KW FeedCast: Recent Episodes
KW Alternative Feeds
Brought to you by KW Alternative Feeds, this fortnightly podcast covers all you need to know about the raw material markets and topical product information. Ensuring you have up to date knowledge helping you make better informed buying decisions for all your herds needs.
Welcome back to this week’s episode of the FeedCast! This week we are joined by James Barker and Michael Hanbury from our procurement team.
The team start by discussing what is happening in the meal markets, particularly in the US.
James and Michael then dive into what is going on globally in the markets and chat through what to look out for in this week’s USDA report.
As always if you have any questions, reach out to your sales representative or contact us in the office. You can also visit kwfeeds.co.uk
Don’t miss out on the opportunity to hear our experts chat about what is driving the market right now!
*Please also have a look at the disclaimer in the notes of wherever you have downloaded the podcast from.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
Welcome back to this week’s episode of the FeedCast! This week we have our procurement duo James Barker and Chris Pickles.
The team discuss the recent USDA WASDE report where we expected to see a more volatile results however that wasn’t the case this July.
Chris and James dives into what is happening with the raw materials market globally, specifically focusing on the maize, soyabean and wheat markets.
As always if you have any questions, reach out to your sales representative or contact us in the office. You can also visit kwfeeds.co.uk
Don’t miss out on the opportunity to hear our experts chat about what is driving the market right now!
*Please also have a look at the disclaimer in the notes of wherever you have downloaded the podcast from.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
Welcome to this week’s packed episode of the FeedCast! Today, we’re joined by Laura Hana and Chris Pickles from our Procurement team. The team will dive deep into the latest market trends, sharing their insights and expertise.
In this episode, Laura and Chris will break down what is happening in regards to French plantings, give us the low down on the USDA report and discuss commodities such as maize, soya and rapemeal.
Don’t miss out on the opportunity to hear our experts chat about what is driving the market right now!
And as always if you have any questions, reach out to your sales representative or contact us in the office!
*Please also have a look at the disclaimer in the notes of wherever you have downloaded the podcast from.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
Welcome to a special takeover edition of the FeedCast! Today, we’re thrilled to pass the reins to two fantastic speakers—Mollie and Clare. In partnership with Feedlync by Cow Connect, the team will dive deep into the world of the Feedlync feed management system, sharing their unique insights, experiences, and expertise. Whether you're here to learn, be inspired, or just enjoy a great conversation, you're in for a treat.
Throughout this episode Mollie and Clare will touch on key features and benefits of the product, sustainability and cost savings, user experience and where Feedlync is heading in the future!
If you want to learn more about Feedlync please get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office!
*Please also have a look at the disclaimer in the notes of wherever you have downloaded the podcast from.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson our Raw Material Expert.
This episode is going to heavily focus on NovaPro and Vivergo Distillers which have been moving in volume in the last 3 to 4 weeks. This has been driven by the move towards lower carbon footprints and the fact both products have finally made themselves attractive in the forward winter market.
Chris also talks through what is going on in the market in regards to Russia and Ukraine and touches on what is happening with proteins.
Have a listen to hear Chris talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker and Chris Pickles from our Procurement team.
The podcast is going to heavily focus on the new USDA report. James and Chris will talk about how this has affected the Soya, Corn and Cereal commodities.
The team start by talking through the USDA report that was released on the 12th August and the general bearish sentiment.
Have a listen to hear James and Chris talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market.
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson our Raw Material expert.
Chris starts by discussing where we are with the different markets and how generally we are seeing the same themes across all commodities. This being due to lack of demand and general harvest pressure meaning the supply side feels comfortable at the moment.
Moving onto proteins, the US crops are progressing earlier and looking better than last year. In regards to Soya, the sentiment generally isn’t positive at the minute, with a further downside looking likely.
Have a listen to hear Chris talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson our Raw Material expert and Laura Hana from our Procurement team.
Chris starts by discussing the cereal markets where we have seen a continued decline, this is predominantly being driven by the Eastern European harvest.
Laura then moves onto the fact that as it is looking like a short term downside, customer wise we are seeing people begin to take some cover as far out as October 25 on products such as Sodawheat, Biscuit and Bread.
The team talk through the EUDR legislation and what the impacts will be. With the uncertainty surrounding the EUDR it would be worth looking at alternative products to Soya such as Rapemeal, NovaPro and Expeller.
Have a listen to hear the team talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker our Product Lead for Straights.
James starts by discussing the changes we have seen in the market and what opportunities there might be in regards to the agriculture commodity complex.
Firstly we’ve seen an opportunity on the wheat market quicker than we possibly thought. Markets have moved down £15 or so in the recent week, mainly following 10 consecutive days of Chicago wheat trading to the downside and global markets following. This seems due to plenty of improved weather stories, alongside a few geopolitical decisions to help aid the short term outlook on global wheat.
Moving onto the corn market, it has been fairly stagnant due to the good central US weather. There are no signs of drought at the minute and early crop harvest ratings have gone up to 75% good to excellent in the USDA predictions, which is a six year high. We have seen some downside movement in the proteins market. It isn’t to the same extent of cereals but with uncertainty in Soya for 2025 still lingering and a lack of availability in the distillers market, Rapemeal continues to be well supported with continued sales.
Have a listen to hear James talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
Chris describes the market as a real weather market and coupled with significant fund shorts it has led to spikes in price, which is what we have seen in the last 7-10 days!
Chris then discusses the weather conditions and how it has affected different parts of world, starting with Soya where prices have jumped £20-£30 per tonne.
On the mid proteins there is a slight tightness in distillers in the nearby months. Ensus run rates have been quite low and Vivergo have gone through a lot of the stock that they had. This has then led to a tightening of supply, resulting in a price increase.
Have a listen to hear Chris talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker and Chris Pickles from our Procurement Team.
James starts by discussing how currency and the escalations of geopolitics around the Black Sea and the Middle East are affecting the markets.Chris then delves into how this is affecting grains in particular touching on the situation in the Black Sea, Europe and the recent global movement of grains.
The team talk about the fact the market still has a bearish sentiment to it and remains a good opportunity to get cover on in regards to cereals and would encourage this where possible!
Have a listen to hear the team talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker and Chris Pickles from our Procurement Team.
Chris starts by discussing the recent volatility in regards to the wheat market and how the situation in the Black Sea is affecting the market.
James then talks through the USDA planting intentions report which may show the reduced acreage on the potential for corn and an increase in Soya for the next season.
Moving onto mid proteins, prices on the nearby have increased by £25 to £40 a tonne on Rapemeal in the UK over the last 5 or 6 trading days, which has been the largest increase we have seen for a while. To fill the gap we have plenty of Expeller from the Stratford site and also NovaPro which are at very competitive levels.
Have a listen to hear the team talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
We hope you have a lovely Easter weekend!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker and Laura Hana from our Procurement Team.
James starts by discussing Friday’s USDA report and how it has affected the markets.
Laura then delves into the fact that although on the day traded levels of Soya look better than Rapemeal on units of protein, Rape Extract / Expeller continues to sell due to it being available for the winter and an opportunity to enhance your sustainability credentials. We have seen people take advantage of this price, and summer cover is high. Soya will not be available from Jan 25 onwards, and it is really worth while looking at alternatives such as NovaPro.
Moving onto cereals, we are seeing some local tightness. If you are looking to take cover on your cereals, it’s a great option to look at products such as biscuitmeal and bread.
With Easter coming up in 3 weeks, please give us a call to get any products booked in that you will need over that time period!
Have a listen to the team talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson our Raw Materials expert.
Chris kicks of the podcast by discussing how cereals continue to be the biggest mover over the last few weeks. The amount of material coming out of the black sea is having a big impact on the market.
Chris discusses the situation in Ukraine, as well as being able to export to the EU they have made great progress with their exports out of Odessa. They are now back to pre-war levels, meaning they now have their old markets and new European markets to supply.
Moving onto mid proteins, distillers is fast becoming the best source of mid proteins and a potential buy.
