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The United States continues to outspend the People’s Republic of China in defense, but China has been rapidly increasing its rate of military spending. And China has the world’s largest number of active military personnel, outpacing runner-up India by more than 500,000 troops. The U.S. has the world’s third-highest number of active personnel.
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 passed the Senate on a 50-50 party line vote, with Vice President Harris breaking the tie, and passed the House on a party-line 220-207 vote. There have been many arguments both for and against the $437 billion spending bill, and a final Congressional Budget Office estimate is still weeks away. We have compiled the most up-to-date projections on the final bill as passed, as well as arguments on both sides.
On many days, Washington seems more dysfunctional than ever. But over the past year, Congress has also managed to pass several hugely consequential pieces of bipartisan legislation. As these examples below show, leaders in Washington can still get the people’s business done when they put their minds to it.
The seeds of the Capitol Hill violence on January 6, 2021 were sown by both then-President Trump and House Republicans challenging the validity of electoral slates from the states. Unfortunately, baseless challenges of electoral votes have become common in the aftermath of presidential elections. The recently introduced Electoral Count Reform Act — introduced by a bipartisan group of 16 senators — has several provisions that would make it harder to challenge or overturn presidential vote counts.
Here are five facts on electoral vote challenges.
1. The results of the 2004 election faced an electoral count challenge even though John Kerry lost both the popular and electoral vote and was not contesting the result.
Kerry lost the popular vote by a margin of more than three million, and lost in the electoral vote 286-252. But his loss in Ohio by fewer than 119,000 votes led Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) to object to the certification of that state’s electors for President George W. Bush. The Senate rejected the objection with only Boxer supporting it and 25 senators not voting; the House voted it down 267-31, with 132 representatives not voting. It was only the second challenge to an electoral slate in U.S. history, following the contentious election of 1876.
2. In two of the challenged cases, the candidate who won the electoral vote lost the popular vote.
In 2000, Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote by a margin of about 544,000, but lost the electoral vote 271-267 after the controversial Florida recount. Though many Democrats believed Gore to be the legitimate winner, he conceded defeat in December following the Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore. Several members of the House attempted to object to certification, but Gore — in his role as presiding officer — rejected these attempts.
Hillary Clinton’s defeat by Donald Trump in 2016 — with Trump winning a comfortable 306-232 Electoral College majority but losing the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million — led to a grassroots effort to deny Trump the presidency by convincing electors to vote for other candidates. In the end, just seven electors voted for candidates other than Clinton or Trump— and five of them were Clinton electors, with the official tally being a 304-227 Trump win. As in 2000, House Democrats tried to challenge, but lacked Senate support. Vice President Joe Biden, presiding, told one representative, “It is over.”
3. Trump was the only defeated candidate who did not accept the results.
Clinton, Gore, and Kerry each accepted their loss before Congress gathered in January to certify the results. The only time a defeated candidate did not accept the loss was in 2020, when Trump refused to concede to Joe Biden despite losing the electoral vote 306-232 and the popular vote by more than seven million.
In December 2020, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) announced plans to challenge the electors in at least five states, but on January 6, 2021 — in part because of the violence of that day — official objections were filed only to the results in Arizona and Pennsylvania. About two-thirds of House Republicans voted to agree to both objections (121 for Arizona and 138 for Pennsylvania), but only six senators backed the Arizona objection, and seven the Pennsylvania objection.
4. Just one in five Americans is “very confident” about the nation’s elections.
An ABC News poll in December 2021 found that just 20% of Americans are “very confident” that our elections are free and fair — down from 37% in a poll conducted just after January 6, 2021. A Morning Consult poll taken in the wake of January 6 found a huge partisan divide: 82% of Democrats said they trust the U.S. election system “a lot” or “some”; just 33% of Republicans said the same.
5. The Senate Electoral Count Reform Act, focused on fixing the original Electoral Count Act of 1876, has 16 co-sponsors: nine Republicans and seven Democrats.
The bill was introduced by Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Susan Collins (R-ME), Chris Coons (D-DE), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Rob Portman (R-OH), Mitt Romney (R-UT), Ben Sasse (R-NE), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Thom Tillis (R-NC), Mark Warner (D-VA), and Todd Young (R-IN).
The legislation would make each state’s governor exclusively responsible for submitting a slate of electors, provide expedited court review of any claims regarding certification of electors, and clarify the roles of the vice president and Congress in counting electoral votes, among other components.
The Federal Reserve oversees the nation’s money supply — the total amount of cash, coins, bank balances, and other liquid instruments in circulation. In addition to raising and lowering interest rates, the Fed can choose the rate at which it creates new currency, which can impact both economic activity and inflation.
Here are five facts on America’s money supply.
