – from operating on Israeli territory.
Israel claims many of the agency's staff belong to Hamas or other terrorist groups, and accused some of them of involvement in the 7 October attacks.
The UN says it investigated the allegations and identified problems with neutrality, but no proof of terror links. It warns that restricting UNRWA will have a devastating effect on aid supply chains into Gaza.
More broadly, UN leaders have called for a ceasefire and denounced starvation, mass displacements, atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Albanese has proved an especially controversial figure, calling for the UN to consider suspending Israel as a member state over its actions.
Her stance has drawn accusations of bias and antisemitism from Israel's allies, notably the United States, which cancelled a briefing she was due to give the US Congress this week.
Washington and others argue that Israel has the right to defend itself – though Albanese questions whether its military operations are truly making it safer.
"Is it protection?" she asked. "How is what Israel is doing going to make its citizens protected? This is the question. And the blindness at the political level is mind-blowing."
The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, long-standing supporters of rival factions in Libya, offers a potential pathway to easing tensions in the North African country.
Libya resumed oil exports this month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country’s central bank, which oversees oil exports.
"This was a serious crisis," said Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute. "And while it's partly fixed, there are still issues that need attention."
The row between Libya's two rival administrations which led to the temporary halt, was only resolved by intense negotiations, but Harchaoui claims the conflict's repercussions continue.
Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa
"A lot of players, including armed groups in Tripoli, are trying to take advantage of whatever has happened over the last several weeks. So I'm not describing a scenario of war, but I'm describing a more volatile environment," he said.
Turkish-Egyptian relationsHowever, a recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could offer hope of easing Libyan tensions.
"We agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability," pledged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a press conference last month in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Libya once was a point of Turkish-Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing the eastern Libyan administration in Benghazi of Khalifa Haftar and Ankara supporting the western Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Now, Egyptian-Turkish collaboration is key to resolving the latest Libyan crisis.
"Both countries can push the Tripoli-based government at least to accept something or come to the least terms that they can agree," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-Turkish government think tank. "So it's a win-win situation for both Egypt and Turkey."
Economic crisesWith both the Turkish and Egyptian economies in crisis, the economic benefits of cooperating in Libya are seen as a powerful force behind the country's rapprochement and Libyan collaboration.
Fighting between rival militias in Libya kills dozens
"These two countries are very important to one another," said Aya Burweila, a Libyan security analyst
"They've figured out a way to divide spheres and work together. Even in the east now, Turkish companies have cut lucrative deals, infrastructure deals, just as Egypt has.
"So economy and money drive a lot of these political friendships and reapportionment."
Ankara is looking to Cairo to use its influence over Hafta to support an agreement it made with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity to explore widely believed energy reserves in Libyan waters.
Libya's stability at greater risk with turmoil in Niger and Sudan, UN warns
At the same time, Cairo is pressing to remove Ankara-supported Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya's Government of National Unity. Despite differences, Harchaoui says Cairo and Ankara are committed to cooperation.
"What has already been decided is that they are going to speak and they are going to speak on a daily basis," said Harchaoui.
"And then at every crucial moment, they are going to make sure and Turkey, specifically, is going to make sure that Egypt is on board.
"But we need more tangible results from the dialogue that has already been in place," he added.
Earlier this month, U.S. credit rating agency Fitch upheld its AA- rating for French debt, but shifted the outlook from "stable" to "negative." On 25 October, Moody’s is set to deliver its assessment. If France’s budget plans falter, the country risks a credit rating downgrade, which would drive up borrowing costs and further inflate the national debt, which currently stands at a staggering €3.2 trillion.
On October 11, Fitch's decision to downgrade France's economic outlook to "negative" serves as a warning to Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who is struggling to push his 2025 budget through parliament. The credit agency's assessment signals a potential downgrade if the government fails to take swift action to improve public finances.
France's fiscal situation appears increasingly precarious. The deficit, now at €167 billion (5.5 percent of GDP), could surpass 6 percent by year’s end. With national debt projected to hit €3.5 trillion, or 114.7 percent of GDP, France is far beyond EU limits.
France braces for economic judgment amid political turmoil and record debt
EU rules require member states to keep budget deficits below 3 percent of GDP and debt under 60 percent of GDP.
Fitch predicts that the deficit will hover around 5.4% in both 2025 and 2026 due to ongoing political uncertainty and the challenges in implementing fiscal reforms. The agency believes the budget could pass before the year's end, but the government may need to make concessions to win support from opposition parties.
All eyes are now on Moody's which will reveal its judgement on France's economy and credit-worthiness on 25 October.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Antoine Armand emphasised the government's commitment to improving the economy following Fitch's assessment, but will that be enough?
RFI spoke to Erik Norland, Chief Economist with the Chicago-based CMEGroup about the possible scenarios France's economic planners are facing.
More than 400,000 people have fled to Syria to escape Israel's military operations in Lebanon, according to the United Nations. With the numbers expected to grow as Israel steps up its offensive, neighbouring Turkey, already home to the world's largest number of refugees, fears a new wave of people seeking sanctuary.
Over 405,000 people – both Lebanese and Syrian – have crossed into Syria from Lebanon since the start of Israel's offensive, according to figures from UN refugee agency UNHCR.
Approximately 60 percent are under 18, UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Thursday, and most are struggling to meet basic needs.
The returnees are mainly people who had sought sanctuary in Lebanon from the civil war in Syria, now in its 13th year. "In Lebanon, there have been nearly one million Syrian refugees just since 2011," says Metin Corabatir of the Research Centre on Asylum and Migration, an Ankara-based NGO.
He warns this could be just the beginning of the exodus if the fighting in Lebanon continues, threatening to overwhelm Syria.
"We are not talking only about Syrian refugees going back to Syria, but the Lebanese population is moving, crossing the border to Syria. And Syria would either try to close the borders or force them to go north to the Turkish borders," Corabatir told RFI.
"This really would lead to a catastrophic situation for people, for countries and may pull Turkey into more tensions with Israel."
Anti-refugee backlashPeople fleeing Lebanon have been arriving at refugee camps in north-east Syria, close to the Turkish border. But Turkey, already hosting an estimated five million refugees, including over three million Syrians, is facing growing public backlash over their presence.
"Turkey basically cannot handle more refugees," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, an international think tank.
Earlier this year, tensions spilled over into violence against refugees in the provincial city of Kayseri. The issue has become a significant political liability for the government, with opinion polls routinely finding large majorities wanting refugees to leave.
Even if the country has the practical capacity to take more people in, "I don't see Turkey accepting a massive new wave of refugees", predicts Unluhisarcikli.
Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mount
Border barricadesIn the last couple of years, Ankara has constructed a wall along its border with Syria in a bid to prevent more refugees from entering Turkey.
Murat Aslan, of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, believes such efforts will only continue as the war in the Middle East threatens to trigger a new exodus.
"Turkey does not want any further waves coming from another region because Turkey is just experiencing and mending an economic crisis," he says. "Inflation is currently under control, and we expect a decrease in it.
"What does another wave of refugees mean? A lot of spending, a lot of inflation, and other than this, societal insecurity. That's why Turkey will not tolerate another wave."
But such a stance will likely be tested if Israel continues its offensive, creating more refugees and with them, the risk of Turkey facing a humanitarian crisis on its border.
Turkey continues to host more refugees than anyone else, but for how long?
Turkey's deployment of an energy research ship accompanied by a naval escort to Somalia is the latest step in deepening bilateral ties. However, rising Ethiopian-Somali tensions threaten Turkey's substantial investments in Somalia, as Ankara's mediation efforts stall.
With a great deal of fanfare, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the leaving ceremony of Turkey's energy research vessel Oruc Reis, which set sail this month to Somalia accompanied by two Turkish naval vessels.
Somali energy deal
The deployment of the Oruc Reis is part of an energy deal struck with Somalia and the latest step in Ankara's long-term investment in the Horn of Africa nation.
"Turkey has its largest embassy in the world in Mogadishu. It has a military base there. The port of Mogadishu is controlled by a Turkish company, "explained Norman Rickelfs, a geopolitical consultant.
"[Turkey] signed a defense deal (with Somalia) in February, a two-part defense deal, and then an energy exploration deal in March. So, Turkey needs Somalia and Ethiopia to play well together."
The threat of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa has been looming since January when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia.
The agreement gives Ethiopia secure sea access in exchange for recognizing the breakaway state, a deal condemned by Somalia for infringing on its territorial integrity.
Turkey enters fray mediating Ethiopia and Somalia's high-stakes dispute
Somalia, Ethiopia and Turkey
Ankara which has good relations with Ethiopia, as well as Somalia has been mediating. But September's round of talks, during which Ankara had indicated an agreement could be reached, has been indefinitely postponed.
The postponement follows Egypt signing a defense pact with Somalia in August. Last month, Egypt sent its first shipment of arms to Somalia in four decades.
Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an African studies professor at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, warns that Egypt’s military involvement complicates Ethiopian Somali reconciliation efforts.
"There are also some hurdles on the way with some recent tensions, especially with the involvement of Egypt and its increasing relations with Somalia," claims Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu.
Tepeciklioglu warns that the longer the Ethiopian-Somalia dispute continues, the greater the risk of contagion in an unstable region.
"The shifting alliances in the region are also a source of problem, because most of the regional countries have strained relations with each other. And then they often have conflicting interests. So this might complicate the situation," explained Tepeciklioglu.
Egypt's support of Somalia is the latest chapter in Egyptian-Ethiopian tensions. Those tensions center on Ethiopia's damming of the Nile River, which Egypt depends on.
Cairo's position
Cairo has strongly criticized the project, warning it poses an existential threat. "Egypt's military deployment to Somalia is a natural progression for an actor seeking to strengthen their hand in a regional competition," said Kaan Devecioglu of the Ankara-based think tank Orsam.
However, Devecioglu says the priority must be to prevent current rivalries from overspilling into confrontation. "Egypt already has this strained relationship with Ethiopia due to tensions over the Nile River, which makes its presence in Somalia geopolitically sensitive. The issue is not that states are rivals but ensuring they are not enemies,' explained Devecioglu.
Egyptian President Al Fateh Sisi discussed Ethiopian Somali tensions during last month's Ankara visit. The visit is part of rapprochement efforts between the countries. That rapprochement Ankara is likely to use to contain current tensions in the Horn of Africa.
However, some experts warn Ankara's mediation efforts could be running out of time.
"We see tensions escalating in the region, and we see both sides sort of trying to extract leverage and put pressure on each other," said Omar Mahmood, a Senior Analyst of the International Crisis Group.
Mahmood says that given the Horn Of Africa is already plagued with conflict Ankara’s mediation efforts needs international support,
"There needs to be a way to de-escalate, I think the mediation is very important. But I think there probably needs to be additional, you know, parties involved or additional pressure put on both sides in order to get to a breakthrough,” added Mahmood.
Currently, there is no new date for a new round of Turkish-brokered Ethiopian Somali talks, with Ankara saying it is negotiating with each country separately. But time is not on Ankara's side as tensions continue to grow in the region, which is located on one of the world's most important trade routes.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the United Nations General Assembly to criticise Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But as Erdogan tries to lead opposition to Israel, Turkey is finding itself increasingly sidelined in the region.
At the UN, Erdogan again compared Israel to Hitler, calling for an "international alliance of humanity" to stop Israel as it did Hitler 70 years ago. However, such fiery rhetoric is finding a shrinking audience.
"It's more conveying a message to their own base", said Sezin Oney of the Turkish news portal Politikyol. "There isn't an audience that really sees Turkey or Erdogan as the vanguard of Palestine rights anymore. On the contrary, that ship sailed long ago."
Erdogan attempted to boost his image as a powerful regional player by meeting with the Lebanese and Iraqi Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Ankara is increasingly finding itself sidelined as a regional diplomatic player.
"Ankara's pro-Hamas approach has only marginalised Turkey in the international arena," said international relations expert Selin Nasi of the London School of Economics. "So we see Egypt and Qatar receiving credits for their roles as mediators. And Turkey is locked out of international diplomatic efforts."
Since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel and Israel's subsequent Gaza campaign, Ankara has tried to position itself among international mediating efforts to end the fighting, given its close contacts with Hamas.
Turkish youth finds common cause in protests against trade with Israel
Mediation efforts"Turkey was asked by the United States to speak with Hamas people", said international relations expert Soli Ozel at Vienna's Institute for Human Studies.
However, Ozel says the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran denied Erdogan his diplomatic trump card.
"One big blow to Turkey has been the murder of Haniyeh, with which Turkey did have very close relations. For all I know, he may even have had a Turkish passport", said Ozel.
"And I really don't think Turkey has any relations or contacts with Yahya Sinwar, who is officially and effectively the leader of Hamas".
With Israel already alienated by Erdogan's fiery rhetoric along with Turkey imposing an Israeli trade embargo, Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's National Security Studies says Turkey has nothing to offer.
Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race
"There are two main mediators in this conflict: Egypt and Qatar. They're the two actors that have leverage over Hamas. Turkey, despite its very open support of Hamas, has very little leverage on Hamas's decisions," said Lindenstrauss.
"So Turkey is not effective – it doesn't have the money to push Hamas in a certain direction, it doesn't have the political leverage over Hamas to push it in the right direction. In practice ...Turkey is not very efficient.
"So I don't think it's a mistake that Turkey is not part of this [mediation] process."
Ankara has been quick to point out that existing mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel have achieved little, with the conflict now spreading to Lebanon.
However, some experts claim Ankara's diplomatic sidelining has a broader message of Arab countries pushing back against Turkey's involvement in the region.
"None of the Arab countries would like to get Turkey involved in this process," said international relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University.
"Turkey could be considered by their views as the enemy of Israel, but it is artificial. The Middle East Arab-Israeli conflict since 1948 has been an Arab-Israeli conflict, not a Turkish-Israeli conflict."
Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals
Regional ambitionsFor more than a decade, Erdogan has sought to project Turkey's influence across the Middle East, often referring to the years of Ottoman rule as the halcyon days of peace and tranquillity.
But the latest Middle East war has ended such dreams, analyst Ozel said.
"The Turkish government thought that they could dominate the Middle East. They played the game of hegemony seeking, and they lost it," Ozel explained.
"When they lost it, Turkey found itself way behind [the position] it had prior to 2011 when their grandiose scheme of creating a region which would be dominated by Turkey began."
As the Israel-Hamas war threatens to escalate across the region, Erdogan's rhetoric against Israel will likely continue. But analysts warn that outside of the leader's conservative base at home, few others in the region will be receptive.
In Turkey, a student-led campaign highlighting trade with Israel is putting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an increasingly tight spot. While the president has officially declared an embargo over Israel's war in Gaza, youth activists are exposing ongoing dealings that risk embarrassing the government and crossing traditional political divides.
In Istanbul's conservative Uskudar district overlooking the Bosphorus waterway, activists from the group 1,000 Youth for Palestine recently gathered to protest the killing by Israeli security forces of the Turkish-American activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi.
But along with chants condemning Israel, the demonstrators also attacked Erdogan and his government for Turkey's continuing trade with Israel.
"I am here to force the Turkish government to stop the oil trade with Israel and to stop genocide," declared Gulsum, a university academic who only wanted to be identified by her first name for security reasons.
"This is not just a public demand. It's also a legal obligation for Turkey to stop genocide."
Since the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, the student-based group has directed its protests at the export of Azerbaijani oil to Israel by way of a Turkish port.
It also targets Turkish companies – many of which have close ties to Erdogan – that it accuses of circumventing the trade embargo by using third parties.
Turkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil
Unifying causeThe group uses social networks to broadcast its message, getting around government-controlled media.
The activists say they have received broad support that crosses Turkey's traditional divides of religious and secular.
"When it comes to Palestine, it is a story that we all unite about," said Gizem, a university student and 1,000 Youth for Palestine member.
"There are those who define themselves as socialists and those who define themselves as Islamists. There are also apolitical youth who say 'I don't like politics', but still join us."
While Erdogan presents himself as a stalwart defender of the Palestinian cause, police are cracking down on the protests.
One of the group's Palestinian members was arrested after activists disrupted a panel discussion on Israel hosted by the state broadcaster. She now faces deportation in a case that has provoked further protests.
Images of police arresting headscarf-wearing members of the group further embarrassed Erdogan and his religious base.
Protests escalate in Turkey over Azerbaijani oil shipments to Israel amid embargo
'Divide and rule'Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, says the group's diversity poses a problem for Erdogan, given he has often sought to exploit the deep divisions between religious and secular voters when facing attack.
She argues that 1,000 Youth for Palestine's ability to bridge those gaps is indicative of a wider change in Turkish society.
"It's actually portraying the current youth of Turkey – you don't have monolithic circles in the grassroots," explains Oney.
"You have a mixture: hybrid groups of conservatives, conservative-looking, but very progressive," she says. "Such hybrid groups are coming together because of a cause, but ideologically or background-wise or social class-wise, they may be very diverse.
"And that's something threatening for the government. Because the government is embarking on divide and rule."
Persistent political headacheErdogan lost heavily in local elections earlier this year, a defeat widely blamed both on economic problems and anger over Turkey's ties to Israel.
The 1,000 Youth for Palestine activists say they hope to continue to build on those results.
"The reason for our success is that we put our finger on the right spot. We expose the hypocrisy of both the capitalists, the corporations and the government," claims Murat, a university student who belongs to the group.
"People also saw this hypocrisy and thought that someone should speak out, and they supported us a lot because of that," he added. "We will unite as the people of Turkey and continue to stand in the right place in history to stop the massacre in Palestine."
The diversity of 1,000 Youth for Palestine is seen as its main strength, which is why it will likely continue to pose a political headache for Erdogan. Yet it may also offer hope that the deep divides in Turkish society can be bridged.
Turkey is undergoing an unprecedented naval expansion, positioning itself as one of Europe’s largest naval powers. While some neighbours are alarmed, Ankara insists the build-up is defensive and meant to meet growing regional commitments.
“We must have a strong and effective navy to live in peace on our lands,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after commissioning the latest of six planned submarines.
Along with a new helicopter carrier, frigates and over a dozen warships under construction, this is part of Erdogan’s push to bolster the Turkish navy.
“It fits Erdogan’s political agenda of exerting influence overseas, from Qatar to Somalia to Libya,” said Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.
“For the navy, it means a greater role in the defence of the country – no longer just territorial, but forward defence from overseas.”
New courseThe change has transformed the navy’s mission.
“Turkish sailors used to sail off to sea, but they would come back on the same day to their home bases and spend the night in their homes. That's no longer the case,” Guvenc says.
“The Turkish navy is evolving into a major regional power.”
Turkey’s military presence abroad includes bases in Qatar, Libya and Somalia, with naval agreements in place. Ankara claims its expansion addresses growing threats around the region.
“When you look at the conflicts in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Red Sea, they are all around Turkey,” said Mesut Casin, a Turkish presidential adviser and professor at Yeditepe University.
He also pointed to Turkey’s NATO role: “The naval modernisation benefits NATO and the security of Western allies, especially in terms of oil and navigation security.”
Ankara has been quick to flex its new naval muscles. Four years ago, Turkish warships allegedly targeted a French NATO vessel enforcing an arms embargo on Libya.
Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals
Regional concernsGreece, with longstanding territorial disputes with Turkey in the Aegean and Mediterranean, has voiced particular concern. Israel, too, has raised alarms over Turkey’s naval growth, including military drones deployed in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus.
“Some of Turkey’s naval moves, like the UAV base in Northern Cyprus, could be aimed at Israel,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
"This doesn't mean again there will be a direct confrontation, but it does mean that it is something that the Israeli army has to calculate for."
Greece is also modernising its navy in response to what it sees as the Turkish threat. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently reaffirmed the need for a “deterrent power” against Turkey.
Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks
Meanwhile, Israel's growing naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the deployment of advanced naval assets and joint military exercises with regional partners, is adding to Turkish concerns.
"The Turkish military has begun to feel concerned about the deployment of its [Israel's] nuclear missile capable submarines in the Mediterranean," said naval expert Guvenc.
“As long as they were in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean, it wasn’t a problem. But once they shifted to the Mediterranean, it became a potential threat.”
Guvenc is warning that escalating regional suspicions risks spiraling out of control.
“It’s a vicious circle. Turkey builds a new navy to address threats, and now its neighbours feel threatened by Turkey’s naval growth. This is how arms races start, and they don’t tend to end well.”
Turkish shipyards are working at full capacity to meet the country’s growing naval demands. Analysts say this will likely only deepen fears and tensions with its neighbours.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Ankara this week, signalling the end to years of animosity with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders committed themselves to a new era of cooperation – but some observers question how long it will last.
The Egyptian president received a full diplomatic reception, with military bands and horses parading the Egyptian flag through the streets of the Turkish capital on Wednesday.
Erdogan did not hold back in welcoming a man he once dubbed a "brutal dictator", and signalled a new era of partnership between the two countries.
"With our joint declaration, we confirmed our will to advance our cooperation in all fields, including industry, trade, defence, health, environment and energy," the Turkish president declared.
String of bilateral agreementsThe two leaders signed no fewer than 17 agreements to deepen bilateral trade, diplomatic and military cooperation.
The goal is to expand their annual commercial exchanges to over €13 billion in five years, from a little over €9 billion now.
They also discussed their concerns linked to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the shared desire to see a ceasefire there – part of a wider trend of converging regional interests.
Sisi's visit follows Erdogan's trip to Cairo in February, which resulted from years of efforts to mend damaged relations.
Ankara and Cairo cut ties in 2013 after Sisi, then defence minister, ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi – Turkey's ally and part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement.
- Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendship
Question of SomalilandDespite the decade of estrangement, trade between the two countries never ceased: Turkey is Egypt's fifth-largest trading partner, while Egypt is Turkey's largest in Africa.
With the Egyptian and Turkish economies in difficulty, the need to increase bilateral trade is seen as a powerful impetus towards rapprochement and a driving force for cooperation.
It could also ease tension in oil-rich Libya, which has been in a state of civil war for over a decade and where Cairo and Ankara back rival governments.
Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila says that Libya has become an important arena for both countries.
"Because the lines in the sand are so set – and each country has its sphere of influence – this has helped both countries realise that it's much more lucrative if they cooperate rather than fight each other," she told RFI.
Sisi and Erdogan also discussed tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the breakaway state of Somaliland, following reports that Egypt has started deploying weapons to Mogadishu.
The deployment is part of Egypt's bitter dispute with Ethiopia over its Grand Renaissance Dam, which Cairo claims seriously threatens vital water supplies from the Nile River.
- Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa
Rivalry paused, not ended?However, analysts suggest Egypt could also be seeking to challenge Turkey's influence in Somalia – in which it has heavily invested – as well as complicating Ankara's efforts to mediate between the Somali and Ethiopian governments.
Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, a professor of African studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, acknowledges the danger – but predicts Erdogan and Sisi will initially seek common ground.
"Both Egypt and Turkey can cooperate in Somalia, especially in terms of security," she observes.
"They can implement joint anti-terrorism initiatives. They can combine their efforts in development projects. They can involve themselves in political stabilisation initiatives, and so on.
"But they can also compete with each other for a more significant role and influence in Somalia."
For now, though, most experts seem to agree that with the spectre of a wider regional conflict and increasing economic pressures, Erdogan and Sisi are fully aware that cooperation, rather than rivalry, is in both their interests.
Turkey is stepping up its efforts to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia as tensions rise between the two Horn of Africa nations. This diplomatic initiative is part of Ankara's broader strategy to solidify its growing influence in this strategically vital region.
Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan described August's second round of indirect talks in Ankara between his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts as constructive and positive.
"We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps that are important convergences on some major principles and specific modalities", Fidan said.
"This constitutes notable progress."
While there was no breakthrough, all sides agreed to meet again in September.
Controversial deal Ethiopian-Somali tensions have escalated since January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia.
Under the agreement, Ethiopia would secure sea access in exchange for recognising Somaliland, a deal condemned by Somalia as an infringement on its territorial integrity.
"Ethiopia needs access to a coastline", said Dubai-based geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs.
"It’s the second-largest country in Africa. It’s a booming economy. And, somehow, that deal needs to be made, but it’s not going to be easy because of the previous deal earlier this year with Somaliland."
Ricklefs predicts that finding a solution will require considerable diplomatic finesse.
"It’s not going to be easy to convince the Somalis to grant that [Ethiopian demands], feeling that they’re under pressure right now because of the deal that was previously done with Somaliland," he said.
"But I think Turkey is probably best placed, as they have a very close relationship with both Ethiopia and Somalia."
Somalia recently threatened to block access to Ethiopian Airlines in the latest bout of diplomatic tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt could reportedly deploy soldiers to Somalia, a move that threatens to further escalate and broaden tensions, given existing Ethiopian-Egyptian conflicts.
Ethiopia and Somalia move closer to resolving Somaliland dispute
Deepening influenceThe situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s summit in Turkey, where Egyptian President Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet.
Africa expert Elem Eyrice-Tepecikoglu from the African studies department of Ankara’s Social Sciences University said Turkey’s historical and deepening economic and military ties with both Somalia and Ethiopia give it an advantageous position in its mediating efforts.
"Somalia has a very important place in Turkey’s Africa policy. Turkey has established its largest embassy in Somalia’s capital, and it also established its largest military training facility, again in Somalia," said Tepecikoglu.
"But Turkey also has old and established relations with Ethiopia as well. There are several investments of Turkish companies in the country, and Turkey also signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia. Reportedly, Turkish drones were used against the Tigray rebel forces."
Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks
Economic, military stakesEarlier this year, the Somali parliament ratified a naval agreement with Turkey to protect its territorial waters and a deal to search for hydrocarbons. Turkey is second only to China in investment in Ethiopia, including selling its military-proven drones.
Analysts suggest that there is more than diplomatic prestige at stake for Ankara in resolving Ethiopian-Somali tensions, given the region’s potential and geostrategic importance as a critical world trading route.
"There’s a reason why the Horn of Africa has American military bases and Chinese military bases. The Japanese even have a base in that area. All of them think the Horn of Africa is a pretty significant region for global shipping," Ricklefs said.
"It’s a region that has not been developed. It has hydrocarbon resources and other resources like agricultural resources that have not been developed and would need networks and infrastructure that a country like Turkey could provide if there was security and stability."
Ethiopian and Somali talks are set to resume in September. Success would underline Turkey’s growing influence in a region of increasing international competition, while failure could threaten two decades of Turkish investment in the region.
Fears are rising that Azerbaijan and Armenia are entering an arms race, which could undermine US-backed peace talks and trigger a new conflict.
Azerbaijan showcased its military might in a grand parade in Baku last year to celebrate its victory in recapturing the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave from Armenian-backed forces.
Azerbaijan, buoyed by its oil wealth, is continuing its aggressive rearmament programme, heavily relying on Turkey for military support.
“The Turkish defence industry and Turkish military equipment will be providing further arms to protect Azerbaijan," predicts Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.”
However, Bagci noted that Azerbaijan is also turning to another ally for advanced weaponry.
“Israel is much better in this respect. Azerbaijan buys the highest technology from Israel, and Israel is providing it.”
Turkish and Israeli arms played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's recent military successes, overwhelming Armenian-backed forces that relied on outdated Russian equipment.
Armenia's responseIn response to its loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is also ramping up its military capabilities, with France leading the supply of new, sophisticated weaponry.
Paris argues that this support helps Armenia shift its focus away from Russian reliance and towards Western alliances.
Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence.
“Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan," says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia.
"The goal is to create deterrents to make any aggression against Armenia more costly. In the medium term, we aim for equality, and in the long term, superiority.”
Stalled peace talksThe rearmament comes amid stalled peace talks, with Baku concerned that Yerevan’s military buildup might indicate ambitions to retake Nagorno Karabakh.
“The truth is our territory was under occupation, so we worry that in five, 10 years, Armenia will rearm its military, strengthen military capacities, and will come back,” warned Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Centre of Analysis of International Relations.
Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence.
“Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The goal is to create deterrents in the short run to make any aggression against Armenia far more costly than it has been in the past,” says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia.
“Two is to create equality in the middle term and in the long term superiority. You can’t have any other goal when your country is constantly under threat, or attack is the only way to respond to it."
Hacopian also notes: “The moment Armenia can defend itself, then the game is up because Ilham Aliyev is not going to risk a war that he is not guaranteed to win; Armenia rearming means he is not guaranteed to win a war which he means he won’t launch one.”
However, Hacopian acknowledges that the coming year will be dangerous for the region as Yerevan seeks to close the military gap with Azerbaijan.
"Next year is the year of living dangerously because next year is the last year that they can do a major aggression against Armenia without having to face the consequences because the gap is closing. Once it closes, the game will be up,” he says.
Ongoing tensionsEarlier this month, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces exchanged fire in a border skirmish, underscoring the ongoing tensions between the two nations.
Both Baku and Yerevan insist their military enhancements are for defensive purposes.
However, Bagci warns that the arms race is turning the region into a potential flashpoint.
“Armenia and Azerbaijan are like two children; they play with fire, and the house is burning, and everybody is asking the big powers why the house is burning and who has done it. They have done it together,” he says.
Despite their rearmament, both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim to remain committed to the US-backed peace process.
Analysts, however, warn that the escalating arms race could deepen mutual suspicions and further complicate efforts to achieve lasting peace.
In a bid to break out of increasing international isolation, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week hosted Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara – positioning Turkey as a key player in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Abbas received a standing ovation in the Turkish Parliament on Thursday, where he addressed an extraordinary session. Deputies wore scarves adorned with Turkish and Palestinian flags as a show of solidarity.
With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watching from the balcony, Abbas praised Turkey’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause.
"We highly appreciate Turkey's pioneering role under the leadership of President Erdogan for its courageous and unwavering positions in defense of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to freedom and independence," declared Abbas.
Increasing isolationErdogan is attempting to position himself at the forefront of international opposition to Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, even as Turkey finds itself increasingly sidelined from global efforts to resolve the conflict.
China’s recent hosting of Palestinian faction leaders highlights Erdogan’s diminishing influence.
“Erdogan was hoping to reconcile Palestinian factions, but China stole the spotlight and acted preemptively. China had more political clout over the parties,” Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics contemporary Turkish studies department, told RFI.
Abbas’s visit to Russia on Tuesday further underscores the growing importance of other nations in efforts to address the Gaza conflict.
Domestic messageErdogan’s invitation to Abbas also serves as a way to reinforce his pro-Palestinian credentials with his domestic conservative base.
“He’s trying to keep his base intact domestically,” Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s Politikyol news portal, told RFI.
“Once upon a time, Erdogan resonated with the Arab public in general.
"The Arab Street, as it was called back then, and the Muslim population in general saw him as connected with international grassroots movements. But he doesn’t have that appeal anymore; he’s lost that appeal.”
Turkey a bridge?Erdogan has long claimed to be a bridge between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
“This is an issue that Erdogan personally invested a lot of time and energy in,” said Selin Nasi.
However, Erdogan’s influence with Hamas has waned, particularly after the assassination of its leader Ismail Haniyeh last month, and his replacement by Yahya Sinwar, who is relatively unknown in Turkey.
"They cannot host [Sinwar], they cannot contact him, nor do they have the kind of relations that they had with Haniyeh. So they have to settle with Mahmoud Abbas at this point," Oney said.
Abbas, however, appears to show little interest in Turkey's playing a larger role in resolving the conflict, and Erdogan's strong support of Hamas and his fiery rhetoric against Israel is increasingly isolating him from countries seeking to end the fighting.
China’s car giant BYD’s announcement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey represents a significant turnaround in bilateral relations. However, concerns persist regarding human rights issues and Turkey’s stance on the Chinese Muslim Uyghur community.
In a ceremony attended by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, China's BYD car company signed an agreement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey.
The factory will produce 150,000 vehicles annually, mainly for the European Union market.
Analysts say the July deal marks a turning point in Turkish-Chinese relations.
"The significance of this deal is Turkey would be considered as a transition country between China and the EU," Sibel Karabel, director of the Asia Pacific department of Istanbul's Gedik University told RFI.
"This deal has the potential to reduce the trade imbalance, the trade deficit, which is a detriment to Turkey," he adds, "Turkey also wants to reap the benefits of China's cutting-edge technologies by collaborating with China."
Sidestepping tariffsChina's pivot towards Turkey, a NATO member, is also about Beijing's increasing competition for global influence, especially with the United States.
Karabel says the planned BYD factory offers a way for China to avoid the EU's new tariffs on vehicles.
Turkey is already a part of China's global investment strategy through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing has shown interest in Turkey becoming a trade route from China to Europe through Ankara's Middle Corridor Intiative.
But until now, such collaborations have until been just empty words, claims Ceren Ergenc a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies.
Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve trade
"When you look at the press statements after meetings, you don't see Chinese investments in Turkey, and the reason for that is because China perceives Turkey as a high political risk country in the region," Ergenc explains.
One of the main factors widely cited for Beijing's reluctance to invest in Turkey is Ankara's strong support of China's Muslim Uyghur minority.
Ankara has been critical of Beijing's crackdown on Uyghurs, offering refuge to many Uyghur dissidents. Their Turkish supporters fear Beijing's billion-dollar investment in Turkey could be part of an extradition deal struck during Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent visit to China.
"There are rumors, of course, that the Chinese side is pressing for the ratification of this extradition agreement, that they would want Uyghurs in Turkey, some of them at least, to be returned to China to be tried in China," warns Cagdas Ungor of Istanbul's Marmara University, referring to people China considers to be dissidents or "terrorists".
Common ground over GazaElsewhere, Ankara and Beijing are finding increasing diplomatic common ground, including criticism of Israel's war on Hamas.
"If you take, for instance, the Gaza issue right now, Turkey and China, and even without trying," observes Ungor, "they see eye to eye on this issue. Their foreign policies align, overlap, and their policy becomes very much different from most of the other Western countries."
Carmakers unhappy after EU hits China with tariffs on electric vehicles
For example, Ankara welcomed last month's decision by Beijing to host Palestinian leaders amid an escalation of threats and bombardment by Israel.
Such a move can provide common ground, Ungor suggests, and this could be the basis for future cooperation.
"There are certain issues at a global level, at the regional level, that China seems to be a much better partner(to Turkey) than the Western countries," he concludes.
Joint military exercises between US and Armenian forces are the latest steps in Yerevan's efforts to shift away from Moscow. The potential reopening of the Armenian border with Turkey could also prove crucial – though it may ultimately depend on Armenia's rival, Azerbaijan.
July saw major military drills in Armenia between Armenian and United States forces.
"Politically, it is exceptionally relevant; they are four or five times larger than last year," explains Eric Hacopian, a political analyst in Armenia, who notes the range of US divisions mobilised for the drills. "It's not about peacekeeping."
The military exercise, dubbed "Eagle Partner", is part of Yerevan's wider efforts to escape its Russian neighbour's sphere of influence, Hacopian believes.
"These are serious exercises, and they were followed up with the news that there is going to be US permanent representation in the Ministry of Defence of Armenia as advisors to join the French who are already there," he noted.
"Essentially, there is no other play but to join the West."
France, Russia stand on opposite sides of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
Armenia is also seeking to reduce its economic dependence on Russia, pressing Turkey to open its border and providing a new gateway to Western markets for the landlocked country.
Ankara closed the frontier in 1993 after ethnic Armenian forces seized the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, with Azerbaijani forces recapturing the enclave last year, analysts say the opening of the border could now align with Turkey's goals to expand its regional influence.
"The normalisation of the relationship with Armenia would allow Turkish policy in the Cacasus to acquire a more comprehensive dimension today. That's the missing element," said Sinan Ulgen, an analyst with the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Istanbul.
"Turkey obviously has very strong links to Azerbaijan and very good relations with Georgia, but not with Armenia," he explained. "And that's a predicament, as we look at Turkey's overall policy in the Caucasus."
LeverageWashington is working hard to broker a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "A deal is close," declared US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of July's NATO summit in Washington.
Last week, Turkish and Armenian envoys held their fifth meeting aimed at normalising relations. However, with critical issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan unresolved, Baku sees Turkey's reopening of the Armenian border as important leverage.
In principle, both Azerbaijan and Turkey are in favour, claims Farid Shafiyev, an Azeri former diplomat and now chair of the Centre of Analysis of International Relations in Baku.
"However, we believe at this stage, as we have not signed a peace agreement, it might send a wrong signal to Yerevan and Armenia that we don't need to come to an agreement about the core issues – the mutual recognition of territorial integrity," he said.
Can Turkey tip the balance of power in the Caucasus conflict?
Meanwhile Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and is ruling out opening the border until Baku's demands are met.
Turkish arms were key to Azerbaijan's recent military successes against Armenian-backed forces. "Azerbaijan is where it is, in good part because of Turkey's military assistance, intelligence assistance and all that," argues Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
But Ozel says Baku is dictating Ankara's Caucasus policy. "It is befuddling to me that Turkey cannot open the borders with Armenia, which Armenia both needs and wants, because of Azerbaijan's veto," he said. "Especially if indeed Azerbaijan, for one reason or another, believes that its interests are once more in turning toward Russia."
With Azerbaijan's Socar energy company Turkey's biggest foreign investor, Baku retains powerful economic leverage over Ankara – meaning any hope of reopening the Turkish-Armenian border appears dependent on the wishes of Azerbaijan's leadership.
A new Turkish law threatening to cull millions of street dogs has sparked nationwide anger. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists the strays are a public health risk, critics say the move is an attempt to distract from bigger problems.
Under controversial legislation currently passing through parliament, local authorities would be responsible for rounding up stray dogs, which would be killed after 30 days if an owner can not be found for them.
Opponents claim as many as eight million street dogs could be at risk.
"They are planning to round them up into shelters, which we call death camps," said Zulal Kalkandelen, one of the animals rights activists taking part in a recent protest against the plan in Istanbul.
"For some time, there has been a campaign to fuel stray animal hatred," she declared.
"Our people, who have been living with street dogs for many years, in fact for centuries, are now being brought to the point where all these animals will be erased."
Street dogs have been a part of Istanbul life for centuries. The proposed legislation evokes memories of a dark chapter in the city's past when, in 1910, street dogs were rounded up and left on a nearby island to starve.
It has provoked emotive arguments in parliament, with MPs jostling one another and exchanging insults – opening another deep divide in an already fractured political landscape.
But President Erdogan insists something must be done to control stray animals that, he argues, have become a menace to society, causing traffic accidents and spreading disease.
Humane alternativesAddressing parliament, Erdogan claimed he was answering the call of the "silent majority".
"The truth is that a very large part of society wants this issue to be resolved as soon as possible and our streets to become safe for everyone, especially our children," he declared.
"It is unthinkable for us to remain indifferent to this demand, this call, even this cry. Our proposals are no different from those of other countries in Europe."
Mixed reactions as France prepares to simplify wolf culling rules
Lawyer Elcin Cemre Sencan, who has helped organise protests against the proposed legislation, argues there are more humane ways to address people's concerns.
"There is a group of people who are disturbed by these stray animals or who are afraid even to touch them," she acknowledges. "But even if there are these concerns, the solution is not to put the dogs to sleep.
"Scientific studies have shown that sterilising animals, especially dogs, reduces not only their numbers but also attacks on people."
Veterinary organisations have also pointed out that the cost of euthanising a dog is many times higher than sterilisation and vaccination.
Diversion tactic?Some critics suggest politics could be behind the move.
With Erdogan's conservative AK Party suffering heavy defeats in local elections this spring and Turkey grappling with near 100 percent inflation, opponents claim the Turkish president could be calculating that objections to his street dog legislation comes mainly from the secular opposition and hoping the issue will consolidate his religious base.
"We know our problems in this country; the world knows our problems. There is an economic crisis, and we have human rights problems everywhere. But they want to change the main topics to these animals," said Eyup Cicerali, a professor at Istanbul's Nisantasi University, at a recent protest against the legislation.
"They want to kill them all," he claimed. "We are here to protect our values, values of respect and dignity for human and animal rights. Life is an issue for all groups."
According to one recent opinion poll, less than 3 percent of the Turkish public support the culling of street dogs.
Some of Erdogan's MPs have even started speaking out against the law in the media, albeit anonymously. "This law makes us dog killers," one unnamed deputy was quoted as saying.
Despite such misgivings, the legislation is expected to pass parliament later this month.
But with the protests drawing together secular and religious animal lovers, and opposition-controlled local authorities declaring they won't impose the law, the stray dog legislation could prove a risky move for Erdogan.
Where will Gaza stray dogs find shelter?
Facing mounting domestic tensions over Syrian refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reaching out to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad for dialogue. The initiative, reportedly supported by Moscow, is complicated by Turkey's significant military presence in Syria.
Erdogan's call for talks comes after widespread riots against Syrian refugees in Turkish cities. He aims to facilitate the return of Syrians who have fled to Turkey since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.
Soli Ozel, an international relations expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says the situation is volatile.
"The country is like a tinderbox regarding refugees, especially as economic conditions deteriorate. Syrians have become easy scapegoats, and there's widespread frustration with their presence, justified or not. This has become a significant political issue," Ozel said.
He also stresses that key to any solution is a credible plan for the orderly departure of Syrian refugees to reassure the Turkish public.
Erdogan's party suffered losses in local elections in March, largely due to growing hostility towards over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey and rampant inflation approaching triple digits. These factors have intensified pressure on Erdogan to address the refugee situation.
- Turkey vows to keep borders shut despite new exodus of Syrians
Russia's positionRussia, under Putin, supports Erdogan's diplomatic outreach, seeing it as a potential end to Turkish backing of Syrian rebels and a conclusion to the civil war.
This aligns with Moscow's priorities, since resolving the Syrian conflict would allow Russia to redirect military resources to Ukraine.
However, Turkey's extensive military presence in Syria complicates potential talks. Turkish forces are engaged in operations against Kurdish groups, which Ankara claims are linked to domestic separatists. The Turkish military also protects Syrian rebel forces along the border.
Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now a foreign policy analyst with Medyascope, suggests that Ankara's willingness to negotiate could provide Syria with an opportunity to secure Turkish withdrawal.
"Assad relies heavily on external support and even internal factions" he said.
"Unable to forcibly remove Turkish troops, Assad's only option is to request their withdrawal as a precondition for talks."
Despite this, Erdogan insists on maintaining Turkey's military presence until Syria can effectively secure its borders.
Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies said: "Turkey's primary concern is preventing the border region from becoming a security threat post-withdrawal. Turkey needs assurances from Syria before considering troop removal."
- Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mount
Humanitarian crisis?The news of Erdogan's pursuit of dialogue with Damascus sparked unrest in rebel-held northeast Syria, with protesters targeting Turkish bases out of fear of potential abandonment by Ankara.
Erdogan maintains that any agreement with Damascus would safeguard returning Syrian refugees and rebels. However, Fabrice Balanche, a regional expert from Lyon University, warns of an impending humanitarian crisis.
"If the regime regains control of rebel areas, most residents will attempt to flee to Turkey. Turkey cannot accommodate four million additional refugees," Balanche cautions.
"These people are acutely aware that remaining under regime control, even with promised amnesties, puts them at risk of targeting by security forces, conscription, or worse. There's no real protection."
Despite ongoing tensions in Turkey over the Syrian refugee presence, Erdogan is seeking Putin's assistance to soften Assad's stance on negotiations.
The Turkish leader has proposed hosting a trilateral summit this summer, though there's been no positive response so far.
The current situation highlights the complex interplay of regional politics, humanitarian concerns and diplomatic manoeuvering in addressing the Syrian conflict and its far-reaching consequences.
- Syria's Assyrians flee to Turkey
Turkey's bid to join the BRICS trading group is the latest move in the Turkish President's delicate balancing act between Western and Eastern allies.
The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Almaty, Kazakhstan, provided a platform for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet in person.
Their encounter was marked by a display of cordiality, with both leaders appearing at ease and Putin emphasizing the significance of their bilateral relationship.
Active engagement
Putin, standing alongside Erdogan, stated, "We continue to actively engage on crucial matters of international politics." He further added, "Our communication is constant, and our respective ministries and departments regularly share information and align our stances on key issues." Erdogan was observed nodding in agreement with these remarks.
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According to reports, a notable topic on the leaders' agenda was Turkey's aspiration to join BRICS, an economic alliance comprising Russia, China, and several nations from Asia, Africa, and South America. This potential membership represents a significant shift in Turkey's international alignments.
Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst at GlobalSource Partners, explains, "A core principle of BRICS is reducing the dollar's role in mutual trade, which aligns with Turkey's interests." He argues that BRICS membership complements Turkey's broader foreign policy objectives, stating, "The concept of a new platform fostering trade among geographically distant countries naturally appeals to Turkey and fits its foreign policy stance."
Yesilada suggests that Turkey's BRICS bid serves an additional purpose: "It signals to Putin that Turkey intends to maintain and strengthen its growing commercial ties with Russia." This comes despite Putin's recent cautions to Turkey regarding its efforts to improve relations with its traditional Western allies.
The Russian leader strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, posits that Moscow views Turkey's potential BRICS membership as a strategic move to balance Beijing's increasing influence within the group.
Turikey and BRICS
Putin strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, suggests this support is part of Moscow's strategy to counterbalance Beijing's growing influence within BRICS.
Ergenc explains, "BRICS has become China's domain, with recent membership invitations primarily extended to countries China seeks closer ties with, effectively sidelining Russia and India as the group's other major powers."
Turkey's pursuit of BRICS membership coincides with its stalled EU accession process, hampered by Turkey's non-compliance with the EU's Copenhagen Criteria on human rights. This impasse is reportedly affecting Turkey's trade relations with the EU. Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst, notes, "Erdogan's frustration with the EU's lack of progress on Turkey's accession and customs union update contributed to the BRICS bid."
However, Yesilada argues that Turkey's interest in BRICS transcends Erdogan's presidency, reflecting a broader foreign policy strategy. He states, "This aligns with Turkey's overarching policy goal, widely supported by the country's policy establishment, of maintaining independence from any single political bloc, be it Western or Eastern."
As Erdogan prepares to attend the NATO summit in Washington, where he's expected to reaffirm Turkey's Western security commitments, analysts view the BRICS bid as a clear indication that Ankara is diversifying its international partnerships beyond its traditional Western allies.
The EU on Friday congratulated Keir Starmer on Labour's election win in Britain, with European Council President Charles Michel calling it "historic". But Labour's landslide victory doesn't mean that London will turn back the clock on Brexit.
Keir Starmer has pledged to "make Brexit work" and seek "an ambitious" security pact with the the European Union.
But contrary to the hopes of many in the UK who may have hoped that London would return to the EU mainland fold, Labour is careful not to offend its pro-Brexit constituencies.
Over the years, especially in the north of England, many voters shifted to the pro-Brexit ideas of the Conservative party, afraid that EU immigrants would take away their jobs.
RFI talks to political scientist John Barry, of Queens University in Belfast, about how he thinks Brexit affected the UK economy, and if London will ever rejoin the common market.
This interview was carried out online.
Istanbul police now have some of the world's most expensive sports cars – spoils of seized assets in a crackdown on international organised crime. It's part of Ankara's efforts to escape international scrutiny over money laundering as it seeks global investment.
In the heart of Istanbul, onlookers gather around taking selfies of the police's latest addition to its carpool: a Ferrari. City police now boast some of the world's flashiest supercars, not only Ferraris but also Bentleys and Lexuses.
They're the pickings of a nationwide crackdown on international organised crime involving narcotics smuggling and money laundering.
Turkey's unique geography straddling Europe and Asia makes it an ideal centre for international crime.
"Turkey is in between the continents. So once you want to transfer a commodity which is illegal, it may be drugs, etc, you must have a step here," says Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, a think tank in Ankara.
Gang links"Most criminal gangs in Europe or the United States or South America have links to the ones here in Turkey – and that is why police have started operations, especially focusing on the ones who have warrants or arrest warrants by Interpol.
"It's a process, and Turkey is currently in the middle of it."
Interior Ministry videos show heavily armed police breaking down doors in the middle of the night at luxury addresses usually associated with Istanbul's high society.
Vast quantities of cash and guns are invariably recovered. Among those arrested are some of the world's most wanted criminals from Europe, Asia, and the United States, most connected to the illicit drugs trade, underlining Turkey's status as a hub for the European narcotics trade.
Last week, Turkish police, with their Spanish and French counterparts, broke up a European Central American drug cartel, resulting in dozens of arrests.
"According to Interpol and the Turkish police's narcotics department, Turkey has become a transshipment hub for Europe and the Middle East," says Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for Global Source Partners, another think tank.
"There are huge amounts of money floating around here."
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Crime hubYesilada says Turkey became a hub for international crime not only because of its geography but also because of the government's recent efforts to attract foreign currency to prop up the Turkish lira with a wealth amnesty.
"Look at our wealth amnesty, bring cash, bring diamonds, we don't really care. Just check it at the border or deposit it in a bank, and we'll never ask questions. This never-ask-questions part is, of course, completely in violation of the spirit of the global anti-money laundering legislation," Yesilada says.
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, at a recent press conference on the crackdown, announced that over 1,000 arrests – including 50 people wanted by Interpol – had been made this year, along with over 3 billion dollars in seized assets.
Yerlikaya says he's committed to ending Turkey's reputation as a haven for drug kingpins.
"Thirty-eight mafia-type organised crime gangs, seven of which were international and 31 of which were local, were broken up," Yerlikaya says.
"We consider drugs a global disaster in the Turkish century. Our main goal in the fight against drugs is to ensure that Turkey becomes an inaccessible and Prohibited Zone for drugs. We consider drug crime equivalent to terrorism."
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Turkey grey-listedThe crackdown follows the international anti-money laundering organisation the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) putting Turkey on its grey list of countries failing to combat global money laundering.
"Commercial banks and global funds are reluctant to do business with a country that's still on the grey list because, you know, too many sanctions," warns Yesilada.
Turkey's crackdown on organised crime and tightening of its financial controls are part of efforts to remove itself from the grey list and escape its damaging economic impact.
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"If we remain on the FATF grey list again, from the top of my head, 20 percent of the institutions that would otherwise be interested in investing in Turkey probably won't be able to do so because of compliance fears," Yesilada says.
"It is going to be a significant concern when this extensive due diligence work is undertaken, whether to make a particular investment in Turkey."
The Turkish government sees increasing international investment as key to solving the country's economic woes, which means the raids on wanted international crime figures seem set to continue, along with confiscating their valuable assets.
For the Istanbul police, the supply of fancy cars looks set to continue.
Protests in Turkey are intensifying over Azerbaijani oil deliveries to Israel. Despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposing a trade embargo on Israel over its war against Hamas, the trade, which passes through a Turkish port, continues.
Campaigners in Turkey advocating for a boycott of Israeli trade are focusing on Azerbaijan's oil supply to Israel via the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Oil protests
Demonstrators from the group Thousand Youth for Palestine recently targeted the Istanbul headquarters of SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state energy company, splashing red paint over its walls.
Students at Istanbul's prestigious Galatasaray University also protested against a speech by a senior SOCAR executive, accusing the company of having blood on its hands.
Experts say Azerbaijan, a close ally of Israel, meets around 40% of Israeli oil needs, a trade that has not been affected by Israel's war on Hamas.
"Until now, Azerbaijan has not stopped its oil exports to Israel. On the contrary, they are going as normal, and this again a manifestation of the reliability of Azerbaijan and that it is a true partner of Israel," explained Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
"I would even say that since Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Israel just a year ago, trade relations have actually expanded," added Lindenstrauss.
Trade with Israel
Protests against Turkish-Israeli trade have hurt President Recep Tayyip Erdogan politically. Analysts say opposition to Israeli trade, along with an economic crisis, was a factor in March's local elections defeat of Erdogan's AK Party.
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"Had there not been the economic crisis, probably they (Turkish voters) wouldn't also be so concerned about the trade with Israel," Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said.
"But the economic crisis somehow removed the rosy glasses, rose-colored glasses of so many people in Turkey, including the AK party supporters," Oney added.
"So they started to see things as they are and criticize the government and even Erdogan directly."
Following his local election defeat, Erdogan imposed an Israeli trade embargo, boasting that Turkey was taking the lead in standing up to Israel.
However, with the Turkish president having close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijan's SOCAR energy company, Turkey's biggest international investor, analysts say Baku retains leverage over Ankara.
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"Over the past few years, the Azeri-Israeli relationship has been consolidated; it is a bulwark against Iran as well in some regards," Mehmet Ogutcu of the London Energy Club, a grouping of government and energy sector leaders, said.
"Therefore, the Azeris, although I'm sure they are also unhappy with what's happening in Gaza as a result of the Israeli land forces attack, and they would probably impress on Erdogan not to go that far to stop this oil flow," added Ogutcu.
Protests in Turkey against Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel are ongoing, prompting police to arrest organizers and thereby triggering further demonstrations.
A mother of one of the detainees, addressing supporters outside an Istanbul courthouse, demanded to know why her son was detained for defending Palestine. The video of the speech went viral across Turkish social media.
Analysts suggest that such expressions of anger can only serve to further undermine Erdogan's claims of leading international protests against Israeli actions in Gaza.
"The Turkish government said that they stopped trade with Israel, but somehow, it's continuing in other ways," Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal, said
"So I think the real culprit, more so than Azerbaijan companies or Azerbaijan's Aliyev, or other circles in Azerbaijan itself, [is] the Turkish government, which is going to be held responsible by those protesting and by the conservative base specifically.
