FactSet Evening Market Recap: Recent Episodes
Factset
StreetAccount U.S. Evening Market Recap is FactSet's daily podcast aiming to capture the most material market moving news. With a target time of ~5 minutes, this is an ideal listen for those looking to stay connected to the most important themes driving the U.S. economy & corporations.
US equities were lower in Monday trading, though the downside was fairly limited. It was a very quiet Monday session with few updates around the biggest market narratives. Nothing on the US economic calendar today in macro news.
Major US indices were higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both seeing their strongest weeks since April and the S&P ending at a fresh all-time high. Momentum outperformed again, though semis and memory were up and down through the week. It was a noisy geopolitical week, with the market looking for progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, though the downside was limited and indices remain on pace for solid weekly gains. Q2 results still very strong overall, though there is some scrutiny surrounding semi and software results. Geopolitics has been a lingering issue, with oil notably higher today amid reports Iran-Oman deal reopening Strait of Hormuz could bar US and Israeli vessels
US equities were mixed in Wednesday trading. It was another heavy earnings day with more than 75% of S&P 500 having now reported. There were mixed takeaways with AI capex scrutiny, elevated expectations, AI adoption/usage/initiatives and resilient travel demand some of the big themes.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off best levels. Geopolitics a focus today after morning's comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent that a deal on reopening the SoH could come today or tomorrow. June JOLTS job openings printed at 7359K
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near session highs. It was a risk on session to start the month of August with multiple tailwinds in focus. The highest ISM manufacturing print in four years showed support for the solid macro narrative.
US equities were modestly higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up for a second-straight week. Semis, memory, and AI infrastructure names sold off sharply at the beginning of the week, but a late week rebound was tabbed to factors including oversold conditions and a largely exhausted unwind. The July FOMC meeting ended with no rate change, as expected, though featured three dissents in favor of a 25 bp hike.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading. The momentum trade bounce was the big story. It played into recent talks around the unwind trade being largely exhausted. The biggest focus was on the hedge fund Situational Awareness, which suffered heavy losses from AI trade selloff, and is now said to have exited all of its public positions.
Stocks were lower in very choppy post-FOMC trading, with a lot of Fed-related moving pieces. Chair Warsh's press conference offered very few takeaways, though both stock and bond market volatility may reflect some uncertainty around the Fed's reaction function and lack of forward guidance.
US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, not far from best levels. Breadth solidly positive, equal-weight S&P led the cap-weighted index by ~90 bp. Momentum selloff continues to reflect fears around AI capex/ROI, open-weight/China competition, circularity.
US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading. Today’s risk sentiment was bolstered by a pause in kinetic hostilities in the Middle East. In macro news, June headline durable goods missed, though core capital goods orders and shipments both beat.
Major U.S. equity indices declined this week, extending last week's pullback. Markets spent the week balancing strong AI enthusiasm against rising geopolitical and macro headwinds. Mag 7 earnings got off to a rough start despite solid results, highlighting investors' sensitivity to AI spending and margin pressure.
US equities finished down in Thursday trading, ending a bit above session lows. Big tech was broadly lower with GOOGL and TSLA the notable Mag 7 decliners on their reports. Capex a notable overhang on the former though remains a positive for the AI infrastructure narrative.
US equities finished mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though S&P gainers/decliners were fairly evenly split. Overall, momentum extended Tuesday's bounce.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending not far from best levels. Momentum bounce was the big story today, though with no particular catalyst at play.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session, but the narrative was still dominated by familiar themes. With few macro catalysts on the calendar this week, attention is pulled ahead to earnings: 86 S&P companies reporting this week.
US equities were lower this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke back-to-back weekly gains, while the small cap R2K was down for a third-straight week. Iran tensions ramped up again this week with the latest hostilities between the US and Tehran.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, near session lows. Thursday saw another rotation out of momentum and into select cyclicals and more defensive pockets of the market. In macro news, headline June retail sales are up 0.2% month over month, in line with consensus but below May's upwardly revised 1.0%.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading. Breadth was positive, though the equal-weight (RSP) trailed the cap-weighted index by over 50 bp. Momentum was under pressure again as SOX reversed its Tuesday's gains, with no help from positive ASML results.
US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading. The rate rally on a cooler June CPI was a positive for risk sentiment, offering some pushback against the recent hawkish lean in Fed narrative. The momentum bounce was another tailwind following the latest unwind pressure that continued to be largely chalked up to technical dynamics.
US equities were lower in Monday trading as stocks ended a bit off their worst levels. Another big momentum selloff was the focus of the day, following a weak Asia session overnight. Similar to the momentum unwind that preceded last week's stabilization, there was no notable fundamental catalyst for the move
Major US indices were mixed this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both rising for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The week saw some stabilization in the momentum trade. June ISM Services was in line with consensus.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq now on pace for weekly gains. Momentum was again the big driver in a continuation of Wednesday's rebound. The broadening-trade was back in evidence after yesterday's narrowly focused gains, with the RSP not far below another fresh record close.
US equities were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though near the session highs. Geopolitics drove some of the broad risk-off today; oil and Treasury yields were up while S&P decliners outnumbered gainers by three to one. June FOMC minutes were largely uneventful.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, though off their worst levels. The momentum trade names led the market to the downside, with notable weakness in memory, semis, and AI energy infrastructure. Today's action extended the recent momentum selloff which has been attributed to factors including the growing fears around the return on investment for AI capex, Chinese and open source model competition, and frontier model commoditization.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. Momentum rebound was the big story today with no specific catalyst, but some analyst focus on the extent of recent drawdown in the space industry. In macro news, June ISM Services fell in line with consensus, though down month over month.
US equities finished mixed in Thursday trading. However, equal-weight S&P outperformed the cap-weighted index by ~70 bp and RSP set a fresh ATH. Momentum unwind in focus again with memory/semis hit by recent scrutiny surrounding AI capex trade and input cost pushback.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, off midday highs, though breadth was positive and the equal-weight S&P ended higher. There were several moving parts in play today, with another day of momentum unwinding as the big story. There were some positive takes on today's ISM manufacturing reading given a big drop in the prices-paid component and less pessimistic commentary.
US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, just off their best levels. The momentum trade again took the lead in a session without many notable drivers. There was some stalling of the broadening-out trade with S&P decliners leading advancers and the equal-weight S&P lagging the cap weighted index.
US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. There were several big gainers in the big-tech space, though no specific catalyst in view.In macro news, Dallas Fed manufacturing fell a bit below consensus, though still reported steady new orders and rising employment.
Markets were mixed this week with AI remaining the dominant theme as the Iran war continued to take a backseat. Early-week softness in semis and memory was driven largely by positioning and market concentration concerns, while actual fundamentals remained solid. Those concerns were largely offset by MU's blowout earnings and guidance, which reinforced confidence in the AI capex cycle and sustained memory demand.
Major averages were overall little changed, but there was a lot of movement beneath the surface. The momentum trade bounce driven by renewed support for the AI capex trade following blowout results from Micron. Pockets of the broadening out/reopening/cyclical trade worked as well, with small caps, industrials, builders, travel & leisure and banks the standouts.
US equities were mixed in Wednesday trading as stocks struggled for direction after the Tuesday selloff. Today's big rate rally and ongoing oil selloff did not do much to support stocks as a hawkish Fed remains an overhang, while inflation concerns beyond oil remain elevated. May new home sales rose 580K m/m, missing consensus of 640K and the weakest since Jan-26.
US equities built on the prior Friday's bounce and rallied sharply over the final week of November, ending higher for a fifth straight session. December rate cut odds pushed above 80% (after briefly falling below 30% in the prior week) as Waller and Daley followed Williams from late last week with dovish leaning Fedspeak. Claims data continued to offer a more optimistic assessment of the labor market amid continued concerns about incremental softening.
US equities closed higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 67bps, 69bps, and 82bps respectively. The Big story today was momentum factor outperformance following recent selloff. Elsewhere, Initial claims printed at 216K for week-ended 22-Nov, better than the 230K consensus, while continuing claims came in at 1.960M, below the 1.964M consensus. Treasury's auction of $44B in 7-year notes tailed by 0.6 bp, following Tuesday's tailing 5Y sale.
US equities ended the day higher, trading near beat levels. Big tech was once again in focus, with Nvidia a notable decliner amid competition concerns from Alphabet. Today also saw a lower rate backdrop as it was reported that Hasset was the front runner to replace Powell as the Fed chair
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. On the Fed front, December easing odds continue to tick higher with San Francisco's Daly the latest to publicly get behind a cut.
US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 down for a second week in the past three, and Nasdaq down for a third-straight week. Stocks finished the week lower with the momentum selloff the big focus amidst ongoing AI scrutiny/skepticism. Nvidia posted a beat and raise, but that was not enough to offset broader AI fears.
US equities lower in Thursday trading, near their worst levels. There was nothing specific behind the move, though stretched valuations, technicals, and the market simply falling back into the recent momentum unwind are all easy excuses. Thursday's jobs data also seemed to play into growth fears, including a negative revision for the August print, cooler wage growth than expected, the highest unemployment rate in four years, and continuing jobless claims setting a fresh cycle high
US equities finished higher in Wednesday afternoon trading, closing off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 10bps, 38bps, and 59bps respectively. Positive close followed a four-day slide for the S&P, with Nvidia higher ahead of its post-close print. October's FOMC minutes noted "many" participants suggested it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for rest of the year. Treasury auction of $16B in 20-year bonds tailed by 0.2 bp, with the bid-to-cover and foreign demand both weaker than recent trends. TJX and Williams Sonoma beat and raised, but Target missed and lowered FY EPS.
US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, though ended off worst levels in fairly choppy trading. Select big tech and AI still under scrutiny while healthcare remains a preferred destination.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. There were a few moving pieces as the market waits for a number of higher-profile events this week, including Nvidia NVDA earnings, retail earnings, FOMC minutes, a barrage of Fedspeak, and September’s NFP and flash PMIs. In macro news, the Empire State manufacturing survey for November posted a surprise increase to 18.7, its highest since last November.
Major US equity indices logged mixed performance this week, with a recent momentum unwind seeing some stabilization on Friday. AI names, retail-investor favorites, most-shorted names, crypto-linked companies, and quantum computing came under some pressure. Among the big stories in the ongoing AI-scrutiny thread were Softbank's sale of its Nvidia stake, a continuing selloff in Oracle with focus on its debt-fueled AI buildout plans, and Coreweave weakness after lowering guidance on delays from a third-party developer.
US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended just a bit off worst levels. Momentum unwind the big story today. No one specific factor behind the move, though fits with recent pickup in AI sentiment volatility. Higher rate backdrop also in focus with recent bout of hawkish Fedspeak and dampened December easing odds
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday afternoon trading, and off best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing up 68bps and 6bps respectively, while the Nasdaq closed down 26bps, in another session characterized by better breadth. AI sentiment helped by positive AMD analyst day takeaways and Foxconn earnings, though a number of big tech names were soft. Fedspeak for the day included Atlanta's Bostic noting he favors keeping funds rate steady until clearer evidence inflation moving lower, and Miran again noted his preference for a 50 bp December cut. Treasury's $42B 10-year note auction tailed by 0.6 bp with the lowest bid-to-cover since August of 2024.
US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, ending a bit off best levels. Rotation/better breadth the story today with select defensive and cyclical pockets of the market outperforming while some of the AI trade has come under renewed scrutiny after a big Monday bounce.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near session highs. The bigger story for the market today seems to be the rebound in AI sentiment after last week's drawdown. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but a busy day of Fedspeak.
Major US equity indices were down this week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq declining after three straight weekly gains. AI scrutiny remained a key focus, with attention on all the major narrative elements including cash burn, leverage, circularity, and ROI. There was attention on OpenAI agreeing to a $38B deal with Amazon, pushing the company's recent commitments near $1.5T.
US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended not far off worst levels. AI capex/ROI scrutiny seemed to be back in play, even as OpenAI walked back comments from yesterday about government guarantees on debt to finance AI infrastructure buildout.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though stocks ended off best levels in a late afternoon slide, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 48bps, 37bps, and 65bps respectively following Tuesday’s big decline. Some note of some skepticism from SCOTUS in today’s oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case. October’s ADP private payrolls printed at 42K, above consensus, and ISM services came in at 52.4, well ahead of consensus and September's read, hitting its highest headline since February.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended just off worst levels. Some of today's weakness seemed to be pinned on valuation concerns, flagging comments from Wall Street CEOs at a summit in Hong Kong.
US equities were mixed in Monday trading. Stocks didn’t do much as the market dealt with a number of moving pieces. In macro news, October’s ISM manufacturing missed, with the production index falling into contraction territory.
US equities were mostly higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped off a third-straight weekly gain, though the small-cap Russell 2000 was down for the first time in four weeks. Upside this week was tabbed in large part to positive Big Tech earnings takeaways and more momentum around the AI secular growth narrative. The rally also came despite a modest repricing toward a flatter Fed rate cut path.
US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading near their worst levels, although the S&P500 and Nasdaq are both still on pace for weekly gains. Big tech earnings were in focus, highlighting the elevated capex levels that are being seen as crucial for the broader AI trade
US equities finished mostly lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 16bps, the S&P500 flat, and the Nasdaq +55bps. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bp at their October meeting, with the economic summary noting activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, the labor market had seen slower job gains, but that the unemployment rate has remained low. September pending-home sales were unchanged m/m vs consensus for a 90bps increase. Nvidia extended a big Tuesday rally on Trump comments that he will discuss Blackwell chips in the upcoming meeting with China's Xi on Thursday.
US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though came off best levels into the close. There were more headlines about easing US-China trade tensions as the market gets more comfortable with the escalate to de-escalate narrative. There was more strategic M&A today following more than $80B dollars in announced deals on Monday.
US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, ending near best levels. The big focus today was on US-China trade de-escalation after weekend updates about a "framework" deal to avoid the large threatened tariff hike. The peak week of Q3 earnings season is ahead with about 36% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report.
US equities were higher this week with S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and DJIA all setting new record highs. Big tech was mostly higher with AMZN the standout, while TSLA lagged the pack. Other outperformers included semis, energy equipment, casinos, department, stores, hotels, chemicals, machinery, and A&D. Underperformers included consumer staples, utilities, telecoms, entertainment, railways, trucking, and precious metals miners.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading. Stocks were firmer with the path of least resistance still higher on Fed easing, solid macro backdrop, double-digit earnings growth and elevated retail impulse. The White House confirmed there is a scheduled Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea next Thursday, though the New York Times also came out with a report that the US may launch a Section 301 investigation into China's noncompliance with the 2020 trade deal.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 71bps, 53bps, and 93bps respectively. Easiest excuse for today's downside largely tagged to potential escalation in US-China trade tensions. Earnings saw high-profile disappointments from Netflix and Texas Instruments, with high bar for some of the AI power theme names, and additional reprieve from recent credit concerns from some financial reporters. Treasury's auction of $13B in 20Y notes was well received, stopping through by 1.2bp, though foreign demand was below recent averages.
US equities were mixed in somewhat choppy Tuesday trading, though indices are a bit off of their best levels. Outperformers included life sciences, A&D, electricals/multis, apparel, homebuilders, beverages, credit cards, machinery, auto suppliers, cruise lines, hotels, GSEs, and media. Overall earnings takeaways remain fairly positive and beat rates are still very elevated.
US equities were sharply higher in Monday trading as stocks ended just a bit off best levels. A risk-on session to start the week was tabbed to a few developments. And a much busier earnings calendar this week with 90 S&P 500 companies set to report.
Major US indices posted solid gains this week, rebounding from last Friday's session that saw the worst S&P daily performance since April amid flaring US-China trade tensions. Signs of US-China de-escalation boosted markets Monday, and by Friday Trump said his proposal for 100% tariffs on China was not sustainable. A large volume of Fedspeak had little impact on market expectations for two 25 bp cuts through year-end.
US equities close lower in Thursday trading, ending off worst levels, but major indices are still on track for solid weekly gains. There was some focus on the weakness in regional banks, and AI momentum was mixed on the day.
US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading as stocks posted modest gains in an up-and-down session, with the Dow Jones closing down 4bps, while the S&P500, and Nasdaq finished up 40bps and 97bps respectively. A few moving pieces today, including the continued ratcheting up of US-China trade angst, buy-the-dip optimism, earnings tailwinds, pickup in M&A, and focus on dovish Powell commentary yesterday. October Empire State manufacturing survey beat, posting third positive read in past four months.
US equities mostly higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, near best levels after shaking off some early-session weakness. Equities largely in positive territory after a more risk-off stance at the open amid still-volatile trade headlines and following Monday's big bounce. September NFIB small business optimism index dropped to 98.8 from prior 100.8
US equities were higher in Monday trading, though stocks ended a bit off best levels. Upside today has been tabbed to de-escalation of US and China trade tensions after Trump's Friday threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. AI is another piece of today's upside after the latest OpenAI deal, this time with Broadcom.
Stocks were lower after a Friday selloff pushed the major averages into the red for the week, with the major averages all off for the second week in the past three. The Friday pullback was tabbed to rising trade and tariff tensions between the US and China. AI was the other area of focus this week, as the AI secular growth narrative was helped by the announcement that OpenAI will buy $300B dollars of computing power from AMD in the next five years, while having the option to purchase up to a 10% stake in the chipmaker over time.
Stocks pulled back after another record-setting session on Wednesday. No meaningful change to the constellation of market's moving pieces, though perhaps some added attention to risks of some bullish themes. Still no progress on the US government shutdown.
US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing flat, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 58bps and 112bps respectively, the latter two notching fresh records, and today’s upside largely tabbed to a rebound in the AI optimism trade. Nothing meaningful out of the release of September’s FOMC minutes. Treasury’s auction of $39B in 10-year notes tailed by 0.3 bp, with a notable dropoff in bid-to-cover and foreign demand vs last month. Nvidia will reportedly invest $2B of equity in xAI as part of a ~$20B fund raise.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though off worst levels. Select tech underperformance the big story. Latest NY Fed consumer survey showed slight rise in year-ahead inflation expectations, though near-term optimism improved and some signals of better labor-market outlook.
US equities finished mostly higher in quiet Monday trading. It was a very uneventful session with the path of least resistance still tilted to the upside amid the catalyst vacuum. It’s quiet on the economic calendar this week, but busy in terms of Fedspeak.
US equities were higher this week, more than recovering last week's losses. The government shutdown kept markets in a catalyst vacuum this week, but optimism held on broader expectations of only a temporary labor slowdown coupled with Fed rate easing prospects. September ADP payrolls fell 32K, the weakest since March of 2023, while August was revised down to a slight loss, reinforcing softening labor momentum and bolstering expectations for two more Fed cuts this year.
US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, improving off mid-morning lows with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all logging new record closes. Ongoing government shutdown was the big headline focus, though market has thus far largely viewed as more noise than news. Senate to vote again tomorrow on GOP's seven-week stopgap, and if that fails no more votes likely until at least Monday.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, nearing best levels. The ADP report was the latest high-profile data point highlighting the softening labor market following Tuesday's JOLTS report. Elsewhere, the Senate again failed to pass the latest CR attempt to end the government shutdown.
US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, ending near session highs. Looming government shutdown has received a lot of attention. August JOLTS job openings beat, while July print revised higher.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, coming off worst levels in the last half hour of trading. A big focus today was on the looming government shutdown, with Trump meeting Republican and Democratic leaders at the White House. On the economic front, August pending-home sales were up 4.0% month over month, well ahead of consensus.
Major US equity indices finished lower this week, but came off worst levels in broadly higher Friday trading. Investors slightly dialed back expectations for two more 25 bp Fed rate cuts this year, with some economic data generally arguing against the economic slowdown thesis. After a relatively quiet period, trade-headline volatility burst back in at week's end, with Trump announcing via social media a set of sectoral tariffs on imports of patented drugs, heavy trucks, and select furniture products.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, though ended off worst levels with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 38bps, 50bps, and 50bps respectively. August durable goods orders rose 2.9% m/m, initial jobless claims printed at 218K, better than consensus, and final Q2 GDP was revised up to a 3.8% annualized rate. Oracle was a high-profile laggard following an initiation with a sell rating and news it will share part of a 45% stake in TikTok.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, though finished off their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 37bps, 28bps, and 33bps respectively. New home sales for August came in well ahead of estimates, rising to its fastest annualized pace since January 2022. Treasury auction of $70B of 5-year notes saw a slight tail. Alibaba jumped after disclosing it will ramp up its AI investment. Micron finished lower as better than expected results failed to meet a high bar.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended a bit off worst levels. Big story today was reversal from Monday's price action, as AI and Big Tech leading to the downside. Fed Chair Powell largely echoed his comments from last week's FOMC meeting.
US equities were higher in Monday trading as stocks ended near best levels. Stocks extended recent gains in a quiet session as the path of least resistance remains to the upside, tabbed today to the latest pickup in M&A activity. No major economic data releases were scheduled for this morning, but it was busy in terms of Fedspeak.
US equities were higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher for a third-straight week and setting fresh record highs. A couple of pieces played into this week's upside, including a big focus on positive market trends at the start of a rate cutting cycle. The September FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp cut, as expected, with one 50 bp dissent from new Governor Miran.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading, though stocks ended off best levels. Semis today had an outsized contribution to index gains following the news that Nvidia was investing $5B into Intel. Other areas of focus for today include Trump’s request to the Supreme Court for an emergency order to permit him to fire Fed Governor Cook, and the Supreme Court setting the International Emergency Economic Powers Act hearing for 5-Nov.
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, weathering some choppiness after today's FOMC meeting. The Fed delivered on a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut with the dot plot signaling another 50 basis of easing this year, though with a lot of dispersion. In other macro news, August housing starts fell 8.5% month over month, while July was revised down, its slowest pace since May.
US equities finished mostly lower in fairly uneventful Tuesday trading. S&P and Nasdaq came slightly off Monday's record highs. Headline August retail sales rose 0.6% m/m. August housing starts and building permits out on Wednesday morning, followed by FOMC statement, updated SEP and Powell press conference that afternoon.
US equities finished higher in quiet, rangebound Monday trading, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both setting fresh record closes. It was a very quiet session with no changes to broader market narratives, which are in waiting mode ahead of this week's big macro catalysts. Wednesday's FOMC meeting is the week's main event.
Major US equity indices were mostly lower this week after finishing 2024 with double-digit gains. The Market started the new year off on a more defensive tone as favorable December seasonality and expectations for a post-election rally failed to materialize. Still, the Street is broadly optimistic on 2025 with analysts expecting continued economic growth helped by consumer spending, solid real income growth, healthy household balance sheets, and fiscal-policy tailwinds.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending somewhat off worst levels. The market continued to have difficulty maintaining positive traction after another session where early strength faded into the afternoon. In macro news, initial jobless claims printed at 211 K for the latest week, down week over week and below consensus.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels. Very little on the schedule in the way of economic releases or corporate updates. Market was unable to hold onto some morning strength, feeding into continued commentary about how Santa Claus rally/favorable December seasonality has failed to materialize.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, though ended well off worst levels. US equities finished lower in Monday trading, though ended well off worst levels. November pending-home sales were up 2 point 2% month over month, slightly stronger than forecast, though October results were revised down.
Major US equity indices were lower this week, weighed down by a big Wednesday slide that saw the S&P post its second-weakest day of the year. Wednesday's December FOMC meeting was the critical event of the week. Analysts had firmly expected the 25 bp rate cut it delivered and were looking for some signal the Fed could pause rate cuts in January, but ultimately takeaways felt the meeting was more hawkish than expected. The late week also brought heightened focus to the approaching government-funding deadline.
US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended near worst levels. The market came off premarket early session strength following a big Thursday selloff chalked up to the hawkish guidance that accompanied the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut. In macro news, weekly initial jobless claims came in at 220K, below consensus and a notable slide from the prior jump to 242K.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading as stocks ended near worst levels following the FOMC decision, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 258bps, 295bps, and 356bps respectively. Today’s Hawkish Fed rate cut was an overhang as the Fed cut rates by 25 bp, as expected, but guidance language in its statement was tweaked in a hawkish direction and SEP median dot for both 2025 and 2026 up 50 bp and long-run dot up 10 bp to 3.00%. November housing starts missed consensus, but building permits came in ahead.
US equities were lower in fairly quiet Tuesday trading. Tech strength has been accompanied by underperformance in cyclicals/value, along with rate-sensitive plays. Headline November retail sales up 0.7% m/m. November industrial production surprised negative, capacity utilization also missed. December NAHB homebuilder confidence unchanged from November but below consensus.
US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading as stocks ended a bit off best levels, though Nasdaq finished at a fresh record high. Some of today's specific tailwinds include a rally in the semis and AI space, tabbed momentum following last week's Broadcom results, and an AI-driven Tesla upgrade. In macro news, December’s flash Markit Manufacturing PMI missed, falling to a three-month low as the report flagged weaker future expectations on tariff and inflation concerns.
Major US equity indices were mostly lower for the week after putting in a mixed performance last week. Stretched valuations was one of the major go-to excuses for a more defensive tone this week, with the market now largely in waiting-mode ahead of the 18-Dec FOMC announcement, though the market is pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25 basis-point cut. November CPI was the big economic event of the week, with CPI in line on both the core and headline numbers, though the most notable highlight was some deceleration in shelter inflation.
