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Following Trump’s latest flip-flop over the weekend as he continued to desperately search in vain for an off-ramp to the highly unpopular war that he started over five months ago, Iran accused him of “psychological warfare”.

An exasperated Wall Street would probably agree. Traders are dancing in the dark. Trying to get a handle on what the plans are, if any, for bringing this conflict (and the resulting energy price volatility) to a suitable and sustainable conclusion is proving impossible and traders are forced to spend their time these days reacting to raging social media posts as well as fantastical press releases and impromptu news conferences that are often jam-packed with utter nonsense and shameless lies.

Oil prices tanked and interest rates eased after Trump’s climbdown from his frenzied apocalyptic threats which had included promises of “decapitation”, offering support for both stocks and bonds which both rallied hard when Wall Street opened on Monday and kept up a positive momentum all day. Big Tech stocks enjoyed a particularly dazzling session with dip-buyers going all-in.

The orgy of tech stock bargain-hunting intensified on Tuesday, boosted by sensational pre-market earnings reports from Palantir and giant AI beneficiary, Caterpillar and the indexes, especially the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100, experienced another fabulous session with the S&P 500 index notching a new all-time record high for the first time since June 2nd.

After the close SpaceX, thus far a total dumpster fire of an investment that has essentially been in free-fall for almost its entire existence as a publicly-traded stock, reported almost half a billion dollars in losses in Q2 and colossal AI spending plans and AMD surprised Wall Street with a weak outlook. Both stocks got slammed.

Trump assured us of a deal with Iran “within hours” , but Wall Street wasn’t going to fall for that again and when markets opened on Wednesday, the dip-buyers took a breather and stocks cooled off despite solid earnings and bright outlooks from heavyweights Eli Lilly and Disney. The indexes all pulled back a bit by the close.

After all of Trump’s bombastic fanfare, for the umpteenth time a promised resolution failed to materialize, indeed in the end the US was not even party to the only announced deal of the day as Iran and Oman agreed on a proposed Strait of Hormuz toll-based shipping route which excludes US and Israeli vessels. 2026’s best-performing stock, Sandisk (up 350%), missed lofty earnings estimates after the bell and got spanked. The effect was felt in Asia where the tech-heavy South Korean market crashed again.

Also on Wall Street’s mind on Thursday was upcoming employment data and the fallout and attempted damage control from the badly-botched start to the reign of Fed chairman Kevin Warsh (see my report from last week and .. AND I QUOTE .. below), including the rather alarming revelation that Trump has been constantly calling him since his appointment. The early-week monster rally continued to run out of steam and, for the second session in a row, the indexes closed fractionally lower.

The Jobs Report on Friday morning was a complicated puzzle, with shockingly negative net job creation in the month of July and wages continuing to lag inflation, but the shrinking overall workforce meant that the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%. Bets on a Fed rate hike in September were pared back (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below), so interest rates sank and stocks and bonds bounced on the news with the S&P 500 again returning to all-time record high territory to close out a very solid week, the index’s best five-day showing since April.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Despite last week’s tech recovery, it is large-cap, high quality, high profitability, value-focused stocks and profitable small caps with free cash flow that are currently "paying" investors to take equity risk from a valuation perspective, while tech-heavy, AI-sensitive, growth-focused names, from loss-making small firms to mega-cap companies, are not really "rewarding risk" right now. The biggest portfolio downside risk clearly lies with the NASDAQ, where there is no real cushion left if the AI spending narrative stumbles again or if the 10-year Treasury yield starts threatening to break through 5.00% again.

• Meme stock “investors” who still rely on TikTok and YouTube nonsense for their investment advice continue to hemorrhage money with GameStop last week falling to its lowest level in years.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

The really smart people over at Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) have produced a goldmine of a video outlining financial planning considerations for those in their 20s, 30s and 40s that very much aligns with my own approach.

Definitely worth your time.

Anglia Advisors clients are now able to access customized model portfolios, including from Dimensional Fund Advisors, in managed investment accounts - contact me for more details.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“[Treasury Secretary] Bessent and [Fed chairman] Warsh are a double whammy to global markets that investors can’t ignore.”

Rajeev De Mello at Gama Asset Management, on growing bond market concerns about the recent direction of US central bank policy, Fed independence from political interference and the possible re-emergence of global bond vigilantes.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 3.5% last week, is higher by 5.1% over the last three months and is up by 14.0% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 3.1% last week, is higher by 6.4% over the last three months and is up by 23.0% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 3.0% last week, is higher by 2.5% over the last three months and is up by 16.2% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE 3.625%*(unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.87%(3.83% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.19%(4.28% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.35%(4.45% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.65%(4.75% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.20%(5.28% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.19% (5.27% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committeeat periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Moving in lockstep with the Fed Funds interest rate*, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.69%

One week ago: 6.66%, one month ago: 6.47%, one year ago: 6.63%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on September 16th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 43% probability (72% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 57% probability (28% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With three more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One increase, 45% probability(a week ago: one increase, 41% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rateof 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 73%

One week ago: 67%, one month ago: 63%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

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Traders were very much on edge all weekend, bracing for a frenetic week with multiple impactful earnings reports, a Fed interest rate-setting meeting, tariffs suddenly front and center again, $100 oil and who knows what from an increasingly erratic Trump.

Conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that US foreign policy and military strategy is now being dictated by the interplay between the oil price and the election calendar and the main reason for Sunday’s pause in US airstrikes was that the “100/4” threshold had been breached again ($100+ oil and $4.00+ at the pump) with the midterms on the horizon and “coincidentally” right before a Fed interest rate decision.

Markets got off to a strong start on Monday with the stock indexes staging an early relief rally as oil prices fell back sharply. But a wobble quickly set in as chip makers got hammered again on growing fears that Chinese AI competition may flood the market with cheaper and more powerful products along with worries about persistent circular financing and the indexes closed essentially unchanged.

The price of Nvidia, the largest component stock in large cap indexes, fell so hard that by lunchtime it was no longer the world’s most valuable company and Apple was top dog again.

The chip rout deepened overnight in Asia as AI greed turned to fear, with the South Korean market crashing by 11%. But solid earnings from the likes of Coca-Cola, Ford, Paypal and Boeing impressed Wall Street on Tuesday and, as the plunge in semiconductor stocks eased moderately, the S&P 500 index drifted slightly higher, while the NASDAQ-100 closed marginally in the red before the baton was passed to a still-jittery Asia.

There was an unusual whiff of intrigue as Fed Day dawned in New York on Wednesday. Going into the 2pm ET announcement, the market probabilities were at 30% for a 0.25% Fed Funds Rate hike and 70% for no change.

As it turned out, the FOMC voted not to change the rate with three dissenting committee members voting for a hike. Chairman Warsh held a babbling, muddled and evasive word salad of a press conference that only amplified concerns that he is in Trump’s pocket. The three dissents indicate the direction of travel and a rate increase at the next meeting on September 16th is still very much on the table (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

Warsh’s utter disaster of a performance (see .. AND I QUOTE .. below) poked the bear in the form of bond vigilantes who constantly fear a feeble Fed response to inflation and that was bad news for long term bond investors, variable rate mortgage holders or new home buyers (see AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE below).

While short term interest rates eased, longer term interest rates exploded higher with the 30-year Treasury rate touching more twenty-year highs, breaking through 5.20%. Stocks tumbled, especially the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 which entered official correction territory after suffering its longest losing streak since the dark days of October 2022. A further escalation and expansion of the Middle East conflict didn’t help. Meta, RobinHood and Qualcomm all disappointed with earnings after the close but Microsoft and Starbucks surprised to the upside.

Wall Street was merciless in its punishment of Meta on Thursday, but rewarded Microsoft by adding half a trillion dollars to its value, a record for a one-day gain in an individual stock. Dip-buyers finally dived back in, scooping up beaten-down tech names in particular (except for Meta), partly triggered by a cooling PCE annual inflation reading of 3.7% and despite an underwhelming annualized Q2 GDP growth estimate of 1.5%.

The indexes all closed substantially higher, enjoying their best day in over a year. Bonds, however, made no such recovery as interest rates stayed stubbornly elevated. Apple’s after-hours earnings were perfectly fine but traders focused on the supply and cost concerns over component parts and memory for its products and the stock price dumped, pushing it back to second place again in the Biggest Company In The World standings after just four days at the top. There were no such reservations about Amazon though, after it blasted through expectations with its report and the stock zoomed higher.

The risk-on euphoria spread to Asia where the indexes bounced back spectacularly from their recent plunges, with South Korea jumping by a record 18%. The bargain-hunting-driven burst of momentum initially carried into New York on Friday and the indexes got off to a fast start helped by predictably decent Q2 earnings from Chevron and Exxon-Mobil. Stocks closed the session higher again, managing to close out a wildly volatile week in the green but still lower for the month of July.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Despite its pre-IPO price of $135, no-one who get swept up in the hype got any “can’t miss” SpaceX stock for less than $150 on the first day of trading. Unless they dumped it quickly, they were down at least 30% last week in a little over thirty trading days. Anyone unlucky enough to have bought at the high on June 16th has seen the value of their investment cut in half already. And all this before August 6th’s unlock of 20% of the total number of shares at which time insiders can begin selling their stocks. Maybe people should have read Josh Brown’s Instagram postfirst.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“The financial environment is much more complex now, and it is much easier to make bad decisions” .

Economist and top financial columnist Allison Schrager of Bloomberg asks; why are Americans so financially illiterate?

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Warsh suggested Fed policymakers should follow the bond market rather than lead it, the bond market’s response was to punch him in the face.”

Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management, following Fed chairman Warsh’s credibility issues last week (see above).

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.8% last week, is higher by 3.9% over the last three months and is up by 10.1% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 0.6% last week, is higher by 4.5% over the last three months and is up by 18.8% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 1.4% last week, is higher by 2.4% over the last three months and is up by 12.8% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE 3.625%*(unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.83%(3.85% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.28% (4.18% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.45%(4.28% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.75% (4.55% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.28%(5.07% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.27% (5.06% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committeeat periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Moving in lockstep with the Fed Funds interest rate*, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.66%

One week ago: 6.58%, one month ago: 6.45%, one year ago: 6.72%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on September 16th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 72% probability (82% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 28% probability (18% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With three more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• Two increases, 42% probability(a week ago: one increase, 43% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rateof 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 67%

One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 62%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

“Not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz”, according to Iran on Sunday as the so-called “three-week skirmish” approached its five-month anniversary amid daily US airstrikes and zero signs of any resolution.

Stock markets around the world are still considerably higher than they were on the day the conflict formally began back on February 28th, but the oil price spiking back through $90 and the average price at the pump in the US over $4.00 again risked making for a miserable start to the week for global stocks, adding to the persistent jitters about AI overspending (funded in many cases by debt).

Asian and European indexes duly had a rough day on Monday but Wall Street was more upbeat with bargain-hunters gently nibbling early on following the previous week’s chip/semiconductor stock carnage, but they were soon beaten back by inflation doomsayers and the US indexes closed a touch lower.

After hours, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on many Canadian goods under obscure legislation dating back to the 1930s, vaguely citing “discriminatory treatment” of US exports, setting up either a completely unnecessary bust-up with a major trading partner or else yet another pointless TACO episode. The smart money is on the latter.

With a brief pause in the toxic Iran war rhetoric, chip stock dip-buying resumed on Tuesday morning and picked up steam as the day wore on and the indexes all closed nicely in the green.

After taking a day off, Trump issued a barrage of more angry social media threats of violence against Iranians on Wednesday and stocks stumbled out of the gate on the back of relentlessly rocketing energy prices and soaring interest rates. But they later recovered on more of the AI tunnel vision which continues to feed the bulls, with more bottom-fishing ahead of the start of tech earnings to record another solidly positive session.

The main event though was right after the close when Alphabet/Google announced respectable earnings but scary AI spending plans and Tesla badly missed profitability expectations despite a bump in EV sales. The reports spooked after-hours traders and both stocks sank.

When Wall Street opened on Thursday, the bond market sent a clear message of inflation concern, selling off hard again as interest rates jumped across the board, including the impactful 10-year Treasury rising to its highest rate in over eighteen months and the 30-year up to a level not seen in almost twenty years (see INTEREST RATES below).

With no help whatsoever from Alphabet/Google or Tesla, both of which got thoroughly brutalized as punishment for their disappointing reports the night before, stock markets completely broke down as oil prices roared back into triple-digits and the week’s index gains were more than wiped out in one horrible session which resulted in the Mag 7 stocks losing a combined $800 billion in value.

After hours, Intel shattered expectations with a blowout Q2 earnings report but Trump continued raising the temperature, announcing a sweeping new set of tariffs on 60 countries representing 99.4% of US imports. Many of its victims are already formulating their retaliation.

Financial markets seemed unsure how to react on Friday, eventually settling for not doing much. Interest rates paused their rocket ride and stocks drifted aimlessly throughout the session, closing unchanged but on edge ahead of geopolitical uncertainty over the weekend and a monster upcoming week with a kind of live Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday and a truckload of earnings reports including from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron and many more.

The downside risk for stocks feels greater now than it has been in some time with high valuations, intensifying war, a rebuild of Trump’s highly damaging tariff wall, spiraling interest rates and a worsening inflation outlook, but there is still a world where mega-cap earnings can possibly come to the rescue.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Until somewhat recently, the market’s view of AI spending was “the bigger, the better” as investors embraced the idea that the more the hyperscalers spent on AI, the more of a windfall they’d eventually receive. However, that’s changing, primarily due to two factors; i) the sheer amount of money being thrown at the limited supply of AI equipment has caused the prices of tech components such as semiconductors or memory to skyrocket and ii) these hyperscalers seem to be caught in an arms race, as spending increases by one elicit a “we’re behind” response from others who react by boosting their own expenditure. Investors don’t want to see spending being slashed (that would be bad for everyone), but nor do they want to see such an enormous acceleration either, because that can end up depressing free cash flow at these firms. “Restraint, please” seems to be the message from Wall Street.

• Less than a month ago, oil prices seemed poised to fall into the $60’s. By last week they were back above $100, once again threatening to ignite even higher inflation around the world. The job of global central banks is getting harder and harder when it comes to interest rate-setting decisions and the next such test for the Federal Reserve is on deck for this coming Wednesday (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

New York City has now slipped to fourth place behind San Francisco, Miami and LA (in that order) in the race for the unwanted crown of the most expensive city to live in America.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“What the market is pricing is a scenario where everything goes right and there are no risks. That is not a bullish picture.”

Sebastian Raedler, Head of European equity strategy, Bank of America

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 0.8% last week, is higher by 3.3% over the last three months and is up by 8.2% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.8% last week, is higher by 5.3% over the last three months and is up by 18.4% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 0.1% last week, is higher by 1.0% over the last three months and is up by 10.5% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE 3.625%*(unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.96%(3.85% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.33% (4.18% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.43%(4.28% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.69% (4.55% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.18%(5.07% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.16% (5.06% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committeeat periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Moving in lockstep with the Fed Funds interest rate*, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.58%

One week ago: 6.55%, one month ago: 6.48%, one year ago: 6.74%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 38% probability (13% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 62% probability (87% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• Two increases, 40% probability(a week ago: one increase, 43% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rateof 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 66%

One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 61%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

The US/Iran ceasefire memorandum is obviously in tatters. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a reinstatement of the blockade by Trump who also briefly proposed an idea to create his own toll system to pocket 20% from all shipping traffic (within 24 hours, he was forced to clumsily back-track on this bonkers plan). The US carried out more air strikes, prompting a resumption of Iranian attacks on multiple military targets throughout the region.

Financial markets have not so far priced in any outcome other than the conflict being comfortably in the rear-view mirror very soon. If the certainty behind this conviction were to begin to crumble, there could be an urgent need to reprice risk assets lower and this significant escalation over the weekend drove up energy prices and interest rates and sent overseas stocks reeling on Monday, particularly in the highly volatile South Korean market.

Wall Street took stock prices lower in a more orderly fashion over the course of the session, the decline led by Tech/AI names but without the whiff of panic that was sensed in parts of Asia.

Sky-high expectations means that simply beating Q2 earnings estimates is not necessarily good enough any more and misses are being severely punished. As an example, Citibank and GE’s stock prices fell back despite very solid reports.

On the other hand, IBM was slaughtered on Tuesday after a disappointing report, losing a quarter of its total value after enduring its biggest one-day percentage price dive since “Hey Jude” (which just enjoyed a revival among us recently-devastated English soccer fans) topped the charts in 1968. IBM’s customers are turning away from the 115-year old juggernaut to younger, more nimble AI companies.

However, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo all smashed through estimates by enough to move higher, in some cases to new all-time record highs.

CPI retail inflation for June dropped to 3.50% annualized, reflecting last month’s fall in oil prices. This eased some of the fears about a Fed Funds Rate hike on July 29th (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below) which drove interest rates back down across the board and stocks reacted positively, closing nicely higher.

PPI wholesale inflation data released on Wednesday reinforced the CPI numbers by pulling back from recent highs. Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and Bank of New York joined the ballooning list of financial firms issuing spectacular earnings, helping to somewhat offset market concerns about the chaotically deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, fueled by increasingly intense threats of violence from Trump. The indexes hugged the flatline all session and closed little changed.

Americans still can’t stop spending as shown by the Retail Sales release on Thursday morning which was the cherry on top of a very strong week of data.

However, the indexes drifted lower again over the course of the day on intensifying chip/AI stock weakness and a growing sense that an increasingly erratic Trump may be losing whatever control he felt he had left over the Iran war and that the market’s previous assumptions about a swift, clean end to the conflict may now need to be recalibrated.

In a weird, rambling address to the nation on Thursday night, Trump made wild and unsubstantiated claims about electoral fraud including directly accusing China of hacking, data theft and interference just a few weeks before his scheduled meeting with Chinese premier Xi in Washington DC. He also found time to include a highly misleading plug for his largely unimpressive Trump Child Accounts.

China remained in focus on Friday with the unveiling of Kimi K3, a potentially serious competitor to the likes of Nvidia, Broadcom, OpenAI, Anthropic and the rest. Asian markets dumped and what had been a selloff in chip/AI names on Wall Street quickly turned into a rout as traders rushed to exit the exact same positions that had driven the major Q2 rally.

This was enough to tip the chipmaker stock index into an official bear market as the NASDAQ got battered, not helped by a disappointing Netflix earnings report and subsequent share price plunge for the major index component. The S&P 500 got off a little more lightly, but still dropped to close near its lows of the day to finish up a losing week.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

It’s time to completely rethink the financial value of home ownership.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Inflation has been too high, for too long and does not appear to be on track all the way back to 2% [the Fed’s official target]. The inflation risks are to the upside.”

Lorie Logan, Dallas Federal Reserve President and FOMC voting member

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 1.3% last week, is higher by 4.9% over the last three months and is up 9.6% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.5% last week, is higher by 6.9% over the last three months and is up 19.9% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 1.2% last week, is unchanged over the last three months and is up 11.1% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE 3.625%*(unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.85%(3.85% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.18%(4.21% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.28%(4.30% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.55%(4.56% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.07%(5.08% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.06%(5.06% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.55%

One week ago: 6.49%, one month ago: 6.38%, one year ago: 6.75%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 13% probability (34% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 87% probability (66% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One increase, 43% probability (a week ago: one increase, 38% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 66%

One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 57%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

After successfully fixing the World Cup over the long weekend, Trump is finding Iran to be far less willing than FIFA to bend to his every whim and certainly not surrendering by any definition of the word, let alone the “unconditional” kind that the US president claims to require at a minimum. The sixty-day deadline countdown continued inexorably with no sign whatsoever of any progress towards a workable and sustainable resolution to the conflict.

