Above Avalon: Recent Episodes
Neil Cybart
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. The updates, which have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple, provide timely analysis of news impacting Apple and its competitors. Neil also publishes exclusive reports on Apple business, product, and financial strategy. The daily updates and reports are available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes:
Apple Is in a League of Its Own
iPhone new users: 60 million per year (a five-year high)
Apple Watch new users: 30 million per year (an all-time high)
iPad new users: 30 million per year (an eight-year high)
Mac new users: 15 million per year (an all-time high)
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RSS Feed (can be used to add the podcast to your favorite podcast reader)
Apple Podcasts
The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (189 episodes) is available here.
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon
The Above Avalon Podcast
Above Avalon Daily Updates
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes / Links:
Apple’s Extremely Quiet Year for M&A
Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts
Overcast
RSS (for your favorite podcast player)
The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (188 episodes) is available here.
Follow on Twitter:
Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon
The Above Avalon Podcast
Above Avalon Daily Updates
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes / Links:
The Apple Watch Series 7 Is Great (Above Avalon Article)
The Number of Apple Watches in the Wild, Apple Watch Adoption Estimates, Apple Watch Upgrading Trends (Above Avalon Daily Update)
More on Apple Watch Series 7, Apple Watch vs. iPhone Sales, Apple Watch Installed Base Mix by Model (Above Avalon Daily Update)
Above Avalon Daily Updates (story headlines and summaries for 1,200+ updates)
Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts
Overcast
RSS (for your favorite podcast player)
The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (187 episodes) is available here.
Follow on Twitter:
Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon
The Above Avalon Podcast
Above Avalon Daily Updates
Show Notes / Links:
Hands-on with the iPhone 13 Pro
HANDS-ON with the iPhone 13 Pro (Unboxing and initial impressions) - YouTube
The iPhone 13 Test, The Driver Behind iPhone Momentum, Early Thoughts on iPhone 13 Sales
Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts
Overcast
RSS (for your favorite podcast player)
The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (186 episodes) is available here.
Follow on Twitter:
Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon
The Above Avalon Podcast
Above Avalon Daily Updates
Show Notes / Links:
Apple’s Big Bet on Memoji
More on Memoji and Apple Mixed Reality, Facebook Earnings, The Problem With Zuckerberg’s Metaverse
WWDC 2021 Review
Apple Acquires NextVR, Apple Glasses in 2022?, A Wearables Platform for the Face
Apple Acquires Spaces
Become an Above Avalon Member
Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts
Overcast
RSS (for your favorite podcast player)
The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (185 episodes) is available here.
Follow on Twitter:
Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon
The Above Avalon Podcast
Above Avalon Daily Updates
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes / Links:
Apple’s Missed Opportunity at WWDC
WWDC 2021 Review
More on Apple’s Missed Opportunity at WWDC, My Ideas on Apple Watch Strategy Changes, Rethinking Apps on the Wrist
Above Avalon Membership
Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts
Overcast
RSS (for your favorite podcast player)
The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (184 episodes) is available here.
Follow on Twitter:
Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon
The Above Avalon Podcast
Above Avalon Daily Updates
Six years after releasing the Apple Watch, it’s still not clear who is going to represent genuine competition for Apple in the wearables space. In episode 183, Neil discusses the series of events have come together to give Apple a wearables lead of not just a few years but more like a decade. Additional topics include Apple wearables sales (unit sales and revenue) and the three components of Apple’s wearables lead. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Apple is quietly and gradually showing us that the phase “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China” will evolve. In episode 182, Neil goes over the changes taking place within Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing apparatus. The discussion includes a breakdown of where Apple products are manufactured and the relationship between Apple and its contract manufacturers. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
When asked to identify Apple’s crown jewel, most will point to the iPhone or iPad. Apple’s retail operations probably wouldn’t be too high on many people’s lists. This is a mistake. In episode 181, Neil discusses Apple’s retail operations with a focus on where Apple Retail is headed and what changes are needed. Discussion topics include the three distinct phases that Apple Retail has experienced, the roles that Apple stores need to play going forward, and the three big bets that Apple is placing with its stores. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
According to my estimate, 100 million people now wear an Apple Watch. This means that approximately 10% of iPhone users wear an Apple Watch. In episode 180, Neil discusses these installed base and adoption figures as part of a larger discussion regarding Apple Watch’s sales momentum, growth potential, and roles in Apple’s ecosystem. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
After years of criticism, doubt, and questions surrounding Apple’s share buyback program, we are at a point where we can say with confidence that the buyback debate has ended and Apple was declared the winner. In episode 179, Neil goes over how the buyback debate began and why so many people underestimated Apple’s ability to both buy back shares and invest in its future at the same time. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Episode 178 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s 2020 and where the company finds itself as we enter 2021. The episode goes over the first Above Avalon year in review that was published for 2020. Neil discusses his five favorite Above Avalon weekly articles from 2020 and the sub themes that were found in the 196 daily updates published in 2020. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
