Economics & Country Risk | An S&P Global Market Intelligence Postcast: Recent Episodes

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The prolongation of existing — and emergence of new — armed conflicts will likely remain a major source of geopolitical instability in the world economy, according to our strategic report on key themes for 2024. Following Iran’s recent strike on Israel, we pose the question: What could an escalation mean for the global economy? Featured expert: Ken Wattret, Vice-President, Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Companies are finding that supply chain disruption is not receding and the reliability of input, such as transportation is not returning to normal.

We see a need to invest in resilience projects that cut risk and improve profitability, such as reshoring. Reshoring, of course, has its challenges, including labor costs and availability and infrastructure. We discuss those challenges in this episode.

Featured experts from S&P Global Market Intelligence:

Aries Poon, Head of Asia-Pacific Insights and Analysis

Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America and Caribbean Economics,

Sam Parkin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Global demand continues to tread water, with the construction and manufacturing sectors facing headwinds from high interest rates. Suppliers are responding by controlling output, with sporadic idling and curtailed investment plans meaning less excess capacity in 2024 to absorb supply shocks. Along with logistics woes that cause higher rates and longer delivery times, risk is rising.

In this episode, our expert discusses logistics challenges and the outlook on shipping disruptions due to rerouting from the Red Sea.

Featured expert:

Keyla Martinez, senior economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Steel prices are weak, and that makes it a buyer's market.

What's fueling that weakness? How long will it last? Where is demand strongest?

Our expert provides insights into steel markets, including those for carbon steel and electrical steel, that will inform purchasing decisions now and into the future.

Featured expert:

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/anton-john.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Climate-related effects have been augmented by weather phenomena such as El Niño in certain geographies. This is impacting agricultural production while hampering policymakers’ ability to contain food prices. Countries such as India and Indonesia resorted to restricting exports of rice and palm oil in 2023 to prevent domestic civil unrest and inflation, chafing some trading partners. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea show the increased vulnerability of food supply chains to geopolitical events.

In part two of our two-part series on global food security, we will cover how higher food prices influence overall inflation, the impact of food security risks on jobs and the workforce, the potential for social unrest, and how governments are responding.

Featured experts:

Carlos Cardenas, head of Latin America Insights and Analysis https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cardenas-carlos.html

Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, principal economist, Asia Pacific Economics https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/luchnikava-schorsch-hanna.html

Ronel Oberholzer, head of sub-Saharan economics Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Climate-related effects have been augmented by weather phenomena such as El Niño in certain geographies. This is impacting agricultural production while hampering policymakers’ ability to contain food prices.

Countries such as India and Indonesia resorted to restricting exports of rice and palm oil in 2023 to prevent domestic civil unrest and inflation, chafing some trading partners. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea show the increased vulnerability of food supply chains to geopolitical events.

In part one of our two-part series on global food security, we will discuss the role of three key regions in the global food supply chain, the impact of the El Nino weather pattern, who benefits from higher food prices, and who will pay the costs.

Featured experts:

Carlos Cardenas, head of Latin America Insights and Analysis https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cardenas-carlos.html

Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, principal economist, Asia Pacific Economics https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/luchnikava-schorsch-hanna.html

Ronel Oberholzer, head of sub-Saharan economics Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In their first podcast of the year, our Purchasing Managers' Index team of economists provide insights on the impact of Red Sea shipping disruptions on supplier delivery times and where those effects are being felt the most. They also discuss the latest data on manufacturing and construction in the eurozone, through the prism of Greece and Italy.

The team also unveils our newest PMI dataset, on Romania's manufacturing sector.

Featured experts:

Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html Eleanor Dennison, Economist, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence Discover more PMI insights here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/pmi.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

If you’re a chocolate lover, you probably eat up headlines declaring how good it is for your health. You may also get alarmed by news stories of supply shortages or disruptions. But where does it come from and what route does it take to get to you? In this episode, our experts reveal who the biggest players are in the global cocoa trade. (Spoiler alert: Switzerland is not the biggest exporter of chocolate.) They also discuss the trade in finished chocolate products, marzipan and jellybeans and which countries have the biggest appetite for sweets. Featured experts: • Anna Rybicka, senior economist, trade forecasting • Agnieszka Maciejewska, economic associate director, trade forecasting Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade and investment. Countries will cooperate where objectives align, and areas of competition will likely increase. How faster-growing economies exercise their rising economic and geopolitical influence will be key.

An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcome of dozens of scheduled elections. In this episode, we look at five of these elections outside the US: India, South Africa, the European Union, the UK, and Mexico. We selected these polls because they touch on the economic fragility we see in the world, and, outside the US, are most likely to impact business.

Featured experts:

• Deepa Kumar, Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk • Laurence Allan, Head of European Insights and Analysis • Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip, Senior Analyst for Latin America • Lange Malimela, Head of Country Risk, sub-Saharan Africa

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In our first episode of 2024, we talked about our top 10 predictions for the global economy in the coming year. In this episode, we unveil our U.S. regional economic predictions for 2024, a year of uncertainty as Americans prepare for elections in November.

You’ll hear about our expectations for the unemployment rate, job growth, consumer price index inflation, real wage increases, domestic migration and housing affordability. We’ll also discuss where we expect to see the biggest changes and how US economy 2024 trends could influence voters at the ballot box. Which indicators will our experts be watching as they track these trends in the runup to the election?

Featured experts:

Karl Kuykendall, Associate Director, US Regional Economic Service, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kuykendall-karl.html

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/raines-john.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

One of our key themes for 2024 is logistics rewired. At the world's largest ocean container shipping event, TPM, shippers and their transportation providers will have plenty to talk about. Navigation restrictions on the Panama Canal, rerouting from the Red Sea to avoid attacks from Houthi militants, the persistent issue of overcapacity.

How is the shipping industry responding to these shocks and what impact could we see on trade and the global economy? Featured expert:

Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor, JOC, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/szakonyi-mark.html

Join us at #TPM24, March 3 - 6, where these issues will be discussed in depth. Learn more: https://ow.ly/ukhj50QB67B

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In this episode, our experts provide regional insights into construction markets around the globe. Learn more about what's impacting construction spending in North and South America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa.

This deeper dive into regional themes for 2024 follows our previous episode on the global outlook for contruction spending and illustrates the economic fault lines we see in this disjointed world.

Featured experts:

Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html

Amandeep Bahra, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/bahra-amandeep.html

Neo Sibiya, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Shing Tyan Lee, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/lee-shing-tyan.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In this episode, we share insights from our webinar on the global construction outlook for 2024. We discuss changes in our macroeconomic forecast that inform our outlook for construction spending and provide an overview of regional construction markets.

Featured expert:

Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will cut across the themes of economic fault lines and resource security with a discussion of labor market trends we're tracking in 2024. Learn more about what trends will persist in 2024, and which will change direction.

Featured experts:

Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/crowley-emily.html

Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malin-sophie.html

Sam Parkin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of supply chain resilience. Supply chain resilience is vital and costly amid significant uncertainties related to labor and policy implementation. Companies will weigh strategies such as inventory expansion, multi sourcing, and reshoring. Will companies be willing and able to pay for necessary investments in these strategies as corporate cash flows come under pressure?

Featured expert:

Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html

Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

We see five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of geopolitical reordering.

National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade, and investment. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcomes of more than 70 scheduled elections — half of which will be presidential elections. The outcomes will have major implications for policy direction and priorities.

Featured expert:

Laurence Allan, head of Europe Insights & Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/allan-laurence.html

Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will delve into the economic fault lines theme with a discussion of our top 10 economic predictions for 2024.

Learn more about where we see inflation rates going, how we expect central banks to respond, and where we are likely to see growth in the coming year.

Featured expert: Ken Wattret, Global economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html

Read our full 2024 themes report: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/Info/1123/2024-disjointed-world.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015

Read more about our top 10 economic predictions: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/top-10-economic-predictions-for-2024.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015

The global environment has still not settled onto a clear pathway toward a new stability. As we enter 2024 in this disjointed world, we confront risks posed by potential volatility across the economic and political spheres. We also see potential opportunities arising from the new reality of greatly segmented global relationships.

In this episode, we discuss five overlapping themes as key for 2024: economic fault lines, geopolitical reordering, supply chain resilience, logistics rewired, and resource security. All influence one another, and none will develop in isolation.

Featured experts:

Natznet Tesfay, head of Insights & Analysis, Global Intelligence & Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/tesfay-natznet.html

Ken Wattret, head of economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html

Laurence Allan, head of Europe Insights & Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/allan-laurence.html

Eric Johnson, senior technology editor, Journal of Commerce, S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/johnson-eric.html

Please note: We will be taking a break for the year-end holidays. There will be no episodes for Dec. 23 and 30. New episodes will resume on Jan. 6.

Financial conditions in the US have tightened significantly of late, with a rapid jump in yields on longer-term Treasury securities, a material rise in the dollar, slowing in bank lending and continued weakness in equities. This argues for a slowing in growth of demand and GDP in coming quarters.

In this episode of the Economics & Country Risk podcast, a member of our US economics team discusses the sharp fluctuations in interest rates over the last month or two.

What’s behind the backup in long-term yields, and what does it imply for Fed policy?

Featured expert:

Michael Konidaris, associate director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/konidaris-michael.html

Please note: We will be taking a break for the year-end holidays. There will be no episodes for Dec. 23 and 30. New episodes will resume on Jan. 6.

Deceptive shipping practices began to emerge as a topic of interest in 2020, following guidance from the US Treasury Department. Subterfuge shipping has always been an issue. But this proverbial game of cat and mouse has continued to escalate in terms of the complexity of tactics used to circumvent these regulations, as well as the industry tools used to identify and combat them. How are the tactics used in subterfuge shipping activities evolving? And what risks do they pose for businesses and financial institutions? Featured expert: Jeremy Domballe, subject matter expert in our Maritime, Trade and Supply Chain group https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/domballe-jeremy.html Read the Maritime State of Play Report: Deceptive shipping practices — Emerging company trends: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/maritime-state-of-play-report-deceptive-shipping-practices.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015 Read the Maritime State of Play Report: Evolution of deceptive shipping practices — Disabling/manipulating AIS: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/maritime-state-of-play-report-evolution-of-deceptive-shipping.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015

Droughts and flood events in recent years have highlighted the importance of water as a strategic global resource. Climate change will impact access to water and force many countries to modify how they manage resources, according to a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The prevalence of severe difficulties to predict weather patterns is likely to continue across the globe affecting populations, countries’ economic performances and key industries that rely on water as an essential resource. The El Niño climate pattern is forecast to significantly impact the world in 2024. Water-related stress, however, will be an issue for many years to come in many parts of the world.

How will governments and businesses respond to water stress? And which industries are most likely to be affected?

Access the 2024 Big Picture report here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/the-big-picture-industry-outlook

Featured S&P Global Market Intelligence experts:

Veronica Retamales Burford, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk

Will Farmer, Senior Research Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk

Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Our Purchasing Managers' Index team discusses key 2023 themes through the lens of economies in the Americas. The economists see quite a subdued picture in Canada from their latest survey results. Firms are concerned about high interest rates and how they may squeeze clients' budgets. The newly launched PMI for the Canadian service sector, which covers private sector services accounting for about half of the country's GDP, offers additional insights into business activity, new orders, employment and more. In the US, sentiment has picked up from the previous survey, and that confidence is flowing into expectations around employment and investment. Companies remain wary that inflation could rise again. In Brazil, the central bank is cutting rates after aggressively raising them in 2022 to combat inflation. The economy has managed to grow throughout 2023, with services doing most of the heavy lifting. Discover more PMI insights here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/pmi.html Featured experts:

Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html Pollyanna De Lima, Associate Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/de-lima-pollyanna.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Inflation was the economic bogeyman of 2022. Some Central European central banks believe they’ve banished the bogeyman and are cutting or preparing to cut interest rates.

The story in neighboring Russia and Turkey is different, with central banks there making defensive moves to shore up the countries’ currencies.

What is driving inflation trends in these economies? And where are rates there heading?

Featured experts:

Andy Birch, associate director, Europe & CIS economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/birch-andrew.html Lilit Gevorgyan, associate director, Europe & CIS economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence| https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/gevorgyan-lilit.html Shuchita Shukla, senior economist, Europe & CIS economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/shukla-shuchita.html

We share our outlook for commercial and residential construction in Europe. We expect nonresidential structure spending to decline across the region. The speed and intensity of the correction in the eurozone housing market will vary by country.

What is driving our outlook in these markets? What headwinds are these markets facing, and when are they likely to ease?

