Eurizon's podcast: Recent Episodes
EURIZON
Markets, geopolitics, fiscal and monetary policy, our positioning, our commitment to sustainable and responsible investment, and topical themes in the spotlight. Listen to our experts’ analyses to navigate investment and the themes that will influence our future. “The Globe” explains our monthly positioning and focuses on the asset classes in the limelight, while every Monday “Eurizon Weekly” offers a review of the past week’s market movers.
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‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle. Investment in technology remains a robust pillar of support for economic activity. The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East and questions over the sustainability of profits in the technology sector are causes for concern. In August, the thinning of trading volumes will expose the market to the risk of increased volatility. Discover Eurizon's positioning for August 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis.
Audio recorded on 27.7.2026.
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The week was marked by greater caution in the markets due to tensions in the Middle East and the potential risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose without reaching alarming levels, whilst the euro-dollar exchange rate remained stable. The major stock markets closed lower, with weaker performances in Europe and emerging markets, while profit-taking in the technology sector was the main factor in the United States. In the bond market, lower-than-expected US inflation resulted in a slight fall in yields, although geopolitical tensions continue to fuel inflationary concerns. Investors therefore remain focused on geopolitical developments and the next moves of the central banks. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 20.07.2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
It was a volatile week in the markets, influenced by renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Oil recorded a moderate rise, while the euro/dollar exchange rate remained largely stable, a sign that investors still perceive risk as manageable. European and Asian stock markets have shown greater weakness compared to US markets, supported by the resilience of the US economy and the start of the corporate earnings season. Bond yields also rose slightly, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary risks. In the next few days, market focus will primarily be on data relating to inflation and consumption in the United States. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 13 July 2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
Positive week for financial markets, with both the S&P 500 in the US and major European stock exchanges posting gains. The fall in oil prices and expectations of less restrictive monetary policies have boosted investor confidence. In the United States, the economy continues to show solidity, with industrial activity expanding and the labour market remaining resilient. In Europe, June inflation slowed more than expected, while Germany has announced a new reform plan to support growth. Focus remains firmly on the next moves of central banks, inflation trends and the start of the corporate earnings season. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 6 July 2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle. Investment in technology remains a robust pillar of support for economic activity. The fall in oil prices points to a likely further fall in inflation and provides further support for the economic cycle. Discover Eurizon's positioning for July 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis.
Audio recorded on 24.6.2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/analisi-mercati
Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
The markets have taken a positive turn tone thanks to the easing of tensions in the Middle East following the agreement between the US and Iran, wich contributed to a decline in oil prices. The US economy has confirmed its solidity, with retail sales exceeding expectations and consumer spending remaining robust. The Fed has left interest rates unchanged, whilst maintaining a cautious stance and signalling that any cuts could take more time. Over the next few days, attention will focus on data on business confidence, inflation and US consumer spending data. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.
Audio recorded on 22 June 2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
A positive start to the week for financial markets, driven by the nearing of an agreement between the USA and Iran. This has now been confirmed by both parties, though not yet formalised. Equity markets are up, while government bond yields have edged slightly lower, maintaining a cautious approach. The formal signature of the agreement remains a key focus for markets in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, it remains crucial for investors and central banks to assess the impact of the oil shock on inflation and growth. Attention is already shifting to the details of the deal and the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, both of which are key elements for the future stability of the region. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 15 June 2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
Over the past week, financial markets have shown weakness due to tensions between Israel and Iran and strong US labour data. The resilience of the US economy has heightened fears of a Fed that remains inflexible on interest rates, triggering profit-taking, particularly in the US technology sector. European indices limited their losses thanks to lower exposure to tech stocks, while emerging markets ended the week lower. On the bond front, yields have risen in both the United States and Europe. Oil is also up, returning toward $95 per barrel, along with the dollar against the euro. In the coming days, attention will be focused on the ECB meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate hike is expected. US inflation data will also be very important. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.
Audio recorded on 8 June 2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights
Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The scenario assumes the continuation of the global economic cycle, supported by investments in technology. In the event of a US-Iran agreement, there is room for a decline in oil prices; however, central banks remain vigilant to contain any second-round effects on inflation. Discover Eurizon's positioning for June 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 28.5.2016.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights:
https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/analisi-mercati
Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page:
https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
The week was positive for the markets, thanks to the absence of new tensions in the Middle East and progress in negotiations, which seem to be moving closer to an agreement. The drop in oil prices, back to around 90 dollars, has supported both equity markets and government rates, with a marginal decline in yields. The dollar has weakened against the euro, reflecting a context of reduced risk aversion. In the United States, the economy remains stable, while in Europe, emerging signs of deterioration are linked to high energy costs. The focus remains on the impact of the Iranian crisis on inflation and future monetary policies. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 25.05.2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
Global equities were weak over the week, following a highly positive earnings season. The lack of developments in Iran and rising inflation expectations, driven by WTI crude oil prices rising again over one hundred dollars per barrel, have resulted in significant increases in government bond yields. Oil prices and the future trajectory of inflation, which, after all, remain the core focus of central banks’ upcoming monetary policy decisions, are currently one of the main points of market attention. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.Audio recorded on 18 May 2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
Global equity indices closed moderately higher, supported by the continuation of talks in the Middle East and the parties’ willingness to avoid further military escalation, at least for now. After the markets initially responded positively to the US proposal, WTI crude oil prices have since quickly rebounded to around $100 per barrel following Iran’s rejection. The uncertainty over the resolution time of the Middle East crisis has had a limited impact on equity markets, which last week focused primarily on corporate earnings and macroeconomic data. The focus remains firmly on the future measures of central banks with regard to inflation expectations, against a geopolitical backdrop which, while free of new military tensions, appears likely to require time for negotiations to consolidate. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 11 May 2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The scenario assumes the continuation of the global economic cycle, with a further decline in oil prices. The structural cycle of technological investments is acting as a support, compensating for the political instability. Discover Eurizon's positioning for May 2026 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 28.4.2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/analisi-mercati
Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
Investors remain focused on the crisis in the Middle East: anticipation of the outcome of negotiations, combined with the slight rise in oil prices, has marginally weakened European equity markets. In the US, meanwhile, the S&P 500 has reached new highs thanks to the strong performance of quarterly earnings. Emerging markets indices were also positive. Slight rise in government rates, in both the US and Europe. The resilience of the macroeconomic framework, in light of oil prices staying higher than expected for a longer period than anticipated, remains the primary focus for investors and central banks. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 27.4.2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights
Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
Over the past week, news of possible reopenings of the Strait of Hormuz and attempts to breach the US naval blockade have increased media volatility, but without significantly impacting markets. Global equity markets have actually responded positively, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs. Weaker start to the week due to renewed tensions in the Strait. The government rates market remains uncertain: initially supported by the decline in oil prices (and thus in inflation expectations), it later felt the impact of the renewed closure of the Strait.
With the start of the earnings season, which has been solid so far, the evolution of the Iranian crisis remains the primary focus for investors, alongside inflation outlooks and the monetary policies of central banks. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 20.4.2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/market-insights Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en/video/promo/disclaimer
The Iran crisis remains at the heart of market dynamics. Attempts to establish a ceasefire have been welcomed. A reduction in attacks and reprisals has enabled negotiations to continue, amid ultimatums and extensions. Despite the uncertainty and a slight rise in oil prices, equity markets ended the week in positive territory, while government bond yields declined. Despite a marginal increase in inflation expectations stemming from the Iranian crisis, the overall macro framework remains resilient and does not appear to be compromised for investors at this stage.
Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon.
Audio recorded on 07.04.2026.
Stay up to date with the latest trends and outlooks in financial markets through Eurizon’s analysis and insights: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/en-GB/market-analysis Before listening, please read the warnings outlined on the following page: https://www.eurizoncapital.com/it-IT/video/promo/disclaimer
‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. Following the shutdown, the resumption of macro data releases will enable an assessment of the US economy, which is showing signs of a labour market slowdown, while consumer spending and investment remain resilient. In the Eurozone, growth is stabilising, consumer spending remains resilient and investment is growing, providing a basis for further support in 2026, in view of the defence and infrastructure plans. DiscoverEurizon's positioning for December 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 26.11.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 24.11.2025. The week saw a slight increase in equity market volatility, driven by uncertainty over the sustainability of margins linked to investments in the US technology sector and expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy decisions in light of US labour market data. This has all resulted in a decline in US government bond yields, while European government rates have remained stable.
While the US macroeconomic outlook remains unclear, investor focus remains on the Fed’s next moves, particularly the possibility of a further rate cut in December, which does not yet appear to be fully priced in. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 24.11.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 17.11.2025. The US Congress has finally approved the extension of the spending bill until 30 January, ending the shutdown and allowing the publication of economic data that had been suspended in previous weeks. The wait for labour market data – expected to provide clarity on the true health of the US economy – combined with statements from several Fed officials, which have contributed to tempering expectations of a rate cut in December, has led investors to adopt a cautious stance. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 17.11.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 10.11.2025. As the US shutdown continues, through now finally seeming close to an end, and with the consequent lack of publication of many macroeconomic data, investor attention has focused on the limited available data relating to the US labour market. These have shown slight weakness, leaving open questions about the impact that the development of artificial intelligence will have on American employment. Uncertainty has translated into a marginal increase in volatility, without excessive movements, and profit-taking on equity markets. However, the latter are already positively pricing in the news of the approaching end of the shutdown, as reflected in this week’s early trading. Investor focus has now shifted to the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions, which must contend with a labour market that appears to be weakening. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 10.11.2025.
‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. We await the end of the shutdown to assess the strength of the US economy. However, indicators coming from corporate profits remain positive. In Europe, the focus is on investment plans in defence and infrastructure. DiscoverEurizon's positioning for November 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis.
