Stock Talk: Recent Episodes
Aman Raina, MBA
Investment Coach and Founder of Sage Investors, Aman Raina chats about investing in stocks and ETF's and other interesting stock market observations.
The US presidential election is here, and with nearly 50 million early ballots cast, investors face a critical moment. In this episode, we dive into the tense market dynamics leading up to the election, with Wall Street's unusual calm amidst record-highs, surging crypto, and gold prices. As the "Mad King" and the "Prosecutor" scenarios unfold, we explore the possible economic and market impacts of each path—ranging from trade wars and tax changes to potential global backlash. With political uncertainty at an all-time high, I share why I’m holding steady in my portfolio and staying true to my investment playbook. Tune in for insights on navigating these unpredictable times as the US faces a potential economic game-changer.
In this episode, we revisit a key investing theme highlighted earlier this year: the impact of the US election on the financial markets. The discussion centers around "negative game changer moments"—events that significantly disrupt industries or economies. We delve into potential scenarios involving the leading political candidates, referred to as "Mad King 2.0" and "Uncle Joe 2.0," and their suitability for leadership. The conversation also examines the implications of recent Supreme Court decisions, including the removal of the Chevron deference, which could undermine regulatory protections for consumers and investors. The episode underscores the erosion of the rule of law and its potential long-term effects on market stability and investor confidence. Finally, we explore the broader economic consequences, drawing comparisons with political stability in other countries and questioning the future of US economic dominance.
Aman Raina from Sage Investors delves into his evolution of his investment coaching practice and his mission to make people more street smart investors. Reflecting on over a decade of experience, Aman discusses the challenges posed by the rise of social media, the allure of get-rich-quick schemes, and the misleading concept of passive income. He highlights the importance of filtering accurate information and managing behavioral biases in investment decisions. Aman also addresses the troubling trend of MLM-like investment education schemes and the impact of gamification and technology on investing behaviors. Emphasizing authenticity, transparency, and core values, Aman shares strategies to protect and empower individual investors in today's complex financial landscape. Tune in to gain insights and practical advice to navigate the modern investment world effectively.
"In The Loop - Take 30" dissects how social media makes investing deceiving simple by highlighting 2 posts, Investment Coach, Aman Raina recently came across. It challenges the 'easy money' narrative with hard truths: a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to break even—no small feat. Highlighting the Nikkei's decades-long stagnation, the epsiode underscores the patience needed in investing. Viewers will gain a no-nonsense perspective on managing losses, avoiding confirmation bias, and appreciating the full story behind each investing decision. Discover why the smartest play is often the humble retreat, and get a front-row seat to Aman's unfiltered trading journey—wins, losses, and all. Tune in to fortify your financial literacy and decision-making!
Explore the market beyond the giants with our latest episode of "Stock Talk - In The Loop: Size Does Not Always Matter." We unravel the misconception that bigger always means better in the stock market. Dive into a discussion on why mega-corporations like Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet shouldn't overshadow the entire market, despite dominating headlines and portfolios. Learn about the potential of 'smaller' yet sturdy companies, the significance of Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), and how the 'Mag 7' influence market dynamics. Join us to discover investment strategies that look past the trillion-dollar hype to find tomorrow's winners.
In this episode we dive into the burgeoning world of AI. With a critical eye, we takes a shot at dissecting the hype, coming from Wall Street and the Corporate World versus reality of automating tasks in industries once considered untouchable, like law and science. We question the readiness of AI for mainstream use, sharing firsthand experiences with AI tools that reveal inconsistencies and unexpected outcomes. From legal implications to job market disruptions, we explore the potential and pitfalls of AI. Discover why, despite immediate gains, AI might not be the game-changer it's touted to be and how it could impact future growth. Tune in for a candid look at AI’s place in our society and its influence on the ever-changing job landscape.
Investment Coach Aman Raina attempts to unravel the adage that time in the market trumps timing the market. This episode dissects historical data, showing how a long-term investment horizon can significantly increase your chances of portfolio growth. He discusses the dichotomy of investment strategies during various economic and political climates, backed by a century of Dow Jones Industrial data and S&P 500 returns. But it's not all green; Aman also confronts the potential pitfalls and psychological hurdles that can derail an investor's journey. From market bias to the seduction of reactionary moves, learn how to maintain your investing discipline and develop the competencies needed for investing success. This episode is helpful for anyone looking to fortify their financial future against the tides of uncertainty.
In the this episode, we dive into the evolving landscape of investment sentiment as the spectre of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) returns to the market. Despite pervasive concerns of an imminent recession and the anticipation of falling interest rates, the Smart Money and Soothsayers have been proven wrong (again) as the economy remains resilient, and interest rates stabilize.We explore the recent trends where many investors, having sat out the bull run due to fear, are now witnessing the S&P and other indexes reach new highs, sparking a renewed sense of FOMO. The podcast addresses the personal investment strategies that have leaned towards fixed income, reaping benefits, while also acknowledging the missed opportunities in technology sectors, particularly in FAANG stocks, which were a profitable venture in the previous year.The episode discusses the psychological challenges of investing, including the biases and groupthink that can influence decision-making, and the occupational hazards of chasing trends. We delve into the importance of sticking to one's core investing ideology, focusing on wealth-creating companies selling for cheap and being disciplined, patient, and ready to endure the discomfort that comes with long-term investment strategies.Additionally, the podcast provides insights into current investments that may be out of favour but hold potential for future rewards. There's also a discussion on the bond market and the strategy to handle potential shifts in interest rates.Tune in to understand how to navigate the emotional roller coaster of FOMO investing, make uncomfortable but potentially rewarding decisions, and remain faithful to your investing principles for long-term success.
We dive into the perplexing world of financial forecasts. Despite being highly intelligent and well-compensated, market strategists and analysts in the investment industry have repeatedly made inaccurate predictions, most recently concerning the timing of interest rate cuts. The episode explores the reasons behind our tendency to heed their advice and the biases that cloud judgment, such as confirmation bias and groupthink. With a critical eye on the patterns of past financial events, from the COVID-19 crisis to the dot com bust, the discussion challenges listeners to adopt a second-level thinking attitude and to distinguish essential market fundamentals from misleading predictions. Learn why, in the unpredictable dance of the markets, becoming street-smart in filtering information from shouting predictions is more vital than ever.
In this episode, the focus is on a crucial investment theme for the upcoming year: the influence of the U.S. political climate, particularly the risk of autocratic governance, on global markets. Aman examines the potential shift away from democratic principles in the U.S. and its impact on economic stability and investor confidence. Highlighting concerns the return of the "Mad King", the episode explores the ramifications of such leadership for the U.S. and its global economic standing. The episode offers insights into adapting investment strategies amid political uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of considering more stable markets.
In this episode of the Aman shares how he is approaching his decision making going into the new year. He emphasizes the futility of trying to predict market movements and instead focus on the importance of long-term and educated decision-making in investments. With a clear, engaging narrative, the Aman shares his personal investment themes and how he intends to navigate through varying market conditions, and aligning with his investment ideology. The discussion pivots around adapting investment portfolios in a world of higher interest rates and the potential shift from fixed income to equities. This episode is particularly engaging for its deep dive into various investment themes, such as Emerging Markets, REITs, and luxury retail stocks, offering a comprehensive outlook for both novice and seasoned investors. The pragmatic approach to investing, coupled with the Aman's expertise, makes this episode a must-listen for anyone looking to refine their investment strategies for the year ahead.
In this episode, we dissect the financial indicators that are currently painting a vivid picture of the economic landscape. The conversation begins with a deep dive into the steepening yield curve and its historical significance as a precursor to recessions. Though the inverted yield curve has long been a reliable indicator of economic downturns, its effects are not immediately felt; the fallout could be delayed by months or even years. We shed some light on the current state where long-term yields have been climbing, especially in the US, inching towards a flat curve, which historically has brought economies closer to recessions, especially coming off a period of yield curve inversion.Transitioning from global economic indicators, the discussion pivots to the domestic financial arena, focusing on the High-Interest Savings Accounts (HISA) and the recent regulatory pullback in Canada. Over the last 15 years, the near-zero rate environment has challenged savers and low-risk investors to find yield, often nudging them higher on the risk curve. The recent uptick in rates ushered in a plethora of opportunities in the fixed income domain, particularly the High-Interest Savings Accounts ETFs, which offered a haven for capital while providing meaningful near-equity liquid returns with lower risk profiles, boasting up to 5-5.5% returns.However, this financial refuge didn't sit well with banks, leading to a robust lobbying effort to regulators to rein in on these products. The regulatory bodies acquiesced, introducing measures that pared nearly 0.5% off returns. This move, aimed at securing a backdoor 0.5% margin for banks, starkly contrasts with the ethos of ensuring the safety and security of Canadian investors. The episode also touches on the irony where certain banks and brokerages like TD have barred these trades, while risk-laden triple inverse emerging market crypto ETFs continue to operate without a hitch.
In this episode, we delve into the recent strategic moves I've made in my portfolio, which may have caught some by surprise but are rooted in my reading of evolving market dynamics. Here’s a breakdown of the latest decisions: exited positions in Costco with a 17% gain, Empire at break-even, Walmart with a 17.5% gain, Target at a -2% loss, and iShares Pharma at a loss of 3.6%. These are substantial moves that weren’t initially on my agenda. It’s important to note that these decisions weren’t based on the underlying fundamentals or valuations of these companies – which I continue to appreciate. The catalyst was rather a growing sense of a short-term negative game-changer moment on the horizon. I've previously discussed the potential impact of Ozempic, and more broadly, the GLP-1 family of drugs, on sectors beyond healthcare due to their potential in reducing obesity and promoting weight loss. This thread pulls at the fabric of various industries: The potential societal disruption is enormous, and while the world buzzes about AI and ChatGPT, this healthcare evolution could be a parallel narrative growing in significance. Reflecting on my portfolio, the decent returns already achieved were near my threshold of satisfaction. The decision to secure these profits and transition to lower risk, chunky yield options seemed a prudent move amidst the growing narrative. The key takeaway here is that admiring a company doesn't always equate to liking its stock at a given moment. While I have a positive outlook on COST and WMT, the short-term negative sentiment driving down stock values led me to bank the profits and await a more opportune entry point. Concerns loom around the long-term impacts of these drugs, creating a potential false sense of security leading to overeating, and the unknown side effects that could emerge over time. The play moving forward hinges on the momentum GLP-1 drugs gain. If this narrative unfolds akin to how AI captured market attention, it could depress stock values in the short term. This scenario presents an opportunity to re-enter at a more favorable price point. If it doesn’t pan out, the gains locked in provide a cushion to strategize for another day, especially with external market pressures like high valuation, sustained high rates, inflation, a potential hard landing, and geopolitical tensions looming large.
