QAV - Investing In Shares: Recent Episodes
Tony Kynaston & Cameron Reilly
Tony Kynaston is a professional value investor. Over 25 years, his investment portfolio has achieved an average 19.5% annual return. Now he’s going to teach us his system for successful investing. Learn how to think like a millionaire.
P. Tony then does a Pulled Pork on EVZ Limited, a small engineering fabricator that has gone from 16 cents to 65 cents in 12 months and just landed on the buy list. We also get into the warning signs stacking up on Wall Street, from margin loans up 50% to the Bank of International Settlements calling out AI data centre spending as a potential GFC-style meltdown risk.
This week we cover the Iran oil sanctions waiver and what it means for the oil price, plus debrief on selling our oil stocks (Karoon, Viva Energy, Brookside) ahead of what turned out to be a nasty drop. Tony does a Pulled Pork on ASX-listed labour hire and training firm Ashley Services Group (ASH), a thinly traded turnaround story with a strong owner-founder and a QAV score of 0.24. We also note the passing of Alan Greenspan, the Credit Corp / Humm deal falling apart, and end-of-financial-year portfolio numbers that have the dummy portfolio well ahead of the index.
s show, we wade through a big news cycle: the US-Iran peace deal that forced us to dump our oil stocks, the SpaceX IPO trading at a jaw-dropping 1,750 times PROPCAF while losing money, and the brief Korean stock market circuit breaker that felt a little too dotcom-era for comfort. Tony does a Pulled Pork on Suncorp Group, freshly returned to the buy list after divesting its banking arm to ANZ, and I run the numbers on the Dogs of the Dow versus QAV over five years.
s recent price wobble, portfolio comparison notes from listener Toby, and the usual after-hours chat covering Topgolf, Bugonia, Spider Noir, and the eternal genius of Steve Austin running in slow motion.
s also a defence of value investing as an all-weather strategy, prompted by a VanEck opinion piece in the AFR.
This week Tony runs a full Pulled Pork on TIP (TeamInvest Private Group), a Sydney-based value investing education and funds management company with a flywheel business model, private equity arms, and a QAV score of 0.2 sitting frustratingly below its sentiment sell line. We also cover the Australian budget fallout, rising US bond yields, the oil price squeeze, and what all of it means for the ASX. After hours: Project Hail Mary, Rivals season two, Carnal Knowledge, The Cannonball Run, and a spirited Eurovision debrief.
s Strait of Hormuz oil blockade, and why the ASX is shrugging off the end of the world. Tony does a Pulled Pork on Perth property developer Peet (PPC) — a 130-year-old land syndicator with a Goldman Sachs-driven strategic review swirling around it — and we get a Stock Doctor data alert affecting 100+ dividend-paying stocks that every QAV investor needs to know about. After hours: Rory McIlroy at Augusta, John Candy, Otis Redding, and mangrove seeds.
s hidden annual report, Perenti (PRN) CEO change, CGF (Challenger Financial) sell line check, and Tony does a Pulled Pork on Tower Limited (TWR). After hours: horse racing, Jeff Beck, Joni Mitchell, a Quebec duo who speak in made-up space language, and Cameron built his own AI-powered ebook reader app.
of Gen Z using unregulated AI for financial advice, and the 2018 MIT experiment proving quantum entanglement.
growth of passive investing, the hosts find time for Michael Caine impressions, and a look at the latest global geopolitical and AI-driven absurdities.
segment on the Global Value Fund (GVF), where Tony explores the influence of investing legends Chris Cuffe and Miles Staude.
after-hours segment covering everything from Game of Thrones prequels to Baz Luhrmann’s new Elvis documentary.
of banks via Coinbase, the drama surrounding HUMM Group’s takeover panel objections, and a look at the potential economic impact of AI on wages.
s strong commercial leasing profits against its controversial buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) pivot and ongoing governance battles involving founder Andrew Abercrombie and Credit Corp. Finally, they wrap up with portfolio updates showing significant outperformance in both Australian and US dummy portfolios.
analysis of Stanmore Resources (SMR). From managing red flags in stocks like Fleetwood (FWD) to the nuances of superannuation-approved ASX 300 lists, this episode balances high-level macro theory with the practical, rules-based discipline of value investing.
In this wide-ranging QAV Australia episode, Cameron and Tony move from bushfires devastating Victorian horse studs into geopolitics, central bank independence, and the increasingly overt political pressure being applied to the US Federal Reserve. From Kevin Rudd’s exit as ambassador and Trump’s campaign against Jerome Powell, the conversation pivots into market consequences, portfolio performance, and a remarkable year for QAV Light portfolios, which have dramatically outperformed the index. The second half dives deep into practical investing questions from listeners, covering portfolio construction, gearing, drawdowns, and franking credits, before closing with a detailed “pulled pork” analysis of Kip McGrath Education. Along the way, they explore competition dynamics in retail, the limits of diversification, and why growth has quietly dominated returns over the past year.
The first QAV episode of 2026 opens with a wide-ranging discussion that blends value investing discipline with geopolitics, market psychology, and one very detailed stock teardown. Cameron and Tony debate the limits of guests who can’t tolerate pushback, why value investing is the “broccoli diet” of finance, and whether optimism in global equity markets has reached dangerous levels. From US military actions in Venezuela and their implications for oil markets, to Wall Street’s unanimous bullishness for 2026, the episode circles back to a core QAV principle: prediction is fragile, process is durable. The second half dives deep into Fenix Resources, unpacking how vertical integration can create a moat in iron ore, even at the smaller end of the production scale.
The final QAV episode of 2025 is a wide-ranging year-end wrap that blends portfolio performance, market structure, and deeper system thinking. Cameron and Tony review an exceptional six-month run for QAV portfolios, with multiple stocks delivering triple-digit returns, before drilling into what actually drove those results. Tony presents a data-heavy “Pulled Pork” analysis that isolates growth over PE as a potential explanatory factor behind this year’s outperformance, raising the possibility of a future refinement to the QAV scoring system. The conversation then moves through global market performance, leadership changes at Woodside, takeover drama at HUM, crowd psychology, housing constraints, and the economics of modern media, closing with books, TV, and reflections on how fast time now seems to move.
In this Christmas edition of QAV Australia, Cameron is joined by QAV member Scott Meehan for a wide-ranging, candid conversation about what it’s really like to start investing from scratch. Scott shares his journey from complete beginner to disciplined system-based investor, explains why QAV appealed to him amid the noise and hype of financial media, and reflects on the emotional shift from constant portfolio-watching to calm, rules-driven decision-making. The episode explores patience, timing versus luck, the psychology of drawdowns, the temptation of “10-bagger” narratives, and why boring, repeatable processes tend to win over time. It’s a grounded, human look at investing as lived experience rather than theory, with insights into portfolio management, profit-taking dilemmas, and why ignoring stories and focusing on numbers is harder — and more valuable — than it sounds. 
In this episode, Cameron and Tony survey a market that’s losing some momentum in iron ore while rapidly pivoting toward copper as the next structural commodity story. They unpack Fortescue’s move into Peruvian copper, the implications of slowing Chinese infrastructure investment, and why AI data centres are turbo-charging copper demand globally. The discussion ranges from takeover battles in West African gold, Buffett succession intrigue at Berkshire Hathaway, and a sharp critique of Australia’s compensation schemes for failed investment products. The episode closes with a deep “pulled pork” analysis of Aeris Resources, exploring why copper-gold producers are back on the QAV buy list despite capital-raising risks.
This week Tony and I wander through a very QAV-ish mix of market weirdness, portfolio updates, almond conspiracies, and Bond-level misogyny. COG and ERD get the chop, AMA consolidates, several new stocks rotate in, and the dummy and Light portfolios continue to absolutely embarrass the index. Tony reveals his own monster year, we unpack strange board moves at Aeris Resources, applaud EarlyPay’s buyback, and then TK delivers a beautifully nerdy pulled pork on Select Harvest (SHV)— complete with bee-logistics, frost-blowers, and almond geopolitics. We finish with digressions into Alien Earth, baccarat, TikTok nutrition fear-mongering, and Tony’s racehorse winning at 26-to-1. A normal episode, in other words.
Tony and Cam roll into the final month of 2025 with a wide-ranging episode that swings from the ASX’s latest technology breakdown to fund-manager outperformance, commodity whiplash, and a fresh pulled-pork on Metro Mining. Along the way they dig into Tower’s results, the ongoing Eroad saga, Fleetwood’s abrupt CEO exit, Finbar’s exposure to escalating WA construction costs, and the sudden return of copper, platinum, zinc, and steel to the buy list. Tony breaks down why boehmite and bauxite are shaping up as the next big strategic commodity story with a pulled pork on MMI (Metro Mining), while Cam wraps with a reflection on longevity, friendship, and a centenarian’s hard-won life lessons.
Michael Goldberg from Collins Street Asset Management returns to the show after three years. We dive deep into how value investing has fared through the turbulence of recent years — from post-COVID struggles to the renewed upswing of 2025. Michael discusses his firm’s 14%+ annual returns, the long-term patience required for undervalued stocks, and the surprising persistence of “cheap” companies that stayed cheap for years. We explore Astron Limited (ATR) and its rare earths project in Victoria, delve into mineral sands, gold funds, and the lifecycle of commodities, and tackle the hot topic of AI’s economic impact, from efficiency gains to workforce disruption. They finish with thoughts on Seven West Media’s merger, the AI-driven hype around the Magnificent Seven in the US, and how value investors can navigate an overheated tech market without losing their cool.
In this episode, Cameron and Tony sit down with activist investor Gabriel Radzyminski, founder of Sandon Capital, to dissect the art of activist value investing in Australia. Gabriel explains how he identifies mispriced assets, why value investing isn’t dead, and how activism can unlock value when management misalignment or agency conflicts keep companies from realising their potential. The discussion zeroes in on the brewing storm around Southern Cross Media (ASX:SXL) and its proposed merger with Seven West Media (ASX:SWM) — a deal Gabriel argues is a “nil-premium reverse takeover” that disenfranchises shareholders. The conversation dives deep into governance, board behaviour, passive investing, and the moral hazards of Australia’s listing rules. Expect sharp insights on capital allocation, corporate incentives, and the eternal tension between shareholders and boards.
In this episode, Tony and Cameron sit down with John Abernethy, veteran investor and founder of Clime Investment Management, for an in-depth conversation about value investing, funds management, and the evolution of Australia’s financial industry. John shares stories from his early days at NRMA in the 1980s, the influence of Warren Buffett’s philosophy, and the creative use of convertible notes to bridge value gaps. He explains how Clime evolved into a $1.6 billion multi-asset manager, why self-funding companies like Nick Scali are rare gems, and the challenges of today’s funds management environment. The discussion also covers the rise of managed investment accounts, the importance of dividends, macroeconomic forces, and Clime’s current offerings on the ASX.
In Episode AU 827 of the QAV Investing Podcast, Cameron and Tony kick off with Trump’s latest tariff threats, predict (incorrectly) the RBA’s interest rate decision, and analyse the ASX’s reaction to overnight Wall Street moves. They discuss the impact of criminal allegations on G8 Education (GEM) staff, the 30% surge in Motorcycle Holdings (MTO), and acquisition news about Silk Logistics (SLH). Tony delivers a comprehensive pulled pork on Plenti Group (PLT), a fintech P2P lender with strong metrics and a high QAV score. The show closes with riffs on Black Sabbath, AC/DC concerts, and French philosophy, including Montaigne and The Little Prince.
In this episode of QAV, Cameron and Tony kick off the new financial year with tributes to Lalo Schiffrin and Bill Moyers before diving into end-of-year portfolio roundups. They compare the dummy portfolio’s 19.87% gain against the STW’s 13.61%, dissect U.S. portfolio returns versus the S&P 500, and unpack Tony’s concentrated seven-stock strategy. Listener Trent shares his 21% return confession, there's a debate on ditching the Altman Z-score in favour of the Piotroski F-score. They then explore commodity dynamics and deep-dive into GR Engineering Services (GNG) as their Pulled Pork pick, before wrapping up with culture picks—from Nick Cage flops to Nina Simone grooves.
It’s cold, the markets are weird, and the boys are back. Cameron and Tony kick things off with oil-patch whiplash, Iran–Israel theatre, and Trump’s “Mission Accomplished 2.0” tweet-storms. Portfolio numbers, confession-season land-mines, and sudden 30 % face-plants (looking at you, AMI) follow. Tony spotlights surprise winners (OML, SHA, SRG, GNG) and takeover bait (STO, THL), while ASX cops an ASIC probe for dropping the tech ball. Virgin’s second-shot IPO, Karoon’s Brazilian land-grab, and a pulled-pork deep dive on COG round out the finance. After hours: jazz-piano Goldblum, Kelly’s Heroes, and Peter Ellyard’s octogenarian optimism.
In this special QAV episode, Cameron and Tony are joined by Navarre Trousselot, founder and CEO of Navexa, Australia’s homegrown portfolio tracking and tax-reporting platform. The episode kicks off with a charming tale of how Navarre’s first entrepreneurial venture was Pokémon card arbitrage as a 10-year-old, laying the groundwork for his investing instincts. The trio then explores the serious end-of-financial-year business: tax-loss harvesting, the nuances of capital gains strategies, and how Navexa’s AI-powered tax tools are evolving. Navarre shares exclusive insights from aggregated Navexa user data—what the top-performing portfolios look like, what they’re holding (spoiler: lots of Bitcoin), and how often they trade. The conversation wraps with some existential musing on crypto, AI, and investor psychology.
In this episode of QAV, Cameron and Tony kick off with a discussion on the political tension in the U.S. and what Trump’s moves with the National Guard might foreshadow, then slide into serious investing updates. There’s news on Perenti (PRN), NRW (NWH), and Findi (FND), with a nod to confusing results and sovereign risks. Judo (JDO), BOQ, and QBE get coverage too, as does the SOL–Brickworks merger and what it means for index fund flows. Cameron ponders the shocking long-term flatline of Telstra (TLS), while Qantas (QAN) and Perseus (PRU) get some love for outperforming. Tony wraps up with a pulled pork on Fleetwood (FWD), highlighting modular housing, mining village profits, and capital risk. There’s also a review of the film _Ballerina_ and some off-topic Doctor Who and Shakespearean riffing.
In this week’s QAV episode, we sit down with the ever-dashing Tobias Carlisle, founder of The Acquirer’s Fund (ZIG, DEEP), author of The Acquirer’s Multiple, and deep value maverick, to dissect the state of value investing in the era of AI-driven hype. We cover the brutal cycles of deep value, AI vs. human decision-making in funds, the madness of quantum computing valuations, and how Toby’s trip to China left him unconvinced by the West’s collapse narrative. We also drill into oil, Ford ($F), and the implications of passive investing’s stranglehold on market direction. Plus, Buffett worship, civil war exit strategies, and why Americans don’t get Aussie piss-taking.
In episode 821 of the QAV Podcast, Cameron and Tony kick things off with tales of gas outages and cold showers before diving into the markets. They review the portfolio performance, explain the HLS sell-off, and unpack the latest antics of Donald Trump’s tariff diplomacy. Stocks under the spotlight include VVA (Viva Leisure) with their eyebrow-raising stake in Gorilla X Labs, NRW’s legal wrangle over the Whyalla port, and a deep-dive pulled pork on ANZ. The ANZ segment touches everything from executive turnover, the bloated One Platform app, substance abuse allegations, and the Suncorp acquisition, to Cameron’s prediction that the whole thing will be scrapped in favour of an AI-driven rebuild. Sprinkle in some talk about robot security Roombas, the legacy of Damien Broderick, Sparks’ new album, and Japanese punk, and you’ve got another vintage QAV session.
In this episode, Cameron and Tony tackle the political earthquake caused by the breakup of Australia’s Federal Coalition, dig into the implications of the RBA’s latest rate cut, and explore how the U.S. credit downgrade might ripple through markets. We hit hot topics from taxing unrealized gains to a lesson in value investing resilience through the lens of a Tobias Carlisle interview with Rich Pzena. We close with a deep pulled pork on Cettire Ltd (CTT), the controversial drop-shipping retailer that’s either misunderstood genius or speculative flameout. Plus: the ASX plays dumb, and Helen Mirren gets name-dropped twice.
In this episode of QAV Australia, Cam and Tony navigate a turbulent market buoyed by a temporary rollback in US-China tariffs and a curious rally in Bitcoin. They break down the movements in gold stocks like Perseus (PRU), Ramelius (RMS), and West African Resources (WAF), unpack ANZ’s (ANZ) CEO handover and the impact of its Suncorp acquisition, and look into Super Retail Group’s (SUL) Q3 results. The episode also features deep dives into the governance concerns at Macquarie (MQG), a bizarrely massive dividend from Healius (HLS), a skeptical look at luxury drop shipper Cettire (CTT), and a pulled pork segment on outdoor advertising player oOh!media (OML). Cam also shares a personal health win, and the duo wraps up with some recommendations, banter, and a little Van Halen nostalgia.
In this episode of QAV Club, recorded on 6 May 2025, Cameron and Tony unpack the Australian federal election result with the kind of sharp political analysis and irreverent banter you expect. They explore the collapse of support for the Liberal Party, the implications for Peter Dutton, and the broader shifts in Australian voter demographics. Then, they pivot to Warren Buffett’s final Berkshire Hathaway AGM, reflecting on his legacy, investing philosophy, and the future of the company post-Buffett. The episode also includes due diligence on NRW Holdings (NWH), QPM Energy (QPM), and a deep dive pulled pork segment on Motorcycle Holdings (MTO). Plus, there’s a listener question on Healius (HLS), and Cameron fields the perennial paradox of being a Marxist value investor. Oh, and there are motorcycles, AI, and some pointed shots at Donald Trump. Classic QAV.