NovaPro continues to grow in terms of volume and demand as it is performing really well in the farms and blending sites it is in. There is also a growing demand because it ticks all the boxes regarding sustainability, deforestation and carbon foot printing.
Have a listen to hear Chris talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson our Raw Materials expert and Chris Pickles our Blends Raw Material buyer.
Chris P starts the podcast by talking through the downside we have seen over the last few days with Wheat.
Chris D then moves onto discussing Soya and how it has reacted in the market. Chris touches on the availability of Soya and how we are going to be able to use it in the future.
On the mid protein side of things, there is a risk that as Erith starts to sell its position, prices start to increase which we have seen in the May/Jun/Jul period already. This will then drive demand back to Liverpool which could see the May/Jun/Jul period get quite tight on availability for Rape.
On the Distillers front we are still looking at poor availability from a UK point of view going into the summer. There is spot Vivergo available which is looking good value in comparison and it’s worth noting that Imported Maize looks great value price wise compared to where it has been the last few years.
Have a listen to hear the team talk more in-depth on these topics and what else is happening in the market!
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson our Raw Material Expert.
Chris starts by discussing what is happening in the Cereal markets in regards to Harvest. Also touching on the recent concerning events that have taken place in both Ukraine and Russia and how this will affect exports in the future.
Moving onto the protein side of things, we are sat waiting for the US harvest to get here. We remain relatively tight from a supplier point of view atfer the low South American crop this year. It’s a waiting game in regards to the weather as we head towards harvest.
Rapemeal is feeling relatively comfortable at the minute, seed availibility seems fine and crushing is beginning to improve. We are still tight on nearby availibility particiulary in the south but it is gradually easing off.
On the distillers side of things, we are still waiting on prices from Vivergo for the winter but we are seeing some competitive offers for the imported products as well as the Ensus product.
Almost weekly, we are seeing escalations in some shape or form and there will come a point where markets start to price in risk. Right now there is readily available wheats but as we start to move into Sept/Oct and move away from those harvest points, the focus comes down to what happens if we can’t get all of the material out of Ukraine that’s been produced.
As always get in touch with your sales represneative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Have a listen to hear Chris discuss these topics indepth!
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The lastest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker, our Raw Materials Buyer and Jonathan Hanson from our Raw Material Procurement Team.
James and Jonathan will be discussing the impacts of the latest USDA report and how things are progressing globally in regards to; weather, politics and how they have affected the markets. They delve into the outcome of the grain corridor agreement expiring at the beginning of this week and discuss how the crops will be transported across Europe.
Moving onto discussing product availability and any area of concerns, including tightness of Rapemeal in the UK which is also affecting Novapro and Expeller. There is a lack of supply and availability so it is worth noting if you require any rape based products.
The corn market has firmed up a little bit. Whilst Soya Hulls hasn’t changed in price in the UK, we are seeing a feast and famine situation with Wheatfeed as prices are rising due to it being tricky to get hold of on the spot market.
Prices are fluctuating quite heavily on a daily basis so keep an eye on trends and take advantage of small dips in order to get cover for the winter.
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker, our Raw Materials Buyer. As usual he will be providing an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets.
James starts with discussing the USDA plantings report and how its affected the market. A couple of main headlines are that there has been 2 million acres added to the march corn planted acreage which is very bareish news to the corn market. This has filtered through to our maize and other cereal markets including wheat and barley in the UK. The bullish sentiment to come from the report is that they have reduced the soy meal planting area by 4 million acres. From this we have seen some sharp price increases regarding soy meal, due to factors such as the weather, it is worth keeping an eye on the situation. It is a good time to be looking at cover for soy meal through till October and also looking at winter prices.
There is some good news regarding the corn market, we have seen this come down significantly this week due to the estimated volume. We have already seen this come back into our maize prices with whole and ground maize levels being the best they have all season. Hopefully this will transpire into our wheat and barley prices. We are currently seeing wheat trade between £185 nov futures through to £210 which is at the bottom of the range. Sodawheat, whole wheat and barley are all selling well along with products such as Sugarich. It is worth looking at cover and taking advantage of the cereal markets as they are.
With the grain deal set to expire on the 17th July things are still up in the air as we are hearing that there is going to be no negotiation. Although this was the case previously, it is looking less likely that this will change this time round. Volatility is to be expected, especially as we get closer to the deadline.
Rapemeal is very tight for July as the main crushers in the UK haven’t got any old crop material to sell, we are very hand to mouth on what is available.
Moving onto distillers, Ensus and Vivergo distillers are still available at competitive prices. Soya Hulls have been relatively unchanged for July – Oct for a while now and are generally trading between £195-£200. Looking at wheatfeed the markets are currently tight with fixings not being readily available.
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker, our Raw Materials Buyer. As usual he will be providing an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets.
James starts by discussing the changes we have seen from Friday 16th June in regards to the weather, the markets have risen globally for various different products. The soya meal market, has seen a differential of pricing on the day between 2 to 3 pounds which has become relatively normal. However on Friday, a lot of funds decided it was the right time to cover in shorts that had been developing. With the weather remaining hot and dry in the key growing states we are seeing an increase in price by £12-£20 depending on where you are looking / how far you are looking forward. Soya is the main product on the upside at the moment.
Moving to rapemeal, there is a distinct lack of offers available for June and July. With the crushers switching to different products other than rapemeal in Europe it is having a big effect on the meal that we are seeing. For Aug-Oct the premium into the new crop has now arrived because of the lack of availability for June and July, meaning we are looking at around a £40 premium from where we were a few weeks ago. We are continuing to see alternatives to rapemeal such as distillers, both Ensus and Vivergo products are still available.
We have seen the corn futures have rallied quite heavily however things such as maize and hulls haven’t been affected to much with the forward markets remaining relatively unchanged. It is worth looking at any opportunities for nearby June and July to get any cover if needed.
Looking now at cereals, we have settled above the Nov futures on £200 which has felt within the trade like a target that we have been aiming for the last month. There is still the ongoing issue regarding Russia and Ukraine, with this we are still seeing old crop prices remaining at very good value. Demand is feeling sluggish due to people not wanting to sell tonnes are the current prices in the last month or two. With the grain deal still being discussed its worth being cautious with your cereals and not necessarily going to long or to short at the moment.
As we mentioned earlier there are still alternatives available such as Vivergo. We also have Novapro and Expeller from Yelo which is home produced and competitive in regards to pricing.
Final thoughts from today are that the markets have rallied heavily from the 16th June and we are waiting to see if this now continues. Hopefully we can see this fall back from next week but its something to keep an eye on.
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson, our raw material expert. As usual he provides an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets.
Starting with a general overview of the markets, we have seen the markets move away from South America to focus on North America plantings, whilst more locally, we are still focusing on the weather and as always looking at the situation in Ukraine and Russia.
Wheat has bounced away from its lows and looks to being trying to find a foothold in the market, especially after the scare of the dam destruction in Ukraine. We see Russia aggressively saying they see no reason for an extension of the grain corridor when it concludes in July. The uncertainty around whether we will have access to Ukrainian grains at new crop remains an remains a significant upside risk, with this week’s events a reminder of how fragile the situation remains.
The US are starting to produce weekly ratings on the progress of the crops on a more regular basis. Plantings are progressing well across the board, but there are a few concerns. Winter Wheat conditions show a slight improvement but they still remain very low, but the biggest surprise was around Maize and Soya, with first condition ratings being well below what the market was expecting and being at the lowest starting point since 2019. It is very early days so is by no means a red flag, but something to note.
Soya has found a level as it hasn’t continued to fall too much further and as we stand is sitting very much in a trading range. Soya is around £410-420 delivered right through to April 24. There is a potential to see some weather concerns over the coming months which may affect pricing. However, certainly for the time being, it's worth making sure you have your Soya covered for at least the first half of the summer. It would also be beneficial to look at a percentage of next winter as there is a risk of some upside if the weather starts to turn against us.