US equities were down in Thursday trading, selling off through the afternoon and ending near session lows. It was an overall weaker day with negative breadth and lacking the recent support that has been coming from Mag 7 names and the broader tech space. In macro news, November headline PPI is up 0.4% month over month, hotter than the 0.3% consensus, with the release noting a jump in foods.
US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 22 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 82bps and 177bps respectively. The Nasdaq set a fresh record high. Today's largely in-line November CPI report served to further solidify expectations for a December rate cut and market’s favoring a January pause. Today's $39B auction of 10-year notes was very well received. Bank of Canada cut by 50 bp, as expected.
US equities ended lower and near worst levels in Tuesday trading. There was some focus on underwhelming results and guidance from Oracle, though elevated expectations seem to be the big issue (and was flagged in other post-earnings pullbacks last night), while AI and cloud takeaways were largely upbeat. NFIB small business optimism jumped to highest level in November since June of 2021, snapping a 34-month streak of record high uncertainty.
US equities were lower in Monday trading as stocks ended just off worst levels. Nothing specific behind today's more defensive tone, which came amid heavier volumes. It was also a quiet day for economic releases.
US equities were mixed this week. Tech leadership was a key piece of this week's upside, driven after a rotational drag in November, some tailwinds from tech earnings and positive AI takeaways from the Amazon AWS conference. Extended positioning and sentiment continue to be cited as overhangs. November payrolls was the data highlight of the week.
US equities were lower overall in uneventful Thursday trading as stocks ended just off worst levels. It was a very quiet session, with the market largely in waiting mode for NFP on Friday. In macro news, jobless claims was today's only major economic release.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading as stocks ended near best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 78bps, 60bps, and 129bps respectively. November ADP private payrolls came in just below consensus with October revised down by nearly 50K jobs. ISM services missed. October factory orders a bit better than forecasts after a September contraction. Latest Fed Beige Book said economic activity rose slightly in most districts.
US equities were mixed in fairly quiet, rangebound Tuesday trading. Nothing really new from a narrative perspective despite big focus on latest international events. However, European and South Korean political risks having limited spillover effects at this point. October JOLTS job openings beat expectation. Quits rate up 0.2pp to 2.1%, highest since May.
US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading, near best levels. There were a few moving pieces today with the overall direction limited following a further upside last week and a big November rally. In macro news, November ISM Manufacturing beat, with new orders back in expansion territory for the first time in eight months.
US equities closed higher in uneventful Friday trading, ending a bit off best levels in a short session after the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. There were some minor easing of tariff worries after Wednesday headlines that Trump and Mexico's President Sheinbaum had productive conversations on cross-border flows. The Market processed limited newsflow today with nothing on the economic calendar and no scheduled Fedspeak.
US equities were slightly lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both breaking three-straight weeks of gains. Geopolitical risk sparked a ramp in oil prices this week, which could add risk to the soft-landing narrative and potentially put upward pressure on inflation. The big data report this week was September payrolls, which came in at 254K, above 150K consensus, while the prior two months were revised up 72K and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%.
US equities closed lower in Thursday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Quiet session with light volume and choppy trading with market in a waiting game for September NFP tomorrow. Middle East tensions continue to be flagged as an overhang. Weekly initial claims printed a bit above consensus.
US equities finished fractionally higher overall in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 9bps, 1bp, and 8bps respectively. Stocks stabilized today, largely shrugging off recent Middle East developments, while work stoppage at US East and Gulf Coast ports a widely flagged potential growth and supply chain risk. ADP private payrolls of 143K came in above 125K consensus. Richmond’s Barkin said Fed may have trouble covering the "last mile" on inflation.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, but ended off worst levels. Market trading risk off to start October/Q4 with latest ramp in Middle East tensions the go-to excuse. JOLTS job openings came in firmer than expected. ISM manufacturing a bit weaker than expected at 47.2 in September. Nothing incremental in Fedspeak.
US equities were higher for the week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new fresh all-time highs today, and the Nasdaq locking in five straight sessions of gains. China stimulus, Micron earnings, and August core PCE were the big stories this week. The global easing cycle was in the headlines with the SNB delivering its third consecutive rate cut and flagging the potential for further easing, while the probability of an ECB rate cut in October picked up as well.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading as stocks rebounded from Wednesday's mostly lower session. A number of bullish updates included much better than expected results and guidance from MU, while broader AI secular growth theme also supported by NRG, ACN updates. Initial claims of 218K below consensus, lowest since May, while continuing claims in line. Durable goods orders beat.
US equities were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels. Nothing really new today as market continues to wait for NFP next Friday and start of Q3 earnings. August new home sales declined less than expected m/m, with July revised higher.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels after a fairly uneventful afternoon. September consumer confidence came in below an upwardly revised August, with the present situation and expectation indices both lower m/m. September's Richmond Fed manufacturing index slipped m/m, with employment a weak spot.
US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet, rangebound Monday trading. September flash manufacturing PMI slipped to 47 from 47.9 in August, below the 48.5 consensus. A busy week of Fedspeak lies ahead, with Bowman, Kugler, Williams, Barr, Cook and Collins all on tap.
US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P setting a new fresh all-time high on Thursday (its 39th record close of the year) before trimming gains on Friday. After months of anticipation, the Fed this week opened up its long-expected easing cycle with a 50 bps rate cut, matching expectations as represented by futures pricing but coming against broad analyst consensus forecasting only 25 bps. August retail sales were slightly positive vs expectations for a decline, with analysts pointing to favorable weather and solid back-to-school shopping trends.
US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending not far from best levels. A big rally for stocks today following yesterday’s 50 basis point Fed rate cut., which saw the S&P 500 hit a fresh record close. In macro news, initial claims came in below consensus, falling to its lowest level since May.
US equities finished lower Wednesday, ending near worst levels in choppy post-FOMC trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 25bps, 29bps, and 31bps respectively. Monetary policy pivot was the big story today with the Fed opting for a more aggressive 50 bp rate cut. While the Street seemed to largely be in the 25 bp camp, the market was leaning toward 50 bp. August housing starts and building permits both came in ahead of consensus.
US equities finished largely mixed in Tuesday trading. Another quiet session ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Today's August retail sales report was a bit stronger than expected whereas previews suggested a weaker report could have tipped the scales more conclusively toward a bigger cut. Fed pivot and economic soft landing still seen as the main driver of the bullish narrative.
US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading in a quiet session after stocks caught a big bounce last week. It was a largely uneventful session as the market waits for the Fed's rate-cut decision on Wednesday. In macro news, the New York Fed's Empire manufacturing survey for September unexpectedly flipped positive for first time since November 2023.
US equities ended higher this week with big tech leading the way on the heels of some positive AI momentum and amid oversold conditions, after the S&P 500 posted its worst performance last week since March of 2023, and the Nasdaq since January of 2022. The August CPI report was a big highlight of the week ahead of Wednesday's September FOMC meeting. August headline CPI was largely in line while monthly core was hotter, with shelter prices the significant component of the core rise, and airline fares higher after five months of declines.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Stocks rallied amid today's modest ramp in 50 basis point rate cut odds after a media report that seemingly offered some additional support for an outsized move. In macro news, headline August PPI printed in-line but core PPI was a bit hotter than consensus, following yesterday's uptick in core CPI.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending at best levels as the market reversed some morning post-CPI weakness, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 31bps, 107bps, and 217bps respectively. August headline CPI was largely in line, up +2.5% y/y, while monthly core was hotter with shelter prices the significant component of the core rise and airline fares higher after five months of declines. Today's $39B 10Y Treasury auction stopped through, following a strong 3-year note auction on Tuesday.
US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended near best levels after reversing midday weakness. Today also saw rotation back into tech/semis/AI trade following well received Oracle earnings. Some underwhelming banking sector updates, weak auto guidance out of Europe and softness in commodities. Next big catalysts are tonight's presidential debate and tomorrow's release of August CPI.
US equities were higher in Monday trading, though ended off best levels. It was a very quiet session with few catalysts as the market rebounds off of Friday's weakness but continues to wait for key catalysts ahead, namely the September 18th FOMC meeting. It was also a fairly light economic calendar today, which included August’s Manheim used car index.
US equities were lower this week with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance since March 2023 and the Nasdaq’s since January 2022. Stocks were lower this week on growth worries, hawkish Fed rate cut repricing, and a shift toward "bad news is bad news" on soft economic data. Today's August payrolls was the big catalyst this week, following other soft data this week.
US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading but ended a bit off worst levels. It was an up-and-down session after today's mixed data, including a weak ADP print and better claims and ISM services, as the market continues to balance soft-landing hopes with questions about whether the Fed will opt for a 25 or 50 bp cut at its September 18th meeting. Friday brings the employment report, which is seen as a key input in this ongoing debate.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones closing up 9bps, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed down 26bps and 30bps respectively. Growth worries in focus again following softer JOLTS job openings and some cautious Beige Book takeaways. Atlanta Fed's Bostic said Fed must not maintain restrictive stance for too long, giving equal weight to employment side of mandate.
US equities finished down in Tuesday afternoon trading, ending near worst levels. Big risk-off session to start September. Came alongside another bout of global growth fears. Market in waiting mode for Friday's August payrolls report, which could offer best indication on Fed's near-term rate cutting path. August ISM manufacturing contracted m/m against expectations for an uptick.
US equities ended mostly lower this week in a fairly uneventful, low-volume week of trading heading into Labor Day weekend. Nvidia reported a beat and guided above consensus, though shares opened lower. July core PCE was in line with consensus, though the y/y print came in below estimates, while headline PCE was in line.
US equities were mixed in Thursday trading as stocks ended well off best levels, with month-end and MSCI rebalancing looming Friday. US equities shed its gains amid an afternoon selloff, though there were no catalysts behind the move and likely amplified by low volume. Nvidia was a sizable drag with post-earnings weakness seemingly driven by more elevated expectations, while the latest batch of data eased some growth fears.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off session lows. Today's weakness was fairly broad-based, but there was nothing seemingly definitive behind the move with the market still in waiting mode ahead of Nvidia earnings, which were reported after the close. The treasury supply was again in focus with today's poorly-received $70B 5-year note auction, which tailed ~0.3 bp, following yesterday's solid $75B 2Y sale.
US equities were mostly higher in fairly uneventful Tuesday trading. S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished modestly higher. Another very quiet session devoid of catalysts ahead of NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the close. August consumer confidence came in ahead of consensus. August Richmond Fed index deteriorated vs consensus for some improvement.
US equities were mostly lower and mixed in Monday trading, though ended a bit off worst levels. There’s fairly thin news flow and nothing to shift the broader market narrative. The market is focused on Nvidia NVDA earnings on Wednesday as the next key input for the AI secular growth theme.
US equities were higher for the week, with major indices adding on to last week's strong gains. The big focus of the week was on the Fed's policy path forward, with expectations firm for some sort of easing in September but still a fair bit of uncertainty about the magnitude and pace given worries about the labor market and the ongoing debate about a soft versus hard economic landing. The market ends the week with the S&P back over 5600 and not far below July's record highs, having largely (and quickly) erased the downslides earlier this month on concerns about faltering growth and a Fed that was behind the curve.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. The market moved lower after a higher open, but there was no definite catalyst behind today’s shift, though the move may be exacerbated by thin late-summer volumes, especially amid anticipation for Powell's comments at Jackson Hole tomorrow. In macro news, weekly initial jobless claims were largely in line, while continuing claims were lighter versus consensus, though still hit its highest level since November 2021.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 14bps, 42bps, and 57bps respectively. The BLS annual payrolls benchmark revision came in at -818K, largest negative revision since the Great Financial Crisis. July FOMC minutes flagged heightened risks to employment and noted majority of participants believe September cut likely appropriate. Markets raised odds of a 50 bp cut in September by ~10 bp to 39%.
US equities finished lower in uneventful Tuesday trading, though ended off worst levels. Market continues to wait for Powell on Friday and Nvidia earnings next Wednesday. Path of least resistance remains higher on soft-landing narrative traction, looming Fed rate cuts and favorable flow dynamics.
US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, ending near best levels. The market's attention remains pulled ahead to Fed Chair Powell's Friday speech at Jackson Hole as well as Nvidia earnings next week. Nothing on the US economic calendar today and a very quiet week ahead in macro news.
US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke four-week streaks of declines and posted their best weekly performances since November of 2023. July core CPI was in line with consensus, though the three-month annualized core CPI pace of 1.57% was the slowest since Feb-21, while the six-month annualized pace of 2.84% is the lowest since March-21. Fedspeak leaned more dovish this week, with Atlanta's Bostic warning that the Fed needs to be more mindful of the employment mandate, while Chicago's Goolsbee said that the Fed needs to cut rates before the labor market weakens further, or it would risk moving too late and negatively impacting the economy.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Today's upside was driven by more soft landing optimism after July retail sales and the latest initial claims data offered pushback against growth concerns after yesterday's CPI print added to the well-understood disinflation momentum. It’s been a busy day on the US economic calendar today in macro news.
US equities were mostly higher in uneventful Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 61bps, 38bps, and 3 bps respectively. Headline July CPI and core CPI came in right in line with consensus, both rising +0.2% m/m. Retail sales on tap for Thursday with the Street looking for headline retail sales to increase 40bps in July. Fedspeak included Chicago's Goolsbee, saying the Fed needs to cut before labor market weakens further.
US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels. Disinflation traction today's tailwind for risk sentiment following cooler July PPI print. Macro expected to remain the key near-term directional impulse. Retail also traded well today despite some initially disappointing earnings takeaways.
US equities were mixed in somewhat choppy, uneventful Monday trading. Not a lot of new directional drivers today, with the market continuing to weigh well-worn themes. Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's retail sales are expected to get outsized attention this week.
US equities were down for the week, though major indices recovered from worst levels after Monday's big declines (when the S&P logged its worst daily decline since September of 2022; and the Nasdaq its worst since October of 2022). The market this week lived in the echo of last Friday's weaker-than-expected July payrolls report, which seemed to fan fears about a coming hard landing and a Fed well behind the curve. At the same time, there was also commentary about drawdowns as a normal feature of the equity markets and the fact that even at Monday's close, the S&P was only 8.5% below its record high from July 16th.
US equities ended higher in Thursday trading, just off best levels, with S&P 500 logging its best daily performance since October 2022. The market rallied off the back of this morning's jobless claims data, which came in below consensus and is likely to accelerate pushback against hard-landing, recession, and bear market concerns. In macro news, initial jobless claims came in at 233 K, below consensus, its lowest in four weeks and reflecting some moderation from recent Hurricane Beryl-related disruptions. It's also been a busy day of consumer earnings results.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 60bps, 77bps, and 141bps respectively. Market was unable to carry over momentum from Tuesday's broad-based bounce. Today's $45B 10Y auction tailed 3 bp. Bid-to-cover was the weakest since Dec-22 and dealer take most since April. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida stressed need to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being and ruled out tightening when markets unstable.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, though ended off best levels with a bit of selling in the later afternoon. Market engineered a firm bounce following Monday's big drawdown. Several dynamics in focus, including Fed pushback against recent pickup in hard-landing concerns.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, though ended off worst levels. •Global risk-off was again the story of the day. Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are both in correction territory while the S&P is now down nearly 8 point 5% from its July 16th record high. July ISM services beat estimates with new orders back into expansion, its highest since March, though prices paid ticked slightly higher.
US equities ended lower this week after putting in a mixed performance last week. This week saw sentiment move decidedly negative with a focus on growth and recession concerns amid a stream of weak employment and manufacturing data punctuated by Friday's nonfarm payrolls miss and spike in unemployment. The July FOMC decision left rates unchanged as broadly expected with no explicit indication of a September rate cut (though seems to be a forgone conclusion now).
US equities were lower in Thursday trading, though ended a bit off worst levels. Growth worries moved to the front burner today after another weak ISM Manufacturing reading and a step-up in jobless claims. There was also a continuing buildup of consumer-softness commentary in earnings calls.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 24bps, 158bps, and 264bps respectively. Tech bounce was the big story for the better part of today. The Fed held the benchmark rate, and Fed Chair Powell said in press conference that a September rate cut could be on the table. July ADP private payrolls missed, and Q2 ECI came in cooler versus expectations. Post-Bank of Japan yen strength the big story in FX.
US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, ending well off worst levels. Recent rotational dynamics returned today with semis/AI weaker after seeing some modest gains on Monday trading. While some drag tabbed to latest batch of earnings, AI scrutiny has been ramping higher over the last few weeks with the focus on elevated capex vs uncertain monetization/productivity tailwind. May FHFA home price index was little changed, and July consumer confidence came in above consensus.
US equities ended mostly higher in Monday trading. The recent rotation trade out of momentum, growth, and tech and into small caps, value, and cyclicals have taken a breather today. It’s going to be a busy earnings week with more than 170 S&P 500 companies set to report earnings this week.
US equities were mixed this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower, though the equal-weight S&P 500 and small cap Russell 2000 outperformed the large cap index for the third straight week. This week saw more of the same rotation from recent weeks, with small caps and cyclicals among the relative outperformers, while technology, AI-linked stocks, and momentum again sold off. Data this week that helped elevate growth concerns included July flash manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly fell into contraction territory, though flash services PMI improved slightly. June existing home sales fell to the slowest pace since December and new home sales since November.
US equities finished mixed in Thursday trading, ending off best levels from midday. Several dynamics were in focus following a big Wednesday selloff, which saw the S&P 500 suffer the biggest one-day pullback since December 2022 and snapped the 356-day streak without a 2% or more decline. Initial jobless claims dropped more than forecast w/w after last week's print which was the highest since August of 2023.
US equities finished down in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq falling 125bps, 231bps, and 364bps respectively. Today marked the Largest S&P decline since Dec-22; and the Nasdaq logged its worst daily performance since Oct-22. Disappointing big-tech earnings takeaways were a major overhang on sentiment. July composite flash PMI was in line. June new-home sales were well below consensus. June US Architecture Billings Index (ABI) increased to 46.4 from 42.4 in May.
US equities finished mostly lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels. Big tech was mostly higher after leading market on Monday. Still a lot of debate about whether recent rotations out of momentum/growth/tech and into small caps/cyclical/value will continue. Earnings flagged as the next key input with big tech results in focus. Existing-home sales came in well below consensus.
US equities finished higher in relatively quiet Monday trading, with the S&P and Nasdaq rebounding after last week's declines. Politics dominated the headlines following Biden’s exit from the presidential race, though there was also skepticism about whether it provides a meaningful shift in the near-term election calculus. Flash US PMIs, new home sales, Q2 GDP, durable goods orders and PCE inflation are the notable releases for the week.
US equity indices were mixed in this week's trading, with the market largely continuing to see a rotation out of big tech/growth/momentum and into value, cyclicals, and small caps. The week's big economic release was June retail sales, which were flat against expectations for a monthly decline. There was some notable Fedspeak, primarily a Monday appearance by Chair Powell in which he said incoming data has given policymakers more confidence on inflation.
US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks extended Wednesday's declines, though finished a bit off worst levels. Lots of moving pieces were in play today as the market extended recent declines, though massive rotational dynamics were not as clear cut today as over the last week or so. Politics is in focus again with Axios reporting that some top Democrats believe Biden could exit the race as soon as this weekend.
US equities finished mostly lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing +59bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 139bps and 277bps respectively. June housing starts and building permits both came in well ahead of consensus. June industrial production beat. Fed’s Waller said he believes the Fed is getting closer to a cut being warranted, while Williams ruled out July easing. July Beige Book noted most districts saw slight to modest growth.
US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels. Tuesday saw an extension of recent rotation out of tech and into value/cyclical/small-caps. Analysts optimistic on durability of broadening given factors including soft-landing support, disinflation traction, elevated odds of GOP sweep in November, and expectations around Fed easing. June retail sales flat m/m, better than consensus for a monthly decline, while May revised higher. Auto sales weak as expected on cyberattack impact.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, though ended well off best late-morning levels. Stocks extended last week's gains and last week's rotation into small caps, value, and cyclicals, and out of big tech, long momentum, and high beta groups. Fed Chair Powell said he wouldn't send signals around any particular meeting, which some early economist reads said suggests July may be off the table.
US equities ended higher this week, with the Dow Jones +1.59%, the S&P500 +0.87%, and the Nasdaq +0.25%. Small-caps and equal weight S&P 500 strongly outperforming the other major indexes following post-CPI rotation out of big tech, while at the same time, the official S&P 500 index reached all-time highs this week. June's CPI disinflation sparked rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on the S&P and Nasdaq. Big banks kicked off first round of corporate results and mostly underwhelmed. Biden spent the better part of the week rejecting calls for him to exit the presidential race. Fed Chair Powell concluded a largely uneventful two-day testimony before Congress, with big takeaway the two-sided risks to economy.
US equities finished mixed in Thursday afternoon trading. This morning's cooler-than-forecast June CPI report drove today’s price action. However, disinflation sparked rotation from big tech toward small caps and non-big tech groups, creating a relative drag on S&P and Nasdaq.
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 109bps, 102 bps, and 118bps respectively. Chair Powell's second day of congressional testimony noted recent improvements in the data but hopes for increased confidence in the disinflationary path. Today's $39B auction of 10Y notes stopped through, with solid bid-to-cover and strong demand from directs. Street expecting tomorrow’s June core CPI to increase 0.2% m/m in June, which would leave the y/y rate at 3.4%.
US equities ended mixed on Tuesday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq locking in sixth-straight gain. Chair Powell's appearance offered no change Fed rate cut path outlook, while latest Treasury auction the latest in a string of well-received sales. Bank earnings the focal point and another report today about less onerous capital requirements.
US equities ended mostly higher Monday, though off best levels. It was a fairly quiet session with the market in waiting mode ahead of this week's inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season. New York Fed one- and five-year inflation expectations for June declined month over month with consumers seeing slower expected price gains for rent and food.
Stocks were higher this week with the S&P 500 rebounding after snapping a three-week streak of gains last week, while the Nasdaq was higher for a fifth-straight week as both hit fresh-record highs. The key near-term upside narrative this week was more support for a September Fed rate cut after data showed cooling inflation and weaker labor market data. Cooler data this week included Friday's June payrolls report beat, but the prior two months were revised down a combined 111K while the unemployment rate rose for a third-straight month to 4.1%, the highest since November of 2021.
US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones ending down 6bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 51bps and 88bps respectively. The S&P and Nasdaq both posted fresh record closes. June ISM services re-entered contractionary territory, and the final S&P services PMI for June was also lower. ADP private payrolls were a bit below consensus, with wage growth job stayers slowest since August of 2021. Initial jobless claims were a bit above expectations, and continuing claims also higher than expected. FOMC minutes out this afternoon noted participants continued to look for ‘greater confidence’ in disinflation trajectory.
US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Market started the day a bit choppy but ended stronger amidst several moving pieces. Rates have stabilized following a big backup over prior two sessions partly driven by heightened probability of a Republican sweep. Powell highlighted progress on inflation and two-sided risks to Fed's goals. JOLTS came in stronger than expected and macro narrative remains volatile.
US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet Monday trading. It was a busy day from a headline perspective, though fairly quiet from an index level. In macro news, June ISM manufacturing missed, its lowest since February, though there was a notable drop in prices-paid index, and new orders improved, though the employment index fell back into contraction territory.
US equities ended mostly higher this week with solid performances from big tech (though Nvidia again underperformed). The big focus this week was on some disappointing key corporate updates, the Trump-Biden presidential debate, the May PCE report, and a continued volatile macro narrative. Core PCE inflation was in line with consensus with April revised slightly upward.
US equities finished higher in Thursday trading after an up-and-down session that saw official S&P performance a hair behind the equal-weight index. It was a fairly quiet and uneventful session, though there were a few dynamics at play. Today's mixed economic data and cautious consumer updates also seem to reflect a gradually cooling economy and solidifying hopes for a September cut and pushing rates lower.
US equities ended mostly higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 4bps, 16bps, and 49bps respectively. May new home sales missed. Architecture Billings Index declined in May to its lowest level since August 2020. Today's $70B auction of 5-year notes saw slight stop through in latest well-received sale. Micron trading lower after hours as revenue guidance was shy.
US equities finished mixed in Tuesday afternoon trading, with S&P and Nasdaq breaking a streak of three straight declines. Today saw some reversal of the recent momentum unwind. Underwhelming corporate updates were another area of focus. Little directional impulse from economic calendar or Fedspeak. Stretched positioning and buyback blackouts flagged as near-term headwinds.
US equities ended mixed Monday, well off best levels. Nvidia, semis, and AI-linked names extended recent declines, with Nvidia now off more than 10% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down over 5% since 18-Jun. However, breadth is positive with strong performance across value and cyclical groups. There was not much on the economic calendar as the June Dallas Fed Index missed, though was better m/m.
US equities ended higher in this shortened week of trading with the Equal Weight S&P outperforming the official index. Fed rate cut expectations received a boost from the latest retail sales report, which added to the growing pool of evidence of a cooling US economy. AI enthusiasm also continued to provide support to sentiment with Nvidia surpassing Microsoft on Tuesday to become the most valuable public company.
US equities ended mostly lower Thursday, near worst levels. Price action reflects some consolidation across recent AI winners after Nvidia surpassed Microsoft on Tuesday to become the most valuable public company. a busy day of economic data include an initial claims miss, though slightly off last week's nine-month high that triggered some growth worries, while continuing claims was also a bit higher than expected and the highest since January.