This week we deep-dive into BIS (Bisalloy Steel Group), questioning whether it’s truly a steel commodity play given its rising price amid a falling steel market. Tony delivers a pulled pork on BIS, exploring their niche in quenched and tempered steel, its use in defence industries, and the company’s recent inclusion in the All Ords. W also tackle discrepancies in price-to-operating-cashflow (Pr/OpCaf) numbers between Stockopedia and manual calculations, and reflect on the sale of Stock Doctor. There’s a reader question on operating cashflow calculations and plenty of banter about sobriety, diet, and what they’ve been watching lately—from _Landman_ to _Face/Off_.
In this post-Easter episode, Cam and Tony chew through the week’s market moves, exploring why the All Ords is up despite a gloomy global outlook. They rip into Trump’s latest Fed-firing fantasies, dissect the economics of tariffs, and wonder if AI will treat us like Yellowstone squirrels. There’s a deep dive on Bank of Queensland’s latest results, plus a pulled pork on gold miner Tribune Resources (ASX: TBR). They close with some existential musings on economic stagnation, robot-run suburbs, and whether humans are about to be the squirrels of tomorrow.
In this episode, Cameron and TK dive into the tumultuous week in the markets, heavily influenced by the Trump administration's tariff announcements and subsequent pause. They discuss the impact on US Treasury bonds, China's long-term economic strategy, and the potential breakdown of global trust in the US economy. They briefly cover portfolio updates, Ray Dalio's perspective on the breakdown of the global order, and company-specific news including Accent Group (AX1), Findi (FND), Comms Group (CCG), Perenti (PRN), Telstra (TLS), and TK's new board appointment at Clime Investment Wealth (CIW). TK also provides a detailed "Pulled Pork" analysis on Cedar Woods Properties (CWP). The episode concludes with after hours.
In this episode, Cameron and TK dive into the recent market volatility, largely driven by US tariff announcements. They discuss the importance of sticking to the QAV investing framework during uncertain times, contrasting it with reactive or emotional decision-making often seen elsewhere. The conversation touches on the potential economic impacts of the tariffs, including the logic behind them, the potential for decoupling from China, the historical context of tariffs in Australia, and the possibility of it all being a "grift".
In this episode, TK shares his busy week involving golf, horse racing, and family events, including his daughter's first auction and his upcoming birthday. Cameron updates on the QAV light portfolio's performance, noting it's now beating the index since inception and for the financial year, despite selling EHL and TPG. They discuss Dollarama's acquisition of The Reject Shop (TRS) at a significant premium, speculate on the rationale, and touch on potential challenges for Dollarama in the Australian market. Concerns are raised about Stockopedia following staff departures and data discrepancies, particularly with Price to Operating Cash Flow (PropCAF) figures. The hosts delve into ASIC and the RBA scrutinizing the ASX over CHESS replacement issues and operational risks. They analyze several stocks: Accent Group (AX1) potentially seeing increased stake from Fraser's Group, New Hope Group's positive results and share buyback amidst slumping coal prices, Ramelius Resources' (RMS) controversial acquisition of Spartan Resources and subsequent removal from Stock Doctor's star list due to disclosure and financial concerns, and NZME's results, potential corporate activity involving Stuff, and a looming board challenge from Canadian billionaire Jim Grennan. A significant discussion revolves around establishing 'red flags' for corporate governance issues, triggered by Helia's (HLI) CEO selling shares before bad news, Indiana Resources (IDA) failing to lodge reports on time, and broader concerns about management integrity, timely disclosure, and when to remove a red flag. They also cover TPG Telecom's sale of assets to Vocus and perform a deep dive into Santos (STO), including its history, recent performance, QAV metrics, and associated risks. The episode wraps up with 'After Hours' chat about classic TV shows like Joe 90 and Odd Squad, films like Unforgiven and Ipcress File, music discoveries including Transplants and The Distillers, and TK's upcoming horse races.
This week we're talking with Steve Mabb, Chairman of the Australian Shareholders Association, about what we can do about the many failures of ASX-listed companies to disclose their results during the most recent reporting season.
Tony and Cameron explore the market's recent volatility and recovery, examining key performances in both their Australian and US portfolios. They dive deep into the curious case of Ramelius Resources, dissecting the company's recent series of announcements that puzzled investors and raised questions around transparency and disclosure practices. Other highlights include a robust discussion on small caps versus large caps in the context of passive investing impacts, strong results from Perseus Mining and Metals X, and an analysis of Shape Australia's promising financial position and future outlook. The episode wraps up with listener questions about portfolio hedging strategies and implications of the Ramelius and Spartan Resources merger.
In this episode, we review recent half-yearly results and market volatility, discussing notable movements in the dummy portfolio compared to the benchmark, as well as significant shifts in commodities such as crude oil. We dive into reporting-season surprises from companies like Qantas, Hello World, Pepper Money, and Karoon Energy, exploring the lack of timely “confession season” disclosures and how that impacts investment decisions. The topic of whether to pause stock purchases during reporting season is debated, expressing our frustration over abrupt CFO departures and earnings “shock” announcements. We conclude with a “Pulled Pork” deep dive on mining services group Perenti (PRN), analyzing cash-flow quirks, forecast earnings, and overall QAV metrics.
In this episode, we review recent half-yearly results and market volatility, discussing notable movements in the dummy portfolio compared to the benchmark, as well as significant shifts in commodities such as crude oil. We dive into reporting-season surprises from companies like Qantas, Hello World, Pepper Money, and Karoon Energy, exploring the lack of timely “confession season” disclosures and how that impacts investment decisions. The topic of whether to pause stock purchases during reporting season is debated, expressing our frustration over abrupt CFO departures and earnings “shock” announcements. We conclude with a “Pulled Pork” deep dive on mining services group Perenti (PRN), analyzing cash-flow quirks, forecast earnings, and overall QAV metrics.
In this episode of QAV, Cameron and Tony navigate the carnage of reporting season, where many QAV stocks have taken a beating. They discuss the brutal market reactions to earnings misses, the underperformance of value stocks relative to growth, and what the latest results say about the overall market sentiment. Despite the doom and gloom, there are bright spots, including Berkshire Hathaway’s latest results and a few standout earnings reports. Tony also revisits the concept of market tops and how investors should be positioning themselves.
Half year reports are playing their usual havoc on some of our stocks, as results disappoint the market. But is the market over-reacting in some cases? Tony thinks so. We're also talking about the RBA's decision to cut interest rates and how that affects our investing decisions. Stocks covered today include FND, AMP, CVL, PPM, and Tony's deep dive is on FSF. He also answers a listener's question about borrowing to buy shares. After hours includes discussions about Babylon, the ACO, racing updates and fasting.
In QAV Episode 806, Cameron and Tony cover key market updates, including Elon Musk’s $97B bid for OpenAI, Trump’s steel tariffs, and the resurgence of iron ore as a buy. They analyze portfolio performance, noting that long-held stocks tend to outperform, and discuss Nick Scali, Beach Energy, and Seven West Media’s earnings. Cameron unveils the ‘Reilly Indicator’, suggesting that a lack of sell signals could indicate an impending market correction. They revisit the ‘Crazy Girlfriend Rule’ for stocks that repeatedly disappoint, explore the impact of COVID lows rolling off charts, and debate when bad news stops being a red flag. The Pulled Pork segment examines Grange Resources (GRR)—a strong performer but with a looming mine closure. The episode wraps with fun discussions on horse racing, Al Pacino, and flat-pack furniture frustrations.
In this episode recorded on February 4, 2025, we dive into the impact of recent US tariff implementations and their immediate retraction. We also discuss the resignation of Resolute Mining's CEO following his detention in Mali and its effect on the company’s share price, TK explains the Ricardo effect on national economic strategy, the collapse of Mosaic Brands, regulatory approval for FND, and a 'Pulled Pork' segment on Aurelia Metals (AMI), covering the company's history, current status, and future projections amid the booming gold prices. In After Hours, they offer tributes to Marianne Faithful and discuss pop culture, including 'Rogue Heroes' and 'Inland Empire', Nazi propaganda and 20th-century Russian literature.
In this episode of QAV, Cameron and Tony discuss a variety of topics, from Tony’s trip to Tasmania and adventures at MONA to Cameron’s kitchen mishap with a mandolin slicer. The conversation transitions to market insights, including the impact of the Chinese AI system DeepSeek on global markets and Nvidia’s significant market cap loss. The duo explores key investment stories like Lindsay Australia’s stock performance and Washington H. Soul Pattinson’s involvement, as well as discussing pathology services company ACL and its challenges in a government-regulated environment. The episode closes with reflections on the late David Lynch and his creative legacy.
While TK is away, I'm chatting with Phil Muscatello from the Shares For Beginners podcast, about everything the two of us have learned about investing over the years we have produced our respective podcasts.
This week we're talking about commodities such as crude oil, copper, and lithium becoming buys again, Wall Street predictions and the practical approach of focusing on quality investments and managing risk. Tony shares analysis on several stocks including NWH and MYR, discussing red flags, and a pulled pork on HZN. Cameron discussed his recent analysis on Rule 1 selling and some news regarding FSF and GNP, plus an article from the AFR about Australia's private sector being in recession. After Hours features reviews of films like ‘Civil War’ and the ‘Planet of the Apes’ series, along with the show ‘Black Snow’, and NVIDIA’s groundbreaking announcements at CES.
In our first episode for 2025, we break down our mixed portfolio results for 2024, talk about news related to MWY, ABA, ERD, RMS, play clips from a 1994 talk from Peter Lynch, review Geoff Wilson's investing checklist, discuss Eugene Lama's views on efficient markets, quantum computing threats. And in the After Hours segment we talk about the films, TV and music that's kept us busy over the break.
A review of the stock market's winners and losers for the year, updates on TLS, DTL and FPR, Planck's Principle in investing, our predictions for 2025, and a 'Pulled Pork' on Wagner's Holding Company (WGN). In After Hours we talk about Leunig, say RIP to departed friends, and discuss ADHD.
This week we're talking about SXE's new contracts, The Buffett Indicator, "The Mind of Wall Street", the Murdoch succession crisis, Pulled Porks on GTN and RM, and then in After Hours we discuss Dune Part Two, S02 of Bookie, Vivaldi's Four Seasons, Skeleton Crew, Wild Gods, Pink Moon and using the Australian government to bail out failing news organisations.
In this episode of QAV: Tony's recent golfing escapades and his upcoming move to Cape Schanck. We discuss ANZ's CEO change, reviewing the impact on the stock and the broader banking landscape, including concerns over market share and IT integration challenges. ABA's merger with MyState is analyzed for synergies and potential risks. There's an in-depth look at operating cash flows from Fleet Partners and whether it remains a QAV stock. The 'Pulled Pork' segment features Hello World Travel Limited, examining its financials and market position. Other topics include Boom Logistics' consolidation, commodities recovering thanks to China's statements, the RBA's interest rates decision, and Rule 1 sell strategies. The episode also includes reviews of recent media highlights, from cinema classics to new spy thrillers.
In this episode, while Tony is playing golf, I am joined by guest co-host QAV club member Geoff Fleming. We discuss Geoff’s investing journey, then get into Anthony Scaramucci’s book on Bitcoin "investing", recent updates from EHL and FND, ASIC's warnings about cybersecurity threats to share holdings, the latest market news including gold stocks like WestGold (WGX) and Resolute Mining (RSG), and a deep dive on Auswide Bank (ABA), including its recent acquisition, merger talks with MyState, and financial challenges. After hours chat includes Babylon, The Old Man, pumpkin pie, Pink Floyd / Roger Waters concerts, Jethro Tull lyrics, Bauhaus movement, Cobra Kai and The Life of Apollonius of Tyana by Philostratus.
In this episode, we discuss the impact of Trump's tariffs and sanctions on markets, the consolidation of Boom Logistics, Resolute Mining Update, listener feedback about lithium investments and accruals, the Mooch on bitcoin and his Trump decoder ring, a pork on Woodside Petroleum (WDS), Nick Scali's Logistics Challenges, the latest on the super tax proposal, EV vehicle sales in Australia, and a second pork on U.S. company Pool Corporation (POOL), a recent Berkshire Hathaway investment. After Hours includes Tony's recent experiences with Rockwiz, Stephen Fry, and a golf win, while Cameron talks about the 1963 Italian horror film BLACK SABBATH and a new documentary about Elvis' 68 Comeback Special.
In a jam-packed two-hour long episode 747, we're talking about everything from the RSG kidnapping to accruals in the QAV checklist, the performance of ASG, why Cam didn't buy SWM when he read Kerry Stokes' AGM speech, Zombie companies on the ASX, the NAB being sued by ASIC, the retirement of Joyce Corporation's CEO, GrainCorp profits, Brokers hype, Findi's Indian ATM / IPO play, before wrapping up with after-hours chatter about horses, boxing, movies, fascism, and 20 years of podcasting.
In this mammoth two-and-a-half-hour marathon episode #746, we covered an extensive range of topics, from Trump's 2024 election victory and its implications, to detailed analysis of multiple companies and market sectors. Elon Musk's new role as Minister for Government Efficiency (DOGE), portfolio performance updates showing significant outperformance of benchmarks, and several mining company developments including Resolute Mining's Mali crisis, Liontown Resources' lithium struggles, the delisting of Namoi Cotton and the challenges of tracking corporate actions in Light portfolios, and iron ore market challenges. Cam does a pulled pork on US shipping company TeeKay Corporation's history and operations, and Tony does a pulled pork on Qantas Airways' business model and fleet concerns. The After Hours section also included discussions about horseracing updates, entertainment recommendations including David Tennant shows, and concluded with an extensive debate about Trump's potential impact on democracy and different perspectives on fascism in America.
We discuss the RBA’s Cup Day meeting, TK does a 'Pulled Pork' on CCP's recent performance, and quotes from 'What Works on Wall Street' by O'Shaughnessy, exploring key accounting ratios and shareholder yield. After hours is about cycling safety, Coppola's "DEMENTIA 13", scotch eggs, and managing celebrities.
We're talking about the impact of Solly Lew's strategic moves on Myer, before discussing Mosaic Brands' recent troubles, portfolio reports, and Tony provides a comprehensive 'Pulled Pork' segment on AMP. Cam discusses the Woozle Effect in investing and provides pulled pork on one of the stocks in our U.S. portfolio, Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior (BLX). After Hours includes updates on horse racing, a recommendation of the TV show 'Bad Monkey', and reviews of Fritz Lang's film 'M' and Kubrick's "Full Metal Jacket".
In this episode, Tony and Cam talk about market predictions, and recent impressive gains in WGX, FND and WLFC. In the pulled pork, Tony analyses Redox (RDX), and then answers questions about portfolio strategies and buyback versus dividend yields. The episode also features insights from O'Shaughnessy's 'What Works on Wall Street', and After Hours has personal anecdotes about Cameron's Kung Fu grading, Tony's horse racing, reviews of classic films and literary works like 'Pimp: The Story of My Life' by Iceberg Slim.
This episode - an analysis of Pepper Money Limited (PPM), Emeco Holdings (EHL), Macmillan Shakespeare (MMS), and GTN. We discuss share buybacks, the impact of private equity ownership, the importance of dividend changes as buy/sell signals, the use of three-point trendlines in stock analysis, and the performance of the US dummy portfolio. We delve into O'Shaughnessy's research on dividends from "What Works on Wall Street", Lefevre's warning about listening to brokers, and explore strategies for stocks under takeover offers. In After Hours - Dennis Hopper, Rick Rubin, Slow Horses and Kung Fu.
In episode 741 of QAV, Tony and Cam discuss fear and greed with quotes from "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", analyse West African Resources' (WAF) market situation due to Burkina Faso's political climate, Bank of Queensland's (BOQ) franchise strategies, Tony's attempts to get ChatGPT to help with the Kelly Criterion, answer a question about US Dummy Portfolio Strategy, and discuss insights on price-to-cash flow ratios from 'What Works on Wall Street' by O'Shaughnessy. The 'Pulled Pork' section features an in-depth look at Adairs (ADH) and its new strategic direction. And, of course, After Hours.
In this episode, we do a deep dive into 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' by Edwin Lefèvre, detailing Jesse Livermore's life and lessons. We give AU and U.S. portfolio updates, some discussion about interest rates and the housing market, say goodbye to VUK, keep an eye on the iron ore price, reveal TK's recent mistakes, and talk through a quote from 'What Works on Wall Street' by O'Shaughnessy. The 'Pulled Pork' segment looks at one of our U.S. investments, American retailer Lands' End (LE), its history and recent quarterly results.
In this episode of the QAV 739 Club, CR and TK review their portfolio performance, do a pulled pork on Qantas, discuss the impact of the RBA's interest rate decision, and the effectiveness of insider trading signals and the impact of Dividend Strategies in Australia.
In this episode of QAV, we discuss the ASX's record high, our portfolio returns, Earnings Surprises, Vysarn (VYS) raising capital, and analyse the GenusPlus Group (GNP). We look at news stories about builders going bankrupt, lessons from the dot-com crash and share a couple of WWOWS quotes.