While the pandemic is pushing people to embrace larger displays like iPads and Macs, the momentum found with smaller displays is still flying under the radar. In episode 177, Neil discusses how analysis of Apple device display size popularity can be used to gain insight into Apple’s ecosystem and quest to make technology more personal. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
The Mac is seeing momentum by being true to itself instead of trying to be something that it’s not. With a transition to Apple Silicon, the product category is now benefiting from lessons Apple learned from more popular devices aimed at the mass market. As the Above Avalon podcast enters its seventh season, episode 176 is dedicated to discussing the Mac’s Apple Silicon and what may come next for the Mac. Additional topics include the Apple Silicon transition being akin to a graduation for the Mac, the Apple Innovation Feedback Loop, and overlap between the iPad Pro and Mac portables.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
According to Neil’s estimate, Apple surpassed the billion iPhone users milestone last month. With the iPhone upgrade cycle approaching a plateau of four to five years, Apple is well-positioned to report record iPhone unit sales. In episode 175, Neil discusses the current state of the iPhone business as it surpasses a billion users. Topic include: iPhone unit sales, iPhone sales mix broken out by iPhone upgrades and new users, the iPhone installed base, Apple’s top priorities for iPhone, peak iPhone, and more.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
While the tech press spent years infatuated with stationary smart speakers and the idea of voice-only interfaces, it was the Apple Watch and utility on the wrist that ushered in a new paradigm shift in computing. In episode 174, Neil discusses how Apple Watch momentum is building. The product category resembles a runaway train as no company is in a position to slow it down. Additional topics include the stationary smart speaker mirage, Neil’s Apple Watch installed base estimates, how Apple Watch derives its momentum, and Apple’s health platform.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
As Apple pulls away from the competition, the App Store is considered the best (and last) chance for competitors to reshape the mobile industry to their liking. In episode 173, Neil examines how competitors are waging a guerrilla war against Apple and the App Store. The discussion then turns to Neil unveiling a new podcast called Above Avalon Daily.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple’s underlying ecosystem strength has been gaining momentum for years - it’s just been masked by people holding on to their iPhones for longer before upgrading. In episode 172, Neil quantifies how much Apple’s ecosystem is growing. Additional topics include the problem found with using overall revenue trends to analyze Apple growth, the Apple Services myth, and why non-iPhone revenue growth matters so much.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple’s ecosystem ends up being about more than just a collection of devices or services. Apple has been quietly building something much larger, and it’s still flying under the radar. In episode 171, Neil examines what Apple’s ecosystem derives its power from and why loyalty and satisfaction rates increase as customers move deeper in the Apple ecosystem. Additional topics include The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products, Apple as a design company, how non-Apple hardware can serve as a Trojan horse for Apple, and how Apple’s ecosystem can evolve.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 170, Neil examines how Apple is pulling away from the competition to a degree that we haven’t ever seen before. Given how we are just now entering the wearables era, implications of this shift will be measured in the coming decades, not years. Additional topics include WWDC 2020, Apple’s revised product strategy, the competitive landscape, and Apple’s lead in wearables.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Financial market commentators have been stumped by the stock market’s resiliency during the pandemic. Maybe they shouldn't be so surprised. In episode 169, Neil examines the question of whether or not Wall Street tried to predict the pandemic’s turn without actually knowing what such a turn would look like. Additional topics include two truths when it comes to how Wall Street functions, the various predictions for Apple, lessons found with Wall Street’s nature of predicting turns, and how predicting turns ends up being about predicting when calmness will enter and leave the market.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
This past week marked the fifth anniversary of Neil launching Above Avalon membership. Above Avalon continues to thrive with a sustainable business model based solely on paid memberships. In episode 168, Neil gives a behind-the-scenes look at Above Avalon’s business model. Additional topics include: Above Avalon’s history, Neil’s “secrets” to success, and his largest challenges found with a paid membership model.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Share buyback is one of a handful of tools that boards and management teams have to properly manage balance sheets. However, economic fallout related to the pandemic has led to a new round of criticism aimed at buyback. In episode 167, Neil discusses how Apple has become the poster child of responsible share repurchases. Additional topics include: Apple’s recent stock buyback activity, Neil’s expectation for Apple’s upcoming update to its buyback program, the latest criticism surrounding buyback, repurchasing shares in a pandemic, and the harsh reality found with stock buybacks.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple and its peers find themselves in the most difficult operating environment they have ever faced. In episode 166, Neil discusses Apple’s strategy for navigating the coronavirus pandemic. Additional topics include the various challenges Apple is currently facing, Apple’s toolmaking mission, how society doesn’t stop during a pandemic, and why strong brands get stronger during difficult times.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary las month to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations. In episode 165, Neil discusses his perspective on the iPad’s first decade and why we shouldn’t feel bad for the iPad. Additional topics include a different way of looking at the iPad unveiling in 2010, how the iPad foreshadowed iPhone success, how Apple pivoted the iPad, the iPad’s primary problem today, and how the iPad’s value is found in letting the product be itself.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
