Trade Bites: Recent Episodes
UK Trade Policy Observatory
Trade Bites - the podcast about trade policy. Brought to you by the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex, and presented by Chris Horseman of Borderlex.
In this episode, we're reflecting on the Brexit referendum that happened 10 years ago this month and changed the UK's trade policy trajectory overnight.Our speakers examine how Brexit affected UK trade and UK attitudes to trade, as well as the approach to and the outcomes of autonomous UK trade policy. The discussion also considers the future and where Britain may go next as it navigates a chaotic international policy landscape, and how that positions the UK for the trade policies of the future.Joining our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) are Emily Lydgate (CITP), Ignacio García Bercero (Bruegel), Anand Menon (UK in a Changing Europe) and Allie Renison (SEC Newgate).
In this podcast, we examine the regional dimensions of UK trade policy. Trade affects everyone in every part of the United Kingdom, and the primary responsibility for external trade policy lies with the central UK government in London. However, a lot of the policy areas that are directly affected by trade, most notably agriculture, are controlled by the devolved administrations in Belfast, Cardiff, and Edinburgh. So how does this all fit together? How much say do Northern Ireland and our newly elected devolved governments in Wales and Scotland have over UK trade policy? How does devolution work for trade?To address these questions, are David Barnes (Scottish Government), Alexander Fitzpatrick (QUB / CITP / Wales Governance Centre), Lindsey Garner-Knapp (CITP / University of Sussex), Andrea Begley (Department for the Economy NI) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
What did MC14 deliver for developing countries in Africa? In this episode, His Excellency Geraldo Saranga, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Mozambique to the WTO and His Excellency Ambassador Professor Muhammadou Kah, Ambassador of The Republic of the Gambia to the WTO, share their views on the outcomes of the 2026 WTO Ministerial Conference.To what extent was the MC14 agenda really aligned with African governments' priorities? And what needs to happen to achieve an international trading system which works in the interests of developing countries in Africa?Hosted by Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
The US Government has put tariffs front and centre of its economic policy since Trump's second administration began at the start of last year. After implementing tariffs in April 2025, the US has subsequently raised and lowered tariffs and negotiated exemptions and add-ons for different countries and different sectors. In February this year, the implementation of the ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs was ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court, and a flat rate tariff of 10% was applied under different legal act.In this podcast, we discuss the net result of these past 12 turbulent months, looking at how trade has responded to the tariffs and the potential longer-term effects of tariffs to the world trading system. To address these questions, are Jun Du (Aston Business School / Centre for Business Prosperity), Emanuel Adam (BritishAmerican Business), Tim Figures (Boston Consulting Group) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
President Trump’s keen concern for the US’s substantial trade deficit with the rest of the world played a key role in driving the US tariffs imposed last year, which have disrupted trade and upended the international rules-based trade system. In this episode we ask why is Trump so concerned by a trade deficit, how worried should a country be if it is importing more than it exports, what are the economics that underpin the international trade balance sheet, and how much does it matter? To discuss these questions, are Alasdair Smith (CITP / UKTPO / University of Sussex), Soumaya Keynes (Financial Times), Neil Shearing (Capital Economics) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
In this episode, we look at proposals for the UK to join a customs union with the EU. We clarify what is a customs union and discuss whether could it improve trade between the EU and the UK and boost to our economy, as well as what the EU’s position might be.Providing a clear assessment of the pros and cons of customs union membership between the EU and the UK are Michael Gasiorek (CITP / University of Sussex), Richard Rumbelow (Make UK), Anton Spisak (Centre for European Reform) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
This episode discusses the reset package under negotiation between the UK and the EU. Last May, the two sides agreed to align their regulatory systems in a number of sectors, aimed at minimising friction at the border, and thereby stimulating bilateral trade. It will include regulatory alignment for agriculture and food products, linking of emissions trading schemes, integration of the EU and UK electricity markets, and a youth mobility scheme. The trick is making these outcomes happen through detailed negotiations on regulatory policy. Eight months on from the summit meeting, and with a review of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement set for this year, just how far have we got? How transformative will these negotiations prove to be for cross-channel trade in the affected sectors?With our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex); Emily Lydgate (CITP); Adam Berman (Energy UK); Kate Foster (Federation of Small Businesses).
Critical minerals are ‘critical’ to the manufacture of vital 21st century products as electric vehicles, mobile phones, solar panels, clean technology, and defence equipment. These mineral reserves are also found in considerable quantities outside of non-Western countries. China has been quick off the mark in building out the processing and manufacturing infrastructure that gives them supply chain dominance but creates risks of supply chain weaponisation. To reduce this dependency and risk, the UK, EU, US and others have all developed different approaches to securing access to these supply chains. In this podcast, we explore what some of these approaches are, their pros and cons, and what considerations must inform sustained global cooperation on critical minerals. Joining our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) are Sunayana Sasmal (UKTPO / University of Sussex), Dan Marks (Royal United Services Institute) and Tim Figures (Boston Consulting Group).
In January, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries who opposed his demand to take control of Greenland. Whilst this threat was later dropped, following discussions with NATO SC, what is the role of trade policy in the face of economic coercion?This podcast discusses the use of trade policy instruments in a coercive manner, the issues hanging over EU-US and UK-US trade relations, and where this positions the UK and the international rules-based trading system. Joining our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) are Emily Lydgate (CITP), Allie Renison (SEC Newgate) and David Henig (ECIPE).