In this episode, Tony and Cam discuss recent commodity declines and a gold price surge and what it all means, as well as recent Brettalator issues and portfolio updates. Tony reads from 'What Works on Wall Street' talking about how value investing sustains through market bubbles. The 'Pulled Pork' segment features Cash Converters, analysing its business model, regulatory impact and growth potential. a big puntIn After Hours, they also discuss low-budget films, William Shatner's intense role in 'The Intruder,' and Nick Cave's new album 'Wild God.' The conversation shifts to Allan Lichtman's election predictions, Lachlan Murdoch, and a Brett Whiteley art exhibition.
In this episode of QAV, Elio D'Amato from Stockopedia interviews Tony Kynaston. The discussion covers Tony's investing principles, his journey from corporate management to investing, Tony's philosophy of having a disciplined investment system, and key strategies he employs in his Quality at Value (QAV) investing approach. They touch on the importance of cash flow over earnings, trend lines for timing buys and sells, and the use of a checklist for evaluating stocks. The webinar also highlights how Tony manages his portfolio and some of his stock picks like Boom Logistics, Macmillan Shakespeare, and AGL. There’s also a dive into the dynamics of market sentiment, psychology of investing, and how to maintain discipline amidst macroeconomic noise.
In this episode Tony and Cam discuss the recent global market crash, its causes, and how value investors can navigate the turmoil.
In this episode Tony and Cam discuss the recent global market crash, its causes, and how value investors can navigate the turmoil.
In this episode of the QAV podcast, we look at recent news involving SGI, ATP, FGM, CVL, AX1 and a deep dive into ABB's recent share price drop and business fundamentals. We discuss listener Conrad's successful modification of the QAV investment system, which led to a 31.4% return in the last year and review some advice from O'Shaughnessy's 'What Works on Wall Street' regarding consistency in investing. The after-hours segment includes discussions on examples of outstanding customer service, the benefits of rural call centers, and U.S. politics. We also chat about Tony's recent golf win, film reviews of 'Stingray' (1976) and 'The Assassination Bureau' (1969), and recommend the music of The Jim Carroll Band and Grace Cummins and the Doctor Who site, stitchesintime.
In this episode of the QAV podcast, hosts Tony Kynaston and Cameron Reilly are discussing a record-high in the All Ordinaries index spurred by the 'Trump bump', Aussie Broadband's sudden dive (ABB), portfolio results, more FY survey results, MLX's bump, the Shipping Crisis, thoughts about integrating "Buyback Yield" into the checklist, and Tony breaks down the history and market stance of Elders Limited (ELD) in a detailed 'pulled pork' segment. They also explore the Apple Vision Pro's new features and its future alongside immersive tech like Oculus Rift, then shift to the political scene with discussions on Trump's influence on global conflicts. The conversations touch on AI, Elon Musk's ventures like Neuralink and SpaceX, horse racing updates, book recommendations, and reviews of 'Better Call Saul' and Tom Cruise films.
In this episode of the QAV podcast, Tony Kynaston and Cameron Reilly discuss the necessary improvements and changes to their US portfolio, including updates to their buying checklist and new financial metrics. Tony does a pulled pork on the U.S. company Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC). In Australian news, they delve into market news affecting coal and iron ore prices and cover some more member survey results ad TK updates us on his Rich List Portfolio . IN after hours, they talk about Tasmania's MONA art gallery and reflect on AI's future, drawing from insights by Elon Musk and Bill Gates, indoor golf simulators compared to real-life golfing, and their upcoming demo of the Apple Vision Pro, speculating on technology's impact on real-life experiences.
In this episode of the QAV podcast, hosts Tony Kynaston and Cameron Reilly cover a range of topics at the start of the new financial year. They begin the resilience in financial and property markets amid global interest rate hikes, and how the gig economy affects unemployment rates. They also touch on the history and impact of quantitative easing, review their own and member financial year results, and analyze market news related to companies like Myer and Fortescue Metals Group. Tony provides an in-depth look at Auric Mining Ltd (AWJ) in his 'pulled pork' segment. Tony answers questions about tax rates and performance-based share issuance, then in After Hours they get into movie reviews of 'Furiosa' and 'Marie Antoinette.' They also explore AI's potential future impacts on job markets and technological advancements, referencing Ray Kurzweil's predictions.
In episode 726 of QAV, Tony and Cameron pay tribute to the late Donald Sutherland, then shift to discussing fluctuations in the crude oil market, a deep dive into Ben Graham's investment principles and their relevance today, alongside a detailed analysis of TabCorp Holdings, the market's over-reaction to HLI news, and FND breaking the curse of the pulled pork.
In this episode of QAV, Cameron and Tony dive into recent market activities, the RBA’s decisions, the Lindy Effect, substantial shareholder announcements, and GrainCorp’s prospects, along with a detailed analysis of Embark Early Education (EVO). Member questions about living off a share portfolio during down years and the differences between value and quality investing are addressed. Additionally, Tony clarifies the calculation of shares on issue for Rio Tinto, emphasizing global figures for earnings per share. In after hours, the duo also covers Mario Puzo's 'The Godfather', Alphonse Mucha, and the Archibald Prize, and discuss the potential and risks of AI, drawing references from science fiction. They wrap up with thoughts on films and books, including 'Klara and the Sun'.
In this episode of QAV, Cam and Tony explore the U.S. market for the first time, with a brief introduction of Tony and his QAV system of value investing, a discussion of value v growth investing, a discussion of the performance of our U.S. dummy portfolio, a deep dive or 'Pulled Pork' segment on Reinsurance Group of America (RGA), and a review of the FY survey results we've received so far from club members.
Join Tony and Cameron in episode 723 of QAV as they discuss a variety of topics ranging from American barbecue joints to the Hunter Biden lawsuit. Tony talks about his relaxing golf trip down the East Coast and the challenges of selling a house. Then we discuss Vulcan level emotional detachment in investing, recent market movements, and specific stocks like CUE, MME, and PRN. There's also an exploration of dividends and portfolio performance. In after hours, we're talking about 'The Blues Brothers' Sidney George Reilly (Ace Of Spies), Nicholas Cage in "Dream Scenario" and our plans for our first U.S. episode.
In this episode, Tony provides insights into recent retail sales figures, the market's reaction, and the concept of 'confession season' in the corporate world. Then he conducts a detailed 'Pulled Pork' segment on Stealth Group (SGI), a tool retailer, evaluating its financial health, market performance, and prospects. In the club edition, we also discuss the reasons behind varying member performances (and our own performance), and discuss the importance of sticking to a disciplined investment model.
In 721 we discuss the pain of FND, why Aussie investors keep investing in unprofitable companies, and TK does a Pulled Pork on SRV. In the club edition only: the myth of the ‘new normal’, why LIC AFIC is selling below its NTA, how Aussie investors can benefit from the AI boom, what we should do about copper prices being up, how to interpret the number of buys going down, how often is TK is making purchases based on factors outside the numbers, and how to interpret the resignation of the PRN CFO.
The Budget cometh, Lessons in Kindness from Buffett, and a Deep Dive into Boom Logistics. Also in the Club edition: Reflections on Jim Simons and Quant Investing, Navigating Market Fluctuations: FND and FPR Updates, Exploring VYS's Surge, Elon Musk's Suggestion to Warren Buffett, Marcus has a question about applying quality score to existing holdings, Jim asks about Life 360, Stock Doctor Data Integrity Issues, Nick asks about Josephine rules, Trent asks about AGL and LNG
This week we're talking about the Berkshire Annual Meeting, China's gold purchases, a pulled pork on EHL (Emeco Holdings), SXE profit guidance update, Regression testing Price < Cons, Activists vs Karoon Energy (KAR), Austal (ASB) backers want Hanwha Group in the race, TRS is a 3PTL Sell, Apollo sinks THL, Morningstar valuations, banks doing large buybacks.
This week we're talking to Matt Walker about his regression testing system, Stock Doctor's continuing data quality issues, NCK's UK expansion, HMC Capital takes aim at GNC, fudging DUR and LAU, and get some insider information about Austal Ships.
This episode includes a deep dive analysis of Bank of QLD (BOQ), Joyce Corporation Ltd (JYC) and Atlas Pearls Ltd (ATP), Howard Marks on Chess and Risk, Dummy Portfolio and dividends, and a regression testing update on QAV scores.
The AORD dropped this week, as did BOQ, TK does a Pulled pork on RSG. Also in the Club edition: WOW’s CEO threatened with time in the big house, FND does an Indian ATM deal, TK talks about the Pulled Pork and Billionaire Portfolios.
The IMF on China, Diller on Trump Social, Bitcoin and Beanie Babies, pulled pork on A1M.Also in the Club edition: Cash and Armaguard, Anscombe’s Quartet, Regression testing, Tesla veers to the EV slow lane, Ex-defence minister Pyne is Hanwha’s man in Canberra, Karoon plots path from oil junior to major through Gulf of Mexico, and a thought experiment about when TK would sell if the stock market didn't give live prices.
This week: Daniel Kahneman RIP, Sturgeon’s Law, Pulled pork on ASBPlus, in the Club edition: Valuing Bitcoin, Coking coal a sell, New Regression Testing results, Alchemy substack, Collins St does well again, ABB news, the performance of founder lead companies.
This week: Do ASX investors need to get used to expensive stocks, and a pulled Pork on G8 Education (GEM).Also in the Club edition: theories on why KSC spiked, whether AMC CEO’s sudden resignation is a red flag, MEA is being sold, Macquarie’s new FOMO meter, ABB’s Superloop troubles, and what to do if you still own VUK.
This week, while the RBA meets, we talked about ABB dropping 20% in a day, steel and coking coal fall, China’s economy beats expectations in the West, regression testing update, Damstra (DTC) is taken over, and a pulled pork on MSV.
This week: Delisting of TGA, VUK acquisition, Pulled pork on BOQ. In the Club edition only: SD fix NWS issue, IRI loses Chair of Audit Committee, Tony’s testing on 2BL sell trigger, Tony answers questions about how to manage a portfolio if you move overseas, reducing our average daily trades to mitigate risks of the QAV spike, the risks of cap raises, different ways how a company can take on debt, and the benefits of share buy backs.
This week: AORD his another all-time high, reporting season is over (but now we’re in ex-div season), ING recorded a massive profit but the market dumped it anyway, Pulled pork is on Regis Healthcare (REG).Also on the Club edition: Ray Dalio thinks the Mag7 are “fairly priced”, Collins St Value Fund wins again, Cam’s regression tests come up with something interesting, Tony has more to say on the shrinking ASX, and after hours.
This week: We discuss our favourite bits of Buffett’s new annual letter, and Tony does a pulled pork on Vulcan Steel (VSL).Also in the Club Edition: We discuss the results of a new 20% Rule 1 simulation, Reporting Season News, LNG is a sell, Data shows Cathie Wood's Ark is one of the worst funds, NVIDIA results, and TK's perspective on 'Losing too many stocks' to M&A.
This week: The market remains buoyant on the back of positive earnings, DTL crashes 22%, Buridan’s Ass, Pulled Pork AGL.Also in the Club edition: Darryl’s portfolio analysis, Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world, SD ASX 300 change, Jordan’s Renko and hugline regression testing.
This week: Market and portfolio updates; Nick Scali and Myer jump on profit results; the pitfalls of passive investing; the cracks deepen beneath the market’s surface; Woodside Santos merger collapsed; pulled pork on MME. Also in the Club edition: Lithium execs goolies; McDonald’s records first sales miss; Stock tips are for patsies; Matt Walker’s regression testing system; Three Men Make a Tiger; NWS shares in Stock Doctor; WAF’s forecast earnings.
This week on QAV: Market hit all time high, then retreated… because of McDonalds in Gaza?!; Portfolio report; pulled pork on Metcash (MTS). In the Club edition: CCP results and share price; System Justification Theory; Elon’s Tesla strategy; Jordan’s regression testing; hedging QAV with Growth stocks (aka the Anti-QAV); RBA leaves rates unchanged; FPR operating cash flow.
This week we’re talking about: Munger’s final portfolio, Base-Rate Neglect, Pulled Pork - TLSPlus, only on the Club edition: Evergrande liquidation, Aluminium and CAA, Fund managers reveal their big investment mistakes, Crypto still isn’t legit, Reporting season about to start, and using Renko chart to track Duratec’s decline.
On this week’s show: Retail traders are suffering from fatigue; Lithium and tech stocks crashing; AI means the cost of intelligence will plummet. Club edition also includes: Why TK keeps his mortgage facility open; Pulled pork on FND.
Market and portfolio updates, Brent’s secret QAV tweaks which delivered his terrific results, and GNC vs Wheat. In the Club episode, Pulled pork on Brambles (BXB), STOCKOPEDIA NAPS, the “Curse of Knowledge”, more discussion on Average True Range.
TK’s back to talk about: "Santa Claus" rallies, a Pulled pork on Resimac RMC, and using an ATR stop loss. In our club episode, we're also talking about how to score N/A on Health Stable or Increasing, and What I Learned About Investing from Darwin by Pulak Prasad, WHC & Thermal Coal, Skill Compensation, Dogs of the Dow, and the proposed Woodside/Santos merger.
On our first show of 2024, I’m covering how the market and our portfolio ended 2023, adding GEM back to a portfolio, TK has a pulled pork on COF, and I talk to ChatGPT about the role the USD being the world’s reserve currency plays in the strength of the US economy.
On our last episode for 2023, I’m flying solo, but I do have a pre-recorded pulled pork from TK on ERD, and I’m also talking about the sudden falls last week by CLX, MTO, and ASG, as well as the first of Morgan Housel’s “100 LITTLE IDEAS”.Only in the Club edition: I asked ChatGPT to pick out a couple of highlights from our 2023 podcasts for the recap.
On this episode: The AORD is having a good Xmas (so far), STW and AFI above their buy lines, our portfolios are doing well, pulled pork on CXO (Core Lithium) Club: new Commodity Status history feature, PRN poll, FPR net operating cf, CCP on a tear, talking about REITs, pulled pork on CXO (Core Lithium) and why BFG is having a run.
On this episode we’re discussing Charlie Munger, pulled pork on ING, and if QAV is based on momentum and minimizing losses.In the club edition only: PRN’s guidance, ATP’s bump, ADT survey results, portfolio updates, RBA rate hold, MMS losing a govt contract, ASX 200 stocks with single-digit P/Es, thoughts about VYS giving their Managing Director an Interest Free loan.
On this week's episode, I do a farewell to the late, great Charlie Munger, and in the Club episode, TK takes us through the analysis he and Ryan did about Rule 1 and buying from the top or bottom of our list.
This week we're talking about how we assess management quality, how to invest if you have a lumpy income, a pulled pork on MMS, and (only in the Club edition) Ridley Scott's appalling Napoleon film.
This week in the free episode we’re talking about how immigration is driving inflation, last week’s drama with KAR and NTD, how Oil briefly became a sell, breaking down BPT’s revenue from oil, the de-stapling of ABG and ASK.In the Club episode, we also discuss the CVL pulled pork curse, TK’s thoughts on the ABB SPP, a pulled pork on DGL and Berkshire’s Apple purchases.
This episode: Australian income drops, Munger says we need to buy tech stocks, Pulled Pork on CVL.Club edition only: ASX historical average 13.2%, Iron ore and China, HESTA fined by ASIC, ANZ's results lead to drop, how to deal with a situation when a buy list stock is in play, Interest rate rise means a change to IV value, MQG did not take an impairment, using Tradingview for commodities, and a refresher on what stocks to sell when you need cash.
ASX making us feel punch drunk; QAN revolt; MQG profit drop; pulled pork SSM; Club edition only: JHG delisting; Light Sells analysis; new survey on ADT; SSR down; FPR up; Buffett’s cash pile; RBA meets; cup tips!
Commodity updates; FMG red flag status; how share incentive plans work; In the Club edition: Pulled pork DTL; what TK looks for when he does a pulled pork.
We're in a technical correction; staying fully invested; CCP collapse; new 3PTL sells number jumped this week; Pulled pork RRL; the performance of AFI. In the Club edition only: Is being rich a superpower?; staying enthusiastic during a long downturn; how TK differentiates between quality and value; the value/risks of a concentrated 10 stock portfolio; WWTD if he had cash but a full portfolio?
"This time it really might be different” says Marks; Portfolio update by Market Cap; Pulled Pork on PRN; In the Club edition, we’re also talking about: Gold is a buy; PGH 2BL example; Chuck Feeney died; Joe Aston's final Rear Window; Has TK found a maximum size where a portfolio stops getting 'QAV like returns’?; Imagine the markets were to theoretically close for 10 years…
The RBA holds rates; Israel Gaza and oil; Dumb Money v Wall Street; Joe Aston quits; HVN SD update; Red October; Pulled Pork on SXE; Quality Score vs QAV Score; How TK manages market downturns when leveraged; how TK plans to live off his portfolio in retirement in down years; why was beginning of month chosen for josephines and not a rolling 30 day price; 'value trap' tool; the performance of our personal portfolios for this financial year vs the DP; performance of high v low ADT stocks.
Chris Batchelor from Stockopedia talks to us about how their product can help Australian (and international) investors make better investing decisions.Then in the Club edition, TK and I talk about the market rout, RBA and interest rates, portfolio performance, Woodside and Richard Goyder, the double loop concept in retail, putting Super into housing, Josephines and dividends, and the Murdochs.