Featured experts:

Amandeep Bahra, senior economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Anja Heimann, senior Europe economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/heimann-anja.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In this episode, we share an excerpt from our recent webinar exploring our latest global construction outlook. Our expert discusses the global economic drivers of construction markets, highlight changes in our forecast, and pinpoint areas of strength and weakness.

Featured expert:

Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html

Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Political change is coming to South and Southeast Asia. Elections have concluded this year in the Maldives and Thailand, and are scheduled to take place in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia in the next year. With these elections comes the potential for sweeping policy changes and government instability. What forces will shape this new political order? Where are we likely to see the greatest shift in policy direction? And how will these new governments interact with their neighbors and the wider world? Featured experts: Aries Poon, Head of Asia Pacific Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/contributors/1446418/aries-poon Deepa Kumar, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kumar-deepa.html Hannah Cotillon, Senior South Asia Country Risk Analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cotillon-hannah.html Anton Alifandi, Lead ASEAN Country Risk Analyst, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/alifandi-anton.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/ Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Our forecast for US holiday sales is looking "delightfully average," according to Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence. Consumer spending has shown resilience to tightening financial conditions, thanks to a strong labor market and rising wages. Banks, meanwhile, are eyeing deposit levels and delinquencies as interest rates have crept higher and inflation persists. Delinquencies are rising — but from historically low rates, said Nathan Stovall, director of financial institutions research at S&P Global Market Intelligence and host of the Street Talk podcast. Listen to Michael and Nathan talk about how the outlook for US holiday spending is likely to impact banks, retailers, the economy, and the Fed's next move. Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/ Featured experts: Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence Nathan Stovall, director of financial institutions research, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The supply chain story of 2023 so far has been one of normalization. Demand has slowed down with U. S. seaborne imports of consumer goods falling in the first eight months of the year. The seasonality of shipping patterns also appears to be returning to normal and global trade activity is likely to stabilize.

But as ever, we see risks on the horizon. Trade policies are becoming more restrictive and sustainability policies are starting to have real consequences for supply chains. Water stress and labor action also threaten supply chain stability.

What is driving the return to normal in supply chains? What strategies are companies exploring to build resilience?

Featured expert:

Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html

Russia's economy seemed to show remarkable resilience in the face of waves of sanctions that followed its invasion of Ukraine. But recently the bank of Russia had to take steps to shore up a weakening ruble.

Are the sanctions finally biting? And how much of a bite would it take to get Russia to the negotiating table?

We discuss what has supported Russia's economy during wartime, shifts in trade routes, currency effects, and our near-term outlook.

Featured expert:

Lilit Gevorgyan, Associate Director, Europe and CIS Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/gevorgyan-lilit.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

The US market for home improvement was at an all-time high during the pandemic when many people were forced to live, work, and educate their children under the same roof. That demand disrupted supply chains for labor and materials and drove price inflation for lumber and other goods. This year the market looks different, thanks to higher interest rates on home improvement loans, reduced availability of homes to buy, and new incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act. Find out how the pro and DIY segments are faring and learn what energy-saving projects homeowners are likely to prioritize in 2023 and beyond. Featured expert: Scott Hazelton, director, consulting, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/index.html

2023 has delivered some extreme weather, from extreme heat in Southern Europe to a dry spell that affected crop yields in Southeast Asia and Australia, often with tragic human consequences. Extreme weather events like droughts and floods also present risks to economies and supply chains. For example, the level of the Rhine River in Europe can impact the transportation of a range of raw materials, rippling through to industrial performance. Our Purchasing Managers' Index and other survey data can pick up this impact, helping to assess behavioral changes as nations transition to greener and more efficient forms of energy. Our PMI economists share the signals they see in the data and how they provide insights into over 40 countries and regions around the world. Featured experts: Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-phil.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

We all think of emissions when we’re stuck in traffic, cars idling all around us. But how many of us think of ships waiting to get into busy ports? We may be stuck in road traffic for an hour, but ships can be waiting many hours to enter a port, generating emissions all the while. What is the shipping industry doing to manage these wait times and get closer to their emissions targets — and save money in the process? Featured expert: Turloch Mooney, director, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/mooney-turloch.html

South Africa hosted this year’s heads of state summit for the BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and mainland China along with South Africa. The alliance admitted Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as members from January 2024. And there’s an indication of future expansion as well.

What's the reasoning behind the expansion, and why are these countries eager to join?

Featured expert:

Lange Malimela, head of Country Risk for sub-Saharan Africa at S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malimela-langelihle.html

Sub-Saharan Africa has a potentially important role to play in the global supply chain of critical minerals, having very sizeable reserves of minerals needed for the green economy transition.

Development of extractive industries on the continent is often constrained by weak infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and narrow financial markets. The increasing scrutiny over the compliance with environmental, social, and governance standards also poses challenges.

We explore these challenges and opportunities and share insights from our recent analysis.

Featured experts:

Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/strobel-alisa.html

Thea Fourie, Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Economics and Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/fourie-thea.html

Langelihle Malimela, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malimela-langelihle.html

Archbold Macheka, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Roughly 18 months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shock waves through financial and commodities markets.

Since then, we've seen rounds of sanctions from the US and EU, an expansion of NATO, and an attempted mutiny in Russia. Still, the war grinds on.

How long is the conflict likely to last? What risk factors could influence its trajectory? We discuss our recent report on the outlook for the war.

Featured expert:

Alex Kokcharov, Associate Director, Country Risk, Europe and CIS
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kokcharov-alex.html

Cars. Steel. Semiconductors. Appliances. Pharmaceuticals. More products are being made in Mexico for the US market — a trend known as nearshoring. In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. We started with an overview of the economic and geopolitical risks and opportunities in episode one. We delved into the operational side in episode two. And in this, the final episode in the series, we’ll tell the supply chain story. Featured expert:

Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html

Building your manufacturing facility in Mexico can pay dividends. It can also pose risks to your business. How do companies weigh these factors when deciding whether to locate their operations in Mexico?

In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. In our first episode, We set the scene with an overview of the economic and geopolitical forces driving the trend. In this episode, we’ll delve into the operational side. Is Mexico's infrastructure drawing companies in? What is the risk of labor and social unrest?

Featured experts:

Emily Crowley, director, Pricing & Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/crowley-emily.html

Johanna Marris, senior analyst - Latin America country risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/marris-johanna.html

You may have heard about companies nearshoring to Mexico. Each week there seems to be another headline announcing an investment in the country’s manufacturing sector.

In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. We’ll start in this episode with an overview of the economic and geopolitical risks and opportunities.

Featured speakers:

Rafael Amiel, director of Latin America economics
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/amiel-rafael.html

Jose Enrique Macip, Senior Analyst, Latin America Country Risk
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/macip-jose.html

Supply chains are almost back to normal in terms of activity, inventories and seasonality. Yet there are plenty of uncertainties in both government policy and physical risk heading into the second half of 2023.

In this episode, the head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence shares insights from his recent Q3 outlook report.

Featured speaker:

Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html

Sign up for the complimentary Supply Chain Essentials newsletter here: https://ow.ly/YNBI50Phl0z

Our Purchasing Managers' Index team compiles data for more than 40 economies around the world. In this episode, the economists explore the divergence in the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors in countries including Australia and Greece. They zero in on how this is showing up in labor markets, looking at employment growth and wages.

Learn more about our Purchasing Managers' Index here: http://ow.ly/VjM050OsqWf Featured speakers:

Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/pan-jingyi.html

The 74-year-old North Atlantic Treaty Organization, better known as NATO, is holding its summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 and 12. The event will be attended by representatives of the 31 member states, as well as candidate country Sweden. Aspiring NATO members Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine are also likely to send delegates.

What's on their agenda? And how is NATO staying relevant in a world of shifting geopolitical alliances?

Hear from our experts:

Lindsay Newman, Head of Geopolitical Thought Leadership, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/newman-lindsay.html

Alex Kokcharov, Associate Director for Country Risk for Europe and CIS, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kokcharov-alex.html

House prices experienced sharp increases in most developed economies during the last decade as record-low interest rates supported demand for property. The tightening of global monetary conditions over the past year has driven a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024. The degree of impact, of course, varies by market.

In this episode — the third and final installment of our series on housing markets around the globe — we zero in on select markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

Featured speakers:

Todd Lee, Chief China Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/lee-todd.html

Bree Neff, Director, Asia Pacific Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/neff-bree.html

House prices experienced sharp increases in most developed economies during the last decade as record-low interest rates supported demand for property. The tightening of global monetary conditions over the past year has driven a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024. The degree of impact, of course, varies by market. In this episode — the second of three in our series on housing markets around the globe — we explore select markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa regions. Featured speakers:

Ralf Wiegert, director for MENA Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wiegert-ralf.html Jamil Naayem, principal MENA Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/naayem-jamil.html Ronel Oberholzer, head of Sub-Saharan Africa Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence

House prices experienced sharp increases in most developed economies during the last decade as record-low interest rates supported demand for property. The tightening of global monetary conditions over the past year has driven a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024. The degree of impact, of course, varies by market. In this episode — the first of three on housing markets — our experts look at the US, Canada and Europe. What are the common themes? What are the distinguishing traits of these markets? What is the direction of travel of house prices, and what are the potential risks to those markets? Featured speakers: * Patrick Newport, who works for our US macroeconomics team and covers the housing market and international trade
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/newport-patrick.html

Arlene Kish, director of Canadian macroeconomics
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kish-arlene.html
Anja Heimann, a senior economist in the Europe economics team
https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/heimann-anja.html

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking to position Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, as a country willing to expand and diversify its trade relations. The government is seeking to strengthen strategic sectors such as agribusiness, manufacturing, renewable energy and infrastructure, particularly via public-private partnerships.

Even with emerging opportunities, companies operating in Brazil — or seeking to establish commercial relations with Brazilian counterparts — will face economic, political and regulatory challenges. In this episode, our experts provide their perspective on the country’s economic and risk landscape.

Featured speakers:

Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/amiel-rafael.html Carlos Caicedo, Associate Director, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/caicedo-carlos.html Ailsa Rosales, Senior Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rosales-ailsa.html Carlos Cardenas, Executive Director, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cardenas-carlos.html

On May 28, voters in Turkey went to the polls for a second time to choose their president after a vote two-weeks earlier proved inconclusive. In this second round, current President Erdogan won a close contest 52% to 48%, extending his two-decade long administration for at least another five years.

What does his victory mean for the country, the region and the world? Our experts share their insights.

Featured speakers:

Jessica Leyland, senior analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence
Andy Birch, economist and associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence
John Raines, director and principal global risks adviser at at S&P Global Market Intelligence

It’s a big year for India. It’s become the world’s most populous country. In September, it will host the G20 summit, at a crucial time for global partnerships in a post-pandemic world and an ongoing conflict in Ukraine. And in just about a year, voters will go to the polls in parliamentary elections.

These recent global events have prompted India to recalibrate its geopolitical strategy. India has earmarked manufacturing as a key sector to manifest its global ambitions, not least to attract jobs at home. The country is keen to use platforms like the G20 – and COP28 – to demonstrate to the world how it balances domestic needs with international pressures to pursue energy transition.

Sharing their insights on India's ambitions are:

Deepa Kumar, Associate Director and lead India analyst for APAC Economics & Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kumar-deepa.html

Gauri Jauhar, Executive Director, Energy Transitions & Clean Tech Consulting at S&P Global Commodity Insights who leads our Consulting work in India https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/jauhar-gauri.html

Ashima Tyagi, Economics Associate Director with the Pricing and Purchasing Service at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/tyagi-ashima.html

Check out our blog for more insights on India: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/outlook-for-indias-economic-growth-and-policy-platforms.html

As the stressed economy continues to impact global industries, volatility, reduced demand, disrupted supply chains, and higher costs, among other factors, are affecting businesses' revenue and cash flow, and many industries are at a higher risk of the likelihood of default and bankruptcy.

Credit and risk management professionals need to be prepared for unpredictable conditions and act quickly to manage their credit risk exposure and minimize potential losses.

In this bonus podcast episode, our experts provide a timely update on the global economic landscape, and an in-depth analysis on how unpredictable economic conditions are impacting the credit risk of industries across the U.S.

Featured speakers:

Jonathan Ablett Executive Director, Global Economic Modelling and Scenario Design S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/ablett-jonathan.html

Hrvoje Tomicic Credit Product Specialist, Credit & Risk Solutions S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/contributors/1461968/hrvoje-tomicic

For more information, see our blog post: http://ow.ly/pXZY50OuucN

Our Purchasing Managers' Index team compiles data for more than 40 economies around the world. In this episode, the economists unpack recent events in sub-Saharan Africa and discuss how the PMI data illuminate economic trends across the region.