This episode of Trade Bites looks at competition and industrial policy. China's strong industrial policies and state-backed dominance have fuelled global competition. Recently, this has led to the US, Europe and developed countries, including the UK, implementing much more activist industrial policies to support their own producers and to ensure supplies of strategically important goods.Is a level playing field a luxury that we can no longer afford in these days of geopolitical contention, or is the pendulum swinging too far away from notions of open competition?To discuss these important points are Aditi Sara Verghese (World Economic Forum), Anne-Claire Hoyng (Prosus), Peter Holmes (UKTPO, University of Sussex) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
In today's episode of Trade Bites, we're discussing the Pan-Euro Mediterranean Convention on Rules of Origin (PEM) and whether the UK should join. The PEM makes it easier for UK firms to use inputs from the PEM countries and still get duty free access to the EU, and all the other PEM countries. Having left the EU, the UK is not part of the PEM. The UK Government has launched a consultation on whether or not the UK should accede. Would joining make trade easier for all our manufacturing businesses, or are there any downsides? Would it really make that much difference? And will other nations support the UK’s application if it does decide to apply to join PEM. It turns out the answers are not so straightforward.Listen to the podcast for straight talking (as opposed to straightforward) explanation with Michael Gasiorek (CITP), Anna Jerzewska (DSV / EuroCommerce), Alessandro Marongiu (SMMT) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
What does the British public think about trade? In a democracy, what people think or feel about any area of policy really matters. Trade policy is an external wing of economic policy, and everyone cares about whether the government's actions are making them richer or poorer, but we also care about how trade is interlinked with climate change, the environment, food standards, or animal welfare.In this episode, our speakers provide insights and analysis on what the public thinks about trade, how we know what the public thinks and whether their views are listened to. With Alan Winters (CITP), George Holt (Trade Justice Movement), Liam Campling (Queen Mary University London) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
In this special extended episode, recorded in front of a live audience at the World Trade Organization Public Forum, we consider the present state of the multilateral trading system and the role of the WTO. The majority of international trade, around 72%, is being conducting on WTO terms. But pretty much every nation has had to face the consequences of a unilateral withdrawal from Most Favoured Nation principals by the world’s biggest economy: the US. This challenge from Washington is only the latest in a string of issues to confront the WTO, which has only ratified two multilateral agreements in 30 years, and hasn’t had a functioning Appellate Body to underpin the enforcement of multilateral trade rules for the last six years. How should WTO members respond? Should the rules be upheld, or do they need changing? To discuss these questions and those from our live audience are H.E Guilherme de Aguiar Patriota (WTO), Kelly Ann Shaw (AKIN), Mona Paulsen (London School of Economics) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
July 20, 2025, is six months since Trump’s inauguration for a second term in the White House. Since then, all previous norms of trade engagement have gone out of the window with the imposition (or threat) of tariffs on goods at rather arbitrary levels and out of line with WTO rules. Almost every supplier country now has its own personalised tariff rate – and some of the world’s least developed countries face the highest tariffs.In this episode, Meredith Crowley (CITP/University of Cambridge), Stephanie Rickard (London School of Economics), Chad Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) discuss what Trump might be trying to achieve with these measures. They also analyse the impact on America’s trading partners – and the global trading system – and how both may react to these challenges from Washington.
In May, Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launched a reset of the EU-UK relationship which included an agreement to begin negotiations on a deal on agri-food standards - an ‘SPS agreement’.The talks offer the prospect of a big reduction in the bureaucratic restrictions that have festooned cross-Channel agri-food trade since Brexit, but there are still a lot of questions about exactly how. In this podcast, Emily Lydgate (CITP, University of Sussex), Alex Carson-Taylor (international trade specialist), Sue Davies (Which?) and our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) discuss the potential limitations inherent in the approach which London and Brussels have embarked on, the pitfalls that the negotiators might need to avoid, what it all means for Northern Ireland trade and the prospects for agri-food deals with other countries.
Last month, Britain thus became the first trade partner to do a deal with the new Trump administration. The deal was limited in its scope - but nevertheless highly significant, given that Trump has hitherto been keener on imposing tariffs than removing them. Britain won some exemptions from new US tariffs on cars and steel, while the US will be granted new access to the UK’s agricultural markets. And there will be more to come in other sectors. Is this the start of a whole new economic relationship between the UK and the US. To discuss the pros and cons of the deal and what this means for other countries are Emily Lydgate (CITP/UKTPO, University of Sussex), Chris Southworth (ICC United Kingdom), Dmitry Grozoubinski (ExplainTrade), and hosted by Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
Steel is needed to manufacture everything from aircraft carriers to ironing boards. It is critical for construction and defence and contributes significantly to the national economy. But many countries can produce steel much more cheaply than the UK – notably China, which accounts for more than 50% of global steel production. Plus, the market is distorted by many factors, notably Chinese state production subsidies and US tariffs on imports and then there is the impact of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms on production and global supply chains. Where does this leave British Steel? To what extent should the UK government protect its steel sector in the interests of strategic autonomy, and of keeping the industry afloat? And do recent UK trade agreements make any material difference to our ability to buy and sell steel?Joining our host, Chris Horseman (Borderlex), to unpack this are Chrysa Glystra (UK Steel) and Mattia Di Ubaldo (CITP/University of Sussex).
The US has re-set its tariffs on goods imports according to a formula based on the size of that country’s trade surplus with the US – a move which has thrown all previous norms out the window.We are no longer in a world where tariffs and other aspects of trade policy are negotiated multilaterally – with the World Trade Organization as chief overseer.So where do recent developments leave the global trading system? Is the WTO, and the rules-based system that it oversees, now dead? Joining our host, Chris Horseman (Borderlex), to discuss these issues are Jennifer Hillman (Georgetown University Law Center), L. Alan Winters (CITP/ University of Sussex) and Farisa Zarin (Standard Chartered Bank).
