OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast: Recent Episodes
OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast
Build your edge with insights from the team of economists and analysts from OCBC Treasury Research & Strategy. Stay ahead of trends and developments on the economies and asset classes including FX, rates, fixed income/bonds, commodities
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In our last episode of Back to the Future, we speak to Liu Fengyuan, CEO and co-founder of BasisAI. He shares how his Singapore-based artificial intelligence start-up helps companies around the region find and use data "responsibly". The ex-chief data scientist for the Singapore government also reveals how he rolled out the Smart Nation initiative.
How has Covid-19 made the role of human resources more important? Is working from home a permanent solution? In this episode, we speak to ex-Singapore naval officer CheeTung Leong about how his experience laid the foundation for his start-up, EngageRocket. The firm uses cloud-based software to help leaders and organisations make better decision about hires and employees using real-time data.
Siva Ramanathan shares how he is applying his decades of experience setting up new operations for the likes of AirAsia and applying it to new ventures, such as China-based, cross-border e-payments KSher. He also shares his thoughts on how traditional companies can reinvent themselves to attract young talents and position for the future.
Teddy Oetomo built Bukalapak to take small convenience shops scattered across the country and help them go global with his e-commerce platform. Hear how he did it, and why he thinks SPACs (special purpose acquisiton companies) have dominated market discussion about the tech industry.
Wellian Wiranto speaks to Eddy Christian Ng about his entrepreneurial journey, that has taken him from creating an online furniture marketplace, helping suppliers get access to working capital through blockchain tech, and now, mentoring young start-ups while in the venture capital space.
In this episode recorded 14 April 2021, the Credit Research team discusses the Singapore property market and whether cooling measures are imminent, what the best REIT sectors are, as well as idiosyncratic developments with Credit Suisse, China Huarong and Alibaba.
Cryptocurrencies is all the rage. In this episode, Wellian Wiranto speaks to Jeth Soetoyo of Pintu, an Indonesia-based cryptocurrency exchange. Come learn the difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum, the rising importance of bitcoin technology in creating decentralised financial systems, and whether it's possible to regulate something that seems to exist in the Matrix.
Wellian Wiranto chats with Jonathan Ng of SinFooTech, the Singaporean start-up turning food waste and by-products into alcohol.
CapitaLand is undergoing major restructuring and will go private after more than 20 years of being publicly listed. It is also spinning out CapitaLand Investments Management as a separately listed entity. Although shareholders have rejoiced, how are bondholders and perp holders impacted? What would happen to CapitaLand-sponsored REITs?
Wellian Wiranto speaks to Steve Piro, founder of Synergy, the company that retrofits buildings across Indonesia to cut electricity consumption using innovative financing incentives. Hear how the American found the right local partners, learned things he did not expect to on the go and pushed his vision for a greener world.
In this new podcast series, economist Wellian Wiranto speaks to start-ups revving to go in the post-pandemic world. Our first episode is a chat with Abraham Viktor, the co-founder and CEO of Hangry, an Indonesian "cloud kitchen" start-up finding a foothold in a large nation increasingly reliant on their mobile phones. Hear from Abraham about the challenges and advantages of operating post-Covid, and what makes him tick.
In this podcast, our FX specialist Terence Wu looks at how the pass-through from the yield environment to the US Dollar is currently very diffused, with different elements pulling the Dollar in different directions. He argues, however, that it is likely to evolve into a net-positive for the US Dollar in the medium term.
Does the latest 4Q20 GDP growth estimates change the 2021 growth trajectory or policy outlook? Could it mean a less generous 2021 Budget? Or might we see the MAS recalibrating its monetary policy settings?
Developments for Financial Institutions in 2020 comprimised a mix of positive and negative influences that enabled banks to become shock absorbers for the global economy. Against a weaker operating environment and higher systemic risk in 2021 are better underlying fundamentals while government support is no longer hypothetical and has addressed both liquidity and solvency risks. Combined with stable and solid capital buffers, we are constructive on better quality credits in the Financial Institutions space and their bank capital instruments for 2021.
What is a Temasek Linked Company and why are they favoured in the SGD bond market? Temasek, a global investor, is the major shareholder of issuers who form a sizeable part of the SGD bond market. However, what constitutes a Temasek Linked Company is more fluid and dependent on interpretation. In this podcast, our credit research analyst Ezien Hoo explains how the team defines this space and highlights the key considerations to look out for when investing in bonds issued by Temasek Linked Companies.