US equities ended higher Tuesday, a bit off best levels. S&P locked in 31st record high of the year. No new developments around the major themes as today's big event, May retail sales, reaffirmed weakening consumer trends and growth concerns and offered more support for September rate cut. Sentiment remains positive and the path of least resistance still seems tilted to the upside, though the macro narrative has been flip-flopping over the past few weeks.
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off best levels as an afternoon rally erased some morning weakness. Not much was behind today's risk-on move with very few catalysts to start what is expected to be a fairly quiet week, with Wednesday being a market holiday in the US. June Empire manufacturing beat as employment index weakened, though prices paid and prices received indexes both fell and the future conditions index was its best in more than two years.
US equities were mixed this week as the S&P and Nasdaq posted solid gains, while the Dow and Russell 2000 were both lower. This week's upside driven in large part by another rate rally and more soft landing optimism after the May CPI and PPI reports added to the disinflation traction narrative. The June FOMC meeting ended with no change to the benchmark rate at 5.25-5.50% as expected.
US equities finished mixed in Thursday trading, ending not far from best levels after some midday weakness. The market struggled to continue Wednesday's momentum despite more signs of renewed disinflation traction from the PPI results. Headline May PPI unexpectedly declined month over month and core PPI was cooler than expected.
US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 9bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 85bps and 153bps respectively. risk-on sentiment was driven by renewed disinflation traction from a cooler than expected May CPI print, with headline flat and core up only 0.2% m/m. Little surprise from today's June FOMC meeting. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and updated dot plot showed just one rate cut in 2024. Oracle missed but stock rallied on strength in RPOs, upbeat 2025 guidance and new AI-driven cloud deals.
US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels and seeing the S&P and Nasdaq both set fresh record closes. Several smaller themes were in play today, but the big narrative is that the market is in waiting mode ahead of tomorrow's May CPI and June FOMC releases, though few surprises are expected from either report, and market sentiment has largely coalesced on the Fed remaining on hold until at least September. Today's $39B 10Y note auction was stronger than expected, stopping through by ~2bp and taking some pressure off yesterday's weak 3Y note auction.
US equities finished higher in Monday afternoon trading, ending near best levels. The market shook off some early-morning weakness and is now seeing gains across the major indices ahead of a number of high-profile catalysts this week. It’s been a light day on the economic calendar, including the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, which showed 1 year inflation expectations tick down 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%.
US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq both logging their sixth gain of the past seven weeks and setting fresh record highs earlier in the week. It was another big week for big tech, with Nvidia garnering a lot of attention for its continued run higher and move above $3T in market cap. On the jobs front, a decline in April job openings and a below-consensus May ADP report played into expectations for continued softening in job creation, but Friday nonfarm payrolls were much hotter than expected (and average hourly earnings grew faster than forecast as well).
US equities ended mostly lower Thursday, with the Dow Jones closed up 20bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished down 2bps and 70bps respectively. Initial jobless claims came in above consensus, hitting their highest level since early May. Continuing claims were in line, though highest since late March. Final first quarter productivity came in below consensus, while unit labor costs also were revised below consensus. The ECB cut its benchmark rate by 25bp as expected.
US equities ended higher Wednesday, near their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 25bps, 118bps, and 147bps respectively. ADP private payrolls were up 152K, softer than the 175K consensus and the lowest print since January. May ISM services beat, with prices paid falling m/m to its lowest since March, while employment was slightly higher but still in contraction territory. Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 25 bp, as expected, and ECB expected to cut tomorrow.
US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday, a bit off best levels. Not much behind modest late afternoon recovery from session lows with another Treasury rally and dovish repricing around Fed rate path the easiest excuses. Growth concerns remain key area of attention following softer ISM manufacturing print. April JOLTS job openings of 8.059M well below 8.360M consensus, lowest since Feb-21.
US equities ended mixed Monday, recovering from session lows. May ISM manufacturing missed, falling further into contraction territory. New orders also missed, though the employment index was higher, back into expansion territory and the best since August 2022.
US equities ended lower this shortened week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq breaking five straight weeks of gains. Regarding consumers, there were more signs of weakening and additional talk about a pushback on pricing and the need to ramp up value proposition, however, the broader consumer resilience theme is still largely intact. Regarding this week's economic data releases beyond PCE, May consumer confidence index strengthened ahead of consensus after three months of declines, helped by a perceived strong labor market.
US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, though off worst levels. Despite the weak index finish market breadth was positive, with somewhat softer economic data contributing to lower Treasury yields after a notable multiday backup driven by hawkish Fedspeak, oversupply concerns, and firmer data. In macro news, Q1 GDP was revised down to a 1.3% SAAR in the second read from the prior 1.6% flash, with the release pointing to a downward revision to consumer spending.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending not far from worst levels after having remained in largely the same range through the bulk of the session; Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 106bps, 74bps, and 58bps respectively. Rate backup the big overhang on stocks as of late, made worse this afternoon by yet another weak Treasury auction, with $44B in 7Ys tailing around 1.5 bps, and underlying metrics worse than recent averages. May Richmond Fed Index beat. Fed's latest Beige Book report noted most districts saw slight or modest growth.
US equities finished mixed in fairly uneventful Tuesday trading, though ended off worst levels. Rate backup on supply pressure and firmer data (and commodity rally) an overhang. May consumer confidence improved on both expectations and current conditions. Labor-market differential better as well.
US equities were mixed this week though the Nasdaq posted a fifth-straight weekly gain while the S&P 500 finished fractionally higher for a fifth-straight gain. Data also skewed positive this week, including May flash manufacturing and services PMIs both ahead of consensus, including flash composite PMI the highest in two years. Nvidia earnings were the highlight of this week's batch of results.
US equities ended down Thursday, near session lows. Market mood is negative today, with solid economic data contributing to the good-news-is-bad-news dynamic and adding some more support to the higher-for-longer Fed narrative. However, major market indices are getting some support from Nvidia’s NVDA beat and raise against a high bar.
US equities ended lower Wednesday, not far from their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 51bps, 27bps, and 18bps respectively. May FOMC minutes discussed "disappointing" data not boosting policymakers' confidence and that disinflation was likely to take longer than previously thought. April existing home sales missed, though March sales revised higher and inventory dynamics continued to improve. Goldman CEO Solomon said he doesn't see Fed cutting rates this year. nVidia beat on earnings and guidance, raised its dividend and announced a stock split.
US equities ended mostly higher and near session highs in uneventful Tuesday trading. No big directional drivers in play coming off a four-week rally driven by soft-landing narrative traction. Quiet on the macro front aside from the flurry of Fedspeak and Fed officials not really saying anything new with next key inflation data point still a few weeks away.
US equities ended mostly higher Monday in a fairly quiet, rangebound session. No meaningful impact from Middle East developments, but the market is still closely monitoring the news. Nothing on the economic calendar today, though it’s been a busy day in Fedspeak.
US equities were modestly higher this week, with major indices logging their fourth consecutive week of gains. It was a week of renewed momentum for some meme stocks, including GME +27.2%. April core CPI was in line with the headline a bit softer than expected. It was a lighter week for Q1 earnings, with only seven S&P constituents reporting. Overall, the season continues to come in better than expected.
Stocks had a largely uneventful trading session and lost some early-morning strength as the day evolved. Soft-landing narrative traction is the big tailwind for risk sentiment as of late. Another busy day for both economic data and Fedspeak.
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 88bps, 117bps, and 140bps respectively. The S&P 500 set a new record close for the first time since 28th of March. Headline CPI a bit cooler than expected in April while core CPI was in line with consensus. Retail sales came in below expectations, while April’s NAHB homebuilder sentiment saw a greater-than-expected drop. Fed’s Kashkari said it would be prudent to sit a while and figure out where inflation is headed.
US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. The Market's path of least resistance seems to be remaining higher, with investors largely shaking off a hotter headline PPI (with likely some reprieve from limited spillover to PCE and negative revisions). There was nothing particularly incremental from Fed Chair Powell, who reiterated skepticism about a rate hike as the next policy move.
US equities finished mixed in largely uneventful Monday trading, spending much of the session near the unchanged mark. Another quiet, low volume session before the market exits a catalyst vacuum starting tomorrow with key inflation and consumption data. NY Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations noted consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rose in April at both the one- and five-year time horizons.
US equities ended higher this week and largely in waiting mode ahead of next week's CPI reading. Market navigated a largely catalyst-free trading period this week with depressed volumes as it waits for next week's April CPI reading. There were both bullish and bearish narratives throughout the week. With Friday's nonfarm payrolls report below consensus, this week's claims numbers further alleviated some concerns around the economy heating up rather than cooling.
US equities ended higher Thursday, extending the week's upside, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq both on pace for third-straight weekly gains after three-straight weekly declines. The market had a generally constructive tone today, though there is still a lot of anticipation for CPI next week. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 231K after weeks near 210K, while continuing claims were in line.
US equities ended mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing up 44bps, while the S&P500 finished flat and the Nasdaq down 18bps. Fed's Collins said getting to 2% target inflation may take longer than expected. Today's auction of $42B of 10-year notes tailed after yesterday's well-received 3Y auction; with $25B in 30Y bonds coming up for sale tomorrow. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stepped up warning over weak yen's impact on monetary policy.
US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday in a fairly uneventful trading session. The Fed's Kashkari said he questions policy restrictiveness given inflation data and was the latest central banker to talk about a higher neutral. Today's auction of $58B of 3Y notes stopped through with help from solid foreign demand.
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending at session highs. Not much behind today's upside with few catalysts, no real change to any of the key themes, and market volumes low. The Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey said slightly more banks tightened C&I loan standards in Q1 and saw weaker C&I, industrial and residential real estate demand quarter over quarter.
Stocks were higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erased early-week declines off of relatively dovish Fed takeaways and an April payrolls report that added some support to the soft landing theme. Wednesday's May FOMC meeting ended with no change to the policy rate as expected, holding at 5.25-5.50%. Data this week offered some mixed takeaways.
US equities finished solidly higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The simplest excuses for today's more optimistic tone are dovish takeaways from Powell's Fed comments yesterday and the lower-rate backdrop. Q1 productivity undershot expectations while unit labor costs up at a 4.7% SAAR (though up 1.8% across last four quarters).
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the market selling off into the close, after a big post-Powell boost; Dow Jones finished +23bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 34bps and 33bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and announced a larger-than-expected reduction in Treasury runoff caps from $60B to $25B, starting in June. ISM manufacturing index missed and moved back into contraction territory. JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected. April ADP private payrolls were ahead of consensus.
US equities ended lower Tuesday, near worst levels, with stocks more than erasing Monday's modest gains. Market was on the defensive today after hotter Q1 ECI data sparked a rise in Treasury yields. Growth concerns also in the mix after weakest consumer confidence print since July 2022 and lowest Chicago PMI since November 2022. Earnings a mixed bag ahead of some additional big tech reports over the next couple of days.
US equities ended higher Monday, just off best levels, in a mostly uneventful day of trading. The market gave up some strength in the later afternoon after the US Treasury released Q2 borrowing estimates that were marginally higher than the January estimate. Another big earnings week is ahead with 175 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.
US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P breaking a streak of three straight weekly declines and the Nasdaq up after four weeks down. Corporate earnings were a big part of the week's narrative, with investors taking in reports from 158 S&P constituents--including several highly anticipated megacap tech firms. April flash PMIs came in broadly below consensus, reflecting an overall reduction in orders for the first time in six months and companies scaling back employment for the first time in nearly four years.
US equities ended lower Thursday, just off best levels as market regained some sharp early-morning losses. The market shook off some of the overhang from disappointing tech earnings and stagflation worries sparked by this morning's economic data. The first read for Q1 GDP came in below consensus at a 1.6% SAAR, with the release noting increased consumer spending, but weaker private inventory investment.
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, little changed after a strong start to week, with the Dow Jones down 11 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 2bps and 10bps respectively. March headline and core durable goods orders beat though February revised down across the board. Today's $70B auction of five-year notes tailed after yesterday's strong two-year note auction. Visa was helped by accelerating US volumes.
US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Momentum, growth, long duration, small-caps, and lower quality were the big factor beneficiaries. Bounce continued today with help from lower rates/weaker dollar in the wake of softer flash PMI data. Some better earnings takeaways, particularly from several of the higher-profile names also helping.
US equities ended higher Monday, off best levels. Market bounce seems to be gaining traction amid talks that recent selloff is more technical than fundamental. While macro is quiet, micro has very busy with approximately 40% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report this week.
US equities ended mostly lower this weekas the market struggled to shake off more hawkish repricing of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. Recent Fedspeak supplied ongoing support for higher-for-longer rate narrative with Powell noting this week recent data has shown lack of further progress on inflation. Beyond more hawkish Fed commentary and volatile geopolitics, some other bearish narratives from this week included a big retail sales beat, flagging AI tailwinds as NVDA and SOX are both in corrections, stretched systematic long positioning, and spiking volatility with the VIX at six-month highs.
US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. For the second straight day, the market's bounce attempt ran out of gas, though not much behind today's weakness, with rates the easiest excuse as the 2Y is back near year to date highs. The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index notably improved month over month, hitting its highest level since April 2022, while employment remained in contraction.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 12bps, 58bps, and 115bps respectively. Today's $13B 20Y auction stronger than expected after last week's string of weak auctions. Latest Fed Beige Book said economy expanded slightly, while price increases were little changed since late February, but consumer spending reports were mixed. Reports Biden will propose a big hike in tariffs on China steel and aluminum.
US equities finished mostly lower in up-and-down Tuesday trading. S&P ended down for a third-straight session with equal-weight S&P a notable laggard to the official index. Tone continued to be driven by hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations alongside solid economic data and sticky inflation. Another busy day of Fedspeak with Powell noting recent data shows lack of further progress on inflation.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels. Some post-bell strength began reversing early in the session, and stocks came under pressure for much of the afternoon. March retail sales beat, while ex-autos and fuel and control group sales also ahead.
US equities were lower as the S&P 500 finished down for a second-straight week, while the Nasdaq capped off a third-straight weekly decline, and its fifth in the past six weeks. The biggest story of the week revolved around inflation data. Several pieces of the bullish arguments remain intact, particularly early earnings season takeaways that suggest a firmer macro backdrop and strong early beat rates.
US equities ended mostly higher in Thursday trading, just off best levels, after shaking off early-morning weakness. In-line core PPI print provided some relief following a third straight hotter core CPI reading that drove a meaningful – and further – hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations. Renewed momentum and growth outperformance is the other big story, with some likely help from the recent flurry of AI headlines and upbeat sell-side research.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though off worst levels that followed this morning's CPI report, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 109bps, 95bps, and 84bps respectively. Risk off on hotter CPI prints, with both headline and core CPI increasing 0.40% m/m in March, ahead of expectations. Today's 10Y auction weaker than expected, following yesterday's sale of 3-year notes that also tailed. Crude hit session highs after report US and allies believe an Iran missile strike on Israel is imminent.
US equities ended mostly higher in Tuesday trading, losing early morning gains around midday before recovering some into the close. The market is in waiting mode for several potential catalysts later this week, particularly the March CPI on Wednesday. NFIB small business optimism declined to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the 27th consecutive month below the 50-year average, with inflation cited as biggest problem.
US equities ended narrowly mixed in Monday's trading session with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq hovering around unchanged though small caps outperformed. The NY Fed one-year inflation expectations were unchanged for third-straight month, though increased at the 3Y horizon. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee commented today that recent jobs data confirms that the economy is strong, and noted late last week that he sees continued high inflation in housing services as the biggest danger to the inflation picture.
Major US equity indices were down for the week, though helped by a solid post-NFP gain on Friday. The week's big theme was the notable backup in Treasury yields driven by some firmer economic data (particularly a strong March jobs report and a hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading). It was also another week overflowing with Fedspeak, again centered on an appearance by Chair Powell and again doing little to shift the broad narrative of a possible start to rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, carrying some strength through midday before reversing in the afternoon. The market reverted to a risk-off atmosphere this afternoon, with some blame going to increasing Middle East tensions. Weekly initial claims rose faster than consensus, and the prior week’s was revised up, while continuing claims came in lighter than forecast.
US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, ending off best levels after some late-session volatility, with the Dow Jones closing down 11bps, while the S&P and Nasdaq closed +11bps and 23bps respectively. , ISM services printed at 51.4, below consensus 52.7. New-orders component pulled back and prices paid hit lowest level since March 2020. ADP private payrolls were up 184K in March, outstripping the 150K consensus, with continued strength in leisure/hospitality. Paramount was up on a report about exclusive deal talks with Skydance.
US equities closed down in Tuesday trading, remaining fairly rangebound for much of the session and ending not far from worst levels. Rate backup remains the big story, with the blame largely gone to the firmer ISM manufacturing print yesterday, though there is also some focus on supply, higher commodities prices, and deficit concerns. February’s JOLTS job openings was down slightly month over month but in line with consensus.
US equities closed mostly lower, though off worst levels, in fairly uneventful Monday trading. It’s been a very quiet session to start April and Q2, though there are a few moving pieces in view coming out of the long holiday weekend, including momentum, growth, and tech outperformance after lagging in March and last week as breadth improved. In macro news, ISM manufacturing unexpectedly moved into expansion, snapping a 16-month streak of contractionary readings in March.
US equities ended mostly higher this week with strong outperformance in the Russell 2000 and some minor weakness in the Nasdaq. The market navigated a shortened trading week deprived of any meaningful catalysts with most looking to PCE this Friday and Nonfarm payrolls next Friday. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat slightly with consumers noting they were confident inflation will continue to soften, and expect their financial situations to improve over the coming months.
US equities finished higher in uneventful Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 122bps, 86bps, and 51bps respectively. Nothing on the US economic calendar and big event was a well-received auction of $43B in 7Y notes. Spanish headline inflation accelerated in March. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki ramped up warning on potential yen intervention.
US equities finished down in Tuesday trading, selling off in the last half hour of the session after remaining positive but rangebound for most of the day. Thursday marks month- and quarter-end and pension fund rebalancing has been flagged as a potential overhang for equities. February durable-goods orders rose after two consecutive monthly declines; core orders beat though January revised lower.
US equities ended mostly lower in a quiet, rangebound Monday session with modest downside in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq after capping off the best weekly gain of the year on Friday. There was a bit of Fedspeak, though nothing shifted the narrative. February new home sales came in a bit weaker than consensus.
US equities finished mixed in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow ending down 0.20%, and the S&P and Nasdaq finishing up 0.12% and 0.29%. Big tech was mostly higher, reversing some of yesterday's pullback, though market breadth was negative overall. Autos, semis, utilities, software, MedTech and life sciences, trucking, and telecom were some of the other areas of strength. Airlines, media, banks, homebuilders, energy, auto suppliers, machinery, industrial conglomerates, and tech hardware were among the laggards. Treasuries were firmer with curve steepening. The dollar was better on the euro and yen crosses but little changed vs sterling. Gold finished down 0.1% while bitcoin futures finished up 0.5%. WTI crude ended down 0.4% after Tuesday's near-2% gain hit its highest level in nearly ten months on Tuesday. In macroeconomic news, Headline August CPI saw its largest monthly increase since June 2022, which was as expected, while Core was a bit hotter than consensus. Looking ahead, August PPI comes out tomorrow and preliminary September consumer sentiment (and inflation expectations) are out Friday.
US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing down 0.05%, 0.57%, and 1.04%, respectively. Big tech, especially Apple (AAPL), was a drag after helping drive the market higher yesterday. Software, networking and communications, HPCs, beverages, freight and logistics, homebuilders, building materials, and MedTech were among the other laggards. Meanwhile, energy, banks, insurers, credit cards, airlines, rails, and casual diners held up better. Treasuries were mostly firmer with some curve flattening after another backup in yields on Monday. The dollar index finished up 0.2% with gains on the major crosses. Gold ended down 0.6% while bitcoin futures ended up 4.5% following a 3.5% selloff in the prior session. WTI crude settled up 1.8%, ending near 10-month highs after the OPEC report highlighted a growing supply deficit. In macroeconomic news, the NFIB small business optimism index slipped to 91.3 in August from 91.9 in July, marking the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Otherwise, there was not much else in today's headlines, as the market still seems to largely be in waiting mode for CPI tomorrow and then PPI, retail sales, ECB and UAW contract expiration on Thursday.
US equities were higher in Monday trading trading as the S&P and Nasdaq finished near best levels and ended back above their 50dmas after slipping below last week. There's big week ahead with CPI, PPI, and retail sales on the US economic calendar, the AAPL iPhone event, Barclays Financial Services Conference, ECB meeting and China activity data. The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed 1Y inflation expectations are up 0.1pp to 3.6% though the 3Y fell, while views on current and future household finances deteriorated.
US equities were down this week, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing the week down 75 bps, 129 bps, and 193 bps respectively and the S&P and Nasdaq dropping back below their 50-day moving averages. It was a generally risk-off week in the market, though there was a big focus on a stronger-than-expected read for August ISM Services. Fedspeak stressed that the path forward would remain dependent on the incoming data. The big corporate story of the week was the 6.0% slide in Apple, which faced headwinds from a China government ban.
US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending off session lows. The big development today has been a Bloomberg report about China looking to expand their iPhone ban. Initial claims came in lower than expected, falling to levels not seen since February following a stronger employment reading in ISM services yesterday.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 57bps, 70bps, and 106bps respectively. ISM services surprised to the upside. Fed's Beige Book said growth was modest in July and August. Fed's Collins said she does not think the central bank is there yet on containing inflation, but also noted may be very near, or at, peak rates.
US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted a second-straight weekly gain, while the small-cap Russell 2000 broke a four-week streak of declines and posted the best weekly performance since March. The major averages were all higher this week, with strength tabbed in large part to the big pullback in Treasury yields as the week's economic data releases showed a cooling of labor market conditions.
US equities were mixed to lower Thursday, ending off best levels, with the Dow and S&P ending down 0.48% and 0.16%, respectively, and the Nasdaq ending up 0.11%. Retail, growth software, semis, athletic apparel and sporting goods, autos, and regional banks were some of the better performers. Healthcare saw fairly broad-based weakness. Some of the other laggards included Dollar stores, transports, restaurants and drug stores. Today there was a big pickup in earnings activity with tech, consumer and retail in focus. Overall, there were several moving pieces in focus on Thursday, though it was also a waiting game for nonfarm payrolls and ISM manufacturing tomorrow following a nice run-up earlier in the week.
US equities were higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 11 bps, 38 bps, and 54 bps respectively. ADP private payrolls came in softer than expected for August. Q2 GDP was revised down on weaker inventory and trade contributions. August pending-home sales rose vs consensus for a monthly pullback. Apple confirmed September 12th as the date for the expected launch of its iPhone 15 models.
US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending near session highs, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.85%, 1.45%, and 1.74%, respectively. Big tech saw solid gains across the board. Semis, department stores, growth software, networking, metals, airlines, and telecom were some of the other outperformers. There were few decliners, though refiners, staples, utilities, rails, and A&D were among the underperformers. It was very quiet once again in terms of macro headlines. There has still been an outsized focus on China stimulus measures, with China state banks reportedly set to cut rates on bulk of the country's $5.3T of existing mortgages.
US equities were higher in very quiet late-summer Monday trading, ending just off best levels. Upside is likely a function of the fairly balanced messaging from Powell last week, renewed peak Fed chatter, rate stabilization, M&A pickup, China stimulus and dampened positioning and sentiment indicators. Meanwhile, a light day of data included the August Dallas Fed Index, which beat and improved for a third-straight month.
US equities were mostly higher this week. Upside was tabbed to peak Fed optimism, including Chair Powell not offering any view on a higher neutral rate or push back against 2024 rate cuts. Nvidia earnings was the big corporate story of the week. Results exceeded very elevated expectations, while the company guided Q3 revenue more than 25% ahead of consensus and announced a $25B buyback program.
US equities were lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. The S&P 500 finished below the 4400 level, finishing down 1.35%, while the Dow and Nasdaq finished down 1.08% and 1.87%, respectively. Megacap tech was mostly weaker. Semis, growth software, streaming, autos, pharma and global miners also trailed. Banks, insurance, containers and packaging, tobacco and drug distributors were among the few outperformers. Elsewhere, strong earnings results from Nvidia (NVDA) was the big story early on, though unfortunately the blowout was unable to provide a sustainable tailwind to some of the other high-profile beneficiaries of the AI hype. It was very quiet from a macro headline perspective, apart from chatter about Fedspeak going into tomorrow’s Jackson Hole.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 54 bps, 110 bps, and 159 bps respectively. August flash manufacturing and services PMIs both missed expectations and saw contractions in new orders. July new home sales were a bit better. Busy day of retail earnings with very mixed takeaways adding to the recent pickup in debate about the degree of consumer resilience. Today's rebound tabbed to big the Treasury rally, even though some of that was driven by softer flash PMI data out of Europe.
US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading and ended just off worst levels, though the downside was fairly limited. The Dow and S&P finished down 0.51% and 0.28%, respectively, with Nasdaq finished up 0.06%. Department stores were the worst performers in a weak retail space. Regional banks, semis, food, credit cards, airlines, and med-tech were some of other the laggards. Meanwhile, toys, casinos, builders, video games, streaming, hospitals and steel outperformed. Overall, disappointing retail earnings takeaways, dampened AI momentum, renewed ratings scrutiny on banks and some semblance of rate stabilization are a few of the issues in the market today. Looking ahead, the market is still largely in waiting mode ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings release tomorrow post-close and Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole on Friday.