Sticking with the proteins, Rapemeal has previously felt quite cheap and was commanding some demand. As a result of this we have seen some tightness meaning for June and July it is a struggle to buy the product. Even on the resale market it is almost impossible to buy a single load. This is partly driven by demand but also due to the fact that the demand for oil is poor. We would highly recommend looking for alternatives for June/July such as Vivergo which is readily available. As we move forward to new crop we are already seeing the northern market tighten significantly. If you are wanting to book for Aug-Oct Erith is by far the best buy however this could increase in the not too distant future.
Two key takeaways are that we are keeping an eye on the US weather and monitoring the situation in Ukraine particularly with the recent explosion and the subsequent flooding.
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson, our raw material expert. As usual he provides an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets.
Starting with proteins and kicking off with Soya. There is some good news in the fact that we have been seeing Soya break in the last few weeks as well as seeing positive currency movements from a UK point of view. The US plantings are getting off to a good start, meaning focus has moved away from an Argentinian crop which is very disappointing. The US is around 35% complete on their plantings against 10/11% this time last year. There remains a big question mark in regards to Chinese demand of all commodities particularly from US sourcing. Moving forward the weather is looking positive, so no major concerns at this time regarding Soya.
On the mid proteins side of things, we are seeing tightness of availability of Rapemeal particularly over the bank holiday periods and this is continuing to be the case in the south with demand really strong. Whilst there are imports being brought into the east coast, ultimately there is a lot less Rapemeal being crushed in this country, so it’s something to be aware of as we move into the summer months. July is very much a shutdown month for a lot of the rape crushers and we need to keep an eye on availability moving into June.
We are continuing to see relatively good availability on Distillers with Vivergo producing well. Ensus is currently supplying with no real issues and the Ensus product has switched back to predominantly wheat which is a positive for farmers looking to use it. Between Rapemeal, Vivergo and Ensus there are plenty of options for the mid protein requirement.
Looking further forward, we are seeing incredibly strong demand for NovaPro as an alternative to Soya. It still represents great value leading to availability starting to look tight for the first half of the summer. For Novapro users it would be beneficial to look at your requirements for May, June and July to avoid any disappointment.
The cereals markets are proving very difficult to judge. Funds have taken a hefty short position in the wheat market leaving it very exposed given the fact the Ukrainian grain corridor has still not been renewed and we are 5-8 days away from it closing. There has been additional comments today from Russia, suggesting that they are proposing a grain corridor with China. They have started the process of examining whether they can do something to improve the flow of grain from Russia into China. Russian wheat continues to drag us lower, however the next 5-8 days are crucial regarding the grain corridor. With the fact that it still looks more likely to close than remain open is something to be very wary of.
Looking across Europe, it is very dry in Ukraine which is a big concern. Whilst at this stage European and UK crop is looking in really good shape, we are looking at heavy rain falls from the last 4-6 weeks so there is concern there with the lack of sun and warmth.
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by James Barker, our Raw Materials Buyer and Laura Wildash one of our Sales Traders. As usual they will be providing an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets.
They start with discussing the situation in Ukraine as the grain deal is coming to an end on the 18th May. With various meetings happening between United Nations and Russia this week, it is expected that the volatility will continue and that the 18th May will be a key date to look out for.
Looking at starch based products or any products priced using Wheat futures, now could be a good time to start looking at forward cover – something to note that May pricing will go off the board so the focus will be on the November futures and pricing backwards. This is as good an opportunity that we have seen as these futures keep coming back but are supported at these levels with the difficulty of cost of production. It is a good time to be adding to your cover for summer but equally as important to be looking at your forward cover into new crop and next winter as there is still plenty of volatility within the market.
Moving onto proteins, there is still an extremely low crop in Argentina in contrast to the excellent crop in Brazil meaning prices are still very volatile ranging from mid 450-470 for the summer. Prices on Soya are still looking high, however there are good opportunities on other products such as Rapemeal, particularly on nearby Rapemeal and Distillers as there is a higher level of availability. It’s worth looking at spot loads for May, June and July sooner rather than later due to potential summer shut downs, its also a good time to consider taking full cover for the first half of the summer if Rapemeal is your preferred option.
Alongside Rapemeal, there is very good production of distillers at Vivergo. Volume is now available and looks good value against other proteins with summer prices being in the late 290’s ex hull.
Novapro sales continue to be fantastic, however, again it is worth keeping in mind the summer shutdowns if you are looking to book.
As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest edition of KW FeedCast sees Chris Davidson and James Barker discussing some positive news on the commodities markets.
This week has seen no change in the fundamentals, Argentina is still expecting a record loss in soya, while Brazil are still running behind due to the bad weather. We have also seen an extension in the Ukraine grain corridor for the next 60 days. However, Russia have made some big demands to keep it open past this time, including reinstated access to swift banking, so whether this does remain open remains to be seen.
However, we have seen a big fall in price in some of the commodities which have been stuck for the last four months or so. Soya and cereals have both been impacted by the financial markets coming under pressure and have brought a welcome respite to farmers.
We don’t believe any of these drops will be maintained as production prices remain high. So now is a great opportunity to take forward cover, especially for new crop, and take some risk off the books.
As always if you want any advice please do talk to your local seller or contact us in the office.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson, our raw material expert. As usual he provides an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets.
Starting with Cereals, we had the USDA report last week, with the wheat point of view relatively bearish. We saw increases in production estimates across numerous countries and world end stock projections move higher . Although we are in market slowly trending lower due to the fact that those stocks are increasing, there’s still a lot of risk around the world.
Ukraine is continuing to dominant the news, we are seeing conversations this week about extending the grain support corridor which is due to expire in just over a weeks’ time. Alongside that uncertainty, looking forward we are seeing major decreases in Argentinian crop on the maize front and potential downsize in Brazilian maize crop. At the moment this isn’t a game changer but could be a key concern in the market.. Whilst we are at recent lows, it’s a great opportunity to get some forward cover.
On the protein side of things we have seen a small break in the Soya price however ultimately soya still remains very expensive. We are starting to see demand destruction taking place both from a UK and Global point of view. The challenge will be that we don’t know how big of a destruction it will be and also what the South American crop will be at the end of the harvest. Brazil are about 53% harvested now which is roughly 10% lower than what they were last year. In the USDA report we saw a much bigger cut in the Argentinian crop than the USDA would usually make in a single report, we saw them cut their productions estimate from 41mil tonnes down to 33. We are seeing estimates coming out at lower than 30, the lowest so far being 27mil tonnes.
In mid proteins we are seeing tightness again in products such as Distillers and Rapemeal. However summer prices have started to ease back towards recent lows the further forward you go, increasing demand for May-Oct.
Summer prices for Vivergo distillers have now hit the market, there is a May-Sept run available which looks good value especially against Soya.
Fundamentally there hasn’t been a huge shift in where we were a couple of weeks ago with cereals continuing to ease, Soya has remained relatively firm with the lack of progress in Brazil and the losses in Argentina. On mid proteins, summer is starting to ease with NovaPro being the stand out product over the last few weeks. We have seen a really strong demand particularly in the spot market with this carrying through to the summer.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson, our raw material expert. As usual he provides an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets.
Starting with soya, which is the most interesting at the moment due to its stubbornness to fall despite no real change in the market. Brazil, admittedly has struggled with the harvest over recent weeks due to heavy rain, however they are only 10% behind year on year and are expecting a record harvest of over 150mT. On the flip side Argentina continues to lower its forecast, and the Buenos Aires DA has just published an expected crop size of 33.5mT, which is a reduction of 12-15mT from the initial forecast, although this is not dissimilar to last years crop. Demand for soya is also remaining low, with the US weekly export and sales continuing to disappoint and at the moment there is no sign of increased purchasing from China. Despite all this, price is remaining at over £500T for summer. We would therefore advise you to wait and see before purchasing soya and take heart from the fact that the disappointing Argentinian forecast hasn’t pushed price higher.
Mid-Proteins are continuing to see a lack of demand at the moment, and this has resulted in lower pricing despite the lack of availability. This is happening across the board in rape and distillers, especially the May-Oct pricing for NovaPro and Rapemeal.