Audio recorded on 28.10.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 27.10.2025. The mix of positive corporate results, solid macro data and hopes for a US-China détente has reduced volatility in equity markets. All major global indices, particularly those of the US and Emerging Markets, closed the week in positive territory. Market attention is now focused on the Fed meeting, where another rate cut is expected. Attention also remains on the continuation of the earnings season, particularly those of the US technology sector. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 27.10.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 20.10.2025. In the US, the ongoing shutdown and the subsequent suspension of the publication of key macroeconomic data has led investors to focus on different areas. The revelation of fraud in the US car finance sector generated marginal volatility, which was immediately contained since it was not considered capable of affecting the entire consumer financial system, and also thanks to reassurances from the Fed, which confirmed a process of gradual monetary easing.
The Fed's accommodating stance and falling oil prices are supporting the global economy as we await a clearer picture. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 20.10.2025
Eurizon Weekly, 13.10.2025. During the week, markets remained relatively stable amid the US government shutdown, anticipation of the earnings season and the truce in the Middle East. However, this stability was disrupted on Friday, when the Trump administration renewed its threat to increase tariffs on China. However, statements from the US government over the weekend have sought to soften the tone, following a familiar pattern. In Europe, the issue of the formation of an executive to approve the budget law in France remains key. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 13.10.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 06.10.2025. Stock markets posted a positive weekly performance despite the start of the shutdown in the USA: at the moment, the market does not seem particularly concerned, instead expecting an agreement to be reached within a reasonable time frame. Investor focus remains on the US labour market, which will determine the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts, and on the next season of quarterly earnings. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 06.10.2025
‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. US employment data and investment plans in Europe will be monitored in the immediate future.
The fact that the Fed is once again reducing rates is an element of support for the economic cycle. Discover Eurizon's positioning for October 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 25 September 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 22.09.2025. The week was dominated by the Fed: the US central bank confirmed that, given the modest impact of the trade war on inflation and the slowdown in the labour market, it now considers it appropriate to resume the normalisation of short-term rates. The market expects rate cuts to continue, with a target of 3% during 2026 (Fed rates currently stand at 4.25%). Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 22.09.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 15.09.2025. A positive week overall for equity markets, with US inflation data not altering investor expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin a monetary easing cycle. The upcoming Fed meeting remains the focus for investors, particularly the timing of interest rate cuts and forecasts for the US economy. In-depth analysis with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 15.09.2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 8 September 2025. US labour market data has again shown signs of a slowdown, leading investors to strengthen expectations that the Fed might resume cuts in September and then continue with cuts at a faster pace than previously estimated. Yields on government bonds, particularly US, are falling, with stock markets remaining at the previous week's levels.
We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 08 September 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 02.09.2025. Global stock markets down slightly in a week that saw a renewed focus on political issues. Profit-taking, however, follows three extremely positive weeks in August, with stock markets reaching new highs due to expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The stock markets also benefited from trade agreements signed by the USA with Japan and the EU, while macro data offered reassuring signs. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 02 September 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 04.08.2025. A week characterised by the announcement of new tariffs by the US administration against countries with which an agreement has not yet been reached, surprising markets that had expected a more constructive continuation of the negotiation phase. Positive US quarterly figures and US GDP data supported markets during the first part of the week. The weakening labour market, however, led to a drop in US government bond yields and consequently in the dollar, which interrupted the phase of rapid consolidation that had begun at the start of the week. Investors now expect the Fed to cut rates as early as September. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team.
Audio recorded on 04 August 2025.
“The Globe”, Eurizon’s view.
The reference scenario sees the continuation of the global economic cycle as a central hypothesis. The macro-impact of the trade agreements between the US and its partners, the evolution of fiscal policy measures in the US and EU, and the impact on monetary policy choices are yet to be assessed. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 29 July 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 21.07.2025. US trade tariffs are still at the centre of market dynamics: the as-yet unknown outcome of the negotiation phase is making investors cautious, although the background macro data and the quarterly earnings season are highlighting the impressive resilience of the American economy. The focus is now on the next decisions of the Fed, which will need to define future monetary policy. This week also sees the ECB meeting, which is expected to be an interim session, pending assessment of the advisability of further rate cuts. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 21 July 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 14.07.2025. The attitude of the Trump administration, thanks to the good performance of the US economy and global financial markets, has returned to being more aggressive, but the reaction of the markets, even in the openings of the new week, has been essentially calm. The general idea is that, once again, the American shock tactics are aimed at accelerating an agreement rather than reigniting the trade conflict. This new phase of temporary uncertainty, however, has led investors to adopt a more cautious attitude. Tariffs, together with the corporate earnings season, have returned to the centre of market dynamics, pending formal agreements to be defined between countries. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 14 July 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 07.07.2025. This week saw US price lists continue to gain ground, while the rest of the global price lists remained slightly below previous levels: on the one hand, the strength of the US macro environment is supporting the US indices, while on the other, the prospect of the expiry of the extension for US reciprocal tariffs on 9 July, is inciting greater caution among investors. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 07 July 2025.
‘The Globe’, Eurizon's view. The reference scenario sees the global economic cycle continuing. The finalisation of trade agreements and fiscal policy choices in the US and EU, as well as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and oil, are to be monitored. Discover Eurizon's positioning for July 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 25 June 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 23.06.2025. Global financial markets remain at last week’s levels and investors are hanging fire, waiting to assess the developments in the crisis between Israel and Iran which, over the weekend, saw the involvement of the US. The price of oil is rising, while the Fed has confirmed a pause in rate changes, in line with expectations. The mix between growth and inflation, put to the test by trade policies and geopolitical risks, remains the main focus for investors. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 23 June 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 16.06.2025. The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East has slowed global equity markets, whose recovery had been experiencing a phase of consolidation, after partially overcoming the trade tariffs and the issue related to US tax reform. The Federal Reserve will have to take the geopolitical framework into account during its meeting on Wednesday 18 June, where the focus will be on inflation and labour market data. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 16 June 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 09.06.2025. The balance is still positive for global stock exchanges, thanks to the continuing talks on trade tariffs and American macro-data that are, at least for the moment, easing fears of marked slowdown. These factors, together with the still robust labour market data, have also translated into a marginal increase in US government interest rate yields. European rates, on the other hand, are only slightly above previous levels. The ECB has again cut rates by 25 bps. Audio recorded on 9 June 2025.
Positioning for June 2025 ‘The Globe’, Eurizon's investment vision. The reference scenario sees the continuation of the economic cycle as a central hypothesis. In the immediate term, the macro-impact of April’s tensions on trade tariffs, the implications for central banks and the evolution of fiscal policy measures in the US, EU and China are still to be assessed. Discover Eurizon's positioning for June 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 29 May 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 26.05.2025. The stock market was once again affected by the White House announcements on the subject of tariffs, but Trump's statements last week only partially rekindled the volatility, which was already decreasing at the start of this week. The effects that the evolution of tariffs and the US fiscal expansion plan will have on the monetary policy expectations of the Fed and other central banks remain one of the key issues for the market. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon’s Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 26 May 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 19 May 2025. The week opened with markets, particularly equity markets, quickly pricing in the positive developments in the China/US tariff talks and seeming ready to turn the page on this highly volatile phase to move on to the next item on Trump's electoral agenda – tax reform. Slight rise for US and European rates as they grapple with the new potential scenario of expansionary fiscal policy in the two geographical areas. The dollar continues to recover. The assessment of the actual impacts of tariff volatility on the real economy and expansionary fiscal policies remain key areas of attention for investors. Let's take a closer look with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 19 May 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 12.05.2025. The 90-day suspension of tariffs between the US and China and the constructive tone of negotiations, announced earlier this week, were well received by markets with very positive openings. Investors are now waiting for details of the deals and the next steps to end the trade war. There’s also a focus on assessing the macro impact of the tensions of the last two months in a context of uncertainty that has seen a significant deterioration in confidence indices, especially among consumers. We’ll take a deep dive with Stefano Cucchi from Eurizon's Product Specialist & Macro Research team. Audio recorded on 12 May 2025.
“The Globe”, Eurizon’s investment view. The baseline scenario sees the US administration’s decisions as the main focus theme. The likeliest outcome is the signing of bilateral agreements although the process may take time. Therefore we confirm an only moderately pro-cyclical approach. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for May 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 05 May 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 28 Apr. 2025. The global stock markets, and the US in particular, experienced a positive week thanks to the ongoing openness to talks on trade tariffs shown by the Trump administration. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Product Specialist & Macro Research team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 22 Apr. 2025. Last week volatility eased somewhat on news of potential negotiations on US trade tariffs, although no formal agreements have yet been reached, the White House’s change in approach has been welcomed by investors. However, the key factor for the future global macroeconomic picture is still the evolution of trade relations with China, the only country that has acted in strong retaliation of US tariffs. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Apr. 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 14 Apr. 2025. The financial markets experienced another volatile week, as uncertainty lingers over the evolution of trade tariffs. The market was conditioned by announcements, denials, and official statements: in addition to the possibility of negotiations with trade partners and the confrontation with China, that may have peaked, the markets also priced in the new fiscal package approved by the US Congress. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 14 Apr. 2025.
Eurizon Weekly,7 Apr. 2025. Considerations on economic growth, inflation, and the outlook for the markets in light of the new trade tariffs announced by the US. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 7 Apr. 2025.
“The Globe”, Eurizon’s view. The scenario combines a moderate expansion in the Eurozone with positive growth in the US. While the United States themselves now face the prospect of a slowdown due to their own tariffs, Europe and China are compensating with stronger fiscal policy measures. The main focus theme, and source of potential volatility, are still the economic policy decisions of the Trump administration Find out how Eurizon is positioned for April 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 27 Mar. 2025
Eurizon Weekly, 24 Mar. 2025. Last week’s main events were the Fed’s policy meeting (that left rates unchanged), still solid macro data in the US and, in Europe, the approval in Germany of the constitutional changes required to approve the massive financial defence and infrastructural spending plan. However, the markets remained cautious overall, as focus is presently on the actual size of the tariffs announced by the US administration. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 24 Mar. 2025.
