Alternative Visions: Recent Episodes
Progressive Radio Network
Today's show focuses on yesterday's Israel attack on Iran. Four key points about the escalation: 1) Netanyahu scuttles US-Iran negotiations 2) attack was not just to destroy Iranian nuclear weapons development but to decapitate Iran govt and military, create instability and possible regime change 3) Planning has occurred for months with US assistance and US knew of, and likely assisted, Israel in the attack 4) US neocons, with Trump support, continue to run US middle east policy. What will Iran do next? What about Iran-Russia mutual defense agreement recently signed? What will be the response of China? Other BRICS? Regional arab states? More to come. Report on recent EU new secondary sanctions on countries buying Russia oil and EU price-cap sanction lowered to $35/barrel. Why it didn't work at $60 and won't again
Today's show is dedicated to discussing the state of the US empire today. Contrary to some on the left, it is not about to collapse. But it is in a state of intensifying decline. Today's show reviews these two themes and considers the evidence for collapse vs. decline. A brief history how empires extract wealth from their dependencies (plunder, occupation, colonialism, unequal trade, financial imperialism, etc.) is discussed. A review of US institutions of Empire and how the US practices imperial dominance follows. Examples of institutional decline and failing practices are discussed: the US $, SWIFT payments system, IMF, World Bank, fiscal crisis of US empire and economy (deficits, debt, global dollar recycling, etc), contradictions in US monetary policies (why low interest rates don't stimulate growth and high rates don't dampen inflation), decline of US soft power, rise of the BRICS and global South, and chronic slow growth of US economy since 2008 as well as US political, social and ideological indicators of decline. (Discussion is based on Dr. Rasmus's forthcoming new book, 'Twilight of American Imperialism', the introductory chapter of which will be posted on his blog, http://jackrasmus.com on June 1, 2025)
Mainstream media isn't addressing the potential negative impacts on GDP and growth from Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' cutting taxes and spending by trillions of dollars. After reviewing in detail the various provisions of the US House of Representatives final bill, likely changed little by the Senate, today's show explains how the short term impacts of the spending cuts on GDP in 2nd half this year will likely more than offset the longer term effects of the tax cuts. Review of consumer spending, business investment, govt spending, and net exports impacts on GDP due to the tax and spending provisions of the bill.
Today's show discusses further details on Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' tax proposals. Why target total cost was reduced by Congress from $4.5T to $3.8T. Impacts on wealthies1% and,1% and median income households. Backtracking on 'working class' cuts (tips, overtime, social security income & no tax hikes on carried interest and stock buybacks or corporate tax cut rates, as the tax package begins to look more and more favoring capital incomes and businesses. Update on Ukraine war negotiations follows. Why Putin won't meet with Trump soon & Russia warns Ukraine if no settlement it will take a 5th province and maybe more. Russia new offensive coming soon. No real negotiations until fall 2025.
Today's show focuses on pending $4 Trillion Tax Cuts soon acted on by US Congress as part of package of spending/budget. What's actually in the tax bill? Why is it being reduced to $4T? What about the proposed $1.1T in new working class tax cuts (tips, overtime pay, social security income, interest deduction on new car purchases, cap on state & local taxes, etc.). Will they pass? Why are corporate taxes not on the table, only individual income taxes? Why US has cut taxes by $17 trillion since 2001 despite spending $9 trillion on wars? Why was Obama the biggest corp-business tax cutter $6.1T)? How does Trump propose to cut spending to offset the tax cuts?
Today's show dissects the Trump-Zelensky Minerals Deal finally signed, concluding it's not at all like Trump's first deal in March. No US repayment for past US aid in this one and a back door is opened in the deal for US giving Ukraine more weapons again. And why were 3 documents drafted but we only get to know of one? Second half of show discusses the preliminary US GDP for1st three months of 2025 showing a contraction of the US economy by -0.3%--due mostly to US businesses importing extra goods from offshore as a buffer for potential US tariffs on the horizon + US government spending cuts. Business investment continues rising (mostly inventories), housing and manufacturing contracting, and consumer spending rising at a rate half that of 4th quarter 2024.
Much of today's show is dedicated to a detailed discussion of the various plans and proposals to start negotiations on ending the Ukraine war: Trump's revised 'Kellogg Plan', Europe's plan to continue the war, Ukraine and Zelensky's refusal to negotiate without Russia leaving all territory and capitulating, and Putin's June 14, 2024 proposals that haven't changed. To summarize: Ukraine, Europe & Trump want ceasefire first then negotiations; Russia wants negotiations to start during which ceasefire will be discussed. First phase of war negotiations now over; Trump's envoy Witkoff meeting with Putin again. Outcome begins start of next phase. The show also reviews various forecasts whether the US and global economy are heading to recession: IMF, UN, Wall St. Journal, Atlanta Federal Reserve, etc. (For more detail on Ukraine negotiations check out my latest published article: 'Why Trump's Ukraine War 'Kellogg Plan' Collapsed' at http://jackrasmus.com)
Today's show discusses latest events in Trump tariff policies. Not about paying for tax cuts but part of restructuring US empire financing. Why did Trump retreat from pace of tariff implementation? Answer: intense opposition from US multinational corporations to slow down implementation + Japan dumping US Treasuries. Trump launches verbal warning to Powell and Fed to start lowering interest rates, in repeat of 2017 Trump v. Powell conflict (which Trump won). Also, update on Ukraine war negotiations and emerging new Russian offensives. Prediction: US will exit war and Europe assume control. Europe wants to occupy western Ukraine as part of eventual settlement coming this year
Today’s show discusses some of Trump’s emerging domestic policies, with focus on what’s behind shutting down the Education Dept., Trump Tariffs, and the $4.5T tax cuts working its way through Congress. What’s the real impact of Tariffs on inflation and economic growth? What’s Trump’s 3 part tax strategy? Which presidents since 2001 are responsible for cutting US taxes by $17 trillion and how much did each contribute? Why Trump’s overall fiscal policies are classic Neoliberalism. The show also comments on US air attacks on Yemen and Trump-Putin’s phone calls and scenarios for future US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
After US & Russia met in Riyadh, US and Ukraine followed up to meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia this past week. Today’s show summarizes the positions and demands of the various parties in the 4-way negotiations that are the current discussions re. future peace in Ukraine: USA, Russia, Ukraine, and European Union NATO. What did the USA tell Ukraine in Jeddah? The context of negotiations as military conflict continues, and likely will escalate, in Ukraine. How Russia has cleared out Kursk. Next likely Russian fronts in Sumy and Zaporozhie in the south. Europeans declare $1T new spending on military industry and Germany’s Merz announces $540B more for ‘infrastructure’. Where will EU get the funding? Reports Trump & Putin to talk directly next week (again with no Ukraine or Europeans involved). Meanwhile, US escalates tariff war with Europe. (Next week show: Understanding Trump Tariff Strategy)
Today’s show analyzes two key events of the past week: an in-depth discussion of Trump’s speech to Congress: EOs, DOGE, Taxes, Tariffs, new defense spending in the pipelines, reaffirmation of Greenland and Panama Canal takeover and further shift in US support for Zelensky and Ukraine. Democrats’ Senator Slotkin weak response indicate Democrats still have no alternative program or strategy. Show then discusses Europe’s emergency conference in London to try to develop a response to US policy on Ukraine and likely withdrawal from Europe. European announcement of $1 trillion development of war/defense industry and continued support for Ukraine. Where will Europe get the money for both?
What’s behind the Minerals deal with Ukraine? Why it’s mostly smoke & mirrors, not a contract or final deal. Why both parties compromised & left the deal vague. Who benefits from the deal? How it’s related to Europe’s $260B frozen Russian assets. Why it’s PR. Second part of show continues discussion of the intensifying contradictions behind continuing the US global empire. Why the empire as now structured is no longer affordable and US imperialists are intent on restructuring it (once again as in 1913-19, 1944-50 and 1979-86). US deficits & debt levels unsustainable and DOGE spending cuts for tax cuts as desperate effort to regrow faltering US economy and restore empire’s finances. Domestic US economic restructuring as next phase of Neoliberal policy or as beginning of the end of Neoliberal policies. (For further details on Trump-Zelensky minerals deal, check out my latest published article at http://jackrasmus.com or at LA Progressive, World Financial Review, Znet.)
Today’s show first of two parts on how current events, geopolitical and US domestic, represent the start of a fundamental US restructuring of its global empire. US-Russia meeting in Riyadh Saudi Arabia marks the opening event. What happened in Riyadh? Zelensky reacts. European leaders in tizzy over being side-lined. Starmer (UK)-Macron (France) on coming Europe take over of the war as US bows out. Implications of US-EU feuding for future of NATO. US VP Vance’s speech in Munich. Current emerging restructuring of US empire in context of prior restructurings in 1913-1919, 1944-50, and 1979-85. Next week: How Trump domestic policy (economic & political) and DOGE $2T spending cuts reflects US imperial restructuring as well.
In the past week Trump issued four announcements that continue to portend a radical restructuring of the US imperial system. First: US proposes to ‘own’ GAZA, allowing Israel to focus on future expansion into Syria, west bank & Lebanon, and shift its policy from genocide to ethnic cleansing. The role of Trump son-in-law Kushner’s US-Israel real estate consortium behind the scenes. Second, Trump holds 90 min. talk with Putin, followed by 10 min. with Zelensky, while ignoring the Europeans who in response are now freaking out. Third, Trump announces escalation of US tariff weapon by introducing principle of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs with all US trading partners + offers rollback of US use of sanctions. Fourth, Trump offers Russia to rejoin US SWIFT international payments system, then threatens BRICS with 100% tariffs if they abandon the US $ in trade, declaring thereafter ‘the BRICS are dead!’. Show concludes what we are witnessing is the beginning of the restructuring of US imperial relations abroad, while simultaneously the Trump government takes on the US bureaucratic State apparatus bloated by empire to reduce its power and influence over the government.
today’s show addresses Trump’s recent foreign policies moves, including US ‘owning’ GAZA, Trump overtures to negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada and their response sending 10k troops to US border, Rubio’s visit to Panama, latest on Greenland and China tariffs exchanges. The show then describes the various US moves in recent years that have had the effect of making Europe a growing economic and political dependency of the US. Show closes with early discussion of Trump’s proposed tax cut bill and DOGE. Trump policies represent historic and unprecedented effort by the government to tame and bring the capitalist state under its control once again after decades of the latter exerting supremacy over the former
Today’s show moves on to the Trump years, with many more shows to come no doubt. It’s been only one week but some outlines of where Trump may be going are emerging. Today the discussion focuses on the emerging spending cuts and how they’re designed to pay for Trump’s new tax cuts. Some DOGE austerity targets are discussed. How $200B/yr will cover just half of Trump’s $400B/yr tax cuts. How Tariffs & assumed GDP growth is supposed to cover the rest. That still leaves $1-$1.5 trillion budget deficit for 2025, however. What’s behind Trump’s talk about providing another $500B stimulus for artificial intelligence? Or his ‘drill baby drill’. What’s the multiple roles for tariffs? In global geopolitics, some scenarios behind Trump’s emerging attitude to Ukraine war. Why war won’t end until late 2025. The likely Trump strategy behind Greenland and Panama Canal.
As Joe Biden prepares to leave office on Jan. 20, what area the legacies he leaves behind. Today’s show reviews those legacies—economic and political, domestic and global. For the US economy, a review of the inflation legacy, Covid relief program and results, the Biden jobs record, subsidies to corporate investment, actual US GDP, budget and trade deficits, and national debt. In domestic politics his contributions to the decline of democracy, identity politics, immigration and the failed election of 2024. In foreign policy: the debacle retreat from Afghanistan, his preparation and provocation of the US proxy war in Ukraine, Russia and China tariffs and sanction, support for Israeli genocide in GAZA, and policies that accelerated the rise of the BRICS and their challenge to the US global economic hegemony.
this show continues the beginning of 2025 predictions for US domestic and global politics (see last week’s show for economic predictions). Predictions include Ukraine army will collapse by the summer and real negotiations then begin. Before talks commence with no solution. Europe: Germany’s Afd right wing party will win big in the February elections. Instability in Europe will grow. EU will begin to steal Russia’s frozen assets in its bank. Russia will conclude mutual defense treaty with Iran and more countries will join BRICS in 2025. Israel will air attack Iran and US-Israel will occupy Damascus replacing HTS rebels. Turkey will defeat Kurds and de facto occupy north of former Syria. Political instability will intensify in So Korea, In US politics, Greenland will break from Denmark and negotiate with USA as a territory. Panama Canal will agree to joint control of the canal with US. Trump will renegotiate trade deals with Canada, Mexico and Europe, in a comprehensive ‘Plaza Accords 2.0’ Musk and DOGE will recommend $200B annual spending cuts and Congress will pass Trump’s tax cuts extension costing US budget $4T next decade. Trump will slash foreign aid, education, federal work force, energy subsidies, and restart southern US border wall construction. US budget deficit will again hit $1.5T in 2025 despite the cuts.
Predictions were made for this coming year for the US and global economies. They include likelihood of recession in 1H25 beyond goods sector, inflation likely to drift up again, Fed rate policy, DOGE/Congress austerity measures cutting social programs, Trump tax cuts, deficits and national debt, Tariffs and their consequences, AI technology trends, financial asset markets (stocks and bonds). For the global economy the direction of the US $ short term v. long, a new Plaza Accord 2.0 for US allies, likelihood of Europe sliding further into recession, BRICS expansion in ’25, Russia’s economy and China’s. (Next week: predictions for US domestic political scene and geopolitical developments re. Ukraine & middle east, Russian sanctions, and So. Korea political instability. Also: the legacies of Jimmy Carter presidency)
Today’s show is the annual year end summary of the more important events and developments for 2024 for the economy and politic: A review of the US economy inflation trends, Fed rate policies, US goods sector recession, USA’s runaway budget deficit and national debt, Longshore union negotiations, Artificial Intelligence & Tech trends, pending 2025 Austerity social program cuts & Musk’s DOGE, Biden sanctions on Russia and China, BRICS expansion, the state of Europe & China economies, and the emerging global currency instability as prices and US $ rise. Political review includes the US election of 2024, Trump’s victory, Biden’s coup & Democrat party confusion, and globally the War on the ground in Ukraine, Israel wars in Lebanon-Iran-Yemen, and the collapse of Syria and its consequences. (NEXT WEEK: Annual economic and political predictions for 2025 and review of last year’s predictions for 2024)
Today’s show discusses the key economic events of recent weeks and their relevance to economic policy in 2025. Why did the debt-ceiling deal collapse and then pass last week. What does it mean. Trump’s fiscal strategy taking shape: tariffs, tax cuts, and austerity social spending cuts coming. Musk-Swarmy’s DOGE. Why it won’t resolve the chronic $1 trillion plus annual budget deficits, rising national debt, and $ trillion annual payments to rich bondholders. Neoliberalism fiscal contradictions and crisis will continue. What’s Musk’s DOGE plans? Why the Fed cut interest rates but admitted inflation is rising into 2025. Why inflation will continue to rise. As rates rise will a rising dollar in turn precipitate a global currency war? (Next week show: review of key events of 2024 and my predictions for 2024 made December 2023 last year)
As follow up to last week’s show Ukraine war is center topic. But in past week pro-NATO forces opened up new ‘fronts’ well beyond the conflict. Not by accident rebel forces, coordinating with Turkish, Israeli and US forces accelerating an attack in Syria opening a new front Russia must commit forces to. Another front is Georgia as CIA-US NGO forces continue street demonstrations to try to overthrow that country’s elected government, in a ‘color revolution’ effort much like Ukraine 2014. Yet a third front is the events in So. Korea where the pro-US president attempted to declare martial law, reversed by the Parliament, but supported by the Korean and US occupation military. The show explains how all three events are best understood as events related to US empire counters to Russia-China. Trump’s latest tariff moves against China and BRICS also part of the counter strategy. Show concludes with analysis of Trump’s several anti-war initial nominees being rejected as US neocons & Biden admin. buy time to restore aid & weapons to Ukraine
Today’s show focuses on last two weeks’ events in Ukraine wear and the steady US/NATO escalation. Biden approves US long range missiles fired into Russia; US & France provide Storm Shadow long range missiles in turn; Macron reportedly (by Le Monde) again discussing sending French troops; NATO planning document reveals plan for Poland-Romania-UK-Germany to divide up Ukraine; US general Bauer, head of NATO military commission publicly calls for ‘pre-emptive’ strike on Russia; Biden gives Ukraine another $700m and calls for another $24B and tells Ukraine to lower its draft age to 18; Trump NSA pick Gorka calls Putin a thug and warns US under Trump will double its aide, Trump selects neocon friendly NSA advisers raising doubt about his campaign promises to end the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Putin answers NATO/US escalation with new Oreshnik hypersonic missile with 36 warheads, lowers decision to use tactical nukes, threatens to hit any NATO base from which missiles are fired, signs mutual defense treaty with Iran, and gives warnings to west in speech in Kazakhstan.
