Money Life with Chuck Jaffe: Recent Episodes
Chuck Jaffe
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe is leading the way in business and financial radio. The Money Life Podcast is a daily personal finance talk show, Monday through Friday sorting through the financial clutter every day to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that while the stock market has been climbing the wall of worry, the one thing overcoming many of those worries has been that government policy is pro-business and pro-market. As a result, he doesn't expect the stock market to have a down year while President Trump is in office, despite real economic concerns that are worrisome but not having much current impact. He discusses Friday's jobs numbers, the current level of inflation and much more in a wide-ranging Big Interview.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses whether gold's recent rebound will get it all the way back to recent record levels, whether value's domination of growth this year is a sign of long-term market weakness — since value typically dominates only when markets are troubled — and celebrates the 91st birthday of Social Security by noting that he thinks investors with the means to not live off payments shouldn't follow conventional wisdom and wait to collect, preferring instead for them to take the money and reinvest it in the market, to further enhance growth of their long-term retirement portfolio.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts companies that failed his firm's "core earnings leaders" test in The Danger Zone, noting that businesses with higher core earnigns than generally-accepted accounting earnings tend to be more profitable than the market realizes, which means that companies which fail to meet core-earnings tests may be headed for trouble, as they will be less profitable than expected. He cites NXP Semiconductors as an example of a stock that has become grossly overvalued because the market isn't looking at its true earnings picture.
Greg Harmon, founder and president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says the market's bounce this week is a potential sign that the market's next move higher could be starting now. Harmon says the market is broadening out, and has come through "a great earnings season," creating "a strong market, fundamentally and technically." Harmon sees some potential problems, but he says that the market's ability to shrug off bad news will get helped out as some of those worrisome events get solved and fall by the wayside; that leaves him looking at a strong finish to the year for the market, and a good start to 2027 barring "an unexpected crisis."
Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services — which uses a discount-capture strategy with closed-end funds — says that he's seen a lot of "good widenings" of discounts as the market returned to peak levels. A good widening is one where a fund's net asset value goes up more than the price of the closed-end fund itself. It happens when markets get volatile and indexes pull up faster than closed-end funds can move, creating attractive buying opportunities.
In the Other Interview on today's show, James Barra, head of content and research at BrokerListings.com, discusses "Financial Literacy in the TikTok Era: Who Should You Trust," a research paper the site published that took a scientific approach to looking at the financial information on TikTok. Barra says that there's a wide range of content, but an alarming amount of it is "potentially problematic, high risk and largely untrustworthy." Over 70 percent of creators on TikTok have no clear background in financial services and no relevant qualifications and about two-thirds of the content failed to disclose downsides to the advice, conflicts of interest the creator has and more.
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, entered the year saying that the stock market could "4-peat," by posting its fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains. While he says now that the market and economy have legitimate concerns to overcome, they also have fundamentals in place to do just that, setting up the potential for a 5-peat in 2027. Haworth does suggest that investors diversify further to help get them through the trouble spots, but he suggests putting more focus on domestic markets than international, being certain not to get too overloaded in the hot sectors and looking into parts of the fixed-income market where higher yields have been mostly overlooked.
Ron Mastrogiovanni, chief executive officer at HealthView Services, discusses the firm's recent research, titled "Social Security Solvency & Retirement Planning: Calculating Lost Benefits and Income Solutions," which examines the financial impact of potential Social Security benefits reductions on future retirees. The report shows that, without steps to fully fund the program, a 54-year-old couple retiring in eight years receiving average Social Security benefits could lose more than $160,000 over their lifetime, with high-income families losing as much as $500,000. Even if changes are made to extend solvency, Mastrogiovanni suggests everyone — even younger workers — should consider the possibility of lower Social Security benefits as they make retirement plans.
With small-cap stocks staging a strong rally this year — the small-cap index is up more than 20 percent year-to-date — Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi turns to an Avantis fund as his ETF of the Week, noting that the fund brings active management to stock selection, but does less trading than the small-cap index funds that regularly re-constitue as the benchmark changes.
Anthony Caruso, head of ETFs and product strategy at Nomura Asset Management International, says that while artificial intelligence is driving the market, it is also creating opportunities through its struggles, whether that is by punishing companies in industries like software, or forcing capital expenditures and more. He notes that there are strategies in playing the tight supply chains, particularly if investors are willing to consider emerging markets investments. Atthe same time, Caruso — who does not have recession in his outlook for the next year — says that with interest rates higher for longer, investors should take advantage of fixed-income to balance out a portfolio and help them ride out the volatility story.
Paula Fleming, chief marketing officer for the Better Business Bureau of Eastern Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont, discusses savings strategies and the importance of knowing the rules for special days, weeks and weekends when states rescind their sales tax. There's one of those this coming weekend in Massachusetts — but Fleming notes that about half of all states have had some sort of tax-relief day in the last few years and 20 are holding them in 2026 — and Chuck discusses his shopping strategy and planned purchase to capture the discount on a big expense.
In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, chief investment officer at Blue Chip Partners discusses "unappreciated quality stocks" and how even some big names that have run up still qualify.
Dean Christians, lead market strategist at Turning Point Market Research, sees a market that stays in a range-bound no-man's land — the way it has been for a few months now — until late in the year, when there's a strong chance of a year-end rally. Christians says there is a lot of sector rotation happening beneath the surface, with new areas picking up momentum while others, like technology, are losing steam. As a result, he says, "the best course of action is really not to do a whole lot," while waiting for the Federal Reserve to decide its course, which will have the biggest influence on what the market does entering the new year.
Meredith Mangan, managing editor at Credible, discusses the site's survey which found that nearly two-thirds of American homeowners underestimated the true cost of homeownership, and the result, on average, amounts to nearly $5,000 per year in unexpected ownership costs.
In the Market Call, David Snowball, publisher and chief analyst at MutualFundObserver.com, discusses the future of traditional mutual funds, the evolution of ETFs and how new funds today are different from classic offerings before getting down to some funds he likes and dislikes.
Jeff Klingelhofer, portfolio manager at Aristotle Pacific Capital, says that new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is learning on the job, but he appears unafraid to tackle the inflation problem and take the tough medicine of raising interest rates, which is likely to create a recession. The good news out of that trouble, however, is that any downturn is likely to be short-lived, with a rip-snorting bull market emerging from a corrected economy and market.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits Netflix, a long-time Danger Zone pick that he says has moved out of trouble. While it hasn't gone all the way to the "attractive" level, Trainer says there is a much stronger path toward bigger profits and a better balance sheet.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses a little-known hedge fund that collapsed last week, and nearly took the stock market with it. While the fund was bailed out by another hedge fund, Marolia worries that there are other potential market-shockers out there, far more than even savvy investors recognize, and that there may not be any buffers to step in and save the day the next time it happens. In addition, he discusses how earnings expectations have gotten so high that long-term investors need to grit their teeth and ride out extra volatility, and he talks about how artificial intelligence is teaching investors to want everything now, shortening time horizons, promoting excessive risk-taking and creating unrealistic ideas of what real investing can deliver.
Christian Chan, chief investment officer at AssetMark, says that the overall macroeconomic environment is okay — growing above trend but not at exciting levels — but inflation is worrisome, which should have investors looking elsewhere for diversification and protection. The protection side is because he feels fixed-income investments are not as effective at diversifying risk in an inflationary environment. As a result, he is looking at adding precious metals to portfolios, but he also says increasing international exposure and moving from technology and moving toward energy and consumer-driven sectors should smooth out the ride in a volatile market.
In the Talking Technicals segment, Jason Brown of The Brown Report, says he remains bullish in the long-term, but he is bearish for the short term because he wonders "What remains that can take us higher?" Brown, who hosts the "Money, Markets and Mindset" podcast says while there are some positive signs keeping the market stable, "We might be due for a re-set." Factoring in inflation, oil prices, a divided Fed on rate policy and other economic danger signs, he expects the stock market to be trapped in a range, and potentially rolling over.
Scott Caraher, head of senior loans at Nuveen, says that the higher-for-longer interest rate environment has created "one of the most interesting and dynamic times" he has seen for senior loans in his 25-year career. Caraher, who manages Nuveen Floating Rate Income in both its closed-end and open-end forms, says that because senior loans don't face interest-rate risk, they are a powerful play in a market where Federal Reserve policy on rate direction is uncertain, noting that it's possible to create strong portfolios yielding about 7 percent, which he called "incredibly attractive ... on both an absolute and relative basis."
Economist Rebecca Homkes, a lecturer at Duke University and London Business School whose consulting practice focuses on the things that influence the thinking of chief executives, says that the valuations of A.I. companies are sky high because investors believe in the transformational technology, but that when that transformation shows up — and investors worry that an industry like software could get pinched in the transformation — investors tend to panic. She sees concerns that the A.I. funding cycle has become so circular that any troubles could unwind the market quickly, so while she is not expecting a recession or a bubble quickly, she does suggest danger signs are visible now.
Carter Braxton Worth, chief executive officer at Worth Charting — known by many as "the Chart Master" on CNBC — brings technical analysis to the Market Call, noting that he doesn't study companies, he studies shares. Worth notes that he currently favors small-cap financials, utilities and energy companies, and he warns of the "bifurcation of technology," where one area of the sector does very well while another one does very poorly, which he considers a sign of potential trouble ahead. This bifurcation is similar -- but with a technical analysis bent -- to Homkes' explanation of the wild market responses to AI stocks.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, brings the proverbial hammer of THOR to the ETF of the Week, bestowing the weekly title to a new income-focused stock fund from Thornburg that carries that mythic ticker symbol.
David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Funds, says that investor expectations have gotten far enough out of line that the positive conditions and long-term market uptrend just don't seem like they are enough to deliver satisfaction. While unsustainable expectations by themselves won't create a downturn, Ellison — who runs two funds focused on financial-services companies — worries that the sector and the broad market will face more volatility as steady but unspectacular gains are seen as disappointments. He notes that markets can struggle when everyone lacks patience and "thinks they have learned the lesson without reading the book."
Research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a survey conducted by Lemon Law Experts which found that the typical American with car buying regrets believes they overspent by nearly $5,000 on their most recent car. It also found that car buyers often regret everything from the technology they wish their latest car had to the color they picked, and that any and all regrets have them thinking they will sell their car sooner than they expected when they purchased it.
In the Market Call, Garvin Jabusch, chief investment officer at Green Alpha Advisors, is talking stocks, and discussing "strategic resilience" as an investment thesis and factor that helps to identify companies with long-term stability amid fast-changing industries.
Economist Lawrence Kotlikoff, a professor at Boston University and the founder of Maxifi, says that "irrational exuberance" is something that routinely returns to the market, which is why so many crises over history get labeled with the word "panic," and while he does not see current conditions leading to that yet, he does think the market and economy have significantly more downside risk than upside potential right now. Kotlikoff, a prolific author on the markets and economy, says investors should be taking advantage of high real returns on inflation-protected bonds and less interested in a stock market that feels like it is building a bubble. He also discusses the future of Social Security, which he has researched extensively, and says it needs a complete overhaul, because the math on short-term fixes gets ugly for individual Americans fast.
In an extended Money Life Market Call, Tom Plumb, portfolio manager for The Plumb Funds — Plumb Equity and Plumb Balanced — discusses finding "disruptive growth companies," and notes that while everyone wants to assume that all artificial-intelligence related stocks are "disruptive," the reality of who will be the ultimate winners and losers amid the new technology is less clear than the market currently makes it out to be.
David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, puts some big-name soon-to-IPO artificial-intelligence companies in The Danger Zone this week, saying he has concerns about what they are paying for inputs compared to foreign competitors, and noting that cost disadvantages will multiply and worsen the more A.I. becomes a commodity that everyone uses. He says this is part of every industrial revolution cycle, and often becomes a big determinant in which early players survive and thrive.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses today's launch of single-stock futures by the CME Group, noting that they are more a gamble than an investment and saying he never would have used them for ordinary consumers during his days as a financial planner. Where the herd is moving towards these instruments and being scared out of some A.I. companies based on the market's capital-spending concerns, Marolia says most of those market fears have been overblown, and that a careful long-term investor will find buying opportunities amid the near daily wreckage. Plus, he discusses how high electric bills — jacked up by a heat wave that has caused high usage but also by energy concerns — are the extra cost consumers are not talking about while they are busy complaining about gas prices.
Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors, discusses their latest sentiment survey results, which showed a striking drop in optimism, with bullish sentiment levels dropping by more than 15 percentage points last week as the war in Iran started heating up again. Bullish sentiment was well below its historical averages for the third time in the last four weeks, while bearish sentiment reached levels Rotblut characterized as "unusually high." Bearish sentiment has been above its historical averages for nearly 6 months straight.
Martha Moore discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey out today from the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that confidence in the economy has improved but the caution level remains high. Moore, the chief economist for the American Chemistry Council, noted that for the fifth time in the last six quarters, the number of economists predicting lower forward profits was bigger than those expecting higher earnings, but she also said that more than one third of the economists are expecting higher capital expenditures over the next quarter, spending that will boost the economy in the face of mixed results on profitability.
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs, says that while the Iran War got the headlines, trade negotiations will be the story that carries the market forward for the rest of the year, provided there are no policy stumbles. He says the market has calmed down around Fed policy and while midterm elections tend to make for tough markets, there have been strongly positive results after midterms when a unified power structure — the President, Senate and Congress all being on one side of the political aisle — transitions to a divided leadership. Helfstein has plenty of reasons for optimism, noting all of the ways the market and economy have powered through trouble, and says that he expects slower earnings growth but better profitability from the market moving into next year, and he notes that better profitability leads to higher multiples, a healthy economy and higher level for the stock market.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, dug into data from his firm's quarterly outlook presentation to show that while business-development companies faced a lot of headline and interest-rate risk and were beaten up in the market recently, they are poised to rebound sharply in the second half of the year, particularly as the Federal Reserve provides more clarity on what's next for interest rates. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, noted that closed-end funds had a strong quarter b ut that the gains came more from rising prices than from narrowing discounts, a sign that good things could be ahead if market sentiment gets stronger.
Allison Hadley discusses PartnerCentric's 2026 Buy Now, Pay Later survey, which showed that payment programs are a big way that consumers are dealing with higher inflation and lower affordability. The survey showed that use of BNPL programs is up 20% year over year, but the typical buy now, pay later transaction amount has gotten smaller, which Hadley says is a sign that people are increasingly turning to payment programs for ordinary, everyday purchases.
Chris Retzler, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds, says that the stock market is benefitting from an artificial-intelligence powered industrial revolution "that we haven't seen the likes of in a very long time," but he says that this will not end the way the Internet bubble did because the players have strong balance sheets and prospects. Retzler thinks there is a strong fundamental story that can lead the market higher from here, and that the small-cap rally that has powered recent gains is a long-term shift that should bring smaller companies back to their traditional role of providing a higher-risk, higher-reward investment option. He worries about the potential impact of inflation and the timing and magnitude of any interest rate hikes, but he says the base case is for current conditions to remain in place and largely unchanged for several months.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes JPMorgan Core Plus Bond his ETF of the Week, noting that the fund has seen strong inflows to match its recent strong performance, citing low fees for active management and a yield of roughly 5% as other key factors to consider.
Plus, Stanford University professor Tina Seelig discusses her book "What I Wish I Knew About Luck: A Crash Course on Turning Aspirations into Achievements," noting the significant difference between having good fortune and true good luck, and how individuals can make their own luck, often through small habits that amount to little more than common courtesy and good manners.
Credit expert Gerri Detweiler discusses a trend where card issuers have been re-assessing risk and reducing the credit limits for consumers — even those with good credit scores — and why those moves are a symptom of the economy and the appetite for risk, rather than a reflection of you and your financial habits. Detweiler — who recently wrote about this issue for CardRates.com — says that limit cuts don't just reduce financing options, but it can impact credit scores and drop them, even if the consumer is not considered high-risk. Consumers get notices about limit cuts, but Detweiler says they are often missed; she discusses the moves consumers can make to avoid, forestall or minimize the issue, and how best to handle the situation.
Carrie Joy Grimes, founder of WorkMoney, discusses her new book, "The Joy of Money: How to Do More With and Feel Better About Your Money - No Matter How Much You Have," and how people confuse the math of money and the number they need to reach, rather than recognizing that it's how they feel about the money, choices and financial security that determine if they feel truly wealthy. She notes that most people struggle to get out of their own way when it comes to finances, blocking their own path to happiness because they are judging it on the scale of neighbors or riches, rather than on the quality of life and the control they have over their choices.
Plus, Chuck talks about his long-time habit of writing down the reasons why he is buying an investment before making a purchase, and what he was thinking when he reviewed some of that paperwork during a recent clean-out of some files. It's a reminder that investments can do their job but that doesn't always make them right when your needs and time horizons change, and then how you decide whether to stay the course or change things up.
Personal finance journalist Brian O'Connor discusses his recent New York Times article "You're About to Retire. What Are You Doing for the Next 20 or 30 Years?" and explores how retirement planning is pivoting from a focus on the numbers to an emphasis on the lifestyle you want, noting that too many people miss out by putting the math first. O'Connor discusses how and why financial planning has changed, noting that previous generations were so focused on taking over responsibility for their retirement savings as pensions were phased out that they didn't consider what retirement meant beyond having no active paycheck.
Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses a survey she did for American Home Shield looking at cost-of-living concerns for homeowners, which found that nearly half are primarily "enjoying their mortgage" this summer, cutting back on travel and socializing to deal with rising costs for gas, groceries and electricity. More than half of the homeowners surveyed worry that inflation is ruining their summer.
Plus, in The Book Interview, Jack Schwager discusses his recent addition to his long-running "Market Wizards" series, discussing "Market Wizards: The Next Generation: The World's Top Young Traders Reveal How They Beat The Market."
Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at The Hamrick Brief, says that the current affordability crisis has the potential to trigger a recession, if it gets to where there's a slowdown in spending that spills over to impact employment levels. That said, Hamrick says current conditions aren't yet deserving of the label of "economic crisis," even if it feels that way for some individuals and households, effectively the bottom portion of the k-shaped recovery. Still, Hamrick says the remarkable facet of the U.S. economy is that it has been able to avoid recession for this long.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says "Mr. Market is a manic depressive," and is showing those tendencies by getting so excited by positive guidance and potential that the reaction to strong earnings reports has been horrible stock action. He expects that to potentially continue this week, when the focus of earnings season shifts to A.I.-driven companies like Alphabet, Intel and Tesla. Marolia says the market's earnings swings have contributed to an ongoing downturn for tech stocks, though he believes it's more of a buying opportunity than the start of a correction. Plus, with June's inflation reading being partly positive (better than May) mixed with negative (worse than when conflict started with Iran), "Captain Inflation" gives his take on how to best read and cope with the numbers.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that while fans may believe Jersey Mike's is "a sub above," the company's initial public offering is a deal from below. While the IPO's launch date hasn't been determined, Trainer says the expected $12 billion valuation is at least double what he thinks the numbers justify, and that the deal — particularly at that level — mostly benefits the private-equity firm that took control of Jersey Mike's in 2025.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist for Annex Wealth Management, says there are signs of a broad-based economic expansion, which gives him a "fairly constructive outlook for the economy over the next six to 12 months," though he is concerned about policy shocks that could unsettle things. Jacobsen warns that investors should not be too excited about situations where the general feeling is "It could have been worse," such as recent inflation numbers or the impact of the war in Iran, but they should take some positivity from the Federal Reserve and its new chairman Kevin Warsh, who Jacobsen says doesn't really want "to pump the brakes on this economy" any time soon.
Scott Brown, chief strategist at Brown Technical Insights, says that the stock market just lived through the best second quarter ever for a midterm election year, which is a bullish sign for the rest of the year and getting through the standard troubles that come in midterm years. Brown says there is upside potential "but you want to be careful about where you are looking for it," warning that semiconductor names are correcting and that there is more downside risk there. Instead, he is looking at industrials, health care and financials as areas with positive potential.
In The NAVigator, Ray DiBernardo, portfolio manager for the XAI Madison Equity Premium Income fund, says the stock market's high valuation levels have increased downside risk, making it that nervous investors should consider covered-call strategies, which trade some of the market's potential upside for downside protection. For nervous investors, DiBernardo says the options strategy acts like portfolio insurance, but that it is particularly attractive in the closed-end fund wrapper where covered-call funds generally are at a discount with the market near highs; that discount helps to make up for the upside potential investors surrender when choosing the strategy.
In the Market Call, Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund, talks about absolute-value investing, noting that "nothing in the tech sector really is cheap" on an absolute basis, which has him looking more towards consumer staples and other areas that he says are trading at a discount. he also discusses the important of not just buying stocks on the cheap but having a potential catalyst to unlock that value.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research says investors should "be prepared for some additional volatility" at least until and through the midterm elections, but he thinks it represents "a reason to buy, not to bail." Stovall says that he's looking for solid double-digit earnings growth into 2027, and he makes the case that the technology sector has been driving the market higher but remains trading at a relative discount in price/earnings ratio. Traditional summer market doldrums, therefore, set up chances to profit from a rally he expects once the voting is done. Further, he points to the market's expanded breadth which, when combined with a positive first half of the year, historically is a sign that the market will rise over the rest of the year. Stovall's big worry for the economy and market involves the Federal Reserve and the potential for higher rates to lead to stagflation and other condition changes, but he's not expecting the Fed to move rates this year, so he thinks those worries are further into the future.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, has focused a lot of his recent ETF of the Week picks on actively managed funds, but today he goes with a hot fund based on a technology-heavy index as something that would work well for investors who expect the market's uptrend to continue.
In the Market Call, Manny Weintraub, principal at Cannell & Spears, talks about how he finds "super great stocks that are not going to kill you" and whether stocks in the hottest sectors are being set up to murder investors when market conditions and sentiments change.
Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, says that the market has a "Janet Jackson - What Have You Done for Me Lately" attitude, which has made earnings cycles particularly volatile, and he thinks that will be amplified with the earnings on tap right now powering market moves, especially around market misses. While he believes earnings will be strong, he warns in the Market Call that "prices may not follow them," particularly as the market enters its slowest time of the year around a mid-term election cycle. Woods says that the stock market has seen a healthy rotation, but he expects a pullback before a year-end rally; in the meantime, he warns against chasing rallies.
Adam Mead of Mead Capital Management and Watchlist Investing — author of "The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway" — talks about the evolution of legendary investors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, how the company they ran is changing with Buffett's retirement and the legacy they will; have in the decades ahead. The new edition of the book was inspired after Mead saw Buffett at Berkshire's annual meeting after the nonagenarian announced his retirement.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about hiring a financial adviser and whether working with the brand-name firm that has renewed its nationwide advertising blitz on television would be all that it's cracked up to be. (Spoiler alert: Not exactly.)
Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician at TheoTrade — where he runs the Genesis Cog and Burn Signal platforms — says the stock market remains "ridiculously strong," but that won't allow it to sidestep a summer slowdown and a difficult fall, before picking back up with a tremendous rally near the end of the year. He makes it clear that current conditions are not looking like a bear market or a bubble, and while the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself, he's thinking it's mostly choppy with maybe a small setback before it starts the next leg up.
David Leiter, who runs The Ultimate Investor website, discusses his new book, "Stop Making Stupid Investments," and gives his take on everything from initial public offerings — and pre-IPO investments — to cryptocurrency and more, and focuses on the emotional control that helps investors avoid the key blunders that can bring a portfolio crashing down.
In the Market Call, Max Wasserman, co-founder and senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital, talks about how everyone is jumping so hard into technology stocks that it's "hard to find a great company at a good price." He discusses where he is finding the right valuations for his dividend-driven investment style, and what kinds of companies fit his long-term buying perspective now.
Andy Stewart, co-chief executive officer at Argosy Real Estate Partners, says that housing affordability issues that have made headlines are real and persistent, but there are some solutions over time, coming from building smaller homes, changes in interest rates and in public policies like the new affordability legislation that became law on Friday. It also means there are big opportunities in the single-family build-to-rent market and more, and those opportunities should be persistent and long-term. Stewart also talks about issues in data center construction — and whether the opportunity is moving too fast — and the continuing evolution of commercial real estate, where he sees "a generational buying opportunity" for patient, long-term investors.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says the record domestic IPO for SK Hynix last week and ASML Holdings on Wednesday, should remind investors to balance big numbers with appropriate caution, because the profit potential comes with white-hot volatility. He also looks at how financial and banking stocks could be in for a rough earnings cycle when they start reporting results this week, with their numbers reflecting how right or wrong they were in anticipating how the Federal Reserve and new chairman Kevin Warsh would respond to economic conditions. Plus, he also looks at housing affordability and how new legislation may impact the picture.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, looks at current earnings trends and sees some ugly misses coming during the second quarter, not because companies are sandbagging earnings expectations, but because they're not as solid as the Street believes. He says a number of those stocks — and he singled out Fidelity National Information Services — are headed for trouble when the street figures things out after seeing an earnings miss.
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says the stock market is building towards "one of the biggest or largest bear markets of our generation," but he says that decline will impact passive, broad-index investors the most. "We see a true long-term, 12- to 18-month, 45 to 50 downturn, and that's in the S&P if you look at the Nasdaq, you could really see some losses that are in excess of 70 percent," Jonson said. He's worried about a "bear market waterfall" — where every decline is not met with a quick return back to new highs — that makes it emotionally difficult for investors to buy into dips, but he does say that being patient and strategic should allow investors to find pockets of opportunity amid the decline, positioning them to profit when the pendulum swings back to the upside.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, discusses Saba Capital's activist campaign that recently saw him booted as portfolio manager for ASA Gold and Precious Metals Ltd., a closed-end fund that was up nearly 200% last year and that was at the top of its peer group since Merk took it over in 2016. Still, the activist shareholders labeled it a poor performer, and are working now to capture the fund's discount. Meanwhile, Saba has installed new leadership which Merk says has no experience running a gold fund. He filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and made other efforts to save the fund, but acknowledges that a change in status is unlikely. Merk also discusses his outlook for gold in the interview.
Adam Gebler, head of wealth for the Americas at FTSE Russell, discusses the firm's 2026 U.S. Wealth Pulse Survey, which showed that private markets — both equity and credit — are continuing to move into the mainstream with affluent investors, driven largely by financial advisers pushing for their adoption and acceptance in portfolios.
Kristen VanGelder, co-chief investment officer at Evanston Capital — a firm that manages hedge funds built out of hedge funds — says that sophisticated money managers have very different sentiments about current market conditions than Main Street investors, noting that where average investors are showing lousy sentiment numbers, sharpies are leaning into the market's increasing "dispersion" and the ability to play one thing against the next to turn volatility into profits. She says that global macro investors "have the glimmer in their eye," because the pressure of war and a complicated global inflationary picture are creating opportunities beyond what investors can fund sticking with fundamental investing domestically.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes away from his long-running trend of focusing on actively managed ETFs and turns to a new Vanguard high-yield corporate bond index fund as his "ETF of the Week," noting that the ultra-low fees on the fund and the outperformance of the index make it something to consider now.
In the Market Call, Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager for Globalt Investments, discusses his earnings-driven investment style and what to make of the volatile market reactions around perceived "sand-bagging," where companies meet profit projections but the Street doesn't think expectations were set high enough.
Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says a resilient economy is producing "shocking numbers for a mid-cycle economy," powering through problems in a way that puts the Federal Reserve on hold, avoiding interest rate hikes this year and returning to a bias towards cutting in 2027. Freund thinks that it's "back to the future" for the Fed, with new chairman Kevin Warsh bringing the central bank to where less information and guidance makes for more policy flexibility, even if it results in some additional volatility since the policy path will be less well-defined. Freund says the chances of recession in the next year are low, but that investors have to remain cognizant that "every mountain has two sides and, at some point, the string of good years can't go on forever."
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, returns to the show a day after his Big Interview appearance to discuss his new book, "Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market." He discusses what he expects the future to look like and why the bull market can continue almost indefinitely but why investors may not want to focus entirely on domestic investments in the future.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about the cheap, small-dollar life-insurance policies advertised regularly on television and whether seniors are better off going for the convenience of those policies or looking for other ways to protect their families.
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that large-cap domestic stocks have done so well that it has masked the rise of the rest of the investment ecosystem, but now that he expects recent good times to be balanced out by tougher stretches ahead for the Standard & Poor's 500, investors will want to take advantage of small-cap stocks, foreign stocks and more. That's good preparation for bear markets, and Faber makes it clear that downturns are a feature of the market, something that will come around again. Faber — who will return to Wednesday's show to discuss his new book, "Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market" — says the trend remains "all signs green" for the market currently, but he says investors should be watching for change.
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research, says that the best environment for the stock market isn't falling rates, but rather rates that aren't moving. That positions the stock market to be in a "boring" and "quiet" environment where it can keep riding technicals which Delwiche describes as being "in pretty good shape" right now, with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 above their long-term moving averages and more stocks making new highs than are making new lows. Those patterns are creating "strength beneath the surface" that he says can power the market higher.
David Miller, co-founder of Catalyst Mutual Funds talks about insider buying as an indicator of corporate strength, monopoly and oligopoly positions as a way to play developing technologies and more in a wide-ranging Money Life Market Call.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, he expects that the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates will be a cut, but says it won't happen until 2027, which he described as a one-year delay for the central bank to get back to more neutral levels. Gruenwald says it's a "hawkish hold," with the Fed being prepared to raise rates but hoping to hold off. Gruenwald says that effort is helped by the economy's resilience, driven by business investment and the wealth effect created by the market's return to record levels, which have put a floor on economic growth, allowing the economy to overcome a handful of economic and policy shocks — including the Iran War — in recent years. That's why he recently cut his expectations on recession, cutting the chance of an economic downturn from 33% down to 20%.
Vijay Marolia spent the holiday weekend celebrating the holiday and more, and while he says his invitation to the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding extravaganza was lost in the mail, he isn't losing the chance to look at the wild spending on the party and to equate it to what more ordinary folks should do, namely learning how to size their spending so they can live well, while limiting financial regrets. Marolia, the chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, also digs into Amazon and Tesla stock in "The Week That Is," noting that each company had something to celebrate that — when viewed under his five-lens approach to stock selection — will make investors want to have a party in their portfolio.
Plus, Chuck answers a recent spate of questions about how the show itself works, and gives a behind-the-scenes look at guest selection, interview editing and more.
Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton, says there is still more upside to the market, based on earnings growth, noting that the economy and stock market have been resilient due to the "phenomenal" profits companies have been generating. Dover notes that the market is fully valued, but not expensive; "We think earnings this next year could be [up] 15 to 20 percent, so the market could follow that without being more expensive." Dover, who is also the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, notes that the earnings growth has been greatest among small caps, which is why he is leaning in that direction, and he advocates for fixed income as ballast for portfolios now; ;he had previously lightened up on the Magnificent Seven and other market leaders, and he says that the market has relaxed on those stocks, which may create targeted buying opportunities.
Kevin Dreyer, co-chief investment officer for value at Gabelli Asset Management — part of the team running Gabelli Equity Trust and other closed-end funds — discusses how he is finding value looking for names that are "differentiated and not highly correlated" to the stocks that have been leading the market's return to record levels. Specifically, Dreyer says he is looking for businesses that are "A.I. resilient" and able to withstand and/or benefit from the development of artificial intelligence. One area he cited as particularly attractive is sports and entertainment, because " You can't have an algorithm or chatbot replicate the New York Knicks … but you and I can go out and buy MSGS, which owns the Knicks."
Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a trending part of the market and makes an actively managed Fidelity small- and mid-cap fund his pick for "ETF of the Week."
Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says the stock market is going through a shift where small-cap companies are coming to the fore, businesses that are adjacent to artificial intelligence or that will benefit from using it are starting to get an A.I. boost and the warning signs feel mostly like distant storm clouds. Stringfellow says he doesn't see signs of recession, worries slightly about a market overheating if interest rates rise, but he thinks signs that more and more companies are showing earnings growth reducing a lot of potential downward pressure on the market.
Ben Carlson, director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management, discusses his new book, "Risk and Reward: How to handle market volatility and build long-term wealth," and how he thinks investors can't simply tune everything out -- even if that might be the best long-term results -- because they have a "firehose of information" in their pockets. He discusses how to best filter that information to make it useful without becoming overwhelming.
Meredith Mangan, senior editor at Credible, discusses the site's survey on prediction markets, which showed that 1 in 4 Americans already have made a wager on a prediction-market site. In a wide-ranging study looking at investor habits, she noted that more than 60% of Americans see prediction markets as betting, while just under 30% see them as a viable financial tool.
Sameer Samana, head of equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that as long as the market keeps making higher highs and lows, investors should use technical indicators as a North Star to stay in the game and ride the market higher. Samana says the market's move to record levels says that broader economy is strong enough to keep the market rolling with a "turbo-boost" from artificial intelligence on top of it providing faster growth, though he does worry about the economy overheating and needing to step back. He says the most likely scenario is for the market to "take a breather" between now and midterm elections, but "starting in November, you'll start the next leg of the bull market and it would not surprise me if that one runs well into end of next year."
Kevin Roth, managing director of research for the CFB Board of Standards, discusses the group's recent survey on Americans and financial fraud which found that most people have faced some rip-off attempts, but almost no one discusses it with families or reports it to authorities. Some 55% of Americans expect fraudsters to target them or someone close to them in the next 12 months, but less than 40% are confident they would catch every type of fraud they might face and avoid being ripped off.
Plus, Josh Stevens, chief investment officer at CresAlta Investment Management — which in May launched CresAlta Global Dividend and CresAlta Small and Mid-Cap, ETFs based around high-conviction growth strategies — talks stock investing now in the Market Call.
Daniel Morris, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says that his primary concern right now is the risk that the economy could overheat, thanks to above-trend growth and inflation that could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in an effort to slow things down. If that fails to cool inflation, the economy could then struggle and the market could step far away from its current uptrend. Morris' base case, however, is for continued earnings growth that can power the market into 2028, noting that while growth will slow down, there is still plenty of room to keep going and not have the economy resemble past bubble times.
In The Book Interview, Chad Bown, co-author of "'How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy," discusses how there are reasons and ways for trade-war scenarios to play out well, and the trade-offs today's leaders would have to make for current trade tensions to pass without plunging the global economy into a deep funk.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why he will continue to ride with Micro Technology, even as it reports growth numbers that are hard to believe, nt notes that he is giving Nike the boot, especially when he compares it to another popular rival in the public eye during the World Cup, adidas. Plus, he worries about how artificial intelligence may make inflation stickier for longer.
Veteran analyst Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says the market right now is showing swings and moves that are reminiscent of the Internet bubble days of 2000. While that doesn't mean the market is headed for the same result, he says it creates more challenges for traders and investors, in part because they are trying to read the market off of wild swings and fast reversals. "It's definitely a very bifurcated market," Zanger says in discussing the tech and artificial-intelligence companies compared with everything else. "It needs Prozac, that's for sure."
We go Off The News with Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, examining the new student-loan repayment assistance plan and changes in student-loan lending limits, both of which go into effect on July 1. Farrington says these changes will help students and parents with the personal finances around college education, helping them focus on the value of the degree, noting that the loan limits are a "stop sign," where the government is suggesting that when someone takes on more debt, they are running much higher risk of not earning back the money they put into getting their degree. He notes that this is particularly important with master's degrees, where many grad students pay up for a diploma that doesn't repay their investment in the extra training.
With private credit being an increasingly popular part of investment strategies these days, John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — attended the Private Credit Summit hosted this week in New York City by Dechert LLP, and came away with a sense that private-credit markets have not yet gotten to the overheated levels that could turn investor fears of a blow-up into a financial reality. Scott discusses how big business development companies passed "stress tests" designed to show if they would break under severe market conditions, how insurance companies making investments into private credit are raising underwriting standards and thereby reducing the risk in private credit markets and more.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says he has pulled back slightly on equity exposure but gone deeper into a diversified approach because the market has been crazy, driven by investors' fear of missing out, sky-high expectations and more, to the point where the key is to participate and not be wrong because you are taking chances on what amounts to a wild guess. If Folts had to guess, he'd expect the stock market to have a bumpy ride in the second half of the year, finishing roughly flat from current levels.
Michael Monaghan, founder and portfolio manager of the Founder ETFs makes his debut in the Market Call, talking about his firm's methodology, which focuses on companies where the original founder remains in the driver seat. Research shows that founder-led companies tend to outperform for several reasons, notably that the entrepreneurs behind them have a long-term vision and are not swayed by short-term market noise or pressured to produce a quarterly profit. Monaghan, who runs the Founders 100 ETF, discusses how founder-CEOs influence giants like Nvidia and Meta Platforms and how a portfolio of these stocks can expect more stable long-term performance.
In the ETF of the Week segment, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, focuses on a value fund from T. Rowe Price that just hit its third anniversary, gaining roughly 30 percent over the last 12 months
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that "there is so much short-attention-span money driving the market right now ... looking for the shiny new object," that investors want to diversify throughout artificial intelligence businesses, taking profits and rebalancing especially when specific stocks go parabolic, to capture profits and avoid some of the volatility being created by enormous expectation levels. Sonders says that an "aggregate recession" remains "a ways away," but she notes that there have been rolling recessions, with services weaking currently, coming off a manufacturing decline earlier in the year. As a result, she suggests considering sectors that could be in line for pullbacks rather than expecting a credit crunch or a mistake by regulators to create a broad-based decline.
Justin Baer discusses his new book, "House of Fidelity: The Rise of the Johnson Dynasty and the Company That Changed American Investing," and digs into some of the details that turned the notoriously secretive and private company from a firm for Boston elites into a the investing powerhouse whose accounts and funds touch the lives of one in five American adults.
Niki Glen, Northwestern Mutual wealth management advisor discusses the latest data from Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress Study, which showed that true financial independence remains beyond the grasp of many Americans. One in five U.S. adults believes they will never achieve financial independence, which is borne out in survey results showing that more than 40 percent of adults — including a surprisingly high percentage of Baby Boomers, who are all at or beyond retirement age — continue to rely on their parents for financial support. More than half of Millennials (who range between 30 and 45 years old) were still dependent on financial help from their family.
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says the market is "overshooting" in expecting considerable rate hikes soon. He thinks the central bank will be patient, and that the Kevin Warsh regime got off to its intended start last week by giving less guidance and accepting more volatility as a result. He suggests that investors should look to capture the current "uncertainty premium" that has been created by a wide dispersion of opinion — with some major players expecting rate hikes while others are calling for renewed cuts — and that will boost intermediate-term yields at least until the rate picture becomes clearer.
Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that the McClellan Oscillator — the indicator created by the family firm to measure market breadth — "is seeing dead nothing," hovering around the neutral level, suggesting that the market "is in pretty much of a doldrums." He expects to see a seasonal summer decline, especially in a midterm election year, but it's not happening yet, which is why McClellan says there's not likely to be much trend until late October. He sees "a boring market" for the rest of the year but expects 2027 to be strongly positive, barring mistakes from the Federal Reserve.
