SHJ Wealth Advisors: Recent Episodes
SHJ Wealth Advisors
P 500 Net Profit Margin expected to be 15.7% in Q2 2026 •U.S. GDP growth rate at 1.5% in Q1
P 500, and potential implications for investors. New home inventory has climbed steadily back up to nearly 500,000 units, marking a significant recovery from the historic lows seen a decade ago. Are we finally seeing enough increase in supply to help ease buyer competition, or is inventory still missing the mark? U.S. spending on data center construction has skyrocketed, officially outpacing traditional office and healthcare building markets. Where does this measure alongside educational, and transportation buildings? Meanwhile, PCE inflation measures have cooled dramatically from their historic peaks, settling into a much steadier range heading into mid-2026. Just how long can we expect this balanced inflation environment to last? Federal spending continues to outpace government receipts, maintaining a wide deficit gap even as revenues steadily climb. What could it take to close the distance between incoming tax dollars and national outlays? On the global front, average daily foreign exchange trading volume has climbed past 9.5 trillion dollars, jumping more than a quarter since 2025. What is driving this massive expansion in global currency trading? Aramco has cut its main oil pricing differential to its lowest point since 2020. What could this change in pricing mean for global energy markets and consumer costs ahead? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Headline CPI at 3.5%•Crude Oil price at $81.22 per barrel•30-year mortgage at 6.55%
This week on Inside the Economy, we address what the future may hold for the economy following a period of strong market performance. Strong corporate earnings have helped drive the markets, but new money entering the markets has also played an important role. Where is some of that money being invested? Real disposable income has recently turned negative following a surge in inflation. What short term event caused that increase in inflation? Meanwhile, the personal savings rate has leveled off at 2 percent, which is more consistent with historical norms. What do consumer debt levels look like, including credit card balances and mortgage delinquencies? The mortgage backed securities (MBS) market is currently showing a current coupon MBS yield of 5.3 percent. Since the start of the Iran conflict, yields have moved higher, reflecting reduced market expectations for near-term rate cuts. Is the spread between mortgage backed securities and Treasuries tightening or widening? Finally, at the beginning of the Iran conflict, crude oil prices surged on concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could close. Where do oil prices stand today, and did the increase have any impact on consumers' travel plans? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•3 Month T. Bill at 3.85%•10-year Bond at 4.48%•Spot Gold price at $4,200
This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the shifting dynamics of consumer spending, housing, capital markets, and global trade. Data shows that retail and gasoline spending have surged to become major drivers of year-over-year spending growth, pushing total monthly growth toward the 6% mark in early 2026 alongside steady services spending. Where would our economic growth stand without these two volatile categories? Meanwhile, this broader economic resilience is spilling into the housing market, where falling mortgage rates and moderating prices have propelled existing home sales to their fastest pace of the year. This raises a critical question for hopeful buyers and investors alike: is this renewed demand about to send median home prices soaring out of reach once again, or can the market maintain its delicate balance? On the capital markets front, net U.S. equity issuance is projected to experience a notable surge throughout the remainder of the year, rising at its fastest pace since at least 1999. While headline-grabbing mega-IPOs like SpaceX are fueling this supply shock, what other massive public debuts are waiting in the wings to reshape investor portfolios? Finally, a historic milestone has been reached in the energy sector, where solar power officially surpassed coal in the U.S. electricity generation mix for the very first time. This monumental shift leaves energy investors with one pressing question: is this the permanent twilight of coal's dominance, or could seasonal grid demands trigger a short-term comeback? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways:•Unemployment remains at 4.3%•Crude Oil dipped below $73.79 per barrel•CPI Core at 2.9% (YoY)
This week on Inside the Economy, we examine jobs and spending, inflation, and economies outside the United States. Since 2020, hiring demand has increased across the South and in parts of the country such as Idaho, while many Western states have experienced a decline. At the same time, new job creation remains strong. Are there any potential warning signs or anomalies behind the recent uptick in new jobs, or does the data point to continued strength? Inflation has also ticked higher in recent months, driven in part by conflict in the Middle East. Additional pressure has come from rising U.S. beef prices, as drought conditions and shrinking cattle herds continue to constrain supply. What other areas of inflation are being affected by drought conditions? Finally, the world’s three largest LNG exporters, the United States, Australia, and Qatar, account for a combined 252 million tons of exports. How could the global LNG landscape change as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and which countries may emerge as future players? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Unemployment at 4.3%•Money-Market Fund Assets reach $8.8 Trillion as of May 28th •PCE Core CPI at 3.3% (YoY)
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore inflation, interest rates, Venezuela and other trading partners. U.S. inflation accelerated in April, likely driven by continued increases in gasoline prices, groceries, rent, airfare, and other everyday expenses. As inflation pressures persist, small businesses may feel a greater financial strain than larger corporations. New data highlights which states have the highest proportion of employees working for small businesses — where does Colorado rank on the list? Moving onto bond yields, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have fluctuated over the years alongside changing Federal Reserve leadership and evolving economic conditions. New data shows that AI hyperscalers have been rapidly increasing debt issuance to finance the accelerating expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, with 2026 bond sales already exceeding total issuance for all of 2025. Riskier areas of the bond market have recently outperformed, with CCC-rated junk bonds leading year-to-date gains. Could this be a sign of growing investor confidence or a warning that markets may be taking on more risk than they realize? Lastly, Venezuelan dollar bonds have staged a significant rally after years of distress, with prices climbing sharply as investor optimism and geopolitical developments improve sentiment toward the country’s debt market. The question now is, will this momentum continue moving forward? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways:-Crude oil at $93.88 per barrel-30-year Mortgage rate at 6.51%-Headline CPI at 3.8% (YoY)
P 500 earnings growth has been trending in a positive direction, with first quarter estimates reaching 27 percent. Interestingly, companies have also increased stock buybacks this year. Which company has announced $100 billion in share repurchases? Lastly, world oil inventories are falling at a record pace amid the Iran war. While the United States is less dependent on Iranian oil, which countries are most affected? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•U.S. GDP growth rate at 2.0% in Q1•30-year Mortgage rate at 6.37%•PCE Core CPI at 3.2% (YoY)
This week on Inside the Economy, we assess the cost of living, impact from the Iran conflict, and global markets including global trade. Consumer spending remains positive, yet the pace is beginning to slow alongside a pullback in credit card usage, what could be causing this shift, and could we expect this trend to continue? Historically, wage growth has often differed between high-skilled and low-skilled occupations, with only a few key periods where both moved in tandem. Where are we seeing wage growth trending today, and what does that tell us about the current labor market? As we continue to monitor developments in the Iran conflict, one message has come through clearly—capital markets have appeared resilient. While U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly, how have international equities performed and have they participated in the recovery? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Crude oil is $95.04 per barrel•Colorado ranked 103 in Cost-of-Living Index 2025 Average•30-year mortgage at 6.23%
P 500 has recently fallen below its 200-day moving average, a key technical support level, raising an important question: is this simply a short-term, headline-driven pullback, or possibly an early signal of a more sustained shift in market direction? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways:•30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.38%•Unemployment rate remained at 4.4% •Crude Oil at $101.00 a barrel
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the inflation outlook, affordability, and hydrocarbons alongside urea prices. Spending in February grew about 3 percent year over year, which may indicate a relatively strong consumer. What can the uptick in consumer spending be attributed to? Inflation has remained elevated in recent data. What are the projections for a future rate cut or hike? Housing affordability remains strained, especially as the cost of building new homes stays elevated. In addition, with interest rates and other costs rising post-COVID, the annual mortgage payment as a share of income remains high. What are the current levels of monthly property insurance premiums, and what factors are built into them? Regarding energy, the United States is now a net exporter. Are regions such as the European union and China primarily net importers or next exporters of energy? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•PCE Core CPI at 3.1% (YoY)•National home price to income ratio was 4.93 in the fourth quarter of 2025•Crude Oil at $95.36 a barrel
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the evolving job market and affordability, financial markets and inflation, and break down the latest trends in imports and exports. Job availability has been trending lower since 2022. What factors could influence whether this trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses in the near term? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies have risen sharply in recent years. Where might this trend lead next, and what could the downstream implications be? The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal deficits will rise from 2026 through 2035 due to policy changes. What specific spending and revenue adjustments are driving those increases? As for the biggest source of U.S. imports, European Union took the lead, which country or region is close behind? Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings of U.S. government debt. Will this demand remain strong in the years ahead? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Real GDP increased 1.4% in Q4 2025•30 year mortgage dipped to 5.98% •Crude Oil rose to $72.58 per barrel
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, population trends, financial markets, and global freshwater withdrawal rates. Housing prices have declined year over year, while demand continues to vary by region. We explore whether prices might be showing signs of stabilizing, or if further declines may be possible. U.S. natural population growth has slowed in recent years, and tighter immigration policies have further weighed on overall population growth. Could the U.S. face negative population growth in the years ahead and could that dynamic influence housing prices? In the financial markets, U.S. IT investment has returned to all-time highs, matching levels last seen during the 2001 dot-com boom. The focus now shifts to whether earnings growth appears sufficient to support this investment surge, and what evidence could confirm its durability. European investors have played a meaningful role in supporting U.S. equity markets. How substantial is their exposure today, and what does the outlook suggest moving forward? When it comes to water, global freshwater withdrawals have increased severalfold over the past century as population growth, agriculture, and industrialization continue to strain limited resources. The question now is how sustainable this path might be. Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%•Durable Goods increased 5.3% •ISM Manufacturing Survey registered 52.6
P 500 earnings in recent years have been dominated by the likes of the Magnificent Seven stocks. We discuss current projections and market expectations for 2026 and whether there may be potential for broader participation across the stock index. Lastly, U.S. mortgage rates have dropped to one of the lowest levels in years, with refinancing applications increasing as a result. Has this had a positive effect on new home sales? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Unemployment at 4.4%•30-year Mortgage rate at 6.06%•Median New Home Sales Prices at $392.3k in October 2025
This week on Inside the Economy, we break down housing affordability, Wall Street’s equity outlook for 2026, the state of Venezuela’s oil industry, and the regional destinations driving China’s exports. Rent growth has moderated since the post-pandemic surge, while housing affordability has shown some signs of improvement. Where do current real house prices rank relative to the last five decades? We also take a closer look at recent commentary from Wall Street strategists on equities as we enter 2026. Many are striking an optimistic tone—do you agree with their perspective, or do you see reasons for caution? In 2014, Venezuela had more than 60 drilling rigs in operation. How does that compare to today’s reality? Meanwhile, China’s export mix by destination has evolved meaningfully over time. Where does the U.S. currently stand, particularly in light of the ongoing tariff discussions? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Crude Oil at $57.62 a barrel•Unemployment at 4.6%•PCE Core at 2.9% year over year
P 500 have been primary drivers of the market over the past few years. Is the index beginning to broaden now? What has led to Google’s success this year? We also examine long-term inflation, which has averaged around 3% in the U.S. How do inflation numbers in the 2020s compare to those of the 1970s and 1980s, and what insights can be drawn from 2025 inflation numbers? Meanwhile, disposable income and compensation growth have recently exceeded inflation by more than 2%, according to available data. Unemployment has ticked up to 4.6%, but when we zoom out historically, where are we and what cracks may be present? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Crude Oil at $55.07 a barrel•Unemployment at 4.6%•California’s share of U.S. GDP is 14.5%
This week on Inside the Economy, we cover U.S. consumer income growth, the growing rent-versus-buy debate among younger generations, and the latest in U.S. markets. Median income growth has cooled sharply since early 2022. The key question now: Are we normalizing, losing ground, or entering a new phase? With that in mind, it’s interesting to see how November’s median annual pay varies across states, with Colorado landing on the lower–middle end of the range. Does your state’s median income surprise you? Homeownership has declined in recent years, while rent prices continue to rise. For younger generations, it seems like it’s not just the purchase price giving them pause. What other factors might be shaping their decision to rent or buy? U.S. money-market funds have climbed past $8 trillion as the market keeps expanding. Curious how much foreign private investors have poured into U.S. stocks in recent years? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Crude oil reached $59.15 a barrel •30-year mortgage is 6.19%•U.S. employment remained at 4.4%
P 500’s 25-year average P/E ratio hitting 23.1, has the earnings growth been keeping pace? And when you hear the phrase “America First,” do you know what it truly means? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways:•30-year mortgage rates at 6.22%•10-year bond yield at 4.11%•Crude Oil at $59.66 a barrel
P 500 company earnings have been strong, driven mainly by gains in productivity. How do small business earnings compare? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•Core CPI Inflation at 3.0% (YOY)•10-year bond yield at 4.01%•Crude Oil at $61.84 a barrel
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the state of consumers and employment, today’s frothy markets, and economic developments in Europe. While we await updated jobless claims data —delayed due to the government shutdown—we can already see signs of possible moderation in consumer behavior. Both consumer and credit card spending have declined over the past three months, while consumer loan growth has remained relatively flat. The labor market continues to normalize following the hiring surge of recent years, and U.S. high-propensity business applications are steadily rising—suggesting continued entrepreneurial activity. Meanwhile, import prices have increased 4% compared to a 2% rise in domestic goods. Tune in to learn more about these trends and their potential implications for the broader economy.Key Takeaways:•Crude oil prices settled at $59.49 per barrel.•The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%.•The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.14%.