The markets have been behaving very roller coaster like. Last week brought much hand wringing by investors as they comes to grips with the concept of interest rates and cost of capital staying higher for a longer period of time. Then the next week, everything is chill. The last few weeks have presented some important learning moments and takeaways which Aman shares.
Today we delve into the ongoing market recalibration as investors and institutions adjust to a high-interest rate, slow growth, and sticky inflation scenario. Wall Street and Bay Street, initially resistant to acknowledging the shifting dynamics, are now coming to terms with a reality that contradicts earlier forecasts. A group, notably with a less than stellar track record, had incorrectly predicted the transitory nature of inflation, the onset of a recession by mid-2023, a soft landing, and a decline in interest rates by this time. Despite these missteps, there's a continued reliance on the insights from these factions, raising questions on the prudence of such reliance.Breaking down the terminology, 'sticky inflation' refers to a scenario of lower inflation rates, albeit higher than what we've been accustomed to. Factors contributing to this include regionalization of global trade, adjustments in supply chains, and the transition towards climate-friendly technologies. High-interest rates, on the other hand, translate to a higher cost of capital, subsequently leading to a decrease in asset values. Additionally, slower economic growth forecasts are predicting slower earnings, which play into lower asset prices, essentially impacting stock values negatively. Interestingly, bond prices continue to trend upward despite economic indicators hinting at a slowdown, an impending recession, and an inverted yield curve. This trend seems to be dissociated from economic or inflationary factors and is more so a result of supply issues. The extension of the debt ceiling has propelled the Treasury towards raising funds through the debt market. However, with China facing its own set of challenges and banks entangled in their dilemmas, there has been a notable absence of buyers. Furthermore, the supply of bonds is dwindling as the Federal Reserve has ceased purchasing bonds, and existing bonds are retiring upon maturity. The ensuing scenario is one of lower bond prices correlating to higher yields. As the market undergoes this period of adjustment and recalibration, the discourse is veering towards whether a slow, painful grind downwards or an abrupt '87 style crash is on the horizon. Some argue for a quick, 'rip off the bandaid' approach. In terms of strategic plays, the allure of bonds, especially in the short term, is becoming more pronounced as they offer near-equity returns amidst the current market volatility. The narrative is slightly different in the medium to long term; expectations are that interest rates will peak and then descend, presenting a golden opportunity for capital gains in bonds. Concurrently, quality assets may be undervalued, paving the way for intriguing investment prospects in sectors like banks, utilities, luxury retail, and for the contrarian investor, commercial real estate in anticipation of a full-scale return to office work. Now, as we maneuver through this transitional phase, the looming question remains: How can investors strategically position themselves to not only weather the storm but thrive amidst the evolving financial landscape?
Some initial takes on what's driving the markets right now....AI!!!Initial thoughts on my first uses. Limitations on the technology Impacts on ability to make investment decisions. Short-Term/Long-Term impacts
Unpacking the Debt Ceiling Angst.What is it all about?What are the impacts on stocks, economy, inflation, currency, interest rates?Do they really want to go there?
Zombie companies are running rampant. If rates stay higher for longer, it could bring another round of pain potentially having greater impacts. At the same time it reinforces my investing ideology and how my latest investment decision provides a real-time example and tale.
Investor sentiment is lousy. Economic data not looking great yet stock prices are holding their own and even going up. What gives? Many investors are scratching their head trying to rationalize this. We offer some takes.
We're entering another period where investing is getting weird again, but this time the weirdness may actually bring about some positive investing opportunities we haven't experienced in generations. Aman shares some takes on how as investors, we have more options for yield at lower risk profiles and at some point options for growth at lower price points.
Food price shock continues unabated, especially in the restaurant space. This is setting up a bifurcation in how we eat out. Some takes on some emerging narratives.
As the bank deposit angst appears to be subsiding (for now), there are some underlying themes regarding US banks that are emerging. Not all US banks are created equal. Unfortunately some are getting thrown out with the bathwater and creating some interesting opportunities.
The recent bank run in Silicon Valley Bank and other small banks just didn't happen suddenly. It's been brewing and simmering over many months thanks to the pop in interest rates as it has created a lightbulb moment for many investors. A quick breakdown.
The banking deposit episodes with Silicon Valley Bank et al reveal an uncomfortable truth. Investing is hard and every investment decision we make has to factor in risk. Also there are events that are out there that will come out of nowhere. The so called Black Swans events.After the SVB and Credit Suisse debacles, I've been asking myself, "What Else is Out There?" In this take I share a few possible Black Swan events that could impact our investing decisions. Some are near by and some are far out. As investors it's important that we stretch our thinking and explore all possible scenarios as we make decisions.
Deconstructing the Silicon Valley Bank demise.What happened?What are the impacts? As investors how do we move forward?
How realistic is the Central Bank inflation target of 2% and what's the impact to going hard core on higher interest rates to get there?Some takes.
Money shaming time!!!In The Loop - Take 7Aman Raina - Sage Investors Money shaming time!!!!
Food inflation is everywhere. In the grocery stores and definitely in the restaurants, where the sticker shock is quite striking. The good and bad of it.
A look back at a horrible year in investing in 2022 and are we heading for an instant replay in 2023?
THE goto indicator for where economy is going and another indicator that isn't getting much chatter these days.
Some quick takes on China reopening and the ongoing tension between stock markets and central banks.
FedEx has been known to be a bellweather stock for the economy. If the economy is indeed slowing down then FedEx will be the first to show it. The stock has been taking a hit, so I thought this may be good time to take a look at it. In this episode I walk through my thought process that led me to buy shares in FedEx.
With summer in the rear-view mirror, the markets hustle and bustle resumed in September, not that this past summer was sedate as I was making a fair number of investment decisions. The roller coaster continued. More trade trash talking. Flip-flops on a daily basis, Threats to delist companies from stock exchanges. More and more in the Mad King world this is becoming the norm and so it has and will continue to become very difficult for investors to process the information flowing. It’s easy to hide, but we have to continue and stay true to our investing playbook. Despite the chaos, I continued to build positions and even added new ones. In this episode I share my thought processes that led to my decisions below:
Decisions Taken
Bought more shares in iShares Pharmaceuticals ETF (Ticker: XPH)
New Position: Bought shares in Shopify (Ticker: SHOP)
Sold partial position in Goldman Sachs (Ticker: GS) for 18.5% gain (Net Forex)
New Position: Bought shares in Fedex (Ticker: FEDX)
Sold position in iShares US Financials ETF (Ticker: XLF) for 10.1% gain (Net Forex)
Bought more shares in Square (Ticker: SQ)
Bought more shares in Amazon (Ticker: AMZN)
We’re half-way through the year and so I thought it would be a good time to check back into my ROBO portfolio to see how it’s doing and if there is anything interesting going on.
I was all good to go on writing a very pedestrian update as the portfolio had not undergone any significant changes in over a year. Then I got a couple of emails.
Under Armour shares had been taking a beating recently, so I decided to take a look and see if there may be a good entry point.
I really wasn’t looking at buying in to Amazon. I have been a bit of a critic of the company in the past, but a recent pull back in the stock combined with rumblings of regulatory oversight compelled me to take a look at the stock and weigh the possibility to buy in. Here is my mind map analysis that led me to my decision to buy shares.
What got me interested in Square was that it recently got beaten down on a “bad” earnings report, but when I took a bit of dive into it, I saw some interesting items.
They recently sold it’s online food delivery platform Caviar. It was a money loser and burning a lot of cash and to get $400 million back and getting rid of the cash burn meant to me that SQ would not be going cash flow positive.
Next, SQ is a pure North American play. Very little in the way sales outside, so any of the trade war rhetoric doesn’t really play into SQ’s wheelhouse. Finally, the new Cash App appears to be a big money maker, especially in the crypto space.
In this episode, I share my analysis of Square which you can check out below.
Google or Alphabet has been on my wish list for a long time, so when the stock started languishing in the low $1100’s, I thought I should take a look. There has been a lot of chatter of more regulatory oversight of the big tech companies including Alphabet. That being said the company is a juggernaut and is one of the most profitable companies on the planet. It is in fierce competition to control the ecosystem of many important industries so I couldn’t avoid an opportunity to pick it up at a bit of discount. In this episode I share my analysis that led me to open a position. Sure enough the day I bought it the earnings report came and the stock popped 10 percent!
One of ongoing challenges with my portfolio is I hold too much cash. A big reason is my ongoing pessimism on the valuation of stocks, so my risk tolerance has skewed to holding more cash. Given where I am in my life that’s not good. With the introduction of Asset Allocation based ETF’s, it’s now easier and cheaper to get a diversified equity exposure by holding a single ETF. I decided that I want put some of this cash into these types of ETF’s. I put together a video and podcast that walks through my analysis and thought process of evaluating a few ETF products.
The cornerstone of my investment coaching practice is to teach and engage with people on how to educated and ultimately successful investment decisions involving stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). It’s one thing to teach this stuff. It’s another thing to model the behavior and it’s a totally different thing to actually demonstrate tangible results.
There are tons of people out there who write and podcast some wonderful, thought provoking ideas about investing. They really know their stuff and often do more justice than I could ever do. I’m not a financial philosopher. I usually defer to their thinking. That’s the thing. There are a lot of people who write ABOUT investing, but I wonder at the back of my mind if they PRACTICE it just was well as they write about it? In this episode I share the results of my most recent and updated my list of my last 100 investment decisions I’ve taken and to see what were the outcome of those decisions and see if I can discover any interesting patterns or observations in my behaviours, both bad and good.
August arrived with a bang. The market barely had a chance to digest the recent lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and the subsequent strange messaging that this would be a one time deal. The market did not like that. To make this even more crazy, the Mad King decided to drop the bomb of threatening to put tarrifs on all China imports, only to see China counter with lowering the Yuan and triggering a trade/currency war. The market threw up on the possible scenarios. Then the Mad King walked back the threat. Essentially he blinked, leaving with US with no cohesive strategy. The Chinese are now fine to wait the whole thing out which is may put more pressure on stock prices…until…they started to walk it back and then the market got all happy again.