With many protesters drawn from Erdogan's traditionally religious conservative base, analysts warn the political cost for the Turkish leader over the ongoing oil trade with Israel is likely to grow.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to China earlier this month is the latest diplomatic effort by Ankara to become a strategic trade hub between Europe and China. But Beijing's suspicions over Ankara's support of Chinese Uyghur dissidents is widely seen as an obstacle.
Bilateral trade and developing new trade routes were at the top of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's agenda for his recent China visit.
According to Cagdas Ungor, an expert on China and professor of political science at Istanbul's Marmara University, Turkey wants to be a part of the shift in global trading towards the Asia Pacific region.
"Turkey needs to rebuild all these connections in order to remain at the center of things, maintaining its bridge status between East and West," he explained to RFI.
Ankara is seeking backing from Beijing of its "Middle Corridor" trade route, which would link China with Europe via Turkey.
Until now, such efforts have made little progress, but Ungor says this could change due to the world economy resetting to circumvent sanction-hit Russia.
Middle Corridor has been on the table between China and Turkey for a long time, Ungor says.
Window of opportunity"The idea of it has become more popular now because of the Russian sanctions, and Europeans are now also interested in alternative channels. There's a window of opportunity," he says.
But Beijing is critical of Ankara offering refuge to China's predominantly Muslim Uyghur minority.
The Chinese have not forgotten that in 2009, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was Prime Minister, he described China's crackdown on Uyghurs as "near genocide".
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The international community, including the United States and the European Union, have also accused China of incarcerating tens of thousands of its largest Muslim minority in camps in an effort to strip them of their Muslim identity. Beijing has denied these accusations, saying the camps are designed to combat separatism and weed out Islamist extremists.
Since then, the issue seems to have become water under the bridge, judging by the warm reception Turkey's diplomat was given on his China visit at the beginning of June.
Analysts say Fidan used more conciliatory language on the issue during his trip which included a stop in Xinjiang, home to many Uyghurs.
Respect for one-China policyUngor says the the Chinese were "happy" with Fidan's visit, as it further underlined Turkey's support for China's one-China policy.
"The official Chinese media focused on the fact that Turkey respects China's territorial integrity," Ungor says.
"And Fidan's remarks on Xinjiang's economic development, social harmony, respect for cultural rights" made a good impression, adds Ungor.
Turkey's pro-government media even praised Fidan for wearing a turquoise blue tie, the color of the Uyghur community and referring to the region's Turkic Muslim roots.
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However, some members of the Uyghur diaspora were alarmed by Fidan's visit.
Uyghur leaderSeyit Tumturk, the head of East Turkistan National Assembly accused the Chinese administration of "trying to legitimise its own genocide" by with Fidan's visit to the Uyghur region.
Tumturk maintains that "Hakan Fidan saw what China wanted him to see, but no more," suggesting that if China had nothing to hide, then it should allow international independent observers to have the opportunity to go there "and visit not only places China says to see but also the back streets, to visit the households, and to determine the agony, pain, and torture there," he concludes.
WildcardAdding to Uyghur dissidents' unease over Fidan's China visit are growing rumors that Ankara is ready to acquiesce to Beijing's lobbying to ratify an extradition agreement held up in the Turkish parliament in the face of strong opposition.
"The ultranationalist opposition claims that China got a promise from Fidan that the Turkish parliament will finally ratify an extradition treaty, which will allow Uyghurs to be sent back to China," explains China specialist Ceren Ergenc, a visiting fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.
"There's no way that we can know if it's true or not, we need to wait and see. If it's correct, then it's a huge compromise from Turkey's side," adds Ergenc.
Such a compromise could help overcome Beijing's current reluctance to collaborate with Ankara. But any move by Ankara against the Uyghurs will be risky given the strong Turkish public support for the Chinese minority.
"China informally bypasses Turkey in its regional plans. Turkey is a wild card for China," claims Ergenc, adding that Turkey is also officially classified as a high-risk country for investment for Chinese companies.
"The Uyghur diaspora is very strong in Turkey in terms of the voter base of the conservative parties. So you never know how a statement like Erdogan's ten years ago could come and create a crisis between the two countries.
Turkish companies are emerging as significant suppliers of weapons to Ukraine and are supporting United States efforts to resolve Kyiv's ammunition shortages. However, this support is a challenge to Ankara's efforts to balance its relationship with Moscow and its Western allies.
Turkey has managed to tread a fine diplomatic line by maintaining ties with both Russia and Ukraine since Moscow invaded its pro-Western neighbour in February 2022.
At the same time, Ankara has improved its relationship with the United States and has even coordinated with them in arms production to help Ukraine.
The United States' latest munitions factory in Texas, which goes online this month, uses the Turkish company Repkon's state-of-the-art equipment.
The new plant is vital to meeting the Ukrainian army's current shortages and ultimately aims to meet a third of the United States's needs.
Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies says Ukrainians are running low because they've been using the Allied-supplied Howitzers that require a certain kind of ammunition.
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"This has been the essential sort of weapon of choice that has prevented up until recently, the advancement, and recapture of Ukrainian towns by Russian troops," he tells RFI.
"That Turkey is stepping into this is remarkable," Ciddi continues, "simply because Turkey has a vast ability not only to procure and manufacture, but it's a vital sort of supply line for the US, which is also actually starting to run low based on the amount of shells it has supplied the Ukrainian partner right."
Source of tensionThe United States Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, praised the collaboration as a sign of the growing importance of deepening bilateral ties.
But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have been a source of tension between Ankara and Washington.
Since the outset of Russia's invasion, Ankara has supported Kyiv but remained neutral, refusing to enforce Western sanctions against Moscow.
Meanwhile, another Turkish company, Baykar, is building a military drone factory in Ukraine.
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"It's a little bit risky to establish a factory in Ukraine under the war conditions," warns defense analyst Tayfun Ozberk.
"It's very critical for Turkey, of course, establishing a factory in Ukraine – it has a political message, but it will not; I believe change Turkey's position in this war," added Ozberk.
For Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent Turkish defense analyst, "Turkey's definitely walking on thin ice."
Doubling down on support for Ukraine will surely test Ankara's policy of balancing ties with Moscow and its Western allies, she says.
Agree to disagreeOzkarasahin maintains that this balancing act with Russia is very much Turkey's current diplomatic policy, which she calls "compartmentalisation, or "agree to disagree".
It means that Turkey and Russia can have different agendas on ongoing war in Ukraine or the situation in Syria, but still collaborate in different domains, such as energy trade.
"Ankara separates these things from each other, which forms one of the main pillars of its policy towards Russia and in the end, Turkey's a critical lifeline for Russia," she says.
While Turkey's defense industry is increasing its support for Ukraine and Western allies' efforts to supply the Ukrainian military, Ankara remains a vital trading partner with Russia.
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Sinan Ciddi points out that the US Treasury has sanctioned Turkish companies supplying duel-use goods to the Russian military, including microchips, parts that go directly into the manufacture of high-end Russian weaponry that is being used against the Ukrainians.
"Turkey is playing both sides of this," he says, warning that Washington and Ukraine could pay a considerable price for Ankara's support.
"It really does put the US in a bind, having to keep increasingly or consistently quiet about Turkey's double dipping, and so it's a double-edged sword," Ciddi says.
Turkey's longest-running peaceful protest has entered its thousandth week. For decades, the "Saturday Mothers" have been holding silent vigils to demand justice for relatives who disappeared while being held by security forces.
At Galatasaray Square, in the heart of Istanbul, a mother calls out for justice for a child who's not been seen for decades – since being apprehended by police.
The Saturday Mothers, named after a similar campaign in Argentina, gather in this square to demand answers. They want to know what happened to their missing relatives, and to hold those responsible to account.
On display are hundreds of photos of those who disappeared while being held by security forces. Among the youngest is a 13-year-old shepherd called Davut.
DenialsIkbal Eren has been campaigning for decades to find the truth behind her brother Hayrettin's enforced disappearance.
"Hayrettin Eren was detained at the Saraçhane crossing in Istanbul and taken to the Gayrettepe police headquarters, where he disappeared," Eren says.
"Although we have five witnesses confirming his detention, they always deny he was held. We also saw his car in the yard of the Security Directorate."
Even if 44 more years pass, Eren says he will not give up seeking justice for his brother and the others who are missing.
Hayrettin vanished during military rule in the 1980s, but most of the hundreds of enforced disappearances happened in the 1990s at the height of the Turkish state's war against the Kurdish rebel group, the PKK.
"Especially in the early '90s – '92 to '94 mostly – an enormous number of mainly men were arrested and never seen again," says Emma Sinclair Webb of Human Rights Watch.
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Justice eludedTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised justice in 2011, when he was prime minister, after meeting with some of the Saturday Mothers.
There were criminal investigations into those accused of being behind the disappearances, and even court cases, but all ended in acquittal.
The state has cracked down on the mothers in recent years, deeming their protest to be subversive. Galatasaray Square is now permanently sealed off, and usually only a weekly token of 10 or so people are allowed in.
"Those in power cannot bear to have these women and the relatives of the disappeared meeting every Saturday and presenting them with the crimes the state committed," said Sinclair Webb.
"For years the authorities have done everything in their power to criminalise this vigil and those who have been involved in it."
The thousandth week anniversary of Saturday Mothers, held in May, saw an outpouring of support across social media – and even a pop music video commemorating their struggle.
Rock star Teoman recorded the song "Saturday Mothers", recalling the fight for justice in the face of intimidation and adversity. The song's video went viral across social media.
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Ongoing struggleWith the Saturday Mothers campaign passing the thousand-week threshold, they're vowing to continue until they find justice for their lost relatives.
"We are trying to explain that our disappeared are not abandoned; they are not orphans. We are trying to learn about their fate," says Birsen Karakoc, who's been searching for her brother Ridvan since the 1990s.
"We are trying to understand why they were tortured to death. We want justice; that is why we are here every week.
"For 30 years we have been here since the first week, and we will continue to be here."
At the end of the 1,000th-week ceremony in Galatasaray Square, Birsen's brother Hasan places flowers on a sculpture celebrating the Turkish Republic.
He calls out to onlookers to say: "Until all our disappeared are found and those responsible are brought to justice, we will never give up."
Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi was laid to rest on Thursday, concluding days of funeral rites attended by thousands of mourners after his death in a helicopter crash last week. Experts say the tragedy may well increase tensions between Iran and Turkey, both vying for influence in the Middle East.
Hundreds of thousands marched in Raisi's home town Mashhad to bid farewell ahead of his burial following processions in the cities of Tabriz, Qom, Tehran and Birjand.
The 63-year-old died on Sunday alongside his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and six others after their helicopter went down in the country's mountainous northwest while returning from a dam inauguration on the border with Azerbaijan.
A huge search and rescue operation was launched, involving help from the European Union, Russia and Turkey before the crash site was located early on Monday.
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The Iranian military said that a drone dispatched by Turkey had failed to locate the crash site "despite having night-vison equipment".
"Finally, in the early hours of Monday morning, the exact spot of the helicopter crash was discovered by the ground rescue forces and Iranian drones of the armed forces," the military said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency.
Meanwhile, on Thursday Iran's army said it has so far found no evidence of criminal activity related to the crash.
Simmering tensionsThe high profile deaths come as rivalry continues to intensify between Iran and Turkey.
"For Turkey, the future of South Caucasia, Iraq and Syria are critical for its national security. And here in these areas of Turkey, all face Iranian opposition against Turkey's interests," explained Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University.
For example, the Turkish military is poised to launch a major offensive in Iraq and Syria against the bases of the Kurdish rebel group PKK, which is fighting the Turkish state.
Ankara has repeatedly criticised Tehran for failing to support its efforts, while Iran is concerned about Turkey encroaching in areas it considers to be in its sphere of influence.
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The death of Raisi has brought to the fore bitter memories of the killing by the United States four years ago of Qasim Soleimani, the veteran head of the international operations of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp.
"These two important personalities had been increasing Iranian influence in the Middle East very strongly," observed Professor of International Relations Huseyin Bagci at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.
Bagci says Turkey's diplomatic advantage will no doubt be stronger as Iran heads into presidential elections on 28 June.
"I don't know if the new foreign minister and President will somehow get the same level of this influence because they will be mostly inexperienced people," he says.
Internal fight for powerBagci suggests that a real internal fight for power will be problematic for the country because "Iranian society is much more dynamic and progressive than the regime.
"There is a partnership between the clerics and the military. But these two institutions are also fighting amongst each other."
However, if Iran's Revolutionary Guard increases its power, experts warn that it could also result in a more assertive use of Iranian proxies controlled by the IRGC in Iraq and Syria, which are often as odds with Turkish interests.
Alagoz says that the IRGC's view of the region is very problematic because the Iran proxies are a problem for the future of the Middle East.
"The overconfidence of the IRGC combined with political power will be a destabilising factor in the Middle East, and so Turkey will always be concerned by this issue."
With Ankara and Tehran competing for power from Syria and Iraq to Sudan, analysts say the outcome of Iran's transition of power could have significant implications across the region and for Turkish-Iranian relations.
Greece and Turkey are stepping up rapprochement efforts, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visiting Turkey on Monday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The trip is part of detente attempts after years of tensions centered on territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea.
Monday's meeting follows Erdogan's visit to Athens last December, which was also part of mutual efforts towards bringing the countries closer.
"I think it's one of the ways in which Turkey and Greece could add more new momentum to the diplomacy that has started," Berkay Mandiraci, a senior Turkey analyst for the International Crisis Group, said.
"They've been actually engaged in quite intense diplomacy on different fronts for over a year now."
Territorial disputes over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast energy reserves – have brought the neighbours to the brink of war in the past.
Both nations backing rival sides over the divided island of Cyprus has also thwarted previous rapprochement endeavours.
Side-stepping issues Erdogan and Mitsotakis are predicted to avoid contentious subjects and are expected to take a one-step-at-a-time approach on areas of collaboration.
Confidence-building measures under discussion include increasing trade, further developments of a recently expanded road at the Turkey-Greece border and ensuring visa-free travel to Turkish citizens for eastern Aegean islands.
"I think they are all important in terms of people-to-people contact, building trust, increasing trade and also improving connectivity and energy cooperation," Mandiraci said.
"Hopefully this will lead to the opening of a new round of negotiation on the Aegean dispute."
Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are seen to provide further incentive to improving ties as analysts say both leaders realise that bilateral tensions will only exacerbate regional instability.
"Look at what's happening in Israel, in Gaza and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Both sides want to limit their exposure to foreign risks," said political scientist Ioannis Grigoriadis of Ankara's Bilkent University.
"Greek-Turkish relations had gone through a very difficult period until five years ago, but ever since the earthquakes that hit south-eastern and southern Turkey, both sides have declared their willingness to reduce tensions."
Greece was quick to help Turkey after last year's earthquakes. But unless territorial disputes over the Aegean are addressed, the rapprochement is considered vulnerable – especially because both militaries are re-arming.
Common ground"As long as they don't tackle [the Aegean Sea dispute] and they don't take the bull by the horns, things will go like a pendulum, backward and forwards," said Alexis Heraclides of Panteion University in Athens.
"The Greek-Turkish relations in this region is the most complicated of relations. I'm not saying that it's impossible for them not to make a U-turn and get back to the default position of confrontation and mutual acrimonious accusations."
But there is cause for cautious optimism given that Erdogan and Mitsotakis renewed their electoral mandates last year.
"Both leaders are very strong domestically and this makes them less eager to listen to the sort of nationalist voices that exist in both countries that are more comfortable with a more aggressive attitude," said Grigoriadis.
Turkey has cut off trade with Israel as bilateral relations deteriorate over the Gaza conflict. The move follows domestic calls for a tougher stance against Israel, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a more prominent regional role.
The Turkish Trade Ministry announced Friday that all exports and imports with Israel have been cut until uninterrupted and adequate humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza.
The Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz, was quick to condemn the move, saying it violated trade agreements and was the action was that of a "dictator".
It follows Erdogan's high-profile meeting with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last month.
Domestic criticismErdogan's actions are seen as an attempt to quell growing domestic criticism of his complicated stance on the war – on one hand maintaining trade with Israel, while on the other condemning the country's war with Hamas.
"In order to convince conservative voters that there is no such thing as a hypocritical approach... they are taking a tougher stance and necessary measures," says Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.
Nasi says Erdogan could further deepen Turkey's ties with Hamas, especially if cut theirs.
"We know that Qatar has been facing a lot of pressure in the international arena because of its ties with Hamas," she points out.
"Turkey might emerge as a potential candidate country to host Hamas if Qatar decides to send Hamas members abroad."
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Regional cooperation?Erdogan's party was handed a thumping defeat in March local elections, which saw many of his traditional conservative religious voters abstaining or voting for opposition parties – a move blamed in part on ongoing trade ties with Israel.
However, Ankara is seeking a wider role in resolving the Gaza conflict. Erdogan is also stepping up diplomatic efforts with Egypt after hosting Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry in April.
Relations between Turkey and Egypt have been warming after years of tensions, and analysts say there's room for cooperation.
"Both are very active in the rhetorical space in terms of their deep sympathy for the Palestinians in Gaza. At the same time, they maintain their diplomatic and security ties with Israel," says Jalel Harchaoui at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
"Both are known – particularly Egypt, from Washington's perspective – for their direct communication line [with Hamas]. Both use that as a source of leverage vis-a-vis the West," he explains.
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But analysts warn Erdogan's public attacks on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu limit any mediating role for Turkey.
"At some point, the government has to moderate its tone, to repair its dialogue with Israel, because as it stands Turkey is no longer perceived as an impartial, third-party actor that can take on a role as a mediator," says Nasi.
She nonetheless believes there is room for Ankara to play a constructive role.
"Instead of perhaps endorsing Hamas, Turkey has to shift to a more balanced position between Hamas and Fatah and perhaps put its energy and resources into reconciling different rival Palestinian factions."
Washington visit postponedErdogan this month blamed Iran and Israel for increasing tensions, a break from only criticising Israel. Analysts say Turkey's close ties to Hamas could counter Iran's influence on the group.
However, Erdogan's overtures to Hamas were a factor in the postponement of a planned visit to Washington in May, which was blamed on scheduling issues.
"It's impossible not to rule out Gaza as one of the reasons for the cancellation," said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
"I think at a time when people are talking about mass graves and there are protests all around US campuses, the Turkish president does not want to be seen with the president of the United States," she suggests.
However, Aydintasbas suspects Washington, too, may not be unhappy about that Erdogan's visit was put on hold.
"I don't think the White House is in a place – for all types of reasons, including the domestic difficulty of this issue – to be hosting a world leader who's going to criticise in front of cameras the US position on Gaza," she says.
Despite the visit's postponement, Washington and Ankara say they remain committed to high-level cooperation.
While doubts remain about what meaningful role Turkey can play in resolving the Gaza conflict, given the scale of the crisis, the region needs all the help it can get.
A group of international activists are seeking to break Israel's blockade of Gaza with a flotilla of vessels carrying aid. But with 10 people killed by Israeli security forces in a similar mission 14 years ago, fears are growing that the latest flotilla could provoke a fresh crisis.
The loading of medical supplies and food is underway on the Akdeniz, an old ferry boat that will lead the flotilla of three ships carrying over 5,000 tonnes of aid to Gaza.
At a press conference, the flotilla's organisers, a coalition of international and Turkish humanitarian groups, claimed the flotilla is not just about delivering aid.
"We hope to break the illegal naval blockade of Gaza that Israel has had on it for decades," Ann Wright of US Boat to Gaza explained to RFI.
Wright acknowledged the aid they plan to deliver will do little to alleviate the humanitarian crisis but hopes it will open the door to more assistance.
"We hope to certainly bring food and medicines that are needed by the people of Gaza. But it's a small drop in the bucket. We're calling for the border of Rafah to be opened, where tons of food are waiting. It's criminal that the world has not forced the entry of these trucks into Gaza."
Wright said the issue was being forced because "people that are starving and suffering genocide must have assistance".
If the governments won't act, "we, the citizens will", she said.
Flotilla in 2010In 2010, ten people died the last time a flotilla sought to break Israel's Gaza blockade.
When Israeli commandos intercepted the Mavi Marmara, which was leading the flotilla, activists said they were aware of the dangers they faced, but given the humanitarian crisis in Gaza it was a risk worth taking.
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"We are conscious that it's not a mission without any danger," said Nima Machouf is with the group, Canada Boat to Gaza.
"But the danger and the horror is part of the horror that we want to denounce that it is faced by Palestinian people. Gaza people need medical support and need food."
Flotilla participants are given lessons on how to de-escalate a possible confrontation with Israeli forces. There has been no comment from Israeli officials.
Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Avi, warns the risks are real given the tensions in the region.
"Both on the Israeli side and on the Turkish side, there is an understanding of how dangerous things might get out of hand. So I think there will be caution, both from the Turkish side and the Israeli side," said Lindenstrauss.
"But obviously, this is a very, very intense time now in Israel. And, also, I would be very careful, and hope that, the authorities are on both sides are aware of what they need to do to make sure that this will not escalate into violence."
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is likely to have the final say on whether the flotilla will leave, has not commented on the mission.
But Erdogan met with Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh last Saturday, in which humanitarian aid to Gaza was discussed – a meeting Israel condemned.
Whatever risks flotilla organisers say they are determined to deliver aid to Gaza.
"Of course, we are worried, but, we think that, the time is now to act," said Torstein Dahle, a former Norwegian parliamentarian of Ship to Gaza Norway.
But Dahle says the flotilla is looking for international protection.
"We demand support from national governments, from everybody who has influence on this matter, to facilitate the supply of humanitarian aid to the starving people of Gaza," he said.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Iraq on Monday for the first time in 12 years. He'll be seeking support for Ankara's war against Kurdish rebels in Iraq as well as deeper economic ties.
With Turkish forces continuing their build-up for a major offensive against the Kurdish rebel group the PKK, enlisting Iraq's support is expected to top Erdogan's agenda in Baghdad.
The PKK has for decades used Iraqi territory to wage war against the Turkish state. Erdogan's visit is part of a new approach to Baghdad in fighting the PKK.
"Turkey wants to start a comprehensive strategy that has an economic, social, and security base," said Murat Aslan, a senior security analyst for the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, an Ankara-based think tank.
"In the meantime, expanding the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces may make Iraq much safer, and Turkey may feel more secure."
BreakthroughLast month, Ankara achieved a diplomatic breakthrough when Baghdad banned the PKK.
Erdogan will have also leverage when he visits Iraq. Iraq is suffering a severe drought and Baghdad has repeatedly called on Ankara to release more water from dams controlling rivers serving Iraq.
This week, Erdogan said he is ready to consider Baghdad's pleas.
"One of the most important agenda items of our visit is the water issue," Erdogan told reporters.
"Baghdad has made some requests regarding water and we are working on these issues.
"We will make efforts to resolve this issue with them. They already want to resolve this matter. We will take steps in this direction."
Bilateral tradeDeepening bilateral trade is also a key part of the Turkish leader's visit. Ankara seeks to increase international transit through Iraq as part of a planned new trade route between China and Europe.
"The main backbone of this upcoming presidential visit to Iraq, to Baghdad and Erbil, will be the new so-called development road," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Iraq.
"It will connect the port of Basra to the Turkish border, to Habur, or to a new border gate. Perhaps it will have a railroad, and then parallel to it, there will be a highway. And that will be an oil and gas pipeline."
Erdogan also said he may visit Erbil, the capital of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, with whom the Turkish leader has developed close ties.
However, Iran could thwart the goal of expanding Turkish influence in Iraq.
"In Baghdad, the sun does not shine without the approval of Iran, of course," warned Selcen, who works as a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news portal.
"So how will Ankara be able to align all these stars and build a capacity to cooperate with it? It's still debatable to me, and it looks unrealistic to me."
BalanceHowever, some experts say Baghdad is looking to Ankara to balance Tehran's influence, especially as speculation grows over the withdrawal of United States forces from Iraq, one of the few checks to Iran.
"My hunch is that the Iraqi government wishes to free itself at least somewhat from the grip of Iranian influence and Turkey can be a balancer," said Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
"I think Turkey would like to be a balancer here because Turkey, just like every other country in the region, is not all that happy with the kind of power that Iran has in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen."
The Turkish government has announced restrictions on Israeli trade, along with the suspension of scheduled flights to Israel. The moves come in the aftermath of a shock defeat for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party in nationwide local elections, in which the opposition targeted trade with Israel amid growing condemnation over the war in Gaza.
Turkish Airlines announced that it will not resume flights to Israel until March next year.
At the same time, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced sanctions on Israel after aid deliveries to Gaza were blocked by Israel.
"We have submitted our request to join this aid operation with cargo planes belonging to our air force. We learned today that our request – which had been approved by Jordanian authorities – was rejected by Israel," Fidan told a press conference.
"There can be no excuse for Israel preventing our attempts to send aid from the air to our Gazan brothers who are fighting hunger. In response to this situation, we have decided to take a series of new measures against Israel," he said.
Ankara has banned the export of 54 products to Israel, including aviation fuel, steel, and cement.
Fidan said the export ban would remain in force until Israel declares a ceasefire and allows aid to be delivered unhindered.
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'Hypocritical stance'Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz condemned the Turkish sanctions, accusing Ankara of supporting Hamas, and warned of retaliation.
The trade restrictions come amidst growing criticism in Turkey of the ruling AKP party's stance of condemning Israel's war on Hamas but maintaining trade relations, which the opposition claims supports the Israeli military war effort.
The government's stance had become untenable, argues Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
There is "pressure from the public over this hypocritical stance on Israel", he says. "You have all these AKP-related businesses or AKP politicians very closely, intimately trading with Israel and stuff. They [the government] had to respond somewhat; they had to show that they were doing something."
Suspending Turkish Airlines flights was the "best, most effective, and most visible way of doing it", according to Ozel.
"I think there must be over 30 daily flights, and this was supposed to be one of the most profitable lines that Turkish Airlines operate."
Electoral meltdownLast month, President Erdogan's AKP suffered its worst electoral defeat to date in nationwide local elections.
The Islamist Yeniden Refah Party – led by Fatih Erbakan, son of Erdogan's former political mentor Necmettin Erbakan – targeted the AKP's religious base, focusing his campaign on condemning the Turkish president for continuing to trade with Israel.
"Fatih Erbakan is once again an important figure apparently," observes Istar Gozaydin, a specialist on Turkish religion and state relations at Istanbul's Istinye University.
"I think the sort of end is near for AKP, but I guess it will be replaced by the Yeniden Refah Party," he adds.
Crucial relationsProtests in Turkey are continuing against relations with Israel. However, Israeli analysts say trade and travel are vital to maintain bilateral ties at times of diplomatic tension.
"It's unprecedented; there's for so long no flights from Turkey to Israel and from Israel to Turkey, and that's a damage to the relationship," warns Gallia Lindenstrauss, an expert with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
"Also for business relationships, it's very important to have a regular transport route."
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"There were things that kept the relations going, even though the political relations were in crisis," she explains.
"And one element was the economic relations, and part of this was also the travel connections and the transport connections between Turkey and Israel, and the fact that people-to-people relations were enabled."
All eyes on GazaEven when Israeli forces in 2010 killed 10 Turkish citizens delivering aid by ship to Gaza, flights and trade between the countries were unaffected.
But analysts warn given the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Israel's ongoing war against Hamas, this time could be different.
"This is a goddamn massacre that's going on for six months that people are watching live," says international relations expert Ozel.
"People are watching live, and this is truly unconscionable; that's why the level of protest on this particular issue of trading with Israel has increased as the devastation became even worse."
With Israeli forces poised to launch a new offensive into Gaza, protests against ongoing Turkish trade with Israel are predicted to grow – and add further pressure on Erdogan.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's worst electoral defeat in nationwide municipal elections has changed Turkey's political landscape. However, the Opposition's victory came at an awkward time. Turkey's Western allies were looking to strengthen ties with the Turkish President.
Turkey's main opposition CHP (Republican People’s Party) gains in nationwide local elections are a significant reversal of the party's fortunes after Erdogan's resounding reelection last May.
"After the opposition's loss in the May elections, everybody thought the opposition was in a state of despair," explains Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul polling firm Economics Research.
"But that doesn't seem to be the case, and it's a turning point for the Turkish political landscape.
"It's the first time since 1977 that CHP has managed to come out number one in the popular vote."
Threat of authoritarianism
With much of the media under his control and the judiciary targeting dissent, critics claim Erdogan's grip on power is tightening.
Addressing supporters on election night Ekrem Imamoglu, the re-elected CHP mayor for Istanbul who Erdogan personally tried to unseat, claimed his victory was a stand against the global threat of authoritarianism.
"Today is a pivotal moment not only for Istanbul, but for democracy itself. As we celebrate our victory, we send a message that will reverberate worldwide,” Imamoglu told thousands of jubilant supporters.
"Democracy's decline is now ending," continued the mayor, "Istanbul stands as a beacon of hope, a testament to the resilience of democratic values in the face of growing authoritarianism."
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Muted reactions
Despite this,Turkey's Western allies' response to the CHP's resounding victory was muted.
"There were no congratulations extended, even to Turkey's democracy, let alone to the opposition itself," Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said.
“[This] is a big contrast compared to the May elections because right after the May elections, the Western leaders, one after the other, extended their congratulations to Erdogan.
"So there is a recognition that Erdogan is here to stay, and they don't want to make him cross. And given that there is the Ukraine war on one side and the Gaza war on the other, they want a stable Turkey.”
Turkey's location, bordering the Middle East and Russia, makes Ankara a critical ally for Europe and the United States in international efforts to control migration and contain Russia.
Ahead of the March polls, Erdogan had been engaged in rapprochement with his Western allies, with Washington even inviting the Turkish President for a summit in May.
However, Erdogan could still pose a headache to his Western allies as he ramps up his nationalist rhetoric in the aftermath of his defeat.
"We are determined to show that terrorism has no place in the future of Türkiye and the region," Erdogan said Thursday. "With the recent elections, this determination has been further strengthened."
Massive military offensive
Meanwhile, Erdogan has warned that his army is poised to launch a massive military offensive into Northern Iraq and Syria against the Kurdish group PKK, including affiliates that work with American forces in fighting the Islamic State.
A crackdown on the PKK, analysts say, will play well with conservative nationalist voters. Those voters were the ones with which the opposition scored its biggest successes in Central Turkey – a region known as Anatolia - for the first time in a generation.
"CHP has never been successful in those places before. These are places that are considered to be religiously conservative, or at least conservative," Istar Gozaydin, a Turkish religion and state relations expert at Istanbul's Istinye University, said.
"And that's also valid for Central Anatolia. Central Anatolia is usually much more nationalist and much more religiously sensitive, but for the first time, they've been successful.”
It is not the first time Erdogan has sought to play the nationalist card. After the 2015 general election in which the president's AK Party lost its parliamentary majority, Erdogan launched military operations against the PKK across Turkey's predominantly Kurdish region, leveling many city centres.
Erdogan’s action resulted in his AK Party taking power in a second election later that year.
Fix the economy
"I'm sure there's a temptation," said analyst Can Selcuki, "but the facts on the ground do not allow it. Erdogan needs to fix the economy."
Turkey's near 70% inflation and 50% interest rates, were widely seen as key factors in AK Party's defeat. But analyst Sezin Oney of Turkey's Politikyol news portal says a new conflict could change the political rules of the game.
"The economy is a concern, but there is a war psyche, then he [Erdogan] might be propagating," Oney added..
Some Turkish analysts say the opposition victory will be viewed privately as inconvenient by some of Turkey's Western allies coming at a time of growing cooperation with Erdogan, with the fear now that Erdogan's resounding defeat could make the Turkish leader unpredictable at a critical time in both the Middle East and Russia's war with Ukraine.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to end the threat posed by Kurdish rebel group the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades. As Turkey prepares to launch a major military operation against the organisation in Iraq, it is looking to other governments in the region for support.
Turkish forces have been carrying out military operations in northern Iraq for the last two years against bases of the PKK, which has been fighting for Kurdish minority rights in Turkey for decades.
But Erdogan is now vowing to permanently end the threat posed by the PKK and its affiliates in neighbouring Syria.
"We have preparations that will give new nightmares to those who think that they will bring Turkey to its knees with a 'Terroristan' along our southern borders," the Turkish president bellowed earlier this month.
According to Mesut Casin, a presidential adviser and professor of international politics at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, the military operation is expected to take aim at PKK targets along the more than 300km border that Turkey shares with Iraq.
"By securing the Iraq border, Turkey is expected to create a 40km new security corridor, similar to the one in Syria," he said.
But Casin also stressed that, to end the PKK threat, Ankara is looking beyond military means to a new model of military and diplomatic cooperation with the leaders of Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan.
Regional cooperationAnkara got a boost in its war against the PKK this month when Baghdad banned the Kurdish group.
Erdogan is also developing close ties with the leadership of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government in Erbil.
Such cooperation is seen as vital to Ankara's goal of eradicating the PKK threat.
"Turkey will focus on the capacity of Iraqi security forces, together with the Kurdish regional government's Peshmerga [Iraqi Kurdish soldiers]," explained Murat Aslan, an analyst with Turkish think tank the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research.
"Turkey wants a full encirclement of all PKK members in Iraq and then to destroy them, neutralise them," Aslan said.
New leverageIn April, Erdogan is scheduled to visit both Erbil and Baghdad, where the PKK is expected to top the agenda.
Enhanced bilateral trade and increasing international transit trade through Iraq to Turkey is seen as giving Erdogan new leverage with Baghdad.
"The carrot is the new so-called 'Development Road', which will connect Basra port to to the Turkish border, to Habur or to a new border gate," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Iraq.
"Perhaps it will have a railroad, then a parallel highway, which will bring billions of US dollars to Baghdad's coffers," continued Selcen, now a regional analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news portal.
"For that project to be realistic, there should be stability and security in Iraq. So in a way, Ankara wishes to repackage the combat against PKK within that project."
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Iran questionHowever, analysts predict Iran's cooperation will also be needed, given that the PKK headquarters are located in the mountainous Qandil region.
"Why is Iran important? Because the Qandil mountains are not only in Iraq. They are divided between Iran and Iraq," explained analyst Aslan.
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"Whenever an operation is planned and implemented in the region, [the PKK] go to Iran, enjoy a safe haven, and come back," he said.
"So this campaign should be complemented by Iranian efforts, but it's not guaranteed. We will see what happens."
With the rivalry between Turkey and Iran increasing across the region, Tehran may be reluctant to accommodate Ankara's demands. That could add to ongoing bilateral tensions, giving the PKK room to escape the tightening Turkish grip.
A naval agreement between Turkey and Somalia positions the Turkish navy in a strategically vital region, underlining Ankara's growing ambitions at sea. But analysts warn that the deal threatens to escalate tensions with Somalia's neighbour, Ethiopia.
Under a ten-year defence agreement ratified earlier this month, the Turkish navy will help protect Somalia's territorial waters and facilitate training and equipment for the Somali navy.
The deal is just the latest step in Ankara's deepening relationship with Mogadishu.
"Not only is this the location of Turkey's largest international military base, it's also the location of Turkey's largest embassy in the world," explains Norman Ricklefs, chair of multinational consultancy group Namea.
"This shows the importance Turkey has placed on Somalia, and rebuilding Somalia as a major state in the Horn of Africa, and making Somalia's future success part of Turkey's broader strategic goals in eastern Africa in the Red Sea region," he says.
Turkey also signed an energy exploration deal with Somalia this month. The East African country is believed to have major oil and gas reserves both on land and within its territorial waters.
Blue-water navy Experts see the deepening of ties with Somalia as part of growing international competition for influence in this strategically vital region.
"This will provide Turkey an opportunity to increase its influence in the Horn of Africa," says Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an associate professor of African studies at Ankara's Social Sciences University.
"Because all those external countries – Gulf countries, Western countries... even Japan – have bases in Djibouti, they are all vying to increase their development in the region, especially for economic purposes. So this is also an opportunity for Turkey," she says.
The Somali deal comes as Ankara rapidly expands its navy's so-called "blue-water" capabilities – the ability to operate on the open oceans, far from the country's home ports.
Turkey has built up a fleet of energy research ships and a growing navy.
"[Naval expansion] focuses on the projection of Turkish military capacity in the maritime domain – both in protecting its own exclusive economic zones and waters, while also helping its allies and partners to do the same," explains Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent defence analyst.
"And Somalia has been facing an increased threat of piracy."
Tensions with EthiopiaTurkey's deepening military ties with Somalia come as the Horn of Africa nation faces tension with its neighbour, Ethiopia.
In January, Ethiopia infuriated Somalia by signing an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland, giving Addis Ababa long-desired sea access.
But Mehmet Ozkan of the Turkish National Defence University says Ankara is well placed to contain any fallout, given its ties with Ethiopia.
"Military cooperation, personal cooperation, the personal relationship between the leaders – I think relations are pretty good," he says.
"Because in the region everybody is looking for security cooperation, and it's same for Ethiopia... Turkey is a security provider for Ethiopia as well."
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'Drone diplomacy'With Turkish-made military drones widely used by both the Ethiopian and Somali militaries in their wars against insurgencies, Ankara's so-called "drone diplomacy" has been instrumental in balancing its relations with rivals.
"Turkey has also probably supplied some drones to Somalia – which are operated by Turkish operators, not Somalis – but they've been useful in the conflict against Al-Shabaab," explains analyst Ricklefs.
"I know Turkey has a good relationship with Ethiopia. It has a good relationship with Somalia. So its presence in Somalia is more likely than not – given Turkey's broader strategic aims in the region – to have a stabilising effect rather than a destabilising effect," he argues.
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However, Africa expert Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu warns that, given the region's volatility, Ankara will still need to tread carefully.
"In the long run, this might lead to Turkey's involvement in regional conflicts. This is what Turkey was trying to avoid in its Africa policy: it does not want to be a part of African conflicts, but it might be dragged into [them]," she says.
As Turkey extends its influence in one of the most volatile parts of the world, analysts suggest Ankara will need to perfect its diplomatic balancing skills.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leading a battle to regain control of Istanbul in hotly contested local elections this month. However, opposition media is warning about deepfake videos in campaign ads, while international rights groups are voicing alarm over social media companies' willingness to comply with Turkish censorship ahead of the critical polls.
Polls show the elections are going to be a tight contest. But as Erdogan's AK Party steps up efforts to regain control of Istanbul, an artificial intelligence-generated video of incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu praising Erdogan for his achievements in Istanbul has been circulating on social media.
Independent media warn of the threat of fake news, as mainstream media, which is mostly under government control, are not verifying the authenticity of the videos.
Deepfake videos
"Deepfake videos are usually not posted on news sites, but they reach millions of people as advertisements. These stick to the candidate." explains Hikmet Adal , social media editor at Bianet, an independent news portal.
"The voting segment in Turkey is 40 million. When you ask people if Ekrem Imamoglu actually said this, they will say 'he did' because they only follow the mainstream media," added Adal.
During last year's presidential elections, Erdogan used a video falsely showing his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu with leaders of the Kurdish separatist group the PKK, which is fighting the Turkish government.
Yaman Akdeniz of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association fears more fake news videos will appear as election day draws closer.
"We will witness more of these leading into the local elections, which is of course a major concern," warns Akdeniz,
"And there were some examples of that prior to the May 2023 general elections. A photo of the opposition leader came out with PKK leaders. Even the president of Turkey commented , saying that he knows that it is fake, but they still used it."
Turkey's small independent media sector, which is crucial to the exposing of fake news is facing increasing pressure from Turkish authorities. Much of their news is blocked on social media.
"What we've seen is that very, very often material, mainly news on social media, is removed and blocked online," explains Emma Sinclair-Webb senior Turkey researcher of Human Rights Watch.
Call for action
Human Rights Watch was among 22 international rights groups calling on social media companies to stand up to Turkish authorities' demands for removal of postings.
"It's very concerning to see that authorities are willing to clamp down on free speech, but social media companies themselves are not robust enough to stand up to this pressure," added Sinclair-Webb,
"We want them to be more transparent and to work together in raising concerns about requests by Turkey to block content that is clearly within the boundaries of freedom of expression and also to contest others in court in Turkey. "
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A growing number of prosecutions of independent media under a new disinformation law adds to the pressures they face. Many Turks are now turning to international news platforms.
But Turkish authorities are blocking internet access to foreign news sources which broadcast in Turkish like Deutsche Welle and Voice of America.
These portals are only accessible by a virtual private network, or VPN, which circumvents the ban. But now, some of the most widely used VPNs also face restrictions.
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"Restricting access to the internet has become a sort of playbook for regimes and authoritarian governments. And so we see across the world an increase in VPN usage, especially in countries like this, like Turkey," said Antonio Cesarano of Proton, a VPN provider.
"It's a cat-and-mouse game. We will try our best to keep fighting and to keep investing in technology that can bring people back online."
Turkish based independent news providers warn they are facing a losing battle in verifying fake news.
"As alternative media, it is not possible for us to fight against this," said Bianet, social media editor Adal.
"Our teams are very limited to 20 people, maybe 15 people, at maximum. But there is an army behind this.
With opinion polls indicating the Istanbul election too close to call, analysts warn the danger of fake news is likely to grow along with pressure on independent news.
Turkey and Italy are finding common ground as they seek to expand their economic and diplomatic influence in Africa. The two nations are eyeing opportunities to cooperate on security, energy and migration as France's traditional influence on the continent wanes.
This month, Somalia's parliament ratified an agreement with Turkey to provide naval protection and assistance in building a Somali navy, another step in Turkey's efforts to expand its African presence.
"With this pact, Turkey will protect the Somali coast from pirates, terrorists – anyone that violates our maritime borders, like Ethiopia," declared Abdifatah Kasim, Somalia's deputy defence minister.
The defence deal was followed by a bilateral agreement on energy exploration in Somalia.
Ankara's growing influence in the region was underscored by a strong African presence at Turkey's annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum, with seven African heads of state, seven prime ministers and 25 foreign ministers in attendance.
In January, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosted African leaders at a summit in Rome, where she unveiled plans to expand Italy's influence on the continent.
"Our future inevitably depends on the future of the African continent. We are aware of this, and we want to do our part," Meloni declared.
"That's why we have decided to launch an ambitious programme of interventions that can help the continent grow and prosper, starting from its immense resources."
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Common ground in LibyaAnalysts say both countries are considering cooperating as a means of achieving their Africa goals.
"Italy is trying to fulfil a position that Western countries in some way left over the last decades, while Turkey has already been in Africa and in sub-Saharan Africa," observes Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, an Italian think tank.
"The main issues for confrontation or cooperation – we will see – will be migration, energy issues, and, of course, the economic development of these countries," she says.
Also in January, Meloni met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. The meeting included talks on Africa, with a focus on cooperation in Libya – a country where experts say Ankara has considerable influence, including a military base.
The North African nation is a main transit route for migrants seeking to enter Europe, mainly through Italy.
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Italy, France and other European countries see that as a "huge threat", according to Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu of the African Studies Department at Ankara's Social Sciences University.
"So there is room to cooperate in this area and to prevent the illegal flow of migrants, and cooperate in the security area as well."
On Tuesday, the Italian and Turkish defence ministers held talks in Ankara. Exploiting Libya's vast energy reserves is also potential common ground.
France on the outsMeanwhile the recent ousting of regimes sympathetic to France in Niger, Mali and Gabon – and with it, the withdrawal of French forces – has severely weakened France's historical political and economic influence in West Africa.
That offers an opportunity to Italy and Turkey.
"Italy could have an important cooperation with Turkey in order to take advantage of the position left aside by some countries like France, like Germany, like the other Western countries in Africa," says analyst Chiriatti.
"But it will also depend on the bilateral agenda and bilateral interests expressed by Turkey and Italy," she adds. "That's not always the same. So in this sense, we need to see what will happen in the future step by step."
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Business opportunitiesChiriatti warns that cooperation can easily turn into rivalry in business. But Africa's vast economic potential is seen as offering plenty of room for partnership.
"There are several areas where Turkey can cooperate with other countries, including European countries, because Turkish companies are trying to increase their investments," says Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu.
"They would like to gain new contracts for large projects, et cetra. Africa is in desperate need of infrastructure. There's a huge energy deficit and infrastructure gap in the whole continent," she notes.
With Italy and Turkey lacking the financial muscle of other influential players on the continent – notably China – both countries have powerful incentives to focus on potential partnership in their bid to expand their influence in Africa.
Heavily armed police are protecting churches across Istanbul day and night after an Islamic State attack on a Catholic church in Istanbul. The terrorist group has warned of further attacks against Christians and Jews.
Turkish security forces have detained hundreds of suspects in the aftermath of January's deadly attack on Santa Maria Catholic Church in the Sariyer district, which killed one person.
The death toll could have been considerably higher if the gunmen's automatic weapons had not jammed.
The Islamic State group claimed responsibility in a statement that warned it was targeting Jews and Christians in Turkey.
Istanbul's small Christian community, although fearful, remains defiant.
"It's not necessary to be a member of the congregation to be frightened. It's something that would terrify anyone," declared Ilhan Guzelis after attending his local church service.
"We're scared, but believe me, we've never hesitated to come to our church, to worship here, and to pray to God."
Game of cat and mouseTwo men, a Russian and a Tajik national, have been arrested for carrying out the attack, while over a hundred others have been detained across the country.
Experts say Turkish security forces are now engaged in a deadly cat-and-mouse game with the terror group also known as Isis or Daesh.
"This is a mutual competition between the security forces and terrorist cells," Murat Aslan of the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (Seta) told RFI.
"Both sides will try to identify or deceive each other. And in this case, I believe the Daesh terrorists were skilful, at least to bypass the security measures."
Aslan warns the job is becoming harder for Turkey's security forces as the face of Islamic State evolves. He cites changes to assailants' personal appearance, for example: recent attackers have worn regular clothes and shaved their beards, which helps them blend into a crowd.
"They are regular citizens. So it's not that much easier to distinguish exactly who is radical or not, for instance. In the latest incident in the church, the individuals were like regular citizens," he said.
Turkish targetsAdding to security woes is the proximity of Turkey to Syrian territory once held by Islamic State and other radical jihadist groups.
"There are armed groups in Turkey. They still have baggage in Turkey, the remnants of the armed groups inside Turkey, even Isis remnants back from the Syrian war," claims Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal.
The last time Islamic State successfully carried out a major attack in Turkey was in 2017, when a gunman went on the rampage during New Year celebrations, killing 39 people at an Istanbul nightclub.
But Aslan warns that Turkey offers numerous targets.
"The church attack was really significant in terms of the potential of Daesh," he says.
"Turkey hosts a lot of churches and Jewish holy sites. Once [terrorists] enjoy a presence here and set up hidden cells, they can easily select a target."
Fears for tourist seasonWith Turkey's lucrative tourism season only a month or so away, bringing with it further potential targets for Islamic State, the government security crackdown is predicted to intensify.
Christians like Guzelis have mixed feelings over the presence of such patrols around the city's churches.
"After such an incident, it is good for us that [the police] come here to protect us here again, even as a presence; we are grateful for this," he says.
"I wish that there would be no such matters, that everyone would live together here as brothers and sisters. But we are sorry for what happened; it creates a bitterness in us."
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As Turkey's rapprochement with the United States gathers pace, the future of Turkish-purchased Russian S-400 missiles is increasingly in question. The missile deal is a potent symbol of Ankara's close ties with Moscow, but Washington is offering to sell Turkey its advanced F35 military jet for the removal of the Russian weapons.
Ankara was kicked out of the jet program after it purchased Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, which Washington said compromised the F-35's stealth technology.
Now Turkey's purchase of the advanced F-35 military jet could be back on the agenda.
Acting deputy of Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, during a visit to Istanbul last month, offered to revive the jet sale if the Russian missiles were removed.
Along with the $2.5 billion (€2.3 billion) price tag for the Russian missiles, Ankara paid a heavy price militarily and economically by being expelled from the F-35 program.
Founding partnerTurkey was one of the founding partners of the jet program, with Turkish companies building numerous parts for the plane.
Diplomatically the missile sale created a deep divide between Turkey and its NATO partners, raising questions over its allegiance to the Western military alliance.
"After the purchase of the anti-aircraft missiles, which was unprecedented, some people in [President] Erdogan's cabinet also admitted this was a big mistake," says Onur Isci, a Russian affairs expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University told RFI.
"Turkey's purchase of the S-400s was a very costly endeavor."
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The S-400 missile sale was a powerful symbol of deepening Russian Turkish ties and deteriorating relations with Washington.
The sale came in the aftermath of Ankara's accusations of Washington's involvement in the 2016 failed coup attempt against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the first leaders to offer Erdogan support during the attempted putsch.
Important symbolWhile the Russian missiles sit in a warehouse undeployed, they remain an important symbol of Erdogan's close ties to Putin, making their removal difficult for the Turkish president.
"The buying of the S-400 air defence system from Russia was a diplomatic catastrophe of historical magnitude," says former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, now a regional analyst.
"Unfortunately, it is not possible. I am led to believe that Erdogan will walk back from that mistake ... It was an unforced error. It was an own goal, whichever metaphor you like."
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However, US-Turkish ties are improving with Ankara's ratification of Sweden's NATO membership and Washington's reciprocating by allowing the sale of F16 jets to Turkey.
But the F16 is inferior to the F35, which neighbor and rival Greece is set to purchase as part of its military modernisation, causing alarm in Ankara.
"When you read Turkey's hawks, everybody is afraid that the air force balance over the Aegean is not tilting or is going to be tilting in favor of Greece," warns Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
Waiting gameWhether Ankara takes up Washington's offer of F-35 jets in exchange for removing the Russian-made missiles – possibly to a Turkish ally like Azerbaijan, Qatar, or even Libya – depends on the progress of improving relations with the United States.
"It's very important if we see any more moves from Washington," says Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"The F35 was the first signal in years that that was a really positive signal from Washington. Ankara is waiting to hear the continuation of that message."
Erdogan's close ties with Putin have benefited Turkey in deferments on energy payments for Russian energy. The Turkish leader is predicted to be looking to Washington to pay a high price to remove the Russian weapons.
"Turkey can easily renounce on S-400; it's a political decision, it's not a military necessity," said Huseyin Bagci, head of the Foreign Policy Institute, a research organisation in Ankara.
"So far, the S-400 has helped Turkey to increase the level of negotiations with NATO and the United States of America."
Ankara's purchase of Russian missiles was widely seen as a diplomatic triumph for Moscow, dividing Turkey from its NATO allies.
Their removal would be a similarly significant victory for Washington.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Cairo this week formally ended more than a decade of animosity with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, with the two leaders committing their countries to a new era of cooperation.
A military band and gun salute welcomed Erdogan when he arrived in Cairo on Wednesday, as Sisi rolled out the red carpet for his Turkish counterpart.
Not long ago, the two leaders were more used to exchanging angry barbs. But now the talk is about cooperation to prevent Israel's looming military offensive against Hamas in the southern Gaza Strip and the growing humanitarian crisis there.
"We will continue the cooperation and solidarity with our Egyptian brothers for the bloodshed in Gaza to stop," Erdogan declared at a joint press conference with Sisi.
"In the medium term, we are ready to work with Egypt for Gaza to recover and be rebuilt."
Decade-long riftBilateral relations plunged into a deep freeze after Sisi ousted Erdogan's close ally, Mohamed Morsi, in a 2013 coup.
Erdogan's visit to Cairo resulted from intense and ultimately successful diplomatic efforts to end years of antagonism between the leaders.
"Reconciliation, an official visit by the Turkish president to Egypt, a meeting there is in and of itself significant," observes international relations expert Soli Ozel, a lecturer at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
"Given what transpired in the past, obviously, this is a major move on the part of both President Erdogan and President Sisi."
Clampdown on critical mediaFor years, groups affiliated with Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood and critical of Sisi broadcast from Istanbul – further stoking tensions between Turkey and Egypt.
"These Political Islam-inspired narratives across the whole region are obviously something that is considered corrosive by the Egyptian government," says political scientist Jalel Harchaoui, of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London.
Harchaoui claims moves by Ankara to curtail opposition TV broadcasting in recent years facilitated the rapprochement with Cairo.
"It has always found a home in terms of being able to get broadcast across the region in Istanbul. But Erdogan was able to reduce these freedoms as part of his conversation with Cairo," Harchaoui says.
Regional realignmentTurkey's deployment of troops in the Middle East and North Africa is also a point of tension with Cairo. Turkey and Egypt backed rival sides in the Libyan civil war.
But Erdogan, speaking to the media with Sisi, pledged a new era of cooperation.
"We had the opportunity to evaluate the issues in Libya, Sudan and Somalia," the Turkish president said. "We give full support to the unity, togetherness, territorial integrity and peace of these three brotherly countries."
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During his Cairo visit, Erdogan underlined that rapprochement with Sisi was part of a more comprehensive policy of repairing ties across the region.
"We never want to see conflict, tension, or crises in Africa, the Middle East or other places in our geography," Erdogan said.
"With this aim, we are determined to increase our contacts with Egypt at every level for the establishment of peace and stability in our region."
Libya breakthrough?Turkey and Egypt are two of the region's powerhouses, and rivalry between the countries has only exacerbated conflicts in the region, particularly in Libya, argues Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila.
"In general, I think this is good," she said of their rapprochement. "I think it's helpful for Libya as well because both sides support different factions in Libya. And the stalemate has gone on for such a long time.
"It's about time that the existing powers figure out something that everybody can agree on, and there is a deal to be had."