US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. It was a quiet session with nothing incremental in terms of market narrative. The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium is on tap for Friday with more discussion in the press over the weekend about the upside risk surrounding the neutral rate due to higher productivity and increased deficits.
US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for a third-straight week. The big story this week was the ongoing backup in yields, with the 10Y yield hitting 4.33% this week, the highest since 2007, while 10Y TIPS yields hit the highest since 2009. There wasn't much new from this week's July FOMC meeting minutes, which contained no hints at future policy actions, though officials warned of significant upside risk to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq ending down 0.84%, 0.78%, and 1.17%, respectively. Big tech was largely lower. PBM names and drug distributors were the big laggards. Airlines, homebuilders, restaurants, and leisure names underperformed as well. Networking, search, credit cards, pharma, defense, fertilizers, commodity chemicals, and China tech beat the tape, though energy fared best amid a crude rebound. Despite some early strength, there was no real change to the market narrative. Looking ahead, there is nothing on the economic calendar for Friday. Fed's Jackson Hole conference is the macro highlight late next week, though there is a lot of skepticism Powell will offer any explicit near-term policy signals ahead of September’s FOMC meeting.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending near session lows. The Path of least resistance remains lower despite some earlier signs of stabilization from better retail earnings and US economic data. While there was no surprises in FOMC minutes, the tightening bias is still intact and next week's Jackson Hole conference is too soon for any explicit peak policy signal from Powell.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading and ended near session lows, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down 1.02%, 1.16%, and 1.14%, respectively. All sectors were lower, though commodity equities and machinery were among the worst performers on the latest China data disappointments. Banks were hit by cautious comments from Fitch, with credit cards, life insurers, transports, and autos being some of the other underperformers. Homebuilders were a standout on Buffett stake news, and Pharma was another relative outperformer. The clearest excuse for today’s pullback seems to be the latest growth concerns out of China and the market's continued disappointment with the magnitude of policy response, even with the asymmetric rate cut today.
US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 7 bps, 58 bps, and 105 bps respectively. A Fairly uneventful session ahead of retail earnings, retail sales and FOMC minutes this week and Fed's Jackson Hole conference next week. This week brings the start of the July quarter reporting season for retailers. US Steel rejected an unsolicited offer from Cleveland Cliffs.
US equities were mostly lower this week, with most major indices adding to last week's declines. There were few surprises in Thursday's largely in-line release of July CPI, with the headline and core measures printing monthly increases just below 0.2% for the second straight month. More than 90% of the S&P 500 index has now reported, with members continuing to report earnings marginally better than expected (but generally not seeing positive earnings surprises rewarded).
US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading, but ended well off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.15%, 0.03%, and 0.12%, respectively. Big tech was largely higher, and software, networking and communications, managed care, exchanges, retail, travel and leisure, and telecom were among the outperformers. Energy, homebuilders, auto suppliers, industrial metals, fertilizers, and machinery were some of the laggards. For macroeconomic news, July headline and core CPI were both up 0.2% m/m, in line with estimates, and core was up 4.7% y/y.
US equities were lower in a Wednesday trading session that saw some fairly large intraday swings, ending near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 54 bps, 70 bps, and 117 bps respectively. No big directional drivers in play ahead of July CPI tomorrow. Preview commentary has highlighted expected support for the broader disinflation narrative. Penn Gaming was up on its ESPN deal.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though the market came off worst levels through the afternoon. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all finished down 0.45%, 0.42%, and 0.79%, respectively. Most sectors were down, with banks, asset managers, semis, retail, software, paper and packaging and food among the worst laggards. Big tech was also mostly lower. Looking ahead, the market awaits July CPI data out on Thursday morning, with the Street looking for a 0.2% m/m increase in the headline reading.
US equities finished higher in fairly quiet Monday trading, ending near best levels. There were no big directional drivers in play and still a lot of push and pull surrounding the big themes. CPI previews (out on Thursday) and Manheim used-vehicle index fit with the disinflation narrative, while comments from Fed's Williams were dovish.
US equities were lower this week as the S&P 500 was down for the first week in four, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq trailed the broader S&P. This week saw a big yield curve steepening move with the 10Y yield up over 15 bp, pushing beyond 4.10% for the first time since November, though the short end of the curve rallied amid the latest round of positive macro surprise momentum. This week also saw Fitch downgrade its US long-term credit rating.
US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, though ending off worst levels. S&P 500 posted its third-straight decline, finishing down 0.26% and on pace to break its four-straight weekly gains. Similarly, the Dow finished down 0.20% and the Nasdaq 0.11%. Airlines, homebuilders, restaurants, casinos, machinery, MedTech, REITs, utilities, and telecom were some of the laggards. Big tech was largely better, though EVs, retail and apparel, energy, industrial metals, banks, and life insurers fared the best. There was a massive volume of earnings today, now that nearly 80% of the S&P 500 has reported.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending near their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 98bps, 138bps, and 217bps respectively. Risk off chalked up to the surprise US credit rating downgrade by Fitch. ADP private payrolls came in well ahead of consensus, while pay growth for job-stayers was the slowest pace since November. On the earnings front, volume remains elevated and more than two-thirds of S&P 500 has now reported.
US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, though the Dow finished up 0.20%, while the S&P and Nasdaq finished down 0.27% and 0.43%, respectively. Today's fairly uneventful session came after some modest upside on Monday’s session that capped off a strong July, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising for a fifth straight month. Today’s outperformers included networking, AG machinery, building products, refiners, homebuilders, and auto-parts retailers. Airlines, EVs, energy, banks, MedTech, biotech, fertilizers, restaurants, apparel, cruise lines, and telecom were among the laggards, and big tech was mixed.
US equities were modestly higher in very quiet Monday trading, ending just off best levels. The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey said demand weakened and credit tightened for all loan categories, in line with Fed Chair Powell's preview last week. Chicago PMI saw slight sequential improvement in July, largely in line with consensus.
US equities finished higher in Friday trading as the major averages all capped off solid weekly gains, including the S&P 500 up for a third-straight week. Several factors likely behind the renewed push higher, including an overdone BoJ fade, disinflation traction, and upbeat earnings takeaways. June core PCE was in line, decelerating from May and now up 4.1% y/y. Just over 50% of S&P 500 has reported, with 81% of reporters beating consensus EPS expectations.
Market sell-off this afternoon after the S&P ticked above 4600 points earlier. Peak Fed discussion remains a tailwind despite Powell leaving room for further hikes this year. A busy morning for U.S. economic data including Q2 GDP up +0.4pp to 2.4%, initial claims beating and continuing claims lowest since January. In earnings, Meta proved standout on strong engagement trends, new product monetization, and AI improvements. While Southwest Airlines drove industry weakness as analysts concerned that fuel and labor costs will add further margin pressure through year-end.
US equities finished narrowly mixed in Wednesday trading, with some choppiness following the afternoon's Fed updates; the Dow Jones finishing up 23bps, while the S&P500, and Nasdaq closed down 2bps, and 12bps respectively. The Fed raised rates by 25bp today after its June skip, as expected, bringing the funds rate to 5.25-5.50%, and Fed staff is no longer forecasting a recession. Light day of US data included a June new home sales miss, breaking three-straight monthly gains.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, though ending off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 0.10%, 0.28%, and 0.61%, respectively. The DJIA logged its 12th consecutive gain, just shy of the all-time record of 13, set in 1987. Overall, earnings drove a lot of the big moves today. It was the usual mixed bag of takeaways and expectations and investor sentiment continue to play a key role. Just under 79% of reporters have exceeded consensus EPS expectations, better than the 77% five-year average.
US equities were higher in very quiet Monday trading, ending just off best levels. US flash manufacturing PMI beat, breaking three-straight monthly declines and was the highest print since April. US flash services PMI missed, but it is still in expansion.
US equities were mostly higher this week, with the S&P 500 rising for the fourth week in five, though the Nasdaq was modestly lower. There were a number of moving pieces this week. Several high-profile earnings disappointments (NFLX, TSLA) added scrutiny around big tech valuations and the high bar following outsized YTD gains. Overbought conditions and extended sentiment, along with fading short covering tailwinds, were also part of the bearish narrative. However, there was also some optimism around a broadening of the market rally, more disinflation/soft landing evidence, positive earnings/guidance revisions, and liquidity fears which continue to fade. Next week is busy with the July FOMC meeting and plenty of big earnings reports and macro data points.
US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading and ended just off worst levels. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq were mixed, ending up 0.47% and down 0.68% and 2.05%, respectively. For macroeconomic news, initial jobless claims beat consensus, though they have reached their lowest since mid-May. On the other hand, continuing claims missed, though they are now at their highest level since early June. Philly Fed manufacturing index missed as well, though prices paid index fell again. Similarly, June existing home sales missed, though pace of price declines have moderated since May. In other news, the Fed remains in quiet period ahead of next week's meeting, and there was nothing particularly controversial in the FOMC previews as the Fed is still widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike. Finally, it has been very quiet outside the US with more headlines about the underwhelming policy support measures out of China.
US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, though finished off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 31 bps, 24 bps, and 3 bps respectively. June housing starts slipped more than expected, and Building permits undershot consensus as well. The latest Reuters survey revealed economists increasingly expect next week's rate hike will be the Fed's last. Goldman Sachs results were noisy, mixed, and Bloomberg reported Apple is working on generative AI tools.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq up 1.12%, 0.84%, and 0.96%, respectively. Small-caps had another strong session. Additionally, select big tech, banks and investment banks, credit cards, energy, managed care, fertilizers, industrial metals, machinery, airlines, trucking, and travel and leisure were some of the other outperformers. Meanwhile, A&D, waste, MedTech, semis, grocers, beverages, and utilities were among the laggards. Besides that, it was pretty quiet from a headlines perspective. Bank of America July Global Fund Manager Survey said sentiment remains bearish, though it also flagged soft-landing expectations and a better profit outlook. Looking ahead, the market awaits the important upcoming batch of megacap tech earnings starting this Friday and continuing in the next several weeks.
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 22bps, 39bps, and 93bps respectively. China Q2 GDP came in softer than expected, as did June retail sales. Russia halted the UN-brokered grain deal with Ukraine. Earnings activity continues to pick up this week with 60 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report.
US equities higher this week, more than erasing last week's declines despite some pullback Friday. June CPI was the overarching focus of the week, coming in softer than consensus for both headline and core. Still, this and other data did little to shift expectations for near-term Fed policy. Q2 earnings began with four big banks Friday, and while all posted beats, analysts had some areas of concern.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending up for a fourth-straight session. Headline and core PPI both came in cooler than expected, increasing 0.1% m/m in June. Initial claims were below expectations, in line with the still strong labor market. The data is still unlikely to push the Fed off of a July rate hike, though the first rate cut is now priced for Jan-2024.
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 25bps, 74bps, and 115bps respectively. Softer June CPI report was today's major focus; however, despite softer print, Fedspeak following CPI was hawkish. Not much of note in the latest Beige Book report from the Fed reflecting a slight increase in economic activity and mixed perceptions about corporate pricing power.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off best levels after rallying in the last hour of trading. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished up 0.93%, 0.67%, and 0.55%, respectively. Looking ahead, the market awaits the highly anticipated June CPI out tomorrow morning. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 0.1% in May to 0.3% in June, though annualized CPI is expected to fall 0.9 points m/m to 3.1% in June, which would be lowest since March of 2021 and down from its June 2022 cyclical peak of 9.1%. Meanwhile, Core CPI is expected to tick down 0.1 points to 0.3% m/m, while annualized core is expected to fall 0.3 points to 5.0%, which would be lowest since November of 2021.
US equities finished higher in relatively uneventful Monday trading following some Friday weakness that capped a down week for the major indices. Fed policy is the key focus ahead of the 25-26 Jul FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to deliver a 25bp hike after June's hold. Much of this week's focus is being pulled ahead to key inflation data and the start of bank earnings season on Friday. Fedspeak was also in view today.
US equities were lower this week, though downside was fairly modest despite some cautious Fed expectations and a big backup in yields. The big story of the week was the Treasury selloff that sent 2Y yields back above 5%, hitting the highest level since 2007 on Thursday before coming off on Friday. The week's backup in yields reflects bets that Fed will hold rates higher for longer after hot batch of economic data.
US equities finished broadly lower on Thursday afternoon the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all closing roughly around (1%) below.
A big beat for ADP private payrolls, rising nearly 500K ahead of the 250K consensus estimates. Although job growth came out stronger, it did little to assuage concerns about the economy, rather playing into the need for a more aggressive Fed/global tightening cycle. Bulls still looking to a soft landing and disinflation traction as key talking points.
In terms of specific companies, META formally launched a new Twitter competitor called Threads and Jet Blue said it would end its alliance with American Airlines in an attempt to get the DoJ to reconsider its opposition to a deal with Spirit Airlines.
US equities finished lower in largely uneventful Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 38bps, 20bps, and 18bps respectively. FOMC minutes release largely a nonevent. May factory orders undershot consensus. Geopolitical tensions in focus amid reports the US is preparing to curtail Chinese companies' access to cloud-computing services.
US equities were little changed in a shortened Monday trading session after rallying last week with all of the major indexes up over 2%. There has also been a lot of discussion about how favorable 1H performance bodes well for the rest of the year. ISM manufacturing slipped further into contraction in June, though the prices paid metric came in softer than expected, providing more support for the disinflation theme.
US equities higher this week, with market performance underpinned by continued economic optimism and strong economic data, which outweighed fears of higher-for-longer Fed policy. Still, at the ECB conference in Portugal, Chair Powell said he wouldn't take the idea of hikes at consecutive meetings off the table.
US equities finished mostly higher in relatively quiet Thursday trading. A strong batch of economic data this morning affirmed bullish narratives around a tight labor market and resilient consumer. There was no surprise as all banks "passed" the Fed's stress test with takeaways highlighting the better performance on the part of the larger banks. Economic data is the other big area of focus as weekly initial jobless claims came in below consensus.
US equities finished mixed in fairly directionless Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing down 22bps and 4bps respectively while the Nasdaq closed up 27bps. Geopolitical tensions were in focus again on reporting that the White House is considering new restrictions on AI chip exports to China. The ECB commentary out of the Sintra conference remains hawkish, while Powell said not to rule out the Fed moving at consecutive meetings.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, near best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq up 0.73%, 1.20%, and 1.73%, respectively. Today's strength comes after US equities finished mostly lower on Monday and nearly reverses last week’s declines. Big tech rebounded after a weak Monday, and other outperformers included homebuilders, airlines, autos, software, crypto, media, Chinese internets, banks, retail, and semis. That said, there were still a few pockets of downside though, including drug stores, healthcare providers, healthcare distributors, biotech and life sciences, A&D, and precious metals miners. Overall, today's upside can be tabbed to soft landing optimism after a strong batch of economic data, though the market is still waiting on coming key June economic data along with the start of Q2 earnings season in the next couple weeks.
US equities lower this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq snapping respective five and eight-week streaks of gains. There were few changes to the broader themes in the market, with higher-for-longer Fed policy and extended positioning and sentiment the crux of the bearish narrative, offset by soft landing expectations and disinflation traction on the bull side.
US equities mostly higher in uneventful Thursday trading. The recent defensive tone is largely being chalked up to overbought conditoins. Initial jobless claims were unchanged at 264K, but still a bit higher than expected. Powell's second day of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee was fairly uneventful, and market pricing around the rate path was fairly stable.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, off best levels after a stalled afternoon rally attempt, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 30bps, 52bps, and 121bps respectively. Powell argued in congressional testimony that the Fed should focus on its inflation goal given how far away it is on that front. Another hotter-than-expected UK inflation print and pickup in expectations for a 50 bp rate hike from the Bank of England on Thursday. FTC sued Amazon over allegations it tricked customers into signing up for Prime.
US equities finished lower in a very quiet Tuesday trading, though finishing well off worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down 0.72%, 0.47%, and 0.16%, respectively. Laggards included energy, MedTech, industrial and precious metals, chemicals, banks, credit cards, media, and China tech. Conversely, big tech was mostly higher, along with managed care, healthcare distributors, waste, homebuilders, cruise lines, apparel retailers, and beverages faring better. Overall, it was a very quiet session with no real changes to key themes. Looking ahead, the market awaits to digest Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House tomorrow.
US equities were higher this week, with the S&P logging its fifth consecutive week of gains, while the Nasdaq was up for the eighth straight week. The Fed voted Wednesday to hold rates steady for the first time after a 10-meeting hiking campaign that brought 500bp of tightening, though the 50bp rise in the 2023 forecast on the dot plot was more hawkish than expected. A number of economic reports brought support for the disinflation narrative.
Yesterday’s hawkish pause in the federal funds rate continues to reverberate throughout the market with Chairman Powell seeming more supportive of soft-landing scenarios via a gradual cooling in the labor market.
China’s May activity data came in a bit softer than expected and the PBoC cut its one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 10bp. In response, Chinese state media called for coordinated macro policies to boost demand.
Investors can expect the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment report out in the morning.
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading after some choppiness following the June FOMC meeting, with the Dow Jones closing down 68bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 8bps and 39bps respectively. The Fed left the funds rate unchanged at 5.00-5.25%, as expected; however, the median dot in the SEP jumped 50bp to 5.6% vs the 25bps expected, implying two more rate hikes. Headline PPI came in cooler than expected for May, falling to the slowest annual pace since December of 2020, and Core PPI print was in line.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, having stayed in largely the same range throughout the session. The CPI is out of the way while the Fed is on tap for tomorrow, with the Fed expected to maintain the fed funds target range at 5.0-5.25% at the June FOMC meeting. May CPI was largely in line with expectations with y/y headline growth the slowest since April of 2021.
US equities finished higher, ending near best levels in uneventful Monday trading. We have a big macro week ahead with the CPI and Fed. The ECB and BoJ meetings, along with bank presentations at the Morgan Stanley conference are also expected to get attention. Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 price target from 4000 to 4500, reflecting a lower US recession probability.
US equities stronger in an extremely quiet week, with the market's attention pulled ahead to next week's May CPI report and the June FOMC meeting decision.
A relatively slow week for financial news as the market waits for CPI and FOMC meeting next week. Market dynamics still up for debate with bulls citing a low volatility backdrop, earnings, and disinflation while bears focus on a higher-for-longer Fed, liquidity headwinds, and operating leverage risks for earnings. The session also marked a day of geopolitical volatility after reports that Cuba will host a secret China spy base focusing on the U.S. A mixed bag of earnings with SMTC finishing higher while RENT, GME, OXM underperforming.
US equities were mixed in very quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones ending up 27 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 38 bps and 129 bps respectively. Another very uneventful session as the market still seems to be in waiting mode for CPI and the Fed next week. Biggest development seemed to be weaker-than-expected China May export data, and some note of surprise on the Bank of Canada rate hike.
US equities finished higher in uneventful Tuesday trading, as the major averages finished near session highs though the upside was very limited. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished up 0.03%, 0.23%, and 0.36%, respectively. Nothing new on the US economic calendar for today and initial claims coming this Thursday are the only other meaningful release this week from a market perspective. The market is still largely devoid of big directional drivers. Overall, it has been quiet from a headline perspective given the dearth of key economic data and no Fedspeak due to the blackout period heading into next week's FOMC meeting.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending off best levels from the midday. No major macro drivers were at play ahead of what is expected to be a calm week with only a few economic releases and no Fedspeak amid the blackout period into next week's FOMC meeting. ISM services missed, as it reported the lowest since December with employment falling in contraction territory, though the prices index fell to the lowest since May-20.
The major averages were all higher this week, with the S&P 500 posting a third-straight weekly gain and Nasdaq up for a sixth-straight week, matching the longest streak since Dec-19 into Jan-20. Upside was driven in part by a repricing around June Fed expectations, as markets cut the odds of a June rate hike by nearly 50 bp to ~30%. However, the market pricing for the December median fed funds rate continues to hold around 5%, suggesting no rate cuts by year-end. The Senate also passed debt ceiling legislation on Thursday, and will be signed by President Biden ahead of the 5-Jun deadline.
The market continues to deal with a ton of moving pieces after it shook off yesterday's weakness in a risk-on session.
Multiple reports have discussed the increased likelihood of a June pause from the Fed, though they also highlighted expectations for further tightening after that.
ADP private payrolls came in well ahead of consensus with the May ISM manufacturing index a touch weaker.
Outside of earnings, Goldman Sachs flagged expectations for a tough environment and guided trading revenue below consensus.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq finishing down 41bps, 61bps, and 63bps respectively. Fed officials offered support for a June pause. April JOLTS showed job openings well above estimates. Debt ceiling deal looks on track to pass the House. Latest Fed Beige Book said economic activity was little changed from April's report.
US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, with S&P holding around unchanged mark, the Dow down .15%, and the Nasdaq up .32%. Tech continued its Friday rally with further AI-driven momentum. It was fairly quiet from a macroeconomic perspective today. Elsewhere, the market awaits news on Washington’s debt ceiling increase. The White House and House Speaker McCarthy reached a tentative debt ceiling deal over the weekend. The House is expected to vote on Wednesday, with a Senate vote to follow.
US equities were mixed this week, with the Dow Jones finishing down 4bps, while the S&P500 rose 32bps, and the Nasdaq jumped 251bps on tech upside driven by AI optimism following nVidia’s earnings results. Debt ceiling negotiators neared a deal to raise the debt ceiling for two years. Another big market repricing toward the Fed's higher-for-longer outlook amid hawkish Fedspeak and data that supported the soft landing narrative. Retailer earnings offered mixed takeaways.
US equities were mixed in Thursday trading, with the Dow Jones ending down 11bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 88bps and 171bps respectively. AI optimism the big story today with the blowout July quarter guidance from NVidia. Reports the White House and Republicans are discussing a debt limit deal that would lift the ceiling through 2024. On the data front, initial claims came in lower than expected. First quarter GDP growth was revised up, though PCE inflation also revised higher. Pending home sales missed.
Debt ceiling negotiations remain the major headline with McCarthy saying both sides are far apart on some issues but he believes a deal will be secured.
Fed staff continue to forecast a mild recession starting later this year given the expected further tightening in financial and bank credit conditions.
Retail outperformed, particularly after apparel reported well-received results from Abercrombie and Fitch, Kohl’s, and Urban Outfitters.
Initial jobless and continuing claims are due out in the morning.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down .69%, 1.12%, and 1.26%, respectively. The biggest decliners included steel, homebuilders, hospitals, managed care, exchanges, payment rails, semicaps, hotels, and casinos, while energy, banks, airlines, credit cards, housing-linked retail, department stores, and media and entertainment outperformed. There is still not a lot of readthrough in sector performance again. That said, the debt ceiling remains top of mind for the markets, with today's negotiating session having concluded with still no sign of progress. Looking ahead, May FOMC meeting minutes are out tomorrow at 2 pm. The minutes will likely focus on timing of Fed's expected assessment period and what factors could trigger further tightening. The market will also be scrutinizing the extent of any pushback against pivot expectations.
US equities were mostly higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, though the S&P ended off session highs and just under 4200 level. The latest US debt ceiling updates are skewing positive, with House Speaker McCarthy saying nothing has been agreed to, but said a deal could potentially be reached as soon as tonight and that it's still possible to push through Congress by 1-Jun. Meanwhile, it was another busy day of Fedspeak that provided some more hawkish takes.
US equities were higher this week, with the S&P 500 up for the first time in three weeks and breaking a six-week streak of absolute changes of less than 1%. Upside was driven by factors including optimism around a debt ceiling resolution, support for the soft landing narrative from economic data and retail earnings, and tech leadership with some positive spillover into semis and AI. Still, there was a big backup rates despite the resilient data, new debt ceiling uncertainty after some negative updates Friday, and a repricing for more hawkish Fed.
Big tech leading the gainers with FANMAGs coming in higher as Netflix outperformed on their ad-supported offering.
The Fed remains in the headlines as investors try to interpret hawkish higher-for-longer messaging with market hopes of a rate cut in the 2nd half.
In Washington, Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy said the debt limit talks are in a much better place as he sees a deal on the House floor by next week. All eyes remain on Secretary Yellen's X-date on June 1st.
US equities finished higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 124bps, 119bps, and 128bps respectively. Risk-on move was driven by some positive debt ceiling and regional banking developments. Quiet on the data front ahead of claims tomorrow. April housing starts were in line and March revised down while building permits were light.
Somewhat of a mixed bag today. Growth worries along with the weak China April activity data. In addition, debt ceiling a big overhang with McCarthy still talking about a lack of progress. Tech outperformance keeping scrutiny on weak market breadth. Also some focus on lack of follow-through behind Monday's bank bounce. Fedspeak still reflective of a tightening bias despite market expectations for a pause and quick pivot. Regulatory backdrop for big deals remains very difficult with biopharma in the crosshairs.
Mild gains today came despite some renewed concerns about economic growth following record sequential contraction in the NY Fed's Empire manufacturing survey. Headlines over the weekend highlighted some traction behind the debt ceiling negotiations and the key players are set to meet again on Tuesday. In terms of Fedspeak, there was nothing surprising in the latest batch and little that is likely to alter the calculus for a June pause.
US equities mostly lower this week, though Big Tech generated a gain for the Nasdaq and provided a notable cusion for the S&P. Economic data reflected a continued easing of inflationary pressures, though there were also some worries about how weaker data fed into recession fears. The ongoing federal debt-ceiling crisis consumed a lot of bandwidth without any concrete signs of progress; however, discussions are ongoing and there remain thoughts a deal will ultimately be found. There was also a lot of commentary on the extremely narrow market leadership offered by Big Tech.