Author Igor Pejic discusses his new book, "Tech Money: A Guide to the New Game of Technology Investing," out today, noting the places where technology investing has changed and how different current times are from the last technology wave, the Internet boom, that drove the market into bubble times.
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says the stock market right now is "technology against the world," and he expects that it will turn and correct, but he's not willing to put his portfolio on the line and move early, because it would put him in the path of a speeding "freight train." de Kempenaer says he can "hear what the bears are saying," and doesn't necessarily disagree with them, but he says he needs to see more signs of weakness -- like the market starting to favor defensive sectors even as it is rising -- to suggest that a downturn is near.
Yalena Maleyev, senior economist at KPMG Economics – a member of the Outlook Survey Committee for the National Association for Business Economics – discusses the June 2026 NABE Outlook Survey, released today, which had the economists calling for lower and slower economic growth, higher inflation and a longer time before the Federal Reserve eases interest rates. The median expectation for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.6% for the fourth quarter. Despite those worrisome economic numbers, nearly two-thirds of the economists surveyed expect that the U.S. can forestall a recession until 2028 or later.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses Kevin Warsh's debut as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, which included a hawkish stance, no dot plot or forecasting help, and a terse public statement. He also discusses the news that Charles Schwab Corp. is planning to enter prediction markets, which he says could speed up both public acceptance and regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, and he gives his take on why the housing affordability problem is worse right now than it generally gets credit for.
Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the State Street S&P Kensho Final Frontiers ETF in the Danger Zone, noting that while the fund gets a five-star rating from Morningstar, it is filled with stocks "that are losing money hand over fist, all going after a very trendy topic ... which is hard to quantify," a condition that he says reminds him of the Internet bubble days.
Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that the current stock market has been driven to record highs on the back of strong earnings that have overpowered economic concerns, but he notes that the stock market bubble that inflated during the Internet boom of the late 1990s grew on the backs of companies with no real earnings. As a result, with IPOs like SpaceX dominating the headlines, Miskin is preaching caution, noting that these attention-grabbing stocks are coming public without profits. Miskin says that's a rising risk, but that inflation is less of a risk than it was just a few months ago, and he believes there may be pockets of downturn or slowdown, but that should push investors to diversify, rather than to overhaul a portfolio or back away from equities.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a free-cash flow factor fund that has a stellar track record and that will celebrate its third birthday next week for his ETF of the Week. The birthday is important because it makes the fund eligible for ratings that will signal its stellar performance even more strongly to investors.
Ken Burdon, partner in the registered fund practice at Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett, discusses a recent Supreme Court ruling that's a game-changer for activist investors in closed-end funds. Critics of activism have long held that professional arbitrageurs used federal courts to pressure closed-end funds into deals that benefit activists' at the expense of the long-term objectives of ordinary shareholders. Burdon says the decision doesn't stop the activists from pursuing cases but removes a key path that activists took to pursue their actions much more quickly and easily.
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, entered the year expecting the stock market to be down in 2026, and while stocks have overcome the gravity he saw weighing it down, he thinks there is trouble on the horizon. "We've become very detached from basic fundamentals and very much focused on ... betting the longshot, that it's going to come in," Sosnick says in today's Big Interview. "Either we reach an extreme level and grow into it ... or we overshoot the target and have to correct a bit and I hope it's nothing worse than a garden-variety correction."
Catherine Yoshimoto, director of product management for the Russell U.S. Indexes at FTSE Russell, discusses the 2026 semi-annual Russell U.S. Indexes Reconstitution, which is underway now and concludes on June 26. The process — which resets the index but also defines the size it takes for a stock to be large-, small- or micro-cap is-resetting the bar for large-cap investments at roughly $5.7 billion. That's up nearly 25% from a year ago, reflecting huge gains for the Magnificent Seven stocks (up nearly 50% in size from a year ago) but also broad-based growth across market segments.
In the Market Call, Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors, talks about using ETFs to play defense, leaning into precious metals and commodities and other areas to protect against downside risk that she expects will materialize when the market starts to lose its momentum.
Chris Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors discusses how every technological revolution — dating back to the days of the printing press but extending to the artificial-intelligence boom bow — goes through the cycle of "Amara's Law," in which the effects of a technology are overestimated in the short run but underestimated over the long term. As a result, Davis says investors are putting too much into the hype phase around AI, without looking at the long-term picture. Davis, in The Big Interview, echoes his recent paper on "Investing in the A.I. Age," which suggests that companies will fall into five categories: "emerging winners, enablers, users, insulated businesses and the walking dead," and talks about how investors can navigate the changing market and avoid the pitfalls of the latest technological evolution.
Davis is not the only value manager discussing the current market on today's show. In the Market Call, John Dorfman — a long-time classic value manager and the chairman of Dorfman Value Investments — gives his take on how current conditions have created some changes to the investment processes that have defined his career, noting that they are subtle but substantive in delivering better returns than many investors expect the value style to deliver in a growth-dominated market.
In today's "Talking Technicals" segment, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the stock market is poised for more gains and new highs, and that investors should "hold on and ride the trend higher for sure." Fox discusses technical measures based around long-term trends, and he sees the Standard & Poor's 500 suprassing 10,000 and the Nasdaq 100 45,000 in "around two years." While he does see garden-variety corrections occuring in that time frame, Fox set S&P 7,000 as a key support level, noting it is possible there's a setback that low, even as the overall trend is upward.
Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist for Man Group, says the market is entering a "greater discernment phase," where companies have been priced for massive growth and "incredibly high standards," setting up potential disappointment as investors become more picky while the AI revolution plays out. Hooper says this is a natural progression, one that investors saw during the Internet boom, as it started to fade. "I don't consider it a bubble," Hooper says, "but I do think that there is a timer that's ticking. Many investors are expecting to see monetization sooner rather than later; we don't know how much time they will give some of these companies." Hooper says the market's strong start to this year has lowered her expectations for the rest of the year, making her more pessimistic, raising the possibility of a technical recession — two quarters of negative GDP growth — as the economy works through its issues.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that the record-breaking initial-public offering of SpaceX didn't change his mind about owning the stock, and in fact raised more issues about whether the hype around the company's "total addressable market" is real. He also discussed whether 2026 — with Anthropic and OpenAI also set for huge stock launches — is the "Year of the IPO," warning it may be more a time when venture capitalists are cashing out. Plus, he examines an alarming statistic about planned capital expenditures as a percentage of incoming revenues for the hyperscalers, a level currently set so high it's reminiscent of the end of the Internet boom.
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, revisits Cava Group, which was first in The Danger Zone before its IPO in June of 2023. The stock is up about 100% since last November, but Guske says that just raises the potential for it to crater, again (it lost half of its value late last year), which is why it's back in the Danger Zone now.
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that the current economic cycle is in "overtime," a point where the stock market gets narrow. As the cycle ends, however, he expects the market to broaden out, which could carry it higher, just driven by small-cap stocks and other industries. As a result, he says investors should stick to their plans and not let their portfolios get too focused on what has worked lately. "This is where, if you are an individual investor, your job is to get from Point A to Point B to Point C in your life. The way that you do that is that you don't concentrate, which can win magnificently and lose magnificently, and if you lose magnificently, you're not going to get back on track."
In the "Talking Technicals" interview, Thomas Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says the technical underpinnings of the market are solid — though he also took notice of the narrow bands of strength — and sufficient to avoid deterioration into a bear market while the market focuses on the earnings story. "We're pushing $400 a share for earnings next year for the [Standard & Poor's] 500," Samuelson said. "If it trades at 23 times (earnings), you could get up to 9,000. That's 24% higher from here."
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, says that index discounts in municipal bonds and taxable bonds are wide compared to their three-year history, which is creating good opportunities for investors to find closed-end funds trading at wide discounts but supported by improving fundamentals. Scott, who also is chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, uses his firm's "trifecta analysis" to select four funds as exemplars of the opportunities available to income investors now.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that the stock market "continues to price in that the Iran conflict is going to be over [soon]," which has kept the focus on blockbuster earnings numbers, which have been so strong that they have overcome virtually all economic and stock market concerns. He expects that earnings trend to continue, powering the market through some summer doldrums to where it finishes the year on a positive note. "Stocks don't go up short-term always with earnings but, long-term, earnings are the fuel that sends stocks higher," Stone says; with the earnings trend in place, he says long-term investors should be less concerned about worrisome headlines about inflation, war and more.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at the Procure Space ETF (ticker: UFO) as his "ETF of the Week," noting how the fund has been a rocket ship this year, and that it will be worth watching as the SpaceX IPO launches this week and markets adjust to having that big-name stock joining the space-race sector.
In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., discusses the benefits of companies that pay growing dividends and that have an A-rated balance sheet.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that she is expecting the market to suffer some late summer doldrums as seasonal economic impacts end and mid-term elections put their traditional damper on enthusiasm, but that there will be some support for the market near year's end, making for "a positive year, but nothing like we've seen in the last two years." She acknowledges that makes her forecast a bit more sour than many observers, but says she thinks the market is showing signs of rotating and broadening out, and that change will slow down stock gains. Also contributing to that will be continued economic uncertainty; Fernandez does not expect a recession, but noted that stagflation could be hard to avoid if inflation gets higher and stickier and the War in Iran continues past the end of this month.
In the Market Call, Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services — which publishes "The Best Dividend and Income Investments" newsletter — discusses the firm's analytical system, called Quadrix, for sizing up a wide range of factors, and notes that a lot of the stocks that have been leading the way have fundamentals that should allow them to keep going strong from here, regardless of the broad economic storm clouds that are making many investors nervous.
Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who thinks his strategy of trying to make his baby grandson a millionaire in 65 years is "just showing off," because "Really, how much will a million dollars be worth then?"
Jacob Pozharny, portfolio manager for the Bridgeway Global Opportunities Fund a market-neutral fund that looks at global macro factors — says that every infrastructure boom in history has led to massive capital expenditures, to the point of over-capacity, then demand destruction and a cycle that leaves users better off but hurts the companies that get caught in the mix. He cites railroads, telecommunications dot-com companies and more as examples and he says that "boring industries " will be the users of AI and the long-term winners, which will benefit small-cap and emerging-market names.
Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence Capital Management, says in the Market Call that he looks for "chokepoints of new technologies," places where consumption is creating demand imbalances that working to the long-term benefit of many of the market's biggest names
Matt Zajechowski discusses research published by Lemon Law Experts, which looked at over a million National Highway Traffic Safety Administration consumer complaints filed in the last decade and found six of the 10 worst-rated vehicles overall have been discontinued, but remain widely available on used lots. He says higher car prices are forcing more lower-income consumers to consider cars that the public dislikes.
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says 2026 has had surprising narratives but unsurprisingly solid results, and he expects that to continue, without significant recession risk or big trouble ahead. Kalish discusses often overlooked economic numbers, like a financing gap where demands to fund capital expenditures outstrip available capital and the level of real gross value added for non-financial corporations (essentially, GDP for things other than financial companies), to explain how and why this economy looks healthier than the worrywarts think it is. He does outline his concerns, but thinks the economy can overpower most or all of them in fairly short order.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that the new wave of huge initial public offerings like SpaceX and Anthropic puts index-fund investors in The Danger Zone, noting that indexes are considering changing rules to quickly accommodate the new stocks, which creates artificial demand that will further drive the prices of the stocks up. That creates potential for index investors to effectively be overpaying to get into the IPOs, and also leaves them vulnerable if the stocks fall off after the initial excitement. While the rules changes are up in the air, Trainer says the pressure to change rules and include fresh IPOs changes the landscape for the future.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses the market's message to Broadcom, which exceeded earnings expectations but failed to raise future guidance on AI-driven revenues; he says the market is punishing "sandbagging," a practice of understating expectations so that they are easy to beat, but he says the big price drop created a buying opportunity for investors. He also discussed the heightened volatility around the positive jobs report, which he says is based on the fear of a hike in interest rates that he says long-term investors should not be too worried about. Plus, he examines Bitcoin, which has lost about one-quarter of its value in less than two months, which he says is testing traders faith, but which isn't making him nervous as a long-term buy-and-holder.
Long-time technical analyst Jeff Bishop, head of Bullseye Trades, says the stock market is "priced to perfection, perfection, perfection," and while he isn't saying stocks are overvalued, they are at least fairly valued, which means the stock market here has more downside risk than upside potential. As a result, Bishop says that while he is trying to wring the last of the momentum out of the market, he has been moving into short positions and expects to soon have "the largest short position of my life." Bishop says that the current market move has been parabolic, and while he doesn't think it will end in a catastrophic event, he says the red flags are flashing warning signs that signal a 5 to 10 percent pullback over the summer, potentially getting bigger towards the fall.
In the Market Call, Roger Conrad, chief analyst at Conrad's Utility Investor, talks about how concerns over energy markets and high demand for power have created big tailwinds for utility stocks, but that the gains haven't lifted valuations to where stocks are dramatically overpriced. Conrad — who also runs the Dividends Roundtable on Substack — talks about how his methodology allows for a "dream price' and a "profit-taking price" and says that he expects heightened volatility to have him making both moves fairly regularly for the rest of the year.
Steve Baffico, executive vice president and head of listed products at Bluerock — which runs the Bluerock Private Real Estate fund — says that investors will be moving out of direct lending and private credit funds in search of HALO investments ("hard assets, low obsolescence), which will bring them to private real estate, helping to drive the sector. Bluerock's fund recently converted from an interval fund to a closed-end fund — and has raised its distribution four times in recent months — and he believes it can will soon hit its target of 8 to 8.5%. He talks about how that kind of yield is being achieved, and the three sectors the fund is focused on.
Joseph S. Moore, author of "How to Get Rich in American History: 300 Years of Financial Advice That Worked (& Didn't)," says that America is dealing with "Big Woe" (as in "Woe is me"), but that examining the past makes it clear that "The American Dream is alive and well." Moore points out that what people think is unique today has all been played out in the past, comparing cryptocurrency to the thousands of self-issued currencies that existed before the start of the Civil War, prediction markets to the "bucket shops" of the 1800s and more, but he also notes that the advice that people think "always works" has not actually proven that if you look throughout financial history. "The dynamic, changing economy we live in is evolving," he says, "so hopefully we can learn something from the past to better understand where we are in the present."
Kelley Wright, editor at Investment Quality Trends — now celebrating its 60th year, making it one of the longest-running investment newsletters — brings his dividend-with-value focus to the Market Call.
Plus, in the ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, examines a unique Treasury-focused fund as a way to ride out current rate swings while goosing yields in the ultra-safe portion of your portfolio.
Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer, ICON Advisers — manager of the ICON Equity fund, which is up more than 25% year-to-date — says the market, even at record highs, is right around fair value, meaning he doesn't see over-pricing or investor behavior typical of market peaks. As a result, so long as earnings stay strong — and he describes current earnings as being at levels of "crazy, silly growth" — the market will climb the proverbial wall of worry higher, potentially for the next few years.
Mark Boulton, portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management, says that the standard emerging-markets investment play — heavy on technology stocks and weighted to China, Korea and Taiwan — misses the point of true "emerging markets investing," which is to benefit from rising economies and countries that are seeing expansive GDP growth. Boulton, who runs the new Pictet Emerging Markets Rising Economies ETF, says Brazil, South Africa, Mexico and frontier markets like Vietnam and Kazakhstan have better growth prospects and are likely to outpace developed markets and deliver better long-term results moving forward.
Chip Lupo discusses the 2026 Household Debt Survey from WalletHub, which showed that more than half of Americans say their household is struggling with debt, and more than 2 in 5 expecting their household debt to increase in the next 12 months.a
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says it's "hard to argue" with a stock market that has returned to record high levels on the back of a 9-week winning streak for the Standard and Poor's 500. Turnquist says that kind of streak has only happened 10 times before, with the momentum leading the market higher a median return of 8 percent six months after the streak. Turnquist added a note of near-term caution, saying he will not be surprised to see some summer consolidation, particularly in the technology space, but he made it clear that he expects those temporary declines to be buying opportunities.
In The Big Interview, Ron Deutsch, head of portfolio strategy at Magnus Financial Group, discusses why investors who are scurrying for safety, wanting to reduce their fears are pursuing strategies that may come up short under the pressure of today's markets. He discusses how balancing risks may involve moving money to areas that safety-first investors think are high risk — but which the market has shown to be relatively safe — without going too far to the end of the spectrum.
Tiana Patillo, financial advisor manager at Vanguard, discusses a recent survey by the firm, which found that more than 70% of women say they are confident about saving money, yet nearly half of them acknowledged that their savings may not be keeping pace with inflation.
And speaking of inflation, Chuck answers a listener's question about whether his son's use of "buy now, pay later" programs at the gas pump makes any financial sense at all.
The big story in the week ahead is expected to be the IPO of SpaceX, and Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says this deal is ugly right from the jump, putting the new stock in The Danger Zone before it even goes public. Guske notes that SpaceX has no earnings , a negative economic book value, a share structure that leaves virtually all control with Elon Musk, and that nearly all money raised in the launch will go to pay off prior debts. When the IPO goes through, however, there will be "this massive valuation on a company that, right now, is unprofitable," and that will have to deliver huge amounts of future growth to justify the expected market price.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses SpaceX too, noting it is part of a broader IPO wave that is less about great investment opportunities and more about venture capitalists cashing out while the getting is good. In "The Week That Is," Marolia also looks at Americans' growing credit-card debt load which — unlike the soft, emotional data of consumer sentiment — shows how consumers are struggling with inflation and explains how that struggle could be the thing that trips up the economy if consumers wake up and cut spending.
In The Big Interview, Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group says that the economic growth story has "captured the hearts and minds" of investors, allowing them to keep climbing the wall of worry to get the stock market back to record highs. He says that growth picture could be changing, as artificial intelligence gets to a "prove it" phase, inflation stays higher for longer, and the impacts of War in Iran move from the potential problem of the fighting's first few days to the undeniable impacts seen only as the conflict moves past the 90-day mark.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management, says he expects inflation will top 4% during the summer, which will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, but that could dramatically increase the potential for recession because rate hikes and oil-driven inflation stocks, historically, have been a recipe for trouble. Cronk, who also serves as president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that virtually all economic and market outlooks hinge on questions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but his outlook remains positive, noting that markets have nearly eclipsed in five months Wells Fargo's forecast for the year, with solid earnings poised to drive things higher from here. In spite of the economic concerns, Cromk is optimistic that it will be "a good year when we put 2026 in the history books."
Jim Lee, founder of StratFi, says the technicals show a market that is somewhat overbought, making it due for a minor pullback of about 5 percent "in the next month or so," but says he would buy the dips because the market has the potential to deliver 20 percent gains when 2026 is done. Lee notes that he particularly likes the "HALO stocks," "heavy asset, low obsolescence" plays that tend to be old-economy dividend-payers, which have done well in 2026 and have momentum that he expects to continue, even if it takes longer than expected to resolve the war in Iran.
Plus, Gordon Hamilton, senior managing director for Kayne Anderson — portfolio manager for the Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure closed-end fund — says 'historic' oil drawdowns are setting up a major call once a peace deal is done for U.S. energy infrastructure companies to meet global demand for propane, butane, crude oil and natural gas. Coupled with an energy "supercycle" driven by artificial-intelligence needs, it has created what should be a persistent long-term opportunity for infrastructure investors.
Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg — a firm that focuses on natural resource investing — says that the war in Iran has already created "the most severe shock to energy markets in history," which he says is three times more severe in terms of barrels produced than anything seen in the 1970s, and that the situation will get markedly worse from here. Rozencwajg says that it takes about 90 days from oil to make it from the well to the consumer; it's now been about 80 days since the wells were shut off because oil couldn't be shipped, which means "We should begin to feel the physical crunch in about 10 days time." He says inventory levels have dropped precipitously, could evaporate if tensions continue and that could lead to oil priced at $150 to $200 per barrel for months, and even after the Strait or Hormuz reopens; while he thinks the economy can avoid recession in those conditions, he acknowledges it would dramatically raise recession risk.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, takies a very different take on energy and power markets, picking a classic utilities sector fund as his "ETF of the Week."
Allison Hadley discusses a study done for American Home Shield, which showed that homeowners spent an average of $3,737 on repairs in 2025, but that nearly one in five of those homeowners had to take on debt to pay for those fixes. Moreover, the survey found that 57% of the homeowners who made repairs were blindsided, meaning the cost came out of nowhere.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about indexed universal life insurance policies, a popular product among social media influencers that sounds too good to be true, and that probably is for most consumers.
Long-time personal-finance commentator Paul Merriman, founder of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation says that investors haven't taken inflation into consideration the way they have investment returns, and that has the potential to leave them "at risk of being disappointed." Merriman says that investors should "Take 2 percent off of the return for the purposes of thinking about the future, and add 2 percent to what you are thinking in terms of inflation and that would be a more realistic view of the future."
Deana Healy, vice president of financial planning and advice at Ameriprise Financial discusses the firm's recent survey report, "Flying Solo: Navigating Financial Autonomy," which found that 85 percent of financially solo adults feel confident managing their money, but the same number worry about aging alone and navigating the long-term financial decisions that come with it.
Plus Chuck answers two questions from listeners, one about whether people are hiding their spending and their financial health in order to fit in with friends and neighbors — possibly explaining the disconnect between sentiment numbers and spending statistics — and the other from an investors whose portfolio has remain unchanged for decades, and whether staying put with it continues to make sense.
Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors — overseer of the AAII Sentiment Survey — discusses the dramatic drop in bullish sentiment last week and how the big spread between bullish and bearish investors increased so dramatically that it teeters on the edge of becoming a contrary indicator. The sentiment survey has a history of showing that when emotions swing too far in one direction, the market responds by moving in the opposite direction. Still, Rotblut notes that bearish sentiment is "unusually high" and has been above its historical averages for 15 consecutive weeks.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at the wild swings in bond-market sentiment and expectations, whether consumers will keep spending in the face of flagging sentiment and higher costs and introduces us to his alter ego, "Captain Inflation," whose superhero sidekick could be Kevin "The Hawk" Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chairman who will get his first shot at addressing inflation on Thursday.
Plus, Tom Bernard discusses his new book, "The Index of America: How the S&P500 Works and Why You Should Invest In It," and how the leading market indicator will keep up and remain the flagship benchmark for long-term investors. He addresses issues like concentration, diversification, globalization and more.
Eric Stein, chief investment officer at Voya Investment Management, says that investors can expect interest rates — particularly on longer-term bonds — will keep rising, but those higher reates "will lead to lower rates because you will see a response on the demand side whether it's through the consumer or through the [capital expenditures] cycle." Stein says that if "demand destruction" doesn't slow the economy too much, recession remains avoidable, particularly in the muted economic cycles that the U.S. has been going through in recent years.
In The NAVigator segment, Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, also says that rates will be coming down, with his estimation being that it happens by the fall because "the worst is over as far as yields going up." Doty says that if oil prices stay below $110 per barrel, it's viewed as inflationary; above that level, "We have a problem, and so does the rest of the world." He says central banks will solve that problem by cutting rates to "save economies from disaster," and likes two-year TIPS, municipal bonds and high-yield corporate bonds to ride out the storm.
Plus, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com — who recently launched The Hamrick Brief on Substack to give his take on current financial events — discusses mortgage rates and inflation both reaching recent highs, the historical context of those numbers and how, why and when conditions may ease and change.
Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares — which manages a number of funds tied to China — says that President Trump's recent trip to China was viewed very differently overseas than it was in America. In China, the trip was viewed very positively for establishing trade boards, improving communications and laying a foundation for future negotiations.
Domestically, however, the view of China has been that a tepid consumer is making the economy struggle, and that's before inflation kicks up globally based on oil prices. Ahearn, who also is the author of China Last Night, says China is prepared for oil and gas shortages, but it is looking at domestic consumption stimulus to help rev up consumers to help drive economic growth and improvement. "It's not all rainbows and unicorns over there, economically," he says, "but it's certainly not the apocalypse you would expect either."
One statement in Ahern's Big Interview is that "There's no such thing as China-ex investing," meaning it's hard to buy any funds or ETFs where the holdings truly exclude businesses from China, but Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, actually makes the point that in rare-earth metals, investors may want to take steps to avoid exposure to China. He makes the month-old Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China fund his "ETF of the Week," noting that rare-earth metals are a thematic play akin to buying gold miners, and that the new ETF, by avoiding China, follows a very different path than its longer-established competition.
Plus, Chantel Bonneau Stewart, Wealth Management Advisor at WiseFit Wealth Management and Insurance Solutions at Northwestern Mutual discusses the launch of Northwestern Mutual's Personal Prosperity Index, which in its initial reading found that Americans feel good about the health of their relationships, body, mind and money, but they're not feeling nearly so good about the economy and politics.
Andrew Almeida, director of investments at XYPN, says that investors shouldn't be too active in responding to the news, but he says that geopolitics is a real threat to portfolios, especially as current tensions linger and change the inflation landscape. Almeida — co-host of XYPN's new Balanced PM podcast, which launches today — notes that the risks you take in reacting to the news are at least as big as the risks you accept when you leave your current portfolio in place and ride it out; he discusses the discipline investors need to pursue their goals while not reacting to the proverbial elephant in the room.
Brendan McCann, research analyst at Morningstar discusses the firm's annual U.S. Fund Fee Study, released Tuesday, which showed that reduced fees saved investors $6.8 billion in fund expenses. He says, however, that while the long-term trend in expenses has been down, the industry may be reaching a point where -- thanks to the creation of new types of funds -- future cost reductions become increasingly difficult.
Plus, John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Growth and Aggressive Growth funds — featured on yesterday's show for an investment process that earned him the title of "Stock Market Maestro" by author and researcher Lee Freeman-Shor — returns to the show to highlight that methodology talking growth stocks in the Market Call.
John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that global central banks — including the Federal Reserve — have shifted to a rate-hiking mode. While some will wait to see when the Strait of Hormuz opens and how long higher oil prices impact inflation, he thinks the lingering tensions will force their hand. Further, he worries that the market's current levels "don't make sense," saying "multiple compression in the stock market should be [investors'] primary concern." Still, Blank says investors want to be fully invested, but possibly building a cash stash to get through some rougher times that he sees ahead.
Vincent Randazzo, chief market strategist at ViewRight Advisors — co-manager of the recently launched Defender Risk Adaptive 500 ETF — says the market is in a "recovery mode" from a decline it went through just as the war in Iran broke out, and because it's still in the early stages, the recovery is "lumpy," and led by the biggest names. Randazzo, who focuses his research on market breadth, expects this market to broaden out and include more smaller names as the recovery continues to build.
John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds — selected as a "Stock Market Maestro" by author and researcher Lee Freeman-Shor — discusses having market discipline and what it takes to deliver superior investment results through long-term, patient stock-picking. He also discusses how his methods are different from all of the other maestros Freeman-Shor identified in his book (discussed on the March 26th show), highlighting how there is no one right way to profit in the market.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Management, says that earnings are strong and should keep the stock market rolling, but that signs of weakness shown by the bond market and concerns about how the war in Iran is impacting oil are going to be limiting factors. Mullarkey worries that a longer conflict could turn oil into a global crisis, where rationing and other measures could create more severe and long-lasting economic troubles. If, however, the situation can be resolved quickly, Mullarkey says the shadows over hanging the market should clear quickly, providing a real boost going forward.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at the bond market's sell-off from the end of last week, and while investors can cheer bond yields reaching their year-to-date high, he notes that higher rates could stunt economic growth and hurt the stock market's trajectory. The big thing he expects to impact markets in the week ahead, however, is Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, where he is expecting gonzo numbers but a disappointed market response, simply because investor expectations are sky high. Plus, he discusses community protests over data centers, noting that there are economic consequences buried under the headlines, as limiting data center growth could curtail capital expenditures by tech companies and limit the speed with which artificial intelligence can reach its potential.
Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs puts Shake Shack back in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock — which currently trades in the $60 range after being as high as $144 in the last year — has a negative book value, and is using accounting measures that are clear signs of trouble.
Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says the stock market looks unbalanced to her, with the current rally built around mechanical issues, like an explosion of option sales that impact market performance. She is expecting a pullback, and says things could get ugly — with the Standard & Poor's potentially losing at least 1,500 points, — about 2,000 points — which is why she has moved an overweight part of her own portfolio into Treasuries. She sounds a note for caution during the conversation, noting that "Markets are unforgiving in the short run, but in the long run they are very forgiving. Almost always, you will get an opportunity — it might be months or years down the road — to get back at a price that is reasonable and something you are comfortable with, as opposed to chasing it."
Veteran market observer Nick Sargen, a regular contributor to The Hill, returns to The Big Interview to discuss the updated version of his book, "Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets." Sargen says the market is going through a lot of events — from the war in Iran to the fighting in ukraine, and more, but these events haven't had the historical impact on the market expected by these shocking events because artificial-intelligence spending has been so big that it just keeps the market powering along. "The optimism over A.I. in the stock market is having more impact on investors than the pessimism that consumers are currently feeling."
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, returns to the show to discuss how recent troubles in business-development companies created a haves and have nots" among BDCs, with the ones that have exposure to software loans suffering and struggling while the ones that aren't in software represent a strong opportunity to get double-digit yields and solid returns on equity.
Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, says that the Federal Reserve "is going to be very hard pressed to find a reason to cut [rates] here," and he thinks that if the central bank does have to make rate reductions down the road, "it won't be for reasons investors would be excited about." Mayfield says he remains bullish, noting that "a consolidation period is probably in order," setting up a volatile summer setting up a continuation of the bull market later in the year, barring any sort of exogenous shock. And speaking of shocks, Mayfield addresses what he sees as building signs of a market bubble, and while he says they bear watching, he is not expecting that kind of action to result from current conditions.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes Roundhill Memory — a brand-new fund that has raked in billions of dollars in assets in just weeks since it opened — his "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund has gotten off to a gangbusters start but that the fund's focus on just a few hot stocks should have investors concerned about whether it's a flash in the pan or here to last.
Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, returns to the Market Call, and focuses largely on business-development companies, which got hammered due to software lending in March, rebounded sharply in April but remain unloved by the market today. GraniteShares' HIPS U.S. High Income ETF invests largely in BDCs and closed-end funds; Rhind outlines the current yield outlook in that space and for master limited partnerships.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that we have "had the most stunning earnings season in pretty much anybody's recollection," exceeding expectations and making it that the market is more focused on the earnings story than anything else, including bad news about war, inflation and more. He sees that trend continuing, even if inflation rises or stays sticky, until or unless it bumps into a recession, which he sees as unlikely. Hyman also discusses ProShares' new ETF based on the S&P 500 Buyback Aristocrats Index, and how that fund and a sister dividend aristocrats fund can be used to add consistency to a portfolio for investors who fear the bad news. He also discusses why he is overweighting small-cap now, seeing it returning to its historic role of providing above-average market returns.
Rachel Perez discusses Choice Mutual's 7th annual Funeral Preferences Survey, which found that nearly one in five Americans have no financial plan whatsoever for their funeral, leaving family or friends to shoulder the burden, which averages in the $8,000 range but which can easily be double or triple that cost.
In the Market Call, Wayne Thorp, chief executive officer at BetterInvesting — which is part of the National Association of Investors — brings the well-developed principles of the group's Stock Selection Guide to look for high-quality growth companies that can be held for the long term.
Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says he expects the stock market to continue on its positive roll and wouldn't be surprised if it's up by about 6% from current levels over the next six months, but he also says that investors should expect interest rates to go up this year — even as he thinks the Federal Reserve will look to make a cut — because there is so much incoming bond supply driven by the artificial-intelligence boom and the need to fund A.I. projects. Further, Wells says that investors' bond funds are becoming "a tech bet" as the market changes and tries to absorb the massive funding needs behind new technologies.
Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says the current trend can drive the market higher, though the trend would need more breadth and participation to generate more optimism. He says investors should be using volatility to their advantage, especially in areas where consumer sentiment is weak, to buy into sectors that are on sale. Specifically, he is looking for alternative ways to play artificial intelligence, such as with energy companies and other adjacent industries.
Martha Moore, chief economist for the American Chemistry Council and survey chair for the National Association for Business Economics discusses NABE's latest Business Conditions Survey, released Monday, which showed that corporate economists see shrinking profit margins and, as a result, higher prices being passed along to consumers, which could keep inflation higher for longer. Despite that, the economists remain modestly positive on the next calendar quarter.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to view a portfolio that just set a personal peak, but that is overloaded with growth stock funds.
Vince Duffy, news director, Michigan Public, joined Chuck at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Conference in Philadelphia to discuss how the media handles its coverage of soft versus hard data and whether those stories — and others — are politicized. Duffy also talks about coverage priorities and the difficulties of balancing news that consumers need with the things they most want.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, joins the optimists in his assessment of last week's jobs data, though he does suggest the numbers have room to flex and will make it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly or deeply. He also discusses the wild GameStop bid to buy eBay, and revisits Jane Street Capital, the market maker he discussed a week ago, covering why it has become so important and why foreign regulators believe the company may be gaming the system.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, looks at the cash burning tendencies of some popular stocks — including two members of the Magnificent 7 — and puts them in the Danger Zone, noting that the burn rates suggest that there are potential troubles ahead.
Plus Chuck gives his surprising takeaway from the SABEW event, one he says he formed mostly during the long drive home, which he interrupted to fill his gas tank at prive levels that were painful.
Erik Aarts, senior fixed income strategist at Touchstone Investments, says the last few weeks have shown a disconnect between stock and bond markets, with the bond markets getting particularly cautious while stocks have raced back to record highs. What the bond market is worried about, Aarts says, is that higher oil prices will bleed into another round of higher inflation. ... At its base case, that's why yields are up today." Aarts also discusses how high-yield bonds are not living so much up to their label as "junk bonds," and that much of that high-risk exposure has moved to or stayed in private credit markets, changing the risk-reward profile of high-yield bonds and making them more attractive than other categories now.
For his ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes in an unusual direction, picking an emerging markets sovereign debt fund that gets poor grade from Morningstar but that Rosenblth says fits the bill for a growing group of investors looking for overseas bond exposure that's tied to the dollar.
Wall Street veteran Anthony Gallea, chief executive at Working Profit and publisher of the Working Profit Investment Letter, adds the twist of finding a catalyst to a Benjamin Graham-Warren Buffett style of value investing. In the Market Call, Gallea discusses how that works and where he sees potential catalysts now.
Parag Sanghani of the Westwood Holdings Group, manager of the firm's Enhanced Energy Income and Enhanced Midstream Income ETFs, says that the ongoing war in Iran has pulled volumes from inventories early, creating synthetic demand that will keep prices higher for several years. That benefits the oil companies and stocks that Sangahni likes, but it hurts by creating a tax at the gas pump, which he expects to remain in place longer than most projections. Sanghani says he currently likes the entire spectrum of energy investments, not just oil and gas, noting that power demands are expected to keep growing beyond current capacity constraints for years to come.
Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says that productivity, GDP growth and earnings are "what matters," and that the headline risks that are driving consumer sentiment are "distractions" from a market backdrop that is solid. He says inflation remains the big risk, but notes that the investor sentiment is creating opportunities, particularly in closed-end funds where they are reflected in discount trends.
Plus, Stephen Lubben, a law professor at Seton Hall University, discusses his recent book, "To Protect Their Interests: The Invention and Exploitation of Corporate Bankruptcy," and how the nation's bankruptcy laws have been used in ways that don't protect the broader economy from the failure of big firms but instead protect wealthy power brokers from facing financial consequences of mistakes and misdeeds.
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says that the stock market's flirtation with record highs is showing some overvaluation — increasing the potential downside risk — but he only expects that risk to be realized "if the narrative changes, if something comes out of left field that shakes the whole foundation of what is building market optimism today." His most likely candidate for that confidence-breaker is not war or current events, but some change in the artificial-intelligence boom that has been driving spending and earnings growth. St. Aubin says that if negative data on sentiment and feelings winds up showing up in changed habits and spending patterns, it could create economic problems, but until that happens, he says inflation and other concerns are not likely to derail the market's uptrend.
Andrew Chanin, chief executive officer at ProcureAM — which runs the Procure Space ETF (ticker symbol: UFO) talks about how space may be the next frontier in investing, particularly in light of the excitement coming off of the recent Artemis moon mission, which highlighted not only the potential investment avenues but the prospects for private companies to drive the future of space exploration. He explains how concepts like "solar space energy" could help to power Earth-bound needs for more energy, and how satellite changes are impacting communications industries and more.
Plus, researcher Allison Hadley discusses a study conducted for Partnercentric.com, which focused on Americans' impulse spending, which found that more than four in five consumers have made at least one impulse buy already this year, with an average of seven purchases made in the first quarter alone, and a median spend of $50 per purchase.
Brad McMillan, chief economist for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that there's "an enormous feel-bad headline economy," but the underlying fundamentals are solid enough to keep earnings growing, which will make it that the market does well, or at least avoids a protracted, deep downturn. McMillan worries that when the supply-chain breaks for food, for holiday shopping and more several months from now that it could trigger a recession, but he says that, for now, the numbers that normally signal that a grizzly bear market — a combination of a recession and a crashing market — aren't lined up to happen yet.
Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, also is staying out of the recession camp, but he does "suspect that we can't just go to the moon right away," and thinks the market could be in for a 5% haircut this month. Newton says that earnings and the economy have been better than expected, which is why he is telling people to "put on the blindfold and put on earphones" to concentrate on strong technical trends and economic data that remain in good shape.
Cary Sinnett, senior manager of financial planning at AICPA, discusses the group's survey which showed that while nearly 80% of Americans report having money set aside to cover living expenses and emergencies, the depth of those savings varies dramatically by age and gender, and the even among the savers less than one in five has enough on hand to cover more than a year's costs.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research Institute and the author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success," says that it doesn't matter much to the stock market when a rate cut happens, so long as investors can expect decline and believe the central bank will step in with one if employment numbers change significantly. Roberts says that the market wants to know that "the Fed has your back," and he expects new chairman Kevin Warsh to signal that, even if it is not accompanied immediately by rate cuts. Roberts also says that current conditions and the Fed's outlook should be leading investors to domestic stocks and particularly to small- and mid-cap names.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why the market liked Alphabet's earnings results last week but hated Meta Platform's numbers, and what that says about each company moving forward, discusses the disappointing crash landing of Spirit Airlines, and delves into the curious story of Jane Street Capital, the little-known Wall Street market maker that made headlines when it was revealed that its average compensation per employee last year was roughly $2.7 million, more than seven times higher than the average staffer at Goldman Sachs.
As the latest earnings season starts to wind down, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that companies with core earnings lower than their reported net income — a status that gets names kicked out of the Bloomberg New Constructs Core Earnings Leaders Index — are in the Danger Zone, largely because they are less profitable than Wall Street thinks they are. He singles out two companies, Boeing and Broadridge Financial Solutions, as examples of stocks where the true profitability is obscured.