Rupert’s retirement, YAL PROPCAF update, portfolio report, pulled pork on KAR, using 3PTL with the ASX.
CAGR reporting, YAL’s PrOpCaF, US Portfolio, SGM market update, Lithium a Sell for PLS, Viva Energy & Vitol, QAN troubles, Mortgage rate change 6.58%, CCP now ex-div, Brisbane catch up, Pulled Pork: WGX, borrowing against a mortgage to invest in shares, ex-dividend and Josephine status, and charting our buy list.
Steven Mabb, Chairman of the Australian Shareholders Association (and QAV Club member) returns to share his thoughts on proxy votes, QANTAS, Nick Scali, EML, Virgin UK, FMG, REM reports, AGMs, director workloads, auditors becoming board members, the value of independent directors, gender representation on boards, and much more.
Commodity Updates, WSI crash, Australia spooks global LNG markets, Buffett says he could make 50% return per year, FMG CFO quits, QAN in a bit of a pickle, Pulled pork on AIZ, are the sins of a former CEO carried forward, and an update from Tony on the use of RENKO charts.
Wheat is a sell; FMG is a red flag; PLS results and crash; AFG results and crash; the cost of timing the market; great guns; QAN results; Pulled Pork MAH; where the money goes; beta volatility and QAV; US investors who claim their methodology returns 30% - 60% pa.
This week on the show: PRN reports great results and crashes; China’s slowdown; US bond yields; SGM results; Pulled pork WHC; new mortgage rate; TK’s thoughts on Imugene (IMU) and share placements at a significant discount.
Fitch downgrades the US, Lowe has new ideas about the RBA, NCK beats the pulled pork curse, MYR rebounds, iron ore falls (every October?), Baby Bunting pulled pork, and problems with Updater’s delisting.
The market’s had a rough week, MYR collapses on good results, business confidence is up while consumer confidence is down, coking coal isn’t a sell after all, pulled pork on NCK, possible changes to Rule 1, BBN’s performance, and adding buybacks to the checklist.
This week we’re talking about what the CCP and TRS share price movements mean for the economy, the wheat price, the ‘year of the bond’, the difference between ETFs and LICs, and we have our interview with listener Brent Sweeney who recently attended the Berkshire Hathaway AGM in Omaha, Nebraska!
Cameron’s powers of prediction, FMG’s divorce, Bond payouts, what is a RINO, new QAV 3PTL sell alerts, do we get rid of 2BL / JOSEPHINE, Ryan's analysis on 0.1 and ADT levels, Pulled Pork on LAU, the HOPE model, BRB / RMS takeover, sell-side vs buy-side analysts.
Cameron’s powers of prediction, FMG’s divorce, Bond payouts, what is a RINO, new QAV 3PTL sell alerts, do we get rid of 2BL / JOSEPHINE, Ryan's analysis on 0.1 and ADT levels, Pulled Pork on LAU, the HOPE model, BRB / RMS takeover, sell-side vs buy-side analysts.
LAU is a the new Michael Jordan; selling MQG; URW updates; wheat price confusion; club member results; pulled pork on NZM; investing in companies with high levels of debt or intangibles.
It’s the end of FY23 and we reveal the QAV portfolio performance as well as our personal portfolio performance and discuss the performance of some QAV Club members. We also take a question from Alex about how young people might get started in investing, discuss the Dogs of the Dow, a pulled pork on URW, and potential changes to Rule 1.
On this week’s episode: Tin is a buy, which makes MLX (the subject of Tony’s pulled pork) a buy. BRK is just an oil play as far as we can tell, but Crude Oil just became a sell. We clarify Steve Mabb’s thoughts on using Betashares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA) to park our cash and agree it’s worth a try. Artificial intelligence powers US shares into a bull market, but will it help the AORD? Tony continues to criticise the RBA’s use of interest rates. If DBI is a “bond proxy” should it be on our buy list? C6C dropped by 18% yesterday - we don’t know why, but discuss whether or not there are any Rule 1 fudges.
On this week’s episode: Tin is a buy, which makes MLX (the subject of Tony’s pulled pork) a buy. BRK is just an oil play as far as we can tell, but Crude Oil just became a sell. We clarify Steve Mabb’s thoughts on using Betashares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA) to park our cash and agree it’s worth a try. Artificial intelligence powers US shares into a bull market, but will it help the AORD? Tony continues to criticise the RBA’s use of interest rates. If DBI is a “bond proxy” should it be on our buy list? C6C dropped by 18% yesterday - we don’t know why, but discuss whether or not there are any Rule 1 fudges.
On this week’s episode: Tin is a buy, which makes MLX (the subject of Tony’s pulled pork) a buy. BRK is just an oil play as far as we can tell, but Crude Oil just became a sell. We clarify Steve Mabb’s thoughts on using Betashares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA) to park our cash and agree it’s worth a try. Artificial intelligence powers US shares into a bull market, but will it help the AORD? Tony continues to criticise the RBA’s use of interest rates. If DBI is a “bond proxy” should it be on our buy list? C6C dropped by 18% yesterday - we don’t know why, but discuss whether or not there are any Rule 1 fudges.
While we waited for the RBA to raise rates yet again, TK talks about whether or not rates are the solution; builders going bust; ideas for what to do with our portfolio cash; the resignation of the Myer CEO; will DIY investors stay in the market; Navexa reporting issues; CGT positions; a pulled pork on AFG; the buy status of WDS and HZN; and waiting to see what happens with crude oil.
US debt ceiling hits the AORD; Doug Tynan uses A Checklist; Brettalator problems; Apollo is now THL; Using GPT to find companies with a qualified audit; Portfolio updates; Pulled pork on FPR; a refresher on operating cashflow v free cash flow; the correlation between VEA’s share price and crude oil.
This week we discuss the rough week in the AORD, with lots of sell and not much to buy; Commodity updates; sudden drops by CLX and ALO; tips on investing from Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money, and a pulled pork on FHE.
On this episode we talk about interest rate fears continuing to affect the market, PRN’s exposure to commodities, Buffett’s comments on The Intelligent Investor, thoughts about removing Josephines from the buy list, Don Bradman and investing, the Allkem (AKE) merger, a Pulled Pork on QBE, TK’s history with commodity sells, buying banks stocks, value investing article in the AFR, block/brick sizes were used in the Renko tests, does Tony ever check the stocks he holds against what their current QAV Value shows, Tony’s investment in FHE, the new Brettalator, and banks profits vis-a-vis interest rates.
On this episode we got so carried away talking about the highlights of the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway AGM, the OML drop, HotCopper pump and dumper gets prison, Light portfolios beating the benchmark, review the “The Lowest PE” rules, QAN replacing its CEO, NAB getting sold off, pulled pork on PLS, the latest RBA rate rise, the Federal budget, and reviewing the “Buy follows Sell line” and the “Latest Buy Line”, that we ran out of time for questions.
Tony is on his way back from Toronto, so I decided to have a chat about investing with the second smartest intelligence I know - ChatGPT.
Live from Toronto, we talk about the portfolio's recent performance, steel is now a sell, pulled pork on NAB, share investing vs share trading for tax purposes, update on Renko charts, and the new Brettalator update.
Our guest on this pre-recorded short episode is Simon Shepherd from The Investment Newsletter Group. They conduct detailed stock by stock, newsletter by newsletter tracking of many of the top buy recommendations from Australian investing newsletter - a worthy service. Find out more at: https://www.tinglive.com.au
Our guest on this pre-recorded short episode is Simon Shepherd from The Investment Newsletter Group. They conduct detailed stock by stock, newsletter by newsletter tracking of many of the top buy recommendations from Australian investing newsletter - a worthy service. Find out more at: https://www.tinglive.com.au
A short show today as TK is in totally Viva La Vegas and we didn’t have many questions. Portfolio & commodity updates; ALO acquisition; ETF update; pulled pork on RMS; and insights into URW.
Today our guest is Co-Founder and Managing Director of the company that produces Stock Doctor - Tim Lincoln. Tim co-founded the company in 1991 with his father Dr. Merv Lincoln and Stock Doctor was launched 6 years later, in 1997. Today, Tim has grown a highly successful financial technology and investment business that includes a growing team of 40 finance professional, thousands of long-term Stock Doctor members and over $800 million invested in their three industry leading Australian and US managed funds.
Lots of selling, not much to buy; The MAXIMS of QAV; RMS makes takeover offer yesterday for BRB; Bank Hybrids wiped out in UBS takeover of Credit Suisse; Banks and trust; Pulled pork : Ooh Media (OML); update on heavy mineral sands products; what to do when you have a commodity sell, but the day you’re going to sell it, the price is going up; the size and danger of ETFs; insights on the lithium/battery market; diversification with corporate bonds; South African corruption.
Black Monday in the bond market points to pain ahead; the impact of the SVB Collapse; Comms update; S32 - sell or not?; RBA lifts rates to 3.6%; Brett Fisher on Renko charts; Pulled Pork: SRX; using TTM for Op. cashflow; ZIM and its capital return.
Black Monday in the bond market points to pain ahead; the impact of the SVB Collapse; Comms update; S32 - sell or not?; RBA lifts rates to 3.6%; Brett Fisher on Renko charts; Pulled Pork: SRX; using TTM for Op. cashflow; ZIM and its capital return.
Another RBA rate rise; BRI’s underlying commodity; ASIC sues Mercer Super; GNC maps to bushel prices; LAU & IGL made the S&P All Ordinaries; Gerry Harvey wheels out his old material; Guy Debelle pops up at Super Fund; Solly Lew creeps another 3% up the Myer share register; Mortgage Rate survey sees interest rates back to 6.48%; Alex Hay on WHC ownership movements; Pulled pork on Duratec (DUR); TK’s experiments with selling stocks that are no longer on the buy list; TKs view on the negative market reaction to both CLX and DDH.
US inflation drives the ASX down; Wheat is a Josephine; Portfolio is up 16.14%; DP recent trades; Tony’s three life lessons; Ray Dalio existing Bridgewater; Aussie CEOs denying reality; QAN profit; Super changes; Berkshire Report; Mortgage rate drop to 6.45%; pulled pork on COH; CCP results; is QAV a zero sum game; WHC shareholders; XTE's results.
Market and portfolio updates; Pulled pork kibosh on FBU; Iron Ore is a buy again, but Andrew Forrest is insane in the membrane; Charlie is 99 and still doing LIVE Q&A for Daily Journal; Gurufocus v Stock Doctor data; AMP Results; WHC results; CGF - Annuities benefitting from Higher interest rates; QBE results; BNPL likely to be regulated as credit; Pulled pork RRL; How does TK plan to live off his portfolio; topping up when you’ve missed your Rule 1.
Portfolio updates; Market’s had a rough week; Thermal Coal Sell line; CDM shouldn’t be on the buy list; Yields rose as Lowe, traders lunched; RBA raises rates; Seven in potential merger with HT&E; Elon Musk sat with Rupert Murdoch at the Superbowl; Pulled Pork is FBU; U.S. v AUS short-term capital gains; why TK holds FHE; what criteria Tony follows to justify adding to an existing position; Where we are currently in terms of Dow Theory; MEA buyback announcement
Portfolio Updates, commodity updates , NCM takeover, WHC coal breakdown, RBA to lift rates, the FOMO rally, Pulled Pork on NCK, R1 trigger on commodities, a tighter sell line for MYR, What time of day does TK buy and sell, fudging AMP’s sell line, penny stocks and Rule 1, WDS commodity breakdown, and After Hours (which you don’t have to listen to if you don’t want to!).
Dummy Portfolio slipped a bit thanks to coal; Chanticleer and the Chook Super Fund; FMG result; ADANI and activist investors; pulled pork on CMM
Portfolio updates; Feedback on Fees; RIP David Hains; Member results; retailers results due to inflation; Pulled Pork SEQ; Is NGI a LIC; using your own rate of interest; Ethical Investing; When to sell; Increasing Investing.
Updates on commodities and our portfolios; Collins St Value Fund performance vs the DP; FMG has 2 finance departures; Mortgage rate survey now 6.5%; Magic Millions horse sales setting new record; QAVvers and fees saved; confession season; the lithium lovers are alive and kicking; using a home loan redraw; Terracom’s (TER) involvement in the investigation into potential fraud; CRN CEO’s retirement; Is TK fully invested? Pulled Pork this week is Seven West Media (SWM).
Munger turns 99, Commodity updates, Portfolio updates, commodity status on buy list, Pulled Pork on VUK, Brent’s returns, TK’s new year resolutions, AMPs situation re Dexus, FMG exodus, buying stocks when their sell line is above the rule 1
As TK is still on vacation, I went over our interviews from the first years of the show (2019-2020) and created this compilation of some interesting tidbits. I hope you enjoy it. The guests are: Steve SammartinoRoger MontgomeryNicholas GruenTobias Carlisle Michael Goldberg
In this final episode for 2022, I'm actually going back to early 2020 and taking a look at how Tony managed the COVID crash. It's something TK suggested a while back, because it's a good study / reminder on how he thinks in times of market uncertainty.
It's that time of the year when I give TK a break and put together a couple of compilations from the year that was. This time I decided to put to the test the idea that Tony's Pulled Pork put the kibosh on stocks. Is that true? Let's find out.
RBA and rates, Coal, Iron Ore and Gold are all buys, Portfolio update, bank dividends, Clough collapse and BPT, Pulled pork AGG, trailing stop losses, inflationary pressures, how TK comes up with hurdle rates, C6C selling it’s Australian assets, IRR v CAGR, share buybacks, how to get to Berkshire’s 2023 AGM. Blackstone to limit redemption requests, the impact of the gas price cap.
Today we chat with Todd Barlow, CEO of Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Ltd (SOL) about the investment strategy behind their impressive returns.
TK’s historical returns; Pulled Pork kibosh on GNG; SKT consolidation; SGM - Iron and Steel Scrap; Buffett explains his $750 million charitable donation; RBA taking a lot of heat; beware annualised figures; Portfolio update; QAN upgrades again; CLX Upgrades; Fixed loan rates; $250k deposit guarantee; Pulled Pork on DDH
Oil is a sell; Is WDS a sell?; Retrospective investing; Iron Ore Doomscrolling; Portfolio update; Selfwealth update; Pulled Pork S32; Stock Doctor filters fixed; MLX is tin; dividends contributions; share investing vs property investing returns.
Melbourne get together; The Bitcoin valuation model; Fake Twitter crashes LLY; Light v Club; FTX/ SBF in AFR; Brettalator beta; portfolio update; The mortgage rate; Nickel is a buy; QAV Stocks in the news; Australian banking’s Mr Clean; Pulled pork Self Wealth; What the hell are futures markets exactly; Coal Bunko Chart update;what's going on with IMA.
The Dismal Science; gold is a buy; portfolio is killing it (too good?); what to do if your performance sucks; ‘loss-aversion’ bias; NHC buy back; CRN ends talks with Peabody; New month, new alerts; Pulled Pork - DBI; what to do when there’s a big gap between Buyers and Sellers; Rule#1 Clarification; update from Denis in Kyiv.
Portfolio benchmarking, RBA interest rate rise, Thermal Coal sell line, JHG dividend, what to do when you R1 a stock that’s on top of the buy list (IMA), Wheat price on the rise, new Berkshire book, SUL trading update, WHC - MOAB Away, The FAANG index, Oil and Copper are a buy, what about Aluminium, MQG Results are in, Pulled Pork GNG, DRP vs DSSP
Commodity and portfolio updates, AMP AGM, WHC buyback, NWH Pulled Pork, GOLD ETF, reinvesting dividends, how the AORD works, Tony’s investment spread.
The bipolar Mr Market, commodity updates, PE clarifications in Bible, Qantas upgrade, ATL owned Camplify acquires European base, Howard Marks raising money, Pulled pork on SLH, Tony’s coffee with SOL CEO, why Tony has always been invested in WAM, advice on how to find a financial adviser, what to do if you’re going away for 2 weeks.
Oil, copper and gold commodity movements, SDG bought for the DP, but it’s in rundown, Pulled pork request from Ally: BST, Interest rate changes to Master spreadsheet, dividend payments and sell lines, investment prioritization and risk tolerance, 2% capital loss/risk rule, the TGA share consolidation scenario, what is the main commodity for S32?, the coal sell line, parcel sizing.
Liz Truss is a genius ; COAL - if thermal is a buy, and coking is a Josephine, how do we treat YAL; I screwed up with SMR today; Portfolio updates; RBA increasing rates today; David Gottesman, Warren Buffett Partner, Dies; The market PE ratio is falling; Recession in my mind, is almost certain; All ords down 7.13% on a 1 year basis. but the Small ords is down 22.24%; Pulled Pork on: BFG; the Investment Clock; how to determine if there has been a recent positive upturn; why does TK think "Capital Goods" companies are starting to show up in droves on our list; the theory of "3PTL Sells" and dividends.
Fund performance; Reserve Bank money printing and inflation; Labor and Franked Dividends; Pulled Pork XTE; share market rout; portfolio update; RBA burns $50bn in QE; Viva Energy Buys back Coles Express sites; WHC announces $2bn buy back; Apollo shares jump on Jucy deal; Kudos to ABC News; Doug’s shorting experiment update; back testing around observing major triggers of a general downward trend in the market; the pros and cons of ETFs; ECX continually buying back shares and Rule #1.