We are entering a new chapter in music streaming. In episode 164, Neil discusses how Spotify’s attempt to evolve from a dedicated music streaming service to an audio company ends up reflecting broader changes in the music streaming space. Additional topics include Spotify earnings, the music streaming war between Spotify and Apple Music, the problem with Spotify’s current business, roadblocks / advantages facing Spotify as it evolves into a different kind of company, and why Apple shouldn’t ignore Spotify’s evolution. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In addition to being a sales success, the Apple Watch has ushered in a paradigm shift in computing. In episode 163, Neil discusses how the Apple Watch is fundamentally changing the way we use technology. Additional topics include paradigm shifts, Apple Watch sales, Apple’s new Apple Watch Connected initiative, stationary smart speakers as extensions of existing products, and Neil’s new framework for recognizing paradigm shifts in computing. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
At the start of a new year, there is less value found in coming up with predictions than there is in looking at questions facing the company. In episode 162, Neil goes over his list of questions for Apple in 2020, and the discussion culminates with one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity. Additional topics include why predictions contain so little value, the number of Apple users, and Apple in emerging markets. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Something has clearly changed when it comes to the way Wall Street is treating AAPL. For the first time with Tim Cook as CEO, Apple shares are trading at a premium to the overall market. In episode 161, Neil discusses how changing behavior as it relates to passive versus active investing may be creating a type of perfect storm for AAPL shares. Additional discussion topics include Apple’s valuation, free cash flow, momentum shifting to passive investing, and Warren Buffett. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple’s ability to grab monopoly-like share of industry profits isn’t a result of there being an Apple Tax. Rather, it's a byproduct of Apple following a design-led product strategy that ultimately marginalizes industries. In episode 160, Neil discusses the theory behind the “Apple Tax,” Apple’s pricing strategy, and why the days of there being an Apple Tax ended years ago. Additional topics include Apple gross margin trends, two major implications associated with Apple’s pricing strategy, and a few narrative violations found with Apple’s revenue and gross profit optimization playbook. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple is turning AirPods into a platform for what comes after the App Store. AirPods will augment our environment by pushing intelligent sound. In the first episode of Season 6, Neil goes over how AirPods have evolved from an iPhone accessory into the early stages of a platform well positioned to reshape the current app paradigm for the wearables era. Additional topics include the AirPods Pro launch, AirPods Pro initial impressions, AirPods sales, examples of AirPods as a platform, and the three sources from which AirPods will derive its platform power. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
How did Fitbit go from being considered the wearables leader to viewing a $2.1B acquisition as its best hope for shareholders to recoup any value? What led Fitbit to run out of options as an independent company? In episode 158, Neil discusses how Apple Watch forced Fitbit to sell itself. Additional topics include Google’s acquisition offer for Fitbit, how Apple Watch redefined the wrist wearables industry, and the most damning evidence of Fitbit’s demise. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple finds itself amidst another controversy regarding removing HKmap.live from the App Store in Hong Kong. However, Apple is facing a different kind of backlash this time. Episode 157 is dedicated to discussing Neil’s thoughts on Apple doing business in China. Additional topics include Tim Cook’s engagement philosophy, Apple’s tool-making mission, and kowtowing to governments. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Content distribution has been a major theme for Apple in 2019. In episode 156, Neil goes over how Apple’s revised content distribution arm is structured. Neil also goes over his estimates for how much revenue and gross profit Apple’s content distribution arm can generate by FY2022. Additional discussion topics include the difference between Apple’s paid content bundles and content platforms, Neil’s initial estimates for the number of subscribers Apple will be able to grab for Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, and Apple News+, and why Apple’s new paid bundles will likely have lower profits than the App Store. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple keynotes remain some of the most valuable marketing events in today’s media landscape. Episode 155 is dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts on the Apple keynote. Discussion topics include the odd criticism facing Apple keynotes, the three primary benefits Apple derives from them, how the Apple keynote has evolved, and areas in which Apple can improve the keynote. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Naming iPhones is more art than science. In episode 154, Neil shares his thoughts on Apple’s iPhone naming strategy. The episode includes an oral history of iPhone nomenclature followed by a discussion of where Apple can bring iPhone naming in the future. Neil also goes over why the art of naming iPhones even matters when looking at the big picture. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 153, Neil discusses the strategy behind Apple TV+. Additional topics include the Apple TV app, five fundamental issues plaguing the paid video streaming market, Netflix’s business model, and what success in paid video streaming looks like for Apple. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple is the undisputed leader in wearables, and they are pulling away from the competition. In Episode 152, Neil discusses how Apple’s wearables business can be thought of a train gaining momentum. Competitors face declining odds of being able to stop the train. Additional topics include Apple’s wearables performance in 3Q19, wearables as a percent of overall Apple gadget unit sales, Apple wearables revenue, the factors behind Apple’s wearables success, and why wearables represent a paradigm shift in computing.
