Real Vision Daily Briefing: Finance & Investing: Recent Episodes
Real Vision Podcast Network
Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts. We unlock access to the leading financial minds in the world to provide unbiased, in-depth analysis from real experts. The Real Vision podcast features our flagship series The Interview - the premier business and finance interview series in the world; And, the Daily Briefing which provides market analysis every weekday after US markets close and before Asian markets open. Subscribe today to get both of these shows totally free.Brought to you from Real Vision.
🔥 THE NEW REAL VISION - Join for only $20,14 https://rvtv.io/3PwLpw2 Tom Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, sits down with Maggie Lake to dissect today’s slightly hotter-than-expected CPI report. Plus, Tom will share why he's bullish on energy, worried about U.S. Treasury bond issuance, and what he thinks about Tesla’s recent upgrade and rebound.You can find more of Tom's work here: http://hedgefundtelemetry.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
🔥 THE NEW REAL VISION - Join for only $20,14 https://rvtv.io/3PwLpw2 Real Vision’s Maggie Lake welcomes Shehzad Qazi, managing director and COO at China Beige Book International, to look at the state of the Chinese economy, the health of its property sector, U.S-China relations, and the global ripple effects that China exerts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
🔥 THE NEW REAL VISION - Join for only $20,14 https://rvtv.io/3sIJviO Maggie Lake is joined by Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, to discuss his perspective on the global macro landscape. They delve into where he believes rates, bond issuance, and asset prices are headed next — and what it means for broader markets. You can find more of Andy’s work here: https://dampedspring.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jeremy Schwartz, global CIO at WisdomTree Asset Management, joins Maggie Lake to break down the recent price action in mega cap tech, China-U.S. relations after China's recent ban on the iPhone, and the factors influencing September's interest rate decision.You can find more of Jeremy's work here: https://t.co/7r8WAngKUp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jesse Felder, founder of Felder Investment Research, joins Ash Bennington to discuss his outlook on the Federal Reserve and its policies, the impacts of rapidly rising rates on the broader market, and why he believes the U.S. equity market is severely mispriced. You can find more of Jesse's work here: https://t.co/bvf4IL8Oha Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Maggie Lake to discuss a potential breakout in the tech sector, the factors driving price in commodites, and how he is positioning his portfolio at the moment. You can find more of Tony's work here: https://t.co/IuOqbaQY1a Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Geo Chen, author of the Fidenza Macro blog, joins Maggie Lake to address the troubling economic situation emerging in China, discuss which global indicators have him most concerned, and explore the potential ripple effects of China's exporting deflation. You can find more of Geo's work here: https://fidenza.substack.com/archive Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Kevin Muir, author of The MacroTourist newsletter, sees a future with much higher than average, volatile inflation. Alongside Tony Greer of TG Macro and The Morning Navigator, Kevin explores how this threatens the long-standing negative correlation between stocks and bonds and how this profoundly impacts portfolio construction. Kevin Muir kindly shared 5 of his paywalled articles exclusively for RV members. Find them here: https://tinyurl.com/msnhewp9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Dive into the inaugural episode of "AI Fire Hose" with hosts Ash Bennington and Mikhail Voloshin. This podcast sets the stage for a captivating exploration of the state and potential of artificial intelligence. With the combined expertise of journalist Ash and AI maven Mikhail, this episode promises to provide a nuanced conversation on AI's current landscape and its trajectory for the coming decade. From breakthroughs in deep learning to the real-world integration of AI tools, our hosts dissect the most recent developments and speculate on the ripple effects across industries, economies, and societies. This deep dive is not just about the technology but also its ethical, economic, and societal implications. Whether you're an AI aficionado, a tech professional, or just curious about the innovations defining our times, this episode is your gateway to understanding the force that is AI.
CHAPTERS: (00:00) Intro to "AI Fire Hose" (00:30) Ash & Mikhail's backgrounds (01:33) Guest: Mikhail's cat (02:10) Mention of "Dopamine" novel (02:40) Podcast's origin story (03:02) AI: hype vs reality (03:59) Brain-computer interfaces intro (04:34) Unbabel device spotlight (05:11) Understanding EMG (06:48) How Unbabel device works (08:02) Predictive algo & LLM (08:59) Hawking & ALS tech (10:12) Unbabel's future (10:49) Another brain-tech intro (11:20) UCSF research & patient (11:56) Brain signals for speech (12:28) AI & sci-fi movie refs (13:03) AI's role in speech synthesis (13:36) Tech's impact on speech issues (14:10) OpenAI & tech market topic (14:41) OpenAI's 2022 losses (15:12) OpenAI's AGI mission (15:49) OpenAI's expenses (16:27) OpenAI's revenue streams (16:58) OpenAI's hiring & salaries (17:35) Machine learning market trends (18:11) OpenAI infrastructure costs (18:45) NVIDIA in tech market (19:22) Neural network deep dive (19:55) Why "neural network"? (21:08) Evolution of neural nets (21:38) AI & copyright in arts (22:10) AI content's copyright status (22:42) AI & human content collab (24:17) Spell checks & copyrights (24:45) Grammarly & AI copyrights (25:12) Article source & bias (25:38) Legalities & tech advances (26:18) AI in coding & CodeLama (27:23) GPT history & code gen (29:06) Naming tech tools (30:10) AI in Dev Environments (30:48) Advice to young engineers (33:02) End discussion insights (33:28) Tech market vs hype (35:07) Show's closing remarks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian sits down with Maggie Lake to discuss the price action post-NVDA earnings, his takeaways after Powell spoke at Jackson Hole, and what he is expecting to happen in the bond market. You can find more of Jared's work here: https://t.co/G7ZK0pEnK2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Grab a drink and join Raoul as he answers audience questions to help educate and navigate you through this very confusing economic environment. Plus, you may even learn a little something about wine...! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
President of Spectra Markets, Brent Donnelly, sits down with Maggie Lake to discuss Nvidia's earnings, explore the economic data that may have the U.S. see a slower Q4, and his outlook for China's economy. You can find more of Brent's work here: https://t.co/uhDIKridTE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to discuss what to expect from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, why one major tech stock has much broader market implications, and how Darius is navigating these volatile market conditions. You can find more of Darius' work here: https://42macro.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
🔥 THE NEW REAL VISION - join the waitlist https://www.realvision.com/waitlist Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the recent surge in market volatility and what to expect from central banks as the Fed prepares to meet in Jackson Hole. Plus, Imran will share his perspective on what Nvidia's earnings release will mean for the technology sector and the broader market. You can find Imran's Options Academy course here: https://rvtv.io/41Wtu63 And find more of Imran's Trade ideas here: https://www.options-insight.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
🔥 THE NEW REAL VISION - join the waitlist https://www.realvision.com/waitlist Dealing with danger, tragedy, or failure can often cloud our future, making it nearly impossible to predict where the path may lead. The same can apply to life’s highest points. Sa’ad Shah, managing partner and co-founder of Noetic Fund, joins Maggie Lake to share how his life experiences and career journey, both joyous and painful, have brought him to where he is today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
🔥 THE NEW REAL VISION - join the waitlist https://www.realvision.com/waitlist Oil and copper have seen significant upward movement in the last couple of months. This recent price action — coupled with widening energy crack spreads, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed optimism for the Chinese economy — could be a signal of new bull market cycle in commodities. Andreas Steno is joined by the internet’s favorite green chicken, Doomberg, to explore whether the current macro and geopolitical picture favors more upside in commodities — and what that means for the rest of the global economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
🔥 THE NEW REAL VISION - join the waitlist https://www.realvision.com/waitlist David Mattin, founder of the New World Same Humans newsletter, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the AI and super-computing power race between the U.S. and China, its impact on chip manufacturing, and what happens when two AI leaders come together. You can find more of David's work here: https://t.co/XXK68Vk9L9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
🔥 For MarketGauge Trading Strategies with Mish, there’s a 20% discount exclusively for the Real Vision community at https://www.realvision.com/mish Bond yields are surging and U.S. equities dipped again as more uncertainty sets into markets. Michele "Mish" Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge, joins Maggie Lake to discuss what rising bond yields mean for investors across the market landscape, what comes next for stocks and commodities, and why she is taking profits here in the growth and AI stocks. THE NEW REAL VISION - join the waitlist https://www.realvision.com/waitlist 🔥 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄 Newsletter: Understand What’s Moving Markets — In Minutes! http://www.realvision.com/rvdb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jeff Snider, host of Eurodollar University, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the volatility in interest rates, why he sees a nasty global trade recession coming, and the potential repercussions of the ongoing economic turmoil in China. You can find more of Jeff's work here: https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity Also, it's the last day to mint Season 2 of the RV Collective! MINT HERE https://www.realvision.com/collective Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance Tom Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Maggie Lake to discuss why the Fed does not have enough data to decide on a September rate hike, what he sees going on in the energy market, and the challenges and opportunities facing the Technology sector. You can find more of Tom's work here: hedgefundtelemetry.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance U.S. stock averages remain in correction while bonds markets indicate lower prices and higher yields. Steve Miley, chief analyst, COO, and co-founder at TradeDay, joins Maggie Lake for a wide-ranging discussion on equities, bonds, the dollar, commodities, and more. Also, we've just launched Season 2 of the Real Vision Collective! Check it out here: https://www.realvision.com/collective Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance "The Fed is in a monetary conundrum; it has 3 policy options going forward and none of them are good," says EJ Antoni. Ash Bennington welcomes EJ to dive deep into the trap the central bank finds itself in, how it got there, and why history suggests that the U.S. economy may replay the nightmares of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, is renowned for his expertise on balance sheet recessions. He joins Discipline Funds CIO Cullen Roche in this can’t-miss, peer-to-peer review of Koo's economic framework, the impact and efficacy of QE in balance sheet recessions, the potential GDP dominance of emerging economies like China and India, and the possibility of U.S. real estate stagnation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Maggie Lake to discuss this week's economic data, potential challenges facing the tech sector, and the implications of bond market volatility. You can find more of Peter's work here: https://peterboockvar.substack.com Also, we've just launched Season 2 of the Real Vision Collective! Check it out here: https://www.realvision.com/collective Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance Dale Pinkert, head of trader development at TradeGateHub, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the impact of today's U.S. inflation data, explore the U.S. dollar's recent movements, and to help us understand the reasons behind bond market volatility. You can find more of Dale's work here: https://tradegatehub.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX Group, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his "Trampoline Landing" theory, why he sees a second wave of inflation coming, and what's making him so bearish equities. In the second half of the show, Vincent explores whether the U.S. has peaked and where to find value in international investments. You can find more of Vincent's work here: https://marketintel.intlfcstone.com/MIPublic/Landing Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Maggie Lake to discuss what the recent volatility in bonds means for markets, the impact of recent downgrades on the credit rating of several banks, and what investors should expect from this week's inflation data. You can find more of Tony's work here: https://tgmacro.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
SAVE 60% on 3 months of Real Vision Essential 👉 https://realvision.com/last-chance Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the impact of recent economic data on investor confidence, what to expect from CPI data this week, and the likelihood of a recession. You can find more of Neil's work here: https://renmacaccess.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
A look back at where we've come from, and a big update from Raoul on where we're going. Let us know what you think in the comments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
As we move to a world where users begin to own their data, how we leverage it will revolutionize everything. David Mattin, founder of the New World Same Humans newsletter, welcomes data futurist Michael Clark to explore how data will transform markets. Plus, why AI and the augmented world will change life as we know it. Note: This video has been edited from its original live version to clean up some technical issues we encountered during our live session. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap, sits down with Maggie Lake to discuss the mixed data from today's jobs report, current sentiment across assets, and why he thinks now may actually be the time to buy bonds. Also, we've just launched Season 2 of the Real Vision Collective. See what we're up to here: https://www.realvision.com/collective Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, president and founder of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins Maggie Lake to discuss why recent economic data has economists questioning the Fed's policy decisions, and where the central bank’s quest for 2% inflation will land the U.S. economy. You can find more of Sri's work here: https://srikonomics.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake to discuss how cushioned of a landing he thinks the Fed can pull off. Plus, Jim examines the impact of Friday's U.S. jobs data, where oil prices could send inflation, and what the bond market is telling investors.You can find more of Jim's work here: biancoresearch.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Harry Melandri, advisor at MI2 Partners, joins Maggie Lake to discuss two competing fundamental macro stories that are shaping the current landscape, the potential for further Fed interest rate hikes, and the broad impacts of "higher rates for longer."
You can find more of MI2 Partners' work here: https://mi2partners.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by Michael Kao, CEO of Akanthos Capital Management, to explore how much longer the rally in U.S. equities can last, the potential economic impacts of "higher rates for longer,” and look into the ripple effects of the U.S. dollar's wrecking ball. You can find more of Michael's work here: https://t.co/LWqgZ0p4pt Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Slowly but surely, recession calls are being called off by consensus — but is the risk of it still alive? Andreas Steno Larsen dives into the reasons why everyone misunderstood the probabilities of a slowdown. For more access to Andreas’ independent research, there’s a 40% discount exclusively for the Real Vision community using the code RV40 at https://www.realvision.com/steno Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Ollari Consulting founder Christophe Ollari joins Andreas Steno Larsen to update us on his macro view for 2023 and examine current market positioning. They'll discuss whether China is rebounding, Christophe's base case for U.S. and Europe, and where he thinks inflation goes next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, joins Maggie Lake to discuss this week's rate hikes from the ECB and Federal Reserve and the BOJ's yield curve control loosening. Plus, we’ll explore Ben's thesis: "The Great Lag.” You can find more of Ben's work here: https://fundrise.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Cem Karsan, founder of Kia Volatility Advisors, joins Maggie Lake to unravel the market action following strong economic data and Q2 earnings. Cem will also explore what sectors are signaling concern and where he sees opportunity. You can find more of Cem's work here: https://t.co/HwLmOP6aIA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, and Andreas Steno Larsen join Maggie Lake to react to this afternoon's historic interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, explore the potential impact on markets, and look at what it means for the macro landscape going forward. Plus they'll be taking questions from Real Vision members.For more access to Andreas’ independent research, there’s a 40% discount exclusively for the Real Vision community using the code RV40 at Steno Research: https://www.realvision.com/steno If you want to level up or lock in your membership, right this way: https://www.realvision.com/levelup Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, sits down with Maggie Lake to explore today’s price action, the growing impact of AI on markets, and what the recent move in Oil means for the energy sector. You can find more of Tony's work here: https://t.co/yMmmxohxUJ If you want to level up or lock in your membership, right this way: https://www.realvision.com/levelup Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Sam Burns, the chief strategist at Mill Street Research, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the significance of the lineup of central bank rate decisions this week and analyze some recent economic data out of China. Plus, Sam will share which parts of the world he believes are ripe for investment. You can find more of Sam's work here: https://www.millstreetresearch.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Ben Harburg, founder and managing partner at MSA Capital, has been at the intersection of the U.S., China, and emerging markets for years. He joins Maggie Lake to share the highs and lows — and the lessons learned — of a career focused on China tech, Asian private markets, and the Middle East. Join Rick Rule in person at the Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in Florida, July 23-27. Access to industry insiders: elite bullion dealers, gold council members, and uranium pros. In-person and virtual seats available at http://realvision.com/rick Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
With current market conditions signaling potential macro headwinds, it's crucial to fortify your portfolio against negative returns. Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to share how to navigate this inflationary era and mitigate risks associated with historically high valuations. Join Rick Rule in person at the Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in Florida, July 23-27. Access to industry insiders: elite bullion dealers, gold council members, and uranium pros. In-person and virtual seats available at http://realvision.com/rick Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Markets look to end this week on a positive note ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Noelle Acheson, editor of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the price action we saw this week, the implications of a weakening dollar on risk assets, and explore the possibility of a Fed rate hike next week. Plus, we'll dive into what regulation could do for the crypto space. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Tech stocks and bonds take a breather after more strong jobs data and some earnings hiccups. Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap newsletter, joins Maggie Lake to discuss current market sentiment, what his "Old Mom Indicator" says about this rally, and why he’s urging investors to exercise patience as FOMO around this equity rally sets in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Join Raoul Pal for a Q&A session and some post-market drinks. Pour yourself a glass and join Raoul for an update on his current macro thesis and his perspective on current global market conditions. Plus, Raoul will give us a sneak peek at some of the features that have him most excited about the new-look Real Vision. Raoul’s taking questions, so join the live stream to ask yours now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the current market action and why his indicators suggest a widening divergence between fundamentals and reality is underway. Plus, Tom will discuss his bearish case on Tesla, and other trades monitoring in this market. Join Rick Rule in person at The Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in Florida, July 23-27. Access to industry insiders: elite bullion dealers, gold council members, and uranium pros. Special pricing on in-person and virtual seats available at http://realvision.com/rick Also, make sure to check out Raoul's "Past, Present, and Future of Real Vision" video to learn about some big changes coming to the platform: https://rvtv.io/3NZ98To If you want to level up or lock in your membership, right this way: https://realvision.com/levelup Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Dale Pinkert, head of trader development at TradeGateHub, joins Ash Bennington to share his perspective on "the good, the bad, and the ugly" stocks that are driving this equity rally,. Plus, they'll discuss what a falling dollar means for gold, and why Dale remains focused on the Japanese yen.Join Rick Rule at The Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in Boca Raton, Florida, July 23-27. Access to industry insiders: elite bullion dealers, gold council members, and uranium pros. Special pricing on in-person and virtual seats available at http://realvision.com/rickAnd make sure to watch Raoul's "Past, Present, and Future of Real Vision" video to learn about some big changes coming to the platform: https://rvtv.io/3NZ98ToIf you want to level up or lock in your membership, right this way: https://realvision.com/levelup Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Both Raoul and Jordi Visser, president and CIO of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, have embarked on similar journeys, commencing their careers in macro and traditional markets before venturing into the realm of exponential technologies. Together, they delve into the disruptive potential of crypto and emerging tech and shed light on how AI will propel us into a new era at a pace that surpasses our wildest imaginations. Recorded on June 23, 2023. This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
With sustained, blow-out household spending in the Eurozone, inflation can continue for longer than anticipated. Seamus Murphy, founder and managing director of Carraighill, joins Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners to discuss why European banks could outperform asset managers and private equity in this scenario. This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to discuss today's this week's market action, how cooling inflation and strong bank earnings are driving the rally, and the key data points that will drive markets through the rest of the summer. You can find more of Darius' work here: https://42macro.com This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mark Ritchie II, managing partner and CIO of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the encouraging inflation data this week, what it means for the current global macro environment, and whether this rally can breakout further. Plus, Mark will dive into some specific assets he’s monitoring. This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the market reaction to today's CPI report and what we learned about the makeup of U.S. inflation. Plus, in the second half of the show, Mish will zoom in on some specific trading opportunities. Oh, and Raoul Pal will be stopping by with a special message! You can find more of Mish's work here: https://marketgauge.com This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the state of markets on the eve of tomorrow's CPI print. Plus, he'll share his views on the recent oil supply cuts, their implications for energy markets, and other sectors with upside. You can find more of Tony's work here: https://tgmacro.com This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, joins Ash Bennington to discuss how options traders are positioning ahead of the next market event. Plus, he'll share why everyone hates UK assets and the dynamics behind a strengthening yen. This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Andreas Steno Larsen is back to examine what’s happening in commercial real estate, how it ties into the inflation cycle, and what that means for investors. For more access to Andreas’ independent research, there’s a 40% discount exclusively for the Real Vision community using the code RV40 at https://www.realvision.com/steno. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). With U.S. regional banks already having faltered this year, commercial real estate looks like the next pain point as 60% of CRE debt is held by banks. Ash Bennington welcomes Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Earle W. Kazis, and Benjamin Schore professor of real estate at Columbia Business School, to examine the systemic risks CRE poses and what can be done to avoid a crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF, the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF on the market. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Yesterday's ADP private jobs report smashed expectations while today's nonfarm payrolls report fell short for the first time in over a year. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group, joins Ash Bennington to help investors make sense of this divergence and analyze the price action in yields, the U.S. dollar, and the yen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode is sponsored by KraneShares’s KRBN ETF is the 1st, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). New jobs added were more than double expectations in June, according to today's ADP jobs report. Dave Mazza, chief strategy officer at Roundhill Investments, joins Maggie Lake to discuss whether markets will be taking a “well-deserved breather” as we head into the third quarter of this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode is sponsored by KraneShares’s KRBN ETF is the 1st, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Julian Brigden, co-founder and president of MI2 Partners, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market’s reaction to today's June FOMC minutes and explore what may happen with unemployment leading up to the U.S. jobs report on Friday. Plus, Julian will look at the mechanics of the U.S. dollar and discuss its trajectory from here. Want to learn more from Julian? You can reserve your spot at the MI2 Partners Global Macro Summit here: https://mi2partners.com/global-macro-summit-early-bird-rv/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode is sponsored by KraneShares’s KRBN ETF is the 1st, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Ben Harburg, founder, and managing partner at MSA Capital, has been at the intersection of the U.S., China, and emerging markets for years. He joins Maggie Lake to share the highs and lows — and the lessons learned — of a career focused on China tech, Asian private markets, and the Middle East. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode is sponsored by KraneShares KRBN ETF is the first, largest, and most liquid carbon ETF. Please read the prospectus before investing at https://kraneshares.com/KRBN/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO).
On today's special Daily Briefing, we hear from Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners in a segment from their monthly Pro Macro Insider Talks series. Then we jump to Buy-side Meets Sell-side to hear Andreas Steno Larsen and Jonathan Cohen discuss how to pick the best stocks to benefit from the AI revolution. Please enjoy this peek behind the Real Vision curtain. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
For the Festival of Learning: AI Edition, we've got a long-awaited "Round 2" of our 2020 conversation between Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, and NYU business professor and SCT Capital Management founder Vasant Dhar. They return to chat with Ash Bennington about the intersection of machine learning with markets, and how the current AI revolution is changing (or not...!) the game.
Not a member yet? Get access today at realvision.com/pricing Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Previously, Mikhail Voloshin, CEO and principal engineer of Mighty Data, Inc., provided an in-depth demo on how ChatGPT works. For day 7 of the Festival of Learning: AI Edition, he’s back to address some of the myths popping up around it and how GPT and large language models (LLMs) actually work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap newsletter, to discuss the current equity rally, how sentiment has shifted, the state of commercial real estate and regional banks, and where he spots a value opportunity.You can find more of Jared's work here: https://www.dailydirtnap.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by former senior Fed trader and principal of FedGuy.com, Joseph Wang, to discuss whether the top is in for equities this year, the likelihood of a recession, and where 10-year Treasury yields could go next. You can find more of Joseph's work here: https://fedguy.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by former senior Fed trader and principal of FedGuy.com, Joseph Wang, to discuss whether the top is in for equities this year, the likelihood of a recession, and where 10-year Treasury yields could go next. You can find more of Joseph's work here: https://fedguy.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by Spectra Markets president Brent Donnelly to discuss the market’s reaction to some strong economic data, hawkish (or not…?) comments from global central bankers, and why yields will impact the trajectory of the U.S. dollar. In the second half of today’s show, Brent will explore risk management and highlight key factors to watch in various asset classes. You can find more of Brent's work here: https://t.co/uhDIKridTE Join Rick Rule in person at The Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in Florida, July 23-27. Access to industry insiders: elite bullion dealers, gold council members, and uranium pros. Special early bird pricing on in-person and virtual seats until June 30 at http://realvision.com/rick Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, to explore where we are in the commodity super cycle and help explain how to strategically position yourself in the back half of 2023.Join Rick Rule in person at the Rick Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in Florida, July 23-27. Access to industry insiders: elite bullion dealers, gold council members, and uranium pros. Special early bird pricing on in-person and virtual seats until June 30 at http://realvision.com/rick Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, to help us understand the news out of Russia, the implications could be for Vladimir Putin's regime, and how this impacts China and the rest of the world. You can find more of Marko's work here: https://www.clocktowergroup.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
On the fifth day of the Festival of Learning: AI Edition, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, and Raoul Pal come together, focusing on how AI is about to majorly upend everything we know. Learn from them why you should consider “investing in your own demise," how entrepreneurship could be the key in the age of AI, and so much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners welcomes Osman Ozsan, CEO and CIO of Deuterium Capital Management, to explore the assets and sectors he's targeting, such as energy commodities, the yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, and AI tech. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Sam Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, joins Maggie Lake to explore the driving forces behind this week’s equity market action and discuss whether we’ve reached a turning point. Plus, Sam will share his thoughts on the metals space, food commodities, and why stagflation looks to be taking hold in the services economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jon Mawby, co-head of absolute and total return credit at Pictet Asset Management, joins Maggie Lake to examine what made the Bank of England up the ante, the driving forces behind stubborn UK inflation, and why central banks' interest rate decisions are starting to diverge from their battle versus prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, joins Maggie Lake to explain how the rare weather pattern known as El Niño has the potential to spark food shortages, power blackouts, and dangerous weather that will impact commodities from agriculture to energy. In the second half, we’ll explore strategies to prepare your portfolio in anticipation of this shift.You can find more of Shawn's work here: https://t.co/0DotA5OXYq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Warren Pies, co-founder and strategist of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake to explore why recent housing data might be pointing to a soft landing, what that means for the Fed's battle against inflation, and when the next recession could arrive. You can find more of Warren's work here: https://t.co/vM9jt9PPQe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Welcome to the first episode of the Festival of Learning: AI Edition, with Peter Diamandis, founder and executive chairman of XPRIZE Foundation, and Salim Ismail, Exponential Organizations author. From the five stages of grief Fortune 500 companies are going through to why we have to unlearn “50 years of Harvard MBA thinking,” Peter and Salim present an exciting yet terrifying vision of what’s in store for corporate America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The tightness in the labor market has, in part, been due to the inflation-adjusted price of labor in the last couple of years. With U.S. inflation decelerating, Andreas analyzes if there is now a risk of rising unemployment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jeffrey Snider, host of Eurodollar University, joins Raoul to examine the current state of the Eurodollar market, weaving together a cohesive narrative of why it matters to the most pressing issues investors face right now. Recorded on May 22, 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The U.S. economy continues to show its resilience as more economic data rolls in. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to examine this week's most important economic data, explore what's propping up the U.S. consumer, and analyze the dynamics of stubborn inflation. Is all of this pointing us towards another Fed rate hike in July? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Stocks rally and rates drop as investors wonder what the Fed can do from here.
Jeremy Schwartz, global CIO at WisdomTree Asset Management, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the implications of yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rate pause, the resiliency of the U.S. economy, whether we're seeing softening in the labor market, and where investors can find opportunities in these tricky markets.
You can find more of Jeremy's work here: https://www.wisdomtree.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake to break down the market's response to the Fed pausing rate hikes, decipher bearish sentiment in the bond market, and discuss the role of yesterday's CPI print. In the second half of today's show, Jim Bianco will explain to us the key drivers behind the current Fed policy — and what it means for investors. You can find more of Jim's work here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/visitor-home/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge, joins Ash Bennington to discuss the market's response to today's inflation data, the AI-powered tech rally, whether we're seeing signs of exhaustion in equities ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. You can find more of Mish's work here: https://www.youtube.com/@marketgauge Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by Dale Pinkert, trading coach at TradeGateHub, to discuss whether the ongoing bull run in stocks can sustain momentum. Is it time for investors to secure profits ahead of tomorrow’s May CPI report and the Fed's interest rate decision? You can find more of Dale's work here: https://www.youtube.com/@TradeGateHub Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode of the Real Vision Daily Briefing was sponsored by Kalshi. Take a position on whether the US debt ceiling will be raised, or whether the Fed will hike rates. Sign up at kalshi.com/realvision now to claim $15 towards your first event contract, today. How can we think about money and finances in a smart, responsible way? Join Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, and Real Vision’s Maggie Lake as they delve into this subject and answer viewer questions from this Festival Of Learning special. Recorded on Thursday, March 30, 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode of the Real Vision Daily Briefing was sponsored by Kalshi. Take a position on whether the US debt ceiling will be raised, or whether the Fed will hike rates. Sign up at kalshi.com/realvision now to claim $15 towards your first event contract, today. We're thrilled to welcome legendary investor Jim Rogers back to Real Vision for the first time since 2021. He joins Maggie Lake for a deep-dive conversation on what's on his radar now, and what could unfold next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Maggie Lake is joined by Noelle Acheson, editor of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, to discuss what investors need to watch ahead of next week's Fed interest rate decision and how that will move markets. Plus, Noelle explores the rise of AI as a venture capital darling, and AI's impact on the next wave of Web3 funding.You can find more of Noelle's work here: https://noelleacheson.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap newsletter, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the resilient U.S. economy, the recession in Europe, what's causing stocks to push higher, and how these developments will influence Fed decision-making on interest rates next week. You can find more of Jared's work here: https://wggtb.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, sits down with Maggie Lake to discuss the Bank of Canada's historic rate hike, what it could mean for the next Fed decision, and why the bond market is sending a very different message from equities. In the second half of today's extended show, we'll dive into the current market risks and how investors can protect themselves. You can find more of Dr. Sri-Kumar's work here: https://t.co/ozsbAS3qSB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
This episode of the Real Vision Daily Briefing was sponsored by Kalshi. Take a position on whether the US debt ceiling will be raised, or whether the Fed will hike rates. Sign up at kalshi.com/realvision now to claim $15 towards your first event contract, today. Maggie Lake is joined by Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, and David Mattin, founder of the New World Same Humans newsletter, to explore AI's potential benefits and drawbacks as it reshapes countless industries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
It’s already been a tough, strange 11 months for everyone – and 2022’s not over yet. On a weekly interval basis, the S&P 500 has been in the red for more than 60% of the year. Treasuries have gone through multiple, nasty downturns and haven’t exactly performed counter to traditional risk assets. How much longer will this bear last? Are there any signs of hope? Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Tidal Investment Group and the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Harry Melandri to break it all down on another fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog, has been investing for more than two decades. You don’t survive that long in financial markets without accruing some success. Kuppy joins Maggie Lake to discuss his approach to trend-following and event-driven investing, with illustrations from the early days of COVID-19 about minimizing risk and maximizing profit.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Equity futures sagged this morning with the release of a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for November, as both the pace of new hiring and wage growth suggested inflation is more than a matter of snarled supply chains and a European war. Cem Karsan, the founder of Kai Volatility Advisors, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the implications of persistent U.S. labor market strength. We also hear from Whitney Baker on why a recession is the only thing that will stunt consumption and thus slow inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Whitney Baker here: rvtv.io/3VIFnbU.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity declined for the fifth month out of the last six in November and slipped below 50 for the first time since May 2020, another sign that growth is slowing in the U.S. As investors look forward to Friday’s jobs report, initial claims for unemployment insurance reached 1.6 million during the week ended Nov. 19, the highest level in a year. Weston Nakamura welcomes Daniel Lacalle, the chief economist at Tressis, to talk about growth in the U.S. and abroad as central bankers continue to strike appropriate policy responses. We also hear from Geo Chen, the author of the Fidenza Macro blog, who explains why whoever replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the governor of the Bank of Japan will be forced to hike rates sooner rather than later. Watch Geo Chen’s full presentation here: https://rvtv.io/3H0XR36. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes surged into positive territory as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday on his acknowledgement that the “time for moderating” interest-rate increases “may come as soon as December.” The market seized on the step-down from 75 basis points to 50 rather than Powell’s codicils: the rate peak is likely “somewhat higher” than the Fed’s September forecast, and there’s a long way to go to restore price stability. In addition to more restrictive monetary policy, Powell noted the critical importance of labor market balance among the macro conditions the Fed wants to see before it’ll say inflation is whipped. Dave Lauer, the CEO of Urvin Finance, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the market’s reaction to Powell’s speech, recent economic data, and the implications of a “sustained period of below-trend growth” that gets us back to price stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura visits the WTFinance podcast to share with host Anthony Fatseas his unconventional path to a career in markets and to explain his unique methods of analyzing price action. Weston and Anthony also talk about why the Bank of Japan is the most influential central bank of our time and a potential catalyst for further bond market volatility. Watch the video at https://www.youtube.com/@WTFinancepodcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equities were mixed-to-negative heading into Tuesday’s close, as investors remain cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the November jobs report. Chinese authorities seem to have stifled “Zero COVID” protests, as concerns about growth in the world’s second-largest economy persist. Crude oil prices have stabilized today, with the generic front-month futures contract trading around the historically significant $75 per barrel level. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action, the energy trade, and why in the world the Netherlands has agreed to basically destroy 3,000 working farms and what impact the move will have on global food markets. We also hear from Real Vision macro analyst Michael Coolbaugh, who makes the bearish case for crude oil heading into 2023. Watch the entire conversation between Michael Coolbaugh and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3Uc9uHr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China’s continuing struggle with COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment ahead of Monday’s open. All three major U.S. equity indexes were down more than 1% heading into the close, while investors sought safety in government bonds. Already skeptical of the recent rally, in his most recent research note Tavi Costa shared ample evidence a recession is imminent. Tavi, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the global implications of growing domestic unrest over China’s lockdowns, to explain why we should be paying attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and to identify a potentially highly profitable macro trade for the next two years. We also hear from Victor Shih about the future of China’s relationship with the rest of the world. Watch the full conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here: rvtv.io/3W0wYBt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Markets held modest gains late Wednesday, as minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee suggest monetary tightening will continue, though at a less intense pace, and the policy interest rate may even reach a higher terminal level than initially forecast. That’s as more and more indicators point to slowing growth in the U.S. At the same time, data from Europe suggest things may not be as dire as once feared. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central bankers, markets, and the economy (perhaps a little World Cup, too) in the middle of a holiday-shortened trading week in the U.S. Andreas and Weston assess near-term price action in the broader macro context — and separate the hawks from the doves just ahead of Turkey Day. We also hear from Jamie McDonald about position-sizing, portfolio management, and the importance of process in a complex macro environment. Watch the complete “We Got the Message” episode featuring Jamie McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3F5TtPj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
All three major U.S. equity indexes were up about 1% heading into Tuesday’s close, rallying on light volume as investors look forward to a long holiday weekend with hope the Federal Reserve will soon ease off the monetary tightening. That’s even with sentiment indicators like the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showing a base-case expectation for “stagflation.” Maggie Lake welcomes Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian to the Daily Briefing to talk about what key markets are telling us heading into the end of the year and how the Fed is likely to handle recent softer inflation data. And Andy Constan, the CEO of Damped Spring, explains the two ways central bankers can really kill inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andy Constan and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3TXQsEA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It’s a Thanksgiving-abbreviated trading week in the U.S., but there’s no lack of compelling evidence to sift this Monday. Stocks were mixed two hours ahead of the close, but long-duration Treasury yields had sent a decidedly risk-off message on signs the domestic economy is slowing. Crude oil prices reached lows not seen since January, with OPEC denying reports it will discuss production increases when it meets in December. And we’ll have more insight on central bank thinking when minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday. Greg Weldon, the CEO of Weldon Financial, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what a re-assertion of dollar strength means for the market right now. We also hear from Michael Gayed about the implications of falling U.S. Treasury yields in an excerpt from the October 28 Daily Briefing. Watch the full conversation between Michael Gayed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: rvtv.io/3VizvWO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar founded macroeconomic consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies to advise multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on risk and opportunity around the world. Sri joins Harry Melandri to explain why China’s global ambitions represent a major macro risk and, at the same time, how emerging markets have never had more potential for growth. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Todd Edgar was once one of Wall Street’s star proprietary traders. Before he started Atreaus Family in 2019, he worked for some of the biggest houses in investment banking. In this episode of My Life In Four Trades, Todd shares the critical lessons he’s learned over nearly three decades in financial markets, explaining to Maggie Lake how “naïve optimism” helped shape his entrepreneurial mindset and why embracing lifelong learning is the key to success. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflation is going to decelerate quickly over the coming year, there are still risks that could resurrect the beast.” Is the U.S. leading the way lower, or will inflation flare again? Warren joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why bonds are the place to be and equities are at the top end of their range. We also hear from Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, about the ongoing transition from a lower-for-longer to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Watch the full conversation between Kokou Agbo-Bloua and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3UPnZSG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked and equity indexes sagged Thursday, as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control. That follows San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s remark on Wednesday that a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Meanwhile, the United Nations has brokered a deal that will get Ukrainian grain transiting the Black Sea safely, easing pressure on global food prices, and China’s COVID policy remains as opaque as ever. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, to interpret recent Fedspeak and to talk about what’s happening in commodities markets. We also hear from Juliette Declercq about how the Federal Reserve can navigate a soft landing and why she’s focused on U.S. equities. Watch the full conversation between Juliette Declercq and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3AoHkSt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. retail sales were up more than expected in October, posting the biggest month-over-month gain since February, but equity indexes struggled after Target posted disappointing third-quarter results and warned of a soft fourth quarter too. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield declined, though the two-year/10-year curve inversion deepened on expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary course. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool currently shows 4.4% fourth-quarter growth. Marc Chandler, the managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex would take issue with that forecast: “The US economy is expected to struggle under the weight of past monetary tightening,” he notes, “and what we do not appreciate is the extent of fiscal tightening.” Marc joins Maggie Lake to talk about the big picture, how it’s reflected in currency pairs and global yields, what we should expect from the Federal Reserve, and why we should be skeptical of China. We also hear from Roger Hirst about the broader implications of a dollar pull-back. Watch the full Insider Talks episode featuring Roger Hirst here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index data for October reinforced the hope that inflationary pressures are finally beginning to ease and fired a strong open for equities Tuesday morning. “Be patient,” advises Dale Pinkert, “and wait for pullbacks.” Pinkert, the head of trader development at TradeGateHub, joins Maggie Lake to talk about whether the trend has changed for the U.S. dollar and key levels to watch for the euro, precious metals, and soft commodities. We also hear from Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group about the technical indicators that guide his trading day. Watch the full conversation between Dave Floyd and James Helliwell here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes drifted into mildly positive territory two hours shy of Monday’s close, continuing to digest October’s Consumer Price Index data, relatively dovish words from Federal Reserve insiders, and the still-unraveling FTX situation. With inflation seeming to ebb as a global concern, President Joe Biden is in Bali for his first face-to-face meeting with President Xi Jinping. “I continue to maintain that China is a significant risk for global investors,” notes Komal Sri-Kumar. “That goes for both investors in that country as well as for global markets in general.” The founder and president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies joins Weston Nakamura to talk about consequences of too-rapid a transition from overly accommodative to overly restrictive monetary policy and what comes next for the economy. We also hear from performance coach Denise Shull of The Rethink Group about how to manage emotion and maximize effective decision-making in high-stress situations. Watch the full conversation between Denise Shull and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3E4p2XT. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Justin Huhn, the founder of Uranium Insider, joins Harry Melandri for a compelling conversation about the resurgence of nuclear as a baseload power option and rising demand for uranium in the latest episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Anthony Scaramucci has worked in two of the most pressure-driven environments in America – investment banking at Goldman Sachs and the communications shop in the White House during the Trump administration. And he’s seen and experienced all sorts of success and failure. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, the founder and co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital and chairman of the SALT Conference shares with Maggie Lake how his humble upbringing shaped his career and what it taught him about the value of authenticity. NOTE - This interview was recorded on October 10th, 2022 Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It appears that inflation finally eased last month, as the rate of underlying price increases excluding energy and food slowed from a 40-year high. And U.S. stocks are staging their biggest rally since 2020. Weston Nakamura welcomes Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to break down October Consumer Price Index data and provide some context for today’s “melt-up.” Then, Weston and CrossBorder Capital CEO Michael Howell assess the broader investing climate, including the key issue driving price action: liquidity. “The next few months will be challenging,” Howell wrote in his most recent note to clients, “as recession hits earnings and central banks raise rates further.” Michael and Ash Bennington discuss “Everything You Need To Know About Liquidity” here: rvtv.io/3Eo5wah. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in U.S. dollars,” notes Darius Dale at the top of a recent tweet-thread explaining specifically what’s happening with crippled crypto exchange FTX and generally what happens during liquidity crunches. Meanwhile, Chinese economic data continue to deteriorate, despite low interest rates and high savings rates. Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura welcomes Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the contagion potential of the FTX debacle, China’s liquidity trap, the global macro environment, and actionable signals on today’s Daily Briefing. We also share a clip from Jim Bianco’s appearance on today’s Real Vision Crypto Daily Briefing about the still-developing FTX story, with an emphasis on trust and centralization versus decentralization. Check out today’s Crypto Daily Briefing here: https://rvtv.io/3thr8yt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes surged early on Election Day but sagged heading into the last two hours of trading, rising perhaps in anticipation of a market-friendly divided government in Washington D.C. Gold rallied as well, a sign that investors may have some concerns about Republican promises to hold the line against future debt-ceiling increases without cuts to entitlement programs. And then there’s the fact that the second-largest crypto exchange in the world teetered on the edge of collapse before being rescued by its main competitor – is this a sign that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s aims are coming true? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Jared Dillian, the editor of the Daily Dirtnap, to sort out today’s price action. And Ash Bennington joins the conversation for an update on Binance’s acquisition of FTX. Be sure to watch today’s Real Vision Crypto Daily Briefing here: https://rvtv.io/ftxbinance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes held modest gains at midday Monday, as investors prepare for midterm elections with particularly global potential consequences. Andreas Sten Larsen goes around the world with Jacob Shapiro, the founder and chief strategist at Perch Perspectives, for briefings on the major geopolitical issues and their impact on financial markets, including Europe’s energy crisis, China’s reopening, and America’s elections. We also hear from Alexander Stahel, the founder and chief investment officer of Burggraben Holding AG, about the multiple challenges that will combine to extend Europe’s energy crisis into and beyond 2023. Watch the full conversation featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3WzREk0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Luke Gromen, the founder and president of Forest for the Trees, is a highly respected voice in the global macroeconomic research community. Luke joins Harry Melandri to explain why he’s long energy. He also talks about major shifts in global trade and volatility in the sovereign debt market on another captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chris Sullivan, a portfolio manager of Hyperion Decimus, transitioned from traditional finance to crypto – and he says it’s the best move of his career. A lot of that has to do with crypto’s freek-market system, where bailouts are not an option. Chris explains how that cutthroat culture has attracted – and continues to attract – some of the best minds in the world. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. stocks opened higher but drifted lower through the trading day, digesting an October nonfarm payrolls report that showed a still-strong labor market in the aftermath of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s forceful rejection of “pivot” talk earlier this week and ahead of crucial midterm elections next week. Traders are now pricing in a 5.25% peak policy rate via the June 2023 swap contract. “I don’t think this changes anything in the Fed’s calculation,” noted Peter Boockvar in response to the jobs report, “but I do believe the trend in the unemployment rate is now going higher and will be 4%-plus soon.” Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakly Advisory Group, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about when the Fed might finally change, or at least pause, its current policy path and the implications of Tuesday’s voting in the U.S. We also hear from Alexander Stahel about why U.S. immunity to the global energy crisis is an illusion. Watch the full conversation featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3WzREk0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, and Chair Jerome Powell aggressively pushed back against any thoughts of a “pivot.” Today, the Bank of England followed the Fed with its own 75-basis-point rate hike, even as it warned what would be the country’s longest recession ever has already started and will continue through 2023 and into 2024. The dollar is strengthening against the pound again, though the prospect of a “soft landing” stateside seems to be growing more and more remote. “The world is confronted with many new threats,” writes Vincent Deluard in his most recent newsletter, “and the next twelve months feel abnormally uncertain.” Deluard, the Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stone X, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent moves by central banks, his 2023 outlook, and his “Holy Trinity” picks for this market. We also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen about the natural gas supply situation in Europe this heating season and, more importantly, next winter. Watch the complete conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3DCRpvQ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Open Market Committee added a couple of interesting phrases to its policy statement announcing a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate increase, noting that it will take into account time lags and the impact of cumulative tightening during future meetings. In his post-FOMC-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the centrality of price stability to sustained economic growth, acknowledged data indicating the U.S. economy is slowing, and noted the continuing strength of a still “out-of-balance” labor market. George Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about whether the FOMC statement was neutral, hawkish, or dovish, overall liquidity heading into the end of the year, and why we need to keep an eye on overseas markets. We also hear from Jesse Felder, the author of The Felder Report, about why we face a period of elevated inflation and what investments will work in such an environment. Watch the full interview between Jesse Felder and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-inflation/videos/there-wont-be-a-crash-but-drpj?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chinese stocks and the yuan rallied on unconfirmed reports authorities have formed a committee to reconsider China’s “COVID zero” restrictions on economic activity. There was no follow-through in the U.S., though, as investors remain focused on Wednesday and the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy decision. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what impact a reopening of the Chinese economy China will have on global commodity markets and how to position for potential upside. We also hear from Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report, about how changing investment patterns will impact the technology and energy sectors. Watch the full interview between Jesse Felder and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-inflation/videos/there-wont-be-a-crash-but-drpj?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“This should be fun,” tweeted Doomberg amid reports President Joe Biden will propose a “windfall tax” on profits of oil and gas producers, as political leaders continue to pose against the global energy problem. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes the congenitally acerbic and always insightful Green Chicken for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about realistic solutions to a situation that only seems to be growing worse by the day – with inflation yet to peak and still more resource-scarcity promised by Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. We also hear from White Tundra Investments CEO Shubham Garg, who shares his reasoning for exponential growth in global oil demand. Watch Shubham Garg’s complete presentation here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/3-ideas/videos/where-to-pick-in-canadas-energy-patch-LwzQ?tab=details. THIS IS THE FINAL DAY OF REAL VISION’S “CRASH CAMPAIGN” DISCOUNTS! Head over to www.realvision.com/crashpricing to subscribe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Which economic indicator is the most reliable for confirming we’re in a crisis? According to Verdad Capital founder and portfolio manager Dan Rasmussen, it’s high-yield spreads. Identifying the key relationships across the globe isn’t hard. Formulating an approach that surfaces alpha when spreads spike is where it gets difficult. Per Rasmussen, the best way to act in such environments is through small-value equities. Rasmussen explains why it makes sense and how to time the trade in a captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Born into a family of cotton traders, Alexander Stahel is a natural when it comes to commodities. Alexander grew up in Switzerland before he migrated to the U.K. to begin an investment banking career. Now the chief investment officer at Burggraben Holding, the Zug, Switzerland-based firm he founded, he’s focused on finding great value in a few public and private companies. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, Alexander explains why – just like golf – trading is not a “perfect” game. He also talks about how to avoid blind spots and shares his forecast for the energy space. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks surged into the weekend, with all three major U.S. equity indexes up more than 2% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. “The market isn't rallying on hopes of a pivot,” tweeted Michael Gayed. “It's rallying on bond-market stabilization.” Michael, the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to elaborate on his contrarian “melt-up” thesis and to talk about sentiment and other technical factors such as breadth and seasonality. “I don’t believe the end of the world is here,” Michael added. “This year, the market has conditioned people to think it will do nothing but go lower.” We also share a preview of “the most important interview in the history of Real Vision,” as Raoul Pal put it, featuring Emad Mostaque and his vision of artificial intelligence of, by, and for the people. Watch the full conversation between Emad Mostaque and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3SGhTSU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The European Central Bank announced a second 75-basis-point interest-rate increase in as many months on Thursday, meeting economists’ expectations with inflation riding at a record-high 9.9%. The euro weakened against the dollar, even as Treasury yields softened, as investor concern about future growth seems to be intensifying. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.6% during the third quarter. Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura joins Maggie Lake live in Real Vision’s New York studio for a special edition of the Daily Briefing to talk about the new “widow-maker” trade and the dilemma central bankers face, illustrated by the Bank of Japan’s money-printing into the Ministry of Finance’s yen-buying. Weston discusses in greater depth the emerging conflicts between governments and their central banks here: https://rvtv.io/3DhzACD. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More central banks are signaling turns away from tightening as concerns about growth have begun to overwhelm fears of inflation, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy rate by a smaller-than-expected 50 basis points today. It’s notable that the Canadian dollar rallied against the U.S. dollar. On the fiscal front, Japan has prepared a 67.1 trillion yen stimulus package. Oh, and Google’s and Microsoft’s earnings reports are dragging the Nasdaq Composite toward a 2% loss. When he last visited the Daily Briefing, Darius Dale pointed out that there’s no recession until we see an inversion of the three-month/10-year yield curve – well, it was very small, but that did happen yesterday. So, what now? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about all that and more. We also hear from Lee Robinson about Jerome Powell’s sensitivity to Paul Volcker’s record on fighting inflation. Watch the full conversation featuring Lee Robinson and Nick Lawson here: https://rvtv.io/3FifJWE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“Markets are rallying right now based on a massive overshoot in technicals and sentiment,” explained Mark Ritchie II in a note today. “The bears overplayed their hand, and the bulls are trying to push back.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the factors driving this equity rally, whether it’s durable, what the Federal Reserve will do from here. “The market is trying to look through to the end of the Fed tightening cycle,” Ritchie II added, “and that’s the $64 million question.” We also hear from Lee Robinson about the emergence of “so many interesting distressed ideas” amid ongoing market turmoil. Watch the full conversation featuring Lee Robinson and Nick Lawson here: https://rvtv.io/3FifJWE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
President Xi Jinping strengthened his hold on power and took definitive steps to reverse a half-century of open relations with the West at last weekend’s National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, triggering a steep sell-off of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. The major equity indexes were all well in the green through midday – “Powder dry kind of day… yields up, VIX up, dollar steady – action sloppy,” is how Michele “Mish” Schneider, the Director of Trading Research and Education at MarketGauge.com, described it on Twitter. Maggie Lake welcomes Mish for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what she’s looking at as earnings season kicks into high gear, inflation, commodities, and the dollar. We also hear from Victor Shih on President Xi Jinping’s motivation for closing China. Watch the complete conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here:https://rvtv.io/3gFAdOR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, Jeff Dorman, a co-founder and the chief investment officer of Arca, gets personal with Maggie Lake. Jeff explains why he quit traditional finance, shares the lessons he had to learn and unlearn after years of working on Wall Street, and talks about how he’s become a calculated risk-taker. After trading at leading TradFi firms such as Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Citadel, Jeff moved to Los Angeles for a new blockchain-powered career and to find a work-life balance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The market is all set for a 75-basis-point rate-hike in November, though San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stoked an equity rally on Friday when she said the central bank should try to avoid an “unforced downturn” by over-tightening. The U.S. dollar softened against major currency pairs, including the Japanese yen in spectacular fashion, and Treasury yields also declined. Saudi Arabia and China are forging new ties over crude oil, as the geopolitical-macroeconomic landscape continues to shift. Ash Bennington welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about what the Fed will look at as it determines policy from here, the key factors driving inflation right now, and the state of the global energy market. We also hear from Victor Shih about China’s priorities for the next five years and its changing position in the global economy. Be sure to tune in on Monday, October 24th to watch the conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a fresh cycle high of 4.18% on Thursday, as stocks struggled to hold gains amid more hawkish talk from Federal Reserve officials about inflation. Across the pond, the British pound has returned to pre-mini-budget level, the gilt market has calmed, and Liz Truss has resigned as the shortest-serving Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in history. And Elon Musk might someday own Twitter, but his electric car business posted weak earnings. Tom Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how he’s approaching the markets these days, the bullish pattern developing in crude oil, and Tesla’s disappointing quarter. We also hear from Christopher Dembik about the U.K.’s devolution into an emerging market. Watch Ash Bennington’s full interview with Christopher Dembik here: https://rvtv.io/3CINMEc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday, as investors priced in the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish policy stancy until there are meaningful signs of an easing in core inflation. The impact of higher interest rates is already being felt in key areas of the economy, such as the U.S. home mortgage market, where applications for both new purchases and refinancing have plummeted and builder sentiment has sagged to 25-year lows. Inflation in the U.K., meanwhile, reached its own 40-year peak, up 10.1% from a year ago. “King Dollar ... Reign of Terror!!” is the headline on Greg Weldon’s latest market commentary, and he has a point. Weldon, the CEO of Weldon Financial, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the effects of a strong U.S. dollar on markets. We also hear from David Rosenberg about the down-the-line impact of the Fed’s massive liquidity withdrawal and what we could be facing come 2023. Watch the full conversation between David Rosenberg and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-essential-conversation/videos/forewarned-is-forearmed-reflecting-on-black-monday-0aOg?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 1% through midday Tuesday, as energy stocks hit a 52-week high relative to crude oil futures. That’s a data point Maggie Lake is sure to raise with Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, during today’s Daily Briefing, with reports that President Joe Biden is considering further sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to offset critical supply shortages. Meanwhile, the Bank of England denied a Financial Times report that the central bank would delay its program of gilt sales, as fragmentation of monetary policy in response to economic pressures continues to roil bond and forex markets. Maggie and Tony will also talk about commodities, positioning, and the broader market trend. We also hear from Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden on the state of the real estate market. Pro Macro subscribers can watch the complete Insider Talks featuring Raoul and Julian here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/insider-talks/videos/macro-pro-insider-talks-october-2022-live-mXN3?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“The U.S. Dollar Index is on the verge of actually looking weaker,” noted Dave Floyd around midday today. “Key levels are 112.50 and 112.21. A close below here and we’re looking at 109.64.” Is the prospect of a softer dollar sufficient to explain a near-4% rally for the Nasdaq Composite, a 3% gain for the S&P 500, and a 2% rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Dave, the founder of Aspen Trading, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about today’s rally and what’s driving it, how he traded it, and using tools such as position-sizing to manage risk in a volatile market. We also hear from Brent Johnson about his “dollar milkshake” theory. Watch the full conversation featuring Brent Johnson and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3gfDdkq. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Warren Mosler, an American economist and entrepreneur, is perhaps the leading proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). But what is MMT? And how can it help us understand what’s happening at a macro level right now? Mosler explains it all to Harry Melandri on another riveting episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
There’s nothing ordinary about Bill Browder’s life. After earning an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 1989, he moved to Russia with the intention of becoming the “biggest capitalist in Eastern Europe.” Bill’s dream manifested with the opening of the Hermitage Fund, which became the best-performing hedge fund in the world. In this captivating episode of My Life in Four Trades, the venture capitalist turned political activist joins Maggie Lake to share the distinct highlights and harrowing downsides to his success: taking on and taking down business oligarchs of the old Soviet republics, the tragic death of his lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, and his emergence as Vladimir Putin’s No. 1 enemy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The situation in the U.K. is going from bad to worse, with Prime Minister Liz Truss now in danger of losing her own job after firing her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and short-circuiting her own economic package mere weeks into her tenure. U.S. equities drifted lower Friday in the aftermath of Thursday’s historic reversal, as retail sales for September stagnated due to the effects of inflation. But the issue is the U.K. What the heck is going on? And is it merely the first sign of a major global economic crisis? Jim Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Ash Bennington to talk about the wild price action in U.S. equities, the sacking of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and, as we head into the weekend, what to expect from traditional markets on Monday. And be sure to check out Real Vision’s newest series, The Collectors where we’ll emphasize the fun and the adventure of deploying your hard-earned money! You can watch the first episode here: https://rvtv.io/3ToL7Gu. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Co-Founder & CEO, Raoul Pal, answers the internets questions and covers everything from macro & crypto to wine, scuba diving, food and art! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Within three hours today, S&P 500 futures swung from a 3.9% decline to a 3.9% rally. “It's pretty incredible,” tweeted Jared Dillian shortly after noon, “to watch people get fooled by the market over and over again. It's not hard – when there's no one left to sell, they cover.” Weston Nakamura has a more global perspective on the reversal, noting that the U.K. and the pound as well as Japan and the yen still linger as potential crisis points. Jared raised an interesting point in today’s edition of The Daily Dirtnap: that we’re in “a bubble of bearish sentiment.” Weston and Jared join Maggie Lake to talk about the significance of today’s price action. The violent reversal was surely concerning, hardly the sign of a healthy market. Jared, Weston, and Maggie unpack the reaction to the most recent U.S. inflation data and what it means for central bankers and global financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Producer Price Index for September came in hotter than expected, as investors brace for the Thursday morning release of Consumer Price Index data. Minutes to the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee reveal a central bank as determined as ever to “stay the course” toward “restrictive rates in the near term.” With cracks in the global financial system getting bigger by the day, Maggie Lake welcomes Cem Karsan, the founder of Aegea Capital Management, to talk about the significance of the monetary regime change and to answer one simple question: How do we play this volatility? We also hear from ZipRecruiter.com Chief Economist Julia Pollak about the enduring strength of the U.S. labor market. Watch the full conversion between Julia Pollak and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3MoBEwJ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Bank of England intervened in the U.K gilt market for the second time in two days Tuesday, with the following warning: "Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing 'fire sale' dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability." Real Vision Macro Analyst James Helliwell joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the BofE’s latest move and what kind of signal it is for a global financial system where conditions are already tight and tense. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecast on inflation’s negative effects, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s broad-based slowdown. Maggie welcomes Komal Sri-Kumar, the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, for a discussion of central bank policy and where there may be opportunities for investors who aren’t distracted by a hawkish Federal Reserve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks opened to the downside but trended higher throughout the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking into positive territory in the early afternoon, as investors prepare for Thursday morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for September. The up-and-down action surely reflects confusion: Market internals and sentiment data are actually bullish, but policymakers are raising the degree of difficulty. “In normal times,” writes Geo Chen in his most recent Substack post, “trading global macro is like playing 5-dimensional chess, which is hard enough. Today, with the added variables of geopolitics and central bankers on a mission, we are playing 10-dimensional chess.” Geo, the editor of Fidenza Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what markets are telling us. We also hear from George Whitehead about what might make the Federal Reserve lift its foot from the monetary tightening brake. Watch the full conversation featuring George Whitehead and Larry McDonald here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-geopolitics/videos/london-calling-what-will-break-next-vxN2?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In Jeff Booth’s eyes, money is just information, and we desire the feeling we get when we have more of it. It’s also why, according to Booth, that money is being manipulated by central banks at an unprecedented rate to avoid a collapse in the credit system. So, how do we make things better? There is no perfect solution. But Booth sees a clear favorite, capable of delivering inordinate societal value. The popular author and serial entrepreneur joins Harry Melandri to talk about Bitcoin’s potential – noting that network effects are only making the world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency stronger over time. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
KPTL Arbitrage Management is one of the few crypto hedge funds that managed to profit from Terra’s crash. Its founding partner, Jay Janer, sheds insights on his journey from TradFi trading desks at Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley. He shares his approach to navigating the world of digital assets and explains why agility is a key characteristic of successful traders, regardless of asset class. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 263,000 in September, in line with expectations, even as the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Combined with the relatively slow pace of firings, the Federal Reserve has all the data it needs to proceed with another 75-basis-point rate hike in November. But, as Peter Boockvar notes, the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims are lagging indicators. “My issue with the Fed,” notes Boockvar, “remains that after over-medicating us over the past few years that now shock therapy is overkill.” Boockvar joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed will go to get what it wants. We also share a sneak preview of a conversation between Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, and Maggie Lake about how the U.S. labor market has changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks drifted mostly lower Thursday, as investors look to Friday’s nonfarm payroll data for signs the U.S. labor market is finally beginning to break. New applications for unemployment benefits did tick up to 219,000 from a revised 190,000 the prior week. That’s not going to move a Federal Reserve that only gets more hawkish with each stock-market rally – and that seems hell-bent on driving up unemployment as a means of bringing down inflation. “We believe central banks have finally realized that negative nominal yields have been a very big mistake,” notes Diego Parilla. Parrilla, portfolio manager at Quadriga Asset Managers and the author of "The Anti-Bubbles,” joins Maggie Lake to talk about central banks and the policy divergences among them that could make for historic volatility. We also hear from James Davolos about how to pick stocks in a new, higher-for-longer inflationary regime. Watch the full interview featuring James Davolos and Samuel Burke here: https://rvtv.io/3CAD97E. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The U.S. dollar bounced back on Wednesday, its showing of strength once again a bane to equity markets, as interest rates also ticked higher for the first time in a few days. OPEC+’s decision to cut daily production by 2 million barrels is today’s main story, driving up crude oil prices by more than 1% and making energy the only sector moving higher in the S&P 500 today. Riding an impressive trading streak, Thomas Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Maggie Lake to talk about markets from a tactical perspective. We also hear from Michael Nicoletos about his sense that something is going to break and where it’s likely to happen. Watch the full interview featuring Michael Kao and Michael Nicoletos here: https://rvtv.io/3SIfzvA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks surged for a second straight day, with all three major U.S. equity indexes rising more than 2% on what seems to be rising hope the Federal Reserve will indeed pivot from its aggressively hawkish inflation-fighting stance. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering an output cut of more than a million barrels per day, a historic move that could push crude oil back toward the $100-per-barrel mark. With the world’s most important cartel meeting in Vienna on Wednesday to decide the next phase of production policy, Maggie Lake welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about what’s happening with energy and the broader commodities space and what it means for markets and the global economy. We also hear from George Magnus about the impact of “zero Covid” on China’s economy. Watch the full interview featuring George Magnus and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3yeafro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the three major U.S. equity indexes higher on the first Monday of October, rising more than 700 points and 2.5% by midday. That’s despite the fact the Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity slipped to 50.9 in September, its lowest print since May 2020. The U.S. housing market is also slowing rapidly, with median home prices now falling as fast as they did in January 2009. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse is evoking Lehman Brothers, and U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss has abandoned her new government’s tax-cut plan. Maggie Lake welcomes Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, to talk about the significance of today’s price action, and Weston Nakamura joins the conversation to discuss the ongoing policy confusion among global fiscal and monetary authorities. We want to hear from you too – please share your questions in the comments! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Cheap valuations, realistic catalysts for earnings growth, and a relatively young, educated population have Maciej Wojtal feeling very bullish on Iran and its economy. Wojtal, the founder and chief investment officer of Amtelon Capital, joins Harry Melandri to explain his optimism about a nuclear deal and to make the investment case for Iranian stocks and the Iranian rial. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Brent Donnelly has spent most of his life in markets. He got into forex while working for top-tier banks in the U.S. He traded the dot-com bubble with his own money. And he was at Lehman Brothers when it collapsed. In this special episode of My Life in 4 Trades, Brent shares with guest host Andreas Steno Larsen his perspective on trading, including the big regrets that became some of his best lessons. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The major equity indexes were mixed as of midday, a fair-to-middling session welcome relief from recent wild whipsaws. We also saw mixed inflation data: the personal consumption expenditure accelerated more than expected in August in the U.S., and eurozone prices surged a record 10% in September, though American consumers’ inflation expectations eased this month. Much of the broad market conversation is about when rather than whether something big is about to break. Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra Markets and the author of “Alpha Trader: The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading,” joins Maggie Lake to discuss that issue and to identify ways investors and traders can navigate the price action. We also hear from Michael Kao and Michael Nicoletos about the Federal Reserve’s global power. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Kao and Michael Nicoletos here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-geopolitics/videos/when-will-the-dollar[…]uff-QpZW?source_collection=852d5cce52bd4c829fc3d84de72c55b8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
These are complicated times. Inflation is riding a 40-year high, and nobody knows when this cycle is going to end. That’s why Real Vision is slashing Essential memberships by 59% – to give you access to the brightest minds in finance. Co-Founders Raoul Pal and Damian Horner and Senior Editor Ash Bennington break down everything we’re doing at Real Vision to bring clarity for investors and traders on this week’s RV Twitter Spaces. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The British pound’s wild ride took another turn after the Bank of England intervened in the bond market on Thursday, reportedly due to potential pension-fund implosions. The pound is now down more than 20% against the U.S. dollar in 2022, last among global currencies and just ahead of the Japanese yen. “The market may bounce if it doesn't break,” tweeted Dale Pinkert, “and the bounce can continue unless there is resistance that fails to hold leading to a gap that may or may not be filled.” Pinkert, the Head of Trader Development Tradeview Markets, joins Maggie Lake to share ideas on trading currencies, precious metals, and Bitcoin amid unprecedented forex and bond market volatility. We also hear from Lawrence Lepard about why gold stocks will be the top-performing asset class over the next 10 years. Watch the full conversation between Lawrence Lepard and Samuel Burke here: https://rvtv.io/3rjc02K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We’ve seen what could very well be an act of war perpetrated beneath the Baltic Sea. We’re watching the crumbling in real time of one of the world’s oldest, longest-standing economic, political, and financial pillars. And Hurricane Ian is bearing down on a densely populated coastal region extremely vulnerable to storm surge, high winds, and other attendant threats. But the three major U.S. equity indexes are ripping higher! Andreas Steno Larsen opens today’s Daily Briefing with a discussion of the U.K. and the extent to which its fiscal, monetary, and pension catastrophe could infect the rest of the world. With “sabotage” and “contagion” and “Cat 4” rising and “inflation” fading as the market’s main theme, Darius Dale joins to talk about what, if anything, today’s rally means in the bigger picture. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The word “sabotage” is in heavy rotation today, as the world wonders why natural gas is leaking from two pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. This can only make things worse, on a basic energy supply-and-demand level as well as for the more complex geopolitical landscape. The major U.S. equity indexes opened in positive territory but turned negative early in the trading day, as yields continued to rise. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about the global energy market and what these mysterious leaks portend. We also hear from Suriya Jayanti, the co-founder and managing director at decarbonization and renewables consultancy Eney LLC, about who holds the leverage in Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Suriya Jayanti here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-energy-crisis/videos/we-have-to-own-our-energy-crisis-now-qp22?source_collection=852d5cce52bd4c829fc3d84de72c55b8. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The British pound reached a record low, the People’s Bank of China stepped up its support for the yuan, the Bank of Japan defended its own intervention in defense of the yen, and every major currency in the world traded lower against the U.S. dollar today. Meanwhile, yields are spiking, particularly at the short end of the curve, and bonds are in their first bear market in 76 years. Should we be on the lookout for something big to break? Is the strong U.S. dollar going to cause a crisis for the rest of the world? Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action. We also hear from Jim Bianco about why inflation has probably peaked. Watch the full first video from our new Make or Break series featuring Jim and Raoul here: https://rvtv.io/3BPr7ph. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For the past 45 years, Rick Rule has been investing and speculating in the natural resource industry. The president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and the chair of Equinox Gold joins Harry Melandri to talk about why he’s turning his focus to uranium. In short, Rick is taking a long view on a resource that could help solve what will soon be a global energy crisis. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Denise Shull, an expert decision coach at The ReThink Group, leverages her background in neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to guide professional investors, traders, athletes, and entrepreneurs to maximum performance at times of high risk. In this special episode of My Life in Four Trades, Denise joins Maggie Lake to talk about the universal lessons drawn from the eclectic and unique career of Hugh Hendry. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With global markets on the edge and investors concerned about a multitude of extant financial and potential political headwinds, Maggie Lake welcomes back Raoul Pal for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. “Are markets breaking?” sounds hyperbolic. But U.K. debt is being re-priced as if it’s issued by something less than a third-world country. And foreign-exchange markets “are presently screaming global depression, not recession,” as one prominent member of the FinTwit community put it. Maggie and Raoul talk about the global liquidity situation and how the Federal Reserve will respond to another mess of its own making. Indeed, as Raoul noted early Friday, “The central bank experiment of Volcker worship in a massively indebted economy is on its last legs in the coming month or two.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mere hours after the Federal Reserve announced a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-low interest rate policy and intervened in foreign-exchange markets on behalf of the Japanese yen for the first time since 1998. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the danger this policy divergence poses to the global financial system. Could we be on the verge of a currency war in reverse? Then, Andreas welcomes Tavi Costa, a partner and a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, to talk about how to position for what Tavi recently described as “a vicious stagflationary environment.” We also hear from Nancy Davis and Kris Sidial about how to hedge downside risk amid rising volatility. Watch the full conversation featuring Nancy and Kris here: https://f.io/gHuRgo0F. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market’s 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC’s “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it’s “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the global financial system. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://f.io/fd0SmXxX. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields.” Tony, the founder and CEO of TG Macro, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action in key corners of the market, notably energy, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about what this week’s abundance of central bank activity means for financial markets and economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Weston Nakamura here: https://rvtv.io/3SmmDNU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
All three major U.S. equity indexes were essentially flat at the halfway point of Monday’s trading session, with attention squarely focused on the outcome of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As a 75-basis-point rate hike is a foregone conclusion, the main event will be Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Incoming data continue to suggest the economy is slowing, highlighted by a rapidly cooling housing market. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to preview this week’s central bank action. We also hear from Thomas Hoening, the longest-serving Fed president in U.S. history, about how risks posed by monetary tightening – i.e., rising unemployment – will test Powell’s resolve. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://rvtv.io/3qPyEQ3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Warren Pies is overweight energy for multiple reasons. The founder of 3Fourteen Research joins Harry Melandri to make the bullish case for everything related to hydrocarbon extraction, production, and delivery to market, citing years of poor management and negative cash flow as the primary reasons the sector was discounted. Warren explains why high-quality energy stocks should have a place in any long-term portfolio – and he notes that some housing exposure might be a good idea right now too. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Andrew Rosener has always had an entrepreneurial spirit. As the founder and CEO of Media Options – the No. 1 media domain brokerage in the world – he’s responsible for some of the largest domain sales in history. In a captivating conversation, Andrew talks to Maggie Lake about how he’s remained at the tip of the spear in the digital asset realm. He also shares his worst trade and how he’s come to terms with a $1.9 billion loss. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
FedEx withdrew forward earnings guidance and CEO Raj Subramaniam warned of a “worldwide recession” on Friday, sounding another “risk off” signal and sending all three major U.S. indexes to declines of at least 1% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how a “worldwide recession” would impact particular asset classes, with an emphasis on energy. Warren explains the structural factors that make high-quality names related to crude oil and natural gas potential outperformers – even in an environment of “dramatic disinflation.” We also have a preview of an upcoming My Life in 4 Trades podcast featuring Bill Browder, who talks about Vladimir Putin, what comes next in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and why it’s going to go on for some time longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes traded mixed Thursday, as investors priced in murky economic data and the reality that Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve shall not pivot from its inflation-fighting stance. “We think the CPI report was very important for the market,” said Eric Johnston, the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald. “It showed that inflation does not magically come down and you can’t get it under control with a soft landing, an unemployment rate below 4%, and the S&P 500 at 4,000.” Eric joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why equities are holding up so well with global growth increasingly impaired and financial conditions more and more restrictive. Eric and Andreas also discuss key levels for major asset classes and positioning dynamics amid the many prevailing global geopolitical-macroeconomic crosscurrents. We also hear from Jason Trennert about the structural factors that will keep inflation higher for longer. Watch the full conversation featuring Jason Trennert and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3dfUHvY. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Markets achieved a relative calm today following yesterday’s steep sell-off, as investors continued to process hotter-than-expected August Consumer Price Index data and priced in expectations-meeting Producer Price Index data. What we have now, as Darius Dale sees it, is the transition from the Federal Reserve pushing back on “pivot” expectations to market participants accepting the implications of a single-mandate central bank: a downturn in the global liquidity cycle. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what that means for prices of risk assets, including equities, crude oil, and Bitcoin. The key question, of course, is this: Where can we hide from what appears to be an imminent bear-market rout? We also hear from Peter Boockvar about what a strong U.S. dollar means to various market constituents. Watch the complete conversation between Peter Boockvar and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Nasdaq Composite led equity indexes to the downside, Bitcoin followed suit in the crypto market, and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note spiked in the aftermath of this morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for August. Expectations-beating 8.3% annual and 0.1% monthly readings all but guarantee the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a third straight 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting next week. The question is, is it time to talk about 100 basis points? And how do we position our portfolios should the Fed get even more hawkish? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and portfolio positioning in this environment. We also hear from Peter Boockvar about the impact on company earnings of higher energy and other input costs. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Peter Boockvar here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The New York Federal Reserve’s monthly consumer survey showed expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 5.75% in August from 6.2% in July, as investors await Tuesday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for more clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about how the Federal Reserve will interpret recent inflation data in the broader global economic context. With stocks on the rise, yields on the decline, and the inflation genie seemingly on its way back into the bottle, are things really getting better? We also hear from Mike Novogratz, who was live at the SALT Conference in New York City, about opportunities that are sure to emerge over the next three to five years amid a shifting macro landscape.
