At Any Rate: Recent Episodes
J.P. Morgan Global Research
Analysts from J.P. Morgan Global Research take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.
Meera Chandan, Greg Fuzesi, James Nelligan, Octavia Popescu and Patrick Locke discuss the FX implications of a wide range of topics - the upcoming German budget and NATO summit, FX take-aways from central bank meetings last week and the recent Treasury International Capital flows.
This podcast was recorded on 20 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5011155-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5008977-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Regime changes in oil-producing countries—whether through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts—can profoundly affect the country's oil policy, production, and global oil prices, both in the short and long term. Since 1979, there have been eight notable instances of regime change in medium-to-large scale oil-producing nations. While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity significantly influence the overall market impact, these events typically result in prices spiking by 76% from onset to peak and averaging a 30% increase, leaving lasting effects.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on June 20, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5009862-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 20 June 2025.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets. Breakevens in DM inflation markets have been modestly lower over the past month, as inflation has softened. Looking ahead to 2H25, we expect diverging trends between US and Euro area inflation, driving an outperformance in US inflation markets, particularly at the front end.
Speakers:
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rate Strategy
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on June 18, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan’s Jay Barry, Teresa Ho, Ipek Ozil, and Phoebe White discuss the outlook for the US rates market in the second half of 2025, discussing Treasury yields, swap spreads, TIPS, and the short-term fixed income markets.
Speakers
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on June 16, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5008078-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick discuss the outlook for currencies amid tariff and geopolitical tensions and ahead of a heavy calendar of central bank meetings.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5006008-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta broadly outline their thoughts on Euro area and UK rates markets over the second half of this year, touching on yields, curves, swap spreads and volatility.
This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5004085-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on June 13, 2025.
The surprise increase in US aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to a huge amount of uncertainty across the industry and dominated our conversations at the Harbor Aluminum Summit in Chicago last week. Most participants held a rather sideways outlook on aluminum prices with two-sided corporate flow expected to continue to keep prices in a range though, others were a bit more cautious on future demand over the balance of the year. More confounding is the reaction in US aluminum premiums. The US Midwest premium (MWP) is barely high enough to cover the boosted tariff alone and well below the 70 c/lb or higher needed to incentivize necessary imports as the market remains uncertain about whether a 50% tariff on aluminum will eventually be walked back or if key exemptions may come through. Eventually, this stasis will have to break (MWP higher) if nothing changes on the tariff front.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5003825-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Teresa Ho Gentile, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent developments in rates markets. They talk about the impact of eliminating IORB, Wells Fargo’s asset cap being lifted, and Michelle Bowman’s confirmation as the Fed Vice Chair of Supervision.
This podcast was recorded on June 10, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5004342-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5000235-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
De-dollarization has increasingly become a substantive topic of discussion among corporate clients and market participants more broadly. We discuss de-dollarization related to changes in the structural demand for the dollar and its use as a reserve currency. This encompasses areas that relate to the longer-term use of the dollar, such as transactional dominance in FX volumes or commodities trade, denomination of liabilities or share in central bank FX reserves. J.P. Morgan clients can access the report "De-dollarization: Fact and fable" in the new Macro Corporate Spotlight series at jpmorganmarkets.com.
Speakers
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Meera Chandan - Co-Head of FX Strategy
Saad Siddiqui - Head of EM Rates and FX Strategy
Jay Barry - Head of Global Rates Research
Greg Shearer - Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5000511-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode we will globetrot around key production regions, discussing the risks and outlook across agri market.
Speaker:
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5001278-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week, our Global FX and EM FX Strategists discuss the strategic dollar view given recent US data, impacts on EUR from the ECB and read-throughs from the US Treasury’s currency manipulator report, as well as the second-half 2025 outlook for EM FX.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Head of EM Rates and FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on June 6, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5001181-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4996209-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden, Saad Siddiqui, Nora Szentivanyi and Ben Ramsey discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets in 2H25.
This podcast was recorded on 06 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4996209-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast, Francis Diamond, Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss a range of different European rate market topics covering the recent ECB meeting, thoughts around cross-currency basis and an update on €-SSA markets.
This podcast was recorded on 06 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5002257-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4999113-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4999331-0.pdf
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Featured in this podcast are Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita, Takafumi Yamawaki, and Tim West. JPMorgan’s Japan macro team discusses the causes of and potential remedies for the ongoing sell-off in long-end JGBs.
This podcast was recorded on Jun 5, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Global oil inventories are visibly increasing, yet prices have remained surprisingly stable, with market opinion divided on whether current oil prices are too low or too high. We anticipate prices to stay within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end. The global oil surplus has widened to 2.2 mbd, likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance. Yet, despite supply pressures, three strong market forces are providing a firm floor in the $55-60 Brent ($50-55 WTI) range. Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity. The US administration may begin repurchasing oil for the SPR as early as August. Meanwhile, US shale wellhead breakeven prices, assuming zero return, are estimated at around $47 WTI.
Speaker
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4977650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the latest CIT ruling on tariffs, expectations for the upcoming payrolls report and the recent fiscal-driven rates moves with implications for the broad dollar and FX markets.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4994884-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on Euro area rate markets ahead of the June ECB meeting and also discuss thoughts on the long end of EUR and GBP curves.
Speakers:
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4998044-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
JPM Strategists Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss rising term premium across DM government bond markets, the passage of the House tax bill, rising tariff risks, and what this means for rates and FX markets.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on May 23, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989466-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991726-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989711-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989990-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4979940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Frida Infante discuss recent developments in Scandinavian interest rate markets and important drivers looking ahead.
Speakers
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
Frida Infante, Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991719-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy
Ipek Ozil and Teresa Ho discuss the potential SLR reform, its implementation timeline, and its potential impact on the rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on 21 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4987601-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of US and Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Jun25/Sep25 bond futures rollover.
This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971531-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4984252-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week, Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan discuss the FX implications across tariff de-escalation, US fiscal developments, data surprises and central bank meeting risk.
Speakers:
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4983958-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A better-than-expected US-China trade reprieve and reduced recession probabilities has diminished the downside tail risks to both base metals demand and prices. While prices could continue to run higher in the near-term amid a further extension of Chinese demand front-loading following the 90-day tariff reprieve, we are cautious of the longevity of this extension and still think a more bearish reckoning is likely in 2H25 as all the pull-forward in demand eventually drives a rather significant hangover.
Speaker
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4982649-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4985028-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
What are the near-term macro implications for China from the temporary tariff roll-back in Geneva? Can the truce become permanent? What are the spillover effects to the rest of the region? Are the Japan and Korea trade deals imminent? Are currency accords part of these deals? Will the BoJ continue normalizing sooner than October? Sajjid Chinoy, Haibin Zhu, Ayako Fujita and Seokgil Park discuss these questions and more.
This podcast was recorded on May 14, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4978369-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4982620-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4966658-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
US Rates strategists Phoebe White, Teresa Ho, and Ipek Ozil discuss their takeaways from this week's Fed meeting and tariff announcements. With a deterioration in labor market data still likely to drive Fed easing later this year, Treasury yields are expected to fall over coming months. Meanwhile, funding markets remain healthy, and stability has returned to swap spreads.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
Teresa Ho Gentile, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981555-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980064-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4976471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980549-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Octavia Popescu discuss how the USD/Asia view is evolving after record volatility, as well as recent central bank meetings and the US-UK trade deal with the read-through to FX.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4979940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss a variety of topics covering thoughts around the impact of de-dollarisation on Euro govie and swap markets, the May BoE meeting and UK rates as well as the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings this week.
Speakers
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 09 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981304-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980024-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980028-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Over the past five decades, foreign investors have been steadily accumulating US financial assets, which have reached nearly $57trn as of the end of 2024. Yet, there are signs that sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers appear to be rethinking the risk-reward parameters of holding US assets. Gold could further benefit from this shift. Given its limited supply growth, even relatively small reallocations into the metal can significantly impact prices. A potential shift of just 0.5% of foreign US assets to gold could yield 18% annual returns, taking gold prices toward $6,000 by early 2029. While hypothetical, this scenario illustrates why we remain structurally bullish gold and think prices have further to run.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971492-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam, Jemmy and Mixo discuss the outlook for Taiwanese and Asian equities more broadly in the wake of historic TWD FX appreciation
This podcast was recorded on May 8, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975042-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4974799-0andhttps://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975936-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss latest developments in the Treasury and FX markets in the context of this week's employment data, trade negotiations, and Treasury's May refunding announcement.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on May 2, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4972435-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4973610-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this week’s At Any Rate podcast, our Global FX team addresses the large move in USD/TWD late in the week alongside implications for USD/CNY, Asia FX and global FX more broadly. We also recap recent FX-relevant macro data and central bank decisions, and look ahead to how FX might respond around central bank meetings next week.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
The oil market seems to be pre-positioning to benefit from the tailwinds of tariff de-escalation, along with shifts towards deregulation and tax cuts. But while the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put' does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation. On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on US imports. On the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to face challenges due to the growth in non-OPEC supply and capacity expansion among some alliance members, especially as a significant portion of the capital expenditure for these expansions is being funded by major international oil companies. Given the diminishing price reaction to a 1 mbd supply cut—from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025—and our outlook for $60 oil in 2026, increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy for an oil-producing country.
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966066-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 01 May 2025.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Sajjid Chinoy, Rajiv Batra and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro, equity and fixed income markets in the wake of the IMF / WB meetings in Washington DC last week
This podcast was recorded on Apr 28, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
During this episode, Tracey shares her takeaways from the recently held Geneva Sugar conference and provides an update on the cocoa market after the relative strength in recent grinding data.
Speakers:
Tracey Allen, Head of Ags Research
This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
After hitting our out-of-consensus upside EUR/USD targets of 1.14-1.16, we now set our sights at 1.20 and discuss the underlying rationale. We also discuss the outlook for the broader euro bloc as well as the main take-aways for FX from our suite of systematic models.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966930-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4957718-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Heightened trade policy uncertainty and an apparent shift in OPEC’s reaction function prompt a reassessment of our outlook and price projections. Having reached our year-end price forecasts eight months early, we lower our 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 ($62 WTI), down from $73/bbl. Additionally, we adjust our 2026 targets to $58 ($54 WTI), a slight decrease from the previous $61. The price floor is now much lower. Unlike the Biden administration, which limited downside risk by guiding the refill of the US SPR when WTI prices fell below $70, the Trump administration is actively pursuing lower oil prices, with intervention unlikely unless price drops to $50. US shale producers will bear the brunt of these developments, with our projections indicating a cut of 115 rigs starting in July, leading to a contraction in US crude and condensate production in 2026. Consequently, reduced shale activity will weaken US associated natural gas supply, providing support to Henry Hub natural gas prices. While OPEC+ is poised to gain market share in 2025, stabilizing the market at $60 Brent in 2026 would require the alliance not only to reverse current production increases, but to implement further cuts.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 17, April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4953411-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Changing dynamics of natural gas power generation demand are at play for summer 2025, while stronger production response is likely delayed to 2026. We expect up to 1.1 Bcf/day of gas-to-coal switching in summer 2025, however we flag risks of higher prices subject to weather risks and renewable availability. In 2026, we expect increase in production to alleviate such risks and push prices lower. Lastly, we address what the recession risks may mean for the US natural gas market.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Otar Dgebuadze, Vice President, Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 11, April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4936692-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Our Global FX Strategists debrief a volatile week for currency markets - including key takeaways on the policy front and what challenges still lie ahead from a global macro perspective. They also discuss the the details of the recent USD sell-off, as well as expectations for USD/CNH going forward.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4954262-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US Rates strategists Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, Phoebe White, and Ipek Ozil discuss the historic volatility observed in US rates markets over the past week and its drivers. Treasury market liquidity deteriorated, and swap spreads narrowed sharply, but the cash/futures basis and repo rates were relatively stable.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 10 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4955364-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In the debut Asia edition of the ‘At Any Rate’ podcast, Sajjid Chinoy and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro and markets in the wake of US reciprocal tariffs.
Key topics discussed:
- How global economic views are evolving post-Liberation Day; channels of transmission to Asian growth and growth forecast changes
- Asian policymakers’ responses; policy tools deployment across different countries
- Rates and bonds investing
- Asian FX - how the dollar behavior is shaping FX views; primary risk factors to watch out for
This podcast was recorded on Apr 10, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4951821-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4944945-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950529-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4952039-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950917-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
During this commodities edition, Tracey discusses the implications of Liberation Day tariffs for agri markets and the outlook ahead.
Speaker:
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 4, April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949701-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this week’s At Any Rate Podcasts, our strategists Meera Chandan, Saad Siddiqui and Patrick Locke discuss the outlooks for the broad dollar, G10 FX and EM FX following major tariff announcements and subsequent stress in risk markets.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949817-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their the reaction of European rates markets to the tariff announcement this week.
This podcast was recorded on 04 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949749-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946392-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy
Ipek Ozil,Senior Derivative Strategist
This podcast was recorded on March 31, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4942082-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies in the wake of the auto-sector tariffs and ahead of the big April 2nd tariff announcement by the US administration.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Freezing of Russian foreign assets has triggered a structural change in the demand for gold, and the shift in US foreign policy from Pax Americana to Pax Trumpiana has accelerated and broadened gold ownership. Traditionally, with large above-ground stocks of gold acting as a pool of supply, gold prices have been largely determined by the relative strength of demand. However, to meet this increased demand, a structural response, which so far has been constrained, from the supply side is necessary. After the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, gold took 38 years to surpass $1,000 in March 2008. It reached $2,000 in August 2020, doubling in 12 years. The pace accelerated, breaking $3,000 on March 14, 2025, in just under five years. With each $1,000 phase taking two-thirds less time, could $4,000 be next?
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4924668-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets, focusing on Euro rates markets into the 2 April tariff announcement, thoughts on SSAs and issuance, Scandi rates following recent CB meetings and UK rates in light of this week’s Spring Statement.
This podcast was recorded on March 28, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4942101-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946392-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2025.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden, Virginia Martin Heriz, Lydia Harvey and Alisa Meyers discuss the latest annual report on the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4926303-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets. The past few weeks have seen divergent performances in DM inflation breakevens with HICP swaps across the curve rising following the German fiscal announcement whilst other DM breakevens fell. Outside the HICP space, front-end breakevens appear cheap on a valuation basis.
Speakers
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rate Strategy
Phoebe White, Head of Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4922930-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook in the lead up to the pivotal April 2nd tariff announcement.
This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4939751-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937641-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Oil prices have been trading below their fair value since last September, a trend we attribute to the actions of Oil Vigilantes—a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will step in to stabilize the market and bolster prices. Yet, despite Brent prices trading near their lowest levels since December 2021, the OPEC alliance has chosen to proceed with its plan to gradually increase production starting in April. For the alliance to alter its course, significant market imbalances, such as a sudden drop in demand or a substantial increase in supply leading to swelling inventories, would likely be necessary. So far, none of these conditions have materialized—the downgrades in US GDP have been nearly offset by growth upgrades in Europe and China, keeping our demand projections steady. While OECD inventories are 4% above their 2000-2015 levels, they remain 3% below their five-year averages.
This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937529-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets.
Speakers
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Interest Rate Derivative Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Interest Rate Derivative Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4930738-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this week’s At Any Rate Podcast, FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan take stock of the bearish-USD view, look at new ways of framing the USD response to tariffs, discuss how European FX is responding to recent geopolitical and fiscal news, and finally preview upcoming central bank meetings next week.
Speakers
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4934024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets given the seismic shift in German fiscal policy and the repricing in European rates markets against a backdrop of ongoing tariff uncertainty.
Speakers
Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4935267-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Steps continue to be taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year, an outcome that J.P. Morgan Commodities Research has assumed will occur in 2025. Among all commodities under our coverage, natural gas is expected to be impacted the most. As ceasefire negotiations progress, we now incorporate a 15 Bcm/year return of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, starting from 2H25. Consequently, we have lowered our price forecast for 2H25, reducing it from 46 EUR/MWh to 40 EUR/MWh. Additionally, our 2026 price forecast has been revised down from 31 EUR/MWh to 25.5 EUR/MWh, with an average price projection for the second half of 2026 approaching 20 EUR/MWh.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892286-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4931834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We discuss implications of the regime-shift in German fiscal policy, moderating US exceptionalism and tariffs on FX markets.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925154-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra provide an update in the equity financing markets and discuss how that is driving growth in the ABCP market.
Speakers
Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 7, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4902017-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4926314-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
After attending IE Week in London last week, we concluded that the majority of investors likely held long positions in oil and that the pain trade would be to the downside. Since then, Brent oil prices have plunged 6.5%, reaching their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday, while WTI have fallen nearly 6% over the same period, hitting its lowest point since May 2023. Brent is currently trading about $7 below its fair value, with short-term technical indicators in oversold territory. The market sees a drop in Iranian supply as the only bullish catalyst for prices, an event we do not anticipate, however further depreciation in the US dollar could stabilize and potentially boost oil prices. To recap our view, we expect the price of Brent oil to average $73 this year—largely unchanged from our 2024 Outlook published in November 2023—exiting the year at $64, before slipping to a $61 average in 2026.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925607-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the recent US moderation and upcoming tariff announcements, with implications for US rates and the dollar.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4922731-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920384-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speaker:
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Limited copper supply growth and resilient global demand sets up a tighter forecasted refined copper market in 2H25 and 2026 and keeps us medium-term bullish on prices. While current slack in China and the potential for greater tariff headline volatility over the next month risks a near-term pullback in copper, we ultimately believe global demand will begin to stress copper balances later this year. Moreover, likely excess inventory builds in the US in the coming months ahead of a tariff on copper sets up the potential to leave the rest of the world shorter of copper than expected, driving more significant tightening to copper balances in China and Asia into the summer, setting the stage for our forecasted bullish push higher over 2H25 towards $10,400/mt.
This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4909053-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets following broad-based breakeven narrowing over the past month. Despite upside surprises in January CPI reports, front-end breakevens have underperformed while the forward inflation curve has steepened across US, Euro area, and UK markets.
Speakers:
Phoebe White Head of US Inflation Strategy
Francis Diamond Head of European Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss the drivers of Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Mar25/Jun25 Eurex bond futures rollover
This podcast was recorded on 25 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915436-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A fixed income cross-asset review as structural shifts gain critical mass.
Speakers:
Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy | Moderator
Gisela Brant, LatAm Local Markets Strategy
Gorka Lalaguna, EM Sovereign Credit Strategy
Alejandra Andrade, LatAm Corporate Credit Strategy
This was recorded on February 24, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4891328-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan and Greg Fuzesi discuss the outcome of the German elections, implications for a fiscal response and take-aways for currency markets.
This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4918826-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4913224-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915483-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on the Treasury and TIPS market in the context of the January FOMC meeting minutes, debt management strategy commentary from Treasury Secretary Bessent, ongoing tariff headlines and rising survey-based inflation expectations.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on February 21, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915577-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4916770-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4916846-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4917624-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Junya Tanase, and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook amid cross-currents of wavering tariff risk premium in the USD, European peace optimism and sharp moves in the JPY.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915483-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The original JCPOA agreement is set to expire on October 18, 2025, raising the question of whether it makes sense to restore the JCPOA as it was envisioned in 2015 or to draft a new nuclear agreement, with both the US and Iran signaling willingness to negotiate. Economic transformation in the Gulf requires stability and GCC countries have engaged with Iran, reducing support for aggressive US policies. Rebounding US inflation may also influence policy priorities. We forecast Iranian crude production to remain flat at 3.1 mbd in 2025, unchanged from 2024 levels.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906782-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Ravi Balakrishnan, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc and Aditya Chordia discuss frequently asked client questions on increasing spending needs for defence and Ukraine reconstruction, European policy response options, various funding options on table, and the impact on sovereign issuance and markets.