Plus, Lester Jones, chief economist for National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers' Index, where the April numbers suggest that a "beer recession" looks to be over, with purchases strongly on the rise in preparation for the summer season, a result that is somewhat surprising because economic conditions suggest that consumers may be cutting back on spending. He says shifting consumption patterns are boosting sales, but he also expects inflation impacts to be more muted than many observers expect.
Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, says in the Market Call that scary headlines over higher gas prices, inflation and war haven't created a significant headwind to overcome the solid earnings growth picture. Stucky adds that beyond the earnings results, the economy is benefitting from tax and tariff reductions that are helping to balance out the new concerns; he discusses how a broader growth picture is good for small and mid-cap stocks, why he thinks the financial-services sector was oversold and more.
Jeff Corliss, managing director at HighTower Signature Wealth, discusses the behavioral traps and pitfalls that stop well-meaning investors with solid financial plans from achieving their real goals, noting that it's the details more than the markets that derails retirement savings before all of a plan's aims are met.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, recounts the legacy and the lasting investment legacy of Dr. Mark Mobius, widely considered the father of modern emerging-markets investing. Mobius, who passed away on April 15, was a contemporary and colleague of Sir John Templeton, and spent decades seeking out investments in the farthest reaches of the world; Scott looks at some of the wisdom collected in years of interviews done with George Cole Scott, the founder of The Closed-End Fund Letter.
Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that "thee's the real economy and there's what the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are measuring" and they're different, which is why it's "not crazy for the stock market to reflect something almost separated from reality." As a result, consumers can freak out at what they see at the gas pumps and grocery stores and concerns over war can be on everyone's mind at the same time the market is re-testing record highs. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Hsu also discusses why the U.S. and China have backed away from trade-war tensions and how artificial intelligence may have a bigger impact on work forces in India and China than it does in the U.S. and more.
In the Market Call, Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management, discusses the current ongoing rally in small-cap growth stocks and why she expects smaller stocks to return to their historical path of delivering gains that are slightly better than brand-name stocks over time.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a domestic dividend-driven fund for his ETF of the Week, noting that it's a defensive pick in part because "that's what has worked this year."
Shawn Severson, chief executive officer and the head of market and thematic research at Water Tower Research, says that oil futures prices looking out into 2027 and reacting as if "$70 is the new $60," a sign that the market does not think any oil shock will be long-lasting. Meanwhile, he says that the economy's continuing strength is showing that it can absorb and tolerate higher inflation and other current headline risks without falling into a recession. As a result, he sees downturns while the market digests the uncomfortable news as if there's a "pig in the python" as buying opportunities.
Jenny Harrington, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Gilman Hill Asset Management says in the Market Call that artificial intelligence having sucked up so much attention and investment dollars has actually created "more excellent opportunities in the past year than I have had in a long time." Despite that, Harrington says it's a tough overall market to pick stocks because current events are distorting and disrupting markets and "I don't think we've even begun to feel what the reverberations and aftershocks may be from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz."
Stephen Kates, financial analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the latest national housing affordability numbers that were released on Tuesday, and how cooling home prices offer modest relief to prospective buyers. He notes that with 30-year mortgage rates seemingly stuck at or above 6% nationally for a while, the market is not likely to feel much better even if affordability numbers keep showing moderate improvement.
Steve Laipply, global co-head of iShares Fixed Income ETFs for Blackrock, says that with fixed-income yields staying high and with evolving tools in new funds, investors have a generational opportunity to generate solid real returns and, more importantly, a solid income stream. BlackRock today released a new paper on current fixed-income opportunities, and Laipply discusses laddering bond ETFs with different maturities versus holding more general short-, intermediate and long-term funds, as well as the benefits of adding different types of fixed-income funds, including private credit and more.
Russell Rhoads, professor of financial management at Indiana University and co-host of Academic Market Insights, says in the "Talking Technicals" segment that he's "a beat-up bear," but he cautions that volatility remains elevated and that when the VIX volatility index is elevated when the stock market is going strong, "That usually doesn't end very well." He says that stocks are about six months into an over-valuation cycle, with the Cape Shiller PE Index hitting its highest levels in decades; "When it reaches a higher level like that," Rhoads says, "we have typically gotten a correction in the next year or two."
Plus, Chuck — who wrote two different books on choosing and working with financial advisers — answers a question from a listener whose financial adviser is retiring, who now has to decide if they accept that adviser's recommended replacement, go with an adviser with whom there are family ties or starts over with someone new.
While much of the focus on artificial intelligence has been on how it will improve productivity, economist Benjamin Shiller, author of "AI Economics: How Technology Transforms Jobs, Markets, Life and Our Culture," says that many impacts that are just starting to be seen will be at least as revolutionary. Shiller says, for example, tha expects an end or near end to pop-up ads and Internet advertising, expects books to be free and much more. He also discusses the continuing challenges of AI integration and whether investors have seen the true financial winners yet.
After a week in which Nvidia and Intel powered the stock market back to near record levels, Vijay Marolia, the chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why the rally in one of those stocks feels temporary while the other can roll on. He also compares and contrasts those stocks with Apple and Netflix, suggests that investors should slice technology stocks into thin industry groups to get a better understanding of valuations and talk about his expectations for inflation, all in "The Week That Is." Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts a mid-cap fund that is off to a hot start this year into The Danger Zone, noting that it is loaded with unattractive stocks far beyond the level of a cheaper mid-cap index fund that projects to be a better long-term holding for the future. He discusses why a fund getting solid ratings from Morningstar could look so ugly to him.
Kevin Steuer, managing partner at StockTA, says the stock market's rally after the initial peace talks over the War in Iran got a bit ahead of itself, and he's now expecting the market to hover — without facing much downside pressure — awaiting more resolution and clarity. He's heavily in cash at this point — the most cash he has held by percentage since the Covid crisis — and is looking at defensive, inflation-oriented plays while he waits for a signal that the rally is back on.
David Gutierrez, vice president at Liberty Street Advisors — which runs the Private Shares Fund — says that private markets are similar enough to public markets that one of the big sweet spots now is artificial intelligence, though he is focused mostly on A.I. infrastructure noting, for example, that the shift from copper-based to optical-based networking in servers is an investable trend that does not depend on how well the AI works but instead is based entirely on the demand for more technology support. He also discusses shifting trends in how long private companies are waiting before going public, and how geopolitics could be impacting private firms.
Plus, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Capital Management, brings his strategy of buying proven winners while they are still on the rise back to the Money Life Market Call.
John Silvia, chief executive officer at Dynamic Economic Strategy, says he expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady, leaving mortgage rates stuck at 6%-plus and in an environment with the 10-year Treasury rising slightly. Silvia points out that the central bank is not going to be frantic about 3% inflation and reducing it to the 2% target level, but he says that investors and retirees will suffer from that higher inflation, creating more of a retirement-savings struggle.
Courtney Werning, principal at Meyer Wilson Werning and the 2027 president-elect for the Public Investors Advocate Bar Association, discusses how and why smart consumers and investors get caught up in scams and how artificial intelligence has raised fraud risks, particularly for seniors.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , turns to Japan for his ETF of the Week, suggesting that it might be worth a portfolio tilt for someone looking to add foreign exposure to a portfolio. In the process, he discusses whether investors looking that way want to hedge the currency risk or play it straight.
Lance Cannon, portfolio manager at Hood River Capital Management, says in the Market Call that he is looking for transformational small companies that can benefit from changing trends in key industries, which has included artificial-intelligence stocks heavily as his funds produced stellar results in recent years. But Cannon says that looking for those companies means finding businesses that will not wind up on the wrong end of AI developments themselves, where a current flash will turn into a future crash.
Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses research she did for Howdy.com looking at how consumers use — and whether they trust — artificial intelligence. Following up on David Trainer's Monday appearance in The Danger Zone — where he put all AI users in the Danger Zone because the quality of information they are using is questionable — Hadley noted that consumers are split, with a large cohort having a healthy distrust of the accuracy of the new technology, while another large group is willing to trust its answers blindly.
Ray Shefska, co-founder of CarEdge, goes "Off The News," discussing the big expansion plans announced recently for the Amazon Autos program and how it will change — and potentially improve — the car-buying experience for consumers. While Amazon has been selling cars in a pilot program since 2024, the recent news marks an expansion into many more car brands now being available through the retailer.
Dana Samuelson, founder and president of American Gold Exchange, says gold investors shouldn't expect the rally in metals to resume at the pace it set last year — when gold was up over 60% — but he does believe that the fundamentals that were in place for that rally will drive gold back up once concerns over war and inflation are a little less prominent. He sees the metal hitting $6,000 in 12 to 18 months, and says he'd be buying in dips now.
Thomas Raymond, founding partner at Callan Family Office, says he's staying patient while war gets resolved, because backstopping the economy and the markets are a $7 trillion mountain of cash that investors will want to put to work, and the continuing artificial-intelligence story that is creating an attractive place to invest it. Those forces should drive the market higher, overcoming inflation and other headlines and potential "micro-recessions" to get there.
David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's recent look at America's massive ongoing wealth transfer, which found that 47% of inheritors don't plan to keep their parents' advisor. He discusses what's behind the changes and what kinds of advice inheritors are hoping to get.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says in "The Big Interview" that solid fundamentals from both the top down and the bottom up should make it that earnings can drive the stock market higher once there is resolution in Iran, where war has been creating problems that could make for a volatile and bumpy few months. He expects higher inflation to be temporary, but thinks conditions are solid enough for a strong rebound once the market feels confident that there is resolution, noting that bounce-backs tend to be solid and strong after geopolitical conflicts end. That makes for selective buy-the-dip opportunities for patient investors. David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, has been issuing warnings tied to artificial intelligence for a while, but this week he goes in a different direction, and comes for A.I. users in the Danger Zone," noting that the shortcomings of the new technology and a conflict of interest involved in its continued development have ordinary people relying on information that may not be so reliable.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at how the market is responding to the flip-flop in headlines over the Strait of Hormuz and discusses whether investors should expect the market to take off once there is clarity on the war. He also discusses what's next for earnings season and looks at two business pivots involving name-brand stocks that have gone in very different directions.
D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says he expects the market to continue its recovery through one more burst higher that lasts into the summer, but after that he is seeing "a bouncy, sideways market" with heightened volatility, swings reaching 20% up or down in a quarter. He is looking for "inflation-hedging names" for whatever happens coming out of the current cease-fire in the war in Iran, noting that he expects inflation to dampen the economy and the market for the remainder of the year.
Isaac Wakszol, chief executive officer at Activest Wealth Management, says investors need to guard against "this time is different" thinking in wanting to make portfolio changes due to the recent increase in inflation and oil prices, war in Iran and more. He notes that in the market's last 100 years, there have been 17 recessions and 20 wars and that markets have always recovered, "and we're on Day 40-something of this war and the market is higher." In preaching discipline, Wakszol did note that 2026 into 2027 will be "a year of reckoning" for artificial intelligence, to see if it can deliver on its promises, because failing that could dampen market enthusiasm.
In The NAVigator segment, Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that the fear-based selling that gripped the market around the start of war in Iran created a "generic widening" of discounts for closed-end funds. Shaker, a "discount-capture investor," says that widening — and the current recovery — was caused mostly by "the irrational effects of excessive selling pressures overall," which means that the bad news is creating buy-the-dips opportunities rather than fundamental problems for closed-end funds.
Gabe Diederich, portfolio manager at Baird, says that long-term indicators for inflation haven't moved much, which is good news for bond investors interested in capturing steady income for the long haul. He says in the Big Interview that he expects the Federal Reserve to wait on rate changes — so long as the economy and labor market remains stable — until there is more clarity and certainty in the numbers. Diederich says that fundamentals for bonds across the spectrum look solid, but he says "There's a great story for the tax advantage of municipal bonds," and that investors should look to take advantage of the tax benefits to generate real income and stabilize portfolios.
Kevin Callahan, founding partner, Fairway Capital Management — portfolio manager for the Fairway Private Equity & Venture Capital Opportunities Fund — talks about whether concerns in the private credit markets are bleeding into the venture-capital and private-equity space, and what lies ahead for alternatives markets, particularly as older technology investments made just a few years ago are looking less attractive in the face of artificial-intelligence developments today.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, highlights the brand new Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, and what the entrance of one of the world's biggest money managers to the crypto ETF space — introducing the lowest-cost spot bitcoin fund — means for investors and the industry.
Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, says that the beating that technology stocks have taken has made the sector ideal for patient investors hunting bargains. He says technology as a sector is now trading at a 20% discount to the firm's composite of fair values, and there have only been two other times since 2010 when tech has been that undervalued. As a result, he's looking at some big-name companies — including a few Magnificent Seven stocks and some beaten-down software names — as buys now.
Author John Coleman discusses his new book, "Good Money: Six Steps to Building a Financial Life with Purpose," which goes beyond just the money aspects to look at the work and social elements that will help make people happier and healthier, particularly as they transition more towards the retirement and slow-down phases of life.
Also, Chip Lupo, analyst at WalletHub, goes "Off The News" discussing Federal Reserve data released earlier this month which showed that total consumer credit increased at a 2.2% annual rate in February. WalletHub's analysis showed that, if the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, credit card debt as of February 2026 was at a new record high, topping last February by 3%. (Without the inflation adjustment, total credit card debt in February 2026 was effectively flat year over year.)
Journalist Kit Chellel discusses his new book, released today, "Lucky Devils: The True Story of Three Rebel Gamblers Who Beat the Odds and Changed the Game," the tale of 1970s gamblers who applied early computer technology to gambling at a time when the smallest computers were still the size of a suitcase. They created "advantage playing," and faced issues with casinos, the mob and more, but also laid the groundwork for a lot of what is happening now and being revisited in prediction markets and more.
Heather Hunt-Ruddy, divisional president at Wells Fargo Advisors, discusses the firm's recent white paper on building and maintaining generational wealth, and how to accomplish transfers without spoiling the next generations or setting the grandkids up to become spoiled and irresponsible.
In the Market Call, Joe Rinaldi, president and chief financial officer at Quantum Financial Advisors talks about both individual stocks and ETFs, discusses when he leans toward using one over the other, and says he is looking for opportunities now where he is being paid to wait for the market to recover and move back toward record highs.
Abe Sheikh, chief investment officer at Cordoba Advisory Partners, says that if tensions in Iran cool and oil prices settle down — which the futures market is saying is likely by year's end — says that the current spike in inflation is temporary and the risk of runaway inflation is much lower than it was during Covid times. With that in mind, he thinks current events are more setting up investment opportunities than stopping investors and getting them to panic away from equities and heightened volatility.
With consumer sentiment at record lows — but consumer confidence improving ever so slightly — in March, Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why feelings make headlines but fundamentals make for better investment prospects. That's why he's leaning into some of the market's most beaten down sectors; he discusses his take on the private credit market and on how to lean into it for better yields without getting tripped up by the current-event risk, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve as it increasingly finds itself pinched between its dual mandates.
David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs takes a victory lap on his pre-IPO take that put $BIRD in #TheDangerZone before it even launched.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question asking for clarification on how sequence-of-inflation risk works and how it differs in certain key ways from sequence-of-return risk. He has previously said, many times, that his big fear personally is sequence-of-return risk, and has said lately that prolonged inflation should have many people worrying about how it will impact their retirement if it remains sticky for the next few years.
Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says that the economy is on solid grounds and that earnings expectations are up, which has prompted him to stand fast on the 7,700 target he put on the Standard & 500 entering the year, and he expects the market to bounce back hard once headlines ease up and investors get more clarity. Krumpelman says he expects the market to broaden out, but he says it will be a "RAD" year, for "risk awareness and diversification," noting that investors will want to get portfolios back to their asset allocation plans and diversify to avoid concentration risk.
With the market kicking business-development companies in the teeth, John Cole Scott , president of CEF Advisors — and chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — grinds through his firm's "artificial-intelligence risk scoring" data to find BDCs that have been hurt by headlines without holding tainted portfolios. The result, he says, are two funds that have seen their valuations — but not their underlying portfolios — hurt by the headlines, making them underpriced value plays now.
In the Market Call, James Abate, head of fundamental strategies for Horizon Investments — portfolio manager for the Centre Funds — is also looking for areas of the market that have solid long-term prospects but that are facing current disruptions.
Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, says global uncertainty "is at the highest level it has ever been," which is why investors have been leaning into quality and other factors they understand and are comfortable with, but he says value-oriented investors should be looking for less-traveled paths, searching for opportunities where they feel really uncomfortable "and where it's hard to pull the trigger." Yusko discusses ETFs in the Market Call, but also talks current events, noting that "Volatility is disagreement about future outcomes."
With the "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to an actively managed municipal bond fund as a tax-time diversion, but he notes that the low-cost fund with a solid tax-free yield deserves long-term consideration too.
Jamie Hopkins, co-author of "Your Retirement Sketchbook: 125 Retirement Planning Lessons from Financial Experts," discusses the new book, holes many people leave in their financial planning and how to take charge of the process and fill in the gaps.
Wayne Wicker, president of Opal Capital, says investors "are bombarded every day with news items," and while those things are interesting, they're also "meaningless" for most people with a long-term horizon. He suggests "looking through the noise," and notes that in the cacophony of current events, he sees opportunities in mid-cap stocks and in some areas and individual issues where the market has overreacted in recent weeks.
Personal finance journalist Brian O'Connor discusses the importance of looking more deeply into target-date funds — a default-choice investment that most investors pick without giving it much thought — noting that the way those funds work could leave investors subject to significant sequence-of-return risk, particularly if they are Baby Boomers planning to retire soon. O'Connor, who wrote about the subject in a recent New York Times piece, isn't saying investors should avoid target-date funds but instead advocates for a level of management and involvement that many users don't normally apply to these one-size-fits-all portfolios.
Geoff Garbacz, principal at Quantitative Partners, discusses how record levels of short interest are changing the market broadly and the prospects for a lot of stocks, as he goes both long and short in the Market Call.
Joseph Shaposhnik, founder/chief executive officer of Rainwater Equity — manager of the Rainwater ETF, which focuses on buying into recurring revenue models at reasonable prices — says that the software industry "is embroiled into a controversy that is very difficult to dispute until we have [multiple] quarters of these businesses putting up very, very strong results." But because he expects those results from software firms, he thinks the market has beaten up software stocks as if they are all going to fail, making them bargain priced now with a potential rebound in sight. Shaposhnik talks about how recurring-revenue stories lead to more predictable results, which should give investors some comfort against uncertain times.
With the average price on a new car now hovering near $50,000 at a time when Americans are being squeezed by higher prices at the gas pump, Robert Steenburgh, chief executive officer at AutoPayPlus talks about how consumers should be dealing with the challenges of financing a car, particularly at a time when the average monthly payment is now $735 — and more than $1,000 for 20 percent of new-car buyers — with teh average loan term now stretched to 84 months.
Another way that consumers are finding their finances stretched is in home buying, and Ted Shanahan, chairman of Blueprint Financial Group, discusses the latest data from Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress study, which showed that parents now play a bigger role in helping children buy homes, and say that providing that assistance is as or more important than paying for college.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about closed-end fund discounts, how they put stocks on sale and why discounts are appealing even when their benefits aren't readily evident when researching a fund or holding it in a portfolio.
Neeraj Khemlani discusses his new book, "The Coffee Can Investor: A Stock-Picker's Journey to Build Generational Wealth" — out this week — which tells the story of picking a few stocks and stashing them away in the same way that some people hide valuables for decades in old coffee cans. It delves into portfolio manager Matt Ankrum, who took the practice and super-charged it by researching hundred-baggers — long-term winners that deliver above-market returns — who aims to turn his own children into centi-millionaires by the time they retire.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses how he has responded to volatility in oil markets since war started in Iran by going long on oil futures using a popular ETF and shorting airline stocks. Marolia also looks into the investing opportunities in space, noting that they go far beyond the current Artemis II moon mission and the public stock launch of SpaceX, which is expected to give the company a market capitalization beyond $2 trillion when shares launch this summer.
Peter Tuz, chief executive officer at Chase Investment Counsel -- co manager of the Chase Growth Fund -- talks about finding growth stocks at reasonable prices now, and why he mostly has rotated away from the Magnificent Seven stocks in favor of small companies with solid long-term potential that the market has yet to recognize.
Ryan Isherwood, chief investment officer at Significance Capital, says that the stock market's momentum has not been broken even as it backed away from recent record highs, which means that stocks have been correcting since last October. That makes it more of a time correction — which can last longer — than a short, steep price drop. That said, Isherwood noted that there are strong signs that the market could resume its long-term upward trend and bullish bias once the geo-political pullback ends as there is more clarity in the headlines.
Yelena Maleyev, senior economist at KPMG Economics, discusses the March 2026 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today, which showed that the consensus forecast among economists has deteriorated sharply in the last few weeks, with two-thirds of the group expecting a reduction of GDP this year, and in many cases that economic activity slowdown will be big, but will stop short of recession conditions. Nearly 70% of the economists said the broadening of geopolitical conflicts is the "greatest downside risk to the economy over the next 12 months;" just 8% felt that way about geopolitical worries just three months ago.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a diversified natural resources index fund as his "ETF of the Week," noting that a multi-sector approach involving upstream energy companies, agricultural companies and more can be a good diversifier — while providing a decent yield — in current conditions.
Plus Matt Weyandt, a client portfolio manager on the listed real assets team at Nuveen, discusses how a "Halo theme" — heavy asset, low obsolescence — positions investments in real estate, infrastructure and commodities to perform well despite global headlines that are buffeting markets. Specifically, Weyandt notes that location-specific hard assets with contractual income streams are built to deliver regardless of the broad market conditions.
David Chavern, president and chief executive officer for the American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI), discusses how insurance companies — who have been investing in private credit situations long before those investments were available to the general public — are withstanding the risks that critics say could cause the next financial crisis. Chavern also discusses the changing role of insurance, and specifically annuities, in financial planning as the last generations to get pensions are reaching retirement age and the next group of savers is looking for consistent, stable income later in life.
Howard Dvorkin, chairman at Debt.com, discusses "pig butchering," a sophisticated financial scheme where criminals build a relationship with victims online and then persuade them to invest in fake crypto or other fraudulent schemes. The bad guys' efforts have been bolstered by the development of artificial intelligence, making it easier to connect with targets — often the elderly or young, naive newbie investors — for them to "fatten them up" before slaughter.
Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, talks stocks in the Market Call. In an issue related to the private-credit concerns discusses in the Chaven interview, Graham takes a particular interest now in some of the business-development companies that have been tarnished by recent lending issues and portfolio re-valuation problems, noting that their are solid long-term business reasons to ride out the current headlines expecting a long-term payoff.
Arin Dube, an economics professor at UMass-Amherst, discusses his new book, author, "The Wage Standard: What's Wrong in the Labor Market and How to Fix It," noting that the federal minimum wage standard is so low that it's like having no standard at all, prompting many states to pass their own rules. Further, he notes that real wage growth happens mostly in times of full employment, so he is optimistic that sound policy and job demand can help fix problems in the current system.
On way some employers get around minimum wage rules is in jobs that involve tipping and WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo, discusses the site's annual tipping survey, which found that 81% of people think tipping has gotten out of control. More than 2 in 5 Americans think the U.S. should ban tips altogether.
Stephen Dissette, founder of Stephen D. Dissette & Associates discusses how retirement savers can add "operational readiness" to financial plans, making more of their savings and getting more functionality out of their assets while easing shortfall worries.
Plus, Chuck goes off the news to discuss Monday's announcement from the U.S. Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration on how it plans to expand access to alternative investments -- including private credit, cryptocurrency and more -- in 401(k) plans. The proposed rule lowers litigation risk and clears some regulatory burdens, lowering the hurdles for putting more alternatives into retirement accounts, but Chuck says it also raises some concerns and red flags.
Jim Thorne, economist and chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, says that "when the Iran situation calms down ... we're going to see massive multiple expansion and the geopolitical risk is going to drop." As that story plays out, Thorne says to buy areas that will help build the U.S., and to buy into electricity generation to help support the artificial-intelligence boom. He also said that expects the Trump Administration to try to "run the economy hot" once tensions have ended, in order to help deal with the deficit.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is also looking for a potential pick-up once the market can take its attention off of the war and the rapidly changing market sentiments in the battle between artificial intelligence and software. He says investors should back away from the headlines and keep a sharper watch on the job market, inflation and interest rates, which have the potential to take the market's focus off of the earnings numbers that drove gains in 2025.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, says that he expects a number of high-flying companies to miss their earnings projections in the next quarter, noting that Wall Street keeps "two sets of numbers, the one they show the world and the real number," and that when the street figures out the real numbers, stocks like Solventum and Advanced Micro Devices are looking at big price adjustments.
Plus, Blake Gunderson of Northwestern Mutual Rockwall/East Texas discusses Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress study, which showed that a sizeable number of Americans — most notably younger adults — feel like they are financially behind and are investing in or considering high-risk speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, prediction markets and sports betting as ways to play catch up.
Jessamyn Norton, senior managing director at Clearstead Trust, says we're in a "one-variable market," with the price of oil being the only thing currently moving prices, and with the commodity likely to be the determining factor daily moves until the Straits Times of Hormuz reopens. So long as the concern lifts and other variables come back into play soon, if oil concerns linger and the market stays below its 200-day moving average, she says the Standard & Poors 500 could be in for a big decline if it can't hold around the 6,000 level.
Kim Flynn, president at XA Investments, a firm that specializes in alternative investments, says recent private-credit bad news events have widened discounts and raised concerns over business-development companies and interval funds, but have likely created a buy-the-dip moment in the industry.
In the Market Call, Michael O'Keefe, chief of staff at CAZ Investments, talks about his long-term thematic approach to stocks and ETFs, including how he is mixing the long-term uptrends in artificial intelligence with the more-recent downturn in software stocks. He also discusses why he currently owns none of the Magnificent Seven stocks.
Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager for the Midas Funds, says that while war typically is good for precious metals generally, the case for gold miners being able to deliver outsized returns is particularly strong now. Moreover, Winmill says the forces that contributed to gold being up more than 50 percent in the last 12 months — despite being down more than 10 percent in the last 30 days — are intact, and while war in Iran and geopolitics generally are creating a downturn, the longer-term forces will return once there is more clarity about economies around the globe.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a relatively young, actively managed, concentrated, equity-income fund that uses an options/derivative strategy as his ETF of the Week, noting that it's an addition to a portfolio that adds stability, but that should be used in moderation.
Plus, Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn — who was the show's first-ever Market Call guest in 2012 — returns to Money Life, bringing his news-sensitive investment style with plenty of news to talk about. McIntyre was last on the show nearly a year ago, when he was positive on energy and oil stocks; he discusses where they fit in a portfolio now, amid the turmoil in the oil business due to the war in Iran.
Danielle Labotka, behavioral scientist at Morningstar, discusses her research into how retirees withdraw money from their lifetime savings accounts and found that about half rely exclusively on simple approaches, like calculating expected expenses or taking required minimum distributions. As a result, she says, retirees are short-changing themselves, leaving money in accounts and cutting back on needs and wants rather than doing the math to come up with something more tailored to their situation. Worse, she says, 98 percent of retirees say they have no intention of changing their strategy.
Speaking of spending strategies, Brian Vines, an analyst at Consumer Reports and co-host of the Talking Carts podcast about shopping, discusses their comparison of the most and least expensive supermarket chains. Chuck, who considers himself a careful shopper, learns that his preferred chain finishes next-to-last in the study, so the conversation turns to how consumers can do more and better with their money if they are careful, shop around and know pricing.
In the Book Interview, Brett Steenbarger, an educator and authority on trading, discusses his new book, "Positive Trading Psychology: Turning personal strengths into trading strengths."
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question on sequence-of-inflation risk, why it has just recently been coming to the fore and how it could be impacting retirees and near-retirees now.
Alex Coffey, senior trading and derivative strategist at Charles Schwab, says that since the conflict in Iran began, there has been more of a tug-of-war market and that the bears have been winning the battle, and while the decline has not been swift, the longer duration of the turmoil the more traders and investors are on edge. Coffey notes that the market's short-term trend is bearish, but the market is testing the longer-term 200-day moving average and the longer-term uptrend may be breaking.
Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners, says in the Big Interview that investors need to recognize that there is always drama going on around the markets, and that the concerns create worries, but "You generally do best by doing the least, if you have a well diversified portfolio and a strategy of how your assets are invested and you stick to that strategy." He discusses how investors are dealing with the war and much more, and how calm is the personal commodity that most people should be investing in right now.
Financial journalist Allan Sloan discusses how one share of stock in a Detroit bank — purchased for about 40 bucks a half century ago so that he would be allowed into the company's annual meetings — has turned into about $5,000, highlighting the power of dividend reinvestments and time. Sloan — who made several small stock purchases in his wife's name over the years in order to access meetings and information that non-shareholders would have been excluded from — talks about how reinvesting turned insignificant payments into something much more meaningful.
Sean Clark, chief investment officer at Clark Capital Management Group, says that while markets tend to whipsaw around headline events like the war in Iran, the initial market reaction — historically a decline of about 7 percent — gives way to a bounce-back that helps investors a few months after the turmoil starts. As a result, he's suggesting that investors "be cautious with their allocations and don't make any big changes" despite their nervousness over the news cycle.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that recent layoffs at Meta Platforms are a signal of bigger troubles brewing, and that broader tech layoffs at companies like Oracle and Amazon are a sign of rouble. While not expecting stocks like Meta to crater, Trainer makes the case that as a weaker player in the artificial-intelligence game, the company could be looking at a lot of capital expenditures that don't necessarily boost the bottom line. As a result, he pegs the stock's value at hundreds of dollars less than its current trading range.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that Micron Technologies has the fundamentals to be a darling on Wall Street, but the market sentiment has soured on the company, dropping the stock prive hard despite recent guidance that was well beyond what analysts' have been estimating for the company. In "The Week That Is," he also discusses higher oil prices and how consumers should expect them to stay higher for about two months — noting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's quote about 50 days of discomfort on pricing — before expecting substantive change. He also discusses the latest wave of artificial intelligence that now seems to be taking over thinking that was current as recently as a week or two ago, and how the fast developments are an issue investors need to be aware of, even if they should not be too reactive to them.
Nick Venditti, senior portfolio manager and head of the municipal fixed income team at Allspring Global Investments, says that in a world worried about the macro picture and geopolitics, municipal bonds are a safe haven that is almost completely unaffected by global strife. The sector is delivering reasonable yields and is "fundamentally very strong from a bottom-up credit perspective," Venditti says, calling it a "no-brainer, free lunch kind of trade" for investors to move from money-market funds to short-term muni bonds, where rates are better and tax benefits create a boost on return.
John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors — the Chairman of the Active Investment Company Institute — says that closed-end funds are being buffeted in two directions due to current headlines, with war in Iran impacting net asset values and anchored interest rates impacting levered closed-end funds, with discounts moving as a result. He put his firm's "Trifecta analysis" to work, with four funds to consider now: ticker symbols AFB, ARDC, CSQ and MEGI.
Author Lee Freeman-Shor discusses "Stock Market Maestros: The Winning Habits, Strategies and Mindsets of the World's Best Investors," discusses how he identified a group of lesser-known investment stars and what they do that makes them great, and that individuals can do to learn from and replicate those results.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments and the Merk Funds, says that the Federal Reserve's Wednesday disclosures were not a surprise, but do suggest a bit of a ho-hum attitude that the market has over the situation in Iran. Mostly, he says, the market is pricing things as if the tensions and resulting impacts on the oil market will remain short-term disruptions. He discusses his expectations for oil, god and more in the Big Interview.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also looks at gold, with his pick for the ETF of the Week, and does it in a way that is unusual for him, because it focuses more on the fund's expenses than his typical weekly selection.
Alex Morris, chief executive officer at F/m investments, talks about the firm's filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to tokenize its Treasury fund, a first-of-its-kind move that has potential to change the way ETFs trade, making them directly accessible on the blockchain. He discusses the industry implications but also why this is the obvious next step in integrating crypto into the rest of the financial world.
Plus, Chuck filled up his gas tank yesterday, and the price was 90 cents higher than the last time he was at the pump. Rather than complain, he discussed the situation with people at nearby pumps, and he describes the politically diverse conversation and his takeaways from it.
Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says that a short conflict in Iran remains his base case, noting that the war has been proceeding at a slightly faster pace than he might have expected. Facing a limited but intense war with economic consequences, Christopher suggested investors should rebalance a portfolio more than make moves designed to try to take advantage of short swings caused by the conflict. If the Iran War lasts more than a few months or pushes oil prices past $150 per barrel, Christopher says that could change the game and create a deeper, lingering downturn.
MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends discusses the thinking behind his recent column on why he doesn't expect oil prices to top $150 per barrel.
Dave Brown, chief executive officer at Hays Staffing discusses the firm's 2026 Salary & Hiring Trends Report, which talked about how disruptive artificial intelligence has become for the job market. The annual study showed that A.I. is changing not only the way employers are hiring but the way workers are applying for jobs, and why that doesn't necessarily improve conditions for either side.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about his side gig as a lacrosse referee, and about finding the right side job in general.
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that rising oil prices and higher inflation have increased the possibility of a recession. While she says the operating outlook for investors is that the war in Iran will last a few more weeks, with oil starting to flow again quickly, which will make current events quickly forgettable as the economy returns to its pre-war growth path. But she notes that the path is uncertain, and the longer war persists and sours economic numbers, the more it draws out potential problems. "The challenge," Garretty says, "is the recovery ... if it doesn't look like what everyone expects."
Veteran technical analyst Adam Grimes, president of MarketLife, says the market has reached "a point where I would want to be raising capital, where I would want to be defensive with long exposure. This is not a point where I want to put capital to work." Grimes says he sees the potential for a bad short-term downturn, noting that "[my] definition of bad is 50 to 60 percent." Grimes acknowledged that he sounds "like the raving crazy person at the top of the mountain," but he says that market cycles and enormous moves do repeat itself and the market is making a big decline a more-realistic possibility, which hasn't made him move out of the market but has made him more defensive.
Mark Burrage, senior vice president at PenFed Home at PenFed Credit Union, discusses the wide range of factors that are making homebuyers uncomfortable, and what families can do to overcome the issues they are facing in buying a home.
Bill Davis, portfolio manager for Stance Capital and the Hennessy Sustainable ETF, says that current events have contributed to some market rotation back towards mega-cap tech names, because the market views them as comparative safe names that are not correlated to oil prices. That represents what he expects to be a short-term reversal in trends because the market had been moving broadening out, with the Magnificent 7 stocks struggling. He expects that trend to resume and continue as the headline risk subsides, when he expects the market to continue moving the market away from communications services and big tech toward more defensive and value-oriented stocks.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, focuses The Danger Zone on "residual value guarantees" — which hide debt off-balance sheets allowing companies to spend money and to have liabilities that it mostinvestors will not know about until or unless a problem makes them surface. He says the says the phenomenon is particularly acute with artificial-intelligence companies, where a lot of money is being invested into construction that is backed by residual-value guarantees, and he singles out Oracle and Meta Platforms as two examples where the practice adds to New Constructs' unfavorable opinion of the stocks.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that he expects oil prices to remain elevated until there is more clarity in the Strait of Hormuz, but that prices should snap back quickly to lower levels once the supply chain is clearly restored. In waiting for that clarity, he suggests oil tankers as a play on the situation, noting that it's a picks-and-shovels play on the industry, and that the tankers are making money even as they sit filled with oil waiting for resolution. He also discusses why Microsoft's recent decline is not something long-term investors should worry about, and more in "The Week That Is."
Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments, discusses the adage that the first shots of war are a time to be buying investments, and he says investors might want to take more of a wait-and-see approach, at least until they get more clarity on how the war in Iran will impact oil prices. While President Trump has moved to keep the price of oil below $100 a barrel, Gilhooly makes a case that if the tensions drag out, oil could quickly rise to $175 a barrel, a level high enough that it might cause a global recession. In the end, he expects a quick return to pre-war economic activity levels, including one interest-rate cut later this year -- if hostilities subside quickly.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott says that headline risks are diverting attention from a bond market that, in the long run, should be driven by positive economic conditions and decelerating inflation. The war in Iran is creating what he thinks will be more temporary conditions that scare investors but that don't amount to much long-term change in the market's outlook. LeBas expects corporate profits this year to be roughly 12%, which is strong enough to help the corporate bond market, which he also thinks will be buoyed by the hyper-scalers needing to borrow money to put it to work to keep up in the development race.
Bernie Horn, manager of the Polaris Global Value fund, returns to the Market Call to discuss stocks and international markets in the face of current events. Like Bill Smead -- a value manager who was on the show earlier this week -- he talks about how value investing suffered while the stock market was in hot-growth mode led by the Magnificent Seven. Now, however, market valuations are high, which is setting up a rotation that he says will favor value-minded investors moving forward.
Jay Jacobs, U.S. head of equity ETFs at BlackRock, says that the artificial-intelligence revolution has delivered massive spending, but not at levels that have been spent relative to gross domestic product, during other generational shifts like the introduction of the automobile. As a result, while he understands the bubble concerns, he expects AI to continue holding its place among BlackRock's global thematic trends. Also on that list of trends is geopolitical shifts, which were well underway before current events evolved into a war in Iran; because those trends were in place before today's developments, Jacobs says he doesn't expect markets or outlooks to be dramatically impacted by headline events. Jacobs also discusses the new iShares Staked Ethereum fund, a new development in the crypto space, which the firm is launching today.
Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income, at The American College of Financial Services, discusses his revised, third edition of "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success," which includes a new section covering sequence-of-inflation risk. Pfau says that concern -- which financial advisers mostly overlooked -- is particularly important now given growing concerns about sticky inflation, and that it may be as important for retirement savers as sequence-of-return risk, which Chuck typically says is his biggest retirement-savings worry.
Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into global turmoil this week, picking a diversified international fund as his ETF of the Week.
Bill Smead, manager of the Smead Value fund, says that by nearly every indicator, the stock market is at valuation levels seldom seen in American history, with the Standard & Poor's 500 trading "at more than 220% of GDP, the most dangerous number, virtually, we have ever seen." That does not make him want to get out of the market, however, as he says in the Market Call that "the problem everybody's got is that most of the money is in the place that is likely to do the poorest over the next 10 years, because it has done the best the last 15 years, and that is our opportunity."
Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says that investors have good reason to be skittish right now because the market has dropped off of highs, but he doesn't expect things to get really bad so that further market drops are an opportunity to dig in and make tactical purchases. In The Big Interview, Cofrancesco talks about his concerns about inflation — which he calls "an insidious tax on the working class and the poor" — noting that if it stays higher for longer it can change retirement-spending trajectories that investors need to plan for.