A big debate in the mainstream media during the recent election was why do surveys show average American voters don’t believe the economy is doing as great as government data indicate? More specifically, why do they believe inflation is higher than reported by the Consumer Price Index? Today’s Alternative Visions show takes on that issue: why prices are higher than government price indexes report. Latest CPI report this past week said prices rose only 2.6% over the past year. (The companion government PCE report is even lower). What the media doesn’t report, however, is the various assumptions and questionable methodologies the government uses in estimating prices and inflation. Today’s show explains briefly 14 of them. Inflation is easily therefore not 2.6% but more than 4% in general. In some areas of the economy rose at double digit levels the past year. And since 2019 around 30-35%. The show concludes with evidence even prices per the government indexes are creeping back up. And several forces threaten in 2025 to escalate the rate of inflation as well (for gasoline, insurances, imports, child care and other services).
Today’s show topic is an assessment of the November 6 election and why Trump won. What were some interesting facts about both the electoral college vote outcome and the national popular vote totals that the mainstream media is ignoring? What new strategies Trump introduced that may have made a difference vs. old strategies Harris carried out that no longer resonate with voters>? Is there a political party realignment that is now beginning? Is Identity politics now DOA? The show concludes with some early predictions what Trump will focus on first after January 20. Why Austerity big social program spending cuts are coming. How will Trump handle the rise of the BRICS? (For my latest written article on the same topics go to https://jackrasmus.com/2024/11/08/why-trump-won-and-some-consequences/ ) Or to the LA Progressive blog for November 8.
the latest US Labor Dept jobs out today show a rapidly deteriorating jobs market. Not just in the media oft-cited CES (large corporations) jobs data but in the Labor Dept’s second CPS survey that picks up smaller businesses which is retreating even faster. CES jobs for October rose a mere 12,000. (And previous months were revised down to an average jobs growth of only 67,000/mo. July-Sept. Even worse, the CPS jobs survey showed -220,000 net employment fall in October. Full time jobs continued to disappear while part time rose. Other negative job stats were discussed in the show. Slowing jobs picture contradicts media hype the economy was doing great in third quarter. The second half of the show discusses the 3 existential issues in the current US election being totally ignored by both Harris and Trump: the massive and accelerating US budget deficits, national debt and interest payments on the debt, the big Austerity spending cuts coming in 2025 regardless who wins the election, and the BRICS challenge to the very foundations of the US global economy empire that is developing further as well with 13 new BRICS members joining the current 10. (For more on my analysis of the BRICS check out my Youtube interview along with Indian economist, S.L.Kanthan, at https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY )
Today’s show is dedicated to this past week’s historic BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia and how it represents the most serious challenge underway to US Global Economic hegemony. What are the key institutions of US global economic power? How do the BRICS alternative economic infrastructure challenge the dominance of the key US institutions and vehicles of US power: the IMF, World Bank, SWIFT, the $dollar, the twin deficits solution to recycling dollars, etc. A history of the origins and causes of the rise of the BRICS are discussed today. And how the BRICS are an existential challenge to US global economic dominance. For more on this topic, join the discussion on the same with myself and India economist, S.L. Kanthan, this coming Sunday, October 27, at 9am pacific time at: https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY?si=4lEsQnyhDtzd215u
Last Wednesday October 17 Ukraine’s de facto president, Zelensky, gave a speech to his Parliament explaining his 5 point Plan for victory in Ukraine’s war with Russia. It wasn’t a military roadmap but a political list of demands on the US and NATO. He had previously presented the plan to Biden and other head of Europe NATO countries who had clearly pre-vetted the presentation, including no doubt the 3 additional points in the Plan to the 5 announced. Today’s show discusses the 5 points announced, and suggests what the ‘secret’ (Zelensky’s words) 3 additional might have included. Following his speech to Ukraine’s Parliament, Zelensky gave it again to NATO representatives in Brussels. Then gave a press interview in which he admitted the ‘plan’ was essentially to bring NATO quickly into Ukraine, or else—as Zelensky told the press—Ukraine would be a nuclear weapon. A double blackmail of NATO and Russia. For more details and discussion of the consequences, listen to my Friday, October 19 show.
Today’s show focuses on upcoming November election. The status in the swing states is reviewed. How the candidates stand on the two key issues in the election per polls: Economy and Decline of Democracy in USA. Trump v. Harris proposals on issues appealing to working class voters in the key 3 northern swing states: taxes on tips, overtime pay, social security income, SALT, interest tax deductions on auto loans. The real condition of inflation since 2019. Conflicting stats on real wages and take home pay. The Labor Dept latest jobs report. The silent issue neither candidate is talking about: runaway deficits and national debt and nearly $1 trillion/yr interest payments on the debt now. Why whoever wins in November will propose severe Austerity programs. How the BRICS expansion and new financial world system represents an existential threat to US global economic hegemony and empire and how it will blowback on US economy. Show concludes with discussion how both parties are engaged in destruction of US democracy.
Why did ILA union leaders suspend their strike after just 3 days? Some reasons you won’t read in the mainstream media. The Union was in a very strong position to gain its demands, the most important being wage catch up and Artificial Intelligence threat to automate away jobs. After just 3 days the shippers also agreed to union’s demand for 62% wage hike (over 6 yrs.). Why so quickly as well? My Answer: Biden administration behind the scenes warned the ILA it would implement the Taft-Hartley law to force workers back for another 80 days if the union did not go back to work. This was the Biden ‘carrot’ to the ‘stick’ threat of Taft Hartlely. Shippers could easily afford the wage increase but want AI-automation more for long run profits. Now ILA union will resume negotiations in January 15 on the job security AI-automation issue, but without its current bargaining leverage of pre-election and holiday season strike. Second half of show addresses the Sept. jobs numbers explaining why 254k Sept new jobs vs. August’s 128k. Media confused as to the change. Listen to my simple explanation for the Aug v. Sept difference
today’s show addresses #1 issue in polls that US economy remains the key issue in the Nov 2024 elections with voter concern for inflation remaining at the core. Harris says inflation has ‘come down’ & Trump says prices remain unaffordable. Which is true? Both. The show reviews the current high plateaued level of prices, including housing, rents, gasoline, food, autos and insurances, between 25%-35% above 2019 depending on sources. The candidates ‘dueling tax’ cut promises are compared and the condition of 120m households’ debt now at record levels (mortgage, credit card, autos, student loans) with delinquencies beginning to appear. Ability of consumers to continue spending given minimal real wage raises, rising debt & declining household savings rate, rising poverty rate and 40% increase of use of food banks since 2022. Unemployment at 8% (not 4.3%) per govt’s U-6 statistic. The show concludes with discussion of recent Zelensky-Biden meeting and US media-elite criticism of Zelensky’s ‘Victory Plan’
Today’s show covers what’s behind Fed’s .50 pt rate cut? Powell says Fed because ‘economy is good’. More likely because US goods sector economy weak. Data shows US goods sector in recession. Fed GDP forecast for 3rd quarter 1.7%, closer to 1st quarter’s 1.4% not 2nd’s 2.8%. Why massive US deficits & debt will mean big austerity spending cuts in 2025 further deepening recession. Wars update: the Mossad ‘pager’ sabotage event and almost certain war against Hezbollah in north within weeks. Netanyahu’s strategy: get US in war with Iran. Zelensky’s pending ‘victory plan’ & political maneuvering behind allowing UK missiles to attack deep into Russia. Pentagon vs Neocons & why Biden delayed decision until 9-26. The EU’s desperate ‘plan B’ to fund Ukraine. Why it won’t work any more than ‘Plan A’.
first half of today’s show discusses the ominous escalation in the Ukraine war with US/UK approval for Ukraine to use US/UK long range missiles to target deep into Russia. Putin’s ominous warning of ‘war with NATO’. What happened to Zelensky’s ‘Victory Plan’? How Ukraine has been sabotaging efforts by BRICS to arrange negotiations. What’s happening on the Kursk and Donbass fronts in Ukraine. Political instability growing within NATO ranks (Germany, France, USA). Is Biden or the neocons now running the US govt? Why 32,000 Boeing workers rejected the pattern contract proposal. My review of the recent Trump-Harris presidential debate. Why neither candidate addressed the #1 issue of the economy according to polls. What was covered and not addressed in the debate. (For detailed print analysis read my article ‘The 2nd First Presidential Debate’ on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com (or on Counterpunch, LA Progressive, Z, or World Financial Review public blogs).
today’s show focuses on the condition of the US working class in terms of wages, jobs, debt, and unions as of labor day 2024 today. Citing various US government data sources, and contrary to the selective cherry picked stats that appear in the US mainstream media and cited by politicians, the picture for US workers today in terms of wages, jobs, debt and their unions show continued stagnation or decline over the past year, and especially since 2020. Even based on US government data sources, US economic GDP since 2021 has been weak given the $10 trillion plus fiscal-monetary stimulus since 2020. Workers’ wages continue to contract in real terms given the period of inflation. The jobs created have been far less than the Biden administration has claimed. And US unions continue to tread water in terms of membership. (For a published print version of this analysis, those interested may read the same analysis at my personal blog at https://jackrasmus.com/2024/09/02/labor-day-2024-the-condition-of-the-american-working-class-today/
today’s Alternative Visions show focuses in detail on the current status of the war in Ukraine in general, and specifically on the two main offensives in progress: Russia in the Donbass region and Ukraine in the Kursk region. What’s the status of forces on both sides. Why did Ukraine invade Kursk on August 6 and how is that progressing after two weeks? Did the Russians get caught off guard? Why did Russia invade Kharkov region last May and why is there a stalemate there? What’s happening in the Donbass region and why Russia is accelerating its gains there. Finally, by invading Kursk have the Ukrainians in effect decided to sacrifice the Donbass to Russia? Show concludes with a brief commentary on RFKjr’s decision to leave the US election race and endorse Trump. (Check out my blog jackasmus.com for a detailed print article, ‘A Tale of Two Offensives’ on Monday as well).
First half of show discusses Ukraine war and specifically what’s behind Ukraine’s recent invasion into Russia’s Kursk region. What’s Ukraine & Russia respectively strategies and objectives in Kursk. 3 Ukraine objectives. Russia objectives. Which side’s strategic reserves will be exhausted first? A detail discussion follows of today’s Wall St. Journal article (a CIA planted piece?) about who destroyed the Nordstream pipeline 2 yrs ago. Why the piece is part of media preparation to prepare public for removal of Zelensky after the US election. Why Ukraine negotiations are now impossible and China has ended efforts to arrange talks. Some reasons why Iran hasn’t responded to Israel yet. How Zionists in US are preparing to thwart student protests this fall. Second half of show turns to US economy and recent PPI and CPI reports last week. What’s declining in price and what’s not in July. The chronic and continuing big problem of Rents. How landlords are gaming prices as real US average weekly wages falling. What’s coming in producer prices. Continuing high level of consumer inflation for housing, food, gasoline now embedded in economy despite recent CPI reports. US Households’ record debt (mortgage, credit cards, auto, student, medical, etc.) as percent of income at 54%.
First half of today’s show discusses Ukraine’s offensive into Russia. What are Ukraine’s possible objectives? Initial successful tactics. Why did Russia not see it coming? Russia’s response to date and consequences for efforts to start negotiations. What’s the condition of the US real economy. Growing concern early phase of recession, as the goods sector of the economy weakens: unemployment rising, real retail sales contracting, PMI manufacturing continues 8th month of decline, net exports deeply negative, and construction turning down again. Explanations of actual GDP, inflation, jobs data. Investors call for emergency Fed rate cuts before Sept. Why the Fed won’t. How the tech bubble and Japan’s carry trade are interrelated
Show discusses likely major escalation of war in Middle East as Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon vow response to Israel’s assassinations. April 2024 Déjà vu but worse. US sending more aircraft carrier task force. Crisis imminent. Latest on Ukraine war as US and Russia announce sending intermediate range missiles to Poland-Belarus border. Some signs of secret discussions between US and Russia. Second half of show addresses big shift in US economy last week. Inflation no longer #1 issue. Recession now on agenda as Friday jobs report and earlier data on manufacturing, construction, and retail sales all show rapid slowing of US economy. JPM bank forecasts 50% chance recession. Fed will cut rates for certain in Sept (maybe earlier) as financial markets in US, Japan and global turn down sharply. Another ‘Black Monday’ for stocks possible next week on August 5. Iran signals attack Monday as well. Why US jobs report is far weaker than media reporting. Globally, Malaysia announces joining BRICS and more in Asia to soon follow as BRICS announce own int’l payments system.
Today’s show focuses on Biden’s 11 minute announcement he’s withdrawing from election 2024 and fact checks Biden’s 3 claims: 1. there’s no crisis at the US border…as 2m illegals/yr enter the USA; his claim US has not been at war anywhere during his term… vs. US forces today in Ukraine, Israel, & Yemen; and his claim the US economy is ‘best in the world’… vs. reality re. US inflation, jobs, household debt, surging US deficits-debt-interest, and actual GDP first half 2024 after statistical adjustments are removed. Show concludes with US wars Update for Ukraine (Zelensky-Trump phone call & Beijing’s diplomacy) and Yemen (Israeli escalation) and with latest news for BRICS on eve of their forthcoming announcement of an alternative global financial structure…and what it means for US domestic economy and empire.
today’s show updates US 3 wars (Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan) as critical strategic NATO meeting underway today. Ukraine: Orban’s meeting with Ukraine and Russia; Saudi’s leader MBS threatens Europe it will withdraw funds in EU banks if it seizes its $260B Russian assets; how falling US dollar (as BRICS implement own currency) will negatively impact US deficits, debt and real economy; NATO’s imminent ‘no fly’ zone-and what it means? Latest on Israel’s renewed bombing of northern Gaza cities as AIPAC intensifies attack on US universities. How Europe is becoming an economic dependency of USA. Second half of the show focuses on US economy: GDP, latest inflation report vs. real prices paid by consumers, ASA Report on US data reliability, why Median Annual Income for US family of four is really $96k not official $67k. Show concludes with review of growing pressures for Biden to step down (by donors, businesses, Hollywood celebrities)as polls show Biden continuing to lose ground in key 7 swing states.
