Ag Economic Insights : Recent Episodes
AEI Presents
The official podcast for AEI Premium subscribers. Join weekly as Brent and David review the biggest stories and uncertainties facing agriculture. It's the topics everyone is talking about, but Brent and David will tell you what nobody else will- their specific forecasts
David discusses early commodity sales numbers, takes a more in-depth look at which commodities are selling to China and in what quantities, provides an update on the soon-to-end 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge, and announces a few temporary changes to the regular video and podcast production schedules.
David discusses the current situation with Mexican imports of U.S. corn, the implications of a no-GMO and anti-glyphosate import policy, the change in corn use in Mexico, and how the Westcott-Jewison model applies to soybeans.
David discusses yield details from the newly released October WASDE report, trends in wheat pricing, and the relationship between corn and wheat prices, highlights the four remaining questions in the AEI Yield Forecast Challenge, and introduces the newest season of AEI Presents - Nothing Borrowed, Nothing Gained.
David discusses new articles, explores the causes of the reduction in planted soybean and corn acres from the March Perspective Planting report, and examines the pace of inflation.
David discusses recent articles, takes a closer look at what relative pricing means for fertilizer price ratios, explores trends in capital expenditures, and highlights how predicting the path of a hurricane uses forecasting that could be applied to other topics.
David discusses recent articles, changes in the interest rate, what long-term rates may mean for farmers, and shifting fertilizer prices.
David discusses details from the September WASDE Report, results of a deeper dive into government agricultural spending programs, and takes a look at net farm income.
David and Brent discuss gasoline price changes, commodity exports, crop yield predictions, sales of corn to China, and what makes a fragile game challenging to play
David discusses the tight grain stocks situation, U.S. and global ending stocks, ways to potentially fix a tight stock situation, and a likely outcome from the current tight stock situation.
David discusses new articles, Jeff Young's ongoing analysis of crop yields and recent application of the Westcott-Jewison model, a more complete look at changes to farmland values, and the newest episode of the Ag Interrupted podcast.
David soliloquizes about crop yield forecasts, yield uncertainty remaining at this point in the year, the state of the ongoing Ag Forecast Challenge, and new articles.
David soliloquizes about the yield and crop details from the August WASDE, changes to Indiana farmland values, and corn-soybean exchange rates with established and emerging economies.
David discusses the upcoming WASDE report's implications for yield changes, the ongoing Yield Forecast Challenge, ag commodity purchases from China, and the roles of relative prices and elasticity.
David and Brent discuss dry planting conditions, an episode of the Ag Interrupted series, farm loan delinquencies, the farm economy, and a book about George Washington.
David discusses the changes to the AEI website, unpacks what the data presented by the drought monitor may mean for crop yields, and takes a look at the idea of ROI.
David discusses implications from the July WASDE and June acreage reports, interest rate movement, commodity pricing, and planned changes to both the AEI site and the publication time for the weekly newsletter.
David discusses market uncertainty, farm debt, the changes to family living expenses, and due diligence in "desperate times." Additionally, keep an eye out for the USDA's July 12 WASDE report, which will resolve some AFN questions and open new ones.
David discusses progress on New Year's resolutions, gasoline consumption, trends in vegetable oil production, and the placebo effect, and teases an upcoming podcast series - Ag Interrupted.
David discusses recent articles and questions focusing on the macro-economy, actions of the Federal Reserve, and predictions for interest rates, inflation trends, and the Fed fund rate.
David discusses recent articles and reports highlighting the results of the June WASDE report, actions of the Federal Reserve, and the stocks-to-use situation.
David comments on recent articles including one marking the end of an Ag Forecast Network question on taxes, and one regarding the interaction of inflation and corn prices, which also brings up a lesson from history.
David discusses the ongoing - and still accepting new contestants - Yield Forecast Challenge ahead of the upcoming WASDE report set to be released June 10, fertilizer price changes, and fluctuations in the price of soybean meal and oil.
David discusses elements influencing double-cropping, acre swapping, and the implications of gasoline pricing and consumption.
David discusses new articles, the prevent plant and crop yield situation, the potential for crops to see acre switching or demand rationing occur, and takes a look at the meaning behind the phrase “Desperate times call for desperate measures.”
David discusses data and implications from the May WASDE report, initial results for several Ag Forecast Network questions, updates the early results of the Yield Forecast Challenge, and highlights new articles.
David highlights important elements of the upcoming May WASDE report, reviews the open questions for the 2022 Yield Challenge, and discusses details of recent articles.
David and guest co-host Randall Dickhut discuss farmland sales, land value, cash rental rates, and the rise in uncertainty.
David and Brent discuss new articles and insights, stagflation, and the early days of the 2022 Ag Forecast Network Yield Challenge.
David kicks off the start of the 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge - 16 questions with a $1,600 prize - with the initial questions and details of recent yield-focused articles.
David and Brent discuss the macroeconomy including ongoing Ag Forcast Network questions about potential actions of the Fed, inflation rates, supply shocks, and debt.
David and Brent discuss the somewhat unexpected results of the USDA's March Prospective Planting report and share how well the Ag Forecast Network Consensus predicted the outcome of crop-based questions.
David soliloquizes about articles and questions covering topics including farm sector assets debt, fertilizer prices, and oil prices, before touching on details of the upcoming Yield Forecast Challenge.
David and Brent discuss how to handle chaos, commodity price increases resulting from the Ukraine-Russia situation, new Ag Forcast Network questions, and what happened last time Congress tried to end daylight saving time.
Speaking from the Commodity Classic, David chats about new articles and new questions, crop insurance price windows, the corn-soybean crop price ratio, and a memo about how to deal with chaos.
David and Brent discuss global acreage expansion by country and crop type along with elements influencing the macroeconomic situation.
David and Brent discuss the situation with Russia and Ukraine from a crop production and commodity perspective following the initial stages of the invasion. Data shared in the conversation stems from analyses completed in a new What We Are Thinking About Memo.
David and Brent discuss new USDA data on net farm income estimates. This week's conversation also highlights ARC and PLC and possible Farm Bill programs, along with planted acreage potentials.
David and Brent discuss crop insurance, the conclusion of an Ag Forecast Network question about sales to China, and the weather-forecasting abilities of groundhogs.
David and Brent discuss podcasting, using historical situations to improve thinking about current events and decision-making, the "rhyming" nature of history, and carrying lessons forward.
David and Brent discuss new articles, the macroeconomy, the most recent meeting of the Fed - including its implications for interest rates - and the potential influence of the Russia/Ukraine situation on the grain trade.
David and Brent discuss what it means to be carbon neutral versus aspiring to be carbon neutral, new articles, the influence of China on the grain trade, and open Ag Forecast Network questions.
David and Brent discuss the data from new USDA reports and recently published articles, and examine results from several now closed AFN questions.
Brent and David start the New Year discussing implications of the most recent Fed meeting along with the new questions coming to the Ag Forecast Network.
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Brent and David discuss the Fed's latest meeting and implications from interest rates, inflation, GDP, and farmland value.
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David and Brent take a look at new articles, highlight memorable moments from 2021, and discuss the multiple elements to consider when thinking about corn or soybean planting for 2022.
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David and Brent discuss recent articles and the role that market volatility is playing in both outlook determinations for anticipated plantings and budget preparation.
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David and guest co-host Jeff Young take a closer look at the Yield Model Project and lessons learned about factors that influence crop yield as highlighted by Westcott-Jewison.
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David and guest co-host Troy Walker dive into the details of the fertilizer market and highlight potential challenges that could be on the horizon.
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David delves into the changing market for soybean oil and reviews the players in this year's acreage debate before asking listeners to think about why the end of Daylight Saving Time makes them grumble.
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David and Brent reflect on lessons learned from poker, books, and the benefits of curiosity.
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David discusses ways to improve thinking through risk, articles from the week, and how the social desirability bias works.
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Listen this week as David discusses changes brought by the October WASDE and the pros and cons of being "defensive" with fertilizer choices.
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Cory Morris joins David this week as they discuss inflation and former Federal Chairman Paul Volcker.
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Listen this week as David discusses low interest rates and asset values and the chaos of decision making.
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Brent and David dig into the depths of inflation.
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Before Brent starts harvest, he and David dig into the September WASDE report, acreage, stocks to use and farmland values.
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In this week's episode, David and Brent discuss net farm income estimates and ad hoc programs.
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Listen this week as Brent and David discuss the new grain marketing year, the 35th year of the CRP program and how to price a Triceratops.
Brent and David dive into fertilizer prices and how they compare to a year ago; what we can learn from Darwin by way of a pro/con list.
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This week, David and Brent discuss the states with the largest corn and soybean production, USDA yield errors and what China is buying.
This week, Brent and David discuss the recent WASDE report, corn and soybean yields, decreasing exports and rationalizing after decision making.
David digs into this week's uncertainties involving the August WASDE Report, market expectations and harvested acres in China.
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Brent and David discuss this week's ag uncertainties surrounding farm land values, yield trends and the August WASDE report.
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Listen this week as Brent and David discuss what they have been thinking about: trade, backyard biases and inflation.
In this week's episode, Brent and David discuss ethanol, soybean prices, farm economic conditions and the recent WASDE report.
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David digs into the marketing year on pricing and yields.
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This week, Brent and David discuss commodity profits, global acreage expansion and what we can learn from unknown unknowns.
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Brent and David discuss the macroeconomy this week, looking at inflation, 2021 economic growth and when the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates.
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Listen this week as David delves into farm loan delinquencies, real estate and non real estate trends, and limits on exponential growth.
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Brent and David get ready for the June WASDE report, look into 2022 land values and discuss cryptocurrencies.
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Brent and David ask three questions this week:
- How soon might we have inflation?
- How high will it go?
- How long might it last?
Read their latest article about inflation here.
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Dr. Rejeana Gvillo with the Farms Business Network joins David in this week's discussion. They dig into acreage changes and what economists may learn from changes from changes in behavior due to COVID-19.Not a member of AEI Premium yet? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.
Brent and David dig into the farm economy, the May WASDE report, prospective planting and why it's important to stay curious.