Featured speakers:

Paul Smith Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html

Andrew Harker Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html Thea Fourie Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Insights & Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/fourie-thea.html Learn more about our Purchasing Managers' Index here: http://ow.ly/VjM050OsqWf

Gain more insights from our blog: http://ow.ly/e6Xo50Osr14

What is driving construction spending in 2023? Our expert discusses the economic forces at play in various regions and shares our global outlook for the year.

Russia has repeatedly stated that it will not work with the G7 oil price cap for crude oil that took effect in December 2022, or with the subsequent price cap on refined products that became effective in February 2023. If Russia insists on not conforming to the price cap, it can't use services located in G7 countries due to sanctions controls. This scenario gives rise to the need for a substantial shadow or ghost fleet of vessels able to transport Russian oil as close to capacity as possible while potentially evading G7 sanctions and the crude and refined oil price caps. Listen and learn about the size of the shadow fleet, hot spots for ship-to-ship transfers of cargo, and why financial institutions should be concerned about ghost ships from our expert: Byron McKinney, Product Management Director, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/mckinney-byron.html You can download our white paper on Russia's shadow fleet here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/Info/0323/russia-shadow-fleet.html You can also read more about vessel ownership here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/vessel-ownership-trade-finance-and-regulatory-compliance.html

We began 2023 grappling with worries of high and persistent inflation. Now we are looking at a new downside risk to the global economy: turbulence in the banking sector. Recent events have sparked a fear of contagion—and a crisis in confidence—especially in the US and Western Europe. How worried should we be? What comes next?

Our experts discuss the differences between now and the 2008 crisis, and dig into what this means for economic growth, sector health, and policy responses.

John Raines (moderator)Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/raines-john.html Ken Wattret Chief European Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html Aries Poon Head of APAC Analysis and Insights, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/contributors/1446418/aries-poon Alyssa Grzelak Director, Banking Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/grzelak-alyssa.html Chris VarvaresVP and Co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/varvares-chris.html

The US economy has been on a roller coaster ride since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, making the job of economists even harder. What indicators should we be paying attention to as we watch for a recession that may or may not materialize? Where should we look for signs that inflation is easing?

Here to share his insights on these questions is:

Chris Varvares, Vice President and co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/varvares-chris.html

The year 2023 is a year of two halves for global supply chains. During second quarter 2023, a normalization of supply chain conditions will continue after getting underway in late 2022. Later in 2023, post-pandemic corporate strategies should be clearer and global policy uncertainties may be resolved.

What do purchasing managers and C-suite executives need to know to make smart business decisions? S&P Global Market Intelligence's head of supply chain research shares insights from his report on the Q2 outlook for supply chains.

Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/ex…ogers-chris.html

The year 2023 is a year of two halves for global supply chains. During second quarter 2023, a normalization of supply chain conditions will continue after getting underway in late 2022. Later in 2023, post-pandemic corporate strategies should be clearer and global policy uncertainties may be resolved.What do purchasing managers and C-suite executives need to know to make smart business decisions? S&P Global Market Intelligence's head of supply chain research shares insights from his report on the Q2 outlook for supply chains.Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html

While the Russia-Ukraine war continues, violent incidents are occurring across the globe, including ongoing protests in Europe, terrorist attacks in Africa, criminal activity in Mexico, and the potential for conflict in the Middle East.In this episode, our experts assess how these episodes of violence are impacting businesses and what companies are doing to mitigate their exposure.John Raines (moderator)https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/raines-john.htmlJose Macip, Senior Analyst for Latin Americahttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/Macip-Jose.htmlKevjn Lim, Principal Research Analyst for Middle East North Africahttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/lim-kevjn.htmlBibianna Norek, Senior Analyst for Europehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/norek-bibianna.htmlLangelihle Malimela, Principal Research Analyst for Africahttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malimela-langelihle.html

The global economic expansion is moving forward at a subdued pace in 2023, as tightening monetary policies and pandemic scars are creating challenging business conditions. Tight labor market conditions could delay progress in reducing inflation, prompting more aggressive monetary policy responses that threaten growth. Our experts share their views on the global economic outlook.Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/johnson-sara.htmlJoel Prakken, Chief US Economist and and co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/prakken-joel.htmlDiego Iscaro, Head of European Economicshttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/iscaro-diego.htmlTodd C Lee, Chief China Economisthttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/lee-todd.htmlThea Fourie, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa Insights & Analysishttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/fourie-thea.html

We've seen some positive surprises recently on real GDP and survey data in the eurozone and European Union, indicating the economy is more resilient than expected. What's driving those surprises and what do we see when we look beyond the headline figure?

Trade between the US and China reached a record in 2022 with imports and exports between the countries exceeding $690 billion. What are the forces shaping the economic relations between the two countries and what can we expect on US China trade going forward? Hear from our experts:John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser, Head of North America Risk and Director at S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/raines-john.htmlTodd Lee, Chief China Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/lee-todd.html

Countries around the world are developing strategies around minerals that they consider critical to their economies and their national security, such as copper and lithium. We discuss these strategies and their potential geopolitical impacts with our experts:Carla Selman, head of Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/selman-carla.htmlTheo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/acheampong-theo.htmlHannah Cotillon, Senior Analyst, Asia-Pacific Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cotillon-hannah.html

This episode will provide you with a deep dive into the uncertainty facing South Africa's economy in 2023. Our expert shares the top macroeconomic forecasts for the global economy as well as the South African economy for the coming year.Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/fourie-thea.html

This episode will provide you with a deep dive into the political governance and policy changes expected in South Africa at the start of 2023, following a significant elective conference for the country's ruling ANC party.Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk, Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malimela-langelihle.html

On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, creating the largest land war in Europe since World War II. In the process, the war accelerated already-high inflation, caused economic dislocation, and produced millions of refugees. In this episode, our experts assess the conflict and the overall economic impact and share where we think the situation is headed.

Economists on our Purchasing Managers' Index team use the prism of our PMI datasets to look at some of the most important themes in the global economy at the start of 2023. These include inflation, the recent reopening of China's economy, and supply chain risks. They also discuss the top 10 PMI indicators they think will be interesting to watch this year. Click here to watch the full video on the top 10 PMI indicators: http://ow.ly/IpK450MF22YPaul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.htmlAndrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.htmlJoseph Hayes, Senior Economist, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/hayes-joseph.html

2023 is likely to be another year out of equilibrium. Accumulating shocks from the COVID-19 virus pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict are proving pervasive and persistent and are profoundly reorganizing global structures and relationships. We see five key risk areas to watch for 2023: economic dissonance, reshuffling labor markets, supply chain stabilization, energy security and the energy transition ahead, and the global security environment. These tests are interconnected and have vast commercial impacts from trade protectionism to financial market volatility to civil unrest risk.In this podcast episode, our experts provide a comprehensive analysis of the global economic, industry, and country risk prospects in the year ahead and give you timely insights for charting your organization’s course in 2023.

Tight labor markets made headlines in 2022 as inflation rose to a record and employment and vacancy rates remained high. But what will 2023 bring?Economists from our Pricing & Purchasing team talk about what's happening in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific regions and what it means for businesses.Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emilySophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malin-sophie.htmlSam Parkin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence

A world ordered for decades by globalization and geoeconomics has become a world oriented around geopolitics. An accumulation of shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic to the conflict in Ukraine, initially thought to be time-limited, have proven more lasting and pervasive. In this episode, we explore the forces shaping this new world order. Dr. Lindsay Newman, Executive Director and Head of Geopolitical Thought Leadership at S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay

Supply chain disruptions, persistent inflation and the removal of pandemic-related government support and accommodative monetary policy provided a challenging economic environment in 2022. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the upheaval in processed materials and commodities markets – especially for energy – took those challenges to a new and more pernicious level. How will the global economy fare in 2023 as markets, firms and consumers continue to adjust to the confluence of these major headwinds? S&P Global Market Intelligence economists reveal our top 10 predictions for the global economy in 2023, including the prospects for taming inflation, the extent of monetary policy tightening, and the likelihood of a global recession. Chris Varvares, Vice President and co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/varvares-chrisSara Johnson, Executive Director of Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/johnson-saraTodd Lee, Executive Director and Chief China Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/lee-toddJoel Prakken, Vice President and Chief U.S. Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/prakken-joelKen Wattret, Vice President and Head of Europe in Economics and Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/wattret-ken

What trends and events are expected to shape the economies of sub-Saharan Africa in 2023? We discuss inflation, interest rates, elections and more.Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Electrical steel is a niche product that is essential for making transformers, generators and electric motors. While it only constitutes about 1% of global steel production today, it is poised to grow exponentially along with the electric vehicle market. In 2022, about 9 million EVs will be produced globally. By the beginning of the next decade, the EV market is expected to break 40 million vehicles. Our experts discuss the challenges and opportunities presented by this new and burgeoning market for electrical steel.John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-johnFrank Hoffman, Consulting Principal, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligencehttps://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/hoffman-frank.html

Tune in for the latest trends seen in our Purchasing Managers Index data. Our economists discuss the strength of Middle East economies and challenges facing economies within Africa. They also look at what's driving the rise in global manufacturing stocks of finished goods and highlight a new data set within the PMI offering that aims to quantify the impact of common themes like demand inflation and delivery times.

Paul Smith, Director for Economic Indices at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html

Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew

David Owen, economist for Economic Indices at S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/owen-david.html

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, will return to office in January after winning the presidential election by the narrowest margin in the country’s political history. This time, he faces different political and fiscal environments. How will he handle that? Our experts discuss the policy outlook for the incoming administration and how those policies will impact businesses and the economy.

Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/caicedo-carlos

Ailsa Rosales, Senior Country Risk Analyst, Latin America and Caribbean, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/rosales-ailsa.html

Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America & Caribbean Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/amiel-rafael

Having the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP27, in Egypt naturally shines a spotlight on the policies African nations are considering on energy transition and decarbonization — and the financing of those efforts. Our experts discuss financing options including carbon credits and loss and damage payments for countries vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. What impact will tightening global financial conditions and the energy security needs of Europe have on these efforts?

Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

William Farmer, Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/farmer-william.html

Do you dream about renovating your home? Are you wondering whether rising interest rates, inflation and labor issues will turn that dream into a nightmare? Two of our experts discuss the near-term outlook for home improvement spending, which reached an all-time high in 2021.

Scott Hazelton, Director, Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hazelton-scott

Alex Cotter, Consulting Director, Consumer goods, manufacturing and financial services, S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/cotter-alex

Bargain hunting is coming back into fashion this holiday season as inflation drives up prices and inventories remain high for certain categories of goods. Two of our US economic experts discuss the resilience of US consumer spending and factors influencing holiday shopping including commodity prices, labor costs and supply chains.

Michael Zdinak, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Akshat Goel, Senior Economist, US Macro and Consumer Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/goel-akshat

Energy markets will be tight everywhere through the end of 2022 and start of 2023. Europe has the highest likelihood of lack of availability of natural gas, and in some cases, electricity, after Russia reduced natural gas exports to the region, Our experts discuss the outlook for the energy markets globally and the likely impacts of high costs on energy-intensive industries like glass and steel.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

Thomas McCartin, Senior Economist, Pricing & Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence

https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mccartin-thomas

Armed conflict has broken out in Ethiopia and insurgents have delayed the development of liquified natural gas facilities in Mozambique. Our sub-Saharan Africa country risk and economics experts discuss how these conflicts are adding significant additional uncertainty to the economic policy environment, worsening international relations and impacting manufacturing and exports.

Where should you build your next hotel or export office? Our expert talks about the five-year outlook for global construction and which markets are attractive for investment based on our regional data and country risk scores. Spoiler alert: London makes the cut.

Scott Hazelton, director of consulting, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hazelton-scott

Our economists discuss dominant themes through the lenses of our Purchasing Managers’ Index data sets. What are the recent trends in the Australian private sector economy? What does the data from Taiwan, a bellwether of global manufacturing, tell us? How is tighter monetary policy impacting real estate and other sectors? Where are we seeing supply constraints?