Wall Street was still keeping the faith on Monday, however, and its focus was mostly elsewhere. Astonishingly strong Q1 earnings and mostly solid Q2 economic data continue to resonate and stock indexes marched steadily back towards record high levels with traders starting to pile back into the tech trade.

Wild volatility returned to South Korean markets on Tuesday as Samsung (with a 22% weighting in the local KOSPI index) failed to meet high expectations in an interim earnings report and trading circuit breakers were triggered again as the index fell over 8% at one point.

This negatively impacted other Asian markets and then brought Monday’s tech rally in the US to an abrupt halt and all of the indexes closed the session in the red, not helped by more firefights in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed US bombing of Iran which sent oil prices and interest rates spiraling higher.

SpaceX, already down 30% from its post-IPO high, joined the NASDAQ-100 index on Tuesday morning as well as the widely-followed Russell 1000index (and is therefore now a component of the popular QQQ ETF and plenty of other index-tracking funds) and the stock price promptly collapsed by another 7% to below its IPO-day opening price, meaning that anyone who bought the stock and didn’t quickly sell it is now losing money.

The stock market’s almost blind confidence in a swift resolution to the Iran war was shaken on Wednesday as Trump appeared to have a hissy fit while rampaging around the NATO summit in Portugal like a bull in a china shop, calling the Iranians “scum” and “liars” , characterizing peace negotiations as “a waste of time” and declaring the ceasefire to be “over”.

He also began rambling about Greenland again, lashed out at any European he could think of (especially anyone from Spain) and nonsensically blamed Starmer’s recent fall from power on the UK prime minister’s reluctance to join in the apparently “very popular” deadly attack on Iran back in February.

Stocks tumbled at the open as the continuing oil price surge put higher inflation and thereby possible interest rate hikes back in play, but then dip buyers seemed to feel that enough was enough for the time being at least, scooping up many of the battered tech names pulling the indexes back to close barely changed.

There appears to be some appetite for raising the Fed Funds Rate among several voting members of the FOMC, according to the minutes released from its last meeting. Nevertheless, US indexes spent the day drifting steadily northwards all day on Thursday with ongoing bargain-hunting among tech and small cap names in particular and closed nicely higher.

Q2 earnings season kicked off on Friday with Delta Airlines getting things started, but things really ramp up this week with most of the the big banks reporting on Tuesday morning. A record-breaking $27 billion blockbuster US IPO from South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix was well oversubscribed and the price jumped on day one. The indexes had a relatively quiet session, but continued on an upward glide-path to close the week pretty much where they opened it.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• According to Dimensional Fund Advisors research, i) the average age that a woman is widowed in the US is 59 years old, ii) 72% of women aged 85 or older are widowed, more than double the number of men of the same age at just 35%, iii) US women live 5.6 years longer than US men on average and incur greater healthcare costs over their lifetimes, iv) the average woman in the US earns about 18% less in salary than the average man during their working lives, v)on average, women receive about $5,000 less in annual Social Security retirement benefits than men, vi) two-thirds of women who use a financial/investment professional “feel misunderstood” by their advisor, which is important since only 36% of women are “confident” about their investment knowledge, compared to 59% of men (confidence and competence should not be confused; men and women consistently show equal levels of financial literacy).

• The “quick buck” crowd is having a tough time of it lately with crypto’s complete meltdown, gold and silver’s collapse from recent highs and SpaceX’s crumble (see above). Things got worse as 2026’s most talked-about hipster ETF, Roundhill’s memory and digital storage stock fund (DRAM), just crashed 25% in only eight trading days.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

The math behind why you need to invest in the broad stock market.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Markets weren’t initially taking the re-escalation in US-Iran tensions too seriously, but today, that seems to have changed.”

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com on Wednesday.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.5% last week, is higher by 10.8% over the last three months and is up 10.4% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.7% last week, is higher by 13.3% over the last three months and is up 20.3% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 0.3% last week, is higher by 5.0% over the last three months and is up 13.1% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.85%(3.82% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.21%(4.14% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.30%(4.23% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.56%(4.49% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.08%(4.99% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.06%(4.98% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.49%

One week ago: 6.43%, one month ago: 6.50%, one year ago: 6.72%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 34% probability (18% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 66% probability (82% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One increase, 38% probability (a week ago: one increase, 42% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 66%

One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 56%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

The truce between the US and Iran came under severe stress over the weekend with both sides firing on one another and each blaming the other. But there was some geopolitical de-escalation on Monday that pushed stocks higher to start a holiday-shortened week, despite interest rates climbing steeply on the back of ongoing Fed rate hike fears.

There was a flurry of Supreme Court decisions, including upholding the concept of birthright citizenship, confirming the US president as an adjudicated sex offender, opening the door to unconstrained electoral spending by political parties and - more importantly for Wall Street - restricting presidential ability to fire Federal Reserve officials on a whim, somewhat calming recent growing fears about central bank independence.

Tech bargain-hunters dipped their toes back into the water and the major indexes snapped their five-day losing streak with some solid gains.

The month, the quarter and the first half of 2026 came to a close on Tuesday with oil prices dipping below $70 and stocks continuing their reboundfrom the difficult previous week, led by more Big Tech/AI buying.

It can be difficult to trust pricing around key calendar dates like this because of fund manager window dressing, but what is not in doubt is that we had just experienced the best quarter for the S&P 500 (up by 15%) since the big COVID bounce of 2020 and the NASDAQ’s second-best quarter (up 21% despite a record volume one-day fall just last month) since its recovery from the dot-com crash of 2001.

See my Q2 Market Review

That said, financial markets are now entering what historically risks being the poorest-performing quarter of the year, even though markets do still rise about two-thirds of the time in Q3, including last year which saw a 7.5% jump in the S&P 500.

July, Q3 and H2 kicked off on Wednesday with a snoozer. Attention was mostly focused on readying for the employment data the next day. The indexes all lost a bit of ground, even though a lot more S&P 500 stocks rose than fell over the course of the session.

Another bout of chip stock selling put Asian stocks on the back foot on Thursday. The latest pre-market US Jobs Report was generally a disappointment with considerably lower job creation than expected last month and downward revisions to previous data, although the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% as the size of the entire labor force contracted.

Wall Street liked the idea of the Fed having a bit of breathing room when it comes to maybe having to raise the Fed Funds Rate and interest rates eased back from their early week spike as traders pared back on bets on any imminent hike (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

Stocks initially moved higher but then fell back again on renewed tech weakness. Volume was muted ahead of the long holiday weekend and the indexes ended the day little changed, but mostly higher for the shortened week.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• By many measures we just entered the eighth longest bull market in stocks since the Second World War at just over three and a half years. Of the previous seven, the average total length is around seven years with the shortest being about five years. We may have a way to go ..

• According to the Federal Reserve, the top 20% of earners now account for 58% of all personal spending in the US, the highest proportion on record. Consequently, the bottom 80% of earners account for just 42%, the lowest on record. To put this into perspective, in the 1990s these groups accounted for roughly equal proportions of total personal spending at around 50% each. The K is getting steeper.

• Iran is becoming more and more vocal about its intent to monetize the Strait of Hormuz using a toll system whenever it properly reopens, something it only figured out how to do after being attacked by the US. This is raising the stakes and adding complication when it comes to negotiations.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“All sorts of crazy economic ideas are being taken seriously lately.” Bloomberg’s brilliant Allison Schrager bemoans the dubious idea of AI and government hooking up.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Those numbers are too high.”

Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and voting member of the Federal Reserve rate setting committee, referring to US inflation data. The Fed traditionally combats growing inflation by raising interest rates.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 1.7%% last week, is higher by 13.9% over the last three months and is up 9.8% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 0.1% last week, is higher by 18.7% over the last three months and is up 21.4% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 0.1% last week, is higher by 10.0% over the last three months and is up 13.1% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.82% (3.83% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.14%(4.08% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.23%(4.12% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.49%(4.38% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.99%(4.87% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.98%(4.87% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.43%

One week ago: 6.49%, one month ago: 6.49%, one year ago: 6.67%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 18% probability (30% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 82% probability (70% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One increase, 42% probability (a week ago: one increase, 42% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 66%

One week ago: 64%, one month ago: 53%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Over the weekend, we were treated to the bizarre sight of the US and Iran delegations chummily sitting down together in Switzerland against a backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again after being sort of open for all of two days, Israel continuing its deadly assault on Lebanon and Trump again taking to social media to threaten more and more violence.

By the time US markets opened on Monday, UK prime minister Starmer had resigned and Andy Burnham will become the country’s sixth leader in seven years next month after a weeks-long, slow-moving political coup. Initially at least, local financial markets appeared to be taking it in stride.

The US indexes drifted lower in a vacuum of any credible US/Iran news beyond the endless tiresome spin from both sides, dragged down by profit-taking mainly in Big Tech/AI names including a rout of SpaceX, now down over 27% from its post-IPO high, having shed over $600 billion in value and reduced Musk from a trillionaire to a mere billionaire.

Asian stocks crashed on Tuesday with trading halted by circuit-breakers in South Korea in the midst of a 10% plunge on a wave of selling of chip stocks, which spilled into Europe and the US on renewed fears that all this AI buildout is simply costing too much money amidst far-from-certain customer demand and could have resulted in over-valuation of many names including on Wall Street where the NASDAQ-100 tumbled by well over 3%.

Things calmed down in Asia on Wednesday and there was an initial hard rebound when markets opened in New York as dip-buyers waded back in looking for bargains after Tuesday’s global chip-wreck, but they quickly withdrew as tech worries set in again and the indexes closed a touch lower for the session.

With exquisite timing, chip/memory giant Micron, considered by many to be the new Nvidia, reported earnings after hours in a jittery environment and crushed all the analyst estimates. The stock soared in the after-market.

This looked like it was just the boost that the stalled-out rally needed and US tech stocks came roaring out of the gate on Thursday, but once again doubts crept in later in the day after Apple and Microsoft were heavily punished following announcements of sweeping product price increases, OpenAI apparently considering a postponement of its IPO due to turbulent tech market conditions and reported firefights in the Strait of Hormuz.

PCE inflation came in as expected at 4.1%, its highest level for over three years and more than double the Fed’s 2.0% target (which it hasn’t met for more than five years). Stocks closed slightly lower on the day.

Following more tough sessions in Japan and South Korea, the US indexes went nowhere on Friday, essentially hugging the flatline all session but did complete a fifth straight day in the red for the first time this year, closing out a disappointing week but one that could definitely have been a lot worse.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• The best-performing stock of the so-called Magnificent Seventhis year (Alphabet/Google) doesn’t even make the list of the 200 top-performing stocks of 2026. The AI investment cycle is maturing to a stage that is increasingly sensitive to more traditional equity market fundamentals and standards and the last few years’ outperformance of the Mag 7 could be coming to its inevitable end.

• Gold and crypto both continue to disappoint their ever-dwindling armies of retail super-fans and prices crapped out again last week with Bitcoin in tatters, dipping below $59k and now worth less than half what it was just nine months ago. The “quick buck” crowd are turning their limited attention span to other outlets; prediction markets, sports betting and zero-day options contracts, for example, to feed their depravity and are pulling assets from their gold and crypto holdings to plough into these shiny new toys.

• Oil prices have now round-tripped to where they were on the eve of the war. The same cannot be said of shorter term interest rates. On February 27th, the two-year Treasury rate was 3.38%. Last week it touched 4.24% before pulling back. That’s a major and sustained shift and reflective of a significant change in the outlook for where the Fed Funds Rate is heading (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

How big should your emergency fund be? It’s not just a math question.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“The number-one job of the hedge-fund manager is not to make sure that you can retire with a smile on your face - it's for him to retire with a smile on his face.”

Mark Cuban

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 2.1% last week, is higher by 15.3% over the last three months and is up 7.5% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 1.3% last week, is higher by 19.0% over the last three months and is up 22.3% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 2.5% last week, is higher by 13.6% over the last three months and is up 12.6% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.83% (3.83% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.08%(4.19% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.12%(4.23% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.38%(4.46% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.87%(4.91% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.87%(4.90% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.49%

One week ago: 6.47%, one month ago: 6.52%, one year ago: 6.77%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 30% probability (38% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 70% probability (62% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One increase, 42% probability (a week ago: two increases, 38% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 64%

One week ago: 58%, one month ago: 53%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

A 60-day extension of the ceasefire, a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a suspension of the US blockade was announced on Sunday but it seems nothing has been resolved when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, its frozen assets, war reparations or the lifting of sanctions, which would all be the subject of “further discussions” over the coming months.

Despite lots of missing detail and contradictory interpretations from both sides each desperate to claim victory to their domestic audiences, financial markets breathed a sigh of relief on Monday,sending oil prices spinning to three-month lows and stocks exploding higher to start a holiday-shortened week of central bank interest rate decisions around the world, including from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Traders decided that the many nagging doubts about the limitations and viability of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) could wait for another day and the US indexes had their best session since April, even though only about half the names in the S&P 500 actually moved higher with tech stocks doing most of the heavy lifting.

Overnight, the Japanese central bank hiked local interest rates to 1.00%, astonishingly its highest level since the original Toy Story came out in 1995, but Wall Street took a breather on Tuesday giving back some of Monday’s blistering rally. Some skepticism started to creep in about the still-unclear finer details of the US/Iran deal that Trump described as “not final”, but attention quickly turned to the FOMC.

Fed Day opened on Wednesday with a consumer read from Retail Sales data which blew through expectations, indicating that Americans are still unable to stop shopping. Under newly-minted Fed chairman Kevin Warsh, the committee held the Fed Funds Rate unchanged as expected but it seems from the quarterly Dot Plot that many members now expect to be raising it before year-end in response to the growing specter of inflation fueled by tariffs and war.

Warsh said he didn’t care about financial market reaction to his comments, which is just as well since Wall Street read the tealeaves and decided to aggressively sell stocks and drive shorter term interest rates higher. All of Monday’s solid gains were erased.

The US/Iran MOU, which became less and less impressive the more we learned about it (see below), was signed on Wednesday evening. Now the real work begins, getting the important stuff agreed upon in the next sixty days and return to a fully functioning and toll-free Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. There’s plenty of banana skin potential between here and there.

Overnight, the Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged. After two days of US index declines, dip-buyers stormed back in a big way on Thursday, which was a synthetic Friday with US markets closed the next day.

Oil prices continued to retreat and interest rates eased back from Wednesday’s Fed-induced spike. Big Tech/AI led a strong recovery with the NASDAQ setting a new all-time daily volume record and the US indexes finished the trading week nicely in the green.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Trump sought to break Iran’s regime in weeks. Months later and at a cost of billions of taxpayer dollars and thousands of lives, he seems to have now settled for conditionally reopening the Strait of Hormuz (which was fully open on February 27th). Iranian officials quickly and easily figured out that Trump has no desire to extend the conflict that he started but which is seriously damaging him domestically and they negotiated accordingly.

• The US president has been forced into agreeing to little more than a high value pause which has broken almost all of his supposed red lines and signed in Versailles of all places! It’s not even close to the victory that he will falsely but inevitably claim.

• From Wall Street’s perspective, what matters is that oil prices head back towards where they were before the war and that the inflationary pressures brought about by the conflict ease, because if inflation metrics continue to heat up, fears of interest rate hikes will rise and that’s a potential threat to the three-and-a-half year rally in stocks.

• US oil reserves are at their lowest levels since 1983. This means that the stakes are high when it comes to the upcoming negotiations between the US and Iran because if things unravel (and there were already plenty of signs of strain and backtracking just on day one, not to mention Israel going straight back to bombing Lebanon within hours of the MOU being signed), there is very little breathing room before US consumers and businesses really start to feel the pinch.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Whenever Barry Ritholtz tells us what he’s thinking about, we should all listen and learn.

I know I do.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Almost uniquely in the field of investing, doing nothing can be incredibly powerful, not lazy or negligent. Far too much value is placed on being active and the industry perpetuates that for its own gain.”

Morgan Housel, author and partner at Collaborative Fund

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.9% last week, is higher by 15.1% over the last three months and is up 9.8% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 0.9% last week, is higher by 19.0% over the last three months and is up 22.3% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 1.3% last week, is higher by 16.1% over the last three months and is up 15.1% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.83%(3.78% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.19%(4.09% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.23%(4.21% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.46%(4.48% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.91%(4.98% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.90%(4.97% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.47%

One week ago: 6.52%, one month ago: 6.48%, one year ago: 6.81%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on July 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 38% probability (8% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 62% probability (90% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 0% probability (2% a week ago)

With four more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• Two increases, 38% probability (a week ago: one increase, 42% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 58%

One week ago: 61%, one month ago: 51%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Alive and well, the US/Iran war, which we were told would last about four weeks, entered its 100th day over the weekend despite weeks of multiple fake reports of its demise and a Trump declaration back on April 17th that the Strait of Hormuz had re-opened (still waiting for that one). The odds of a swift resolution lengthened further as Iran and Israel exchanged fire on Sunday for the first time since early April and oil prices predictably spiked in response.

Traders in Asia picked up where their Wall Street brethren had left off the previous Friday by furiously offloading tech stocks on Monday, but there was a solid bounce in New York as dip buyers swarmed in to scoop up bargains from the tech wreckage ahead of Wednesday’s final set of inflation data before the next Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting on June 17th.

After hours, OpenAI joined Anthropic and SpaceX in confirming an imminent IPO, while at the same time reports began to emerge of the US government possibly taking a taxpayer-funded stake in the company.

Stocks continued higher on Tuesday morning as oil prices and interest rates eased. The dip-buying frenzy quickly faded however as concerns re-emerged about the lofty valuations of some of the Big Tech/AI names, particularly those that had spiked over the last couple of weeks and sparked another orgy of tech selling, further fueled by news that Iran had downed a US military helicopter and also a sense that institutional investors were unloading some of their tech holdings in order to free up funds to buy SpaceX stock on Friday.

But the dip-buyers stepped back in after lunch to stop the bleeding and the indexes eventually closed a wildly volatile day only moderately lower.

The US launched fresh attacks on Iran in response to the helicopter incident and Trump’s increasingly rambling rhetoric got more threatening, but there is clearly headline fatigue on Wall Street right now. The main business of the day on Wednesday was the May CPI data which showed inflation soaring to 4.2%, up a full half a percent from the previous month. The last time CPI was above 4% was in 2023 when the Federal Reserve was in a cycle of raising the Fed Funds Rate up to 5.325%. It’s currently 3.625%. The idea of any upcoming rate cuts now looks highly fanciful.

The spicy inflation print sent stocks nosediving again with tech names once more leading the charge lower. This time the dip-buyers were conspicuous by their absence. After hours, Oracle disappointed with an underwhelming earnings report and traders dumped the stock.

Thursday was the final ever day of a stock market without SpaceX in it (see ARTICLE OF THE WEEK below). The European Central Bank (ECB) raised local interest rates and the May PPI report showed that wholesale inflation in the US rose by the most since the dark days of 2022 and is now running hot at 6.5%.