Housing prices crashed during the Global Financial Crisis. So why didn't prices collapse in 2020's recession? Our credit research analyst Wong Hong Wei looks at the Crazy Rich who continued to buy properties in the year of the pandemic. Find out where the popular locations are and how much property prices could increase this year.
Four key trends dominated the REIT market in 2020. The largest REIT was created last year, along with more REITs expanding overseas aggressively. Over the year, we also saw travel restrictions and stay home orders negatively impactingà the various property types. Some of the pain may be brief but for others, it might be trouble to reach an even recovery. Tune in to find out how our credit research analysts view the different property assets.
This looks like the start of a super commodity cycle. Watch for gold to make new highs once more in 2021.
Although downside risks dominate, we think manageable credit risk in 2021 can enable investors to selectively look for higher yielding credits for returns in a low rate environment, although don’t stray too far away from fundamentals.
For Singapore, an unprecedented recession in 2020 should give way to a return to positive growth in 2021 amid the Covid-19 vaccine rollout and sustained policy support.
The USD should remain under negative pressure in early 2021 as the market should still be focusing on positives and retaining a risk-on posture. However, some USD positive drivers are slowly developing under the radar. So watch for potential turning points that may shift attention towards this area and alter the USD trajectory.
Vaccine haves and have-nots. Stepping into 2021, let’s take a look at the potential tail risks presented by vaccine development. On the positive end, if we can find more “sweet spot” vaccines that are not just effective but relatively easy to roll out in many developing countries, we would see a great upsurge in consumer and business confidence. On the flip side, if such vaccines are not readily available, a sharp dichotomy between the (vaccinated) rich world and (unvaccinated) others could have tremendous negative implications on market sentiment towards emerging markets in 2021.
While we have seen accelerated growth in online sales, it is not end of physical stores in Singapore. Among other things, location is the key factor that can help to cushion downside impacts. In the short term, non-performing tenants would depart, and malls may have to accept negative rental reversion to bring in new tenants. Over the long term, we expect the malls to continue to attract new tenants and to evolve with the times.
The rotation of funds from growth to value has begun with the recent breakthroughs in Covid-19 vaccines. Among the commodity space, we see oil benefiting from this rotation due to its relative value.
As policies continue to prioritise the development of natural gas as a way for China to reduce its reliance on coal, OCBC Credit Research weighs the merits and risks of investing in this USD bond issuer.
We focus on Singapore's favourite past-time: Food. Serving Chicken Joy fried chicken, Cheesy Yumburger and Spaghetti laced with sweet sauce, the company which is also the fast food champion of the Philippines has captured the hearts of families, individuals and our credit research analyst alike.
Our commodity calls are coming into play quite nicely. Oil appears to be at a critical juncture and looks poised for the next medium-term trend.
Our Chief Economist, Selena Ling, and our FX Strategist, Terence Wu, discuss the main takeaways from Singapore's 3Q GDP release and the MAS monetary policy statement.
What does this mean? What's the rational behind that? What's the possible implication on RMB? In this podcast, we will try to answer those questions.
Bullish agriculture, neutral crude oil and bearish industrial metals. Find out why in this week's edition of Commodities Tuesdays.
In this podcast, our chief economist, Selena Ling, discusses the Singapore property market, what the transition to Phase 3 will mean for GDP growth, and the upcoming MAS monetary policy meeting.
Why Libya’s production resumption tilts the oil market, and why we think metals will continue to face downward pressure.
These REITs capitalise on opportunities but for whose benefit and at whose expense? Tune in to find out more.
With the building risk-off momentum, we think energy and industrial metals are under pressure.
In this podcast, we touch on the developments on the Sino-US front and the on-track macro recovery in China as positives for the RMB. Further details and other positives, such as a seeming shift in official stance towards the RMB and yield differentials, are covered in our recently published FX Viewpoint - RMB: Still room to strengthen, available on our research website.
Given the imposition of cross border travel restrictions, the tourism industry across ASEAN countries has suffered a tremendous hit. Into the void comes the idea that domestic travellers, who cannot venture abroad, may offer some salvation in the meantime, bolstered by government stimulus incentives. We examine the potential for such help in a few countries here.
