Space – NSI: Recent Episodes
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“SMA Space Panel Discussion: Outer Space; Earthly Escalation? Chinese Perspectives on Space Operations and Escalation” Speakers: Cheng, D. (Heritage Foundation); Garretson, P. (US Air Force); Goswami, N. (Independent Analyst); MacDonald, B. (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies); Weeden, B. (Secure World Foundation); Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology / Georgetown University)
Date: 30 October 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a panel discussion focused on a recently-published white paper as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. Presenters included Mr. Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Lt Col Peter Garretson (US Air Force), Dr. Namrata Goswami (Independent Analyst), Mr. Bruce MacDonald (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies), Dr. Brian Weeden (Secure World Foundation), and Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology / Georgetown University).
To begin the presentation, Dr. Wright stated that the strategic environment in space is changing; it is not the same as it was during the Cold War, or even four years ago. He then detailed how managing escalation in space operations differs from managing escalation in other domains and explained how Chinese strategic thinking on space, escalation, and space escalation differs from US thinking. Next, Mr. MacDonald stated that the information that space assets provide is what makes space so important. He also stated that China is aware that the US’s space architecture has vulnerabilities and will likely look to exploit these vulnerabilities. Mr. Cheng then spoke about the differences between how China and the US think about fundamental space issues, highlighting that the US and China have differing interpretations of the meaning of “deterrence” and that this may lead to potential escalation on either side.
Lt Col Garretson continued the conversation by outlining nine important distinctions between US thinking and Chinese thinking. He also raised the possibility of China extending its Belt and Road Initiative into space. Next, Dr. Goswami spoke about China’s three primary goals in space: to acquire space-based resources, to use space as a diplomatic tool and component of its Belt and Road Initiative, and to utilize space for military advantage and asymmetric capabilities. To conclude, Dr. Weeden spoke about the development and utilization of norms in space and identified areas in which the US should focus its attention with regards to space norms.
Speaker Session Audio File Download the event booklet, white paper, and slides
MINDSPACE: Cognition in Space Operations Speaker: Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology / Georgetown University)
Date: 21 June 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology / Georgetown University) as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. Dr. Wright began by posing a question: “How do we create power in space?” He then stated that strategy is the art of creating power in space and that creating this power is fundamentally cognitive, requires both influence and control, and is dependent on the environment. Dr. Wright explained that US (space) decision makers need to think from the “outside in,” meaning that they should place the audience’s decision-making process at the heart of influence. They must also take culture seriously, for example, by considering if strategic thinking differs between China and the US due to cultural differences, and positing the key cognitive foundations that underlie deterrence, escalation management, offense, and defense in space. He then reviewed all of the key factors and associated cognitive foundations that are crucial for successful space operations. Dr. Wright concluded the session by discussing the role of space in gray zone conflicts.
Speaker Session Audio File Download Dr. Wright’s biography and slides
Missile Defenses as Anti-Satellite Weapons Speaker: Grego, L. (Union of Concerned Scientists)
Date: 1 June 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Laura Grego (Union of Concerned Scientists) as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. Dr. Grego first outlined the various types of missile defenses and explained that “because long-range ballistic missiles travel at speeds and altitudes comparable to those of satellites, missile defense systems designed to target them have inherent capabilities as ASAT weapons.” She then talked about two forms of kinetic energy interceptors and stated that existing US ground- and sea-based missile defense systems are “projected to grow significantly within the next decade and will, in theory, be able hold at risk nearly all Chinese and Russian satellites in low-earth orbits, which has serious implications for stability and security in space.” To conclude the session, Dr. Grego discussed potential solutions and strategies to diminish the problematic effects of missile defense development.
Speaker Session Audio File To receive the slides for this presentation, please email Ms. Nicole Peterson (npeterson@nsiteam.com).
Download Dr. Grego’s biography
SMA Space Panel- UK Perspectives Speakers: Bowen, B. (University of Leicester); Hilborne, M. (King’s College, London); Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology; Georgetown University)
Date: 17 May 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. The panelists for this session included Dr. Bleddyn Bowen (University of Leicester), Dr. Mark Hilborne (King’s College London), and moderator Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology; Georgetown University). Dr. Bowen first provided an overview of UK government and commercial space capabilities. He then explained the ways in which UK space doctrine is similar to that of the US and discussed how the UK has somewhat limited capabilities in space and is highly reliant on the US. Dr. Hilborne spoke about how UK doctrine on counter-space capabilities is very limited and how the Ministry of Defence (MOD) is hesitant to talk about space conflict and escalation management. The two panelists also offered their insights on how the UK would react to an American hostile action in space, and how the UK views kinetic and non-kinetic actions in space.