The chaotic TACO rollercoaster kicked back in with Trump promising hellfire in the morning but by lunchtime had abruptly called off air strikes and told us for the umpteenth time that a peace deal is basically done and will be signed in days. Oil prices and interest rates fell and the bulls jumped back in the driving seat as traders chose to interpret all this rather positively.

The biggest IPO in history by a factor of three landed on Friday with SpaceX’s initial price of $135 valuing the firm at ~$1.8 trillion which instantly made it one of the top ten largest companies in the world. The price ended the session at a little over $160 and the indexes made more gains to close the week in the green on a cautiously growing hope that maybe, just maybe, this time some kind of war resolution might possibly be for real.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE(S) OF THE WEEK ..

Lots of chatter last week about some (but not all) of the indexes changing their policies to accommodate swift inclusion of SpaceX stock and likely Anthropic and OpenAI as well and thereby impose often unwanted ownership upon retail investors in their investment and retirement accounts.

Two insightful articles from Nick Maggiulli and Callie Cox of Ritholtz Wealth Management cut through the noise on where we stand on this and what it could really mean for your investments.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“At $135 a share, you have to believe everything will work fantastically, things that have never, ever happened before … you’re betting that the business exists already.”

Cory Johnson, Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist on the SpaceX IPO

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It rose 0.7% last week, is higher by 12.1% over the last three months and is up 9.1% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It rose 2.7% last week, is higher by 19.0% over the last three months and is up 19.2% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It rose 4.7% last week, is higher by 11.8% over the last three months and is up 13.7% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.78% (3.78% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.09%(4.17% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.21%(4.29% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.48%(4.55% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.98%(5.03% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.97%(5.01% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.52%

One week ago: 6.48%, one month ago: 6.37%, one year ago: 6.84%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 99% probability (96% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 1% probability (4% a week ago)

With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One increase, 42% probability (a week ago: one increase, 50% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 61%

One week ago: 58%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

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Following another weekend of zero trustworthy information on the war and peace front, financial markets were hoping to be able to focus their attention for a few days on the more tangible reality of earnings, economic data and evolving narratives surrounding interest rates and AI etc. as a banger of a month of May for stocks gave way to the final month of Q2 on Monday.

Energy traders ignored Trump’s advice to just“sit back and relax” and pushed the oil price back up above $90 after Iran announced that it was breaking off ceasefire negotiations with the US until Israel halted its deadly attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

This created something of a speed-bump to the recent furious stock rally and the indexes closed barely changed but still fractionally higher enough for an eighth straight day in the green.

On Tuesday, Marvell (on a deal with Nvidia) and Hewlett Packard (on impressive earnings) became the latest tech stocks to explode higher. The indexes only inched up a little but still enough for new all-time highs for a fifth session running. For the S&P 500 index, it was the 14th record high of the year and the 20th for the NASDAQ.

Overnight into Wednesday, Trump declared negotiations with Iran to be “very boring” and implied that the Strait of Hormuz might not open before Labor Day which, along with more exchanges of fire in the region, kept the upward pressure on oil prices. Trump also decided that this would be a good time to revisit his dormant tariff policy, claiming to somehow suddenly care about international child labor laws as a pretext.

Stocks at last succumbed to the negativity and the indexes’ nine-day winning streak finally came to an end as stocks pulled back from their record levels early on and this time never recovered.

Wall Street’s worries spilled into Asian and European markets overnight with increasing concern about the consequences of Trump’s continued inability to bring to an end the war he started and his apparent loss of control and influence over Israel and Russia, third-party geopolitical actors who have both been intensifying their attacks on civilians.

Index heavyweight Broadcom bucked the trend with a poor earnings report and the stock (which had risen 38% since early April) was brutally punished when New York opened on Thursday.

Since Broadcom is the fifth highest constituent of the S&P 500 index and the fourth biggest in the NASDAQ, this put a lid on a broad market advance and the indexes closed little changed with signs of an investor rotation out of the Big Tech/AI stocks and into more old school names, as evidenced by the stupid dinosaur Dow Jones Industrial Average index reaching a new all-time record high while the NASDAQ tumbled.

The May Jobs Report dropped on Friday morning and showed a massive upside surprise in new payrolls although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. Average wages continue to fail to keep up with inflation. Interest rates soared and stocks dumped in response as financial markets reacted by fully pricing in a 0.25% Fed Funds Rate increase before year-end (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

Things quickly snowballed into a full-blown tech wreck with a rush to the exits on fears of over-valuation in certain names, resulting in the indexes’ first weekly losses since March.

Interestingly, although the S&P 500 index plummeted by 2.7% on the day, less than half the stocks in the index moved lower at all, emphasizing the highly selective nature of the aggressive selling, which was heavily concentrated in large tech and AI stocks.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• There has been a subtle shift in Wall Street’s approach to the war. Fed up with having its chain yanked by endless gaslighting nonsense and confused false messaging about an imaginary peace deal that quite obviously doesn’t exist and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve on pace to hit its lowest level since the early 1980s later this month, traders are now focusing on “Tank Bottom”. This is actual inventory data which suggests that, absent a deal to properly open the Strait of Hormuz soon, severe shortages of energy supplies (especially diesel) will start to noticeably hit US consumers and businesses hard as early as August.

• Crypto has utterly failed to participate in the recent risk-on environment, to put it mildly. Indeed, the price of Bitcoin plunged yet again last week to its lowest level since 2024. Over the last year as of Friday’s close, Bitcoin has fallen by 42% while the S&P 500 index has risen 26%, largely driven by AI. That’s a massive discrepancy for investors to handle and there has been some very significant institutional liquidation of crypto holdings and meaningful net outflows from crypto ETFs, demonstrating a clear shift in sentiment. There’s a certain irony in the fact that crypto is essentially being kept in its box by AI.

• All of the gains in the gold price since the end of last year have now been erased as it went negative for 2026 last week. The many investors who hopped on the bandwagon in late 2025 after falling for the media hype and the pervasive but false myth that precious metals are a good inflation hedge are now most likely nursing losses on their gold position and also missed out on stock market gains as an additional opportunity cost.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Misunderstanding the increasingly blurred line between investing and gambling can severely endanger your financial security. An important article from the wonderful Liz Ann Sonders.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Being force-fed shares of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI [in their investment and retirement accounts] may be a bitter pill to swallow for the many, many Americans who are not at all excited about artificial intelligence. In April, a Gallup poll showed just 18% of people ages 14 to 29 feel hopeful about AI, down from 27% in 2025.”

Bess Levin, New York Magazine

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. It fell 2.7% last week, is higher by 10.0% over the last three months and is up 8.6% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. It fell 3.6% last week, is higher by 11.3% over the last three months and is up 12.5% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. It fell 3.6% last week, is higher by 6.6% over the last three months and is up 10.2% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.78%(3.69% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 4.17%(3.98% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.29%(4.13% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.55%(4.45% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 5.03%(4.98% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 5.01%(4.99% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.48%

One week ago: 6.53%, one month ago: 6.37%, one year ago: 6.85%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 96% probability (99% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 4% probability (1% a week ago)

With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One increase, 50% probability (a week ago: no change in rates, 54% probability)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 58%

One week ago: 55%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Trump and Rubio spent last Saturday teasing that a US/Iran agreement including a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz was “95% done” and was hours away from being finally announced. Iran quickly denied that anything was imminent and indeed there was nothing substantial to report by the time Asian and European markets opened on Monday, which was a holiday in the US and a number of other countries. Nevertheless, oil prices tumbled and overseas stocks moved higher on the prospect of an end to the conflict.

There was still nothing to report by the time US traders returned to their posts on Tuesday morning. Indeed, Trump had actually ordered renewed air strikes overnight and Israel resumed its assault on civilian targets in both Gaza and Lebanon, all of which stalled gains in Asian and European stock markets.

US stocks initially surged with Big Tech and small caps once again leading the charge and interest rates dived as Wall Street got its first chance to react to the possible progress, taking its cues from still-falling energy prices. Enthusiasm waned as the session wore on, however, with more non-stop war blather but precious little evidence of any deal. The indexes still managed to finish in the green, though.

There were yet more claims and counter-claims of an accord as well as a fountain of confusing rhetoric on Wednesday (including a head-scratching threat from Trump to “blow up” US ally Oman), but jaded traders were tuning it out, viewing the US administration as a bit like the teacher in a Charlie Brown cartoon and finally appear to be stubbornly refusing to engage with all the nonsense in the absence of anything tangible or even vaguely accurate to digest. Stocks inched just a little higher but by enough (you guessed it) to set new all-time records for the major indexes.

The US launched more air strikes overnight into Thursday sending energy prices spinning higher again. Premarket data drops included the latest GDP estimate showing a slightly disappointing 1.6% growth rate and PCE annualized inflation holding steady as expected at 3.8%.

Solid earnings from Best Buy and Dollar Tree indicated that, while Americans are extremely pissed off right now according to record low consumer sentiment data, they just can’t stop spending money. Mostly due to simply following the path of least resistance, stocks drifted higher without too much conviction to complete a sixth straight day of gains and move deeper into record high territory.

The party continued into the last trading day of the month on Friday, fueled in part by Dell whose stock price exploded higher by 33% at the open after blowout earnings and outlook. Despite some late profit-taking, the winning streak for the major indexes remained intact to get to seven straight days with three sessions in a row each resulting in new all-time record highs.

The S&P 500 closed up 6.2% for the month of May and scored its ninth straight week of gains while the NASDAQ completed its best-performing two-month spell since the original Tobey Maguire Spiderman movie was in cinemas back in 2002.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for three months now. Over that time the S&P 500 is up ~10% and the NASDAQ by ~20%. Stocks are being driven bya tug-of-war between geopolitics, oil prices, interest rates and a powerful earnings and AI narrative, but all with a highly asymmetric “glass is half full”bias, leading to a current market environment where good news is great news, no news is good news and even bad news is kind of okay.

• The face-ripping run of Micron, with the stock price up over 850% in the last year and doubling in value in just 48 days to above a trillion dollar valuation, is helping to pull the tech sector back to a position of dominance. Of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500, Technology is the only one outperforming the index since the recovery from the lows of early April. This lack of breadth to the most recent rally can be looked at in two ways:

• With concern - as the gains are highly concentrated and a nasty turn in the sector or even in just a few names would badly impact the indexes

• With relish - at the prospect of the rest of the sectors catching up with the index’s spectacular tech leadership.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Homeowners’ insurance premiums and deductibles are soaring all over the country. The insurance companies tell us that their policies provide financial peace of mind, but almost half the time they will refuse to pay out on your claim.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Stocks are priced for perfection in an imperfect world.”

Emily Roland, JH Investment Management co-chief investment strategist

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 0.7% last week, is higher by 10.6% over the last three months and is up 11.2% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.6% last week, is higher by 11.3% over the last three months and is up 18.2% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.5% last week, is higher by 2.8% over the last three months and is up 14.2% so far this year.

Data shown is total return (including dividends)

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY 3.69%(3.68% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY 3.98%(4.13% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY 4.13% (4.27% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY *4.45%(4.56% a week ago)

• 20 YEAR TREASURY 4.98% (5.06% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY 4.99%(5.07% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• 6.53%

One week ago: 6.51%, one month ago: 6.29%, one year ago: 6.89%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. 0% probability (0% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. 99% probability (99% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. 1% probability (1% a week ago)

With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• No change (a week ago: one raise)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• 55%

One week ago: 57%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other content published by Anglia Advisors.

Under no circumstances is any such content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Another weekend, another complete lack of progress or even any useful information related to the Iran war as the paralysis continued with both sides wasting everybody’s time and effort by offering up proposals that are clearly non-starters since they know full well the other side won’t accept them.

Wall Street loves itself a corny acronym and while bulls are tending to still hold on to the long-standing principle of TACO, many of the bears are adopting NACHO (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens).

All we really got was Trump barking that “the clock is ticking”. No st, thought Wall Street traders who had been promised an end to all this uncertainty weeks ago. With inflation fire alarms starting to go off all over the world, markets made a cautious start to the week on Monday**.

After Japanese interest rates were driven to the highest levels in history overnight, stock prices dipped in New York, led lower by recently-buoyant Big Tech names, with energy prices and US interest rates continuing to head north on slowly evaporating confidence in an imminent workable US/Iran pact.

Oil prices eased slightly late on as Trump implausibly announced that he had been talked out of resuming military strikes on Iran by Gulf allies pending some kind of unspecified deal, but Wall Street shrugged this off on Tuesday as just another tiresome and transparent negotiating ploy.

The first of the week’s impactful earnings reports came out with Home Depot disappointing. The indexes retreated further, again tech-fueled, with stock traders nervously eyeing the one-way traffic in bond markets that was sending longer term interest rates to highs not seen since Soulja Boy topped the Billboard charts.

Wall Street got another read on the American consumer with Target, TJ Maxx and Lowe’s earnings on Wednesday morning all beating estimates. There was nothing in the released minutes from the latest Fed meeting that indicated an imminent Fed Funds Rate cut, but they don’t seem to be overtly plotting a hike either, although the most commonly-expected next Fed move in 2026 has now flipped over from doing nothing to actually raising rates (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

Stocks chose to take encouragement from the continued positive earnings environment and the indexes moved nicely higher, erasing the losses of the previous two days as oil prices drifted lower. Bonds had a much better session as interest rates pulled back from their recent highs. Nvidia’s earnings after the bell were perfectly good but lacked a wow factor and the stock did little in the after-market.

On Thursday, Walmart’s pre-market earnings, considered a good barometer of the state of lower-and-middle income consumers and the K-shaped economy, showed significant profit margin compression and the stock sank.

Combined with a muted reaction to Nvidia’s numbers and the continued endless foot-dragging and more unruly rhetoric from both sides of the Iran war spiking energy prices again, this sent the indexes slipping back into the red early on, but a late bout of dip-buying dragged them back up to close lightly in the green.

Stocks completed their eighth consecutive week of gains on Friday, the longest such streak for three years, as longer term interest rates and energy prices continued to recede on the hopes of some kind of a US/Iran settlement ticked a little higher based on still-hazy but slightly more upbeat pronouncements from both sides.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• For AI-driven stock market growth to be sustainable the biggest tech companies will need to see a positive return on their colossal data center spending. If this fails to materialize because people and companies don’t use AI as much as expected or pay for its use, then the so-called hyper-scalers (Meta, Amazon, Oracle, Microsoft, Google etc.) will have to cut spending on them and that could badly damage the rest of the tech sector and thereby the tech-heavy US indexes. We won’t find out that out in the near term, but stock markets are currently acting like the answer can only be “yes, the spending will continue come what may,” and I’m not yet 100% convinced that’s definitely true beyond the next few quarters.

• Trump’s job approval rating is cratering, consumer sentiment is at a horrendous multi-decade record low (even Republican voters are fuming) and inflation expectations are through the roof, just a few months before the midterms as Americans go into the Memorial Day long weekend with average gas prices above $4.50 a gallon, having spent an extra $20 billion at the pump in the last twelve weeks as a direct result of the Iran war. It is all this as much as anything else that might bring the conflict to some kind of a resolution relatively soon.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“Evidence of a ferocious backlash against AI, especially among young people, is everywhere”. College grads just aren’t having it.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“It’s not cost cutting; it’s replacing in some cases lower-value human capital with the financial capital and the investment capital we’re putting in.”

Bill Winters, CEO of Standard Chartered Bank, was widely slammed for this clumsy quote last week, describing the bank’s employees as “lower-value human capital”.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.0% last week, is higher by 4.2% over the last three months and is up 5.7% so far this year.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 2.9% last week, is higher by 7.4% over the last three months and is up 13.2% so far this year.

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.4% last week, is higher by 4.1% over the last three months and is up 10.1% so far this year.

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.68% (3.69% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.13% (4.09% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.27% (4.26% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.56% (4.59% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 5.06% (5.14% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 5.07% (5.12% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.51%

One week ago: 6.36%, one month ago: 6.24%, one year ago: 6.86%

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 99% probability (99% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 1% probability (1% a week ago)

With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• One raise (Changed from “No changes” a week ago)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 57%

One week ago: 51%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

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Trump decided over the weekend that he“didn’t like” Iran’s response to the US proposal to end the conflict but yet again there was little of substance regarding the war for Wall Street to focus on, with markets continuing to view the situation as slowly trending towards some kind of ceasefire.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for ten weeks now with no prospect of reopening, a once-unthinkable shock to the world economy and yet the oil price came into the week still well below the high of $140 seen in 2022 (Russia/Ukraine) and global stocks at all-time highs.

US stocks hovered around those highs at the open on Monday with Trump describing the current pause in Middle East hostilities as being “on life support” and continued rising energy prices keeping a lid on the recent melt-up, but the indexes still managed to inch forward a touch. Hence, more new all-time record levels.

The latest CPI report on Tuesday morning was the first to fully include higher fuel costs brought about by the war and inevitably showed another big leap in retail inflation to 3.8% annualized, closing in on double the Fed’s 2% target (which it hasn’t met for five years now). Gas prices are up by 28% from a year ago and airfares by 21%. Notably, retail prices are now rising at a faster rate than wages.

Interest rates shifted upwards on the vanishing prospect of any rate cuts at all in 2026 or early 2027. Indeed, an increase in the Fed Funds Rate this year is now priced as being more likely than a rate cut. Wall Street winced at the data and the indexes pulled back and interest rates jumped.

Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday morning for a meeting with Chinese premier Xi after bizarrely telling journalists; “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situations”.

Kevin Warsh was waived through Congress as the next Fed chairman and was immediately confronted with a big problem. CPI’s baby brother, PPI, was released pre-market and came in red hot, indicating a jaw-dropping jump from 4.3% to 6.0% in the annualized wholesale rate of inflation.

The bond market was shocked and drove up medium and longer term interest rates. The 30-year Treasury rate blasted through 5.00% to its highest level since 2007, before the Great Financial Crisis. Stocks, however, took things in stride and tech stock traders in particular stepped in to buy Tuesday’s dip, pushing the indexes into the green and back to yet more record highs.

By the time markets opened on Thursday, all that had come out of China was meaningless drivel about partnership and obscure references to Confucius and Abraham Lincoln. Of far more interest was the latest Retail Sales data which showed continued steady, if not profligate, spending by the US consumer.

Despite the continued lack of anything interesting emanating from Beijing, stocks continued to move relentlessly higher, helped by a spectacular earnings report from Cisco. The major indexes reached their third set of all-time record highs of the week with the S&P 500 closing above 7500 for the first time ever and even the silly old dinosaur index that is inexplicably still followed by some people, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, broke through 50,000.

The complete nothing-burger that was the Trump/Xi summit came to an end on Friday with muddled messaging from the US delegation and no apparent progress on Iran or tariffs. After a horror-show of a trading session in Europe with stocks and bonds plunging as local interest rates reached multi-decade highs and continued rising energy prices, US equity indexes cooled off as stock traders finally joined bond traders in fretting about inflation risk and took a lot of money off the table.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• I think it’s important to identify and recognize what could go wrong here for stock markets. To be clear, these are possible scenarios, not predictions ..