Paul Smith, Economics Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew

Laura Denman, Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The risk for metals pricing and availability in 2023 is extreme and it is to the upside. That's mainly because energy prices are high and energy availability is under threat, particularly in Europe. Other factors that may impact metals prices include extreme weather and supply chain disruptions. Our experts discuss what category managers should consider when locking in prices for 2023.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

Companies are considering nearshoring, or relocating operations closer to destination markets, in response to recent supply chain shocks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to China's dynamic COVID containment policy. Mexico is well placed to benefit from nearshoring, given its strong interdependence with the US economy. Our experts discuss the opportunities for Mexico's economy and key industries including semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging, as well as risks for companies considering nearshoring to Mexico.

Link to blog: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/mexico-nearshoring-potential-for-critical-minerals.html

Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily

Jose Sevilla-Macip, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/Macip-Jose

Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America & Caribbean Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/amiel-rafael

How can you capture commodities price volatility in your supply contracts and mitigate your risk? Our experts discuss how to balance risk between parties using price mechanisms.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

Laura Hodges, Vice President, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hodges-laura

Dealing with high inflation is never simple. With stagflation, it's even more complicated. The Fed is sending clear signals that controlling inflation is its top priority and could come at the expense of employment and economic growth. That would raise the risk of stagflation and have ripple effects across the globe. Our experts discuss the drivers and economic impacts of higher inflation.

Amanda Eglinton, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/eglinton-amanda

Chris Varvares, Vice President and co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/varvares-chris

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/williamson-chris

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john

Todd C. Lee, Chief China Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/lee-todd

A slowdown in food and oil prices could bring inflation down in the sub-Saharan African region in the coming months, although the downward path will be slow and coming from very high levels. Pressures on household income will remain very prevalent. Our experts discuss what this means for social unrest and political developments in the sub-Saharan African region over the next six months and potential hotspots to monitor.

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Martin Roberts, Principal Analyst, Deputy Head - Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/roberts-martin

Theophilus Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk, Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Jordan Anderson, Senior Analyst, Research Advisory Specialty Solutions, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-jordan

Lumber prices have dropped sharply in recent months, leading other commodities down from the levels seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A surge in home prices and an uptick in mortgage rates have deterred home buyers, home renovators and builders, dampening demand for lumber. Our commodities experts discuss the outlook for prices that are still higher than their pre-pandemic averages.

John Anton, director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-John

Deni Koenhemsi, associate director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/koenhemsi-deni

Increased pricing pressures are being felt across the Sub-saharan Africa. Banks have hiked their policy rates by 100, 150 and even 200 bases points dependent on the market. Utilizing our nowcasting PMI data and our forecasting data our regional experts delve into the key differentiators between SSA data and our developed markets data to get a better picture of the underlying pressures impacting the local economies and what we can expect in the months ahead.

Thea Fourie Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Langelihle Malimela Senior Analyst, Country Risk, Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Ronel Oberholzer, Principal Economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Andrew Harker Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew

With a decrease in food outputs linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, how are businesses and governments coping with rising food costs and the knock-on inflationary effects? Our experts assess the on-the-ground realities to understand the implications for long-term growth and stability.

John Raines, PhD, Director, Country Risk (moderator) Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist Paul Hughes, Chief Agricultural Economist & Director of Research, Agribusiness Alex Kokcharov, Principal Research Analyst, Russia Jihane Boudiaf, Country Risk Analyst, Middles East and Africa

While digital technology allows people to connect at unprecedented scale and speed without concern for proximity, it has also allowed malicious actors to do the same. Sharing innovations, skills, and tools, cyber-threat actors present a growing concern to governments and businesses as attacks become increasingly frequent and complex. The influx of remote workforces, new technologies, and growing geopolitical tensions have created opportunities for cyber criminals and state actors to take advantage of company vulnerabilities. Our experts discuss the evolving nature of the threats facing firms and how organizations are attempting to counteract these ongoing dangers.

John Raines, PhD, Director, Country Risk (moderator) Scott Crawford, Research Director, Security, 451 Research Cassandra Pagan, Consulting Principal, Cyber and Quantification Jordan Anderson, Senior analyst, County Risk

Read more: ihsmarkit.com/ecr

Local COVID-related lockdowns in mainland China, the war in Ukraine, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the global economy – especially in China and surrounding geographies. Our PMI surveys are showing some of the steepest reductions in overall Chinese business activity and new orders since the initial wave of the pandemic in 2020. Digging deeper into the underlying numbers, our PMI team discusses what this all means for manufacturing health, labor markets, and local policy.

Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director, Economic Indices Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indices

A number of critical elections in 2022 will influence more than who holds political office. With a rapidly shifting political landscape and an ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, we are watching the lead-up and outcomes closely to understand the direct influence the results will have on trade policy, security, migration, supply chains, and climate agendas.

Our Economics & Country Risk experts discuss the importance to your business of upcoming elections in the United States, Australia, Brazil, and Colombia and the influence these will have beyond country borders.

John Raines, Ph.D., Director, Country Risk (moderator) Chris Varvares, Vice President, US Economics Carlos Caicedo, Associate Director, Latin America Hannah Cotillon, Senior Analyst, Asia Bree Neff, Economics Director, Asia

Join our metals experts, John Anton and John Mothersole as they delve into the volatility of metals pricing in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and with the growing COVID-19 outbreak in China. These two factors two factors are placing immense stress on steel, copper, and aluminum markets. And while we usually hear a singular global story – this month regions are telling their own pricing tales. What does this mean for buyers, manufacturers, and consumers? How high is too high?

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

John Mothersole, Research Director, Pricing and Purchasing https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

Like most of the world, the Sub-Saharan African region is only slowly starting to recover from the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. With growing supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and growing uncertainty due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the region is facing additional recovery challenges. Our experts discuss the sharp escalation in global food prices, such as wheat and cooking oil; the implications of the high oil price in the region; and consequences of disruptive trade flows. Can the region make a rebound? The answer is complicated.

Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Ronel Oberholzer, Principal Economist

Archbold Macheka, Economist, Sub Saharan Africa https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/macheka-archbold

The contents of this podcast was created by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

ihsmarkit.com/ecr

Our PMI(TM) team digs into the February PMI survey results which indicate waning impacts from COVID-19 on the services economies and large bounces across the Globe. While several countries are still feeling the pressures from lockdowns and continuing waves of uncertainty, improving demand, capacity and business confidence are showing positive signs of improvement. The team also addresses the impact of firms passing on rising operating costs to end users and clients. What will this mean for sustained economic growth and are these ripples and waves strong enough to continue to improve with rising geopolitical turmoil?

Paul Smith, Director, PMI https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html

Joseph Hayes, Senior Economist, PMI https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hayes-joseph

Andrew Harker, Director, PMI https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew

The contents of this podcast were published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

Pricing pressures on nonferrous metals have negatively impacted the machinery and equipment categories – specifically electrical machinery. If we layer on supply issues around transformers, motors, and generators we are facing a whole new challenge around availability and cost. And this time it could hit the consumer wallet. What’s behind the long lead times and shortages? What will this mean for refrigerator motors, electric car motors, and more? Our pricing and purchasing team tackle the real story in this new supply chain disruption.

John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html Maxwell Clarke https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/clarke-maxwell.html

Commodity prices experience huge spikes over the past two years. We are beginning to see escalation rates slow for many raw materials. However, between rising inflation rates and growing consumer demand, pricing pressures are being felt by the end consumer. Our pricing and purchasing team digs in to understand how inflation, cost of good, labor costs, and commodity prices are going to fair in the near-term.

John Mothersole https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

The US Federal Reserve is expected to start rate tightening in March. What will this mean for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with less solid macroeconomic fundamentals? Our Africa team discusses which countries are at most risk, how they could secure debt restructuring, how they will be impacted by rising inflation, and if security developments will influence fiscal developments across the region.

Thea Fourie https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Chris Suckling https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/suckling-chris Alisa Strobel https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

Volatility shocks to a wide range of sectors will likely continue for much of the year ahead. Not only are global threats increasing, but they’re also becoming intertwined.

In this week’s episode, listen in as our experts uncover the critical dynamics of today’s localized conflicts, the shift towards climate justice, and an intensifying competition for critical resources.

Link to webcast: https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3595132/22ECBA9DC6C4501EB741C5C413C24D30?partnerref=Ondemand-podcast

Immigration has quickly become one of the frontline issues affecting the stability of societies and economies. Traditional drivers of irregular migration, such as economic stress, security, and conflict, are likely to intensify in the coming year. Stalled economic recoveries, climate and environmental stressors, and the political weaponization of migration are driving additional risks. Our experts delve into the impact of migration on economies, security, supply chains, and policy.

John Raines, PhD, Associate Director, Head of North America Country Risk (moderator) Lindsay Newman Ph.D., Director, Economics & Country Risk Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing Blanka Kolenikova, Associate Director, Europe & CIS, Country Risk Jose Sevilla-Macip, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk

Our sub-Saharan research team discusses the current political challenges connected to elections, and pre-elections, in South Africa and Nigeria. What are the main social and economic policy issues for the coming year? Is the Covid-19 pandemic still creating social and economic complications and how will this influence voters? And most critically, what role will fuel price pressures and fuel subsidies have on the outcome of these elections?

Langelihle Malimela, Country Risk Senior Analyst– Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Martin Roberts, Country Risk Principal Analyst, Deputy Head - Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/roberts-martin

Thea Fourie, Economics Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Following on a year of severe supply disruption including weather, trade challenges, and supply chain breakdowns, are chemical markets slowly starting to right themselves? Our Pricing and Purchasing team talks through buying conditions region by region.

John Anton Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

Michael Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/dall-michael.html

IHS Markit economists will reveal our top-10 predictions for the global economy in 2022. Topics include the recovery paths of major economies, trends in interest rates and inflation, trade, exchange rates, financial markets, environmental policies post COP26, as well as geopolitical and social unrest risks.

Chris Varvares, Co-Head of US Economics (moderator) Joel Prakken, Chief US Economist Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Chief International Economist Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics John Mothersole, Director, Pricing & Purchasing Todd Lee, Chief China Economist Rajiv Biswas, Chief Asia Economist Brian Lawson, Financial Consultant

Like the rest of the world, Sub-Saharan Africa suffered greatly from COVID-19 outbreaks and the resulting lock downs. Our Africa team explores how Africa and constituent countries fared through 2021 and then take us to 2022 and what they see in terms of economic growth, external pressures, rising political challenges, and the threat of civil conflict.

Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

Our PMI data have long been used to accurately nowcast - assess the current health of economies. Relying on its early release, well in advance of comparable official data, and its standardized methodology its an accurate early indicator. Our analysts are now using these same attributes to explore how PMI data could help establish whether a currency is over, under, or valued just right. Intrigued? Out PMI research team discusses currency valuations, the impact of price pressures on business performance, and our latest survey results.

Read more about this: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/estimating-shortterm-fx-equilibria-using-pmis-Oct21.html

Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html

Joseph Hayes, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/hayes-joseph.html

Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/de-lima-pollyanna.html

Andrew Harker, Associate Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html

The United States and the EU have agreed to Section 232 revisions that take effect on 1 January 2022. The new agreement is much like the quota-and-tariff “safeguard” regime already in place in Europe. A certain tonnage may be imported from the EU to the United States tariff-free. After the quota fills, additional tons face a 25% tariff. What will this do to steel prices? How about supply? John Mothersole and John Anton discuss the changes this policy shift will have on markets, manufacturers, and metals buyers.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

What’s new in the infrastructure bill and when will we start to see the benefits? Two critical questions to understand when looking at the Infrastructure Bill just passed by the House and Senate. John Anton and John Mothersole sit down to break this big spend bill apart and help us get into the details of the impact to our supply chains, industries, and of course metals markets.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

The news is filled with articles about the semiconductor shortage: how it’s impacting car manufacturing, slowing electronics production, and delaying consumer purchases. But what’s the real story? How do you pull the facts from the noise? Our research team pulls back the curtain to talk through what they were seeing and watching in the data as this shortage came to the forefront.

Watch us put the data to work in our special report: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/critical-supply-chains-mineral-feedstocks-for-batteries.html

Chris Suckling, Principal Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/suckling-chris

Sian Jones, Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/jones-sian.html

Yacine Rouimi, Senior Economist, IHS Markit

Samuel Champanhet, Director, Comparative Industries, IHS Markit

The concept of social license to operate has been around for a long time in both the mining and energy sectors. Many companies have established practices and strategies in place to work collaboratively with local constituents and organizations. Recently, we are seeing an increased interest outside of these two sectors. What’s driving this renewed interest, and does it tie into the growing focus on ESG? Our experts provide some recent examples, best practices, and their insights on what's next.

