Chain Reaction: Recent Episodes

Foreign Policy Research Instit

A podcast from the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining America’s role on the world stage. Every two weeks we’ll talk to experts about policy relevant news from around the world and why it matters for U.S. foreign policy.

Please note this podcast was named the Middle East Brief prior to 2021.

What prepares a leader for the high-pressure environment of the US government?

In this episode of Shifting Ground, co-hosts Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin sit down with The Hon. John Tien, Distinguished Professor of Practice at Georgia Tech’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs. Drawing on his extensive career spanning the military, the private sector, and high-level government service—including a tenure as Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security—Tien offers unique insights from four different presidential administrations.

The discussion explores:

The Role of the Individual: How presidential leadership, personal networks, and human experience shape strategy at the highest levels of government.
Evolution of Homeland Security: Reflections on how the mission has shifted from domestic concerns in the 90s to foreign counter-terrorism post-9/11, and the current challenges of politicization.
Omnipolicy & Strategy: A deep dive into complex issues like the fentanyl crisis, illustrating how domestic and foreign policy goals are now inextricably linked.
The Future of the Global Order: Perspectives on navigating a new global operating system, marked by transactional diplomacy and the rise of autocracy.

Shifting Ground is the flagship podcast of the Orbis Journal of World Affairs, produced by the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech).

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In this episode of Shifting Ground, Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin are joined by Phil Wasielewski, a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. A veteran of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations and the US Marine Corps, Phil brings a lifetime of experience—from the end of the Soviet era to the frontlines of Afghanistan—to a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of strategy in an unpredictable world. The conversation touches on the role of intelligence in modern warfare, the enduring need for human analysis, as well as reflections on Russia’s war in Ukraine, and lessons learned from Afghanistan.

Related Reading

Russia After Putin - Phil Wasielewski, Foreign Policy Research Institute

Shifting Ground is the flagship podcast of the Orbis Journal of World Affairs, produced by the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech).

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In this episode of Shifting Ground, Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin are joined by Mohammed Soliman, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East. Soliman challenges our traditional geopolitical mental maps, arguing that the term “Middle East” no longer explains the realities of today’s integrated political and economic landscape. Instead, he proposes viewing the region from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean as a single, cohesive space: “West Asia”. We dive deep into his thesis on how American grand strategy must adapt to an era where rigid, Cold War-style alliances are giving way to flexible, interest-based “minilateral” coalitions.

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Welcome back to The Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.

This season we examine how Western European NATO members like Germany are shifting their defense policies, pursuing rearmament, and what lies ahead for the future of European security.

This week we are pleased to feature a conversation with FPRI President Aaron Stein and Roderich Kiesewetter, a Member of the German Bundestag (CDU/CSU) who has held various command and staff positions, including at the EU Council , NATO and the German Ministry of Defense. The two discuss the strategic framework of the recently released German defense policy, key reforms and capabilities, and what strength means in the new European security environment. You can read a transcript of their conversation here.

The third season of the Ties That Bind is generously supported by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung USA.

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In this episode of Shifting Ground, hosts Larry Rubin and Nick Gvosdev are joined by Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, co-founder of CrowdStrike, and author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. Alperovitch discusses the collision of cybersecurity and international affairs, arguing that the cyber “problem” is fundamentally a geopolitical issue driven by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

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Aaron Stein, President of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), talks with James Swartout, VP of Strategy at Ursa Major Technologies, about his career in national security and how his company is revolutionizing aerospace and defense.

Explore more from Behind the Front here.

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Geo-economic and country risk expert Rachel Ziemba joins Nick and Larry to discuss the intersection of government policy and global commerce. This episode explores how sovereign balance sheets and coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.

Related Reading:

Rachel’s portion of the Global Order After Ukraine Symposium here: ⁠Reassessing Sanctions Amid Shifting Global Order: Responding to Experimentation
Read more of Rachel’s insights in her newsletter, Weaponized Economy.

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On this episode of Shifting Ground, Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld, Jr. (ret.) introduces his concept of the “global operating system” (GOS)—which includes the rules-based international order and the global economy—explaining that its foundation of international stability is at risk of catastrophic failure due to geopolitical cycles, political polarization, and the overextension of the prevailing power.

Read Admiral Winnefeld’s essay ⁠The Principle Challenge: Arresting the Decline of the Global Operating System

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Welcome back to the Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.

We often assume our safety is a “government problem,” but guests Admiral Rob Bauer, the former Chair of the NATO Military Committee, and Strategic Communications Advisor Eleonora Russell argue that this mindset is our greatest vulnerability. Drawing from their 2025 book,If You Want Peace, Prepare for War: A Blueprint for Deterrence, they challenge the idea that military strength alone is enough to protect our future.

In this special episode of the Ties That Bind we discuss the core lessons from the book, what a “whole of society” approach really entails, how to effectively rebuild trust and engage citizens and industry, and what the future of the alliance may look like if we start fighting for the “we” in a world of “me.”

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In the inaugural episode of Shifting Ground, the Hon. Stacey Dixon joins Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin to discuss the US government’s challenge of balancing national security interests by restricting sensitive technology exports with the need for American companies to compete globally and influence international technology standards. The conversation highlighted “accelerants” like the democratization of conflict technology and the erosion of public trust due to misinformation, recommending that the government secure critical infrastructure, improve cyber hygiene, and cultivate citizens’ digital literacy to counter the negative, unintended uses of emerging technologies.

Read Stacey’s piece ⁠The World’s Hidden Accelerants: Technology, Trust, and System Fragility

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Welcome back to the Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.

This season, we examine how Western European NATO members like Germany are shifting their defense policies, pursuing rearmament, and what lies ahead for European security.

This week, we are pleased to feature a conversation with FPRI President Aaron Stein and Roland Theis,a Member of the German Bundestag (CDU/CSU) who sits on the Defense and European Affairs Committees. The two discuss shifts in German defense policy, the erosion of transatlantic trust, and a way forward on rebuilding strong US-European ties. You can read a transcript of their conversation here.

The third season of the Ties That Bind is generously supported by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

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Iran is facing massive protests and the regime is facing a significant challenge to its grip on power. The regime has unleashed the military, killing hundreds on the country’s streets. President Trump had threatened air strikes, raising questions about the future of the regime. What is the future of Iran?

Aaron sat down with Saeid Golkar, an Iranian-American political scientist, and UC Foundation associate Professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, and Hamed Behravan, Vice President at DT Institute and Director of the Iran program.

This episode is part of a collaboration between the Foreign Policy Research Institute and DT Institute about the future of governance in the Middle East.

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Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.

This week, we go even further north, to Finland, one of the alliance’s newest members. Like the other frontline states we’ve visited this season, Finland shares a turbulent and complicated history with Russia that has long molded its security and foreign policy. But unlike the other frontline states, it was not a member of NATO at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. February 24, 2022, proved to be a lynchpin moment for how Finnish society viewed its security and its future.

In this episode, we’ll hear from two Finnish experts about that moment in time, both culturally and politically, about the process and challenges of Finland’s NATO accession, the country’s strategic role in the Arctic, and what it means for the alliance. We’ll also hear about Finland’s whole-of-society defense model, how the country’s culture has informed its security calculus, and what other allies can learn from the Finnish experience. And we’ll also discuss lessons for Finland’s history for Ukraine.

Featured Guests:

Minna Ålander is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Joel Linnainmäkiis a Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former special advisor to the former Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto.

Listen the previous episode on Latvia here.

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We have spent a lot of time talking about Combat Collaborative Aircraft, or CCA. On this episode, Aaron sat down with Billy Byrne, the Director of Strategy for Defense at Saildrone. The two talked about the future of unmanned naval systems, the lessons learned from Ukraine’s operations in the Black Sea, the challenges of operating in the Indo-Pacific, and the need to have both endurance and to “pack a punch” in naval combat.

Explore more from Behind the Front here.

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Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.

This week, we go back North to the shores of the Baltic Sea for the perspective from Latvia.

In this episode, we’ll hear from three Latvian experts on the evolution of the country’s defense posture, NATO cooperation, and its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We’ll also hear about what’s happening on the domestic front, with the evolution of national and municipal civilian defense programs, Latvia’s infrastructure investments, and how the country’s public sector is thinking about resilience and building trust in a whole-of-society defense approach.

Featured Guests:

Māris Andžānsis the Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga and an associate professor at Rīga Stradiņš University.
Ieva Berzina is a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security and Strategic Studies, National Academy of Defense of the Republic of Latvia, and an associate professor at Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences.
Linda Ozola is a Councilor of the Riga City Council, and former Deputy Mayor of Riga (2020-2025).

Listen to the previous episode Lessons in History and Communications from NATO’s Principal Spokesperson here.

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Welcome back to the Ties That Bind. This week, we are looking further south along NATO’s eastern flank at Romania.

Romania has long advocated for increased NATO and US presence in the Black Sea. Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the importance of the Black Sea and Romania’s role have been reflected in an increased NATO presence and multiple defense and infrastructure investments. The country has been a critical actor in helping the Ukrainian war effort, serving as a logistics and military training hub, and securing Ukrainian grain exports in the first years of the war.

In this episode, we’ll hear from three Romanian experts about the country’s role in NATO and Black Sea security, its defense investments, and plans to address strategic infrastructure challenges that have far-reaching significance for the alliance. We’ll also hear about what’s happening on the domestic front, notably the long-term repercussions of the annulled 2024 presidential election. While public opinion shows high support for NATO, Romania and its neighbors continue to be targeted by long-term Russian influence campaigns, and we’ll hear how these are affecting social attitudes towards NATO and Western institutions.

Featured guests:

Antonia Colibasanu, Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures, FPRI Senior Fellow
Eusebiu Slavitescu, European defense analyst, former Romanian MFA
Alina Bargaoanu, Communications expert, University of Political Studies and Public Administration, Bucharest

Listen to the previous episode on Poland in NATO here.

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In a rapidly evolving world where Washington might not have the same sway it used to, how should the US best position itself? Who are the “schools” or “camps” contesting the direction of foreign policy. In this episode of The Continent, Emma Ashford joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to talk about American grand strategy and her recent book First Among Equals: US Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World.

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Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.

This season, we are looking at NATO from a bit of a different vantage point, specifically that of the frontline states.

How are frontline states investing in and planning for their defense? How are they thinking about their role and contributions in the Alliance and on the world stage? How have their historical experiences shaped how their governments and societies think about defense, countering disinformation, and changing economic realities? And how are they preparing for a potential conflict with Russia?