• Fed hikes interest rates: For the first time in years, the market-driven probability of a Fed Fund Rate increase by year-end is now higher than that of a cut as inflation continues to be a major and growing problem, fueled by tariffs and the oil price shock. A forced rate-hiking campaign could cause a major economic slowdown. The last time the Fed had to raise rates to control inflation in 2022, stocks dumped by more than 20%.

• Stagflation materializes: It is the expected duration rather than the intensity of high inflation that matters. The longer energy prices stay high, the more entrenched elevated inflation will become, fueling possible stagflation and unlike in COVID-times, there will be no stimulus checks this time to help offset it.

• The AI boom goes bust: Earnings reports have indicated colossal AI spending from a narrow group of tech companies that is potentially driving wider economic and corporate growth. If that expenditure were to be forcibly slowed due to poor investment returns, then the platform upon which a three-and-a-half year rally has been built could begin to crumble and many other sectors might be adversely impacted.

• None of these three risks are imminent and the market is fundamentally strong. But stocks can go down, sometimes sustainably and I don’t want clients to be blindsided if it happens. Absent some kind of exogenous shock, any major decline is likely to be the result of one or more of these factors.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“Your ability to take risk throughout your financial life will be influenced by three primary factors—your age, your liabilities and your level of wealth. As each increases, you should naturally want to take less risk.”

Maybe counterintuitive? Yes. Very sensible? Also yes. Important advice from Ritholtz’s Nick Maggiulli.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Risk management is less about how you respond to risk and more about recognizing how many things can go wrong before they actually do.”

Morgan Housel, partner at The Collaborative Fund.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 0.2% last week, is up 8.4% so far this year and ended the week 1.4% below its all-time record closing high (05/14/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 2.3% last week, is up 12.8% so far this year and ended the week 3.5% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026).

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 2.7% last week, is up 10.2% so far this year and ended the week 3.1% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬌ 3.69% (3.69% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.09% (3.90% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.26% (4.02% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.59% (4.38% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 5.14% (4.93% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 5.12% (4.95% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.36%

One week ago: 6.37%, one month ago: 6.32%, one year ago: 6.81%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 99% probability (93% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 1% probability (7% a week ago)

With five more rate-setting meetings this year, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining Fed Funds interest rate changes in 2026?

• ⬌ No changes (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 51%

One week ago: 53%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

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It was yet another weekend of nothing of substance war-wise for markets to chew on, apart from both sides ramping up the rhetoric and Trump posting some kind of characteristically detail-free vague promise called “Project Freedom” to somehow help guide tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets were unimpressed. Oil prices and interest rates spiked higher on Monday and stocks fell back from their record highs following exchanges of fire for the first time in weeks as we all got an unwelcome reminder that this war was not over.

Cracks in the fragile ceasefire continued to appear on Tuesday but neither side seems to yet to have reached the pain level required to be willing to announce its demise. For the US, that pain level probably stands at around $160 oil, a 4.75% 10 year Treasury rate and even deeper midterm woes for Republicans.

A buoyant risk-on stock market quickly recovered all of Monday’s losses, bolstered by Intel’s announcement of a deal with Apple. The indexes reached another new set of all-time highs. After the close, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) released sensational earnings, Trump shut down Project Freedom after less than two days and the average price per gallon at US pumps reached $4.56, its highest level since the summer of 2022.

Reports on Wednesday morning that the US and Iran were closing in on a one-page, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding and Secretary of State Rubio straight up telling Congress that the war was over sent oil prices and interest rates tumbling.

Stocks went vertical with Wall Street traders keen to consign the conflict to the history books and finally get back to their happy place where they could focus on corporate earnings, interest rate projections and economic data rather than constantly having to try and interpret grammatically-challenged social media posts.

The soaring rally spilled into Asia on Thursday with Japanese stocks in particular ripping higher, but wavered when markets opened in New York. Perhaps with one eye on the following day’s crucial employment numbers and in response to oil prices and interest rates slowing their declines from the previous day, Wall Street took its foot off the gas and the indexes closed in the red.

After the close, the US Court of International Trade ruled Trump’s imposition of 10% across-the-board Section 122 tariffs to be illegal, just weeks after the Supreme Court tossed out his IEEPA tariffs.

Further exchange of firebetween the US and Iran overnight was dismissed by Trump as a “love tap” . But it did cast some doubt on the prospects of a deal and sent oil prices briefly higher again on Friday ahead of the pre-market Jobs Report which showed a significantly greater-than-expected number of new payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%.

This Goldilocks data confirmed a stable labor market and pushed back against fears of stagflation. Interest rates shifted lower and the stock indexes, boosted by another big day for Intel and several other semiconductor names, jumped again to wipe out Thursday’s losses and complete a sixth straight week of gains. The S&P 500 index notched its 15th new record high of the year (after almost 40 of them in 2025) and the NASDAQ scored its 11th.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Market valuations are clearly stretched in the short term and there are still risks to monitor. But there are genuinely legitimate reasons for the new highs. So, while this market remains vulnerable to temporary downside air pockets on any US/ Iran disappointment, there are fundamentally solid financial positives to be found in the best earnings in over twenty years and a resilient US consumer that are supporting stock prices. While these factors remain in place, the risk of a major fall in the indexes is probably limited. But if they deteriorate, the drop from these levels has the capability to be dramatic.

• Prediction betting markets at Polymarket, PredictIt and Kalshi are being pitchedon social media as a lucrative side hustle for young Americans squeezed by rent and student debt. However, the reality is that almost all of them are losing money, with over 100,000 accounts on Polymarket down by at least $1,000. Trade records show that the bulk of profitswere raked in by a tiny group of what appear to be automated bots while everyone else on the platform, in aggregate, lost $131 million.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Various AI platforms were asked to create and manage a stock portfolio. It didn’t go well.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month.”

Steve Cahillane, CEO of Kraft Heinz, referring to low-income US consumers facing tariffs, rising gas prices and stubborn inflation

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 2.4% last week, is up 8.2% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (05/08/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 1.8% last week, is up 15.4% so far this year and ended the week 1.2% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026).

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 3.0% last week, is up 13.2% so far this year and ended the week 0.4% below its all-time record closing high (05/06/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.69% (3.68% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.90% (3.88% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 4.02% (4.02% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.38% (4.39% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.93% (4.96% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.95% (4.97% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.37%

One week ago: 6.30%, one month ago: 6.39%, one year ago: 6.76%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 93% probability (93% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 7% probability (7% a week ago)

With five more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 53%

One week ago: 57%, one month ago: 52%, one year ago: 42%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

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A potentially blockbuster week laced with pivotal earnings reports from almost $30 trillion-worth of S&P 500 names including five of the Magnificent Seven, key economic data and central bank interest rate decisions at home and abroad began following a weekend of no discernible progress on the Iran War.

With limited credible conflict newsflow, Wall Street eased gently into the first half of the week on Monday, conserving its energy perhaps for a possibly more volatile second half. After solid sessions in Asia and Europe, US stocks essentially flatlined for the session but squeaked out just enough to notch more new all-time record highs for the S&P 500 and NASDAQindexes.

The Bank of Japan left local interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. Energy prices continued to climb with Strait of Hormuz traffic remaining at a standstill and the United Arab Emirates’ shock withdrawal from Saudi-dominated OPEC, raising the average price of a gallon of gas at US pumps to $4.30 and over $6.00 in California. Trump posting a picture of himself with a machine gun and the caption: “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” didn’t help.

US stocks faltered, pulling back from their record levels with the NASDAQ reversing hardest on a Wall Street Journal report of trouble at OpenAI which sent tremors through some of the firm’s many tech partners and acted as a sharp reminder to investors to maintain portfolios that are balanced across sectors.

Big Wednesday arrived with a Fed Funds Rate-setting announcement on tap followed by Jerome Powell’s final press conference as chairman and a tsunami of monster earnings after the closing bell.

The Fed obviously did nothing with interest rates but a split is clearly emerging on the committee between those looking to maintain a bias towards only focusing on cutting rates in the near future and other members looking for more symmetrical and flexible language that at least leaves the door open for possible interest rate hikes in response to the increasing inflation pressure brought about by tariffs and war.

In a lively press conference, Powell confirmed that he would stay on as a Fed governor once his chairmanship expires later this month, infuriating Trump. The indexes ended the session a little lower.

Broadly speaking, the earnings reports were graded by Wall Street as follows:

• Alphabet/Google: Excellent job all round. A gold star for the teacher’s pet.

• Microsoft: Could do better on AI service offerings. We aren’t angry, just a bit disappointed.

• Meta: Overspending yet again on unproven, kinda strange stuff. You have to rein it in and we likely won’t be happy until you do.

• Amazon: Revenues growing nicely, good work. But we do need to keep one eye on that spending of yours.

Long term US interest rates joined oil prices in touching wartime highs (5.00% on the 20-year and $126 respectively) on the last day of the month on Thursday before pulling back a little, continuing their non-confirmation of recent stock market exuberance (see below).

Central banks in Europe and the UK held local interest rates unchanged. Q1 US GDP estimates came in stronger than expected, sending the indexes shooting back to new record highs again despite the mixed tech earnings and the PCE index showing inflation continuing to run hot, soaring from 2.8% to 3.5% annualized, the biggest month-on-month increase for years.

The S&P 500 scored a 10% jump for the month of April, its best monthly performance since 2020. The Small Cap index and the NASDAQ did even better; up 12% and 16% respectively.

Apple reported after the close, beating expectations on most metrics but didn’t blow the doors off and the stock price shifted moderately higher on Friday as stocks began May as they had ended April by marching deeper into record territory with the S&P 500 index now on a five-week winning streak.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• I talked in last week’s report about the divergence between stock market performance and consumer sentiment. Another notable divergence is the one between stock market performance and that of other financial markets. Put simply, compared to the day the ceasefire was declared on April 7th, energy prices are now much higher, as is the 10-year Treasury yield. The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, has surged 9% over the same time frame.

• To be clear, this lack of confirmation by oil and interest rate markets doesn’t mean that the rally in stocks is illegitimate. The strong earnings and solid economic data upon which it is based are real. Stock markets are assuming that the war has passed peak intensity and we are at least on a road to some kind of resolution. But neither oil nor interest rates are signaling that and this non-confirmation can be spun one of two ways.

• Positively, it could mean that good earnings and economic data are so strong that they are swamping geopolitical concerns, providing an effective offset to event risk. Negatively, it could mean that the stock rally has simply been fueled by “fast money chasing” that has sent mega-cap tech stocks spinning higher on little more than general hope of a resolution and that there is a non-trivial risk that this could all reverse quickly and nastily.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“Just three months stand between the average American household and bankruptcy.” The death of the American Dream is now official.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“The stock market isn’t always right, but it’s right far more often than any of us trying to predict what will happen next.”

Ben Carlson, Ritholtz Wealth Management

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.0% last week, is up 5.7% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (05/01/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 1.0% last week, is up 13.5% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (05/01/2026).

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.6% last week, is up 10.0% so far this year and ended the week 1.8% below its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.68% (3.69% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.88% (3.78% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.02% (3.92% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.39% (4.31% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.96% (4.88% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.97% (4.91% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.30%

One week ago: 6.23%, one month ago: 6.43%, one year ago: 6.76%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on June 17th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. ⬇︎ 0% probability (1% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 93% probability (94% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬆︎ 7% probability (5% a week ago)

With five more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of the CME FedWatch Tool and is derived from futures market pricing as of Friday’s market close based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 57%

One week ago: 55%, one month ago: 45%, one year ago: 37%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

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The cozy feeling of optimism that had carried stock markets to new all-time highs the previous week began to unravel over the weekend. Within hours of Trump boasting that "Iran has agreed to never again close the Strait of Hormuz”, Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the US refusal to lift its blockade.

The oil price jumped but stocks remained steady in Asia and Europe on Monday. The previously-buoyant mood on Wall Street soured as Trump assured us all that he was not going to extend the ceasefire. Iran cast doubt on its attendance at proposed negotiations in Pakistan. Markets flinched a little and the rally stalled with the indexes all slipping a touch lower.

Retail sales data was better than expected on Tuesday morning and stocks rose cautiously when markets opened on ongoing low trading volume before falling back as lingering hopes of imminent US/Iran negotiations evaporated and drove oil prices back into triple figures. The indexes all closed in the red again for their first back-to-back down-days of the month.

Just moments after the closing bell, Trump completely reversed course yet again, posting that he was indefinitely extending his ceasefire deadline “until discussions are concluded” while maintaining the naval blockade.

Stocks recovered solidly on Wednesday with tech taking the lead but a confused sense of limbo persisted in a vacuum of meaningful war news beyond Trump barking threats on social media, even as more mostly positive earnings reports continued to come out. The indexes defiantly held onto their gains throughout the session and both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes reclaimed new all-time record highs.

Earnings from Tesla, IBM and Amex underwhelmed and brutal levels of mass layoffs and voluntary buyouts were announced by both Microsoft and Meta on Thursday. Stocks stagnated, albeit still hovering around record highs and then sank moderately with zero signs of any resolution of the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides seem equally desperate to declare victory, but each are terrified of appearing to their domestic audiences to be making any kind of compromise. Energy prices rose for a fifth straight day.

A sensational earnings report from Intel, which screamed up by almost 30% at the open to break its record high from 2000 before cooling off a touch, pushed tech stocks sharply higher again on Friday morning. The indexes were then boosted further by the US announcement (notably unconfirmed by Iran) of a possible sequel to the failed high level face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan at the weekend to complete a fourth straight week of gains following four weeks of losses and, of course, at new all-time record highs.

I am losing count of the number of times I have been asked recently a version of the question; “How can we possibly be at new all-time highs, given what is going on?”

I see a number of reasons:

• Financial markets are always forward-looking and anticipatory. A common investor mistake is to conflate events happening right now directly with the real-time daily direction of stock and bond prices. We are probably past peak uncertainty in the war. While the timeline is unclear to say the least, some kind of eventual diplomatic solution is still the most likely outcome.

• The biggest market fear has always been that the conflict would send the price of oil spinning above $150 and towards $200 a barrel (at which point we will probably get massive demand destruction that will inevitably cap the price), not about whether its $75, $85 or $95. That $200 scenario remains unlikely, and as long as it stays that way, traders will give the diplomatic process the benefit of the doubt.

• The Q1 earnings season is proving to be extremely robust. 80% of companies reporting so far have beaten estimates, some by a lot. At the end of the day, earnings are the prime driver of stock prices.

• A strong dip-buying mindset remains alive and well and becomes self-fulfilling as investor reluctance to stay bearish for too long becomes reinforced time and time again by swift bounce-backs in price following any substantial declines.

• AI is back, baby! Tech and AI-related names, which are for the most part less impacted by the conflict, are soaring again. Concerns over AI capital expenditure that were rampant earlier in the year have eased and many of these names comprise massive chunks of the weightings of the major indexes.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• This coming week is a highly consequential one. Beyond continued war developments, there’s a Big Wednesday that includes earnings from Alphabet/Google, Microsoft and Meta and a Fed Funds Rate decision (to likely do nothing - see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). Amazon and Apple also report during the week.

• Fed chairman nominee Kevin Warsh faced a grilling at his Senate confirmation hearing last week, including the accusation that he was simply Trump’s“glove puppet”. Despite his pledge to maintain central bank independence, the troubling signs were there as he declined to say who won the 2020 election and was unable to come up with a single Trump economic policy that he disagreed with. He also refused to come to the defense of Fed colleagues Lisa Cook and chairman Jerome Powell who were at the time both facing vindictive and obviously spurious legal proceedings at the behest of the president (the case against Powell was actually dropped later in the week), choosing instead to fire barbs at the current Fed chairman over recent policy that sounded remarkably like a Trump social media post. Warsh is all but certain to be confirmed by the Senate.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“Stocks don’t always obey the fundamentals of the backdrop. Because they are owned by people, traded by algorithms created by people and perceptions change as quickly as human emotions.”

Ritholtz’s Josh Brown chimes in on the “AI is a bubble” theory.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“They don’t care about gas prices.”

American Express CEO Stephen Squeri, on the company’s customers.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

• SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 0.5% last week, is up 4.8% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/24/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.3% last week, is up 12.4% so far this year and ended the week 1.1% below its all-time record closing high (04/20/2026).

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 1.5% last week, is up 9.4% so far this year and ended the week 2.4% below its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.69% (3.70% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.78% (3.71% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.92% (3.84% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.31% (4.26% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.89% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 4.91% (4.91% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.23%

One week ago: 6.30%, one month ago: 6.30%, one year ago: 6.81%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. ⬌ 1% probability (1% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 99% probability (99% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data is derived from futures market pricing based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%. Courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of Friday’s market close.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 55%

One week ago: 60%, one month ago: 42%, one year ago: 31%

Data courtesy of barchart.com as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

To the surprise of almost no-one, the fleeting US/Iran talks in Pakistan over the weekend were a dismal failure. Sometime in between attending UFC fights, unsuccessfully interfering in Hungary’s election, posting an AI image of himself as a messiah and picking fights with the pope, Trump still found time to announce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in a move designed to cripple Iran financially.

The main effect of such a move, of course, is to further deepen the world’s chronic energy supply shock (contemptuously dismissed last week by Treasury Secretary Bessent, net worth around $600 million, as "a small bit of economic pain") that is now resulting in soaring gas prices at the pump for Americans as well as thousands of flight cancelations, fuel rationing, commuting bans and power cuts in other parts of the world.

Entirely predictably, the oil price exploded back into triple digits and both stocks and bonds fell in Asia and Europe on Monday. US stocks also initially pulled back but in a relatively orderly fashion and on low trading volume. Trump then claimed that Iran had reached back out that morning to “make a deal” .

Oil prices swiftly retreatedbelow $100 and the indexes pushed back into the green, with the S&P 500 index wiping out its losses for 2026 and even closing above where it finished on February 27th, the day before the bombing began, when a barrel of oil cost a mere $67.

Q1 earnings season got properly under way on Tuesday morning with decent reports from some of the big banks. We also got another inflation indicator with PPI data proving to be sticky but stable. Stocks continued to march steadily higher throughout the session as energy prices continued to tumble to their lowest levels in three weeks, more on a lack of bad news rather than the presence of anything concrete or credible.

An extension of the ceasefire was strongly rumored on Wednesday morning and Trump called the conflict “very close to over”, although Iran pushed back heavily on that claim. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reported very solid earnings.

The indexes drifted gently higher all day and interest rates eased, but it was enough to propel both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ to new all-time record highs with the former closing above 7000 for the first time ever. This is absolutely astounding six weeks into a deadly oil-impacting war, despite Trump’s bizarre characterization of it last week as just “a minor skirmish”.

Wall Street’s happy clappy mood was initially bolstered on Thursday by more pre-market expectation-busting earnings reports from the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor, Bank of New York and Pepsi.

Gains were later pared, however, on reliable independent reports of a likely much longer timeline for any US/Iran agreement than the Trump administration is claiming which sent oil prices higher, but the indexes still managed to push deeper into record territory.

Netflix reported earnings after the close, providing the season’s first major disappointment relative to expectations but Wall Street’s voracious risk appetite continued on Friday, especially after oil prices plunged following Iran’s initial announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would now be fully open to all traffic (subsequently qualified to exclude ships and cargoes linked to “hostile” countries) for as long as a ceasefire was in place.