We apologize for the abbreviated episode, as we were dealing with technical issues that caused it to be cut short. We’ve resolved those issues, and we hope to get Gordon Johnson back on the Daily Briefing soon to talk about the global economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Marin Katusa has made a fortune investing in natural resources. He's also arranged more than $2 billion in deal financing in the sector and written the New York Times best-seller book “The Colder War” and the Amazon.com best-seller “The Rise of America.” In this fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade, Marin explains to Harry Melandri why the rule of law in relevant jurisdictions is critical for successful natural resource investing and identifies the uranium, carbon, and gold companies in which he’s invested. Transparency is of utmost importance to Real Vision and as such the disclosure from today guest, Marin Katusa, includes his position as co-chair of the board of directors of Carbon Royalty Corp. He’s also one of the largest individual shareholders of Carbon Streaming Corp ($OFSTF). Marin arranged financing for and is a shareholder of Uranium Royalty Corp ($UROY). He’s a shareholder of Uranium Energy Corp ($UEC). He’s a large shareholder of Osisko Development Corp ($ODV), and his wife sits on the Osisko Development board of directors. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Pippa Malmgren is a world-renowned economist and a former advisor to President George W. Bush. She uses her background in geopolitics to spot what's coming next, including the 2007 Global Financial Crisis, President Trump's election, and the return of inflation. On this special episode of My Life in Four Trades, Pippa talks to Real Vision’s Samuel Burke about the power of storytelling and how she acts as a bridge between investors and lawmakers. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If we understand the macro through what the major equity indexes and more modern indicators such as Bitcoin and Ethereum tell us, then, at least for today, it’s all good. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, with a 2% gain heading into the last two hours of the trading week. With recent price action reflecting a “risk on” mood heading into the weekend, Michele “Mish” Schneider, the author of “Plant Your Money Tree,” joins Maggie Lake to talk about key levels for stocks, bonds, crypto and the dollar. Mish also shares critical information about hot sectors such as solar and EVs, emerging markets and trends, and the all-important commodity sector. What’s peaking right now, and what’s not? Mish and Maggie will answer that question and any others you’d like to ask – please share yours in the chat! Follow along with todays charts here: https://rvtv.io/3BuA7Br Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held competing public appearances this morning, as the ECB announced its biggest-ever interest-rate increase and the Fed doubled down on its commitment to fighting inflation. Lagarde’s message was more mixed, however, with higher borrowing costs only increasing the risk of recession in Europe. “We have calls like this for people freezing to death and a sovereign debt crisis, and I’m like, ‘I think they’re going to figure it out’,” wrote Jared Dillian in a recent issue of The Daily DirtNap. “I’m not saying there will be a good solution, only that there will be a solution.” Jared joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an assessment of Europe’s crises. Then, Andreas welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central banks, the forex market, and the rising probability of Japanese yen intervention. We also hear from Josh Young about why energy is the most compelling area of the market right now and how oil and gas stocks are phenomenally mis-priced. Watch the full conversation between Josh Young and Harris Kupperman here: https://rvtv.io/3RJIoqm. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The European Central Bank is expected to announce another 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting tomorrow, even as the euro weakens against the U.S. dollar and authorities on the continent contend with an escalating energy crisis. Equity markets remain highly attuned to what central bankers say, with the major U.S. indexes bouncing on comments by Fed Governor Lael Brainard. “It seems the bond market is already pricing in a positive revision to the Fed’s inflation target,” tweeteds Darius Dale. “An outcome that may become reality towards the end of this tightening cycle.” Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about competing priorities for fiscal and monetary authorities, August PMI prints, supply-chain disruptions, and disinflation and inflation expectations compared to the Fed’s “price stability” mandate. We also hear from Emil Kalinowski about why European policymakers must backstop private lending in this escalating crisis. Watch the full video featuring Emil Kalinowski and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3D9VHfA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Institute for Supply Management reported today that its services index ticked up to 56.9 in August from 56.7 in July, expanding for the 27th consecutive month and catalyzing a “good news is bad news” leg of the recent equity selloff. It looks like investors are pricing in a higher probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in two weeks. The U.S. dollar is pushing out to multi-decade highs against multiple counterparts, including the Japanese yen and the euro. And the greenback is at all-time highs against the British pound, as the new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss steps into Number 10 as well as a raging energy crisis. And with the People’s Bank of China taking more aggressive steps to defend the yuan against depreciation, now is a good time to understand what’s happening in foreign exchange markets. Weston Nakamura, Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what we can learn from forex, perhaps the purest market on the planet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With a population of nearly 1.5 billion, an average age of 28, and a rapidly growing economy, India is a country we all should be following. Capitalmind CEO Deepak Shenoy joins Ash Bennington to talk about the innovation happening across one of the world’s most vibrant places. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We had so much great content from our episode with Alex Gurevich we had to release it into two parts. In this installment, Alex establishes his meta rules for trading and explains his current views on foreign exchange and global equities markets. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Michael Venuto, a co-founder and the chief investment officer of Toroso Investments, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what he learned during his chaotic stretch on the New York Stock Exchange, how he got burned trading Royal Caribbean options in 2009, and why blockchain-traded funds will eventually replace ETFs. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 370-point gain and turned red this afternoon, as investors appeared to abandon equities ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. This morning’s “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report provided an initial lift on hope there was foundation for a 50 as opposed to a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets September 20-21. And then there’s the crude oil question – as in, is that critical commodity getting ready for another run higher? With the G-7 discussing a price cap on Russian oil, Vladimir Putin saying he won’t sell to nations that agree to it, and Saudi Arabia weighing production cuts, Maggie Lake welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about "black gold," volatility, and things that could make what is, historically, the worst month for the stock market particularly catastrophic this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low last week, a sign of sustained labor-market strength ahead of Friday’s release of a nonfarm payroll report for August. U.S Treasury yields are rising, with the two-year touching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates are also climbing, reaching a two-month high. And the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 76% probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. At the same time, some data suggest the Fed’s efforts are having their intended effect – that inflation may indeed have been “transitory.” Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the yield market and the phases of the 2021-23 Fed reaction function. Darius thinks we’re in the third phase, where interest rates will stay higher for longer. So, what comes next? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept it short and sour last Friday, and stocks have fallen in all four trading sessions since he re-announced his hawkishness with authority at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With traders pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike in September, the path forward for the U.S. seems a little less fraught than the one facing Europe, where rationing and recession loom in consequence of the continent’s energy crisis. That’s with inflation rising to a fresh record in August and virtually goading the European Central Bank into its own major rate hike when it meets next week. Imran Lakh, the founder and CEO of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about volatility and how to trade it using options. We also hear from Dario Perkins about the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for bonds amid a time of historic uncertainty. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Did you miss Raoul Pal's Live AMA on YouTube? Well, you're in luck, because today we're releasing the whole thing. Sit back and enjoy a community coming together for a deep conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Europe’s energy crisis is getting worse, stoking inflation as well as fear of “conflict and strife” on the continent. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to a 19-month low in August, as France accused Russia of using natural gas as a “weapon of war.” Recent price action suggests investors are pricing in the demand impact on energy markets. Still, with European policymakers desperately seeking long-term solutions, the nuclear option is back on the table. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the energy crisis in Europe, the policy choices that contributed to it, what can be done now to fix things for the future, and how we can trade it. We also hear from Mark Nelson about why nuclear power will save Europe. Watch the full video featuring Mark Nelson and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3cu9tiy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes followed Bitcoin lower at Monday’s open, trading well in the red as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s short but stern message that the central bank will tighten monetary policy until inflation is beaten. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a 15-year high, and we’re now witnessing the deepest inversion between the two-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note in more than 20 years. And September – historically the worst month for stocks – is just around the corner. “Tightening should only worsen the potential for a major breakage in credit,” notes Mark Ritchie II, “and the Fed’s refusal to pivot in the short run should produce some more potential fireworks to the downside.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the epic battle brewing between bears and bulls and whether U.S. stocks are going to make another run at the lows. We also hear from Vincent Deluard about the energy crisis in Europe. Watch the full conversation featuring Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3PX0mEz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this riveting episode of The Next Big Trade, Alex Gurevich, the founder and chief investment officer of HonTe Investments, joins host Harry Melandri to explain how he’s playing the long game and why max-duration bonds are his vehicle of choice to ride out prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical crosswinds and a potential global downturn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. James Altucher has been to hell and back. On the morning of September 11, 2001, James was just three blocks away from Ground Zero when two hijacked airplanes flew into the Twin Towers. He was one of the few who witnessed both impacts, and that led to years of post-traumatic stress disorder. He also went broke and lost everything. But he rebounded and found new success. James talks to Maggie Lake about the importance of resilience and open-mindedness when it comes to trading and investing and why he writes down 10 ideas every morning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke for eight minutes, offered three lessons, and generated one takeaway: “No pivot,” as Jim Bianco tweeted. The central bank will tighten monetary policy “until the job is done,” with Powell essentially promising pain for investors and workers alike. U.S. Treasury yields spiked and equity indexes sagged after the Fed Chair floated his short but stinging statement. Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed is willing to go to get what it wants and whether today’s data on July personal income and spending, including a decline in the Fed’s most-favored inflation gauge, is a sign it’s actually happening. Powell foreshadowed tough times, but the Fed and its acolytes have also said a potential recession will be short and shallow. So, is “short and shallow” the new “transitory”? And what in the world is happening in Europe, as German consumer confidence falls to an all-time low? We also hear from Dario Perkins about how the Fed can still pull off a “soft-ish” landing. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Did you know the foreign exchange market is the largest in the world, with more than $5 trillion traded every single day? Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra Markets, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to break down everything that’s happening in forex right now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia surged to near-record highs Wednesday, as the worst energy crisis in decades intensifies amid increasingly desperate competition for supplies. And Europe’s fertilizer crunch tightened after a major manufacturer cut output due to soaring costs – driven by natural gas prices. With twin humanitarian crises looming, Tony Greer tweeted, “Does anyone in Europe have a plan?” Tony, the founder of TG Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about energy, food, and what, if anything, all those central bankers gathering for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium can do to stave off a global catastrophe. We also hear from Adrian Day about “Dr. Copper” and what its supply-and-demand dynamic can tell us about economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Adrian Day and Larry McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3dZ9N9n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Record-high temperatures and a severe drought in west-central China has crippled hydropower generation and prompted the shutdown of many factories in the latest blow to a Chinese economy already weighed down by stagnant consumer spending and a deeply troubled real estate market. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan will re-start more idled nuclear plants and look at developing next-generation reactors to stabilize the island nation’s energy supply. Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what trouble in the East means for the West and how it’s playing out in forex markets. Then, Katie Stockton, the founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins Maggie to share a technical view of the market, including key levels for the S&P 500, energy commodities, and the U.S. dollar. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on the dollar and what its movement tells us about global liquidity. Watch the full video featuring Michael Howell and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3POP7Oh. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The euro has broken below parity with the dollar, hitting a two-decade low on Tuesday amid multiple exigent crises that threaten not just growth but continental order. And the yuan has weakened to a two-year low against the buck, as Chinese authorities struggle to sustain growth amid a major housing market downturn. Traders see no bottom in sight for either currency, as China’s slowdown makes Europe’s troubles that much worse in a feedback loop with global implications. As we near the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Thursday, it’s fair to question what the Federal Reserve can do in a world where power prices in Germany reach the rough equivalent of crude oil at $1,000 per barrel. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about that as well as what a strong dollar means for financial markets and the global economy. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on tightening liquidity and what it means for equity markets. Watch the full video featuring Michael Howell and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3POP7Oh. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes opened deep in the red and traded lower through the day, as investors price in “risk off” signals emerging everywhere from China to Germany and anticipate a big week of news from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. As Weston Nakamura notes, today’s price action was foretold last Friday, when the Peoples Bank of China stepped in to defend the Chinese yuan. Prices of risk assets everywhere – including Bitcoin – began to retreat. Now we have more signs the European energy crisis is deepening, with natural gas prices surging on a new round of “maintenance” on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Weston joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the seemingly rapid shift to a “risk off” tone, signals from the forex market, this energy crisis, and how to trade this kind of action. We also hear from Santiago Capital CEO Brent Johnson about the relationship between pegged and un-pegged currencies. Watch the full video featuring Francis "The Market Sniper" Hunt and Brent Johnson here: https://rvtv.io/3AeYC3F. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Aksel Kibar, the managing director of Tech Charts Research & Trading, is a Chartered Market Technician with more than 15 years of experience as a classical trader and global equity market analyst. Aksel joins Harry Melandri for this week’s episode of The Next Big Trade to talk about the power of technical analysis and how reading charts can help you find your next big trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harry Melandri’s life has been both unconventional and exhilarating. He’s worked at some of the world’s premier financial institutions, including UBS and Deutsche Bank, and he also spent time at the Bank of England. Harry joins Maggie Lake to share stories from his remarkable career and the lessons he learned a long the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard isn’t ready to say inflation has peaked and at this point leans toward a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next month. The central bank is fighting back against a market that’s already pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2023. But here’s the best way to think about when the Fed might “pivot,” according to Jared Dillian: “Remember, they don’t hike until things are cool. They hike until something breaks.” And there’s the political angle too: “Remember, the Fed still has to be seen doing something about inflation.” Jared joins Maggie Lake to talk about inflation in its domestic and global guises, what central banks can and will do to fight it, and whether we might be too bearish given all the bad news that’s already out there. We also hear from Rob Arnott about Wall Street inflation expectations and what, exactly, is fueling them. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Although the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points was unanimous, minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show multiple officials acknowledged a risk that the central bank could tighten “by more than necessary” in its effort to control inflation. Officials also observed that the bulk of tightening effects have yet to be felt, noting that unemployment would likely rise from here. Underscoring the global nature of this inflation phenomenon, the U.K. Consumer Price Index surged to a 40-year high of 10.1% in July. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the FOMC minutes, what recent data, including U.S. retail sales, suggest about the Fed’s future path, and the worrying stagflationary signs from overseas. We also hear from Roger Hirst about what the CPI and interest rates can tell us about a recession. Watch the entire episode of Insider Talks featuring Roger Hirst here: https://rvtv.io/3wbmO5K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes continue to go higher despite accumulating evidence of slowing domestic and international economic activity and rising pressure on people and government in Europe and elsewhere due to energy and food shortages. The situation has grown particularly acute in Germany, where sentiment continues to slide amid drastically reduced natural gas supplies and a historic drought. Authorities there are reversing policy to keep at least three nuclear reactors running and supplying baseload power, as feelings about the once-verboten technology shift amid a resource-strangling war in Eastern Europe. Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, to talk about what energy markets are saying about global growth. We also hear from Wouter Jongbloed on the broader context and potential implications of Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full interview with Wouter Jongbloed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3A4B95n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The People’s Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they’re pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as supply chains come back on line. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Jeff Snider, the chief strategist at Atlas Financial and the co-host of the Eurodollar University podcast, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the “grotesquely upside down” Eurodollar futures curve in another gripping episode of The Next Big Trade. Jeff and Harry also discuss the implications of a rising U.S. dollar and the consequences of a collateral shortage for the global financial system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Imagine losing $4 million and the opportunity to set up your family for life as well as your digital identity in less than a year. Sergio Silva, the sales director at Fireblocks, joins Maggie Lake for a riveting episode of My Life in 4 Trades, where he talks about his ups and downs in a volatile 2022, shares the hard lessons he’s learned and explains how his Mexican roots give him the perspective and the strength to play the long game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July ticked up to 55.1 from 51.5 in June, as a sub-measure of consumer expectations reached a three-month high. And U.S. stocks continue to surge on the hope inflation has peaked. News from overseas continues to reflect an unsettled, at best, macroeconomic environment, with the U.K. economy shrinking for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, water levels on the Rhone River falling to a critical mark due to historic drought, and credit growth in China slowing sharply on sluggish demand. Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, recent economic data, risk appetite amid what remains a fraught geo-macro moment, and why this might be the most hated equity market rally ever. Is it possible that stocks have already seen their lows and that this rally has real legs? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. stocks surged again this morning on news the Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% in July, the first monthly decline since April 2020. At the same time, producer prices were up 9.8% year over year. And multiple Federal Reserve officials said tightening would continue until inflationary pressures completely ease. “Stocks are going up,” notes Harry Melandri, an advisor at Mi2 Partners and the host of Real Vision’s The Next Big Trade podcast, “and that doesn’t seem consistent with Fed statements.” That we need inflation to have peaked and to no longer be a problem does not mean, of course, that it’s happened. To that end, we hear from emerging markets investing pioneer Mark Mobius about reasons to start nibbling amid what’s still a bear market as well as the possibility that there’s another shoe to drop because the Fed remains hawkish. Harry joins Maggie Lake, the host of Real Vision’s My Life in 4 Trades podcast, to talk about all that and much more, including Harry’s Cheesecake Factory anecdote. Watch the full interview featuring Mark Mobius and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3zHPXXi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. stocks gapped higher at today’s open and held onto big gains through the day, buoyed by signs in July’s Consumer Price Index data that we’ve finally reached an inflection point for inflation. Both headline and core measures came in below consensus forecast, as the question turns to whether the trend has changed. Plunging yields across the U.S. Treasury curve suggest investors believe it has. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about price action across asset classes leading up to and in the aftermath of this morning’s report. Andreas welcomes Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, for an assessment of the July CPI data in the broader context and the “evolving distribution of probable outcomes.” What does this print mean for markets, especially as it comes from a month when the U.S. economy added more than 500,000 jobs? And what does the Federal Reserve do next? “It’s critical,” as Darius tweeted today, “to have a data-driven process that’s able to recognize it in real-time.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Marko Papic has a very clear view of Wednesday morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the July U.S. Consumer Price Index: “Getting the inflection in CPI prints is really important,” he says. “So, yes, even a minor decline is relevant.” Papic, a partner and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group, also has a very clear view of the most important factor in the global inflation calculus: crude oil. “The bottom line is that if oil prices fall further, don’t expect the equity rebound to end. It is all about oil prices at this point.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about oil, inflation, and equity markets. We also hear from David Woo, who compares the China-Taiwan situation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offers the following geopolitical marker: “Before the end of August, we will know how the situation in Ukraine is going to play out." Watch the full interview featuring David Woo and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3Pds1Ro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If last week’s events in and around Taiwan illustrate Asia’s growing geopolitical importance, today’s announcement by SoftBank that it lost $23 billion in the second quarter also make it the home to “the world’s largest dumb retail investor,” as Weston Nakamura put it. Weston joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about SoftBank and to preview Wednesday’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. With the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey of consumer expectations showing substantial declines in short-, medium-, and long -term inflation expectations, Maggie welcomes Dave Floyd, the president of Aspen Trading Group, for an update on financial markets from a technical analyst’s perspective. Where are key levels of support and resistance for the major equity indexes? What are forex markets telling us? And is this merely a bear market rally? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this edition of Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Damian Horner, Maggie Lake, and George Stanoev join Ash Bennington to introduce Real Vision’s newest groundbreaking venture, the Real Vision Academy. Our panel talks about the many ways the Academy can help you and your portfolio grow along your investing journey and answers from the Space about the Academy and its mission to make better investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Paul Hodges of the pH Report and New Normal Consulting joins Maggie Lake for another compelling episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Hodges, a 40-year financial veteran, talks about when markets will stop Fed-watching and refocus on core fundamental principles and the process of price discovery. He also explains why every trade has four possible outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Equity futures tanked and Treasury yields spiked this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, as investors priced in another 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets in September. The major U.S. stock indexes rallied, rolled over, and rallied again into the afternoon, reflecting what remains the murkiest macro environment in recent memory. Meanwhile, on the increasingly fraught geopolitical front, China stepped up its military activity around Taiwan, sanctioned Nancy Pelosi, and cut off military and climate talks with the U.S. Maggie Lake welcomes Jeffrey Schulze, a director and an investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, to the Daily Briefing to talk about today’s jobs report and what it means for the Fed, markets, and investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Bank of England announced its biggest rate hike since 1995 and forecast “long recession,” including five consecutive quarters of negative growth beginning in late 2022, as global central banks continue to take drastic measures to combat the worst inflation in nearly half a century. In the U.S., more data suggest the labor market is cooling off, as initial claims for unemployment insurance returned to pre-pandemic levels last week. The BoE’s problem may be more acute than the Federal Reserve’s because of the former’s proximity to Europe’s energy crisis. As Darius Dale tweeted today, there are positive catalysts out there, including the deal between Coinbase and BlackRock to make crypto trading easier for institutions. The question is how to interpret them. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about that and much more on today’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks are ripping higher today and yields are rising, as multiple Federal Reserve officials are telling the market that the central bank is still hawkish about inflation and talk of a “pivot” is premature. “You’ve had enough candy, no more for you,” is how Peter Boockvar puts it in his latest report. Peter, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said of today’s Institute for Supply Management’s services index data for July that “the headline increase but the shrinking breadth of economic growth points to the growing mixed bag but slowing trend of the US economy.” He joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about weakening economic data and the Fed’s path from here. We also hear from David Woo about the trajectory of U.S. growth and what it means for markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes teetered between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan provoked rapid responses from China, including the announcement of military drills to take place Aug. 4-7 that will basically encircle the island. Taylor Fravel, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the MIT Security Studies Program, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what comes next in an increasingly fraught geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the central bank is “nowhere near” being almost done fighting inflation, and bond yields were higher across the U.S. curve, with the 10-year making its biggest move since mid-June. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Andreas to talk about recent price action and what happens to commodities markets if tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan boil over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Equity indexes slipped into negative territory Monday afternoon and the U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve inverted even further, as investors price in easing inflation and slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slipped to a 25-month low, and home prices registered the fastest cool-down in history during July. Meanwhile, whether Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi touches down in Taiwan on Tuesday is more fuel for the conflagration that is the postwar geopolitical order. With the world’s most important central bank now “data dependent,” Real Vision macro analyst Roger Hirst joins Maggie Lake to contextualize recent economic reports and explain how to use them to make better investment and trading decisions – one of the key elements of the brand-new Real Investing Course from Real Vision. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about recent price action on the critical USD/JPY front. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Rob Dugger, the founder of Hanover Investment Group and a co-founder of ReadyNation, joins host Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rob shares his thoughts on how inequality has created malinvestment in the U.S. and why investing in infrastructure and national security could help the economy regain strength and stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harley Bassman has worked in finance for more than 40 years. Before becoming a managing partner at Simplify, Bassman traded at Credit Suisse, Merril Lynch, and PIMCO. He joins Maggie Lake to talk about why using simple common sense led to his early success and how he got burned during the Global Financial Crisis by not listening to Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager portrayed by Steve Carrell in the hit movie “The Big Short.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We’re witnessing the greatest stock market rally in the aftermath of a Federal Reserve rate hike since the 1970s, as investors seem to be celebrating inflation’s end. That’s despite the fact that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, surged to 6.8% in June, the highest reading since June 1982. Jerome Powell said this week’s 75-basis-point move gets the fed funds target range back to “neutral.” According to Jim Bianco, “That only works if you still believe in transitory and inflation is going back to 2%.” Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about why inflation is not “over,” what the Fed will do with “incoming data,” and when the recession will become “official.” We also hear from David Rosenberg about when and why the market will bottom. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It’s clearly not a good thing that the Commerce Department reported a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, with U.S. gross domestic product declining at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. But are we in recession? Following the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, George Goncalves forecast back-to-back 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July, warning the Federal Reserve could “miscalibrate and push us over the edge.” Well, we got 75 and 75. When will tightening financial conditions impact the economy and markets in a way that gets the Federal Reserve’s attention? And where can we look for such a signal? Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the journey from inflation risk to rate risk to credit risk. We also hear from Jim Bianco about what’s happening in perhaps the most critical area of global finance: “Things have already broken the bond market.” For Conclaves charts click here: https://rvtv.io/3vo88Qs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Open Market Committee delivered exactly as expected Wednesday afternoon, announcing a second consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate hike on a unanimous vote. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains, short-term U.S. Treasury yields dipped, and the dollar softened in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. An otherwise anodyne FOMC statement did note “recent indicators of spending and production have softened,” though it also described the labor market as “robust” and inflation as “elevated.” The Fed remains “highly attentive to inflation risks,” as attention turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks. At the top of his prepared statement, Powell stressed the importance to long-term economic health of getting back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and the “rolling process” that is recession. We also hear a clip from Darius’s Fed Week conversation with Steven Van Metre and Jeffrey Snider about “getting back to neutral” when it comes to interest rates. You can watch that full conversation, including Roger Hirst’s commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, describing the outlook as “gloomy and more uncertain.” That general picture is reflected in cuts to quarterly and annual profit forecasts by U.S. retail bellwether Walmart $WMT. The European Union’s natural gas crisis did take a relatively constructive turn with an agreement by member countries to cut consumption by 15%. Investors will be focused on the Federal Open Market Committee until its decision on Wednesday and the post-meeting press conference. Will it be 50, 75, or even 100 basis points? Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the Federal Reserve’s options, the potential ripple effects of those choices, and why the Japanese yen remains a critical indicator of the health of the financial system. We also hear from Jeffrey Snider about what the eurodollar futures curve is telling us about the condition of the global economy. Watch the full interview featuring Steven Van Metre, Jeffrey Snider, and Darius Dale, with Roger Hirst’s “post game” commentary, here: https://rvtv.io/3cI5JcG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed as of midday Monday, as investors anticipate another interest rate move by the Federal Open Market Committee and digest earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world, with numbers expected to be held down by a strong dollar and soaring inflation. We’ll also get an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as debate heats up about what is and whether we are already in a recession. “Economic numbers are starting to weaken,” notes Jeff Meyers, “and we feel a recession is on the way.” Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the operating and market environment for small-caps and to identify the names that will lead the way out of this bear market. We also hear from Luke Gromen about how he’s adjusted his view of a “Fed pivot.” Watch the full interview with Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen here: https://rvtv.io/3cEWJW2. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this week’s jam-packed episode of The Next Big Trade, Doomberg, a Substack star and a low-key FinTwit legend, and Michael Kao, the CIO of the Kao Family Office, join Harry Melandri to talk about everything happening across crude oil, natural gas, and other key energy markets. Doomberg, Michael, and Harry survey the current landscape, ponder what’s on the horizon, and debate solutions to a developing global energy crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Noel Smith has learned many hard lessons during his 25 years trading volatility, making markets, and managing risk. Now a managing partner and the chief investment officer of Convex Asset Management, Noel cut his teeth by trading Enron and losing big but turning it around and coming out of the Global Financial Crisis in the green. He joins Maggie Lake to share the wisdom he’s accrued along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Deteriorating PMI data in the U.S. as well as Europe ahead of what the market expects will be a 75-basis-point rate hike following next week’s Federal Open Market Committee enhanced the specter of slowing economic growth, even as we’ve yet to see peak inflation, and investors sold stocks today. That’s despite the fact that the United Nations brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to restart shipments of blockaded grain and address the rising threat of famine across the Middle East and North Africa, a ray of hope amid what remains a complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, and global financial backdrop. Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action and recent moves by central banks to cope with circumstances that more and more seem beyond their control. Raoul also shares highlights from his recent conversation with Real Vision co-founder Damian Horner about an exciting new series currently in production. Watch the full conversation featuring Raoul and Damian here: https://www.realvision.com/an-update-from-raoul-and-damian. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The European Central Bank announced an expectations-beating half-point interest-rate hike today, at the same time introducing a “tool” to ensure borrowing costs in vulnerable economies don’t spiral out of control, as central banks continue to fight inflation. Weston Nakamura drops in at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an update on the Bank of Japan’s divergence from its peers, coining the phrase “yield spread control” to highlight a critical split at the heart of the global financial system. And former IMF economist and Wall Street strategist David Woo, now writing at DavidWooUnbound.com, joins Maggie Lake to talk about the ECB, softening U.S. economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the implications of a crumbling Chinese credit market. Are we fated for a stagflationary future? David and Maggie address that question and many more as the countdown to Fed Week continues. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Office of National Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation in the U.K. hit a new 40-year high in June, consumer prices rising 9.4% from a year earlier and adding pressure on the Bank of England for a response. Meanwhile, a gauge from the European Commission showed Euro Area consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level on record. And two measures of the health of the U.S. housing market showed significant deterioration last month. Still, according to Harry Melandri, we likely haven’t seen “peak inflation,” and so central banks will keep hiking rates. Melandri, an advisor at MI2 Partners, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about how the Fed might respond to core CPI readings over the next quarter and to express his skepticism over Russia’s weaponization of its natural gas. “Do they need the money more than we need the gas?” We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why the Federal Reserve is “gonna slow down” and “take a pause.” Watch Stephan Clapham’s full interview with Harris here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In his most recent newsletter, Tony Greer of TG Macro wrote, “The setup for oil bulls on this gorgeous summer Friday morning is not to be believed. Stocks and commodities just spent the last quarter hemorrhaging in historic proportions, and now we’ve got a textbook turnaround setup…” Well, stocks are ripping today, and WTI crude oil is back above $104 per barrel, even as residential-starts data suggest the U.S. housing market is cooling and Apple announced plans to slow hiring and spending. Gasoline prices have fallen to two-month lows a week ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the central bank is expected to announce another inflation-fighting 75-basis-point rate hike. Tony’s here to talk about all that and more with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake. We also hear from Chen Zhao about the coming “run of the mill” recession and how it differs from prior crisis-driven downturns. Watch the entire interview featuring Chen Zhao and Marko Papic here: https://rvtv.io/3aLSmrD. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America posted solid headline-level earnings this morning, both benefiting from higher interest rates during the second quarter. But both also posted significantly higher provisions for bad loans, a sign of concern for the health of debtors. Meanwhile, hope for some sort of relief from Saudi Arabia appears to be the forlorn variety, as Desert Kingdom officials declined to make any promises regarding future crude oil output increases. European Union officials, in a sign of increasing desperation, did cut a natural gas deal with Azerbaijan. Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Laresen to talk about what happens when the Federal Reserve pushes the U.S. economy into recession to fight inflation. According to Gromen, many investors and policymakers are “seemingly oblivious to what the Federal deficit has done in the two recessions prior to COVID.” We also hear from Alexander Stahel about Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to inflict maximum pain on Europe via the weaponization of natural gas. Watch the entire interview featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3PGdw9n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Shawn Hackett is the president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a firm that helps investors and hedgers (most notably farmers but end-users too) make better decisions when they get involved in agricultural commodities markets. Shawn joins Harry Melandri to talk about how weather patterns figure into commodity price forecasting, what impact current geopolitical factors could have on those prices, why we could face a cattle shortage, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed has amassed a Twitter following of more than 664,000. So how does he meet the expectations and manage the stress that come with such a public undertaking? In conversation with Maggie Lake, Michael shares his social media coping mechanisms, and he also explains how music became a creative outlet for him. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jared Dillian tweeted it out: “It would take 8 months of 0.0% CPI readings to get CPI back to 5%.” And that was before the Commerce Department reported retail sales grew by a greater-than-expected 1% in June. President Joe Biden is in Saudi Arabia working on one angle of the inflation crisis, as investors re-priced the possibility of a 100-basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. Here’s something else Jared tweeted, yesterday: “Starting to think we put in bottoms in oil, gold, and stocks, and a top in the dollar at 10 am this morning.” The editor of The Daily Dirtnap joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about those “bottoms” and how inflation and the Fed’s response to it is affecting the economy, markets, and expectations. We also hear from Anas Alhajji about short-term factors weighing on crude oil prices. Watch the full interview with Tony Greer and Anas Alhajji here: https://rvtv.io/3z9Rbvk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this week's jam-packed Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Ash Bennington, and Jim Bianco talk about everything from inflation and the US dollar to growth and tech, including crypto and so much more. Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The producer price index was up 11.3% year over year in June, the seventh consecutive double-digit gain, and accelerated to 1.1% from 0.9% in May on a month-over-month basis, as inflationary pressure continues to build. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest bank in the U.S. by market cap, reported a 28% decline in earnings and boosted its provision for bad loans by $428 million. And jobless claims surged to a 2022 high. That’s to say nothing of the multiple failures in the crypto space. Financial economist and author Frances Coppola, the self-proclaimed "Notorious Crypto Skeptic," joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about inflation, financial markets, and what happens when banks – both traditional and “shadow” – collapse. We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why “the whole world is going to change.” Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IEtnmu. Watch the full interview with Harris Kupperman and Stephan Clapham here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Registering yet another 40-year high, the consumer price index for June came in at 9.1% and solidified at least a 75 basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. The Bank of Canada broke the seal on 100 basis points today, and the probability of a similar move by the Federal Reserve spiked after this morning’s inflation report. Whatever the magnitude of its upcoming rate increase, what the Fed has already done will likely put the economy in recession, according to Eric Johnston, and that means earnings are likely to come down. Eric, the head of equity derivatives and cross asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Maggie Lake to talk about why earnings will catalyze the next leg down for equities markets. We also hear from Shawn Hackett about how to trade amid a correction in the commodities market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ayWL0O. Watch the full Interview with Shawn Hackett here: https://rvtv.io/3uJm1Zf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We’ve yet to see the hard domestic economic data sufficient to support the case that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening program. Perhaps the June consumer price index, due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be that data. In the meantime, ZEW survey results for July reflect acute concern in Germany about the potential impact of a complete embargo on Russian gas, with the index of economic expectations falling to minus 53.8 from 28.0 in June. Altogether, the euro dropped to a 20-year low versus the U.S. dollar, approaching parity on fear of an energy crisis and a recession. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the implications of euro-dollar parity, when falling crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices will show up in inflation figures, and the complex equation that could end in a global energy crisis. We also take a quick peek at today’s Insider Talks episode with Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3avxK6C. Watch the full Insider Talks episode here: https://rvtv.io/3IxryYo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Markets meandered during a mixed Monday session, as investors bide their time ahead of Wednesday’s release of consumer price index data for June. We’re already seeing signs that tighter money is impacting real economic activity in the U.S., with homebuilders reporting steep slowdowns in sales and sharp upticks in cancellations last month. Tighter policy is also encouraging investors seeking safety, putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, through knock-on effects, draining even more liquidity from global markets. In his most recent note, Michael Howell reported that CrossBorder Capital’s Global Liquidity Index “is still testing a low reading of 29.5” within a range of 0 to 100. “Liquidity matters,” says Howell, CrossBorder Capital’s founder. He believes central banks are making another major error, this hammering too hard on the brake. “The world economy is now in a recession.” Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to discuss the developing “big liquidity squeeze” and the “world recession” he says is its cost. We also hear from Raoul Pal about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yUwdjU. Watch Friday’s full Daily Briefing episode featuring Raoul Pal and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3nVsvAs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management co-founder Jim Rogers joins Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rogers, discussing the possibility of a bear market, notes that he doesn’t have much confidence in the Federal Reserve. He also explains why he sees a lot of value in precious metals and agricultural commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Anne Stevenson-Yang, the co-founder and managing principal at J Capital Research, famously predicted the collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers. In China for 25 years, Anne’s been at the epicenter of its rapid economic ascent, in recent years researching opportunities on the long and short side. She joins Maggie Lake to discuss her unique career path, how her team puts together a report, and China’s history of expansion and retreat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surged and stocks sagged this morning, as investors now anticipate a 75 basis point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets July 26-27. Like other risk assets, Bitcoin is holding its ground in recent trading, tracking toward its best weekly since March. Raoul Pal is here with Maggie to break it all down and put it back together again. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3asy4mL. To view today's charts click here: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20220708204027/20220708_RVDB_Charts.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On the eve of one of the most consequential Jobs Fridays maybe ever, Jeffrey Snider says markets reflect an ongoing struggle between central bankers and investors. The former believe they must continue on their rate-hiking path. The latter, particularly bond investors, are showing far greater concern about economic growth. Snider, the chief strategist for Atlas Financial and the co-host of the popular Eurodollar University podcast, notes that multiple indicators, including eurodollar futures, suggest the Federal Reserve has it all wrong. Recent data show global macro deterioration; combine that with tightening liquidity conditions, and, Jeff notes, we have an equation for rising deflation. Jeff joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about investors, central bankers, and their tug of war. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3RhivyR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Institute of Supply Management’s services gauge sank to its lowest level in two years, mortgage demand declined despite falling rates, and the housing rental market cooled markedly, as evidence of economic slowdown accumulates. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, as revealed by the minutes to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. “The market is still in a process of pricing in or pricing out incremental tightening, as if there’s a spectrum of Fed activity,” explained Darius Dale in his daily note this morning. “But the Fed is waiting to achieve its signal before it does something different.” The Federal Reserve, according to Darius, is operating right now under a “singular” mandate, and that is to get inflation expectations re-anchored to its long-term 2% target. Darius, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about whether and when the Fed will respond to data other than inflation. We also get a sneak peak at Raoul Pal’s and Sam Bankman-Fried’s discussion about what’s happening in crypto and beyond these days. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3akrlLq. Catch Raoul’s conversation with SBF on Friday. And be sure to catch Raoul's conversation with SBF on Friday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term supply-demand story for oil and gas – highlighted by a look-in at Tony’s recent conversation with the infamous Doomberg about the complexities of hydrocarbons and their everyday use. Andreas and Tony also discuss the current condition of the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OGZ1ls. Watch the full interview with Doomberg and Tony Greer here: https://rvtv.io/3yh8toE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Realtor Steve Saretsky is the author of one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs. Steve joins Harry Melandri to talk about everything to do with Canada’s housing market. He’s bearish because mortgage rates are rising rapidly while consumer debt levels are already very high. Vancouver, Toronto, and other major Canadian markets have been red-hot for years. But people in those markets are now highly leveraged. Steve sorts through the implications and forecasts what’s next for housing in Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jason Buck’s story is wildly fascinating. When he was 19, he turned $2,000 into $100,000 simply by investing in tech stocks. A few years later, he was worth roughly $5 million. But he lost it all during the Global Financial Crisis, and he had to move in with his sister. It’s a wildly fascinating story, full of lessons about surviving, battling through adversity, and succeeding. Above all, as Jason shares with Maggie Lake, is to be always willing to learn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I’m keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX’s struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AeGKaR. Watch the full conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3OAxAcR. Watch Ash’s interview with Mark Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3yw0ghH. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks are sliding and bonds are rallying, as investors react to accumulating evidence that inflation will persist even though the economy is slowing down. There’s a word for that kind of scenario: stagflation. “The Fed is facing one of the worst predicaments of its existence,” tweeted Tavi Costa. “The US economy simply cannot handle the Fed’s continued monetary tightening." Costa, a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about the confluence of three macro extremes. We also hear from Hari Krishnan about how there may not be a solution for the Federal Reserve’s dilemma. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AklJeO. Watch the full conversation featuring Hari Krishnan and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnVhttps://rvtv.io/3xYSJG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. gross domestic product contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate, as consumer spending was weaker than originally forecast. The sense we’re heading for recession was heightened when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today at a European Central Bank forum that policymakers won’t let the economy slip into a "higher inflation regime" even if it means raising interest rates to levels that put growth at risk. He maintains U.S. household finances remain strong. “The Fed needs you to capitulate on summer travel in order for inflation to get under control,” says 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about receding inflation fear and rising recession risk. We also hear from Francis Gannon about how higher interest rates are driving a shift in market focus. And we share a segment from today’s Crypto Unwrapped episode on continuing upheaval in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ntyqa7. Watch the full conversation featuring Francis Gannon here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Tascha Che, Katie Talati, and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NufQyO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Russia defaulted on its external debt for the first time in more than a century, a technical breach brought about by historic sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s war-making machine. Equity indexes turned lower in afternoon trade following last week’s big rally but have basically shrugged off this development. Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vison’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about broader implications of Russia’s default on the global bond and energy markets. Boockvar and Larsen also discuss recent economic data and when we might expect to start seeing negative monthly prints in key indicators such as durable goods orders and retail sales. We also hear from Francis Gannon about why it may take a while for a market bottom to form. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yns8V6. Watch the full interview featuring Francis Gannon here: ttps://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe.. When the Fed hiked interest rates on June 13th to levels not seen since before the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic, Egon Von Greyerz was more wary than usual. As the Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management, he is no stranger to these sorts of fluctuations, but something about this particular rate hike seems different. He joins Harry Melandri to discuss the impending changes, the best way to measure returns, and why currency is not the way to go. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, talks with Maggie Lake about how new investors should approach crypto during a bear market, why he believes Bitcoin will make a comeback, and what lessons he's learned throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 2% heading into Friday’s close, even as the University of Michigan’s reading of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June. As its inflation-fighting efforts threaten growth, the Federal Reserve released results of its periodic “stress tests” showing that all subject banks passed. “Bear in mind,” tweeted Jim Bianco, “the Fed does NOT test for a massive policy error leading to soaring interest rates and huge losses. In other words, these tests, created and conducted by the Fed, assume the Fed never makes a mistake.” Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about markets, the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. We also hear from Eric Johnston about the market’s perception of the U.S. central bank and its ability to meet its own targets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yirRmq. Watch the full conversation featuring Eric Johnston and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3bpLTT0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Reserve’s commitment to cooling inflation remains “unconditional,” said Jerome Powell in a second day of congressional testimony, even as evidence from overseas indicates we’re heading for a slowdown. “Growth down, inflation expectations down, cracks start to appear in commodity momentum,” tweeted Andreas Steno Larsen. S&P Global’s preliminary Eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month low in June on slower demand growth. “We know that the manufacturing cycle is weakening fast,” Andreas noted, “but the service sector was anticipated to have a strong summer. This is now debatable.” Andreas joins Weston Nakamura to talk about Europe, while Weston provides an update on what’s happening in Asia. More broadly, they talk about whether the narrative focus is changing from “inflation” to “recession.” We also hear from Tian Yang about long-term constraints on commodity supplies. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bohJiR. Watch the full conversation featuring Tian Yang here: https://rvtv.io/3xHghji. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress on Wednesday, said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools. He also acknowledged that engineering a “soft landing” will be “very challenging.” Indeed, Bill Dudley, a former Fed governor, wrote today that “a recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.” Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined, as President Joe Biden floated a three-month federal gasoline tax holiday. The three major U.S. indexes held modest gains approaching the closing bell, as investors saw room in Powell’s words for a sooner-than-expected dovish turn. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the effort to control inflation without constraining growth and the market’s reaction to Powell’s testimony. We also hear from Tian Yang about the issue of the Fed’s credibility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ndy8Eh. And be on the lookout for Thursday’s release of the full Expert View session featuring Tian Yang. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 2% Tuesday, and it was the laggard among the major U.S. equity indexes as investors emerged from the three-day weekend buying with both hands. Energy stocks led the way, as West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $111 a barrel. Bloomberg data also show the refining business is doing very well amid this energy bull. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today’s big bounce and whether it signals the beginning of something bigger. Tony also shares his thoughts on crude oil, the 3:2:1 crack spread, and the durable role of fossil fuels in the modern economy. And we hear from Michael Howell about the accumulating evidence that we’re headed for a global recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/39E0AkP. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Howell and Jared Dillian here: https://rvtv.io/3y7gXQf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. The U.S. housing market boomed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand surged, as low interest rates fed a desire to find more space. What happens now, with the average 30-year mortgage rate up to 5.5% from 3.0% at the beginning of 2022? Nick Halaris of Metros Capital believes the market will remain resilient, and he explains why in a fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed is an experienced portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and the author of five award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. He joins Maggie Lake to explain how his toughest moments made him a stronger trader and why humility is an essential element of long-term success. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash welcomes Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, to assess the bigger picture after a tough week for equities and fixed income. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mUOI11. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II and Mark Ritchie here: https://rvtv.io/3OgNoks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“You don’t buy when there’s ‘blood in the streets,’” notes Darius Dale. “You buy when there’s a catalyst to clean it up.” U.S. equity indexes are bleeding today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding below the 30,000 mark. The question is, what is that catalyst, and when will it reveal itself? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to answer that question and to talk about today’s price action in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s biggest rate hike since 1994. According to Darius, “This trending volatility won’t end until the liquidity cycle inflects and speeds up the growth cycle bottom.” Mortgage rates have already exploded past 6%, a sign tighter monetary policy is already impacting consumers. How far will the Fed go to catch inflation? “Inflation KILLS societies,” says Darius. We also hear from Mark Ritchie II about how to manage risk in a volatile environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mRtaSP. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3O6f2RS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Open Market Committee announced the biggest increase to the federal funds rate in a quarter century, the Bank of Japan stepped up its “yield curve control” efforts, and the European Central Bank met on an emergency basis to address Italy and “fragmenting” bond yields, as monetary policymakers continue to struggle with a crazy, mixed-up macro environment. U.S equity indexes held onto solid gains following the Fed’s announcement of a 75-basis-point rate hike, and yields on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds declined. Seeking credibility, the Fed said it’s “strongly committed” to returning inflation to its 2% target. Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what today’s moves by the BoJ, the ECB, and the Fed mean for markets and the economy. We also share a segment from today's Crypto Unwrapped episode about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and recent price action in that volatile space. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mNNFzO. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode here: https://rvtv.io/3xT3viR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The producer price index was up 0.8% month over month and 10.8% on an annual basis in May, and Wall Street economists are racing to update forecasts for this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting to include a 75-basis-point rate hike. Stocks were mixed at midday, as prices of energy commodities continue to surge. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to explain why a fire at a Texas LNG plant caused U.S. natural gas prices to sag but European prices to surge. Tony also talks about the implications of longer-term supply constraints in the energy market. We also share a segment from today’s Real Visionaries episode where top traders share actionable strategies for trading amid today’s volatility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xOBGbq. Watch the full Real Visionaries conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3MSn2UZ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“I'm genuinely spooked,” Jared Dillian tweeted late Sunday night, as Asian markets opened sharply lower and U.S. equity futures pointed to a bleak Monday open on Wall Street, “and I don't spook easily.” Two hours shy of the close, every stock in the S&P 500 is down for the day, and that index is in “official” bear market territory. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note has surged past the 10-year, a dramatic inversion that’ll surely fuel talk of recession. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, is not waiting around to position for that eventuality and a bear market too: “70% of my portfolio is gold and bonds.” Dillian joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about today’s price action. And our expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, drops in for an update on a critical aspect of the global financial system ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. We also share a segment from today’s Cryptoverse Breaking News about the crashing crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OdWgaM. Watch the full Cryptoverse Breaking News segment here: https://rvtv.io/3txRgpg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Paul Hodges of The pH Report and New Normal Consulting joins Harry Melandri for a fascinating conversation on global macro. Hodges believes investors must stop paying attention to every move the Federal Reserve makes and must start paying attention to the fundamentals of equity analysis again. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jared Dillian’s journey is as unconventional as it is compelling. From serving in the U.S. Coast Guard to trading over a billion dollars a day on Wall Street, Dillian has seen and done more than most ever will. Dillian joins Maggie Lake to discuss some of his best and worst trades, and he explains his theory that every trader, in one way or another, is an artist. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the consumer price index increased 8.6% from a year ago and 1% from a month ago in May. Both readings exceeded expectations and re-centered for the Federal Reserve and the White House the problem of fixing 40-year-high inflation. According to Peter Boockvar, the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, "The odds of 50 basis points at the September meeting of the FOMC are back to 100%." Not coincidentally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index plumbed an all-time low in May. Boockvar joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today’s CPI report, the market’s reaction, and whether the Fed will be able to tame inflation and manage a “soft landing” for the economy at the same time. We also hear from Kyle Bass and Wil VanLoh about how money-printing and war have contributed to this historic inflation surge. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3O60H7h. Watch the full conversation featuring Kyle Bass and Wil VanLoh here: https://rvtv.io/3NEKq9v. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The three major U.S. equity indexes traded lower for a second consecutive day, as investors look forward to Friday’s release of consumer price index data for May. The European Central Bank is accelerating its own tightening scheme, as inflation’s grip on policymakers remains tight. Initial claims for unemployment insurance showed the biggest increase since July 21, a sign the labor market may be cooling. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about choppy price action, how he’s positioning himself ahead of Friday’s CPI release, what he sees the Federal Reserve doing about it, and why he’s trimming his long exposure. We also hear from Simon Mikhailovich about getting back to fundamentals and looking at things like balance sheets when it comes to making investment decisions. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xi5lIK. Watch the full video featuring Simon Mikhailovich here: https://rvtv.io/3QbSHnm. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equities slipped deeper into the red as the trading day progressed, after European stocks closed lower ahead of tomorrow’s interest-rate decision by the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has hit a fresh 20-year low against the dollar, a potentially contagious development for the global financial system. Real Vision’s expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, joins Ash Bennington at the top of today’s show to talk about the consequences for global markets of the yen’s historic weakness. And Darius Dale is here to talk about recent price action and market risks. “We’ll see new highs on yields if inflation misbehaves Friday,” says Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro. We also hear from Santiago Velez on a crypto regulation bill introduced in the U.S. Senate. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xdgBpS. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Santiago Velez, Ash Bennington, and Nico Brugge here: https://rvtv.io/3mtkeCZ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks were higher for a second straight day, but there’s another set of prices we should be paying attention to, according to Tony Greer. “We’re walking into the first full week of June with oil pressing the $120 highs, copper leaping 2.5% into moving average resistance, nickel bouncing 4% off trend support, wheat rallying 4% into resistance at $11, and natural gas trading at $9.” And the commodities rally shows few signs of letting up anytime soon. Indeed, the World Bank again cut its forecast for global economic expansion in 2022, warning that several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth lie ahead. Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about commodities, supply chains, inflation, and growth. We also hear from Christophe Ollari about what the Federal Reserve must do to bring down inflation and what it means for markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3aLdRZc. Watch the full conversation featuring Christophe Ollari and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3O2fhNl. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite were all well in the green deep into Monday’s trading session. “An oversold bounce is underway for the major indices in welcome relief from the downside momentum that characterized the preceding 7-8 weeks,” notes Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies. “We are viewing the oversold bounce as likely to present a selling opportunity.” Stockton joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about technical analysis and her bullish short-term and bearish long-term views on stocks. We also hear from Imran Lakha about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and recent price action in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3aybn0d. Watch the full conversation featuring Imran Lakha and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3auYlR8. To view Katie's charts click here: https://rvtv.io/3GXDj9D Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Dominic Frisby is a British author, comedian, and voice actor. He is best known as co-host of the television program Money Pit. He joins Harry Melandri to explain why tin is in the middle of an extraordinary bull market and outlines potential opportunities for investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Into The Cryptoverse founder, Benjamin Cowen is one of the most popular analysts in the cryptocurrency space. Cowen, a Ph.D. nuclear engineer, has leveraged his technical knowledge and Youtube reach to create an educational platform for digital assets. Benjamin shares insights on trading digital assets during a bear market, how to deal with market volatility, and why he abandoned an academic career to become a crypto quant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Nasdaq Composite led stock indexes to the downside on Jobs Friday, as an expectations-beating report on the May employment situation has investors believing the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive monetary tightening program. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research has long held that the “Fed Put,” in place since 2008-09, is now dead, killed by inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about today’s jobs report, the market’s response, and where the Fed goes from here. We also hear from Peter Zeihan about what constrained food and energy markets mean for the geomacro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ma3PmD. Watch the full conversation featuring Peter Zeihan and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3asGNoM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
OPEC and allies agreed to move forward production increases scheduled for September, but global energy supply problems continue to undermine the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight inflation in the U.S. That’s to say nothing of rising pressure on global food supply and production. Meanwhile, ahead of Friday’s official report on the employment situation for May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ADP reported private payrolls increased by just 128,000 last month. That’s the smallest gain of the pandemic-era recovery. Harry Melandri, advisor for Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about inflation, growth, and markets. And we hear from Neal Berger about why the Fed should just get it over with and hike by 100 basis points in a single move. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3M64iAY. Watch the full conversation featuring Neal Berger and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NRmrDM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We are experiencing technical issues - please head over to our YouTube to watch the livestream. The recording will be up on the website soon after we go off air. The Institute for Supply Management reported that May factory activity exceeded consensus expectations, another sign of resilience for the U.S. economy. “Today’s ISM Manufacturing data represents a decent middle finger to us growth cycle bears - although the market doesn’t seem to care,” said Darius Dale. Still, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro believes the global downturn is not adequately priced into equity markets. Darius joins Andreas Steno Larsen to unpack the May ISM data, the economy, and recent price action. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3m7TtE1. Watch the full interview with Charlie Morris and Michael Nicoletos here: https://rvtv.io/3PUGvHu. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Though West Texas Intermediate backed off its intraday high of $119.98, a fresh surge for crude oil has analysts invoking the old “the cure for high prices is high prices” chestnut. Food and energy costs are already dragging down household sentiment, as US consumer confidence fell in May to the lowest since February. And oil’s surge may have only just begun. “Energy prices are set to blow minds this week,” tweeted Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator. “I love that there is still a bearish camp out there talking ‘demand destruction’ because it helps you stay in the trade.” Tony joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about energy and inflation. We also hear from Keith Weiner on the future of gold. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3zd27su. Watch the full conversation between Keith Weiner and Mike Green here: https://rvtv.io/3wY0tsa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's original series My Life in 4 Trades – be sure to subscribe. Peter Boockvar identifies the keys to managing stress while trading. He also shares his regret at never having a mentor throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Perth Tolle is the Founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. She joins Harry Melandri to detail why emerging markets with limited regulation will perform more sustainably than emerging markets with heavier governmental control. She explains the variables that go into Life + Liberty’s allocation strategy (“freedom weighting”) and also touches on global macro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, Peter Boockvar, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his fascinating career journey. Boockvar explains how to strategically size a position and shares how he learned to manage risk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“The next several weeks are going to be rather brutal for markets,” says Raoul, “and bonds are likely to be your only friend as the market begins to price in an immediate, sharp recession, then a Fed pivot in the summer.” Real Vision’s co-founder and CEO joins Andreas Steno Larsen to expand on that forecast as chatter about “peak inflation” and a “soft landing” are rising, global equity fund inflows are surging, and stocks are closing out their first positive week in the last nine. Are we at a major turning point? Or is this simply a bounce within a bear market? Raoul shares his current thoughts about the economy, stocks, bonds, and crypto, emphasizing caution now with an eye on opportunities in the future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MQzC7Y. Watch Raoul’s special flash update here: https://rvtv.io/3LYrYHo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It was 126 years ago today, on May 26, 1896, that Charles Dow first published the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the Customer's Afternoon Letter. “He was a man after my own heart,” tweeted Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and Maggie Lake’s guest for today’s Daily Briefing. The Dow is celebrating its anniversary with a 600-point surge, following through on Wednesday’s post-FOMC-minutes-release rally. But Tony has his eyes on the disconnect between commodity prices and inflation expectations. “I think they will converge again soon,” he tweeted. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated its estimate of first-quarter GDP contraction from 1.4% to 1.5%. Tony and Maggie talk commodities and inflation, and we also hear from Cathie Wood about the macro environment and the long-term forecast for growth tech. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3LNIx8L. And keep an eye out for Cathie’s interview with Raoul – it drops tomorrow.... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Federal Reserve officials acknowledged an “uncertain” economic environment but forecast “solid” growth and continuing strength in the labor market, as minutes to the May FOMC meeting revealed a general consensus behind at least a couple more 50-basis-point rate hikes. The Fed also noted that “restrictive policy may become appropriate.” Stocks struggled for footing in the immediate aftermath of the minutes’ release. George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the May FOMC minutes and the impact of tightening real financial conditions on markets and the economy. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco about the repercussions of a widespread loss of faith in the Fed. And we get a look at today’s episode of the new Real Vision series Crypto Unwrapped. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38IF1iQ. Watch the full conversation between Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg. Watch the Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Leslie Lamb, Ash Bennington, and Paul Guerra here: https://rvtv.io/38iDcZF. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks sagged early, with social media stocks dragging the Nasdaq down more than 3% on bearish earnings guidance from Snap Inc., but rallied off the lows in a move presaged by Thomas Thornton right before noon ET. “Seeing most ETFs down on the day but lifting over today's volume-weighted average prices, which, if those levels can hold, is a positive,” tweeted Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry. Thornton joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about today’s price action in the broader (bullish or bearish?) context. And we hear from Dario Perkins, managing director at Global Macro, about the bursting of the “everything bubble” and the impact of rising interest rates on equity valuations. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lEctcV. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3sU59hz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has logged eight consecutive losing weeks, but it’s leading the U.S. equity indexes to the upside today with a gain of more than 2%. Perhaps investors are looking at stocks with Jared Dillian’s style of optimism. “If we get a recession, and it looks like we will,” notes Dillian, “it will be a much easier trading environment than what we’ve been dealing with. Fed easing policy is always easier than Fed tightening policy.” Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to make his case for a developing risk-on environment. We also hear from Francis “The Market Sniper” Hunt about Bitcoin and its correlation to old-school financial asset prices. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38DtmSo. Watch the full conversation between Francis Hunt and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3LG8cAq. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Handling stress is one of the most difficult things investors are faced with daily. Howard Lindzon shares his insights on how to manage stress and why finding a good mentor can be a game changer in life and work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. One of the biggest names in global macro, David Rosenberg, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the possible return of deflation, global supply chain issues, and what the next 12 months could look like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Howard Lindzon joins Maggie Lake to discuss how a lifelong passion for comedy led to his success in the early days of the internet. He also touches on de-globalization and why finding a unicorn isn’t as important as it may seem. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A surprise rate cut by the People’s Bank of China boosted equity futures early Friday, and stocks did open higher. But any optimism the Federal Reserve would follow the PBoC’s dovish example and not “hike until it hurts” faded before noon. "They are going to break inflation,” says Jim Bianco, “and if they break you along the way, so be it." The S&P 500 slipped into official “bear market” territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track for its eighth consecutive down week, the longest such streak since 1923. Bianco, President of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the implications of a hawkish Fed and the possibility of a global recession. And we hear from Dario Perkins about the “tangible” opportunity that may follow this period of slowing growth. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wvTE24. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3wyGYYf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Do U.S. investors pay enough attention to what’s happening in overseas markets? Real Vision’s expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, shares some data at the top of today’s Daily Briefing that may open your eyes to underlying systemic cracks growing in China and Japan. Then, Maggie Lake is joined by Peter Boockvar, who’s concerned about how a slowing world economy will impact companies. “I think the main story now is margin contraction and the direction of earnings,” says the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group. “We now have P/E multiples compressing, profit margins rolling over, and the growing prospect that sales will slow in response to both supply issues and the growing prospect of an economic slowdown. It’s a perfect storm.” Is there more pain to come? Peter thinks so. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wvTE24. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“This is risk-off behavior returning,” tweeted Michael Gayed less than an hour into today’s trading session, which, two hours ahead of the close, has seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average decline 2.9%, the S&P 500 shed 3.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite nosedive 4.0%. Investors are digesting a second disappointing earnings report from a major U.S. retailer, as Target followed Walmart with more data indicating inflation is, finally, having an impact on U.S. consumer behavior. Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how inflation will turn into deflation and why equity indexes are looking at another major leg down. With risk assets highly correlated at present, this is an ominous sign for the cryptocurrency market as well. That’s a major topic of discussion in the debut episode of Real Vision’s Crypto Unwrapped series. We also hear from Jeff Moore about the Federal Reserve being late and bond market volatility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/381fvoA. Watch the full interview featuring Jeff Moore and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3McSPAj. Watch the first Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Weston Nakamura, Nicolas Brugge, and Leslie Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3lkyrS6. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Neither pandemic nor war can keep down the American consumer, even as persistent inflation and supply-chain breakdowns continue to vex economists, policymakers, and financial media talking-heads. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in April, and the figure for March was revised upward to 1.4% from 0.5%, data that reflect resilient demand. At the same time, industrial production was up a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in April, beating a consensus forecast of 0.5% and accelerating from 0.9% in March. U.S. equity indexes rallied on the solid economic data. But Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, has concerns. Though he thinks we’ve reached peak inflation, he warns we could be stuck at a higher plateau for longer. “The CPI is caught in a tug-of-war between the cyclical basket, which is driven by energy, re-opening sectors, and supply chains, and the structural basket, which is driven by shelter, services, and wages. Due to base effects, cyclical dis-inflation should outweigh structural reflation until the end of the year.” Deluard joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the “transitory narrative” and how investors can and should position for the persistence of secular inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mrt13y. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes ground generally higher through the trading session Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 breaking into the green but the Nasdaq Composite struggling in negative territory. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped by six basis points to 2.88%, as bonds caught a bid on economic growth concerns. Recent data from China indicate President Xi’s “COVID Zero” policy is exerting a tremendous drag on the domestic economy, with down-the-line impacts on the global economy sure to follow, including supply-chain snarls. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned of a "very, very high risk" of a US recession. Eric Johnston, head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about short-, medium-, and long-term direction for stocks, recent macro data, and earnings. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, about whether the Fed has not just the policy tools but the general resolve to do what has to be done to end inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wsV3Ff. Watch the full interview featuring Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital LLC, joins Harry Melandri to discuss his bullish case for precious metal mining, particularly in the exploration part of the industry. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Carson Block joins Maggie Lake to discuss how he went from feeling like an outsider to being an insider in the finance community. Carson explains how writing one report unveiling fraudulent activity at a publicly-traded Chinese company led to the creation of Muddy Waters Research and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Markets rebounded sharply Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its first positive trading session after six consecutive down days. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said engineering a soft landing would involve “some pain,” as the central bank remains on track for 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in more than a decade, as April data from the University of Michigan survey showed a drop from 65.2 to 59.1. The average per-gallon price of gasoline hit a new high and continues to weigh on the minds of Americans. And the geopolitical situation promises more constraints on key energy and food supplies. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the energy market’s impact on the broader market. We also hear from Alex Gurevich, who says there’s a 0% chance of a soft landing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3NfvoGC. Watch the full interview featuring Alex Gurevich and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3w9TH38. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Keeping with the prevailing theme, the U.S producer price index for April came in at a red-hot, consensus-forecast-beating year-over-year reading of 11%, yet another indication that inflation persists. Reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve’s late hawkishness, if not its recent rate hikes, U.S. mortgage rates jumped again this week to 5.3%, the highest since July 2009. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped below 2.9% on flight-to-safety buying. Nevertheless, as Imran Lakha notes, “The move in bond yields has been wild this year. The total return in bonds hasn’t been this bad in decades.” Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss how tighter monetary policy is impacting financial markets. Meanwhile, with developments in the cryptocurrency market putting the word “contagion” back in circulation, Raoul Pal drops in for a flash update about recent price action across asset classes. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3l2Tk3Y Watch the full Macro Insider Flash Update here: https://rvtv.io/3M4bwpX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The consumer price index for April came in at 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and 8.3% year over year, exceeding estimates on both measures and establishing once again that inflation is going to stick around at elevated levels for the foreseeable future. After opening to the upside, the major U.S. equity indexes surrendered gains and slid into the close. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note crossed above 3% early in the day before settling at 2.91%. Investors continue to grapple with the prospect of the Federal Reserve aggressively hiking borrowing costs into what looks more and more like a slowing global economy. Existing supply-chain constraints will only be exacerbated by lockdowns in China, and the U.S. consumer can only carry things so far. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss how markets are digesting changes in central bank policy and where this re-pricing may take us. Real Vision Crypto Editor Ash Bennington drops in to shed some light on TerraUSD losing its peg to the U.S. dollar, and we hear from Gene Munster about tech bright prospects in 2023. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3L3sSC8 Watch the full interview with Gene Munster and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3l2GgeZ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes jumped at the open, faded into lunchtime, and rallied into the last couple of hours of regular trading Tuesday in a session that reflected the general volatility defining financial markets right now. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, saw underlying weakness early today. “Everything was up but breaking volume-weighted average price levels, which was a good read on underlying selling,” Thornton tweeted this morning. “And it’s now evident to everyone.” At the same time, Thornton is “really getting excited with this opportunity-rich market.” It’s “not yet” time for long ideas, “but soon” it will be, notes Thornton, as investors continue to weigh the Federal Reserve’s effort to control inflation and sustain growth at the same time. Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the major factors driving markets and what he’s looking for before he starts going long again. And Real Vision Crypto Editor Ash Bennington joins at the top of the show to talk about Bitcoin’s recent price action and whether we need to fear a “crypto contagion” causing a wider market crash. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38gJ9WM Watch the full video with Dwight Anderson and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3LYBPOe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Dow Jones Industrial average was down 1.3%, the S&P 500 2.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, late in Monday’s trading, as last week’s sell-off continues. Ongoing supply chain problems, new pandemic-related lockdowns in China, and Russia’s war on Ukraine only make the Federal Reserve’s choices more complex as it tries to restrain inflation without tanking the economy. The yield curve steepened sharply, with the difference between the five-year note and the 30-year bond widening to a six-week high. “The bond market is doing the Federal Reserve’s job for them,” notes Jared Dillian. “The Fed is too slow in raising the federal funds rate, so the bond market is taking over.” Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what the bond market knows, what the equity market is figuring out, and what investors can do to protect themselves amid surging volatility. And we hear from Pierre Andurand, CIO of Andurand Capital, about how structural issues plaguing commodities markets could trigger a global financial crisis. Watch the full interview with Pierre Andurand and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3MYL3dx Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3N0C0IX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Ross Gerber is the Co-Founder, President, and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. Ross and his team oversee $2.2 billion of investments focused on technology, clean energy and transportation, and more. Ross joins Harry Melandri to break down why he believes Tesla has so much room for growth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Legendary Trader, Peter Brandt, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his unprecedented financial journey. Peter sheds light on the early mistakes he made on the floor, what it was like to run his own company, and everything he learned along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The April nonfarm payroll figure topped consensus forecasts, and the unemployment rate held at 3.6%. A slight retreat in the labor force participation rate surprised, but, overall, more evidence of a tight labor market should brace a Federal Reserve as it effects an aggressive tightening cycle. That’s despite the fact that, when it comes to growth, we’re looking at “three straight quarters of almost nothing besides inventory along with a growing catalog of economic data more like Q1 GDP than anything.” So observes Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments. Meanwhile, the threat of global recession amid war in Eastern Europe and rising geopolitical tensions augurs a new world order. We hear from Peter Zeihan and Dee Smith. Is the Fed hiking rates into a downturn? How is the market responding to the central bank’s rapid tone shift? And what will investors do should the situation devolve into a real collateral crisis? Snider joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about whether the Fed is up to the challenges it faces. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ylWN5I. Watch the full interview with Peter Zeihan and Dee Smith here: https://rvtv.io/3kJBIKy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes rallied hard during Jerome Powell’s post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference yesterday, posting the biggest rally in two years because the Federal Reserve Chair said the central bank was not “actively considering” a 75-basis-point rate hike. Today, 95% of the S&P 500 is trading lower, The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off more than 700 points, and the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged as high as 3.106% before settling at 3.09%, its highest level since 2018, as investors seem to be more and more accepting of the fact that the Fed will continue to aggressively fight inflation, at the risk of equity valuations and economic growth. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about today’s price action and central bank policy as well as natural gas and other critical commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vJLkLB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Open Market Committee agreed to raise the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points and to begin shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in June by $47.5 billion, with the runoff pace to reach a maximum of $95 billion per month after three months. The FOMC noted in its statement that “ongoing” increases to the fed funds target rate will be appropriate. The central bank’s quest now is to find some “neutral” rate of interest without tipping the economy into recession. “The last time the Fed made a 50-basis-point move was March 2000,” notes Darius Dale. “The dot-com bubble burst shortly thereafter, with the S&P 500 losing 50% and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 80% from 2000 peak to 2002 trough.” Equity indexes were mixed shortly after the FOMC announcement and shortly ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Fed, the economy, and how the “smart money” is reacting to quarterly earnings reports. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3y9meHD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Not since March 2000 has the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 50-basis-point increase to the federal funds target rate. Now, the FOMC is a day away from doing just that. And traders are pricing in near-even-money odds of a 75-basis-point hike in June. The FOMC is also expected to introduce its plan to reduce the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on Wednesday, a process with its own implications for interest rates. U.S. equity indexes held solid gains late Tuesday. Factory orders for March rose a better-than-expected 2.2%, job openings reached an all-time high of 11.5 million, and U.S. natural gas prices hit a 13-year high on growing concern supply will fall short of demand this summer. The data suggest the Fed has room to do what it needs to do to fight inflation. But, as Warren Pies notes, “Oil is driving this market…” And there are structural factors at play that could make the central bank’s job impossible. Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura to talk about today’s price action, tomorrow’s decision by the FOMC, and the prospect of stagflation afflicting the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kEtIKN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hard-core technical analysts will tell you that, ultimately, “price” is the only thing that matters. Countless investors, traders, and speculators making decisions about the values of assets will contemplate just about every conceivable issue. “Price” is where all that shows up. Today, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond surged past 3% to a three-year high, as the market braces for the first 50-basis-point increases to the federal funds target rate since March 2000 at Wednesday’s conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Stocks opened mostly higher but slid into the red as the trading day wore on. The Nasdaq Composite is coming off its worst month since 2008, and the S&P 500 is off to its worst start to a year since 1939. Still, as Dave Floyd sees it, “Most traders and investors are not prepared for the perfect storm we are all facing.” Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about what technical indicators are telling him about the current condition of the market and how traders and investors can prepare for what’s coming. And we hear briefly from Raoul Pal about the assets you should be eyeing in these volatile times. To join Raoul on his multi-week journey of learning and discovery for global recession, Is Everyone Wrong, go to https://rvtv.io/3s0ep3d. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3765Uw4 ... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, joins MI2's Harry Melandri on the debut episode of The Next Big Trade to discuss his unique financial journey, potential opportunities in US bond markets, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Fan favorite and skilled trader, Tony Greer, joins Maggie Lake in a special live edition to share how exactly he went from being on the exchange floor to running his own company, TG Macro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes traded lower today, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.7% two hours before the close of regular trading and headed toward its worst month since 2008. The S&P 500 was down 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.5%. Inflation remains the major overhang, with supply-chain disruptions as well as high food and energy prices only made worse by pandemic and war and the authorities’ responses to those crises. The Federal Reserve has turned aggressively hawkish, but its efforts to tighten monetary conditions into a slowing economy threaten to bring about recession. Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, stagflation, and recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MDmdzM. To join Raoul on his multi-week journey of learning and discovery for global recession, Is Everyone Wrong, go to https://rvtv.io/3s0ep3d. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes were well in the green Thursday afternoon despite the fact that gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 1.4% during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Earnings reports continue to reflect consumer resilience in the face of historic inflation, even as the conflict in Eastern Europe metastasizes and the situation in Japan – with the central bank still trying to control the yield curve but the government pushing for a stronger yen – threatens a fiscal crisis. “The bottom line with the U.S. economy is where the breaking point is with respect to the consumer response to ever-rising prices,” notes Peter Boockvar. “We are moving closer to it, and there are signs here and there that we are hitting it. But, from what I’ve heard from company CEOs, we’re not there yet.” Boockvar, the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the economy, inflation, and today’s price action. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OCdmQu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Prices for assets of all kinds were up Wednesday, including stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, and global bond yields marched higher. That’s despite the emergence of still more signs of underlying weakness, including Robinhood laying off 9% of its workforce. And Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in the latest escalation of the war in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will meet tomorrow to discuss monetary policy, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains committed to an accommodative stance despite the yen’s historic weakness. China, too, is sticking with accommodation, as President Xi Jinping said the government will support major infrastructure projects in cities impacted by renewed coronavirus lockdowns. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Weston Nakamura to talk about financial markets, geopolitics, and the odds central banks are able to engineer a soft landing for the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Lpk36q Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite leading to the downside with a 3.0% loss two hours short of the close of the day’s regular trading, the S&P 500 off 2.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by 1.6%. Today’s selling reflects concern about growth in the face of what seems to be inexorable inflation, as widespread COVID-19 testing in Beijing augurs a lockdown of the biggest city in the world’s second-largest economy. Concerning the war in Eastern Europe, Moscow will stop sending natural gas to Poland on Wednesday, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned there’s a “serious” risk of nuclear war over Ukraine. The Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish tone is having its effect, as mortgage rates have moved sharply higher. Home prices are still rising, but new home purchases slipped 8.6% to a 763,000 annualized pace. Mortgage refinance demand is also slowing rapidly. “But there's all this pent up demand they said... not at higher rates there isn’t,” notes Steven Van Metre. Van Metre, founder of Steven Van Metre Financial, says interest rates will eventually go down again, to new record lows, as a simple matter of supply and demand. He joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about growth, inflation, and the trajectory of interest rates. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vhH31G Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 in the red but the tech-heavy Nasdaq holding a modest gain on reports that Elon Musk is nearing a deal to take Twitter private. Investors continue to grapple with the fact that the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening monetary policy into what appears to be a slowing economy. As Mark Ritchie II notes, this “feels like a potential lose-lose for riskier assets.” Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer at RTM Capital Advisors, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action, relative strength, and whether the Fed will be able to engineer a soft landing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3k8eqxw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Using hedge fund strategies and venture strategies to construct client portfolios. Thanks for watching The Interview, the premier business and finance interview series in the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Seasoned investor, Mish Schneider, joins Maggie to discuss her career paths in both trading and teaching, becoming one of the first female traders on the New York Stock Exchange, and so much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Yesterday, Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy aggressively to fight inflation, noting that a 50-basis-point hike is on the table for the May Federal Open Market Committee meeting. U.S. stocks, still processing the Fed’s hawkish pivot, are well in the red Friday, with the major equity indexes all down nearly 2%. According to Jared Dillian, “The curve will continue to flatten in such fashion until 2s are at 3% and 10s are at 2% (or thereabouts) and we will have a massively inverted curve at the end of this.” Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, thinks we’re headed for recession. He joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the bond market, central banking, and the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3s6Xpsb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The U.S. dollar climbed to a fresh two-decade peak to the Japanese yen on Wednesday, this latest move catalyzed by Federal Reserve officials pushing for more aggressive interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues to defend its ultra-accommodative policy. Policymakers there believe inflation is indeed transitory and that capping interest rates remains the wise course. But this divergence is creating unprecedented tension in the bond and forex markets. According to Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, “The bond market, the banking system, and the financial system are not really designed to have the entire bond market lose 10% of its value in four months. Every other time we’ve seen this we have run into problems.” Bianco joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the Japanese yen’s systemic significance, the Fed’s fight against inflation, and the trajectory of the U.S. and the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mn1Syk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is the Bank of Japan brewing up a Netflix-blockbuster-level disaster with its dogged adherence to “yield curve control”? Is Netflix itself a blockbuster-level disaster with its declining subscriber numbers? The U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high against the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan announced it would buy an unlimited amount of fixed-rate 10-year Japanese government bonds at 0.25% from April 21 through April 26. And shares of the pandemic-era stock market darling plunged 37% today after management reported a 200,000 decline in paying customers during its most recent quarter. The BoJ is desperate to hold interest rates down as other global central banks push for tighter monetary conditions. Netflix is desperate to boost revenue growth; it’ll crack down on password-sharing and consider a lower-priced ad-supported tier. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura to talk about Japan, Netflix, and markets in general on today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vwOfG3 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The major U.S. equity indexes were all up more than 1% late in Monday’s regular trading session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading the way with a 1.85% gain. Stocks today seem to reflect a strong start to earnings reporting season. According to Bloomberg, 38 of the 48 S&P 500 components that have reported so far have posted positive surprises. Earlier in the day, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 2.93%, a level the benchmark rate hasn’t seen since 2018, as bond investors continue to price in the impact of Federal Reserve efforts to fight inflation. U.S. natural gas prices eased off after hitting 13-year highs ahead of an unusual April snowstorm in the Northeast. Crude oil slid nearly 5% on Tuesday, as the International Monetary Fund cut its 2022 and 2023 global growth forecasts. And broader concerns about global resource constraints amid the war in Eastern Europe linger. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the stock market rally, commodities, energy, and inflation, and the problem the Federal Reserve faces in trying to stabilize prices without triggering a recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vsVH5c. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“The Fed has been in the business of suppressing volatility in financial assets for most of the post-Global Financial Crisis period,” notes Bill Zox, “but they are out of that business now.” According to Zox, co-portfolio manager at Brandywine Capital, tighter financial conditions to contain inflation mean wider credit spreads and lower equity prices. Zox joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about opportunities for investors in the high-yield bond market amid unprecedented uncertainty at the macro level. War in Eastern Europe has only added to global inflationary pressures. But close to 20% of high-yield is in energy companies and other commodities producers that benefit from an inflationary environment. And inflation is good for credit quality, as the value of fixed-rate debt declines and principal and interest payments are made in inflated dollars. As Zox explains, high-yield can be hit particularly hard by volatility and illiquidity. But, as long as you can hold through these periods, “this is what creates the long-term opportunity.” Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MexfLo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why did global equities stage their biggest rally since November 2020 upon the official launch of a monetary tightening cycle at the March 2022 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee? Why was this decisive risk-on move in stocks led by the tech sector, as front-end bond yields surged, curves collapsed, and dot plots adjusted? And why are the vast majority of market commentators confused, with no consensus explanation forming for this indiscriminate demand for shares as the Fed finally moves off the zero bound? Weston Nakamura explains the sustained upside in global equity markets in the aftermath of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Award-winning hedge fund manager and market commentator, Hugh Hendry, joins Maggie to break down his fascinating career, what he learned from 17th century rice traders, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. surged past 5% for the first time since 2011 this week, up from 4.72% last week, as the market continues to price in an aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve. Inflation remains the dominant factor for policy makers, investors, and consumers. In fact, as Jared Dillian notes, it’s time to think about the unthinkable: hyperinflation. Policy choices have fed into structural factors to create an upward producer and consumer price spiral that the Fed and other central banks will be hard-pressed to control. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the macro picture, gold, and why Elon Musk would be good for Twitter. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/37P5H0u Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report on the producer price index for March showed the biggest month-over-month and year-over-year gains on record, 1.4% and 11.2%, respectively, as inflation continues to dominate the discourse. The PPI data follow the hottest consumer price index reading in 40 years, 8.5%. As the Federal Reserve continues to try to convince markets and consumers it’s serious about tightening monetary conditions and reining in spiraling prices, policymakers in China and Japan press on with accommodation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Japanese yen’s role in the global financial system and the worrying signals he’s seeing in forex markets. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Fed, markets, and inflation as we head into a critical earnings-reporting season. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EeUTF4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5% in March compared to a year earlier, another new 40-year-high following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Energy and agriculture markets remain the critical areas of focus, each of them adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes surged on a slower-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month CPI increase, and many economists see this as a potential peak in this inflationary period. The Federal Reserve has left the door open for a 50 basis point increase to its federal funds rate target, and “quantitative tightening” is set to commence in May. But there’s little to suggest inflation will recede toward the central bank’s 2% target anytime soon. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to discuss commodities, inflation, central bank policy, and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JtPfzO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Consumer Price Index for March is going to generate a lot of headlines when it’s released on Tuesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. That’s still the No. 1 issue confronting policymakers and investors, and, given the constraints on energy and agricultural commodities exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that’s likely to be the case for some time. Will the Federal Reserve tighten policy to the point of economic recession? Matt Peron, Director of Research at Janus Henderson Investors, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about where we are in the market cycle, inflation, and the merits of dividends. At the top of the show, Ash Bennington shares an update on cryptocurrency markets in the aftermath of the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3rejLHK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What did Rick Rule learn from renowned investor, Warren Buffett? He shares that with Maggie on a bonus edition of My Life in 4 Trades Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Legendary trader, Rick Rule, joins Maggie Lake on the debut episode of My Life in 4 Trades to discuss his journey investing in natural resource securities, the companies he has financed across the globe, and the most important lessons he’s learned along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The U.S. dollar index hit 100 for the first time in two years on Friday, surging on the prospect of a more aggressive monetary tightening cycle on top of an increasingly fraught geopolitical landscape. Signs of inflation abound, even as the Federal Reserve asserts its hawkishness at every opportunity. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index jumped nearly 13% in March to a new record high, with disruptions to global trade flows, specifically passage through the crucial Black Sea, fueling fears of food shortages. And prices for agricultural commodities continue to rise. U.S. equity indexes were mixed two hours before Friday’s close of regular trading, with tech stocks giving back much of what was gained on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched a new three-year high. Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree Asset Management, joins Warren Pies on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the U.S. dollar, supply chain disruptions, and inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xenRmT Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
WTI gave back early gains today, as member-states of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from storage in a follow-up move to President Joe Biden’s plan to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for 180 million barrels. There are also questions about whether eurozone authorities will be able to keep Russian oil off the market. Chinese officials provided more rhetorical support for stepping up monetary stimulus for the economy to boost consumption at an “appropriate time,” acknowledging that domestic and global risks are now more significant than previously forecast. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show the U.S. central bank plans to begin to run off its $9 trillion balance sheet at a $1 trillion per year annualized pace beginning in May. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said today he’d like to see a 3.5% fed funds rate by the second half of 2022 and favors a 50-basis-point hike at the FOMC’s meeting next month. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss crude oil prices, Chinese monetary policy, and the Fed’s new hawkishness. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JkKDM6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting reveal that the U.S. central bank plans to begin reducing its balance sheet as soon as after the FOMC’s May meeting. Policymakers discussed monthly caps for asset runoffs, $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities and $60 billion for Treasuries. The plan includes a phase-in period of three months, or modestly longer, but the monthly total cap of $95 billion is significantly higher than the last time the Federal Reserve tried to shrink its balance sheet. The Fed’s hawkish tone was underscored by the fact that multiple members conceded that at least one rate hike of 50 basis points may be warranted and that they might have voted for one of that magnitude in March but for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presenting a new challenge to growth. U.S. equity markets slipped further into the red following the minutes’ release, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to a three-year high. Real Vision is in San Diego for this week’s Macro Experience event, where we continue to meet face to face with some of our favorite guests. Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the FOMC minutes and the central bank’s efforts to fight inflation while supporting growth on today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3NLQFsR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting set for release on Wednesday, financial markets continue to search for direction. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said today a faster pace of rate increases may be warranted, with 50 basis points on the table for May. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard noted the central bank will raise interest rates steadily and will begin reducing its balance sheet as soon as next month. Brainard, normally a dovish voice, also noted that balance-sheet reduction could proceed “at a rapid pace.” U.S. equity indexes lingered in the red at midday, as bond prices sagged on Brainard’s comments. The question now is how aggressively the Fed will move after having indulged the “transitory” fantasy too long. Real Vision is in San Diego for this week’s Macro Experience event, where we continue to meet face to face with some of our favorite guests. Mish Schneider, Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com, joins Maggie Lake to talk about the Fed’s approach to inflation on today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3LHARWe and check out our new podcast, My Life in 4 trades right here: https://www.realvision.com/podcast/mylifein4trades/page/1 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today marks 40 days since Russia invaded Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes hold solid gains as we near Monday’s close in New York, with Asian and European stocks having already ended normal trading sessions well in the green. Energy commodity prices continue to react to developments in Eastern Europe, with crude oil rising today on reports the European Union is planning to impose more sanctions on Moscow. A key section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted after the two-year exceeded the 10-year last week. The issue of inflation and the question of recession loom ahead of Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Meanwhile, shares of Twitter soared 30% after Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed in a regulatory filing that he’s taken a 9.2% stake in the social media company. Real Vision is in San Diego for this week’s Macro Experience event, where we’ll have a chance to meet face to face with some of our favorite guests. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Maggie Lake to talk markets and stocks on today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3j6CBvI Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the wake of the pandemic, Jim Bianco believes that “there is a wholesale change underway in the economy.” But is it all doom and gloom from here? Not necessarily. We appear to be in a period of transition, which, historically, has also been a catalyst for economic progression. Bianco introduces Martin Fleming, Michael Drury, and Sal Mercogliano to discuss the changes we’re experiencing today, how they're impacting the economy, and what the future could begin to look like. Recorded on March 13, 2022 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Positioning for a crisis is no easy feat but Mike Green was one of the few traders that was able to profit during the pandemic while others were left asking the same question: “what the hell is going on?” While Green was positioned well for the pandemic, it wasn’t all plain sailing. Just what are the psychological aspects of trading in situations like these? In addition to describing his philosophy at the time, Green reveals his state of mind during the pandemic and some of the methods that helped him stay level-headed while “constantly” second-guessing trades during a period of rampant uncertainty. Filmed on January 20, 2022 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about volatility across markets, the economy, and geopolitics. Stocks closed out their first losing quarter in two years on Thursday, and U.S. bonds had their worst three-month period in more than 40 years. The eurozone’s inflation rate jumped to another record high in March. Although prices dipped for the fifth straight day today, crude oil is 44.7% higher than it was a year ago, up 32% in February alone. The U.S. economy once again added more than 400,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, but companies across many industries say they’re struggling to find workers. And war continues to rage in Eastern Europe. What’s Raoul’s take? Get your questions ready, and drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3x1pDYm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
President Joe Biden announced a plan to release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next six months as part of the federal government’s effort to fight inflation. Releasing 180 million barrels from the SPR is an unprecedented step. But it’s unclear whether it will have a meaningful impact on oil prices. Earlier Thursday, OPEC+ ratified a 432,000 barrel per day production increase as of May, but that increase is in line with the cartel’s plan; it is not responding to oil consumers’ calls for significant output boosts. Oil investors everywhere seem to be holding the line for only gradual production increases, despite the ongoing crisis in Eastern Europe. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy at TD Securities, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the global crude oil market, current constraints on production and supply, and inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IV7RbE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Japanese yen, long a safe haven, is not reacting to crisis this time around the way it has in the past. In fact, the yen just broke through a key long-term level of technical support and is trading at six-year lows versus the U.S. dollar. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to defend the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, in place to sustain accommodative monetary policy, despite broader risks to the domestic situation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake to assess the global implications of the country’s continuing efforts to stimulate growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the impact of tighter policy on the housing market, and the employment situation in the U.S. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36Zk3uw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Although no formal agreements have been reached, Moscow has said it will redeploy troops and reduce military activity around Kyiv, and Ukraine has said it will adopt a neutral stance in exchange for a Russian ceasefire, stoking optimism the end of the war in Eastern Europe is in sight. Delegates from Russia and Ukraine met face-to-face in Istanbul Tuesday, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying the discussions had yielded the most significant progress to date. Equity indexes in Europe closed higher across the board, and U.S. stocks are holding solid gains two hours shy of the close of regular trading in New York. Meanwhile, the bond market is on course for its worst quarterly loss on record after the Federal Reserve launched its monetary tightening efforts this month and signaled the potential for more aggressive hikes. With tensions seemingly easing in Eastern Europe, inflation remains the major threat to global growth. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies to talk about the market’s response to Russia-Ukraine and the Fed’s response to inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ljle6U. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As Jared Dillian puts it, when the prices of things we need are going higher and the prices of things we want are going lower, “it creates economic misery.” Things we need include fossil fuels and agricultural commodities. Things we want include stocks and bonds. In 2022, with stock and bond prices falling and commodity prices rising, wealth has evaporated, and the cost of living has increased. And the thing is, to seriously take on rising prices, the Federal Reserve is going to have to accelerate its monetary tightening cycle. “In order to stop inflation,” writes Dillian, “the Fed will have to engineer a recession.” We’re starting to see indications from sections of the yield curve that a downturn is imminent – for example, the yield on the five-year U.S. Treasury note exceeded the yield on the 30-year bond earlier today. Stocks, meanwhile, have enjoyed a two-week rally. Is there a way out for the Fed that doesn’t include recession? Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the Fed, interest rates, economic misery, and recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IMaiNH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Raising capital for small companies is a difficult and time-consuming process — legendary entrepreneur Ross Beaty, chairman of Equinox Gold, emphasizes the importance of having tenacity and adaptability to change strategy when things don’t pan out. From a lifelong journey of building up businesses and investing, he chats with his long-time friend and fellow investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, to share the lessons Beaty learned in the energy and mining space. The pair examine the changing capital and scale requirements of companies today in a market where long-term value creation is of utmost importance. Filmed on October 6, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Russell Clark, one of Real Vision’s favorite guest-personalities, returns for another engrossing conversation with Raoul Pal. Russell always brings fresh perspectives, and Raoul is always keen to draw on his current thinking to help make sense of what’s happening around us. In short, Russell’s current sense is that everything has changed. In a far-ranging conversation, Russell and Raoul weigh the impact of innovations such as extracting oil and gas from shale, the ongoing center-of-gravity shift from capital to labor, and the vulnerabilities of centralized risk management. Russell notes that clearing houses are now the center of trading activity; they price risk differently than central banks, and he describes how that works and how that doesn't work. “The collateral,” says Russell, “can never go bust.” The world is changing, rapidly. This is a great way to catch up. To read more of Russell's work, visit www.russell-clark.com. Recorded on March 1, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Inflation is at four-decade highs in the U.S., and supply constraints caused by the war in Eastern Europe only increase upward pressure on crucial commodities. The Federal Reserve is laser-focused on the issue, to the point where futures markets are now pricing in more than nine rate hikes in 2022. And the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a two-year high on Friday, reaching 2.503% on expectations of aggressive tightening ahead. Still, the Fed is sticking with a relatively robust growth forecast. Investors are clear on the Fed’s path. It remains to be seen how Chinese policymakers will respond to threats to growth and stability. As the world continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it becomes clearer that major shifts are in process. Will the Chinese yuan ever overtake the U.S. dollar in the global currency hierarchy? What role could Bitcoin play in a revamped global system? More immediately, are we on the verge of a global liquidity crisis? Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Tony Greer to discuss these issues and more on today’s edition of Real Vision Daily Briefing. Got questions? Drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JGuIZz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Reserve was already staring down an inflation problem well before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine. One month into the war, there’s no clear end in sight. And constraints on key commodities will continue to drive prices and spur the creation of new supply chains. The Fed launched its tightening cycle with a 25 basis point increase to the fed funds target rate. The futures market is now pricing in a 50-basis-point move in May. Equity markets remain volatile. But the most interesting action may be in the bond market, where prices are falling faster than they have in decades as investors account for the Fed’s absolute focus on showing its commitment to fighting inflation. President Joe Biden is in Brussels to meet with NATO counterparts about Russia and Ukraine. But there are no easy answers for that conflict. However, Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, is here with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Fed, the bond market, Bitcoin, and finding opportunity in disorder in today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JTKf8N Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In another sign energy is now a second front in the Eastern European war, President Vladimir Putin has said he wants “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian oil and gas in rubles. Putin’s move follows reports that European Union nations are considering joining the U.S. boycott of Russian oil and in the aftermath of a weekend attack on Saudi production facilities. Brent crude, the European benchmark, has surged again, rising nearly 5% Wednesday to $121. Energy costs will surely have the attention of an inflation-obsessed Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meester said she supports front-loading rate hikes, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she sees room for a 50-basis-point hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in May. That’s despite the fact that market rates are already negatively impacting the housing market, with new home sales down for a second straight month in February and mortgage refinance applications down 14% week over week. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about energy, inflation, and the Fed. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36C4JE6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday, “Inflation is much too high,” noting that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his view that U.S. monetary policy must be tightened quickly to put a stop to upward pressure on inflation that’s already too high, repeating his call for a fed funds target rate above 3.0% this year. Meanwhile, a selloff in government bonds intensified on concerns that rising inflation will drag the nation’s economy into recession. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since 2019, as the Treasury market nears the end of what could be its worst quarter since 1973. Altogether, it looks like the hiking cycle could be more aggressive than previously forecast. But what if we have inflation all wrong? Could it be, suggests Vincent Deluard, director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, that in a service-oriented economy “inflation” is just another word for “growth”? Deluard joins Warren Pies to discuss inflation and growth, monetary policy, and the likelihood of an inverted yield curve in the very near future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3qrBE5m Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We’re nearly one month into Russia’s war against Ukraine. Officials from Moscow and Kyiv have met intermittently for peace talks that have so far failed to bring a cessation of hostilities. Geopolitical tensions are once again showing up in energy markets. Several European Union member states are pushing for a fifth round of sanctions on Russia. Cutting off Russian crude would theoretically take 4% to 5% of global supply off the market. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, under increasing pressure to ramp up its output, is calling on Western allies to do more to help counter attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis on critical oil infrastructure. Investors are also weighing a rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe stemming from an emerging variant. Izabella Kaminska, former editor of The Financial Times’ FT Alphaville blog and founder of The Blind Spot, joins Emil Kalinowski to discuss the latest geopolitical and financial headlines, with a focus on media and propaganda surrounding the war in Eastern Europe. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Jww8pv Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Brian Estes’ unwavering passion for Bitcoin is fueled by a much deeper motive that will change the way you think about the entire crypto space. In this discussion with fellow Bitcoin advocate Mark Yusko, Estes shines a light on why the cryptocurrency isn’t even close to realizing its full potential and outlines the four valuation methods he’s used to determine an estimation for Bitcoin’s value in 2029. The venture capitalist who invests heavily into companies offering blockchain solutions says we’re currently witnessing an era in which we’re “rebuilding what wasn’t built correctly the first time.” Our first visionary on the show shares his inspirational backstory and brings a fascinating understanding of Bitcoin to the table in what is quite simply the perfect start to this exciting series on the future of digital assets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Kyla Scanlon is a US-based independent content creator and curator with an expanding social media profile built on both short- and long-form TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube videos as well as extensive written work on her newsletter, her Substack, and her blog. Known for her ability to distill market moves and current events in an analytical but humorous way, she both informs and entertains her audience. Himself a content creator and curator, Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura talks to Kyla about the creative process, the challenges they face, and their respective visions for the future of financial education. In a conversation as sprawling as it is compelling, Weston and Kyla, who share mutual interest in empowering an ever-growing global audience of self-directed market participants, also discuss current events, “meme commodities,” central banks, and crypto. Thanks for watching! Subscribe to our channel now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/subscribe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard was the only member of the Federal Open Market Committee to dissent from the decision to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. Bullard wanted 50 basis points, and he’d like to see a fed funds rate of 3% by the end of 2022, not the 1.75% of the central bank’s current forecast. Bullard and Fed Chair Jerome Powell do agree that the economy can handle monetary tightening. And the stock market, with the S&P 500 on the way to its best week since November 2020, seems to accept the Fed’s outlook on growth. But the bond market sees something different – that is, a slowdown. The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, and the 10-year yield fell below the five-year rate for the first time since March 2020. Meanwhile, war in Eastern Europe continues to sow dysfunction, most obviously in commodity markets. Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Fed, inflation and growth, China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and where markets go from here. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3tol3RY Be sure to grab your tickets to the Crypto Gathering here: https://www.realvision.com/cryptogathering Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is underway, with yesterday’s 25-basis-point increase to the fed funds target range the first of what’s now forecast to be a total of seven such moves in 2022. Chair Jerome Powell said during his post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting press conference that the Fed could finalize “quantitative tightening” plans as soon as the FOMC’s May meeting. The Fed expects inflation to come in at 4.3% in 2022 before it falls to 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Policymakers adjusted downward their 2022 growth forecast, from 4.0% to 2.8%. U.S. equity indexes have responded positively to the Fed’s new hawkish stance. Market yields continue to climb, most notably the average 30-year mortgage rate. Volatility continues to be the primary characteristic of financial markets. Chinese stocks continued to rally on accommodative moves announced by government officials, but the nickel market remains an unsettled mess. The “Fed Guy,” Joseph Wang, a former trader on the central bank’s open markets desk, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the Fed’s decision, the means it will employ to combat inflation, its forecasts for both inflation and growth, and financial markets’ response. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3CNtwkF Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's latest Twitter Space was a smashing success. Real Vision's Raoul Pal, Elaine Ly, Weston Nakamura, and thousands of RV listeners including Bill Tai and more joined to voice their thoughts on everything happening across the globe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made it official this afternoon, raising the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 0.25% to 0.50%. The FOMC also boosted the interest on reserves rate and the reverse repo rate. In its statement announcing the decision, the FOMC noted with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war that “in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.” The Fed forecast year-end inflation of 4.3%, with a total of seven rate hikes through year's end. U.S equity indexes were mixed in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC announcement, as bond yields surged. Chinese stocks notched their biggest rally in 14 years, as President Xi Jinping’s government offered wide-ranging support for capital markets. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the FOMC’s decision, the complex set of circumstances central bankers face, and China’s accommodative moves. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on The Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3iauaz6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It’s safe to say the macro environment is unsettled right now, to an extent not seen in decades, and financial markets are correspondingly volatile. Crude oil prices are now down nearly 30% from recent highs, as investors weigh the demand impact of new COVID-19 lockdowns in China against supply constraints owing to the Russia-Ukraine war. Wheat has also backed off but is still up nearly 40% since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Labor Department reported this morning that the Producer Price Index for February was up 10% year over year and 0.8% month over month, as recent spikes for energy and food inputs promise a “faster for longer” rate of rise. Still, the major U.S. equity indexes were all trading more than 1% higher through midday. This is all prelude to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee. Inflation is the main enemy for the Federal Reserve. But global stress – heightened by reported talks between Saudi Arabia and China about the former accepting the yuan in payment for oil rather than the U.S. dollar – must be weighing on Jerome Powell and company. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of war in Eastern Europe on commodity and financial markets and how policymakers are likely to try to manage it all. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KKXSai Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sellers took control of the major U.S. equity indexes after lunchtime Monday and bond yields continued to climb, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s first move to boost its federal funds rate target later this week. Crude oil has sold off by nearly 25% from near-term highs, though inflationary pressures remain the central bank’s primary concern, even as the war in Eastern Europe shows no signs of ending anytime soon. The Fed must be mindful, however, that the economy was already slowing before Russia invaded Ukraine, notes Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis. And Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics center, points out that Russia’s economic contraction in a matter of weeks is comparable to the Great Depression, which took place over a number of years. China is another wild card, as its tech sector continues to sell off and officials are announcing new COVID-19 lockdowns. The Middle Kingdom’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war is also generating heated speculation. Lacalle and Lipsky join Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing, where they’ll discuss geopolitics, monetary policy, and markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KLveFJ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this special update, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal shares with us how he’s approaching the market amid this incredibly chaotic environment. Raoul outlines several scenarios for how the Russia-Ukraine situation could play out and breaks down what war in Easern Europe means for gold, bonds, oil, and, yes, even crypto. Raoul also explains why he thinks the U.S. dollar is now more of a liability than an asset and forecasts the Federal Reserve’s next moves. This is another can’t-miss presentation that will help you understand how Raoul is thinking as he navigates these turbulent times. Recorded on March 6, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Volatility matters — especially to Jason Buck, who runs his own volatility fund with the primary objective of building diverse portfolios that are capable of thriving in any financial forecast. Join Buck as he speaks with Anthony Scaramucci, Alex Lennard, Cem Karsan, Noel Smith and Scott Army about harnessing volatility for desired outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Making a long-awaited return to the Daily Briefing, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, economy, and, of course, the war in Eastern Europe. Governments around the world continue to react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the U.S. including $13.6 billion in aid to the latter as part of a $1.5 trillion spending bill and President Joe Biden suggesting an end to the latter’s “most favored nation” trade status. In another indication of an emerging deglobalization trend, Chinese tech stocks suffered their worst decline since October 2008 on increased regulatory scrutiny and fears of delisting from American exchanges. Raoul and Ash discuss the U.S. dollar, global trade, and the rising profile of cryptocurrency amid what remains the most interesting times most of us have yet experienced. Get your questions ready for Raoul, and drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3pYiJyO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index increased 7.9% during the 12 months through February, another fresh 40-year high. And that measure doesn’t account for the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy and food commodities. Crude oil prices have backed off 13-year highs on news the United Arab Emirates would support production increases by fellow OPEC members. And wheat futures have also retreated from 14-year highs. The European Central Bank acknowledged the threat of inflation to economic growth by announcing an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus. Equity markets remain volatile, which can be helpful for options specialists like today’s Daily Briefing guest Imran Lakha. Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about inflation, how central banks plan to address it, and the role cryptocurrency and gold can play in mitigating its effects on investors’ portfolios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34A0gRK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Global equity markets surged Wednesday on reports Ukraine is open to negotiating a compromise with Russia. Kyiv made clear it would discuss neutrality with Moscow but that it would not give up territory. Prices for commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, and wheat retreated. Gold, a favorite of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing guest Jared Dillian, also backed off recent highs. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is establishing a cryptocurrency policy, with the president issuing an executive order directing federal agencies to work together around six key areas: consumer and investor protection; financial stability; illicit activity; U.S. competitiveness on a global stage; financial inclusion; and responsible innovation. The Department of Labor reported there were 5 million more job openings than available workers in January, another sign of a historically tight employment situation in the U.S. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about Eastern Europe, gold, digital assets, and inflation pressures. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/366SvTO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes rallied early Tuesday, even as spiraling commodity prices promise even more upward pressure on inflation. Highlighting the day’s events was nickel soaring past the $100,000-per-metric-ton mark, which led the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading in the key input for stainless steel. Soon after President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas, and coal effective immediately, the U.K. government said it would phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. Shell declared it would stop all purchases of Russian crude and shutter its service stations in Russia, while Germany’s Uniper, a major buyer of Russian gas, said it won’t sign any new contracts for long-term supply. West Texas Intermediate crude traded as high as $128 per barrel, Brent hit $132, and European natural gas prices remained near record highs. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MwxnH7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Re-pricing in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains the dominant theme across global financial markets, with energy and food supplies top-of-mind for investors and policymakers alike. West Texas Intermediate crude reached levels last seen in 2008 on reports the U.S. federal government is actively considering a ban on Russian oil imports. Wheat is also trading at decade-and-a-half highs. And European natural gas has surged 79% since the onset of war. Squeezing Vladimir Putin seems the international community’s primary strategy right now. According to Bill Browder, a longtime nemesis of the Russian president, “The only way we can stop Putin is to starve him of resources.” Browder, co-founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and the leader of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to assess the impact of coordinated international sanctions on Putin’s government, the oligarchs who support him, and the Russian economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ClhVc6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ever wanted to know more about Raoul’s story? Interested in how he approaches not only his investments but life generally? Curious about what made it possible for him to retire for the first time at 36? In this special crossover episode, Raoul finds himself in the guest seat as My First Million host Shaan Puri probes Raoul’s background, his life philosophy, and the facts behind his first million. Shaan and Raoul also explore Raoul's Bitcoin-versus-ethereum "bet" as well how NFTs are commodifying culture for the first time in history. For more information on My First Million, please visit: https://www.mfmpod.com. Recorded on February 24, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Volatility remains the dominant theme for financial markets, as prices for energy and food commodities continue to rise along with hostilities in Eastern Europe. Russia’s war on Ukraine has made central bankers’ fight against inflation that much more complex. And its broader ramifications multiply seemingly by the hour. Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist and the author of the forthcoming book “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization,” joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss what is rapidly devolving into the biggest global crisis since World War II. As Zeihan notes, “Russia is often derided as a gas station masquerading as a country.” But this is an oversimplification. In fact, Russia – and its neighbors, including Ukraine – plays a critical role in global agricultural markets. Zeihan discusses fractured trade relationships, energy, agriculture, and what is an increasingly fraught future for the entire world. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3tBW24G Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity markets were mixed with just over two hours remaining in the trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index holding small gains and the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 Index down nearly 1%. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and the 30-year bond backed up again, as investors continue to seek safety amid the unfolding crisis in Eastern Europe. Crude oil prices slipped some, with West Texas Intermediate down 0.55% to $109.99 and Brent off 0.57% to $112.29. But grains continue to reflect rising pressures on current and future supply, with wheat up more than 7% and corn up nearly 5%. And it doesn’t appear as though Russian President Vladimir Putin is any closer to succumbing to the global sanctions regime that’s targeted the country’s oligarchs and hamstrung the lives of ordinary Russians. Indeed, missile attacks against Ukraine’s major cities are intensifying. Meanwhile, the fed funds futures market is still pricing in five interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as potential inflationary pressures increase. Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Investments, and Frances Coppola, who writes and speaks on banking, finance, and economics, join Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to assess the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its broader global impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The war in Eastern Europe has led to a meaningful shift in the market’s perception of what the Federal Open Market Committee will do when it meets in two weeks. Fed fund futures are still pricing in a greater than 80% chance of a rate hike. But the odds of a 50-basis-point boost to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate are now near zero after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, said he was inclined to propose and support a 25-basis-point move. Meanwhile, the civilian death toll in Ukraine surpassed 2,000, and Russian forces continue to threaten major cities, including Kyiv. Financial markets remain volatile, with U.S. equity indexes surging more than 2%, even as crude oil prices continue to climb. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss recent price action in the context of his short- and medium-term strategy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36WMVUq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A Russian military convoy continues to bear down on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and its most populous city. Its progress has been slow, much like the broader invasion. But news from Eastern Europe continues to roil markets, with the three major U.S. equity indexes all down at least 1.5% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields are sliding, and the CBOE Volatility Index is spiking. Commodity prices are surging, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil up nearly 9% on the day, Brent crude up nearly 8%, and corn and wheat both up more than 5%. Meanwhile, with the global community’s sanction regime still taking shape, the Russian ruble is now worth less than one cent versus the U.S. dollar, and Russia’s stock market remained closed for another full day. “At this point,” notes Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, “we cannot say how the conflict will end in the short term.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the geopolitical situation. And Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, is here to talk about how financial markets are reacting to events on the ground. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/35jzRrH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bond yields retreated and U.S. equity indexes swung from red to green and back again, as the global community continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. UK-based BP dumped its 19% stake in Russian oil and gas producer Rosneft, while Switzerland stepped forward from centuries of neutrality to freeze Russian assets held by its banks. And Singapore has imposed its own sanctions on Russia, a rare move by the southeast Asian country. Officials elsewhere have taken steps to cut off Russia’s access to its estimated $630 billion of foreign reserves. The Russian ruble has collapsed, while Russia’s central bank more than doubled its benchmark interest rate to 20% and closed the country’s stock market on Monday. Russian bonds tumbled, and investors braced for the possibility that Western sanctions could push Russia to default for the first time since 1998. Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to assess the geopolitical situation. And Harry Melandri, Advisor at MI2 Partners, is here to appraise markets’ reaction in today’s edition of the Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3poBBa6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The crisis that had erupted in Ukraine over the past week, as Russian forces had launched their invasion to worldwide condemnation and multilateral sovereign opposition, had reminded all market participants that geopolitical headline risk is inescapable. Be it long-term investors, speculative traders, financial exchanges, corporates, central banks or policy makers - nobody is exempt from exposure to major geopolitical risk, regardless of asset class or region. Weston Nakamura has proactively traded, analyzed and advised on a wide array of market moving geopolitical events, and provides his general guidelines and principles on trading geopolitical headline risk. And while no two events in history are ever the same, these lessons and concepts can be consistently applicable for effective risk management and alpha generation in a perpetually uncertain investment landscape. This video is part one of a series on trading geopolitical risk. Part two will cover Weston’s trading activity during this period of market volatility triggered by the crisis in Ukraine.
Follow Weston on Twitter for real-time market updates @acrossthespread Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A brand isn’t a thing or a service, it’s an emotion. Feelings are what drive commerce. Marketing and brand visionary Jonathan Cropper has lived on the edge of innovation throughout his career working with luxury brands like Aston Martin and alongside music industry titans Quincy Jones and Sean Combs. Cropper believes seduction and storytelling are at the basic core of the best sales strategies, and that innovations in the tech world and DeFi will be the fire that fuels the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes soared on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting a near 800-point gain and the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.86% and 0.92% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Equity futures indicated a positive open after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled a willingness to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy. Still, fighting rages in and around Kyiv, though it appears Putin’s forces are not advancing as rapidly as their leader had hoped or planned. Joining Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the geopolitical situation is Dee Smith, founder and CEO of Strategic Insight Group. And with us today to talk about how the nascent war might impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is the “Fed Guy,” Joseph Wang, a former trader on the central bank’s open markets desk. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3M2l05h. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked global financial markets, highlighted by a 31% spike in the spot price for European natural gas. Brent crude oil crossed the psychologically significant $100-per-barrel mark, and the May 2022 Euronext wheat contract surged by nearly 8%. U.S. equity markets were mixed two hours ahead of the close of regular trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index down 1.63% and 0.69%, respectively, but the Nasdaq up 0.61%. Bond yields are falling, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Russian tanks are rolling across Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s troops now control the Chernobyl nuclear site, and Western allies expect Kyiv to fall within hours. Jacob Shapiro, founder and chief strategist of Perch Perspectives, and Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, join Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss the geopolitical situation and markets’ reaction to the specter of the most significant conflict since World War II. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3t3TPhR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Investors face a dilemma of seemingly mythological proportions, stuck between the Scylla of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Charybdis of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. And one monster theoretically feeds the other, as rising geopolitical tensions continue to drive crude oil and natural gas prices higher and add to inflation pressures in the United States. President Joe Biden’s sanctions regime appears to be targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, as he navigates a complex set of international and domestic problems. Ukrainian banks and government websites are under cyber attack and Russian troops have crossed its borders, as this 21st century struggle continues to unfold. How will literal war in Eastern Europe play into the Fed’s figurative war on inflation, with market rates already creeping up? Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to assess financial markets in context of the present geo-macro situation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3sdD0SD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The crisis in Eastern Europe has escalated to new levels, as Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the deployment of troops to rebel-held areas of Ukraine. Prices for energy commodities, including crude oil and natural gas, spiked on the news. And wheat, a key export from the region, is also rising. Weston Nakamura joins Ash Bennington for a look at the geopolitical situation through the lens of global markets in today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. Cross-asset analysis, as Weston notes, is the best way for investors to understand what is a complex situation, on the ground in Europe as well as for people making decisions about their portfolios. How will the Federal Reserve’s approach to its tightening cycle change, if at all? And what will China do? Join Weston and Ash for a discussion of what recent price action tells us about the world right now. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3v5I651 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the previous part 1 video of Weston Nakamura’s series on the Bank of Japan, Weston explains how BOJ Yield Curve Control works, and discusses the implications of being the only major central bank left who claims to still provide highly accommodative monetary policy in 2022. In this part two video, Weston shares his long-running theory on "BOJ Press Tests,” conducted behind the scenes by the central bank, carried out by major financial media outlets, and intended to get a read on market sentiment before a potentially permanent, irreversible policy error is made - as the Bank of Japan currently works to clean up its most recent attempt at using a “press test” as it headed into the January Monetary Policy Meeting. He also shows an example of when a theoretically impenetrable yield curve control fails a at the upper-bound of the YCC range. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Independent volatility trader, Darrin Johnson, believes trading volatility is the key to success in the market. In this invaluable episode, Johnson sits down with Jason Buck to reveal the key trading principles he follows and the importance of “standing out” professionally. Starting from the beginning of his entrepreneurial journey, the largely self-taught trader stresses the importance of educating oneself and reveals the learning materials he’s used personally—including the book central to his education and success in this area. Johnson shares some of the key lessons for institutional and independent trading, how to hedge risk effectively, and where he sees the most opportunity in the market right now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Christian Alexander of Macro Link is one of the best-connected insiders in the hedge fund industry -- a "Jerry Maguire" figure with a broad and deep list of contacts. Three years ago, he spoke with Roger Hirst about the future of the industry, when "easy money" was the dominant regime. And, in November, he shared his thoughts on inflation with Maggie Lake, before wholesale and consumer prices spiked to multi-decade highs. Chris joins Maggie for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to update his thesis on hedge funds’ future as the Federal Reserve prepares to launch its first rate-hiking cycle since 2015-18. How will hedge funds adjust to the new reality? And what's Chris hearing from hedge-fund insiders about inflation, markets, specific assets, and the economy? Drop your questions for Chris on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0f611 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
“GOLD.” That’s it; that’s the tweet Jared Dillian has published twice in the last couple days, as the yellow metal has surged more than 2%. A store of value (and a medium of exchange) for millennia, gold didn’t respond as inflation fears swelled during 2021. Now that the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index are hitting multi-decade highs, though, alongside still-rising tension in Eastern Europe, it’s back in favor. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says 30% of his portfolio is made up of gold, silver, and precious-metals miners. And two weeks ago he tweeted, “I have a hunch that what’s coming next will make it feel like it’s not enough.” Dillian joins Real Vision Daily Briefing host Ash Bennington to talk about gold and why it remains a sound investment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GREEgR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As detailed in the just-released minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, U.S. central bankers are going to tighten faster than they did during their last rate-hiking cycle. And they’ve accelerated plans to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Still, Jerome Powell and company will be challenged to rein in inflation while keeping both investors and consumers happy. Meanwhile, Darius Dale sees in the January Producer Price Index data some light at the end of the tunnel, as the numbers suggest global supply-chain and inflation pressures may be abating. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the big picture, including the question of whether the January stock selloff was merely prologue to a more serious crash later in 2022. Weston Nakamura joins to preview the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, which kicks off tomorrow in Jakarta, Indonesia. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uRAu63. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale prices and a key input for consumer prices, rose 1% in January, doubling the 0.5% consensus forecast. The PPI was up 9.7% year over year, easing from the 13-year-high readings of 9.8% for the previous two months. Increases were registered across the board, but goods prices continue to lead services prices. It’s more fodder for a Federal Reserve poised to start raising interest rates next month. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has ordered some troops be pulled back from positions along the Ukrainian border and has committed to further diplomatic talks with the U.S. Equity indexes surged on apparent easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, while crude oil and natural gas prices slid on the news. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to discuss today’s developments. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3gQ2miK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Equity indexes faded into the close today, as investors continue to weigh prospects for a diplomatic solution to the simmering problem in Eastern Europe. U.S. President Joe Biden issued an ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated his hawkish stance on inflation, noting that it may be necessary to “front-load” interest-rate hikes. But the Bank of Japan remains on the side of easy money and “yield curve control.” This divergence among central banks could have major ramifications for stock prices, particularly high-growth tech names, as Weston Nakamura explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington in today’s Daily Briefing. Be sure to watch Weston's YouTube video here: https://rvtv.io/3uJCXj4. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oPv7Ax. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Renowned author, professional trader and quantitative analyst Euan Sinclair describes the subtle difference between inefficiency and risk premium in options and markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Inflation is rampant globally, and the world’s major central banks are all taking decisive measures to tighten policy in their respective ways, with the exception of one major developed market central bank: the Bank of Japan. Weston Nakamura is based in Tokyo, Japan and has been monitoring, analyzing and trading the BOJ throughout Governor Kuroda’s controversial tenure, and explains how the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy has enabled the other major central banks and governments from making tough decisions and allowed for them to keep monetary and fiscal policy loose by “exporting low yields.” Weston also warns of a major potential inflection point ahead, as global central banks retreat from policy accommodation, leaving the BOJ the sole source of policy continuity in the QE-era. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, “this was not a good report.” And the decline was largely attributable to waning confidence among the investor class, which fears the stock-market implications of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Regular consumers are simply in fear of falling behind because of inflation. An emerging Wall Street consensus now sees seven rate hikes coming down the pike, a process that could result in an inverted yield curve. And an inverted yield curve often means “recession.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other risk assets, perhaps on the perception that it’s an effective hedge against still-accelerating inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about next moves for the Fed amid increasing chatter about an emergency session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next regular meeting in March. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HLyUX8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index for January 2022 was up 0.6% and 7.5% year over year. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he’s become "dramatically" more hawkish in light of the hottest inflation in nearly 40 years. Bullard, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, would now like to see a total of 100 basis points of rate hikes by July. In the aftermath of Bullard’s comments, federal funds futures are pricing in a 60% chance of a 50-basis-point hike in March. Rent has gone up nearly 30% in some cities, but the grass isn’t greener for would-be homeowners. U.S. mortgage rates have surged to a two-year high, with the average 30-year fixed rate up to 3.69% from 3.55% last week. Meanwhile, the European Commission has raised its inflation forecast for 2022 to 3.5% from 2.2% due to high energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss today’s CPI report and what it means for the Federal Reserve, markets, and your portfolio. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3swruR5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Japan Machine Tool Orders, the best leading indicator of the global industrial cycle, accelerated in January. And recent data suggest the backlog at Los Angeles Port may begin to ease by summer. At the same time, the coming Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle is a major wild card for investors. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about why, according to his analysis, “deflation” is now equal to “inflation” as the dominant short-term market regime. Was the January sell-off merely a precursor to a larger correction? However the case turns, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s “right-tail hawkishness” means more volatility. Darius shares his thoughts on a murky macro picture and how specific assets are likely to perform under various scenarios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HESUe5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
President Emmanuel Macron of France met with President Vladimir Putin of Russia in Moscow on Monday and emerged with what seemed like good news: There’d be no further escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Indeed, equity indexes rallied, and crude oil prices backed off seven-year highs. But the Kremlin, while conceding the meeting had provided the basis for further work toward deescalation, said Macron’s interpretation of Putin’s intentions was “not right.” Meanwhile, President Joe Biden hosted new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks about the situation in the Baltics, agreeing that construction of the critical Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline would be stopped should Russia invade Ukraine. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to sort out implications for stock and commodity markets in light of recent geopolitical events. Tony also talks about why the FAANG stocks have lagged of late, particularly relative to energy. And Weston Nakamura, our man on the ground in Asia, drops in to share insights on China’s recent moves to accommodate markets even as western policymakers withdraw stimulus. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3guKIB9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The small-cap Russell 2000 Index posted an impressive 14.8% gain during 2021, but nearly all of it came in the first quarter. And weakness over the ensuing nine months carried into the first month of 2022, when the index shed 9.7%. Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer of Royce Investment Partners, notes this frustrating performance came despite generally strong earnings growth for small-cap companies. Gannon joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to share his outlook for small caps over the balance of 2022, including the fact that it’s the only major asset class to have outpaced inflation during every decade since the 1930s. And rising interest rates could provide an additional tailwind for small-cap value stocks such as regional banks. Meanwhile, major indexes reflect uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for January, as investors weigh the potential for a 50-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HBlVau Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mike Green sits down with Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, to examine the political and economic climate of China. They look at China's 'outsized' role in the world and what impact joining the WTO had on the Chinese nearly two decades ago. The conversation also looks to the future -and the possibility of a digital currency in China -in time for the Beijing Olympics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Weston Nakamura closes his long Sony Corp. (NYSE: SONY)/short Technology Select SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) market-neutral pair trade, as SONY shares rallied following an intraday trading halt on news of its acquisition of Bungie for $3.6 billion Weston shares his thought process and overall assessment. Though it was a net-profitable trade in an environment of elevated global equity volatility, Weston’s frank self-evaluation is that this was a flawed structure. He categorizes this win as “right for the wrong reasons.” In other words, he got lucky. Weston expands on the importance of applying the framework of being “right/wrong, for the right/wrong reason” for all traders and investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It wasn’t just the nonfarm payrolls data for January that moved markets on Friday. Upward revisions to prior months’ reports put a fresh glow on the U.S. economy – and also invited questions about Federal Reserve policy. “Too late the hawk” is how Harry Melandri might put it. Melandri, currently an advisor with MI2 Partners and formerly of Deutsche Asset Management and the Bank of England, notes that we have hit our “max non-inflationary growth potential.” In fact, the Fed “could tighten a lot without having a restrictive monetary policy.” The issue now could be either how big is the “everything bubble” in the U.S. or whether inflation or growth is the central bank’s key policy objective. Melandri joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake at the end of one of the most fascinating weeks in recent financial market history. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3rsVnTh Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
European Central Bank President Christine LaGarde now concedes the potential need for a rate hike in 2022 in the face of record-high inflation on the Continent, the same day the Bank of England announced a second consecutive increase to its benchmark rate since 2004 and began its “quantitative tightening” process. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, both Facebook parent Meta and PayPal have experienced massive value destruction in the aftermath of soft fourth-quarter results and softer forward guidance. Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about central bank moves, big tech earnings, and broader economic and market realities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3L3CUo5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The ADP employment report for January showed a net loss of jobs, consumer spending is slowing, and President Biden is sending 3,000 troops to Eastern and Central Europe in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. Like Apple’s, Alphabet’s fourth-quarter results blew away expectations. But those look like exceptions to the rule of a generally mixed earnings picture. Against increasing economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical instability, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates a total of 175 basis points in 2022. Darius Dale, CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about where markets go from here. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Hj4jzU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It’s already been a good year for hydrocarbons, with crude oil and natural gas prices rising along with geopolitical tensions in Central Europe. The threat of war is now driving up prices of agricultural commodities, including wheat, barely, corn, and rapeseed, with consequences far beyond the region. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss emerging opportunities in real assets. Meanwhile, India plans to launch a digital rupee during the fiscal year that starts April and to impose a 30% tax on transfers of virtual assets, as one of the world’s key markets warms to cryptocurrency. Real Vision’s eyes and ears in India, Nipun Kalra, joins to talk about crypto’s big win on the subcontinent. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ghKtJE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stocks surged on the last trading day of the month, but it was still the worst January for the Nasdaq since 2008. According to Mark Ritchie, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, we’re probably not going to see the type of V-shaped recovery that we saw in March 2020. Although last Monday marked a potential momentum low, “per my work,” notes Ritchie, “we are already in a cyclical bear market.” Earnings have been mixed so far, and investors are still focused on the Federal Reserve and other central banks as they prepare to fight inflation. Ritchie joins Maggie Lake to talk about financial markets and what’s changed early 2022. And Weston Nakamura joins to talk about the impact of China going silent ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GtgoS5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Brad Snyder and Weston Nakamura, a trucker and a trader, are back with Exchanging Lanes to challenge conventional macro data analysis, using real-world, real-time, on-the-ground observations and applying differentiated takeaways. In this episode, Weston and Brad look ahead and explore where disinflation or deflation risk may arise with a focus on inventories. They see massive overcapacity of warehousing in the longer term and offer a non-consensus angle for a potential data misread in consumption trends and inflation drivers for the immediate term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Pippa Malmgren, who served as Special Assistant to the President of the United States for Economic Policy under George W. Bush, says financial markets are likely to shrug off military conflict in Ukraine because it probably won’t resemble traditional warfare. Malmgren tells Real Vision managing editor Samuel Burke that the new “quantitative easing” is military spending in cyberspace. Recorded on January 25, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A favorite Federal Reserve inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures index, measured 4.9% year over year for December. It hasn’t been that hot since September 1983. And the employment cost index was up an annualized 4% during the fourth quarter of 2021, an all-time high for that metric. Meanwhile, talk on the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine front has turned to economic sanctions, which, while short of “hot” war, pose their own set of challenges to people on the ground. Yields backed up and equities rallied on all the news. Jim Bianco, founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to sort out an eventful Friday. And Weston Nakamura drops in to share his thoughts following an equally dramatic week in China. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34ivKep Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Commerce Department reported the fastest annualized rate of U.S. gross domestic product growth since 1984 for the fourth quarter of 2021. But it’s hard to call this “Morning in America.” Investors and central bankers are still fixed on inflation and the coming tightening cycle, as other data suggest continuing supply-chain problems and omicron concerns linger. Earnings have been mixed, with Apple Inc. due to report at 5:00 p.m. ET today. Major equity indexes reflected the mixed picture, rising through midday but slipping into the red ahead of the close. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss strategy and tactics against a murky backdrop. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ABav3R Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Open Market Committee said today “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.” And it issued a separate statement on “Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet,” even as asset purchases continue. Stocks were already having their best day of 2022 ahead of this afternoon’s releases, and equity indexes continued to rally post-2:00 p.m. ET. The Fed finds itself in uncharted territory, and its various statements reflect the fact that there is no roadmap for combating inflation while balancing serious risks to growth – among them geopolitical tensions that continue to drive crude oil higher as well as an ongoing pandemic. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to break down one of the most highly anticipated FOMC meetings in recent times. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KLKALp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The U.S. appears to be ramping up its support of NATO forces to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine. And, after selling off along with all risk assets yesterday, crude oil prices are once again rising. Other commodities produced in the Baltics, such as natural gas as well as wheat and corn, are also sensitive to geopolitical tension. This comes as the Federal Reserve opens a two-day meeting during which the central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since late 2018. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is up more than 3% during the last 24 hours, as the world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency seems to have decoupled from equities, at least in the very short term. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to sort through a murky macro environment and to talk about his current trading book. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0wMKE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Biden administration is preparing to deploy troops and equipment to Eastern Europe and the Baltics to counter Russia’s threat to Ukraine, as UK officials suggest Moscow aims to install a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv. Stocks all over the world are tumbling, again, and Bitcoin has breached key technical levels. And there’s real concern about European natural gas supplies. “Risk on” for Putin means “risk off” for investors. Weston Nakamura is here to discuss the state of play with Ash Bennington. Weston also drops a compelling pair trade that could be a decent hedge against both geopolitics and central bankers. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/32rm6FR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Cryptocurrencies are crashing, stocks are tanking, bonds are rallying, and central banks are diverging. That all spells “risk off,” as the pandemic rally has surely come to an end. Is there an “all clear” moment coming? When should we prepare to buy this dip? Raoul Pal joins the conversation for an update on what’s happening in the crypto space. And Maggie Lake talks with Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, about the view from 30,000 feet and what it means for risk assets, including Bitcoin, Netflix, and others that benefited from across-the-board accommodative monetary policy over the past couple years. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KwXMDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The commodity “super cycle” chorus will only get louder with crude oil touching eight-year highs, nickel reaching levels not seen in a decade, and even gold looking like a compelling trade right now. Mixed U.S. economic data probably won’t alter the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. But China’s central bank is clearly in easing mode. Combined with constrained supply across the complex, and that’s fuel enough for commodities firmly linked to the Middle Kingdom’s economy. Tony Greer talks with Maggie Lake about what’s happening with commodities amid a murky global outlook, and joins the conversation to discuss the impact of recent moves by the People’s Bank of China. Questions for Tony? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/33VU4CE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