This week, we are looking at Poland, a country that has completely transformed its military and defense capacity over the last two decades. Periods of transition are not always painless, and we’ll hear what challenges Poland has faced and what opportunities lie ahead as it looks to become a leading voice within the alliance and on the world stage.

Featured guests:

Anna Fotyga, former Polish Foreign Minister, 2006-2007
Tomasz Szatkowski, former Deputy Defense Minister, 2015-2019, and Ambassador to NATO, 2019-2024
Jakub Romaniuk, Programme Director, Foundation Institute for Eastern Studies

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Introducing our new monthly podcast series, Behind the Front, which features conversations with industry experts on challenges and opportunities facing the technology, space, and national security sectors.

This week Aaron Stein sat down with Scott “FUG” Gilloon, who currently serves as the Sector Vice President of Air Force Strategic Development and Capability Assessments at General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. The two talked about General Atomics’ CCA, its origin story, how these aircraft may be used in combat, and what the future of air combat may entail.

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A flurry of back-and-forth diplomacy, a renewed Russian offensive, and a rare outburst of protest in Ukraine. The Kyiv Dispatch with Aaron Schwartzbaum and Fabrice Deprez returns to break down what's actually happening and most importantly, how people on the ground are feeling about it.

For more reporting and stories from Ukraine, be sure to follow Fabrice’s newsletter, Eastern Radar.

Explore more from the Bear Market Brief.

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Are drones the future of war? What lessons can be learned from Ukraine for the Taiwan contingency? To discuss these topics and more, FPRI President Aaron Stein sat down with Lorenz Meier, CEO of Auterion, to discuss drones and the future of war.

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Why does Russia play such an important role in geopolitics? If it's because of 'strength'... what does strength even mean? And why do conceptions of Russia's strength vary so extremely? Seva Gunitsky joins Aaron Schwartzbaum on this week’s Bear Market Brief podcast.

Related Reading

Russia is both weak and strong - that's the problem by Seva Gunitsky

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How might combat collaborative aircraft be used to fight a war in Europe? Or the Indo-Pacific? To discuss these questions, and the latest from the YFQ-44A, President Aaron Stein sat down with Andrew Van Timmeren, the director of air dominance systems at Anduril Industries, about what he and the company are working on.

FPRI’s new project, Behind the Front, analyzes current and future national security challenges with a focus on the Defense Industrial Base, military procurement, lessons learned from ongoing conflicts, and challenges and opportunities in the technology and space sector. Read more here.

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Here on the Bear Market Brief, a lot of what we focus on is, simply put, risk: what might happen, and what might it mean?

On this episode, geoeconomic and country risk expert Rachel Ziemba joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to delve in the discipline of Political Risk: how does one "do" the field?

Bear Market Brief features a weekly newsletter and a monthly podcast that strives to be a resource for specialists, generalists, and anyone with an interest in the post-Soviet space. We provide a platform for analysis, particularly for emerging area experts and academics, and a space for even-handed, fact-based conversations in hopes of improving Russia/Eurasia analysis and coverage.

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Listen to Part 1 here.

In this special two part episode of Chain Reaction, Senior Fellow Rob Lee interviews Yevgeniy Malik, a squad leader in Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade. Malik fought in Mariupol during the beginning of the war and defended the Illich Iron and Steel Works. He spent more than two years in captivity in Russia as a prisoner of war from April 2022 to September 2024.

In Part 2, Yevgeniy details his time in captivity in Russia’s Mordovia prison, the circumstances of his eventual release in a prisoner exchange in September 2024, and reflects on his ordeal and the conflict as a whole.

Please be advised that this episode contains content that may be disturbing to some listeners.

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In this special two-part episode of Chain Reaction, Senior Fellow Rob Lee interviews Yevgeniy Malik, a squad leader in Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade. Malik fought in Mariupol during the beginning of the war and defended the Illich Iron and Steel Works. He spent more than two years in captivity in Russia as a prisoner of war from April 2022 to September 2024.

During this time Malik faced daily beatings and torture. In Part 1, Yevgeniy explains what it was like to be a prisoner of war in Russian prisons, and what the thousands of Ukrainian prisoners of war still face every day.

Please be advised that this episode contains content that may be disturbing to some listeners.

Part 1 - Chapters

Introductions - 2:26
Setting the scene in Mariupol - 5:04
Negotiating surrender - 14:43
Surrender at the bridge - 18:25
Arriving in Sartana - 20:29
Time in Olenivka prison -22:19
Transfer into Russia - 26:37
Time in Ryarsk prison - 30:27
Interrogations - 46:25
A Day in Ryarsk - 56:18

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This week technologist Joel Burke, author of the recently published Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution, joins Indra Ekmanis on the Baltic Ways podcast.

He shares his insights on Estonia’s rise as a leader in e-government, technological exports in a globalized world, and what the US has to learn from Estonia in a moment of disruption.

Baltic Ways is a podcast from the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

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Since November of last year, the small country of Georgia has seen daily protests against its increasingly authoritarian government. For over 150 straight days Georgians have been in the streets demanding that their country return to the path of European integration, and halt what they describe as its slide toward becoming a Russian client state. But the Georgian government has not budged, cracking down on the protests, sometimes with violence, and refusing to consider the protestors’ demand for new elections.

How might this all end, and what does Georgia’s plight mean for the country itself, for Europe, and for the US? To discuss these questions, former senior Georgian government officials Batu Kutelia, Dato Sikharulidze, and Miro Popkhadze join Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.

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In this episode of Report in Short Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with András Tóth-Czifra about his recent report, “The Kremlin’s Balancing Act: The War’s Impact On Regional Power Dynamics.” In the report, Tóth-Czifra explains the shift of government control, highlights instances of pushback, and identifies limitations on the Kremlin's strategy going forward.

The Kremlin's centralization drive has manifested in several ways, including tightening control over regional and municipal political institutions, expanding financial control over regional budgets and policy priorities, nationalizing and indirectly mobilizing business assets, and introducing new priorities in personnel policy.

These changes have created winners and losers, resulting in friction and resistance from regional elites who perceive their interests and autonomy as threatened. The sustainability of the Kremlin's strategy is uncertain, and risks intensifying tensions and worsening government instability.

András Tóth-Czifra is a Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and contributing author for FPRI's Bear Market Brief. You can also read more of his analysis in No Yardstick.

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Persistent reports indicate that the Trump Administration will de-emphasize the US commitment to European security in favor of an emphasis on defending the US homeland and shifting resources to the Indo-Pacific. This follows a long-running critique of America’s European allies for investing too little in their own defense, a critique that predates both Trump Administrations, but one that has gotten louder, especially in the second Trump Administration.

But what is the view in European capitals of the emerging US policy toward Europe, and what might its effects be on Transatlantic relations? To discuss these questions, Dr. Michael Neiberg of the US Army War College, recently returned from a visit to Estonia and Germany, joins Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.

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Ukrainians have resisted Russia’s aggression for years. Since the full-scale invasion of their country in 2022, Ukrainian women in particular have taken on important roles on the frontlines, in civil society, and at home.

Gražina Bielousova’s research examines how Ukrainian leftist feminists advocate for their causes at home and abroad, facing distinct challenges as they attempt to defend their country. The Ukrainian case is also distinct from Latvia and Lithuania, whose organizing takes on different shapes for the same cause. Bielousova joins Ben Gardner-Gill to explain these interactions and discuss the ongoing process of decolonization in Baltic Studies.

Transcript

Ben Gardner-Gill: Hello, and welcome to Baltic Ways. I'm your co-host, Ben Gardner-Gill. Today we're talking with Gražina Belousova. Gražina is a feminist scholar of race, religion, and gender in post-Soviet Europe. She earned her PhD from Duke University in 2022. Currently, she is a postdoctoral scholar at Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Science and a researcher at Vytautas Magnus University.

Her current research project focuses on leftist feminisms in East Europe in light of Russia's war against Ukraine, which will culminate in her first book, What's Left of Feminism in East Europe.

Gražina, welcome to Baltic Ways.

Gražina Belousova: Thank you so much for having me, Ben.

BGG: So let's kick off by just hearing a little bit more about your background. I know you finished your PhD pretty recently. Could you tell us a little bit more about how you got into academia, sort of your research interests, and what you're working on at the moment?

GB: Right. Yes, I just defended my PhD in 2022. It's hard to believe that it's been nearly three years now. In my PhD, I focused on historical matters. My PhD was in religion and cultural anthropology. And one of the things that I found missing when I was trying to theorize the part of the world that I call home and that most of the world calls Eastern Europe—I realized that I was lacking a solid theory that would bridge economics, anthropology, and religious studies.

I wanted to understand how religious difference, especially perceived religious difference, played a role in creating the space that we call Eastern Europe today. And that took me to 18th and 19th century travel writings by Western travelers, oftentimes who were on an official mission, to the edges or to the depths of the Russian Empire.

So I've read a lot of ambassadors’ letters. I've read a lot of dispatches from St. Petersburg and Moscow, trying to understand how Westerners thought about that religious difference and how that thinking structured their understanding of what this place was and why it was different. What I tried to argue is actually that perceived religious difference was at the root of thinking of Eastern Europe as something different.

Now, when I chose to embark on that topic, I had to put another topic aside, which was the question of very contemporary matters, the question of leftist political thought and feminism. At that point, it felt to me more pertinent to write the kind of theory that I felt was missing. When I was given the opportunity to pursue a postdoctoral position at Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science, I pitched this idea to them.

And we very quickly pulled together the application. And the next thing I knew, I was embarking on a project on leftist feminisms in Eastern Europe in light of the war in Ukraine. So, the path was windy, but here I am today, knees and elbows deep, in the project on leftist feminism.

BGG: Wonderful. I mean, a windy path is going to be familiar to so many people listening.

So, no surprise and no surprise as well that the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has really impacted your work and your life as it has for many of us. So tell us a little bit more about that.

Over the last three years, we've been watching and seeing the horrors in Ukraine. From your perspective, from your academic work, what are some of the main things that you're looking at?

GB: One of the things that I'm particularly interested in is the way that groups that are on the edges of society, on the margins of society, such as leftists, such as feminists, and especially leftist feminists—when the two come together and try to articulate their social and political vision and explain to themselves and to their fellow compatriots and oftentimes foreign donors, in my case, also Western leftist feminists, their relevance, how they're trying to articulate their position.

