The Razor's Edge: Recent Episodes
Shortman Studios
The Razor’s Edge is an investing podcast that combines a prop trader’s viewpoint and deep-dive fundamental research to provide a unique take on the markets. The show is co-hosted by Akram’s Razor, a trader, tech enthusiast, meat lover, Marvel fanboy, battle tested activist short-seller and humble market servant, and by Daniel Shvartsman, a long-time editor and director for Seeking Alpha who has seen thousands of investing pitches and ideas, as well as how these ideas play out.
The duo start with a theme or idea from Akram’s investing, then break it down to understand what goes into the idea, what could go wrong, and what else investors and traders need to know. They also interview industry leaders, executives, and other investors to get a wider perspective. The show has thousands of listeners around the world.
Our second podcast of this week and 2024 covers companies not priced for perfection, but that instead have struggled.
We start with China stocks, and the question of whether China is uninvestible. We go into Akram's July 2023 Alibaba trade views and how that was also an investment thesis. We also talk about the connected nature of global economics now and in history.
From there we jump to Boeing's travails and how much of those travails should be pinned on Boeing, and how much of them are part of doing business, and capitalism generally.
Related posts:
The Razor's Edge: China is Uninvestable??
The Razor's Edge: Boeing and Regulatory Capture in Capitalism
The Long and Short of the Markets: Boeing's Bad Week, and Going Beyond the Headlines
- 2:05 minute mark – the stakes with the China trade
- 6:20 – Restarting with Baba’s position and Akram’s July 2023 thesis on Alibaba
- 13:00 – The Baba buy case
- 19:00 – China’s import beyond China-based companies, crypto and politics asides
- 24:00 – China’s lagging performance and frontier market experience
- 34:30 – The concept of too hard
- 37:30 – Getting into Boeing’s issues and past regulatory stories
- 48:00 – Boeing’s track record in context of other industries, and shared responsibilities
- 59:00 – Boeing too big to fail?
- 1:07:00 – The capitalism angle
The chip sector has been Hansel-level hot to start 2024. AMD and Nvidia have jumped 14% and 21% respectively in 2024, the SOXX ETF is up 8% in the last week, and the AI theme of 2023 is still driving things to start 2024.
What does this say about the sector, and why is it like being a favorite to win the Super Bowl? We discuss the excitement, the build out of AI, the usage, and how that all converges into questions for chip stocks.
This is the first of two episodes this week, with the second on a couple different topics, watch for that Thursday or Friday.
Referenced article: https://the-razors-edge.ghost.io/razors-edge-nvidia-pide-piper-baidu-bumblings/
Referenced presentation/tweet: https://twitter.com/akramsrazor/status/1745029272140456325
Topics Covered* 6:00 minute mark – Chip party * 10:30- AMD’s spark * 16:00 – The internet bubble comparison * 21:00 – Feeling Peakish * 24:30 – Hyperscalers data center build out and what could go wrong for Nvidia * 34:00 – Apple’s Siri as an example of how AI will benefit us, vs. a new hardware assistant * 45:30 – Are there any winners in a great AI software convergence * 52:30 - Why it matters for chip stocks
Hey! We're back! It's been a while, but with 2023 finishing in such a one-direction flourish, we wanted to pick up the mic again. Akram and Daniel talk about what to make of the market's triumphal 2023. We cover the overall vibes in the market, but also get into the weeds on stocks like Nvidia, Micron, Docusign, Zoom, and even Alteryx and Roku, as well as a few older names.
The plan is to publish more in the year ahead. Hold us to it, and enjoy this episode.
Topics Covered* 2:15 minute mark – A triumphal year for the market – justified? * 9:00 – Financials as an example of shifting momentum and sentiment, as well as thematic trading and the speed of change * 13:30 – End uses of AI – where are we at this point * 20:00 - Nvidia as the locus of various tech hype cycles * 28:00 – What does semiconductor cyclicality look like now? * 34:15 – Are we in normal yet? For software or otherwise * 51:00 – Speed of moves in the last quarter of 2023
It's been a while since we've posted a Razor's Edge episode, and a lot has happened! A whole banking crisis came and went and apparently is all resolved (?). More relevant to the sort of things we talk about, the Nasdaq has returned to full bull market mode, powered by the excitement around generative AI, as best embodied by Nvidia's smashing earnings report of late May 2023.
There's a lot to be legitimately excited about with this trend, and at the same time, like every exciting new thing, there's a lot to be suspicious of. Is generative AI going to generate us right out of what was still a re-centering, declining tech market? Can generative AI be good for every publicly traded tech company except CHGG? When does chat GPT replace us as hosts?
That's what we cover on this week's episode, more or less.
Topics Covered* 3:00 minute mark - The macro backdrop for this bifurcated rally * 7:30 – What we learned from NVDA’s report * 15:30 – How this AI compute trend plays out across the semiconductor sector * 24:00 – AI uses and AI losers or trade-offs * 34:00 – Bear market rally, death of permabears, and the many crosswinds * 46:00 – How the cost-cutting rally collides with the AI investment rally * 53:30 – How does anyone get an edge using AI
It’s been a funky start to the year, as a dash for trash rally has extended into a not as bad as expected earnings rally, and now it’s easy to be wrongfooted.
We dive into this market, including how markets don't go straight to zero, no matter what December felt like; how recessions take a long time to play out; what we can learn from moves in Twilio and Meta; and why the rise of AI has complicated narratives.
On this week's The Razor's Edge, we talk about software as a service and how the market seems to repeat the same patterns over and over. Those patterns include:
- Taking the last three months and the next three months and extrapolating far into the future
- Ignoring valuation until it's too late to ignore valuation
- Searching for silver bullet explanations and one-size-fits-all theories
This time around that means that some of the first Covid winners and first Covid hangover victims are starting to look like interesting post-hangover recoveries; that usage based business models are just business models with their pluses and minuses; and that profitability matters, whether its actual profitability or easy to see how a company cuts to get there.
All-star guest Compound248 joins us to follow up on a wild week in the markets. We talk Elon Musk’s high volume start as owner of Twitter and the SBF, FTX, crypto crisis. Akram's Razor and Compound go back and forth on the import for the cryptosphere, why Elon and team could have taken easier shots on goal, and break down what breaking the buck means, among other topics. It's a story of the Hindenburg and the Titanic, and we see how things got to where they are and what might change.
5:00 minute mark – Twitter – the Twitter turmoil in the Musk era, and what Twitter could/should be doing now, the power of direct messages, Elon’s core thesis and the voices in his ear, the timing; Twitter’s data business and a SaaS digression
44:00 minute mark – FTX – the building blocks that lead to FTX’s and SBF’s rise; where things went wrong; the importance of staying silent as a levered brokerage business; the Lehman and other parallels; SBF’s use of Twitter; Binance’s checkmate move and whether it was proximate or definitive; breaking the buck; the final takeaways for crypto and for bitcoin – bull or bear?
Last week was a big week in tech, so we’re back with an episode on two of the biggest stories. First, (2:40 minute mark) we break down Meta Platforms’ bummer of an earnings result and why it shouldn’t have been so surprising. What choice does Zuck have and where is the business heading?
We then (57:00) get into Amazon and AWS’s disappointing quarter, and the future of public cloud. That opens up some space for talking about the generals no longer leading and what a downturn in VC funding means for big tech.
We wrap up with a few minutes on Twitter (1:30:00) now that the Elon Musk deal is done and dusted.
Check out Akram’s post on these matters.
Q2 earnings season has delivered many surprises on the one hand and continuations of trends on the other hand. For SaaS companies, that has meant continued drifting.
Last week, Okta, MDB, and Veeva reported, and we break down each of those companies on this week's the Razor's Edge (you can also read Akram's take here). We get into the challenges each of those companies face, but also the broader difference between "legacy" SaaS companies like Salesforce and the newer all cloud products like Okta.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark - Okta’s earnings – what went wrong and what differentiates the Oktas from the Salesforces * 10:00 – The value of “the suits” and the challenge of building a microservice-based business model * 23:00 – The presumption that software is a great model * 28:00 – MDB’s earnings * 40:00 – Cutting to profitability amidst the tech recession * 52:00 – The consolidation calvary is not about to arrive, and what else to watch * 58:00 – Notes on Veeva * 1:04:00 – Docusign preview
Roku's dud of a quarter echoed both Snap's report from the week earlier and the start of the pandemic as the sudden advertising slowdown hit them as well. The issues with Roku go beyond the quarter, starting primarily with how much harder it is to understand the details of their business. Will this quarter force a change? And what else does the advertising slowdown mean for the market? We discuss on this week's The Razor's Edge.
Topics Covered * 3:30 minute mark – Breaking down Roku’s wipeout * 11:30 – How important is the advertising wipeout in general * 19:30 – Whisper numbers and the Roku black box * 31:30 – Will this force Roku to be more transparent? The Twilio example * 39:30 – What makes Roku more interesting? * 55:00 – The death of never sell
It’s all happening: Elon Musk filed to terminate his deal to buy Twitter, Twitter sued him for specific performance, and now the trials begin. Today, not a trial actually but a hearing to see whether the trial should take place on Twitter’s requested timeline, in September, or Musk’s requested timeline, in February.
Still, the two sides are starting to show their hands. While much of this ‘negotiating’ has been done in public, the filings were still revelatory. So, as we approach the endgame of the endgame, Akram's Razor and Daniel talk about what we learned, what happens next, and who has a stronger hand; though I don’t think you’ll be surprised by our conclusions if you’ve listened to us before.
Topics Covered
- 3:30 minute mark – Initial takeaways from the filings
- 12:30 – Twitter bot approach and response
- 15:00 – Breaking down Elon’s breach filing
- 23:30 – Takeaways from Twitter’s filing
- 29:00 – Recutting a deal and the Anaplan parallel
- 48:00 – Musk’s motivations and laziness
- 1:00:00 – What happens next?
- 1:09:30 – The “the court wouldn’t risk being ignored” argument
- 1:14:00 – The prisoner’s dilemma result of an actual acquisition
- 1:18:00 – The size of the deal
1:28:30 – Last thoughts
On this week’s The Razor’s Edge, we talk about the bear market. It’s here, it’s real, so now what?
Neither Akram nor Daniel are in an apocalyptic mood, so we explain why we’re not, what green shoots there are on the supply side, what risks there are on the demand side, how this echoes 2020 (or not), how much crypto contagion worries us, and why it’s tricky picking individual names.
Topics Covered * 2:00 minute mark – An apocalyptic moment? Maybe not * 10:00 – Is supply solving itself just as demand is weakening? * 20:00 – The energy pullback – why was it predictable * 23:00 – The echoes of March 2020 * 30:00 – Crypto contagion and its risks * 38:00 – Opportunities in the current market * 48:00 – What if inflation doesn’t slow down? * 52:00 – The challenge of individual names and the hopes for a quiet summer
This week's episode picks up where last week's The Razor's Edge episode left off. We talk the current whipsaw/whiplash macro environment, where a smaller, often over optimistic social media company can trigger a panic, and then news that is no worse than expected can fire up a bear market rally.
We discuss tech stocks, retail stocks, and whether it's possible to be too bearish or too bullish as the winds shift.
In part two of our recording this week, we get to Elon Musk and Twitter. Both because how can we not at this point, as the drama continues to unfurl, and also because Akram makes the case for this as a good merger arb play given the strength of contract law. We talk about whether Musk can work his way out of this and why Akram thinks he can’t, and what the next steps of the saga should be, along with a whole lot more.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark - The logical aspects of the Twitter case * 13:30 - Twitter's setting up to go the distance, and the bots issue * 30:00 - How material is the bots case * 35:00 - What are the next steps, and the role of the equity partners * 43:00 - Past precedents * 50:00 - The outstanding risks to Twitter as a company and to Tesla as a stock * 1:00:00 - Quick comments on the retail sector
Markets are in turmoil, and we almost busted out the siren. But instead of commemorating the second bear market in the Razor's Edge's lifetime, we focused on whether, actually, growth stocks might have bottomed. In an episode recorded Sunday, May 22nd, we talk about the growth stock washout, whether sentiment or operating momentum has bottomed, whether ZoomInfo makes sense as a short and Zoom Video makes sense as a long, and the peer pressure that a lot of investors, famous or not, have faced in the past couple years.
This is the first of a two-part episode, as we'll get to the Twitter story tomorrow or Wednesday.
- 3:00 minute mark – The pending bear market, and have growth stocks already washed out?
- 8:00 – The ZoomInfo short and picking on the last high flyer standing
- 14:00 – So is this a bottom?
- 21:00 – Sentiment bottom vs. operating momentum bottom
- 33:00 – The recession/slowdown shoe to drop
- 38:00 – Zoom’s “soft landing” problems
- 43:00 – The two Zooms
- 52:30 – The turning tide among big-name investors and the peer pressure market
Tech as a sector has been a theme of the Razor's Edge from the beginning. Tech as a sector to avoid has been a theme of the Razor's Edge for at least the last few months. While there have been exceptions and nuances to the sector, the market has shown little interest in nuance, as this week's earnings have made clear.
Juniper Networks, an old dot com bubble victim and survivor, has been an exception to that rule. A name Akram's Razor wrote up as a long thesis late last year, Juniper is up for the year as it has a few points in its favor: an upgrade cycle, a reasonable valuation, and operational momentum in the Wi-Lan space thanks to a winning acquisition.
We discuss the company's prospects and why it is an exception to the tech rule, and also the legacy of tech sector sentiment shifts and a lot more.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – The upgrade cycle driving Juniper * 7:30 – Why the company has stagnated for so long and why that is changing * 13:00 – The Wi-LAN opportunity and kicker * 18:00 – How is Juniper handling the backlog * 21:30 – Relative performance for Juniper and its risk/reward * 27:30 – The dot.com legacy and the recent momentum * 31:30 – How the networking and virtualization corner of tech fits into a broader tech bucket * 35:30 – Tech shifts in sentiment, and a Microsoft case study
We planned to do another episode this week, but on a different tech stock. We did indeed record that episode, but at the same time, with all the developments around Twitter - the board's adoption of a poison pill, Elon Musk's discussion of his bid during a Ted talk, and Jack Dorsey's subtweets of the board, among other things - we decided to discuss the situation.
Akram's Razor posted a case for why Twitter's Endgame is at hand. Daniel had questions. And with this being a fast-moving situation, we are sharing it quickly. The second half of the discussion, on a different tech company, will come out later this week.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark – How the surrounding situation has changed and the case for the Elon Musk offer * 15:30 – Why the current price of offer is ok and avoiding anchoring * 28:00 – The private company angle and Twitter’s needed transformation * 40:30 – Jack’s presence in all of this
A lot has happened since we last published a Razor’s Edge episode: the outbreak of war, increased Fed hawkishness, and continued market volatility.
We pick up the thread we’ve been following for some time, though: how to understand ‘normalized’ earnings power and behavior amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, the global response, and all the knock-on effects. We focus this time on the consumer goods sector and whether the cliff facing companies like RH and Best Buy is buyable, and what it says about the current market.
We also, because how could we not, discuss Elon Musk’s investment in Twitter (though this was recorded a few hours before the news came out that he would not in the end serve as a director on Twitter’s board).
Topics Covered * 4:00 minute mark – Recent ups and downs * 7:30 – Whither online spending * 13:00 – The Consumer’s health and the consumer goods cliff – BBY, RH * 23:00 – How much has the market already considered this all? * 36:00 – Backlogs to save us * 40:00 – Dive in or stay away? Revisiting travel * 49:00 – The complicated consumer picture * 54:00 – Twitter and the Musk situation * 1:03:00 – The value of a corporate jackhammer * 1:09:00 – The security analysis challenge
Reading List:
- Akram's Razor's Edge: Covid Cliff Comes to Consumer and Fast's WeWork Moment
- Freight Waves' Why I believe a freight recession is imminent
- Stripe's Annual Report
Last week was a wild one. Given we’re not in a period of acute crisis, and that the market finished higher on the week, the swings from Wednesday to Thursday to Friday were especially pronounced, even before you throw in Monday’s comeback rally. The triggers to those moves? At least on the surface, big tech earnings.