Having defeated the Afghan government militarily and negotiated the departure of foreign forces from the country, the Taliban’s focus is now on forming a government, demonstrating governance capability, and securing international recognition. However, recent Islamic State attacks underline growing terrorism risks and tensions in the region and hint at great challenges ahead. Get the complete story of what is unfolding across the region.

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john

Asad Ali, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ali-asad

Ludovico Carlino, Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/carlino-ludovico

Choices made today by consumers, corporations, and governments are leading to consequences in the latter half of this century that determine whether we're going to avoid the most serious consequences of climate change. In today’s episode we discuss the physical and transitional risk of climate change and how governments are setting policy and corporations are setting strategy to deal with the reality that increased persistent volatility is becoming a chronic condition.

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john

Jonathan Ablett, Executive Director, Global Economic Modelling Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ablett-jonathan

Fintech is a major force shaping the structure of the financial industry in Sub Saharan Africa and it is rapidly changing the competitive landscape. Block chain technologies specifically have shown great promise to solve issues around access to banking, money, and mortgages. Across the continent it’s also transforming access to energy, education and even healthcare. Is it too good to be true? Should Central Banks race to use digital currency? What should we be thinking about around social economic change, data protection, accountability, regulations and policy? Our analysts talk through this complex issue.

Anton Casteleijn, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/casteleijn-anton

Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian

Understanding the full scope of the risks underlying your proposed projects is critical – from fiscal risk to political, operational, legal, and security risks. Our experts look at the full risk exposures impacting LNG projects in Mozambique and Tanzania using our country risk investment model.

Piero Branella, Associate Director, Risk Intelligence, IHS Markit

Roderick Bruce, Research and Analysis Associate Director, E&P Terms and Above-Ground Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/bruce-roderick

Eva Renon, Senior Country Risk Analyst, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva

Read more: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/country-risk-premiums-quarterly-q3-2021.html

Tight labor markets are causing issues for services and manufacturing industries around the globe. These labor shortages are creating and exacerbating supply chain challenges and will continue to do so for at least the next 12 months. Our pricing team untangles this complicated challenge and explores the structural issues, wage growth pressures, social schemes, and training needs we will face as economic recovery from the pandemic moves forward.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily

Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/malin-sophie.html

With growing concerns around the increase in natural disasters, water shortages, and rising temperatures we are closely watching related unrest and even conflict driven by some of implications for climate change. In today’s episode we look how these incidents are disrupting regional stability, shaping future policy, shifting economic growth and investment plans, and re-imagining sectors and supply chains.

Jordan Anderson, Senior Analyst, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-jordan

Jihane Boudiaf, Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/boudiaf-jihane

Ailsa Rosales, Country Risk Analyst, Latin America and Caribbean, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/rosales-ailsa.html

Diego Iscaro, Senior Economist, Europe Economics https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/iscaro-diego

Petya Barzilska, Sr. Research Analyst II, Europe & CIS Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/barzilska-petya

Malaysian factories suffered shutdowns in June due to the rise in Delta variant cases and, as of now, are still not operating at full capacity. Our PMI survey results showed a close-to-record decline in output and new orders. This does not bode well for Malaysian manufacturing, employment, and much needed relief in supply chain delays. But is it all dismal? Perhaps new fiscal policies in Hong Kong SAR offer some hope for recovery? Join our PMI economists as they discuss these issues and more.

Paul Smith, Economics Director, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html

Andrew Harker, Economics Director, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html

Usamah Bhatti, Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/bhatti-usamah.html

Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of the United Party for National Development, won the 12 August Zambian presidential election. In today’s episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the important policy interventions we can expect from the new government and what this will mean for economic recovery and debt sustainability going forward.

Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-theaTheo

Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk – Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo

In this episode, our Pricing and Purchasing experts looking at the next level downstream at how the changes in commodity prices and shortages are impacting the cost and availability of machinery the machinery and equipment businesses need to operate. With record escalations in almost all commodities, we are just now seeing an explosion in prices in items these inputs feed. It’s becoming increasingly difficult for businesses to maintain prices as they once were – what can the market withstand and for how long? Our experts provide some answers.

Maxwell Clarke Senior Economist, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/clarke-maxwell

John Anton Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

commodities #supplychain

Often held up as the only democratic success story to come out of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has struggled through a decade of consistent unrest and poor economic growth. This all came to a head on 25 July when president, Kais Saied, activated article 80 of the Constitution thus suspending the activities of parliament and parliamentary immunity, and dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi. Our middle East and North Africa experts sit down to talk about the incidents that led to this soft coup, what we believe is next to come, and how this is going to further influence the economic trajectory of the county.

Jack Kennedy, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kennedy-jack-a

Yasmin Ghozzi, North Africa Senior Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit

Ludovico Carlino, Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/carlino-ludovico

What’s driving growth in manufacturing production around the globe? Our PMI economists join us to discuss what our PMI surveys are telling us in real-time about confidence, output, and supply disruption. Using the Czech Republic as a starting point, they discuss trends, delivery times, the spread of the Delta Variant, and our expectations for inflation.

Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Senior Economics, Economic Indices, IHS Markit, https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html Sian Jones, Senior Economist, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/jones-sian.html

After many choppy weeks for commodity markets, the transition in pricing is finally beginning. However, the same cannot be said for the semiconductor industry. Continued tightness in supply, as well as increases in input costs, has created serious issues along the supply chain and across multiple industries. Our experts provide their thoughts on the current state of affairs, the short-term bumps, and the long-term structural factors that are going to be driving the market for the foreseeable future.

John Mothersole, Director of Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

John Bauman, Economics Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/bauman-john

What began as violent protests calling for the release of former president Jacob Zuma from prison in several parts of KwaZulu-Natal province on 9 July has spiraled into significant destruction and unrest across South Africa. Join our South Africa research team as they assess how the damage to infrastructure and the consequent supply chain disruptions have altered growth prospects for the South African economy for 2021 and 2022. They will cover economic growth, options to effectively address the challenging electricity situation, and the likelihood, triggers, and key risks for continued political instability

Anton Casteleijn, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/casteleijn-anton

Thea Fourie, Associate Director of the Sub-Saharan Africa https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Silvia Macri, Principal Research Manager, Africa and Middle East Power & Renewables - Climate and Sustainability, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/macri-silvia

Nezo Sobekwa, Country Risk Research Analyst, IHS Markit

The Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won 410 out of 436 seats in the Federal Parliament in an electoral process that excluded one-fifth of the country due to logistical issues, insecurity or conflict, and was boycotted by the Oromo Federalist Congress and Oromo Liberation Front. Experts from our economics and county risk teams sit down together to discuss what this means for government stability, financial opportunities, ongoing conflict, and economic growth.

Langelihle Malimela, Senior Africa Country Risk Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Eva Renon, Senior Africa Country Risk Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva.html

Jordan Anderson, Country Risk Senior Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-jordan

Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

The US recently announced a long-awaited withdrawal despite the fact that the Taliban is making advancements in the country. Progress in many fronts seem illusive. John Raines and Asad Ali from our county risk team discuss the rise of Taliban activity in the region, why the US is going ahead with withdrawal, and what a post-civil war government could look like in the wake of fighting, discussions and negotiations.

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/ experts/raines-john

Asad Ali, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ali-asad

The third wave of COVID-19 is heavily impacting Southern Africa. Infection rates have risen over 20% and deaths rose 15% in recent weeks. Our Economic and County Risk experts sit down to talk through the disease progression and the lessons learned by governments regarding lockdowns, vaccine rollout, and containment issues in countries with fragile healthcare systems. Will local responses trigger political unrest and protest? Join us to learn more.

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Deepa Kumar, Deputy Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk Team – Asia-Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kumar-deepa

Langelihle Malimela, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Nezo Sobekwa, Country Risk Analyst, Africa, IHS Markit

In today’s episode, we are once again talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it’s called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but highly impactful events. Our risk experts, Carlos Caicedo and Alexia Ash share highlights from our Latin America SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) scenario. We consider three main issues in our worst-case scenario: · Prolonged economic recession · Additional waves of Covid-19 · Coordinated insurrections Listen to today’s episode to hear our thoughts on what this could mean for the region, which countries will fare best, and what indicators we are watching closely to assess the likelihood of the scenario unfolding.

Read more about our RDS: https://ihsmarkit.com/products/stress-test-insurance-portfolios-realistic-disaster-scenarios.html

Alexia Ash, Associate Director, Country Risk Consulting, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ash-alexia.html

Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/preview/caicedo-carlos

The news, and our podcasts, have been filled with stories about the dramatic rise in lumber prices – until 2 weeks ago when prices fell. Join our Pricing and Purchasing and construction industry experts as they discuss what precipitated the price drop and whether prices will soon drop to pre-pandemic levels. They also turn their attention to the housing market where materials prices, inclusive of lumber, are up 9% but the cost of a new house is up 20%. They unpack what is driving up costs and how the construction market is doing around the globe. It’s a true tale of supply and demand.

Deni Koenhemsi, Principal Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/koenhemsi-deni

John Anton. Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

Scott Hazelton, Director, Construction, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/hazelton-scott

Sub-Saharan Africa suffered a sharp economic contraction over the last year. Pandemic lockdowns, trade and supply Chain disruptions, and employment disruptions had a marked impact on household and business wallets. In today’s episode, our SSA and PMI teams discuss the speed and magnitude of recovery across the region as countries begin to reopen despite the pandemic and slow vaccine rollouts. They will focus in our PMI data as they look at employment condition, recovery efforts, and what this ultimately means for the consumer.

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Andrew Harker, Associate Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/harker-andrew.html

Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit. https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

In today’s episode, we are doing something a little different- we are talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it’s called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but impactful events. Our risk experts, Kevjn Lim and Alexia Ash, share a little bit of their analysis from our RDS on Iran regional war risks including our baseline forecast for the region, a description of the scenario, and the indicators to watch.

Alexia Ash, Associate Director, Country Risk Consulting https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ash-alexia

Kevjn Lim, Senior Risk Advisor, Middle East and North Africa, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lim-kevjn.html

Commodity prices have experienced a spectacular rally since March of 2020. Are we finally seeing some weak signals that prices may be stabilizing? John Anton and John Mothersole join us again this month to talk about what they are seeing in commodity markets, the pressures on supply chains as they follow prices through the supply chain from raw materials to delivered goods, and what the price shifts look like by region and commodity.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

John Mothersole, Director - Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john

In today’s episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province (something we have been watching this year https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/terrorism-mozambiques-cabo-delgado-data.html) and the longer term implications of the ‘force majeure’ Total declared when it cancelled its contracts with local subcontractors, withdrew all its staff, and announced at least a year of delay to the key Afungi LNG project. Our analysts provide the background of the insurgency, the response from the energy industry, and the implication for economic recovery and debt sustainability going forward.

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Eva Renon, Senior Country Risk Analyst, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva.html

Langelihle Malimela, Senior country Risk Analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle

Roderick Bruce, Research and Analysis Associate Director, E&P Terms and Above-Ground Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/bruce-roderick

On the heels of Chad announcing it wanted to participate in the IMF-G20 debt restructuring initiatives, our Africa experts sit down to talk about the future of the CEMA region – from an economic and country risk perspective. Will Chad’s move spur other countries in the region in the same direction? Join us for an overview of the region, a deep dive into the monetary issues, and what lies ahead for the security of the region.

Read more about the G20- IMF initiatives https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/imf-conditionality-after-the-covid19-pandemic.html

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea

Eva Renon, Senior Country Risk Analyst, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/renon-eva.html

Archbold Macheka, Economist, Sub Saharan Africa https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/macheka-archbold

Transportation issues are compounding an already troubled supply chain as demand for goods outpaces supply around the globe. This is hurting procurement on cost and inventory as “just in time delivery” is stretched to the breaking point. Experts from our procurement and transportation teams sit down to take a look at which geographies and industries have been hit the hardest and answer the questions we all want to know: how bad is it really and how long with this last?

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

Paul Bingham, Director, Transportation Consulting https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/bingham-paul

With the rise of COVID-19 cases in India filling the news, our analysts take a look at what is unfolding on the ground and then provide some analysis of the economic and risk implications going forward. This country-specific podcast is part of our special series that explores COVID-19 vaccine rollout and vaccine diplomacy around the globe.

Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay.html

Deepa Kumar, Deputy Head Country Risk, Asia-Pacific, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kumar-deepa

Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Principal Economist, Asia Pacific, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/luchnikava-schorsch-hanna.html

It’s a divided and disparate recovery story across the MENA region depending on each country’s ability to access and provide vaccines to their citizens. Researchers from our life sciences, country risk, and economics teams come together to discuss the specific risks and challenges felt around the region. They discuss medicine access and distribution, healthcare options, the role of Russian and Chinese vaccine diplomacy in the region, local manufacturing aspirations, the current outlook for economic recovery, and the risks facing the region in the wake of the pandemic.