War has a penchant for heightening nationalist tendencies. And this is not some kind of particular Eastern European pathology. War anywhere is going to produce these results. That is normal. People defend themselves and articulate themselves on the basis on which they're being attacked, on the basis on which they're being bombed.

So this is what we are seeing in Ukraine. Leftism in Eastern Europe, because of the Soviet past, is often associated with Soviet nostalgia. Feminism, on the other hand, is oftentimes seen as something antithetical to national identity, something that is imported from the West, and something that either has no relevance or can be dangerous, especially when questions of national unity, questions of national defense come about.

That is one of the reasons why I embarked on this journey, and this is one of the reasons why Ukraine had to be part of this picture. Because while the other countries that I'm looking at—Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Moldova—experience the threat of invasion, Ukraine is under attack.

And one of the things that I'm finding is that Ukrainian leftist feminists are incredibly resourceful and incredibly gifted at articulating their relevance.

One of the things that I'm going to say that stems from that understanding of leftist feminism that's erroneous, but that's pervasive, is that Ukrainian leftist feminists do not debate the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state. What is in question is the way things are happening under the conditions of war.

The questions of most vulnerable people—so questions of what happens with people with disabilities, questions of what happens to single mothers, questions of what happens to the elderly people who are maybe unable to evacuate, questions of what happens to the working class people—all of these things are at the forefront of their minds. They're trying to be the advocates of their pleas to the larger society, while at the same time trying to articulate Ukraine's right to self-defense to Western leftist feminists.

BGG: So they have both this tension, maybe tension is the wrong word, tell me if it isn't, but they have this tension internally where they're trying to advocate for what they see as justice or what is right with a domestic audience who, understandably, may be more frequently focused on what's happening at the front lines.

And then there's also this international question, the foreign audience for these Ukrainian leftist feminists, who have a very different perspective on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And I specifically use that verbiage instead of Russia's invasion of Ukraine because they're going to think about it very differently.

So let's split those out a little bit, and I want to start with the domestic. You talked about the advocacy of these leftist feminists for the most marginalized groups in society, for those who are most vulnerable.

In your view, where have they been most successful, perhaps? Where have they seen actual progress happen from their advocacy?

GB: One of the things that immediately comes to mind, and many of my interlocutors were directly involved with, is the nurses’ movement–the unionization and self-organization of the nurses.

There is a movement called Be Like Nina, referring to one of the nurses seen as a pioneer of resisting exploitation. And, of course, under the conditions of war, the labor of nurses is incredibly valuable and needed, but not always appropriately compensated. This is what we can call essential labor, especially when we talk about the front lines, where people are wounded.

Many of them are wounded very badly on a daily basis. However, there are other things that are happening in the background as well. While a lot of the resources are pulled to the front, there are people who are experiencing regular daily struggles with their health. And the nurses are being stretched very thin.

And this was something that was really amazing to me. This was really one of the very few instances where I saw academics who are leftist feminists actually touching the ground with their ideas: where they got involved with helping the nurses organize, but not taking the center stage, where they acted as support, as a resource, but not overtaking the movement, rather creating the conditions under which nurses themselves could articulate what it was that they needed, what their goals were.

And that was incredibly impressive to me because healthcare is severely underfunded across the whole region, and to achieve such tangible goals as wage increases and regulations that empower nurses to do their job was truly impressive. With every conversation with a woman—because I specifically talk only to women—I just felt sheer amazement, because this is so contrary to so many imaginations of what civil society, self-organization, or networks are like in Eastern Europe.

This is so contrary to what some have called ‘uncivil’ society. What is happening is really self-organization and civil society at its best, organized by women who are oftentimes stretched very thin, not just at work, but also at home, women whose husbands are potentially on the front lines.

So to me, I really cannot think of anything else that, in terms of real life impact and in terms of transforming people's lives, has been grander (I'm going to go for that word) than this.

BGG: That's remarkable, and thank you for bringing that. I had very little idea of this progress and this happening.

So you use the term civil society, which I think is quite apt, and Western conceptions of civil society in the region that we call Eastern Europe can be highly misguided. Let's just put it like that. I think back to a webinar that the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS) hosted on Ukrainian civil society, democratization, responses to the war, and we have this comparative Ukrainian and Baltic perspective, where we looked at how Ukrainian civil society was responding.

We looked at how Baltic civil society was responding, and you're doing something similar in your research here. You're looking at Latvia and Lithuania as two of the other case studies, in addition to Poland, Moldova, and, of course, Ukraine. One thing that I think we can all observe just from watching the news, let alone being in the countries as well, is that civil society across the region has had this really robust response in the last few years.

So could you speak a little bit more to that in the comparative cases outside of Ukraine that you're looking at in your research, especially Latvia and Lithuania?

GB: For sure. I think that in order to theorize civil society and the region in general, we need better theory than has been used often to talk about civil society at large.

Here, for example, I'm thinking about Emily Channel Justice and her work and the way that she articulates the notion of self-organization. The way that she thinks about Ukraine, especially in the context of Maidan. The way that it left a self-organization, but that can be applied also to any form of civil society, regardless of ideology, is really a network of decentralized, self-organized people's groups.

If you were to look for some kind of central organizing pattern, or some kind of centralized way of doing things, most likely you're not going to find it because it's based on personal network, connections, and localized issues. And I think that's definitely something that I'm seeing in Ukraine.

One of the things that I'm seeing in Lithuania and Latvia is that it's going to differ slightly because there are going to be more central organizing figures. If we talk about organizing support for Ukraine, one of the things that we're going to see is that people are going to point to nationwide initiatives.

Right now in Lithuania, there is an initiative called Radarum, which is a play on words, on radar and on darom, which is a Lithuanian word for let's do it. And it's a nationwide initiative to collect funds to purchase drones and anti-drone equipment for Ukraine. And there are particular faces that we associate with this initiative.

National television is running ads for it. So there's a little bit more of a centralized sense to it. But once again, I would say that this is the mainstream way of organizing civil society, which, of course, with Westernization, has taken on some of the patterns that are similar to the West.

If we look towards the left, we're going to see very much that it is self-organized, small groups of people who take different initiatives, such as raising funds for medical care, such as raising funds for queer people in Ukraine. So the more mainstream we go, the more patterns that are akin to those that we see in the West we're going to see.

That is also going to be true in Latvia. The further left we go, the more organic, grassroots, self-organized cells of people we're going to find who participate in smaller, less visible initiatives. So that's probably the best way that I can explain the difference.

BGG: Got it. We see this distinction of centralization and decentralization.

One could consider these different types of movements organic in their own ways, but different in different ways. When one thinks of leftist organizing, which has a long and rich history, organic is sort of one of the key words.

It's perpetual, and these society-wide initiatives, like what's currently going on in Lithuania, that we've seen across other countries over the last few years, are maybe a little bit less frequent and less common. So there's an important distinction there.

So I want to pivot to the international dimension of how the Ukrainian leftist feminists are talking, especially with Western counterparts. And by Western, we mean Western Europe. We mean American and Canadian. We mean Western, as in not Eastern Europe. So could you talk a little bit about the challenges they're facing there?

I think I alluded to it earlier. You alluded to it earlier, but could you dive a little bit more into that discourse, that dialogue between the Ukrainians and their counterparts?

GB: This is the main point of contention. What does it mean to be leftist? How much does local experience shape being leftist?

What is the relationship of the left to the national question? And I think this is where we are seeing the real tension. Underlying this tension, of course, is the question of Russia. Let me try to unpack this. And I'm going to start from the other end than I listed, which is with the question of Russia.

Eastern European in general, and Ukrainian in particular, leftist feminists have a very different understanding as to what Russia is in terms of geopolitics than the Western counterparts are going to have. This stems from very different histories. Western leftism—especially the new wave of leftism that arose in the sixties and the seventies—in many ways has redefined itself not just through the questions of class, which I would argue were lost to some extent. They lost their centrality.

And they redefined themselves through the anti-colonial, anti-racist struggle. And that struggle was particularly important because after the fall of the formal colonial system, the colonial patterns of economic exploitation, of social exploitation, of brain drain still very much persisted. And naming that and defining themselves against Western neoimperialism or neocolonialism in the Global South was one of the most defining features of the Left, both in the Global South and in the West. Now, Russia at that time had positioned itself as the ally of the colonized countries. And some of it was pure show, and some of it was actual money, resources, and help that were sent, for example, to Angola. And that made a real difference. Whether that was genuine concern for the colonized people or whether that was an ideological tool is a matter of debate.

Whatever it was, it had a profound impact on the way that Western leftists relate to Russia. They continue to see Russia out of that tradition, in many ways, as an ally against Western capitalism and imperialism. Their empire, against which they define themselves, continues to be in the West, and oftentimes is seen as centered on the United States.

The empire against which we define ourselves in Eastern Europe is Russia, because Russia was the colonizing power in a very real sense in the region. It was our empire that subjugated us. It was the colonial power that engaged in just about every single practice in which any colonial power engages in the region.

For us, if we think outside of ourselves, Russia continues to be the colonial power in the way that it relates to Central Asia, in the way that it relates to the indigenous people of Siberia, in the way that it continues to conduct business. So both the left in the West and the left in the East continue to define themselves against the empire, but disagree on who the empire is.

The fundamental difference is the question of Russia. Because of the way that Western leftists, and particularly Western leftist feminists, have been taught to see the world, the way that they have been habituated to see the world, they're unable to see Russia as an aggressor. They're unable to change their narrative about how NATO might act.

And of course, the criticisms of continued Western abuses of power, especially when they center on the United States—such as Afghanistan or such as Iraq, but also here in the European context, intra-European context, Serbia is another context in which that comes up—are highly debatable questions, but they're seen a certain way. They're understood in a certain way by Western leftists. And because of Russia's criticism of the West, Western leftists see it as a natural ally, or at least as an equally guilty party.

BGG: That's a really great explanation. I think the way that you've laid that out makes a lot of sense.

It also harkens back to where I want to bring this, which is the debate that has been going on in Baltic studies and other academic fields, especially those focusing on the region, about thinking about Baltic history in particular as a colonial history and thinking about what it means to decolonize Baltic studies as a field, to decolonize our academic thinking. There have been a lot of discussions.

I know that we were in the same room at the AABS panel at Yale last year on that fantastic panel about decolonization. Where do you think this leads with regard to your research specifically? There's already this trend in this field. I get the sense that you are an advocate and moving forward in land seeking for the field as a whole to move in that direction.

