Gene Peroni's Daily Podcast: Recent Episodes
Gene Peroni
As one of Wall Street’s most respected technical strategists, Gene Peroni, President, Peroni Portfolio Advisors, provides daily stock market commentary in a concise, easily accessible podcast.
PLEASE NOTE: There will be no podcast reports next week while Gene is out of the office.
In today's episode, Gene discusses the recent breakouts in gold and oil stocks, highlighting how both sectors are rebounding from their recent lows and showing renewed strength. Tune in to hear Gene's market insights and what these developments could mean for investors moving forward.
There are times it seems like the stock market is being driven largely by technical factors that are causing these quick swings as traders leap in or out based on near term trend lines. The market has shown it is considerably more substantive than just the near term trading swings based on some technical parameters.. The earnings have been a significant catalyst for the latest advance that has catapulted some of the major indices into record territory...
Gene discusses the recent stock market pullback as major indexes test key short-term support levels following significant breakout moves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P 400 MidCap Index have all advanced into record territory, highlighting the strength of the broader market trend despite near-term volatility. Listen to the rest of the episode for Gene’s analysis and insights on what these developments could mean for investors.
Gene discusses key resistance levels for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq as the major indexes continue pushing to new record highs. Tune in to the full episode for his latest market insights and analysis.
Gene discusses the market's current consolidation phase, highlighting key support and resistance levels for the major market indexes. Listen to the full episode for his insights on navigating today's market environment.
Gene examines the great rotation driving today's market and the volatility that continues to shape the trading landscape. While some sectors take a breather, others are gaining momentum, contributing to what appears to be a constructive base-building phase. Listen to the rest of the episode for Gene's perspective and analysis.
Gene examines the market's response to the Federal Reserve meeting and discusses several developments shaping investor outlook, including the effects of the conflict with Iran. Listen to the rest of the episode for additional insights and analysis from Gene.
Gene explores the market’s ongoing volatility and uncertain outlook while highlighting the sectors and themes continuing to reach new highs. He also identifies areas breaking out of long-term base patterns that could become the next market leaders. Tune in to hear which stocks are showing the strongest potential for sustained uptrends.
Gene discusses the Dow Transports, the S&P 400 MidCap Index, and the Consumer Discretionary sector, highlighting what these key areas may be signaling about current market conditions. Listen to the full podcast for more of Gene's analysis and insights.
Gene shares his bullish outlook on the market, highlighting encouraging bottom-up signals across multiple sectors. Railroads are breaking out to new all-time highs, healthcare continues to strengthen, and metals and materials are demonstrating impressive relative strength. These positive trends suggest growing opportunities beneath the surface of the broader market. Tune in to hear Gene’s full analysis and discover what these developments could mean for investors moving forward.
Investor sentiment appears to be taking a notable turn. In this episode, Gene breaks down the latest AAII Sentiment Survey and explores what the recent shift in sentiment may signal for investors. Listen to the full podcast for Gene's complete analysis.
The market continues to show a split personality, with technology stocks under pressure while other sectors gain momentum. Gene highlights strength in financials, healthcare, railroads, trucking, and consumer stocks, and explains what this shifting leadership could mean for investors. Listen to the full episode for Gene’s latest market insights and analysis.
Gene discusses how ongoing uncertainty continues to drive market volatility and fierce sector rotation, with no clear end in sight in the near term. Despite the significant trading swings and shifting market leadership, investor sentiment has remained more resilient than expected. In fact, bullish sentiment rose sharply from 36.3% to 44.9%, highlighting a growing sense of optimism among investors. Listen to the full episode for Gene’s insights on what these sentiment shifts could mean for the market moving forward.
Gene discusses the continued selling pressure impacting semiconductor stocks, as several marquee names in the sector have broken below widely watched short-term trend lines, triggering significant selling activity in the market. What does this recent weakness mean for investors, and could it signal broader shifts in market leadership? Listen to the full episode for Gene’s insights and outlook on the semiconductor sector and the market ahead.
Gene discusses the market’s ability to anticipate shifts in the economy and why investors should pay close attention to long-term trends. Despite heightened volatility and significant sector rotation, the broader market continues to provide valuable signals about the economic outlook. Tune in as Gene shares his perspective on navigating today’s rapidly changing environment and positioning for the opportunities ahead.
Gene shares his perspective on the ongoing tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and explores what the potential implications could mean for investors and the broader market environment. Tune in to hear his insights on navigating uncertainty and understanding the factors that may influence investment decisions in the months ahead.
Gene discusses several market themes that continue to show strength, including artificial intelligence, transportation, and manufacturing. He highlights how participation is broadening across multiple sectors and themes, a positive sign for overall market leadership and momentum.
Tune in to the full episode for Gene’s insights on the evolving market landscape and the opportunities emerging across a wide range of sectors.
Gene discusses the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, which shows that bullish and bearish investors are now evenly divided despite the heightened market volatility experienced in recent weeks. He explores what this balanced sentiment may signal for investors and how current market conditions continue to shape opportunities across various sectors.
Gene discusses a historic milestone in the market as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 53,000 for the first time ever. He examines what this achievement says about current market conditions, investor sentiment, and the broader trend driving equities higher. Gene also shares his perspective on what this milestone may mean for stocks moving forward and where opportunities could be emerging.
Gene discusses how heightened volatility and rapid sector rotation have challenged investors this year. However, in his view, this environment has also helped crystallize compelling opportunities that continue to develop across the market. While technology remains a leadership group, Gene highlights financials as another sector demonstrating notable relative strength and improving market participation.
Tune in to hear Gene’s perspective on these evolving market dynamics and where he sees potential opportunities emerging in the months ahead.
Gene highlights several sectors and market themes that have lagged for the past few years but are now beginning to show meaningful improvement in relative strength. Areas such as consumer staples, non-durables, railroads, and trucking are emerging from extended base formations and showing signs of renewed leadership. As market participation broadens, these groups may offer valuable insight into the next phase of the market cycle.
Tune in to hear Gene’s analysis of these developing trends and what they could mean for investors going forward.
In today’s episode, Gene explores the growing strength across several healthcare sub-sectors, including pharmaceuticals, life sciences, medical equipment, and healthcare services. With these areas showing meaningful improvement, healthcare may be positioning itself to re-emerge as a market leader in the months ahead. Tune in for Gene’s insights on what this trend could mean for investors.
Gene looks ahead to the second half of 2026, highlighting the continued momentum across several major indexes and what it could signal for markets moving forward. As trends begin to take shape, he shares key insights to help investors stay informed and positioned.
Gene highlights that, with just two trading days left in the first half of 2026, markets appear to be holding steady despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran peace talks. Attention may be shifting toward the second quarter earnings, where early signals from sector and thematic performance suggest a potentially strong showing.
Gene analyzes key support levels driving the major indices, with particular focus on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Don't miss this timely market insight.
Gene breaks down the Magnificent Seven and their impact on today’s market trends. Don’t miss the full episode for timely insights and market direction.
Gene reviews yesterday’s market action, grading it a “C” for constructive as he highlights ongoing strength in certain sectors and elevated market volatility driving the current environment.
Gene discusses the current mixed market, sector divergence in areas like technology, and why he believes a rotational trend may be emerging. Listen to the full episode for more.
Gene covers a range of sectors and themes, from agriculture and industrial metals to industrials, consumer discretionary, and financials. Tune in to the full episode for additional insights, and be sure to leave a review.
Ahead of key Federal Reserve rate announcements, markets often experience a sell-off. Gene breaks down this pattern and explains why he expects a potential rebound, with stock futures signaling a stronger open. Tune in for more perspective.
Major indexes have crossed key resistance thresholds—but the market remains volatile and reactive. Gene examines how geopolitical forces are fueling ongoing uncertainty. Listen to the full episode for expert perspective.
Gene breaks down yesterday’s market news as major indexes pushed above critical resistance levels—highlighted by record highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P MidCap 400 Index. Tune in for deeper insight into how this move is shaping sector performance and key market themes.
Gene describes the current market as a “paint-by-the-numbers” environment—where key indicators continue to point to a strong, bullish foundation. With a focus on top-down data, he outlines what’s driving this outlook and what it could mean ahead. Tune in for the full conversation and deeper insights.
Gene breaks down yesterday’s strong market rally, driven by renewed optimism around a potential U.S.–Iran peace agreement. He highlights how the move may reflect underlying buying strength and could signal a potential floor for major indexes—though confirmation is still needed in the days ahead.
Listen to the full podcast for deeper market insights and what to watch next.
Gene breaks down this morning’s stock futures, which point to a higher open following yesterday’s pullback. While markets may be rebounding, he anticipates continued volatility with wide and reactive trading swings. Tune in for his full analysis and what it could mean for investors.
Gene breaks down escalating tensions with Iran and the resulting uncertainty on Wall Street, as reflected in this morning’s stock futures. Tune in for the full episode to hear his insights.
Gene examines the recent market correction and yesterday’s pullback, highlighting what investors should be watching next. Don’t miss the full episode for deeper insights.
Gene reviews the market sell-off from last Friday, with technology—particularly semiconductor stocks—leading the decline after significant gains in recent weeks. Listen to the full episode for additional insights and analysis.
Healthcare could be regaining its leadership stature more quickly than I had earlier anticipated, I think there are a couple of technical factors at play here. For one we have been seeing rotation in this market it began in October of last year. That rotation has continued and more recently Healthcare seems to of come into that rotation field..
Gene offers his latest perspective on Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ futures, highlighting key market movements to watch.
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Gene takes a closer look at the stock market’s resilience, discussing the themes of elasticity and durability that have shaped recent years. Listen to the full episode to gain additional insights.
Gene reviews the strong momentum across all three major indexes following record highs and shares key takeaways—listen for more insights.
Gene discusses semiconductor stocks and highlights key trends across the technology sector—tune in to hear his latest market insights.
Gene highlights how this past Tuesday marked the unofficial start of the summer session on Wall Street, with a strong kickoff to the summer rally. Major indexes are trading at or near all-time highs as of yesterday’s close. Tune in to the full episode for additional insights.
Gene explores a stock market environment unlike anything he has seen in recent years, highlighting the broad participation across multiple sectors and themes following the market pivot last October.
Gene explores the string of record highs across major market indexes and why a pullback may be on the horizon, highlighting the risk of a shift that could shake investor complacency.
Gene dives into the market’s durability and flexibility, noting the ongoing trend of earnings outperforming Wall Street expectations.
I'm always intrigued by the market when its running contrary to economists forecasts. It wasn't long ago that there was chatter about the possibility of economy going into recession, that chatter has diminished more recently. When we look at the market seeing how the cyclicals are behaving, that is encouraging, and would tend to run counter to the expectations of a recession...
Gene examines current market themes and sector dynamics, highlighting opportunities within health care. Listen to the full podcast for deeper insight.
Gene breaks down the technical underpinnings of the current market, explaining why its rotational structure remains constructive and continues to unwind excesses in individual stocks and major indexes—offering valuable insight into today’s evolving market dynamics.
Gene explores the latest market rotation and why it’s not a game-changing shift. He explains how market leadership continues to be driven by the same sectors and themes that have been in place since last October. Listen to the full podcast for more insight.
Gene explores how the stock market’s recent record performance is being overshadowed by headline fatigue, as investors grow increasingly cautious amid the on-and-off geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Gene breaks down signals from the CBOE Volatility Index, which appears to be forming a base—an indication that near-term volatility and faster market swings could be on the horizon.
Gene discusses how the CBOE Volatility Index may be in a basing pattern, setting the stage for a move into the low 20s and a possible rise in market volatility. Tune in to the full podcast for his complete analysis.
Gene revisits a case he’s made many times before—that last October marked a critical pivot point for the market. Beyond the major indexes bottoming and beginning a longer-term recovery, he highlights the more important shift beneath the surface: renewed strength across areas that had been out of favor for years, including natural resources, infrastructure, transportation, and other cyclical themes. Listen to the rest of the podcast for more insights.
Gene delivers daily market insights and analysis—tune in for his perspective on today’s market action.
Gene discusses how the market is beginning to show a more constructive, positive pattern, with a growing number of sectors and themes regaining technical momentum since the March pivot bottom.
Gene asks the timely question, “Is this a ‘Sell in May and go away’ year?” He breaks down the cyclical factors that tend to influence markets between November and May. Tune in to the full episode for deeper insight and context.
Gene breaks down the March 31 pivot bottom, highlighting the strong rotational action that’s recently unfolded. That shift has fueled a renewed appetite for growth—especially across technology and semiconductor stocks. It’s an encouraging sign to see the market realigning toward growth leadership. Tune in for deeper insights and what this shift could mean going forward.
Gene examines how, just weeks after the market bottomed on March 31, major stock indexes—excluding the Dow Jones Industrial Average—have climbed to record‑high levels. The rebound was swift and surprising. Listen to the full episode for deeper insight into what’s driving this rapid recovery.
Gene explores the idea that the stock market may be wrong this time—yet if it is, it could stand as a rare exception to the market’s uncanny ability to anticipate future economic outcomes. Time and again, market signals have defied naysayers and economist forecasts alike. Tune in to the full episode for deeper insights into what the market may be telling us now.
Gene examines the day‑to‑day shifts in expectations around potential peace with Iran and the market’s measured response. Rather than signaling stress, the uncertainty appears to be driving constructive sector and thematic rotation. Tune in for deeper insight.
As technology continues to recover, growth is back in the spotlight. Gene explores how investors are taking on more risk in search of greater rewards—and how this shift is influencing key market categories. Biotechnology is one area showing signs of leadership, with ripple effects across the healthcare sector. Listen in for a deeper look at these developing trends.
In today’s podcast, Gene explores how the market has shifted since last October, focusing on evolving sector leadership and thematic participation.
Gene discusses how the Dow Jones Transportation Average has surged to an all‑time high, signaling that other major indexes may soon follow. Tune in for more market insight.
Gene discusses a noticeable shift in the market’s tone. Signs of underlying buying strength have begun to emerge, prompting him to raise support targets for the major indexes last week. Tune in for deeper insights and what this could mean going forward.
Gene talks about the significant market pullback over the past couple of years and the growing recession concerns being discussed by analysts. He shares his perspective on what it means for investors. Listen to the full podcast for more insight.
Gene breaks down yesterday’s impressive market rally, highlighting the strong point and percentage gains posted across the major indexes. He details the advances in the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and S&P 400 Midcap, and explains why the move stood out. Tune in for the full discussion.
Gene discusses a sharp move higher in stock futures after reports of a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Listen to the full podcast for more insight.
Gene shares his outlook on the markets, noting that major indexes may be forming a bottom, including the S&P 400 Midcap Index. Listen to the full episode for deeper insights and his perspective on what this could mean for investors.
In today’s Podcast, Gene breaks down current market conditions and discusses how investors can navigate ongoing volatility. He shares perspective on recent economic data on the major market indexes and what these trends could mean for portfolios moving forward.
Gene breaks down the final trading day of March and shares insights on the continued volatility shaping today’s market environment. Tune in to hear Gene’s full perspective and market takeaways in the complete episode.
Wishing everyone a happy Easter and Passover.
Gene breaks down yesterday’s action with serious momentum—highlighting how the CBOE Volatility Index came within a hair of hitting the 32 mark. That near‑touch is a big deal, setting the stage for what could be an explosive breakout toward the 35 level. Buckle up!