Jennifer White, senior director, banking and payments intelligence at JD Power, discusses the firm's recent report showing that the financial health of American consumers has reached a 12-month low. She notes that the firm is classifying more consumers as financially unhealthy, in large part due to the stubbornly high cost of consumer goods, noting that current events which could create a spike in oil prices and which threaten more inflation weren't yet factored into the numbers, making the outlook for consumers that much more troubling.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, entered 2026 expecting more volatility from the market and geo-politicla events, and while he "didn't have war in Iran on his dance card," he doesn't think it will change the outcomes all that much. He expects oil markets, for example, to stabilize once investors are certain that the Straits of Hormuz have re-opened, and he thinks there is plenty of opportunity where money has been flowing, into areas like artificial-intelligence infrastructure. All in all, he expects the stock market to celebrate a fourth birthday for the current bull market.
Veteran trader Peter Robbins discusses his book, "The Trader's Journey: Navigating the Path to Trading Success," covering how important it is for traders — even investors who want to do modest amounts of transactions with a small percentage of their holdings — to find the system that works for them and their lifestyle, and he talks about how technology has changed trading, but how the evolution in artificial intelligence hasn't made it so that individual investors can't find a working path to success.
Allison Hadley discusses a study she did for PartnerCentric.com study looking at AI shopping trends, where she found that nearly half of Americans tried AI-powered shopping last year, buying an average of more than $400 in eight transactions, and nearly two-third of shoppers expect to embrace AI when shopping this year. Despite that advancement, she notes that only 13% of Americans trust AI completely in its shopping recommendations with more than 80 % of consumers verifying its suggestions independently.
Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer at Research Affiliates, says that "Volatility is just a reaction to something new, and something that has changed," which is why investors can expect a volatile market as it works through the start of the war in Iran. That said, he is not expecting the war to change much, other than increasing volatility, provided it does not last for a long stretch of time. Masturzo does think that current events will contribute to higher inflation, but he says that — whether the Federal Reserve likes it or not — a 3% inflation rate has become the norm and is likely to remain that way, in large part because the economy has shown that it can push through that level of inflation and continue growing.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, also digs in on inflation in "The Week That Is," noting that the upcoming inflation numbers will be the financial story of the week ahead, but also potentially for many consumers' financial lifetime, noting that if higher inflation becomes the norm, it dramatically changes the math for building a retirement-savings nestegg that can overcome longevity and purchasing-power risk. Marolia also discusses the early impacts of war in Iran on the market and how he expects it to play out in oil prices, as well as his sense on what's next for the Space X merger.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes a victory lap on some Danger Zone picks that have paid off, but where he believes there is significantly more trouble to come. It's a rogue's gallery of names like Affirm and Snap that all have fallen by at least 25% in 2026 and much further than that since their 52-week highs; Trainer notes that these stocks, and several others that he discusses, may look like bargains now that they have been beaten down, but warns that investors who buy now could be catching proverbial falling knives. Further, he says, there is no need to chase big losers in hopes of catching a turnaround.
Jim Welsh, the strategist behind the Macro Tides and Weekly Technical Review newsletters, says that the market's underlying strength won't stop a short, fast decline of as much as 7%, but it will provide strong resistance to a full-blown correction or bear market. Welsh notes that people fear that the economy will be severely disrupted because they remember oil shocks creating recessions in the 1970s, but oil prices have much less ability "to tip the economy into recession now," so he thinks the impact of current events will be less than most investors fear. Welsh has been forecasting a secular bear market — a long reversal of fortune for the stock market — for a few years now, and he still sees one coming, but he doesn't think that starts until "the next recession" creates a situation that stalls growth and disrupts the market.
Amid all of those market worries and concerns, Ryan MacDonald, portfolio manager for the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund, says that private real estate is "uniquely boring, in a good way." MacDonald, who also serves as chief investment officer at Bluerock, says that three painful years of interest rate changes have driven values down to where they are attractive. "Entry point is the single biggest driver of future value for private real estate returns" and, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the market is now approaching valuation levels "not seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis."
Jaime Seale discusses the 2026 home renovation trends survey from Clever Real Estate, which showed that half of all homeowners say their home is facing necessary repairs or renovations that they can't afford given current economic and personal conditions. Nearly six in 10 homeowners have nothing saved for emergency repairs , which is particularly alarming because 85 percent of homeowners spent money last year on an unplanned repair.
Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs commodity-oriented ETFs — says that war in the Middle East will have mostly short- and medium-term impacts on markets, commodities and inflation, noting that "If you're not already long energy, you're taking a pretty big risk by buying it now." He says he will be watching fertilizer prices — because Iran is a large producer of urea, a key ingredient in fertilizers — expecting to see some inflationary pressures, but he thinks that, too, will pass quickly. Teucrium also runs crypto funds and Gilbertie also gives his take on how leading currencies will get through the current "crypto winter."
With current events in the Middle East impacting his thinking, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a large-cap, low-volatility index fund for the "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund may not be the highest of flyers but it has a history of softening the blow of market downturns and troubles.
Rod Yancy, founder of the Oath Money and Meaning Institute, discusses research which found that healthcare costs — premium, prescriptions, long-term care and more — are the top financial worry of American retirees entering 2026, but which also showed that a solid majority of retirees have a positive outlook this year despite current economic and geopolitical concerns.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about using artificial intelligence to improve personal portfolio results.
Louie Navellier, president of Navellier & Associates, says that while it is early to make any definitive statement on outcomes of military actions in the Middle East, he believes the energy industry narrowly and the domestic stock markets broadly are winning as a result of these actions. He makes the case that the dollar historically strengthens in times of conflicts, and that domestic markets enter these times much stronger than foreign markets; he's expecting the stock market to produce "a great year," though he is emphasizing gold stocks to get through and past the current headline events.
Author Kim Lankford, author of "Medicare 101: A Crash Course in Federal Health Insurance," discusses the relationship consumers should have with the Medicare system, its future when it comes to financing and how to navigate the morass of rules and regulations to avoid a lifetime of higher premiums and health-care costs. Chuck and his wife Gail are nearing the age when they must make Medicare decisions and enroll in the program, so they are the real-life examples of the considerations consumers have to make.
Plus, Allison Hadley, discusses a survey she did on worker happiness for Howdy.com, which found that more than half of American employees consider work to be "just a paycheck." Happiness at work involves many factors, Hadley said, noting that 93% of happy workers have clear ways to succeed on the job, compared to just 52% of unhappy workers, who feel they don't have much opportunity to advance personally or professionally.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the last six months of falling prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum represent a "normal crypto winter," the kind of downturn you see every few years, which typically lasts no longer than 11 months. He thinks the market is nearing the bottom of the cycle now, though he warns there could be more damage before any turnaround, especially with a market facing a lot of idiosyncratic events; still, he believes both crypto and global equity markets are poised for better days ahead. Hougan notes that cryptocurrency started as a "100% speculation" is evolving to where it truly becomes "as normal as gold," making it so solid that it's not really speculation at all; he says Bitcoin is roughly half way into that transition now.
Long-term technical trader Mick Heyman, founder of Heyman Investment Counseling and author of "Mellow Your Money," sees the potential for the market to suffer a "shock event" — a one- or two-day decline of 10 to 15% — and a lot of volatility for the rest of this year, but he generally expects the market to push through that decline, which could get the Standard & Poor's 500 down to the 6,000 level, and then climb back higher. Heyman is not suggesting that investors trade out of the market to wait out the downturn; instead, he suggests diversifying and rebalancing, noting that "This is not a time to bet on energy or defense ... This is not a time to bet for or against the Mag 7. ... This is a time to be sure you can handle that 10 or 15% drop."
Plus, leading personal finance journalist Andrea Coombes discusses the end of the popular Direct File program from the IRS and how that is leaving consumers scrambling for free tax-filing help this year and where they can turn for help and red flags to watch for in the process.
Economist Howard Yaruss, the author of "Understandable Economics" and a professor at New York University, says that the market and the economy are strong on average, but that "chaos" — including the international tensions that escalated in Iran over the weekend, but also tariff and trade policies and more — should have investors leaning into gold. Yaruss notes that the market has seen so much speculative activity — including trillions for dollars invested into artificial intelligence infrastructure — so that when people see smaller-than-expected payback, the market and economy could go through the kind of demoralizing event that, historically, creates a recession.
Yaruss isn't the only one focused on chaos, as Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, talks in "The Week That Is' about "disruption" being the keyword for the week and beyond. He says that tensions in the Middle East have the potential to disrupt the oil market, noting how artificial intelligence has disrupted software stocks and, more broadly, technology companies and the market itself, but he also says that investors need to avoid disrupting their own portfolios by over-reacting to the headlines and the rapid-fire emotional swings.
Building on that theme of changes impacting the market's leading sector — and continuing a theme from recent Danger Zone segments, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says that technology stocks outside of the Mag 5 are headed for trouble. And, yes, he calls it the "Mag 5" because he doesn't think two companies come close to still qualifying as "magnificent."
Plus, Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, discusses his recent coverage of Blue Owl's private credit meltdown and how the company's answers to questions on private credit may be a sign of more trouble ahead, not just for the BDC company – which has been hammered since it stopped redemptions in a non-traded BDC due to problems with some of its software lending – but for private credit markets generally.
Today's show is all about digging into value, which often can be found in the scariest portions of the stock market.
Of late, nothing has been scarier than the wash-out in software stocks, but in the Market Call, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, says that the "massacre in the software space" has made it that the software sector is now a value priced sector for the first time in two decades. With a lot of software stocks with double-digit free cash flow yields, Peck says, making software "one of the most interesting areas of the market."
The software companies troubles have spilled over into the realm of business-development companies, many of which have made loans to software companies that, in theory, could be troubled if artificial intelligence replaces the need for software as a service. Behind the theory that software companies will struggle to pay debts as artificial intelligence renders their products less useful and attractive, there are been some scary, well-publicized issues with a few BDCs. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, digs into the math that is impacting the lenders and BDCs in general. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, shows how the headlines could be creating values that make the industry more attractive, not less, for investors who understand and measure the risk.
Plus, Columbia University finance professor Ehsan Ehsani discusses his new book, "Finding Value in Numbers: The Essential Investing Toolkit to Win on Wall Street," which helps investors follow value-oriented strategies in all market conditions.
Ed O'Gorman, chief executive and chief investment officer at River Wealth Advisors, says that despite headline risks, investors need to "participate, without being overexposed" to market forces, balancing risks and approaches. He notes that recent action indicates that the market is broadening out, highlighting that an equal-weighted approach recently has delivered better results and lower returns, a sign that it's a good time to diversify and rebalance portfolios into the face of the news cycle.
Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com and the co-founder of FinStream TV, dives into new research showing that household spending tends to decline modestly over the course of retirement, typically by small annual amounts that turn into big money over the decades of retirement. He has created a "Retirement Reality Check" that lets investors see for themselves how spending reductions -- the standard pattern, even if not conventional wisdom -- change the trajectories of retirement savings and spending.
With the "ETF of the Week,"Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, focuses on a large-cap value fund that in its three-plus year history has accumulated what may be the most accolades and honors of any fund, getting perfect marks from both Morningstar and Lipper, with a structure and management discipline that should lead to continued future success.
Plus, Emily Fanous discusses survey work she did for Credible.com study which found that 77% of Americans engaged last year in risky financial activities.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says money managers are moving from the market's racehorses to its sure-footed burros, saying it's a sign of "the very late stages of an up move or the beginning stages of the market starting to roll over." Kosar says the market has some room to correct and stay in bull market territory, but he thinks investors want to be cautious here until the rotation is complete. "I'm not saying doom and gloom and we';re done for the year," Kosar says, "but if you want to put on more risk ... this is a lousy place to do it." He's expecting a 5 to 7 percent move down, at which point the market will be much more attractive.
In the Market Call, deep-value investor Michael Campagna, co-founder and senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, discusses how the high levels of domestic stocks have him more interested in international investments, but he is finding plenty of opportunities around the globe,including, surprisingly, some that are derivative plays from the artificial-intelligence boom.
Plus, Chuck discusses the parts of Tuesday's State of the Union address that had him scratching his head about math and political processes, and digs into statements that were made about inflation, tariffs, Social Security, the level of promised foreign investments into the United States, the scope of fraud in government programs and more.
Economist Steven Durlauf, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, weighs in on the fallout from Friday's Supreme Court decision that the Trump Administration had exceeded its authority in declaring tariffs as being necessary under emergency conditions. While the move put an end to the previously announced tariffs, Durlauf discusses the uncertain benefits of the changes, noting that there are some monies that could flow back to consumers or prices that could decrease, but that most of the impacts will be more on the policy and economy fronts than to the pocketbooks of consumers and the coffers of businesses.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that technology investors could be headed for trouble as he expects the sector to roll over "and take several steps back," bogged down with more balance sheets showing an overload of debt. He notes that tech stocks have benefitted from momentum investing and buy-the-dips thinking, but if earnings slow down — as he expects — and off-balance sheet debts hit home, the sector will lag other parts of the market.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital says that he expects GDP numbers to come roaring back from last week's disappointment, noting that the 4%-plus growth he sees for much of the rest of the year is more than just recovering the gross domestic product lost late last year to the government shutdown. He does not expect that growth to be derailed by continuing trade-policy and tariff uncertainty, which reached new heights last week after the Supreme Court decision. Also in "The Week That Is," Vijay discusses his experience playing around on prediction markets and how that has led him to see that those platforms — which most see as a different form of gambling — will have real impacts on investment theory and strategy in the very near future.
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says the economy is strong and "not looking at a recession here," but that hot economy benefits cyclical stocks rather than the Magnificent Seven stocks, and that limits just how much the market can gain ground. With technology "set for a down year," the other areas of the market can't generate enough gains — even in a robust economy — to make 2026 positive. He also notes the market has been running in a "three year on, one year off" cycle, and he thinks that will impact tech companies this year." Torres still expects rate cuts and thinks any downturn will be relatively short lived and not too deep, but enough for where investors should adjust their expectations.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, sizes up the prospects for the first new IPO the closed-end fund industry has seen in several years, and from a surprising source. Robinhood markets, the investment platform, will launch next week Robinhood Ventures Fund I, a concentrated portfolio of private companies. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses the role private equities can play in a portfolio, as well as the challenges investors face in sizing up a fund with a net asset value entirely based on the "value" of illiquid shares that don't trade in public markets.
Billy Hensley, president of the National Endowment for Financial Education discusses the group's recent poll on how American adults view their financial well-being, which found that seven of eight respondents were feeling some form of financial stress as they entered the year, with more than three-quarters of all respondents having suffered a financial setback in 2025.
Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, says the economy has been dealing with historic and conflicting economic shocks, but if it can continue the current capital investment cycle and see the productivity gains promised by artificial intelligence, it should be able to remain resilient in pushing past wobbles and weakness. Daco, who currently serves as the president of the National Association for Business Economics, discusses his concerns that growing polarization between different consumers and businesses are increasing the fragility of what he calls "the A pillars of economic growth" — affluent consumers, A.I. investment and asset-price appreciation economic growth — and how that creates "pockets of risk" that could change the cycle.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into signs that the stock market has been broadening to make an equal-weight fund his ETF of the Week, noting that the balanced construction creates a very different take on the market than the traditional index fund covering the same ground.
Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, brings his "beat and replace" methodology back to the Market Call, discussing how secular change in industries and economies creates the upgrading opportunities he looks for.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says that February and March could be "banana peel months" for the stock market to slip on, but he's not expecting a significant downturn and he says the underpinnings for the stock market will keep the bull market running through at least the end of the year. Detrick noted that the market has sent some mixed messages — with about 20% of stocks making 52-week highs while 6% made 52-week lows just last week — but he says that a strong economy with a dovish Federal Reserve can overcome geopolitical concerns, creating an environment where investors should be "overweight equities, but diversified around the globe."
Dan Doonan, executive director for the National Institute on Retirement Savings, discusses their latest report, "Retirement in America: An Analysis of Retirement Preparedness Among Working-Age Americans," which has made headlines for suggesting that the average working American has less than $1,000 saved for retirement. Doonan is quick to back away from that number — because it includes the many Americans who have nothing saved and who aren't working to change that — but notes that while retirement balances are much higher for people who put in the effort, there remains a savings crisis in America.
Gil Baumgarten, founder and chief executive officer at Segment Wealth Management, brings his dividend-and-income focused approach to stock picking back to the Money Life Market Call.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says the intensity of competition in the artificial-intelligence business is setting up a path for big winners and losers, and he says that it's nearly time "to see a lot of the companies in the AI race fall out." Trainer cits cash flows turning negative, and says that accounting tricks have hidden much of the problem by allowing companies to keep some debts off of balance sheets. When focusing on what he calls the real debt level of the companies, Trainer says "the cash flow for these companies is highly negative and it cannot be sustained." Further, Trainer notes that with so much money committed to the development of A.I., there is no guarantee that the companies that get in trouble will find a market waiting to take them over once the financial troubles hit.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses how last week's software sell-off isn't changing his take on how "Software will eat the world," but it is a symptom of how the speed of development is amping up investor concerns about the A.I. revolution. He also discusses how and why the "Sell America" sentiment has been building, and why the Dow Jones Industrial Average — and not the Nasdaq Composite or the Standard & Poor's 500 — is leading the way for market gains early this year.
David Bach, author, "The Automatic Millionaire: A Powerful One-Step Plan to Live and Finish Rich," celebrates the revised, 20th anniversary edition of the book and the countless people it has helped by getting them started small towards long-term lifelong savings and living goals. Bach — who last appeared on Money Life a decade ago with the 10th-anniversary edition of the book — discusses how time and technology have changed, but how they also have helped savers reach their goals more easily.
Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner at Oxbow Advisors, says that he expects the market to be setting new highs but to challenge some serious lows, hurt by high valuations, current economic conditions and the election cycle. "This will not be a real strong year for the market, and if you make money, you will have to know where to invest and when to invest," Oakley says. He notes that he is more invested internationally in the last 18 months than he has been in years, due largely to lower valuations abroad, and he is also keeping some powder dry expecting better opportunities when the market gets shaken through patches of volatility.
Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that increases in default rates are more of a return to normal than a sign of trouble for business-development companies or the economy. Between a bankruptcy and fraud case like First Brands and softness in the software business, Oberbeck thinks that recent activity is more a hangover coming from a time of particularly low defaults, rather than a sign of something bad building up.
In the Market Call, Simon Lack, managing partner of SL Advisors — which oversees the American Energy Independence Index — talks about energy and energy infrastructure stocks, as well as how current events in Venezuela are likely to affect oil stocks and energy markets.
Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that many investors have staked their financial lives on the stock market continuing the kind of gains it has posted since the Great Financial Crisis nearly 20 years ago. He worries that that investors haven't saved for retirement or college tuition in a world where the market doesn't deliver something close to expectations; with that in mind — and in a world where valuations are stretched and concerns are abundant — he says investors need to prepare for uncertainty, and to decide how they would feel if the market tanks and what they could do to get more comfortable with the market's potential to peak and take a protracted turn for the worse.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits a fund with an options overlay strategy — one he picked as ETF of the Week in 2024 when it was new — and discusses the success investors have found with it.
Plus, Andrew Graham, founder and portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, returns to the Market Call to talk stocks.
Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, says that earnings growth will be the "defining driver" of market performance in 2026, and would be the factor to watch if you could only see one. PNC is forecasting earnings growth of nearly 15% this year, "which is darned good enough to keep the market rally engaged, even with valuations being a headwind." Agati notes that while there is a "purple haze of policy uncertainty" surrounding the market, she does not expect those concerns to derail the market, noting that accelerating earnings and economic growth should power through the headlines.
In the Market Call, Raymond Bridges, portfolio manager at the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF, brings his "aggressively cautious" approach to stocks, talking about where to be opportunistic now.
Emily Fanous discusses the IPX1031 annual Travel Outlook survey, which showed that 94% of Americans plan to travel this year — with more than 40% planning to travel more than they did a year ago — but a large chunk of them will have their memories of those trips stirred by lingering credit card or buy-now, pay-later bills.
Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment strategist at Cresset Capital, is expecting double-digit earnings for stocks generally — but only single-digit growth for the Mag 7 — and he says the broader market with moderate growth and strong economic stimulus should roll on. Ablin entered the year expecting " double-barrel stimulus" from tax refunds created by tax cuts and interest rate cuts, but now that the next Federal Reserve chairman has been selected and that he is more hawkish than expected, he sees fewer rate cuts and a market that is steady but not spectacular. One are that has been spectacular, gold, has Ablin on edge, as he says the precious metal "is telling us that, by the end of 2027, inflation will be 10 percent." He thinks that's too high, which is why he expects gold to correct.
Also expecting a correction is Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., who says the firm's proprietary Lowry Market Health Score is in "moderately strong territory" leaving "more to go in this bull market," and yet he makes it clear that after a few more weeks or months of the positive he "could see a pretty sizeable correction."
Sean Mullaney discusses his new book, "Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement," which helps workers decide when and how they can afford to pull the plug on their working career without waiting to full retirement age to do it.
Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer, at Zuma Wealth says it is understandable that investors are nervous with a lot of geopolitical worries and headlines on top of a market winning streak that can't go on forever, but she says that a strong earnings outlook, a healthy economy and the market's hot start to 2026 have her constructive and positive on the year ahead, expecting more good news without the negatives of recession or a bear market. She is urging clients to go back to basics to calm their nerves, noting that the market is going through a sharp rotation away from a few leaders to a broader outlook where investors will benefit from diversification and patience.
With Valentine's Day ahead this week, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, eschews the usual worrisome pick for The Danger Zone, and instead goes for something much sweeter, a home-building company that he says is particularly attractive now.
With jobs and inflation data on tap for this week — and the stock market coming off a big downturn in software stocks — Vijay Marolia discusses investors' nerves and how some might be letting headlines get in the way of good long-term buying opportunities in software, and whether they will be distracted by the jobs and inflation numbers released this week. Plus, he delves into "bets" versus "predictions" and more in "The Week That Is."
Plus, Chuck digs in deeper to his Super Bowl jinx -- the trend he has identified in companies that buy Super Bowl ads within seven years of their initial public offering -- to discuss which companies from Sunday's big game might be losers in the market moving forward.
Steven Dover, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton, says that while the economy generally looks positive, he sees it in a "rough spot, especially with those Mag 7 or A.I.-related stocks," which he said have gotten "way ahead of themselves." Dover, who also serves as head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, says he doesn't see an old-fashioned recession happening, but thinks there may be rolling recessions impacting specific industries and sectors. That could lead to a situation "where the average looks great but for a whole lot of people it isn't good," the K-shaped downturn that impacts people who are lacking assets the most.
Kyle Brown, chief executive officer at Trinity Capital, gives his outlook for the private credit and lending space, and notes that there could be some challenges for business development companies and private lenders late in the current economic cycle because returns from private credit generally have been declining. That has meant single-digit leveraged returns, Brown says, so "Investors are not happy." That, in turn, has led to redemptions in private funds and falling stock prices. Still, Brown says, that creates opportunities, which he sees being particularly abundant in the technology sector and amid continued capital expenditure spending.
Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which shows that on a short-term basis, the recent market moves against stocks and precious metals have reduced bullishness. Neutral sentiment is on the rise, and while the market still has a bullish bias, Rotblut says the change will be worth watching as the market digests current headlines.
Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that while the stock market has blown past multiple red flags and warning signs, investors should not be acting as if indicators like an inverted yield curve, events like war or tariffs, or a simple market winning streak are leading to some sort of fast market shift. Rather than getting caught up in the next news story, Ritholtz says to focus on diversification and common-sense long-term investing strategies, and he notes that for all of the reasons investors are nervous, he would focus on earnings, noting that if he had only one variable to look at to forecast the market's potential, it would be earnings. So long as that trend continues — and he expects it to — the market should keep gaining ground.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to emerging markets with his ETF of the Week, picking a classic, low-cost, long-term fund that he says can be a core holding for investors looking to increase foreign exposure.
Plus, Chuck discusses comments by Elon Musk suggesting that Americans really don't need to save for retirement any more. As ridiculous as that might sound, the principal Musk is relying on is called "universal high income," and it suggests that retirement savings won't be necessary because the abundance created by productivity gains created by artificial intelligence will make it so that all future material needs are easily met. While that outcome is possible, Chuck explains why you might still want to fund your Roth IRA for a while.
Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, worries that there may be "an upside CPI surprise" coming in the second half of the year, but he also says there is "the risk of upside economic surprises" now, evidenced in the market action, where he sees basic materials, energy and "things that come out of the ground" like commodities and oil leading the way. Those are assets that normally lead late in the economic cycle, and he expects them to stay strong through 2026. Weniger also discusses why President Trump's recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman has Wall Street scrambling with changing expectations and outlooks.
Chuck goes off the news with Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com, to discuss his recent piece on why "focusing on the break-even point" leads many Americans to make the wrong Social Security decision. Powell notes that break-even analysis is mostly used to formulate a bet on longevity, rather than focusing on the income and inflation-protection elements that Social Security is built to provide.
In the Book Interview, Becky Robison, author of "My Parents Are Dead: What Now? A Panic-Free Guide to the Practicalities of Death," discusses the challenges facing most people as they face, unprepared, the mortality of their parents. Robison discusses her own experience after the death of her parents which, she notes, was way different than what she was prepared for by years of watching tv and movies that had her expecting a neat, tidy and orderly process.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment officer at Manulife John Hancock Investments, says that she may be forced to believe her eyes and is whispering to investors "This time is different," which are famously described as the most dangerous words in investing. With leading economic indicators negative for 38 months, the long time when the yield curve was inverted, three months of negative job growth and more; all of those are supposed indicators of trouble and recession, but the difference has been that the market has overcome those concerns. Roland is encouraging investors to resist the urge to trade on political headlines, or to get caught up in "fear of missing out" and jumping into parts of the market that are moving more on sentiment than fundamentals. She says it is a back-to-basics market, where investors might want to look more toward bonds as a backstop to high valuations and headline-induced nervousness.
Brad Lamensdorf, portfolio manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF, says investors should be more nervous than they seem right now, because classic signs of trouble are building. Those factors include low money-market balances but high balances on margin accounts, suggesting that investors "are extremely aggressive and very, very off-balance here." Lamensdorf says that the market's current dividend yields and high prices make it the market "very, very expensive," at levels where some investors may feel they're not being rewarded for taking risk, a condition that is usually happening at times when bull markets are ending.
In the Market Call, Brian Huckstep, chief investment officer at Advyzon Investment Management, discusses ETFs and mutual funds, which structure he prefers and which parts of the market stand out to him now.
Mo Haghbin, managing director for strategic ETFs at ProShares says it's not unusual to have a strong equity market when there's accommodative central bank policy, and he's expecting that to continue even with the Fed under direction of new chairman nominee Kevin Warsh. Haghbin says "It's a little bit of a Goldilocks situation right now," with the next year being an environment that seems "just right," and therefore is not particularly vulnerable to a bear market or recession.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses spiking volatility that saw precious metals reach new highs before backing away from them, looks at mixed earnings results for four Big Tech names, and discusses the merger that Elon Musk is proposing for himself — combining SpaceX with xAI — and why the seemingly strange deal isn't actually weird.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, looks at a boutique mutual fund that on the surface looks decent but which he says holds too many dangerous stocks, which he thinks will turn three years of super-hot performance back into a long-term record of feast-or-famine results.
Plus, Chuck looks at the recently announced retirement of Will Danoff, manager of Fidelity's Contrafund since 1990, and how investors should evaluate their next response, a next move Chuck himself is considering as a shareholder in Danoff's hugely successful fund.
Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services, says that 2025 was a great year for the market, but that has the market priced to where investors should expect to capture earnings growth and interest income. "If earnings come in 10 to 15 percent and you get that but nothing else, that's still pretty good," Williams says. "If you get 4.5 to 5 percent on bonds — without much help from the Fed — that's not so bad either." It's about preparing for "less," rather than preparing for some sort of market nightmare, Williams says.
In The NAVigator segment, Nick Robinson, deputy head of global emerging market equities at Aberdeen Investments, discusses how the artificial intelligence wave that has pushed domestic stock markets to record highs is readily apparent around the world — including in countries that are not necessarily synonymous with technology — and that the capital expenditure wave should continue to power emerging markets, especially if foreign companies can monetize the potential gains created by AI. He also discusses how markets are weathering geopolitical events and why they can continue to overcome worrisome headlines.
In the Market Call, Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management — manager of the Zacks Earnings Consistent Portfolio, among other ETfs — talks about the shifts he is seeing now in the markets, but how a focus on persistent earnings can smooth out the ride of a nervous, high-growth market.
Chun Wang, senior analyst and portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the economy should perform well in 2026, with the mid-term election feeling more like a presidential election because fiscal and monetary policy should be aligned to prove something to voters, rather than the typical mid-term doldrums. Still, Wang believes that the wealth effect that has kept the economy out of a recession would be threatened by a market downturn, which means that a bear market would likely cause a recession. Wang says the near-term biggest macro risk is outside the U.S., most notably rising bond yields in Japan that, if they keep rising, "would cause a major disruption in this global risk rally."
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to small-caps this week, picking a Fidelity fund that takes a strategic, computer-driven, broadly diversified approach to the sector, providing moderately active management rather than the "significantly aggressive active management" that comes with a bottoms-up gunslinger picking stocks.
In the Market Call, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners, discusses his approach to stock picking, melding top-down macro analysis with thematic investing before finishing with a bottoms-up analysis to confirm his direction.
Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says the market entered the year "with some pretty nice tailwinds all hitting at the same time," which has the economy set up for growth that he thinks will push the stock market to its fourth straight year of double-digit gains. Ladner recognizes that the market is enjoying current conditions, but he doesn't see major risks as being high-probability events this year, and instead finds his discomfort and nervousness in riding along with the consensus that conditions are so good.
In the Book Interview, Danny Funt discusses "Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling, which looks at the evolution of the gaming industry to the detriment of most people attracted to it, and the worrisome methods that the industry's power players are using to bleed sports gamblers dry.
Jaime Seale discusses the Millennial Home Buyer Report for 2026 out from Clever Real Estate, which found that 40% of millennial home buyers say they 're desperate to buy a home this year, so much so that a high percentage of them would spend half or more of their monthly income on a home. That's bad financial math, which shows why so many feel the American Dream of home ownership is slipping away.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says he is watching but not worried about geopolitics, the interest rate environment and more because the current business cycle is strong enough to continue through the year. Levitt entered the year with a mindset of rebalancing and diversifying to take advantage of areas like international investments and small-caps that have been underweighted in portfolios, and he says foreign stocks should benefit all year from weaker dollar conditions. Dollar strength is one of four key market signals — corporate bond spreads, transportation stocks and inflation expectations are the others — that he is watching right now as gauges of continued market and economic strength.
Brian Moody, executive editor at Kelley Blue Book, discusses price trends among new cars — elevated, but stable — used cars and what consumers can do in an effort to get better prices no matter what they are buying. He also discusses Chuck's recent search for and purchase of a new car, and talks briefly about what he drives and why.
Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses how the January 2026 Beer Purchasers Index doesn't show an end to the "beer recession," he was seeing in the numbers last fall, but it does show that sales have started to pick up from levels that had gotten ugly. That resurgence — a forward- looking indicator since it measures the sale of beer that will be available to the public in several months — could be a sign that economic consumption could be up in 2026, a phenomenon not just limited to beer.
Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group, says the market is facing seven different headwinds, but that it has 10 tailwinds, all blowing to overcome potential troubles to where he expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to reach 8,500 this year. That would make 2026 the fourth consecutive year with double-digit market gains, but Leger is confident in his pick, noting that easing financial conditions — including a few more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve — should support economic re-acceleration to let the rally roll on.
Leger is not the only one who is optimistic, as the latest Business Conditions Survey, released today by the National Association for Business Conditions, showed that the nation's economists have mostly factored recession out of the picture for this year. While the economists do see potential overhangs from tariffs and other policies impacting business, they say that spending plans in their companies — but more broadly for the economy at large — should fuel continued growth.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is also optimistic for the future, coming off of the World Economic Summit at Davos — where he says the lesson was to keep watching geopolitics without over-reacting to them by overhauling your portfolio. Further, in "The Week That Is," he discusses how the market is reacting to feelings rather than fundamentals in the current earnings season, and how it's still not too late for investors to reconsider their commodities holdings, even after gold and silver popped again last week, with silver reaching fresh highs above $100.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts five different technology stocks — including Magnificent Seven member Meta Platforms and tech giant Oracle — in "The Danger Zone," noting that they have troubling balance sheets that have created significantly misleading stock valuations, which he says will not hold up once the market recognizes the potential for trouble.
Ted Benna, the father of the 401(k) -- who first recognized the potential in Section 401(k) of the tax code to boost retirement savings and who developed the first plan -- ax code, he recognized its potential and developed the first plan -- says that the Trump Administration's proposed plan to allow 401(k) savers to put some of their monies toward home down payments is a positive change that is overdue. He is not worried that the change will somehow endanger savers or widen the retirement crisis and notes that the change would make rules consistent across various types of tax-advantaged retirement accounts. Benna also discusses the Radish Plan, his new vision for how 401k plans can be used by employers to create incentives that boost employee-retention and productivity.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, reviews the key takeaways from his firm's fourth-quarter review of action in the closed-end fund industry, focusing on fund consolidation trends that have occurred in the middle of booming asset growth for the industry, as well as discount levels and whether narrowing discounts set up 2026 for more muted results.
A day after joining Chuck to discuss his new book "Your Perfect Portfolio: The Ultimate Guide to Using the World's Most Powerful Investment Strategies," Cullen Roche of the Discipline Funds puts his personal disciplines and preferred investment strategies to work talking ETFs in the Market Call.
Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, discusses the firm's outlook for 2026, noting that the market has rewarded the sellers of artificial intelligence technologies, but at some point the buyers of AI technology will "need to show material gains from those investments" to justify the spending and maintain AI profits. As a result, he is cautious on artificial intelligence and technology stocks, but he is positive on the market and says he expects to see strong opportunities in small-cap stocks and international plays, particularly in emerging markets.
Cullen Roche discusses his new book, "Your Perfect Portfolio: The Ultimate Guide to Using the World's Most Powerful Investment Strategies," which examines what it takes to apply some of the most famous investment strategies of all time to an individual investment portfolio, and what to expect for results. Roche, who is founder and chief investment officer of the Discipline Funds, also discusses why it is more important for investors to focus on "you" rather than on "perfect."
Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits a fund that he made the ETF of the Week last year to give it the honor again. Repeats are rare in ETF of the Week history, but results alone might deserve it here; the fund he picked — tied to cryptocurrency — has had three stellar calendar years and is already up more than 33 percent for the first few weeks of 2026.
Peter Chiappinelli, chief investment officer at Ballentine Partners says "When everyone is talking about a bubble, I sleep much, much better at night, because it means we're probably not in one." He makes the case that valuations are high — which could hold down potential earnings moving forward — but that they still justify the market action we have seen. He's cautiously optimistic that gains can continue, with his worry being the geopolitics, but he says the market has overcome plenty of exogenous shocks in recent years, and that recession risk is "almost nil" so that investors should expect volatility in which bad news is amplified but not turning conditions ugly.
Laks Ganapathi, chief executive officer, at Unicus Research — an independent short-only research firm — makes her debut in the Market Call, discussing the disciplines of short-selling and whether a long stock market rally fueled by just a few companies has left her with an abundance of potentially lagging companies to choose from.
Plus, Chuck talks about the changing life conditions — and then the monetary realities — that led him to make a big personal finance decision he never would have believed just a few weeks ago, replacing his old beater of a car with a new vehicle which he is leasing. Chuck's last new car purchase was nearly 40 years ago; he says that buying a used car to replace the old one made sense, until it didn't.
Alan Thomson, chief executive officer at Intervallum Technologies — which has developed a factor-rotation index based on evolving market conditions — says that the market's strong conditions are "durable," but that a "fragile" macro environment has created stresses. This makes for a "thin-ice state," where the market shows stability and could stay that way for the foreseeable future, but the underlying risks can not be ignored. He noted that should not put investors out of the market, but should instead have them aware that trouble is possible and to factor downside risk potential into their near-term outlook.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at the big start that the latest earnings season got off to last week thanks to some brand-name financial companies, and he talks about two companies that he thinks are must-watch news as earnings season transitions to more of the consumer and industrial names. He also discusses what he's looking for in companies from all industries to make sure they are staying on top of opportunities in the business world.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, put five different stocks in the Danger Zone this week, noting that he expects them all to miss earnings estimates because Wall Street has been listening to whisper numbers or allowing legal accounting tricks to artificially inflate the numbers.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about whether he can keep contributing to a Roth IRA now that he has retired.
Martin Pring, publisher of the InterMarket Review and chief investment strategist at Pring Turner Capital Group, says that "all measures of valuation ... are up in the stratosphere," which means the market is entering "a very dangerous period on a long-term basis." For now, however, Pring stressed that "trend trumps level," meaning that the valuations won't derail the market on their own, because the trend has remained to the upside. Still, he says that could happen soon, noting that the market has been climbing a big mountain during the current rally, but it is currently nearing "the death zone," where it runs out of oxygen.
Ryan Kimmel, fixed income allocation strategist on the macro allocation team at DoubleLine, discusses the dilemma investors are in as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics faces challenges in producing monthly employment figures, noting that the issues are more about declining survey participation than they are any sort of politicization of the numbers. Kimmel says lower response rates force the statisticians to rely on "imputed data," which then requires bigger, more dramatic revisions, which can reduce public trust in the numbers. He notes that the key number he is watching will be initial jobless claims; he currently pegs the probability of recession at 30 to 50 percent, but says it would go significantly higher if initial jobless claim trends shift higher.
Stephen Davis, closed-end fund product specialist at Nuveen, says that price returns exceeded net asset value (NAV) gains for closed-end funds in 2025, which means that discounts were narrowed. With those thinner discounts, it could be hard for that trend to continue in the new year. Still, Davis sees potential opportunities in municipal bond and senior loan funds in 2026.
Ben Cook, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Energy Transition Fund, says that the removal of Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro "will do little to change the global balance for the supply of crude oil" and says the situation is unlikely to have much price impact. He worries more about how tensions in Iran and the Middle East could impact markets if they take a turn for the worse. Cook also notes that government policies have changed investment prospects in classic energy companies compared to alternative energy developers and says he expects that trend to continue.
With the stock market again flirting with record highs, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to an actively managed large-cap fund as his "ETF of the Week," saying that the T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research fund can serve as an adjunct or replacement for a classic index fund in a portfolio, especially for investors hoping to gain an active edge.
Chip Lupo discusses the latest credit-card debt survey from WalletHub.com, which showed that nearly 40 percent of consumers expect to have more credit-card debt at the end of the year than they have now, with roughly the same percentage of Americans feeling like they will carry credit debts for the rest of their lives.
Plus, Chuck goes off the news on the request that the NCAA recently made to securities regulators to suspend "prediction markets," which are regulated differently from gambling — and are treated more like investments by law — but which have the potential to improperly influence outcomes, athletes and the investors/gamblers drawn to them.