What do you think the next steps are? What paths do you think could be taken? What do people need to be thinking about that they may not already be thinking about?

GB: Well, I think for me, the key question when we are talking about Baltic studies and decolonization is what is it that we talk about when we talk about decolonizing Baltic studies or Baltic countries?

Because I think sometimes we're talking about four different things. We are talking about the question of colonialism and coloniality. That's one. We are talking about imperialism, Russian imperialism, and Russian imperiality. We are talking about Russification and what it means to de-Russify. And we are also talking about Sovietization and what it means to de-Sovietize.

And I would argue that while these four concepts are very much interrelated, they have very different agendas. So, I think it's a question of definitions. How do we define what our agenda is? Which of the four do we have in mind when we talk about decolonizing Baltic countries, Baltic studies, or anything else?

And I would say that each of the four has its place and is significant. But the flip side of that, especially if we stay with the question of decolonization, is the question of Western theory, practice, and scholarship as it relates to Baltic studies. Because if we go back to the early questions in the conversation of what is civil society and whether there is a civil society, Baltic countries and the region as a whole are pathologized.

Because the concept of what civil society is, or is not, was based on Western understandings and Western practices. And it rendered civil society in the region invisible. In what ways does the production of scholarship and knowledge about the region continue to be based in very unequal power relationships, in such a way that it continues to pathologize the region?

And these are very uncomfortable questions, because much like, you know, in the late eighteenth century when the Lithuanian Polish Commonwealth was divided between the three powers, we're facing the same question: Who is our ally? Because we have learned that Russia is definitely not, but the West is also a problematic ally.

This is where I think the question of what it means to center the study of the region in the theory, in the practice, in the questions that actually originate from the ground up, are so important. And I'm not ditching all Western scholarship out the window. That would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

But I'm saying, what does it mean to balance? What does it mean to center? What does it mean to change the parameters of the conversation?

BGG: Those are some weighty questions. I think they're good questions that the field is, I would say not even starting to engage with, but is engaging with, which is really excellent, but it's a long path.

As anyone who is a scholar of decolonization will tell you, it doesn't happen overnight. It doesn't happen over a decade. It's sort of a continuous process. So, I think that is where we're going to have to leave it, knowing that there is so much more we could have talked about. But, Gražina, thank you so much.

This has been a fascinating conversation. Thank you for joining Baltic Ways.

GB: Thank you so much for having me, Ben. It's been a privilege.

BGG: Thank you for listening to this episode of Baltic Ways, a co-production of the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies and the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). A note that the views expressed in this and every Baltic Ways episode do not necessarily reflect those of AABS or FPRI.

To ensure you catch the next episode of Baltic Ways, make sure you're subscribed to your podcast feed or wherever you get your shows. Thanks so much, and we'll see you next time.

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On November 1 2024, the roof of a newly €55 million renovated railway station in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second biggest city, collapsed and killed 16 people. The deaths sparked Serbia’s largest wave of student-led anti-government protests since Yugoslavia’s disintegration in 2000.Mid-March protests in Serbia saw roughly one in twenty Serbians participate.

This week Mladen Mrdalj joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore how the tragedy in Novi Sad sparked a mass movement, and why it spells potential trouble for Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.

Explore previous episodes of The Continent series.

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The Trump Administration has thrown global financial markets into chaos with its massive but on-again, off-again tariffs against America's trading partners, both large and small. The White House has at times framed the tariffs as a revenue generation scheme, at other times framed them as an attempt to return manufacturing to the US, and at still other times has said they are an attempt to gain concessions from other countries on non-economic issues.

What are the goals of the tariffs, how has the administration calculated them, and what are their likely effects on global finance and trade? To answer these questions and others,Dr. Mark Duckenfield, Professor of International Economics at the US Army War College, joins host Bob Hamiltonon Chain Reaction.

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This week on Chain Reaction, we feature an installment of theBaltic Ways podcast. Host Indra Ekmanis welcomes back professors Margarita Šešelgytė (Vilnius University), Daunis Auers (University of Latvia), and Andres Kasekamp (University of Toronto) for a roundtable discussion on the first two months of Donald Trump’s second term and the US administration’s impact on the Baltic countries and broader Europe. This episode was recorded on March 14, 2025.

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Baltic Ways is a podcast from the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

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The two weeks after Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky’s Oval Office clash have precipitated drastic shifts in transatlantic relations and the potential trajectory of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Now a possible ceasefire is on the horizon.

This week on the Bear Market Brief podcast, host Aaron Schwartzbaum and Maximilian Hess make sense of the Oval Office blow-up, discuss President Trump’s strategic aims, Russia’s goals, Europe’s response, the US-Ukraine minerals deal, and what might come next with Russia sanctions.

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For more about economic warfare in the 21st century, be sure to check out Max’s newsletter, Conflict and Credit.

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Although NATO has survived - and even thrived - for over 75 years, its future looks more uncertain now than at perhaps any other time. The Alliance confronts not only a resurgent Russia, but serious questions over the US commitment to European security and the ability of European Allies to fill the gap a US withdrawal from Europe would leave.

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This episode was recorded on February 28, 2025.

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While the military situation in Ukraine continues apace, with grinding Russian assaults gaining ground daily, but at a reduced pace and increasing rate of casualties, the diplomatic situation is changing rapidly. A flurry of US diplomatic activity aimed at ending the war has unnerved Ukrainians and America's allies, who fear the US is preparing to cut a deal with Russia over their heads.

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For more military analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine check out Konrad’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor.

This episode was recorded on February 20, 2025.

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Sometimes lost among analysis of Russian malign actions around the world - from invasions of its neighbors, to sowing chaos in democratic societies, manipulating democratic elections, and weaponizing corruption - is analysis of why Russia does what it does. In other words, what is it about the Russian model of how the world works that causes it to engage in these types of activities, and what narrative justification does it advance?

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In this episode of Report in Short, Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Lieutenant Colonel Denys Yurchenko, about his recent FPRI report “Russian Strategic Culture and the War in Ukraine."

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This week on The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond:

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Read Stephen’s latest piece for Foreign Affairshere.

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Rick Landgraf sits down with Representative Brendan Boyle (PA-02) to discuss the Congressman's role in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly's political committee, future challenges facing the alliance, and the relevance of NATO on a local level.

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Ben Gardner-Gill sits down with Lithuanian political scientist Andžej Pukšto to talk about the results of the 2024 European elections, with a focus on two Baltic members of the European Commission: Kaja Kallas of Estonia and Andrius Kubilius of Lithuania. Both former prime ministers, Kallas and Kubilius have unique challenges ahead of them as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. Kallas will lead EU foreign policy, and Kubilius will be the first-ever EU Commissioner for Defense and Space. Pukšto shines a light on what they’ll prioritize, what advantages they have entering their new jobs, and how they might overcome the roadblocks ahead.

Baltic Ways is brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS), produced in partnership with the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official position of AABS or FPRI.

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Between a Russian offensive and the reelection of Donald Trump, the war in Ukraine hangs in the balance. Janis Kluge joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore how we got here and what might happen next.

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In this episode we explore the history and evolution of NATO’s relationships with its Indo-Pacific partners, the alliance’s role in the growing US-China rivalry, and look ahead to a new era of NATO engagement outside of the Atlantic in a time of increasingly interconnected global conflicts. Featured guests:
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This week on The Continent: FPRI's Eurasia Program Director Maia Otarashvili joins Aaron to talk through recent parliamentary election results in Georgia and delve into an interesting question: how does a broadly pro-EU, Russia-skeptical country wind up with a euroskeptic, Russia-friendly government?

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This week on Baltic Ways - The US election is approaching quickly with implications for America's allies in the world. Professors Margarita Šešelgyte (Vilnius University), Daunis Auers (University of Latvia), and Andres Kasekamp (University of Toronto) join a roundtable discussion on the impact that a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency could have on the security and future outlook of the Baltic countries and broader European, and how people in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are feeling about the state of democracy in the US. This episode was recorded on September 25, 2024.

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Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

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Located only 30 km from the border with Russia, the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv was the object of another Russian offensive earlier this year. Although Ukrainian forces stopped Russia's drive to capture the city, Kharkiv still endures daily attacks from Russian glide bombs, drones and missiles. Although Ukraine has the capability to strike back at the aircraft and airfields supporting these attacks, it lacks permission to use Western weapons to do so. Join Bob Hamilton as he interviews Kharkiv resident and FPRI Senior Fellow Maria Avdeeva about how her city is enduring these daily attacks and how Ukraine would strike back if given permission.

Read Maria's recent analysis on why Ukraine should be allowed to strike back here.

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Kyiv-based journalist Fabrice Deprez returns to the brief for another update on the mood in Ukraine, including a report on his recent trip to the front line city of Pokrovsk.

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Aro Velmet is an associate professor of history at the University of Southern California, where he is a historian of modern Europe, colonialism, science, technology, and medicine with an overarching interest in gender studies. For Baltic Ways, he shares insights into the progression of LGBTQ+ rights in Estonia and the broader region and the path that has led to legislative change over the past decade.

Mentioned in this episode:

Velmet, A. (2019). Sovereignty after Gender Trouble: Language, Reproduction, and Supranationalism in Estonia, 1980–2017. Journal of the History of Ideas 80(3), 455-478.

Põldsam, Rebeka, et al. Kalevi Alt Välja: LGBT+ Inimeste Lugusid 19. Ja 20. Sajandi Eestist. Eesti LGBT Ühing : Rahva Raamat, 2023.

Elisarion: Elisàr von Kupffer and Jaanus Samma at the Kumu Art Museum in Tallinn Irina Roldugina, UCIS Postdoctoral Fellow, History, Slavic Languages and Literature

Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS), produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

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The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond is a five part series examining the past, present, and future of NATO.

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Introducing a new limited series: The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond

Maintaining political cohesion on the issue of continuing the flow of Western military aid to Ukraine is a pressing concern for NATO and will be at the top of the agenda when the heads of state and government of the 32 allies meet in Washington, DC from July 9th to 11th. While support for Ukraine will likely remain stable in the short-term, what lies ahead is less certain.