Regional banks continue to lag while big tech finished higher on the back of Google's outperformance.
The push and pull between Fed critics and supporters remains a theme. Hard landing camp aided by inverted yield curve while soft-landing points to a tight labor market and strong Q1 earnings. April PPI numbers came in softer than expected with core PPI in line, marking the lowest annualized print since January of 2021.
In terms of specific companies, Disney with mixed takeaways as the stock hit by a miss in DTC and softer 2H margin guidance for domestic parks. Outside of earnings, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced he's hired a new CEO for X/Twitter
US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 9bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 45bps and 104bps respectively. Headline and core CPI both higher in April, largely in line with expectations, with the big takeaway seemingly the slowdown in core services excluding OER and rent to just 0.1%. The print supportive of Fed pause expectations but also Fed's higher-for-longer messaging. Debt ceiling stalemate another key topic for the market, with speculation that the most likely path revolves around a short-term reprieve that gives time to negotiate a budget deal that includes spending cuts, providing a "win" for both sides.
US equities finished lower in quiet Tuesday trading, ending just off session lows though trading rangebound and volume light. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 0.17%, 0.46%, and 0.63%, respectively. Though there was nothing specific behind today’s pullback, some higher-profile earnings underwhelmed, regional banks still cannot bounce, debt ceiling angst remains elevated, and CPI data released tomorrow looms.
US equities were narrowly mixed in very uneventful Monday trading. There was an Initial negative market reaction to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for April, though the report was largely as expected. Elsewhere, the latest NY Fed consumer survey showed 1Y inflation expectations down 0.3pp to 4.4%, though expected household spending growth is the weakest since Sep-21.
U.S. equities mostly lower this week as the S&P gave back last week's gains. However, the absolute change of the S&P index was less than 1% for a fifth-straight week. Stocks finished off the week's lows with some push and pull from a number of factors, while takeaways from the latest economic data were mixed. The May FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp rate hike to 5.0-5.25% as expected in a unanimous decision. Regional banks remain in focus, with JPM's takeover of FRC doing little to alleviate angst. With 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings continued to outperform.
Thursday's session was another day of regional bank weakness after the Fed raised rates on by a quarter point on Wednesday. PacWest led the downturn on reports that it's considering a range of strategic options including a sale. First Horizon also finished (33%) lower after regulatory issues derailed a takeover by Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Apple reported a Q2 beat on EPS and revenue and plans to increase quarterly dividends and share buyback program.
Looking ahead, the much-anticipated April employment report is due out in the morning
US equities finished mostly lower and near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 80bps, 70bps, and 46bps respectively. Fed raised rates by 25bp to 5-5.25%, which marked the median peak projection in the March dot plot. April ISM Services came in ahead on new order strength, and the ADP private payrolls also printed well ahead of estimates. Debt ceiling stalemate in focus with the Washington Post flagging the potential for a "two-track" agreement that both parties could define differently, while the NY Times noted the White House is debating a constitutional challenge to the debt limit.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though major market indices came off worst levels from midday. Regional bank weakness was the big sector story today, while other laggards included energy and crude, credit cards, asset managers, chemicals, REITs, department stores, containerboard, and media. There was some scattered strength in pharma, machinery, semis, hotels, and HPCs. Overall, there has not been any major change in the bullish and bearish talking points. It was another very high-volume earnings day with over 60% of the S&P 500 having now reported. Looking ahead, the market is in a waiting game ahead of high-profile catalysts, including the Fed announcement tomorrow, ECB on Thursday, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
US equities ended slightly lower overall in fairly uneventful Monday trading. April ISM manufacturing index beat, though prices paid index reaccelerated after dipping into contraction in the prior month, and is back to the highest level since July. The Banking sector is in focus as JPM agreed to acquire most of FRC, assuming ~$92B of deposits and substantially all of its assets.
Major week for earnings with 36% of S&P constituents reporting. Weekly leaders include tech and communication services with well-received earnings from META, MSFT, GOOGL, CMCSA, and VZ. Economic data remained a mixed bag with Q1 GDP decelerating, durable-goods above, and the Fed noting a pattern of regional weakness. In Washington, the debt-ceiling battle continues as Speaker McCarthy narrowly passed a GOP proposal expected to be dead on arrival in the Senate. Looking ahead, expect the May FOMC meeting next week with a policy statement due out on Wednesday.
US equities were sharply higher Thursday, ending near best levels, with big tech (META) providing a notable boost. The first great on Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected ahead of March PCE due out tomorrow. Very busy earnings calendar, with key metrics running above their one-year averages and thematic takeaways largely unchanged.
Major US equity indexes were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, ending just off session lows after a failed early bounce attempt, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing down 68bps and 38bps respectively, while the Nasdaq finished up 47bps. Earnings in focus with the largely positive takeaways from a number of high-profile reporters, including big tech names Microsoft and Google. Durable goods orders were notably stronger than consensus for March, though core orders contracted vs consensus for a slight gain. Republicans may now have the votes to pass their debt limit bill in the House, though it will be dead-on-arrival in the Senate.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, near worst levels, with the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq down 1.02%, 1.58%, and 1.98%, respectively. Today’s weakness follows a mixed performance in an uneventful Monday session to start the week. Notable laggards include parcel and logistics, paper and packaging, banks, energy, industrial metals, chemicals, and semis. Some of the few outperformers included Managed care, beverages, hospitals, HPCs, and pharma and biotech. There was some focus today on mixed economic data. Though the market has shaken itself out of a recent stall, with the absolute move in today's S&P 500 the second largest in April after a bout of small moves, there seems to be more negative than positive earnings reactions. That said, takeaways are mixed and expectations and cycle timing are also key factors.
US equities were narrowly mixed in Monday trading in another uneventful session. The Market was devoid of meaningful directional influence with the continued debate surrounding the big themes. The April Dallas Fed Index missed and was the lowest since July of 22, as production and employment indexes weakened m/m while prices indexes were little changed.
Major US averages mostly lower this week, with the S&P changed by less than 1% for the third straight week, the longest such streak since August 2021. While it was a fairly uneventful week of trading a number of moving pieces remain in play. The Fed overhang remains the key downside risk, while bullish narratives include easing bank stresses, tight corporate bond spreads, and easing financial conditions. The week's batch of economic data likewise offered mixed signals.
Mixed takeaways from the latest batch of earnings with tech, autos, and regional banks underperforming while casinos, road/rail, and semicap equipment finished above the tape.
In terms of the Fed, the hard versus soft landing debate rages on with earnings providing little guidance for regulators.
Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, tried to calm U.S.-China relations by stressing the U.S. has no plans to decouple its economy from China and Biden unsurprisingly rejected a Republican plan to cut government spending in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.
Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI are due out in the morning.
US equities were mixed in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 ending down 23bps and 1bps respectively while the Nasdaq closed up 3bps. House Speaker McCarthy unveiled budget bill to raise debt ceiling that includes $4.5T in total budget cuts, as well as capping budget growth at 1% per year. Not much new out of latest Fed Beige Book, which was consistent with recent economic releases showing slowing economic activity, disinflation, and easing labor-market conditions.
US equities finished somewhat lower overall in an uneventful Tuesday trading. Homebuilders, A&D, travel and tourism, industrial metals, money-center and custody banks, and apparel among the outperformers. The underperformers included Internets, REITs, pharma, biotech, chemicals, refiners, and regional banks. There was no big directional drivers in today's price action. The big overnight macro news was the better-than-expected China Q1 GDP report and mixed March activity data with retail sales being the big economic normalization beneficiary. Press reports continue to highlight CREtroubles and cautious sell-side strategist takes.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels after a late-afternoon recovery from midday lows. The NY Fed's April Empire manufacturing survey came in notably better on the headline and new-orders component; while prices paid continued to slow. The NAHB April homebuilder sentiment also beat, rising for the fourth-straight month. The debt ceiling back in the headlines with GOP Speaker McCarthy offering to raise the debt limit into next year in exchange for spending concessions.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both higher this week for the fourth week of the past five, though the major averages ended off the best weekly levels after a bit of a Friday selloff. Overall, markets finish higher for the week, with upside tabbed to a few factors, including disinflation traction after cooler than expected CPI and PPI prints. Fed updates leaned hawkish as the minutes to the March FOMC meeting showed staff projections at the time of the meeting to include a mild recession starting later this year driven by the recent banking turmoil.
Very quiet session from a headlines perspective with the March inflation print leading the newsflow. To much surprise both the headline PPI and core PPI posted declines, marking their lowest respective levels since January and Mar of 2021.
Despite the promising data and expected below-consensus retail sales out tomorrow, recent headlines expect the Fed to continue with another 25bp rate hike at their next meeting.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC that while consumers are spending, they are much more careful about their decisions.
Several economic indicators are due out in the morning including export prices, import prices, retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending near session lows after a late afternoon slide, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 11 bps, 41 bps, and 85 bps respectively. Headline CPI came in a touch cooler than expected in March, easing to the lowest annual pace since May 2021. FOMC minutes noted officials lowered their views of the peak rate on bank turmoil, while several stressed the need for policy flexibility. Fed staff projected mild recession later this year.
US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, off best levels after a late afternoon slide. Cyclicals
were among the best performers again, with homebuilders, machinery, electricals
and multis, road and railways, banks, energy, industrial metals, autos, and
retail among the best. Meanwhile, FANMAGs were all lower, along with software,
internets, IT equipment, insurance, grocers, bond proxies, and biotech. The
market awaits March CPI and FOMC minutes data tomorrow. Some notable earnings
include Apogee Enterprises before the open and Argan Inc. after the close.
Very quiet session from a headlines perspective despite a lot of moving pieces around key market themes. Big tech led the laggards with Apple, Google notable drags. Despite March's employment report supporting a soft-landing, the market remains worried about a recession due to a deeply inverted yield curve, collapsing money supply growth, tightening bank lending standards, and deteriorating consumer trends. Market preparing for Q1 earnings reports from banks on Friday.
US equities mostly higher this week. The S&P 500 is now up 15.6% since 12-Oct and the Nasdaq is up 17.6% since just 28-Dec. The path of least resistance remained to the upside as continued evidence of disinflation, a resilient labor market, and the Fed nearing the end of its rate-hiking campaign bolstered expectations for a soft landing. The FOMC raised rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's more-dovish tone surprised. On Friday, a much stronger-than-expected payrolls report muddied the picture.
The S&P closed at its highest level since the 25th of August, almost +17% above its December lows.
Jerome Powell notably less hawkish noting that the disinflationary process has started. Even more salient and unlike prior comments, Powell didn’t echo concerns about easing financial conditions and even stressed that they have tightened.
META reported a Q4 revenue beat, countering Apple, Google, and Amazon’s below consensus EPS after the close.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The market rebounded from earlier weakness that followed a big Tuesday and January rally, disappointing economic data, mixed to weaker earnings and a Fed statement in line with expectations. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp as expected and reiterated that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.
US equities higher Tuesday, finishing at best levels and recouping much of yesterday's decline. Today’s upside was also driven in part by dampened wage inflation and mixed-to-better earnings takeaways. All eyes on the Fed tomorrow.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels. Today's weakness came after stocks rallied last week with the S&P up nearly 2.5%, higher for the third week in the last four. Policy decisions from the Fed, ECB and BoE, along with inflation data out of the Eurozone, China PMIs, US ISM manufacturing and services, JOLTS, and the BLS employment report are in focus for this week.
U.S. equities finished higher this week after falling last week. The S&P closed back above the 4000 level for the first time since early December, and continued to push higher above its 200-day moving average. Corporate earnings drove a lot of this week's price action, and there were no major surprises in the week's economic releases. Next week is a big one for the market, with the focus on the FOMC meeting Wednesday, nonfarm payrolls, and many more notable earnings reports.
The Fed’s narrative remains largely the same ahead of next week’s big macro catalysts including their FOMC meeting, the ISM manufacturing index, and the payroll report.
Headlines were dominated by announcement of Q4 GDP, coming in at 2.9%, above the 2.6% consensus. Although GDP received the attention, employment data likely matters more given timeliness, emphasis in Fed policy calculus, and recent corporate layoffs.
And Tesla CEO Elon Musk tried to ease investor concerns noting that the company has seen the strongest orders year-to-date in its history. With Musk adding that the orders are almost twice the rate of production.
US equities ended mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones up +0.03%, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished down (0.02%) and (0.18%) respectively. Deep declines in the morning's trading resulted in major indices more than giving back their Monday/Tuesday gains, though risk sentiment improved from the mid-morning lows. Latest fourth quarter earnings reports seemed to act as a headwind; nevertheless, the bull case continues to be argued, helped by a "better than feared" theme across some key earnings reports.
US equities mostly modestly lower after two big up days where technicals and positioning were flagged as tailwinds. Flash PMIs bet, but are still in contraction, and there were mixed takeaways from prices amid the broader narrative around disinflation. Meanwhile, earnings as a whole were fairly underwhelming again, though some names seemed to benefit from the low-bar dynamic.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending off session highs but with the S&P still closing above 4000 for the first time since 13-Dec. The Market rallied across the board despite nothing new from a thematic perspective, though there may be some technical dynamics in play with the S&P over the key 200-dma and the Nasdaq more firmly above the key 100-dma. The big headline from the weekend was the WSJ's Timiraos reporting the Fed could start debating when to pause rate hikes this spring, though there was nothing particularly incremental in the February meeting preview.
U.S. equity indices mostly lower over the holiday-shortened week, with a Friday bounce not enough for the S&P to erase earlier slides (though the Nasdaq did). As the week opened, the soft-landing thesis seemed to be gaining credence with investors, but growth concerns returned to the fore after some disappointing economic data. Q4 earnings season ramped up, and will continue to do so next week.
Today’s major story marks a deterioration in risk sentiments from good to bad. The biggest issue seems to be a dent in the momentum behind the Fed’s soft-landing narrative due to string of negative US macro surprises.
That being said, the Fed remains steadfast, sticking with their higher-for-longer messaging and pushing back against the disinflation enthusiasm.
Netflix reported Q4 EPS below consensus and longtime CEO Reed Hastings is stepping aside as Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters named co-CEOs.
Despite dominating the headlines, Tech layoffs are not a threat to the tight labor market. This is especially true when you take into context Reuters reporting that the big five tech companies expanded their employee base by 45% in 2020 and 20.5% in 2021.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending near worst levels after giving back earlier gains, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 181bps, 156 bps, and 124bps respectively. Busy US economic day with headline PPI dropping faster than expected, December retail sales were weaker than consensus, while industrial production declined more than expected. Key takeaway from the Fed Beige Book was retailers having trouble passing along price increases to consumers.
US equities finished mostly lower in fairly quiet, rangebound Tuesday trading. The NY Fed's Empire manufacturing survey contracted sharply, with its lowest headline reading since mid-2020. Bloomberg reported that the ECB may dial back the pace of its rate hikes to 25 bp in March following an expected 50 bp move next month. IB earnings mixed, with Goldman missing and Morgan Stanley posting a beat.
The major averages were all higher for a second-straight week with growth and value in line, though value slightly topped growth for a sixth-straight week of outperformance. Support around the soft landing narrative was this week's key tailwind: This week's December CPI showed a sixth-straight monthly decline, while the annual increase of 6.5% was the lowest in 14 months. Despite the support for a pull back to 25 bp hikes, the latest Fedspeak leaned hawkish and continued to run against market expectations for cuts by year-end.
Slowing inflation headlines the newsflow with the December CPI down 0.1% month over month, below November’s 0.1% rise. While the New York Times, described it as good news for consumers and the Fed, mixed takeaways remain.
The data provides more support for an interest rate decrease to 25 bp in February, helping further ease financial conditions via rates and FX.
And Nelson Peltz, the founding partner of Trian Fund Management, gears up for a proxy fight for a seat on Disney’s board.
US equities closed higher in quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 80bps, 128bps, and 176bps respectively. A Very quiet day in terms of headlines as investors wait for the December CPI report out tomorrow. Fed's Collins said she is leaning toward a 25 bp rate hike in February, but like other officials, also talked about getting rates above 5%.
US equities higher in uneventful Tuesday trading, with the market generally looking ahead to CPI on Thursday and the first batch of bank earnings Friday. Bloomberg reported that amid rising debt ceiling concerns, Treasury Secretary Yellen has agreed to stay at her post following a December request from the White House. Microsoft mulling $10B investment in OpenAI.
US equities finished mixed in Monday trading, strengthening into midday before giving the early gains back. Markets were off best levels after hawkish-leaning Fedspeak continued to highlight the higher-for-longer stance with no indication of a pause anytime soon. Meanwhile, corporate updates, particularly out of retail and healthcare conferences received a lot of attention. However, takeaways were fairly mixed.
U.S. equities finished the week higher, opening 2023 with an up-and-down string of sessions capped by a big rally Friday. The market remained animated by the same themes that were prominent in 2022, including the path of inflation, the state of the labor market, and the Fed's policy response. While there were some welcome elements in recent economic reports, there was also a recognition (bolstered by this week's Fedspeak) that the Fed still has a ways to go to reach a sufficiently restrictive level for interest rates. The market is also waiting anxiously for the coming wave of Q4 earnings reports given thoughts that consensus estimates may still have a ways to come down. Nevertheless, the market also seemed to take some comfort in hopes for some corporate-earnings resilience amid cost cuts and workforce restructuring, promising inflation data out of Europe, and improving thoughts about China.
US equities were sharply higher in Wednesday trading, ending near their best levels following Powell comments, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 218 basis points, 309 basis points, and 441 basis points respectively. Nothing really incremental from Powell's prepared remarks at the Brookings Institution, but takeaways were still dovish. US economic data was mixed. China PMIs fell, and Japan, South Korea industrial production came in weaker.
US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, ending off worst levels with trading fairly uneventful through the afternoon. The market took a leg lower in the late morning after a report that AAPL will see 15-20M fewer iPhone Pro Q4 units shipments than expected. Meanwhile, November Consumer Confidence beat, though expectations index lowest since Jul-20.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending just off session lows. The selloff today comes after the S&P closed above the 4000 level last week for the first time since mid-September, with the index up more than 10% since hitting a YTD low on 13-Oct. Some pressure being ascribed to the widespread China Covid protests as well as some hawkish Fedspeak today, though there is little change in the higher-for-longer narrative.
US equities finished higher on Wednesday’s session with the major economic sectors broadly higher as stocks extend Tuesday’s rally. No real surprises in the November FOMC minutes as recent Fedspeak maintains a tight focus on reducing hikes and a higher-for-longer approach to tamp down inflation. Generally, earnings a mixed-to-worse bag with nothing particularly new from a thematic perspective, including the latest cost-cutting/restructuring headlines. China Covid trends remain negative but measures to support the property market are being implemented as the State Council meeting looks to aid growth with a possible cut in their reserve requirement ratio. Happy Thanksgiving
US equities higher Tuesday, ending near best levels. No one specific factor behind today's upside. Retail earnings were a bright spot, with companies highlighting inventory management. Tech earnings also pretty good despite continued PC weakness. A lower rate backdrop seems to be another tailwind, even with this partially attributable to negative China Covid trends.
US equities finished lower in uneventful Monday trading, though off worst levels. China Covid developments are an initial excuse for the pullback after three deaths reported in recent days, the first in over six months. Meanwhile, it was a volatile day for oil, with a big drop after press reports about a proposed 500K bpd OPEC+ output increase but then some recovery after Saudis denied the report, saying October's output cuts would be in effect until the end of the year.
US equities were lower this week, giving back some of last week's big gains that saw the S&P and Nasdaq both post the best week since June. Value was an outperformer, recouping some of last week's 440 bp underperformance to growth. A number of headwinds were in play this week, including hawkish-leaning Fedspeak. While this week's retail earnings were mixed, there was some concern around Target's (TGT) commentary on stressed consumers and a pullback in spending. It wasn't all bad though, as the peak inflation narrative was confirmed by the softer October PPI print.
US equities finished lower Thursday, but ended well off worst levels. there were some signs of resilience in equities despite another bearish curve flattening move in bonds and dollar rally. Hawkish Fedspeak was flagged as an overhang, though comments continue to fit with expectations for a slowdown in the pace of tightening. While retailers continue to flag heightened macro uncertainty, they have also talked up better inventory control.
US equities ended lower in a fairly quiet Wednesday session, With the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 12 bps points, 83 bps points, and 154 bps points respectively. Retail was a big drag today after some cautious takeaways from Target earnings. Fed's George called for a slower pace of rate hikes, but also flagged dampened soft-landing odds, while the Fed's Daly said pausing was off the table despite contacts highlighting some dialing back on the part of US consumers.
US equities higher Tuesday, finishing off best levels from the morning, with growth/long-duration/liquidity plays and other riskier pockets outperforming, as was the case last week. Market upside was driven by October PPI that came in cooler than consensus following last Thursday's Thursday's slower-than-expected CPI reading. However, an afternoon pullback was tabbed to geopolitical uncertainty after early reports suggested two stray Russian missiles fell in Poland.
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels, following the S&P on Friday capping its best weekly performance since June. While some sense the path of least resistance seems to have flipped to the upside, there was also some overhang today from hawkish leaning Fedspeak observing there is more work to be done on inflation. Meanwhile, the NY Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed increases in both one- and three-year inflation outlook.
US equities were higher this week, more than erasing the prior week's declines. A major factor in the upside was an outsized Thursday rally in the wake of a softer-than-expected report for October CPI that saw the S&P log its best session since April 2020. The dollar was weaker, particularly vs the yen, and notched its worst week since March 2020. Meanwhile, oil was weaker overall, trading with sensitivity to the evolving Covid situation in China.
US equities sharply higher, with the S&P 500 logging its best day since Apr of 2020 and the Nasdaq since Mar of 2020, while the S&P also posted its highest close since 12-Sep. The softer-than-expected October CPI report sparked both equities and treasuries to rally as markets pulled back on expectations for a 75 bp Fed hike in December.
US equities were sharply lower in Wednesday trading, ending near session lows, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 195 basis points, 208 basis points, and 248 basis points respectively. Midterm election results still have to be sorted but results are on track for the divided government that was widely expected, albeit with the GOP seemingly underperforming the "red wave" talk. Some key themes for tomorrow' CPI report include sticky rental inputs, though also some focus on falling used-car prices, and slowdown in rents on new leases and nominal wage growth.
US equities were mostly higher in choppy Tuesday trading, ending off best levels. US midterm elections are the highlight of the day, and expectations revolve around a divided Congress. In terms of other near-term bullish talking points, seasonality and positioning dynamics are supportive, while the narrative of some higher-profile themes improving at the margin also seems to have some traction.
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. Today's upside came after US equities finished lower last week despite good gains in a fairly volatile post-NFP session on Friday. It was a very quiet session without much new around the ongoing themes across the market. Midterm elections continue to receive the bulk of the attention despite uncertainty on market impact. Meanwhile the market awaits the CPI report set to release on Thursday.
US equities were lower this week as the S&P and Nasdaq both posted declines after back-to-back weekly gains. Growth was a big laggard to value, underperforming by the most since the week ended 7-Jan, with megacap tech a significant drag. The dollar index was a bit stronger though sterling weakness was the big story after this week's dovish BoE decision.
US equities lower in Thursday trading, coming off of worst morning levels but trading in a narrow range through the afternoon before fading into the close. Major indices are on track for substantial weekly declines. Hawkish Fed takeaways continued to reverberate today, tightening global financial conditions. China reiterates commitment to Zero Covid. October ISM Services came in below consensus.
US equities finished lower in a volatile post-FOMC Wednesday afternoon, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 155 basis points, 250 basis points, and 336 basis points respectively. Fed raised rates by 75 bp for a fourth straight time, taking the funds rate to 3.75-4.0%. Geopolitics headlines continue to be volatile though Russia agreed to rejoin the UN-backed grain export deal.
US equities finished mostly lower Tuesday, with the market quieting significantly after some morning data releases. Today's market downside was chalked up to some "good news is bad news' takeaways from that data. Most notably, resilient US job openings data brought monetary-policy implications to the fore, given that the Fed is still working to ease labor-market pressures. No new themes from the latest earnings releases. There was nearly $30B in M&A announced today, including JNJ acquiring ABMD.
US equities finished mostly lower in uneventful Monday trading, with the price action following stocks notching a second straight week of gains on Friday despite disappointing big tech earnings. Eurozone consumer prices was the latest inflation data to come in hotter, and there continues to be some pushback against the monetary policy pivot narrative driving a backup in rates and stronger dollar.
US equities higher for the second straight week, with price action driven in large part by the big uptick in Q3 earnings reports. Growth was a big underperformer to value, with several disappointments among those Big Tech reports serving as a significant drag. Nevertheless, the lower-rate backdrop and a weakening dollar were seen as helpful.
US equities ended lower Thursday, finishing near session lows, with growth underperforming value by ~150 bps. Communication services and tech were the worst performers, with META (24.6%) spilling over into other megacap tech names. Earnings risk has definitely ratcheted up, and AMZN's post-close results look similarly nasty.
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, after rallying for a third straight session on Tuesday and finishing at best levels in over a month. S&P was lower due to the Alphabet and Microsoft selloff, while the biggest bright spot seemed to be the lower rate backdrop and weaker dollar.
US equities higher Tuesday, finishing near best levels. Major averages up for a third straight day, with support today seeming to come from lower yields and a weaker dollar. Consumer Confidence fell more than expected in October, with inflation concerns back up after having receded since July.