A different kind of Above Avalon podcast episode - dedicated to discussing why earnings are so intriguing to Neil. After going over the two ways to utilize quarterly earnings, Neil goes over some of his expectations for Apple’s 3Q19 and how Apple is currently facing a financial tug-of-war. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The recent Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news has been met with mixed reactions. In episode 150, we discuss why the leadership changes neither signify a company moving away from design or hardware nor suggest that management is facing some kind of growth crisis. Upon closer examination, the Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news are byproducts of Apple evolving into a much larger design company. Additional topics include the various growth narratives facing Apple, the growing Apple installed base, and the Apple machine. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Despite there being no discernible change to the grand vision behind Apple’s product development, there does appear to be a noteworthy change in strategy. Episode 149 is dedicated to discussing how Apple’s product strategy has changed from a pull system to a push system. Additional topics include product-related implications raised by Apple’s revised strategy, the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products, and why I’m hesitant about some aspects of the change. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple has reached a level of ecosystem strength that still hasn’t been fully digested by the marketplace. In episode 148, we discuss Apple’s ecosystem ahead of the company’s developers conference. Additional topics include how I estimated the total number of Apple users, various revenue per user figures for different parts of Apple’s user base, the difference between Apple in 2019 and the 1990s, and how wearables represent one of Apple’s key growth opportunities. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 147, we take a look at the changing competitive landscape facing the giants (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft). Comparing the situation to bumper cars, we discuss why Google and Facebook have the slower cars that are no longer able to hide within the traffic. Additional topics include deep dives into three competitive battles in particular: Apple vs. Google, Apple vs. Facebook, and Amazon vs. Facebook vs. Google. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In what has become an annual trend, Apple uses FY2Q earnings to also update its share buyback authorization and quarterly cash dividend. In episode 146, we preview the changes Apple will likely announce to its capital return program. The discussion begins by going over how Apple has adjusted its buyback pace following U.S. tax reform and why the company will eventually have to cut back on buyback. We then go over my expectations for what Apple’s board will approve in terms of increases to the buyback authorization and quarterly cash dividend. Additional topics include the debate surrounding Apple capital return and why the company has so few viable options for spending excess cash. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
At Apple’s recent event at Steve Jobs Theater, the company unveiled its revamped content distribution arm. Episode 145 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s new content distribution services: Apple News+, Apple Arcade, and Apple TV+. Instead of just announcing services for consuming more content, Apple unveiled a strategy for curating content for its user base of a billion people, something that I am calling “Curation for Casual.” The discussion also goes over how curation explains Apple’s move into original content. Additional topics include a few surprises unveiled at Apple’s Services event, the history behind Apple’s video distribution strategy, the changing content consumption landscape, and Apple’s content distribution arm eventually being considered a core technology powering Apple devices. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In recent years, the iPad line has undergone transformational changes. In episode 144, we look at Apple’s broader iPad strategy to add context to the newest updates involving the iPad mini and iPad Air. The episode kicks off with my thoughts on the new devices. The discussion then turns to the three sales phases that have come to define the iPad business over the years. Additional topics include Peak iPad mini, how Apple is following an iPhone / Mac hybrid approach when it comes to iPad updates, whether the iPad line is too complex or complicated, and observations on the current iPad line. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
For the first time in 16 years, Apple expects its capital expenditures (capex) to decline during the current fiscal year. Episode 143 is dedicated to discussing capex and how the financial metric provides a different look at how Apple is unique in comparison to its largest peers. Additional topics include defining capex, the theories behind Apple’s declining capex, the dramatic capex shift occurring among the Wall Street giants, and how capex shines light on a company’s cash-generating machine. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In one word, the smart home has been disappointing. Episode 142 is focused on why the way we think about digital homes is in need of a major reset. After going over my thoughts on the current state of the smart home, we take a closer look at Apple’s vision for the home and why the company is likely looking to revamp its broader home strategy. Additional topics include how Amazon and Google have used voice to hijack the smart home in order to push alternative visions and Apple hiring Sam Jadallah to lead its various home initiatives. We also discuss how Apple can revamp its home strategy and why the smart home path is going to be bumpy going forward. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
There’s a remarkable story found with AirPods. Nearly two years after launch, AirPods began to go viral at the end of November 2018. In December, search interest was up 500%. This is unprecedented for an Apple product. In episode 141, we take a deep dive into the AirPods phenomenon and how the product became part of culture. Additional topics include AirPods unit sales, the size of the AirPods user base, the keys to success in wearables, and thinking of wearables as battles for real estate on our wrists, ears, eyes, and body. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Some of Apple’s recent decisions regarding content distribution have sparked a debate. Is Apple embracing a new kind of strategy that elevates services at the expense of hardware? Episode 140 is dedicated to going over Apple’s content distribution strategy and how the company is looking to leverage its user base in an effort to establish one of the more formidable content distribution arms in existence. Additional topics include Apple’s history as a content distributor, how streaming is changing content consumption, misconceptions surrounding Apple’s content distribution strategy, the sudden collapse in stationary speaker buzz, Apple’s goals for its content distribution arm, and the various challenges facing the company.
January is a great time to embrace the unknown rather than come up with predictions for the next 12 months. Episode 139 is dedicated to going over my fifth installment of Apple questions as the new year kicks off. We discuss 56 questions facing Apple in 2019. Topics include everything from big picture themes to detailed questions about Apple’s product strategy. Additional topics include Apple’s financial picture, management changes, emerging markets headwinds, R&D, and capital expenditures.