This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer spending, employment trends, new home sales data, and recent actions by the Federal Reserve. Despite concerns, there is minimal evidence that hiring has slowed drastically, and layoffs remain low. But are consumers starting to feel pressure when it comes to spending, particularly in the context of inflation? We also explore the current level of bank deposits and the impact of the September rate cut. With the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2025, is there justification—perhaps within the housing data? Lastly, corporate bond spreads aren’t widening to the extent seen during the 2008 financial crisis or the pandemic era. Where does the 10-year Treasury yield stand relative to its historical average? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•10-year bond yield at 4.18%•Federal Funds Rate in September at 4.25%•Manufacturing Production Index in August at 101.0
This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at employment trends, the pending rate cut, stock valuations, and the U.S. bond market. Jobless claims are rising and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Could fewer hours worked per employee be part of the story? Equity valuations are reaching levels not seen in decades. With the S&P 500 trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4, we explore whether a correction could occur or if there might be room for further growth. Meanwhile, in the bond market, commercial paper issuance has surged back to levels last seen in 2006. What could be driving this renewed activity after nearly two decades? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•U.S. Core Consumer Price Index at 3.1% (YOY)•ISM Service Survey reached 52.0 %•10-year bond yield at 4.01%
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss employment growth, the housing market, and the latest inflation data. Year-over-year job growth has dipped below 1%. Could this be a sign of a weakening labor market or a return to pre-pandemic norms? In housing, new home sales reveal a growing gap between inventory and buyer demand, raising questions about whether potential rate cuts could provide relief or if the market is simply adjusting after years of high prices. Meanwhile, inflation has ticked up slightly, but GDP remains relatively strong in the 3% range. Is the U.S. consumer starting to feel the pressure? Tune in to learn more.Key Takeaways:•PCE Core Inflation at 2.9% (YOY)•U.S. GDP growth rate at 3.3% in Q2•10-year bond yield at 4.22%
This week on Inside the Economy, we examine key developments in the latest economic report, with a focus on the Consumer Price Index and the primary drivers of inflation. We’ll also explore changes in average hourly earnings compared to a year ago, alongside trends in total debt balances. Are consumers spending money they already have, or might they be increasingly relying on debt? One of the most pressing topics right now is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. What outcome seems most likely by year’s end? And in a surprising shift, talk of a potential recession has nearly vanished from headlines, reaching near record lows in media mentions. What’s behind this dramatic change in tone? Tune in for insight and analysis on all this and more! Key Takeaways: •U.S. Core CPI rose to 3.1% •Mortgage debt now accounts for 70% of total household debt•Investors with 3-9 properties represent the largest share of single-family home purchases
This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at key developments in the labor market, housing, and energy. Nonfarm employment growth in the U.S. continues to slow. Are we seeing a return to pre-pandemic norms, or is something else driving this trend? Delinquencies are rising among upper income borrowers. How does this compare to lower income households, and could it point to broader representation of which jobs are not hiring? Federal Government employment is also declining. Which jobs are being impacted more and is it impacting public services offered by the government? On the corporate side, earnings have generally been strong, and markets appear to be adjusting in response to those results. What was the only sector to score negative earnings growth? Lastly, electricity costs are up approximately 15-20%. This is not due to electric vehicles or auto manufacturers, but instead a new source of demand that is straining the grid. What is fueling this surge? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. GDP growth rate at 3.0% in Q1•Federal Employment in July at 2.9M•European Union’s share of total U.S. Imports at 20.2% from January to May 2025
This week on Inside the Economy, we address the Consumer Price Index mainly looking at primary shelter, core goods, and U.S. retail sales. In the latest core consumer price index report, both primary shelter costs and core good prices continue to decline. Meanwhile, the potential impact of new tariffs is continuing to spark debate. How might they shape the inflation outlook moving forward? Real house prices are finally easing after years of steady increases. Could the 30-year fixed mortgage follow suit? On the earnings front, second quarter earnings are projected to grow just 2.8%, marking the lowest expected increase in the past two years. At the same time, expected volatility in the S&P 500 has dropped to its lowest level since February. Curious about how much interest the U.S. government is paying on its debt? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways:•U.S. Federal Government interest payments surpass $1 trillion •Japan’s GDP per capita has declined over the last decade •Chinese exports at record high
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the housing market, immigration, and the Treasury market. Mortgage rates have been hovering around 7%. Has the heightened level of interest rates negatively impacted existing home sales? New construction of single-family homes stands at over 900,000; how does that compare to multifamily construction? In other news, U.S. immigration trends for green card holders and temporary visa recipients have remained steady or slightly increased, but has immigration among other foreign nationals declined, possibly due to recent policy shifts? Meanwhile, the 30-year yield has begun to creep down from its peak in May. Could Treasuries still be considered a safe haven for both domestic and foreign investment? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Head CPI Inflation at 2.4% (YOY)•30-year Mortgage rate at 6.81%•Existing Home Sales at $4M in May
This week on Inside the Economy, we address stock market performance, corporate America, current trade and tariff developments, and government debt. The S&P 500 posted its best May performance in 35 years, challenging the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.” Which companies led the index during this rally? How have capital expenditures evolved among large technology firms in recent years? We also explore how Asian economies have significantly increased their net purchases of U.S. bonds and stocks since 1997—a trend largely driven by their export relationships with the U.S. and subsequent investments in U.S. Treasuries. Has this pattern changed since the onset of trade tensions? Finally, as tariffs increase the cost of imported goods and services, could businesses begin passing those costs on to consumers? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Unemployment at 4.2%•30-year bond yield at 4.95%•U.S. Debt-to-GFP ratio is 123% as of April 2025
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss tariffs, trade relations with the European Union, interest rates in the U.S. and abroad, and global stock market performance. U.S. Customs duties reached an all-time high, generating $25.5 billion in revenue in May. What sectors are the primary contributors to this surge? In recent developments, the U.S. and the E.U. have begun discussions on future trade agreements. As our largest trading partner—accounting for roughly 5% of U.S. GDP—what is currently the largest import from the E.U.? Turning to the bond market, the 30-year Treasury yield has hit both a yearly and decade high. While Moody’s recent downgrade played a role, what other factors might have contributed to the spike in yields? Finally, we explore market expectations for interest rate changes. How much easing is currently priced in based on 12-month federal funds rate futures? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•30-year bond yield at 5.03%•Head CPI Inflation at 2.3% (YOY)•Bank of Japan Policy Rate at .50% in May
This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the current state of wage growth, job prospects, inflation trends, Federal Reserve activity, and emerging trade agreements. Wage growth, which experienced downward pressure following the Fed’s interest rate hikes starting in 2022, appears to be stabilizing. Currently, the average monthly wage per U.S. worker is around $7,000. How does this figure compare with wages in the E.U. and other nations? On the inflation front, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) exceeds the rate of inflation (CPI), a potentially positive signal for the economy. Is there mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this summer? Meanwhile, trade negotiations are gaining momentum. How significant is it for the U.S. to secure a balanced trade agreement with China? What elements of the recent E.U. deal stand out as particularly beneficial for the U.S.? And which other countries might be priorities in America’s trade strategy? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% (YOY)•10-year bond yield at 4.37%•ISM Services at 51.6
This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at the impact of new tariffs, the S&P 500, and ongoing trade issues—particularly with China. Revenue from customs duties, commonly referred to as tariffs, has reached an all-time high since record-keeping began. While this revenue may soon peak and begin to decline, it is not projected to disappear entirely. In which countries or industries could tariffs remain elevated? Turning to markets and the S&P 500, earnings and revenues are not setting records, but healthcare and other sectors have been trending upward. Why are industrials moving lower? Could the market currently be in oversold territory? Trade tensions also continue to escalate, particularly between the U.S. and China. How does China’s dependence on exports with the U.S. compare with that of other trading partners. Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•New Orders for Durable Goods up 9.1%•Custom Duties reach $15B in revenue in April•Manufacturing Production Output index at 101.1 in March
This week on Inside the Economy, we analyze the strength of consumers in the economy, trade and tariffs, and economics of Russia in Europe. The economic report is still providing minimal worry signs for the current state of the economy. Consumer spending ticked down slightly in February—but has generally remained on trend. What events may have impacted consumer spending in the first quarter? Tariff strategies have been implemented at higher levels than expected but have recently been scaled back. Vietnam was the first country to enter negotiations with the U.S.—what is being discussed with Scott Bessent? What other countries have started talks with the U.S.? Meanwhile, European nations are recognizing the importance of Russia’s vast hydrocarbon supply as energy costs continue to rise. How does U.K. household electricity spending compare to that of the U.S.? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. Core CPI at 2.8 (YOY)•Unemployment at 4.2%•Discretionary Consumer Spending increased 2.1% in February (YOY)
This week, on "Inside the Economy," we will break down the international stock markets and their outperformance compared to the US in 2025. Could this be the beginning of a long-awaited turnaround in the international markets? The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed a slight uptick in March while personal incomes also rose. Can US consumers continue to power the economy forward as they have over the past few years? Amid a market pullback and the potential for a correction in the S&P500, we review recent market volatility and how often we see corrections and bear markets. Overall, we continue to see strength in international stocks and a normalization in inflation. Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•European stocks are beating the US by a record•Gold, International stocks, and Fixed income are the best performers of the year so far•Portfolio diversification appears to be benefiting investors as the S&P500 nears correction territory
This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer attitudes and market trends, specifically considering the S&P 500 entering correction territory. Revolving consumer credit as a percentage of disposable personal income is hovering around 6%, which has historically been considered a healthy level. Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP continues to stay on track. What is the current level of foreclosures in the housing market compared to 2008? Are trends in auto delinquencies showing signs of concern? The S&P 500 has reached correction territory but may have also entered oversold territory. Could the correction be a sign of trouble, or simply volatility? Looking at the timeframe from election day to now, treasuries are now beating stocks. How might future Federal Reserve meetings impact treasuries? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. Core CPI at 3.1 (YOY)•30-year Mortgage rate at 6.65%•S&P 500 1-year return of 10%
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore unemployment and jobs, U.S. net worth by households, and the housing market. Economic data suggests a potential return to trend growth. As of January, job openings reached 7.6 million, while unemployment peaked at 6.8 million. With recent developments regarding federal job cuts, potential reductions to the Department of Defense workforce have been considered. If a select percentage of these workers are laid off, what effect could that have on national unemployment? In other news, U.S. net worth has reached $170 trillion, primarily driven by housing and market investments. How much wealth is held by the average U.S. household compared to the rest of the world? New home sales fell 10% in January, but the overall level of home sales remains high when compared to 2010-2016. How has the multifamily sector performed in recent months? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Durable Goods at 3.1%•10-year bond yield at 4.29%•Crude Oil at $69.47 a barrel
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the current state of the domestic consumer in relation to inflation and interest rates, the potential for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, and Europe and Asia. The media has been buzzing about an increase in year-over-year inflation. Is this necessarily bad news, or is it an adjustment in the numbers? Which inflation data point saw the biggest increase? Additionally, the current administration has proposed the idea of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, with the goal of promoting fiscal sustainability. Could monetizing the U.S.’s majority stake in gold significantly aid in the creation of the fund? Across the globe, China has seen record investment outflows, alongside a minimal amount of inbound investment. Japan, once one of China’s top partners for direct investment, has shifted its focus. Who is Japan now prioritizing for direct investment? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY)•30-year Mortgage at 6.87%•The U.S. holds 8.1k metric tons of Gold as of Dec. 2024
This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss recent market activity, Treasury Bills, Oil, and the U.S. international trade balance in light of recent tariff discussions. The U.S. equity markets had a strong year last year but have been more volatile as the new year begins. Net profit margins and forward earnings are good, but what does the price-to-earnings ratio tell us about equities? Market expectations for Fed Policy has raised its target Federal Funds rate from 3% to 4% by 2026 between last fall to the start of the year. Is there a chance the Fed will hike rates in 2025? In oil production, the U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Historically, we were dependent on imports from Saudi Arabia—are we still dependent on them today? Finally, with ongoing tariff discussions, will they dramatically affect the U.S. international trade balance? Historically, the U.S. has had a service surplus and a goods deficit, but could the trade deficit shift with potential tariffs being implemented? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Durable Goods at -2.2%•ISM Survey at 50.9•U.S. Core CPI at 3.2 (YOY)
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the global economy, the new administration’s economic direction, and trade. Looking at projections for global GDP growth in 2025, we’re not expecting significant growth in countries like Great Britain and Germany. How will their respective central banks manage inflation compared to the United States? The U.S. economy has experienced steady post-pandemic GDP growth, with consumer spending leading the way. In the year ahead, we’ll be closely monitoring both consumer consumption and government spending. As for inflation, what key components will be monitored to ensure CPI remains steady? Turning to global supply chains, the ISM Manufacturing Index has remained in contraction for most of 2024. Key drivers include ongoing supply chain disruptions and the strength of the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, where does the services sector stand—contractionary or expansionary—heading into 2025? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Crude Oil at $76.13 a barrel•Unemployment at 4.1%•U.S. GDP growth rate at 3.1% in Q3