New Ukraine war offensives (both Ukraine & Russia) coming by July 7. Putin’s visit to North Korea & Viet Nam as Russian response to US/EU bilateral defense deals with Ukraine. Are both sides lining up allies in preparation for a wider war? Similarities with summer 1914. Netanyahu out-maneuvers Biden (again). Is a larger war with Hezbollah near? US media blackout of Yemen war as Houthis winning Red Sea blockade. On he economic front: What’s happening in the US goods sector (construction-manufacturing)? Trump focuses on more business tax cuts as centerpiece of his economic program: proposes replacing corporate income tax with tariffs as CEOs push to end all US taxation on their foreign profits and reducing current 21% corporate tax rate to 15% for all business. What’s in Trump’s 2018 Tax Cuts 2.0 for 2025? The US Supreme Court’s rules against any future Wealth Tax on billionaires, saying US Constitution allows tax only on income not wealth (even though Constitution provides for taxation “from whatever source derived”). Meanwhile, SCOTUS protects Trump 2018 tax cut for corporations’ offshore profits. (Next week: the tightly scripted and controlled ‘debate’ between Biden and Trump later this week)
In today's latest of US wars update, support for Ukraine war in Europe weakening reflected in just held EU Parliamentary elections. Pro war parties in France and Germany suffer big setbacks in the elections. In Ukraine war escalation news, France promises Mirage jets & Germany sends Patriots systems. Intense fighting in Kharkhov front coming. What is Russia's strategy? The show reveals latest details how US/NATO/EU plan to keep funding Ukraine after 2024. What's happening in Red Sea? Latest US economy news: Trump announces replacing Income tax with tariffs. Latest US Inflation report. World Bank global GDP report and latest on Argentina Milei plan
First half hour of show is weekly update on US wars—Ukraine, Gaza, Red Sea and Taiwan: Biden and Zelensky both signal less stringent demands as condition for negotiations. Zelensky’s doomed Switzerland conference and weird trip to Singapore and Manila. Ukraine’s growing imbalance in combat troops and weapons vs. Russia. Actual Russian strategy: n big offensive but open multiple fronts and spread out Ukraine’s depleting reserves. Natanyahu thumbs his nose at Biden over Rafah and Biden’s real strategy. Whatever happened to the Red Sea war that’s unreported in US media. Why US Marines are now on Philippine islands in sight of Taiwan and training for landings. The latest on May US jobs report. Why 4% unemployment is 7.4% and rising over past year. Why latest 272,000 jobs is distorted by govt’s Birth-Death business model. Some interesting job stats re. job market over past 12 months shows weak not strong job market: Mostly management and professional jobs created past year. 700k leave the labor force (reducing unemployment rate). 750k involuntary part time job created and 650k increase in 2nd and 3rd job holders = most jobs created last year were 2nd/3rd part time jobs + management and professional jobs.
A number of critical events occurred in the US proxy war in Ukraine during the past week: Wall St. Journal describes US/EU plan to release $260B of Russian frozen assets in EU banks to fund Ukraine in 2025; NATO and US approve Ukraine use of long range missiles to strike within Russia, signaling a strategic escalation of the war. Ukraine strikes Russian intercontinental ballistic missile warning system deep inside Russia. One step closer to US-Russia nuclear exchange. Putin-Lavrov publicly say Russia already at war with NATO. Latest on Israel attack of Rafah city; US and UK renew bombing of Yemen; US CIA & NGOs maneuvering in the Caucasus region’s 3 countries. Putin visits central asia countries & signs deal for Afghanistan to provide contract troops for Ukraine war. Second half of the show addresses just released revised US GDP for 1st Quarter showing even slower growth at only 1.3% annual GDP growth. Consumer spending on goods, residential housing, and imports all adding to the slowdown while bus. Investment in factories and AI keeps GDP from slowing even further. Why IP category added to GDP in 2013 keeps the economy registering recession on paper GDP even if not in actual terms. Is the US economy on the way to a second post-Covid (2020-21) contraction (first double dip was in 2022)?
Focus on what’s happening in Europe and Its new plan to give profits from seized $260B of Russian assets to Ukraine. Russia’s seizure of Deutschbank & Commerzbank response. US media admits NATO ‘price cap’ sanction on Russian oil sales a failure. Biden spins it as a success. Ukraine war update: Zelensky no longer president but continues in office. The real strategic objective in Russia’s new Kharkov offensive. CIA and Mossad join forces setting entire Caucasus region on political fire. Some curious facts about Iranian president’s recent death. The show concludes with broad summary of state of US economy: home sales, PMIs, & commercial real estate funds (REITs) growing crisis; Yellen/US reject idea of 2% global wealth tax on millionaires; Pentagon spending hits $884B/yr.; highest paid US CEOs rake in $4B, up from $800m.
With BRICS conferences coming this year and fundamental challenges to US economic empire coming in 2025 and after, the US empire continues to react and fight back. Today’s show reviews the hot spots: In Ukraine, Russia military advances resulting in more NATO escalation including US signaling Ukraine it’s ok to use missiles to attack inside Russia; re China, US policy expands sanctions plus reintroduces a Trump tariff strategy as US tech corps in China begin to exit; in So. America, Argentina’s IMF-Banks model of super-neolib policies devastate the economy, crash the currency 90% and raise poverty to 58% in order to pay IMF & western banks bondholders; in Europe, US multiple US policies now driving Europe to deeper economic dependency on US and US political vassalage. Meanwhile, US economy slows steadily as both housing and manufacturing continue to contract, price gouging remains chronic, real wages slowing fast, real retail sales stagnate, and banks expand debt leverage while corporate profit margins, stock prices, and buybacks accelerate.
In critical week of the Ukraine war, NATO beginning to panic & threaten escalation: Macron, Cameron & Jeffries talk of NATO troops in Ukraine. Russia reacts announcing tactical nuke exercises and call in UK and French ambassadors. Assassination attempt on Zelensky foiled. Ukraine begins drafting prisoners. Russia Kharkov offensive begins early on May 10. Blinken-Yellen visit and threaten China. Importance of coming BRICS conference in June. Today’s show then turns to US domestic issues and discusses new Report of 11.4% rise in 2023 CEO pay to record median $23.7 million ( with stock awards up 20%). Shareholders returns also up 13.8% in 2023. All CEO & shareholder data =>3 times current inflation or wages. Trend to continue as Corp buybacks in 2024 to exceed $700B for Fortune 500(+ another $500B for dividends. Meanwhile, interest charges on student debt to rise to 6.5%-7.5% and Social Security Fund Trustees warn of inadequate funds for retirees coming
Today’s show reviews major developments in various global economies: In USA, the Fed’s latest decision to keep interest rates at current levels + its decision to start buying back US Treasuries (QE by another name perhaps?). Why the liquidity injection? Answer: growing concerns about US banks in 2025? Next, is China growing again or not? The idiocy of US policy toward China as Blinken and Yellen attack it economically but request it intervene on behalf of US with Russia and Ukraine. What’s happening in Europe with France announcing it will send troops to Ukraine as EU (and UK) economy stagnates. ECB chair, La Garde, worries about seizing $260B Russian assets. How this may lead to de-dollarization and de-euroization. What’s happening in Argentina as its peso is devalued by 50%. A deeper look at Office Commercial Real Estate in the USA, US Govt Debt, and US Treasury’s record level of current bond buying.
The first pass for US GDP for 1st Quarter 2024 was released last week. Today’s show dissects the areas generating growth vs. those slowing US economy. Takeaways from the data are discussed: Contracting now are consumer spending on goods, business private inventories and a big contraction in net exports. Only consumer spending on services continue to drive GDP as government spending slows but remains positive. The show explains why the 1.6% GDP rise in Jan-March was actually lower, once the adjustment for prices is more accurately estimated. Why and how the US low-balls inflation and thereby boosts real GDP. Real growth in US economy was therefore flat. The show then discusses why mainstream economists consistently get their forecasts of the economy wrong—prices, jobs, and GDP—because their forecast models contain multiple assumptions that are simply incorrect.
today’s show focuses on the theme of the impact of Russian sanctions since the start of the Ukraine war. How the sanctions have failed to impact Russia’s economy while simultaneously helping to wreck Europe’s, and especially the core German economy of the EU. A review of the relative economic data. Also discussed, are the pending US House vote tomorrow likely to pass another $100B in war aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, which will include reportedly US approval to distribute the $300B in seized Russian assets ($240B in Europe banks). This is how the US plans to continue financial support for Ukraine war in 2025, after the $61B ‘bridge’ fund in the US House bill. The show also addresses how US economic policies (of which sanctions are just a part) have undermined Germany’s economy and are making Europe increasingly dependent on the US. Discussion of the latest developments in the Israel-Iran and Ukraine wars concludes the show.
Today’s show covers the key events, economic & political, of the past week: US latest inflation numbers and trends, why Fed rate cuts are off the table, instability in regional banks and commercial real estate continue, Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s remarks on rate hikes at 8% and ‘soft landing’ scenario, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in China. In Politics, whether war between Israel-USA with Iran is imminent, latest developments on French & NATO troops in Ukraine, the coming Russian big offensive in Kharkov, Russia’s talk of ‘unconditional surrender’ and Ukraine’s desperate manpower shortage and its new draft law.
2024 is junctural year in Ukraine war. All three parties’ strategies—US/NATO, Ukraine, Russia—are in flux and changing as fallout from Ukraine’s summer 2023 offensive defeat by Russia continues to reverberate in political terms and as Russia offensive in 2024 emerges. What were the parties respective strategies in 2022, how did they shift in 2023, and how are they about to change again in 2024 are discussed in today’s show. Some likely scenarios by year end 2024 and US elections in November. Has NATO already lost, as more analysts now saying? Will NATO intervene directly before it is? The intro to the show comments on the just released jobs report for March and what the numbers mean for rising US inflation since January, Fed interest rate policy, and the surging US interest on the US $34T debt.
How the US economy is different today from 1930s and becoming increasing so due to technological change, financialization, and other forces. Why 21st century US fiscal and monetary policies are increasingly inefficient, ineffective and exacerbating the deficits, US debt, and running up unsustainable interest payments on the debt. Income and Wealth inequality thresholds for the 1% in the US economy today. Challenges faced for the future hegemony of the US empire-not just China, not even BRICS, but entire global South. Role of US $ and other institutions. The new alternative global financial structure coming. Why the US/NATO are losing (have already lost) the Ukraine war. (Dr. Rasmus announces further discussion of these trends is available on his blog, jackrasmus.com, in the Youtube file of the 2 hr. interview he gave this week to the Freethinkers Forum).
Latest on evidence of Moscow’s Mall Terrorist attack. Pros & Cons of evidence to date Ukraine sources’ involvement. Putin’s dire warning re. F-16s. Is Macron’s threat to send troops suspended? Will Europe re-arm and create its own defense industry? Euro economy stagnating vs. USA economy modest growth; Why is USA GDP positive in 2024? US recent Inflation statistics. Is the US Treasuries market growing unstable with $23T bonds issued in 2023? Janet Yellen in China and future of the US dollar.
Today’s show reviews 3 important speeches of the past week: by Putin, France’s president Macron, and US Senator, Chuck Shumer. Speeches related to the US 3 wars in progress: Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and Yemen. The Macron speech, an interview, reflected his retreat from the threat to send French-NATO (along with Baltics & Czech) to Ukraine. Deeper, it reflects chaos within EU/NATO as what strategy to implement now that Russia is defeating Ukraine and Trump-US may leave Europe holding the Ukraine war bag. Putin’s reply to Macron was if he (Macron) says there’s no longer any ‘red lines’, then Russia has none as well, including use of nuclear arms if Russia’s existence is threatened. Putin repeated his oblique suggestion again that the ‘west’ may take western Ukraine, which never was part of the Slavic homeland. Third speech by Shumer ‘warned’ Netanyahu was ‘out of control’ and elections should take place in Israel, clearly a message from Biden. All 3 US wars (proxy or direct as in Yemen) all going poorly. Show concludes with another ‘3s’: 3 economic reports in the US (CPI, PPI, and Retail sales) all showing a chronic inflation and emerging real economy slowdown developing.
Following initial comments on the Federal Reserve’s just issued Monetary Report’s warning about bank assets declining in value, this week’s show focuses on the topic of how US Presidents become multimillionaires after leaving office. Corruption by politicians promises to be a major campaign theme on both sides in the election this year. Republicans and Democrats are pushing their stories: Trump’s tax avoidance & Biden’s kickbacks through his son, Hunter Biden’s connections with oligarchs in Ukraine since 2016. (On that latter, the show asks questions about the recent arrest and ‘indefinite detainment’ of Alex Smirnov, the long time FBI informant who broke the news of the Hunter bribes by Ukrainian oligarchs). The show then identifies the various means by which US presidents typically become 7-figure multimillionaires after they leave office, citing examples from Reagan to Obama. The show concludes with some updates on the Ukraine war, including the EU’s plan to issue Euro-wide bonds to raise $54B for Ukraine and why it may not fly.
Today’s show is dedicated to a discussion of the current state of the War in Ukraine. The theme is an analysis of the military action and strategies of both sides since the February 2022 start of the war, using the benchmark of the Principles of War famously proposed by Von Clausewitz. Examined are the first Russian offensive of 2022 followed by the Ukrainian offensive later that year. Then the disastrous second Ukrainian offensive of fall 2023 that crashed on the rocks of Russia’s 2023 Defense in depth. What’s happened after fall 2023 to the present, as Russia’s second offensive now, in February 2024, appears to be rolling out in the east, with even bigger offensives emerging in the north and south. How do the Principles of War explain the seesaw military actions of the first two years of the war. The show ends discussing the new political strategies of NATO/US, Russia and Ukraine now in development as well. (For a published print version of the topics of today’s show go to: https://jackrasmus.com/2024/02/26/ukraine-war-and-the-ghost-of-clausewitz/
Today’s show looks at the important key economies of the world as a growing number begin to slip into recession: new data shows Japan’s economy has been contracting the past six months. Germany has entered recession. So too has the UK. The Eurozone economy as a whole is stagnant. Global manufacturing has been contracting for some months among the G7 economies. Meanwhile China faces growing problems in its property (construction) sector and with emerging deflation in consumer goods prices as producer prices also continue to fall for the past 16 months. Rasmus notes China home sales are now 1/6 of their peak at end of 2021 and then explains why deflation is even more serious than inflation. In the US, retail sales have turned negative, manufacturing is stagnant, and housing remains down 40% from its prior peak. At the same time both consumer and producer prices have started to rise once again. Can the US economy reach a ‘soft landing’ when the rest of the world key economies are slowing or in recession? (Next Week: Ukraine War military and political analysis as we enter 3rd year of war Feb. 25, 2024. Why a larger Russian offensive is imminent)
Dr. Rasmus analyzes the Tucker Carlson-Putin Interview in detail today. What did Putin say about the war, its causes, prospects and future of NATO?
Today’s show addresses the US media’s practice of reporting the most favorable statistics on jobs, unemployment, inflation, wages, GDP from the mountain of data provided by the US Labor and Commerce departments. Dr. Rasmus gives a deep dive into the statistical reports to show why job gains last month may not be 353,000 but much less; why Biden’s claim of 3.1m jobs created last year may be only a third of that; why inflation is higher than reported; why one US survey says unemployment rate is 3.7% but another table in that same survey indicates 8% unemployment rate; why real wages didn’t rise 4.5% last year for tens of millions of American workers but much less.
Today’s show is dedicated to dissecting the just released US first report on 2023 GDP by the Commerce Dept. Dr. Rasmus breaks down the various contributing elements to US GDP (Consumption, Business Investment, Government Spending, and Net Exports) to identify where the changes in GDP in 2023 were strongest and weakest. Explained as well is how the methodology for estimating inflation (GDP deflator price index) serves to low ball price changes and in turn boost the real GDP number of 2.5% for 2023. The methodology behind the GDP deflator is explained, and compared to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) with its higher estimate of inflation. Rasmus explains how changes to definition of GDP a decade ago also artificially boosted real GDP. Consumer spending held up in 2023 due to record credit card spending, drawdowns of savings and a surge in auto buying. Meanwhile, serious negative trends in business spending on equipment and housing construction continued in 2023 offset by a surprise jump in business spending on structures like factories; imports slowed faster than exports, and a sharp increase in 2023 in government spending on defense and state and local government all contributed (along with the low inflation adjustment) to the somewhat unexpected 2.5% GDP rise in 2023. Dr. Rasmus concludes, however, that the weaknesses within GDP do not ensure a ‘soft landing’ in 2024, which forecasts are saying will grow only 1-1.25% with recession in the first half of the year.
Whether ‘soft landing’ of the US economy—with inflation assumed to continue to abate and GDP to continue to grow—is in the works is the main topic of today’s show. Explained in depth is how US price index estimates are key to determine whether ‘soft landing’ will occur. Dr. Rasmus explains how the 3 US price indexes (CPI, PCE, GDP Deflator) are basically estimated, and why the lowest inflation estimator, the GDP Deflator, which is used to come up with GDP numbers, artificially boosts real GDP thus making a ‘soft landing’ look more likely. Rasmus also explains how artificial boosts to GDP were made possible by the redefinitions to GDP introduced in 2013 and in effect ever since. Explained is if the CPI were used to adjust for inflation instead of GDP deflator, and if the questionable 2013 redefinitions are backed out of GDP calculation, 2023 GDP would now be stagnant at best; and if a more accurate CPI were used (with an inflation rate of around 5-6%) GDP 2023 would already be contracting, with a further contraction coming in first half 2024 now that prices for energy and other services are rising again. Rasmus thus argues Soft landing scenarios are exaggerated by the Inflation indexes (especially the GDP deflator) as well as result of past GDP redefinitions. In the last third of today’s show Dr. Rasmus previews some of the content and themes in his latest forthcoming 2024 book, “American Empire in Decline”.