The indexes extended their upward charge. The S&P 500 completed its third consecutive week of 3%+ gains on a three day record-breaking streak and the NASDAQ also closed at record highs again after scoring its thirteenth straight session in the green, something it hasn’t done since 2013.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Wall Street is done with the Iran war and ready to move on (see .. AND I QUOTE .. below). We’ve seen this movie many times before where geopolitical crises turn out in retrospect to have been great buying opportunities. The playbook of not freaking out and fading any geopolitical disruption which has essentially worked since the Second World War seems to have played out yet again. US and global indexes fully round-tripped their conflict-related losses and broke to new all-time highs again just a month and a half after hostilities began, marking the third speedy April V-shaped recovery in six years after 2020 and 2025.

• Trump went back to taking potshots at Fed chairman Jerome Powell last week, vowing to fire him if he does not give up his governorship position next month, something he is not required to do until 2028. However, as recently affirmed by the Supreme Court, the president has zero legal authority to do this and so Wall Street just rolled its eyes and shrugged it off as a non-story.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Coast FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) has always been the most sensible diluted version of the somewhat dubious FIRE strategy of aggressive saving, investing and massive cost-cutting to build liquid assets to roughly 25-30X annual expenses and then switching to full spending mode well before traditional retirement age. AI could be causing a rethink.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

"So as far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice”.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of stockanalysis.com

S&P 500 sector data courtesy of State Street Investment Management

• SPYM, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 4.5% in the last five days, is up 4.2% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 5.5% in the last five days, is up 12.0% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026).

• VXUS, an International Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 3.0% in the last five days, is up 11.0% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high (04/17/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.70% (3.69% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.71% (3.81% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.84% (3.94% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.26% (4.31% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.85% (4.89% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.91% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of Friday’s market close.

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.30%

One week ago: 6.37%, one month ago: 6.15%, one year ago: 6.83%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. ⬇︎ 1% probability (2% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 99% probability (98% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 0% probability (0% a week ago)

With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of Friday’s market close.

All data based on the current Fed Funds interest rate of 3.625%

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 60%

One week ago: 53%, one month ago: 50%, one year ago: 30%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close.

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close.

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors has updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

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A clearly exasperated Trump put out a series of unhinged expletive-ridden social media posts over the weekend threatening the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Iran starting on Tuesday evening which pushed oil prices deeper into triple digits, but there was very little in terms of credible clarity for traders to chew on at the weekend.

A week including some key economic data and the start of Q1 2026 earnings season kicked off quietly on a low-volume Monday session with a temporary pause in the headline roulette and stocks tentatively built on the previous week’s gains in a state of confused optimism ahead of potentially violent two-way volatility from either a brutal US/Israel onslaught or another TACO Tuesday.

In fact, Israel seemingly couldn’t wait to start hitting civilian targets in Iran and jumped the gun on Tuesday morning which pushed up energy prices. Trump, who appears to be treating this whole situation like some tawdry New York real estate transaction characterized by shameless brinkmanship and nasty threats, posted that “a whole civilization will die tonight”.

A sense of unease settled on Wall Street. Stock prices sank and interest rates drifted higher as the deadline grew closer. However, there was a late-session recovery on the back of rumors of some kind of diplomatic breakthrough brokered by Pakistan and the indexes closed unchanged on the day.

After the close, Trump capitulated, announcing a two-week suspension of all strikes on Iran, improbably claiming that the US had “already met and exceeded all military objectives”. In return, Iran agreed to conditionally re-open the Strait of Hormuz for the two-week period (but still charging crypto tolls to any traffic) and bilateral talks were set for the weekend in Pakistan.

As both sides desperately tried to spin the narrative as a win including undisguised victory laps with “mission accomplished” rhetoric from both Trump and Hegseth, traders scrambled frantically to re-price risk assets in the wake of the announcement. Oil prices crashed by the most since early COVID, interest rates tumbled and stock markets around the world absolutely skyrocketed in Asia and Europe for their biggest one-day gains in years.

When Wall Street opened on Wednesday, its comeback was a little less spectacular, but it was still a very strong day for the stock indexes. While it was unclear how long it would last, traders treated themselves to at least a day of euphoric relief. Some Q1 earnings began to trickle in and were mostly positive ahead of the banks kicking off the season in earnest this week.

After Wednesday’s massive dopamine hit, the jubilation subsided across global markets on Thursday with accusations already flying that terms were being violated and the Strait of Hormuz still basically closed.

Oil prices and interest rates bounced back higher overnight and international stocks fell. The latest PCE numbers and the most recent Q1 GDP estimate were published ahead of the US opening bell, showing sticky inflation, consumer spending stalling and a declining rate of economic growth. However, reports that Israel and Lebanon were planning direct ceasefire talks helped to reverse early losses on Wall Street and the indexes closed with light gains.

The late rebound followed through into Asian and European markets on Friday. Wall Street got to see the latest CPI data which saw inflation shoot up to an annualized rate of 3.3%. The month-to-month jump was the biggest since 2022, but over three-quarters of it was down to war-related energy price increases.

Wall Street chose to look through the hopefully-transitory oil price effect and stocks made further incremental gains when markets opened as traders marginally added to bets that the Fed may still cut the Fed Funds Rate at least once this year. This was despite the fact that Americans are feeling miserable right now with the monthly measure of Consumer Sentiment collapsing to the lowest level in history.

Trader reluctance to go into yet another highly unpredictable high stakes weekend with meaningful long positions caused prices to ease back to unchanged by the close and the indexes’ best week for months came to a relatively quiet end.

Markets are quite heavily banking on the war being in the rear view mirror relatively soon with a noticeable improvement in Strait of Hormuz traffic, even if not back to pre-conflict levels for a while. Whether tolls are going to be charged and exactly to whom they will be paid doesn’t matter much to traders who feel they can probably live with $80-$90 oil for a while.

Confirmation of this scenario will likely see a continuation of last week’s solid rally but in the case that everything goes to s**t (possibly as early as this weekend), this rather asymmetric view of things means that renewed significant falls in stock prices are far from off the table if oil prices get back into the $110-$150 range or higher.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Your brain is buggy software, badly infected with recency bias when it comes investing. Learn to zoom out.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“We won’t applaud those who set the world on fire just because they turn up with a bucket.”

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez refuses to fully endorse the ceasefire.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Technology (two biggest holdings: Welltower, Prologis) ⬆︎ 4.9% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the second week in a row ⬇︎ 3.9% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 3.6% last week, is down 0.4% so far this year and ended the week 2.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 4.0% last week, is up 6.2% so far this year and ended the week 3.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 4.9% last week, is up 5.7% so far this year and ended the week 3.6% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.69% (3.70% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.81% (3.79% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 3.94% (3.94% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 4.31% (4.31% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.89% (4.88% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.91% (4.88% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.37%

One week ago: 6.46%, one month ago: 6.07%, one year ago: 6.62%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

• 0.25% higher than now .. ⬆︎ 2% probability (0% a week ago)

• Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 98% probability (99% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 0% probability (1% a week ago)

With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 53%

One week ago: 48%, one month ago: 53%, one year ago: 39%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Reports predicting an imminent US ground invasion of Iran intensified over the weekend, triggering an apocalyptic response from the Iranians. The Houthis in Yemen joined the ever-expanding conflict, likely at the behest of Iran, complicating the increasingly chaotic picture further.

Trump ramped up his attempts to gaslight markets with a flurry of detail-free promises of an imminent deal one minute then wild threats of hellfire the next but, given a complete lack of anything credible to digest, Wall Street just isn’t listening any more.

For most of Monday US stocks did a whole lot of nothing with traders unsure as to what posture to take in a vacuum and no trustworthy information coming from any of the conflict participants. But the indexes swooned late in the session to finish in the red again with the S&P 500 creeping closer and closer to official correction territory.

A very rough month and quarter (see my Q1 Market Review here) came to an end at long last on Tuesday with the oil price at a four-year high following its biggest monthly jump in history and US gas prices at the pump averaging above $4/gallon for the first time since mid-2022 and rising, with some places in California seeing closer to $7.

However, the indexes roared higher for their best one-day session in close to a year which was put down to dip buyers and bargain hunters finally showing up on the back of Iran signaling possible co-operation in ceasefire talks and end-of-quarter window dressing which can often create some distortions on the final day.

Trump’s incoherent, jumbled flip-flopping continued after the close. He pledged to bomb Iran “back into the Stone Ages”, end the war in two weeks’ time and touted peace negotiations, all in literally the same sentence. He then promised to grace us all with even more of this kind of insight in a primetime address to the nation the following day.

Q2 kicked off on Wednesday and stocks followed through strongly on Tuesday’s monster rally following spectacular gains in Asia and Europe with a perception that it may be dawning on Trump that the current status of the war is untenable with his approval ratings in the toilet and the midterms coming up in a few months.

The president’s “very important” twenty-minute address was anything but. It was no more than a rambling, self-serving verbal summary of his recent social media posts and gave traders nothing new to work with.

Hard to believe, but Thursday was the one year anniversary of so-called “Liberation Day” and the subsequent market disruption caused by the tariff strategy, but attention is very much focused elsewhere at the moment. Asian and European markets fell back after the letdown of Trump’s disappointing update and Iran’s “bring it on, motherf*” -style response offered no peace**.

Wall Street initially followed the lead of overseas markets with the indexes giving back some of Wednesday’s gains as energy prices rocketed higher again on the prospect of at least two or three more weeks of escalating bombardment in the region and Trump’s bizarre reference to some kind of magical “natural” self-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. A late mini-surge dragged stock prices back to basically flat for the session and pushed interest rates lower ahead of the long weekend.

AJobs Report released on a Friday when the stock market was closed meant that we aren’t going to get to see any equity market reaction until Monday and that reaction could easily be swamped by geopolitical developments over the weekend.

It was a very solid report with new job creation above even the highest estimates and a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, although downward revisions to prior data took off some of the shine.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Going into a trading blackout with a high level of unknowable risk is an unsettling thought for Wall Street traders. This is leading to a relatively predictable pattern of end-of-week selling as relative optimism is typically replaced by risk aversion as the week goes on. Since the Iran war began, the S&P 500 has actually posted cumulative gains over the first three days of the week but has fallen 9% on Thursdays/Fridays. The rationale is simple; a lot can happen in the war during a two-day untradeable period, especially given Trump’s habit of deliberately announcing disruptive policies when US financial markets are closed.

• After Trump’s nothing-burger address on Thursday provided no clues, traders have begun to scan the calendar for indications of when this war might end. The only event that really jumps out is the mid-May meeting between Trump and Chinese premier Xi. That’s still a long way off.

• Nevertheless, after the best weekly gain of the year for stock markets, the bulls may be starting to chomp at the bit and the bears suddenly look a bit twitchy as Trump looks for an off-ramp to the unpopular war which has clearly not gone as breezily as he assumed it would. The sense is growing that this stock market may soon begin to look for excuses to head north instead of for reasons to sell.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

It’s a disgrace that this is being permitted. If this crap shows up in your 401k or 403b anytime soon, do NOT go anywhere near it!

.. AND I QUOTE ..

”You need nearly twice as much income today to afford the typical US home compared to before COVID.”

Nick Maggiulli, Ritholtz Wealth Management

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Real Estate (two biggest holdings: Welltower, Prologis) ⬆︎ 3.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) ⬇︎ 3.7% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.7% last week, is down 3.8% so far this year and ended the week 6.0% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 1.6% last week, is up 2.1% so far this year and ended the week 7.5% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 3.0% last week, is up 2.7% so far this year and ended the week 8.1% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.70% (3.73% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.79% (3.88% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.94% (4.06% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.31% (4.44% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.99% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.98% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.46%

One week ago: 6.38%, one month ago: 5.99%, one year ago: 6.64%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 99% probability (96% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 1% probability (4% a week ago)

With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 48%

One week ago: 43%, one month ago: 61%, one year ago: 46%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

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Over the weekend Trump threatened to massively raise the stakes by bombing Iranian energy plants if the Strait of Hormuz (which had been closed for 24 days and counting) wasn’t open by Monday night, alarming Asian markets and US stock and bond futures. Just three hours before markets opened in the US on Monday, however, he posted that there were direct negotiations going on between an unidentified “top person” in Iran and the US that had been productive and he was postponing such attacks by five days since Iran “is begging to make a deal”.

News that any peace talks were happening at all was a surprise not only to Wall Street but also apparently to the Iranians, who quickly denied any such dialogue or an inclination to end the conflict.

A confused and increasingly war-weary stock market is clearly not enjoying having its chain yanked by a small number of social media accounts that increasingly feel like they are trying to manipulate asset prices via tactical releases of not always entirely accurate information.

Nevertheless, traders still backed off some of their more pessimistic bets and the stock indexes whip-sawed higher with a wild 3%+ swing in the S&P 500 from the pre-open lows to late-morning highs and closed deep in the green, although well off session highs, as oil prices, interest rates and gold all dropped meaningfully lower.

Monday’s cautious optimism failed to extend into Tuesday’s session with no let up in missile strikes in the region and the brief sharp decline in oil prices and interest rates came to a swift halt. The stock indexes meandered around aimlessly trying and failing to read mixed and sometimes contradictory war signals, eventually closing a touch lower.

Oil prices drifted lower overnight and continued to set the tone for stocks which jumped higher again on Wednesday morning, as some traders began positioning for possible conflict resolution with both sides apparently floating (vastly different) proposals.

Stocks have had a tendency of late to recover quickly and violently from geopolitical shocks and getting caught on the wrong side of such a move by acting on excess pessimism has proven to be painful in many cases. It was this notion that kept prices higher through the close.

However, ceasefire hopes began to fade on Thursday as each side laughed off the other’s proposal and anchored to their extremes. Oil prices and interest rates resumed their climb and stocks sank again as the reward vs. risk calculation of putting on additional long positions ahead of what could be a volatile weekend started to deteriorate.

Trump’s increasingly unconvincing attempts to paint a rosy picture at a cabinet meeting failed dismally to impress Wall Street and in response the stock indexes plunged further to levels not seen since September last year (albeit on relatively light volume), with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading the nosedive and falling into official correction territory, to complete what was a truly horrible session for stocks.

After the closing bell, Trump delivered yet another of his now-famous TACO moments (they do always seem to occur right after a bad day in the stock market), extending his energy attack deadline by ten days. This did nothing to stem the bleeding however and the indexes (once again led by the NASDAQ) continued to crap out on Friday to close out another torrid week of losses. The five straight weeks in the red is the S&P 500’s worst streak since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Last week highlighted the current schizophrenic market reaction to the war; traders are afraid to be uninvested or short in case markets scream rapidly higher on some kind of resolution while they are also afraid to go risk-on as the odds increase that the fallout could be extensive and long-lasting. Which of these two positions seems to be the most reasonable changes literally from day to day, with the latter more in vogue than the former right now.

• Trump may be steadily losing control of the situation, as most observers feared he would. As the quote below from Neil Dutta suggests, there are three major players involved in this conflict: the US, Iran and Israel. While the US may be keen on a ceasefire and a victory lap for its own domestic reasons, it’s not guaranteed that i) Israel will agree or abide by a cessation of hostilities, or ii) Iran will agree or abide by it. Case in point, Israel is continuing its ruthless operation in Gaza, has now opened a new invasion front in Lebanon and is bombing Iranian energy infrastructure. Unlike with tariffs, Trump cannot just flip a light switch here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

How to trade the war. Don’t.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

”You can’t TACO when you’re not the only party involved”

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Macro Research

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the fourth week in a row ⬆︎ 5.5% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Communication Services (two biggest holdings: Google, Meta) ⬇︎ 4.6% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 2.2% last week, is down 7.0% so far this year and ended the week 9.1% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.3% last week, is down 1.2% so far this year and ended the week 10.5% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price was unchanged last week, is down 1.0% so far this year and ended the week 11.4% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.73% (3.74% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 3.88% (3.88% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.06% (4.01% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.44% (4.39% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.99% (4.97% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.98% (4.96% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.38%

One week ago: 6.22%, one month ago: 5.98%, one year ago: 6.65%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 96% probability (88% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 4% probability (12% a week ago)

With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 43%

One week ago: 44%, one month ago: 66%, one year ago: 40%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Global energy markets braced for another week of turmoil after a weekend US attack (“for fun” according to Trump) on Iran’s vital oil export facility on Kharg Island further exacerbated supply disruption.

This kept the oil futures price above $100 to start the week continuing the downward pressure on Asian and European stocks on Monday. Wall Street was beginning to tune out Trump veering incoherently between public threats of intensified strikes, promises of a quick conclusion and victory laps followed by declarations that there was still a lot of bombing left to do.

Nevertheless, Wall Street recovered some of its recent losses to close in the green as reports trickled in that a limited number of tankers were making it through and the price of oil eased a little to straddle the $100 level.

The tentative gains in US stocks continued into Tuesday after favorable sessions in Asia and Europe with the oil price taking a breather from its madcap volatility. The international community’s response to Trump’s “invitation” to send forces to help police the Strait of Hormuz ranged from ambivalence to swift out-of-hand rejection, but in the end was pretty much a blanket “thanks but no thanks” all round.

With two moderately positive sessions under its belt, Wall Street faced Fed Day on Wednesday in a fog-of-war world with energy prices more than 30% higher than where they were when the FOMC rate-setting committee last met in January and renewed oil price jitters after overnight strikes on multiple Persian Gulf oil facilities and stepped-up rhetoric from Iran. A hotter-than-expected PPI inflation report got the day off to a rocky start.

As everyone knew it would, the committee left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.625% (with only one dissent and that was from Trump’s manservant on the committee, Stephen Miran). The mostly unchanged quarterly Dot Plotssaw the majority of the 19 meeting participants pointing to just one rate cut before year-end, although several officials anticipate no reductions at all in 2026. One member even projected a rate increase by mid-2027.

In the press conference, soon-to-be-outgoing chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern at where inflation seems to be heading and finally addressed his future at the Fed. The two-day gain in stock prices was quickly wiped out and shorter term interest rates jumped higher in response.

Thursday saw European central banks in the Eurozone, UK, Switzerland and Sweden joining Japan, Canada and the US in holding interest rates unchanged. There was more escalation in the Middle East with both Israel and Iran (much to Trump’s annoyance) striking energy facilities in the region, temporarily sending oil futures hurtling back towards $120.

Stagflation fears continue to grow. There just wasn’t a lot of good news out there and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell back again, although they did close well off their session lows. Interest rates continued their bumpy ride, marching relentlessly upwards with the impactful 10 year Treasury rate making new highs for the year.

Hopes of some kind of positive bounce-back on Friday were dashed as reports emerged of a potentially risky proposal for a US ground troop occupation of Iranian energy facilities and Trump branded fellow NATO member-nations as “cowards” for scoffing at his idea that they should somehow get more deeply embroiled in a war cooked up by his increasingly isolated administration and Israel, a conflict that is deeply unpopular with their own parliaments and voters.

Stocks plummeted, led lower by tech names and interest rates roared higher in both Europe and the US as traders are now judging that any hopes of a swift end to this war appear to be rapidly evaporating. This was all despite the White House’s increasingly frantic but decreasingly credible messaging that everything is absolutely fine, that this will all wrap up soon, that the Strait of Hormuz “will re-open itself” and that energy prices will quickly revert to pre-war levels as if nothing had happened.