This week on “Inside the Economy,” we break down 2024 market performance, how finances for US households look going into 2025, and the housing market. The S&P 500 Index is in rare air with back-to-back 20%+ returns in 2023 and 2024. Should we expect another 20%+ in 2025? US consumers remain resilient with spending on goods and services finishing strong in 2024. Can US consumers continue to spend at the same rate in 2025? US home affordability remains historically low, and homeownership continues to hover around 62%. High interest rates with long-dated bonds back to their highest level over a year have kept a lid on refinancing and mortgage activity. Where will the US housing market go in 2025? Overall, we continue to see a normalization in the US dollar and interest rates. Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•US housing annual growth remains around its long-term average of 4-7%•30-year bonds moved back to their highest yield in more than a year, just shy of 5%•US Debt and the US Dollar continue to climb
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we break down the sectors of inflation, market trends, bond yields, and manufacturing production. The primary driver of inflation still present in the market is housing, while core goods show little to no inflation year-over-year. Where else has inflation cooled? New home prices remain high, and new home inventories are steady. Is household debt as a percentage of income impacting consumers when compared to historical data? As for the equity markets, they continue to be overvalued, particularly the Dow. In the manufacturing sector, production is nearly back to where it was pre pandemic. How do other countries like Germany and Japan compare in terms of manufacturing capacity? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•10-year bond yield at 4.57%•Core Inflation at 3.3% (YOY)•Manufacturing Production Index at 99.0 in November
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the outlook for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the job market, housing, and global markets. The chances of a future interest rate cut by the Fed have increased – what factors have led to this change? Yields on fixed income have gone down; how might they react to another interest rate cut? We also explore U.S. manufacturing employment and consider policy shifts in the past several years like tariffs aimed at retaining jobs. Are these policies successfully bringing jobs back to the U.S.? Is the overall job market starting to tighten? Additionally, we discuss the strong momentum in U.S. markets post-election – are stocks becoming overvalued, and what could trigger a correction? Is there still an imbalance between U.S. stocks as compared to markets in other countries? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•10-year bond yield at 4.17%•Unemployment at 4.2%•30-year Mortgage at 6.69%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer, markets, expectations, and the cost of money. Total retail sales exceeded $700 Billion in October. Are these high sales due to the upcoming holiday season? Have credit card debt delinquencies increased as a result of higher consumer spending? House prices have yet to retreat, despite higher mortgage rates. How much inventory is available for new home purchases? As for the markets, they continue to reach new record highs. According to the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, is the market currently overvalued or undervalued? Has the gap between U.S. and international securities widened? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. Head CPI is 2.6 (YOY)•Total Retail Sales in October at $718.9B•Median Single-Family Sale Price in October at $412.2k
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the post-election economy, changes in the mortgage market, and the future of deficit spending. Jobless claims remain consistent year-over-year, and the personal savings rate has normalized. Regarding wages and salaries, they have been decreasing year-over-year. Are consumers concerned that inflation will outpace their wages? Meanwhile, mortgage rates have increased in October and November. What is the current volume of mortgage refinance applications? Tariffs currently account for two percent of net federal receipts, while individual income taxes and social insurance taxes make up the majority. If more tariffs are enacted, what is the projected impact on future net federal receipts. Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•ISM Services at 56.0•30-year Mortgage at 6.79%•Personal Saving Rate at 4.6% in September
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess housing affordability, sales, mortgages, household cash on hand, and China’s demographics. Housing affordability is near a record low. How much would home prices have to decrease, or household incomes need to increase for affordability to return to the levels seen in the 2016-2019 markets? Total money-market fund assets are at a record $6.51 trillion, even though there aren’t any new flows into money markets. How are consumers using, or not using, their cash? Regarding China’s demographics, there have been significant shifts. What does the longevity of their nation look like, given the system-wide leverage disparity? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•10-year bond yield at 4.21%•Unemployment at 4.1%•30-year Mortgage at 6.54%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the levels of credit card debt, interest income, and relative insurance premiums across the United States. You may have seen news about credit card balances reaching an all-time high. However, did consumer credit card spending increase or decrease. What are the current levels of delinquencies on credit card debts? In other news, mortgage interest is not going higher, even with the rise in interest rates. How do home prices compare? What is the level of interest income paid out compared to mortgage interest? Regarding insurance, Colorado is on par with Florida concerning average annual insurance premiums. What has driven the increase in premiums in Colorado? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•30-year Mortgage at 6.32%•Unemployment at 4.1%•U.S Net Wealth in Q2 at $152.8T
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we delve into existing home sales, the current and projected federal funds rate, and the implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Existing home sales are trending downward - will the recent interest rate changes improve affordability for home buyers? How might these rate decreases impact the refinance market? As we look ahead, the target for the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.5% by next summer. Is this the soft landing we’ve all been hoping for? Additionally, deficit spending currently stands at -6.5% of GDP. Is this sustainable long-term? If the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act were to sunset, what would the implications be for deficit spending? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Core PCE Inflation at 2.7% (YOY)•Crude Oil at $68.22 a barrel•Federal Funds Rate at 5%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate consumer spending, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, and household income and mortgages. Consumer spending has slowed compared to the post-COVID highs, and we’ve observed a recent deceleration in student loan repayments. Is this a sign of consumer concern? Regarding income, U.S. households have seen an increase as of 2023 numbers. How does this compare to other countries worldwide? Have unions been a contributor to the increase in income? On the other hand, mortgages are a full point lower than they were a year ago. Is this decline due to economic factors or just anticipation? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. Head CPI is 2.5 (YOY)•30-year Mortgage at 6.20%•10-year bond yield at 3.68%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current state of employment, housing affordability, and U.S. Markets. Hiring has slowed since the post-covid highs. Are employed individuals at risk of losing their job? Is there evidence to support potential layoffs? On the housing front, affordability remains low due to factors such as pricing, cost of insurance, and interest rates. For consumers looking to buy, which markets have the best home value index in terms of the percent change from the 2022 peak? Regarding U.S. markets, recent adjustments have been made based on weakening economic data and the prospect of interest rates coming down. Since the markets are forward-looking, what momentum can we expect for the stock market in the second half of 2024? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Crude Oil at $73.55 a barrel•30-year Mortgage at 6.35%•10-year bond yield at 3.86%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt and the pending economic slowdown. Credit Card and HELOC balances have ticked up over recent months, but despite this, there has been limited delinquency in student loans, mortgages, and HELOCs. Auto loans and credit cards on the other hand have shown a slight uptick in delinquencies. What does that mean for the consumer as we move into the second half of the year? There is still lots of talk of “recession” on the horizon, as we see unemployment above 4%, but looking at the other data around the economy, does a slowdown seem more likely than recession? Revenue growth within the S&P 500, after a period of earnings recession, is beginning to normalize, reflecting a more balanced economic landscape. Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Headline inflation drops below 3%•Oil remains under $80•Unemployment at 4.3%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore unemployment, housing, and the federal budget. Regarding employment, the JOLTS three-month moving averages are trending downward. Additionally, permanent job losers and persons completing temporary jobs increased by 1.4% in July. If this figure reaches 2%, what might it indicate for the economy? In other news, Freddie Mac’s report on home sale prices shows a decrease year-over-year. Which markets are experiencing greater reductions in home sale prices? Will the overall housing market reach 2009 lows? The Federal Reserve has not materially shrunk the stock of money despite interest-rate hikes. Given the current money supply overhang, can the government stimulate a recovery? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•ISM Survey at 46.8•Unemployment at 4.3%•10-year bond yield at 3.99%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss housing, the Federal Reserve interest and Federal funds rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Federal funds rate is currently higher than all main U.S. inflation measures. Is the cost of money greater than inflation by design? In other news, per the CPI Primary Shelter measure, rents continue to come down. However, mortgage interest as a percent of disposable income increased slightly. How does that compare to non-mortgage interest such as credit cards and auto loans? If there is a recession, would housing be the driver? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•10 yr. bond at 4.2%•Industrial Production Output Index at 104.0 in June•U.S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY)
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the broader economic indicators, such as U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and housing and vacancy rates. Overall U.S. GDP growth has slowed as a comparison of 2023 to 2024 quarter one readings. When might we see negative GDP growth? Will there be a recession? Government employment has recently stabilized and is back to its pre-covid trend. How does this compare to non-government jobs and unemployment? Lastly, home buying conditions are down. What does this mean for new home sales? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. GDP growth rate at 1.3% in Q1•Unemployment at 4.1%•30 yr. Mortgage at 6.95%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss payroll and job openings, market valuations, and foreign demand in U.S. markets. The rate of U.S. job openings has dropped from its post-Covid peak. Is this a negative event or normalization in the job market? In other news, there is a large disparity between the S&P 500 market capitalization as a comparison to the European market. Does this mean the U.S market is overbought? What does this tell us regarding the U.S. dollar as a currency? Additionally, foreign demand has increased in the U.S. market. What securities are foreign investors pouring money into? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•10-year bond yield at 4.25%•U.S. Head CPI at 3.2 (YOY)•Unemployment at 4.0%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore wages, housing prices and mortgages, and the U.S. financial conditions. The U.S. average hourly earnings report for May came in with a reading of 4%. Why are year-over-year wages still high? What would lowering rates do for wages? As for housing, renters are not experiencing an increased burden regarding their income spent on housing. How does that compare to the homeowner’s burden? In other news, U.S. financial conditions are easing with less liquidity issues. What was the U.S. financial conditions index at when the Federal Reserve started interest rate hikes? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•ISM Services at 53.8•Unemployment at 4.0%•Aggregate delinquency rates at 3.2%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and U.S. Markets. The May consumer confidence index report shows a higher than anticipated reading. Who is typically surveyed for the consumer confidence index report? As for interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board forecasts rates to decrease to 4% in the next two years. What is the forecast for mortgage rates? Lastly, Foreign investments in U.S. Markets eclipse $25 Trillion. Do countries like Singapore, Australia, or the U.K. have additional monies for future investment? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Consumer Confidence Index at 102•30-Year Mortgage rate at 6.94%•Foreign Investments in U.S. Markets surpass $25T
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate employment, currency, and the importance of Natural Gas as a U.S. export. The recent job openings report shows a continued trend downward. What does this tell us about the trajectory of the U.S. economy? In other news, the U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen. How do global payments denominated in the U.S. dollar compare to other currencies such as the Euro? Lastly, the U.S. is a major exporter of Natural Gas. How much supply is left to keep the trend going? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Total job openings at 8.5M•U.S. Dollar Index at 106.2•ISM Manufacturing index falls below 50
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss personal interest expense and changes in household debt. What category has the highest percent change from 2023? New home sales have slowed due to higher interest rates, but what does this mean for delinquency rates? Federal net interest outlays are climbing higher in amount as compared to historical data. However, how does the near 3% share of GDP compare to the past and is it necessarily bad for the overall economy? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in Q1•Personal interest expense is approximately $500B•30-year mortgage at 7.17%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we monitor the increased consumer spending in tandem with rising delinquencies on mortgages. Is the Federal Reserve going to consider any rate hike movement before year-end? Consumers are still flooding into the stock market, alongside money flowing into money market bond funds. U.S. goods imported have remained steady or on the rise for most countries. What country is on the downward trend? Key Takeaways:•U.S. Head CPI at 3.5 (YOY)•Crude Oil at $83.71•Credit Card account revolving balances exceed $600B
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the good news for consumers and bad news for the Federal Reserve. Spending on new manufacturing construction projects has increased. Does this emulate a contracting or expanding economy? How will the Federal Reserve react to the ISM Survey and Manufacturing data? Home prices are at a stabilization point and still have a negative year-over-year percent change. Will the consumer start flooding back in the market? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•ISM Survey at 50.3•Durable Goods increased to 1.4•Core PCE inflation rate slowed to 2.8% (YOY)
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore where the economic slowdown is coming and where it is not. Household credit card debt has increased over the past few years. The outstanding interest payments for non-mortgage debt even caught up with mortgage interest payments. Does this emulate a struggling consumer? Have consumers gone delinquent? Mortgage debt is steady at 50% of GDP. What is the foreclosure inventory as a comparison?Key Takeaways:•Core CPI at 3.8 •Job openings fell to 8.9 million in January•U.S. Foreign workforce increased 5% (YOY)
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess household net worth and assets, commercial real estate, and the Dollar. The U.S. consumer has a strong balance sheet; specifically, with checking and savings. What does that mean for overall market exposure? The trade-weighted dollar continues to drive upwards and proving to still be a strong dollar. What does a strong dollar mean on the global scale? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•10-year bond rate is steady at 4.25%•U.S. GDP at 3.2% in Q4 of 2023•U.S. Fed Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Index at 121
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the various levels of Consumer debt and trends in the Market. Recent news has shown the appearance of layoffs in the market, but overall layoff numbers continue at 1%. Are we in crisis mode in the labor market? U.S. Household Debt has risen; however, most is held in Mortgage debt. Is the increased consumer debt an issue according to household liabilities and category of debt? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•U.S. Household Debt at $19 Trillion•Bank Deposits equal $17.5 Trillion•S&P 500 reached a 1.6% year over year Growth Rate