This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4915753-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Natasha Kaneva, Meera Chandan and Anezka Christovova discuss the potential of recent developments on commodities and FX markets.
This podcast was recorded on 14 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4909040-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906783-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4904380-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4893759-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 13 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the upcoming UST futures roll dynamics.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 12 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4907777-0 GPS LINK for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss US payrolls and FX/ rates implications.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4901629-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4905400-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
After the start of the week was dominated by headlines regarding US import tariffs to be imposed on China, Mexico, and Canada, the Trump Administration has seemingly moved on, turning its focus on policies pertaining to Iran and bringing the Russia/Ukraine war to an end. For the global gas market, a negotiated end to the Russia/Ukraine war has the potential for an increase in Russian pipeline gas to Europe. Timing and magnitude of those flows matter and would change the current supportive price regime for the TTF natural gas market, potentially narrowing the arb between global gas and US natural gas prices in the intermediate term even sooner. We will discuss how an increase of Russian pipeline flows to Europe could impact the global natural gas markets.
Speaker:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4904380-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4896008-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We discuss the outlook for US equity exceptionalism, it’s read-through for the dollar and the upcoming February 1st tariff announcements.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Prabhav Bhadani, Equity Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on Jan 31, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4898169-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4897023-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4896096-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
President Trump wants lower energy prices and higher oil and gas production and exports—objectives that seem irreconcilable, given the relatively high cost of producing oil from US shale formations. We estimate that US energy companies need WTI crude prices of $55/bbl and natural gas at $3.50/MMBtu for drilling to be profitable, with $75 and $3.75 required to significantly increase drilling. However, reducing royalties and taxes, easing methane regulations, and streamlining federal drilling permits could lower breakeven costs by $10/bbl for oil and $0.60/MMBtu for gas. On a production-weighted average basis, this would reduce the breakeven point for US oil production from $55 to $45. Ultimately, the impact of these lower costs on US oil production depends on the decisions of the 275 independent companies in the upstream shale sector.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895361-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4898059-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy, and Michael Hanson, senior US economist, discuss their latest thoughts on US trade policy and Fed independence, following what has been a busy first week for the new administration, and what to expect from next week’s FOMC meeting. Yield curves are likely to flatten in the near term, supported by a narrowing in longer-run breakevens.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
Michael Hanson, Senior Economist
This podcast was recorded on January 24, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US trade/ tariffs will be a multi-quarter theme and support for USD. Our bias remains long USD given its growth and yield advantage, but the trading approach needs to be more tactical. A (short) window has opened up for carry/ high beta recovery. Carry still favours the dollar but several high beta have started to screen more attractive. Funders, particularly CHF, will be vulnerable if DM yields stay elevated. DM central banks next week but most ex-Fed not meaningful for FX.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Since the start of the year, Brent oil has been trading $4-7 above fair value, reflecting risks of reduced Russian and Iranian oil exports. Some risk premium is justified given the substantial figures involved: nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions. Russia has previously defied expectations of supply disruptions, and it is reasonable to assume that its export flows will remain resilient. However, application of sanctions on Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate. The current $4 premium for potential disruption in Iranian oil flows might be overestimated. The market anticipates up to 1.3 mbd drop in Iranian oil exports, but this week’s replacement of Iran hawk with Iran dove as Pentagon’s next policy chief for the Middle East could signal a shift in the policy.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885062-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the main drivers European cross currency basis and their latest thoughts on the cross currency basis market.
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4889166-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892489-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The weather forecasts for early 2025 in both the US and Europe have turned colder, leading to increased natural gas demand and stress on projected end of season storage levels. While current conditions suggest a bullish outlook, we caution that there is still plenty of winter and time left in the year, creating significant uncertainty regarding price formation over the balance of 2025 in both markets.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4888451-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4884963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya , Junya Tanase, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook heading into the US Presidential inauguration next week.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on January 17, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4887086-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party
Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro research at J.P. Morgan, discusses the outlook for government bond issuance in 2025 with strategists Jay Barry and Aditya Chordia. The team discusses how ongoing central bank QT amplifies issuance trends, and wide budget deficits suggest term premium should remain elevated in the US and UK, while these trends should be less impactful for Euro-area and Japanese yields.
Speakers:
Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4887257-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week our Global FX Strategists discuss how much upside the dollar still has given US exceptionalism and tariff risks. They also touch on implications from the UK’s fiscal outlook for GBP, as well as the read-through from political developments in Canada to CAD.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4881532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the surprisingly benign year-end for the repo marketsand what that might mean for the timing of QT’s end.
Speakers:
Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy
PJ Vohra, U.S. Short-Term Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on January 10, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879319-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Between December 23 and January 8, oil prices rose over 6%, with Brent hitting $77/bbl and WTI nearly $75/bbl, a three-month high. The gap between realized and forecasted prices, which widened to nearly $10 last year, has now closed, aligning Brent with our $75 fair value for January. This price action is likely driven by concerns over supply disruptions from tightening sanctions, low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in the US and Europe, improved sentiment on China’s stimulus, cleaner positioning, and CTA short-covering flows. We expect prices to remain stable for most of the year, dipping below $70 in the final quarter, averaging $73 for the year.
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879370-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets given the increase in yields seen since the start of this year.
This podcast was recorded on 08 January 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at:
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4880271-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879160-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879138-0.pdf
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Having marketed our 2025/2026 Oil Outlook over the last couple weeks, we address the feedback and questions we received from our clients. To recap, Brent crude oil is on track to average $80 per barrel in 2024, which is $3 below our projections from last June. We expect the price to decline to $73 in 2025, remaining largely consistent with our 2024 Outlook published last November, before slipping to $61 in 2026. Surprisingly, our demand outlook did not face significant pushback; however, there was considerable disagreement regarding our supply forecasts, especially concerning production levels in Brazil and the US. Additionally, our perspectives on Iran positioned us as outliers compared to the broader market consensus. Notably, there were no strong opinions expressed regarding the outlook for 2026.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on December 20, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4869906-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya and Octavia Popescu discuss the outlook for currencies following a busy week of central bank meetings.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 20 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4870676-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan’s Francis Diamond and Jay Barry discuss the varied outcomes of this week’s BoE and Fed meetings, and their implications for DM rates markets over the near term.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Francis Diamond, Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 20 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4872382-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4871565-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4870758-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 19 December 2024.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Daniel Lamy, Head of European Credit Strategy Research and Nelson Jantzen, High-yield bonds and leveraged loans analyst to unpack the latest developments and 2025 outlook for credit market.
Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research
Daniel Lamy, Head of European Credit Strategy Research
Nelson Jantzen, High-Yield Bonds and Leveraged Loans Analyst
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2024
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4844761-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The Global FX Strategy team discuss this week’s key events and market moves, while looking ahead to next week’s economic calendar.
Speakers:
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 13 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4865721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The BCOM Index is projected to deliver a flat return in 2024 and is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, as declines in energy are offset by further price increases in metals and agriculture. Food and energy components have accounted for 35% of the decline in the headline U.S. CPI print this year, and commodities are anticipated to continue supporting disinflationary trends in 2025. We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold for the third consecutive year and anticipate stronger gains in silver and platinum. Industrial metals have moved to the second position among our most preferred sectors, and we hold a positive view on agricultural commodities relative to the forward curves. We remain neutral on U.S. natural gas, while our perspective on oil has shifted from neutral to outright bearish.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4853405-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The Global FX Strategy team discusses FX implications from upcoming DM central bank decisions, including the ECB, SNB, BoC & RBA. They also parse the USD response to this week’s Nov US payrolls report.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 06 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4851138-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan’s US Rates strategy team discusses their high-level themes from their recently published 2025 US Fixed Income Markets Outlook.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Rates Derivatives Strategy
Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 4 December, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849383-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and Octavia Popescu discuss the outlook for the Scandinavian economies, rates, and FX over 2025.
This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4855621-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Not for the faint hearted.
Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy
Juan Duran-Vara, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845566-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan economists and strategists discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets in 2025, focusing also on the various channels in which the new US administration can impact EM economies and fixed income markets.
Speakers
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Jahangir Aziz - Head of Emerging Market Economics Research
Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist
The Global FX strategy team provides a round-up of the year-ahead outlook.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ben Jarman, Global FX Strategy
Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy
Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4851138-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the outlook for European rates markets over 2025.
This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849003-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
President-elect Trump will return to the White House in January with a commitment to rapidly defeat inflation by lowering energy prices. Trump’s energy agenda presents downside risks to oil prices from deregulation and increased US production, while also posing upside risks by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues. But with US oil supply growth moderating and GCC countries unlikely to offset lost exports, any policies that might raise oil prices will likely defer to Trump’s key objective of maintaining low energy prices. Weak oil supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring down oil prices. Our view on 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we look for a large 1.3 mbd surplus and an average Brent of $73, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64. In 2026, another year of large surpluses will drive Brent prices below $60 by year-end, with an average Brent forecast of $61 and WTI at $57.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 22, November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840755-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Last month our team published “EM as an Asset Class Evolves and Diversifies,” an update of the EM as an Asset Class series that J.P. Morgan research has been producing over the past two decades. In the report we take a longer-term look at how the outlook for EM has shifted as the asset class has evolved. Within the report you can find our “EM Sovereign Credit Markets” section, which we review in this webinar. In short: sovereign debt levels have risen but without the wave of defaults that were feared after the pandemic, and credit ratings have now stabilized. In our section we analyze the cyclicality of EM sovereign credit spreads versus the more idiosyncratic nature of sovereign defaults; highlight the evolution of the EM sovereign debt architecture; update our analysis of external financing trends and debt dynamics; and we look into ownership of the asset class.
Speakers:
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Research
Nishant Poojary, Emerging Markets Strategy
Gorka Lalaguna, Emerging Markets Strategy
Fariha Ahmmed, Emerging Markets Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 19, November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4824425-0for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US Rates Strategist Phoebe White discusses her takeaways from the October CPI report, as well as the path ahead for US rates and inflation markets. October CPI showed broad-based strength, outside of some idiosyncratic weakness in core goods prices, and points to some stickiness in core services inflation, even before considering upside risks stemming from policy uncertainty. With Treasury valuations cheap and the Fed maintaining an easing bias, there is likely limited room for yields to rise further. TIPS breakevens are likely to outperform their historical beta to nominal yields in a rally.
Speaker:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Since late-October, a price premium has been building in the TTF natural gas market, particularly summer 2025. Starting the winter season with lower storage in the ground relative to last year, the European natural gas market has had to contend with a colder than normal November, a huge amount of uncertainty regarding whether Russian gas will flow through Ukraine in 2025, and slower than anticipated commencement timelines for new North American LNG export projects. We will discuss whether this risk premium is justified and how we see risks to the current price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2025-26.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 15, November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4842530-0for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
FX markets are finally behaving as expected post-US elections. Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the path ahead and outline why the FX moves are not yet done.
This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4846770-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840487-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Description: Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.
This podcast was recorded on November 12, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The Trump Presidency and the widely expected Red Sweep amplifies USD exceptionalism on multiple channels......President Trump’s proclamation for the US thus applies to the dollar as well. Indeed, no other currency has what the dollar has: superior growth and equities, higher yield, defensive characteristics. We discuss outlook for the dollar post US elections and discuss the various DM central banks meetings over the past week.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840351-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on European rate markets following a busy week of events with the US election, Riksbank, Norges Bank and BoE meetings and the collapse of the German coalition government.
Speakers:
Francis Diamond, Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy
Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 8 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4836095-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The initial post-election sell-off in gold ran counter to both our and consensus expectations. We think it’s much more about near-term position squaring than a break in our thesis that a Republican sweep of government will likely continue to fuel further upside for gold in 2025 as the debasement trade rumbles on. Base metals prices have swung dramatically following the election. While there will likely eventually be a good risk/reward set up to add length in base metals again in the coming quarters we don’t think we are there yet and are more cautious on base metals prices over the coming weeks. Following the Trump election victory, Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research, outlines our outlook for metals from here.
Speaker:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 8, November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4838877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class after the US elections.
This podcast was recorded on 08 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only.
Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Our Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke, Ladislav Jankovic and James Nelligan take a final look at the tactical setup for FX heading into next week’s election, including potential targets across election outcomes for key dollar pairs. They also evaluate what’s priced into spot and options markets. Our strategists conclude with implications for GBP following this week’s highly-anticipated budget announcement.
Speakers:
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832528-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We cut through the noise to explore the policies that will be prioritized by any new administration, regardless of the election outcome, and asses their implications for commodities markets. The top priority for both administrations is to ensure the security of supply in energy and minerals and to lower energy prices to curb inflation. Debasement trades are likely to perform well under any administration, though could get further supercharged under a Republican sweep. Gold stands out as the commodity of choice for hedging the US elections.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 1, November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832733-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Afonso Borges recap Treasury’s November refunding announcement and the expectations for issuance over the medium term.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4832276-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4820649-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss how EM asset markets are looking ahead of the US election and takeaways from the recent Washington conferences.
This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the impact of the upcoming election on Rates markets, as well as Fed’s balance sheet policy and monetary policy expectations.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818573-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4823172-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast, we discuss our recently launched default outlook for 2025. Our 2025 EM Corporate HY default forecast is 2.7%. If achieved, it will be another below average default year, extending the improvement trend from 7-14% default rates between 2021-2023. Such default rates would also be modestly below DM credit. Regionally, we expect 3.0% for Asia, 3.4% for Latin America, 2.8% for EM Europe, and 0.5% for Middle East & Africa. In this discussion, we cover the drivers of our sanguine expectations, differentiation by region and segment, as well as risks to our base case expectations.
Speakers
Yang-Myung Hong, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy
Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 25 Oct 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A lot of ink has been spilled on the impact of US elections on the euro. But a less discussed question is what the Euro area response to mitigate any such trade conflict will be. Greg Fuzesi and Meera Chandan discuss the economic, policy and FX impact, if tariff risks are realized.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4826699-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The BCOM Precious Metals Index has continued its year-to-date rally in October, gaining nearly 4% so far this month despite higher US yields and a stronger US dollar. The continued outperformance in gold and silver comes as markets price in greater odds of a Trump presidency and possible Republican sweep, fueling precious metals length as a hedge against the potential for amplified US fiscal concerns, inflationary concerns and geopolitical/trade tensions. In this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals research, discusses the key takeaways from the 2024 LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference and shares an update on the precious markets as we approach the upcoming US election.
Speaker:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 25, Oct. 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4819507-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.
Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research
Eric Beinstein, Head of US High Grade Credit Research
This podcast was recorded on 22 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4811273-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the Fed’s new tool, Reserve Demand Elasticity, and its use of the fed funds rate and aggregate reserves to measure in real-time the ampleness of reserves in the banking system. They also discuss some interesting findings from MMFs’ September holdings.
Speakers:
Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
During this Commodities edition of the At Any Rate Podcast, Tracey Allen, head of agricultural research will discuss takeaways from London Sugar Week and share an update on the state of agri markets and risks to watch out for following World Food Day on 16 October.
Speaker:
Tracey Allen, Head of Global Agricultural Research
This podcast was recorded on 18, October, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4818658-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810174-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We run through takeaways from the week thinking about the ECB, UK data, Asia FX and Antipodean FX, as well as dollar outperformance.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 18 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4821551-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting, funding dynamics and swap spreads as the UK budget at the end of this month.
This podcast was recorded on 14 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817582-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US Rates Strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss their takeaways from the September CPI report, the recent volatility in rates and inflation markets, and thoughts on Fed balance sheet policy following the most recent FOMC meeting minutes. With Treasury valuations somewhat cheap and positioning now short, we think yields have limited further room to rise. Inflation breakeven should also find stability though risks remain two-sided at these levels.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Phoebe White ,Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on October 11, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report athttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4815265-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We run through the expected impact on FX from different US election outcome scenarios and we provide an overview of relevant FX hedges.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ladislav Jankovic, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4812241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
It took an escalation in Iran-Israel tensions and the optimism generated by the Chinese government’s stimulus efforts to lift oil out of its three-month downward trajectory. Nevertheless, sustaining bullish price momentum in oil has proven to be a high maintenance task: without additional catalysts, the ‘war’ and ‘stimulus’ premiums have been prone to fading. While possible, Israel is likely to avoid Iranian oil infrastructure. Conversely, the rising expectations for RMB 2 trn fiscal stimulus are likely to be met.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 11, October, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4814501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy discuss how this week’s labor markets data shift the debate over Fed policy, and how greater policy uncertainty has implications for the rates, curve and vol. They also discuss recent developments in funding markets and the implications for Quantitative Tightening
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy
Srini Ramaswamy ,Co-Head, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809111-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4810186-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4807300-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party
Oil prices have been moving higher as the market anticipates Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strike earlier this week. Since last October, we have recommended selling geopolitical premium in oil, this time, however, it feels different. We assume that attacking Iran’s energy facilities would not be Israel’s preferred course of action, but rather a secondary or even tertiary response to Iran’s possible escalation. We also assign a low probability to the scenario where Iran targets energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries. Still, unlike October 2023 and April 2024, the current situation suggests that, given the low level of oil inventories, the odds favor a sustained geopolitical premium in crude price until the conflict is resolved.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The valley of the dollar smile proved to be treacherous after all, with payrolls and other strong US data catapulting us back into US exceptionalism. Our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for currency markets following the strong jobs data, including impacts on the broad dollar and funding currencies as well as recent developments in European FX.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4809182-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the evolving macro backdrop and how geopolitical events can impact EM assets.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 2 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Is China’s policy blitz a game-changer for commodities and FX? We discuss the read-through. Maintain bearish oil and bullish copper forecasts. On paper, this should be the valley of the dollar smile but upcoming US election makes this an uncomfortable proposition. SNB didn’t push back on CHF strength, which is a green light for more appreciation.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Tracey Allen, Global Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Global Commodities Research
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803864-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4804070-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the impressive growth of MMF AUMs this year and why the easing cycle is not going to immediately lead to outflows. They also discuss MMF portfolio positioning and MMF reform.
Speakers:
Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799375-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803107-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Our Global FX Strategists James Nelligan, Patrick Locke & Junya Tanase unpack the FX implications from a loaded week that featured the Fed and BoJ, and discuss implications for low-yielding currencies against more cyclical FX going forward.
This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4798218-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Following a 50bp interest rate cut by the Fed this week gold has risen to another new all time high above $2,600/oz. Strong physical demand from China and central banks supported gold prices over the past two years but investor flow, and retail-focused ETF builds in particular, continue to hold the key to a further sustained rally over the upcoming Fed cutting cycle. Silver also looks compelling with investor length less subscribed than gold and industrial metals now regaining upwards momentum on stronger demand signals from China and macro tailwinds from the start of the Fed easing cycle.
Speaker:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 20, Sept. 2024
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789980-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799877-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their thoughts on US interest rate derivatives markets ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Senior Derivative Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 9/16/24.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792463-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We discuss the FX market implications from the upcoming FOMC and other G10 central bank meetings.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 13 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792216-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers: Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research
Agri commodity markets have been in short covering mode since early August after investors established an historic short seasonal position. Prices are now entering a period of strongly positive seasonality, while the fundamental outlook is trending increasingly constructive. Weather risks persist, and dry conditions are shaving yield potential off US crops, reducing European wheat production, threatening Brazil’s sugar output and raising concern for South American soybean planting delays. Meanwhile geopolitical premium is back on the table...just as the FAO Food Price Index had started to stabilize.
This podcast was recorded on 13 Sept. 2024
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This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4792960-0,, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4793313-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4785154-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research to unpack the key takeaways from the recently concluded European High Yield Leveraged Finance conference in London.
Speakers
Stephen Dulake, Co-Head of Global Fundamental Research
John Sim, Head of Securitized Products Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on September 11, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790088-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis in their recently published update on Euro area government bonds demand.