The outcome was another brutal down-week for both stocks and bonds and another vigorous up-week for interest rates and energy prices.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• All the major US and international stock indexes are now negative for 2026 and are all trading below their technically important 200-day moving averages.

• The NASDAQ has now dropped in nine of the past ten weeks.

• At one point on Friday afternoon, the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 Small Cap and the MSCI International indexes all entered into technical corrections, down more than 10% from a recent high.

• Gold just had its worst week in over 40 years. So much for the popular “safe haven” theory!

• According to futures prices, the most likely expected number of Fed Funds Rate cuts this year is now zero (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

• The market probability that the Fed actually increases interest rates sometime in 2026 soared from literally 0% a week ago to over 30% by Friday.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Six (not-so) little lies that we tell ourselves about money.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Once you have something, it means nothing to you.”

Richard Nixon

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the third week in a row ⬆︎ 2.8% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Utilities (two biggest holdings: NextEra Energy, Southern Co.) ⬇︎ 4.9% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 2.1% last week, is down 4.5% so far this year and ended the week 7.1% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 1.8% last week, is down 1.6% so far this year and ended the week 10.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 2.7% last week, is down 1.0% so far this year and ended the week 9.0% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.74% (3.72% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.88% (3.73% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.01% (3.87% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.39% (4.28% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.97% (4.89% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.96% (4.90% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.22%

One week ago: 6.11%, one month ago: 6.01%, one year ago: 6.67%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 88% probability (94% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬆︎ 12% probability (6% a week ago)

With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬇︎ Zero (down one from a week ago and down from two the week before)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 44%

One week ago: 48%, one month ago: 66%, one year ago: 41%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

The oil price blasted through $119 over the weekend with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, forcing major producers to curb production with storage facilities full to the brim. Iran signaled no let-up in its reaction to being bombed by selecting a continuity hardliner as its new leader.

Asian stocks collapsed on Monday in response with Japanese equities entering an official correction. European markets also crumbled, with stocks giving up the entirety of their once-substantial 2026 gains and local interest rates soared.

US stocks are less impacted by energy prices, but still shifted sharply lower at the open before staging a dramatic comeback after the oil price fell back under $90 on the back of Trump seemingly setting up for a quick victory lap, claiming that the conflict is “very complete”. He also asserted that the military operation is “far ahead” of its initial four- to five-week timeframe. The indexes whipsawed and surged to close the session deep in the green.

Asian and European markets mostly took Trump at his word and bounced back nicely but, with zero sign of any de-escalation on the ground and Hegseth contradicting his boss by signaling an active intensification of the conflict, Wall Street was far more skeptical of the president’s claims on Tuesday and failed to follow through on Monday’s furious late rally.

The indexes closed the session unchanged even as the oil price continued its head-spinning reversal, briefly dipping below $80 at one point after Energy Secretary Wright somehow managed to falsely claim that a tanker had been successfully escorted through the Strait.

Overnight, Oracle, whose stock price had been cut in half since September, surprised to the upside with its earnings and the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest release of reserves in history in an attempt to bring down the price of oil.

Before the open on Wednesday, the latest CPI numbers showed February inflation was unchanged as expected at a 2.4% annualized rate. The oil price failed dismally to respond as hoped to the IEA proposal, climbing back above $90.

Stocks essentially flatlined all day and interest rates moved higher in the absence of any further meaningful reliable information coming from the front lines and continued confused messaging from US government officials about the ultimate goals and likely duration of the war.

With three oil tankers ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday after being attacked by Iran despite Trump’s empty promises of naval protection, the US administration announced that it would release some of its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve, suspended the Jones Act and bizarrely even eased oil sanctions on Iran’s close ally, Russia, in increasingly desperate attempts to rein in the unstable oil price which had by now roared back above $100 after a defiant message from Iran’s new leadership and Israel’s continued brutal pounding of Lebanon. The stock indexes took a sizable leg lower with tech and financial names having a particularly rotten session.

Friday was another miserable day for stocks as oil traders refused to be gaslit by Trump and Hegseth’s chest-thumping rah-rah war rhetoric, focusing instead on facts and data and holding the price above $100. The latest GDP estimate (+0.7%) showed even slower economic growth than had been earlier feared and we also saw the highest measure of PCE inflation (+3.1%) for over two years, sending interest rates spiraling higher and snuffing out any slight lingering hopes of a Fed Funds Rate cut this week (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ quickly gave up early gains and sank again to end the week lower and deeper in the red for for 2026.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Everything right now is tethered to energy pricing. That leash is jerking financial markets around as oil and gas prices surge, retreat and then surge again with each new headline. Market memories have begun to flood back to early 2022, when initial highly bullish sentiment was quickly derailed by an oil-price-impacting war in Ukraine and resulted in a distinctively bad year for both stocks and bonds.

• Investors are still just about pricing in a short war. That widespread assumption rests on history and political game theory; Trump’s tendency to back down whenever things get tough, gas prices at the pump spiking ahead of the midterms later this year with both the House and the Senate in play and a calculation that Iran won’t be willing to keep enduring such an air assault.

• Trading algorithms used by major institutions are trained to react to facts and data, not to random tweets and social media nonsense. Last week’s shameless episode of energy secretary and cabinet member Chris Wright deliberately lying on X (even including a fake video) about a market-moving event with the clear intent of trying to manipulate oil prices lower for political gain casts further doubt on how much Wall Street is able to trust any war-related information coming out of this administration.

I was recently interviewed about my practice by Vetta-Fi who host this weekend’s annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas that I am attending. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Accept uncertainty as a starting point.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Trump might have declared that the war was running ahead of schedule, but no-one seems to have told the Iranians.”

Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the second week in a row ⬆︎ 2.0% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Financials (two biggest holdings: Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan) ⬇︎ 3.3% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 1.5% last week, is down 2.9% so far this year and ended the week 5.1% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 1.7% last week, is up 0.2% so far this year and ended the week 7.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 1.6% last week, is up 1.7% so far this year and ended the week 9.0% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.72% (3.69% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.73% (3.56% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.87% (3.72% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.28% (4.15% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.89% (4.74% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.90% (4.77% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.11%

One week ago: 6.00%, one month ago: 6.09%, one year ago: 6.65%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 98% probability (96% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 2% probability (4% a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬇︎ One (down from two a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 48%

One week ago: 56%, one month ago: 65%, one year ago: 33%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

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The US and Israel teamed up to launch a large scale attack on Iran over the weekend killing many hundreds including the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The entire Middle East moved onto a war footing as the Iranians retaliated by firing missiles across the region.

Energy prices naturally skyrocketed in response and stocks gapped severely lower in Asia and Europe on Monday. US markets initially followed suit at the open, but in a pretty orderly fashion with the prevailing consensus expectation of a limited conflict that will end relatively quickly with Trump eager to declare a swift victory. By mid-afternoon, the losses had been fully recovered and the stock indexes finished the session lightly higher, but the recent steep fall in interest rates came to a screeching halt and reversed course.

While Wall Street shrugged off war worries on Monday, Asian and European markets seemed far more concerned as energy prices continued to surge and local stocks and bonds were hammered again on Tuesday.

Emerging reports that America’s hand had been forced by Israel at the weekend cast some doubt on Trump’s ability to control the scale and duration of the conflict and US stocks and bonds re-joined the pity party, tumbling to finish the day deep in the red, although off their lows from earlier in the session after some bottom-fishers began to show up.

Wednesday was another frightful day for Asian markets which continued to crumble with South Korea, previously the world’s best performing stock market in 2026, getting particularly brutalized, suffering the worst one-day crash in its history and down ~20% in just two trading days.

European markets were much more upbeat and by the time Wall Street opened, the dip buyers were large and in charge, carrying the US indexes nicely higher and back to where they were before the bombings began.

Asia rebounded hard on Thursday, with South Korea erasing all of Wednesday’s horrendous losses within minutes of opening. The bargain-hunting frenzy on Wall Street evaporated, however, after reports emerged of interventionist plans for the government to take control of all AI-related export licensing and labor market data and still-soaring oil/gas prices dampened Fed Funds Rate cut hopes. US stocks dived sharply lower again and interest rates continued to march higher.

A horrifying Jobs Report on Friday showed 92k jobs lost in February, raising the unemployment rate to 4.4% and January’s Retail Sales disappointed vs. expectations. Combined with escalating war-related inflation fears, this all gave off a strong whiff of stagflation. The S&P 500 closed the day and the week in the red and all of its 2026 gains are now up in smoke with traders reluctant to go into a potentially unstable weekend with higher-risk long positions on their books.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• While investors should brace for short term volatility, the Middle East conflict in its current state is still not likely to be a bearish game-changer for equities. The military operation does not fundamentally change the economic backdrop for US companies, with the caveat that the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable in this whole saga since markets tend to view conflicts like this through the prism of energy prices. If traffic remains largely halted for several weeks, that will further spike the price of oil/gas and thereby pressure stocks. Absent that scenario, the medium term direction of stock markets is still going to be determined by AI sentiment, economic growth/inflation and Fed Funds Rate cut expectations.

• Five days into the Iran war, the price of gold was below where it was when the first bombs dropped on Tehran. In 2022, as inflation reached its peak of over 9%, the price of gold moved lower. With inflation well below its historical average of 3% in 2025, the price of gold rocketed. It’s high time to toss into the garbage the widespread, simplistic idea that you always need to immediately run to gold as an automatic guaranteed “safe haven” hedge as soon as geopolitics blows up or when inflation spikes. The data simply does not back up these commonly-accepted myths.

• More than $500 million had been staked on Polymarket about the timing of a US strike against Iran by the time it happened on February 28th. Six of the players who reaped combined profits in the millions by correctly anticipating the day of the attack were newly-created user accounts (including one called “magamyman”) that had never placed any other wagers on the platform before. Suspicions about insider trading on prediction markets have grown almost as rapidly as their trading volumes.

I was recently interviewed about my practice by Vetta-Fi who host next weekend’s annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

The amount of 401(k) millionaires just hit a new high. Fidelity reported that the average balance held on their NetBenefits platform rose 11% to $146,100. A reminder that this is the average, NOT the median, which is much, much lower. Bigger balances are doing a lot of the heavy lifting here.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“In a fog of war, markets tend to trade probabilities rather than shifting facts.”

Phil Serafino, Bloomberg.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) ⬆︎ 1.2% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Materials (two biggest holdings: Linde, Newmont) ⬇︎ 6.7% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 2.0% last week, is down 1.4% so far this year and ended the week 3.7% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 4.0% last week, is up 6.2% so far this year and ended the week 7.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 7.0% last week, is up 3.4% so far this year and ended the week 7.5% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.69% (3.67% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.56% (3.38% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.72% (3.51% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.15% (3.97% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.74% (4.57% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.77% (4.64% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.00%

One week ago: 5.98%, one month ago: 6.10%, one year ago: 6.63%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 96% probability (95% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎4% probability (5% a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 56%

One week ago: 65%, one month ago: 67%, one year ago: 47%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Upon further review, a recalibrating, not retreating, Trump decided at the weekend that his 10% supplemental temper tantrum tariff on the whole of planet Earth under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was somehow not enough and he raised it to 15% and also vowed to use the manipulation of trade licenses to “do terrible things” to countries around the world, following the Supreme Court verdict that his signature IEEPA tariffs were illegal.

After quiet holiday-impacted sessions in Asia and Europe, US markets spent a winter storm-blitzed Monday trying to figure out the balance between the swirl of uncertainty generated by the ruling and the fact that, even with the weekend’s additional imposition, the effective average US tariff rate is now a bit lower and more time-limited than it was before the judgement.

Wall Street seemed paralyzed at the open and not just by the snowmaggedon in New York. But then the European Union announced a completely understandable pause in its ratification of the trade deal with the US “pending more clarity”. Software and e-commerce names were spooked by an apocalyptic Substack postfrom an independent research firmthat went viral. IBM’s stock price had it worst day this century. The indexes decided that the only way was down and closed sharply lower.

Asian markets returned to normal on Tuesday after the extended lunar new year holiday and celebrated with gains. Fedex became the first company to sue the US government for a full refund of illegally-imposed tariffs and by the end of the week, 2,000 more lawsuits had been filed. The indexes recovered most of Monday’s losses but trading was cautious ahead of any possible outlandish announcements in Trump’s State of the Union speech later in the evening.

The president theatrically doubled down on tariffs without mentioning China once and downplayed the issue of affordability, neither of which are likely to do much to slow his rapidly-falling approval ratings.

Trump referenced Trump Child Accounts in his State of the Union speech. I recently created an explainer for these. You can read it here.

But there was nothing meaningfully new for Wall Street to chew on on Wednesday and stocks resumed their steady climb back out of Monday’s hole with Nvidia earnings on deck after the close, which have taken on the role as a sort of State of the Union for AI.

The company’s earnings beat expectations and it delivered its usual happy-clappy revenue outlook, but it wasn’t a huge wow and the vigorous two-day stock rebound ran out of steam when markets opened on Thursday. An unenthusiastic response to Nvidia’s numbers pushed the stock price down by over 5% which naturally turned the indexes into the red again and they closed significantly lower.

Stocks continued to tank on Friday after PPI data provided a bit of an inflation scare and AI bubble concerns persisted as Nvidia’s armor seems to have been pierced with another big price drop. Apple and Meta got battered too. A plunge in a number of financial stocks following the collapse of a major UK mortgage lender didn’t help either. The S&P 500 finished lower for the day, the week and the month and is pretty much only flat year to date.

As February came to a close, European stocks wrapped up their eighth straight month of gains, their longest such streak since 2013. The S&P 500, in contrast, suffered its biggest monthly drop since April. Treasury bonds had their best month in over a year as interest rates sank across the curve (the 10-year dropped below 4.00% last week) and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the US fell below 6.00% for the first time in over three years.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• The four pillars of the large cap US stock rally since late 2022 (in order of importance: i) AI enthusiasm, ii) ongoing Fed Funds Rate cuts, iii) stable economic growth and iv) tariff clarity) are still just about in place if we look at them in a medium/longer term time frame, but they are all experiencing meaningful difficulties right now to one degree or another. This is why the rally in the major US indexes is stalling and assets are rotating into smaller capitalization and non-US holdings.

• Another feature of this rotation is that it is rewarding the stocks of companies with lots of capital assets that are costly to replicate and whose core businesses are less exposed to technological annihilation. Wall Street has of course come up with a snappy acronym for this group; HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). We are talking about names like McDonalds, Caterpillar, John Deere, Exxon-Mobil, Coca-Cola, Boeing and even the airlines.

• At the other end of the spectrum, SaaS (Software as a Service) stocks have become ground zero for concerns that AI could potentially destroy earnings power for certain market sectors and these stocks have been badly hurt this year. We are talking about names like Oracle, Palantir, Salesforce, Snowflake, Adobe, Workday, ServiceNow and many others.

• With the price crash from its peak reaching 50% in just four months, almost half the Bitcoin in circulation is now worth less than what its holder originally paid for it. That is why every attempted rally is dying on arrival as burned holders react to each bounce by aggressively selling, constantly killing any upward momentum. That capitulation has a compounding effect. Every sale at a loss removes a holder who might otherwise have been a future buyer.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

A checklist of what to do to be a successful long term investor .. and, very importantly, in what order.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“CEOs are going to hold off, waiting for some form of clarity which they’re not going to get. This is chaos reigns.”

Bill George, former CEO of Medtronic

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Utilities (two biggest holdings: NextEra Energy, Southern Co.) ⬆︎ 3.2% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Financials (two biggest holdings: Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan) ⬇︎ 2.0% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 0.5% last week, is up 0.6% so far this year and ended the week 1.7% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 1.2% last week, is up 6.2% so far this year and ended the week 3.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.5% last week, is up 11.1% so far this year and ended the week 0.6% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.67% (3.69% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.38% (3.48% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.51% (3.65% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.97% (4.08% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.57% (4.66% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.64% (4.72% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 5.98%

One week ago: 6.01%, one month ago: 6.10%, one year ago: 6.76%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 95% probability (96% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬆︎ 5% probability (4% a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 65%

One week ago: 66%, one month ago: 66%, one year ago: 57%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

US markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day after an unusually uneventful weekend on the newswires. Asian and European equities were quiet, but gold, silver and crypto all continued to skid lower and futures trading indicated a shaky open for Wall Street the next day.

The rotation out of certain tech sectors resumed on Tuesday morning and the indexes in general, but the NASDAQ in particular, stumbled out of the gate. Selected software, logistics and real estate names were still being viewed as potential longer term victims of AI and as such remained in Wall Street’s crosshairs at the opening bell.

A positive turnaround kicked in at lunchtime that saw the indexes eventually close unchanged on the day, but it was put down to dip-buyers and bottom-fishers swooping in rather than any real alleviation of the concerns that are at the root of the current price fragility. Meanwhile, European stocks reached more new all-time record highs, emphasizing the US stock market’s worst start to a year relative to other global stock markets since 1995.

We got a big economic data dump on Wednesday morning, showing that industrial production jumped by the most in almost a year, that housing starts hit a five-month high and that durable goods orders declined in line with expectations.

The minutes from the Fed’s most recent rate-setting meeting revealed that most committee members appear to have little appetite for cutting the Fed Funds Rateagain any time soon, believing that downside risks to employment have moderated while the threat of persistent inflation remains, particularly following confirmation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York of multiple reports showing that American consumers and businesses are bearing 90%+ of all tariff costs.

The bargain-hunting continued with some disproportionate buying of the most recently-damaged names with a sense that the tech punishment meted out by traders recently may have been overdone. The stock indexes finished moderately higher.

The US trade deficit has now ballooned to its widest level since the 1960s as data released on Thursday morning showed that exports fell hard and imports rocketed, pushing back hard against the happy-clappy narrative being pushed by the administration. Increased geopolitical concerns in and around Iran also dampened enthusiasm by spiking oil prices again and the indexes took a dive.

We learned from pre-market releases on Friday that PCE annual inflation in December rose to 2.9% and that the latest (shutdown-impacted) Q4 GDP growth estimate crashed from 4.4% to 1.4%.

But the big news came at 10am ET when the Supreme Court struck down and overturned most of Trump’s tariffs (all of those under the IEEPA statute) by ruling that he broke the law when he imposed them, opening the door to utter chaos as companies and countries seek to swiftly drain the US Treasury of up to $170 billion in refunds for illegally-charged tariffs and international trade deals were immediately invalidated.

A scorned Trump went completely off the rails, slamming Supreme Court justices as "fools and lapdogs" who had been influenced by foreign “slimeballs” and lashed out by instantly imposing a new snap 10% (non-IEEPA) tariff on the entire world, which he later raised to 15%.

Amazingly, stock prices barely responded, moving somewhat higher on the rather dubious idea that this was some kind of tariff reprieve while seemingly not showing much concern about the sheer mayhem that could be generated by the ruling and the notoriously thin-skinned and impulsive president's highly unpredictable potential responses, particularly right before a State Of The Union speech on Tuesday (where, interestingly, protocol dictates a handshake between Trump and all the Supreme Court justices!) and with the US military poised to strike Iran on his say-so.