Founder-lead businesses; dividend payment dates; Stock Doctor and updated results; keeping LICs off the buy list; Renko chart update; RBA governor under pressure; new large cap stocks; setting up a $100k DP; GNP pulled pork; NL stands for No Liability; the benefit of taking profits.
Which stocks are pushing up the AORD; the making of a millionaire study; commodity changes; TER results; Pulled pork ALO; Renko charts and time frames; RRL sell line; sell lines and "not losing profits”; how TK does regression testing; would TK buy something that doesn’t have a sell line.
Iron Ore is a sell; Down days, up days… what about neutral days; Rule 1 and dividends; Josephine but above its 2BL; Happy birthday Warren; Taylor’s article; Pulled Pork: SMR; SGM less impacted by the iron ore price; GRR and Renko charts; ALO, a scalable software play; moving average v 3PTL; WHC thoughts
Time to check your 3PTL alerts; spare a thought for poor Andrew Forrest; NCK’s results; Ophir fund performance; Portfolio updates; Reversal of fortune for BPT, back on the buy list; Some old friends return to the buy list - SUL, BFG and WHC; SGM is a scrap metal recycler tied to the iron ore price; TK mistakenly bought KAR and VEA; he also bought NWS but probably shouldn’t have; Pulled Pork is ABA; PTB enters into scheme implementation deed; JHG price/op cashflow; the outlook for REITs; banks and 'Price to Op cashflow ratio’; TK’s thoughts on a 2nd sell line; has Tony found he has had any better or worse luck on stocks he's repurchased after making a loss; sell line for EHL; who is our Qaverick of the Week?
Our guest today is Brisbane-born, LA-based Tobias Carlisle, PM of Acquirers Funds, author of The Acquirer's Multiple and Deep Value, and co-host of the Acquirers podcast. We talk about the current state of value investing in the USA and why macro economics is "Astrology For Men".
On this episode: Signs of Coming Economic Horror, gold is a sell, CGF punished, portfolio update, mortgage rates update, reporting season updates, nickel close to a buy, BPT misses guidance, Pulled pork on SDG, OGC delisting, SKT pulls out of Media Works, filtering the list for dividends.
We bid farewell to ONJ; Portfolio update; 3PTL reminder; Catch phrase comp; Oil is almost a sell; Gold AUD no longer a sell; Pulled pork is KPG; AFIC Net Asset Backing; Is Copper a buy; Is TK fully invested currently or still being cautious; the longest period of under performance TK has experienced.
Aluminium is now a buy; CCP down on results; MLD takeover; RIO results; owner-managed companies outperform; Pulled Pork SOL; the “wine selection” of iron ore blends; YAL drop on Glencore sale; where TK gets his news during reporting season.
We farewell a QAV member; gold is a sell; iron ore is close; pump and dumpers duped millions out of Aussie investors; BPT results; Buffett’s casino analogy; profit taking driving up inflation; Duncan on asset washing; pulled pork on ACL; using the 3PTL on ETFs; has TK done better out of mining or industrial stocks; how and why of the Average Daily Trade rule.
During turbulent times, we have to have discipline; Elon and Twitter; MHJ shares up on strong quarterly sales; Iron ore about $5/Ton above its fudge sell line; Pulled Pork - AMO; MQG’s cash flow; CFO of ASX Ltd has announced her departure - a bad sign?
This week: I caught COVID, stochastic processes, interest rate rise, growth after corrections, Munger invests in Australia, the Coppock Curve, Buffet backs BYD, Pulled pork on WHC, 2BL examples, banks and downturns, and underlying indicators for retail.
As the financial year has ended, we discuss our portfolio performance, and then discuss BYE’s qualified audit, Confession season, mortgage rates, Pulled Pork is NZM, Iron Ore prices, 2nd Buy Line examples, and dollar cost averaging vs going all in.
Michael Goldberg from Collins St Value Fund joins us again to talk about how they are managing the current market. This interview was conducted on June 8, so please take that into account.
This is “the white-knuckle part of the cycle”. Portfolio update. Iron ore and gold charts. Stockhistory v Stock Doctor prices. GMA and mortgage issuances. The milk stool legs. RBA and inflation. Small rods is WAY down. Wash-selling. PE contraction. Pulled pork on WDS. Benching Michael Jordan. UPST. Lots of Rule 1 questions. Buying a "wonderful company at a fair price" and ignoring sentiment.
Our guest today is Dr Jenny Fagg, CEO, 2Be. Jenny has had a long career in banking and finance, with roles including Chief Risk Officer of AMP Limited, EVP of Products and Payments at CIBC, one of Canada’s five top banks, CEO and Managing Director of ANZ National Bank Limited, New Zealand's largest bank and wealth business, Managing Director of ANZ Consumer Finance in Australia, senior leadership roles in risk and marketing management at Citibank, and Jenny established the consulting practice in retail lending and customer profitability at KPMG. She holds a PhD in Management (Risk) and a Bachelor of Economics (First Class Honours in Organisational Psychology). And she is also Tony's wife. She joined us recently to talk about her new venture, her book, "The Gist of Generosity", and what it's like being married to Tony.
Why investing is a little like musical chairs at the moment; why we should like it when the market makes mistakes; Apple announces BNPL service; changes to cash rate; Pulled Pork on PGL; Yancoal takeover update; Iron Ore no longer a Josie; fundie performance limited by short-termism; how to stay sane during corrections; reporting of qualified audits in half-yearly reports.
My circle of competence is just QAV ; Election result, investing implications ; SEQ and the “second buy line” ; outperformance by founder-led companies ; NHC’s big drop ; YAL halt ; Murph from ABC died ; Howard Marks’ latest memo on investor psychology ; Sri Lanka defaulting on $18bn of bonds. ; Underemployment rate now at 6.1% ; NUF has new results and crashed ; Australians lost $10Bn in crypto last year ; small stocks and Rule 1 ; what do you do in a market like this when you have a full portfolio and more capital ; a strong correlation between dividend yield and the QAV buy list ; Analysis of price to consensus target figures ; ME close v Price Chg 1mth (%) for calculating Josephine ; when a stock has done exceptionally well (say doubled) would TK use the proceeds to purchase two stocks?
A few months ago, one of our members put me on to Benj Gallander and Ben Stadelmann, two Canadian value investors who go by the moniker “Contra the Heard” (http://www.contratheheard.com). They've been around a long time, have a track record almost as good as Tony's, and they have a checklist! And when I reached out to them to invite them on to the show, I discovered that Ben and Tony were actually friends, from Tony's years in Toronto. But in typical humble value investor style, they hadn't really ever talked much about investing... until this interview we did a few weeks ago!
We’ve been banned from talking about crypto and fund managers; Mark’s checklist for the checklist; kids and investing; commodity update; portfolio update; are we counter cyclical; new results in SD for ECX and NAB and PDL; CGT planning; top 3 LICs; S32 update; Renko charts; setting Josephine alerts; pulled pork on PTL; stocks and high interest rates; defining "independent director”; how quickly to buy after a sell; the difference between a Josephine versus a falling knife; gold USD v AUD; the ACL chart; operating cashflows and lease payments.
There’s blood on the streets! We introduce the underlying commodity Josephine rule, MML is now X64, aluminium is a sell, iron ore sell fudge, RBA lifts interest rates, Rule 1 price for penny stocks, pulled pork on PDL, what is a "Cash settled total return swap”, investing during interest rate rises, Alumina v Aluminium, Rule #1 alerts when you’ve bought a particular stock in a few different tranches, GMA and the Impact of rising interest rates, when to factor a dividend back into the price.
We’re talking about the Berkshire AGM, poor fund manage performance, pulled pork on AMP, the TRS CEO departure, CCP’s drop, linear v log charts for 3PTL, and everyone’s fear of low sell Iines.
We are joined by guest Steven Mabb, Chairman of the Australian Shareholders Association, to talk about the importance (or not) of voting in AGMs and how the ASA can help. Later we talk about: BRK AGM this weekend, China’s lockdown, Netflix’s stock price, PGL on our buy list, the Solomons and China, the BHP/WPL de-merger, over-exposure to mining and China, what to do with stocks that go nowhere, why TK prefers a LIC instead of a ETF in case of emergency, the importance of EPS growth, the differences between ROIC and ROE, and AMP’s ‘qualified opinion’.
Afterpay losses explode; natural gas prices at 13-year high; Stocks of the week; Portfolio update; selling SFC; Yield curve has righted itself; BRK has invested $22bn in purchases this year; PRU pulled pork; where to find board ownership if no SD; foreign connections to a non-democratic country; How does TK determine number of stocks he owns?; the impact the Federal and State Govt schemes on GMA; buying stocks with a small spread between the buy & sell 3PTL; digital security measures for protecting our portfolio's in a SelfWealth scenario.
RIP Chris Bailey; Platinum is a sell, but is ZIM a platinum company?; How will the federal election affect us as investors?; BEN is the pulled pork; the actual connection between Reserve Bank rates and mortgage rates; investing in diverse management teams.
Financial health RATING v TREND in the checklist, fund manager performance, Ukraine war driving up mining and energy profits, CAA aluminium pass through, RBA rates, PP on MAM, Tony coming to QLD, Salary Sacrifice into super, OP/CF vs SD OP/CF, FFX sovereign risk and poor financial performance.
AMI bad news; Navexa and CAGR; Stocks of the week; Santos’ big discovery; Max Walsh RIP; Twiggy’s perpetual train; BPNL bloodbath; ABA pulled pork; how to understand yield curve inversion; the psychology of investing; ECX and petrol prices; How does TK manage his portfolio when he’s on holidays?
Hamish Douglass resigns from Magellan board; Russia spiralling towards $210b default nightmare; “Asset Manager Capitalism”; Copper is a buy; GRR is now a Star Stock; MQG is back on the buy list; pulled pork on MQG; petrol and EVs; Buy Now or Later; how quickly Tony sells; are we crazy to be selling commodity stocks at all time highs?; IMA corporate action; understanding "right of use" assets; should we take industry sector into account?; sell line for MAD.
Update from Denis in Ukraine; YAL dividend and drop; Copper is a sell; Another construction company collapse; ASG pulled pork; buying new entries; MML CEO’s sudden exit; WGX announced capital raising; leaving a 10% gap between buy and sell price; CAA and the aluminium price; how to evaluate stocks that are relatively recent entrants on the ASX.
War driving demand for precious metals; how to gross up the sell price of a stock going ex-dividend; tech pipe dreams; new consensus target date filter; Denis contributions; MML revenue drop and bad news; rebuying a stock you’ve just sold; using EMA and SMA or "price change 1 month" to calculate a Josephine; is performance better over reporting season?
Markets and War; bank rate increase; MWY bad results; Construction collapse; Berkshire’s annual letter; GRR results; Portfolio average hold time; outdated consensus valuations; is five year relative strength important; calculating CAGR in Excel; red flag if DPR of greater than 100%.
This week we’re talking about Navexa portfolio issues, overconfidence in investors, Murph resigns from Berkshire, Berkshire invests in a crypto bank, Munger’s recent Q&A, BFG’s money laundering problems, HUM’s acquisition by LFS, CGF back on the buy list, S32 is Tony’s pulled pork, Ares buying into GMA, FMG is a Josephine, and then we answer your questions about Grantham’s bubble warnings, using trend lines to know when to cancel a Josephine, the iron ore sell price, buying stocks close to the sell line, using company market cap figure relative to Index Funds to determine whether a company's share price could be at risk of a near future increase or decrease, kissing a few frogs to get a prince, holding on just for the takeover premium and FEX's very low sell line.
Copper is a buy again, why VUK’s audit it NOT qualified, ASX CEO resigns, the impact of petrol prices, portfolio update, SGR has a qualified audit, NUF is the pulled pork, how to work with a stock you inherit, why we have no cut-off for low Quality scores, Tony’s average holding period, Andrew’s sliding Rule 1.
As we’re joined by special guest Taylor Reilly, we talk about flatulent labels, redefining how a stock comes out of being a Josephine, our portfolio performance for the FY, a pulled pork on CCP, Greenblatt and LEAPS, when to sell after a 3PTL breach, should MAM be on the list, what to do with stocks we get from a demerger, what to do with MXI, more about property v shares, and and whether or not we need to check for a qualified audit if it’s an ASX200/300 company.
Jam packed show this week! Losing money is one thing, losing your nerve is everything ; Iron ore hits $150/ton; CCP results are out, Stock price up 7% over last 2 days; ASX200 down 6.3% for January; How to calculate the Gold price; Stock of the week WLD; hostile takeover of IMA; investing during reporting season; the Fed put; re-buying recent sells; fudging 3PTL sells; Josephine charts; “A” grade companies aren’t “A” grade stocks; concentrating portfolio when there’s nothing to buy; using LEAPs; trading halts; Copper companies churning out cash; 3PTLs for WAF; BHP’s demerger; Rule no.1, should it be applied to a holding as a whole (average price) or to individual parcels?
Talking about the current market volatility, and whether or not we should wait it out and go to cash; we discuss recent articles talking about “investing” in tech stocks and crypto; deep dive on RIO; explain how the Bank Bill Swap Rate works; whether or not new investors should wait until the end of reporting season; getting back to the 'Buy Follows Sell' rule and how it applies to CBA; possible reasons why KRM has gone up and MQG has gone down; and the challenges in placing orders at market value.
On this episode we talk about MYR becoming a sell; Tony’s problems with Howard Marks’ latest memo; the new AF sheet; and our stocks of the week, including Tony’s pulled pork on BPT. In the club episode we answer questions about using West Texas v Brent Crude, using Martin Roth’s Top Stock book, paying attention to announcements during confession season, and what impact interest rate rises might have on QAV in the coming months.
Indonesia temporarily bans coal exports; GWR up 80% in 3 weeks; ANZ pulled pork; NTD SPP and Tony’s thoughts on SPPs in general; CBA worth a punt; iron stock update; How often to update sell alerts.
In our first episode for 2022, we’re talking about my confusion over some recent 3PTL rule changes, platinum being a buy again, what a “cleansing prospectus” is, Gary’s stellar results, some changes to the buy list, a pulled pork on CIA, CAA and aluminium, Nufarm’s cash flow, how to treat companies we’ve sold using R1, why we use operating cash flow instead of free cash flow, and whether or not CDD is a sell.
It's time for our last show of the year and my annual tradition of trying to pick some highlights from the last 12 months. This year I'm mostly focusing on the journey we went through with iron ore. Back in January 2021 we were talking about FMG and the stellar run it had been on, and why we weren't going to rush into selling it, particularly when it had a very low sell line. But as the year progress, Tony started to talk more and more about watching the iron ore commodity price which, even though the CEO of FMG assured us would stay strong for a long time, started to slide in the second half of the year, prompting Tony to make some painful decisions....
In this episode we’re talking about MYR and LAU warnings, replacing GAP with GWR, CAA upgrade to guidance, Trading View commodity alerts, our stocks of the week (FEX, GMA), our best portfolio stocks for the week, the world’s second tallest building is a warning sign, and CGF’s business model.
In the Club edition, we also talk about selling and buying back into FMG instead of just holding it, MFG’s collapse and what their management might be thinking about right now, and more details on the story about Tony’s 20x return on MND back in the day.
We chat with Luke “The Gibbonator” Gibson about his QAV-based YouTube channel “The Gibson Hustle”, about copper becoming a sell, iron ore becoming a buy, whether or not BHP is an iron ore or a copper company, Nufarm chemicals, and Magellan’s woes.
In the club edition, we also talk about platinum becoming a buy again, AJL’s qualified audit, our stocks of the week (GRR, GWR), if we should sell any stock that drops below 10% at any time, ATL’s merger news (ugh), how to trade during bull, bear and roo markets, BSL and iron ore, value price vs fair price, and CDD’s capital return. Then in after hours, it’s a lot of Beatles talk again!
This episode is mostly a recap of lessons learned, highlights and lowlights of 2021. We talk about our portfolio performances (eg the QAV portfolio, and our own personal portfolios) in this difficult calendar year, Tony talks about how there seems to be a crisis every three years, and we answer a couple of questions about calculated sentiment and staying fully invested during downturns.
This week we talk about the market’s reaction to Omicron, the new AF worksheet, builders collapsing, Howard Mark’s latest memo, new sells, our top stocks of last week, our stocks picks for this week and whether or not we should go to cash in the current market and wait for things to improve.
In the club edition, we also talk about why we’re not buying into ETFs and LICs, what TK thinks about swapping winners for something that is on the buy list, and if we should sell any share that has a 10% drop at any time, regardless of buy price.
And, of course, The Beatles.
This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week - ATP & SUL.
In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.
This week: missing the SUN sell; New Brettalator version; keeping an eye on the sell lines for the stocks of the week; the three fingers of the economy; the MQG SPP; the WAF SPP; Top 3 Dummy Portfolio stocks for the week; NAB is removed from the Buy list; SA enquiry into Kangaroo Island port; CCP and STO fessed up to Job Keeper; BPT CEO resigns suddenly; Why did FMG rise when Iron Ore dropped; GAP price drop after forecasting a loss for the half; Stocks Of The Week - ATP & SUL.
In the Club: is it best to buy from the top of the list or with new entries; the psychology of buying shares at all time highs; and avoiding getting lost in the micro weeds.
This week we’re talking about our top three stocks from last week (PRU, BFG, CVL), SHJ (the quiet sleeper), why you shouldn’t innovate until you’re a QAV black belt, why we should NOT filter Price-to-Operating Cash Flow < 7 (whoops), and why Rule #1 is important.