This podcast looks at the recently concluded UK-India free trade agreement deal and the impact for UK exporters now that India’s high tariffs on goods like cars and Scotch whisky will be reduced, and that British businesses will be able to bid for some Indian government contracts for the first time. For India, the UK will remove most of its tariffs on Indian goods, and it will be a little easier for Indian professionals to come and work in Britain.But who gets the better deal out of this agreement? What are the political, economic and social implications of the deal for each party? And given the rather chaotic state of international trade at present, will the UK-India deal perhaps be part of a new wave of agreements to shore up existing bilateral trade flows? Joining Chris Horseman are Amrita Saha (IDS/University of Sussex), Abhijit Das (independent trade policy expert/former Centre for WTO Studies), Achyuth Anil (CITP/University of Sussex) and Emily Weaver Roads (Scotch Whisky Association).
When long-established international trade flows get disrupted, it's not always easy to predict the consequences. Given the adjustments that the UK is continuing to have to make as a result of leaving the EU single market a few years ago, and now President Trump’s global 25% tariff surcharge on imports of cars and components, the challenges are starting to pile up for Britain's automotive sector. How will exporters be affected by Trump’s tariffs, how should the British Government and British carmakers respond and what are the prospects for deepening and expanding trade with other countries around the world, especially in regards to raw materials? Joining our host, Chris Horseman (Borderlex), to discuss these issues are Emanuel Adam (British American Business), Ian Henry (AutoAnalysis) and Richard Gard (Nissan).
The real growth area for trade is in digitally-delivered services. But where there is trade, there is trade regulation. If countries regulate in ways which diverge from each other, then there are digital borders. This podcast discusses how a more streamlined and efficient digital trade environment could be created, why different countries have different regulations, and the prospects of a digital trade deal between the UK and US.Joining our presenter, Chris Horseman are: •Javier Ruiz Diaz, a freelance digital policy consultant•Anupam Chander, the Scott K. Ginsburg Professor of Law and Technology at Georgetown University in Washington D.C.•Lorna Woods, Professor of Internet Law at the University of Essex
There are now twelve new style freeports in the UK, set up under the previous Conservative government which was convinced that freeports would represent a major Brexit dividend for Britain. There are also eight regional investment zones in the UK with the promise of more to come.This podcast puts investment zones and freeports under an analytical lens to determine what they are and how they work. It investigates whether they make sense as a way of kick-starting economic activity and driving trade-based growth or whether we should be concerned about the idea of favouring some regions of the country over others; and is there any evidence that these investment zones and freeports are actually making a positive difference? Joining our host Chris Horseman (Borderlex) are Steve Fothergill (Industrial Communities Alliance/Sheffield Hallam University), Peter Holmes (University of Sussex/UKTPO), Anna Jerzewska (Trade & Borders) and Kevin McKenzie (Plymouth City Council).
Industrial policy is coming to dominate the global trade landscape and is massively important in political and economic terms as well. Today, as the world becomes a more geopolitically fractured place, governments are taking a very close interest in their manufacturing sectors to ensure they are attracting the investment that will allow them to hold the keys to a green economy of the future. It's a big shift away from the concept of a global open marketplace which for so many years seemed to be the direction of travel. But is it sustainable, how much help does industry need to be able to produce the things that people want to buy, and where do we draw the line between investing in national economic security and good old-fashioned protectionism?Joining Chris Horseman (Borderlex) are Minako Morita-Jaeger (CITP) and Allie Renison (SEC Newgate).
Next week, Americans will go to the polls and a new President will be elected. This podcast looks at the trade policy proposal of one candidate, the Republican Donald Trump, to put flat-rate tariffs of up to 20% on all US imports and a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.What would the impact be on US businesses and consumers? Which sectors are set to be most affected? What would such tariffs mean for transatlantic and global trade? Do they have popular support in the US?Providing forensic insight into all these questions are Nicolò Tamberi (CITP) and Rodney Ludema (Georgetown University), together with our host Chris Horseman.
The Labour Party promised to re-set the relationship between the UK and the EU. Now that it’s been in government for a few months - what has changed? With the new government seeing opportunities in working more collaboratively with its EU partners – on defence and security, but also on the nuts and bolts of our trade relationship - there’s undoubtedly been a change of tone.Our panellists on this podcast discuss whether the UK’s agenda for closer trade ties with the EU is realistic, consider the EU’s position and appetite for trade negotiations with the UK and analyse the political commitments that will be required on both sides.Joining Chris Horseman on this episode are David Henig (ECIPE), Viviane Gravey (Queen’s University Belfast/CITP) and Ignacio Garcia Bercero (Bruegel/European Commission).
Trade professionals at the WTO Public Forum provide their thoughts on one of the big issues confronting trade policy – inclusiveness. How can we ensure that the benefits and economic gains of international trade are shared as widely and as fully as possible? Does the WTO function in a way that benefits developing countries as much as richer countries? Listen to contributions from a wide range of individuals including Ralph Ossa, WTO: Anabel Gonzalez, IDB; Tahira Nasim, Scottish Development International; and more…
‘En direct’ from the World Trade Organisation Public Forum 2024, this podcast focuses on the WTO’s decision-making process. Responsible consensus was a phrase first coined after the Ministerial Meeting in Abu Dhabi earlier this year, due to impasse on a number of issues. The organisations’ rules make it clear that nothing can be agreed unless there is consensus among all members. But what does it mean if one country, or a small group of countries, block an agreement which is supported by most of the other 166 WTO members? Is this the fault of the majority for failing to bring the dissenting states along with them? Tackling this difficult area where arcane questions of WTO procedure collide with raw geopolitics are special guests; H.E. Mr Tan Hung Seng, Ambassador of Singapore; Gabrielle Marceau, Professor at the University of Geneva and Senior Counsellor in the Research Division (ERSD) of the WTO Secretariat; Abhijit Das, International trade expert and independent researcher; and Professor Andrew Lang, Edinburgh School of Law with our host Chris Horseman, Borderlex.