Lindsay Newman (Moderator) Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay.html

Sacha Baggili, Senior Analyst, Middle East, Africa and Indian subcontinent, Life Sciences, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/baggili-sacha.html

Jack Kennedy, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/kennedy-jack-a.html

Ralf Wiegert, Associate Director, Economics, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/wiegert-ralf

Jihane Boudiaf, Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/boudiaf-jihane.html

Europe and the UK have experienced an uneven rollout of vaccines. In today’s episode, our country risk and life science experts come together to talk about supply chain challenges, heightened protectionist moments, enhanced regulatory reviews, and even strange vaccine bedfellows as some countries turn to Russia’s Sputnik vaccine to push along herd immunity.

Lindsay Newman (Moderator), Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay

Eoin Ryan, Senior Analyst, Life Sciences, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/ryan-eoin

Diego Iscaro, Senior European Economist, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/iscaro-diego

Dijedon Imeri, Senior Country Risk Analyst, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/imeri-dijedon

Learn more additional risk to vaccine rollouts: Vaccine hesitancy boosts risks from vaccine nationalism https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/vaccine-hesitancy-boosts-risks-from-vaccine-nationalism.html

The risks of vaccine nationalism https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/the-risk-of-vaccine-nationalism.html

Lumber prices are making headlines in the United States as they are sitting at a record high. Today’s episode, our lumber expert, Deni Koenhemsi, sits with John Anton from our pricing and purchasing team to talk about the pricing and availability of lumber. Some of the questions they tackle include why lumber is so expensive, if and when we may see some relief, and what the real risk is for things not going well going forward.

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john

Deni Koenhemsi, Construction materials analyst, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/koenhemsi-deni

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing a dearth of vaccines and will be reliant in 2021 on external vaccine supply, particularly through pooled procurement schemes. The WHO estimates that, at best, 30-35% of Africa's 1.3 billion population could be vaccinated in 2021. This slow rollout will result in strict lock-down measures and the economic knock-on effects will be felt across the region. In this episode, our economics and risk teams discuss everything from vaccine supply and rollout timelines. economic implications and recovery efforts, and finally vaccine diplomacy.

For a deeper dive, read our latest blog: The geopolitical implications of vaccine rollout programs across Sub-Saharan Africa https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/geopolitical-implications-vaccine-rollout-sub-saharan-africa.html

Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay.html Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea.html William Farmer, Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa, Country Risk, IHS Markithttps://ihsmarkit.com/experts/farmer-william.html

Join our Sub-Saharan Africa team in their discussion on the debt relief efforts being offered by the IMF and the G20 to the region. Is it enough? Will it really help beyond immediate relief? Is there more the international community could be doing? These are complex questions and there are many perspectives to take into account. Our team offers a background on the issue, define the relief allocations including SDRs and discuss if these are ways to really solve a country’s debt problems.

Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst Country Risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo.html

Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea.html

Chris Suckling, Principal Analyst, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/suckling-chris.html

Most of us discuss ECG at the corporate level, but what if we looked at the country level? Last year we launched a Sovereign ESG index to provide a quantitative picture of country-level risk – and this sits alongside our company-level analysis. In today’s episode, our Latin America experts will discuss the pressure ESG regulations and expectations puts on both companies and governments.

Speakers; Alexia Ash, Director, Country Risk Quantification, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ash-alexia.html

Ailsa Rosales, Country Risk Analyst, Latin America and Caribbean, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/rosales-ailsa.html

Johanna Maris Senior Analyst, Latin America, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/marris-johanna.html

Carla Selman, Senior Research Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/selman-carla.html

With steel prices hitting record highs, and supplies being tight in many regions, our Director of Pricing & Purchasing, John Anton, sits with us to discuss the continued mismatch between demand recovery and production restarts. John discusses the impacts to construction and manufacturing with delays, deferred projects, and in many cases missed budgets. What lies ahead? Is there any good news? Join us and get the full picture.

John Anton, Director, Pricing & Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

The Asia-Pacific region is well-placed in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine rollout, with both India and China having sufficient domestic innovation and production capacity to be pivotal vaccine suppliers. Vaccine rollouts in most Asia-Pacific countries will likely extend into 2022 given supply constraints, logistical difficulties, the geographical spread of rural populations, and shortages of trained healthcare professionals. Join Lindsay Newman, Bree Neff, Sophie Cairns, and Deepa Kumar in today’s episode as they discuss the geopolitics of the vaccine rollout, vaccine development, and what this means for the recovery timeline.

Read more about our vaccine coverage: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/geopolitical-implications-vaccine-rollout-asia-pacific.html

Dr. Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markithttps://ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay.html

Bree Neff, Director, Economics - Asia Pacific, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/neff-bree.html

Sophie Cairns, Senior Research Analyst, Life Sciences, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/cairns-sophie.html

Deepa Kumar, Senior Analyst – Asia-Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/kumar-deepa.html

Join John Anton and Patrick Warren from our pricing and purchasing team as they talk about the increases in packaging costs in the first half of 2021. After a decrease in costs and 2019 and a flat 2020, box and board is experiencing a second price increase in 4 months. Driven mainly by increased demand from online shopping, box demand is at all-time record levels. Add in some supply side pressures around labor shortages, wage increases due to overtime, transportation disruptions, and even cyber-attacks and you have an interesting story around what’s unfolding now and what’s to come later in the year.

Patrick Warren, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing

John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

2020 was the worst year for the global economy in a long time. And the same can be said for the Chinese economy. In today’s episode, we join our China economics team, Todd Lee, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi to understand how strong China’s economic recovery was in late 2020, what were the key drivers, and what we can expect in the Lunar New Year of the Ox.

Speakers Rajiv Biswas (Moderator), Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Todd Lee, Chief China Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lee-todd.html

Yating Xu, Senior Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/yating-xu.html

Lei Yi, Economist, IHS https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/yi-lei.html

Read more about the links between economic recovery and consumer spend in China https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/chinas-consumer-market-recovery-under-covid19-pandemic.html

One of the many fallouts from the Covid-19 pandemic is disruptions to global supply chains. As we start to restructure supply chains, our Sub Saharan Africa team digs into what this could mean for the region. At first blush, SSA seems unlikely to benefit from this diversification drive. However, under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) there will be some opportunities.

Natznet Tesfay (Moderator), Executive Director, Africa, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/tesfay-natznet.html

Thea Fourie, Team Lead Sub-Saharan Africa Economics, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea.html

Archbold Macheka, Economist, Sub Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/macheka-archbold.html

William Farmer, Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/farmer-william.html

Alisa Strobel, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strobel-alisa.html

Dr. Marie Lechler, Data Analytics Principal, Applied Intelligence, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lechler-maria.html

In today’s episode, we explore the operational, security, and political challenges Latin American countries will face as they roll out their vaccine programs. Our analysts, Lindsay Newman, Ewa Oliveira da Silva, Rafael Amiel, and Johanna Marris, address the health crisis, the economic constraints and impacts, and the political and security issues that could stand in the way of both health and economic recovery.

Dr. Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay.html Moderator

Ewa Oliveira da Silva, Senior Analyst, Life Sciences, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/oliveira-da-silva-ewa.html Health crisis for the region- the timeline, the supply risks, and unknowns about the vaccines themselves.

Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America & Caribbean Economics, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/amiel-rafael.html Economic constraints that governments are facing to procure these vaccines. What options are available to them?

Johanna Marris, Senior Country Risk Analyst, Latin America, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/marris-johanna.html

While bank defaults are not uncommon in Mainland China, a few recent defaults have triggered a strong response. What makes these different? Well, it’s not the size of the default but rather the high-profile nature of the companies themselves that has created a stir. In today’s episode, our experts from our China economics and banking risk teams, Rajiv Biswas, Angus Lam, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi, discuss implications of these recent bond defaults and the impact on the wider global banking sector.

Read more about recent bond defaults in China: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/chinas-bond-defaults.html

Rajiv Biswas, Chief Asia Pacific Economist https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Angus Lam, Senior Economist, Banking Risk https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lam-angus.html

Yating Xu, Principal Economist, China https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/yating-xu.html

Lei Yi, Economist, China https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/yi-lei.html

With the worst economic contraction in recent history (-1.5%) in 2020, the Asia Pacific region is poised for 5.7% y/y growth in 2021—that is, assuming we see a successful vaccine roll out and a slowing in Covid-19 cases. But, recovery is not without its bumps. 2021 promises to be a year of uncertainty and the of pace of the recovery will be differentiated across the region. Join our Chief Asia Pacific Economist, Rajiv Biswas, in today’s episode to gain an understanding of the regional economic recovery. He provides a deep look at China, Japan, and India; discusses sector recovery; and most critically, provides his analysis of the impact the restructuring of the manufacturing supply chain will have on future growth.

Rajiv Biswas https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

In today's episode, our pricing and purchasing experts, John Anton, John Mothersole, and Sophie Malin discuss the continued shortages being felt across material production and labor markets due to Covid-19 lockdowns and disease progression. John Mothersole talks about the growing frustrations being felt due to consistent disruptions across mining, lumber, and more critically semiconductors which will have a knock-on effect on additional industries.

When the conversation turns to disruptions to cargo and air shipping, Sophie offers her analysis on global labor shortages – specifically the differences in demand for labor in service industries vs manufacturing and construction. And of course, no discussion can be complete without discussing issues around illness, priority access to vaccines, and policy.

John Mothersole https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john.html

John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Sophie Malin https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/malin-sophie.html

Register for Geostrategy 2021 here: https://ihsmarkit.com/events/2021-geopolitical-conference/overview.html

We have entered 2021 with the pandemic still in full swing. While many of us held out hope for an end to the disease spread and a fast effective vaccination roll-out, its not our current reality. Gustav Ando, who runs our Life Sciences practice, provides us with answers to the questions we are all asking: What don't we know about the vaccines, what we do know about the the new new strains of the disease, and what's really happening with the roll out of the vaccines.

Did you enjoy the podcast? We are covering this with our COVID-19 R&D Tracker: Vaccine rollouts, dosing controversies and new strains here: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/covid19-rd-tracker-vaccine-rollouts-dosing-controversies-strain.html

Register for Geostrategy 2021 here: https://ihsmarkit.com/events/2021-geopolitical-conference/overview.html

In our first pricing focused podcast of 2021, John Anton talks about the very tumultuous steel market. While demand not back to pre-pandemic levels, prices are higher. And while this is not just the case for steel, it's particularly bad for steel with prices 30-50% higher than they were in August of 2020. John talks through the current state, why, and when buyers should start to feel a little relief.

John Anton, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Geostrategy 2021 Virtual Conference | 2-3 February https://ihsmarkit.com/events/2021-geopolitical-conference/overview.html

Thefts, heists, blockades-sounds like an edge of your seat movie, but rather it's the realities of cargo movement across Mexico. In today's episode, join Johanna Marris and John Raines as they discuss the actual realities of supply chain complications in Mexico, the opportunities for investing wisely in Mexico, and the impact of this cargo disruption on the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccines.

Recorded December 2020.

John Raines https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html

Johanna Marris https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/marris-johanna.html

Despite unprecedented macroeconomic declines and fears of widespread banking sector stress as COVID-19 lockdowns first went into place in early 2020, financial sectors globally held up remarkably well, but will that stay the case in 2021? Our banking risk experts, Alyssa Grzelak and Greta Butaviciute sit down with Brian Lawson to talk through the top trends to watch for in 2021. Want a bit more? Read our Top Ten Themes to Watch in 2021 in Global Banking blog post: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/top-ten-themes-global-banking-2021.html

Brian Lawson (moderator) https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Greta Butaviciute, Senior Economist, Banking Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/butaviciute-greta.html

Alyssa Grzelak, Economic Director, Banking Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/grzelak-alyssa.html

After a tumultuous end of 2020 what can we expect going into 2021 for commodity pricing? Our commodity experts, Michael Dall and John Anton discuss how Covid-19, markets, shortages and more will impact pricing for chemical, plastics, and metals in 2021.

John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Michael Dall https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/dall-michael.html

Indonesia, the biggest economy in SE Asia and had been growing at a rapid pace. However, it has been suffering terribly since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and will experience a significant recession. Angus Lam and Rajiv Biswas sit down to discuss the banking sector, policies and laws put in place to support the sector and boost lending, and the possibility for mergers and consolidations for the sector. They wrap up with a look forward to 2021 for the country and the sector outlook for the next 2-3 years.