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As US assistance to Ukraine resumes after a long delay, Russian forces are making gains in northeastern Ukraine, and may be poised to expand their offensive push this summer. Will the resumption of US aid allow Ukraine to blunt this offensive, what is the likely trajectory of the war, and what does it mean to the US? To discuss these questions, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commander of US Army forces in Europe, joins Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.

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Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

Explore more from the Baltic Intiative here.

In the early 1990s, Kyrgyzstan was often referred to as an “island of democracy” in Central Asia. Three distinguishing features of Kyrgyzstan include an active political opposition, a vibrant civil society, and independent media outlets.The current government is eliminating all three of those distinctions.

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The death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi this past weekend has prompted questions about the future of the Islamic Republic, the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iranian domestic politics, and succession race for Supreme Leader Khamenei. Afshon Ostovar, a FPRI Senior Fellow, joined FPRI President Aaron Stein to discuss the latest developments in Iran.

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This year, NATO marks its 75th anniversary, while the Baltic countries celebrate 20 years as members of the alliance. Dr. Lukas Milevski speaks about the history of that inclusion, and shares his thoughts about the future. Milevski is a tenured assistant professor at Leiden University, where he teaches strategic studies in the BA International Studies and MA International Relations programs. He has published widely on strategy, including two books with Oxford University Press: The Evolution of Modern Grand Strategic Thought (2016) and The West’s East: Contemporary Baltic Defense in Strategic Perspective (2018).

For more from the world of Baltic studies visit us on Substack.

Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

The Bear Market Brief goes nuclear! Andrey Baklitskiy dropped by to discuss all of Russia's strategic red lines, what the introduction of hypersonic weapons means for global security, and more.

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Russia’s war against Ukraine has revealed stories about the heroic resistance efforts of Ukrainian women: from a grandmother launching a pickle jar against a drone to volunteers with territorial defense units. However, comparable stories have been entirely lacking on Russia’s side: How come?

On this episode of Report in Short, Aaron Schwartzbaum is joined by Egle E. Murauskaite, author FPRI's new report "Russian Women in the Face of War Against Ukraine," to discuss the multifaceted role of Russian women in the conflict.

Read the report here

In this episode of Baltic Ways Dr. Janet Laidla shares her work on charting the roles and contributions of women at the University of Tartu from the early days of the Estonian Republic, and what it means today.

Explore from FPRI's Baltic Intiative here.

If we know how Russia's presidential election is going to turn out... why even bother holding the election? Join András Tóth-Czifra and Olga Khvostunova for an exploration of electoral autocracy and the political moment.

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Amid the commentary on the war in Ukraine, the voices of those who live it every day are sometimes lost. In this episode of Chain Reaction, we hear from Sophia Opatska of Lviv, Hanna Shelest of Odessa, and Maksym Skrypchenko of Kyiv.

Despite Western economic policy, Russia has been able to continue its war against Ukraine, and even seen economic growth. Join as we kick off our season with Nick Trickett and Iikka Korhonen investigating what's driving Russia's economy these days, and whether sanctions are "working."

As the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the optimism that reigned a year ago has largely faded. The failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive and the uncertainty of future US assistance seem to augur tough times ahead for Ukraine and its supporters. Joining host Bob Hamilton to discuss the current state of the war, its likely future trajectory, and the future of the US role in NATO is Stephen Biddle, one of the foremost analysts of modern warfare.

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani forces initiated a massive attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated and effectively self-governing region inside internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory. Within 24 hours, the Nagorno-Karabakh leadership gave in, and, for the first time, Baku could claim full control over the contested territory. Despite being portrayed in the West as a “frozen conflict,” there had long been a risk of renewed violence in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this episode of Report in Short, Walter Landgraf and Nareg Seferian join Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss their recent report "A 'Frozen Conflict' Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and Future Implications.

Read the report

From the "Great Game" of the 19th century to the NATO war in Afghanistan, Central Asia has periodically been at the center of geopolitics. But more often, it has faded into the geopolitical shadows, as other regions and other issues take precedence. The two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine have seen the region again become a focal point of great power interaction, with Russia's influence falling as that of China, Turkey, and other powers rises. But Central Asia is more than just a playground for great powers - the countries of the region are increasingly asserting their own geopolitical identities and interests. Join host Bob Hamilton and experienced Central Asia hand Bruce Pannier as they discuss the region's re-emergence and its implications.

Since 2009, Russia has invested significant effort into developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, for military purposes. However, after a year of war in Ukraine, the Russian military has lost the biggest part of its tactical reconnaissance and targeting UAVs. Pavel Luzin joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss his latest report "Russian Military Drones: The Past, Present, and Future of the UAV Industry."

Download the report here.

Almost two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Bear Market Brief investigates how we got here in the first place. What does theory say about Vladimir Putin’s decision making? Seva Gunitsky joins to discuss.

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It’s been just over five months since the Wagner Group’s insurrection against the Russian government, and three months since the group’s leader was killed in a place crash, almost certainly orchestrated by the Kremlin. But the Wagner Group has not faded away. Colin Clarke, *Christopher Faulkner, and Raphael Parens join to discuss what the Wagner Group is up to now, who is leading it, and how the Kremlin will use it going forward.

*The views expressed here are the guest's own and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of the US Naval War College, the Navy, or the DOD.

The Continent takes a (slight) detour to learn how trends over in Eurasia compare with what we're seeing in Europe. The complicated neighbor is the same; what about the domestic and geopolitical landscape? Temur Umarov offers insights on the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Kazakhstan's domestic and foreign policy.

Where does Russian public sentiment on politics and war stand these days? And on a more basic level, how is it measured? Bear Market Brief talked with Isabelle DeSisto of Russia Watcher to learn more!

Join the Bear Market Brief on Substack!

Learn more about Russia Watcher here

On this week's special episode of the Bear Market Brief, Aaron Schwartzbaum sits down with FPRI Fellow Maximilian Hess to talk about his new book "Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict Between Russia and the West" (Hurst, 2023).

This episode was recorded live on September 28, 2023.

For more on the international economic order and the conflicts shaping it, check out Max's newsletter, Conflict & Credit.

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In a career spanning from the height of the Cold War to the fight against Al Qaida, Michael Vickers worked at every level of the US national security community. From his time as an Army Green Beret trained to parachute behind Soviet lines in Europe with a “backpack” nuclear weapon, to his final assignment as the senior official responsible for all Department of Defense intelligence activities, few people have accumulated as much experience. Join host Bob Hamilton as he talks with Dr. Vickers about his career and the lessons he draws for today’s national security practitioners.

By All Means: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy by Michael G. Vickers

Politically and socially, how are Ukrainians contending with a difficult, long war? Fabrice Deprez joins from Kyiv to give us an update on this week's Bear Market Brief.

Check out Fabrice's newsletter, Eastern Radar
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How much do Moldovan politics rhyme with some of what we've seen in Ukraine? FPRI Senior Fellow Ecaterina Locoman sheds light on language politics, Ukraine war spillover, and frozen conflict.

How do we remember tragedies? How do populations construct memories and memory institutions around these events? How can contemporary researchers begin to make sense of these complex landscapes? On this episode of Baltic Ways, Dr. Margaret Comer of University College London joins us to discuss heritage studies, dark heritage, and her fieldwork in Russia and Estonia.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 put the Black Sea region on the map in Washington, DC and Brussels after decades of relative neglect. Among regional countries Romania was an early, vocal and persistent proponent of greater US and NATO focus on the region and has emerged as a leader in the drive for greater regional integration and cooperation. To discuss Bucharest’s role in the region and its vision for regional security, Dr. Antonia Colibasanu joins host Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.

Two years ago this month, Taliban forces rolled into Kabul, completing their takeover of Afghanistan. After 20 years of U.S.-led effort and investment in the Afghan government and security forces, they collapsed almost instantly in the face of an enemy with less training and rudimentary equipment. To understand the sources of this strategic failure, Dr. Carter Malkasian, one of the foremost experts on the war in Afghanistan, joins host Bob Hamilton on this episode of Chain Reaction.

Clausewitz wrote that the first task of a commander is to establish “the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature.” After two decades of counterinsurgency operations, the US Army now finds itself observing – and supporting – Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s aggression. The war has turned into a grinding, attritional, industrial age struggle, the kind the US military had assumed was a thing of the past. In this episode of Chain Reaction, John Nagl joins to discuss whether the US Army is positioned to fight this kind of war, whether it wants to or not.

Related Reading:

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force - Katie Crombe and John A. Nagl

Robert Hamilton and Rick Landgraf join Aaron to tackle (almost) every question you were too embarrassed to ask about the defense and security issues central to Ukraine. Term by term, concept by concept, jargon by jargon. No acronym is safe!

How have Latvian and Lithuanian histories intertwined over the last millennium? Who was Queen Morta, a Latvian princess by birth who became the wife of Lithuania’s first and only king, Mindaugas? How close did we come to a Latvian-Lithuanian state in the early 20th century? How do Latvians and Lithuanians see their shared commonalities today? James Montgomery Baxenfield, Junior Research Fellow at Tallinn University School of Humanities, walks (literally) through this complex history.
Baltic Ways is brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Have you heard calls for Ukraine and Russia to "just negotiate"? What does theory say about how (and why) wars come to an end? Christine Cheng joins to discuss.

The Black Sea region looms increasingly large as the locus of of great power, military, political, and economic competition. FPRI’s Eurasia Program partnered with Ilia State University in Tbilisi, Georgia, to hold a two day conference on Black Sea geopolitics, security, strategic connectivity, and resilience.

In this episode, Head of Eurasia Research, Robert Hamilton, is joined by Director of the Eurasia Program, Maia Otarashvili, and Eurasia Fellows Aaron Schwartzbaum, Max Hess, Nikolas Gvosdev, Batu Kutelia, and Dato Sikharulidze to discuss key takeaways from the conference.

On this special double feature, The Continent visits the Balkans. How do we make sense of continued nationalism, the conflict it spurs, and Russia's regional influence? Mladen Mrdalj and Jasmin Munjanovic join to discuss.

Related Reading: Hunger and Fury: The Crisis of Democracy in the Balkans

If you're a Russian against the war in Ukraine, what options do you have? And how has resistance evolved as the war has continued? Colleen Woods joins the Bear Market Brief.

Related Reading: Is Russia’s anti-war movement changing people’s minds? by Colleen Woods

How has Russia's (latest) invasion of Ukraine exacerbated issues in domestic governance and political economy?

András Tóth-Czifra joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss his latest report "The War as an Accelerator: How Russia's War Against Ukraine Showcased and Exacerbated Domestic Governance Challenges."

How did Estonian democracy erode in the 1930s? How did liberal dissidents express their discontent under a more oppressive regime? Why is political rhetoric important, both now and then? Dr. Liisi Veski, fellow at the Skytte Institute, University of Tartu, dives into this complex, informative world of letters.

Baltic Ways is brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

US assistance has been a key factor in Ukraine's ability to not only survive Russia's invasion but turn the tide in some places. But could the US have done more, and done it sooner? Some in Ukraine and in the West have critiqued the US effort as incremental and risk-averse. Is this a fair critique, and if so, is this type of policy a feature or a bug of the US policy process? FPRI's Nikolas Gvosdev and Philip Wasielewski join host Robert Hamilton to discuss.

Germany announced bold remilitarization plans after Russia's latest invasion of Ukraine. A year later, where do we stand? Minna Alander returns to The Continent to discuss progress made, and the challenges ahead.

Patriotic education in Russia: how does it work? Is this any different from in the West? And among Russia's young people, are we seeing generational differences as far as political attitudes go? Allyson Edwards joins Aaron Schwartzbaum on the Bear Market Brief. Dark Sarcasm in the Classroom

Introducing Report in Short, a bite-sized series where we explore the latest in FPRI's research in 15 minutes or less.

This week: What is Wagner Group, how does the Kremlin use it, and how has its role and regional footprint changed? Raphael Parens and Chrisopher Faulkner join Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss their latest report.

Read the full report here.

As we return to The Continent, what is the latest on Turkey's upcoming election? Who is running, what is driving Turks to vote, and what does the result mean for Ukraine and beyond? FPRI's Director of Research Jim Ryan and Black Sea Fellow Selim Koru join to discuss.

We take a jaunt south to explore the people and politics behind Israel's Ukraine policy. What do Israel's leaders want from this war, and how do more locational considerations fit in? What does the local population with roots in the former Soviet Union make of all this?

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How do you make sense of Russia's seemingly contradictory narrative about its invasion of Ukraine? And how is support, or at least assent, for the war generated? Jade McGlynn joins to discuss.

Learn more about Jade's new book Russia's War

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How do you make sense of Russia's seemingly contradictory narrative about its invasion of Ukraine? And how is support, or at least assent, for the war generated? Jade McGlynn joins to discuss.

Learn more about Jade's new book Russia's War

How important is the war in Ukraine for the United States? What should Washington do about it? Stephen Wertheim drops by to share some options for your consideration.

Learn more about Stephen's book Tomorrow, the World

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What motivates people who, when Russian invaded, decided to run towards the fire and assist Ukrainians? British Expeditionary Aid and Rescue, an aid organization, joins to share its experience.

BEAR's Website: https://www.britishexpeditionaryaidrescue.org/
Donation Link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/british-expeditionary-aid-rescue-ukraine

On the anniversary of Russia's invasion, Maria Romanenko shares her experience fleeing Ukraine and reflects on what the war means, both personally and broadly.

Link: Fundraiser for building a museum in the village of Yahidne to showcase Russia’s war crimes there.

What do the statistics and other indicators coming out of Russia these days actually mean, and which ones should we actually be paying attention to? Chris Miller and Andras Toth-Czifra stop by to discuss.

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Faced with a possible defeat in Ukraine, will Russia survive until 2084? FPRI Senior Fellow Philip Wasielewski and Maia Otarashvili, the Deputy Director of FPRI's Eurasia program discuss the future of Russia, from internal ethnic and leadership struggles to its sphere of influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus as Chinese and Turkish power rises in the region.

Read Philip Wasielewski's report "Will Russia Survive Until 2084?"

This episode was recorded live on Zoom on January 31, 2023.

How is Russia's economy doing as we start 2023? And how is mobilization going - if it is even possible? Nick Trickett joins to discuss.

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What has the war actually been like on the ground? How have communities, and the Ukrainian government reacted? Kirill, a Kyiv resident and open source conflict researcher, joins to share his experience.

Support Vostok SOS: https://vostok-sos.org/en/i-wanna-help/rekvizyty-dlia-hroshovoho-perekazu/

As we drop by Paris, what is president Macron's angle, diplomatically or otherwise, in the Ukraine War? And how do populists on both the right and left play in?

This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on November 23, 2022.

What do Russians actually think about the war in Ukraine? How are sanctions being felt locally? And what can we learn - or not - from polls conducted in Russia's current political climate.

What spurred Italy's right wing populist wave? And what does it mean for EU policy? Federico Santi joins Aaron to discuss.

This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 20, 2022.

How did Hungary stray from the liberal democratic path? What does that mean in practice? And what explains its contrarian position on Russia within the EU? Andras Toth-Czifra and Marta Pardavi join Aaron to discuss all things Hungary.

This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on October 3, 2022.

Related reading: https://orban.media/

In this Bear Market Brief crossover episode, FPRI Templeton Fellow Phil Wasielewski joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to provide an update on the war and take a step back. What is the broader strategic picture and what does it mean for Putin and Russia?

We've looked how the war in Ukraine has impacted politics in several countries, but what about the EU as a whole? Charles Lichfield joins to discuss.

This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on September 14, 2022.

What exactly motivates Turkey's mercurial leader? On this episode, Sibel Oktay joins to discuss what's on Erdogan's mind these days and his angle on Ukraine, NATO, and more.

Join us as we cover all three Baltic States in (about) one hour. Guests Dr. Indra Ekmanis and Martynas Smitas share their views and some nuances on the current political and security juncture, as well as where the local Russian minority fits into all this.

The conversation with Indra Ekmanis was recorded on June 28 and July 3, 2022, and the conversation with Martynas Smitas was recorded on July 1, 2022.

Finland has a long border and similarly long history with Russia. How does the war in Ukraine change its defense and security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum and Minna Alander discuss Finland's security calculus.

This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on June 21, 2022.

Why and how did Sweden abandon centuries of neutrality, and where does it fit in the European security picture? This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Oscar Jonsson about Sweden's NATO ambitions and the country's current political crisis.

After abandoning a policy of neutrality, Sweden was expected to rapidly join NATO in time for the June 28 summit in Madrid. Instead, Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, has blocked Sweden's accession, demanding a series of concessions ranging from support for Turkish counter terror operations to extraditing Swedish citizens of Kurdish origin. To discuss this issue, Aaron is joined by Dr. Paul Levin, the Director of Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies.

How has the war in Ukraine changed Poland's politics, security, and even society? And what about Warsaw's relationship with Brussels?

This week Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Anna Wojcik and Wojciech Przybylski about Poland's past, present, and future in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 25, 2022.

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has bogged down, forcing President Vladimir Putin to wrestle with a series of questions about how to continue the invasion. The United States and its European Allies have pledged open-ended military support for Ukraine, allowing President Zelensky to replace equipment, and retain critical capabilities to defend the country. To discuss the latest developments in the war, Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, join moderator Aaron Stein.

This discussion was recorded live on Zoom on May 12, 2022.

The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is pleased to introduce a special Chain Reaction podcast series: The Continent.

The Continent explores how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe's politics and security. Host Aaron Schwartzbaum will "visit" a country on each episode, learning about key dynamics and trends from local experts.

In the first episode Aaron speaks with Marcel Dirsus and Jana Puglierin about Germany's response to the war in Ukraine. Just how important is this political moment for Germany? What does it mean for Germany to boost its military potential — and how might it use it?

This conversation was recorded live on Twitter Spaces on May 11, 2022.

Russia is facing a manpower shortage and has a series of hard political choices to make, as it seeks to continue its invasion of Ukraine. To discuss this issue, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA about the war, Russian options to escalate, and Putin's May 9th speech.

Since Trump’s infamous call for a border wall and vague, fear-mongering threats of a “caravan of migrants'', security along the US-Mexico border has become a topic of increasing interest for the average American. How much of a security concern does migration from South and Central America pose, if any, to the US? And how can the US address the root causes forcing this mass migration in a sustainable and non-destructive way?

Guest host Clint Watts will talk to Delphine Schrank, freelance journalist and former Reuters Latin American Chief Correspondent based in Mexico City. Delphine has traveled through Central America and Mexico with several migrant caravans. She and Clint will discuss the migrant experience traveling with a caravan and the root causes spurring these migrations.

The FY2023 Department of Defense budget has dropped and it is packed full of insights. To talk about the budget and what it means for the future of the Air Force and Navy, Aaron speaks with Valerie Insinna, the Air Force and Pentagon reporter for Breaking Defense.

Before many African migrants even see Europe, they are captured and imprisoned in migrant detention camps in Libya. These detention centers, while run by Libyan militias, were funded and enabled to be run by the European Union.

In this episode, Clint speaks with Ian Urbina, director of the Outlaw Ocean Project, a nonprofit journalism initiative exploring lawlessness on the high seas, who recently published a piece in the New Yorker “The Secretive Prisons That Keep Migrants Out of Europe”. He uncovered human rights abuses taking place in migrant detention camps in Libya and the international systems enabling the continued operation of these prisons.

The air war over Ukraine is now a month old. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Dr. Aaron Stein speaks with Dr. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council with new American engagement initiative, about the air war and the role defenses have played in frustrating Moscow's campaign.

The Syrian Civil War led to likely the most prominent migration crisis in modern history. In 2015, the European Union was forced to reckon with a surge of millions of migrants fleeing devastation and danger in Syria.

Foreign Policy Research Institute Distinguished Fellow Clint Watts talks with Jessica Bither, senior expert on migration at the Bosch Foundation. Jessica’s expertise lies in the intersection of technology and migration and she has extensively studied European migration patterns. They will discuss the security implications of the 2015 migration crisis and how this affected current attitudes and policy towards migrants in the European Union.

In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Mike "Pako" Benitez, a retiring active-duty officer with over 25 years of service in the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force, about the history of no fly zones, the challenges in setting one up, and the risk of inadvertent escalation. Mike wrote a recent article with Mike “Starbaby” Pietrucha about the topic and is the editor of the Merge newsletter.

Related reading:
The Dangerous Allure of the No Fly Zone - Mike Benitez & Mike Pietrucha - War on the Rocks

After seven days of conflict, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made clear gains, but has also suffered from obvious deficiencies. In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks again with Rob Lee, FPRI Senior Fellow, about the trajectory of the war, Russian challenges, and the future of the conflict.