The stock indexes closed in the green for the week but this upcoming five days has firestorm potential, including Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

• Holding an index long term using an ETF or mutual fund is not as static an investment as you might think. Since 1985, 365 companies have lost their place in the S&P 500 and been replaced, an almost 75% turnover averaging about 9 ejections per year. This self-adjustment benefits long term investors over extended periods of time by adapting their holdings according to what is happening in the economy without a need for them to guesstimate when to make sell and buy decisions. Holding an individual stock is a completely static investment that involves market amateurs needing to play the fool’s game of making the kind of timing judgments that even highly-paid full-time market professionals routinely fail at.

• Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta have now lost a combined $1 trillion in value since their latest quarterly earnings releases. Wall Street is showing signs of falling out of love with some of the names that have worked so well for years as rising spending fuels fears that these companies are building too much, too fast. This doesn’t mean that the three-year old bull market in stocks is over or that the tech sector is suddenly a bad investment, but it does mean we should anticipate likely heightened volatility.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“Replacing facts with noise is an awful way to manage your money.” Ritholtz’s Tony Isola urges us not to mistake discomfort for danger.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“It’s no longer the case that the company that spends the most on AI infrastructure wins”

Tom Essaye, founder and president, Sevens Report

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Communication Services (two biggest holdings: Alphabet/Google, Meta) ⬆︎ 1.9% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Consumer Defensive (two biggest holdings: Walmart, Costco) ⬇︎ 1.8% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.1% last week, is up 1.1% so far this year and ended the week 1.2% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.6% last week, is up 7.5% so far this year and ended the week 2.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.2% last week, is up 10.5% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.69% (3.68% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.48% (3.40% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.65% (3.61% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.08% (4.04% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.66% (4.64% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.72% (4.69% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.01%

One week ago: 6.09%, one month ago: 6.08%, one year ago: 6.85%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 96% probability (90% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 4% probability (10% a week ago)

When is the most commonly-expected month of the next Fed Funds interest rate cut?

• June (unchanged from a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool and Polymarket as of the market close on Friday.

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%).

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 66%

One week ago: 65%, one month ago: 63%, one year ago: 59%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

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A jam-packed week of major economic data and more earnings reports began on Monday with Japanese stocks reaching all-time record highs after the weekend’s landslide election victory of prime minister Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the sprawling Epstein scandal engulfed Commerce Secretary Lutnick and the related political crisis in the UK drove local interest rates meaningfully higher.

The feel-good vibes from the previous Friday’s dramatic stock turnaround on Wall Street continued into Monday’s session with the bulls back in control and the indexes made up more of the ground lost during the three-day tech wreck of February 3rd-5th, pulling the S&P 500 back to within touching distance of yet another all-time record high.

After another upbeat session in Asia where stocks are outperforming US equities by the most this century, a mixed premarket on Wall Street on Tuesday saw underwhelming earnings from Coca-Cola, a solid report from Spotify and a disappointing December Retail Sales number.

Stocks seemed undecided about how to proceed, obviously totally dismissing Trump’s idiotic prediction of a 15%+ GDP increase this year (it’s currently running at a historically quite high level of 4.4%). In the end the indexes went nowhere, closing fractionally lower. Interest rates continued to sink.

Jobs Report day dawned on Wednesday and when the numbers dropped pre-market, we got a positive blowout which pushed back on the prior week’s gloomy labor market statistics that had helped contribute to the mini-crash in the indexes.

New job creation in January obliterated estimates (with particularly robust employment in education and healthcare) and the overall unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. This signal of economic strength initially boosted stock prices and interest rates briefly spiked back higher as the data poured cold water on the need for any more imminent Fed Funds Rate cuts.

But attention quickly shifted back from trading headlines to more general themes like where we are on tariffs (sixHouse Republicans voted with Democrats to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada), earnings durability and capital expenditure plans (especially on AI). The indexes pulled back to where they started and then flatlined for the rest of the day.

European stocks reached new all-time highs overnight on Thursday. Before US markets got under way, we got results from Cisco which showed thin margins and included a downbeat outlook and some pretty dire numbers from Coinbase and both stocks were heavily punished, but McDonalds impressed with its report. The number of existing home sales plummeted.

The indexes got off to another sluggish start before collapsing in the afternoon to close considerably lower on growing fears of AI disruption of industries like real estate, law, media, travel, logistics and financial services as well as something of a reassessment of the previous day’s jobs data. Meanwhile, gold, silver and crypto began to crap out again.

Shutdown-distorted January CPI inflation data was finally released on Friday morning and came in pretty much as expected with the annualized rate easing to 2.4%, mostly driven by a fall in gas prices and a stabilization in shelter costs but tariff-impacted prices continue to increase at an alarming pace.

Nevertheless, a sense of having dodged an inflation bullet pushed stocks up early on before the indexes fizzled out to finish flat for the day but down for the week ahead of another long weekend. Bonds had their best week since October as two-year and ten-year interest rates tumbled (see INTEREST RATES below).

Some things I’m thinking about ..

• Traders are no longer mindlessly taking the AI story at face value and are starting to respond by hiding out in old school names from sectors likely to be less penetrated by AI, such as Consumer Defensive, Industrials and Materials.

• AI was supposed to be a slam dunk trade. However, it is now becoming a potential challenge for investors, not so much in terms of the firms building it out, but to the stocks of some major companies whose underlying business models are threatened by it.

• Developing AI skepticism (described by one analyst as a gradual change from “AI-phoria to AI-phobia”) is also impacting the relative global performance of the tech-dependent overall US stock market (as represented by the S&P 500) which currently sits in a rather sad 69th position in this year’s league table of 92 stock indexes from around the world (South Korea is top of the pile).

• Delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to their highest level since 2017, now standing at 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt. The increase was mainly driven by rising defaults in mortgage payments among low-income and younger borrowers as well as the resumption of reporting on student loan repayments.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“When you admit that you don’t know the future, it’s a lot easier to deal with it when it doesn’t go as planned.”

Ritholtz’s Nick Maggiulli on why the consensus can often be wrong and how to stay onside when this happens.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“You just have to be prepared to be wrong and understand that your ego had better not depend on being proven right.”

Peter Bernstein, financial historian, economist and educator

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Utilities (two biggest holdings: NextEra Energy, Southern Co.) ⬆︎ 7.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Financials (two biggest holdings: Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan Chase) ⬇︎ 4.8% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 1.3% last week, is flat so far this year and ended the week 2.3% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 0.8% last week, is up 6.8% so far this year and ended the week 3.2% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.7% last week, is up 9.2% so far this year and ended the week 1.0% below its all-time record closing high (02/11/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬌ 3.68% (3.68% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.40% (3.50% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.61% (3.76% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.04% (4.22% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.64% (4.80% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.69% (4.85% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.09%

One week ago: 6.11%, one month ago: 6.10%, one year ago: 6.87%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 90% probability (77% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 10% probability (23% a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 65%

One week ago: 67%, one month ago: 64%, one year ago: 59%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

The weekend’s headlines were dominated by yet more repulsive Epstein slime which has thankfully (so far) not seeped into the consideration of US financial markets, although UK Prime Minister Starmer is certainly feeling the heat about probable related diplomatic cover-ups. The recent gold and silver party came to a crunching halt and prices utterly collapsed in what was the biggest precious metals crash in modern history.

The carnage extended to crypto which has finally been exposed as nothing more than a speculative asset. Bitcoin is now in complete free-fall, having crashed by 50% in three months and by 27% already in 2026. The price is well below where it was when its supposed champion Trump was elected. Over a trillion dollars in value has been lost in crypto since October.

However, stock markets had earnings squarely in focus on Monday, recovering strongly following a three-day pullback from record highs to start a week containing more Mag 7 and other big name reporting - but Friday’s scheduled Jobs Report fell victim to the shutdown with the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily closed.

Traders also continued to digest the nomination of Kevin Warsh to head up the Federal Reserve in May who is seen as perhaps more inclined than the other candidates to make a stand against inflation. Palantir and Samsung impressed with their earnings reports. The indexes finished nicely higher.

Software names got badly spooked on Tuesday morning by an Anthropic product release and Monday’s gains in the major indexes were instantly wiped out and things only went further downhill from there, especially for the NASDAQ as tech names were heavily pounded.

More earnings reports on Wednesday morning, with Wall Street handing out flowers to Eli Lilly but brutally punishing AMD and Novo Nordisk. The nagging doubts about AI spending and financing that had triggered Tuesday’s tech wipeout would not go away and the major indexes found it tough to mount any kind of meaningful comeback, eventually falling back again to close in the red with AI and software names once again the most damaged as the violent rotation out of 2025’s winners and into more defensive and value-oriented sectors picked up speed.

Alphabet/Google reported decent Q4 earnings after the close but announced plans to double its AI spend to a level far higher than analysts expected and Wall Street is currently fixated on capital expenditure when it comes to tech companies. The after-market took the stock lower.

Interest rates were held steady in the Euro Zone and the UK overnight on Thursday. Private surveys and government JOLTS data showed the most US layoffs since 2009, a steep decline in job openings and a jump in weekly Jobless Claims which didn’t bode well for the upcoming delayed Jobs Report.

The tech rout deepened, accelerated by earnings-driven declines from index heavyweights Google and Qualcomm. After a brief hiatus, precious metals and crypto resumed their colossal price drops. This time there was nowhere to hide and by the close there was blood red spattered everywhere across trading screens.

Any hopes that Amazon’s report after the bell would stop the pain were dashed as the week’s steady drumbeat of troubling news continued. The earnings came in largely as anticipated but traders got déjà-vu when the company announced projected expenditure that blew through expectations and the stock price crumbled.

The indexes rebounded hard on Friday despite Amazon’s meltdown as dip buyers, bottom fishers and bargain hunters seemed to decide that, for the time being at least, enough was enough and swooped in to pick up some of the most beaten-down names, driving the indexes solidly higher by the close, with the S&P 500 managing to close out the week barely changed and the more tech-light Small Caps and international stocks actually finishing with weekly gains. Even crypto and precious metals temporarily paused their relentless nosedives.

The postponed Job Report will now come out this coming Wednesday and the latest CPI inflation numbers on Friday, making the upcoming week a jumbo one for important economic data.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

How do you stack up? The average/median net worth by age in America.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Things that have never happened before happen all the time.”

Morgan Housel, author and co-founder of The Collaborative Fund

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Consumer Defensive (two biggest holdings: Walmart, Costco) ⬆︎ 5.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Communication Services (two biggest holdings: Google, Meta) ⬇︎ 3.6% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 0.2% last week, is up 1.3% so far this year and ended the week 1.0% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 2.1% last week, is up 7.7% so far this year and ended the week 2.4% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.7% last week, is up 7.4% so far this year and ended the week 0.5% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.68% (3.67% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.50% (3.52% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.76% (3.79% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.22% (4.26% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.80% (4.82% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.85% (4.87% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.11%

One week ago: 6.10%, one month ago: 6.16%, one year ago: 6.89%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 77% probability (85% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬆︎ 23% probability (15% a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 67%

One week ago: 63%, one month ago: 63%, one year ago: 57%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

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The weekend’s appalling events in Minnesota provoked Congressional maneuvering that triggered the very real risk of another federal government shutdown by the end of the week (the prediction market odds rocketed from a 9% likelihood to 80% in a matter of hours) which could toss financial markets into another economic data slop bucket.

Nevertheless, following a choppy Asian session, New York traders who made it to their posts on Monday in the wake of the winter storm carried stocks higher to within touching distance of more new all-time record highs on subdued volume to start a week dominated by Big Tech earnings and a Fed meeting.

Trump barked more threats at Canada and South Korea, but markets aren’t really listening any more as the default position now appears to be that he’s more likely than not going to backtrack on his tariff rhetoric, so why bother worrying about it?

Consumer confidence in the economy cratered to twelve-year lows and is now at levels well below where it was even in the scary early weeks of COVID, according to data released on Tuesday. Amazon and UPS announced colossal layoffs. A good number of healthcare and insurance stocks plunged as Medicare payment rates from the government were essentially frozen and United Healthcare simultaneously issued an awful earnings report and a depressing outlook.

But Wall Street shrugged off this rather miserable backdrop, seemingly betting that Congress will eventually find some kind of a shutdown off-ramp before the weekend and the indexes moved upwards again on the back of some mostly positive other (more B-list) Q4 earnings with a number of higher impact Mag 7 reports on deck for later in the week. The S&P 500 index closed at yet another all-time high.

A big Wednesday dawned with stocks adding some weight to the rally with the S&P 500 briefly breaking through 7000 at the open in advance of the Fed Funds Rate decision at 2pm ET and chairman Powell’s press conference half an hour later.

Obviously there was no rate cut with two dissents out of twelve voting members, including one from next-chairman-candidate Chris Waller, which was perceived by most observers as nothing more than a “Look at me sir, I’m doing what you asked! Please pick me!” signal to Trump.

In what ended up being a snoozer of a press conference, Powell shut down any discussion of the threats from the White House to his own position or to Fed independence in general. Stocks closed the session flat and attention quickly turned to post-closing bell Q4 earnings reports from three of the big dogs.

The bar is high when it comes to tech earnings and simply matching or even somewhat beating expectations is simply not good enough any more. While Tesla’s results were just meh, Meta meaningfully topped estimates by enough to see its stock price move higher in the aftermarket. Microsoft strongly disappointed.

Geopolitics returned to center stage on Thursday with Trump’s war threats and Iran’s aggressive response spiking oil prices. The US trade deficit widened as exports fell and imports rose despite tariffs. At least a partial government shutdown by the weekend remained very much on the table. Meta soared higher but Microsoft crashed hard and had its worst day in over five years.

The indexes took this all very badly at the open, particularly Big Tech as markets were reminded about gigantic levels of AI spending that may or may not pay off and the rising risks of ongoing circular financing in the industry.

A late bout of dip-buying limited the damage and after the bell we got Apple’s earnings. AAPL shares had fallen for eight straight weeks, the longest such losing streak since 1993 but the report was impressive, beating expectations on most metrics including record-ever global iPhone sales.

Senate Democrats and the White House appeared to be close to a deal on Thursday night to kick the shutdown can down the road, but the big news on Friday morning was Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed chairman. While not Wall Street’s first choice (that was Rick Rieder), there was some relief that the awful Kevin Hassett and teacher’s pet Chris Waller were not tapped.

Stock market reaction was initially muted and interest rates didn’t do much, indicating that Wall Street was generally comfortable with the choice but also Warsh’s Senate confirmation is not yet in the bag.

However, stocks spent the rest of the session accelerating losses - once again dragged down by tech - to finish the day in the red, the week essentially unchanged but the month in the green.

Last week, the US Dollar fell to levels not seen since 2021 and a declining domestic currency makes holding overseas securities more attractive for US-based investors and the strong outperformance of international stock ETFs reflects this (including all-time record highs just last week). Also, Small Cap stocks in the US are behaving significantly better than Large Cap stocks so far this year (see LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS below).

This all emphasizes the importance of holding a non-concentrated, sensibly diversified portfolio that goes well beyond just big US tech companies. Owning individual stocks or even nothing but a market-cap weighted S&P 500 or NASDAQ index fund is sub-optimal right now.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“People take more risk when stocks go up and the economy is booming, and it can last surprisingly long.”The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig on the importance of separating a “Mad Money” cowboy account where you screw around with speculative bets from your actual real investments.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Investors hate uncertainty. Well, that’s just tough. Uncertainty is all investors have ever gotten.”

Jason Zweig, Wall Street Journal

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy for the second week in a row (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) ⬆︎ 3.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Healthcare (two biggest holdings: Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson) ⬇︎ 1.7% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 0.4% last week, is up 1.5% so far this year and ended the week 0.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 2.0% last week, is up 5.5% so far this year and ended the week 4.4% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.2% last week, is up 5.6% so far this year and ended the week 2.2% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.67% (3.70% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.52% (3.60% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.79% (3.84% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.26% (4.24% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.82% (4.78% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.87% (4.82% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.10%

One week ago: 6.09%, one month ago: 6.16%, one year ago: 6.95%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 85% probability (85% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 15% probability (15% a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 63%

One week ago: 65%, one month ago: 63%, one year ago: 61%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Trump weaponized tariffs again over the weekend but this time in order to pursue his global territorial ambitions. He proposed tariff-based sanctions on allied countries voicing concerns over a proposed illegal US annexation of Greenland, including the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands as well as the Nordic bloc, who reacted by forcefully reiterating their “non-negotiable” support for Greenland’s fundamental right to self-determination and Denmark’s existing oversight over the territory.

US markets were closed on Monday but stocks tumbled in Europe in response to the growing Greenland s**t-show as European leaders finally showed the first hint of a backbone, weighing retaliatory tariffs on $100 billion of US goods.

Meanwhile the skies above Davos, Switzerland were swarming with private jets as the odious, self-absorbed annual gathering got under way and attendees began scoffing their caviar and lobster while bracing for Trump’s arrival on Wednesday.

Back in the real world, Wall Street aggressively dumped stocks across the board on Tuesday, driven by the apparent resumption of global tariff wars (Trump threatened a crushing 200% on French wines and, annoyingly for the Davos crowd, champagne) and a return of the “Sell America” trade as well as developments in Japan where fiscal concerns caused local long term interest rates to skyrocket to all-time highs (see .. AND I QUOTE .. below).

Stock indexes all closed substantially lower for their worst session since last April’s “Liberation Day” meltdown with Big Tech/AI names worst affected.

After the closing bell, Netflix reported decent Q4 earnings, but the market reaction was negative with continued uncertainty about the company’s spending pending the final outcome of the Warner Brothers saga and the stock extended its recent slump (down 30% over the last three months).

On Wednesday morning, Trump delivered a rambling 90-minute + speech in Davos to an audience very well-schooled in business and economic data that was filled with a lot of statistics and statements that were, shall we say, rather divergent from the truth (including the “total defeat” of US inflation, a 5%+ economic growth rate, the mathematically impossible reduction of prescription drug prices by thousands of percent, his eight solved wars etc., to name but a few).

He doubled down on the US annexation of Greenland (“it’s our territory”), mistook Iceland for Greenland four times, revived his 2020 election delusions (“prosecutions are coming”) andfloated his absurd notions of capping credit card interest rates at 10% till just after the midterms, banning institutional ownership of houses and blocking private companies in the aerospace and defense sectors from paying any dividends to shareholders.

From this smorgasbord of available narratives, Wall Street initially chose to pick up on his apparent pledge not to take Greenland by military force and stocks stabilized after Tuesday’s rout. Then, mid-afternoon, Trump unveiled his biggest and quickest TACO climbdown ever in the face of a unified resistance from Europe and the worrying reaction of financial markets, announcing that the punitive Greenland-related tariffs proposed just four days earlier would now not go into effect.

This obliterated much of the rationale for Tuesday’s heavy decline and the stock indexes roared higher to erase about two-thirds of it in the final hours of trading.

The geopolitical de-escalation recovery in stocks continued on Thursday as dip-buyers held a victory lap. The PCE report came in as expected, confirming continued sticky inflation (2.8%) and gradually slowing economic growth. The indexes closed nicely higher again although still a little short of where they were on Friday of the previous week. After hours, Intel (10% owned by the US government) disappointed with its earnings report and provided a shaky outlook. The stock price got absolutely spanked in the after-market.