Eurizon Weekly 17 mar. 2025. Last week the stock markets continued to prove rather volatile,due to uncertainty generated by the erratic approach of the US to its new trade policies. Business and consumer confidence, that has driven the US economic cycle over the past few years, remains the greatest source of concern for investors. The FOMC meeting this week is expected to shed light on the future course of monetary policy. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 17 Mar. 2025
Eurizon Weekly 10 Mar. 2025. Volatile week on the financial markets, as in the US the Trump administration acted confusedly on trade tariffs and macro data stopped strengthening, while in Europe the announced fiscal expansion in Germany came swiftly and unexpectedly, together with new defence spending in the EU, prompting the markets to price in a very different scenario from the previous. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 10 Mar. 2025
“The Globe”, March 2025. Once again, positive growth in the US and a more moderate expansion in the Eurozone are confirmed. The Federal Reserve is on hold in its rate cut cycle, while the European Central Bank’s loosening continues. Trump administration’s hitherto moderate (in concrete terms) is reassuring for the financial markets. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for March 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Markets Analysis. Audio recorded on 25 Feb. 2025.
Eurizon Weekly 24 Feb. 2025. Rather cautious week on the markets, with macro data in the US outlining a slowdown of services, and Europe focused on the elections in Germany, the results of which were not excessively fragmented, but will have to translate into a new government coalition. Government bond yields down marginally, and volatility on the stock markets, in the US in particular. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 24 Feb. 2025
Eurizon Weekly 17 Feb. 2025. The mix of still solid macro data, positive corporate earnings, and an improving geopolitical picture on the prospect of talks beginning to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, supported the markets: in the week, government bond yields were stable and stock indices rose back, with Europe still emerging as the top-performing market since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the macro picture seems to be supportive of ongoing growth, and data confirm that the US cycle is normalising, avoiding an excessive overheating for the time being. As regards monetary policy, the strengthening of inflation implies the Fed staying on hold, also in waiting for greater clarity on the Trump administration’s future policies. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 17 Feb. 2025
Eurizon Weekly 10 Feb. 2025. With the trade tariffs theme set to remain crucial for investors, caution prevailed among investors last week in the wake of US labour market data and quarterly earnings reports, that are confirmed solid albeit essentially in line with analyst expectations. This week’s inflation reading will provide clearer indications on the price dynamic in the United States, and therefore on the macro picture the Fed will consider in making its next decisions on rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 10 Feb. 2025
Eurizon Weekly, 3 Feb. 2025. Last week was a positive one overall: solid US macro data and the ability of technology sector companies to reassure investors with strong quarterly results, that helped reduce the volatility triggered by potential new developments on the low-cost AI front in China. The Fed and the ECB also lived up to expectations. However, focus is now on the new trade tariffs announced over the weekend by the Trump administration, and most importantly, on immigration control. On the macro front, with the US economy in good health, focus is back on the mix of labour market and inflation data, although the main source of volatility will be the United States’ trade policy. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 3 Feb. 2025.
“The Globe”, February 2025. Positive growth continues in the US, as opposed to a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The main theme, and source of potential volatility, is the impact of the measures the new US administration is putting in place. The Fed is on hold, whereas the ECB should continue to cut rates. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for February 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis .Audio recorded on 28 Jan. 2025
Eurizon Weekly, 27 Jan. 2025. Positive week for the global stock markets, that benefited from the less aggressive tones used by President Trump on trade tariffs, and from US macro data, that confirmed the solidity of the US economy. Caution ruled on the government bond market, with US and European rates at levels in line with the previous week’s. The dollar weakened. In waiting for the Fed’s decisions, focus remains on corporate earnings, in the technology sector in particular, grappling with the volatility triggered by Chinese competitors. Andrea Conti, Head of Market Macro Analysis at Eurizon takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 27 Jan- 2025.
Eurizon Weekly 20 Jan. 2025. US inflation data, and core inflation in particular, restored confidence on the markets, that over the previous weeks had been pricing in concerns of an overheating of the US economy. In fact, in the course of the week, government bond yields dropped back down. The drop of yields, combined with the opening of the 4Q 2024 earnings season (with financial sector names reporting very solid results) boosted the stock markets. The future level of rates in light of the growth-inflation mix is still the markets’ main focus, as Trump takes office and officially begins his mandate as President. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 20 Jan. 2025.
US labour market data, that confirmed the good state of health and resilience of the US economy were at the heart of market dynamics last week. This triggered profit-taking on the US stock markets and pushed up US government bond yields, that priced in the increased likeliness of the Fed slowing its interest rate cut cycle. The future path of US rates, in light of the growth-inflation mix, remains the markets’ main concern: anticipation is high ahead of the inflation reading this week. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 Jan. 2025.
Eurizon Weekly, 7 Jan. 2025. In the opening week of 2025, the main themes at play in the final stages of last year were confirmed.
Investor focus is back on the central banks, as inflation slowed its downtrend and could be affected by the trade tariffs announced by Trump. In this context, government bond yields rose, albeit without compromising the bullish tone of the stock markets, supported by the macroeconomic picture and by expectations for the new Trump administration’s fiscal policy not to prove particularly aggressive. Audio recorded on 7 Jan. 2025.
“The Globe”, January 2025. Positive growth in the US continues, as also the moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The loosening of the monetary restriction implemented by the central banks to curb inflation also continues. Anticipation ahead of the opening of the mandate of the new US administration holds the potential to generate volatility on the markets, although the baseline scenario remains favourable. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for the opening of 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets department.
Audio recorded on 17 Dec. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 16 Dec. 2024. The macro picture that is taking shape is outlining a certain divergence between the European Union and the United States. Investor focus is now on the next FOMC meeting, expected to provide indications on the next US monetary policy management moves. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.
Audio recorded on 16 Dec. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 9 Dec. 2024. Last week focus was back on macro dataIn the US yields dropped, with labour market data staying positive. In Europe, political uncertainty in France kept German rates stable at the previous week’s levels. However, the fall of the government and anticipation ahead of the appointment of a new prime minister have not generated excessive volatility. The stock markets also performed well in the week, with the S&P 500 index consolidating new all-time highs. Focus is now shift on central bank decisions over the next few weeks. The mix of growth and inflation expectations will be decisive in defining the timeline the two major central banks will follow in lowering rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 9 Dec. 2024
“The Globe”, December 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US with a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to hold back inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be in part priced in by the markets, and anticipation ahead of the new US administration’s mandate holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for December 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 28 Nov. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 25 Nov. 2024. Last week US government bond yields were stable, pricing in a still positive macro picture, supported by services. In Europe yields priced in a weaker macro picture, tied to business confidence data. On the stock markets, the strength of the US economy on the one hand, and the weakening of the European on the other, had a positive impact. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 25 Nov. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 18 Nov. 2024. In the US, the mix of solid macro data and the first rumours on the new Republican administration’s appointments translated into higher US yields and into a further appreciation of the dollar. The global stock markets incurred profit-taking in the week across the board. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 18 Nov. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 11 Nov. 2024. The key event of the week were the US elections. Trump’s victory met the expectations of most investors, although such a clear win was not entirely priced in. This translated into very strong gains on the US stock markets. Uncertainty over the actual evolution of the macro picture left European and US interest rate markets close to their previous levels. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 11 Nov. 2024.
“The Globe”, November 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US and a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to slow inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be partly priced in by the markets, and the outcome of the vote in the US holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for November 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at the AM company. Audio recorded on 30 Oct. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 28 Oct. 2024. Last week, the mix of macro data and of anticipation ahead of the presidential election in the US translated into an increase of government bond yields and some profit taking on the stock markets. The resilience of the US economy, combined with the outcome of the election and the geopolitical picture, are still in the market spotlight. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 28 Oct. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly, 21 Oct. 2024. The markets brought another cautious week to an end, gradually pricing in two distinct macro scenarios for the US and the Eurozone. In the US, in fact, macroeconomic data confirmed once again that the consumption trend is in good health, as also the economy as a whole. In Europe, on the other hand, the ECB implemented a 25bps rate cut, as expected, acknowledging that there may be the risk of a faster-than-expected macro slowdown. This translated into little-changed US yields as opposed to European rates on the decline, in waiting for macro data to provide clearer indications for the central banks to gauge the appropriate pace of rate reduction. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 21 Oct. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 14 Oct. 2024. Caution rued on the financial markets last week. In the US, labour market data and inflation once again confirmed the resilience of the US economy, and investors are now waiting for confirmative evidence on the macro front and from the central banks, starting with the ECB meeting on Thursday. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 14 Oct. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 7 Oct. 2024. Volatile week overall, due to the mix of macro data, on the recovery in the US, but weaker in Europe, and mounting geopolitical tensions in the middle East. In macroeconomic terms, the market is now pricing in slightly different rate-cut timelines in the US and Europe. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 07 Oct. 2024.
The Globe, October 2024. The scenario combines stable growth in the United States with signs of a loosening of the labour market, and moderate growth in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing monetary restriction. The size of the slowdown in the United States and the run-up to the elections are sources of uncertainty. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for October 2024, with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets team. Audio recorded on 30 Sep. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 23 Sep. 2024. Government bond rates were stable and the stock markets scored gains following the opening of the Fed’s rate reduction cycle (expected and priced in by the markets), with an initial 50 basis points cut. This marks a recalibration of monetary policy, that does not anticipate a sequence of equally sharp cuts, but takes stock of the decline of inflation. The next set of macro data on the labour market, growth, and inflation, will be decisive in determining the actual pace of rate cuts. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 23 Sep. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 16 Sep. 2024. Last week the ECB’s policy meeting confirmed market expectations, cutting rates by 25 basis points. In the US, headline inflation was in line with expectations, whereas the core component grew slightly more than expected in monthly terms. The interest rate market was stable overall, while stocks recovered well, after the previous week’s round of profit-taking. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 16 Sep. 2024
Eurizon Weekly 9 Sep. 2024. US labour market data came in weaker than expected, but showed that the normalisation phase continues. The data were consistent with soft landing scenario, but start to justify a monetary policy easing. The interest rate market reacted by staying on a downtrend. Profit-taking on the stock markets. Focus is now on the ECB and the Fed. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 9 Sep. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly, 2 Sep. 2024. The markets recovered well after volatility had surged in the opening days of August, triggered by the mix of weaker than expected US labour market data, softer than expected quarterly corporate results, and the swift unwinding of financing positions in yens as a result of the Japanese central bank’s rate hike. Fed open to an initial rate cut in September. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 2 Sep. 2024.