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor, debt and where the strain is starting to show. The U.S. debt levels are trending lower after recent infusions during the pandemic and reaching pre Covid levels relative to GDP. Should debt levels be a top priority? Unemployment continues to stay in the 3% range. Will unemployment claims increase with a changing marketplace? Tune in to learn more!Key Takeaways:•Core PCE Inflation under 3%•ISM Manufacturing index nearing 50•4th Quarter U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to evaluate the flood of new data. Inflation is still trending lower, and the job market continues to be close to full employment. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? Mortgage rates are also trending lower; however, housing inventory remains at all-time lows. When will things change? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways:•Oil prices back near $75 a barrel•Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5%•10-year above 4%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about some important economic data. GDP estimates continue to be above trend and unemployment remains low. However, the Fed seems to be content with inflation data trending lower and many are speculating on future rate cuts. How will this impact the stock and bond market in 2024? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways:•Oil prices drop below $70/barrel•Mortgage rates trending below 7%•Headline inflation trends lower
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and financial headwinds. Jobless claims and unemployment remain relatively stable, but how has the labor market changed since 2020 and where will the labor market go from here? Inflation continues to soften, yet as we look to 2024 where do we see potential headwinds to the economy? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•30-year mortgage down to 7%•Oil hovers around $75•Unemployment rate at 3.7%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a variety of economic news. The Fed has one more meeting to round out 2023. All eyes will be on if they continue to hold rates and the impact on unemployment and inflation. In other news, the housing market experienced the lowest number of existing home sales in more than a decade. Will housing prices continue to be resilient in the higher rate environment? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways:•Oil prices steady around $75 a barrel•Mortgage rates stuck in the mid 7%’s•Headline inflation trends lower
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and interest rates. With jobless claims and unemployment remaining relatively stable, how have hourly earnings changed since the pandemic and what does this mean for the labor market as we look ahead? As interest rates have risen from previous multi year lows, what does a higher interest rate environment look like for housing, commercial real estate, and U.S. loans? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Oil touches $80•Unemployment rate at 3.9%•30-year mortgages above 7.5%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss an array of economic news. Consumer spending is still strong and retail sales continue to climb. Even as the Fed raises rates, the housing market has stayed strong, and unemployment remains low. What, if anything, will begin to slow or influence the Fed to lower rates? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways:•Bond yields continue to rise•Oil prices rise again•Mortgage rates approach 8%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some economic hurdles in the system, as well as the budget deficit. Savings rates and new mortgage applications have dropped below pre-pandemic levels, along with an increasing office vacancy rate. What does this mean for the economy as we move into the 4th quarter? The budget deficit has been a main theme this year, but what are the specifics of where the government collects its revenue, current federal spending, and the US budget as a share of GDP? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Core CPI inflation at 4.1•Oil below $90•Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8•30-year mortgages above 7.5%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at consumer savings & globalization. Despite strong consumer demand and student loan payments starting back up, household savings remain at pre-pandemic highs. With an everchanging global economy, the US has diversified imports away from China and continues to increase industrial robots when it comes to domestic manufacturing. What does this mean as we look to the future? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Core PCE inflation comes in at 3.9•Oil stays above $90•Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8•30-year mortgages above 7.3%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we address new economic data. CPI jumped month over month, largely due to the increase in oil prices. How will this impact the Fed’s decisions for the rest of 2023? Overall, the economy is moving along, due to a strong consumer. Will the restart of student loan payments change this? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Bond yields continue to tick up.•Oil prices climb above $90 a barrel.•Mortgage rates elevated above 7%.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at wages and housing. Wage and salary growth has moved back to pre-pandemic levels, with the highest income households seeing the slowest growth, alongside declining job openings numbers. With virtually all rent measures currently on the rise, home prices have also continued to rise despite the recent increase in mortgage rates. Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Headline inflation hovers around 3•Oil back above $80•Unemployment rate at 3.8•30 year mortgages above 7.15%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to wade through the summer doldrums. The consumer is still spending and enjoying historically elevated home equity values. As the Fed continues to raise rates, yields across the board also rise. Mortgages continue to climb, and longer-term treasury yields slip higher. How long until inflation and the cost of money normalize? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise. • Oil prices slide below $80 per barrel. • Mortgage rates inched up above 7%.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some key data pieces. From a year ago, inflation has trended lower, unemployment has stayed the same, and treasury yields continue to climb. The Fed is continuing to raise rates as they receive traditionally conflicting data. Is inflation under control and how high do they need to go with the cost of money? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise. • Oil is around $80 per barrel. • Mortgage rates inched up to 6.9%.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the lending market, housing, the Federal Reserve, and other economic data. Lending data is showing delinquencies at record lows, as we prepare for student loan payments to start back up in September. Industrial production in the US has remained high, and with a potential Fed increase of 0.25% in rates and federal outlays outpacing revenues, what does that mean for the economy as we move further into the third quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Headline inflation hits 3 • Oil moves above $75 • Unemployment rate hovers around 3.6
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at unemployment and personal savings. Unemployment has continued to be a driver for the Fed decisions and after recently ticking back up, the unemployment rate has begun to slide down. What is causing such a robust employment market? With inflation on its slow decline, we are starting to see personal savings begin to move upward. How does the housing and rental market play a role in this going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Q1 GDP revised up to 2 • 2-year bond approaches 5% • Oil moves back above $70 • Mortgage rates cross over 6.8%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to look for meaningful changes in the economic data. CPI numbers continue to trend lower as energy and food continue to normalize. Student debt payments have garnered people’s attention as payments could come back online after August. How will this impact inflation? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Bond yields stable • Oil drops to $69 per barrel • Mortgage rates inch up to 6.7%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at several pieces of economic data, including inflation and housing. Inflation continues its slow decline and approaches the Fed Funds target rate, but is it enough to sway the Fed to pause at their upcoming meeting? Median home prices have started ticking upward, mortgage delinquencies are at record lows, and new mortgages are around 6.7%. Has the worst in the housing market passed? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Unemployment increases to 3.7% • 2-year bond over 4.5% • Oil hovers around $70 a barrel • Mortgage rates above 6.7%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at an array of economic data, most of it showing signs of a decently healthy economy. The Fed continues to fight inflation with a 0.25% increase next month still on the table. The debt ceiling debate seems to have a resolution as a deal is being finalized. Where will inflation and the Fed’s policy take us into the summer months and end of the year? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Bond yields on the rise•Oil around $74 per barrel•Mortgage rates around 6.5%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at inflation, consumer spending, jobs, and other economic data. With a decline in consumer spending, inflation continues to lower after the most recent 0.25% increase from the FED. Job openings have decreased across a majority of industries, and with the housing market seeing low purchase and refinance activity, where do we see the job and housing market going as we move further into the second quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•2-year bond drops below 4%•Oil drops to $70 a barrel•Mortgage rates remain above 6.25%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at income, housing and other economic data. ISM manufacturing data ticked up a bit, while GDP estimates for Q1 came in lower. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates 0.25% this month as inflation numbers continue to stay above 5%. What will it take to fight inflation and avoid a recession? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•3-month T-Bill above 5%•Oil drops to below $75 per barrel•Mortgage rates still above 6.25%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the consumer and financial stress in the system. Headline inflation came down year over year in the month of March. Many of the supply side contributors seem to be returning to pre-pandemic levels, however the consumer seems to be staying strong. How will this impact the Fed’s decision making for the rest of the year? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•2-year Treasury around 4%•Oil on the rise to about $83 per barrel•Mortgage rates still above 6.25%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss banking and inflation. Money market funds have seen large inflows over the past 2 months following the issues in the banking industry, but with the Fed’s balance sheet growing as well, what does this mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to soften with lower rents and supply chain procedures getting back to pre-pandemic levels. Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Q4 2022 GDP estimate 2.6%•Oil prices bump over $80•Unemployment remains at 3.6%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the headline news of two bank failures as well as other economic data. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was taken into conservatorship by the regulators and forced the FDIC and Fed to act. How will this impact monetary policy in the coming months? Unemployment was mixed and other data points to inflation continuing to trend downward in the right direction. Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•2-year Treasury falls to around 4%•Unemployment up at 3.6%•Mortgage rates still around 6.6%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer and inflation. Over the past 2 years we have seen household savings decrease and shelter prices increase, yet we have seen historical wage growth and strong consumer spending. As the Federal Reserve continues its fight against inflation, what does that mean for the consumer and prices as we move further into 2023? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Q4 2022 GDP estimate 2.7%•Unemployment remains at 3.4%•Mortgages bump up to 6.6%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. Inflation is trending lower, however it’s uncertain what it will take to achieve the Fed’s 2% target. The housing market continues to soften, and corporate earnings are projected to be lower for 2023. State governments seem to have plenty of funding. Tune in to find out more!Key Takeaways:•2-year treasury yield climbs higher above 4.5%•30-year mortgages move to 6.32%•Oil drops to around $76 per barrel
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and the Federal Reserve. Jobless claims continue to decrease and unemployment remains at record lows. With a slowing economy, what will that mean for employment for 2023? The Federal Reserve continues to raise rates with their most recent 0.25% increase in January. Will the data soften enough in 2023 to cause them to pause, or will they continue to raise rates? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Headline inflation lowers to 6.5•Unemployment down to 3.4•Mortgages hover around 6%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss important economic data. The labor market remains strong even as the Fed raises rates. The housing market continues to soften and corporate earnings per share are projected to be lower for 2023. Will we see a recession this year? Tune in to find out more!Key Takeaways:•2-year treasury yield remains above 4%•30-year mortgages move under 7%•Oil drops to around $80 per barrel
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve. With inflation beginning to soften, and a Federal Reserve meeting upcoming in late January, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve to see what they do next. Will softening data in the housing, labor, and services market be enough to relax the FED, or will they continue to be aggressive with interest rates as they start the new year? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•2022 Q3 GDP adjusted higher•Unemployment down to 3.5•Mortgages get back to 6.5%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the economic health of the consumer and corporations. For the consumer, hourly wages have leveled off and personal savings have decreased. Housing continues to be a sticking point for the consumer with the house-price index coming down and home equity withdrawal on the rise. Corporations on the other hand show strong profit margins despite sticky inflation, but what does that look like for 2023? Tune in to learn about this and more!Key Takeaways:•Oil drops to low $70s•3rd Quarter GDP revised up to 2.9•Mortgage rates under 6.5%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and the progress in the inflation battle. Inflation data, represented by the CPI index, has trended down. However, unemployment remains low lending it’s way to sustained strength in consumer spending. Will the conflicting data keep the Federal Reserve on their rate hike campaign, or will they slow down going into 2023? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield remains above 4% • 30-year mortgages move under 7% • Oil drops to around $80 per barrel
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the U.S. economy and the stock market. With the most recent year over year inflation number coming in lower than expected, what does that mean for the U.S. economy moving forward and will inflation continue to soften as we move into 2023? The stock market has shown some life over the past 2 weeks, but how do the Mid Term elections and a strong dollar fit into the equation? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Oil hits $88 a barrel • Unemployment ticks up slightly • New mortgage rates above 7
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at U.S. consumer, corporate and government data. Consumers have more in their checking and savings then they did pre pandemic. Inflation seems to be impacting some ways in which we spend but the aggregate remains up. Corporate profit margins remain elevated. Will the estimates continue to trend up into 2023? Tune in to learn more!
Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield is above 4% • 30-year mortgages are above 7% • The federal deficit contracts from 2020 and 2021
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve & housing. With the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in early November, the economy and the consumer are waiting to see where interest rates go. Will it be enough to dampen inflation as we move closer to 2023? The housing market continues to soften with mortgage rates above 7% and new loan applications at pre-pandemic lows. Why have prices remained steady and what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Oil is back above $85 per barrel • Jobless claims remain at lows • Outstanding consumer credit is on the rise • Manufacturing remains strong
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a thorough look at the data. Treasury yields have continued to rise as the Federal Reserve maintains their mandate to break inflation and stabilize prices. The consumer is still spending, and the job market continues to remain strong. Where will the cost of money be at the end of the year? Tune in to learn more!