To figure out what’s happening there and what these outsized moves say about the companies involved and the market as a whole, Akram’s Razor and Daniel break down Google, Amazon, and Facebook’s earnings. We talk about the market set up, whether this is as good as it is going to get for these companies, and why no one predicts a massive growth slowdown in their compounding business line.
Topics Covered * 2:00 minute mark – Initial reaction including the muted note with Google * 7:00 – What explains the outsized moves * 14:00 – The nature of Amazon’s segments * 18:00 – Facebook’s issues and how they might overcome it * 30:30 – Peak online time * 36:00 – AWS’s future growth * 46:00 – Is this what slowdowns look like * 1:00:00 – The market set-up
Happy New Year! Though this week’s The Razor’s Edge touches on what may not be the happiest start for people investing in software names or tech more generally. So what’s going on? We throw together a bit of recent and longer-term history, a bit of market sentiment analysis, and some opinions on what might still work, to see why a shift has been coming for a while and why there might be more to come.
Topics covered * 2:00 minute mark - Did the first week mark a change or a continuation? * 10:00 – The momentum juggling game * 13:30 – What’s triggering the shift? * 20:00 – End of a software cycle and finding an investor base * 28:00 – Tracking companies’ evolutions * 36:30 – Consensus buys vs. taking a leap of faith * 48:00 – Multiple gravity has changed towards the slow and steady * 57:00 – The 00s shipping bubble as a parallel * 59:30 – Navigating the factors and the importance of getting the cycle right * 1:11:30 – Sectors to watch * 1:17:00 – Importance of perspective * 1:21:00 – The nature of competition when all eyes are on a trend * 1:35:00 – Not quite validation for permabears either
We pick up this week's conversation where last week's (and so many of our past episodes left off) - what about Twitter, at this price, in this economy? We talk about the succession decision and why the set-up for the incoming CEO, intentionally set or not, is pretty attractive. We talk about Elliott Management's role in all this, and what they might be thinking about Twitter at this stage. We talk about downside and sector performance, and then we circle back to last week's discussion on the overall market volatility and why buying great companies irrespective of price can lead to more than the occasional pothole, even if the ride as a whole may turn out successful enough.
Topics Covered * 2:45 minute mark – Twitter’s valuation and the set up for new CEO Parag Agarwal * 8:00 - The succession decision * 14:00 – Other considerations for this move * 22:00 – The downside at this point for Twitter * 25:00 – Elliott’s role in all of this * 29:00 – Sector movements * 34:00 – Market considerations * 40:00 – Places to avoid * 45:00 – Extreme outcomes when buying a good business * 49:00 – The ongoing volatility event in the market
Docusign’s sell-off on Friday and the corresponding market (and Nasdaq) sell-off are the latest sign of market uncertainty. No one knows anything – as Monday’s rally reminds us – but the question is whether we know we don’t know. In this week’s The Razor’s Edge, we focus on the uncertainty in the market, the importance of valuation even when growth stocks work, and how to handle the volatility. This ends up being a two-parter, as we will get to Jack Dorsey’s exit from Twitter in the second part next Tuesday.
Topics Covered * 2:45 minute mark – Docusign initial take * 5:00 – Ringing the bell or the rolling sell-off * 14:00 – Inflation and the macro in context * 21:00 – Buy and hold and contrasting investing styles * 24:00 – Starting SaaS multiples * 35:00 – Limited entry point * 43:00 – Bubble basket challenges * 51:00 – Triggers and bottoms
Some references: * Daniel’s Docusign article * Akram’s SaaS tweet * Akram’s Zoom tweet
We wrap up our Future of Compute series with a leading force in the field, Naveen Rao. Rao founded Nervana Systems, the first next-gen AI chip company, which he sold to Intel. He then drove Intel's AI road map before stepping down from the company in 2020, and just recently announced the founding of MosaicML, an AI startup focused on making algorithms more efficient through what he calls here a 'benchmarking as a service' approach.
Given his interest in AI stretching back over two decades and his front seat position in the field, Rao's perspective on the competitive landscape, on how things have changed from Nervana to Mosaic, and the challenges facing merchant silicon firms is both valuable and a nice wrap-up of the three part series. He gives his take on the Nvidia/ARM deal, Intel's position, the supply chain, and a lot more.
Check out MosaicML, as well as their twitter account and Naveen's.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – Naveen’s entry into the AI world over his career * 6:00 – What did people have to learn about neural networks? * 8:00 – The goal of Mosaic * 14:00 – View on the current landscape * 17:30 – The model Mosaic is targeting * 20:30 – The significance of Nvidia’s A100 and shift to AI dedicated GPUs – the field in 2016 * 26:00 – The field in 2018 * 32:30 – How to look at the AI market today * 38:30 – The challenges facing legacy merchant silicon makers * 45:30 – Can the industry continue to develop with such a fragmented environment * 51:30 – Intel’s reaction to the current climate * 55:30 – Where are the IPOs? * 1:04:00 – Tesla’s D1 Chip and AI ambitions * 1:12:30 – The Nvidia/Arm deal * 1:15:30 – Supply Chain challenges
This week we take a break from our Future of Compute series on the Razor’s Edge to talk Peloton.
In an earnings season full of big moves and surprises, Peloton's downhill fall has been one of the headline events. As we mention on the call, who would imagine that COVID would still be a part of our lives, but Zoom and Peloton shares would be flat from June 2020? And yet, here we are.
We break down how management may have backed themselves into a corner and what it would take for Peloton to climb again. We also get into how this is a signal of the pandemic-related challenges that still face many companies in a market that, despite continuing to rise as a whole, has seen more and more companies hit potholes.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – Peloton’s earnings fiasco * 8:30 – The business model and the bull case * 15:00 – Did Peloton’s management set themselves up for a fall? * 21:00 – The permanent changes vs. trends in the broader U.S. economy * 27:30 – How to recover from lost credibility * 35:00 – Where does upside come from * 40:00 – How Peloton can stabilize/turn it around * 48:00 – The narrative momentum * 56:30 – Market dispersion * 1:01:00 – Last call on Peloton, and comparison to Zoom * 1:16:00 – The challenges exiting a pandemic and investing meanwhile
The accelerating growth in the AI market requires different approaches from the hardware side. Cerebras's approach is that size matters and bigger is better: the company's massive wafer chip is the base of its AI intentions. CFO Tony Maslowski discusses the company's core insights and how that positions them to compete in the market. Maslowski, the former CFO at Avago Broadcom, also shares his view on the current supply chain challenges, on when these new-gen companies might go public, and on what the end game might be for the incumbent - Nvidia - and its challengers.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark - Cerebras Origins * 7:00 – Unpacking Cerebras’s core insight * 10:00 – How has the market evolved the past few years? * 14:00 – Telling a new story and carving a new path in the chip space * 21:00 – System vs. accelerator solutions * 22:45 – Current end markets for AI * 29:00 – Differentiating between AI and supercomputing * 33:00 – Understanding training vs. inference * 36:45 – The fragmentation of AI uses and suppliers * 41:45 – When do these companies start coming public? * 43:45 – The limits or challenges on competing for a new company * 46:45 – What force drives AI use in the near term? * 48:45 – The lost flexibility in the semiconductor supply chain * 53:45 – The auto industry’s chip needs * 55:00 – Where the leading force in the chip industry will come from
The semiconductor industry is in a period of transition. Supply chain problems and questions over whether we are now in a secular growth environment; changing leadership as Intel loses ground and Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and even a new generation of start-ups stake out a claim; and the new demands posed by Artificial Intelligence and its burgeoning compute needs.
We're rolling out a little Future of Compute series to cover this. We speak with several executives and experts in the field to hear what the state of semiconductors, technology usage, and artificial intelligence from the hardware and software side looks like.
We kick off with Jeff Wittich, Chief Product Officer at Ampere Computing. Wittich, like several of his Ampere colleagues including CEO/founder Renee James, is an Intel veteran. Ampere’s aim is to develop server chips designed explicitly for cloud usage, using an ARM chip framework, with the target of delivering much greater power efficiency. They seem to be gaining traction, with the most recent evidence being reports SoftBank is considering an investment in Ampere at an $8B valuation.
We speak with Jeff about Ampere’s journey, about why now is the time for Arm-based chips in servers, about how hyperscalers shape the industry’s demands, the state of semiconductors, and of course a bit on Intel and its challenges.
Topics Covered * 4:00 – Ampere’s story * 6:00 – What does a cloud focus mean for a chip maker? * 11:30 – ARM’s experience in the data center world * 16:45 – Why now for ARM-based server chips? * 19:30 – TSM’s passing Intel and Intel losing its data center advantage * 24:30 – The role of the hyperscalers as pace setters for cloud hardware * 28:30 – Can Intel hold onto a shrinking datacenter TAM? * 30:30 – The inflection point in the competitive landscape * 35:00 – The in-house vs. outsourcing question for AI companies * 41:00 – The inference vs. training distinction and the role of the CPU * 47:00 - Optimizing for AI workloads * 50:30 – How is Ampere lasting when other companies quit * 55:30 – Supply chain outlook * 58:30 – Risk of a cyclical downturn? * 1:01:30 – Lightning round and edge vs. cloud
Before you listen, there is a The Razor's Edge newsletter now available. Written by Akram's Razor, the Razor's Edge will come out at least twice a month and include ideas, analysis, macro input, and the insights you would expect from this podcast. Check it out at: https://the-razors-edge.ghost.io
We revisit three The Razor's Edge names from 2021. Alibaba is down in the dumps from regulatory scrutiny, Stitch Fix can't get no respect, and Twitter received a negative sell-side initiation. We talk about each of the stocks, and while on the surface it would seem that nothing beyond stock performance and our interest unites the three, there are a lot of echoes in how the market is looking at each of them, at least from our vantage point.
Topics Covered Alibaba * 3:30 minute mark - Why the recent regulatory reports around Ant Financial aren’t shocking * 10:00 – US corollaries for the current discussion * 14:00 – Last year’s warning * 18:00 – The significance of the FT report and how it might help Alipay’s/Alibaba’s position * 22:30 – The impact on Alibaba’s valuation itself * 26:30 – China regulators vs. U.S. regulators * 33:00 – Time horizon for clouds to dissipate
Stitch Fix * 38:00 – Why is Stitch Fix so bad? Reviewing the story, valuation, stock, etc. * 49:30 – The stylists’ news * 53:00 – The market context for SFIX’s stock
Twitter * 55:30 – The Goldman downgrade and the confusion about Twitter from bulls * 1:02:00 – Reframing the creator tools * 1:08:00 – Blurring lenses in analyzing Twitter (or all of these names) * 1:12:30 – The luxury of not having the market’s trust
Before you listen, there is a The Razor's Edge newsletter now available. Written by Akram's Razor, the Razor's Edge will come out at least twice a month and include ideas, analysis, macro input, and the insights you would expect from this podcast. Check it out at: https://the-razors-edge.ghost.io
PagerDuty has been a regular topic on The Razor's Edge for over a year, and this month's earnings seemed to reward that attention, as the company crossed the magic 30%+ revenue growth barrier for the first time since the pandemic began.
To get more details on what drove that acceleration and what might come next, we spoke with Howard Wilson, PagerDuty's CFO. We talked about the macro climate driving PagerDuty's opportunity, the competition they are seeing and why they remain confident about it, and what product expansion looks like.
Justen Stepka, regular Razor's Edge guest and formerly of Atlassian and Docker, joined us, and the conversation went deep on strategy, tactics, and opportunities across the board. We think you'll get a lot out of this episode.
Topics Covered * 3:45 minute mark – The second derivative effect * 5:45 – What’s driving growth? * 8:15 – Where is the sales focus? * 9:45 – How the free tier fits into the business * 13:15 – The power of the freemium model for PagerDuty * 16:00 – The changing competitive stance and field * 19:30 – Success in competing as a public company so far * 22:30 – What is the future revenue growth strategy? * 26:15 – PagerDuty network opportunities * 29:45 – Customer sizing and how far penetration can go * 37:45 - Pricing tiering potential * 40:30 – Security Ops as an opportunity * 42:15 – Long-term operating leverage
The quick hit re-open trade of January/February came and went. The U.S. is facing the delta variant of COVID-19 in full, which has shaken out some of the fast money from the travel sector. And yet...
On this week's The Razor's Edge, we talk about why we think, in different ways, that the travel stocks are set up well for this year and beyond. There's a bit of the macro, a bit of a take on delta's persistence, and a lot more on Booking Holdings and Boeing as our focus companies. The full picture may not be clear, but we make a case for why there's enough visibility to make a bet at this point.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – The travel sector’s air pocket * 7:00 – The delta factor * 12:00 – The contrasting set-up between travel stocks and COVID winners this earnings season * 15:30 – Booking Holding’s relative advantages in travel * 22:00 – Thinking about Booking’s valuation * 27:00 – Boeing’s situation and the 737 MAX and so on * 30:00 – Portfolio positioning at this stage in the market * 33:30 – Resetting on the macro outlook * 40:30 – The deflation in inflation talk * 43:30 – The importance of focus with more public names out there * 47:30 – The lurking presence of the crypto trader * 53:00 – The incremental news flow for travel * 1:02:00 – The Covid market pendulum
Earnings season this quarter comes with a special kick. It’s the first one lapping full COVID comps, which means we can start to see what the wonky pull forward or shut down year ago will do to company’s reports, and how the market will respond.
We focus today on Netflix and Twitter, two of our old standbys. On the one hand, they had opposite quarters – Netflix suffered from a post-COVID hangover in their subscriber numbers, which will likely lead revenue numbers; while Twitter posted a huge revenue beat compared to a pandemic crimped Q2 2020. Look a little closer, and there are similarities between the two companies positions and how they look going forward. We break it all down.
Topics Covered Netflix * 4:00 minute mark - Was COVID bad for Netflix? * 10:45 – Measuring Netflix’s numbers given the last two years * 17:30 – The slowdown reaching streaming peers * 25:00 – The industry implications of Netflix’s position and the market reaction * 34:30 – Is the winnowing coming? * 41:00 – What hope is there for other streaming stocks if Netflix is not attractive here?
Twitter * 45:15 – The strong quarter, and the one gray note in the report * 50:00 – Where is Twitter fitting in amongst a hot space… * 55:00 – And how Twitter is better set up for when ads cool off * 58:00 – The spending side of the line * 1:03:00 – Twitter’s set up for the back half of the year
The Didi Global IPO feels like a fiasco - company goes public one week, gets booted from the app store by Chinese regulators the next. With RLX Technology undergoing a similar crackdown earlier this year, and with Ant Financial still being kept off the market, and with concerns around Jack Ma's well-being in light of his criticism of the government, it's not a huge surprise most big-name Chinese stocks on the U.S. markets are trading poorly.
A lot of questions arise, but the most basic one - can you invest in these stocks? In this week's episode we talk about Didi and what the various parties' motivation might be, what might make the picture clearer, and whether you can really invest in Alibaba, as well as whether that matters.
Topics Covered * 3:15 minute mark – What to make of the Didi crackdown * 8:30 – Are China ADRs investible? * 14:15 – What does an ADR actually get you? * 22:15 – Considering the Chinese government’s calculus * 25:15 – The difficulty of establishing an edge in these names * 33:15 – Norms and flows, betting vs investing * 39:15 – How much the right price can matter * 47:15 – Revisiting the “Amazon of China” idea * 52:45 – The Sina example * 57:15 – U.S. Sino accords and balances of power * 1:06:15 – Investing in China-based companies
"I'd rather short a real company than a fraud or a meme stock."