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, where inflation is close to target and should prompt the ECB to cut rates further in the autumn. Inflation has resumed declining in the United States, and expectations are now for an initial Fed rate cut in September. Also in the US, increasing focus on the presidential election could generate volatility on the markets, that are already stretched. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 24 July 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 22 July 2024. The ECB’s policy meeting lived up to investor expectations and market focus is mostly on the earnings reporting season, and in particular on the potential impact of the new political scenario in the US may reap on corporate results as well as on the global growth outlook. The interest rate market reacted in orderly fashion. On the other hand, uncertainty tied to the future US political agenda and the global crash of many IT systems on Friday, generated volatility on the stock markets. The market still expects a gradual reduction of rates in both the US and in Europe, although investor focus is once again on the timing of the moves. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 22 July 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 15.07.24. The much anticipated June inflation reading in the US surprised investor expectations last week in part by coming in weaker than forecast. The overall reduction of yields, and the possibility of the macro picture enabling the Fed to open the rate cut cycle, and the ECB to consolidate the accommodative policy already being implemented, was welcomed by the stock markets as well, although caution prevailed ahead of the opening of the quarterly earnings seasons. Investor focus is still mainly on macro data, although some political and geopolitical factors, such as the race for the US presidency, should also be closely monitored. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 July 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 08.07.24 The mix of events of a political nature and of macro data was at the heart of market dynamics. In Europe, the elections in France and in the United Kingdom captured the attention of the markets, whereas US macro data were once again decisive in outlining the macro scenario on which the Fed will make its future decisions. In the UK, the elections went as expected, with a landslide victory for Labour, called to relaunch the country’s economy. In France, on the other hand, the elections failed to assign an absolute parliamentary majority to any of the parties, therefore a government coalition will have to be formed.
This week, focus will be on the US inflation reading, due out on Thursday, after the release of European inflation data in the past few days. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 08 July 2024
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising at close to the ECB’s target rate, but in the United States is still above the Fed’s target. The French elections are a source of temporary volatility. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 2 July 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 24.06.24. Last week caution prevailed among investors, faced with a scenario marred by political uncertainty in France that is to some extent conditioning the markets in Europe, whereas in the US macro data are still proving rather solid. European spreads were stable, after rising on the political developments in France, and stayed effectively unchanged in the week. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 24 June 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 17 June 2024. Last week was rife with both macroeconomic and political events. In Europe, the outcome of the elections to renew the European Parliament, while leaving potential majorities shielded from major upheavals, had important repercussions at the national levels. Considerable turbulences emerged in Europe, reflected both by the stock lists, that suffered losses in the week, and by spreads. On the other hand, government bonds performed well in the week, also thanks to lower than expected inflation in the United States, with US indices scoring gains. Stefano Cucchi, of Euizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 17 June 2024
Eurizon Weekly, 7 June 2024. Last week, important political and economic events took place. In Europe, the much-anticipated ECB meeting on the one hand confirmed investor expectations by implementing an initial policy rate cut, while the new inflation forecasts prompted a partial postponement of expectations for the ensuing path of rate reductions. Also in Europe, the elections to renew the European Parliament were held over the weekend. Although the count isn’t over yet, the outcome leans towards a likely confirmation of the current parliamentary majority, as already indicated by voting intention polls. In the US, on the other hand, May data confirmed the labour market’s good state of health, easing potential pressures on the Fed to proceed with a swifter than estimated rate cut cycle. Expectations in this sense will be revised on Wednesday, in light of the May inflation reading. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 07 June 2024.
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, with inflation close to the ECB’s target in the euro area, but still above the Fed’s target in the United States. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for June 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 30 May 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 27 May 2024. Last week ended with weak stock indices overall and a recovery of sovereign yields on the mix of US macro data, quarterly earnings report, and central banks statements. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Laura Dalbosco offers insight on the latest set of advance PMIs. Audio recorded on 27 May 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 20 May 2024. Last week investor focus was on US macro data, and in particular on the much-anticipated April inflation reading, that was in line with expectations, showing a slight decline. The stock markets benefited most, pricing in the resilience of the US economy, devoid of excessive accelerations, and a marginal stabilisation of the level of interest rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 20 May 2024.
Eurizon Weekly, 13 May 2024. The stock markets performed well in the course of last week, benefiting from the stabilisation of government bond yields and from the quarterly corporate earnings reports. The macro picture confirmed that the US economy, while still solid, is not heading for an overheating phase, whereas in Europe industrial output showed signs of weakness, fuelling investor expectations for the opening of the ECB’s rate cut cycle in June. Investor focus is now entirely on the US inflation reading, out on Wednesday, called to validate the soft-landing scenario priced in since the beginning of the year. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 May 2024.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month ahead, in light of a baseline scenario that combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising and is close to target in the Eurozone, but still above target in the US. Impact of geopolitical themes modest.
Audio recorded on 30 Apr. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 29.04.24 The stock market recovered supported by quarterly earnings reports as well as by a macro picture still benefiting from a solid consumption trend. The re-pricing of monetary policy expectations continues Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Laura Dalbosco, of the same team, reports on PMI indicators. Audio recorded on 29 April 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 22.04.24. The risk of a potential escalation in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over the future path of interest rates, in the US in particular, translated into a rather volatile week on all the major markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Apr. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly, 15 Apr. 2024. US inflation rose and beat expectations on the upside for the third month in a row, and combined with the risk of the crisis in the Middle East spreading, with the direct involvement of Iran, fuelled uncertainty among investors. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 April 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 8 April. 2024. In the course of the week, the mix of US macro data and statements made by Fed officials generated renewed uncertainty over the policy rate reduction path. This translated into a marginal rise of government bond yields, while the major stock indices consolidated at their previous levels. Focus will mostly stay on the US market and on the Fed. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 April, 2024.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a slower downtrend of inflation compared to the second half of 2023, stable growth in the US, and signals of the slowdown in the Eurozone coming to an end. The central banks have declared they intend to cut policy rates, but not before mid-year. Geopolitical themes are having a modest impact.
Audio recorded on 28 March 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 25 Mar. 2024. The much-anticipated FOMC meeting was last week’s main event. The US central bank Fed kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, and raised both its growth and inflation forecasts. During the meeting, the Fed reasserted its intention to implement three rate cuts in 2024, thus confirming the announcement made in December and removing concerns of a potential reduction to two moves: the message was swiftly priced in by the stock markets, that performed well in the week. Bonds also performed well, on the shorter end of the curve in particular.
Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 25 Mar. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 15 Mar. 2024. Last week, investor focus was on data on the evolution of prices in the US, the downtrend of which seems to have slowed. Market operator caution prevailed, waiting on the Fed meeting this week to provide greater details on its future monetary policy choices. Expectations for the start and the scope of the interest rate cut cycle are still the main determinant factor of volatility on the markets. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 Mar. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Mar. 2024. The markets enjoyed a positive week thanks to the ECB meeting, that confirmed investor expectations, and US labour market data, that while mixed overall, confirmed that the US economy is not overheating at the moment. However, while the markets scored gains, they generally remained rather cautious in waiting on the US inflation reading.
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports Audio recorded on 11 Mar. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 4 Mar. 2024.Another positive week, with investors slightly more cautious, in light of the trend of US inflation and ahead of this week’s ECB meeting. The markets are pricing in on the one hand some uncertainty over the timeline of the convergence of inflation back to target, and on the other macro data that confirm the resilience of the overall picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 4 Mar. 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation converging towards the central banks’ targets and expectations for the global economic cycle to continue. The Fed and ECB still intend to lower policy rates in the second half of the year, and the market impact of geopolitical tensions remains modest. Audio recorded on 22 Feb. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 19Feb. 2024. In the course of the week, both consumer and producer prices rose back on a monthly basis in the US, casting some doubts on the timeline of inflation’s return to target and, as a result, on expectations for the Fed’s future decisions on the announced monetary easing process. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 Feb. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 12 Feb. 2024. The marginal repricing of monetary policy expectations by the sovereign yields market continued, progressively cutting back on the excesses recorded over the closing months of 2023. The global stock markets were cautious, whereas the US stock lists stayed on an uptrend, supported by quarterly corporate results, in waiting for the US inflation reading to provide clearer indications on the timing of the start of the interest rate normalisation process by the central banks. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 12 Feb. 2024.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with expectations for an ongoing global economic cycle. The Fed and the ECB intend to lower rates in the second half of the year. Geopolitical tensions are only reaping modest impacts on the markets. Audio recorded on 01 Feb. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 29 Jan. 2024. Last week the US economy again confirmed its strength, and combined with the growth-supportive measures put in place by the Chinese authorities and the ECB’s more accommodative than expected statements, boosted stock indices. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 29 Jan. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 22 Jan. 2024. Stock markets more cautious, on the decline of short-term US yields and ahead of the earnings season reaching its height. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Jan. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly 15 Jan. 2024. After a cautious start to the year, marked by widespread profit-taking following the sharp recovery scored at the end of 2023, last week investors started to take a bolder approach. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports.
Audio recorded on 15 Jan. 2024.