A wild week came to a muted close on Friday as the recovery rally faded with Intel’s plunge stifling any further gains. By the closing bell, the indexes had barely moved, suffering their first back-to-back weekly losses since June and New York traders hurried home to prepare for the monster snowstorm.

The Fed interest rate-setting meeting this coming Wednesday will be interesting, not because it is likely to make any moves (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below), but because chairman Powell will be peppered with questions from the financial press pack about his job security and the future of Fed independence from presidential interference.

The beauty pageant that is the selection process for the role to succeed Powell as the next Fed chairman seems to be coming to a close and the odds are changing rapidly. Wall Street seems mightily relieved that Trump glove puppet Kevin Hassett’s chances appear to have collapsed and that Rick Rieder’s star is on the rise.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Even if you definitively knew the future (impossible, of course), you would still fail to successfully time the market because you wouldn’t know how others will react, which is all that matters.

A must-read article from Ritholz’s Nick Maggiulli for anyone who thinks they can outsmart the market. TLDR: You can’t.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“What happened in Japan is a very important message to the House and to the Senate: You need to get our fiscal house in order.”

Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) ⬆︎ 3.2% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Financials (two biggest holdings: Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan) ⬇︎ 2.5% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 0.4% last week, is up 1.1% so far this year and ended the week 1.0% below its all-time record closing high (01/12/2026).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 0.4% last week, is up 7.6% so far this year and ended the week 1.0% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.1% last week, is up 5.4% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.70% (3.67% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.60% (3.59% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.84% (3.82% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 4.24% (4.24% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.78% (4.79% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.82% (4.83% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.09%

One week ago: 6.06%, one month ago: 6.19%, one year ago: 6.96%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on January 28th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 97% probability (96% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎3% probability (4% a week ago)

With eight rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 65%

One week ago: 67%, one month ago: 61%, one year ago: 60%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Three potentially significant market-impacting stories developed over the weekend.

• Firstly, Trump’s desperation to do away with Fed chairman Jerome Powell, demolish the independence of the central bank and take personal control of US interest rate policy resulted in an obvious intimidation tactic of a criminal prosecution threat. Incredibly, a haggard-looking Powell was forced onto YouTube on Sunday, vowing to stand firm against extraordinary White House political interference.

• Secondly, the president outright told reporters “We are going to take Greenland” even though the US has precisely zero legal or historical basis for doing so. Such a move by military force could destroy NATO.

• Thirdly, an escalation in both rhetoric and violence in Iran put to the test Trump’s recent threat to react militarily to the Iranian authorities killing protesters, something that has undoubtedly already taken place.

Wall Street was understandably spooked by this avalanche of uncertainty at the opening bell on Monday. Stocks initially pulled back from record high levels, interest rates jumped and the US Dollar dived. The financial sector was particularly rattled after Trump baselessly claimed that any credit card company charging over 10% interest (the national average is currently 21%) after Monday 20th January would be “breaking the law”.

Traders eventually turned their focus from the stream of bizarre proclamations coming from the White House to upcoming Q4 earnings and the indexes recovered to score mild gains and close at yet more new record highs. Alphabet/Google became just the fourth company to ever move above a $4 trillion valuation.

After Asian stock markets reached new all-time record highs overnight amid the announcement of a snap election in Japan, the main event in the US on Tuesday was the pre-market CPI report which showed an as-expected 2.7% annualized inflation rate, but falling prices at the gas pump masked some quite significant increases elsewhere.

The data provided a brief crumb of hope for a Fed Funds Rate cut on January 28th, but it is still considered to be a very long shot (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). JPMorgan and Delta Airlines kicked off the earnings season but traders were unimpressed and the indexes slipped downwards, finishing near the lows of the day.

Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citibank joined JPMorgan on Wall Street’s naughty step after earnings disappointments on Wednesday morning. We also got a pre-market PPI reading that validated the CPI inflation outlook but Retail Salescontinued to hold up.

Big Tech/AI names bore the brunt of what appeared to be an intense bout of Large Cap profit-taking with S&P 500 and NASDAQ finishing the session meaningfully lower with every Magnificent Seven stock closing in the red, but at the same time the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index scored its fourth all-time record high of the young year, emphasizing the under-the-surface rotation that seems to be taking place.

On Thursday morning, a very low weekly Jobless Claims number poured cold water on any flickering hopes of a January rate cut and interest rates spiked up again to four month highs.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Taiwan Semiconductor all delivered solid Q4 earnings and the major indexes finished the session back in the green with a renewed spring in their step as the somewhat shaky start to the week seemed to trigger some dip-buying of the more beaten-down names.

Stocks meandered along aimlessly on a quiet Friday in advance of a three-day weekend as a volatile week came to an end with another utterly bonkers proposal, this time teased by Fed chairmanship candidate and Trump’s grinning bootlicker-in-chief Kevin Hassett, to encourage people to empty their workplace retirement plans to buy a house.

The major indexes closed on Friday pretty much where they had opened on Monday, except for Small Caps which were considerably higher following eleven consecutive days of outperforming the big boys in the S&P 500 - the longest such streak since the late 1980s.

The events of the last couple of weeks have shown that pretty much anything is on the table for this administration when it comes to short term electoral bribes between now and the midterms. Investors need to be braced for a “flood the zone”strategy of wave after wave of outlandish populist proposals in the lead-up to November 3rd, many (but not all) of which may well be just mindless rhetoric and constitutionally unachievable.

The relative lack of market reaction to all this preposterous blather, as well as to the now open warfare between the president and the central bank, seems to be emboldening Trump. So far, financial markets are treating it all as just political theater but at some point (maybe this week at the repulsive and out-of-touch orgy of self-congratulation, brown-nosing and performative b**t in Davos?), the ambiguity and recklessness of many of these Soviet-style interventionist schemes will likely take their toll with potentially damaging consequences for risk assets and, while we’re not there yet, we may well be getting closer.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“If the home you live in goes from $200k to $1m, you are not wealthy, because the replacement home also costs $1m. You are trapped.”

Ritholtz’s Nick Maggiulli asks, Is Home Equity Fake Wealth?

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“An unprecedented attempt to use prosecutorial attacks to undermine [Federal Reserve] independence”.

Eleven ex-Treasury Secretaries, past Fed chairs and top economists in a joint statement describing last week’s threatened criminal probe into Fed chairman Powell.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Real Estate (two biggest holdings: Welltower, Prologis) ⬆︎ 4.2% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Communication Services (two biggest holdings: Google, Meta) ⬇︎ 2.3% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 0.4% last week, is up 1.4% so far this year and ended the week 0.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/12/2026)

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 2.1% last week, is up 8.0% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.0% last week, is up 4.2% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.67% (3.62% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.59% (3.54% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.82% (3.75% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.24% (4.18% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.79% (4.76% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.83% (4.82% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.06%

One week ago: 6.16%, one month ago: 6.21%, one year ago: 7.04%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on January 28th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬌ 96% probability (96% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬌ 4% probability (4% a week ago)

With eight rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 67%

One week ago: 64%, one month ago: 60%, one year ago: 58%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

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The weekend newswires were obviously dominated by the abduction of Nicolas Maduro and his wife during a large-scale deadly US military attack on Venezuela. Trump bizarrely declared US remote sovereignty over thecountrythat supposedly has the world’s largest oil reserves, with zero detail about how this would be accomplished but also refusing to rule out the deployment of American troops on the ground.

It was also heavily implied that either Cuba, Colombia, Mexico or Greenland could be the next cab off the rank for similar treatment.

As stock traders got back to the grind after the holidays on Monday, Asian and European markets and even the oil price mostly shrugged off the weekend’s events and US stocks sprang higher at the open, led by energy names who stand to potentially benefit from developments in Venezuela and tech names with the kick-off in Las Vegas of the annual CES, a kind of battleground for chipmakers and designers to announce and show off their sexy new products. But a late-arriving Santa Claus had gifts for most of the risk-on sectors and the indexes closed the session solidly higher on much improved volume.

Stocks opened in a more muted fashion on Tuesday morning but quickly picked up steam as the session wore on. The gains seemed to be simply momentum-based as there was no real news, data or a specific catalyst for the rise in the indexes, but the S&P 500 still reached its first new all-time record high of the year, creeping ever closer to the 7,000 mark.

Wednesday saw heavily-outdated JOLTS data indicating an expected decline in job openings, an also-anticipated drop in Durable Goods orders as well as flashpoints in international waters as the US military ran around seizing Venezuela-linked oil tankers, including an empty Russian one.

Stocks continued higher at a more cautious pace but a late day swoon ended the three-day winning streak after Trump went on an out-of-left-field social media blitz to signal a ban on large investors from buying homes, forced taxpayer purchase of mortgage bonds and aerospace and defense companies (think GE, Lockheed Martin, possibly even Boeing) to no longer be allowed to issue dividends to shareholders while at the same time advocating for sky-high, deficit-busting levels of more than half a trillion dollars of increased defense spending.

This slew of outlandish interventionist policy proclamations continued to weigh on enthusiasm on Thursday and the stock indexes basically spent the session treading water but with a somewhat noticeable rotation out of the Magnificent Seven into Small Cap stocks with the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index achieving a new all-time record high.

We finally got to see a cleaner Jobs Report pre-market on Friday after recent data contamination due to the shutdown which showed a lackluster level of new job creation but a drop in the unemployment rate to below 4.4%. As a result, the odds of a January 28th cut in the Fed Funds Rate tumbled to negligible levels (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

Stock indexes moved steadily higher and deeper into record territory, once again led by Small Caps, bringing to an end an exhausting but price-positive week with the anticipation of the Q4 earnings season kicking off in the coming days.

I don’t usually focus on individual names in this report, but here’s a pop quiz .. Where do you think Nvidia’s returns in 2025 ranked among the stocks in the S&P 500 index?.. The answer might surprise many, Nvidia was actually only the 75th best performer out of the 500 (#1 was SanDisk), but it was the biggest contributor to the positive performance of the index (and thereby to S&P 500-tracking ETFs and mutual funds) due to its high weighting (almost 8% of the entire index).

As a group, all of the Magnificent Seven stocks outperformed the S&P 500 index in 2023, six of them did in 2024 but just two of them did in 2025.

The fact is that Nvidia’s stock price has been in the doldrums since late October and remains 10% lower than it was back then on capital spending concerns, while the S&P 500 has traded at multiple new all-time highs in that time, including again just last week.

The bar for further large gains in Nvidia’s price is high but among other components of the S&P 500 index and others (including international indexes), there appear to be plenty of stocks (Google, AMD and a collection of overseas companies, for example) willing to pick up Nvidia’s slack.

So, yet again, we see the overwhelming argument for holding thousands of different stocks across multiple geographies, sectors and capitalizations using ETFs rather than concentrating your bets by selectively picking just a handful of names, bets you will likely lose.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Prediction platforms are enabling bets on everything from who’ll be the next Fed chairman to will Zelensky wear a suit, from the World Cup winner to the timing of a second coming of Jesus Christ. But there are significant questions about access, integrity and regulation.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“We think people are sleeping on the macro risks — and [Venezuela] is a macro risk we didn’t even see.”

Christopher Harvey, Head of equity and portfolio strategy, CIBC Capital Markets

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Consumer Cyclical (two biggest holdings: Amazon, Tesla) ⬆︎ 5.1% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Utilities (two biggest holdings: NextEra Energy, Constellation) ⬇︎ 1.6% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.6% last week, is up 1.7% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 4.6% last week, is up 5.7% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.7% last week, is up 3.2% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.62% (3.65% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.54% (3.47% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.75% (3.74% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.18% (4.19% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.76% (4.81% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.82% (4.86% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬆︎ 6.16%

One week ago: 6.15%, one month ago: 6.21%, one year ago: 6.93%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on January 28th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 96% probability (83% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 4% probability (17% a week ago)

With eight rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬆︎ 64%

One week ago: 59%, one month ago: 56%, one year ago: 55%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

Anglia Advisors recently updated its Privacy Policy. You can view the latest version here.

WWW.ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | SIMON@ANGLIAADVISORS.COM | CALL OR TEXT: (646) 286 0290 | FOLLOW ANGLIA ADVISORS ON INSTAGRAM

This material represents a highly opinionated, speculative assessment of the financial market environment based on assumptions and prevailing information and data at a specific point in time and is always subject to change at any time. Although the content is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is ever given. It is never to be interpreted as an attempt to forecast any future events, nor does it offer any kind of guarantee whatsoever of future results, circumstances or outcomes.

The material contained herein is not necessarily complete and is also wholly insufficient to be relied upon as research or investment advice or as a sole basis for any financial determinations, including investment decisions or making any kind of consumer choices, without further consultation with Anglia Advisors or other fully-qualified Registered Investment Advisor. The user assumes the entire risk of any decisions made or actions taken based in whole or in part on any of the information provided in this or any other Anglia Advisors published content.

Under no circumstances is any Anglia Advisors’ content ever intended to constitute tax, legal or medical advice and should never be taken as such. Neither the information contained nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any security or asset class. No formal client advice may be rendered by Anglia Advisors unless and until a properly-executed client engagement agreement is in place.

Posts may contain links or references to third party websites or may post data or graphics from them for the convenience and interest of readers. While Anglia Advisors might have reason to believe in the quality of the content provided on these sites, the firm has no control over, and is not in any way responsible for, the accuracy of such content nor for the security or privacy protocols that external sites may or may not employ. By making use of such links, the user assumes, in its entirety, any kind of risk associated with accessing them or making use of any information provided therein.

Those associated with Anglia Advisors, including clients with managed or advised investments, may maintain positions in securities and/or asset classes mentioned in this post.

If you enjoyed this post, why not share it with someone?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

View Details

Another holiday-shortened week began with Trump holding an apparently chummy meeting in Florida with Zelensky followed by a cozy phone call with Putin, but the desperate PR spin from all sides afterwards was unable to mask the reality that a workable peace deal is still well out of reach.

Stocks retreated further on Monday from their Xmas Eve record highs on pitiful trading volume on the back of some year-end profit-taking as niggling doubts persisted about AI company valuations and the ultimate projected rate of return on their gigantic levels of spending. Interest rates inched higher.

The penultimate trading day of the year on Tuesday saw a churn to nowhere for stocks. The release of the minutes from the most recent Fed rate-setting meeting that voted to cut by 0.25% indicated a divided committee with a number of members clearly open to changing their minds and their votes depending on upcoming economic data. Some Big Tech/AI names recovered a little but the session was a low volume snooze-fest with the indexes barely moving.

Stocks exited 2025 with a whimper on Wednesday, slipping lower over the course of another lethargic session.

For the calendar year, the S&P 500 was up ~17%, its sixth year of 15%+ gains in the past seven and ended close to its all-time record high. The NASDAQ was up ~20%, but international markets (developed and emerging combined) outperformed the US for the first time in years with an aggregated ~30% increase in 2025.

Peru was the world’s best-performing stock market in dollar terms through late December 2025 (+88%) and the worst was Saudi Arabia (-7%).

The US (as represented by the S&P 500) finished in 39th place out of the 51 countries and regions studied in terms of stock market performance.

The new trading year kicked off on Friday with international stocks off to the races again but US equities slumbered through another dreary low-volume session. A renewed bout of TACO broke out with a number of selected tariffs getting delayed or diluted, something we can expect to see more of in a mid-term election year. The US indexes closed the day mixed and down for the week.

Wall Street is unanimously bullish on the year ahead, despite the fact that historical data shows generally less-than-impressive average returns in the year following previous strong three-year runs like the one we have just experienced, which has generated an ~84% return so far in the S&P 500 since the October 2022 bottom.

In last week’s report I referenced two of the pillars upon which the rally has been primarily built; a high level of AI enthusiasm and a strong expectation of imminent multiple Fed Funds Rate cuts - both of which could possibly be on the wane as we enter 2026.

There are two other major pillars; stable economic and earnings growth and tariff clarity.

Stable economic growth did a lot of the heavy lifting in 2025 as Wall Street was constantly surprised by how under control inflation appeared to be, how orderly the decline in the labor market has been and how well particularly high-end consumer spending held up, bolstering corporate earnings.

This could all change if the unemployment rate moves sustainably above 5% (currently 4.6%), inflation (currently 2.8%) shifts to the mid-3% range or higher and/or top-earning consumers start pulling back on spending.

A major component of tariff clarity will come any day now when the Supreme Court finally rules on the legality of the emergency powers-contingent IEEPA tariffs, the type used for most of the levy impositions so far. Should the court strike them down, there could be chaos as US companies seek refunds/credits on what they have already paid and the administration will be forced to pivot to other tariff types like Section 232 or Section 301.

2026 also promises a revamped Federal Reserve led by a spineless Trump yes-man, a probably nasty midterm election campaign likely to result in a divided Congress, continued geopolitical volatility, upside and downside economic data surprises, new themes and paradigms and a whole collection of bombshells that we cannot even conceive of yet.

I’ll do my best to keep you updated and informed each week as these all play out.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“Some might argue that [an investment’s performance relative to the broad market] is all that matters, but I disagree.”

Ritholtz’s Nick Maggiulli on why beta > alpha and mathematical proof that indexing works better than than trying to find market-beating stocks.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Choice can be a tax, not a benefit. Consumers don’t want more choices; they want more confidence in the choices presented.”

Scott Galloway

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) ⬆︎ 3.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Consumer Cyclical (two biggest holdings: Amazon, Tesla) ⬇︎ 3.0% for the week

• SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 1.0% last week and ended the week 1.2% below its all-time record closing high (12/24/2025).

• IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 1.1% last week and ended the week 3.7% below its all-time record closing high (12/10/2025).

• VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.9% last week and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

INTEREST RATES:

• FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

• PRIME RATE ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

• 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.65% (3.64% a week ago)

• 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.47% (3.46% a week ago)

• 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.74% (3.68% a week ago)

• 10 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.19% (4.14% a week ago)*

• 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.81% (4.76% a week ago)

• 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.86% (4.81% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

* Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.*

** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans*

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

• ⬇︎ 6.15%

One week ago: 6.18%, one month ago: 6.20%, one year ago: 6.91%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on January 28th?

• Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 83% probability (82% a week ago)

• 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 17% probability (18% a week ago)

With eight rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

• ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

• ⬇︎ 59%

One week ago: 60%, one month ago: 58%, one year ago: 55%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-used technical measure of market breadth is considered to be a very robust indicator of the overall health of the S&P 500 index.

A high percentage (above 70%) generally suggests broad market strength and a bullish trend, while a low percentage (below 30%) may indicate market weakness and a bearish trend.

FEAR & GREED INDEX:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett.

Data courtesy of CNN Business as of Friday’s market close

The Fear & Greed Index from CNN Business can be used as an attempt to gauge whether or not stocks are fairly priced and to determine the mood of the market. It is a compilation of seven of the most important indicators that measure different aspects of stock market behavior. They are: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call option ratio, junk bond demand, market volatility and safe haven demand.

Extreme Fear readings can lead to potential opportunities as investors may have driven prices “too low” from a possibly excessive risk-off negative sentiment.

Extreme Greed readings can be associated with possibly too-frothy prices and a sense of “FOMO” with investors chasing rallies in an excessively risk-on environment . This overcrowded positioning leaves the market potentially vulnerable to a sharp downward reversal at some point.

A “sweet spot” is considered to be in the lower-to-mid “Greed” zone.

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