There will come a time when the iPhone business is in big trouble. However, that day has not arrived quite yet. Episode 138 is focused on how the sheer level of pessimism facing iPhone hit an inflection point in 2018. Things have simply become too negative. The discussion begins with the iPhone’s impact on Apple financials. We then dissect iPhone hysteria to see how pessimism has changed and centered on a new type of narrative. Additional topics include demand for $999+ iPhones, the gray market, genuine risks and concerns facing iPhone, how the iPhone business is changing, and why wearables have to be part of the iPhone discussion. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Given the magnitude of its buyback program, excess cash position, and free cash flow generation, no other public company is in as good of a position as Apple to benefit from stock market turmoil. Episode 137 is focused on how Apple can leverage its buyback program to take advantage of stock market dislocations. The discussion begins with my thoughts on the recent weakness in AAPL shares. We then look back at previous AAPL stock downturns to find a few similarities and takeaways. The discussion turns to Apple’s share buyback and the impact a change in stock price has on Apple’s buyback activity. Additional topics include Apple buyback scenarios, valuation, and the irrationality found in comparing a company’s stock price to its underlying health. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The most surprising part of Apple’s 4Q18 results wasn’t found with the numbers or even guidance. Instead, by announcing unit sales data would no longer be provided starting in 1Q19, management dropped a bomb on Wall Street. Episode 136 is focused on discussing Apple’s decision to move beyond unit sales. We go over how unit sales became a crutch for financial analysts. The discussion then turns to management’s new blueprint for how it wants Wall Street to judge Apple. Additional topics include Apple revenue and gross margins trends, Wall Street narratives, and Apple as a tool marker. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 135, we look at how the gray market for refurbished and previously-owned iPhones is impacting Apple’s iPhone pricing strategy. The discussion begins with a closer look at iPhone ASP (average selling price) trends and my thoughts on how the gray market is impacting iPhone ASP. We then go over the three key ingredients needed to sustain a functioning gray market for iPhone. Additional topics include: iPhone durability, the iPhone Upgrade Program, iPhone residual values and depreciation, and future iPhone ASP trends. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The Netflix machine seems unstoppable. Strong paid subscriber growth and rising content budgets have given Netflix a commanding lead in the paid video streaming market. However, change is in the air. Episode 134 is dedicated to discussing Netflix’s business model and why calls suggesting Netflix has won the paid video streaming war are grossly premature. Additional topics include Netflix’s keys to success, upcoming paid video streaming competitors, lessons from the music streaming industry, and things to watch out for in paid video streaming over the coming years. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Last week, Apple Watch was the star of Apple’s second major product event at Steve Jobs Theater. Episode 133 is focused on looking at the big picture following Apple’s event. The discussion begins by going over Tim Cook’s comments regarding Apple’s mission statement and then quickly puts the iPhone and Apple Watch updates into context. We then turn to my Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products. Additional topics include my user base estimates for Apple’s various product categories, my rationale for why Apple Watch and Apple Glasses will one day have a larger user base than iPhone will, and the power associated with new form factors that are capable of handling new tasks. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 132, we take a closer look at Apple's Project Titan. The discussion begins by going over the signs pointing to Apple expanding Titan initiatives in recent months. We then turn to Apple's goal with Titan and the automobile's changing value proposition. Tesla enters the discussion as we look at why the company isn't a realistic acquisition target for Apple. Additional topics include Tesla's struggles, poaching, Doug Field's move from Tesla to Titan, and the most interesting things to watch for in the auto space. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple's latest growth story is driven by three drivers: iPhone, Services, and Wearables. In episode 131, we discuss these three growth drivers to see how they are not created equal. After going over the factors fueling Apple's growth drivers, we spend time discussing how Apple's growth story may change in the near term. The episode concludes with a big picture overview of why Apple's long-term growth story won't just be about Services. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 130 is dedicated to discussing how Apple has become comfortable in accepting, and even embracing, the awkwardness that exists between the iPad and Mac. The discussion begins with a closer look at the fascinating juxtaposition between Apple's recent Mac campaign and its iPad ads from earlier this year. We go over what the ads tell us about Apple's thought process regarding the iPad and Mac. Things then turn to how the iPad vs. Mac juxtaposition hasn't been static over the years. After briefly recapping the post-PC era debate, the episode concludes with my thoughts on where Apple will bring the iPad and Mac platforms and why the company faces a large screen paradox. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
A select group of corporate giants have been gaining influence and investor dollars on Wall Street. Episode 129 is dedicated to discussing today's corporate giants (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Facebook) including the key differences and similarities between the five. The second half of the episode goes over why I think odds are good that today's giants won't be tomorrow's giants. The episode concludes with a closer look at Apple's quest to do the seemingly impossible - remain relevant. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
One of the major takeaways from this year's WWDC keynote was found with something not announced on stage. Apple finds itself announcing new technologies that make more sense on form factors that don't yet exist. Episode 128 includes a discussion of this year's WWDC, which demonstrated how Apple is figuring out what comes next. After quickly recapping the major WWDC 2018 announcements, Neil discusses how Apple is setting the stage for smart glasses. The second half of the episode goes over Apple's motivation for looking beyond current success to figure out what's next. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon subscriber and receiving exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Last week, Neil celebrated the third anniversary of launching Above Avalon subscriptions. Episode 127 provides a behind-the-scenes look at Above Avalon and includes a discussion of Neil's business model and the broader paid subscription industry. Neil then goes over some of the highlights and challenges from the first three years of Above Avalon subscriptions. The episode concludes with a closer look at Above Avalon's place in the Apple blogosphere and the major changes that have unfolded in the space. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple's services business is remarkably strong yet surprisingly mysterious. A closer look at Apple Services reveals an apparatus, which can easily qualify as a Fortune 100 company, that isn't what it seems from the outside. In episode 126, Neil puts together a few pieces of the Apple Services puzzle. After going over the five categories that comprise Apple Services, Neil goes over his financial estimates for each category. This leads to an overview of Apple's Services strategy and a look ahead at where Services growth will likely originate. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In this special edition episode of the Above Avalon podcast, Neil goes over Apple's 2Q18 earnings. The discussion is dedicated to analyzing iPhone results. Along with going over his iPhone X sales estimates, Neil discusses the latest iPhone ASP and iPhone channel inventory adjustment trends. The episode concludes with Neil's theory as to why iPhone supply chain rumors have been off when it comes to iPhone X. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In Episode 124, Neil discusses how Apple's capital allocation goals will require the company to double the pace of share buyback from current levels. The episode begins by going over the various updates Apple has pushed through to its share buyback and cash dividends. Attention then turns to Apple's excess cash position, which plays a key role in any discussion involving capital return. The episode concludes with Neil going over one possible path Apple can follow to reach an optimal capital strategy in a timely manner. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 123 takes a closer look at Apple's capital allocation story on Wall Street. After discussing why narratives are so important on Wall Street, Neil goes over the core tenets of a capital allocation story and how the narrative does a good job of describing Apple's design-led culture. Neil then goes over a number of implications found with Apple possessing a capital allocation narrative on Wall Street. The episode concludes with a discussion regarding Apple's valuation trends relative to the market. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
After a brief lull, Apple's R&D expenditures are once again exploding higher. In Episode 122, Neil analyzes the latest Apple R&D trends. After discussing three drivers for R&D growth, Neil goes over the two new products likely responsible for the recent surge in R&D expenditures. The episode concludes with Neil's grand theory on Apple R&D. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In Episode 121, Neil discusses Apple's strategy for controlling sound in our lives. The discussion begins by going over Apple's motivation for controlling sound and the central role music plays in it. The episode then turns to the two parts of Apple's strategy: sound on the go and sound in the home. Neil goes over how iPod, iPhone, AirPods, and now HomePod, play a role in Apple's strategy for controlling sound. The episode concludes with a few reasons why Apple's sound in the home strategy appears to be much more precarious than its sound on the go plans. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 120 is focused on how Apple's dramatic change in strategy regarding larger iPhones was driven by the realization that iPad mini was the wrong bet. After discussing the early iPad years, Neil goes over the background behind how the iPad mini came to be. Neil then discusses how Apple found itself flat-footed with larger smartphone screens and how a different perspective toward smartphones and tablets ultimately led Apple to a stronger iPhone vision and strategy. The episode concludes with three lessons to be taken from the situation. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The unit sales growth era that had defined iPhone for years is over. Episode 119 is dedicated to discussing the iPhone's new era that can best be characterized as status quo. After discussing iPhone sales trends, Neil goes over six headwinds that have come together to create a much less friendly iPhone sales growth environment. The discussion turns to how the dynamic between the two main iPhone sales drivers show a more resilient business. Neil then goes over how key iPhone fundamentals will trend during the Goldilocks era. The episode concludes with a look at the risks and wildcards to the iPhone business. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Something is changing when it comes to the way people are thinking about Apple Watch. We are witnessing nothing short of a revolution with Apple Watch. In Episode 118, Neil discusses how Apple Watch has become a bridge between the present and future. The device holds the potential to become more disruptive to the current computing paradigm than even Apple may want to acknowledge. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
January is a great time to embrace the unknown found with a new year. Episode 117 is focused on going over my list of questions for Apple in 2018. We cover more than 60 questions on subjects that range from Apple's major product categories to various managerial and organizational topics. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 116 is dedicated to reviewing Apple's performance in 2017. After briefly discussing my methodology for grading Apple, we discuss the various milestones and issues that impacted the company in 2017. My grading process is broken into seven categories (iPad, Apple Watch, iPhone, Mac, Accessories, Services, Financial Strategy). The episode concludes with my overall grade for Apple in 2017 and a few closing thoughts on what turned out to be a very busy year for management. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple isn't a hardware company. Nevertheless, hardware's importance to Apple continues to grow. Episode 115 is dedicated to discussing Apple's growing bet on hardware. The episode begins by going over Apple's hardware strategy and includes a brief history of Apple's approach to hardware. The discussion then turns to Apple's hardware scale as we go over the company's overall product sales. We conclude with how Apple is doubling down on hardware in order to become the most powerful software provider in the wearables era. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The probability of a U.S. corporate tax overhaul has never been higher. Episode 114 is dedicated to discussing how upcoming changes to the U.S. corporate tax code will impact Apple. We begin by going over Apple's current cash dilemma. The discussion then turns to the two significant changes that will take place with Apple's cash and balance sheet strategy assuming the U.S. corporate tax code is overhauled. The rest of the episode is dedicated to talking about Apple's excess cash and the options to spend the excess cash that Apple faces. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