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Asset Management, says that he expects the stock market to overcome the worries and concerns that could make for volatile times, en route to a fourth-straight year of double-digit gains in 2026. by the time the year is done. Haworth says his target for the Standard & Poor's 500 this year is 7,625, though he says he won't be surprised to see a double-digit decline somewhere along the way.
Doug Fleener, author of "Start With What If: Weekly Questions to Spark Immediate Change and Growth," talks about how taking a pause to ponder change, asking a simple what-if question and then making a decision can lead to fresh thinking and life changes by getting people past the habits, fears and mindsets that limit or impact their actions.
Plus Chuck discusses President Trump's proposal for capping credit card interest rates at 10 percent, a move the president wants in place by next week. Chuck says that however well-intentioned the idea is — and there has been bi-partisan legislation proposed for this kind of action in the last few years — there would be consequences beyond what shows up on a monthly account statement.
Warren Pierson, co-chief investment officer at Baird Funds, says that investors should be concerned with factors like rate cuts, the independence of the Federal Reserve, sticky inflation and more, but in spite of all of those factors, "We still see good value in the bond market ... and investors don't have to take a lot of risk to get that value." He discusses how to unlock that value and much more in the Big Interview.
On the stock market front, Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis and editor of the MarketWatch Options Trader, says he is bullish about stocks right now, with most technical indicators pointing upward. McMillan does expect the market to broaden out and says volatility may increase but so long as the VIX volatility index doesn't show too much stress, he thinks the rally can continue.
The Book Interview today makes a rare foray into fiction, as author Frank Hamlin discusses his novel, "Skinny Dipping at Low Tide: A Saga of Squeezed Shorts, Shattered Dreams, and Embarrassing Riches" The book, released today, is fashioned loosely on GameStop and other meme stock situations — Hamlin was working at GameStop when it became a popular meme stock — and delves into what happens on the inside of a company when its stock goes viral and the fortunes of investors seem disconnected from business operations and tied entirely to sentiment.
It's a wide-ranging day on the show, starting with "The Week That Is," where Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that while the latest Jobs Report showed that unemployment remained high, investors and observers should not worry as current levels represent nearly full employment, particularly at a time when people can hold jobs in new and different ways. That gives the Federal Reserve room to cut rates, Marolia says, especially if it is willing to settle for inflation running closer to 3 percent rather than pushing to get to its historical target of 2 percent. As a result, Marolia says investors have to prepare and invest for higher inflation, especially in an environment where tariffs are fueling economic growth, because no matter what happens with the tariff case in the Supreme Court or the inflation numbers ahead, prices will not be coming down.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, digs into artificial intelligence and how it is making classic stock-picking and fund-management techniques obsolete, because he believes it eliminates much of the edge a manager can gain by trading actively. He does agree with a recent interview with David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com who said that less is more when it comes to active management, but says that A.I. — and having the best possible A.I. — is now the big determinant of which strategies can win on Wall Street.
John Yoegel, author of "Real Estate Investing in Plain English. Definitions. Examples. Uses" discusses the real estate market and the ins and outs of buying income-producing properties as an alternative to stocks, bonds and cash.
And Chuck discusses the latest concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence after Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on Sunday against a Justice Department's investigation into his previous congressional testimony, and discusses how the allegations could impact outcomes in ways that go well beyond rate cuts.
Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research is expecting a modest year of gains for the stock market in 2026, and he says that would be better for investors because another year of double-digit gains — the fourth straight year at that level — has only happened one other time, as the Internet bubble of the late 1990s was inflating. Clissold said he expects 2026 to be a 6-7 year, to borrow from the popular meme with the kids, noting that it will be a decent return delivered after a good start to the year, a middle period of struggles and a strong finish.
Michele Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, says she expects the stock market — as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 — to have a flat year, with 7,000, a level barely higher than the market is at now, being roughly her high for the year. Within that flat year ahead, Schneider is expecting a rough go in terms of volatility; she also said that other indexes and sectors — most notably the small-cap Russell 2000, but also transportation, retail and biotechnology — represent opportunities to do better than the broad market in the year ahead.
Plus, Kimberly Flynn, president at XA Investments, discusses the just-launched XAI Interval Fund Credit Index, which tracks the performance of non-listed closed-end interval funds and tender offer funds in the alternative-credit space, and how having the benchmark should help investors as they look at adding private credit and other alternatives to their portfolios.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. discusses her outlook for 2026. where she expects to see a broadening out — with more than just the mega-cap names driving stocks higher — but says investors will "have to do homework" to make the right moves amid heightened volatility and instability. She discusses how 2025 was not as far away from expectations as many people think, why she doesn't see a recession ahead but worries that rate cuts and threats to Federal Reserve independence could change that, and discusses "the three C's of the artificial intelligence cycle," and how the economy has moved from creating AI to catalyzing it and now to cultivating how it can impact businesses and the economy.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a month-old actively managed liquid alternatives fund as his "ETF of the Week."
And in the Market Call, David Snowball, founder of MutualFundObserver.com looks at funds and ETFs and warns about many newfangled products like the one Rosenbluth recommended, advocating for investors to keep things more simple, arguing that "The best thing we can do is make a good plan, find reasonable managers, and walk away."
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he expects the stock market can produce another year of modest gains, without a recession, but he notes that his concerns are the potential for Federal Reserve policy mistakes and whether consumer spending can remain strong. He says the top two quintiles of consumers — the upper portion of a K-shaped recovery — are flush right now, and they make up about half of the economy's total spending and should be able to provide a tailwind that helps the market ride through any slowdown period.
George Schultze, founder of Schultze Asset Management — the author of "The Art of Vulture Investing" — discusses buying (or short-selling) distressed securities in current market conditions.
Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who felt her financial adviser was pushing her to make decisions that she thought were, at best, sub-optimal, and at worst a breach of financial responsibility. Chuck — who has written two books on choosing and working with financial advisers — thinks the problem is communications and expectations, which should make it straightforward to fix.
Jared Lou, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, says that the outlook for Venezuela and its place in the investment world has "dramatically changed" with the removal of president Nicholas Maduro. Lou noted that Venezuelan debt should be able to be restructured now, creating "a much better future than they had just a few days ago." Lou says emerging markets are well positioned for a big year in 2026, with continued dollar weakness also contributing to tailwinds.
WalletHub.com released its list of the "Best Credit Cards for 2026" today, and Chip Lupo, an analyst for the site, discusses not only some of the best deals but why consumers may want to be shopping for new credit cards now, even if they don't need one, noting that many credit deals have changed and improved. He says card users who fail to keep up with their perks and benefits will lose out and waste some of their credit dollars.
Cecilia Amo, founder of Amo Law Legacy Planning discusses how consumers who want to avoid estate planning may doom their families to problems with probate, lost assets and much more. At a time of year when many people are trying to improve their financial lives, she talks about how estate planning does not have to be difficult, and the peace of mind it provides.
Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says three consecutive years of stock market gains aren't going to come to a dead stop, but he does think the market's pace will slow down in 2026, where he has a target for the Standard & Poor's 500 of 7,150. Johnson expects a strong first quarter, but suggests investors might want to start building up cash for a pullback that could occur in the second or third quarter, noting that this market is "acting more like a light switch than a dimmer," meaning it will have on-off volatility rather than more gentle moves.
David Goerz, chief executive and chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, sees the market reaching a similar peak — he picked 7,200 on the S&P as his target — and also forecast a correction or downturn in the spring or early summer, but he says that the fundamentals behind his process suggest that small-caps and international stocks will be the areas that ultimately carry the market higher.
In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses how Venezuela — in the news due to the arrest of its president — should not be overlooked for its economic impact, despite being a frontier market, discusses how energy markets will sort out the issues there and talks about how capitalism continues to show its dominance over socialism.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to discuss his 10 forecasts for the year ahead, when he is expecting "a good, but not a great year" as the market navigates "a high-risk bull market." Doll, a Wall Street veteran who has been making annual forecasts and predictions for decades, says that every year has plenty of uncertainty, but he says it feels like there is more now. He's expecting positive economic growth, sticky inflation and earnings that are lower than analysts expect, which will put a cap on the market's ability to generate gains.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — reviews the forecasts he made a year ago for 2025, grading his wins and losses on everything from inflation levels and Treasury yields to discount levels and the performance of five funds he identified as potential buys.
Plus, Chuck talks about how investors are caught in a cyclone of emotions — suffering from higher inflation while benefiting from a stock market that has been defying gravity — and how a straightforward to-do list for the new year can provide more financial stability and clarity for 2026 and beyond.
Phil Rosen, co-founder of Opening Bell Daily, discusses his recent piece on "The 10 stocks Wall Street is most bullish on for 2026" — as well as the ones analysts think will underperform the most. These aren't his picks — in fact, Rosen is clear that they're not in his portfolio -- but instead they represent where analyst estimates are most disconnected from the current stock price; while that condition could mean the stocks are poised for take-off, it also means they could be particularly impacted by an earnings miss or any problem that shakes up analysts.
Justin deTray, managing director at Wealthspire Advisors, discusses how the biggest determinant of returns is investor behavior — managing loss aversion, recency bias, anchoring and other personality traps — rather than asset allocation, and what that means for how investors should re-position their holdings entering the new year.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits three of his "ETF of the Week" picks from 2025 to note which ones worked particularly well in terms of both performance but also in terms of attracting assets in a crowded ETF landscape. (Warning, one of these picks is a fund that can be labeled as "boring" due to its assets and investment style, but where returns are enviable compared to peers.)
Plus, Chuck talks about five ways he hopes to improve his life — the behaviors he wants to change or things he wants to get done — that will help him in 2026 but also, he believes, for all the rest of his years.
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research, says that investors may be expecting too much from the domestic stock market, which makes it more likely to disappoint them even if it delivers modest gains. He's more excited about the prospects of international stocks and the commodities market, where he says the values — relative to the domestic market — remain attractive and there is more room to run.
With year-end upon us, Chuck talks about some personal finance realizations he has made this year that have him adjusting his thinking for the future, to better balance money and happiness. He's discussing research which shows that how someone receives their income may be a bigger determinant in their happiness than how much money they have, and how financial security is not just about the number at the bottom of a net worth statement.
Plus, Stephen Akin, founder of Akin Investments brings his stock-picking mix of technical momentum indicators and fundamental analysis back to the Market Call.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that while artificial intelligence dominated the media landscape for moving the market in 2025, he says that monetary policy was a bigger story for investors, moving gold, silver, precious metals to much bigger gains. "Commodities told the story of 2025," Marolia said in "The Week That Is," and while he expects AI to continue to be a big story, he said investors should be paying more attention to gold and precious metals. Marolia also talks about the year ahead, one where he expects increased merger and acquisition activity, improvement for value stocks and small companies, a rebound in cryptocurrency and more.
Chuck talks about goals versus resolutions for the year ahead, advocating for having a personal system that helps provide focus on personal growth and progress so that you can make the most of the year ahead.
Plus, the show revisits a recent conversation with Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research,who said that the bull market after celebrating its third birthday is in a position to keep running and producing positive returns for longer. He's expecting a modest up year in 2026.
John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, relies on his massive stores of data to look ahead for 2026, and he foresees no recession, lower inflation and modest GDP growth for 2026, with less volatility due to the interest-rate picture but more market tension due to the global macro picture. Scott also discusses what he sees happening in the closed-end fund industry, and he selects five funds — including one that has been in the news recently for problems that raised its discount — that he's expecting big things from in the year ahead.
Long-time business journalist Allan Sloan — a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award, business journalism's highest honor — returns to the show to discuss his recent piece for Barron's in which he discussed his admiration for the way Michael and Susan Dell recently committed $6.25 billion of their own money to give 25 million kids $250 each to invest in mutual funds. But he doesn't like the mechanics of the new Trump accounts that are the vehicle for those young savers and he says their impact on changing lives will be much more limited than the hype is making it out to be.
Plus, Chuck talks about avoiding mistakes that result in financial punishments if not completed by year's end: failing to take required minimum distributions and failing to spend down dollars set aside in Flexible Spending Accounts. He cites Vanguard data showing that the RMD problem is much bigger than many people expect, and he suggests ways that heatlh-care savers can legally spend down their accounts while there is still time.
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, is a market veteran who wasn't allowed to make annual forecasts until this year, and he's starting with an outlier, calling for the Standard & Poor's 500 to lose about 7% in 2026. Sosnick says a key issue for the market is investor expectations which are now so high that "it's hard to outpace that." Sosnick doesn't think the market is going in the tank, but he says that if investors see it struggle and lose some of their "buy-the-dips" nerve, it will create headwinds that will be hard to overcome.
Travis Prentice, chief investment officer at Informed Momentum, brings his stylized investment methodology — which tries to find the stocks that are outperforming, but that also represent businesses that are improving — to the Market Call, and talks about where he is "finding the mo" now.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the year in exchange-traded funds, from the growth in the industry and the action in new funds to the emergence — thanks to new rules — of ETF share classes for established funds, a change that could be the defining story in the industry in 2026.
Gene Peroni, founder and president at Peroni Portfolio Advisors, expects a "broad-based, well-balanced market advance" with a number of sectors and themes doing well in 2026. Peroni expects the small- and mid-cap advance that we have seen late this year to become full-blown leadership in the new year, but he's not down on large-caps either, putting a target of 53,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year, which would represent roughly a 10 percent gain. He is concerned about heightened volatility, but does not see any oversized drawdowns in the offing.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to put his forecasts from a year ago up to scrutiny. In a long career on Wall Street, Doll has become known for making 10 annual predictions — and he will unveil his forecasts for 2026 on the first show of the new year — and it looked in the middle of 2025 that his picks were all going to be on the money. The end of the year put a wrench into those plans, but he explains why and where things turned.
Allison Hadley discusses a study done for Howdy.com based on a search that has been rising dramatically in popularity on Google, about "Is college worth it?" The survey found that holders of computer science degrees overwhelmingly felt that college was worth the expense, but a shrinking number of people think that degrees will be as valuable in the future, with many noting that artificial intelligence reduces the need for formal education.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, says 2026 will be a year in which valuations and fundamentals really matter, as the broad market will see more volatility and will have less momentum. After three straight years of gains around 20% annually, Jacobsen says investors will need to curb their enthusiasm and settle for gains that, at best, he thinks will only get to high single-digit levels. He says that valuations in large-cap stocks "have created too many vulnerabilities for us to really sleep well at night," which is why he favors international, small- and mid-cap stocks and value stocks for the year ahead.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the focus squarely on stock pickers in this week's Danger Zone, discussing the benefits — or more importantly the drawbacks, behind active management.
Plus, in "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, tells the tale of two tech stocks — one living through the best of times, another the worst of times — covers the evolving battle for content creators and distributors, and offers a holiday wish and suggestion for investors.
Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., sees "a lot of different parts of the U.S. economy that aren't working," and while the market and economy have overcome those concerns to this point — and may have the strength to keep that up — he is concerned about the potential for a fall and says investors need to be diversified properly to ride out the year ahead. "Diversification doesn't pay all the time," Schutte says, "but it often times makes up for all the costs that it has in periods where whatever you want to concentrate in actually doesn't work. And that's where I think diversification going forward is not only a risk management tool, but it's also a return enhancer." Schutte sees the market broadening out but delivering only modest gains, and says he is more concerned about recession than most experts, because many analysts and investors are so focused on the upside that they have missed warning signs.
Alessandro Valentini, fundamental portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management, says that the gains in foreign stock markets this year were not just about currency fluctuations and he believes there is more potential for growth in 2026 as concerns over tariffs continue to diminish, the dollar produces a smaller tailwind — or at least no resistance — and low valuations create more potential for upside.
Richard Stone, chief executive officer for The Association of Investment Companies — the British equivalent to the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses differences in the activist investor cultures in the United States and Great Britain, including how "venture capital trusts" — the British equivalent of business-development companies — have tax advantages that make private credit investing much more palatable, but also why interval funds (known in England as "long-term asset funds") are a model that has stirred some controversy with investors.
Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says valuations are at levels reminiscent of bubble days in 1999 and the crash era of 1929, but that's not scaring him out of a mix of domestic and foreign stocks, because economic conditions can support further growth. He does worry about a policy mistake or other event which could trigger a downturn, but so long as it stays mild and doesn't "lurch" to where it's a 40% drop, he thinks investors should be comfortable riding it out.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes an actively managed small-cap fund — the sister to an international fund he highlighted earlier this year — his ETF of the Week.
Plus, Thomas Cole, Co-Founder, Distillate Capital and the Distillate US Fundamental Stability Value ETF, brings his unique take on value investing to the Market Call.
Daniel Morris, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, is expecting the economy and the stock market to continue to roll forward in 2026 but says he would like to see "not such a great year," because his primary worry for the year ahead is "too much of a good thing" that leads the economy to overheat. If that occurs, Morris said, higher inflation and consumers' response to it could change conditions quickly. Morris thinks growth can be solid without going too far, delivering modest growth with volatility due more to conditions like geopolitics than market sentiment.
Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF — a fund-of-funds that invests in exchange-traded funds — discusses why his style favors momentum investing and gives his outlook on international stocks, gold, mega-caps and more in the Market Call.
Erika Rasure, chief financial wellness advisor for Beyond Finance discusses the site's 2025 holiday survey which found that nearly two-thirds of Americans feel cultural pressure to overspend, even as they face more financial challenges. That has left that same cohort of the country unsure of just how much it is "safe" to spend during the holiday season.
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says inflation is "stuck" at around 3% despite efforts to shrink it, leaving the Federal Reserve struggling with policy decisions as the Trump Administration positions current levels as acceptable. He's expecting the Fed to cut rates once in 2026, toward the middle of the year, and says the market seems accepting, or resigned, to that. As a result, however, he says this is not a time for "set it and forget it" investment styles in fixed income, noting that the opportunities are changing with the shape of the yield curve today.
Jeffrey Bierman, chief strategist at Genesis Cog and chief market technician for TheoTrade.com, says the market has already seen its Santa Claus rally, from the end of Thanksgiving to the end of last week, leaving little room for upside into the end of the year and into 2026. For the new year, Bierman sees a protracted period of sideways markets before things turn positive for the end of the year, but he says that leaves plenty of valuation-driven opportunities for patient investors now.
In the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president of Simply Safe Dividends, talks long-term dividend and income investing.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of fright, and what they are most afraid of is recession." But he says the current bull market not only doesn't need to be too worried about recession yet, he says that after celebrating its third birthday, it has gotten into the rarified air of a market that can keep running and producing positive results for longer. While he is not expecting a big, double-digit year in 2026 for the stock market, he says modest gains — tempered by heightened volatility and a downturn or two to overcome — are likely.
In "The Danger Zone," David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits three past picks that outperformed as shorts but which then got the actual benefits of "stupid money risk" — something he discusses nearly every week on the show — as they were bought out by private equity firms in deals that bailed out some shareholders, but which says will not be enough to save bad businesses.
Plus, Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is back with "The Week That Is," digging further into the Warner Brothers Discovery buyout, discussing whether a selloff last week might be a sign that investors are getting weary and may bail out before Santa Claus comes for a rally, and looks at the potential for a SpaceX initial public offering in 2026, which might be the biggest IPO in history.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that history has shown that nearly every new Federal Reserve chairman does "something dumb" when they first get the job. With Jerome Powell soon to be out as Fed chair, Doty says the central bank is in a tricky place, where it could make a cut before the change and have the next chairman come in anxious to cut further, making a policy mistake that hurts the market, but creates buying opportunities for investors willing to ride it out.
He's not the only one on today's show fearful of a Fed mistake, as that is the nightmare scenario for Dustin Reid, chief investment strategist at Mackenzie Investments, who says in the Big Interview that the economy has gotten to a point where further moves forward may have some negative impacts, hurting credit markets, raising more potential for a downturn and recession and, generally, not providing the classic economic boosts that frequently drive the markets higher.
In the "Talking Technicals" interview, Gregory Harmon, president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says he is expecting a small-cap rally to lead the market higher into year-end, and he says that the large-cap stocks — as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 — will follow suit, and that the question will be whether the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite comes along for the ride. "Technicals are all pointing higher, earnings are doing fantastic," Harmon says, noting that it would take "an unexpected crisis" to derail the underlying trends pointing "strongly to the upside" right now.
Plus, Chuck discusses a visit to the bank to grab some cash that was met with an unusual question from a teller, a query that he says is a reason why consumers may want to have more face-to-face relationships with financial advisers of all stripes, rather than doing everything online.
Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., now 92 years old and having cemented a track record as one of the best bond fund managers ever, says he's not concerned about a recession because the economy is strong, and in some ways stronger than its ever been during his investing lifetime, but he also compares current times to the late 1930s, a period when geopolitics were dominating the global scene building up to World War II, and says that he is more concerned with those macro-level worries than he has been in his career.
Fuss notes that the global scene is more important to what happens next with the U.S. economy than even what the Federal Reserve does, and he quells concerns over pressure on the Fed to cut rates by noting that "every president" wants the central bank to lower interest rates.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Victory Shares Free Cash Flow Growth ETF his "ETF of the Week," noting that it's a relatively new fund focused on quality that has outperformed the market since its debut in 2024. Rosenbluth said the quality focus should give investors some calm if they continue to pursue growth in a market that he thinks will be facing increased volatility in 2026.
Plus, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on Wednesday, Chuck weighs in on what he thinks might happen next and why he worries that interest rate cuts not only won't impact the market as they have in the past but have some potential to hurt the economy at least as much as they could help it if rate reductions continue in the future.
Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors, says that "gold's run is not over," and while he thinks it could easily reach $5,000 an ounce in the short order, he says "It's not inconceivable that within the next half-decade, gold could be sitting at $10,000 an ounce." (Gold is currently trading at roughly $4,225 an ounce.) He also says he expects the Federal Reserve to reach a point in the next 12 to 24 months where it lives "with a new normal of inflation" and resets its target inflation rate to reflect different thinking, which will mean consumers and investors have to adjust to inflation rates running at 3 percent or higher for the foreseeable future.
Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group discusses the company's Christmas Price Index, which looks at the current cost of giving your true love all of the gifts from the "12 Days of Christmas." Thanks to higher prices with gold -- and the five golden rings -- it's no surprise that the rate of inflation shown in the company's 42nd annual holiday index is higher than inflation generally.
Plus, in a market that has been driven to near record levels on the strength of corporate earnings, Nick Raich, chief executive officer of The Earnings Scout, returns to the show for the first time since 2020, talking about his earnings-centric methodology and his expectations for continued earnings growth for the market.
Scott Brown, Chief Strategist at Brown Technical Insights, is wondering "if the market is sniffing out something," because he has seen a change in the last month on the sectors that are now leading the way forward, and it's not the same things that were leading just a few months ago. Brown notes that banks, transportation, global materials, steel and copper stocks are among the areas that now have taken market leadership, and he says that "there's real upside" to where they can drive the market close to a level of 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 by year's end.
A day after discussing the market broadly, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, returns to the show to discuss the Almanac itself for 2026, noting how the old technology of an almanac still has a place in helping to shape forecasts and expectations because it is built on decades of data that remains relevant, even in a world seemingly dominated by the changing technologies of artificial intelligence.
David Rosenstrock, director of investments and financial planning at Wharton Wealth Planning, discusses his approach to mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, says that artificial intelligence is creating a "super boom," because it's a "culturally-enabling, paradigm-shifting technology," which he says can drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 62,000 — up about 30% from current levels — in just a few years. Hirsch, also the chief executive of Hirsch Holdings, also discusses calendar and seasonal impacts on the market and how he expects a Santa Claus rally this year, but what it means if the market misses out.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, debuts as Money Life's newest regular in a segment called "The Week That Is," which provides one takeway from the market and economic news of the week just finished, the thing to watch out for in the week ahead and one take looking further forward. This week, Vijay focuses on the Netflix-Warner Brothers Discovery deal, how precious metals will respond to a rate cut and move forward and what parents should consider about the new Trump Accounts saving for children.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, circles back on Lyft Inc., the rideshare company that he first singled out as it was in its IPO phase in 2019. The stock is up more than 70 percent year-to-date, but it has lost more than three-quarters of its value since it was launched. Trainer says this year's gains are simply setting up the next fall for a company that is burning cash and that carries a negative economic book value.
Rachel Perez discusses the results of a survey done for Rula Health, which showed that 75% of Americans say the cost of holiday gifts stresses them out, but also stresses their budget, with the average American overspending their plan by $261.
Brandon Thurber, chief market strategist at Regions Asset Management, says climbing the proverbial wall of worry has "supercharged the market," making it hard "to find reasons to be anything less than positive and constructive for 2026." While he worries that the message could be that "The only thing you have to fear is fear itself" — and he describes in The Big Interview the real fears that he feels could blossom into problems — he doesn't expect conditions to change much from 2025, and is mostly encouraged about domestic and international markets.
Ken Berman, strategist at Gorilla Trades, says that he'd be foolish to say that now is a great time to buy after three strong years, but he believes the path of least resistance for the market is to go higher, and that's what he thinks will carry the current rally well into the new year. Like Thurber, Berman says he wouldn't want to get in the way of the market right now, and makes it clear that while there are reasons to be nervous he "wouldn't want to be short here."
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, looks at tax-loss selling season and whether it has started yet, noting that a few asset classes have largely been able to avoid situations where there will be widespread harvesting this year, while others — most notably business-development companies — may be poised for a lot of tax-driven reshuffling before year's end. Scott also answers some questions on the value of tax-loss harvesting if it means selling a fund you like, and how he recognizes yield traps and spots big discounts that are poor buying opportunities.
Joel Litman, founder/chief investment officer at Altimetry Research, says that investor worries about valuations are overblown because "good data" shows that current conditions are more like the mid-1990s — the middle of a bull market — than 2000 when the Internet bubble burst. He says in the Market Call that with real core earnings growing for a lot of companies, valuations are still reasonable, which is why he says current conditions make for a screaming bull market with several years where it can keep running before investors should get worried and nervous.
Brad Neuman, senior vice president/director of market strategy for Alger, says in The Big Interview that if technology spending in artificial intelligence had been removed, the economy would have gone through a recession in the first half of the year, but that also means that a lot of the pressures from a downturn have passed. With the AI boom in "the very early innings," he sees the economy strengthening next year bringing the stock market to higher levels with it.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a tactical play with a new, actively managed corporate bond fund from a brand-name money manager as his ETF of the Week.
Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says he expects inflation to rise to roughly 3.2 percent early in 2026, and says that increase — a long-awaited after-effect of tariffs — to mute the impact of interest rate cuts and other policies. Still, he stopped short of calling for a recession, noting that he thinks the market can overcome extremely high valuations to move forward modestly. He does think the economy may be moving into a period where it supports flat or slow growth for several years, but said it can avoid a crash or a bubble popping if it can avoid nightmare scenarios that he says currently look more hypothetical than threatening.
Kerry Pechter, editor and publisher at Retirement Income Journal, discusses his recent piece on what he calls "The Private Credit Instability Hypothesis," which looks at how the growing popularity of private-credit investments could be setting up a future fall akin to the subprime mortgage situation that presaged the Great Financial Crisis. Pechter is concerned that insurance companies — buying private credit to generate higher returns on annuities — will wind up holding the bag on bad paper if there is a breakdown in private-credit markets, and he believes that private credit markets will keep expanding and experiencing more demand up until the point "when something breaks."
Vicken Yegparian, executive vice president at Stack's Bowers Galleries, discusses the upcoming auction of an 1804 coin — considered to be "the king of the dollars" — that stunned coin collectors because it involves the 16th version of a coin where only 15 copies were known to exist. He explains how the coin was authenticated and why it may draw more than $5 million on the auction block.
Indrani De, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell, says that there are tailwinds in place — from currency fluctuations, valuations and geopolitical changes — that make developed markets outside of the United States look particularly promising for next year. She says in The Big Interview that correlations between domestic and international markets have been greatly reduced in the last two years, which raises the benefits of diversification, and she suggests that spreading money around will pay off in both returns and in lowering portfolio risk, particularly if spending and investing in artificial intelligence slows and stops masking other market weakness.
David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Prudential, discusses the firm's 2025 Global Retirement Pulse Survey, which showed that mass affluent investors around the world feel ready for retirement, but that — perhaps because of their wealth — they haven't actually taken action to ensure that they're properly prepared. This lack of preparation means they haven't secured dependable income for life, nor have they adequately protected their nest eggs against downturns and market changes.
That study shows that many investors could use a financial blueprint, and today's show covers that idea too, with Jeff Panik, author of "Your Future Is Now: Your Blueprint for Solving Your Retirement Puzzle." In the Book Interview, he discusses how investors who have amassed money without a plan can implement one around and with the investments they have made, and that planning does not require a complete overhaul. But even as they start to plan, Panik says every investor needs to take a "Financial Life Inventory," which goes beyond calculating net worth to take a complete picture of a person's financial situation.
Sonia Fraher, head of cash management at Vanguard says that while nearly three-quarters of Americans say they will fall short of their saving and spending resolutions for this year, most are optimistic that they can pull off a "resolution rebound" in 2026. Vanguard's survey research showed that 84 percent of Americans expect to make a financial resolution for 2026, with building the emergency fund being the most common goal.
In honor of the holidays, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits the Damger Zone pick he is most thankful for this year, due to its success as a short pick.
Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning for Charles Schwab, discusses the firm's research showing that two-thirds of Americans believe they must look beyond traditional investment products like stocks and bonds to further diversify and succeed in today's market. More than 40 percent think the classic 60/40 portfolio is outdated.
Plus, Jake Cousineau, author of "Face Your Financial Fears: The Simple Guide to Fixing Your Relationship with Money," discusses how Americans grow up surrounded by money misconceptions that they must overcome to reach their goals.
It's a day for talking smart holiday shopping, and the show takes that focus to the investment world.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — is back on Black Friday for the fourth straight year looking for big discounts among closed-end fund, and he's got several names that might work for investors looking to make portfolio changes before year's end. He offers up two ideas for municipal-bond funds, two business-development companies and two direct offerings that the market has put on sale and that investors might want to consider wrapping up for their portfolios.
Sarah Foster, economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's 2025 Holiday Essentials Index, which found that more than 75% of holiday staples have gotten more expensive since September 2024, which may mean that what is coming home for the holidays this year is inflation.
Erik Beguin, founder, Fort Knox Bank, discusses how consumers who think they are protected by one-time codes and changing passwords are still vulnerable to thieves, and he discusses how high-security savings accounts can shore up the defenses without taking much away from yields.
Plus, Chuck helps you complete the holiday shopping for the kids without going to the mall, by talking about how you can use small amounts of money to buy fractional shares of your favorite stocks to create a portfolio that will have a long-lasting impact rather than the fleeting adrenaline rush that comes from opening a present. He discusses how he set up portfolios for his children decades ago and how he is arranging portfolios for his baby grandson and for two great nephews.
Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that he expects stock market volatility to increase, especially as the Federal Reserve makes fewer cuts than observers are hoping for, but he doesn't see "a worrisome correction, I just see market testing." Those tests will break some trends in sectors and industries, but shouldn't break the market's ability to post modest gains.
In honor of the Thanksgiving holiday being the real start of the holiday shopping season, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a retail-themed fund as his "ETF of the Week."
Sara Enright, senior director of safety and sustainability at Consumer Reports, discusses CR's recently proposed homeowners insurance bill of rights, and points out some of the basics that consumers should know -- but typically don't -- about their policies that insurers often don't disclose because rules don't force them to speak up.
Plus, Chuck talks about some things he is thankful for this Thanksgiving, noting that he has had a change in his own attitudes about money, driven by his age, experience, the deaths this year of two people he talked money with and more.
Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, says the stock market has high valuations, but notes that it lacks the excessive economic risk-taking and the fear-of-missing-out sentiment that are necessary to create true bubble conditions. But she notes that avoiding a bubble doesn;t mean it's smooth sailing ahead, as she says in Empower's outlook for 2026 that she expects anemic job growth to be a primary economic story. That jobs picture puts the Federal Reserve "between a rock and a hard place and maybe a third hard place," with the labor market making it tough for the central bank to cut rates. As a result, she's suggesting that investors rebalance portfolios, downplay their expectations and anticipate heightened volatility.
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that the market currently is going through a rotation to where "Right now, defense is the play," with money moving to health care, utilities and consumer staples, all defensive sectors. He is expecting the next six to eight weeks to be frothy and to determine whether the recent move away from highs is a blip or a real correction, but he warns that the upside for the Standard and Poor's 500 is "littered with resistance," and "the ease of movement seems to be to the downside."
Plus, in the market Call, Dom Rizzo, portfolio manager for the T. Rowe Price Technology ETF and the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund talks about how he looks for linchpin technologies in growth markets, with improving fundamentals and, hopefully, reasonable valuations, and just how he determines who makes that grade now.
Amar Reganti, fixed income strategist at the Hartford Funds, says "The uncertainty is real," over the potential not only for what the Federal Reserve could do but how the market and economy will respond to whatever decision gets made. Reganti says investors are facing the prospect of rate cuts spurring higher inflation, but a lack of action resulting in a tougher employment market and that both outcomes could make things a lot scarier and nerve-wracking than they are now.
Rachel Perez discusses a BestMoney.com survey showing two-thirds of consumers say they lose more money paying annual fees on credit cards than they gain from the benefits and perks on those premium cards.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts meals-delivery company DoorDash back into the Danger Zone, noting that recent strong results and a big bounce in the price are masking the real trouble that still exists in the balance sheet and that will eventually result in a much lower share price for the stock.
In the Market Call, Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Barrack Yard Advisors, explains why he puts much of his focus and emphasis on companies that can "Show me the cash."
Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says the stock market is facing a trifecta of bear-market risks that could lead to "one of the great bear markets of our lifetime," with losses surpassing 40 percent and lasting for as long as 18 months when it finally bursts. Despite that, he says there are ways to "invest through it," and that's precisely what he is doing, because despite bubble conditions, there are pockets of value and there could still be a lot of market upside until the inevitable pop of this balloon.
But the talk starts today with an interview recorded at Wednesday's Active Investment Company Alliance Fall Round Table in New York City, with David Tepper of Tepper Capital Management revisiting past selections of some classic funds he has held for years and their prospects for the future, plus his outlook on the potential dangers of private credit, what he is worried about if the economy turns and more.
Charles Rotblut, vice president of the American Association of Individual Investors, discusses the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, which showed that bearish sentiment was actually decreasing as the market pulled back from record highs, and how high levels of bearish sentiment — which the market has seen for the last year — are part of what lets Wall Street climb the proverbial "Wall of Worry."
In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners, talks about how he goes about finding "unappreciated quality" at a time when the market itself has appreciated to near record levels.
Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners — manager of the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund — says that it's the "bottom of the first or, maybe, bottom of the second inning with respect to how tariffs will play out," but he notes that emerging markets companies have pushed higher prices back on U.S. consumers, which means the story has a lot of twists and turns left to navigate. Foster also says that domestic investors want to use emerging markets -- and foreign currencies -- to diversify portfolios against what lies ahead, noting that over-exposure to the dollar may lead to greater volatility and risk ahead.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, heads to the utilities sector and a long-time established fund for his ETF of the Week.
The second half of today's show is interviews from Wednesday's Fall Round Table for the Active Investment Company Alliance, which Chuck attended and spoke at in New York City. The conversation starts with Ryan Paylor, portfolio manager at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors, which recently converted a closed-end fund from a focus on companies located in the Caribbean Basin — it was ticker Symbol CUBA — to one focused on collateralized loan obligations. Paylor explains the thinking behind the move and how shareholders reacted to such a drastic makeover.
Then, long-time activist investor Phil Goldstein of Bulldog Investors discusses the state of shareholder activism and why there seems to be so much less of it than there was just a few years back. Some of the change is good news for consumers — better fund management — while other reasons make it harder for activist moves to succeed.
David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, says that as artificial intelligence become less of an economic focus, the market will wake up to potential weakness on Main Street, where "recessionary patterns" are already visible. He is expecting "one of the weaker holiday seasons in a while," and says that a lot of signs that have been viewed as bullish have become much more questionable. He would not be surprised to see the market test October lows — roughly 6,550 on the Standard & Poor's 500 — before year's end.
Nate Miles, head of retirement at Allspring Global Investments, discusses the firm's 2025 Retirement Study, which showed that only six in 10 retirees and near-retirees feel financially secure, a significant decline from just a year ago. The study also showed that investors — who have embraced target-date funds and life-cycle funds as a primary savings option — are looking for more personally tailored investment and retirement-spending solutions.
In the Market Call, absolute-value manager Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund — who has a history of holding cash when the stock market is highly valued — says that a market flirting with record highs is not discouraging him, as he is fully invested, noting that he is not struggling to find individual stocks that are underpriced and that have a likely catalyst to unlock growth.
Joe Quinlan, head of market strategy for Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private Bank, says that the U.S. consumer higher-income households "are in great shape heading into 2026," and so long as the Boomers continue spending, the economy and stock market can roll along. Quinlan says that the economy can avoid a recession if the Federal Reserve can avoid policy mistakes, if the U.S. stays out of a difficult trade war and if the extraneous factors mostly stay at bay. Given what the market has weathered in 2025, Quinlan says there is reason to believe the rally can continue, even if results are muted a bit compared to the equity returns of the last three years.
Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, says that investors should not be fighting current trends, but they should be getting cautious in a market where there's not a lot of upside left this year. He expects January to be a telling month for whether the rally can carry deep into 2026, and says that investors looking for bigger gains can still get in on the gold rally, which Vermeulen says still has 25 to 30 percent upside from current levels.
Sandra Block, contributing editor at Kiplinger talks about what she learned about dental care for retirees as she made her own transition toward retirement earlier this year, and the choices consumers face as they weigh Medicare options.
And Mark Hamrick discusses a recent BankRate.com survey which found that about half of working American adults expect to be reliant on Social Security benefits to handle necessary expenses when they retire, but more than three-quarters of that working population worries that their promised benefits won't be paid when they reach retirement age.
Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist for the Americas at BlackRock, says the market's recent action represents "a fairly healthy pullback," the kind of periodic "cleansing" that markets go through, and that the recent action is less based on whether earnings can continue to drive valuations higher than it is on nervousness over the Federal Reserve's next move. Chaudhuri says that the current focus on whether the Fed will cut rates again in December is misplaced, because continued earnings growth, gross domestic product numbers and the fundamentals of the stock and bond markets will do more to determine how long the bull market lasts. That long view also coincides with BlackRock's latest "People and Money Survey," which Chaudhuri noted showed that staying invested long-term and riding out markets rewards investors more than trying to time markets.
David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs, says that agentive artificial intelligence has advanced to where it can provide investors with a real edge when it comes to choosing superior stocks and funds, and he warns that people who don't adopt AI for at least a part of their portfolio will be dooming themselves to below-average returns. He also explains how these forms of AI are different from the ones that are known for giving bad answers to personal-finance questions, which Chuck discussed on the show last week with Robert Farrington of The College Investor.