Gene provides an in‑depth examination of the recent market downturn, noting that the accelerated decline has pushed major stock indexes into correction territory—commonly defined as a decrease of 10% or more. Listen to the full episode for a comprehensive analysis of these developments.
Gene provides an in‑depth analysis of the persistent selling pressure within the technology sector and examines how this ongoing weakness may increasingly exert a negative influence on the broader market. We invite you to listen to the full episode for comprehensive insights and additional commentary.
Gene explains that despite this week’s rally, the major market indexes still haven’t broken through key levels, indicating that they remain in a clear downtrend. Listen to today's podcast to learn more.
Gene discusses how March has historically acted as a pivot point for the markets, though this year’s direction remains uncertain. The major stock indexes continue to trend decisively lower. Tune in to the full podcast for Gene’s insights and analysis.
Gene provides an in‑depth analysis of how yesterday’s developments involving Iran and the United States contributed to a notable rally in the financial markets. Despite the upward movement, the trading day was marked by significant fluctuations in investor sentiment, a pattern clearly reflected in the shifts observed in the CBOE Volatility Index.
Listen to the full episode for a detailed examination of these dynamics and their potential implications.
Gene discusses the sharp reversals in stock futures ahead of this morning’s open, driven by reports of productive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Tune in for his take on what this means for today’s market tone.
Gene breaks down yesterday’s market decline, which accelerated after the Fed announced it would keep interest rates unchanged. Tune in for his full analysis and what it means for investors moving forward. Continue listening to the podcast for the complete market rundown.
Gene discusses how the Iran war has triggered a market pullback that, in his view, reflects a healthy consolidation rather than meaningful damage. He also highlights several key technical factors he’s watching closely.
Gene reviews yesterday’s market session, highlighting performance across the major indexes. He notes encouraging support levels in several key areas, particularly within cyclical sectors and technology stocks.
Gene maintains that today’s landscape reflects an expanded market environment rather than a contracting one. Listen to today’s Peroni Podcast to hear Gene’s full market breakdown and insights.
The next report will be Monday, March 16th. The latest American Association of Independent Investors, sentiment survey shows that bear sentiment climbed considerably, to the 48th level. That is significant because the bear sentiment noted by AAII had been tracking in the mid 30's for a number of weeks. That would tend to reinforce what we saw with the CBOE Volatility Index, when it climbed above the 35 level. This is all I believe is a precursor to a market bottom, getting greater fear in the market...
CBOE volatility index has pulled back considerably from its recent highs; this would seem to be an indication that the recent higher stages of fear if not even mild panic have ebbed considerably.. Volatility is still on the table but I would put more emphasis on underlying market, looking at the market more from a bottom up perspective. There I think we see quite a constructive profile that is more stocks, more sectors, more themes really repairing here nicely; and a market that generally is expanding not contracting...
Yesterdays market action may have indicated that at least for now the worst fears may have played out with respect to the Iran conflict, and other geopolitical factors, as well as economic and monetary concerns. I think what we saw yesterday was an indication of seller exhaustion, and that prompted a nice reversal among the major market indices, they held very closely to their support levels..
The hesitation we have seen in the stock market following the record setting feats in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500 back in January; may have been attributable to the uncertainty as to when the invasion of Iran would take place.. If I were to dismiss geopolitical events that have triggered this pull back, I would make the argument that a pull back in the market was overdue.. Even with all the volatility and the reaction to the Iran war; the major indices are still holding above what I would call again relatively a normal and pretty aggressive support levels, for the major indices..
Gene discusses how major stock indexes have remained relatively steady despite elevated volatility this week stemming from uncertainties surrounding the Iran war. Listen to the full episode for his complete market insights.
Gene breaks down this week’s market decline, noting that while the pullback has been driven by event‑related headlines, the underlying technicals suggest it resembles a normal correction that was likely overdue.
Listen to the full episode to hear Gene’s complete analysis.
Gene highlights market action, noting notable reversals across major banks and other financial stocks. After facing sizeable intraday losses, many of these names managed to recover and finish the session in positive territory.
Don’t miss the rest of the insights in today’s episode!
Gene provides a technical review of yesterday’s session, noting the market’s rebound off the intraday lows and highlighting the underlying support levels for some of the major market indexes.
Gene notes that the major indexes—particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500—may be positioned for a potential pullback of roughly 7% to 10%. Be sure to listen to today’s episode for Gene’s full market analysis and insights.
Gene breaks down this year’s choppy market environment, where volatility has been elevated but meaningful momentum remains elusive. Listen now to hear what could shift sentiment and influence the next market move.
Gene notes that after setting record highs earlier this year, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have stalled within a range. Despite the pause, both indices continue to hold firm uptrends.
The market is undergoing a meaningful shift as leadership rotates from digital‑focused sectors toward more traditional, analog areas of the economy. Investors are increasingly gravitating toward agriculture, railroads, metals, materials, and other foundational industries that support the nation’s core economic infrastructure.
Gene highlights the market’s ability to preserve its longer‑term uptrend, even as the technology sector works through a healthy and rigorous consolidation phase.
Gene breaks down the volatile start to 2026 and explains how the major indexes are signaling trends likely to persist throughout the year—most notably the continued relative strength of both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
Stock market leadership has been shifting since late October of last year. Gene provides an analysis of the major market indexes’ performance to substantiate his perspective.
In Gene’s view, we are far enough into 2026 to validate several of the market patterns that have been forming this year. He is referring to the market’s bottom‑up characteristics, focusing on the underlying trends across the major market indexes.
Gene highlights last Friday’s powerful, record-setting session, emphasizing that the Dow’s surge past the 50,000 mark reinforces the market’s strong momentum—even if it doesn’t yet signal a major technical shift in his view.
Gene highlights that futures are trending higher this morning across the Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500.
Gene highlights the sectors and themes most likely to drive the market higher, noting that sector and thematic leadership will be central to this year’s narrative.
Gene highlights gains across major market indexes and examines the strength of technology and AI themes in the market.
Gene highlights early fourth‑quarter results showing a clear tilt toward growth across the major market indexes.
Gene discusses performances among the magnificent seven--and other top-tier technology stocks.
Gene discusses Technology, Healthcare, Energy and Manufacturing categories of the market.
Gene reviews yesterday’s market close, highlighting that all major stock indexes finished in the red.
Gene discusses the significance of the first ten trading days of January, noting that their performance often sets the tone for the remainder of the year. Current trends suggest that Small- and Mid-Cap stocks may outperform.
It is my prediction that 2026 will be the year of the also-rans. The picture is changing even if we look at the market in a top down perspective. In the opening days of 2026 we've seen some interesting characteristics...
Gene reports about higher volatility over the short run based in part on the CBOE Volatility Index.
I recently presented my observation that investor focus may be shifting from digital to analog. I think that is becoming more evident in recent sessions including a day like yesterday. Where we saw a pretty strong rally among the major market indices; but technology which got off to a pretty good start in the morning quickly fizzled and reversed course. So I think the appetite for technology, for AI might be easing here a bit. I don't think it is dwindling or moving into the sunset by any means, but I don't think it is going to be a forefront leadership category as it has been for a number of years...
Reviewing the the support parameters and resistance levels near term, for the major indices including the S&P 400 Mid Cap index..
As we close in on the final trading days of 2025, the outlook for 2026 looks quite good; at least from my technical perspective. Looking at a number of individual stocks that are trending to short term highs or fifty-two week highs, or even moving beyond those levels. There is a pretty good swath of sectors and themes represented by these individual stocks, the depth of individual stocks representing these themes and sectors is growing not diminishing...
The trepidation in the market reflected in part by the volatility that we have experienced since the end of October. I think reflects in part concerns about next year and the second year of a presidency, the mid-term election cycle. Historically the market has not performed in the second year of a presidency, but that is not a hard and fast rule, there can be a number of variables that can certainly alter the outcome of the second year of a presidency. Perhaps more importantly the concern is about the economy and how it will fare next year..
Stock futures indicated higher ahead of this mornings opening, and this is a rally that could stick. This could be the start of the much anticipated Santa Claus rally; or the rally I had mentioned I thought could get underway in the last weeks of December.
Gene discusses the major market indexes possibly moving to an all time high for the end of the year.
Gene discusses how investor's are awaiting the Fed's decision regarding interest rates.
Gene discusses how technology and other high-growth market sectors appear to be reclaiming leadership and momentum in the market.
Gene discusses how the major market indexes are setting up for a strong year-end rally.
The major stock indexes appear to be on good technical footing on the final trading day of November.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is emerging as a star performer as we close in on 2025, of course there are a number of weeks left before the end of this year. But we can see here especially in November that there has been quite a bit of portfolio shuffling readjustments, in part perhaps because of external factors, whether its been the government shutdown, tariffs, the fed, earnings, all these things in the mix. But more over I think it is a market that is seeking some of the underperforming areas this year, and giving a little more focus and attention to those areas rather than the big momentum players.
November has ushered in a different brand of volatility, not of the detrimental sort but as I see it more of the constructive variety. The rotational movements we have been seeing have been generally constructive an overall the movements have bolstered support near or at the levels I have been mentioning since October 28th. An these are fairly aggressive support areas, so the markets retreat here has been generally shallow, so much of the consolidation has been accomplished through rotational movements, an I see that as a good thing.
Yesterdays broad based rally among the major market indices was encouraging from the stand point that it seemed to bolster the support levels that I previously mentioned, an those are aggressive support areas. So these are levels not designed by the popular moving averages but by what I see, from my technical viewpoint, looking more at what some of the more short term trend lines are representing...
A couple of points about last week for one thing the COBE volatility index did rally up into the low twenties, that was a minimum objective so that was a box checked. And the other item is that the major indices pulled back to their support levels. In some cases there was a temporary breach of those support levels on an intraday basis, but by the end of trading on Friday they had reclaimed their support levels...
Wall Street chatter seems to be increasingly focused on the possibility of a technology bubble, I do not see it that way I think technology is in a general correction and intermediate consolidation and one that might be arguably overdue....
Gene discusses how several themes and sectors remained resilient during yesterday's decline.
It is a digital world and this is not lost on the stock market. Some weeks ago I made the case that some of Wall Streets old adages the analog adages at that really don't hold water as they once did. One in particular is the Dow theory, which generally states that the Dow Jones transportation average should lead the Dow Jones industrials...
Gene discusses support levels for the following major market indexes:
The DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ.
Gene discusses expansive trading swings in the market that typically occur at the end or start of a new quarter.
Gene discusses the final trading day of the third quarter and the market's typical behavior in September.
Gene discusses the last trading days of September and mentions that there may be some irregular trading well into October.
Gene discusses how the CBOE Volatility index appears to be making a significant base formation and is currently trading above the 16th range.
Consumer digressionary continues to be a mixed bag. That is there are some stocks in some sub-categories within consumer digressionary that look more attractive than others but not a real clear picture of strength across the board. I think its a little bit more of a stock picking focused sector right now, and it'll probably stay that way over the short run...
Gene notes that the major market indexes are poised to reach new highs today, driven by stock futures openings.
Gene discusses the possibility of a Fed rate cut, a view that appears to be Wall Street's consensus.
Gene mentions the 24 year anniversary of September 11, the passing of Charlie Kirk and trends in the market.
Gene discusses how the major stock averages are within striking distance of their all time record highs.
Gene discusses the end to a productive summer session in the market. Record highs were reached across the major indexes.
Gene reviews the final trading sessions of August and highlights September's historical reputation as one of the weakest months for equities.
Gene explains his "Rule of 19", which looks at whether the Volatility Index is well below the 19 level, a signal that the market could be poised for increased volatility.
Stock futures indicate that the NASDAQ could launch into record territory at the opening this morning.
Gene discusses the dramatic shift in investor's psychology since the April 7 bottom.
*No report for tomorrow
Ongoing geopolitical and social headlines are weighing heavily on investor sentiment, pushing bearish outlooks to levels significantly above historical norms.
*No report tomorrow
The virtues of a "time in" not a "timing" investment strategy, it is important to observe, identify, and adhere to basic technical trends in the market. When there are broad scale violations of these trends in a sector, a theme or the overall market it can foretell significant problems ahead for the market.
Observing a chart extending back 18 months the S&P 500 has rejoined it basic up trend and that's remarkable given all the challenges the market has faced since early this year. It has come back in a very orderly, decisive and durable manner.
It is important to gage the market based on how it reacts to good news rather than bad news. The initial indications are good that the market seems to be responding fair ably to good news, which means that the market has yet to discount the good news on the horizon.
Surely there are a number of sophisticated formulas, an osculators that can be observed in trying to decern what the near term outlook in the market might be. A very simple or maybe simplistic way to go about it is to observe the CBOE Volatility Index, it has been pretty good at least in terms of offering what the current status of the market might be.
Gene discusses the kickoff of the second half of the 2025 market and what it could signal for investors.
Gene clarifies a comment made on yesterday's report regarding the major indexes.
*No report tomorrow 07/02
The stock market seems to be picking up on optimistic signals, with a bullish outlook starting to take shape.
Gene discusses the recent U.S. strike on Iran and its ripple effects on the market, particularly the surge in aerospace and defense stocks as geopolitical tensions escalate.
Gene highlights that agriculture is a sector investors shouldn't overlook, as it's recently been showing strong technical strength in the market.
Gene discusses the technical similarities between the current advance since the April 7th bottom and the patterns observed in past recoveries following significant market declines.
Gene discusses our current position within the ongoing bull market, highlighting how it continues to advance despite lingering pessimism and widespread skepticism among investors.
*No report tomorrow 6/13
Gene discusses the importance of having an allocation in the small and mid-cap categories, specially for growth focused investors.
*No report tomorrow 6/11/2025
Gene reviews two decades of market performance and offers insights into potential future trends.
Gene discusses the public squabble between President Trump and Elon Musk and how it triggered selling in the market, specially in technology.
Gene discusses how the stock market continues to rise despite the challenges on a number of fronts such as tariffs, geo-political risk, The FED and inflation to name a few.
In this episode, Gene discusses recent market behavior, focusing on trading swings within a narrow range and what they suggest about current market conditions.
*No report tomorrow
The chart patterns across the major market indexes collectively indicate a bullish outlook for the market.
Gene provides insights on the market's technical recoveries and the potential for a summer rally.
Yesterday's rally saw the major market indexes clearing above their respected short term resistance levels.
*No report tomorrow 5/14/2025
Gene discusses the trade talks between the U.S. and China and it's influence on the market.
The stock market may be transitioning to a more normalized behavior as volatility is easing.
Gene discusses how the stock market has adopted a more resilient behavior since the April 7 lows.
Gene discusses yesterday's market decline and how it drove the major indexes below their respective support guidelines.
Gene discusses stock futures pointing to a lower opening, including declines in both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500.
Tariffs continue to trigger volatility on Wall Street and we are seeing that this morning with stock futures indicating a lower opening.
Gene discusses how the major market indexes have engaged in V type rebounds following the deep lows from last Monday April 07.
The aggressive implementation of tariffs by the Trump Administration spurred historic volatility in the financial markets. But in recent sessions the market rebounded as some of these tariffs were eased.
The reality of tariffs and their short term consequences are striking the market hard this morning.
Gene discusses the probability of the market engaging in a saucer type bottom formation.
*No podcast tomorrow 4/2/2025
Rotation has surely been a key technical characteristic during the month of March and that could carry over into April. But I wouldn't expect it to continue at the aggressive and or accelerated rate that we saw during this month.
Gene talks about the first quarter coming to an end and how the DOW Jones Industrial Average is the clear winner year-to-date. Listen more...
Yesterday's rally may have been a snapshot of things to come as the market recovers longer term.
*No report tomorrow 3/26/25
Gene discusses using percentages to label the market in corrections or in a Bear market.
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey, indicates a small change in sentiment. There is some movement from the neutral camp to the bullish camp.
The Stock Market suspense of trading swings continue and are likely to prevail through much of this year based on the CBOE Volatility Index long term trend.
*No report tomorrow 3/20/25. Report resumes on Friday 3/21.
Since late last week, the stock market's tone has shifted to a more resilient behavior.
Typically it is not a sign of a healthy market when it it is highly reactive to day to day events whether those events are schedule economic reports or comments from the fed or the like. But this is the market condition we are currently facing, one that continues to react quite significantly to these day to day events.
Despite yesterday's high volatility, the CBOE volatility index did not move above the 30 level.
The stock market is oversold but it could stay over sold for an extended period of time.
*No report tomorrow, March 05, 2025
Gene discusses how the market is weighed down by the impact of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding DOGE, which could affect earnings across multiple sectors in the future...
A number of stocks have now pulled back to their base support levels, improving prospects for at least a trading rally.
Gene discusses how the market is approaching key breakaway thresholds for major indexes, which could lead to substantial upside potential.
Gene discusses the major market indexes parameters for the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Gene discusses the stubborn resistance created by a series of rally failures among the major market indexes.
Gene examines the two major event-driven declines: The DeepSeek downturn on January 27th and the tariff-related drop on February 3rd. Despite these events, the market has held its ground.
Gene discusses the continued effects of the tariffs on the market. The market stabilized after President Trump suspended the tariffs for Mexico for 30 days.
Gene discusses the new tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico and China and how they will affect the market.
Gene reflects on January's performance in the stock market and its potential to set the tone for a great year ahead.
Gene discusses the initial wave of technology earnings that are starting to come in, sparking mixed reactions.
Gene discusses yesterday's broad-base rally as a quality one from a technical perspective.
Gene talks about the market's agriculture indexes and how they are making a strong recovery.
Traditional stocks, sectors and themes are re-emerging as market leaders but not at the expense of the new age companies. The companies that stand to benefit from President Trump's Golden Age of America.
Gene discusses former federal reserve chairman Ben Bernake taking a very important step in instituting a policy of transparency with respect to monetary strategy and how it has been positive in the market over the year.
The major stock averages may be catching support above their recent lows. Gene outlines estimated support areas for the major indexes.
Last Friday's decline, The NASDAQ fell below it's widely watched short-term support level.
Since mid-December the S&P 500 has been zagging on either side of its fifty-day moving average that is a widely watched support level, and currently it stands around 5,940.
The Stock Market hit the proverbial brick wall yesterday, after rallying from last Thursday's lows.
Also, our thoughts and prayers are those who have been severely impacted by the devastating fires in the Los Angeles area.
Since late November, portfolio managers have been aggressively shuffling and rebalancing portfolios presumably in anticipation of Trump policies that may be enacted after President Trump takes office on January 20th.
Last Friday's session exhibited the kind of elasticity that has characterized this market time and again over the years.
The NASDAQ and S&P 500 breached their pivot lows from December 20th in yesterday's session.
Stock futures are indicated higher this morning. This was expected after the December sell-off.
The year is finishing on a downbeat note for stocks and this could present a challenging start for 2025, only the NASDQ is holding above its widely watched short term moving average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have breached decisively their respective fifty day average levels...
Gene discusses the the aftermath of the August 5th decline, which correlates to what we are seeing now with the DOW 1,000 point plus drop.
A week can make a big difference. Last Wednesday we saw a big selling rout with the DOW falling more than a 1,000 points.
Near term investors or near term traders trying to pinpoint where a pullback might occur could prove to be a difficult or fruitless task.
The stock market may be overdue for a sizeable retreat. Through much of this year the stock market has defied Wall Street adages, seasonal and cyclical trends.
2024 has been a year of first time evers on Wall Street, first time ever that the NASDAQ crossed above 20,000, first time ever that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit the 45,000 level, and the first time ever that the S & P 500 has crossed significantly above the 6,000 level.
The Trump Bump continues on Wall Street with the major market indexes driving further into uncharted territory.
The Magnificent Seven theme is making a technical comeback on Wall Street but not at the expense of other sectors and themes. A number of the growth stocks representing technology, industrial and consumer discretionary are also posting very nice relative strength trends as well.
Gene has some updated parameters for the major indexes that continue to present an attractive risk/reward ratio.
Technology is coming back after consolidating over the last several weeks and more. The FANG stocks and magnificent 7 are showing improving technical form.
The final month of trading in 2024 is here. Gene observes and comments on the price architecture of many of the leading stocks in numerous leadership categories: technology, industrials and metals/materials
From peak to valley, the Dow Jones Industrial average fell a little bit more than 3% earlier this month.
Earlier this month I had predicted that the market would be a bit more reactive to day-to-day events, to news events and so on and that has generally proven to be the case.
Portfolio shuffling continues at a pretty swift pace in anticipation of the policies that are expected to be enacted by the Trump administration when President Trump takes office on January 20th.
It is not unusual to see the BMF momentum leaders garnering all the attention and certainly being the market focus but there are times..
Technical indications continue to argue for further volatility over the short run possibly leading into Thanksgiving and beyond.
In recent sessions, a number of the high profile growth stocks failing to make higher highs, this could act as a triggering mechanism for some selling over the near term.
The Dow Jones Industrial average and the S&P 500, pulling back from their recently conquered millennium levels; 44,000 and 6,000.
Since election day, the trends that had been in place in the stock market have been generally enhanced not altered meaningfully. Two examples of that are the Financials and Aerospace and Defense.
Month's ago Gene predicted that this "Bull market" would become a G.O.A.T. Spoiler alert....
Some are dubbing yesterday's big rally on Wall Street as the "Trump Bump". Gene discusses trends that had been developing over time.
Donald Trump wins the presidential election and the stock market is responding this morning.
The stock market is likely to find some relief with the uncertainty surrounding the presidential race outcome no longer looming.
The S & P 400 Mid Cap Index is within 3 basis points of the performance of the
S & P 500 quarter to date that is as of last Fridays closing.
October did finish with somewhat of a down and dirty retreat especially as it pertained to the more aggressive growth areas of the market specifically technology.
Gene gives thanks to everyone that reached out congratulating him on his 50 years in the business. He also comments on the market's rotational behavior as the month of October is coming to an end.
Today marks Gene's 50th year anniversary in this business specifically in the areas of Technical Analysis and portfolio management. Gene discusses market trends through out the years.
With just 8 days remaining, the stock market does not appear to be toiling over the election outcome.
The major market indexes have been moderately rolling into consolidation over the last several weeks. This trend could likely continue into November.
The latest American Association of Individual Investors survey shows that Bullish consensus has fallen from last week's level at 45.5% to this week reading of 37.7%.
Inflation has re-emerged on Wallstreet and interest rates have been ticking higher in recent sessions. Some investors have concerns that perhaps the Fed had acted prematurely in lowering interest rates recently.
The stock market does not seem to be reflecting hesitation or trepidation ahead of the elections just two weeks away.
With the Dow S&P 500 and S&P 400 Mid Cap Index at or near their respective highs, some investors may be suffering from a case of acrophobia.
Gene talks more about the bullish characteristics in this market that have been responsible for its durability and elasticity.
The Dow Jones Industrial average setting another new record high. Finishing above 42,800.
Some big banks are reporting this morning and others next week. The bank earnings that have come in this morning have been received positively by investors.
Yesterday's decline was not unique to the month of October or for that matter the period between August and October which historically presents technical headwinds for the market.
Gene comments about the bullish underlining technical foundation of this market, particularly going into the month October.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East, put heightened focus on Aerospace and defense stocks yesterday. Aerospace and defense is a subcategory of the Industrials; one of the stronger performing sectors in the S&P 500.
The stock market has navigated impressively through the first 2 months of this 3 month period of August- October, that historically has presented some technical, cyclical and seasonal challenges for the stock market.
The historically worst month of the year is proven to be one of the better month's of 2024. The major market indexes are gaining ground.
With the Dow and S&P 500 at all time record highs, some may feel that the best tact is to just wait it out, hope for some kind of a pull back.
In less than seven weeks time market psychology has shifted from a stage of panic to a hint of euphoria and we saw that little bit of euphoria playing out in yesterdays session.
Yesterday's market gyration's are seen as relatively normal in the context of the volatility that has seen since August.
Wallstreet and Mainstreet anticipates a Fed's interest rate decision and that announcement coming in this afternoon. Focus and attention regarding the Fed's anticipated rate cut.
In less than a weeks time , The Dow Jones Industrial average has recovered from a 700 point deficit.
As of Fridays closing major market indices are above their respective short term moving average trend lines.
There were subtle hints early on in yesterday's session that the steep decline might not be sustained. Technology stocks held up relatively well amid the 700 point decline in the DOW.
Today marks the 23rd anniversary of September 11. May we never forget those who lost their lives.
The major market indexes have managed to rally back close to the support levels mentioned yesterday but they failed to reclaim those levels decisively. The ONUS remains on the Bulls.
As of closing yesterday, the major market indexes are within close proximity of the support levels that Gene outlined recently.
Mixed session with the Dow being higher and the other indexes being lower. There were indications that the downward momentum might breaking.
Rough start for a month that historically represents the most difficult season for the stock market.
Today is the final trading day of August and it also marks the unofficial end of the summer session on Wall Street.
In observing a number of Individual stocks representing technology, artificial intelligence and other of the more aggressive growth areas of the market, it seems that they have run into a bit of a technical brick wall.
The greatest obstacle for investors over the very near term, may be the calendar. This is the last full week of the August. Next week begins what is historically the worst month of the year for the stock market.
As the major market indexes approach their July peaks, levels that represent their all time record highs....
The stock market is in the throws of a seasonal and cyclical period that runs between August and October.
It is now been 2 weeks since the stock market fell sharp and the CBOE Volatility Index reached panic stage levels...
Shortly after the August 5th selling rout, I had mentioned that it’s important to consider the cup-and-handle formations that had developed in stocks, sectors and themes shortly after the lows were struck last October.
Staying the course with the longer-term market leaders through short-term volatility has often proven to be the best strategy. The latest of this is the trading action following the August 5 decline.
From 65 to 18, where it currently stands, the CBOE Volatility Index has had a mighty swing...
The great American “philosopher” Yogi Berra said it best: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” I think that applies well to the current market condition.
If history is any guide — and I think that it is relevant — then the selloff on Monday was a climactic one similar to the extreme selloffs that we saw during the Great Financial Crisis, and again amid the initial Covid outbreak.
Fear may have elevated to panic in yesterday’s session. To put that in perspective, let’s look at the CBOE Volatility Index — sometimes dubbed the “Fear Index” and at times does act as a barometer of outright panic.
In pre-opening trading this morning, the CBOE Volatility Index has traded as high as the 54 area, and that to me reflects full-on panic. But, the scenario here is not entirely different than October 1987….
The CBOE Volatility Index reached a higher high than its recent rally, moving above the 19 level yesterday. This morning…
Two headline factors may have been largely responsible for yesterday’s market action. For one, the Fed did indicate yesterday that it might cut rates in September…
As we begin the final trading day of July, technology continues to be a mixed bag, generally under pressure.
As we count down the final days of July, investors may be bracing for August and September — two months that are not historically friendly for the stock market.
Technology failed to hold the line yesterday with semiconductors, and other subcategories of technology, breaking below their widely watched short-term moving average trend lines.
Yesterday’s market action may have strengthened the short-term outlook for stocks; I say that because a number of technical factors played pretty significantly during the course of trading yesterday.
Yesterday’s market action was the latest showcasing of rotation, and it did intensify in yesterday’s trading, leaving behind the Nasdaq and the more aggressive growth areas of the market once again with the Dow really shining.
Rotation was clearly evident in yesterday’s trading action, but it has been a regular occurrence in the stock market for many weeks. I think this has been….
Earlier this year, I mentioned that this bull could become a G.O.A.T. and I think that we’re on that path for this bull market run to be one of the best in modern history — maybe even the best ever.
Stock futures rallying this morning presumably in part because former President Trump survived the assassination attempt this weekend.
Yesterday’s market action showcased one of its most important attributes, and that is it’s broad and diverse sector participation.
The stock market heading into the second quarter earnings reporting season structurally sound from a technical perspective.
Rotational consolidations appear to be intensifying among a number of different sectors and themes, and I think that the major market indices could become lodged in a limited trading range over the near term.
It is out with the old and in with the new as today marks the beginning of the 3rd quarter of 2024. And the old wasn’t so bad…the 1st half of 2024 delivered quite nicely…
I think the quarter was quite revealing in certain ways: certainly the big highlight of the quarter was technology, and more specifically the Artificial Intelligence sub-category.
Yesterday was a flip flop in performance from the prior day’s action; yesterday the Nasdaq rallied by 200+ points, while the Dow fell nearly 300 points — somewhat of a mirror opposite from the prior session.
Biotechnology was a glistening theme in yesterday’s session. An FDA approval on a drug and positive test results for another drug spurred big gains in 2 of the biotech stocks, which put the focus on healthcare generally, once again.
Some market observers are calling for a significant correction over the short run; I can see where they’re making that case from a technical perspective.
It’s easy enough to make the argument that the stock market might be overdue for a pullback, but that might be the very reason why the market could continue to move higher…
After months of tracking very closely with one another, the Nasdaq is pulling well ahead of the S&P 500 and the Russell 3000…
Investors continue to accept more risk for more reward, and this is evident top down with the DJIA trailing considerably behind the Nasdaq and S&P 500…
What do paper towel and dish detergent stocks have in common with Silicon Valley stocks? Both industries are sporting stocks that are moving toward, or into, 52-week high territory.
Buying could be starting to move into the fever-pitch phase, especially for growth generally and technology specifically following yesterday’s Fed announcement…
I’ve made the point that choosing the technically best-class stocks from a number of leadership categories, and emerging leadership categories, can yield better results than the major market indices themselves.
The recent record-high feats in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have not promoted indiscriminate or speculative buying to any significant degree; if anything…
With their recent breakouts into record territory, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have completed their cup-and handle formations. This is significant because these formations, historically, indicate durability, elasticity and sustainability of a trend.
Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: Yesterday’s breakaways in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq completed cup-and-handle formations for those two indices.
This May has been a "Sell in May and go away" scenario for stocks....It's been a very strong month for the market.
The Dow has now fallen 2.5% from it's recent all time high. The bulk of that decline occurred yesterday.
The Dow has now fallen 2.5% from it's recent all time high. The bulk of that decline occurred yesterday.
First quarter earnings results from an AI chip giant is sending the stock higher pre-opening.
I recently mentioned how the precious metal mining stocks are showing improving relative strength with several breaking out into new, high territory. There is another natural resource category that is also showing…
I’ve commented on this many times since the October bottom last year: The stock market’s advance has been driven not by a handful of stocks, but by a number of broad and diverse sectors and themes. That was illustrated last Friday when…
The major market indices punching through their respective resistance channels in grand style yesterday. I say, “in grand style” because…
Hopes may be dimming on Wall Street that the Fed will be lowering rates anytime soon, but on the other hand, the stock market often thrives on pricing power.