1. The broadest Federal Reserve measure of the U.S. money supply is up 36% since before the pandemic.
The Fed measures the money supply in several ways, but under the broadest and most widely used measure, the current U.S. money supply is about $21.8 trillion dollars. That’s compared to just under $16 trillion in early March 2020. During the pandemic, the Fed created nearly four times as much money as had been issued in the two preceding years. Today’s money supply is three times what it was 25 years ago in today’s dollars.
2. During the pandemic, the Fed purchased at least $120 billion per month in securities.
The Fed created dollars during the pandemic, and used much of the new money to buy bonds in an effort to hold down long-term interest rates. In June 2020, the Fed set a rate of purchase of at least $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities each month. It reduced the rate of these purchases in late 2021 and ended purchasing earlier this year.
3. More than $2 trillion of the money created during the pandemic was not spent.
The Fed purchased nearly $5 trillion in mortgage-backed and government securities in all. However, the banks that the Fed paid did not spend more than $2 trillion of that money and instead “parked” it, keeping it out of circulation while seeking investment opportunities. Some economists say this limited the impact of the Fed’s purchases on inflation.
4. The growth in U.S. money supply is now at its slowest rate since the Great Depression.
With the end of pandemic lockdowns in the U.S. and the increase in inflation, the Fed is now significantly slowing money supply growth. “Deposit liabilities” — all the deposits at a bank except for term deposits — are a fair measure of the broad money supply. Since the start of 2022, deposit liabilities have grown at an annual rate of just 0.4%, compared to 18% growth during 2020 and 2021. The long-term average is about seven percent.
5. China’s money supply is up 10.5% since before the pandemic.
China also increased its money supply during the pandemic, but kept it more tightly controlled. Beijing regulates its money supply through a process called “sterilization.” The People’s Bank of China increases the supply of currency domestically, but offsets this by selling the same amount in currency bonds, removing the excess cash from open markets. China also requires commercial banks to keep a percentage of total deposits with the PBOC.
Inflation in the U.S. is running hotter than at any time in the last 40 years. COVID lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, and Russia’s war on Ukraine have all played a role — but so too has the classic driver of inflation taught in Economics 101:
Too much money chasing too few goods. As shown in the charts below, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and Congress have injected more money into our economy than our counterparts abroad, which helps explain why America has one of the higher inflation rates among developed economies.
Semiconductors are essential to U.S. economic and national security and are one of our top five exports. But now America is at serious risk of falling behind Asia, particularly China.
The U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, which has already passed the Senate 68-32, could provide essential funding needed to jumpstart the U.S. semiconductor sector, but the House and Senate are still haggling over the final shape of a bill.
Here are five facts that explain why it’s so important for the U.S. to maintain its lead in the global semiconductor industry.
1. In 1990, the U.S. made 37% of the world’s semiconductors. Last year, the U.S. made 12%.
In addition, in 2019, 100% of the world’s most advanced logic semiconductors — which are used to control the operation of electronic devices by processing digital data — were produced outside the U.S.
But despite the overall decline, U.S. semiconductor exports totaled $49 billion in 2020 — the nation’s fourth-largest export market behind only airplanes, refined oil, and crude oil.
2. Global semiconductor sales are estimated to hit $573 billion this year, up from $527 billion last year and $440 billion in 2020.
The market is expected to top $800 billion by 2028 and $1 trillion by the end of the decade. By 2025, there will be at least 75 billion connected devices that run on semiconductor chips, more than three times the 22.6 billion in 2019. These devices include consumer electronics, telecommunications devices, and connected devices such as sensors and thermostats.
3. For each of the 277,000 Americans directly employed by the semiconductor industry, an additional 5.7 jobs are supported in the broader economy.
That amounts to nearly 1.6 million jobs. Furthermore, more than 300 domestic economic sectors employing more than 26 million Americans rely on semiconductors.
The Semiconductor Industry Association of America says an investment on the scale of USICA would create at least 10 new manufacturing hubs and trigger about $279 billion in additional private sector investment.
4. Eighty percent of semiconductors are now produced in Asia.
The Chinese government is investing $161 billion over 10 years to build the nation’s semiconductor industry. In 2020, China produced just 16% of its semiconductor demand domestically, but Beijing aims to domestically meet 70% of China’s semiconductor demand by 2025 and 80% by 2030.
Taiwan alone produces 92% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and Taiwan’s TSMC makes nearly 90% of the chips used by Amazon, Apple, Google, and other major U.S. tech firms.