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Angus Lam, Senior Economist, Banking Risk https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lam-angus.html

John Anton and John Mothersole join us for another wide-ranging discussion around the global metal’s markets. They start off discussing the impact of the recent US election on the aluminum and steel pricing, move to the state of the markets, fundamentals, and consumption, and even discuss disruptions and cyclones. If you need to understand metals, you don’t want to miss this episode.

John Anton, Associate Director – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

John Mothersole - Research, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john.html

Last week the IMF and finance ministers from the G20 made some ostensibly landmark decisions affecting the ability of developing countries to access financing and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Join Carla Selman, Senior Analyst for Latin America, and Dr. Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst for sub-Saharan Africa as they discuss the implications for debt distressed countries.

Chris Suckling, Principal Analyst, Political Risk, IHS Markit (Moderator) https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/suckling-chris.html

Carla Selman, Senior Analyst for Latin America, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/selman-carla.html

Theo Acheampong, Senior Analyst for sub-Saharan Africa, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/acheampong-theo.html

Seven or so months into the global pandemic, and the ensuing economic slowdown, we are finally seeing some positive movement.

While September numbers indicated another small slowing, Chris Williamson, our chief business economist, uses our nowcasting PMI data to talk about some interesting developments as the economy pushes towards a slow recovery.

While, indeed, many sectors are still in decline, including tourism, (See our blog post on this topic: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/european-tourism-lag-recovery-economy.html) some of the leaders in recovery may surprise you. In today’s episode, Chris tells us what’s happening, what to look for, and what this all means.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/williamson-chris.html

Join our capital markets specialist, Brian Lawson, as he talks about the recent developments in the sector. In today's podcast, he focuses on three key topics: whats going on in the US equity markets, the state of emerging markets, and the rapid development of ESG issuance, and the likely trends in the sector.

Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Due to closures and potential job losses due to COVID-19, governments across Europe have responded with support policies to try curb the negative influences of unemployment, furloughs, and underemployment. Sophie Malin, who focuses on European wages for our pricing and purchasing team, addresses the employment schemes put in place by the UK, Germany, and France.

Sophie Malin https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/malin-sophie.html Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit

Rajiv Biswas, our chief Asia-Pacific economist, talks about what he expects for 2021 in the wake of a horrific downturn. He also addresses disruptions to industrial production and supply chains across the region with a deeper look at what is happening in China. Are we seeing light at the end of the tunnel?

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

The silver market has seen some strong action lately. Join KC Chang and John Anton as they discuss what has caused the run-up price, what does that mean for the future, and where we see opportunities for buyers.

John Anton, Associate Director – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

KC Chang, Senior Economist – Non Ferrous Metals, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/chang-kc.html

Since hitting bottom in April, we are now seeing an astonishing 250% increase in lumber price—an increase not being seen in other building materials like steel and other base metals. Deni Koenhemsi, a principal economist in our Pricing & Purchasing service, discusses the dramatic increase, what's driving this rebound and how long it will last.

Deni Koenhemsi Principal Economist – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/koenhemsi-deni.html

John Anton (Moderator) Associate Director – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Join Angus Lam, a senior economist for our Banking Risk Service as he discusses new banking policies taking hold in India. While India is poised to be a competitive player in the region, its banking sector has lagged. He provides historical context and then discusses the newest policies and how they could influence the sector going forward.

Angus Lam https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lam-angus.html

The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 31 January 2020. A multitude of issues remain to be worked through and negotiated. With both sides distracted by the COVID-19 virus crisis, talks to determine the future UK-EU relationship have failed to make any significant progress. Join John Raines, Jan Gerhard, and Raj Badiani as they discuss the highly ambitious time frame, the impact to economy and supply chains, and whether they can work through a fully-fledged trade agreement.

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html

Jan Gerhard, Senior Analyst Country Risk Europe, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/gerhard-jan.html

Raj Badiani, Economics Director, Europe, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/badiani-raj.html

Join experts from both our Economics & Country Risk and Maritime & Trade teams as they provide an overview of the situation in Lebanon in the wake of the explosion. Our team walks you through the damage to the port and how many vessels have been damaged or destroyed; how much this damages Lebanon's ability to import, even if it didn't have the dollar crisis in play; and the impact to state failure risks and economy. We close out with discussion around what this means for Lebanon's neighbors and civil war risks.

Columb Strack, Principal Analyst - Global Cargo Risk, Economics & Country Risk https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strack-columb.html

George Devereese, Risk & Compliance Product Manager, Maritime & Trade https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/devereese-george.html

Firas Modad, Director Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/modad-firas.html

Rebecka Freeman, Country Risk Analyst, Economics & Country Risk

Ralf Wiegert, Director – Consulting, Economics & Country Risk https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/wiegert-ralf.html

One month after the enactment of the new USMCA trade agreement our experts look at what the agreement really means for industry, labor, and politics. A Big Deal? Or NAFTA 2? It’s both! No tariffs and no quotas (with a few exceptions) is status quo, but there are a few changes that bring the agreement up-to-date and that also have an eye-raising impact around labor. Spend 20 minutes with John Raines, John Anton, Johanna Marris, and Emily Crowley as they walk through these changes.

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit

https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html John Anton, Associate Director – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Emily Crowley, Associate Director – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily.html

Johanna Marris, a research analyst with our Country Risk team

IHS Markit expects India’s real GDP growth for fiscal year (FY) 2020–21 (ending March 2021) will contract 6.3%, as a result of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The country’s strict nationwide lockdown to battle the spread of COVID-19 infections shut down most of the economy for nearly two months, and while the government has taken steps to unwind lockdown restrictions, large portions of major urban/economic areas remain under strict containment measures because of rising infection rates. Join our Chief Asia Economist, Rajiv Biswas, as he walks us through the current economic outlook and what’s coming next.

Rajiv Biswas, Executive Director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Nirmal Shani, Country Manager & Executive Director - South Asia; CERAWeek

The convergence of economic dislocation, political instability, and inter-regional power struggles are driving unrest across the region. Jack Kennedy and Firas Modad from our country risk team come together to discuss the underlying risks and challenges driving the growing political instability and how this may impact proxy countries. Is 2020 MENA's pivotal year?

Jack Kennedy https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/kennedy-jack-a..html Firas Modad https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/modad-firas.html

In this episode, Brian Lawson, our capital markets expert, provides an overview of the recent developments for emerging market borrowers. He provides some examples of recent issuance which offer a wide variety of perpetual and hybrid debt offerings and also looks at the state-of-play for sovereign debt rescheduling.

Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

In today’s episode, John Anton and John Mothersole sit down to talk ferrous and non-ferrous metals. They discuss the divergent story between copper and aluminum vs steel, the impact of mine shutdowns, and even touch a little on petroleum. A must-listen if you are buying steel or copper.

John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

John Mothersole https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john.html

Today we discuss banking sector vulnerability in emerging markets, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Alyssa Grzelak, Director, Banking Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/grzelak-alyssa.html

Put Banking Risk to work for you: https://ihsmarkit.com/forms/contactinformation.html?fid=337734

Risk incidents in the US ramped up considerably over the last few months as has the news coverage. Sometimes it’s hard to understand what’s really unfolding and what it means for communities and people. In today’s episode, we focus on the recent civil unrest incidents in the United States; more specifically, we talk about how we cover these protests for our clients, where our data comes from, how we ensure it’s accurate and valuable, and how the data plays into our overall analysis of regional unrest. Please join John Raines, Justin Valentino, and Hugo Foster as we discuss why data is critical to find out what’s really happening on the ground.

John Raines, Ph.D., Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html

Hugo Foster, Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Applied Intelligence, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/foster-hugo.html

Justin Valentino, Senior Analyst, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/valentino-justin.html

On June 9 the ICMA published voluntary guidelines for Sustainability-Linked Bonds (SLBs). These bonds now have some suggested guidelines for issuers to meet including pre-defined sustainability or environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives and targets.

In today's episode, John Raines and Brian Lawson walk you through what this all means for investors: the differences between these guidelines and the ICMA's Green Bond Principles set forth in 2014, how these new guidelines will affect the appetite for issuers, and even delve into how the current pandemic is impacting these types of investments.

John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html

Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

As countries and organizations start to reopen, the question top-of-mind for many is when will a vaccine, or other treatment, be available? Many hold out hope that a vaccine will be the magic bullet — it’s not that simple. Our life science’s experts Gustav Ando and Milena Izmirlieva spend todays’ episode discussing the challenges and opportunities for developing a vaccine as well as the alternative therapies that are being tested in tandem to alleviate many of the symptoms of COVID-19. How has the industry risen to the challenge and what does this mean for future R&D?

Gustav Ando, Vice President, Industry Services & Life Sciences, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ando-gustav.html Milena Izmirlieva, Director, Life Sciences, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/izmirlieva-milena.html

Strong leadership during a time of crisis is critical to an organization’s success—more so when your organization is a country, and you are the leading millions of people through both an economic and public health crisis. Today, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has crippled world economies and has left hundreds-of-thousands dead, leaders are stepping into uncharted territory. Some will rise to the occasion bringing their citizens along with them through this veritable storm. Others will falter and bluster and wind up losing their way. Join John Raines, Deepa Kumar, Blanka Kolenikova, and Carlos Caicedo, as they view some of our most visible leaders through the lens of effective leadership—who has it, who doesn’t? What does that mean for future political, economic, and health security around the globe?

Connect with our speakers: John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html

Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Latin America Country Risk https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/caicedo-carlos.html

Deepa Kumar, Senior Analyst – Asia-Pacific Country Risk https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/kumar-deepa.html

Blanka Kolenikova, Principal Analyst – Europe & CIS, Country Risk https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/kolenikova-blanka.html

Economic shockwaves have intensified across the globe during April and early May. For the Asia Pacific region, this means that the recession will only hit its trough in Q2 with momentum improving in the second half of the year. In today's episode, our Chief Asia Economist, Rajiv Biswas, discusses the economic health of the region, which countries are poised for recovery, and which have a long way to go. While countries hit early are starting to come back online, and economies across the region are slowing moving in an upward trajectory, he is quick to caution that even though growth rates are expected to strengthen the overall pace of growth is very slow. Join him as he explores regional differences, sectors most impacted, and what we can expect moving forward.

Speaker: Rajiv Biswas, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Today’s episode is a timely discussion between Emily Crowley and Sophie Malin from our pricing and purchasing team. Building off their recently published construction and manufacturing wage studies, which looks at changes across the globe by sector, the two talk through what’s happening around the globe for wages, unemployment, and sector-specific challenges. They set the stage talking about the unemployment numbers for March (U.S. with depression-level numbers and Spain with numbers that are their largest yet to name two) and then take a deeper look into how specific sectors and countries are responding.

Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing & Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily.html

Sophie Malin, Pricing & Purchasing, IHS Markit

In today's episode, Gabrielle Ventura, an economist for our Banking Risk Service, discusses the fall of the Lebanese banking sector. She takes us through the government's financial sector restructuring plan, the escalation of violent protests in Lebanon, and how the loss of global confidence amidst the pandemic catalyzed the crisis situation.

Read more: https://ecrstore.ihsmarkit.com/collections/covid-19-reports/products/banking-risk-rating-outlooks-revised-on-downside-risks-to-financial-stability

Speaker: Gabrielle Ventura, Economist, Banking Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ventura-gabrielle.html

In today’s episode, our economic and country risk experts look at two aspects of how countries are being impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. We talk about how to systematically measure and compare the vulnerability of countries dealing with the disease and then how the capital markets are affecting country risk in.

Speakers: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

John Raines https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html

Marie Lechler https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lechler-maria.html

The impact of COVID-19, and what it means for the future of the supply chain.

Speakers: John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

John Mothersole https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john.html

Learn more: https://ihsmarkit.com/products/supply-management-solution.html

Our capital markets expert, Brian Lawson, takes a look at this week's developments from the scale of the increase in debt burdens and government response to what risks some of those financing techniques may bring.

Speaker: Brian Lawson ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Read more: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/economics-country-risk.html

This episode looks at how the dual shocks of COVID-19, and falling energy, and natural resource prices are pushing Emerging Market countries towards default - and how the IMF and World Bank plan to alleviate these pressures.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

In this week's episode two of our esteemed APAC analysts discuss the escalating economic shockwaves from the Covid-19 pandemic. As governments have been imposing increasing travel bans and lockdowns worldwide, the Asia-Pacific tourism and travel industry has been caught in its worst crisis ever recorded in modern times.