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Burweila believes Erdogan's rapprochement with Sisi and the broader region is also born out of the realisation that cooperation is more productive than rivalry.
"I think both parties realised that the best way forward is to cooperate and discuss, and that Turkey has realised that without economic partners in the Middle East, it cannot move forward," she said.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on a visit to Libya this month, stressed the importance of Erdogan's meetings in Cairo to secure Libya's long-term future.
Erdogan and Sisi also discussed the development of the region's energy resources.
Such cooperation, observers suggest, could mark a new era in bilateral relations between these two regional heavyweights.
Turkish military forces are carrying out an air assault on US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria, and Ankara has warned that a land operation may follow. The crackdown comes amid reports that Washington may pull its forces out of Syria and Iraq.
Turkey's government accuses Kurdish forces in north-eastern Syria of being linked to attacks on its army.
Turkish drone strikes are bombarding oil refineries and electricity production in the Syrian border region controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of ethnic militias and rebel groups.
"The targets are energy infrastructure and that sort of stuff. Obviously, the goal is to make that area not sustainable, as a sustainable haven for the SDF," says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat and now regional analyst for the Medyascope news portal.
The SDF's ranks include the Kurdish People's Defence Units (YPG) and Women's Protection Units (YPJ), which Ankara accuses of being affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. The armed movement is considered a terrorist organisation by both Ankara and Washington.
"The end game as defined by the Turkish authorities is to prevent a terrorist statelet [being created] beyond Turkish borders," explains Selcen.
"This means allowing the PKK or its Syrian affiliates, the YPG and YPJ, to establish a local administration in that area. War on terror is perhaps the number one priority for this government."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last month threatened a new land invasion into Syria.
Turkish forces already control a large swathe of Syrian territory from previous operations against Syrian Kurdish forces.
Possible US withdrawalThe SDF is backed by a US military force of around 900 soldiers in the war against the so-called Islamic State group, raising the possibility of a conflict between NATO and its allies.
Ankara's ongoing assault comes amid reports that Washington is considering pulling its forces out of Syria and Iraq.
"Washington may be preparing to hand off SDF as a partner to the Syrian regime and saying: 'you guys sort yourselves out, we are actually going to leave'," said Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi of the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
"The administration is apparently toying with the idea that it's no longer worth keeping US troops there because they are in harm's way," he said.
At least some in the US administration want to explore, if they pulled their troops from northern Syria, "the extent to which Turkey could sort out its problems with the Kurds via engaging with the Syrian regime", Ciddi added.
US-Turkey resetA US withdrawal from Syria would relieve years of tension between NATO allies Turkey and the United States.
"Unfortunately, this relationship with the United States and YPG creates a barrier between Turkey and the United States," said Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University.
"A NATO ally should not act against other allies' national concerns," she said. "That's the main reason why Turkey perceives US policy in Syria as a national security concern."
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With Ankara last month lifting its veto on Sweden's NATO membership and the White House reciprocating by green-lighting the sale of military jets to Turkey, the NATO allies appear to be seeking to reset ties.
Analyst Selcen warns time may be running out for the SDF.
"If the Americans leave, it will be very difficult for the SDF to survive unless they cut a deal with Damascus," Selcen said. "But the timing is of the essence, of course – they cannot get the same terms that they will get once the Americans leave."
Damascus compromiseBut Selcen suggests if the SDF moves quickly, it could secure a deal with Damascus that ensures its survival – at least in the short term, given the weakness of the Syrian security forces.
"At the end of the day, they will have to come up with some kind of modus vivendi with [Syrian President Bashar Al] Assad. It does not mean that Assad will come to control this region again as he did. But they will have to come up with some sort of a solution with Damascus."
There could equally be advantages for the Turkish government, he believes.
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"It will also be, in the end, a kind of a safe face-saving formula for Ankara, which can now take Damascus as the main interlocutor to deal with this [Kurdish problem]," Selcen said.
"All these sides will be very happy to see the American presence leave the region – with the exception of, of course, the Iraqi Kurds and the Syrian Kurds."
Opposition to the US military presence in Syria is rare common ground between Ankara and Damascus.
If Damascus was to retake control of the predominantly Kurdish region, analysts say, it could be enough for Erdogan to claim victory over the SDF, end Turkey's assault, and remove the main point of tension between Ankara and Washington.
Ankara's ratification of Sweden's NATO membership after a 10-month delay has spurred hopes of a reset in relations between Turkey and the alliance, but tensions still run deep.
French President Emmanuel Macron's recent state visit to Sweden focused heavily on defence amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.
While its NATO membership was seen as critical amid persisting concerns over border security, Turkey refused to ratify Sweden’s entry until a long list of demands from its partners were met.
Sweden's accession saw a lifting of restrictions by NATO countries on military hardware sales to Turkey, says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who is now a regional analyst for Mediyacope, a Turkish news portal.
"F-16s are being bought [from the US]. This will keep the Turkish air force up in the air for some time... Deals like this one will keep the relationship afloat," he told RFI.
F-16 dealFor years, US President Joe Biden blocked the sale of American F-16 fighter jets amid concerns over rising tensions between Turkey and its neighbours over territorial disputes.
With Ankara ratifying NATO's expansion, the White House has authorised the sale, and Congress is expected to ratify the deal. However it may not be the diplomatic victory Ankara claims.
"The last I heard was the State Department was drawing up a letter demanding the transfer of F-16s as a kind of a certification program," says Turkey specialist Sinan Ciddi, of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
"They could halt transfers if the Turks , for example, continue to antagonise Greek airspace or overflights."
Erdogan's advantage?Erdogan may retain an advantage, though. Hungary has yet to ratify Sweden's membership and Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Oban is a close ally of the Turkish leader.
Last week, acting US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland held two days of talks in Ankara. The talks were focused on enabling better cooperation between the US and Turkey.
Analyst Selcen says Turkey's is still as strategically important to NATO as it was when it joined in 1952 at the height of the Cold War.
"The same geopolitical reasons to keep Turkey as a strong military ally remain valid," said Selcen. "On the one hand against the north, Russia, and on the other Iran and other terrorist threats."
The war against the Islamic State jihadists remains a point of tension because of Washington's support for Syrian Kurdish fighters.
These include the YPG, which is affiliated with the PKK, and which has been fighting Turkey for decades and is designated by both the European Union and the US as a terrorist group.
"The US relationship with YPG poisons almost all the potential collaborations," political scientist Bilgehan Alagoz of Istanbul's Marmara University says.
So first [the] United States should check its policy towards the YPG, and then Turkey and the United States can start talking about other issues."
Erdogan, Alagoz adds, is holding NATO hostage to extract concessions over Sweden's membership.
Along with his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his refusal to impose sanctions against Moscow, this is raising questions over Ankara's loyalties.
With the threat posed by Russia expected to grow, and the danger of contagion from the Israel-Hamas conflict, resolving the trust deficit between Turkey and its NATO partners has never been more important.
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Sweden's bid to join NATO got a major boost when the Turkish parliament finally ratified its membership application this week. Yet with the Turkish president's signature still needed, Sweden's wait to join the military alliance may not be over.
After ten long months, the Turkish parliament on Tuesday evening overwhelmingly voted to approve Sweden's Nato membership.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been holding up the ratification with a long list of demands from his allies, and the vote came after intensive diplomatic lobbying led by Washington.
At the heart of the delay was Ankara's demand that the US Congress approve the sale of American F-16 fighter jets to replace Turkey's ageing airforce.
"Neither the United States nor Turkey trust each other on any level," said Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst with Washington-based think tank the Brookings Institution.
"There is also no trust here in Washington vis-a-vis the actions of the Turkish government," she continued. "They don't want to find themselves in a situation where they deliver on their end and the other side doesn't."
Mutual mistrustThat distrust was exacerbated by the apparent lack of personal chemistry between Erdogan and US President Joe Biden, who in the past has described the Turkish leader as a bully.
But the impasse was broken by a rare phone call between the two leaders last month. Biden reportedly convinced Erdogan that he could only persuade Congress to allow the jet sale to Turkey if the Turkish parliament ratified Sweden's NATO membership – a deal that goes back to last year, according to Sinan Ulgen of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank.
"There is an agreement that was essentially struck during the last NATO summit in Vilnius whereby the US side would essentially start the formal notification of the F-16 package once the Turkish parliament ratifies the accession of Sweden to NATO," Ulgen said.
But behind Turkey's lengthy delay lies scepticism in Ankara whether Biden can deliver Congress.
Lame duck?Hostility towards Erdogan over his authoritarianism and threats to neighbours, including Greece, is a rare issue that bridges the deep divide between US Democrats and Republicans.
Erdogan's strong backing of Hamas, which he calls a "liberation movement", has only added to that hostility.
Meanwhile, Biden is increasingly seen as a lame-duck president as 2024 elections approach.
"Now [Donald] Trump is marching on the way to triumph once more, maybe, probably. Biden cannot be exerting pressure over the Senate and House of Representatives for the sake of Turkey," predicts Sezin Oney, a commentator with Turkish news portal Duvar.
Oney points out Biden's failure to get Congress to sign off on funding for Ukraine can only add to Ankara's unease.
"I mean, he couldn't do it in the case of Ukraine; he's struggling with that. So how can he do it on behalf of Turkey, which doesn't deliver anything and, on top of it, supports Hamas?" she questioned.
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From Turkey to HungarySuch concerns could yet further delay Sweden's membership.
While the Turkish parliament ratified NATO's expansion, Erdogan has to sign off on the legislation and send the document to the US State Department as per the military alliance's rules.
But political momentum is behind the deal.
"Congressional approvals really rely on key party spokespeople on the committees," said analyst Aydintasbas. "There is still overwhelming approval for the deal – enough numbers to make it past foreign relations committees in both houses, because it is so important for transatlantic unity, not because the US Congress approves of Turkey's foreign policy direction."
But even if the hurdle of Turkey is finally overcome, Hungary is yet to ratify – and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, after 20 months, is now demanding unspecified concessions from Sweden.
With Erdogan a close ally of Orban, NATO may yet need Turkey's assistance in finally bringing Sweden into the fold.
Turkey is joining forces with Bulgaria and Romania to clear mines from the Black Sea, which have posed a danger to cargo ships since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine. But Ankara, the gatekeeper to the crucial waterway, insists that it won't allow any other Nato countries to send warships to assist.
In a ceremony in Istanbul earlier this month, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania signed an agreement to clear mines that the war in Ukraine has left in the Black Sea.
"With the start of the war, the threat of floating mines in the Black Sea has arisen," said Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler, announcing that Ankara had formed a mine task force with its Bulgarian and Romanian allies.
Guler said the tripartite agreement was the fruit of months of diplomacy.
With several cargo ships already hit by mines, they are an increasing menace to one of the world's most important waterways for exporting grain and energy.
"These sea mines are floating on the water. They are not stationary, and there is no telling when or where they might strike a vessel," explains Tayfun Ozberk, a former Turkish naval officer and now a defence analyst.
"This is a serious problem in terms of navigational safety, because the merchant ships can't detect these mines as they are semi-submerged in the water," he says.
"And when they do detect them, it might be too late for them to save themselves."
Black Sea grain dealAnalysts say removing the threat of mines will significantly boost Ukraine's efforts to export grain to world markets after the collapse of a deal with Russia brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.
"Mine clearing is very supportive of maritime safety and navigation. I hope it is very beneficial for the Ukraine side in order to export their grain," says Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University and adviser to the Turkish president.
Moscow is widely seen as threatening Ukrainian exports, saying it can't guarantee the safety of ships carrying them.
But Ankara hopes increasing security for Ukrainian vessels could provide an impetus for Moscow to return to the grain deal with Ukraine.
Casin believes mine clearing could push Moscow to rethink its stance. "Perhaps Russia may come again to the table," he suggests.
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Turkey as gatekeeperThree mine-hunting ships from each of the coastal countries and one command ship will be assigned to the new task force, according to the Turkish defence ministry.
While the Turkish navy has modern mine-clearing capabilities, which Romania and Bulgaria will support, experts say the challenge facing the Nato allies is considerable.
"The locations and numbers of the sea mines are unknown, and you have to detect them first; you have to seek and destroy, and this will take time," warns naval analyst Ozberk.
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With the Black Sea a key trade route, the United Kingdom also offered Ukraine two mine-clearing ships – but Ankara denied them permission to transit its waters.
"There is some pressure by the Nato allies, such as the UK, to assist Ukraine militarily. But in accordance with the Montreux Convention, Turkey did not give permission," explains presidential adviser Casin.
Turkey has controlled access to the Black Sea since 1936 under the international convention and has been blocking entry to all warships since the start of the war in Ukraine. Casin says that stance won't change, given its importance in containing the conflict.
"If you give this permission to British or American allies, then Russia will compete, saying, 'I am part of the Montreux regime, I will send new battleships'," he argues. "And this is the beginning of warfare in the Black Sea between Nato and Russian ships."
While Turkey is a member of Nato, analysts say it is seeking to perform a balancing act between the two sides in the Ukrainian war in a bid to contain the conflict. Removing the danger of mines is seen as a small step towards that goal, albeit a vital one for world trade.
Turkish security forces this month detained dozens of people across the country accused of spying for Israel. The highly publicised raids are seen as a warning to Israel not to target Palestinians on Turkish soil, after Ankara insisted it would itself reign in anyone suspected of involvement in the 7 October Hamas attacks.
At the beginning of January, homes across Turkey were raided in a major operation against alleged spy rings working for Israel's Mossad intelligence service.
A Turkish court formally charged 15 people with espionage offences, while eight others were deported.
In an address to Turkey's MIT intelligence agency, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan boasted: "Our intelligence service, which unearthed the spy network for Israel in our country, has given the best response to those threatening us."
He also warned Israel of more to come.
"This has surprised Israel. But wait ... this is only the first step. You will get to know Turkey. You don't yet, but you will have to," Erdogan said.
The arrests follow the Turkish president's warning of "serious consequences" if Israel sought to hunt down members of Hamas on Turkish territory.
"It's very clear from the threats of Israelis that Turkey [has been] selected as a venue for attacks on Hamas," according to Murat Aslan, a senior security analyst for the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, an Ankara-based think tank.
"In this case, Turkish intelligence at the very first instance – and by the words of the president – warned Israeli intelligence in Ankara that there must be no action," Aslan said.
"But right after this warning – a political warning – [Turkey's] intelligence organisation identified activated cells of Mossad in Turkey."
Israel eyes Turkey as Hamas havenIsrael has not commented on the arrests, but Israeli military leaders and government ministers are vowing to track down those involved in Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel.
"We are inflicting severe damage on Hamas, damaging the leadership of Hamas, targeting the commanders, targeting the terrorists, destroying Hamas' infrastructure in Gaza," claimed Israel's army chief Herzi Halevi.
"We are also constantly ready for other areas. We know how to reach Hamas anywhere in the Middle East," he said.
Erdogan frequently organises rallies in support of Hamas, which he calls a "liberation movement".
According to Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Turkey is viewed as a likely location for Israel's hunt for those involved in the October attacks.
"When we see the massacres of 7 October, how they occurred and how well they were planned, obviously there was a lot of assistance from the outside ... A lot of things were coming from outside of Gaza into Gaza," Lindenstrauss argued.
"Some of this obviously came through Turkey – not by the Turkish government, but by Turkish security authorities not paying enough attention what was happening.
"Turkey is not happy when foreign countries try to undermine these [militant] activities in ways that might harm its sovereignty. But as long as Turkey allows all this activity on its soil, there are ramifications," she said.
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Turkey determined to avoid spilloverIt's not the first time Turkey's MIT intelligence agency has clashed with Israel's Mossad.
But these two formidable intelligence services have also worked together in recent years.
"We definitely did see good cooperation between Mossad and MIT," said Lindenstrauss. "And there was the foiling of a supposedly imminent attack against Israelis on Turkish soil in 2022. So these organisations are also known to cooperate. I think they have great respect for each other."
Last month, Turkish authorities arrested alleged Islamic State members accused of planning attacks on synagogues.
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As the war in Gaza continues, Ankara is determined to prevent the conflict from coming to Turkey.
"Any attack on any other third nationality in Turkey has a bad connotation ... [it] is a negative development for Turkey, because of tourism and business links," explained analyst Aslan.
"Turkey does not want to be a playground for intelligence organisations. So that's why I think Turkish intelligence increased its activity to identify exactly who is involved in what."
Turkey has witnessed terror attacks and assassinations in the past, dealing a heavy blow to tourism and the broader economy.
Ankara's determination not to let the Middle East war spill over onto the streets of Turkey means more crackdowns on foreign intelligence service operations are likely.
The assault of a referee at a Turkish professional football match has drawn international condemnation and the unprecedented suspension of all league games. But it's also brought into focus the wider spectre of violence against public officials in Turkish society, which some blame on the polarising politics of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
After a week-long suspension, Turkish football supporters returned to the stadiums a few days ago.
Play had been suspended for a week after a referee was punched and then kicked on the ground by senior club officials of a major league team.
Halil Umut Meler, who often referees international games, was hospitalised in the incident, which drew worldwide condemnation.
But the assault also brought into focus the growing violence faced by many public professionals in Turkey.
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In a video circulating on social media, doctors ask why they are the target of assaults, a problem medical professionals say is increasingly urgent.
The Turkish Physicians' Association claims there has been a 600 percent rise in violent attacks over the past decade.
Healthcare staff have been protesting for more than a year over rising casualties within their profession and what they claim is government indifference.
"Lots of doctors are dying. Also, lots of nurses are dying in our country," said Berkay Unlu, a doctor at a state hospital in Izmir.
"No one cares about that," he said, exasperated. "It's so important; we are doctors, we are just working for our public."
Political gulfAccording to unions, schools are also witnessing a similar surge in violence against staff.
Some analysts say it's symptomatic of a growing gulf in Turkish society, fuelled by years of populist politics driven by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK Party, whose voting base is poor and religiously conservative.
Erdogan often accuses the elite of undermining his rule – most recently, academics drew his fire.
"What Erdogan and the AK Party are propagating is that they're representing the real people. So they're coming from the grassroots, and they're representing the true native culture of Turkey," explains Sezin Oney , a commentator for the PolitikYol news portal.
"Then you have the opposition, who are the traitors, the elite, the people who are to be castigated – and this polarisation always works because that gives the idea that they are the majority," she says.
"And you have a minority which can be just bashed, stepped upon."
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ScapegoatsErdogan's government rejects such claims, insisting it has introduced increased legal protection for doctors and other professionals.
But critics say such measures aren't being enforced.
With the country facing growing economic woes that are impacting services, professionals claim they are becoming the scapegoats for growing public anger.
"They don't see the real reasons for their problems and target the health professionals instead of the system, so violence escalated," warns Doctor Sebnem Korur Fincanci, chair of the Turkish Medical Association and a renowned human rights activist, who has herself faced legal woes under Erdogan.
"The frustration, unfortunately, was just reflected towards health professionals instead of the government."
Brain drainThe growing violence is leading to an exodus of professionals from Turkey.
"I think it's a big problem because it's first leading to brain drain – these are highly educated individuals who have a certain expertise and a certain profession that they can practice elsewhere," says analyst Oney.
- 'Lost hope': Inflation, abuse force doctors to quit Turkey
"When you have a deficit of health workers, doctors and teachers, there is deterioration in the health system. There is deterioration in the education system," she says, warning that Turkey is facing a vicious circle.
"This is, of course, causing social crisis after social crisis. It's going to be a much unhappier, much more discontented society. And this leads to more violence."
The beating of Meler, one of Turkey's highest-profile referees, has become a symbol of the dangers faced by many professionals who serve the public – and the wider risks of the deepening polarisation in Turkish society.
Swedish hopes of early Nato membership are fading as Turkey continues to hold up Sweden's bid as part of a standoff with the United States.
In July, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared he had secured Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's support for Sweden's membership bid at the Nato summit in Vilnius and that ratification would follow shortly.
But hopes of Sweden joining the military alliance by the end of this year have turned to dust, with ratification still not even on the Turkish parliament's agenda.
Whether Turkey signs off on Sweden's membership depends on Erdogan's relationship with US President Joseph Biden.
"In July, at the Nato summit in Vilnius, President Biden and Erdogan agreed to reset their relations – a sequence of events, a deal and a handshake that would start with Turkey ratifying Sweden's EU accession in the parliament," explains Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
For Ankara, the sale of American F-16 fighter jets to Turkey is at the centre of the rapprochement with Washington.
The deal has been held up over ongoing US-Turkish tensions. Washington says it has green-lit the sale, but the purchase also needs to be ratified by Congress. Continuing lack of trust between the Nato allies has led to the ongoing impasse.
"It's become like a chicken-and-egg story about who should act first," suggests Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund.
"Now the United States is concerned that they could actually give the F-16s, and Turkey can still not ratify. And Ankara is concerned that Turkey could drop its only remaining card, and the United States may still not respond," says Unluhisarcikli. "That's the problem."
Sticking pointsErdogan said this month that Turkey will only ratify Sweden's bid if Congress votes to sanction the F-16 sale, calling for the votes to be held simultaneously.
However, there is strong bipartisan opposition to the arms sales in Congress over Erdogan's aggressive stance towards neighbour Greece.
Erdogan has reached out to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, holding a summit this month in Athens at which both leaders pledged to improve relations. Ankara is banking on rapprochement with Greece quelling opposition in Congress.
But as one diplomatic fire was put out, another erupted. Erdogan's backing for Hamas after its attacks on Israel appears to have scuppered any hopes of a breakthrough in Congress.
- Turkey under fire after declaring Hamas a 'liberation' group
Trump card?But the impasse may suit Erdogan's agenda. Given the importance of securing Sweden's Nato membership to Washington and its European allies, the need for Turkey's green light gives Erdogan powerful leverage.
"I think one of the reasons why that ratification has not happened is because Erdogan and the Turkish government want to maximise the return on that card because this is something that you can only play once," says Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank.
"What sort of leverage this card is going to give to Ankara is not a simple question to answer," says Ulgen. "It may be that, for instance, that Ankara believes that the fact that it still holds the card protects it against some of the harsh rhetoric that Turkey's partners in the West may have on Turkey's policy towards Hamas – the pressure that these governments may want to bring on Ankara regarding the current rhetoric on Hamas.
"So indeed, that may be the reason Turkey is holding on to that card."
- Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies
With Congress yet to schedule a vote on sanctioning the military sale to Turkey and the Turkish parliament yet to put ratification of Sweden's Nato membership on its agenda, there is no end in sight to the impasse.
Analyst Aydintasbas suggests Ankara could be already eyeing American presidential elections next year and looking to the return of Donald Trump, with whom Erdogan had good relations.
"It was Erdogan who started trying to see if he could [drag out Swedish ratification] if he could get more. Maybe on some level, they're also thinking the Trump administration could come to power," she said.
Turkey's decades-long bid to join the European Union will be back on the agenda as EU leaders meet at a summit later this month. They are also expected to focus on Ukrainian membership as part of an eastward drive.
"It's going to be an historic summit in itself for the EU, where decisions on possible openings towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia as well are going to be decided," Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam think tank told RFI.
But such a significant and expensive eastward drive raises questions over Turkey, whose application to join the European bloc is at a standstill amid concerns over democratic governance and human rights.
"The EU leaders will also need to answer the question about what they are willing to do with Turkey. How willing are they to engage with Turkey when they are making this historic opening towards potential new members in the east?" Ulgen asked.
- Brussels recommends opening EU membership talks with Ukraine
'Democratic backsliding'Turkey's bid to join the EU has remained in the deep freeze over Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule.
Strengthened by a new electoral mandate in May, Erdogan is continuing his crackdown on dissent and tightening his grip on power.
However, the Turkish leader is expected to bring with him a list of demands when he attends the EU summit, including visa liberalisation and calls for a new trade deal.
European leaders may be looking for compromise rather than confrontation, given that Erdogan is set to remain in power for the foreseeable future.
“Especially after the elections in Turkey, the EU is looking for new ways of having a more constructive and less acrimonious relationship with Turkey," predicts Berktay Mandirci, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
The modernisation of the customs union, for example is in the interest of both the EU and Turkey, he says.
But Mandirci warns that the realities of Turkey can't be ignored: "The human rights situation in Turkey and the democratic backsliding in Turkey always come up in discussions within the EU."
- Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up
Strategic locationThere are significant obstacles to Erdogan's EU demands – such as the reticence of European far-right parties, most recently in the Netherlands, who are deeply opposed to visa liberalisation with Turkey.
Meanwhile, a new customs trade deal with the EU has a human rights requirement.
But Erdogan retains powerful leverage given Turkey's strategic location, bordering the Middle East and sharing the Black Sea with Ukraine and Russia, which means the EU can ill afford to alienate Ankara.
"The repercussions will be more in terms of the opportunity lost," says Ulgen.
"It might have turned into a closer diplomatic partnership to address some of the regional crises. It might also mean working together for the construction and reconstruction of Ukraine.
"But all of these opportunities will be lost if this estrangement between Turkey and the EU continues."
- Can Turkey tip the balance of power in the Caucasus conflict?
Difficult discussionErdogan is expected to remind EU leaders of Turkey's role as gatekeeper to migrants seeking to enter Europe. At the same time, Ankara has yet to agree to allow Sweden to join Nato.
For the European Union, the seemingly endless conundrum about what to do with Turkey will be the elephant in the room at the Brussels summit.
"There is no realistic perspective for EU membership in light of the democratic backsliding and all the developments that have been taking place in the country in the last few years," says Ioannis Grigoriadis at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.
Grigoriadis believes that reassessing the future of Ankara's bid is long overdue, especially as the EU considers a new wave of accession, but warns such a conversation is likely to be uncomfortable, if it goes ahead at all.
Like in previous EU summits, the expectation is that contentious issues to do with Turkey will be postponed in the hope that future commitments to Ankara will be enough to avoid a confrontation with Erdogan and keep Turkey on side – or, in other words, the can will be kicked down the road again.
Civil society groups in Turkey say their future hangs in the balance as more and more international donors pull out or cut back their support. Overseas funding is drying up as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan steps up his crackdown against critical voices.
Buoyed by his re-election in May, Erdogan is continuing to make life difficult for elements of Turkey's civil society that he accuses of threatening democracy.
Now organisations like Spod, an LGBTQ+ advocacy group in Istanbul, are also facing a financial battle for survival. Since the elections, fewer of the group's applications for international funding are being accepted, claims Spod's general coordinator Ogulcan Yediveren.
"It is the data, it's not an evaluation," he says. "It is almost impossible to continue do all these activities based on volunteering. So this funding is important for organisations to survive."
Yediveren warns the shortfall in funding will inevitably impact the group's activities, which include providing telephone helplines and legal and psychological support for LGBTQ+ people.
International funding is Spod's only source of income, he explains. "We don't have any other financial resource. So as long as we receive these international funds, we can continue our activities."
Shifting prioritiesThe crackdown is adding to international donors' concerns over how effective Turkish civil society organisations really are.
"I heard and I was told that donors do not see the output, the impact of such things – the outcome, effectively, for the money that they invest in Turkey," says Sinan Gokcen, head of the Turkish branch of the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders group.
"They are thinking: 'Well, we've been supporting civil society organisations for several years but we don't see any change.'"
Gokcen believes there has been a decline in international funding as a result.
"This has been intensified, especially after the election period," he says. "And finally, for some big donors, the war in Ukraine took their money – they prioritised supporting civil society organisations within Ukraine."
The earthquakes in southern Turkey in February also saw donors switch support away from civil society organisations and towards humanitarian relief.
- Far from Turkey's earthquake zone, volunteers seek ways to help
ExodusThe list of major donors withdrawing their support continues to grow.
Open Society Foundations, founded by Hungarian-American philanthropist George Soros, was once a significant supporter of Turkey's civil society – until it pulled out in 2018, blaming government pressure.
"Open Society is no longer funding in Turkey – I think it was around 2 million dollars for civil society and an extra 2 million funding for refugee organisations," says Ekrem Murat Celikkan, co-director of Hafiza Merkezi, an association working to support human rights and justice.
"The Chrest Foundation from the US also stopped funding because it was targeted by the pro-government press severely," he adds, recounting that both the family that runs the foundation and the groups they supported were subjected to hostile coverage.
The Chrest Foundation confirmed in an email it was ending its financial support of civil society in Turkey, citing unspecified reasons. But the foundation said some groups may be eligible for support in the future.
Philanthropist jailedDomestic financial support is also drying up after Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala was given a life sentence for seeking to overthrow the government.
Kavala was imprisoned for supposedly backing the 2013 Gezi Park protests against Erdogan's rule – a decision condemned by both Washington and the European Court of Human Rights.
But Erdogan robustly defends the verdict.
"There is a person who financed the terrorists in the Gezi events. Now he is behind bars," Erdogan bellowed in a 2018 speech, referring to Kavala without naming him.
"And who is behind him? The famous Hungarian Jew Soros. This person sends people across the world to divide and tear up nations and uses the large amount of money he possesses to this effect."
Soros's Open Society Foundations denied any link to the protests, and pulled out of Turkey days after Erdogan's speech.
No more space to shrinkErdogan routinely accuses civil society groups of conspiring against him with international donors.
The president is continuing to introduce new controls, while prominent members of civil society have found themselves arrested and prosecuted.
- Leading Turkish doctor convicted over call for chemical weapons inquiry
“We shrank and shrank and there's no space to shrink anymore. So this is the end of the story," warns Gokcen of Civil Rights Defenders. "We are squeezed in a very narrow field in terms of civil society activism and organisations."
For Yediveren, who continues to send applications for international funding for Spod amid renewed attacks on Turkey's LBGTQ+ communities, the future is bleak.
"If these civil society organisations collapse, there will be no independent support mechanism to empower ourselves," he warns.
"Probably we will find new ways to come together, and somehow we will create a safe space for ourselves, but probably we will not be as visible as now. And visibility is very important, because this polarisation also feeds homophobia."
The Iranian president's visit to Turkey this week comes amid deeply strained bilateral tensions as a result of regional rivalries. However, Israel's assault on Gaza stands to alleviate those problems as Tehran and Ankara find common ground in condemning Israel, with Turkey also seeking to position itself as a mediator in the conflict.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's withering verbal attacks on Israel have put him on the same page as his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi, who is due to visit Turkey on Tuesday.
But Ankara is also concerned about contagion as the Gaza war draws in countries such as Iran and threatens to destabilise the region.
'Demoinising' Iran"Turkey does not approve of demonising Iran. It can still have a dialog, and Turkey has the capacity to cooperate with Iran," says Bilgehan Alagoz, of the Centre for Iranian Studies, a Turkish thinktank.
Alagoz suggests Erdogan is well placed in his talks with Raisi to keep Iran out of the war: "Turkey also has a dialog with Israel. While there are problems with Israel, we still can talk with Israel and with others, including the United States and European countries."
- Turkey, Iran put rivalries aside as Gaza conflict provides common ground
Keeping Iran and its proxies out of the conflict is a priority for Israel and Turkey's Western allies.
Iran has a major role in arming Hamas, says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
"It is difficult for Israel to concentrate on the Gaza front because the northern front in Israel, the front with Lebanon, is very also very tense," Lindenstrauss says, adding that, "of course, the northern front is all orchestrated by Iran".
Raisi in TurkeyErdogan's talks with Raisi aren't expected to be confined to the war in Gaza. Until the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October, Turkish-Iranian tensions had been rising amid growing regional rivalry, in particular in the Caucasus.
Tehran is alarmed at the military successes of Azerbaijan's forces against ethnic Armenians in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
Iran is a strong ally of Armenia and sees Azerbaijan as an increasing threat to its regional influence. However, much to Iran's annoyance, Turkey strongly backs Azerbaijan with a military alliance.
"The recent rhetoric adopted by Iran towards Turkey has created some sensitivity, especially regarding the South Caucasus," says Alagoz.
"Since the beginning of Azerbaijan's liberation activities for the occupied territory in the South Caucasus, Iran has started to adopt anti-Turkey rhetoric."
- France announces sale of defensive weapons to Armenia as Turkey plays wargames with Azerbaijan
Battle of influenceAnalysts also suggest that Tehran is worried Ankara is seeking to limit Iran's influence across the region. These fears have been stoked by deepening cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel.
Turkey's expanding its influence into central Asia is adding to Iran's concerns.
"Turkey's connection to central Asia is still a very serious problem because it's going to increase Turkey's influence here in the region, which Iran is not happy with," says Ilhan Uzgel, a political analyst with the Turkish news portal Kisa Dalga.
Tehran's advancing nuclear energy programme is also fuelling bilateral tensions. Turkey is worried that Iran is moving closer to developing a nuclear bomb and triggering a regional nuclear arms race.
But at least for now, the Middle East war and fears that it will spread are bringing the two countries closer.
With Israeli forces stepping up their assault on the Gaza Strip and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continuing to ramp up his rhetoric against the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Ankara is nonetheless resisting calls to cut off vital oil deliveries to Israel.
Supertankers continue to deliver oil to Israel from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Oil pipelines from Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan terminate at the Mediterranean harbour, making Turkey a key oil supplier for Israel.
"The bulk of Israeli oil needs come from either Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan," says analyst Mehmet Ogutcu of the London Energy Club.
"I think the latest figures show Azerbaijan provides around 40 percent of Israel's oil needs. It comes all the way to Ceyhan, and from Ceyhan, it's sent to an Israeli port where it's moved to one of the refineries," Ogutcu explains.
But with the death toll mounting from Israel's invasion of Gaza, calls for Turkey to cut off oil deliveries are growing.
Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, speaking with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara earlier this month, urged countries delivering oil to Israel to cut their supplies, a call Fidan ignored.
- Turkey, Iran put rivalries aside as Gaza conflict provides common ground
Despite Erdogan ramping up his rhetoric against Israel, oil deliveries from Turkey to Israel continue to flow. And questions remain about how effective any embargo by Turkey would be.
"I don't think that Israel will suffer in any way because oil is plentiful in the world markets," points out Ogutcu. Even if Turkey were to cut off Israel's supply, "they can bring it from Brazil or Canada or from some of the African countries where they have good relations", he says.
"Israeli consumption, if I'm not mistaken, is around 225,000 barrels per day. That's not a significant amount. It can be easily secured either through long-term contracts or on the spot market," he adds.
Talking toughBut Turkey has other ways of harming Israel if it wants to strike a blow.
"Turkey could stop the working of the Kurecik radar station in Malatya in Turkey, which is crucial to the Nato missile defense system, and as far we know, it also protects the airspace of Israel," says Ilhan Uzgel, an international relations expert and columnist for Turkey's Kisa Dalga news portal.
So far Erdogan has not taken any of these options. "What he has to do is please his audience, so he makes tough statements," says Uzel. "It's not hurting anybody; in the end, it's just words."
- Turkey under fire after declaring Hamas a 'liberation' group
Erdogan is continuing with his rhetoric against Israel, even describing Hamas as a liberation movement while personally attacking Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But the Turkish leader's actions remain more measured.
Announcing the recall of Turkey's ambassador from Israel for consultations this month, Erdogan stressed that diplomatic relations with Israel would remain open and that Turkish efforts were continuing to seek the release of hostages held by Hamas.
"The rhetoric is harsh, but the concrete actions are not that harsh, at least in terms of the bilateral relationship," observes Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London.
"I think the idea is that if you burn bridges, you will not be able to play the diplomatic role as much as you hope to."
Attempts at diplomacyOn Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Ankara for the first time since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. In a tacit acknowledgment of Turkey's efforts, Blinken said third-party countries were playing a role in securing the release of the hostages.
Erdogan is expected to join Arab leaders for a summit in Riyadh to discuss the crisis. But Dalay warns there may be limits to Ankara's nuanced approach toward Israel.
- Links to Hamas complicate Turkey's rapprochement with Israel
"If Turkey is convinced that actually the diplomatic track is not working and if other regional countries, not only Turkey, reach the same conclusion that Israel is not paying any attention to this diplomatic track or call for a ceasefire, then we might see – both at a regional level and a Turkey level – countries taking punitive action," Dalay warns.
With Erdogan's large religious base at the forefront of growing protests against Israel, that will likely add pressure on the Turkish leader to take a harder stance if the violence continues.
Iran's Foreign Minister visited the Turkish capital this week amid growing regional rivalry as Ankara seeks to expand its influence from the Caucasus to Central Asia. But the conflict in the Middle East is, for now, providing some common ground.
At a press conference in Ankara on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, jointly condemned Israel for its ongoing assault on Gaza. They also called for a regional conference to end the fighting.
The Israel-Hamas conflict provides a shared interest as Ankara increasingly challenges Iran's regional influence.
"Turkey is trying to connect itself with Central Asia ... it's not a secret. So there is a simmering tension between Turkey and Iran," explains Ilhan Uzgel, an international relations analyst for the Kisa Dalga news portal.
"It's kind of postponed because the attention moved to the Middle East again. But we are going to see it more and more in the years ahead."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is working to strengthen relations with energy-rich Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
On Friday, he visited the Kazakh capital, Astana, meeting with Central Asian leaders at a Turkic nations summit.
The visit follows French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Astana on Wednesday as competition heats up for influence and lucrative contracts.
The Turkish leader also recently mended ties with Saudi Arabia, which is Iran's arch rival.
- France's Macron visits Uzbekistan to expand EU footprint in Central Asia
The Azerbaijan situationAll moves will likely stoke Iranian fears of being encircled by Turkey. Still, it's Turkey's deepening military ties with Azerbaijan – which has close relations with Israel – that is causing the biggest concern.
"In Azerbaijan ... Israel has a very strong influence now in Baku," says Mehmet Ogutcu of the London Energy Club.
"They [Israel] think that this is part of the Israeli containment strategy, which is not wrong. And therefore, I think Turkey and Iran are not on good terms."
In September, Azerbaijan – backed militarily by Turkey – ousted ethnic Armenians from the contested Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Tehran strongly supports Yerevan, but ahead of Baku's attack, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan warned Iran to stay out of any conflict.
- France announces sale of defensive weapons to Armenia as Turkey plays wargames with Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan's victory is widely seen not only as a loss for Yerevan but also for Tehran, weakening its influence while boosting Israel's foothold in the region.
"Israelis have been cooperating with Azerbaijan to do lots of things in Iran, which has made Tehran furious," explains Soli Ozel of Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
Ozel warns that Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's victory is also stoking Iranian fears about its Azerbaijani minority.
"Iran does have a significant Azeri population ... I am sure they do have nationalist tendencies, and Aliyev today appears as a hero because the Azeris for once won the war," Ozel said.
"I think the Iranians are concerned that the appeal of what Azerbaijani nationalists call northern Azerbaijan may be increasing for their own population, who are unhappy living under their Islamic republic, probably for economic and social reasons."
Common ground ... For nowDuring last year's nationwide Iranian protests, Aliyev – in a televised address – vowed to protect Azeris both in Azerbaijan and Iran.
Azerbaijan and Iran have recently held military exercises close to their shared border.
Two years ago, Ankara signed an alliance with Baku, committing it to defending Azerbaijan in the event of war.
Pointing to a map of the Caucasus, Mesut Casin, a presidential advisor at Istanbul's Yeditepe University declared: "Iran fought with the Turks more than 16 times."
"The Iranians, if challenged or use force against Azerbaijan, Turkey is ready to support Azerbaijan against Iran. This is absolutely 100 percent determination of Turkey," Casin told RFI.
But Ankara and Tehran have found common ground in uniting to oppose Israel's Gaza assault. For now.
With the Caucasus remaining tense and Erdogan continuing his bid to court Central Asian leaders with his latest visit to Kazakhstan, observers predict bilateral tensions will likely escalate as Iran and Turkey compete for regional influence.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on a collision course with its Western and Middle Eastern allies after vigorously defending Hamas, declaring it to be a "liberation movement" rather than a terrorist organisation. The statement also appears to have ended more than a year of rapprochement efforts with Israel.
To the rapturous applause of his parliamentary deputies, Erdogan delivered an impassioned defence of Hamas despite the group killing more than 1,400 Israelis earlier this month.
"Hamas Is not a terrorist organisation but a liberation group, a group of Mujahideen that is fighting to protect its soil and its citizens," bellowed Erdogan to a standing ovation from his deputies.
Erdogan went on to accuse Israel of suffering from "mental illness" for its ongoing bombardment of Gaza, which has claimed over 7,000 lives, accusing the West of ignoring human rights in Gaza because its "Muslim blood being spilled".
Erdogan's use of the Islamic phrase "mujahideen," meaning spiritual resistance, is seen as unprecedented by a country's leader, says Ilam Uzgel, an analyst for the Turkish news portal Kisa Dalga.
"To praise Hamas to define Hamas as a mujahideen, whereas all over the world, even those who support the Palestinians in the West and the Western societies, they put a distance against Hamas and they are critical of Hamas, and they dislike Hamas," Uzgel says.
Strong tiesErdogan, who is religiously conservative, has always maintained good ties with Hamas.
In July, he met with the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. But in the initial phases of Israel's Gaza assault, Erdogan held back from his usual fiery rhetoric against Israel despite growing condemnation by many opposition parties.
Erdogan initially wanted to play a mediating role in the conflict, but the Turkish president's shift in rhetoric came with the realisation his overtures were being spurned.
"We've noticed that Secretary (of State) Tony Blinken is not passing by Turkey, going to Turkey, or really having an intense conversation with his Turkish counterpart," says Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
"Even though Turkey is clearly a country that has a very close relationship with Hamas leadership and can play a role in terms of releasing of hostages. President Erdogan does not like to be ignored."
Support rallyWith Erdogan's overtures to mediate in the conflict ignored, no regional foreign minister has visited since the outbreak of the conflict, the Turkish leader is now seen to be seeking to reap gains domestically.
Erdogan has a significant religious political base. The Turkish leader has called for a mass rally in support of Gaza for Saturday, 28 October, where he is expected to ramp up his rhetoric in support of Hamas. But Erdogan may be making a severe miscalculation.
"I'm not sure if it may please the Turkish audience," warns UzgeI. "I think it was a mistake, a political mistake, that it would not bring Erdogan any votes, any sympathy, domestically or externally in the region and in Erdogan ties with the United States and Israel in the future.
- Israeli PM eyes visit to Turkey as rapprochement efforts continue
"Hamas is not liked in the Middle East either. And the Saudis don't like it, the Egyptians don't like it, so there are no regimes that like Hamas except Iran and Qatar. So probably he will pay a price for this.
A recent Turkish opinion poll found the majority of Turks want the country to remain neutral in the conflict. Turkey is grappling with soaring inflation and a cost of living crisis.
Erdogan has been looking to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for financial support. That financial support could dry up if Riyadh and UAE become uneasy over Erdogan's pro-Hamas stance.
End to rapprochement?At the same time, Turkey's rapprochement with Israel appears over, with Israel strongly condemning Erdogan's Hamas stance.
While Israeli-Turkish relations have a long history of managing highs and lows, this latest crisis could be different.
"Well, we know Israel and Turkey have managed in the past to overcome such low points in their relations," says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
"And we have had basically continuous relations since 1949, when Turkey recognised the state of Israel.
"Since this is the second normalisation attempt that basically lasted less than a year or two, I think it will have a long-term effect. And next time around, when one of the parties will want to repair relations, thaere will be very strong criticism, saying we've tried this route, it doesn't work."
For now, Turkey's Western allies have largely ignored Erdogan's outbursts.
Israel has confined itself to a brief statement of condemnation, as international efforts appear to try and contain the deepening crisis in Gaza, with the hope Erdogan confines himself to just angry rhetoric.
Recent tensions in relations between Ankara and Moscow had stoked hopes among Turkey's Western allies of a rupture in the close relationship. But a summit on Monday between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may have dashed those hopes, as they committed themselves to deepening their cooperation.
Meeting at Russia's Black Sea resort Sochi on Monday, Erdogan failed in his bid to persuade Vladimir Putin to return to the 2022 UN-brokered Ukraine grain export deal as the Russian leader reiterated his stance that key sanctions against Moscow need to be lifted for any resumption of Ukrainian exports.
Putin's rebuttal is a blow to Erdogan, given he was a key architect of the deal along with the United Nations Secretary general Antonio Guterres.
But Erdogan's close relationship with Putin was seen to have cooled of late after he angered Moscow with his support for Ukraine's NATO membership bid.
Bilateral cooperation securedBut the Turkish leader didn't leave the summit empty-handed, with the two leaders committing themselves to wide-ranging cooperation from tourism to energy to foreign aid.
The bilateral deals will dash the hopes of Turkey's Western allies of a rupture in the Erdogan-Putin relationship.
"The Sochi meeting definitely demonstrated that the interaction grew between two sides between Russia and Turkey, and both sides are in certain way indispensable for each other," according to Russia expert Zaur Gasimov at Bonn University in Germany.
"They continue to cooperate. They continue to interact. And a number of chapters in that book of cooperation between Moscow and Ankara grew tremendously since the last two or three years, and the Sochi meeting demonstrated that very clearly," Gasimov added.
At the Sochi meeting, Putin said a deal between Russia, Turkey, and Qatar to supply a million tonnes of grain to six African countries was close to fruition – on Wednesday, Moscow confirmed Turkey's participation in the accord.
- Turkey may be key to salvaging Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports
Fears of sanction 'loophole'Under the agreement, Turkey would process the grain into flour, with Putin adding that Turkey would also receive grain for its own market. Experts warn, however, that Russia could use the deal to export stolen Ukrainian grain, breaching international sanctions, putting the spotlight on Ankara's stance of not enforcing Western sanctions against Russia – to which, Turkey says, it is not bound.
"Turkey is very important [to Russia]," said George Voloshin for ACAMS, a financial crime watchdog.
"There are many intermediaries in Turkey that help Russian interests, that help Russia procure goods from the West, including basic goods, as well as very sensitive goods.
"So it's really up to Turkey's government to make sure there's no re-exportation of European, American or UK goods into Russia. And I think there's a lot to do in this respect," added Voloshin.
Since the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia, imports to Turkey from European countries have surged with a corresponding increase in exports from Turkey to Russia, fuelling suspicions companies in Europe are using Turkey to circumvent the sanctions.
- Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy
Trade and infrastructure investmentsMeanwhile, Putin and Erdogan committed themselves to increasing bilateral trade from $70billion to $100billion, including turning Turkey into a regional hub for distributing Russian gas.
The leader's discussions also included Russian companies starting construction of a second nuclear reactor in Turkey. Boosting trade and infrastructure investments are seen as vital for the ailing Turkish economy.
Experts claim the Sochi summit characterized by smiling and relaxed leaders and a commitment to deepen cooperation underlines that despite recent strains between Ankara and Moscow, Erdogan is too important for Putin to lose.
"Putin cannot face losing Erdogan," says Columnist Ilhan Uzgel for the Kisa Dalga, a Turkish news portal. "So they [Moscow] tolerate anything Turkey is doing inside NATO membership. I mean, that is for sure.
"They don't care about what Erdogan is doing in his ties with Western countries and Western institutions," continued Uzgel. "They are more interested in what kind of cooperation they can have with Erdogan, and they cooperate in many, many areas."
At least for now, some analysts say hopes of a diplomatic rupture between Ankara and Moscow are on hold, with Putin focusing more on areas of cooperation than points of difference.
Historic rivals Greece and Turkey look closer to a rapprochement as their leaders step up efforts to improve ties after receiving strong election mandates this year. Foreign ministers from the two neighbours are set to meet on Monday, but analysts warn substantial obstacles still need to be overcome.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's landslide victory in June elections is seen as allowing him to pursue his long-term goal of rapprochement with Turkey.
"I wouldn't call it his secret agenda, but he did want that – the amelioration of relations – and that is something that goes back since the beginning of this century when I first met him," claims Alexis Heraclides, a professor of international relations at Panteion University in Athens.
Leaders of the two countries met on the sidelines of the Nato summit in Vilnius in July, pledging to work towards improving ties. This Monday the Greek foreign minister, Giorgos Gerapetritis, is scheduled to travel to Turkey to meet his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in the latest effort at rapprochement.
Mitsotakis appointed Gerapetritis after his election victory, replacing Nikos Dendias, a hawk in Turkish-Greek relations, notes Heraclides.
"The fact that [Mitsotakis] was able to get this victory sort of unties his hands," he said. "Previously he had little leeway, since his foreign minister [Dendias], his head of the army and others are very much hardliners.
"So this is an almost golden opportunity to do his thing, to take matters into his hands."
Change of toneAfter his re-election in May, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also replaced his foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu. Newly appointed Hakan Fidan is widely regarded as a skilled diplomat.
With elections behind him the Turkish president can tone down his nationalist rhetoric, which is popular with his electoral base, and be more receptive to Greek overtures, says Huseyin Bagci, head of the Foreign Policy Institute, an Ankara-based research organisation.
"The new government, of course, will be much more cooperative," Bagci predicts. "I think the non-solvable issues will continue, but the rhetoric will be much more [toned] down.
"I do expect that both sides will try to find common ground... Both leaders seem to be trying to work together. And this is time for cooperation, not confrontation," he added.
Maritime flashpointsThe Aegean and Mediterranean Seas remain flashpoints for the Greek and Turkish navies as both countries search for what are believed to be significant energy reserves in disputed waters.
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At the same time, the island of Cyprus, divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities, continues to be a potential source of tension.
But analysts say improving bilateral ties could help Turkey achieve one of its military goals: buying American-made jets.
Turkey is seeking to acquire F-16 fighter jets from the United States. Last year the Greek prime minister urged the US Congress to block the sale, and the deal has been delayed in part over Washington's concerns about tensions between the two Nato allies.
'Honeymoon period'But given the history of failed attempts, observers question how long the latest efforts to improve ties will last.
"You see these wonderful pictures coming out, everyone smiling in nice photo ops," observes Mediterranean security analyst Aya Burweila.
"I think in three months, six months, we'll see if people are going to go back to their baseline," she said.
"It's like in a horrible marriage – there's a little honeymoon period, and then everybody goes back to who they really are."
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But there remain hopeful signs. Greek and Turkish leaders refrained from angry rhetoric despite the recent flare-up of tensions in Cyprus over the construction of a road in contested territory, as well as the announcement that Turkey plans to drill for new energy sources in the Mediterranean.
Mitsotakis and Erdogan are expected to meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in October, with a summit between the two leaders in Greece on the cards later this year.
Turkey's largest city faces one of its worst droughts with record high temperatures, blamed on climate change. With many of the city's water reservoirs nearly empty, experts warn Istanbul could face water shortages in just weeks if rain doesn't come.
Grass now grows in many reservoirs that were once filled with water in Istanbul. A dry winter followed by a summer with record-high temperatures have nearly emptied many of the city's dams.
The city authorities regularly update the falling dam levels and warn of the need for conservation.
As a result, the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI) on Wednesday announced emergency efforts and longterm plans to deal with the growing water crisis the city is facing.
"The biggest threat to the world is the climate crisis," declared Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu, speaking at a conference this week.
"The struggle against the climate crisis will grow. In this respect, we should be able to look at this fundamental issue of the world in the name of humanity and recognise that this is beyond an individual state issue, and we should be prepared," the mayor added.
Be preparedWater is now being pumped nearly from the Melen River, 200 kilometres away, to meet the needs of Istanbul's 16 million inhabitants. The city's unique geography is complicating those efforts. The Bosphorus waterway divides Istanbul between Europe and Asia, making it increasingly tricky to juggle water supplies across two continents.
"We've got an integrated water management and are doing the most optimisation studies," explains Tugba Olmez-Hanci, head of Strategy Development Istanbul's Water and Sewerage Administration.
"In the Asian part, the population is 35 percent, while in the European part of Istanbul, the population is 65 percent. Water sources are higher in the Asian part and are lower by approximately 30 percent in the European part," Hanci explains.
Water authorities have produced videos calling on consumers to reduce their consumption while high users receive text messages warning of their consumption. Special valves are offered to reduce water pressure.
Waiting for rainBut with record temperatures increasing evaporation from the remaining water in Istanbul's dams, Dursun Yildiz, head of Turkey's Hydropolitics Association, warns time could be running out for the city if rain doesn't come soon.
If there isn't sufficient precipitation in the coming months, the city's administration will have to put special measures in place, he says.
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"All these things depend on weather conditions in September and October. Waters users and water administrators need to change their attitude to use water as efficiently as possible," added Yildiz.
"I cannot say it's not a problem," said Hanci of Istanbul's Water and Sewerage Administration, "We are trying to do our best until the rains come."
Rain cannot come soon enough for Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu, whose reelection next year may depend on how he manages the delicate issue of water cuts. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already declared he's determined that his party will regain control of Turkey's largest city.
The restoration of full diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt raises hope that cooperation can replace rivalry between these two regional powers.
Turkey and Egypt have both been involved in civil wars in Ethiopia and Libya, each backing a different side.
Analysts hope the restoration of full diplomatic ties between Cairo and Ankara in early July will help ease tensions across Africa and the Middle East.
"It could affect Egypt, at least the issue they have in Ethiopia, because both countries support different sides of the conflict," predicts security analyst Aya Burweila.
"So, in general, I think this is good. I think it's helpful for Libya as well because both sides support different factions in Libya," adds Burweila, who specialises in Libya.
"And I think this stalemate has gone on for such a long time. It is about time existing powers figure out something that everyone can agree on," she concluded.
Libya crisisIn 2020, Turkey's military intervention in support of Libya's Government of National Accord against the Egyptian-backed forces of General Khalifa Hafta brought Turkey and Egypt to the brink of a direct confrontation.