In March and April, we lowered the issuer profile of hospitality issuers under our coverage as international borders started closing, along with dampening travel demand. Five months on, how have SGD hospitality bond issuers fared? In this podcast, our credit research analyst, Ezien Hoo, discusses the opportunity and risks within this SGD bond sector.
Energy, base metals, agriculture - that is how we rank our bullishness among the sub sectors, in ascending order. Listen to find out more!
We are often led to believe that a Republican president will be USD-positive due to the perception that the president will more likely bring US macro outperformance. Historically, we find no systematic relationship between the USD performance and the winning president's party. Instead, we should consider whether a Trump or a Biden administration is better placed to address the current USD-negative drivers. Taking this approach suggests that a Biden administration may not be as USD-negative in the near term as you may believe.
Metals continue their run up, while energy sagged on a series of negative news. Agriculture looks like it may be the next outperformer.
The latest MAS survey of professional forecasters (SPF) shared some interesting insights, namely the worst is likely over, but the Singapore economy will still see a severe 2020 recession with GDP growth likely to shrink 6% yoy. However, there may be a sharp growth bounce of 5.5% in 2021, notwithstanding the familiar risks of an escalation in the Covid-19 pandemic and US-China tensions. Consequently, the mild disinflationary environment should subside and revert to positive inflation prints next year. The policy implication is that MAS is likely to be static at the upcoming monetary policy review in October.
OCBC Bank Credit Analyst Andrew Wong shares in this podcast recent developments in the credit market and the interest rate outlook. He expects credit market activity to remain brisk in September and that issuers will begin to have better clarity on their performance for 2020 as we enter the final month of 3Q2020. Check out the monthly credit view on the OCBC website for further information on bond level recommendation changes.
Fed chair Powell has articulated a shift to an average inflation target of 2%. This has given the green light to the risk rally. But the market is also concerned about prospects of a K-shaped recovery. What does this mean for the Singapore economy? Tune in and find out!
China’s buying of energy, industrial metals and agriculture commodities continues, keeping prices supported across the spectrum.
What are the new parameters adding to the current US-China tension? Is this time different? Reasons why we think China may not go down the path of tit-for-tat despite the significant escalation of the tension. This could be the relief the global financial market needs.
We are maintaining our issuer profile on Keppel despite its credit metric deterioration and single largest shareholder walking away from the pre-conditional partial takeover offer. Despite equity markets reacting negatively to the developments, reaction on Keppel's bonds has been far more muted.
Singapore's 2Q20 GDP growth was revised to -13.2% year-on-year, down from initial flash estimates of -12.6% year-on-year. While manufacturing, construction and the services sectors have taken a big hit, there's a silver lining in the finance and insurance sector which still saw positive growth of 3.4% year-on-year, despite it being half of the 8.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2020. With escalating US-China tensions, and the long-tail nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, Singapore's GDP growth may continue to contract, albeit by a milder 7.5% and 1.5% year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters of this year respectively.
OCBC Credit Research recently published its monthly credit view for August with some interesting trends in the US, Asia dollar and SGD space. In all, the technical environment remains strong but the team remains cautious on the fundamental outlook. Investors however are continuing to search for yield and this could drive demand back to structural high yield instruments. Activity in the SGD space has firmed up with the total number of bond level recommendation changes falling. With swap rates lower m/m, we still see value with 19 bond level recommendations raised and 13 lowered. Please check out our monthly credit view on the OCBC website for further information on these bond level recommendation changes.
Tensions between the US and China have hit an all-time high. What's brewing between the world's superpowers? Our economists, Wellian Wiranto and Tommy Xie, break down how the two largest economies in the world have been dealing with the political fallout, the Covid-19 pandemic, and what lies ahead as the fate of their economies hang in the balance.
With markets so volatile, should investors be investing now or waiting for blue skies? Our Executive Director of Investment Strategy, Vasu Menon, advises investors to stay invested using a dollar cost averaging strategy, instead of trying to time the markets or bottom-fishing investments. This can benefit investors by lowering the average cost per share of an investment, and is a good and systematic way of investing in the markets during times of uncertainty. This podcast was recorded on 27 July 2020.
With public health considerations taking priority, the economic fallout of COVID-19 has spread beyond directly-hit sectors like travel and hospitality, and into others. In the fourth and final podcast of the series, the OCBC Credit Research team identifies the area of vulnerabilities and shares their updated views on industry sectors who form the main issuers.