We are in the midst of a massive mindshare bubble involving stationary smart speakers in the home. Episode 113 is dedicated to discussing stationary smart speakers powered by digital voice assistants. After going over my Amazon Echo sales estimate, we look at why certain companies are placing big bets on stationary smart speakers and why there are already signs that the rosy and optimistic narrative facing the product category is off. The discussion then turns to the three distinct possibilities as to the stationary smart speaker's future. We end with how smart speakers ultimately end up competing with wearables. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The fourth season of the Above Avalon Podcast kicks off with a discussion focused on Apple Watch sales disclosure. We take a closer look at the debate surrounding disclosure to see how Apple now stands to benefit more from disclosing Apple Watch sales than from keeping them hidden. The discussion goes over the four major changes that have swung the disclosure debate in favor of Apple providing Apple Watch data. We look at one possible path that Apple can use going forward to disclose Apple Watch sales on a quarterly basis. The episode concludes with a broader look at financial disclosure at public companies and how Apple manages its financial disclosure strategy. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple was faced with a choice: Stick with the familiar and milk the iPhone business for all it’s worth, or throw familiarity out the window to pave a new iPhone journey for the next 10 years. Apple chose the latter, and iPhone X is the byproduct. Episode 111 is dedicated to discussing iPhone X. We begin by going over Apple's motivation behind iPhone X. The discussion then turns to my initial impressions and thoughts from using the device. We go over Apple's strategy regarding iPhone X reviews and conclude with Apple's ultimate goal with iPhone X. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple is a Silicon Valley and Wall Street leader with a bull's-eye on its back, and rightly so. Leaders should be held to a higher standard. Episode 110 is dedicated to discussing how Apple is being held not just to a higher standard, but rather to a double standard. We begin by going over what it means for Apple to face a double standard. The discussion then goes over examples of how companies not named Apple are being graded on a curve. After looking at how Apple's double standard impacts the company's Apple Watch and China narratives in the press, we go over my three theories for why a double standard is being applied to Apple. The episode concludes with a few solutions for removing this double standard. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple's product strategy has been receiving more attention lately as voice-first and AI-first become buzzwords in Silicon Valley. Episode 109 is dedicated to discussing the vision behind Apple's product strategy. We begin by analyzing Apple's current product strategy and how the company's four major product categories are connected to each other. The discussion then turns to Apple's shifting product priorities. This brings us to Apple's grand vision and how there is a role for design to play in entirely new industries. After discussing issues and roadblocks Apple has faced following its grand vision, we conclude with how HomePod marketing sheds light on Apple's inevitable product path. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The amount of risk Apple is taking with iPhone X should not be underestimated. Episode 108 takes a closer look at how Apple is displaying courage by not letting fear of change and customer rejection dictate iPhone design decisions. The discussion begins with my iPhone X impressions. We then go over how the iPhone X fits within Apple's overall iPhone strategy. We go over examples of how Apple has displayed courage with iPhone in the past and why design has such a large impact on iPhone's future. The episode concludes by comparing Apple's approach to design with Samsung's approach. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 107 is dedicated to discussing Steve Jobs Theater. We begin with my impressions from attending Apple's inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. The discussion then turns to how Steve Jobs Theater is an Apple product, and a closer look at the building uncovers a side to Apple that few have seen before. We go over additional items that stood out to me about the theater and Apple Park, including why the most crucial takeaway ends up being about Jony Ive. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple's largest product event in years is just a few days away. In episode 106, we look at the big picture ahead of the inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. We begin by going over the top three trends taking place in the smartphone market. The discussion then turns to the major themes in the wearables market, followed by TV, and then the home. The goal is to set the stage for Apple's upcoming product announcements. I will be attending Apple's inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. My full thoughts and observations on the event will be sent exclusively to Above Avalon members. To receive this analysis and perspective, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership. Members also receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails.
In episode 105, we focus on Apple's business in China in an effort to answer whether the country represents more of an opportunity or risk for Apple. The discussion begins by going over some of the numbers, including those that show Apple's volatile performance in China. We then look at the major trends unfolding in the smartphone market in China, which leads to a deep dive into the major issues impacting Apple in China. After going over the WeChat versus Apple debate, we discuss the various positive signs reappearing in Apple's Greater China operating segment. The episode concludes with a look at some strategy adjustments Apple can make in order to leverage the most opportunity from China. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 104 is dedicated to discussing how Apple's business model predisposes the company to cash generation unlike that of any other firm in Silicon Valley. The discussion begins by comparing Apple's financials to those of the leading consumer-facing technology companies. We then take a closer look at Apple's business model to see just how the company is able to generate so much free cash flow. The stationary speaker market is used as an example to demonstrate how Apple plans on making money differently than others in the space. We conclude by going over questions regarding Apple's cash machine in the future. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 103 marks the introduction of a brand new topic to the Above Avalon podcast: augmented reality glasses. All of the pieces are coming together for Apple to sell glasses. We begin the episode with the reason why now is the time to talk about Apple Glasses. The discussion then turns to the seven reasons why Apple Glasses are inevitable. This sets the scene for the big picture (a deep dive into glasses as a device, Apple's evolving thought process about glasses, and an overview of how Apple would actually sell AR glasses). Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Episode 102 has a financial tone as we discuss how Wall Street is thinking about Apple in a new way. After breaking up the last five years of Apple stock performance into four eras, we go over my theory on why Wall Street now looks at Apple's excess cash as the most influential factor impacting the stock. This means that the iPhone business is losing influence over the stock. We go over the four reasons why I think investors are now valuing Apple's future cash flows at a higher level. The episode concludes with three implications of Wall Street giving more attention to Apple's balance sheet, excess cash, and share repurchases. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
This week marks the tenth anniversary of Apple launching the iPhone. Episode 101 is focused on how ten years of iPhone sales changed Apple. After going over three sets of data that stand out when thinking about the iPhone, we take a closer look at three lessons Apple learned from iPhone (ambition, control, platform). The episode concludes with a discussion of how the iPhone's legacy is already beginning to appear. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The 100th episode of the Above Avalon podcast is dedicated to how WWDC contained clues hinting at the Mac's future. We begin by discussing how management's WWDC keynote marked a turning point in the awkward Mac stretch that has been unfolding over the past few years. We then compare the Mac portion of the keynote to the iPad portion in order to see the significant difference in tone and strategy. This difference ends up helping us map the Mac's direction. After going over some of the possible changes to the Mac line, we conclude the episode by talking about why this is unchartered territory for Apple. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