Today’s show reviews the main economic & political events of 2023. Topics on the Economy include: US GDP & ‘Soft Landing’ talk; Inflation and Jobs trends; the March 2023 regional bank crisis; US Budget >$1T Deficit & $34T National Debt; the June US Debt Ceiling deal in Congress; major union strikes and contract negotiations; Chat-GPT & Artificial Intelligence; the Federal Reserve’s interest rate pause; Russian sanctions; Ukraine War funding; China’s economy and global economic slowdown. Topics on the Political front include: Israel-Hamas War; Ukraine’s Failed Military Offensive; US House Speaker change; Biden’s Impeachment hearings; Colorado and Maine State Ballot denials; Trump’s polling lead over challengers; RFKjr candidacy; AIPAC attack on US college presidents; Taiwan almost war; SCOTUS ethics & decisions; BRICS expansion; Putin’s Speech & Mideast Trip. Today’s show also briefly comments on the implications for US democracy of the Colorado & Maine decisions to deny Trump ballot status. (Next show on January 12 will focus on economic and political predictions for 2024)
Today’s show addresses two important developments of the past year. Dr. Rasmus reviews the major union contract settlements of the past year (Railroad, Teamsters, Longshore, Auto) to determine if the past 44 yrs of union concession bargaining has finally ended in major contract negotiations in the USA. Concession bargaining ‘markers’ like 2-tier wages, in benefits, hiring of temps, ending of COLAs, and other contract provisions are reviewed. Result: Latest Teamsters (UPS) and Auto Workers contracts mark the end of concession bargaining. Not so clear re. railroad workers and writers and actors, however. So mixed picture. But positive trend. The show also dissects the latest CPI inflation report showing continuation of the trend of goods prices decline but services prices stuck at 5-6% for months. Rasmus concludes Fed has decided to ‘live with’ 5%+ services inflation and not raise rates further (which have limited effect on prices in 21st century in any event). Fed’s decision now resulting in big surge in stock and bond prices and wealth of investors.
Just released US jobs numbers for November are reviewed in first half of the show. Not much change from October, with services sector jobs still growing and goods sector jobs slightly declining. Both reflect the US economy growth/no growth condition with manufacturing & construction continuing to contract while services continue to expand. Inflation statistics reflect the same, with goods prices falling (especially gasoline & energy) while key services prices continue to rise around 5%. US economy is stuck in same place last 3 months. Second half of the show addresses Ukraine war as Congress to vote on aid for Ukraine. Prediction is it will provide some token aid BUT only if Biden agrees to demands by Republicans for border wall and money. Dr. Rasmus predicts as well the war in Ukraine is over, in military terms. Fighting will continue but Ukraine has effectively lost. Other topics include strategic significance of Putin’s Mideast tour and recent US polls showing only 28% of US households now approve of Biden’s handling of the economy. (Next week: Latest inflation stats and how presidents become multi-millionaires).
Today’s shows raises the expose of Zelensky government corruption that US mainstream media has been assiduously avoiding. Actor Danny Trejo just spilled the beans on another Zelensky grift. US celebrities who have been trekking to Kiev apparently get paid $150,000 for their photo op with Zelensky, providing they kick back $50K in cash to Zelensky himself (whose wife just bought a $70m property in Cyprus). Rasmus asks if Z get the original $150k per US celebrity visit from the $1B per month the US gives Ukraine to pay for the wages and pensions of all Ukraine government workers? Dr. Rasmus notes the corruption level appears to be rising as Ukraine’s army retreats from multiple war fronts and talk of a coup of the Zelensky government now grows. Dr. Rasmus reviews the state of the war and political instability in Ukraine amid rumors of Ukraine generals talking a deal with their Russian counterparts and restates his prediction the war will be over by this summer.
Today’s show discusses the growing media spin on the US economy that it’s headed for a ‘soft landing’—i.e. no recession as inflation continues to abate. Dr. Rasmus dissects the 3rd quarter US GDP numbers of 4.9% annual growth rate that is feeding the soft landing hype. The four major elements of GDP are reviewed, showing 3rd Quarter was an aberration driven by business over-expansion of inventories in expectation of a surge in consumer spending in 4th quarter that is now not appearing. What’s really happening with real consumer spending and retail sales, adjusted for inflation; real wage incomes; categories of business investment; and US exports in a global economy slowing noticeably. Rasmus explains how nearly all the slowdown in inflation is in the goods sector, and that manufacturing & construction are in a recession since early 2023. The result: the more likely scenario for winter 2023/24 is therefore US GDP will slow sharply and recession in 2024 beyond the goods sector is likely.
The Fed this past week held off raising interest rates once again. Or did it? Dr. Rasmus explains why the Fed may have paused raising short term rates but it is simultaneously raising long term Fed interest rates (10,30 Treasury bonds). Rasmus explains how the Fed is flooding markets with excess Treasury sales in order to raise funds to cover the US $2T budget deficit, an act driving up long term US Treasury rates. Fed chair Powell faces growing contradictions in monetary policy: higher short term rates destabilize regional banks & real estate markets (commercial & residential), but long term rate hikes undermine Treasury markets. Fed has no alternative, needing to raise more than $1.5T in next 6 months from sale of Treasuries in order to cover the $2T US budget deficit. Contradictions in US fiscal policy (deficits, debt) are thus exacerbating monetary policy & financial markets, Rasmus explains. The ‘spin’ that Fed policy has produced a ‘soft landing’ of the real economy is next debunked. The show concludes with updates on the Ukraine war, how Russian forces are growing in number while Ukraine’s manpower & weapons fade-as Zelensky quarrels with his generals. In Israel’s war on Hamas, Dr. Rasmus argues 4 US aircraft carriers at and en route to the region represent US planning for potential war with Iran, not simply military support for Israel. A point further suggested by resolutions just passed by the US Congress calling for war with Iran
The just released preliminary estimates for US third quarter 2023 GDP, showing how the estimated 4.9% annual rate of US growth is actually much lower than reported. Rasmus explains how GDP in 2013 was redefined, boosting its number by more than $500B a year. Also how US low balls the inflation adjustment to GDP to get a higher number. Prospects for GDP in coming 4th and 1st Quarter 2024 are forecast at less than 1% a quarter—as both consumer spending and business investment ‘core’ of GDP slow significantly. (Core GDP in 3rd quarter only half, 2.5%, of the 4.9% already). The show next discusses the Israel-Hamas war, the strategies of the US and Israel, the massive US military buildup in the region (including 4 aircraft carriers & subs now) and the increasing likelihood of a US-Iran war that the neocons desperately want. Final comments also offered on the status of the US proxy war in Ukraine now that Zelensky has ordered his generals to go on the defensive everywhere, marking the official end of Ukraine’s failed summer offensive.
Dr. Rasmus comments on a Wall St. Journal report of Sept. 8 admitting that revisions to US data and reports are showing bigger swings in corrections and occurring more often. The show addresses his oft-stated view that the Covid recession fundamentally impacted labor, product and financial markets in ways that US data and statistical reports have not caught up to yet, thus the more frequent and greater revisions to the data. Rasmus explains how JOLT stats (job openings to unemployment ratio), employment surveys, and inflation stats are growing more inaccurate in the post-Covid era. The show then describes how housing, energy, and food prices have begun to rise again and the reasons why Fed interest rate hikes don’t have as great an impact on lowering demand and therefore prices. The show ends with a return to the topic of labor exploitation begun a few weeks ago, showing how aggregate data of relative shares, CO to worker pay, productivity, and Prof. Saez data on the income and wealth of richest 1% households in US continues to rise after every recession. (Next week: How Classical Economists from Adam Smith to Marx explained labor exploitation and why exploitation has been intensifying once again under Neoliberalism since 1980 and especially after 2008-09 crash).
Today’s show main theme discusses how the Biden administration and mainstream media are spinning the latest jobs and inflation reports. The official ‘messaging’ by politicians and media alike is that both jobs and inflation are steadily-if slowly-improving. The messaging: the August jobs ‘cooled’ to 187,000; inflation moderated to 3% down from last year’s 9% peak, and wages are rising. Speaking around the country, Biden claims that jobs, inflation, and rising wages show ‘Bidenomics’ is working. But a closer look at the data since April 2023 shows little progress the past four months: since April 2023 job creation is stuck at around 180,000/mo; services inflation likewise stuck at around 6%; and wages rising mostly for the highest paid 10% of the labor force (and for some at the bottom as minimum wages laws take effect) leaving the ‘great middle’ behind. Dr. Rasmus argues the truth is in the details, not aggregate averages, and shows most of the jobs created last 3 months were 520,000 part time, low paid, service work, of which 321,000 were 2nd and 3rd jobs, low paid, with few benefits. At the same time, 311,000 full time jobs have disappeared since April. Similarly since April, services inflation (80% of economy) remains ‘stuck’ at around 6% while wage gains continue to be ‘skewed’ to the top 10% and bottom extremes of the labor force. Bidenomics is thus bypassing the middle class! Rasmus further predicts the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, the US economy slow, US$ rise and exports fall, bank lending continue to decline, housing and manufacturing continue to contract, and consumer spending will slow sharply in 4th quarter and beyond.
The show begins with an analysis of the past week of the death of Wagner mercenary forces leader, Prigozhin. The show then moves to the main topic: the forces driving the Fed to continue to raise interest rates; for certain this September but possibly even after. At minimum, US rates will remain high for some time. Chronic high services inflation plus emerging new forces globally that keep pressure on chronic inflation and Fed need to raise rates. Rasmus adds that record Fed Treasury sales will add to that pressure and rate hikes, as the Fed needs to sell ever more Treasuries in order to cover US budget deficits. And add still further the rise of the BRICS and declining demand for US dollars
Dr. Rasmus debunks Biden’s and other Dem party notables’ ( HRC, Reich, Krugman)celebration of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on its one year anniversary. Why the IRA has had no impact on inflation but is best understood as part of the 2022 trifecta of Biden bills (including Chips Act & Infrastructure Act) that together provided $1.65T in direct subsidies and tax cuts to US corporations. Rasmus next explains the current structure of inflation, now rising again with services inflation (80% of economy) stuck at 6%+ for the past three months. The chronic inflation reflects the growing contradictions of Fed monetary and interest rate policy and why US deficits funding requirements by means of US Treasury securities will continue to drive interest rates higher in coming months. The show next discusses the growing int’l crisis in the Sahel area of Africa, in particular the country, Niger, and what it means for French neo-colonialism and US future intervention. The show concludes with an initial discussion of ‘exploitation’ and why exploitation of American workers has been intensifying ever since 1980. Various statistical measures of exploitation are provided, including forms of ‘secondary’ exploitation of labor as well as primary.
Dr. Rasmus discusses in depth the causes and consequences the Fitch Credit Rating Company’s decision this past week to downgrade the US government’s credit worthiness. What’s behind the decision? What are some of the consequences? Rasmus reviews the past 22 yrs of rising US deficits and debt and why deficits continue to rise more than $1 trillion a year, the national debt surpasses $34T now (going to $43T) and the economic implications of annual interest payments on the debt now exceeding $600B/yr (going to $900B). The contradictions are intensifying for US Neoliberal Fiscal Policy as well as Neoliberal Monetary Policy. What Fed rate hikes have had minimal effect on services inflation and now threaten to exacerbate US regional banking and commercial real estate sectors of the economy. How the imminent shift by the BRICS economies toward trading in their own currencies (instead of $) will exacerbate monetary policy contradictions, US inflation and GDP. Dr. Rasmus reviews today’s Jobs Numbers, which show little change in services jobs (and inflation) over the past year. (Next Week: What Is Labor Exploitation and How Has It Intensified Since 1980)
With Teamsters-UPS contract negotiations deadline of end of July approaching, the Writers-Sag-Aftra unions’ strike continuing, and Auto workers about to begin bargaining to reverse past concessions, is union Labor about to rise again? Dr. Rasmus describes the various forces behind US labor’s ‘Great Detour’ that began in the late 1970s and continuing now for more than four decades: offshoring of jobs, free trade deals, deregulation of transport and communications, shift to services, substitution of precariate jobs (part time, temp, gig), ‘WalMart Effect’, pro-company NRLB & court shift, atrophy of minimum wage and wage guarantees, top union leadership dependency on the Democrat party, expanding of open shop and anti-labor legal offensives, etc. What happened with last year’s Railroad Union negotiations. Will new leadership of Teamsters and Auto workers unions and new worker militancy mean the beginning of the end of the ‘Great Detour’ of union labor in America? The show then describes why Biden’s current tour promoting his economic policies are not what they seem. Rasmus describes the truth about jobs, wages, inflation, and GDP today.
The mainstream media is now spinning last week’s inflation reports to message that inflation is now under control, therefore the Fed won’t need to raise rates further, and that in turn means a ‘soft landing’ with no recession. Dr. Rasmus dissects both the consumer price index and producer price index reports issued last week. Reports show that ‘goods’ (manufactured things and construction) prices have abated in price, but Services prices (80% of US economy) remain stuck in the 5-6% annual range. In fact, June CPI shows services prices rising more (6.2%) compared to May (5.3%). While some sectors of services are declining (airline,hotels prices) rents remain high. Simultaneously, after falling sharply, energy (gasoline, etc.) prices are rising again as are commodities, housing and utilities. Rasmus explains some of the questionable methods the US Labor Dept uses to dampen actual price hikes—like ‘owners equivalent rent’, ‘hedonic pricing’, outmoded ‘weights’ given certain goods, and by selectively using 14 different ‘base periods’ for different key items in the index. Rasmus concludes, services inflation and price gouging remain the defining conditions of current chronic inflation. And that the Fed can’t raise interest rates higher without further exacerbating the regional banking instability
This past week the Biden administration launched a new PR offensive, touting its package of economic policies as a reversal of ‘trickle down’ economics the past 40 years. Bidenomics is supposed to be a break from the past 4 decades of Neoliberal economic policies. In today’s show Dr. Rasmus debunks the current ‘Bidenomics’ PR offensive, describing how it is a continuation of classical Neoliberal policy (fiscal, monetary, industrial and external) since Reagan. Rasmus defines the essential features of Neoliberal fiscal, monetary, industrial and trade/external policies and then fills in the details of Biden policies showing they are classic Neoliberal. Rasmus argues the ‘Bidenomics’ PR offensive is also classic neoliberal ideology (ideology defined as conscious misrepresentation of fact and reality in the service of special interests by manipulation of language). Summarized, Bidenomics is the continuation of neoliberal ‘trickle down’. Rasmus concludes with an assessment of the 4 dimensions of neoliberal economic policy future and the growing theme on the left that Neoliberalism is in growing crisis. Rasmus agrees 3 of the 4 areas of Neoliberal policy are facing growing contradictions and crisis, with the exception of neoliberal industrial policy (anti-union, anti-strike, wage-benefit compression, privatization, deregulation) remaining strong under the Biden administration. (For an analysis of evolution of Neoliberal policy from late 1970s until 2020, check out Dr. Rasmus’s book “The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump”, Clarity Press, 2020)
Dr. Rasmus examines some facts about Russia’s mercenary Wagner group and its leader, Prighozin, recent mutiny. What are some interesting facts behind the origin of the rebellion not reported by the US mainstream media? The show next addresses in depth the US Supreme Court’s decision to scuttle Biden’s proposed $10-$20K student debt forgiveness proposal. Why 43.5m student debtors can’t get any relief, while 25m small businesses had their $900B in loans under the Covid PPP program expunged by the government and SCOTUS said nothing? The scam called the Student Loan program is discussed in detail and what the SCOTUS decision may mean for all businesses. The show concludes with an examination of whether Biden’s economic policies (aka Bidenomics) represent a crisis for US neoliberal policy in general. Why Biden’s policies are classic neoliberal but also reveal a growing crisis in US neoliberal policy in its monetary, fiscal and trade/dollar variants. (For more on the Prighozin Rebellion, check out Dr. Rasmus’s July 1 blog piece: ‘Prighozin’s Rebellion and the Third Offensive’ at his blog, http://jackrasmus.com
What’s behind the Fed’s decision to temporarily halt rate hikes this past week? Then raise rates later again this year? Dr. Rasmus explains the Fed is more concerned in the short run with exacerbating the continuing regional banking crisis than intensifying efforts to slow inflation by raising rates. Fed policy faces a contradiction: raise rates and worsen banking system instability (which the Fed has been offsetting with weekly injections of $95B to stabilize since March), or, not raise interest rates for a while and live with inflation. Rasmus dissects the latest CPI report that shows continuing services sector inflation of 6.3%-6.6%, even as goods inflation has moderated and energy inflation fallen significantly from last year’s highs. Rasmus explains how and why monetary policy faces growing contradictions and is becoming increasingly ‘inefficient’ (i.e. high rates don’t reduce inflation as effectively as in times past, while lowering rates to zero have less effect on stimulating the economy as well. The causes are late neoliberal capitalism’s globalization and financialization. How and why fiscal policy is also facing growing contradictions and why US global economic hegemony is weakening as de-dollarization trends also appear to be gaining momentum.