"When you are looking at the tense times, Turkey and Egyptian armies almost came face to face here," recounts Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin.
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Casin, an international security expert at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, says economic cooperation offers a way forward out of the current tensions in Libya.
"Turkey and Egypt, first of all, may bring energy security and energy trade. Secondly, if they come together in Libya, it should be beneficial to both Turkey and Libya," he said.
But Turkey's military presence and the deployment of Syrian mercenaries in Libya are potential obstacles to a Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement.
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Egypt "wants to see the withdrawal of [Turkish] troops in Libya, the withdrawal of Syrian mercenaries in Libya. Egypt has a red line in Libya," warns analyst Burweila.
"They're very wary of foreign bases and its neighbouring country, and definitely foreign troops that are associated with Islamist extremism. So they want to see concrete actions from Turkey before they move forward. Having said that, I think the first step to any concrete action is diplomatic relations," she added.
Energy resourcesLibya's vast energy wealth offers a powerful impetus for cooperation, suggests Jalel Harchaoui at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London.
Harchaoui points out that a deal is waiting to be made, with Turkey backing the regime controlling western Libya and Egypt supporting forces in the east of the country.
"Egyptian workers could have an easier time finding their traditional historical jobs in the western, most populated half of Libya. And if in exchange, they facilitate the economic penetration of Turkey in the east, then it would be better for everybody from an economic perspective," he explained.
The future of Libya is predicted to top the agenda when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visits Ankara for talks with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is expected to happen in the coming weeks.
The state visit is seen as symbolically marking a return to normal relations.
Regional axisIn turn that brings the hope that cooperation can replace rivalry between the two countries, especially when it comes to regional issues.
"It's going to be about taking care of Libya," said Harchaoui, "and avoiding situations worsening in secondary theatres like Tunisia, or if Chad gets into trouble because the Sudan war fragments it."
He added: "You would be able to just assume that Turkey and Egypt are roughly on the same side. Same thing with Sudan; you don't have the knee-jerk reaction of always being against the other."
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Money also could have a crucial role in keeping the Turkey-Egypt rapprochement on track.
Erdogan's recent visit to the Arab Gulf States saw him sign tens of billions of dollars in contracts with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, both allies of Egypt. The funds are vital to keeping Turkey's floundering economy afloat.
Analysts say such deals will also help ensure the future of Turkey and Egypt's new detente and with it, the removal of a destabilising force in the regions.
Russia's decision to walk out on a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to allow Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea has prompted fears of soaring prices and global famine. Turkey, the gatekeeper to the waterway, has a key role to play in finding a solution.
The Turkish-flagged TQ Samsun was the last ship to carry grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port under the deal that guaranteed safe passage to cargo ships leaving the war zone, after Moscow withdrew from the agreement earlier this week.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for grain exports to continue through the Black Sea.
Such a move would likely need support from the Turkish navy, which is second only to Russia in the Black Sea.
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"I've been a proponent of this [Turkish naval support] from the very beginning," declares Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"There are some difficulties. The first one will be the insurance question. But we already hear from the Ukrainian government that it set aside a serious amount of money, like half a billion euros, to provide possible insurance."
Isik also warned: "I think that Russia could do things that irritate Turkey, possibly in Syria and other places."
Russian escalationMoscow warns that cargo ships attempting to carry Ukrainian grain will be considered hostile because they could potentially bear arms for Kyiv.
After withdrawing from the grain deal, Russian forces have already started pounding Ukrainian ports.
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But it is not clear whether Moscow is ready for a confrontation with Turkey if it deploys its naval forces to protect ships carrying Ukrainian grain.
"They will try to create a hostile environment, possibly maybe dumping some sea mines," warns analyst Isik.
"But in reality, if Turkey is backing this trade [Ukrainian grain exports], I actually don't expect Russians will have either the ability or the desire to really confront the Turkish navy or the international vessels transiting on the western Black Sea," he added.
But Ankara is wary of the risks involved, given the dangers of a possible confrontation with Russian naval forces.
"The Russian naval fleet is very powerful here, they have a lot of battleships; they have more than ten submarines here," explains Mesut Casin, an international security expert at Istanbul's Yeditepe University and adviser to the Turkish president.
"This could be a big headache for Nato and for Turkey's security, and this will trigger a kind of blowup in Turkey-Russian relations," he said.
Turkey keeps the balanceIf Ankara doesn't offer assistance, other Nato members may want to step in to secure the continuation of Ukrainian grain exports, which experts say is essential to prevent surging food prices and famine in some parts of the world.
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But Turkey is the gatekeeper to the Black Sea under the international Montreux Convention on maritime traffic, and some analysts say it will be very reluctant to allow warships to enter the war zone.
"Those ships would make very easy targets," predicts Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, "and probably, their presence would not decrease but increase the risk of escalation between Nato and Russia."
He adds: "That's the reason why Turkey has suggested to its allies and others that they should reconsider their plans to send in warships into the Black Sea."
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Since the onset of the Ukrainian conflict, Turkey has blocked access to ships from both Russia and Nato countries, other than those that have ports on the Black Sea. The stance is part of what Ankara calls its balanced approach.
"Turkey is very, very careful here not to touch the security interest of Russia as directly as the United States and other European countries do," explains Huseyin Bagci of the Ankara-based Foreign Policy Institute.
"Turkey will have a unique position in this respect. As we say, neither West nor East but the Turkish security interest, which is keeping the balance there," Bagci said.
Go-betweenTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims his close ties with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts helped him broker the UN grain deal. Erdogan says he still believes Turkish diplomacy again can find a solution to avert escalating tensions.
"The Black Sea, even though a closed and small area, is one of the most dangerous areas in the world," warns presidential advisor Casin. "Someone has to open the gate with the Kremlin; this should be Turkey."
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Turkey, as the world's largest flour exporter and among the largest exporters of pasta, stands to lose if Ukrainian grain exports do not resume.
With the Turkish waterways no longer full of ships carrying Ukrainian grain, world food prices are predicted to surge – along with pressure to find a solution.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's U-turn on Sweden's NATO membership bid is fuelling speculation that he may be pivoting back to his traditional Western allies. Until now the Turkish leader has had something of a diplomatic love affair with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, even as the rest of Europe shuns him for his invasion of Ukraine.
All smiles, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg announced at this week's summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, that Erdogan had finally agreed to back Sweden's bid to join the defence alliance. There was handshaking and backslapping, and Erdogan was very much the man of the moment.
US President Joe Biden, who has criticised Erdogan's human rights record in the past, exchanged jokes with the Turkish leader. Biden's commitment to sell US fighter jets to Turkey is believed to have clinched Erdogan's support.
"This is portrayed as a big triumph for Erdogan," observed political analyst Sezin Oney, of Turkish news portal Politikyol. "The people are living through the daily reality of the economic crisis very harshly in Turkey. Now, for the time being, we've stopped talking about this, and it's Erdogan's triumph [instead]. Even part of the opposition is in awe.
"It does not matter if it's really a success; it's changing the agenda. And it's a big win for the West because Russia has had blow after blow in recent weeks," Oney said.
Turkey's opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu slammed the NATO love fest and accused Western leaders of ignoring Erdogan's human rights record in Turkey, where prominent political and civil society leaders are languishing in jail on flimsy charges.
But realpolitik and pragmatism appear to be the order of the day, with hopes growing amongst NATO members that a rift could emerge between Turkey and Russia.
Tit for tatEven before this week's summit, Erdogan gave signals that all was not well in his relations with Moscow.
Last Saturday, Turkey released Ukrainian commanders who'd been held as part of a prisoner swap, which infuriated the Russian government. The soldiers were supposed to stay in Turkey until the war's end as part of a deal brokered by Turkey between Ukraine and Russia.
"Yes, we do have our differences," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov. "We do not hide them, either. But another part of our relations also serves the best interests of our two countries. These relations are important for us and the Turkish side."
- Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies
Moscow has been quick to punish Ankara. Russia vetoed the extension of a United Nations aid deal for Syria. That means more suffering for millions of Syrian dissidents and their families trapped on the Turkish border and adds to the risk they may seek to flee to Turkey.
But Russia expert Zaur Gasimov of Bonn University predicts Moscow will be careful in its response. He says the Kremlin is aware Ankara's actions are more gestures than substantive, albeit a little humiliating – and that, crucially, Turkey continues not to enforce Western sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
"Turkey and Russia have very different positions and very different interests in all regions," observed Gasimov. "But both sides are aware in all these sub-regions that they have to communicate to interact, and that is the extent of the cooperation."
He added: "It's not a mutual interest, but it's the understanding of how essential it is to cooperate and stay in a dialogue with each other."
Playing both sides?Turkey is heavily dependent on Russian trade, especially energy. Putin deferred billions of euros in Turkish energy payments ahead of Erdogan's re-election campaign, which helped to avert a widely predicted currency collapse.
Given these interests, some observers question whether Erdogan has performed any real pivot back to the West.
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"With Erdogan, never say never. Tomorrow he may just revert back to Putin," suggested political analyst Oney.
The Turkish president's strategy is "negotiating with Putin or having good relations in general and using this as leverage with the West, and having good relations with the West from time to time and using it as leverage with Russia", she said.
"I think it will continue. This is the foreign policy of Erdogan," Oney added.
Black Sea grain dealBut Moscow's threat to end a deal brokered by Turkey and the UN to allow the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports is further straining Russian-Turkish ties. Putin is calling for sanctions against Russia to be eased in exchange for renewing the deal.
Given the importance of the grain deal to Ankara, some predict there could be severe repercussions if Moscow vetoes its extension.
"Turkey really wants the grain deal to continue, and the signals coming from Russia are that the grain deal is coming to an end," observed Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the US-based Middle East Institute.
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"So before the Russians take any more action to really end this grain deal, Turkey is sending a signal that there are many things depending on Turkey, including Turkey not joining so far in any sanctions against Russia," Isik said.
For Erdogan, the grain deal has been a diplomatic triumph. If Moscow should end it, this would likely raise more questions over Turkey's balancing act between Russia and the West, and could provide Ankara with further impetus to move back to its Western allies.
With Nato leaders due to gather in Vilnius Tuesday for a two day summit, Sweden's membership bid hangs in the balance. Turkish President Recep Erdogan, outraged by the burning of a Koran outside a Stockholm mosque, is resisting international pressure over his opposition to Sweden's bid. The Turkish leader is emboldened by his May election victory, but Washington may hold the key to resolving the impasse.
Last month's public burning of a Koran by protesters outside a Stockholm mosque is the latest obstacle to Sweden's NATO bid. Erdogan slammed the Koran burning and warned that he would resist pressure over his opposition to Sweden's membership aspiration.
'Provocation and threats'
"I clearly want it to be known that, as Turkey, we will not bow down to the politics of provocation and threats," bellowed Erdogan in a national TV address.
"We will teach the arrogant Western people that it is not freedom of expression to insult the sacred values of Muslims."
Erdogan's May election victory was on a platform of standing up to Turkey's Western allies, likely hardening his negotiating stance with his NATO partners.
"We are likely to see more of the same. President Erdogan, has been emboldened by the vote, having five years of no elections," Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington,said. "Then possibly the price going up in terms of Turkey ratifying Sweden's NATO membership."
Erdogan is calling on Stockholm to ban public displays of support for the Kurdish separatist group the PKK. The group has waged an insurgency against Turkey for four decades and is designated by both the United States and the European Union as a terrorist organization. Ankara also wants Sweden to extradite its members to Turkey. But Stockholm insists they've now met Ankara's security demands.
"Sweden is no safe haven for terrorism. We are no safe haven for PKK," said Sweden's chief negotiator, Oscar Stenstrom.
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Sweden, PKK and NATO
"We have stepped up our cooperation between our police agencies, the police, and the security service, together with the Turkish counterparts to be much more effective," added Stenstrom.
But Erdogan dismissed such claims and demanded a crackdown by Swedish authorities on PKK activities.
On Thursday, a Swedish court found a man guilty of extorting money on behalf of the PKK. At the same time, Swedish and Turkish diplomats met Thursday with NATO representatives to resolve the impasse. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said progress had been made but that there was still no breakthrough.
US solution
Turkey's aging fleet of American-made F16 fighter jets could be key to resolving the impasse. Turkey wants Washington to approve the sale of new F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits.
"At the end of the day, probably, there will be a common understanding that America will provide the F-16 modernization process as well as the new F-16s," Huseyin Bagci, head of the Foreign Policy Institute, an Ankara-based research organization.
"And Turkey, I do not think that Turkey will be willing to stop the NATO's enlargement process," added Bagci. "But at the moment, the more the Swedish membership is postponed, the better for Russia."
President Biden is now voicing support for the Turkish fighter sale. But there could be other obstacles. Erdogan is looking for an invitation to Washington as the price for lifting his veto on Sweden's NATO membership bid, claims International Relations professor Serhat Guvenc at Istanbul Kadir Has University.
"Erdogan has been in power for more than twenty years, and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, either in the US capital or in the Turkish capital. So probably one of the priorities of Erdogan will be to put an end to this isolation or exclusion from Washington, DC," said Guvenc.
Biden is a critic of Erdogan's human rights record. But Ankara's backing of Sweden's NATO bid would also likely open the door to Stockholm's other remaining opponent, Hungary.
"Regarding Turkey, they are also our allies, and therefore we need to hear their voice," said Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, a close ally of Erdogan.
"Perhaps, since we are closer to them than the other NATO members, we are hearing them with a sharper ear," added Orban.
Erdogan likes to broker deals face-to-face with fellow world leaders in the blaze of the world's media. So any breakthrough was seen as unlikely until the Nato leaders gave for the Vilnius summit, with negotiations likely to go down to the wire and Sweden facing a nervous wait.
Turkish authorities have cracked down on Istanbul's Pride parade with dozens of arrests. Once one of the biggest events in the region, Pride is now struggling to survive, with newly re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accusing the LGBTQ+ movement of threatening Turkish society.
For three decades Istanbul Pride Week has been the focal point of the year for Turkey's LGBTQ+ community, attracting tens of thousands of people.
"It's super important because we don't have any other location or place where we can actually talk about these things," says Can Kortun, a member of the Istanbul Pride Committee.
"We don't have any location where we can talk about Muslim feminist LGBTQ+ people. We don't have any place to talk about immigrant LGBTQ+ people. We don't have any place we can talk about our civil rights.
"The other side is being able to show people that we are not a small number of people."
Parade branded 'terror threat'Relations between people of the same sex have been allowed – or at least not criminalised – in Turkey since the establishment of the secular republic in 1923.
But in recent years, the authorities have been cracking down on Pride week.
This year is no different. The centre of Istanbul was locked down after the local governor ruled that a planned parade by LGBTQ+ members was a terror threat.
Despite massive security, participants attempted to go ahead with their Pride march, which resulted in over a hundred arrests and heavily armed riot police chasing people through the streets.
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Last month Erdogan used his victory speech to ramp up his anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric. He accused the community of posing an unacceptable threat to family values.
Oner Ceylan of Lambda, an Istanbul-based LGBTQ+ group, says Erdogan sees their movement as a political threat.
"The political spaces in Turkey have been immensely narrowing more and more. And the only people who can go out on the street and protest are women and they are being severely punished," says Ceylan.
"Because of that, Erdogan has chosen the LGBTQ+ community as a target consciously because I think he believes that it's the movement strong enough to be visible and disturbing to some people who are afraid of liberties in society."
Pride struggling to surviveMany LGBTQ+ organisations that have developed over the past few decades in Turkey are now struggling to survive under increasing legal pressure.
"We have activists who are facing jail time," said Mustafa Sariyilmaz of the Turkish branch of the Sweden-based Civil Rights Defenders group.
"Many of those people who were sued, they have been banned to leave the country, and most of them are like youngsters, university students."
Sariyilmaz says the crackdown is undermining the effectiveness of LGBTQ+ groups.
"They are stuck in a corner. Every single step they want to take and every single thing they want to do is being investigated. So they cannot openly support many people.
"The cases against us are getting bigger and bigger every year, and we don't have enough lawyers to support us."
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Legal and political pressures are widely predicted to increase, and there's an expectation among LGBTQ+ members that things are going to get worse.
But there's also a belief their achievements can't be undone.
"I grew up in the 80s where there was next to nothing about queer issues in the media in the society'" recounts veteran activist Ceylan.
"It was not something that people discussed. It was very difficult for me to find my way around, and it took a long time. Now, thanks to the movements of 30 years ... there's a very different scene.
"No matter how hard Erdogan tries, he cannot squeeze us back in the closet."
The Canary Islands in the Atlantic Ocean receive an exceptional amount of sunshine every year. A tousim hotspot they also have high renewable energy potential. Nevertheless, tthey still depend on fossil fuels for 80% of its electricity. Last December, the regional parliament set an ambitious target of sourcing 92% of its energy from green technology by 2040. However, there are still significant obstacles to overcome. Stefanie Schüler, with the support of the European Union, has this report.
Standing facing the Atlantic Ocean, José Antonio Valbuena describes the ongoing challenges facing the archipelago.
Renewable energy problems
He is the outgoing Canary Islands’ minister for the fight against climate change and ecological transition.
The Spanish Canary Islands, he explains, are a system of eight volcanic islands that make up an archipelago.This means that each island has to resolve its own energy problems by itself as the islands are not interconnected to either the African continent or to the European continent.
"All these factors hinder the development of renewable energy," he said.
There are other problems too. Dimitriu Barreto works for the Technology Institute of Renewable Energy, a research center that specialises in energy transition.
It has three wind farms and the biggest photovoltaic plant on the Canary Islands. However, as an engineer, he regrets that the development of renewable energy is being done without modernising the electricity network.
“Here’s an example," he told RFI."Each week, when the wind is strong and we have surplus energy thanks to our new wind farms, the system operator orders us to reduce our production because this energy cannot be absorbed. In addition, no energy storage system has been put in place. So, this free energy is lost.”
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The Canary Islands advantage
Change is on the way, however. The new energy transition plan for the Canary Islands has accelerated the production of photovoltaic panels, which are being installed on roofs of houses by the hundreds.
The problem at the moment, José Antonio Valbuena says, is that there is no legislative framework to enable the development of renewable energy.
Despite this, he points to the advantages the Canary Islands offer and that European continent doesn’t have.
He told RFI: “The annual per capita energy demand is lower in the Canary Islands than in the rest of the European Union. This is for two reasons: first, we don’t need to heat our houses in the winter or to cool them in the summer, we have a stable climate. And second, our industries are responsible for less than 7% of the energy consumption here. This is an advantage."
Of the eight Canary Islands, Ferro, the westernmost and smallest of the islands, has advanced furthest in energy transition.
Ten years ago, the smallest island focused on a new type of renewable energy model. At the time, it was described as the first island in the world to be fuelled 100% by renewable energy.
One of the developements that enabled this was the construction of a hydro-wind plant at a cost of 83 million euros, part of it financed by the European Union.
This is now starting to bear fruit, according to Renan Andres Morales, an engineer in renewable energies in the Gorona del Viento hydro-wind plant.
"The main benefits [from the plant] is the fuel savings that we achieved for the island...It means a reduction of CO2 emissions. Last year, we used seven thousand tons less fuel, which is the equivalent of 20 thousand tons of CO2."
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The winds of change
But ten years later, the reality is different. It is difficult to know exactly how climate change will impact the winds or the ocean currents among other things.
“The problem is that in recent years we have been noticing that the wind is changing, but our wind plant has been designed in relation to these north-north east winds” explains Renan Andres Morales.
“So, if the winds come from the west or the south, it means that our wind plant is not installed in the right location," he said.
"This is the reason why we have to diversify our renewable energy sources as much as possible until we have a more precise idea of what our meteorological conditions will be like in the future. Now, our main goal is to install a photovoltaic solar power plant.
There are also wave energy converters. But it will be very difficult to achieve 100% renewable energy on the island.”
The problems with this kind of scenario are already apparent. The hydro-wind plant of Gorona del Viento on Ferro Island was closed for ten days in May 2023 because of lack of wind.
“When there is no wind, the sun can take over. When there is no sun, we have the water. But when we don’t have the water, it will become very complicated," Renan Andres Morales adds.
These north-north-east winds, along with the sun, the sea, and the volcanoes, are part of what made the Canary Islands special. With the climate change, they’re now posing the islands’ biggest challenge.
Turkey's re-elected president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is standing by his policy to give shelter to millions of refugees. Bordering Syria and spanning Europe and Asia, Turkey is the world's biggest host of people seeking international asylum – but public unease over the policy could threaten that.
Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey lost their homes, their country, and in some cases, their limbs.
At the Istanbul Orthotic Prosthesis Centre, Syrian refugees patiently wait to be measured and fitted with replacements, including 18-year-old Semir. His parents and four siblings were killed in the civil war; he lost his legs, but now hopes to walk again.
"They helped me a lot with everything; praise be to God, everything will be fine, praise be to God," he said. "We are training a little bit on the new limbs, and with progress, they will change to the new prosthesis and I will start walking step by step."
The Istanbul centre was set up by Turkish charities the Humanitarian Relief Foundation and the Alliance of International Doctors, with financial support from Kuwait. Since its foundation five years ago, it has been working flat out.
Specially trained staff carefully craft each artificial leg and arm. The centre uses state-of-the-art technology, including 3D printers, all under the supervision of Professor Yasar Tatar, who says the brutality of the civil war has brought unique challenges.
"Especially in Syria, there is a high number of amputees, involving multiple limb loss," Tatar explains. "Burns caused by barrel bombs also posed major challenges for us."
He adds: "We have served around 2,050 amputees, and we have made approximately 4,000 prosthetic limbs. This is a huge number. Few centres in the world can make so many prostheses in such a short time."
February's deadly earthquakes near the Turkish-Syrian border added to the centre's work, with many refugees badly injured in the disaster.
'Reclaim our country'Turkey hosts over three million Syrian refugees, along with large numbers of Iraqis and Afghans.
However, anti-refugee sentiment is growing. On a wall near the centre, graffiti has been sprayed: "Reclaim our country from refugees".
- As Afghans flee, Turkey is accused of deporting them without a fair hearing
"There can be societal problems arising from the arrival of a large number of refugees. Turkey's recent economic problems have added to this," warns Mustafa Ozbek, a spokesperson for the Humanitarian Relief Foundation.
"On top of this, the elections saw some politicians especially bring up the issue of refugees, which has added to tensions," Ozbek said.
EU interestsIn May's presidential elections, Erdogan's challengers vowed to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees. According to analysts, his re-election it will be a relief to refugees and the European Union, which pays Turkey to host refugees.
"The Europeans probably were relieved when Erdogan was re-elected because that means the refugee deal, which matters a lot for the EU leaders, will remain intact [and] operational. So they will be continuing to enjoy the benefits of their comfort zone," suggests Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
- Are Syrian refugees going to pay for Europe's disagreements with Turkey?
He argues the refugee deal is key to underpinning Turkey's relations with the EU.
"It will also mean the continuation of transnationalism in Western-Turkish relations in particular. And both sides have learned to deal with each other on a transactional basis," added Guvenc.
Possibly mindful of public unease over refugees, Erdogan has vowed to step up the building of homes in a "safe zone" along Syria's border with Turkey to facilitate the voluntary return of a million Syrians. How many will take that offer remains to be seen.
Turkey's newly reelected president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has performed a rare and dramatic policy reversal. With the country facing a financial crisis, Erdogan has abandoned his controversial economic policies and turned to a market-friendly policymaker to lead the finance ministry.
Erdogan's appointment of former US banker Mehmet Simsek as finance minister is widely seen as heralding an end to the Turkish leader's unorthodox economic policy of cutting interest rates to tame soaring inflation, which is running officially at around 40 percent.
Erdogan, while reiterating his belief in the low interest rate policy, said he was ready to allow Simsek to follow the orthodox economic theory of raising rates.
Analysts describe it as a remarkable pivot.
"It marks a 180 and about-turn in economic policies from Erdogan," said economist Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House and senior strategist at Bluebay Asset Management.
"Remember, he has run unorthodox policies for much of the last decade," Ash recalled.
"Simsek was in the previous Erdogan administration with unorthodox policies and left because he didn't like them. So I think the fact that he has come back suggests that Erdogan has recognized he has to do something differently."
Cost-of-living crisisMany blame Erdogan's low-interest rate policy for fuelling inflation, which remains stubbornly high, especially for food, with traders and buyers hit hard.
"Everyone's purchasing power is decreasing, that is very clear," warned Istanbul food market trader Gurol Simsek.
"Especially on the days when fruits and vegetables are sold in the market, it is very visible how much people's buying capacity has decreased."
The Turkish lira has weakened to record lows after Erdogan's reelection, and Turkey has few foreign currency reserves left to defend it.
But the arrival of some of the world's largest cruise ships in Istanbul is heralding the start of the lucrative tourism season. Tourists from abroad are expected to replenish foreign currency reserves, but time is running out to avert a crisis.
"Turkey is heading very rapidly to a currency crisis or, more formally speaking, balance of payments crisis," said Atilla Yesilada, Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners.
"I personally think Turkey cannot survive this winter without major, substantive and credible economic policy change."
Step towards the West? Returning to the economic orthodoxy of increasing interest rates to rein in inflation is seen as opening the door to more foreign investment, and even moving closer to traditional Western allies.
"A return to orthodox economic policies will emphasise the importance of Western markets, Western lenders, financial institutions, etc," explained Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
"And this will probably have a bearing on the political aspect of foreign policy."
- Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies
However, slaying inflation with high interest rates is a painful process. It risks reducing economic growth and especially hurting Turkey's large construction industry, which depends on cheap money.
Moreover, with the construction industry having close ties to Erdogan, questions remain as to whether the government will continue with an orthodox economic policy.
"The concern is that [if] six months down the line and before local elections that are due early next year, Erdogan may have enough of this tight policy and may actually change, put pressure on Simsek not to do what he needs to do or even fire him, the markets would react very badly," says Ash.
- Turkey's Erdogan faces economic hurdles following election victory
But Turkey will pay a heavy price if it reverts to unorthodox policies, the economist warns.
"Turkey probably would face the most serious crisis in over 20 years. There would be a risk of runs on banks, the collapse of banks, sovereign debt crisis, maxi devaluation, and then a lot of inflation – building on hyperinflation, if he doesn't do something now," Ash says.
Erdogan has already declared his priority is to retake the Istanbul mayorship from the opposition. Politics – as ever – are likely to dictate whether the Turkish government makes difficult economic decisions and sticks with them.
Turkey's newly reelected president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, faces the challenge of balancing ties with Russia and Western allies as he seeks to make the country a major player on the world stage.
With Erdogan taking the presidential oath for a third time, analysts predict foreign policy will be central to his goal of making Turkey a 21st-century power.
"We are also likely to see a continuation of this non-aligned and strategic, autonomous idea of Turkey's place in the world," said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow with the Brookings Institution in Washington.
"President Erdogan sees Turkey as a rising power," Aydintasbas explained. "He's built his campaign on this. The 21st century, he says, will be the century of Turkey, and that Turkey is not a loyal card-carrying member of the transatlantic community."
Standoff over SwedenAnkara's ongoing veto of Sweden's Nato membership bid is increasingly viewed as a critical test of its loyalties.
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg attended Erdogan's swearing-in last weekend, urging Turkey to lift its veto of Sweden's bid to join the transatlantic alliance.
Ankara has accused Stockholm of sheltering members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, which is listed as a terrorist group by Ankara and its Western allies.
- NATO chief calls on Turkey not to veto Sweden's bid to join alliance
Speaking to reporters after meeting with Erdogan, Stoltenberg described talks as "productive", acknowledging security threats posed by Kurdish rebel groups like the PKK to Turkey. "No other ally has faced more terrorist attacks," said the Nato chief.
But Stoltenberg insists Stockholm has addressed Ankara's calls to crack down on terrorist organisations attacking Turkey.
"Sweden has taken significant concrete steps to meet Turkey's concerns," he said.
"This includes amending the Swedish constitution, ending its arms embargo, and stepping up counter-terrorism cooperation, including against the PKK. Important new terrorism legislation has come into force just a few days ago. So Sweden has fulfilled its obligations."
Russian investment, American ambitionsAnkara's ongoing opposition to Sweden's Nato bid comes as Erdogan is pledging to deepen ties with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the first to congratulate Erdogan on his latest electoral success.
"Turkey is having a lot of investments from Russia," pointed out Huseyin Bagci, head of the Foreign Policy Institute, an Ankara-based research organisation.
"In his presidential speech, [Erdogan] was talking about this nuclear plant and also an LNG [liquid natural gas] hub for certain European countries. Turkish-Russian continue to be stronger," Bagci said.
- Turkey and Russia closer than ever despite Western sanctions
Putin gave Erdogan significant financial support during the presidential election, deferring billions of dollars in energy payments to support the beleaguered Turkish economy.
But analysts suggest Erdogan wants to consolidate his electoral success with a reset with Washington. US President Joe Biden has in the past criticised Erdogan, even calling him an autocrat.
"Erdogan got what he wanted or what he needed before the elections from Russia. He got a deferment of payments for natural gas," stressed international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Kadir Has University.
"Now, probably, his expectations are more centred in the West than in Russia. There is this expectation that now that Erdogan was elected, that is proof of his democratic credentials," said Guvenc.
"So based on this perceived renewal of democratic credentials, probably Erdogan and his associates will seek a reinvigoration of the relations between the two countries on the basis of a better reception of Erdogan in Washington, probably an official visit – this is what they are expecting."
Lack of chemistryImproving Turkish-US relations is widely expected to help ease financial pressures facing the economy. But the poor chemistry between the country's two leaders remains an obstacle.
"Turkey's a challenge for Washington, and it will continue to be a challenge. The relationship is less than ideal. In fact, it's pretty dysfunctional," warns analyst Aydintasbas.
- World leaders congratulate Turkey's Erdogan on reelection
"It starts at the top with President Erdogan and President Biden hardly talking or hardly ever meeting. Even though they've met on the sidelines of major international summits, I think that the lines of communication between the two are just very poor," she added.
That relationship could ultimately be tested over Ankara's stance on Nato enlargement and growing Western calls to impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, something Erdogan has so far refused.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was sworn in for a fifth term on Saturday after winning re-election last weekend. But he will have little time to rest with the threat of a financial crisis and a tricky balancing act between Russia and Turkey's traditional Western allies.
Erdogan's victory, widely considered his toughest, came despite an ailing economy and criticism over the handling of devastating earthquakes.
On the streets of Istanbul, his presidential runoff victory over challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu came as little surprise.
"It is the normal result, a good result. This was what we hoped for," says Istanbul resident Mehmet, who wanted to be identified only by his first name.
"The first round had already determined the result. By the second round, we knew the outcome beforehand. It's going to be good for our country."
But with Turkey facing soaring inflation and a weakening currency, for others, the result is fueling fear over what comes next.
"The problems are so big, whether it's the economy or other things," says fruit street trader Askin, who also wanted to be identified by his first name.
"Let me tell you, this is not something that will be fixed in just two days. It will not be solved easily. Part of the problem is the people themselves. They only think about their own interests."
Impressive winWith Turkey grappling with inflation of more than 40 percent as well as widespread condemnation over the handling of February's earthquakes, Erdogan's election victory is widely considered his most impressive.
But the quake-struck region gave Erdogan some of his strongest support, with backers celebrating his victory deep into the night.
A remarkable result, says Can Selcuki, the head of Istanbul Economics Research, an opinion poll company. This is especially given Kilicdaroglu's more generous campaign promises over rehousing quake victims.
"Erdogan said that they would rebuild and sell the houses. Kilicdaroglu said they would rebuild and give them away for free. And looking at the results, people believe Erdogan more than Kilicdaroglu, so I would say it's a widespread notion," said Selcuki.
- Turkey's LGBTQ community dread future under Erdogan
Upon news of his victory, Erdogan sang to his supporters, vowing he would be with them until the grave. Some observers say that given Erdogan has never been more powerful, he could already be planning to abolish presidential term limits as part of constitutional reform plans.
"Secure and stronger certainly for another five years," predicted Huseyin Bagci, the head of the Foreign Policy Institute, an Ankara-based research organisation.
"Even I expect that he [Erdogan] will try to extend this presidential period, like Putin, like Xi Jinping, and maybe forever," added Bagci.
"He has the parliamentary majority. I do think that they will do this, a constitutional change that he can apply for another term."
Challenges aheadBut Erdogan faces formidable challenges. The Turkish leader is vowing to continue his unorthodox economic policies, which are widely blamed for soaring inflation and a weakening currency.
"I think there is now a consensus among secularist or respectable economists that Turkey is heading very rapidly to currency crises," Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners says, warning of financial turmoil.
"I personally think Turkey cannot survive this winter without major, substantive and credible economic policy change."
To avert such a crisis, Erdogan is predicted to turn to Mehmet Simsek to lead his financial team. Simsek is a former minister who once worked for the international finance company Merrill Lynch.
However, analysts warn it remains to be seen whether Simsek will have the independence to return to economic orthodoxy and anathema to Erdogan.
- World leaders congratulate Turkey's Erdogan on re-election triumph
Any hopes that Erdogan is ready to perform another political somersault in foreign policy is less likely, warns analysts Bagci. Instead, he says Erdogan will continue to balance his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's traditional Western allies.
"They are good friends. It is true Turkish-Russian relations for the next five years will continue to be stronger. In his presidential speech, he was talking about this," Bagci said.
"But Putin is definitely very happy that he has his friend as president again for another five years. And so it will be much easier to work with [Putin] than Tayyip Erdogan working together with the European Union and the United States of America."
Putin was among the first to congratulate Erdogan on his latest victory, praising what he called his "independent foreign policy".
However, that policy will likely be tested on whether Erdogan will bow to Washington and other NATO members and lift Turkey's veto of Sweden's bid to join the military alliance when NATO leaders meet next month.
- Turkey threatens to dash Swedish, Finnish hopes of quick NATO entry
Incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the frontrunner as Turkey prepares for its first ever presidential runoff vote this weekend. But analysts say challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu has an outside chance, if he can galvanise his base. The first round saw Erdogan secure a majority in parliament and narrowly miss an outright win in the presidential race.Analysts say the political momentum has shifted away from Kilicdaroglu ahead of Sunday's runoff."Erdogan obviously enjoys not only the 49.5 percent [of the vote] that he got in the first round, but also the parliamentary majority," explains Can Selcuki, head of opinion pollsters Istanbul Economics Research."So these are very big motivational factors going into the second round, which renders him the likely winner."Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, is trying to motivate his supporters and increase mobilisation, but at the same time mitigate concerns over his nationalistic security policies," added Selcuki.Nationalist turnBoth presidential candidates are targeting nationalist voters after a surprisingly strong showing by hardline nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan in the first round.Kilicdaroglu hopes to capitalise on nationalist sentiments and, since the first round, has stressed his commitment to deport millions of Syrian refugees. Nationalist kingmaker endorses Erdogan for 28 May runoff"Kilicdaroglu probably is interested in getting some of those Sinan Ogan supporters, supporters of the third-party candidate who are driven by TikTok or social media – and nationalism, of course. So he's lurching a little more in that direction," said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution in Washington. But such a move carries risks, given that until now, Kilicdaroglu's focus was democratic reform."The problem is these things are very dangerous, especially if you do these rapid adjustments and changes at the last minute," warns Aydintasbas.Kurdish questionKilicdaroglu is also now taking a hard line on security, vowing never to negotiate with Kurdish separatists.But such a move threatens to alienate key Kurdish voters, who Kilicdaroglu needs to win the presidency.Sezin Oney, a political scientist who writes for the Politikyol news portal, says Kilicdaroglu is performing a tricky political balancing act."Now the bar is much, much higher. He has to first convince, first of all, his own voters to go and vote for him... And he has to convince others."Also, he has to convince Sinan Ogan, the nationalist voter side, and he has to keep the Kurds on his side. So this is a very delicate balance. It's not impossible, but it's much, much more difficult than the first round," said Oney.Kilicdaroglu got a campaign boost when the pro-Kurdish HDP party on Thursday renewed its support for his presidential bid, even despite his overtures towards hardline Turkish nationalists who oppose more rights for minority Kurds.Parliamentary advantageBut another challenge facing Kilicdaroglu is that the coalition led by Erdogan's AKP Party is set to secure an absolute majority in parliament, giving Erdogan a strategic advance."The government side obviously is advocating for consistency, whereas the opposition is advocating for balance," suggests pollster Selcuki."In the past, we've seen that the Turkish electorate usually chooses consistency over the notion of balance." Erdogan takes the advantage into Turkey's presidential runoff pollWith Erdogan voters turning out in larger numbers than Kilicdaroglu's in their respective strongholds, Kilicdaroglu's chances now depend on how many of the incumbent president's opponents he can turn out, predicts Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners."The proximity of another Erdogan victory and what might happen to their future and to their children's future may force them to dispel their doubts and complaints about Kilicdaroglu and show up to the polls. That's the only thing that can change the facts on the ground," says Yesilada.Kilicdaroglu sought to gain political traction earlier this week by appearing on a popular YouTube show for four hours, taking audience questions. The show drew more than 20 million views.With momentum appearing to be with Erdogan in this final leg of the race, analysts say Kilicdaroglu needs to find more ways to reenergise his supporters at the crucial last minute.
Turkey faces a presidential run-off poll on 28 May after an inconclusive vote on 14 May. The political momentum seems to be with the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who narrowly failed to secure an absolute majority. Erdogan is also expected to win a majority in the parliamentary election, the official results of which will be announced on Monday.Presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu, widely tipped as the front-runner in many opinion polls, lagged four percentage points behind Erdogan, despite soaring inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, coupled with accusations of a botched response to the earthquake in February. Istanbul's Uskudar district, once a traditional Erdogan stronghold, is witnessing growing electoral opposition.It is a place Kilicdaroglu targeted with his broad electoral coalition. There is a mixed reaction to the first-round vote."There is this Tayyip Erdogan mentality, you see. It's always been believed he will save this country. He will save this homeland," said Uskudar resident Merve, who only wanted to be identified by her first name. Volunteer army of election monitors prepare to protect Turkey's vote"That logic is always there," she added, "I want to break that mentality a little bit. We should open our minds. Change is good. But people believe without him, there will be no roads, no bridges, and the citizens will be hungry."She added: "You know, he still understands the Turkish people, he still understands the differences, he still understands the state of poverty and the poor. No matter what, he is the one who still reaches out a hand to me today."'Nothing has changed'Uskudar residents fish for food or maybe some extra cash in Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway, which dissects the city.Ismail, one of those residents, is still coming to terms with the presidential vote. "We didn't expect it, and frankly, we were very hopeful that there would be a change, but again nothing has changed. So, we are shocked. I don't want to believe in the result," said Ismail.His friend, Cem, says he isn't surprised, but worries about the prospect of a second round of voting in a presidential run-off. "There wasn't much that surprised me – the strong one won again. I mean, the big fish swallowed the small fish again. It's as simple as that," said Cem."Round two is something we don't like, but people are ready. They will be ready again. In the second round, the chances are 50-50 again; nothing has changed, so we will wait and see."Following the parliamentary elections. Erdogan's coalition is expected to secure a a comfotable majority, which should lend Erdogan the advantage for the 28 May run-off."Erdogan can now campaign saying that I'm the candidate who guarantees stability and also security because we have the parliamentary advantage," explained Sezin Oney, an analyst for the PolitikYol news portal. "One of the undecided voters who never would vote for Erdogan told me that I would be voting for Erdogan this time just because of parliament," she added."You would want the president and the parliament to align in the same direction. So that, of course, would be something detrimental for the opposition and positive for Erdogan."Kilicdaroglu's campaignKilicdaroglu's campaign is pivoting toward courting Turkish nationalist voters in a bid to secure supporters of the presidential candidate Sinan Ogan who dropped out of the vote after coming third.Kilicdaroglu is doubling down on his vow to return millions of Syrian refugees as well as promising to protect the motherland – a reference to security and the country's war against Kurdish separatists. This is a risky strategy given the challenger's dependence on Kurdish minority votes."This is a very delicate balance. It's not impossible, but it's much, much more difficult than the first vote," said Oney.But with the political momentum now with Erdogan, caution doesn't appear to be an option for Kilicdaroglu.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is predicted to face his toughest re-election challenge yet as voters head to the polls today. Amid growing concerns over voter security, opposition and non-governmental organisations are stepping up efforts to ensure a fair poll. It's busy in the Istanbul office of the non-partisan election monitoring group Turkiye Gonulluleri."Now, in 81 cities, we are organizing the system in each voting area," explains Ayce Yucel, one of the group's coordinators."We have a Turkiye Gonulluleri person in each school. We need at least 200,000 people. At the moment, we haven't reached that point yet." Yucel confidently predicts they will achieve their monitor target by election day.The group trains monitors through telephone support, online videos, Zoom and face-to-face meetings. The monitors learn how to collect voting numbers at polling stations and to collate those figures to check the official results are accurate.Like many of the volunteers, Damla, who only wanted to be identified by her first name, is a student and is determined that every vote should count. "As a young person, I cannot live the way I want, I cannot live the way I desire, and that is why I want to protect my vote and ballot box as a duty here because there are many security gaps," she said. Nationwide operationOpinion polls indicate an increasingly tight presidential and parliamentary election.The government says all steps have been taken to ensure a fair vote, with videos from the state election board promising every ballot will count.Despite this, monitoring groups say there are still concerns about voter security.In response, Turkiye Gonulluleri has recruited a team of lawyers who will also help monitor the vote.Volunteers are also being sent to Turkey's earthquake-struck Hatay region."Those who remained here have concerns, saying, 'I wonder if our votes will be stolen. I wonder if there will be someone who will protect our votes'," explains Tamer Baglan, Turkiye Gonulluleri's provincial coordinator for Hatay."As volunteers, we are doing whatever we can to ensure that the election is held in a fair way. We currently have nearly 1,000 volunteers here. We've allocated them to voting stations," he added.Mass arrestsBut alarm bells are ringing in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish region in the south-east, where the state has a powerful presence after decades of fighting with separatists.At a press conference last Thursday in Diyarbakir, Turkey's largest Kurdish-majority city, human rights groups condemned the arrests under anti-terror laws of over 200 people, including lawyers, journalists and members of civil society. "When we look at the investigation files, we see that journalists are being investigated for their journalistic activities, lawyers for their professional activities, civil society organisations for their democratic actions and activities," declared Abdullah Zeytun, head of the Diyarbakir branch of the Human Rights Association."The timing of the arrests is meaningful because all these people are actively involved in observing the election process – [they are] people who'll identify and prevent voting violations that might occur during this process or will report on these violations," he said. Rights groups accuse Erdogan of trying to silence independent media As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social mediaThe government dismisses such concerns, insisting the judiciary is independent.But Sorgul Aytek Avsar, the parliamentary candidate in Diyarbakir for the main pro-Kurdish Green Left Party, says that the arrests are fueling fears for election night."Pressure has increased so much that people don't care about fear anymore; as they say, the knife is to the bone," she said. "People came together in a few hours after the arrests, thousands of them came together and protested. They showed that they would not accept it."I think this showed that people strengthened their resolve for the election. I think it showed that people are really ready to protect their ballot boxes."Memories of 2019 voteElection monitor groups working with political parties played a crucial role in helping to ensure that votes were fairly counted in a hotly contested Istanbul mayoral election in 2019.That poll resulted in Erdogan's party losing its decades-long domination of the city. Istanbul's mayorial elections mean more than just running the cityAyce Yucel was part of those monitoring efforts and said that the memory of that success motivates her for the forthcoming polls."Instead of thinking everything is going to be bad, you have to go to your school or wherever you are voting and follow what people are doing. That's the main idea, actually," Yucel said.As parties step up their campaigns, some observers say the role of election monitors could prove pivotal to the outcome of Sunday's polls.
A political taboo has been broken in the prelude to the May presidential elections in Turkey. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's chief rival, has spoken out about being an Alevi – a member of a progressive Islamic sect targeted by centuries of discrimination and violence. The move is regarded as a significant and potentially dangerous political gamble. On YouTube, Kilicdaroglu, addressing first-time voters, declared his Alevi religious identity and that society should treat all beliefs equally. Such admissions are rare in Turkish politics, as Alevism, a sect of Islam, has suffered centuries of prejudice and discrimination by the Sunni Muslim majority."Alevis in society, ethnically and religiously, have been suffering since the 16th century in this country," Istar Gozaydin, an expert on religion and politics, told RFI."It's a different interpretation of Islam than the Sunni understanding," Gozaydin adds.Victims of violence"The rituals are different. The interpretation is different. The philosophy is different. So the hard-core Sunni ones do perceive it as a heretical interpretation. In society, they have always been a target."Alevism is a mystical belief that combines religions, cultures, or ideas. It is rooted in Islam, Sufism, and some traditions of Shamanism. How 'Turkish Gandhi' Kilicdaroglu could influence May's electionsAlevis pray in cemevis rather than mosques, worshiping through dance. Unlike most interpretations of Islam, there is no separation of men and women in prayer, and women are not obliged to wear religious headscarves.However the Alevis have been repeatedly victims of sectarian violence. In 1993 in the Turkish city of Sivas, a religious mob chanting: 'Kill the non-believers' burned down a hotel hosting an Alevi cultural festival, killing 37.Selami Saritas, head of Istanbul's Kartal Cemevi, was attacked last year by a sectarian mob but he welcomes Kilicdaroglu's move.Relief"This video has brought a lot of relief to our society," Saritas explains."At least now, it has come to the point people can talk more openly about their Alevi identity."We want our children to live in this country in safety. We want our children to live in this country as equals, as equals in terms of work, as equals in terms of education, as equals in every sense," added Saritas. Debate on religious headscarves returns to the heart of Turkish politicsAlevi worshippers echo such sentiments. "There is a state that has been ignoring Alevis for years," said Elvan Ozdemir."Kemal Kilicdaroglu has not expressed that he is an Alevi for years. But I think this is a very good revelation, a very good declaration."It was very good for our country, for our people, and for Alevis. The government has been racist, sectarian, and disregarding us for years," she concluded.CriticsNot everyone is so enthusiastic. Videos have appeared on social media attacking Kilcardoglu, accusing him of seeking to divide the nation and saying that there is only one interpretation of Islam. Such accusations are common, along with threats.As a result, armed security around Kilicdaroglu has been stepped up.Erdogan often makes thinly disguised attacks on Kilicdaroglu's Alevi identity in a move seen as seeking to consolidate his Sunni religious base. Erdogan calls Turkish general election for 14 May, one month earlyUntil now, Kilicdaroglu's religious identity may have deterred potential supporters.However, the fact that he is heading up an electoral alliance of religious and nationalist parties suggests Turkish society is changing."It [Alevi identity] was very important in the country," explained Osman Sert, director of the Panorama TR Research company.Courageous step"But nowadays, if you look at the "Millet Ittifaki" – the opposition's alliance, you know, the Islamists and the nationalists and the secularists and Alevis and the Sunnis are all together."And it means that it is not as important as it was maybe 10 years ago."Kilicdaroglu's video – which has had more than 100 million hits – is widely seen as having an impact."Thinking about the stigmas that the Alevi society has faced up to this time, this is a very, very courageous and very important step," Gozaydin says.As the election draws near, it remains to be seen if Kilicdaroglu's gamble will pay off. Regardless of the outcome on 14 May, observers say he has already changed Turkey's political landscape.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is struggling in many opinion polls ahead of the May elections. Challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu has promised to mend strained ties with Turkey's Western allies, a move which could be bad news for Moscow and might pose a dilemma for the European Union. With Turkey's economy in crisis, Kilicdaroglu is ahead of Erdogan in many polls. Kilicdaroglu has promised economic reform and a diplomatic reset with Turkey's Western allies."Some of the relations, such as with the United States, with Nato, with the EU, are going to come back, predicts political scientist Zeynep Alemdar of Istanbul's Okan University. "Since a Western orientation is no doubt going to be one of the first priorities of a new administration."Erdogan's deepening ties with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, involving energy deals and purchases of Russian weapons, are straining relations with some of Turkey's Western allies.Turkey, a member of Nato, is blocking Sweden's membership bid. However, Zaur Gasimov, a professor of history and expert on Russia at Bonn University, says that Moscow sees Erdogan's foreign policy as an asset."It is not perceived by Moscow as pro-Russian. It's perceived as pro-Turkish and tough pro-Turkish. But it is also not perceived as pro-Western. I guess that is the main aspect that fits into the agenda in Moscow," said Gasimov.Energy, tourism and support in SyriaTurkey depends heavily on Russian energy, tourism, and cooperation in Syria. So untangling ties with Moscow will not be easy."It would be tough to balance relations with Russia," said Alemdar. "No matter what, given the economic interdependency between the two countries."So, one would hope for a renewed and better relationship with the EU in terms of the green transition as well, for example, so that the Russia relations can also be rebalanced again," added Alemdar.Turkey's poor human rights record caused its EU membership bid to be frozen long ago. Relations are now more transactional, for example, Ankara's EU deal to host Syrian migrants in exchange for cash. Turkey lays the ground for a smoothing of relations with SyriaKilicdaroglu vows a new constitution based on rights that will allow Turkey's EU bid to advance. But Alemdar warns such a reset poses the EU a dilemma."I think the relationships with the EU would definitely be much better from Turkey's side. But the ball is in the EU's court because, with the migration deal and its domestic effects in Turkey, I think it would be would be necessary for the EU to devise new ways of interacting with the Turkish government as well," said Alemdar.Some Europeans happy to see Erdogan goGiven that several EU members are opposed to Turkey's bid, some observers suggest that some European figures may welcome a change in Turkish leadership."This Europe is not the Europe of a decade or two decades ago when Erdogan first came to power, and Turkey's accession talks started. Europe no longer wants enlargement, observes Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based think tank, the Brookings Institution "The EU is no longer willing to see Turkey as a member of the club. And as such, Erdogan is a transactional partner, a person they can engage in a given situation, but a person whom they know is never going to be part of the European club works for their long-term interests. Turkey at odds with EU over policing of Libya arms embargo"An opposition victory would smooth out the wrinkles in the relationship, but it would force Europeans to think hard about Turkey and whether or not they see Turkey as part of the club. Neither Washington nor Europe is prepared for a post-Erdogan world," concluded Aydintasbas.Analysts point out that Turkey's Western allies were surprised when Erdogan's AKP Party stormed to power in 2002. A Kilicdaroglu win, they say, could again see diplomats scrambling.
With Turkey amid hotly contested elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing for the first time a powerful independent media. But international rights groups watchdogs accuse Erdogan of seeking to silence critical journalism as he faces his most formidable reelection bid. Dokuz8 Haber broadcasts news programs and produces reports with its nationwide network of reporters. It is one of a growing number of independent media platforms using social media and the web to cover May's presidential elections. Media controlIn previous polls, one of President Erdogan's key advantages was his vice-like grip on media coverage but not anymore."It's a time of change in Turkey, and this is something that is reflected in the media," explains Gokhan Bicici, Dokuz8Haber editor-in-chief."There are new moves a powerful independent media is developing, such as the growth of news channels and the enlargement of their sphere of influence," continues Bicici."I can even say that in terms of the number of viewers on election day, the audience and the followers of independent organizations will be much more than mainstream media. Thus, the effort of the government to establish a monopoly failed; they lost," he concluded. Turkish President asks for forgiveness over earthquake rescue delaysBut the government-controlled media regulatory authority, RTUK, is stepping up its fines on independent media stations- prompting condemnation by twenty international media and freedom of expression watchdogs. "if there is a duty of regulation, this should not be weaponized against a critical TV station before these crucial elections," said Erol Onderoglu, Turkey representative for Paris-based Reporters without Borders. "One of the most important and concerning feet of this problem is the weaponization of high audiovisual border, which is supposed to be independent of any kind of political interference, but which is precisely one of the weapon or crackdown tools under the hand of this government," added Onderoglu. As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social media Partisanship chargesThe government denies the charge of partisanship. But for independent stations like Halk tv, it says fines are a part of doing business but warns the real threat is closure ahead of the May elections."In our broadcasts, they can always find a reason for a penalty, a sentence, an interview, or a statement. And that is why we are always on alert," explains Halk TV News Editor in Chief, Bengu Sap Babaeker. "We are always in expectation. Managers and fellow journalists are responsible for keeping this channel open. We are responsible for preventing a penalty that will close this channel down," she added. A month from Turkey's elections, soaring inflation shakes up political loyaltiesDespite the risk of closure and fines, stations like Halk during February's deadly earthquake exposed government shortcomings, drawing large audiences. Analysts say such coverage has helped build independent media's reputation ahead of elections for fair but critical coverage."We're facing a renaissance of the Turkish media. It became evident in the earthquake period because we would not hear about the incapacity of the government had there not been the new voices of the media. They really did good reporting," observed Sezin Oney, a columnist at the Politikyol news portal. "Good reporting is enough in itself," continued Oney. "It doesn't have to be just voicing the opposition's narrative or giving a voice to opposition politicians. But it's just reflecting what's happening on the ground, and that's really important for the election night as well."New independent media tv channels have been launched in the run-up to the polls, with many reporters who've quit the industry returning to help cover an election that all sides claim is one of the most important in the Turkish republics' history.
Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched his bid for an unprecedented third term as president in May polls, but rocketing inflation is threatening his reelection hopes as he heads into his toughest campaign yet. In Kadikoy, a middle-class district of Istanbul, people patiently queue for a free Iftar meal to mark the end of a day of fasting during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.Many wait more than an hour for a meager meal of a sandwich and soup – including Ahmet, who only wants to be identified by his first name."Why do you think all these people are waiting here just to receive a small food parcel?" he asks."Unfortunately, everything is so expensive. The rents, the economy… the people are finished," Ahmet adds, as he looks at the long line ahead.The opposition-controlled municipal council of Istanbul is providing free food. Similar services are provided nationwide, with most of Turkey's main cities under opposition control.Inflation at 55 percentThe opposition is highlighting Turkey's inflation rate as the country heads to parliamentary and presidential elections on 15 May.It's officially at 55 percent, but believed by many economists to be much higher. And they blame President Erdogan for his unorthodox policy of cutting rather than raising interest rates to control inflation. How 'Turkish Gandhi' Kilicdaroglu could influence May's elections"It's devastating. Poll after poll, we see up to 80 percent of participants complaining about economic conditions," says Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for GlobalSource Partners, quoting the latest opinion polls."At least 80 percent think things have gotten worse over the last 12 months. Sixty percent, on average, think they will even get worse in the next 12 months," he continues."Turkey's going to be shellshocked because prices will have to be increased, millions of households will no longer be able to afford electricity, natural gas, or both."Food costs soarThe authorities are getting nervous about criticism.A graphic designer who produced stickers blaming Erdogan for rising food prices and placed them in supermarkets was detained and charged with insulting the Turkish president. He's now a hero on opposition social media sites.In an Istanbul market, local farmers try to sell their produce. Many complain about the lack of customers and warn they're struggle to survive."Compared to the last year, there is a 100 percent increase in prices, even more, especially in feed prices. The feed prices doubled, and we have big hardships in producing and selling eggs," said Meral, a farmer who only wanted to give her first name."The same is true for our milk production. It is extremely expensive. I have been doing this job for the last ten years. Now we don't earn any money; we are just striving to keep production going. We can't cover all the work we put in," she added.Other farmers say they're in the same boat."The gas prices shot up 100 percent. We rented our field, and the rents went up immensely. The workers' rate used to be 150 Turkish lira, now it has gone up to 400," complained Yusuf Kahveci, a farmer with the company Akasya Agriculture."We can't pass the cost on to the customers because they are not able to afford it. We have regular customers; they used to buy 30 eggs, now they ask for five or six," he said.Unifying issueOne of Erdogan's most significant achievements was years of unprecedented economic growth and with it, the creation of a powerful religious middle-class. This group was always fearful their gains could be lost if Erdogan should lose power to pro-secular parties, analysts say.But soaring inflation could change that political equation, argues Osman Sert, director of PanoramaTR Research."The economic crisis is cutting through all the segments, all the identities, and that's why it is lessening the effect of polarization, because both the conservatives and the secularists and all the others are being affected by inflation and the economic crisis almost equally," said Sert. Debate on religious headscarves returns to the heart of Turkish politicsThe government is now trying to change the agenda.This week Turkey launched its first amphibious assault ship, and Erdogan said the event underlined how he'd turned the country into a regional power. His words were designed to court his nationalist religious voting base.Whether that base remains loyal is likely key to his reelection bid.
The mayor of Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, is warning of a race against time after February's deadly earthquakes highlighted deficiencies in the country's construction industry, with thousands of buildings collapsing. "We don't know when the earthquake will hit," said Ekrem Imamoglu, adding that to let people live in buildings that threaten their lives was "to knowingly let them die".Weeks after February's deadly quakes, buildings continue to collapse. Thousands of apartment buildings have been reduced into piles of rubble, with shoddy construction blamed for many collapses.In Istanbul, poorly constructed buildings are already being pulled down. The city is home to over 15 million people and is prone to quakes.Supervising the demolition of one building, Imamoglu warned his city was facing an unprecedented threat.Building inspectionsA municipal website allows residents to request their buildings be checked. Unsafe buildings considered beyond repair are being demolished while others are strengthened, with the municipality offering grants and cheap loans to residents.But many people say they cannot afford to pay and now fear for themselves and their families. "My family's apartment building is a five-story building and quite old. My brother's family lives there," explains Istanbul resident, a retired teacher. Sabiha Kuskun. "They are terrified ... and their only consolation is they live on the top floor, and if the building collapses, they hope they can survive," she added. Global rights groups say Turkish media under attack over quake coverageIstanbul is the centre of the country's decade-long construction boom. Developers have reportedly benefited from zoning amnesties introduced by the government to allow constructors to legalise buildings that violated stringent earthquake regulations by paying a fine."The whole system in Turkey is built around the construction industry. Whatever we saw in the quake-hit cities of Hatay and Maras, we will probably see the same here in Istanbul, so we are talking about a big risk," warned Istanbul architect Omer Yilmaz. "The zoning amnesty has caused a huge problem; it is one of the foundations of the wider problem." Developers arrestedDozens of developers have been arrested in the aftermath of the February earthquakes. But Turkey's construction boom has driven the country's unprecedented economic growth, underpinning Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP Party's years of electoral success."Laws and regulations notwithstanding, it's the unstated policy of this government to use every square inch of land," observes analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. "A" to build residential or commercial property expansion, "B" to feed an ever-growing group of homebuilders and construction companies, which in turn finance AKP and Erdogan's election campaigns," added Yesilada. EU conference raises 7 billion euros for earthquake recovery in Turkey, SyriaBut the nearly two-decade construction boom under Erdogan's AKP Party rule became a means to social mobility and improvement for many in society and a key factor behind Erdogan's enduring political success."Now if you want to change your class in Turkey ... the only way you can do that is through construction," claims political columnist Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal. "You have a plot, you build something, then afterward, you get a lot of money. Then you're in the riches all of a sudden and you change class."Election campaigning is well underway ahead of May presidential and parliamentary polls. What happened and who is responsible in the February quake, with the death toll passing 50,000, is dominating the campaign. In a rare showing of contrition, Erdogan vowed never to use building amnesties again. "We can no longer think about enacting the laws of zoning amnesty. Otherwise, we will face what we experienced in the latest earthquake," he said in a television interview on Wednesday.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing his biggest electoral challenge in the May elections by the man dubbed the Turkish Gandhi. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in a rare move, has united much of the opposition, but critics warn he faces formidable obstacles to end Erdogan's more than 20-year rule. Backed by six political parties drawn from across the political spectrum, Kilicdaroglu, leader of the country's main opposition CHP party, announced his presidential candidacy on 6 March. He promises sweeping reform, an end to the executive presidency, and a return to parliamentary democracy.'Rule with consensus'"Kilicdaroglu says 'I will not rule as one man; I will rule with consensus'. He's promising economic stability and a Turkey with human rights where everyone is represented equally," explains Halk TV News Editor in Chief Bengu Sap Babaeker"And we should remember that Kemal Kilicdaroglu has been in politics and in state bureaucracy for a very long time. Yet, despite this, there has been no accusation of corruption," added Babaeker.Seventy-four-year-old Kilicdaroglu brought his CHP party back from the dead. His 2017 400km "March for Justice" from Ankara to Istanbul over the jailing of government critics morphed into one of the first major mass movements against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rule. Media dubbed Kilicdaroglu the Turkish Gandhi.Kilicdaroglu masterminded municipal election victories in four out of five of Turkey's largest cities, including Erdogan's political fortress Istanbul. But critics point out that the softly-spoken opposition leader, with his civil service background, lacks Erdogan's fiery charisma. As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social mediaKilicdaroglu has lost four general elections against Erdogan's AKP Party and his candidacy faced opposition within his coalition alliance."He's not seen as the typical leader. He's not the strong yelling type," said political scientist Zeynep Alemdar of Istanbul's Okan University."He doesn't demonstrate the qualities of that masculine leadership people are very much after. And it's not just in Turkey. Look at Russia, look at Trump! People like that type of leadership. He's very humble, soft-spoken. We don't really see him angry," added Alemdar.Earthquakes and politicsHowever, February's deadly earthquakes are widely seen as a political game changer, with outrage over construction failings and allegations of a slow response by the state to the disaster.Kilicdaroglu was quickly on the scene, offering condolences to survivors, voicing widespread criticism over the government's slow response to the disaster, and pledging to bring those responsible for poorly constructed buildings that collapsed, killing so many. Kilicdaroglu, some analysts say, caught the mood of the country. Turkish President asks for forgiveness over earthquake rescue delays "Kilicdarolgu said that something is going wrong with this whole system, so we must start something new all together. We must change this country for the better once and for all," observed Sezin Oney, a columnist at the Politikyol news portal. "He had a personal catharsis. When he visited the earthquake sites he was shaken, visibly moved. And I think he made the personal decision that this is going to be [his] legacy," added Oney.Religion as an obstacleReligion could be another obstacle for Kilicdaroglu. He comes from the liberal Alevi Islamic sect – considered by some conservative Muslims as heretic.Alevis have faced centuries of discrimination in Turkey. But analysts suggest after 20 years under Erdogan's rule, dominated by religious tension, the electorate is now more interested in economic concerns than identity politics. Turkish Constitutional Court decision boosts Erdogan's election chancesAlemdar says the country, and young people in particular, has moved on and people are no longer looking at "what the other believes in".They have bigger concerns, such as rocketing inflation. "The economy is in shambles, the currency crisis is there, debt is mounting," she added.With Kilicdaroglu's coalition of parties, including nationalists, Islamists, the left and right, he promises an end to political and ethnic polarisation in what is widely seen as the biggest challenge to Erdogan's rule.
International rights groups say independent Turkish media is under attack, with journalists facing fines and arrests over critical reporting of Erdogan's handling of the quake. The crackdown comes as the battle over control of the disaster narrative could prove key to determining the outcome of the May presidential polls. Local media like Jin news were at the forefront of reporting on February's deadly earthquakes, highlighting what critics claim was the government's and emergency services' slow response. Police attentionThe reporting drew unwanted attention from the police,"First, they prevented us from working; instead of reporting from the quake-hit area we were made to wait for two hours," explains Jin news reporter Sema Caglak. "The police took our press cards and then they took us to the police precinct. We were kept there for 3-4 hours and were asked why we came to the quake zone."The New York-based Human Rights Watch released a video condemning the arrest of several journalists covering the quake, who also had their equipment confiscated and destroyed in some cases. The government claim there is no systematic policy against the media, insisting that any actions by police against journalists were the result of individual officers working in a difficult situation. But independent tv stations like Halk TV, critical of the government's handling of the quake, were also targeted by heavy fines and temporary broadcasting bans for inciting public hatred. "In Turkey, more than 90% of the media is under government control," explains Halk TV News Editor in Chief Bengu Sap Babaeker. "So we knew that the fines would come because we were giving the voice of the people and the voice of the earthquake survivors.""But what we are really afraid of is being completely shut down," added Babaeker, "so there is self-censorship and extreme care in our reporting to try and avoid this." Latest tremor heaps misery on Turkish region reeling from earlier earthquake Turkey maintains cordial links with Russia on first anniversary of Ukraine war Turkish President asks for forgiveness over earthquake rescue delaysTargeting TV stationsInternational rights groups have condemned the penalites saying the fined tv stations were only engaged in critical reporting and that the penalties have more to do with looming elections. "We should underline that these fines are targeting these main critical TV stations before the elections, before the upcoming elections, which are supposed to take place on 14 of May," claims Erol Onderoglu, Turkey representative for the Paris-based Reporters without Borders. "So it is also a way to weaken financially weak critical media in Turkey. And, of course, by this, to control the discourse that the government tries to impose on public opinion," added Onderoglu.Prosecutors have started using newly introduced legislation criminalizing disinformation on social media, a crime that carries jail time.Reporters Without Borders reported that Turkish journalist Firat Bulut was arrested under the disinformation law while reporting on the earthquake. In a tweet, they are calling for his release. With looming presidential elections, journalists predict pressure will grow. "There is the reality, and we tried to show it through our reporting," said Jin news journalist Sema Caglak."The public who saw the reality no longer has faith in the state. From the first day of the quake until now, the question was, 'where is the government?'."I don't think the pressure of the government on the press will decrease, and I think it will become more difficult with the election process."Control of the quake narrative could be key to deciding the May presidential elections, which is why Halk TV News Babaeker says independent media poses such a threat to the government and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's dreams of re-election."The government wants to go to the elections on the grounds that this earthquake is an unprecedentedly large earthquake and that no country could cope with it. Despite this, the government claims miracles have been achieved," explained Babaeker."But the news we make telling the reality does not fit the atmosphere that the government wants to establish in Turkey on the way to the elections, which is very damaging to the narrative," Babaerker concluded.As the death toll passes, 50,000 dead, and millions more remain homeless; whether such terrible destruction was unavoidable or the result of government incompetence and corruption is a question that is likely to dominate the elections and their outcome. The battle for control of the quake narrative and the media's reporting will be key.
In a bid to quell rising anger over the handling of last month's deadly earthquakes, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week paid a visit to the south-eastern city of Adiyaman. He apologised and pledged a massive housing reconstruction project for survivors. In the aftermath of the 6 February deadly quakes, images across social media show survivors calling out: "Where is the state?" and "Where is help?"Anger and criticism have been growing over what many say was a slow response by the government and emergency services."It was mayhem," said Zeynep Alemdar, a political scientist at Istanbul's Okan University, describing the government's quake response."We are trying to get our heads around the enormity of the calamity," Alemdar told RFI."There are still places where they need tents. There are people who are still on the streets. All of us are just sad. We cannot believe that there are more than 40,000 dead and probably more will follow. Latest tremor heaps misery on Turkish region reeling from earlier earthquake"This is a calamity that is caused partly by the unaccountability, the corruption, the cronyism, and the way that these buildings are built," added Alemdar.With the government's response under fire in Istanbul, people mobilised to collect food, water, and urgently needed clothes, which were sent to the quake region within the first day. The main opposition CHP party coordinated the operation through its mayors in Turkey's largest cities like Istanbul and sent search and rescue teams.Out of touch"The president seemed to me that he didn't quite grasp the magnitude of the catastrophe," claimed Soli Ozel of Istanbul's Kadir Has University, suggesting that the opposition's speedy reaction made Erdogan appear out of touch."And the fact that everything emanates from the presidential palace meant that nobody could take initiatives, and saving face and rejecting blame seemed far more important than actually getting things done and saving lives.It also showed that the opposition is capable of getting things done contrary to claims by the government," added Ozel.During a visit to the quake region, Erdogan acknowledged initial shortcomings but hit out at criticism of the government and the Red Crescent, Turkey's equivalent to the Red Cross."When one comes out and asks: 'Where is Red Crescent? We haven't seen tents or food from them' ... You are immoral. You are dishonorable and you are despicable," the Turkish leader said, earning fresh condemnation across social media.With presidential elections on the horizon, Erdogan recalibrated his language during a visit to the devastated city of Adiyaman, asking for forgiveness and for the people to move on in a united fashion."Due to the devastating effect of the tremors and the bad weather, we were not able to work the way we wanted in Adiyaman for the first few days. I apologize for this," said Erdogan.Erdogan is also vowing to build more than 200,000 homes within a year for quake survivors.But the opposition claims the president is incapable of building safe homes, given so many buildings collapsed during the quakes, widely blamed on shoddy construction and lax regulations, most of which were built during his years in office. Country at a crossroadsWith the upcoming elections set to be held in the shadow of the Turkish republic's worst humanitarian crisis, the country is at a crossroads like no other."It's actually like a mirror where you see the hideous parts of your face," said Analyst Sezin Oney of the news portal Politikyol. "You understand that you cannot continue on like this anymore."You either have to change it, or you're going to be going under the rubble yourself one way or the other," added Oney. As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social media"I think these elections will also be a referendum, not just about changing the system, but about the whole psychology and whole makeup of the country, the whole character of the country, and which direction to go."Even before the disaster, the Turkish president was struggling in the polls with nearly 100 percent inflation.But Erodgan is now calling for unity, claiming only he and his centralised rule can meet the challenge. As the opposition sees it, the magnitude of the disaster is a result of Erdogan's more than 20 years of mismanagement and corruption.Turkey is no stranger to acrimonious elections but analysts this year predict an unusually bitter one.
In the aftermath of Turkey's killer quakes, there is desperation among survivors and increasing anger over the government's response. But many people across the country are mobilising to help. Throughout the night, people in Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, bring supplies for earthquake survivors. Two wedding halls are now one of many distribution centres for aid donated from across the city. "We opened the wedding cocktail halls this morning. There is incredible help coming from everywhere," beamed Elif Polat, the cocktail salon manager, who is now organising the sending of aid to quake survivors. "The aid is mostly food, blankets and duvets, as well as hygiene goods, diapers and an incredible amount of things, all top quality," added Polat."Yesterday, we had a crisis for 10 minutes or so about the number of cardboard boxes we had; we put out a message on social media, and heaps, heaps of boxes arrived immediately. It is awe-inspiring and beautiful."Hundreds of volunteers work through the night. For some, the motivation is personal.Ali Can Kocak said: "I am volunteering because my parents live in Adana, and my friends in Antakya, where the earthquakes hit the ground."And I can't go to those places. So I want to help people, and the nearest donation place to my house is here. And I will come here, and my friends will come here."Opposition efforts Istanbul mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, from the opposition CHP party is coordinating the city's relief effort, providing trucks and the use of city buildings.During a visit to the disaster region to meet with search and rescue teams dispatched from Istanbul, he offered condolences to people irreconcilable with grief. Ankara's mayor Mansur Yavas – also a member of the opposition – sent workers to rebuild one of the airports in the stricken region.The mayors' efforts are in stark contrast with growing criticism that the Turkish government was slow to respond to the quakes. As desperation grows, survivors criticise Turkey's earthquake response "They appeared to be competent, effective, and able to mobilise their resources much more rapidly," said political scientist Soli Ozel of Istanbul's Kadir Has University."Which shows that if you take the issue of earthquakes seriously and you make your preparations in responding to earthquakes, you can actually move mountains."It also shows that the opposition is capable of getting things done, contrary to claims on the part of the government and also to our own observations about the opposition that they can actually administer things, they can actually manage things."And in that sense, it was truly a matter of taking the quake issue seriously, and evidently, our government did not," claimed Ozel.Memories of IzmitThe government denies such criticism, arguing the disaster is a once-in-a-century event.But there was similar criticism in 1999 over the response to the Izmit earthquake just outside Istanbul, which claimed more than 18,000 lives.Memories of that disaster are still fresh in the minds of some survivors, and serve as motivation to help in this latest crisis. "I experienced the 1999 Izmit earthquake. We lived through that disaster. It was extremely hard for us," remembers aid volunteer Yilmaz, who wanted to go by only his first name."Now I saw this earthquake and I relived those moments. That's why I couldn't sit at home and drink tea and wanted to rush here and offer help." 'We need everything': Aid workers call for urgent help for Syrian quake victims UN aid enters Syria via new border crossing as quake toll nears 40,000Diapers, antiseptic cologne and other sanitary products are priority items as Istanbul comes together to help."From the oldest to the youngest, there is an incredible unity here," said aid organiser Polat. "I can see in everyone's eyes there is huge sorrow, but they are getting strength and motivation from this sadness," he said."I have been here for the last 25 years. I understood one more time in the last few days that we Turks are very strong."A truck filled to bursting point is off to the disaster region, bringing help and hope to some of the millions of people in need.
Search and rescue operations continue across the south-east of Turkey, the region struck by a huge earthquake and large aftershocks earlier this week. With the area facing freezing conditions, frustrations are growing among survivors over claims the government is acting too slowly. Desperation is growing in southern Turkey after it was struck by multiple quakes.Deniz, who only wanted to be identified by his first name, is losing hope for family members buried in their collapsed home in the province of Hatay. "They are talking, but nobody comes. We are finished. My God! They are speaking. There is nobody here. Nobody. What kind of state is this?" he said.Turkish authorities say as many as 17,000 buildings were destroyed, and many people were still trapped in them.Against the odds, rescue workers are meeting with some successes. In the city of Diyarbakir, rescue workers saved a 13-year-old buried in a collapsed apartment block for more than 36 hours.But criticism is growing over the response to emergency efforts.With temperatures falling below zero, hypothermia is a new danger facing the many people believed to be trapped in what is now becoming a race against time.Freezing temperatures are also posing a threat to the tens of thousands of people made homeless by the quake. Many survivors spent days on the streets in icy conditions."Our houses have been damaged; we cannot go inside now. We haven't eaten anything since morning; our children are very hungry. May God protect all of us," said Orhan Sahin from the quake-hit city of Kahramanmaras. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is dismissing such criticism. During a visit to the stricken region, the president acknowledged the response may have been initially slow, but said that thousands of search and rescue personnel were now deployed across the region."This period is the period of unity... It is the time of solidarity," said Erdogan on Wednesday, addressing the media in Antakya province."In such a period, I do not digest viciously negative campaigns conducted in the name of mere political interests. If I were not responsible for my position, I would not be speaking like that today, I would be speaking quite differently," he added.Erdogan earlier in the week said that prosecutors were monitoring social media for what he called "unscrupulous people" criticizing the government, and warned they would be held to account. As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social media Erdogan calls Turkish general election for 14 May, one month early'We need everything'With ten Turkish cities with populations of around 13 million badly damaged by the quake, the scale of the rescue operation is immense.But across the border in Syria, in the rebel-controlled enclave of Idlib, the deadly quakes have destroyed much of what little infrastructure remained from more than a decade of civil war.As a result, aid agencies say there is a desperate need for international support."It's crazy. Buildings are on the ground. People are helpless. They don't know what to do. No aid yet. And this is very important," warned Yakzan Shishakly, co-founder of the Maram Foundation, an aid agency working in Syria. "No aid has yet come to Idlib, and people don't know if they will receive aid or no aid. They're really devastated. We need everything, but medical supplies are so important, blankets, food, and that is what we really need right now," added Shishakly.While border crossings with Turkey are open, many of the roads to those borders have been severely damaged by the devastating quakes. However, on Thursday, the first aid convoys managed to enter Syria from Turkey. On both sides of the border, rescue workers are now racing against time, with the threat of disease, cold and hunger hanging over the shattered area.
Almost a month on from the insurrection in Brasilia, questions linger about the loyalty of Brazil's security forces and the potential for more violence. In scenes reminiscent of the storming of the United States Capitol, thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro ransacked Brazil's Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace on 8 January.Dressed in the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag, the rioters claimed the October elections won by Bolsonaro’s leftist rival, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, were rigged.Outnumbered legislative police officers in Brasilia fired tear gas and stun grenades as they tried to stop rioters from breaking into the Senate, footage released by TV Senado shows.But other images taken on the same day tell a different story. Lula, who was inaugurated at the start of the year, has said members of the military police and armed forces colluded with the rioters. France joins global condemnation of violent demonstrations in BrazilMilitarised politicsProfessor Marcio Moretto Ribeiro, an expert on polarisation at the University of São Paulo, questions whether all those responsible will face justice.“This is the most delicate thing happening now. We need now, for example, for the laws to be enforced against those people who committed the crimes in the Three Powers Square. And it's not entirely clear [...] if it will happen because you need the support of the military sector, and it’s not so clear whether they are committed to democracy,” he says.Bolsonaro, a former army captain who stacked his cabinet with military officers, has repeatedly questioned the integrity of Brazil’s voting system and refused to concede defeat in the October elections.The country’s election monitoring authorities and the Defence Ministry found no evidence of fraud.However, for months Bolsonaro’s supporters camped outside army bases, calling for the military to intervene.Video footage from 8 January has shown some police officers passively watching the rioters and members of the security forces dismantling a protective blockade. General Júlio Cesar de Arruda, Brazil’s army chief at the time, reportedly blocked the arrests of insurrectionists.Daniel Serra, who voted for Bolsonaro in the elections, says the riots were caused by a mistaken belief that the country could return to military rule.“The former president, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, he kind of didn't pay attention to the people who were camped outside the barracks. And I think the people were creating things in their heads that didn't exist, that he could come and bring a military regime,” Serra says.The unrest has divided Bolsonaro’s supporters. A poll by Atlas Intelligence conducted shortly after the riots showed an alarming 40 percent of Brazilians do not believe Lula won the election, but only 18 percent approved of the attacks. Lula's presidency builds up global hopes of saving Amazon rainforest The hand-to-hand struggle to fight Covid in Brazil's Amazonas stateSerra does not believe the election was rigged and is critical of the riots. “For me, as a Bolsonaro supporter, it didn't represent me because I found it very unethical. It’s also anti-democratic because it destroyed important bodies such as the National Congress and destroyed historical works inside,” he says.“Don't generalise everyone who voted for Bolsonaro, just those extremists who did that in the centre of Brasilia,” he added. Authorities detained over 2,000 people suspected of involvement in the insurrection and several officials have been removed from their posts or arrested.Bolsonaro, who days before Lula took office flew to Florida in the US, where he has remained ever since, has been included in the Brazilian Supreme Court’s investigation into the riots.'Belligerent opposition'After several recent attacks and plots, Brazil may face a persistent threat of political violence.“Apparently what January 8 indicates is that there seems to be a group of people in civil society who are willing to create opposition, which is a belligerent opposition, to take to the streets and to do eventually even violent protests for their agendas and I think that this will not be restricted to this election period,” Moretto Ribeiro says.“I think this will also show up at other times when the Lula government tries to advance certain progressive agendas,” he warns.At the Three Powers Square, where the three branches of government are located, security has been stepped up. Members of the elite National Security Force have been called in to patrol the area.There is evidence of the ferocity of the attacks here. The rioters smashed many of the windows of the Supreme Court. Security fencing outside the Planalto Palace, the office of the president, has been ripped up.There are also signs that Brazil’s institutions are still calibrating their response to the unrest. On 25 January, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes fined the Telegram messaging app for not suspending the account of a pro-Bolsonaro congressman, Nikolas Ferreira.The following day, after facing criticism on freedom of speech grounds, the Supreme Court justice determined that Ferreira’s social media accounts should be reactivated, albeit with some restrictions on what he can post.Lula’s government is having to walk a fine line between punishing those it deems responsible for stoking unrest and trying to keep a deeply divided country together.
Turkey's Constitutional Court has rejected a call by the second largest opposition party, the HDP, to postpone until after this summer's elections a case which could close the HDP. The decision has fuelled fears President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is using the judiciary to undermine the opposition. These are challenging times for Turkey's second-largest opposition group, the People's Democratic Party or HDP.The Constitutional Court has already frozen the organisation's state funding and is considering a case against the HDP for alleged links to Kurdish rebels of the PKK. A decision against the party could lead to the suspension of the HDP. In a further blow, the court this week rejected a call to delay the case until after parliamentary and presidential elections that must be held by June."The biggest legal problem is the cloud of suspicion hanging over the party's legal existence. Will it be able to enter the elections or not," wondered Ertugrul Kurkcu, honorary president of the HDP."This creates a lot of problems," says Kurkcu, "Because the present leadership of the party as a whole and the former leaders all are now under threat of being banned from politics. I can tell you, since 2015, at least 20,000 people who went through the prisons are exiled, or they go into hiding."The former HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas is already in jail in a case which has been condemned by the European Court of Human Rights as politically motivated. The Ankara government rejects such charges, insisting its courts are independent. But the HDP is the main rival to Erdogan's AKP party for the country's large Kurdish vote in what is expected to be a closely fought campaign,"Ideally Erdogan would like to close down HDP," says Mesut Yegen of the Reform Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank, "because if this happens, then it's likely that his AK party will get more seats."Other opposition groups in troubleThe main opposition CHP party is also facing legal woes. Its charismatic mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, widely tipped as a presidential challenger last month, was convicted of insulting an official and faces a political ban. Emma Sinclair-Webb is the senior Turkey researcher for Human Rights Watch. She warns that the judiciary is increasingly becoming a political tool. "The two areas where the government maintains control and gives itself a huge advantage are control of the judiciary and judicial decisions, which are then used against the opposition in a very arbitrary and restrictive way, and also control of the media and social media as well," said Sinclair-Webb With Turkey grappling with rampant inflation, opinion polls indicate that, for the first time in two decades, Erdogan is playing electoral catch-up. But the fear is that the courts rather than the voters could decide the outcome."It's as if there is no law anymore. It depends on Erdogan's wishes," warned Yegen. "It means that they can be even harsher. They can even suspend all the basic sort of rules or laws. And this is why the opposition is very much concerned about the security of the elections," added Yegen.
As Russian forces continue to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure, a company in Turkey claims its power ships can thwart Moscow's efforts to leave Ukrainians without electricity this winter. Russia's latest onslaught against Ukraine once again targeted civilians, with an apartment block in Dnipro destroyed in a missile strike on 14 January. But Russian attacks do not only take out homes. The streets of Ukraine are regularly plunged into darkness as missiles relentlessly hit the country's power stations."What they are seeing is that they are doing this in order to kill as many Ukrainians as possible – but in a kind of indirect way, by creating the unbearable conditions for life without electricity, heating and water," said Petro Burkovskiy, a senior fellow at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation in Kyiv."Right now, we have subzero temperatures and the winter has started. It's a real challenge for the people ... I would say hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will be in danger."But the Turkey-based company Karpowerships says it can help alleviate Ukraine's energy crisis.The company's promotional video boasts it has the world's largest fleet of power ships – floating power plants with massive generators that can operate independently.Up to 300 megawattsKarpowership operates worldwide, including in hotspots like Beirut, supplying millions of homes with electricity. According to Zeynep Harezi Yilmaz, the chief commercial officer of Karpowership: "We have been in contact with Ukrenergo [Ukraine's national power company] since August last year and with the Odesa governorate as well."The company could potentially place three 100-megawatt ships, Yilmaz said, adding that one such ship could power the port of Odesa and its facilities while the others could supply nearby residential areas."The technical side is where to position the power ship and whether there is enough water depth at the port," she explained. "And since we have a substation on board the power ship, it requires only a couple of overhead transmission lines to connect to the nearest substation."With Ukraine's power stations targeted by Russian forces, Kyiv says generators have become of strategic importance."That is why generators and uninterruptible power sources have now become as necessary in Ukraine as armored vehicles and bulletproof vests," declared Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, remotely addressing an international aid conference in Paris last month. Safety concernsProtecting power ships from Russian airstrikes would be a significant challenge. Ankara has maintained good relations with Moscow, but it is unclear whether the goodwill would extend that far."Physical security means that we need to be in a zone where our personnel is not threatened and we can continue supply logistics without any interruptions," warned Karpowership's Yilmaz."Now we are in communication with Moldova authorities and Romanian authorities to also evaluate the possibility of placing the ships in Romania or Moldova and then transmitting the electricity to Ukraine," she said. Turkey and Russia closer than ever despite Western sanctions Is the war in Ukraine creating a new world order?Karpowerships says that with some of its ships already close by, they could be supplying Ukraine with electricity within 30 days.But payment could be the biggest obstacle. "The question is who will pay for these services, whether it's the Ukrainian government or a kind of international agency, so these details are not clear," cautioned Burkovskiy.But time is not on Kyiv's side, as Russian forces are predicted to step up their assault on Ukraine's infrastructure just as the worst of winter sets in.
The head of Turkey's Medical Association was convicted of terrorist propaganda this week, after she called for an inquiry into an alleged chemical weapons attack against Kurdish separatists. It came as rights groups warn of an increasing legal crackdown on civil society ahead of polls this year. In the face of a heavy police presence, doctors joined by civil society groups and medical associations from across the world gathered outside Istanbul's court house on Wednesday demanding the acquittal of Sebnem Korur Fincanci, president of Turkey's largest doctors' union."What we hope today is the president of the Turkish Medical Association will be acquitted and be able again to speak freely and say what has to be said," said Dr. Frank Ulrich Montgomery, chair of the World Medical Association, in a speech to the demonstrators.But to no avail. Fincanci, a prominent forensic doctor, was convicted of terrorist propaganda for calling for an independent inquiry into allegations that the Turkish army used chemical weapons against Kurdish separatist group the PKK in Iraq, after she was presented during a television interview in October with photos apparently showing dead militants.The military vigorously denies using chemical weapons.Free pending appeal"This court case should never have happened; this is a scandalous verdict. She only expressed a scientific opinion. We will appeal," declared Ozturk Turkdogan, one of Fincanci's lawyers and co-chair of Turkey's Human Rights Association.With Fincanci's sentence under three years, she was eligible for release. She had been in jail since October, when she was taken from her home by police in an early-morning raid.She was freed on Wednesday while she appeals the verdict.'Disproportionate'The arrest and conviction of Fincanci, a leading member of Turkish civil society, is seen by rights groups as sending a powerful political message."She made that statement in her capacity as a doctor who is a forensic medical specialist, who's looked at war crimes, who's looked at mass graves, who's looked at all sorts of things concerning chemical weapons as well," said Emma Sinclair-Webb, senior Turkey researcher for Human Rights Watch. "If someone like her can't question these things, who can?"Any critical statements to the media risk being construed as an act of terrorism, according to Sinclair-Webb. "It's a completely disproportionate response to prosecute someone like Sebnem Korur Fincanci," she said. "The larger issue here is that ... the government is very unhappy with Turkey's Medical Association because it has made critical statements about health issues."As head of the physicians' union, Fincanci was an outspoken supporter of recent protests by doctors over conditions and the government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.Mounting pressureWith much of the media under government control, Turkey's civil society is one of the last remaining platforms critical of the authorities.Philanthropist Osman Kavala, a prominent supporter of Turkish civil society, remains jailed in a case condemned nationally and internationally as politically motivated, a charge the government vehemently denies.Rights groups warn pressure on civil society is likely to grow, with presidential elections due by June this year. As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social media What will the deadly bombing in Istanbul mean for Turkish politics?"It will increase because now we are in the election process. So they will, of course, target NGOs, human rights defenders, or [anyone] outspoken," predicts Sinan Gokcen, head of the Turkish branch of the Swedish-based Civil Rights Defenders."There is no isolated case in Turkey," said Gokcen. "All are linked, or all such cases are part of a bigger plan to silence the human rights community. Not only the human rights community, but civil society in general. Because in an authoritarian regime, in any country – in Russia, in Belarus, in Hungary, Poland – the first target of the authoritarian regime is the truth."But Fincanci's release from jail is seen by her supporters as a small victory.Speaking to a small crowd of friends and supporters outside prison, she struck a defiant note."Doctors who struggle not only within these borders but also for people all over the world, for all living species, for this earth, for the universe, are natural human rights defenders," she declared."Therefore, jailing them or shutting down their professional organization is out of the question. Such attempts can be made; they have been made before. But in the end, they had to give up. We will keep on struggling for them to give up again."The small crowd outside the prison cheered and sang songs celebrating Fincanci's release.But with many of her supporters belonging to Turkey's civil society, they remain aware they are increasingly living in the shadow of arrest and prosecution.
The return to power of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is raising questions over the future of Turkish-Israeli rapprochement, given the tempestuous relations between Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to date. Netanyahu's election victory – which swept him back to power as prime minister again – comes as Turkish-Israeli relations are warming.During Netanyahu's previous rule, he and Erdogan routinely exchanged insults."I think there is an issue in this history between these two leaders, yes," warned Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, a research organization in Tel Aviv. "There were rhetorical battles between them," Lindenstrauss added. "Especially after the previous normalization attempt in 2018 reached a crisis point. But both leaders are very pragmatic. They both have been in power for a long time and now this pragmatism will assist them." As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social mediaCongratulationsErdogan was quick to call Netanyahu to congratulate him on his election victory in a conversation both sides said was cordial.Mesut Casin, a presidential adviser at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, says Iran provides common ground, with Erdogan sharing Netanyahu's concerns over growing Iranian regional influence and Tehran's nuclear energy programme. "There has been a big transformation in relations between Turkey and Israel relations," added Casin. "This is beneficial for two sides."Israel has a big headache with Iran. Especially Netanyahu who is very suspicious of Iranian nuclear weapons. According to Netanyahu, they are almost ready to have nuclear forces. Also, this is against the Turkish vital interest. This will be a collapse of the balance of power in the Middle East," said Casin. With Netanyahu relying on the support of political parties that some analysts describe as having hardline policies toward the Palestinians, a potential flashpoint remains."There is, of course, the shadow of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I think we cannot ignore it," cautioned Lindenstauss. "Any serious deterioration on the Israeli-Palestinian front will also affect Turkish public opinion and will also affect Erdogan and his statements towards Israel."And we should be cautious because this is an issue that is a point of contention between the two countries," added Lindenstrauss.Ankara's 'change of priorities'Tuesday's visit by Israeli's National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, accompanied by a large security detail to Jerusalem's Temple Mount, one of Islam's holiest sites, drew widespread condemnation across the Muslim world. The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, in a telephone conversation with his Israeli counterpart, Eli Cohen, condemned the visit.But Erdogan, who in the past rarely missed an opportunity to attack Israel for similar actions, remained silent on the incident.Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution in Washington suggests Ankara's priorities may have changed. "The Palestinian issue is very much on the back burner in terms of the Turkish discussion. over the past few years."Over the past few years, various flare-ups on the Israeli-Palestinian front have barely made it to the news in Turkey."Traditionally, the Palestinian issue had been a litmus test for the relationship between Turkey and Israel. But I think now times are different. Turkey feels it needs Israel's support, that it has developed a strategic relationship with Israel."The truth is, the Palestinian issue is no longer as critical or important or consequential for the leadership of the Turkish government at the moment."Regional power playErdogan's rapprochement with Israel is part of a broader policy of improving ties in the region.Analysts point out that many of those country's leaders were uncomfortable with Erdogan's strong backing of the Palestinian cause. For now, Ankara's priorities appear to be focusing on cooperation with Israel from energy to defence."Turkey is, again, how can I say, eager to establish military cooperation together with Israel," said Casin."I worked with Israel in the military service. We made very good agreements between Turkey and Israel."
Turkish military forces are poised to launch a ground offensive in Syria against US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces, accused by Ankara of attacks on Turkey. But Ankara is facing stiff opposition from both Washington and Moscow. Turkish security forces blame the Syrian Kurdish YPG for carrying out a series of recent attacks against Turkey, including in Istanbul, a charge the group denies. The Turkish Defense Ministry said Sunday that Turkey launched deadly airstrikes over northern regions of Syria and Iraq, targeting Kurdish groups that Ankara holds responsible for last month's deadly bomb attack in a bustling street in Istanbul.Ankara also accuses them of being linked to PKK insurgents fighting in Turkey.After shelling positions held by the YPG, Turkish forces are now poised to create a 30 km deep security corridor inside Syria.Mesut Casin, a presidential advisor at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, says preparations are almost complete for the incursion saying Turkey has no choice. What will the deadly bombing in Istanbul mean for Turkish politics?"Just in a short time, three attacks killed many civilians. This is number one. And number two, the military has explained that within the last eight months, we lost more than one hundred military service people." Casin told RFI. He points to a map on his computer screen of the Syrian region under YPG control."A lot of weapons are deployed in the YPG area in eastern Syria. Often their missiles kill civilians. This is an unacceptable condition for Turkey. This is against our military security and sovereignty," he explains. Difficult diplomacyThe YPG strenuously denies it is launching attacks into Turkey.The Syrian Kurdish group is a close ally of the United States in its war against the Islamic State.The group says it suspended some its operations against the Islamic State because of the looming Turkish threat."There's the danger that the US government will be torn between two unsavoury options," says Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow of the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank."That is to say, abandoning their Kurdish allies, who they've been fighting with, fighting ISIS since 2014, or facing a confrontational relationship with Turkey, when things seem to be on a relatively even keel."So both of these options are bad," Aydintasbas continues. "The US would be faced with this dilemma if there was a Turkish incursion. So what they're trying to do, behind the scenes, is urge and warn Turkey not to go ahead."Washington is calling on Ankara to step back, a stance echoed by Moscow, which controls part of Syria that Ankara is targeting. Russia also controls Syrian airspace access, which analysts say Turkish forces would need for any ground operation.Iranian-backed militia in Syria have also vowed to resist any Turkish incursion. Political distractionBut with Turkey in the midst of a deep economic crisis, some analysts say powerful domestic forces are behind the planned operation.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing reelection next year and cannot risk losing face by pulling back from such an incursion."Erdogan desperately needs an operation, any military operation beyond Turkish national borders, and the best place would be in Syria," says Rtd general Haldun Solmazturk of the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute. Russia's Putin searches for allies in meeting with Iranian and Turkish leaders"But it has become obvious that neither the United States nor the Russian Federation would let this happen. So faced with this reality, Erdogan has already backed down, I believe, and now he's bargaining," Solmazturk says.One concession Ankara is looking for from Washington is purchasing American fighter jets, a sale currently stalled in the US Congress.No let up"I believe the incentive for Mr. Erdogan is to conduct this operation because it would create a kind of rallying around the flag movement," Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat and now a regional analyst for Medyascope news portal, told RFI."The operation may be delayed, but the threat, or the statement of an imminent military operation for northern Syria, will stay with us until the elections, at least," Selcen adds.Whatever Ankara does, few predict any let up in the coming months by the Turkish military in its targeting of the YPG.
This week Turkey held joint military exercises with Azerbaijan on Iran's border, as its Baku warns Tehran it will not be intimated. With anti-government protests continuing in Iran, Tehran is being accused of escalating regional tensions. Iran is faces growing accusations from its neighbors that it's deliberately raising regional tensions. Tehran has recently carried out military exercises on Azerbaijan's border and warned Baku not to incite Iran's significant Azeri minority. "Iran tries to shift the attention of the Iranian population towards foreign policy, towards conflicts on the border and towards a polemic with its neighbor countries, said Zaur Gasimov, an expert in the region at Bonn University."The (Iranian) military drills were conducted not only on the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan in the north but also with Iraq and Turkey. So, they are like messages to the region, but they are addressed much more to the local audience."But Baku is pushing back against Tehran, carrying out its own military exercises this month on Iran's border with its close ally Turkey. Spying accusationsMeanwhile, last month, Azerbaijani security forces detained 19 people and accused them of working for Iranian intelligence. Huseyin Bagci, head of the Ankara-based Foreign Policy Institute, argues Baku is emboldened by its support from Turkey, enshrined in the Shusha joint defence agreement."Turkey and Azerbaijan [are] brothers, friends. And they have this Shusha agreement, which is not binding but important," said Bagci."If Azerbaijan is under attack or in danger, Turkey will come unconditionally to the help of Azerbaijan," added Bagci. "Iran is trying to extend its influence, but Turkey is like a barrier stopping Iran's influence in Azerbaijan. " Turkey's Erdogan cosies up to Italy's far-right Prime Minister Giorgia MeloniTurkish military support was vital to Azerbaijan in 2020 when it decisively defeated Armenian-backed forces in a conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. This month's joint military exercise with Azerbaijan underlines Ankara's support to Baku and a warning to Tehran."Iran they do many military exercises and power show around the Azerbaijan border," said Turkish Presidential advisor Mesut Casin of Istanbul's Yeditepe University."This is giving to is a kind of signal against Iran, stop, and you have to take care about Azerbaijan's independence and their sovereignty."CondemnationIn a sign of an increasingly assertive Baku, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev condemned Tehran last month."For all these years, a situation similar to today's never occurred. A hateful and threatening statement was never made against Azerbaijan," Aliyev said in a television address."Iran conducted two military exercises on our border in a few months. Therefore, we had to conduct military exercises on the Iranian border to show that we are not afraid of them," added Aliyev. "We will do our best to protect the secular lifestyle of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijanis around the world, including Azerbaijanis in Iran. They are part of our people." Debate on religious headscarves returns to the heart of Turkish politicsAliyev's robust comments is seen as a marked change in relations between Azerbaijan and Iran. Until now, Baku rarely spoke of its large Azeri population in Iran, mindful of Tehran's sensibilities and suspicions of it minority. "The last three decades, Baku was very cautious in its relationship to the very large Azeri-speaking community in northern Iran," observes Gasimov."But we have seen the conduct of the military drills on the border to Iran as the reaction to the Iranian military drills by the Azeri side. And in the same time, new discourse in Baku about the Azeri speakers in Iran were two gestures addressed to the Iranian political class, saying that something has changed in the region."In a move analysts say will further anger Tehran, Baku opened an embassy in Israel. The two countries already have close military ties, despite Tehran's warnings. For now, Ankara has refrained from commenting on the turmoil in Iran, but some analysts warn that silence will be tested if Tehran ratchets up tensions with Baku.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Italy's newly elected far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni appear to be finding unlikely common ground on issues relating to Africa and migration. Meloni's is the latest in a list of strong partnerships that Erdogan has been working to build with European far-right leaders. At the first meeting between Erdogan and Meloni, there were smiles and a warm handshake on the sidelines of the G-20 gathering in Indonesia. Despite one of Meloni's first moves after winning the general election calling for a freeze on mosque construction in Italy.Common groundAt the same time, Erdogan is positioning himself as a defender of Muslim rights, at home and abroad, as he heads into elections next year. But Huseyin Bagci, head of the Ankara-based Foreign Policy Institute, says the Italian and Turkish leaders have plenty of common ground. "Tayyip Erdogan is an Islamist and a Turk. Meloni is Christian and Italian. So, they understand each other much better," said Bagci."They don't talk about certain values, democratic values, they talk about the religious values, they talk about the nationalistic values, and I think they will understand each other much better than the others," added Bagci.One of Meloni's priorities is to stem migration from Africa, much of which comes through Libya. In addition, Turkey has strong ties with Libya's Government of National Unity, giving Erdogan a vital bargaining chip."Turkey now has a base in west Libya. It controls all critical infrastructure in west Libya. And as you know, west Libya is a very important human trafficking point to Europe," pointed out," Aya Burweila, a visiting lecturer on security at the Hellenic National Defense College in Athens." "So, Turkey now has a base in North Africa. They control the ports right now in western Libya," added Burweila. "They control the militias in west Libya involved in human trafficking. So definitely, this is a bargaining chip with them going Europe." Italy’s far-right Meloni becomes country’s first woman to lead governmentStrained relationshipsBut Rome could pay a high cost for deepening ties with Ankara. Relations between Turkey and European Union member Greece over several territorial disputes, with the country's armed forces regularly challenging one another. Turkey also has strained relations with Egypt, an important trading partner of Italy. "I think Italy has not forgotten that it's a European nation," points Mediterranean analyst Jalal Harchaoui of the civil-society network Global Initiative. "Italy also has a lot of hydrocarbon business going with Egypt. It's not in the business of angering Egypt particularly. So, I would really keep a distinction between Turkey and Italy. Italy is not very happy to see this level of controversy," added Harchaoui. Italian analysts also point out that while Meloni campaigned on a platform attacking the European Union leadership, the new Italian Prime Minister now in power is seeking to consolidate her position, which, at least for now, appears to be seeking to avoid confrontation with Brussels."In the electoral campaign during which Meloni declared her party is not so European integrated and so on and so forth. After having won the election, she decided to turn to a more European-integrated foreign policy.Tightening the alliance with Nato, with the other western allies with the United States and the European Union," observes Alessia Chiriatti, a researcher on the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa for the Italian-based IAI think tank says. Who is Giorgia Meloni, the far-right contender set to be Italy's first female PM?Italy and EuropeChiriatti argues Meloni will be careful not to isolate herself in Europe with her dealings with Erdogan."The Meloni foreign policy will be related to Italian membership in the European Union. So it could be possible to collaborate more intensively with Turkey on migration Italian role in Maghreb and Middle East but not without the European dimension for Meloni and for Italy," added Chiriatti.But Meloni and Erdogan share strained relations with French President Emmanuel Macron over incidents in which Italian authorities recently refused to allow a ship carrying migrants to dock. The vessel then had to go to France, where the migrants finally disembarked. The Turkish and Italian leaders also aim to challenge France's lucrative economic interests in Africa. Paris Perspective #32: NATO and the Erdogan paradox - Dorothée SchmidRelations with FranceDuring her election campaign, Meloni slammed France's colonial record in Africa and accused Paris of persisting with a colonial mentality towards African countries. Her words echo Erdogan's frequent criticism of France. Erdogan has years of experience working with other far-right and right-wing European leaders like Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban. "He actually has a good working relationship with Islamaphobe autocrats like Orban, for instance, or like Putin, for instance, who might not be seen as a particular pro-Islamist. I mean, who might not be seen as a particular pro-Islamist," notes Senem Aydin-Duzgit a professor of international relations at Sabanci University near Istanbul."So, it doesn't matter if she's (Meloni) far right, and I think it might even work more to his (Erdogan) interests that she is far right. Because he, Turkey, the current Turkish government, is quite happy to see a Europe that's disunited and that is devoid of so-called values."Istanbul's newest bridge was built by an Italian company. Trade is the bedrock of Italian-Turkish ties, which the two countries leaders appear ready to build upon.
As elections approach and politicians play to fears over the number of refugees in Turkey, a new report by Human Rights Watch accuses Turkish authorities of indiscriminately deporting Afghans regardless of the dangers awaiting them in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
These are dangerous times for Ahmad, not his real name.
His name is being withheld for security reasons. Once a US-trained pilot fighting the Taliban, he has been in Istanbul for the last year, waiting for his American asylum application to be processed. But as he explains, he now lives under the shadow of deportation back to Afghanistan.
"I know of people that have been deported, and a few of them were former military personnel," Ahmad says. "The Taliban say they have forgiven the former government military personnel, but they haven't. We hear the news that they are still looking for them, and they're still getting killed and kidnapped.
"I was a pilot in Afghanistan, and my deportation will cause a serious risk to my life. When you're deporting an Afghan back to Afghanistan, it's not only you are just deporting a person, you're putting somebody's life at risk." Thousands deported In a slickly produced video posted on Twitter and other social media, Turkey's Directorate General of Migration Management proudly announced the latest deportations of Afghans by air. The total now stands at over 54,000 for this year, while another 240,000 were pushed back at the Iranian border or denied entry.
A Human Rights Watch report released this month accuses authorities of using coercion and indiscriminately deporting Afghans without properly considering their claims to asylum.
"What we are seeing is that these people are generally rounded up in cities in big police operations, put in removal centres, and then coerced into signing or accepting return voluntarily – so-called voluntarily. If you beat somebody enough, they're bound to sign a form," said Emma Sinclair-Webb, senior Turkey researcher for Human Rights Watch.
The title of the report, "No one asked me why I Left Afghanistan", refers to the fact that nobody in the report was offered the chance to file a claim for asylum, she explains.
The Turkish authorities strongly deny the charge of coercion and say they comply with international standards. Pre-election fears The Human Rights Watch report also strongly criticized the European Union for failing to share the refugee burden with Turkey more equitably, and called for an end to EU countries pushing back refugees from their borders.
Turkey hosts nearly four million refugees, mainly Syrians. However, with growing public discontent over refugees and elections due next year, the Turkish government is wary of allowing the number to rise.
Turkey looks to play pivotal role in Taliban's new Afghanistan
"The Turkish government is afraid of a new wave of Afghan refugees," believes Ali Hekmat, the head of the Afghan Refugees Solidarity Association. More Afghans are arriving in Turkey now than Syrians, he says, and Turkish authorities fear that millions more will head to the country from other neighbouring countries such as Pakistan and Iran.
Fringe opposition parties regularly release anti-refugee videos on social media, while the main opposition is also taking a hard line on the issue.
Opinion polls indicate that after inflation, the presence of refugees is ranked as voters' main concern. 'Race against time' The round-up of Afghans is expected to intensify as elections approach. Authorities also announced many Afghans in Istanbul will not have their residence permits renewed – including Ahmad.
His permit expired this month, leaving him in a precarious situation.
"I'm scared any time I'm walking in the street, I'm scared that police may ask for a document and I don't have it," he says. "So I may face deportation. I'm very scared of being deported back to Afghanistan."
Afghan students in India face tense future as visas run out
But Ahmad says his final interview for his application for asylum in the United States is only weeks away, offering hope of being reunited there with his wife and four children.
"It's a race against time," he says.
The coming weeks could decide Ahmad's life: deportation back to Afghanistan and possible death – or the hope of a new life with his family.
In Turkey, the political and diplomatic fallout continues after a deadly bombing on Istiklal Avenue in Istanbul. Turkey blames Kurdish militants backed by the United States for the attack, which comes months before fraught elections. On Saturday, Bulgarian prosecutors charged five people in connection with the blast.
Mourners continue to lay flowers at the site of the 13 November bombing in Istanbul's most famous shopping street.
The attack killed six, including a mother and son, and a father and daughter. Dozens more were injured.
Shop owners are clearing up the devastation and, like the rest of the city, trying to come to terms with this latest attack.
"It has been a disaster, " said shopkeeper Lokman Kalkan.
"People were fighting for their lives. There was blood everywhere, and screaming and crying. There was nothing we could do."
While the country grieves for the dead, the political repercussions are already being felt.
Security forces, after detaining the alleged bomber just hours after the attack, claimed it was carried out by the Kurdish militant group the Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK, a charge it denies.
The PKK is fighting the Turkish state for greater minority rights. But Devlet Bahceli, leader of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's parliamentary coalition partner the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has called for the closure of the political party that represents Kurds in parliament, the Peoples' Democratic Party or HDP.
"We don't want to see separatists in the parliament. We cannot stand seeing terrorists. We cannot tolerate the HDP for even a second," Bahceli bellowed to cheers from his parliamentary deputies.