U.S. equity indexes bounced between “green” and “red” today, reflecting investor uncertainty amid a spike in volatility. Portfolio positioning is the critical question, as inflation fears feed expectations of four interest-rate hikes in 2022. Supply-chain issues continue to burden the global economy. And, now, crude oil is threatening to reach $100. Consumers are getting crunched, and investors are confused. Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, sifts the evidence and offers solutions for the current environment in a discussion with Ash Bennington. Care to submit a question? Drop it right here on the Exchange https://rvtv.io/3GJX3wN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bond yields rose across the curve Tuesday and stocks sank, as investors began to price in the potential impact of as many as four Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped to 1.865%, the highest it’s been since January 2020, and the German 10-year bund moved to within one basis point of turning positive for the first time since 2019. U.S. equity indexes were off nearly 2%, while European stocks fell about 1%. The CBOE Volatility Index (known as the “fear gauge”) surged as much as 20% intraday. Meanwhile, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices continued to rise on strengthening global demand and tightening tensions in the Middle East. Still, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Alfonso Peccatiello of The Macro Compass welcomes back Nordea Markets Global Rates Strategist Andreas Steno Larsen for a European perspective on what's driving markets today. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3fD6xhw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 14,2022: U.S. retail sales fell in December as surging prices hit consumer spending. Raoul Pal discusses what opportunities are available for investors in an environment of rising inflation and why he is looking at the carbon trade. He also provides his view on Bitcoin, Ethereum and how to understand the macro environment. You don’t want to miss Raoul’s take on how we should be thinking amid the uncertainty. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3I2PBgs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 13,2022: In today’s volatile trading environment, charts can be a clear way to make investment decisions. Katie Stockton gives her technical take on the S&P 500 (which she says will enter a corrective phase in 1-2 weeks), FAANGs, 10-year yields, and more. Find out why she suggests sticking with core longs that have the support of rising moving averages and get some actionable ideas. We’ll also ask how much—if at all—fundamentals like rising inflation play into her investment decisions. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3FjqrbG Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 12,2022:December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 7% year-over-year, the biggest jump since 1982. And even worse supply chain disruptions may be on the horizon if Omicron sweeps through Asia and prompts more lockdowns across China. HSBC warns that disruptions to manufacturing are inevitable, and the world could be headed for the “mother of all” supply chain bottlenecks. 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale discusses what to look out for and how best to prepare. Interviewed by Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/33b0EFz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 11,2022: During a hearing for his re-confirmation as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell said the central bank will work to relieve inflationary pressures in the economy. Following Powell’s testimony, the Nasdaq rallied for the second day in a row. In the U.K., the London Metal Exchange experienced an over five hour long outage but resumed trading after migrating its systems to backup. Sharing how he’s positioning his trades, Tony Greer of TG Macro examines elevated volatility in markets with commodities soaring, yields rising, Bitcoin plunging, and equities rotating out of tech. Interviewed by Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Gj45br. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 10,2022: Goldman Sachs expects a more aggressive Fed this year with four interest rate hikes on the horizon in an effort to to tame inflation. The prediction comes as U.S. stocks extend a volatile start to the year and Bitcoin dips below $40,000 for the first time since September. People who invested in BTC in the run up to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF are about to break even. Will the Fed need to rethink its strategy? Meanwhile, Omicron continues to rampage through the world, and one city in China is taking an aggressive approach: Tianjin, near Beijing, is testing all 14 million of its residents after 20 people tested positive for the coronavirus, two of whom had the omicron variant. Alfonso Peccatiello and Weston Nakamura join from the Netherlands and Japan respectively to answer the timely question: How do you navigate this environment with rising interest rates? Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3K9da9p Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 07,2022:Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. rose by 199,000 in December, which pales in comparison to the original estimate of 422,000. Despite the actual numbers landing below expectations, unemployment in the country fell to 3.9%, which was actually better than the estimated 4.1%. Wages increased 4.7% year-over-year according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industries that reaped the benefits the most were leisure and hospitality. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and author of The Boock Report, joins to examine the U.S labor force and inflation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been slipping all week and is now below $42,000, levels not seen since September last year. This too is the result of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes hinting at earlier- and faster-than-expected rate hikes. In Europe, inflation hit a record high of 5% in December, leaving people debating whether the European Central Bank should be more aggressive at combating price hikes. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3f3eIDe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 06,2022:On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%—the worst single-day decline in 11 months and the worst start to a year since 2008. Even crypto is taking a beating. The entire country has turned its attention to the Fed, which yesterday hinted at becoming more aggressive, triggering the steep drop in stocks. The taper, rising rates, and declining balance sheets are on the agenda. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, shares how he’s positioning his portfolio, given the big picture, and answers the pivotal question: Is a major regime shift on the way? Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3G4jmwD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 05,2022:The U.S. Fed just released its meeting minutes, hinting that it may get more aggressive with tightening the balance sheet and reducing stimulus. That caused stocks to plunge immediately. China just launched a wallet app for its own digital Yuan currency with the aim to expand its usage to more people in the country and, simultaneously, achieve more control over crypto in the country. The digital Yuan is not a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, but instead is issued and controlled by the People’s Bank of China. In the U.S., private-sector job growth increased by 807,000 payrolls in December, which is the strongest growth since May, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. However, absenteeism resulting from the Omicron variant is still an imminent threat to non-farm payroll growth. 42 Macro CEO and founder Darius Dale joins to discuss all this as well as his developing macro outlook for 2022. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34tOSGN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 04,2022: OPEC+ has agreed to increase its oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in February as it is believed that Omicron will not have a detrimental impact on demand. The Institute for Supply Management revealed a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing in December, but still in firm expansion territory. It also showed signs that inflation may be starting to cool as supply-chain disruptions ease. Also, your old Blackberry phone has finally died forever and can’t even be used to call 911 anymore. Tony Greer discusses all this and more. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3eRNzTW. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan 01,2022: Alfonso Peccatiello, the author of the Macro Compass, shares his outlook on 2022 on the first trading day of the year, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite inch higher. Peccatiello discusses how he sees the economy moving forward: his view on China’s economy, the property market, and the Evergrande’s debt crisis. Peccatiello also talks about Fed rates, inflation, the bond market, and some of the good news making headlines and reflected in companies like Apple becoming the first company to hit $3 trillion market value and Tesla stocks jumping 9.0% after the company reported record deliveries for 2021. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JFjVPE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec30,2021:December has been a brutal month for Bitcoin — with prices plunging around 30% from their all-time high in November. In this special edition of Crypto Unwrapped, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Real Vision’s own Weston Nakamura join Ash Bennington to discuss what’s driving price action in these highly volatile markets. The group breaks down key concepts, including year-end options expiry, implied volatility put-to-call ratios, max pain point, and the role of ETF and emerging market FX. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec27,2021:What put a floor under global markets last week may not be what you think. Weston Nakamura provides an overview of the global and cross-asset markets in the last week of the year. Nakamura explains that regional market holiday schedules matter because they determine the makeup of active market participants. He then talks about the unprecedented volatility in the Turkish Lira having rallied 50% from all time lows after President Erdogan unveiled his controversial new economic policy to protect depositors against FX risk. He also makes the case that the upside in global macro risk assets could have been driven by the breakneck reversal in the Lira, following up on his recently released video, “How Policy Changes Created Turkish Lira Volatility”. Link to Weston’s video on the Turkish Dollar from Dec 25th 2021: https://youtu.be/WnDiFCWgBDQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec23,2021:What’s going on in Turkey, and why should we keep an eye on it? Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian fills you in on what you need to know about the Turkish Lira. Nikola delivers its first EV truck, boosting its stocks by 20%, and Elon Musk is now almost done selling his Tesla shares. Dillian also shares his rules of trading for 2022, which might be riddled with choppy waters. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3srmnDv. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec22,2021:The number of new cases in South Africa has slowed in recent weeks and is down more than 20% in the past week, pointing to the probability that the Omicron variant has reached its peak. Perhaps this may not be that bad after all. Alfonso Peccatiello is in Holland under a strict lockdown, and he is joined by Darius Dale of 42 Macro on the Daily Briefing to discuss the lockdown conditions and the potential effects it would have on the economy. Meanwhile, Elon Musk announced he would be paying $11 billion in taxes this year as he continues offloading Tesla stock. However, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has launched a probe into Tesla vehicles’ ability to play games on the giant tablet in the car while driving, making these vehicles incredibly dangerous on the road thanks to their ability to distract drivers. Interviewed by Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3eexSWr Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec21,2021:After markets were down yesterday, oil, stocks, and crypto rebounded. Goldman Sachs also recently released their new projection for oil, explaining that oil could potentially reach $100 a barrel within the next two years. TG Macro's Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss why he thinks not enough people own copper and update his market outlook for the last weeks of 2021. In the U.K., the Omicron variant’s rampage has led the government to offer 1 billion pounds to hospitality businesses and firms hardest hit by the new outbreak. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/32odI9Z Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec20,2021:The Omicron fear factor has sent the entire market tumbling downhill – what does this mean for 2022? Jeffrey Schulze of ClearBridge discusses how you should protect your investments and prepare for the disruption. Goldman cuts GDP forecast down to 2% after Sen. Joe Manchin said he won’t support President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. Real Vision's Weston Nakamura also discusses the Lira as it slumps to new lows after Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would not raise interest rates. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3slSEeV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec017,2021:At the year's end, people are normally buying the winning tech stocks. This year, however, people are selling. What is going on? Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, talks about the volatility in tech stocks and whether you should buy the dip. He will also discuss cryptocurrencies and his 2022 outlook on the digital asset space. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/31YK0bP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec16,2021:As the Fed wages its battle against inflation by signaling raising interest rates in 2022 at a faster pace than expected, Liz Young, Head of Investment Strategy at SoFi, explains who the winners and losers are from the Fed’s decision and how we should position our investments. Will a hike in interest rates accelerate the growth of cryptocurrencies? In the UK, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years from 0.1% to 0.25%, which may increase the mortgage costs of some homeowners. In the meantime, businesses around the world continue to suffer from the spread of Covid and the Omicron variant. Liz Young speaks about these issues, the macro environment, our investment future, the clean energy trends, and the supply chain woes. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3F6i6ca Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec15,2021:In the most highly anticipated decision of the year, the Fed said it would ramp up its pace of tapering and hike rates three times in 2022. So what does that mean for your investments? Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, shares his thoughts on how investors should position themselves as we head into the New Year. Will Bitcoin be a hedge to an uncertain future? Interviewed by The Macro Compass author Alfonso Peccatiello. Want to submit questions? Drop them here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/325Am6A Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec14,2021:The Fed meeting begins today, and Thomas Thornton joins the Daily Briefing to discuss what that means for stocks and Bitcoin. One thing’s for sure: we can probably expect a hike in interest rates. Gold already retreated 1% today in anticipation. Meanwhile, airlines are already looking ahead to next year and expecting a bounce back in travel. American Airlines plans to hire 18,000 people to meet the expected demand. Thornton will also talk about Tesla and Elon Musk’s selling spree to reach his goal of selling 10% by the end of the year, as well as the downside of $ARKK and whether buying the dip on $SPY is foolish. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3pTvhqw Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec13,2021:U.S. stocks have kicked off the week in the red amid concerns over the Omicron variant and ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday. Meme stocks like GameStop and AMC are suffering the most as investors dump risky positions. Dave Floyd, the founder of Aspen Trading, explains how to handle the market sell-off. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/31YiNW0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec10,2021:Raoul Pal shares his key takeaways from Real Vison’s ‘The Takeover’ in Las Vegas. Where are the leading names in the cryptosphere placing their bets? Plus, U.S. inflation surges to its highest level in 39-years, putting even more pressure on the Fed’s taper timeline. Pal joins Maggie Lake to discuss these topics and more! Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3DGaThf. You can learn more about Real Vision’s ‘The Takeover’ at https://www.realvision.com/mgm/the-takeover Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec09,2021:Ahead of Friday’s CPI print, analysts expect a reading of 6.8%, showing that inflation is still running hot through the economy. After a week-long rebound, Brent Crude fell 0.8% as fuel demand setbacks rise and Omicron fears persist. Bitcoin fell 3% from yesterday’s levels, and while crypto enthusiasts are still hanging on to the “store of value” narrative for BTC and other cryptocurrencies, market action shows that investors still see these tokens as high-risk assets. Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969 — the recovery surges onward despite uncertain markets. Inflation expectations, jobless claims, and crypto volatility are driving markets this week — Join RV’s Ash Bennington and Maggie Lake live from The Takeover in Las Vegas for a market update. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oFMl3I Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec08,2021:With markets easing on Omicron fears this week and assets across the board beginning to recover from last week’s drawdowns, Pfizer and BioNTech both announced today the initial findings of the effectiveness of their boosters against the Omicron variant, demonstrating promising results of neutralizing the virus. The October JOLTS numbers also were released, showing that 4.2 million Americans quit their jobs, a decrease from the previous month, and openings increased to slightly over 11 million. 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale analyzes the labor market’s recovery, COVID’s continuing impact on markets, the implications of the U.S. House passing legislation on increasing the debt ceiling limit, and more. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3dAjdo6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec07,2021:Tech stocks are making a comeback today and oil is up over 4%, easing Omicron fears, but can it last? Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that while the Omicron variant appears mild, its lightning-speed spreadability could lead to even more mutations. Bitcoin has recovered and is risk-on. Tony Greer joins us for another TG Tuesday to discuss stocks, oil, Bitcoin, and how to navigate Powell and the taper. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3pEs4el Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec06,2021: The Macro Compass is a four-quadrant tool that helps see the macro forest first and then the trees. Alfonso Peccatiello uses this model to determine how to distribute his investment portfolio. Peccatiello discusses on the Daily Briefing investment opportunities in commodities and cryptocurrencies. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lEV3xs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec 03,2021:The NASDAQ is down today over 300 points, and the VIX continues to edge up to its 52-week high. Jim Bianco discusses the latest tech fallout and where the equities sell-off is concentrated. The Omicron variant is rattling the markets. Fears of a deepening supply chain crisis are at the forefront of investors’ minds. Despite these fears, the unemployment rate’s drop to 4.2% may signify a positive turn for the economic growth story. Bianco shares predictions on the Fed’s actions and year-end dynamics for fund managers and retail investors. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to ask questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/31oSQyK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-DEC 02,2021:Steven Van Metre joins the Daily Briefing to share his outlook of the volatility ahead as we close out the year and begin to look forward to an equally unstable 2022. With markets still recovering from major pullbacks in the past few days, Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial lays out his perspective on the consumer as Apple shares fall on weaker iPhone demand. He analyzes the markets as the Fed considers accelerating their taper and the global economy as China’s presence in the growth story becomes diminished and threats from Omicron abound. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to ask questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GcXdMz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Dec 01,2021: As U.S. equities and oil inventories rise, investors are wondering whether the newly discovered Omicron variant threatens to reverse the recovery the economy has made. While officials instruct people not to panic, the uncertainty has already caused some movement in the markets: the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4%. Darius Dale analyzes whether businesses should worry about another lockdown. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xLcNfq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 30,2021: Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said it’s time to retire the word “transitory”—are you shocked? All the major U.S. market indices fell more than 1% on the announcement while the dollar strengthens and crude oil tanks. Ash Bennington is not surprised by Powell's announcement to retire "transitory", and he sits down with Tony Greer of TG Macro on another installment of TG Tuesdays on the Daily Briefing to talk about inflation and oil. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3FY6Xdp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 29,2021:Weston Nakamura joins us from Japan to share his insight on why the market went down on Friday and to talk about Turkey, where the stock market is thriving. He also discusses what’s happening to the Turkish Lira and how the currency can impact an entire asset class. While the real world is seeing the emergence of yet another Covid variant, Omicron, the virtual world of Decentraland saw a whopping $2.43 million sale of virtual land, which will be used for virtual fashion events. Interviewed by Petr Pinkhasov. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3CZTq2V Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 24,2021: Are we back in 1969? At only 199,000, last week’s initial jobless claims were the lowest in over half a century since November 1969. That was the pre-internet and pre-cell phone era. Is this a signal for the recovery of the economy or are people just starting their own small businesses? Another throwback to a historical era, inflation hasn’t run amok through the economy since the end of WW II when Americans returned home. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins with all his data to discuss the future. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xlIsnf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 23,2021:The U.S. Department of Energy announced it will release 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to battle gas prices and tame inflation. Gold and silver prices have also slipped lately – so it may be time to be bullish. Tony Greer joins us once more for TG Tuesdays to discuss oil and gold on today’s Daily Briefing. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xiaYGc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 22,2021:President Biden nominates Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for a second term. The question on everyone’s mind is, what does it mean for the economy? Could Biden’s pick signal that the administration is opting for policy continuity? Powell faces a completely different economy from when he was sworn in, and he will have to pivot from previous policies as inflation is at 6.2%, its highest in 31 years. The U.S is also hurting from supply and labor imbalances. In the economy, oil prices rose on news that OPEC+ could raise oil production if large consuming countries release crude from their reserves. President Biden is expected to release oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Gary Brode, founder of Deep Knowledge Investing, sits down with Maggie Lake to discuss how the economy will fare once more under Powell, and what higher oil prices mean for investors and consumers. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oSPjk9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 19,2021: Bitcoin just got its biggest upgrade yet with Taproot, which will streamline transaction processing and make everything more efficient. In the U.S., the House finally passes President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Build Back Better spending bill, but there might be further revisions from the Senate. In Austria, days after issuing a lockdown on the unvaccinated, the country has announced a full lockdown starting Monday and legally mandated vaccination from February 1, 2022. If other countries follow suit with their own lockdowns, it could trigger more global supply chain issues. Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, joins to give the big picture on Taproot and what he’s looking at in the economy. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Cy7uke Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 18,2021: Katie Stockton, founder, and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies joins to chat about her outlook for stocks as we head into the end of the year. The major indices remain in consolidation phases that she views as healthy pauses within their uptrends. Katie’s short-term indicators are mixed for a neutral takeaway, but she expects them to turn higher next week as the holiday season begins. Semiconductor stocks have been a source of upside leadership since bottoming in early October. Lumber futures have also made an explosive three-day move, narrowly avoiding a breakdown. Katie will also talk about gold and dollar breakouts. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/30DbrXf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 17,2021: After weeks of backlog in the L.A. ports, officials say they’ve finally made some progress and cleared about 29% of the cargo. Last month’s retail sales report resulted in a gleeful leap in stocks and the U.S. dollar. As inflation continues to rage through the economy with the highest CPI in 30 years, President Obama’s former economic adviser, Steven Rattner, blasted the Biden administration for getting it all wrong despite warnings. Bitcoin, which hit an all-time high earlier this month, continues to fall. Darius Dale of 42 Macro joins to give his insight on the resiliency of the U.S. dollar, inflation, and Bitcoin. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kMfoAi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 16,2021: Tony Greer returns to the Daily Briefing to discuss a spike in retail sales in October, even in the face of rising inflation. Not only are sales up 1.7% from the previous month, but also up 16.3% year-over-year. This is as a result of the combination of U.S. households having extra cash from the stimulus money and a frenzy to get holiday shopping started early this year to avoid supply chain issues choking the availability of gifts as industrial production continues to be riddled with volatility. Germany suspended certifying the controversial Russian pipeline, causing natural gas prices to shoot up from concerns of low fuel this winter in Europe. In the crypto world, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell sharply retreating from near-record highs. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kFYu6c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 15,2021: Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Maggie Lake to talk about the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar, Austria’s enforcement on a lockdown on the unvaccinated, and why Boris Johnson, who until now has been resistant to more lockdowns, warns that one may soon be possible given the struggling NHS. Floyd discusses the implications of these European lockdowns on supply chains and the market. Floyd also analyzes Tesla’s stock and why Musk got into a Twitter brawl with U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders over the weekend when Bernie tweeted about the rich paying their fair share of taxes. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ouTmD5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 12,2021: The government has engaged in endless borrowing and endless wasting since World War II, and at some point, according to the latest issue of Macro Link, we’ll have to meet the consequences of that. Consumer spending is at the lowest level in a decade, according to The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped to 66.8% in November. Over 4.4 million workers have quit their jobs amid expectations of inflation to further skyrocket as a holiday season rife with supply chain issues approaches. Christian Alexander, the founder of Macro Link, joins Maggie Lake to give his forecast. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3kz4nlL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 11,2021: Elon Musk sells over 4.5 million Tesla shares this week after posting a poll on Twitter about whether he should unload a tenth of his stake in the company and spurring controversy about taxation of the ultra-wealthy. Meanwhile, Rivian’s IPO, one of the US’s largest since Facebook, lifts off with an almost $88 billion valuation at market close on Wednesday. The IPO’s positive reception by investors spilled over into other EV stocks such as Nio and Fisker. Autonomous vehicle startup Aurora also had made its trading debut last week, the first AV company to go public, after the closure of its merger with a SPAC. With Tesla’s rivals cranking up the heat, Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, discusses his forward outlook for this burgeoning and increasingly competitive industry and for Tesla. Thornton also touches on gold, retail, and Chinese tech. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3C7kJb6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 10,2021: There’s no question about it: inflation is not transitory. The latest Consumer Price Index revealed prices of everything except food and energy went up 4.6%, the quickest spike since August 1991. The CPI also showed a 6.2% surge from October last year. U.S. consumers are feeling the hike in energy prices—oil is at nearly $82 a barrel, and electricity bills are at the highest they’ve been since 2009. Meanwhile, more automobile companies are joining the race to give Elon Musk a run for his money. The latest to enter the fray of Tesla rivals is the electric-vehicle startup Rivian, which debuted in trading today with the highest Initial Price Offer since 2014, starting at $78. The company’s valuation has already beaten Ford and General Motors. Jared Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Ash Bennington to discuss all of this and more. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3n2nIxm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov09,2021:What’s going on with General Electric? After a decade of being only a shell of its former self, the manufacturing giant founded by Thomas Edison is splitting up into three separate companies, each focused on aviation, health care, and energy. Tony Greer discusses why U.S. stocks suspended the longest rally since 2017 amid surging treasuries and why the S&P 500 collapsed for the first time in nine sessions. In other news, Greer analyzes why oil hit $84 a barrel as Bitcoin and Ethereum reached all-time highs. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3BZQseq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 08,2021:The House passed a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill on Friday to revamp the country’s transportation, utilities, and broadband structures. Meanwhile, despite Friday’s positive news of the October jobs report, U.S. treasury bonds still fell. This happened after the Fed’s announcement earlier last week to begin tapering bond purchases by $15 billion a month. On Twitter, Elon Musk shared a poll asking people to vote on whether he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock. Nearly 60% of those who participated in the poll voted yes, prompting Elon Musk to offload some stock to help pay his giant tax bill. Real Vision’s Petr Pinkhasov and Weston Nakamura host economist & trader Samuel Rines for a triple treat on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the infrastructure bill, U.S. treasury bonds, and Tesla stock. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oakS8T Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 05,2021: We’re ringing in the holiday season with some good news: U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 531,000 in October, beating the estimate of 450,000. Spreading more cheer, unemployment fell to 4.6%, a new pandemic low. As more people head back outside and hit the gym, a jewel of the pandemic, Peloton, suffers major blows to its stock today, falling nearly 35%. Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins to give his analysis of the Fed’s taper, the Bank Of England’s announcement to hold rates steady, the latest on inflation, the labor market, and today’s price action. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3BMVfj5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 04,2021: The Fed announced their long-awaited taper to begin later this month with room for adjustment based on changes in the economic outlook. While the Fed focuses on keeping the inflation rate at 2%, the Bank of England’s market-defying announcement to hold rates steady at the 0.1% benchmark has investors scratching their heads over the Fed's position in this ultra-inflationary environment. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins to discuss the implications of these policy decisions. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EOlwQi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 03,2021: The FOMC meeting begins today as Fed officials come together to decide on the tapering of their asset purchase program. The economic recovery seems to be slowly but surely underway with the ADP survey for October demonstrating unexpected strength with a 571,000 gain in jobs and the ISM Services index showing rapid growth at 66.7%. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to provide his overview of these developments and how this will influence economic growth. He also explores where bond yields are headed after the Fed announces the course of policy, what sectors are poised for outperformance, and the drivers behind crypto’s explosive run as Ethereum hits its new all-time high. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3k39MBl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 02,2021: Tony Greer is back on the Daily Briefing, this time discussing the events surrounding energy this week and the price action around oil, natural gas, uranium, and more. With COP26 underway in Scotland this week and next week, world leaders are discussing ways to fight climate change. So far, President Joe Biden has backed a plan to reduce methane emissions, one of the most harmful greenhouse gasses; Japan has pledged up to $10 billion to decarbonize Asia; and Jeff Bezos has pledged $2 billion to restore nature and transform food systems. As the clean energy transition is swiftly underway while the current European energy crisis worsens, Greer shares his perspective on the implications these events will have on energy prices. However, with the FOMC meeting tomorrow, investors are watching the Fed's next moves carefully as the decision to taper their bond purchases is fast approaching, and he discusses how the course of Fed policy will shape markets in the coming months. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3nSMjUE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Nov 01,2021: Seasonal effects on the markets are in play with heightened volatility and earnings causing aggressive price movement across asset classes. Katie Stockton, CMT, founder of Fairlead Strategies, dives into the charts to examine tech, commodities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. With mega cap tech stocks such as Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft leading equity markets higher and oil’s rally cooling slightly today, she evaluates both the technical and fundamental drivers underlying price action, lays out what investors should be watching for, and provides her forward outlook for the coming months into the new year. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bwZCUY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct 29,2021: The Core PCE Index's rise of 3.6% is the latest inflation pressure that has the markets beat. Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins to unpack the latest in the supply chain deterioration saga amid a weak labor market. With Facebook's latest announcement to change the company’s name to Meta, Raoul discusses why the metaverse is an entirely new layer of GDP with endless possibilities for crypto, NFTs, and social tokens. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3w0ExvE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct 28,2021: The last time Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners was on the Daily Briefing, he urged people to sell their Euro Dollars due to high inflation and a strengthening economy. Those factors continue to prevail, and Melandri says he expects inflation to soar higher and continue to apply pressure. Naked Wines, an online wine retailer in the U.K. that ships monthly wine subscriptions throughout the U.K., U.S., and Australia, bubbled up 30% after hedge fund manager Glen Kacher unveiled it as his fresh pick on CNBC’s “Halftime Report” show. Weekly jobless claims filings dropped to a new pandemic-era low of 281,000, indicating a steadily recovering labor market. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mlbxvh Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct27,2021: Orders for durable goods, big-ticket items that are meant to last over three years, have fallen 0.4% in September, the first decline since April of this year. This comes amid continuing labor shortages and increased material costs. General Motors and Boeing Co. specifically have felt the brunt of the supply chain issues with the releases of their quarterly earnings today, demonstrating less than stellar reports. The U.S. trade deficit also widened another 9.2%, equating to an additional $8.2 billion deficit. Real Vision Daily Briefing viewers are in for a treat as both Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, and Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, come together to discuss the macro variables impacting the economy. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mjYv0X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct26,2021: Earnings season continues with Microsoft, Twitter, Alphabet, Visa, and Robinhood due to release their reports today after market close. With the VIX also rising today, earnings thus far have beaten investor and analysts' expectations, lifting equities to all-time highs. Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap, maintains that it’s far too early to bet on a 180 move in inflation and growth—he claims that, "[The Fed] wouldn’t know how to stop it if they tried." He unpacks his argument here and reflects on investor sentiment as indicated by the raging success of the ProShares Bitcoin ETF launch from last week. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bf53aN Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct25,2021: Markets are up as stocks rally across the board ahead of weeklong releases of earning reports from tech giants Facebook, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple. PayPal also jumped 2.6% after it backed away from acquiring Pinterest. In the crypto world, last week’s Bitcoin ETF’s created a record $1.5 billion inflow. Tony Greer joins us on Daily Briefing to discuss the state of the markets. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vIvSO1 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct22,2021: Former President Donald Trump’s new social media company is skyrocketing on Wall Street, sparking speculation about whether this is the next meme stock. Meanwhile, current U.S. President Joe Biden backs away from hiking corporate taxes to fund his infrastructure and spending bill and is devising how to end the filibuster role in the Senate. Across the ocean in China, Evergrande is pulled back from the brink of default with a bond coupon, earning itself another week to pay its interest. And in the crypto world, Valkyrie launches its own Bitcoin Futures ETF today on the Nasdaq, but it sunk into the shadows of the ProShares ETF launched earlier this week. Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins to unravel this packed day in price action. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ngJqN7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct21,2021: Tesla stock jumped midday after reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings, a particularly commendable feat given the major supply chain issues plaguing several industries, while the Russell 2000 fell today in intraday trading. Notably, PayPal is shaking up the equities market with talks to acquire popular social media platform Pinterest. Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins us on the Daily Briefing to discuss the gamut of asset classes as well as what he's seeing in options trading for Tesla and why he thinks it might be a good time to buy the Russell 2000 ($IWM). Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3b03VI8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct20,2021: Bitcoin hits its all-time high at nearly $67,000 in intraday trading following the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF yesterday. VanEck may soon follow step with the launch of their own Bitcoin ETF as early as next week. Darius Dale, CEO and founder of 42 Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to break down Bitcoin's exuberant price action and the changes in his models that are leading him to believe that “reflation has emerged as the dominant market regime”. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3CeKuYd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct19,2021: After languishing for a decade, uranium prices are finally rising, which is now, in part, being driven up by enthusiastic, individual traders. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins to discuss how this resurgence of interest for the commodity will play out for the energy sector in light of also rising oil and natural gas prices. Greer also examines the price action of the newly launched ProShares Bitcoin ETF, which saw a 3% jump in its trading debut. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3C23QiY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct 18,2021: Bitcoin continued to climb to all-time highs with ProShares planning to launch the first ever Bitcoin-linked ETF, which will track the Bitcoin futures market, tomorrow on the NYSE. Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins the Daily Briefing to examine the trading around Bitcoin since the ETF was announced and will share his perspective on how it will continue to influence its trading going forward. Floyd also shares his thoughts on other assets and sectors he's looking at now, such as the ARK Innovation ETF, which he says “will be key for bulls and bears this week”. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3BXDDC7 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct 15,2021: Amid supply chain issues and inflation fears, the crypto wave continues strong with Bitcoin topping $60,000, nearing a record high. Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal discusses the massive arbitrage opportunity that the Bitcoin Futures ETF provides and what this means for the retail investor and the crypto industry as a whole. This week’s strong bank earnings triggered the markets' latest rally, signaling a continued strong recovery and easing slowdown concerns. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3vg6rmQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct 14,2021: With markets rallying across the board, Bank of America and Citigroup both reported stronger-than-expected results as the economy continues to improve. However, labor shortages persist. Thousands of workers at Deere & Co. went on strike Thursday for the first time in more than three decades to demand better pay. Even Domino’s is hurt by a worker shortage. Jack Farley and Ash Bennington together examine the market environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3veeEIn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct 13,2021: September’s CPI report revealed that, as energy and food prices climbed, consumer prices rose 0.4%, pushing the year-over-year inflation to an uncomfortably hot 5.4%. Yield curves flattened after the CPI released with shorter-dated yields rising and longer-dated yields falling. Tech stocks are advancing while banks and energy stocks are faltering, including JP Morgan ($JPM) despite their Q3 earnings topping analyst estimates. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins to discuss the rapidly rising probability of realizing stagflation in Q4. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ADpJna Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct12,2021: Energy prices continue to jump higher, and global supply shortages continue to worsen just as the IMF now cuts their growth forecast to 5.9%, which is 0.1% lower than their July forecast and is rooted in growing inflationary concerns and the potential of tightening monetary policy. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the Daily Briefing, diving into the energy sector and providing his outlook on oil and natural gas as well as increasing pressures on the economy from inflation to a fledgling recovery in labor markets. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lzM54U Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct11,2021: As the rotation out of mega-cap tech into energy & financials in equity market continues, Mark Ritchie II, Manager of RTM Capital, weighs in on whether there is an expiration on this trade. With Bitcoin rallying after a few weeks' lull Ritchie will also share his current technical views on crypto. At a lofty $80 a barrel, oil is already towering at a 7-year high. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3v3lmRp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct8,2021: The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data revealed that a mere 194,000 jobs were added in September, a major miss on the 500,000 median estimate and the slowest month in U.S. job growth so far in 2021. Meanwhile, U.S. crude futures peaked at $80 a barrel, the highest it's been since November 2014, as energy supply remains tight. Tune in to hear Jared Dillian's thoughts on this week's volatile price action, slowing economic growth, and the global energy crisis. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3FxQZr8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct7,2021: Lawmakers have reached an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December, which allows the debt limit to increase by $480 billion. With equities’ high volatility this week continuing to roil markets, economists are warning that the U.S. defaulting on its debt would lead to a recession and violent swings in financial markets. Natural gas and oil also are reaching astronomical levels, keeping investors on edge about the supply bottlenecks affecting Europe and the U.S. in the colder months to come. Steven Van Metre, president of Steven Van Metre Financial, joins the Daily Briefing to address the macro factors fueling this week’s market dynamics. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2ZZLiBH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct06,2021: With stocks rocking back and forth, crypto exploding, the ADP jobs report revealing a positive surprise, and natural gas gyrating up and down, this week's price action thus far has been very volatile. Darius Dale of 42 Macro returns to Daily Briefing to dig more into his macro framework and how he's thinking about inflation lately, and Jack Farley provides a quick update on the Evergrande crisis. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uQdGlo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct05,2021: Markets have made a comeback today with major European and US indices recovering most of yesterday’s losses. However, with September payroll data coming out later this week, will this rebound hold? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins us to discuss his outlook for markets this week and revisit his thoughts on stocks, bonds, commodities, and Bitcoin, as well as monetary and fiscal policy. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uIpcz2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct04,2021: U.S. equities begin the new week on unsteady footing with tech stocks taking a blow as the S&P 500 dips below its 100-day moving average and NASDAQ falls more than 2%. Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins us to share his outlook on bonds, equities, and currencies as well as the technical levels and indicators he is tracking. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3irZ0DZ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Oct01,2021: Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, gives us a recap of traditional markets from the past couple weeks, Fed talk, and Biden’s infrastructure bill. He also shares his thoughts on how both the Biden administration and Fed Chair Powell are keenly interested in imposing stricter regulations on stablecoins such as Tether as regulators fear the possibility of how stablecoins could cause instability in the financial system. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ioz8sH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep30,2021: Bed Bath & Beyond has plunged more than 20% in today’s trading after the company had downgraded their earnings outlook due to slowing consumption and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks. With Kohl's and Carmax following suit and the holiday season just around the corner, what does this signal about Q4 growth? Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, shares his updated thoughts on why the current inflation market regime “will prove anything other than transitory,” why he thinks dollar strength is occurring, and what he believes will be the posture of Fed policy in the coming months. Interviewed by Dion Rabouin. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3iFGUP5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep29,2021: The DXY is extending its rally from Tuesday, breaking the 94 level for the first time since the end of October last year. With yields now falling today and Senator Warren’s strong opposition toward Powell’s renomination as the Federal Reserve chair, calling him a “dangerous man,” Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins us to discuss what might be the course for tapering, rate policy, and fiscal stimulus and their consequences on markets and the economy. Interviewed by Dion Rabouin. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2YcT0Ij Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep28,2021: As the European energy crisis surges, concerns of its affects beyond the UK and EU manifest themselves in risk-off sentiment today in U.S. and European equities. With energy rates rising, Tony Greer of TG Macro joins us to discuss whether this signals another driver of a commodity supercycle. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2Y0EBP6v Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep27,2021: With Evergrande’s looming collapse and China’s ban on all crypto transactions, Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, sees that the next crisis will be coming from China—here, he shares his thoughts on if it’s time to go short and how the nature of denial affects an investor’s psyche. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2XOjbV8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep24,2021: China says goodbye to cryptocurrencies as the PBOC officially declares that all crypto transactions are now illegal. The crackdown comes as China plans to unveil its official digital Yuan early next year. Overnight crypto market action brings Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to the scene to discuss where China fits into the ever-evolving cryptocurrency regulatory narrative and what it portends for the future of the space. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AELHqV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep23,2021: With the Fed’s announcement that tapering may be coming as soon as November, Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial joins financial reporter Dion Rabouin to share his thoughts on the Fed’s next moves and how that will shape markets and the economy in the coming months. Van Metre also discusses Evergrande’s increasingly dire situation and whether he believes contagion will spread outside of China. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EHHghv Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep22,2021: With the FOMC meeting now coming to a close, Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, returns to examine Fed policy guidance on tapering and also shares his perspective on the risks facing markets going forward as Evergrande announces that it will pay at least one bond due tomorrow. Dale evaluates today's overwhelming rally in equities and shares his updated macro risk matrix. Interviewed by Real Vision's Jack Farley. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u40SqZ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep21,2021: With a potential shock to China’s financial system from Evergrande’s looming debt default and with Europe facing an energy crisis, Tony Greer of TG Macro joins financial reporter Maggie Lake to share how these dynamics can have an impact on commodities such as natural gas, oil, metals, and more. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3hRIfl6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep20,2021: Equities globally are in tumult, and volatility is rising sharply—Peter Boockvar, editor of the Boock Report and CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins financial reporter Dion Rabouin to provide his perspective on further market action this week as investors’ fears surrounding Chinese property developer Evergrande intensify. Boockvar also discusses weakening sentiment among home builders and what that says about ongoing inflationary pressure on the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2ZabcSV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep17,2021: Markets are down again today, bracing for potential impact by Evergrande and the FOMC’s upcoming meeting—Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, cuts through the market noise and provide his perspective on the unfolding saga of Evergrande. He also updates his thoughts on bonds and crypto. Interviewed by financial report Dion Rabouin. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lFTr5M Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep16,2021: In light of down day for U.S. markets and mixed economic data, Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Dion Rabouin come together to discuss the likelihood of a Fed taper announcement coming soon with the September FOMC meeting quickly rolling up. They also address the increasing anxiety around Evergrande as the Chinese property developer’s prospects continue to look more grim. Drop your questions here in the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2Xpd5uI Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep15,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, returns to the Daily Briefing to update viewers on the triple threat that Chinese risk assets face: the alarming slowdown in economic growth, the looming default of Evergrande, and the harsh regulatory crackdown by the Chinese government on companies, most recently Chinese gambling stocks such as Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. Dale then shares with Real Vision's Jack Farley his thoughts on inflation and the recent strength in commodities such as oil and aluminum. Drop your questions in the Exchange here: https://rvtv.io/398jAE6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep14,2021: With oil demand projected to continue strengthening for the rest of the year and OPEC upping their 2022 demand forecast, Tony Greer of TG Macro joins financial journalist Maggie Lake to analyze the sustainability of oil’s ongoing rally. Greer also shares an updated perspective on inflation as the CPI begins to cool off while prices remain elevated as well as on his long Bitcoin position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep13,2021:Weston Nakamura says now’s the time to go long Japan—he unpacks his bull case here. He also examines further Chinese regulation and crackdowns as China tech stocks tumble with the government’s announcement to break up Alipay, crypto market action with Litecoin spiking, and the ongoing commodities rally with crude oil reaching its 6-week high. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Drop your questions for Weston here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3C9JgNa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep10,2021: On today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal talks with senior editor Ash Bennington about how his macro framework is evolving when it comes to the dollar, bonds, and crypto. Raoul and Ash cover today’s sharp rise in the U.S. producer price index and what impact this will have on the Federal Reserve. Ash reports on Apple Inc ($AAPL) shedding over $80 billion in market capitalization after an unfavorable court ruling threatens one of its most profitable businesses. And still to come on this busy half hour, Raoul gives viewers a behind-the-scenes preview of his new weekly show on Real Vision, "Raoul Pal's Adventures in Crypto," where Raoul sits down with the greatest minds to figure out just where this digital asset and crypto revolution will lead us all. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep09,2021: TG Macro’s Tony Greer is now going long on Bitcoin—where does he see the future of crypto going? He explains here why he’s changed his tune, and he updates his thoughts on commodities—particularly oil—and whether the ECB’s announcement to slow the pace of their bond-buying program will have an impact on the assets that have benefited from the economy’s inflationary pulse. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Submit your questions on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38UoKUs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep08,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, anticipates that the Goldilocks regime will be persisting in the U.S. for awhile longer yet, offering fertile ground for asset prices to continue to perform. Drawing upon his macro indicators and analysis, he addresses the increasing bearish consensus being priced into risk assets and how tapering later in the year may have an impact on this dynamic. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Drop your questions for Darius here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3trKr7O Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep07,2021: Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his thoughts on why he sees the potential for inflation to fly even higher in the coming months. He also shares his perspective on what this means for commodities, particularly for uranium, as well as crypto’s flash crash. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep03,2021: With a major miss today in the August nonfarm payrolls report, Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, updates his perspective on the economic recovery and inflation as well as what it means for price action going forward. Bianco also discusses the major rallies for various layer 1 smart contract protocols as Solana, Polkadot, and Ethereum are soaring higher. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep02,2021: Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, shares his latest insights into current market dynamics, sectors set up for outperformance, and the state of the U.S. economy. With jobless claims reaching a new low since the early days of COVID-19, Lakha discusses what the August nonfarm payrolls data may also reveal about the labor market and what that means for Fed tapering. He also dives into what the options market is signaling about investor sentiment and volatility, and he updates his perspective on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Sep01,2021: On today's special edition of the Daily Briefing, Real Vision CEO & co-founder Raoul Pal celebrates the history and future of Real Vision. Raoul describes the company's founding in September 2014 and its journey as a financial media company dedicated to truth in finance. He also shares his own personal journey that's been adjacent to Real Vision's evolution, discussing how his framework has been shaped, challenged, and expanded for the past seven years. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug31,2021:As the S&P 500 posts a monthly gain for the seventh time in a row, Tony Greer of TG Macro returns to the Daily Briefing to share how the renewed dovishness of the Federal Reserve is shaping his outlook for commodities, stocks, and the dollar. In conversation with Real Vision’s Jack Farley, Greer contemplates the possibility of S&P 500 hitting the 5000 mark and explains why he remains bullish on copper, oil, aluminum, and other commodities. To post questions for tomorrow’s Daily Briefing with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, click this link on the Real Vision Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mQmZzE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug30,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, updates his macro framework for markets after Jay Powell announced at Jackson Hole that the Fed may begin to reduce stimulus this year and before the August nonfarm payrolls report drops later in the week. With monetary stimulus expected to taper off, Dale also examines if the same should be expected for fiscal policy, and he provides his perspective on Bitcoin and Ethereum as billionaire John Paulson calls crypto a “worthless” bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug27,2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, weighs in on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium, indicating tapering could start in 2021, but signaling there’s no rush to hike interest rates. He also revisits the inflation debate with a rise in personal income and spending. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug26,2021: Weston Nakamura and Petr Pinkhasov of Real Vision’s “The Exchange” join the Daily Briefing as markets anticipate the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which begins tomorrow. Plus, the team looks at how blockchain platform Tezos is growing inside big banks and baseball fields. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug25,2021: Max Wiethe joins the Daily Briefing to break down the day’s price action, including Gamestop ($GME) soaring upwards of 27% with the return of the meme stocks, as well as the SEC reinforcing its tough stance on Chinese tech with the threat of delisting in the U.S. Max also provides an update on the FX markets and his tips for successful momentum investing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug24,2021:Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to address a broad-base rally in stocks, the hacker behind $600 million Poly Network heist returning the stolen funds, and his thoughts on Chinese tech regulation and price action. Greer also provides an update to his framework, the assets he's been watching, and his perspective on the macroeconomy. Drop your questions here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38cvfBE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug23,2021: Maggie Lake welcomes markets reporter Dion Rabouin and Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to discuss the rebound in the major US equity indices on Monday and Japan’s PMI getting hit as well as the Eurozone demonstrating strengthening PMI numbers. Providing an update on his outlook, Dale examines whether the mixed PMI data is a foreshadowing for the future of global growth. Dale also shares his thoughts on whether there is more persistent inflation building up under the hood of the economy as well as Bitcoin’s jump to the $50k level. Drop your questions for Michael here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3B2oyOM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug20,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, to discuss the day’s price action as well as Green’s thoughts on Chinese tech and the eviction moratorium in the U.S. With Chinese tech companies listed in the U.S. set to have their worst declines in more than a decade, Green explains his perspective on what China’s clampdown means for the sector. He also tackles the Biden administration’s intention to continue the latest eviction moratorium while rental assistance makes its way to tenants and landlords as well as what this may indicate about the health of the economy. Drop your questions for Michael here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2WaEfol Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
BD-Aug19,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to update his framework for the U.S. economy and inflation as well as his outlook for equities, bonds, and commodities. After talks of tapering coming out of the FOMC minutes released yesterday, Thornton analyzes the market’s response with relatively little action in the major U.S. indices as well as the dollar's continued rise and commodities like oil and copper taking a hit. He offers his perspective on the state of antitrust concerns with the FAANGs with tech giants like Amazon’s plans to open department stores and Facebook’s move into the metaverse while a new antitrust suit is submitted against them by the FTC. Drop your questions for Tommy here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2Xxhew2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug18,2021:Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to dig deep into the Fed minutes released today and discuss whether there’s signs of tapering on the horizon and what that means for the economy. Dale shares his perspective on the ways in which the Fed’s decision to taper, and when, will shape his outlook for future inflation and growth as well as his thoughts on how it will impact various asset classes such as bonds, equities, and commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back to Tony Greer of TG Macro to provide an update on his framework, the sectors he’s watching, and his thoughts on inflation. Greer analyzes whether the 1.1% fall in U.S. retail sales in July points toward more of a shift in consumer preferences or whether it’s more indicative of price inflation pressures, and he and Bennington also discuss what sort of knock-on effects China’s crackdown on tech will have on markets, particularly on the tech sector, as the NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index continues to suffer from declines. Finally, Bennington provides a brief update on the Poly Network hack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to examine China’s economic slowdown in July and what risks that might pose to global economic growth as well as the Fed’s consideration of ending asset purchases by mid-2022. Dillian provides an update on his investment framework amidst concerning signals about the risks of an economic slowdown that would undermine the recovery in addition to the timeline of the Fed tapering and what the impact would be on markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug13,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley and Maggie Lake welcomes Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners to discuss the day’s price action as well as address dipping consumer sentiment and the possibility of the U.S. economy slowing. Lake analyzes the contributing factors to explain why consumer sentiment may be falling, and Farley examines whether that is reflective of a slowing economy. The trio also dive into eurodollar futures, debt monetization, the trajectory of inflation, and the Fed’s response function to provide a clearer picture of future growth and the overall macro environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug12,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington and Petr Pinkhasov welcome Weston Nakamura to examine the weekly jobs data, how yesterday’s core CPI actually hit below expectations, and updates on the Poly Network hack as well as a new attack on DAO Maker. Even as the jobless claims data show a third consecutive decline in new unemployment claims, demonstrating a more sustained recovery in the labor market thus far, Nakamura draws attention to the fact that core CPI actually came in below economist expectations, which might be signaling a deceleration in inflation. He unpacks why this was the case and what it means for the economy and markets in the coming months. Bennington also provides an update on the Poly Network hack and discusses a new one on DAO Maker that occurred today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug11,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley and markets reporter Dion Rabouin welcome Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to unpack the U.S. CPI released today, showing a rise of 0.5% in July. Boockvar examines the July’s CPI data and discusses how it is driving today’s price action in equities and bonds and what it means for inflation, monetary and fiscal stimulus, and various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug10,2021: Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to analyze the day's price action as well as discuss the economic ramifications of the $550 billion infrastructure bill as it passes in the Senate and how the crypto tax reporting rules in the bill will affect the digital assets space. Greer examines gold’s flash crash from earlier in the week and provides an update on how he’s thinking through other sectors such as commodities, equities, and bonds. The pair also explore how the infrastructure bill passing in the Senate could amp up the inflationary pressures the U.S. economy is currently facing and what it means for the crypto space and for those who invest in crypto assets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug09,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale to discuss the latest on the infrastructure bill and how the new amendment on crypto will affect digital assets as well as gold's swift overnight plunge and Bitcoin's surge. Bennington discusses the new proposed tax laws on crypto within the infrastructure bill and explains what they mean going forward for crypto investors as well as analyzes Bitcoin's recent jump higher. Farley and Dale then approach the bill from a different angle by exploring its impact on inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy, and they also examine Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 earnings report. Finally, the trio discuss what's next for gold following Sunday’s plunge. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug06,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Real Vision founder, Raoul Pal, to discuss market price action resulting from the July non-farm payroll report and Robinhood’s wild week of trading. Pal looks at equity sectors that he is watching and explains whether the positive jobs numbers forecast long-term economic strength. The pair looks at Robinhood’s large move higher and dives into the influence of the retail trader. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug05,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss today’s market reaction towards the improvement in the labor market and important updates to the Ethereum network. Bianco covers the decline in unemployment claims and considers whether this trend is sustainable as the delta variant continues to hamper full reopening. The trio also looks at the London hard fork update to Etheruem and its potential effects on Ether’s price and long-term prospects for the network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug04,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley, Petr Pinkhasov, and Weston Nakamura break down a day of confounding price action across global markets. Farley and Pinkhasov cover the disappointing change in U.S. Employment from the ADP, which triggered a rally in U.S. Treasury bonds, and the ISM Services reading, which blew away expectations and caused those same bonds to sell-off later in the morning. The trio examines the wild surge in Robinhood stock ($HOOD), with Nakamura and Pinkhasov exploring potential profitable trades that could profit from this enormous volatility. For the "Week Ahead" post on the Exchange that Petr referenced, click here: https://rvtv.io/3ln9Zko To watch the interviews from Real Vision's oil week, click here: https://www.realvision.com/lp/oil-week/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug03,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to analyze the day’s price action as well as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s remarks on crypto regulation. Greer provides an update on his thoughts on equities, commodities, and inflation and his perspective on what market risks are posed to the economy by the coming end of mortgage forbearance and what greater regulation in the crypto space means for digital assets going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Aug02,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, to discuss today’s market sentiment as investors receive Chinese PMI data and the Senate looks to close on a decision for Biden’s infrastructure bill. Dale comments on today’s strong open and his updated framework for the markets. The trio looks at sectors that could benefit from the passing of Biden’s bill as well as the strength of the global economy reflected in the Chinese PMI. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Christian Angermayer, founder of Apeiron Investments, Atai Life Sciences, and COMPASS Pathways, made headlines for attributing his decision to invest in Bitcoin to a trip on mushrooms, but his journey as an investor and advocate for psychedelics goes much deeper than the clickbait. In this interview with Mike Green, Angermayer discusses how he went from a successful investor living the straight edge life to founding and eventually IPOing two startups, which are at the cutting edge of research into how mushrooms and other psychedelics could revolutionize the way we think about treating mental health issues. Together, they discuss the parallels between the modern human experience and other times of great change, how this is manifesting itself in societal and individual angst, and why this might make today the perfect time for broader acceptance of these treatments. They also touch on Green's own personal experience with mushrooms and Angermayer's optimistic approach to investing in technologies driving human progress. Recorded on May 8, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to explain how the accelerating pace of technological progress is rapidly transforming business and life as we know it. Azhar identifies how technologies such as vaccines, renewable energy, and additive manufacturing (commonly known as "3D printing") are advancing at a rate faster than previously thought possible. He and Harrison discuss the "winner-take-all" dynamics of technological process, and Azhar argues that the era of "diminishing returns" and economies of scale is over—there is no limit to how much market share a company can command, save for government regulation. Accordingly, Azhar thinks there could be some "pitchfork risk" of a populist backlash. He and Harrison discuss the implications of this as well as universal basic income, potential bubble signals, and crypto. Recorded on May 12, 2021. To continue the discussion with fellow Real Vision members on Ed's and Azeem's interview, click here to visit the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3olruRt Key learnings: For companies who can leverage 'network effects,' the addition of each customer is accretive to the value of every other customer. This effect can create a world in which companies can expand their operations with accelerating, rather than diminishing, returns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul30,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II, CIO at RTM Capital Advisors, to share his thoughts on earnings for tech and energy companies as well as the continued uncertainty surrounding Chinese tech stocks. Ritchie covers the market’s negative reactions towards Amazon’s earnings release and its signaling of economic growth. The trio looks at the continued crackdown against Chinese tech equities and overcrowding of the U.S. IPO market. At the end of today’s briefing, Ash and Jack will preview the fifth part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul29,2021: Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss his outlook for the economy by analyzing jobless claim data and GDP forecasts in addition to commenting on Robinhood’s IPO. The trio covers the decline in jobless claims and its implications for the state of the labor market. Dillian examines Robinhood’s price action on its first day of trading and criticism of its payment for order flow business model. During today’s briefing, Ash and Jack will preview the fourth part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul28,2021: Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura sits down with Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to share his thoughts on price action related to the FOMC meeting today and the recovery in Chinese equities. Nakamura covers data implying a slowdown of the economy even as inflation prints continue to remain higher than expected. The pair explains the recent bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin and the mixed sentiment in Chinese markets as stocks begin to recover from the sharp sell-off. During today’s briefing, Jack will preview the third part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Continue the conversation with Jack and Weston over at the Real Vision Exchange! https://rvtv.io/exchAfterHours728 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Gathering Special: Mustafa Yilham, VP of Global Business Development at Bixin; Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer for CoinShares; Caroline Cochran, co-founder and chief operating officer of Oklo; and Whit Gibbs, founder and CEO of Compass Mining discuss how Bitcoin will ultimately prove a net positive for the greening of the planet. Given recent comments from individuals such as Elon Musk on their concerns over Bitcoin's adverse affects on the environment, the Real Vision Crypto team felt that it would be only proper to present our audience with an alternative viewpoint. Recorded live on March 24, 2021 at Real Vision's Crypto Gathering. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul27,2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington on the Daily Briefing to discuss price action within the NASDAQ as well as the continued onslaught against Chinese tech companies. Thornton walks through the sectors that he believes are strong and how to navigate the uncertainty surrounding popular tech companies in China. At the conclusion of today’s briefing, Ash will preview the second part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul26,2021: Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s rebound, Chinese regulatory concerns, and deflationary signals on Dale’s radar. Dale explains potential tailwinds for Bitcoin’s recent strength despite the increase in China’s regulation of technology and educational companies. Before the briefing concludes, Ash and Jack will preview an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Could a slowdown in credit creation and a tightening of monetary conditions push bond yields lower and threaten risk assets? Alfonso Peccatiello, fixed income investor and publisher of the Macro Compass, believes that’s possible. Peccatiello contends that inflation is indeed transitory, and, disagreeing with the "bond vigilantes," he argues that cash, bonds, and volatility protection will perform better in this environment than high-beta assets such as commodities and bank stocks. Interviewed by Real Vision’s Jack Farley on July 2, 2021. Peccatiello's blog, The Macro Compass, can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul23,2021: Along with Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal welcomes Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, for his Real Vision Daily Briefing debut. As a special edition of the Daily Briefing, Pal and Brigden will be diving deep into their respective frameworks, discussing the differences in how they’re seeing the macro picture as well as rallying around where they are aligned. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul22,2021: Petr Pinkhasov of Real Vision's Exchange joins Real Vision’s Samuel Burke and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss new data related to jobless claims in addition to developments surrounding central bank actions to deal with inflation. Pinkhasov also explains the effect of supply increases on oil prices and how central banks are approaching tapering asset purchases. The trio analyzes the increase in jobless claims despite the labor shortage that many business owners are experiencing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Special ; Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Ryan Berckmans, investor and Ethereum community member, to discuss the evolution of Ethereum and the changes forthcoming that will further solidify its role in the crypto ecosystem. Berckmans explains that Ethereum’s novelty stems from being an open-access global computer, which leads to credible neutrality, and he lays out how this undergirds Ethereum’s tactical applications. He also talks through Ethereum’s transition to a proof of stake (PoS) protocol and what benefits this transition holds for Ethereum and for the crypto space as a whole. Recorded on May 27, 2021. Key Learnings: Berckmans describes how Ethereum is a credibly neutral platform as an open-access world computer, allowing developers to leverage its network for end user and middleware applications and leading to more innovative and frictionless executions of financial services. He also discusses how one of the biggest risks to the Ethereum network currently is its transition to a PoS protocol; however, the development of Ethereum 2.0 will offer more security alongside opportunities for scaling and value generation that would otherwise be impossible on a proof of work (PoW) model. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul21,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to share his insights into market expectations of economic growth as stocks continue to move higher and inflation fears wane. The trio takes a look at Bitcoin’s price actions as it struggles to meaningfully move higher. Boockvar also dives into the recent bond rally to determine investor expectations of inflation and examines the future of oil prices as supply increases are imminent. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul20,2021: With U.S. stocks rallying off of yesterday’s steep selloff while bonds remain relatively flat, what risks are markets pricing in currently, and what opportunities does that lead to for investors? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Ash Bennington, senior editor at Real Vision, to discuss Greer’s impression of the Monday selloff and what that spells for equities, bonds, commodities, and the dollar going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul19,2021: Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Ash Bennington to share his updated framework on equity markets, bond yields, and oil prices as delta variant concerns force a market correction. Dale dives into macro data points indicating whether the stock market correction is driven by the delta variant or overbought assets. The trio also examines OPEC’s decision to boost output and its long-term implications for oil’s bull run this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Christian Angermayer, founder of Apeiron Investments, Atai Life Sciences, and COMPASS Pathways, made headlines for attributing his decision to invest in Bitcoin to a trip on mushrooms, but his journey as an investor and advocate for psychedelics goes much deeper than the clickbait. In this interview with Mike Green, Angermayer discusses how he went from a successful investor living the straight edge life to founding and eventually IPOing two startups, which are at the cutting edge of research into how mushrooms and other psychedelics could revolutionize the way we think about treating mental health issues. Together, they discuss the parallels between the modern human experience and other times of great change, how this is manifesting itself in societal and individual angst, and why this might make today the perfect time for broader acceptance of these treatments. They also touch on Green's own personal experience with mushrooms and Angermayer's optimistic approach to investing in technologies driving human progress. Recorded on May 8, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Legendary venture capitalist Bill Tai is an expert in identifying exponential trends. He has been an angel investor in more than 20 companies that have gone public, including Zoom and Dapper Labs. Tai returns to Real Vision to share with co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal what makes an exponential valuation and how the low interest rate environment has caused a surge in P/E multiples, richly rewarding high-growth technology companies. The two discuss how the current wave of NFTs and the adoption of the Metaverse unlock a new layer of value that brings economic empowerment, resulting in a new style of business based around community and platforms. Recorded May 7, 2021. Key Learnings: Tai is now looking to invest in companies with massively asymmetric risk, such as healthcare and renewables, where he sees potential for network effects to be created in these sectors. He shares his guiding principles behind every technology company he invests in: lower the friction to a use case, increase replicability of the behavior, and build a back end tuned for great scalability. To continue the discussion with fellow Real Vision members on Raoul and Bill's interview, click here to visit the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uHKsUL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Nick Halaris, president at Metros Capital, welcomes Jim Rehlaender, CEO at JLP Asset Management, to discuss the US housing market, Covid-19's impact on real estate, and the effects of rising raw materials prices. He argues that rising construction costs and heightened demand for suburban land have contributed to the increase in home prices. This has presented a unique opportunity in rental properties as families decide where they want to settle after the pandemic. Rehlaender does not believe that high lumber prices are sustainable as an uptick in interest rates and delaying developments will curtail the demand for homes. The pair also discuss the impact on commercial real estate as businesses decide if their employees will return to work in person or remain remote. Recorded on June 8, 2021. Key Learnings: Rehlaender explains his firm’s strategy of investing in publicly listed companies that are owners or operators of real estate assets. As Rehlaender analyzes potential investments, he ensures that the company has a good management team and an effective business strategy. He stresses that it is important to invest in people that can help poorly managed properties recover. However, if Rehlaender's team does not understand the market dynamics or property type, they will avoid investing in that company. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-July16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to share his thoughts on Real Vision’s recent campaign, “After the Hype: Reality Sets in for NFTs” as well as provide a strategic update on his macro thinking. Together, they discuss the highlights from the campaign as well as their takeaways, and Raoul explains the role that NFTs serve in his Exponential Age framework. He also touches on the broader financial markets, talking through his perspective on the evolving inflation narrative that has captured market sentiment. To learn more about "After the Hype: Reality Sets in for NFTs," click on this link here: https://rvtv.io/NFTWeek Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-July15-2021: Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirtnap joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss a pandemic low for jobless claims and market reactions to recently released manufacturing surveys. The trio takes a look at the labor market dichotomy between jobless claim decreases and labor shortages. Dillian shares his perspective on sectors he is watching as FED governors voice their support for tapering talks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior crypto editor, hosts Bitcoin developer, educator, and entrepreneur Jimmy Song to discuss how his thoughts on Bitcoin have been evolving over the last year, its future, alt-season, and the path to decentralization. Song states that value is not intrinsic, but rather subjective, and is the utility an individual can derive out of it. He explains that scarcity also factors into value, particularly money, and in that regard, Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value. As the current monetary system has a constant flow of money pushed through the economy at a high velocity, thereby creating wealth, Song explores how any form of solitary money would lose value in this system and how long-term stores of value such as real estate, stocks, and gold have power consolidated among only a few, which makes this system flawed. On the other hand, Bitcoin does not have any of these problems. Recorded on May 10th, 2021. Key Learnings: Song states Bitcoin is a savings technology, one that can be used over a long period of time. This, in turn, allows societies to focus on improving the future. Within the current monetary system, continual currency debasement, re-investment, and losses due to transactional fees can burden individuals too heavily in retaining the value of their money and can prevent society from bringing new goods and services to the market. Song believes Bitcoin is a civilization building technology, which can enable society to flourish in new and exciting ways. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul 13,2021: Tommy Thornton, president at Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss the CPI print released today, equity pricing, and earnings season. Thornton, along with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, examines the effect that the CPI print will have on the FED’s dovish commitment to the economy. Additionally, the pair looks at how different markets are reacting to the high consumer price index figure and if sentiment is changing towards inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul12,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on inflation expectations and market sentiment as the S&P 500 hits a new intra-day high. Dale joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Samuel Burke to examine the results of the New York Fed’s Consumer Survey for inflation expectations. Additionally, the trio looks at the possibility of an ECB policy shift as it looks to continue its monetary stimulus to support Europe’s reopening economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: The risk of inflation is clearly one of the top market narratives for 2021, and many investors are buying in. But how do you actually build a portfolio to benefit from inflation? Whether it's energy, real estate, precious metals, or soft commodities, everyone seems to have a different answer. James Davolos, portfolio manager and research analysts at Horizon Kinetics, is responsible for doing just that, in their fund $INFL. In this interview with Ed Harrison, he explains his framework for building a diversified portfolio that benefits from inflation. Davolos also explains what inflation means to him and how he measures it, as everyone seems to have a different definition of what inflation actually is and how best to measure it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Imran Lakha of Options Insight and Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma are veterans of the options market, and they join Real Vision to shed light on how options exert a hidden pressure on the stock market. Most associate the phrase “gamma squeeze” with GameStop, but Kochuba notes that gamma squeezes are very common, noting the various ways in which dislocations in dealer gamma can drive price action in indices such as the S&P 500 but also in single-name equities like Tesla and Apple. He describes his quantitative method to identify levels of gamma resistance in single-name equities and index futures, using detailed charts levels to spot what he names "call walls" and "volatility triggers." Kochuba and Lakha make sense of the drastic transformation the options market has undergone over the past year, and they speculate on the future of this highly sophisticated asset class. Lastly, Lakha shares with Kochuba his findings in the nascent world of crypto derivatives. Recorded on May 3rd, 2021. Key learnings: The explosion in single-stock option volumes means that options are now playing a huge role in driving price action in the equity market. Kochuba argues that this new environment offers the venturesome trader an opportunity to exploit the option market makers' to hedge their exposure. Lakha notes that Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibit call skew, which offers opportunities that are rarely seen in traditional capital markets. Lakha's website is https://www.options-insight.com/ and Kochuba's analysis can be found here: https://spotgamma.com/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Dario Perkins, managing director of macro at TS Lombard, argues that we are seeing a global regime shift in economic policy from monetary dominance to fiscal dominance. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Perkins explains how this change will have wide-ranging implications for economies and financial markets. He sees Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as instrumental as the "software" for making this shift possible. But although he welcomes change, Perkins believes the endgame for this structural break is inflation. In the medium-term, that will mean greater economic growth, gently rising bond yields, and a return to value over growth in equity markets. But eventually, down the line, inflation will set in. Perkins believes gold is the hedge for that outcome. Recorded on April 29, 2021. For more on Dario Perkins' background, click here: https://www.tslombard.com/dario-perkins. TS Lombard's website can be found here: https://www.tslombard.com/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
CB-Jul09,2021: The 8-day rally in U.S. Treasury bonds finally breaks as global equities take back much of yesterday’s sell-off. Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Weston Nakamura, and Jack Farley analyze today’s price action, as well as how the surge in job openings surge in the U.S. is reshaping dynamics in the American labor market. Lastly, Weston shares his thinking on correlations between U.S. bond yields and price swings in $AMC and other meme stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul08,2021: Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Samuel Burke and Jack Farley to make sense of the risk-off sentiment that dragged down almost every stock index worldwide deep in the red. Boockvar scrutinizes the U.S. bond market and attributes the violent flattening of the yield curve to the FOMC meeting earlier this month that rocked market participants. He tells Burke and Farley how the churning of certain reflation trades in light of the Delta Variant is affecting his perspective on energy, copper, precious metals, as well as equity markets in Developed Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul07,2021 :Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on FAANG stocks, the retreat from Chinese tech stocks, and the release of the FED’s FOMC minutes. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Samuel Burke to discuss the rise in tech stocks as bond yields fall to a 4-month low. Additionally, the trio analyzes DIDI’s situation amidst Chinese regulation and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting released today Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal hosts Mathias Imbach, co-founder of Sygnum, to discuss Imbach's background, Sygnum's services, European regulations, central banks, and the future of digital currencies. The notion of leveraging today's internet infrastructure to monetize data at the cost of users triggered a fear in Imbach concerning where the current financial structure could ultimately lead. It was in the discovery of the Ethereum white paper that Imbach realized that there could be a better way with smart contracts giving users more control over their data. With that in mind, Imbach co-founded Sygnum with the goal to build a system that was regulatory compliant to help bring real adoption to the space, building a bridge from today's financial world to where they believe future finance will be. Imbach explains that Sygnum's mission is to empower everyone with more access to ownership and value, and he explains that while one may view a bank as doing the opposite because it is a centralized entity, it’s the first step toward that ultimate goal. It requires taking regulators, governments, and national banks along with you from a legacy system to help found and scale a new one. Key Learnings: Imbach states that although Sygnum has a banking license, he identifies the firm as a technology company. According to Imbach, the ethos of Sygnum is that the future has heritage. While the current financial infrastructure is heading towards a smarter, more decentralized, and accessible direction, elements of today's world will not simply vanish—Sygnum aims to combine these elements. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jul06,2021 :Weston Nakamura returns to the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on oil prices as OPEC+ struggles to strike a deal. Nakamura, joined by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, shares his thoughts on other commodities and market sentiment as elevated prices could serve as evidence for temporary supply bottlenecks or persistent inflation. The pair looks at China’s increased regulation and its impact on Chinese companies traded in U.S. markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: At a time when the mainstream narrative revolves around the risk of an overheating US economy and consumer price inflation, David Rosenberg, president and chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., is the ultimate contrarian voice. In this interview with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Rosenberg acknowledges the strength of the US economy and is willing to switch tack if the data warrant it later this year. However, he expects, contrary to most, that the economy’s vigor will fade as government stimulus does and that the post-financial crisis precautionary savings rates to go even higher in this cycle, resulting in less growth and less inflation than is priced into US equities. Rosenberg remains bullish on bonds and on Asian equities, particularly in China. Believing that alpha is king now, he thinks we have entered a stock picker’s world where riding an uptrend through passive investing or in ETFs will not work. Filmed on April 27, 2021. If you want to keep up with Rosenberg's research, you can start a free 30-day trial here: https://bit.ly/3pQ4nyB. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today.
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DB-Jul02,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II, CIO at RTM Capital Advisors, to discuss the June jobs report and capital markets price action. The trio covers the strong increase in U.S. jobs and its effects on underlying markets. Bennington and Farley analyze the rise in both bonds and stocks as positive employment data boost investor confidence. Ritchie provides his insight into the equity markets and the potential rotation back into tech. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today.
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DB-Jul01,2021 :Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Samuel Burke, managing editor, and Weston Nakamura to discuss the decline in U.S. jobless claims and surging oil prices as OPEC agrees to increase production. The trio covers the economic recovery as jobless claims decline and advanced unemployment benefits expire. Additionally, they explain the implications of OPEC’s decision to increase production starting in August as oil prices spike due to demand from wealthy countries. Burke and Farley continue to follow the delta variant as new countries institute travel restrictions to prevent the spread. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today.
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DB-Jul01,2021 :Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Samuel Burke, managing editor, and Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap to the Daily Briefing to discuss U.S. treasury yields, commodity prices, and delta variant concerns. Dillian explains his investment framework amidst growing fears of the delta variant in the U.S. The trio covers decreasing treasury yields and their effect on the inflation trade. Further, they examine the nuances of the commodity market as lumber prices move lower and oil prices remain resilient. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today.
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Crypto Wednesday: To learn more about Decentral Park and how to participate in their fund visit: http://rvtv.io/DeFiinvestment John Quinn, CIO and general partner of Decentral Park Capital, discusses the fastest growing sector of the crypto market today—decentralized finance (DeFi). Founded in 2017, Decentral Park Capital is a digital asset manager that brings a combination of long experience in traditional finance, emerging market business development, and deep domain expertise in the digital asset domain. Quinn describes DeFi as a collection of applications across a wide range of financial primitives that seek to replicate legacy financial blocks on-chain, which means middle-men are quickly being replaced by middleware, unlocking huge efficiencies in the process. DeFi has already climbed to a $120 billion market in just a few years, finding clear product-market fit along the way, and Decentral Park’s thesis is that DeFi represents the brand new backbone of the global financial system. Decentral Park is launching their new 24-month DeFi Fund that will be investing solely in assets that sit within this growing DeFi ecosystem. Prior to Decentral Park Capital, John co-founded Storj Labs, a leading decentralized cloud storage provider. Prior to that, he was a tech investment banker at Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. Recorded on March 19, 2021. Key Learnings: One of the most valuable aspects of DeFi is that it is open and permissionless, which stands in stark contrast to traditional finance. DeFi has grown tremendously over the last few years, but it is still in the very early days in its adoption life cycle. Decentral Park Capital's use of on-chain data can provide valuable insights to those looking for big investment opportunities in the DeFi space.
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DB-Jun29,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision interim managing editor Samuel Burke and Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s rebound and market sentiment as delta variant fears grow. Thornton shares his bullish outlook for Bitcoin and potential explanations for its recent bounce from 6-month lows. In addition, Burke provides a unique perspective on European lockdowns and investor opinions as the delta variant of Covid-19 continues to spread. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today.
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DB-Jun28,2021: Real Vision managing editor Samuel Burke welcomes Jack Farley and Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to the Daily Briefing to discuss Dale’s macro outlook and weigh the possibility of deflation. The trio will cover the recent U.K. ban on Binance and its effects on crypto assets. Additionally, they will discuss the strength of the dollar and GDP projections in a potentially deflationary environment. Finally, they will examine oil stocks ahead of the OPEC meeting scheduled for Thursday. For our Listeners:
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Real Vision Live Replay: Michael Vranos, founder and CEO of Ellington Management Group, has been known as "the most powerful man on Wall Street" and, over the course of his almost 30 years running Ellington, has been able to adapt his firm, generating exceptional risk-adjusted returns through the LTCM crisis in 1998, the GFC in 2008, and most recently the COVID-19 crisis of 2020. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Vranos will share his personal journey; the early lessons he learned from LTCM and how he structured his firm accordingly; his views on leverage, tail risk hedging, and the costs and benefits of illiquid investments; and the current opportunities he is eyeing in financial equities like REITs, structured credit, and loan securitization. Viewers should be aware that this is an interview for pros by pros, and although not inherently actionable for most individual investors, it should be viewed as an unbelievable look behind the curtain of how one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time thinks about markets and the business of running a hedge fund. To go alongside this segment, we've prepared a set of notes for this interview. You can access them here: https://rvtv.io/3gm1vYf
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The Interview: Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to evaluate the health of the economy and how it impacts the future path of assets such as bonds, real estate, and stocks. Shilling notes that the consensus view—that the economy is going to re-open very rapidly, that inflation is going to come roaring back, and that interest rates will go through the roof—contradicts the lessons he has learned across his storied career in financial markets. Shilling argues that the four-decade-long trend of declining interest rates on U.S. Treasurys will continue, and he shares with Harrison several investment ideas in commodities and bonds that allow investors to be cautious without being actively bearish. Shilling and Harrison also discuss trends such as working-from-home, the residential real estate boom, and the savings glut in Asian countries. Recorded on April 21, 2021. Key learnings: Shilling is very bullish on bonds and views the recent rise in commodity prices with some skepticism. He has his eye on small positions and is only willing to size-up his trades once he has seen confirmation of his thesis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Marin Katusa, chairman of Katusa Research, returns to Real Vision to share a new thesis on how the rise of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) will forever transform the way commodities are produced. Katusa argues that companies that comply with ESG standards will be able to secure a lower cost of capital and, in so doing, will be at an extreme advantage to those who do not. Katusa provides his updated views on gold, silver, copper, uranium, and rare earths, and he argues that green energy will be a catalyst for America to re-emerge as the global hegemon of the world order. Katusa is the author of the recently released book, "The Rise of America: Remaking the World Order." Recorded on May 20, 2021. Key learnings: Katusa argues that companies and investors who can ride the ESG wave will be handsomely rewarded, but that those who ignore this inexorable change do so at their own peril. He is very constructive on carbon credits, particularly "blue" carbon credits, and thinks that copper and silver might have run a bit too hot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun25,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal to the Daily Briefing to discuss his thoughts on inflation, the strength of the dollar, and winners in an exponential age. The pair will cover potential explanations for flattened personal spending as continued supply constraints push prices higher. Additionally, they will dive into the companies positioned to succeed in an era that emphasizes network effects. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Db-Jun24,2021 : Real Vision’s Samuel Burke, Jack Farley Ash Bennington discuss U.S President Joe Biden’s announcement that a deal on infrastructure has been reached, and the potential significance that the bond market barely budged on the news. They also analyze how the re-emergence of share buybacks will affect an equity market that continues to make all-time highs. The three also explore whether recent economic data, such as durable goods orders and jobless claims, indicate a rising potential of deflation. Special Festival of Learning offer - 10% off with the code DAILYBRIEFING. http://www.realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun23,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Samuel Burke, Real Vision managing editor, and Weston Nakamura to the Daily Briefing to discuss the S&P 500 trending higher, effects of global vaccination campaigns, and the rise in oil prices. The trio will analyze the bullish sentiment present in the market as vaccination rates continue to improve. Nakamura and Burke also look at the oil market as summer driving demand escalates. Special Festival of Learning offer - 10% off with the code DAILYBRIEFING. http://www.realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Aztec co-founder Thomas Walton-Pocock hosts Zooko Wilcox, CEO of Electric Coin Company, to discuss Zcash, privacy, technical barriers, and innovation. Zcash, a decentralized, open-source cryptocurrency, is most identified by individuals for its built-in encryption which allows for private data in a public blockchain. Zcash's most important feature, according to Wilcox, is its dev fund—it's self-funding, which allows developers to continuously improve the protocol in order to prevent the currency from being undermined, weakened, vulnerable to capture, or steered in a direction for an individual's benefit. Some investors treat privacy, whether offered by Zcash or any other protocol, merely as an additional feature; however, Wilcox explains that because privacy is a fundamental aspect of its design, the Zcash protocol is stronger than other protocols that add privacy as a feature on top. Recorded on April 20, 2021. Key Learnings: According to Wilcox, privacy is a human right—consumers need it and are losing it to the internet. Wilcox saw Bitcoin as having a head start, and Zcash would be a niche alternative for those who were especially sensitive or motivated, or most importantly, for commerce. With its funding, continuous evolution, and use of zero knowledge, Wilcox believes that Zcash and its scalability could become the gold standard for usage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun,22,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry and to the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s crash, FED Chair Powell’s testimony, and market sentiment as stocks rebound. The pair will cover potential explanations for Bitcoin’s reversal as well as implications for companies in the space such as Coinbase. Additionally, they will dive into both commodity and stock market reactions to FED Chair Powell’s testimony on the state of the economy. Special Festival of Learning offer - 10% off with the code DAILYBRIEFING. www.realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Michael Kao, CEO of Akanthos Capital Management, returns to Real Vision to give his outlook on oil and energy markets. Kao highlights energy's outperformance in inflationary environments, positive roll dynamics making carrying long oil futures more attractive, and the shift in policy for OPEC+. Kao also highlights two potential feedback loops he sees for oil--one sending prices higher and the other creating issues for oil and other risk assets. Finally, Kao takes a long-term view analyzing when and how EV penetration will actually affect oil demand and the question of whether shale production will spoil the next big oil price spike. Recorded on April 20, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-JUN 21,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and managing editor Samuel Burke to the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s recent decline, FED policy implications, and American Airlines. The trio will analyze China’s crackdown on Bitcoin mining as well as increased regulation of cryptocurrency services for China’s largest banks. Additionally, they will cover American Airline’s logistical problems as travel demand returns and explain the differing inflation outlooks highlighted in the FED’s dot plot ahead of Chair Powell’s meeting with Congress on Tuesday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: The global currency market dwarfs all other markets in its size. Although in weeks like this it is easy to get sucked in by the high volatility in equities, bonds, and crypto, the currency market can provide huge signals about what is actually going on under the surface. Andreas Steno Larsen, chief strategist at Nordea Markets, returns to Real Vision to update viewers on his outlook for major and exotic currency pairs and to help viewers make sense of the signals that currencies are sending for other assets amid a spike in bond and equity volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Dwight Anderson of Ospraie Ag Science is well known as one of Julian Robertson’s famous "Tiger Cubs" and, for the last 20 years, has been one of the leading investors in agriculture and farming. After realizing the headwinds on the horizon for farmers and traditional agriculture investments, his focus has shifted to the cutting edge of agriculture technologies that will help farmers combat these headwinds by farming smarter, more efficiently, and more sustainably. In addition to highlighting the most important trends and technologies in agtech, Anderson will discuss the case for agtech as an ESG investment for carbon reduction, illustrate the ways agtech can help fight nutritional disparities in the U.S., and break down the difference in opportunity sets between public and private markets. Recorded on April 16, 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun18,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to explore recent price action of the key macro variable--the dollar--and its impact on markets. In light of the DXY breaking to the upside in the past couple days, Pal provides an update on his macro outlook and where the inflation narrative fits into his perspective. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun17,2021: Senior editor Ash Bennington and editor Jack Farley welcome Real Vision’s new interim managing editor Samuel Burke to the Daily Briefing. The trio cover the big declines in commodities such as gold, oil, and soybeans alongside a rally in the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond and technology stocks. In the crypto world, Burke inspects the World Bank’s rejection of El Salvador’s request to use Bitcoin as legal tender, and Bennington updates viewers on the utter collapse of a stablecoin known as Titan. Farley and Burke also take a look at OnlyFans’ exploration to sell shares as well as the Bank of America’s fund managers survey, which shows that the majority of portfolio managers agree with the Federal Reserve that inflation will be transitory. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Ed Harrison and Jack Farley to break down an action-packed day as Fed Chair Jerome Powell responds to mounting inflationary pressure with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluding their two-day policy meeting. The group covers how the market participants are reacting in real time, not only to the Fed’s direct actions but also their forward projections of interest rates (known as “the dot plot”) as well as their estimates for future economic growth and inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Crypto: As people are spending increasingly more time in virtual worlds (also known as the metaverse), Janine Yorio, managing director of Republic Realm, joins Real Vision's Haley Draznin to discuss an entirely new asset class that has evolved: digital real estate investment. The fund focuses on the acquisition, management, development, and sale of virtual land, known as parcels, across metaverses including Decentraland, The Sandbox, Axie Infinity, CryptoVoxels, among others. Recorded on April 21, 2021. Key Learnings: Digital real estate has the potential to deliver long-term outsized returns due to the rise of cryptocurrencies and the rapidly growing digital currency asset class. It is evolving into a viable store of wealth like real-world real estate, real-world art, and even website domain names due to its scarcity value, ability to monetize from high "foot traffic" and transferability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun15,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to anticipate the Fed’s forecasts and policy moves and explore where Greer thinks markets are headed next. Greer provides a strategic update on commodities, equities, and the macro picture as well as his thoughts on inflation’s trajectory. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, joins Ed Harrison on Real Vision Live to share his perspective on the true health and trajectory of the Chinese economy. By mainstream measures, China has made a swift recovery from the shock of COVID—but not everyone is willing to trust this data. Leland Miller has made it his business to dig deeper than the official Chinese data to get a true gauge of what is happening in the world's second-largest economy. Miller and Harrison will break down the discrepancies between China Beige Book's data and the official data, discussing how investors should react to these differences.