5. The European Union produces about nine percent of the world’s semiconductors.
That’s down from 35% in 1990. The European Commission is taking steps to revive Europe’s semiconductor industry, creating the €2 billion EU Chips Fund to back semiconductor start-ups and bolster the European sector and advancing the European Chips Act, which will invest an additional €15 billion in technology-related programs.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 8.6% over the last year, which is the highest inflation reading since 1981. But this headline figure obscures the fact that prices of many essential goods — from supermarket staples to gasoline and housing — are rising even faster, with prices up by double digits over the past year.
This chart shows why, in poll after poll, inflation is now the top concern of voters heading into the 2022 midterm elections.
No Labels National Co-chair Senator Joseph Lieberman joins Margaret and Ryan to give his expert perspective on the war in Ukraine and the dangers of a possible nuclear deal with Iran. Listen on Spotify Podcasts Listen on Apple Podcasts Listen on Amazon Music Listen on Google Podcasts Listen on Sticher
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With the war in Ukraine continuing into its third week, Margaret and Ryan highlight the emergence of two-party proposals to counter Vladimir Putin. Listen on Spotify Podcasts Listen on Apple Podcasts Listen on Amazon Music Listen on Google Podcasts Listen on Sticher Listen on iHeart Radio
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Former U.S. Director of National Intelligence Adm. Dennis Blair joins Ryan for a special conversation on conditions on the ground in Ukraine, and what the U.S. and NATO might do next. Listen on Spotify Podcasts Listen on Apple Podcasts Listen on Amazon Music Listen on Google Podcasts Listen on Sticher
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House Problem Solvers Caucus Co-chairs Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) offered a rare bipartisan perspective on President Biden’s State of the Union address this week. Margaret and Ryan take a look at what they said, and what issues offer opportunities for two-party solutions in a time of crisis. Listen on Spotify Podcasts …
Perspectives on the State of the Union Read More »
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With Europe on the brink of its largest armed conflict in decades, Margaret and Ryan consider whether it is still possible for America’s leaders to come together in times of crisis – and hope that unity will be on the agenda at next week’s State of the Union. Listen on Spotify Podcasts Listen on Apple …
Unity and Ukraine Read More »
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Margaret and Ryan rejoice that they have actual good news on bipartisan progress on Capitol Hill to share. And can the nation get past the specter of January 6 more than one year later? Listen on Spotify Podcasts Listen on Apple Podcasts Listen on Google Podcasts Listen on Amazon Music Listen on Sticher Listen on …
Good News from Washington! Read More »
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Margaret and Ryan discuss the rare bipartisan Sunday show interview with Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski, who reminded viewers that they represent voters, not their parties. Also, a look at the prospects for Electoral Count Act reform in an election year. Listen on Spotify Podcasts Listen on Apple Podcasts Listen on Google Podcasts Listen …
Friends and Partners Read More »
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The first voting of the 2022 election season is just one month away! Texas will be holding the first primaries of the midterm year, and some are very competitive. Margaret and Ryan preview some key races there and across the nation, with a first glimpse of the “wild ride” of Campaign ’22. Listen on Spotify …
Deep in the Heart of Midterms Read More »
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With President Biden marking one year in office, pollsters are asking if the nation is on the right track or the wrong one. But what’s the “right track” for supporters of two-party solutions? And will it be a snowy day in South Carolina before we see bipartisanship on Capitol Hill? Listen on Spotify Podcasts Listen …
On Track in 2022? Read More »
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Margaret and Ryan look at the disconnect between the government/media and the people. In real America, the pandemic and the pocketbook are the real focus. Plus, what grade would you give Joe Biden for Year One? Click here to listen on Spotify Podcasts. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts.
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Casting, counting, and certifying – those are the three key components of voting and elections in America. Democrats are focused on the first, and Republicans on the second – but Margaret and Ryan make the case that it’s the certification of results that is an area of genuine potential progress in a closely divided nation.
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One year after the violence at the U.S. Capitol proved just where partisan divisions can lead, Ryan and guest co-host Liz Morrison look back on that day and look ahead to possible ways to heal the divide.
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As 2021 draws to a close, Margaret and Ryan make their predictions for the new year, both inside the Beltway and beyond.
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Margaret and Ryan break down Sen. Joe Manchin’s call for Democrats to do better than the current Build Back Better Act – why the West Virginia centrist made that decision, and what it means for policy heading into an election year.
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Does the infrastructure bill need to be an outlier? Margaret doesn't think so, arguing that there are many current opportunities for two-party solutions on Capitol Hill. Plus, No Labels veterans Margaret and Ryan mark 11 years since the organization's founding.
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He was Al Gore's running mate in 2000 and then, improbably, almost found himself on a cross-party ticket with his close friend John McCain just eight years later. This week, No Labels National Co-chair and former Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman is our special guest, talking about his new book, filled with fascinating stories about what he learned building relationships across the aisle during his quarter-century in the Senate.
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