The year began with a storm and SREITs underwent a turbulent period, which saw their equity prices plunging in mid-March. As Singapore emerges from the circuit breaker, each asset type continues to face headwinds - though some are expected to be more resilient than others. Tune in to hear our credit research team's outlook on each type of REIT.
Are there compelling reasons to look at Singdollar bonds? In this podcast, our credit analyst introduces Singdollar bonds, which provide a number of unique selling propositions. Among other things, he explains why and how Singdollar bonds should benefit from the SGD being a good store of value and a safe haven backed by reserves.
Heading into 2H2020, significant risks and opportunities abound. Defaults globally are expected to rise and in the SGD market, an issuer has just missed the payment of a bond upon maturity. Interest rates pinned to the floor with an uncertain outlook may turn perpetuals into fodder to buffer balance sheets, as evidenced by the non-call of ARTSP 3.065%-PERP. Although credit spreads have widened significantly even for fundamentally sound issuers. unpredictability with the pandemic leads us to recommend investors stay defensive and in high quality credits. As part of a diverse basket however, we think it is opportune for investors to expand beyond the highest grades to consider also Neutral (4) Issuer Profile names under our profile with the worst of the credit crunch likely behind us.
Malaysia’s stringent MCO restriction orders have helped keep COVID-19 case numbers under control. It can now shift the focus towards economic recovery. The tentative reopening of the global economy should help its export-dependent sectors - so would the quiet pickup in global oil prices. Still, it will not be an all-clear second half of 2020 for Malaysia, partly because of the fractured political landscape.
Here are three key questions to which investors are seeking answers:
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Is the worst over for the global economy?
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Is this market rally sustainable?
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Should one be concerned that policy makers are adopting a “whatever it takes” approach to the Covid-19 pandemic?
Come find out the answers in this podcast by our chief economist, Selena Ling.
With the authorities busy slashing their growth forecasts, there are concerns that Indonesia might be suffering a recession for the first time since the Asian Financial Crisis. Our economist Wellian Wiranto thinks there is hope that it can avoid that fate, but a lot still hinges on whether Indonesia can tackle the latest uptick in coronavirus cases.
The likes of Breadtalk and Perennial have either delisted or are looking to privatise, joining the ranks of NOL, CWT and Global Logistics Properties. But when shares are delisted, what happens to the bonds?
In this podcast, credit research analyst Wong Hong Wei answers the following questions:
Why do companies privatise?
What are the repercussions for bondholders?
Which area should you pay attention to if you are a bondholder?
The electronics supply chain has proven resilient thus far, even in the face of Covid-19. Why is this the case and how will it impact the economies that produce them?
All communities in Beijing have entered “wartime” status. Should we be worried about the Covid-19 outbreak in Beijing? In today’s podcast, our Head of Greater China Research Tommy will tackle the following questions: How has Beijing’s reaction been so far? Could fish be responsible for the spread of coronavirus? And could Beijing become the second Wuhan?
Our credit research analysts have upgraded their issuer profile on Sembcorp, on the back of the company announcing a two-step transaction which will see it spinning off its marine arm. They view this move to be credit positive for the issuer, allowing Sembcorp to focus its resources on its energy and urban segments.
Ascott Residence Trust (ART) did not call its perpetual, an unprecedented move for a S-REIT. Why didn't ART call, and will it eventually call? In this podcast, our credit research analysts Ezien Hoo and Wong Hong Wei discuss the reasons and whether other perpetuals face similar risks.
As companies deliberate the value add of office spaces and whether they actually need all of the office space they have, we think more may be open to a hybrid operating model. Over the longer term, what would it mean for the office REITs?
The two-month Circuit Breaker is coming to an end, but the Singapore economy will only be re-opened in phases. What will our GDP and our market outlook like? In this podcast, our chief economist Selena Ling and Head of OCBC Investment Research Carmen Lee answer the questions on our minds, like what we could see in the fourth Budget next week, equity sectors that are doing well, and what Singaporeans could do to future-proof themselves amid this new normal.