In the Club edition, we talk about the stocks of the week (WGX, ABA), the failed GCY acquisition (by WGX), the mistakes Tony heard on another investing podcast, whether or not directors taking large positions in their own company deserves extra credit, the weird CBA sell line, MAD’s weird share capital numbers, IHVV’s returns, the MQG SPP, Tony’s experience with LIC returns, and how much real estate is enough.
This week we’re congratulating Brett and Rowan on their performance, talking about KPT turning into KIL, ZGL’s sudden collapse, new ANZ numbers, the iron ore chart fudge, our top three performing stocks from last week, Tony’s stock tips of the week (IMA and AMI), whether we should hold for a minimum of 12 weeks, GCY’s PE history, what Level 5 of QAV might look like, explaining the flat bottom rule again, ‘massaging’ the process, new bank rate, and behavioural shifts for becoming better investors.
This week we feature an interview with Louise Bedford, aka Candlestick Queen, author and Founder of Talking Trading. We chat with Louise about why there aren’t more women in investing, how to use candlesticks, and what it takes to be a long-term successful investor.
In our club edition, we also talk about the three top performing stocks in our portfolio last week, talk more about market open prices and after hour trades, EWC’s qualified audit, the pulled pork is ECX, AIS and mine life, why Navexa reports we didn’t sell some old stocks quickly enough, AZJ’s sell line and acquisition news, Tony’s current views on AMP, and how much of Tony's portfolio was sold off during the COVID cough.
We talk about AIS starting to get coverage, the COG chart (again), our stock tip performance, our portfolio update, Charlie Munger speaking at Sohn Hearts & Minds, the SXL chart, the ASX200 average Price:CashFlow, lumber is a 3PTL buy, changes to the checklist, copper is a buy again, and SFR is our Stock Of The Week.
In the Club episode: platinum is a buy again, Tony sold HLS and bought NAB, WGX is back on the list, IKW is off the list, precious metals forecasting, regression testing on Tony’s portfolio, finding a sell line for stock that don't have 5 years of price history, the process of price setting on the ASX prior to the opening time, and how Stock Doctor calculate their sell prices.
This week we talk about hydrogen futures, the MOZ graph, our portfolio performance, selling MTO, our stock tip performance, Tony’s new idea to replace the 3PTL, GCY back on the buy list, CTP, IDZ’s qualified audit, mixed commodity miners, MMS, CLX, EHL.
In the Club edition, we discuss the ethics of buying coal stocks, using a 25 day moving average, the timing for 3PTL sells, Tony's thoughts on Elliot Wave theory, Tony's view on letting emotions impact an investing decisions and a review of ATL's price, and Tony's take on how inflation might affect QAV theory.
This week we introduce the “Gladys” graph and the “Napoleon” line. We talk about our stocks of the week (NHC, CVW), the doom and gloom in the global markets and how to use QAV to stay sane, the MYR collapse, how to calculate the sell line for SDG post-dividend, and the charts for AMI, BSE.
In the Club Edition, we also talk about when to buy back into iron ore stocks like FMG, STO sentiment and oil prices, our 4E submission to the ASA, why RIC is a “get in quick” stock, why BXB and ANN dropped quickly, investment structures if you’re living off the dividends (like TK is now), and whether Tony would consider investing in something like BBUS or BBOZ. All that and after hours!
This week we chat about MYR (Tony’s pulled pork), MHJ (our small cap stock of the week), live cattle futures, FMG as a challenger buy, ATL’s price increase, MWY back on the list, selling off the banks, using Sparklines and Excel’s STOCKHISTORY, discounting one-off cashflow events, getting back in to commodity sells, investing in businesses with mostly intangible assets, how to tell if Stockdoctor has the latest figures, handling tax time, and measuring Tony’s results by after-tax returns. And our guest this week is Brett Fischer, the investor of the Brettalator!
We chat with James Williamson, value investor, and Founder, Executive Director & Chief Investment Officer at Wentworth Williamson Management. We also talk about Brett’s new 3PTL tool, Gary’s terrific QAV-based paper returns on Strawman, MYE fatality and price drop, ZGL price update, FMG - huge drop, execs leaving in droves, CVW financials in SD, handling some tricky flatline graphs, Corporate Tax hike going to the senate in the US, S32 is a zinc miner, ATL and Camplify, MYR is profitable again, but numbers aren’t in SD yet, MWY removed because of lumber graph, SRG breached it’s Sell line, MIN - iron ore sell, why BLX fell nearly 7%, why CDM went down, why EHL and ABA aren’t on the scorecard, SMSFs and Trust Deeds, why TK bought NAB, why WAF is dropping, the sell line for ZIM, Copper price heading in the right direction, and After Hours!
This week on QAV we talk about Bloody Thursday, James’ great QAV results, how Navexa calculates portfolio returns, Buffett’s global market indicator, CVW hiring investment bankers, CCV’s new QAV score, audit reports still coming out, ATL’s audit, lobbying ASIC about 4E statements, Josephines being due to dividend drops, Munger’s “always invert” lesson, Tony’s pulled pork is AIS, James asks about modifying the QAV process for commodities, Steve asks about WMC’s audit, Dave asks about running multiple portfolios, Edward asks about inflation, and Mark asks about how Tony picks large cap stocks. Plus After Hours!
Tony reports on his recent analysis on companies that go from a negative cashflow to a positive cashflow; Tony has been trying to find a place where a qualified audit is recorded that makes them easier to find than having to scroll through the annual report; GLE’s results are out and their shares are up; Speaking of scorecards, we’re publishing our first official scorecard since getting our AFSL this week! ; Our portfolio just passed the two year anniversary and is looking good; Tony’s pulled pork this week is CVW, Clearview Wealth; and we talk about ASG, MXI, VRS, commodity stocks, VUK, HUM, CKF and CAR.
This week we have some big news, talk about some minor errors we’ve fixed in the checklist and bible, then Tony does a pulled pork on COG, we explain ASX’s cash flow anomaly from last week, Tony talk about some recent regression testing he has done on selling when the QAV score hits 0.5 and on using ROE in our checklist, Shell scenario planning frameworks, whether or not we should discount sentiment for companies with a small float, which part of the cycle Tony thinks the market is in and whether or not it matters, MYE’s falling QAV score, the sell line for CDD, the buy line for CAA, and how Tony treats REITs.
This week we pull the pork on EHL, and talk about JBH, QBE, copper, AMP, Warren Buffett’s goat, URW, SWM, HUM, RMS, BHP, ASX, BFG, MIL, ASB, MHJ, we chat with young investor Lachie Duncan, and answer a bunch of your questions.
On this episode we talk about finding ASX300 stocks, CGF is the pulled pork, range trading, buying and selling during reporting season, Rule #2, calculating portfolio returns for volatile portfolios, natural gas, palladium, nickel and aluminium stocks, taking quality of management into consideration, the CBA off market buy back, the MXI 5:1 consolidation, sell lines for stocks going ex-dividend and our TV, movie and music recommendations!
Today Tony is talking a lot about commodity prices and what their decline means for our portfolio. Iron ore, gold, copper and platinum are all in decline. We also talk about the “Dogs of QAV” model, SKT, RIO, CBA, DSK, Superhero's performance issues, and explain what a “Josephine” is.
This week we talk about why MML crashed after it announced its quarterly results. How Tony uses “Rule #1” to avoid losing money. Lots of interesting things going on with oil at the moment. How mergers and acquisitions can be a signal of late market cycle behaviour. Why FMG’s huge dividend payout is a signal of things changing with the company. RIO’s results in Stock Doctor. How Tony updates his scorecard in the early stages of reporting season. His pulled pork this week is CCV. How to calculate the performance of a portfolio with a lot of capital in and out flows. And the idea of adding ROE>20% as an item to the checklist.
This week we talk about MIL’s “Emphasis of Matter”, MXI’s trading halt, MTO’s sell line, MML’s sell line, ABA’s buy line, WWG’s QAV score, investing in QAV to build up a deposit for a property, Tony’s pulled pork is HZN, CBA’s sell line, MQG’s sell line, the oil price’s sell line, ANZ’s sell line, tailwinds, using EV/EBITDA, XRO’s sell line, how Tony defines an uptick, and our guest today (club edition only) is Alison Harrington, Brisbane Convenor and Education Officer Qld for the Australian Shareholders' Association, who talks about women in investing.
Amendments to the 3PTL wording in the bible; how to calculate performance of a volatile portfolio; creating wealth by gearing a property; updating your 3PTL alerts; the pulled pork on SUN; sell lines for banks and other stocks with high QAV scores; KRM is stopping gold production, what does that mean for investors; C6C has dropped, when do we sell?
Another long episode (1.5 hours)! We talk about our performance vs the top funds; Buffett’s ABCs; Why TK bought gold miners over retailers last week; the idea of a “second peak”; HUM’s exposure to Forum Finance; the performance of the 2017 Dogs; a deep dive on MML and MIL; how Rule #1 works; how TK would invest if he was 25 again; whether or not I should sell MYR; copper physical vs futures; and how to spot “bad news” during reporting.
This week we discuss our EOFY result (48%); decide to sell VUK again; MYR and Solly Lew; SOTW is GRR; the Sell price for BCN; contrarian investor Michael O’Higgins’s ‘Dogs of the Dow’ strategy; Duncan and The Mystery of The Reducing Scores; the Copper and Coal commodity prices; the chart for SUL; how to understand IMA’s market depth report; Magellan’s intention to transition its High Conviction Trust listed investment company into an active exchange-traded fund; would apply 3PTL to a chart given the effect of a consolidation like for COG; and the sell lines for banks.
A massive two hour episode (for club members) this week! We talk about Gary’s Strawman results, a final portfolio update for the FY, Tony’s SOTW (BCN), Dylan the Intern’s latest modelling on flatlines, the chart for MIL, why we sold ATL, lots of questions about using Simple Moving Averages, thoughts on DSK, why Buffett still owns Coke, and then we finish with an interview with club member James Oliver who is an auditor with a major accounting firm, and talks us through what we should be watching for when it comes to qualified audits.
With the ASX in free fall, we talked about ATL’s sell line, selling VUK, some new stocks to hit my scorecard, including CLX, NGE, VTG and SHJ, Tony’s SOTW (KSC), comparing using MACD as a charting tool to the 3PTL, more thinking about how to use the new flatline rule, how to use indicators to pick a conservative stop loss, routines for maintaining a portfolio, and the Woolworths demerger.
We debate the 3PTLs for ATL and AGD, talk about the recent jumps in price for AIS and CGS, the ANZ price, the lag in dividend payments, the results of Tony’s recent analysis of the performance of dividend stocks in the QAV portfolio, why fudge is science, the poultry price on indexmundi, how to manually replace the SD financial health rating, some formula changes to the the TK Master Spreadsheet, and whether or not the GCY announcement of higher costs is a big enough red flag to make Tony want to sell.
We chat with James Holt, Director, Investment Solutions at Perpetual, then get into news and Q&A. This week Tony answers your questions about how companies set their share price for a float, the application of Rule #1 vs. waiting for the sell line, shares that don’t seem to register any trade movements, how to build a QAV portfolio more weighted to dividend paying stocks, whether or not to eliminate existing holdings in ETFs from a QAV portfolio, and whether Tony has ever looked at a chart and thought I'm not buying that even though the numbers are good.
This week we’re talking about why we sold MRC and bought ATL; FMG is down and Tony’s current thinking about commodity 3PTLs; why we’re taking ETFs and LICs out of QAV; late stage market behaviour; SOTW; why we allow stocks in the scorecard with a quality score below 75%; why HUM is on the scorecard; if Myer is a Schrodinger; Ray Dalio’s thoughts on the stage of the market and how it applies to QAV; if it’s too late to buy into AIS; and why the score for “PE
In the first half of this episode we're joined by Navarre Trousselot & Thom Benny from Navexa, an online portfolio platform, who tell us a bit about the vision for their product and what they've seen investors doing lately. Then we talk about minimising brokerage fees, building a portfolio with lump sums, the 3PTL on VDGR, Tony's latest thinking about commodity sell lines, how to deal with stocks that cross their sell line but are also at the top of the scorecard, and what's going on with iron ore producers.
We talk about the bank results; tech wreck; Buffett breaking the NASDAQ; Increasing Net Equity v NEPS; re-naming the “buy list”; LICS and NTA; Price to Operating Cashflow for ETFs; Tony’s performance today vs when he had a smaller portfolio; CCV’s buy line; where the Top 200 ASX stocks came from; graphic positive sentiment for see-saw stocks; the gold cycle; and ATL’s debt levels.
This week we recorded while I was staying with Tony down at Cape Schanck! We talked about the collapse of BPT, why ATL is our SOTW, the highlights of the Berkshire Hathaway 2021 AGM, the importance of price to cashflow in our checklist, Stock Doctor's coverage of A2 Milk, why companies issue new shares at a steep discount, MML's 3PTL buy line, gold miners and market cycles, why BOQ dropped off the buy list, and then I get Tony to tell the story about how he bought his Cape Schanck property 22 years ago using his winnings from winning trivia competitions on TV and radio. Finally, I passed the microphone around after our QAV Club dinner in Melbourne and asked the folks there to talk about what they have learned from the podcast.
On this episode, we talk about our portfolio performance, SOTW, Colin Nicholson’s three market stages, Jack Bogle’s fourth law of motion, if SSG is a sell, the value of private banking, the idea of using increasing equity per share, and investing in Early Stage Innovation Companies.
This week we chat with Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer at 1851 Capital and then get into our regular show, where we discuss the MRC collapse, the CAA takeover bid, Geoff Wilson’s LIC strategy, our SOTW (DSK), if MYR is close to a sell, DKM dropping off the buy list, directors transactions, IV2 challenger strategy, why research firms suspend coverage on stocks, using (ATR) average true range multiples to set trailing stops, current US valuations, and whether or not TRS as a recent positive upturn.
Regression testing with Dylan the intern; “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation”; SOTW: MXI; Tony’s thoughts on investing in a NASDAQ 100 ETF; should keep our AGD shares; Why did TK skip past MYR on the buy list; capital raising only to institutional investors; How AGMs fit into Tony's investment strategy; looking at a Depth of a share chart; postponing a decision to buy a share based on the AFR headlines; a checklist for reporting season; how the current buy list compares to other periods; QAV book club.
Ray Dalio on BTC. Lou Simpson’s investing philosophy. The proposed TLS break-up. Selling low dividend payers. Tolerance for older data. KRMs health score. 3PTL for ADH, HLA & HVN. Tony's view on the Iron trend line. Replacing IV1 and IV2 with PE ratios.
This week: MRC firing their CEO and the price dropped 25% - why didn't we sell?; Lincoln fund results; ASA webinar by James Holt; WAAAX performance 20/21; CVL down 13% since we bought it; MAH groundhog; Flitman model is out; red flags for companies that might go into a trading halt; why share prices fall after they go ex dividend; how TK decides what to sell when he needs to take cash out of his portfolio; commodity stocks sell lines; sentiment for HAW, AGD, AIS; is GCY now a sell?
Selling BEN; calculating portfolio performance; stocks being removed from an index; companies with just six months of data; timing of a new 3pt upturn; share buy backs; DPS vs EPS; qualified audits; Vocus (VOC) takeover; highest QAV scores for ASX200; "GOLDEN CROSS" and "DEATH CROSS”; company notices; balancing out tax payable on portfolio gains.
Workshops; Lemmings; CBA launches BNPL service; CVL below the buy price; STOW = GCY; ZIM audit unsplatted; How Tony decided to sell a stock before the 3PTL; Should we fudge the ECX sell line; EVZ qualified audit; what metrics make up the SD IV; where Tony learnt how to draw 3PTL; gold price chart on index mundi; how the chi x works with or along side the asx.
The 2021 Buffett newsletter; Why we sold HAW & RMS; how important is negative EPS; the impact of unlisted share options; the high prices of the banking sector; Tony’s thoughts on Dividend reinvestment plans; and Tony’s thoughts on investing through high inflation or high interest rate environments such as the 1980s.
Our guest on this episode is American investor David Waldron, author of "Build Wealth With Common Stocks", a great, new introduction to value investing.
Selling HAW. GME lawsuit. Changes to disclosure law. Stock of the week. Return on Equity as a metric. Greater portfolio allocation for higher QAV scores. Trendline buffers. Manually entered scores. BOQ / ME merger. MXI qualified audit. MQG Capital Notes 5 raise. Selling “overvalued” stocks.
The Kohler Effect. Broker Speak. ETF surge. Rudi on Value. The "Buffett indicator”. Stock of the week - BOQ. On market share buyback facilities. GDG and Pooled Development Fund (PDF). Reporting season patterns. MSV impairment announcement. Last Period Analysed column. KRM care and maintenance. VUK sell line.
On this episode: GME update; BNPL stocks to be regulated in the UK; Roger Montgomery says there’s no ASX bubble; Stock Doctor commodity pricing; NCK is TK’s Stock of the Week; our portfolio EOM report; VUK cashflow; investing based on commodity prices; if TK would use options; what TK would do if there were two stocks with with similar scores; and is a buy/sell activated if price crosses over the line intra-month?