This podcast was recorded on10 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4787964-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan and Jay Barry talk through the US employment data, Fedspeak and the outlook for US rates/ FX markets following a rollercoaster Friday.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4789008-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4790005-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
2 mbd of crude inventory draw since the end of June bring global stocks to their lowest level since 2017, confirming the resilience of global demand. Yet a substantially softer balance in 2025 is forcing the market to search for a price that will prevent OPEC+ from bringing volumes that are not needed. At current levels of inventories, we believe oil is $10 under-valued and under-owned. Yet, given oil’s significant underperformance in August, we shave our 4Q24 price forecast from $85 to $80, but keep 2025 unchanged at $75.
This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept. 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779731-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this week’s At Any Rate Podcast, our Global FX Strategists Meera Chandan & Patrick Locke discuss implications of recent rates compression for the dollar & global FX. We also discuss the outlook for EUR/USD, as well as the FX implications from US disinflation outpacing other parts of the world.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 23 August 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4779820-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Ben Jarman and James Nelligan discuss the non-linear links between central bank easing cycles and currencies in the context of upcoming Fed cuts.
Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ben Jarman, Australian and New Zealand Interest Rate Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on August 16, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773369-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan Interest Rate Strategist Phoebe White and US economist Mike Hanson discuss their takeaways from the July CPI report, the path ahead for Fed policy, and what we may (or may not) learn from Chair Powell at next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium. They also provide their views on rates and inflation markets following recent volatility.
Speakers:
Phoebe White
Michael Hanson
This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773440-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-TXGZRLBR for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.
Speakers
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on August 14, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4764990-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
JPMorgan Interest Rate Strategists Jay Barry and Srini Ramaswamy discuss recent events in the markets and their views going forward. This discussion covers a lot of ground, from the weak Payrolls report and subsequent Fed-speak, to recent headlines about issuance in the 20Y sector, to carry trade unwinds, swap spreads, volatility and the Fed’s balance sheet normalization.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy
Srini Ramaswamy, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 August 2024
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4758481-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4767527-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this week’s podcast, Global FX Strategists Arindam Sandilya & Patrick Locke discuss the current state of the FX carry trade, as well as the outlooks for JPY, USD, CNY & FX vol.
This podcast was recorded on August 9, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4765082-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss the extreme volatility in global markets impacting EM assets, how to assess the risk outlook and whether to adjust views around EM markets..
This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Benjamin Shatil discuss the outlook for BoJ ahead and the Yen ahead of next week’s BOJ and Fed monetary policy meetings.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Ben Shatil, Economic & Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4755666-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
On the cusp of a Fed cutting cycle with US labor markets softening and the US election news cycle turning increasingly volatile in the run up to November, we maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold and silver. Even if the coming Fed cutting cycle comes with twists and turns given potential post-election US policy changes, we still think gold sits in a prime position. While physical demand in China has cooled for now, structurally bullish drivers including US fiscal deficit concerns, central bank reserve diversification amid de-dollarization, inflation hedging, and simmering geopolitical risk all look set to remain supportive factors for gold and silver.
Speakers:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4740899-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry, Teresa Ho, and Phoebe White discuss recent developments in funding markets and how that may influence the path for QT. They also preview the August refunding and discuss next week’s FOMC meeting.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Co-Head, US Rates Strategy
Teresa Ho, Head, US Short Duration Strategy
Phoebe White, Head, US Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4754513-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4753546-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4747894-0 GPS LINK for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Eric Beinstein, Head of U.S. High Grade Credit Research and Strategy and Amy Sze who heads ABS Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.
Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Eric Beinstein, Head of U.S. High Grade Credit Research
Amy Sze, Head of ABS Research
This podcast was recorded on July 23rd, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4744651-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4751803-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720096-0, for more information please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this week’s At Any Rate podcast, Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke & Arindam Sandilya survey current investor sentiment around the FX asset class, and discuss implications of recent shifts in the US political landscape for the broad dollar.
This podcast was recorded on 22 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at:
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4750793-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4750927-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4751397-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The events of the past few weeks, President Biden’s poor debate performance, followed by Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, have led to a clear shift in the tone of the elections and increased the probability for a sizable Red Wave. Given the range of scenarios that could play out, gold stands out as a winner. The first edition of our Commodities 2024 US Elections Watch focused on implications for the commodities under a split Congress outcome, now we assess what GOP control of all Washington levers of power could mean for the sector.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2024
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4746885-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4748583-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss a new class of options-based trades that are designed to trade the volatility of principal components of the US Rates markets.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4742403-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui update views on EM markets and discuss the impact of the US elections vs the supportive global data.
Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week, our Global FX Strategists discuss the outlook for yen flows with focus on GPIF, the dollar’s reaction to CPI & payrolls, and the implications of the latest data for EUR, GBP and Scandi FX.
This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui update views on EM markets and discuss the impact of the US elections vs the supportive global data.
This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Our balances suggest a ~1.0 mbd deficit in oil liquids in 3Q, comprised of a large 1.6 mbd surplus in products, but a massive 2.4 mbd draw in crude. This dichotomy represents a historic norm in terms of direction, but is an anomaly in terms of scale. Supply and demand so far have performed largely in line with our expectations, but if there is a weak spot in our balances, it would likely be on the refining side. Throughout this year we have been consistently downgrading our projections for growth in global processing rates for 2024, and now see only 1 mbd growth this year vs 1.8 mbd originally. We maintain our long-held view that Brent oil will reach $90 by September, average $84 in the third quarter and $83 for the year, before dropping into mid-$60s in 4Q25.
This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4740131-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
JPMorgan's strategists specializing in the Treasury, Inflation, Short Term and Derivatives markets discuss their views over the remainder of the year.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Executive Director, U.S. Government Bonds
Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy
Jay Barry, Managing Director and co-head of US Rates Strategy
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on July 8, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/scx/-va7mace/FD6ajB__KxREVg3CXo4bYw/GPS-4735741-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
China’s imports of commodities are at all-time highs, in stark contrast to the wider, faltering macroeconomic growth in the country. As the world’s single largest consumer of commodities, China has three main sources of vulnerability: (i) it has abundant domestic resources of coal and rare earth but is relatively poor in others, (ii) with only 7% of the world’s arable land and limited fresh water resources, the country feeds about 20% of the world’s population, and (iii) most commodities are shipped to China via eight marine choke points—including the Strait of Malacca—over which the US has significant influence. To ensure the long-term security of strategic commodities, China is pursuing a three-pronged strategy: (i) more efficient development of domestic mineral and agricultural resources, (ii) establish control of resource bases overseas via equity stakes and partnerships, and (iii) build-up of strategic stockpiles. Given the increasing share of China-owned assets in the country’s total commodity import mix and China’s goal to boost its strategic reserves, the nation’s imports of natural resources will continue to grow.
This podcast was recorded on 3 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4466326-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Strategists Francis Diamond, Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Aditya Chordia discuss the first round of voting in the French elections, implications for the outcome after the second round and the recent reaction in French spreads and broader European fixed income markets. They also touch briefly on the upcoming UK general election.
This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4736223-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4736551-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4732647-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Junya Tanase, Antonin Delair, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the the main macro FX themes for 2H. They highlight a constructive USD backdrop, yield compression, US elections and policy RV as the main themes.
This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4735478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Lorenzo Ravagli, Ladislav Jankovic, and Juan Duran-Vara discuss the H2 outlook for FX Derivatives.
This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4735478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Our long-held view remains unchanged: we project Brent oil to average $84/bbl in the third quarter and hit another $90 by August/September, underpinned by our expectations that global demand will outpace supply in the summer quarter. Demand indicators look solid, especially in the all-important US market and peak refinery demand for crude is now firmly in place and should last through August. Meanwhile, OPEC waterborne crude exports are trending at their lowest monthly volumes in two years so far in June. Crucially, despite the 10% price rally, the short base by speculative investors has not been closed, with more room for financial demand to recover.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4728936-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and Pankaj Vohra discuss what is driving/will drive the growth of the stablecoin market YTD and going forward, how their growth could have implications for the Treasury market, and other complementary developments in this space.
Speakers:
Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
Pankaj Vohra, Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4698337-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe white discuss trends in Treasury market liquidity. Trading volumes have increased, market depth and microstructure data indicate improved liquidity as well, but off-the-run dispersion has increased, and dealer inventories have climbed recently. Overall Treasury market functioning seems to be sitting at post-pandemic averages.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy
Phoebe White, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on June 21, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724030-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week, our Global FX Strategists Meera Chandan, Ben Jarman & James Nelligan break down the currency implications from a range of policy meetings and key economic data across Europe and Australia/New Zealand.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Ben Jarman, Australian and New Zealand Interest Rate Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4728769-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
We believe the recent pullback in commodities is just that—a pullback—and we continue to see a 10% appreciation in the broader BCOM Commodities index by year-end. Underpinning our constructive BCOM and sectorial recommendations is the expectation that in addition to supportive fundamentals over the next two and a half months commodities would be likely exposed to a confluence of forces, among them weather-related volatility and pests, but also European Parliamentary elections, China’s Third Plenum and the onset of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle.
This podcast was recorded on 21 June2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717019-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Spreadbites is a new monthly podcast and video series where we discuss key trends in credit markets. Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research and Tarek Hamid, Head of North American Corporate Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.
Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research
Saul Doctor, Head of Credit Derivatives and Index Research
Tarek Hamid, Head of North American Corporate Credit Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 18 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720176-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4704389-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4720096-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest themes in US interest rate derivatives markets.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4722179-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
On this episode, Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss the implications of the recent events in Europe on Treasury market liquidity, as well as their takeaways from the downside surprise in May CPI and their thoughts ahead for US rates and inflation markets. They are hesitant to take too much signal from the weakness in core inflation in May and still expect the first rate cut in November.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725284-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss some current key themes and topics for European rate markets. French politics is the focus for Euro rate markets and with the situation fluid they discuss what has changed over the past few days and how that impacts on view on French spread and other intra-EMU spreads. They also touch on UK political developments this past week and the June BoE meeting.
Speakers:
Francis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy
Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723970-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Acknowledging the notable slowdown in drilling activity, we now expect annual US crude oil output, including condensate, to increase by 362 kbd in 2024 and 395 kbd in 2025. While oil recovered per foot drilled in the US shale basins fell 12% since its peak in 2021, operational efficiencies, which began being implemented more widely last year, are more than offsetting declining productivity and relatively low rig count. On annualized basis, we project another 400 kbd growth in US NGLs supply in 2024 and an additional 350 kbd in 2025. Combined, we estimate total US oil liquids production will grow by 762 kbd in 2024 and 745 kbd in 2025.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4708264-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the implications of US inflation and the FOMC, as well as recent vol shocks for the dollar and FX markets.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui analyse the multiple global and EM-specific drivers of rise in volatility hitting EM markets.
This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Aditya Chordia and Meera Chandan discuss the path ahead for the French lower house elections in the coming weeks as well as implications for FX / rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on 11 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4721981-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723118-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4723362-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Take a seat at the table as we unpack key takeaways from our recently concluded annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference in London and highlight top themes in this special episode of At Any Rate.
Speakers:
Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM
Ayomide Mejabi, Frontier Market Strategy
Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy
Gbolahan Taiwo, Chief Economist, Africa (ex-SA)
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research
This podcast was recorded on June 10, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717869-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We assess the impact of this week’s FX carry trade deleveraging, as well as FX views from here after the ECB, BoC and US payrolls, ahead of key event risk next week.
Speakers:
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4719772-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4717071-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan economists and strategists discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets in H2, focusing also on the various channels in which the upcoming US election - which looks set to dominate H2 - can impact EM economies and fixed income markets.
Speakers
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist
This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713698-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Oil demand grew by 1.33 mbd in 1Q24, with crude-derived products such as gasoline and diesel comprising only 40% of that growth, compared to petrochemical products that use lighter natural gas liquids as a feedstock. In April, half of the 1.3 mbd YoY rise in reported demand came from petrochemicals, marking the shift into more crude-heavy summer consumption. Oil demand is moving from a seasonally low April and May into a peak summer travel season. Importantly, the composition in demand growth will likely shift from liquids-heavy petrochemicals to crude-rich products like gasoline and jet fuel. We still expect overall market fundamentals to improve and see a similar price action as observed last summer, with Brent oil moving $10 higher from current levels by September.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities and Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4711902-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Afonso Borges discuss the medium-term outlook for Treasury supply and the risks to the Treasury market ahead of next week’s first-tier data.
Speakers:
US Treasury Market Daily – Jay Barry
US Fixed Income Markets Weekly – Jay Barry
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4708661-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
FX markets focus will become US-centric with payrolls, CPI and FOMC on the calendar. But June also brings other G10 central bank meetings. We discuss outlook for currencies going into this key month and event risk.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4715460-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Fabio Bassi and Aditya Chordia discuss some current key themes and topics for European rate markets. They cover the upcoming May ECB meeting, valuations in swap and bond space views on swap spreads, the upcoming French ratings review and the relevance of European Parliamentary and the UK general election for rate markets.
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4713356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui and Tania Escobedo, revisit the forces behind the Mexican peso’s regime shift from a high-beta risk proxy to a lower-beta currency on a trend-appreciation path as Mexico benefits from the geopolitical dividends of nearshoring. They also touch upon upcoming risks around elections, as well as valuations.
Speakers
Luis Oganes, Global Head of Macro Research
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategy
Tania Escobedo Jacob, Emerging Markets Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 28 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4703117-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In the past two weeks, US Henry Hub and European TTF have rallied in price significantly. With US prices at one point climbing above $2.70/MMBtu and TTF crossing 35 EUR/MWh, we will discuss the drivers of these price moves higher, including the reduction in supply currently in place - both in US production and global LNG supply - and the fundamental changes that we expect to see as a result of the recent price rally. Additionally, we will dive deeper into headlines surrounding Golden Pass and the Ukraine/Russia transit deal, which could have implications to our current price forecast.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4705416-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4707597-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Take a seat at the table as Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Andrew Crook, Managing Director, UK High Yield Credit Sales and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, unpack the top takeaways for credit markets from the recently concluded J.P. Morgan Global Markets Conference in Paris.
Speakers
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research
Andrew Crook, Managing Director, UK High Yield Credit Sales
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research
This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666611-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4689640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan hosted its annual Global Markets Conference in Paris on 15-17 May. Judging from the speaker comments and questions from the audience, participants at the conference appeared rather sanguine about the US and global economic outlook. In this podcast the Macro Research team discusses their key takeaways from the sessions and conversations with investors, which covered a range of topics including the prospects for US soft landing, potential divergence between the Fed and other central bank easing cycles, geopolitical risks and the market implications of the US elections.
Speakers
Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research
Jay Barry, Co-head of US Rates Strategy
Fabio Bassi, Head of International Rates Strategy
Meera Chandan, Co-head of FX Strategy
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 21 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700544-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4704635-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700508-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691814-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
LME copper prices have surged nearly 30% year-to-date, jumping above $11,000/mt this morning with COMEX prices in the US still trading at a significant premium to the global LME benchmark. The massive widening of the COMEX/LME copper arb over the last week is more about positioning and inventory tightness in the US specifically and not reflective of a tight broader global refined copper market just yet. We remain structurally medium-term bullish on copper prices over the next two years as constrained mine supply is not going to alleviate quickly but current price levels are running well ahead of global refined market fundamentals at the moment. China’s refined market appears loose as demand is being deferred and delayed amid high copper prices while refined supply has stayed strong. A temporary correction in copper prices could be healthy to kick start Chinese demand and lay the groundwork for another eventual push even higher.
Speaker: Gregory Shearer
This podcast was recorded on 20 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4701703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita and Junya Tanase discuss the outlook for Japanese macro, BoJ policy and the Yen.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ayako Fujita, Economic and Policy Research Junya Tanase, Japan Markets Research
This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691315-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4702881-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4694204-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In lieu of our regular FX podcast, we present a joint webinar recorded earlier this week. Take a seat at the table as Bruce Kasman, Ayako Fujita, Greg Fuzesi , Meera Chandan and Samantha Azzarello unpack potential policy divergence among global central banks, top macro themes and their impact on future policy rates and currencies.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Bruce Kasman, Global Head of Economic Research
Ayako Fujita, Chief Japan Economist
Greg Fuzesi, Euro Area Economist
Moderator: Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research
This podcast was recorded on May 9, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4695538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan strategists and economists’ monthly discussion on the outlook for Emerging Markets fundamentals and markets.
Speakers
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist
This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691814-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the impact of the FOMC meeting and April employment report on the US rates and FX markets. They also delve into this week’s Treasury refunding announcement, Japan FX interventions, an analysis of the best bullish and bearish-USD expressions and the medium-term outlook for USDJPY and EURUSD.
Speakers:
Jay Barry
Meera Chandan
This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 03 May 2024.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil take a deeper dive into swap spreads in the US markets and how that connects to a kind of term premium.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4684943-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
James Nelligan, Khagendra Gupta and Morten Lund discuss our main economics, Rates, and FX views in Sweden and Norway ahead of the central bank meetings.
This podcast was recorded on 02 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680274-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680274-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4688989-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678480-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4687572-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers
Tracey Allen, Head of Global Commodities Research
Gbolahan S Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4687740-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week our FX strategists discuss the implications of the dovish BoJ meeting for JPY as well as lingering FX intervention risk. We also look ahead to US event risk for the dollar next week with a full data calendar and the FOMC.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Benjamin Shatil, Economic and Policy Research
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4686012-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speaker:
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Last week, we attended Cesco Week, one of the leading copper events globally, which brings together the most important producers & consumers and industry leaders each year in Santiago, Chile. We encountered nearly universal bullishness on copper prices over the medium-term, though near-term, there was still a sense that the current copper rally may be running ahead of still slack refined market fundamentals which could take some further time to tighten over the coming quarters. Despite the potential for near-term volatility, there was a broader acknowledgement that we are now entering a new upwards trend for copper prices. Tighter refined copper markets over the course of this year and next look somewhat inevitable, stressing low global above ground stocks. Amidst near-term supply tightening already, progress on filling end-of-decade supply gaps looks nearly non-existent from many major producers and time is now beginning to run very short.
This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4680427-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4682555-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Spreads Product Research, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Daniel Lamy, Head of European Credit Strategy Research and Nelson Jantzen, from High Yield, Leveraged Loans and Distressed Leverage Credit Research to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets.
This podcast was recorded on 23 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664711-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670934-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666443-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the strength of this tax season and what that tells us about the TGA, the debt ceiling, QT, and the lowest comfortable level of reserves.
Speakers
Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy
Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678572-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4678829-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan outline our constructive USD view and the implications of the joint statement from Japan/ Korea/ the US this week.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4676229 -0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Oil shrugged this week’s escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. To some extent, this could be explained by the fact that some of the geopolitical risk premium was already priced in. Since last October we have viewed market reaction to political events in the region to be excessive for two reasons. First, main players in the Middle East have strong incentives to keep the conflict contained given the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the Gulf region requires sustained absence of conflict. Second, the closure of Hormuz is a low-risk event as Iran will be shooting itself in the foot both economically and politically by irritating its main customer.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on April 19, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4674589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
With timing being the key behind our bullish regional Henry Hub story, the reversal of a preliminary junction granted to Energy Transfer a year ago may provide relief for future LNG demand. Meanwhile, the USDA’s April WASDE was neutral-to-bearish relative to average trade expectations, leaving unanswered questions for South American corn and soybean production, after yet another month of local write-downs.
Speakers
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on April 12, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4670498-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671902-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and duration generally. As for Gold, Greg dissects the reasons for the recent rally and reviews whether the rate cutting cycle is going to be as bullish for Gold as it was historically.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of Inflation Strategy
Thomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset Strategy
Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on April 11, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671684-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667440-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671783-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the moves in secured funding rates and Treasury yields in the wake of strong manufacturing and employment data, and preview the risks around March CPI and the April tax date.
