The Economists: Recent Episodes
ABC Radio
Economics is called the dismal science in part because it is about hard choices — situations where we can't have our cake and eat it too. Last year it seemed as if COVID wasn't one of them. Keeping the virus at bay gave Australia one of the world's lowest death tolls and one of its shortest recessions. The Delta variant changed that and made the "costs" of fighting the pandemic much harder to bear. The Economists discusses the "trade offs" of the pandemic and the road ahead.
Guests:
Stephen Duckett, Health and Aged Care Program Director, Grattan Institute
Peter Harris, Former Productivity Commission chair, former CEO, National COVID-19 Coordination Commission Advisory Board
Professor Richard Thaler has spent his career investigating how people really behave – how we save for retirement, what we choose to eat, how we use energy. Through understanding the many reasons for human misjudgement, such as being too optimistic, or facing too many choices, Richard Thaler's work has helped people make better decisions. The concept is known as "nudge" and nudge units are now commonplace in governments and businesses around the world to develop better policy.
Guest: Professor Richard Thaler, Professor of Behavioural Science and Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and co-author of "Nudge".
The underlying strength in the Australian economy has again beat many expectations; the nation's economy rose 0.7 per cent in the June quarter. However, the figures are like a look in the rear-view mirror and do not capture the full pain of the latest lockdowns. Is the latest economic news set to be as good as it gets?
Guests:
Josh Frydenberg, Federal Treasurer
Jo Masters, Chief Economist, EY Oceania
Huge amounts of information, known as administrative data, are being used by government and researchers to know what you need, even before you need it. How are linkages between data sets, and tracking types of people and businesses over time helping to improve decision making?
Guests:
Dr David Gruen, Australian Statistician, Head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics
Bob Breunig, Director, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Australian National University
A landmark report has urged the world's governments to come up with a better form of national accounting from GDP, to reflect the value and depletion of nature. Plus, an update on carbon markets and the emerging field of biodiversity offsets.
Guests:
Diane Coyle, Bennett Professor of Public Policy, University of Cambridge
Geoff Summerhayes, Senior Advisor, Pollination, former executive board member, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority
House prices in Australia are climbing at rates we’ve seldom seen. In all age groups, there is more renting and less home ownership than there used to be. Is housing supply part of the problem?
Guests:
Peter Tulip, Chief Economist, Centre for Independent Studies and former senior research manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia
Cameron Murray, Research Fellow, Henry Halloran Trust, University of Sydney
Rachel Ong ViforJ, Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellow, Professor at the School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin University
China has argued the tariffs on Australian goods such as wine and barley, are justified by Australia “dumping” products at low cost on the Chinese market and propping up the sectors with unfair subsidies – claims Australia denies. What’s behind the complaints and is there an exit strategy to restore trade?
Guests:
Dr Craig Emerson, economic consultant, former Minister for Trade
David Uren, Senior Fellow, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Australia's annual inflation rate has jumped to 3.8%, up from just 1.1%. Inflation is also rising in the United States – but is it really a worry? Plus, the Australian-led innovation to bring the Consumer Price Index into the 21st century.
Guests
Professor Kevin Fox, Director, Centre for Applied Economic Research, UNSW Business School
Nicki Hutley, economic consultant, advisor to Social Outcomes and Climate Council, former Senior Partner, Deloitte Access Economics
The closure of Australia’s border to immigration has provided a rare chance to assess in stark terms how important immigration is to Australia. So far, unemployment is at record lows and we’re spending money at home. While there may be short term benefits – what are the longer-term implications?
Guests:
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory, former chief economist of ANZ Bank and of Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Gabriela D'Souza, Senior Economist, Committee for Economic Development of Australia
Australia's unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 per cent, with almost 30,000 jobs created in June according to the official Bureau of Statistics data. The last time it was this low was a decade ago. Can Australia get even more people into work?
Guests:
Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson, Flinders University, former director of the National Institute of Labour Studies
Emeritus Professor Bill Mitchell, Chair in Economics, Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity, University of Newcastle
What is the Reserve Bank of Australia doing to taper its economic support as it becomes more confident about Australia’s recovery? Plus, fewer high school students, and fewer girls are choosing to study economics. A school is three times more likely to offer the subject if it is in a well-off area compared to a poorer area. What are the implications?
Guests:
Su-Ling Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist, RBC Capital Markets
Leith Thompson Second Master Economics, Sydney Grammar School
Over the next 40 years, Australia’s population is expected to age and become smaller than expected. What are the implications and is it really a problem?