Recorded on Mar 3 , 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-June14,2021:Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Ed Harrison, managing editor at Real Vision, to the Daily Briefing to discuss the market’s reaction to last week’s CPI print as well as Bitcoin’s rebound. The pair will analyze the fall in bond yields and stock market growth as investors anticipate the FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and continued dovish FED policies. Additionally, they will examine Bitcoin’s recent reversal as Paul Tudor Jones and Elon Musk publicly state their support. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Jason Buck of the Mutiny Fund welcomes Mebane Faber, co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investments, for an in-depth conversation on the methods diligent investors can use to build and maintain wealth in all market environments. Faber breaks down his rigorous quantitative models to share fresh insights on bonds, equities, real estate, and commodities as well as the role these assets play within a portfolio. Faber and Buck discuss the importance of negatively correlated assets such as put options, which are a key feature of the Cambria Tail Risk ETF ($TAIL). Key learnings: Equity valuations are stretched thin, but buying at all-time highs has historically yielded surprisingly good returns. Faber thinks non-U.S. stocks are underrepresented in the typical U.S. portfolio and argues that for most individual investors, steady contributions to their portfolio matter much more than eking out that extra percentage of return. Recorded on 14 April 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Danny Moses, founder of Moses Ventures, joins Mike Green for a conversation on how to make sense of a market characterized by surging equity valuations and ultra-tight credit spreads that is nevertheless prone to gamma squeezes, forced liquidations, and the implosion of billion dollar funds. Moses, an investor profiled in the "The Big Short," compares the current boom to the bubble the predated the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and concludes that the unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus are pushing investors further and further out on the risk curve. Green details the role of passive investing, and the two discuss the blow-ups of Greensill and Archegos. Lastly, Moses shares his insights on the cannabis sector as well as the prospect of rising inflation. Recorded on April 7, 2021. Key learnings: Risk-taking in today's market is nearing its apogee; nevertheless, Moses sees extremely promising opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. Moses stresses the importance of doing one's own research and argues that skepticism is a key for any successful investor, particularly in today's environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun11,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to the Daily Briefing to discuss the changes in the macro policy paradigm globally. Pal will be analyzing the impact these shifts will have economically, whether global macro investments can still perform in light of these shifts, and whether crypto ultimately benefits in the aftermath. He will also be unveiling the legendary headline guest at the upcoming Festival of Learning (June 23-25). Don't have your ticket yet? You can get it through this link: http://realvision.com/festival-of-learning-2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB- Jun9,2021: Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how he is gauging market sentiment before tomorrow’s momentous release of key inflation data. The average estimate for the yearly change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 4.7%, and Dillian argues that if a figure comes with a “3-handle,” we could see some fireworks in the market. Dillian also shares his views on other pockets of the market he has his eye on such as Bitcoin and uranium. For tickets to the Festival of Learning, click here: realvision.com/festival. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Darius Sit and Joshua Ho, co-founders of QCP Capital, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Asia's crypto demand, how it differs from the West, and the future of those markets. Sit explains that almost no one in China uses physical dollars any more and that the existing, widespread usage of digital payments paves way for a smooth transition into the adoption of crypto payments. Ho mentions that this isn't just specific to Asia—all countries with a remittance corridor are likely to find utility and value from adopting crypto payments systems, which allow them to bypass the high intracountry remittance costs. They both believe that corporations are almost ready to begin allocating capital to the crypto space, but they are now looking for the most appropriate products to allocate to as crypto seems to have now been broadly accepted and legitimized. Recorded on March 23, 2021. Key Learnings: China already has a strong digital-first culture and will likely be able to pivot to crypto payments much faster than other places. Remittances seem to be the most important factor in the usage of crypto in Asia and elsewhere as it allows them to bypass high fees when sending money to friends and family in different jurisdictions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-June8,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Thomas Thornton to discuss the inflation debate ahead of the US CPI number to be released Thursday and the bullish sentiment present in markets. The pair examines the effect of Bitcoin’s illegal use and confiscation on the downturn that the asset has recently experienced. In addition, they look to make sense of meme stock mania as Wendy’s and Clover Health stocks explode higher. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-June7,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington sit down together on the Daily Briefing to provide their insights into today’s market price action and share their experience at the Miami Bitcoin conference from this past weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
RV Live replay: Paul Hodges of The pH Report and New Normal Consulting returns to Real Vision to update viewers on the health of the global economy and what that means for financial markets. Hodges and his team see big changes on the horizon and, through their analysis of the chemical industry, auto market, and technology sector, see a return to the "old normal" as being highly unlikely. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Hodges highlights the important data leading him to believe that post-COVID the world will look very different as demand patterns shift, reshoring continues, and momentum for "the green recovery" grows. An excerpt from the most recent edition of The pH Report looking at the auto market can be found here: https://www.realvision.com/issues/auto-markets-shaken-by-covid-and-evs. To access Hodges' charts, please use this link: https://rvtv.io/3bvZXqA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Danish-born economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, a data and analytics firm for institutional investors that specializes in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy, joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal for a deep-dive conversation on the global economic outlook; the impact of the vaccine rollout on the U.S., Europe and emerging markets; and the likelihood of multi-year fiscal stimulus. Nordvig sees monetary policy frameworks evolving in ways that are unfriendly toward bonds, like Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), causing a fundamental rethinking among investors for owning fixed income assets. Recorded April 7, 2020. Key Learnings: A multi-decade bull market in fixed income lasted longer than many expected due to negative interest rate policy, and the COVID shock made central banks across the globe max out monetary policy. Interest rates are currently unattractive to many kinds of investors, and the economic outlook is such that risk assets look attractive, including cryptocurrency. Follow @jnordvig @ExanteData. Visit Exante Data (https://www.exantedata.com/). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun3,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura guide viewers through a topsy-turvy day of price action where U.S. stocks and bonds sell off together as the “BANG” meme stocks (Blackberry, AMC, Nokia, and GameStop) pare some of yesterday’s gains. They also roll a pre-recorded segment of Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and crypto editor Ash Bennington, who reports from Miami’s 2021 Bitcoin conference. Farley and Nakamura close by reviewing the Fed’s decision to sell its holdings of corporate bonds and analyzing what the potential knock-on effects would be if the Turkish Lira were to continue to deteriorate. To read more of Weston's thoughts on the relationship of Bitcoin, gold, and the Turkish Lira, click here: https://rvtv.io/BTCLiraGoldEXCH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jun2,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura cover the resurgence of “meme stocks” such as AMC Entertainment Holdings ($AMC) and Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY). They analyze the seemingly inexorable rise of commodities like oil as well as growth stocks such as Tesla Inc ($TSLA) that may be struggling to regain their footing. Nakamura also looks at the surge in Dogecoin and the halt of once-hot investments such as SPACs and NFTs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Darius Sit and Joshua Ho, co-founders of QCP Capital, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Asia's crypto demand, how it differs from the West, and the future of those markets. Sit explains that almost no one in China uses physical dollars any more and that the existing, widespread usage of digital payments paves way for a smooth transition into the adoption of crypto payments. Ho mentions that this isn't just specific to Asia—all countries with a remittance corridor are likely to find utility and value from adopting crypto payments systems, which allow them to bypass the high intracountry remittance costs. They both believe that corporations are almost ready to begin allocating capital to the crypto space, but they are now looking for the most appropriate products to allocate to as crypto seems to have now been broadly accepted and legitimized. Recorded on March 23, 2021. Key Learnings: China already has a strong digital-first culture and will likely be able to pivot to crypto payments much faster than other places. Remittances seem to be the most important factor in the usage of crypto in Asia and elsewhere as it allows them to bypass high fees when sending money to friends and family in different jurisdictions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Diego Parrilla, portfolio manager at Quadriga Asset Managers and the author of "The Anti-Bubbles," weighs in on the ongoing conversation around bubbles in this interview with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal. Parrilla goes in-depth on where he thinks markets are providing the most opportunity as well as where they're unveiling risks, and he breaks down his unique portfolio management style to navigate the current environment. He also considers whether monetary policy has reached its limits in the midst of unparalleled monetary easing from global central banks. Parrilla and Pal also will be answering questions from the audience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: The Alaska Permanent Fund is the $75 billion sovereign wealth fund of the state of Alaska, and since oil was discovered in Alaska in the 1970s, the APF has been receiving royalties and investing that capital on behalf of Alaskan citizens. Every year, it pays out a dividend—a form of UBI—to the citizens, who also do not pay any state income tax. In this interview with Sean Fieler, president and CIO of Equinox Partners, Marcus Frampton, CIO of the APF, explains his own unconventional views on investing and how he is bucking the trend in the large institutional investor space. Together, they discuss why Frampton has allocated the APF in gold, active management, and macro hedge funds while resisting the urge to chase private equity like many of his peers. They also discuss Frampton's personal investing style and why he is so attracted to micro-cap stocks and OTC markets. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Key Learnings: Institutional investors, who are the major forces in global markets, are largely driven by the actuarial projections of consultants and, with a few exceptions like Marcus Frampton and the APF, tend to cluster into similar portfolios and assets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB- May28,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss his macro outlook, inflation, and crypto markets. Pal will be sharing his observations of the crypto selloff from last week and taking questions from the audience about his current market thinking. In observance of Memorial Day in the US this coming Monday, May 31st, there will be no Daily Briefing airing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May27,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, back to the Daily Briefing to update viewers on how the bond market is reacting to the re-opening of the economy and the sustained dovishness of the Federal Reserve. Bianco analyzes how the Fed’s bias towards employment within its dual mandate is impacting inflation expectations and bond yields, and he and Harrison discuss today’s jobless claims within that context as well as ballooning budget deficits and central bank balance sheet expansion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May26,2021: Jared Dillian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update viewers on his inflation thesis and the re-opening trade. He tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley why he thinks the re-opening might already be fully priced in and shares advice to investors on how to manage their risk in stocks, bonds, gold – as well as Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Brad Mills, host of Magic Internet Money Podcast and partner at Xsquared Ventures, joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss everything Bitcoin—from the Block Size Debate in 2017 to the philosophical vs investment reasons for owning Bitcoin and misinformation around the Bitcoin narrative, this interview covers it all. Mills explains that while Bitcoin Maximalists have been around as early as 2014 during the first alt season, the community was more harmonious as there was an understanding that Bitcoin was going to be the winner and what everyone was striving for. Altcoins were instead seen as experiments that one could mine, sell, or trade for more bitcoins. Come 2017, there had been a shift in mentality where many VCs were simply trying to redo Bitcoin. Mills goes on to explain that the ICO boom triggered a reaction, causing "Toxic Bitcoin Maximalism," a response to those falsely aligning with Bitcoin while trying to shill their subscriptions and exchanges or capture volume on their stable coins or altcoins. Recorded on April 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Fundamentally, the view of original Bitcoiners is that they do not want Bitcoin to be taken over or influenced by corporations in a way that is not in consensus with the node runners and developers of the network. In the eyes of these Bitcoiners, if corporations set the rules of Bitcoin because they have all the money, what precedent is set for governments? Further, the core tenant of Bitcoiners is that decentralization is most important and must be retained above everything else—even price and adoption. Mills goes on to state that the most important thing Satoshi did when inventing Bitcoin is that you could have consensus achieved on a ledger in a way that no government could shut down. Censorship resistance is the most important thing to any blockchain, and if there is no resistance, it should not be a considered a blockchain. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May25,2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to sharing his latest insights on market activity as U.S. consumer confidence falls slightly for May and questions about inflation’s permanence still linger. Thornton considers the implications of the repo market displaying surging levels of reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs) and explains what indicators he’s paying attention to and what that means for markets going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB- May24,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s most important market-moving stories—from China’s clampdown on commodity speculation and Bitcoin mining to the supply chain bottlenecks that may at last spur durable capex investment from companies in order to meet demand. Harrison and Farley cover the day’s price action in which global equities drift higher alongside commodities such as gold and crude oil as well as the crypto volatility, which did not abate over the weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Here at Real Vision, we are exploring the question, "Is Everything a Bubble?" To many investors though, that question doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of what needs to be considered in the current environment. In this live interview, Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss his position on what he thinks are the biggest questions facing investors today. Together, Gurevich and Pal will explore the future of risk-parity, the raging overvaluation debate and the role of interest rate momentum in equities, and the dichotomies in outcomes surrounding the dollar, precious metals, and interest rates. In addition, Gurevich will weigh in on the current discussion de jour around short-selling, how investors should think about navigating crisis vs. being positioned for the long-term, and why many are confusing features for bugs in the gold vs. bitcoin debate. Recorded on : 8 Feb 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May21,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to make sense of an action-packed week. They interpret the bullish PMIs coming from Europe and the U.S., the latest news from the credit markets, and a crypto market trying to regain its footing. They also discuss what the new electric Ford F-150 means for electric vehicle companies, and how the brewing tensions between China and Taiwan might impact financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May20,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison to tackle the Treasury’s call for crypto transfers equaling $10,000 and above to be begin being reported to the IRS. Ed discusses his thoughts about how the reflation trade has buoyed the most speculative areas of the market, crypto being included, due to the underperformance of real economic data, and he and Ash discuss the implications that the Treasury’s announcement will have on crypto going forward and what that means for the broader market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May19, 2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura host the Daily Briefing on this action-packed day where almost every asset class seemed to plummet: stocks, commodities, and, most dramatically, crypto. In an emergency dispatch with senior editor Ash Bennington, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal helps viewers make sense of a crypto market undergoing tremendous volatility, including its sudden drop and then vibrant rebound. Farley and Nakamura close by analyzing the bond market and the surge of a trend that Nakamura calls “subprime retail.” Join the Exponential Age now and watch it all for $1 right here: https://www.realvision.com/l/the-exponential-age Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May18,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro for a live Daily Briefing to analyze the tape and provide an update on his thoughts concerning the direction of inflation and the commodities trade. Greer touches on metals and mining as well as oil and discusses how likely it will be that inflation will become transitory based on last week’s CPI print. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Warren Irwin, president and CIO of Rosseau Asset Management and one of the most successful natural resources investors of the past few decades, joins Real Vision’s Max Wiethe to discuss why he is investing in uranium, copper, nickel, and metallurgical coal producers as his bet on the green energy trend. Irwin argues that nuclear power will be a necessity to hit emissions targets and the idea that renewables like wind and solar could be relied upon to power humanity is ludicrous as that would require an inconceivable number of batteries. Although he is still bullish on batteries and the electrification trend, he argues that current favorites like lithium and cobalt are respectively too abundant and likely to be phased out of future iterations of battery technology, and he prefers copper, nickel, and metallurgical coal to play this trend. Irwin also highlights some individual companies he is looking at and touches on why he is currently underweight gold and generally against investing in silver. For our listeners :
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The Interview: Even with birthrates slowing and rapid aging in the developed world, years like 2021 where deaths outpace new births are a huge demographic outlier. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Neil Howe, author and managing director of demographics at Hedgeye, helps viewers make sense of the outsized impact that events like this can have on demographic trends. Howe and Harrison also go further than the demographics to examine how this has impacted different generations and the key players in the Fourth Turning saga. Specifically, they examine trends around migration, housing, commercial real estate, COVID variant risk, and political polarization. Recorded on March 23, 2021. Key Learnings:
As well as accelerating and altering the trajectory of many societal trends around urbanization, housing, and migration, the pandemic has altered the entire demographic trajectory of the developed world.
Although these consequences will take time to become measurable, investors need to be aware of the effects this can have going forward on the economy and the fabric of society.
For our listeners :
Join Arca's 4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.
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The. Interview: It’s no secret that crypto has gone from a retail phenomenon to something increasingly embraced by institutions and professional investors. As well, the size of the market has gotten to a point that governments in the West and the East can no longer ignore it. In this interview with Kyle Bass, founder and CIO of Hayman Capital, Peter Smith, CEO and co-founder of Blockchain.com, discusses how governments in the West and East will approach regulation of crypto markets and how the world of private cryptos and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will interact rather than compete. They also discuss how Smith has built his firm accordingly and why he looks at Blockchain as more like the JP Morgan of crypto than something entirely retail-focused like TD Ameritrade. Finally, they touch on Smith's personal asset allocation, his predictions for crypto markets over the next year, and his own questions on Bass' outlook for inflation in 2021. Recorded on March 10, 2021. Key Learnings: Private cryptos and CBDCs will interact rather than compete—but that does not mean all cryptos will survive. Crypto is increasingly competing with traditional finance in areas of "high finance," and the next wave of adoption will take place here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May15,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, to review the first week of the campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Ed and Raoul explore how the past week’s interviews have either reinforced or dispelled Raoul’s macro thinking as well as what surprised him most. Raoul will also providing his insight into the sell-off in tech after the past four weeks of seeing the Nasdaq in the red. Join the Exponential Age now and watch it all for $1 right here: https://www.realvision.com/l/the-exponential-age Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May13,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to contextualize yesterday’s sell-off and whether it is indicative of longer-term market troubles. Thornton will update his thinking concerning what sectors he has his eye on and how he’s positioning his trades since a full re-opening in the U.S. is almost here. For our Listeners :
Join Arca's 4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.
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DB- May13,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss the huge inflationary print that is roiling equity markets.
For our Listeners :
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DB-May11,2021: Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to provide an update on the markets as U.S. equities continued their decline this morning as inflation pressure looms large on the horizon. As the U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rates reaches a 15-year high, Floyd will be sharing his perspective on the inflation narrative that has been roiling markets this year, what currency pairs he has his eye on, and what’s going on in S&P futures.
For Our Listeners:
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DB- May10,2025 - On today’s live edition of the Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Kyla Scanlon, investment partner at On Deck and financial content creator, for a conversation on the most important market stories driving markets, including Amazon’s eight-part bond issue, the NASDAQ’s slump, hacking of the Colonial fuel pipeline, and the launching of the Shiba Inu token (SHIB). Scanlon shares with Farley her analysis on today’s pullback in investment grade bond ETF $LQD, Beyond Meat’s earnings ($BYND), as well as the latest news on GameStop Corp ($GME). For our Listeners :
Join Arca's 4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.
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The Interview: Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, and Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, sit down with Real Vision's king of neutrality, Ash Bennington, for a debate on the merits of MMT vs Austrian Economics, other questions around what the defining characteristics of good money actually are, and whether we will finally see the inflation that many have been calling for. Schiff and Green will also discuss their outlooks for various asset classes given their differing views on inflation, monetary policy, and the role of government. Recorded on April 22, 2021 For our Listeners :
Join Arca's 4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.
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The Interview: Narratives around the reflation trade and asset prices are currently pointing towards a full recovery and a period of extended growth as the world exits lockdowns. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Daniel Lacalle, chief economist and CIO at Tressis, argues that this is being fueled by nothing more than hope and that, although this is a recovery, the world will return to the same state of secular stagnation and low growth that existed pre-COVID. Lacalle explains why fiscal and monetary policies, which have not generated inflation, will only make this situation worse, why he thinks there is only a few months left in the reflation trade, and the resulting asset allocation based on his outlook. They also discuss current pockets of value and the sectors that Lacalle considers to be value traps like energy and financials as well as Lacalle’s outlook for the dollar. Recorded on March 10, 2021. Key Learnings:
Sectors like energy and financials, which have been benefiting from reflation narratives and trade at low multiples, should not be considered "value".
Current negative views on the US and the dollar remind Lacalle of the GFC, but the reality is that the US and the dollar are still the cleanest dirty shirt.
For our Listeners :
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The Interview: Even before COVID, global deficits had already expanded—but in the last year, they have exploded to levels that almost guarantee increases in taxes. We can already see the effects as high-net-worth individuals and businesses leave high tax areas like California for lower tax areas like Florida, Texas, and the Cayman Islands. Dominic Frisby, author of "Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future," sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss the history of taxes, sinister invisible taxes in the form of targeted inflation and monetary debasement, and the future of taxes considering the trends outlined above. Pal and Frisby also discuss the inevitability and virtues of some level of tax and cooperation and the potential for better tax structures to emerge from this crisis. Recorded on March 2, 2021. Key Learnings:
Increased taxes, new taxes, and monetary debasement are almost an inevitability considering massive global deficits post-COVID.
Immigration and migration patterns have already emerged, and geographies that recognize these trends and adjust their taxation and monetary system in a fair way will attract both human and traditional capital.
For our Listeners :
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DB-May7,2021: Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to introduce Real Vision’s latest campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Raoul will be going in-depth on his new macro framework, the Exponential Age, and he and Ed tease their interview that’s being released on Monday. They also contextualize today’s U.S. jobs report, which fell far from economists’ expectations, and Raoul explains what the Exponential Age means for employment going forward. For our Listeners:
Join Arca's 4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.
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DB-May6,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley evaluate price action in markets as the bond market refuses to budge, some chaos in single stocks today has been hidden by relatively flat U.S. equity indexes, and gold is breaking out of its range, surging beyond $1800. Ed also takes an in-depth look at today's economic data on initial and continuing jobless claims as well as the latest news flow on companies' struggles to hire workers even as unemployment rate remains in elevated territory. Jack reports from the trenches of the over-the-counter interest rate swaps market and speculates on what it indicates about investors' trust in the Fed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Crypto Wednesday: Michael Krieger, creator of Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to discuss their discovery of Bitcoin, the subculture, and the probability of a government shutdown. Krieger describes Bitcoin as a representation of a path or blueprint for humanity to follow: not just with money, but with nearly everything. They note that Bitcoin is decentralized, permissionless, and open-source, and that these three qualities are key to Bitcoin's success. Krieger also believes that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming more political, and he notes that the only 2 major political movements in this day and age are localism and Bitcoin. Recorded on March 18, 2021. Key Learnings:
Krieger and Johnson believe that, although the current US infrastructure is still strong, citizens are looking to shift to more free and open sources in both their digital and physical lives.
They believe that Bitcoin is better than any country's digital reserve currency because of its decentralized and open source nature.
In their view the entire social, political, and economic organization of humans is being disrupted by Bitcoin.
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DB-May4,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statement today on interest rates, Bank of America’s warning of transitory hyperinflation, and Q1 earnings. Greer shares his perspective on Yellen’s assertion on the possible need to raise interest rates and how it impacted markets today, and he and Bennington speculate on whether the Fed will change course later in the year. Greer also considers the trajectory of inflation in light of Bank of America’s statement about transitory hyperinflation to come and explores why he feels this time is different for price inflation. Finally, Bennington and Greer touch on Q1 earnings and Dogecoin’s meteoric rise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-May3,2021: Real Vision managing Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s market action in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Farley interprets Warren Buffett’s latest comments at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders’ meeting, and he and Harrison discuss Buffett’s statements on inflation and equity performance as well as the announcement of Buffett’s successor. Harrison evaluates recent moves in the bond market and shares his views on whether currencies or interest rates will be the “release valve” for volatility as equities grind higher. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Luke Gromen, founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes the strength or weakness of the dollar cannot be left to market forces. Gromen argues that, if left to market forces, the sheer size of the U.S. Government deficit would crowd out global dollar markets, sending the dollar skyrocketing with devastating consequences for global markets. Paired with recent rhetoric from Janet Yellen about not seeking a weak dollar has shaken Gromen's conviction in near-term dollar weakness and the subsequent knock-on effects. Gromen and Harrison will also discuss Gromen's views on the Treasury market and why he thinks rates will be allowed to rise until something cracks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: With bonds selling off alongside equities and the volatility of both asset classes rising, there is perhaps no better time to hear from The Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman. In this interview with Logica Capital Advisors partner, chief strategist, and PM Mike Green, Bassman outlines his view that this move higher in rates is the bond market finally moving towards the "right" price after a decade of interest rate suppression. Green and Bassman discuss the positive and negative consequences of higher rates, a steeper yield curve, and monetary and fiscal policies like negative interest rates and stimulus checks. They also touch on the current opportunities that Bassman sees and his prediction of inflationary impulse due to demographics sometime between 2023 and 2025. Harley Bassman has provided a slide deck to accompany this interview which can be found here: https://rvtv.io/3cai4CR and his commentary on convexity can be found here: https://rvtv.io/38eiXZS. Recorded on March 3, 2021. Key Learnings:
Bassman believes interest rates have been kept artificially low, and the current sell-off in bonds is the market moving towards the "right" price.
He also advocates for investors to be long convexity and believes that OTM calls on equities and long-dated options on interest rates are extremely cheap.
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The. Interview: Legendary independent investor Jim Rogers joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to share his outlook on markets and the lessons he learned on his storied career. Rogers tells Pal that this current market environment, marked by record-low mutual fund cash levels and high levels of investing on margin, reminds him somewhat of the conditions prior to the "Black Monday" sell-off on October 19, 1987, which actually occurred on Rogers’ birthday. Rogers stresses the importance of thinking for oneself and argues that China is well-positioned to be the future engine of economic growth and technological progress. Recorded on February 23, 2021. Key learnings:
Rogers is very constructive on commodities such as silver, oil, sugar, and various other agricultural opportunities.
He notes speculative fervor in the current market, particularly in SPACs, but sees opportunities in China and Russia in addition to commodities.
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DB-Apr30,2021: Real Vision crypto editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a crazy week in markets in this live edition of the Daily Briefing. Alongside Real Vision’s Jack Farley, they examine how the momentous earnings announcements, particularly in big tech, impact valuations. Ash gives his take on the latest goings-on in the crypto world, and Ed and Jack review what rising yields on European bonds means for the continents recovery as well as the U.S. dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr29,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura break down an action-packed day of earnings, economic data, and price movement. Farley shares updates on Amazon’s eye-popping earnings and the U.S. GDP growth figure of 6.4% (measured by annualized quarter-over-quarter change), and Nakamura makes sense of the equity market reaction to the seemingly rosy news coming from the economy as well as companies. They put in context the seemingly unstoppable surge in commodities such as lumber, oil, copper, and palladium with Nakamura providing key insight on declining volumes in the latter two commodities. He also looks at the bond market through the lens of the Japanese investor, somewhat attributing today’s sell-off in U.S. Treasurys to the Japanese holiday of “Golden Week.” Lastly, Nakamura looks at how the Japanese Stock Monex Group (8698 JT) is trading as a proxy to Bitcoin. To hear Nakamura’s full thoughts on Monex, check out today’s “Real Vision Daily Briefing Afterhours” on the Real Vision Exchange: rvtv.io/ExchAfterHours430. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr28,2021:Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to discuss his takeaways from today’s FOMC meeting. He expresses his concerns about Powell’s assessment of intensifying inflationary pressures as being only transitory and anticipates the bond market continuing to tighten over the next few months. Harrison and Boockvar then analyze the possibility of a fiscal cliff to come in the next year and the potential impact of tax increases on the economy as well as Boockvar’s perspective on the global economic recovery, the dollar, and how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday:: Abra CEO Bill Barhydt joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Abra, the future role of banks, and security. Barhydt describes Abra as moving towards the vision of being a full bank for cryptocurrency as it offers trading and investing in over a hundred crypto assets as well as the option to earn interest and borrow against them. Barhydt does not believe traditional banks will have a value proposition over the next 25 years and suggests that many of them will either become crypto-centric or disappear. He explains that Abra provides the full spectrum of security needs for their customers, covering "cold, warm, and hot" custody solutions. This means that Abra provides custody solutions for short term active trading (hot) and for long term storage of assets (cold) and everything in between. Recorded on March 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Abra aims to become a full bank for crypto assets. Barhydt believes most banks will become crypto-centric or die out, and Abra provides the full spectrum of custody services for their wide range of customers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr27,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss his current take on markets. Thornton explains the thin trading volume for this past month as sentiment remains high, and he explores Goldman Sachs’ newly published economic forecast, which cautions that there will be quarter-over-quarter GDP declines going forward even while the U.S. economic backdrop grows stronger. Bennington and Thornton also debrief Coinbase’s direct listing and his perspective on the growth of the crypto space, and they tackle Thornton’s thoughts on the Chinese tech sector and where he sees investible opportunities. Finally, he talks about energy as one of the best reopening bets out there and shares how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr26,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the great tax debate happening in the US, infrastructure, and privacy. Ed and Ash touch on earnings as well as the current momentum in markets, and Ed explains why he sees the potential for consolidation or an absolute pullback down the line when assessing the level of heightened bullish sentiment. As the US focuses its attention toward the reopening, Ed and Ash also consider the future of deficit spending, examining Biden’s infrastructure bill and the potential capital gains tax hike. They then turn their attention to Google’s and Apple’s privacy initiatives and what sort of implications this has for the tech sector going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss whether inflation or reflation is on the horizon and how either would impact risk asset prices in 2021. Bianco explains that markets often react to the start of the nominal growth cycle similarly—whether inflation or reflation is occurring—as it's difficult to distinguish which phenomenon is leading economic growth. Even as the consensus is reflation, Bianco expresses his concern over inflation posing an issue. He also reflects on why the valuations of non-profitable tech stocks have risen so rapidly and expounds on how this is in part due to a significant shift in the investors’ preferences for trading in individual names. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the MIT Security Studies Program, sits down with his long-time friend Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors to discuss a multitude of factors affecting China's strategic objectives. Although they examine certain aspects like demographics and the trajectory of growth for China's military, the focus of the interview is on geography and how China’s large number of land borders and their perception of being blocked off from the Pacific Ocean by U.S. military presence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines makes the "first island chain" a potential flashpoint for conflict. Green and Fravel also discuss Green's hypothesis that Vladimir Putin and the Russians are the deftest participants in the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia. Recorded on February 25, 2021. Key Learnings: It wasn't too long ago that trade deal headlines were whipsawing markets back and forth. The outcome for U.S.-China relations is not set in stone, and investors need to be aware of the risks and opportunities presented by this conflict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Nick Kokonas, founder and CEO of Tock, joins Jason Buck, co-founder and CIO of The Mutiny Fund, to share the lessons he has learned on his path from a derivatives trader, to a restauranter, and to a technologist and fine dining innovator. Kokonas recounts his beginnings in finance in Chicago's trading pits, where he witnessed firsthand the perils of selling tail-risk, or extremely out-of-the-money options. Kokonas and Buck exchange outlooks on options trading and "the Greeks," before Buck prompts Kokonas to share how he founded restaurants such as Trio, Roister, and Alinea (the only restaurant in all of Chicago to retain three Michelin stars). Kokonas shares how identifying and solving the multitude of problems that befall the restaurant industry let him to create Tock. Recorded on March 19, 2021. Key learnings: Most restaurants waste a tremendous amount of time and money, and Kokonas uses the skills he gained as an options trader to spot inefficiencies and innovate in common practices such as dropping checks, making reservations, and ordering ingredients. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr,23-2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a live talk on the biggest market-moving stories as the week comes to a close. Harrison covers credit and shares additional thoughts on “The Great Biden Tax Grab.” Bennington makes sense of today’s economic data and takes a look at the cooling-off of crypto prices as well as the widening spread between the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and its net asset value. Farley looks at price action in commodities such as lumber, oil, as well as the recent shocking news from Kimberly Clark that the bull market in toilet paper could be over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr23,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley tackle the whispers of a capital gains tax hike on America’s wealthiest investors, which triggered a midday sell-off in U.S. equities. Harrison analyzes the progress of global vaccination efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19 and argues why he believes the “fourth wave” of COVID-19 in the U.S. is very unlikely to destabilize the economy. Harrison shares with Farley how he sees industries evolving their businesses in a world that is fully re-opened yet still wracked by infection risk, something he terms “the new normal.” This conversation leads to Farley’s analysis of the earnings reports of Southwest Airlines Co ($LUV) and American Airlines Group ($AAL). Lastly, Farley and Harrison take a brief detour into Dogecoin as well as commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr20,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision crypto editor Ash Bennington to update his thesis on commodities and interest rates as the U.S. economy continues to roar. Greer makes sense of a surging equity market that backed off today and argues that commodities will continue to perform in a “liquidity parade” set by a combination of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Greer analyzes falling yields and a falling dollar and connects the rise in financing costs to the slump in cannabis equities. Greer covers the resurgent bull markets in grain, iron ore, and oil, contending that monetary authorities are pouring “kerosene” on these assets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr19,2021: In the first segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and Jack Farley investigate the challenges the Federal Reserve faces as speculative fervor reaches a fever pitch in Dogecoin as well as the ultimate fate of the yield curve. Harrison and Farley look how Fed Funds futures indicate the implied probability of the future Fed Funds rate and explore whether the holding pattern in bonds can continue and where yields will go if they go back on the march. In the final segment, Farley speaks to Deep Knowledge Investing's Gary Brode, who shares his analysis of stocks such as Enova International Inc ($ENVA) and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co ($HMHC). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: In the wake of interviews with Jeremy Grantham and his recent heir apparent Ben Inker, managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes a third member of GMO, portfolio manager Matt Kadnar, to Real Vision. Kadnar shares with Harrison his approach to asset allocation and risk management at this unique market juncture. Kadnar thinks a cyclical bout of inflation could be due, but is skeptical that a 1970s-era level of secular inflation will linger for long since these serious periods of inflation are caused by a wage price spiral and unemployment remains high. Kadnar argues that if the market prices in more inflation, interest rates will continue to rise, and this will likely cause high-flying growth stocks to return to the ground. This is in line with Kadnar's investment framework, which as he describes to Harrison is dependent on mean reversion in the long-run. Kadnar is not a believer in gold but notes that if real rates become sufficiently negative, gold begins to make more sense within a portfolio. Recorded on February 23, 2021. Key learnings: Kadnar believes that value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks over the long-run. He argues that Treasury bonds do not offer the same protection from equity drawdowns that they once did, and as such, he is constructive on asset backed-securities to play this role. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at L2 Capital Partners, for a deep-dive on Uranium both as an energy source as well as an asset class. A former engineer, Lopez has built a model mapping every Uranium mine on earth and shares with Alden why he thinks supply will be constrained for years to come. Alden highlights the key role nuclear power will play in the global transition away from fossil fuels, particularly in countries like India, where three quarters of all energy is produced from coal. Lopez insists that, in the world of ETFs, $URNM is a much better alternative than $URA, but notes that active research and security selection will yield the best results. Lastly, Alden and Lopez comment on the uncorrelated nature of Uranium to other macro cycles and how this is beneficial within a portfolio. Recorded on February 22, 2021. Key learnings:
Lopez argues that Uranium offers the most asymmetric trade he has ever seen in his lifetime.
The market cap of all Uranium equities amounts to roughly $20 Billion dollars, Lopez notes, so an investor can buy all of a key power source for about 1/35th the valuation of Tesla.
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DB-Apr16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal to discuss his Expert View, “The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise,” released today. Ash and Raoul will be contextualizing this piece for macro investors and more.
Please visit this link to watch the video just by adding your email address. The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise, Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr15,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss the newest release in the weekly jobless claims data, comparing the vaccine roll-out in the U.S. to other countries, and how we are on the precipice of inflation. Bianco points out how, even though jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, the question of job growth is trickier to address as enhanced benefits seem to be deterring people from seeking out work. He also considers how the level of COVID-19 infections and the pace of vaccine roll-outs both differ between the U.S., Europe, and Asia, which means that globally, the reopening is much further away. Bianco and Harrison also address how supply chain disruptions may feed into inflationary pressures, how new methodology may have an impact on CPI metrics, earnings expectations for this year, and Bianco’s thoughts on the trajectory of the bond market and rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr14,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, to make sense of the release of earnings from big banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Whalen explains why the eye-popping net income figures, which exceeded expectations, are largely due to booking released loan loss reserves as profits as well as trading revenues, which may not be sustainable. Whalen argues that quantitative easing has reduced banks’ earnings power by compressing their net income margins. Lastly, he and Farley discuss the ongoing role of the Federal Reserve as well as today’s direct listing of Coinbase. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Arca CIO Jeff Dorman, Pantera Capital co-CIO Joey Krug, and BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul join Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss their three favorite sectors in crypto, portfolio construction outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and how they view DeFi. Each of the guests describe what decentralized finance means to them, touching on the risks of investing outside of the top two coins by market capitalization. They explain their thoughts on some of the current emerging crypto sectors such as NFTs. Recorded on February 18, 2021. Key Learnings:
The crypto space is still young, and there are many new projects popping up all of the time.
Investors should be very cautious about investing into newer projects in the space as smaller market cap projects tend to be increasingly risky with smaller size.
For those that are interested in investigating further out the risk curve, DeFi and NFTs are the sectors most commonly mentioned in these discussions.
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DB-April13,2021: Imran Lakha of Options Insight joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to make sense of a market that is becoming calmer day-by-day as measured by implied as well as historical volatility. They discuss the halting of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine distribution as well the release of the latest data on the Consumer Price Index, which, at a yearly change 2.6%, exceeded economist expectations of 2.5%. Lakha defines key terms and shares the mechanics of key options strategies such as collars (also known as “risk reversals” or “risk-ies”), straddles, and stock replacement. Lastly, Lakha shares tales from the burgeoning world of crypto derivatives, describing the rare “call skew” in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and explains why he, a two-decade veteran of the volatility markets, sees it as a tremendous opportunity. Lakha can be found on Twitter @options_insight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr12,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley prepare viewers for a huge week in markets, giving insight on the series of major investment banks set to release their earnings later this week as well as the pivotal disclosure of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Farley explains why “base effects” are so important, and Wiethe breaks down the inflation readings into their components, using insights from his upcoming interview with oil analyst Warren Pies. Lastly, Farley and Wiethe take a chart-heavy look at everything from Treasury volatility to cannabis stocks to Ecuadorean bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Legendary chartist, Peter Brandt of Factor LLC, returns to Real Vision Live to run through his 2021 outlook for a handful of assets based on their technical setups. Together with Real Vision's Max Wiethe, Brandt will analyze the setups in US, Japanese, and Chinese equities. In addition to equities Brandt will also examine corn and other agricultural commodities, gold, bitcoin, US Treasurys, and currencies. Brandt will also take questions from the audience and provide his macro perspective after decades of successful trading. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes Felix Zulauf, legendary investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, to share his thoughts on the interplay of interest rates, equities, and inflation as well as share his macro outlook as debt and demographics reshape the future of economic growth. Zulauf believes that the current macro setting of rising yields and a falling dollar mirror the conditions prior to the 1987 equity crash, commonly known as Black Monday, which wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equity valuation overnight. Zulauf sees this correction not as a disaster scenario but merely a detour to another leg higher. Zulauf remains constructive on equities, at least in the long-term, due to his belief that central banks are dedicated to propping up risk assets like never before since a decline in risk assets by 10% would roughly correspond to a loss in 1% of GDP growth. Recorded on February 11, 2021. Key learnings:
Zulauf sees a possibility of a 10-15% correction in the near-term as rising yields trigger investment models to cut back risk.
He thinks rising yields will make for a bleak 2021 for gold although he is constructive on the precious metal in 2022 and beyond.
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The Interview: What are SPACs? What role do they play in the current investment landscape? What opportunities do they offer investors? And, perhaps most importantly, are they in a bubble? Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer these questions and more. Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the growth areas of the future—from online gaming and e-sports to electric vehicles and space exploration—and that SPACs present the path forward for early-stage companies to go public. Yusko traces the different stages in the SPAC capital formation process, which includes pre-IPO, private investment in public equity (PIPE), and post-merger, and he depicts the various opportunities they offer investors, noting that many stages offer bond-like risk but equity-like returns. Yusko describes his latest venture, the Morgan Creek and EXOS Launch SPAC Originated ETF, which seeks to deploy active management and long-term holding periods as a way to navigate a promising space that is nevertheless frothy like so many other pockets of the market. Recorded on February 10, 2021. Key learnings:
Yusko explains that SPACs are just a regulatory wrapping—saying that SPACs are in a bubble is like saying hedge funds are in a bubble.
Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the companies of the future and that, due to the dispersion between different SPACs, active management and diversification is the best way for investors to play the space.
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DB-April9,2021: Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a market in flux and share opportunities on his radar. Raoul updates his macro views on the dollar, interest rates, and economic growth before he discusses new developments in the crypto world such as the IPO of Coinbase as well as the U.S. listing of Galaxy Digital. Raoul also shares his latest views on ARK Innovation ETFs as part of his belief in durable secular trends driven by technology that abide by Metcalfe’s Law.
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DB-Apr8,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to share his insights on the inflationary pressures and drawdown risks he’s observing. Boockvar discusses his take on why weekly jobless claims in the U.S. continue to be high while job openings are also at record highs, highlighting how enhanced unemployment benefits may be competing with wages and how this puts inflationary pressure on labor. He also analyzes Jamie Dimon’s statement of the economic boom running all the way into 2023 and points out that another leg up in rates, a potential tapering by the Fed, and the end of large-scale fiscal spending could all prove to upend that notion. Harrison and Boockvar also explore the potential influence that supply chain disruptions could have on earnings, a corporate tax grab under Biden, and the impact of high margin debt on markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB- Apr7,2021: Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how America’s red-hot economy is precipitating wage inflation alongside monetary and fiscal stimulus, worth trillions of dollars, which shows no sign of slowing. Dillian argues that this booming reflationary environment will be hostile to bonds but could lead to a “melt-up” in U.S. equity indexes as value stocks surge and growth stocks remain at hold their own. Lastly, Dillian and Farley cover gold, retail leverage, and the Federal Reserve’s release of its minutes from the FOMC’s meeting in March. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Author, coder, and educator Andreas M. Antonopoulos (aantonop.com) joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Bitcoin, layer 2 solutions, and the Wild West of crypto. Andreas describes Bitcoin as enabling trust across vast distances without coordination—trust without a central authority. He explains that Bitcoin allows you to trust in the system, without needing to trust the other person you are transacting with and without needing to even know who they are. Antonopoulos touches on the difficulty of scaling blockchains, mentioning that its design requires everyone to check everyone else's work in order to remain secure and decentralized. Layer 2 solutions, such as Lightning Network, have been built on top of Bitcoin to help it scale to magnitudes greater transactions per second while still retaining the security and decentralization characteristics. Antonopoulos explains that crypto has enabled innovation of financial services, no longer restricted by gatekeepers, and he observes that the fact that anyone is allowed to innovate without permission, without authorization, and without oversight has created a "Wild West" environment with many “snake oil salesmen." In light of this, he infers that this is why there is significant defensive skepticism regarding Bitcoin vs. other new projects in the space. Recorded on February 18, 2021. Key Learnings:
Bitcoin engenders trust in its system as it does not require trust in a central authority to coordinate transactions, even across considerable distance.
The problem it currently faces is scalability. In order to resolve that without compromise,
Layer 2 solutions help blockchains scale while attempting to retain similar levels of decentralization and security as the base chain.
The permissionless nature of open source blockchains creates an environment ripe for "snake oil salesmen," and this is why many people who understand this have strong defensive skepticism of non-Bitcoin projects.
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DB-April6, 2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss Coinbase, Archegos’s implosion, and the overall state of U.S. equities. After reviewing Coinbase’s earnings, Thornton discusses his bullishness on their upcoming direct listing, a gesture that he considers validating for the crypto space and will become the biggest deal of the year, and he shares his plans to buy in and how he’ll build the trade. Thornton also explores what he’s seeing in U.S. equities such as a FAANGs experiencing a rally and the S&P 500 displaying exhaustion signals as well as daily sentiment reaching 90%. In light of Archegos’s leveraged blow-out last week and its ripple effect on the market, he provides his perspective on what happened and why this is significant. Finally, Bennington and Thornton tackle the rise in Treasury yields and other various catalysts that currently lie dormant such as the vaccine rollout, the reopening of the economy, and the potential problems going forward for the labor market. For Our Listeners: For the special offer for Thornton’s research service, Hedge Fund Telemetry, use coupon code “stonks” here: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/checkout/.
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DB-Apr5,2021: Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital, joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to break down how he thinks the rapidly changing economic and financial landscape is affecting his outlook for fixed-income, equities, and Bitcoin as well as hedge fund strategies such as long/short equities and convertible bond arbitrage. Gayeski argues that rising yields render much of the fixed-income world unattractive but that pockets of opportunity exist in structured credit, which is more immune to interest rate risk. He argues that Bitcoin is attractive to institutional allocators as a way to get exposure to central bank balance sheet expansion and explains why Bitcoin now comprises a double-digit percentage in SkyBridge’s portfolio. Gayeski also shares his views on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth, and interest rates as well as his take on the ongoing rotation from growth stocks into value equities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Jim Chanos recently remarked that we are in a golden age of fraud, highlighting that companies trade unaffected by credible public accusations for years before it finally catches up to them. But even after the house cards collapses, the executives in charge of these companies often go unpunished and shareholders are left holding the bag. In America, this wasn’t always the case. Pulitzer prize winning author and senior reporter and editor at ProPublica, Jesse Eisinger, penned the definitive historical account of this devolution in his book "The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives" and in this first installment of a series of interviews focussed on white-collar crime and its affects on markets with Quinton Mathews, managing member of QKM, the pair reexamine this history to explore how we got from regulatory institutions dishing out multi-year sentences in the Enron scandal to almost no prison time or charges being filed against bank executives in the GFC and the potential actions needed to remedy this broken system. Recorded on October 14, 2020. Key Learnings:
Eisinger and Mathews highlight the hollowing out of the regulatory bodies charged with investigating and prosecuting these crimes and the misaligned incentivizes for ambitious young attorneys as the biggest problems.
They concluded that increased funding for regulators and diversity in hiring of prosecutors are some of the many changes need to improve the system.
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The Interview: David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research Associates, believes that there will be a recovery—but not one nearly as robust as the market is currently pricing in. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Rosenberg argues that this is the result of a freshly increased debt overhang, lingering unemployment, and shifts towards saving and away from spending as a result of the psychological scarring of COVID. Rosenberg also outlines his investment ideas that result from this view, namely long bonds, gold, "utility-like growth", and emerging markets in Asia like China and India. Recorded on February 1, 2020. For Our Listeners:
You can get a free 30-day trial to Rosenberg Research here: https://bit.ly/3pQ4nyB.
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The Interview: If central banks and governments unite to debase their money and depreciate their currency, will the long-awaited inflation finally arrive? And if it does, how can investors position themselves to not only protect their portfolio—but in fact grow their wealth—in this inflationary environment? Russell Napier, preeminent investment strategist, joins Stephen Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet to answer these two critical questions. Napier makes his case for why inflation is indeed on the horizon, discussing everything from rent controls and yield curve capping to credit rationing and pricing power, and then he and Clapham explore the various investments that have a favorable risk/reward profile should Napier's thesis prove correct. Recorded on February 4, 2021 Key learnings: Napier sees favorable opportunities in companies that can secure easy debt financing, value stocks whose pricing power varies with inflation, and countries with low debt-to-GDP ratios such as Singapore.
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DB-Apr2,2021: Real Vision senior and crypto editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley to the Daily Briefing. They discuss the Nonfarm Payrolls data, which significantly exceeded expectations, and interpret what this means for the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. They look at the corresponding sell-off in U.S. Treasurys today and the surge in S&P 500 futures (the U.S. stock market is officially closed). Lastly, they cover the surge in Ethereum and altcoins. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Apr1,2021: Tyler Neville, senior editor at Blockworks, and Real Vision’s Jack Farley briefly look at the S&P 500’s breach beyond 4000 as bond yields retreat and the dollar marches higher. Tyler also interprets recent currency volatility, examining the U.S. dollar’s recent strength against the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Chinese Yuan. Tyler and Jack then turn to the bond market, analyzing how rising yields have taken down an otherwise triumphant credit market. Tyler notes that the 60/40 is severely weakened by ultra-low yields and argues that Bitcoin could be a serious replacement to bonds. Jack and Tyler discuss other assets within crypto such as non-fungible tokens and assets within decentralized finance (DeFi) before taking another look at the Archegos liquidation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar31,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura and Max Wiethe to the Daily Briefing. After briefly analyzing the day’s price action (U.S. equities surged as Treasury yields rose), they analyze the forced liquidation of Archegos Capital. Weston provides insight into the mechanics of the over-the-counter derivatives that were involved in the blow-up as well as big banks such as Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and Credit Suisse that were prime brokerages to Archegos Capital. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Dan Tapiero, founder and managing partner of 10T Holdings, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss some of the crypto investment sectors he is interested in, including blockchain infrastructure, on-ramps, and next generation financial services. Taperio explains his approach to investing in the space and why he is looking to invest in what he considers to be mid-sized, crypto companies worth over 400 million dollars. He explores the benefits of investing into crypto on-ramps such as crypto exchanges and lending and borrowing, pointing out that even when crypto prices are going down, on-ramp type investments still perform. Tapiero believes that investing in blockchain infrastructure, such as bridges from traditional finance to crypto, is a way to get upside exposure to the asset class without necessarily needing to purchase the crypto assets themselves. Recorded on February 17, 2021. Key Learnings:
There are many different ways to approach investing in the crypto space. Tapiero takes the traditional investor approach, primarily investing in businesses rather than holding the crypto assets themselves, and he describes his approach as a "picks and shovels" style investment strategy.
This enables the investor to benefit from exposure to the asset class while also reducing the downside risk that comes with holding the tokens themselves.
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DB-Mar30,2021: What does the leveraged blow-up of Archegos Capital Management mean for risk assets? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer this question and update his outlook on stocks, bonds, housing, the U.S. Dollar, and gold as the bond rout shows little sign of stopping. Tony notes that the forced liquidation of Archegos ceased to impair stocks today—for now, at least—but remains as a potential sign that there is some market danger underneath the hood. Tony cites this as a reason why, on the margin, he is moving somewhat into cash and gold and out of stocks. Tony makes sense of the action in Treasury yields and tells Ash why he thinks the U.S. Dollar has been driving higher, especially against the yen. Tony speculates as to why commodities have proved resilient in the face of this dollar strength, which is normally a headwind. Lastly, Ash tells Tony about his evolving journey in the crypto world from a fan’s creation of Ash’s very own non-fungible token (NFT) to Ash’s experience buying Ethereum for the first time. For our Listeners :
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Real Vision Crypto: Mike Belshe, co-founder and CEO of Bitgo, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss Bitgo, tokenization, and the DeFi markets. Belshe describes Bitgo as a security and technology company, acting as custodian for approximately 18 blockchains and 300+ tokens. He explains the importance of the institutional component to adoption and how crucial secure custodians are for institutions to be able to fully enter the space. Belshe believes that DeFi is starting to show some incredible opportunities, and he mentions that there are already smart contracts operating at significant scale, automating away parts of traditional finance such as automated market makers. Belshe also mentions the value of token standards like ERC20 for building out the layers of crypto infrastructure. Standardization of various tokenization formats will accelerate the security and composability of the crypto space. Recorded on January 27, 2021. Key Learnings:
Security is paramount when working with institutional level investments. In order for crypto to be an asset class accessible to all, a secure fiduciary custodian is necessary infrastructure.
We are in the early stages of the infrastructure build out for the crypto space, and as the value of the assets grow, the level of security must also scale with it.
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DB-Mar29,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the next few months will be critical in determining how sticky rising inflation expectations will be. As the vaccination rollout progresses, albeit slowly in many countries, Boockvar explains that markets are continuing to look ahead to the reopening of the economy with fears of inflation constantly present. He sees that the pressures coming from increasing commodity, labor, and services costs could prove to have a lasting effect on inflation expectations in the months to come, and he says this could bolster the 10-year Treasury yield rising north of 2%. They also talk about how this may impact the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the Daily Briefing, Harrison welcomes Trevor Hall, host of the Mining Stock Daily Podcast, to discuss rising input and commodity costs and its overall effect on precious metals, industrials, and miners.
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Real Vision Live Replay : Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME Group, joins Wall Street veteran Harley Bassman of The Convexity Maven to discuss the impact of Fed policy on volatility across a handful of assets since the pandemic and, more broadly, since the GFC. In addition to this discussion of potential unintended effects of Fed policy, they examine its failure to generate meaningful inflation in anything aside from financial assets. They also debate whether negative rates in the US are probable—or even possible—as well as why the dwindling monetary policy toolbox combined with political rhetoric seems to point towards MMT and a passing of the baton from monetary authorities to fiscal authorities at least as it relates to generating inflation. Recorded on December 16, 2020. Key Learnings:
The Fed’s monetary policy has had measurable effects on markets, especially in terms of reducing volatility but has not been successful in generating inflation.
The shift from monetary to fiscal policy could be what finally ushers in the period of inflation many have been predicting.
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The Interview: Famed investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, star of Shark Tank, joins Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal to make sense of the changing market structure and the disruption of the financial establishment. Cuban sees tokenization and blockchain bringing more transparency to the financial industry and remains bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset. He also praises stimulus efforts but sees political partisanship as a major risk to fixing the dichotomy between Main Street and Wall Street. Recorded on February 3, 2021 Key Learnings:
Cuban follows the HODL ethos of cryptocurrency and shares what’s in his crypto portfolio: BTC, ETH, LTC, AAVE, and more.
When it comes to the public markets, he explains why Amazon and Netflix are among the big tech companies with the strongest AI capabilities and they’ve remained two of his biggest holdings for years.
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Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, returns to Real Vision to update his framework on how key economic variables such cash, liquidity, savings, and debt have been impacted by the global recession. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Koo applies to the current situation his noted theory of a "balance sheet recession" in which liquidity is ample, but the private sector nevertheless remains focused on paying down debt. Koo and Harrison analyze the interplay between the economic shutdown and economic growth. Lastly, Koo shares his views about quantitative easing, negative interest rates, central bank digital currencies, and ongoing efforts by central banks to stem the damage wreaked by the pandemic. Recorded on January 29, 2021 Key learnings:
Koo thinks that the unprecedented interventions of central banks were necessary to meet the once-in-a-lifetime crisis of COVID-19.
Like many, Koo expects that economic growth will pick up once pent-up demand is unleashed. However, after this spurt of economic activity,
Koo thinks that the overhang of debt could cause a significant balance sheet recession that is contractionary and deflationary.
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DB-Mar26,2021: Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry gives Real Vision’s Jack Farley a much-needed update on the “battles” in the market between mega-cap stocks that dominate the S&P 500 and the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 that have been ripping for months. Thornton analyzes the internals of the market, using DeMARK indicators to gauge exhaustion, and he looks at breadth, moving averages, and volatility. Thornton shares with Farley his view on bonds and energy stocks as well as Tesla, the ARK Innovation ETF, and specific stocks that are on his radar. For our Listeners :
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DB-Mar25,2020. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes to the Daily Briefing Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist of PNC Financial Services Group, and Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Agati shares her view on U.S. equity valuations, noting that stocks might have run too far, too fast amid reflation optimism, and Chandler argues that market performance will ultimately hinge on liquidity conditions, making the long-term case for why the dollar could be approaching the end of its bull cycle as twin deficits weigh it down. Agati also highlights that there is much opportunity in both the debt and equity of emerging markets, noting serious composition changes with the various indices. Lastly, Agati and Chandler share their views on bonds and credit. For our Listeners :
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DB-Mar24,2021: In the main segment, Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how he’s navigating the mercurial swings in stocks. Dillian argues that both the rotation from growth into value as well as the sell-off in U.S. Treasurys will likely continue as the U.S. economy re-opens and trillions of dollars worth of stimulus are on the table. Dillian shares with Farley his thoughts on reflationary sectors such as energy, airlines, and life insurance, and he also shares his evaluation of psychology within the Bitcoin market. In the final segment, Farley is joined by Huw Roberts, director of analytics at Quant Insight, who conducts data-driven analysis on how the gyrations in the Nasdaq 100 Index are driven by macro variables like interest rates, commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and expectations for growth and inflation. For Listeners:
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DB-Mar23,2021. Lily Francus, independent quantitative researcher, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share her outlook on narrative economics, the NOPE Index, and the dangers of beta. On the one-year anniversary of the bottom in the S&P 500, Francus notes that this current market environment is marked by a great deal of short covering and portfolio rebalancing, which drive the “rotation” trade away from growth into value that has been playing out. Francus explains how the surge of retail traders (or “low-information traders”) has driven flows and exerted a serious influence, particularly in the sky-high volume of options contracts. Francus connects this to her theory on NOPE (“net options pricing effect”) before sharing with Bennington her advice to traders in this choppy market.
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DB- Mar22, 2021. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley to share her analysis on the prospects of U.S. Treasury bond yields, given the Federal Reserve’s decision to give exemptions to banks’ supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) expire, and its apparent aversion to yield curve control (YCC). Alden tells Farley that forthcoming headline inflation figures could appear higher than true inflation due to base effects, and explains the how the record-high Treasury’s General Account (TGA) will affect bond yields going forward. Alden explains why she expects yields to be the release valve of volatility rather than the dollar, and notes that heightened uncertainty over macro variables makes this environment a paradise for pickers of individual stocks. Lastly, Alden shares her bullish thesis on Adobe Inc ($ADBE) and her evolving views on non-fungible tokens (NFTs). For Listeners:
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Real Vision Live Replays. It isn't hard to find data indicative of the madness that pervades the current market environment, but to Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, no data point encapsulates this quite as clearly as the staggering $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt outstanding in the world. As an avid historian of interest rates, Grant argues that the only certainty is that this will end and most likely it will end badly. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Grant explores why he is so certain that this monetary experiment will end badly, the unintended negative consequences that can be seen in credit markets as yield starved investors grope for any yield they can find no matter the risk, and the opportunities this presents for investors willing to bet that a guaranteed loss on your investment will eventually fall out of fashion. As well the pair will discuss the implications of Biden's selection of Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary and potential for a return to an inflationary environment. Recorded on Dec 3, 2020. For Jim's charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lBES10
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The Interview. Because of their favorable structure, SPACs have become the vehicle of choice for founders and venture capitalists to bring private startups to the public market—even with the explosion of SPACs in 2020, we are already on record setting pace in 2021. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital breaks down exactly why the SPAC structure is so favorable and argues that the knock-on effect of an M&A boom will produce the modern equivalent of the AOL-Time Warner acquisition, signaling that the top is in. Wolfe and Green also discuss Wall Street Bets and the current meme driven market, Josh's prediction of an "Occupy the Fed" movement, and the biggest opportunities in tech that he and Lux Capital are invested in Recorded on January 28, 2021. Key Learnings:
SPACs have a favorable structure that makes raising cash so easy that it will encourage rampant M&A, which will eventually result in the mega-deal, signaling the top of the market.
Crypto and Wall Street Bets are emblematic of outrage that Josh Wolfe believes will result in an "Occupy the Fed" movement and retroactive regulation. At the moment,
Josh Wolfe and Lux Capital are focused on the technology behind scientific advancement and the emerging space economy as their big bets.
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DB-Mar19,2021. Despite today’s head fake in bonds (yields surged but quickly retreated from their peaks), this Friday marks the seventh consecutive week in which the U.S. 10 year Treasury yield has risen. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to analyze how the continued sell-off in bonds is impacting bank stocks, tech equities, and the U.S. dollar. They explore how the Fed’s decision to let the SLR exemption expire will impact the bond market and banks. Ed updates viewers on Europe’s economic woes, and Jack gives a quick rundown of the wild gyrations in the oil market. The three also look at the rate hikes by the central banks of Turkey, Brazil, Norway, and Russia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB- Mar18,2021. Ramsey Smith, founder and CEO of ALEX.fyi, returns to Real Vision to share with managing editor Ed Harrison his economic outlook and his views on how the advent of COVID-19 has changed retirement portfolio construction as well as the nature of the annuities business. Smith notes that rising rates is good for the life insurance business because it is, like banking, a business that depends heavily on spreads. Smith thinks that the liquidity coming from stimulus will be helpful to markets. Lastly, Smith and Harrison explore to what degree society will return to “normal” as the economy re-opens. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar 17,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech. Harrison and Farley interpret the Fed’s projections of GDP growth, inflation, as well as their “dot plot” of the future Federal Funds rate. Farley reviews the price action in bonds, gold, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100, and Harrison analyzes the challenges many European nations face as they attempt to vaccinate their population against COVID-19. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Mike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Logica Capital, and Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, join Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss their opposing views on Bitcoin. They each explain their views on Bitcoin—Pompliano makes the case for Bitcoin being a store of value that should be widely adopted and encouraged by the United States in order to stay competitive globally while Green asserts that Bitcoin is used primarily for nefarious activity and is mainly controlled by entities that are oppositional to the United States. Green believes that Bitcoin is the perfect example of markets indicating that something is incredibly successful, even when in actuality it is failing (or will fail), and that its price appreciation does mean that it is a robust system. Filmed on February 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Pompliano believes that there are many non-trivial indicators that suggest Bitcoin is robust and becoming widely adopted including the number of wallets, transactions, and hash rate. He believes there is a significant chance that Bitcoin will be adopted by a significant amount of the S&P 500 companies and nation-states. On the other hand, Green thinks it is extremely unlikely to see major adoption from the largest companies and nation-states, explaining that this could even harm the U.S. He believes that Bitcoin can be trivially attacked and taken down by a nation-state and that the system is not as secure as many people claim it to be. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar16,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his thoughts on how the gyrations in the bond market are affecting risk assets. With the market leaning toward a more inflationary regime, Greer charts his way higher for equities as he sees growth pick up and a cyclical rotation out of tech and into natural resource stocks. Bennington and Greer briefly interpret today’s negative print in retail sales before moving on to the rise of non-fungible tokens, which they believe is creating a new form of value by allowing the authentication of digital art. Lastly, Greer shares his investment advice across all asset classes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar15,2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley interpret the day’s market news. Farley breaks down the bullish price action in U.S. airlines as TSA throughput picks up and Delta’s CEO hints at a brighter future. Harrison distills the market noise into three clear narratives: inflation vs. deflation, end of cycle vs. beginning of cycle, and institutional investors vs. retail investors. Harrison and Farley analyze the market impact of the stunning suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France, Italy, Germany, and many other European countries, and then they dive deeper into the plumbing of inflation breakevens, before remarking upon Tesla’s remarkable new names of its chief corporate officers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay: Segra Capital Management partner Arthur Hyde, CFA, and founder and portfolio manager Adam Rodman join Real Vision editor Max Wiethe to give an in-depth update on uranium. Hyde and Rodman provide a recap on the recent events in the sector and uranium's price movement, discuss why this is still a structurally undersupplied market, and share why interest in uranium is increasing. With the presence of COVID-19, they explain the risks that the pandemic poses to the uranium supply and that, despite these supply risks, the demand for nuclear power generation has remained resilient. They also dig into how existing and new nuclear energy will play a role in the secular global trend towards clean energy in light of China's, Japan's, and Korea's recent carbon neutrality pledges. Key Learnings:
Hyde and Rodman explore how nuclear power is an underappreciated, yet critical player in the transition to clean energy, and the uranium sector only stands to benefit from this trend.
Emphasizing that this transition will take years, they advise that investors should not be as preoccupied with uranium's price cycle—rather, it's more beneficial to focus on CapEx as a delayed CapEx cycle leads to sustained high prices in uranium.
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Eric Basmajian, founder and editor at EPB Macro Research, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy to break down his near-term outlook on the global economy as well his longer-term framework for macro investing. Basmajian notes that the growth rate in industrial output, the pick-up in demand for commodities, and a steepening yield curve indicate a growth pick-up. Alden and Basmajian explore the significance of the underperformance of banks (particularly regional ones) and energy relative to the S&P 500 and then dive head-first into more macro issues on a longer-term time horizon such as the interplay of debt, inflation, the dollar, interest rates, and the velocity of money. Recorded on January 26, 2021. Key learnings: The strength of cyclical economic momentum indicators, particularly in industrials, indicates growth will continue in the short-term. Within a longer-term time horizon, Basmajian believes that extreme debt levels incurred on corporate as well as government balance sheets will hamper growth, ultimately leading to deflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial and Real Vision president Travis Kimmel discuss how bonds and gold perform during times of deflation and insolvency. After Kimmel shares his journey as an entrepreneur and a technologist to Real Vision’s president, he explains why he thinks insolvency poses a serious risk for the U.S. economy. He and Van Metre discuss why Treasury bonds perform so well during times of economic distress, comparing the performance of long Treasury bonds relative to the S&P 500, as well as to gold and gold miners. After Van Metre explains why he believes quantitative easing is, in fact, deflationary, Kimmel describes the "greatest trades" he sees on the horizon. Recorded on January 21, 2021.
Key learnings: The repayment of debt destroys dollars, so the overhang of tremendous debt loads and obligations (rents, corporate borrowing, etc.) will prove deflationary.
In this scenario, Kimmel and Van Metre think bonds offer a favorable risk/reward.
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DB-Mar12,2020.Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a bond market trying to regain its footing and a wobbling equity market vulnerable to an ignited dollar. Raoul argues that inflation is probably on the horizon but insists that it will be temporary cyclical, not secular. Raoul estimates that the Federal Reserve’s pledge to target maximum employment – even if that means inflation runs hot – makes yield curve control a potential outcome. Lastly, Raoul and Ash discuss the rejuvenated crypto market with most coins trading at or above their all-time highs as well as the red-hot market of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which they argue empower artists and musicians by granting them perpetual claim on their work and have the potential to create a new mechanism of digital value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar11,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, and Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to the Daily Briefing to analyze the ongoing gyrations in the U.S Treasurys market and how their future path will impact almost every asset class. Harrison notes the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high, and Boockvar and Bianco consider the halting of the rotation trade. Boockvar explains that inflation expectations will continue to vex the bond market while Bianco argues that a 10 year rate above 3% would be a serious problem for leveraged institutions. They investigate the effect of yields on the U.S. dollar, and Boockvar and Bianco share their ideal asset allocation in this unique investment environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar10,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe analyze price action in U.S. equities as well as today’s print of the Consumer Price Index, which met but did not exceed expectations and indicates muted inflation. In the main segment, Jack speaks to Corey Hoffstein, co-founder and chief investment officer of Newfound Research. Using advanced quantitative modeling, Corey charts the rotation from growth to value stocks and notes how the underperformance of “momentum” investing is evidence of that very rotation. Corey investigates the claim that growth stocks are vulnerable to increases in interest rates, which he finds true but incomplete. Lastly, Hoffstein shares his view on the vulnerability of the Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) to bouts of reflation, looking at metrics such as implied correlation and implied volatility. Corey can be reached on Twitter at @choffstein. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Gavin Wood, co-founder of Polkadot and co-founder and CTO of Ethereum, joins Sebastian Moonjava, Real Vision associate crypto editor, to discuss Polkadot, Kusama, and the evolving crypto landscape. Wood explains that Polkadot was created to enable faster innovation in the blockchain space, reducing the amount of work necessary to start and secure a new blockchain and connect it to others. He describes Polkadot as a layer 0 technology, a meta protocol, that is more abstract and flexible than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Wood also talks about Kusama, which utilizes the same kind of technology as Polkadot but has a completely different development philosophy. Kusama is a faster iterating, more experimental chain that acts as a "canary network"—a real value, live chain that allows for rapid development of the technology. He describes Polkadot as a revolution in blockchain technology, not just an evolution. Recorded on January 21, 2021 Key Learnings:
Polkadot enables faster innovation in blockchain technology by making it easier for people to build, secure, and connect blockchains.
Kusama is a more experimental, faster iterating, blockchain utilizing similar technology as Polkadot.
Wood believes that Polkadot is a bet against maximalism as he doesn't prescribe to the idea that there is a "best" blockchain or set of rules for a chain, but that different use cases require different types, and Polkadot enables this.
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DB-Mar10,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to process the astonishing resistance rally in technology and growth stocks with high duration such as Tesla ($TSLA), Peloton ($PTON), DocuSign ($DOCU) and Zoom Video ($ZM). Jack notes that Tesla posted the 3rd biggest daily return in the history of the company, and Ed interprets the pause in the U.S. Treasury sell-off as gold staged a recovery and oil and copper lost the bid. The pair analyze the inclusion in the latest U.S. stimulus package of $86 billion worth of relief for failing pensions, and Ed shares why this bailout might prove a dangerous precedent. Lastly, Ed and Jack analyze the latest data showing that retail comprised a plurality of volume in the U.S. equity market as well as what the most frequented pages on RobinHood indicate about the rise of the retail trader. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar8, 2021. As treasury yields continued their ascent today, big tech stocks such as Alphabet Inc ($GOOGL) and Apple Inc ($AAPL) joined growthy darlings such as Tesla, Zoom, and Peloton in today’s sell-off with the NASDAQ 100 closing today down 11% from its highs. Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Tyler Neville, senior editor of Blockworks, to break down the ongoing rout from growth stocks. Neville shares how he thinks this “bubble in duration” will end, where he sees opportunity in going short GameStop puts, and why he remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay. Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow is infamous for his role in Enron's collapse; however, since serving his time and reflecting on his actions, he has turned over a new leaf, speaking about ethics and the problem of "legal fraud". In this interview with Quinton Mathews, managing member at QKM, Fastow argues that the biggest problem is the incredible number of loopholes that exist, allowing executives like himself to mislead and misrepresent without ever breaking a specific law and even having these misleading statements signed off on by corporate lawyers and auditors. Using poignant examples from Enron and other companies, Fastow highlights many of these loopholes and makes the case that closing them alone could not prevent the problem. Since leaving prison, Fastow has also began investing in a potential solution—Keen Corp's natural language processing software, which he believes if implemented could help corporations to avert white collar crime and detect problems in their ranks before gaining too much momentum. Andy Fastow can be contacted at FormerEnronCFO@gmail.com and KeenCorp can be contacted at NorthAmerica@KeenCorp.com. Recorded on December 16, 2020. Key Learnings: "Fraud" is not always a question of breaking a specific law, and there will always be routes for executives to "legally" mislead and misrepresent. Investors conducting fundamental analysis must be cognizant of this and do their homework when examining financial statements. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview. Jason Wild, founder of JW Asset Management, sits down with Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, to discuss his career journey from pharmacist to investor with a firm that oversees $1 billion through a mix of investments in pharmaceuticals and cannabis producers. Wild’s early success came from assembling Arbor Pharmaceuticals and later selling it to KKR in 2014 for a large profit. He used the proceeds to invest in major Canadian cannabis companies, and he has since become one of the first U.S. institutional investors in legal cannabis companies. Today he is building the global cannabis company TerrAscend, where he is Chairman. Recorded January 14, 2021 Key Learnings:
Wild identifies the top cannabis stocks to invest in and why he focuses on operating in limited-license states where there is less competition.
The COVID-19 pandemic has helped drive investor demand in the cannabis industry and states and voters are finally realizing that cannabis legalization is a solution to help revive the economy.