Speakers
Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy
Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655558-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4664658-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode, Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss some current key themes and topics for Euro area rate markets. They cover the upcoming April ECB meeting, the recent fiscal announcements and noise in France and Italy, views on swap spreads, drivers of Euro volatility and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation markets.
Speakers
Francis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy
Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy
Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4666360-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week, our FX Strategists Patrick Locke, James Nelligan & Ladislav Jankovic discuss USD & G10 FX trends amid a backdrop of strong US data & higher yields against improving global growth signals, and also break down implications for the dollar from higher oil, weaker CAD data and prospects for CHF depreciation.
This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4667578-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s decision to cut oil production could push Brent oil price to $100 by September. But there are multiple counter-measures that could act as a suitable rebalancing mechanism. The US can release up to 60 mn bbls of crude from the SPR and demand could buckle. For now, we keep our long-held price forecast unchanged ($90 by May, $85 in 2H24), awaiting further clarity regarding Russia’s actions, but acknowledge that the way to our price projection may be through $100.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4660256-0 . For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss FX implications from DM central bank superweek and outline expectations ahead of the upcoming BoC/ Riksbank meetings.
This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656374-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcome of the FOMC and BoE meetings, and the implications for US and UK rates markets.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy
Francis Diamond, Head of UK and Euro Cash Strategy and Head of Global Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656360-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657369-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4657417-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Driven by a surge of financial inflows, copper prices have jumped higher in March, eclipsing $9,100/mt earlier this week for the first time in a year. Copper prices are finally responding to the intensifying supply tightness that has skewed us bullish on the metal since last December. We retain this bullish medium-term bias but now need micro indicators in China to turn around and begin actually signaling a tight fundamental market to sustain upwards price momentum from here. With refined copper supply looking most at risk in the coming quarter and Chinese demand entering its seasonal peak period as well, we still think a broader move higher towards our bullish year-ahead target of around $10,000/mt is in the offing, even if the road there is somewhat bumpy.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652097-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655420-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and James Nelligan preview the upcoming Norges and Riksbank meetings and discuss our views in the FX and Rates market.
This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2024.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We discuss the behavior and outlook for yen in the aftermath of a historic BoJ meeting.
This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655242-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655046-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the February inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, the Fed, and rates markets. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time. In the Fed's SEP released next week, we think there are better than even odds that the median dot for this year moves to showing two 25bp cuts by YE24 vs. the three such cuts in the December dot plot. We change our Fed call, and now look for 75bp of cuts this year, or one 25bp every other meeting beginning in June. Accordingly, we revise higher our Treasury yield forecasts for the balance of the year.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653388-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4653424-0 and here; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4652552-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for currencies amidst a heavy central bank event calendar next week.
Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650281-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We believe Russia can maintain oil exports at current levels through June even as it cuts 0.5 mbd crude production. Russia can achieve this by offsetting 200 kbd reduction in banned gasoline exports with higher crude oil shipments as constrained refinery runs due to drone attacks and maintenance that runs from April through June lower processing rates. After June, Russia would likely have to cut exports to accommodate lower crude production setting the stage for a contentious June OPEC+ meeting.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4649503-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden
Saad Siddiqui
This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650338-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss recent developments in the US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and our views going forward
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2024
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4643590-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Ben Shatil & Patrick Locke discuss USD/JPY dynamics ahead of the upcoming BoJ meeting, implications of recent US data for the dollar, and the outlook for EUR after this week’s ECB meeting.
This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648213-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Gold prices have shot to new highs this week largely catching the market by surprise given relatively minor moves in rates and FX. The sharp rally demonstrates the immense power of flow in gold and previews why we remain structurally bullish the metal over the next year. Yet, for us to ultimately reach our upside price targets we need to unlock more than just the systematic momentum inflows we likely saw this week. This will require continued moderation in inflation and US jobs data in the coming months to solidify Fed cut expectations and ultimately trigger the next leg of inflows from discretionary funds and ETF holders necessary to push prices up towards our $2,300/oz ultimate target.
This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4644713-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The team discuss the key features and developments of the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Virginia Martin Heriz, Head of ESG Research Methodology and Integration
Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy & Implementation
Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4610201-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
21.6 million electrified vehicles (BEV, PHEV, hybrids) were likely sold worldwide in 2023 or 33% of total auto sales. Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids. Fully or partially electric vehicles represent now 7% of the global fleet, likely shaving almost 500 kbd off global gasoline demand between 2019 and 2023, with 400 kbd of those from the US and China. Increasing pressure from electrification and efficiency gains will likely lead to a first on record outside of recession contraction in global gasoline demand in 2025 and a cumulative loss of 0.9 mbd by 2030.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4633431-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Jake Pollack, Global Head of Credit Financing to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets, following on from J.P. Morgan’s 2024 High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference.
This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4641255-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4631154-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4615611-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4571639-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-GQ71W05A for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode, Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the recent flash HICP inflation print, the upcoming ECB meeting and the UK Spring budget and the implications for both Euro and UK rates markets. They also discuss thoughts around the expected outcome of the ECBs review of its operational framework.
This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4642541-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the outlook for rates and currencies ahead of Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony, the ECB meeting, and February employment data next week.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4640038-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4641490-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635376-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis published in our Global government bond activity chart pack.
This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635297-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil discuss recent market developments that will likely result in a later QT taper and what that means for markets with respect to ON RRP, reserves, SOFR, and swap spreads.
Speakers:
Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 26 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4636544-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4633120-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, Ben Jarman and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid a less dovish tone in bond markets.
Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635313-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
While US natural gas prices made historic lows not seen since 1995 last week, European and global LNG prices have slid to lows not seen since before the Russia/Ukraine war. As prices have fallen, we have seen some interesting comments this earnings season which are likely the very result of these low prices. In the US market we will discuss one producer’s move to defer production while in the European market we will discuss what appears to be signs of life for industrial demand.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4622508-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the January inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, growth, and rates markets. CPI, PPI and import price inflation all came in stronger than expected in January, even as retail sales data disappointed. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time and stick with our call for the first rate cut to come in June. We like positioning for lower front-end real yields.
Speakers:
Phoebe White
Michael Feroli
This podcast was recorded on 16 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
With US natural gas price reaching lows not seen since 1995, it begs the question what is the path forward for US natural gas producers this summer? In this podcast, we will discuss how the US natural gas market got here and whether it changes our views on being bullish 2025 price. We think a further and perhaps more substantial slide in price could ensue if early-indications of March weather were to also suggest milder than normal.
Speaker:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 16 Feb 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4629952-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week, FX strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan discuss the lack of follow-through on the dollar following US CPI, as well as implications from inflation data elsewhere around the DM space.
This podcast was recorded on 16 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view related research at www.jpmm.com for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4628065-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy
Ipek Ozil
This podcast was recorded on February 14, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4621321-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan strategists and economists’ monthly discussion on the outlook for Emerging Markets fundamentals and markets.
Speakers:
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economics
This podcast was recorded on 9 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4621172-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We discuss market pricing of growing tariff risks and US exceptionalism as durable Dollar supports. CNY focus given newsflow around China equities. In the European space we opine on recent NOK and CHF-related developments.
Speakers:
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4623391-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Our Brent outlook continues to project a tightening market with prices rising from here by another $10 by May with zero risk premium and a 400 kbd unwind of voluntary cuts. So how do we get there? Same as in the third quarter of last year, via a drop in inventories. On a global scale, the world’s onshore crude inventories sit at 4.4 billion barrels—a record low since the start of 2017, when Kpler began tracking the data. Incoming demand data suggest an improving rather than cooling global economy while OPEC+ crude exports have been declining.
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 9, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4620490-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We discuss the FX and rates implications of from key US events this week: the Treasury refunding, the FOMC and the employment report.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 2 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617599-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4618750-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617514-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4619056-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4619849-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4616636-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy & Chemicals
We continue to project Brent oil reaching high $80s by May, with our constructive outlook relying heavily on our optimistic view on demand, especially China. Despite tepid economic growth momentum, Chinese oil consumption hit an all-time high of 16.03 mbd last year, delivering a 1.2 mbd growth vs 0.8 mbd expected at the start of 2023. The supporting factors that boosted oil demand growth in 2023 are fading, but there are few signs that China’s oil demand is slowing. We project the world’s top crude importer to consume an additional 530 kbd of oil in 2024, accounting for a third of the 1.5 mbd growth in global oil demand and its single largest source. Our constructive outlook on demand requires an increased call on refining output however China’s dominance in global refining activity growth will likely ease in 2024.
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4614178-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan and Anezka Christovova discuss the ongoing global yield compression and implications for carry currencies.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 30 Jan 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602355-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557694-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557696-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4566567-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Francis Diamond and Allan Monks discuss the upcoming February BoE meeting and views on UK rate markets. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates, but given the clear shift in inflation surprises and perceived risks since November, we believe the Bank will almost certainly make a dovish pivot that puts future easing higher up on the agenda than before. August is our current call, although its hard to argue too strongly against June. The BoE will not shut the door on a potential May cut, but we think it will also not want to encourage expectations for an easing that early. We keep a bullish duration view at the front end of the UK curve via longs in 1Yx1Y SONIA and money market curve flatteners.
This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4614062-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Rates strategist Jay Barry and Chief US economist Mike Feroli discuss the outlook for policy in the week ahead, including expectations for the FOMC meeting, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and the implications for US rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4611261-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4613934-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss recent policy developments in China and discuss the dovish tide that is envelopingall DM central bank ex-BoJ.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 26 Jan 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4611445-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602355-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
There are two interesting supply dynamics happening in two very different commodities that are both grabbing a lot of attention in early 2024: copper and natural gas (both dry gas and LNG). In copper, a tightening across the upstream concentrate market is happening much quicker than expected and appears to be lurching towards a breaking point. The boosted risk of margin-induced production cuts at smelters could lead to a deeper refined copper deficit over the course of this year and continues to boost our conviction in a bullish trajectory for prices. In natural gas we cover some of the recent whipsaw moves in US natural gas prices and whether it is enough to change near-term production estimates out of the US. Additionally, we address today’s announcement by the Biden Administration of a temporary halt in approvals for US LNG export facilities and its potential impact to the global market.
This podcast was recorded on Jan. 26, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4582924-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4606675-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4606708-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4591164-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4610323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent developments in US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and their views going forward.
Speakers
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on January 22, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting and current views on Euro area rate markets, intra-EMU spreads, swap spreads and Euro volatility.
This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4607876-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid an early year challenge to the bond market’s disinflation optimism.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4605640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
As we put a bow on 2023, our view remains that oil demand growth will slow from a very strong 1.8 mbd in 2023 to a still strong 1.5 mbd in 2024, underpinned by a moderating but still resilient global economic expansion and remaining pent-up oil demand. On the supply side, producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance again should drive overall growth in supply—projected at 1.6 mbd—matching growth in demand. All of this means a largely balanced market, with Brent prices averaging $83 for the year. The biggest pushback against our view has not been the balanced supply-demand outlook, but whether a balanced market is indeed worth $80.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on January 19, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602932-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
J.P. Morgan’s economics and fixed income strategists discuss the opportunities across local markets, sovereign and corporate credit in Türkiye as the narrative of a policy pivot gains traction.
Speakers:
Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM
Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy
Michael Harrison, Emerging Markets Strategy
Fatih Akcelik, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Zafar Nazim, CEEMEA Credit Corporate Research
YM Hong, Emerging Markets Credit Corporate Strategy
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Research
This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2024
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4589700-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode, we discuss the December inflation data, the widening in the CPI/ PCE wedge, and the potential impacts of trade disruptions in the Red Sea on core goods inflation and commodity prices. We review the implications for US rates markets.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy
Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 12 Jan 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We discuss the outlook for the dollar and FX markets with focus on select Asia currencies: CNY, JPY and Antipodean FX.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ben Shatil, FX Strategy and Japan Economics
This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4599991-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this episode, we discuss the minutes of the December FOMC minutes. The balance sheet discussion read dovishly, and portends an earlier end to QT than our baseline forecast. We discuss the implication for funding, rates, and MBS markets.
Speakers
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy
Nick Maciunas, Securitized Products Research
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We take stock of FX markets at the start of the New Year, discussing the outlook for the broad dollar and other DM currencies.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4594494-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In our last podcast for the year, we discuss the recent flurry of DM central bank meetings and implications for FX.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4585090-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Brent oil price at $74 is $8 too cheap vs our model-derived fair value of $82 for December. Given our optimistic view on demand next year, we see Brent oil trading in the low $80s by March and high $80s by May. We find current oil prices in the lower range of the trading band and see the recent sell-off as a potential buying opportunity—even with thinning liquidity ahead of the holiday period—given our divergence with consensus on fundamental factors affecting oil market dynamics in 2024. Given our outlook on demand, we argue that there is no need for further OPEC cuts were the alliance to accept lower oil prices in the mid-$70s to mid-$80s range. Instead, we believe, the alliance should unwind some of the voluntary reductions in order to gain operational flexibility when demand growth takes a step down in 2025 (and potentially 2026), when most of the post-COVID demand normalization is behind us and decarbonization policies begin to cut into demand for some products.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4582283-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This week, our FX Strategists, Patrick Locke, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan take stock of feedback and price action following the release of our Year-Ahead Outlook last month. We also discuss recent developments surroundingJPY & CHF, as well as the tactical outlook for FX into a week full of event risk.
This podcast was recorded on 08 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4554862-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Speaker:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural gas Research
Calendar 2024’s quickly weakening price as a result of not only significant changes milder in weather forecasts but also lofty daily production prints kicked off the weakness in 2025 price. The speed and magnitude of the price move lower was primarily driven by investor positioning in a very crowded long 2025 trade which has likely been cleaned up this week. Despite adjustments to our LNG timeline following recent announcements and an end-Oct 2025 storage trajectory nearing 4.2 Tcf, we do not see a reason to give up on the bullish cal 25 narrative. Focus on the Southeast balance shows that even just the start of the Plaquemines natural gas facility could result in acute tightness in the region as stronger withdrawals and weaker net injections will likely support price in 2025.
This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4579745-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their outlook for interest rate derivatives markets in 2024.
This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4554285-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 29 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4539172-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553481-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4566999-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In this podcast, Arindam Sandilya, Ladislav Jankovic, Lorenzo Ravagli and Juan Duran-Vara we discuss the FX volatility backdrop and six themes that we think are worth watching for 2024. Namely, 1) carry collecting, 2) JPY and x-JPY directional and volatility, 3) efficient hedges for unwinds in Latam, 4) defensive, low decay forward volatility structures, 5) US elections pricing, and 6) Convexity.
This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4565749-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557523-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
World oil demand is on pace to grow a solid 1.9 mbd in 2023, 1.6 mbd in 2024 and will likely decelerate to 1mbd in 2025. More than offsetting this is growth in non-OPEC supply, which surged by 2.2 mbd in 2023 and will likely expand by 1.7 mbd in 2024 and 2 mbd in 2025. To keep the oil market balanced, OPEC+ alliance would need to continue to constrain production, which throws a sharp focus on OPEC+’s exit strategy. We expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary production/export cuts through 1Q24 and unwind 400 kbd of cuts in April. However, a case could be made for choosing higher volumes in order to achieve better optionality in the future. Our Brent forecasts for this year and next have not changed since June and are expected to average $81 for 2023 and $83 in 2024. We also extend our outlook through 2025 with an average Brent price target of $75/bbl.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 22 November 23
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4539172-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4567074-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this part one of the two-part year-ahead outlook podcast series, we explore the main FX themes for 2024 through a macro and systematic lens.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Antonin T Delair, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4565749-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568084-0.pdf
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The US cycle will be the big EM fixed income driver again in 2024, likely resolving either into a soft-landing or a recession. Given data equivalence will keep this unresolved in the near term, there is space for the smaller cycles of EM monetary policy and defaults to be the primary drivers of EM performance into the start of 2024. Stay OW EM FX focusing in high carry; receive EM rates front-end but stay MW in GBI-EM local duration; stay MW in EM Sovereign and Corporate credit. For FY 2024, we forecast local market (GBI-EM in USD) returns of 7.67%, with local yields -75bp to 5.76% and EM FX spot returns of -1.17%. We forecast EMBIGD spreads at 475bp (+50bp) and CEMBI BD spreads at 330bp (+30bp) for total returns of 12.2% and 10.0%, respectively.
Speakers:
Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Local Markets and Sovereign Debt Strategy
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Emerging Markets Economist
This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557696-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond, Khagendra Gupta and Aditya Chordia discuss the 2024 Rates Outlook.
This podcast was recorded on 21 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4562369-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Over the past several months the TTF market has been provided strong reminders of the lack of spare capacity in the event of a major supply shock. This has left a premium embedded in price to remain in place despite storage still at 99% full and structural demand loss still seemingly in place for industrial and residential/commercial demand. We believe this price premium is justified for now with so much time still left in the winter withdrawal season, but that price premium could start to fade as the market gets a better view of December weather and should that weather not appear. We think a further and perhaps more substantial slide in price could ensue if early indications of January weather were to also suggest milder than normal.
Speaker:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on November 10, 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548305-0. For more information, please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet int 2024, taking into account the Fed’s monetary policy framework, the expected evolution of reserves and ON RRP balances, and what this means for the timeline for QT.
Speakers:
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 9 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4555154-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 09 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We recently hosted a discussion on the US with analysts from across Global Research. Topics included the US economic outlook, Fed policy and the latest views on rates and the dollar.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Moderator
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This was recorded on 06 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4543411-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553781-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4549566-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 03 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4552508-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The price of oil has remained relatively subdued since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. This is consistent with our baseline view that oil price will exit the year at $86 before declining to an average of $83 next year amid slowing global economic growth. The main risk to our view is that a broadening of the conflict could close the Strait of Hormuz or that a more general Middle Eastern conflagration could ignite retaliatory responses from major oil producing countries. Crucially, for all of recorded history, despite many threats, the strait has never been actually closed off and oil continued to flow. Iran could retaliate in other ways, such as disrupting shipping in the Persian Gulf. But even the “Tanker War” of the 1980s—when 259 oil tankers were attacked between 1984 and 1987—did not impair Gulf oil exports or substantially increase world oil prices. Similarly, a 1970s style oil embargo by the Gulf oil producing states appears unlikely because two-thirds of GCC’s oil exports today are purchased by Asian clients and, importantly, the economic transformation currently planned and implemented in the region requires sustained absence of conflict.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 03 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4547564-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the recent stall in the US dollar’s uotrend, and also the outlook for key central bank meetings next week.
Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4546539-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Global upstream oil and gas spending is tracking $545 billion this year, up from $497 billion in 2022, based on data from 140 public companies and our estimate of private operators’ spending. The latest investment guidance is up 82% from 2020 lows, although still 22% below the 2014 peak. Similarly, producers are on track to complete 59,000 wells globally this year—a 33% decline from the 88,000 new wells put into production in 2014. Yet, total oil supply has risen by about 4% during 2014-2023. For scale, a 103% surge in capex between 2006 and 2014 resulted in a 7% global crude and condensate production growth. A key reason behind the stable production profile despite both investment and well activity levels dropping significantly since 2014 is the declining unit costs due to efficiency and productivity gains. While we find today’s ~$500 billion investment in upstream O&G supply healthy, we estimate that capital spend needs to stay at the current level in order to satisfy demand in 2030.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 27 Oct 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519242-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 26 October 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4543740-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Saad Siddiqui and James Nelligan discuss (a) macro tensions for FX stemming from improving momentum in China / Europe and a less aggressive Fed on the one hand, and rising US yields and escalating geopolitics on the other, and (b) why a flip in bond-equity correlations should result in greater safe-haven demand in currencies benefitting USD and CHF.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4538860-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
At $93/bbl today, Brent oil price is about $7 overvalued vs its estimated fair value—an appropriate premium given the uncertainty. But beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains that large inventory draws observed in 3Q23 will transition to a largely balanced market in 4Q23 (our model oscillates between 100 kbd build and 100 kbd draw) with Brent exiting the year at $86. Strange as it might seem, since 1967, with the exception of the Yom Kippur war of 1973, none of the other 10 major military conflicts involving Israel resulted in a lasting impact on oil prices. In contrast, during conflicts involving a major regional oil producer, oil traded at a wide $7-14/bbl premium to its fair value for an extended period. Currently, oil flows have not yet been affected, with limited risk of future supply losses, in our view. All significant parties in the region have powerful incentives to avoid the widening of the war. And so far they have acted accordingly.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4535649-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss their published views on the ECB and BoE meetings scheduled for next week and their potential market impacts.