Eurizon Weekly, 8 Jan. 2024. In the opening week of 2024, the markets remained cautious in the wake of the strong recovery recorded in the final weeks of 2023. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 Jan. 2024.
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains Eurizon’s positioning for the coming month in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation on the decline to target, and slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have completed their hike cycles and could cut rates could cut them in 2024 once the downtrend of inflation has consolidated. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are reaping a modest macro and market impact. Audio recorded on 19 Dec. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 18 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the mix of US inflation, confirmed on a downtrend, and of the central bank meetings, with the spotlight on the Fed, essentially confirmed that further rate hikes are not on the cards, and in fact rate cuts in 2024 are starting to be considered. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look
Audio recorded on 18 Dec 2023
Eurizon Weekly 11 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the European markets benefited from the accommodative tones on the future path of interest rates used by some ECB Governing Council members. In the US, spotlight back on the Fed’s next decisions and on forthcoming US inflation data. Stefano Cucchi of the Euruzone Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Dec. 2023.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, with a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have put the rate hike cycle on hold and are leaning towards keeping rates in restrictive territory in order to consolidate the decline of inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are having modest impacts at both the macro level and on the markets.
Audio recorded on 29 Nov. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 27 Nov. 2023. After rising significantly over the previous weeks, in the wake of the Fed’s announcements and of the inflation reading, the markets consolidated at the levels achieved, in waiting for further confirmative evidence from forthcoming macroeconomic data. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 27 Nov. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 20 Nov. 2023. The US inflation reading validated the Fed’ monetary policy. On the markets, government bond yields dropped, stock indices scored gains, and the BTP-Bund spread narrowed. Italy’s sovereign rating was confirmed by Moody’s at Baa3, with an upgrading of the Outlook from negative to stable. Market focus remains on central bank decisions and on the evolution of the macro picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 20 Nov. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly, 13 Nov. 2023. The fight against inflation is not yet officially over, and the central banks’ future choices are still dependent on the course of macroeconomic data. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 Nov. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 6 Nov. 2023. Last week the markets found support in the Fed meeting, that confirmed the hiatus in the rate hike cycle, and in a mix of data that reported a sharper decline of inflation than expected in Europe and a slowdown of the US labour market. In Europe, in addition to confirmation from the ECB last week of the pause in the rate hike cycle, the sharp drop of inflation led to a significant decline of yields on the longer end of the curve.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 6 Nov. 2023.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, considering a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the United States. The central banks have put their rate hike cycles on hold, but are set on keeping a restrictive stance in waiting for inflation to drop further. Modest impact on the markets of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Audio recorded on 26 Oct. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 23.10.23. Markets focused on the situation in the Middle East and on macro data, that beat expectations by confirming the strength of the US economy, and cast doubts over the slowdown scenario. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 23 Oct. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly, 16 Oct. 2023. The uncertain macro picture, with two wars under way near the borders of the European continent, is advising caution on the markets. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 16 Oct. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 09.10.23. In the course of last week, data on business confidence and the labour market confirmed the solidity of US growth, despite the sharp monetary restriction under way. The easing of the labour market is one of the main conditions the Fed needs to verify before reviewing its monetary policy in a less restrictive mode, together with a reduction of inflation. Therefore, focus is now on the inflation reading, due out on Thursday. Over the weekend the underlying scenario saw the addition of a new crisis in the Middle East. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 09.10.23
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizo’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team explains Eurizon’s positioning going forward, faced with a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with resilient economic activity to the monetary restriction, that leaves the central banks in no rush to announce the end of the rate hike cycle, although the restriction effectively seems to be on hold.
Audio recorded on 27 Sep. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 25 Sep. 2023. The outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting was at the heart of market dynamics: although the Fed lived up to expectations by leaving interest rates unchanged, at the same time it announced that a further hike could be necessary in 2023, depending on the trend of inflation, and confirmed its intention to consolidate the present level of fed funds rates for several months, in waiting for macro conditions to offer clearer evidence of a slowdown. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer.
Audio recorded on 25 Sep. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly, 18 Sep. 2023. In the course of last week, the stock markets turned bullish again, albeit cautiously, in the wake of the US inflation reading, essentially in line with expectations, and of the ECB’s policy meeting, that left open the option of a hiatus on rates. The spotlight is now on the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurzion’s Macro Research & Product team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 18 Sep. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Sep. 2023. The mix of still solid macro data in the US, and consolidating oil prices at high levels translated into profit taking on the markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Sep. 2023.
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023 in consideration of a baseline scenario that combines falling inflation, albeit still above target, and resilient economic activity despite the monetary restriction, reason for which the central banks are in no hurry to declare the rate hike cycle as over.
Audio recorded on 27 July 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 24 July 2023. During the week, the government bond rate market saw yields initially drop following the release of UK inflation (lower than expected), only to rise back in the wake of the release of jobless claims data in the US, that told the story of a still very solid labour market. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 24 July 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 17 Jul 23. Declining inflation and labour market conditions that are still distant from recessive dynamics helped restore a soft-landing baseline scenario for the US economy. Andrea Conti, Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 17 July 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 10 July 23. the US economy is still strong and does not seem set to help ease price pressures any time soon, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep a hawkish stance. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 10 July 23.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning as we enter July 2023, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a sluggish decline of inflation with slowing but still positive economic growth. Resilient growth is prompting the central banks to keep up monetary restriction, that nonetheless seems to be approaching completion.
Watch the video to find out how we are positioned for July.
Audio recorded on 28 June 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 26/06/23. Last week, government bond rates were confirmed at the same levels as in the previous week, whereas the stock markets incurred losses. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 26 June 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 19 June 2023. Last week the US inflation and the Fed and ECB decisions were in line with expectations. Andrea Conti, head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 June 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 12 June 23. With a still solid economy, and core inflation pulling back more slowly than expected, the Fed is called to confirm the hiatus in the rate hike cycle it had previously announced, whereas the ECB should confirm the rate hike path as it had outlined, with no further accelerations. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 12 June 2023.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of June 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates.
Luca Sibani, Head of Discretionary Investment at Epsilon, takes a closer look at the emerging bond market. Audio recorded on 30 May 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 22 May 2023. US growth, and therefore the evolution of prices, are back at the heart of market dynamics. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team Eurizon takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 29 May 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 22 May 2023. Last week, US macro data were confirmed rather solid once again, denying, at least for the time being, an overly negative outlook for growth. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 May 2023
Eurizon Weekly 15 May 2023. In the course of the week the markets remained cautious in waiting to verify the evolution of the macro picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 May 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 8 May 2023. The Fed and the ECB convey the message that if on the one hand they will keep fighting inflation, on the other they do not intend to underestimate the effects of the strong monetary restriction on the real economy.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 May 2023.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of May 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates. Product Specialist Cecilia Barazzetta then takes a closer look at the Corporate Bond market.
Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 24 Apr. 2023. Investor focus is on central bank decisions, expected in the first week of May, as the macroeconomic slowdown seems to be well managed in the different regions of the world, while inflation remains stubbornly high. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 24 Apr. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 17 Apr. 2023. Last week yields rose slightly, the stock markets performed positively and the dollar weakened against the euro. Macro data in the USA were confirmed at the heart of market dynamics. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 17 Apr. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Apr. 2023. This week the markets stabilised in the wake of macro data releases in the US. central bank decisions, called to balance the fight against inflation with the macro slowdown, are again the main focus of investment decisions. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 11 April 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for April 2023, in light of the tensions that have emerged in the banking system, that could prompt less hawkish central bank stances.
A closer look at the bond market follows, provided by Paolo Bernardelli, Head of Fixed Income & FX. Audio recorded on 30 Mar. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly 27 Mar. 2023. Main themes of the week: banking sector solidity, latest Fed decisions and macro data. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 27 Mar. 2023
Eurizon Weekly, 20 mar. 2023.
Andrea Conti, head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, analyses the impact on the financial markets of the tensions affecting the banking system, explaining where they stem from, their different aspects, and pointing out the forthcoming data to watch.
Audio recorded on 20 Mar. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 13 Mar. 2023. The hardships faced by US bank SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) in completing an important capital increase to cover losses on securities, triggered by massive deposit withdrawal requests, took the markets by surprise, sparking a major risk-off movement, with a sharp decline of stock indices and government bond rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 13 Mar. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 6 Mar. 2023. Yields rose further in the week, in the wake of still solid macro data, stronger than expected inflation in Europe, and still resilient stock markets. Return to growth in China. Investor focus is still on the growth-inflation mix, although anticipation is high ahead of US labour market data. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 6 Mar. 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for March 2023, pointing out themes to watch and opportunities.
A closer look at the bond universe is then offered by Maria Luisa Matarrelli, Head of Developed and Emerging Government Bond and Forex.
Audio recorded on 23 Feb. 2023.
Eurizon Weekly, 20 Feb. 2023. Last week government yields rose again in the wake of the messages sent by the Fed and the ECB, and of the release of the producer price index, that grew much more than expected. Andrea Conti, Head of the #Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 20 Feb. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 13 Feb. 2023. Last week yields rose across the board, pricing in a stronger than expected labour market, and therefore the possibility of the Fed being forced to keep hiking rates, when it seemed close to a hiatus. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 13 Feb. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 6 Feb. 2023.
In a busy week in terms of economic events, the ECB and Fed meetings lived up to market expectations, while US macro data surprised sharply. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 6 Feb. 2023
The Globe: February 2023. With inflation on the decline again in December in the US and in the Eurozone, focus is increasingly on the macro slowdown. Data are adding credibility to the hypothesis of a soft landing, rather than a sharp slowdown of the economy (hard landing). Reacceleration of the Chinese economy confirmed, on the other hand. Find out how we are positioned for February.
Audio recorded on 30 Jan. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 23 Jan. 2023. Markets cautious in waiting to verify the actual intentions of the central banks in light of slowing macro data and the sluggish decline of inflation.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 23 Jan. 2023
Eurizon Weekly 16 Jan. 2023.
In the course of the week, government yields were confirmed at the previous week’s levels, and the stock markets stayed on the uptrend observed at the beginning of the year, also thanks to the US inflation reading, that confirmed expectations. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 16 Jan. 2023
In the week, yields dropped on the long end of the European curve in particular, spreads were stable, and stock indices recovered. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 9 Jan. 2023
The Globe: Outlook for 2023. The new year should bring declining inflation and to a simultaneous slowdown in growth. Under the baseline scenario, the central banks are expected to complete their tightening cycles in the opening quarter of the year and then have a free hand in containing the slowdown of growth. As previously mentioned, in this context medium and long-term rates should stabilise, if not drop back. Easing pessimism could support stocks in the immediate term, but the recovery will in any case have to be validated by the resilience of the economic cycle.
Audio recorded on 20 Dec. 2022
Eurizon Weekly 12 Dec. 2022.
Stable yields and stock indices on the decline last week, as the market lies in wait.
Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 12 Dec. 2022
The Globe: December 2022. The baseline scenario contemplates the progressive easing of inflation and a simultaneous macroeconomic slowdown. The central banks are expected to slow the pace of the monetary tightening and to end the hike cycle in the opening months of 2023. In this context, medium and long-term rates should stabilise, if not drop back. Easing pessimism may support stocks in the immediate term, but the recovery will depend on the resilience of the economic cycle.
Audio recorded on 30 Nov. 2022
Eurizon Weekly 28 Nov. 22. Moderately bullish tones prevailed last week, with by long-term rates on the decline and positive stock market performances, with contained movements in waiting for further clarifications from the central banks. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 28 Nov. 2022
Eurizon Weekly 21 Nov. 2022. Interlocutory week, characterised by little changed yields and stock indices, with investors waiting for further confirmative evidence of the inflation dynamic, and of a potential easing of the restrictive policies being implemented by the central banks. Stefano Cucchi, of the #Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team Eurizon, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 21 Nov. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 14.11.2022. The markets switched to risk-on mode last week, with rates on the decline and the stock markets recovering , in the wake of the US inflation reading, that showed initial sigs of a slowdown, with both the headline and core indices beating forecasts on the downside.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 14 Nov. 2022
In the course of the week, government bonds rose back up, helped by the ECB and Fed meetings, that provided no details of a potential slowing of the tightening cycle. Positive week on the stock markets, although focus is now on US inflation, forecast to slow, while in Europe inflation is up to record highs.
Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 7 Nov. 2022
The Globe: November 2022. The AM company’s positioning faced with a scenario in which the downward revision of economic growth forecasts continues, as the monetary restriction process advances. In this context, medium and long-term rates should stabilise, if not pull back, whereas uncertainty on the resilience of the cycle could hinder the recovery of the risk assets.
Audio recorded on 26 Oct.2022
After the uptrend observed over previous weeks, the US government bond rate market seems to be pricing in again a slowdown in the Fed’s tightening cycle, following rumours of a possible moderation in the pace of the central bank’s rate hikes. The slowdown in US yields, combined with the positive indications of the earnings reporting season and favourable news on the energy crisis, is supporting stock indices.
Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 24 Oct. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 17 Oct. 2022. Yields on the rise in the week, with inflation beating expectations again. The Stock markets weak in waiting for clarifications on the dynamic of interest rates and of the 3Q earnings reporting season. In Europe, the debate continues on the energy crisis, in China, it is time to decide on Xi’s third mandate. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon's Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 17 Oct. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 10 Oct. 2022
Rather positive week for the stock markets, that benefited in part from the slowdown in yields. Anticipation ahead of the US inflation reading. Stefano Cucchi reports.
Audio recorded on 10 Oct. 2022
The Globe: October 2022. The asset management company’s positioning faced with a scenario that, because of inflation, sees ongoing monetary restriction accompanied by downward revisions of growth, that should result in a stabilisation of rates as fears of a slowdown increase. However, uncertainty on the resilience of growth could extend volatility.
Audio recorded on 28 Sep. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 26 Sep. 2022. Where were the stock markets at in the run-up to the vote in Italy and how have they reacted to the centre-right’s victory?
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 26 Sep. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 19 Sep. 2022. Last week risk aversion was widespread among investors, with yields on the rise across maturities, and stock indices on the decline. The main was the US inflation reading, that beat expectations. Stefano Cucchi reports.
Audio recorded on 19 Sep. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 12 Sep. 2022. The main theme is still the attempt to strike a balance between fighting inflation and the resilience of medium-term growth forecasts. Stefano Cucchi takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 12 Sep. 2022
The Globe: August 2022. The AM company’s positioning in a scenario in which investor focus is shifting from inflation to the economic slowdown. In this context, medium and long-term government yields should continue to stabilise, and the stock markets, that are already pricing in part of the macro slowdown, should be supported.
Audio recorded on 28 July 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 25 July 22. Last week was an eventful one. Stefano Cucchi takes a closer look at the effects on the markets.
Audio recorded on 25 July 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 18 July 2022. Long-term rates and stock indices on the decline in the week. European scenario still marred by multiple sources of uncertainty. Andrea Conti takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 18 July 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 11 July 2022. Last week was a transition week, with the markets mostly waiting on Wednesday’s US inflation reading. Andrea Conti takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 11 July 2022
The Globe: July 2022. The AM company’s positioning faced with inflation growth and the measures being put in place by the central banks to contain it. The US inflation reading for May outlined a further increase, prompting the Fed to accelerate its rate hike cycle. Futures are now pricing in a point of arrival for fed funds at 3.5% by the spring of 2023. The ECB has also taken a more hawkish stance.
Audio recorded on 29 June 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 27 June 22. In the spotlight last week were data on business confidence, that came in weaker than expected, and that helped generate positive return on the markets. Stefano Cucchi takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 27 June 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 20 June 22. T In the course of the week the Fed and ECB meetings confirmed their increasingly hawkish monetary policies in an attempt to fight inflation, generating volatility on the markets. Stefano Cucchi takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 20 June 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 13 June 2022. In the US, inflation continued to rise, confirming expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Fed. The ECB surprised the markets by taking a more hawkish stance than expected. Andrea Conti takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 13 June 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 06 June 2022. Uncertainty mounting back on the markets in the wake of Eurozone inflation, and of data on business confidence. Stefano Cucchi takes a closer look at the effects on the market.
Audio recorded on 06 Jun. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 30 May 2022. The mix of stable rates, the Fed not using even more hawkish tones, and business confidence, down but still consistent with solid growth, has proven supportive for risk assets.
Effects on the markets analysed by Stefano Cucchi.
Audio recorded on 30 May 2022
The Globe: June 2022. The AM company’s positioning faced with an intertwining of themes that are having restrictive effects on global growth. Among the main themes, US inflation has probably peaked, although its decline will be slow and non-linear. Price pressures are being kept in place in particular by the new lockdowns in China and by commodity costs.
Audio recorded on 18 May 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 16 May 2022. Despite the downward reversal of US inflation, the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy and generally still high inflation are affecting growth expectations. Andrea Conti takes a close look. Audio recorded on 16 May 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 09 May 2022. The Fed meeting was the main event of last week.
Stefano Cucchi reports on its effects on the market.
Audio recorded on 09 May 2022
The Globe: May 2022. The AM company’s positioning faced with a complex intertwining of factors, among which inflation stands out.
Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, 26 april. The main market mover last week was the Fed, that confirmed rate hikes aimed at fighting high inflation, and China, where new Covid variants are spreading and prompting increasingly drastic restrictive measures. Special report by Stefano Cucchi.
Audio recorded on 26 Apr. 2022
Stock markets slowing further, confirming uncertainty over the introduction of restrictive monetary policies. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 April 2022.
Market focus is back on the high level of inflation and on the restrictive turn taken by the central banks in an attempt to contain it: Stefano Cucchi takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Apr. 2022
Eurizon’s Chief Economist, Andrea Conti, analyses the macro scenario, impacted by the Ukrainian crisis and by the Fed’s policies, then details the AM company’s positioning in April, to the tune of an easing of the pro-cyclical stance of portfolios, an unwinding of the underweighting of duration, and confirmation of the Neutral view on stocks.
Audio recorded on 30 Mar. 2022
Volatility eases further as talks between Russia and Ukraine go on, and e investor focus has turned back to central bank policies. In the meantime, the initial set of data on confidence during the crisis are out.
Special report by Stefano Cucchi.
Audio recorded on 28 Mar. 2022
Positive recovery of the stock markets, as talks between Russia and Ukraine continue and the March Fed meting confirms expectations. Stefano Cucchi analyses the scenario.
Audio recorded on 21 Mar. 2022
The financial markets experienced another highly volatile week, but Europe is back in positive territory. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, offers some details.
Audio recorded on 14 Mar. 2022
Russia-Ukraine: volatility on the markets and stock indices in the red. Stefano Cucchi analyses the scenario.
Audio recorded on 7 Mar. 2022
Eurizon’s Chief Economist, Andrea Conti, explains the AM company’s positioning in March, that will bring an easing of the pro-cyclical approach to portfolio management, in light of higher rates and of geopolitical tensions. On the second part, Maria Luisa Matarrelli takes a closer look at the bond market.
Audio recorded on 24 Feb. 2022
This week’s analysis by the Macro Research & Product Specialist team. The spotlight is on the Ukrainian crisis, that has sparked considerable volatility on the markets, and affected energy prices. The other main themes are still monetary policy tightening and high inflation.
Audio recorded on 21 Feb. 2022
Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have triggered significant volatility on the markets, but the main theme is the combination of economic growth, inflation, and central bank decisions. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist, shares his insights.
Audio recorded on 14 Feb. 2022
Eurizon’s Chief Economist, Andrea Conti, explains the AM company’s view for February: the volatility phase observe at the beginning of the year has not undermined the pro-cyclical approach to portfolio management, combined nonetheless with a defensive positioning on currencies. In the second section, Monica Wang offers her insights on the Chinese market.
Audio recorded on 03 Feb. 2022
Volatility on the markets was the main feature the week. Main event: Fed meeting. Stefano Cucchi, of the Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a look at its effects on the markets.
Audio recorded on 31 January 2022
Profit-taking continues on the major global stock markets, and in the US in particular.
Anticipation is high ahead of the Fed’s next moves. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, shares his views.
Audio recorded on 24 Jan. 2022
Caution prevailed on the markets last week. Stefano Cucchi, of our Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains why and takes a look at the main themes.
Audio recorded on 17 Jan. 2022
In the first week of the year, government yield curves moved towards a normalisation and the global stock markets slowed. Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Research, shares his insights.
Audio recorded on 10 Jan. 2022
In 2022 global growth will slow, after accelerating in 2021, and this should aid an easing of inflation pressures. In a context of sustainable growth and declining inflation, the reduction of monetary stimulus by the central banks should be well tolerated by the markets. Pro-cyclical approach confirmed to portfolio management.
Audio recorded on 22 Dec. 2022
Market volatility easing back thanks to the in part thanks to more reassuring context in terms of the resilience of growth. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team offers his insights. Audio recorded on 13 Dec 2021
In a short audio, Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning in December. Data confirm that the economic recovery is on track, albeit at a more moderate pace than in the opening months of the year, and despite tensions over inflation in the US and in Europe. In China, still no sign of an easing of credit conditions, despite the macro slowdown. And China is the topic of the special report by Stephen Li Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital.
Audio recorded on 24 Nov. 2021
Markets unchanged last week and investors cautious. Inflation back up in October.
Audio recorded on 22.11.2021
US inflation data stole the show last week. Our analysis of the effects on the markets.
Audio recorded on 15 Nov. 2021
Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, analyses last week’s market trends, with support coming from the US labour market and in particular the much-anticipated announcement of the Fed’s tapering. A dedicated focus piece on the US central bank is offered by Laura Pozzini, also of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.
Audio recorded on 08 Nov. 2021.
The stock markets scored gains in the month, in a context of rising long-term yields. These are supportive indices for the markets and the overall scenario, with economic growth on track and adjusting to cruising speed.
Focus points are still inflation, that in any case is not accelerating, China, that may at last resume injecting stimulus into the economy, and the decisions taken by the Fed, that for the time being seems to be acting in line with market expectations and steps forth as a factor capable of keeping volatility under control.
In this audio, Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research and Product Specialist team, analyses the current economic picture and explains Eurizon’s positioning in November 2021.
Audio recorded on 27.10.2021
Interest rates continued along the normalisation path taken a few weeks ago, that outlines the transition from a sharp acceleration phase to a growth consolidation phase.
Audio recorded on 25 Oct. 2021
Positive week on the main global stock markets, in the wake of US corporate earnings and the trend of the government bond rate market. However, stock indices were pushed up in particular by the inflation reading.
Audio recorded on 18 Oct. 2021
Last week the major global stock markets returned into positive territory after a profit-taking phase, the Fed’s plans to start tapering asset purchases by the end of the year further confirmed.
Audio recorded on 11 Oct. 2021
Among the main economic picture focus points in the near term, it is important to understand whether restrictive factors will prevail (inflation and China), or if current uncertainties will be overcome, allowing the central banks to continue normalising monetary policy.
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains how we are positioned in relation to the macroeconomic context.
Audio recorded on 29 Sep. 2021
Last week the major stock indices scored gains, after previously hinting at a correction. Yields increased, confirming positive market sentiment. The Fed lived up to expectations and announcing it will start the tapering process by the end of the year, while bringing forward the timing of the rate hike in 2023. On the other hand the Chinese stock market is struggling, due to Evergrande and to the government’s new policy approach. Inflation data out this week in the US and in the EU.
Audio recorded on 27.09.2021
Last week stock indices remained rather uncertain, at the same levels as the previous week’s.
Macro data confirmed the scenario outlined by the Fed, with the economic recovery on track but still in need of time to consolidate. In China, the tightening of rules and regulations for private sector businesses continued.
Anticipation this week ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, that should bring updated expectations for the path of interest rates and details on the tapering process
Audio recorded on 20.09.2021
ong-term government bond yields in the US and Germany have dropped significantly, raising questions on the solidity of the economic recovery.
There are at least four factors holding back the recovery: the reacceleration of Covid infections, the loss of purchasing power caused by inflation, the tightening of lending conditions in China and a the prospect of a less accommodative Fed.
This is a combination that implies a certain degree of uncertainty in the immediate term, but which should be positively resolved.
Audio recorded on 29.07.2021
The stock markets performed well in the week, after hinting at a correction that was ultimately avoided. Focus is mostly on the Delta variant of the virus and on the UK’s experiment in going ahead in any case with the full removal of restrictions. The fact that, for the time being, the rise in infection numbers is not translating into more hospital admissions is reassuring. This week the Fed meeting will be in the spotlight, to reap any indications on the timing and technicalities of the tapering
Audio recorded on 26.07.2021
During the week, the decline of both short- and long-term interest rates rapidly shifted market focus back onto the solidity and timeline of a full-fledged economic recovery. All the more so in light of news that the new Delta variant is spreading at a fast pace in the emerging countries, and is also starting to raise concerns in countries that are at an advanced stage of their vaccination campaigns, such as the United Kingdom.
Audio recorded on 12.07.2021
Discover the economic news marked out the financial markets in the month of June.
Biden’s European tour, Europe among variants and recovery fund, Italy believes in the recovery.
Audio recorded on July 2nd 2021.
The main object of interest driving the market is the dynamic between post-pandemic cyclic recovery, bottlenecks generating temporary inflation peaks and the Federal Reserve’s plan, which lately changed its message by initiating the removal of monetary stimulus across the next months. Despite all this, the central bank’s conduct reflects the market’s expectations, thus helping to maintain a low volatility.
Audio recorded on 30.06.2021
The markets are stabilising again and have resumed pricing in a normalisation of the macroeconomic picture going forward, after the previous week’s setback in the wake of the Fed meeting, that had set the stage for a future interest rate hike.
Andrea Conti, in charge of Eurizon’s Macro Research team, offers his Macroeconomic analysis and explains the reasons behind the markets’ reaction in our weekly rendezvous.
Audio recorded on 28.06.2021
Last week’s main event was the FOMC meeting, that envisaged two rate hikes in 2023, in light of the improvement of the macro scenario and of the labour market, and of the progress made on the health front. However, the statements made by the US central bank have not persuaded the markets, as the 2-year rate segment of the curve has started to rise back after staying effectively unchanged for months.
Audio recorded on 21.06.2021
The markets performed positively, reacting composedly to rising US inflation. By no chance, the Fed considers current inflation levels as transitory, and singles out the labour market as the true indicator of the state of the recovery. In Europe, the ECB confirmed its accommodative stance in support of a lagging growth trend.
Audio recorded on 14.06.2021
The markets remained marginally bullish but very cautious. The main theme investors are currently focusing on is when the recovery will be deemed sufficiently sure-footed to allow Central Banks to start gradually removing the stimulus introduced during the pandemic emergency.
Audio recorded on 07.06.2021
US and Europe on the path for economic reopening. Draghi: We need vaccinations and respect for the rules
Audio registered on June 7th 2021.
The medium-term scenario appears to be positive, but the volatility of economic data and inflation gives reason to stay alert. The directional low exposition approach from last month is reconfirmed, with neutral positioning on the main activities and pro-cyclic exposition from the Eurozone (underweight on Bund, overweight regarding stock markets) where we think positive surprises might take place.
Audio recorded on 27.05.2021
Caution prevailing on the markets, in waiting to verify the Fed’s next moves in light of excellent business confidence data at the global level, and of US inflation, that if confirmed in the medium term, would mean much stronger than expected growth, potentially prompting the removal of monetary stimulus. However, the Fed is also monitoring the US labour market USA, still distant from 2019 levels.
Audio recorded on 24.05.2021
April inflation in the US beat expectations, bringing volatility back to the markets and restarting the uptrend of 10-year government bond rates. This is a dynamic investors are notoriously monitoring with particular attention in the present phase of the economic cycle, and that carries a number of question marks. However, the Fed has offered reassurances and, for the time being, the markets seem to be accepting them.
Audio recorded on 17.05.2021
Investor approach to the stock markets returns positive and pro-cyclical, once again thanks to the interest rate market, that was confirmed stable. All the major global stock markets scored gains, Europe and Japan the week’s top performers. US labour market data push back any discussion on the removal of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Audio recorded on 10.05.2021
In this monthly view from April the increase in vaccinations is evident: now Europe too is ready to go, while Biden declares himself ready to sustain the US’ economic recovery.
Audio recorded on 4.05.2021
The context we are referring to continues to look optimal, but priced for the majority. The US are quickly recovering, increased vaccinations in the Eurozone should be favouring it from a macroeconomic perspective, and China is at its re-acceleration peak.
The profile of our investment choices become less pro-cycle, by profiting off the US' duration underweight and the equity market's overweight.
We're reinforcing the duration underweight for German titles and increase our relative preference for European stocks.
Audio recorded on 29.04.2021
The financial markets took a breather last week, with government bond rates effectively unchanged at the previous week’s levels, as also global stock indices. Investors are now awaiting confirmative evidence both from vaccines and macro data. In this sense, PMI indices were favourable, in the United States especially.
Audio recorded on 26.04.2021
Another positive week of the financial markets, and for the stock markets in particular, that consolidated the gains scored over previous weeks, thanks to the stabilisation of government rates and fiscal stimulus, as well to the progress being made by the vaccination campaign.
US inflation rising but still under control.