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The Interview: How you feel about gold, bitcoin, the Fed, or MMT probably has to do with how you answer the question, "What is Money?" In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Rohan Grey, assistant professor of law at Willamette University, argues that money is a construct of the law and as such is rooted in the social contract. In addition to discussing the importance of understanding this dynamic and its implications for crypto, MMT, and the banking system, Green and Grey explore the role of the law in society more broadly. Together they discuss the never ending dynamic between disruption and regulation, the rise of corporatism and the disenfranchisement felt by citizens who no longer feel able to affect change through the law, and the importance of civil discourse when discussing societies biggest problems. . Recorded on January 13, 2021 Key Learnings: Grey and Green highlight that the "opt out" ideology of hard money enthusiasts is driven by a correct assessment that the system is broken, but that their prescribed solutions will only exacerbate the problem and fail to solve the bigger issue of the disenfranchisement of an overwhelming majority of the populace. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-March5, 2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to make sense of today’s confounding price action. Growthy names plummeted alongside re-opening stocks like cruise lines and airlines, only for a sudden risk reversal to take place midday for all U.S. stock indexes to end the day deep in the green. Harrison and Bennington analyze today’s non-farm payroll numbers, which showed strength in the labor market concentrated in the beleaguered leisure and hospitality sector. After the three explore how rising bond yields impact credit spreads and credit risk, Harrison investigates whether the rotation away from growth and into value and re-opening stocks will be a lasting trend. Farley provides data concerning SPACs, showing that the number of special purpose acquisition vehicles trading below $10 has steadily rose and why this could be another sign of the fragility of growth stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar4,2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s volatile price action in bonds and high beta stocks. Boockvar explains that Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments earlier in the day triggered another sell-off in bonds as the market, emphasizing their fear of inflationary pressures to come in 2021, pushed back on the Fed for staying the course. Harrison and Boockvar explore a few different scenarios where the Fed could begin to move against the rise in rates including ramping up their bond buying programs and implementing yield curve control. They also examine the consequences of these actions and the possibility that the Fed will refrain from intervening until markets begin to break. Finally, Boockvar discusses equities, considering the potential winners and losers in this environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB, Mar3, 2021: In the first segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy shares with Real Vision editor Jack Farley her thoughts on how the ongoing rout in U.S. Treasurys will amplify the rotation away from growth stocks and into cyclical stocks. Alden opines on how the Federal Reserve could aim to reassert control over the bond market, whether it be “Operation Twist” or yield curve control. In the second and final segment, Farley welcomes Howard Klein, founder and partner at RK Equity, to give a strategic update of key parts of the mining sector such as graphite, nickel, and, most notably, lithium. Klein shares news on lithium miners such as Albemarle Corp ($ALB), Livent Corp ($LTHM), and Piedmont Lithium ($PLL), to which Klein is an advisor and is also up over 1000% since September 1, 2020. Klein explains why he thinks we are at the beginning of a commodity bull market and shares his views on MP Materials ($MP) and Nouveau Monde Graphite ($NMGRF). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday. Erik Voorhees, CEO and founder of Shapeshift.io, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss Shapeshift, the transition to a digital currency world, and some of the most exciting projects in crypto. Voorhees shares that Shapeshift was created when he realized that, for the industry to grow, people needed an easy way to swap between digital assets. He believes that society is actively transitioning from an analog fiat system of finance to a digital currency and blockchain one, and he has worked to support this transition with Shapeshift. Voorhees thinks that decentralized exchanges like Uniswap are some of the most important projects being built in crypto today, explaining that it’s critical to be able to trade in a decentralized and permissionless way. Key Learnings: The crypto ecosystem is still very young, but society is actively transitioning its financial systems to it. In order for this transition to happen fully, the sector needs to develop permissionless and decentralized infrastructure such as decentralized exchanges. These noncustodial exchanges are valuable to the security and permissionless nature of the system as a whole. Recorded on Jan 20, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar02,2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro where he declares that the five sigma sell-off in Treasuries last week marks the beginning of a new yield regime that will support a resources-led rally in earnest. Greer points to the dramatic move in rates being a response to visible commodity inflation, which is indicative of its strength. Because Greer sees a resources-led rally emerging, he explains why this is bad news for the tech sector over the next few months. After walking through the signals that are telling Greer that “this time is different,” he discusses how he’s positioning himself and what he’s eyeing in light of these changing market dynamics that continue to escalate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Mar1,2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is hosted by editor Jack Farley to break down the continued breakout in Treasury bonds as the S&P 500 posts its best day since June. Ed and Jack investigate last week’s carnage at the “belly” of the yield curve, the interest rate risk that long-duration bonds are exposed to, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s ramping up of its QE bond purchases in order to appease the “bond vigilantes” and keep rates pinned. Later, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins the show, and he shares his outlook on the risks that rising yields pose to markets as well as the dramatic rebound in the crypto markets. Raoul updates his views on commodities and emerging markets, sharing his key learnings from his interview with Jim Rogers, which aired today on Real Vision. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay. Real Vision co-founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, to forecast future economic growth and and the fate of fiscal stimulus going forward. With volatility rising and the recovery on ever shakier ground, DiMartino Booth clarifies the macro picture by looking at price action in the bond markets. Pal and DiMartino Booth will exchange their views on how markets will respond to these possibilities and explore the various potential paths that the economic recovery could take. DiMartino Booth will also be answering questions from Real Vision Plus members. Recorded on Oct 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview. Recorded on Jan 11, 2021. Carly Fiorina, founder and chairman of Carly Fiorina Enterprises and 2016 Republican Presidential candidate, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the value and challenges of regulating big tech and the enormous economic power it has amassed across the globe. Hailing from an extensive career in tech and finance as former CEO of HP, she discusses the opportunities that business can bring to the political table and the challenges she faced as a woman in male-dominated industries, and the value of regulating big tech. She also shares her views on current events from the storming of the Capitol to the political climate to the effects of the pandemic on public policy. Filmed on January 11, 2021. Key Learnings: Fiorina argues that focusing on results rather than partisan issues encourages competition and accountability to restore political systems and revitalize the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview- Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal welcomes back Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund devoted to Iranian equities, to discuss how he's identified a diversified economy in Iran despite decades of sanctions and geopolitical risks. His interest in Iran was sparked by the nuclear deal brokered by President Obama in 2015 where he found a stock market that had been operating for more than two decades and included nearly 600 companies with $200 million in daily liquidity. His fund gives Western investors access to fast-growing businesses with low valuations in an array of industries—from utilities and automotive to commodities and agriculture. He shares his perspective on managing volatility as well as how the U.S.-Iran relations are expected to change under a new Democratic administration, and he weighs in on trade with neighboring countries in the Middle Eastern region. Key Learnings: Despite an overall economy that has been rapidly contracting because of U.S. sanctions and weak oil prices, Iran has one of the best-performing stock markets. Iran's stock market is dominated by retail investors with foreign ones making up less than half a percent of the market cap. Wojtal looks for companies that have pure export exposure, and he has been able to find companies with exports in the region that are usually not affected by sanctions. Recorded on Jan 12, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb26,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a deep-dive on how rapidly rising interest rates are transforming the financial landscape before our very eyes. Ed and Ash analyze the latest economic data on rising personal income and share their views on the proposed $15 minimum wage that failed to make it into the stimulus bill. Jack and Ash review price action in stocks and commodities and explain how interest rates are like a financial gravity of sorts. Jack and Ed talk about how rising rates are creating tremendous change within the fixed income market. Lastly, the three discuss ARK Innovation ETF and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s falling below net asset value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to the Daily Briefing to make sense of the massive rout in long-dated Treasury bonds that is perturbing every aspect of the market—from high-flying growth names like Tesla to gold to Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Bianco connects bond market indigestion to that lingering question around inflation, and hazards that industrials and financials will fare the best on a relative basis. Bianco and Harrison look at the Fed Fund futures, which indicate that the market is pricing in a rate hike. They also discuss the outflows out of the series of ARK innovation ETFs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb24,2021: Has speculative mania reached a fever pitch? Will rising Treasury yields drag high-flying growth stocks back to the ground? Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Jared Dillian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to the Daily Briefing to explore these questions and explain how he is navigating these frothy, choppy markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on everything from his bullishness on commercial real estate and energy stocks to his concerns about liquidity mismatches in Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs. Dillian explains to Farley why he is long puts on "growthy" tech names like Tesla and Facebook and notes why he remains very constructive on gold and precious metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Circle co-founder, chairman, and CEO Jeremy Allaire joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss stable coins, regulation, and the problems that Circle is working to solve. Allaire explains that Circle was created to improve the way traditional money, or fiat, was transacted. This vision led the company to helping build out USDC, a fully backed stable coin. Allaire believes that once there is a fiat digital currency model on public networks, this would drive the cost of transacting value close to zero. He also states that regulation of the crypto space implies acceptance from governments and institutions and that this is a good sign for crypto. Filmed on January 14, 2021. Key Learnings: Transacting in the traditional banking system is expensive and slow compared to the new crypto payment and settlement rails. Fiat digital currencies can assist in dramatically reducing the cost of value transactions and can grow the utility of crypto networks dramatically. Consequently, a secure fiat digital currency can encourage governments and institutions adopt crypto networks. Recorded on Jan 14, 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb23,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of how a jittery stock market copes with rising yields. Thornton analyzes this morning’s big sell-off in the NASDAQ with "growthy" names plunging double digits, and he explores whether technology could be poised for underperformance in the coming months. Thornton explains why he is bullish on the energy sector, noting that it is one of the few sectors with a reasonable short interest. Bennington and Thornton then review Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at the Senate Banking Committee, which perhaps was meant to assuage the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb22,2021. Real Vision editor Jack Farley and managing editor Ed Harrison break down how rising yields are impacting risk assets such as growth equities and high-yield bonds. The pair review today’s price action, looking at everything from strength in oil and U.K. travel stocks to the significant sell-off in U.S. tech. Ed gives a primer on how rising yields dilute the value of assets with high duration and tells Jack why vaccination efforts in Europe are lagging behind the rest of the world. Later, Jack is joined by Weston Nakamura, former derivatives trader and head of the Real Vision Exchange, to analyze today’s price action in the Brazilian Real and Brazilian equities, which both plummeted as President Bolsonaro removed the CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. Ed and Jack close by looking at European fiscal as well as taking a sneak peek of tomorrow’s interview with John Hussman and Milton Berg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview, Recorded on January 4, 2021In the fight against COVID-19, lockdowns have become a major policy tool used by governments around the world with a stated goal of limiting the spread of the virus and keeping hospitals from running out of capacity. Nick Hudson, CEO of Sana Partners, and Russell Lamberti, Founder of ETM Macro Advisors, are part of Pandemics Data and Analytics, or PANDA, a collective of leading scientists, actuaries, economists, data scientists, statisticians, medical professionals, lawyers, engineers and businesspeople working to challenge the mainstream narrative around lockdowns using scientific evidence that they argue shows that 1) lockdowns are not effective at their stated goals and 2) the secondary costs of lockdowns far outweigh the potential benefits. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Hudson and Lamberti introduce viewers to their organization and make the case that the COVID-19 response does not square with any of the pre-COVID pandemic response protocols that were updated in late 2019, that the effects of lockdowns on children and other marginalized groups have not been properly considered, and that lockdowns could set a dangerous political precedent. As well, Green plays the role of devil's advocate and challenges both guests on the real problems of measurable excess mortality and dwindling hospital capacity that cannot be denied. More information about PANDA, their members, and methodologies can be found at https://pandata.org. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from editor Max Wiethe, managing editor Ed Harrison, and Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal . Together, they discuss their thoughts on the interviews from Real Vision’s campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?” and explore how these various interviews all connect to what’s occurring in the markets right now. They will also answer questions from the audience about the campaign and Real Vision itself. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb18,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Tyler Neville of Blockworks back to the Daily Briefing to share his thoughts on everything from implied volatility in the credit markets to the ongoing congressional hearings on GameStop’s remarkable rise and fall. Reporting from Austin, Texas, Neville shares his experience amid the ongoing arctic frost that is depriving so many Texans of electricity, heat, and running water as well as disrupting U.S. oil production by over 40%. Neville then shares with Harrison his analysis on lumber and homebuilding stocks and explores whether this crisis will cause secular inflation. Harrison and Neville then turn their gaze to the rising yields of U.S. Treasurys, which Neville thinks could be a wrecking ball for all risk assets. However, Neville argues that the Federal Reserve will enact yield curve control, and it is this possibility which Bitcoin and crypto investors have already “sniffed out.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb18,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe start the Daily Briefing by breaking down the latest stories, ranging from rolling blackouts in Texas to the congressional hearing surrounding GameStop to Berkshire Hathaway’s latest maneuvers. Then, Jack welcomes Eclectica Asset Management founder and former-CIO Hugh Hendry, who tells him about the interplay between real yields, gold, and silver as well as giving Real Vision a sneak peek of his short film, “An Intense Psychotic Cacophony.” Lastly, Jack speaks to Real Vision's Weston Nakamura about a dislocation Weston has noticed in the VIX futures market. For the latest edition of “Inside the Hive Mind,” click here: http://rvtv.io/HiveReportFeb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to provide analysis on the billowy price action in commodities. Greer looks at the market dynamics behind the rolling blackouts in Texas and discusses the oil curve steepening further into backwardation, allowing speculators to generate greater roll yield. Looking at similar phenomena in aluminum and copper, as well as the new relative highs in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ($OIH) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLE), Greer surmises that we could be seeing the dawn of a new bull market in commodities, which may lead to a commodity supercycle. Bennington asks Greer about his latest longs, which include Freeport-McMoran ($FCX) and several homebuilding stocks. Greer explains why he thinks put options offer a low risk/reward even with the VIX barely above 20. In sum, Greer thinks the liquidity faucets from the Federal Reserve will continue to buoy all assets higher, so investors should own assets—not cash. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview, Recorded on December 7, 2020: If you are one of the few who have studied the mechanics of monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system, most of what you learned may be out of date—that is, if you haven’t done so in the last five years. In this interview with Caitlin Long, CEO and founder of Avanti Financial Group, Dr. Manmohan Singh of the IMF explains the massive changes that have come about in the past decade and tries to dispel some of the preconceived notions many have about this complex system. In addition to this focus on the true mechanics of the current system, they also discuss the difficulty of trying to make sense of such an opaque and interconnected global system where laws and data reporting are not uniform from country to country. Moreover, Long and Singh zoom in on the tsunami of change that could be brought about by the growth of digital assets both inside and outside of the traditional financial system, and they highlight the intense focus on these developments by the private banking sector and bodies like the IMF. . Viewers can find more of Dr. Singh's work here: https://www.risk.net/collateral-markets-and-financial-plumbing-3rd-edition and https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Manmohan++Singh&name=Manmohan%20%20Singh Key Learnings: The plumbing of the financial system continuously evolves as institutions, regulations, and technology change. Coming from entirely different perspectives, Long and Singh both stress the level of attention digital assets are receiving from the highest levels of global finance and how important they will be to the future development of the financial system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington and editor Jack Farley to break down recent price action and inspect current market conditions. They analyze the remarkable soaring of Bumble’s stock price after its initial public offering (IPO) with Ash and Ed exploring whether the ongoing market ebullience is evocative of 1999. Ed and Jack then discuss how rising yields for U.S. Treasurys affect banks earnings, the price of earnings, and investor behavior in the credit markets. After the three of them briefly explain how the rise of passive investing is impacting market flows, Ash shares his thoughts on the first publicly traded Bitcoin ETF in North America. Ash, Ed, and Jack relate these topics to recent “Is Everything a Bubble?” interviews with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Lyn Alden, and Russell Napier, and they look forward to next week’s interviews with Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Felix Zulauf, and Mark Yusko. If you are not a member and you want access to these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/l/is-everything-a-bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB:Feb 10,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley delve into what Fed Chair Powell’s remarks indicate about the future of monetary policy and the economy. Max catalogs the rally in cannabis equities and notes that the bulk of the euphoria seems to be located in Canadian pot stocks, which may not be as favorable as their U.S. counterparts. After noting the tremendous volatility in MicroStrategy Incorporated ($MSTR), Jack and Max interpret what today’s reading for the Consumer Price Index, which fell slightly below expectations, means for reflation trades such as banks and energy. They close by giving a sneak peek of upcoming interviews with Julian Brigden, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, and Lyn Alden as part of the “Is Everything a Bubble?” series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB:Feb 9, 2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the oil market rally, signals of incoming inflation and the central bank response to it, and the drop in junk bond yields. Boockvar observes how oil is the last of the major commodities to join the rally as demand starts to catch up and the supply is demonstrating greater discipline, bringing markets into a full commodity rally. Boockvar then zooms out and breaks down the inflationary signals he’s witnessing and expresses his concern about whether an increase in consumer services will contribute to or relieve inflationary pressure. With junk bond yields dropping, Boockvar also explains how this may be due to more investors being pushed out onto the risk spectrum as investment-grade bonds are being perceived to have a Fed backstop. He points out the ever-growing bubble in bond markets and speculates that now is the first time in years where the true triggers for that bubble popping are in motion. He shares what retail investors should be watching out for, how QE has batted away the worst effects of bear markets, what drives the capital flight into the U.S., why the ECB's and BOJ's policies have in reality been more restrictive, and whether the Fed will ultimately have to implement yield curve control. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb7, 2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley discuss Tesla’s decision to buy $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin as a reserve asset on its balance sheet. They then analyze the how rising yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys will impact growth stocks as well as bank net interest margins. Using bank profitability as a jumping off point, Jack notes that the S&P 500 Financials Sector SPDR ($XLF) is at all-time highs, and Ed analyzes why this could be the case, sharing his outlook on the future of the U.S. banking industry. Lastly, Jack and Ed give a sneak peek of the interviews coming up for the “Is Everything a Bubble?” campaign with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Mark Cuban, Felix Zulauf, Lyn Alden, Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Mark Yusko, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Steve Clapham, and many other investors. To share your thoughts about “Is Everything a Bubble?” on the Real Vision exchange, click here: http://rvtv.io/3ju1T6q. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview, recorded on February 1, 2021 .In this interview with Jason Buck of The Mutiny Fund, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes of Alder Lane Farm pulls no punches as he diagnoses the true culprits behind the exponential volatility in stocks such as GameStop: extreme leverage and the hedge funds who use it in order to juice returns. Cohodes argues that hedge funds like Point72 and Melvin Capital are creating significant systemic risk for all market participants, most notably themselves, and he congratulates the retail trades on r/WallStreetBets but warns them that, generally, buying a stock merely because it has high short interest is a very bad idea. He closes by sharing with Buck his personal journey during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Key learnings: The stock market is not a game – it is a serious thing for serious people. The reckless use of leverage ought to be constrained by regulators, and all investors, institutional as well as retail, should be prepared to lose if they are wrong. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Recorded on December 14, 2020. David Salem, managing partner of Windhorse Capital Management, welcomes Andrew McDermott, president of Mission Value Partners, an investment firm that invests almost exclusively in Japanese equities. McDermott argues that Japan is a hidden repository of balance sheet strength, and he and Salem discuss why Japan's business leaders seem not to exhibit the same bad habits that have ruined so many previously-great American companies, such as Intel and GE. McDermott breaks down his analysis of specific companies such as Hitachi, Sazaby, and Daiichikosho Co., and then he tells Salem about the time Warren Buffett called him to seek out his knowledge and advice on investing in Japan. McDermott and Salem also reflect on macroeconomic factors such as demographics and Japan's government debt burden. Key Learnings: Japanese equities are one of the least-loved and arguably most misunderstood asset classes in the world. But they offer opportunity to the thoughtful investor, as the management of Japanese companies are more prudent and sensible with their allocation of capital. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share how his market framework is evolving. First, Raoul and Ash provide a sneak-peek into Real Vision’s upcoming campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?”, where Real Vision will be featuring high-profile investors such as Lacy Hunt, Felix Zulauf, Mark Cuban, Lyn Alden, Howard Marks, and Joel Greenblatt. Raoul describes the current market environment, stating that investors are record long equities, dealers are record long gamma, and the market, as a whole, is record short Treasury bonds. Raoul and Ash then discuss the outperformance of Ethereum and “altcoins” relative to Bitcoin. Lastly, Raoul shares his views on the speculative fervor in the equity market and compares the short squeeze in GameStop Corp ($GME) to the historic squeeze of German automaker Volkswagen. For the February edition of “Inside the Hive Mind” by Weston Nakamura and the Real Vision Exchange, click here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/inside-the-hive-mind-of-the-real-vision-exchange-feb-2021-issue-02-601d8ab41ab3070a37dcf1e3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Carson Block, CIO of Muddy Waters Capital LLC, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the different forms that financial fraud can take in the corporate world, what happened with GameStop last week, and how changing market structure makes activist short selling increasingly more difficult. Block distinguishes between two types of fraud that corporations can commit—legal fraud and intellectual fraud—and explains how insidious and corrosive the latter type is for companies. Harrison and Block then consider why these companies committing intellectual fraud are not being held accountable and how that leads to decaying faith in public institutions. Block also provides his perspective on the short squeeze in GameStop from last week, exploring how initially a smart retail trade morphed into a different sort of animal. He touches on the financial plumbing occurring behind the scenes and whether it truly is efficient or not, and he shares how he sizes positions for shorts, the growing challenges activist short-sellers face, and his experience while investigating American Tower in 2013. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the first segment, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal speaks to the mayor of Miami, Francis X. Suarez, about his plans to attract talent, jobs, capital, and “anchor tenants” to Miami as well as his embrace of blockchain technology. Mayor Suarez can be found on Twitter at @FrancisSuarez. In the main segment, senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory, about the ways in which the United States can better protect itself from the scourge of COVID-19. Hunt acknowledges that the variants of the virus might impair economic growth yet contends that asset markets might continue to prove resilient. Lastly, Hunt shares with Bennington his view on the run-up in SPACs as well as “meme stocks” such as GameStop ($GME). Bennington concludes by giving a sneak peek of tomorrow’s event, “Bitcoin in the Real World.” Join Real Vision and BlockFi on February 4 for a free one-day online event. RSVP at realvision.com/blockfi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to give an overview of GameStop as $GME and other retail favorites such as $AMC and $BBBY continue to unwind. Tony and Ash discuss the market mechanics behind margin requirements and liquidity concerns with Tony pulling no punches as he discusses key actors such as Dave Portnoy. Tony then proceeds to provide a strategic update on his natural resources trade as crude oil hits a new high and its futures curve enters backwardation. Lastly, Tony shares with Ash his outlook on the FAANG stocks, cannabis, and the velocity of money. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Feb1,2021: Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores how the Reddit mania is spreading from Gamestop to the precious metals market like silver and even SPACs. In the main segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison conducts a data-filled deep dive of the ongoing pressures in GameStop Corp ($GME), looking at factors such as the declining short interest to renewed activity in far out-of-the-money call options. Ed rejects the theory that silver will be the next hotspot of speculative activity and notes that natural gas was actually up more than silver today. Lastly, Ed and Jack discuss potential endgame scenarios for the speculative mania in distressed equities like GameStop, and Ed shares an update on COVID-19 variants. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
RealVision Live Replay, Recorded on September 14, 2020.Global macro investing is one of the most complex styles of allocating capital, as the data sets one has at their fingertips is just so large: non-farm payrolls, currency volatility, even high-frequency foot traffic. In this interview, Amlan Roy, head of global macro research at State Street Global Advisors, speaks to Real Vision CEO about how incorporating demographics within one's macro framework can help find the signal in the noise and give investors an edge. Roy discusses how demographic patterns map onto common macro data, such as growth rates, discount rates, savings rates, as well as interest rates, the ultimate macro statistic. This is the second installment in Raoul's multi-part exploration into how demographics affects global economics and finance.. For Raoul's first interview with chief investment officer Fredrik Nerbrand, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-big-picture/videos/demographics-i-pensions-in-crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview: Recorded on Dec 4 , 2020: With cases spiking and economic data surrounding the recovery slowing or outright rolling over in many cases, it appears as though a hard winter is in store for the global economy. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., is well known for having forecasted these types of downturns in the past and, along with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, discusses why he thinks we are in store for another economic downturn this winter. Shilling highlights real economic data like slowing job gains, increased COVID-19 deaths, and the potential for renewed economic shutdowns, but he cautions that the strange correlation, where bad news equals more stimulus and thus is bullish for equities, can draw out irrationality longer than investors might expect — even if stimulus fails to fully replace economic losses in the long-term. Shilling and Harrison also discuss his investment ideas that arise from this forecast: cautiously short equities, short dollar, and long treasuries. Key Learnings: The real economy and market are once again moving in the opposite direction. Shilling argues that this disconnect will close and that the long bond may be the best way to play to it. He also sees the stimulus feedback loop as putting more downward pressure on the dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview. Recorded on Nov5,2020 : Cloud investor Gordon Ritter, founder of Emergence Capital, one of the first venture capital firms to invest exclusively in software-as-a-service, or SaaS, manages portfolio companies that have a market cap of $400B+ and 13 IPOs or exits greater than $500 million, including high-profile exits like Zoom and Salesforce. He joins Real Vision founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, for a conversation about the evolution of the software sector, how fast the SaaS investing market is today, the future of machine learning, the challenges ahead in data privacy, and the digitization of education. Filmed November 5, 2020. Key Learnings: The premise of SaaS is that a piece of software is hosted on a cloud infrastructure (operated through a web browser), and businesses pay a monthly fee to get access to this software. Investors in SaaS companies have reaped huge benefits, and the widespread adoption of SaaS platforms across business and personal applications doesn't appear to be slowing down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan29,2021: In the intro, Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Lily Francus, derivatives trader and PhD candidate in Bioinformatics at the University of California San Diego, about the unique market mechanics that have characterized the run in GameStop Corp ($GME). In the main segment, Ash welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to debate whether the Robinhood ban on trading is unfair and if it reveals unseen holes in the functioning of capital markets. Jack provides data on options flow in $GME, and the three explore whether the wall of gamma will break down or get even higher, agreeing that Monday will be a turning point as this is when $GME calls with higher strike prices could get written (and can be bought by retail traders). Ash and Ed discuss how susceptible the various COVID-19 variants are to the vaccines and how their ominous spread will impact the reflation trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan28,2021: Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about the newest developments in the GameStop story and the market implications of elevated activity in options trading. Floyd expresses his concern over the restricted buying over GameStop and other equities experiencing similar price action that occurred today, stating that it’s bizarre and ludicrous to mandate how traders allocate their capital, which cuts to the core of ongoing social issues. However, he explains that the anger arising from these circumstances is misdirected as the market environment and price discovery has continuously been muddled by regulations and monetary policy. Harrison and Floyd move on to discuss the equity market at large, and he explains that the record number of call options being purchased and puts being sold at open can introduce a destabilizing effect on markets. In light of this high implied volatility, he then expounds on how this impacts futures, the dollar, and time horizons, and what trades he has his eye on now. Jack Farley breaks down the saga of GameStop Corp ($GME) and how forced buying is turning into forced selling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan27,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison sits down with Max Wiethe to discuss how Ed is making sense of the retail assault on short-sellers as an expression of the unfolding of The Fourth Turning. Harrison argues that intergenerational conflict has been brewing outside of the market; however, it now has found its way to Wall Street in the form of Robinhood traders looking to take out the old guard of finance and make a killing in the process. Real Vision’s Peter Cooper kicks it off by examining the various short squeezes occurring across U.S. and European equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Recorded on November 30, 2020. Caitlin Long, CEO & Founder of Avanti Financial Group, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss Bitcoin, Wyoming at the forefront of regulations, and the problems of custody for crypto assets. Long explains the benefits Bitcoin has over many traditional asset classes as well as the concerns brought about by unclear regulations. She sheds light on how and why Wyoming aims to provide the most clear crypto regulatory environment in the US, and she also touches on Avanti, the crypto bank and custody company she founded. Key Learnings: The importance of having clear regulations for crypto assets and their custody can not be understated. As innovative states such as Wyoming remove uncertainty by providing clear regulations, more investors will be able to get exposure to the asset class with confidence. Regulations are becoming more clear, but not all states stand on equal footing, and competitive regulatory environments are emerging within the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan26,2021: Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to break down a day of absurd price action as GameStop skyrocketed 90% today and zoomed an additional 46% during afterhours trading. Tommy and Ash reflect on the shrewd yet reckless speculations of the r/wallstreetbets traders, who pushed hedge funds that were short GameStop like Melvin Capital to the brink, with Tommy noting that this intentional targeting of shorts triggered a record day of long/short degrossing. Turning to technical indicators, Tommy comments on the buying exhaustion he is seeing via DeMARK indicators, saying “this is a bubble that I think could pop at any moment.” He recommends “ringing the register” on successful trades and turning to cash. Tommy closes by giving Ash a long idea: Zynga Inc ($ZNGA). In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin makes sense of the market as company earnings reports take center stage and wild swings resume on heavily shorted stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down the logic-defying price action in highly speculative stocks like Blackberry, AMC Entertainment Holdings, and, most notably, GameStop Corp, which surged over 160% to $159 before plummeting yet still being up on the day. Ed and Jack break down the “short squeezes” and “gamma squeezes” that are inflating those names, particularly GameStop, with Ed interpreting his Real Vision Live with Jim Bianco today and Jack sourcing info from volatility trader Kris Sidial. Lastly, Ed shares his thinking on how the different COVID-19 variants will impact re-opening as well as the reflation trade, which he thinks may have overstepped its bounds. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin describes what happened with GameStop’s volatile trading today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Live Replay, Recorded on 24 Sep 2020: Here at Real Vision it’s clear that viewers are keenly focused on Raoul’s unfolding thesis and the potential that the market is teetering between hope and insolvency, but so are many of our contributors. Matt Rowe of Headwaters Volatility Solutions was inspired by Raoul’s recent call for an insolvency phase and in this special edition of Real Vision Live will be putting his corporate credit hat back on to provide a deeper dive into how both credit and equity markets are totally mispricing the insolvency risks looming large post-COVID. Please note that Matt has an extensive background in corporate credit and before founding Headwaters Volatility Solutions was the managing partner of a fund focused on convertible bond and capital structure arbitrage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Interview, Recorded on December 1, 2020.: Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, welcomes Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for a wide-ranging discussion on international trade and the Eurodollar system. Hendry mounts a nuanced defense of the dollar's role as the global reserve asset, whereas Alden sees a slow but steady de-dollarization happening around the world, which she expects will continue. Hendry and Alden discuss whether China's role in international trade is "mercantilist," and whether its stagnant reserves of U.S. Treasurys is a true macroeconomic bellwether. Lastly, Hendry and Alden look forward to identify potential solutions to these problems, such as digital currencies (Alden's solution) and ultra-negative rates (Hendry's solution). Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos. Key learnings: Alden and Hendry agree that structural forces have prevented the dollar from weakening to the levels implied by its persistent trade deficit. But while Alden thinks the Eurodollar system will expand beyond the control of the U.S., Hendry argues that American commercial banks will continue to control the supply of dollars in reality, and that the U.S. will remain the global monetary hegemon. Hendry has also provided a transcript he has personally edited to clarify some of his points in this interview: https://rvtv.io/3gysJZT Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, joins Real Vision's Jack Farley to share his strategic outlook for assets such as the U.S. dollar, technology and energy stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Vallee explains why he believes that real rates for U.S. Treasury bonds will increase, and he describes why this view makes him believe there could be a capital exodus from technology into energy equities, as well as making bitcoin and gold less attractive to hold for the short-term, although he remains bullish on these two assets over the long-term. Filmed on November 24, 2020. Key learnings: Real rates on U.S. Treasuries will likely rise. Long-term the U.S. dollar will encounter problems, but Vallee spots short-term tactical opportunity as Treasury issuance will create liquidity negative conditions over the next two-to-three months. Vallee is very positive on energy, Latin America, EM debt, as well as commodities relative to U.S. tech and bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan22,2021: Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share his latest thoughts on COVID-19, market froth, and cryptocurrency. Using models from his latest Real Vision Pro report, “Wile E. Coyote,” Raoul plots several dire situations for COVID-19 deaths. Raoul then talks about why he may smell “fire in the room” in the equity market, looking at indicators such as call option volume, activity in the pink sheet stocks, and the sky-high use of margin. Raoul and Ash then discuss the recent pullback in Bitcoin, and Raoul tells Ash what he thinks of alt coins and the risk/reward they offer to investors. Raoul reflects on the recent flatness in bond yields and the dollar, and he explores whether macro investors are turning toward crypto markets because that’s where the action is happening. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down today’s economic data release for the PMIs from Germany, France, and the U.S. as well as IBM’s earnings disappointment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB-Jan21,2021: Michael Lebowitz, partner at Real Investment Advice, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss where inflation is headed and whether the market’s bet on the Fed getting it right this time has merit. Lebowitz discusses the nature of market price action for the past several months as risk assets have caught on fire and sector rotation has been occurring with incredible speed. With the growth of M1 and the velocity of money moving in opposite directions, Harrison and Lebowitz explore how the Fed might have to rethink their quantitative easing (QE) operations in order to achieve their goals of generating inflation. In light of this context, Lebowitz discusses his investment approach in this market environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin checks out the markets on the first full day of President Biden’s holding office. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DB - Jan20, 2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to update his views on how yield curve steepening is affecting equity markets and his three potential outcomes for the reflation trade. Harrison and Wiethe also debate whether the reflation trade is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario and tee up Real Vision’s big content campaign for February where we attempt to answer the question, “Is Everything a Bubble?” In the intro, editor Jack Farley reviews price action and analyzes Morgan Stanley's latest earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Ari Paul, CIO & managing partner of BlockTower Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the launch of Paul's fund, value accrual in the crypto space, and how far along we are in this crypto bull market. Paul explains how he views the risk curve and how he filters through crypto projects. He describes the importance of understanding timing in the markets and how he believes crypto markets have dramatically more alpha in them than traditional markets. He closes by discussing the recent regulatory attention that the crypto space has received. Key Learnings: Paul explains the game theoretical concerns of crypto hard forks and how minority chains are insecure. He believes, "We are only in the 4th inning of this bull market cycle." Paul and Pal state that there is significantly more alpha to be found in crypto markets over traditional markets, and they expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
DAILY BRIEFING: Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden’s inauguration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young age should impact their risk tolerance and portfolio construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
REAL VISION LIVE REPLAY'S: Last time Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” was on Real Vision, he discussed why the central banks’ constant money printing to combat deflation is only a losing battle and how technology contributes to the strengthening of secular deflationary trends. With the arrival of COVID-19 this year, Jeff and Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, discuss how the pandemic has catalyzed this scenario by contextualizing it within the current market environment, as well as explore what will maintain purchasing power in the long term and avoid monetary debasement. Recorded on Sep 24, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Recorded on October 28, 2020. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of "fiscal dominance" where huge budget deficits invite inflation the likes of which the U.S. hasn’t seen since the 1970s. In this inflationary regime, White and Yang argue, hard commodities will be a source of massive returns. Their thesis is also shaped by their theories on capital scarcity, in which the less capital is deployed in a sector, the greater potential for return. Key learnings: Tian Yang and Simon White argue the world is on the brink of a new inflationary regime, driven by "fiscal dominance" and swollen central bank balance sheets, in which hard assets such as gold, silver, oil, gas, and coal will finally have their heyday. You can read more on the commodity supercycle here: https://rvtv.io/35kVFAd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months. Raoul and Ed interpret today’s dismal retail sales figures, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month. With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short U.S. Treasurys as well as the U.S. dollar. Ed asks Raoul his thoughts on the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, the approaching inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden, and Biden’s new $1.9 Trillion stimulus plan. Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about “the death of macro”: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies – the bread and butter of macro investing – were extremely low over the next decade? In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze of GameStop Corp ($GME). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Real Vision’s new president, Travis Kimmel, to the Daily Briefing. Travis shares his Real Vision journey from an entrepreneur to a self-taught investor and outlines his macro framework for thinking inflation, credit creation, and currency flows. Travis explains why he isn’t fully convinced by the reflation narrative and why he believes that fiscal aid is more likely papering over the cracks than truly providing economic stimulus. Travis shares his view of Bitcoin, which he calls “a curious beast” and “a tabula rasa for narratives.” Lastly, Travis tells Ed about his concerns about the stable coin Tether. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the markets reacting ahead of President-elect Biden’s stimulus speech this evening, and the implications of the jobless claims rising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss why he thinks US treasury yields—and not the dollar—is the key to the success or failure of the reflation trade. Together Ed and Max discuss the recent action in the bond market, the knock-on effects this has had for other reflation assets like precious metals, commodities, and equities, and the three discrete outcomes that Ed believes could arise in 2021 depending on the direction and speed of bond market moves. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of the latest Consumer Price Index data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto Wednesday: Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, joins Real Vision ceo Raoul Pal to discuss investing in the crypto space, the risk curve, and accelerating crypto adoption. Novogratz breaks down how he allocates his own crypto portfolio and touches on some of the lessons he learned in the 2017 crypto bubble. He explains the impact that COVID-19 had on crypto and the digitization of everything. Novogratz describes the different products and funds available through Galaxy Digital Holdings.Key Learnings: The crypto investment space is growing quickly, and Novogratz shares some of the lessons learned from the previous crypto bubbles he has experienced. He explains the importance of staying rational, and touches on some of the key metrics he follows, such as, market cap and fully diluted market cap. Community and use or "pick up" of a project are core components he looks at when studying a new crypto investment. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the full force of inflation that could emerge in 2021 could pose a significant risk to the Fed’s ability to execute. With Treasury yields rising, Boockvar anticipates the scrutiny of stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios to continue expanding, and once the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more extensive in the coming months, he explains that the shift in spending toward services-oriented consumption could trigger a rise in nominal rates, but not necessarily in real rates. With the potential risk of inflation accelerating in the coming months and a yield curve that could steepen too quickly, he argues that these circumstances will restrict the Fed’s ability to act in the case of a market event. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the continued rise in treasury yields and the macro economic impact of all the debt that has been printed by the U.S. government. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the interplay between interest rates and duration and why lower interest rates cause growth stocks to explode higher as well as what rising yields mean for risk assets and the dollar. Ed and Jack discuss Bitcoin, analyzing its volatility profile as well as its correlation to other cryptocurrencies and to traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Since Bitcoin is in the hands of more institutional investors, who also own and trade traditional assets, Ed and Jack also explore whether the success of Raoul’s “wall of money” thesis means that Bitcoin will be more positively correlated to stocks and bonds going forward. Lastly, Ed shares several market dislocations that are on his horizon which are shaping his macro framework and trade ideas. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explains why market sentiment is dim on Monday, a modest reversal after last week’s strong start to 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Recorded on 3 Sep, 2020. Central banks are powerful entities -- of this, there is no doubt. As of late, however, they have gone from powerful to almost omnipotent. Markets hang on their every word, and even minuscule changes in rhetoric, implied or explicit, have monumental impacts on how participants position themselves. Since March, the “Fed's got your back” mantra has rocketed markets to new all-time highs. Now, there are two questions to be had. First, what role will central banks play moving forward as they go above and beyond their mandates? Second, will their macro framework and economic toolkit be enough to lift growth and change the path of inflation? In an attempt to understand how this all plays out, we’ve invited Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, to sit down with Ed Harrison in this segment of Real Vision Live. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Recorded on 18 Aug 2020. The unprecedented nature of everything going on today has made topics such as the viability of fiat currencies, USD reserve status, Bitcoin, monetary/fiscal policy, and precious metals the talk of the town. Everyone is now wondering what these things mean and how they will impact their lives moving forward. No doubt, questions abound. However, by using macroeconomics as a lens, one can begin to understand not just what these seemingly complicated things are, but how their interrelated nature can impact the world around us. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy recently did an Expert View where she laid out many of her positions on these concepts and how they fit into her strategy. For this segment of Real Vision Live, we’ve invited her back to sit down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a macro masterclass where they will dive into these different areas in an attempt to understand where we are, and more importantly, where we may end up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dan Morehead, CEO and founder of Pantera Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the current macro setup and its relationship to crypto as well as why this crypto bull market is different from the last and what the potential benefits could be from incoming regulations. Morehead explains what the focus at Pantera Capital has been over the past several months, including what he expects to outperform in the crypto sector. He also describes how he sees the crypto ecosystem evolving over the next few years and why the entry of Paypal into the crypto space is significant. Key Learnings: With his extensive knowledge of the macro world, Morehead brings a wealth of expertise to the crypto space, and he expounds on what factors may have contributed to the recent surge in crypto interest and value. He describes why Bitcoin will likely continue to do well; however, he elaborates on why he expects other crypto assets to outperform and why Bitcoin might not be able to outperform some smaller assets in the sector. Recorded on December 8, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal returns to the Daily Briefing to share with Ash Bennington his updated thesis for the new year. Raoul argues that the prevailing narrative around reflation is a “one-sided bet” (short bonds, short dollars, long commodities, and long equities) that offers little upside, remains vulnerable to the risk of shutdowns, leaves a lasting scar on the labor market that will take years to recover from, and causes a spike in the U.S. dollar, which would serve as a “wrecking ball” for a host of reflation risk assets. Instead, Raoul prefers bonds, a sprinkling of puts on the S&P 500, and of course crypto, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum. Raoul and Ash reflect on the tremendous rally in Bitcoin and discuss how Metcalfe’s law applies to it and Ethereum. They also discuss the implications of the rise in COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations and how those factors will affect markets and the economy. In the intro, editor Jack Farley reports on the latest jobs numbers and reviews price action in Tesla, gold, and silver. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst examine the consensus around reflation which has gripped financial markets – a narrative that Roger views as the most unanimous one he’s seen in his entire career. Ed and Roger first define reflation as a pick-up in growth alongside inflation and explore why so many market participants believe it to be a foregone conclusion. They then discuss the rush into small-caps, high yield, and low-quality stocks that has occurred as the confidence in reflation has strengthened. Ed and Roger consider everything from the yield curve to job losses to speculative positioning in copper and cattle, and they look forward to what is on the horizon for markets and the economy. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines why the political unrest in Washington didn’t dent cryptocurrency or the stock market’s ongoing rally Thursday, and she looks ahead at what to expect from the job market in 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, believes that liquidity is the ultimate force driving global markets. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Howell argues that liquidity, debt, and asset prices are interlocked in a predictable cyclical relationship that he calls "the debt-liquidity spiral." Although - as its name suggests - this cycle results in higher debt levels and risk, it isn't inherently bearish for equities. Together, Howell and Harrison discuss where we are currently in this cycle and why it has him bullish on the Euro, equities, gold, and bitcoin, but bearish on bonds and the Dollar. They also discuss the effects of the U.S. decoupling from China on a handful of assets and why it will likely continue under a Biden administration. . Key Learnings: Howell’s liquidity models have him cautiously bullish on equities — more specifically, his models are indicating that they are nowhere near bubble territory and haven’t been since 2000. His models also point towards a lower Dollar, higher Euro, 2% yields on the U.S. 10-Year in 2021, and gold and bitcoin at $2,500 and $25,000 respectively. Recorded on November 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this unique edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington give a breaking news update on the unprecedented events unfolding in Washington, D.C., whether or not they will have impact on the markets having closed at record high, and if they are reflective of events on the ground or are divorced from political and social reality. Then, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the ADP jobs report and the possibility of a jobless recovery for the U.S. economy. In the main segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley how her reflation thesis has been shaped by recent events such as the Georgia runoff election, the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes, and the chaos in the nation’s capital. Alden shares her latest trades on EM bank stocks and breaks down various quantitative measures to value Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to share his thoughts on the first rally of the new year. Tony arrives in high spirits as the eye-popping gains of crude oil, iron ore, and nickel authenticate his bullish-commodities thesis. He eyes the agricultural grain commodities such as wheat and corn for entry points and tells Ash why the ISM Manufacturing reading of 60.7 shows him why inflation isn’t just on the horizon but is in fact already here. Ash provides context on Chinese demand for commodities and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cut of oil. Lastly, Tony broadens his gaze to the macro picture, declaring that the ultra-dovish policies of the Federal Reserve are creating a “liquidity bonanza” that is rendering commodities an “inflation hedge paradise.” In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reports on tonight’s two runoff senate elections in Georgia and their potential market impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hayman Capital's founder and CIO Kyle Bass welcomes forensic accountant and Behind the Balance Sheet's founder Stephen Clapham to break down the accounting irregularities peppered throughout the regulatory filings of China’s biggest tech companies. Sharing insights from his proprietary research report on Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, Meituan Dianping, and Tencent, Clapham shines a light on the ways these companies are using loopholes in order to inflate profits, hide liabilities, and mask the capitalization of questionable assets. Bass frames Clapham's findings through the lens of notable balance sheet disasters and downright frauds, and they explore the jurisdictional risk of investing in Chinese companies in general. Lastly, Bass asks Clapham about his latest book, "The Smart Money Method: How to Pick Stocks Like A Hedge Fund Pro". Key Learnings: Hidden risks lurk within corporate balance sheets, even those of the world’s largest tech companies. Stephen Clapham and Kyle Bass show viewers how to spot those risks before they can inflict major damage to your portfolio. Recorded on November 18, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mike Green kicks off the Real Vision Daily Briefing in 2021 with Real Vision’s Max Wiethe. Although markets sold off and volatility rose sharply, Mike was not particularly surprised by today’s price action and attributes today’s selloff to market participants who waited until 2021 to take profits rather than the runoff risks that many attributed to this. He also makes the case for markets building towards a substantial correction at some point in 2021 and gives his outlook for the Georgia runoff and other important events on the horizon. In the intro section, Haley Draznin analyzes recent price action in bitcoin and equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Recorded on October 8, 2020. Olaf Carlson-Wee, founder & CEO of Polychain Capital, joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Web3, decentralized finance, and the future of blockchain technology. Carlson-Wee describes his background, being Coinbase’s first employee, and the creation of Polychain Capital. He covers decentralized autonomous organizations, how they operate today, and how they will look in the future. Carlson-Wee goes into detail about the next generation of blockchains and how they differ from Bitcoin and the utility they hope to achieve. He explains the importance of defi and breaks down how he approaches research to find "the next big thing". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Recorded on 17 August 2020. It's no secret that as of late, precious metals have become the talk of the town. Gold recently blasted through its all time high, while silver continues its seemingly unstoppable run. With so much excitement surrounding the two metals, however, one must exercise extreme caution and discipline when choosing a way to gain exposure since not all assets are cut from the same cloth --particularly when it comes to the mining sector. On this segment of Real Vision Live, we bring you an individual that is well versed on the matter as he managed to turn $250k into several million by investing in a mining company that turned out to be a scam. Ultimately, he sold and immediately shorted the stock, which in turn allowed him to benefit from both the rise and fall. Warren Irwin, President and CIO at Rosseau Asset Management, will be joining Max Wiethe to discuss the nature of scams in the mining space and how to go about choosing the right companies to take part in what many believe could be the beginning of a bull market in precious metals. List of things to watch out for when investing in junior miners: https://rvtv.io/31oGWT9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to re-imagine the future of money, credit, currency, and interest rates. The great predicament of the past decade, Hendry argues, has been the tendency of central bank lending to become "trapped" in the commercial banking sector as reserves rather than being funneled into the real economy to fund productive activity. To fix this problem, Hendry envisions a world of ultra-negative rates in order to funnel the liquidity out of the financial sector. Short-term rates would have to go to -3% -- perhaps even lower in order to accommodate a steep yield curve -- is needed for banks to not go out of business. Pal investigates the profound consequences that this paradigm shift in monetary policy would have on the dollar, inflation, and creation, asking Hendry about alternatives such as perpetual bonds and modern monetary theory. Pal and Hendry then consider the optimal portfolio for this brave new world, including assets such as gold, calls on Eurodollar futures, and even Bitcoin. Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos Key learnings: A move to ultra-negative interest rates might be necessary to force liquidity out of the banking system and into the real economy. Such a paradigm shift in monetary policy would drench most assets in unprecedented liquidity and make cash a very unattractive asset to hold. Recorded on November 12, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Long-term investment strategist and co-founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham has made a name for himself as a bubble spotter. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Grantham argues that although we are again in a market bubble, it has an entirely different make up than prior bubbles and is almost devoid of the opportunity that these periods of misallocation historically provide. As a result, he sees opportunities as few and far between in public markets. With the exception of emerging markets and the greening of the economy, an endeavor that he believes is a societal necessity, he encourages investors to look towards venture. Together, Grantham and Green also debate China's position in Grantham's emerging market thesis and the green revolution, the pollution paradoxes of greening the economy, and the merits of societies and forms government that incentivize cooperation among people and risk taking in the form of early stage venture capital. Key Learnings: Emerging markets are the only place that Grantham sees clear opportunity in public markets. Using COVID response as a case study, Grantham worries about America’s potential to solve the problem of climate change. He also argues that if not for venture capital, American innovation would be non-existent. Recorded on November 18, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Boaz Weinstein, founder and CIO of Saba Capital Management, made a name for himself at Deutsche Bank in the early days of credit derivatives. Since leaving to start his own fund he has continued to make a name for himself as a master of credit derivatives and relative value. In this interview with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Weinstein discusses how the current environment of tight spreads for pristine balance sheets and vulnerable companies alike is presenting some interesting relative value opportunities. Harrison and Weinstein also discuss Bill Ackman's recent reup on the same big CDS trade that has helped Saba return over 70% YTD, the Fed’s role in credit markets and credit ETF liquidity problems, and the opportunities Weinstein is seeing in closed-end funds. Key Learnings: The credit of companies with close to zero percent chance of defaulting is trading at the same prices as companies with serious COVID risks is presenting RV opportunities. Closed-end funds trading at discounts to NAV are also presenting rare opportunities for yield in this low-rate environment. Recorded on November 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Venture capitalist Keith Rabois, a general partner with Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, is widely known for his early-stage startup investments and his executive roles at PayPal, LinkedIn, and Square. He sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, to discuss the evolution of innovation in Silicon Valley over the last two decades, highlighting its entrepreneurial spirit and the revolutionary power of technology. They dive into the shifts in consumer behavior amid the coronavirus pandemic, the IPO market boom, the rise of SPACs, and how COVID-19 could transform higher education. Recorded on September 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tyler Winklevoss, CEO and co-founder of Gemini, and Cameron Winklevoss, president and co-founder of Gemini, join Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss how they first discovered Bitcoin, their exploration into other crypto assets, and market psychology. They explain the importance of network effects for Bitcoin, noting that it is a type of social network. The Winklevoss brothers share their grand vision for Gemini and how they plan to shepherd the next wave of adopters away from legacy finance and fully into crypto. Key Learnings: The crypto asset class is very small and, because of this, institutional investors have been unable to get exposure to it. Bitcoin is a very young asset with enormous upside potential. Many people are just starting to get their feet wet in crypto, and the Winklevoss brothers believe that eventually people will leave the legacy financial systems fully for crypto infrastructure with Gemini helping to facilitate this migration. Recorded on December 7, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital, gives Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, an inside glimpse of the seismic forces that are radically transforming the investment landscape — from SPACs and tokenization to data autonomy and virtual learning. Palihapitiya argues that old structures of capital formation, which prioritized buybacks rather than Research & Development (R&D) and "efficiency" rather than resiliency, will give way to a new future in which fintech companies will replace "too big to fail" banks, green energy will de-escalate geopolitical tensions, and tokenization will serve as a digital ledger for every financial transaction. Palihapitiya and Pal discuss the role of Bitcoin in this new world, and Palihapitiya advocates for a form of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Key Learnings: The old ways of managing companies and allocating capital were unsound, and COVID-19 has laid bare the fact that the "emperor has no clothes." With radical change is on the horizon, investors should embrace these technological transformations in order to become a magnate of the future. Recorded on November 16, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Harvey Sawikin, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at Firebird Management, a fund dedicated to investing in frontier and emerging market equities in Eastern Europe, joins Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin for a conversation about the development of emerging markets over the past several decades and the sector outlook. Firebird started out as the first Russian portfolio equity fund and has since expanded to include other countries in the region such as Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Romania. Sawikin shares why his investment strategy differs in more mature and developed markets, how a typical investor in emerging markets has evolved, portfolio repositioning amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the value of travel in investing. . Key learnings: Emerging markets are often a blind spot for investors—finding them requires assessing liquidity risk and geopolitical climate. Dollar strength and weakness is the macro factor that has the biggest impact on emerging markets. The disinflationary environment has led Firebird to reposition its portfolio towards more growth stocks in the Eastern European region and less towards cyclicals. Recorded on December 18, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
William White, former central banker at the BoE, BoC, and BIS and senior fellow at the CD Howe Institute, has been a thorn in the side of his central banking colleagues for decades, questioning their hubris and pushing hard for a paradigm shift from within. Together with legendary financial commentator Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, White explores the difficulty of paradigm shifts within central banking and the overwhelming historical evidence that this easy money experiment will end badly. White also expresses what he believes to be the core problem with central bankers' analytical framework — namely, that it assumes that the global economic system is "comprehensible, understandable, and controllable" rather than a complex, adaptive system with characteristics that are not present in the models that attempt to decipher it. As well, Grant questions White on his views on Bitcoin, how he personally invests, what he would do if he were running the Federal Reserve, and if there is any possible way out of our current predicament. . Key Learnings: Central Bankers' neglect for history will be their ultimate undoing, and although new, previously unthinkable policies have been enacted recently, it can hardly be considered a paradigm shift but merely a more extreme implementation of the same flawed analytical framework. The outcome of the deflation vs. inflation debate is not cut and dry even to someone as learned as William White, and he himself has for decades implemented a barbell strategy of cash and property as a way to position for this uncertainty. Recorded on November 16, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Rohan Grey, president of Modern Money Network & doctoral fellow at Cornell Law, joins Santiago Velez, co-founder and R&D division lead for Block Digital, to discuss the controversial STABLE Act, the history of private and public monies, and the future of stable coins. Grey gives a detailed history lesson on money and its relationship to government. They talk through the key tenets of the STABLE Act and its implications for the crypto space over all and stable coins more specifically. Grey explains the differences between Central Bank Digital Currencies and E-Money and touches on the importance of privacy for financial transactions. Key Learnings: The government and public monies are strongly connected, and Grey believes that there are major systemic risks presented by assets aiming to disrupt the government's oversight of the issuance of its money with history providing strong evidence of these risks. For those investing in the crypto space, the passing of the STABLE Act may negatively impact certain types of stable coin projects as some may fall under the umbrella of this bill. Higher regulatory burdens may force some crypto projects to shutdown while those who are capable of meeting the higher bar may flourish with regulatory backing. Recorded on December 14, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Special Edition of Daily Briefing with Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison. They will answer audience questions, provide an update on what they're seeing in markets this holiday season, and look ahead to the opportunities and macro risks for 2021. Checkout Real Vision's newest podcasts : Ground Floor Consensus : apple podcast link : https://rvtv.io/3ri3RKD Between2Chains: Apple Podcast link : https://rvtv.io/2KAONXO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss the new fiscal package from Congress, the macro signals Tony has his eye on, and his outlook for the new year. Tony discusses how the spending package is insufficient, especially for American families, and describes the markets’ reaction as slightly “sell the fact” as made evident by the DXY’s modest but noticeable bounce. After Ash reviews some of the current data for COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S., Tony says that markets are still looking past this information and are more focused on the reopening. He also describes the relationship of the dollar and equities as it relates to the Fed’s modus operandi to create inflation with a weaker dollar. Finally, he shares the new opportunity that he sees emerging for U.S. financials, what he’s looking out for in the new year, and why he’s holding onto more dry powder during this holiday season. In the intro, editor Jack Farley covers Ripple's SEC investigation, U.S. bankruptcies, as well as market flow data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the grand finale to “The Big Picture,” Jason Buck speaks to Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital. Chris is one of the sharpest players in the volatility space and has made his name by playing risks and opportunities that others can’t see. An outspoken critic of the 60/40 equity/bond split, Chris is an advocate of what he calls “the dragon portfolio,” which consists of gold, long volatility, and commodity trend-following in addition to stocks and bonds. Chris gave a glimpse of the dragon portfolio when he spoke with Danielle DiMartino Booth on Real Vision in February 2020. Since then, volatility has exploded, both during the massive sell-off in March as well as in the shocking market melt-up since then. Simply put, the dragon has been unleashed. The twin risks of the left tail (deflationary deleveraging) and right tail (inflationary deleveraging) loom large. As Chris wrote in his 2020 report, "to thrive, we must embody the cosmic duality between the hawk and the serpent." For access to Chris’ 2020 report, “The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent: How to Grow and Preserve Wealth for 100 Years,” click here: https://docsend.com/view/taygkbn
Recorded on July 27, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision editor Jack Farley to break down his market outlook as stimulus talks draw to a close and an alarming new strain of COVID-19 spreads throughout the United Kingdom. Boockvar makes his case for why inflation will continue to rise alongside nominal yields in 2021, and he explains why this macro outlook leads him to look favorably upon commodities and value stocks that trade at significantly low price/earnings multiples since he expects multiples to compress across the equity landscape as nominal yields rise. Boockvar gives a strategic update on the state of the Fed's QE programs and argues that the expiration of the Fed's emergency lending programs is not unwelcome and, in fact, is overdue. Lastly, Boockvar shares with Farley several stocks on his radar, such as CVS Health Corp ($CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc ($WBA) as well as evaluates their future business prospect. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin monitors the markets as stimulus relief package passes in the US and a new strain of the coronavirus emerged in England, prompting fresh travel restrictions across Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, is one of the most legendary investors of all-time, short seller or otherwise. Even after an incredible bull run that has taken many short sellers out back behind the woodshed to be put down, he's still generating incredible alpha for his investors. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Chanos explains why we are in a golden age of fraud where the market fails to recognize frauds until the last minute. He also highlights the dynamic of growth-starved investors willing to throw money at any company that can demonstrate a large total addressable market (TAM) even if there is no demonstrable chance of profit. He cites business models like Uber and Grubhub as examples of the market's TAMSanity. He also touches on two of his highest conviction shorts, IBM and the commercial real estate sector, with IBM being described as the ultimate example of a COVID loser and commercial real estate being described as a "slow motion train wreck." Key Learnings: Investors wanting to get short must be cautious and manage risk as the market is not pricing in fraud until the last minute. As well, IBM should serve as an example of the types of companies who have failed to innovate and whose death has been accelerated by COVID. The writing is on the wall for commercial real estate and the debt and leverage in the industry can help investors determine the timing of its slow death as obligations will eventually have to be met.
Recorded on November 11, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For the past decade, Russell Napier has correctly called for disinflation, dissenting with the conventional wisdom that inflation is on horizon. Yet he has changed his mind, and in this conversation with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, Napier explains why he believes the inflationary tides, so long delayed, may soon arrive on the shores of currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Napier argues that fiscal authorities are, via macroprudential regulation, essentially compelling commercial banks to lend and are also requiring them to hold unattractive assets such as negative yielding debt. This new force, Napier continues, will succeed where quantitative easing (QE) has failed in expanding commercial bank balance sheets. Johnson and Napier analyze how this new potential regime will impact affect pensioners, students, and savers as well as how it will shape the destiny of every asset class ranging from equities to Treasurys, from European bank debt to currencies, and from mortgage-backed securities to fine art. . For more charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lsOdZw and https://rvtv.io/36BS7cC. Key learnings: Rapid growth of the money supply coupled with low inventories could push the U.S. into a reflationary whirlwind. Napier has an inflation target of 4% for the OECD because he believes macroprudential regulation will compel large financial institutions to lend and hold dubious assets to an unprecedented degree. This view is not necessarily bearish for the dollar, nor for emerging market (EM) currencies, which might prove more resilient than many anticipate. But, it does spell trouble for the Euro, which is already in a bad way. Recorded on November 11, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his market wrap-up of 2020. They monitor the price dislocations at the close as the S&P 500 was under pressure all day ahead of Tesla’s historic entry into the index. Pal looks back at the year that was from equities to the bond market to crypto to gold, silver and copper. He sees emerging markets breaking out in 2021, specifically identifying opportunities in Iran. In the intro, Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin touches upon Coinbase filing for an IPO as Bitcoin surges to all-time.