The HDP is already facing closure, accused of having links with the PKK, a charge it denies. Many of its parliamentary deputies are jailed on terrorism charges, convictions condemned as politically motivated by the European Court of Human Rights. Tension with the US The bombing fallout is also threatening to strain US-Turkish relations further.
The police allege the bomber was trained by the Syrian Kurdish militia, the People's Defense Units (YPG), which Ankara says is affiliated with the PKK. Washington backs the Syrian Kurdish group in its fight against Islamic State extremists near the border between Syria and Turkey.
Speaking at the site of the bombing, Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said Turkey should rethink its relationship with the United States.
"We refuse the condolences of the American embassy," Soylu said. "We cannot accept an alliance with a state that sends money from its own senate to these groups, feeding the terror zones in [border town] Kobani, which aims to disturb Turkey's peace. Such a state is in a contradictory situation. This is open and clear." Turkey lays the ground for a smoothing of relations with Syria Turkey and Russia closer than ever despite Western sanctions There is a large audience in Turkey for such anti-American rhetoric, argues Senem Aydin-Duzgit of the Istanbul Policy Centre.
"You have the Americans' alliance with the Kurds, in particular in northern Syria. So there is this perception that America is sort of in an alliance with the PKK and the Kurdish nationalist movement. And that creates hostility," she says.
"And there is a lot of anti-Americanism in Turkey as well – some of it historical, ideological, because you have anti-Americanism both on the right and the left of the political spectrum." Ghosts of 2015 election Diplomatic fallout between Ankara and Washington appears contained, at least for now. Despite strong words at home, Erdogan recently met US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia.
But analysts suggest the real impact could be on Turkey's presidential elections next year. Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, the AKP, are currently languishing in the opinion polls.
Soli Ozel, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, is wary of a repeat of the 2015 general elections, when the AKP lost its absolute majority in parliament and an alternative government couldn't be formed. As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social media How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before polls That forced the vote to be repeated five months later, and in between violence escalated, says Ozel. "There were terrorist incidents, and one of the most awful terrorist incidents in the country's history with the largest number of deaths took place only 20 days before the repeat election," he recalls.
Erdogan's AKP party eventually won the second election with a large majority.
Opposition parties are already raising questions over the investigation into the Istiklal Avenue bombing, particularly the speed of the inquiry and its swift conclusions.
That scrutiny is only likely to grow given the high political stakes, as many in the country look towards next year's election with increasing foreboding.
In Turkey, the right of women to wear religious headscarves has returned to the core of the country's political agenda. With elections less than a year away, the leaders of Turkey's main political parties are vowing to enshrine the right for women to wear religious dress legally, an issue that for decades has been at the centre of a bitter political struggle.
With presidential elections due in June 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the leader of the main opposition CHP party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, are promising to introduce legal guarantees for the right of women to wear a religious headscarf.
Addressing party supporters in October, Erdogan – whipping up his conservative religious base – committed himself to constitutional reform to protect the rights of the religious.
"In order to completely ease the hearts of our daughters and sisters, I proposed the freedom of the headscarf," he bellowed to thousands of supporters at a rally in the provincial city of Malatya..
"What did I propose? We have started the preparation of a constitutional proposal by adding the protection of the family against the impositions of perverted trends, which is another vital issue," Erdogan added to rapturous cheers from the crowd. A brief history of headscarf restrictions Erdogan's lifting of restrictions a decade ago on religious dress – introduced to protect the Turkish secular state – is one of his most significant achievements, claims Emine Ucak, a journalist who wears a religious headscarf and writes for the news journal Perspective.
"The headscarf issue in Turkey was implemented within the framework of a law as a ban that prevented many women from participating in the public sphere and receiving education," explains Ucak.
"That was how it was in the past. And this lasted for many years, both in the public sphere, in public institutions, and the issue of education. But this ban wasn't only confined to public institutions.
"This continued in other sectors, in the private sector. So these women went through this trauma, some still couldn't go back to their professions," added Ucak. As elections loom in Turkey, Erdogan pulls plug on opposition social mediaHeadscarf debate wins votes Throughout the 1990's and early 2000s, students wearing headscarves protested against a ban on them from attending universities, becoming lawyers or judges, or even a member of parliament.
The issue has proved a vote winner for Erdogan in the past.
In 2008 Erdogan, then as prime minister, won a landslide in a general election dominated by whether his political ally Abdullah Gul could be president as his wife wore a headscarf.
The staunchly pro-secular CHP strongly advocated the ban, holding mass rallies in its support. But now it's calling for legislation to guarantee the right to wear the headscarf.
"It is very significant because I believe that CHP has luggage because of those limitations, those bannings," said Politics and law professor Istar Gozaydin has written several books on religious affairs in Turkey.
"A step like that I find very, very successful in the sense of embracing more of the society, that a huge step in terms of CHP would be to be expressing yourself to fight for the rights of the whole, not just that certain amount of part of the society," added Gozaydin. Outrage as Turkish courts seek to silence anti-femicide campaignersGenerational shift The CHP's shift comes as – under Erdogan's two-decade rule – a generation has grown up without such barriers.
A conservative religious middle class also has emerged and prospered.
Some analysts say they are now more concerned about the country's present economic woes of near triple-digit inflation than past religious debates.
"Many of the fights their parents had are not these kids' fights, right? They don't care," said Can Selcuki, the head of Istanbul Economics Research, an opinion poll company.
"Let's take a head-veiled girl that's having her university education right now. Her fight is not to keep her veil on, but her fight is to get a better education and to get a higher-paying job, so she can start a family and a good career," continued Selcuki. Erdogan's anti-LGBT platform But Erdogan is seeking to broaden the debate calling for constitutional reform that not only guarantees the right to wear the headscarf but protects the family from what he calls "perverse trends," a reference to the LGBT community.
"There is a strong underlining of the family values, of the protection of the family," observes Gozaydin.
"And more its to do, not only with this scarf issue, which is I find quite a fringe issue for the moment but more with the LGBT+ groups. So he's trying to set an agenda against those groups within conservative circles."
Crackdowns are already enforced on what were once legal, public displays by Turkey's vibrant LGBT community.
While anti-LGBT protests have already started, as parties jockey to set the political agenda ahead of what is widely predicted to be closely fought elections.
Photographs of bruised and naked migrants at the Greek Turkish border have drawn international condemnation. Ankara and Athens have blamed each other for the incident. Rights groups warn that escalating Greek Turkish tensions risk having a terrible impact on refugees.
Greek Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi accused Turkish authorities of stripping naked 92 male migrants and forcing them into Greece.
The men were found by Greek police close to the two countries' northern border, some with injuries. The UN's refugee agency, the UNHCR, said it was deeply distressed by the images and reports of the naked migrants and called for an investigation. Ankara has blamed Greek authorities for the incident.
"It's natural for Greece to attempt to slander Turkey as its own crimes multiply," said Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, adding, "one has to be truly shameless and reckless to try to appear right even in the most unfair situation."
The ugly incident and resulting blame game is the latest in an increasingly bitter war of words and videos between Athens and Ankara over the migrant crisis. Attacking immigrants Ankara has released numerous videos of Greek coast guards purportedly pushing migrants and refugees back to Turkey. Athens too has released a video on Twitter, accusing Turkish authorities of attacking migrants.
"These people, because we are talking about people, women, men, and children, are trapped in a strategic game between Greece and Turkey," warned Eva Cossé, the representative in Greece of Human Rights Watch.
Greece and Turkey have been increasingly at odds over a range of territorial disputes centered on the Aegean and Mediterranean seas. Athens fears migration could be the latest front in bilateral tensions. Tensions rise between Greece and Turkey over island military bases Athaniosos Drougos, a defense analyst at Greece's War College, does not believe the situation will degenerate into outright war..
"But on the other hand," he says, "we will have some hybrid asymetrıc episodes with the case of illegal immigration, especially from the Evros river."
The river Evros forms part of the border between Turkey and Greece. Two years ago, a migrant crisis erupted after Ankara, then hosting four million refugees, declared it was opening its border with Greece.
Greek security forces used teargas and rubber bullets in a weeks-long campaign against people trying to enter the country.
In Turkey, there's been growing public animosity towards migrants and refugees. And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under pressure to address the issue in the run-up to elections next year. He accuses Greece and Europe of failing to share the refugee burden.
"What I see now is the politicisation of the issue by the (Turkish) opposition parties mainly and the instrumental position of the refugee issue by the government in their relationship with Europe," observed Didem Danis of the Istanbul-based Association for Migration Research. Highest price "Of course, this creates a very difficult situation for the refugees because they feel more and more anxious about their everyday survival," added Danis.
And experts warn that refugees will pay the highest price in this escalating diplomatic war.
"Unfortunately, every now and then, we hear about the demise of people who are trying to cross, for the pushbacks conducted on both sides," said Omar Kadkoy of the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey.
"And the only people who are losing in this journey are those asylum seekers or people who want to have a better future for themselves. But trying to cross the borders nowadays is definitely riskier than it was," added Kadkoy.
Earlier this month,18 migrants and refugees drowned while crossing from Turkey to a Greek island. Dozens more are missing. Rescue workers and islanders worked through the night in a desperate struggle to reach survivors. Most of the victims were women and children.
Greek and Turkish authorities blamed each other for the deaths. The only thing both sides appear to agree on is that this tragedy will not be the last.
Turkey's parliament has passed a law which will criminalise the spreading of fake news on social media. The move has drawn national and international condemnation. Critics claim the legislation is intended to silence one of Turkey's last platforms for free expression ahead of elections in 2023.
The Turkish government has, in recent years, introduced several pieces of legislation aimed at controlling social media. But critics say the latest 40-article law is the most severe.
Wielding a hammer before his fellow deputies, Burak Erbay of the opposition Republican People's Party recently destroyed his mobile phone during the parliamentary debate on the so-called "disinformation law".
"If the law passes here, you can break your phone like this, my brothers. You will not need to use it," he yelled, warning the government that "these young people will give you the lesson you deserve in June 2023".
Tightening its control on media will be vital for the government ahead of the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections, says journalist Hikmet Adai of the Turkish news portal Bianetand.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party continue to languish far behind in the polls after over two decades of rule.
"With the ongoing economic crisis, the government doesn't want this bad news to be disseminated, especially for the world to see the scale of the crisis".
"This law, represents the heaviest censorship in Turkish press history, so it will definitely affect journalism," added Adai.
Condemnation of the disinformation law is not confined to Turkey, with a European legal watchdog warning that the legislation threatens freedom of expression and independent journalism ahead of next year's elections.
The warning is in a report compiled by the Venice Commission, which advises the Council of Europe on constitutional matters. A way to kill political debate "Our main concern is the chilling effect that this will have on the political debate in Turkey as this draft law will apply to everyone," said Herdis Kjerulf Thorgeirsdottir, vice president of the Venice Commission.
"Secondly, the heavy sanctions of one to three years imprisonment of those found guilty of disseminating false or misleading information will lead to widespread self-censorship," she insists.
Rights groups already rank Turkey among the world's sternest jailers of journalists, a charge Ankara denies.
Press freedom concerns as Ankara forces internet giants to bow to Turkish law
Yaman Akdeniz of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association says social media threatens the government's control of media in general.
"Social media usage in Turkey is high, whether it's Twitter, Facebook or other social media platforms. Turkish people predominantly rely on social media to obtain information because we cannot any longer obtain information from newspapers in Turkey or even TV channels because the majority of these channels and newspapers are controlled by the government," said Akdeniz. Obliged to reveal identities Under the new legislation, social media platforms will be required to give up the identities of anyone deemed to have fallen foul of the law.
The government argues the proposed legislation is similar to social media controls in other European countries. But the Venice Commission report says such comparisons are false.
"The inspiration from these countries is not relevant because they do not criminalise false information," says Throgeirsdottir. "Although they may apply to internet service providers or online platforms to remove illegal content, this is not a valid comparison with Turkey."
The leaders of Turkey and Russia are continuing to deepen relations as Moscow intensifies its war against Ukraine. Their frequent meetings and close ties fuel concerns among Turkey's Western allies that Ankara is circumventing sanctions against Russia.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, last week for the fourth time in as many months.
Erdogan and Putin smiled and greeted one another with a warm handshake. Their latest encounter was on Thursday in Astana, Kazakhstan, on the sidelines of the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia.
Speaking to reporters afterwards, Erdogan said he wants to build on the success of a United Nations-brokered deal that allows Ukrainian grain blockaded by Russian naval forces to enter world markets.
First shipment of Ukrainian grain sets sail for Africa
Ankara played a pivotal role in assisting the United Nations to broker the grain deal between Ukraine and Russia, known as the Istanbul agreement.
"Turkey is determined to strengthen and continue the grain exports under the Istanbul agreement and the transfer of Russian grain and fertilizer to less developed countries via Turkey," Erdogan said.
But Putin criticized the deal's implementation, claiming countries in need are not benefiting from the agreement.
The deal comes up for renewal next month.
Turkish Russia analyst Galip Dalay of London's Chatham House says the Ukrainian grain deal is seen as a vindication by Erdogan of his policy of maintaining close ties with Putin.
"The role Turkey can play is very much contingent upon having a working relationship with Russia. The Ukrainian grain deal is one of them. Turkey can play a more humanitarian role down the road or a more diplomatic role. All of them require Turkey to have some sort of functional relationship with Moscow as well," said Dalay.
"So to some extent, it is it is accepted that Turkey is engaging in one way or another in some form of a balanced policy towards Russia and on the war. And I submit to some extent there are good outcomes that are coming out of these, such as the grain deals," he added. Sanctions-busting? Stressing the need to maintain close ties with Moscow, Ankara refuses to enforce Western sanctions against Russia.
The European Union, in a report released last week, strongly criticized Ankara for not enforcing sanctions and warned that European companies could use Turkey to circumvent the restrictions. Washington has also voiced concern.
Turkey's ambiguous application of United Nations' sanctions on Russia
"There is great potential for development. Trade figures have increased," said Turkish analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners.
"The potential stems from two factors. Obviously, for a lot of European companies, the legal way to bypass sanctions is to set up in Turkey and then to re-export through Turkey. And for Russian companies, of course, they can source from Turkey as well as possibly evade sanctions," Yesilada said.
"I'm not saying all trade is because of sanctions evasion, but the fact that there's deep animosity between Europe, the United States, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other hand, of course affects commercial relations and potentially Turkey could be the winner." 'Dividing Europe' Such complaints are likely to grow with Putin this week repeating a suggestion to use Turkey as a hub for distributing Russian gas that was originally intended for Europe.
Erdogan on Friday confirmed that Turkey was ready to participate in the project. Ankara is trying to negotiate a cut-price gas deal from Moscow.
[[[TEXT MISSING?
says Putin is seeking to create divisions among his western adversaries and is finding a willing partner in Erdogan. Erdogan has not commented on the proposal. But with Ankara trying to negotiate a cut price gas deal from Moscow.]]] Erdogan tells government to start work on Russian gas hub "For Putin, the relationship with Turkey is important [because] it's about dividing Europe," said senior strategist Timothy Ash of Bluebay Asset Management. "Turkey is a key Nato member. The more he can pull Erdogan and Turkey away from the West, that's all the better. "
"For Erdogan, he's got elections due by June of next year, and he's got a very difficult balance of payments issue. And he thinks by helping Russia get around sanctions, he thinks Turkey can earn key balance of payment receipts, and that will help," added Ash.
Ankara denies it is sanctions-busting. But observers say Erdogan is walking an increasingly fine line by looking to keep close ties with Russia, knowing at the same time that his dealings with Moscow could trigger retaliation from the US and Europe in the form of secondary sanctions.
Tensions between Greece and Turkey are spreading across the Mediterranean from Libya to the divided island of Cyprus. The risk of a confrontation is threatening to draw in fellow Nato allies.
The Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu this week announced in Tripoli the signing of a memorandum with Libya's government of national unity for the joint exploration of hydrocarbon reserves in Libya's offshore waters and national territory
Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias swiftly challenged the agreement's legitimacy, claiming it infringed on Greek waters.
Turkey's deepening economic and military ties with the Libyan government is the latest point of tension between Athens and Ankara.
Moreover, relations between the Nato partners are becoming increasingly fraught, mainly because of territorial disputes.
These conflicts are now putting ties between the United States and Turkey under pressure.
"The ones standing with the Greeks just for the sake of pleasing the Greeks should not expect friendship from us," warned Cavusoglu.
"Because Turkey will not bow down to such acts. Turkey will take necessary steps in Cyprus."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had earlier announced that Turkey would increase its military presence in Cyprus after Washington lifted its military arms embargo on the Greek Cypriot administration.
On Friday, Erdogan declared that military drones had been deployed on Cyprus.
The Mediterranean Island has been divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities since 1974.
The Greek Cypriot administration is the only internationally recognised government.
Washington's action comes as State Department spokesman Ned Price appeared to offer support to Athens amid rising tensions with Ankara over Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. Don't inflame tensions in the islands "Greece's sovereignty over these islands is not in question. But we call on countries, including our allies, to respect territorial integrity and sovereignty and avoid actions that inflame tensions," said Price.
Ankara has condemned Greece's militarisation of some of its islands close to Turkish shores, which Turkey claims violate an international agreement. Athens insists it is protecting its territory from Turkish threats.
Political scientist Cengiz Aktar of the University of Athens says the Greek government is calculating that it has Washington's support and is in no mood to back down from what it considers Turkish bullying.
"There is a common wisdom in Greece, don't belittle small countries. We have a live example of Ukraine and Russia.
"I mean, yes, the Greeks are ready," said political scientist Cengiz Aktar of the University of Athens.
Athens insists its militarisation of the islands is in response to the threat posed by Turkey, whose military forces, in many cases, are less than a kilometer distant from Greek islands.
Athanasios Drougos, a defense analyst at Greece's War College, warns that Ankara's hardening stance will lead to a stronger response from Athens. The Greek right of self defence "The Greek position is based on the right of self defence.
"I would say there are some provocative military exercises, some drills, they bother Greece quite a lot.
"So, for the time being, I can tell you there is no option for Greece to demilitarise the islands,"
Greek and Turkish warplanes routinely challenge one another in disputed airspace over the Aegean Sea.
Both are continuing to build up their military presence. On Thursday, Erdogan reiterated his threat to the Greek militarised islands.
"This applies to Greece and any country that disturbs us and attacks us. Our response to them is: 'We may suddenly arrive one night.' They should be aware of this and understand this," said Erdogan.
Turkish-Greek tensions are nothing new. The two edged to the brink of war in 1996 over an uninhabited islet.
US intervention prevented open hostilities. But with Turkey saying Greece is using US-supplied weapons to militarise its islands, observers say Washington's status as an honest broker is in question.
Turkish-US relations are already strained over Erodgan's ties with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and doubts over Turkey's loyalty to Nato.
On Friday, the two leaders held talks by phone to discuss deepening ties. Region moving closer to war Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow of the Brookings Institution, a Washington research group, says she is worried the region is moving closer to war.
"We are used to occasional flare-ups in this relationship, but I think right now, the global environment is very uncertain, chaotic, and almost conducive to a military confrontation between Turkey and Greece," said Aydintasbas.
"The dynamics have changed," she added.
"Turkey no longer feels a strong and firm member of the western camp or NATO alliance. It is still NATO, but obviously also interested in having alternatives. And Turkey is also a whole lot more self-confident than it used to be. Meanwhile, Greece feels that there's been a big change in Greece as well," said Aydintasbas.
For now, neither Athens nor Ankara appears ready to step back. Cavusoglu said last month that Turkey was prepared to resolve tensions diplomatically but warned the country wouldn't hesitate to use hard power if diplomacy failed and Turkish interests were threatened.
One of Turkey's leading pop stars, Gulsen, dubbed the Turkish Madonna, is facing jail as a crackdown on pop music intensifies. The crackdown is seen as an attempt by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan to court his religious base as elections loom amid youth dissatisfaction at economic malaise.
Drawing thousands, Gulsen regularly performs at sell-out concerts. Her music, her outfits, and her support of LGBTQ rights, has seen her widely dubbed the "Turkish Madonna".
But Gulsen ended up in court and jail when a video of a private joke denigrating religious schools went public on social media.
"Gulsen has become a target for Islamists for a long time not just because of the way she appears in her shows but also for her support for LGBT movements," said sociologist Nazli Okten of Galatasaray University, an expert on popular culture. Gulsen jailed But Gulsen's jailing sparked outrage, with football supporters even singing her songs in support.
The US State Department also expressed concern over her detention. Public pressure saw her released, but she still faces prison if convicted of inciting religious hatred.
Erdogan addressing his supporters strongly backed Gulsen's prosecution. With elections less than a year away and lagging in the polls, Erodgan is seeking to rally his religious base. Outrage as Turkish courts seek to silence anti-femicide campaigners This summer, Turkish authorities have also banned music festivals across Turkey, hitting the industry hard.
"There is big money turning around these festivals, not only for the artists but people working behind the scene," said Ipek Kocyigit, head of Turkey's Musicians Union.
"I know there were 20 festivals canceled recently, which is a big number," added Kocyigit.
"These 20 festivals were canceled for what? For the ethnic identity or the political view of the artist or for the way of dressing of a female singer." Pop music Pop music festivals often drawing tens of thousands have spread to Turkey's more conservative regions. The result of the success of Erdogan's massive expansion of universities, from 78 to over 200 institutions argues Okten.
"The number of universities are going up, the scene in the cities is also changing with not also with the coming of university students," she said.
"Also these university students are changing their lives, because they are independent, they are not living with the family, they are not living in this traditional environment, they have a different kind of liberties.
"These gatherings (concerts) become a kind of not just for symbolising a different way of life, but also at the end of these concerts people sometimes there are slogans. There is a tone; there is a sharing of discontent." Tensions rise between Greece and Turkey over island military bases With elections due next year and near hundred percent inflation, young voters who've known only Erdogan as a ruler pose his most significant threat says pollster Can Selcuki, of Istanbul Economics Research.
"This young group of people aged between 18 to 30 is growing becoming adults into an age where they are highly indebted, they have very little wealth accumulation, and they are finding it increasingly difficult to look into the future and be hopeful. So they have sort of have this resentment to the current system," Selcuki said.
"An overwhelming majority of young people in Turkey prefer a pluralistic democratic system to a strong one-man system," Selcuki added, "The second good piece of news is that over 80% prioritize freedom of expression above all."
Gulsen is due in court in October, where she faces up to three years in jail.
While such a move is likely to be welcomed by Erdogan's conservative base, it could also risk further alienating an increasingly disaffected youth as elections loom.
Turkey's plastic recycling industry has been harshly criticised in a Human Rights Watch report that highlights health problems for workers and residents who live near processing plants. The report also attacks the European Union, for which Turkey is the primary plastics recycler.
In an 88-page report, the New York-based Human Rights Watch accused Turkey's plastic recycling industry of threatening workers' lives.
"Plastics contain toxic chemical additives, things like dioxins and phthalates that can cause cancer," said Krista Shennum, author of the report, "The reproductive system is harmed. as well as short-term health impacts like asthma and skin ailments, things like that."
"We documented that there is quite a bit of child labour in plastic recycling facilities." Added Shennum, "despite legal protection for children working in such hazardous conditions, as well as lots of migrants and refugees working in plastics recycling facilities without adequate protection."
In Istanbul's Bayrampasa district, the heart of the city's recycling industry, the air is thick with chemicals used in recycle plastic. Residential apartment blocks surround the factories, there is a hospital nearby, while children play in a local park.
The Human Rights Watch report says most plastic recycling factories are located in Istanbul and Adana, two of Turkey's most densely populated cities.
"The factories and houses are located side by side," explained local Sedef Kurt, "We spent a lot of time in the noise, the smell, the filth. This is how our childhood passed. I am 34, and I now have problems with my lungs." Strict regulations, strictly enforced The recycling industry maintains that strict regulations are enforced to protect both workers and residents.
Dr Salih Kanbak of the Turkish Recycling Association admits that such criticism may have been warranted in the past, but insists the industry has cleaned up its act. Kanbak claims strict monitoring is enforced on the plastics imported for recycling and the factories processing them.
"There are some extreme regulations in the last legislation," said Kanbak, speaking of laws which date from 2021. "We are also having inspectors not only from the Environment Ministry but also from the other ministries as well.
"They give no warning before they visit. We see them at the door; we are here to check your company," he added. "They will discover if there are children working, which is not legitimate. If they are making illicit or illegitimate recycling, we would like to know their names so we can eradicate them from the system because this is very important."
But the Human Rights Watch Report claims the regulations are often not enforced and that there aren't enough regulators. Where inspections occur, the report claims that the factories receive advanced warnings in many cases. So far, the government has not responded to the report. A booming sector of the Turkish economy The Turkish recycling industry is booming, supporting over one million people. After China ended importing plastic for recycling, Turkey became the European Union's primary plastics recycler.
"Since 2018, when the Chinese government banned it, banned plastic waste, roughly 450,000 tons from the EU has been sent to Turkey each year," said Shennum
Human Right Watch said the EU has the responsibility to those recycling Europes waste. "We'll be following up with decision-makers in the EU to kind of push them to have stronger regulations to respect the rights of people who are in countries impacted by European waste exports," said Shennum.
Plastic recycling is a central part of environmental efforts for a greener world. But, according to Human Rights Watch, many among Turkey's most vulnerable are paying the price for that aspiration.
Tensions continue to escalate between Turkey and Greece over territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea. In the past, such tensions have been defused by US or European leaders, but this time there are fears they could be distracted by the Ukraine conflict.
Addressing supporters earlier this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a fiery speech against Greece, accusing it of threatening Turkey with its militarisation of islands close to Turkish shores and promising to respond.
"We don't care about you occupying the islands," Erdogan said, referring to Greek Aegean islands with military bases. "When the time, the hour, comes, we will do what is necessary. Like we always say: we may come suddenly one night." The nationalist crowd cheered.
Ankara claims Athens's building of military bases violates an international agreement that stipulates some Aegean islands should remain demilitarised. Athens says it's only protecting its people from the growing Turkish military threat. 'More than the usual tit-for-tat' Greece and Turkey are no strangers to tensions, but some analysts warn this time could be worryingly different.
"I think this is significant and potentially very dangerous. It's quite a bit more than the usual tit-for-tat we're used to in terms of political accusations by both side," warned Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow of the Washington-based Brookings Institute think tank.
"Clearly, both sides feel the other country is a threat. We are seeing Turkey and Greece accusing each other of airspace violations, but also Turkey accusing Greece of building military bases and arming the Greek islands that are adjacent to mainland Turkey, and Greece accusing Turkey of questioning Greek sovereignty over the islands. Potentially these are dangerous accusations."
Turkish and Greek forces went to the verge of war in 1996 over the contested uninhabited islet of Imia, or Kardak in Turkish. In the last few years, Athens has embarked on a major rearmament programme that has closed the military gap with Turkey, emboldening Greece to stand up to Turkish threats.
"A madness can happen anytime, like in Imia, way back in the '90s. Of course it won't last, but they are prepared for this possibility," said Cengiz Aktar of Athens University. "They are taking all the necessary military, political, diplomatic measures to make sure that nothing will happen."
Greece has powerful diplomatic allies. French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged full support to Athens. The two countries have recently developed strong military ties. Greece takes delivery of first Rafale jets from France Greece and US expand defence pact as tensions mount between Turkey and Europe The United States, building a series of bases across Greece, has also criticized Ankara's stance. A useful distraction? Erdogan, who's facing a difficult re-election next year with the Turkish economy in trouble, is accused of seeking to provoke a crisis with Greece to distract the electorate.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis also goes to the polls next year and, like Erdogan, faces a challenging election, embroiled in a scandal over the phone tapping of political opponents.
"There will always be potential for politicians on both sides to exploit those issues, either in promoting their national interests or promoting their personal political interests at home," said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "Because this much tension probably will help them domestically."
Yet "crossing the threshold may lead to unintended consequences and Erdogan especially cannot afford to deal with the unintended consequences of an escalation with Greece in such a critical period of time," Guvenc added. France condemns Erdogan's 'provocative' two-state comments on Cyprus Turkey risks slipping off diplomatic tightrope as tensions between Russia and Ukraine grow Analysts warn that any confrontation would almost inevitably trigger European Union sanctions against Turkey, dealing a hammer blow to its weakened economy.
But for now, neither Athens nor Ankara appear ready to step back, with their evenly matched militaries facing off across the Aegean Sea. Overshadowed by Ukraine Analyst Aydintasbas says that in the past, similar tensions were defused by the diplomatic intervention of the US or a European leader. But this time, she says, they may be distracted.
"There are no interlocutors; in Europe and the US, they're focused on the war in Ukraine and in containing Russian aggression. You don't also have a dedicated US role.
"I'm old enough to remember [US diplomat] Richard Holbrooke, who stepped in during the Clinton administration and was designated to prevent a similar escalation between Turkey and Greece. I don't see a figure as such, nor do I see a focus from Washington on keeping good neighbourly relations between these two countries. So it's quite problematic that there are no meditators or interlocutors in this current flare-up," said Aydintasbas.
The Turkish-Greek tensions turned fatal this month with the deaths of six refugees, including two babies who drowned in the Aegean while crossing from Turkey to Greece. Turkish authorities accused the Greek coastguard of forcibly sending the refugees back to sea, while Athens blames Ankara for failing to stop the crossings.
With bilateral tensions showing little signs of abating and neither leader seemingly interested in stepping back, the fear is these latest deaths in the Aegean may not be the last.
In many parts of the western Indian state of Rajasthan, child labour is prevalent, with those forced to do menial jobs often victims of trafficking. Handling rescued children is a sensitive process that requires special skills – something the police are looking to improve on.
Rajasthan ranks seventh in India in crimes against children reported between 2018 and 2020. According to the ministry of women and child development, more than 19,000 incidents of crimes against minors were reported during that period.
For children in difficult circumstances, often the first point of contact in the juvenile justice system is the police and they have been criticised for how they interact with rescued children.
But now helped by Unicef, a series of initiatives is creating a more inclusive and inviting atmosphere for children to have a trusting dialogue with police officers.
“There are issues and concerns related to children. Now, police officers are friendly with children and know how to deal with them. Before they were talking to the children as if they were criminals,” said Sindhu Binujeeth, a child protection consultant at Unicef.
Interventions by the One Stop Security workers, who are associated with local police stations to inform the police of problems of children, especially relating with adolescent girls is also helping.
Trained police officers with expertise in child protection also operate alongside these workers.
“We have registered a lot of cases of crimes against children at my police station," said police inspector Hanwant Singh Rajpurohit.
"We have freed a lot of children from child labour and arrested those involved in keeping these children in bonded labour because of the help of these community workers. A humane touch “Children were mostly scared whenever they had to come to a police station," he added.
"But we have child friendly stations with rooms that will provide them with a congenial atmosphere and also help them open up to the police.”
More than 137 such child-friendly police stations have opened up in the Udaipur division of the state.
Despite various laws and schemes to protect the rights of children, bonded labour and trafficking, and sexual abuse is rampant. A large number of tribal children are trafficked from southern Rajasthan bordering north Gujarat, to work as bonded labourers.
Children are trafficked as bonded labour, where physical and sexual abuse at worksites is also not uncommon. Why are Indian women increasingly taking their own lives? Child's murder shows discrimination and violence towards India’s ‘untouchables’ “Awareness that police can be friendly is spreading slowly and surely," said Sheela Sen, a child welfare officer. "The police station has child welfare officers, a critical need in this part of the state, where child labour is rampant."
Sanjay Nirala, a Unicef representative of Rajasthan points out that intensive work is going on in and around the area of child protection and safeguarding of children.
“The situation is improving in terms of child migration, child labour and out of school children," said Nirala. "It has drastically reduced in the last four to five years because of various interventions of the police department, education and other departments.”
These are still early days as the police try to change their image and implement a string of child-centric initiatives.
Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot recently said his government was committed to eradicating offences against children such as sexual violence, child marriage and child labour.
With Turkish Russian trade booming since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna's visit to Turkey this week focused on efforts to further isolate Moscow.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu welcomed Colonna. But behind the diplomatic pleasantries, there are growing concerns in the EU over Ankara's refusal to enforce western sanctions against Moscow.
At a joint press conference with Cavusoglu, Colonna stressed the importance of unity in standing up to Russian aggression.
"The European Union and other partner and allied countries have the same objective: to limit the renewal of the Russian war effort and to make Russia understand that it has chosen a dead end," said Colonna.
"In this context, it is important that as many countries as possible send the same message." Deep financial ties Russian-Turkish trade has surged to record levels since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. Bilateral trade with European countries, which had strong trading ties with Russia, has spiked fuelling suspicions that Turkey is becoming a backdoor to circumvent sanctions.
Turkish-Russian financial ties deepened further, with Moscow depositing five billion dollars in Turkey, ostensibly to aid a Russian company's construction of a nuclear power station in Turkey.
A further 10 billion dollars is reportedly expected in the next few weeks. The infusion of hard currency is a welcome boost for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose 2023 campaign for reelection is dogged by a plunging lira and inflation running at nearly 80 percent.
"By helping Russia get around sanctions, Turkey can earn key balance of payments receipts, and that will help support the lira, write down inflation and help Erdogan win the elections," explained Timothy Ash, a senior strategist with Bluebay Asset Management. 'Black knight' To safeguard his close ties with Vladimir Putin, Erdogan has resisted calls from his western allies to enforce sanctions against Russia. Last month at the Black Sea resort of Sochi, the two leaders discussed further developing trade ties.
Turkey has doubled Russian oil imports since this year's assault on Ukraine. Russian oligarchs continue to moor their yachts in Turkish marinas, knowing that Turkish authorities won't attempt to seize them.
"Turkey has de facto become a black knight. In academic literature, that means a state that is willing to help a sanctioned country, at least to mitigate sanctions," said Maria Shagina, a specialist on international sanctions at the Institute for Strategic Studies.
"And this is where Russia sees Turkey in that light, that it can come in handy in terms of developing its economic ties against the background of Western companies fleeing the country," added Shagina. Grain deal Turkey and the United Nations have brokered a deal to export Ukrainian grain to world markets, and those export operations are based in Istanbul.
Erdogan claims credit for the agreement, saying it was possible only because of his close ties with Putin, relations which analysts suggest are set to deepen. Turkey's Erdogan due in Russia to 'sound out' Putin on Ukraine and Syria "The current Turkish Russian relations have definite bonds with the current war in Ukraine. Ukraine wheat exports is a new chapter for the region, and Turkey plays a quite significant role as an intermediary," said Russia Turkey expert Zaur Gasimov of Bonn University.
"And also close military cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey and the aspect of Turkey not joining the anti-Russian sanctions, all that results in dynamics of importance for Moscow and for Ankara," said Gasimov. Ukraine drone sales Erdogan routinely points out that along with close ties with Putin, Turkish firms continue to sell military drones to Ukraine, weapons which are proving effective against Russian forces. But this balancing act between Ukraine and Russia raises questions about where the Turkish leader's loyalties lie.
In a move interpreted as further stoking questions over Erdogan's loyalties, Putin invited the Turkish leader to this month's meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a Chinese-Russian-led, Eurasian security grouping. Turkey lays the ground for a smoothing of relations with Syria Galip Dalay, a Russia Turkey expert at the London-based Chatham House, says Putin's invitation and regular meetings with Erdogan are part of a broader Russian strategy.
"Putin's telling the international community, 'actually I am not as isolated as the West wants or portrays me to be'," said Dalay.
"So, the symbolism of these meetings, including Erdogan potentially joining the Shanghai Cooperation meeting in Uzbekistan, the symbolism is more important than the substance." High technology Analysts warn that Putin may seek to further leverage Erdogan's relationship and growing financial dependency on Russia to circumvent Western technology sanctions, putting Ankara on a collision course with its allies.
"To me, the game-breaker is high technology," warned Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners, "If I understand it correctly, both in a civilian area and in a military area, Russia is denied high technology that is really hitting their supply lines.
"If Turkish companies are used to import proscribed items to reexport to Russia, that will blow the game open, and Turkey will be sanctioned," added Yesilada.
In a sign that Turkey's western allies are losing patience, the US Treasury sent a letter to Turkey this month bluntly warning Turkish businesses of the financial dangers of trading with sanctioned Russian companies.
With Turkey's economy in a weak state, sanctions could trigger a devastating economic crisis. At the same time, analysts say Erdogan is placing his bets on Russia in the hope that Russian trade and support will revitalise his nation's economy ahead of next year's elections.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a strong opponent of the Syrian regime, says his country could be ready for dialogue with Damascus. It's a prospect that's causing alarm in the ranks of the Syrian opposition that relies heavily on Turkish support.
Since the onset of the Syrian civil war, Erdogan routinely targeted his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al Assad as a tyrant, devil, and butcher, pledging that he would pay for what he calls his atrocities against his people.
But this month, Erdogan is singing a different tune. Referring to his nation's relations with the Syrian regime, the Turkish leader told reporters: "Political dialogue and diplomacy cannot be cut off between states."
Ankara severed its diplomatic ties with the Assad government at the start of the civil war. Erdogan has played a leading role in backing the opposition in its bid to oust Assad from power. But Turkey is now looking to return millions of Syrian refugees. Talk of 'peace' Earlier this month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed he had recently held talks with his Syrian counterpart.
"I had a brief chat with the Syrian foreign minister on the sidelines of a meeting, telling him that Turkey believes there will be peace between the Assad regime and the opposition and that Turkey is ready to help in such circumstances," Cavusoglu said.
Syrian rebels angrily protested, burning Turkish flags as they got news of the discussion between the Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers.
"It's terrible news for the Syrian opposition," said Galip Dalay, a Turkey analyst at Chatham House.
"Because of the trouble they were facing, they were already more and more turning into Turkey's proxies, and now that will be basically the nail in the coffin of the Syrian opposition.
"But some of the groups there might also be decoupling between Turkey and some of the Syrian opposition groups." Syrian Kurds Analysts say Erdogan could be looking for rapprochement with Damascus to get rid of Syrian Kurdish forces of the YPG from its border.
Ankara accuses the YPG of having links to an insurgency inside Turkey. "From our perspective, we need to feel secure definitely," said Omer Onhon, Turkey's last ambassador to Syria.
Erdogan is also facing mounting public pressure over the millions of Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey. But Onhon says Ankara needs to be cautious in its dealings with Damascus. Kurdish PKK fighters may retreat to Iran as Turkish military closes in "We need to see that Syria is secure for the return of Syrians in Turkey and in other countries. So, the regime has to prove that they are sincere in seeking a real political solution. But up to now, this is not the case," said Onhon.
But time may not be on Erdogan's side. He faces reelection next year and is languishing in the polls, with many voters citing the presence of Syrian refugees as one of his most significant election liabilities. Moscow a player The hand of Moscow, which has long backed the Assad regime, could also be a factor in Erdogan's deliberations, says analyst Dalay.
"This is precisely in line with the Russian vision of Syria," said Dalay.
"The core of it is that Turkey needs to engage Damascus. That the road to Turkey's concerns in Syria goes through Damascus, so that's the message that Putin and Russia have been sending to Turkey.
"How Turkey will follow through is a big question because Turkey has a significant military presence there (Syria). How Turkish voters are beating internet press clampdown before polls "So, Syria would insist on the withdrawal of the Turkish presence from Syria. And this is a very difficult position in terms of foreign and domestic policy. "
Assad has repeatedly called for the unconditional withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory — Ankara controls a large swathe of Syrian territory along the Turkish border, seized in its fight against the Kurdish YPG group.
It's a demand the Syrian president could make face-to-face with Erdogan in September when both leaders are invited to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
A game of cat and mouse between Turkish internet users and the authorities in Ankara is intensifying ahead of looming polls. According to rights groups, Turkey ranks among the world's worst for press freedom. But years of censorship and control are creating a population increasingly adept at bypassing such restrictions.
Every day, Ali Ergin Demirhan, the editor of the news website sendika.org goes through a thick file of outstanding court orders and attempts at blocking his sites.
Engaged since 2015 in legal battles, he's not surprised that the country's media regulator has blocked access to the websites of Deutsche Welle and Voice of America's Turkish Service.
"This censorship, especially on the internet, increased in Turkey in the 2010s," said Demirihan, "2015 was a turning point; access to our internet site sendika.org was blocked for the first time, along with 107 other websites."
RTUK, Turkey's media regulator, obtained a court order blocking access to DW and VOA Turkish in late June. The two international broadcasters had refused to comply with the regulator's request to apply for a license. Turkey ranks with China and Iran for banning sites.
Although Ankara blocks thousands of websites, internet users here have become skilled at circumventing bans.
"For the past 15 years, the government has introduced 18 changes to the internet law," explains Fusun Nebil, a technology consultant.
"All these changes were attempts to ban or close sites because previous efforts had failed. Turkish people have learned how to avoid these bans. Not only the young but also older people are becoming increasingly sophisticated at circumventing bans, such as using web proxies," added Nebil.
Other tools to get around restrictions include the Tor browser, which protects a user's identity and location. And Virtual private networks, or VPNs, create a secure private connection between a computer and the internet to get around government blocks.
With a VPN it's very easy; claims Atilla Yesilada, a political analyst at GlobalSource Partners, a geopolitical research company.
"For a while, right after the coup attempt, the government tried to ban all VPNs, and that ban is still formally in effect. But VPN is not only for people who want to access different information but for businesses. So the ban is not strictly enforced. There are dozens of VPN companies one can easily access. I pay $4 a month," continued Yesilada. Change the domain name, slip the ban DW and VOA Turkish are still available on Twitter and YouTube. Social media platforms are increasingly vital for circumventing bans, and simple tricks are used, like minor changes to domain names, such as adding a number, a method employed by VOA.
Turkish web users and providers are engaged in a cat and mouse game with the authorities. A game which, for now, the government appears to be losing. "There will always be a way around it," said Yaman Akdeniz is, a cyber expert and co-founder of Turkey's Freedom Expression society.
"Some anti-government websites or news providers, especially Kurdish media, are constantly changing domain names. And every new website subject to a blocking order, they change the name, so they adapt," added Akdeniz. "If It's not changing domain names, they go on Facebook, they go on Instagram, they go on Twitter, and YouTube, you have to be there."
Turkey's media regulator says access to VOA and DW will be restored if they get licenses. But both broadcasters say this could allow the Turkish government to censor content. Such fears are well-founded, says Demirhan of sendika. With presidential and parliamentary elections due by next June and the government trailing far behind in the polls, Demirhan says the crackdown is increasing.
We have been blocked 64 times, that's a record, says Demirhan. "They select certain journalists and media outlets on the basis that they are disseminating information that the government doesn't want, and they get punished and blocked," he added.
The US and Germany have condemned the blocking of broadcasters. But Ankara insists the rule of law is essential in a democracy.
This diplomatic row is one that many in Turkey can still follow on DW and VOA, thanks to cleverly sidestepping the government ban.
Ankara is claiming a breakthrough in efforts to release trapped Ukrainian grain to world markets as global food prices soar. The breakthrough came after Wednesday's four-way talks between Russian, Ukrainian, United Nations, and Turkish officials in Istanbul.
Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar said that Wednesday's talks opened the door to a deal that will release millions of tonnes of trapped Ukrainian grain in a statement.
Agreement this month?
Akar said an agreement could be concluded as early as later this month, saying Turkey would play a pivotal role in the proposed agreement for joint controls for checking shipments in harbors and guaranteeing the safety of Black Sea export routes.
The Turkish defense minister said a coordination center with Ukraine, Russia, and United Nations for exporting grain would also be set up in Turkey. United Nations Secretary-General Guterres cautiously welcomed the breakthrough.
"More technical work will now be needed to materialize today's progress. But the momentum is clear," said Guterres.
Trust is the main stumbling block to months of diplomatic efforts to reach a deal. Kyiv fears if it de mines its ports to allow cargo ships to export grain, Russian forces would take advantage and attack.
"This food corridor would require the Ukrainians to remove mines from seaports. They were put there for a reason to keep Russians from invading their country, "said Aaron Stein of Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute. Russia and Turkey discuss grain blocked in black sea ports Grain shortfall from Ukraine war exacerbates food insecurity in Africa Poor countries to be hit hardest as Ukraine war threatens global food crisis France urges food security crisis plan to avoid famine stoked by Ukraine war International sanctions
Stein also warned international sanctions on Russia are also an obstacle to any deal. "there is no appetite whatsoever to lift sanctions, and that is the Russian demand, and that is not going to happen," said Stein.
But following Wednesday's talks, Washington announced its sanctions would not target any Russian grain exports that were part of a deal to get grain exported from the Black Sea. Moscow welcomed what it called the "goodwill gesture."
The UN is warning unless tens of millions of grain trapped in Ukrainian ports is not released, world food prices will continue to soar, threatening famines across the globe. Ukraine is the world's leading grain supplier, with Africa especially heavily dependent.
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyir said they're determined to reach a deal, "We are indeed putting a significant effort into resuming the supply of food to the world market. And I am grateful to the United Nations and Turkey for their respective efforts."
The progress at the Istanbul talks has underlined Turkey's position as a critical facilitator in negotiations between the warring parties.
"President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been careful to highlight that Turkey wants to maintain relations with both sides," said Sinan Ulgen of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a research organization in Istanbul.
"So, as a result of this balanced policy, Turkey has been trying to carve out a space for diplomatic influence as a facilitator or potentially as a mediator," added Ulgen.
Ankara's diplomatic success
Ankara's apparent diplomatic success comes at a good time, facing mounting criticism over its refusal to enforce international sanctions on Russia.
In June, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, accused Turkish companies of buying stolen Ukraine grain.
Kyiv was further angered when Turkish authorities released a Russian-flagged ship that Ukraine claimed was carrying stolen grain. However, international media continue to report grain from Russian-occupied Ukraine is being imported by Turkey.
Ankara vehemently denies the accusations, with Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying any charge is taken seriously.
"We are taking all claims seriously and investigating them in a very serious way. And share the outcome with the Ukrainian side all the time," said Cavusoglu.
But to facilitate Russian tourists, which Turkey relies heavily upon, Turkish banks joined Russia's Mir payment system, which Moscow is using to circumvent a ban on international credit cards.
Such moves are adding to broader concerns over Turkey's role in financial sanction busting. Timothy Ash is with Bluebay Asset Management and says Ankara sees a financial opportunity.
"The Turks kind of think, well, we can't afford to join the sanctions regime, and I have heard from the various (Turkish) government officials that they potentially see this as an opportunity to make money, actually," said Ash.
"They argue like the Iran sanctions, brokering sanctions can see Turkey win important foreign exchange earnings. So I think there is nervous about that in the west," he added.
Secondary sanctions
In June, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo visited Ankara to discuss enforcing Russian sanctions. Analysts warn Turkey could be vulnerable to secondary sanctions by Washington.
But Ankara insists enforcing sanctions would jeopardize its mediation efforts between Kyiv and Moscow. Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations, says, for now, Turkey's western allies appear ready to give Ankara the benefit of the doubt.
"There is an acceptance among western allies that Turkey is involved in this balancing act that it's not going to cut off relations with Russia.
That it is going to do this strategic balancing between Russia and the west," said Aydintasbas, "And because Turkey is so geopolitically important at the Black Sea, with the Turkish straits, there is tolerance."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has close ties with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts. Before Wednesday Istanbul talks on Ukrainian grain, Erdogan spoke with Zelenskiy.
While Tuesday (July 19), the Turkish president, is scheduled to meet face to face with Vladimir Putin in Tehran. A meeting that could prove key to finalizing any deal to get Ukrainian grain back onto world markets.
Violent attacks on Muslims by Hindu nationalists has been on the rise since Prime Minister Narender Modi was elected prime minister in 2014.
In the last couple of months alone, dozens of Muslim properties have been demolished in “anti-encroachment” drives by bulldozers in New Delhi and in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ruled states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.
While officials say the demolitions only target illegal buildings, rights groups and critics say they are an attempt to harass and marginalise Muslims, pointing to a wave of rising religious polarisation under Modi’s rule. Rightwing Hindus accused of rising hate speech against Indian MuslimsIncreasing attacks They have pointed to a worsening pattern of violence against the Muslim community in India, which makes up 14 percent of the country’s 1.3 billion population.
“The government thrives on the politics of hate. It wanted to send a clear message to its core constituency of hard-line Hindus that it had not deviated from its path of othering the Muslims,” said Navaid Hamid, president of All India Muslim Majlis-e-Mushawarat (AIMMM), an umbrella body of over a dozen leading Muslim organizations,
“That is why it resorted to bulldozing houses."
“It marks a moment in time where you are seeing a transition from a sort of fragile, flawed democracy… transitioning brazenly into a criminal fascist Hindu enterprise,” said prize winning author, Arundhati Roy.
In the past few years, Muslims have been targeted for their food or clothing, or over inter-religious marriages.
More recently, Muslim girls wearing a hijab were banned from entering their classrooms in the southern state of Karnataka, governed by the BJP. The courts also upheld the decision of the government.
Earlier this month, unrest spread in several Indian states after controversial remarks were made by senior members of the ruling BJP about the Islamic prophet Muhammed. Spate of Hindu-Muslim communal violence has India on edgeRising Islamophobia The demonstrations turned violent in some states as people damaged property. Authorities were criticised for a heavy-handed response as they demolished three Muslim-owned houses in Uttar Pradesh, alleging that they had been illegally constructed that were denied by the owners.
BJP spokesperson Tom Vadakkan said the protests were part of an "orchestrated program" with a specific game plan.
"There are elements who want to disrupt the social fabric of the country and they need to be isolated so that the development agenda can progress," said Vadakkan.
The scope and intensity of the clashes have alarmed members of the community.
“Of course, there is anguish and it is unfortunate that we have to see all this,” said Abdul Majid, an IT professional.
“But the scale and the vehemence with which it is happening now…this is alarming. That is not the way societies progress.”
While Muslims have been feeling under threat since the BJP came to power, hostility towards this community has become even more overt.
The changed climate in India’s famously argumentative democracy has come into sharp focus.
Turkey is at the centre of efforts to get millions of tonnes of grain from blocked Ukrainian ports onto world markets, to alleviate scarcity and curb soaring food prices. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Turkey this week for talks on the creation of a Black Sea corridor to facilitate the flow of grain.
Not long ago, ships carrying Ukrainian grain to global markets were a regular sight sailing through Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway. But not anymore.
With Russia's naval blockade of Ukraine – the world's fifth-largest grain supplier – prices are hitting record levels, threatening turmoil.
"In Lebanon in 2020, wheat imports were 75 percent from Ukraine," points out Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"If you want to go buy wheat right now, you will pay lots of money, and maybe you won't even find it. So, in a country like Lebanon where there is already a financial crisis, you will have a major crisis.
"A couple of years ago, pitta price in Egypt went up like 3 euro cents or something, and there were street protests. So this crisis has the potential to evolve." Appeals to respond The threat of a global food crisis is prompting some NATO countries to call for intervention. Discussions Wednesday between Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, focused in part on creating a Black Sea corridor to allow Ukrainian grain to access world markets.
Ankara says such a deal would avert the risk of confrontation between NATO and Russia, given Russia's strong naval presence in the Black Sea.
"They have eight or ten submarines in the Black Sea and battleships," claims Mesut Casin, a Turkish Presidential advisor. "These battleships can fire cruise missiles. If they fire, what can we do? That time should be Nato Russia war; this is a big danger." How shutting Russia out of Turkish airspace will curb Moscow's influence in Middle East But Ankara talks Wednesday between the Turkish and Russian foreign ministers saw little progress in opening up a Black Sea grain corridor.
A key issue remains the removal of mines protecting the Ukrainian-held port of Odesa. Lavrov speaking at a joint press conference in Ankara, said it was down to Kyiv to resolve the situation.
"To solve this problem, the only thing needed is for the Ukrainians to let vessels out of their ports, either by de-mining them or by marking out safe corridors. Nothing more is required," said Lavrov.
But before removing the grain, Kyiv is looking for security guarantees that Russian forces won't launch an amphibious operation against the vital port of Odesa. Lavrov pledged Russia wouldn't attack, but Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, dismissed the offer as "empty words." Grain crisis 'leverage' There is skepticism over Russia's commitment to easing the grain crisis, with analysts saying Moscow could be using it as leverage. Lavrov even claimed soaring wheat prices have little to do with the Ukrainian conflict.
If Ukrainian grain remains trapped, analysts say Ankara will face growing pressure to give NATO warships access to the Black Sea through Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway, which Turkey administers under the international Montreux Convention.
"Technically and legally, the straits are closed to the warships of the two belligerents, Ukraine and Russia," said Serhat Guvenc, professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. "The others, Turkey has asked them kindly not to send any warships." Turkey threatens to dash Swedish, Finnish hopes of quick NATO entry "So, at one point, Turkey will be presented with a demand either by NATO or a NATO member to send warships into the war. Turkey's options are really narrowing in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war," continued Guvenc.
But Mustafa Aydin, president of the International Relations Council of Turkey, a research organization in Istanbul, says Turkey is determined to prevent new protagonists from entering the Black Sea and expanding the war.
"It also does not want to see an escalation of the insecurity situation by bringing in new forces like the NATO forces to balance the Russians because the calculation is that that would inevitably create a more dangerous situation for all Turkish security and also for the regional security," said Aydin.
Ankara is also well aware of how much Moscow wants to keep the Bosphorus closed to NATO ships, giving Turkey powerful leverage over Russia.