Why is inflation in China virtually zero while it remains chronically high in the US and Europe around 5% and more? Dr. Rasmus describes the forces continuing to keep prices high in the ‘west’ and why China’s economy has little of the same. Supply side issues, corporate price gouging, net exports import prices, currency values, and productivity/unit labor costs—all driving inflation in US—are conspicuously absent in China. The second half of the show addresses the emerging Ukrainian military offensive-the third such during the war. Rasmus explains the dynamics of the first two offensives (Russia in spring 2022 and Ukraine’s in late summer 2022), why both succeeded and failed, and the line up of current forces on both sides in the current third Ukrainian offensive. The importance of concentration of forces (first principal of warfare) in all three offensives and why Ukraine’s latest offensive is likely to fail. Scenarios political and military that could follow. Prediction: negotiations will begin before year end 2023 and it’s likely Zelensky will not be at the table.
The May jobs report: why one govt survey shows 339K new jobs and another shows -440k more unemployment. The final version of the Debt Ceiling deal is then reviewed, including last minute Senate additions requiring retroactive student debt interest payments. The Deal as classic Neoliberal capitalist fiscal policy: Pentagon gets $886B (+more in ’24). Discretionary social spending gets cut $2.1T (18%). No tax hikes to pay for projected further $4T deficits & debt (at $35T or more in 2025) Other details of Deal. Rasmus then discusses whether Fed will ‘pause, skip or raise’ interest rates again next meeting. Why US economy ‘goods producing’ sector recession is deepening and will spill over to services by year end 2023.
Dr. Rasmus describes the likely terms of an imminent debt ceiling deal about to be announced this weekend. Reportedly ‘caps’ will be imposed on non-defense social program spending in a two year agreement, while Pentagon spending will rise 11% in the 2024 fiscal budget and an undisclosed further rise in 2025. Some of the possible details are considered: left over Covid funds, student debt cancellation, IRS hiring, work requirements to receive food stamps and Medicaid, fossil fuels licensing and environmental reviews. The NY Times estimates a 18% cut in non-defense spending while Pentagon spending (and higher still total Defense spending) rises. No tax increases to pay for the Pentagon hikes, especially no changes in Trump’s $4.5T 2017 tax cuts. Meanwhile, the CBO estimates failure to reverse the Trump tax cuts will result in a $2.7 trillion boost to the US deficit and debt, now at $31.4 trillion. How real is the US debt default if no deal? And what are some constitutionality issues
What’s behind the debt ceiling negotiations? Is June 1 the real deadline date? Dr. Rasmus describes what’s happened to the national debt since 2000 and the causes for its rise from $4T to $31.4T and why interest on the debt is projected to accelerate rapidly to nearly $1T/yr by end of this decade.
How much have the declining share of tax revenue contributed to the annual US budget deficits and thus the national debt? War and Defense spending? Social program spending? Rasmus reviews the various fiscal policies since Covid—3 Covid relief spending plans in 2020-21 followed by 3 business subsidy and investment plans in 2021-22 by Biden.
Why the debt ceiling negotiations are really a cover about how much social program spending to cut in the next federal budget beginning October 1, 2023. Once the debt ceiling is raised again, what’s the prospect for further budget deficits and still more increases in the US national debt?
In this week’s show Dr. Rasmus takes a ‘deep dive’ into last week’s Consumer and Producer Price Index Reports. Conclusions: Fed record rate hikes have shaken out demand driven causes of inflation but further gains will require even higher interest rate hikes. March CPI at 5% has improved only to 4.9% for April. Inflation reduction has ‘stalled out’. The reduction thus far has impacted energy and some food—i.e. what’s called ‘headline inflation’ but has left ‘core’ inflation (all rest) virtually unchanged at 5.5% for most of past year. Producer prices (that eventually drive consumer prices) are actually rising again. Energy (gasoline) costs and travel costs will again rise in coming months while business unit labor costs will rise due to collapsing US productivity and continuing price gouging by monopolistic corporations (ex: bakery goods) and rents hikes by landlords.
The show begins with two questions: Will the Fed’s recent interest rate hike last week be its last? Has the Fed failed in its inflation objective, given the continuing rise of prices in the US services sector? Discussion then turns to the latest developments in the regional banking crisis with last week’s failure of First Republic and new banks new experiencing stock price collapse: PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance and First Horizon. Rasmus explains why the banking crisis is not over and compares the current bank instability with the prior financial crisis in spring-summer 2008. Why the current bank instability may prove even more serious than 2008. The show concludes with a discussion of 2 key reports issued the past week: the US productivity report showing a decline of -2.7% for Jan-March 2023—the 5th consecutive quarter fall and the longest decline since data began in 1948; And last Friday’s most recent jobs report for April showing 253,000 jobs and the unemployment rate continuing to drop. Rasmus explains why the Fed’s major focus on the JOLT (10m unfilled jobs) statistic of 10m is grossly inaccurate with half of which ‘ghost’ jobs
Dr. Rasmus picks up the discussion on the global de-dollarization trend from last week, focusing on the Congressional Budget Office’s April Report “The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects” analysis—i.e. the official US govt view of the trend. How accurate is the CBO Report’s conclusion that the Euro poses no threat to displace the dollar (and actually will decline) and that the threat from the China ‘Yuan’ currency is currently minimal, will rise only gradually, and even if China economic growth significantly exceeds the USA’s, the use of its currency is held back by China policies. CBO identifies 3 ‘wild cards’ that may accelerate the dollar’s decline (as both reserve and trading currency): world war, severe financial crisis in US, shift to digital currencies. Rasmus critiques the report by ignoring current developments like US sanctions and war in Ukraine driving a shift from the dollar to a expanded BRICS-based currency. The show also addresses the latest events in the US banking & financial system instability, specifically today’s announced failure and coming govt bailout of First Republic bank, and the growing instability in the US commercial real estate market.
Dr. Rasmus reports on several latest data releases showing growing slowdown of US economy: latest housing states -2.4%; manufacturing PMIs contracting faster; and US leading economic indicators down -7.8% year on year, the worst seen since 19981 recession. Second half hour of the show begins the analysis of the emerging decline of the US dollar, a key lynchpin in the US global economic empire. The forces driving up the value of the dollar in the short run recently and the emergence of longer run developments undermining the dollar as global currency are discussed. Distinguishing between the $ as dominant global trading currency and as global reserve currency. Why $ as reserve currency has thus far fallen from 80% to 60%. And as trading currency to 60%. How US sanctions on Russia is driving China and expanding BRICS toward alternative currency solutions to trade. General view of the negative implications for US economy in longer run. Why the $ will continue to decline as global currency. (Next week: A deeper look at CBO’s just released report in April: “The US Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects”)
Dr. Rasmus reviews important news events of this past week: US jobs report, Chase Bank CEO, Jaime Dimon’s letter to shareholders, OPEC announcement of big production cuts, China’s brokering of deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, expanding trade using China Yuan currency instead of US dollars, and Macron’s visit to China. Following discussion of these events, Dr. Rasmus reviews the military strategies and status of the war in Ukraine during its first year. Where will the announced new spring 2023 military offensives by Ukraine and Russia likely occur? How the historic ‘principles of war’ (concentration of forces, mobility and surprise, reserves, internal lines of supply, etc.) have played—and will continue to play--a role in the war.
Today’s show begins with discussion of several reports issued this past week: first, evidence by the Wall St. Journal that the 11m open jobs reported by the US Labor Dept’s ‘JOLT’ statistic may be wrong; second, why widespread media reports that the banking crisis is now stabilized are wrong; and, third, why weekly unemployment benefit claims per a Bloomberg News report represent only 25% of workers actually newly unemployed each week. Dr Rasmus then discusses a fourth report this past week by Goldman Sachs bank research indicating that up to 300 million jobs will be negatively impacted (lost jobs or hours of work reduced) as a result of the accelerating implementation of Artificial Intelligence by businesses. Rasmus explains fundamentally what AI is, its enabling technologies, and how AI will destroy millions of simple decision making jobs by eliminating many occupations or sharply reducing hours of work in those occupations. Rasmus reports 1300 tech experts this past week (including Musk) issued a written warning calling for a moratorium on AI and ChaptGPT. But AI is too profitable and the AI tech train has left the station. The show concludes with discussing how AI is critical for advanced military weaponry and is much of the basis of US attack on China’s tech industry today
Dr. Rasmus explains how the Fed is ultimately behind the current banking crisis. Distinguishing between causes of the crisis that are ‘fundamental’, ‘enabling’, and ‘precipitating’, Dr. Rasmus explains how the Fed’s pumping $9T of free money (lowering rates to zero in the process) since 2008 created the recent bubbles in Tech and Cryptos that burst and is now bringing down regional banks exposed and over-invested in those sectors. Fed is the ultimate ‘fundamental’ cause. Rasmus explains the ‘enabling’ and further contributing causes of banks’ mismanagement and government deregulation of the sector. And the Fed once again as the ‘precipitating’ cause as result of its unprecedented rapid rise in interest rates over the past year. How the US banking crisis has contributed in part to the simultaneous collapse of Credit Suisse bank in Europe and what’s happening their in its wake. How the current crisis in US and Europe is both similar and different from the crisis of 2008-10 (and 2010-14 in southern Europe’s banks). Rasmus notes how all this was predicted in his 2017 book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes’ and why it represents a general contradiction and crisis of capitalist monetary policy in the 21st century. (for print version analyses of the banking crisis and the Fed’s role, check out Dr. Rasmus’s blog, http://jackrasmus.com for posting of recent articles on the crisis and the Fed)
Dr. Rasmus gives an update on US and global banking instability in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank a week ago this friday. What exactly happened at Silicon Valley Bank and is that process occurring elsewhere? What is the role of the Federal Reserve in causing and precipitating the crisis? Have the efforts of the Fed and big banks to staunch the crisis in the US regional banks in recent days working? Is the Fed solution in the short run the cause of future banking instability in the longer run? What happened to bank regulation after Dodd-Frank Act? The three indicators of continuing bank instability. What’s happening at Credit Suisse bank in Europe? Similarities and differences with 2008 crisis. What does it all mean for future Fed rate hikes (next week) and Fed strategy to slow inflation? Consequences of the current banking crisis for US real economy and global economy. (Check out Dr. Rasmus’s print article on these topics this weekend at his blog, http://jackrasmus.com)
Dr.Rasmus discusses the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in California in last 24 hrs and what it means for the Tech sector and potential financial instability. Stocks & bond mkts plummet in response. Fear of uncertain contagion effects over the weekend. 250 companies with potential asset losses + SVBs largest investor: US Home Loan Bank (yes, believe it or not). What SVB and financial instability means for the Fed’s rate hike policy, as rates get pushed to 6% now. Why Fed won’t continue to hike rates to 6% if financial instability happens. And if so, why Fed rate hikes won’t be sufficient to reduce even Demand inflation. Today’s jobs report shows another 311,000 jobs, making rate hikes more likely. Rasmus shows, however, most jobs are part time service while layoffs in tech, transport, warehouse already rising. Why contradictions in economic policy are intensifying and hard landing recession more likely.
In today’s show Dr. Rasmus discusses the dimensions of the current attack on the social security system taking shape behind the curtain of the Debt Ceiling negotiations and just before Biden releases his final budget proposals for 2023 next week (listen to our next week’s Alternative Visions show on that subject). Rasmus describes the main elements of the new cuts to Social Security being proposed by the latest group of Senators: creating a so-called Sovereign Wealth Fund that will invest in private financial markets; raising the payroll tax; and raising the retirement age to 70 starting 2025. The history and evolution of the social security system is described, from 1938 to present and how the key year revisions in 1986 created a massive $trillion SURPLUS in social security by 2000; how that surplus has been depleted since by Bush, Obama and Trump. He 4 funds of social security trust are described and financed (retirement, medicare, medicare advantage, prescription drugs). Why just raising the income limit of $160,200 ‘cap’ would enable social security financing for 75 years more AND increase retirement benefits. Rasmus explains how attacks on social security always occur when politicians shift fiscal spending to Austerity and social program spending cuts which is now occurring. (Next week: Biden’s final budget proposals).
Dr. Rasmus revisits his article of January 2022 in which he predicted reasons why the US wanted Russia to invade Ukraine and why the invasion of February 24, 2022 happened. The show initially discusses the past year’s sanctions on Russia and its economic effects (and lack thereof) on the Russian economy. Economic indicators of the Russian economy (per the independent source, tradingeconomics.com) are reviewed, showing neither Russia’s currency, its oil production, oil exports, manufacturing, employment levels, business confidence, or inflation have been seriously impacted by the sanctions. Why the US may now, in its latest sanctions, be preparing to use ‘secondary sanctions’ on India and other countries to enforce failing primary sanctions. Dr. Rasmus then revisits each of the 10 points of his January 2022 article to verify the 10 reasons: Results indicate the US has ‘succeeded’ in achieving at least 8 of the 10 objectives it sought by luring Russia to invade. (For further analysis see the re-posting of the January 2022 article and a subsequent ‘Revisiting the 10 Reasons..” on Dr. Rasmus’s blog, http://jackrasmus.com this weekend). NEXT WEEK on Alternative Visions: A review of the military and geopolitical objectives and consequences of the Ukraine War after one year.
Dr. Rasmus revisits his article of January 2022 in which he predicted reasons why the US wanted Russia to invade Ukraine and why the invasion of February 24, 2022 happened. The show initially discusses the past year’s sanctions on Russia and its economic effects (and lack thereof) on the Russian economy. Economic indicators of the Russian economy (per the independent source, tradingeconomics.com) are reviewed, showing neither Russia’s currency, its oil production, oil exports, manufacturing, employment levels, business confidence, or inflation have been seriously impacted by the sanctions. Why the US may now, in its latest sanctions, be preparing to use ‘secondary sanctions’ on India and other countries to enforce failing primary sanctions. Dr. Rasmus then revisits each of the 10 points of his January 2022 article to verify the 10 reasons: Results indicate the US has ‘succeeded’ in achieving at least 8 of the 10 objectives it sought by luring Russia to invade. (For further analysis see the re-posting of the January 2022 article and a subsequent ‘Revisiting the 10 Reasons..” on Dr. Rasmus’s blog, http://jackrasmus.com this weekend). NEXT WEEK on Alternative Visions: A review of the military and geopolitical objectives
Dr. Rasmus takes a deep look at last week’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports. A detailed summary of his view of the various supply forces causing inflation and demand forces. Why inflation remains mostly supply side driven, not demand driven, and why the Fed won’t slow inflation much further despite continuing interest rate hikes in 2023. Supply forces include: global supply chain issues, war and sanctions, global commodity price speculators, widespread price gouging by monopolistic corps in the US, and in general record falling productivity (and rising unit labor costs) for US businesses being passed on to consumers. Dr. Rasmus reviews the US ‘productivity crisis’ driving unit labor costs in particular. The show concludes with recap of statistics on US GDP slowdown after $8T in fiscal monetary stimulus and the causes of US deficits and national debt now at $31T and projected to rise another $12T by end of decade. (NEXT WEEK: the show will be dedicated to reviewing the war in Ukraine and revisiting Dr. Rasmus’s January 2022 article, ‘Ten Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine’.
this week’s show is dedicating to debunking various claims Biden made in his State of the Union speech last week. Topics include claims of 12 million jobs created, unemployment rate at 50 yr. low, inflation, taxes and national debt. An explanation of Biden’s claims his 3 big investment bills passed last year will soon have a big impact on the economy, specifically the Infrastructure bill, Chip & Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. How the three represent a trillion dollar shift in spending from Covid relief social programs to subsidies to corporations to invest. Why austerity in social program spending is now on the agenda, to finance in part an even bigger rise in defense and Ukraine war spending than in 2022. Dr. Rasmus explains how chronic deficits for the past 20 years have been due to $15 trillion in tax cuts and $7T in war spending (not counting Ukraine), driving the national debt from $4T in 2000 to $31.5 trillion today. Rasmus explains why the main target in spending cuts is social security and medicare, despite Biden and Republican claims they won’t cut social security.