Guests:
Professor John Piggott, Director, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), UNSW
Professor Miranda Stewart, tax specialist, University of Melbourne Law School
How do we measure the costs and benefits of lockdowns and how can we move forward to fully open the economy? Plus, the "statistical" value of a human life – how this measure underpins government decision making. The Economists are back on RN!
Guests:
Bob Gregory, Emeritus Professor, Australian National University and former board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia
Kip Viscusi, Professor of Law, Economics, and Management, Vanderbilt University, Nashville Tennessee
GDP figures say that Australia is heading towards recession for the first time in 29 years. Now what?
As 2020 brought bushfires, drought and floods, we were already in financial trouble.
But the measures taken to save lives in the face of COVID-19 have pushed the economy over the edge.
Nicki Hutley, partner at Deloitte Access Economics and Terry Rawnsley from SGS Economics and Planning, join us to pull apart the GDP 'sausage' and tell us what it all means.
If economics was made more relatable, it would be easier to understand.
Justin Wolfers says we should start by teaching it differently.
He says that although the guiding principles have largely remained, they need to be pulled apart and used in everyday decision-making to be useful.
And if you don't want to study at university, there are some great resources to guide you through say, a pandemic.
Justin Wolfers is a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
He co-authored (with Betsey Stevenson) Principles of Economics.
The hardships caused by the COVID-19 shutdown are not evenly distributed.
In the US, 40% of the workforce who earn just $40,000 a year, have lost their jobs.
Australians in a similar position will also face harsher conditions than higher earners.
But it goes beyond employment into poverty-specific issues like homelessness and neglect.
Stefanie Schurer explains why most of the suffering will land on the shoulders of children.
Professor Schurer is at Sydney University. She is chief investigator at the NHMRC of Research Excellence of both Child and Indigenous Youth Well-being.
Also
How does the Australian Bureau of Statistics gather data in the fast-moving times of the coronavirus?
David Gruen, lead statistician of the ABS and former chief economist to the prime minister, joins us.
The COVID-19-induced recession will be nothing like any recession, indeed depression, we have seen before.
The difference this time is that the government is not reacting to poor market performance. Rather, it has actively directed business across Australia to close its doors.
Bob Gregory is a former board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
He says that the economy will be 'grim for six to nine months' and after that, it is impossible to know.
Bob Gregory is Emeritus Professor at the Australian National University.
Also
Behavioural economist Bob Slonim explains why we need to think more creatively to inspire more downloads of the COVIDSafe app.
Former research director of the prime minister's BETA unit, Bob Slonim is now at Sydney University.
As the dust starts to settle on the Australian economy, what will work look like?
Many of us hope to still have jobs but wonder how they will change.
Jessica Mizrahii from Deloitte Access Economists assures us not to worry, that the future of work is still human.
But when we have money in our pockets again, how will we spend it?
Also
Ross Garnaut joins us.
Will we finally change our approach to transforming energy and mining?
Pandemics require individuals to contribute to the greater good.
Behavioural economist, Stephen Whyte says that it is possible to 'nudge' people towards actions that improve their lives.
Staying at home, social- distancing and downloading the COVIDSafe app are pro-social behaviours we can implement ourselves.
But how do we incentivise big companies to put the necessary resources into finding a vaccine?
Joshua Gans, author of Economics in the Age of COVID-19 explains.
Competition in the free market is best for everyone. Except when it's not.
In the time of COVID-19, it most definitely is not.
Rod Sims is chairman of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
He says that when we are fighting a pandemic-induced war, the economy is flipped on its head.
We must all work together to supply what people need, even if it involves co-operating with rival companies.
But once all parties have sat at the same table, how do we prevent collusion after the 'war' is over?
Young people are most at risk as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus.
Unlike the crises before it, the COVID-19 catastrophe is different.
The speed at which it erupted and the magnitude of its reach have shocked the world.
But Jeff Borland professor of Economics at the University of Melbourne, says that it is the asymmetry of its impact on certain groups, especially young people, that will cause the most problems.
LINKS
The next employment challenge from coronavirus: how to help the young, Jeff Borland, The Conversation, April 15, 2020
Which jobs are most at risk from the coronavirus shutdown?, Jeff Borland, The Conversation, March 26, 2020
The JobKeeper Program: A brief overview, Jeff Borland, Labour market snapshot #57, April 2020
Australia’s $130 billion JobKeeper payment: what the experts think, Steven Hamilton, Anthony Forsyth, David Peetz, The Conversation, March 30, 2020
COVID-19 and the Australian labour market: The immediate impact, Jeff Borland, Labour market snapshot #56, April 2020
Hard times for the young in Australia’s labour market, Jeff Borland, Labour Market Snapshot #55, March 2020
What we missed while we looked away – the growth of long‐term unemployment, Jeff Borland, The Conversation, July 8, 2019
All of Jeff Borland's Labour Market Snapshots
It's raining money. How much more should the government spend on cushioning the economy?
Stephanie Kelton is a professor at Stony Brook University, a senior economic advisor to Bernie Sanders and author of The Deficit Myth: Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy.
She says that yes indeed, the government does have the right to print money. It's just 'unfortunate that we have given it the name debt'
If it is the 'job' of the people during a pandemic to stay home, then it is the job of the government to step in and pay them.
Planning for the management of health during the coronavirus requires more than solely a death toll.
Measuring the costs of human suffering must also include mental illness, physical pain and a loss of quality of life that will follow this global crisis.
This is where numbers play a role.
Not to rate one life over another, but to limit the 'scarring effects' of this pandemic.
David Johnston, professor of health economics at Monash University.
Quentin Grafton, professor of economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
Pandemics are not new but the way the world has responded is unprecedented.
As country after country calls time-out on their daily lives, the global economy is in free-fall.
Carmen Reinhart says it's wartime and we need to be better soldiers.
Professor Gigi Foster agrees. We must aggressively quarantine and protect vulnerable people by day. Then go for a beer afterwards so the publican can pay his workers.
Harvard Professor Carmen Reinhart, co-author of This time it’s different: an account of eight centuries of financial folly
Small business is just one of the victims of COVID-19.
What if there is a way to hold off debt repayment until there is money in the bank to pay it?
Bruce Chapman, professor at the ANU College of Business and Economics, says we can learn a lot from the HECS loan system he helped to implement in the 1980s.
He believes that deferring loan repayments could be the key to economic recovery, especially for small business.
While the world responds to the health risks of COV19, no amount of hand sanitiser can protect the economy from what is ahead.
Will Scott Morrison's stimulus package save us from the downward spiral of our trading partners?
If you think the numbers that make up the GDP are slippery, you are right.
Terry Rawnsley wades through the jargon to help us understand what the Gross Domestic Product is and why those numbers matter.
Nicki Hutley interprets the financial growth results just handed down by Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
Coronavirus is scaring the economy. How can we plan for financial fallout if we don't know how bad it's going to be?
And although nobody wants to take responsibility for wage theft there are several persons of interest. It's time to name and shame.
How is Australia's historically robust economy slowing? What can be done to support the economy given global realities? And after a record three decades without a recession, can Australia make it to four?
What are some of the practical things the returned Morrison government could do to make Australia better?
Why is wage growth low and why is Australia's wage setting system so unusual? The Economists examine the wage and working policies of the major political parties.
What are the major political parties planning to do about the hot-button issues of climate change and energy?
Immigration is a major part of our economic success, but, fairly suddenly, it has become unpopular. Among the concerns are low wage growth, high house prices and overcrowded cities. Peter and Gigi search out what complaints are justified, what the parties are offering and what economics tells us about how many people we need.
Tax seems to be the go to topic for election campaigns, but why? Peter Martin and Gigi Foster find out why politicians get so much joy from arguing about tax.
Peter Martin and Gigi Foster return to The Economists to guide you through all things economic during the federal election campaign. This week - the economics of politics and policies.
Social conventions or expectations have economic consequences. Gigi Foster and Peter Martin discuss the hidden forces of norms.
Is the unavoidable need to measure leading us astray in our personal choices or in our economies?
Australia’s population is set to rapidly age. What are the implications and what will have to change?
How we value the future has economic implications - especially when it comes to caring for the future of the planet.
Social conventions or expectations have economic consequences. They can also cause people to make choices that seem contrary to their best individual interests. Gigi Foster and Peter Martin discuss the hidden forces of norms.
From cold hard cash, precious metals, shells or an IOU or Bitcoin - what is money? How is it made and trusted?
If healthcare for one person has positive 'spillovers' for everyone, why is government arguing the toss of how much we spend on Medicare?
If you are a cow, your milk is measured as part of the GDP. If you are a breastfeeding mother, yours is not.
If you think that hearts and flowers are the only currencies of love, you may have it all wrong.