Over the past month cereals have seen an increase in price as the anniversary of the Ukraine: Russia conflict approached. Now this has past, the price has fallen again. It is worth noting that the Ukraine grain export corridor is due for renewal. This may affect price while the negotiations commence. At the moment the European crop is looking good, however there is growing concern over winter drought over Europe and if this continues alongside a lower Ukraine and Russian crop, this could put increased pressure on price.
As always if you have any questions or need some help please don’t hesitate to contact the office or your local sales representative.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
Chris Davidson is back with us for the second Feedcast of 2023, as usual he is discussing the main raw material markets and any opportunities he sees arising.
Soya remains the biggest mover this week with the price volatility remaining due to the dryness in Argentina and the questions that remain over the Chinese demand for the crop. With rain this weekend we have seen prices stabilise but markets remain bullish, with heavy losses expected from the crop and the lowest good to excellent rating ever at just 3%. Interestingly it is worth bearing in mind that it was the same last year and the only difference this year is that Brazil is predicting a bumper crop, making the overall supply side much better than last year, but at present, this is not reflected in the price. We have also seen reports from China over the last week which temper hope of higher demand, there was a lower growth than expected for 2022 and for the first time since 1960 the Chinese population fell. So while there is risk in the Soya market the majority of it is speculation. It is worth pointing out that nearby remains very tight with over £60T difference between now and the May-Oct pricing due to lack of supply. This is therefore unlikely to change.
Mid-proteins continue to be tight on the nearby with issues with the Vivergo plant affecting availability of wheat distillers and rape crush lower than usual. However there is a big discount on the may-oct pricing especially in the rape, which is making products like NovaPro very favourable from a DUP point of view.
The cereals markets continue to drift lower and wheat is now below pre-war levels. This is due to lack of news in the market and could change quickly if the war escalates as predicted. Maize is worth watching as the dryness in Argentina coupled with heavy rain in Brazil affecting 2nd planting could push prices higher, although supply in Europe remains stable at present.
Finally Sugar Beat has taken a beating from the earlier heavy frost and the already smaller crop has been left even smaller. This will mean very little availability and therefore high prices. With soya hulls also potentially affected by the Argentinian dryness you should think about your fibre cover.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
Our first FeedCast for 2023 sees Chris Davidson give a quick update on what has been happening in the markets over the holiday season.
Starting with the protein market, which has seen the biggest movements over the last couple of weeks. Soya has built more risk in to its price due to the ongoing dry conditions in Argentina, coupled with a decrease in UK currency, this has seen a significant rise in the price.. Brazil however is still performing well with a very positive start to the harvest. However, at the moment this is not reflected in the pricing. Mid proteins continue to be very difficult in the nearby due to lack of supply from Erith and Vivergo. However, the forward markets do look like an opportunity particularly the new crop, Aug-Oct. It is potentially worth looking at covering any protein risk you may have.
Over the festive period the Cereals market have added risk due to the snow in the US and the ongoing Ukraine, Russian conflict. It has given the majority of this back now, but it is worth considering the potential volatility here. While we are unsure of any damage to the US crop the expectation is this will be minimal, the main watch out continues to be the conflict in Russia and Ukraine. At the moment the export corridor remains operating, however the conflict has caused infrastructure damage and this will have an on going effect. We are also now seeing a lack of insurance for ships going in to the region, this could of course impact the number of ships prepared to go to the Black Sea. So far the markets have not responded to this information but it will mean continued volatility going forward.
While it has been a relatively relaxed start to the year we expect volatility to remain high for the future and as usual we will be on hand to help with any advice should you need it. We wish you a happy new year and a prosperous 2023.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
The last FeedCast of 2022 sees Chris Davidson discussing the recent falls in the cereal markets and what this means for opportunities as well as a quick overview of the protein markets.
The cereal markets are seeing a real opportunity at the moment as the markets respond to Christmas with a risk off attitude. September through to April 24 is looking positive with pricing becoming favourable to prices we have seen pre-war. It is worth considering taking risk off your table and we are seeing a lot of customers taking 50% cover to alleviate any potential future risk. Having said that nearby still remains very tight and prices and availability reflect that.
Forward buying on the protein markets seems to be focused on Rapemeal, with prices looking very competitive against soya and distillers are not competing at the moment. This is a picture that could change rapidly as the hull plant shuts at the end of the year and energy prices may mean we see less seeds crushed. Soya has rallied in the last few weeks, which is a reaction to the continuing bad weather in Argentina and an expectation of increased demand from China as they continue to unlock covid regulations. The Brazil crop is looking better than expected, at around 150mT, if this does continue it may help alleviate the tightness and be reflected in forward pricing.
As always, the prudent approach is to look at forward cover and take risk off your table where you can.
We wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from all at KW Feeds.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
This week’s FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson, and sees him discussing the fall in the wheat futures as well as well as the shift in direction on the soya markets following some surprise announcements from the US last week.
The soya plantings are beginning to finish in Brazil - 90% complete, and have been going really well with a 150MT+ crop expected. Argentina, however, is the opposite story, with weather holding up plantings which are only 30% complete, well below the 5 year average and is a real area of concern as demand for soya remains high. This has been followed by the shock announcement from the US that they will be reducing the mandates on renewable fuels. The market has seen the oil prices fall and meal prices rise to counterbalance the margin spread for crushers. Prices are moving up quite quickly now.
Fortunately mid proteins have not followed the soya price higher, and Rapemeal looks good value going forward, with Vivergo distillers trying to compete as well. Although in the nearby rape prices remain high due to lack of supply. It is worth looking at your protein needs now to ensure you are not caught without. On the flip side Vivergo distillers have good availability so look good, as does NovaPro. This product has seen increased demand as a soya replacer due to the lack of availability, high price and sustainability implications of using soya.
Cereals are now a very different story with the markets in relative free fall since the confirmation of the black sea corridor continuing. It is worth noting while the nearby supply looks good, the supply issues could we be just be being pushed to new crop. The wheat crop in Argentina is only 23% complete, half the 5 year average and only 8% of it is rated good or excellent and has the potential to lead a rebound as actual yields begin to come out. Using this dip to start a percentage of forward looks sensible in the face of a lot of risk still to come.
As always it is about managing your risk, whilst these prices look expensive compared to the last 10 years, they are very good when compared to the last year. With volatility in the markets predicted to remain for some time to come it is worth thinking about your cover now.
Legal Disclaimer:
Please note: The information provided during this podcast has been prepared for general informational purposes only and does not constitute advice. The information must not be relied upon for any purpose and no representation or warranty is given as to its accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Any reference to other organisations, businesses or products during the podcast are not endorsements or recommendations of AB Agri or its affiliated companies. The views of the presenter are personal and may not be the views of AB Agri. The contents of this podcast are the copyright of AB Agri.
Todays FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker. It covers the current movements in mid-proteins, soya and wheat.
Mid-proteins are currently offering good opportunities in the spot markets. Vivergo is up and running with good volumes which is putting pressure on the price. This has carried through to the rapemeal market, especially coming out of Erith in the south. Expeller is also competing around the country for volume, all helping to provide a chance to take advantage of pricing now. While the Dec-Jul market is looking high in comparison, we are seeing buying occur in the Aug-Oct 23 markets which are beginning to look interesting.
On the soya front, the US is almost finished harvesting, Brazil has made a great start to the plantings and all is beginning to look good. With a new USDA report out on Wednesday will they have to increase their yield forecast? If this does happen we will expect some bearish news and a reflection in the price so potential opportunities. NovaPro is remaining an excellent alternative to soya and we are seeing an increase in purchasing as the soya price remains high.
The wheat markets remain on a knife edge. Ultimately world stocks are very short and this is reflected in the market pricing. With wheat continuing to move out of Ukraine we could get bearish news, however it really depends on the black sea corridor remaining open and the risk associated with this remains high.
Today’s FeedCast special is brought to you by James Hallett, KW South Sales Team Manager, Anna Sutcliffe, KW Nutritionist and Anna Dinsdale, AB Vista Nutritionist. This episode addresses potential winter feeding issues and products you can use to take advantage of the strong milk and beef prices this year, despite the variable forage quality and uplift of 30% in feed prices over the last year.