I am back from San Jose and WWDC. Episode 99 is focused on the most intriguing new product at this year's WWDC: HomePod. The discussion begins with an overview of the expectations heading into last week's HomePod unveiling. Apple's sales pitch for HomePod caught quite a few people by surprise. We then go over my impressions from listening to HomePod play various music genres. The episode then turns to HomePod's value around augmented hearing in the home and the broader strategy behind the product. After discussing HomePod pricing and a few challenges Apple faces with the product, we conclude by going over Apple's overall goal for the device. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
The iPhone's role in our life doesn't remain static, but rather it evolves. Episode 98 is focused on how the iPhone has evolved over the past 10 years. We cover the major implications this ongoing evolution will have on iPhone pricing, screen size preference, upgrade trends, and demand for other Apple products. The episode concludes with a discussion on the item responsible for breeding the evolutionary process found with iPhone. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 97, we discuss one of the major themes from Apple's 2Q17 earnings report. There were a number of interesting observations found in the "Other Products" line item. In particular, Apple wearables (Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats headphones) sold quite well. After going over the methodology I used to derive 2Q17 Apple Watch and AirPods unit sales, we discuss the best way to put Apple wearables sales into context. It turns out Apple wearables outsold iPhone over the first two years on the market. We also discuss why the wearables discussion should be about more than just Apple Watch and the impact a wearables platform will have on adoption trends. The episode concludes with some thoughts on Apple wearables sales over the upcoming year. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple continues to be misunderstood. Episode 96 is focused on how best to define Apple. The discussion begins with all of the labels used to describe Apple over the years. We then go over the major clues that help us define Apple, and this takes us to my thesis that Apple is a design company. We go over what design means and the difference between a design and tech company. The discussion concludes with a few examples of how Apple, as a design company, approaches core technologies. We use these examples to map where Apple is headed in the future. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 95, we discuss how the Mac business has become a headache for Apple management. We begin by going over Apple's recent private meeting with outside journalists to talk about the Mac product pipeline. We then assess Apple's success with Mac by comparing it to the rest of Apple's business. The discussion turns to Apple's Achilles' heel and why the tail end of Apple's product line is beginning to pose a challenge. Apple's decision to come up with a new Mac Pro, while likely the right move, raises a number of red flags. After looking at each red flag, we end with a big picture view of why the Mac will have trouble fitting within Apple's longer-term mission. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 94, we discuss how Apple is pulling out all the stops when it comes to selling iPad. We begin by going over the significant changes to iPad strategy unveiled last week. The discussion then turns to the reasoning behind the changes, which involves taking a closer look at iPad sales according to screen size. This brings us to how Apple's aggressive iPad actions are related to the company solving its Mac dilemma. The episode concludes with how Apple plans to return the iPad business to growth. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
As Apple pushes deeper into luxury brand territory, the company is making its products more accessible through lower pricing. Apple is underpricing AirPods and Apple Watch. In episode 93, we discuss Apple's evolving pricing strategy. We begin by looking at AirPods and Apple Watch pricing and why I think the products are underpriced. The discussion then turns to three possible theories on Apple's wearables pricing strategy. After analyzing each theory, we take a closer look at how Apple is using pricing to grow its user base. The episode concludes with a number of things to look for when it comes to future Apple products and how Apple is using lower pricing to redefine luxury. To receive additional Apple analysis throughout the week, become an Above Avalon member by visiting AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 92, we discuss the changing wearables market. There has been a sea change involving the top wearables companies. Apple has become the new wearables leader according to unit sales. After discussing the driving force behind Apple's move to the lead, we take a closer look at why it's time to begin thinking about wearables as platforms containing a number of products. The episode concludes with a look at how competition is changing in the wearables space. To become an Above Avalon member and access more Apple analysis, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Calls for Apple to buy Netflix are getting louder. In episode 91, we break apart the argument for why Apple should buy Netflix. By observing how Apple thinks about music streaming, we are in a better position to judge the approach Apple will likely take to video streaming. We also go over Apple's M&A philosophy to determine how Apple treats holes in its content strategy. The episode concludes with a big picture view as to why Apple doesn't need to own Netflix in order to accomplish its video content goals. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Apple management is buying back shares like there's no tomorrow. In episode 90, we discuss how a path has appeared where Apple management can realistically buy back 50% of AAPL's outstanding shares within three years. After first going over some basics concerning share buyback, we address a few myths that have been circulating about share repurchases. We then go over the steps Apple management would need to follow to repurchase 50% of its shares. The episode concludes with a big picture view of Wall Street's reaction to Apple and its buyback program. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
In episode 89, we take a deep dive into one of the major themes found in Apple's 1Q17 earnings report. Apple's reported iPad sales number was quite weak, leading some to make assumptions about the product's fundamentals. We go over the results, including all of the moving pieces behind the scenes. The discussion also includes a broader reflection on the iPad's seventh anniversary and its place within Apple's changing product line. The episode concludes with a look at whether or not 1Q17 results changed my overall view that the iPad business has already turned the corner and is continuing to stabilize. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Show Notes:
Above Avalon Episode 72: Let's Talk iPad
Steve Jobs Introduces Original Video
iPad Introduction Video
Apple 1Q17 Earnings Review: Major Themes
Apple 1Q17 Earnings Review: Details
Daily Updates for Above Avalon Members
More Information on Above Avalon Membership
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