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off session highs and extending Friday's gains, which capped off best week for S&P and Nasdaq since June. Deeply depressed sentiment and positioning are still cited as the key upside driver. US flash manufacturing and services PMIs missed, and China tech and Macau-linked casinos were broadly weaker in the wake of the conclusion of its party congress.
US equities higher this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq more than rebounding from last week's declines, and both indexes posting their best weekly performance since June. Technical and mechanical factors, as well as deeply depressed sentiment and positioning remained keys to the upside narrative this week. There was also some easing of conditions amid the latest UK updates including the U-turn on the fiscal policy plan and PM Truss' resignation, falling European natural gas prices, and some more discussion about the low bar for earnings.
US equities lower Thursday, as another session saw morning strength peter out through the afternoon. Still, major indices remain higher for the week after the strong Monday/Tuesday rally. Philly Fed manufacturing data shows price increases. UK PM Truss resigns. Tesla falls on earnings.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, somewhat off worst levels; however, major indices still sitting on big WTD gains. Further tightening of financial conditions was in focus today with a big backup in rates. Earnings takeaways still seem fairly positive though nothing in the results or commentary to counter the softening macro narrative.
US equities higher Tuesday, with technical and sentiment/positioning dynamics the go-to excuse for the extension of Monday's bounce. No other big directional drivers in play, though the Truss government's U-turn has dampened upward pressure on global bond yields, and the reaction to several higher-profile earnings reports out in recent days has been fairly upbeat.
US equities finished sharply higher in Monday afternoon trading, not far off best levels and more than erasing Friday's slide. Treasuries were mixed with the curve steepening. It was a very uneventful session outside of earnings. Better UK sentiment helped support today's rally as its new finance minister is working to calm markets. Fed's Bullard reiterated his preference for frontloading tightening and left open the possibility of Fed raising rates by 75 bp in both November and December. The October Empire State manufacturing index missed as the prices paid index jumped after three-straight declines.
US equities were mostly lower this week, dropping on four of the five days but catching a big rally on Thursday, when the S&P jumped 5% after touching a fresh YTD intraday low. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening. Semis saw notable pressure this week as the market evaluated new China export restrictions. Despite an impressive bounce on Thursday, the path of least resistance this week remained to the downside amid the Fed's continued focus on the “raise-and-hold” and “higher-for-longer” policy approach. September CPI came in hotter than expected on both the headline and core measures. September PPI also surprised to the upside on the headline, though core prices were in line with consensus. The Bank of England faced a huge amount of scrutiny by Conservative party lawmakers attempting to scapegoat the central bank following the market turmoil after the government's mini-budget announced three weeks ago.
US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, near best levels after reversing a big decline from right after the open. The S&P and Nasdaq both broke streaks of six straight declines. Treasuries were lower with the curve bear flattening. Headline September CPI came in up 0.4% month-over-month, hotter than consensus for 0.2% and the highest since June. The print steepened Fed rate path expectations, with the market now pricing in a near 100% chance of a 75-basis point hike in November. There was nothing specific behind today’s big bounce, with bombed out sentiment and positioning serving as the go-to excuse. Earnings takeaways were mixed, though the bar was low amid all the talk about earnings as the next shoe to drop.
US equities ended mostly lower in somewhat directionless Wednesday trading, With the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finish down 10bps, 33 bps, and 9bps respectively. S&P posted its lowest close since November of 2020 and the Nasdaq since July of 2020. Treasuries were firmer, particularly in the belly of the curve. Inflation and UK developments continue to dominate newsflow. Headline September PPI came in hotter-than-expected, but core inflation was in-line. Some hope that the Bank of England could do another U-turn and extend its bond-buying program. September FOMC minutes showed officials concerned that the cost of doing too little to bring down inflation outweighed the cost of too much. Treasury Secretary Yellen said dollar strength is the "logical outcome" of different monetary policy stances and said the market should determine currency levels. China press continued to defend zero Covid policy as big cities tighten restrictions.
US equities were lower in choppy Tuesday trading as S&P and Nasdaq both posted fifth-straight declines, falling 0.7% and 1.1%, while the Dow eked out a tenth of a percent gain. Treasuries were mostly weaker, though off worst levels from earlier when 10-year yields touched 4%. The Latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations saw another drop in one-year inflation expectations to 5.4% from August’s 5.7%. The Bank of England’s Governor Bailey ruled out bond purchases beyond Friday, encouraging pension funds to rebalance before intervention ends. Gig-economy stocks including Uber and Lyft were hit today by a new rule proposed by the Department of Labor that would effectively make it more likely that so-called "gig workers" would be classified as full employees rather than independent contractors.
US equities were lower in Monday trading, ending off their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 32 basis points, 75 basis points, and 104 basis points respectively. Treasury markets were closed for the US holiday. A somewhat choppy session today with some push-and-pull around earnings and Fed themes. A bit of a waiting game ahead of earnings season kickoff later this week. Fedspeak for the day included Fed Vice Chair Brainard, who said Fed will move deliberately to assess the impact of policy, and that the bank is attentive to risk of further adverse shocks. Chicago's Evans says he sees the rate going above 4.5%. Geopolitics also in focus with Putin saying Russian airstrikes on Ukraine were in retaliation for the weekend explosion of the bridge between Russia and Crimea. Corporate headlines were fairly quiet today. Tesla’s China deliveries hit a record in September. Macau casinos fell on renewed fears of another China Covid lockdown.
US equities finished mostly higher this week, snapping a big three-week losing streak during which the S&P lost ~12%. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished up 2.0%, 1.5%, and 0.7%, respectively. Treasuries ended a bit weaker with some curve flattening. Stocks bounced with oversold conditions and depressed sentiment and positioning indicators in focus early in the week. There were relatively few bullish talking points in focus this week with the largely technical nature of the rally. The Fed was unrelenting in its raise-and-hold/higher-for-longer messaging. Fedspeak featured some meaningful pushback against expectations for rate cuts in 2023. Bounce momentum was also dented to some extent by the moving pieces surrounding the pivot narrative, most notably with the slightly better than expected 263K increase in September nonfarm payrolls. Q3 Earnings season kicks off next week with many of the big banks reporting on Friday.
US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending just a bit off worst levels. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening. Initial jobless claims rose faster than expected for the most recent week. The market was processing a fair bit of Fedspeak today, none of which is really impacting the raise-and-hold narrative that has become standard for these pronouncements. There’s been a lot of press discussion around the fallout from OPEC+'s vote yesterday to cut its output targets by 2M barrels per day to help support prices.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, opening weaker after the big Monday-Tuesday rally and then firming through the afternoon, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and the Nasdaq closing down 14 basis points, 20 basis points, and 25 basis points respectively. REITs and utilities came under pressure on the renewed rate backup. Energy stocks led on a good day for crude. Treasuries were weaker with some notable strength in the belly of the curve following the rate reprieve earlier this week. WTI crude settled up another 1.4%, and is now up more than 10% in the past three days following the big production-target cut by OPEC+. ISM services reading firmer than expected, ADP private payrolls increased 208K in September, largely in line with consensus, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 50 basis points as expected.
US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, adding to Monday's big rally which saw the S&P post its third-best start to an October since 1930. Treasuries were higher, though came off best levels. The upside momentum was helped by dovish surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised rates by 25 basis points vs the 50 that had been expected. August JOLTS job openings posted one of the biggest drops on record, while the NY Times also discussed some signs that the labor market is loosening and wage growth is slowing.
US equities ended notably higher in Monday afternoon trading, just off best levels. The S&P logged one of its best sessions of the year after setting a fresh YTD low on Friday (which capped a third-straight down week). Treasuries rallied with the biggest gains in the belly of the curve. After several failed attempts recently, stocks held on to a big rally. There is more speculation about the need for Fed to pivot from its outsized rate hikes amid concerns something is going to break. September ISM manufacturing saw a larger-than-expected slowdown. Despite the stock rally, sentiment is still depressed amid concerns about tightening financial conditions from the global rate hike cycle.
US equities were lower for the week, with major indices now down six of the past seven weeks. The S&P set fresh YTD intraday and closing lows on Friday, breaking below 3600 and touching the lowest levels since November of 2020. The path of least resistance remained firmly to the downside this week, with fears that "something is about to break" permeating much of the discussion. A big catalyst for this being the Bank of England announcing it would intervene in the Gilt market to restore orderly functioning in the wake of the Tories' tax-cut plans. This week saw a big barrage of Fedspeak that largely reiterated the raise-and-hold/higher-for-longer mindset. Surveys continued to show pessimistic sentiment, and oversold conditions did not generate much support for bounce attempts.
US equities were lower in Thursday trading, ending a bit off worst levels as the S&P finished at the lowest level since November of 2020. Treasuries were weaker though off worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session without any single catalyst for today's weakness, though risk remains to the downside as recent bounce attempts have attracted a lot of scrutiny. UK Prime Minister Truss defended her government's unfunded tax cuts. German flash inflation came in hotter than expected for September. The central bank continues to push “raise-and-hold” and “higher-for-longer” messaging.
US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and the Nasdaq closing up 188 basis points, 197 basis points, and 205 basis points respectively. The S&P broke a six-day string of declines that saw the index yesterday hit its lowest intraday level in nearly two years. Treasuries were notably firmer, particularly in the belly of the curve. 10-year yields spent some time above 4% but later pulled back to near 3.70%. The Big UK bond rally was the main driver after the Bank of England said this morning it would purchase long-dated Gilts to restore market functioning. Not much from another flurry of Fedspeak. Hurricane Ian currently at category 4 strength as it makes landfall in Florida.
US equities were mixed in fairly choppy Tuesday trading, but closed off their worst levels when the S&P hit lowest intraday level since November of 2020. Treasuries were mostly weaker with a big bear steepening move following an earlier, broad-based bounce attempt. September consumer confidence came in ahead of expectations for the second straight month. August new-home sales came in well ahead of consensus. Two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline were reported today by Sweden's maritime administration. It was also another busy day of Fedspeak.
US equities were lower in Monday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. Treasuries under pressure across the curve, ending near worst levels as global bond yield backup continued. Not much specific behind today's weakness as pain trade for risk assets are still largely to the downside as the market narrative continues to revolve around a tightening of financial conditions driven by a more hawkish than expected Fed-led global rate hike cycle. BoE's Bailey said the bank would not hesitate to hike to return inflation to the 2% target but made no hint of a near-term rate hike. Fed presidents Bostic and Collins both said there is a path to a soft landing, highlighting positive momentum, solid balance sheets, and a resilient labor market. Depositions of Elon Musk and Twitter CEO Agrawal were postponed.
US equities were lower across the board this week, with the major averages posting a fifth decline in the past six weeks. The S&P 500 was down by more than 4% for the third week over the same period, while the Nasdaq was off by more than 5% for a second-straight week. Higher rates and tightening financial conditions drove a further deterioration in sentiment this week. FT noted that US real yields hit the highest levels since 2011, which some strategists expect to further weigh on equity multiples. The dollar remains a growing headwind, with the dollar index hitting the highest level since Jun-2002 this week.
US equities finished lower in fairly quiet Thursday trading, with a bit of a rally in the last hour of the session largely evaporating. Treasuries were notably weaker, particularly in the belly of the curve. Hawkish takeaways from the Fed dot plot and Powell’s press conference continue to dominate the headlines. Japan intervened to support the yen for first time since 1998 after it weakened past 145 yen per dollar for first time since 1998. Several central banks announced rate hikes, bringing this week's total to more than 600 basis points.
US equities finished lower, near their worst levels, with the market very volatile after today's FOMC meeting, and the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 170 basis points, 171 basis points, and 179 basis points respectively. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points today, as widely expected. The FOMC statement was little changed from July. Dot plot takeaways leaned hawkish with the median rate at 4.4% to end 2022 and a 4.6% terminal rate in 2023. Geopolitical tensions were a big area of focus in the overnight as Putin announced a partial mobilization ahead of referenda in four occupied regions of Ukraine while also reiterating the threat to utilize nuclear weapons. Further signs of the housing market cooling, but generally better inflation headlines.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, though finished off worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all falling around 1%. The S&P has now given up ~10% since the index crested 4300 in mid-August. Stocks were on the defensive today, with some focus on another big backup in bond yields and negative earnings preannouncements. The market awaits the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Sweden's Riksbank raised rates by 100bp, ahead of expectations for a 75bp move. August US housing starts were stronger than consensus, but building permits were light. Ford was the big story today, guiding Q3 EBIT nearly 50% below the Street.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, rallying in the last hour of trading after spending much of the day near the unchanged mark. It was a fairly quiet session, with investor attention firmly fixed on Wednesday's FOMC meeting (which may bring a 75bp hike and a new set of economic projections). There are also some growing worries that consensus earnings estimates need to come down to reflect growth, inflation, margin and FX headwinds. Today's data included a September builder confidence miss. Elsewhere, Bloomberg noted more Americans are stuck with long-term credit card debt.
US equity indices were notably lower this week, with the S&P logging its fourth weekly decline in the last five weeks. The S&P is now down ~10% from its recent 12-Aug peak. A hotter-than-expected August CPI report on Tuesday sparked a big selloff and raised fears of a more-aggressive Fed and a longer wait before any dovish pivot, while also somewhat undercutting economic "soft landing" hopes.
US equities were lower in Thursday afternoon trading, though finished a bit off worst levels as the S&P closed just above the key 3900 level. Treasuries were weaker with more curve flattening (key spreads most inverted since 2000). There were no big directional drivers behind the negative tone, though the path of least resistance seems to the downside in the wake of Tuesday's hotter CPI report, which has led to higher terminal rate expectations. The threatened US rail strike was averted after the White House and unions reached a tentative deal this morning. Headline retail sales surprised to the upside, but core control group was flat and missed expectations. Adobe finished down upon news of the $20B acquisition of Figma and underwhelming Q4 guidance.
US equities were mostly higher in fairly choppy Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq rising 10 basis points, 34 basis points, and 74 basis points respectively. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening after a big bearish flattening move in prior session; The 2Y yield reached its highest level since October of 2007. The Market struggled for direction after yesterday's big selloff. The Hotter than expected August CPI print continued to dominate the narrative. US headline PPI declined for a second straight month, though the core reading was a bit firmer following the hot CPI reading on Tuesday. Lots of discussion in press about growth, supply chain, and inflation risks from the potential rail strike in the US. In terms of company news, a Busy day of antitrust headlines.
US equities were sharply lower in Tuesday trading, ending just off their worst levels in the wake of today's hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq falling 394 basis points, 432 basis points, and 516 basis points respectively. The S&P and Nasdaq posted their worst day since Jun-20th. Growth was an underperformer versus value by ~170 basis points, but both factors were down. Treasuries were mostly weaker with yields at the front-end of the curve sharply higher. August's CPI release showed headline inflation rising 10 basis points m/m against expectations for a slight monthly pullback. The release put market under significant pressure, with some press commentary helping push odds of a 100bp September hike over 30%.
US equities were higher in uneventful Monday afternoon trading, though ended somewhat off best levels. The S&P and Nasdaq both up for the fourth-straight day, extending last week's rally that broke a streak of three-straight weekly declines. Treasuries were mostly weaker, off some earlier strength, with the curve steepening. Fairly quiet from a headline perspective, with focus tightly on tomorrow's August CPI report and expectations for a m/m headline decline. NY Fed survey showed consumer inflation expectations continued to decline in August across all time horizons with respondents increasingly optimistic about their finances.
US equities rallied this week to break three-straight weekly declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing the week up 266 basis points, 365 basis points, and 414 basis points respectively. Growth outperformed value, breaking a four-week streak of underperformance. Treasuries sold off fairly sharply with the curve flattening. Gains this week were driven by factors including oversold conditions, some more traction in the peak-inflation narrative, and firmer labor market data. Expectations for a 75 bp hike in September continued to ramp up this week, with market odds up to ~85% by Friday. Next week's August CPI report will be the last key datapoint ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
US equities finished higher in a choppy Thursday session, near best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq rising 61 basis points, 66 basis points, and 60 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker across the curve. No change in the market narrative in today's session. Nothing new from Fed Chair Powell, who reiterated the Fed would keep going down the tightening path until it achieves price target. The ECB raised rates by 75 basis points. Quiet day of US data included an initial jobless claims beat.
US equities were higher and finished just off best levels in Wednesday trading. Stocks staged a broad-based rally after finishing lower yesterday when an early bounce attempt failed. Energy was under pressure on oil selloff. Market activity, it was fairly quiet ahead of Powell and ECB on Thursday. Despite today’s bounce, pain trade still seems to be to the downside on concerns about Fed's raise-and-hold strategy. WSJ's Nick Timiraos said the Fed is likely to raise rates by 75 bp at the September FOMC meeting.
US equities finished lower in a fairly choppy yet uneventful Tuesday session, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 55 basis points, 41 basis points, and 74 basis points respectively. Treasuries were under pressure with the curve steepening and extending a big backup in yields last week. No big directional drivers in play ahead of Powell and the ECB later this week. The August ISM Services beat with prices index down for the fourth-straight month and employment index back into expansion territory. Russia warned gas supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will remain halted until the West lifts its sanctions. China said it will accelerate stimulus in Q3 but stopped short of announcing specific measures. OPEC+ surprised with a 100K barrel per day cut at its Monday meeting though the move is seen as largely symbolic.
US equities were down for the week, with major indices lower for the third consecutive week. Treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening, a move that seemed to lack a clear catalyst other than the ongoing flurry of hawkish central-bank takeaways. Materials lagged, seeing weakness across industrial metals and chemicals. Energy was a slight relative outperformer despite weak crude. There were several economic reports of note this week, the primary focus being the August's nonfarm payrolls report. The path of monetary policy remained the central question, with expectations firming for a 75bp Fed rate hike in September.
US equities mostly lower in Thursday trading, though just off best levels as markets rebounded from fairly morning decline. The S&P broke a four-day streak of declines, though the Nasdaq posted a fifth consecutive daily decline. A bit of a risk off tone to start the seasonally weak month of September as a batch of better economic data played into good-news-is bad-news narrative. August ISM manufacturing index beat with new orders, employment indexes returning to expansion territory, prices index lowest since Jun-20.
US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending at their worst levels and unable to sustain an early rally for the third-straight time this week; Dow Jones, S&P500, and the Nasdaq closing down 88 basis points, 78 basis points, and 62 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening, ending near their worst levels. The Dollar was weaker vs the euro and a bit firmer on the yen cross. Gold finished down 60 basis points. Bitcoin futures were up 1.7%. WTI crude ended down 2.3%, off its worst levels but extending the 5.5% selloff in the prior session. The Bearish narrative gaining some renewed traction on concerns about elevated valuations, deteriorating technicals, negative seasonals for both market and earnings revisions, heightened ECB hawkishness in the face of heightened growth risks and a lackluster China credit impulse in the face of Covid and property market headwinds.
US equities lower Tuesday, with the major indices all down about 1%. The S&P is now down over 7% since 16-Aug and closed below 4K for the first time since 26-Jul. Energy/crude under notable pressure. The market reversed gains this morning (which seemed to stem from better energy headlines out of Europe) in response to reports that Taiwanese soldiers used liver ammo to fire on a Chinese drone.
US equities were lower in very quiet Monday trading. Stocks finished a bit off worst levels though extended Friday's sharp drop in the wake of Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Energy was the standout on a good day for crude. ECB speakers suggested bank could hike by 75 bp this month. Another maintenance shutdown of Nord Stream 1 pipeline also due later this week.
U.S. equities were lower this week, with growth underperforming value for a third-straight week. Tech and communications services were the worst performers, while energy was the only sector higher. Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech Friday leaned hawkish, as expected, and didn't change much in terms of the rate path outlook. Economic data this week added more support for the peak-inflation narrative.
US equities higher in fairly uneventful Thursday trading ahead of Fed Chair's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow. The market has been concerned about a hawkish speech, but the bar seems to have been lowered by the Fed's consistent recent telegraphing of a pushback against the dovish-pivot narrative. Macro read-through from July-Q earnings continues to be mixed. Elsewhere, China added more fiscal stimulus.
US equities ended higher in an uneventful Wednesday session; the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq finishing up 18 basis points, 29 basis points, and 41 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker across the curve with yields near their worst levels following today's soft five-year note auction. It was a very quiet session with the market remaining in waiting mode for Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole and PCE prices on Friday. July durable-goods orders were flat after four consecutive monthly gains, but core capital-goods orders were higher. July existing-home sales declined, but not as much as feared amid some moderation in mortgage rates. Urban Outfitters and Petco earnings missed expectations, Toll Brothers saw larger than expected order decline, but Intuit posted strong results and raised guidance.
US equities narrowly mixed in very quiet Tuesday trading. Multiple US economic data points came in softer than expected. The market is contending with lingering worries about a hawkish Powell at Jackson Hole Friday. Oil rallies on a report OPEC+ may cut production. Retail earnings continue to be better than feared, though inventory clearing remains an issue.
US equities lower in Monday afternoon trading, near worst levels. A decidedly risk-off session ahead of Fed Chair Powell's much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister said OPEC+ may be forced to cut production. Reports said US encouraged by latest developments around Iran nuclear talks. Natural gas futures hit record high in Europe today. Latest Reuters poll of economists highlighted expectations for Fed to hike 50bp next month in line with market pricing. Some press focus noted it is the slowest market for IPOs since 2009.
Stocks lower after four-straight weeks of gains, with the S&P 500 modestly lower after four-straight weeks of gains. The path of least resistance had been to the upside in recent weeks on factors including positioning and sentiment, as well as more support in recent weeks for the peak-inflation narrative. However, one of the biggest themes this week was more Fed pushback against the dovish pivot.
US equities modestly higher in uneventful Thursday trading. The August Philadelphia Fed Index posted a surprise positive print, with the report showing further softening of inflation. The Fed minutes showed little new, while Fedspeak continues to push back against the policy pivot narrative. Cisco posted strong earnings.
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, though off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq down 50 basis points, 72 basis points, and 125 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker across the curve. No one specific factor behind today's pullback though there continue to be thoughts that recent strength is nothing more than a bear market bounce driven by depressed positioning. Today's big event was the release of the July FOMC minutes, which showed committee members saw a risk the Fed could tighten more than necessary. Retail gave back some of yesterday's big gains on mixed earnings takeaways.
US equities mixed in an uneventful Tuesday trading session. The S&P closed above 4300 and marked its highest close since 21-Apr. WTI Crude fell 3.2% to hit its lowest close since 25-Jan. July housing starts missed while building permits beat, but both are at multi-month lows. Industrial and manufacturing production surprised to the upside. WMT and HD provided a solid start to retail earnings.
US equities finished higher in very uneventful Monday trading, near session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq up 45 basis points, 40 basis points, and 62 basis points respectively. Airlines were among the best performers. Energy was the worst performer. Treasuries rallied with the curve steepening; 2Y/10Y spread holding just under -40 bp. Empire manufacturing index plunged to its lowest level since June 2020 while homebuilder sentiment fell into contraction for the first time since May 2020 in some of the first August data points. Disney was boosted by news Third Point has acquired a significant stake and is pushing for a spinoff of ESPN and integration of Hulu directly into Disney+. Elliott has reportedly taken a large stake in Cardinal Health. Gap got a boost from a report the company is exploring a spin-off of Athleta.
US equities posted solid gains this week, with the S&P 500 up for the fourth straight week and the Nasdaq back above 13K for the first time since late April. The 'peak-inflation' theme was the key focus this week, gaining more traction after July CPI and PPI both showed softening pricing pressures. Still, Fed officials continue to push back against the 'peak Fed' narrative, and skepticism over rates and whether we're in a bear-market bounce remain overhangs.
US equities finished mixed, surrendering early strength, but still on track for solid weekly gains. July PPI came in softer than expected, following yesterday's softer July CPI print. Fed officials continue to argue that the bank's inflation-taming work remains unfinished. The big question for investors remains whether we're in a bear market rally or something more substantial. DIS beats on Parks strength.
US equities finished notably higher in Wednesday trading on the back of a cooler July inflation print; Dow Jones, S&P500 and the Nasdaq jumping 163 basis points, 213 basis points, and 289 basis points respectively. Treasuries were mostly stronger with the curve steepening (though the front end remained well above 3%). July CPI surprised to the downside on both headline and core measures, with the year-over-year increase dropping to 8.5% from June's 9.1% pace. Fed speakers continued to push back against hopes for a dovish policy pivot. Still some concern that the bear market bounce may be running out of steam, particularly given an earnings reset risk.
US equities lower in another fairly quiet session ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated July CPI report. Some overhand today from another warning out of the semi space, this time from Micron (MU). AppLovin (APP) announced an all-stock proposal to combine with Unity Software (U) in a $17B deal.
US equities finished mixed in fairly quiet Monday trading. Stocks came off some morning strength and hovered near the unchanged mark for much of the afternoon. There was little incremental in today's headlines. The NY Fed survey showed substantial declines in consumers' inflation expectations in July across all time horizons. Some weekend Fedspeak included Fed's Bowman saying 75bp rate hikes should remain on the table until inflation declines in a consistent, meaningful and lasting way. The market seems to be largely playing a waiting game ahead of Wednesday's July CPI report.
US equities were mostly higher this week, following on last week's big gains (and despite the S&P logging declines in four out of five sessions). It was a somewhat mixed week for equities, though the mood was generally positive and the path of least resistance seemed to remain to the upside. Peak inflation theme was undermined by the unexpectedly strong nonfarm payrolls report results. Earnings continued to come in somewhat better than feared. July's ISM manufacturing report came in at its lowest level since June 2020.