Turkey is increasing pressure on Russia's military presence in Syria with the closure of its airspace to Russian planes flying over Syrian airspace and restricting its warships from using Turkish waters.
Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has given no reason for closing its airspace to Russian civilian and military planes carrying troops flying to Syria, other than saying the decision will be reviewed in July.
Ankara and Moscow back rival sides in the Syrian civil war but have been cooperating in trying to resolve the conflict.
Some analysts suggest, however, the move should be seen through the prism of Turkey's shared opposition with its Western allies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has brought it closer to Washington and its NATO partners after years of concern over Turkey's deepening ties with Russia.
"It's an important decision [restricting Russian supply of Syria]. Turkish-American relations have improved dramatically in this respect. Probably the Americans bilaterally and NATO as an institution insisted upon it," said Huseyin Bagci, head of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute in Ankara, "Trying to close the increasing influence of Russia in Syria and in the Middle East in general. It is, of course, not a decision the Russians would like to see." Moscow fears supply routes will be compromised Turkish airspace offers the easiest route for Russian planes supplying its military bases in Syria.
"To maintain the airbase in Syria, of course, they fly over the Turkish airspace and are of importance for Russia," points outs Zaur Gasimov, a Russian expert at Bonn University.
But the closure of Turkish airspace will stoke fears in Moscow that Ankara is cooperating with Washington to cut off Russian supply routes to Syria.
According to Gasimov: "Russia can use the airspace of Iraq and of Iran to reach their military bases in Syria. It's possible that Washington urges pressure on Baghdad to close its airspace."
Russia's supplying of its military forces in Syria is already complicated by Ankara's decision to limit the use of Turkish waters by Russian warships based in the Black Sea under the international Montreux Convention. Turkey threatens to dash Swedish, Finnish hopes of quick NATO entry Turkey's ambiguous application of United Nations' sanctions on Russia The convention allows Turkey to impose restrictions if a war occurs among Black Sea countries.
Russian Black Sea ports were, until Ankara imposed the controls, the main supply route supplying Russian forces in Syria.
"Russia was using the Turkish straits to supply its campaign in Syria, and we used to see multiple ships in a week, both Russian Navy - usually landing ships, carrying goods and ships, were transiting Turkish straits to go to Syria," says Yoruk Isik, an Istanbul based geopolitical analyst with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"And now all those ships disappear. Only two ships pass in the entire last month. And we are talking about usually four or five ships were passing per week," Isik added. Moscow's 'balancing act' over Turkey's energy supply Analysts note that Moscow retains powerful leverage over Ankara, with Turkey heavily dependent on Russian energy.
And any assault by Russian forces on Syrian rebels holed-up on the Turkish border could trigger an exodus of refugees into Turkey.
But the Ukrainian conflict is seen as severely curtailing Russian influence.
"The room for Russian maneouvering vis-a-vis Ankara got very limited," says Gasimov.
"Turkey is one of the countries which still didn't join the anti-Russian sanctions. It's very important for Moscow to maintain the dialogue with those countries and not to augment the ranks and numbers of countries who join the sanctions," he concluded.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vowing to crush the presence of the Kurdish militant group PKK in Iraq. But as the Turkish military closes in on the group, some analysts predict its fighters could turn to Iran, with implications across the region.
Turkish forces, backed by jets and drones, are driving the PKK Kurdish militant group from its bases across Iraqi Kurdistan. For decades, the mountainous region has provided the PKK a sanctuary to launch attacks in its battle for greater minority rights across the border in Turkey.
With Erdogan claiming to have the support of local Iraqi Kurdish forces, the PKK's once deemed impregnable headquarters in the Qandil mountains is now the target of Turkish troops.
"The politicians have to speak with symbols," said Aydin Selcen, the former head of Turkey's consulate in Iraqi Kurdistan.
"When you say Qandil is our ultimate target or aim, whatever, it means that the ultimate step is to stop the PKK from existing altogether." Mountain headquarters The PKK bases in the Qandil mountains border Iran, a rival of Turkey.
As the Turkish military steps up its offensive, some analysts suggest the PKK could turn to Iran for support. Despite having its own restive Kurdish minority, Tehran has in the past found common ground with the PKK, whose influence extends to Iraqi and Syrian Kurds.
"Iran supported PKK in the 80s and 90s very strongly," says Huseyin Bagci, president of the Foreign Policy Institute, a research organisation in Ankara.
"And now when Russians are out of the scene, not so strong, and probably Iran will take their place and the PKK and PYD, of course, they will try to use PKK as a leverage in their relations with Turkey."
Tehran has developed close links with armed groups across the region. Turkey threatens to dash Swedish, Finnish hopes of quick NATO entry The escaping Russians finding a better life in Turkey "We don't know relations with Iranian revolutionary guards or the Quds forces relations with the PKK. As they have connections with every armed group in the area, they should have some sort of communication with the PKK as well," says Selcen.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia like the PMU already have contacts with groups linked to the PKK.
"Right inside the Iraqi border in Sengal, Sinjar area, the PMU, and YBS the PKK affiliate in the area, they have friendly relations, or they depend on each other, perhaps," says Selcen.
"So, in order to survive, all these local actors will need bigger actors than themselves like Turkey, Iran, or global powers like the Americans, the United States," he added. Undermining US forces In Syria, Kurdish forces linked to the PKK cooperate with American forces in the war against the Islamic State group. For Tehran, which backs the Damascus regime, deepening cooperation with the PKK offers the opportunity to undermine the American presence in Syria.
"Tehran and Ankara are very pragmatic. They are aware of the very big differences in Syria in the Caucasus and other parts of the world," said Zaur Gasimiov, a senior research fellow in the history department at the University of Bonn.
But any Iranian cooperation with the PKK will involve a careful balancing act, says Gasimiov.
"I can imagine that the ties between PKK and Tehran would be staid, and maintained, and maybe boosted, but I can't imagine that Tehran would overplay, become a promoter of the PKK or supporter in the region, jeopardising its relations with Ankara.
"They learned to cooperate but being aware of the differences."
Relations between Turkey and Iran are often characterised as a combination of competition and cooperation.
Iran's battered economy relies heavily on Turkish trade – a point Erdogan is likely to stress in his expected visit to Tehran in the coming weeks.
Veto-wielding NATO member Turkey is threatening to end Swedish and Finnish membership hopes. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's opposition is rekindling questions over Ankara's allegiances, given its close ties with Moscow.
Erdogan doubled down on his opposition to Finland and Sweden's NATO membership application, accusing the countries of supporting terrorist organizations fighting Turkey.
The Turkish president told the Scandinavian countries not to bother to send diplomatic delegations to change his mind. But NATO is seen as now paying the price for ignoring Erdogan.
"He wants the NATO leader to come to him, acknowledge that Turkey has legitimate security concerns, find ways of appeasing that, and also pay more attention to Turkey. He doesn't want to be taken for granted," said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow of the European Council.
"I think that they worry the way the Ukraine war is headed to towards a long-term escalation," added Aydintasbas. "I think there is clearly some disappointment in Ankara that western leaders are not rallying behind Turkish's proposals to mediate between Ukraine and Russia."
Erdogan's advisors and his foreign minister had been seeking to downplay threats of a veto.
They have been calling for talks over Sweden's and Finland's arms embargo against Turkey and it harboring alleged members of the Kurdish rebel group the PKK, which is fighting Turkey.
But Erdogan's hardening stance will likely add to concerns in Nato over the Turkish president's close ties with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
"Turkey has very good relations with Russia, and Russia supplies defense systems. Russia is, for now and for the future, one of the biggest energy suppliers to Turkey," points out Huseyin Bagci, head of the Ankara-based Foreign Policy Institute.
Bagci argues such close ties are key to understanding Erdogan's attitude toward Finland and Sweden's bid to join the Atlantic Alliance. "The good relations between Erdogan and Putin are also the reason why Tayyip Erdogan plays this card.
The second (reason), Tayyip Erdogan tries to increase the leverage of Turkish bargaining process through this," said Bagci
Turkey remains at loggerheads with NATO over its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system, which saw the United States slap Ankara with military sanctions. In addition, Ankara risks a backlash from its NATO partners over its opposition to Sweden and Finland's membership.
"There will be those who say let's expel Turkey from NATO, although to the best of my knowledge, there is no expulsion mechanism in NATO," warns International relations expert Soli Ozel of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. Turkey's internaitonal standing But relations between Turkey and its allied partners, particularly Washington, had improved with Ankara's condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Turkey has recently used goodwill over its stance on Ukraine to improve ties with its Western allies. Analyst Ozel suggests Erdogan could be just looking for a deal, but he questions his approach.
"Turkey would like to use its power to veto as leverage in order to get those two countries to do as it would please it. How wise it is, is pretty debatable in my judgment,"
"I don't particularly find it very advisable. Because if Turkey is on a charm offensive and it's trying to rebuild bridges that it burnt with almost everyone, you can usually make your case, but you don't have to do it so publicly," warned Ozel.
But some experts, along with western diplomats, suggest Ankara wouldn't dare to use its veto, risking outrage from its western partners. But with Erdogan facing re-election next year and lagging in the polls, his legacy could be a factor in his deliberations.
"Tayyip Erdogan got a historic opportunity to increase the leverage and expectation of Turkey and probably will be supported by the public, and he will go into history as someone who opposed the Americans," claims Bagci.
Feverish diplomacy and the likelihood of plenty of horse-trading could well determine Sweden's and Finland's place in Nato and Turkey's relationship with its western allies.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has put India’s excess Covid deaths 10 times higher than its official tally. Delhi rejected it as “preposterous” but the report comes as a vindication for many who grieve in private, their loss overshadowed by an administrative dispute.
On 5 May, the WHO, tripling its earlier estimate, said 14.9 million Covid deaths occurred worldwide between January 2020 and December 2021.
“We estimate that India has the highest cumulative excess of 4.7 million deaths,” it added, prompting a backlash in India, which had posted 480,000 deaths by December.
NK Arora, who heads India’s enormous vaccination campaign, insisted the country’s death rate was among the world’s lowest. He rejected the WHO's revised numbers.
“There is no harm in saying that 10 to 15 percent deaths or up to 20 percent of deaths may have been missed, but nothing like what the WHO says,” Arora told NDTV, rubbishing the report as preposterous and untenable.
But despite the row, India, with 700 million Covid tests carried out and 1.9 billion vaccine doses administered, has bested most countries in its efforts to beat the pandemic.
Official Covid data
India relies on its death registration mechanism called the Central Registration System to count deaths, but French population scientist Christophe Guilmoto argued it was far from being fail-safe.
“It may not match the official Covid toll including in countries where the registration of Covid deaths was possibly of better quality because everybody visited hospitals,” Guilmoto told RFI.
In February, Guilmoto, who joined India’s Centre de Sciences humaines research group during the Delta surge, pegged India's Covid-19 mortality at between 3.2 million and 3.7 million by November 2021 when India’s official toll was 459,000.
Afsana Bibi’s world crashed when her father, both brother-in-laws and father-in-law died from Covid, leaving the 33-year-old with no support in a Mumbai slum.
“Government officers come with promises and then they leave, never to return with help,” the mother-of-two now dependent on a NGO told reporters.
State compensation
But Randeep Guleria, who heads India’s largest government hospital in Delhi, argued that the state dole handed out to relatives of Covid victims was a reliable way to calculate the number of casualties.
The doctor said India must register its objections to the WHO’s report, which also stated 84 percent of the world’s excess deaths occurred in south-east Asia Europe, and in the Americas.
Guilmoto, who works as a scientist at the Marseille-based Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, disagrees.
“The data on compensation does not match any of the estimates including the official estimate based on Covid deaths registration,” Guilmoto claimed in an interview.
India has posted 43 million cases but the Indian Express daily newspaper on 9 May reported some states were trying to solve their jigsaw of death puzzle dating back to 2020.
During last spring’s Delta surge, corpses were cremated at a Delhi car parking lot as crematoriums ran full; out-of-oxygen hospitals reported dozens of deaths while abandoned bodies floated past on a river.
Turkey is becoming a prime destination for Russians seeking to escape crackdowns by President Vladimir Putin and the effects of global economic sanctions. Turkey remains one of the few countries where Russian airplanes can fly, and where Russian passport holders can enter without visas.
Andre, not his real name, makes a cup of his favorite Russian tea for his Turkish hosts. Sipping the strong black brew offers a "taste of home, he says.
Andre fled to Istanbul last month as rumours spread of nationwide conscription.
"When I received the news that there might be conscription, I had just two hours to take my things and go," he explains.
"I know people are trying to leave Russia; police started to talk with them; 'why are you going'?"
Andre says with Russia becoming a country of fear for those who oppose the war in Ukraine, there is now a growing exodus.
"A lot of people left Russia; people who cannot leave are just silenced somehow. I know friends who just wrote something on their social media and police came to their houses.
"My friends are careful, and most of them have already left Russia, But I know that there are situations where police stop on them the streets and check their phones. It's just a nervous situation for all of us." Popular city Istanbul is an increasingly popular destination for those escaping Putin's Russia. "I chose Istanbul because it's not so far. I already knew something about this city," Andre explains.
"Istanbul has similar prices as in Russia, and I have connections here ... I can hear the Russian language everywhere."
Istanbul has historical ties with Russia and a long tradition of hosting Russians escaping their country's turmoil. In the Karakoy district, Russian orthodox churches are a common sight.
And one of the city's oldest and most prestigious restaurants was founded by refugees from the Bolshevik revolution. Uncertain fate of Turkish drones, a prominent symbol of Ukrainian resistance Today, Turkey is one of the few remaining countries where Russian planes can fly to. It also offers visa-free travel. That also makes it a popular destination for Russians seeking a way into EU countries. This Russian exile, who also declined to give his name, says he left just in time.
"I read the news, and I think that the borders will be closed. I think it's the last chance to move," he said. "You can easily come to Europe from Russia.
You just firstly go to Istanbul and then to Europe. I have met many Russians here many friends of mine are in other countries. They just traveled and decided not to go back." Properties Many Russians are now buying properties in Turkey. That allows them to secure their savings and even Turkish citizenship for themselves and their family.
"For citizenship, via investment program, you can buy like one or two properties, depending on your budget, but it should be fitting to 250 thousand dollars," explains Alex Cihanoglu, a real estate agent at the Istanbul-based Property Istanbul.
Istanbul is witnessing a property boom, says Cihanoglu, given that Turkey is uniquely placed for Russians seeking a way out. "Nowadays, there are only five countries to which Russians can travel, and one of them is Turkey," said Cihanoglu. Ankara earns new friends thanks to efforts to end Ukraine war Even Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT money transfer system is not proving an obstacle to buying property here. "There are a lot of people stuck with transferring money," said Cihanoglu,
"But there is always, especially cryptocurrency is one of the best ways to move their money to Turkey. So, of course, it's a big destination where people want to park their money." European dream But Andre has no plans to settle in Istanbul, even if he had the funds to buy a home. Instead, he says he plans to move on to Europe and establish a new life there, but his thoughts are with the family and country he left behind.
"I am thinking about them every day and making calls; I am writing them almost every day," he said.
"Actually, I want to take them from Russia, but I don't know I will be able to do it or have just hope Russia can change in the next five or ten years. I cannot imagine how long it takes; it already looks like the bad years of the USSR. For me, it's like the death of Russia."
But for now, Andre spends his time in Istanbul counting on the support of locals and a growing network of Russians for whom Turkey has become a refuge.
After years of stonewalling, members of the indigenous Garasiya tribe, in the north-western Indian state of Rajasthan, have finally accepted immunisation.
As the second wave of Covid hit India in April of last year, Papli Bai vehemently refused to get vaccinated.
“I shouted at the health workers who came to our village. The male folk threw stones at them to shoo them away,” Papli told RFI.
Like many in the Indigenous Garasiya community, she believed it was the vaccine which was causing people to fall ill and, in some cases, to die.
On another block, Keli Bai and her sister, Puli, shut the doors on health workers.
Historically, the Garasiya community has had a fear of syringes. It stems from a mixture of mistrust in western medicine, and faith in traditional medicinal practices. This has led to low vaccine coverage in the tribal areas.
Medical workers along with NGOs sought the help of community workers and faith healers called "bhopas" to convince the Garasiya community. Dangers explained Richa Audichya is with Jan Chetna Sansthan, an NGO that works with the Garasiyas. She says it took months just to get an audience with them and explain the dangers of the disease.
“It was a tough experience but we were happy after some time. Earlier we tried various strategies," Audichya told RFI.
“We stayed in the villages at night, ate with them, danced with them, sang with them but when we talked of vaccination, they would say no.”
There are hundreds of tribes in India, each with their own distinct cultures. Most rely on farming for their livelihood, and live outside of India's mainstream. Modi, Macron call for ‘immediate’ end to Ukraine hostilities, but differences remain That isolation has led to many misconceptions and fears about the pandemic and vaccines, such as the idea that vaccination affects women's fertility and makes men sterile.
Rajasthan is home to more than 82 million people and is predominantly rural, with nearly 75 percent of its population living in villages.
Many tribal people are settled in the southern region, where tribes such as the Bhil, Meena and Garasiya have made their place in the lap of the Aravalli hills. They make up nearly 14 percent of the state’s population. Women – harbingers of change In the Garasiya community, women leaders such as Sarmi Bai have helped the community overcome hesitancy and accept vaccines.
“I had to take my injection in front of many of my tribe members for them to convinced. I came back to them regularly to ensure that it would not have any impact on health,” said Sarmi. Provocative songs, a prelude to communal violence in India The women leaders also used song and dance in the local dialect to help persuade others. They moved around far-flung villages to spread the word of the importance of vaccines, and other Covid-appropriate behaviour.
These women ambassadors went door-to-door and organised neighbourhood meetings to encourage people to get vaccinated.
What started off as small numbers of tribal folk getting the jab spread far and wide within a few months.
Vaccinations have now reached 75 percent of government targets, according to official records.
It's a number that was virtually unheard of before the multiple interventions were employed.
Turkish-made drones have featured prominently in Ukraine's resistance against Russia's invasion, taking out significant Russian targets in the first few weeks of the war. But the conflict, and any possibility of a Russian victory, have cast a shadow over the future of Turkey's rapidly growing drone industry, which relies on Ukrainian engines.
A Ukrainian controller carefully aims at a video screen of a Russian tank and then unleashes a missile from a Turkish-made Bayraktar drone, destroying the target to cheers by the operators.
The Ukrainians widely distribute videos like these. Both militarily and psychologically, the drones have given much-needed hope to the Ukrainians and struck fear in their Russian adversaries.
The conflict is the latest in a series of military successes for Turkey's TB2 Bayraktar drones. But their future could be in doubt if Russia was to prevail over Ukraine, given the drone's dependence on Ukrainian engines and Moscow's growing concerns over their success. Competitive "Russia sees Bayraktar's TB2's in particular as a highly competitive weapon and technology not just in the former Soviet space but in the global aerial vehicle market," points out analyst Samuel Bendett of the Russian studies Department at the US-based Centre for Naval Analyses.
"Russians are nervous that Bayraktar is penetrating the former Soviet space, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and now Ukraine.
"And so, if Russians were to sort of exercise the full extent of their powers in the outcome of the (peace) negotiations, they would probably seek to limit Ukrainian military cooperation with Turkey so as not to further growing Turkish advantage in certain technologies like UAVs." Outrage as Turkish courts seek to silence anti-femicide campaigners Turkish Bayraktar drone promotional videos highlight their recent military success from Azerbaijan to Syria and across Africa. The drone's success, coupled with competitive pricing, has become a formidable commercial force in the fiercely competitive arms world.
"The advantage of the TB2 is that it's a one-stop-shop. You get the drone, you get the training and the munitions come with it," said Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
"And the overall price tag, I think the consensus is around five million dollars, and I think that it's all-in including the munitions, And so for less well-to-do countries, it's a bargain." Few controls But that's not all, as Turkey attaches few controls on how the drones are used, unlike their western counterparts. As a result, Turkish drones have been used in conflicts such as the Ethiopian civil war, drawing international criticism from rights groups.
Such sales are only possible because Ukrainian engines allow Turkish companies to circumvent restrictions on third-party use from their traditional western suppliers.
"Turkey has been facing big problems in procuring subsystems, technologies, and components from western countries," said Turkish defence expert Arda Mevlutoglu.
"Whereas Ukraine is offering reliable and relatively low-cost technologies without major political strings attached. Ukraine has become a major power plant supplier not only for drones but for helicopters as well." Ankara earns new friends thanks to efforts to end Ukraine war If Turkish drone manufacturers are forced to turn back to their traditional western suppliers, they are predicted to face significant problems – especially when it comes to drone technology.
"There are more restrictions when you deal with the UK, European or American suppliers, and that is something Turkey will definitely keep in mind," warns James Rogers, assistant professor in war studies at the University of Southern Denmark.
"We know that the United States has been very selective as to who it sells drones and drone elements to around the world.
"This was one of the reasons why Turkey started its entire indigenous drone program because Congress wouldn't approve the sale of Reaper-Predator generation medium-altitude, long-endurance drones to Turkey." Failures Earlier this year, a prominent Turkish military helicopter deal with Pakistan collapsed over Washington's restrictions on the use of American engines.
In addition, Congress has been enforcing increased controls on the supplies of military components to Turkey over Ankara's purchase of Russia's S400-made missile defence system.
Despite Ankara receiving praise from Washington over its support of Ukraine, analyst Stein expects little change in Washington's stance towards Turkey.
"One side is that Turkey is hostile to the United States. It's no longer an ally; it's an adversary. So, we should be treating it as such," says Stein.
"The other side is we misunderstand Turkey, and it needs a big hug because it's so important. And the government is somewhere in the middle, and usually, current events reinforce positions on either side."
Given the challenges of finding an alternative to Ukrainian engines, Turkey's drone industry will likely look for drones to thwart Moscow's ambitions and secure Kyiv and its future.
Despite Turkey having one of the worst records in Europe of femicide, or women being murdered, a prominent group challenging this phenomenon faces being shut down by the courts. The case against the "We Will Stop Femicide Platform has caused outrage and nationwide protests.
In Istanbul earlier this month, hundreds of protestors held up images of murdered women, most of them killed by boyfriends or husbands.
The We Will Stop Femicide Platform is at the forefront of forcing the scourge of femicide onto the political agenda. But now, the group is fighting for its survival, accused under Turkey's civil code of undermining family values and morality.
“I am really angry, I am really upset,” said this woman protestors who didn’t want to be identified. “We are fighting against crime; the government is not supporting us, and I am really upset. It’s the only organisation that fights against crime against women.”
The platform has achieved the rare phenomenon of crossing the usually strict divide between religious and secular. Women wearing religious headscarves stand shoulder to shoulder with their secular sisters – as violence and the murder of women transcend religious barriers. Too successful? Platform member Seyma Ozcan, she says their only crime has been success.
“They’re trying to stop us with unfounded claims,” says Ozcan. “For years we’ve been following all the cases about killings, violence and rape against women, and compiling data. This case is without any solid evidence by people who want to stop our work.”
Addressing the Istanbul protest, Fidan Ataselim, secretary-general of the We Will Stop Femicides platform, vows they’ll fight the court case, to rapturous applause.
The platform has drawn national and international praise for its social media campaigns and demonstrations. It’s successfully put several high-profile cases onto the national agenda, embarrassing authorities over their failure to protect women. Ankara earns new friends thanks to efforts to end Ukraine war That’s resulted in many cases of violence or murder being reopened, leading to successful prosecutions.
The platform also runs a 24 hour telephone line for women seeking help to escape violence or families seeking legal redress for murderer daughters. Legal assistance is also provided to the families. But such efforts are now under threat by the closure case.
“It’s hugely intimidating. We’re not even talking about what happens if we’re closed, we’re continuing our fight not to have our platform shut down,” said Ataselim.
“But just the attempt to close it, is part of the suppression, criminalisation, and polarisation policies against democratic public organisations, and the struggle for women’s rights.” Widespread alarm The closure case has drawn widespread criticism by rights groups both at home and abroad.
Given that Turkey has a huge problem of domestic violence and violence against women, for the government or the authorities to target a campaigning platform that focuses on murders of women is really appalling,” said Emma Sinclair Webb, the Turkey representative of the New York based Human Rights Watch.
“This platform has been highly successful in raising public awareness of the issues to a very wide part of the society in lots of different parts of the country and an attempt to close them down just looks like a reprisal against them for their success as a campaigning organisation.” Talks could see Turkey and Armenia reopen their borders after 30 years Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held next year and are expected to be the closest in decades. So this case is seen as an attempt by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his religious-rooted AKP party to consolidate conservative voters.
Last year, Erdogan pulled Turkey out of the Istanbul Convention, the first international treaty focused solely on protecting women against violence. He claimed it undermined family values.
“What the government is trying to do is leave women victims alone in the court cases," warns Nazli Okten, of Istanbul’s Galatasaray University, claiming the closure case is part of a wider agenda.
“Women are seen as the enemy, and women rights movements are demonised by the government. So people see this kind of extension of this movement for the criminalisation of the opposition in Turkey.” Struggle for justice Among those addressing the Istanbul rally was Nihat Palandoken, whose daughter was murdered by her boyfriend. He tells the crowd that the We Will Stop Femicide platform stood by his family in their struggle for justice. Other parents of murdered daughters also addressed the rally.
“We Will Stop Femicides Platform, is our organisation. When they target this platform, it means they’re targeting us,” said Palandoken.
“They’ve scratched our wound one more time. Instead of stopping women from being killed, they’re trying to close this platform based on harming family moral values. Do you know when our family moral values were harmed? When they withdrew from the Istanbul Convention.”
At the end of the rally, a roll call was read out of all the 77 women murdered this year.
The grim reality is that at the next rally, there'll inevitably be new names. The closure case against the We Will Stop Femicide Platform can only increase concerns that the government is more interested in silencing those fighting for justice, than bringing an end to femicide.
Ankara's support of Kyiv and diplomatic efforts to end the Ukrainian war has won plaudits from its western allies, including France, offering the hope of a reset of deeply strained relations.
At March's NATO summit, smiling Turkish and French Presidents exchanged a warm handshake in front of the world's media. The two leaders were more accustomed to exchanging barbs and even insults until recently. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed the tone.
"Although they were not shy of invectives against each other. Now they both pat each other's backs," said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen now a presenter for news portal Mediascope. Warming ties In a sign of warming ties, both sides have committed themselves to reviving the sale of an Italian French missile Samp/T defense system to Turkey.
That is seen as potentially significant as the defense system could provide an alternative to Russia's S400 missile system that Ankara purchased.
The purchase remains a key point of tension between Turkey and its NATO partners, who call for its removal. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's close ties with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin while contentious, have allowed him to present himself as an honest broker in efforts to end the Ukraine conflict.
"There are no losers with peace," Erdogan declared to Russian and Ukrainian delegations in a short speech ahead of peace talks in Istanbul. Turkey's geostrategic importance Ankara has close ties with Kyiv and Moscow. But Erdogan has strongly condemned Russia's assault on Ukraine, closing access to the Black Sea to most of Russia's warships. Such moves received strong plaudits from Brussels and Washington. The Ukrainian conflict could offer an opportunity to Ankara.
"That the world has entered a new era, somewhat similar to the Cold War, will also emphasize Turkey's geostrategic importance," said Sinan Ulgen of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a research organization in Istanbul.
"And as a result of which there will be an opportunity for Turkey and its Western allies, and here particularly the United States, to try to resolve their outstanding issues on a more constructive note," Ulgen added.
Erdogan's backing of Ukraine comes as he is already working to repair relations with others, including Armenia and Israel — moves that have also drawn praise from the West, including Paris.
But Turkey is still facing significant obstacles to any reset in relations with its Western partners, warns Sezin Oney, a political columnist for PolitikYol, a Turkish news portal. Turkish people feel pinch as Ukraine war drives up poverty New talks could see Turkey and Armenia reopen their borders after 30 years "I don't see a return to old alliance structures, not unless there is a very big change in Turkey, and Turkey moves towards democracy and the rule of law and respect of human rights. And we don't foresee that at this point, not with this government. So, I don't think so. But there might be coinciding interests. There might be new coinciding interests developing. There might be cooperation, "said Oney,
Rights groups say Turkey is one of the biggest jailers of journalists globally, while its treatment of government opponents and its Kurdish minority continue to draw strong international criticism.
Ankara rejects such criticism, insisting it's a law-abiding country. But some analysts suggest Ankara may be calculating that any return to Cold War-like diplomacy could, as in the past, see Turkey's Western allies placing security concerns ahead of democracy. Selcen says such a calculation is misplaced.
"As long as the war is underway, Turkey's geopolitical importance and value is very high. It's not negligible at all. But once the war ends and once we step into this new world. Probably then there will be more pressure again from the West from Europe and the US on Turkey to move on democratization, and we have to keep in mind that by next year there will be elections in this country in 2023," said Selcen
The arrival in a Turkish port of two superyachts belonging to a Russian oligarch is drawing attention to Ankara's policy of refusing to impose sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. There are concerns that Turkey is becoming a safe haven for those seeking to circumvent sanctions.
The arrival of vessels belonging to millionaire Roman Abramovich is adding to suspicions that Turkey could become a refuge for sanctioned oligarchs and their wealth.
Despite Abramovich being targeted by sanctions by both the European Union and Britain, Turkey has so far refused to penalize Russians.
There are reports in the Turkish media that Abramovich plans to use Turkey as a base, or planning to buy a Turkish football team. Abramovich invested heavily in London's Chelsea soccer club before British authorities seized control after the oligarch was placed on a sanctioned list. MPs seize control of Chelsea after British government sanctions owner Abramovich Timothy Ash of Bluejay Asset Management says Turkey will face growing scrutiny from its Western allies.
"There has been some focus on reflagging Russian aircraft as Turkish aircraft. There are strong trading and banking relationships between Russia and Turkey. Some media attention on a lot of Russians trying to set up new bank accounts in Turkey, presumably to try to get around some of the problems they are probably encountering," Ash told RFI.
"There has also been concern that Russian companies and entities trying to export or trade with Russia are repackaging themselves as Turkish entities," Ash continues.
"I would imagine western governments, including the US, will be talking with their Turkish counterparts and trying to encourage them not to break sanctions. But there is a recognition of Turkey's relatively weak financial position," he concluded. Iran case "There is a lot of news, unsubstantiated in my view, that oligarchs are parking their money in Turkey," analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners told RFI.
"Turkey has extensive business links, no matter how you define it, with Russia," added Yesilada. "A lot of people hoped that Turkey would become a proxy financial center or intermediary for Russia. I wouldn't put it past the current regime to try to repeat the Reza Zarrab incident - 40 billion dollars of money whitewashed to Iran," he continued.
Reza Zarrab is a Turkish-Iranian businessman who pleaded guilty in 2017 in a New York court to massive charges of violating sanctions against Iran. A senior executive of the Turkish state-owned investment bank Halkbank was convicted and jailed under the same investigation. Halkbank itself is also facing trial on Iranian sanction busting charges.
Ankara insists it is fulfilling its international obligations in enforcing United Nations sanctions.
"If you mean whether these oligarchs can do any business in Turkey, then of course, if it is legal and not against international law, I will consider it," said Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. Peace brokering Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan argues that financial and economic measures against Moscow are counterproductive.
Erdogan claims his country's refusal to join sanctions enables it to be an honest broker in efforts to end the Ukraine conflict. The Turkish President has close ties with both his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, having hosted three days of talks between the warring parties in late March.
The Dutch Prime Minister Paul Rutte recently visited Ankara, becoming the fourth European leader to travel to Turkey since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Rutte appeared to play down any concerns over Turkey's opposition to Russian sanctions at a joint press conference. EU nations expel dozens of Russian diplomats suspected of spying "Yes, of course, we would very much favor for Turkey to implement all the sanctions, but I think we also have to be happy with the fact that Turkey is playing now its diplomatic role and its leadership role in trying to end the conflict," said Rutte.
With Erdogan appearing to play a prominent role in peace efforts, analysts say Turkey is likely to get - at least in public - the benefit of the doubt over its stance on sanctions.
Some analysts say that means more Russian superyachts and their owners could be heading to Turkish marinas earlier than usual, ahead of the traditional summer season.
The financial turmoil unleashed by the Ukrainian conflict is hitting Turkey harder than most, with its economy still grappling with galloping price hikes caused by last year's currency collapse.
In Istanbul, opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is turning to a historic tradition to alleviate hardship as inflation surges past 50 percent.
His efforts have won international recognition, enhancing the mayor's reputation as a possible challenger to sitting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
For decades baker Yavuz Eraldi has been serving Turkey's largest city Istanbul, where – like in many other places – bread is a traditional staple of the poor. But not anymore, with the price of bread nearly doubling in less than a year.
Such hard times, Eraldi says, mean people are increasingly turning to a centuries-old charitable tradition called "on the hook".
Pointing to a plastic board above the counter, Eraldi explains: "A customer pays for three extra loaves. Then I write here on a board – 3 "on the hook", and people in need see that free bread is available. Purchasing power plummets People's purchasing power has really gone down. Even those on a monthly salary have started to come and ask if there's any bread left "on the hook".
"I've never seen this before, but this is the reality we're facing," Eraldi says.
Last year's collapse of the Turkish lira triggered a surge in inflation. Officially running at more than 50 percent, independent studies put it at double that.
Anger over rising prices is spilling onto the streets, with social media filled with videos of people burning their utility bills in impromptu protests over price hikes. The strategic role of Istanbul's Bosphorus in the Ukraine crisis Anti-poverty groups say this winter people are facing a stark choice between eating or heating – a situation that is set to only worsen with financial turmoil caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey's economy is still recovering from last year's currency collapse coupled with the country's dependence on imported energy and wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
"If the currency weakens once more obviously, it will immediately pass through to inflation," warns analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.
"Then inflation would shoot up to hyper inflation levels, which is unstable inflation which may reach three digits.
"Poverty has reached unprecedented levels. Of course, inflation makes it very difficult for the Turkish people to afford any discretionary items. All the budget is focused on heating, rent, and food. Political fallout "People are running out of patience with Erdogan. He is urging people to wait a couple more months, but if I am hungry and my children are cold, I don't have the luxury of waiting a couple more months," added Yesilada.
Istanbul's opposition-controlled municipality is now updating the "on-the-hook" tradition for the digital world to alleviate growing poverty.
"We need creative solutions to face this crisis, one of them is bills on the hook. The need is greater than at any other time," says Sengul Altan Arslan, deputy secretary of the Istanbul municipality. Why drones pose a threat to Russia-Turkey relations as Ukraine crisis develops Arslan shows a web page they created where people who can't afford their utility bills can post them, and where someone else can pay them through the site.
"When you look at the numbers, you see in November 18,000 people left their bills on the hook to be paid, whereas in December it was up to 25,000 bills. On February 1st, only 10,000 people put their bills "on the hook" in one day."
The dire situation we're in requires more solidarity," says Arslan. Calls for help Local officials say all those applying for help are verified as being "in need". So far, more than 300,000 bills have been paid through the scheme.
Initiatives like this by Istanbul's charismatic mayor Imamoglu are playing well in opinion polls, ranking him a potential frontrunner to unseat Erdogan in next year's presidential elections.
The mayor has turned his municipality into the country's biggest bread producer. Last month he visited a newly opened bakery that produces more than a million subsidised loaves a day.
Queues for subsidised bread have become a symbol of Turkey's economic pain. In Istanbul's Kadikoy district, scores of people patiently wait for bread, which costs about a third of the usual price.
Among them is retiree Ali Demir, who has high praise for the mayor.
"This is great work; the public should wake up," he says. "A service like this doesn't exist anywhere else in Turkey except here. People are hungry in this city. We need help."
A previous economic crisis brought an Istanbul mayor, President Erdogan, to power.
Imamoglu and his supporters may well be hoping that history repeats itself.
A Russian kilo class submarine gliding through Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway en route to the Black Sea recently provided an early morning spectacle to city commuters crossing the strait of water that divides Turkey's largest city.
Such demonstrations of naval prowess have become common in Istanbul. As tensions rise in Ukraine, Russian and NATO warships are increasingly using the Bosphorus waterway, the only access into the Black Sea from the open waters of the Mediterranean. The importance of the Bosphorus The strategic importance of the Bosphorus in the Ukraine crisis is forcing closer scrutiny of the 1936 Convention administered by Turkey which governs naval access to the Black Sea.
Russia is deploying warships from its Northern fleet to the Black Sea, while several French naval vessels are set to pass through the Bosphorus later this month. But access by non-Black Sea countries is strictly controlled by the 1936 Montreux convention, explained Mithat Rende, a retired Turkish Ambassador, an expert on maritime affairs.
"Those who are not riparian states have to limit their presence (in the Black Sea), to 45,000 metric tonnes (total ship tonnage). With a maximum of 15 vessels for a period of 21 days, and they have also to notify Turkey, giving the time and date of the passage," said Rende.
The Montreux Convention is of historical importance for Turkey as it restored Turkish sovereignty and control to the network of internal waterways linking the Black Sea to the open sea. But Mustafa Aydin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, warns that Turkey's role as Black Sea gatekeeper put it in a difficult position with its NATO partners at times of high tensions with Russia.
"We have seen this during the Russian Georgian war in 2008. The United States and other NATO allies tried to bring more ships into the region. Initially, Turkey did not allow the first request from the United States because it was violating the limit of the tonnage of the ships. Eventually the US changed that request to two small ships instead of one big vessel. But this created a big delay." said Aydin. Russian pressure But Turkey is also facing pressure from Russia. Last April, a US warship using Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway to participate in a NATO Ukrainian naval exercise drew swift condemnation by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Moreover, Russian pressure is predicted to grow if NATO steps up its Black Sea maritime presence.
"Russia is making pressure on Turkey not to get involved, whether as a NATO member or a good neighbor of Ukraine," claims Huseyin Bagci, head of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute in Ankara.
"The Russians do not hide every opportunity to criticise Turkey, and not to threaten maybe but to tell Turkey that Ankara should not make any wrong step." Bagci added.
Ankara is looking to diplomatic talks to defuse soaring tensions over Ukraine. Aware that failure could lead to a further military buildup, including more NATO ships entering the Black Sea and deeper scrutiny of Turkey's administration of the Montreux Convention.
With Russian forces poised to attack Ukraine, Turkish-made drones are set to face a big test in battle as well as a challenge to Turkey's relations with Russia.
Russian tanks continue to exercise close to the Ukrainian border; the gunfire is just training for now. As Russia continues to build up its forces, Turkey continues to supply Ukraine with newly developed armed drones in the face of Moscow's warnings.
"Turkey is not happy about Russian expansion. Turkey is not happy that Russia is flexing its muscles in the former Soviet space," claims Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council.
"Ankara is seeing this as an opportunity to improve relations with NATO," adds Aydintasbas. "Relations with Washington, they have really been up and down and sometimes quite tense over the last few years. "
"So, the Ukraine crisis is a chance to polish Turkey's credentials as a NATO member. And it's been particularly supportive of Ukraine by way of selling weapons but also drones."
Drones as weapons
From Libya to Syria, Turkish drones, or unmanned air vehicles – also known as UAVs - have quickly gained a reputation as being cheap and effective.
"A single armed drone equipped with a couple of bombs may destroy a whole air defuse battery or a very expensive electronic warfare system or take out some armed vehicles " said defense analyst Arda Mevlutoglu.
Turkish drones drew world attention in 2020 after playing a key role in Azerbaijan's defeat of Armenian-backed forces in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. The drones are most recently playing a key role in turning the tide against Tigray rebels in the Ethiopian civil war.
But defense analyst Mevlutoglu warns that in Ukraine the Turkish drones would face a far more formidable challenge from Russian forces.
"In conflicts such as Syria, Libya Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkish drones were used against air defenses of low quality, or virtually no air defenses at all.
However Russian army possesses a large number of sophisticated air defense equipment, electronic warfare equipment," said Mevlutoglu.
In October, the Ukrainian army's use of Turkish drones against Russian-backed separatists underscored - some analysts say - the drones' importance not only militarily but psychologically.
"That (October drone attack) increased morale not only in the Ukrainian army but also in the general public," said Petro Burkovskiy is, a senior fellow at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation in Kyiv.
"It showed that, yes, Ukrainians can resist and can defend themselves from the Russian region in Donbas, and that also made Turkey more visible as an ally.
Russian condemnation
Russia was quick to condemn Ukraine's use of Turkish drones.
The Turkish and Russian presidents have developed strong ties, raising concerns at NATO. Turkey is heavily dependent on Russian gas and cooperation in Syria. But if Turkish-made drones end up causing Russian casualties, bilateral ties could face a big challenge.
"Turkish ammunitions and also UAVs would be used by the Ukrainian side, and that would be not very acceptable for the Russians," warned Mustafa Aydin is a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.
"If Turkey is pushed for a choice, Turkey would choose the western alliance and NATO, but it's very difficult to predict whether Ukraine is that eventuality," added Aydin.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now trying to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, hoping that averting confrontation will avoid a difficult choice for Turkey.
Hopes are growing Turkey and Armenia could reopen their borders after nearly thirty years after Turkish Armenian envoys described last month's diplomatic talks as "constructive and positive,"
Ankara cut diplomatic relations and seized its border with Armenia after Armenian forces seized Azeri territory in fighting over Nagorno Karabakh, an enclave internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but with a majority Armenian population. Ankara counts Baku among its closest allies.
'No clear barrier to rapprochement'
In 2020, Azeri forces with Turkish support recaptured territory they'd lost. Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam research institute says victory opened the door to the Turkish Armenian rapprochement.
"Today, therefore, there is no clear barrier to this rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia," said Ulgen, "Because as we recall, it was on account of the occupation of these territories back in the early 1990s, that Turkey had decided to close the border."
"So now that justification has disappeared, and on top of that, there are also positive messaging from Baku about the Turkey Armenia rapprochement," added Ulgen.
The prospect of renewed trade with Armenia is welcomed by Turkish traders living near the two countries' borders.
"Look at the European countries; they do business with each other," said cheese seller Huseyin Kanik.
"It is a country (Armenia) that is so close to us. From here, in an hour, you are in Armenia and the same if they come here. One hour is all that separates us. So people could go back and forth, do business, go in the morning and come back in the evening."
Armenian workers
Reopening the border would help the thousands of Armenians working in Turkey. Armenians working illegally can be found praying at a local church in Istanbul. Among those attending who did not want to be identified, say the restoration of diplomatic relations could help with their status and mean an end to the arduous road journey home via neighboring Georgia.
Remittances from Armenian workers are an essential source of income for their country's economy, which has been hit hard by being denied direct access to Turkey's large market and important transit routes to the broader region.
Preparations are already underway for the reopening of the border.
"The reopening of the border will consist of the opening or establishment of two critical border cross points," Said Richard Giragosian, Director of the Yerevan based Regional Studies Center.
"One for trucks and trade and the other for tourism. And in both areas, there is tremendous potential because the border has been closed for so long there is pent-up demand," added Giragosian, "At the same time, we also see a level investment in preparation of the reopening."
Historical Obstacles
History could be an obstacle to rapprochement efforts. Along with much of the world, Armenia accuses Turkey's then Ottoman rulers of committing genocide against its Armenian minority during World War One. Ankara denies the genocide charge insisting the deaths occurred during a civil war. But Yerevan may not want the past to dictate the rapprochement agenda.
"It's a policy of no preconditions, meaning that normalization is not reconciliation," claimed Giragosian. "This is not about the Armenian genocide; this is simply the basic minimum of neighbors, establishing diplomatic relations, and having open borders. Reconciliation will come later, with normalization as an important foundation," he added.
A normalisation of relations would likely help ease Ankara's strained ties with Washington and the European Union, which have welcomed the diplomatic efforts.
Both have strongly criticized Turkey's Armenia policy, forcing Yerevan to depend on its Russian and Iranian neighbors. But some analysts the reopening of the Turkish Armenian border could ease that dependency.
"That would have a huge impact in the region regarding easing cooperation and particularly communication and transportation," claimed Zaur Gasimov, an expert on the Caucasus at Bonn University.
"The boost of cooperation between these two countries would diminish the role of Iran in the region entirely, and Tehran opposes that, and the same goes for Russia," he added. "Because it makes the large profile presence of Russian military region that puts it in a completely new light, that questions its number and its role."
Direct flights
The announcement of new direct flights between the two countries starting in February is the first positive step forward.
But earlier this month, three soldiers were killed in border clashes between Armenian and Azeri forces. Those fatalities underscore what some observers say is the fragility of the rapprochement process.
"Circumstances can change," warns analyst Ulgen. "if there is a flare-up in Nagorno Karabakh, for instance, or at the border, things may be different. That's why I think it's important things need to move at a rather fast pace."
Turkey is in the grip of an economic crisis. Last year the Turkish lira plummeted nearly 35 percent, resulting in surging prices and rising poverty. The country's deepening financial woes are prompting concerns it could further raise tensions over the presence of millions of refugees.
Pain and fear stalk one of Istanbul's main food markets. A year of financial currency turmoil has brought with it soaring inflation, predicted to rise to over thirty percent and beyond in the coming weeks.
'Prices keep rising'
Fruit and vegetable seller Veysel, who only wants to be identified only by his first name, tries to drum up trade for his fresh oranges and lemons. But most customers just look on and Veysel says he fears prices will keep going up.
"Prices keep rising, like the increase on the price of the plastic bags we use, or on the produce we buy from wholesalers," Veysel says.
"Then we have to include this price increase on our produce; we have to reflect it on some of the goods we sell, we have no choice," he adds.
One of Veysel's customers, who didn't want to be identified, says she's battling to survive.
"I no longer have buying power. I am saving whatever cash I have," she said. "Now the prices are incredibly high; I am not buying anything that I don't need immediately.
"Because one cannot see the future, one cannot guess what the price of bread or other foods will be next month. During the pandemic, we at least had some hope; now, no one has any hope," the customer adds.
4 million refugees are vulnerable
As Turkey's economic pain deepens with rising prices and growing poverty, the country's four million refugees, mainly Syrian, could be vulnerable. A recent opinion poll found a majority of those polled want the refugees to leave.
Pollster Can Selcuki of the Istanbul Economics Research says their findings found anti-Syrian sentiments especially high among Turkish youth.
"Seventy-five percent didn't agree Syrians contribute to society whereas 61 percent agreed or definitely agreed with the statement that a more harsh stance should be taken by security forces towards the Syrian refugees," said Selcuki.
"I think one reason is that the influx of the Syrian refugees were very poorly managed.
"We don't talk about the Syrian entrepreneurs that establish a connection with the wider Arab world and Turkish firms. Or we don't talk about the young kid who got the highest point in the high school entrance exam last year who was of Syrian origin. The bad examples are always much more than the good examples," he added.
Ankara violence
Animosity spilled into violence in August when Syrian refugee homes and shops were attacked in the capital Ankara.
A series of social media videos by Syrians apparently mocking the inability of Turkish people to afford bananas caused outrage, prompting authorities to detain those responsible for the videos, who now face deportation.
Atilla Yesilada, an analyst with Global Source Partners, warns social tensions over refugees can only rise as the economic crisis in Turkey deepens.
"I think it's going to get worse. That's a very common social phenomenon observed everywhere. When things are well, refugees are tolerated," he said.
"But when economic stress rises, people always look for scapegoats, and who are better scapegoats than minorities? And in Turkey, in the western part, the minority happens to be the refugees because they are very easy to identify. And, as I said, even the smallest friction can explode into something massive."
Arab tourism
Animosity towards Arab refugees comes to the fore as Turkey's crucial tourism industry is increasingly dependent on tourists from the Arab world.
Istanbul's historic shopping street Istiklal used to be filled with European tourists, but now most stay away from popular destinations like Istanbul due to Covid-19 restrictions, which blocked or restricted travel to Turkey until recently.
So now Istiklal Street is filled with Arabs from across the Middle East. Sunglasses and watch shop owner Guclu Sahin says Arab tourists are now vital to his shop's survival.
"Eighty percent of the tourists are from the Middle east. The economy went down for local customers, and we've been losing customers every day, and I can say I have changed totally my business to Arab customers," said Guclu.
Arab tourism is a valuable source of precious hard currency for Turkey. But that could be at risk if animosity against Arab refugees escalates to wider anti-Arab sentiments.
Turkey's highly publicised arrest of alleged Iranian agents is the latest sign of growing tensions between the two neighbors, as Turkey expands its influence in the Caucasus region at Iran's expense.
In October, Turkish security forces claimed to have arrested several Iranian agents who Ankara says were attempting to kidnap an Iranian dissident in the city of Van close to the Iranian border. Video of the arrests was widely distributed to the media, causing embarassment for Tehran.
The incident comes as Iran and Turkey are in a mounting power struggle in the Caucasus. Turkish and Israeli military hardware were vital to Azerbaijan's forces' ouster of the Armenian army last year from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave - a conflict that redrew the balance of power in the region at Iran's expense.
"Now the Israeli-Azerbaijani ties are closer ... there is a new geopolitical reality in the south Caucasus in which Iran's role has been downsized," said Galip Dalay of the London-based Chatham House,
"In contrast, the Turkish role has increased, and Russia has asserted its primacy; all of them are the factors that very much make Iran unhappy," added Dalay. Pressure on Azerbaijan Iran is now pushing back along with stepping up diplomatic efforts. Iran's foreign minister held talks with his Armenian counterpart In October. While the same month, Tehran flexed its military muscles carrying out army exercises, for the first time in decades, on the Azeri border.
"Now, Iran is putting pressure on Azerbaijan," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Director of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara.
"Diplomatic ties between Iran, Armenia, and Russia regarding the Caucasus are getting closer. Iran is organizing, is holding military exercises right next to its border with Azerbaijan. So, it can be said that there is tension in the region that will be durable in the long run," added Unluhisarcikli. Iran's hardball tactics However, Iran's hardball tactics may have backfired, only strengthening Turkey's hand in the region. In a show of support, the Turkish military held joint exercises with Azeri forces close to the Iranian border after Tehran's show of force, underscoring some analysts say how important Ankara is to Baku.
"Definitely, definitely Turkey became much more important for Azerbaijan for the Azeris perception of its own security after the Iranian drills on its border," claims Zaur Gasimov, an expert on the Caucasus at Germany's Bonn University.
"Definitely, Turkey is among the benefices of the situation after the Iranian military drills," added Gasimov. "So I would say the cooperation between Ankara and Baku became much more essential at least for Baku."
Turkey's deepening military ties with Iran's eastern neighbor Pakistan also adds to Tehran's unease, says Gasimov, by stoking sectarian tensions. Turkey and Pakistan are Sunni Muslim countries and Iran is Shia.
"Tehran observes the deepening of the cooperation in security and military between Pakistan and Turkey, as well as between Turkey and Azerbaijan and Pakistan, with concern, because the perception of the dynamics of regional politics in the greater Middle East takes place in Iran within the framework of sectarianism and the Shia perception," Gasimov said.
"So in Iran's world view, the cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey is the cooperation between two Sunni societies. So this perceive this as a threat, this is a very important issue for the Iranian clergy,"
But Iran's crisis-ridden economy depends on trade with Turkey, which analysts say, allows Ankara to take a robust stance against Tehran.
In the Gaza Strip, farmers, customers, and traders of olives lament the sharp decline of olive production this season. The reason for the decline, according to experts, is climate change and high temperatures during the winter.
Less productivity across the coastal territory has impacted Gaza's economy, which has already gone through an Israel-imposed blockade for more than a decade, now.
Olives and olive oil constitute an important form of nutrition for Gaza's 2.2 million residents. They have also made life a bit easier for many thousands of families in Gaza.
Turkey is threatening to launch a military operation against Syrian Kurdish forces after a deadly attack in Syrian territory where Turkish forces are present.
Last month's deadly car bombing in the Turkish-controlled Syrian Afrin region saw Ankara blaming the Syrian Kurdish group YPG.
Turkish forces, along with Syrian rebels, ousted the YPG from the area three years ago. The Kurdish group has been waging a guerrilla campaign against the Turkish troops and their Syrian rebel allies.
But in an address to the country, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had reached his limit.
"The latest attacks against our police and the aggressions against our country were the last drop. We will take the necessary measures to solve this issue as soon as possible," Erdogan said.
Turkey accuses the YPG of having links to Kurdish separatists the PKK fighting in Turkish territory since the 1980s. But the YPG denies any links to the PKK.
Erdogan says Turkish forces and Syrian rebels backed by Turkey will seek to oust the YPG from the strategic town of Tell Rifaat.
Ankara believes that is the launchpad of the Kurdish group's attacks against Turkish forces in Syria.
Russian presence
But Russian forces control Tell Rifaat, along with the airspace.
"If Tell Riffaat will be the focus of the operation, Russian cooperation, or let's say Russian facilitation, would be of utmost importance because Russia has air dominance in the area," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of George Marshall Fund office in Ankara.
"Because the area of Tell Rifaat is not close to the Turkish border, and any operation would be very difficult without Russian approval."
Ankara has long sought Tell Rifaat, as it would link the three areas of Syria under Turkish military control.
But the Syrian town is a vital transportation hub and close to Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo.
Moscow is predicted to be wary of giving Ankara such a valuable prize.
"I think Russia is at least resisting it [Turkish military operation], but everything is possible," said Galip Dalay, associate fellow at Chatham House in London.