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Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors joins Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, to share his market outlook as U.S. equities yet again reach all-time highs. Green breaks down the current market structure, looking at how changes to order book depth and inter-asset correlations present investment risks. Green and Bennington discuss commodities, passive investing, and the Fed’s latest FOMC meeting, with Green sharing his outlook on inflation and interest rates. Lastly, Bennington asks Green his views on crypto-assets and particularly Bitcoin, which continues to surge immensely. In the intro, editor Jack Farley jobless reports on today’s jobless claims, the status of U.S. fiscal stimulus, and Tesla’s looming entry into the S&P 500. The paper by Rob Arnott on Tesla, which Jack mentions, can be found here: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/819-tesla-the-largest-cap-stock-ever.html?evar36=eml_tesla-hero-title&_cldee=amFja0ByZWFsdmlzaW9uLmNvbQ%3d%3d&recipientid=contact-a2eae8d2e63beb1180f1b4c5161772f1-63905c439f0c42899407aad7822ace65&esid=0498153a-6840-eb11-80f1-b4c5161772f1. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Managing Editor Ed Harrison and Editor Max Wiethe discuss the next turn of the rotation trade and the few crumbs of information served up from today's Fed meeting. Ed and Max begin by briefly addressing today’s Fed FOMC meeting where, almost no majors changes were announced and focus on the updated summary of economic projections. They then examine the bull case for the next leg of the rotation trade and the argument that its geography could be much different than the prior leg. They also discuss a few recent market anomalies surrounding algorithmic trading, as well as the recent onslaught of IPOs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision’s Jack Farley, who is filling in for Dave Floyd. Jack and Ash break down the rising volumes of put option contracts on DoorDash, and the announcement that Blade Urban Air Mobility will go public in 2021 via a SPAC. Ash then provides his analysis on COVID-19 hospitalizations and Georgia’s elections. Lastly, Ash and Jack discuss big tech valuations and preview this week’s interviews. In the intro, Haley Draznin updates viewers on REITs and Congress’ stimulus progress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the growing corporate debt crisis. Ed and Jack discuss the latest report from the Group of Thirty, which finds that balance sheet impairment will complicate economic recovery and persist long after this pandemic ends. Ed crystallizes the risks into three separate categories—pandemic-related, economic, and financial—and incorporates these risks into Raoul’s framework on the “insolvency phase." Ed and Jack also discuss fiscal aid, sector rotation, and lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the joyous news of the beginnings of vaccine distribution in the U.S., AstraZeneca's announcement to acquire Alexion Pharmaceuticals, and the sterling's rally on renewed Brexit trade negotiations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Acclaimed financial advisor Ric Edelman, founder of the RIA Digital Assets Council (www.riadac.com) and Edelman Financial Engines, the #1 RIA firm in the nation according to Barron’s, talks with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about the barriers preventing financial managers and investors from buying bitcoin and how the crypto community can gain mass adoption. Edelman explains the benefits of adding Bitcoin to a diversified portfolio, shares his approach to investing in digital assets, and reveals his expectations for a Bitcoin ETF. All this and more, recorded Nov. 30, 2020. Key Learnings: Due to the slow progress of an official Bitcoin ETF, there are significant barriers to entry for financial managers to give their clients exposure to this asset class. Edelman explains how these barriers will eventually be removed. As Bitcoin provides valuable diversification for portfolios where traditional allocations may no longer generate satisfactory returns and hedge risk in the current market environment, there is an urgent need for investors to become educated about the crypto asset class as it approaches mainstream adoption. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
James Litinsky, founder and CEO of MP Materials ($MP), is joined by Real Vision editor Jack Farley to discuss his mission to restore to North America the rare earth supply chain, which for decades has been dominated by China. Litinsky highlights the critical role rare earth elements are playing in the economy of the future, explaining their uses in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other markets that are set to dramatically expand. After Litinsky shares his experience in MP Materials’ going public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), he and Farley discuss the properties of MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine that make it uniquely able to produce rare earth concentrate at a low cost and in an environmentally-friendly manner. Lastly, Litinsky, a former hedge fund manager, puts back on his "investor" hat to share his macro framework. For the Real Vision "Discoveries" documentary on the Mountain Pass mine, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/discoveries/videos/the-rare-earth-metal-megatrend. For more about MP Materials, click here: https://mpmaterials.com/. Recorded on December 2, 2020. Key Learnings: Litinsky believes rare earths are an effective "picks and shovels" play on the exponential growth of electric vehicles (EVs), since all electric vehicles require Neodymium Praseodymium (NdPr) magnets to power their motors, and since EV stocks are priced to perfection and are largely in the pre-profit stage (and in some cases, pre-revenue). Litinsky argues that the rich ore body of the Mountain Pass mine best positions MP Materials to command market share, calling the mine "the Saudi Arabia of Rare Earths." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss water futures, “bubblicious” market froth, and potential anti-competitive behavior by Big Tech. After Ed and Ash give their brief review of political news, Ed shares his analysis of the recent IPOs of DoorDash and Airbnb with Ash noting parallels between current market conditions and those that preceded the Dot-com bubble. Ed and Ash then explore the significance of the recent addition of water futures to the CME exchange. In the intro, Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura embark on a chart-filled journey on the Nikkei 225, the Japanese Yen, and currency pairs. For greater details and more charts from Weston and Jack, check out their conversation in the Real Vision Exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/follow-up-to-my-daily-briefing-intro-with-weston-nakamura-s-galore-5fd3f00fffc3b852f6b03a2b. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the market exuberance around this week’s IPOs, DeMarc indicators, and his forward outlook. Thornton elaborates on why the speculative bubble surrounding the IPOs for DoorDash and Airbnb is worrisome and too volatile to either long or short at this point. He also dives into DeMarc indicators, sharing what they are and how he analyzes markets and crafts investing strategies around their use. Thornton then talks about what his outlook in light of a true reopening is for oil, financials, cyclicals, and tech. Harrison and Thornton end on discussing the DXY and currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the jobless claims spike after the Thanksgiving week and the higher than expected valuations of Airbnb and Doordash going public. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to put today’s market selloff in context of the broader bullish attitudes that have prevailed amid trouble in the real economy. They also highlight individual stories from the week like DoorDash's and Airbnb’s IPOs and Tesla’s successful $5 billion dilutive offering as examples of this market favoring corporate managers above all else. Beyond equity markets, Ed and Max touch on the steepening yield curve as another bullish signal and address the knock-on effects for real yields and gold as well as the conflicting signal being sent by a weak dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to delve into the day’s trading and explore where markets are currently at. With Joe Biden becoming President-Elect and the race for a vaccine coming closer to the end, markets have changed their tune, and Greer explains how the rotation trade is continuing to be sustained due to the markets’ vision of a vaccinated world. Greer also considers how the virtualization of society due to the pandemic will have enduring effects in the way people live and work and what that implies for new market trends such as the recent abundance of tech IPOs. Greer shares his thoughts on why the Fed will continue to only address the recovery through asset price inflation, and he discusses what this means for various asset classes. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the K-shaped recovery in the housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the froth of the market and explore whether it will boil over. Ed analyzes the significance of the Smart Money Index’s (SMI) hitting a one-year low, and Jack gives a snapshot of the roaring U.S. credit markets. Ed looks at the ongoing efforts to distribute the vaccine in the U.K. and ponders the rotation trade from growth to value stocks, as electric vehicle makers surge and cloud technology stocks remain exorbitantly priced, by historical metrics. Ed discusses Tesla’s eclipsing of Berkshire Hathaway in market capitalization, a phenomenon which Ed sees as the epitome of the market’s current zeal for flashy, growthy names. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reviews price action and stimulus hopes, as well as a slew of upcoming IPOs, including DoorDash and AirBnb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Thomas Kaplan, chairman of The Electrum Group and executive chairman of Panthera Corporation, joins Rick Rule, President & CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings, to discuss the opportunities he sees at this juncture for precious metals and precious metals miners. After Kaplan regales Rule with tales of his epic call on silver in 1992, which turned many heads including that of George Soros, Kaplan shares why he believes gold offers a "generational opportunity" in 2020 that can offer 10x-20x returns. As developing nations threaten to nationalize mines, Kaplan has allocated away from emerging markets to concentrate his investments in America, Canada, and Australia, warning simply that the "era of the frontier mentality is over." Key takeaways: Opportunities in precious metals are many and promising, but jurisdictional risks lurk. Kaplan sees nationalization of mines as a major threat in emerging markets, warning that the "era of the frontier mentality is over." Recorded On : Oct 26, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision viewers should be well acquainted with Mike Green's research into how big passive funds are responsible for many of the “distasteful” dynamics that have perplexed and enraged market participants over the last few years, but they may still be wondering how they can actually use this in constructing a portfolio. In this interview, Green sits down with up and coming hedge fund manager Dan McMurtrie of Tyro Partners to discuss how Dan has managed to successfully implement this research into his portfolio construction and security selection process. They also discuss the power of doing favors, McMurtrie’s unconventional path to building his fund, and how he has used twitter and good old-fashioned happy hours to develop an incredible network of mentors and colleagues. Dan McMurtrie can be found on a twitter @supermugatu and Mike Green can be found @profplum99. Key Learnings: Investors need to think about who the next marginal buyer is going to be to drive a stock higher, and although this doesn't mean that fundamentals and technicals should be ignored, increasingly flows need to be considered when thinking about security selection. This can result in "distasteful" decisions that go against long held beliefs about value and what should drive the price of a security. Recorded on Oct 26 , 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington (“Cash Pennington”) hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s dismal data on the state of the U.S. labor market. Ed and Ash put in context the non-farm payroll figures, released today, and contrast this dreadful print with the rally in U.S. equities. After reflecting on what these job numbers means for the yield curve and interest rate margins, Ed and Ash conduct an even-handed analysis of the worsening data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. In the intro, editor Jack Farley explores why the investors seem convinced that the adverse jobs data is actually good news for the stock market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision editor Max Wiethe is joined by both Jack Farley and Ed Harrison in this multi-part edition of The Daily Briefing. In part one, Jack and Max discuss the swirling optimism and pessimism surrounding reopening favorites like airlines and movie theaters and debate whether these industries and others like commercial real estate are in store for a new normal post-COVID. In part two, Ed Harrison returns to update his rough winter thesis in light of today’s positive surprise in jobs data and the renewed hopes for fiscal stimulus as news of good-faith bipartisan discussions and support from President Trump for slimmed down stimulus indicate a potential for more positive surprises. As well, they look forward at the pitfalls that still remain and tomorrow's more important jobs report. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin digs deeper into today’s jobless claims number to analyze why the weekly jobless claims fell last week after rising for two consecutive weeks and what this means for the labor market's recovery. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to discuss the potentially negative jobs data that Ed is watching out for later this week. Harrison also highlights the four fiscal cliffs between now and the inauguration that could potentially cause permanent economic damage and undermine the optimism surrounding the vaccine rotation trade. They also discuss the importance of perceived duration in how certain assets react to these surprises in real economic data. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the new ADP numbers, the latest data on the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., the U.K.'s emergency-use authorization of Pfizer and BioNTech SE's vaccine, and president-elect Biden's nominations for key economic positions in his administration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bleakley Advisor Group CIO Peter Boockvar joins senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss a potentially higher inflationary environment for 2021 and why that may put central banks and markets at odds. Boockvar reviews this year’s market trends and dissects the latest ISM manufacturing data, pointing out reports of supply chain disruptions, labor cost pressures, and a general rise in inflation. With markets looking past recent COVID-19 data with promising vaccine announcements, value is growing increasingly attractive here in the U.S., the U.K., Europe, and Asia. However, Boockvar explains his concerns of markets tightening with the onset of growth and whether the Fed will choose to let the yield curve steepen or prevent it. As CPI increases are the kryptonite of central banks, should the inflation narrative take hold, Boockvar expresses how this may shock global bond markets. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explores the deep dichotomy between the real economy and equity markets, as all major U.S. indices were up today despite Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin shutting down the Fed's emergency loan programs for main street businesses. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to evaluate the value rotation trade and the challenges it will face in the coming months. As November comes to a close – a month that saw record-breaking appreciation in value stocks, cyclicals, and small-caps – Ed and Jack analyzes how rising COVID-19 hospitalizations will impact economic behavior. They then look at liquidity going forward, and how monetary conditions will affect markets over the next few months, incorporating Ed’s interview with Michael Howell and Jack’s upcoming interview with Teddy Vallee. Ed and Jack close by discussing the Government Accountability Office’s report on incorrect jobless claims data, as well as GM’s partial back-pedaling out of its deal with controversial electric vehicle manufacturer Nikola. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Robert Sharratt, managing director at Cresco Fin, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss how crypto is disrupting the traditional banking system and how Cresco Fin is leveraging crypto to provide a higher rate of return on investor savings. Sharratt explains the approach Cresco Fin has taken to provide yield on crypto assets, while also providing insurance, making it comparable to traditional bank accounts. Filmed on November 23, 2020. Key Learnings: We are entering a new era of banking ushered in by blockchain technology. Many new companies are utilizing crypto infrastructure to provide enhanced benefits to their depositors. Providing insured yield on crypto assets may be the next major transition for both crypto and banking companies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers launches his new series with one of his favorite topics, China, and one of his favorite experts, Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research. In this interview that fringes on debate at times, Gave and Green attack the question of whether the U.S. or China is better positioned since the beginning of the COVID crisis. As well, they discuss a topic they can agree on from Gave's most recent pieces from Gavekal Research, "The Guiding Principle of Our Time". In this piece, Gave lays out the argument that decision making from politics to markets is being driven by one simple factor -- C.Y.A., or "cover your ass". Viewers can find this piece in full here: https://rvtv.io/3oePjKe. Filmed on October 20, 2020. Key Learnings: China not responding to COVID with rate cuts and massive fiscal stimulus has consequences for currency strength, foreign investment flows, and real interest rates. Viewers will come away with an understanding of the important factors to pay attention to when determining whether the U.S. will continue its global dominance or if this is the beginning of a new Chinese century. Recorded on Oct 20, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss the all-time highs set on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on this holiday-shortened trading day in U.S. equity markets. Harrison and Bennington also take a step back to evaluate the broader context for rising stock prices during the month of November. Specifically, the pair explores the apparent recent decrease of political risk in the U.S., the impact of increasing case counts and virus fatalities, the potential effects of a Covid-19 vaccine on the global economic climate, and the risk of future lockdowns and growing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Jack Farley for a Thanksgiving “Ask Me Anything” special edition of the Daily Briefing. Sourcing questions from the Real Vision Exchange, Jack asks Ed questions about whether the U.S. will enter a second round of lockdowns, and whether the equity market could once again undergo a major crash. Ed shares his views on the future of debt, deflation, and commodities, over the next 30 years, as well as his technique learning new languages. Jack and Ed share the ways in which they follow market news, as well as their views on the difference between accounting antics and downright fraud. Lastly, Jack and Ed give an inside look at Real Vision’s ongoing mission to democratize finance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Max Wiethe and Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, discuss Ed's outlook for a winter double-dip recession in the U.S. and the most important questions for determining the breadth, depth, and market implications of this prediction. How bad will the pandemic get before this wave can be arrested? How severe an economic brake will have to occur to get the virus under control? What short- and long-term impact will this have on businesses? What can policymakers do to mitigate downside risk and prevent worst-case outcomes? How will all of this feed through into asset markets? In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin, examines the juxtaposition between the markets hitting record highs and the broader economy as initial jobless claims rise for a second week in a row. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to make sense of today’s price action as the equity markets roar to all-time highs. After the pair briefly discusses the significance of the news that Janet Yellen will likely be named Treasury Secretary, Tony shares his analysis on the value rotation away from the tech giants into cyclical reflation plays like banks, casinos, hotels, and energy. As Tony says, “the world is getting back in business”. Ash and Tony then look the performance of Bitcoin as it approaches its 2017 highs, and explore the future of gold as an inflation hedge. Lastly, Tony gives an update on his trades in the cannabis sector. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin analyzes the market rally to record highs as the Dow surpasses 30,000 for the first time ever and looks into the anticipated rebound in the economy for the second half of 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision editor Jack Farley hosts Tyler Neville of Real Vision for a spirited debate about the fate of risk assets. Tyler makes the case that U.S. equities have a lot more room to run, basing his case on tight credit spreads and the Federal Reserve’s ever-expanding balance sheet. Tyler incorporates market breadth as well as venture capital funding to argue that the punch bowl may never be removed. Jack challenges Tyler’s bullish thesis, asking Tyler about the upcoming expiration of the Fed’s emergency lending programs and the possibility that the holiday season will accelerate the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Jack and Tyler then explore the future of so-called “zombie companies,” whose liabilities have swelled to over $1.2 trillion. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin analyzes the promising developments of a coronavirus vaccine, how it impacts the markets, and why some sectors will benefit a lot more than others. For charts from Tyler as well as Jack, click here: https://rvtv.io/2URRNAH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes back Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, to analyze how divergent indicators in inflation and growth are revealing trading signals for bonds, commodities, and equities going forward. McCullough breaks down his "Quad"-based investment process, going in greater depth on how "risk ranges" affect his trading across various asset classes such as corn, Chinese and Spanish equities, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Pal and McCullough explore how investors should think about liquidity risks, position sizing, and risk allocation, and the two discuss the role of these factors during a time with such confounding economic data. Filmed on October 21, 2020. Key Learnings: The interplay of volatility, volume and price offers asymmetric opportunities across all asset classes. The rate of change of inflation and growth can be an effective way to determine when to bet on high-conviction trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bill Campbell, portfolio manager for Global Bond Strategy at DoubleLine Capital, sits down with Ed Harrison to discuss how he is making sense of the massive paradigm shift to central bank digital currencies. Campbell argues that central banks are late to the party as over 95% of global transactions are already digital, and together they explore the potential for bilateral digital currency settlement to replace the SWIFT system and put downward pressure on the dollar. They also discuss how CBDCs could upend the banking system as traditional revenue centers like cross border payments and custody of assets are muscled in on by central banks. Campbell also touches on how CBDCs could change the way that fiscal and monetary policy is conducted, leading to even more debasement of fiat money and why he thinks there is still one final move lower for yields left in the bond market. Filmed on October 30, 2020. Bill Campbell has written extensively on the topic and viewers can find links to his two most recent papers here: https://doubleline.com/dl/wp-content/uploads/Bilateral-Digital-Currency-Payments-October-2020.pdf and https://doubleline.com/2020/10/the-pandoras-box-of-central-bank-digital-currencies-bill-campbell-october-2020/. Key Learnings: Central bank digital currencies are visible on the horizon, and their roll-out will have a huge effect on how monetary and fiscal policy are conducted, the viability of the banking system as it exists today, and the way that global trade is settled and the value of the U.S. dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With a phenomenal investment track record greater than perhaps even Warren Buffett and George Soros, Joel Greenblatt is renowned as one of the world's greatest investors in history. Yet recently, he has turned his gaze beyond markets to focus his attention on fixing problems in society, ranging from banking and retirement to education and even immigration. In this interview with managing editor Ed Harrison, Greenblatt discusses his common sense solutions to society's ills, using the same analytical framework that brought him tremendous success in the investment world. Greenblatt also shares his investment philosophy and current market outlook. Recorded on October 19, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the economic impact of the partial lockdowns U.S. officials are implementing day-by-day as cases and deaths from COVID-19 spiral out of control. Ed evaluates the latest rise in joblessness claims, the exponential increase in hospitalizations, the looming expiration of the CARES Act, and the Fed’s emergency lending programs, ultimately concluding that a double-dip recession in the U.S. could be on the horizon. Lastly, Jack and Ed discuss China’s first negative-yielding bond (denominated in Euros) as well as Bitcoin’s continued surge. In the intro, Haley Draznin looks at the increase in U.S. jobless claims filed this week and its broader implications on the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the opportunities and risks on the investment horizon. Tommy explores whether the ongoing rotation into value will continue, sharing his views on sectors such as energy, financials, and retail. He and Ed then investigate whether bonds’ rally is a harbinger of trouble for stocks, and how various asset classes such as gold and bitcoin perform should there be a major selloff in the equity market. Lastly, Tommy discusses why he remains bearish on Tesla despite its significant rally, and shares his fundamental analysis of the electric vehicle maker as well as his framework for managing risk. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at oil futures, vaccine progress, and MTA’s woes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group back to the Daily Briefing to evaluate price action in the S&P 500, the U.S. 10 year Treasury note, and a variety of currency pairs. Dave shares his framework for trading these asset classes, incorporating technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastic oscillators, relative strength indicators, Fibonacci retracement levels as well as some proprietary trading signals from Aspen Trading Group. Dave and Ash discuss how the relationship between price to volume can reveal “footprints” in various markets to identify inflection points. Finally, Dave shares his own views on the psychology of trading such as knowing when to be cautious and when to pull the trigger. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explains why the markets fell on Tuesday after record highs on Monday, looking closely at the timeline for a vaccine, uptick in coronavirus cases, Tesla moving to the S&P 500 from the Nasdaq, and US retail sales missing expectations. To sign-up to Real Vision to watch these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/paradigm-shift Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the all-time highs being set in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the news of Moderna’s vaccine being 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19 breathes life into U.S. equities. Ed evaluates the price action through his risk-on framework, exploring the possibility that record cash on the sidelines, held by central banks, households, as well as private equity firms, could further buoy markets. He and Ash then discuss how the increasing lockdowns across the U.S. will likely stymie growth, weighing how these opposing forces will impact markets going forward. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action in equity and volatility markets and shows a clip from Mike Green’s interview with Jim Chanos, the first interview in Real Vision's series “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux.” To sign-up to Real Vision to watch these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/paradigm-shift Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management are both keenly focused on the complex task of discerning China's economic reality. In this interview, Bass and Pettis attack the important issues of capital flight, China's massive economic inequality, and their domestic debt burden, just to name a few. They both tend to agree on what is most important, but not always the takeaway from the data. It is the nuanced differences in their interpretations of the current state of affairs that had even Kyle Bass remarking at how much he was able to take away from this enlightening and pleasantly civil back and forth. Recorded on October 7, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has evolved his investment style over the years, and although he is still the "bond king", increasingly he has become multi-asset with a focus on getting the macro right. In this interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, Gundlach explains how he thinks about time frames, position sizing based on asset class, and how his style changes based on whether the market is alpha or beta driven. He also provides his current outlook, arguing that there is not much opportunity in this environment and that the most important thing at the moment is managing risk while patiently waiting for the next big trade. He also touches on timely topics like the potential for a wave of insolvency, why he believes we are in the midst of The Fourth Turning, his skeptical view of bitcoin, and why he is bullish on the dollar in the short term despite his highest conviction macro view being pronounced dollar weakness. Recorded on October 1, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the growing shutdown measures in the U.S. even as the S&P 500 makes all-time highs. Looking at declining mobility data, Pal explores how the prospect of a full lockdown in the U.S will depress economic activity as well as perhaps markets. He and Ash then discuss default risk and the stock sales of Pfizer’s CEO before zooming out into macro issues such as how stagnant money velocity affects retirees and how rise in the monetary base could buoy precious metals and bitcoin. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action, evaluates the distress of cruise liners, and the looming expiration of the Fed’s emergency lending programs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down a day of heavy selling across sectors as COVID-19 cases surge to unseen levels. Ed interprets what the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index means and shares his views on how, shutdown or not, the rise of coronavirus will likely depress economic activity. Ed and Jack discuss the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield and the heavy selling of value equities, with Jack asking Ed whether the rotation into value will resurge or is in fact over. After quickly reviewing price action in volatility markets, Ed and Jack give a sneak peek of the “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux” featuring Jim Chanos, Mike Green, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Kyle Bass, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, William White, and many other legends of the investment world. In the intro, Peter Cooper explores the current state of the coronavirus epidemic in the States and reviews the jobless claims report that came out today. For the charts that Ed and Jack discuss, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lrQLY0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, break down the pausing of the rotation out of growth and into value as cases and hospitalization in the U.S. surge to unseen levels. Ash breaks down Bill Ackman’s hedge against investment grade credit, and Ed explores how much central bank liquidity there is on the sidelines waiting to buoy asset prices. The pair also discuss taxes, the outcome of the U.S. elections, as well as Ed’s upcoming interview with Michael Howell. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at credit spreads and gives a sneak peek of Real Vision’s upcoming interview series with investing legends such as Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, Jim Chanos, Kiril Sokoloff, Sam Zell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Raoul Pal, Kyle Bass, and Russell Napier. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest euphoric episode in markets. Greer discusses how the rotation in the markets demonstrates their renewed focus on a post-pandemic world as the pattern from the last several months of trading is coming undone. He shares his thoughts on the appropriate balance of a political perspective to a market outlook, where inflation will begin to crop up under a Biden administration, and trades he’s paying attention to in energy, tech, commodities, and more. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at how the markets have reacted to potential vaccine news and how big tech companies across the globe, like Amazon and Alibaba, have become a major focus for regulators. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
NOTE: THIS DAILY BRIEFING WAS FILMED THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5. Fielding questions from Real Vision subscribers, senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, analyze how the various outcomes of the 2020 U.S. election will impact markets. Ash and Ed talk about the future of Real Vision content, price action across bitcoin, bonds, and equities, and the likely underperformance of the 60/40 portfolio should the economy enter a cyclical downturn. Ash and Ed analyze how the prospect of divided government (i.e., a Biden presidency coinciding with a Republican senate) will affect earnings potential and fiscal stimulus. They also share their views on potential cabinets picks for the next U.S. President. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Howard Lindzon, general partner at Social Leverage, tells Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal why he is bullish on the digital future of business despite acknowledging the harsh economic realities that have emerged since COVID. Lindzon argues that there is a shortage of investible opportunities to capitalize on this trend and this is what we are seeing in stretched tech valuations. He also discusses how he has bet on the democratization of finance with his investments in StockTwits, Robinhood, and eToro and explains why he is still not sold on crypto despite being exposed to the space. Filmed on September 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Kiril Sokoloff sits down with Raoul Pal to discuss why he believes the bull market for precious metals is only in its fourth inning. All-in costs of gold production are under $1000 compared to the current price of $1900, creating profit margins never seen before in the industry. In effect, the gold mining companies have become free-cash flow machines. With US federal deficits growing as far as the eye can see, and the US owing more to the rest of the world than any nation in history, a dollar crisis is brewing, which will launch gold on the next leg of its bull market. Filmed on October 16, 2020. Key Learnings: Gold and gold miners are under-owned, misunderstood, and the beneficiary of many other current economic and financial trends. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, review this past week’s “everything rally” and key macro indicators against the backdrop of political uncertainty and COVID-19. Ed explains the two different narratives around the market rally — either the markets’ growing comfort over a split government or the markets had priced in more chaos that hasn’t yet come to fruition. He then also breaks down the narrative of a backpedaling economic recovery that the bond market and the macro indicators such as the ISM reports and jobs reports are reinforcing. Ash and Ed also touch on whether we’ll return to a high hospitalization and death rate with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and reiterates how the social response and the durable changes to demand are not driven by policy alone. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin walks us through the October jobs report, how it exceeded expectations and its impact on the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by Jay Pelosky, co-founder and CIO of TPW Investment Management, to provide an update on his current outlook amid a turbulent election and uncertain future with stimulus and COVID-19. Pelosky argues that markets are getting closer to end of this period of peak uncertainty around these variables and that deep cyclicals like airlines and oil will rally sharply higher. Pelosky also explains that as the election race comes to a close, markets have been oversold in the past week and are becoming more comfortable with the idea of a split government as investors gain clarity. He digs further into the question of stimulus - a matter of “when,” not “if” - and contends that a vaccine may roll out sooner than stimulus, which would cause the markets to react aggressively, raise rates, and could set up a rotation trade out of tech and into cyclicals. Finally, he also discusses asset allocation and his thesis of a tripolar world. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at markets rallying as the U.S. presidential election outcome is still uncertain and analyzes the K-shaped recovery that continues to form as the job market remains high. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In light of the market rally along with election uncertainty today, Ash Bennington & Ed Harrison ask, "just what exactly are the markets celebrating?" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, to break down the hidden forces driving markets on U.S. election day. Disagreeing with the linear narratives about how election results impact markets, Krishnan instead analyzes the market plumbing, looking at the trend spike in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, interest rate volatility, and the likely forced selling options dealers’ will have to conduct should the S&P 500 start to show weakness. After Krishnan shares with Bennington his theory explaining the “kink” in the VIX futures curve, he imparts the following advice to traders: “never panic.” In the intro, reporter Haley Draznin breaks down investor optimism in global equities, the impact of high turnout of U.S. voters, and the halting of Ant Group’s massive I.P.O. Recorded on Nov 3, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Tommy Thornton, president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to break down his framework for trading markets as the U.S. Presidential election rapidly approaches. Thornton looks at market sentiment and trader positioning, concluding that investors are net long this market, which limits upside potential, with extremely low short interest. Bennington and Thornton explore price action in European markets and look forward to vaccine news. Thornton then describes several trades he sees in cannabis and coffee, advising viewers on the value of holding dry powder as well as not getting sucked into narratives. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at Europe’s lockdowns, election odds, and price action in the credit markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Michael Saylor, chairman & CEO of MicroStrategy Inc., joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to discuss MicroStrategy’s major Bitcoin acquisitions. Saylor describes his background, what led up to the creation of MicroStrategy, and its recent push to bring Bitcoin into the corporate world. He explains his first encounter with cryptocurrencies and how his views on it have evolved over the years. Saylor touches on the power and value of Bitcoin and its unique utility of being able to convey “100 million dollars across 100 years.” Finally, Saylor shares how they store the Bitcoin owned by MicroStrategy and the timeline of the investment. Filmed on September 16, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Not only is art one of the oldest asset classes in the world, but it also is one of the best performing. In this interview with Real Vision’s Max Wiethe, Scott Lynn, CEO of Masterworks, makes the case for investing in “blue-chip art” and explains how his company is bringing this asset class traditionally reserved for the ultra-rich to a whole new cohort of investors. Together, Lynn and Wiethe discuss “blue-chip art” and how not all artists are made the same when it comes to the returns, explore the art market’s relative outperformance and correlations with other asset classes, and finally how Masterworks’ new business model, allowing investors to buy shares of art from some of the world’s most famous artists, is completely changing the market. See important information: masterworks.io/disclaimer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Strauss Zelnick, chairman and CEO of Take-Two Interactive and partner at ZMC, joins headhunter Christian Alexander of Macro Link to share the lessons he learned on his journey to the top of the media world. Take-Two Interactive is one of the largest gaming companies, and its stock is up over 900% since Zelnick became its CEO in 2011. Zelnick discusses his investment philosophy and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the film business, the music business, and the video game business. He also analyzes various secular trends on his radar including the widespread adoption of big data usage, a trend he calls "the data explosion." Recorded on September 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, welcomes Stephen Kalayjian, chief market strategist of Ticker Tocker, to discuss the elevated levels of volatility and his forward outlook for markets over the coming months. With the U.S. election coming up in less than a week, Kalayjian describes how not only are markets are being worn down by the torrent of uncertainty surrounding policy outcomes with each respective administration, but also by how the sensitivity of this year’s election and the events that will unfold in the coming weeks are keeping markets on edge with COVID-19 exacerbating tensions further. He explains where he sees the opportunities and downside risk in U.S. equities in light of these circumstances and why the perception of economic growth in large cap tech stocks will propel their prices up further for the rest of 2020 through the beginning of 2021. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes the U.S. economy's record GDP growth, but explains the real obstacles going forward that will slow the recovery, perhaps severely. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison for a special edition of the Daily Briefing. Ed gives an update on his thesis, now that U.S. and European equities have continued to tumble, and analyzes how the halting of economic activity in Europe will likely cause a double dip recession that is very bad for risk assets. Ash breaks down the COVID-19 data on cases, deaths, and hospitalizations, and he and Ed look forward to see whether this past six months of economic recovery is nothing more than an “interregnum” or a “head fake.” Recorded on Oct 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of price action in equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Tony reviews Monday’s rout in U.S. stocks and corresponding pop in the VIX, and explores why FX volatility was so low. He and Ash then discuss Bitcoin’s surge upon the news that Paypal is allowing bitcoin transactions on its platform. They look at durable goods orders, oil, gold, as well as investigating how big central bank balance sheets might get going forward. Lastly, Tony shares his view on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential election might affect markets. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at home sales, mall foreclosures, and “lender-on-lender” violence in the credit markets. Recorded On: Oct 27 , 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk through the social, political, and economic ramifications of the various U.S. presidential election outcomes in tandem with the risk of a more forceful and perhaps lethal second wave of COVID-19. Ash and Ed discuss how the policy outcomes in a Biden administration are more limited than what a Trump administration would be such as the fate of FAANG and Trump’s recent executive order regarding the dismissal of civil servants. They also consider what would happen to stimulus after the election, how markets have priced in a blue wave and how the outcome could be deviations away from expectations, and what the policy response might be to a rise in hospitalizations. Ed also explains the impact the hysteresis effect could have on the economy and consumers as well as how that may lead to more durable consumption changes post-COVID. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes China’s Ant Group raising $34 billion, making it the largest IPO in history. Filmed on Oct 26, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, breaks down the events leading to the recent tidal wave of interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies. He touches on the various crises that have encouraged the rampant printing by central banks and the destructive consequences this has left in its wake. Touting Bitcoin as the unkillable “cockroach of finance” and the life raft for this transitional period in history, Raoul sees CBDCs as the killer of stable coins and the start of a new era in the world of monetary and fiscal policy - the first major steps of technology eating the traditional finance world. Pal says that all of the macro signals are pointing towards a major shift in how the system is run. He cites the allowance of banking custody for crypto assets by regulators, major corporate treasuries investing in Bitcoin, and new types of banks, such as Kraken, all as pivotal events in the coming shift to a digital asset world. Filmed on October 18, 2020. Aired on October 19, 2020 Reserve your spot for Real Vision Crypto launching soon... http://rvtv.io/CryptoTierLaunch Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Are charter schools a wise addition to your investment portfolio? Charter schools receive less public funding from local and state taxes and federal programs than their district school counterparts, so they seek private funding in efforts to be able to operate to their fullest capacity. Programs like the New Market Tax Credit (NMTC) and opportunity zones provide several incentives for holding investments in charter schools. This type of impact investing also pays back in good deed as investors in charter schools have the satisfaction of knowing that their investments better education for America’s children. Eva Moskowitz, founder and CEO of Success Academy, the largest and highest-performing free, public charter school network in New York City, opens up about how she is reimagining public education and how the network has had to adapt to remote learning amid the coronavirus pandemic. Filmed on October 15, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, arrives to the Daily Briefing frothing at the mouth with Bitcoin bullishness. Senior editor, Ash Bennington, tries in vain to contain Raoul’s enthusiasm, but with Bitcoin up over 20% this month, Raoul’s zeal simply cannot be restrained, and he proceeds to go at length about how this asset will become a global reserve asset as the world moves along an adoption curve of trust. Raoul and Ash proceed to discuss the ongoing progress to make crypto-assets easier to own for RIAs and institutional investors, and Raoul reflects on the relative risk/reward profile of bitcoin at a time with record low bond yields and a stock market at all-time highs. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down the new Frankenstein of the fixed income world: the CLO ETF. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, talks to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, about some of the most recent macroeconomic data releases such as jobless claims and existing home sales and what they portend for the economy. Boockvar also explains why recent comments from the Fed and the level on the 10-year Treasury bond matter. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes the surge in corporate bonds as companies have done so much refinancing in one year and she looks at the new jobless claims out today which are at the lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic hit in March. What this means: The macro is telling Boockvar to watch for an uptick in cyclical inflation and he’s using it in conjunction with bottoms-up analysis to build a portfolio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to discuss the art of portfolio construction and his current outlook on markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on why investors whose sole focus is on returns fail and how to structure a portfolio that properly accounts for risk. He also breaks down how he gets exposure in real estate as well as how he’s thinking about the implications of the Fed backstopping the credit markets. Dillian also covers his thoughts on Bitcoin, time horizons, U.S. election outcomes, and trend following. In the intro, Real VIsion’s Nick Correa share the latest CEO confidence numbers and the next big, potential SPAC deal between Michael Bloomberg and Bill Ackman. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss earnings, stimulus intervention, and investment time horizons. Thornton talks about how, despite stronger Q3 earnings, Q4 could demonstrate a pullback and whether the upcoming U.S. election could serve as a catalyst either to upside or downside. He also shares his thoughts on stimulus intervention and the hazards of MMT as well as on how he thinks about managing positions and time horizons. Thornton and Bennington also touch on the energy and financials sectors and how the election outcome could affect these sectors. Thornton also describes how he analyzes different sectors through technical indicators and how technicals enhance the way he invests. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin breaks down the markets reaction as lawmakers continue efforts to reach a spending bill and weighs in on the Fed’s cautious approach to possibly issuing digital currency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by managing editor, Ed Harrison, to interpret how the rising COVID-19 infections in Europe and the U.S. will impact markets. Ed conducts a deep dive on best practices for containing the virus while mitigating the economic damage, reviewing protocols in Norway, Sweden, Belgium, and New Zealand, and Ash looks at how China’s remarkable GDP growth could be related to its own containment strategy. Ed gives a sneak peek of his upcoming interview with legendary value investor Joel Greenblatt while Ash tells viewers about Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal’s surprise update on Bitcoin and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Lastly, Ed and Ash discuss signs of stress emanating from the New York commercial real estate market. In the intro, editor Jack Farley gives a snapshot of today’s price action and looks at NASDAQ futures contracts and Royal Caribbean Cruises’ recent convertible bond deal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Everyone knows Jeremy Grantham as the face of GMO, the behemoth money manager that has become legendary for its work on asset allocation, but Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO since 1998, seems to be next in line for the throne. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Inker helps viewers make sense of the post-COVID investment landscape from the perspective of a major asset allocator. Together they discuss everything from the future of the 60/40 portfolio to bonds as an asset class in this new low rate world. They also dig in to US vs. non-US assets, the trouble with popular ex-post facto explanations for FAANG outperformance and narrative bubbles like Tesla, and why the financial sector can be so difficult to value. Filmed on September 21, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Alex Saunders, CEO and founder of Nugget's News, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to explain the reinvention of the monetary system through new crypto payments systems based on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stable coins. He tells Raoul the story of his introduction into the crypto world. Saunders also breaks down the expansion of global e-commerce through the explosive growth of decentralized finance. Filmed on September 15, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, look forward to the relevant themes. Ed adds to David Rosenberg’s recent comments that “organically, the economy is still in recession,” and he and Ash reflect on (the? a bit awk) recent success of Sweden’s pandemic shutdown response. They then put a week of bank earnings into context and analyze Warren Buffett selling the bulk of Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings in Wells Fargo. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about “priming” in the markets for distressed debt. For reference, the video Ed discusses at the beginning can be found here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/the-breakdown-what-all-financial-crises-have-in-common-5f89ad21d788a45104be209e. Visit realvision.com to get access for just $1 for months access. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst analyze a choppy day of global market action. They look at European equities as well as currency swings in the Euro and the Australian dollar. Roger looks at gold, and Ed analyzes the effect of narrowing net interest margins on bank earnings and yield curves. They also discuss central banks’ role in facilitating fiscal stimulus as well as global debt levels and zombification. In the intro, Haley Draznin analyzes price action, Morgan Stanley’s earnings, and the re-emergence of COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
|Credit Markets| IPOs | Bond Issuance | Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down today’s bank earnings reports and look forward to the fate of the credit markets. Ed shares his framework for understanding the K-shaped bifurcation between investment banks relying on a flurry of IPOs and bond issuance and commercial banks who are left with spotty loans and narrowing net interest margins. Jack guides viewers through the remarkable performance of Goldman Sachs, particularly their trading division, and he also shines a light on the rising credit risks in Bank of America’s loan book. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses how companies are postponing their plans to return to the office until the summer of 2021 and what the future of work arrangements may look like as remote work continues to present its pros and cons. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Daily Briefing | JPMorgan Chase| Citigroup |Finance | Investing Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of big moves today in equities, bonds, and the dollar. Greer analyzes the latest CPI reading through the lens of the ECB’s piggy-back announcement that it too would let inflation run hot. Greer then breaks down today’s bond rally as the dollar retracement coincided with significant sector rotations in the S&P 500. Bennington and Greer then analyze the latest newsflow from Washington D.C, including the status of President Trump’s health, the progress of stimulus talks in Congress, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about the latest earnings reports from U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
S&P 500 | VIX |Economics | Trading | Investing Managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington answer questions from the Real Vision audience in this special edition of the Daily Briefing. They discuss everything from the latest jobs numbers, to the regulatory hurdles that banks are facing, to the Real Vision editorial process. They also look at junk bond defaults and the correlation between the S&P 500 and the VIX. Lastly, they explore whether credit is “the canary in the coal mine.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Asia | China | Europe | GeoPolitics | Macro Technology After years living abroad in China and Vietnam, professor Chris Balding has returned to the U.S. because of concerns for his safety due to his role in exposing the data collection operations of Shenzen Zhenhua Data Technology. In this interview with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Balding lays out the initial findings from his expository research and updates viewers on the current state of affairs in China. Together they examine geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of Asia as well as China’s current relationship status with Europe and Russia. They also help viewers make sense of what is happening on the Chinese homefront and the macro factors driving capital flows into the country. Filmed on September 15, 2020. More information about the Chinese data gathering operation described in the interview can be found here: https://rvtv.io/33Cmxd7 and https://rvtv.io/3ktuDvg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content on Real Vision by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, "has everything changed?" As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, "has everything changed?" He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is "the world’s best trade." Filmed on September 17, 2020 and Aired on September 21 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to look back at market action and make sense of several secular trends. Raoul shares several of the lessons from his interview with “The Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, which leads into a discussion about changes to risk appetite and time horizon within the hedge fund industry. Raoul and Ash then discuss the latest banning of crypto derivatives for amateur investors. They close by discussing wage deflation and software’s ever-tightening grip on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst break down some of the most significant price action they're seeing in markets. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains the back-and-forth on fiscal stimulus negotiations and why the Fed could issue a monetary policy offset to try and sustain economic momentum. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down the vanishing fiscal stimulus and the K-shaped economic recovery. Ed interprets the latest economic data to give Jack his market outlook over the next six months. Ed then looks at how the impasse in the fiscal stimulus may widen the chasm between large corporations and small businesses. He and Jack then turn their gaze to the credit markets where the bifurcation between the haves and the have-nots is becoming even more apparent. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper takes a look at how President Trump has pulled the plug on fiscal stimulus negotiations, what he's targeting now, and how markets have been taking in the news. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest wild market swings. Despite a large selling episode on Friday with the announcement of President Trump being diagnosed with COVID-19, Tony discusses how the rally still has momentum as the macro indicators are still driving markets upward. Ash then asks how Tony is currently hedging the news of the president's health, and they talk about how FAANG is now getting pummeled even though the rally is still holding. They review historical examples of key anti-trust cases and share their thoughts on why breaking up big tech may catch retail investors flat-footed. They wrap up their conversation with Tony sharing some trading lessons he's learned from his experience and what he's looking out for next. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains why stocks took a dive Tuesday afternoon after President Trump said he ordered an end to stimulus negotiations until after the November election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison break down another day of risk-on sentiment as the market evaluates the state of President Trump’s health and the chances of another round of fiscal stimulus. Ed explores whether the term “depression” is appropriate, through the lens of his interview today with David Rosenberg. Ed and Ash then look at how duration risk and political gridlock might impact markets going forward. Lastly, Ash discusses his interview on Friday with Brian Estes, and looks forward to Live Q&A's with Lyn Alden, George Goncalves, and Ted Seides on “The Exchange”: https://exchange.realvision.com/. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at movie theater chain Cineworld's decision to shutter hundreds of theaters in the U.S. and U.K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Marc Cohodes is well known as a confident and vocal short-seller willing to fight harder and dig deeper into a company than anyone else in the business. But when he sees the buying opportunity of a lifetime, he's just as willing to get to work on the long side and spread the good news. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Cohodes explains why the combination of a booming e-commerce business, the massive call option of tokenization, and the tZERO blockchain network have him extremely bullish on Overstock even after riding the stock from $3 to $90 in its most recent run. As well, they discuss Marc's other "all in" call on Camping World, a company that, much like Overstock, has him licking his chops and continuing to buy alongside insiders who have not stepped out of the market in spite of the general frothiness that abounds. Cohodes also updates viewers on the personal and emotional rollercoaster that has been his MiMedx short. Air Date: 4 Sep 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Aired on September 11, 2020 on realvision.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins senior editor, Ash Bennington, to interpret the latest financial newsflow. Raoul explores the possibility of a top forming in U.S. equities through the lens of his “GMI crash pattern.” He and Ash then analyze President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 and investigate its potential market impact. Raoul then talks about today’s interview with hedge fund legend Dmitry Balyasny as well as next week’s interview with bond kingpin Jeffrey Gundlach. Raoul and Ash briefly discuss the criminal charges brought against BitMEX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Lastly, Raoul shares his view on the enfeebled energy sector. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley breaks down the price action following the COVID-19 outbreak in the White House. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to break down today’s price action. Using Julian Brigden’s Expert View from September 28th as a springboard, Roger discusses the pressures that central banks are under to create reflation in an environment of low productivity, low growth, and a weaker dollar when they have instead contributed to asset price inflation. Roger and Ed also analyze the rebound in equities by considering how US equities are carrying out a bullish narrative of recovery as compared to poorer equity performance outside of the US. Wrapping up their conversation, Roger also offers his thoughts on the NASDAQ futures short position as well as how pensions are being threatened now. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin takes a look at the rise in SPACs as first blank-check ETF makes its trading debut today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report. Boockvar shares his macro analysis on what he calls “the pain trade": companies that have been the most hurt by COVID-19 and have the most to gain from re-opening. Boockvar and Harrison review the latest economic data and discuss what is and what is not priced into the markets. Boockvar also discusses banks as the ultimate value trap and why they may be poised for an ultimate turnaround should the long-end of the yield curve tighten. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin breaks down two major technology companies, Palantir and Asana, and their direct listings on the NYSE today and how this could reshape the IPO market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to break down recent price action in markets. Tony provides his latest thoughts about what’s happening in the energy sector and where oil is headed as we begin to close out 2020, reviews his stance on the tech rally and its sub-sectors, and offers his perspective on the financials sector. Ash and Tony also discuss market sentiment with the U.S. presidential election fanning the flames of anxiety and the risk of COVID-19 still looming. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin looks ahead at what investors will be watching for in the first US presidential debate and its impact on continued market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of the biggest 3-day breakout in equities since April. Through the lens of Ed’s most recent piece in "Credit Writedowns." Ed and Ash explain why low interest rates tend to make growth stocks more valuable relative to value stocks, and why the recent rally in small-cap value stocks might be short-lived. Ed looks forward to his interview with hedge fund legend Leon Cooperman, which airs tomorrow, on Tuesday, September 29. The pair also discuss discount rates, portfolio rebalancing, and endogenous credit creation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro horizon. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed's FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed's policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as an investor as well as a financial advisor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What happens when the monetary and fiscal engines run too hot? This is the question that Larry McDonald, New York Times bestselling author and founder of the Bear Traps Report, explores with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal. McDonald and Pal start by analyzing the valuations of high-flying tech stocks and discuss whether they will continue to soar or make an early landing. The pair then examine in detail the remarkable price action seen over the past few months in commodities such as precious metals, lumber, and natural gas. McDonald compiles this appreciation as evidence to explore his thesis that excessive stimulus could serve as a "cobra effect" to augur a hyperinflationary economic collapse. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, come together to analyze the price action in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Ed looks forward to his interview with Leon Cooperman, and Ash interprets the latest economic data, including today’s dismal print for durable goods orders. They then consider the latest political news and discuss how the upcoming presidential election will impact markets. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about stocks, credit spreads, and a steepening VIX curve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, hosts managing editor, Roger Hirst, to break down wild market swings that have characterized the last week of price action. Roger explores key retracement levels in the IBEX and FTSE 100 as well as the recent weakness in bank stocks, using his analysis from his latest episode of “The Big Conversation.” Ed then discusses the momentum shift over the past two weeks from growth to value through the lens of his interview with Ben Inker, heir apparent to Jeremy Grantham at GMO. The pair then look at the head-and-shoulders pattern in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and explore whether currencies could be a release valve for volatility adjustment. In the intro, Ed speaks to Real Vision reporter, Haley Draznin, about the steady rise in jobless claims released today, which signal continuing layoffs as the economy recovers slowly from the coronavirus pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to review and analyze today’s price action. Ed and Dave first discuss the continuing sell-off in equities and examine Dave’s bearish position on the S&Ps. They also consider the dollar’s move upward, what opportunities may exist for the yen as a result, and how low volatility in bonds is prompting higher volatility in the FX space. Finally, Dave shares his thoughts on the sell-off in silver, explains what technicals he uses to manage the trade, and at what levels he’ll retest his bullish thesis on precious metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the ongoing inflation trade. Tony expounds on his bullish posture toward oil and some of the technical indicators he uses to analyze different securities. He also reviews some of the current policy stances that emerged from last week’s FOMC meeting, explaining how he leverages these policy shifts to seek out price inflation across different asset classes. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin monitors the continued volatility in the markets and addresses the potential risks investors are paying close attention to in the coming weeks including another stimulus relief bill out of Congress, a new spending bill, and surging coronavirus cases in the U.S. and abroad. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, discuss a volatile day in markets. Ed and Ash analyze today’s sell-off in stocks, gold, and silver as well as a significant rally in bonds. They then consider the resignation of Nikola founder, Trevor Milton, the rumors of European bank consolidation, and the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Ed looks forward to his interviews with Jim Berry, Deloitte’s U.S. real estate leader, and Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO. Lastly, Ash speaks to Real Vision editorial intern Bryce Zuccoli, who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard the narrative that cities are dead and that white collar workers, now unburdened by the ability to work from home, are fleeing to the suburbs as fast as they can. Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at Housing Wire, explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington why it is nothing more than an interesting narrative. He goes on to add that, aside from a few pockets in New York and San Francisco, the relative strength in the suburban housing market is being driven by the only factors that matter -- demographics and mortgage rates. Bennington and Mohtashami also drill down on the relationship between bond yields and mortgage rates and the knock-on effects into housing demand that you could see depending on different scenarios for those rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
There will always be debate surrounding what is the best way to gain exposure to precious metals. Should you buy gold miners, an ETF, maybe trade futures? It can all seem very complicated, but what if you want to do it the way it has been done for centuries -- owning physical metal with your name on it stored in a vault in a secure location? Mark Yaxley, general manager at Strategic Wealth Preservation (SWP), sits down with friend and client Raoul Pal to answer that very question and discuss how SWP has made it easy to buy, sell, and store precious metals in the Cayman Islands in a safe, legal, and affordable way for countless clients from all over the world. Together, they also discuss the state of the physical gold market, Mark and Raoul’s outlooks for the asset class, differences between coins and bars from assorted global producers, and the types of clients Mark is seeing step into the physical market at this exciting time for precious metals. Filmed on August 19, 2020. To find out more about SWP or open a physical metals account, go to www.swpcayman.com/realvision. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to look forward to the future of markets as well as Real Vision. After they evaluate how the market interpreted the Fed’s latest FOMC meeting, Raoul broadens the conversation beyond equities to make sense of the flatness in bond yields and credit spreads. Raoul and Ash then discuss the upcoming two-week exploration on Real Vision, “Has Everything Changed,” as well as discuss how Real Vision’s new platform, “The Exchange,” is allowing Real Vision members to connect with each other and form a “hive mind.” In the intro, Jack reviews market price action and gives a sneak peak of “Has Everything Changed.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss the latest in markets, macro, and coronavirus. They discuss how the results of the upcoming earnings season will provide a gauge on the health of the economy and solidify its standing as 2020 begins to come to a close. They also speculate on the ongoing persistence and momentum to the upside in equity markets, short-dated options trading amongst retail investors, and the sudden proliferation of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Ash and Ed then debrief yesterday’s FOMC meeting, lay out the impact the Fed’s actions will have on the bond market, and consider whether the Fed really is out of ammo at this point. In the intro, Peter Cooper shares the latest jobless claims data and enumerates on the flaws of solely relying on this data to understand the health of the labor market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, invites managing editor, Roger Hirst, to take a deep dive into options to gain clarity on what this market’s greatest, current mover is. Roger argues that, contrary to conventional thought, currently the institutional “whales” are less influential than the retail investors, who are driving the options markets and have made themselves out to be the “megalodon.” He breaks down how retail investors are contributing to momentum through options, how “air pockets” in equity markets and contract expiries are linked, and how rising volatility will continue to increase “air pocket” risks. Roger then elaborates on why he believes these aren’t structural risks as of yet, but rather that insolvency risks are more near-term by observing how zombification of large-cap companies is on the rise due to misallocated capital and QE infinity. Ash and Roger then finish off their conversation by exploring the renewed risks to a clean Brexit. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin analyzes at the correlation between retail sales out this morning and the performance in the market. She also looks at the surge in IPOs this week, including Snowflake’s debut today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the latest in markets. Tony breaks down what he’s seeing in the tech shakeout and explains how he’s approaching the recent correction in equity markets. He walks through the indicators he watched and how that guides his investment decisions. Ash and Tony then discuss the ongoing suppression of oil demand, especially as fears of lagging demand will persist for years rise, and how Tony is maintaining his long natural resources position. Tony then offers his final thoughts on what he’s looking out for as the week goes on. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin examines the rise of retail investors and why institutional investors are turning to platforms like Reddit and Twitter to track retail in efforts to gain an edge in the market and gain a better understanding of why they are flocking to stocks like Nikola. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the animal spirits that are driving this market. After reviewing historical financial panics, Ed and Ash take another look at whether options mania is exerting influence on equity price action. They explore the “Softbank narrative” through the lens of volatility investor and arbitrageur Benn Eifert, and examine how speculators are buying options from market makers who are forced to delta-hedge their position, as they don’t want to take a directional position. Lastly, Ed and Ash look forward and see if there is “another shoe to drop” as fall approaches. In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash Bennington discuss the OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, sits down with Rick Rule, president and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., to talk about the macro drivers of the recent precious metals bull market and what to look for when investing in miners. Using their decades of experience in the industry, Rule and Fleckenstein explain why regardless of a specific price target and because precious metals investments as a percentage of the total market for savings and investments is far below the average over the past 50 years, reversion to the mean has precious metals exposed investments poised to march higher. Rule provides his explanation as to why Warren Buffet, who has called gold a pet rock in the past, has recently allocated a portion of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in Barrick Gold Corporation. Fleckenstein argues that there is a problem with using traditional NAV-based analysis and provides viewers with strategies to find hidden value when analyzing miners and to avoid the pitfalls that many investors fall victim to when investing in the space. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For much of the population, analysis and projections of COVID-19 cases, mortality, and the associated policy response have brought forward the importance of statistical analysis and modeling techniques that many have never learned and, at best, probably haven't used since long past college years. This has resulted in heated debate, politicization, and huge differences in policy decisions and attitudes across jurisdictions. In this Interview, Christina Ramirez, professor of biostatistics at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, sits down with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors to help viewers understand the constantly evolving story that the data is telling. Together, they examine the quality of the available data sets, how the consequences of lockdowns have born themselves out in other data like reports of child abuse, and how data indicates that as our knowledge and experience has grown, so too has our ability to combat the pandemic. Viewers can find more info about Christina Ramirez's work and access her updated data sets and charts here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on the latest financial newsflow as well as Real Vision's new projects. After briefly discussing oil’s recent price action of oil, Raoul and Ash break down how the Fed's action is affecting different segments of the credit market, and they also weigh in on Jeffrey Gundlach's recent comments that default rates on high-yield credit could double. Raoul then explains why the importance of demographics means that inflation is not always purely a monetary phenomenon. Raoul and Ash then discuss Real Vision Creative Studios, the forthcoming Real Vision crypto channel, as well as "The Exchange," Real Vision’s brand new platform for members to share knowledge with each other. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about Nikola, Softbank, as well as a week of ample credit issuance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by Tyler Neville to discuss how the recent market sell-off may have been a temporary equity volatility-driven event due to credit spreads. They question where economic growth is going to come from and how funding in the private markets may fuel it. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin weighs in on the juxtaposition between the real economy and the financial economy and Citigroup’s announcement today naming Jane Fraser as CEO, becoming the first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the market plumbing that’s fueling the wild price action on Wall Street. Ed and Ash first break down the tremendous pressures on banks, which find themselves in a cash-strapped economy lending to businesses with drastically-curtailed incomes. Ed then weighs the notion that central banks are ‘cartels’ in that they have a monopoly on the money supply. Ed and Ash then analyze the true effect of QE, exploring whether it will actually spur lending growth rather than just inflating asset prices. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the JOLTS report and the woes of commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to discuss the dramatic turmoil playing out in equity markets. Dillian discusses how the speculative bets in derivatives markets affect price action, and provides greater clarity on Softbank’s role in the ongoing saga. Dillian and Bennington also discuss Tesla’s selloff, the upcoming Canadian election, and the U.S. dollar. In the intro, Jack Farley explores the true effect of Softbank’s call-buying. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, answer questions from Real Vision subscribers, about markets, their respective journeys, as well as Real Vision itself. Ed shares his experience of working in the foreign service, and he describes how his time spent working in the fixed income markets caused him to become more receptive to Austrian economics. Ash discusses his journey of transitioning from working in fintech to becoming a financial reporter, and he also explores his passion for cryptocurrency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
History is often overlooked and misunderstood, especially financial history. Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC and Simon Mikhailovich, managing director of The Bullion Reserve, explain the role of gold and the credit cycle through history, comparing today to the credit crises that have occurred roughly every 100 years since the 1720's – the Mississippi Bubble in France, Europe's reckoning with a post-Napoleon order in the 1820's, and the post-World War I calamities of the 1920's and 1930's. Using history to set the table for their discussion of gold, central banking, and the credit cycle, Dan and Simon break down how these forces push the monetary system down the dangerous "goat path" towards unwinding. Despite the seemingly dour circumstances, Oliver and Mikhailovich explain why there is still hope for wealth preservation and even incredible returns for those investors who choose not to continue down the "goat path." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Milton Berg, Founder and CIO of Milton Berg Advisors, joins managing editor Ed Harrison to analyze the technical patterns and market internals on his radar. From his repository of over 10,000 indicators, Berg selects and discusses the ones he thinks are most compelling, such as 5-day breadth thrust, consecutive volume-up days, and the put/call ratio. Berg then observes that the equity markets are behaving like commodities, in that they are trending upward as volume spikes. Lastly, Berg and Harrison try and reconcile some oddly bullish indicators with the macro backdrop with Berg casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of central bank’s ability to ballast asset prices. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on a week of extreme price action. They analyze the dramatic crash of U.S. equities on Thursday and its connection to the speculative activity in derivatives markets. After weighing the significance of Softbank’s unmasking as the big “NASDAQ Whale” that has been buying a massive amount of calls on big tech stocks, Raoul and Ash have a broader discussion about how volatility regimes evolve and bleed into each other. Raoul then provides a strategic update on his “unfolding” thesis, shares his thoughts on Europe, and explores the possibility of a W-shaped recession. Finally, Raoul and Ash discuss the “Festival of Learning” that Real Vision hosted this week, as well as give a sneak peek of Real Vision’s new community feature, “The Exchange.” In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash discuss today’s jobs report and look at market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to discuss the levels he’s looking at after U.S. equity markets cratered today. Dave considers whether there are structural changes occurring in the markets and provides his insight into the frothiness by drawing comparisons between now and markets in the early 2000s. He also breaks down his tactical approach and how he makes his picks. Ash is also joined by Real Vision’s Roger Hirst, sharing his thoughts on how rising implied volatility was signaling a potential drawdown in the past few weeks. Roger explains how he analyzes the VIX and the volatility curve to understand this rare market signal and expands on Ed Harrison’s points about derivatives playing into rising volatility and what bond yields converging to zero means for real yields. Roger also provides his response to James Altucher’s segment from yesterday’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk about the risk of an equity drawdown for retail investors in particular. Ed and Ash explore how market volatility is increasing and the fact that bond yields globally have converged to zero makes a drawdown that much more severe. They also talk about how the activity in the derivatives market is playing into the uptick in market volatility. Ash also hosts James Altucher to discuss his recent article in the New York Post about the narrative of the death of cities, and Ed and Ash provide their thoughts. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses Australia’s slide into recession after almost 3 decades of economic expansion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to discuss how the Fed’s “inflation running hot” memo has been translated by the markets. With a weakening dollar, rally in TIPS, and a steeper yield curve, Tony argues that the asset price inflation happening is the way the Fed had intended it to be and that understanding how the Fed fits into the equation will shape the investor’s understanding of the sustainability of this rally. He and Ash examine the price action and continuous rotation across different sectors as well as how commodities continuing to rip is an expression of an ever-weakening dollar. Tony then provides his forward guidance for the remainder of the week. In the intro, Nick Correa goes over the newest U.S. manufacturing numbers as well as what’s happening with copper and other industrial metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How is it that the real economy can be so weak while the asset markets continue to fly? Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison explores this and more with senior editor Ash Bennington. Ed and Ash discuss the ever-widening chasm between Wall Street and Main Street and use Hyman Minsky’s “two-price model” as a framework to understand this dichotomy, and they analyze how asset markets have responded differently to interest rate cuts than the markets for goods and services. In that context, they explain how the sinking labor force participation rate reveals a hidden unemployment which will keep inflation subdued. In the intro, Ash and Jack Farley discuss Jack’s recent interview with Jason Buck on the Real Vision blog, and they also interpret the re-opening woes of airlines and colleges. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Diego Parrilla, portfolio manager and author of "The Anti-Bubbles" and "The Energy World," returns to discuss his poignant predictions that are coming to fruition one-by-one in this conversation with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. As well, Parrilla gives a master class on how he has developed his own macro framework and the subsequent portfolio construction and management that has served him extremely well both before and after the March crash. After establishing his current outlook, Parrilla focuses on the 5% of his portfolio dedicated to finding outsized returns using options and what he calls the goalkeepers of your portfolio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
David Samra, Portfolio Manager of Artisan Partners’ International Value Fund, speaks with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison about the subtle art of value investing. Samra, who defines value investing simply as buying something well below its intrinsic value, shares the four criteria he and his fund use when looking at stocks: undervaluation, quality, financial strength and management alignment. He and Ed also discuss how investors can avoid the pitfalls of so-called "value-traps" – i.e. when a stock is cheap because there’s a reason it's cheap. Lastly, Samra analyzes two companies that are in his fund’s portfolio: ABB and Compass Group PLC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, react to the new U.S. consumer spending report out today from the Commerce Department. Despite gains for three consecutive months, momentum fell as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and fiscal support dries up. They also discuss inflation rhetoric following yesterday’s announcement from the Fed to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the Fed’s dual mandate and how they may need to retire the use of the Phillips Curve. Real Vision editor and reporter Haley Draznin is introduced for the first time to discuss her new role and what financial news stories she is keeping a close eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With just days to go before The Festival of Learning kicks off on Wednesday Sept 2nd, Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal and Real Vision Co-Founder and Chief Creative Officer Damian Horner hosted a Pre-Party. They announced more than 10 new additions to the festival line-up, answered your festival questions, and lots more. Don’t have a ticket yet? You’re running out of time… Get your ticket here - http://realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to check the pulse of the market. Tommy discusses how frothy markets have seen price action heavily skewed by sentiment, and how, with companies withholding guidance for the year, investors are flying blind. He and Ash go over some of the tools Tommy utilizes to examine market trends and momentum, explore how short sellers are currently getting smoked, and consider whether the Fed can continue its QE binge. Tommy then provides his view on the Fed’s move toward average inflation targeting and his forward outlook for the next few months. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and how the Fed is shifting course regarding inflation targeting. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss risk assets, credit markets, and the fiscal cliff. Within an environment of secular stagnation, they talk about the cross-asset play between bonds and equities as well as how overall credit tightening in the financials sector and the velocity of M2 money plummeting will have pernicious effects on growth. They also consider the dichotomy of monetary and fiscal policy and why the Fed will have to continue throwing all their chips in should fiscal authorities continue to be hawkish. In the intro, Nick Correa gives an overview of the tightening of credit markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to continue their discussion of the wild inflation trade. They first look at ExxonMobil getting the boot from the Dow Jones and how it reflects a weak energy sector and the rotation of tech upward, describing how the boom across tech subsectors are correlated to Fed policies. Tony also notes how the baton has been passed over to commodities as well as they continue exploding and how a sell-off in bonds will sustain the commodities’ rally while denoting a rise in inflation. He closes off by providing an update on his thoughts on the DXY, why dollar weakness is a part of the commodities bull case, and what might be driving the rallies in the yen, euro, and Aussie dollar. In the intro, Nick Correa talks about tech’s ongoing dominance in the market by looking at Dow Jones’ makeover and how tech companies are lining up to file their IPOs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a series of financial news stories -- from the so-called “K-shaped” recovery to the struggles American college towns are facing to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s ringing the alarm bell on TikTok. They also evaluate Tesla’s meteoric rise, looking at comments made by Joel Greenblatt, a legendary investor as well as a Real Vision guest, that he “can’t explain it." Lastly, Ed and Ash scrutinize the rise of “investing gurus” on social media platforms. In the intro, Jack takes another look at the U.S. housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Simon Dixon, CEO of bnktothefuture.com, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to break down the intersection of the crypto world and the world of traditional finance. Starting his career in investment banking and joining the monetary reform movement along the way, Dixon understood early on the shortcomings of the fiat money system. He and Pal talk about applying traditional financial ideas to the crypto world and argue that doing so will create a stronger financial system for the future. Pal and Dixon discuss the early days of bitcoin, the intersection between central banks and crypto technologies, and their ideas about the relationship between bitcoin, dollars, and gold. Finally, they talk about how the principles of behavioral economics could impact the interplay between fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies, and the composition of future of financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We can all remember when geopolitical tensions and trade wars were the most important headlines seeming to move global markets up or down depending upon their tenor, but recently the global pandemic and the associated policy responses have brought the focus home with all eyes squarely on domestic fiscal policy. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, looks forward at the coming decade of the 20's and explores the growing importance of government consumption and investment to GDP, the countries and assets that will emerge as winners and losers from the rewiring of the global economy, and why the cold war is a poor analogy for U.S. relations with China. As well, they discuss why news of the European Union’s death has been greatly exaggerated and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on the future of markets at this unique juncture. Raoul begins by giving Ash a glimpse of how his “unfolding” thesis has evolved, particularly with regard to the dollar. The discussion of currencies naturally leads Raoul and Ash to talk about the ongoing meltdown of the Turkish Lira (TRY). Raoul explains the correlation between Bitcoin and the TRY and explores whether it’s a sign of capital flight by Turkish investors. After a brief detour into New York City’s woes, Raoul and Ash consider how this consumer-led recession is widening the divide between skilled and unskilled workers, as well as between the rich and the poor. They then discuss Joe Biden’s recent nomination, the upcoming presidential election, and the importance of evaluating markets in a non-partisan way. In the intro, Jack Farley notes a stark contrast in the PMI data between Europe and the U.S. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss ongoing global monetary and fiscal policy support, how central banks may need to adjust their course, and what the long-term ramifications would look like. Ash and Roger review the latest FOMC minutes and consider the effects of looser inflation targeting and the implementation of yield curve control. They dig deeper into the push and pull of inflation targeting by looking at the risks of aiming for reflation and ending up with stagflation. In an environment of low rates and low yields within a deflationary structure, Roger and Ash explore how aggregate debt and growth could be negatively impacted in the long run. Finally, they look at how these scenarios would be expressed in currency markets—the continuing disparity between the dollar and the DXY and the growing pressure for a weaker euro and yen. In the intro, Peter Cooper examines the scaling back of U.S. dollar liquidity swaps, the newest unemployment numbers, and the FOMC minutes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to take a deep dive into the apex predator of currency markets: the U.S. dollar. Roger argues that the size and speed of the dollar’s fall is driven more by euro strength, flowing out from the ECB’s move toward debt mutualization, than it is by dollar weakness. He explains how certain EM currencies are still weakening as compared to the dollar and how the ECB and the BOJ may find it difficult to hit their inflation targets should their currencies continue to strengthen. Roger also expounds on how bond yield convergence between the U.S. and Europe is contributing to euro strength. In light of these potential structural challenges and the supply and demand bottlenecks due to COVID-19, Ash and Roger then explore how to play the trade and the ongoing bifurcation of financial markets and the economy. In the intro, Peter Cooper looks at Apple’s $2 trillion valuation and Target’s Q2 earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator Newsletter, to discuss the S&P 500 breaking record highs and the wild inflation trade. Tony considers where inflation is cropping up and how dollar weakness is connected to a dovish Fed. He also talks about the biggest market movers—bitcoin, FANG stocks, precious metals, and miners—and where the market may be headed should low interest rates persist. Ash and Tony explore what is happening in the housing market and what is influencing its activity. They top off their conversation by looking at the risks of momentum strategies to novice investors, ESG strategies catching fire, and Tony’s approach to position sizing. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the kick-off of the Democratic National Convention and the latest on CalPERS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by editor, Max Wiethe, to talk gold, stocks, housing, and New York. After Ash analyzes the dismal Empire Manufacturing reading, he and Max discuss the NAHB housing number and explore what it means for the future of New York as professionals flee big cities for the safety of the suburbs. Ash and Max then interpret Goldman Sachs' increase of its price target for the S&P 500, which leads into a discussion of the future of U.S. equities more broadly. Lastly, Ash and Max discuss the case for and against precious metals and emphasize understanding both sides of the trade. In the intro, Jack explores dislocations in the U.S. housing market, looks at Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Barrick Gold Corp, and gives a sneak peak for Tuesday and Wednesday for Real Vision's "Precious Metals Week." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The global economy had been running higher for over a decade, and the coronavirus has been a major speed bump. But what happens when central banks have replaced the airbag with a dagger? This is the very question that Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, explores alongside Luke Gromen, president and founder of Forrest for the Trees. Hendry and Gromen explore the fate of the U.S. dollar through the lens of Charles Kindleberger's theory about "monetary hegemony."They analyze the various interest rates and current accounts of different countries and break down how these nations manage their exposure to commodity risk. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mike Green of Logica Capital sat down with Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, in the last interview to be filmed in Real Vision's studios before the world and our daily routines would be drastically changed by unforeseeable total lockdowns. A lot has changed since then, and in this new interview, they reexamine their outlooks with the advantage of fresh data. Together they discuss the side effects of policies like total lockdown, increased unemployment insurance, and PPP while also examining the social and economic undercurrents that, although accelerated by COVID-19, were established long before it arrived on our shores. Using historical parallels to the Roman Empire, Sri and Mike also think about their long-term outlooks for the U.S. and its currency, taking a view that the U.S. is not in its dying days. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on the current state of markets. Raoul and Ash discuss the upcoming “precious metals week,” and Raoul shares his views on gold, silver, and mining stocks and provides insight into his trading framework. Raoul and Ash then turn to cryptocurrency: Raoul analyzes Bitcoin’s risk/reward characteristics, and Ash details the technological breakthroughs of Ethereum 2.0 with Raoul maintaining it is the macro that is driving the extreme price action of this nascent asset class. In the intro, Jack gives a sneak peek of next week’s interviews on precious metals. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss secular stagnation, initial jobless claims, and the fiscal cliff. They begin by exploring Ed’s takeaways from his interviews with Milton Berg and Charlie McElligott, their contrarian stances, and how price signal distortion is pointing toward secular stagnation. Ed and Ash also parse the differences between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims and how the treatment of the data shapes the way an investor understands employment trends during the pandemic. They wrap up their discussion by considering USPS funding, the lapse in fiscal aid, and the significant political tail risks ahead for this election cycle. In the intro, Peter Cooper reviews the latest initial jobless claims numbers and the plight of essential workers. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Robert Leonard, VP of Growth and Innovation at The Investor’s Podcast Network, to discuss how novice and millennial investors are currently navigating the markets. Robert explains how the real economy and markets are currently disconnected and how that lays the foundation for a future market correction. He also dives into his investment framework and how he combines both value and momentum strategies. Ash and Robert wrap up their discussion by examining how novice and millennial investors tactically and philosophically approach markets, especially in the past few months, and what the potential ramifications of that will be for this demographic. In the intro, Peter Cooper shares how airlines and Disney are currently working to conserve cash flow in an environment of suppressed demand. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tyler Neville to discuss secular stagnation and the financial chicanery happening in markets. With stocks rising above global GDP, Ash and Tyler consider how the increase in bond issuance has been electric all while yields aren’t rising. Tyler also argues how people look at markets through a political lens, but not a demographic lens, and how demographics can further shape an investor's understanding of what’s occurring. They also talk about the DXY in juxtaposition with the federal deficit, the relationship between spot gold and gold miners, and what the future holds for pension funds. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss the pivotal forces driving markets. They discuss bank balance sheets in Europe and how compression of net interest margins are damaging bank earnings. Ash discusses supply constraints of consumer staples, and Ed analyzes volatility, market breadth, and “bear steepening” through the lens of his recent interviews with Milton Berg and Charlie McElligott. They also look forward to a market of lower growth and higher prices. In the intro, Jack analyze Berkshire Hathaway’s recent Q2 earnings report. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We all get our start somewhere, and often the formative experiences of our early years shape our career path for years to come. Beeneet Kothari, managing partner at Tekne, was fortunate enough to spend a large chunk of his formative years at Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Capital where he became the youngest portfolio manager in the history of the firm. In this interview with Christian Alexander, headhunter and author of Macro Link, Kothari outlines his biggest takeaways from working with legends of finance and eventually starting and running his own successful fund. He explains why some of the most important lessons he learned are not hard and fast rules but ways to think, and why even after working at one of the most successful macro shops in the world, he built his fund with a narrow focus on his first love of tech investing. Additionally, he provides his views on bargain hunting, diversification and portfolio concentration, provides his outlook for technology investing in general, and argues against thinking of technology as a sector in the traditional sense. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For decades, the schools of economic thought that have informed monetary and fiscal policy decisions have been decidedly not Austrian; but, outside of the echo chambers of Washington D.C., Austrian School economics is in a boom as academics and civilians alike see the predictions and promises of the mainstream fall short. Guided by his Austrian views, Robert P. Murphy, senior fellow at the Mises Institute, has been astute with many of his predictions of the side effects of mainstream economic policies. Together with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, Murphy reintroduces the core of Austrian economics and compares and contrasts with other major economic schools of thought in relation to how each try to make sense of past and recent economic developments and the responses to them. He also attempts to answer the question of whether the Fed's monetary bazooka has ushered in a swift end to the recent business cycle and set us on course for another underwhelming economic expansion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the current state of different asset classes at this unique juncture. Raoul shares his view on the dollar, precious metals, and bitcoin. He also provides a strategic update on his unfolding thesis. Raoul guides viewers from the hope event into the insolvency phase as high-frequency data show slowdowns in economic activity. Raoul and Ash discuss why they think bitcoin is a favorable trade, and they explore why buying calls on the VIX and puts on the S&P 500 could ballast a gold-heavy portfolio. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses today's Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to David Bahnsen, founder and managing partner of The Bahnsen Group, about the economics of re-opening and the state of the U.S. equity markets. Bahnsen weighs the risks and rewards of reopening the U.S. economy during the ongoing pandemic, using the Swedish "no-lockdown" model as an example. Bahnsen and Bennington also discuss the methodology of calculating GDP change as well as the widening chasm between the S&P 500 and the drastic economy contraction. Bahnsen explains this bifurcation by noting that the GDP looks backward while the stock market looks forward. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews the latest initial claims data and gives a strategic overview of the dramatic price action in the Turkish Lira. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss some of the latest data coming out, revealing the health of the US economy. They go over the July ADP Nonfarm Payroll number, what the disappointing results say about where the economy stands, and why the pandemic really is something to seriously consider as a market driver. They also talk about the uptick of coronavirus cases globally, the Swedish outcome, and how the world would get closer to a new normal. They wrap up their discussion by exploring bifurcation, the divide between the real economy and the financial economy, and when that reality becomes important to markets as well as the bifurcation between the market winners and losers during the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of TheStreet.com to discuss gold and the looming fiscal cliff. Shedlock analyzes the purported "short squeeze" on gold, shining a light on the various players in the future as well as physical markets for gold during its ascendant rally. Bennington and Shedlock then analyze the dysfunction in Washington and gyrating asset markets through the lens of expiring unemployment benefits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to reckon with the idea of whether a COVID-19 vaccine will be the “medical bailout” everyone is staking their hopes on. Ash and Ed give an overview of where many major nations are currently in their battle against the pandemic and consider if this new normal is truly sustainable in the long-term. They also discuss the continued move toward a virtual world, how this is an omen of absolute collapse in certain industries, and how the pandemic has become a politically charged subject in the midst of a US election cycle. In the intro, Nick Correa shares some of the data from the Household Pulse Survey, revealing the ways fiscal stimulus has made up a portion of aggregate spending for American consumers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The neoliberal model of free trade, open borders, and liberalized capital flows is under assault. Traditional economic models with rational agents and efficient markets don't accord with reality, and people are starting to notice. Even recent advances in behavioral economics have failed to capture this disconnect. Mark Blyth, William R. Rhodes Professor of International Economics at Brown University, and Eric Lonergan, macro hedge fund manager at M&G Investments, explore and seek to resolve these conflicts in their new book, "Angrynomics." Blyth and Lonergan examine how the outsourcing of economic management to grey-suited bureaucrats is fomenting a populist backlash that is redrawing political battle lines and molding the destiny of different asset classes in ways few fully grasp. They analyze the recent largesse of central banks as a sort of asymmetric put-option which rewards those who hold assets and punishes those who don't. Blyth and Lonergan also explore potential solutions, which include dual interest rates, citizens' wealth fund, and - yes - even helicopter money. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
David Andolfatto, economist and senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, joins Pedro da Costa, senior reporter at Market News International, to give a peek behind the curtain into the Fed’s monetary policy at this unique market juncture. Andolfatto analyzes the most recent economic data and estimates that we are headed towards a "W-shaped" recovery. He then describes the remaining tools the Fed still has at its disposal. Da Costa and Andolfatto also analyze the pandemic as an accelerant of secular trends, such as working from home and rapid adoption of technology, as well of the lasting impacts of this acceleration. They also explore helicopter money, the commoditization of consumer loans, as well as the looming threat of inflation. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision favorite Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors. Mike Green gives a strategic update on the markets, and, through the lens of his renowned critique of passive investing, analyzes flow data on ETFs and mutual funds to conclude that the markets could be due for some turmoil in the coming months. Green and Bennington also discuss today’s interview with Green and Rob Arnott, one of the world’s leading quantitative investors. Green also shares his views on "volmaggedon" and the similarities between short-vol and bonds. In the intro, Jack reviews recent FAANG earnings and gives a preview of Jason Buck’s three-part “Ahead of the Curve,” a deep-dive into volatility featuring interviews with Chris Cole, Jerry Haworth, and Bastian Bolesta. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, hosts Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, to discuss currency markets, the dollar’s reserve status, and the world’s loosening grip on the goal of economic efficiency. Chandler and Harrison parse how a seemingly weaker US recovery is expressing itself through currency markets. Chandler also shares his thoughts on why the dollar losing reserve status and the loss of US hegemony are not as compelling by appealing to the dollar’s cyclical trends. Finally, they discuss how nations are reducing their dependency on economic efficiency as the end all, be all, what that looks like, and how the pandemic is catalyzing these trends. In the intro, Nick Correa reviews the latest GDP numbers for the U.S. economy and what implications it has over the next few months. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, come together to discuss the Fed in light of the FOMC’s announcement today. Ed and Ash drive home how the Fed, at this time, is the dominant agent in these markets and how investor’s feelings regarding Fed action can interfere with one’s ability to make money. Because of the Fed’s mandate, Ed and Ash discuss why they are “the only game in town” and how it’s led them to respond to the crisis with unprecedented force. They then consider the weight of the arguments concerning the dollar losing reserve currency status and examine the implications of the Fed’s latest announcement. In the intro, Nick Correa covers what’s happening in gold markets and whether the rally is “overhyped” as well as Santander’s and Barclays’ earnings announcements. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Max Wiethe to cover the types of U.S. stimulus that have been implemented so far, the battle happening in Congress, and the crypto space. Ash and Max do a deep-dive into the types of monetary policy the Fed can implement and the alphabet soup of facilities they have set up to respond to the crisis. They also discuss at length what the current negotiations could mean for the 2020 elections, how the robustness of the recovery is what matters at this stage, and how the dysfunction of Congress is on display. Finally, they talk about gold breaking its all-time highs, bitcoin nearing $11,000, and the long-term view of the crypto space. In the intro, Nick Correa talks about the newly-unveiled proposal from the Republicans for fiscal stimulus and the sources of tension as Congress races toward passing a relief bill. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Ed Harrison, to break down the recent price action in gold and bitcoin, and to analyze the health of the U.S. economy as COVID-19 continues to spread. Ash and Ed also consider how the dollar continues to weaken and where rates are headed, as well as speculate on what the next iteration of US fiscal policy will shape up to be. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the plumbing of the gold market. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In many ways, China is at the center of the public health and economic crisis that has gripped the entire world for most of 2020, but recently more focus has been placed on the U.S. and Europe. George Magnus, research associate for the China Centre at Oxford University, helps viewers revert their gaze back towards the global superpower sized elephant in the room. Together with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, Magnus examines the current state of affairs for China from the perspective of the western countries left with a bad taste in their mouths after China's handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, but also from the internal perspective of a country looking to restart its growth engine and position itself for a world with fewer allies and a new economy with less reliance on traditional global trade partners. In addition, they examine the health of the Chinese banking system, the return of credit growth in China, and the potential for western sanctions and the outright weaponization of the U.S. dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for an in-depth discussion on the fate of the world's most important currency: the U.S. dollar. Johnson gives a strategic update on his "Dollar Milkshake" thesis and explains his bullish long-term view of the dollar, based on the outstanding glut of dollar-denominated debt. Alden considers this analysis and introduces a less bullish view, which she bases on the U.S.'s high trade deficit and negative net international investment position (NIIP). Using many detailed charts, Alden and Johnson compare their ideas and reach something of a synthesis between their two views. The pair also reflect on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, and they also explore whether a move to a multipolar currency world is possible. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by editor Max Wiethe to reflect on a week of divergent price action. Ash and Max analyze the extreme rallies in precious metals, with Max describing his macro framework through the lens of his Real Vision Live interview with Greg Weldon. Ash then explores the rapidly approaching fiscal cliff, which leads into a philosophical discussion on financial journalists’ penchant for making uncertain connections between news headlines and moves in asset prices. Max describes his view on the dollar, and Ash and Max close by examining the dislocations between and within different equity indices. In the intro, Jack Farley goes over the latest economic data and explores the recent bid to rescue Brooks Brothers from bankruptcy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins Real Vision’s Tyler Neville to break down his ideas around secular stagnating markets, demographics, and pensions. Tyler discusses how mega corporations are no longer playing to win, but playing to not lose and how the Fed’s monetary policies, especially in response to the pandemic, entrenches calcified companies, rendering the zombification effect. Ed and Tyler also examine how markets no longer reward innovative ideas with capital, but rather have converted into a debt refinancing mechanism and encourages a rentier market. They wrap their discussion by exploring how lack of funding will push pensions to go risk-on, whether Tesla can be likened to Amazon, and what may be coming to markets next. In the intro, Nick Correa shares the state of Kentucky recently filed lawsuit against Blackstone and KKR and how this highlights the extreme weaknesses and woes of the pensions industry at large. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research to discuss the Fed and Judy Shelton’s recent nomination, the significance of flows, and his forward look on markets and the economy. Bianco and Harrison first analyze the extreme opposition of Shelton’s nomination as a Fed Governor and consider how the Fed has been a domineering force in supporting markets for the past few months. Bianco then breaks down the types of retail investors and why their influence can prove to be powerful in driving market movements. They end their discussion by talking about the recent rally in gold and silver, and Bianco’s perspective on the bifurcation of markets and the economy, whether stimulus can be effective forever, and the damaged psyche of consumers. In the intro, Nick Correa gives an overview of the status of the US’s new relief bill and how the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program will end sooner than most Americans believe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about how EU leaders have closed in on its landmark recovery deal. Ash and Ed examine how European political dynamics have shifted and why this may not really be Europe’s “Hamiltonian moment.” They look at how federalism has played out in the US, how the EU differs in its makeup, and what existential threats the EU faces should their efforts fail. They wrap up their discussion with the unique threats the EU may face with coronavirus should it boomerang back to Europe. In the intro, Nick Correa covers the EU recovery deal’s details and shares some of the difficulties in reaching a deal. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Ed Harrison, to analyze the economic news of the day. Ed and Ash examine the recent jobs figures, and Ed describes why he believes the current jobless claims may be significantly underreported. They also discuss gold, and analyze ongoing progress of the EU recovery deal. In the intro, Jack Farley places in context recent movements in the dollar, yen, and euro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Managing Editor Ed Harrison talks to Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute. Koo is famous for his work on balance sheet recessions, a rare type of recession where drastic liquidity injections fail to increase the money supply because they remain trapped in the financial system, as there's no low demand for loans since companies focus on minimizing debt rather than maximizing profits. He and Harrison discuss this framework in detail, and use it to analyze our current economic crisis the world faces. Koo draws a contrast between the traditional balance sheet recession, where a bursting of a debt-financed bubble causes a collapse in asset prices and an emergence of debt overhang, with what he refers to as a "pandemic recession," where an exogenous collapse of economic activity leads to disappearing income and a tightening of financial conditions. Koo and Harrison also discuss the various toolkits available to central banks and fiscal authorities worldwide, and Koo shares what he thinks what a sound policy response might look like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Program at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, joins Ash Bennington to explain what the Department of Defense's coronavirus vaccine research project is doing to combat the pandemic. Dr. Modjarrad breaks down the different factors that have culminated to increase the difficulty of creating a vaccine. He shares details on the vaccine that his research group is creating with nanoparticles that bind to the virus itself. Finally, he answers questions like, "how long will vaccine deployment take?", "what effects do mutations have on the success of vaccines?", and "how does one protect themself from COVID-19?" from the perspective of an infectious disease doctor on the inside of the scientific effort to mitigate this deadly pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on weakness in the banking sector and the odd flatness that has characterized the market for the past month. Raoul gives a taste of “Afterhours with Raoul,” in which he goes over how to build a macro framework and size position. Raoul and Ash also explore whether the Fed is suppressing volatility and take a look at CLOs through the lens of the most recent episode of Ahead of the Curve. In the intro, Jack examines Netflix’s plunge and the 30-year mortgage rate reaching an all-time low. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest jobless claims numbers and its particular significance this week. They start off by discussing Ed’s latest interview with Robert P. Murphy and Austrian economics. They then distinguish the difference between non-seasonally adjusted data and seasonally adjusted data and why that’s critical to understand the news coverage of this week’s jobless numbers. Ed and Ash end their discussion on Bank of America’s earnings, why several major US banks have had mixed results this week, and what it says about the embedded inequalities in the system. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses California Resources and why their bankruptcy is a foreshadowing for companies who are in trouble and are tapping into credit markets to carry them through the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In these unprecedented times of economic stress, the mainstream playbook has been tossed out the window as fiscal and monetary authorities continue to throw everything but the kitchen sink at the problem of synchronized global economic downturn. In this interview with Ed Harrison, heterodox economist Steve Keen argues that, although some of these policies are headed in the right direction, many are completely missing the core issue – ungodly levels of private sector debt. Together, Keen and Harrison discuss common misconceptions about private debt, MMT, and the circumstances where ballooning public debt led to hyperinflation. They also break down Keen's argument that the exogenous nature of the COVID crisis might improve the palatability of a much-needed private debt jubilee. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro. Bennington and Hirst consider the divergence of large-cap stock indexes and small-cap stock indexes, the DXY falling with the dollar weakening, and how the momentum of US equity markets is slowing due to Fed balance sheet tightening. They also dive into banking and explain why the recent earnings reports for some of the US’s large banks reveal the bifurcation of the real economy and financial markets. In the intro, Peter Cooper talks about Goldman Sachs’ 2020 Q2 earnings and explains why it exceeded expectations by a wide margin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss Q2 earnings for banks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo and use it as a barometer to talk about market cycles. Ash and Ed consider how the abysmal results in financials can cloud our understanding of where markets are at in the cycle. They also break down the sector weightings in the S&P 500, examining how severely underrepresented certain industries are and how that is distorting equity market performance. They also ponder the ways in which the system is currently “rigged,” the sorts of inequities that arise out of it, and how the pandemic is exposing it all. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the Q2 earnings for JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, and analyzes how effective the Payroll Protection Program has been in supporting small businesses in the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison for a conversation about life and markets during coronavirus. Using Tesla as a jumping off point, they take an existentialist turn and explore what might bring people to speculate on a stock that, by all traditional metrics, is extremely overvalued. Ed proffers that people who take a gamble on Tesla and other retail favorites do so out of a sense of desperation in order to feel a sense of control, at a time when they feel powerless. Ash provides additional color on Ed’s theory by analyzing the impact of fiscal stimulus. Ed and Ash also they frame their thinking through today’s interview with Mark Blyth and Eric Lonergan. In the intro, Jack Farley explores the coming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., and puts Tesla’s extreme price action in context. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Professor Richard Werner joins Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, for a deep-dive into the world of central banking. They explore the process of credit creation and examine the fundamental role it plays in inflating asset bubbles, the popping of which can wreck whole economies but can be very good for central bankers. They analyze the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) remarkable record of credit expansion, including its use of lending quotas, through the lens of Werner’' renowned book, "Princes of the Yen," which was a number one bestseller in Japan. They also look at the ongoing efforts of the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide liquidity during this unprecedented global crisis at all costs, particularly debt monetization and quantitative easing (a term Werner himself coined), which Werner suggests could lead to a widespread bank nationalization – or a "Sovietization" of the banking sector, as he says. Werner argues that the ECB is undemocratic and that it bears a closer similarity to the Reichsbank (1876 – 1945) than it does to the Bundesbank (1957-present). Hendry and Werner conclude their lengthy discussion by looking forward: they scrutinize the current and future monarchs of the global monetary order, who are no longer princes but who may be on their way to becoming kings. Hugh Hendry can be found on Twitter at @hendry_hugh and on Instagram at hughhendryofficial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
By both surprise and necessity, Modern Monetary Theory is here at our doorstep. And with neither major party remaining as the party of 'fiscal responsibility', it seems there is little standing in the way of MMT becoming the premise for US government spending initiatives. That’s why it is more important than ever to understand the thinking behind MMT and the common misconceptions surrounding it -- and to prepare your portfolio for its increased acceptance by politicians who view it as an invitation to spend. In this interview with Marshall Auerback of the Levy Economics Institute, Stephanie Kelton breaks down the arguments put forward in her new book, "The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy". Together they discuss why MMT does not give governments carte blanche to spend indiscriminately. Kelton also articulates why comparing government debts to private debts is flawed. She explores the varying gradations of monetary sovereignty as it relates to constraints on countries potentially using MMT as an economic framework. Finally, Kelton touches on the 'job guarantee vs. UBI' debate and much more in this interview that is sure to be a learning experience for MMT skeptics and believers alike. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is the idea of a V-shaped recovery dead? Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington explore that question in depth through the lens of the virulent reemergence of COVID-19 in the U.S. Raoul and Ash break down the alarming rise of cases coming out of many states and analyze the effect that this ominous second wave will have on markets. They also discuss Ash’s seminal interview today with Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. Raoul is firm in belief that the human reaction function is what matters and that the virus’s effect on behavior is more significant than the virus itself. Raoul concludes that caution is prudent in these uncertain times and that the bond market is sending the clearest signal to investors. In the intro, Peter Cooper examines market news and coronavirus data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Real Vision's Tyler Neville to discuss the ever-expanding chasm in markets between fundamentals and flows. Drawing upon his experience on the buy-side, Tyler analyzes how market forces such as commission free trading and the widespread adoption of passive ETFs have distorted price discovery, and he and Ed explore whether this means that the bull market mania could last longer than the bears expect. Ed is skeptical and argues that the pain on Main Street must eventually move to Wall Street as well. Ed and Tyler also explore how macro tailwinds such as demographics affect the pension system. In the intro, Peter Cooper looks at job destruction that's currently happening in several different countries and what the long-term effects the pandemic may have on employment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Ash and Ed first dive into recently released interviews with Stephanie Kelton and with George Magnus and share their takeaways from those pieces. They also talk about how flows are buoying equities, the “summer lull” that is occurring in markets, and the developing macro picture that could pull the rug out from underneath unsuspecting investors in the next few months. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains how coronavirus has affected millions of Americans’ living situations and what lies ahead for both renters and homeowners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Dan Russo, CMT, chief market strategist at Chaikin Analytics, to discuss the latest developments and trends in markets. With his blend of technical and fundamental analysis, Russo shares where he’s seeing relative strength in equities and explains why understanding the macro picture and the interconnected relationships of various asset classes is important for equity traders. Russo and Harrison also dive into currencies, bonds, and the macro trends, especially as it pertains to inflation. In the intro, Peter Cooper talks about remittance and why it’s a critical piece of puzzle for the global economic recovery. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Max Wiethe joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss sentiment, the 2020 election, and forward earnings and what sort of impact that will have on markets in the coming months. Max and Ed first break down Peter Atwater’s interview from last week on Real Vision, examining his thoughts on current market sentiment and US politics, which then leads them to consider what a Democratic sweep would mean for fiscal policy and how MMT policy would affect equities. They also talk about the growing consensus around the Fed’s indirect influence on equities, what variables would challenge the narrative of the Fed’s omnipotence, and how the growing number of companies suspending EPS estimates makes the future that much more unclear. In the intro, Peter Cooper shines a light on Warren Buffett's recent purchase of major natural gas pipelines from energy giant Dominion Energy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
At few moments in history have the policies of global central banks been as important as they are today. Former central bank insider and senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, William White, tells Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson just how we’ve gotten to this point. Dr. White puts forward the nuanced view that he is glad policymakers have implemented certain tools to lessen the impact of the crisis while also driving home the point that at best we are kicking the can down the road. The pair also discuss central bankers' recent abdication to fiscal authorities, the political limitations of policy tools supporting foreign markets, and the fate of the global dollar system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Kyle Bass, founder and CIO of Hayman Capital, joins Real Vision's Raoul Pal to break down the state of global macro. Bass talks about the bifurcation between capital markets and the real economy due to unprecedented monetary policy response. Bass and Pal discuss both temporary and permanent behavioral changes in response to coronavirus shutdowns and the potential for the global economy to stave off an insolvency crisis. Finally, Bass shares his perspective on U.S. – China tensions and provides viewers with a few ideas for investments that can help portfolios navigate today's uncertain markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this special, Fourth of July edition of the Daily Briefing, senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison sit down to answer questions from our viewers concerning everything from crypto to markets and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison dive into the June jobs report and talk about how it fits into the overall picture of the US's economic recovery. They also explore the implications and future trajectory of the coronavirus's spread and its continuing impact on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Editor Max Wiethe joins senior editor Ash Bennington to debrief Real Vision’s Crypto Gathering conference. Ash shares his insights from some of the panels he participated in and his recommended pieces of content for viewers if they didn’t have an opportunity to participate. Max and Ash also tee up the case for bitcoin and debate why and how the crypto space will have enduring relevance for years to come. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses the Fed’s Main Street Lending Program and its chilly reception by both lenders and borrowers.