So far this month, the DJIA is the #1 performer among the major market indices, even edging out the Nasdaq, which has been the #2 performer in May.
Even with all the rotation we’ve seen in the market the last several weeks, the major market indices are tracking very closely with one another in terms of their year-to-date performance…
As we move through the month of May, the question becomes, “Will this be a year of ‘Sell in May and go away’?”
The 1st quarter earnings reporting season has arguably been a factor with respect to the market’s durability and elasticity in recent weeks.
From the start of this year through mid-April, bearish sentiment has been tracking in the low to mid 20 percentile…
For a number of months now, the AI theme has caught the attention and imagination of investors, and there certainly has been a lot of “hoopla” around this category.
Yesterday’s decline was blamed on investors’ anxieties about today’s Fed decision regarding interest rates. It’s a bit of a head scratcher because the Fed did telegraph the greater likelihood they may not move to lower rates right now…
The recent sharp and sudden downturn in AI stocks and technology generally, I think really illustrates, and underscores, the underlying technical strengths of this market…
The beauty of the stock market runs more than just skin deep. Last week the S&P 500 posted its best weekly performance since last November.
This has been another week of expansive intraday trading swings for the stock market, but we have seen a more resilient tone. I think that resilient tone is significant…
Yesterday’s market had a different feel to it, a better feel. There seemed to be a renewal of some degree of resiliency, and we saw that early on in the session.
Last Friday’s session presented a glass half full scenario, at least from my perspective. I say that because the overall market held up relatively well given the big selling pressure in AI stocks and technology generally.
It has been a challenging week for stocks. On the surface perhaps, we could attribute this to a consolidation, probably somewhat overdue…
The stock market continues to hold on to intraday rallies and this underscores the ongoing uncertainties that investors face on a number of fronts, the latest of which…
With the major market indices trading below their respective short-term moving average trend lines, the onus remains on the bulls, short term.
Yesterday’s market action represented the 3rd key intraday reversal for stocks in as many weeks. This underscores faltering upward momentum…
This morning the stock market is absorbing the news of Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel over the weekend.
Yesterday rallies in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were impressive but from a technical perspective they were not game changers. At least not yet....
The CBOE Volatility Index above the 16 level this morning and within just a few basis points of its recent intra-day highs. So, it is breaching that near-term pattern of intra-day peaks…
With the AI theme under pressure, but the general market is holding up remarkably well, but not a great surprise given the fact this has been a broad-based recovery from the lows struck last October.
Put aside the Fed, the upcoming 1st quarter earnings reporting season, and geopolitical factors…today we have a total solar eclipse on our hands and it will be interesting to see how the stock market reacts….
Another high-volume reversal for the major market indices, the second to occur in a little more than a week. This is certainly a concerning signal that…
Some firms are issuing more cautious outlooks for the stock market. This may be a good thing for the market outlook short-term.
The CBOE Volatility Index reflecting some shakeup of complacency in yesterday’s session, with the VIX (“Fear Index”) moving above the 15 level.
AI stocks appear to be sputtering ahead of the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, which should come as no surprise given the big gains that this category has scored year to date.
It was 26 years ago that I first appeared on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser and I was billed the “No April Fool.”
Rotation was on full display in yesterday’s session, a session that saw the Dow and S&P 500 rally into uncharted territory…
The stock market has been consolidating over the last three trading sessions, essentially since its initial, positive knee-jerk reaction to the Fed’s announcement last week that it may cut rates up to three times this year.
The S&P 400 Midcap Index is up just under 8% year to date. That puts its performance in close proximity to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. I think this is important because…
Yesterday’s market was the latest example of how difficult, if not futile, it is to try to sharp shoot near-term support and resistance targets, and to set objectives for the major market indices.
This is a Fed-decision Wednesday. The Fed due to announce its decision on interest rates early this afternoon and perhaps more importantly investors will be awaiting the accompanying statement…
The CBOE Volatility Index (“fear index”) has been in a basic downtrend since October 2022, but since then there have been several instances where it has established a short-term base…
Several weeks ago, I mentioned that it seemed to me that the CBOE Volatility Index was in a bottoming formation, and that I believe continues to be the case…
March has ushered in a bit more volatility. I think this is part of that micro-cycle factor…
Energy is the “E” in “THEM” — an acronym I first mentioned nearly 20 years ago to describe what I believed was the core leadership in the market at the time.
AI stocks snapped back sharply yesterday, but most failed to move above the level set in last Friday’s session.
Yesterday I commented on the high-volume reversals that we saw in a number of the AI stocks and other aggressive growth areas…but I don’t think we’ve seen a major top in that area of the market.
The seemingly unrelenting rally in AI stocks may have faced its first technical challenge in last Friday’s session.
Investor sentiment numbers can be interpreted to suit one’s narrative; for instance, last December I noted that with a bullish consensus rising above the 50% level…
I mention frequently how important it is to consider the underlying market and regarding the stocks individually and letting them really guide where the real strengths of the market are with respect to leadership.
Over the years there have been a number of liquidity-driven rallies in the stock market, and these were often the result of a significant event; for instance, in the late 1990s...
February delivered balanced performances among the major market indexes:
The Russell 3000, S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial.
In recent reports, I've been mentioning the potential for heightened volatility and a market that could be a bit more reactive to day-to-day events and news items.
It seems that at least for the moment the buying frenzy in AI stocks may be cooling off, and that’s not such a bad thing since…
It probably isn’t difficult to make the case that the market is somewhat overbought given the gains that we’ve seen since last October, and even since the beginning of this year.
Yesterday’s big market rally featured technology, and more specifically, the AI stocks. We did see quite the enthusiastic buying…
Selling could become a bit contagious over the near term, that is as traders sense that the major market indices may be leveling off, or even rolling over a bit…
The advanced decline lines among the major market indices have exhibited steadily improving trend lines since the October lows of last year.
I think that there are increasing signs that we could see the market enter into a more extended consolidation than we’ve seen in a couple of months. This is not all bad, seeing how some of these aggressive growth stocks have…
Logic would seem to dictate that some restraint might be warranted at this point. The Dow and S&P 500 both perched at new all-time highs.
It’s Groundhog Day in Pennsylvania, but it’s anything but on Wall Street. The market continues to provide some exciting action here.
History has a way of repeating itself and I believe this statement is especially true when it comes to the stock market.
As of yesterday’s closing, and ahead of the last trading day of January, the performances of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are very similar. In fact, they’re within 7 basis points of each other.
Much of the glory for the stock market this month has been focused on the major market indices with the Dow and S&P 500 moving into all-time record high territory.
For those who follow the “as goes January, so goes the year” theory, it’s good news for the bulls, with the major market indices higher so far this month.
Momentum is back in the picture for the stock market and it’s especially evident among a number of the popular technology names, but it’s also evident in…
January has ushered in mostly sunny skies for the stock market with the Dow and S&P 500 reaching all-time, record-high territory…
The stock market continues to impress on a number of fronts; one of those being its self-policing exercises…
Consider all the challenges that investors have faced in recent years: monetary, economic, geopolitical, and other headwinds have been impactful at different points in the last several years and more.
Late last year I mentioned that sentiment numbers for the stock market can be interpreted by one’s desire or perspective, and as it became more convincing…
Last week’s reaction to inflation data might have been more tied to investors awaiting the 4th quarter earnings reporting season than it was to actual concerns and worries about the Fed’s next steps.
Resiliency is the key feature in this market, and this is something that we’ve been seeing time and again, especially since the bottom in October 2023.
My recent commentary might well be construed to convey a message of dismissiveness with respect to the opening days of 2024, and how the end of the year might go.
I want to take this opportunity to wish every a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays; may it be a very special time for all of you!
Several years ago, just before the outbreak of Covid, I mentioned an ultimate target for the DJIA of 42,000.
The DJIA now stands some 1600 points above its July peaks, the Nasdaq is now some 400 points above its July peaks, and the S&P 500 is well above its July highs.
The DJIA, the lagging index year to date, now stands at an all-time record high; and that is no small feat.
For those who rely on daily headline news for their investment decisions, this may seem like a confusing market environment. But since the October lows…
There continues to be a lot of movement in this market. The rotation that continues at a very quick pace and if one were to try to connect the dots on a very near-term basis might lead to a number of dead ends.
For those looking at the market day by day, or even hour by hour, this could be a frustrating period ahead; we’ve seen a taste of it in the last several sessions.
As we move into the final weeks of trading for 2023, the Nasdaq continues to have a commanding lead over the other major indexes....
We could be seeing Investors turn their attention from stocks to stockings during the holiday season, thereby causing a low in the market.
The major stock indexes are now within striking distance of their respective July peaks.
With the proliferation of cup-and-handle formations across several sectors and themes, it’s difficult to make a bearish case for the stock market.
From time to time, I have referred to the AAII Sentiment Survey reflecting on the bearish/bullish sentiment readings. Back on November 1, the bearish sentiment had risen to…
Financials showing better relative strength behavior, their patterns have been improving pretty steadily here and while they’re not forefront leaders, they are participating more significantly in the market recovery.
From time to time, I have mentioned the importance of small- and mid-cap stocks as cornerstones of a significant and sustainable market advance.
In a single session, the major stock indices approached, or even exceeded in the case of the Nasdaq, their near-term resistance levels.
Yogi Berra said it: “It’s Déjà vu all over again.” That phrase so aptly applies as Fed Chairman Powell comes out with a statement that puts a scare into the stock market indicating that the Fed is still concerned about inflation.
The CBOE Volatility Index could hold in the mid-teens here over the short run and even beyond. I think with the market becoming a bit quieter, that is a good thing.
I recently made the case that with the major market indices violating their respective 200-day moving average levels, we could see a reversal — a technical “head fake.”
Technology, energy & industrials are among the sectors that have been exhibiting the best relative strength, but I am keeping my eye on some of the laggards.
Yesterday’s rally on Wall Street lifted most “boats” from aerospace to utilities and many sectors and themes in between.
For weeks now there has been a faceoff between the quality of earnings and the uncertainties of the outlook for interest rates. Interest rate worries are outweighing…
As of yesterday’s closing, the S&P 500 joined the DJIA in breaching its widely watched moving average trend line support, and that’s an intermediate-term trend line, so that’s a significant breach.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq tenderly holding at their respective trend lines; these are widely-watched moving trend lines. As I mentioned last Friday…
With the major market indices on the cusp of breaking their recent lows, I think we could be looking at a 5%-or-greater decline.
The stock market spooked once again by comments from Fed Chairman Powell when he indicated that the Fed would remain focused on inflation.
Today is the 36-year anniversary of the infamous 1987 crash. It should be noted that one of the contributing factors was higher interest rates.
For weeks now the stock market’s trading activity has been characterized by resiliency and elasticity.
Last year at this time the stock market was in the process of finalizing a bottom and was about to embark on a rally that would carry into mid-July of this year.
Yesterday I mentioned that the stock market could soon feel the pinch of overhead supply among the major market indices…but in yesterday’s session they failed to clear their 9/29 peaks and intraday peaks set earlier this week which setup a bit of a technical selling point.
The major stock indices have uniformly established nice base formations that could indicate the lows set recently could be the lows set for the cycle.
A year ago the stock market was in the process of bottoming and on the verge of launching a big rally that would carry into mid-July.
A few weeks ago I made the observation that investors’ perceptions might be shifting with respect to the interest rate outlook.
This morning we are seeing reactions in the markets globally to the horrific invasion of Israel by Hamas over the weekend.
News items and data releases on the economic monetary and geo-political fronts could have larger than usual sway on the stock market as we move into the middle part of October.
At face value, yesterday's market rebound may have been little more than a relief rally.
The economic monetary and political culprits behind yesterday's decline have been advertised but interest rates play the biggest role for the stock market.
The recent list of high volume gainers, it is evident that the stock market is promoting stock picking.
The new week begins with the major market indexes on the cusp of decisively breaching their August lows.
Breached pennant formations among the major market indexes are having a techinical impact on stocks.
A poker-faced market as investors await the Fed’s decision tomorrow afternoon; the consensus seems to be that they won’t raise rates.
There is an old Wall Street adage that dates back to 1915 that says, “Sell on Rosh Hashana and buy on Yom Kippur.”
For the stock market, resiliency is an important factor to consider, especially amid many headline challenges that investors face on a daily basis.
Perhaps one of the best things that can be said about the stock market at this point is that the major market indices are holding at, or very near, the upwardly revised support levels.
Common thread among major market indexes. Their patterns are similar, producing a trend of descending peaks but ascending lows.
Today is the 22nd anniversary of the September 11th attacks. May we always remember and honor the civilians, firemen, police, first responders and military who lost their lives on that day.
The latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors shows that bearish consensus has fallen significantly, and it is now standing well below its historical norm around 31.
The sharp and abrupt selloff that we’ve seen in some sectors and themes since mid-July can be interpreted in several ways. My take is…
Referencing history, August didn’t deliver any real surprises for investors who were more inclined to be stock-picking focused, or more centered on sectors than themes, it wasn’t such a bad month. But those who were looking from a top-down perspective…
I don’t think it’s a stretch to equate the stock market with a prize fighter who takes on contender after contender and wonks every one of them, and that’s what we’ve seen here in August.
It should come as no great surprise that technical factors are quite mixed as we come to the end of August. This has been a very choppy, erratic and reactive month for stocks…
Shortly after mid-July when the major market indices hit what were to be short-term peak levels, I cautioned that August could present seasonal and cyclical headwinds.
The rally in the Nasdaq yesterday — the biggest one so far this month — was encouraging, but it didn’t pierce through the near-term resistance level.
Generally speaking, net money flow trends are indicating that money is staying in the stock market, but that it is rotating among different categories.
A more cautious stance was taken after mid-July around the time major stock indexes peaked.
The AI craze on Wall Street may be dissipating and this is something to watch closely in the coming days and weeks. Numerous stocks in the AI-related theme are showing signs of ebbing upward momentum…
Yesterday the spotlight was on the traditional cyclicals — a category I’ve been mentioning for some time as an important group to watch in terms of rotational characteristics.
Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: We are just about at the midpoint of August and it seems the doldrums are setting in on Wall Street; there seems to be little conviction, buying or selling.
Looking at a chart of the DJIA for this week’s trading, we see a real sawtooth pattern; I think that this is a trend that we will see for weeks to come.
In recent weeks I’ve been mentioning that I believe that the stock market is going to adhere to a trading range pattern that could continue well into September, and maybe even a little bit beyond.
The stock market could be reverting to a more reactive state, something that we have seen in the past, but for some time the market’s focal point was forward looking.
With a majority of the S&P 500 companies reporting 2nd quarter earnings, the results are not all that terrific.
Since reaching peak levels earlier in July, a number of technology leaders have consolidated and then rallied back, but the subsequent rallies have not…
Technology continues it massive lead in the market with the Nasdaq up by nearly 35%, which compares with the S&P 500 up nearly 19% and the Dow is trailing considerably, up just 7%. But one of the storylines here…
The S&P 500 has notched a new record high and the DJIA has put together a pretty impressive string of daily advances, but still no indication of capitulation on the part of the bears.
As we move through the 2nd quarter earnings reporting season, there isn’t anything really dramatic to report. The earnings seem to be supporting the individual stock prices.
Buying momentum among a number of the forefront technology leaders was evident in last Thursday’s session with high-volume selloffs pretty much across the board.
The DJIA has severely lagged behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq year to date. The Dow is up by a little more than 6%, while the S&P 500 is up ~18% and the Nasdaq ~34%.
Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: Rotation is an important element for a healthy market environment and it’s an important characteristic in a sustainable market advance.
You don’t have to be a contrarian to recognize that there are other stock sectors and themes that are doing quite well beyond the “Magnificent 7” technology names that have been mathematically driving the S&P 500 higher.
I mentioned last Friday that the major market indices were approaching targets that I thought might not be seen until later this year. For instance…
Some years ago it was Alcoa that officially launched the earnings reporting season, but today it’s the financials and this morning several financials are reporting and beating Wall Street expectations.
There was encouraging news on the inflation front, but no real tendency to sell into the good news.
The fact that just a handful of companies are driving the performance of the S&P 500 year to date makes for good academic fodder and is mathematically correct, but otherwise I think…
The market is in a limbo stage as we await the 2nd quarter earnings reporting season. This often happens where we do get some consolidation, rotation and hesitation ahead of the earnings reporting season.
Surely after the lows that were struck last October I had noted how Growth was breaking its downward momentum. As we finished off the first half of 2023, I’ve seen indications that Growth might be breaking its upward momentum.
Some bears are doubling down on their dire predictions for the stock market, which is music to the ears of contrarians. Some would say the market is climbing a “Wall of Worry”…
To the casual, Main Street observer — and even to some seasoned Wall Streeters — the market’s advance year to date might seem confusing, even confounding for the bearish, but the market’s persistent and steady gains indicate…
As I monitor technical factors, it seems that the market’s state right now is a bit rudderless, in a limbo stage, which means it will probably stay in a trading range over the short run.
With only three sessions remaining in the 1st half of 2023, it's clear the prediction I made in the 4th quarter of last year is not going to come to fruition — that call was that the Dow could challenge its all-time highs by the end of the 1st half of this year.
In recent sessions there has been stepped up rotation where we have seen some profit taking in technology categories into some of the more traditional cyclicals.
With the market in a consolidation phase, I thought it might be appropriate to revisit and revise my support and upside target levels for the major market indices.
Artificial Intelligence, and other of the tech-related sectors, were generally under selling pressure yesterday. Not a big surprise given the big gains they have amassed year to date.
“Event or non-event?” is the question as we await today’s Fed decision. I’m going with non-event mostly because of the action in the underlying market.
The stock market is in Fed-watch mode…or is it? It seems the market’s focal point has been stretching more toward the horizon, and is not so reactive to day-to-day events, or even the Fed meeting.
I’m not a big proponent of the 20% rule — that rule calls for the market to be in a bullish cycle if a particular index goes up by 20% or more from its low point, or bear market if down by 20% or more.
This week’s market action has reinforced the pivot qualities of last Friday’s trading and I think we could see a continuation of that.
There is an A-list of sectors and themes that appear to be establishing attractive technical bottoming and base formations that could indicate reversals for these categories.
Last Friday was an unremarkable day for the major market indices, but it was quite a different story for the underlying market.
Rotation could play a more significant — if not critical — role in the market’s outlook, not just short term, but long term as well.
Taking into account the ongoing headline challenges, it’s not so surprising to see and hear the analysts’ hair trigger comments about the stock market outlook.
The stock market, and in particular the Dow and S&P 500, have been in a pretty limited range recently; we could see as relatively constructive given some of the challenges that the market continues to face.
Technology added to its colossal gains from last week, but as we got further into yesterday’s session we saw some significant reversals amid high volume. It is likely now that…
Technology sported some colossal gains last week, especially among the semiconductor stocks. This raises the question among some, especially the more skeptical market observers as to whether or not this could be the start of another tech bubble.
Momentum has returned to the stock market environment and some might find this as a cautionary indication, especially among the bearish camp.
The stock market continues to flutter amid uncertainties as to how the debt ceiling talks will progress. I thought one of the takeaways in yesterday’s session…
Six trading days remain in May, which begs the question if this year is a “Sell in May and go away” scenario. I don’t think that it is.
Sir John Templeton eloquently defined a bull market. He said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
I recently observed that the Russell 2000 Growth Index seemed to be in a good bottoming pattern and we are now seeing it beginning to break out above that base formation. I find that encouraging for the outlook for the market.
It seems that the major indices are tracking pretty closely with their shot-term moving averages, which isn’t all bad as for many weeks they’ve been in a trading range.
The DJIA has been relegated to the irrelevant category with its performance year to date, and I think it’s a reflection of how the market is behaving — that there are certain stocks that aren’t participating…
For months now there has been a steady drone of bearish forecasts, if not dire outlooks for the stock market, based on expectations that the economy was headed for recession. While that might still be the case…
The very fact that the stock market seems lodged in a limited trading range would seem to reflect pedestrian technicals and a relatively listless trend. But I don’t see that as the case at all…
It may be subtle, but I think that the 1st quarter earnings season is having a generally positive impact on the stock market.
I think the market gets good technical grades for its performance last week after withstanding the cumulative challenges of the Fed’s rate hike, the ongoing banking worries and the continuing chatter about recession.
I didn’t discern any real surprises in yesterday’s Fed statement following their widely anticipated decision to raise rates by 25 basis points. Perhaps one of the angles might have been…
I began my career back in 1974, which was right in the midst of a grueling grizzly bear market that extended for years with very few opportunities during that time.
Even though the major stock indices have much different performances year to date with the Nasdaq well out in the lead and the Dow bringing up the rear…
Historically the stretch between November and May is a positive time for the stock market, and this has proven to be the case this year.
Yesterday’s rally was accompanied by generally higher volume and from a technical research 101 perspective, that’s an encouraging sign.
Several random thoughts and observations — for one, the 1st quarter earnings that have been reported so far have not really been a great surprise from the market’s perspective…
It seems Wall Street observers are determined to put the stock market in a particular box – bullish camp or the bearish camp.
It’s early in the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, but my casual sketch observation of earnings is that they’re coming in better than expected across a number of different sectors.
As we move to the heart of the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, the market seems to be in a pause mode, but this is pretty normal and acceptable from a technical standpoint.
As we move into the thick of the 1st quarter earnings reporting season, there isn’t too much to report. Those companies that have reported their earnings have seen mixed reactions, but I think the takeaway, at least so far, is…
Sentiment indicators can be interpreted to fit almost any market narrative. For instance, they can be interpreted as a contrary indication of market behavior…
In the 4th quarter of last year, I predicted that the Dow could challenge its all-time record highs by the end of the first half of 2023. I never abandoned that forecast, but I had my doubts around March 10…
The market’s more elastic, resilient, durable tone is becoming more apparent among market watchers, giving bears less to hang their hats on.
The stock market in a quiet mode — more or less a “wait and see” posture — in advance of the 1st quarter reporting season. As I’ve mentioned recently, I think the market could be vulnerable over the coming days…
Ahead of the 1st quarter earnings season, perhaps the prudent thing is to observe a “Missourian Stance” — a bit of a “show me” stance — in the very near term.
Energy and aerospace defense were two standout categories in yesterday’s session, connecting the dots that this might cast an ominous shadow with respect to geopolitical concerns.
The stock market finishing the 1st quarter on a high note in last Friday’s session. I think all-in-all it was a pretty good showing for the quarter…
Market naysayers may soon have to make a decision, especially ahead of the Q1 earnings season — that decision is whether or not to stay on the sidelines, or remain short, etc. before the earnings are released.
There’s an old English adage that, “March comes in like a lion and but leaves like a lamb.” I think that’s something we could adopt to the stock market…
With the stock market steady following the financial debacle a couple of weeks ago, this might a good time to revisit Peter Lynch’s famous statement, “It’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market.”
It is not unusual that some of the most dire predictions are made at, or near, a market bottom….
As we begin the final trading day of the week, there seems to be more confusion than resolution, more questions than answers on a number of fronts, but especially the banking debacle.
Regarding the Fed’s decision today, it’s not so much what the central bank may do, but what they will say. The wording of their statement could be quite important for the market…
I mentioned the other day how more often than not, March tends to produce a pivotal market action and these movements seem to occur around the 10th of the month.
It has been said that the stock market behaves today what it sees on the 6-month horizon. But can that same timeline be applied to market sentiment?
Happy St. Patrick’s Day! There seems to be an overwhelming consensus view that the stock market will break below its October lows. I’m not so sure that will happen because…
Often before a significant market correction is completed, we find that the market’s leadership stalwarts come under pressure and are taken to the shed, and yesterday we saw that in a number of the traditional cyclical categories.
The stock market grappling with the latest headline declines among the financials. This morning the news focused on Credit Suisse and this is keeping fear at elevated levels.
The market holding up relatively well in my estimation, especially considering there was quite a bit of fear mongering over the weekend and right up to and through yesterday’s opening bell.
It seems that more often than not, March delivers some sort of an expansive swing — a dramatic trading move that more often than not can prove to be pivotal.
There are times when human emotion might refute the consistent — if not persistent — trends in the market. That is when the market’s behavior doesn’t line up with conventional wisdom, etc.
Health care was a highlight in yesterday’s session as we continue to see rotation back into some of the more traditional market categories.
The old and enduring Wall Street quip, “The trend is your friend” is particularly applicable in this market environment. With the major stock indices fenced in a limited range, I think…
I think that the most likely scenario for the stock market over the short run is a trading-range pattern, and one that sees…
In yesterday’s session we did see some indications that the indices were stabilizing, and this amid the release of the Fed Minutes.
Yesterday’s rate-driven decline in the stock market delivered the major indices to within the upper margins of support. That does leave open the possibility of further decline…
It would seem the stock market is running out of steam, but it’s more likely a consolidation — rather than an evaporation — of the year-to-date gains. I say that because…
Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: There was some fear and loathing in anticipation of January’s CPI data, released yesterday. It did come in a little higher but the market’s reaction was relatively subdued. *Due to travel, the next update will be on Tuesday, 2/21.
Happy Valentine’s Day! If there is high anxiety about the CPI report for January, it has not been reflected in the stock market.
As the Nasdaq made its way toward my upwardly revised target of 12,500 earlier this month, I had advised that I believed that the easy gains were probably realized at that point for the Nasdaq and technology.
Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks yesterday that the disinflation process is beginning spurred a rally among the major market indices with the Nasdaq, once again, leading the way.
There was some moderate rotation in yesterday’s session and as I’ve mentioned, this is something that I’m hoping to see more of as the market consolidates its year-to-date gains.
The Nasdaq coming within 50 points of my most recently upwardly revised target for that index at the 12,250 level. It pulled back on Friday, but not a big surprise after…
About a year ago at this time, the stock market was chasing support levels, especially the Nasdaq which seemed to be breaking through one support level after another. This year, is certainly a different picture…
Yesterday’s action was the latest indication that last year’s double bottoms in September & October among the major market indices might have been quite substantive and predictive of what was to come.
Stocks finished on a strong note with yesterday’s performance which wrapped up January. The old adage, “As goes January, so goes the year” once again favors the bullish camp.
Technology has been on a tear since the start of the year, which is certainly a contrast to what we saw a year ago when 2022 began.
It’s become a challenge, if not a competition, among economists to predict just when, if at all, a recession will surface.
Resiliency is a developing story and an emerging characteristic for the stock market in the early weeks of 2023.
A lukewarm outlook from a major software company could cool the big run up in technology that we’ve seen since the start of this year. This would probably be a welcome event for the market.
The Nasdaq continues to shine. As of yesterday’s closing it is up 8.58% year to date, which is trouncing the S&P 500 and Dow.
Larry Kudlow recently quipped that, “This might be the most anticipated recession since the 16th century.” And therein might be an important reason that the market is behaving so…
The first 10 trading days of 2023 have provided underlying support for the bullish camp, but it has been a bumpy ride since…
Yesterday’s session marked the 10th trading of 2023 and there are those who put a lot of importance in how the first 10 trading days of the year fair…
Is it triskaidekaphobia, investors’ reactions to big banks earnings results, or just a collective deep breath following a nice rally this week?
The Nasdaq breaking out above a short-term resistance trend line and that trend line was coming through the 10,850 area, which is significant because…
I mentioned recently that I would look at the first 10 days of January to give some indication or confirmation regarding my constructive outlook for 2023, especially for the first half as it pertains to the Dow.
The stock market’s day-to-day movements in reaction to news items or data points that might give some insight into inflation, the Fed’s moves, and whether or not we’re headed toward a recession can be very frustrating…
In the open trading days of 2023, investors have been reminded of the Fed’s hawkish monetary stance. This has been underscored by the Fed Minutes this week.
The stock market’s reaction to the content of the Fed’s Minutes, I thought was quite encouraging.
One session may not provide a reliable stock market outlook, but 10 very well may. Some market statisticians believe the first 10 trading days of January may define the outlook for the remainder of the year.
The market action yesterday didn’t change my view that we are essentially in a three-tiered market with those tiers represented by the DJIA, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
I think the action in the VIX is subject to interpretation. On the one hand I do see the VIX building a base formation in proximity to its current level, but…
Year to date, an index with just 30 component stocks — the DJIA — is far outperforming the other major stock indices.
Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas! Of course this week may see another one of those trading vacuums as we see investors leave for the holidays, which might allow for some rally here.
In my view, more often than not, investors make poor investment decisions when they’re reacting to the daily news and headlines of the day.
There’s widespread agreement that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points this week. But when it comes to the Fed, that is as far as the consensus view goes…
I am updating my outlook for the Nasdaq generally and for technology more specifically. Weeks I mentioned that I thought the Nasdaq was bottoming along with…
When talking outlook, the generic term “stock market” simply cannot be used in this environment; this is a multi-tiered market and in looking at the DJIA…
The market’s high reactivity to day-to-day events underscores investor uncertainty especially pertaining to the Fed and prospects for a recession in 2023.
Resiliency is the predominant technical characteristic playing in the stock market these days, and I think that reflects positively on the ongoing shift in investor psychology.
Yesterday’s market action, which followed what I would characterize as a trading vacuum rally last week, reinforced the downtrends in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
I think we could see some consolidation and triggering factors for a pullback — China being one of the headlines this morning.
In many cases, we’re seeing a more contoured pattern playing out in the leadership categories, but for certain sectors such as technology the pattern is more choppy.
All things considered technically, it seems the market is going to remain in a restricted trading range at least over the short run, but this is allowing the Dow to…
Last week’s high-volume advance in the Nasdaq drove it above its 50-day moving average. It was a very significant event…
Soon after yesterday's closing bell, a famous investor was quoted as saying that yesterday’s market advance was more than a bear market rally.
Year to date the DJIA stands out as the best-performing major index, down about 10.5%, whereas the S&P 500 is down about twice that.
If the Dow can move decisively above its 34,200 resistance line it would bolster the formation that developed in late summer and early fall.
Since 1946 the stock market has rallied 17 out of the last 19 midterm elections, but that is not what I’m basing my outlook on…
The market’s near-term upside has probably been defined by the intraday rally that followed the Fed’s decision on Wednesday…
It was a technical analysis 101 reaction following yesterday’s announcement by the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points.
Arguably a portion of the market’s recent recovery is attributable to the expectations that the Fed will begin to moderate its rate hikes after today’s announcement.
October has been known for its historical declines, but it has also produced some historical pivots along the way. This October may have been one of those...
Happy Halloween! All treats on Friday with strung-across-the-board rallies, very uniform too.
The DJIA continues to present itself as the standout index year to date and is by far outperforming the Nasdaq and considerably outperforming the S&P 500.
Yesterday morning investors were bracing for reactions to disappointing earnings results among several big tech names, but…
Year-to-date there’s been a big divergence between growth and value if we consider the Dow vs the Nasdaq.
A couple of weeks ago I observed that the CBOE VIX — “fear index” — might be forming a significant head-and-shoulders formation. I saw that as a constructive indication that…
For investors seeking technical evidence that the stock market may be bottoming and even turning to the upside, the 50-day moving average trend lines among the major market indices might be something worth considering, but…
On 10/19/1987, there was no CBOE Volatility Index. That index would not be established until 1993, but if there was a VIX at the time, there likely would have been records that would not have been broken since.
For a number of weeks now my more constructive outlook for the stock market has been based on a bottom-up perspective…
We are just two days away from the 35th anniversary of the October 19, 1987 stock market crash. This serves as a reminder that October can be a pretty brutal month for volatility and trading swings.
Given the hectic stream of data and information, it’s not surprising that investors are very focused on the here and now, on the hour-by-hour action in the stock market. This might be obscuring the longer-term view…
To a certain degree the real feel of this market environment is probably dependent upon the way that one’s portfolio is positioned. I think this climate argues for strategic diversification.
When it comes to market sentiment, there isn’t much neutral ground — that is in looking at the AAII survey, the bearish sentiment continues to elevated at levels we haven’t seen since after 2009.
There are several factors technically and fundamentally that could promote a significant market bottom over the short run. Here are a few of the items…
“Elasticity” and “resiliency” are terms that have not been applicable very often this year, but those two characteristics were in play yesterday.
This year’s market action has conditioned investors to be wary of a day like yesterday when we see big gains among the major market indices….
Since its initial breakaway above the 34 level, the VIX hasn’t followed through and in fact has retreated back into its previous resistance range.
Today marks the final trading day of the 3rd quarter and the last of September — historically the cruelest month for stocks — which is down ~6% among the major market indices.
Yesterday’s broad-based rally had some technical “giddy up” but not enough to change the short-term outlook for the market.
From a stock market perspective, Rosh Hashanah also represents an old Wall Street adage, “Sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur.” There might be some validity to that from a cyclical perspective.
The latest weekly survey of sentiment among investors shows a bearish consensus has risen to its highest level since March 2009.
The market’s most recent volatility is having a greater impact on investor psyche, and is being reflected in the fear index.
Clearly the market continues to be burdened by the headwinds of rising interest rates, but I did think we might get some kind of relief rally following the Fed’s announcement yesterday.
Whatever high anxiety remained ahead of today’s Fed announcement probably played out in yesterday’s session.
When assessing the market’s intermediate-term outlook — and I do have a bullish forecast looking into the 1st half of 2022 — I think that the real tells are in the rally days and not the declining sessions.
Last week’s tumultuous market action took us to the midpoint of September — the cruelest month historically for stock — and this month is proving to be a difficult one, but I don’t think it’s going to be a game changer either.
It may be early, but looking like this September might not be as cruel as had been anticipated earlier and not in keeping with its historical characteristic.
Yesterday’s rallies among the major market indices didn’t change my short-term outlook for the market to remain in a restricted trading range.
There are some indications — anecdotal and otherwise — that inflation may be starting to roll over…
For the stock market this year, it’s been a grizzly winter, a thawing spring and a bouncing summer, and now comes along autumn which is historically the cruelest month of the year.
Given the current trajectories of the trend lines, we could see convergences of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages among the major market indices by early to mid-October.
With the market’s deteriorating action this week, it is on a tender footing as it faces the seasonal headwinds of September and October.
The across-the-board violations of 50-day moving averages among the major stock indices was there for all to see…
With the summer session drawing to a close on Wall Street, my general observation is that it has been a constructive period.
There were no grand revelations or big surprises in Fed Chairman Powell’s comments last Friday, but in reading between the lines, it may be that investors sensed that the Fed is concerned that Biden Administration policies could fan inflation.
“Much ado about nothing;” that may be the case this morning from the Fed speech out of the Jackson Hole Summit.
Some sectors are thriving in this inflationary environment and with the stock market likely to remain fenced in a trading range for weeks to come, I think this further puts the spotlight on…
With Labor Day approaching, this is a pretty heavy vacation period and this is being reflected in the market.
Yesterday’s sizable decline among the major market indices brought them to within close proximity of my upwardly revised upper support levels.
A number of the market’s enduring longer-term thematic leaders are exhibiting improving relative strength and that is an important feature as the market continues to base build.
Just a few months ago there was a heightened urgency to sell. In late April the bear sentiment readings were at their highest point since the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
One of the most often asked questions I get recently is whether or not this is a good time to be entering the stock market.
Recent market action is making believers out of some skeptics. We’re hearing more chatter that there is the conviction now that the June lows may be the lows for some time to come.
Historically the outlooks for earnings and interest rates have really defined the course for the stock market — at least its basic course.
Several weeks ago I observed how the Nasdaq’s basing formation appeared considerably more robust than that of the other major indices. Since that time we’ve seen growth leading the rebound…
The market’s bottoming characteristics have shifted from a glass-half-empty to a glass-half-full scenario, meaning the underlying technical tone of the market has been improving…
Earlier this year I was scrambling to downwardly revise the target levels for the major market indices…
Relative strength picking up for some of the cyclical categories, especially energy and agricultural materials.
This is an event-filled week with earnings and the much-anticipated Fed meeting. Tech companies are due to report this week…
The Dow and the Nasdaq each approaching my trading-range targets of 32,000 and 12,000 respectively.
The Dow and the Nasdaq each breaking out above their respective 50-day moving average levels and doing so convincingly from a technical perspective.
Yesterday’s trading action didn’t bring much to the table technically, but the 50-day moving average levels did play a prominent role for the major market indices.
Since early May, one of the best-performing sectors has been healthcare but one of the worst-performing groups has been the financials; I mention this because this week kicks off the 2Q earnings reporting season.
Clearly the stock market is in a better place today than it was a few weeks ago, from a technical perspective the market has shown some constructive action. I think the real storyline here is the underlying market.
May stands as the important turning point in the market from my technical perspective; that is we saw heightened volatility but we did see a continuously descending volatility index.
The Fed’s shock & awe attack on inflation seems to be having an impact which is reflected in the stock market’s trends.
No surprise that investors are taking rallies at face value. It has been very frustrating in the first half of 2022 to see that rallies big and small have little substantive impact on the ongoing decline.
The first half of 2022 is in line to be about the worst first half in 50 years for the stock market which is attributable to a number of factors, but inflation is front and center.
Yesterday’s market action was further indication that the market is in a marathon and not a sprint as it pertains to base building and not likely to see a V-shaped recovery.
Volatility has calmed considerably from last month’s expansive trading swings and this has been reflected in the VIX which stands under 27.
As we count down the final days of June and the last days of 2Q I think things are shaping up quite well for the market. I believe there’s a better than even chance that the market has struck its bottom.
It remains too early to call an absolute or reliable bottom in the stock market, but this week’s action was encouraging from a technical perspective. For one, the market seemed more resilient…
Beginning with the January 24 reversal, there were a number of significant and dramatic turns in the market but they proved to be pitfalls to lower levels. It wasn’t until May when the market began to shift…
The market’s trading swings could consolidate into a somewhat more narrow range over the short run. For the Dow that range could be 31,000 on the upside and 29,500 on the lower end.
The ongoing grueling market action with its expansive trading swings, especially the movements to the downside, probably indicate that we’re not in for a bell ringer bottom.
More short-term pain for a longer-term gain seems to be the position the Fed is taking by raising rates by 75 basis points yesterday.
Yesterday’s New York Times ran a front-page graph showing the duration of bear markets extending back to 1980. What I thought was interesting was…
Diminishing confidence among both investors and consumers has taken its toll on Wall Street. The accelerating downtrend is based on a number of factors but the greatest is the Fed.
Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: The VIX moving to 33 this morning, putting it in the thick of near-term resistance that has been playing significantly in recent week.
Recently I noted that the Volatility Index can be subject to interpretation, but it is undeniable that in May — a pretty volatile month for stocks — the index was in a steady downtrend.
The latest AAII sentiment survey shows more of a balance between the bulls and the bears than we’ve seen in a long time.
A forecast for an economic hurricane played on investors’ psyche yesterday, but I would argue that it didn’t have the impact that it might have had even just a few weeks ago.
The first five months of 2022 have been characterized by high volatility and expansive trading swings due to investors’ reactions to headline news and technical movements.
A few observations as we begin the summer session on Wall Street. I think that the major market indices have established a bottom…
Another solid showing for stocks yesterday, and one that might be shifting the onus on the bears rather than on the bulls.
I think we might see a more consistent and reliable rebound than we’ve seen year to date, but certainly with some bumps along the way.
In my estimation the DJIA may be close to completing a formidable bottom and one that launches a rally.
The VIX is clearly in a pennant formation, with well-defined trend lines indicating ascending lows and descending peaks.
Last Friday’s session seemed to be one of those grueling selloffs going into the weekend, but buying came in before the close and the major market indices finished little changed.
Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: There are so many different commentaries right now, and they’re all valid comments, but from a technical standpoint, I think what we’re starting to see is a tug of war between the bears and the bulls…
Depending on the market condition the CBOE Volatility Index can be conveniently be interpreted to fit the narrative of the day or the moment, but in this case I’d view yesterday’s declining trend as…
The Dow has now extended its weekly losses to 7, but this could be the week that breaks that change of losses. I say that for several reasons…
Stocks higher this morning. There’s an old saying on Wall Street that “When Time Magazine recognizes the bear market on its cover, that it’s time to buy.”
Looking at the big volume days since March, they’re biased toward selling. Once this market finds its bottom, we could see a meaningful recovery — at least initially.
Given the market’s volatility and its delicate condition year to date, my daily commentaries have seemed more like a narration of the market’s action with a very near-term forecast. So today I’d like to project further toward the end of this year…
The market’s unrelenting selling pressure continues. Even though stocks are higher this morning, investors will probably look at this skeptically since rallies have proven to be fleeting.
Capitulation could be in the cards here, but I don’t think what we’re seeing this morning indicates that capitulation is imminent.
It’s understandable that some could be skeptical about yesterday’s rally as it really came after the Fed announced its intentions to raise rates by 50 basis points.
We could see a trading rally today and carry through the short run. I believe the Dow is poised to test resistance at the 34,000 level.
I think there’s a great deal of hesitation to proclaim that the latest market reversal is a technical bell ringer that might usher in a sustainable rebound.
Fear could be replaced by capitulation; that based on what we’ve seen the past two Fridays.
Yesterday’s market hesitated at the opening, but then it was off to the races and the major market indices held onto their lion’s share of gains.
The market is oversold and I think we could be in for a relief rally that tests some near-term resistance for the major market indices.
The CBOE Volatility Index — dubbed the “fear index” — finished yesterday around 33.50, still well below my target range between 36 and 42.
From technical scorched earth to seeds of hope, this has been the market’s MO this year.
Last Friday’s market action was a technically scorched-earth setting for stocks. What was most unsettling was perhaps that there was no one pinpoint factor or item to account for that decline.
Food, energy and water are all categories that are showing good relative strength within the marketplace.
The American Association of Individual Investors has published its latest sentiment survey and it shows a sharp decline in bullish consensus, well below the lows in mid-February.
In my estimation, the selloff in technology stocks has driven this category to highly oversold levels that probably largely bake-in the impact of higher interest rates on this aggressive growth sector.
Last week’s market behavior was characterized by a great deal of flip flopping between growth and value.
The Dow and the Nasdaq getting some technical traction at their respective support areas.
Yesterday’s most significant news for the stock market was the release of the Fed Minutes in which they outlined how they intend to taper.
Yesterday’s market action was a flip flop from the previous session with the Dow considerably outperforming the Nasdaq.
Yesterday’s 1.9% gain in the Nasdaq eclipsed gains in other major indices, including the Dow which was up just 30 basis points.
I’ve recently made the case that the market’s rebound later in the 1st quarter was substantive and could prove to be a launching pad to higher levels in 2022.
It was striking how similar the retreats were among the major market indices yesterday. My take on that is that it had more to do with end-of-the-quarter activities than news items.
The final day of a quarter that unleashed significant volatility amid a myriad of challenges on a number of fronts, including geopolitical, especially the Russia-Ukraine war.
One of the headline technical features in yesterday’s trading was the DJIA breaking out above its 200-day moving average at the 35,000 level.
From aerospace to utilities and many categories in between, the underlying market appears to be building a sturdy foundation that could serve as a launching pad for higher levels over the short run.
Technical indicators are aligning quite nicely indicating that we could see higher levels over the short term and I continue to be quite bullish about the market’s long-term prospects as well.
Volatility is simmering down; the VIX is trading near the 23 level, this after breaching near-term support at 27. This lower volatility is a welcome sign.
Four consecutive rally days puts into perspective the pivot days that we had in January, February and again this month…
Yesterday’s closing levels for the major market indices may have defined their upper boundaries for what could be a short-term trading range.
Yesterday’s market action may have proven to be something more than just a technical baby step toward recovery: the resiliency in the session was striking, impressive and the first back-to-back significant gains this year.
Consistency has been a missing element in this market environment; we’ve seen a number of pivot days, dramatic days and even a nice reversal day, but no follow through in any of those days.
Yesterday’s expansive trading swings were similar to the reversals we saw on January 24 and late last month, but didn’t yield a positive close.
Another all-too-familiar Monday rout with investors reacting to news from the weekend; and of course the indications that the Russia-Ukraine war could go on for quite an extended period.
Escalating tensions in the war between Russia and Ukraine putting pressure on stocks this morning.
“March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb.” It’s not just the historical weather report; I think that could prove to be the forecast for stocks.
Another expansive trading swing for the Dow and the other major market indices, but the Dow holding at the upper part of its support band.
From a top-down perspective, the stock market is exhibiting a more resilient tone and reinforced by the underlying market where more stocks are exhibiting healthy technical trends.
Last Friday’s dynamic reversal came one month after the January 24 pivot, which I think was the first indication of breaking downward momentum following weeks of unrelenting selling.
The latest sentiment survey indicates that bullish sentiment is at its lowest level in months. This might indicate that bulls are throwing in the towel — a potential precursor to a meaningful trading rally.
We’re still in a market that is toiling over political and geopolitical uncertainties, the Fed, how earnings will fair with the 1st quarter…
Buying on the dips may be easier said than done. It certainly does present a psychological challenge, but I think for those taking a longer-term investing perspective that a long-term approach does provide the best strategy in this environment.
Each day we are faced with the repetitive narratives explaining away the market’s behavior day to day and hour by hour.
Yesterday’s rally delivering the Dow right up to the 35,000, but closed just under. This millennium level represents more of a psychological resistance point than a technical one.
Stocks up sharply higher this morning; not a surprise technically since the major indices did move to the lower part of their pennant formations.
In yesterday’s report I mentioned the forming pennant formations in the major market indices — patterns of ascending peaks and descending lows and it seems like we might be on a trend to a convergence of those two trend lines.
The January 24th lows continue to look like a significant bottom for the market and an important one technically.
Another week of high reactivity to news events, indicating the market isn’t back to full health, but it might be in repair and I believe that is the case.
(Recorded after market close on 1/31): A few comments about today’s (1/31) action, especially since I believe it confirms last week’s action as being a pivotal point for the market technically…
Expansive trading swings in yesterday’s session pre- and post-Fed statement were reflected in the volatility index; the market still seems to be a bit on edge.
Monday’s market reversal may have signaled a significant — if not major — bottom for the growth category.
Yesterday’s market rebound was the first real technical reversal we’ve seen since this ratcheting decline began earlier this month; doesn’t mean we’re on the straight away for recovery, but is encouraging.
Complacency is being displaced by fear which could become a capitulation of sorts here over the near term.
Yesterday’s market action was another one of those familiar “rally failures” and disconcerting from a technical standpoint.
As of yesterday’s closing, the Nasdaq is within less than 100 points of the lows it struck last October; this is an area where I would expect some kind of a technical bounce.
From both technical and psychological standpoints, I would make the case that this is possibly the most vulnerable point of the year for stocks because investors are awaiting two very important events – earnings season & the Fed meeting.
Investors have had the long weekend to analyze, digest and stew over the news events and other factors that have been impacting the market.
Stock market action remains skittish and highly reactive to day-to-day news events —truly not the sign of a healthy market.
The Nasdaq making it three in a row, advancing in the last three sessions following that significant pivot on Monday and driving above the 15,000 level.
Three times could be a charm; the Nasdaq has outperformed in the last two sessions relative to the broader market indices.
Growth may have struck a bottom in yesterday’s trading. We saw a number of significant price reversals among high-profile technology and other growth stocks accompanied by higher volume.
As we begin the 2nd trading week of January, there’s some real hopelessness about the outlook for growth generally, but technology more specifically.
The 4th quarter earnings season is approaching and this could be a catalyst for the down trodden growth sectors of the market — especially technology.
Release of the Fed’s Minutes from the December meeting triggered accelerated selling, especially focused on technology which has been under unrelenting selling for weeks.
The bifurcated action from last year’s 4th quarter clearly carrying over to the opening days of 2022 with the growth momentum areas under unrelenting selling pressure.
A good day for the Dow and S&P 500, but an even better day for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 — each of which gained about 1.2%.
With today being the first trading day of the new year, there are many prognostications by analysts of how the year might fair and I’ll throw in my 2 cents as well over the next several days.
As the old saying goes, “All’s well that ends well” and 2021 is ending quite well from a technical standpoint.
The $64 question today is: “How much has the stock market already discounted the Fed’s anticipated action to raise interest rates sooner than expected and taper more aggressively?”
The Fed’s December meeting begins today and there has been much discussion and debate in anticipation of this meeting…
It may be “missioned accomplished” and an “all clear” as the market continues to recover from its recent lows.
The Nasdaq falling yesterday, underperforming other of the major market indices; at face value it looks like a harsh retreat, but it’s really just a reaction following its rally back up to its November peaks as of Wednesday’s closing.
A number of the higher momentum growth stocks have moved back above their 50-day moving average levels; this is encouraging but I think the easy recovered gains have been realized.
The Dow and the other major market indices may be in the initial stages of forming reverse “head and shoulders” patterns.
Statistically, the market retreat appears to be relatively moderate; the Dow has declined just 7% from its all-time highs to its recent intraday lows.
The VIX moving to higher high intraday on Friday and those highs cleared the peaks that we saw earlier in the week last week.
The Dow pivoting from the 34,000 area; that is a level that I’ve mentioned for many months as a longer-term support line — not an exact line, but an approximation.
The Dow is now down 7% from its record-high level set on November 8 to where it finished yesterday at the 34,000 area; that’s an area I’ve been calling the longer-term support area.
Stocks up this morning with the Dow up over 300 points, so that could drive it back into the upper part of that support band of between 34,500 and 34,700.
Some market watchers have been calling for a significant decline for months and even they were likely surprised by Friday’s market route. I’ve been saying that I believe the market is entering a more vulnerable stage.
News of a new COVID-19 variant out of South Africa sending tremors through the markets in the U.S. and internationally.
In yesterday’s update, I mentioned that early December could bring some volatility and correction to the market, but it looks like that might be starting early, helped by concerns about rising interest rates.
It would seem with the re-nomination of Fed Chair Powell to another term that growth has been dealt a serious blow.
This summer we were hearing calls for a 10–20% decline in the market, but it seems the timeliness of those calls has since passed. I think December could be a vulnerable period for the market, because…
I’ve revised my ultimate Dow target to 45,000 for this bull market cycle. This revision was based on a number of factors…
The book, “Dow 36,000,” was published at an untimely point in September 1999, just months before the infamous tech bubble and the dawn of a bear market that would continue until early 2003.
The Dow moving above the 36,000 level and breaking into uncharted territory. My revision for Dow’s ultimate target is now 40,000.
Biotechnology one of the better performing sectors in yesterday’s trading. I think there’s a couple of reasons for that…
I pulled one of my daily reports from early November 2016 in which I discussed the Dow testing support at the 18,000 level and today I’m discussing the Dow at the 34,500–34,700 level.
The big market stories this morning are Apple and Amazon; each reporting disappointing results after yesterday’s close and each getting punished to some degree this morning.
The stock market performance has been pretty good in identifying which companies and sectors would be most likely to report better-than-anticipated earnings.
As we move into the thick of the 3rd quarter earnings season, I think that a case can be made that the relative strength patterns that we saw in stocks in the 3rd quarter are correlating to some degree with the earnings results & comparisons.
From my technical vantage point, I’m always on the lookout to observe whether a pullback — large or small — has had a positive of negative on the longer-term outlook for the stock market.
The 10-year Treasury recovering sharply from its August lows and now trading near its April peaks.
It has been a solid week as we move through the thick of the earnings season and so far the earnings are delivering for the most part.
The Dow surpassing its previous intraday and record-high levels, closing about 150 points higher in the session; but we’re not seeing much fanfare with the Dow lower this morning.
The stock market continuing to resist decline; yesterday the Dow moving higher and within about 200 points of its all-time record high.
Today marks the 34-year anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. Certainly the technical elements today are far different than what we saw in the days and weeks leading to that crash.
Tomorrow marks the 34-year anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. On the Friday before the crash…
The VIX has retreated below the 17 level, which is approaching its longer-term baseline and that would imply that some of the worst fears have played out.
Strong earnings results among the financials and the major market indices higher this morning.
Financials have regained their longer term leadership stature in the stock market and this year we have seen good relative strength strides in many of the stocks representing this category.
For some months now the stock market has been reflecting a just to normal; not a “new normal” but a more traditional normal – seeing traditional themes outperforming stay-at-home themes.
In last Thursday’s trading the Dow surged above the resistance channel between 34,500 and 34,700, but by the end of the day it did retreat back into the upper part of that range. Seeing some further weakness this morning.
The last 2 trading days have surely been encouraging with respect to price action in a number of stocks, sectors and themes; but to me the most constructive factor has been…
The money flow trend showing improvement in yesterday's trading, specially in technology.
The Dow breaking below 34,000 yesterday but managed to close above that level on a closing basis — a technical victory.
As we approach the 3rd quarter reporting earnings season the question becomes, “Just how much has the market baked in some of the headwinds imposed by…?”
September did prove to be a difficult month just like it has historically proven; perhaps “difficult” is too light a word as it was pretty brutal at times.
Sharp selling pressure in technology yesterday is carrying over into today. I think what we’re seeing here is reminiscent in earlier this year when the momentum growth categories went into an aggressive rotational consolidation.
“30 days half September” which means there are only four trading days remaining in September and the 3rd quarter of 2021. The market is in a bit of a limbo stage.
The trading actions so far this week in the stock market have had similar technical earmarks to other declines in this bull market cycle.
I would categorize yesterday’s action as a “hangover Monday” in which traders are reacting to news from over the weekend, especially the news out of China that acted as a catalyst for the decline.
The VIX breaking out this morning above the 25 level. Friday may have been a clue of what was to come this morning…
I would characterize the stock market’s performance this week as having a moderately negative bias; rallies have been cut short by selling but the selloffs have been met with some buying.
Calls continue for a 10–20% market decline. I believe that wouldn’t be so likely without the occurrence of some kind of event that broadsides the market.
September can be a challenging month — historically the most challenging — for stocks. September’s volatility can bring about a situation where the major market indices mask the underlying market.
Yesterday’s session was a study in contrast between value and growth; that was reflected in part in the fear index which rallied sharply.
Stocks higher this morning, though as we’ve seen in the month of September these gains can fizzle out, but I don’t anticipate that happening today.
Yesterday’s market action was likely pretty typical of what we’ll see this month and into October with expansive trading swings.
The Dow and other major indices seem to be in a slow-drip decline, which can be deceptive and seem innocuous on the surface but underlying there can be quite the volatility – it is September….
Reviewing a cross section of charts representing a variety of sectors, the market seems a bit tired; not ominous of a major retreat, but an indication they may need to consolidate before they can make more ground.
Just two trading days left in August and we may see a pullback in September – historically the most difficult month for stocks.
This summer the stock market has navigated well through a number of different headline events.
The Russell 2000 – composed of medium and small cap stocks – is lagging behind the broader market and the larger cap indices.
A structurally good day for the market yesterday with the indices and underlying market continuing to perform as well as they have.
The CBOE Volatility Index trading in the 18-area this morning; well off of last week’s highs near 25.
With the stock market in this more vulnerable state technically, daily trading action could continue to be erratic.
The stock market is in consolidation mode. I want to be careful to make that distinction between consolidation and correction.
As we move through the heart of the 2nd quarter earnings season, investors are turning their attention to other factors and events that might have an impact on 3rd quarter earnings results.
With this morning’s rally in the CBOE Volatility Index, we are seeing a breach of that near-term downtrend of descending intraday lows.
As the dog days of summer continue, the stock market is down this morning with losses very uniform across the market; appears to be a gently corrective day.
No triskaidekaphobia (fear of Friday the 13th) for this stock market as it shows great form and resiliency.
The Fed once again signaling that it might be at the end of its highly accommodating monetary policy; market took the news in stride yesterday, appreciating the transparency from the Fed.
West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $67/barrel and could be in for a test of that short-term support around the mid-$60 area.
The market in this cycle is behaving different than I’ve observed in my entire career; extraordinary the leadership and participation across the diverse sectors.
In many ways this has been an unprecedented bull market run; certainly one of the most obvious is the span of time.
Rapid rotation has been a defining characteristic of the stock market this year, and it can at times be confusing and misleading; misleading being the key term here.
Connecting the dots in yesterday’s trading: clearly the coronavirus siren was playing a role with the increasing cases weighing on investors.
Several years ago some market strategists were proclaiming that the “Buy & Hold” strategy was essentially dead, but that has not been proven to be the case.
From time to time I talk about the broad based market; we’re seeing a very balanced behavior among the major market indices this year.
Daily headline news events continue to present distractions for investors and tempering the market.
The feds policy of transparency is very important. It removes uncertainties such as surprise announcements.
Big earnings today after the close with Alphabet and Apple reporting. Dow at an all-time record high ahead of these earnings results.
I would think that even the most casual market observer would be pretty impressed by last week’s market action.
What a difference a week makes; this time last week we were looking at a declines in the market on Friday and bleeding into Monday.
Back-to-back gains in the stock market have driven the Dow and other of the major indices to their respective proving grounds technically.
The CBOE Volatility Index up above by more than 30% in the course of yesterday’s session. Clearly a shakeup of complacency and fear coming back into the market.
Some are calling for the market to retreat some 10-20%, but I feel we’re in order for a more garden-variety retreat of 3-5%.
As 2nd quarter earnings begin to flow in the stock market’s trend seems to be really indecisive and listless, so not a lot of reaction to the earnings so far.
Certainly no research discipline is flawless, but I think when we’re seeing aggressive rotational behavior, I believe the technical analysis can cut through some of that volatility and trading swings.
Yesterday’s market action might have been a disappointment to those who saw the pullback as the market getting “toppy.”
2nd quarter earnings season kicking off this morning with several of the marquee companies reporting their earnings and they’re crushing expectations.
2nd quarter earnings are due to start flowing in this week, and the question may be, “Are the major market indices overbought?”
The market is in another limbo period awaiting a quarterly earnings reporting period. Market is subject to heightened volatility amid investor perceptions about the economy.
The prevailing market condition allows for evaluation and confirmation of the uptrend from both bottom up and top down perspectives. This is extraordinary since this has not been seen in decades.
With the first half of 2021 completed, I think the full story really is presented top-down with very uniform performances.
Solid and nicely balanced performance number for the major market indices. The big story might be that the Nasdaq has overtaken the DJIA year to date.
The big 3 momentum leaders in the market have staged a comeback and then some after a rough start to 2021.
I continue to monitor the market from a bottom-up perspective with some emphasis on whether or not the recent action in the market is distributional, or reflecting underlying buying potential.
Earlier this week I mentioned that there were some calls for a 10-20% decline in the market. In hearing these I always recheck my analysis, but I would argue we’re in an accumulate phase and there is still good underlying buying potential.
Headline events over the last week and the market’s reaction to those events have, to some degree, reshaped my outlook for the remainder of this year; not in a greatly material way, but more subtle tones.
Expanding on a comment I made yesterday: I had observed a growing call for a 10-20% pullback in the stock market by some analysts & economists. I don’t subscribe to that forecast and I doubt we’d have that kind of decline right now.
From the Dow’s recently set all-time highs above 35,000 to where the Doe closed last Friday amounted to about 4.8% – which is just within the boundary of what I describe as a garden-variety retreat.
When it comes to the Fed, words – at times – can speak louder than actions. This has played out over the years when the Fed’s words have reigned in the markets.
The Fed’s announcement on Wednesday that it plans to raise rates in 2023 triggered a scramble among portfolio managers to realign portfolios given the announcement.
In my opinion, one of the better things to come out of the financial crisis was the transparency from the Fed.
Two events for the market to consider or grapple with today: the Fed concludes its 2-day meeting and the summit meeting between Putin & Biden.
With energy coming back into the leadership fold in 2021, “THEM” (Technology, Healthcare, Energy and Manufacturing) is back and doing very well.
Years ago I would refer to the market’s core leadership as “THEM” – Technology, Healthcare, Energy and Manufacturing.
The stock market is a good guide or a good filter for what might be relevant to what is being reported on the financial papers.
A year-to-date score card finds the DJIA up about 13%, beating the S&P 500 by ~100 basis points but trouncing the Nasdaq which is up by ~5.6% YTD.
CBOE Volatility Index had been hovering in a support range at the 16/17 area; not surprising to see it rallying this morning above the 18 level.
June began where May left off; I’m referring to the way in which the market rallies early and then surrenders the lion’s share of its gains by the closing bell.
Today marked the unofficial beginning of the summer session. As of last Friday’s close, the Dow is within about 1,500 points of Doe 36,000 which had been my previous target.
Demographics argue strongly for the healthcare theme. 84,000 Americans are 100 years old or older and in the coming decade about a quarter of the population will be 65 or older.