If that’s not enough the US 2yr-10yr yield curve inverted and all of a sudden the countdown to the impending recession was joined. The Dow Jones plunged 800 points, marking the 4th worst daily drop in history. In early August the Dow dropped the first 6 sessions.
Are you following this? What a time to be investing!
Stocks? Who wants stocks?
I started to go through my wish list to see if anything appealing. There were a lot of stocks on my wish list that started to look really good. A few items popped up and despite the roller coaster ride the markets were going through, I decided to dip my toe in a few names and I also decided to bank some profits in a few other names. In this episode I share my thought process that went into these decisions. DECISIONS TAKEN
New Position: Bought shares in Square Inc. (Ticker: SQ)
Bought more shares of Canadian Natural Resources (Ticker: CNQ)
Sold shares in iShares Gold Bullion ETF (Ticker: CGL.C)
Sold shares in Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (Ticker: VDC) for 19.5% gain (net Forex)
New Position: Bought Shares in Under Armour (Ticker: UAA)
After several uneventful months where I stood on the sidelines, I decided to make a fair number of decisions in July, even with all the trade-trash-talking going on. The big trigger for me I think was that it was becoming very clear that interest rates are going to track downward and that may put a floor on stock prices in the short to medium term. So I thought this would be a good time to build up some positions. I still think stock prices are overvalued and continue to have a short position, however we can’t fight the Fed. Maybe I decided to jump in because I haven’t done anything in the past few months and I was itching to put some more money to work? I’m not going to deny that emotions and a certain level of a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) could be at play here.
Decisions Taken
Added to position in iShares Long Term Bonds (Ticker: XLB)New Position: Bought shares in Vanguard Growth Asset Allocation ETF (Ticker: VGRO)
New Position: Bought shares in Alphabet (Ticker: GOOGL)
New Posiition: Bought shares in Amazon (Ticker: AMZN)
Bought more shares in iShares Pharmaceutical ETF (Ticker: XPH)
Bought more shares in JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs (Ticker: JPM and GS)
New Position: Bought shares in CVS Health (Ticker: CVS)
Bought more shares in iShares Germany ETF (Ticker: EWG)
Bought more shares in Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (Ticker: VEE)
In this first of a 3 part series, I share the thought processes that went into my investment decisions I made over the summer. In this episode I walk through the decisions I made in June.
Investment Decisions Taken:
Opened position in iShares Long Term Bonds (Ticker: XLB)
Sold position in Electronic Arts (Ticker: EA) for 11.6 percent gain (net Forex)
With the Federal Reserve signalling that they intend to lower interest rates in the very near future, I thought I would do a quick mind map and scratch what the impact would be on the types of investment decisions I would make going forward.
For the second month this year, the only investment decision I made was…to make no decisions. I decided to stand pat. In this post I share my thought process that led me to decide to stand pat.
Like anything there are some things that we don’t like to do but have to do in order to get to the bigger goals we want to achieve. Sports offers some interesting strategies for success that port over quite nicely into the investing game. In this episode I share some insights on how what strategies we can adopt to allow us to stay in the investing game and improve our probabilities for success.
This episode is about how the game of basketball and specifically the strategies behind it can teach us a lot about investing as well. I was originally going to do this around March Madness time, but never got around to it, so the timing is great! The game of basketball is so much different than when I grew up. It’s all about 3 points shots and perimeter offensive strategies. In many ways, the investing world has evolved quite similarly with the shift more index, low cost strategies.
April saw the markets continue to melt-up and regain their losses from 2018. In a couple of cases I was able to lock in some nice gains and pick up some shares in areas that have actually been lagging the market surge. What’s even more pleasant is that the stocks and ETF’s involved below are one’s that I’ve held in the past and I think there are some takeaways we can get from it.
Decisions Taken:
New Position: Bought shares in Cal Maine Foods (Ticker: CALM)
Bought more shares in iShares Pharma (Ticker: XPH)
Sold shares in Disney (Ticker: DIS) for 39 percent gain (net Forex)
Sold shares in Southern Copper Company (Ticker: SCCO) for 18.2 percent gain (net Forex)
In the last of my 5 part series where I dive into answering a fundamental question that factors into every investment decision we make, I look at the nebulous concept of valuation from a perspective that goes beyond simply buying stocks with some low valuation multiple or ratio. I also try to bring the various concepts discussed together to provide some kind of framework that we can takeaway and carry with us as we go forward and make investment decisions.
I continue on my deep dive into figuring out what drives stock prices by looking at the one metric the rules them all and factors into every investment decisions we make. There are numerous mechanical and technical methodologies and strategies that are available to us when evaluating investment opportunities. At the end of the day all that due diligence may go for naught when we bring in this important metric that drives stock prices.
For most people investing revolves around the application of rules. Buy stocks with P/E ratios below X and have Debt/Equity ratios below 0.5. Index investing is better than active strategies, which is better than value investing. The reality mechanical strategies work until they don’t. In the third of our five part series, I dig deep further to look beyond mechanical investing strategies and examine the importance of how tendencies, principles, and to a certain extent fate, play critical roles in the setting of stock prices and how we frame our investment decisions. I also look at how we react to what market does, can also be a critical factor to setting stock prices and what investing competencies we need to develop to manage these tendencies to make more successful investment decisions.
In Part 2, I start to drill down a bit further on trying to answer a fundamental questions that every investor is asking. In this episode I apply one of the core principles of market based economics. Supply and Demand. Makes sense as a stocks trade in a…market…that contains buyers and sellers. The way buyers and sellers behave plays a critical factor into how stock prices are set.
In this first of a five part series, I take a deep dive into trying to answer a fundamental question that works directly and indirectly into every investment decisions. What makes stock prices go up and down? What makes a stock valuable? In this episode, I start at a high level by exploring a core foundational element that we often overlook but plays a critical role in driving stock prices.
March came in like a lion for my portfolio. An angry lion. My portfolios took some body blows that I really didn’t see coming and it forced me to make some hard decisions. There were also some good outcomes as well as some stocks continue to benefit from the market reinvigoration thanks to the 180 pivot by the Federal Reserve to pause on future interest rate increases for the rest of the year.
Investment Decisions Taken:
Sold shares in CVS Health Inc. (Ticker: CVS) Bought more shares in Winpak Inc (Ticker: WPK) Bought more shares in Southwest Airlines (Ticker: LUV) Sold shares in Tiffany Inc (Ticker: TIF) Sold shares in Tyson Foods (Ticker: TSN)
After coming off the previous month where I made no decisions to buy or sell stocks and ETF’s in my portfolio, February couldn’t be more opposite. The trigger that got me to move was the louder chatter that the Federal Reserve was going to put the breaks on any future interest rate increases. To me this sudden 180 degree shift by the Federal Reserve was a game changer for the markets. In this episode, I walk through the investment decisions I made in February.
Investment Decisions Taken:
NEW POSITION: BOUGHT SHARES IN ISHARES GOLD BULLION ETF (TICKER: CGL.C)
NEW POSITION: BOUGHT SHARES IN VANGUARD EMERGING MARKETS ETF (TICKER: VEE)
NEW POSITION: BOUGHT SHARES IN SOUTHERN COPPER COMPANY (TICKER: SCCO)
NEW POSITION: BOUGHT SHARES IN CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES (TICKER: CNQ)
NEW POSITION: BOUGHT SHARES IN ISHARES PHARMACEUTICAL ETF (TICKER: XPH)
With commodity prices including copper falling, I thought it might be a good time to take a look at some copper stocks. Southern Copper was one I've owned in the past so I thought I'd check in and see if there may be an opportunity to buy in.
With commodity prices falling off and the Federal Reserve signalling they will pause on future interest rate hikes, the dynamics of a falling US$ and rising commodity prices including oil could be in play. I decided to do a quick analysis of CNQ which is considered among the big players in the Canadian Energy scene to see if there may be an opportunity to jump in.
Yes it been a full 4 years since I opened up my Robo Advisor account. For those new to investing, a Robo Advisor is a new wave of wealth management companies that invest on behalf of others using an online platform and a combination of algorithms and computer coding to buy and sell specific investments and manage portfolios. Four years ago these firms were just stepping into the investing conciousness, but since then they have mushroomed and even traditional investment companies are now offering some flavor of online investment management services. It all seemed quite appealing however there was one thing that many marketing materials, blogs, and mainstream media was avoiding (and still are I might add)…do these types of services make money for investors?
Since no robo advisor company back then was interested in disclosing their performance (they still avoid it) other than citing research that their strategy is superior, I decided four years ago to try an experiment and find out for myself. I setup an account with one of the big Robo Adviser firms. My goal was to go through the process and blog about my experience and more importantly, the results. I’ve always said that we need a good five years to really get a handle on how effective these services are compared to traditional wealth management services. Well, we’re at the 80% mark of my ROBO journey, so let’s check back in and take a look at how it’s doing now and see if we can squeeze any conclusions about the service.
The way 2018 ended in the markets with culminating in the Christmas Eve massacre followed by the post-Christmas bounce, it looked like 2019 would be more of the same. Turned out the market continued to bounce high and at one point erased most of the damage of last year. In this episode, I share the Investment “Decisions” that I made in January.
I always get questions from people about investing. In this episode I share a few questions and offer my takes:
Is stock picking more art than science?
How do you come up with different investment ideas?
What is the first metric you look at when you research a stock?
What are the tricks in investing in the stock market?
One of my motivations as an Investment Coach is to make people more street smart when dealing with the investing industry (banks, mutual funds, wealth management companies, brokers, robe-advisers etc). Even though more people today are investing on their own, the reality is you cannot invest in a bubble, and whether you go the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) path or work with someone, you will still have to work with the industry. You have to co-exist with them.
So loyally and faithfully we will march into our local branch (or lounges), or a financial adviser’s office, or a Starbucks and begin the dance. The thing is before you even make contact they have you sized up.
They think you’re an idiot and they are going to go out of their way to make you feel like one.
The industry has developed a rather air-tight formula for getting us to shell out our hard earned savings and the core component of their value proposition is to make us feel inadequate or give us a bad money image. In this episode I will share with you this formula and give an example of this ritual and more importantly how we can overcome these negative connotations they are projecting to us.
December brought more pain and angst in the markets. It forced me to make some tough decisions and take some losses, but it didn’t dissuade me from staying true to my investment ideology and my search for buying quality investments at a discounted price. In one case I had to do a 180 and retract my decision.