Audio recorded on 19.04.2021
The stabilisation of US government bond rates continues. Ten-year rates consolidated below the 1.70% mark, and combined with the advancement of the vaccination campaigns, and with fiscal and monetary support, are driving the stock markets and the recovery. Central banks confirm they will stick to their accommodative policies.
Audio recorded on 12.04.2021
The hiatus in the upswing was taken well by the major global stock, that have priced in a normalisation scenario both in terms of the vaccination campaign and of the recovery (as photographed by macroeconomic data). In the USA, the recovery is proving solid, supported by a successful vaccination campaign and by well-coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus. Europe is still being held back by lockdown measures and restrictions.
Audio recorded on 06.04.2021
In April we’ll maintain a moderately pro-cyclic profile regarding investment choices, reflecting expectations of a macro-recovery continuation. Spread markets have been downgraded to neutral, and the stock market is upgraded to positive.
Audio recorded on 25.03.2021
US yields are acting as a barometer of the recovery in the present phase, together with fiscal stimulus, the Fed’s support, and the advancement of the vaccination campaign. The stock markets remain cautious, trying to prevent volatility caused by an excessively fast recovery. This week, data on business confidence and inflation will be released in the US.
Audio recorded on 22.03.2021
Positive week for the stock markets that are benefiting in particular from a scenario that contemplates a marginal stabilisation of interest rates, that has undoubtedly helped the main stock lists resume their upswing.
Audio recorded on 15.03.2021
In general, the advancement of the vaccination campaign is keeping investors cautious and in search of clarifications on the timeline for the reopenings. However, last week the US market confirmed, mostly through government bond rates, that it is sure-footedly on a recovery path, whereas Europe is lagging behind. This week, data on US inflation and Eurozone industrial output in January will be released.
Audio recorded on 08 Mar. 2021
Analysis of the month - February
A new vaccine deal, Italy: a new government is born, Europe tries to restart. Discover the major economic news marked out the financial markets in the month of February.
Audio registered on March 4th 2021
In our investment view we maintain a moderately pro-cyclic profile, reflecting expectations of continuation with respect to macro-recovery, which also considers a tight movement in the short term period in the stock market.
Audio recorded on 25.02.2021
In the course of the week, the stock markets remained rather cautious, in waiting for greater clarity on the themes that presently seem at risk of causing volatility: the progress in administering vaccines, and fiscal stimulus in the US. Macro data on business confidence in the US (PMIs) were positive; in Europe, on the other hand, the impact is still being felt of the extension of the restrictive measures.
Audio recorded on 22.02.2021
The markets took a breather last week, with indices unchanged. Investors turned more cautious, after scoring gains the previous week on good news on vaccines and US earnings, and on expectations for an economic and political recovery in Europe, also in the wake of Mario Draghi’s appointment as new Italian Premier.
Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research team, shares his analysis.
Audio recorded on 15.02.2021
The moderately pro-cyclical profile of investment decisions is confirmed. It reflects the expected economic recovery, but it also consider a slower than expected vaccination campaign and a tightened stock market movement.
Audio recorded on 03.02.2021
Last week, uncertainty rose back on the markets. The main cause was the lower than expected number of vaccines administered globally (a new guiding theme for investors), combined with concerns tied to the new restrictive measures governments may have to put in place to contain the virus.
Audio recorded on 01.02.2021
With the exception of European indices, roughly stable last week, the stock markets continued to recover. German rates were stable, and the uptrend of US rates took a breather. Focus last week was mostly on developments concerning a number of key themes.
Following Joe Biden’s inauguration, reassurances were offered by the new US Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, that further fiscal stimulus is on its way.
On the other hand, news on the delays in the delivery of vaccine doses in Europe deserve attention
Audio recorded on 25.01.2021
The Globe, Eurizon’s view on the markets and its investment choices: may 2022
The AM company’s positioning faced with a complex intertwining of factors, among which inflation stands out.
Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2022
Eurizon Weekly, a closer look at the financial markets: 26 apr. 2022
The main market mover last week was the Fed, that confirmed rate hikes aimed at fighting high inflation, and China, where new Covid variants are spreading and prompting increasingly drastic restrictive measures. Special report by Stefano Cucchi.
Audio recorded on 26 Apr. 2022
Over the past week, caution prevailed on the markets, with investors waiting for confirmative evidence from both macro data and the corporate earnings season, that has begun in the United States. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research team, offers his weekly analysis
Audio recorded on 18.01.2021
Twenty-Twenty-One began as 2020 ended: stock markets recovering, rates stable but slightly on the rise in the US, weaker dollar.
Investors are embracing a positive outlook for 2021, reassured by the outcome of the runoff elections in Georgia, which allowed the Democrats to take full control of Congress, as well as by the opening of the vaccination campaign. Eurizon Analysis and positioning with Andrea Conti.
Audio recorded on 11.01.2021
Eurizon’s view takes the name “The Globe”: discussing the markets means not only stacking up numbers and charts, but also – and especially – understanding the world and facts.
Audio recorded on 17.12.2020
Marginally higher volatility, stock indices consolidating in line with highs, caution back on the government bond markets as well. The main factor in removing near term uncertainty will be verification of the actual efficacy of the anti Covid-19 vaccine, and how it will be distributed. Different picture in the medium term, with reassuringly strong monetary and policy support.
Audio recorded on 14 Dec. 2020
Distribution of the first doses of the vaccine in some countries, and the opening of negotiations on the fiscal stimulus package in the US, instilled confidence in the stock markets. Rate normalisation process under way, business confidence strong in November, with positive signals from the global manufacturing PMI index. The Eurizon Macro Research team offers its analysis.
Audio recorded on 4 Dec. 2020
December 2020: economic cycle, view and portfolios update.
Audio recorded on 25.11.2020
The uncertainty clouding the markets a few weeks ago seems to have eased, while not disappearing entirely. The markets are experiencing a consolidation phase in waiting to assess the debate on the tax reform in the US and how the anti-Covid vaccine will be distributed. The virus is still a decisive factor, but is raising fewer fears, at least on the financial markets.
Audio recorded on 23.11.2020
Last week interest rates rose marginally, in a context from which the markets drew positive signals from the outcome of the US elections and the announcement of Pfizer-BioNtech’s anti-Covid 19 vaccine. New macro data due for release in the week.
Audio recorded on 16.11. 2020
Discover the major economic news marked out the financial markets in the month of October.
Watch the video available from November 13th 2020.
Biden President, split Congress. The markets are satisfied with the outcome of the US election, because of the new president’s profile and because they see in the two souls of Congress a path to obtain a more effective post-Covid fiscal package. The Covid pandemic will remain the main theme between now and the end of 2020. Analysis and positioning, by Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research Team.
Audio recorded on 09.11.2020
November 2020: economic cycle, view and portfolios update.
Audio recorded on 28.10.2020
The uncertain phase continues on the market. For the time being, uncertainty seems mostly concentrated in Europe, due to the sharp increase in new infections, whereas the US market seems to be pricing in a more positive scenario, in waiting for fresh post-election stimulus. In the background, macro data in the US are being confirmed solid, and in Europe the first effects of the new wave of the epidemic are showing in the worsening of services sector confidence indices.
Audio recorded on 26 Oct. 2020
The transition phase continues. The markets are still being guided by virus containment, the US presidential elections, and macro data, although the second wave of the Coronavirus is less scary, as containment measures as strict as those imposed in March do not seem to be on the horizon. For what concerns the presidential election in the US, voting intention polls are awarding Biden victory, but investors would also be content if Trump were confirmed… Important macro data releases due this week.
Audio recorded on 19 Oct. 2020
The evolution of the contagion curve, macro data, and the US elections, are still the main themes guiding, economy, although the overall cycle does not seem to be in question. More in detail, the markets are less concerned with Covid-19, as the authorities do not seem inclined to take drastic measures. In the voting intention polls, Biden remains ahead of Trump in the race for the US presidency, although Trump could make a comeback.
Audio recorded on 12.10.2020
The transition phase is being extended by the effort to contain the coronavirus pandemic and by the uncertainty tied to the US presidential elections, that remain the key themes in the present phase. Macro data are also in the spotlight, although expectations now harder to beat. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research team, shares his views.
Audio recorded on 28 Sep. 2020
The transition phase on the markets continues, albeit without casting major doubts on the scenario, as rates have been stable for several months now. On its part, the Fed has reasserted it will remain ultra-accommodative until inflation stabilises (2023?). Higher uncertainty in the near term, when the evolution of Covid-19 infection cases and the US elections will remain decisive. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research team, shares his views.
Audio recorded on 21 Sep. 2020
Easing volatility, which nonetheless remains higher than at the end of August, reflects a situation that is developing and hard to forecast on the markets. By contrast, the baseline still applies, with unchanged rates and dollar in line with its lows. Investors are still focusing on coronavirus cases and the measures put in place to contain them, as well as on political themes: US elections and Brexit back in the limelight.
Audio recorded on 14 Sep. 2020
This week, volatility rose back slightly, but interest rates did not move, and macro data confirmed a slow return to normal. We are experiencing phase in which the markets could potentially correct, but with no change to the elements that make up the baseline scenario. Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Research, shares his analysis.
Audio recorded on 7 Sep, 2020
The stock markets performed well in August, mostly driven by US equity. Low rates, a weakening dollar, and narrowing spreads draw a positive picture of the markets overall, with macro data also lending a hand. In the next few weeks, focus will be on the evolution of the virus, as well as on the run-up to the US presidential elections.
Audio recorded on 31 August 2020
Discover the major economic news marking out the financial markets in the month of July.
Watch the video available from August 4th 2020.
The markets are preparing to take on August in a stabilisation phase in, that will probably be of help in assessing the behaviour of the variables investors are most interest in, such as the containment of the coronavirus containment and economic growth. Eurizon’s Head of Macro Research, Andrea Conti, shares his analysis and explains Eurizon’s positioning for the summer period.
Audio recorded on 28.07.2020