Key Takeaways: • 2-year treasury yield is above 4% • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 7% • Oil continues to decline, down almost 40% YTD
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer & the U.S. economy. With inventory levels on the rise, the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, and gas prices moving back down, the U.S. consumer is hoping for inflation to cool as we move into the end of the year. With many saying that the U.S. Economy is heading for a recession, what does that actually mean for the stock market and what can we learn from the past? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Oil drops below $90 • 30-year mortgage rates above 6% • Natural gas prices continue to rise • Mortgage delinquencies & foreclosures at all-time lows
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss jobs and housing. Layoffs and initial jobless claims remain at low levels, along with increases in the labor participation rate. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have jumped as we continue to see mortgage rates increase and home prices adjust down, but how is this different from what we saw in 2008? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Jobless claims hold steady • Corporate profit margins on solid footing • Mortgages approaching 6% • Consumer spending starting to slow
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation & housing. The Consumer Price Index shows us that inflation may have hit its peak, but goods and services spending remain strong and the Fed continues to show its willingness to raise rates to try to tame inflation. The supply of homes in the U.S. has risen as new loan applications fall with the increase in mortgage rates, but what does that mean for the housing market going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • US industrial production continues to rise • Used car market weakens • Oil hovering around $90 • Mortgage rates back up above 5%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt & real estate. Consumer debt continues to rise alongside a decline in the personal saving rate to pre-pandemic levels. Home prices have started to come down as mortgage rates rise above 5%, but what does this mean for new home buyers and the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 estimated earnings remain strong • Unemployment numbers shift lower • Oil back down to $90 • Major indices trend up in July
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will dive a little deeper into June’s headline vs core inflation numbers. As oil drops below $100/barrel, will that signal the peak of inflation? In the housing market, loan applications decline to a level we haven’t seen in over two decades. Where will mortgage rates end up? Tune in to learn more!
Key Takeaways: • 10-year treasury yield is around 2.9% • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6% • Jobless claims tick up
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer prices and potential recession. As inflation continues to remain high, we are seeing increased gas & food prices but also lower logistics costs & home prices. What does that mean for our wallets in the coming months? There has been talk of recession, but what does that mean for the consumer and are there any surprises in the economy moving forward? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 forecasted earnings remain strong • Oil back below $100 • U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen • New U.S. manufacturing construction hits new highs
This week on “Inside the Economy”, all eyes continue to be on inflation as well as mortgage rates. We’ve seen energy, metals and other commodities trend lower, which should create some relief in the overall inflation numbers. As the Fed continues to raise short term rates, mortgage rates continue to climb. This is creating some softness in home prices and new homes being built. Will this impact the rental market? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways: • Oil falls off highs, down to $104 per barrel • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6% • The 10-year treasury yield is above 3%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer spending and housing. With credit card spending on the rise and savings rates moving down, how long will this strong consumer spending last? Net home sales have seen a national pullback, and with mortgage rates in the high 5% range, where do we think the housing market is going? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings ratio adjusts down to 16 • Oil above $120 • Core inflation sitting at 6% • Unemployment rate of 3.6%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a full economic agenda including inflation, the stock market and news on global food supplies. Job openings continue to rise, and data suggest people 65 and older haven’t returned to the workforce since April 2020. Will we see this change due to higher gas and food prices? The stock market continues to experience volatility and how bad is the water crisis in the middle east? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways: • Oil remains above $100 per barrel • 30-year mortgages are closing in on 6% • The 10-year treasury yield falls to 2.85%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the latest reports and economic data. First quarter GDP numbers surprised to the down side and reported as -1.4% year over year. The contraction in GDP largely was due to the trade imbalance and less government spending. Will we see more negative GDP numbers in Q2? We also look at rising yields and mortgage rates. Will the Federal Reserve aggressively continue their rate hike campaign and what does that mean for the global economy? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways: • Oil remains above $100 per barrel • 30 year mortgage rates climb above 5% • The 10 year treasury yield reaches 3%.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Employment and Inflation. We are currently seeing elevated costs of employment, along with low jobless claims, but what does that mean for the economy going forward? Inflation continues to remain at elevated levels, but will the Federal Reserve raising interest rates help to bring it back down? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: • Oil above $100 • Natural gas prices increase • 30-year mortgage rates up to 5% • 2021 average tax returns see a boost
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the consumer and corporate profits. The labor force participation rate is climbing and has almost returned to pre-pandemic lows. Mortgage rates are rising, up almost to 5% on a 30-year fixed. Will this impact household spending? How about savings? Corporate profit margins turned in another good quarter. Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil stays around $100 per barrel • Mortgage payment to income ratio climbs • Major indices have started to rebound from recent lows.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the Federal Reserve and energy prices. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, how will that effect inflation and where do we think interest rates will be by the end of the year? Energy prices are sitting at elevated levels, but how long will this persist and what does supply look like going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil stays above $100 • Equity markets rebound on earnings outlook • 30-year mortgage rates up to 4% • Retail sales up 8% from pre pandemic levels • Unemployment under 4%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED meeting and the economy. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, what comments do we expect to see on inflation and interest rates, and how will that effect markets? The economy continues to move along nicely as we saw all-time highs in holiday sales and household spending continuing to rise, but where do supply chain issues, wages, and inflation factor into this story? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - Equity markets turn down to start 2022 - Crude Oil up past $85 - Increase in mortgage rates
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and government spending. We continue to see inflation at elevated levels, but with low wage growth, a strong dollar, and core services inflation sitting around 4%, where do we see inflation going in the future? State and Local Governments are seeing an uptick in revenues as they continue to get some help at the Federal level. But once the Covid Federal support for the consumer goes away, how much will they be on the hook for? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - S&P 500 Price/Earnings leveling off - Crude Oil continuing to stay around $70 - Jobless Claims continue to decrease
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a few different topics. Jobless claims are trending down and permanent job loss from 2020 has recovered quicker than in 2008 and 2001. Some countries have tapped into strategic oil reserves and the recent price decline reflects the impact of extra supply in the market. Estate Tax revenue has been cut in half since 2017. How will the government look to increase future revenue? Tune in to find out!
Key Takeaways: - Savings rate have reversed to pre-pandemic levels - 10-year treasury is starting to tick up - M2 Money Supply continues to grow
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss numerous topics. Jobless claims continue to drop, trending towards pre-pandemic lows. Inflation numbers continue to make headlines. Is inflation coming from the push or pull side? What’s the difference? Revenue of the largest U.S. companies continues to trend upwards. How has the recovery been overseas? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - 30-year mortgage rates slightly drop below 3% - Employment growth has favored higher educated workers - Oil inventories and demand are trending towards pre pandemic levels
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED and the consumer. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, we are seeing the market has already reacted to the potential of raising of rates in the somewhat near future. But with the yield curve already flattening and mortgage rates rising, what do we anticipate from the FED over the next 12 months? The consumer is still King as we see consumer spending continuing to rise into the holidays, delinquency rates in single family homes moving down, home sales increasing, and unemployment numbers getting back to pre-covid levels. Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - Projected US GDP comes in at 2.0 YOY for the 3rd Quarter 2021 - Wages and salaries continue to increase at a steady pace - Crude Oil up to $83 due to tight supply - S&P 500 companies with record high profitability
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the individual consumer and the ongoing recovery. We are continuing to see personal income rise, along with disposable income going to debt payments at all-time lows. Will this continue as we head into the winter months and 2022? We are seeing the fastest recovery in permanent job losses when compared to the last 2 recessions, continued housing price growth, and solid YTD returns in the equity markets. Why are there so many “We are Hiring” signs still on every block? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - US GDP comes in at 6.7 YOY for the 2nd Quarter 2021 - Crude Oil prices hit $80 - Unemployment numbers continue to come down
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we gear up to follow and monitor holiday sales. Will this be a record year for sales? The stock market has seen some recent volatility due to a variety of headlines including corporate earnings revisions. Is this pull back healthy for the stock market long term? What is the annual wage of Chinese factory workers and what is the significance? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - 30 year mortgages rise to around 3% - Household cash and cash-equivalents continue to climb - Grain prices begin to pull back
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Inflation and the continued economic recovery. With inflation on everyone’s mind, we discuss where it sits currently, why it’s hanging around 3.6, and what makes us think those levels won’t be here to stay. In regards to the continued economic recovery, we are seeing continued strength in equity markets, increasing rent prices in both apartment and single-family homes, and jobless claims continuing to decrease. Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - The yield curve flattens a touch over the past week - Crude Oil prices stay above 70 - Steady increases in both Employee Compensation and Gov’t Social Benefits
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to analyze inflation. What are some of the key inflation indicators like money supply and the velocity of money telling us? In other topics, corporate revenues continue to climb. What does this mean for the equity markets? With so many people behind on rent, what will happen to the debt? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the global recovery and consumer behavior. We are seeing the global economy get back on track with a rise in corporate profits, continued low unemployment numbers, and State Revenues recovering to pre-Covid levels. With the Delta Variant becoming more prevalent across the globe, will we see this pattern continue through the end of the year? Consumer behavior is also beginning to turn up as we see increased spending volumes, low average loan balances, and core inflation remaining elevated in the short term. Be sure to tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - 2nd Quarter GDP comes in around 6.5% - Gas and oil markets begin to stabilize - Inventories remain at all-time lows due to supply issues - Corporate profit margins continue to recover
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a closer look at recent consumer spending trends. Spending has started to stabilize. What are consumers doing with their money? In other news, forbearance and eviction protection is coming to an end this week. Will it be extended? All eyes continue to be on the Federal Reserve. What will their next actions be? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - 30 year mortgages continue to drop - The 2020 recession was shortest on record - Drought in the western states continue to pose problems
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and the jobs outlook. Core inflation has continued to rise, reaching about 3.4% YOY. Spending has remained muted, savings rates are at all-time highs, food and gas prices have risen, but with the Federal Reserve’s target still at 2%, where will inflation be at the end of the year? Job growth is rebounding faster than any other recession Post WWII, but when will we see full employment? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - Personal savings rates continue to sit at all-time highs - Medium home prices remain high with low market supply - Low yields continue in investment-grade corporate bonds - 2021 1st Quarter GDP estimate comes in at 6.4%
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a deeper look at inflation. With core inflation rising to 3.8%, is this price inflation in the market a long-term trend or transitory? Unemployment numbers continue to shrink as unemployment benefits lessen and folks get back to work. U.S. imports begin to increase again as demand for cars and other goods skyrocket. TSA Checkpoint travel numbers have drastically increased, showing that Americans are ready for a summer vacation. There is a major drought out West, which states and industries have been affected the most? Tune in to hear about all this and more! This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a deeper look at inflation. With core inflation rising to 3.8%, is this price inflation in the market a long-term trend or transitory? Unemployment numbers continue to shrink as unemployment benefits lessen and folks get back to work. U.S. imports begin to increase again as demand for cars and other goods skyrocket. TSA Checkpoint travel numbers have drastically increased, showing that Americans are ready for a summer vacation. There is a major drought out West, which states and industries have been affected the most? Tune in to hear about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: Unemployment numbers have dropped to 5.8% as unemployment benefits decrease Corporate pensions are almost 100% funded, the first time since 2008 The U.S. Stock market continues to climb, showing drastic improvements since June 2020 TSA Traveler Throughput breached 2 million travelers in one day last week, the first time since March 2020 Arizona manufacturing, California farmland and the almond industry may have a difficult 2021 due to a Western drought Key Takeaways: - Unemployment numbers have dropped to 5.8% as unemployment benefits decrease - Corporate pensions are almost 100% funded, the first time since 2008 - The U.S. Stock market continues to climb, showing drastic improvements since June 2020 - TSA Traveler Throughput breached 2 million travelers in one day last week, the first time since March 2020 - Arizona manufacturing, California farmland and the almond industry may have a difficult 2021 due to a Western drought
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will address inflation and consumer spending. Core inflation year over year jumped in April. The Federal Reserve’s target is still 2%, where will it be at the end of the year? Spending is back to where it was, however, most consumers are still sitting on a lot of cash. Will this keep inflation at bay? Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - Oil is little changed despite the cybersecurity issue on east coast - 30 year mortgages continue to steady - Hourly wages pick up as service industry reopens - The U.S. dollar is still the world reserve currency, by a lot
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the increase in consumer spending and the uptick in inflation. Inflation has seen a small increase, mainly driven from the current energy sector. There has been an increase in consumer spending, with the fastest pace of consumer spending on record this past March. The question is, will it continue and where is the money coming from? Personal savings has continued to grow to all-time highs as people continue to wait to spend money on travel, entertainment, etc. Tune in to learn about all this and more!
Key Takeaways: - U.S. Retail Sales rise at second fastest pace on record - Headline CPI grows higher, driven by energy, yet remains below 2% - Personal savings continue to grow to all-time highs - Earnings and profits drive stock market higher
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recent change in inflation and the current housing market. There has been a boost in headline inflation, driven by rising fuel prices and increased travel. Is this trend here to stay or is it a temporary reaction? Personal savings grew over the last year, but consumers are looking to make up for lost time with increased spending in 2021. Low housing inventory is driving up prices, but which sector of the housing market has the lowest supply? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: -Retail Sales hit a new high after a year of increased savings -Headline CPI grows higher, driven by fuel prices, while Core CPI stays under 2% -Gasoline supply returns to pre-pandemic levels as travel improves -Sparce inventory in low-income housing has driven up prices, while interest rates remain low -State and local tax revenue continued to grow in 2020, despite the pandemic
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the future of individual and government spending. Personal income has seen a boost in the last year, thanks to unemployment benefits and government stimulus. President Biden has released details for a $2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Where does he plan to spend the most money? Which tech giant has added over half a million jobs in the last year? Tune in to hear about all of this and more!