Hedge funds v Reddit. Ray Dalio on Bitcoin. Tony’s journal entries. Portfolio update. Regression testing Tobias Carlisle. TK's "war stories" of the '99/'00 bubble. CCV 3PTL Sentiment. KRM coming out the naughty corner. SD cashflow. Index Mundi data dates.
This week: ASX lower on fears of US bubble. Howard Marks' capitulation. Ray Dalio's thoughts on a coming US civil war. Using Gross Revenue Growth per Share to value "growth" stocks. Stock of the week - KRM. Using a logarithmic price scale. Tony's thoughts on the Blue-Chippers in the ASX. Determining 'Consistently Increasing Equity'. Defining 'recent positive upturn'. Reasons to sell. NTD and the AUD. Waiting for reporting season. How to apportion additional funds. Sell lines for GGE, NHC, ESS.
In our first episode of 2021, we review our portfolio's CY20 performance; margin loan rates; What TK does on a daily/weekly basis for managing his portfolio; relative QAV performance of large vs mid vs small cap companies; the 'minimum' amount of stock someone just getting started should buy; fudging ECX and VUK; whether or not we should rebalance every so often; Tony’s views on CSL; the recent drop in the prices of some gold miners; understanding the formula in column BK of the master checklist; why companies can have a quality score of >100%; and Stock Doctor problems regarding reporting of director holdings.
This is my highlight show for 2020. Obviously, from an investing perspective, 2020 was all about how to handle Australia's first recession in 30 years and a major market correction, so I've pulled together some of Tony's comments on those subjects in the first half of the year. To finish off the episode, I picked a couple of clips of TK talking about the miracle of compounding and why investors need to embrace volatility.
Our guest on our final episode for 2020 is QAV Club member Damien Parker. He joined us recently to chat about his investing and business career. After a successful career in accounting and a failed property development business, Damien bounced back to write 30 business programs/manuals which grossed $50 million - and created Positive Business, the longest-running newsletter to the small-medium business community in Australia. On this episode he talks about his Business Lessons, why he put up his prices, and why he provided a 120% money-back guarantee.
Last week’s jump in HAW demonstrates why we don’t sell until something hits the 3PTL. Would Tony buy still FMG today? What are the risks of buying stocks with margin loans? Can we fudge the COVID cough? Should we try to predict the future? What about MLD’s capital raising? What happened with MSV? All this and Day Of The Triffids on our last episode for 2020!
Is value investing back? Yes, according to the same people who reported it was dead last year. On this week’s episode we talk about Tony’s “Stock Of The Year”, why we use different Intrinsic Value calculations, whether or not WBC is a buy, whether or not stock consolidations are something to worry about, how Tony uses stop losses, whether or not we should only buy stocks with a significant director interest, how young investors should get started, whether or not it’s better to buy a stock immediately after it has crossed its BUY line, and how much Tony is guided by the financial press.
Can we ignore the COVID cough in our 3PTL charts? What do you do when you own stock in a delisted company? How would we treat Depreciation when thinking about CCP? Does a capital raise cause a bump in the price? Should we listen to Ray Dalio on diversification? Why did Tony buy SFR and not any of the stocks on the Buy list with a much higher QAV score? Should we add a ‘one-month up turn’ to the checklist?
Our guest today is Cameron Williams, sport editor at Channel Nine. You've probably seen him on The Today Show or Nine News. We talk about growing up in Emerald and how he ended up in a sports journalism career. Of course there's some talk about horses and boxing, but there also a fair amount of talk about investing, how to teach your kids about money and entrepreneurship, why he's a fan of Tony's QAV approach - and how TV celebrities buy underwear.
This week we discuss the current status of the Zimplats (ZIM) audit, Tony’s stock of the week, his recent journal entries, Kelly Partners (KPG), GuruFocus, and the KMD CEO.
Our guest is Doug Morris, CEO of Sharesight, the online stock portfolio tracker & reporting tool. We talk about his background, the vision behind Sharesight and how it can simplify investor's lives. Tony is a convert!
This week we talk about why our portfolio lagging the All Ords, sell lines for SSG and ADH, setting up a SMSF, using a DRP, AGM voting rights, qualified audit reports, and regression testing.
Our guest on this episode is Andrew Page, founder of Strawman, an online community of investors providing members with independent, peer-reviewed research and recommendations on the sharemarket. We talk about the thinking behind Strawman and how investors can get the most out of it.
On this week's show we talk about the HAW price drop, a highlight from the ASA conference, the Aurelia Metals capital raising, Tony's stock of the week JBH, and answer some of your questions about UWL, AX1, DKM, SFR, RRL NWH, AKG, how Tony calculates his returns, and why we use a 5 year chart with monthly intervals,
Richard Ivers is Portfolio Manager at Prime Value Asset Management, looking after their small cap portfolio. We chatted with him this week about his approach to finding value stocks.
Tony does a deep dive explanation on the Kelly Criterion and we discuss the challenges in applying it to share investing. We also discuss stocks that briefly stick their head above the ground and then retract them again (aka a groundhog), review Tony's thoughts on average daily trade volume, answer a question about whether SFR is a Schrodinger, talk about how the Reserve Bank's decision to go max QE and the US election might affect the market, review the CAA consolidation and aluminium prices, and Tony's stock pick of the week is KMD.
This week we talk about investing with your Spock brain instead of your McCoy brain, why Tony's Stock of the Week is SFR, why CAA might benefit from rising aluminium prices, how to regression test return on equity, charting the 3PTL lines for LYL, CCV, DKM, RXP, and SUL, and Tony's Melbourne Cup tip!
Our slightly controversial interview with investor Stephen Moriarty, co-author of the book 'Low Rates High Returns'. We discuss his approach to using CAPE ratios and Kelly Criterion to time his investing and determine how much of his portfolio he puts into the market.
Tony discusses the latest movements of "Doctor Copper" and explains why that's important; we talk about CAPE & Kelly and TK explains his recent analysis; and we answer your questions about how we should take into account a company’s level of debt; giving a stock extra points if it is significantly below its Intrinsic Valuation; fudging the buy line for IGN; KCN being cash flow negative; ranking companies higher measured by return on shareholder capital; estimating future profits of growth companies who stop spending money on marketing; and the Health Ratios for MQG.
John Winters is the CEO of Superhero, the latest digital broking app to hit the Australian market, which offers $5 flat rate trades. A few of our listeners were concerned about how Superhero "owns" the stock that you buy through their app, so we invited John on to explain how it works and why we should all relax.
On today's show: AJO quits. Unemployment in Oz at record levels. What does Tony do when he finds a “screaming buy” but can’t understand the underlying rational for the business? Calculating the SSG 3PTL sell price. Net Operating Cashflow vs Net Equity.
Bill Liao was one of Australia's original tech entrepreneurs. Today he's a Partner at SOS Ventures in Ireland where it manages their investments in life science startups. He's also a passionate social entrepreneur who has founded a number of important charities. We invited him on to chat about how a VC values a tech startup.
This week we discuss whether or not high levels of director ownership is good or bad; how Tony manages his portfolio allocation; broker commissions, CRN, HJPN, LAU, and the SAR and NST merger, and more!
This week we talk about why volatility and risk are not the same thing and why we embrace volatility in our portfolio. We also discuss how the ATO treats “investors” versus “traders”, the HAW dividend / capital return, and more!
Lots of talk this week about the new trading app Superhero, how to use Stock Doctor's Relative Strength Indicator, how franking credits work, whether or not Tony waits for an uptick before buying a stock, fudging the covid cough, borrowing funds to invest, and much more.
We start off talking about our Year One result for the QAV portfolio. Is 6.3% a good result in the current market? Questions this week include topics about how quickly Tony sells once a stock breaches its sell line; CCP's price drop; Macquarie Group's (MQG) profit hit; whether or not Tony went to 100% cash after COVID; what to do when half of your buy list have negative sentiment; and the Alacer Gold and SSR Mining merger.
We are very excited today to have Kien Trinh, the Head of Research from Lincoln Indicators (the company behind Stock Doctor) on our show! Kien talked to us about why Stock Doctor is such a powerful tool for serious investors.
This is the audio transcript of a Zoom group chat Tony and I did with some of our QAV Club members on 7 Sept 2020. Lots of great questions were answered.
Tony refines what he means by “the highest peak”; Steve Mabb explains his recent 3PTL experiment; how Tony would invest an influx of cash; selling GEAR and buying ECX; and running through TK's journal entries for the week. In overtime we discuss Japanese knives, David Lee Roth, Charlie Brown, Kill Bill and other stuff unrelated to investing.
Should we buy stocks on our buy list from the Top Down or the Bottom Up? That's the question we try to answer this week. Apart from that, we're delving into some questions of my own about his checklist, as well as listener questions about NTD, FMG, CCP and, in overtime (that's what I'm calling the QAV Club section now), Tony walks us through how he updates the checklist.
This week's episode contains extra investing fudge! We discuss Wilshire GDP / Shiller PE / CAPE ratios, what red flags to look for in company reports, how to score a New 3pt Upturn, Shortman, Warren Buffett's secret, and Tony discusses some of the latest companies that he has evaluated.
Michael Goldberg, one of the principals and founders of Collins St Value Fund, was kind enough to talk to us for 90 minutes yesterday about how CSVF became one of the best performing funds in Australia, achieving a 13.5 percent return in 2019-20 compared with the ASX 200 Index which was down 7.7 percent.
Questions this week about NWS; Buffett buying into Barrick Gold; what a stapled security is; what Tony's worst returning year was; whether or not we can invest in Apollo (ATL) again; and Tony's general process during the reporting period.
Question this week include how Tony uses the "most undervalued ASX20 stock" strategy; whether or not ATS being a Schrodinger makes it a sell; and 3PTL help on KCN, GGUS and FMG. We also discuss Tony's recent journal entries, Sam Elliott's mustache, Allison Janney the horse, Hamilton the Musical, and Tony's Rain Man-esque memory for details.
On this show we drink scotch and answer questions about sentiment, bad news, CCP's Operating Cash Flow, the sell price for TRS and investing in borderline star stocks.
We chat about a couple of recent articles (see below) and then talk about Tony’s recent alerts involving LYL and KCN. Next we run AMI through the QAV Checklist and answer some questions about why the “buy list” is so large and whether or not we should/could shorten it using Stock Doctor filters.
Another 90 minute Club episode this week! Investor, “unemployed shoe salesman” and new board member of The Australian Shareholders Association, Steven Mabb, joins us to talk about the value that the ASA brings to retail shareholders and tries to sell Tony on becoming a member. Then we get into this week’s questions, including how long Tony waits before selling a “non-performing” stock; whether or not TK would sell a stock in his portfolio because it’s QAV score dropped below 0.1; whether or not TK would wait to see what the US market does before he buys something locally; and whether or not he has tried applying Benjamin Graham's formula for capitalization rates for growth stocks.
On this episode we talk about why we are not trying to compete with APT investors; Tony’s recent stock buys and analysis; how he uses his “watch list” and why we’ve changed its name to the “buy list”; we we’re still manually calculating the price-to-cash ratio instead of using Stock Doctor’s figure; improved wording on how to draw a three point trend SELL line; and why sometimes a stock with great numbers might have a falling knife.
Tony's stock broker of 25+ years, Alex Hay, a partner at broking firm EL&C Baillieu, joins us again today to talk about the different kinds of buy & sell orders and how to use them. Outside of that, Tony and I also talk about our dummy portfolio, which made it back into the black, and some excel formula errors we've picked up recently in the checklist.
Here's our recent chat with Tobias Carlisle, author of several books on value investing, including 'The Acquirer's Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market', and the managing director of The Aquirers Fund.
We run the checklist over SFR, review Tony's recent journal entries, and then answer your questions about capital gains tax, share consolidations, 3PTL lines, why TK was buying BPT, OFX's cash situation, forsaking profit by waiting for sell line breaches, leveraging your home to buy shares, how the "Manually entered scores" tab works on the checklist, and whether or not TK has seen better/worse/same returns when his allocations allowed him to buy small/micro caps. We also review the EOFY positions for our dummy portfolio and TK’s portfolio.
Today we chat with Elio D'Amato, Host of Spotee, Independent investment expert and former Executive Director at Lincoln Indicators.
On this episode we talk about Tony's recent journal entries regarding ADH, WSA and SFR, then we answer your questions about why we might invest in companies with poor financial health scores on Stock Doctor; why Tony isn't a "range trader"; how Tony would start a new fund with only $10K; whether or not we should wait until reporting season before investing; definitions of "positive sentiment"; and the current takeover of IFN.
We start off this episode with a recap of last week's journal entries, then answer your questions about when Tony sells a stock, how to build a portfolio from scratch, the pros and cons of different Buy and Sell order types, and which stocks are in Tony's portfolio.
Our guest today is Johannes Risseeuw, Executive Chairman of Damstra (DTC). He talks to us about what Damstra does, what the role of an Executive Chairman involves, the capital raising process, and what Tony was like 20 years ago when they worked together at Shell.
We talk about the thinking behind some of Tony’s recent journal entries, including Eclipx (ECX), AGL, Credit Corp (CCP) and Sandfire Resources (SFR). Then we get into answering questions. Elmar asks about Michael Hill International (MHJ) and how to mathematically find out at what point the selected stock is no longer a buy. Chris asks whether or not we can use a moving average to replace the three-point trend line. Dr J asks how Tony decides when to sell a stock.
On this Q&A episode, TK answers questions about whether stocks that have been bought in an Up trend perform better than those bought after a break out from a Down Trend, about the relative importance of market depth for LYL, whether or not profit taking makes any sense, how he uses the the 52 week high AFR list, HUG lines, the three point trend line for ANZ, and the logic of selling AGD.
Stephen Mayne is one of Australia's best known and most feared shareholder activists. He's also the founder of Crikey, a writer for InvestSmart and claims to own the world’s biggest small share portfolio: 500 holdings worth less than $30,000. He came on today to chat about capital raisings and shareholder activism.
TK talks me through how to re-evaluate the watchlist when we are ready to buy something and then we answer your questions about the recently added Stock Doctor filters (SDMax, Financial Health Trend, etc), the GEAR buy last week, how much time Tony spends on his portfolio each day and the pros and cons of having a portfolio of only 10 stocks instead of 20.
Today "St Anthony" answers your questions, reveals the true cost of sending kids to private school, and explains how he approaches raising a wealthy child.
Our guest this week is Michael Dee from Pythagoras Investing - www.PythagorasInvesting.com. His tool "predicts the timing of upcoming share events and their positive or negative price effects."
This week we have a 100 minute premium episode answering all of your excellent questions about subjects such as: - banks and sentiment - AQG / SSR merger - Stanmore Coal acquisition offer - Buying more when the price drops below the buy line - Using a 5 yr/weekly chart to help fine tune your trend lines - using the checklist to score LICs - holding back on the retail sector - thoughts about oil glut and prices affecting Oil/Coal companies - During times of volatility (like GFC or dot com bust) did Tony notice a similar increase in buy/sell? - How Tony stages his entry into a position - How he regression test the results/model - The buy line for OSH - SFC sell price and recent update on their financials - How does Tony decides what percentage of his capital to invest when he BUY stocks such as MQG - How to analyse the TGP graph - Why the TRS, WPL and MQG charts are different - and Tony also introduces his new magic 3PTL maths.
Nicholas Gruen is an economist, entrepreneur and commentator. He is CEO of Lateral Economics. He spoke to us recently about Modern Monetary Theory and the short-term future of the Australian economy.
Tony talks about some of his recent "musings" regarding bank stocks and comparing the results of his analysis of using Stock Doctor filters versus our three-point trend lines. Then we talk about his reasons for our recent portfolio buys and sells.
Alex Hay is a partner at broking firm EL&C Baillieu. He has been Tony's stock broker for 25+ years. Alex joined us recently to chat about the services firms like his provide, his relationship with Tony, and what he thinks might happen in the market over the next 6-12 months.
We talk about the recent Berkshire Hathaway AGM, Tony "muses" about buying NAB without waiting for positive sentiment (shock! horror!), discusses some new theories about using Stock Doctor filters, and then he answers a ton of your questions about - pyramiding - whether or not Tony ever sets a margin where he always cashes in the profit - how to calculate the intrinsic value of each of the top 20 stocks - and a heap of questions about drawing three-point trend lines.
We're joined by two young value investors, Jackson Lee and Ricky Yeo from the Sydney Superinvestors meetup, who talk about how they manage their portfolios and what they consider to be their hot tips of good value stocks.
Today we answer your questions about why we're buying back into the market even though Tony has doubts over the recovery - how we account for the quality of management in our analysis - how much attention Tony pays to volume of shares traded - Stock Doctor's "Price to Cashflow" and "Price to NTA" filters - how to calculate three-point trend line sell signals - how the checklist weights ‘quality’ vs ‘value’ metrics - how patient Tony is with a stock if it drops soon after he buys it (versus "you breach you gone") - Stock Doctor's diluted weighted no. of ordinary shares vs 'Fully Paid Ord. Shares' - HAW's future cash flow - Milton Corporation's conference call - and how to go about setting up a brand new portfolio.
Chris Tate from Talking Trading and The Trading Game joins us today to talk about his approach to investing, futures trading and turtle trading. Then we answer some listener questions about whether or not the market has priced in the coming economic carnage.
How are Australia's two million small businesses coping with the lockdown? Is the government stimulus helping? What will happen to them on the other side of the crisis? To help us get our heads around these questions, we're joined today by Kane Kelfkens, owner of The Family Jewels, a jewellery business with several outlets in Sydney.