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Sarah Hubbart joins David in this week's discussion on the upcoming Farm Bill timeline, infrastructure and workforce and rental car shortages.
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In this week's episode, David dives into the economic K shape, the May WASDE Report and ideas that make us better because we look for them.
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Guest Jeff Young joins David this week as they discuss AEI Premium's summer yield project, farmland values and the perfect balance of a kumquat.
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In this week's podcast, Brent and David discuss commodity prices, production concerns, ending stocks and what's happening with carbon.
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Listen this week as David and Brent dive into forecasting the upcoming June acreage report and discuss takeaways from Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's 60 minute interview on the economy.
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In this week's podcast, David and Brent discuss fertilizer prices and carbon, and wonder how long the good time last regarding prices?
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Guest Jacquie Holland joins David this week as they discuss Farm Futures' work, USDA reporting and uncertainty we face in 2021.
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Join David and Brent this week as they talk about the stimulus, fertilizer and farm fuel prices, and why Linda creates problems for us.
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Join Brent and David this week as they delve into soybean pricing, prevented planting and interest rate expectations.
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This week, Brent and David discuss things they're thinking about: carbon, inflation and ethanol.
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This week, David and Brent discuss March madness as it relates to acreage, prevented planting.
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Join Brent and David this week as they look into the macroeconomy and question if there can be too much stimulus.
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Join David and Brent this week as they talk about 2020 farm income, 2021 estimates and production expenses.
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Join David and Brent this week as they dissect fertilizer prices, trade with China and how confirmation bias can hold you back.
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Join Brent and David as they dig into PLC vs ARC payments.
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Join David and Brent as they discuss the acreage debate, farm economy, and what GameStop and the Piggy Wiggly have in common.
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Join David and Brent as they dig into the new administration's impact on farm policy, discuss what inflation rates will do over the next few years and if Indiana's farmland values will increase.
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Join Brent and David as they discuss ending stocks on an acre basis, land values, and how glass marble races can help us consider the value of skill vs. luck.
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Join David and Brent as they discuss ending stocks, cash rents, the farm economy and other considerations for 2021.
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Join David and Brent as they look back on 2020 and into 2021. They discuss the mental models, compound growth and thinking through uncertainty.
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Join Brent and David as they discuss the top stories from 2020 and what we can all learn from the wisdom of a 6 year old.
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Join David and Brent this week as they discuss the year's outlook, ending stocks, hindsight bias and former Governor Tom Vilsack's good luck.
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Join Brent and David as they discuss direct government farm payments and Annie Duke's recent book about decision making.
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Join David and Brent as they discuss the decline in economic activity, employment rates and parallels between the opening scene of Monty Python and waiting for a COVID-19 vaccine.
Brent and David discuss yield estimates, ending stocks, the farm economy and their newest project: Escaping 1980.
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Brent and David on ad hoc payment, corn prices, what the elections mean for Senate and House Agriculture and discuss their newest project, Escaping 1980.
Troy joins David this week as they discuss winter wheat acres, double crop soybeans, fertilizer prices, and milo exports to China.
Jeff Young joins David this week as they discuss yields, WASDE Reports and decades of change in one year.
David discusses the October WASDE report, ending stocks, exports and stocks to use.
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David and guest host Cory Morris discuss exchange rates, the Ag Forecast Network tool, and why we should challenge our thinking.
Join David this week as he discusses fertilizer prices, SHIP, Congress, ending stocks and how to best set your home thermostat.
David and Brent discuss corn and soybean yields, stocks to use ratio, the U.S. dollar and exports to China.
Brent discusses the WASDE Report, PLC and government payments and net farm income estimates.
David and Brent discuss net farm income, Superpower Showdown by Bob Davis and Lingling We and play Lodden Thinks with the upcoming USDA WASDE report.
In this week's podcast, David and Brent discuss gasoline consumption and its impact on ethanol; trend yields. Find out more at aei.ag.
Brent and David discuss the growing season, stocks to use ratio, ending stocks and prevent plant acreage.
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David and Brent discuss the August WASDE report, prevent plant the subjectivity of science.
David and Brent discuss the macro-economy, the Fed balance sheet, the deficit and the weakening of the U.S. Dollar.
Brent and David talk about the interest rate outlook, parallels between the United States' response to COVID-19 and the Ukraine's during the Chernobyl disaster, and discuss ideas that make us better.
Brent and David discuss the WASDE Report, stocks use ratio, drought and the SHIPP Program.
Brent and David discuss ethanol usage and corn exports, COVID-19's impact on the U.S. food systems, and today's relevancy from the book Midnight in Chernobyl.
Join David and Brent as they discuss the corn acreage report, forecast scores, ethanol and locusts.
Brent and David discuss trade with China, exchange rates and the upcoming acreage report.
Brent and David discuss stock probability on corn and soybeans and questions abut production and demand.
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Join the AEI team as they discuss recent articles and AEI Premium Forecasting Tool.
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Join David and Brent as they discuss hurricane impacts, prevented planting and the economic supply and demand given COVID-19.
David and Brent discuss exports, trade, yields, and the U.S. dollar.
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