This year we need to equip herds to deal with the poorer forages we have seen so far and ensure we get returns from it. To do this we must put ruminal health and efficiency first in order to maximise what we get from our feed.
Firstly, we look at products to unlock fibre before it even enters the rumen. Vista Pre-T is a treatment that increases the surface area in your forage, maize or whole crop. Addition of this product can generate an additional 0.8MJ of energy giving you more from less.
Forage analysis is highly variable this year with some grass silages containing very high levels of lactic acid, in this situation AcidBuf, a long acting rumen buffer, is very effective at preventing acidosis. AcidBuf is priced very favourable against alternative buffering agents currently and it provides a highly available source of Magnesium and Calcium increasing rumen productivity and ensuring you get the most from every mouthful.
Finally it is worth considering a yeast to maximise your rumen health. Live yeast can work in 3 ways, firstly they create a more favourable environment for the fibre digesting bacteria, secondly they compete against lactic acid producing bacteria and finally can act as a nutrient source for the fibre digestors.
These products allow you to maximise your fibre digestion on farm, giving you the most energy for the herd and ensuring you get maximum ROI from every animal.
Today’s FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson. This episode has been delayed due to the weekend events in Ukraine and the timings of the latest USDA report to give you the most up to date information possible. Two weeks ago we were dealing with the markets response to the government's mini budget, and we hoped that if we waited the markets would go back to focusing on supply and demand fundamentals. Sadly, whilst this happened to an extent, the financial markets remain nervous about the government plans. Then, over the weekend, we have seen increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia which has resulted in increased risk perceived in commodities coming out of the black sea region.
Wheat futures hit a 3 week high on the back of this instability before beginning to fall again. This fall is partly due to Russia not continuing to retaliate to the bombing of the Crimea bridge and partly due to the USDA report yesterday, suggesting wheat and maize stocks are better than expected. However, world wheat stocks are expected to fall year on year. The price also remains linked to the black sea export corridor continuing. This corridor deal is due to expire in mid-to-late November and negotiations could be tricky, as we are already seeing with Russia stating new demands to NATO. Whilst the corridor staying up will likely push prices lower in the end, we could see more spikes in pricing as those negotiations take place. Right now it is a wait and see situation, there is definite risk however and I would not advise anyone to enter winter with no cover.
From a soya perspective we are heading in to the US harvest but the USDA report yesterday has again reduced yield expectations. This is causing uncertainty in the markets resulting in higher pricing. The world view however is very different with positive numbers coming out of South America, we are also seeing a lowering in demand, especially from China. This has resulted in a risky but very high price, with markets again waiting to see what happens before buying or looking at cheaper alternatives such as NovaPro.
Mid proteins have followed the soya prices higher. Rape meal is struggling due to poor seed flows in Europe and the uncertainty around cost of production due to the energy markets. All leading to uncertainty over actual crush numbers and this is again resulting in high prices and people looking to cheaper alternatives such as Vivergo Wheat Distillers.
In summary the last two weeks have given us shocks and surprises but the market situation has remained largely unchanged. In the nearby people are still focused on spot and filling gaps where they can. When looking forward the alternative products are the ones to watch right now.
Today’s Feedcast is brought to you by Chris Davidson, discussing the unprecedented currency changes and how they are affecting the raw materials markets. Overall it feels like a wait and see before investing at today’s levels.
Fundamentally the markets are performing well and looking bearish if anything. However we are not seeing this reflected in the pricing due to the risk associated with the UK’s failing economy. So while we should be seeing falling commodity prices, this is not trickling through and instead we are seeing price hikes.
On the soya front the US harvest is about to get underway. However in the last week or so the USDA have announced a reduction in the size of the crop which has surprised the market. While this potentially affects US supply, they are not seeing the demand increase due to Argentina already selling in to the market. Looking at today’s prices it feels like this lack of demand is not yet featured and ultimately the price will need to fall for the US to be competitive in the world markets. As the demand picture becomes clear this should result in a lowering of this price.
The South American crops are being watched carefully at the moment with very dry conditions having the potential to affect crops from wheat to second planting maize. At the moment large crops are being forecasted but this could change if the rain does not fall.
In the mid-proteins the picture around rape looks uncertain, this is due to market speculation on gas prices and how seed will be moved around, resulting in a very high price and respectively very low demand. Distillers from Vivergo, Ensus and imported wheat have also taken a downturn in demand, this is following questions on site and production numbers.
Cereals are also experience high price volatility with the Russia and Ukraine situation adding risk in to the price. With the amount of grain we are seeing coming out of both Russia and Ukraine at the moment the price should be lower, but the risk of this stopping suddenly has been captured in the price.
The risk of global recession and concern around the demand is therefore weighing on a lot of things, while we are seeing the downside in commodity markets the currency issue here in the UK means we are not seeing the lower prices currently. The best advice is to wait and see what happens next, with a safe bet at the moment to cover on UK based products such as Novapro.
The latest Feedcast, brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker, continues to highlight the volatility we see in the market and how you should be looking for opportunities where you can, while being aware the market is trying to head up rather than down.
They start by describing the grains market at the moment. Maize in particular has seen a large rally off the back of the annual ProFarmer crop tour, which has taken place in the US over the last week. This year has seen maize estimates 15mT lower than the current USDA forecast, coupled with the weak European crop, these prices are likely to remain bullish. With Nov Wheat futures trading between £260-£270, it is worth considering taking cover if they get back to the £260 level.
The tour has also looked at soya, and while estimates started slow resulting in price increases, they have ended up around current USDA estimates and the price is beginning to fall again. It is worth noting that the currency exchange rates are affecting this pricing heavily at the moment with the Doller stronger against a weak Pound. There is even talk of reaching parity at some point. However with harvest about to commence in the next few weeks and if the weather is as expected, we may well see a dip and an opportunity to buy, watch this space carefully!
Rapemeal is a different story with a large rally on pricing over the last fortnight due to the very high energy prices we are seeing at present. This has resulted in an increase on Winter pricing of between £20-£30T. However not all is doom and gloom with May-Jul seeing some discounting as crushers look to increase their forward sold positions. We believe it is worth keeping an eye on these prices and looking at taking cover if they continue to dip.
Opportunities in the market right now include Palm Kernels, one of the cheapest prices we are seeing right now, especially considering the SugarBeet and Soya Hull pricing and the fact wheat feed is hard to buy. Also worth a look is Vivergo Wheat Distillers who are back in the market and are seeing no sign of a slowdown. Finally NovaPro is also great value to fill up your DUP, while soya remains at the high price we are seeing at the moment. In the main the pricing in the markets today is really encouraging you to look at home grown products with good availability – let's not forget these are great from a sustainability point of view too – a win:win.
As always if you have any questions on any products or pricing don’t hesitate to call the office or speak to your seller
Today’s episode of Feedcast is brought to you by James Barker and Jonathan Hanson from the KW buying and product teams. Today they are discussing the cereals markets around the world and how they continue to be affected by the global weather and the ongoing situation in Ukraine.
The last two weeks has seen the markets continue to be choppy with the Chicago futures, French and London markets all seeing increases due to the ongoing Ukraine crisis. While the first boat has now left port, this good news doesn’t seem to have calmed down the prices. The situation is still turbulent and consequently the volatility still remains.
Globally, the hot, dry weather is still the main story across Northern America and Europe. These conditions are affecting key crops at key growth stages for the plants. Of course a forecast is a forecast and changeable but this will add continued volatility to the market as we wait for harvest to see how badly the crops have been affected, over the course of the last week both the USDA and France have lowered the amount of good to excellent crops by 3% and 7% respectively. Interestingly while this has caused a fluctuation in prices in the corn and soya markets, ground maize is holding and may well offer a good opportunity now.
Rapemeal has also seen an increase over the last fortnight due to crushers being well sold, and the lower Rhine levels. Here the lack of rain has seen water levels fall, this means boats cannot fill as much as they like in Germany and has resulted in lower availability. As a result of this NovaPro and rape expeller are looking excellent value for summer and moving forward in to winter.
From a fibre perspective we have not seen much movement with SugarBeet pricing remaining firm and soya hulls looking competitive against them.