We lowered our issuer profile on Frasers Property Limited, driven by expectations that the recurring income at Frasers Property is likely to fall with a knock-on effect on leverage ratios, though the company has taken steps to mitigate the impact from the virus outbreak. OCBC Credit Research team sits down to discuss this change and possible implications to its Sponsored REITs. This podcast was recorded on 19/05/2020
What do pharmaceuticals, non-monetary gold and food preparations have in common? They were the key drivers of S’pore’s non-oil export outperformance in April despite the ongoing Circuit Breaker! The low NODX base in 2019 due to the US-China trade war may limit the NODX fallout in 2Q20, but the global re-opening of economies post-lockdown and the risk of subsequent infection wages will be key for NODX momentum in 2H20.
The commodity sector has stabilised in the past couple of weeks, leading to a rally in commodity currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD. In the near term, however, we see signs of bearish pressure forming in this space. This podcast was recorded on 15/05/2020
Rates have come down and spreads have widened. With companies facing potential liquidity squeeze, perpetual bonds see elevated risk of non call in our view. Bank capital - Additional Tier 1 which serve regulatory purposes amongst others may be arguably less affected as compared to perpetual bonds issued by REITs. Given the heightened uncertainty, Ocbc credit research underweights perpetual bonds as an asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 11/05/2020
It has been just over 3 months since COVID-19 came into view in Singapore. The OCBC Credit Research team sits with Tommy Xie, our Head of Greater China Research who has been tracking the outbreak from the start to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the banking, property and REIT sectors, being key issuing sectors in the SGD corporate bond market. This podcast was recorded on 11/05/2020
Optimism may be slowly creeping back into the oil market, but the market remains incredibly soft. Even if the worst is behind, the market still lacks a strong catalyst to embark on a strong rally. The negative prices seen last month, however, now appears to be an outlier.
While the reopening of the Malaysian economy would help save jobs and businesses, the pace of recovery may remain subdued. Hesitation among some state governments is one factor, as firms - big and small alike - contemplate kickstarting their business at a gingerly pace, as well. To help growth, monetary policy accommodation would remain the focus due to fiscal constraints.
As many countries contemplate lifting lockdowns and easing containment measures, the incoming economic data like the April manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) remain fairly grim. A re-escalation of US-China bilateral relations may pose a potential headwind for the 2H20 recovery story.
Investors are re-considering the importance of the underlying physical assets within REITs after years of yield-chasing. Our economists posit that Industrial REITs have income streams that are relatively more resilient compared to other REITs in this environment though pockets of stress exist, given the large divergence of property sub-types, which range from business parks to warehouses.
The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked investments and research into developing a vaccine with certain segments of the healthcare sector expected to benefit from it. With markets likely to stay volatile for the near to medium term, Head of OCBC Investment Research Carmen Lee explains why healthcare stocks should form part of the core holdings in a diversified portfolio.
The broad USD seems hampered in the near term on the back of a sustained risk positive tilt. However, we remain cautious due to the impact of month-end flows for now. Meanwhile, Asian currencies may have strengthened beyond its implied valuations in the near term. Structurally, they probably have not adjusted enough relative to the negative macro hit. Overall, still prefer to be negative on the Asian currencies on the medium term horizon. (Recorded April 29, 2020)
After revisiting the assumptions for a return to normalcy, we found that the hype of reopening the economy could be overblown. Too many questions about antibodies and possible mutations remain unanswered. So what's next?
The Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) repeatedly touched the strong end of trading band last week and triggered HKMA’s intervention for the first time since 2015. Will HKD continue to strengthen and trigger more intervention? Will this guide the local rates lower and render some support to the damaged economy?
The Government has launched relief measures to help S-REITs such as extending deadlines for distribution of taxable income and raising the leverage limit and deferment of new regulatory requirements. While these are expected to help alleviate some pressure the sector is facing from the pandemic, Head of OCBC Investment Research Carmen Lee feels that investors should look towards government-linked REITs for the long term.