US equities mostly lower in quiet, fairly rangebound Thursday trading following a big Wednesday rally that saw the S&P close at its highest level since early June. Energy (crude) the big sector decliner on the day. Not much in the way of headlines. A lot of focus in the press on changes Senator Sinema wants in the Democrats' reconciliation bill. A much-anticipated July nonfarm payrolls report awaits tomorrow.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels; Dow Jones +129 basis points, the S&P500 +156 basis points, and the Nasdaq +259 basis points, with the latter finishing at the highest level since May 4th, and the S&P 500 since June 2nd. Treasuries were mostly firmer with the curve flattening after an outsized backup in yields in yesterday’s session. The Dollar index up.10 basis points with the best performance coming against the yen. Gold finished down 70 basis points, while Bitcoin futures were up 2.4%. WTI crude settled down 4.0%, near the worst levels. July ISM services surprised to the upside following a contraction in Markit's US services PMI, while the price index fell for a third consecutive month. Fed speak pushing back against a potential pivot the major theme of the day.
US equities were lower in fairly choppy Tuesday trading, finishing just off worst levels. They followed a mostly lower but relatively uneventful Monday session. The biggest driver to today's action was Fedspeak and impact on peak inflation and peak Fed narratives. Fed's Daly said the Fed's work on inflation is nowhere near done, while also stressing the need to make good on commitment to tightening. House Speaker Pelosi landed in Taipei. RBA raised rates by 50 bp as expected. June job openings came in below consensus, but still well above new hires.
US equities were modestly lower in fairly uneventful Monday trading, though ended off worst levels. Not much behind today's price action with number of moving pieces in play. The path of least resistance has been to upside in US equities over the last couple of weeks amid a combination of peak inflation and peak Fed narrative traction, along with positioning and technical dynamics. July ISM manufacturing was largely in line. Fed's Kashkari suggested the markets are getting ahead of themselves in anticipating a Fed pivot. There were some headlines that House Speaker Pelosi is reportedly set to land in Taiwan on Tuesday.
The major US averages all rallied this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq higher for the second straight week, and growth outperforming value for the third week in four. A number of factors in play, including earnings resilience (particularly in Big Tech), the "peak Fed" theme, "bad news is good news", and more traction around the "peak inflation" theme.
US equities higher Thursday, adding to Wednesday's big post-FOMC gains. The market was helped by a "bad news is good news" theme following the back-to-back contractions in US GDP in Q1 and Q2 and a fairly underwhelming batch of Q2 results. Treasuries caught a big rally. META disappointed on guidance. Senators Manchin and Schumer agreed on a landmark climate spending bill. AAPL and AMZN reports post-close look solid.
U.S. equities finished higher in Wednesday trading; Dow Jones +1.37%, S&P500 +2.62 % and Nasdaq +4.06%. Treasuries were mostly higher with the curve steepening. The Dollar was weaker on the major crosses, particularly against the euro and sterling. Gold finished up 10 basis points. Bitcoin futures were up 9.1%, back above $22K. WTI crude settled up 3.1% near best levels after losing nearly 2% in the prior session. Highlights of the day included big tech driving an early rally, with some upward revisions to GDP estimates after better-than-expected Durable Orders, and the afternoon seeing the Fed raising 75bp and additional commentary fueling gains into the close.
US Equities finished lower Tuesday, near worst levels. Retail came under notable pressure on WMT's negative preannouncement. SHOP said it will lay off 10% of workers, playing into concerns about a softer labor market. Elsewhere, European growth concerns are back on the front burner with the surge in natural gas prices on Russian supply cuts. The Fed is still widely expected to raise rates by 75 bps tomorrow.
US equities finished mostly higher in somewhat directionless Monday afternoon trading. Value topped growth today after notable underperformance in the prior week. Energy stocks saw a big rally. Treasuries were weaker, particularly at the wings of the curve. The market waits for Wednesday's FOMC meeting, which is expected to bring a 75bp hike. Thursday's Q2 GDP report is expected to show that the economy contracted for a second straight quarter. Data included another weak Dallas Fed print, though price indexes continued to fall well off peaks.
US equities finished the week higher despite a risk-off session Friday, with the major indices each moving above their 50-day moving averages. Plenty of moving pieces in the market narrative this week. Weaker economic releases contributed to firming expectations that the Fed will hike by 75 bps next week. Meanwhile, the ECB hiked by 50 bps vs expectations for 25 bps. Q2 earnings season shifted into high gear, and accelerates next week with 175 S&P constituents on the calendar.
US equities finished Thrusday trading higher, near best levels. Philly Fed manufacturing data weak, and initial jobless claims up for the third straight week. Busy in terms of overseas headlines, though the US market is largely awaiting next week's big tech earnings, flash PMIs tomorrow, Q2 GDP and the FOMC next week, July employment data on 5-Aug, and most importantly, July CPI on 10-Aug. The ECB raised rates by 50 bps vs 25 bps consensus. Russia restarts Nord Stream 1. TSLA +10% following earnings.
U.S. equities finished higher in Wednesday trading; Dow Jones +0.16%, S&P500 +0.59% and Nasdaq +1.58%. Treasuries mostly weaker with curve flattening following yesterday's backup in yields. Inverted 2/10 spread has pulled of lowest levels but still remains near 22-year lows. Dollar index up finished +40bps though still down for the week. Gold ended down 60 bps, while Bitcoin futures were up 90bps, though off best levels. WTI crude settled down 90bps, and Copper finished up 120bps June existing home sales weaker than expected while mortgage applications fell to a 22-year low. EU is reportedly asking member countries to cut gas demand by 10-15% amid concerns Russia may halt supplies.
US equities sharply higher, ending near highs, in contrast to yesterday's session when a morning rally faded. June housing starts missed consensus. Better tone today partially attributable to the dollar pullback following some speculation surrounding a more aggressive ECB. The average price of US gasoline is back below $4.50/gallon for the first time in nine weeks. Russia planning to restart Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Latest BofA fund manager survey shows extreme pessimism.
US equities were lower in Monday trading, ending just off worst levels after giving up some morning strength and extending last week's declines. Not much specific behind today's late-day selloff. Fed rate-hike expectations for July have settled back toward 75bp. China news has trended positive, helped by continued policy-support headlines. Biden's Mideast trip note little concrete gains, though administration officials are talking up hopes for oil relief in the coming weeks. On the flip side, July's NAHB homebuilder sentiment index printed well below consensus on production bottlenecks and high inflation.
US equities were modestly lower on the week, though off the worst mid-week levels that followed the hotter-than-expected June CPI print. The hot print led the market to price in a 90% chance of a 100 bp hike at the July FOMC meeting, but this fell below 30% by Friday as Fed officials favored 75 bp in their comments. Despite the (backward-looking) CPI report, there were more hopes that inflation may be peaking. Banks highlighted the first week of earnings season. Next week, we'll get some more key economic data ahead of the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.
US equities finished mostly lower, but near best levels for the day. The market was largely able to shake off its early session risk-off stance driven by concerns about a more-aggressive Fed and a downbeat Q2 report from JPM. While expectations for July's FOMC rate hike spiked to 100bp in the wake of yesterday's hotter-than-feared June CPI report, forecasts slid back toward 75bp with today's Fedspeak.
U.S. equities finished lower in Wednesday trading; Dow Jones (0.67%), S&P500 (0.45%), and Nasdaq (0.15%). Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening; 2/10 spread finished the most negative since October 2000. June CPI report showed a +9.1% y/y rise in headline inflation, highest since 1981, with Core CPI also accelerating. Market now anticipating an ~80% chance of a 100bp hike in July. Earnings tomorrow morning from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Conagra Brands among others, along with June's PPI and weekly jobless claims.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, a bit off worst levels. Treasuries were stronger with some curve flattening. Late-day selloff sent stocks lower. There is a lot of anticipation ahead of tomorrow's June CPI report. The Earnings risk theme has also been a big overhang. China Covid resurgence, European growth worries, slowdown in the housing market, and potential Russian gas shipment halt are still in the broader mix as well. Reuters said President Biden will push for increased oil output during Middle East trip. Richmond Fed's Barkin was the latest to signal that the speed of Fed policy changes is making markets skittish.
US equities finished lower in Monday afternoon trading, back near worst levels. Treasuries were firmer with the curve flattening. The market spent much of the session in a narrow (negative) trading range. The market faced various headwinds and awaits the upcoming June CPI report on Wednesday. Chinese tech companies hit with regulatory fines over anti-monopoly rules. Fed's George reiterated her concerns about too-abrupt tightening. Commerce Secretary Raimondo said Biden likely to soon make a decision on China tariffs.
US equities higher on the week, with growth outperforming value by around 440bps. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening, with yields rising for three straight sessions through Friday A couple of key themes were in focus, notably concerns that consensus earnings are still too high, though offset by generally better economic data including Friday’s jobs report coming in well ahead of consensus. CPI announcement next week hopefully providing some additional clarity on the appropriate level for July’s rate hike.
US equities higher Thursday, finishing just off best levels. The S&P was up for the fourth consecutive session. Breadth was notably positive, with growth well ahead of value. Commodities rallied off recent weakness. Treasuries weaker again with some further curve flattening, and the 2/10 spread remains inverted. Preliminary results from Samsung Electronics generated some positive sentiment. MRK in talks to acquire SGEN.
U.S. equities mostly higher in Wednesday trading, off best levels, with the S&P500 capping off its first three-day streak of gains. Large-cap tech, road and rail, life sciences among the better performers, while retail, travel and leisure, autos, and banks lagged. Treasuries were under pressure across the curve. Dollar strengthened, while gold declined along with Bitcoin futures. WTI crude and copper also ending the day lower. FOMC minutes unsurprisingly leaned hawkish. June ISM manufacturing came in a bit better than consensus. China COVID concerns resurfacing, while UK Prime Minister Johnson under more pressure to resign.
US equities mostly higher Tuesday, reversing notable weakness in the first half of the session. There were no obvious catalysts for the reversal, though the commodity selloff likely helped. Macro headlines leaned cautious, and corporate newsflow was light. Fed minutes to be released tomorrow.
US equities lower on the week, with growth trailing value by around 300 bps. Treasuries saw a huge rally across the curve. A couple of key bearish themes were in focus, notably concerns that consensus earnings are still too high. However, market expectations around inflation continued to cool. Several key economic releases next week should improve the read on a 50 vs 75 bps hike for July.
US equities finished lower Thursday, though off worst levels. Q2 was the worst quarter for the S&P 500 since the height of pandemic concerns in Q1 of 2020, and the index logged its worst first half performance since 1970. May PCE softer than expected. The earnings risk theme only gained traction as RH cut guidance for the second time in a month.
U.S. Equities closed little changed today, with the Dow Jones rising 27 basis points, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished down 7 points and 3 points respectively after an overall choppy trading session. Big tech, HPCs, biotech, and pharma areas of relative strength, while travel, autos, and energy lagged. Powell reiterated the possibility of a soft landing at Sintra, while Mester supports a 75bps hike if conditions are unchanged. Worries that consumer resilience is showing signs of cracking, and overall too much optimism still baked into analysts earnings estimates. General Mills higher on earnings, while McDonald's and Ulta rose on upgrades. Bed, Bath, and Beyond went down the drain after first quarter losses were worse than expected. Data Centers lower after the Financial Times reported on Jim Chanos shorting the legacy operators.
US equities lower Tuesday, ending near worst levels, with softer US macro data (June Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed) more than outweighing positive China Covid developments. Nike earnings disappoint.
US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, following prior week's sharp rally when stocks snapped a big three-week losing streak. The Dollar was better on the yen cross but weaker vs the euro. Gold finished down. Bitcoin futures is also down. There was a lack of meaningful directional drivers today, the path of least resistance seemingly oversold conditions and contrarian buy signals from depressed sentiment and positioning indicators. The IMF predicted the US will narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. The G7 is finalizing plans for a price cap on Russian oil. The Disney board is set to discuss CEO Chapek's contract. Meanwhile, FTX's Bankman-Fried is reportedly seeking path for a Robinhood deal.
US equities well higher in a catalyst-light, holiday-shortened week, and following sharp losses last week. Alongside mounting recession/earnings risk fears, the market took on something of a "bad news is good news" atmosphere, with recent softer economic data encouraging the market to scale back rate-hike estimates (albeit slightly), and there was a notable drop in Treasury yields. Looking ahead, next week's economic calendar is somewhat more robust.
US equities higher Thursday, finishing near session highs, with the S&P and Nasdaq on pace to break a streak of three-straight weekly declines. The market has been in "bad news is good news" mode of late, with negative macro surprises providing some traction for the decline in Treasury yields, which has been flagged as supportive of sentiment. The same can be said for the recent pullback in oil and base metals.
US equities slightly in fairly uneventful Wednesday trading, with few changes to the broader narrative. Treasuries saw a big rally across the curve. Not much new from Fed Chair Powell's testimony today. Oil and commodities weakness getting some attention.
US equities sharply higher Tuesday coming off of another big selloff last week. Nothing specific behind today's bounce, with the easiest excuses revolving around deeply oversold conditions and depressed sentiment and conditioning indicators. Kellogg (K) splitting itself in three. JetBlue (JBLU) boosts offer for Spirit (SAVE).
US equities sharply lower this week with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance since March of 2020. The Fed hiked its benchmark interest rate by 75 bps on Wednesday, as had quickly become expected following last week’s hotter-than-expected May CPI print and some telegraphing by the press early in the week. Skepticism around the central bank's ability to engineer a soft landing continues to rise, with more strategists pointing to downside risk to earnings estimates and increasing scrutiny on the health of the consumer. Crypto takes a bath, with Bitcoin falling nearly 30% on the week.
US equities came under notable pressure in Thursday afternoon trading, with major indices more than erasing Wednesday's bounce. The S&P touched its lowest levels since Dec-20, Nasdaq since Sep-20. Treasuries rallied with curve steepening following an outsized rally in prior session. The dollar index was down with outsized declines on the major crosses. Gold finished higher and Bitcoin futures are down. Inflation and inventory issues were amongst the headlines today. Several central banks announced rate hikes, notably The Swiss National Bank surprising the market with its first tightening move in 15 years.
US equities higher Wednesday, breaking a five-day losing streak for the S&P, as the Fed met market expectations with a 75 bp rate hike.
US equities finished mostly lower in choppy Tuesday trading as the market waits for tomorrow's Fed rate decision, expectations for which have quickly swung to a 75 bps hike. Crypto remains under significant pressure. Oracle earnings a noteworthy bright spot.
US equities were notably lower in Monday afternoon trading, ending near worst levels. The S&P notched its worst day since 18-May and slipping into bear market territory (now down more than 20% from 3-Jan's all-time high). Treasuries were also under significant pressure with the curve flattening (and the 5/30 spread moving farther into negative territory). The Dollar index finished higher, with greenback little changed on the yen cross but strongly outperforming the euro and the sterling. Gold finished lower and Bitcoin futures are down. May’s hotter than expected CPI report is leading to concern from some going into the FED FOMC meeting this week. The dollar is back near it’s strongest level since 2002. The markets are further pressured by the latest updates around mass testing and rising Covid infections in China just days after opening. Also a few silver linings worth noting amidst oversold conditions.
US equities sharply lower this week, with Friday's hotter-than-expected May CPI report knocking the legs out from under the recent rally and raising fears of a more-hawkish Fed and a possible recession ahead.
US equities sharply lower Thursday, ending at session lows. The global monetary policy shift remained the big story today with hawkish takeaways from the ECB meeting driving expectations for more aggressive near-term tightening and putting upward pressure on bond yields. Also a mixed bag of headlines from China, with more signs Beijing is dialing down its crackdown on tech, but zero-Covid policy concerns back in focus. All eyes now on tomorrow's May CPI print.
U.S. Equities finished lower Wednesday. Treasuries under pressure across the curve. Dollar index higher, along with gold, and WTI crude, but Bitcoin futures finished lower. Little in the way of directional drivers in a fairly quiet session. Fed-led global policy shift, earnings risk, and the debate between recessionary risks and consumer resilience still top of mind. M&A rumors led to a jump for Roku, while Carnival Cruise Lines sank after a target cut at Morgan Stanley.
US equities higher Tuesday, ending near best levels. Earlier weakness chalked up to retail/earnings risk after Target's (TGT) profit warning. The Reserve Bank of Australia made a larger-than-expected 50 bps rate hike. Should be a quieter next few days ahead of CPI Friday and with Fed officials in a quiet period before next week's FOMC meeting.
US equities mostly higher in uneventful Monday trading, just off session lows. Treasuries were weaker with curve steepening. The Dollar was firmer on the yen and euro crosses, Gold finished lower, and Bitcoin futures are up. A very quiet session with China updates in focus, but few changes to other ongoing themes. China Covid sentiment continues to improve with continued regulatory easing in the Chinese tech sector also at play. Commerce Secretary Raimondo said the White House was looking into easing tariffs on some Chinese imports as part of the inflation fight. Depressed sentiment, oversold conditions, and better supply chain trends continue to be factors toward bullish sentiment.
Stocks were modestly lower for the week, reversing some of last week's gains when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both broke seven-straight weekly declines. Treasuries were weaker across the board with some curve flattening. The dollar was stronger, including a 3% gain on the yen cross and back above 130. Gold was down 0.1% for the week. WTI crude finished up 3.3% and at the highest level since 8-Mar. The market shifted into a “good news is bad news mode”. Some continuing to cite oversold conditions and positioning as drivers for a move to the upside. Fed Vice Chair Brainard adds to skepticism around September pause, downplaying the odds. Friday’s payrolls report beat estimates. OPEC+ boosts output, but market skeptical of actual impact.
U.S. Equities finished higher, near their best levels. Treasuries were mixed with some curve steepening. Dollar was weaker on the major crosses, Gold finished higher, and Bitcoin futures are up. Fed's Brainard added continued skepticism to potential September “pause”. OPEC+ announced increased bpd production, but not enough to drive a sustained pullback. Further positive headlines surrounding China reopening have been published. Microsoft cut it’s guidance citing foreign exchange headwinds.
U.S. Equities finished lower after very quiet session. Treasuries came under pressure with the curve flattening. Dollar gained, gold fractionally higher, Bitcoin futures down. Fed's Beige Book showing a deceleration in growth, consumer pushing back on higher prices. Shanghai lifted its lockdown. ISM Manufacturing better than expected, Manufacturing PMI slightly below consensus, and job openings with a slight slowdown. Salesforce rallied, while Digital Turbine dropped.
US equities finished lower in the Tuesday following Memorial Day, ending off of their best levels from midday. Today's market carried on with the discussion about whether recent equity strength is a real recovery or just a bear-market rally. Comments from the Fed's Waller yesterday seemed to throw a bit of cold water on the idea of a September pause to rate hikes. Meanwhile, China lockdown/supply chain updates were positive.
U.S. Equities rallied this week, for the first weekly gains in almost two months. Cyclical groups stood out, but both growth and value factors were firmer. Retailer reports from Williams-Sonoma and Nordstrom a bit brighter than those from Target and Walmart last week. Some cautious commentary from tech firms, though helped by some M&A headlines.
US equities sharply higher Thursday, with the S&P now solidly/hopefully on-track to end its streak of seven-straight weekly declines. Retailers strong again today on the heels of several well-received earnings reports (WSM, M, DG, DLTR). Broadcom (AVGO) acquiring VMware (VMW) in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $61B.
U.S. Equities closed higher, with Consumer Discretionary a standout. Treasuries mostly firmer, 10Y ~2.75%. FOMC Minutes showing 50pt hikes at next meetings, as expected. Durable Goods showing some slow down. High-end shoppers looking to upgrade their wardrobes boosted Nordstrom while Agilent guidance impacted by China lockdown headwinds.
US equities finished mostly lower, though just off session highs after a bit of a late afternoon rally. Not much behind the intraday recovery, while today's risk-off move was largely driven by Snap's negative preannouncement, which some saw as a possible "canary in the coal mine" for the broader digital advertising space. The latest US economic data (new home sales, PMI) was also quite weak.
US equities rallied in Monday trading, with the major indexes finishing just off best levels. Today's strength came after S&P fell for a seventh consecutive week last week but avoided falling into bear market territory. President Biden said he is considering lifting some China tariffs to help with inflation while the Shanghai reopening seems to be on track with COVID-19 cases at a two-month low. In corporate news, Broadcom is reportedly in talks to acquire VMWare. Another big week of retail earnings on tap with Costco, Dick's Sporting Goods, Nordstrom, Macy's, Best Buy, Dollar General and Dollar Tree among the notable companies set to report this week.
US equities lower this week, with the S&P notching its seventh-straight weekly decline. The S&P dipped into bear-market territory during Friday trading before recovering in the hour before the bell. No defining catalyst for the week, with the focus remaining on the Fed's attempt to engineer a "softish" landing, China's Covid lockdowns, and (to a lesser extent) the war in Ukraine. Retailers were a key focus this week, with some weak reports (WMT, TGT) raising questions about consumer spending and margins.
US equities mostly lower in fairly uneventful trading in which the market was unable to find definitive direction. Path of least resistance still seems to be to the downside, with the global monetary policy shift a key theme. Mounting evidence of margin headwinds also fits with concerns about risk to 2022 consensus EPS estimates. A number of strategists have recently published commentary discussing further downside risks to the market and recession scenarios.
US equities sharply lower Wednesday, with the S&P posting its worst session since June 2020, and the Nasdaq posting its fourth 4%+ decline of the past three weeks. The big story today revolved around inflation pressures and spending shifts flagged by retailers, most notably TGT, whose shares fell 25% after reporting Q1 results.
U.S. Equities finished higher today with the Nasdaq leading and the Dow lagging. Treasuries came under pressure after recent rate reprieve. Positive China headlines in the morning, and Powell staying the course this afternoon. Mostly positive economic data for Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial production, though homebuilder sentiment fell to a two-year low. Home Depot earnings further highlighted consumer strength, but Walmart’s earnings missed on higher expenses.
US equities finished mostly lower in Monday trading following a notable Friday rally that nevertheless capped the S&P's sixth consecutive weekly drop. The market struggled for direction today as investors waited for more news later in the week. The narrative has defaulted to push-and-pull between bearish and bullish themes. In corporate news, Elon Musk tweeted Twitter’s legal team accused him of violating NDA, Carlyle Group announced a plan to acquire Mantech International and Rivian sued Commercial Vehicle Group over the raising of an agreed-upon price for seats.
US equities were lower this week despite rallying Friday, with the S&P 500 falling for the sixth straight week, the longest such streak since 2011. During the midweek selloff, the S&P 500 hit the lowest point since Mar-2021 and the Nasdaq its lowest since Nov 2020. Overall, the bearish case for equities was little changed, with focus on the Fed-led global monetary tightening,more-persistent inflation than expected, China Covid lockdowns, geopolitics, global growth slowdown and recession fears, and extended valuations.
US equities finished a volatile session narrowly mixed and well off worst levels. April headline PPI rose 0.5% m/m, in line with consensus, while the overall report was somewhat better than expected. The market's path of least resistance remains to the downside, given the global monetary policy shift, China Covid lockdowns, and other factors, and skepticism remains that we have yet to see sufficient capitulation, particularly on the index level.
U.S. Indices finished lower, after rallying earlier in the day. Treasuries weaker, with 10s back above 3%. Growth continuing to trail against value. April core CPI hotter than expected. China COVID trending better. ECB set for summer liftoff. Sentiment indicators reaching lows not seen in years, flagging contrarian buy-signals. Tax season was good for H and R Block, but Wynn Resorts came up short.
US equities were mixed in choppy, somewhat listless Tuesday trading ahead of tomorrow's highly-anticipated April CPI report. The market shrugged off several factors cited this morning as supportive, including a CNBC report that hedge fund manager David Tepper had covered his Nasdaq short. A rate reprieve, with the 10y back around 3.00%, also failed to provide much help, nor did Fed officials continuing to push back against a 75bp hike.
US equities under pressure in Monday trading after the S&P fell for a fifth straight week last week, its longest losing streak since 2011. Market remains pressured by the Fed-led global monetary policy shift. Growth concerns surrounding China lockdowns, dampened economic surprise momentum, weakening guidance and earnings revision ratios, growth/tech/narrative scrutiny and geopolitical tensions some of the other bearish talking points. April CPI (out on Wednesday 11-May) is widely expected to be the macro highlight this week.
The major averages were lower this week as a big selloff on Thursday and Friday pushed the market well off Wednesday's post-FOMC highs. There was no one catalyst for the selloff, though markets faced particular headwinds from the big and rapid backup in yields. The "buy the dip" and "TINA" narratives also faced continued scrutiny and possible replacement by a new "sell the rally" paradigm.
US equities sharply lower, more than reversing yesterday's big post-FOMC rally. Also saw another big backup in bond yields, a dollar surge, and concerns about the complicated policy path for central banks moving forward. China reiterates its commitment to Zero Covid. Elon Musk discloses over $7B in financing commitments for his purchase of Twitter.
U.S. Equities closed sharply higher, with post-FOMC Meeting bounce. Powell putting 50bp hikes on the table for the next several meeting, but 75bp not under consideration. Oil higher on potential EU embargo of Russian imports. Shanghai to begin allowing manufacturers to resume production. ISM services index missed, Markit's services PMI level m/m, and ADP came up short. Starbucks with a grande move higher on earnings beat. Lyft shares driving off a cliff after second quarter guidance was weaker on increasing driver incentive spend.