This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4536377-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on October 19,2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4536659-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPM
In this podcast we discuss the amalgamation of supply risk factors from renewed strike fears in Australian LNG facilities to conflict in Middle East that sent European gas prices above 50 EUR/MWh. Amidst these developments, a move higher in US natural gas prices may be overlooked but since start of the month prompt contract is up 20%. The risk factors that we will discuss not only support the upside move in the prompt contract but also across much of the forward curve.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Strategy
Otar Dgebuadze, Global Energy Strategy
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4530064-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4531777-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4529854-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss our still-constructive view on the dollar and the recent downgrade to our EUR/USD targets to parity (from 1.05).
Speakers:
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 13 October 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4530064-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4531777-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After reaching our target of $90 in September, our end-year target remains $86/bbl. We maintain our view that August saw the largest deficit of the year and that inventory draws will transition to a slight build during the final four months of the year. Accordingly, crude backwardation should start to narrow and physical crude differentials for alternative Atlantic Basin grades should start to ease. Our balances assume healthy but slower demand growth in 4Q23 as we expect normal seasonal patterns in demand to be maintained this year. Crucially, demand restraint from rising oil prices is once again becoming visible in the US, Europe, and some EM countries. Accordingly, we believe that global oil inventories have built in September.
Speaker:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522039-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462795-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483453-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4510542-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522039-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 05 October 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the CTD shift in Treasury futures and its implications.
Speakers
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director, co-head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 02 October 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week we discuss the Dollar rally having stepped up a gear. Compare and contrast Q4-23 with Q4-22. Bottoms up USD drivers and positioning. European FX highest convictions.
Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 29 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4521884-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this podcast we discuss current risks plaguing the European and US natural gas markets, including the potential for power generation to provide some upside risk to our current 2024 price forecast for US natural gas and Norwegian outages that have helped the European natural gas market avoid storage congestion. However, ultimately we believe that weather firmly in the driver seat in dictating price formation for 2024.
Speakers
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Strategy
Otar Dgebuadze, Global Energy Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 29 Sept 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4518638-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522775-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 28 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4521773-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta, and James Nelligan discuss their recently published Scandi Monthly outlook. They explain our latest views on the diverging economic outlook in Scandinavia and its impact on rates and FX markets.
This podcast was recorded on 28 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520080-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their recently published Global government bond activity chart pack outlining our latest views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds.
This podcast was recorded on September 27, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515185-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies after a heavy week of DM central bank meetings.
Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan & Patrick Locke
This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4515282-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After reaching our target of $90 in September, further price gains may be limited as we believe most bullish cues—both macro and micro—for the market have been exhausted for now. Our end-year target remains $86/bbl, while acknowledging that the path to this target can take different shapes. Relative to July, macro sentiment in September might be close to an inflection as the focus shifts to higher-for-longer US rates and sticky inflation. With pump prices surging and a seasonal travel peak behind us, oil demand risks are shifting to the downside and the support of China’s pent-up demand recovery is likely behind us. Russian crude oil exports rebounded by more than twice than expected in September and fuel exports booked prior to the ban continue to flow while China’s oil product exports are also rising. Oil positioning is no longer short. Our view remains that sharp inventory draws in 3Q23 will transition into a slight build during the final four months of the year. Preliminary stock observations suggest a build in global oil inventories in the first week of September.
Speaker
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 22 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss their recently published Scandinavia Monthly Interest Rate Outlook outlining their views on the Swedish and Norwegian Interest Rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506279-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the implications of US resilience on US rates and FX markets heading into the ECB and Fed September meetings.
This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509235-0 , http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509511-0 , http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506527-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting in September and potential implications for Euro area rate markets and intra-EMU spreads.
This podcast was recorded on 08 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509538-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 08 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4506420-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Brent crude futures settled above $90 on Tuesday, for the first time this year. In the end, the extension of Saudi’s 1 mbd supply cut alongside Russia’s 300 kbd reduction in exports for an additional three months was needed to get the price there. Although we hold a constructive view on oil prices in the short term, we still don’t see oil prices breaching $100 in 2023, absent a major geopolitical event. As the market transitions from a large inventory draw in 3Q23, most visibly in the US, into a slight surplus in 4Q23 and 2024, prices should ease back toward the mid $80s. Both demand and supply will likely contribute to looser balances in the final quarter of the year, but the key to our lower price forecast is our outlook on the trajectory of demand in 4Q23. The softening in balances should be seen first in forward looking prices: in crude differentials for October loadings and softer structure at the front.
Speaker
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 8 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4499993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week, Global FX Strategists James Nelligan & Patrick Locke revisit US exceptionalism, China spillover to DM and take stock of the US political landscape.
This podcast was recorded on 05 September 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4504178-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Aditya Chordia and Francis Diamond discuss the latest themes and recommendations in Global SSA markets.
This podcast was recorded on 31 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4502123-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Khagendra Gupta and Matteo Mamprin discuss the recent dynamics of the upcoming September 2023/December 2023 Eurex futures roll cycle.
This podcast was recorded on 30 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4487200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the themes in the US Rates and Derivatives markets and themes going forward.
This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4494781-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Late-week official resistance can slow but should not upend the uptrend in USD/CNY. The euro has been resilient as real yields moved up the US, but is still overshooting and will not be immune if CNH weakness extends. USD/JPY likely to test 150 before MoF intervention.
Speakers:
Meera Chandan
Arindam Sandilya
Katsuhiro Oshima
This podcast was recorded on 18 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4491146-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle.
SPEAKERS:
Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4487168-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Ladislav Jankovic and Antonin Delair discuss the main themes in FX markets with focus on macro, systematic and derivatives sleeves.
This podcast was recorded on 11 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4486479-0
http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4481894-0
http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478190-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
On July 20, JP Morgan Commodities team recommended to raise allocation to commodities. Since then, commodities rallied but the move was driven by energy, while base metals moved sideways. BCOM Energy subindex surged 24% since mid-June and balances are pointing towards more upside in the near term. We see potential for US Henry Hub gas price to reach $3.30/MMBtu if a severe Australian LNG outage were to manifest alongside continued warmer weather forecast skew. We see Brent oil price hitting $90, or even above by September. But as the market transitions from a 3Q23 inventory draw into a slight surplus in 4Q23 and 2024, prices should ease back towards mid $80s.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on Aug. 11, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483453-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4484961-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss last week’s developments in the US Rates and Derivatives markets and themes going forward.
Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4479817-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss US Treasury funding needs, the Fitch downgrade for the US and implications for rates and FX markets.
This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478190-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4480993-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4478415-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The FY23 deficit is tracking about $1.5 trillion, but only thanks to the odd accounting of student debt forgiveness. Excluding student debt, the deficit would be closer to $1.8tn, and almost $1tn larger than in FY22. This widening should partly reverse as we move into FY24, when we project a deficit around $1.6tn. This year’s “stealth stimulus” may help explain the economy’s resilience to rapid interest rate hikes.
Speakers Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Phoebe White , Fixed Income Strategy Afonso Borges , Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on Aug. 1, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4471329-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss the FX implications for an event-laden week. US exceptionalism, European growth weakness and an incredibly slow BoJ pivot are the main themes.
Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4470939-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Drivers are paying more at the pump around the world. Prices for gasoline and other oil products like diesel and jet fuel have been rising in the US, Europe and Asia, as have been product cracks. The unwelcome shift higher in pump prices follows a jump in oil, which has climbed $10 so far in July to three-month highs partly in sympathy with a broader rally in commodities. Still, powerful fundamentals forces are at play in the Atlantic basin, some of them short term and temporary, but some structural and likely permanent.
Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities
This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4468929-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report GPS LINK for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui and Tania Escobedo, discuss how the Mexican peso is undergoing a regime shift and is no longer the high-beta risk appetite currency that it once was.
Speakers:
Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research
Saad Siddiqui, Head of EM Local Markets Strategy
Tania Escobedo Jacob, Latin America Local Markets Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4467683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Treasury supply has been in focus recently as the resolution of the debt limit has brought with it over $700bn in T-bill supply over the last two months. In coming weeks, the focus will shift toward longer-duration supply, as Treasury will likely announce increased coupon auction sizes at the upcoming August refunding. We preview the quarterly refunding announcement with a medium-term perspective toward Treasury issuance, and the implications for rate levels.
Speakers:
John Barry
Phoebe White
This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Catalyzed by the drop in US CPI inflation in June, near-term recession risk has moderated and the focus has shifted closer to the market’s favored scenario of a painless disinflation and economic soft landing. Amidst a broad-based rally in risky assets, commodities stand out as under-valued, under-owned, and backed by compelling fundamentals and technicals—a good entry point for a catch-up tactical allocation. The BCOM index gained 5% in July, but there is likely more where this came from. Should recessionary fears not materialize over the next six months, idiosyncratic risks leave the entire complex exposed to the upside, with the rally in BCOM extending. In order of preference, we favor natural gas, ags, oil and gold, and maintain neutral stance on base metals.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities
Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities
Gregory Shearer, Global Commodities
Tracey Allen, Global Commodities
This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462795-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The Global FX team previews a loaded week for policy decisions.
This podcast was recorded on 21 July 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461188-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4465556-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4460975-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss views on EM fixed income markets in the wake of recent data developments and heading into summer.
This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Patrick Locke and James Nelligan from our Global FX Strategy team discuss implications from last week’s outsized USD sell-off.
This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A structural shift is observed in the global energy markets, where big buyers of energy can now buy energy at a discount from sanctioned Russia, Iran and Venezuela, countries that combined represent close to 20% of the global oil exports. Crucially, this oil is now either sold in the local currencies of the buyers or in currencies of countries that are perceived as friendly. Consequently, US dollar now plays a more diminished role in determining oil prices. This de-dollarization trend in the commodity trade is a boon for some EM countries, which can now not only buy oil at a discount but pay for it with their own local currencies. This reduces the need for precautionary reserves of US dollars, US Treasuries and oil, which in turn might free capital to be deployed in growth-boosting domestic projects.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities
Jahangir Aziz, EM Economics
This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4459447-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies mid rising global bond yields.
Speakers:
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
OPEC+ has been cutting oil output since November and after Monday’s announcement of additional cuts, the alliance will be holding back more than 4 mbd from the market. Yet the moves have so far failed to significantly tighten balances and lift oil prices, despite demand running above expectations. The group’s recent struggles may reveal a difficult underlying trend: non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand. To fully regain market power this year, we estimate OPEC+ needs to deepen its cuts by another 0.7 mbd in 2H23 in addition to already announced reductions, with the full cut extended into 2024.
Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities
This podcast was recorded 7/7/2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4452093-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this podcast, we discuss the outlook for core inflation over the next 6 months. Though core CPI inflation should moderate toward a 3.0%ar in the three months through September, we anticipate core inflation to stabilize at a 3.2%ar pace during the final three months of the year.
Speakers:
Phoebe White
Michael Hanson
Murat Tasci
This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4449035-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities
We calculate the incentive price of oil needed to ensure that the world has enough investment—and oil—in 2030 and to close the supply-demand gap of over 4 mbd. Assuming 2% inflation, the low end of the range for the Brent incentive price sits at about $63 based on an IRR of 20%. An IRR of 25% moves the incentive price to $78/bbl. Under a 4% inflation scenario, the range is $80 to $100.
This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381901-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and how much value there is in EM local markets and hard currency bonds.
Speakers Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4446987-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Please join us for a discussion on the major takeaways from the second edition of our annual Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference, which was held in-person at our offices in London. The conference was attended by approximately 400 investors representing over 100 institutions, with 6 sovereigns and 27 corporate issuers participating.
Speakers:
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research
Ayomide Mejabi, Emerging Markets Strategy
Benjamin Ramsey, Emerging Market Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 27-June-2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan’s FX strategy team lays out the case for being defensive/ bullish USD going into 2H. Other themes discussed are: bearish views on CNY, GBP, JPY and Scandis; selective exposure to FX carry which remains elevated and opportunities in derivatives.
This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4443645-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
2H23 will deliver a continuation of the tightening journey for most of DM central banks, at least over the summer, although differentiation across jurisdictions will emerge as we approach the end of the cycle.
This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4445501-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
There has been much discussion in the last year over the inability of the existing sovereign debt restructuring architecture to deal with a new wave of sovereign restructurings in a world where China is now the largest bilateral creditor. The end of more than a decade of easy money and global shocks have lead several countries into default and bond markets have priced out market access for a host of others. This has led to a problem of increasing needs to restructure EM sovereign debt, but a larger cast of creditors and no clear restructuring rule-book are causing delays, which have economic and societal costs. The G20’s Common Framework (CF) aimed to get creditors together, but has stalled for many countries. With a hamstrung effort at new rules, and clear risks of more sovereign stress to come, there are many proposals for ways to improve or fully revamp the debt restructuring architecture. In this podcast, we take a look at the main issues that are troubling the current sovereign restructuring landscape, and review some of the proposed solutions.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 16 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420237-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy
In our 2023 Outlook last November, we forecasted that the oil market would be in surplus in 2023, with fair value for Brent averaging $84, but believed OPEC+ alliance would succeed in balancing the markets, thus scaling up our average price forecast for the year to $90. We no longer believe that to be the case and recently revised our average 2023 price from $90 to $81. We keep the rising price path unchanged, with inventories now starting to draw. Demand is running above expectations: absent a deep recession, global oil consumption will likely rise a solid 1.6 mbd in 2023. However, more than offsetting this, global oil supply is set to increase 2.2 mbd. It is becoming increasingly clear that high oil prices over the past two years did exactly what they are supposed to do—incentivize supply. Crucially, non-OPEC+ supply has been keeping up with global demand since the start of 2022, leaving the OPEC+ alliance having to cut production to balance the markets. Moreover, within the broader OPEC+ alliance, supply has been also rising outside the core members. Invariably, to make room for this supply growth, OPEC+ would need to cut more, were the alliance to adhere to the market management strategy.
This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4431498-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Natasha Kaneva and Saad Siddiqui discuss trends in de-dollarization through the lens of FX, commodities and EM.
Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4430393-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396295-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4416313-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week our global FX strategists Patrick Locke, Arindam Sandilya & James Nelligan discuss outlooks and targets for the broad dollar, with a focus on USD/CNY, EUR/USD,USD/JPY and GBP/USD.
Speakers Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 09June2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4432524-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
US oil producers are off to a hot start of the year while gas producers are seeing movement as well. Total US liquids production (crude, condensate, and natural gas liquids) has reached an all-time high of 18.9 mbd in March. Our basin-level production forecasts for both oil and gas are changing shape – driven by upside in the Permian and the falling rig counts in the US. Even with rigs falling, the locations are key as gas declines are expected by July.
Speakers:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities
Cole Wolf, Global Commodities
This podcast was recorded on 09 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4435603-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan & Patrick Locke discuss the FX implications from the resolution of the latest debt ceiling episode through the lens of growth, risk premium and liquidity.
This podcast was recorded on 05 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428044-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
OPEC+ alliance is scheduled to meet in Vienna this weekend amid continued weakness in crude’s price structure—both flat price and time spreads—along with increased speculative short positioning. On paper, and assuming no recession, OPEC’s April cuts should suffice to tighten oil balances in the second half of the year. Yet, so far the promise of future bullish supply tightening has not convinced the market of rising oil prices. It will take evidence in the physical markets (e.g., backwardation) to confirm what our balances imply before oil price can stabilize and begin to grind higher. For that, the alliance—or at least some members—would likely need to cut more. Communication is just as important as action in terms of market reaction to any cut. To avoid fueling the prevailing market narrative, it is important to stress that demand growth continues to be robust. Rather, there is simply too much supply.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this podcast, we discuss how the passage of debt ceiling legislation and the attendant rise in the TGA is likely to impact US rates markets.
Speakers
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy
Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 2 June 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4424256-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The healthy cushion in storage created by a mild winter for the European natural gas market has now put it on a direct path for storage congestion, potentially as early as August. Strong LNG imports amid weaker-than-anticipated global LNG demand and lackluster industrial demand even at lower prices continue to contribute to these fears of storage congestion. In this episode, we discuss our view for the slide in European natural gas price – a potential soft price floor that can emerge with lower prices encouraging demand - particularly in the power sector.
Speaker
Shikha Chaturvedi, Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 26 May 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4413200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and the divergence in performance between the local and hard currency pockets of the asset class.
Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 25 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4421835-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We see no fundamental shift in the parameters of our forecast. Our supply-demand estimates point to a largely balanced market in January through April and a first deficit in May—a view confirmed by the latest IEA report which shows that after eleven months of builds, OECD commercial oil stocks drew 14 million barrels in February, followed by a hefty 56 mn bbls draw in March. With demand resilient and world oil supply set to fall starting from this month as wildfires shut in Canadian barrels and voluntary OPEC+ cuts take effect, we continue to project further tightening in the balances in the second half of the year. Consequently, our pricing model continues to screen $90 Brent, a target that remains our price forecast.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4417827-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam and Meera discuss the abrupt loss in China’s growth momentum and implications for CNH, EUR and the broad dollar.
This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4417140-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest developments in EM fixed income and analyse how the overall volatility environment is impacting on the alpha and beta components of returns.
Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 18 May 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4414718-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss the risks facing global FX, and discuss recent developments across GBP, CHF, NOK and CAD.
Speakers
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 12 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4408998-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid banking sector stress and debt ceiling jitters in the US.
This podcast was recorded on 05 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4406134-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speaker
Gregory Shearer, Executive Director, Global Commodities Research
Gold prices continue to mount a seemingly Sisyphean climb to break above all-time highs getting knocked lower again by a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report for April. In contrast, base metals prices have slumped more notably in the last few weeks as Chinese demand remains underwhelming and recession uncertainties keep investors on the sideline. While gold and silver prices will likely continue to chop in a range until more certainty is gained on the Fed’s future rate hiking plans we still think the long-term direction of travel is higher. On the other hand, copper and other base metals could be in for a bumpier ride in the coming months.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Scandi economist Morten Lund joins Currency Strategist James Nelligan to give an overview of the FX outlook with the economic backdrop in mind for Scandi and UK markets.
This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at:
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396176-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4387929-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395340-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396665-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4378202-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4399379-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss the US rates and global FX outlook ahead of the upcoming central bank meetings and US employment report.
Speakers
Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy
Jay Barry, Co-Head of US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 28 April 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4398604-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Thomas Palmer, Vice President of US Food Producers and Food Retailers
This podcast was recorded on Apr 28, 2023.
Wholesale diesel price in NY Harbor fell 37% from year ago levels, spurring worries of an impending recession. But the weakness in the US demand for diesel—fuel used in everything from trucks to construction equipment—is not a new phenomenon. Similar to gasoline, we observe that American truckers have been driving more on less. Data show that while demand for petroleum diesel has stagnated, consumption of biofuels like biodiesel and renewable diesel has been growing. In 2022, biofuels accounted for 4% of total US diesel supply, a share that is projected to increase to 15% by 2030.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395279-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the role of the USD as a dominant currency, the changing nature of EM foreign reserves, and the impacts of the US debt ceiling discussion on EM fixed income assets.
Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on April 27, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4396295-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan and Saad Siddiqui discuss the outlook for FX given the gap end of cycle narrative and better than expected activity data.
This podcast was recorded on 21 April 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4380075-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4389047-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest drivers for EM currencies, a potential mis-pricing of front-end rates, and structural issues for distressed sovereigns.
Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 20 April 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4391474-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Saad Siddiqui, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, Ben Ramsey
Tune in as our Emerging Markets Research Analysts analyze country specific dynamics and potential risks for countries across EM, including Tunisia, Ukraine, Zambia, Egypt, Turkey, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Ecuador and Argentina.
This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers: Jahangir Aziz, Grace Ng, Sin Beng Ong
Listen to our Emerging Markets Economists as they summarize China’s reopening, PBOC and interest rate policies, and the potential impacts of geopolitical risks stemming from the region.
This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers: Luis Oganes, Saad Siddiqui, Cassiana Fernandez, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc
Join our research analysts as they discuss the state of EM, global monetary policy and idiosyncratic factors affecting some countries.
This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan and Roberto Henriques discuss the outlook for European banking sector and FX in the aftermath of US banking stress.
This podcast was recorded on 14 April 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4386463-0for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Our economists continue to look for a 25bp hike in May, followed by an extensive pause. Any pause by the Fed could mark a turn in what has been one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in decades. With oil market micro fundamentals turning positive, a shift in US monetary policy could be an important signal for the oil markets. Looking at Brent oil returns during 3, 6, 12, and up to 30 months after the Fed ends its hiking cycle, buying the last hike has proven to be the correct strategy historically.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 14 April 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4381809-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Oil experienced a bumpy ride in March as prices plunged mid-month on fears that weakness in the banking system could spark a full-blown recession. Consequently, 1Q23 will likely close $3/bbl below our forecasted price of $85. Looking at the very near term, Brent at below $80 looks at least $5-7 oversold purely on fundamental reasons. What could act as a catalyst?
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on Mar. 31, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4370703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent events in the banking system and its implications for the US Rates and Derivatives markets.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4369801-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
US strategists Patrick Locke & Phoebe White discuss this week’s Fed meeting, bank sector borrowing, and G10 inflation trends.
This podcast was recorded on 24th March 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4369375-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the impacts of the recent global banking stress on EM fixed income.
Speakers
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4368246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook following the eruption of banking sector stress in the US and Europe.
Speakers
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 17 March 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4363526-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The sudden failure of SVB and Signature Bank forced a rethink about the health of the broader economy and spooked markets. Brent lost $11/bbl (15%) of its value over the last 10 days to settle at $74.70 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest level since December 2021. In the US, WTI futures tumbled to $66 in New York on Friday. For comparison, over the same period, S&P 500 equity futures slumped 3.6%, and copper prices edged 3.3% lower. Natural gas prices on both sides of the Atlantic stayed largely flat, while gold rose near 7%. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi and Greg Shearer to discuss the volatility in commodity markets and the outlook for 2Q23.
Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on Mar. 17, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357675-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4358592-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359550-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the implications for EM assets of the large vol shock and increasingly late-cycle market moves.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on March 16, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4362300-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan held its 14th Global EM Corporate Conference in Miami (March 6-8). We provide a 15 minute summary of the main takeaways, highlight of survey results, and regional color from the conference.
Speakers:
YM Hong, Head of EM Corporate Strategy
Alisa Meyers, EM Corporate Strategy
Natalia Corfield, Latin America Corporate Research
This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4356352-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4359773-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva discusses why Chinese jet fuel demand is so important for global oil balances this year. In 2023, we project jet fuel to contribute 60% to global oil demand growth, with China accounting for 20% of that. Dragged down by a tepid recovery in international travel, China’s daily flights have stabilized at 84% of 2019 levels, 10%-pts below our initial estimates. We trim 1Q23 numbers but opt to keep our China jet fuel demand unchanged for 2Q23 and beyond. The most popular outbound destinations have lifted COVID testing requirements starting from March 11 and bookings for overseas travel have skyrocketed to Italy (59% vs 2019), Korea (29%), Australia (42%), and ASEAN (34%), suggesting outbound flights should pick-up significantly in the second half of March.
SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 10 March 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4354826-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss a round-up of FX views from recent meetings, refresh the global FX recessionary playbook, and look at recent developments for USD, EUR, JPY & CAD.
Speakers:Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357220-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We developed a news-based machine learning framework for finding what themes are driving the FX vols. The framework also complements traditional techniques of judging if FX vol is rich or cheap and is currently suggesting that FX vol as an aggregate is mildly cheap.
The framework currently identifies inflation as the most significant concern that investors remain most sensitive to, with commodities, central banks, market conditions and rates also been notable factors on that cross-section of news flows and FX vol beta to that news, but jobs only nominal / negligible.
We monitor 28 SmartTag categories of macro risk across global news reports and capture their changes in volume and anxiety (inverted tone). We test the sensitivity of each category against the VXY (as a proxy to FX risk) and identify what investors seem to be currently most sensitive to. Any category that tests significantly positive we mark as a “Category of Concern” (CoC) and measure how much it is contributing to (or reducing) our inferred risk.
This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4335589-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX US and rates markets heading into key US event risk.
This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351568-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4351146-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki and Ikue Saito.
This podcast was recorded on Feb 27, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4333234-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4332014-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4323617-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4303279-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343744-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4343845-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer and Tracey Allen to discuss commodities demand in China and how hopes for a strong China reopening have given way to concerns about falling cargo shipments, building commodity inventories and lackluster sales of homes and cars. While China’s economic recovery will drive its demand for all commodities higher, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most this year. Global LNG, metals and several ags markets are set to benefit later in the year and enjoy a full recovery in 2024.
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 24, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4340793-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for FX ahead of a possibly pivotal month.
This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4344557-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4329269-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest fundamental and market developments in EM fixed income.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4343228-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss J.P. Morgan’s bullish forecast update for gold and silver prices and recent activity in the market including unprecedented levels of central bank purchases. While we have held a constructive view on gold and silver since last September, rebounds in the prices of both metals since late last year have outpaced our expectations as the US dollar weakened more than expected. The recent post-payrolls jump higher in the US dollar triggered some technical breaks in gold and silver taking some built up froth out of gold prices in particular. However, we do not think its a game changer with both metals appearing poised to continue pushing higher in the coming quarters. Marking our price forecasts to market and embedding the latest JPM base case for falling US real yields and a largely neutral US dollar, we have upgraded our 2023 gold and silver price forecasts by around 10% and now see gold prices rising to average $2,045/oz in 4Q23 with silver increasing to an average of $26.6/oz.
SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325246-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
FX strategists Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets.
This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332305-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest macro trends and idiosyncratic developments driving EM fixed income assets.
SpeakersJonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 3 February 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325612-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Saad Siddiqui discuss the event-packed week and the ramifications for FX markets.
SpeakersMeera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Saad Siddiqui, Head of Local Markets Strategy for EMEA EM
This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325568-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0.pdf, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4324128-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The US Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that in the first eleven months of 2022, American drivers used 10 kbd less gasoline than in the corresponding period the year before and 540 kbd less fuel than in 2019—a surprisingly weak outcome given that Americans collectively traveled more last year than in 2021 and drove a similar amount of miles as in 2019. We see a modest increase in US gasoline demand in 2023 and a further improvement in 2024, but given the structural shifts in the US gasoline market, peak gasoline demand now appears to have been 9.85 mbd, set in August 2019. A structural decline in US gasoline consumption will reverberate globally given US gasoline accounts for 9% of global oil demand. The implications will be both on refining—via a mismatch in supplies of products and price spikes—and the quality of crude as focus of refiners shifts from fuels to chemicals and from crude to natural gas liquids as a feedstock.
SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 03 February 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4321829-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook ahead of next week’s central bank meetings.
This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318937-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by John Royall, Head of the US Integrated Oils & Refining equity research team to discuss the outlook for refined oil products like diesel ahead of the February 5 European embargo on imports of Russian oil products. Brent oil price has gained 13% from the bottom reached on January 4 to trade at $88/bbl, $5 above our model-derived fair value for January. While optimistic demand expectations from China’s reopening have helped oil regain December losses, we believe soaring middle distillate prices and cracks are mostly behind crude’s bullish price action. We expect volatility in distillate cracks and prices in 1Q23 around embargo implementation but see market imbalances clearing by 2Q23 and risk premium dissipating as Europe and Russia had a year to prepare.
SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
John Royall, Head of U.S. Integrated Oils & Refining equity research
This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4318088-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss positioning in EM fixed income assets and whether this could put the brakes on performance in the near term.
This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4317702-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya, Tohru Sasaki and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook after this week’ BOJ meeting.
This podcast was recorded on 20 January 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4313340-0for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Parsley Ong and Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss the implications of an earlier than expected reopening of the Chinese economy and recent revisions to our global natural gas outlook. While investors so far have chosen to play China’s reopening through metals, we believe oil is positioned to benefit the most. We upgrade China oil demand but maintain our Brent price forecast for the year at $90/bbl and see prices averaging $85 in 1Q, scaling up to $89 in 2Q and exiting the year at $94. Absent any major geopolitical events, it would be difficult for oil prices to breach $100 in 2023. Meanwhile, a bullish narrative for global natural gas markets is hard to maintain when winter weather struggles to appear – particularly when supply is plentiful.
SpeakersNatasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy and Chemicals Equities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on 20 Jan 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4311885-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4309913-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss whether a China reopening has been over- or under-priced by EM fixed income assets.
This podcast was recorded on January 19, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4312195-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss changes to the EUR, CNY & JPY outlooks.
SpeakersMeera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Ben Shatil, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 13 January 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4307604-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Gregory Shearer and Tracey Allen to discuss the exceptionally strong wintertime heat being observed across the Northern Hemisphere and its implication on the broader commodities complex. January forecasts of the Population Weighted Heating Degree Days index (PWHDD) for the Northern Hemisphere currently sit more than three standard deviations warmer than the 10-year mean, leading to swings in prices and pressures on fundamentals. At the same time, the team discusses the impact on commodities demand from an earlier than expected reopening of the Chinese economy.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agriculture Research
This podcast was recorded on 13 Jan 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and James Nelligan discuss the cross-currents affecting the dollar and highlight why cyclical G10 currencies in the euro bloc are underperforming.
This podcast was recorded on Friday 06 January 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4301207-0 , for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss what’s new for EM fixed income markets as we start the new year.
This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4299965-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX and rates markets following the soft US inflation print, FOMC and China re-opening.
This podcast was recorded on 16 December 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4284551-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4289691-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss implied PCA framework – a new forward-looking PCA framework that can be useful in identifying potential Fed regime shifts, and more.
This podcast was recorded on 13 December 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4267726-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In our latest rates strategy podcast, Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss our 2023 outlook themes for the Euro area, UK and inflation. We outline our thoughts on the upcoming ECB and BoE meetings, discuss our views on curve, duration, intra-EMU spreads, swap spreads and volatility as well as outline opportunities in inflation markets.
This podcast was recorded on 28 November 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4269808-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan, Benjamin Shatil, James Nelligan, Patrick Locke and Antonin Delair discuss JPMorgan’s Global FX Strategy outlook for 2023.
Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
Ben Shatil, Global FX Strategy
James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy
Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 23 November 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4268149-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4270636-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the outlook for emerging markets for 2023.
This podcast was recorded on November 23, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4269370-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for FX markets following the soft US inflation print and the seismic price action that followed.
This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4261385-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX and rates strategists Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for FX and US rates markets following the Fed and US employment data.
This podcast was recorded on 04 November 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at:
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4250579-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4246653-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4252466-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4254375-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4252859-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss how EM markets may react to an eventual peak in US policy rates.
This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4252794-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss the FX outlook leading up to next week’s FOMC meeting.
This podcast was recorded on 28 October 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4246166-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss recent crisis level EM bond market volatility which has brought reactions from policy-makers.
This podcast was recorded on October 27, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4244519-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Mike Feroli, Jay Barry, Srini Ramswamy, discuss the latest in US economics and rates strategy. Mike offers his view on the outlook for the economy and the Fed over coming months, and the conditions required to slower the pace of Fed hikes. Jay discusses the shifting demand backdrop in the Treasury market and how this could affect the yield curve, as well as liquidity environment and the potential for a Treasury buyback facility. Srini digs into the outlook for swap spreads, bank balance sheets, and implied volatility.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli Jay Barry
Srini Ramaswamy
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4233044-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4221745-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4232549-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4238988-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4239154-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4232596-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220597-0
please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss the FX outlook leading up to next week’s BoJ meeting and following events in the UK.
This podcast was recorded on October 21, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4238664-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We introduce a systematic strategy for identifying signals and selecting late-cycle / recession FX options hedges. 1) we first run Random Forest algorithm to zero in on the most relevant signals for hedging risk-off episodes; then 2) we build a 4-factor model that selectively buys defensive FXO based on model predicted P&L.
- The highest beta to risk-off events is achieved with four signals: m/m change in 1-y z-score of ATM vol, m/m change in 1-y z-score of realized vol, 1-y z-score of 6-month % change in spot, and m/m change in 1-y z-score of fwd pts/vol (i.e. carry/vol).
- We find short-term tenor to be most responsive to adverse episodes, 30%TV digitals to be showing the least decay, and the longer expiry structures tend to hold better during the low vol times. Overall 3M - 6M expires offer a good compromise.
- At current market, our 4- factor model favors high beta G10 digi structures with AUD structures dominating within the top 5: 3M to 6M 30%TV at-expiry digitals in AUD/SGD put, USD/CAD call, EUR/AUD call, GBP/USD put and/or AUD/CHF put.
This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only.
Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss latest areas of focus around EM debt for both policy makers and financial markets.
This podcast was recorded on 20 October 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4237302-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss why we are still bullish on the dollar and highlight our fresh targets for EUR, JPY and CNY.
This podcast was recorded on 13 October 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4231857-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4231649-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4225946-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan Co-Head of FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Chief US Economist Michael Feroli and Head of Beverages, Household and Personal Goods Analyst Andrea Teixeira are brought together by our Head of Content Strategy, Samantha Azzarello to discuss the outlook and the impact of a strong dollar.
This podcast was recorded on October 7, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220820-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Patrick Locke and Ladislav Jankovic discuss tactical and fundamental issues for sterling, as well as the state of play in derivatives markets.
This podcast was recorded on 30 September 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220251-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4220180-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4218921-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss the ongoing pressure on EM assets as US financial conditions tighten, which is now impacting less risky parts of EM FX and credit.
This podcast was recorded on September 29, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4218945-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara
This podcast was recorded on Sep 29, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4212921-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213038-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4214418-0.pdf , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213133-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4215243-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan and Ben Shatil discuss why USD/JPY will continue to rise despite the first MoF intervention in 24 years to buy yen and why we stay long dollars even with the broad index at five decade highs.
This podcast was recorded on 23 September 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4214409-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213038-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Tales Padilha discuss the impact of a hawkish Fed and rise in US real yields on EM fixed income markets.
This podcast was recorded on 23 September 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4213903-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan researchers Meera Chandan, Francis Diamond, Allan Monks and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for the UK economy, rates and FX markets following the historic fiscal plan.
This podcast was recorded on September 16, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4208824-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4208942-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4206423-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4201080-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In the podcast we discuss latest developments in FX options markets, touching on EUR and Yen positioning in FX options markets, Yen volatility surface backdrop, Brazil election pricing and European – LatAm relative value.
This podcast was recorded on September 12, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4203121-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4204124-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki and Benjamin Shatil
This podcast was recorded on Sep 8, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4200131-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4190370-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4195632-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Ben Shatil discuss the outlook for bellwether USD pairs at key levels—EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNY.
This podcast was recorded on 02 September 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4195632-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4197402-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX and Rates strategists Meera Chandan, Aditya Chordia and Francis Diamond discuss market implications of key European events in September—ECB/BoE meetings, Italian elections and the Tory leadership choice.
This podcast was recorded on 24 August 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4184594-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4185006-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan’s Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the Treasury roll and factors that may impact it.
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy
Ipek Ozil
This podcast was recorded on August 22 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4178736-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Greg Shearer discusses the recent supply closure announcements across base metals markets and why prices have seemingly shrugged off the headlines. As gas and power prices continue to rise in Europe, this week brought two additional closures of zinc and aluminum smelter capacity on the continent. Despite this and ongoing power rationing impacting supply in China as well, base metals prices have traded lower on the week as concern is now also rising that energy shortages are reaching a pivot point where demand could and will likely begin to be more severely impacted as well.
Speaker: Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on Aug 19, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4184535-0
For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan FX strategists Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss recent developments in the US, Europe and China and discuss the motivation for further dollar strength.
This podcast was recorded on 19th August 2022
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4184594-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4182953-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4182309-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4182228-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Eric joins us to discuss his latest credit market views given the recent rally.
Speakers
Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy
Eric Beinstein, US Credit Strategy
This podcast was recorded on August 17, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/resehttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159127-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159401-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tracey Allen and Ruhani Aggarwal discuss their latest fundamental and price assessment for agricultural markets through 2022-23. Grain prices are consolidating around costs of production after one of the largest ever positioning washouts on record through June-certainly more abrupt, increasing risks of a late summer recovery. With one go the warmest Northern Hemisphere summers on record threatening production potential across Western Europe, and Ukrainian agricultural exports flowing well below capacity indefinitely, agricultural markets warrant close attention. Price forecasts through 3Q22 have been marked-to-market, prompting lower revisions for grains, palm, sugar and cotton markets, amid a tighter fundamental environment. The forecast profile continues to embed a fundamentally driven recovery through end 3Q22 into 4Q22 - reflecting the physical tightness in exploitable supplies, as material supply side downgrades are realized, and consumer demand emerges after a hiatus. Investor flows post-holiday season will also be important to monitor.
Ben Shatil and Patrick Locke discuss the dollar outlook following this week’s CPI inflation print.
This podcast was recorded on 12 August 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4178532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Francis Diamond, J.P. Morgan’s UK rates strategist, and UK Economist Allan Monks discuss takeaways from the August BoE meeting, the outlook for policy rates and impacts on UK rate markets.
This podcast was recorded on Monday, 8th August 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4165373-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4171090-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Francis Diamond, J.P. Morgan’s UK rates strategist, and UK Economist Allan Monks discuss takeaways from the August BoE meeting, the outlook for policy rates and impacts on UK rate markets.
This podcast was recorded on Monday, 8th August 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4165373-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4171090-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Francis Diamond, J.P. Morgan’s UK rates strategist, and UK Economist Allan Monks discuss takeaways from the August BoE meeting, the outlook for policy rates and impacts on UK rate markets.
This podcast was recorded on Monday, 8th August 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4165373-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4171090-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the channels through which China’s slower growth can impact the different parts of EM fixed income: EM FX, rates and credit markets.
This podcast was recorded on August 4, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4169250-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan Chief US Economist Mike Feroli joins interest rate strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever to discuss take-aways from the July FOMC meeting, the outlook for policy rates, impact on the treasury curve, and outlook for Treasury’s August refunding.
Speakers Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy
Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research
Jay Barry, US Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/resehttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159127-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4159401-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Ben Shatil discuss the dollar and yen outlook following this week’s Fed meeting.
This podcast was recorded on 29 July 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4162663-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva and Ted Hall discuss the proposed Inflation Reduction Act and the recent sell-off in the commodities market. On Wednesday, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin unveiled the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022—a $739 billion revenue-and-spending deal aimed at lowering carbon emissions and curbing healthcare costs. If approved, this would be the biggest federal investment in clean energy ever made in the US. And, despite financial markets trying to price in a recession, crude oil prices have moved in the direction of our base case forecast. Crucially, neither our oil demand estimates nor our price forecasts established in mid-March envisioned a recession. While we do not believe the risk of recession is priced in the oil price yet, that risk is growing.
This podcast was recorded on Friday 29th July 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4158963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent signs of complacency emerging in EM markets, as the relief rally leaves negative real rates looking low compared to the risks ahead.
This podcast was recorded on July 28, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4160842-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara
This podcast was recorded on Jul 22, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4145611-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4147191-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4150862-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4145839-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4153834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke discuss the key issues to focus on for the euro, China and the upcoming Fed meeting.
This podcast was recorded on July 22, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4154377-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent signs of stress in EM fixed income markets and whether these point to a bottom for EM risk assets or are part of an ongoing period of macro headwinds.
This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4152980-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week will be an action-packed one for EUR/USD with the ECB, Italian politics and gas supplies from Russia all in focus. We unpack these issues and discuss implications relevant for rates and FX investors.
This podcast was recorded on July 18, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141167-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4147414-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4148303-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan Chief US Economist Mike Feroli joins interest rate strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever to discuss the pros & cons of a 100bp hike to the Fed funds target rate at the July meeting. They also discuss curve inversion and the current state of treasury market liquidity.
Speakers:
Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy
Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research
Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tracey Allen and Ruhani Aggarwal discuss the outlook for agri markets after the collapse in prices in June and July. The confluence of macro headwinds from decadal highs in the US dollar, rising recessionary risks and fears of a return to COVID lockdowns in China, to sharp losses across crude oil markets have continued to override ags markets fundamentals and associated weather-related production threats this week. Material progress towards mobilizing the grain and oilseeds stored at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports appears to have been made during discussions between military delegations from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations on Wednesday in Istanbul. This apparent agreement is not an indication of a normalization in Ukrainian export flows but certainly a step in the right direction for global food supplies.
Speakers Tracey Allen, Head of Agriculture Research, J.P. Morgan
Ruhani Aggarwal, Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan
This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4146561-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4145982-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Greg Fuzesi, Aditya Chordia and Meera Chandan from the J.P. Morgan economics, rates and FX team discuss the outlook for Eurozone in their baseline and stress scenarios.
Downside growth risks over 2H22 are building owing to elevated gas prices and risks to supply. The ECB would likely focus on high inflation at first and low growth later.
EUR/USD forecast has been marked down to 0.95 from parity. Enter long 5Y Germany vs. US and turn tactically underweight periphery via short 10Y Italy vs. Germany on expectation that the market would continue testing the ECB.
This podcast was recorded on 12th July 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141167-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141656-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4139679-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva discusses J.P. Morgan’s baseline view on global oil markets and associated risks. We expect Russian exports will adjust towards other buyers without a serious disruption to its production. This, combined with the 1.2 mbd monthly drawdown of global strategic petroleum reserves and demand beginning to falter amid record-high oil product prices are sufficient to prompt a fragile balance and stabilize the global oil price in the low $100s in 2H22 and high $90s in 2023. Macro risks are becoming more two-sided. A 3 mbd retaliatory reduction in Russian oil exports is a credible threat and if realized will drive Brent crude oil prices to roughly $190/bbl. On the other hand, the impact of substantially lower demand growth under recessionary scenarios would see Brent crude oil price averaging around $90/bbl under a mild recession and $78/bbl under a scenario of a more severe downturn.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on July 8, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141238-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara
Developments in Japan’s economy and markets, including inflation, the BoJ’s monetary policy, government bonds (JGB) and currency (JPY) markets are obviously unique and different from those in the rest of the world. In this podcast, we would like to share our latest views across asset classes.
This podcast was recorded on Jul 7, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4130528-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4132824-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4137092-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4134898-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4129712-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Anatoliy Shal, JPM’s Chief Russia Economist, to discuss the potential impact of the new set of goals set out by the G-7 to cut Moscow’s revenues. The G7 announced a potential cap on prices of Russian oil and an import ban of Russian gold. Given Russia’s strong fiscal position thanks to higher energy prices and lower imports in the wake of western sanctions, the country can cut up to 5 mbd of production without excessively hurting its economic interest, all the while driving global oil prices to stratospheric $380/bbl.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Anatoliy Shal, Chief Russia Economist
This podcast was recorded on July 1, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4135652-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan US interest rate strategists Srini Ramaswamy, Teresa Ho and Alex Roever are joined by economist Michael Feroli to discuss QT (quantitative tightening) and its impact on banks and money markets.
This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss the implications of Biden administration’s proposed federal gas tax holiday. As millions of Americans prepare for summertime driving, including over next month’s July Fourth holiday, the Biden administration continues to look for ways to ease record fuel prices. Cutting fuel taxes, changing blending requirements, and capping gasoline exports could each provide some temporary relief to US consumers, yet, until supply-side issues—namely, an acute shortage of refining capacity—are addressed, most measures intended to reduce the price of gasoline will instead likely encourage Americans to drive more, in turn leading to higher gasoline demand and yet higher gasoline prices. The reality is that, with demand stimulated and supply constrained, fuel prices won’t drop until demand does.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4127358-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4114639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this podcast we discuss our medium term views on Euro area inflation, its impact on ECB delivery. We also discuss our main trading themes on the German curve, intra-EMU spreads, money market/swap curve, swap spreads, and rates volatility.
Speakers Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rates Strategy
Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist
Francis Diamond, UK Gilt and European Inflation Strategist
Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4129745-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this episode of At Any Rate, we say goodbye to negative-yielding debt, which has declined rapidly to just $5.9trn from a peak of $17.2trn in Q1/2020, with Japan now accounting for 78% of the remaining stock. Structural forces pointing to higher real yields, greater macro volatility and faster moving business cycles. Much higher US inflation volatility could easily make inflation average 3-4% over the next decade. A traditional 60/40 equity-bond allocation by our estimates prices in ~5% pa return the next decade, up from 3% at the end of 2021, as the market repricing year-to-date has cheapened US bonds and equities, and raised our 10-year out expected returns by 2% pa relative to end-2021. We favor assets where income can rise more with inflation, and where asset prices fall less, favoring Health Care and Financials, EM FX, Commodities (ex-Gold) and market-neutral hedge funds. Commodity-linked assets provide an effective hedge against the risk of a persistent rise in inflation, including livestock, industrial metals, and energy futures with Energy stocks favored over the short run and Global Utility stocks over the long run.
Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research
Jan Loeys, Head of Long-term Strategy
Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy
Preetham Nanda, Global Index Research
Peter McCrory, US Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer, Tracey Allen and Ted Hall to discuss the outlook on global commodities. As conditions of acute scarcity persist across all commodities, world is entering the traditional peak demand season with inventories 19% below historical average. This lack of inventory buffer leaves the market vulnerable with outsized impact on prices amidst any shock to supply.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research
Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4123032-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan Economist Michael Feroli joins US Rates Strategists Jay Barry, Phoebe White and Alex Roever to discuss their thoughts on the June FOMC meeting.
This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Luis Oganes, Jonny Goulden and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the outlook for emerging markets for the second half of 2022.
This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss supply-demand dynamics in the global fuel market. Western refiners were already shutting down refining capacity before the COVID demand shock drove another 2 mbd of refining capacity closures over the past two years. Sanctions on Venezuela and now Russia have reduced effective capacity in Europe and the US even further. While Russia finds it difficult to find alternative markets for its products, China has cut fuel export quotas by over 50%. With demand set to pick up pace as US driving season kicks off and China comes out of lockdowns, fuel prices will continue to rise until they reach the point of demand destruction.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on June 10, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4114639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Tracey Allen to discuss the fundamental and price outlook for agricultural markets through 2022-23. The precarious situation of historically high food prices and risks of physical shortages of cereals and vegetable oils over the years ahead presents an immensely challenging outlook for agricultural supply chains and risk management. Historical episodes of food price inflation have typically been driven by supply side shocks, often from adverse weather. For agri markets, this time is different, and far more complex and likely longer to overcome-despite the aggressive selloff across markets through late May. Agri prices are expected to remain elevated through 2023 and likely beyond. Though, stymied investor risk appetite amid discussions of a humanitarian export corridor for Ukrainian food exports, downside global growth risks and hand to mouth consumer buying, has driven a downward revision in our price forecasts through 2022.
This podcast was recorded on June 3 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4110968-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan’s Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil join Alex Roever to discuss trading futures in a low liquidity environment.
This podcast was recorded on June 1, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss the outlook for platinum and palladium prices after a volatile start to the year. Prices of both metals surged into early March on intensifying concerns around Russian supply. Yet this risk premium has sharply eroded in the last two months as fundamental concerns quickly shifted from lost supply to disintegrating demand as disruptions have once again snarled automotive supply chains. While trimming near-term forecasts to account for the diminished S&D fundamentals, a stabilizing rebound in light vehicle production as well as a recovery in industrial activity in China should support prices for both metals in the coming quarters. Though, over the medium-term, PGM prices look set to diverge with platinum prices likely to see further gains on tightening fundamentals while palladium faces a number of stiff structural headwinds.
This podcast was recorded on 27 May 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4104253-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent bear market bounce in EM local markets and how to assess moves on EM local bonds.
This podcast was recorded on May 26 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4105618-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss gasoline market dynamics. The national average US retail gasoline price topped $4.50 a gallon this week for the first time. With expectations of strong driving demand—traditionally, the US summer driving season starts on Memorial Day, which lands this year on May 30, and lasts until Labor Day in early September. Typically, refiners produce more gasoline ahead of the summer road-trip season, building up inventories. But this year, since mid-April, US gasoline inventories have fallen counter seasonally and sit at the lowest seasonal levels since 2019. A major driver in these counter-seasonal draws in gasoline is higher-than-normal exports that are unlikely to persist at current prices.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on May 20, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4096782-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the positioning and flow supports or risks to EM fixed income assets, as market volatility persists.
This podcast was recorded on 20 May 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4099123-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A stablecoin has become unstable. US and global funding markets and regulators are watching closely for signs of contagion. J.P. Morgan’s Teresa Ho joins Alex Roever to discuss their note on recent developments.
Speakers Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy
Teresa Ho Gentile, US Fixed Income Strategy
This podcast was recorded on May 13, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4091899-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva discusses the pivot point the global economy is at, necessitating a realignment in the US trade objective from free to "free but secure.” The new plurilateral trade order would realign commodities supply chains among like-minded countries (friend-shoring) to ensure the availability, affordability, security, and sustainability of natural resources. In addition to significantly higher costs of commodities production and supply chain redundancies, the management of strategic and commercial inventories will also have to change, replacing the just-in-time supply chain with just-in-case.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on May 13, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4075607-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tracey Allen discusses Indonesia’s ban on exports of some edible oils that commenced yesterday. The ban is an attempt to manage domestic food price inflation and food security. Wider challenges to the global agricultural supply side response will also be discussed.
This podcast was recorded on 29 April 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4068836-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4070164-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Peter DeGroot is joined by Alex Roever to discuss our updated US rates strategy view. Ye Tian and Sabrina Spatz also join to discuss the worst muni 1Q performance on record, as well as muni sectors including airports and state and local governments.
Speakers:
Peter DeGroot, Head of Municipal Research & Strategy
Alex Roever, Head of US Rates Strategy
Ye Tian, Municipal Research & Strategy
Sabrina Spatz, Municipal Research & Strategy
This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the recent market weakness in EM currencies and their relationship to CNY, commodities and the broader dollar.
This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4075554-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Luis Oganes, Jessica Murray and Lydia Harvey discuss our second survey of dedicated EM investors that focused on how climate is incorporated into EM sovereign ESG strategies. Survey results reveal that human induced climate change is one of the top three ESG related concerns of EM fixed income investors, who communicated that generating positive real-world climate impact was an important consideration in their ESG strategies, particularly as EM economies face significant transition and physical climate risks.
This podcast was recorded on 26/04/22.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4061324-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The May FOMC meeting is fast approaching. Markets have priced in a 50bp hike to the Fed funds rate, and nearly 200bp more for the balance of 2022. US Rates strategist Alex Roever is joined by Economist Mike Feroli and Government strategists Jay Barry and Phoebe White to discuss rates, yield curves and inflation.
This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss why the recent rise in US natural gas price has resulted in little change in the supply and demand balance at the current time. With US natural gas price now above $7/MMBtu and an end-October storage trajectory of 3.4 Tcf, traditional levers of supply increase and demand destruction that would manifest at this price level have been missing. This is particularly true in terms of demand destruction as the US coal balance now appears tighter than the US natural gas balance.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4068518-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss the latest news across base and precious metals. European smelter curtailments and dwindling available LME inventories of zinc has sparked supply security fears in yet another industrial metal. How concerned should industrial consumers be? Moreover, the pair discuss the impact of the LPPM’s suspension of Russia’s two PGM refineries and whether or not gold will ever trade on real-yield fundamentals again.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research
This podcast was recorded on April 14. 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4057950-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4061524-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4060660-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi and Ted Hall to discuss the latest critical announcements in the energy sector. On the one hand, European intentions are in place to diversify nearly 80% of Russian oil and gas imports, while the EU ban on coal offers a new twist to the Russian energy saga as coal remains a vital balancing mechanism for the European energy system. On the other hand, the IEA further SPR releases ease short term balance but looking forward, global producers will likely need to ramp up investment to fill the Russia-sized supply gap and restock IEA strategic reserves.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research
Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research
This podcast was recorded on April 8, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4047856-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4054322-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4055747-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tracey Allen discusses the unprecedented supply side uncertainty across global grain markets that continues to fuel heightened volatility and to weigh on liquidity across exchanges. On the consumption side, the durability of grain and oilseed demand at current elevated price levels is being questioned, not least with rising COVID lockdowns across China; however, historical elasticity relationships suggest there is limited room for destruction of wheat demand.
This podcast was recorded on 31 March 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4046356-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4040956-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4036864-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4029378-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the implications for EM fixed income markets of the US yield curve inverting and what this means for EM’s cyclical investment environment.
This podcast was recorded on March 31, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4049035-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan and Ben Shatil from FX strategy discuss recent drivers of USD/JPY and make the case for a still-bullish stance in the pair. The overall outlook for FX markets is also discussed, with the main themes being higher US yields, softer euro bloc growth and higher commodity prices.
This podcast was recorded on 30th March 2022
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4043674-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4047356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Our annual report on challenges to achieving gender parity takes stock on scarring that will outlast the pandemic. Female labor force participation declined at historic rates during the 2020 “She-cession”, as women bore disproportionate responsibility for childcare at all income levels, and while it is inching back in the US, it remains 1.2% below February 2020 levels. Women in EM lag DM by an even wider margin across all metrics. In the meantime, gender-sensitive emergency measures are being rolled back, and if no action is taken to institutionalize policies, the impact to global GDP growth in 2030 could be at least $1trn. Tight labor market conditions have contributed to a decline in the unadjusted gender pay gap in the US (16.9% in 2021), EU (14.1%) and UK (12.4%). However, companies with women at the top were better poised to weather the crisis. Female board representation for the Russell 3000 has reached 25%, but meaningful gains at the C-Suite were harder to achieve.
Speakers Trang Nguyen, Head of EM Sovereign Strategy
Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research
Fiona Greig, Co-Head of the J.P. Morgan Chase Institute
Amy Ho, Strategic Research
Stella Y. Xu, Executive Director, Strategic Research
This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4019923-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss the state of the securitized products market after meaningful repricing in Q1 2022. We revise spread targets, issuance across all products and touch on home price affordability challenges.
Speakers John Sim, Securitized Products Research
Nick Maciunas, Securitized Products Research
Kaustub Samant, Securitized Products Research
Chong Sin, Securitized Products Research
Amy Sze, Securitized Products Research
This podcast was recorded on March 22, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the lessons for the broader EM fixed income markets after a month of the Russia/Ukraine war which has exacerbated existing trends but also highlighted vulnerabilities for some.
This podcast was recorded on March 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4042403-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
One week ago the Fed began raising interest rates, signaling a more significant tightening path than previously anticipated, and yet US credit markets rallied strongly afterwards. In this discussion we review the performance and trends before and after the Fed meeting for the Investment Grade, High Yield, Leveraged Loan and CLO markets. There has been a strong divergence in returns, fund flows and bond issuance across these markets YTD which we discuss. Our outlook for returns from now until year-end is positive across all four markets, with High Yield expected to lead and CLOs lag. Eric Beinstein (Head of US Credit Strategy) moderates the discussion, with Nelson Jantzen (High Yield and Leverage Loan Strategy), Rishad Ahluwalia (CLO Strategy) and Nathaniel Rosenbaum (High Grade Credit Strategy).
Speakers Eric Beinstein, Head of US Credit Strategy
Nathaniel Rosenbaum, High Grade Credit Strategy
Nelson Jantzen, US High Yield & Leveraged Loan Strategy
Rishad Ahluwalia, Securitized Products Research
This podcast was recorded on March 23, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya from FX Strategy discuss the recent China and Fed developments and implications for the FX macro landscape.
This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4037742-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi to discuss Europe’s challenges in reducing its energy reliance on Russia. While Europe will, over time, limit energy imports from Russia, finding alternative sources immediately won’t be easy. However, Europe is back in the market buying Russian oil and the European natural gas market is currently in a far better position fundamentally than many market participants would have expected at the start of the year.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research
This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4035097-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4034196-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the bewildering range of significant factors currently driving EM fixed income markets.
This podcast was recorded on March 17, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4036248-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The FOMC starts its journey back to “normal”: At its March 16 meeting, the FOMC took the first steps in unwinding pandemic era accommodation – raising policy rates 25bp, and signaling many more will follow. Economist Michael Feroli and US rates strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever discuss the likely path ahead.
This podcast was recorded on March 16, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4035136-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4035326-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Ongoing geopolitical risk and the onset of sanctions have pushed Libor and other funding metrics to stressed levels. Strategists Alex Roever and Teresa Ho provide a closer look on the messaging coming from these metrics and markets.
This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4031059-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4031119-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
European Rates Strategists Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the implications of the recent ECB meeting. The more hawkish ECB delivery was likely prompted by increased inflation concerns and elevated measures of inflation expectations, following the recent spike in energy prices. We discuss ECB tapering in the context of the risks around the growth uncertainty. The policy decision weakens the ECB safety net as asset purchased are tapered to end in Q3, amidst ongoing macro/geopolitical uncertainty and higher supply going forward. We also briefly discuss implications for the upcoming BoE meeting.
Speakers Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist Francis Diamond, UK Gilt and European Inflation Strategist Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4030680-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the risks for EM markets of a more stagflationary global environment, resulting from the Russia/Ukraine war.
This podcast was recorded on March 10, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4029173-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
TIPS Strategist Phoebe White and US Economist Peter McCrory discuss the outlook for US inflation. Given a shift toward more inertial categories of inflation and the escalating conflict in Ukraine, we now expect higher inflation throughout the remainder of this year and into next. For now, we still look for the Fed to hike 25bp per meeting, beginning next week. We discuss how US inflation markets have reacted to the surge commodities prices. Inflation risk premium has risen along the curve, and market-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations have risen to 7-year highs.
This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4022518-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4024037-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss the impact of recent geopolitical developments on FX markets. The euro bloc is the most vulnerable, while the dollar and commodity currencies are more insulated. We are recommending shorts in EUR, GBP and SEK vs. longs in USD, CHF and G10 petro FX. Deterioration in risk sentiment would usually be more JPY-supportive, but higher energy prices are an offset.
We also discuss the main take-aways from our FX models. The growth and market regimes have turned outright defensive, and risks to the dollar are skewed asymmetrically stronger. Models were already short EUR to begin with, but magnitude of shorts have increased on growth revisions.
Speakers Paul Meggyesi, Global FX Strategy
Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy
This was recorded on March 7, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Gregory Shearer, and Tracey Allen to discuss the current state of commodities markets after an exceptionally volatile week given the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict. The team explores the disruption in export volumes, alternative supplies, and demand rationing, as well as potential upside price scenarios if Russian exports are materially disrupted in the coming weeks and months.
Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research
This podcast was recorded on March 4, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the impact of the major escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict for Emerging Market assets.
This podcast was recorded on February 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4014479-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan research analysts (Francis Diamond and Allan Monks) discuss their thoughts on BoE QT and in particular potential gilt asset sales. They discuss the policy drivers and possible size of QT sales as well as thoughts around implications for UK rate markets
This podcast was recorded on 24 February 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4013981-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Tracey Allen to introduce and discuss our commodities inventory monitor. Global commodity inventories have contracted sharply over the past six months. While tradeable commodity stocks are critically low, it is important to acknowledge the abundance of available inventories in leading commodity consumer and importer China, to draw upon as required, which influences global import demand.
This podcast was recorded on 18 February 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4008477-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the outlook for EM local yield curves in the face of relentless flattening pressures and a withdrawal of global monetary accommodation. In particular, some yield curves are very flat and inverted even at the short ends, raising questions of whether this is warranted.
This podcast was recorded on February 17, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4007102-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Paul Meggyesi and Meera Chandan from JPM FX Strategy discuss the relevance of the ECB’s hawkish pivot and other central bank development for the foreign exchange markets.
This podcast was recorded 14 February 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4001150-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss our views on Riksbank and Norges bank; how long can the Riksbank resist hikes while how many hikes will the Norges bank deliver this year. We also discuss how our central bank and global views translates in SEK and NOK currency and interest rate markets.
This podcast was recorded February 14, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3999144-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3999236-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4001150-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Gregory Shearer to discuss how two strong macroeconomic data prints this week (US CPI and China’s credit growth) influence our views across base and precious metals prices.
This podcast was recorded on February 11, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
2021 was characterized by strong catalysts for climate change and the energy crunch has highlighted the urgency to accelerate progress. In this episode, Joyce Chang (Chair of Global Research) presents the latest J.P. Morgan Perspectives report on ESG 2022: Energy Crunch Challenges Net Zero Transition, Gloria Kim (Head of Index Research and co-lead for ESG Research) shares the latest developments on ESG integration into indices, Stella Y. Xu (Strategic Research) discusses the cost of decarbonization and climate innovation, and Bill Peterson (Equity Research) talks about the future of electric vehicles.
Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research
Gloria Kim, Global Index Research
Stella Y. Xu, Strategic Research
Bill Peterson, Transportation and Fuel Transformation
This podcast was recorded on Feb 4, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952574-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3986461-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast: Fabio Bassi, Aditya Chordia, Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta. ECB took a decisive shift in its reaction function this week opening the door to a 2022 policy rate lift-off. OIS market is now pricing depo rates to be around 0% by the end of this year. The BoE has now hiked consecutively in December and February and we expect them to hike again in March with more to come in 2022. In this podcast, we discuss our views on the Euro area and UK interest rate markets.
This podcast was recorded on February 4, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi and Ted Hall to discuss the role of US supply in the global oil and natural gas markets. Demand in both the global oil and natural gas markets has performed exceptionally and, after more than a year of disciplined spending and restrained production growth, the US oil and gas upstream community appears to be poised for a ramp up in activity and supply. The Permian Basin plays a key role in this acceleration, but rampant growth in the region is not a foregone conclusion. The oil and natural gas supply dynamics are far more complicated in today’s world of decarbonization than they were in 2018.
This podcast was recorded on February 4, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3989057-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the curious case of Emerging Market credit underperformance versus local markets. This has occurred despite market focus on higher US rates which is typically worse for local markets. They discuss whether this is just early 2022 market noise or whether there is more signal.
This podcast was recorded on 03 February 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3991747-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Gregory Shearer, and Tracey Allen to discuss Russia's influence on the commodities complex. With Russia/Ukraine tensions on the rise, an escalation and/or potential disruption in exports is materially bullish commodities. Natural gas, oil, aluminum, PGMs, wheat and corn look to be the most exposed.
This podcast was recorded on 28 January 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3978982-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The Fed remains the key driver for EM markets in early 2022 but EM currencies have underreacted to US rates repricing, with the higher carry now available on EM FX cited as a potential buffer. We discuss whether EM FX carry is a strong enough factor to cushion the asset class from the historical experience of EM currency weakness around the start of Fed hiking cycles.
This podcast was recorded on January 27, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3984672-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
There were no big surprises at the January FOMC meeting, but Powell’s remarks after the meeting were arguably the most hawkish he’s made as Fed Chair. J.P. Morgan Economist Mike Feroli and US Rates Strategy team breakdown the meeting and highlight the expected policy moves to come.
This podcast was recorded on January 27, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3983276-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3983345-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Expectations that the Fed will soon begin to normalize monetary policy have left bond market participants with many questions. J.P. Morgan’s Alex Roever explores some of these with economist Michael Feroli, and strategists Teresa Ho (money markets), Jay Barry (treasuries) and Nick Maciunas (agency MBS).
This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3966322-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3971185-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
John Sim Is joined by Nick Maciunas and Kaustub Samant from the Securitized Products team to discuss the FHFA recent changes to loan level pricing for jumbo and second home loans deliverable to the GSEs. We touch on the implications for mortgage rates, prepayments, home prices, affordable lending and private-label originations.
This podcast was recorded on January 12, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3963683-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the impact on the US rates market. The Fed made major changes to its policy statement, and the latest SEP indicate an early policy liftoff and a faster pace of hikes in 2022 and 2023. This largely aligns with our forecast that the Fed will liftoff in June and then tighten at a quarterly pace thereafter. In the aftermath of this meeting, front-end Treasury yields declined and the curve broadly steepened. We discuss the impact of valuations, positioning, and liquidity on the rates markets in the aftermath of the Fed meeting
This podcast was recorded on December 16, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952359-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952581-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
John Sim Is joined by Nick Maciunas, Kaustub Samant and Chong Sin from the Securitized Products team to discuss US home prices, looking at both single-family and multi-family buy / rent options. We take into consideration the lack of housing supply, affordability and mortgage rates. We also discuss potential property price increases in commercial real estate.
This podcast was recorded on December 8, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931024-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Alex Roever is joined by Eric Beinstein and Nelson Jantzen to discuss the outlook for High Grade and High Yield corporate credit markets in 2022. Rising UST yields, improving credit fundamentals, and less net supply should lead to modestly tighter spreads. We also see the environment sustaining tight spreads in leveraged credit, especially for floating-rate loans.
This podcast was recorded on December 1, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3930907-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3928409-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Alex Roever is joined by Srini Ramaswamy, Fabio Bassi, and Jay Barry to discuss the outlook for US and developed market interest rates in 2022. They discuss the relative differences in central bank reaction functions and the resulting impact on yields. Notably, the ECB is set to further expand its balance sheet expansion in 2022, but we forecast 10-year bund yields rising to -15bp and the curve steepening by 2Q22. The BoE is likely to raise rates next month and twice in 2022, pushing 10-year gilt yields to 1.15% by mid-year. We envision above-trend growth and a Fed on the move pushing 10-year yields to 2% by mid-2022. Fed tapering and bank leverage constraints will likely lead to slower deposit growth and demand for Treasuries in 2022. We envision volatility rising in 2022, supported by an active Fed and rising longer-term rates.
This podcast was recorded on November 30, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931469-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3931940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcomes of the November FOMC meeting and Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement and the impact on the US rates market. The Fed delivered a tapering announcement, as expected, and is likely to complete its asset purchases by mid-2022 much quicker than the 2013-2014 timeline. Moreover, the Fed changed its description on the outlook for inflation, and the onus is on labor supply is critical to thinking about the outlook for inflation and policy rates in 2022. Front-end yields declined this week and priced a more dovish path for Fed policy in 2022, but driven more by global dynamics than the FOMC Finally, the Fed’s quick taper has been accompanied by large cuts to Treasury auctions sizes, with more likely to come in 2022. This should allow the T-bill share of debt to stabilize.
This podcast was recorded on November 4, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910586-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3910596-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3911077-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In our latest podcast, analysts Alex Roever and Jay Barry discuss the outcome of the September FOMC meeting and the attendant impact on the rates markets. They delve how the outcome was more hawkish than expected, as the Fed is likely to complete its asset purchases earlier than expected They discuss the impact on the yield curve and the explore the path for the curve going forward. They also discuss the implications of the Fed increasing the counterparty limit on the Overnight RRP facility, and review latest developments on the debt ceiling debate.
This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3868711-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3869204-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In our latest podcast, analysts Alex Roever and Jay Barry discuss the developments in rates markets as summer transitions to fall. They delve into what the current level of Treasury yields imply for the growth outlook over the next year, examine investor positioning, and discuss the latest developments on debt ceiling negotiations.
This podcast was recorded on September 13, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3859927-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jan Loeys, Joshua Younger, and Colin Paiva discuss the outlook for fixed income returns over the coming decades and the role of bonds in asset allocation.
This podcast was recorded on July 30, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3797098-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Any future for bonds in 60/40?, August 3, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Jay Barry, Phoebe White, Teresa Ho, and Josh Younger discuss the outlook for rates and related sectors in the second half of 2021.
This podcast was recorded on June 29, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3785889-0 for more information; please visitwww.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “The outlook for US rates in 2H21, June 29, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Josh Younger, Jay Barry, Eric Beinstein, and Phoebe White discuss recent trends in demand at the long end of the curve for Treasuries, swaps and corporate bonds.
This podcast was recorded on April 21, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3711431-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Demographic duration demand in the long end, April 21, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Kabir Caprihan, Mike Feroli, Jay Barry, Josh Younger, and Teresa Ho discuss the upcoming expiration of the carve-out of reserves and Treasuries from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio, and the implications for rates and credit markets under various scenarios.
This podcast was recorded on March 12 and 15, 2021. A portion of this episode is excerpted from a conference call for institutional clients of J.P. Morgan held on March 12, 2021; clients can access a replay of the full call at www.jpmm.com/research/content/CFP-PC-5303-0.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3675636-0 more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Podcast: Still Waiting on SLR: March 12, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Mike Feroli, Jay Barry, and Teresa Ho discuss the new stimulus bill in Congress and its implication for the economy, bond markets, and the US money markets.
This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3671430-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Overstimulated? The Biden stimulus and bond markets, March 8, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss how larger projected fiscal stimulus is likely to impact the outlook for Treasury yields, TIPS breakevens, and Treasury issuance trends.
This podcast was recorded on February 22, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports atwww.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3654261-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3650752-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “How would larger fiscal stimulus impact Treasuries and TIPS?, February 22, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Matt Jozoff, Josh Younger and Nick Maciunas discuss the risk that rising rates trigger a mortgage convexity event which could accelerate a sell-off on bonds.
This podcast was recorded on February 12, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3647898-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “As yields rise, are we headed for a convexity event?, February 12, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever and Josh Younger discuss leverage constraints, the interaction between Holding Companies and their bank subsidiaries, and the implications for swap spreads.
This podcast was recorded on February 5, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3636518-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “How important are bank-level SLR carve-outs to swap spreads?: February 5, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jay Barry, Teresa Ho and Phoebe White discuss everything we learned from Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and the implications for Treasuries and the money markets.
This podcast was recorded on February 3, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3635246-0 andwww.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3630182-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Making sense of the February refunding, February 3, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever and Josh Younger discuss the implications for Treasury markets of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio and the pending sunset of temporary regulatory relief.
This podcast was recorded on January 15, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3613354-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “The coming expiry of SLR carve-outs, January 15, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss the implications of the recent Georgia runoff Senate elections on rates markets and our forecasts.
This podcast was recorded on January 11, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3607432-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Georgia elections and the outlook for rates markets, January 11, 2021.” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Josh Younger and Henry St John discuss the upcoming Big Bang transition to SOFR discounting for cleared swaps, with a focus on key developments this week, as well as an overview of some of the mechanics involved with the transition process.
This podcast was recorded on September 15, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3494132-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Preparing for the Big Bang transition to SOFR discounting: 15 September 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Matt Jozoff, Alex Roever, and Jay Barry discuss the Fed’s balance sheet and securities holdings, and evaluate the case for tapering the pace of securities purchases.
This podcast was recorded on September 8, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view related material at www.jpmm.com/#research.rates.us for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Have Fed bond purchases gone too far?: September 8, 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Josh Younger, Henry St John, Khagendra Gupta, Ladislav Jankovic, Bram Kaplan, and Pavan Talreja provide a global cross-asset perspective on volatility risk and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
This podcast was recorded on September 2, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3482158-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “A cross asset perspective on volatility risk and the U.S. Presidential Election: 2 September 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss Treasury's August refunding announcement and the outlook for Treasury issuance going forward.
This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3454904-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “7-10 split: August refunding review.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Phoebe White and Dan Silver discuss the June CPI report released this week, their outlook for US inflation over the medium term, and implications for various inflation hedging strategies.
This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3428163-0 0 andwww.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3425399-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Core CPI moves past its weak streak.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever and Jay Barry discuss the outlook for U.S. Treasury markets in the second half of 2020.
This podcast was recorded on June 23, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3407235-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Outlook for US Treasuries, 2H20.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Josh Younger, Mika Inkinen and Henry St John discuss cryptocurrency price action amidst recent market volatility, contrast liquidity conditions with major asset classes, and discuss various considerations for intrinsic value.
This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3399002-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Cryptocurrency takes its first stress test: June 17, 2020” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After a V-shaped recovery in markets, growth is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of the year, but the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is far from complete. Joe Lupton, from Global Economic Research at J.P. Morgan and Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research at J.P. Morgan discuss the outlook for financial markets and the economy in the second half of 2020. This podcast was recorded on June 18, 2020.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read J.P. Morgan research reports related to its contents for more information, including important disclosures. ©2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Leading up to the release of the U.S. jobs report for May, J.P. Morgan economists expected another month with substantial job losses and a jump in the unemployment rate. However, the May data looked more favorable than expectations. In this conversation, Jesse Edgerton and Dan Silver from J.P. Morgan U.S. Economic Research discuss the results, key indicators and what lies ahead. This podcast was recorded on June 5, 2020.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read J.P. Morgan research reports related to its contents for more information, including important disclosures. © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Jay Barry, Josh Younger and Henry St John discuss the outlook for more deeply negative swap spreads off the back of last week’s TBAC refunding announcement, and the move last week by the Fed funds futures market towards pricing negative rates.
This podcast was recorded on May 12, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3364041-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Negative Feds funds futures and more negative swap spreads: May 12th 2020” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Mike Feroli and Dan Silver from J.P. Morgan U.S. Economic Research highlight the key takeaways from the U.S. jobs report, released on May 8, 2020, and share perspectives on what the results mean for the future. This podcast was recorded on May 8, 2020.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read J.P. Morgan research reports related to its contents for more information, including important disclosures. © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Mike Feroli, Jay Barry, and Phoebe White discuss takeaways from the April FOMC meeting and compare the Fed's actions during the COVID-19 crisis with steps taken in WWII.
This podcast was recorded on May 4, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3349352-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “QE and YCC in wars, pandemics, and crashes, May 4 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, part of a series focused on U.S. fixed income markets, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Josh Younger and Henry St John discuss the Fed’s recent temporary supervisory changes to SLR, the reason for it, and its implications for derivatives markets.
This podcast was recorded on April 6, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view related material at http://www.jpmm.com/#research.rates.us for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Liquidity or bust: April 6 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, part of a series focused on U.S. fixed income markets, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Mike Feroli, Alex Roever, Jay Barry, Josh Younger and Phoebe White discuss the rapid and aggressive responses we’ve seen from the Fed in an attempt to limit the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and ensure that markets continue to function.
This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view related material at http://www.jpmm.com/#research.rates.us for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Decoding the Fed's crisis response: March 25 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
As COVID-19 continues to spread, the global impact to the economy also continues to evolve at an unprecedented speed. J.P. Morgan Research examines what lies ahead for the markets as we head into a global recession, the series of policy responses around the globe and which sectors will be hit the hardest. This podcast was recorded on March 19, 2020.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read the related report at https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/coronavirus-impact for more information including important disclosures. © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, part of a series focused on U.S. fixed income markets, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Jay Barry, Josh Younger, Brian Ye, and Henry St John discuss their thoughts on recent market and other near-term considerations.
This podcast was recorded on March 11, 2020. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view related material at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3297758-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Thoughts on volatile fixed income markets: March 12th 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, Bruce Kasman, Malcolm Barr, Greg Fuzesi, and Allan Monks discuss Western European growth and this week’s policy response to the COVID-19 crisis. This podcast was recorded on March 12, 2020. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read related reports at www.jpmm.com/#research.economics for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Western Europe: The shock and the policy response.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, part of a series focused on U.S. fixed income markets, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Matt Jozoff, Alex Roever, Eric Beinstein, Brian Ye, Jay Barry, and Phoebe White discuss the market volatility observed over recent days in response to the spread of COVID-19 outside of China.
Podcast “U.S. Fixed Income: Feeding the Convexity Beast” – https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/u-s-fixed-income-feeding-the-convexity-beast/id1481423053?i=1000467345569
This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2020. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can read related reports at www.jpmm.com/#research.rates.us for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional fixed income clients with the title “Views Across Fixed Income Amid COVID-19 Volatility, March 3, 2020.” © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, part of a series focused on U.S. fixed income markets, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Matt Jozoff, Josh Younger, and Munier Salem discuss bank convexity hedging and the recent moves in interest rate markets.
This podcast was recorded on March 2, 2020. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional fixed income clients can read the related report atwww.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3283600-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional fixed income clients with the title “The Rates Rally: Feeding the Beast, March 2, 2020.” ©2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, part of a series focused on U.S. fixed income markets, J.P. Morgan Research analysts Alex Roever, Josh Younger, and Phoebe White discuss the implications of the impending decline in the stock of Treasury bills and the policy proposals recently discussed by Fed Governor Randal Quarles for the U.S. funding markets.
This podcast was recorded on February 14, 2020. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional fixed-income clients can read the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3266153-0 for more information. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. ©2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this conversation, the first in a series focused on U.S. fixed income markets, J.P. Morgan Research analysts discuss recent developments regarding the Fed’s balance sheet, the tools the Fed has been using to inject liquidity into the system, and the implications for US funding markets.
This podcast was recorded on January 21, 2020.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Clients can read the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3233948-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Healthcare remains a key issue for voters ahead of the 2020 elections, with drug pricing reform, patient affordability and the changing role of the consumer as major themes for both the U.S. pharmaceutical industry and the 2020 presidential candidates. J.P. Morgan Research explores the outlook for the industry in 2020 ahead of the election and beyond. This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2019.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read the related report at https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/health-care-2020-election for more information including important disclosures. © 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Food is our most essential commodity and a huge growth market. Lifestyles and diets are changing prompting manufacturers from Kellogg to Kraft-Heinz to experiment with new cultivation techniques and ingredients. At the same time, consumers want it all: Taste, convenience, low cost and, increasingly, the knowledge that their food is sustainable. These trends are leading to exciting new markets. There are challenges too with global population growth, diminishing natural resources and climate change all threatening food supply. In this podcast, J.P. Morgan Research examines the trends shaping the future of our food.This podcast was recorded on September 30, 2019.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read the related report at https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/global-food-security for more information including important disclosures.© 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Gone are the simple days of cleanse, tone and moisturize. The world’s largest beauty companies including Estée Lauder, L'Oréal, and Procter & Gamble are all embracing the latest emerging technologies, from artificial intelligence to augmented reality, to give customers a more personalized, tailor-made approach to beauty. In this report, J.P. Morgan Research takes a look at how technology is helping to drive growth and shape the future of the beauty industry.This podcast was recorded on July 17, 2019.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read the related report at https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/beauty-industry for more information including important disclosures.© 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.