Yesterday’s trading action was the latest example of a market that is bound by its trading range.
The fear factor is ebbing on Wall Street, at least as depicted in the action in the VIX.
Momentum sectors may be finding their technical groove; a number of stocks representing areas such as consumer discretionary, healthcare and technology seem to be moving back toward their short-term trend lines.
The net money flow is starting to turn more positive for a number of stocks that that had been under pressure.
Market action along the lines of what we saw yesterday, is likely to be more of the norm than the exception over the short term.
Stocks down this morning after yesterday’s session where gains sputtered later in the session. A confluence of factors I think are contributing to today’s weakness…
Inflation is the chatter up and down Wall Street and is becoming more evident in recent weeks; but for the market, inflation started to come back into the picture as early as late 2019.
This bull market cycle has long history of “down and dirty retreats.” Sometimes these declines can be explained and other times…not so much.
The CBOE Volatility Index is retreating to the 21 level this morning, after tapping the 28 level just the other day.
“Sell in May and go away” is playing out in 2021, but I don’t look for a big retreat here – maybe 3-5% using 32,000 as a downside for the Dow.
It’s been some time since we’ve seen the Dow correct to any significant degree, and for that matter, the general market as well. I think a 3-5% pullback is definitely a possibility here.
Whether you look at the market top down or bottom up, it is evident that the traditional cyclicals are continuing to gain ground here from a relative strength standpoint.
Could get some follow through after yesterday’s latest record-high feat for the DJIA, up by more than 300 points despite selling pressure.
If you’ve been on Wall Street for a number of years, you realize you just can’t fight the mood of the market.
A few short years ago the very mention of agriculture would have drawn yawns as it was out of favor and wasn’t performing well, but has more recently is outperforming momentum categories.
The first session of May presented a bit of a mixed picture, but one that might be indicative of what we might see through the month and the summer period.
It has been my contention for years that this bull market cycle wouldn’t end with a whimper, but with a roar. The question is, “When will that roar take place?”
Prior to the start of the 1st quarter earnings season, I had mentioned I was a bit uncertain about how the earnings seasons would go with respect to the way in which investors would receive the results.
The S&P 500 has moved ahead of the Dow in its year-to-date performance, but both up a little more than 11%.
For some weeks now I’ve been talking about the old adage, “Sell in May and go away” that could play out here in the market, especially since I believe we’re overdue for a pullback.
This is a big week for the marquee momentum stocks representing especially technology, but also consumer discretionary and healthcare.
Yesterday’s abrupt intraday pullback was attributable to the Biden administration’s proposed big increase in the capital gains tax.
The Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all posting uniform gains in yesterday’s session, which is in keeping with my forecast at the end of last year that we’d see a balanced gain in the major market indices.
Some years ago a disappointing earnings result in a FAANG stock may have had a broad reaching impact; but not so in the current market condition despite Netflix’s disappointing results after the close yesterday.
Decades ago there was a Wall Street adage, “As goes GM, so goes the market.” In today’s market it’s really hard to point at any one stock or theme that has that kind of impact on the overall market.
Gene Peroni’s Daily Podcast: senior market indices, but I think it’s important to address the underlying market – the individual stocks & sectors.
While awaiting the 1st quarter earnings season I wasn’t so sure just how investors would react given the gains we’d seen in the market.
The Dow breaking into uncharted territory once again, actually coming within less than 100 points of the next millennium level before a constructive pullback.
It’s been my contention over the many years of this bull market cycle that a key technical pillar has been the broad and diverse sector participation.
First quarter earning season begins next week. We will start seeing a flow of earnings coming in and this could be very significant for the market.
I’m not sure just how much rests on the 1st quarter earnings season but I think that in some sectors or among some themes the results and the reactions could be telling about the short-term outlook for momentum stocks.
As we begin the 2nd quarter, I think it might be appropriate to review some of the comments and forecasts I made at the end of last year with regard to how 2021 might shape up.
It’s hard to believe that we’re beginning the 2nd quarter of 2021. An incredible journey for the market already this year.
I want to re-state a comment I made yesterday: I had said that opportunities in the core momentum leadership categories might not surface until later in the 2nd quarter or later, but…
Just 2 sessions left in the 1st quarter of 2021, and the Dow is in the lead by a big margin compared to the NASDAQ.
March has proven to be a tricky month for stocks, especially when monitoring the day-to-day movements and trying to anticipate the market’s general course.
It’s been another week of volatility and I think that translates to reactivity with investors reacting to day-to-day events; market likely in a trading range over the short run going into the earnings season.
Yesterday’s rally failure in the Dow might have been a bit more ominous technically, were it not for the calendar as we’re nearing the end of the 1st quarter.
It was about a year ago that the Dow had fallen about 20% from its highs, for some that meant that the market was in a bearish trend; but it was soon after that the market pivoted and never really looked back.
In the last several sessions we’re seeing the seesaw rotation between cyclicals, financials, and the core momentum areas (consumer discretionary, healthcare and technology).
I think it’s quite constructive that we’ve had a pullback in a number of momentum areas.
As we’re nearing the end of the quarter, we’re seeing some portfolio shuffling in anticipation of 1st quarter earnings season.
New record highs for the Dow and some of the other major indices, but not the big fanfare and not the changeover from optimism to euphoria.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day! What had been aggressive rotation early in the quarter, now seems to be more portfolio shuffling in anticipation of the 1st quarter earnings season.
When it comes to momentum, biotechnology is arguably at the head of the class. It has been a leadership category for some time.
DJIA up 7.10% year to date, that compares to the Nasdaq up just 3.35%. What a change from last year.
Aerospace & Defense and Agriculture are two distinctly different businesses but they both have in common improving relative strength trends.
Sharp reversals that we saw in momentum areas earlier this week may be reinforced by what we’re seeing this morning.
Sizable gains in some of the market’s high-flying groups, including biotechnology and technology; may have marked the end of the freefall in these groups and other momentum areas.
Some market observers are sounding the death knell for growth based on the rigorous, unrelenting selling in some of the momentum categories. I think that’s a bit premature, however.
At the beginning of this year I had forecast that the major market indices would probably track closer to one another, and so far this year that seems to be what is happening.
Earlier last month I had predicted that the Dow might be in for a retest of its January lows due mainly to technical factors – season, cyclical events and so on.
Momentum categories remain under pressure and yesterday’s session pulled down a lot of categories.
For some time now I’ve been mentioning how the traditional cyclicals are showing improving relative strength; I think this is substantive.
I think with recent volatility, we’ve seen a lot of sawtooth behavior among the major market indices, especially the Dow; this might reduce the impact of the cyclical event.
Interesting action in the VIX last week. In Tuesday’s session when the Dow fell sharply almost 400 points and then reversed course, there was very little movement in the CBOE VIX.
Given this week’s heightened volatility, it’s probably worthwhile to refer to the VIX – which at times can reflect complacency, fear or even panic.
A mighty rebound following the prior day’s reversal; this is something that we’ve become accustomed to in this bull market cycle.
Yesterday’s market reversal bolstered support for the Dow at the 31,000 area that represents near-term support.
It was a tale of two markets yesterday: on one hand the momentum was under pressure, while traditional cyclicals and several other categories did relatively well.
As the major market indices vacillate in trading ranges near their all-time highs, I think it best to focus more on the underlying market and where some of the relative strength strides are occurring.
Growth continues to dominate, evident by simply regarding the major market indices year-to-date.
Stock market resiliency is on full display, with major indices perched at all-time record highs.
With most of the S&P 500 companies having reported 4th quarter earnings, I don’t anticipate any changes to the core leadership.
I think a pretty strong case can be made that earnings have played a significant role as a positive catalyst in this 1st quarter.
Regardless of how you look at the stock market, this has been a market that amazes time and time again and rises to the challenge
“It’s always something” when we have these market declines. Wednesday’s decline pushed the VIX up to the 37 level.
The VIX higher this morning breaking away from its base, currently around the 27 level.
As investors sift through earnings results this week, the CBOE VIX is currently holding at or above support, trading around 23 – continues to indicate to me we’re due for a pullback.
Big week for earnings with more than 100 S&P 500 companies reporting this week and a good number of Dow companies as well.
Market lower this morning, but not a surprise as a correction is a bit overdue. Increasing chatter on Wall Street for a pullback.
With it being Inauguration Day, a lot of focus on politics, but I think it’s good to separate emotion from the stock market and decision making.
Despite a short week, it could be an event-filled week with a lot of earnings reports and the inauguration.
The VIX moving up a little bit above the support area between 21 and 22; something to watch here.
As the Dow holds to a relatively narrow range, the VIX continues to hold at its base support in the 21/22 area.
The Russell 2000 powering higher in yesterday’s session; off to a big start in 2021. A few things at play here…
I often speak about how the stock market is defined in the face of headline stories. I came across a 12/16/18 NYT piece speculating the market would crash in 2019.
Dow lower this morning after crossing the 31,000 level last week. Broader market consolidating in an orderly manner.
For many years now I’ve made the case that this bull market cycle began back in late 2002, and I know that’s a controversial stance, but…
So many times in this bull market cycle we’ve been confronted with historical events that have played on investors psyche and emotions.
It certainly is easy to make the case that last year was unconventional in a number of ways and for the market as well.
As we begin the New Year, it’s customary to present outlooks for a year ahead and that means trying to target where the Dow might be by the end of the year.
A flash card review of 2020 shows a pretty angular advance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The stock market's behavior in 2020 has been remarkable since it quickly recovered and made some record highs despite Covid 19.
The Dow Jones Industrial average is up less than 6% year to date against the S&P 500 and Russell 3000.
First day of winter and a bit of a chill in the air on Wall Street with stock features indicating a lower opening reaction due to new strain of Covid.
The consensus about the market's elasticity and it's latest punch into record territory has to do with the stimulus package and investors anticipation that such package will be delivered in short order by Washington law makers.
With just 2 weeks remaining in 2020, the stock market in a holding pattern in a bit of a trading range.
I’m thinking of the “Sell in May and go away” adage and figuring whether that might apply for 2021; I think that there is a possibility…
I’m in the process of revising my ultimate target for the DJIA – which presently stands at 36,000 – from several years ago.
The Russell 2000 rising above the pack, significantly outperforming the Dow, Nasdaq and even S&P 500.
It seems the market just keeps on chipping away at higher levels here in recent sessions.
Gene Peroni Daily Podcast: The stock market might not always be spot on predictive, but I think it generally gives a pretty good lay of the land.
We’re down to the remaining weeks of 2020 and we’re seeing more forecasts about 2021 – which for the most part are optimistic about the stock market and economy.
Could the VIX break into the teens and maybe even test down to its baseline from earlier this year around the 12-13 area?
Unless there’s a dramatic development between now and the end of the year, the DJIA will remain the lagging major market index.
Sometimes trying to decipher the market’s behavior on a day-to-day – if not hour-by-hour – basis can be a frustrating task and not significant in revealing the real opportunities and underlying trends.
The DJIA on track to be the best of the major indices in terms of performance for the month of November – could be the best November since 1987.
Wednesday’s rotational behavior seemed to favor the stay-at-home theme and momentum stocks generally with the Nasdaq gaining.
In late summer/early autumn a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern developed in the Dow Jones Average which bolstered support at the 27,000 level.
Month-to-date the DJIA up about 10.4%, handily beating the Russell 3000, S&P 500 and even the very hot Nasdaq.
Gene Peroni Daily Podcast: In last year’s 4th quarter I began to note the improving relative strength of the materials-related stocks and they continued to improve heading into the coronavirus downturn.
The Dow punching into record territory, but the big news yesterday was the Russell 2000 were the small and midcap stock had good performance.
VIX is down sharply this morning, presumably because we have gotten through election day.
Dow 27,000 is still a viable support level, but I continue to look for a good year-end rally.
The rapid price vacillations that we’ve been seeing over the last week and more seem to be knee-jerk reactions as investors try to get a handle on the incoming administration.
Stay-at-home-theme stocks had a rough day yesterday with prospects of a vaccine on the near-term horizon.
No triskaidekaphobia for this stock market; even Friday the 13th can’t derail this advance which seems to have a great deal of momentum – built on interest rates and earnings.
The feverish rotation continuing yesterday with the Nasdaq rotating into favor with a nice rally in that index.
Could this tumultuous year end on a positive note? It seems that may be the case with news this morning of a vaccine that could be 90% effective against the COVID-19 virus.
The Dow’s multiple failures to move above 30,000 has imposed a bit of a technical wall of resistance at that millennium level – a big level that many are watching.
In its 18-year run, this stock market has been very consistently driven by low interest rates and earnings.
As dawn breaks on election day, stocks are up this morning…could this mean the market expects a clear cut winner?
The CBOE Volatility Index – sometimes dubbed the “Fear Index” – may be running into a technical brick wall at the 40 level.
From its peak on September 2 to its intraday low yesterday, the Dow has fallen about 10% – which qualifies as a correction in some circles.
Yesterday’s violation of the Dow 27,000 support level was concerning, but not a TKO (technical knockout) for stocks
The basing formation in the CBOE Volatility Index gave a clue that we might be in for heightened volatility ahead of the election.
Monday’s session was another example of weekend hangover reaction by investors to the news of the increase in coronavirus cases.
Just 8 days out now from the presidential election with the stock market in a holding pattern and maintaining a “poker face” regarding their trends.
With just a dozen days before the election, the CBOE Volatility Index is in a basing pattern, which is of some concern.
As we begin the 3rd quarter earnings season there is some good technical cushion for the market to fall back on if there’s volatility.
In recent weeks I’ve been mentioning the improving structure of the DJIA from a technical standpoint.
The frontpage of today’s New York Times includes a graph of the S&P 500 from the drop in yesterday’s session after President Trump’s tweet.
Gene Peroni, Jr.’s highly sought after stock market commentary is now available for September 24, 2020. Click on the media player below to hear daily commentary from one of the most respected equity strategists in the industry.
Gene Peroni, Jr.’s highly sought after stock market commentary is now available for September 24, 2020. Click on the media player below to hear daily commentary from one of the most respected equity strategists in the industry.
Gene Peroni, Jr.’s highly sought after stock market commentary is now available for September 24, 2020. Click on the media player below to hear daily commentary from one of the most respected equity strategists in the industry.
Gene Peroni, Jr.’s highly sought after stock market commentary is now available for September 24, 2020. Click on the media player below to hear daily commentary from one of the most respected equity strategists in the industry.
Gene Peroni, Jr.’s highly sought after stock market commentary is now available for September 24, 2020. Click on the media player below to hear daily commentary from one of the most respected equity strategists in the industry.
Dow caught support at the 26,750 area but I’m skeptical that level will ultimately hold.
The Dow making a stand at the 26,750 to 27,000 level, an area I’d mentioned as a support area some weeks ago.
While yesterday’s 400-point reversal wasn’t conclusive, it was encouraging and led by the technology momentum stocks.
This week’s market action could be described in a number of ways, but by day end the Dow was some 400 points above the support level.
Nice rebounds in some of the momentum stocks, especially those representing consumer discretionary and technology, but what continues to catch my attention is…
New economy or old economy, take your pick; but this market has been extraordinary in that it hasn’t been reliant on just one theme.
The Dow holding the line once again on a 2nd test of support at 27,500, a nice bounce on Friday in contrast to some of the broader market indices.