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Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading Group, to discuss how to evaluate markets from a technical perspective. Believing that it’s important to “follow the tape” and trade what an investor sees, Floyd shares where he believes bonds and the S&P are headed and how both technical and fundamental analysis inform each other in a market rocked by COVID-19. Harrison and Floyd also touch on distortions of market signals, volatility, currencies, and silver. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses the potential impact of the Payroll Protection Program on small businesses and how the spread of the virus in the US further hurts their chances of making it through the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Editor Max Wiethe joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Max and Ed examine how the US is currently dealing with the virus and whether that means the nation is par for the course or has “gone off the reservation” as compared to other countries. They also talk about the risk factors that could put a highly volatile market over the edge, consider the longevity of US outperformance, and explore the current market rotation. They wrap up their discussion by sharing their thoughts on the latest video on Real Vision Essential and announce a special edition of the Daily Briefing on Friday as the U.S. observes Independence Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What happens when an upheaval so massive forces financial markets, governments, and society to rethink how our systems work? Michael Krieger, author of the Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Real Vision to explain what coronavirus and the response to the outbreak has revealed about the condition of American systems – from financial markets to the health care system. Tracing the story of financial markets and societal trends over the past two decades, Krieger outlines how our systems have been pushed to the brink – focusing on emergency policy responses and the everything bubble. He also provides viewers with potential solutions to the systemic decay that has been brought to the forefront by the coronavirus outbreak. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Steve Greenhut, Western region director at R Street Institute and author of "Plunder: How Public Employee Unions are Raiding Treasuries, Controlling Our Lives and Bankrupting the Nation," joins Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers to discuss his coverage of the political paralysis that surrounds the issue of pensions in California. He guides Mike on a deep-dive into the gargantuan public employee compensation complex and how that complex bleeds into every other aspect of California government spending. He argues that public employees have forced state and local governments into a corner wherein they cannot maintain their obligations because of the massive burden of pension disbursements and employee compensation. Due to a lack of transparency, pension assumptions based on guesswork, and legal precedent overturning democratic decisions, Greenhut says that the perfect storm that will surely "surprise" Californian politicians has been plain to see for longer than a decade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss a day of pain on Wall Street as the coronavirus shows no signs of relenting and the normally cautious Federal Reserve issued an alarming mandate to large-cap banks. Ed and Ash also flesh out their thinking on a potential "double-dip recession" and a second wave of coronavirus. In the intro, Jack Farley looks at COVID-19 data and analyzes the dire results from the Fed's "stress test" of the banking sector. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison break down the latest economic data amid a bullish day on Wall Street. They discuss the rising infections in states like Texas, Arizona, and Florida, and they take a data-driven look at the apparent stalling of the jobs recovery and the reversal of the durable goods slowdown. Ash looks at how peoples’ marginal propensity to spend is affecting the recovery, while Ed explores whether different asset classes are pricing in different recovery “shapes” (equities pricing in a V-shape, high-yield pricing in a Nike swoosh, and investment grade pricing in a “reverse radical”). In the intro, Nick Correa discusses what's happening in Texas and how the virus spread undetected for several weeks before the US locked down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Roger Hirst to analyze the anatomy of bubbles, propelled by emotional mania, and how that is relevant to today’s markets. Bennington and Hirst discuss how equity markets appear to be inflated by flows rather than grounded in fundamentals and why the Fed’s balance sheet is the key driver of all of the recent price action. They also explain why time horizons are a critical piece to how traders should form their thesis and shapes the way they look at the market as well. In the intro, Nick Correa shares the IMF’s latest update on its global GDP projections, what’s happening in CDS markets, and the cost of business operations during coronavirus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest news in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison first analyze the breaking story about Wirecard, a German fintech company, and its implications for Germany. They also talk about how the Fed has released the animal spirits on markets, bolstered by exorbitant amounts of liquidity, and anticipate the pullback in consumption in light of a W-shaped recovery. Finally, they explain how the pandemic reasserting itself will end up strengthening the dollar and lead to a liquidity crunch. In the intro, Nick Correa explains the latest developments in the Wirecard story and provides some context around how they arrived at this point. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison explore the perilous state of the global markets amid the unrelenting spread of coronavirus. They discuss the disturbing “second wave” of coronavirus in the U.S. – in states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona – as well as around the world and evaluate how the continued spread will impact economic growth and financial returns across different asset classes. Ed hazards whether the U.S. yield curve will see bear-steepening (or bull flattening), and Ash puts the widening “breadth” of the U.S. rally in proper context. In the intro, Jack Farley explores why CLO managers are often rendered incapable just at the time that bold action is most required. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dan Rasmussen, the CIO and Founder of Verdad Capital Advisers, speaks with his colleague Greg Obenshain, Verdad's director of credit, to examine the credit market sell-off over the past two months. They focus on the recent widening of spreads and other areas of financial markets hit hardest by the recent acceleration. Rasmussen asks Obenshain what the biggest factors for returns in corporate credit are, the turmoil in the credit markets has impacted the energy sector, and where they see the biggest opportunities for investors will be coming out of the crisis. They also update Verdad's Fool's Yield thesis that the company has been writing about since January 2020 and that Rasmussen has presented to Real Vision members in the past few months. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Venture capitalist, Bill Tai, has been at the intersection of venture capitalism and innovation since the early days of Silicon Valley before the orchards were replaced with technology company corporate headquarters. He joins Real Vision's Raoul Pal to provide his uniquely qualified perspective, having experience on both the technology development and financing sides of Silicon Valley. Tai and Pal discuss data science, Tai's explanation of the "waves of innovation," and where Tai sees the next wave of innovation currently developing. Tai also talks about his early investment in Bitcoin, his view of digital assets separate from Bitcoin including CryptoKitties, digital currencies like Libra, and what he calls "the Electrodollar." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on a week of muted volatility amid a "quadruple witching" and unprecedented interventions from the world's major central banks. Raoul and Ash analyze the ECB's recent meeting around fiscal policy, and whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BOE) will follow the Fed and go into "hyperdrive," as Raoul puts it. The pair also discusses Apple's decision to close stores in the U.S. as the coronavirus continues to spread. Lastly, the pair looks forward to the upcoming "Crypto Gathering" on Real Vision. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses the recent Wirecard scandal and gives an overview of new action in the burgeoning corporate debt market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisor Group, to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Harrison and Boockvar dive into what the trajectory of inflation will be and how it’s not a monolithic concept, talk about the possibility and implications of a V-shaped recovery, and explore the broader investment opportunities ahead. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains how the wedge between Wall Street and Main Street continues to be driven deeper. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the latest in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Thornton argues that the need for intervention in repo markets starting back in the fall of 2019 indicated that the market wasn't healthy going into the coronavirus shutdown— and that if it was, the level of stimulus markets have received would’ve been unnecessary. Thornton also talks about how the market is currently too hot and what the risks are for speculators going forward. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses how companies are issuing debt at extreme levels and how that bodes ill considering how coronavirus is still a major tail risk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to unpack today's positive retail numbers as well as whether the recession is now "over" (even if in name only). Bennington and Harrison explore what this actually means in the technical sense, but how it may lend itself to a double-dip recession in the same way the Great Depression was. They also discuss the increased spread of the virus, the public perception of COVID-19 wrecking more havoc on the economy, and Jay Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses how the Fed’s announcement on its corporate bond-buying program as well as burgeoning retail sales numbers have supported the stock market rallies this week. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss a day of "risk on risk off" on Wall Street. Ed maps out a new paradigm he's noticing in the world of energy, equities, and the dollar, and Ash places the vacillations of U.S. stocks in context of central bank liquidity and the ongoing pandemic. Ed and Ash also discuss the CALPers bold move into private equity and private debt. In the intro, Jack Farley looks at the shape of the "volatility smile" and discusses the looming bankruptcy risks in the oil and gas sector. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Trevor Mottl, managing director at Lazard Labs, speaks to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about how machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) can inform and transform the investment process – from idea generation to position sizing to risk management. He tells Raoul about the AI team he runs at Lazard Asset Management that uses machine learning to identify patterns in markets too complex for the human brain to recognize in order to reliably generate alpha too obscure for human investors to reliably capture. Mottl also breaks down his three-piece framework of finance – which includes pricing, time horizon, and liquidity – and explains how this framework has shaped his investment philosophy and informed his macro outlook. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison discuss today’s undulating recovery as global equities tried to regain ground lost in yesterday’s market rout. Raoul and Ed explore why today’s snapback wasn’t as strong as expected and Raoul places this discussion within the context of his “unfolding” thesis. In the intro Jack Farley discusses the VIX and a daring attempt by Hertz bondholders to take advantage of the moment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Lloyd Khaner, general partner and CIO at Khaner Capital Management, to discuss his macro outlook for the next year and beyond. Khaner explains some of the growth opportunities he sees in equity markets and breaks down how he determines value in a volatile market saturated with liquidity. In the intro, Peter Cooper gives an update on how the global reopening has affected the spread of coronavirus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Jay Pelosky, CIO and co-founder of TPW Investment Management, to unpack his contrarian and bullish thesis on the economy and markets. Pelosky argues that the big plays for 2020 is not in tech, but in commodities, as well as in value stocks and cyclicals. He explains that the overwhelmingly strong stimulus, both in the forms of monetary and fiscal policies, have undergirded demand in a way that will allow it to spring back later in the year. Pelosky also discusses why this is the decade of Europe and ESG, the growing appreciation for EM currencies, and the potential headwinds that might dampen the current broad appetite for equities. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews the Fed’s latest press release and delves into some of their rate forecasts and economic projections. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss market sentiment in light of NBER's recent announcement that the U.S. slid into recession in February. Bennington and Harrison explore whether market participants are betting that liquidity will mitigate the credit cycle's severity and whether this could be a miscalculation that catches investors off guard, leading to a “double-dip” recession. They also draw comparisons between today’s markets to that of the dot-com era, highlight the shift toward momentum trading, and share their thoughts on how durable damage to demand can bring an unnaturally elevated market crashing down later in the year. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains the surge in new online brokerage accounts and explores particular instances of excess speculation by retail investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison map out their framework for the rest of 2020. Ed and Ash look at the steepening yield curve and the continued ascent of U.S. equities. Ed gives additional color to his macro thesis and reflects on his bullish call in April on Europe’s re-opening. Ed and Ash also look forward to the upcoming interviews with Michael Howell and Darius Dale. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the rising tensions between Germany and the ECB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ric Edelman, chairman and co-founder of Edelman LLC, speaks to Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington about how investors can position themselves for success during this unprecedented crisis. Edelman analyzes the ongoing calamity through the lens of behavioral finance, and gives recommendations for how investors should be thinking about their savings and investments. He recommends that investors take the long-term, thoughtful approach and not worry about short-term price gyrations - but he does prescribe caution for investors who are averse to wild swings.
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Daniel Zwirn, CEO of Arena Investors, kicks off Debt Week by bringing his unique credit framework to Real Vision. Zwirn argues that a decade of cheap money has worsened credit quality, but that nevertheless there are lucrative fixed-income opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. He warns of the risks he sees in leveraged loans (as well as the CLOs that package them), noting the "asset-liability mismatch" as one of his most severe concerns. Other topics include: regulatory change, interest rate risk, and idiosyncratic plays in energy and real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss a roaring day on Wall Street as the U.S. labor market breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at everything from tech valuations to the AUD/USD trade, Raoul and Ash dive deeper into this jam-packed news day to see whether the economy really is on the mend. In the intro, Jack Farley touches on these themes and previews Raoul’s interview with Gerard Minack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst talk about the trajectory of the global recovery and growth—specifically, they explore the exponential increase in the savings rate, the vicious cycle the Fed might find itself in as they continue to support asset prices, and the potential for "zombification"of corporations through misallocated capital. They also dive into how sentiment is currently driving financial markets, why passive investors may not be prepared for the air pockets of potential drawdowns, and how easy monetary policy actually encourages growth deflation. In the intro, Nick Correa analyzes today’s ECB announcement to expand its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior Editor Ash Bennington joins Managing Editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst discuss what “returning to normal” means for markets—whether it’s breaking into a new regime or a return to the status quo. They also dive into “the dollar smile,” where bond yields are headed, and commercial real estate in the UK. In the intro segment, Real Vision’s Nick Correa talks about the 1968 influenza pandemic and how the world’s response to pandemics in the past was vastly different from the response today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to delve into whether the pandemonium in the U.S. will ever spread into capital markets. They analyze the historical performance of markets during times of civil unrest and explore whether U.S. equities have "priced in" the possibility that the ongoing mass protests in the U.S. could accelerate the spread of COVID-19. Ed and Ash also discuss the yield curve and retracement levels for the S&P. In the intro, Real Vision's Nick Correa talks about the 1957 pandemic, the Eisenhower recession, and how they may intersect. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the roiling civil unrest in the U.S. could affect businesses and financial markets. They look at the correlation of the Citi Surprise index and bond yields, and Ed introduces three historical parallels to compare to the current moment. Ed and Ash reaffirm that Real Vision’s core remit is to analyze markets. In the intro, Jack Farley gives an overview of global PMI data and Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast for the S&P 500. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Recently the Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented steps to backstop the market, sending investors scrambling to relearn the “rules of the game,” and inciting arguably justifiable outrage from others. Matt Rowe, CIO of Headwaters Volatility, and Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, debate the utility of this outrage and explore whether the level of shock is justified considering the long history of the “rules changing”. Additionally, they examine the misaligned incentives for investors and governments, try to make sense of the recent rally in equities and the bifurcation of the high-yield market, and look forward at the potential for big surprises like bailouts or the Fed stepping into the equity market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro in the era of coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison talk through the risks and potential upside to growth as European institutions debate bailouts in Europe, the possible ripple effect of President Trump’s call to revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status, and the plausibility of the renminbi becoming a global reserve currency. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses some of the latest economic data coming out of Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. They talk through why US equities are still not suffering even though the real economic data demonstrates an increasingly bleaker picture. In light of that, Harrison and Hirst break down what lessons to draw from this investing environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley looks at the continued layoffs in the airline and tech industries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst analyze what’s happening in Europe, including the recently proposed EU stimulus package, ballooning European debt, and the underlying structure of the eurozone. They also discuss recent moves in equity prices and the current landscape of currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Nick Correa shares the details of both the EU’s and Japan’s proposed stimulus bills for economic relief. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington break down the brewing tensions between China and the United States. They comprehend the consequences of a potential "decoupling" between the two superpowers and analyze the possibility of a new Cold War. Ed and Ash also analyze the continued rise of U.S. equities and look forward to see whether the ongoing crisis will be the shortest recession in history or if there is some "post-snapback malaise" in store. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at what could be the first convertible bond default in the history of Chinese markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss the latest developments in macro and coronavirus. Bennington and Pal discuss the collapsing velocity of money and stagnant US growth, the Canadian and Australian housing markets, and what the future of commercial real estate may look like in a post-coronavirus world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Dena Grayson speaks to Pedro Da Costa about the ongoing efforts of medical professionals to save lives and stop the COVID-19 pandemic in its tracks. She evaluates the promising new drug Remdesivir and discusses her work on similar drugs such as Galidesivir and Favipiravir. She shares her thoughts on herd immunity, the possibility of a vaccine, as well as the different efforts of governments worldwide to contain the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to analyze the state of markets at this unprecedented juncture of uncertainty and to reflect on a lifetime of macro investing. Raoul and Hugh explore how gold could perform in a debt deflation and whether central bank largesse is sufficient to help risk assets weather the storm. After a thorough investigation into the interplay between volatility and price, they contemplate the prospect of a “gilded depression” – one in which cataclysmic economic disaster is kept solvent by never-ending fiscal stimulus and where asset prices are continually re-inflated by incessant injections of central bank liquidity. Hugh can be found on Twitter at @hendry_hugh and on Instagram at hughhendryofficial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Senior editor Ash Bennington sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to explore the latest developments in markets and macro. They dive into why debt mutualization won’t be enough to save Europe, what the elimination of GDP targeting means for China, and how Hong Kong’s limited autonomy is slipping from its grasp with China’s latest security law announcement. The pair also discuss the challenges of a solvency crisis, the rising threat of deflation, and the plummeting two year U.S. Treasury yield. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst sit down to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Nick Correa talks about the new waves of infections in South Korea and the country's unique challenges in containing and stopping the spread. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision’s senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Roger Hirst analyze the latest developments in markets. Bennington and Hirst discuss the implications of fiscal burden-sharing in the European Union within the framework of French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel’s recent joint proposal for a €500 billion aid fund. The pair also unpack the technical and supply and demand dynamics driving oil markets, the concentration risk in the largest stocks of the S&P 500, and key technical levels in US equity markets. During the intro, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the reopening of Spain, and the unique hurdles the Spanish will face as they begin their journey to economic recovery. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the retracement of the S&P 500 amid a distressing Bank of America study that found that only 10 percent of fund managers are anticipating the V-shaped recovery that has been promised. Ed and Ash also explore the troubling stories coming out of Latin America, the trouble in the European banking sector, and the potential of a redenomination of the Euro into legacy currencies. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a closer look at PNC Financial’s sale of its stake in Blackrock. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Long before the market’s most recent correction, underfunded pensions were already a huge concern. Now that prices have fallen along with interest rates, pensions are in an even worse position than before. Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse, returns to update Ed Harrison and Real Vision viewers on the state of the global pension system with a specific focus on how the short vol trade and private market investments have and will continue to be affected by the crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision Senior Editor Ash Bennington hosts Managing Editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a roaring day on Wall Street. They analyze the extreme bullishness in today's session through the lens of Fed Chair Powell's remarks, and discuss yield divergences in European sovereigns, as well as the valuation of European banks. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at recent 13F filings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Balaji Srinivasan is a highly accomplished investor, entrepreneur, executive, and academic. In this conversation with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Srinivasan unpacks his tech-centric view of combating the coronavirus — informed by his background in the medical testing space and his Ph.D. work in microbial genetics at Stanford. Srinivasan also served as the Chief Technical Officer at the digital currency behemoth CoinBase and as a general partner at the storied Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Srinivasan also shares his perspective on what changes the US government needs to institute in order to compete with China to control the coronavirus outbreak. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins Senior Editor Ash Bennington to update viewers on his "Unfolding" thesis about the trajectory of the COVID crisis and its effects on the economy and markets. He also unpacks his views about the solvency risks in the BBB bond market and reviews highlights from his interviews with legendary investors Howard Marks and Kyle Bass. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison is joined by Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and the coronavirus crisis. Peter Cooper talks about how China, Hong Kong, and South Korea are facing setbacks with a new wave of cases. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's senior editor Ash Bennington sits down with managing editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest in macro, markets, and coronavirus. They dive into the psychological and economic repercussions that the shutdown has had on both New York City and London. They also talk about how the Fed's intervention in markets has played a role in supporting asset prices, the level of uncertainty about where they will go in the future, and why currency markets are the optimal place to express a macro position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. They dive into the havoc wrecked on the jobs market, the continuously moving plans to reopen the US economy, and Dr. Fauci's warning today to the US senate. They also review what's happening in the Eurozone and which European economies may be a model for the US's own reopening. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Professor Mark Blyth and Professor Adam Tooze explore how coronavirus is laying bare the hidden risks embedded within our financial systems and how central banks worldwide are scrambling to paper over those chasms of danger. To them, it seems that the Federal Reserve has rewritten its remit, and they discuss how rather than try and keep prices stable or keep unemployment low, the sole focus of the Fed right now seems to be supporting asset prices at any cost, even if that means bailing out leveraged entities who took on too much risk. They also discuss Europe and how this crisis is heightening the contradictions within the Eurozone and pushing the European banking system to the brink. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With every day of lockdown and every dollar of stimulus, policy and markets are becoming more and more intertwined. That is why Pedro da Costa has been conducting a series of interviews with central bankers, policymakers, and the economists who inform their views. Pedro continues this series with Dr. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Together they examine the efficacy of the current fiscal and monetary policy response and how this crisis is affecting globalization, emerging markets, and the state of the European Union. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's Ash Bennington and Managing Editor Ed Harrison discuss Raoul's Expert View, "Global Recession - What's Next?", which was released today. Bennington and Harrison then take a deep dive into the real economy with a special focus on the risks posed by debt deflation. The pair also talk about the reopening of the global economy with an eye toward recent events in Germany. In the intro, Jack Farley looks at a dramatic new chapter in the WeWork saga. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal as they look forward to the biggest voyage Real Vision has ever gone on: Global Recession: What's Next? Over the course of this two-week content campaign, some of the brightest minds in finance will be sharing their views with you. Raoul and Ash also discuss the broad impact and context of the coronavirus crisis and look ahead to what we will learn in the coming weeks from economic data. In the intro, Jack Farley analyzes the unprecedented labor statistics and shares the story of one U.S. worker who lost his life on the job. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Columnist for HousingWire, Logan Mohtashami of AMC Lending Group sits down with Real Vision's Ash Bennington to discuss the "complete meltdown" he sees in the residential mortgage space during the coronavirus crisis. Mohtashami and Bennington discuss housing prices, the dynamics in the mortgage market in a time of crisis, and the overall lending environment. The pair also touch on the economics of US demography, commercial real estate, and the quantum shifts in retail property in commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison is joined by Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and the coronavirus crisis. Harrison and Hirst examine the effects of central bank liquidity on asset markets. Real Vision’s Peter Cooper gives an overview of the Eurozone’s economic future, the challenges Italy faces next as they descend from the peak of the outbreak, and Norway’s central bank cutting rates to zero. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Roger Hirst. Today, Bennington and Hirst explore the relationship between fundamental and technical analysis in the context of the Coronavirus crisis. The pair also discuss the role of the European Central Bank in light of the recent landmark decision by the German constitutional court. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Tony Greer, editor of Morning Navigator, discuss recent market action. Bennington and Greer discuss price action in the S&P 500, whipsawing oil markets, and the reopening of the US economy. Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses shifts in consumer spending over the last few weeks, J. Crew filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and Hertz being granted emergency forbearance to avoid bankruptcy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss recent developments in markets, macro, and the coronavirus crisis. Today, Bennington and Harrison discuss Warren Buffett and his statements at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting, the state of the airline industry, and the risks and limitations of reopening the global economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Peter Brandt, Founder of Factor LLC, speaks to Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, about the dramatic price action he’s witnessing in equities, commodities, currencies, gold, and bitcoin. A veteran technical analyst, Brandt tells Pal about the charts on his radar and how they are informing his investing perspective. Raoul discusses how he interprets these chart patterns through the lens of dominant market narratives and shares how they are informing his macro framework. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Thomas Hoenig, distinguished senior fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center, joins Pedro da Costa, columnist at MarketWatch and Forbes, to discuss Dr. Hoenig's experience as former chief executive of the Kansas City Fed and former vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Drawing upon his experience as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's principal organ for making large asset purchases, Dr. Hoenig discusses the current extreme measures that the Fed is taking in order to support asset prices during this unparalleled exogenous shock that the quarantine has inflicted on markets. They explore how large the Fed’s balance sheet could get and what a sustained zero-interest policy will mean for investors, workers, and employers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal for an exploration of how to find the macro signal amid the noise of economic indicators, alternative data, and confounding price action. Raoul describes an alarming pattern he's been noticing in data on foot traffic, and gives his view on whether fiscal and monetary policy will be able to "paper over the cracks." Raoul and Ash then analyze the recent mortgage payment figures, and have a little bit of fun with Elon Musk's recent antics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's Managing Editor Ed Harrison sits down with Roger Hirst to discuss what's going on in markets today. Harrison and Hirst touch on the economic numbers coming out of the U.S. and Europe, the possibility of China exporting deflation, and how the market will move forward in light of this information.
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Real Vision's Ash Bennington sits down with Roger Hirst to discuss the latest economic data: dismal GDP numbers, consumer spending, as well as other stats in the real economy. Bennington and Hirst analyze the recent technical levels on the S&P, and explore how the new COVID-19 treatments being tested could impact the timing and pace of re-opening the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss recent developments in markets, macro, and the coronavirus crisis. Today, Bennington and Harrison discuss the U.S. recession outlook, economic sentiment, and whipsawing prices in global oil markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison for analysis of the day’s events. Bennington and Harrison discuss the shape & speed of the coming recovery as well as the different economic trajectories of the U.S. and Europe.
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Ash Bennington hosts Tony Greer, Editor of the Morning Navigator, to get a trader's-eye view of what’s happening in markets. Greer unpacks the underlying supply & demand dynamics of what drives markets higher during dismal news cycles in this must-see wrap-up of the week’s market action.
With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all Real Vision members a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up with the dynamic news cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, Managing Editor Ed Harrison hosts Roger Hirst for a discussion about emerging market credit risk, helicopter money, and the unwinding of the commodity daisy chain.
With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all Real Vision members a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up with the dynamic news cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Roger Hirst for a discussion about governments’ response to coronavirus and its implications for fiscal and monetary policy. The pair also cover the broader outlook for the global economy and the risk of structural changes caused by the pandemic.
With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all Real Vision members a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up with the dynamic news cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison, Real Vision’s managing editor, to break down the day’s events. In today’s episode, Bennington and Harrison continue their discussion on oil markets — and tie the broader macroeconomic fundamentals into technical market dynamics. The pair also discuss MMT, the structure of the USO ETF, and emerging market debt forbearance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison, Real Vision’s Managing Editor, to break down the day’s events. Today, the pair take a deep dive into the chaos of the profoundly fractured oil markets. Bennington and Harrison also discuss the long-term prognosis for the eurozone in a post-coronavirus world. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses the teetering CLO market and analyzes a short play that has paid off big time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison, Real Vision’s Managing Editor, to break down the week’s events. The pair cover the U.S. banking sector, risks to the commercial real estate market, Russian central bank policy action, and compare and contrast the timing and trajectory of the COVID Crisis to the GFC. Bennington and Harrison end on a discussion of the changing role of China in the global political and financial system in the wake of the current crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, Roger Hirst and Ed Harrison discuss FX markets, high yield credit, and EM fixed-income through the lens of Brent Johnson’s “dollar milkshake theory” and Mike Green’s thoughts on the concentration of capital. Harrison and Hirst analyze the impact that the Fed’s yield curve control will have on net interest margins for banks and whether central banks will draw a “line in the sand.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Roger Hirst to talk markets and economics. In this episode, Bennington and Hirst discuss the dismal economic data coming out of the U.S. including industrial production, retail sales, and the Empire State Manufacturing index. The pair also consider oil prices, the crisis’s impact on the money market, and potential durable shifts to the structure of the American economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss the day’s events. In this episode, the pair unpack new GDP growth forecasts, the latest economic warning from the IMF, and the first round of Q1 2020 bank earnings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss the events of recent days as the coronavirus crisis grinds forward. Harrison and Bennington focus on the role of banks in financial crises as a transmission mechanism to the broader economy. The pair also consider risks to the high yield market and the role that exchange traded products play in providing liquidity in the global debt markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision CEO & co-founder Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington for a big picture look at the events of the last few weeks in the wake of coronavirus with a focus on the global economy. Pal and Bennington discuss the broad changes brought on by the virus, including its impact on US equity markets, the bond market, long-term and durable realignments in the global economy and supply chains, and the rising tide of political risk and fragility across the globe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision's Roger Hirst and Ed Harrison talk about the Fed’s intervention into high yield ETFs and whether that support would spill over into equity markets to support shares on a sustained basis. In that context, they analyze Mike Green’s theory that continued passive investment flows would help equities back to new all-time highs, and they examine how oil markets are a barometer of market sentiment as well as demand in the real economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision’s Ash Bennington hosts Roger Hirst to discuss the rally in US equities against the backdrop of coronavirus. Hirst and Bennington discuss the rally from both a technical and fundamental perspective, weaving in the narrative of the breakdown in the real economy. The pair also discuss the monetary and fiscal response to the crisis, challenges in the real estate business, and the ultimate path forward to reopening the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all users a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up the dynamic news cycle. Real Vision's Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison unpack the seemingly widening gulf between macroeconomic events and price action in markets. In this episode, they discuss the impact of coronavirus on the global labor market, loan forbearance, the potential for dislocations in the credit markets, and the most recent medical developments on the ground. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With markets and headlines moving faster than ever, we are now bringing all users a new ultra-timely show to help you keep up the dynamic news cycle. Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Managing Editor Ed Harrison to discuss the apparent disconnect between today’s market euphoria and the severe risks and uncertainty now facing the world economy. The pair discuss spiking unemployment, political risk, ballooning debt, and the corporate earnings outlook. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Gio Valiante, founder of Fearless Golf and head performance coach at Point72 Asset Management, coaches individuals at the highest levels of sports and finance. Dr. Valiante provides tips and stories focused on improving performance and sustaining excellence over long periods of time. Please note that this podcast is comprised of shorter clips that previously appeared on Real Vision, compiled here for ease of listening — introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mark Ritchie II, CIO of RTM Capital Advisors, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss how he has re-positioned his investments after going 100% cash in December. He believes that the reaction to the Fed’s cut over these next few weeks are crucial to market tone for the next six to nine months. Filmed on July 2019 in New York - introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, sits down with Raoul Pal to examine the indicators that are warning that the economic cycle is reaching an inflection point. Wolfe and Pal discuss the idea that inflated valuations in venture capital are being caused by the incremental buyer’s desperate search for growth. Wolfe warns that if the cycle indeed turns, a liquidity crisis could emerge. Filmed on July 9, 2019 in New York. Introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is there a path for bitcoin to become the new gold standard? Economist Saifedean Ammous, author of the ‘The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking,’ joins Real Vision to share his views on both gold & bitcoin. From an Austrian perspective, he points out the paradoxes of Keynesianism and details the implications his thesis might have on the global monetary system. Hosted by Marty Bent. Filmed on October 9, 2019 in New York. Introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Kyle Bass sits down with retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding to discuss the reality inside China. Spalding spent years living in China as Defense Attache in Bejing & served as the chief China strategist for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Spalding has deep knowledge of the people, culture, economy, & military of China in and examines the multifaceted threat to the US posed by the rising Asian superpower. Filmed on September 27, 2019 in Washington D.C. - Introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Earlier this summer, we released two interviews debating Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s “Drop Gold,” campaign. Grayscale is a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group founded by Barry Silbert. He provides the argument for Bitcoin and explains the thinking behind the “Drop Gold,” campaign to Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal. Then Roy Sebag, CEO and founder of Goldmoney, provides his rebuttal to Stephan Spears of McEwen Mining. These interviews were published June 2019. Introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at Quill Intelligence, interviews George Goncalves of The Bond Strategist in his first appearance on Real Vision. As former insiders of the Dallas Fed and US Treasury primary dealers, Danielle and George deconstruct the US Dollar liquidity problems and help clarify the major structural issues confronting the repo markets. Filmed on September 18, 2019 in New York - introduction provided by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Christopher Balding, associate professor at Fulbright University Vietnam, delves into the many layers of the Chinese economy with Mike Green of Thiel Macro. Balding and Green discuss the inconsistencies in the overarching bullish narrative on China, and explain how the debt machine works in the Chinese real estate markets. Filmed on August 27, 2019 in Los Angeles and published on Real Vision September 6, 2019 - introduced by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Whitney Tilson details his transformation from momentum trader to an investor living by Warren Buffett’s advice that “it’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” Tilson shares his views on WeWork’s IPO trouble, Amazon, Fannie Mae, and beaten-up European financials. This interview was published as a video on Real Vision in September, and the podcast introduction is provided by Alex Rosenberg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Barry Silbert is the founder and CEO of Digital Currency Group, a cryptocurrency investment trust that is now worth as much today as the whole asset class was five years ago. In this conversation with Raoul Pal, Silbert discusses the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies, as well as some of the most promising blockchain businesses being build today. This interview was published as a video on Real Vision in June, and the podcast introduction is provided by Alex Rosenberg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Brian Reynolds, former chief market strategist at Rosenblatt Securities, tells why unfunded pension liabilities are the real engine for the U.S. credit boom, and how this financial engineering has produced one of the greatest bull markets ever. A legal mandate requires these funds to earn 7.5% returns, and when they fail to do so, taxpayers foot the bill. As a larger percentage of these pensions are moved onto corporate balance sheets, the tightrope these pension funds walk gets more and more precarious. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bitcoin, Gold, and the Future of Macro Investing (Dan Tapiero with Raoul Pal) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Russell Clark of Horseman Capital warns that a Chinese currency shock could be the spark that burns down the entire global economy. In an hour-long conversation with Real Vision editor Roger Hirst, which was released as a video on Real Vision in July, Clark forecasts that Chinese policymakers will eventually respond to the trade war by changing the rules of the currency game. He then walks through the massive consequences that he believes this action could have. Intro provided by Alex Rosenberg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What will the future look like, and what will that future mean for businesses and investors? Michael Green of Thiel Macro sits down with Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital for an incredibly though-provoking conversation about technology, manufacturing, the economy, and investment opportunities. Alex Rosenberg introduces the audio version of this long piece, which was filmed in June 2018. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Social media power, the proliferation of artificial intelligence, and the destruction of the rules-based global order. How are these massive trends connected? Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and the mind behind the Global Macro Investor, sits down with Dee Smith of Strategic Insight Group for a wide-ranging and deep-diving conversation about these topics and more. Alex Rosenberg introduces the audio version of this long piece, which was filmed in August. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
One of the most widely watched videos on Real Vision this year was investment visionary Kiril Sokoloff’s interview of hedge fund legend Stanley F. Druckenmiller. Now we are releasing the audio version of this incredible interview to podcast listeners. Alex Rosenberg and Brian Price introduce the piece, which was filmed in September. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
One of the most beloved videos released this year on Real Vision was our interview with Joe Duran, the founder and CEO of United Capital. Now we are allowing podcast listeners a chance to hear the full audio version of the piece. The man who conducted the October interview, Brian Price, introduces it alongside fellow Real Vision editor Jake Merl. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As a holiday treat, we are bringing you Mark Cuban’s full conversation with Kyle Bass. The video version of this interview was released on Real Vision in November 2017. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What do we know about the strange places we’ve been? In this season finale, Justine, Alex and Roger provide updates about the topics previously covered in the “The Knock-on Effect,” touching on the bright-red bugs behind the American aperitivo resurgence, the market potential for spicy hazelnuts, privatization of space and the moon, the glut of cheese, the existence of moon cheese, vaccine-flavored honey and the uniquely British appeal of Mr Kipling cakes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will local efforts to curb obesity mean more states will ban grocery taxes? Justine and Alex discuss – also touching on taxpayer-subsidized soda purchases, Big Soda’s tobacco-like tactics, the trouble with slippery slope arguments, and the relative quality of different states’ tap water. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Does inflation increase or decrease wealth inequality? Alex recently got into a Twitter feud on that very subject, but guest co-host Jake Merl sets him straight. They also touch on Fed policy, the quality of government data, and the perils of replying to tweets while walking. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why does rapid population growth in urban centers mean we may see more exports from India? Alex and Justine discuss — also touching on the worldwide obesity epidemic, the state of the world in 1800, and the general decline of sexual activity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What does China’s shifting attitude toward intellectual property mean for the fruit industry? Justine and Alex discuss - also touching on the Bacardi family and the quest for the next celebrity apple. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision’s Ash Bennington joins Alex to reflect on a trope frequently heard in the cryptocurrency world these days: “The best projects are built in bear markets.” Plus: The differences between crypto conferences and muni bond conferences, why Bitcoin Cash has become a punchline, and what Alex learned from an Aria bellhop. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How does the recent mandate to electronically log trucker hours impact the labor force, Amazon and U.S. consumers? Justine and Alex speak with Will Pletcher, president of transportation company MCAH Ltd, about surging wages and costs in trucking. Will also sets the record straight on some common trucker stereotypes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If the trade war winds down, why might we see more security measures on wine bottles? Alex and Justine discuss, touching on nail-biting auctions, vineyard pests and new uses for the blockchain. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How does the health food craze contribute to the production of drones? Justine and Alex discuss, touching on global smuggling rings, food fakery and sauerkraut flavored honey. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If the Republicans maintain control of Congress, why might it become easier to buy stolen goods by accident? Alex and Justine discuss, also touching on wordy regulations, the emotional reaction to wealth disparities, and Justine's mixed driving record. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why does a recent mandate for increased workplace surveillance spell trouble for retailers? Justine and Alex discus — also touching on implanted microchips, byzantine trucking regulations, and Alex’s affinity for “the open road.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Who stands to profit from the next era of space exploration? Alex, Justine and Roger discuss, touching on international space law, libertarians on Mars, and Justine's favorite intergalactic snack food. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What impact will the growth of online advertising have on your local grocery store? Justine, Alex and Roger discuss — also touching on cookie wars, mysterious Senate hearing testimony, and Roger’s favorite breakfast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What does cheaper South African biltong have to do with a rally in large-cap U.S. tech stocks? Roger, Justine and Alex discuss the knock-on effects of the shifts in emerging market currencies— also touching on earnings excuses, the myopic U.S. rally, and romantic questions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What impact will the proliferation of asthma have on innovation in the cargo shipping industry? Justine and Alex discuss in this podcast-only episode of the Knock-On Effect, also touching on massive kites, the dregs of the fuel-making process, and Alex’s Model UN days. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will China’s efforts to clean up its image put more water bottles inside shoes, lead to a recycling black market and raise the costs for shipping garbage? Alex and Justine discuss — also touching on virgin plastics, the voyage of a garbage barge in the 1980s, and the Polish trash mafia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will the crisis in Turkey lead hazelnuts to be covered in wasabi? Alex and Justine discuss — also touching on Nutella, “hot money,” and Japanese snacking habits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will turmoil in Turkey send global markets skidding? And why might such an economically small country have an incredibly outsized effect? Raoul Pal, co-founder CEO of Real Vision and founder of The Global Macro Investor, discusses with Justine and Alex. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Are market participants misunderstanding the current state of liquidity - and if so, what are the potential knock-on effects? Mark Dow, founder of Dow Global Advisors and author of the Behavioral Macro Blog, discusses with Roger, Justine and Alex. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will rising popularity of almond milk make it more expensive to store postage stamps? Justine and Alex discuss — also touching on bovine productivity, disused limestone mines, and the “Illuminati of Cheese.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will rising yields on Treasury notes sink the cheapest vodkas? Alex and Justine discuss – also touching on the causes of recession, Scottish drinkers, and the impact of Fed policy. Plus, a controversial USDA maneuver to clamp down on speedy traders. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will rising concerns about China’s trade-related retaliation lead diamonds to become clearer? Justine and Alex discuss – also touching on Jules Verne novels, iPhone batteries and a new version of blue. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will higher stock prices lead more American to pick feet? Alex and Justine discuss, also touching on income inequality, one very fancy Manhattan store, and the marital habits of reptile owners. Plus, Justine explains why companies seems to be so afraid of the number “4.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How did the modern age of central banking begin? In this story previously heard in a 2017 episode of “Adventures in Finance,” Grant Williams, Aaron Chan and Ben Hunt look at the fascinating history of the man some consider the godfather of central banking, John Law. Then Alex and Justine draw some present-day conclusions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will a rising dollar lead to a proliferation of ice cream flavors that go far beyond vanilla? Justine and Alex discuss, touching on thieves in Madagascar, beaver glands, whisky maturation and the globalized food production process. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will a higher fed funds rates lead to a decline in the number of Americans who play the lottery? Alex and Justine discuss, along the way touching on the future of transportation, moving to L.A., the wisdom of playing the lottery, and Justine’s favorite writer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will changing Chinese demographics lead to an increase of plastic strips in doorways? Justine and Alex discuss - and in so doing, also touch on Ikea trips, online dating, modern food production, and President Bush’s congratulatory message to President Obama. Then Alex explains how a horse racing term could apply to what’s ahead for stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will U.S. tariffs lead to a resurgence for the global cork industry? Justine and Alex explain, along the way discussing Australian wine, cork shoes and the Chinese consumer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will higher oil prices result in disappointed craft beer drinkers? Justine and Alex discuss. Plus, Alex delves into the world of academia, and discusses an interesting finding about the way stocks react to earnings announcements. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Why will rising rates leave tire tracks on the world’s great beaches? Alex, Roger and Justine discuss. Plus, a high-pressure debate over whether stocks will fall 20% within the next year. Filmed on May 21, 2018. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this inaugural episode of “The Knock-On Effect,” Justine and Roger try to convince Alex that a U.S. crackdown on free trade could lead American red velvet cakes to turn pink. Yes, really. Plus, Alex takes issue with Charlie Munger’s shocking bitcoin comparison. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What’s the single best piece of advice you’ve ever received, and how have you applied it over the course of your investment career? In this episode of the “Adventures in Finance” series, eight of our favorite prior guests join us once again to answer that question. You’ll hear from Marc Cohodes, Pippa Malmgren, Chris Cole, Ben Hunt, Jawad Mian, Simon Mikhailovich, Dee Smith and Jeff Snider – and if you don’t walk away from this series of short interviews with something new to think about it, go back and listen again! Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade selfies, people who hate their jobs, and you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Real Vision’s CEO and macro-economist, Raoul Pal, offers his latest thoughts on the bond market, the dollar, oil and the business cycle as well as an update on what the future holds for Real Vision. In this week’s Long Short, Raoul and Grant discuss all things swine. Log on to www.realvision.com/adventuresinfinance to find out how you can be part Real Vision’s exciting financial media revolution. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With the 10-year yield peaking above 3% this week, is the low finally in for the 10-year yield? How high is it liable to rise? How might the Fed and inflation play into this? And what could it all mean for equities? Julian Bridgen of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners joins to discuss all that and more. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade ancient appliances, Billy Bragg and middle seats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
After a treacherous few months for equities, investor sentiment appears to have turned relatively ursine. But is the reality that stocks will continue to rise in the short-term at least? Neil Azous of Rareview Macro makes just that case. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade hip-hop, the London skyline, overspending millennials and non-conventional art supplies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Can Tesla still take over the world – or is the end nigh for the ambitious electric car company? Charley Grant of the Wall Street Journal and Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital join to discuss. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade the political circus, Twitter debates and scheming seniors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
China appears to be taking a major step to combat the dominance of the U.S. dollar. How significant could that move be, and what political, economic, and market changes might result? Luke Gromen, founder of research firm Forest for the Trees, joins for a deeply insightful discussion. Plus, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade Saudi leadership, California regulations, and flat-falling April Fools’ Day jokes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
After a tumultuous first quarter for stocks, what will the rest of the year bring? Nothing good, according to famed economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He outlines what could be ahead for the economy and markets – and outlines some areas where investors might turn to safety. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade weight-losing poker players, sexy magazine covers and replying all. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will the Facebook-Cambridge Analytica fracas actually turn the tide of public opinion against the social media giant? Jesse Felder of The Felder Report and Peter Atwater of Financial Insyghts join to discuss. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade Jerome Powell, scientific research and predictive coffee-based drinks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Advertising behemoth WPP has run into massive troubles. Does this just reflect the flow of ad dollars into Google and Facebook, or does it suggest bigger problems with the global economy? Grant describes his findings, while Daniel Ives of GBH Insights takes the other side. Meanwhile in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade “King Dollar,” Russian airplane engineers and ETF-related class-action lawsuits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What’s driving the modern movement toward protectionist tariffs and trade wars? Where will it all lead, and what lessons can we draw from history? Geopolitics consultant Peter Zeihan and historian Marc Palen discuss. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade airline seats, trend followers and Wu Tang Clan fans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Will it soon be gold’s time to shine once again? Rick Rule of Sprott Global Resources, Simon Mikhailovich Tocqueville Bullion Reserve and Ronald-Peter Stoeferle of Incrementum AG weigh in. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade tennis, pant-ripping lasers and flighty models. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stock market volatility has surged to levels unseen in years. So is the era of unusual market calm now over and done with? Or was this latest episode just a temporary bit of turmoil? Steve Diggle of Volpes Investment Management and Dennis Davitt of Harvest Volatility Management weigh in. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade Apple, mediocre Olympic athletes and Jennifer Lawrence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Ken Kurson has been many things: A reporter, a rocker, a newspaper editor and a cryptocurrency evangelist. He’s also a supporter and occasional speechwriter for President Donald Trump. This week, he sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss his varied careers – and to explain why he is a big believer in the current president. Plus, in the “Things I Got Wrong” segment, Nick Colas of DataTrek Research discusses the importance of having confidence at market turning points. And in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade Rolls-Royce SUVs, terrifying robots and mass-media volatility coverage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bond prices appear to be in the midst of a striking dive. So can we blame bonds for the stock market drop? Is the decades-long bond bull market finally over? And where will the 10-year Treasury yield finally settle out? Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra Partners and Greg Weldon of “Weldon Live” join to discuss. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams, Alex Rosenberg and James Gibb trade volatility, Tesla and network TV. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The crypto craze has made dedicated investors and traders out of many people who’ve never before given much thought to finance. What’s driven those people into bitcoin and other tokens, where do they see prices going, and how are they reacting to the recent plunge? We talk to a wide swath of crypto investors around the world to find out. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade sleep, Jeremy Corbyn and home-made New Zealand islands. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
With China’s plenum out of the way, what’s ahead for the Chinese economy? How much influence does the government have, and how successful has the transition to a consumer-based economy been? Finally, what does it all mean for the global growth and inflation outlook? Tian Yang of Variant Perception and Louis Gave of Gavekal weigh in. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade ICOs, Liberian leadership and lifeguard buffness. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A year after Donald Trump’s inauguration, we take a close look at the president’s performance. How well has President Trump done? Should market bulls thank him for the recent rally? And how great is the risk of a significant policy misstep? Experts R.P. Eddy and Pippa Malmgren join to discuss. Plus, in the Long/Short segment, Grant and Alex trade felons, bitcoin and reality. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
At long last, a Tesla bull steps up to retort Mark Spiegel’s bear case on the electric car company. Rob Maurer, host of the Tesla Daily podcast, makes an impassioned case for both the company and the stock. Plus, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade Nike, Hedy Lamarr and Scottish spiders in this week’s Long/Short segment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant looks back at some of his favorite moments from the podcast, reflecting on some of the boldest calls, sharpest insights and most meaningful stories he’s heard. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is an inflation spike around the corner – and if so, what effects could that have? To find out, Grant speaks to Jawad Mian of Stray Reflections, Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report, and Peter Boockvar of Bookmark Advisors. Each gives his take on where we are in terms of inflation now, and where we could be headed in the year ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant and James are joined by two of the most seasoned volatility traders in the world, David Dredge of City Financial and Chris Cole of Artemis Capital Management, to discuss the curious absence of volatility in 2017 and whether they see a return to more unpredictable moves in financial markets during 2018. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets offers his positive assessment of the outlook for the big tech giants who have led the market rally while Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report and host of the podcast Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom returns to Adventures in Finance with some words of caution as he sees signs that both public opinion and the companies’ own performance are beginning to turn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Peter Atwater (Financial Insyghts) and Ben Hunt (Salient) are masters of how to measure confidence in both the economy and in markets. In conversation with Grant Williams, they break down their methods, and share some surprising insights about where we stand right now. Peter Atwater explains how “hubris” led him astray in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On the eve of the Holiday shopping season, Stephanie Pomboy (MacroMavens) and Dana Telsey (Telsey Advisory Group) stake very different positions about the health of the retail space and the consumer. Then Jim Sullivan (Green Street Advisors) explains what it all means for the real estate sector. Plus, Mark Spiegel (Stanphyl Capital) discusses a key mistake he made early in his investing career and the valuable lesson he learned as a corporate insider. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Three contributors to the Real Vision Think Tank discuss their views on the most important areas upon which investors should currently be focusing. Maleeha Bengali of MB Commodity Corner, Tony Greer of TG Macro and Larry McDonald of The Bear Traps Report discuss base metals markets, crude oil, Chinese debt and data and the tug-of-war that is the Trump Tax Plan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Is this a fork in the Fed’s road? President Trump has nominated Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Whether Powell will continue down the same path of Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke before her, remains an open question. Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former advisor to Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and author of Fed Up, says that Powell, in combination with other new faces at the central bank, could be poised to effect some serious change. Miles Kimball, professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder, isn’t so sure. The real debate, however, is how Fed ought to operate, particularly once the next crisis crops its head. Booth and Kimball emerge as polar opposites here, with Booth advising a retreat from unconventional policies designed to stimulate the economy, and Kimball recommending that the Fed take interest rates sharply negative in the next downturn. More broadly, Kimball is a fan of rigorous action from the Fed, while Booth would like to see more humility in the Eccles Building. Once the sides have been staked in the Fed debate, Booth takes her leave of this planet, and tells us what she would bring on a trip to Mars. And speaking of humility, Kimball closes out the episode by offering up something he got wrong. Interestingly, it concerns not finance, but fat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Amidst a shift in the narrative surrounding Tesla after a series of production issues and mounting losses, Mark B. Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital Partners makes the bear case for the electric car manufacturer and explains why increasing competition from a series of luxury carmakers, advances in battery technology and the increasing scepticism surrounding Elon Musk’s outlandish promises are combining to set the company up for an uncomfortable ride… in the wrong direction. Mark then bravely climbs aboard one of Musk’s Space X rockets to Mars and lets us know what he takes with him. And in Things I Got Wrong, Dr. Pippa Malmgren offers two valuable lessons she learned about having the courage of your convictions (and what to do when you are proven wrong) and how making certain compromises in a man’s world are perhaps not the right path for a young, ambitious woman to take. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The origins of bitcoin predate most people’s understanding and this week, with the aid of Trace Meyer, of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast, and Bruce Kleinman, author of The Bitcoin Tutorial, we trace the rise of bitcoin and the blockchain from their unceremonious unveiling to the world in a simple, pseudonymous 8-page White Paper in October 2008 to the recent hard and soft forks. We look at the architecture and the technology underpinning this revolutionary protocol, decode some of the more complex ideas and, amidst a tsunami of ICO offerings, try to assess the future for cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, we recreate the events of that tumultuous time through the eyes of people who found themselves trying to navigate the biggest drop in Dow Jones history. The legendary Art Cashin takes us behind the scenes at the NYSE, while Bill Fleckenstein, David Hay, Michael Lewitt and Greg Weldon share their personal stories alongside Michael Oliver and Trader Vic – Victor Sperandeo who famously predicted the crash a few weeks before the event. Lastly, we hear the incredible story of hedge fund manager Richard Pomboy whose foresight saved his investors millions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dr. Harald Malmgren, senior advisor to four US Presidents (Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon & Ford) joins Grant to recount his experiences in the White House and Pentagon during the thirteen days of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 – a period where the world came within hours of a full-scale nuclear war. Harald explains how he and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara’s famous ‘Whizz Kids’ were tasked with not only helping find a solution to the biggest diplomatic crisis of the Cold War, but design a strategic plan for conflict should the unthinkable happen. From the confusion caused in Congress by the concept of Megadeaths to the people who stepped up behind the scenes, Harald takes us inside the Kennedy White House at its most fraught and shares how today’s tensions on the Korean Peninsula look to a man who has stood on the edge of oblivion. In our “Things I Got Wrong” segment, Forest For The Trees Founder and President, Luke Gromen, shares a pair of mistakes he made either side of the 2008 Credit Crisis and outlines how they changed the way he invests today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A truly insightful and at times hard-hitting interview with Preston Pysh, host of The Investors Podcast. What’s it like to go from commanding a company of Apache helicopters in Afghanistan, as part of the 101st Airborne, to navigating the markets on wall street and co-hosting one of the world’s top investing podcasts? What can you learn from combat experience that can help maintain mental fortitude as a trader? We also send Preston to Mars and find out just what he can’t live without. In our “Things I Got Wrong” segment, Tim Price, from Price Value Partners in London… explains how a strongly-held, post-2008 conviction got him into trouble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant Williams welcomes Jim Grant- legendary financial author and founder of the twice monthly journal on financial markets, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Together they discuss Jim’s rise to literary prominence from the time he was a gunner on the USS Hornet at the age of 17 through to his founding of Grant’s. We learn his views on the incredible rate increases of the mid 1980’s, what the end game would be for Central Banks, what he would do if he was FED chairman, when he thought the devaluation of the Dollar really began, and what would he take with him on a one-way trip to mars? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Grant Williams to talk about the defining moments in his life which took him to Wall Street in the 1960s and to Russia and China on a motorbike in the 1980s. Jim talks about how important non-consensus thinking has been throughout his career, explains how the current troubles in North Korea could provide the investment opportunity of a lifetime … and let’s Hugh Hendry know exactly what’s in his pocket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Always candid, often hilarious, Hugh talks openly about his experience in 2008 when his fund returned nearly 50% as markets melted down around him, about the fear he confronts every time he puts on a trade, his typically canny tactical approach to debating the fellow Scot he calls ‘The Best Speaker in the World’ and takes us back in time to a party in Moscow at an Oligarch’s apartment when he discovered the secret contents of an investing legend’s trouser pocket… Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Season 2 of Adventures in Finance kicks off with Kyle Bass joining Grant for this week’s entire episode. Kyle shares some of the Defining Moments of his life and explains how they shaped him. He tells us a story of a disastrous trade gone wrong, answers listener’s questions from the Real Vision Mailbag, and explains what he’d take on a rocket ship to Mars. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant and Aaron cap off the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance as they are joined by the founder of Vulpes Investment Management, Steve Diggle, where he discusses his love of long-distance running, his career as a university boxer, and the tranquility of diving. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant and Aaron continue the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance as they are joined by Mark Yusko, Founder and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, where he discusses his passion for philanthropy, the influence of legendary college coaches on his thinking, and the importance of solitude on one's ability to think deeply. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant and Aaron continue the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance as they are joined by Jawad Mian, founder of Stray Reflections, to discuss the philosophical underpinnings of his worldviews, how to create a mindset that lives in the present moment, why he went from buying hundreds of books to reading just a few of them multiple times. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant and Aaron continue the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance and turn-off from the beaten path as they are joined by the Pippa Malmgren to discuss drone technology, interesting summer reads, and the steps she takes to stay balanced and creative while multi-tasking as a mother, Presidential advisor, keynote speaker, startup founder, economist, and bestselling author. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grant and Aaron kick off the 2017 Summer Series by addressing some of the most pressing listener questions during the first season of Adventures in Finance. The guys are also joined by Jeffrey Snider, of Alhambra Partners, and Michael Oliver, of Momentum Structural Analysis, who shed light on the Eurodollar markets and FAANG momentum, respectively. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our season finale brings you three world-leading analysts and investors as they share their frameworks and favorite indicators, and help you to become a better investor. Featuring Jesse Felder of the Felder Report, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and Tian Yang of Variant Perception. We also say farewell to Aaron Chan, our co-host, as he departs Real Vision to continue his career in finance. In “Things I Got Wrong”, we speak with Josh Crumb, Co-founder of Goldmoney Inc., who shares the mistake he made diverging from the “long-term greedy” perspective. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Before the hundreds of billions in corporate bailouts and trillions in central bank interventions, there was a time when we believed there was no way our financial models and investment strategies couldn’t be wrong. That was until a hedge fund came along that threatened to bring down the global financial system in 1998. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Julian Brigden, Co-Founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, shares what he got wrong on spotting major trends but jumping on them too soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Look in the mirror and you will find your greatest ally and your mortal enemy. You will find someone who will play tricks on you, appeal to your worst emotions, but who holds the keys to your trading success. This week, we explore the psychology of trading with leading performance psychologist, Brett Steenbarger, and 40-year trading veteran and classical charting legend, Peter Brandt. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Rick Rule, President and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings, shares what he got wrong early in his career when he confused a bull market for brains. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Enter the shadowy world where people use complex strategies and cutting edge technology to hide their identities to defraud multinational companies out of millions of dollars. This week, we speak with Dee Smith, CEO and Principal of Strategic Insight Group, a man whose job is to see through this world of espionage and lies, and who is relied upon by corporations to find out exactly what they’re dealing with. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Peter Brandt, CEO and Founder of Factor Research, shares what he got wrong at the very beginning of his successful 40-year trading career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Meet an 18th-century murderer, banker, convict, laughing stock, and the godfather of central banking, John Law. Accompanied by Dr. Ben Hunt, the Chief Investment Strategist at Salient Partners and author of the Epsilon Theory website, we explore how Law wrote the modern central banking playbook which resulted in a bubble which has reverberated through the actions of future central bankers since. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Michael Schneider, former CIO and co-founder of Brookline Partners and independent PM, discusses what he got wrong assessing the bond market in 2009. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Harry Markopolos was the lone whistleblower on Bernie Maddoff's $18 billion Ponzi scheme and, in this interview, takes the whole regulatory and accounting apparatus to task in a way that will have you thinking differently about institutions that guard the public trust. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Marin Katusa, professional resource investor and founder of Katusa Research, shares what he got wrong going all-in on a mining company early in his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
For years, cyberattacks on a global scale were the stuff of fiction; they have now become reality. And if the NSA isn’t safe then no one is safe. This week, we decode a potential existential threat to modern civilization with Dee Smith, CEO of Strategic Insight Group, and Kowsik Guruswamy, CTO of Menlo Security. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, we speak with Greg Weldon, CEO of Weldon Financial, about what he got wrong shorting the Malaysian Ringgit during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
If you want to predict the path of the global economy, you best have a pulse on the US consumer. At 70% of the US economy, consumer spending is in the economic driver seat. We speak to Stephanie Pomboy, economist and founder of MacroMavens, someone that has consistently got it right in predicting US consumer trends and has the inside track on where the US consumer is headed next. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, we speak with Jerry Haworth, CEO of 36 South Capital Advisors, about what he got wrong shorting the Nasdaq in 1998. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bitcoin is all everyone can talk about and the public is downright hysterical about the price, but the price is not what you need to be focusing on. This week, we explore how Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology have opened up a universe of applications that have the potential to revolutionize entire industries and economies. In 'Things I Got Wrong', we speak with Jesse Felder, publisher of the Felder Report, about what he got wrong while holding a stock in a sector the government wanted dead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Neil Howe isn't only a household name for finance-types, he coined the term "Millennials" and literally wrote the book on generational analysis. This week, he shares his insights on where we stand in his Fourth Turning framework and what it means for markets and society. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Simon Mikhailovich, Founding Partner of Toqueville Bullion Reserve, shares what he got wrong about liquidity and leverage during 2007. (A very special thanks and congratulations to our producer, James, and his Mrs. on the arrival of their baby girl, Hayley!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What if restaurant sales could predict the next recession? According to Paul Westra, Senior Research Analyst at Stifel, decades of restaurant sales data accurately predicted the last two US recessions, and the next one might be the biggest one yet. In 'Things I Got Wrong', and back by popular demand, Chris Cole, CIO of Artemis Capital Management, talks about what he got wrong in adjusting his systematic strategy to a new market regime. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
"The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see", Sir Winston Churchill. Men and women of historical significance understood the importance of history. Tim Price, partner and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, kicks off our extended look at the history of financial crises and scandals, and what they can tell us about the future. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Alex Gurevich, CIO of HonTe Investments, shares what he got wrong about conflating market forecasting with other realms of expertise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The agricultural industry sustains human life but is taken for granted and is subject to volatile cycles. Alan Boyce, former Soros Fund Management Director and Agtech investor, talks us through the biggest challenges facing the industry and major blind-spots few are aware of. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Daniel Want, CIO and co-founder of Prerequisite Capital Management, shares what he got wrong about the end-game in Australian real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Volatility permeates markets, nature, and life. Yet, it is monumentally misunderstood, and often to ruinous consequences. Stephen Diggle, Founder of Vulpes Investment Management, and Chris Cole, Managing Partner at Artemis Capital Management, get at the heart of what individual investors need to know about volatility. 'In Things I Got Wrong', Chris Martenson, Founder of PeakProsperity.com, shares what he got wrong with market structure and communicating emotionally charged ideas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Learn from hedge fund legends as Kyle Bass interviews John Burbank III to reveal insights and ideas that differentiate truly independent market thinkers from amateur speculators. In 'Things I Got Wrong', John Netto, the Protean Trader and Author of The Global Macro Edge, discusses his error in preparing for catalysts and the evaluation framework that sprung from this experience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The financial system will soon witness a collision between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Pensions around the world are being crushed under the weight of trillions in unfunded liabilities while hundreds of millions of Baby Boomers are advancing to retirement in ever greater numbers, creating a perfect storm for the next crisis that is all but mathematically certain to happen. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh), co-host of The Investors Podcast, shares crucial lessons about applying value investing principles in times of crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Carson Block, Founder of Muddy Waters Research, single-handedly dismantles fraudulent companies and his research can cause stocks to plummet 90% in market cap. As one of the world's preeminent short-sellers, Carson shares his incredible story and process for identifying fraudulent targets. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Dr. Steve Keen, professor of economics at Kingston University London, fesses up to misjudging the Australian real estate bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Deconstruct the Trump Reflation Trade as unsightly political realities emerge from the shadows. In 'Things I Got Wrong', David Hay, CIO of Evergreen Gavekal, confesses to underestimating central bank firepower and the usefulness of extreme market sentiment readings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The repercussions of a boom-bust energy cycle and massive infrastructure investment means a supply glut and potentially lower oil prices for much longer than anyone expects. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Michael Lewitt sets aside his ego and trusts in the machines and artificial intelligence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Uncertainty reigns, as political and economic forces build before the historic negotiations which could alter the shape of Great Britain and the EU forever. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Bill Fleckenstein, CEO of Fleckenstein Capital discusses the mistakes he made in underestimating the folly and largesse of Central Bankers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Explore how satellite imagery data is being utilized to drive financial insights, with advice from James Crawford, CEO of Oribital Insights. In ‘The Things I Got Wrong’, Jawad Mian, Founder of Stray Reflections, sits down to share his slip-ups about silver and managing your ego. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Unearth unprecedented investment opportunities in China’s One Belt One Road strategy – something we haven’t seen since the BRICS. Plus, Ben Hunt, Chief Investment Strategist at Salient Partners shares what he got wrong about Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Understand how to leverage financial cycles & forecast future markets with veteran investor Robin Griffiths. Also on this week, Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, tells us his misjudgments’ on gold and being a true contrarian. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Uncover the huge untapped potential in Germany’s real estate market and the interesting cultural and fundamental dynamics driving this opportunity. Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, also shares what he got wrong about volatility and leverage in 2008. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
No investor can afford to ignore geopolitics anymore. Understand why you need a geopolitical analysis framework and how to use it to your advantage. In our ‘Things I Got Wrong’ segment, Louis Gave, Co-founder of Gavekal Research shares his errors about the liberalization of capital in China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Delving into the consequences and opportunities following the cancellation of 86% of India’s currency in circulation. Also, find out what Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and Global Macro Investors, got wrong in times of crisis & learn from his mistakes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices