FiveThirtyEight Politics: Recent Episodes

FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald Trump and President Biden tied is to be trusted. What to make of a CNN poll showing Nikki Haley as the only Republican candidate with a lead over Biden that falls outside the margin of error. How to understand data from the New York Times suggesting that Biden is losing support among voters of color. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Carlos Odio of Equis Research and Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies to parse through which recent data is actually worth paying attention to and which is sound and fury. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of "good or bad use of polling" examples. They consider why GOP primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently depending on survey methodology, what we can learn from post-debate polling, whether Nikki Haley used polling well in her debate performance and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican presidential primary debate in this late-night edition of the podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Game time for the Republican presidential primary begins in earnest this week. The first debate is being held in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and it marks the beginning of a five-month countdown to the Iowa caucuses, during which there will be monthly debates, nonstop campaigning and a likely winnowing of the field. While this may be when the nation begins to tune in, folks in the early states have been tuning in -- either by choice or because of multimillion-dollar ad spending -- for months. And so, in preparation for the months ahead, in this installment of the podcast, we take in the view from the early states. To do that, Galen speaks with Katie Akin, politics reporter at the Des Moines Register; Josh Rogers, senior political reporter at New Hampshire Public Radio; and Joseph Bustos, politics reporter at The State in Columbia, South Carolina. They also play the second-ever installment of “Guess Which Candidate Said This!" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump has been indicted for a fourth time, now in Fulton County, Georgia, for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in that state. While the alleged crimes in this case are similar in some ways to his previous federal indictments in special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation, there are important differences. First, these are state crimes, based in part on Georgia’s racketeering laws, which have historically been applied much more broadly than federal racketeering laws. Second, and relatedly, the core of this case involves an alleged criminal enterprise, which has led to the indictments of 18 other people also involved — in various ways — in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Third, these being state crimes, the president has no power to pardon or commute a sentence in this case — important when thinking about the possibility of a second term for Trump. And unlike the former president’s prior indictments in New York, Florida and Washington, D.C., Georgia allows its court proceedings to be televised. That could be a significant factor in how the public might process the indictment. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with a group of Georgia legal experts about what to expect from this case and what makes it distinct from Trump's other legal woes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Abortion rights advocates notched another win in a red state. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend the constitution to a 60 percent supermajority. Instead, such amendments will continue to require a simple majority, making it likelier that Ohioans will pass an amendment to codify abortion rights in the state constitution this November. Most of the post-election analysis concluded that abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections now, and it’s hard to deny in otherwise low-turnout environments, but should we apply these lessons to high-turnout environments -- like the 2024 presidential election -- as well? The crew discusses in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. They also do a 2024 GOP vice presidential draft, in a world where former President Donald Trump wins the presidential primary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tuesday is Election Day in Ohio and it’s a bit of an unusual one. Ohioans are voting on whether to increase the threshold to pass constitutional amendments from a simple majority to a 60 percent supermajority. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich about where the race stands and the broader trend of similar ballot measures. Galen also digs into the New York Times’s first polls of the 2024 primary and general elections with Ruth Igielnik, the Times's editor of news surveys. Their surveys with Siena College during the 2022 midterms earned them the distinction of the best pollster in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight's ratings. At this point, their early data suggests that former President Donald Trump is far outpacing his rivals in the Republican primary and is tied with President Biden in general election polling. So, what should we make of that? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Did former President Donald Trump conspire to defraud the United States, conspire to obstruct an official proceeding, actually obstruct that preceding and conspire to willfully deprive American citizens of their right to vote? Those will now be questions for a federal jury after a grand jury indicted the former president on four felony charges on Tuesday. In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what was in the Department of Justice's 45 page charging document, what comes next and how Americans are thinking about it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Calculations from the World Meteorological Organization suggest that July was the hottest month on record. Throughout the month, heat records were broken across the globe. Phoenix, Arizona, recorded 31 days in a row of temperatures over 110 degrees Fahrenheit and Sanbao, China, provisionally recorded the country’s all-time hottest temperature of 126 degrees. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Anthony Leiserowitz, the director and founder of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, about public perceptions of climate change, how extreme weather shapes those views and whether it's shaping our politics. Galen also speaks with Kaleigh Rogers and Nathaniel Rakich about some of the latest GOP primary polling and how changes to election law in both red and blue states will reshape how Americans vote in 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It is widely believed that former President Donald Trump will be indicted for a third time in the coming days or weeks, as he received a target letter from the Department of Justice last week. The potential federal charges involve the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election leading up to that day. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what Americans think about Jan. 6, Trump's role in it and whether he ought to be charged. They also draft a 2024 Republican primary lineup, under a hypothetical scenario in which Trump's legal woes catch up to him and the field is thrown open. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Campaign finance figures from the second quarter of 2023 were released over the weekend. They offered a first glimpse at many of the presidential campaigns’ finances, since most candidates announced their bids during the second quarter. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew breaks down which of the 2024 candidates has been able to haul in the big bucks and who looks like they might have cash problems. Also, on Monday, the centrist group No Labels is hosting a town hall in New Hampshire featuring Sen. Joe Manchin and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. The group has said that they plan to run a moderate ticket in 2024 featuring one Republican and one Democrat (although not necessarily the two featured in Monday’s town hall). Early polling suggests that such a ticket would pull more support from President Biden than former President Donald Trump in a potential rematch. But is that a good or bad use of polling, 16 months out? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Love it or hate it, this is President Biden’s economy and he’s taking credit for it. In recent weeks, Biden has been rolling out his economic pitch to Americans. It started with a high-profile speech in Chicago where he branded his policies as “Bidenomics” and positioned them in opposition to trickle-down “Reaganomics.” Since then, Biden and his campaign surrogates have fanned out across the country to make their pitch. This is coming at a time when Americans are quite pessimistic about the economy. In recent polls, less than a third of Americans say the economy is good. But still, economic data paints a relatively strong picture. The unemployment rate -- according to data out last Friday -- stands at 3.6 percent. That’s close to a 50-year low. And inflation, although it remains somewhat high, has fallen to 4 percent from a high of 9 percent last summer. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek, who covers the Federal Reserve and economy for the New York Times, and Neil Irwin, chief economic correspondent for Axios. They discuss how much of Biden’s approach to economic policy is actually new, what it looks like on the ground and why Americans are so pessimistic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Supreme Court wrapped up its business for the term last week, closing out a docket that touched on the Voting Rights Act, affirmative action in university admissions, student loan forgiveness, business services to LGBTQ people, religious liberty and the power of state legislatures. It was another term with high-profile cases, coursing through the heart of some of America’s cultural debates. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses whether this year’s decision could ricochet through the political environment, as last year's decisions did. They also take stock of what more we've learned about a still quite new 6-3 conservative majority. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's the final week of June and that means that we are anxiously awaiting the decisions in several high-profile Supreme Court cases. The remaining cases touch on issues including affirmative action, President Biden's student loan forgiveness program, business services to LGBTQ people and the power of state legislatures. In this installment of the podcast, we take a look at what various public opinion polls have found on affirmative action and ask whether it's a good or bad use of polling. We also explore what to make of RFK Jr.’s relatively strong Democratic primary polling. Plus, the Republican presidential primary field has grown again, with the addition of former Texas Rep. Will Hurd. He joins a crowded anti-Trump lane. So what’s up with all the anti-Trump candidates in a primary full of voters who like former President Donald Trump? And lastly, this weekend marked one year since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs. We consider how that decision itself may have changed public opinion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There’s been a lot thrown at Republican voters over the past few weeks. The field of primary candidates has doubled; the leading contender in the primary was federally indicted on 37 counts related to his handling of classified documents and alleged obstruction of justice; and a contest that had remained largely deferential to Trump has gotten more testy. In this installment of the podcast, pollster Kristen Soltis-Anderson and Washington Post data columnist David Byler join Galen to look at how Republican primary voters are processing the news and what they want from a presidential nominee. They also ask the timeless question: What is up with the kids these days? Various analyses have come to conflicting conclusions about whether millennials and young voters in general are bucking a generations-long trend of growing more conservative with age. And they play a new game called “Which Candidate Said This?” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump was arraigned on Tuesday at a federal courthouse in Miami in relation to his alleged retention of classified documents and obstruction of justice. He pleaded not guilty, setting in motion a trial that could potentially run in tandem with his campaign for president. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with law professor and legal analyst Kate Shaw about how the case will proceed and what the possible outcomes are. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former President Donald Trump was indicted on federal charges on Thursday related to classified documents he took from the White House. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the severity and possible political implications of the charges. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what’s in the debt ceiling agreement, why polls on the debt ceiling have been straight-up contradictory and what could happen if the legislation isn’t passed by next Monday. They also discuss the significant increase in laws involving sexuality and gender in Republican-led states and what Americans think about them. And Galen speaks with senior writer Monica Potts about her new book, "The Forgotten Girls." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgia’s second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats’ agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what they’ve learned from this election so far. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. As of this writing, we still don’t know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. But that doesn’t stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didn’t make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters’ performance this cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of “Model Talk." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next month’s midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecast’s shift. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value — but also shouldn't undercut the poll. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced it’s cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear “Armageddon” and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses how Biden’s approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up – summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures.

The crew discusses how President Biden’s executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision. Finally, they analyze why Biden’s approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July.

Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metric. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing.

What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trump’s actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives.

Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska.

In recent weeks, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats’ performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.

The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries.

The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out.

The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.

The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump.

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms.

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling."

In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, “Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power,” and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond.

With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall.

The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the state’s likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.

The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.

The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections.

Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion.

The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization.

Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texas’s 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries.

The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaska’s special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend.

The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances.

The crew previews California’s primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans’ superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings.

The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California.

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.

The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment.

The crew reacts to the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days.

The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms.

Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.

The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

The crew follows up on last week’s Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting.

As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. In Matthew Continetti's new book, “The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism,” he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been.

The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft).

Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda.

The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries.

Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.

The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically.

As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding.

The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and won’t accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the “Parental Rights In Education Bill” -- or what its critics call the “Don’t Say Gay Bill” -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week.

Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics.

The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works.

Since Jackson’s confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings – similar to past ones – were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be.

Thirty-six governor’s seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governor’s race. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time.

The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time.

Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict.

The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine.

It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Biden’s first “real” State of the Union speech.

The crew discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression.

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans’ satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.’s involvement in Ukraine.

Hosts of the British “Talking Politics” podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries’ news cycles and consider their lasting impact.

The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game.

Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue.

The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments.

Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened.

The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year.

The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer — a more moderate Justice among the Liberals — retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the country’s broader political environment in a Midterm election year.

The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling."

The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting.

In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. In her new book “How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them,” Barbara F Walter writes “we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” It’s a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it.

The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted.

In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today.

The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears.

President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew discusses Manchin’s rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged.

According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent.

Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data."

On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippi’s law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy.

The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024.

The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving.

Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip.

We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled “‘I blew it.’ Maybe it’s time to get rid of election polls.” We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff.

On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries’ climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important.

Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country.

The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling.

We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. He rejected the president’s requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. Raffensperger's new book is called “Integrity Counts."

The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats’ spending bill.

Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could."

The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governor’s race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana.

Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes.

The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They also have a “good or bad use of polling” on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company.

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss America’s unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic.

The crew tries to unpack what’s driving Democrats’ legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats.

The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data.

The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity.

It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing.

Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNN’s new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling.

In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin.

The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Biden’s is legal.

American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election.

Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general.

As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administration’s handling of the end of the war.

Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper.

The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data.

The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New York’s 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.

The crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEight’s Redistricting Tracker.

The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden.

The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom.

The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic.

Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.

According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans’ leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.

Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.

We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.

The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are “thriving” is a “good or bad use of polling.”

Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.

Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. It’s generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election.

On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the term’s major cases, particularly on election law.

A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans.

Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners’ questions about politics, polling and more. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches.

The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures.

Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on what’s happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly.

The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling.

During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The data behind that evolution is striking. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Today those numbers have flipped. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. His new book is called "The Engagement: America’s Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage."

Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020.

In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party.

The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling."

New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election.

History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds.

The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system.

Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnson’s time in office. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson."

In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedy’s arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other.

What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? And what does Florida’s new voting law tell us about the GOP’s efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party’s larger motivations?

The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown."

The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos.

The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress.

The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030.

Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics.

The idea of the celebrity politician isn’t going away just because former President Trump is out of office. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989.

We look at two of this week’s biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine.

The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys.

Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why.

The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses.

The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats.

The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term.

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings.

The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades.

Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded.

The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms.

With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, “Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency.” The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill.

The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states.

This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBS’s recent documentary series “The Black Church."

The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster.

Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why.

The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling.

Texas has been in a dire situation this week. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises.

Nevada Democrats introduced a bill on Monday that would change their state's presidential nominating contest from a caucus to a primary and also dislodge New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the nation. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom.

While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications.

Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020.

Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought.

Kaiser Health News's Anna Maria Barry-Jester joins the crew to discuss how Biden's response to the pandemic is different from former President Trump's. They also discuss a recent poll showing that if Trump were to start a new "Patriot Party," it would have significant draw among Republican voters.

Nate and Galen look back at the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs and discuss what the Democratic wins say about polling and what they mean for elections going forward.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Maggie Koerth join the podcast to discuss their reporting on partisan discord and violence in the United States. The crew also looks at the dynamics in Congress that will determine whether or not President Biden can pass his agenda.

On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office.

This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be.

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next.

The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack.

The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.

In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling."

The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far.

Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.

The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election are not over.

Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.

The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them.

The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.

Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.

Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.

The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.

The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term.

The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.

In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.

Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.

This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)

There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.

In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.

Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.

The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.

The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.

Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.

The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.

Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.

The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.

The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.

During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.

The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.

The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.

The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.

In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.

So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.

In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.

FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.

The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio's preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, "good use of polling or bad use of polling?"

Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.

The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.

The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.

The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.

Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.

After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.

According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.

In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?

A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.

In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.

The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."

FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.

The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.

FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."

The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic

The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.

In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.

The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.

New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.

The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.

Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.

Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.

Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.

The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.

The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.

Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.

The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.

Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.

The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.

States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.

The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.

Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.

The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.

What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?

Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.