It is worth also looking at your performance products. Gas prices have again reached around £5/therm, back to the highs at the start of the invasion. This will affect production costs and it is worth looking at these products now as the volatility is likely to remain for some time to come.
As always we are here to help if you need any further information, but keep watching the dips and take advantage of opportunities when you see them.
Today’s Feedcast is brought to you by James Barker and Jonathan Hanson, one of our KW product Managers. This episode sees them discussing what has been happening over the last few weeks in the world markets, including the political and weather influences to pricing.
The potential Ukraine food corridor continues to affect the raw materials markets, especially the wheat, which has seen high levels of volatility as optimism remains around the opening of the corridor, which of course has been ongoing for a while now. 20 million tonnes of grain is sitting ready to leave Ukraine, the question is will it actually be released. The daily change in the likelihood of this happening means the price continues to fluctuate rapidly even though the actual situation remains at a standstill.
Also affecting the world markets and topical today is the weather. Any change in the forecast can affect pricing. Right now we are at a critical time for growing in North America and the weather is not playing ball. On top of this the condition of the crops continues to deteriorate, as this falls, prices continue to firm up. All these external factors including currency, talk of recession and inflation rates are affecting the volatility we are seeing at the moment. This means you need to pick dips when they happen and take advantage with a percentage of your needs, helping you to take risk out of your books. With the majority of pricing coming off the back of media stories rather than facts and figures, it is a very difficult market to get right.
The majority of the protein and fibre prices have remained stable this fortnight, with the exception of NovaPro which still looks very good value compared to soya. As always if you want to talk about anything discussed in today’s podcast or require feeding advice please contact your sales specialist or the KW office.
Today’s episode of KW FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker, discussing the volatility in the markets at the moment and the slightly more positive outlook right now.
Wheat has been the biggest mover in the last few weeks, from its May peak at mid £360’s, it has now declined by around £100 per Tonne. This is partly due to the fairly positive news of Russian withdrawal from snake Island, meaning the markets do think an export corridor could be possible. On top of this Russia has lowered its export tax by around $60perT enabling it to compete in the markets again. All of this means now is a good time to think about forward cover, if the Russian:Ukraine export corridor does not open these prices could change very rapidly for the worse.
Rapemeal is a similar story, again reflecting the potential exports from Ukraine but also the loosening of palm oil exports from Indonesia and the demand from the EU for bio-diesel. UK availability is looking good and price is at a sensible level to take cover. It is also a good time to utilise NovaPro in your diets as sustainability comes back on the processors agendas, at £100 below the soya price it is a good way to save on the protein cost and lower your carbon footprint. It is worth considering that risk is equally high in the oil markets with food security high on everyone’s agendas, only one and half months ago Indonesia had banned exports and that could return, especially if we don’t see the Ukrainian exports coming.
Wheat distillers are not looking as attractive as the Rapemeal due to high import costs, Vivergo still struggling with start up and Ensus prices remaining strong.
Likewise Soya is still well supported with world stocks tight and demand strong. The USDA report lowering the US crop by 2 million tonnes has helped to support this price, however we did see a sell off last Friday due to sellers operating a risk-off mentality, we would expect these prices to remain strong over the coming months as we watch the weather closely in the soya growing regions.
Finally it is worth noting the gas price at the moment. This has rocketed up from 20p a therm to 400p a therm due to the planned shut down of the Russian gas pipeline Nordstream1. This gas price can affect feed additives and specialist products such as Urea and Caustic. You must continue to think about the background costs as well as the commodity markets themselves.
Now is the time to look at getting the risk off your table, we believe this is a low point in the market and the risk of an upturn is high. If this happens prices will rise very sharply.
Your latest commodity update is brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker. This episode starts by discussing the rape market. Rape has had a big drop off from the over £400 highs we have seen and is now available in the low £300's in some places. When buying rape we tend to advise to look at around 60-62% of the soya price, we are back to this sort of level, which seemed unachievable a few weeks ago. Sadly, there is a caveat to this, following the announcement of Cargill’s decision to shut their crush in Hull. This has resulted in Northern prices not seeing the lows of the South. Positively with Vivergo reopening there will be alternative mid-proteins on the market.
As we advised last time the rape and cereals price will be affected by the possible Russian/UN deal around the Odessa port and no one knows which way this deal will go. Now is the time to think about cover as whatever happens will happen quickly so you do need to manage your risk.
Soya is now looking less favourable due to increasing hot, dry conditions causing some rallies. The currency is also a factor here as the loss of a cent can mean an increase of £5 in the price. From a food oil perspective soya has also taken a hit with rape going well and Indonesia ready to export palm oil again, this has meant meal price needs to remain firm to support the crush margin. Over the next few months soya pricing will be based on what the weather does, this is a risky place to be and can leave you exposed. Positively, home grown options such as NovaPro and rape expeller are a brilliant cost effective replacement here.
Our main takeaway this week is if your book is looking empty, you need to evaluate your risk and maybe now is the time to act.
Today’s FeedCast looks at the political influences affecting the world markets as well as focusing on specific feeds available in the UK.
The last few weeks have seen the grains markets fall heavily, this has been driven by the potential talks between Russia and the UN, focused on allowing grain and oil seed to leave Ukrainian ports. Depending on the outcome of these negotiations the prices could continue to fall or rise dramatically and the futures pricing is balanced on a knife edge around this.
From a crop perspective the Ukrainian plantings have gone well and added potential additional stock to world levels. The UK crop is also looking positive, assuming the weather holds for getting it out of the ground. The majority of Europe is also looking positive aside from France, which has suffered severe weather resulting in a downgrade, with more to potentially come. The US remains questionable with periods of dryness continuing to affect the crop. On top of this Maize is equally worrying with the Brazilian crop recently downgraded. All of this means the grains markets are well supported and you need to think carefully about taking cover and when.
Protein wise soya remains stable, the US planting has caught up and the national average is back to where we expect it for this time of year. Demand remains strong and this means prices are supported. Closer to home the rape market in the UK is falling, especially in the south, and this is driving demand for the Aug-Apr pricing. In the mid-proteins Vivergo is about to release product and this will cement itself in to the market over the coming months.
Fibres see SugarBeet remaining firm and hard to buy due to the high demands resulting in more interest around soya hulls and imported sugar beet.
Risk management is key at the moment and you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket. As always if you wish to discuss these issues further please contact your local sales specialist.
This Feedcast special is focusing on the beef finishing markets. Today, Tom Spears, our resident sales specialist and Anna Sutcliffe, one of KW’s ruminant technical managers, discuss what has happened to the beef industry over the last 12 months and how important the right feeding regime is for your cattle.
Since June 2021 we have seen a rapid increase in the deadweight price but on the flip side this has not risen as quickly as the input costs, including feed. Anna and Tom discuss the cost of a basic barley ration and the change they have seen in these systems over the last year, including the movement to a lower starch diet through the utilisation of co-products. They advise that improving your cattle rumen health and keeping your herd happy and healthy is the best way to increase your overall profitability.
Challenge the team to help you improve your business at Beef Expo this Saturday (May, 28th) or contact the team in the office today.
Today’s Feedcast is brought to you by Chris Davidson and as usual gives you an overview of the raw material markets today, focusing on wheat, soya and the mid proteins.
The wheat market continues to move higher and higher breaking new records. This week it is off the back of India deciding to ban exports, while this was not a surprise, the confirmation has resulted in London Wheat opening on Monday 16th £15 higher. This has resulted in new crop now being around the same price as old crop. The USDA report for wheat published last week has largely been ignored by the market, and the ongoing bullish story continues to keep the prices high, and with no real bearish news on the horizon it seems unlikely the market will calm down anytime soon. From an EU point of view dryness in France is beginning to be cause for concern, but generally the crops seem to be doing well. There are opportunities in ground maize and SugaRich products such as biscuit meal and bread which could offer a good alternative.
Protein wise we are continuing to see the soya price remain weak. Production of the 22/23 crop year is looking positive with some big numbers being talked about and this could see the price continue at these lower levels. While the US is behind in planting, the positive weather at the moment could see this turn around rapidly. The demand from China remains the big question, and the market is in flux waiting to see the outcome.