Key Takeaways: - GDP numbers continue to slowly increase - Biden’s Infrastructure plan includes spending $620 billion on transportation, with a large allotment to electric vehicles - Corporate profits continue to grow - In the last year, Amazon hired more employees than 136 other top companies combined - Corporate taxes are relatively low, but most likely will see an increase
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current interest rate environment and fears of inflation. The 10 year treasury has continued to rise forcing bond prices lower. Where will the 10 year yield end up? Fears around inflation may be outweighing reality. The yield curve is steepening, but what does that mean? Will the new administration be able to close the funding gap? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways:
- Oil prices remain steady
- Unemployment continues to trend in the right direction
- The housing market is still robust
- New business applications are on the rise
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the nation’s debt levels and the direction of interest rates. The recent movement in Congress on another stimulus package will add another $1.9 trillion to the nation’s debt. Are these debt levels sustainable? What’s the impact of the debt and will it be manageable when interest rates rise? The stock market has experienced recent volatility, specifically in the tech sector. Where will the index be at the end of 2021? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways: • Current stimulus package is around 9% of GDP • Personal Income continues to rise due to stimulus checks • Oil prices reach mid $60s • Unemployment continues to decline
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the state of inflation and the future of the bond market. The yield curve continues to normalize as long-term interest rates slowly creep up. Overall inflation has stayed low, but there are sectors that have seen major price inflation. We are still in the midst of a bull market; how do the last 11 months compare to previous bull markets? Investment-grade bonds were a place of comfort during a volatile year, but has that changed in 2021? Tune in to learn more!
Key Take-aways: - Textbooks and college tuition led price inflation from 1996-2006 - As industrial and manufacturing production return to pre-pandemic levels, so does U.S. imports and exports - The current bull market is up 75% from the low in March, the second largest bull market return - Leveraged loans and high-yield debt start the year off strong - Paying off all student debt would cost $1.5 trillion
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recovery of consumer spending. Since the start of the pandemic, consumer spending is trending up and credit card balances are trending down. Will this continue in 2021 and what impact will it have on GDP? The Federal Reserve expects to keep rates low for at least 12-18 months. As the Fed continues to buy debt, what will that do to the yield curve and treasury markets? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways: - Oil prices are steadily increasing. - Fourth quarter GDP estimates are around 4%, we expect it to be revised higher. - 30-year mortgages are still under 3%. - Unemployment steadily declines.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine where U.S. citizens and the government are spending money. As the end of year numbers start to roll in, it looks like consumers did not hold back when it came to holiday spending. Part of that spending included an increase in imported goods, but one import is being left behind as the U.S. produces more stateside. Many public companies are sitting on a plethora of cash, but what about Americans and non-profits? The value of real estate continues to increase, but are the trends far off from what we have seen historically? Tune in to learn about this and more!
Key Takeaways: - We are importing more goods than ever, but less petroleum - Americans still have trillions of dollars sitting in savings accounts - Household asset values continue to climb, a lot in thanks to real estate values - Manufacturing has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels - The U.S. dollar is at its lowest point since 2018
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the start of 2021 in terms of economic data. Unemployment holds steady around 6.7%. Manufacturing data continues to expand and improve. Oil prices break $50 to start the year. What impacts will Saudi Arabia and Russia have on the oil markets in 2021? Government debt continues to pile up. What are the risks and is it a problem? State revenues are looking better than projected. Will there be another stimulus? Tune in to find out.
Key Takeaways: - Annual Hiring is picking up - Oil prices break $50 - The Federal Deficit continues to climb - Inflation is still muted, but treasury yields are creeping higher.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the spending trends of U.S. consumers and the effect on domestic businesses. As unemployment rates improve, Americans get back to spending their hard-earned money. With used car sales continuing to climb—is public transportation doomed? The flight to the suburbs continues as downtown rental vacancies increase and new construction housing reaches a new high. This spending trend has had a positive impact on the U.S. economy as many businesses are seeing increased revenues. How has this spending trend impacted new business applications? Tune in to hear about all this and more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. consumers continue to spend, especially on used cars and new build homes • Downtown rental vacancies across the U.S. reach new heights • Company revenues are recovering, boosted by consumer spending Commercial and industrial lending increases as interest rates remain low • Applications for new U.S. businesses have grown by almost 40% year-over-year
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about U.S. consumer and business trends. Consumers are paying down debt and household net worth continues to increase. The travel & leisure industries have not seen a rebound due to consumers staying away, however retail car sales are almost back to normal. How long will it take for certain industries to recover? On the business side, bond issuance and borrowing maintain their rising pace. What is the trend in new business applications? Tune in to find out and hear more!
Key Takeaways: • Manufacturing is beginning to stabilize • Unemployment is mostly unchanged from last month, but more major companies are planning layoffs soon • Retail car sales are on the rise and almost back to normal • Delinquency rates are down slightly 80% of the economy has adapted, the other 20% may need a vaccine before returning to normal
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the improving job market and current debt trends during the coronavirus pandemic. Unemployment rates continue to improve as people get back to work and stop collecting unemployment benefits. A combination of spending less and uncertainty surrounding the future has Americans paying down debt. Where are debt delinquencies increasing and where are they decreasing? Many U.S. citizens are sitting on additional cash, but how much cash is currently sitting in the U.S. banking system? Corporations continue to issue new bonds as money remains “cheap” due to low interest rates. Tune in to hear about all of this and more! Key Takeaways: • Unemployment rates and outstanding benefit claims continue to decrease • Unemployment benefits made-up over 30% of U.S. personal income, but has declined • Outstanding consumer debt has reduced as Americans pay off loans • There is currently over $12 trillion in cash sitting in American’s savings accounts • Gross corporate bond issuance in 2020 has exceeded years past
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we focus on the employment trends. Unemployment remains high, however new jobs are being created in specific sectors. On a positive note, retail spending at non store retailers have increased year over year. Will this trend continue? The extra $600 per month of Federal unemployment has stopped and to no surprise, mortgage delinquencies are on the rise. We also look at remittances to Mexico, the dollar and gold prices. Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways: - Unemployment remains high overall, but in pockets of the job market hiring is robust - Retail spending continues to trend upwards - Foreclosures and evictions are starting to increase - Workers in the US are sending more money back to Mexico to support families - Less oil transactions and international tourism are a few factors contributing to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we reflect on the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment trends from the second quarter. What was the impact on GDP as a result of the lockdown? As spending and employment rates continue to recover, what is in store for the remainder of 2020? More job openings are becoming available and temporary layoffs are returning to the workforce, but what is the trend with permanent layoffs? Consumer spending has been down since many are staying closer to home, but it seems as if stimulus spending has helped boost spending during this difficult year. What industries have seen the direct impact of restricted spending? Tune in to hear this and much more! Key Takeaways: • GDP declined at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2 of 2020. • Temporary layoffs have dropped, but permanent job loss has been slowly climbing • Job openings are beginning to increase • Decreased spending has led to less outstanding credit as Americans have more money to pay off loans and credit cards • Travel, real estate, consumer discretionary, and energy have all seen the impact of the stay-at-home order
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to monitor economic data as it continues to improve. Fiscal stimulus comes in many forms, like the direct payments or federal unemployment benefits, and has totaled more than 12% of GDP. What will the next bill look like from Congress and how much more money will be added to the national debt? Gold has had a strong rally as buyers speculate on future inflation and the value of the dollar. What’s to come over the next several months? Tune in to find out more!
Key Takeaways: • Economic data continues to improve with retail sales, production increases, and housing data. • Stock market indices continue their recovery lead by big tech as earnings show better than expected. • Gold is rallying and another stimulus bill from Congress is coming soon.
Today on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the impact that COVID-19 has had on the U.S. job market. As a society, we have witnessed numerous recessions over the last 75 years but none quite like this. How will the uncertainty regarding Coronavirus effect unemployment over the long-term? As Americans wait to see what is next, many are sitting on more cash than usual. How is this impacting spending and has it affected stock market returns? Tune in to find out!
Key Takeaways:
• COVID-19 spurred a dramatic change in unemployment numbers, different from previous recessions
• Although unemployment numbers remain high, we are starting to see an increase in hiring and job openings again
• We have seen an increase in mortgage delinquency but it is nowhere near 2008-09 This year has been a volatile year for all asset classes but gold and 10-year Treasuries remain on top
• Corporate debt and money supply continue to climb
This week on “Inside the Economy”, we refocus on the biggest driver of the economy, consumer spending. Retail sales were up in May, auto sales are climbing back and sales of new homes returned to a level of normalcy. An upward trend in consumer spending is a sign of economic relief, however states and local governments may still have challenges ahead. How has COVID-19 affected state revenues and what is the implication for municipal bonds? Tune in to find out!
Key Takeaways: • Consumer Spending is on an upward trajectory and May data showed a big uptick in retail, auto and new home sales. • Forbearances have mostly paused, and the housing market is returning to normal even though most states still are not allowing physical showings. • State and Local governments have seen a big drop in revenue. This may point to more aid from the federal government.
This week on “Inside the Economy”, Americans have spent the last few months saving more and spending less. As spending begins to resuscitate, where are we seeing inflation in the system? We are starting to see an increase in travelers making their way through TSA but are nowhere near the 2.5 million flyers per day we saw during summer 2019. How are the airlines coping with the slower summer days? Through a volatile market, who are the current winners and losers? Tune in to find out! Key Takeaways: • Initial jobless claims are decreasing in Colorado while some are going back to work— others are still hesitant to spend their hard-earned money • The demand for recreation services and outdoor equipment has increased prices • Home sales are picking back up as Americans are staying local • Airlines are leaning on CARES Act Support to navigate through hard times • The U.S. dollar has been losing strength in conjunction with oil prices and low interest rates
This week on Inside the Economy, we address the beginning of the end of a great social experiment. Human behaviors have changed and will continue to evolve as businesses and consumers move forward. The S&P 500 continues to separate itself from the grim economic data with positive performance. Why is there such a disconnect? One catalyst may be how quickly the Federal Reserve and Congress acted to maintain liquidity in capital markets. As we adjust to the impact of COVID-19, the markets may start focusing more on other potential volatile events, like what is going on in Hong Kong and an upcoming presidential election. Tune in to hear more!
Today on “Inside the Economy with SH&J”, we take a look at where people are investing their hard-earned money. Americans are spending less on their credit cards but are investing in real estate and home improvement projects. While some are purchasing new homes, others are struggling to make their mortgage payments. Will the missed payments have a long-term economic impact? The stock market has made a slow but steady recovery, have we seen the worst of it or is there more volatility to come? Amazon has proven it can weather the storm, but how are other retailers holding up?
This week on Inside the Economy, we begin to see the economic impact of COVID-19 in the numbers. No surprise, unemployment claims have surged. The next question we need to address is how long will people stay unemployed? The first quarter GDP readings contracted -4.8%, the most since 2008. More than likely, second quarter GDP will decline further, but the U.S. is doing relatively well compared to other countries economic decline. With earnings season wrapping up, health care, consumer staples and technology reported better than expected while other sectors struggled. Tune in to hear more!
This week on Inside the Economy, we continue to talk about the impact COVID-19 is having on the global economy. The U.S. government has interrupted the momentum of the economy asking American people to stay home. The U.S. has already injected liquidity of approximately 11% of GDP into the system. What will the final cost be? As some states gear up to start reopening certain parts of the economy, one thing is certain, there will be clear winners and losers. Tune in to hear more!
This week on Inside the Economy, we dig into the economic implications from the Coronavirus. Unemployment numbers have jumped up from their all-time low—how has the virus impacted the hiring process and what industries are seeing the biggest effects? We have seen highs and lows in the stock market this year. What is to come as we head into first quarter earnings season? We break down the CARES Act and how it reflects what the U.S. has learned from 2008. Tune in for this and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the sharp contraction in the markets with the S&P 500 dropping more than 30% since its all-time high on February 19th. Although it looks and feels like a recession, what economic indicators signify a true recession and when will we learn if we are living through one? How has social distancing impacted the economy and what is the Federal Reserve and government implementing in order to help ease financial stress? Find out on today’s Inside the Economy.
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we will be diving into how the Coronavirus outbreak is impacting the global markets. Will the recent volatility drive investors to safety or has this become a buying opportunity? Will there be a long-lasting impact on the global economy? The Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut in lieu of volatility—have we seen one-off rate cuts like this before? Low interest rates have homeowners flocking to refinance, but what is the effect on their bond portfolios? Cheap oil prices usually lead to increased travel, but this year jetsetters may be staying local. Tune in to hear all of this and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we take a look at the economic data which continues to slow. Is the coronavirus to blame or are other factors impacting global growth? The U.S. stock market is fully valued based on price to earnings ratio. Does this mean the market has reached its ceiling, or will momentum carry prices higher? In other economic data, job openings are trending lower. Tune in to find out more on this week’s Inside the Economy.
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the world’s safe haven. When countries become fearful or need a safe place to put their money can you guess where they go? Hint: it is not the country currently dominating the headlines for the Coronavirus. Speaking of the Coronavirus, this week we examine the historical impact of world epidemics on the global stock market. The results may surprise you. Last but not least, we will highlight a sector of the bond market that is in high demand, municipal bonds. Tune in to learn more.
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we dive into the major headlines of 2020 and what effect these events may have on the global economy. The Coronavirus continues to concern the population of China and there have been reported cases in over 12 countries around the world. Is this outbreak any different than what we have seen historically and what effect may it have on your portfolios? Back in the U.S., earnings from the fourth quarter are beginning to roll out, showing the U.S. continued to spend during the Christmas season. Yields are historically low, but it may be for a different reason than what the media portrays. Tune in to hear about all of this and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the U.S. consumer’s wealth and balance sheet. Did you know 72% of household assets are financial assets? We step back in time and study the S&P 500 index over the last seven decades. It may not be a surprise, but we are in the longest, post-war, expansion ever! As globalization becomes ever more prevalent, we end our discussion with our thoughts on global growth for 2020. Tune in to hear more. Enjoy!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss where Americans are leveraging debt and creating wealth. We know a college education is more expensive than ever, so how has this impacted student loan debt? Where is a majority of U.S. wealth held; stocks, real estate or bonds? The S&P 500 has been in the longest running bull market for the last 10 years without seeing a bear market. Will this trend continue into 2020? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss many facets of the U.S. economy, including the consumer, manufacturing, and debt situation. The average U.S. household holds less debt versus the historical average. What are consumers doing with the extra cash? As the global economy continues to slow, what effect does this have on U.S. exports? What does the decline in global car sales tell us about the broader world economy? We also take a look at the breakdown of U.S. government debt and its sustainability. Tune in to hear about all of this and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the recent patterns of the U.S. consumer. More than 70% percent of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending. How have lower interest rates this year impacted our spending habits, especially when it comes to housing? Debt seems to be a common four-letter word in the media, but if we break down global debt, is the situation as bad as it seems? Previously we mentioned the transition to alternative energy, but hydrocarbons are not a thing of the past, quite yet! Tune in to hear more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the latest decision from the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October. Is the latest cut a mid-cycle adjustment or has a new trend emerged? How do 30 year mortgages and HELOC’s compare and contrast over time to the fed funds rate and what does it all mean? The yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury is trending towards all-time lows, but it remains much higher than other country’s debt. How can bonds have a negative yield and what are central banks trying to encourage businesses and consumers to do? Lastly, will there be a recession in 2020? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the continuation of the economic slowdown. The U.S. economy is still growing, but at a slowing rate according to GDP numbers. What can we expect from the Federal Reserve over the next few years and how may that affect GDP? The wavering global economy continues on a path of uncertainty; what part does the U.S. dollar play in the global market volatility? Many of us have seen firsthand the growing presence of wind turbines throughout Colorado, the Midwest and beyond. But what impact are they really having in the energy world? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the recent ISM (Institute of Supply Management) numbers. The numbers indicate slowing in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Is the rest of the U.S. economy starting to contract as well? What affect does all of this have on worker’s wages? We are now starting to see how tariffs are beginning to impact the U.S. consumer. Will the tariffs have an effect on inflation too? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss current debt levels around the world. What is the projected budget deficit for the U.S. government this year and how does it compare to years past? The European manufacturing sector is most likely in a recession. Is there another sector that is showing signs of expansion? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the recent Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers. The manufacturing numbers have been in a downward trend for about a year now. How close are we to seeing these numbers signal a contraction in manufacturing? Has the change in interest rates had any effect on the U.S. dollar? The total household debt in the U.S. is about 100% of net disposable income. How does this compare to other countries around the world? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the strength of the U.S. dollar and its correlation with changing interest rates. Since the Fed started raising rates, the U.S. dollar has strengthened. Will that trend continue now that the Fed is reversing course? Even with the recent volatility, the U.S. Stock market is still near all-time highs. Have corporate earnings kept up with the increase in stock prices this year? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the effects of lower mortgage rates on the housing market. Which region in the U.S. is seeing home prices increase at the fastest rates? The answer may surprise you. Corporate earnings have seen robust growth since 2017. What are most corporations choosing to do with the excess profits? Tune in to find out these answers, and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the Federal Reserve meeting happening this week. It looks like the market is already assuming the Fed will cut interest rates, but how much lower could interest rates go in the future and what affect would that have on the economy? Speaking of low interest rates, there is now around $14 trillion in negative yielding debt around the world. What countries currently have the lowest interest rates and why are their citizens buying negative yielding bonds? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss unemployment numbers. Job openings in May exceeded the number of people unemployed for the 15th straight month. Could there be a new natural rate of unemployment in a robust economy? Short term interest rates have already priced in an interest rate cut for July. What are the possible implications of the Fed’s decision at the upcoming meeting? Media bias aside, what is really going on with state and federal debt? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss a slight slowdown in the manufacturing sector of the economy. Inventories and job cuts are increasing, but how important is manufacturing to the health of the overall US economy compared to service jobs? Could this play a role in whether or not the Fed decides to adjust rates? With the talk of tariffs affecting US trade with China, what other country in Asia has seen exports to the US increase? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss how this week’s Fed decision could determine the future of inflation and bond prices. In a news-driven market, how will talks of trade negotiation and the upcoming election affect the S&P 500 in 2019? The U.S. stock market has been one of the best performing investments over the last 10 years; so why is it important to continue holding bonds in your portfolio? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the recent bond rally that have sent yields downward. What has been the cause of this rally and do the recent tariff talks have anything to do with it? The Midwest is experiencing near record flooding; what kind of impact will this have on agriculture in the area? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the ongoing tariff negotiations that have been dominating the news cycle. How much of an impact would tariffs have on Chinese-imported goods and is it likely to cause inflation? The state of California is single-handedly one of the largest economies in the world. Has job growth there been increasing or declining, and does the expensive real estate market in the state have anything to do with it? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at last week’s meeting. What are some of the reasons for the Fed’s decision? There’s been a lot of media coverage about Social Security being depleted in the next few decades. How much of a surplus is there currently in the Social Security trust fund and how soon will social security have to make changes? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at the current economic expansion in the U.S. since the Great Recession. How does this compare to historical expansions and is there an end in sight? The lack of water supply in the western U.S. is causing farmers to leave in large numbers. Where are these farmers moving their operations? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the rising debt balance in the global economy. How does the total debt in the U.S. economy compare to debt in other parts of the world? The U.S. has imported less from China over the past year and a half due to the change in tariffs. Which country has picked up the slack and increased its exports to the U.S.? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the recent bounce back in the U.S. stock market. The market is close to the all-time high it reached last Summer, but is it starting to get overvalued? An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable recession indicator. Is the current flattening of the yield curve a cause of concern for our economic outlook? The U.S. dollar strengthened in 2018 due to many factors, including higher interest rates and tariffs. Are these dynamics still affecting the direction of the dollar? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at how the U.S. consumer is doing. Personal Net Worth and consumer spending is up year-over-year, but is it trending in a positive direction? Germany’s Real Order growth just went negative, how will this affect growth estimates in economies around the world? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at the drivers of GDP in the United States. With current inflation numbers hovering around 2%, where in the economy are we seeing signs of high and low inflation? Prices at the gas pump have been climbing, what is to blame? With China dipping into recession territory, where does that leave the U.S. in the business cycle? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at wage increases. Wages have recently increased at the fastest rate since 2009. How much does the growth of the manufacturing sector play a part in this increase? There has been quite a bit of media coverage about raising the highest marginal tax rate. Have higher tax rates generated greater tax revenues historically? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the effects of the government shutdown on the U.S. economy. What percentage of U.S. GDP is comprised of Federal consumption and investment? The national unemployment rate remains below 4%. Tune in to find out which states have better unemployment numbers than others and where the chances of a global recession stand.
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we look back at the stock market in 2018. After the fourth quarter volatility, is the stock market now more fairly valued? The German economy is a driving force in the EU. Could their slowdown signal a recession in the Euro area? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at corporate debt issuance in 2018 versus issuance in 2006. Are corporations taking on more or less debt than they did before the Financial Crisis? We also discuss how Brexit could complicate the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. What could be different with this border when the UK leaves the EU? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at how E-commerce is shaping economies across the globe. The U.S. accounts for the most revenue per user, but which country has the most E-commerce users? Unemployment in the U.S. continues to be below 4%, but which states are faring better than others? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the effects of rising interest rates. The Fed is expected to announce another interest rate hike in mid-December. How does this effect the U.S. housing market? With market unpredictability being a media focus, we compare stock market volatility in 2018 versus historical averages. How is Europe’s economy holding up with news of Brexit and China slowing? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the most recent GDP numbers. The GDP estimates point to a very strong economy, but is it growing too fast? With the holiday season on the horizon, we take a look at credit card borrowing and the growth of retail sales. How does retail growth in the U.S. compare to China? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss where the trend in stock buybacks is headed. Are we on pace to set a new record for stock repurchases in 2018? Kentucky ranks as the highest U.S. state for auto manufacturing output per capita, and trends in the Kentucky jobless claims report aid in signaling where U.S. auto sales are headed. Does the recent jobs report signal a slowdown in the auto industry? Also, how have mortgage rates affected housing affordability? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the Fed’s recent rate increase. Is there an end in sight for these rate hikes? We review manufacturing indexes both domestically and globally. The U.S. remains in a slow growth mode, but what about the rest of the world? Over a billion dollars left the Hong Kong stock market recently, is recent performance to blame? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at home prices in markets around the country. With mortgage rates creeping up, what kind of affect is this having on the real estate market? Manufacturing sentiment in the US continues to be strong, but where is the sentiment trending in foreign countries? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we turn our focus to the Guangdong province in China. Guangdong is used as a barometer for how global trade is doing. With the talk of U.S. tariffs over the past few months, how has this affected manufacturing and exporting in Guangdong and what does it mean for global trade? The U.S. stock market is continuing to flirt with all-time highs, are corporate profits growing to sustain the stock valuations? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the current bull market for the U.S. stock market. How does it compare to other bull markets, and what is the driving force behind it? In addition, there has been a lot of talk in the news about the Turkish Lira. What other emerging market currencies are at risk of a crisis, and what kind of effect would it have on the U.S. economy? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we review core inflation numbers. Now that we have the highest core inflation in the past decade, what could this mean for the U.S. economy? Have the second quarter earnings numbers supported the all-time highs in the U.S. stock market again? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions along with a review of the U.S. debt to GDP ratio and a new challenge public utility companies are facing.
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the second quarter GDP numbers. The U.S. economy is continuing to see robust growth. We review some of the supporting components, and how long this expansion may last. As mortgage rates and home prices continue to increase, what effect does this have on new home buying? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we have a discussion on inflation. The producer price index (PPI) is rising at its fastest pace in about seven years. What kind of impact might the new tariffs have on this number and the economy overall? It has been a volatile six months for the U.S. stock market. Have we gotten back to end of January highs? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we take a look at oil prices. A barrel of crude oil is now trading up near $75. What kind of impact will this price increase have on the prices we pay at the pump? In addition, much attention has been given to the talk of tariffs. What kind of effect is this having on stock prices of Chinese companies? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate increase that occurred last week. The Fed Funds rate is now at 2%. How many more increases can we expect this year and what will happen to bonds when the rate hikes cease? We are near full employment in the U.S. economy, and the recent job numbers may indicate something we have never seen in the job market before. Tune in to find out about these topics and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the potential impacts of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the new Italian government. What is the reason many international stock markets have been trending negative over the past few weeks? Consumer confidence is near an all-time high in the U.S., and the personal savings rate has been decreasing. Is this correlation normal or is it a sign of things to come for the U.S. economy? Tune in this week to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss interest rates and the yield curve. The yield curve is flattening, and historically inverted yield curves have signaled the start of recessions. How probable is it for us to get an inverted yield curve in the near future? In addition, in many areas around the country, it is a seller’s market in real estate, especially Denver. Does this mean people are actually taking advantage and selling their homes? Tune in to find out answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the resurgence of the City of Detroit. Detroit is seeing real estate values increase for the first time since 2012. What caused this economic turnaround and are there additional municipalities that could look to the Motor City for inspiration? A fascinating discovery of rare earth elements was found on a tiny island in the South Pacific. What kind of implications could this have on the global economy? Tune into this week’s discussion to learn about these topics and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we review the number of new jobs that have been created in the U.S. economy this year. In addition, there continues to be a number of headlines related to the trade tariffs that the Trump administration wants to impose. Listen in as we look at each state’s biggest export/import partner and discuss what implications these tariffs may have on the U.S. economy.