This conversation was recorded on March 3, 2022.

International measures to slow climate change have been too little and too late, and the consequences of global inaction increasingly affect daily life here in the US. Americans are already being forced to move due to climate related disaster.

In this episode, Clint talks to Jesse Keenan, Associate Professor of Real Estate at Tulane University in New Orleans. They discuss how climate change is specifically affecting the US and what Americans should - and should not - be worried about in the near future as the planet warms.

In today's Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI Senior Fellow, and Michael Kofman, the Russia Studies Director at CNA, about the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border and the risk of "spillage" beyond the border.

Related reading:

"Putin's Wager in Russia's Standoff with the West" - War on the Rocks
"Moscow's Compellence Strategy" - Foreign Policy Research Institute

Excessive heat. Heavier rains. Natural disasters are growing in number and severity. Devastation from climate change is already a reality across much of the world and is prompting those in the regions most vulnerable to warming temperatures to ask themselves the question: do I stay or do I go?

In this episode, Clint talks with Dr. Jola Ajibade, Assistant Professor of Geography at Portland State University about how different global communities are migrating or adapting to climate change.

The Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine is complete, raising the risk of an imminent invasion. To discuss the latest, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a FPRI senior fellow, about Moscow's force posture and potential military scenarios.

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron spoke with Anna Nadibaidze about her new report "Russian Perceptions of Military AI, Automation, and Autonomy." The conversation touched on Russian views of Artificial Intelligence, autonomy, and the ethical use of these types of weapons.

The report is available for download on www.fpri.org

What does a warming planet mean for our national security? In this special segment, Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks to three experts on the impacts of climate change to US national security in a special Chain Reaction podcast series.

In late January, President Biden signed an executive order placing the climate crisis at the center of U.S. foreign policy and national security. Climate change is an unavoidable problem for everyone, but not every country will suffer the same ecological, social, political and military effects as our planet warms. Which places around the world will suffer the most traumatic consequences from extreme weather, rising seas and hotter temperatures?

FPRI Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts talks with John Conger, senior advisor to the Council on Strategic Risk and Senior U.S. Advisor to the International Military Council on Climate and Security to help answer these questions and provide an overview of the global threat of climate change and its implications on national security.

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Michael Kofman, who serves as Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, about the latest developments in Ukraine. The discussion centered on Russia's potential use of force and why the Kremlin may conclude that the actual costs of an invasion are lower than is commonly assumed.

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Dr. Laura Grego, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy at MIT, about Russia's November 15 test of a ground-based anti-satellite weapon, the challenges of space debris, and potential options to limit such tests in the future.

On this week's show, Aaron speak with Becca Wasser, a fellow in the defense program and co-lead of the Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security, about her recent article for War on the Rocks about the next National Defense Strategy, integrated deterrence, and the issues Washington should be considering as it plans for strategic competition with peer competitors.

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Susannah Patton, a Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre, about the recent submarine agreement. For listeners, check out Susannah's latest report, Correcting the Course: How the Biden Administration can Compete for Influence in the Indo-Pacific.

This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.

In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.

This week, Jan Matti Dollbaum, Morvan Lallouet, Ben Noble, authors of the book "Navalny: Putin's Nemesis, Russia's Future?" and Eilish Hart, editor of BMB Ukraine, join to discuss all things Alexei Navalny.

This week we’d like to introduce a special episode recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.

In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.

This week, Felix Light stops by to discuss Russia's upcoming Duma elections, what they mean, who's involved, and what to expect.

To discuss recent events in Ukraine, Aaron speaks this week with Rob Lee, a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about his recent report, Russia's Coercive Diplomacy. The conversation explores Rob's research about Russia's military build up around Ukraine and what that could signal for Russian coercive signaling during Zapad 2021.

The Iranian government is accused of using a loitering munition to strike the tanker Mercer Street, killing two crew members. The attack is the latest incident at sea involving the Iranians and international shipping. To discuss Iranian strategy in the Persian Gulf, Aaron speaks with Afshon Ostovar, an Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, about escalation dynamics and Iranian strategy.

On this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Chris Dougherty, senior fellow for defense at CNAS and the co-lead of the CNAS gaming lab, about a recent article he wrote for War on the Rocks, Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy's Strategic Bankruptcy.

In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.

This week Aaron speaks with Fabian Burkhardt, a research fellow at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, about Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin, his agenda, and what his role means for governance in Russia.

President Biden just finished a three-country trip, where he met with world leaders in the United Kingdom, Belgium, and in Switzerland. The main focus of the trip was to reinvigorate U.S. alliances in Europe and with NATO. To discuss the trip, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, the deputy director and a senior fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

This week we’d like to introduce a special series recorded in collaboration with FPRI’s BMB Russia, a news brief that brings together the latest on Russia’s economy, politics, business, and political risk environment.

In this special series hosted by FPRI Fellow and BMB Russia founder, Aaron Schwartzbaum, we’ll explore politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space and beyond.

This week Aaron is joined by Isabel Linzer, a research analyst on technology and democracy at Freedom House, and Nick Trickett, a specialist on Russia’s political economy and the author of the Russia section of Freedom Houses’ Nations in Transit report, to discuss the state of Russian democracy, as well as Russia’s electoral and internet freedom.

On this episode, Aaron speaks with Mike Benitez, a U.S. military officer and creator of the Merge newsletter, about the challenges of finding mobile rocket launchers in an urban environment.

The views expressed in this episode do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

This week, Aaron spoke with Steven Feldstein, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about his new book, The Rise of Digital Repression: How Technology is Reshaping Power, Politics, and Resistance (Oxford University Press, 2021).

The relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. This week Aaron chats with Robert Hamilton and Anna Mikulska, authors of FPRI's latest report "Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West '' about the major drivers of the bilateral relationship and its likely future trajectory.

Read the report here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/04/cooperation-competition-and-compartmentalization-russian-turkish-relations-and-their-implications-for-the-west/

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Army War College, U.S. Army, or the Department of Defense.

In this episode, Aaron speaks with Mule about the lessons that the United States should from the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operations in Syria. Mule is preparing to deploy to Jordan to command an operational support squadron.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

On this week's episode, Dr. Thomas Lynch joins the show to discuss his latest book, Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, which includes a series of essays about Great Power Competition and U.S. national security policy. The podcast discussed themes from the essays and U.S. policy under both President Trump and President Biden.

The book is available for free on the National Defense University Website.

In this episode of Chain Reaction, Aaron speaks with Nicholas Danforth, a Non-Resident Senior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, about the current state of U.S.-Turkish relations during the Biden administration.

The air war against the Islamic State was critical to the territorial defeat of the group's territorial caliphate and a key enabler of American partner operation led ground combat. To discuss the air war, Aaron spoke this week with Stacie L. Pettyjohn, director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and Becca Wasser, a fellow in the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, about their recent multi-authored book, The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has launched a global posture review, shortly after taking office. To discuss the process and the likely implications for U.S. posture in the Central Command area of operation, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a Fellow at the Center for New American Security's Defense Program and Co-Lead, The Gaming Lab.

Great power competition is likely to outlast the Trump presidency. To discuss the Biden Administration’s national security priorities and the role that special forces are likely to play, Aaron speaks with Tim Ball, a special forces officer and a fellow in FPRI’s National Security Program.

The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is a human tragedy, but also provides observers the opportunity to monitor modern conflict and think closely about lessons for Western militaries. To discuss the on-going conflict and what it may mean for future combat, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Director of the Russia Studies Program at the CNA, Jack Watling, Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, and Rob Lee, a PhD candidate at King's College, London.

Related Reading:

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Two Weeks In - War on the Rocks
https://bit.ly/31xD9CE

The Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Is Giving Us a Glimpse into the Future of War - RUSI https://bit.ly/35jJLFK

A few weeks ago, an AI algorithm beat a human pilot in a series of simulated dogfights, as part of the AlphaDogfight challenge to “demonstrate the feasibility of developing effective, intelligent autonomous agents capable of defeating adversary aircraft in a dogfight." The simulation touched off debate about the future of air combat. To discuss this, Aaron spoke this week with "Mule", an F-15E Weapons Systems Officer and Ryan "Stinger" Fishel, a F-15E pilot, about the simulation and the future of air combat.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

Events in Syria have brought American and Russian militaries into close contact. In recent weeks, a video emerged showing Russian helicopters flying low over an American patrol, and it was later revealed that US soldiers were injured when a Russian vehicle rammed an American vehicle. To discuss ground deconfliction, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, FPRI Black Sea Fellow and a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the Army War College.

Stay tuned for the launch of FPRI’s upcoming book Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned on September 14th.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to begin negotiations to normalize relations, so long as Prime Minister Netanyahu suspends his plans to annex the West Bank. The move was widely welcomed as beneficial for regional stability, but also raised questions about whether it was sustainable. To discuss the agreement, Aaron spoke with Dr. Joshua Krasna, a senior fellow at FPRI and a professor at NYU's Center for Global Affairs.

What is the latest with Turkey's F-35? To get the latest, Aaron speaks this week with Valerie Insinna, Air Warfare Reporter at Defense News, about the latest with Turkey and the F-35.

In this cross-over podcast with Arms Control Wonk, Aaron speaks with Fabian Hinz, a frequent guest on the podcast, about the recent explosions in Iran and what open source intelligence has revealed about the two incidents.

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to send armed forces across the border with Libya, following Turkey's successful ousting of Khalifa Haftar from territory his militia held in the western part of the country. The flashpoint is Sirte, where Turkish-backed forces are deployed and possibly preparing to assault, and which Sisi has pledged to defend. To discuss the Egyptian view of the conflict in Libya, Aaron speaks with Michael Hanna, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation in New York.

The United States Treasury will soon announce the first round of sanctions associated with the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which is intended to punish the regime for its killing of civilians and aims to help broker dialogue to end the conflict. To discuss the sanctions, and whether they may do more harm than good, Aaron spoke with Basma Alloush, a policy and advocacy advisor at the Norweigan Refugee Council, and Alex Simon, the director of the Syria Program with Synaps. This podcast expands upon Basma and Alex's recent article on the same subject for War on the Rocks.

Read the article here: https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/will-more-syria-sanctions-hurt-the-very-civilians-they-aim-to-protect/

In this week's episode, Aaron speaks with two of the three authors of The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement, Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside. The discussion touched on the period after the killing of Zarqawi, but before the group's take over of Mosul. For interested listeners, Haroro and Craig spoke in more depth about other aspects of the book on the Modern War Institute Podcast and on FDD's Long War Journal Podcast.