Mid proteins are seeing an easing of pricing as distiller boats begin to arrive and increased Vivergo availability expected from mid-June. Strangely prices are higher in the South than the North at the moment but Rape Expeller remains good value. It is worth noting lower prices have been on the nearby rather than the forward prices, which have seen increases over the last week.
The fibre market remains tight with slow arrivals of soya hulls and tight availability on Sugar Beet, Wheat Feed and Maize Meal.
This is a challenging market and you should focus on your margins, considering your forward milk price vs the forward feed cost and see if the time is right, rather than guessing what this market is going to do. You must manage your risk.
As always, if you need any further information please contact your local sales specialist.
Today’s Feedcast special covers everything you need to know about NovaPro. A high rumen bypass rape expeller that provides a sustainable and cost effective solution to meeting the protein requirements of high performing cows.
NovaPro is made from 100% British grown rapeseed which undergoes hot mechanical expelling of oil at Yelo in Stratford upon Avon. It is then treated with Xylig (natural wood sugars) and gentle steam treatment to increase the bypass protein content to a similar level to Soya (17% vs 17.6% bypass protein/DUP on an As fed basis). This is achieved without the use of chemicals, unlike Formaldehyde treated rape and rape extract which utilises hexane for oil extraction.
It can be used as an effective Soya replacement on farm, with an improved amino acid profile compared to soya driving dry matter intake and milk yield. A trial run at the University of Nottingham found the ration containing NovaPro to produce an additional 1.7L of milk per cow per day compared to a conventional Rape/Soya based ration with no change in constituents and an improved milk urea nitrogen(MUN) level -showing improved protein efficiency on farm, which can help to support improved fertility and lower ammonia and nitrous oxide emissions.
Another environmental consideration is that NovaPro only has 1/7 of the carbon footprint of soya . With processors and retailers committing to carbon footprint goals, farmers will need to evaluate the raw materials used on farm, looking at their origin, production and supply chain. NovaPro offers a solution to help you lower the carbon footprint of your feed whilst maintaining your performance.
Todays episode of Feedcast sees Chris Davidson discussing the current UK market before moving on to an overview of the grains, soya and fibre markets more generally
While the UK remains tight in the nearby, there are signs of loosening coming towards the end of May and in to June. Currently; distillers are propped up by the false start at Vivergo, Ensus down time and a lack of imports. Rapemeal is beginning to see crushers looking at business left to be done and the soya arrival has been delayed due to strikes in Argentina. All this has led to a lack of availability of product. However, as the boats begin to arrive from Argentina we will see prices begin to decrease. Likewise with distillers, we should see supplies begin to ease as imports arrive on boats from June, and as the price of rape seed oil remains high we will see an increase in rapemeal needing to be sold. This all points to prices beginning to ease and longer term the prices in August are looking much more promising.
Globally, starting with soya, we are towards the end of the South American harvest and the beginning of North American planting. The Argentinian harvest is at about 50% and while it looks like it will be slightly down on the latest USDA numbers, this has already been priced in. Only 8% of the US planting is in the ground so far, meaning it is too early to say what will happen in the future, however the USDA report out next week will take in to account these planting levels and the expected demand from China to help give us a steer on the future.
The grains picture is still centred around Ukraine and the disappointing winter wheat from the US which has had the worst crop rating in recent memory. More positively the global wheat production is only estimated to be down by 1mT to 780mT, with losses offset by Europe, Russia and Canada.
The fibre market has not seen a significant change, with low availability meaning there are opportunities here and there, but with strong summer cover you need to pick and choose your deals.
One good opportunity right now is NovaPro, and can be found cheaper than rapemeal, so worth considering for any protein gaps. While prices remain high, they are lower than the record highs we have seen and we are beginning to see an increase in forward cover in an effort to budget and remove risk where possible. As always contact your local KW representative for any questions or advice.
This episode of Feedcast is brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker. Today they discuss the current wheat market, the latest USDA report and what opportunities there are currently.
Starting with the wheat, we are beginning to see interest in the new crop especially around November pricing, where it looks like there is a £50 discount on new crop. As the uncertainty in the cereals markets continue now is the time many are focused on forward cover to eliminate the risk. Especially considering the latest USDA report suggested corn was 2 ½ million short on the expected planting acreage and the majority of the wheat growing area is still in drought.
From a protein perspective the USDA report came in at 91mT soya, a recent record. While this has resulted in a dip in the market this could increase as the focus on US planting and the Argentinian harvest increase. This good news is beginning to flow through to the mid-proteins as well. We are beginning to see crushers looking for interest as the oil price continues to increase and this is opening up opportunities in rape expeller and NovaPro.
As always, make sure you keep an eye on the market for these opportunities and take advantage where you can to ensure you are beginning to forward cover. If at all possible avoid the spot market at the moment.
The latest issue of Feedcast sees Chris Davidson discuss the markets reactions to the war in Ukraine.
Prices are continuing to be in a state of flux and have hit record highs in the majority of all commodity markets. This is due to the concern over the lack of supply coming from the black sea region for the foreseeable future.
Closer to home we are beginning to see more interest in the EU grain supply, however getting quotes on large amounts of material is very challenging. The UK remains focused on feed supply and waiting to see what happens.
Price changes are significant on an hour to hour and day to day basis at present, making buying decisions difficult to stomach but also difficult to predict given prices are higher than ever before. You need to ensure you have secured the material you need and ensure you get it before you need it rather than thinking about price, as getting an offer at the moment is likely to get harder before it gets easier.
Following the developments in Ukraine, KW brings you a Feedcast special. Chris Davidson discusses the potential impacts to the wheat and gas markets and what this could mean to you at this time.
The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson. As usual he brings you updates on the wheat, protein and fibre markets.
A new picture is forming in the wheat markets although this is linked to the outcome of the Russia: Ukraine situation. Here in the UK we have seen enough rain to dispel any drought worry for the new crop and likewise this is the same across the channel in Europe and through to the black sea region. French wheat has now been rated 95% good to excellent which is up 10-12% year on year. However French exports are struggling and Russian exports are also beginning to slow down. This could mean going in to an excellent crop year with 5-10mT of additional wheat. While this is speculative at the moment it could well have a big impact on the supply/demand situation. On the flip side the wheat market is being underpinned by the maize market. This is at risk in South America with Argentinian forecast lowered last week by the USDA and Brazil suffering from rain that is delaying the planting of their second crop. All eyes on the US and what the farmers will plant soya or maize.
In the protein markets we have seen little change. South America remains the main topic of conversation with a potential shortfall of 20mT. As yet this is not reflected in the USDA announcements, but even if it is, will it be believed. This week we are expecting an update on the US planting which will remove attention from South America, there is a suggestion that soya will be better to plant but it is a big if, that that will be the case.
Rape seed continues to follow the soya market, however the rapemeal price has stabilised to around 60% of the soya price meaning there are deals to be done. It is still too early in the season to see what the Australian crop will do to affect the supply and demand dynamics. Distillers are remaining very competitive with Vivergo and Ensus seeing strong demand resulting in price increases.
Finally on a fibre front, prices remain high with soya hulls remaining tight due to distribution issues and sugar beet pricing reflecting the high gas prices.
As always if you need any advice please contact your local KW account manager.
This episode is brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker, as usual they detail the wheat, soya and mid protein markets, offering suggestions on opportunities where they see them.
Despite the volatility in the wheat market we are seeing a downward trend in the wheat futures. This is varying daily but is averaging at around £219, and could result in opportunities, depending on the Russia - Ukraine outcome. Heading in to the new crop weather is looking good across Europe and the Black Sea area resulting in talk of crop levels being increased and this is allowing easing in supply and demand.
This lowering in the wheat futures is making products linked to these attractive, now is a good time to look at biscuit meal, maize meal and maize germ as these prices reflect this dip. It is worth noting we are still looking at premium prices on the physical wheat in the north of the country due to news of Vivergo reopening.