"Russia will drive a hard bargain, and at the end of this hard bargain, this process will involve many give-and-takes," Dalay added.
"If Russia thinks it will get something significant in return, then yes, it's a possibility; in the end, let's not forget, two out of three Turkish operations into Syria were facilitated by Russia."
Elections
The United States backs the YPG in its war against the Islamic State group. Thus, any Turkish operation against the Kurdish group could further strain already complicated relations between Turkey and the US.
But Turkey is to hold presidential elections by 2023, and that could factor into Erdogan's calculations.
"Erdogan is in an election year, and the central bank reserves are empty," said Aydin Selcen, a columnist for the Duvar News portal.
"Either the diplomatic and the real cost of any move or any new military operation in Syria will be considered as exorbitant," added Selcen.
"Or maybe such a story will be needed in this election year as a propaganda tool."
Erdogan rarely makes empty threats, given Turkish forces have already carried out three primary Syrian military operations. Still, this latest proposed operation could prove to be the Turkish president's biggest gamble.
Turkey fears another exodus of Syrian refugees as Damascus, backed by Russia, is ramping up attacks against Idlib, the last Syrian rebel enclave. A Turkish military force stands in the way of Syrian troops that are poised to seize Idlib, a move Ankara fears could result in millions of refugees fleeing to Turkey.
Russian-backed Syrian regime forces are stepping up their attacks on Idlib with artillery and airstrikes. Syrian President Bashar Al Assad is pledging to retake the rebel-controlled enclave, home to around four million people, many refugees from across Syria.
For now, Turkish armed forces in Idlib stand in the way of Assad's goal. But analysts warn they are in an increasingly precarious position.
Risk of conflict
"The Turkish government put itself and the Turkish government under this situation, a kind of horns of the dilemma," said Haldun Solmazturk, a retired Turkish army general, now an analyst with the 21st Century Turkey Institute.
"Now they are so closely engaged, they are many risks involved—the risk of direct conflict with Syrian forces, involving even Russian armed forces elements. Risk of conflict with those so-called Idlib emirates controlling the Idlib area," added Solmazturk.
Last year, 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib in an airstrike that Ankara blamed on the Syrian air force. However, many observers believe the sophisticated attack was carried out by Russian planes.
Turkey's military presence in Idlib is part of a deal struck between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. But Moscow accuses Ankara of failing to honor the agreement to purge Idlib of radical jihadist groups along with heavy weaponry.
Turkey and Idlib
Turkey recently reinforced its military presence in Idlib. But the main Turkish opposition CHP Party is warning any Idlib attack threatens a humanitarian disaster.
"When the civilian population feels that such an attack is coming from the Syrian army, supported by the Russian air force. Then the civilians will probably try to find refuge moving towards the north," warned Unal Cevikoz, a CHP member of the Turkish parliament's foreign affairs committee.
"And that, of course, will cause a new migration wave, and it could place serious pressure on the Turkish border. That is the main security risk we are facing," Cevikoz added.
Turkey says it is already hosting nearly five million refugees who fled the Syrian civil war. However, the possibility of another wave of refugees is spurring the main opposition parties to call on Ankara to open talks with Damascus, a move Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled out.
Instead, Erdogan is looking to his relationship with Putin. Analysts suggest Putin benefits from the current tensions over Idlib.
"After six years of interlude, Bashar Al Assad suddenly rushed to Moscow in the middle of the night like a month ago and had a one-on-one meeting with Putin,' observed Aydin Selcen is a columnist with the Duvar News portal.
"And right after that, Erdogan went to (meet Putin) at Sochi(Russian Sea resort)," Selcen continued, "So in a way, Putin shows that he is the kingmaker, that he can both push Erdogan and Basar Al Assad in the interests of Russia and Russia only."
For that reason, some experts predict Putin may broker another compromise over Idlib, ensuring Russia retains its leverage over both Ankara and Damascus.
Dokuz Sekiz news web portal is one of a myriad of independent Turkish outlets that's opened up on social media in recent years. Like many others, it receives international support. But Turkey's presidential head of communication, Fahrettin Altun, is accusing foreign-funded media organizations of acting as a "fifth column," undermining the government at the bidding of foreign powers.
But Dokuz Sekiz chief editor Gokhan Bicici dismisses the allegation, seeing the move as a sign of the government weakening media control.
"Ninety percent of mainstream media outlets are in control of the government. But they are facing the fact that these media outlets are no more effective to have control over the public opinion," said Bicici.
"They [government] are giving these media outlets hundreds of times more financial sources that we can even think about, that we can take from any foundation or foreign source. They want to make legislation that directly targets independent and critical media organizations. They defend these regulations with the thesis that those media outlets are supported by foreign governments."
Social media and news
The proposed legislation comes after social media news portals, such as Dokuz Sekiz, exposed the government's failure to deal with devastating wildfires that wrought death and destruction across much of Turkey's Mediterranean and Aegean regions.
Opposition mayors in the fire-stricken regions used the social media news platforms to call for assistance and expose the lack of support they were receiving, contradicting the government's narrative slavishly broadcast on mainstream media that everything was under control.
The government, anxious to avoid a repeat of such humiliation, is now introducing legislation to regulate and limit foreign funding of social media sites. Domestic and international rights groups have condemned the move. Turkey is already ranked 143 out of 180 countries for media freedom by the Paris-based Journalists Without Borders.
"I am concerned because it has always been very difficult in Turkey to develop a local system for funding independent journalism projects," said Erol Onderoglu, Journalists Without Borders, Turkey's representative.
Foreign funding
Onderoglu says given the climate of government intimidation in Turkey, means most companies avoid advertising on social media platforms, so foreign funding plays a key role.
"Many of the serious news portals are so dynamic thanks to international donor contributions. I think the government knows very well where to target," added Onderoglu.
The proposed legislation includes a jail sentence of up to three years for disseminating fake news. The legislation, if passed, will likely be seized upon by the country's zealous prosecutors; Turkey is already, according to rights groups, among the world's worst jailers of journalists.
But the increasing pressure on independent Turkish news is a sign of its success, claims Atilla Yesilada. Yesilada is a political analyst for Global Source Partners.
"The main motivation is Erdogan's approval ratings are dropping as we speak. Erdogan understands one of the main pillars of his long reign is his ability to control the news flow to the public," said Yesilada.
'But social media, YouTube, and these alternative media have become the number one news source," he added. "And he is getting desperate; we have another Covid wave, I think it's started, and the economy is in a miserable condition."
Disenchanted by traditional outlets
People are increasingly turning to social media for news, likely disenchanted by government-controlled TV stations' constant barrage of feel-good reporting. In addition, Turkey is scheduled for both presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023.
"They[government] have to act aggressively because the time of the government is over; they know that," said Dokuz Sekiz editor Bicici.
"Support of the oppositional parties is growing. They can see it in all the researches. They will try to destroy these social media outlets, But they will not be able to. The government is not as strong as they were in 2015 16 or 17. I think everything they can do against us maybe can even make us stronger."
The government insists the measures are simply aimed at protecting the integrity of the media. But given Erdogan's need to play catch up for the first time in his career, the pressure on independent social media is likely to grow.
Growing numbers of Afghans who fought alongside NATO forces are arriving in Istanbul looking for help from the countries they once worked with.
Youssef, an Afghan helicopter pilot, shows photos of the NATO forces he fought alongside against the Taliban.
"Our advisors they were from British, they were from the U.S., they were from Germans," said Youssef, "We worked shoulder by shoulder in making some plans against the insurgents."
But with the Taliban seizing power Youseff says he is a marked man.
"Right now, we are in the situation we can't stay in Afghanistan because all our database info is in the hand of the Taliban."
Youssef says she was lucky to get a seat on the last scheduled Turkish Airlines flight to Istanbul as the Taliban entered Kabul. Now he's seeking a visa to one of the NATO country's he fought with.
Listening to Youssef is his friend, also a military pilot, who doesn't want to be identified. He came to Istanbul two months ago after receiving Taliban death threats.
"I had some threats from Taliban; there were multiple threats. First, they were sending letters calling us at midnight. Then, they would call from a number they would call my father, they would call me, saying we will put a bomb right behind your door or under your car, and you wont to see your family again."
The pilot is dismissive of Taliban promises not to seek retribution against those who fought against them. "I know the Taliban say they are not hurting anybody, but that is not true," he explains. "We are getting reports every day they are tracking people they are taking people from their homes, and the next day there is no news about them."
Like Youseef, he has made numerous applications to NATO countries for a much-prized visa.
"I tried Germany, then I tried Canada, I still have not got luck with any," the pilot says. "I have worked with Germans; I've worked with British we worked side by side, planning missions, doing missions. But when there is a bad time for you, if you don't get help from a friend or a colleague, it's very disappointing; and very frustrating," he added.
The two pilots live in Istanbul's Zeytinburnu district, dubbed by locals "Afghanburnu," because of its large Afghan population. Many here fled the Afghan conflict years ago.
But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ruling out taking in any new wave of Afghans. He points out the country is already hosting nearly five million refugees, mainly from the Syrian civil war.
Refugee rights groups claim the government's hardline extends even to refusing to allow NATO countries to use Turkey to process Afghans seeking visas.
"The Turkish government is not registering them inside Turkey. So they can't apply for asylum inside Turkey," said Ali Hekmat of Turkey's Afghan Refugee Solidarity Association.
"They are living as illegal refugees as illegal people. They cant travel easily from one city to another city; they can't go to the hospital, so they don't have any chance to stay in Turkey," he added. "Just maybe they are working three months one month, or if they have money, they are starting another trip to Europe."
The two pilots are on tourist visas which will soon expire. But Youssef's fellow pilot has received the good news that his wife and three children were evacuated from Kabul and that the United States is now looking into his case. But Youssef thinks about his wife and two kids still trapped in Kabul.
"I am just thinking of my family if they are safe. I am safe right now. First of all, I think about their lives and nothing else," said Youssef.
Neither man knows when or if they'll leave Istanbul and be reunited with their families. But both say they're lucky to have escaped the Taliban.
Since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, Turkey has been holding talks with the group's leadership. Ankara is looking to play a pivotal role in the new Taliban Afghanistan, but voices caution Turkey risks overplaying its hand.
As the Taliban celebrated with gunfire, as the final refuge of NATO's twenty-year Afghan presence ended with the last American plane flying out of Kabul international airport, its leadership was already reaching out to Ankara.
Taliban looks to Ankara
Despite Turkey being a part of NATO's Afghan military presence, the Taliban is looking to Ankara to help reopen and run Kabul's international airport, severely damaged in NATO's rush to exit the country. As a result, Ankara believes it occupies a unique position in dealing with the group.
"Well, certainly, it considers itself as a Muslim country and the only Muslim country in NATO. It has an advantage when talking to the Taliban," said retired Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp.
"But the Taliban don't seem to see it in the same way," Kuneralp added. "They have said yes, Turkey is a valuable partner as a Muslim country, and so on. But they are still not ready to see a renewed military presence."
Ankara says it talks with the Taliban remain deadlocked over its demand that the Turkish military should secure the airport rather than the Islamist hardliners.
Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusolgu said earlier this month; security is key to Kabul's international airport reopening.
"In my view, the Taliban or Afghan forces could ensure security outside the airport," said Cavusoglu.
"But inside, there should be a security company trusted by the international community or all other companies. Even if airlines, including Turkish Airlines, are keen to fly there, insurance companies would not allow it," the Turkish foreign minister added.
But Cavusoglu, acknowledging the importance of reopening the airport, said talks would continue with the Taliban.
Kabul airport is seen as key to European countries and the United States evacuating citizens still trapped in Afghanistan and Afghans who worked for NATO, western embassies, and NGOs. Last month, German foreign minister Heiko Maas underlined the importance of Turkey reopening the airport.
During August talks with his Turkish counterpart, Maas even offered to share the airport's cost with Ankara.
Turkey - Taliban deal
Turkey could yet come to a deal with the Taliban, with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan eyeing a diplomatic opportunity.
"Erdogan is hoping that the situation in Afghanistan and the need to have some type of engagement with the Taliban will provide some type of political leverage, benefit to Turkey," predicted Asli Aydintasbas, a Senior Fellow at the European Council. "He wants to be the conduit of dialogue, NATO and western dialogue with the Taliban."
Turkey's large construction industry - already operating in Afghanistan - could also benefit under the Taliban. In a recent interview with a Turkish newspaper, a Taliban official said Turkey could play a key role in rebuilding the country, which could be bankrolled by Turkey's close ally, energy-rich Qatar.
But could Ankara be overplaying its hand with its growing aspirations in Afghanistan?
"The neighbors of Afghanistan - that is Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and Iran - all of the big countries, activist countries have very influential with inroads into Afghanistan," explains Soli Ozel teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.
"Can Turkey, by itself because it has historical relations with Afghanistan, be a broker or manager of the developments? I really have doubts about that," Ozel added.
But Erdogan has close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And the two countries are cooperating in other regional hotspots, including Syria and the Caucasus. Zaur Gasimov, an expert on Russian Turkish affairs at Bonn University, argues Afghanistan could be another point of cooperation.
"That would forge and activate a dialogue between Ankara and Moscow with regard to security, bringing the two countries closer to each other. Afghanistan would become a new chapter in a book that already consists of several chapters like Syria, Karabakh, and so on," said Gasimov.
Erdogan is due to visit Moscow soon. NATO has already voiced concern over Turkey's deepening ties with Russia. But analysts say Erdogan could be calculating that he has room to maneuver and create a role for his country as Afghanistan's new rulers forge a relationship with the rest of the world.
A collaborative investigation into Pegasus spyware, based on information accessed by the France non-profit Forbidden Stories and Amnesty International and shared with a host of publications, has revealed a list of potential targets for surveillance.
The phone numbers of over 40 Indian journalists appear on a leaked list of potential targets for surveillance. Forensic tests have confirmed that some of them were successfully snooped upon by an unidentified agency using Pegasus spyware.
Though the Indian government found itself at the heart of an espionage scandal which created a huge stir across the entire political world, coverage in the mainstream press was not commensurate. The government stonewalled queries on whether it had sanctioned the surveillance.
Media commentators say the use of the Israeli NSO Group’s military-grade spyware by the world’s largest democracy to hack the phones of investigative reporters is the last nail in the coffin of journalism in India. Founders of The Wire among targets The leaked database of potential targets of surveillance includes phone numbers of two founding editors of The Wire, a news portal, its diplomatic editor and two of its regular contributors.
“The Indian government has been silent so far. This is most surprising as they have not replied properly to questions in the Indian parliament. The Prime Minister and the home minister have not said a word... even a general kind of statement that this spyware is a threat to democracy and needs to be capped,” M K Venu, a founding editor told RFI.
Now, senior journalists have approached India ‘s Supreme Court seeking investigation by a sitting or former judge of the court into allegations of use of Pegasus spyware for surveillance of journalists, activists and others.
They have argued that such targeted surveillance using military-grade software is a grossly disproportionate invasion of the right to privacy. Heated debate in a tough industry The investigation comes at a time of heated, polarizing debate in India's fiercely competitive news industry.
Many Indian journalists hope that this controversy will be a wake-up call for Indian journalism and the authenticity of the news must not be compromised.
India is considered “one of the world’s most dangerous countries for journalists trying to do their job properly”, according to Paris-based non-profit Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The NGO has painted a very grim picture of journalism in India after Narendra Modi came to power.
The RSF ranked India at an appalling 142 out of 180 countries—below the UAE, Myanmar and Hungary—in its 2021 World Press Freedom Index.
Journalists in India face “every kind of attack, including police violence, ambushes by political activists and reprisals instigated by criminal groups or corrupt local officials”, the RSF says.
With a resurgent Taliban now re-established all over Afghanistan, thousands of anxious refugees in India continue to live in fear and uncertainty, wondering what the future holds for the family and friends they left behind.
Twenty-six-year-old Babar Khan has been tuning into the news regularly to get the latest updates on how the Taliban have been advancing in Afghanistan.
He runs a simple restaurant that serves traditional Afghan cuisine and delicacies in one of the congested lanes, just opposite south Delhi’s shopping mall, an area often referred to as “Little Kabul”.
“The city is now in the hands of the Taliban. Apart from that, huge parts of the country are now under Taliban control, they have removed the government from Afghanistan” Babar told RFI. Concerned Afghan escapees A sizeable Afghan refugee population lives in pockets of different localities in the Indian capital, where they run restaurants, bakeries and confectionery shops.
Hundreds of Afghan families have made the so-called Khirki Extension their home over the last few years, having fled Afghanistan. The latest news of the violence has left them anxious for their relatives back home.
“I think of my parents who are still there in Panjshir Valley in the north-east. Though it is safe for the moment, I do not want to watch history repeat itself,” Sikandar Naseem told RFI in Dari, the local language.
Sikandar arrived in the capital three years back and was hoping to bring his parents also but knows that is not possible under the current circumstances. Huge number of Afghan refugees More than 11,000 officially registered Afghan refugees have sought shelter in India, excluding asylum-seekers and those who are not yet registered, which takes their actual number much higher.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, in 2019 there were approximately 40,000 refugees and asylum-seekers registered in India. Afghans are the second-largest community, comprising 27 percent of the group.
"India has helped train and supplied arms to the anti-Taliban supporters. We also have a significant non-military stake in Afghanistan by way of construction of roads, dams and medical treatment," said Ravi Nair, Executive Director of the South Asian Human Rights Documentation Centre.
"Because of our Afghan connection, it is possible that India may continue its two-decade policy and allow a small number of refugees to seek shelter here," Nair said. An uncertain future A record number of civilians have been killed as a result of the conflict in the last six months and the UN blames most of the 1,600 civilian deaths on the Taliban and other anti-government elements.
The fighting has also forced many people to flee their homes and around 300,000 Afghans have been displaced since the start of the year.
“Many of the men in my village have been killed by the Taliban while several are missing. It is very frightening the way the Taliban are advancing and I can only feel helpless,” Idris Hasan, a grocery shop dealer from Mazar-i-Sharif told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.
“I have no way of knowing what’s happening on the ground and I don’t know what to believe. I am constantly living in fear,” remarks Hasan.
What awaits Afghanistan is still undecided but, for these refugees worried about those they left behind, the wait will be an uneasy one.
Turkish and French Presidents are pledging to ease tensions after months of trading insults, but difficulties between them remain, especially over their increasingly contrary interests in Africa. Following a meeting, on the sidelines of June’s Nato summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that he had agreed with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on the need to revive bilateral cooperation and regional consultation.
French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian declared after the Erdogan Macron meeting, that Turkey and France are in what he described as a "recovery period.” The French and Turkish leaders have, until now, been engaged in an escalating war of words, competing for international influence.
“We can talk about a reset with France,” says Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, but he warns against too much optimism of a sustainable diplomatic breakthrough.
“It's a question about how deep that reset will go. This is part of a broader reset that Turkey has been trying in terms of its foreign relations with the West. However, none of the areas of disagreement with France have been resolved,” added Ulgen. Libya as a major source of discord Libya remains a crucial point of tension. France and Turkey backed rival sides in the Libyan civil war, and Paris has been leading international calls for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the north African country.
Last year, Turkish and French warships almost clashed off the shores of Libya over French claims that Turkey was violating an international arms embargo. But Ulgen says both sides now recognise the need for diplomacy.
“There is realisation by both Ankara and Paris that some progress can be achieved, if the two are less confrontational and work diplomatically towards some sort of negotiated formula,” said Ulgen. Potential allies against China A Turkish presidential advisor has suggested France and Turkey could extend cooperation beyond Libya to the rest of Africa, in an effort to contain China's growing influence.
Ankara is building up its presence on the continent, especially in the Sahel region. But Turkish moves to develop ties with former French colonies like Niger and Mali are causing alarm in Paris, says Jalel Harchouai, a senior fellow at the Geneva-based Global Initiative.
Harchaoui warns the Sahel could become an increasing point of tension rather than cooperation.
“There is a real rivalry. There is an actual competition in the Sahel. France is getting weaker and weaker in the Sahel, all areas which used to be secure like Chad are shaky. Turkey wants to be present militarily, it is already very present diplomatically, and it's very ambitious commercially.
"We are talking about a time horizon of fifteen or thirty years. So if France sees an adversary in that, I think that France is correct because there is not enough room for both former colonisers of the area,” said Harchaoui. Erdogan as champion of oppressed Muslims For now, both French and Turkish presidents appear interested in downplaying their differences. But that could change with next year's French presidential elections, where the role of Islam in French society will be a campaign issue.
Erdogan portrays himself as a defender of Muslim rights worldwide and has in the past accused Macron of islamophobia – an issue Erdogan also uses for leverage in majority-Muslim African countries, much to the concern of diplomats in Paris.
Afghanistan has called on India to engage with the Taliban once American troops return home. The signals became public just one day after the US vacated its biggest airbase near Kabul in a step towards ending its 20-year occupation of the war-wrecked nation.
The Pentagon has said the withdrawal of US forces will be completed ahead of the original deadline of September.
“A safe, orderly drawdown enables us to maintain an ongoing diplomatic presence, support the Afghan people and the government, and prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threatens our homeland,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said.
And as the new deadline neared, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of an “aroma of relationship” while Afghan President Ashraf Ghani urged Delhi to reach out to the “nationalist” Taliban.
“India can play a very constructive role here,” said Farid Mamundzay, President Ghani’s top diplomat in Delhi as the Taliban overran one Afghan district after another in blistering attacks which have continued since the US military pullout started.
Ambassador Mamundzay told Republic TV that India should use its regional clout to persuade the “Taliban to let go of violence and talk to Afghan people in a way where we would reach a dignified and lasting peace.”
The resilient Taliban action is reminiscent of Mujahedeen-led attacks during the 1989 Soviet military pullout, which led to political turmoil followed by civil war that lasted until the US attempted to counter the Taliban regime in November 2001.
Analysts such as Harsh Pant of Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation says US President Joe Biden’s government has acknowledged India as a potential peace-maker in Afghanistan.
“India’s role is certainly going to be very important in going forward, as demonstrated by the fact that the Biden administration brought India back into the peace process earlier this year,” analyst Pant told public broadcaster RSTV. India takes Taliban to the UN India, which has close and friendly ties with Afghanistan, told the United Nations Security Council late last month that violence must end for the peace talks to begin.
“For enduring peace in Afghanistan, terrorist safe havens and sanctuaries must be dismantled immediately and terrorist supply chains disrupted,” Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said.
Some South Asian diplomats also accuse Pakistan of backing the Taliban Islamic militia in order to blunt arch-rival India’s growing influence with President Ghani’s administration in war-torn Afghanistan.
“Pakistan beyond doubt is helping the Taliban in every possible manner including arming it to the teeth and so the solution to the problem really lies in controlling Pakistan and this is something the international community has to do,” added Prabhu Dayal, a former Indian ambassador to Islamabad. Pakistan targets India But Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has rejected the accusations, asking questions about the presence of Indian nationals in Afghanistan.
“At times we feel that their presence is perhaps larger than it ought to be because they do not share a border with you,” Qureshi told Afghan media group TOLOnews in an interview on the stuttering Afghan peace process.
But the sideshow aside, Pakistan is under pressure to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table.
India, which has spent hundreds of millions of euros in infrastructure projects, recently issued a 13-point security advisory for Indians deployed in that country.
“We’re concerned by the violence there based on which we have issued an advisory,” foreign ministry spokesman Arindam Bagchi told a news conference.
Ethiopia has started the second phase of filling the reservoir of its mega-dam on the upper Blue Nile, according to the authorities in neighbouring Egypt and Sudan, raising tensions ahead of a UN Security Council meeting on the divisive project.
Both Cairo and Khartoum said they had been notified by Addis Ababa that the second phase of filling had begun at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Egypt's irrigation ministry on Monday expressed its "firm rejection of this unilateral measure" and Sudan's foreign ministry on Tuesday followed suit, labelling the move a "risk and imminent threat".
In Addis Ababa, the offices of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Irrigation Minister Seleshi Bekele were refusing requests for comment.
The huge dam, set to be Africa's largest hydroelectric project when completed, has sparked an almost decade-long diplomatic stand-off between Addis Ababa and downstream nations Egypt and Sudan.
Ethiopia says the project is essential to its development, but Cairo and Khartoum fear it could restrict their citizens' water access.
Both governments have been urging Addis Ababa to sign a binding deal over the dam's operations, calling on the UN Security Council to take up the matter. Security Council to meet this week Thursday's Security Council meeting was requested by Tunisia on behalf of Egypt and Sudan.
France's ambassador to the UN said last week that the council itself can do little apart from bringing all the sides together and "encourage them to get back to the negotiations".
Tunisia has also submitted a draft resolution calling on Ethiopia to cease filling the reservoir, diplomatic sources said Tuesday.
The text calls on the three countries to resume negotiations and to finalise the details of an agreement on filling within six months.
It urges the "three countries to refrain from making any statements, or taking any action that may jeopardise the negotiation process, and urges Ethiopia to refrain from continuing to unilaterally fill the GERD reservoir."
No date has been set for the draft resolution vote and diplomatic sources have said it is unlikely it will be as early as Thursday's meeting.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has initiated the controversial building of a multi-billion-dollar canal intended to bypass the busy waters of the Bosphorus Strait, despite grim environmental warnings and major Russian security concerns.
In a blaze of publicity, Erdogan last month laid a ceremonial foundation stone close to Istanbul, starting the construction of the 45-kilometer canal intended to link the Black and Marmara Seas.
"This is going to be a brand-new page in Turkey's advancement," declared the Turkish leader in a speech at the opening ceremony. "On the path to this development, we will leap forward; this will save Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway," he added.
The canal will provide an alternative route from the Bosphorus Strait, which cuts through Turkey's biggest city, Istanbul, and is one of the world's busiest waterways.
Erdogan said the alternative channel would offer a more efficient, faster, and safer passage. 'A nightmare project' But Istanbul's opposition mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, has voiced alarm.
"I am sweating when I talk about this channel because I can feel this is a nightmare; I can feel it deep inside," said Imamoglu last month, "I listened to tens of briefings from the scientists who are all warning against it."
Imamoglu says that the project threatens the city's water supplies and risks wider environmental consequences in the region's delicate balance of interconnected seas.
"If you are connecting two marine bodies, you have to ask the opinion of marine scientists, which they have not done," said marine biologist Professor Cemal Saydam.
"Scientifically, it's going to devastate the Sea of Marmara, and it's going to devastate the Black Sea for sure, and it's going to change the whole water budget of the Mediterranean Sea, as well, because these are interconnected seas," added Saydam. Leading banks refuse project finance The government dismisses such warnings, claiming it has carried out the necessary research. But most of Turkey's leading banks refuse to finance the canal, with an estimated cost of up to 60 billion euros, citing international commitments to support only environmentally sustainable projects.
Piling on the pressure, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition CHP, warned international investors that any loans made to finance the canal would not be paid if he took office. Support for Erdogan's AKP Party is at record lows.
The canal also represents a point of tension with Russia. Erdogan has said the 1936 International Montreux Convention, which limits the size and access of foreign warship to the Black Sea, will not cover the bypass channel.
Moscow considers the convention vital to maintaining the Black Sea as a Russian sphere of influence.
"The Montreux Convention is the only way which makes the Black Sea at the same time a Russian sea because the Russian navy is there dominating. And the American warships are limited there," said Huseyin Bagci, head of the Ankara-based Foreign Policy Institute. "So it's good for Russia to have Montreux, maybe more than Turkey."
Nato-Russian tensions have been rising following the Russian occupation of Ukraine's Crimea territory. A bargaining chip with the Kremlin? While questions remain over whether the funds exist to complete the canal, Zaur Gasimov of Germany's Bonn University says Ankara sees the project as a bargaining chip with Moscow.
"The Montreux agreement and how Turkey deals with it that also gives new possibilities for Ankara to promote its interests in its interaction with Russia. That also gives certain leverage for Ankara to influence the situation the dynamics around the Black Sea region and even also to deepen the cooperation with the United States," said Gasimov.
Analysts say the importance of access to the Black Sea is likely to grow in coming years, as Nato-Russia tensions escalate over Ukraine.
India’s government has promised support for the uncounted number of children who are either orphaned or have lost a parent in the Covid-19 pandemic that so far has infected more than 30 million people in the country.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promise came as suspicious offers to adopt Covid orphans surfaced on the social media amid worries parentless kids could walk into traps laid out by child traffickers.
The government said it will pay stipends from a million-rupee (11,000-euro) fund which it will be set up for each of the Covid-affected children to help them through schooling until 18 years of age.
The grant will then be transferred in their names once they turn 23, to steer them into stable adulthood.
"The prime minister said that in such trying times it is our duty, as a society, to care for our children and instill hope for a bright future.
“All children who have lost both parents or surviving parent or legal guardian or adoptive parents due to Covid-19 will be supported,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.
The state will also reimburse other expenses and help kids with scholarships, according to the 29 May pledge which drew applause in India where children account for 39 percent of the 1.3 billion population.
Numbers vary Estimates of the number of children orphaned or minors left with one parent vary widely in India.
Late last month, the Ministry of Women and Child Development said 577 children were orphaned in April and May when a second surge buffeted the country.
According to media reports, a child rights group put the number of children who lost one or both parents at 30,071 but the national agency stressed all the deaths were not linked to Covid-19.
Some 3,621 children were orphaned, 26,176 lost one parent and 274 were abandoned by 5 June, the National Commission for Protection of Children Rights (NCPCR) was quoted as saying.
The details were given to the courts just days after NCPCR chairman Priyank Kanoongo sounded a nationwide alert on 26 May.
“The commission has been receiving many complaints in the past month or so, alleging that there are private people, organisations who are involved in data collection of such children …” NCPCR said in an advisory to Indian states.
“It has become essential that the rights of children are upheld and protected and there is tracking of each child who has become orphan or has lost either of the parents to Covid-19,” it added.
Shobha Gupta, a lawyer, argued orphaned children can be adopted only through established legal procedures.
“Social media posts are circulating that children are up for adoption. This is plainly illegal and violates the Juvenile Justice Act,” Gupta told the top court.
Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, has ordered local officials to track adoption-seekers on the social media to fight off potential traffickers. Helping hands for Covid orphans But observers say some of the offers were perhaps a result of an outpouring of concern for the children orphaned by the second wave, which has accounted for 57 percent of India’s 393,000 Covid deaths.
“But at the same time, one must follow the law of the land,” said Debyani, a housewife in the southern city of Bangalore, where SOS Children’s Village said it has taken in around 260 Covid orphans this year.
“We have enough ‘Mothers’ right now to take care of the children already placed in the Village but we are looking for more as we may need them in the future,” said S. Baskaran, director of the private charity.
Authorities in the state of Telangana have said they will hand out free mobile phones as a protection tool for Covid orphans in the southern state where the virus has killed more than 3,500 people.
"They can find help just a click away and can contact any of the officers, numbers of whom have been saved in the phone's contact list,” said T. Akkeshwar Rao, a state government official.
Many of India’s 28 states have come out with separate promises which include laptops for school-goers, hostels or even cash to pay for weddings, in support of India’s orphan children.
The tourism industry of Agra – the northern Indian city which is home to the Taj Mahal - has been brought to its knees in the past year by the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic.
India's top tourist attraction, the Taj Mahal, a major money spinner for the tourism industry, wears a forlorn and desolate look.
The 17th-century architectural marvel finally reopened last week but the tourism industry revolving around the monument of love remains crippled.
Krishna Rathore, a 29-year-old tourist guide, wanders aimlessly around the western gate of the complex, hoping to catch a local tourist as Covid cases register a significant fall following the devastating second wave.
“I have been coming out every morning for the last few days, hoping I can at least show anyone around the perimeter of the complex and make some money. But I go home disappointed,” Rathore told RFI.
A third generation guide, Krishna follows in his father’s and grandfather’s footsteps. He joined the profession when he was 25 years old but is now actively contemplating taking on another vocation.
Like Rathore, around 2,500 registered guides have had their lives upended because of the shutdown, many unsure how the future will play out. Many of the guides are not visible in the vast complex that encompasses nearly 17 hectares.
“I have decided to do odd jobs in Agra and sometimes travel out for contractual labor. My tourist work is finished,” says Rafiq, another guide, who has been working at the Taj for 7 years. Difficult recovery of tourism sector Apart from guides, hotel owners, restaurants and tour operators, many other stakeholders see a bleak future ahead of them since tourism is unlikely to recover anytime soon, even when the monument is reopened to the public.
“The segmentation in the tourism industry feeds each other and that is why there has to be major stimulus to revive the sector. Destination weddings and incentive meetings are one way forward, as they generate valuable income,” says Hari Sukumar, vice-president of the up-market Jaypee Palace hotel.
The famous white-marble mausoleum which houses the graves of Mughal emperor Shah Jahan and his wife Mumtaz Mahal usually draws 7 to 8 million visitors every year while 737,000 foreign tourists visited the monument in 2019.
Agra has over a dozen five-star hotels and 400 other budget hotels; the hospitality industry in the city alone employs around 400,000 people. Authorities say there are approximately 500-700,000 people who are dependent on the tourism sector either directly or indirectly.
Several other businesses like the handicrafts emporiums, as well as those engaged in leather and marble inlay work have been hit hard by the shutdown of the monument.
“This pandemic has destroyed the tourism industry and livelihoods have been upended. It will take at least 2 years to get back to normalcy even if the lockdown is lifted,” Amar Singh Rathore, president of the market association told RFI. An uncertain future Many of the shops in the Taj complex have been shut for over a year and apart from sending off their workforce to their respective homes, the owners now ponder a disturbing future ahead.
After being shut for some six months due to the coronavirus last year, the Archaelogical Survey of India began restoration of protected monuments, including the Taj Mahal, Agra Fort and Fatehpur Sikri.
Rajiv Saxena, vice-president of the Tourist Guild of Agra, who also runs a tour service, believes the shutdown in the city has put back businesses by several years.
“I don’t see things getting back to normalcy before 2023 and the losses will be immense. It is unfortunate that neither the local administration nor the state government has mapped out people’s requirements in this pandemic and come to their help,” Saxena told RFI.
According to estimates drawn up by the Tourist Guild, the financial losses on account of the shutdown amount to approximately 50 billion Indian Rupees (563 million euros) and will require a substantial financial stimulus for its revival.
“Actually, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Much thought has to go into revitalising Agra and that is not going to be easy,” Rajiv Saxena adds.
The Indian Navy vessel Shardul recently ferried oxygen from the Middle East instead of the military tanks it is designed to carry. The 4,259 nautical mile voyage scripted another golden verse in the Indian military’s odyssey of saving millions of lives in struggling Covid hospitals.
The vessel entered Indian waters just days before France offered a second batch of oxygen generators as part of its “largest solidarity operation”.
Paris also promised oxygen concentrators and ventilators for hospitals strained by an explosive second Covid wave which killed 170,000 between April and May this year.
General Vipin Rawat, India’s Chief of Defence Staff, said military transport planes were deployed to save additional time.
“We were able to utilise the air force to move things from abroad in a faster timeframe than the sea route,” the general told a TV station.
Military flights, which started on 16 April, shuttled back and forth for oxygen refills in a joint exercise with the navy.
As of 27 May, the air force clocked 166 international sorties logging 820 flying hours carting supplies from Thailand, Britain, Germany, Belgium, Australia, Indonesia and Israel.
“People were dying … So we threw in everything,” added a military pilot, referring to the oxygen shortages during the devastating surge which added 11 million Covid-19 cases to India’s current official tally of 28.5 million infections.
Pictures of bodies cremated at a parking lot in Delhi, patients dying without oxygen in hospitals, and crematoriums working non-stop also galvanised efforts to put an end to the catastrophe before a projected third wave.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week praised the air force and navy for the supplies that somewhat blunted the impact of the brutal second wave. The maritime mercy mission The navy also deployed its prized warships to ferry oxygen containers from countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia after evacuating 4,000 stranded citizens from neighbouring countries.
“This is an unprecedented situation for us,” Indian naval chief, Admiral Kadambir Singh, said in a message as he ordered all hands to battle stations.
“We will collectively rise as ‘team navy’… and do our best for the nation, for the navy and our communities,” the admiral said. Army puts more boots on the ground India’s million-plus army recalled its doctors and medical personnel from frontline posts to man Covid hospitals and offered an extension to those scheduled to retire from service.
The army had already installed 13 quarantine facilities, ramped up 113 hospitals, and added 9,000 Covid critical care beds during the pandemic’s first wave last year.
Army lieutenant general Madhuri Kantikar, a paediatrician, summed up the exercise in a sentence.
“Being a woman and a mother, you have eyes at the back to get out of the box ideas and it does help you," the three-star general, leading the army’s massive medical operation, told media.
Even military scientists chipped in with a drug to heal Covid patients they successfully launched a month after rolling out a mobile testing laboratory in April. General’s lingering doubts But H.S. Panag, a retired lieutenant general, argued the government appeared reluctant to fully utilise the military to combat the pandemic.
“First, the government seems apprehensive about its incompetency getting exposed,” Panag said in an article he published on 6 May.
“Second, the military hierarchy has itself failed to advise the government about its capabilities and core competencies, and on how best to utilise the resources of the armed forces,” the commander alleged.
Turkey's military presence in Libya is under growing pressure amid increasing international and Libyan calls for all foreign forces to leave the country. The pressure is predicted to grow as critical players in the Libyan civil war meet in Berlin this month.
Turkey has deployed hundreds of soldiers and encouraged thousands of Syrian fighters to support the Libyan Government of National Accord in its battle against forces led by General Khalifa Hafta, who is backed by Russian and Sudanese mercenaries.
Now, with a ceasefire in force and elections scheduled for December, pressure is growing for all foreign troops to leave Libya.
"There have been two UN Security Council Resolutions already for the removal of all foreign presence from Libya, be it Turkish, Russian, Sudanese, so yes, the political terrain has changed very much," said Aya Burweila, a visiting lecturer at the Hellenic National Defense College in Athens.
"There has been an increasing realisation that Turkey was building up its presence on the Mediterranean in Libya," she added. "So I think the EU, as well as the United States, had a rude awakening about Turkish intentions in Libya." Turkish forces claim to have been 'invited' Ankara insists Libya's internationally recognised government has invited Turkish forces. But in May, Libya's Foreign Minister Najla El-Mangoush called for all foreign fighters to quit, including Turkish soldiers.
The Turkish military has already established an airbase in Libya and, according to Turkish media reports, is seeking to build a naval base. The growing military presence has drawn intense criticism from France, with Ankara and Paris increasingly competing for regional influence.
Ilhan Uzgel, an international relations analyst who writes for the Turkish news portal Duvar, predicts that Ankara will likely yield to international pressure and partly reduce its military presence.
"The Arabs will not like it (Turkish military in Libya), the Libyan population will not like it in the mid to longer term. But for now, in order to maintain the balance of the forces in the country, they (Libya) may allow a small symbolic number of Turkish troops there. And This will make Erdogan's job easier - he can claim Turkey still has a military presence in this country.
"But Turkey will definitely withdraw the jihadists, the fighters that they carried all the way from Syria. Turkey can maintain a small number of liaison officers there, not a combat force, not a tactical force. But Turkey's military presence there is a very strong bargaining chip for Turkey," said Uzgel. Ankara regards Libya as a bargaining token A US defense department report last year said Turkey sent thousands of paid Syrian fighters to Libya. Ankara denies any Syrian fighters deployed in Libya have links to Jihadist groups. Turkey is currently seeking to improve relations with both Washington and the European Union, and cooperation over Libya is seen by Ankara as substantial leverage.
Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin defends his country's military deployment to Libya but says they are ready to withdraw under certain circumstances.
"If Turkey did not send out a military force, we will be seeing a very big conflict," said Casin, "How can we withdraw Turkish military forces? It will be possible if the other foreign forces withdraw their military people. "
However, Casin says the Turkish military can play a new important regional role in Libya.
"Turkey did not want military influence in Libya; we don't need it. But Turkey and also European Union maybe work together. Turkey aims to support the Frontex European Union border security. This is not only for Turkey, even Italy, and also Malta support this situation," added Casin.
With Libya one of the main gateways for migrants seeking to enter the European Union illegally, analysts claim Ankara is likely calculating that helping to secure the EU's southern border can give it essential future leverage.
The latest Israeli attacks on Gaza have damaged many hundreds of buildings, including homes, mosques, factories and government-run facilities. As the reconstruction process begins once again, there is a debate about who will administer the millions of dollars available, with both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority claiming the right to supervise re-building.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has vowed to provide millions of dollars in aid to help the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.
The top diplomat of US President Joe Biden reiterated support for Israel's right to defend itself against rocket attacks by the Islamist group Hamas, which he said must not benefit from the aid effort.
But Blinken also stressed "the commitment of the United States to rebuilding the relationship with the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian people, a relationship built on mutual respect and also a shared conviction that Palestinians and Israelis alike deserve equal measures of security, freedom opportunity and dignity".
That language signalled a significant change in tone from the previous Trump administration, whose Middle East peace plan was rejected by Palestinians as heavily biased in Israel's favour.
"The United States will be moving forward with the process of reopening our consulate in Jerusalem," Blinken said after meeting Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas in Ramallah in May. Hamas must not benefit from this effort Blinken promised financial aid to Palestinians and emergency assistance to help rebuild the impoverished Gaza Strip, as well as efforts to shore up the ceasefire between Israel and the enclave's rulers Hamas.
"The United States will notify Congress of our intention to provide $75 million in additional development and economic assistance to the Palestinians in 2021," he said.
That was to come on top of $5.5 million dollars in immediate disaster assistance for Gaza and about $32 million for an emergency humanitarian appeal by the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, he said.
Blinken reiterated that the United States -- which considers Hamas a terrorist group -- "will work with partners to ensure that Hamas does not benefit from these reconstruction efforts".
Palestinian President Abbas said his administration was ready to "work directly to help with the reconstruction of Gaza," while stressing his support for "peaceful and popular resistance" by Palestinians against Israeli policies.
As a devastating second wave of coronavirus has swept India in recent weeks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s well-crafted public image has taken a beating.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi marked its seventh anniversary in power in India this week but tough questions are being asked of his leadership as public trust has been dented.
The pandemic’s crippling second wave has made India the worst-hit country in the world. Since the beginning of May, over 120,000 people are officially reported to have died, making it the deadliest month during the pandemic.
Thousands of people even in the big cities had to fend for themselves as public anger mounted.
Video footage of Modi, unmasked, addressing huge election rallies, stood in stark contrast to images of exhausted doctors and nurses desperately trying to create more capacity in the country’s decrepit, underfunded health system.
“He needed to get out and sit in front of people, talk to them and tell them what he’s doing to save lives. Nothing of that sort happened,” said Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi.
“This is too immense a period of suffering and it will be too hard to convince people that this was just down to ‘divine will’ or individual failures to wear a mask,” Ashutosh Varshney, director of the Centre for Contemporary South Asia at Brown University in the US wrote in a recent article.
Since he came to power in 2014, Modi has been able to expand the BJP's footprint nationwide with a model that relies heavily on public relations and one that portrays him as India's savior.
He has been able to stave off several major crises in the past few years, such as demonetisation, the Delhi riots and even the migrant crisis during the national lockdown last year.
However, the current crisis has exposed the chinks in his armour. His centralised style of leadership seemed reassuring last year but proved hollow this time as the number of deaths spiraled in the second wave.
Virtually everyone has been touched by this pandemic and the outrage that’s being directed towards Modi is particularly from the urban middle classes where he traditionally has a strong base of support.
Even the vaccination programme has been crippled by severe shortages blamed on an earlier lack of orders from the government, and state governments have been pitted against each other in the struggle for supplies. Just under 3 percent of India’s 1.3 billion-plus population had been vaccinated.
Insiders in the party point out that significant reserves of political capital have been lost and the government will have to tread with extreme caution in the years leading to the 2024 general elections.
“India is perhaps at an inflection point itself . . . like the US was last year where it desperately needs to find its Joe Biden,” said Deepanshu Mohan, an associate professor and director, Centre for New Economics Studies at O.P. Jindal University.
“Someone who can go beyond ideological constructs to use his lived experience as a guiding force for leading a nation’s citizenry to building back better,” he adds.
The pandemic has wreaked havoc and destroyed the lives and livelihoods of millions, and so many more are likely to be affected in the weeks to come.
The recent decision by international internet companies to comply with Turkish government demands that the companies open offices in Turkey is stoking fears over the future of country’s last remaining platform for independent journalism.
“We are worried about this decision of the internet platforms to open offices here,” said Gokhan Bicici, editor in chief of Dokuz8Haber, “but if they did not open than the government might have shut them out of Turkey which would be worse for us.”
Dokuz8Haber is one of a growing number of news portals in Turkey. From its Istanbul office reports are compiled by both professional and citizen journalists. The site relies on social media, which has become the main platform for independent reporting explains Bicici
“Ninety percent of the media apparatus is in control of the state, of the government in Turkey. There is no mainstream in Turkey anymore. It is an apparatus of the government against the society. So, social media is the only free base we can use to reach the society.
"People can follow trustworthy news only through social media. This is the only field which is not under the full control of the government . . . it’s a kind of emergency place for us. That is why Dokuz8 is organised and based on social media.” Grim global press freedom ranking The Paris-based group Reporters Without Borders in April ranked Turkey 153rd in the world in terms of media freedom. Yet Turkey’s government wants to extend its control of media to the Internet by pressuring social media platforms to open offices in Turkey.
This will put the companies’ operations in the country under Turkish jurisdiction – with controls that Ankara claims are similar to those of other European countries.
Yaman Akdeniz of the Istanbul based Freedom of Expression Society admits there are some similarities to legislation being considered in Europe, but questions how Turkey will apply restrictions given the country’s poor record on press freedom.
“The government, in addition to warnings and financial penalties, and advertisement bans, was going to impose a bandwidth restriction ban. The government was going to throttle the servers of these social media platform providers who did not comply with having legal representation in Turkey,” said Akdeniz.
“So as of today all the social media platform providers who have over one million users daily in Turkey say they will have legal representation in Turkey. So they are part of the Turkish law and they are expected to comply with the requests coming from the Turkish authorities,” he added. Turkey leads Twitter's removal requests Twitter, Google, Facebook, Tiktok and others have opened offices in Istanbul, meeting Ankara’s April deadline. Twitter says Turkey submits the most requests to remove postings and users, but up to this point, the company has complied with only a few.
However, Gokhan Ozturan executive manager of Dokuz8Haber says news portals like his, fear these social media platforms will become more compliant with Turkish authorities.
“Twitter for example would only send us a notification that they have received a court order from the Turkish authorities to remove a certain tweet, but they did not comply with it because it does not violate the community standards.
"So when the government is trying to force social media platforms to be present in Turkey their aim is to remove articles they don’t like and this poses a great threat. If these social media companies become a tool to increase this oppression in Turkey, then it will become an even bigger challenge for us, and this is the biggest concern we have at the moment.”
Several social media platforms have issued statements saying they remain committed to freedom of expression. Turkey heads towards crucial elections Meantime, the offices of Dokuz8 are full of workers with a new studio under construction, part of the site’s efforts to expand its operations ahead of expected early elections in Turkey.
Bicici is closely supervising the work, while he worries about the government efforts to tighten the grip on social media, he says he is focusing on expanding Dokuz8 operations, to provide Turkey with independent nationwide news
"Dokuz8 will be specialised and centralised more on local media in the future. And the main target is to be able in the next election in Turkey is to cover the whole election from every district in Turkey and we are close to this mission,
"Because I think the next election will be the most important in Turkish history. That’s why it's very important to coordinate the news flow from every district in Turkey. And Dokuz8 is I think the only platform to have such a capacity."
Dokuz8 and others are banking on social media platforms remaining free and open to enable their efforts to provide independent news as Turkey heads into one of its most critical times.
Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas's decision, announced in April, to indefinitely postpone elections could rekindle tensions between his secular Fatah movement and Hamas Islamists, piling pressure on Abbas to set a new timeline for the first Palestinian elections in 15 years.
In late April, Abbas declared that legislative and presidential polls set for May and July respectively, should not be held until Israel guarantees voting can take place in annexed east Jerusalem.
But even before the Palestinian president announced the delay, Abbas' critics forecast that he might use the complex Jerusalem issue as a pretext to put off a vote in which Fatah risks losing ground.
Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey research, says the 85-year-old Palestinian president had now confirmed those suspicions.
"It is clear that this delay is more about the expectation of the outcomes of the elections rather than the issue of Jerusalem."
Shikaki described Abbas's unilateral decision to postpone the votes as destructive.
"It is not Israel who defeated the Palestinians, it is Abbas. He is the one making this decision," Shikaki says. Failed attempt to bring Fatah and Hamas closer Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority based in the occupied West Bank, called the polls as part of a push to mend ties with its long-term rival Hamas, which runs Gaza.
But as the election approached, Hamas was seen as better organised than Fatah, which also faced challenges from splinter groups backed by powerful former insiders.
All Palestinian factions insist that voting must be allowed in east Jerusalem, home to some 300,000 Palestinians,
Hamas and other Abbas critics have said that hinging elections on whether Israel allows voting in Jerusalem gives the Jewish state an unacceptable veto over the Palestinian right to vote.
Following the postponement, Hamas accused Abbas of perpetrating a "coup" against their partnership.
For five years now, the Beethoven Foundation for Art and Culture in Germany has been organizing "Sonotopia", an international artistic residence in three countries that revolves mainly around the sound identity of a city’s every day sounds and how they are perceived by the listeners.
In a novel way to educate Liberian citizens about the Covid-19 pandemic, President George Weah has released a song to raise awareness about coronavirus.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could be facing the biggest ever threat to his power.It comes from two former close allies who’ve formed new political parties and are calling for a more democratic Turkey.
Female students at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, in Mexico City, are occupying faculties and schools to protest gender violence.
The Kenyan port city of Mombasa has been in the spotlight over the years following allegations of the illegal importation of smuggled goods. The port is also used by drug traffickers to import and export narcotics.
In recent months some of the highest levels of trade restrictions seen in decades have threatened to boil over into a prolonged trade war. The United States is at the centre of the storm, having imposed tariffs on imports from numerous countries.
South Korea, one of the worst-affected countries in the coronavirus epidemic outside China, on Tuesday reported fewer than 150 new cases for the first time in two weeks.
Eighty thousand women marched through Mexico City on Sunday, to protest against femicides, and a rising tide of violent crime, which they insist is receiving little or no attention from the police and the courts.
Violent scenes have erupted on the small Greek island of Lesbos, where thousands of refugees have amassed, arriving from the border with Turkey. More than 1,720 migrants have landed there and on the four other Aegean islands over the past week, adding to the 38,000 already crammed into overstretched refugee centres.
Nakuru is the largest town in Kenya’s Great Rift Valley, located 170 kilometres northwest of the capital Nairobi.Tucked away on the outskirts of Nakuru, less than one kilometre from Lake Nakuru National Park, is the working space of SWAN-SUKEIA, a group of women who are part of the Lulu Works Trust.
An increasing number of Tunisian children and adolescents are taking their own lives. Suicides in the north African country tell a desperate story of the hardships Tunisian society is going through, whether financial, social, or psychological.
As governments worldwide shift to clean energy production in order to reduce emissions, ecological experts in Kenya are opposing the construction of a coal-burning electricity generation facility in the coastal region of Lamu County, which is a UNESCO World heritage site.
Liberia’s unprecedented shortage of petroleum products has resulted in long queues at petrol stations across the country. Some buyers have spent days taking turns to purchase the products in small quantities because of the high cost.
Following a decade of record-breaking temperatures worldwide, the global fight against climate change has taken on greater urgency. The UN Human Rights Council says severe weather is putting people with disabilities at greater risk. Correspondent Jason Strother traveled to Tacloban, the Philippine city destroyed by a super typhoon in 2013, and reports on how disabled residents have struggled in the wake of the disaster.
Legislative and municipal elections were held in Cameroon on Sunday 9 February. In some English-speaking communities, the elections were marked by a low turnout and sporadic gunshots.
In Cameroon, parliamentary and municipal elections take place on Sunday.
There are fears of violence in the country’s minority English-speaking regions, which have been rocked by a three-year crisis.
English-speaking separatists who have been fighting to create a new state called Ambazonia have vowed to disrupt the polls in the anglophone areas.
Since the crisis turned into an armed conflict, nearly a million people have been forced out of their homes and more than 3000 killed.
Local residents in the affected regions say their priority for now is their safety.
Correspondent Alphonse Tebeck sends this report from Bamenda
Human trafficking is a major problem facing many young Kenyans who are seeking employment abroad. The scourge has now taken a new twist as human traffickers target new-born babies in health facilities, just moments after their delivery.
As the power supply problem in Gaza has persisted for the past 14 years, some residents in the territory have organized their own personal initiatives to help sort out the problem.
Majd Almasharawi is one of those Gaza inhabitants.
Thanks to her social entrepreneurship, and a company called Sun Box, Majd has been able to install solar panels providing electricity for households and streets in the coastal territory.
The project is now three years old.
RFI correspondent Rami Almeghari has more
Every January for the past 27 years, Glasgow brims with Celtic music from Scotland, Ireland, but also traditional music from all the continents with Celtic Connections, one of the biggest music festivals in the UK.
Christian Hecq, one of President Macron's favourite actors, stars in a comic adaptation of 'The Fly', a famous science-fiction story where a scientist fuses with a fly during teleportation.