Speaker Session Audio File Download event booklet and one-page summary of Dr. Bowen’s recent work
Outer Space in the Media Space: How Russian and Chinese News Media Present the Commercialization and Militarization of the Space Domain Speaker: Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University)
Date: 9 May 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University) as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. Dr. Cooley briefly discussed the importance of narratives and explained that humans understand the world through stories; we form identity, agreement, and truth through storytelling. He proceeded to review the methodology his team used to analyze Russian and Chinese news media over the period of September 2017 to April 2018. Dr. Cooley then summarized Russia’s and China’s strategic narratives and space stories, highlighting what these stories reveal about these nations’ views towards space. To conclude the session, Dr. Cooley spoke about the important insights into these narrative frameworks that this work uncovered.
Speaker Session Audio File Download Dr. Cooley’s biography (along with report co-authors Dr. Randy Kluver’s (Oklahoma State University) and Dr. Ethan Stokes’s (University of Alabama) biographies), slides, and SMA space report
A Japanese Perspective on Space Deterrence and the Role of the US-Japan Alliance Speaker: Suzuki, K. (Public Policy Center at Hokkaido University, Japan)
Date: 1 May 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Kazuto Suzuki (Public Policy School of Hokkaido University, Japan) as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. Dr. Suzuki began the session by discussing the importance, indispensability, and vulnerability of space systems, as well as the difficulty of defending and deterring attacks on these systems. He also examined various types of vulnerabilities in space, including kinetic and non-kinetic, cyber and non-cyber ASAT attacks, and talked about how deterrence in space is very difficult. Dr. Suzuki concluded the session by explaining the role of the US-Japan alliance in space deterrence and stressing that deterrence in space cannot be achieved through space alone; it requires cross-domain deterrence.
Speaker Session Audio File Download Dr. Suzuki’s biography and slides
Effects of Investment on Pathways to Space Security Author | Editor: Stevenson, J. (NSI, Inc.)
[Q10] Does substantial investment and heavier commitment by both governments and commercial interests provide an avenue of approach for space ‘security’ and disincentive for kinetic military action? Summary Response Expert contributors wrestle with three factors in answering this question:
• Whether spending more will improve security and disincentivize kinetic action.
• Whether either or both commercial and government actors should spend more.
• If both, then whether commercial and government actors should do so independently or through partnership.
80% of the expert contributors affirm that increased spending would provide an avenue of approach for space security and disincentive for kinetic military action. The remaining 20% diverge on why they do not believe that spending would improve space security. Some contributors aver that the effect of spending on security and kinetic action is conditional on the type of adversary, or if the rules of the road resulting from increased investment reduced pathways toward inadvertent escalation, whereas others argue that increased spending increased the number of targets and increased the possibility of wasteful spending.
Almost every contributor supporting increased spending as a disincentive for kinetic military action argues that spending from both commercial and government actors would have the predicted positive effects, and that neither type of actors’ spending would be more efficacious. Only one contributor, Group Captain (Indian Air Force ret.) Ajey Lele of the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, suggests that one type of actors’ spending—state actors—would have greater impact.8 Finally, although most contributors did not specify whether they believe the positive effects from increased investment required partnership, or would occur even if commercial and government actors invested independently of each other, the few contributors that accounted for this parameter specifically mentioned public-private partnerships as the most effective vehicle for investment.
Download Publication
Nuclear Entanglement: The Growing Threat to Command and Control Speaker: Acton, J. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Date: 19 April 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. James Acton (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. Dr. Acton’s talk focused on two findings: 1) Nuclear weapons and their command-and-control (C3I) systems are becoming increasingly entangled with nonnuclear capabilities, and 2) many of the satellites used for nuclear C3I are dual-use and are increasingly becoming vulnerable to damage during a conflict involving either nuclear or nonnuclear weapons. Dr. Acton explained what entanglement is and discussed the four drivers of entanglement. He proceeded to talk about how entanglement is increasing the risk of “incidental” attacks, and he explained how these “incidental” attacks may lead to escalation. Finally, Dr. Acton discussed two basic options in an approach to risk reduction: reducing the likelihood of attack or reducing the consequences, two approaches that are often in contention with each other.
Speaker Session Audio File Download Dr. Acton’s biography and slides
Space-Based Missile Defense: Still Grounded Speaker: Hitchens, T. (Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland [CISSM])
Date: 29 March 2018
Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Theresa Hitchens (Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland [CISSM]) as a part of its SMA Space Speaker Series. Ms. Hitchens began by providing a history of US space-based missile defense. She then discussed the four categories of challenges to space-based missile defense (technical, practical, cost, and geostrategic) that have remained consistent since the creation of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). To conclude the session, Ms. Hitchens explained that because of these challenges to space-based interception (SBI) as well as the unchanging, negative potential effects on nuclear deterrence and space security, space-based missile defenses are still a bad idea.
Speaker Session Audio File Download Ms. Hitchens’s biography and slides