The Federal Reserve raised rates again last week. Financial markets interpreted the 0.25 bps raise, the lowest in the past year, as evidence the Fed will stop raising and start lowering rates again by summer 2023. But the Fed has said over and over it is targeting the jobs market for evidence that rate hikes are producing unemployment that will lower wages, consumption and demand and therefore prices. (Even though wages have already fallen in real terms throughout 2022). Then the Friday February 3 jobs numbers came out showing 517,000 jobs ‘created’ in January 2023. So what’s going on? Were there really 517k new jobs? Or, as I’ve been arguing the jobs numbers are corrupted and inaccurate. Today’s Alternative Visions show takes on that question (watch for my further detailed written article out soon and accessible from my blog, jackrasmus.com). If the numbers aren’t accurate, why is the Fed continuing to raise rates? Will the Jan. jobs numbers mean it will raise rates longer and higher?
Dr. Rasmus reviews the details of the just announced advance report on US GDP for 2022 and its 4th quarter. After a contraction throughout the first six months of 2022, the US economy ‘recovered’ at only a 2.9% rate in 4th quarter after a meager 3.2% in third quarter. For the entire year US GDP registered a mere 2.1% ‘average for year’ growth. That’s down from 5.9% from 2021 when the economy reopened from the Covid shutdowns. And both those grossly weak numbers occurred after a combined US fiscal-monetary stimulus of more than $8 trillion, provided by the Biden administration (Covid relief, spending, tax cuts) a more than $4 trillion and another $4 trillion provided by the Federal Reserve central bank. Rasmus breaks down the details of the composition of the 2022 weak 2.1% GDP rise, noting the growth due to excessive business inventory expansion (to decline in 2023), contracting real retail sales at the end of 2022, a continuing housing sector contraction, slowing US exports as the world economy slows, and coming US govt austerity social program spending in 2023.
In today’s show Dr. Rasmus describes and discusses the major trends of the past four decades of the era of Neoliberal capitalism—in a recap of his January 14 presentation to the 28th annual Rosa Luxemburg conference held last week in Berlin. Rasmus explains how Neoliberal era global capitalism, which originated in the late 1970s as a solution to the crisis of the 1970s, has entered a crisis period in the wake of the 2007-15 global financial crash and great recession. The key trends discussed include: US and global capitalism never fully recovered from the 2007-15 crash; the Covid crisis exacerbated the economic problems and created fundamental structural changes in the global economy; traditional capitalist fiscal-monetary policy tools have become increasingly ineffective in stabilizing the capitalist economy; financialization of the global economy has intensified contradictions and accelerated income and wealth inequality while slowing real economic growth as well; technological change has accelerated changing economic relations at work that has reduced wage incomes for workers, accelerating precariate, gig, and AI job displacement; both traditional and secondary forms of labor exploitation have intensified; financial fragility of governments, households and corporations has risen; US imperialism has entered a more aggressive and violent stage; and domestic political divisions and instability has intensified in many countries, including USA and Europe in response to all the above. In short, Neoliberalism is failing and a new capitalist restructuring of the global economy has begun in early phases. (Check out Dr. Rasmus’ blog, https://jackrasmus.com later today for a posting of a text version of this discussion)
In today’s show Dr. Rasmus describes and discusses the major trends of the past four decades of the era of Neoliberal capitalism—in a recap of his January 14 presentation to the 28th annual Rosa Luxemburg conference held last week in Berlin. Rasmus explains how Neoliberal era global capitalism, which originated in the late 1970s as a solution to the crisis of the 1970s, has entered a crisis period in the wake of the 2007-15 global financial crash and great recession. The key trends discussed include: US and global capitalism never fully recovered from the 2007-15 crash; the Covid crisis exacerbated the economic problems and created fundamental structural changes in the global economy; traditional capitalist fiscal-monetary policy tools have become increasingly ineffective in stabilizing the capitalist economy; financialization of the global economy has intensified contradictions and accelerated income and wealth inequality while slowing real economic growth as well; technological change has accelerated changing economic relations at work that has reduced wage incomes for workers, accelerating precariate, gig, and AI job displacement; both traditional and secondary forms of labor exploitation have intensified; financial fragility of governments, households and corporations has risen; US imperialism has entered a more aggressive and violent stage; and domestic political divisions and instability has intensified in many countries, including USA and Europe in response to all the above. In short, Neoliberalism is failing and a new capitalist restructuring of the global economy has begun in early phases. (Check out Dr. Rasmus’ blog, https://jackrasmus.com later today for a posting of a text version of this discussion)
Dr. Rasmus follows up last week’s Alternative Visions show on a review of economic & political events in 2022 with today’s show’s predictions for 2023. Included are what’s next for the USA with regard to inflation, recession, fiscal-monetary and trade policy shifts, and potential for financial instability. And on the political scene what’s likely to occur with the USA’s proxy war in Ukraine, tech trade war with China, the situation with Taiwan, and domestically the super-gridlock likely in Congress. Rasmus then predicts important economic and political developments likely to occur in Europe, the UK, China, Japan, Middle East (Saudi, Iran, Syria, Israel) and Latin America (especially Ecuador-Peru, Argentina and Brazil).
Today’s show provides a review of the main events and developments for the USA and global economies—as well a review of the major political events of the past year. Included are US, Europe and other economies’ central bank (interest rate hike) policy shifts and their effects; the global currency crises unleashed; USA fiscal policy shift from Covid relief to subsidizing corporate investment Acts (Infrastructure, Chip & Inflation Reduction trio acts); sanctions on Russia & Ukraine; China Covid policy shift; escalating US-Europe-Japan war spending; and the continuing slide into recession in the US & G7 economies. Political analysis focuses on the developments in the Ukraine war; US midterm elections; US attempts to provoke China over Taiwan; and the US January 6 political theater and refusal by Biden administration to indict Trump. (Next week’s show will address Predictions for 2023: Economic and Political. So tune in)
This past week’s Federal Reserve latest rate hike forewarns financial market investors in no uncertain terms the Fed is prepared to raise rates further, longer and higher in order to reduce inflation in 2023, even if it means more likely and deeper recession. Dr. Rasmus reviews the statements of Fed chair Powell and debunks the Fed’s forecast for inflation and (GDP) in 2023. Fed plans to raise base interest rates to 5.1% in 2023, reducing CPI prices to around 4% (vs. 7-8% so far) while slowing the real economy to only 0.5% and unemployment of 4.6%for 2023. Rasmus explains why 2023 will witness more than 5.1% rate hikes, a deeper recession than 0.5%, and more unemployment than 4.6%. Fed chair Powell’s latest press conference focus was twofold: 1. Telling investors get ready for rates to go higher and longer, 2) show Fed’s plan to attack wages & reduce spending on core services by generating more layoffs. Rasmus reviews follow on central bank rate hikes in Europe, Japan and explains how rising US dollar and geopolitical policies are responsible for Europe’s even greater inflation and deeper recession.
Today’s show discusses various political events and economic developments of the past week, in anticipation of next week’s big announcements on the Consumer Price Index report and the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike decisions. Today’s show discusses Senator Kirsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democrat party and become independent and what that means for the media’s hype of the Democrats ‘safe’ control of the Senate now with Warnock’s win in Georgia; Biden’s announcement of a sop thrown to labor to save multiemployer pension system (a history of the evolution of pensions in US is offered); Exxon’s announcement of a new $50B stock buyback bonanza for shareholders (+ history of stock buybacks in US since 2010); financial problems at the big EU bank, Credit Suisse and crypto company FTX in US; the politics behind the announcement last week b y the EU/G7/US to impose a maximum $60/barrel on Russian global oil sales. Show concludes with a breakdown of today’s Produce Price Index (PPI) report that shows a record surge in food prices and only moderate slowing of energy prices + a brief review of the Fed’s latest Consumer Credit report showing consumer debt has risen by $500 billion over the pre-Covid 2019 levels.
Today’s show begins with an analysis of the just announced passage by Congress and Dems preventing a railroad strike—the 19th time Congress has intervened to prevent a strike. The pro-corporate actual nature of the Biden administration is made clear by the action. What has happened since September to the present. The show then addresses the Biden-Macron press conference and talk of an emerging UKS-EU trade war over US subsidies to US corporations in the Chip and Inflation Reduction Acts this year. Did Biden cave in to Macron? What does the US tech trade war with China have to do with it all? Finally, Fed chair Powell’s press conference this past week and the jobs numbers out today.
Republicans spinning their taking control of the US House. Democrats spinning their wasn’t a red wave. So what’s the significance of the recent midterm Congressional elections? My answer: as the French say, plus ce change, rien ce change’ (Everything changes but nothing changes). In today’s show Dr. Rasmus provides his analysis of the midterm elections, making the central point that there’s been little change in the midterms from 2020 alignments because both parties offered little different to the voters in 2022 than they did in 2020. Rasmus reviews the proposals and strategies of both parties in some detail, revealing neither offered voters much of any substance. The more important outcome was the DeSantis strong win in Florida, which opens a political pissing match in the Republican party between Trump and DeSantis. Today’s show also comments on the Federal Reserve governor, Esther George, statement today that the Fed might not be able to bring down inflation without recession, admitting more rate hikes coming and 100% certain recession (already here) after the holidays. The show ends with a comment on the implosion of the crypto currency firm, FTX; the possible financial contagion effects; and its Ukraine money laundering connections. (see Dr. Rasmus blog, jackrasmus.com, this weekend for a written article on the recent midterm election).
Dr. Rasmus dissects today’s October Jobs Report release and discusses the consequences, and future direction, of this past week’s latest Federal Reserve rate hike of 75 pts, the 4th in a row. Will there be another 75 in December? Why do investors consistently ‘bet’ that the Fed will ‘pivot’ and slow its rate hikes? Why has the Fed said it will now focus on its ‘terminal’ (highest) eventual rate? Why are banks and business economists predicting the Fed has to stop raising rates around 5% for its base rate? Dr. Rasmus reiterates his past prediction the Fed can’t raise rates above 5% without precipitating financial instability. Inflation will continue high through the winter after, abating a little at best, as the US economy slides into a deeper recession. The various supply and demand factors driving inflation are noted, as well as new factors entering the inflation equation like the collapse of US productivity and rising business unit labor costs. A prediction is made that the Democrats will lose both houses of Congress (The House by 5-10 seats and Senate by 1-2 Seats). US budget deficits will deteriorate further again in 2023 and the Republican controlled Congress will focus on Austerity policies, impacting mostly social programs.
Dr. Rasmus provides an analysis of US economic trends as US GDP preliminary report shows US economy barely growing in third quarter 2022. What’s happening in Housing, Techs, Consumer spending, Business investment, net exports. Also, the destabilizing effects of current Fed rate hikes (another 75 basis pts coming next week) via the appreciation of the US dollar and corresponding collapse of foreign currencies, including the Euro, pound, yen and China Yuan. The longer term risk, beginning to emerge of dollar rise on global financial system. In the second half hour of the show Dr. Rasmus provides his reflections on the war in Ukraine: military, economic and political. Recent events and comments on US/NATO side and Russia that reveal further drift toward legitimizing and using tactical nuclear weapons. US-Russian meeting for the first time in 6 months by Austin-Shoigu and US moving advanced nukes into Europe and US 101st Airborne division on Romania-Ukraine border near Odessa. Rasmus critiques Russia’s initial ‘Special Military Operation’ strategy and why it failed; Ukraine’s summer mobilization and offensive’s results. Putin’s military miscalculations in March and August 2022, why now Russia is mobilizing for war, and why this winter its offensive will dramatically change the conflict. Show concludes with analysis why sanctions on Russia have not succeeded and how US/NATO are drifting toward a direct confrontation with Russia as it mobilizes. (Next week’s show: US Midterm Elections analysis & predictions)
Today’s show takes a different emphasis than in the past by focusing on key personalities and their roles in the growing economic and political crises in the US and world. Dr. Rasmus discusses former UK prime minister, Liz Truss, who was just ousted by the UK’s bond vigilantes and finance capitalists. What did Liz do to get thrown under the bus? Rasmus shows her proposals, for which she was deposed, were not much different than Ronald Reagan’s in 1981-83. Rasmus explains why the UK’s current crisis is actually ‘Made in the USA’. Steve Bannon’s ‘slap on the hand’ court decision and its implications are next discussed. Thereafter Elon Musk’s flirting with a more neutral position in the Ukraine war and the shitstorm against him it’s released. Nouriel Roubini’s declaration we are already in World War 3, followed by Mohammed El-Erian’s raising of the bogeyman that maybe the Fed shouldn’t be so ‘independent’. Rasmus discusses the Fed fake issue of central bank independence, covered in detail in his 2017 book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression’. (Check out Dr. Rasmus blog, jackrasmus.com, this Sunday for his blogpost and proposals to democratize the Fed). The show comments further on the meeting between US and Russian defense ministers, Austin and Shoigu, Zelensky’s latest rants, Mario Draghi’s declaration of Europe now in recession, and concludes with soon to be Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy’s, public statements on likely Republican economic and war policies after the Nov. midterm elections. (Next week’s show will address the midterm election issues).
Dr. Rasmus discusses the CPI report released this past week and identifies the four sections responsible for the chronic inflation: food, energy, shelter and transport. Why the four will continue to keep inflation high over the winter. Why most of CPI is still supply side driven and not demand. Why Fed escalating rate hikes can address only Demand side causes of the inflation and therefore prices will remain in the 4-5% range despite the deeper recession coming 2023. Rasmus discusses why inflation in Europe is worse than the USA and how Fed rate hikes exacerbate inflation there and elsewhere in the rest of the world. The show concludes with discussion of some of the consequences of the Fed rate hikes (in USA and globally), including why rate hikes (Fed and UK) are contributing to growing financial instability in Britain—which is a case example of what may occur later elsewhere in Europe. Comparisons of the 2008 Lehman Brothers crash with the current emerging financial crisis in Britain.
Dr. Rasmus views consequences of Fed rate hikes continuing on US financial markets, global currencies crisis, and capitalist financial instability. How Fed rate hikes accelerate the dollar and in turn export US inflation to emerging and other advanced offshore economies. Why Fed’s plan is to keep raising rates and there is no ‘pivot’ that US stock markets want to see. Unlike in 2013, the Fed rate hikes will continue despite the negative effects on offshore capitalist economies. Rasmus then discusses the implications of the Saudi-OPEC crude oil production cuts, why the EU’s ‘price cap’ on oil will fail, and what’s possibly behind the recent sabotage of the two Nordstream pipelines. Financial fragility in the case of Euro bank, Credit Suisse, is discussed as is the weak spots in the global real and financial economy. Show concludes with some comments on latest military developments in Ukraine war plus the growing US/Ukraine media campaign (Biden, Zelensky, etc.) messaging the US should use its first strike nuclear doctrine on Russia before it does.
Dr. Rasmus reviews the intensifying UK economic crisis that escalated this past week. Bond holders and investors provoked a crisis in Britain’s pension funds in response to the new Truss government’s proposals to cut taxes and enact price caps on the accelerating cost of energy for UK households and small businesses. Capitalist investors don’t want fiscal spending they fear will stimulate the economy and therefore demand and inflation, the latter now double digit and predicted to rise to 17%. They want higher interest rates from the UK bank of England to protect the value of their investments—from rising inflation as well as collapsing British currency, the pound, that has fallen 40%.Rasmus explains this represents growing contradictions between capitalist fiscal-monetary policies and splits within the UK capitalist class. The show further explains and critiques the EU’s latest proposals for sanctions on Russia by creating a G7/EU global oil price cartel, which is doomed to fail if it ever gets implemented. Latest events summarized also in Russia-Ukraine/NATO war.