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the volatility that has crept back into the global equity markets. How does this stock market volatility compare to past market conditions? Last week the Federal Reserve raised rates by another .25%. How many more rate increases can we expect over the next 12 months? We also review the trade balances with the top four U.S. trade partners. What goods make up the largest portion of imports from China? Tune in to this week’s episode to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy w/ SH&J, we discuss the impacts that the new tariffs may have on steel. Could there be a different event that has a more significant impact on steel prices other than the tariffs? The U.S. stock market has recovered from the February declines. Have S&P 500 companies’ earnings been increasing enough since the Great Recession to justify the market being at all-time highs again? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the recent volatility in the U.S. Stock market. Is this a sign of things to come, or will the markets start to settle down? With mortgage rates creeping higher, what effect does this have on the US housing market? Tune in as we discuss these topics and more on this week’s economic discussion.
On this week’s Inside the Economy w/ SH&J, we discuss what last week’s market sell off means for the stock market moving forward. Was it a signal of more to come, or does the outlook for the U.S. economy remain bright? With the recent tax law changes now taking effect, will personal disposable income increase, and if so, by how much? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!
On this week’s episode of Inside the Economy, we look at Bitcoin to see how its recent price surge compares to some of the most famous asset bubbles in history. Global stock markets have gotten off to a strong start in 2018, but will this trend continue throughout the year? We also discuss the Federal Funds Rate, and what kind of hikes we expect to see through 2019. Tune in to hear about these topics and much more!
On today’s Inside the Economy, we recap 2017 stock market performance. Last year the index was consistently higher at the end of each month all year. Will we see a similar climb in 2018 and 2019? How will the tax code changes affect the stock markets? Tune in to hear this and more in the first Inside the Economy of 2018!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we look at the change in direction of oil prices. Could a rise in oil prices signify the beginning of a recession, as has often been the case historically? In addition, we examine the U.S. stock market compared to other markets throughout the world. What has this performance meant for individual wealth, and which countries are benefiting the most? Tune in to find out.
In this week’s Inside the Economy, we take a look at inflation numbers in the U.S. After years of little to no inflation, we may start to see core inflation inch up to historical levels in the next year. In the consumer credit space, auto loan delinquencies have started to creep up, while delinquencies for student loans remain relatively unchanged. Tune in as we explore these trends and much more.
In this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we examine S&P 500 companies’ record dividend payouts so far this year. What does this do to U.S. stock prices and can these record payouts continue? Many of the major economies across the globe are seeing expansion at the same time that the U.S. economy is growing. Are foreign companies taking part in offering dividend yield to investors similar to U.S. companies? Find out the answers to these questions and more by tuning in!
Today on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we review the Fed’s equilibrium rate target - the rate that is “ideal for the economy at full employment and growing at its potential”. We also review the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 as well as the strong underlying macroeconomics of the United States. Which country wants to be the new tourist destination? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the effects that natural disasters such as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have on the U.S. economy. Greater Houston is the metropolitan area that contributes the most to United States Real GDP growth. Will Hurricane Harvey’s devastation of one of the nation’s most productive economic centers signal a slowdown for the U.S. economy as a whole? Tune in to find out!
On this week’s Inside the Economy, we examine how America’s personal savings have changed since the Great Recession. We also discuss how the Federal Reserve will begin to unwind its balance sheet of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities over the next 5 years. Outside of the U.S., economic activity in Spain is looking brighter. What kind of impact will this positive outlook have on the referendum on Catalan independence on October 1st? Tune in to find out!
On today’s Inside the Economy, we look at the U.S. consumer and review disposable income and personal consumption. We also discuss the Fed’s QT (Quantitative Tightening) Policy of increasing interest rates and the changes to the Fed’s balance sheet as they begin to roll off the assets they acquired during the 2008-2009 timeframe. How will this affect our economy? Tune in to find out!
This week on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we review positive news with the release of the first estimate for second quarter GDP and the GDP outlook for the remainder of 2017. Listen in as we discuss the contribution of mining to earnings in the energy sector along with an update on the U.S. shale oil industry. In addition, can you guess which U.S. cities are seeing an influx of financial jobs?
This week on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we take a look at U.S. Energy consumption and the historic and current sources of electricity production. In addition, we review how large the U.S. economy has grown and the impact of inflation. Will a decrease in personal tax cuts encourage Americans to spend more and stimulate the economy? Tune in for an objective view on these issues and more.
Today on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we revisit the cause of the high inflation and interest rate environment in the early 1980’s and why looking back in time is important in comparison to today’s economic environment. We also compare and contrast the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 today to the early 2000’s tech bubble. Listen in as we take a stroll down memory lane and more.
Today on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the sustainability of 2% inflation here in the U.S. and the impact it has on long-term interest rates and mortgage rates despite the Federal Reserve’s increase in short-term rates. Inflation drivers, or lack thereof, also play a role in gasoline prices and car retail sales. Listen in to hear more about China’s recent downgrade by Moody’s, as well as which country has the largest capital inflow into the United States for commercial real estate.
The U.S. consumer debt burden is as low as it’s been in 30 years as savings increase and employment numbers are full. Today we discuss the United States’ need for continued immigration and why increasing interest rates aren’t reflected in money market accounts. Listen in to hear more about U.S. economics and Europe’s end of quantitative easing.
As the U.S. economy nears full employment, consumer confidence has increased and consumer debt has decreased. Today we discuss the impact of the French election and the international marketplace, as well as sovereign debt around the world. Stay tuned to learn more about GDP and inflation projections for 2017.
Tune in to our first video edition of Inside the Economy w/ SH&J!
The Fed has now raised rates another 0.25% with the possibility of reaching 1.0% by the end of 2017. Ultimately, the goal of increasing rates is to keep CPI inflation around the 2% target – today we review why achieving this goal may prove difficult. In addition, we discuss the American Health Care Act (AHCA) as a possible alternative to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the impact this has on Medicaid costs. Stay tuned to learn more about the underlying economics as we end the first quarter of 2017.
This week on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we focus on baby boomers and municipal bonds. Listen in to find out how prepared boomers are for retirement as well as how the lack of growth in sales taxes is impacting municipal bonds. We also discuss the rise in average hourly earnings since 2014 and the trend in consumer and government borrowing. Will we see another Fed Funds rate increase in March?
This week on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss what the next brewing bubbles in the U.S. economy may be, and whether or not their imbalances could cause the next recession. In addition, we review the capital inflows of international money into U.S. commercial real estate and why China is selling off a portion of their U.S. Treasury holdings. Listen in to hear the economic chances of a recession in the near future.
This week on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we review the driving forces for raising interest rates and inflation including unemployment, consumer debt, and retail pricing. Also covered is the longer-term potential growth slope for GDP. Listen in to hear this week’s discussion, which includes insight on the United States’ dependence on trade and an update on the Eurozone.
This week on Inside the Economy, we discover why the age of low inflation may be ending and how yields are likely to be pushed higher. The Dow crossed above 20,000 for an all-time high on January 25, 2017, creating a stir in media headlines. Which sectors are being positively and negatively impacted by the incoming administration’s new policies? Listen in to find out more!
This week on Inside the Economy, we review how a strong U.S. dollar and higher interest rates have affected the exporting sector of the U.S. economy and borrowing costs over the last year. Can you guess what the next bubble may be? Listen in to find out, and hear more on expectations for manufacturing’s share of total employment here in the U.S., as well as what a cut in corporate tax receipts could mean for Federal Revenue.
In our first Inside the Economy of the new year, we discuss our economic outlook for 2017. The U.S. is about 7.5 years into the current business expansion, which is approaching the 10-year record from the 1990’s but will the S&P 500 continue to increase in valuation? What can we expect for mortgage rates this year? Listen in to hear more on these topics in our first economic update of 2017!
This week on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the recent Federal increase in interest rates and the likelihood of additional increases in 2017. How will the higher interest rates impact us in the Denver real estate market? Will we see a push on wage inflation in 2017? Listen in to hear our last economic update for 2016!
This week on Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss how OPEC’s recent decision to cut production impacted the U.S. stock market and the level of influence we can expect from OPEC going forward. Additionally, the new administration may have a plan to bring overseas corporate profits back to the U.S., but will repatriation be important? Listen in to hear more on these issues as well as U.S. contributions to globalization by industry since 1997.
Since election day, all eyes have been on the stock market in anticipation of what the new administration may bring. In addition, the yield curve has clearly shifted up in anticipation of a potential December interest rate increase. Listen to SH&J’s discussion on the current state of the U.S. economy and the impact of international quantitative easing policies on the dollar.
It is no surprise that the Fed elected not to raise interest rates this month, although the Consumer Price Index is creeping back to the level the Feds are seeking. In addition, funds from Japan and the Eurozone continue to flood into U.S. based investments and will likely remain here for the foreseeable future. Why is this important? Listen in to hear this week’s economic update.
If you have any questions or topics you would like addressed, please let us know in the comments section of the blog and we will cover them during our next recording on October 10th.
Despite a decline in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey indices, 10 year Treasury yields increased to 1.67%. For the first time in a while, we are also starting to see German and Japanese 10 year bonds in positive rate territory. Here in the U.S., household debt remained low and a survey released by BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) indicates that 2015 spending increased, mainly due to increased personal insurance and retirement contributions. Listen in to hear more on these issues as well as how total household debt as a percentage of GDP in the U.S. compares to Canada.
The combination of improved earnings, strong U.S. economic data, and the prospects for continued low interest rates are likely indicators that propelled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices into all-time highs this month. Listen in to hear more on this and about U.S. consumer spending, debt levels and savings.
July wrapped up with a nice rally in the U.S. markets, proving that summer can be a productive season in your investment portfolio. Today’s discussion brings our attention to U.S. GDP, the bond markets, and the emerging markets. Listen in to find out which two emerging market countries are projected to be the fastest growing in 2016!
As the frenzy surrounding the Brexit vote calms down, we shift our focus to the U.S. economy where we are rapidly approaching full employment and continue to be perceived as an attractive investment. While a third of the world has negative sovereign debt rates, the U.S. offers better yields, a sense of security and liquidity to domestic and foreign investors. Inflation remains low and we are starting to see real estate slow down to historical trends in many regions. This week, we also touch on the progress of Abenomics along with a possible constitutional change in Japan - listen in to hear what that change may be!
Today we bring you a special edition of Inside the Economy with SH&J. As many are now aware, last Friday, 52% of voters elected for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union after a 43 year partnership. While it is not a legally binding referendum, the UK will begin a 2 year clock negotiating the terms of their exit. As a result of the vote, the global markets fell approximately 12% and the U.S. markets fell around 5%.
The jury will be deliberating this unprecedented event for several months or longer but one thing is for sure, markets hate uncertainty and increased volatility is expected over the short term. Although we have been assessing the investment ramifications of a Brexit for some time (knowing that the polls showed the vote would be very close), we don’t necessarily feel it will have any significant impact on the U.S. economy. The correction of the U.S. markets in particular over the past two days, in our opinion, is primarily based on fear of change and has little to do with U.S. economic reality. The same cannot be said for England.
Additionally, our investment process is designed to minimize the financial effects of singular headline events such as this, and we see no reason to make any major changes to the asset allocation of diversified portfolios at this time. We will be reevaluating our international investments to make sure they are properly positioned.
Our own Independence Day celebrations will occur next week and perhaps by the time the fireworks are over, the world markets will be a little calmer although the repercussions of this historic vote will probably have as long lasting an effect as ours did in 1776-only this time "The British are leaving, The British are leaving”.
To hear more on the Brexit, please tune into a special edition of "Inside the Economy with SH&J” below:
As the summer heat rises, the economic news slows down. This week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J focuses on Thursday’s Brexit vote as well as newly released U.S. consumer debt figures. Listen in to find out which U.S. state has risen to the #6 seat in the world’s largest economies and why we likely won’t be seeing interest rate increases this summer.
This week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J provides updates on the jobs report released last week and the effect it had on the bond market as well as the likelihood for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in June. An increase in average hourly earnings has created a concern about increased automation leading to elimination of some minimum wage jobs or jobs going to more highly educated individuals. Listen in to hear more on the continued inflow of new money into the U.S. from overseas in search of safety and liquidity.
As we transition into summertime, the news is slowing and the economic committee reviews macroeconomic trends including a look at the Federal debt level and increased subprime lending (mostly in auto loans) as well as China’s continued investment in U.S. real estate. Additionally, hear what information about Saudi Arabia has been kept a secret for more than four decades and how much of the focus around the world is on treasuries and confidence. Post your questions one the blog and we will answer them during our next Inside the Economy with SH&J in two weeks!
Larry Howes kicks off the New Year with his outlook on the economy in 2016. How did the interest rate increase in December affect mortgages? Will U.S. inflation reach the Fed’s target rate of 2%? What is expected from the U.S. economy and markets this year? What will happen to the U.S. dollar? What can we expect to see in Europe this year? Listen in as Larry addresses these questions and more!