There is a watch out on the US and South American crop levels however. At the moment the weather in the US is very dry and the crop is in dormancy. Likewise Brazil is also suffering from dry conditions and this may result in a lowering of expected tonnes from this region and a tightening of stock. It will be another 4-6 weeks before we know more here.
This El Nina weather system is also affecting soya and as a result the soya market has taken off over the last few weeks increasing by as much as $50. This is a result of the expected crop lowering’s coming from Brazil and Argentina. Based on the latest figures from the region we are expecting Argentinean stocks to hit a 10yr low and likewise Brazilian stocks to hit a 20yr low. This pressure on availability means the market is stuck at these high prices despite the relatively low demand. These prices, this early in the year, can leave you susceptible to falling markets so be careful.
Likewise in the mid-proteins rape is riding the back of this soya high and consequently we are seeing very little purchasing aside from spot as the markets wait for the new crop. However, there is positivity here, as we watch for news of the Vivergo restart. Summer pricing on distillers is very favourable through Vivergo and Ensus depending on where you are in the country.
The fibre market, like all the others it seems, is very tight at the moment. Sugarbeet is sold for the rest of the crop year resulting in very little availability. Whereas soya hull pricing is vary dramatically, although if you can get £220 you will be doing well.
Summing up, stand out opportunities at the moment sit around biscuit meal, maize meal and distillers. Keep watching the markets and if you catch a down day take the opportunity.
Welcome to the first Feedcast episode for 2022. Chris Davidson is with us once again to update you on what has happened over Christmas and give a forward look at the commodities markets.
Over the Christmas break everything has remained bullish, really continuing the general themes around the around world of prices and inflation increasing on most things.
Soya has moved the most over the festive season with El Nina weather continuing to threaten the Argentinian crop, this has resulted in contract highs, which although falling now, could easily go back up with the USDA report due this week. Many market estimates peg Brazil crop being lowered from 144mT to 134mT and Argentinian crop from 49.5mT to 44mT at some point, but whether it is this week, or in future reports appears to the question at the moment. With summer prices at over £400T delivered it doesn’t feel that this will decrease any time soon.
Mid-proteins continue to remain strong with rape seed prices higher than ever. Summer delivered prices for Rapemeal are at circa £330 + and the new crop prices for Aug-Oct £245-260 delivered. These high prices are pushing rape to be removed from the ration and this may result in a levelling out of the supply/demand pressures longer term. Positively, the Vivergo launch is still on track and the prices for March material onwards are looking competitive and give a great opportunity to start building the basket of raw materials for the summer.
From a cereals perspective the fundamentals haven’t changed. Prices could be set to rise in the future as although Australian wheat harvest is looking good the US crop is suffering from drought in the main growing regions of Kansas and Oklahoma. This expected lowering of the wheat outlook means the market is primed for a rally, now is the time to fill any gaps.
There are opportunities in wheat related products such as biscuit meal and bread, however these are likely to sell out quickly. Maize meal is also worth considering at the moment. Don’t forget to get in touch if you want any advice on anything mentioned this week or any help you require with your rations.
Our latest episode of Feedcast addresses the external factors that are affecting the markets at present as well as a quick look at the USDA numbers released this week.
There are three potential factors that could impact the markets at the moment. Firstly, Omicron, while the initial impact of the new strain of corona virus has eased, the thought of new lockdowns could easily cause more uncertainty. Secondly, the military developments in Russia and the Ukraine are being watched closely by the wheat markets, while the potential sanctions on the Nord Stream pipeline have resulted in continued increased gas prices. Finally, US and China relationships are continuing to worsen with the US diplomats being told to not attend the China Olympics. This is having an impact on the soya market as China stops buying US soya, instead favouring Brazil. These external factors mean the markets have moved away from supply and demand economics and require watching very carefully as the volatility across the board remains high.
On top of these external factors the soya market continues to be influenced by the weather. It is predicted that La Nina will affect Argentina through critical growing time and into harvest, this could bring high volatility depending on how the crop performs. The USDA have just increased the Argentinian crop by 5.5m more than the Buenos Aires Exchange, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out if the Buenos Aires Exchange number continues to fall.
The mid Proteins market continues to be strained as the lack of availability of rape seed continues to push prices skywards. While the Vivergo reopening could add a new dimension to these markets, the release of prices for the product in the spring has not affected the markets so far.
Wheat prices are being driven by the USDA release which has seen increases in world production and major exporters numbers. It seems that the slightest news is having an effect of between £4-7 a day. While this makes it hard to know when to take cover, you need to take advantage of any dips you can.
The fibre market has been very quiet this year and supply continues to be very tight with soya hulls struggling to leave Argentina. We are now seeing some opportunities for next summer, this might be worth considering especially with sugar beet prices as high as they are.
As always we recommend you watch these markets very carefully at the moment as the swings could result in opportunity. The most important thing is to ensure you are covered when you need it.
Feedcast will return in the new year and we would like to take this opportunity to say thank you for listening to us and we wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
The latest episode of Feedcast brings you Chris Davidson and James Barker discussing the effects of the latest Covid variant, Omicron on the markets. As well as an expected boost to the mid-protein market come early 2022.
As the latest Covid variant begins to threaten lockdowns and travel restrictions, the markets are reacting to the volatile outlook but seeing prices drop. Obviously the demand is still there, but in this environment supply and demand fundamentals cease to apply, as risk to fund money mean investors start to pull out of the markets.
Wheat for example, recently at a market high of mid £240’s has dropped back down to high £220’s, highlighting the huge volatility in the market, and likewise the majority of commodities have been affected.
Wheat is interesting at the moment due to bearish news from Australia, with the Agricultural department raising their forecast to 34mT. However severe concerns remain around the quality of this wheat due to the late rains they are experiencing. As price is driven by lack of quality milling wheat in the markets, this may not help immediately. We have also seen the EU remove the 25% import tariffs on US maize. This would give them access to a new market and all eyes turn to the UK to see if they will follow suit. This has all resulted in a potential opportunity for wheat right now, but beware as the price may rise again just as rapidly as it fell depending on what happens with the world reaction to Omicron.
The most stable market continues to be soya. While the nearby is still tight, we could see some prices falling due to the early South American crop. US total soya sales are down 30% YoY creating an opportunity here with excess crop available. However, should the dryness continue in South America this could impact the crop and push prices back up as world stocks fall. It is well worth taking cover now if you haven’t done already.
Finally some good news from the Vivergo plant re-opening. This appears to be on track to start producing come early 2022, with prices released this week. The plant can produce up to 300,000T a year and could provide much needed relief to the mid-protein market.
The latest episode of KW Feedcast gives you an overview of the soya, wheat and mid-proteins markets as we move towards Christmas. Brought to you once again by KW raw material expert Chris Davidson.
The soya market, which has been relatively static recently, has started to rise over the last few weeks. Partly this is due to an unexpected decrease in yields announcement from the USDA, unsubstantiated talk of China re-entering the market and increased internal demand.
The South American crop is performing well, with Brazil expected to start an early harvest and beans landing as soon as February in the UK. While this could lower prices, the supply chain issues and tight shipping program can easily lead to higher prices first, as we are seeing now. The most important thing to remember is not to be too exposed.
The grains market continues to rally with the internal US demand for ethanol continuing to push maize prices up. This has flown through to the wheat market, where global stocks remain very tight. Russia are continuing to threaten higher export taxes, Australia is seeing unseasonable rain which is pushing contracts higher and may affect quality and while Argentina seems ok at the moment, the latest election results may result in increased export taxes. Closer to home don’t forget the fertilizer prices and the knock on effect this may have on planting. At the moment it feels that this market could go higher more readily than lower.
Mid-proteins are in a similar boat, rape seed availability is still driving costs higher, and EU seed prices have hit an all-time high. UK rapemeal is cheaper in the South than the North, and ultimately transports further than usual, however logistics remain tough and haulage costs are high.
Vivergo looks set to restart in February and while not confirmed, this could give some well needed relief, filling the gaps in the medium term. Until then Ensus distillers are competitive but there is limited availability.
Summing up, soya remains the best value protein in the short term but it remains a tough market out there. The biggest challenge is getting feed to farm with lead times getting longer and getting haulage harder and harder.