The WTO’s track record in updating the global trade rules that came into effect in the mid-1990s is not particularly impressive. How can the WTO be made to function better without losing its cherished status as a member-driven organization that works on the basis of consensus? The WTO’s General Council is currently grappling with the issue of how to reform the organization to make it easier to conclude new agreements and resolve disputes on the implementation of existing ones.Ahead of the WTO Public Forum next week, Chris Horseman sat down with the current chair of the General Council, Ambassador Petter Ølberg of Norway, to talk about the reforms that are needed – and the prospects of reaching an agreement to keep the organization relevant - and why he needs Taylor Swift on his side!
Critical Raw Materials is the topic for this episode and looks at why they have become such an important part of our trade policy discussions. The conversation explores how to ensure that our trade policies enable a flow of these critical raw materials to the industries that need them; and whether we should be concerned that the increasingly fraught geopolitical situation might create serious problems for the emergence of a new lower carbon economy. Joining Chris Horseman on this episode are Sunayana Sasmal (University of Sussex/UKTPO), Tom Moerenhout (Columbia University) and Laura Kelly (IIED).
In this episode, we look at trade ‘mini deals’. There is a plethora of international agreements out there that focus on a particular area of trade such as mutual recognition agreements. Should governments be doing more of these deals rather than the big comprehensive free trade agreements and what do they contribute to global trade?In discussion with Chris Horseman (Borderlex) are Lucian Cernat (European Commission), Katherine Claussen (Georgetown University) and Mattia di Ubaldo (CITP).
Professor Alan Winters reflects on 50 years as a trade policy expert. Having retired at the end of May, Alan’s long and distinguished career in Economics includes Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP), Founding Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, stints at the World Bank and as a Chief Economist for a UK Government department, and of course, academia. A lot has happened in 50 years, now, at a critical moment in the evolution of the UK's trade policy, Professor L. Alan Winters reflects on his long career in an ever-changing trade policy environment with Chris Horseman (Borderlex) and also looks at what the key issues might likely be over the next 5-10 years.
In this episode, we discuss Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM): a trade measure that puts a price on the carbon emitted during the production of carbon intensive goods that are entering a country or economic area to encourage cleaner industrial production in those countries and to match the charges domestic producers have to pay for their emissions. The EU already has a CBAM and now the UK is proposing to follow the EU and introduce its own CBAM. How will the UK CBAM work in practice? Will it reduce global greenhouse emissions? And, will the UK meet its objective by having a CBAM up and running by 2027? Joining Chris Horseman (Borderlex) on this podcast are Emily Lydgate (CITP), Chiara Forlati (University of Southampton), Max Mendez- Parra (ODI) and Dongzhe Zhang (CITP).
The concept of ‘economic security’ is now a prominent feature in discussions about trade policy as recent geopolitical developments have indicated that we need to think carefully about our trade partners. In addition, net zero targets mean that we need to access the raw materials to make these products – a high proportion of which are located in non-allied countries.This podcast looks at whether we should restrict our trade to countries on whom we can rely on, and who share similar values to us and what we can do if other nations make life difficult for our traders, or take a suspiciously close interest in our own strategically important industries.Joining Chris Horseman (Borderlex) for this discussion are Amar Breckenridge (Frontier Economics), Iana Dreyer (Borderlex) and Michael Gasiorek (CITP).
Later in 2024, the UK will join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership bringing a whole new meaning to the expression ‘regional trade agreement’. The British government has made no secret of its enthusiasm for what it calls a ‘strategic pivot’ towards the Asia-Pacific region. But, does it make sense for the UK which has just withdrawn from one trade bloc right on its doorstep, to join another which is centred on the other side of the world? What benefits might we expect UK membership of CPTPP to deliver? How might CPTPP evolve in future?Joining Chris Horseman (Borderlex) to discuss this topic are Minako Morita-Jaeger (CITP), Rob Cook (Department for Business and Trade) and Manuel Tong Koecklin (CITP/UKTPO).
For three years after Britain left the single market, the UK has effectively operated an 'open door' policy on imports from the EU. Five times the government announced the introduction of border controls on imports from the EU – and five times they were postponed for various operational and logistical reasons. But now it’s finally happening. So how will the new Border Target Operating Model, or BTOM, actually work?Anna Doherty (Institute of Exports and International Trade) and William Bain (British Chambers of Commerce) discuss the ins and outs with Chris Horseman (Borderlex):Is the new regime of border checks on higher-risk agri-food products actually compatible with the high-volume, roll-on roll-off trade that flows through Dover and the Channel Tunnel? Will the new regime lead to delays and increased costs? Or should traders, who have now had more than three years to prepare, be ready for the new reality?
The UK has a long history as an agricultural trading nation. For much of our existence, we’ve been a net importer of food, creating a free trade economics 'virtue' out of the necessity of needing to feed ourselves. But calibrating a well-balanced trade policy for agriculture and food is a notoriously difficult thing to do. When we were part of the EU, UK commentators often criticised Brussels for being excessively protectionist. The UK is now a free agent, in trade policy terms. So just how much has actually changed? Have we actually adopted a liberal agri-food trade policy? Brexit has created new bureaucratic barriers to trade. What impact are these actually having on UK food importers and exporters? And what difference will the UK’s new trade agreements with partners around the world actually make to the economics of producing and selling food here in the UK? Fiona Smith (University of Leeds) Ludivine Petetin (CITP) and Nick von Westenholz (NFU) tackle these questions from our presenter, Chris Horseman (Borderlex).
This episode of the Trade Bites podcast scrutinizes the topic of trade agreement scrutiny. In addition to the ratification of the UK's accession to the Asia Pacific Trade Block (CPTPP) earlier this month, there are at least seven new UK Free Trade Agreements currently under negotiation. How do we know that the trade policy decisions that the Government is taking on our behalf are the right ones? Alan Winters (CITP), Alan Ramsey (Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland), Alex Horne (Barrister and Durham University) and Mairi Spowage (CITP) discuss whether the Government is delivering value and if they got their priorities right; what level of involvement should there be for the UK's devolved administrations and other stakeholders?; and ultimately, how could the process be more inclusive?
The World Trade Organization's thirteenth ministerial conference (MC13) took place in the last week of February. Trade ministers from around the world met to take key decisions on the regulation of international trade. But they didn’t actually decide on very much.Is the WTO now in a state of crisis? What’s the point of an organisation that can’t seem to decide on anything much? What needs to change? Should we perhaps blame the governments who need to make the compromises without which international agreements can’t happen?Dmitry Grozoubinski (Explain Trade), George Riddell (EY) and Ana Soares Peres (University of Sussex/UKTPO) tackle these questions from our presenter, Chris Horseman (Borderlex)#trade #WTO #MC13
Just over three years since we left the EU single market, what has been the trade impact of Brexit? British exporters and importers trading with the EU have faced a whole new regulatory environment. Has Brexit led to shifts in the UK’s trade patterns – a pivot towards other parts of the world? Or does the gravity model beloved of trade economists still hold true? Has the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (the TCA) proven to be a satisfactory framework for EU-UK trade? And, with elections happening in both the EU and the UK later this year, might we see any kind of movement towards changes in the TCA over the next few years?'Hosted by Chris Horseman, with Nicolo Tamberi (CITP), Emily Fry (Resolution Foundation) and John Springford (CER)
Over the past 40 years or so, exporters have got used to the idea that the whole world is their marketplace – a notion which has been encouraged through moves by governments around the world to reduce tariffs and other barriers to trade. But with global pandemics, trade wars, fuel crises and over the past few years – could it be that the process of globalisation might be moving into reverse? “Near-shoring” is the idea that in today’s increasingly problematic global trading environment, you might be better off buying and selling in markets which are more nearby, and hence less fraught with risk. This episode looks at whether this phenomenon actually happening, how prevalent it is and what is causing it. Joining Chris Horseman are Dr Alessandro Borin, Bank of Italy; Professor Maria Savona, University of Sussex and LUISS in Rome; and Dr Camilla Jensen, UK Trade Policy Observatory.
In our latest podcast we look at how the United Kingdom is getting on with its most significant trade relationship, that with its biggest trading partner the European Union. Over 18 months since the UK finally left the EU’s Single Market and went ahead with the version of Brexit favoured by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his team, questions are being asked about Britain’s post-Brexit journey. Economic data suggests that the UK’s economy is growing less rapidly than most other G20 countries, and diplomatic relations between the EU and the UK continue to be frosty amidst ongoing disagreements over the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Many do not realise that the EU-UK relationship is not set in stone. The review clause of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement means that within a couple of years, the arguments about what sort of relationship the UK wants with the EU will be right back on the table. But how well prepared is the UK to reopen those debates about alignment versus divergence, and sovereignty versus market access? Does the upcoming review create the opportunity for something better – or does it entail the threat of something worse?
To give us their considered opinions on all this, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Peter Holmes, Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex, Georgina Wright, Senior Fellow and Director of the European Programme at the Institut Montaigne in Paris, as well as two distinguished former director generals at the European Commission, Sir Michael Leigh, now Academic Director of the European Public Policy Masters course at John Hopkins University, and Sir Jonathan Faull, current Chair of European Public Affairs at the Brunswick Group.
Global supply chains have barely left the headlines in recent years. It is a fact of modern life that many of the goods we consume have multiple components manufactured in different places at different times which somehow come together to create the finished article. Yet global supply chains have started to come under pressure from a series of shocks ranging from the geopolitical to the environmental. From baby formula to cars, when consumers face shortages supply chains become part of everyday vocabulary. Besides the recent dislocations caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, there are inherent political, technical and ethical dimensions to supply chains themselves and how they function. How could life be made easier for manufacturers of complex goods with complex supply chains? Have supply chains and globalisation become too complex? Will we ever get back to those days where we won’t hear the phrase “we can’t get the parts” as often as we do today? To answer these questions and more Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Sam Roscoe, Research Fellow at the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex Business School, Dr Chad P. Bown, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the US, and Dr Chul Chung, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
It has been over a year since the UK signed its single most important post-Brexit trade instrument – the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU – establishing a framework for the UK relationship with the EU in a wide range of areas. In this episode, we consider the full year of data now available for EU-UK trade in goods in 2021 and assess the impact of the Agreement. Bearing in mind that Covid-19 has ensured that everything has been but business as usual, clear trends are starting to emerge and questions are starting to be asked as to exactly what’s happening and why?
Why have the 70-mile queues outside the port of Dover, which the Government postulated in 2020 as a reasonable worst case scenario, failed to materialise? Why has the UK failed so far to impose a full range of checks on goods coming into the UK and what might happen once they start to do so? And how have businesses by and large coped with the extra bureaucracy which being outside of the EU single market has entailed?
To discuss all of these issues and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Professor Michael Gasiorek, Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, Emily Rees, Founder of Trade Strategies and Senior Fellow at the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, Peter Foster, Public Policy Editor of The Financial Times and author of the ‘Britain after Brexit’ newsletter, and William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce.
The UK signed a bilateral Free Trade Agreement with Australia in December 2021. This is the first ‘new’ Free Trade Agreement (FTA) the UK has negotiated with a trade partner. This ‘world-class’ agreement marks a ‘landmark moment in the historic and vital relationship between our two Commonwealth nations’, according to the international trade secretary, Anne-Marie Trevelyan.
It’s certainly an ambitious Agreement, for one thing it will remove practically all tariff protection for imports of agricultural products – something which the EU would be very unlikely to have countenanced. But what does the agreement deliver in other areas, like services, government procurement, climate protection or digital trade? Furthermore, the Agreement is potentially an important benchmark for future trade negotiations, notably the ongoing application by the UK for accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), so how does it fair in terms of broader trade relations?
To make their assessments of the new agreement, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Emily Lydgate, Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, Dr Minako Morita-Jaeger, Senior Research Fellow in International Trade at the University of Sussex, and Policy Research Fellow at the UK Trade Policy Observatory with special guest, Professor Peter Draper, Executive Director of the Institute for International Trade at the University of Adelaide.
This episode looks at the climate crisis, and specifically the trade policy response to the push towards net zero in Europe and around the world. A whole market infrastructure has been created in Europe and elsewhere with carbon emission allowances being bought and sold as a way of taxing high-emission producers and providing a financial incentive to encourage more climate-friendly production systems. However, some countries worry that heavy industry might relocate because their climate regulation makes it too expensive to operate. This could be bad for global climate action, as it will result in more greenhouse gas emissions in less regulated countries – a problem called Carbon Leakage.
The European Commission’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to address Carbon Leakage by requiring (for certain products) both imported and domestic products to pay the same carbon price. How will it work? Is it compatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization? And, should the UK have its own version?
Dr Ioannis Zachariadis, Policy Officer at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Taxation and the Customs Union joins Chris Horseman and Dr Emily Lydgate, Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, along with Dr Camilla Jensen, and Dr Peter Holmes, both Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory
Who are the ultimate stakeholders in UK trade policy? And how much of a say do they actually have in the policies that ultimately govern us?
Things have certainly moved on since the time, not that long ago, when European and American negotiators would disappear into a room to talk about a Transatlantic trade deal – and come out again giving virtually no information about what they’d been talking about. These days, most governments try a lot harder to be transparent about their trade objectives, and to give their stakeholders at least some input into the process.
But as the UK government settles into its own post-Brexit trade policy, has it learnt good or bad habits from its neighbours and partners? How is Britain doing in its quest to establish a trade policy which is inclusive? And when our trade diplomats negotiate deals on our behalf – are they truly reflecting our interests and our objectives?
Chris Horseman is joined by Professor L. Alan Winters, Founding Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Ruth Bergan, Senior Advisor at the Trade Justice Movement; and Professor Daniel Wincott, Blackwell Professor of Law and Society at the University of Cardiff.
Supply chain issues crashed onto the front pages in the UK this year when petrol stations started running out of fuel. But that was just one aspect of a wider problem. A surge in demand for consumer goods has led to soaring shipping costs, with ships queueing up to get into container ports, and mounting concerns as to whether even Santa will be able to get his presents to us in time for Christmas. But we’re also facing shortages of personnel. Goods can’t get from one to place to another if there’s no-one who can drive the lorry, or if there is no-one who is qualified to sign the necessary certificates for the goods on the back of the truck. The pandemic certainly has a lot to answer for. But, as always in trade policy discussions, the extent to which Brexit is exacerbating, underlying or even causing the problems in the UK is a hot topic of debate.
To discuss all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Sam Roscoe and Dr Peter Holmes of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, and Harry Holmes, Features Editor at The Grocer.
In this episode, we’re heading stateside as we take a closer look at the trade relationship between the UK and the United States. In one sense, it’s a relationship that only came into existence when Britain finally left the EU customs union at the end of last year. But that belies the fact that the United States is the UK’s biggest single trading partner, and London has duly inherited most of the trade policy issues which previously exercised Washington and Brussels, and for the most part still do. So how are the post-Brexit UK, and the post-Trump US, getting on trade-wise?
Chris Horseman is joined by Peter Holmes, Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Marianne Petsinger, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House; and Marc Busch, Karl Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.
As the world’s second most populous country, India is an emerging player in global trade, and of course it has deep historical and cultural ties with Britain. In recent times, India has acquired a bit of a reputation as being part of the awkward squad within the international trade community. The received wisdom was that New Delhi wasn’t interested in negotiating trade deals with other countries, or in joining regional trade agreements.
But there are signs that this may be changing. India has sounded enthusiastic about the idea of a trade deal with the UK, perhaps in response to growing fears about the impact of China’s emergence as a trade superpower in the Asian region, or perhaps because it senses opportunities to benefit from Britain’s new status outside of the EU. So what are the prospects for UK-India trade? What’s India’s game plan, and how likely is it that it will achieve its objectives?
Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Mattia Di Ubaldo, Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Dr Amrita Saha, Research Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies; and Professor Abhijit Das, Head of the Centre For WTO Studies at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
Part of the United Kingdom, but effectively within the EU single market, but still part of the UK’s customs territory – you’d be forgiven for feeling a little confused about just how Northern Ireland fits into things these days.
The problem is that if Northern Ireland remains part of the EU single market, then the EU wants to make sure that anything that enters that single market is compliant with its own rules - even if that stuff comes from Great Britain, which is part of the same country as Northern Ireland. All of which creates a very interesting problem – unless of course you are one of the thousands of businesses involved in trying to move goods to and from Northern Ireland, in which case “interesting” is probably not the adjective you’d choose to use. So what are the next steps in the evolving saga? How did we get into this situation, and, more relevantly, how do we find solutions to the current problems?
Chris Horseman is joined by Michael Gasiorek, Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Katy Hayward, Professor of Political Sociology at Queen’s University Belfast, and senior fellow of the ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ thinktank; and Aodhan Connolly, Director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium, and International Trade Advisor to the British Retail Consortium.
Traditional types of trade are regulated by the World Trade Organisation, under rules which mostly date from 1995 – a time when data exchanges were accompanied by the screech of a modem, and were measured in kilobytes. So it’s perhaps not surprising that there are no meaningful global rules in place at the moment to regulate digital trade. But increasingly, as regional trade deals become more common, frameworks are starting to emerge to provide more legal and commercial certainty for those businesses which trade in cyberspace. But what happens when different jurisdictions have rules which aren’t compatible with each other? And how can we be sure that digital trade is regulated in a way which is fair for all?
To discuss all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Ingo Borchert, Senior Lecturer at the University of Sussex and Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Eunice Huang, Head of Trade Policy for the Asia-Pacific region at Google; and Johannes Fritz, CEO of the Swiss-based Sankt Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade.
This podcast is co-organised in collaboration with the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Trade and Investment.
Up until the end of last year, the UK was part of the EU single market, and British traders had enjoyed frictionless trade with Europe for several decades. But all of that has now changed. Customs formalities are a fact of life, with paperwork to be filled in whether you’re sending a lorry load of precision tools to a factory in Germany, or a few jars of Marmite to your auntie on the Costa Del Sol. Add to that the complexities of rules of origin for manufactured and processed goods, and the particularly onerous rules which now apply on EU imports of agri-food products, and life is suddenly looking a lot tougher for UK exporters. But to what extent do these issues represent teething problems which can be overcome in due course? What could or should the government be doing to make life easier for exporting businesses? And how are British firms coping with the new challenges that they face?
Chris Horseman is joined by Michael Gasiorek, Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Anna Jerzewska, Director of the Trade and Borders Consultancy, and Associate Fellow of the UKTPO; and Ian Henry, Owner and Managing Director of AutoAnalysis and Visiting Professor at the Centre for Brexit Studies.
Disagreements over fisheries nearly sunk last year’s trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. A deal was eventually signed, which repatriated some - but not all - of the fish resources in UK waters back to UK control. However, despite leaving the EU’s Common Fisheries policy behind, the deal left many in the fishing community somewhat underwhelmed. But what exactly has been agreed? Was it ever realistic to expect a better deal? And were we so preoccupied with establishing our rights to catch fish, that we forgot about the question of how we were going to sell them once they were landed?
To tackle all these questions and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Professor Michael Gasiorek, Director of the UKTPO; Barrie Deas, Chief Executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisations; and Suzannah Walmsley, Principal Consultant and Fisheries and Aquaculture Business Development Manager at ABPmer.
In the 21st century, international trade has almost universal scope, and the UK, like other developed countries, trades with pretty much every other country on earth, including those with some pretty repressive regimes in charge. So how can we shape international trade in a way which encourages our trading partners to uphold certain basic standards, and sanctions them effectively if they don’t? And to what extent is it realistic to expect that trade policy could be used as a tool for improving human rights standards in other countries?
In this episode, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Mattia Di Ubaldo, Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Dr Samantha Velluti, Reader at the Sussex Law School, and an expert on EU law and policy; and Dr Jennifer Zerk, Associate Fellow of the International Law Programme at Chatham House.
The government has promised to create at least 10 freeports up and down the country, as a key strand of its new post-Brexit trade and industrial policy. There has been a bidding process for sea ports and airports to convert to freeport status, with the deadline for bids expiring on February 5th. But what actually is a freeport? What can you do in them that you can’t do in a non-free port? Enthusiasts for the scheme see freeports as a way of stimulating trade by minimising taxes and red tape, and creating employment in deprived coastal areas. Detractors, on the other hand, are less enthusiastic, citing problems which other freeports around the world have faced with smuggling and other nefarious activities. So are freeports a creative answer to the economic challenges of 21st century Britain, or more of a step back into Jack Sparrow territory?
Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Peter Holmes, Fellow of the UKTPO; Edward Farmer, Managing Director of the UK Free Trade Zone Association; and Paul Swinney, Director of Policy and Research at the Centre for Cities.
The UK’s Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU came into force on New Year's Day. Since then, the focus has mainly been on the border issues, with supermarket supplies running short in a few areas, and lorry drivers’ ham sandwiches being confiscated by Dutch customs officials. But while the UK’s Michael Gove always said there would be ‘bumps in the road’ to begin with, where will the TCA deal ultimately lead us? What sort of an agreement is it, and could it yet be improved upon? And what will it mean for UK businesses which have dealings with the EU?
To discuss all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Professor Alan Winters, Jill Rutter and Iana Dreyer.
This episode examines the question of food standards and how they will affect Britain’s post-Brexit international trade. As the UK leaves the EU, will we be diverging from the European food standards that have applied in Britain for the last few decades? What would be the benefit of diverging? What might be the risks of not diverging? And do the Americans really want to poison us as a core objective of their current free trade agreement negotiations – as you might be led to believe from some recent media headlines?
Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Emily Lydgate, David Henig and Professor Fiona Smith .
Since the Brexit referendum, the trade policy focus has been primarily about how UK businesses will trade with their counterparts in the EU and around the world. But what about intra-UK trade? Surely it stands to reason that there won’t be any problem for a business in England to trade with a business in Scotland? However, closer examination shows that when you strip away the legal framework provided by EU membership, and simultaneously devolve regulatory powers to the administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, some rather unexpected problems can result. The UK Internal Market Bill, currently making its way through Parliament, forms part of the Government’s response to these challenges. But will it solve the problems, or simply exacerbate them?
To discuss all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Emily Lydgate, George Peretz QC and Professor Graeme Roy.
The UK imports around twenty-five billion pounds’ worth of pharmaceutical products each year from a wide range of supplier countries. Even during the worst phases of this year’s COVID-19 crisis, we have not run short of essential drugs. But how confident can we be that such a disaster would never happen? Are too many of our pharmaceutical eggs in one basket? What role is there for public policy and trade policy in ensuring that our pharma supply strategy is the right one? And how might Brexit complicate things? Chris Horseman is joined by UKTPO fellow Dr Sam Roscoe and Dr Richard Torbett, chief executive of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry.
Britain left the EU on 31 January 2020. But for the time being, hardly anything has changed in terms of the country’s trade with Europe. We’re in a transition period which will run until the end of the year, and during that period the UK needs to negotiate a whole new trading relationship with the EU. But is that period going to be long enough to get everything sorted out? There is an option to extend the transition period, but what difference would that actually make? And how might the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the negotiations?
Chris Horseman is joined by Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UKTPO; and Sam Lowe, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform.
COVID-19 has had a profound effect on trade. A global recession is always going to have an impact on trade volumes, but this pandemic has had the effect of completely choking off demand for some goods and services, while pushing demand for others through the roof. And that has posed acute trade policy challenges. Is it ever right to impose controls on exports of sensitive products? Were we naive to put so much faith in global markets and our ability to source the goods and services we need from around the world? And when the pandemic finally starts to ease, what sort of a global trading system will we be left with?
To discuss all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; Allie Renison, Head of EU and Trade Policy at the Institute of Directors; and Simon Evenett, Professor of Economics and an Associate Fellow of the UKTPO.
Trade in services is generally reckoned to account for about 80% of the UK economy. The UK financial services sector alone makes a contribution to the economy that is worth the equivalent of the entire GDP or Bulgaria and Croatia combined. So why do we hear so little about services in the context of the trade negotiations that are just getting underway with the EU and the US? Is the UK missing a trick?
In the final episode of this series, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Ingo Borchert, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Assistant in the Economics of Brexit at the UKTPO; and Sebastian Benz, Policy Analyst and Economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
For many people, the idea that the National Health Service may be ‘up for sale’ in the UK’s upcoming international trade negotiations is a cause of great anxiety. But what does that phrase even mean? The NHS offers a massive range of services, from brain surgery to cleaning the hospital windows. So if any of these services are subcontracted, who is allowed to bid for them? To what extent do health care services form part of the discussions in international trade negotiations, such as the one the UK has recently commenced with the US? And are there international rules about what can, or should, or may not be on the table?
To get to grips with these important questions, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Ingo Borchert, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; and Laura Bannister, Senior Adviser at the Trade Justice Movement.
For the past few years, the United States and China have been at each other’s throats, with the Trump administration slapping a series of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports and Beijing responding with its own retaliatory measures. The US accuses China of not playing fair when it comes to global trade. So what is it that China has done to incur the wrath of the White House? What lies behind the tensions between Washington and Beijing? And why should Europe care about what is going on? Are there opportunities that UK businesses could exploit, or will they just get caught in the crossfire?
To explore the specifics of these trade tensions, Chris Horseman is joined by Jim Rollo, Deputy Director of the UKTPO and Associate Fellow of Chatham House; and Steven McGuire, Dean of the University of Sussex Business School and Fellow of the UKTPO.
Back in early February, the Department for International Trade announced that it was seeking the views of stakeholders on what sort of tariffs the UK should apply on its imports of goods. As an EU member, the UK applied the same tariffs as the rest of the EU, but as from next year it can do what it likes tariff-wise. So is this a chance for ‘Global Britain’ to tear away the protectionist trappings of the EU and embrace the free market at last? Or might Britain’s manufacturing and agricultural industries want to retain some tariff protection against cheaper imports from overseas? And how do UK import tariffs actually affect businesses, consumers and the UK economy?
To offer their views on all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Julia Magntorn Garrett, Rodney Ludema, Allie Renison, and Sue Davies.
After almost half a century as an EU member state, the UK is about to become an autonomous member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). For some, this represents an exciting opportunity. But what is the value of WTO membership? And given the multiple challenges that the rules-based trading system is facing at present, can Britain be a force for good in securing a more reliable trading environment?
To explore all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Minako Morita-Jaeger, Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Patrick Low, Former Chief of Staff and Chief Economist at the WTO, and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; and Amar Breckenridge, Senior Associate at Frontier Economics.
The question of the Irish border has been one of the most contentious issues in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU. Boris Johnson has claimed that his Brexit deal is the best of all worlds, maintaining frictionless trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic, and Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. But is this case? What does the settlement reached in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement actually mean for trade between Great Britain, Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic and the rest of the EU?
To unravel these issues, Chris Horseman is joined by L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO; Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; and John Campbell, BBC Northern Ireland’s Business and Economics Editor.
Now that the UK has left the European Union, the Government has promised to complete a whole string of Free Trade Agreements with the EU, the United States, and various other trading partners around the world. But is there a catch to doing these negotiations? Are there trade-offs involved - and what are they likely to be? And how easy will it be to work towards a closer trade relationship with the rest of the world, while still in the process of disengaging from the EU?
Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Emily Lydgate, Dr Anna Jerzewska, Maddy Thimont Jack, and Dr Holger Hestermeyer to unravel these complex questions.
Boris Johnson promised to ‘get Brexit done’ when he won the UK General Election in December 2019 - and on one level he achieved that aim on 31 January. However, there is still much to be decided as the UK begins the process of disengaging from the EU. Can a Free Trade Agreement between the two sides be achieved by the transition deadline of 31 December? What happens if a deal can’t be struck? Does a Brexit cliff-edge loom once more?
Chris Horseman is joined by Peter Holmes, Anand Menon and Fabian Zuleeg to explore what is still on the agenda in the months and years ahead.
As the UK enters the post-Brexit transition period, Boris Johnson has made clear that a trade deal with the US is as big a priority, if not more so, than a deal with the EU. But are Britain and America natural trade partners? What benefits could a transatlantic trade deal deliver? And what about chlorinated chicken?
To discuss all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; Sir Jonathan Faull, Chair of European Public Affairs for the Brunswick Group and Fellow of the UKTPO; Iana Dreyer, Founder and Editor of Borderlex; and Alan Beattie, Senior Trade Writer for the Financial Times and Associate Fellow of Chatham House.