US equities finished higher in a day of choppy trading as investors largely awaited tomorrow's FOMC meeting. With a 50 bp increase a foregone conclusion, the biggest area of uncertainty revolves around the potential for a 75 bp move in the near term. Q1 earnings continue apace, with the latest batch featuring themes including continued supply chain and input cost price pressures, solid demand, China Covid lockdown drag, FX headwinds, reopening momentum and economic normalization, capital return and production and capex discipline in energy.
US equities managed to finish higher in choppy Monday sessions after approaching fresh 52-week lows in the mid-afternoon. The path of least resistance appears to remain to the downside given concerns around tightening financial conditions. Big macro week ahead with the Fed and April employment report. However, with the Fed already widely expected to hike rates by 50 bp, the market may have to wait for more meaningful direction from the April CPI print on Wednesday 11-May. Just over 55% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q1 results and in the aggregate, companies are reporting earnings 3.4% ahead of expectations.
US equities sharply lower in a choppy week of trading which called the buy-the-dip and TINA mantras further into question. Treasuries little changed, with expectations firm for a 50bp hike from next week's FOMC meeting. The USD continues to rally, rasing some concerns over tight financial conditions and market valuations. Big Tech earnings decidedly mixed; other key earnings themes include supply chains, elevated costs, FX, and strong demand.
US equities ended sharply higher, finishing just off best levels, with all sectors up over 1%. After several false starts this week, the market mounted a more solid bounce founded on better than feared earnings/guidance out of tech (notably FB). Germany drops opposition to Russian oil embargo. AMZN trading lower post-market after its earnings report.
Major U.S. Equity Indices flat to higher, off best levels seen earlier in the day. Treasuries weaker, dollar better, gold down, bitcoin up, and WTI crude slightly higher. Pending home sales lowest since May-2020. Microsoft earnings another silver lining in the cloud, while YouTube led to an Alphabet miss. Boeing getting taken for a ride on Air Force One contract.
US equities sharply lower, ending near worst levels. The S&P is (~13%) from its early January record, and the Nasdaq is in a bear market, (~22%) from November. Large-cap tech and growth weakness the story today, though nothing specific behind the move. GOOGL, MSFT both lower post-market after earnings reports.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, helped by an afternoon bounce that was largely chalked up to oversold conditions following two straight weeks where the S&P was off over 2%. There have been no notable developments in global monetary policy shift and the market has largely priced in three 50 bp rate hikes starting in May. Meanwhile, China’s Covid lockdown continues to weigh on commodities and stoke fear over supply chain constraints. In M&A news, Elon Musk will acquire Twitter for ~$44B, Blackstone will acquire PS Business Parks for ~$7.6B, Match Group traded higher on rumors of a Meta Group takeover target, Kohl’s reportedly got an offer from JCPenney owners and Silicon Motion Technology traded higher after a report the company is exploring a sale.
Major U.S. Equity Indices sold off into the weekend, with all ending lower for the week. Treasuries firmer on the day, though yields continuing to backup, with hawkish commentary from the ECB and the Fed. Capital continuing to move out of equities and into bonds. Airlines a bright spot this week on a strong return in travel demand a common theme in earnings announcements. More broadly, little surprise in earnings commentary noting inflationary concerns, labor, and supply chain as common concerns. Economic data mixed for the week.
U.S. Equities finished lower. Growth lagged value. Hawkish central bank commentary from ECB officials and Fed Chair Powell sees potential for 50bps hike in May. Jobless claims lowest since 1970. Earnings beats slightly below trend. Airlines continuing to see strong demand recovery. TSLA higher on growth outlook. Sleep Number deflated after an earnings miss and downgrade.
U.S. Equities finished mixed, with Dow higher, S&P flat, and Nasdaq lower. Value outperformed growth. Treasuries firmer. Fed's Beige Book noting economic activity continuing to expand, but cost pressures, supply chain, and labor shortages persisting. IBM higher after a sunny earnings outlook from its cloud business. Netflix dropping more than 35% after its results showed subscribers pressing pause on their plans.
US equities higher Tuesday, ending near best levels. Today was about an accumulation of themes, including a commodities pullback, positive demand commentary from earnings reports, and housing data which surprised to the upside.
US equities were little changed to a bit lower on Monday with the market devoid of any notable directional drivers coming out of the long holiday weekend. Sectors were somewhat mixed with growth a slight outperformer to value though neither factor did much. In geopolitical news, China Q1 GDP expanded more than expected although there remain doubts it fully reflected the Covid shutdowns. Meanwhile Europe is said to be moving closer to a phased ban of Russian oil, while Russia is reportedly beginning a new offensive in eastern Ukraine. Looking ahead, nearly 70 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report Q1 results this week with an outsize focus on financial firms and companies leveraged to the reopening narrative.
US Equities mostly lower in the short week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both down for a second-straight week though the small-cap Russell edged a gain. Downward price action came despite the week's rate reprieve. Treasuries' sharp bull steepening move driven by Tuesday's March CPI report. Banks kicked off earnings season with mixed results. Musk makes offer of questionable seriousness to buy Twitter.
Major U.S. Equity Indices all finished higher. Treasuries rallied. PPI hotter than expected. 1Q22 earnings kick off. Biotech buyouts, activist activity, and below consensus bank earnings.
US equities mostly lower Tuesday, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all ending down roughly three-tenths of a percent. Stocks attempted to bounce following March CPI data this morning on the softer Core (ex food and energy) reading. Path of least resistance remains lower as often-intertwined bearish talking points pile up. Q1 bank earnings reports begin tomorrow.
US equities finished notable lower in Monday trading extending last week’s downside with the S&P and Nasdaq both snapping three-week win streaks on Friday. The bond yield backup continues the curve steepening while the 5/30 spread moved out of inversion territory and the 2/10 spread pushed back toward 30 bp. In Covid news, Shanghai will start easing lockdowns in some areas despite reporting a record 25K+ new infections. In corporate news, Twitter announced Elon Musk will not join the company’s board, Shopify approved a 10-for-1 stock split, and AT&T and Discovery finally closed the WarnerMedia deal.
Major US equity indexes are mixed in Friday afternoon trading and mostly lower on the week. The S&P is off just under 1% the Nasdaq fell ~3.75% and the Dow ended the week nearly flat. The backup in bond yields has been the big story again this week with treasuries set for another big weekly pullback and 10Y yields up over 30 bp. Looking ahead, March CPI will be the highlight on the economic calendar next week. The big banks also kick off Q1 earnings season on Wednesday. Inflation and supply chain pressures are expected to dominate the earnings season narrative with pricing power, wage pressure and geopolitical uncertainty rounding out the other high-profile themes.
US equities finished mostly higher Thursday, with no clear catalyst for morning weakness or the afternoon recovery. Market largely taking yesterday's FOMC minutes in stride, reflecting broad recognition of the Fed's recent hawkish turn. A look ahead to big bank earnings starting next Wednesday.
US equities lower, ending off worst levels seen earlier in the day. Growth underperformed value by ~200bps following release of FOMC Minutes. Treasuries mixed, dollar firmer, gold and bitcoin lower. No doves left at the Fed. Tilray ended higher, Avis Budget lower, and Rocket Companies failed to launch after mortgage data continues to trend lower.
US equities lower, ending near worst levels, with growth underperforming value by ~100bps. Treasuries under meaningful pressure, apparently due to the latest batch of Fedspeak. Elon Musk scores a Twitter board seat. JetBlue bids for Spirit Airlines.
US equities finished higher in a quiet Monday session. The S&P has now gained for a third straight week and is up over 3.5% in the last month. Investors are looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the March FOMC meeting minutes in what is expected to be the week's main event. Shares of Twitter surged after Elon Musk disclosed a 9% passive stake. Starbucks slumped after Howard Schulz suspended the company’s buyback program.
The major averages were little changed to modestly higher on the week. Yield curve flattening/inversions were the biggest story on the week. Fed policy path also infocus, though little new from this week's Fedspeak. Russia/Ukraine headlines remain volatile. Chinese regulators preparing to give US regulatory full access to audit reports of 200+ US listed companies. Overall corporate takeaways tilted negative.
US equities lower Thursday, with the biggest declines coming in the final minutes of trading. WTI crude ended down 7%, and is down 12% on the week, as The White House announced the biggest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Russian attacks continue in Ukraine, with another round of peace talks slated for tomorrow.
US equities were lower in afternoon trading, finishing just off session lows. Yesterday's optimism about a possible diplomatic offramp in Ukraine shifted toward skepticism today, aided by commentary from both Russian and Ukrainian officials. ADP private payrolls came in largely in line with consensus though there were upward revisions to prior months.
US equities higher in Tuesday trading, with growth again outpacing value. Positive takeaways from Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks helped bolster the market. The flattening yield curve continues to get a lot of attention, with the 2y/10y briefly inverting for the first time since Aug-19.
US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading adding to two straight weeks of gains. The bearish curve flattening trend continues to dominate the headlines with 5-30 spread inverted for first time since early 2006. Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a ceasefire, with Russia said to be prepared to allow Ukraine to join European Union but must remain militarily non-aligned. Covid also back in the headlines after Shanghai launched a two-stage lockdown of its 26M residents.
US equities mixed in Friday afternoon trading while all the major indices are higher for the week. The S&P has gained ~1.6% this week, the Nasdaq is up ~2.1% and the Dow is up ~ 35 basis points. The Bond yield backup receiving significant attention today. The 10-year yields bumped up against the 2.50% level and the 5/30 spread moved closer to an inversion. The Move seems to be a function of a barrage of sell-side calls for an even more aggressive, frontloaded Fed tightening path in response to another week of hawkish Fedspeak. Meanwhile there was some focus on the recent success of Ukrainian counteroffensives with ceasefire talks still making no progress and Russia reportedly shifting it’s primary war aim towards liberating Eastern Ukraine.
US equities higher in uneventful trading seemingly devoid of notable directional drivers. Biden backs expulsion of Russia from G20, while Zelensky's advisor expressed "cautious optimism" on latest ceasefire talks. Latest Fedspeak suggests further upside risk to rate path.
US equities finished lower in trading, ending near session lows. The market was weaker today after a period of stabilization that saw the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq up in five of the prior six sessions. It was another fairly uneventful session with no meaningful directional drivers in play.
US equities higher Tuesday. Treasuries extend recent selloff with 10Y approaching 2.4%. Banks a notable outperformer, as were China ADRs following a report that the country's regulators have asked firms with US listings to prepare for more audit disclosures. Situation in Ukraine largely unchanged...oil down today after yesterday's rally, with EU ministers split on whether to sanction Russia's energy sector. Nike rises on Q3 beat and upbeat demand and margin outlook.
US equities finished lower in Monday trading. There was nothing specific behind today's pullback, but the move lower follows a strong week where the S&P gained more than 6%. Fed takeaways continue to lean hawkish following last week's liftoff and Powell’s comments today noting the Fed is prepared to move more aggressively than 25bp per meeting if necessary. The latest oil spike is likely another overhang given some of the recent reprieve from the broader commodity surge. In M&A news, Berkshire Hathaway announced the acquisition of Alleghany for $11.6B and Thoma Bravo will acquire Anaplan for $10.7B. Shares of Boeing also fell under pressure following a 737 crash in China.
US equities mostly higher on Friday with the S&P and Nasdaq both on pace for their best weekly performance since November 2020 and the S&P now just 8% below it’s January record. The big news this week was the Federal Reserve's announcement that it will increase short-term interest rates by 0.25%, a well-telegraphed move by the central bank as it seeks to control surging inflation. Another significant factor to the upside was China's State Council pledging support for the Chinese economy and capital markets. In geopolitical news it was another busy day of Russia and Ukraine headlines, though nothing has materialized out of the latest round of negotiations. Lastly, President Biden spoke with China's Xi today amid reports the White House believes China is moving closer to supporting Moscow. Xi also pledged to reduce the economic impact of COVID measures while reiterating his support for the zero COVID policy.
US equities finished higher in Thursday trading as the S&P 500 capped its best three-day gain since November 2020. A busy day of economic data included an initial jobless claims beat as well as February housing starts and building permits also ahead of consensus. In Geopolitics, the headlines were less hopeful on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire progress, with Russia saying yesterday's Financial Times report was overstated. Meanwhile Covid headlines continue to show record cases in several countries including South Korea and Germany while cases are reportedly falling in China.
US equities finished higher in trading, ending at best levels and building on Tuesday's bounce. The S&P 500 capped its best two-day gain since Apr 2020 finishing up 2.2%, and the Nasdaq since November of 2020 ending the day up 3.8%. Supportive comments out of China, continued ceasefire hopes in Ukraine and oversold conditions were among the factors cited for the strength. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp as expected and the statement guided for ongoing increases. SEP showed median dots for seven rate hikes this year, in line with expectations.
US equities were higher in trading, finishing a bit off best levels. The market reversed yesterday's losses, when the Nasdaq finished in bear market territory for first time since March 2020. There wasn’t a clear narrative behind today's gains. There was little meaningful change in Ukraine, with Putin saying Ukraine is not serious about a diplomatic resolution and Zelensky reiterating his country is not likely to join NATO. February PPI was softer than expected, with core PPI growth its lowest since Nov 2020.
US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, reversing any morning strength with the Nasdaq finishing in bear territory for the first time since March of 2020. There was nothing specific behind this afternoon's weakness although the Market has been sensitive to signs of a diplomatic offramp in Ukraine. Covid also back on the radar with worsening trends in China after Shenzhen was placed on lockdown over the weekend. Finally, the market is looking ahead to Wednesday's FOMC meeting where it is widely expected the Fed will announce a 25 bp rate hike.
US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down for a second straight week, while the Dow was down for the fifth-straight week, the longest since May 2019. Geopolitics remained the big story for the week. While there was little progress at Thursday's meeting between the top Ukrainian and Russian diplomats, there was still a bit of optimism for a diplomatic solution. The February CPI report showed headline CPI up 0.8% m/m, higher than consensus for a 0.7% gain, while annualized CPI of 7.9% was the fastest pace since 1982.
US equities ended lower, though well off worst levels, following Wednesday's big rally. Headline February CPI came in largely in-line with consensus, and at the hottest annualized pace since 1982. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba met in Turkey, with no progress made. The ECB delivered a hawkish surprise, deciding on a faster bond-buying taper. Amazon rises on 20-for-1 stock split.
US equities finished sharply higher in trading, ending a bit off best levels. The S&P logged its best day since June 2020 (after Monday's drop that was its worst since October 2020) while the Nasdaq posted its best day since Mar 2021. Broad risk-on trade was chalked up to the latest hopes for a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. Russia said it prefers to ensure Ukraine's neutral status through talks, while Zelensky said Ukraine are willing to discuss neutrality in comments ahead of a key diplomatic meeting tomorrow.
US equities mostly lower in very choppy Tuesday trading, finishing well off a short-lived midday rally, which was chalked up to news that Ukraine may no longer be pursuing NATO membership. President Biden announced a ban on US imports of Russian energy. Increasing concerns about risks of a liquidity crisis from the surge in a number of commodities and the removal of Russian assets and liquidity from the global financial system.
US equities were notably weaker in Monday trading, finishing near the session lows. The S&P logged its worst day since October 2020, dropping nearly 3%. Ukrainian negotiators have said there has been no significant progress on a truce or ceasefire at today's third-round talks with Russia. There has also been significant attention on the US’s efforts to ban Russian oil imports, which it may consider against reluctance of its European allies. Despite the complicated geopolitical backdrop, next week's FOMC meeting remains a major focus for the market. The big economic data release this week will be February CPI on Thursday, the last inflation data ahead of the meeting.
US equities finished the week lower, with banks among the biggest decliners and energy continuing its massive ytd outperformance. Russia's invasion of Ukraine dominated the news cycle and weighed heavily on risk sentiment. Nevertheless, there were still a number of bullish talking points on the week, including declining real yields, depressed sentiment readings as a contrarian buy signal, Powell largely blessing a 25 bp liftoff, and tight credit spreads.
US equities weaker in a choppy session following yesterday's bounce, with growth lagging value by ~100bps. February ISM Non-Manufacturing missed, with lowest print in a year. Ukrainian negotiator says most recent ceasefire talks with Russia did not produce the results Kiev hoped for. Crude lower today on news an Iran nuclear deal could come within 72 hours.
US equities were higher in trading, though finished a bit off best levels. There wasn’t any specific factor behind the firmer tone in stocks. Powell said the Fed is inclined to support a 25 bp rate hike in March and while this is in line with consensus, some Fed officials have called for 50 bp.
US equities finished sharply lower as the market continues to deal with uncertainty related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Amid the geopolitical tensions, the market has essentially zeroed out the odds of a 50bp rate hike this month. President Biden makes his first SOTU address tonight.
US equities were mixed in a choppy session on Monday, ending well off worst levels on big rally into the close. The Ukrainian and Russian delegations met for talks earlier on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. According to reports, the Russian negotiator said Moscow is interested in coming to an agreement that is in the interest of both sides, however, Ukrainian President Zelensky has expressed skepticism about the potential for the talks to produce any meaningful breakthroughs. Reports have also indicated that Ukraine's bid for EU member ship could hamper ceasefire talks. The US, EU and other countries announced over the weekend they would cut off a certain number of Russian banks from SWIFT, undermine the Russian central bank's ability to defend the ruble, and hunt down assets of sanctioned Russians.
US equities higher this week, reversing weakness earlier in the week with a big Thurday-Friday rally. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the key factor in the week's price action, but markets rallied as sanctions on Russia were seen as less severe than expected, while expectations around the Fed's policy path were also a bit of a tailwind. Economic data continue to highlight the inflation overhang. The last batch of earnings included some disappointment over guidance, particularly margin headwinds from expected wage growth and little easing of supply chain and input cost pressures.
US equities finished higher, reversing big earlier declines. The Ukraine crisis remains centerstage as Russia began a broad invasion overnight, and Western powers today announced a range of additional sanctions. The situation remains very fluid, and broader questions about impacts on the international order are likely to remain unanswered for some time.
US equities finished lower in trading, ending near worst levels and adding to Tuesday's notable slide. Geopolitical tensions continued to present headline risk for the market despite the usual discussion about how they have historically not had a sustained impact. Ukraine continued to take up most of the headline oxygen. Diplomacy remains on hold and more sanctions have been announced from the West (including on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline).
US equities end lower after failing to sustain an afternoon move off session lows. The Russia-Ukraine crisis dominated the headlines today, with President Biden (and European counterparts) announcing sanctions following Russia's recognition of and invasion into eastern breakaway regions. Still, the door for diplomacy was left open.
US equities lower in a week of choppy trading, with the market sensitive to noisy headlines regarding Ukraine. January FOMC meeting minutes offered little new information, but a dovish tone moved the odds of a 50 bp liftoff in March back below 50%.
US equities lower Thursday, ending just off worst levels. Rising Russia-Ukraine tensions dominated headlines, but a hawkish Fed is never far from investor's minds.
US equities finished narrowly mixed in trading. Major averages ended a bit off best levels after reversing earlier declines with the rally following January FOMC minutes. Geopolitical tensions were a renewed headline risk throughout the better part of the day as Blinken and Zelensky both said there wasn’t a sign yet of a Russian pullback after Tuesday's de-escalation headlines. January US retail sales were notably higher than consensus after December's pullback. January industrial production was ahead as well.
US Equities higher Tuesday, finishing near best levels. Energy a big sector laggard with some softening of Ukraine tensions and positive commentary on US-Iran nuclear talks. Treasuries under renewed pressure today with the 10-year near 1.95%. Market largely waiting for Thursday's CPI print.
US equities finished mixed in trading, coming off some late-afternoon strength in the last half hour to finish just off session lows. It was a fairly quiet session with no directional drivers in view, coming ahead of another busy week of Q4 earnings reports (another 83 S&P firms this week) and, more importantly, the release of the January CPI on Thursday.
US equities mostly higher for the second straight week. Lots of moving pieces in this week's price action, with both earnings (notably, mixed reports from Big Tech) and macro influences. Developments from ECB and BoE meetings feed concerns that hawkish global monetary policy repricing has room to run, while persistent inflation pressures continue to dominate the broader earnings narrative.
U.S. equities sharply lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. Internet names under outsized pressure as FB fell ~26% after earnings. More hawkish than expected developments from the BoE and ECB also an overhang. AMZN up big post-market on earnings.
US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, ending near the day’s best levels. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now gained over the last four sessions, with S&P ~ 6% and Nasdaq up ~ 8% since lows on January 27th. The market largely looked past an unexpected decline for January ADP private payrolls amid widespread expectations of Omicron-related but temporary weakness. Inflation remains an area of concern with Eurozone CPI coming in hotter than expected in January following renewed upward pressure in ISM prices paid and a continued focus on elevated commodity prices. Earnings season continues with a smattering of companies yet to report.
US equities finished a very quiet session higher, strengthening into the close. January ISM Manufacturing slightly ahead of consensus, with prices paid at its highest level since August. Several Fed speakers push back on the idea of a 50bp rate hike.
US equities finished the day higher, near best levels, though stocks are still on track for steep monthly losses. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and small-cap Russell all posted its best day this year. Today's upside was tabbed to factors including buy the dip, oversold conditions, strong corporate and consumer balance sheets, Omicron peak/economic normalization, still depressed real yields and resilient inflows.
US equities finished the week higher after a strong Friday afternoon rally. Still, sentiment remains cautious, and the path of least resistance seems to remain to the downside. It was a big week of earnings, and we've got another big one on deck.
US equities finish a choppy session lower, with the week's pattern of dramatic midday reversals continuing. Q4 GDP tops consensus. Semis lag on disappointing guidance. AAPL, V higher after-hours following earnings.
US equities finished mostly lower in trading, a bit off worst levels. Today's FOMC meeting ended with no change to the benchmark rate, as expected, though the policy statement said it will soon be appropriate to raise the fed funds rate. It was also said asset purchases would end in early March, while balance sheet shrinking is to start shortly after liftoff.
U.S. equities lower Tuesday, improving in the afternoon as they did Monday, but this time closing off best levels. Fed's hawkish shift still the big headwind, though the market looking ahead to tomorrow's FOMC meeting for hints. Little reprieve from earnings, which have largely underwhelmed.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading, digging their way out of a hole that at one point saw the S&P 500 move firmly into correction territory. Market staged a significant rebound from its morning lows, which saw S&P was on track for its worst day since April 2020 and was down more than 10% from its 3-Jan closing record. This week's FOMC meeting expected to set the stage for March liftoff. While it is still very early (only 13% of S&P 500 has reported), earnings season has failed to provide the cushion for the market that some had expected. Defense Secretary Austin put 8,500 US troops on high alert for possible deployment to Eastern Europe in preparation for a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
US equities sharply lower this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq seeing their biggest pullbacks since the start of the pandemic. Market still coming to grips with a more hawkish Fed, while negative sentiment surrounding Q4 earnings remained an overhang. A very rough week for pandemic winners NFLX, PTON. January FOMC meeting next week should set the stage for March liftoff.
US equities lower, again unable to sustain an earlier bounce attempt. Latest initial jobless claims a bit elevated, possibly due to Omicron. A couple highlights from Biden's presser yesterday. Peloton continues to tumble.
US equitiestraded lower on Wednesday following notable pressure on Tuesday. The Nasdaq is now down over 10% from its record close on November 19th, while the S&P 500 is off over 5% from the peak on January 3rd. A choppy session today with several moving pieces while investors wait for a more meaningful pickup in earnings activity and the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In corporate news, Tegna is reportedly near a deal to be acquired by Apollo and Standard General for $9B and Alliance Data Systems took a hit on news that BJ’s Wholesale Club will move its valuable credit-card partnership to Capital One Financial.
U.S. equities lower, with the Nasdaq now 10% below its closing high on November 19th. Treasuries under notable pressure, with two-year yields above 1% for the first time since 2020, and the 10Y above 1.85%. MSFT to acquire ATVI. GS falls on earnings, with expenses and equity trading under scrutiny.
US equities were lower this week, with major indices adding to last week's declines. Headline December CPI was up 7.0% y/y, the fastest pace since June 1982. Fedspeak continued to take a hawkish turn this week, with multiple speakers making the case for three or perhaps four 2022 rate hikes and liftoff now generally seen taking place at the March FOMC meeting. The Q4 earnings season officially opened on Friday with reports from several big banks. Overall, the season is expected to see a nearly 22% y/y increase from S&P 500 constituents.
US equities weaker, ending near worst levels, with the growth/tech selloff the big theme of the day. Little of note from Brainard's confirmation hearing. Several articles out dealing with the potential political fallout of inflation for the Democrats and Biden. JPM, C, WFC earnings out tomorrow.
The stock market stabilization trend continued today, with a few dynamics in focus. The big event today was the in-line December CPI print in the face of a seemingly non-stop ramp in concerns about stickier inflation. Headline CPI posted its biggest y/y increase in December since 1982 though it is largely in line with consensus, while core CPI came in a bit hotter than expected with continued focus on outsized vehicle price increases and pressure from supply chain constraints.
U.S. equities higher, with growth catching a bounce. Oversold conditions and renewed "buy the dip" calls getting most of the credit. Powell's Senate confirmation hearing testimony uneventful, while comments from other Fed officials continue to lean hawkish. Signs Omicron surge may be past its peak.