Will the additional $3.8b of extended support offset the economic pain of another month of circuit breaker? Will 2Q20 recession be deeper? Will we see a bounce back in 2H20? (Recorded April 22, 2020)
MAS announced last Friday that it is raising the aggregate leverage limit for S-REITs to 50% from 45% with immediate effect. IRAS too is giving the S-REITs more time to distribute at least 90% of their FY2020 taxable income to unitholders. Tenants of S-REITs too are receiving support. What does this mean to S-REITs? Are these credit positive? (Recorded April 21, 2020)
It's not the end of the world. Negative prices on WTI on Monday (April 20) were a result of diminishing storage in the US, not a market meltdown. Besides, only one particular contract saw negative prices. Negative prices might come round again until we have a pickup in demand, or the US cuts its oil output. Also, it is unlikely petrol pumps will pay consumers money to fill their cars. (Recorded April 21)
China posted a GDP growth contraction in Q1. However, macro indicators have suggested a gentle rebound is underway. Key commodity indicators suggests that this may be indeed true.
China reported its first economic contraction in the first quarter. But the equity market ended the day higher. What does this mixed reaction tell us? What are the silver linings? Is it too early to expect a V-shape recovery in China?
The IMF has slashed their 2020 global growth forecast to -3% assuming the Covid-19 pandemic fades and containment efforts are gradually unwound in 2H20. However, downside risks still remain. Decisive and sizeable policy stimulus have help to stabilize investor sentiments recently and market liquidity has also improved somewhat. The turbocharge from coordinated global policy easing will work at some point. Look for opportunities to dribble in if investor sentiments continues to back away from extreme risk-off levels going ahead, even if 2Q20 growth remains dire. (Recorded April 15, 2020)
It is difficult to have any near term market outlook clarity due to the evolving situation on the Covid-19 front. With current sharp volatility and persistent concern of a lack of liquidity in the market, it is prudent for investors to take a long-term view on equities. Ms Carmen Lee, Head of OCBC Investment Research, explains why fundamentally sound companies with established business track records and consistent dividend payouts are still favoured. This podcast was recorded on 13/04/2020.
Caution has not paid in the past few sessions, with investors looking to entrench a positive tilt in risk appetite. We think there is still room for cyclical currencies to extend their run in the immediate horizon. However, we don't see it as the start of a structural improvement in risk sentiment due to the worsening macro trajectory that is still to come. Thus, in a multi-week time horizon, we continue to prefer a defensive posture and staying long of the USD against the cyclicals.
Oil prices suffered a rout in March but OPEC+ has since convened on an emergency meeting to cut supply. What does this mean for the markets and you as a consumer? (Recorded on April 14, 2020)
While the aviation sector regularly makes headlines and has garnered financial support from governments globally, less attention has been paid on the hospitality sector. Our credit analysts take an in-depth look at the credit impact on Ascott Residence Trust, Frasers Hospitality Trust and Shangri-La being key hospitality issuers in the SGD bond market.
With Covid-19 cases on the rise, the Indonesian government has announced big stimulus package to bulk up the healthcare sector and strengthen the social safety net. We discuss the challenges they face and some silver linings here. (Recorded April 9, 2020)
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the way business is conducted worldwide and one clear trend has emerged. People still need to stay connected. Telecommunications and telecommuting will remain a key trend and will likely persist even after this crisis is over. Ms Carmen Lee, Head of OCBC Investment Research, highlights some possible entry points which have emerged in the technology sector. This podcast was recorded on 06/04/20.
Singapore just announced its third budget in two months. This comes on the eve of the one month circuit breaker which will see the closures of all schools and many firms except for essential services to flatten the covid-19 curve. With 3 budgets amounting to $59.9b (12% of GDP), will this do the trick of saving the Singapore economy? (Recorded April 6)
Our Head of Wealth Advisory, Kelvin Goh, tells us how being a 'lazy' investor and adopting dollar cost averaging as an investment strategy could work well for newer investors. If you suffer from investment inertia, consider monthly investment plans that put your investments on 'autopilot'.
Malaysia has launched an unprecedented stimulus package, slated to be worth 17% of GDP. We discuss the implications here.
Our OCBC Credit Research team shares their views on whether government and central bank stimulus will alleviate the pain in credit markets today and what lies ahead. They also point out where investors may be able to find shelter in this storm and note four key fundamental calls.
Gold remains an important investment asset to investors, but should the Gold Standard return? We think not. The Covid-19 episode has seen massive support policies from governments around the world - which would likely have been much smaller if the Gold Standard was still in place.
Imposing a city-wide lockdown is important in the initial stages of dealing with an infectious disease, so as to "flatten the curve" and prevent one's healthcare systems from being overrun. But it is not the magic solution when the disease has evolved into a global pandemic. Our global economy has ground to a halt, and is not sustainable. How can we balance the need to restart the economy without compromising efforts to contain the outbreak?