Akram's Razor made this case on a recent Twitter Space, and we unpack the point on today's episode of the Razor's Edge. In a year when many short-sellers have been run over by trains, and have the AMC and GME shaped scars to prove it, betting against a popular, universally loved name may actually be safer. We go over Akram's historic approach to shorting, how that has to adapt to the current market, what the line is between a meme stock and an ordinary dud, and Nvidia's current position, which is more precarious than the market seems to be pricing in.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – Akram's historic shorting approach vs. the current market * 9:00 – Microstrategy (MSTR) hodlco vs. opco * 15:00 – Pay attention vs. avoid meme stocks * 20:30 – More tangible shorts * 24:30 – Sketching out Nvidia questions * 32:30 – Sketching out tech sector questions * 39:30 – The risk of relying on management to warn about slowdowns and the value of contrarianism (in spots) * 47:30 – Disputing numbers vs. disputing stories and the proof of stake risk * 53:30 – The ARM deal and Nvidia’s meme potential * 59:30 – Staying out the way of these memes * 1:06:00 – Building the “you’re crazy” basket
Last week's Fed meeting played to expectations - slightly tougher talk, limited changes in policy. The market's reaction was to pile back into the Covid winners, which meant SaaS stocks among others.
So for today's episode, we follow up on our Fed discussion from last week, talking their decision and the market and media reaction. We then move over to the SaaS sector, our regular field. We break down three companies in detail – Zoom, PagerDuty, and Workday. We finish off with thoughts about the growth hangover that might plague COVID winners generally.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – Our Reaction to the Fed meeting * 6:30 – The market and media reaction to the Fed meeting, and the difference between the health crisis and the market crisis (or reaction thereto) * 17:30 – The analytical challenge for investors and the Fed, with the housing bull market as an example * 23:30 – The crowding effect in the markets * 32:30 – Shift to SaaS – Hasn’t ZM grown into their multiple and what does 2022 look like? * 45:30 – PagerDuty – No surprises; the billings; Atlassian and Everbridge; multiple expansion * 53:30 – Workday – Why the outlook lines up better for them than many SaaS peers – winning the finance office * 58:30 – The distinction between Workday’s or PagerDuty’s customer base and Twilio’s or Zoom’s * 1:09:30 – Growth hangover for Covid winners – THO as an example – and for the investors holding them
(Note: Daniel is long DBX as well as PD/THO, that disclosure was accidentally omitted from the recorded disclosure).
We've seen this movie before, but it still doesn't really make sense: a group of traders has taken up the cause of inflating the stock price of a motley bunch of stocks, including AMC as the most prominent company this time around. There are hints of financial populism as there were with GameStop in January, but this time it feels more like pure financial nihilism.
On today's episode of The Razor's Edge, we talk about the difference between round one and round two, how AMC should have something of a future even if it's more than priced in, and how given the trading volumes it would be rash to assume retail traders are truly driving this movement. We also talk about the body lurking in the background who could, if they so chose, take action to stop or slow this mania. Jerome Powell, you're our only hope? We break it down.
Topics Covered * 3:15 minute mark – Meme stocks part deux, and the bleeding from trading into investing * 11:30 – The abstraction of what moves a stock, and AMC vs. GME fundamentally * 24:00 – Where does this leave AMC and the countercultural movement behind the meme stocks * 34:00 – The algorithmic muscle behind these moves * 39:00 – The blending of signal and noise and market virality * 46:30 – The fight against financial nihilism: Here comes the Fed? * 53:00 – Risk reward of proactive action vs. reactive from the Fed * 1:00:00 – The limits of regulation vs. the limits on liquidity * 1:04:00 – What might the Fed actually do * 1:13:00 – The weirdness of the recent past and how that compares to our current climate, and where that leaves the Fed * 1:18:00 – Fed Credibility
Also, check out another Shortman Studios podcast, the Big Tech Ticket, featuring conversations on the biggest issues in tech. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-tech-ticket/id1565981471
A couple weeks ago, Akram released a short thesis on Yalla, calling out an odd business model and then some major issues with the platform - duplicative accounts, low engagement, glitches with the gifting model, etc.
On this week's episode we recap that short thesis for those who haven't heard it yet, but then we also go into the aftermath. What's it like to have another short report come out in the same week? Where are the bulls? What about that buyback announcement? And where can this go?
Topics Covered * 4:00 minute mark – Background on the Yala case * 7:15 -How Yala works * 13:30 – The content creation red flags * 18:30 – What's the deal with gifting? * 25:00 – The circle that won't square * 32:00 – Thoughts when another short (or three) enters the debate * 37:30 – Lack of bulls and the company response * 43:15 – Where does this go from here? * 49:00 - An alternative playbook * 54:30 - The state of shorting and why this one is different
Reading material * Akram's Razor's presentation on Yalla - https://www.dropbox.com/s/wntrsycechmyxj9/YallaPrez.pdf?dl=0 and update - https://www.dropbox.com/s/y4wihdy3f7zjz6a/Yalla%20FollowUp.pdf?dl=0 * Swan Street Research's presentation on Yalla - https://www.swanstreetresearch.com/post/swan-street-is-short-yalla-group * Yalla's press releases in repsonse: Standard refutation - https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18325971-yalla-group-limited-responds-to-short-attack-reports - and stock buyback announcement - https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18328269-yalla-group-limited-announces-up-to-us-150-million-share-repurchase-program
Inflation realities and fears struck the market last week, sending indices lower and helping drive the Nasdaq's 3rd consecutive losing week. At least that's the straightforward read, but as with so much of the market, there could be other things going on. While many are talking about the CPI report, the CDC's updated mask guidance is a reminder that a post-COVID world is coming. So is that what's moving stocks, or how are investors thinking about all this?
On this edition of The Razor's Edge, we talk about the nature of this inflation and the nature of this market, how it compares to past environments, and what sorts of changes we are or are not making in our positioning.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark - Interpreting the regime change – inflation or end of covid? * 11:00 - The inherent rebalancing * 19:30 - Changes in mindset or positioning * 22:00 - What transitory inflation means, and looking back at 2000 * 31:00 - Managing relative value as a strategy in a changing investment regime environment * 37:30 - Disney as an example of what is a good return and thoughts on pair trades * 45:00 - Hitting the reset button coming out of the pandemic
We're sharing the debut episode of a new Shortman Studios podcast, The Big Tech Ticket. The show, hosted by veteran journalist James Rogers, will cover many of the topics you hear on The Razor's Edge, but from a different angle. AI, semiconductor supply chain, antitrust, all the big issues facing tech and our society today, from the perspective of people with a front-row seat to the stories.
The initial episode features James speaking with Jason Mollica, professor of communications at American University, about Facebook’s oversight board and its awaited decision on whether or not to let Donald Trump back onto the platform. The show was recorded a few weeks ago, and with the decision expected to come out today, the discussion is timely. So, without further ado, check out this episode of the Big Tech Ticket, and sign up for the show wherever you get podcasts, including:
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-tech-ticket/id1565981471
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Aj3Za0kZRMpAGwzgLybPw?si=3c855142bde04233
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark - The background on the Facebook Oversight Board’s pending decision * 7:00 – What is the board considering? * 9:30 – The board’s independence and the stakes of this decision * 13:30 – The impact on users * 18:00 – How might this affect Facebook’s business as a brand-safe platform? * 21:30 – The global political impact of this decision * 24:30 – Knock-on effect to other platforms like Twitter * 27:30 – What would Trump’s play be in a social media network * 33:30 – Facebook’s resiliency * 38:00 – The legacy of Trump’s social media use
On this week’s The Razor’s Edge, we’re talking Stitch Fix. The e-commerce apparel retailer has had quite a six months – a strong earnings report in December sent shares higher, propelled perhaps by high short interest in the name. That high short interest took on rocket fuel in January amidst the Gamestop frenzy. The air came out of the shares, and then the company reported a weaker earnings in March. And then co-founder and CEO Katrina Lake announced she would step down as CEO in August. So a lot going on.
The stock has passionate bulls and bears, and we try to sort out the bull case and whether it's a keeper.
Topics Covered * 2:45 minute mark – Daniel’s SFIX elevator pitch * 6:00 – How to peg a valuation for a unique approach * 12:00 – The value proposition and the edge * 20:00 – Using (or misusing) the Netflix parallel * 26:00 – Advantages from the back end side * 34:00 – Is this changing the game in apparel * 43:00 – The competitive threats that might come into play * 49:30 – What to make of Lake stepping down and final notes
Semiconductor shortages have been one of the big economic themes emerging in 2021, in our ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ pandemic stage. We have to mention the pandemic because that’s a proximate cause of many of the shortages and supply chain issues that have beset the semiconductor industry and many others. The Auto industry has been a headliner for having to shut production due to lack of semis. And with some grumbling between China and the US over Taiwan, the key role that island plays in the supply chain also looks like a vulnerability.
On today’s episode, we attempt to navigate the economic, geopolitical, and investing implications of all this talk, while zeroing in on the supply chain and its oligopolistic, specialized nature.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – The shortage and Covid dynamics in semis * 7:15 – Working through the supply chain itself * 16:45 – The consolidation and specialization along the chain * 20:30 – Distinguishing the auto industry’s demand needs, and the illustration of supply chain limits (or not?) * 28:00 – The role of the hyperscalers and what would happen if we built fabs in the US * 34:00 – TSM’s freezing effect on the China-Taiwan-U.S. relationships * 37:00 – Don’t forget the pandemic effects * 41:30 – China’s successes in the chip supply chain * 44:30 – The U.S.’s limits as a consumer market * 46:30 – Semiconductor market outlook in light of all of this * 56:00 – Last political notes for context
The Archegos Capital blow-up at the end of Q1 marked the second huge non-fundamental market event, mirroring the GameStop/Melvin Capital/vintage investing short squeeze dynamics of January. While these can feel like localized events, making or spoiling GSX or VIAC investors' quarters, they at the very least offer important reminders of risk management and understanding your underlying investments. We break down how something like this might happen and what it means for bystanders and active investors.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark - The Archegos and GameStop echoes * 10:00 - The scaling of the short squeeze strategy * 13:30 - Lone actor or market reflexivity at work? * 16:00 - What fundamentally changed during COVID for these sorts of names * 21:30 - The lack of an exit strategy * 27:00 - Aftershocks of this action * 33:00 - Adjusting to an elevated valuation environment and the leverage factor * 39:00 - The company and prime brokers’ perspective on this situation * 45:00 - Where do we go from here * 54:00 - The danger of consensus * 1:00:00 - Time to make weight for certain stocks
Bonus: Article from Michigan Radio on sewer issues
This week’s the Razor’s Edge takes a March Madness theme, as we break down a bracket of ideas.
We start off with PagerDuty, breaking down their very solid Q4 report and FY 2022 guidance, as well as the swagger management had on the call. Then we each pitch a new idea. Daniel talks up the favorable economics of Just Eat Takeaway (in the process of buying out GrubHub), and Akram pitches GoPro as a growing subscription business positioned perfectly for a reopening tailwind. We quiz each other on the theses and try to boil down what truly matters for each pitch.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark – PagerDuty Earnings review – confidence, use case expansion, bundling, valuation, the point product vs. platform elements, and when is it worth talking to management
Just Eat Takeaway Ready For Pick Up * 20:00 – The basic bull argument * 27:00 - The value proposition for customers and thinking through customer behavior * 36:00 – The founder-led angle * 46:00 – Working through the competition * 51:00 – Distinction in our investing styles
GoPro or Go Home * 54:30 – The GoPro case * 1:03:45 – Subscription economics for GPRO * 1:09:00 - How big of a post-COVID play is this and what about this over-extrapolating? * 1:15:00 -The Gamestonk context and why it helps or hurts the case * 1:17:30 – Time horizon for the GoPro trade
Some related items to read:
- Not Boring on the beginning of the end.
- Marc Barros on GoPro vs. Contour
- Daniel's Just Eat Takeaway pitch
- Akram's GoPro pitch
One of our regular areas of focus on the Razor’s Edge is the streaming space, and there are few people who are following that space as closely as Andrew Freedman of Hedgeye. To the point where his name has come up on our episodes more than once. So it was long overdue to have him join the Razor’s Edge to share what he’s seeing.
We focus on what’s going on in streaming and whether all the new entrants will have the endurance to make it in the long-term. We then drill into the story around FuBo, a company that Andrew has been vocally bearish about. We wrap up streaming with a look at Netflix’s next act, and then look into the new emergence of live audio as a competitive opportunity, and wrap up with a few questions sourced from Twitter followers.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark – What’s interesting about streaming right now, and the rise of the laggards * 13:00 – Is the streaming winnowing coming? * 22:00 – The pace and rhythm of great content * 27:30 – The FuBo bear case * 33:30 – FuBo’s target audience and other bull case points * 43:00 – The direction of sports programming and why this won’t be a replay of Netflix circa 2011 or Roku circa 2019 * 48:30 – Netflix’s next act * 56:30 – The audio space, and/or “Spaces” – Twitter, Spotify, Clubhouse, Facebook * 1:08:00 – Listener questions – Pinterest in a reopening environment; ROKU vs. TWTR in 10 years; Square buying Tidal; MTCH vs. BMBL
Andrew's work at Hedgeye: https://accounts.hedgeye.com/products/communications_pro/558!559
Hedgeye’s Terms of Service: https://www.hedgeye.com/terms_of_service
Definition of some terms:
- SVOD – Subscription Video on Demand
- AVOD – Advertising based Video on Demand
- OTT – Over the Top, TV delivered over the internet rather than through traditional cable (also an ‘80s movie)
- RSN – Regional Sports Networks
- VMPVD - Virtual Multichannel Video Programming Distributor
Just over a year ago, we released an episode of The Razor’s Edge called Correction City. As we lap the beginning of the pandemic, we also are starting to glimpse the end, and the market is starting to look like a long, strange trip. Bellwethers are moving lower, rotations are happening, and 40% revenue growth guidance isn't what it used to be.
We talk Zoom - one of the stocks that the market and we have been following most closely since last March - and then process the other major shifts in the market. We finish with a look at PagerDuty's upcoming earnings, which also leads us to Snowflake's imposing position.
Topics Covered * 4:00 minute mark - Initial review of the week that was * 9:00 - ZM’s report as a bellwether * 13:30 - What’s ahead for ZM * 20:30 – The importance of annual guidance on the Q4 call * 25:30 - What changed for the market, and what distinguishes Zoom from other SaaS winners * 33:30 - Wal-Mart’s (WMT) warning * 40:00 - What’s going on this week * 48:00 - Looking out a year ahead positioning wise * 58:00 - PagerDuty’s outlook and earnings preview * 1:04:30 - Snowflake’s positioning * 1:07:30 - Humility in the face of the weighing machine
This week on the Razor's Edge, we speak with Karim Atiyeh, a serial fintech entrepreneur. He is the co-founder of Ramp, a fast-growing spend management fintech company. He talks about the company's positioning and alignment with customers, what he learned from his time at Capital One after the credit card giant acquired his previous company, and what it was like launching a product a month before the pandemic began, from a New York office no less.
Topics Covered * 3:30 minute mark – Ramp’s target market and the distinction between focusing on transaction fees and spend management * 10:15 – Selling into the finance department and the effect on organizations * 14:45 – Ramp’s origin story and the opportunity for spend management in the market * 20:00 – Price transparency vs. dynamic pricing in SaaS * 23:15 – The fintech ecosystem * 28:15 – The importance of integrations, with Slack as an example * 34:15 – Launching a company in the face of COVID * 41:15 – The return to the office * 43:15 – Hiring during and after COVID * 48:15 – Remote effect on the workplace dynamic for new hires * 51:45 – Business spending changes during the pandemic * 54:45 – COVID Peak for many businesses * 1:05:15 – Peak Screen time/audio * 1:15:15 – The meme-iverse and the loudest voices in the financial social media ecosphere, and bitcoin * 1:21:15 – Karim’s investing takes, and Shopify
It's been a wild and, finally, fun ride for Twitter over the past 11 months. While everything feels like smooth sailing now for bulls, even as of our last episode on the stock post ex-President Trump ban in January, things weren't so clear. Despite that, the set-up was good enough for Akram's Razor to open an options trade into the earnings call (and for Daniel Shvartsman to open a small long position, which is a separate story).
We break down what happened with Twitter but also more of the mechanics of the options trade; why that trade, why Q4 and not Q3, whether to hold it into the call itself, and what's left for Analyst Day this week. All of this happens within the context of the broader macro environment and what growth investors might start extrapolating as we (fingers crossed!) round our way out of the full COVID environment this year. So we bring a dollop of that context into the discussion as well.
Topics Covered * 4:00 minute mark - How does event-driven trading of options fit into a broader portfolio strategy? * 12:00 - Reviewing our record on Twitter and how/when Akram's views flipped over 2020 - the importance of narrative shifts, product adoption/development, having a variant view, and understanding the other side of the trade * 22:30 - Twitter's setup going into the start of 2021 * 28:45 - Why not own the biggest growth stocks instead of a Twitter? * 34:30 - Market participants' tendency to extrapolate in the short-term, and the misuse of 'compounding' * 40:00 - Defining mania * 48:00 - The strum and drang around Twitter at the beginning of 2021 and the March options trade * 1:04:00 - The Q4 reaction and what's left for the analyst day * 1:11:00 - Twitter's differentiation in the subscription space * 1:22:00 - The importance of understanding the process * 1:27:00 - Peak screen time
Amidst a year of web acceleration, changing habits, and questions about what legacy the pandemic will have on our day to day lives, it helps to go back to roots. One company that has both been through its share of web-usage cycles and has an interesting view on the state of the world is Meetup, and on today's episode we speak with their CEO, David Siegel.
The company, founded back in 2002, has seen a lot over the years, and saw several years worth of activity in the past 18 months - a divestiture from WeWork (which had bought the company a couple years prior), a pandemic that required reversing a fundamental business policy, and a pandemic that placed more urgency on the need to meet with others, even as it made it harder to do so. We speak with David about the past 12-18 months, the future of meetings, how much of our online meeting environment will stick around, what Clubhouse and the audio bubble might mean for meetings, and the importance and challenge of online moderation and community management.
Topics Covered
- 3:00 minute mark - Background on Meetup’s model
- 9:00 - The COVID + WeWork period
- 12:00 - The WeWork relationship/divestiture
- 15:30 - Why WeWork/Meetup didn’t work
- 20:30 - What does it mean for Meetup to go all digital
- 24:00 - Meetup differentiation
- 27:30 – Modern web moderation and how to tackle that issue
- 31:00 - Talking through pandemic effect on meetings, and how do the new online tools and in-person integrate?
- 42:30 - Combinations and SPAC liquidity in the market
- 44:15 – Advertising/promotion as a business angle
Check out David's new podcast here: https://www.meetuppodcast.com/
We haven’t covered artificial intelligence much on The Razor’s Edge, but it’s a theme that is only going to grow in market salience over the years to come. May Habib, this week's guest, has firsthand involvement with that theme. She is the founder and CEO of Writer, an AI business writing assistant. She explains her company's pivot to us, as well as sharing a little bit of Writer’s secret sauce, taking us through the COVID effects on the company and its end market, and casting light on the start-up funding market and where AI might go in the years to come. And given her background in wealth management and investment banking, we couldn’t let her go without asking for her take on the markets, especially semiconductors and SaaS, but also of course Twitter.
Topics Covered * 3:30 minute mark - Background on Writer and its target userbase * 9:00 – Writer’s pivot in product and the coincidence with COVID * 11:15 - How the pivot affected the AI models and the sales approach * 15:30 - Differentiation for Writer and tailwinds in the business * 19:00 - How building a SaaS has changed and the importance of a pivot * 23:00 - Looking back on Covid * 26:00 - Post-Covid World and the growing need for writing * 29:30 - The global angle and the role of English 26:00 * 32:30 - AI replacing jobs 29:00 * 34:30 - Talking markets – semiconductors and SaaS – COVID hangover, and the future of work from home
We referred to In Defense Of The Pivot on the episode: https://upfront.com/thoughts/goat-in-defense-of-the-pivot
The 2020-21 bull market has seen many familiar themes recycled amidst a very liquid public market environment. The rare earths market, and its flag bearer Molycorp, may not have been the most obvious boom to re-emerge, but here we are. Molycorp's descendant, MP Materials, came public via a SPAC last year and is trading at a higher valuation than the legacy company ever did.
To break down the recent moves and what it means, we speak with Don Lay, VP of Corporate Development at Medallion Resources, a rare earths technology company based in Canada. Don was previously CEO of the company and has a lot of firsthand experience to share. We go through the ins and outs of this story, including China’s market position, the import of electrification in cars, and how MP Materials is back on the scene.
Topics Covered * 3:15 minute mark - Background on Don as well as MP and rare earths boom * 8:45 - The Senkaku Islands incident * 12:00 - Processing the rare earth minerals and the market power there * 15:30 - Where China’s competitive edge comes from and Lynas's role in the industry * 24:00 - The challenges of developing a greenfield rare earths project * 26:30 - Demand for rare earths * 30:30 - The end of the internal combustion engine * 35:30 - Explaining MP Materials’ revival * 41:30 - Where is the market power in rare earths * 46:00 - How the rare earths market might evolve * 51:00 - Where electric and hybrid vehicle demand goes and what it means * 55:00 - How the EV frenzy affect operations for rare earth miners * 1:00:00 - How this compares to past bubbles * 1:03:00 - Tesla's position * 1:08:00 - Background on Medallion * 1:14:00 - The environmental costs
GameStop has become one of those rare market stories that has transcended the world of finance and entered pop culture; the most recent example might be the negative oil pricing last April. It's a fascinating and weird story for a number of reasons, and whether or not it has knock-on effects in the market it is an important story.
To break it down in an emergency episode, we speak with Jaime Lester, an experienced long-short professional investor who has been on the podcast before. He's done extensive work on GameStop, so we start with the fundamentals, before zooming back out to all the other factors. Those other factors all spin back to the start - do the fundamentals actually matter, and if not, why is that a problem?
Topics Covered * 1:00 minute mark - Gamestop fundamentally * 10:00 - Underlying forces at play here * 17:00 - The tether between value and price * 24:30 - The consequences of this environment * 31:00 - Why is this time different * 38:00 - The Reddit dynamic
We talk Netflix again this week. As you may recall, Akram published a lengthy report late last year on why Netflix was and would remain the king of streaming. The company reported earnings last week, and it was a bit of a royal flex, as they beat on subscriber numbers and boasted that they would not need to raise debt capital going forward. The stock popped 17% the next day. So what did the market miss going in, and what does that mean for Netflix and peers going forward? We break it down, answer a few listener questions, and try to figure out what Netflix’s story going forward will be.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark - Quick quarter reaction * 12:00 - Why is Netflix winning * 21:00 - How the story is shifting * 27:30 - What Netflix’s margins actually say * 38:00 - Netflix’s moat and the competition * 47:00 - Forward outlook for NFLX * 51:00 - Praise for management * 55:30- Discoverability challenge for Netflix * 1:05:30 – Netflix’s content strategy * 1:10:00 - The fate of the theater * 1:14:30 - Netflix’s tech positioning * 1:24:00 - Pressure on the competition
There's something about Twitter that leads to market knee-jerk reactions and, depending on how you look at it, opportunities for investors. After Twitter decided to permanently ban the sitting President from the platform, a lot of questions came up, and the market's immediate answer was to sell the stock off to the tune of a 6.5% drop.
Thus, we invited Rajiv Sud, a former Twitter employee and ad-tech veteran as well as a private investor and previous The Razor's Edge guest, on to break down the news. We also answer listener questions and call out the events Twitter shareholders should pay attention to (hint: think February, not January). It's a fun one, and while we don't have a contents list this week due to the short turnaround for recording, you can get a sense of the questions we answered here.
Happy new year! We kick 2021 off on the Razor's Edge by looking at a couple of the biggest trends from 2020 – COVID market distortions and SPACs. Our guest is George Arison, Co-CEO of Shift Technologies, an online used car seller. Used cars were a surprisingly hot market in 2020, in part spurring Shift to move up their calendar to go public by a year. They went public via a SPAC. So our conversation centers on the two topics; how wild was 2020 and how do you plan for the following year; and why go public with a SPAC and what was that like?
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark – Background on George and on Shift * 7:30 – Where does the value add or competitive advantage come in? * 12:00 – What the “value” part of the used car market looks like * 14:15 – How Shift interacts with/competes with dealers * 18:00 – What 2020 has looked like for Shift * 29:00 – How the go-public plan shifted for Shift in 2020 * 33:00 – The SPAC fit and the questions raised * 37:00 – What do SPAC negotiations look like? * 40:00 – Surprises in the public market * 43:30 – Planning for 2021 after the COVID rush * 49:00 – What about the COVID hangover
Tesla entered the S&P 500 yesterday. What does that mean for the long-running bull vs. bear battle? A month after posting our interview with a bull - Rajiv Sud - we speak to Mark Spiegel, one of the longest-tenured, loudest, and most notorious members of TeslaQ, the short Tesla camp. The question, after a ruinous 1100% run over the past 14 months and a wild market in general, is whether there’s still electricity left in the bull case, or whether the bear case might finally bag its whale. Along with asking Mark about that and his portfolio management, we also touch on a few other topics ranging from micro-cap long ideas to inflation to Mark’s twitter presence, and I hope you’ll enjoy the conversation.
Topics Covered * 5:00 minute mark - The state of TSLAQ * 9:00 - Tesla's Q3 - a sign of the bull thesis or dim hope? * 17:00 - The competition bear thesis and what's taken so long? * 22:00 - Last year's Q3 take-off for Tesla shares * 25:00 - Tesla's advantage * 29:00 - The regulatory landscape * 36:00 - Managing a short Tesla position * 42:00 - On the long side, a few micro-cap ideas - DAIO, AVNW, EVOL, JCS * 53:00 - Twitter presence * 1:01:00 - The broader EV bubble - why not short elsewhere? * 1:11:00 - The Musk fervor * 1:20:00 - Portfolio juggling * 1:25:00 - Fighting Tesla's hero journey * 1:29:00 - Tesla's broader influence and the role of the SEC * 1:32:00 - The onset of inflation and the gold hedge (GLD)
Third time appears to be the charm. After seeing the football get pulled away from investors after Q1 and Q2 earnings, Slack and PagerDuty brought much cheer to shareholders, in the spirit of the holiday season. Slack has agreed to a deal with Salesforce.com and PagerDuty reported another solid quarter that finally woke the market up to its consistent growth opportunity.
We break down all that news. To do so, we bring on previous guests Jens Schumacher, CPO at Sajari, and Justen Stepka, co-founder of Enterprise Fund, both Atlassian alums, as well as Rich, a cloud CRM CEO.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark - Initial reactions to the deal * 16:00 - How does this fit into Salesforce? * 21:00 - Slack's future development as part of a bigger company * 29:30 - Was this a defensive move for CRM, especially for pricing? * 43:30 - Who loses in this deal? Zendesk, e.g. and Microsoft * 49:00 - How big a deal was (and how hard was it to make) Slack Connect? * 54:00 - Who else should have bought Slack? Google and Zoom discussion * 1:05:00 - PagerDuty Earnings recap * 1:15:00 - When does ServiceNow make their play? And breaking down the integration issues and what that means for a moat.
Famed activist investor Daniel Loeb wrote a letter to Disney management arguing that the time to go all in on streaming is now. We've been following the streaming wars pretty closely, and we decided to break down the letter and then reconsider Disney and Netlfix's positions a year after Disney+'s launch, and 8 months into a pandemic that has accelerated the streaming game. The question came down to 'what battleground do these companies want to actually fight on'?
Topics Covered * 2:15 minute mark – The need for capital and Disney’s studio business history | * 10:00 – The SaaS parallel and Disney’s flywheel | * 16:30 – The new bundle, different from the old bundle? | * 24:30 – The 5d Chess around the streaming wars | * 27:00 – How enduring is the event model, theaters or otherwise? | * 30:00 – Costs in the new content world | * 35:45 – the looming presence of the big fish and how much growth is there still out there | * 43:00 – Takeaways for Netflix and Disney | * 53:00 – What sort of game are we playing |
Works cited or that are relevant:
- Daniel Loeb's letter to Disney - https://www.scribd.com/document/479149667/Third-Point-Letter-to-Disney-October-2020
- Akram's Razor's reaction piece - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4380091-disney-field-of-streams
- Doug Shapiro - https://medium.com/swlh/one-clear-casualty-of-the-streaming-wars-profit-683304b3055d
- ProPublica - https://www.propublica.org/article/meet-the-customer-service-reps-for-disney-and-airbnb-who-have-to-pay-to-talk-to-you
We continue our conversation with Rajiv Sud, ad tech veteran and private and public markets investors. In this episode - essentially parts 2 and 3 of our conversation - we start with Slack and its challenges, as well as its surprising similarities to Twitter. We also quiz Rajiv on his time at AdMob and his outlook for the private tech sector, before concluding with a breakdown of his Tesla bull thesis.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark – Slack’s position * 6:00 – the two-front war, with Intel as an example * 9:00 – Slack’s marketing challenge, and it not being enough to be the product winner * 17:00 – Creating the urgency around Slack’s product * 21:00 – The marketing pitch * 24:00 – Chat as an engagement tool, and the fit with subscription businesses * 29:00 – A use case for Slack * 34:00 – A Twitter content play * 39:00 – AdMob buyout questions * 43:00 – Private market – what is Rajiv seeing? Competition and ninja tools * 49:00 – How does the SaaS competition play out among smaller companies? * 59:00 – The VC need for exits and how that affects the broader market * 1:07:30 – Rajiv’s Tesla bull case – software focused * 1:12:00 – The Elon Musk factor for Tesla bulls * 1:17:00 – Dissecting the fully autonomous driving future – who gets there first? * 1:25:00 – And once we get there, who is actually the winner?
Oops, it happened again. A company we follow closely on The Razor’s Edge reported earnings, met or beat expectations, and then sold off heavily along with a major market sell-off. Last time it was PagerDuty, this time it’s Twitter.
To work through the quarter and perhaps the angst and anxiety around it, we speak with Rajiv Sud. Rajiv is a Silicon Valley veteran, with time logged at Google, AdMob – which was bought out by Google while he was there, at TellApart, and then at Twitter after Twitter bought TellApart. He’s been out of Twitter for about two years but as a shareholder and a frequent tweeter, he still follows the company closely. We break down the company's ad server issues and why they may be in the past, the deliberate approach the company takes to product releases, and why Jack Dorsey is maybe fine as Twitter's CEO.
Topics Covered * 4:45 minute mark – Q3 Reaction * 8:00 – One-off effects of a weird 2020 for comparison’s sake * 14:30 – The challenges with the ad server and what changed * 19:30 – The Jack Dorsey question * 24:30 – The stand-alone nature of each company’s ad stack * 28:30 – The ad-tech graveyard * 30:30 – The MAP delay * 36:30 – How Twitter engages users, and the step-up from occasional to active * 41:30 – When does this scale, or the rising expenses * 53:30 – Differences between Google and Twitter from an insider’s perspective * 58:30 – Twitter’s engagement and the upside or money left on the table in the subscription ecosystem * 1:01:30 – Controlling the narrative
This week’s episode is a conversation with Jaime Lester. Jaime has been a professional investor for more than two decades, has a lot of experience with short selling, as evidenced from our conversation with him back on episode #3, on Invitae. We revisit Invitae during this conversation, but we're more focused on the overall macro picture. Whatever happens in the last 8 weeks of the year, it's been a wild ride, and it's worth taking a wider view to understand everything.
We cover SPACs, influencer investing, the manic element, the line between fraud and pivoting, and why this does not resemble the great financial crisis.
Topics covered * 2:20 minute mark – high level take on what makes this market different * 11:00 – Blowing up the GFC comparison * 21:30 – Fundamental restructuring * 27:30 – The manic trading element * 33:45 – Why the new traders are winning * 41:30 – Staying out of the way * 52:30 – The SPAC phenomenon and what is fraud in the current market? * 1:03:30 – Influencer Investing and Invitae * 1:17:30 – The cult of the founder * 1:24:30 – TAMs: Valuations as compared to TAMs, how much do TAMs mean for a business’s prospects over time?
Twilio has had an exciting fall. First, Microsoft announced Azure Communication Services, viewed as a shot across the bow at Twilio in the developer driven communications space. Then, Twilio had its first investor day in three years, refreshing investors on their trajectory. Lastly, Twilio announced the purchase of Segment, a customer data platform that signals Twilio’s climbing of the value chain.
To break it all down, we bring on Captain Twilio, an experienced investor whose portfolio features one stock, Twilio, and Justen Stepka, our frequent guest and an Atlassian and, more relevant to today’s conversation, Docker alum who has firsthand experience with Segment as a user. This is a fun conversation for anyone following Twilio, and it also adds interesting perspective on business strategy and SaaS valuations.
Topics Covered * 3:15 minute mark - The Segment value proposition * 9:15 - Recapping Twilio Signal and what it says for Twilio’s strategy * 13:15 - So why did Segment sell? * 19:15 - How Segment fits in * 24:15 - Single customer risk as well as enterprise opportunities * 28:45 - The analytical edge that comes from a data tool like Segment * 31:45 - Build vs. buy and microservices architecture vs. monolithic when thinking about data * 36:45 - Entering another giant’s territory…the pending showdown with Salesforce * 48:15 - The right valuation approach and what metrics (and dollars) matter most
References: Segment blog on gross margins: https://segment.com/blog/the-10m-engineering-problem/
Jeff Lawson interview with Ben Thompson: https://stratechery.com/2020/twilio-acquires-segment-what-is-segment-an-interview-with-twilio-ceo-jeff-lawson/
This week’s The Razor’s Edge goes back out to the streets. We speak with Ali Naqvi, owner of a ride-share car supplier in New York, about his experience with the COVID lockdown, what he’s hearing from his customers – rideshare drivers – and the state of New York. While a few work from home comments pop up hear and there, this is more focused on the state of Uber and Lyft’s end markets and what that might mean for a broader economy. Ali is a lifelong New Yorker and has a rolodex of celebrity encounters and Al Pacino quotes to pull from, and this is a fun conversation.
Topics Covered * 2:15 minute mark - Background on the business * 6:00 - Recounting the COVID story from March onward, dealing with vehicle returns * 12:40 - Drivers still on the road throughout - the adjustments needed * 22:00 -The hit to rider demand * 27:30 - Uber's support (or lack thereof) * 36:00 - The scene in New York now for rideshare demand - why it was worse than it seemed, why there are reasons for optimism now * 54:00 - The outlook for New York City, the effect of the social unrest, any crime knock-ons, and where does the city go from here?
We continue our discussion with Jens Schumacher and Justen Stepka, long-time Atlassian vets who have seen the software sector inside and out. We take a broader focus in this discussion, looking at SaaS competition, the importance of integrated cloud stacks, and the broader COVID and macro set-up. This leads to us diving in on Atlassian, on PagerDuty, on Zoom, and on Snowflake, among other topics.
Topics Covered * 2:30 minute mark - The onset of competition - Asana for Atlassian, Microsoft for Twilio, and writ large * 10:00 - The market's roving eye, excitement over IPOs or hot tickets vs. steady growing behemoths - Zoom vs. Cisco, Snowflake vs. Box vs. Salesforce, and the ongoing runroom for cloud growth and small/mid-caps like PagerDuty * 14:00 - The value of having multiple revenue streams, and the importance of Rundeck to PagerDuty as a first step * 17:00 - Microsoft's power move and Zoom's taking advantage of their position * 20:00 - The commitment to your cloud stack for a decade, and the challenge for incumbents of diversifying - Hipchat vs. Slack and Bitbucket vs. GitHub * 26:00 - Data Center redundancy and setting up your network * 32:00 - Snowflake dive, and the echo with VMWare; its competitive position vs. Redshift, Teradata, etc. * 46:15 - COVID-19 Status update around the world
We speak with a couple of Atlassian alums on this week's episode, as the first of a two-parter. Our guests are Justen Stepka, co-owner of Enterprise Fund, Atlassian alum, and previous The Razor's Edge guest (episode #16); and Jens Schumacher, employee number #12 at Atlassian, and the Head of Product for Jira Service Deck, who is now Chief Product Officer at Sajari, a search technology company. In today's episode, we talk about the Atlassian mafia effect and go more into focus on Sajari. This leads to a lot about Elastic Search, about the e-commerce market, and about SaaS development and machine learning that should be of interest.
Topics Covered * 3:00 – Jens's background and the emergence of the Atlassian mafia * 10:00 – What does it mean that a cohort of former colleagues keep working together? * 13:30 – Atlassian roots and background * 16:00 - Snowflake digression * 18:00 – The challenges in search * 26:00 – Breaking down machine learning vs. algorithmic search * 35:00 - What stage of the e-commerce rush are we in? * 42:00 – How much of this will stick for e-commerce
In a growth-y market, it pays to have a fresh perspective. We interview WallStSaaSBro, a notorious member of fintwit who has firsthand experience on what's going on in the software sector. As an account executive in New York who has seen one sector - healthcare - go beyond acceleration into actual soup to nuts adoption of modern technology in 2020 - he has a value-added take on what's going on in the sector. He also has an interesting story and we have a wideranging conversation on his background, the state of New York, and the state of SaaS.
This call was recorded August 28th.
Topics Covered * 4:45 minute mark – Background and setting the NYC scene * 12:45 – The changing expectations for sales hires at the big SaaS firms. * 14:45 – Learning from unlikely sources – Martin Shkreli. * 18:45 – AT&T as the jumping off point. * 23:15 – The home healthcare market opportunity. * 28:45 – Communications as a service. * 32:45 – Parallels to past bubbly markets. * 37:00 – CRM and WDAY stepping up – a beat? * 40:15 – The 20-something tech perspective both personal and professional - ZoomInfo. * 55:45 – Sales climate. * 58:45 – WFH Impact. * 1:03:15 – What does New York look like? * 1:07:15 – Is New York dead? * 1:20:15 – How could sales change, and automation. * 1:25:15 – SaaS Bro’s top career investments. * 1:34:15 – Explaining Coupa Software and Spend Management. * 1:36:15 – The cybersecurity challenge. * 1:40:15 – Covering Slack. * 1:49:15 – The value of sales as a career path.
The end of summer often serves up surprises for the market, and this year was no different. The cadence of Zoom reporting and setting the market ablaze towards the end of earnings season, followed by PagerDuty reporting just as the euphoria faded is an all too familiar one for PagerDuty shareholders.
We discuss the smaller SaaS company's report and why, for all the talk of billings, net retention, and everything else, this was a solid fundamental report. And why, amidst a September 1st that could be a market turning point and a bunch of crazy factors, it didn't matter at all. We also preview Slack's report, talk SaaS consolidation, get meta about the investing podcasting boom, and talk about why an IPO matters for more than a company's initial trading.
Topics Covered * 4:00 minute mark – The laggards rally, with CRM as a stand-in. * 13:00 – Bull market philosophies. * 18:20 – Long-term outlook for PD. * 21:30 – The expectations and comp set for SaaS names. * 27:45 – Breaking down PagerDuty’s report – what about the billings matter. * 37:00 – How to look at a SaaS, and the differences between companies in the sector. * 41:30 – PD’s expansion, and telling their story. * 45:00 – Pager Duty maintaining their competitive lead. * 51:15 – Leftover damage from the 2019 IPO, and net dollar-based retention rate. * 56:00 – The broader market pullback. * 1:02:00 – COVID-19 vs. Y2K. * 1:07:00 – PD’s runway going forward, how it is not a COVID play, and the competitive bounds on all players here. * 1:12:45 – Consolidation and the parallels to streaming or semiconductors. * 1:19:00 – Slack Earnings call preview. * 1:23:00 – September 1st – Euphoria peak? * 1:31:00 – The podcast boom as a sign of the market. * 1:34:00 – Last notes on PagerDuty’s earnings. * 1:38:30 – The importance of storytelling and the narrative, and the market context.
We flip the script. Daniel pitches Akram on a new idea - f5 Networks - and Akram plays the role of portfolio manager, hearing out and testing the thesis. While Daniel might hope you like the idea itself, this episode should be a little more educational, as we break down what makes it a good or not-so good pitch, what's missing, and what could go into the thesis next. It also highlights a lot of the challenges in both growth and value investing.
We do get into other ideas, including Dropbox, and into the state of the market and whether the Alteryx report is a warning sign.
Topics Covered * 3:30 minute mark - What brought us to f5? * 6:30 - The long case for F5 * 10:30 - How the ADC market used to size up 7:00 * 13:45 – The inflection point for f5 * 16:00 – What is the future of the ADC * 21:00 – What is the competition * 24:30 The nature of service revenues * 28:30 – What is it exactly that f5 does here * 33:00 – Revisiting value and what does a low multiple mean, and the Alteryx report * 39:00 – When the numbers aren’t enough * 42:45 – The research process * 47:30 – The limits of value investing * 49:30 – Dropbox as another example * 55:30 – Growth vs. value, or story vs. numbers * 59:30 – Studying Tesla * 1:04:30 – Alteryx – exception or warning? * 1:10:45 – The hunt for the coming inflection * 1:15:30 – Covid-19 Bull market geniuses and the market climate * 1:22:30 – IPOs vs. SPACs and what that says about where we are
Reading materials:
Full pitch on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4369321
What Makes Stocks Go Up: https://dubra.substack.com/p/the-anatomy-of-stocks-that-go-up
Life Magazine - "New Kid On The Street" (scroll to 62a): https://books.google.es/books?id=bU8EAAAAMBAJ&printsec=frontcover&hl=es&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false
Dropbox: The First Dead Decacorn - https://alexdanco.com/2015/08/24/dropbox-the-first-dead-decacorn/
With the economy working through a recession - though certainly a unique mix of crosswinds - we thought it would be good to get out of the software space. Scott Norton, co-founder and CEO of Sir Kensington's, joins the Razor's Edge to talk about what he's seeing in this macro environment, both as someone who started out in finance and as the CEO of the condiments maker. He shares insights from the company's founding in the last recession and what makes the modern consumer goods company different from the big brands (though the big brands can still win, he points out). And since this is the Razor's Edge, we still talk a little bit of SaaS.
Topics Covered * 3:00 minute mark – Sir Kensington’s calling its shot, but also missing out on another big startup * 11:00 – How did the last recession shape the firm, and Scott’s career? * 15:00 – The market’s liquidity rush and does the bill ever come due? * 21:30 –Past recessions and Japan as models to keep an eye on as we work through this period * 30:00 – What does 2020 look like for Sir K both in terms of work from home and changing habits? * 37:00 – The feedback loop for the modern consumer goods company * 40:30 – Cross pollination in the Unilever family * 43:00 – What this period means for habit dislocation * 46:00 – Planning amidst uncertainty * 51:00 – New software tools?
A few links referenced in the conversation:
- Premium Pete interview with Scott: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds01YpbWfRE
- Healthyish's Toum Recipe: https://www.bonappetit.com/story/toum-recipe
- Sir Kensington's social media group: https://tastebuds.socialmedialink.com/members/sign_in#/
Today’s episode continues our conversation with Captain Twilio. Our guest, a financial professional and a friend of Akram’s, invests personally in a very concentrated fashion. Last time, we spoke about his previous position, Netflix. This time, we cover his current position, that’s a single position, Twilio. Akram and he talk about why he’s so confident in the stock, the risks of such concentration, and how to think about SaaS companies or really any sort of company in the current market.
Topics Covered - 5:00 minute mark – The initial TWLO long case and the inherent risks from the start
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12:30 – The Uber ‘gift’ and the shift to selling to firms; and Flex
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15:30 – The value of new technologies – cost savings – and do they really deliver?
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18:15 – Uneconomic end markets for Twilio – a risk?
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21:00 – The dynamics of pricing models, and Twilio’s competitiveness
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28:00 – The relative value of valuation vs. focus
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31:45 – What cost savings means for TAM analysis, and the importance of TAM analysis (or its limits)
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36:00 – Wild IPO pricing and what it means
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40:15 – Why the concentration
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45:40 – Survivorship bias and growth investing
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49:00 – Market multiples and the importance of company culture
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53:30 – Revisiting the macro element, and what sort of 100-year events are happening
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59:00 – Echoes of 2000
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1:01:00 – If things go back to normal, what happens to SaaS
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1:07:00 – Risk to Q2 earnings season and guidance
We're joined by friend of The Razor's Edge and professional investor Captain Twilio, as he's known. As someone who has only owned two stocks in his portfolio since 2012 - Netflix from 2012-2017 and Twilio in the three years since - he has a laser focused approach to growth investing, and it's worked.
In the wake of Netflix's most recent, pandemic-fueled earnings report, we brought him on to see where he thinks the company sits, and what we all make of the report and Netflix's positioning. We also cover Captain's Twilio position at length, though that will be part two of this episode, coming out around Twilio's earnings.
Topics Covered * 3:30 - Background on the Captain's positioning * 7:30 - Understanding the old Netflix long case and the growth investor mindset * 12:30 - Why swap out? * 14:30 - Attention span issue and the new threat of Tiktok * 21:00 - The competitive landscape * 27:00 - The old distribution vs. content question * 30:00 - The streaming wars and what attrition looks like * 34:30 - The most recent earnings call, and what lands are left for Netflix to conquer? * 43:00 - Peak Hollywood and our changing viewing habits
Relevant Links:
Akram's Razor - Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over
Vox - Land of the Giants Podcast Season 2
We've gone to some length covering Slack, Zoom, and other software companies, as the 2020 work from home environment has accelerated and amplified business's rush to the cloud. But what about email, that old standby? Where does it fit in?
We got the chance to speak with Rahul Vohra, someone whose career has been built on optimizing email. He founded Rapportive, a Gmail plug-in, before selling that to LinkedIn for what was reported to be $15M. He is now the founder and CEO of Superhuman, a service that also builds on gmail and is dedicated to providing the fastest email experience ever. He filled us in on what Superhuman is seeing in the 2020 market, whether a $360/year product is consigned to a niche, what the entrant of a new competitor - Hey, from Basecamp - portends, and how gamification goes right or wrong. He also shared his thoughts on the recent Apple app store arguments that Hey prompted, and what his favorite video games were growing up.
Topics Covered: * 2:30 minute mark - The role of email in the modern collaboration landscape: Is Email dead? * 7:30 – Initial impact of asynchronicity, work from home, COVID * 10:30 – Superhuman user experience * 16:30 – The onboarding process, that Verge review, and unit economics * 23:30 – The niche question * 29:30 – Competition, Hey’s entrance into the market * 42:30 – The Communications bundling/unbundling * 46:30 – Demographic questions * 52:30 – Among the giants * 54:30 – App Store controversy * 57:30 – Gamification * 1:02:30 – Public SaaS valuations and what is possible for start-ups
Sources worth checking out in context of this conversation:
- Walt Mossberg: Yes, You've Still Got Mail
- The Smart but Scattered Guide to Success: How to Use Your Brain’s Executive Skills to Keep Up, Stay Calm, and Get Organized at Work and at Home (Book)
- Verge: Superhuman's email app is overhyped and overpriced
- Churn FM: How Superhuman avoids churn by systematically increasing product-market fit (Podcast)
- First Round: How Superhuman Built An Engine To Find Product/Market Fit
- TheInformation: The Tech Entrepreneur Who Loves To Troll Silicon Valley
A quick update about the programming on this channel - this channel will be only featuring the Razor's Edge going forward. To get new Value Investor's Edge Live podcasts, subscribe to the Marketplace Roundtable Podcast channel, available here:
iTunes/Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Stitcher
Seeking Alpha
One of the stranger dislocations in 2020 has been the behavior of stocks that are bound to or have already filed bankruptcy, with Hertz's offering of new equity this week as the biggest example of the phenomenon. We speak with Sam Zughayer, managing director of Berenson & Company, about what might explain this, what he's seeing, and where this may end up. Topics Covered
4:00 – Where Sam gets involved in the process normally
8:00 – What makes this time different
14:00 – What the government learned in 2009 and how that affects things
18:30 – Rule of contract law in the current climate
21:00 – The implication of the Hertz ruling
27:00 – The capital structure component and the structural effects for business
32:00 – The Hertz precedent and effect on other bankruptcies
35:00 – The longer-term legacies of this period
38:30 – The problem with shale oil
45:00 – Is this unhealthy? The Zombie element of sustaining firms.
47:00 – And the formerly healthy companies that fall, what of them?
50:00 – Looking back at stock buybacks
53:00 – Will behavior change?
We visit the software as a service sector for the third time in a row, as the earnings week we were waiting for came to pass. Zoom reported the so-called 'greatest quarter ever in software', and skewed expectations for peers like PagerDuty and Slack. So, does the market have the reaction right, and where do we go from here? Akram's Razor and Daniel Shvartsman break it down. Topics Covered
2:00 minute mark – Digging into Zoom's guidance
6:00 – The timing of PagerDuty and Slack's earnings (two days after Zoom's).
8:00 – What about the expansion in large clients for Zoom and potential new verticals
13:30 – How did Zoom's report affect PagerDuty/Slack's reports
18:00 – Why isn’t guidance going higher for some of these SaaS names?
28:00 – The longer onboarding cycle for Slack/PagerDuty
33:00 – The convergence of the attention economy
36:00 – The Dropbox angle
42:00 – Ramping up of adoption curves
48:00 – Macro and sector context to keep in mind
We continue to follow the software as a service sector and the impact of the work from home world, but this time with an outside perspective. Justen Stepka, the founder of Authentisoft and then a longtime product management executive at Atlassian and Docker, joined us to talk about his positions in Slack and Atlassian and what makes the companies stand out. Currently the co-CEO/co-founder of Enterprise Fund, a private equity firm, he also shares his views on the work from home environment we're in and its potential knock-on effects, as well as what he's seeing in private markets.
Topics Covered
2:30 minute mark - The importance of R&D in retention
6:00 - Product stickiness vs. ease of use
11:30 - Evaluating R&D as a competitive edge
15:00 - The importance of dogfooding
18:00 - Okta's position
23:30 - How can a software company really be on sale in this market?
28:45 - ServiceNow's position
30:00 - What's next in the industry, where is Justen watching, and what does the private market look like?
36:30 - The change in perspective from being an insider to an outside investor
41:00 - Work from Home and its broader effects
52:00 - Commercial real estate
With attention still focused on the tanker segment, J Mintzmyer speaks to underfollowed Torm PLC about what they're seeing in the wake of a solid Q1 earnings report and Q2 outlook. Topics Covered
1:15 minute mark - Overview of current product tanker markets:
3:15 - Differences between LR & MR markets?
7:00 - How many of your LR2s are trading dirty vs. clean?
9:15 - How long is the destocking period likely to last, impact to rates?
14:00 - Capital allocation priorities at this time?
17:00 - Nearly 25 ships aged 15+, how are these performing? Plans to sell?
21:15 - Any levers available to close NAV discount?
24:00 - Free float is very thin, is there an ability to boost this without dilution?
30:15 - Crew replacements ongoing or still stuck on water?
35:00 - Current newbuild environment: Shipyards aggressively discounting yet?
37:45 - What differentiates Torm from peers and competitors?
The software as a service sector has passed its first recession test in flying colors, as the nature of the coronavirus market has led to a increased business for these companies. With two of the most popular names - Slack and Zoom - due to report in a couple weeks, Akram's Razor and Daniel Shvartsman check in on the state of the sector and whether work from home is a benefit or a liability. Topics Covered:
3:00 minute mark – What explains a big move like Twilio's
7:00 - The broader valuation context
15:00 - The prevailing dynamic of competition
21:00 - Valuation pair mismatches – DDOG/NEWR, PD/EVBG, WORK/ZM
36:30 – Leaving the 10x EV/sales barrier in the past
46:00 – Where does Slack go when the light bulb turns on?
55:30 – the NFLX parallel for Zoom and the search for a pivot
1:03:00 – Slack earnings preview
J Mintzmyer speaks with Ardmore Shipping management about Q1 and the fast-moving product tanker section. Topics Covered 1:00 minute mark - What’s the underlying trade in the product tanker markets? 2:30 - Thoughts on broker rates versus actual ‘market levels?’ 5:30 - Difference in voyages in progress versus completed QTD? 6:30 - Thoughts on chemical side of the business, rates coming in lower? 8:45 - Shift in dividend policy, shift to deleveraging? 12:00 - Is Ardmore aligned? Can we trust you not to blow money on ships? 16:00 - At what point do you have to repurchase shares? 18:30 - Repurchases versus secondhand vessel acquisitions. 22:00 - Review of normalized ROA and ROE? 23:15 - Review of normal average MR product market? 27:00 - How do you communicate a ‘normalized value’? 30:15 - Visibility and thoughts on product floating storage volumes? 32:00 - Indications from customers/markets regarding terminal capacity? 34:30 - Parting thoughts for investors in Ardmore or product tankers?
In the most ambitious crossover event in Seeking Alpha podcast history, we turn the tables around. J Mintzmyer joins Akram's Razor and Daniel Shvartsman to talk the tanker trade, which is a hotly discussed topic in the markets these days. While the tanker rates and industry set up would seem to align with a generational shift, share prices have yet to pick up. Recorded at the beginning of a busy week for shipping sector earnings, it should provide some interesting background for people looking at this trade and the sector more generally.
Topics Covered
2:00 minute mark - The endurance of the shipping cycle
12:00 - Mean reversion for Value?
18:00 - The oil crash and commodity ETFs
22:00 - The abnormalities in this cycle
27:00 - How supply and demand have lined up
31:00 - Investor reactions
35:30 - The Macro context
46:00 - Dry bulk woes
49:30 - Talking the downside in the tanker trade
54:00 - The management and capital allocation question
58:00 - Getting down to some picks
J Mintzmyer spoke with Frontline's CEO, Robert Hvide Macleod, last week about how the tanker market is shaping up amidst a lot of commodity price moves and investor interest. Topics Covered
1:00 minute mark - What has changed in the market YTD compared to initial setups?
3:00 - Have we seen something like this in the market before?
4:30 - Preferable data source or metric for global storage balance?
6:30 - Discussion of ‘oil on water’ metric
10:30 - What is LR2 clean/dirty split? What is driving LR2 spike?
11:45 - What time charter offers are available in the markets?
15:00 - Fixtures available anywhere for FRO? Indexes accurate?
18:45 - Comments on Saudi flotilla? What happens if destinations change?
21:00 - How does cash payment flow work for spot vs. TC?
23:30 - Any concerns with CP risk? Precedent for this?
25:15 - Chance of shifting terms of spot market payment?
26:45 - Risk factor of ‘famine’ on the other side of the curve?
31:00 - IMO 2020: Spreads are down, will they come back?
36:30 - Capital allocation priorities now? Any newbuildings? Consolidation?
41:15 - Formally swearing off newbuilds? Yes!
42:30 - What is holding back the tanker stocks in these markets?
We break down Snap's upside earnings report and what it means for the internet advertising space, coronavirus plays, the effects of stimulus, and a lot more.
Topics Covered
2:30 minute mark: Setting the scene
7:30: Attention Costs
10:00: The Hollywood effect
14:00: Snap's international growth
18:00: The filter issue
23:00: Relative valuation
27:00: Amazon's perfect storm
30:00: Other advertisers' prospects
33:00: The demographic questions
37:00: Stimulus effects
53:00: Shifting spending
59:00: Differing audiences
1:01:00: Twitter digression
1:07:00: How to interpret this earnings season
1:12:00: The Tiktok threat
1:17:00: Recovery risks
1:24:00: Second level effects
Zoom (ZM) was a go-go momentum stock in its first year of trading, with revenue multiples and performance outpacing most of its SAAS (software as a service peers). That was to a degree deserved due to the company's profitable business model and competitive advantages as a smooth, easy-to use video communications platform. With the advent of lockdowns, quarantines, and social distancing to combat the spread of COVID-19, Zoom has transcended from growth stock favorite to widely known consumer brand and almost an inverse ETF of the bear market. While value investors like to grumble about the market getting irrational about growth stocks, there are some reasons to be optimistic about Zoom's prospects at least as compared to where they stood on January 1st. The increased usage of the product - while costing Zoom more to support - should both accelerate adoption for the long-term and potentially open up new avenues and use cases. On the other hand, the increased focus on Zoom has also highlighted issues the company has, most primarily with security, something hardwired into the company's fantastic success to date. We discussed the cross-currents at play here and where Zoom might be headed next. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark - The Zoom setup
6:00 - Zoom's origin story and its advantage
14:15 - Zoom's killer app
16:30 - Questions that are beginning to arise
21:15 - The security issues
26:30 - Enterprise vs. consumer business model, and being thesocial distancing play
33:00 - Overall market description and Zoom's rise
38:15 - The competition
47:00 - Justifying the valuation?
55:00 - What sort of revenue upside is there
1:04:00 - Sorting out temporary from permanent
1:14:30 - The Zoom production studio angle
1:19:00 - China backlash
1:23:00 - Regulation
1:28:00 - A final macro note
J Mintzmyer speaks with Euronav Hugo de Stoop as part of Value Investor's Edge's COVID 19 / Oil Price War Forum. While shipping is in turmoil, oil tankers like Euronav are very nicely positioned. The two discuss the outlook for the months ahead. Topics Covered
2:15 minute mark - How is COVID-19 impacting the crude tanker markets and EURN?
4:45 -How has the oil price war shifted the market- How is EURN positioned?
8:00 - Is this market surge different than last fall with COSCO?
13:00 - Only a few fixtures so far this week, more expected soon?
14:00 - IMO 2020 update, any shift in strategy?
19:45 - Any plans to load up more VLSFO to hedge lower fuel costs?
23:00 -The other ULCC on a new storage contract? Other storage requests?
27:30 - How do the recent resales fit into your fleet and IMO strategy?
31:00 - Any near-term supply risks or overhang on orders?
36:00 - Has your capital allocation strategy shifted at all this year?
40:30 - How to differentiate between vessel acquisitions and repurchases?
43:30 - Clarification on lock-out timing- delay to 1 Apr? Annual meeting vote?
50:30 - Any shift to your views on leverage? Still ample capacity?
After the Disney podcast we recorded last Friday and posted yesterday, Akram's Razor and Daniel Shvartsman continued to discuss the macro environment and the strange place we're in.
Disney is considered as blue-chip as it gets, but when you break down its famous flywheel - different business lines that all flow together to create the greatest diversions in the world - there's a lot of trouble spread around. Theme parks, box office, live sports, advertising are all under pressure - is Disney + enough to make up for that? We discuss the outlook for the entertainment company. Topics covered:
2:30 minute mark -The Corona bear ETF
7:30 - The flywheel is stuck
12:30 - Long-term effect on consumer behavior in travel
17:00 - The significance of Bob Chapek's theme parks experience
25:00 - Cruise lines and international flags
28:00 - Whither (wither?) the box office?
36:00 - Box Office as marketing
41:00 - ESPN - the wild card
56:00 - Disney+ - the ace in the hole?
1:01:00 - The next WFH play
1:09:00 - The diversionary business model in a diversionless world
The last time J Mintzmyer and Value Investor's Edge hosted a virtual investor forum featuring industry analysts, management teams, and investors, all the way back in January 2020, it was like another world. IMO 2020 was still the buzzword, post New Year cyclicality was driving behavior, and coronavirus looked like it was a local issue in China. Meanwhile, a virtual investor forum proved to be quite ahead of the curve. A lot has changed in two months. So, last week Mintzmyer and team hosted 15 guests ranging from industry analysts to investors to management teams, with a look at how the shipping situation has changed. The second public episode features Teekay LNG Partners' (TGP) management team, namely CEO Mark Kremin and CFO Scott Gayton. They discuss how their capital allocation looks under the current climate and whether there are any counterparty risks investors should watch out for.
Topics Covered
2:00 minute mark - Direct Coronavirus impacts to current work environment?
5:00 - Any direct COVID-19 impacts to TGP itself?
7:15 - Any fundamental changes for LNG shipping? Oil price war impact?
9:00 - Any shift in longer-term growth projects yet? Qatar plans?
10:45 - Concern for counterparties? Force majeure risk?
14:30 - Any exposure left to non-investment grade counterparties?
18:30 - Additional ‘deep dive’ into contracts regarding force majeure?
21:00 - How has this market shifted capital allocation priorities?
24:00 - Reiterating full dividend stability at $0.25/qtr?
25:15 - Opportunistically repurchasing units here? Higher volumes?
27:00 - Is the NOK bond market still open? Revolver extension?
30:15 - Any interest in repurchasing the preferred equity?
33:45 - Any interest in consolidation or equity plays in other firms?
34:30 - Midsize LPG rates holding up?
36:00 - When do forward LNG rates start to matter?
38:00 - Asking for a ‘full pledge’ to keep the dividend regardless of price.
As the coronavirus bear market continues to roil investors, we talk about what effect its had on the tech sector in general. Is the bubble over? Will the Nasdaq be a safe haven and a future outperformer? We discuss the impact already felt in the market and where things might go. Topics Covered
3:00 minute mark - The seismic shift
6:00 - Change in valuation approach
12:00 - Can the Nasdaq continue to outperform
19:00 - Risk assessment
25:00 - Owning market performance and the loss of margin of safety
34:00 - How ot assess going forward
39:00 - Potential sectors to invest in
48:00 - Are we at a divergence?
56:00 - Does a safe haven now sacrifice future growth?
1:03:00 - The flattening of volatility and the natural reaction
1:09:00 - The longer-term impact
1:12:00 - Close the market?
The last time J Mintzmyer and Value Investor's Edge hosted a virtual investor forum featuring industry analysts, management teams, and investors, all the way back in January 2020, it was like another world. IMO 2020 was still the buzzword, post New Year cyclicality was driving behavior, and coronavirus looked like it was a local issue in China. A lot has changed in two months. As Mintzmyer and the VIE team gather a new round of participants for a COVID-19 and Oil Price War focused forum this week, one of the themes is how that situation has changed. And there's no better place to start than with International Seaways (INSW). CEO Lois Zabrocky and CFO Jeff Pribor took part in the first forum - it was our most recent VIE episode posted - so it offers an easy compare and contrast. Topics Covered
2:00 minute mark: What is the immediate impact of COVID-19 to your markets?
3:15 - How much follow-on activity is coming out of China?
4:45 - Any non-traditional routes developing due to the oil price war?
6:00 - How does INSW benefit from this market?
8:00 - Is the Suezmax market benefitting from this strength?
10:45 - How is the Panamax market performing now?
12:00 - MR product tanker market update?
13:45 - Any indications of potential product market storage?
14:45 - Have you adjusted your operations, shoreside and at-sea for COVID?
17:30 - IMO 2020 transition and scrubber update?
21:15 - Current timeline of scrubber installations in China (60 days!)
22:30 - Can you delay or back-out of scrubber installations?
25:00 - What is your current and target balance sheet leverage?
28:00 - Restrictive covenants in the current debt facility for repurchases?
29:45 - Commentary on dividends and share repurchases?
Elliott Management waged a short-lived and a successful activist campaign against Twitter, at least from the perspective of getting the company to respond. While the long-term results and the fate of Jack Dorsey as CEO are still unclear, we discuss whether Twitter's future is appealing for shareholders, what could actually be done to fix Twitter, and why this might not be the lay-up it seems. Topics Covered:
3:00 - Activist shareholders... Elliot's involvement.
4:30 - Is the goal solely to remove Dorsey?
9:30 - What's wrong with Twitter?
15:00 - Not growing fast enough given its exposure
23:30 - About Scott Galloway
26:30 - Should/shouldn't Twitter be more like Facebook?
29:30 - Strong user base that doesn't like change
33:45 - What do you think is going to happen with Twitter in the next weeks and months?
38:00 - What would you do in your first year as CEO of Twitter?
48:30 - Facebook excels at gaining attention, how can Twitter do this better?
53:00 - Twitter has a narrower appeal than Facebook.
1:01:30 - What can a full time CEO do?
1:05:00 - Who would buy Twitter? How to add revenue?
1:23:00 - Buy at this price?
Four different forces combined to create a big sell-off last week, and then a jagged but strong rebound this week. There's of course the spread of the coronavirus, COVID-19. There is the Democratic primary in the US and what it foretells for the Presidential election in November. There is the, ahem, healthy valuation of the stock market, poised at all-time highs before the 7-session sell-off. And there's the role of the Federal Reserve, both in setting interest rates and in providing liquidity to the markets. We try to break down what matters and what is transient here, while conceding that uncertainty is a big part of the overall outlook. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - How are you sizing the current market correction? Does this change your stance?
6:30 - Once you figure out your starting point how much does the virus matter?
11:00 - Is there a risk of market contagion?
20:00 - Was repo buying necessary?
21:30 - Has there been a fundamental change in the market such that it won't bounce back this time?
29:00 - NVDA as an example
31:45 - Have you made changes to your exposure?
40:00 - Does something like this week change people's perspectives?
47:00 - How do you evaluate a "drop" vs a recession?
1:00:00 - The election from a markets perspective... general politics.
J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge Live spoke with Lois Zabrocky and Jeff Pribor, CEO and CFO of International Seaways (INSW), to discuss their views on the tanker markets and IMO 2020. This followed on INSW's investor day in January, and comes in advance of the company's Q4 earnings report. Topics Covered
1:15 minute mark - Any surprises or different impacts in the markets?
3:00 - Impact from the lightering business? Additional EBITDA?
5:00 - Rate and fixture guidance? Old VLs doing well, Aframaxes poor?
7:45 - Difference between spot and TC fixture guidance?
8:45 - How do today’s rates compare to last year’s levels?
10:00 - Anything else impacting the market? Just seasonality?
12:45 - How are the Suezmax and Aframax spot markets doing?
13:30 - Priorities for cash flow allocation post-refinancing?
16:30 - Plans for INSW-A baby bonds? Call this summer?
19:15 - How do you balance dividends and repurchases now?
23:30 - Thoughts on current NAV range? How far underneath?
27:00 - What are some of the top risk factors in this market?
31:00 - If China imports from US, what sources are they replacing?
36:45 - Current status of the scrubber program? Any additions?
40:00 - All 2020 capex ($70M) internally financed from cash?
40:45 - More risks in the market which aren’t getting reviewed?
42:30 - Willing to look for time-charters? Where are they at now?
49:15 - Viewpoints on FSO joint-venture? Core to business?
53:00 - Closing comments- MR market, any resilience there?
PagerDuty was a screaming short last summer, an example of SaaS's over-competitive landscape and trading at a high valuation to boot. But with half the valuation and a stronger competitive advantage than expected, has the page turned for this tech company? Akram's Razor explains why he's taken the other side of the trade, and why the moat for PD has held up versus new entrants. Topics Covered
3:00 minute mark - What does the competitive landscape look like?
5:30 - What is PD's space exactly?
9:15 - How wide a moat?
11:00 - Why are you long?
17:00 - Are they attracting new business?
20:00 - Pricing discussion
25:15 - Have competitors had any success at slowing down PD?
30:45 - Net dollar retention going in the wrong direction?
39:30 - What are you looking for in terms of the stock at this point?
42:00 - Acquisition candidate?
54:00 - Why own "value SAAS"?
On January 14th, Value Investor's Edge Live hosted Robert Hvide Macleod, CEO of Frontline (FRO), to discuss the crude tanker markets and their balance strategy to IMO 2020. Frontline is one of the largest tanker operators in the world and is backed by shipping legend John Fredriksen. FRO is set to pay large dividends in this market and they have maintained a premium valuation ahead of peers. Robert discusses the various tanker segments and his overall viewpoints and areas of focus into the new year. Topics covered:
0:50 minute mark - Start of discussion: How is IMO 2020 impacting tankers? Any surprises?
3:00 - What is your current scrubber uptake status? Global fleet percentage?
4:30 - What is the current spread dynamic? Any plans to expand scrubbers?
7:15 - Will the time charter markets follow the strength in the spot markets?
10:00 - What is driving Suezmax strength and Aframax strength?
13:45 - Will eco-vessels improve your TCE results? How much?
14:45 - Confirm fleet splits of scrubber installations?
15:45 - Any broad market concerns for tankers? Why are stocks stalling?
17:30 - What are your capital allocation priorities besides the dividend?
19:15 - FRO trades at a premium, why is that a potential benefit?
22:00 - What is your target leverage? Planned split between spot and TC?
25:45 - Why is LR2 weak compared to the strong Aframax market?
28:00 - What are some of the key risks and uncertainties in the market?
31:00 - If placing a newbuild order, what type of design? LNG? Scrubber?
34:00 - How long are yards backed up with scrubber conversion work?
35:15 - Any potential for consolidation in the tanker sector? Frontline role?
36:00 - How many ships are laid up for COSCO sanctions? Potential impact?
40:00 - What is the market missing right now?
Facebook entering an election year is about as hot-button a topic as there is in the market outside Tesla. Akram's Razor has called it a compelling buy on two previous podcasts this year, and after the company sold off on its earnings, it seemed good time to revisit the story in full. With comparisons to Amazon and Google, as well as news media and the inevitable diversion into the issue of political ads, we try to tease out the case for Facebook.
Topics Covered
1:30 minute mark - Is Facebook a consensus buy despite the sell off?
9:00 - Pulling in Amazon as a proxy
14:15 - Amazon, Facebook, Google and the tech conglomerate benefit or discount
18:30 - Facebook's PR challenge vs. their profit rush
26:30 - What is Facebook's "product"?
34:00 - Drilling into what's different about the modern tech companies vs. traditional media
44:00 - The actual effect of the scrutiny on Facebook's business - opportunity set and costs to overcome
52:30 - Finalizing the scrutiny arbitrage play, the e-commerce upside, and the $300 stock trading for $200
On January 17th, Value Investor's Edge Live spoke with Adrian Economakis, COO of VesselsValue, about the shipping markets and particular asset pricing cycles. Adrian reviewed some of the features of their research platform, which include trade analytics and a full database of all vessels and transactions. He also discussed some of the key observations from a review of asset cycle pricing across sectors. Tankers were on a run and not particularly cheap at the time, whereas there is some intriguing deep value opportunities in some ancillary shipping sectors such as Panamax Containerships and Offshore Support Vessels. Topics Covered
1:00 minute mark - Background of VesselsValue? What research features are available?
5:45 - How accurate have are the valuations compared to deals?
9:15 - Which asset classes are the most depressed? Deep value plays?
20:30 - Views on tanker asset values versus historical levels?
25:00 - Discussion on demand indications in the market.
30:00 - Vessel tracking models- storage impact?
31:30 - What are the COSCO ships doing? Laid up? Storage?
34:00 - IMO 2020 market impacts thus far? Scrubber installations?
39:30 - Specific scrubber metrics and valuations for IMO 2020?
44:10 - Any other risks or weird activity to watch out for?
46:00 - Commentary on the latest VLCC resale levels ($105-$107M)?
In a continuation of the first ever Virtual Investor Forum on Value Investor's Edge, J Mintzmyer hosted Svein Harfjeld and Trygve Munthe, co-CEOs of DHT Holdings (DHT), on January 16th, to discuss the VLCC markets and their current scrubber program and capital allocation priorities. They reiterated the strong prioritization of dividends while also ensuring the balance sheet remains very conservative- even targeting the potential for zero net debt in the future. Topics Covered 1:30 minute mark - How is IMO 2020 impacting the markets? Any surprises?
3:30 - What fuel spreads are you seeing? Expectations on forward moves?
5:00 - Current progress of the scrubber program? 6 ships still deferred?
8:00 - Any indications of a 2nd wave of installations? Doing more?
9:15 - How long will it take for you to install the last 6 scrubbers?
11:15 - Any pickup in HSFO storage? Are you participating in this market?
12:45 - Any indications of COSCO sanctions impact? Recent changes?
15:00 Why would the trade deal potentially be positive for DHT?
16:45 - With regards to the recent weakness, what are you seeing?
19:30 - Some of your top concerns in the market into 2020?
21:45 - Current capital allocation priorities?
24:00 - Target leverage? Down to zero net debt?
26:30 - How will the convertible notes factor into your structure?
27:45 - Are investors missing anything in these markets?
29:45 - Thoughts on the charter market? Willing to take cover?
31:45 - Standard reporting timing for Q4-19? Early February?
Pinterest has been one of the many 2019 IPOs to underwhelm in public markets to date, but there is an interesting growth story here. Filling a more specific user need, Pinterest could offer a more sustainable growth approach than other social media firms. The question is whether it can escape the example of Twitter's trajectory, and whether it can withstand the perennially looming juggernaut, Facebook. Topics Covered
4:00 minute mark - What's your gut take on Pinterest?
6:45 - The curse of Twitter
10:45 - How does the Twitter problem play out for Pinterest?
12:45 - Instagram as e-commerce vs social.
15:45 - PINS vs. SNAP in terms of targeted advertising
19:30 - What are investors waiting for with PINS?
25:00 - Don't the numbers show that they have room to grow?
34:00 - The threats of Instagram and Whatsapp and the cautionary tale of YELP
46:00 - Lack of engagement in Pinterest and its effect on investing
55:00 - The bear case
As part of the first ever Virtual Investor Forum on Value Investor's Edge, J Mintzmyer spoke with Anthony Gurnee and Paul Tivnan, CEO and CFO of Ardmore Shipping, about the MR product markets and IMO 2020 implementation. We discussed company specifics as well including earnings potential and capital allocation priorities. Topics Covered
2:10 minute mark - Start of discussion: Overall market impacts, any surprises?
3:35 - Are the markets topped out or room to rise further?
4:55 - What are the economics of an MR scrubber?
8:25 - Are your ships ‘eco’ specs? Fuel savings?
9:15 - Life expectancy of product tankers and your fleet?
10:55 - What sort of discount do older ships earn in today’s market?
12:10 - Are you seeing strong rates in handysize ships?
14:10 - Have you seen new routes developing?
16:40 - Any direct signs of fuel contamination?
20:55 - What sort of storage demand have you been seeing?
21: 55 - What indexes should investors be watching to gauge rates?
24:35 - Have you hedged any of your fuel costs?
25:55 - Current earnings and dividends at $20-$25k TCE?
27:10 - Impact of Middle East tensions?
29:35 - What are your current capital allocation priorities?
30:25 - Any newbuild or secondhand interest? Upside to assets?
34:25 - Any merger & acquisition opportunities in this market?
36:10 - Are investors missing anything in the market?
The market has seemed to be on an up and to the right path, but underneath there's been a surprising amount of churn. Large-cap growth stocks especially have moved suddenly on unclear reasoning, moves that seem skittish amidst a bull market. This may just be a sign of late-cycle behavior, or it may be a source of opportunity for the nimbly patient investor. We discuss several tech stocks and provide examples of what is going on. Topics Covered
2:00 minute mark - Setting the scene on this market
10:45 - The whiplash effect and how this affects relative valuation
13:15 - Is long term investing in trouble?
17:30 - ZOOM, WORK, DBX as long-term examples of this phenomenon
28:00 - Finding the right pair trade... harder in this market?
35:00 - The general risk climate in the market
49:00 - Apple (AAPL) and 5G
54:15 - Given the issues, how are you going to trade for the year?
1:00:00 - Streaming vs. SaaS in terms of valuation
1:09:00 - Will there be a rush back into growth stocks in 2020?
Oystein Kalleklev, CEO of Flex LNG (FLNG), joined Value Investor's Edge live to discuss the overall LNG shipping markets, US-China potential, and IMO 2020 impacts. We discussed the various types of vessel propulsion technology, reviewed their capital allocation priorities, and pressed their charter vs. spot strategy. This conversation is relevant for anyone with interests in the LNG sector including GasLog (GLOG), GasLog Partners (GLOP), Golar LNG (GLNG), Golar LNG Partners (GMLP), and Teekay LNG Partners (TGP). Some of the US-China information might also be relevant for those interested in LNG export infrastructure including Cheniere Energy (LNG), Energy Transfer (ET), and Tellurian (TELL). Topics Covered:
0:55 minute mark - Start of discussion- Market review: LNG sentiment now terrible?
3:25 - What market differentials exists between modern and older carriers?
7:15 - Precisely what sort of premium can investors expect to see?
8:45 - Any clear impacts or benefits from the US-China 'Phase 1 Deal'?
12:55 - Do steam propulsion LNG carriers have a future?
16:25 - Any major new technologies on the horizon? 2030 carbon reduction?
21:25 - What about TFDE propulsion? Is there a clear future for these?
25:10 - Are there any direct impacts coming from IMO 2020 regulations?
29:50 - Are you planning to increase your charter coverage into 2020?
34:45 - What are your capital allocation priorities with extra free cash?
39:15 - Will dividends be closely tied to earnings going forward?
Craig Stevenson, CEO of Diamond S Shipping (DSSI), and Kevin Kilcullen, CFO, joined Value Investor's Edge last Thursday, December 12th, to discuss the product tanker and Suezmax crude shipping markets ahead of pending IMO 2020 regulations. We reviewed capital allocation priorities and why they believe their stock price has been underperforming, and what they plan to do going forward. This conversation is relevant for anyone long the product tanker or the crude tanker sector, including Ardmore Shipping (ASC), DHT Holdings (DHT), Euronav (EURN), Frontline (FRO), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Teekay Tankers (TNK), Torm plc (TRMD) or Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics Covered 0:45 minute mark - Start of discussion- Market review: any IMO 2020 impacts
2:25 - Product rates are lagging crude, what is driving this separation?
5:25 - Should we expect a significant spike in rates? Any disruptions yet?
7:55 - DSSI trades at a significant discount? How to address PE overhang?