Today’s show focuses on two ‘wars’, one military and one economic. Dr. Rasmus discusses the Fed’s latest 75 bps interest rate hike and its consequences, both for inflation, recession, and global currency markets’ instability. Fed chair, Powell’s, 3 justifications for raising rates are discussed. Rasmus explains Fed rate hikes address Demand side inflation, but not global supply chains or supply problems due to war and sanctions or general corporate price gouging by monopolistic US corps. Why latest US CPI numbers show a troubling deepening and worsening inflation picture. How Fed rate hikes cause the US dollar appreciation which, in turn, devalues other currencies, including Euro, Pound, Yen and Yuan. How the $ rise in effect exports US inflation and recession to other countries. Second half of show discusses the juncture the Ukraine war has now reached, why Russia’s SMO strategy had failed, and what the announcement by Putin to hold referenda in the four provinces and to mobilize 300,000 more Russian reserves forces for the war means for further escalation of the conflict. The US/NATO war strategy as a ‘Brezinski 2.0’ strategy.
Today’s show explains how the US dollar serves as the lynchpin of the US global economic empire. How it controls key commodities trade. How the SWIFT Int’l Payments system is integrated with the $, and roles of IMF, World Bank and US Fed use the $ to control economies. Dr. Rasmus explains how the US exports inflation and unemployment to other countries using the Fed, interest rates, and the $. And how it uses the dollar to punish countries that challenge the US global economic empire. The show then takes up again the topic of the Railway Workers negotiations raised last week and explains how domestically US capital controls key transport unions to prevent strikes using the National Labor Relations and Railway Labor Acts legislation. What’s the likelihood of a strike in rail next week? The show concludes with Dr. Rasmus’ view of events in Ukraine, especially military maneuverings up to the past few days and what’s different with the US-Ukraine current offensive.
Dr. Rasmus presents his annual labor day overview of the condition of American unions and working class. A description of the history of the rise and fall of union membership in the US from the 1920s to the present is given, followed by why overall union membership still remains stagnant despite 60-70% of workers saying in polls and surveys they want a union. Corporate-Govt causes of the decline vs. union top leadership failures are addressed. On the positive side, Dr. Rasmus reviews the past year’s positive union events including formation of unions at Amazon, Starbucks and other retail and the direct election of new top union leaders in the autoworkers and Teamsters unions. The state of current negotiations involving the ILWU (west coast dockworkers) and the Railway unions is covered, and the key strategic nature of these unions and negotiations are noted. On the negative side, the failure of the Biden administration to get the promised PRO Act passed and the White House’s token responses. An overview of the condition of the US working class over the past year concludes the show, including what’s really happening with jobs, the decline in real wages, other compensation losses for the working class in 2021-22 and why Biden’s recent legislation will have no benefit to workers in the short term.
Dr. Rasmus analyses the positives and negatives of Biden’s announcement canceling some student debt. The five main elements of the proposal are described. But more than 25 million students and former students will now have to resume payments and will pay even more starting 2023. Why the $10k debt forgiveness proposal will be offset in more debt in just a couple of years again. And why the second $10k won’t cover all eligible Pell grant recipients. Rasmus explains how the new rule of paying 5% of discretionary income will result in more unpaid debt interest, rising debt principal and total debt levels. The basic problems of the student loan system is not addressed by Biden: government interest rate charges higher than market rates; no inflation adjustment; no controls on college administration costs and fees, and a narrow definition of who qualifies for residual debt forgiveness after 10 years. Rasmus proposes his own solutions to the crisis. (for further analysis see Dr. Rasmus just published article, ‘Biden’s Bifurcated Student Debt Cancellation Plan’ at his blog, http://jackrasmus.com. The show concludes with a discussion of Fed chair Powell’s speech today at Jackson Hole, WY, and why it means further rate hikes for some time, more protracted recession, and stagflation in 2023. (Listen to next week’s Labor Day show on the state of the US working class and unions today)
Dr. Rasmus explains the tax and spending details contained in the just passed Inflation Reduction Act, the culmination of two and half years of fiscal spending & tax acts under Trump and Biden during Covid and after.
The composition of the Cares Act (March 2020), efforts to pass a follow on bill in summer 2020, the emergency Cash Act passed in December 2020, Biden’s March 2021 ‘Covid Relief Act, and the collapse of the Build Back Better Act in November 2021 are all explained and compared. Rasmus describes how Biden’s initial ‘Covid Relief’ and ‘Build Back Better’ proposals in 2021 were stripped out of their corporate measures, which subsequently were passed as the Infrastructure Act (November 2021), the ‘Semiconductor & Manufacturing Act’ (July 2022) and now the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’. The three pro-corporate Acts of 2022 replaced the Sanders-House Build Back Better bill. Rasmus describes in detail the just passed Inflation Reduction Act, argues its tax measures won’t produce the $740B revenue, why it won’t reduce inflation, and why most of the $370B spending on climate will go to corporations and businesses as well. Positive, albeit token, social spending measures mostly benefit Medicare households or keep the Obamacare subsidies going a few more years.
Dr. Rasmus discusses today’s Jobs report in detail, dedicating the entire show to an analysis of the report. Is the 528,000 reported ‘new’ jobs and only 3.5% unemployment rate accurate? Rasmus explains the various statistical operations on the actual raw jobs data that results by the Labor Dept. surveys in order to arrive at these numbers. How seasonality, new business formation, and other statistical manipulation on the ‘raw actual jobs data’ results in artificially robust monthly numbers and why there are important contradictions between the two jobs surveys employed by the government in the report. Also discussed is why the reported 4.5% gain in workers’ earnings are really a -4.6% decline in inflation adjusted earnings; why other government report stats like labor force participation rate and employment to population survey show no strong job growth trend; and why the reported 3.5% unemployment rate is really 7.2% even according to the report’s other tables. Also discussed is the significance of an increase of 800,000 in part time employment in just the past month and data in Table A-8 of the report showing a decline in total employment since May 2022—from 156,180,000 to 156,000,000—contradicting the reported 528,000 new jobs last month and the 372,000 in June before.
Dr. Rasmus discusses the US economy’s current critical juncture: Is recession already here after this past week’s 2nd Quarter US GDP report showing two consecutive quarters now of US GDP contraction? Why is there a debate going on that it’s not yet a recession (Biden, Yellen, Powell) despite two quarters of contraction? The two definitions of recession are described. Why those who say it’s not yet a recession are wrong. It is. Dr. Rasmus next discusses the Fed’s decision last Wednesday to raise interest rates another 75 pts. Why the US stock markets & investors welcomed it and surged. What did Fed chairman, Powell, say in announcing the rate hikes that signaled the Fed has lost control of the economy? How many more rate hikes will follow? Why Powell says ‘no recession’ yet and believes a ‘soft landing’ is possible? Why it is not. What’s response of other global central banks in Europe & Japan and why rate hikes to date won’t happen effect on reducing inflation much.
Dr. Rasmus reviews the latest data and economic indicators this past week which show a ‘technical’ recession is likely already here. ‘Technical’ refers to two consecutive quarter declines in US GDP. First quarter 2022 already declined at -1.6%. 2nd Quarter predictions by Fed show another -1.5% fall. Rasmus reviews other indicators: recent retail sales adjusted for inflation, consumer sentiment, business activity contraction in the important benchmark region of the mid-Atlantic states, and today the latest release of Purchasing Managers’ Indices for manufacturing and services, both of which now contracting, with forecasts in some regions worse to come. Rasmus notes the recent McKinsey Consultants report on ‘The Great Attrition’, contrasted to his own ‘Great Strike’ prediction of last fall. Important union negotiations and possible strikes in railroads, west coast ports, and Teamsters next year are discussed, in relation to the anti-union 1947 Taft-Hartley Act designed to enable US government to intervene and stop strikes. Global slowdown in China and Europe and Japan now sliding into recession as well. Rasmus predicts Fed ‘demand destruction’ rapid rate hikes will ensure even non-technical definition of recession before year end 2022. But destroying demand forces contributing to inflation won’t abate supply forces also contributing. Thus recession will take down half of current inflation rate but inflation will continue into the recession period.
Here’s the announcement for today’s Alternative Visions show:
Title: US Dollar & Empire in Rising Global Inflation & Recession
Copy: Dr. Rasmus takes up the theme of US global economic empire is in decline and examines that in relation to the role of the US dollar and other US dominated economic institutions like the IMF, SWIFT international payments system, and other institutions of empire. Both short run and long run trends for the dollar and empire are discussed, and likely moves toward more independence from the US empire by economies like the BRICS (and others now joining it) and what that means for the $ and the empire. The show then reviews recent US CPI and PPI inflation numbers of the past week and Fed rate hikes accelerating. US GDP and its components are considered, as well as GDP, inflation, Currency instability, and interest rate developments underway in China, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets. Show concludes with brief discussion of potential financial liquidity crises erupting as inflation and recessions deepen globally, and what markets this might appear
In the first half hour today’s show dissects the latest US jobs report for June. Why even govt stats reveal unemployment rates are nearly twice the official, low ball 3.8%. Dr. Rasmus other govt stats as a clearer picture of the job market in the US, explains why the past year jobs numbers are not ‘new jobs created’ but restoration of jobs lost during Covid, and why jobs are a ‘lagging indicator ‘ of the economy and will follow the economic slowdown in 6-9 months hence, as hiring freezes and early layoffs in some sectors are already appearing. The show’s second half debunks President Biden’s various public announcements about how he’s acting to reduce inflation: Biden’s PR includes lowering tariffs on China exports to the US; suspending the US federal gas tax; selling oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve; jawboning gas stations to lower price at the pump more; pleading with Saudi Arabia to produce more crude oil; getting the G7 economies to fix a price of $50/barrel at which they’ll buy Russian oil as a measure to drive down to that level the global price of crude in general, from its current $100 range. Rasmus reviews what Biden could do to bring down US gas prices but won’t. Behind the PR spin, Rasmus explains, is the real Biden solution to dampen inflation: have the Federal Reserve precipitate a recession and thereby collapse Demand (via layoffs and wage incomes) for what is a global Supply and domestic oil corps manipulation of price actual problem.
Today’s show reviews G7 meeting and its decisions on new sanctions and de facto declaration of future war on Russia. US/NATO military buildup, provocations, and war costs for US. Larry Summers’ admits recession in US nearer than 2023, confirming Dr. Rasmus’s predictions of 2022 recession for past seven months. Review of sectors of weakening US real economy, as stock and bond markets plunge 1st half 2022. Show concludes with analysis of Biden’s failing inflation control initiatives to date and why stagflation USA has arrived.
Dr. Rasmus reviews the content and consequences of US/NATO imposed sanctions on Russia since the Ukraine war was launched in February. A brief history of US use of sanctions is followed by description of sanctions since February. The categories of sanctions: goods, financial, individuals. Why oil and gas sanctions have failed. The cost of sanctions to US/ Europe, and Russia. Countries involved. Relation between sanctions and accelerating inflation globally. Impacts on US economy, Europe’s, and emerging market economies worldwide. Biden’s tepid solutions to inflation and why they’re failing. What alternatives aren’t being discussed. Consequences of sanctions for restructuring of global capitalist economy and risks for US global economic empire.
Dr. Rasmus picks up where last week’s show, continuing the discussion of the Anatomy of Inflation in the US and why inflation will continue chronically for months more. Why falling productivity, rising unit labor costs, inflationary expectations, further intensification of sanctions and war in Ukraine will all add to inflationary pressures. Biden’s various failed initiatives to dampen inflation, and rejected alternatives that could address inflation, are discussed. The show next considers today’s just released jobs report, and looks behind the numbers to show the jobs trend is slowing and hiring freezes appearing that will change the direction of this lagging indicator in coming months. Meanwhile wage gains are falling further behind prices and for most workers are much less than the official reported ‘average’ of 5.2% which is skewed by 18% gains for professionals and managers at the top end of the wage structure and for minimum wage hikes needed to attract workers to service jobs again at the low end. The show concludes with a preliminary discussion of the nature of War in general, and economic war in particular, today. (Next week’s show: ‘Russian Sanctions and their consequences’ for EU, US, and global economy’)
Dr. Rasmus dissects the various causes of inflation in the US over the past year, explaining it is mostly Supply side driven and not consumer Demand. Following last spring 2021 reopening of the US economy, some price increases followed due to more wage in come as workers went back to work. That was a moderately rise, however. The big escalation of inflation began last September due to global and US domestic Supply chain problems which was followed by price gouging by monopolistic US corporations many of which had no supply issues (ex: bakery-cereal and meat packing companies, oil companies, etc.). In 2021 Supply was responsible for at least 3/4s of the inflation. Overlaid on these forces in 2022 were three additional causes: first, commodity inflation due to Ukraine war and Biden sanctions depressing supply of oil, gas, industrial metals, certain agricultural goods; second, rising unit labor costs by US businesses due mostly to collapsing US productivity (worst since 1947) passed through to prices; third, emerging inflationary expectations (the latter a Demand factor). To address this anatomy of inflation, the Fed is raising interest rates at a record pace, addressing Demand but unable to address Supply causes. Recession will follow (as in 19981-82). Rasmus further explains how the US exports both its inflation and recession to emerging market economies via a currency crisis now underway. The show ends with a brief warning of potential financial asset price deflation emerging, with cryptocurrencies’ collapsing and raising potential for contagion across other asset classes.
The Federal Reserve’s decision this past to raise interest rates immediately by half percent—to be followed by further half percent hikes in June & July and still more increases the rest of the year—means Capitalist economic policy is now to precipitate a recession in order to deal with rising inflation. The question now is not whether, but when, recession comes in the US. Will it be before the end of this year, or early next. And how deep will it go? Dr. Rasmus describes the current Anatomy of Recession in the US: global and domestic supply chain problems that emerged last summer 2021 + monopolistic US corporations price gouging + commodities inflation due to US war sanctions on Russia this year + business productivity collapse leading to pass through of their rising labor costs + emerging inflationary expectations. All together ensure continued inflation in 2022. Rasmus discusses whether the Fed can address these mostly Supply side causes successfully. The US experience of 1981-82 recession is compared to 2022. Can Fed destruction of household-consumer Demand again today achieve inflation control? How deep a recession precipitated by Fed interest rates be required? What’s happening in the stock markets with its wide 1000 point daily swings? Why a ‘soft landing’ of the US economy won’t occur, given the already 1st quarter contraction of the US GDP and concurrent slowdowns in China, Europe and emerging market economies as Fed rate hikes drive up the dollar and ‘export’ recessions abroad.
Dr. Rasmus discusses the recent announcement of US GDP for first quarter 2022 which shows a contraction of the US real economy already underway. The Federal Reserve’s plan to accelerate interest rate hikes starting this month and every Fed meeting this year thereafter, ensures the recession drift will continue and likely accelerate as well. The four components of US GDP—consumer spending, business investment, government spending and net exports (imports-exports) are reviewed as forces behind the GDP contraction. Rasmus discusses the supply side and corporate price gouging behind the current inflation, and how that is depressing consumer spending 70% of US economy + how slowing of economies in rest of world is depressing exports + how US shift to war spending at expense of social programs is further exacerbating the US economic contraction. As Covid impact has ebbed, the war in Ukraine further exacerbates supply drive inflation and in turn consumer demand. How big oil corps and other monopoly corporations in USA are gaming the inflation to generate super profits; what and why Biden administration is doing (and not doing). Rasmus further concludes the war in Ukraine will not be short but protracted, as US adopts a ‘Brezinski 2.0’ doctrine to debilitate Russia economically and militarily in Ukraine; why NATO will expand outside Europe; why the Ukraine war is an event similar to ‘Spain 1937’.
Dr. Rasmus provides an update of US sanctions on Russian gas, commodities, finance and products and assesses their impact. What are some of Russia responses? Will the continuation of sanctions lead to an undermining of US global economic hegemony? Is that imminent or not? Show concludes with Dr. Rasmus observations of the war on the ground and some alternative analyses to US media propaganda. (Check out his latest article on his blog, http://jackrasmus.com ‘US Imperialism’s Proxy War against Russia in Ukraine’ (LA Progressive, March 27, 2022)
Dr. Rasmus discusses the past week historic Fed rate hike announcement and what it portends for both US and global economy, real growth and financial instability. What’s driving the rate hikes, both supply and demand, short and long term. What’s likely impact on the US real economy (housing, autos, small business, etc.). Implications for global currencies’ instability and global economies. Rasmus next discusses she latest of US sanctions on Russia. Are they working? Where and where not? What are Russia’s countermeasures? Are they working? What does it all mean for the major restructuring of the global economy and US imperial hegemony in the months and years immediately ahead.
Dr. Rasmus reviews the many recent financial sanctions and actions taken against Russia and discusses the impacts of each on Russia, as well as on the US and the global economy. The possible ‘blowbacks’ of sanctions to the global financial system are discussed. Various narratives explaining the origins and course of the war are also reviewed and Dr. Rasmus offers an alternative to the mainstream views, arguing all three parties to the conflict are responsible in part and each presents their own preferred view, none of which is totally accurate. Extrapolating from the current experience of financial sanctions on Russia, the show concludes with commentary on how 21st century US imperialism is heavily dependent on financial actions to enforce empire.
What might be the economic impact of the war in Ukraine—On Russia, Europe, and the US as well? Dr. Rasmus discusses the immediate short term economic effects of the past two days of the War. Further consideration and discussion follows on the more intermediate and long term likely impacts in inflation, output, stagflation, financial asset markets, currency exchange rates, and global goods and money flows (exports-imports). An analysis and prediction of the possible minimal effects of US and EU sanctions on Russia, including the suspension of the Russian-German Nordstream 2 natural gas pipeline. Why Biden’s sanctions are full of holes. Why the US has exempted the SWIFT international payments system from the sanctions and why the economic fallout of the war and sanctions will hit Europe harder. What are the implications for global real economic recovery from Covid now underway: will the War thwart and dampen that recovery? The show concludes with comments on some of the fundamental changes in the global economy that the Ukraine war may generate.
As events intensify in the Ukraine and possible conflict looms between the US and Russia—using the proxy of Ukraine—the question rises which is exercising imperialist policies: Russia in Ukraine or US via NATO in Ukraine? Or both? What’s an empire and what’s an imperialist war? Dr. Rasmus defines Imperialism and its key historical examples in the last few centuries. Is capitalist Imperialism different from other pre-capitalist examples? How have different countries managed their empires, especially contrasting British in past compared to USA’s today? Why wars and colonies are only part of the practice of Empire and imperialism. Wars are about obtaining and maintaining empire. But the management of empire in between is different. How imperial countries—especially the USA today—maintain its empire and how is that different from prior empires (British, French, etc.). Rasmus explains how the emerging conflict in Ukraine species of Imperialism fits in the broader historical Geneology of Imperialism.
Dr. Rasmus discusses the widespread narrative in the business media that the Fed will start raising interest rates rapidly next month in March. The argument of mainstream economics is that rate hikes will cool down accelerating inflation (7.5% at latest official report—but really 10% or more). Rasmus explains Fed rate hikes can only impact Demand but current inflation is a combination of Supply problems and monopoly like corporations price gouging. The latest CPI inflation report is discussed, as well as why Fed rate hikes (now predicted at 7 just in 2022) will likely precipitate a major slowdown of the real US economy in 2023 and possibly provoke a financial instability event thereafter as well. The effect of aggressive Fed rate action will also negatively impact global currency markets, Rasmus argues, as the US dollar rises sharply in value in wake of rate hikes. Emerging market economies therefore will experience the negative impacts as well. So why is there consensus that the Fed is the only solution to inflation at this point? And is there another solution? And why is it being ignored?
Dr. Rasmus reviews the historical background to the possible military confrontation in the Ukraine, going back to Gorbachev and the breakup of the USSR in the early 1990s; aggressive moves by the US to move NATO into East Europe after promising not to do so; then US efforts to push pro-Russian politicians out of Ukraine in 2006 and the US backed Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, Russia; followed by the US financed coup of 2014 and Russian responses in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and US unilateral withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Weapons (INF) treaty with Russia in 2019 and moving of NATO missile systems into Poland and Romania. Rasmus chronologically describes events since Putin’s public article last summer indicating NATO in Ukraine was a ‘red line’, up to the current maneuvering going on between Biden and Putin since December 2021 and western European leaders’ shuttle diplomacy now underway. Why a Russian invasion is not ‘imminent’, as Biden claims, but is nonetheless still possible. A preview of Dr. Rasmus’ latest article, ’10 Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine’ is presented (see his blog, http://jackrasmus.com for the print version)
The Biden administration this week hypes the 2021 US GDP release of 5.7% growth for 2021 as ‘fastest growth in 38 years’. Yet poll after poll show US households very downbeat and negative about the course and future of the US economy. Who’s right? The politicians or consumers? This show will unpack the just release preliminary figures for US GDP for 2021 and for latest 4th quarter. Why the hyped 5.7% is not all that relevant for the average consumer and household—whether measured in inflation, jobs, wage incomes or even future GDP growth in 2022-23. What’s the real rate of inflation and thus actually lower GDP? Why GDP has been over-inflated since 2013. Why sectors of GDP growth in 2021 are set to slow in 2022. The second major announcement of last week was Fed chair Powell’s declaration that interest rates will rise starting March 2022. Why rate hikes won’t halt inflation, however, and may actually slow the real economy and push financial markets toward more instability.
Dr. Rasmus reviews and discusses this past week’s decision by the US Senate to reject approving the Voting Rights Acts, again engineered by the Democrat party’s right wing Senators Manchin & Sinema. What’s the economic motivation behind rejecting the political issue? Rasmus reviews how the vote to reject is part of a 25 year record of chipping away at electoral democracy in the USA, and what are the consequences now for 2022 midterms and 2024 national elections. Possible scenarios for a more clever legal coup in 2024 are reviewed. Rasmus also addresses the foreign policy issue of Russia and Ukraine. Will Russia invade? In which cases and how? Did Biden already secretly agree to an incursion and then put his own foot in his mouth publicly about it. How does Ukraine 2022 compare to the prior invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia at the instigation of the USA
Dr. Rasmus reviews the various dimensions of the two year Covid war on the US Health Care system itself, as well as some of the permanent legacies it’s leaving on the US economy in general. The man failures of US health policy in relation to the Covid war. Covid’s impact on US and globally involving deaths, hospitalizations and infections. Effects on US labor, product & financial markets, and inflation longer term. Show concludes with commentary on Biden’s collapsing public approval ratings (33%) in light of the increasingly apparent failure to get voting rights passed in the Senate. Why the US political system IS WORKING as it was intended: The role of the Senate and Supreme Court as checks on democracy in the original US Constitution of 1787.
Dr. Rasmus provides his review of the major developments and events of 2021 involving both the US/Global economy and US/Global politics. Predictions for 2022 are offered for both as well.
Dr. Rasmus dissects the Federal Reserve Bank’s decision this past week announcing 3 interest rate hikes next year in 2022 and a faster retreat from its Covid era $120 billion per month injection of free money to bankers and investors. In a ‘Monetary Policy 101’ presentation, Rasmus explains how the Fed provides that free money (called ‘liquidity’ in economist parlance) and consequences of it for the real economy and financial market bubbles. Fed traditional bond buying, QE buying, & what’s called ‘Reverse Repos’ are described as channels of liquidity injections by the central bank. Can monetary policy address supply side inflation? Powell’s Fed is compared to Volcker’s in 1980-81. Does the Fed really control interest rates? Why financial markets surged after Powell’s announcement. Rasmus briefly comments on the now dead fiscal policy of the Biden administration. And predicts a slowing US economy in 2022. A concluding comment is offered on why US government economic statistics are distorted by seasonality adjustment that’s broken in the era of Covid—and why current positive growth numbers for manufacturing and GDP are really negative.
Today’s show focuses on the latest inflation (CPI) report released, showing inflation still rising by 6.8% (year on year). What are the causes? The show reviews how much may be due to supply issues (global supply chains & domestic supply issues), US consumer Demand, and inflationary expectations and just business price gouging. Looking at the main items of last month’s inflation—food, gasoline, shelter, autos, rents, clothing, etc.—Dr. Rasmus concludes inflation is driven in part by global and domestic supply causes, very little due to consumer demand, and very much due to rising inflationary expectations and widespread business price gouging. The latter is especially evident in rising cost of gasoline and rents and certain domestic food production (meat, milk, cereals, etc.). Global supply chains are responsible for autos, clothing, electronic goods, etc. But the main culprits are food, gas, rents which have little to do with supply or demand. Rasmus explains why the 6.8% is probably underestimated and inflation more than 10% and why it won’t be temporary. The show concludes with an analysis of what’s going on in the Ukraine, with US confrontation with Russia.
Dr. Rasmus explains exactly what Artificial Intelligence is, how it so far has penetrated business and industries, and what are the various forecasts of its potential impact on jobs the rest of this decade and beyond. The ideology, misrepresentations, and falsifications surrounding the concept: will it produce as many jobs as it destroys? Like previous industrial technology revolutions. Or is it different this time? What occupations will be especially hit hard by AI? How will the AI and nextgen technology revolution now underway affect the future of work and employment in the USA? Dr. Rasmus also briefly reviews last month’ job figures reported this morning by the Labor Dept. Is it really a ‘tight labor market’ being messaged by the mainstream media? Also noted is the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell’s, statement this past week that the Fed will start tapering and raising rates earlier than reported previously. What does that mean for the economic recovery?
Dr. Rasmus dissects the Infrastructure and Reconciliation bills’ latest content. What’s in and what’s out. Are they really ‘paid for’? Or are they funded by ‘smoke and mirrors’? What’s the actual Deficits impact? Why Biden’s Infrastructure Act signed last Monday is not a stimulus and won’t have much effect on the US economic recovery; why the Reconciliation (Build Back Better bill) just voted on in the US House likely won’t pass and if it does will be gutted to around $500B. The show next discusses the emerging Covid 5th Wave and its economic impact and why inflation in the US economy has become structural and not transitory. The show concludes with updates on the US-Mexico-Canada meeting, China’s property financial crisis, and recent developments in the US labor movement with the Deere strike settlement, Teamsters voting, and organizing campaigns at Amazon and Starbucks.
Dr. Rasmus addresses the big topic of the week: accelerating inflation now rising 6.2% according to the latest CPI report and fastest in 30 yrs. Rasmus explains why the 6.2% is actually a low estimate. The multiple causes driving it today are explained: global supply chains breakdown, US domestic supply problems, price gouging by US companies with excessive market power, consumer demand, and the role of global financial commodities speculators. Why the latter is driving global crude oil prices to 2008 levels once again and spilling over to US economy as major factor in US domestic inflation. Rasmus explains why the mostly supply side and commodities speculator driven forces will continue for some time well into 2022. How inflation will slow the US economic recovery as it surges. And why a new causal element driving inflation is now appearing: inflationary expectations. Inflation + slowing economy + no government further stimulus = political wipe-out of Democrats in 2022 midterm elections.
Dr. Rasmus explains how the Federal Reserve has provided $5T in free money to banks and private investors during the Covid recession, when they didn’t need it. That’s $120B every month. The Fed this past week reduced that to…$105B a month. How the monetary system works to subsidize financial markets, bankers, and investors. Why mainstream media avoids explaining this. Meanwhile, progressive democrats reaching their ‘endgame’ in passing the Infrastructure and Reconciliation bills in the US House. How Pelosi is maneuvering them to a final passage of the Infrastructure bill only is explained. Last month’s Employment and Jobs report out today is also dissected to show it reflects a weakening economic rebound—and not the hype presented by the media
Dr. Rasmus dissects & debunks the new billionaires taxes coming out of Democrat Congressional Finance committees. How billionaires like Elon Musk and others will easily avoid paying the tax the way it is being formulated. Why the individual billionaires tax will likely be tied up in courts for years. Rasmus gives a short history of the passage of the Income tax in 1913 and explains why a constitutional amendment will probably be necessary to approve a billionaires tax which is based on wealth accumulation, not income. How billionaires would easily avoid the tax even if approved by the US Supreme Court. The companion proposal in Congress to tax corporations that make $1 billion in profits with an Alternative 15% corporate tax is also debunked. Why the Democrats are raising both new proposals, as they slash the Build Back Better bill and drop real tax hikes previously proposed in order to placate Senators Manchin & Sinema. Rasmus predicts the progressive caucus in the House will soon capitulate to the much reduced $1.5T Build Back Better bill that remains. Concluding the show, US 3rd Quarter GDP data just released in analysed, which shows a significant slowing of the US economy growth for various reasons. (Note: Read Dr. Rasmus’ latest blogpost, “The ‘Smoke & Mirrors’ Billionaires Tax” at his blog, http://jackrasmus.com. )
The show leads with a critique of Biden’s town hall meeting last night on CNN and concludes with a discussion of what’s happening in China with its property markets bubble and coming defaults. The Biden town hall reveals the failing strategy of the Biden administration with regard to passing much needed fiscal social programs, climate change investments, jobs, and now accelerating inflation. Biden reveals what’s really behind the negotiations with Manchin and Sinema. Dr. Rasmus next discusses the causes behind the current supply driven inflation and predicts prices will continue rising well into 2022. And the US economy will continue slowing in the closing months of 2021. Stagflation (both inflation and weak jobs recovery) is the condition of the moment. Dr. Rasmus warns events in China’s property markets, with defaults at Evergrande and other developers, now inevitable, bear close watch. Is what’s happening in China housing the beginning of the next ‘subprime mortgage’-like global financial crisis?
Dr. Rasmus discusses his article, published last Monday, ‘The Great Strike of 2021’. Why are 5 million US workers not returning to work? Rasmus explains why and how they’re coping ‘withholding their labor’ as the economy reopens. It’s a strike wave of the lowest paid and most abused US workers. Signs their strike example may be spilling over to union workers now striking as well. Rasmus compares the 2021 strike wave with the last strike waves of 1970-71 and 1945-46. (Check out his blog, http://jackrasmus.com for recent articles on the subject). In the second half of the show the current escalation of inflation is discussed. Why Biden’s recent measures to put LA ports on 24/7 work schedule will not have much affect. Why the capitalist global supply chain is in chaos and why supply-driven inflation will not be temporary but continue well into 2022. Rasmus explains ‘stagflation’ likely coming, as US GDP and economic recovery is faltering 3rd quarter 2021 while inflation continues to escalate.
Dr. Rasmus takes on three important economic announcements in past 2 days to explain what’s behind the hype. Is the Debt Ceiling really an issue? Why not. So why is hyped in the media and in Congress that it is? What is history of US deficits & debt run up from 2000 to 2020. What does debt & debt ceiling have to do with ensuring US economic empire? Next: the just released jobs report for Sept and why recall of pandemic jobs has now ‘hit a wall’. Real reasons why US workers not returning to work. Is this the ‘great strike of 2021’? Next: What’s happening to Biden’s Build Back Better bill and why is it going to be cut from $3.5T to less than $2T? Next: Announcement of global minimum 15% corporate tax agreement. Why US Senate will use it to cut domestic US corporate taxes next year from Biden’s proposed 26%.
Dr. Rasmus describes this past week’s latest maneuvers within the Democratic party with regard to the Infrastructure, Reconciliation & Debt Ceiling bills. Pelosi’s reneging on agreements with the party’s progressives this past week and what it means. Rasmus explains the evolution of Progressives’ positions since last March, agreements made this past July, and why Pelosi has decided on separate votes for Infrastructure and Reconciliation bills. Why the debt ceiling, passed yesterday, was never an issue and why the US can never default on its bonds. The party’s corporate wing strategy to pass Infrastructure and slash Reconciliation. Manchin’s ‘secret memo’ of July and positions. Likely scenarios ahead by Pelosi-Schumer to pass the Infrastructure bill and reconstitute the Reconciliation bill. Why progressives will get outmaneuvered again. The lack of additional economic stimulus amid the slowing of the US economy. The show concludes with comments about the continuing problem of Evergrande to the global capitalist financial economy.