In this podcast, we break down the policy decisions by the MAS in its Monetary Policy Statement released on 30 March 2020. Overall, the decisions were in line with our expectations, especially when it comes to the slight re-centre of the policy band. (Recorded 30 March 2020)
Singapore’s 1Q20 GDP contraction of 2.2% y-o-y was double expectations and marked the worst performance since 2009. Hence it came as no surprise that a mega-sized Resilience Package of $48 billion was unveiled. Will this be sufficient to ward off the imminent recession?
What are the operating and credit metrics that can offer us some insights amid this turbulent period? How can REITs, which typically do not hold much cash, boost its liquidity if needed? Credit research analyst Seow Zhi Qi believes it's reasonable to expect pockets of opportunity to pick up bullet bonds issued by quality REITs at slashed prices - though she discourages panic selling. Investors who have the holding power can also continue to hold on to their existing high-grade REIT bullet bonds as long as the fundamentals of the REITs remain intact.
The rapidly changing Covid-19 pandemic situation has caused market volatility and recession fears, with a lack of earnings clarity adding uncertainty to Asian markets. Ms Carmen Lee, Head of OCBC Investment Research, highlights how fiscal policy and stimulus from key countries are expected to provide some comfort in Q2 2020. This podcast was recorded on 23/03/2020 https://anchor.fm/ocbc
Many in their 30s and 40s struggle with retirement planning, but if you want to retire on $3,000 a month for 20 years, you would need to accumulate at least $1.3 million. It may sound daunting, but don't be afraid. Our Head of Wealth Management Singapore, Tan Siew Lee, has quick tips to help you get started on your plans.
We expect that reducing the slope of the SGD NEER to a zero appreciation path will be an easy decision to make. Whether to lower the policy band, however, is less obvious and we prefer to watch the SGD NEER for cues. On balance, if the SGD NEER is higher than -1.00% below parity going into the scheduled March MPS, the lowering of the policy band may have little additional impact on the economy. On the flip side, if the SGD NEER softens further from now till 30 March, the likelihood of a lowering of the policy band will be correspondingly increased.
Singapore saw its first negative core inflation print in a decade in February 2020. A further downgrade of the official 2020 GDP growth forecast and the headline and core inflation forecasts are imminent and this will pave the way for coordinated fiscal and monetary policy easing sooner rather than later. Watch for the advance 1Q20 growth estimate on 26 March and MAS monetary policy statement on 30 March.
In this week’s Covid-19 update, our Head of Greater China Research Tommy Xie looks at the progress scientists are making in fighting the novel coronavirus on two frontlines, including treatment and vaccine.
Even though concerns about Rupiah volatility is never far off its radar, Bank Indonesia has decided that the need to support growth amidst mounting challenges is paramount - for now.
We lowered our issuer profile on SIA for a second time in two weeks on the back of the swift deterioration in industry conditions and expectation of a stretched liquidity situation going into the next quarter.
Gold has gotten sold off in the last two weeks, largely on liquidity fears. That doesn’t mean it has lost its status as a safe haven asset. Rather, it shows how severe fears of a liquidity crunch is as Covid-19 continues to distort global markets. (18 March 2020)
As corporate credit stress comes into focus, do we avoid SGD corporate bonds altogether? In this turbulent time for the economy and financial markets, we centre our focus on the high grade parts of the SGD bond market. Rather than wait for an absolute bottom, we search for high quality issuers and start positioning for that.
This podcast discusses the prospects of Asian currencies in the medium term amid a climate of potential rate cuts at the Asian central banks and growth downgrades stemming from the COVID-19 spread. Using the MYR as an example, we find very little to cheer about for the Asian currencies. Thus, it may be very difficult to back the Asian currencies at this juncture.
Most of our travel plans in the next few weeks have been disrupted by Covid-19. Check out the latest development and trends via our weekly Covid-19 podcast. This week, we share with you bad news, good news, and what to watch out for going forward.
Aggressive policy easing, market panic and fear characterize the current Covid-19 situation. So where do we go from here? Our chief economist Selena Ling says that liquidity is the key, but heightened recession risks remain.
A second stimulus package and the continued support of workers and SMEs as the Covid-19 outbreak continues. These are just some of the topics that DPM Heng Swee Keat discussed with panellists including our head of global commercial banking Linus Goh.
Are there any silver linings in this season of Covid-19 market mania? Our experts - Chief Economist, Selena Ling, Executive Director of Investment Strategy, Vasu Menon, and Head of OCBC Investment Research, Carmen Lee - share their thoughts on how investors can best navigate these turbulent times. This podcast was recorded on - 10 March 2020
After the Fed’s emergency 50bps rate cut last week, what’s next? Will SGD interest rates follow suit? Will lower rates for longer help to turn around the economy, which is facing Covid-19 challenges?
What's an investor to do in this time of market crisis? Keep a cool head and have some perspective. Hear what our Head of Wealth Advisory, Kelvin Goh, has to say.
While the appointment of seasoned banker Tengku Zafrul will help to bolster market confidence, the honeymoon period will be short. Malaysia faces a tricky fiscal challenge ahead as the oil price slump cuts a major source of government revenue, at a time when more fiscal stimulus is needed to help counter the impact of the viral outbreak.
Oil might fall back to $30, no thanks to a fallout between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Learn more about how this came about, and how it impacts the economy.
It’s now 12 consecutive months of dips in retail sales and with things only expected to pick up again after the first half of the year, Singapore could face its longest period of negative retail growth in 10 years.
Are companies really getting hit hard by the COVID-19 outbreak? Which industries are the most vulnerable? At OCBC Credit Research, we have good news and bad news to share.
Gold hit its record high in the years after the GFC. Can coronavirus fears drive gold past that prior high?
As COVID-19 spreads globally, risk-off sentiment has taken hold and guided FX moves. However, a turnaround may be on the horizon?
Political uncertainties compound the impact of the virus on Malaysia. While Indonesia has apparently escaped huge outbreaks thus far, the danger remains.
With China’s February PMI fell to a record low level, is China heading towards a recession? On a positive note, China’s efforts to contain the spread starts to pay off, what shall we focus next?
2020 GDP growth may flatline due to Covid-19 outbreak, but Budget 2020 provides a strong fiscal response. Is it enough?
How has the Singapore stock market been impacted amid the current coronavirus outbreak? Ms Carmen Lee, Head of OCBC Investment Research, highlights sectors which are still showing strong growth. Go to https://www.ocbc.com/…/what-investors-should-be-looking-at-… to find out more.
Gold is a useful investment asset that is a good hedge against inflation and fear sentiments such as in times of geopolitical tensions, recessions and virus pandemics. Howie Lee, Economist at OCBC Bank shares what influences the prices of gold.
Despite the uncertainty caused by the US-China trade war and Brexit, assets such as equities, bonds and even gold rose in 2019. Ms Carmen Lee, Head of OCBC Investment Research, shares what’s in store for investors in the year ahead.
Investors have been watching interest rates closely. What else could affect property prices, or the performance of property developers and REITs listed in the Singapore market? Andy Wong, Senior Investment Analyst at OCBC Investment Research, shares his thoughts.
We may stave off this recession, but can we escape the next? Howie Lee, Economist at OCBC Bank, shares his views on how a prolonged low-interest-rate environment potentially raises medium-term risks and what companies can do to create long term sustainable growth for themselves.
Jessica Goh, Product Manager for Investments teaches how to manage risks and overcome your fear of investing.
For more about Singapore's First Financial Wellness Index - https://www.ocbc.com/simplyspoton/
Wayne Chua, Head of Bancassurance shares how not to let a personal crisis become a financial crisis.
For more about Singapore's First Financial Wellness Index - https://www.ocbc.com/simplyspoton/
Learn about the flows of money, tricks of saving and how to balance your budget from Tan Siew Lee, Head of Wealth Management (Singapore)
For more about Singapore's First Financial Wellness Index - https://www.ocbc.com/simplyspoton/
Understand the two sides to debt and how to be its master.
For more about Singapore's First Financial Wellness Index - https://www.ocbc.com/simplyspoton/
A Sino-American trade deal appears imminent, which would likely deliver a short-term boost to China's economy, financial markets and the yuan. However, China continues to face long-term challenges relating to economic growth and its bilateral relations with the United States. Tommy Xie, OCBC Bank's Head of Greater China Research, discusses how the world's second-largest economy could navigate this demanding landscape.