Speakers: Rajiv Biswas https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Robert O'Brien

Our experts come together to discuss some of the issues, challenges, and potential opportunities surrounding the European Green Deal and the impact Covid-19 may have on progress.

Speakers: Laurence Allan https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/allan-laurence.html Steven Knell https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/knell-steven.html Dijedon Imeri https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/imeri-dijedon.html Petya Barzilska https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/barzilska-petya.html

With the unprecedented business interruptions caused by the outbreak and spread of COVID-19, our experts provide our perspective on the global economic, industry, and financial market developments.

Speakers: Chris Varvares, CBE https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/varvares-chris.html

Chris Fenske https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/fenske-chris.html

Ken Wattret https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/wattret-ken.html

Ken Matheny, Ph.D. https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/matheny-ken.html

For our first podcast focused on the healthcare industry, join Milena Izmelieva and Eoin Ryan from our life sciences team as they discuss our Q1 healthcare forecast.

After an overview of where we are and what Q2 is looking like, they turn their eyes towards four major markets: Ireland, Netherlands, the United States, and China.

Some highlights: - The US and China "phase one" trade deal - Public spending on healthcare in Ireland in light of election results - Higher healthcare spending growth in the Netherlands for 2020 and beyond.

Speakers: Milena Izmelieva, Director, Life Sciences Research, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/izmirlieva-milena.html

Eoin Ryan, Senior analyst https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ryan-eoin.html

The recent escalation of protests in Lebanon has highlighted protesters' frustration with the Central Bank of Lebanon (Banque du Liban: BDL) and commercial banks, sparking major announcements by the Lebanese government and two individual banks. Gabrielle Ventura, an economist for our Banking Risk Service provides insights into the situation and what comes next.

Speaker: Gabrielle Ventura https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ventura-gabrielle.html

Our pricing and purchasing team provide insights into what the Covid-19 outbreaks means to labor, employment, ad the supply chain. Sophie Malin discusses the disruption to production starts in china fed by lower return rates of migrant workers. In addition, she addresses which sectors will feel the long-term losses the hardest—think transportation. Emily Crowley expands on the global disruption looking at how this can and will impact US production lines with a slowdown in shipping trade flows. However, she notes that this is not the only drag to the US supply chain and talks us through the knock-on effects of the Boeing 737 Max shut down and changes to the minimum wage.

Speakers: John Anton, Associate Director – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing & Purchasing, IHS Markit

Emily Crowley, Principal Economist – Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily.html

As COVID-19 concerns grow, conditions in markets have moved in a less-positive direction. This week, our capital markets expert, Brian Lawson, looks at how credit spreads have shifted sharply as corporate activity has changed in light of the spread of the virus. He discusses the direct influence that lost production and supply chain disruptions are having. But it's not all bad. In the second half of this episode, he turns to look at green investments including Tokyo electric power, Hong Kong's green sector expansion, and Egypt's plans to promote the sale of green bonds.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Johanna Marris, a research analyst with our Country Risk team, provides insight into the recent announcements that both the incumbent and previous presidents of Bolivia plan to participate in upcoming elections increases risks of national violent protests from May 2020.

Speaker: Johanna Marris

This week, our capital markets expert, Brian Lawson, looks at a week filled with highs and lows. He starts with the highlights that include some very strong deals as well as improvements to the Icelandic banking market. He then turns to the less positive news around Argentine bond spreads and their extensive debt issue as well as what's unfolding in the Lebanon banking system.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

You can read more about the Lebanese banking crisis in a recent piece by our banking risk expert, Gabrielle Ventura. https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/lebanon-banking-crisis.html

Our capital markets expert, Brian Lawson, takes a look at this week's developments. A highlight is the tremendous appetite investors have for riskier debt in order to generate solid results. He takes us around the globe looking at these deals and how they are performing.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Released: 14 February 2020

We have heard a lot about the USMCA but do we really have a good handle on the agreement and what it means? In this episode, our experts take a closer look. Michael Konidaris, from our US team, talks about how the USMCA is different from the old NAFTA agreement, what industries and markets we should watch under the agreement, and how it will impact boarder states with Canada and Mexico and the US Economy. Stephanie Brinley, from our automotive group, talks positives and negatives to the automotive industry and why some of the big headline provisions may not really be a big deal. However, costs to smaller shops and end consumers could increase due to some of the new provisions. We wrap up with Carlos Cardenas, the director of our risk desk for Latin America, talking about the risks for Mexico that have been mitigated and the possible political and economic challenges related to labor and migration.

Speakers John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/raines-john.html

Michael Konidaris, Pricipal Economist, US Economics, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/konidaris-michael.html

Stephani Brinley, Principal Automotive Analyst, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/brinley-stephanie.html

Carlos Cardenas, Director, Latin America Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/cardenas-carlos.html

Recorded: 29 January 2020

In this episode, regional economists Tom Jackson and Heather Upton discuss the causes and effects of slowing population growth across the United States. They look at the effects of a rapid downshift in immigration, decreased birth rates, increased mortality rates, and changes in regional migration on economic growth prospects.

Speakers: Tom Jackson and Heather Upton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/jackson-tom.html

Released: 10 February 2020

In this week's episode, Brian Lawson our Senior Economic and Financial Consultant discusses some of the larger emerging market deals including Poland which is the first emerging market issuer of negative-yielding term debt.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Recorded: 7 February 2020

As expected, this week's supply was curtailed by the Lunar New Year holiday, with equity markets also adversely affected by the potential impacts of China's Coronavirus outbreak on economic growth. Brian Lawson our Senior Economic and Financial Consultant walks through this week's deals.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Released: 30 January 2020

On January 9, one day after the downing of Ukrainian airliner flight 752, our team released analysis to our clients that indicated that the plane had been accidentally shot down by an IRGC-operated SA-15 surface-to-air missile. Members of our risk team, Paul McGrath, Jack Kennedy, and Columb Strack take you through how they uncovered what really happened – from early indicators of a regional escalation to image analysis and on-the-ground network data. Go behind the research to see the how, when, and what of our risk methodology.

Speakers: Paul McGrath, Director, County Risk Research and Analysis Jack Kennedy, Senior Analyst, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/kennedy-jack-a..html Columb Strack, Principal Analyst, Country Risk– Middle East and North Africa https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/strack-columb.html

Released: 27 January 2020

Will Farmer, a country risk analyst covering sub-Saharan Africa, provides a quick look at government instability in Kenya. President Kenyatta dismissed his rival’s ally from Cabinet Secretary post for the Ministry of Agriculture as succession politics intensifies; corruption investigations likely. He provides short-term and long-term implications.

Will Farmer, Analyst, Sub-saharan Africa https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/farmer-william.html

Released: 26 January 2020

Our top economists sit down to discuss how they put together our nowcasts, and short-, mid-, and long-term forecasts. They talk about how they approach the raw data and then dive into the value of utilizing nowcasts. Spoiler alert: Using a nowcast is critical to getting an accurate forecast and model.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/williamson-chris.html

Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html

Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/wattret-ken.html

Chris Varvares, Co-Head, US Economics https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/varvares-chris.html

Released: 26 January 2020

In this week's episode of Capital Markets Weekly, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Brian Lawson, talks about five sizeable emerging markets deals that were sold successfully on 21 January, with Pemex particularly-successful.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Released: 25 January 2020

Rajiv Biswas, our Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, sits down with Robert O’Brien and details the significance of the deal as we enter the year of the rat, They cover economics, supply chains, and more in their conversation.

Speakers: Rajiv Biswas and Robert O'Brien https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Released: 21 January 2020

Now that the USMACA is going into force, our Pricing & Purchasing experts, John Anton and Emily Crowley sat down to discuss what it really means to labor costs and manufacturing.

Speakers: John Anton and Emily Crowley https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily.html

Released: 20 January 2020

The Indonesian government plans to submit a “job creation” bill to liberalize the labor market. Our analyst, Anton Alifandi, discusses why the government is pushing this bill forward and the likely protests that will follow.

Speaker: Anton Alifandi

Released: 17 January 2020

Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Brian Lawson, provides his thoughts on the latest deals and how economic conditions may affect markets. This week he talks through last week's record Euro-issuance and details how markets remain highly-active with six sovereign syndicated bond deals.

Speaker: Brian Lawson ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Released: 17 January 2020

Following the recent killings and retaliatory strikes, the continuation of contained confrontation has become the most likely path. Our experts, Firas Modad, Ege Seckin, and Jack Kennedy examine the short- and long-term risks to aviation, marine in the region. We also provide the possible indicators and consequences for an escalation to all-out war.

Speakers: Firas Modad, Ege Seckin, and Jack Kennedy https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/modad-firas.html https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/seckin-ege.html https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/kennedy-jack-a..html

Released: 14 January 2020

Despite wobbles in growth due to special factors, expansion continues at slightly above-trend pace. The Co-Head of our US Economics team, Chris Varvares, goes over the most recent numbers and looks at what's driving the US economy.

Speaker: Chris Varvares https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/varvares-chris.html

Released: 13 January 2020

With know growing downside risks what lies ahead for Turkey? Our analysts, Andrew Birch and Alyssa Grzelak talk about the risks that are hiding in plain sight for the region including the banking sector, political instabilities, and repeat shocks. What will change investor sentiment?

Speakers: Andrew Birch and Alyssa Grzelak https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/birch-andrew.html

Released: 13 January 2020

During the first main week of trading in 2020, bond market supply has been highly-active. Despite Iran-related regional instability, Israel raised a record USD3 billion sale attracting USD20 billion of demand, while in Europe, Ireland, Slovenia and Portugal have all issued successfully. Our Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Brian Lawson, provides insights into the latest deals and how economic conditions may affect markets.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Released: 10 January 2020

Juan Guaidó, who is recognized by the United States as the interim president of Venezuela, was reappointed on 5 January as head of the 167-seat National Assembly for the 2020 legislative term by 100 lawmakers. Our principal risk analyst for the region, Diego Moya-Ocampos, discusses how Venezuela’s ruling PSUV party’s move to establish a parallel legislative board to the one recognized by the US and most EU and Latin American countries increases the risks of sanctions and policy paralysis.

Speaker: Diego Moya-Ocampos https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/moya-ocampos-diego.html

Released: 8 January 2020

UK election boosts short-term stability, but longer-run Brexit uncertainties remain unresolved.

Speaker: Laurence Allen https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/allan-laurence.html

Released: 16 December 2019

In this episode, our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, discusses our top-10 predictions for the global economy in 2020. He will examine the elevated risks to the global economy from ongoing trade tensions and political upheavals and assess the risk of a recession in the next year.

Speaker: Nariman Behravesh https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/behravesh-nariman.html

Released: 17 December 2019

Chief Asia Economist, Rajiv Biswas, talks to us about what's next for Southeast Asia after a year rocked by trade talks between the US and China. He looks at the contagion effects on other economies, the manufacturing sector, and long-term investments.

Speaker: Rajiv Biswas https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Released: 10 December 2019

What unfolded over the holiday weeks at the end of 2019 and the start of 2020? Our Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Brian Lawson, provides insights into the latest deals and how economic conditions may affect markets.

Speaker: Brian Lawson https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/lawson-brian.html

Released: 3 January 2020

We examine the classic signs of overheating - accelerating inflation, rapid GDP growth, credit expansion, rising real interest rates and tightening labor markets - and the impact of capital inflows and short-term debt.

Speaker: Andrew Birch https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/birch-andrew.html

Released: 25 June 2019

Find out how the creation of the new free economic zone on Mexico's northern border with the United States will impact your organization's operational costs.

Speaker: Emily Crowley https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/crowley-emily.html

Released: 14 March 2019

How much longer will the buyers’ market last? John Anton, Associate Director with our Pricing and Purchasing team, shares insights from the latest steel report.

Speaker: John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Released: 10 July 2019

Our Chief Asia economist, Rajiv Biswas, talks about the 6th largest economy in the world- India. He discusses the political and economic influences, including the slowdown of the manufacturing sector, that will drive the Indian economy in 2020.

Speaker: Rajiv Biswas https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html

Released: 6 December 2019

In 2019 it was a buyers’ market in the metals supply chain. We look forward to 2020 to see if the metals supply chain will stay favorable for category managers or take a turn if the economy improves.

Speakers: John Mothersole and John Anton https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john.html https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john.html

Released: 5 December 2019