Modern War Institute Podcast : https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-islamic-state-happened/
FDD's Long War Journal Podcast: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/generation-jihad-ep-8-the-islamic-states-foundational-texts.php

Note: The audio quality of parts of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Lebanon finds itself in a financial crisis, brought about by years of economic mismanagement and political dysfunction. The economic fall-out from a relatively good response to the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these negative trends, raising questions about the trajectory and strength of on-going protests about social and economic inequality. To discuss the latest events in Lebanon, Aaron speaks this week with Joyce Karam, the Washington correspondent for the National.

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Inna Rudolf, the author of "The Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces after the Assassination of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis," the third chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Popular Mobilization Forces, the role of the now-deceased Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis within the organization, the Iranian influence over the PMF, and policy options to consider in the near future.

*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Ben Robin-D'Cruz and Renad Mansour, the authors of "Making Sense of the Sadrists: Fragmentation and Unstable Politics," the first chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Sadrist movement, its place in Iraqi politics, how it balances relations with Iran and the United States, and where it may be headed in the near
future.

Read the full report here: shorturl.at/myzN7

*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at Naval PostGraduate School and a Fox Fellow at FPRI, about Iran's response to the COVID-19 virus, its regional priorities, and what the future may entail for competition with the United States.

The Patriot missile system is back in the news, with the Turkish request for two Patriot batteries and the introduction of the system into Iraq to protect U.S. forces from Iranian missile attack. To discuss the details of Patriot deployments, Aaron spoke with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation.

In crossover podcast with two scholars from FPRI's Eurasia program, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the US Army War College and a Black Sea fellow at FPRI and Nikolas Gvosdev, the Captain Jerome E. Levy Chair in Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College and a FPRI Eurasia Fellow, about the crisis in Idlib. The conversation focused on the Turkish--Russian conflict and Moscow's strategy to defeat the anti-Assad opposition and the potential implications for the United States and Europe.

Read "Idlib: The Most Dangerous Place on Earth" here: https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/03/idlib-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/

In this episode, Aaron speaks with Clint Watts, a distinguished research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, about Russian and Iranian disinformation efforts surrounding the 2020 election. The episode touched on many of the articles published on the Foreign Influence Election 2020 (FIE 2020) project, which analyzes Russian and Iranian propaganda.

The Russian -- Turkish relationship is under strain, after events in Syria have challenged a series of ceasefire agreements the two sides signed to try and jointly manage the civil war. Do tensions in Syria signal an end of Turkish -- Russian cooperation, or is the relationship more complicated than a single crisis? To discuss this issue, Aaron spoke this week with Dimitar Bechev, a research fellow at the center for Eurasian and East European Studies and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Please note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The conflict in Libya has prompted more aggressive external intervention, beginning with the Russian decision to send mercenaries to give support to Khalifa Hiftar, the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Turkish decision to send its own forces, along with Syrian rebels, to augment its preferred actor, the Government of National Accord (GNA). Amidst two summits, one in Moscow and the second in Berlin, Aaron speaks this week with Yousuf Eltagouri, a FPRI contributor who works on stabilization programming in the Middle East and North Africa at DT Global, about events in Libya and the role of external actors.

After tensions with Iran escalated, American military operations in Iraq have been curtailed over concerns about possible attacks on U.S. soldiers. To discuss the threat to the U.S. military, Aaron spoke with Ian Rice, a retired US Army Colonel with experience in Iraq about the role of Shia militias in the fight against Islamic State -- and the threat they may now pose for U.S. interest. In a second interview, Aaron also spoke FPRI's Dr. Mike Noonan to drill down into the legal authorities for the targeted killing and the authorities governing American military force in the country.

After a period of calm following the territorial defeat of the Islamic State, Iraq has faced unprecedented protests, aimed at unseating the current ruling class and expressing anger at corruption and poor economic management. To discuss the protests, Aaron spoke with Maya Gebeily, the Baghdad correspondent for Agence France Presse.

During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Rachel Ellehuus, a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Be sure to check out the first part of this podcast on the EU perspective with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and NATO.

Note: The audio quality of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.

During the run-up to NATO's 70th anniversary summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Turkey would block consensus on the Graduated Response Plans for the Baltic States and Poland, along with the southern flank, unless the alliance recognized the YPG as a terror threat. Ankara eventually dropped this demand, but not before French President Emanuel Macron chastised Ankara for this approach and questioned Turkey's purchase of the Russian-made S400 missile system. To discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit, Aaron spoke this week with Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and the former EU ambassador to Turkey and Syria.

Please check out the second part of this show "The NATO Summit: The U.S. Perspective"

The Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria has upended the U.S. counter-ISIS mission and forced a hasty American withdrawal. To discuss the recent events, and what they mean for the U.S.--Turkish relationship, Aaron spoke with Nick Danforth, a senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.

In response to Iranian provocations, the United States has sent forces back to the Middle East. To discuss the American deployments, and the defense of Saudi Arabia, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.

Iran has been accused of firing cruise missiles and drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, a close American partner, and the world's most important energy producer. The attack was the most audacious yet, in what has been a simmering indirect conflict between the Middle East's two largest powers. To discuss this situation, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an FPRI Senior Fellow.

Israelis head to the polls, again, on September 17th to decide the fate of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud Party, and his many challengers. To discuss the state of the race, Aaron speaks with Michael Koplow, the policy director at the Israel Policy Forum.

The Assad regime launched a major offensive to recapture Khan Sheykun, a formerly opposition held town, and is now threatening to expand the campaign and continue his march north. To discuss the current offensive, Aaron spoke with Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Research Fellow, Forum for Regional Thinking, where she focuses on Syria.

After Iran seized a British tanker in the Persian Gulf, the United Kingdom surged naval forces to escort tankers, and are now joining an on-going American effort to escort ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Michael Stephens, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, about the British policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Related Materials:

Whether It Likes It or Not, Europe Is Being Pulled Into America's Iran Policy:

http://bit.ly/2YAjgLM

Check out these episodes of the Middle East Brief for more on Iran:

Iran’s Non-State Clients and Regional Strategy

http://bit.ly/2Wacz1O

Sabotage in Fujairah: Iran and Escalation Dynamics in The Persian Gulf

http://bit.ly/2YB02AW

Last Thursday (July 25, 2019) was the 25th anniversary of the Washington Declaration, which ended the state of war between Israel and Jordan. The peace treaty that followed remains a key component of Middle Eastern security and underpins relations between Jerusalem and Amman. Dr. Josh Krasna, a FPRI senior fellow and adjunct assistant professor at the NYU Center for Global Affairs, discusses the state of Israeli-Jordanian relations, the future of the peace treaty, and the role of the Trump administration.

Amidst reports of a UAE drawdown from Yemen, Aaron speaks with Elizabeth Dickinson, the senior analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the International Crisis Group, about the conflict and what role the United States could play in helping to de-escalate and end the fighting.

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Nada Bakos, an FPRI Senior Fellow and former CIA analyst, about her book, The Targeter, and what lessons can be learned from the effort to target Zarqawi and applied to dealing with Islamic State after the territorial defeat of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

Turkey's acquisition of a Russian made S-400 air defense system appears inevitable. To discuss the Russian side of this story, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a former Marine and PhD candidate at King's College, London. The conversation explores the state of the Russian defense industry, the structure of the S-400 deal with Turkey, and potential Turkish-Russian aerospace cooperation after the S-400 is delivered.

On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at RAND, to discuss Iran's relationship with various non-state actors in the Middle East, and how the Islamic Republic leverages these relationships to achieve foreign and military policy goals in the region.

Related Materials:

Iran Seeks to Cement Legitimacy of Shia Militias http://bit.ly/2WvmNcq
Triple-Axis: Iran's Relations with Russia and China https://amzn.to/2XcfVgY

Triple-Axis: China, Russia, Iran and Power Politics (Library of International Relations)

Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash.

Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar:

"Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards" https://amzn.to/2LPtYYR

"Iran, its clients, and the future of the Middle East: the limits of religion"
http://bit.ly/2W5FPG1

"The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War"
http://bit.ly/2WOnNVI

Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards

What is happening in Libya? Who are the key actors, which countries back which militias, and how has the Trump administration handled the recent surge in violence in Libya's capital city? On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Libya watcher and FPRI contributor Yousuf Eltagouri about the latest in the civil war.

Read More:

Haftar’s Final Play: Operation Flood of Dignity and the Fight for Tripoli : http://bit.ly/2Galcyw
Trump’s Embrace of Haftar Will Reignite Libya’s Proxy War: http://bit.ly/2GEWNT8

What is the future of northeastern Syria? After two days of talks in Erbil, Michael Stephens, a Research Fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, sits down with Aaron to talk about Syria’s northeast, the future of the Kurdish movement, the role of Turkey, and great power politics.

Turkish voters went to the polls on 31 March, casting votes for local elected leaders. The outcome in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's two largest cities, have rocked Turkish politics, and galvanized the political opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). To discuss the election, Aaron speaks with Selim Koru, an analyst at TEPAV, a Turkish think tank in Ankara.

Related Links:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/turkey-erdogan-election-defeat.html

https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/11/the-resiliency-of-turkey-russia-relations/

The United States and Turkey remain at odds over Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. The time to resolve American and Turkish concerns about this issue is running out, and the stakes for diplomatic failure will have repercussions for the bilateral relationship, the Russian role in the region, and could impact NATO. In this week's episode, Aaron discusses the S-400 issue, potential American sanctions, and the potential denial of the F-35 to the Turkish Air Force.

Related links:

The Russian Missile That Could End The U.S.-Turkish Alliance: http://bit.ly/2UJxVhK
Turkey risks US ire over Russia air defence deal: https://on.ft.com/2Y9MT2y
'Not serious': Turkey dismisses US pressure on Patriot missile deal as deadline looms:
http://bit.ly/2Fr0SK6
U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey: https://reut.rs/2UPIhN8

With all eyes on Baghuz and the final battle against Islamic State in Syria, the Middle East Brief podcast spoke with Robert Fox Fellow Rasha al Aqeedi to hear the latest from Iraq, which declared victory over ISIS in December 2017. The conversation touched on the nascent ISIS insurgency, the state of reconstruction in Mosul, and the many enduring challenges the Iraqi government now faces.