Then we answer some of your investing questions, about dollar cost averaging, the possibility of a US currency devaluation, the best sources to find stocks, and whether or not Tony sells his entire holding or just a part of it when it breaches the downwards three-point trend line.
Mark Jones is an old friend of Cameron's, CEO of Sydney PR and marketing firm Filtered Media, and author of the new book about corporate storytelling, "Beliefonomics". Tony and Cameron caught up with him in Sydney recently for a chat.
Tony walks us through his decision to buy some STO shares last week (as per the email we sent to QAV Club members on Friday). Tony then answers some member questions about Stanmore Coal, how listed investment vehicles lend themselves to QAV analysis, the KMT rights issue, and Roger Montgomery’s recent article.
Part 3 of our rebooted getting started podcasts. This picks up where episode 303 left off, halfway through the QAV checklist.
Tony thinks the market is going through the "five stages of grief" and we debate which stage we are up to. He also talks about the "Coppock Curve" which suggests markets, like people, go through periods of mourning. Then we answer some of your questions about: the best way to set up a profile to trade, comparing full-service brokers to low-cost DIY options, how to treat companies with negative “net income “, what Tony thinks about Discounted Cash Flow calculations, his thoughts on the possibility of inflation in the next few years, whether or not he ever uses options, whether or not found he has found any companies with good scores lately, and what he thinks about Kathmandu
Part 2 of our "getting started" reboot. In this episode we get into the nitty-gritty of the checklist and the data sources we use.
Back to answering your questions today, including topics about leveraging your portfolio, replacing Stock Doctor with another data source, banning short-selling, investing in REITs, how to prioritise the watch list, and just generally when to buy back in. Tony's basic approach right now is to "wash your hands - and then sit on 'em."
As it's been a year since we recorded our "introduction to QAV" episodes, a couple of our listeners suggested it would be a good idea to re-record them, now that we're much smoother on the mic. So we present - QAV Reboot. We introduce ourselves and the QAV system of investing in shares.
While Friday brought a dead cat bounce, Tony thinks the correction is just getting started. He says we're yet to see the impact of the coming credit crunch. We answer a question about whether or not Tony invests for the purpose of living off the dividend income, and in our club edition we analyse Macmahon Holdings (MAH) just for practice. As I say - NOW is the time to send yourself to QAV University. When the market turns around, we should all be ready with a watchlist so we can jump in quickly and ride it all the way up in the next cycle.
Tons of questions this week from club members about how to invest during a market correction. And as the market is still in free fall, we don't bother with a stock analysis. So we just spend 90 minutes answering your excellent questions.
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffett
Yes, the market is in freefall - but that's great for disciplined value investors. As Tony explains on this week's episode, large market downturns happen once every five-seven years, and it's in the rebounds that the best investors make big moves. He talks more about how he uses the three point trend line during downturns and we discuss some of our favourite snippets from this year's Berkshire Hathaway Chairman's newsletter.
Tony talks about the UNV offer and why we sold it last week and CSV's recent acquisition, which took it out of our portfolio. To answer a question from QAV Club member Nick B, we also talk more about when and why Tony will exit a stock. Our Stock Of The Week is AQG, Alacer Gold. And then, we watch in amusement as the ASK dives while we are recording the episode and Tony explains why, as a value investor, he worries more about his golf swing than he does and ups and downs of "Mr Market".
Steven Mabb is our guest on the show today. He's a recent QAV Club subscriber but has been a full time investor for the last couple of years, since exiting a very successful footwear business.He and Tony compare notes about investing in International ETFs, why buying stock #201 is a good strategy, neobanks, shareholder associations, and cheap brokerage versus using a full service broker.In our Club edition, our stock of the week is BPT (again). And we answer a question from Ange about what qualifies as a 'recent positive upturn'. We also talk again about the decline of our portfolio in recent weeks due to the COVID-19 panic. Tony reminds us about Warren Buffett's story about "Mr Market".
Our portfolio continues to take a hit from COVID-19. But Tony is as calm as a zen master. He's the ICEMAN. We talk about the corruption allegations against HZN and changes to CIA's listing. Our stock of the week is MFD.
Tony discusses his portfolio management strategy during a downturn like the Wuhan Black Swan that is currently going on. He also answers some listener questions about having a small portfolio and debt-to-equity ratios. Our stock of the week is Korvest (KOV).
This week we're joined by Rudy Filapek-Vandyck from fnarena.com. He explains his "super stock" or "all-weather performer" investing strategy. In the QAV Club extended episode, Tony discusses the effect the Wuhan virus has had on the ASX and our portfolio this week, the latest results from CCP, and we break down the financials of AMI.
As we're into "confession season" and have "reporting season" rapidly approaching, Tony shares some of the details of the filters/alerts he uses in Stock Doctor to find opportunities. He also answers a listener question about the benefits of using free cash flow versus operating cash flow.
Our stock of the week is CIA - Champion Iron.
Tony answers some questions from listener Jamie in Perth about balance between property and shares. He also talks about a couple of investing books he's been reading, and in our Club edition we analyse BSL - Bluescope Steel.
Season Two of our investing podcast!! We look at our portfolio's month end report and how it compared to the All Ords Total Return index and answer questions from Club Member Mike L about the accuracy of future predictions. Then we talk about commodities trend lines as a source of comfort when investing in coal, and our analysis this week is GRR.
Our guest this week is listener Andre Bravo, a Canadian who has a Masters in Applied Computational Economics and works in the weed industry. Oh NOW I have your attention! Andre joined us this week to talk about the app he has written to speed up his own QAV analysis, and then we get his help to analyse our first US stock - Hertz (HTZ.N). It's an interesting one because we couldn't use our usual tools and had to resort to pulling up numbers manually. The basic lesson is that the checklist can be used to analyse US stocks. Andre also asks a few really great questions about how Tony uses the checklist and gave a refresher course how on to simulate Stock Doctor's financial strength rating using other sources of data. Thanks for all of your support this year! We hope you learned a lot and are feeling more confident in your ability to analyse stocks. We'll be back next week with Season Two of our investing podcast!
On this episode:
We have our second QAV Club subscriber guest, Paul, a criminal lawyer from Sydney, who calls himself "a disastrous investor". Paul asked Tony a bunch of great questions about the checklist, including drilling down on why Tony doesn't try to understand a business deeply before he invests in it (like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch), and about understanding how to factor in shorting.
Cameron reads out some quotes from "Winning The Loser’s Game" by Charles D Ellis and gets Tony's comments on them.
Our stock deep dive of the week is MRC - Mineral Commodities.
We have our first QAV Club subscriber guest - Murray Bruce from Bruce Insurance in Perth, one of our first subscribers. He asks Tony a question about whether or not he is comfortable purchasing any share that rates well, or does he do additional research on the company before making a buy.
This week we talk about why our portfolio outperformed the index by 1300%, the wisdom of Peter Lynch, why Howard Marks wants to stay in the middle, and our stock analysis of the week is Universal Coal.
Tony talks about rights issues and some of the complexities involved in knowing whether to take them up or not. I know, right? Sounds boring! It wasn't actually, I learned a lot. We also discussed a few recent news articles about value investing, Tony reveals his wine of the week, and in our analysis section we breakdown the financials of Horizon Oil.
Another long episode! WIth talk about why we sold Apollo Tourism again. Howard Marks and the "Great Sag". Tony explains how to calculate a Discounted Cash Flow in detail. We talk about our friend Torsten's new bitcoin film "Cryptopia" and what we think about bitcoin as an investment. Tony reveals his drink of the week. And our analysis this week is Tap Oil.
In this week's jam packed episode, we answer the following questions from new subscriber Tess in Melbourne:
- During reporting season, how do you decide which companies to put through the checklist given there are 2000 or so listed companies on the ASX?
- The AFR new 52 week high tables have not been available since July, is there any other place I can source this info or can you recommend an alternative strategy for picking stocks to analyse?
- I would like to be able to perform my own financial strength analysis as I do not have stock doctor. Cameron went over this briefly in one of your earlier episodes but there are some gaps in my knowledge.
We also talk about the Sohn Hearts and Minds conference that's happening this week as well as the Wilson Asset Management AGM.
This week Tony answers a couple of questions from club member Dave about why Warren Buffet & Berkshire are sitting on a massive pile of cash and how Tony is preparing for a "global market crunch". We also talk some more about listed investment companies and in our club section we take a look at the financials of gold miner PRU (Perseus Mining).
This week Tony explains why he sometimes invests in Listed Investing Companies like Wilson Asset Management. We also talk about what to do with our worst-performing stock SMR, our extremely good end of month results, Tony’s horse that ran on Melbourne Cup day (not as good), and my son Taylor joins us to analyse oil and gas exploration and production company CUE.
I found myself listening to Kenny Rogers' The Gambler recently (one of my dad's favourite songs when I was a kid) and it made me think of this week's show.
"You gotta know when to hold 'em; Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away; Know when to run."
This week we have a lot of questions from club members about when to sell and three-point trendlines. We also talk about Tony's horse that ran in the Cox Plate and why the checklist doesn't have a debt-to-equity data point.
Our stock analysis this week is KSL - Kina Securities.
This week on the show, The Value Investing Guru and Cameron talk about some difficulties getting Share Analysis to do what we want; a new analysis tool called QuickFS; stories about Warren Buffett; Cameron's growing passion around QAV; changes to our portfolio involving Apollo Tourism and Stanmore Coal; and in our deep dive analysis this week we look at Mastermyne.
This week we have a guest – Cameron Britten from Share Analysis. As longtime listeners will be aware, Tony’s a big fan of several online tools and Share Analysis has been one of those for many years. They had a recent “re-platforming” event which took the service down for a few months. But they are back and we invited Cameron on to talk a little about the history and the future of the service. He also let us know that they are currently running an extended free trial service, so if aren’t already a member, jump over to their website and sign up today. Services like this make value investing much easier than it was back in the early days of Berkshire Hathaway and Benjamin Graham.
On this episode we debunk more claims about the death of value investing and how it relates to the “Japanification” of the economy; I come up with a new nickname for Tony; And we answer a listener question about how quickly he invests new funds.
Our stock analysis of the week is the diversified leather manufacturer SCHAFFER CORPORATION (SFC).
This week Tony answers questions from new QAV Club member Angela about three point trendlines, reinvesting strategies, and challenger stocks, and we analyze gold miner Ramelius Resources.
Don’t be shocked! On this week’s episode of QAV, Tony has some new insights into ways to analyse growth stocks using the checklist and Cameron has to pick himself up off the floor. In our analysis section for premium members, we look at FMG, Fortescue Metals Group.
This week we’re answering a number of listener questions, including one about how much attention Tony pays to “tailwinds” or macro factors affecting an industry or the economy. We also talk about how Tony deals with red flags in companies he has invested in, and he talks about some mistakes he has made recently. In our Club edition, we analyse Stanmore Coal again (we did it earlier this year) and take our time to explain some of the checklist columns in more detail. And Tony reveals what he wears when he mops the kitchen floor!
In this episode Tony explains how he thinks about structuring a portfolio taking into consideration your appetite for risk and volatility. In our Club episode, we also answer some listener questions about the process of buying shares, how to work out the most undervalued Top 10 stock, and the NEFF ratio. Oh yeah, and I sing Tony a song.
Based on an email from one of our QAV Club members, this week Tony shares his views on the various investing tax structures. We also talk about how we’re managing the dummy portfolio. And in our QAV Club analysis section this week, we’re looking at IFN.
It’s reporting season and Tony is EXCITED. On this week’s show we talk about the cause of CRN’s sudden decline, and analyse two companies – BHP and QAN.
We are also adding quite a few additional stocks to our dummy portfolio based on Tony’s private analysis.
Tony talks about his view on the US bond market’s “inverted yield curve”, and his policy for investing before and during a market downturn.
For our club members, Tony then analyses TWO companies this week: Beach Petroleum and Bell Financial Group.
Tony talks about the Aussie economy and whether or not he thinks the value of the dollar is closely related to a coming economic collapse. We also talk about whether or not value investing is dead.
For our club members, Tony then analyses our company of the week, Coronado Coal (CRN), who does pretty well on the checklist.
Today our guest is Roger Montgomery from Montgomery Investment Management to talk about his approach to value investing and what he thinks is going on with the Australian market and economy at the moment. Lots of great insights in this one, from the economics of enough, to black swans and what happens when the fear of missing out becomes larger than the fear of loss.
For our premium subscribers, Tony then analyses our company of the week, Credit Corp Group (CCP), who does pretty well on the checklist.
The last week of Tony’s vacation, so I’m playing the analysis of small gold producer MEDUSA MINING (MML) we recorded late June. Spoiler alert: it turns out pretty well.
Tony dials in from Ireland this week and brings me up to date on his visits to whisky distilleries in Scotland and his out-of-body experience playing the Old Course at St Andrews. We also talk a little about investing and he how he feels like “I’ve seen this show before”, meaning the current bull run hype. We discuss how our dummy portfolio is going (mostly in the green except for Myer) and for our QAV Club members, we have a discussion about Mortgage Choice (MOC).
As Tony was too busy evaluating the quality of Scotland’s golf courses and single malts to get on the phone with me this week, our show consists of a checklist analysis we did in Sydney in early June about Woolworths (WOW). This is the companion analysis to last week’s show about Coles Group, so you can see how two similar businesses compare in the checklist.
This episode contains the second part of our interview with Austin LIeberman, a private investor in Florida, who has been achieving remarkable returns on his portfolio over the last 4-5 years, as we try to understand his methodology. On this episode Austin tells us he tries to only invest in companies he can imagine being ten times bigger than they are today.
Our stock of the week is Tony’s old employer, the Coles Group (COL).
This episode contains the first part of our interview with Austin LIeberman, a private investor in Florida, who has been achieving remarkable returns on his portfolio over the last 4-5 years, as we try to understand his methodology. Our stock of the week is Afterpay (APT).
Matt Joass joins us today for a fun talk about his own investing strategy, particularly how to assess the opportunity of high growth stocks. Matt is the former portfolio manager for Motley Fool Pro in Australia, former co-host of the now defunct Three Wise Monkeys podcast, and is currently a private investor. Follow him at mattjoass.com.
Tony talks about when you should exit a portfolio you may have bought before you started your QAV analysis. And our stock of the week is Rand Mining (RND), a gold mining operation in WA.
Today we’re talking about when you should sell a stock that has passed the checklist. And our stock of the week is Vocus (VOC). A vertically integrated telecommunications provider, operating in the Australian and New Zealand markets.
On this episode, we talk about the RBA dropping interest rates and other signs the economy is weakening and what that means for investing. We also talk about how shorting the market works as an investment tool. And our stock of the week is Eclipx, a vehicle leasing company that has recently had a bump to its price.
Our guest today is one of Australia’s most respected financial journalists – Alan Kohler. Tony has been a big fan of Alan’s work for decades and was as giddy as a K-Pop fan about getting Alan on the show. Alan gave us his thoughts on the economy, unemployment, internet stocks, lying CEOs, and his role with the Australian Indigenous Education Foundation.
On this episode we’re talking about ethical investing, Bob Hawke, and, in our QAV Club episode, drilling down into the financials of Stanmore Coal. Stanmore Coal operates the Isaac Plains coking coal mine in Queensland’s prime Bowen Basin region.
Our guest today is Tony’s friend Joe Barberis. Joe’s had a high powered corporate career, including stints as the MD of Officeworks and Coles Express, as well as running Shell Australia. Today he’s talking to us about his investment strategies, as well as his thoughts on the future of retail and energy markets in Australia… and corporate psychopaths.
Today we discuss the collapse of Apollo Tourism’s share price; the recent Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting and Tony relates the time he attended the Berkshire AGM a few years ago; the trouble with bank shares at the moment; and then we analyse this week’s stock, Mitchell Services (MSV).
Myer Holdings (MYR) is an Australian department store group with a network of 62 stores across Australia. How does their company stack up to the QAV checklist? Listen and find out.
Apollo Tourism & Leisure is a multi-national company focused on manufacturing, rental, sales and distribution of a range of RVs including motorhomes, campervans and caravans. How does their company stack up to the QAV checklist?
What is a “yield curve inversion” and how does it factor into warnings of a possible downturn? How does he change his investing during a downturn? Find out answers on this episode!
Tony reflects and expands on a couple of ideas that came out on last week’s show with Steve Sammartino, including investing in index funds.
Steve Sammartino is another old friend of Cameron’s. He is also a successful sharemarket investor, with 25+ years experience, although his strategy is a little different and much less hands-on than Tony’s. Steve is also an author, futurist, consultant and speaker. On this podcast we talk with Steve about investing in index funds. Steve used index funds to make himself financially independent in his 30’s.
Telstra is Australia’s largest telco. How does it look inside Tony’s QAV value investing worksheet? Listen and find out. You can find key financial metrics on Telstra’s website or on Reuter’s Telstra page.
BHP is one of Australia's largest and oldest companies. As our first real life example, on this episode runs BHP's latest financials through his QAV value investing worksheet. How does it come out? Listen and find out.
On this episode of our value investing podcast, Tony explains how he consistently beats the market by using a custom-built checklist. He walks me through the metrics he pays attention to – and why.
Welcome to our new value investing podcast. My mate Tony is a very successful private investor. For the last 25 years, his share portfolio has, on average, doubled the performance of the stock market, every year.