Decisions Taken:
New Position: Bought shares in Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap ETF (Ticker: VCN)
New Position: Bought shares in Goldman Sachs (Ticker: GS) and JP Morgan (Ticker: JPM)
New Position: Bought shares in Exon Mobil (Ticker: XOM)
New Position: Bought shares in Tiffany (Ticker: TIF)
Sold Shares in Johnson and Johnson (Ticker: JNJ) for 7.5 percent gain (Net Forex)
Bought more shares in Big Lots (Ticker: BIG)….and then sold it all
Sold shares in MGM Resorts for 21.1 percent loss (net forex)
Luxury retail stocks were taking a pounding along with the broader market. Stocks like Tiffany had been falling from the $140’s to the mid $80’s. Tiffany is a stock I’ve held in the past and had on my watch list to look at if it were ever to fall back. So with the tumble I did a quick analysis to see if there is an opportunity to jump in which I share in this episode.
Happy New Year indeed! It seems like many investors are more than happy to turn the page on a new year and fast!
So much for the Santa Clause rally. The markets continued to roll over as 2018 wound down. While it will definitely crimp some of my returns for the year. I actually viewed it as an opportunity to do some Christmas shopping. This is the type of shopping I like where the money I spend on high quality assets that will have a good chance of growing into more assets in the future. The core tenant of investing is to buy low and sell high. The times where you can buy low are unfortunately when the market is cratering. The later part of the yea is a usually quiet period for making decisions but this year some companies that I really never would considered in the past because they’ve been just too expensive looked very appetizing to pick up on the cheap. So I made a fair number of investment decisions in November and December. I bought small positions, because given the negative sentiment in the market, I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices fall further, which is fine because I’m happy to slowly build up these positions at a lower price point.
So in this first of two posts, I share with you my investment decisions from November 2018. In part 2 I will review my decisions in December 2018.
Decisions Taken:
Sold shares in Starbucks (Ticker: SBUX) for gain of 29.6%, net FX) Bought more shares in Activision Blizzard (Ticker: ATVI) Sold shares in Activision Blizzard (Ticker: ATVI) for 25% Loss – Net FOREX Bought more shares in Electronic Arts (Ticker: EA) Sold shares in Walmart (Ticker: WMT) For 20% gain (net FOREX) Bought more shares in iShares Germany ETF (Ticker: EWG)
Throughout the year I’ve shared with you the investment decisions I’ve made. It’s important to me that as someone that teaches people how to make better investment decisions, that I model the concepts and principles I teach. Well it’s that time of the year where in this episode I walk it back and see what I did right and more importantly what I did wrong…and what if anything did I learn from the experiences of the past year that will help me become a better investor?
One of the most under performing asset classes so far this year has been German equities. As of this writing, German stocks were down over 20 percent year-to-date. Everyone complains about the weakness in the Dow Jones indexes, but the German markets have been in a serious downfall. This despite some of the most well-known and dominant global companies like Daimler Benz and Seimens. The German economy is the enginge of Europe and the opportunity to get exposure to that market at a 20 percent discount was appealing to me. I decided the best way to get the exposure was to passively own a basket of German stocks and that led me to evaluate some German equity ETF’s. In this podcast episode, I walk through my analysis of several German equity ETF’s.
There was a fair bit of hand wringing going into October, a month where there have been historically some iconic stock market meltdowns. The market was starting to show some signs of fatigue. At one point the S&P 500 index crossed below its 200 day moving average which hasn’t happened in literally years. Interest rates keep tracking up. The Mad King continued to elevate the trade trash talking and investors were getting nervous and stock prices in the early part were trending downward, but nothing crazy that motivated me to look into buying. Sue enough on October 23, the market had a fit. Suddenly words like “crisis” and “turmoil” were being thrown around, when historically they weren’t even scratches. It’s times like this where having my investing playbook is critical as it gives me an anchor to check in and review my investing ideology and how should be executing. It makes me review my Wish List to see if there are any stocks I’ve liked are now more affordable. The last thing I should be doing is panicking and reacting. It’s these stress points where we need to be put all the upfront hard work and making thought-out decisions.
In this episode I walk through the various decisions I made during the month. With quite a few stocks that I owned had fallen in value enough that I thought it was worth jumping in and buying some more shares to lower my average cost down. There were also a couple of stocks/ETF’s that I had on wish list that had become a lot cheaper and thought it would be good to start building a position.
With Emerging Market stocks taking a hit, I thought it would be a good time to explore building up a position in the sector. In the episode I evaluate several ETF's to determine which would be an appropriate one to add to my portfolio.
It’s a golden age for investors. Never at any point in history has it been this cheap to get into investing. Management fees and trading commissions have been falling over the past 20 years, thanks mostly to technology which have improved speed and efficiencies of transactions. In the last year or so, the competition over lower fees has been quite intense with ETF companies like Vanguard and Blackrock going back and forth lowering fees to almost zero. This has trickled down into traditional investment products like mutual funds which have lowered their fees, albeit less aggressively. Well the race to the bottom in fees has reached a new level.
Free. As in nothing. Nada. Rien.
It’s a great time to be an investor. Eliminating a focus on fees can allow more due diligence on the investment itself, however I’ve been wondering if these products and service offerings are really free and is free in the grand scheme of things a good thing for investors? In this episode I dive into the the illusion of free that the investment industry has been pushing on us.
Amazon has been one of the “It” stocks for the last decade. It has had an epic run. If we were to look at Amazon from a 1st level thinking perspective, the conventional thinking behind buying Amazon is that they are disrupting retail. Any space Amazon enters, be it grocery, streaming, pharmaceutical drugs, diapers is met with fear and doom by the existing players. 1st level thinking would tell us that in the future we will shop at Amazon only. I would consider Amazon to be a Fear of Missing Out or FOMO stock. Many have missed the moves up and feel compelled to jump aboard so they won’t miss out. In this episode I try to take a look at Amazon from a 2nd level thinking perspective.
I’ve owned Las Vegas Sands in the past and it has been good to me. I’ve also sold it prematurely because of some questionable financial reporting treatments that didn’t sit sell with me. With the stock down near 14 percent this year and at a 52-week low, I thought it may be worth revisiting it to see if anything with the company has changed. As from my position in MGM, many of the fundamentals with LVS are quite similar. The question is how are they performing. In this episode I apply my 8 Questions framework and see if indeed an opportunity is at hand. This decision was also a very difficult one because there is also some politics at play here.
With summer done, I was thinking I may be due to make a few investment decisions, but it was quiet month with one selling decision which I wasn’t counting on making anytime soon along with one decision to buy more shares and one new stock I added to my portfolios. At the same time, I was faced with a decision that challenged some of my personal values and given the times we’re in, I don’t think I’m the only one that may be facing similar decisions. In this episode I walk through my most recent investment decisions from September.
Investment Decisions Made:
Bought more shares in Tyson Foods (Ticker: TSN) Sold shares in JD.com (Ticker: JD) for 28.5 percent loss (Net Forex) Bought more shares in MGM Resorts (Ticker: MGM) New Position: Bought shares in Las Vegas Sands (Ticker: LVS)
In Part 1, I shared some thoughts on a recent report by the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) outlining the challenges the financial services industry is having in getting Millennials to invest. The OSC report had a great opportunity to address those investing pain points, but like so many financial literacy initiatives, the messaging is not clear, consistent, and understandable. The report identifies solutions, yet they are separate and not integrated and use a lot of industry jargon that people just won’t connect with. They emphasize processes over results. What is the outcome we want Millennials to achieve with investing?
Another way?
In this episode, I’d like to share from my experience as Investment Coach and as someone who works with people to develop their investing competencies, some ideas that I found have better motivated people and not just Millenials into become more engaged with investing. They address the pain points people have with expressed about investing which include; being scared of investing, feeling overwhelmed by the process, feeling paralyzed when trying to make a decision, and not knowing how to start and take that first step. These are my takes and perspectives. They are by no means the most definitive and all encompassing.
My motivation in starting my own practice to teach and engage people on investing revolved around financial literacy. I thought that if I could improve someone’s financial literacy, they will have a better chance at becoming a successful investor. I was always a big supporter of financial literacy programs, especially in schools. It made sense and I thought it was the right thing to do.
The reality is over the years I’ve learned and witnessed first-hand that while noble and done with good intentions, financial literacy programs just don’t work. A revolving door of programs, a lot of them government and industry sponsored have been rolled out over the years, starting out with enthusiasm and then just petering away in obscurity. Here in Canada, we even have a Financial Literacy Commissioner that acts and cheers Canadians into becoming more financially literate, but to no avail. So much effort, again all with good intentions, has been put into improving financial literacy but it just doesn’t seem to stick.
So queue the latest attempt at cracking the financial literacy daVinci Code. A 42-page report commissioned by the Ontario Securities Commission and prepared by a dream team of consultants and personal finance thought leaders. The report attempts to answer why people, specifically Millennials are not investing and what financial institutions can do to get them to invest. In this first of a two part series, I walk through the report and highlight some of the good points as well why the industry continues to make the same mistakes when it comes to engaging people about investing. In Part 2, I offer some some solutions that I have developed from my own practice and from my own experience helping people make more successful investment decisions.
I continue on with my analysis of video game stocks with a quick dive into Take Two Interactive. They are known for their Grand Theft Auto franchise.
Continuing on in my analysis of video game companies is my review of Electronic Arts. EA is more known for its sports games such as Madden Football and FIFA Soccer. It seems like a natural fit for EA to leverage their sports expertise into the E-Sports domain. In this episode I do a quick mind map analysis to see if EA is worthy of adding to my portfolios.
We’re half-way through the year and so I thought it would be a good time to check back into my ROBO portfolio to see how it’s doing and if there is anything interesting going on. Three and half years ago I decided to try an experiment and find out for myself. I setup an account with one of the big Robo Adviser firms and invested $5000 of my own money into it. My goal was to go through the process and blog about my experience and more importantly, the results. I said that we need a good five years to really get a handle on how effective these services are compared to traditional wealth management services. Well, we're coming upon the 4th anniversary of my ROBO account, so in this episode I take a look at how it’s doing at the mid-year mark.
The cornerstone of my investment coaching practice is to teach and engage with people on how to educated and ultimately successful investment decisions involving stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). It’s one thing to teach this stuff. It’s another thing to model the behavior and it’s a totally different thing to actually demonstrate tangible results. Several years ago I decided to dig up my past trading records and to identify the most recent 100 investment decisions I made and to see how faired. In this episode I review my most recent results for my last 100 investment decisions.
You can't go one direction in the stock market these days without hearing something about Tesla. It has become the classic retail stock. Their CEO has said a few things recently that have had the markets in a tizzy. I've never really looked at Tesla stock because just eyeballing it, it looked overpriced. Well I thought with all the hysteria going on that maybe this is a good time to dive in and have a look at the company. This is my mind map video on my quick analysis of Tesla to see if it may be worth picking up.
Just because it's summer doesn't mean you lift your foot off the investing pedal. I ended up making several moves in June as some of my positions had crossed my return threshold and I had to make some decision on whether to hold on or sell and bank the profit. I also made a decision to add another stock to my portfolio as well as remove a hedging position.
Decisions Taken: Bought more shares in Big Lots (BIG) Bought more shares in Southwest Airlines (LUV) Sold shares in Williams Sonoma (WSM) Sold shares in Baidu (BIDU) Sold shares in Gold ETF (CGL) New Addition: Bought shares in Starbucks (SBUX)
Starbucks stock was getting crushed the last few months. Weak forecasts, some not so great PR events started taking the stock down. It got me interested to see if it may be worth picking up as it seems to be out of favour by Wall Street. Here's my mind map video that walks through my though process that led me to buy shares in Starbucks.
Fitting into my theme of investing in companies that can own the OS, JD.com is positioning itself to become a real player in online retailing. It has been one of the big players in the China market and it is looking to branch out to other parts of Asia. It is very aligned with other players like Tencent and Walmart and aggressively building out its retail ecosystem channels. The stock has been falling and some say the US trade tariff sabre rattling has put pressure on China stocks. In this episode I share my mind map exercise that I used to evaluate and ultimately led to my decision to buy into JD.com.
UPDATE #1: Since I made the decision, some significant news has come out. It was announced that Alphabet had made a $550 milliondollar investment in JD. I think its a big deal in that it validates JD's value proposition. JD has now entered partnerships with Alphabet, TenCent, and Walmart. These are companies that are aggressively trying to build out online ecosystems to own the OS for distribution in retail. Whoever can control that online platform has a good chance at building durable competitive advantage. Whatever happens, JD has connections with all the main players. The Alphabet connection also signals that both parties are looking to take on Amazon.
Update #2: Since the Alphabet announcement, more events have occurred, specifically from the Mad King himself, who pondering restricting Chinese companies from investing in American technology companies. I wonder now if the JD/Alphabet partnership is now in doubt given the Eye of Sauron is now looking upon China quite aggressively. I cite the potential of a tariff tit-for-tat as serious risk factor that could negatively impact JD.com and other China stocks.
MGM has not been on my watchlist and I really wasn't thinking about getting into casino stocks but with a recent Supreme Court decision that essentially legalized sports gambling in the US I thought was a game changer movement that could really put gaming companies in a strong position to move. I did a quick scan and MGM appeared to be not the most producing gaming company but what drew me was management's foresight to build out sports betting platforms and services in the anticipation of the legalization of sports betting. Here's my quick deep dive that lead me to the decision to buy some MGM stock.
I've had Johnson and Johnson on my watch list for a long time. I've held it in the past and I got a pretty good return on it. After I sold when it was in the $70's the stock kept on moving and literally doubled. I thought I may never get back in but the stock since the start of the year has been falling and it went down into the mid $120's when I thought it would be good to take a look again. In this episode I do a quick dive into JNJ to see if it is still worthy to include in my portfolio.
April was calmer in terms of investment decisions compared to the past few months. With markets zigging and zagging at a much more frequent rate now, opportunities to buy some stocks and ETF’s have presented themselves. At the same time there have been some opportunities to bank some healthy profits. That’s the way markets go. Opportunities don’t set a time to arrive. They show up when they want to. That is why it is always it’s critical to have an investing playbook that reflects your investing ideology so when those moments arrive, you are not just staring at your toes wondering what to do. In April a couple of opportunities came up that I really didn’t have specifically on my Wish List, but they fit into some of core investing ideology in terms of exposure to sectors I would like to be invested in. In this episode I walk through investment decisions I made in April.
As an Investment Coach, I spend a good amount of time working with people who are new to investing. Often one of the first questions I get from someone who is new to investing is "I want to learn how to invest are often in the form of: What stocks should I buy?" or "I have $10,000 I would like to invest. What stocks should I buy for the next 10 years?" I've been asking myself lately, why people believe that default position for investing must involve buying and selling stocks? The reality is buying and selling Facebook or bank stocks should not be your first thought when it comes to investing. In this episode, I try to figure out why people have this mindset and how it can have a devastating impact on your investing experience.
This is the third and last in a series of episodes where I walk through my investment decisions I made in March. In this episode, I share my thought process that lead me to buy shares in Southwest Airlines.
In Part 2 of my Investment Decisions series podcasts for March, I walk through the thought process that led me to my decision to buy some shares in Big Lots.
After the mini-meltdown in early February, stock prices boomeranged and made back a good chunk of their losses. In some cases the bounce was pretty big and it forced me to make a few decisions. There were a few days where the market tanked pretty big and I used them as opportunities to open some new positions. Like the previous month, I've decided to break down my decisions into 3 parts. In this post episode, I will review my decisions to buy more shares and sell some shares. The other two episodes will focus on my decisions to buy shares in Southwest Airlines and Big Lots.
RANT ALERT: Another annual Real Estate Wealth Expo has made its way through my home town. This year some serious star power was on display. Baseball players, Pop Musicians, and Dragons were regaling attendees and their slightly open wallets with tales of how to escape the rat race and live the 6-49 lifestyle. People leaving these events usually seem to feel they are on their way to financial independence or at the very least got a good cardio workout. Unfortunately the whole thing is a scam. My rant is not about the concept as Real Estate Expos like this are just the latest iteration of get-rich-schemes that prey upon the gullible. What got me concerned was the response by people, especially on social media.
I've referred often to the stock market as the Teflon Stock Market because it seems that any small or major socio-political-economic event that gets occurs is casually brushed off by investors. Nothing seems to stick to this market. The day the Mad King got elected the market went down 1500 points but after digesting it, it went on to set record high's on an almost daily basis. I also think about how much technology has changed investing landscape and wonder if these elements are creating a situation where bear market cycles are getting shorter and shorter. Have we reached a point where we can say that we will have very little in the way of stock market "crash"? I offer some takes in this episode and try to dive in a bit on this concept.
In this final instalment of my Investment Decision series podcasts, I shares my thought process that went into buying shares of Priceline (now called Booking Holdings) during the February mini-meltdown. When the market was going haywire in early February, I was watching to see if any stocks that I had on my wish list, were suddenly attractively priced. Priceline was a stock I've had on my wishlist for long while but I had never been willing to pull the trigger and get into it. During the mini-meltdown, the stock had made a big move downward, so I reviewed my notes to see if the fundamentals of the business were still intact. As always, for every stock that I am evaluating I utilize my 8 question framework.
In this third instalment of my Investment Decision series podcasts, I shares my thought process that went into buying shares of Baidu during the February mini-meltdown. When the market was going haywire in early February, I was watching to see if any stocks that I had on my wish list, were suddenly attractively priced. Baidu had made a big move downward, so I reviewed my notes to see if the fundamentals of the business were still intact. As always, for every stock that I am evaluating I utilize my 8 question framework.
In part 1, I shared my investment decisions to buy more shares in stocks I already owned as well as my decision to sell a portion of my short position on the S&P 500 index. During February I also took advantage of the pullback in share prices to add a few new stocks to my portfolio as I felt they had now become attractively priced. I will share my evaluations for each stock, all of which involve answering the 8 questions, I ask each time I am analyzing a stock. My first new stock that I added was Walmart.
As we finished January it looked like the stock market could do no wrong. Investors were all-in on stocks. Investor sentiment was downright giddy. Cash positions were at generational lows. Everything was awesome.
Then February arrived.
The first few weeks were dramatic. There were days when the Dow Jones Industrials were down 1500 points. 500-800 intraday swings were almost becoming normal after literally a year where there was nary a price change greater or less than 2 percent. There are so many reasons being cited. At the end it was a stressful month for investors.
For me it was shopping time. I was looking to buy back into some broad market ETF’s but the price falls were not deep enough to justify. So I’m happy to wait. As bad as watching the markets go down 1000 points, the reality is it only represented a 2-4 percent drop. Put this into context, on Black Monday in 1987, the Dow Jones Industrials went down over 20 percent. THAT is a crash. What happened in February was a flesh wound…if that. Context. I had my list of stocks and it was just a matter of jumping on the one’s that were taking a big time beating. A few did pop up and I jumped in.
I made quite a few moves and so I decided to break them down into a series of podcasts. In Part 1, I’ll share the decisions involving buying more shares of stocks and ETF’s I already own as well as selling. In Parts 2, 3, and 4 I will share my thought processes that went into buying some new stocks.
In the second part of my review of Morgan Housel's terrific presentation at the MicroCap Leadership Summit, I share his takeaways on the remaining two historical cases he cites that can teach us a lot about investing. In this part of his presentation he talks about State of the Union speeches and the Wright Brothers. Some really insightful perspectives.
I have to be honest, I'm getting a bit of bro love for this Morgan Housel of the Collaborative Funds. He just keeps hitting his blog posts out of the park. I may be projecting a bit of Confirmation Bias here and I'm fine with it because go to the heart of what I do as an investment coach. I've referred to his posts many times here and I recommend you check out his blog. A lot of times, we can learn more about something when we view them from a totally different perspective. Housel demonstrates this in an excellent presentation he delivered at the MicroCap Leadership Summit where he examined 5 seminal events in history and parsed out some takeaway learning points that can be applied to the investing realm. It's a fantastic presentation full of learnings and I wanted to share them with you. It turned out there was so much insights to gain, that I had to break the podcast down into two separate episodes. In Part 1, I offer some takes on his cases involving nuclear power plants in Austria, the war on cancer, and 9/11.
Three years ago I decided to try an experiment. I setup an account with one of the big Robo Adviser firms and invested $5000 of my own money into it. My goal was to go through the process and blog about my experience and more importantly, try to find if using this type of service can generate better returns than if I did it myself or used a traditional adviser. I said that we need a good five years to really get a handle on how effective these services are compared to traditional wealth management services. Well, we’ve now crossed the 3-year anniversary of my ROBO account, so let’s take a look at how it’s doing now.
We start a new year with hope that the investment decisions we make will lead to positive outcomes, hopefully this year, but if not then at some point in the future. The year has started off with a bang as the markets around the world have surged and continue to set records. In this episode, I share the thought processes I was using that lead to my investment decisions this past month.
DECISIONS TAKEN: Added to position in Nutrien (Ticker: NTR) Added to position in Imperial Oil (Ticker: IMO) Added to position in Spider US Financials ETF (Ticker: XLF) Sold shares in Nike (Ticker: NKE) for a 22.5% gain (factoring in currencies)
While my core investing ideology revolves around buying quality businesses, I also try to structure my portfolios to have exposure to certain business themes that are evolving in business. In the past, I've developed themes in the areas of water stocks, luxury/discount retail stocks, and even investing in a world of Trump. We live in a time where having the most market share does not necessarily translate into being the leader in the market. Market share is nice but if you can control the distribution channel in how products are accessed by customers, you can build a durable competitive advantage, which is something Warren Buffet loves. If you wanted to sell a product, you would need to go through the gatekeeper who would charge you a fee to get into their operating system (OS) or ecosystem. Traditionally that would have been a department store or some kind of physical retail store in a mall. This is changing. The distribution channel in the 21st century has become online. The Internet.
Whoever can offer a compelling online platform/ecosystem/operating system will have a durable competitive advantage as consumers will stick to and out of convenience be loyal to an operating system. Consequently, the stock market will put a premium on those companies that own the OS for a specific sector or industry.
In this podcast, I set out to try to figure out who the next great stocks are or could potentially be the companies that will own the OS for the Pillars of Companies I often refer to when I try to figure out what stocks to buy.
Over the last 20 years the biggest disruptor in investing has been technology. Technology has enabled more people to access investing services in variety of ways from executing trades, to accessing investment research, to tracking the status of their investments in real-time. It has also lowered the costs of investing. At the same time technology has also enabled some bad investing behaviour. In this episode, I offer some hot takes on how a new service by one of the leading online brokers could potentially enable investors to engage in behaviour that could negatively impact their portfolios.
One of the values I feel strongly about as an investment coach is that I practice what I teach…and be transparent about it…good AND bad. It’s one thing for me to coach people how to make better decisions and develop and teach courses on how to buy and sell stocks and ETF’s. It’s another thing to model the behaviour. Throughout the year I’ve shared and tweeted (#trade2017) with you the investment decisions I’ve made throughout the year. Well it’s that time of the year where we set scroll down the page and see what I what I did right AND more importantly what I did wrong (and believe me I did some stuff I'm not happy about)…and did I gain any insights that will help me become a better investor?
I came across this wonderful blog post by Morgan Housel of the Collaborative Fund where he shares his take on the 4 most important fundamental investing skills. It's a fantastic article (I've read 5 times already and I'll probably read it another 20!) in that it really reinforces a lot of the principles and ideas I've tried to develop in people who are getting into investing. In this episode, I review his article and offer some additional takes and perspectives.
I thought I would be done speaking to this passive investing (sorry I mean low-cost investing) versus active investing debate for while, but it just keeps pulling me back in!
After my recent episode where I tried to bring a bit of a reality check into the whole passive/low-cost investing, another revelation has been presented to us. This time by none other than Vanguard, one of the pioneers of low-cost index investing. Recently the company said that they would be releasing a new line of actively managed ETF's.
Wait...what! The company of John Bogle who has been firm, consistent crusader for index investing is now changing teams and going to the Dark Side?
If this is really going down then Bogle will join other passive-investing ambassadors such as Burt Malkiel and Rick Ferri, who have pounded the table (and sold a few books) about the virtues of low-cost index investing and now seem to be OK with the concept of picking stocks.
In this episode, I offer my takes into the latest passive investing flip-flop.
When I started my consulting business, my main work centred around doing investment analysis on Canadian stocks and companies. My main motivation at the time was that it was very hard to find credible, independent, and unbiased financial analysis. Back in the mid 90's, the investment industry was rife with conflicts of interest. Investment reports was more of marketing copy for investment banks to promote their IPO's. Sell recommendations were few and far between. It's been almost 20 years since that insanity. Some regulations were introduced after the Dot Com, Nortel, and Enron meltdowns. Has anything changed? Is investment research better now? In this episode I share some recent stats that appear to show that investment analysts continue to shoot blanks.
Passive investing has been the rage as more and more money has shifted away from traditional actively managed portfolios to portfolios that track broad based indexes. There's enough evidence that it can be an effective strategy, but is a passive strategy really that passive? When you look underneath the hood of ETF's or index funds, there is really not much that's truly passive about them. A lot of it has to do with the indexes that the ETF's are tracking and benchmarking to. It has changed how I look at passive oriented products and I will refer to them in the future. In this episode (iTunes), I'll take a deeper dive and try to give the straight, honest sh$t about passive ETF's and index funds.
Continuing off from the last episode, I share my thought process and rationale that went into my decisions to buy shares in Winpak and Nordstrom. As always, I incorporate my 8 questions framework that I teach in my Everyday Investing program.
October was pretty active month for investment decisions, especially as the market continues to surge and set records on an almost daily basis. Because of this I had to break up this post into a couple of smaller posts. In this first of a 2-part series, I share my thought process that I was going through with several investment decisions that involved buying more stock as well as a decision where I decided at first to hold my position but eventually I decided to sell and incurring a loss.
The essence of my coaching practice is to teach people to make more successful investment decisions. Investing is about making decisions. Should I buy, sell, or hold a stock or ETF? At face value, successful investment decisions are a product of improved education of the mechanics of investing as well as continuous engagement. This is great however it does not on its own lead to making consistent successful investment decisions. There is another level of thinking that needs to go into the process and the great investors incorporate this level of thinking into their investment decisions. In this episode, Aman shares some insights into what is called Second Order decision making, which can when practiced consistently and implemented within an investment playbook can improve the probability of making successful investment decisions.
This episode is a total going down memory lane thing. 99 episodes ago, I dared myself to prop up my phone, open up Periscope and put myself out there for the world to see me um and ah'ing my way to babbling about investing. I thought I had maybe 3 clips of 3 minutes before I would run out of things to say. Somehow though, I was able to do it for a year before a colleague suggested that I try podcasting which from what I knew was a pretty labour intensive project, however it turned out the mechanics were much easier than I thought and the practice of doing Periscope videos gave me both a library of content as well some confidence. The next thing you know, I'm knocking on my 100th episode of Stock Talk. I honestly cannot believe and I honestly cannot believe the response since I switched over to podcasting from Periscope. It's been quite astonishing. So as I knock on the door to episode 100, I decided to look back on some of my favourite episodes and also some of yours based on your feedback. Thanks to all for your support. More to come!
It appears that central banks around the world are either engaging or leaning towards increasing interest rates. At a first level thinking, rising interest rates spell trouble for stocks in the short to medium term, however as we've been living in a prolonged era of excessively low interest rates, an increase interest rates is actually a welcome event in the long term. In this episode I share my thoughts on why higher interest rates are a welcome tonic for free market economies.
Since the financial crisis of 2007-08, there has been a big proliferation of dividend oriented investing strategies. There is vast inventory of material that has been shared by many that have benefited from adopting an investing ideology of investing in stocks that pay dividends. The two main drivers for the popularity of dividend investing has been uber low interest rates that has forced investors to seek riskier investment opportunities and secondly, just a basic fear to protect what's left of their savings. This is all well and good and I always say that there is no single investment strategy that rules them all, however what concerns me is that simply adopting a strategy of investing in dividend paying stocks can give people a false sense of security. In this episode Aman gives us a crash course on what dividends are all about and while they are a welcome source of extra income for investors, they can still expose investors to risks.
For some reason, we tend to gravitate to making decisions that are complex rather than going for a more simple elegant solution. We find the rational and thought process that incorporate words we've never heard of, lengthy math formulas, and fancy charts to be the validation that we need in order to take our investments to the next level. In the investment industry this is quite evident in the types of portfolios that financial professionals design for their clients. The reality is a simple portfolio of low cost baskets of assets are suitable enough for most investors, but for some reason, we never see these type of portfolios created. Why is this? Well Alan Roth penned a piece trying to figure out why the investment industry struggles to keep portfolios simple. In this episode I speak to this and offer some takes.
It's decision day again!. In this episode Aman shares his thought process on two recent investment decisions he made. One involved buying more shares in Disney and the other his decision to buy shares in Nike. Aman shows he uses the 8 questions everytime he evaluates a stock to determine if it's worth buying.
Investing thanks to computer processing power has allowed us to filter, slice, and dice ridiculous amounts of information to give us insights into the behaviours and financial performance of stocks. It is driving more and more of our decision making and I feel that at the expense of more qualitative elements that are just as important in the decision making process. People who work in the investment industry are so dependent on the numbers that they have lost context and perspective and more importantly a respect for the value of money. This is attributable to the culture of Wall Street and Bay Street. In this episode, I provide some examples of how easy it is drown in numbers to the point that we lose context and meaning in those numbers and how as individual investors, having an awareness of this perspective can be an enormous asset and advantage in making successful investment decisions.
The cornerstone of my investment coaching practice is to teach and mentor people to make better investment decisions as it pertains to the buying and selling of individual stocks and ETF's. It’s one thing to teach this stuff. It’s another thing to model the behavior and it’s a totally different thing to actually demonstrate tangible results. In this episode I reviews my updated Last 100 list and shares my insights on my investment experience and pedigree.
One of the things that intimidates people about investing is the endless formulas and ratios..the mathi'ness of it all. The image of someone sitting there pouring over spreadsheets can give people hives. I came across a pretty good article recently that outlined 7 steps to quickly analyzing a stock. I noticed that all 7 steps involved some element of math, which again to most people would be a turn off. It's fine but there are other elements that go into evaluating stocks and ETF's that are not math related can be just as effective in framing successful investment decisions. In this episode Aman tries to give some comfort and hope to those who have angst about investing. There really is more to investing than math.
I'll be honest, I really had no intention about offering any takes on the cryptocurrency mania but I get asked ALL THE TIME about whether it's worth investing in Bitcoin or any of the other cryptocurrencies that are exploding on the scene. To me investing Bitcoin is no different than investing in any other traditional paper currency....which is highly risky. At the same time, I really haven't had much of a grasp of how Bitcoin operates and what makes it so appealing. So in this podcast, Aman takes a pretty deep dive to figure out how Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. work. So if you are in the same boat, then check out this podcast and let's learn together! NOTE: This episode was recorded prior to a couple of developments that have cast a bit of a cloud on Bitcoin, specifically China's decision to ban Bitcoin Exchanges as well as JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon's take that Bitcoin is a fraud, comparing it to the Tulip Mania.
In the last few months we've seen some business activities and transactions that I think will have major reverberations on how we do business and ultimately the types of investment opportunities that will emerge from them. In this episode Aman offers some hot takes on the Amazon/Whole Foods merger, the Alphabet (Google) partnership with Walmart, and finally the decision by Disney to part ways with Netflix and start distributing its content directly to customers. These three strategic moves are truly game changer moments in business.
With the Canadian dollar increasing in value by just over 10 percent recently, I decided to do a little cross boarder shopping in July and increase some of my US stock holdings. At the same time, I used the stronger Loonie to add some new stocks to my portfolios.
With Mad King from North Korea and the Mad King from the USA trash talking using their nuclear weapons on each other, Aman tries to map out what that could look like and how it could potentially impact stock prices around the world. Suffice to say, it won't be good in the short term. What's more concerning is the impact it will have on how commerce is done around the world. As much as the rhetoric has been quite hot, these 2 "leaders" have a track record for talking a good game.
As stock markets around the world set record high's on an almost daily basis and despite all political chaos and maybe surrounding it, I keep wondering, and asking myself how sustainable this is? This just can't continue on like this. Something deep down is telling me this epic run will somehow end...but how? What is it that will take this whole house of cards down? In this episode Aman tries to brainstorm some possible scenarios that could be the trigger to pulling the stock market down.
The active investing versus passive investing debate continues and it will likely continue forever. An interesting wrinkle though in the debate has popped up and it involves literally the patriarch of index investing changing teams. In this episode Aman dives into this stunning change of heart. At first Aman was ready to go into full "gotcha" on this, however this case highlights an important quality that investors needs to build up in their tool box. Excuse the coughs!
At the core of my personal investing ideology is the concept of having entry and exit points for when a stock or ETF reaches a certain return level. In this episode I share some of my recent investment decisions many of which came to down to whether to hold or sell a few positions in my portfolios as they had crossed my personal return threshold.
In episode 69, I reported some interesting changes that occurred on my Robo Advisor portfolio that I setup a few years ago. At the time, I thought that the changes could have been temporary as part of stepping stone. In this episode, I check in on my Robo portfolio at the mid-year mark to see if those changes have remained.
RANT ALERT! In episode 66, I went on a bit of a rant after a blogger said I was asking the wrong investing question in that performance shouldn't play a factor in investing. A common feeling people who start investing experience is intimidation, especially from the financial services industry. They feel like they are being talked down and become hesitant to learn more and ask questions. This plays into to investment industry's hands. To give you another example, in this episode, I share with you a question person asked about robo advisors, and the response that was provided by someone who works in the financial services industry. The response made me really angry but at the same time didn't surprise me as it was a typical response I would expect.
A right of passage for anyone studying investing and finance in university is to face the beat down of learning one of core investing theories which is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It is a particularly dry topic which I recall on several occasions made me almost fall asleep in class. In school they basically ram the EMH into your brain and I really wasn't in any place to know if it was a good thing. You just accept it and move on. Over time though, I grew more suspect of this model especially after seeing people like Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch basically thumb their nose at it and had a bank account to prove it. Over time also I've become a proponent of behavioural finance theories having a greater impact in how we make investing decisions. Another variant of the EMH has emerged, called the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, which integrates a behavioural component to the discussion. In this episode I examine both Hypothesis and offer my takes on the pro's and cons of each.
The move by Amazon to buy Whole Foods is a game changer deal on so many levels. In this Amazon, Aman offers his takes on the deal and how it can shake up the entire retail sector along with how he is framing his investment decisions in his own portfolios going forward.
A lot of times in investing, opportunities and times for action don’t happen on schedule. They just happen and you have to be ready to execute. That is the great benefit of having an investment ideology and The List of companies you’ve done your homework on and are ready to buy if the price is attractive enough and the fundamentals of the business haven’t changed from when you were evaluating the company. In this episode Aman reviews his recent investment decisions.
It's interesting to note that as stock markets in the US set record high's on a daily basis that when you dig deeper, most of the gains in the market are being driven by a handful of stocks. This episode of Stock Talk skews heavily into some academic research side and I use the term "skew" purposely as some old research has re-emerged and has shed some light on another factor that makes it hard to outperform the overall stock market.
Since I started doing Stock Talk in podcast and video forms, I've noticed something. It appears the most popular episodes are the one's where I've shared responses that I've offered to people that have sent me questions or responses that I've given in personal finance and investing groups. The great thing is these questions are not really that personal and I feel many, many people can benefit and learn from. It appears you feel the same way! So I plan to do more of these type of podcasts in the future. Here's my latest edition where I answer questions ranging from "What is an SEC 10-K Report?" to "What are the fundamental skills for investing in stocks?" to finally "How does investing in stocks work?". These are amazing, elegant, and powerful questions form a important foundation for investing.
Our journey to achieving important financial goals like retirement or buying a house have traditionally been long treks. In recent years we've been seeing more people who aren't interesting running that marathon but would prefer to sprint to the finish line and achieve FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) or other personal finance goals like paying off their mortgage in 5 years, or engaging in multi-year spending moratoriums. These types of extreme personal finance behaviours make great copy and get a lot of clicks and attention. They also create emotional feelings no different than someone who feels inadequate or has a bad body image because of images the media projects on us what norms we should be aspiring to do. In this episode, Aman offers some takes on this type of personal finance "porn" can while inspiring, can give most people a feeling of bad "personal finance image".
Another edition where I share my thought processes that went into my most recent investment decisions. It's one thing for me to teach people how to invest. It's another to model the behaviour. In this episode Aman shares his thought process that went into his decision to buy an ETF and his decision to sell a stock.
The financial services industry has been taking a hit lately. With admissions by former staff of pressures by management to meet aggressive sales targets, up-sell customers, and create accounts without customer consent, it hasn't been good run even though they continue to crank out massive profits. The reality is despite these transgressions, banks are not going away. Financial advisers or advisors are not going away. As investors we will need to co-exist with them. In this episode, Aman walks through some strategies that we can take to become more street smart when dealing financial advisers of all stripes and get the outcomes we need to help us meet our financial goals.
There's been a lot of angst and worry and hysteria thanks to the newly elected Mad King and his minions. You won't find any of that on Wall Street these days. Every is awesome! Aman shares some of the current psychology that is pervading the trading floors and counters of Wall Street.
Since I've been posting the podcast version of Stock Talk, I've been getting a lot more questions about investing and some pretty damn good ones so I thought I would share a couple with you as they capture some pretty important investing concepts that we all need to make sure we've got lined up before we embark on our investing journey. One questions comes from an 18 year old who asked, "What kinds of stocks should an 18 year old invest in?" The other question was, "What will be the best investment for the next 10-20 years?" Pretty good huh? Well I take my best shot in answering them
This episode is a bit of a catch-up episode in that I touch base on a variety of interesting behavioural investing observations, starting with my own recent investment decisions and layering on some observations on how easily we can be swayed to take investment decisions that we really have no business taking. Finally I touch on a recent trend in the investing space where professionals are adding a little Zen to their investment decision making process.
I thought I would take a break from talking about robo advisers, but I discovered something in my robo portfolio that I couldn't put off sharing with you. One of the key value propositions of robo advisers is they stay disciplined to keeping your portfolio diversified across different types of stocks and bonds. When certain parts of the portfolio stray away from their allocations and increase or decrease significantly, the robo computer would rebalance via buying and selling the appropriate Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). Earlier this week I happened to be checking on my portfolio and was taken aback about how the portfolio was looking. In this episode I share what I discovered about how my robo portfolio looks now.
This episode is a replay of the webinar I delivered on finding your right investing path. I've delivered this presentation many times and it's one of my favourite and one of the most important. Many times I get asked, "Aman, I have $5000 or $10,000 or $50,000 and I want to invest it. What stocks or bonds or ETF's should I buy?" People are looking for the quick answer and solution. Unfortunately investing doesn't work that way. Investing is very much a marathon not a sprint. In order to make the right investing decisions and answer the question above, you need to first make sure you are on the right investing path as there are numerous ones available to all of us. In this webinar I walk you through these investing paths and help you try to figure out how to select the right path that is compatible with your personal circumstances. I also share some important principles and competencies that successful investors have developed that are important no matter what path you select.
In this episode, Aman provides some interesting updates from his previous episode where he was critiqued by a blogger regarding his use of questions as it pertains to the performance of his robo portfolio. It's also an episode of firsts as Aman presents his first book report since Grade 3. One of his goals this year is to read some of the personal finance books that have been piling up in his house. Aman's book report is on the book, Victory Lap Retirement, written by Mike Drak and Jonathan Chevreau.
A couple of episodes ago I talked about my latest update on my Robo portfolio that I setup a couple of years ago. People seem to be interested in my observations about my experience using a Robo Adviser. One of the main reasons I setup an account was to see if these types of portfolios perform any better than traditional portfolios. I asked the question does this type of business model make money for investors? Until recently, most online wealth management firms did not want to go there and disclose the performance of their online portfolios. So in my own small way I've been trying to answer this question. Suffice to say, some people seem to find my questions "strange". A blogger recently posted that I'm asking the wrong investing question in that performance shouldn't play a factor in investing. In this episode Aman offers a response to this post as well as further reinforce why there are no bad questions in investing.
In this episode, Aman reviews his recent investment decisions in January. It was a tough month with many different dynamics in play that forced Aman to make some tough decisions, however, the month provided Aman with an opportunity to practice and reinforce his discipline in managing losses, a skill set that investors do not practice enough as we tend to focus on finding profitable investments.
It's been two years since I setup my online investing portfolio via a robo adviser. In this episode I check in on my portfolio to see if it is delivering the goods and offer up some general observations about the robo adviser model.
The recent proclamation by the Donald (aka The Mad King) and his Wall Street minions of the desire to jump into a Hot Tub Time Machine and go back to 1999, a time where financial regulation was unfettered is a call to action for investors. Aman shares his thoughts on how the Financial Crisis became his A-Ha moment for starting his investment coaching practice and how we can take proactive steps to ensure we don't repeat the same mistakes of yesterday.
When I teach and mentor people how to buy and sell stocks and ETF's, the learnings revolve around understanding what makes stock prices go up and down. I teach people how to read and interpret financial statements, assess risk, valuation, developing an investment decision framework, learning and managing our emotions. These are core pillars to framing an investment decision. There is also one other very important factor that can drive stock prices and for the most part we ignore it and take it often for granted. Given the events of the past few weeks, this factor has become has now entered the discussion. Josh Brown of the Reformed Broker blog, wrote a fantastic piece called Stock Markets and the Rule of Law which reintroduces us...all of to the importance that the rule of law has in how business functions. In this episode I weigh with my own thoughts about this and how it has made take pause in how I am currently framing my own personal investment decisions.
In this episode, Aman shares some observations on how the financial services industry are targeting Millennials with sustainable investing products, even though the track records of these type of products are not the greatest. The industry's response is they are just giving what people want. Unfortunately it might not be in the investors best interest. Aman also shares his personal story of how his robo adviser tried to upsell him into adding a sustainable investment component to his portfolio. In the end even though an investment product may be compatible from a personal values perspective, it is still important to do your own research to determine if the investment is truly consistent with your investment plan and ideology.
I actually had a totally different working title for this episode but recent events have introduced a term that somehow fits where I'm going with this episode. I'm afraid that what I'm going to say is going to ruffle some feathers in the personal finance blogging community. When I started out as an investment coach, I spent a fair bit of time teaching people how to filter financial information from traditional sources like financial statements and brokerage reports. Recently I find myself adding an additional layer, which is reading and interpreting financial blogs as more and more I am finding blogs that are producing content that is paid or sponsored content, which is worrying to me as it casts some doubt in terms of the objectivity of the information being presented. I'm a bit conflicted in that I know people who do this and write some wonderful and thought provoking pieces, yet when I read a post that is sponsored I feel some of that "purity" or objectivity is lost, which I'm sure is what drives initially a lot of people to blog or do podcasting. The whole notion of social media influencers which corporations have pursued in their marketing strategy appears to be making its way through the personal finance genre. In this episode I weigh into what appears to be a growing phenomena and offer some takes if this a good thing for investors.
The new year to me is a natural time to pause and reflect on what I've accomplished this past year. More importantly it's a good time to lay the groundwork for the upcoming year. In this episode, Aman offers some insights into how to map out your investing path.
In this episode, Aman reviews some of the big investing flashpoint and how he dealt with them. There were three critical moments in 2016 that played important roles in how you performed during the year.
If you've read Malcolm Gladwell's book, Outliers, you are quite familiar with the 10,000 Rule, which he cites as the minimum amount of time one needs to master a skill or task. When I look at my investing career, my path has been very different in some sense, however the constant was the amount or practice I put into investing. I can safely say I've spend way over 10,000 hours in formal training as well as practice in analyzing and investing in stocks. I'm proud of that and it is my passion for investing that got me here. Unfortunately some don't see the 10,000 hour rule as applicable to investing. In this episode I try to calmly dispel this notion....calm being the key word.
November was a crazy month as we all know. Aman shares how he approached the month and his decisions to sell certain stocks.
This episode is a follow up to my mind map that followed a similar exercise. I try to walk through some possible scenarios that Trump policies (and apparently tweets) could have on stock prices in the short and long term.
As ETF's continue to enter the mainstream, investors need to be mindful of certain factors that can negatively impact investors. One element is the advent of self-indexing, where ETF companies instead of using 3rd party indexes to benchmark their performance, are developing their own benchmark indexes. Aman offers some takes on whether this is a good thing for investors.
In this episode of Stock Talk, Aman offers some good and bad takes about how the latest generation of fintech products and services is shaping how we make investment decisions.
In this episode of Stock Talk, Aman continues to explore abstract indicators that potentially influence stock prices by looking at of all things stock ticker symbols.
It's financial literacy month in Canada. Despite its noble intentions and large amount of resources dedicated to various financial literacy programs, a growing number of research has been revealing it is not yielding the desirable outcomes. Aman shares some thoughts on where financial literacy programs have gone wrong and what could make it stick longer term.
Aman offers some takes on a study that links body type with propensity of finance and wonders what the implications of "biological finance" will have on the types of services we could receive in the future.
There seems to be a race to the bottom in terms of ETF costs. While this is good news for investors, Aman ponders in this episode how do ETF companies make money off no cost ETF's?
Aman reviews his mindset and rationale that went in the investment decisions he made in September including one that he went back and forth repeatedly.
Aman shares some more hip-hop euphemisms that offer some insights into where they stand on various investing ideologies.
A research note by brokerage company Sanford Bernstein comparing passive investing to Marxism has created a furor of debate between proponents of active and passive investing ideologies. Aman weighs into the debate.
Aman reviews his decision to buy stock in Southwest Airlines by answering the 8 questions he always asks when evaluating a stock.
Aman reviews his latest investment decisions in August, specifically his decisions to sell positions. The decision to sell an investment can often be more difficult than the buy decision. Aman talks about how he thinks through his recent decisions.
It's not often that Aman get's set off after reading something, but that inflection point happened after reading an article on Robo Advisers in the Globe and Mail recently. It hit nerve on one of Aman's pet peeves about the model. Here's what Aman had to say in this archived episode of Stock Talk. The rant got some buzz and even a quote in the Financial Post!
In this archived episode of Stock Talk, Aman shares his new online investing training program, Everyday Investing.
Aman shares some his observations on what the Consenus thinking has been in the markets the past few months. Suffice to say, Consensus thinking could be looked at from the perspective of Pre-Brexit and Post-Brexit.
Aman shares his though processes on his most recent investment decisions from the previous month.
In this episode, Aman shares some thoughts on the rough week his portfolio's have been having and how he's been dealing with it.
In this episode of Stock Talk, Aman offers his take on the new CRM2 standards coming into effect in Canada and the impacts (if any) on disclosure of transparency of fess and performance.
In the 2 days of stock market chaos after the Brexit vote, an interesting thing happened in the robo adviser sphere that didn't get enough play in the mainstream media.. Aman sheds some light and offers some takes in this episode of Stock Talk. Oh yeah and he's outside!
In this episode of Stock Talk, Aman mind maps short and medium term impacts from the UK decision to leave the Euro Zone and impacts on stock prices.
We check in on our Robo portfolio that we created in 2015 to see how it's performing and gain some insights on the whole Robo adviser service.
A lot of the recent social, political, and economic events seem to be driven by emotions. In this episode of Stock Talk Aman offers some takes on how these emotional events can influence our investment decisions and how to deal with them.
In this episode of Stock Talk, Aman offers his take on the recent purchase of LinkedIn by Microsoft.
There's enough ink and character spaces being consumed on Millennials and frankly I think it's overkill and so the last thing I thought I'd be talking about was said Millennials. That being said, I've been observing a bit on the investment industry's outreach to this demographic and in this episode of Stock Talk, I gab about the potential impacts they could have.
Aman talks about some investment products that are getting serious play right now and how they are likely to flame out.
In this episode, Aman shares his thought process for his investment decision to buy Whole Foods stock.
Aman does a quick size up of Netflix stock coming off a tough set of earnings that saw the stock tank by 10 percent. Is it worth jumping in now?
Aman's at it again with his mind mapping. This time Aman takes a look at how world finance and economics seems to be revolving around China.
Aman chimes in on the new proposed fiduciary standards for the financial services sector. Suffice to say he's not impressed.
Aman muses about how the past weeks events could be a game changer moment for stock prices.
Aman laments on how risk is more and more being overlooked and shunned aside as part of the investment decision making process.
In this episode, Aman chats about how hard it is to refrain from doing something when stock markets and our portfolios turn ugly.
Aman talks about the importance of having an investment ideology and share his personal investment ideology.
Aman chimes in on some recent observations of consensus thinking going in the stock market.
Coming from a yet named location, Aman talks about how the consumer is doing from a unique vantage point!
In this episode of Stock Talk, Aman offers some random takes on some recent stock market events.
It's been one year since I opened an account with a Robo Adviser investment management service. Time to see if it delivered the goods.
In this edition of Stock Talk, Aman discusses the role the US Dollar has been playing in the recent stock market pullback and potentially how it can impact stock prices in the future.
Robo Adviser services are growing in popularity. Aman chats about one important component in evaluating them that many seemed to have overlooked.
The concept of negative interest rates was reserved to appendix of economics textbooks. Now it is a reality. Aman tries to mind map what all this talk of negative interest rates means and how it can potentially impact our investment portfolios in the short and long run.
Apple stock had a rough day. Aman Raina of Sage Investors tries to bring some perspective.
We're becoming a society of experts. Aman shares some thoughts on how depending on the modern Soothsayer can put a severe dent in your portfolio.
In this episode Aman ponders if the reason that stocks got hit heavily today was really the continuation of plunging oil prices. Aman mind maps some other possibilities that could be playing into the malaise.
Just recently the Bank of Canada surprised the markets and announced a cut in interest rates. Aman shares his insights on possible impacts of Canada lowering interest rates.
In this episode, Aman takes a look at oil stocks and ponders whether opportunities exist to use the plunge in oil prices as an opportunity to build some long term positions.
In this episode of Stock Talk, Aman chats it up about Contrarian Investing and some important principles that investors should be mindful when deciding to take the other side of the trade.
In this edition of Stock Talk, we talk about what Wu-Tang Clan can teach us about investing and business in general. The answer is a lot! Who would've thought!
Stock markets around the world took a hit on the first trading day of 2016 with China being the catalyst. In this session of Stock Talk, I try to mind map the impacts of China on the stock market and the overall global economy.
One of my goals for 2016 is for people to hear me talk more about investing versus writing about investing concepts and issues. One way I thought about achieving this is by using some of the bleeding edge streaming technology out there. So this represents my first in hopefully will be a regular feature where I babel about all things investing and stocks on Periscope. I'll be archiving all my "Scopes" on the website and posting the audio in podcast format on iTunes so bookmark and come back! In this initial episode, I talk about some things investors of all shapes and sizes should be thinking of doing as we embark on a new year. When I listen back on this first and the first bunch of episodes, I sound a little nervous, but as the year wore on, I seemed to get a little more comfortable with the concept.