11:20 - How is the market shaping up for product/crude versus Q3 guidance?
16:10 - Any new charters? Looking for cover here? Current 1-2y charter rates?
18:35 - Any desire to add additional scrubbers to the Suezmax fleet?
22:25 - What trade flows are we seeing with MGO and VLSFO? Sources?
27:15 - What efforts can DSSI take to reach to peer valuation levels?
29:45 - How do you view capital allocation priorities?
32:25 - Tackling 2021 maturities yet? Timing on those?
35:35 - How is management compensation structured? Fleet growth?
37:35 - Is DSSI available for sale at the right price?
Greg Zikos, CFO of Costamare (CMRE) joined Value Investor's Edge to discuss the containership markets and specific company prospects and capital allocation priorities. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with containership investments or interests, including Capital Product Partners (CPLP), Danaos Corp (DAC), Global Ship Lease (GSL), Navios Maritime Containers (NMCI), and Seaspan Corp (SSW). Topics covered
1:25 minute mark - Market review: Strong rates vs. Trade War Concern
5:45 - What is your scrubber plan for IMO 2020? Approach for capital spending?
9:45 - What are the biggest risks/concerns for this market?
12:15 - How does the supply-side look? Concerned about newbuilds?
14:15 - Have you seen any interest in LNG-fueled ship transactions?
16:10 - What is the most attractive area to invest in for containerships?
18:35 - What are your current leverage levels and long-term targets?
23:15 - What are your priorities for capital allocation? Dividends?
26:35 - Ready to raise the dividend yet, or need more growth?
28:55 - How are the longer-term charter markets shaping up?
Akram's Razor was a notable bear on Nvidia in 2018 before closing a short position. Recently, he switched from the sidelines to becoming an owner of shares and a bull. We discuss what changed with the company over the past year, how it's proven itself, and what may be ahead. Topics Covered
2:00 minute mark - revisiting the short case
12:30 - NVDA's competitive position in artificial intelligence
23:00 - Expanded advantage in artificial intelligence, with the USPS deal as an example
33:00 - How Nvidia's moat plays out for new potential entrants
38:00 - The change in the valuation picture
47:00 - How crypto wreaked havoc on understanding Nvidia's gaming segment
56:00 - The structural questions in the gaming segment
1:11:00 - Mellanox and its import/fit with Nvidia
1:19:00 - Has management regained its credibility?
1:34:00 - Applying a lens to management's views
Mark Kremin, CEO, and Scott Gayton, CFO, of Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) joined Value Investor's Edge live in New York City to discuss the current LNG markets and TGP's specific prospects. We discussed their Q4 guidance, 2020 expectations, overall deleveraging goals, future growth areas, how to balance growth versus deleveraging, sanctions risks, valuation comps, and their smaller LPG assets. Topics Covered
:45 minute mark - Start of discussion- Overall LNG market views?
3:15 - Fixed charters and performance versus spot players?
5:50 - Remarks on Q4-19 Guidance (see slide below)?
8:00 - Timeline for the final growth (Yamal #6 & Bahrain)?
10:45 - Deleveraging target? 5.5x versus 4.5x?
12:50 - Timing for future growth projects? 2023/2024?
14:55 - How to balance growth vs. stock repurchases?
19:35 - Is the COSCO-related risk fully resolved?
23:35 - TGP earnings multiple & comp discussion?
26:35 - Uses of $100M Awilco proceeds? NOK Bond plans?
32:35 - Are dividends driving your stock? When will payouts increase?
38:25 - What sort of forward growth is prioritized? Anything industrial?
41:05 - Final push! Confirm no growth unless the ROE is better than stock?
43:55 - LPG assets: Are these core? Multi-gas core?
Ted Young, CFO of Dorian LPG (LPG) joined us live this morning (1 November 2019) to discuss the LPG shipping markets and specific company prospects and capital allocation potentials. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with LPG sector investments including Avance Gas (OTCPK:AVACF), BWLPG (OTCPK:BWLLF), and Navigator Holdings (NVGS). Topics covered
1:00 minute mark - Overall VLGC market review
4:00 - Does the arbitrage curve and forward cycle still look strong?
7:40 - What sort of risks should investors look for?
10:40 - Leverage is away down, what are your targets now?
12:50 - Capital allocation priorities for Dorian? Enough cash reserved?
14:40 - Priority for dividends, repurchases, financing deals
20:00 - Repurchases low thus far? Any reason for this?
23:30 - Possibility for a buyback deal with BW Group? Any covenants?
26:40 - Scrubber update on timing? Delay with shipyard?
28:30 - Discussion on scrubber fuel spreads? Savings per day?
34:00 - LPG retrofit potential? Any expenses in 2021?
37:50 - Reviewing utilization numbers - expectations for Q4/Q1?
39:40 - Update on the 4x charters coming off Q4-19?
On this week's The Razor's Edge, we discussed Akram's Razor's recent short case on Invitae (NVTA). If you're following the stock, you're probably aware of the two articles the author of The Razor's Edge has posted on the company. There's a lot to cover, so we broke it down in a podcast recorded on Monday, November 4th, i.e. two days before yesterday's earnings came out. It also came out before Myriad Genetics (MYGN) earnings this week. We were joined by a colleague of Akram's, James, to have a little more color on the story. Topics Covered
2:00 minute mark - Why Invitae?
8:15 - Investment case of accumulating the world's genetic information
17:45 - Comparison to Amazon... gene testing as a product.
22:30 - Theranos's issues and the comparison to Invitae
34:00 - Could Invitae build a data business?
40:30 - The long case for Myriad
50:30 - Challenges for NVTA
58:00 - Where do we go from here? What's the measuring stick?
1:03:00 - Is there a path to profilitablity for NVTA?
1:21:30 - Disruption of the market, redirection of resources, fraud issues and "nobility".
1:34:30 - Difficulty of building a sustainable model in healthcare due to costs.
Hamish Norton, President of Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), along with Simos Spyrou and Christos Begleris, Co-CFOs, and Constantinos Simantiras, Head of Market Research joined Value Investor's Edge Live on October 1 2019 to discuss the dry bulk shipping markets and disruptions ahead of pending IMO 2020 regulations. We reviewed their sizable scrubber program and expectations for slow steaming into 2020 along with capital allocation priorities as results turn strongly profitable. This conversation is relevant for anyone long dry bulk shipping names including Diana Shipping (DSX), Eagle Bulk (EGLE), Genco Shipping (GNK), Golden Ocean (GOGL), Navios Maritime Partners (NMM), Safe Bulkers (SB), Scorpio Bulkers (SALT), or Seanergy Maritime (SHIP).
Topics covered:
0:30 minute mark - Start of discussion / How is the overall dry bulk market developing?
4:15 - How is IMO 2020 developing so far? Any distortions in the markets?
5:15 - Have there been any delays to SBLK's scrubber installations?
8:20 - Where is your fleet positioned, Atlantic vs. Pacific? Rate differences?
10:20 - What is the impact of the US-China trade war? Meaningful impact?
13:45 - Are Chinese environmental initiatives impacting the markets?
16:00 - What is causing the recent Capesize rate decline?
18:20 - Can we expect dividends soon? End of year?
21:30 - Potential for more fleet acquisitions? Criteria?
22:45 - Impact of scrubbers on future earnings potential?
26:30 - Is there any charter activity for scrubber-equipped vessels?
30:30 - Star Bulk still trades at a huge discount to NAV, any plans to fix?
33:00 - Repurchases v. Dividends Discussion.
This week’s The Razor’s Edge looks at Domino’s Pizza (DPZ). You might be aware of the company’s turnaround in the 2010s, reinvigorating their brand and delivering steady and impressive stock market returns. You might also be aware that the company has been a target of short sellers over the back half of the decade, as they scaled to high multiples and a more levered balance sheet. And, if you’re following DPZ actively, you may have seen the stock sell off after missing its Q3 earnings numbers, and then rebound after CEO Ritch Allison’s commentary around the unsustainability of 3rd party order aggregators. We discuss Domino’s rise and whether it’s now poised for a fall. The comps have slowed and the stock has followed, flat for the last 15 months or so. Does that portend a change in direction? Topics Covered:
2:30 minute mark – What happened in the Q3 report with the miss but then positive returns?
6::30 – the food aggregators excuse?
8:30 – the simple Domino’s bull thesis
12:00 – The missed tech play for Domino’s and the changing economics around delivery
15:00 – How do the food aggregators change the game
17:30 – Domino’s temporary argument
19:00 – The fading Papa John’s tailwind
24:00 – Domino’s remedies to counter these headwinds
28:45 – The buyback problem
32:00 – Why Domino’s and not other related plays?
36:00 – The variety on the market now and the pricing tailwinds
43:00 – Gaming out the short thesis
49:00 – The short for boring shorts?
57:30 – The international angle
1:02:00 – The food aggregators aren’t going away
The third public episode of Value Investor's Edge Live is a bonus episode, following on Thursday's discussion with Euronav (EURN) CEO Hugo de Stoop. J Mintzmyer spoke a few days later with peer company International Seaways (INSW), specifically CEO Lois Zabrocky and CFO Jeffrey Pribor. The conversation touched on similar themes, including the recent disruption in Saudi Arabia's oil supply and the pending IMO 2020 regulations. Zabrocky and Pribor shared how they are thinking about capital allocation and their view on the stock's relative underperformance, compared to peers. This was recorded on the 20th of September, before the recent big move in the shares. Given recent attention on the sector and the forthright nature of the conversation, it should be an interesting listen for followers in the sector. Topics Covered
1:10 minute mark - Start of discussion / Initial commentary on Saudi disruption
3:50 - What sort of situation could hurt rates?
6:20 - How are US exports looking? Signs of capacity constraints?
11:30 - IMO 2020 discussion / What have you seen in the markets? Positioning?
14:40 - What's going on with product tanker markets? When will they move?
17:25 - What are the capital allocation priorities?
20:10 - Is fleet growth and renewal still a consideration?
21:00 - Scrubber commitment beyond 10 vessels?
22:00 - Scrubber savings expectation in TCE?
23:10 - What are futures showing for spreads between fuels?
26:00 - What is INSW underperforming peers? Why should investors buy now?
29:30 - Are you considering repurchases? Any constraints to implementation?
30:50 - Strategic vision of refinancing? Any relevant covenants?
32:50 - Are your joint-ventures considered 'core?' Economics & plan there?
34:45 - What's the potential timeline for LNG JV refinancing?
36:40 - Is the share float or liquidity a concern for repurchases?
38:00 - How is your performance compensation related to share prices?
Hugo De Stoop, CEO of Euronav (EURN), and Brian Gallagher, Head of IR, join Value Investor's Edge Live to discuss the crude tanker shipping markets specifically following the major Saudi disruption and pending IMO 2020 regulations. We also discussed the potential for floating storage, Euronav's capital allocation priorities, the prospect of LNG dual-fuel vessels, and overall market thoughts regarding the increased focus on Atlantic-sourced cargoes. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with crude tanker exposure including other firms such as Diamond S (DSSI), Frontline (FRO), International Seaways (INSW), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Teekay Tankers (TNK), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics covered1:30 - What are the effects of the attack on the Saudi oil fields?4:30 - What's the outlook for US exports?7:30 - Scrubbers and use of compliant fuel.16:30 - What's the plan for the second ULCC and has the been movement in the sulfur spread?21:00 - Have you hedged against oil price fluctuations? How does this impact P&L?24:00 - How will the Saudi disruption affect your Suezmax fleet?26:00 - Are Suezmaxes being used for storage?29:00 - Will storage be drawn down now that there's backwardation? 30:30 - Priorities with current cash balance.36:00 - Are you adding to the fleet and will you be looking into "dual fuel" technology?41:00 - Overall take on the market: Are you more bullish or bearish with Saudi disruption?
The streaming video industry is changing by the week. Disney is preparing to make a big splash with Disney+'s launch in November, Apple just announced their entry, and AT&T is trying to supersize HBO's presence in the competitive arena. How will it all shake out, and who might be a big loser as a result? Akram's Razor and Daniel Shvartsman go back in time to Disney's Marvel purchase to figure out what has set Disney apart, and then discuss whether this threat is different from others that Netflix has faced. Topics covered: 2:00 minute mark - Introduction/background 7:00 - What brings you to Disney and Netflix? History of Marvel 20:30 - How can Disney succeed in streaming? 27:00 - What can go wrong? 30:00 - Potential effect on box office, cable, etc. 34:00 - Netflix in depth, background, transformation 40:30 - Wouldn't you bet on Netflix to solve the current issues? 44:00 - How much demand is there for content? 48:30 - How do you remain objective in investing with regard to some of these familiar brands? 54:30 - Problem of too much content. 57:00 - In terms of investing in these companies, what actual numbers matter? 1:00:45 - Is there a rebundling play here? 1:04 - Difficulty in finding "pure play" investments.
Robert Bugbee, President of both Scorpio Tankers (STNG) and Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) joined Value Investor's Edge Live's inaugural episode on Thursday morning (1 August 2019) along with James Doyle, Senior VP and Chief Financial Analyst for Scorpio Group to discuss the product tanker and midsize dry bulk markets. This interview and discussion is relevant for anyone with product tanker investments including Ardmore Shipping (ASC), Diamond S (DSSI), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA), Torm (TRMD), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Topics covered Start of discussion / When will IMO 2020 show up? 2:45 minute mark
Increased interest from suppliers/customers: 6:45
How is the midsize bulk market looking? 9:00
What might SALT do with STNG holding? 15:15
IMO 2020 as a major catalyst: 22:30
Can installations of scrubbers be sped up? 24:30
Any surprises or dislocations with scrubber installations? 28:00
What sort of spreads are we expecting? 29:15
Discussion of particular blends/logistics (dirty/clean)? 32:00
Will VLCC deliveries hurt the product tanker market? 36:30
When will Scorpio Bulkers be comfortable repurchasing? 38:45
Timing of repurchase and 'game theory:' 41:00
This trailer previews our initial two shows on The Investing Edge, from Value Investor's Edge Live hosted by J Mintzmyer, and The Razor's Edge, hosted by Daniel Shvartsman and Akram's Razor. Our excerpt for Value Investor's Edge Live is from our first episode, where J Mintzmyer speaks with Robert Bugbee of Scorpio Tankers about the company's comfortable cash position and the pending catalyst of IMO 2020. Our excerpt from The Razor's Edge is from the first episode, which covers Disney, Netlfix, and the streaming universe. Daniel Shvartsman asks Akram's Razor about whether Netflix can solve a budding challenge - too much content on the service. The Investing Edge is a podcast channel on Seeking Alpha that features shows from different Seeking Alpha authors, with a focus on their unique investing style. Authors will speak with CEOs and industry experts, break down key market stories and topics, and share insights on how they research new investments. The first two shows on The Investing Edge are: Value Investor's Edge Live, hosted by J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge. The show will feature J's conversations with publicly traded shipping company CEOs, sector experts, and fellow deep value investors about their companies and investing approaches. The Razor's Edge, hosted by SA podcast host Daniel Shvartsman and Seeking Alpha author Akram's Razor of The Razor's Edge.
The Investing Edge is a podcast channel on Seeking Alpha that features shows from different Seeking Alpha authors, with a focus on their unique investing style. Authors will speak with CEOs and industry experts, break down key market stories and topics, and share insights on how they research new investments. The first two shows on The Investing Edge are: Value Investor's Edge Live, hosted by J Mintzmyer of Value Investor's Edge. The show will feature J's conversations with publicly traded shipping company CEOs, sector experts, and fellow deep value investors about their companies and investing approaches. The Razor's Edge, hosted by SA podcast host Daniel Shvartsman and Seeking Alpha author Akram's Razor of The Razor's Edge.