Plus, Peter Krull, director of sustainable investing at Earth Equity Advisors, returns to the show after his recent appearance in the Market Call to discuss his new book, "The Sustainable Investor: Responsible, Impactful, and Values-Driven Investing Strategies and Practices for Financial Professionals." Krull discusses past, current and future forms of "responsible investing."
Buck Klintworth, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market isn't looking like it will make dramatic moves before the end of the year, but he does expect a "small correction." Because he believes that the underpinnings for the economy are solid and forces like the artificial intelligence boom are backstopping the market, he expects that correction to be a buying opportunity for investors.
Tani Fukui, senior director for global economic and market strategy for MetLife Investment Management, says she expects the Federal Reserve to follow through with rate cuts — even as the market seemed to waver in its confidence in cuts on Thursday — and that the move and the coming rate-cut cycle will help the U.S. economy avoid a recession.
Josh Duitz, global head of income for Aberdeen — manager of the Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund — talks about where he is finding success in generating elevated income at a time when rate cuts are making it harder for investors to earn easy yields. Duitz discusses international investing and whether the rally overseas can continue in the face of reduced currency impacts, where high-flyers like the Magnificent Seven stocks fit in with his portfolio (or don't), and which sectors he is finding most attractive right now.
Beth Pinsker, financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, discusses her recent piece on what the release of new tax brackets for 2026 means for investors who are considering Roth IRA conversions. Pinsker notes that the bracket changes will change the math, especially for people who were on the fence about whether a conversion could be worthwhile.
Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, posed 100 personal finance questions to Google AI and came away with 37 "misleading or inaccurate" answers, and while that sounds horrible, it actually represents an improvement of six percentage points over the results Farrington got making the same queries a year ago. Farrington notes that the outcomes are only as good as the inputs, meaning that consumers who don't know the right questions to ask will be more poorly served by artificial intelligence than those who know enough to ask solid questions.
Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, discusses "Retirement Throughout the Ages: The American Middle Class," which showed that U.S. adults earning between $50,000 and $199,999 annually are struggling to stay afloat and get ahead when it comes to retirement planning.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to mid-cap stocks with momentum as he makes an offering from Invesco his ETF of the Week.
Plus, Chuck tackles the subject of 50-year mortgages and how the real problem with the idea may be more on how it addresses housing affordability — or not — rather than the massive amounts of extra interest paid over the life of the ultra-long loans.
Stephanie Guild, chief investment officer at Robinhood, says that the stock market has ridden earnings growth to the record highs it has set this year, but she is worried that with valuations at high levels, earnings growth can't sustain higher price-earnings multiple to push the market up further. Guild notes that Robinhood's customers have changed some of their investment habits as market conditions have evolved in the post-Covid market; they're still buying dips, but more on a single-name basis rather than buying broad markets and riding indexes. Further, Guild says she will be watching investor buying behavior during dips to see if there is a fatigue point where their nerves about possible downturns make it that each decline no longer appears to clients like a buying opportunity.
Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's 2025 Household Debt Survey, which showed that high inflation is contributing to rising debt levels in nearly 60% of American households, where more than two in five respondents expect household debt levels to increase in the next 12 months.
Plus, Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, brings his stock-evaluation system to the Market Call.
Matthew Timpane, senior market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, says the stock market is entering "the most bullish season of the year," and the bears missed the chance for a big pullback once the market got past mid-October. Now he expects the market to grind higher for the rest of the year, but he notes that things may change once the holiday buzz changes and 2026 moves forward.
Stuart Katz, chief investment officer at Robertson Stephens, says that rate cuts will make cash less attractive, which will push a lot of money that has been on the sidelines up the risk spectrum, and he discusses the areas of the bond market that he thinks are poised to benefit from that moving money, as well as the market sectors that he thinks will have leadership in a market that will be up against slowing economic activity.
In the Market Call, Peter Krull, director of sustainable investing, for Earth Equity Advisors — author of the new book, "The Sustainable Investor: Responsible, Impactful, and Values-Driven Investing Strategies and Practices for Financial Professionals" — talks about investing within one's values ad how he decides which stocks make that cut for him
Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs several commodity specific ETFs, like the Teucrium Soybean fund — says that while tariffs are being blamed for high prices for goods like coffee, cocoa, beef and more, it's actually the weather and long droughts in certain key growing areas that have steadily increased prices over several years. Still, Gilberties says tariffs have had an undeniable impact, some of it negative — with trading partners losing trust in the United States — some of it positive, because commodities are still moving around world markets. He says that investors who can stomach the volatility should be leaning into the headlines for opportunities, rather than fearing bad news impacts.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that tech giants are using mountains of cash to develop and build opportunities in artificial intelligence, but he notes that such huge spending can't go on forever while waiting for the payoff, and he identifies Amazon, Meta and Oracle as three of the big players who may not have the capital to win what he calls "the A.I. arms race."
In the Market Call, Mark Travis, president and chief executive officer at Intrepid Capital Management, talks about how he looks "for businesses that people need" — like beer, shoes and underwear — but at the right price and discounted cash flow to be consistent, long-term gainers.
Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that market flirting with record highs has masked how many companies are actually reaching new lows, but that condition — when new lows outnumber new highs — is a key part of an indicator called the "Hindenburg Omen," a sign that historically shows up in the charts at market tops. It's been seen on the market four times in the last week, along with a similar indicator called the "Titanic Syndrome." Those are warning signs, McClellan says, but even if the rally continues for a while longer, he's expecting struggles in 2026 before a rebound in 2027.
Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macro, discusses the struggles he sees for the economy right now, noting that many of the numbers that purport to show strength are not as clear or powerful as they seem. As a result, he thinks "we're in a slow-growth phase for the economy, and that's likely to persist at least for the next six months."
Plus, in the NAVigator segment, Seth Brufsky, chief executive officer for the Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund, talks about how the start of rate cuts and a falling interest rate environment impacts high-yield bonds, leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations, noting that rate-cut times are where active managers can show their mettle by making moves that outperform passive strategies in delivering high current income levels.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says he wouldn't mind a small market setback or breather to calm the nerves, especially because he's used those kinds of moments this year to add to his equity positions, noting that his target for the Standard & Poor's 500 is 7,500 at the end of 2026, a modest but steady gain for next year. Wren favors financials currently for technical reasons, likes industrials for as long as the next decade, and made the strong case for utilities and energy providers as being the growth story for the next quarter century.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi changes things up with the ETF of the Week. Rather than focusing on one fund, he looks at ETF in-flows, which have surpassed a big landmark and will break records for the year. He looks at where all of that money has been flowing, which categories and funds have been the most popular and emerging and more.
Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds — who was on the show last week doing the Market Call — returns to discuss his new book, "Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking," which in some ways equates deep-value investing to fighting a battle, but which also helps to explain why the investment style resonates with many individual investors.
Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says "people are only going to pay so much for this market," which means that something besides price will have to attract continued investment. That source will be earnings, as Ceci says that strong earnings growth has powered the market this year and will carry it for as long as they stay strong. Ceci says the economy and market will get a boost moving forward from tax policies, the rate-cutting cycle, continued AI capital spending and more, which is keeping the risk of recession low for the next year.
Wayne Park, chief executive officer at Manulife John Hancock Retirement, discusses the firm's inaugural Longevity Preparedness Index (done in conjunction with MIT AgeLab), a new benchmark for measuring the readiness of American consumers to live well in older age. The measure looks beyond finances, which is why higher incomes don't improve some overall scores for issues like personal care. In all, the index found that Americans are largely underprepared for living out their retirement, landing a D grade with an average score of 60.
Plus, Ardal Loh-Gronager of Loh-Gronager Partners returns to the show after last week's appearance in the Market Call to discuss his recent book, "The Perceptive Investor: The Art, Science and Temperament of Successful Value Investing."
Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer for alternative and multi-asset investments at Westwood Holdings Group, says that a stock market that has averaged a 17% annualized gain for well over a decade "is not the equity environment that my dad knew," but while over-sized gains make investors worry that trouble must lie ahead, he thinks the market will roll on for as long as earnings continue to grow. Helfert says there's about a 30 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months, enough to worry about -- and to prompt investors to diversify -- but not enough to head to the sidelines.
With the stock market keeps flirting with record highs, Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, talks about a column he wrote recently for MarketWatch in which he noted that peaking markets don't actually make it any easier on money managers trying to pick winners.
Beth Pinsker, financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, details the hard dynamics and impossible decisions she faced when she became financial caretaker for her mom. Pinsker's book, "My Mother's Money: A Guide to Financial Caretaking," is out today and it contains lessons not only for those who will take over affairs for parents, but for seniors who don't want to leave a burden to their children. (Bonus: You will learn the importance of making sure your financial accounts have a "trusted contact.")
Jim Carroll, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager at Ballast Rock Private Wealth — known as the "Vixologist" on X — says that the Trump Administration is living up to the idea that it can "Make Volatility Great Again," as seen by record stock markets, but notes that the actions have raised uncertainty and made investors nervous. He says the stock market and economy are still "fussing around" with tariffs and other geo-political risks that could send the market for a loop, and says investors should be protecting themselves against a correction, though he notes that movement could be a steep decline in prices or a long period of sideways.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs puts another electric-vehicle maker in the Danger Zone, noting that while he dislikes a lot of the metrics for the industry, this company has been a stinker before and is poised to crater again, even as it has rebounded from huge past losses to gain more than 66 percent this year.
Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and head of investment group at Ariel Investments — manager of the Ariel Focus Fund — brings his focused value investing style to the Market Call.
Plus, Chuck discusses the results of his annual Halloween "Cash or Candy, Trade or Treat" experience with the kids, where he gave away two big jackpots and a lot of candy, but double-disappointed a few of the trick-or-treaters.
JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx, says that she doesn't expect there to be a need for a protracted cycle of rate cuts and makes the case that the Federal Reserve and the economy might be best served by stopping after one more cut, even if it waits through December to do it. Bianco says that markets -- particularly equity markets — want rate cuts — want rate cuts but could be overly optimistic about the impact that reductions would have when it comes to promoting spending, helping the labor market and more.
Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager, Vineyard Global Advisors says "It's a really healthy bull market right now" with the potential for the Standard & Poor's 500 to top 7,000 by year's end. Dilley added that the charts aren't showing the kind of big tops that suggest that momentum is starting to wane, so while valuations are elevated and "the market has priced in a lot of good news," he still thinks declines should be viewed as buying opportunities.
Ravi Chintapalli, portfolio manager on the Nuveen Global Fixed Income team, says that he has never seen a high-yield market that has been higher quality than what he is seeing now. That helps to explain tight spreads, and suggests investors shouldn't shy away from high-yield because they're being compensated for "the true level of default risk in the market."
In the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds, talks deep-value investing and how it works in a market dominated by a few big names. Carlisle recently wrote a book comparing the value investing tactics of Warren Buffett with "The Art of War" tactics of Sun Tzu.
Bryan Whalen, chief investment officer and head of fixed income at TCW says he's now putting the odds of a recession at 60 percent, down from 80 percent at the start of the year, but he suggests that even in a no-landing scenario, investors can expect dramatically higher volatility as stock and bond markets head into 2026. Whalen pointed out that with rate cuts starting to take hold, investors may want to keep some powder dry for the opportunities he sees ahead as the market responds to how the Fed plays out the cycle.
In the Market Call, Ardal Loh-Gronager, founder of Loh-Gronager Partners — the author of "The Perceptive Investor: The Art, Science and Temperament of Successful Value Investing" — discusses his take on value investing, which is a mix of classic Warren Buffett style with a bit more trading and a broad industry-based focus as a starting point.
Plus, as investors deal with the latest interest-rate cuts, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks an actively managed municipal bond fund as his "ETF of the Week."
Rob Arnott, founding chairman at Research Affiliates, says that classic index instruction has investors buying stocks after they get hot, dropping stocks after losses have occurred and missing out on several percentage points of return in the process. Arnott says the largest stocks earn their place in the index, but that the stocks that move into or out of an index — a process that is actively managed with the most-famous indexes — is where the trouble happens. As for the personal indexes that are arising these days, Arnott says that, in general, you'd be better off letting a cat pick the stocks for you.
Olivia Valdes, senior researcher at the FINRA Foundation, discusses their research which shows that consumers and investors are vulnerable to fraud because more than half of them don't recognize the common signs that someone is trying to pull a scam.
Plus, Chuck talks about how to calculate the expected value of a bet after a listener raises questions about the lottery option on his Halloween cash-or-candy game, and whether giving kids a second chance — the new twist Chuck is adding this year — doubles the odds of winning.
Christian Chan, chief investment officer, at AssetMark, says that markets should remain favorable for as long as economic conditions stay modestly positive, but he notes that the artificial-intelligence boom is helping to ensure that's the outcome, putting a floor under how much damage can be suffered in any financial storms. Chan says he expects those storms to stop short of a recession and he's not as sure as some observers that the market itself is in a bubble; he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but notes that they won't go too low for too long, which should help the economy move forward without hurting the fixed-income markets.
Behavioral finance expert Terrance Odean, a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California-Berkeley, discusses what investors do wrong when they are staring down bubbly conditions and how they ought to behave when markets are frothy and the experts are concerned about what the end of a rally will look like.
Kathryn Berkenpas, managing director of corporate growth for the CFP Board of Standards discusses the biggest financial regrets from Generation X, whose oldest members are turning 60 this year. A CFP Board of Standards survey of Gen-Xers, showed that nearly half felt they made financial moves that have ultimately cost them at least $100,000 in what they could have saved simply by pursuing better money behaviors.
Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says there is a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, where the economy has been great for stocks but consumers have been feeling the pain. He is hoping to see rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with the impacts trickling down to Main Street in ways that might perk up some of the soft data and consumer sentiment, and that could help people avoid falling into the trap of spiraling debt.
Stefan Sharkansky, creator of The Best Third, discusses his research, which shows that the classic "4% Rule" — where retirees expect to be set for life financially if they can live by spending no more than 4 percent of their retirement nestegg annually — has two bad potential outcomes, either premature depletion of their portfolio or unnecessary underspending. He dials in on how savers can better view their savings to make more efficient use of their nestegg.
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, revisits Warby Parker in The Danger Zone, noting that the eyeglass maker and retailer is popular but that brand-recognition alone isn't enough to make a good stock, particularly if it leads to greater sales without any signs of profits. New Constructus first put Warby Parker in the Danger Zone when it was going through its IPO in 2021.
Plus Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that economists believe the likelihood of a recession is shrinking, at least for now.
Economist Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that his preferred indicators on economic growth are showing a slowing economy, where "the recession may already be starting." He acknowledges that the stock market "hasn't figured this out," but he says — based on the way Treasuries are trading — that the bond market has already figured it out. Rosenberg says that the market has "been in a bubble environment for many, many months," but that it can continue to inflate without popping for a while. "You're investing in an environment where the wind is in your face," he says, "it's not at your back."
For a decade now, Chuck has offered the trick-or-treaters in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, and the opportunity to make a trade to try to get a bigger treat. It's his way of teaching basic financial decision-making, where children must consider if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. The game changes in small ways each year, and Chuck is unveiling a new "second chance" option that actually would be a really bad choice for the children. Chuck also talks about how you can do your own scaled-down version of cash-or-candy in your home.
Discount-capture investor Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that he's "not seeing anything in the closed-end fund space that would point to any type of bubble conditions," but instead sees generic, seasonal discount-widening caused by the start of year-end tax selling. Still, he says investors should make sure they are comfortable that they can weather those flurries "and readjust to the better things that are on sale and then double-collect on the way up."
Plus Jon Stubbs, analyst at Clever Real Estate talks about the housing market as measured by trends in national statistics, which have shown that homes are now on the market for longer than during the summer, with median home values up slightly but median sale prices up more, suggesting that investors are paying a premium to make a deal now.
Steve Cucchiaro, chief investment officer at 3EDGE Asset Management, says we're in a "market melt-up," the last phase of a rally or bubble that creates a buying climax, but that typically ends with trouble. Cucchiaro says valuations are in one of the three greatest periods of overvaluation they have seen in the last century, making them more dangerous than investors expect. As a result, he is holding more in international stocks than domestic issues and is ramping up gold holdings to 10 to 15 percent of the typical client's portfolio.
David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says he worries that "The market is becoming the economy," where a big decline in markets could drag the broader economy into a deep recession. Ellison likes the positioning of the financial services industry, but he questions both the popularity and impact of rate cuts, noting that from current levels rate reductions might not be good or healthy for the economy.
In honor of Halloween, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a scary fund — a leveraged bullish daily play on a specific sector — his ETF of the Week, noting that these kinds of specialized funds really only work for investors who will oversee their portfolio constantly to make sure that they don't get burned by the "hot sauce" they're adding to their holdings.
Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says the market is in uncharted territory, but that's not just about record highs, but also because the Federal Reserve is in a position where it will be cutting rates with the market at highs and with the underlying conditions suggesting that a cut isn't warranted or necessary. Making cuts will appease the market, but it may lead to a steeper yield curve, which has Wells concentrating on the short end of the curve to minimize duration risk. Wells says that nervous investors are right to think that the market can't rise forever, but it can keep going up for years, so the fear of missing out is as real as the concerns that the markets are topping and investors need to find a balance between the two.
Brian Potts, founder of Goods Unite Us and the creator of the Democratic Large Cap Core ETF — The DEMZ fund — brings his take on "politically responsible investing" to the Market Call, a day after Hal Lambert of the Maga ETF was on the show. He'll talk about his fund's methodology -- and how the research could allow him to create a Republican counterpart to his current fund — and his take on some stocks will include some surprising agreement (and not surprising disagreements) with Lambert on a few names.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about dividend investing and why the benefits of regular payouts don't always translate to superior performance when compared to stocks that don't pay dividends.
Economist and University of Chicago professor Alex Imas discusses "The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now," which he co-authored with Nobel Prize winning economist Richard Thaler, and talks about the common curses impacting consumers and investors. Imas covers loss aversion and how it drives investors to make bad decisions, how the "endowment effect" explains our cluttered basements and much more.
In the first of two Market Call interviews this week that involve funds tied to political views, Hal Lambert, chief executive officer at Point Bridge Capital — creator of the MAGA ETF, Point Bridge America First — discusses the intersection of politics, investment philosophy and portfolio management and how he believes investors can participate in "politically responsible investing."
Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's 2025 Credit Card Debt Survey, which found that more than 40 percent of Americans are still paying off credit card debt from last fall, and roughly the same number say they can't handle more credit card debt, which could be setting them up for a less-pleasant holiday shopping season.
James Cordier, chief executive officer at Alternative Options, discusses how the worst drought in Brazil in the last century has coffee stockpiles at their lowest levels in over a decade, driving up costs for every consumer who needs their caffeine fix before they start work in the morning. Cordier, a long-time commodity trader, says that supply-and-demand imbalances are impacting a number of commodities — but most notably coffee and cocoa now — and says it is the commodity issues rather than tariffs that have driven most of the price hikes. At the same time, Cordier says that central bankers around the world have been buying gold at a frantic pace, pushing the price to record levels but leaving plenty of room for it to go significantly higher from here.
Harvard University professor John Campbell, co-author of "Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone," discusses how the financial system benefits the wealthy and financially savvy while setting up ordinary consumers to make costly mistakes. The book looks at everything from credit and insurance to student loans and retirement products, and Campbell talks about what it will take for more people to get a fair shake from the financial services industry.
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, dips into the mutual fund pool for this week's Danger Zone pick, singling out a mid-cap fund that has a decent track record based on past returns, but whose future may not be so bright. The problem, Guske says, is that the fund has loaded up on low-quality stocks, amping up the risk and the potential for an alarming turnaround.
Steven Grey, chief investment officer at Grey Value Management, says that inflated valuations have him making cash his favorite investment choice right now, noting that they can gain interest income while avoiding significant market risk while waiting for stock prices to blow off. The cash, Grey notes, not only will increase an investor's sleep factor, but it gives them the option to be buying when the rest of the market is selling. Grey says in the Market Call that his thinking also extends to the stocks he prefers right now, noting that he expects Berkshire Hathaway — notably holding a mountain of cash — to be a financial fortress that turns into a big positive when the money gets put to work when the market turns.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses the changing landscape of business-development companies and the details he gleaned from attending the recent Eversheds BDC Roundtable, which focused on legislative and other issues that are creating challenges and opportunities for the industry.
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, talks about his recent analysis of how inflation is impacting credit-card rewards, taking some of the shine off the perks and making it more important that consumers know the rules to get great value from their rewards cards.
Long-time financial journalist and markets observer Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, says that investor expectations have changed, based on markets where rapid gains seem easy. While he suggests that this mindset is not new — and notes that Wall Street always feeds the quacking ducks by giving them new ideas for how to capitalize on current events and trends — he says it is becoming harder for average investors to remember that a normal market is one that goes up slowly over time. He agrees with assessments that the market is in a bubble, but says investors should know to ride along but protect themselves.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes the rare move of revisiting a past ETF of the Week pick, singling out a T. Rowe Price actively managed bond fund for proving the point he was making about it roughly a year ago, when he previously selected it for attention.
Plus Jeremy Keil, retirement planner at Keil Financial Partners, discusses his new book, "Retire Today: Create Your Retirement Master Plan In 5 Simple Steps," noting that achieving a comfortable retirement is less about the money and more about setting expectations and planning for them.
Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says the stock market is inflating a bubble, but that it's really "a bubble on top of a bubble" in the artificial intelligence arena, where the stocks in the industry — but also those adjacent to the technology are booming even though many have yet to prove a real ability to generate profits. Green is worried about slowing economic conditions and expects a recession to hit, barring some significant efforts by the government and/or central bankers -- in 2026. He says investors are overlooking opportunities in fixed income broadly and high-yield specifically, and he favors those areas over rushing into whatever has been popular for a while now.
Jacob Ayres-Thomson, chief executive of 3AI which is working with financial-services firms and index providers to bring artificial intelligence-driven new approaches to the market discusses how new technologies are changing the old ways of investing, but without eliminating them. He says that no AI-driven bot will ever replace the genius of a Warren Buffett, but it will help make ordinary market actions easier to forecast and, potentially, capture in an investment.
Michael Scordo, wealth management adviser at Park Avenue Capital, discusses the latest data released from the Northwestern Mutual 2025 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that Generation X — the middle child of the generations with its oldest members turning 60 this year — is particularly worried about its financial future. Many are going through sandwich-generation problems — still raising kids while aging parents now require care — and more than half think they won't be financially prepared for retirement when the time comes.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide and the chair of the Outlook Survey for the National Association for Business Economics, says the latest survey, released Monday, showed higher expectations for economic growth for the rest of the year and into 2026, with GDP growth -- which had been pegged at roughly 1.3% -- now expected to grow by 1.8%. Bostjancic cautioned that the improved growth forecasts don't make for a frothy economy, but rather seem to reduce the chances of recession. She says that economists improved their outlook, largely because they were too pessimistic earlier this year as they forecast the impacts of tariffs and expected more of a drag on growth than we have seen in the last six months.
In the Market Call, hedge fund manager Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital discusses his long/short approach to stocks, and how he hunts out "special situations" that he believes are poised for above-average growth. Sacheti is a "Tiger Cub," a disciple of Julian Robertson, a legendary hedge fund manager.
Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who, like himself, has a new grandchild, but who has very different concerns because that baby has been diagnosed with Down Syndrome. Rich Yam, director of wealth strategy/wealth and tax planning at Wealthspire Advisors, helps Chuck examine the various considerations that a special-needs family should have, and how grandparents can provide real help for a lifetime.
Meb Faber, chief investment officer at the Cambria Funds, says that "extremely high valuations are a weight that's hard to overcome," and that the United States is currently "the most expensive country across the board." He notes that when a country ends the year with a price/earnings ratio above 40, the average future 10-year returns are zero. As a result, Faber is suggesting that investors diversify internationally, consider gold — which her describes as being "like your crazy cousin Eddie" coming to the family holiday party — and more.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that companies can manipulate earnings numbers in ways that keep investors interested, but which make future earnings misses most likely, and he puts those stocks that are likely to miss earnings in "The Danger Zone." Trainer says that 72 members of the Standard & Poor's 500 are currently overstating earnings by 10 percent or more. Trainer singled out NRG Energy, which has street estimates of 35 cents per share, but which he says is more likely to generate 6 cents per share in profits.
Chip Lupo discusses the 2025 Early Holiday Shopping Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly half of American consumers aren't waiting for Halloween to start their holiday shopping, but rather they will begin this month (if they haven't started already).
Eddie Ghabour, chief executive officer at Key Advisors Wealth Management, says "the worst is behind us from the economic slowdown," and he expects growth to accelerate at the end of the year and into the first quarter. Combined with rate cuts, it will add fuel to a market that he says is clearly inflating a bubble, with that performance boosted as well by the longer a government shutdown rolls. He says investors should not fear the bubble, because the market will telegraph the bursting. "You can make the most money in bubbles," he says. "The key to bubbles is riding it up but making sure you are not all in when that bubble pops."
Ghabour is not the only one talking about the market being in a bubble, as David Lundgren, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, says the technicals show a market clearly in bubble territory, but in the long upward phase of that cycle. That's why he is fully invested, for now, despite expecting an ugly downturn that he thinks could begin next year.
Drake Hicks, head of impact investing at Variant Investments, discusses the unusual intersection of closed-end funds with impact investing, which goes beyond ESG (environmental, social and government principles) to invest in projects which have a purpose beyond just a profit margin. The firm runs the Variant Impact Fund, a high-yield closed-end interval fund whose assets are aligned with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, and Hicks talks about how shareholders benefit from the interval structure.
Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says many investors believe the current stock market run to record levels has been about price momentum, but he says that earnings momentum has shown growth that is strong enough that it should calm the nerves of investors who think the artificial intelligence business is inflating a market bubble. Valens' research revolves around "uniform accounting," and Spivey discusses proposals that would change how often public companies must report earnings, and talks about why he believes it would not have as much impact on the market as many observers expect.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes the newest fund created by Vanguard — an emerging markets fund that excludes China — his pick for "ETF of the Week," noting that the ETF is a solid passive adjunct to actively managed emerging-markets strategies. Excluding China, Rosenbluth noted, is a strategic choice that may depend on an investor's gut feeling over the potential for a trade war or bigger tariff problems in the future.
Financial adviser Dan Dorval of Dorval & Chorne discusses 'Financial Success for the Rest of Us: Quality of Life Planning for Mainstream America," the book he wrote 20-plus years ago and just revised. He discusses how planning has changed but how developing investor discipline has remained one of the key factors of whether a person will achieve financial prosperity.
Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the equity market is "very excited, very ecstatic and continuing to move up," but she warns that stock valuations are extended and she says the market is setting up a fall. Smith says two phrases -- "The Emperor is wearing no clothes" and "The band played on" -- tell the story of this market, but she expects that when the investing public wakes up to see damaging impacts of tariffs and other policies, the market will fall hard. She's not expecting that turn soon, but she says it's unavoidable if current policies are followed through to their economic conclusion. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, brings his "five-lens approach" to stock research to the Market Call. He warns that investors should be worrying about euphoria over recent market results, noting that if your bartender or barber is giving you stock advice, it's a sign that the market is overbought and investors should be patient. Natalie Iannello discusses a study done for IPX1031.com which showed that 2 in 5 Americans are changing investment strategies and moving money due to a tough economy, with 42% shifting to safer investments and 36% adding new income streams. Reducing debt is a key priority, but Iannello says an alarming number of Americans have tapped their emergency assets or sold investments to get by in current conditions.
Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says he "would like the Fed to be lower," and says that rate cuts from the central bank will help to spur small-cap stocks starting to participate more in the rally. Schwartz likes the looks of international stocks, but particularly Japan, which has reached record highs and finally recaptured peaks first experienced decades ago, but which Shcwartz says is valued in a way that supports significant future growth. Schwartz, co-author of "Stocks for the Long Run," says that while short-term turmoil could send the market for a loop, it is positioned well to keep delivering decent long-term returns.
Toni Turner, president of TrendStar Group, says it would "be normal and natural right now for this market to move down a little bit," because the market has reached and held highs, but she says that the technicals "are all beautiful right now," even if she is holding her breath a bit right now. Turner says that as along as the Standard & Poor's Index remains among its 20- and 50-day moving averages, "she's breathing fine," but she is prepared to "get wise" and do some profit-taking when the trend starts to weaken.
David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's 2025 Global Retirement Index, which assesses retirement security in 44 developed countries to see how well those nations are positioned to support aging populations. The index found again this year that Norway is the best-prepared country, with the United States finishing in the middle of the pack both among all countries and among the biggest nations; only one of the biggest nations even makes the top 10 in this annual study, which Goodsell notes may be due to the increased challenges that come with having so many more people reaching retirement age.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says the economy is reasonably healthy and has been resilient amid difficult headlines, which make it likely to accelerate as rate cuts, tax cuts and deregulation kick in and provide a spending boost. At the same time, Brusuelas says he thinks the market is building "bubbles and period of over-speculation where there's a concentration of risk in one area of the equities market," which could lead to "a healthy correction" that brings the market back to earth and squeezes out the speculators.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has long disliked the electric vehicle industry, noting that the stocks are priced more on hype than on any proven ability to deliver. Today he puts Luci Group in The Danger Zone, noting that the company has persistent ongoing losses, high cash burn, heavy shareholder dilution and is facing profitable competitors in a market that is seeing demand fall. Worse yet, he says the stock is priced as if it will "sell more vehicles than the best-selling passenger car in America."
Sam Bourgi of Investors Observer discusses the latest Big Mac Housing Index, which showed that it now takes nearly 71,000 Big Macs from McDonald's priced at the national average, to buy the median-price house in the United States, and what those changing dynamics — housing prices that actually have fallen in the last three years against rising inflation on food prices — means for the broad economy.
Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says "the market wants higher" and is filled with cup-and-saucer patterns that "are waiting for handles to form," which is typically a bullish sign for individual names. Zanger says the broad market is showing some technical signs of resistance, but says investors should stick with what has been working. He did note, however, that for all of the publicity they get, not all of the Magnificent Seven stocks have been in the market's sweet spot from a technical standpoint; he favors Nvidia and Alphabet (google) at this point.
Scott Stevens, chief executive officer at Grays Peak Capital, looks at the private-credit markets, and particularly at how defense-critical spending is being impacted by the government shutdown. He also discusses private equity, venture capital and real estate markets and how they are responding to a new rate-cut cycle and more.
Ray DiBernardo, portfolio manager of the XAI Madison Equity Premium Income fund, says that covered-call strategies have become increasingly popular of late, as investors want to goose income while reducing market risk. While investors should use covered calls more as an income-oriented investment, their outperformance during the market downturn in 2022 has many investors also using them to hedge market risk.
Plus, Chuck follows up on a suggestion from earlier in the week that the government shutdown should spur everyone to take a financial stress test by answering a listener's question on just how to implement that strategy.
Ed Campbell, the founder of Red Hook Phoenix Investment Partners, says that key shifts in the economy triggered by advancements in artificial intelligence and automation, changes to the financial situation, shifting geopolitics and more will make it so that markets and economies don't get so far off-kilter that they create boom and bust patterns. He says recessions and downturns will continue, but that the market will act more like it has in recent years, where it has climbed the wall of worry to new heights overcoming stumbles but avoiding crashes.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, acknowledges that the government shutdown and other current conditions have made investors nervous, so his ETF of the Week is a pick with built-in downside protection to calm the nerves.
In the Market Call, Adam Coons, chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management, discusses how he uses ETFs for a core-and-satellite investment approach that currently is neutral to market conditions, meaning that he believes investors should be rebalancing portfolios to return to planned asset allocations.
Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies for Neuberger Berman says that "valuation becomes less important when you have high conviction in sustained growth of earnings, economic growth and high return on equity," which is why he's focused on the earnings portion of price/earnings and is plowing forward with stocks even with the markets near record highs. Blazek acknowledges that valuations are stretched, but says that is much more important during times when there is less confidence in the economy continuing to grow and power solid earnings. Blazek likes the looks of international investments — particularly Japan and China — because they have better valuations at a time when global growth appears likely to pick up.
David Busch, co-chief investment officer at Trajan Wealth, says he is worried that the impact of the government shutdown could be felt most in delayed economic numbers, which could impact what the Federal Reserve does next. When it comes to the market, Busch is in the same camp as Blazek, thinking the earnings power has the potential to make valuations less important, though he notes he will be looking for that trend to change when third-quarter earnings are released soon.
Ivana Delevska, founder of Spear Invest — which runs the Spear Alpha ETF — brings her approach to industrial technology to the Market Call.
Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, says that investors need to "keep on dancing" while the music is playing, but she says the tunes are about to change or stop, with valuations setting the market up for a decline of up to 20 percent that could might take a while to get here but which could show up this year if the market has a bad reaction to the Federal Reserve cooling on rate cuts. She notes that the rate-cut cycle could cut short the current small-cap rally, contributing to a down or sideways period. Hooper isn't backing away from domestic markets, but says investors should rebalance portfolios and lean into the better valuations available in foreign markets.
She's not the only one expecting the market to take a breather or more here, as Mike Passante, director of financial planning at Focused Wealth Management says that technical indicators show that the stock market may be hitting resistance levels now, which could lead to a small pullback as the market resets and refreshes itself. Passante says the market has room to rebound to levels that are slightly higher than today, but he notes any more significant gains this year would require a big increase in investors' animal spirits near year-end.
In the Book Interview, Victoria Bateman discusses “Economica: A Global History of Women, Wealth, and Power,” and introduces us to some women whose roles helped to make the world rich but whose exploits have mostly been ignored or forgotten by history.
With a potential shutdown of the federal government loming on Tuesday — which would result in hundreds of thousands of workers being furloughed — the stock market enters this week on edge. Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, has examined how the market has responded to past shutdowns, and notes that the impacts typically are short-lived, though the longer any closure continues, the greater and more long-lasting the likely impacts.
Chuck follows up on the theme by noting that watching such a large number of workers potentially going through a personal crisis should trigger everyone to take a financial stress test, effectively simulating what would happen if they were furloughed and missed a pay period or more. He says that putting personal finances under strain helps set priorities and may also show that a saver has the ability to save more and differently.
Brian Thorp, chief executive officer at Wealthtender discusses a survey done by the firm which shows that 25 percent of Americans with $100,000 or more in assets would use artificial intelligence for financial advice or to find the human adviser who they would trust to help with their finances. Thorp says the results show that investors still value human advice, but they are using AI to bring some measure of control or order to the process of getting assistance.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, reaffirms buy-now/pay-later provider Affirm Holdings as belonging in the Danger Zone, despite a series of management moves that raised cash and got the company off the list of zombie stocks while also pushing the price higher. He says investors who buy the shares now will, indeed, be paying later for the purchase, unless the company can find a way to generate profits out of taking on the risk of retailers, something it has struggled with since New Constructs first put it in the Danger Zone in 2021.
Jim Besaw, chief investment officer at GenTrust, says that the market is pricing everything as if all artificial intelligence ideas are going to come through and deliver revolutionary change and profits, and that investors are ignoring the risks that come with the technology. That could be setting them up for a fall, although Besaw is neutral on the market rather than negative, and is also neutral on asset allocations, noting that he's not leaning into specific sectors or markets -- with the possible exception of favoring international markets slightly to domestic -- and is instead at baseline levels trying to remain calm and patient while headline risks play out and signal the next moves.
Steven McKee of the No-Load Mutual Fund Selections & Timing Newsletter discusses how his timing models are bullish right now, across all asset classes. While the headline risks have captured investors' attention, he says there is not much on the horizon right now that could turn the timing models bearish quickly.
John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, looks at business-development companies, which have been in the news lately as industry watchers have questioned whether the high yields could be luring investors into a sticky situation when rates start falling and business conditions tighten. He draws on history and times when BDCs have been whipsawed by the market to look at whether a collapse is driven by the situation or by the system itself.
Nate Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, says that he's still leaning into equities despite stock valuations being stretched, noting that the fundamentals support modest gains and aren't signalling a bubble or crisis. Thooft does worry that the market may run out of momentum and may lack a catalyst for further gains by the time 2026 rolls around, but for now he says there are plenty of reasons to keep investing and not to be scared off by high prices.
Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's latest retirement savings report, released Wednesday, which showed that nearly 60 percent of workers are behind on their retirement savings. Hamrick noted that the problem is partially about failing to make set-asides, but it is also caused by a lack of financial planning and common misperceptions about how money grows over time and how much it takes to afford a comfortable retirement.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a Fidelity fund his pick as the ETF of the Week, but this selection is about the investment-grade assets the fund holds, and how they are an interesting actively managed change-up to more conventional fixed-income funds.
Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener whose wife wants to buy a new car and who wonders if it ever makes sense to buy new when he could save money on a quality used car.
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, says rate cuts are not a panacea for the housing market, especially because Americans got used to nearly 50 years of declining mortgage rates until they moved from the 3% level up to their 6% range over the last few years. Now — with consumers feeling like they have golden handcuffs in older, low-rate mortgages — Fleming says gains will be slow, because improved affordability will need to be driven by income growth among consumers, and paychecks will have to increase at a rate faster than home-price appreciation to overcome rate concerns.
Dan Wiener, former chairman and chief executive at Adviser Investments (now RWA Wealth Partners) — the long-time editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors — discusses the piece he wrote for Barron's this week, "I Learned the Hard Way: Private Investments Probably Don't Belong in Your Portfolio," and discusses why he thinks that recent law changes that make alternatives more accessible in retirement plans are good for financial companies but bad for consumers.
Research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a recent study showing that consumers recognize that it is their spending habits, more than inflation and market conditions, that is behind financial woes. Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame themselves for credit card debt.
Phillip Wool, chief research officer and lead portfolio manager, Rayliant Global Advisors, says "there are places where valuations are so stretched I find it hard to explain," but he notes that is more in certain sectors and certain themes, but he says the global economy is in a good place, which makes him optimistic about the future for stocks, just cautious about how much investors should set expectations. He notes that when valuations get this stretched, future returns tend to be muted. He also discusses why he believes there is still time for investors who have missed the foreign stock rally this year to get involved. "This is not something that has played out," he said, "there's still room for this international outperformance to continue."
Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds — who was the first portfolio manager of an Internet fund when they first emerged in the 1990s — talks stocks in the Market Call, but also focuses on the similarities between the artificial intelligence boom that's powering the markets today and the Internet bubble that ended so badly with a market crash in 2000.
Plus, Chuck remembers longtime Wall Street Journal columnist and personal finance educator Jonathan Clements of HumbleDollar.com, who passed away over the weekend after a battle with lung cancer. Clements — a long-time contemporary of Chuck's in the personal finance journalism world — was last on the show one year ago today, discussing his diagnosis and leaving behind lasting lessons.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that the market’s earnings power is enough to keep pushing it forward, overcoming obstacles like increased tariff impacts and sticky inflation and leading to an optimistic outlook for next year while acknowledging the headline risks that have investors’ attention, Mullarkey said that earnings growth could extend to small caps — particularly after government deregulation efforts take hold — to broaden out and extend the current run.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs says a recent rally in shares of Snap Inc. doesn’t change bad fundamentals. While Trainer said the company has moved out of “zombie stock” status, it’s still dangerously overvalued and due to resume its fall.
Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discussed how the market at record levels and imminent rate cuts contributed to bullish sentiment jumping dramatically last week in the latest AAAII Sentiment Survey, with neutral feelings dropping to particularly low levels. Rotblut explained that the low neutral sentiment tends to be more of an indicator — an alarming one — than the spike in positive vibes.
Plus, Chuck gives an update on the funds that hackers stole from an online savings account and his efforts to get the money back.
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says "there's a lot of funky stuff going on in the labor market," and that reduced interest rates may not change conditions but could instead impact the market and contribute to a melt-up that helps the bull market roll on. While melt-ups do tend to be followed by a regression, Yardeni does not see the market reversing too sharply; he's not currently worried about a recession and instead says the current decade is a new Roaring '20s, though he notes that this go-round is unlikely to end in another Great Depression, and instead thinks that current conditions can also turn the next decade into the "Rolling '30s."
Jason Brown of The Brown Report — the host of the "Five-Year Millionaire"podcast — says that the technicals are giving him "a lot of reasons to be bullish" without "much to slow it down" on the horizon. That should have investors digging deep on A.I. stocks, especially on any pullbacks or declines, where he says the long-term potential of the new technologies will reward investors who are able to remain patient through volatility.
Axel Merk, the head of Merk Investments and the Merk Funds, but also chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals Fund, says there is no real end in sight for the current gold rally, due to the start of rate cuts, a weakening dollar and persistent geopolitical risks, including tariffs. ASA Gold, which invests largely in junior mining companies, is up more than 100 percent year-to-date — compared to roughly 40 percent gains for physical gold ETFs — but still carries a double-digit discount; Merk explains in "The NAVigator" why that unusual situation is logical given current market conditions.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that while stock market valuations look high, "they're not crazy either," because the companies are making money at levels that justify the higher prices. He says he is leaning towards value — and holding cash while waiting for buying pullbacks — and away from the biggest names, noting that the Magnificent Seven stocks are "where the risk is." He's not expecting a recession, noting that employment is holding and consumer spending is strong, conditions that normally forestall economic downturns.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says the long-awaited rally in small-cap stocks may be in the offing, as he picks a small-cap value fund from VictoryShares as his "ETF of the Week."
Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser, brings his "buy the manager, not the fund" approach to Vanguard's funds and ETFs, but also talks about the areas of a portfolio where investors will want to go outside of the world's biggest fund company to get real complete a well-diversified portfolio.
John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says the conditions are increasingly bringing back the spectre of a recession, with the odds of a protracted economic slowdown now standing at about 50 percent. Moreover, he doesn't believe that the widely anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve today will really do anything to alter that course. Blank says that the recession could trigger a stock market sell-off that could cut valuations by more than 40 percent, though he does not think that any such decline will be long-lived.
Allison Hadley discusses research she did for NC Solutions which showed that 73% of Americans say little treats are crucial to quality of life; as a result, they're spending an average of $360 a year on $5 indulgences like chocolate, coffee, and candles.
Scott Bennett, founder of Invest With Rules brings his trend-following methodology to the Market Call, where he helps to prove the adage that "disagreement makes a market" by coming to the opposite conclusion on a stock covered by John Dorfman of Dorfman Value on yesterday's show.
Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring and Rozencwajg — a fundamental research firm that focuses on making contrarian natural resource plays — says that the rally in gold is far from over, and that "until it gets to at least the long-term average [of its value relative to the market], you are in an aggressive bull market, an aggressive accumulation phase." That average would take gold to about $8,000 an ounce, meaning the asset has room to double. Rozencwajg also talks oil and why he likes it despite status as "the most hated asset class in the world."
Ryan Redfern, chief investment officer at Shadowridge Asset Management, says that correlations are so high that "you stick with the big stuff, the S&P and Nasdaq," rather than diversifying into small-caps and international stocks, which have had occasional runs but which haven't gained long-term edges on the classics. He sees the market as having a "knee-jerk reaction to news" like potential rate cuts this week, but says that sets up the market for a seasonal run into the end of the year.
John Dorfman, chairman of Dorfman Value Investments, brings his class price/earnings-driven style to stocks in the Market Call.
It's a wrap on FinCon '25 from Portland, but not before what Chuck describes as the "single best day of interviews [he has] done at any FinCon that Money Life has attended." Here's the lineup:
— Paul Merriman is a long-time financial advisor, author and retirement columnist — he was writing for MarketWatch before Chuck got there in 2003 and still writes for them today — who has watched the transitions that have impacted the investing world over the decades. He gives his take on everything from ETFs versus traditional funds to crypto and much more.
— Paula Pant is the host of "Afford Anything," one of the most influential podcasts in the financial world. She talks about how inflation has impacted people's mindset on what they can afford — and why it shouldn't change your thinking if you have spending in the right place — but also has a unique perspective on America's housing affordability crisis and how consumers should respond to the problem.
— Jessie Jimenez is the founder of Cashtoons.com, where she produces short animated films that cover the investment and money-management basics, but which also get into topics like managing your flexible-spending account or calculating your retirement budget to hone in on a savings target.
— Kanwal Sarai of the Simply Investing Dividends podcast discusses his obsession with dividend-paying stocks, his criteria for buying and selling them — because he is more active in selling than many long-term dividend buyers — and more.
— Joe Saul-Sehy, host of the Stacking Benjamins podcast, puts a bow on the FinCon interviews — as he has done in each of the last three years — talking about the good and bad he sees among content creators in the financial space, the worst interview he has ever done and what makes for good financial talk.
It's the second day of interviews from FinCon '25, the annual event for financial podcasters, bloggers and content creators being held in Portland, Ore., and Chuck is chatting up fintech entrepreneurs, financial coaches, retire-early advocates and much more. Today's show includes:
— Ravi Wadan, the founder of DriveMatch.com, discusses pre-negotiated car leases and the benefits of leasing online.
— Nik Johnson of EverydayMoneyHeroes.com, who talks about overcoming the challenges that keep many families from building generational wealth, and how it is small daily moves or changes have impacts that can last for decades on families.
— Gwen Merz Joiner, the original "fiery millennial," who aggressively scrimped and saved in her 20s to "retire early," only to find herself miserable. The co-host of the FIRE Takes podcast, changed her lifestyle, found happiness and a job she loves, but who is now turning 35 and looking at using the financial groundwork she laid as a cornerstone to answering the question "What's next?"
— Adam Bergman, founder of IRA Financial, who discusses how investors have been using alternative assets from cryptocurrency to real estate to private equity in self-directed IRAs, but who will now find access to those asset classes in their 401(k) plans thanks to recent law changes. He discusses how retirement portfolios have changed as those assets have become more available.
— Plus, Fridays on Money Life start with "The NAVigator," and today John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, sizes up[ the times when an investor might pick (or mix-and-match) owning a closed-end fund versus an ETF or a fund-of-funds that covers the same asset class.
Money Life begins the first of three days of interviews from FinCon 2025, the annual gathering of financial content creators, which this year is in Portland, Ore., and which lets Chuck showcase a wide range of subjects.
Today, those subjects include:
— college savings and the changing landscape of consumers paying off college debt with Robert Farrington of TheCollegeInvestor.com.
— crushing medical debt, and an unusual way for consumers to get out from under it with Jared Walker, founder of the non-profit fintech start up Dollar For.
— a conversation that Chuck thinks may be the most unusual of his long career with comedian turned financial coach Lauren Baker, who also goes by the name "Firenze, the friendly FIndom" and whose interview will introduce you to the world of financial domination.
— "How Financial Stuff Works," the long-hoped for literacy project of financial adviser Alex Whitehouse.
— the changing state of financial content creators, what's dead, what's next and how artificial intelligence will impact it all with FinCon's founder, Philip Taylor of TheCreatorCPA.com.
Plus, every Thursday on Money Life starts with the ETF of the Week, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a multi-sector bond fund from a veteran fund manager his pick this week.
Jillian Johnsrud, the podcaster behind "Retire Often," and the author of a new book out this week that goes by the same title, says that a lot of people mess up their retirement lifestyle by not preparing for it with smaller retirements — lasting a month or more — during their prime working years. Not only do these smaller times allow people to recharge and rejuvenate, they become dry runs for the real thing, allowing pre-retirees to sample ideas and then plan how to execute the best concepts. Johnsrud — who says she has retired at least a dozen times despite only being in her early 40s — says that small retirements are achievable, even by workaholics (like this show's host) with some foresight and planning.
Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services — longtime publisher of The DRIP Investor newsletter — returns to the show to help Chuck answer a listener's question about how to deal with an inherited portfolio of stocks all held in dividend reinvestment programs.
Chip Lupo discusses the 2025 Money and Relationships Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly one in three people think their relationship is limiting their financial growth, with communication (or a lack thereof) being at the heart of the problem.
And Chuck starts his interviews from FinCon '25 in Portland, Ore., by chatting with Doug Nordman of MilitaryFinancialIndependence.com, who says that while current events have some military members reconsidering their work choices, that action is appropriate and happens in all times, but it doesn't mean that military families will be abandoning their financial plans even if they change careers before achieving military status that could set them up for life.
Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management — manager of the Ranger Small Cap and Ranger Micro Cap funds — says that smaller companies have suffered as an asset class because corporate earnings have struggled to meet growth expectations. While there is an expectation that small companies will benefit from a cut in interest rates and from deregulation policies from the government, Doenges says in the Market Call that earnings expectations remain muted, so the long awaited rally in small caps could come, but be less than investors have been waiting for.
Jeffrey Ptak, managing director at Morningstar Research Services, discusses his recent research into funds that have massive amounts of success to become darlings of the media and of investors, and how they tend to disappoint just after the flood of money comes in. While the results are not surprising, Ptak says it is more than just the typical "regression to the mean" that knocks these hot funds from the ranks of top performers.
Allison Hadley discusses a mid-year tariff survey from Bid-on-Equipment.com which showed that 1 in 5 Americans are stockpiling goods trying to beat price hikes, even though they mostly had to guess on which goods to purchase until tariff policies were firmed up. The survey also showed that nearly 80 percent of consumers are changing their spending habits, mostly by cutting back, which could be a bad sign for the economy moving forward.
David Giroux, chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price — named Morningstar's Outstanding Portfolio Manager for 2025 for his work at T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation — says his allocation fund is holding near its highest levels ever of bonds, specifically intermediate fixed-income, largely because he thinks stocks are overvalued and real growth will remain hard to find. Giroux — who has beaten the average peer in his Morningstar asset class for 17 consecutive years, the longest streak in the entire fund industry — has long disdained investing in foreign stocks and says the rally that 2025 has produced overseas is an anomaly and that no one "should ever feel a need to own an inferior index just for diversification purposes." In the wide-ranging interview, Giroux says that the Magnificent Seven stocks have actually been the Mag 6, plus Tesla, saying that the car maker has no business being in the portfolio of leading securities.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, put Klarna in The Danger Zone in April, when the buy-now, pay-later financial firm was attempting to go public but put off the process in the face of the market's drop after "Liberation Day." Now the company is back attempting an initial public offering, and that brings them back under Trainer's scrutiny again, before they ever get launched as a stock.
Natalia Brown, chief consumer affairs and creditor relations officer for National Debt Relief, discusses the firm's survey showing that six in 10 American parents are going into debt for their children. She talks about what parents are foregoing for their own lives to help the kids, and what they are paying for that puts them into debt.
Jim Welsh, author of “Macro Tides” and the “Weekly Technical Review,” says he thinks the stock market "is reaching an inflection point," saying that the next time the Standard & Poor's 500 makes new records but without support from the highs in the advance-decline line, he will take it as a sign that the stock market is about to roll over. Welsh says that several momentum indicators suggest a short-term decline could be between 3 and 7%, at which point he expects a bounce-back that lasts only until the economic concerns take hold. Welsh says a rise in layoffs would show that the market has gone from mild slowing to something more active, If job growth slows markedly "and we get to a point where the economy starts to meaningfully slow down, that is going to be the trigger for a much deeper and more prolonged decline." That drop, he says, could fulfill a 17-year cycle which would drop the S&P 500 by thousands of points.
Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, says that this is "the best time I have ever seen" in a three-decade career to be investing in energy. Thummel, who manages Tortoise Energy Infrastructure, notes that the U.S. has grown into the largest energy producer and energy exporter in the world; coupled with emerging energy needs caused by the expansion of artificial intelligence, it will drive demand growth "for decades to come."
Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services — which publishes the "Best Dividend and Income Investments" newsletter — brings the proprietary Quadrix system and its multi-factor evaluation process to the Money Life Market Call.
Plus Allison Hadley discusses a PartnerCentric.com survey which showed that more than 40% of Americans say they're actively reducing social media use in 2025, with nearly 20 percent having already quit at least one app this year as they try to take more control of their personal lives.
The Powerball jackpot that went unclaimed on Wednesday night will top $1.7 billion for its next drawing this weekend, and will mark the 13th time in less than a decade that the big prize has been north of $1 billion. Chuck talks about why jackpots have grown this large, how you might use the lottery as a personal finance tool — even if, like him, you never buy a ticket and why the odds are never in your favor.
In the "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a technology fund that mixes the big names and the tech-adjacent" plays to create an opportunity for investors seeking a growth bost for their portfolio.
Natalie Iannello discusses a survey done for FrontDoor which looked at how homeowners were keeping cool under the heat of more extreme water bills this summer.
Plus Seth Cogswell, manager of the Running Oak Efficient Growth ETF, brings his disciplined approach to stocks — which focuses at least as much on reasons to sell as it does on opportunities to buy — to the Market Call
Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital — manager of the firm's energy infrastructure funds as well as its new AI Infrastructure ETF — says that in a three-decade career, he has never seen a better time to be looking at the energy sector, thanks to being the world's largest energy producer with opportunities to remain the global leader, but also due to the power needs created by artificial intelligence. He says "Electricity is the new oil," driving the economy forward the way oil companies used to. Thummel notes in his Market Call interview that he has now seen some Bitcoin mining companies morph into data centers, largely because the megatech companies are paying to get access to the power supply that the crypto mining companies have developed.
Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest "Beer Purchasers Index," a forward-looking measure of economic activity that he says has reached the lowest point in its 10-year-plus history, indicative of a "beer recession," with less orders, declining sales and other economic indicators showing an alarming down cycle for the industry that could be a bad sign for the broader economy.
In the Big Interview, Rick Pitcairn, chief global strategist at Pitcairn — a firm that works with ultra high net worth families managing money over lifetimes — discusses the importance of not allowing today's bumps and headlines become something bigger in a portfolio. It eliminates "the execution risk of timing," and allows the market to turn a steady return in the high single digits" to become "a super wealth accumulator." As a result, he's fully diversified, and suggesting investors lean into international stocks and bonds, hard assets and more now.
Chuck warned listeners a few weeks ago that he had been hit by a computer virus, and that they should not open a spam e-mail that was being sent from one of his accounts. But that was the beginning of his online misadventures, because he hadn't just gotten a virus, he was hacked. Thieves have stolen nearly $4,000 from an online bank account, and they did it right under his nose. He explains how it happened, how he caught it, why he thinks he will eventually get restitution from the bank and more.
Stephen Kates discusses a survey on financial regrets from Bankrate.com, which showed that the most common regret for Americans now is not saving for retirement early enough, followed by racking up too much credit card debt.
Nick Pisano talks about research from Clever Real Estate showing that 60 percent of Americans believe that having a nearby short-term rental unit from a site like AirBNB lower's a home's appeal and value. The problems run from rental guests not caring about the neighborhood they're staying in to the constant in-and-out reducing the quality of life for the locals.
In the Market Call, John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, discusses his "trifecta analysis" of closed-end funds and how frequently he will add or drop funds to take advantage of market conditions but also tax circumstances.
Dana Samuelson, president of American Gold Exchange — a former president of the Professional Numismatists Guild — sees "a meaningful rally in gold" coming once the Federal Reserve makes multiple rate cuts, but adds that turmoil over Fed leadership and concerns that government data could be compromised or less transparent would build "a better bed from gold to rise from." Samuelson said he expects gold to be in the $3,900 to $4,200 per ounce range within a year, and that his forecast might be conservative if there is any sort of global debt problem or currency collapse.
Kimberly Flynn, president at XA Investments, discusses the recent executive order signed by President Trump that allows a dramatic expansion of alternative assets to be part of 401(k) and other retirement plans. While headlines have made it seem like crypto bros will blow up their retirement plans with alternatives, Flynn discusses how firms running life-cycle and target-date funds may decide to make allocations to alternative asset classes, exposing everyday investors to alternatives, but in safer ways than most industry watchers are imagining.
Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer for Infrastructure Capital Advisors, brings his macro-first approach to the Market Call, noting that rate cuts should be "tremendously positive for the market" and are keeping him bullish even as the market enters September, a seasonally weak time for stocks.
Jeff Clark, head of defined contribution research at Vanguard, says the firm's latest "How America Saves" report for 2025 shows that consumers are doing a better job of setting money aside for their future, helped by rules that have made it easier for employers to help. The average total savings rate — including both worker contributions plus employer contributions — is now up to 12 percent, a potential target for all investors to try to achieve.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to the first active bond ETF — a 15-year-old iconic fund from PIMCO — as an ultra-safe alternative to cash with his "ETF of the Week."
In the Market Call, Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager for Argent Capital and the Argent Large Cap ETF — which launched just as the market was bottoming out after the tariff announcements in April — discusses looking for enduring business models.
Plus, Chuck talks about the Federal Reserve and why its independence is so important to the long-term functioning of the economy and the ability to keep inflation controlled.
Chuck became a grandfather for the first time on Sunday and has been planning how he will help his grandson financially for years, but today he chats with financial adviser and author Chris Carosa, author of "From Cradle to Retirement," about "Child IRAs," and how he plans to create an income for the baby and then invest that money into a Roth IRA to provide decades of tax-free growth. Carosa also discusses the new "Trump accounts," which give newborns $1,000 and allow parents to contribute more, and discusses how he would prioritize saving for a child's future.
Sudipto Banerjee, global retirement strategist at T. Rowe Price, discusses the firm's research into retirement savers which showed that younger savers tend to follow a homogeneous path as they start out, but older investors — while generally getting more conservative as they age — take personalized, diverse paths as they age and get into their retirement years.
In the Market Call, Aniket Ullal, head of ETF research at CFRA Research, discusses exchange-traded funds and why the firm's methodology has him high on developed international funds right now.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that with inflation running above the Federal Reserve's targets — forcing both the Fed funds 10-year Treasury rates higher — there's room for the Fed to cut rates but not much room for the market to respond to it. As a result, he's saying the market has room to broaden out, with small caps likely to be helped out by upcoming Fed cuts, but not much upside if large-cap stocks have to keep being the engine for growth. Hyman says that recession is unlikely for several quarters, as there is room for modest earnings growth to continue.
Russell Rhoads, associate clinical professor of financial management at Indiana University — cohost of the Academic Market Insights videos on YouTube — says he expects the economy to be sluggish while rate cuts work their way into the next cycle. He says that he'd be looking to underperforming stocks and areas of the market to take the lead as the economy changes and, like Hyman, believes there is potential for small-caps to step forward, helped out by the changing rate environment.
In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier, manager of the Auxier Focus Fund, discusses his long-term value approach and how he's looking for stocks that have been beaten up by bad news that have a chance to regain their good name and recapture their market value.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments says the market can move higher — though with a path that is more bumpy — and the economy can avoid recession, but he also notes that the market is particularly hard to read because current conditions are dramatically different than many past situations. He cites a lot of reasons — from index concentration to fallout from the pandemic — for why looking back at market data seldom yields accurate forecasting right now. Thomas does expect a market slowdown, as earnings have been impressive but growth has been muted, which should make for slower markets ahead.
Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management — the chairperson of the Economic Policy Survey for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the NABE survey released today, which showed a record number of economists view current economic policy as too stimulative. The economists viewed tariffs as the biggest long-term obstacle to growth rather than a stimulator for economic activity, and they also see recession coming into focus in the long-term, noting that current conditions have backed off any downturn to where economists now don't expect to see one until late in 2026 or in 2027.
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Five9 back in the Danger Zone because the company has fallen back into the territory of a "zombie stock," effectively due to run out of money in the next two years. Guske makes a case that the stock — currently valued at roughly $28 a share — is worth maybe six bucks, though he makes it clear he could make a case for it to go to zero.
Plus, Dan Skubiz, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at F/m Investments, talks small-cap stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, is concerned about economic sluggishness and "how the world is going to look and who is going to win" after tariff and rate changes fully play out. Coupled with a stock market where he sees equities as overpriced, that leaves Gayle wanting to be fully diversified, including a full allocation to domestic bonds but also international stocks, where he finds compelling values that he thinks can continue to run. Gayle says that he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, but "anything the Fed does today takes at least nine months to work," so he thinks it will take that long for the market to get some clarity; as a result, he wants to stay invested and buy any dips while waiting for opportunities to become more apparent.
Xander Gray, chief executive at XG Capital Strategies, says that current price levels are high compared to moving averages which suggests that there might be a consolidation or pullback in the offing. Gray — who was last on the show late in 2024, when he called for a market downturn and a recession — says spending and other factors have helped to hold off the recession, though the numbers are showing signs of a weakening that makes the market's current rally hard to trust.
Mitchel Penn, managing director of equity research for Oppenheimer & Co., says that business-development companies have moved past concerns about a spike in credit losses and are now "fairly valued" by the market, meaning that their biggest potential gains for the remainder of the year will come from simply capturing dividend payouts. That's not bad, especially because he expects payouts to remain in the high single-digit range, even after likely interest rate cuts that will carry into 2026.
Financial journalist Allan Sloan, a seven-time winner of business journalism's highest honor, the Loeb Award, says in his latest piece for Barron's that no investment strategy works forever, and that time is now up on the Magnificent Seven stocks. Sloan notes that during the first seven months of 2025, NVidia and Microsoft accounted for more than half of the gain of the entire Standard & Poor's return, but that Apple "was totally rotten and knocked 18 percent off the S&P's return." His point is that most of the seven stocks that have been driving the market for the last few years "are now hitting below their weight," and the top stocks are now losing ground as a group to the index/market itself.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a high-income fund that invests in options on bitcoin -- and that yields a whopping 27 percent -- his ETF of the Week. The fund is relatively new and just topped $500 million in assets, and Rosenbluth says it can be an allocation choice for investors who might otherwise avoid cryptocurrency because they want investments that produce income.
In the Market Call, Cole Smead, portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management, talks about the firm's approach to value investing and what is standing out during a period where he says market leadership is going through a rotation.
Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that as "tertiary assets" like meme stocks and momentum plays have started to break down in the last week, it's a sign that volatility will pick up and that the market is "coming into a 10 to 20 percent pullback in the next month to month and a half." McDonald says that the selloff will be part of a rotation, that the market broadly can recover but with new leadership. He is worried about the potential for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates before inflation has been killed off, which he says will force investors into "portfolios that are much more focused on hard assets."
Dan Sotiroff, senior manager research analyst at Morningstar, discusses this week's news that Vanguard is opening ETF versions of three popular, actively managed stock funds, and talks about the mechanics of the new issues but also what the news means for the broader fund industry.
And with Chuck about to become a first-time grandfather, he chats with Matt Gellene, head of consumer investments at Bank of America, about what families can and should do to save and invest for raising children, paying for college and more, and for helping youngsters develop healthy attitudes about money.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that there are signs that the economy is slowing, but he believes rate cuts can help the economy keep earnings growth going and can forestall any recession. "Betting against things to get better over the long run is not a very smart bet," Stone says, so he's suggesting investors don't let worries get the best of them now. Stone says that "A bet on Europe is a bet against technology," so while he understands concerns that investors have with valuations — particularly with the prices of tech stocks — he is not tilting in directions that might move him away from what has been working during the current bull run.
Avi Gilburt, founder of ElliottWave Trader, does think the bull market will be coming to an end — and a long, slow, difficult end at that — but he says the signs of the bear market he has been anticipating for several years now are not clear yet. "Until the market gives us the sign that a bear market has begun," Gilburt says, "upside is still very much intact,m but you need to be very cautious as you approach the market over the coming years." He discusses the signs he is looking for and just how ugly he thinks the eventual downturn will get.
Corrin Maier, vice president at TruStage, discusses "payment-protection products," a form of insurance that consumers can make on big-ticket purchases that can protect them in the event of job loss or other hardship. She helps consumers determine whether these options are worth their fees.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, says that he expects the stock market to go through "a 4% to 6% normal, mild pullback" in short order, a downturn that he says is likely to be good for the market, helping it get ready to benefit from positive economic news and an eventual cut in interest rates. Detrick says that he expects developed Europe to remain strong, and he believes investors who are heeding market worries should rebalance their portfolios to get back onto their plan, because diversification pays off when a market is touchy about headline events.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that while warm Krispy Kreme donuts may make people happy, the company's stock — which he has warned about since it went through its IPO in June 2021 — is stale. He says that this is a meme stock with a negative economic book value and real potential to go to zero.
Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, brings his disciplined, earnings-driven approach to stocks to the Market Call.
Eric Stein, chief investment officer, Voya Investment Management, says that if the economy can muddle through until the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it will be positive for the stock market and the broader economy, allowing for 2026 to be another year that continues the winning streak for stocks. Stein says that he believes markets "get desensitized to similar news over time," and that the current markets may still be fixated on tariffs, but "general tariff noise" is now priced in and aren't enough to derail the market or create a recession. He says that economic changes, including the building deregulation story, will help small-cap stocks move from laggards to leaders.
Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, expects the Federal Reserve to make "a couple of cuts this year, followed by two or three cuts next year," and that those moves will be made while inflation stays at current levels or rises slightly. Like Stein, Freund thinks changes in economic conditions will help the market broaden out to include small-caps, and while he is worried about the market facing a rough patch in the fall, he said the market should be able to enter 2026 with room to run.
Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull.com, says that when he examines the technical patterns he doesn't "see any reason to not want to continue to buy the market here." Bishop expects the market to suffer a 10 percent correction in the fall, but wind up higher. He thinks 2026 is shaping up as a year when the market could post low double-digit gains again.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about new rules that allow private equity, private credit, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in retirement plans, and whether that access is really a good idea.
Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager for the Muhlenkamp Fund, says in today's Money Life Market Call that one of his big fears right now is in order to deal with government debt, authorities will de-value the dollar, so he has been adding gold and precious metals names to the portfolio to hedge against that potential. He is also looking at deregulation as a possible driver for future as well, and while he is a value-oriented manager, he noted that there are plenty of ideas that look promising despite a market that is at record highs.
David Lau, chief executive officer at DPL Financial, discusses how lifetime income and annuitizing retirement savings has become particularly important now, given uncertainty over the future of Social Security. He notes that investors who are considering annuities may want to be making the purchase before interest rates start to fall, but he also notes that annuity products that promise downside protection against stock market risk are likely to fall into the category of "too good to be true."
Plus, in the ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes for an actively managed international small-cap fund with his ETF of the Week.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that with no one talking about recession these days, he says "it is the one thing the market is at risk of having happen right now" because the market isn't pricing in any potential downturn. Recession is not his base case, but he says there is an economic soft patch to get through that will take the economy to the edge of stall speed; he does think the market will get through that to finish the year higher, with the Standard & Poor's 500 moving hitting 6,600. Luschini thinks investors will want to ride that upturn well diversified, including allocations to international stocks — and particularly developed Europe — where he thinks valuations will help to keep this year's run-up rolling along.
Joseph Schuster, chief executive officer at IPOX Schuster, says that the market for initial public offerings has been hot this year — a fund based on his landmark IPO index is up more than 30 percent year-to-date — and has some more solid names that are ready for their roll-out, including financial companies Bullish and Miami International Holdings, which make their debuts this week.
Plus, with the S&P 500 having closed Tuesday above 6,400 for the first time, Chuck has a recommendation for how investors should be reacting to the news, and the move they should be making here with the market at highs.
Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the evolution boom in artificial intelligence is the kind of generational market event that only happens "once every 20 or 30 years." He says it will be "very meaningful and we believe very good not only for the economy but for the markets." He is optimistic that the increased productivity created by the AI revolution can help the economy grow its way out of the fiscal concerns over deficits and other issues that overhang the market. That said, he does see mild turbulence ahead, but without a major correction or downturn as the market winds through the rest of 2025. His advice for that turbulence: "Buckle up."
Paulo Costa, senior behavioral economist at Vanguard, discusses the firm's research into the emotional and time value of advice, which showed that the benefits of financial advice extend far beyond simply having expertise at the helm making investment choices.
Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about the use of one or two popular funds to be an entire portfolio — a strategy particularly popular with members of the FIRE movement (Financial Independence, Retire Early) — and he examines the pros and cons of making simplicity the cornerstone of an investment portfolio.
Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, says that with the purple haze of fiscal policy uncertainty and tariffs having lifted, the "pace of natural advancement" doesn't have a lot of room left in 2025, but after a slower grind into the end of the year, she thinks that 2026 "is shaping up to be an acceleration type of a year." She expects broader stock market participation to help with that, though she says that breadth will extend to the 493 stocks that are in the Standard & Poor's 500 but not the Magnificent Seven, rather than to small caps. Agati also said that the international rally thus far this year is likely to slow significantly.
David Trainer of New Constructs put "unattractive asset managers" in the Danger Zone this week, and singled out Virtus Investment Partners as a prime example, saying it wasn't just that the money manager has a suite of mostly unattractive funds, but that its results as a stock could get ugly too.
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's back-to-school shopping survey, which surprisingly showed that fewer Americans are saying that school shopping is putting pressure on their finances this year. One reason why is that shoppers say they have changed some of the ways they shop in response to higher inflation.
Plus, in the intro segment, Chuck discusses his experience with a warranty program — something he normally disdains and avoids — that started out looking ugly, but wound up with a happy ending.
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that his calculations on the stock market show that despite being near record-high levels, the market is "slightly underpriced relative to fair value," meaning it has room to move higher from here. Callahan says that a small-cap rally and market changes that started to surface a year ago were disrupted by the tariff tantrum but should return in the next year. Moreover, he sees continued economic growth, fueled by strong earnings and growth of the money supply rather than reduction in interest rates, which he says should be enough to support gains even while investors worry about downdrafts, corrections and recessions that he does not think are on the immediate horizon.
Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar, brings the firm's bottoms-up fundamentals-focused, discounted-cash-flow analysis system to the Market Call.
Kenneth Burdon, an attorney with Simpson Thacher and Bartlett, discusses a court case between a closed-end fund activist investor and four fund sponsors that has made it to the U.S. Supreme Court and that could change the face of activism and the ability for investors to force a fund's board to take steps to narrow discounts and improve its investment prospects. Because investors often buy closed-end funds at a discount hoping to profit when that pricing discrepancy corrects, the suit could impact the way investors view discounts and a fund's prospects for future gains.
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says that the market has been dealing with "cross-currents," where concerns about tariffs increasing inflation have been offset by declining oil prices, and where a lack of rate cuts has been countered by record corporate profits. It all combines to create a market that Timmer says can get past the concerns to deliver modest gains moving forward; he makes a case for domestic markets, noting they are not as overvalued as investors might expect after several big years and that they are not facing significant recession or downturn potential.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a brand new fund — part of a just-launched suite of funds that use options to generate income off of traditional sector indexes — as his ETF of the Week.
Wealth manager Derek Ober of Ober Financial discusses the latest release from the Northwestern Mutual 2025 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that a growing number of Americans plan to leave an inheritance to their heirs, but fewer people expect to receive money from an inheritance. Ober says that a lack of communication between the generations is at the heart of the issue.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says he expects both the stock market and the economy to face a "soft patch" that will increase volatility and mute returns for the rest of the year, but he believes conditions are strong enough that there will be no recession and that those year-end doldrums will lead to improvement and gains in 2026. Cronk, who also is president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, notes that his firm has already set year-end price targets for next year, and is forecasting 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 as the "midpoint target" in that forecast.
Jenny Harrington, chief executive officer at Gilman Hill Asset Management — the author of "Dividend Investing: Dependable Income to Navigate All Market Environments" — makes her debut on the show, bringing her take on equity-income investing to the Market Call.
Plus, Chip Lupo of WalletHub, discusses the site's 2025 Household Debt Survey, which showed that 44 percent of people expect their household debt level to increase in the next 12 months, and that 55 percent of respondents think they will still have debt to pay when they die.
Nick Sargen, consultant and senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that investors haven't really seen the economic impact of tariffs and other policies that experts were warning the public about, but they are seeing those issues now. "Fasten your seatbelts," Sargen warns, "you're just beginning to see the impacts." While not calling for a recession, Sargen says he sees headwinds for the market because "I don't understand how the market can keep setting record highs every day when now we are confronting major uncertainty."
Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says she sees "a lot more downside risk than upside potential" for the market right now, noting that it will be hard for the Standard & Poor's 500 to top 6,500 in the next few months whereas a decline could drop the index "into the low 5,000s." As a result, DeGarner has made her own portfolio particularly defensive, holding "mostly Treasuries" because there is "more risk than reward to be long stocks" now. Further, Garner says it's a "sell-the-rallies market for gold and silver," largely because she expects the gold rally to end -- and for precious metals to potentially take a big fall -- when the dollar gets a little stronger.
Plus, Rita Choula, senior director of caregiving for the AARP Public Policy Institute, discusses its Caregiving in the U.S. 2025 study, which showed that more than 63 million Americans are providing ongoing complex care for family members, and that they are sacrificing their financial security, health and well-being in many cases in order to do it.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Discovery Fund and the Bexil Investment Trust, says that while the rally in gold is long in the tooth — at record highs having lasted twice as long as the standard rally — but he makes the case that it still has plenty of room to run, boosted by purchases made by central banks around the world. Winmill says that a rising dollar might end the rally, but that's not in his forecast; he sees rates staying low or stable, providing enough fuel that the price of gold-mining stocks "could be a triple from here." David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts Peloton Interactive back into The Danger Zone, noting that the company — which is reporting earnings this week — has turned into a meme stock that has doubled its price from recent lows, but which hasn't improved a negative economic book value, meaning the current rally could be the proverbial dead-cat bounce. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association discusses the latest Beer Purchasers Index, which showed a big decline from a year ago — meaning there could be an economic slowdown ahead — but a big improvement from the numbers released a month ago, which would signal that buyers are in a "holding pattern" waiting on tariff and other news before making purchase decisions. Plus, Chuck goes off the news on how a "boring" July that saw the market reach 10 record highs may have been setting up a rough August, and how the numbers could be tougher to get a read on depending on government changes in the future.
Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says he's "not super comfortable right now because everyone else is."While he doesn't see anything specific that could derail the markets, he notes that times when investors throw caution to the wind typically end badly, and that August historically has been a month for market surprises. Ladner says that earnings have been good enough to drive success this year, and that should continue, though it may reflect sluggish economic conditions and slow down a bit before the year ends. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — digs into his firm's data to look at whether the double-digit yields that are easily found in many closed-end fund asset categories are real and worth pursuing or if they are dangerous and headed for a fall. Plus David Miller, co-founder of the Catalyst Mutual Funds, brings his mix of wide-moat and fundamental research with insider-buying and other factors to the Market Call.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, says he expects a jump in consumer prices to 3.5 percent by the end of the year, and — while he thinks the move will be temporary or a one-time response to resolution of tariff uncertainty — he expects that to make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting rates. That's especially true because he expects economic growth to slow from about 3% early in the year to just above 1% by year's end. Despite that damper on growth, he says the economy will avoid a recession, muddling through a period of doldrums. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the ETF variation of one of the greatest mutual funds of all time his pick for the ETF of the Week, and Chuck tackles Wednesday's news from the Federal Reserve, noting that if rate cuts happen this year — he's been skeptical for months — they will still disappoint investors and economists who now seem certain that the Fed will move at its next meeting in September.
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors — also the executive chairman at Hive Blockchain — says that investors should adjust to market conditions that are “sunny but … windy,” with more volatility and changing conditions but generally pleasant and not hard to navigate through “because we’re in a secular bull market.” Holmes discusses the recent strength in the gold market — where he advocates for a mix between holding the metal and owning miners — and in crypto markets, where he says adoption is key to continued growth and value creation. Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders discusses the firm’s annual Retirement Survey, which showed that Americans who are retired are facing a reality that is significantly different than what they expected during their earning and accumulating years, which is adding surprising amounts of financial stress to their golden years. Plus Chuck answers a question from a listener who, like Chuck’s wife Gail, has a portfolio that is too heavy on equities, where he needs to figure out how to best make changes to better reflect age and risk tolerance.
Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that he expects a correction in the not-too-distant future, but he says that it is more likely to be about time — where the market trades sideways and lets the fundamentals catch up to recent price activity than it is about stock prices. In fact, Harris is not exceptionally worried about the current rally ending, because while the market is up about 30 percent since its April lows, it is only up about 15 percent in the last year. That's good, Harris says, "but not too far too fast," especially because current performance is within the ranges of historical norms. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says he still expects the Federal Reserve to make two rate cuts before year's end, but he's not expecting any moves when the central bank meets this week, and he says that rate cuts have already been mostly priced into the market , meaning that when reductions finally happen they will not have the full, classic impact that the market expects from cuts. Plus Drew Miyawaki, director of managed investment solutions for Westwood Holdings Group, talks about allocating assets now amid global uncertainty and ways to play foreign markets by focusing at least as much on a country's government structure and geopolitics as on its markets.
Lyle Fitterer, senior portfolio manager for the Baird Funds — manager of the Baird Municipal Bond and Baird Strategic Muni Bond funds — says that absolute yields on fixed income looks pretty attractive, but that muni bonds have lagging some other bond types through the beginning of the year, but are poised now for better results in the second half of the year. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality — chairperson of the Business Conditions Survey for the National Association for Business Economics — says that the July survey released today shows that corporate economists have reduced the odds that there's a recession moving forward, but noted that their employers are taking a more cautious approach as they deal with elevated costs in light of tariff changes and other policies. Kyle Guske, analyst at New Constructs, revisits SunRun as a pick in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock bas been cut dramatically after a huge decline in value, but recently has had a bounce from new lows that is setting up buyers for the next big decline. Plus, in the Market Call, Patrick Healey, founder/president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks about stocks and finding a dynamic balance in current conditions.
Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, says he's expecting "green lights from here" for the market with a lot of policy moves by the Trump Administration getting to where they are sorted out and where they will impact the market later in the year, including de-regulation efforts which he believes will be an active investment play. Ewing noted that the stock market has already hit 12 all-time highs this year "and I think we are going to hit a lot more before the end of the year," noting that he started 2025 with his price target for the Standard & Poor's 500 at 6,900, a level he still thinks will hold through some volatility and a possible correction before we reach the new year. Jason Akus, head of healthcare investing for Aberdeen Investments, says that current conditions for health care and biotech investing are making for "one of the most challenging, difficult and dislocated environments I've seen," but he sees "green shoots" for growth that could change the sectors' fortunes. Plus, personal finance journalist Brian O'Connor goes "Off the News" to discuss his recent New York Times story on how Americans spend their lives saving for retirement but have no plan for cashing out and managing their assets without running out of money.
John Silvia, chief executive officer, at Dynamic Economic Strategy, says that anticipated price hikes caused by tariffs haven't happened because the business community didn't want to increase prices until it had some certainty on the taxation levels. Now that the market is approaching clarity, he expects a raft of price increases, and for the economic impacts of the tariffs to hit home, making the economy more sluggish, but not pushing it over the edge into recession. Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade corporate bonds at Payden & Rygel, discusses the hot areas of corporate and high-yield bonds and whether their stellar performance can continue when the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates, which she is expecting to start soon. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a multi-factor index fund his #ETFoftheWeek, and Hari Srinivasan, chief executive officer at iCover Insure, discusses why nearly half of Americans don't have life insurance.
Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, knows that it's hard to get investors focused on fixed income when the stock market is flirting with record highs, but he says that equities are poised to experience slower gains moving forward at a point where bonds are delivering solid, steady income. He's not backing away from stocks, but with the forward price/earnings ratio for stocks near its own record highs, he is taking a more defensive posture because the math suggests that "bonds can compete with stocks" moving forward. Rob Williams discusses the 9th annual Modern Wealth Survey from Charles Schwab, which showed that Americans believe it takes roughly $840,000 in net worth to be "financially comfortable," up from about $780,000 a year ago. Plus, in the Market Call, James Abate, head of fundamental strategies at Horizon Investments — portfolio manager for the Centre Funds — talks infrastructure investing and more.
Veteran Wall Street observer Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to review how his annual predictions for the year ahead are turning out midway into 2025, and despite the headlines and the volatility and uncertainty surrounding the market, Doll appears to be on pace for his best year ever, with at least nine of his forecasts looking like they might finish the year in the money. Doll says the stock market may not have much more upside left this year, particularly if the Federal Reserve doesn't lower rates and inflation stays higher for longer, but even if those things mute the market, he doesn't think they will send it falling significantly from here. Jim Lee, founder of StratFi, says that benign long-term trends for stocks have made him somewhat bullish, leading him to expect gains for the market in the 5 to 10% range for the rest of the year. He says the lower-growth economy remains expansionary, almost a Goldilocks situation for the economics, though he notes that politics continue to take the clarity out of these conditions and will keep making investors nervous. Nick Maggiulli, chief operating officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management and blogger at Of Dollars and Data brings his numbers-driven approach to retirement planning in his new book, "The Wealth Ladder: Proven Strategies for Every Step of Your Financial Life." He discusses the book — and how consumers can determine how much they can comfortably spend each day and more — in the Book Interview.
Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the uncertainty over tariffs, geo-politics, inflation and more has "kind of melted away," allowing themarkets to perform well and recapture record highs.Kalish says that while he likes the looks of global markets and wants a more balanced approach with increased exposure to Europe, Japan and other economies, he hasn't given up on the case of American exceptionalism in the market, especially with the way domestic companies have driven the artificial-intelligence boom that has been driving domestic markets higher. Author Paul Vigna returns to Money Life to discuss his new book — The Almightier: How Money Became God, Greed Became Virtue, and Debt Became Sin — which is out this week and which examines how billionaires became false idols as savers and investors in the U.S. were forced to take more control of their financial futures. David Trainer of New Constructs turns to a fund that gets a five-star rating from Morningstar for this week's installment of The Danger Zone, saying that the Donoghue Forlines Momentum fund has investors paying too much for a portfolio that tilts towards unattractive and dangerous stocks. In the Market Call, Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors discusses a core-and-satellite investment strategy built around the use of exchange-traded funds.
Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, likens current markets to "clear-air turbulence," when a plane flying through blue skies winds up being buffeted by high winds and conditions that are hard to see. Weathering that wild ride, travelers can reach their destination, and Krumpelman thinks the Standard & Poor's 500 is headed to 6,600 — the same level he was forecasting at the start of the year — with 7,000 a possible high-water mark. Krumpelman says that trusting the data showing a strong economy should make investors confident that the market will overcome headline noise and turn any downturns into buying opportunities. In The NAVigator segment, Rob Shaker — portfolio manager of Shaker Financial Services — discusses "discount-capture investing," and how the market's wild moves around tariff announcements this year made the strategy particularly sensitive to the emotional changes of investors. Shaker says that discount fallout from tariff news was particularly big and fast, but conditions normalized quickly, rewarding patience and risk-taking. Plus, in the Market Call, Eric Marshall, president and portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management, talks about bottoms-up investing and finding management with solid long-term stories that can weather current headline risk.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the Channel Capital Research Institute — author of Follow the Fed to Investment Success — says he does not believe that President Trump will fire Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, and that he also thinks Powell will continue to ignore the president's pressure to cut rates. Given recent numbers, Roberts thinks Powell and the Fed can wait longer before making any rate cuts, potentially holding off through both the July and September meetings before making a move. Meanwhile, he says that large-cap stocks will continue to be the play, with small-caps needing a rate cut to get out of the doldrums. In the Market Call, Bill Davis of Stance Capital and the Hennessy Sustainable ETF, talks about how current economic uncertainty is hurting the market, even as it has returned to record-high levels. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a new, actively managed "dynamic value" fund as his "ETF of the Week."
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist for the Hartford Funds, says that uncertainty, by itself, hasn't derailed global markets and slowed growth, but that it could be starting to happen now with signs that there has been a lag time impacting tariff impacts and that core prices are starting to rise. Jacobson says that U.S. investors have become "complacent and they're pricing in a bit of a Goldilocks scenario;" she is still positive on equities, but she is underweight U.S. stocks and overweight emerging markets, Europe and Japan.Michael Gayed, portfolio manager of the new Free Markets ETF — as well as the ATAC Funds — discusses how deregulation policies will benefit certain industries and businesses and how reduced compliance and other regulatory costs will result in bigger profits and more capital expenditures, and will particularly benefit small-cap stocks. Plus, Jesse Abercrombie discusses Edward Jones' "Pulse of North America" survey — conducted at the height of April's post-tariff announcement market volatility — which showed that nearly three-quarters of Americans are optimistic about their ability to live a "financially fulfilled life" despite current, ongoing volatility concerns.
Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, says he is optimistic for the rest of 2025, though he expects choppiness as the Standard & Poor's 500 moves toward a year-end target of 6,650. Newton says the economy has been resilient through the headline risks and that the market is in a "Goldilocks state because the Fed is certainly going to cut three times between now and next summer, earnings are coming in good and yet there's still a wall of worry," making for "a very favorable path for investing in the second half of this year." Economist and New York University professor Howard Yaruss says that the economy is entering "literally uncharted territory" when it comes to tariffs, with free international trade being upended by current government policies. Yaruss is worried that the economic impacts of tariffs haven't truly hit yet, but he says the lag is about to end and that means the numbers will start to get ugly and could push the U.S. economy into recession and/or stagflation. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., talks about investing in companies with growing dividends, noting that the growth of the payout is more important to him than a simple high yield number.
Brad Case, chief economist at Middleburg Communities, says that while Americans have been complaining about the housing market and available home stock, the market is not far off from historic norms. That said, he also discussed some recent research he did showing that Americans would be better off renting a home — and investing the savings they get on various aspects of ownership — than they are by tying up the biggest chunk of their monies in a home, which he considers to be an asset that puts up comparatively small gains over long periods of time. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, comes through with an attractive stock selection, picking Halliburton as a company that is likely to benefit from beating earnings soon. The pick follows up on the Danger Zone segment from last week, when Trainer singled out Caesars Entertainment as a stock likely to miss projected earnings and to be punished by the market as a result. Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors, says investors have moved from being highly pessimistic when tariffs were first announced and the market was tanking in April into more of an equilibrium. With the market reaching near record levels, Rotblut says it is a good sign that optimism hasn't completely surged; that said, he noted that investor sentiment is rising, and discussed how AAII is now using sentiment as more of determinant on trading when it moves in ways that might signal a potential market reversal.
Vincent Randazzo, founder and chief market strategist at ViewRight Advisors, says that while the stock market appears overbought in the short-term — and may need some time to get through it — the longer-term indicators are bullish, and suggest that the rally that has been in place for three years now can continue. Randazzo says that indicators are showing that the market appears to be broadening out, and that improving market participation and improving investor confidence should help power the market through headline risks. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — says he expects three first-half laggards in municipal bonds, senior loans and master limited partnerships to become leaders for the rest of 2025, and suggests attractive options for riding those trends. In the Market Call, Garvin Jabusch, co-founder and chief investment officer at Green Alpha Advisors discusses his efforts to find companies that are truly innovative and driving long-term change rather than riding the coattails of a hot industry or sector.
It's a wide-ranging show today, with Ben Cook, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Energy Transition and Hennessy Mid-Stream funds, giving his latest take on the energy sector, noting that the industry is well-positioned to at least not be hurt while tariff policies play out, even as the U.S. has become the world's largest oil-producing nation and the OPEC nations are looking to improve their fortunes. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF — which he featured as ETF of the Week at the beginning of March and which gained 78 percent during the second quarter of 2025 — noting that miners and spot crypto funds serve different purposes in a portfolio, but that both are poised for more growth now. Melissa Stephenson discusses her research for Sudokubliss.com that looked at the theme parks that provide good value for your money while keeping lines short enough that complaints are few, and Chuck does a deep dive on the so-called "Trump accounts" that were created within the budget bill that was signed into law last week. These accounts give $1,000 to every baby born in the country to U.S. citizens between 2025 through 2028 — including the grandchild Chuck's daughter is expecting in August — and he talks about the benefits of the program (beyond the cash infusion) and compares it to other savings vehicles.
Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares and the author of the China Last Night blog, says that the government of China is "doing the things that Trump wants them to be doing" for domestic policy purposes, which is why he sees the signs of a U.S.-China trade deal in the works. He says in The Big Interview that neither side can win in a trade war, but that both sides can move forward sharply and strongly with agreement, even if tariff levels remain high and in place indefinitely. Ahern says that "the worst is behind us" on dollar weakness, noting that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates until later in the year, allowing the dollar to stabilize in the interim while tariff policies are being finalized. Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com discusses government projections showing that standard monthly premiums for Medicare Part B will rise by more than 11 percent in 2026, and will likely be subjected to higher-than-expected increases potentially for the next decade. Plus, Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses research on how Americans are using Google in AI mode and how it is changing their search results, how they shop, find advice, access news and more.
Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services, says the economy and market have moved off of potential worst-case scenarios into "this manageable camp," where it must get through potholes and uncertainty as the economy "flirts with stall speed" in growth. Still, Williams sees some powerful tailwinds that could drive the market higher in the second half of the year, but the concerns make it that investors should remember that "yield is your friend." "Be fully invested in equities," Williams says, "but don't be stealing from fixed income yet to overload on the equity side. You will want that yield if things get bumpy." Bob Rosen, author of "Detach: Ditch Your Baggage to Live a More Fulfilling Life" discusses how to break away from uncertainty — which he says is a constant in life, and not just present in times like today — to be happy and productive even when conditions make that hard. Plus Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey showing that the tariff uncertainty has made consumers — anticipating price hikes — more interested in earning credit card rewards, and which bonuses consumers find particularly attractive now.
Nick Maggiulli, chief operating officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management — the author of the "Of Dollars and Data" blog — says that while recoveries can happen faster now than in the past due to advances in technology and information, investors who always expect the market to bounce back quickly from any setback have learned the wrong lesson. While he is not calling for a protracted downturn, he is suggesting investors want to protect themselves; to that end, he discusses how proper diversification practically forces individuals to buy and hold something that will lose money, even when everything else is doing well. That makes it hard to do, even if it's the best path. Maggiulli also discusses achieving financial independence — and the mindset to enjoy it — and more. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, resurrects some of the firm's research looking at which stocks are most in jeopardy of an earnings miss when second-quarter numbers are released in the coming weeks, and singles out one well-known gaming stock that he says is due for a miss and a big fall. And in the Market Call, Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, mixes growth-at-a-reasonable price investing with his long-term thematic approach to the markets.
Jose Torres, senior economist for Interactive Brokers, says that the economy is about to get past tariffs — "the huge negative of the Trump policy mix" — and move to lighter taxation, milder regulations, subdued energy costs, rising factory production and, hopefully, rising employment as well," which creates a bullish outlook for the economy and the stock market into 2026. Torres says he expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates this month and says the central bank has plenty of ammunition to fend off any recessionary pressures left while inflation gets through the initial tariff impacts. Torres noted that IBKR's forecast trader suggests 25 percent odds that the Fed will trim this month, but he believes that's low and that the Fed has been too tight. Kyle Brown, chief executive officer at Trinity Capital, says government policies have been paying off for business-development companies as the private credit markets have seen a spike in demand as a result of the capital expenditures that American businesses are undertaking in order to achieve the government's near-shoring mandates. He says that private credit providers are well-positioned in the current rate environment, but also could benefit from rate cuts reducing costs. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a "dividend dogs" fund as his "ETF of the Week."
Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, tells the story of a stock scam that most recently centered on Ostin Technology, a Chinese company traded on the Nasdaq that recently popped to over $9 per share before losing 95 percent of its value in a single day. While the company is a cautionary tale for investors, Greenberg's bigger warning involves similar frauds that spring up around other companies overnight — that are fueled by investor greed and AI-powered fakery — which he describes as nearly impossible to stop or end in what he calls "the golden age of grift." Financial adviser Anthony Holds discusses the latest release from Northwestern Mutual's 2025 Planning & Progress Study, which showed that nearly 70 percent of Americans say financial uncertainty makes them depressed and anxious. Plus, in the Market Call, Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence Capital Management, talks about finding stocks that benefit from being at the chokepoints in the supply chain for the next big thing.
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy for Global X ETFs says the fundamentals are strong enough that the market and economy should be in better shape by year's end, provided the wildcards of tariffs and geopolitics don't interfere. Discussing his outlook for the rest of 2025, Helfstein expects different leadership, noting that he favors low-beta strategies, plus the defense technology and cyber-security sectors. Helfstein says that growth stocks are "more profitable than they have ever been," and says that investors who missed out on the artificial-intelligence boom can get in now at valuations that are reasonable because the industry had a recovery since April that was more sluggish than the rest of the market. Susan Fahy discusses the VantageScore Credit Gauge for May, which showed an increase in early-stage delinquencies, including in mortgages, and whether it's a sign that consumers are starting to struggle. Plus Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs for Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "autocallable income fund," and how it represents less of a step in the evolution of options-based strategies than a "new asset class" for investors looking for high levels of income.
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, says that the volatility and headline risks of the first half of 2025 haven't changed the outlook for the market and economy, which can grind through the rest of the year and into 2026 with modest gains. Haworth acknowledges "a lot of questions still to be answered," but he says that most of the answers will be within degrees of expectations, and a lack of surprises should allow the market to grind higher. That said, Haworth said investors will want to be properly diversified to protect themselves against the volatility and the news risks. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carvana back in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock — which he first singled out in April of 2019 — has roared back from a low of $4 per share in December 22 to gain more than 50 percent year-to-date and nearly 150 percent in the last year, rising to a stock valuation "that implies that Carvana will sell as many vehicles as General Motors." Plus Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, on their latest survey research, which showed that 60 percent of Americans are uncomfortable with their current level of emergency savings, and half of Americans don’t have enough emergency savings to cover three months’ expenses.
Dustin Reid, chief strategist for fixed income at Mackenzie Investments, says he expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts in July, but to be moved into making a double cut — half a percent — in September, and worries that the central bank may be waiting too long to act, as the labor market is starting to show some cracks. Reid said a bigger cut might be taken as a positive by the market if inflation hasn't spiked, labor markets are slow but steady and the action suggests that the Fed is trying to stay ahead of the action. That action and uncertainty has Reid favoring intermediate bonds now, with two- to five-year maturities. John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says he is risk-on right now, being fully invested and continuing to ride the wave that started churning after the stock market bottomed out in April. Kosar acknowledges that the market's rebound has been fast and big, and so he's expecting a reversion to the mean that would push him to a risk-off position, ahead of what he considers a foreseeable market tumble. Plus, in The NAVigator segment, Mike Schueller — co-manager of the Allspring Income Opportunities fund — says he foresees a "muddle-through economy," which is actually a good environment for high-yield bonds, which face little default risk at a point where recession has "receded into the background."
David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's 2025 Individual Investor Survey, which shows that investors were so satisfied with the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and '24 that they are expecting less this year, but they have only dropped their expectations from roughly 17 percent down to about 12 percent, and Goodsell notes that financial advisers sugest those numbers aren't realistic or responsible. Goodsell says he believes the market is heading towards "a new age of diminished expectations." Sociologist and author Juliet Schor discusses her latest book, "Four Days a Week: The Life-Changing Solution for Reducing Employee Stress, Improving Well-Being, and Working Smarter, leaning into whether the business community and the government could ever adopt a massive workplace change on a broad scale. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into current events to examine an advocacy fund with his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the "Buy, borrow and die" strategy a financial adviser is pitching to his friend's elderly, wealthy mother.
Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says he sees continued expansion in the United States and a slowing in Europe and other international markets, which contributes to why he is mostly neutral on allocations, as tariff plays and international stimulus efforts and more creates positive potential around the globe. Morris says a neutral stance makes sense because there is so much uncertainty right now that it is hard to have strong convictions about what the market can do next. Indrani De, global head of investment research for FTSE Russell discusses the ongoing Russell Reconstitution — the exercise of changing benchmark indexes to reflect corporate evolutions and avoid surprises — and what the current effort (which becomes final on Friday) reveals about the stock market and the breadth of growth now. Plus Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst/Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com, discusses current levels of consumer sentiment which show that nearly two-thirds of Americans are expecting that tariffs will have a negative impact on their personal finances.
Stacie Mintz, head of quantitative equity for PGIM Quantitative Solutions, says that equity valuations in emerging markets are at their most attractive level relative to U.S. stocks in decades. That's not a surprise, as emerging markets have underperformed domestic markets for the last 13 years, but Mintz says the time has come for diversification to pay off. While the headline risks of tariffs, trade wars and geopolitics loom large,she said current values are compelling enough that investors should be comfortable waiting for a payoff when the news cycle calms down. Jasmine Escalera discusses a survey done by LiveCareer which showed that "ghost job postings" — listings for phantom jobs that don't exist — have become a staple of the hiring process for nearly half of all American human-resources pros. Plus Richard Howe, editor of the Stock Spin-off Investing newsletter, returns to the Market Call, talking about what can make spin-offs attractive, compares the roll-out of subsidiaries to the initial public offering process and discusses howlong spin-off effects linger.
Ed Shill, managing partner at the Wealth Enhancement Group, says he sees the market either continuing to climb the proverbial wall of worry or getting complacent, and he fears that it's the latter after the sharp rebound from April's decline. "Right now the market is overbought," Shill says in the Market Call, where he recommends "putting airbags on," using stops to lock in profits and being prepared to step back from markets until conditions improve. In The Big Interview, Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that the Federal Reserve faces a challenge getting the market to understand its motivation for any rate cuts it makes later this year. He expects a rate cut later this year, likely in September, but he says the reaction of the market — whether it gives the classic bullish response or if it reacts as it did in 2024 when cuts had less impact than expected, particularly on bond markets — will depend on what the market thinks is the Fed's motivation for a cut. Plus, Anthony Holds of Holds Wealth Advisors discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2025 Planning & Progress Study, in which nearly 70% of Americans reported that financial uncertainty has made them feel depressed and anxious.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he came into the year expecting that the growth and inflation backdrop would support reasonable corporate earnings that could push the market higher. He still believes that -- despite expecting a slowdown, struggles with increased market volatility and higher inflation as a result of tariff impacts -- and said that modest earnings growth will result in single-digit equity gains for the rest of the year. Levitt made the case for expanded international investments, but said he would lean into quality as a factor, noting that high-grade companies will give the most shelter if the storm clouds deliver more trouble than Levitt and Invesco are currently forecasting. Certified financial therapist Nate Astle discusses a Beyond Finance study which showed the deep connections between financial strain and emotional well-being, suggesting that money isn't just a numbers game but a mental-health issue. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers listener questions about closed-end funds and whether premiums and returns of capital are as bad for investors as they are cracked up to be, whether interval funds are worth the illiquidity risk and more.
Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments, says she is concerned about market volatility for the remainder of the year, especially as tariff impacts work their way further into the economy and as we see some resolution on their status. While tariffs pose the risk of creating an exogenous shock — precisely what Hermann worried about triggering a recession when she last visited the show in February — she says that recession risk now is actually lower than it was when trade policies were made public in early April. She also discusses the firm's 2025 MegaTrends report, which looks at global debt investing, talking about how deficit spending and other concerns will impact credit markets over the next decade. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, checks in ahead of today's Fed meeting and announcement on what he expects from central bankers for the remainder of the year and whether cuts — whenever they start — will have the classic result investors are clamoring for. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a play on the market's recent momentum with his pick for the "ETF of the Week."
It's a tale of two forecasts on today's edition of Money Life, as two experts come to very different conclusions of how 2025 will play out. In The Big Interview, Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says he expects the market to drop "5 to 10 percent easily" as tariffs, accompanying inflation and a slowing economy take hold during the third quarter and stick around for at least six months. Christopher notes that surprises could push the market down even further, back to or past April lows, but he noted that he'd be buying there, because he believes the United States was oversold early this year and will represent a particularly good value once it digests the expected downturn. In the Talking Technicals interview, however, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, sets a 7000 target for the Standard & Poor's 500, up about 20 percent from current levels in the next 12 months. Fox says the sell-off in April did a lot of the "technical damage" necessary to set up a rally, and has us now at a point where "the path of least resistance is higher." Fox's forecast, however, also is based on solid fundamentals, which he believes can overcome the current headline risks that are dominating the landscape now. Plus Drake Shadwell discusses the latest research from Clever Real Estate showing the current trends on how long houses are staying on the market and what that means for the strength or weakness of the economy.
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that "Asset classes don't die, they just go to sleep for awhile," and they wake up when there are changes to the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that domestic strategies about trade, tariffs and global defense represent that background change, which is why he's recommending diversification, and considering commodities, international stocks and more. Schutte says he's expecting rate cuts late in the year and thinks the economy can avoid recession, but not a slowdown. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, finishes the firm's three-week look at troubling dividend trends, this week focusing on "dividend traps," companies where the current price is so high that a big decline would mean that the dividend isn't worth sticking around for. Previously, New Constructs featured "fake dividend stocks" and "false dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone. Plus economist Brian Lewandowski of the University of Colorado Boulder looks at the June 2025 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, out today, which showed that economists expect sluggish economic growth and persistent, higher inflation into 2026; on average, the economists felt those conditions were not likely to create a recession.
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial says he expects the market has enough momentum to break through to new record highs, and soon. Led by tech stocks, Turnquist expects the move off the April lows to continue, though he acknowledges that the macro backdrop "is extremely messy." If the market can overcome trade uncertainties, Turnquist says that when new highs are achieved three months apart, it is typically a good sign that a volatile market can continue overcome bad news and continue upward trends. The NAVigator segment features an interviewed taped in New York at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum with Tonnie Wybensinger, head of government relations for the Small Business Investors Association, an industry advocacy group who discusses current legislation that would give BDC investors a tax break and how legislation on esoteric subjects like business-development companies gets passed. Natalie Iannello, discusses a Howdy.com survey which showed that the average American now believes they need $105,000 a year to live comfortably, which is a problem when you consider that other research shows the average American salary at about $66,000. Plus, it's Chuck birthday, and he shares a birthday wish for his financial situation, and yours.
Mitchel Penn, managing director at Oppenheimer & Co. — interviewed at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum in New York on Wednesday — says that credit losses for business development companies during the first quarter of 2025 were more than double the level they have been at for the last few years. He says some of that increase could be attributed to the market's reaction to government policies, but that it also could be that interest rates have stayed higher for so long now that they are starting to create credit-quality issues. He said BDCs can still deliver returns in the range of 9% moving forward, though he warned that an increasing number of business-development companies may struggle to earn their dividends, making it important for investors to be avoid simply chasing a high yield. Also from the BDC Forum, Bob Marcotte, president at Gladstone Capital Corp., discussed how government policies are encouraging business investment and capital expenditures which should create outstanding conditions for private credit, and therefore BDCs, to shine. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, checks in with a short-duration Treasury fund that uses options to goose its yield as his ETF of the Week, and Chuck discusses the growing threat to investors and the economy from breakdowns and cuts impacting the way the country's economic statistics are tracked and maintained.
Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, says the market "got wrong-footed coming into January," expecting a pro-business administration but stumbling instead due to the tariffs, but he says that as the economy starts to get to the other side and have some clarity, he still sees the Standard & Poor's 500 hitting the same goals his team set for it at the beginning of the year at 6,600. While he would like to see the market make and hold new highs to prove that the rebound from April lows can hold, he says that there will not be a recession this year or next without some man-made event like the Federal Reserve making a mistake by moving rates too much or too soon. While Quinlan is confident that there won't be a recession, most Americans disagree; Emily Fanous discusses a survey done for Howdy.com which showed that more than half of Americans think a recession is in the offing — within the next year — and that many are starting to change financial habits to prepare for that downturn now. Plus, veteran international fund manager Bernie Horn of Polaris Global Value talks stocks in the Market Call.
Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors — the keeper of the group's sentiment and asset-allocation surveys — discusses how investors are becoming increasingly neutral in their sentiment but increasingly aggressive in their investment plans. Neutral sentiment — the expectation that the market will remain flat over the next six months — has been on the rise, as Americans feel better about the market without necessarily being optimistic; meanwhile, their asset allocations are taking on more stocks. Mostly, however, Rotblut notes that most investors should keep their emotions in check and let the headlines play out, mostly riding out the storm with a long-term investment plan in place. Veteran investment adviser Stephen Akin, founder of Akin Investments, mixes technical analysis with fundamental stock details in the Money Life Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about retirement-savings basics, which tax-advantaged accounts to use and how to prioritize your savings.
Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that the bond market "is pricing in a very benign outcome for everything that has been going on and all of the risks that are out there," and the stock market mostly seems to be agreeing with that assessment. While Carter's forecast calls for slow growth, he thinks the chances are that it stops short of a recession, and that any downturn is likely to be short-lived as the market and economy digest the headlines and move on. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts "fake dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone, building on the idea of "false dividend stocks" that David Trainer, the company's president, highlighted a week ago. Pamela Ladd discusses an American Institute of CPAs survey which found that women are markedly more concerned than men about the deterioration of their financial situation in the last 12 months, and Chuck goes off the news on how the Labor Department recently changed its guidance concerning cryptocurrencies in retirement plans, and whether that will result in more unsophisticated investors loading up their 401k plans with Bitcoin.
Technical analyst Willie Delwiche, the founder of Hi Mount Research, says that "New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do," and he says investors need to see a return to record-high levels for proof that the current rebound is more than just a bear-market rally. He expects the market to be held hostage by headlines and range-bound — bouncing between the market's February peak and the April post-tariff-announcement lows — until there is some clarity on tariffs, interest rates and more. He expects large-cap growth stocks to keep leading the way domestically, and says that the international rally has room to continue because money has been rotating away from U.S. assets toward more global positions. Michael Grant, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments — co-manager of the Calamos Long/Short Equity & Dynamic Income Trust — says that current market conditions have made it that bonds are no longer a natural working hedge for market downturns, with downside risk that can be worse than what stocks are facing. Eric Lutton, co-chief investment officer at Sound Income Strategies — manager of the Sound Enhanced Fixed Income ETF — talks business-development companies, real estate investment trusts and more in the Market Call.
Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says that investors might want to put a collar on their enthusiasm, whether that involves a hunger for interest rate cuts or double-digit stock market returns. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, he says that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to make rate cuts, notes that he thinks international stocks have profited from turmoil but are less promising for the future, and says that the domestic market — helped by a strong economy — should be able to hold marginal, single-digit gains for this year and have small gains moving forward for the next few years. Meanwhile, he says investors should lean into the money they can earn from bonds, while being cautious about long-duration paper. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into the strong international markets, picking an actively-managed Fidelity fund as his ETF of the Week. Plus Ted Rossman discusses a BankRate survey showing Americans' increasing disdain for the tipping culture and how they are fighting back against what they perceive as increased pressure to leave tips, and Chuck answers a listener's question about picking a spot bitcoin ETF.
Veteran market-timer Brad Lamensdorf, manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF and of a new market-neutral hedge fund, says that the market's outsized gain of the last few years has set it up for a long period of sideways and heavy volatility while high valuations settle into something more reasonable. He's not calling for a recession — and he thinks there will be plenty of opportunities for savvy stock-picking — but he says the market will be much less comfortable for investors than it has been over the last few years. Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners — which assesses market and economic strength to determine broad asset allocations — explains how the firm came into 2025 with all of its measures being bullish, only to see those indicators start to turn so that by mid-March its key measures were negative; that had only happened four times before, each pre-saging significant market downturns. After the stock market recouped the tariff tantrum losses, one measure has turned positive, and Rizzuto notes that times of mixed indicators are when the changes are most tenuous. As a result, Rizzuto says current conditions should make investors cautious and defensive as they watch current economic and market headlines play out. Plus Chuck goes off the news to discuss the "Credit Card Competition Act," which has been tucked into some other legislation winding through Washington, and which could dramatically impact the future availability of loyalty and cash-back programs.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that there is opportunity for investors to "eek out a mid-single-digit type of return this year," provided that they can stomach high levels of volatility along the way. Specifically, McKnight says that he expects domestic stock markets to be the leader in the second half of the year, most notably in comparison to international developed markets, which have been a bright spot thus far in 2025. McKnight expects the performance of foreign stocks to fade, while mid-cap domestic stocks pick up sharply. McKnight also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates two or three times late in the year, noting that "there's really not a need to initiate more cuts right now," which will make the move more effective as the economy slows while it digests trade policies and more. Kathy Kristof, founder and editor at SideHusl.com, discusses how people can get the most from side jobs, noting that they can be a gateway to second careers, semi-retirement life changes or a means to achieving a specific financial goal, but how the best way to achieve those ends involves some detailed advance planning and thought on how to make the most of your skills and assets. Plus, the Weird Financial News returns, and digs into some of the financial issues behind a few recent news stories where the money angle was largely ignored by the mainstream media.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that for all of the concerns that tariffs have created for the economy, the situation playing out in the courts now has put a cap on how much can be done that reduces the chance of recession. Jacobsen says that the bond market is signalling potential concerns now while the stock market is suggesting that "everything is fine," and he notes that both messages can be correct amid uncertainty around inflation, government debt levels and more. Jacobsen also discusses the sentiment numbers, which suggest that consumers are miserable, but he says that Americans aren't yet reflecting that attitude with their spending habits. Yetin a Survey Said interview to open the show, Chip Lupo analyzes the latest WalletHub Economic Index, which showed that consumer optimism is plummeting and that it is starting to impact those spending decisions. Plus David Trainer, president at New Constructs, introduces the concept of "fake dividend stocks" in the Danger Zone this week, noting that a popular real estate trust focused on data centers has a decent dividend but is so overpriced that investors will wind up losing more money holding the stock than they earn from the dividends that the stock pays out. He says this is part of a trend — which he plans to cover in the Danger Zone — of "false dividends, fake dividends and dividend traps."
Jim Thorne, economist and chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, says the target he was setting for the stock market entering 2025 holds, and that means 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 "is doable this year, and I think we will rally nicely into the mid-term elections." Thorne believes the economy can avoid a recession, which will slowly help to turn the soft data as consumers and investors regain confidence, which — coupled with interest rate cuts which he says are overdue — will keep the United States markets not only moving up but the best place to invest in the world. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, looks at two mainstream media articles that named "the best closed-end funds" and digs into the data to compare those picks to his own — made on previous appearances on The NAVigator — to see how well the one-size-fits-all advice actually suits investors. It's a lesson in evaluating funds, but also on sizing up the sources of investment recommendations. Plus, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site’s latest survey on home affordability and homeowner regrets, which not only showed that Americans are struggling in many cases to buy homes, but they often regret how much they paid and the costs of maintenance once they get one.
John Lekas, president and senior portfolio manager at Leader Capital Corp., says that focusing on the numbers rather than the headlines shows a market that has the potential to gain 5 to 10 percent before year's end, with solid gains in the bond market as well, particularly in collateralized mortgage obligations. Lekas says he's not worried about inflation remaining sticky because stocks often perform well during inflationary times; he thinks the dollar will get 10 percent weaker over the course of the year — and notes that the dollar is his primary worry — but he notes that the dollar's change is not convincing him to invest internationally. He's still sold on the domestic market, and says the currency volatility makes the international picture murkier and less attractive. Kelley Wright, editor at Investment Quality Trends, discusses value stocks for the long haul in the Market Call, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into the changing market conditions by picking an active thematic rotation fund for his ETF of the Week.
Laurence Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University and the founder of Maxifi.com — which helps investors bring economics into their financial planning decisions — says investors who have spent decades thinking the stock market rebounds from every dip and decline could be in for a different story with a coming recession, and he thinks they should be trying to lock in their standard of living rather than focusing on historic rates of return. To that end, he says he has cut his personal equity exposure from 60 percent of the portfolio to 20-25 percent. "I do see only downside risk from what's going on," Kotlikoff says. "Even if there is nothing changed on average, the uncertainty itself is enough to produce a recession and a big drop in the stock market." Ted Rossman discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey which showed that more than half of Americans say they will spend less on discretionary items like travel, dining out and live entertainment, but he also notes how plans to limit spending often fail to translate into action and reality. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to turn the portfolio of his younger self into something more age appropriate and mature.
John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that today's heightened volatility should have investors spreading their bets, "because the world is so unsettled right now that it's hard to have conviction to lean into one position, one asset class or one investment all on one side of the boat at one time." He says the market has ridden out a storm but isn't settled, and investors will want to extend their international investments to get good values, but will want to capitalize on premiums currently available in bonds, will want to diversify geopolitical risk with gold and will want to be selective on domestic stocks as they watch the tariff and economic situations play out. Plus journalist Sara Bongiorni, who wrote a book in 2007 called “A Year Without Made in China,” which chronicled her efforts to simply avoid goods made in China for 12 months, discusses how hard she thinks it will be for Americans to minimize the impact of tariff policies, noting that certain industries — from shoes to lamps to the materials needed to celebrate July 4 — are virtually impossible to buy from any place but China, and she notes that the efforts it takes to avoid Chinese goods also can be extreme, leaving consumers with no easy alternatives.
Jack Janasiewicz, senior vice president and portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, says the market is in the middle of "one big range trade, and we're probably a lot closer to being at the top of the range rather than the bottom," which means there is more likely room to move down from here rather than to post big gains. Janasiewicz says the the slowing economy needs more time to work through the hard data, which will take time, and will likely lead to a volatile market within the current range. Janasiewicz says the market must also deal with short-term concerns over the weakening dollar, but says he think those worries are overblown when it comes to their long-term impact; like most analysts right now, he likes gold as a dollar diversifier to help ride out the issues. Brian Griggs, head of portfolio strategy and solutions at Nuveen, says that investors have long had too much dependence on large-cap domestic stocks and an over-reliance on duration in fixed-income allocations, which is leading to painful portfolio moves caused by today's stressed stock and bond markets. He talks about making small-but-appropriate portfolio tweaks to lower portfolio volatility and diversify portfolios to improve their investment return and comfort level. Plus we revisit a recent question that Chuck answered from a listener who must decide which investments they will sell in order to raise some cash to pay for one-time additional expenses.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that investors appear divorced from fundamentals, buying dips, chasing rallies and generally hoping for a lot of things to go right as the market climbs "a huge wall of worry" and mostly ignores that earnings growth forecasts of 12 percent entering the year are now being predicted at about 7 percent. Sosnick expects interest rate cuts later this year, but notes that they will be made from a position of economic weakness, and he also thinks the stock market is much more likely to re-test its April lows — right after tariff policies were announced — than to set new record highs, noting that just the conditions that are clear and aren't muddled by uncertainty should make investors think "Buckle in for volatility." Just over a month after making an actively managed commodities fund the ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth head of research at VettaFi, turns his focus back to commodities, this time highlighting an index-based option from Aberdeen Investments. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about investing in private credit and why he has repeatedly questioned experts about the potential for trouble in that emerging investment arena, which those money managers routinely have downplayed in their answers.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, says that investors watching headlines about the economy, the weakening dollar and more need to realize that policy shifts and global changes play out over long stretches of time, so that investors should react in small, modest ways. For Zaccarelli, that has included adding gold to the portfolio as a dollar diversifier and reducing risk while waiting to see how the economy unfolds and creates chances to be opportunistic buyers in areas like small-cap stocks and more. Rachel Perez discusses a survey done by Secure Data Recovery which looks at Americans' obsession with tracking their data — from hours sleeping to weight to all things financial — which found that 70 percent of the Americans who track their spending (and nearly two-thirds of those who track savings) say that watching and analyzing the numbers makes them anxious. Plus retired economics teacher David Mayer discusses his new book, "Economics in Plain English," and why in challenging times there seems to be trouble coming up with standard definitions for common terms like "tariff."
Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners, says investors have survived all kinds of events that seem as bad or worse than anything they are facing now, which is a reason to "stay along for the ride," even if that means moving to the slow lane — where he is positioned now — and being moderately defensive. Mills says he looks at current events "like friction," in that the "don't prevent things from happen, but they make it harder for things to happen" by slowing growth, raising prices and cutting into sales, which will dampen market results while they play out. Mills notes that domestic market valuations remain high, international markets are priced more attractively and also benefit from the low expectations investors have of how foreign investments will turn out amid ongoing tariff questions.George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, discusses the potential short- and long-term outcomes resulting from last Friday's downgrade of the United States' credit rating by Moody's. While the downgrade implies that the U.S. is a bigger credit risk than it seemed — which could make some investors expect higher interest payments to buy government bonds — Bory notes that this move was largely expected and is more a warning of potential future problems than a concern for current fixed-income investors. Plus, Tim Koller, co-author, "Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies" discusses how current conditions — much like Covid times — are changing long-term business-valuation prospects for companies.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3Edge Asset Management. says the uncertainty about tariff policy — which has pushed uncertainty over interest-rate and monetary policies nearly out of sight — has made it particularly hard for investors to decide where to go with their money now. While the hard economic data is good, Folts notes that the concern is how quickly it may change once tariff chaos hits consumer prices; the result is that he's splitting his equity assets 50-50 between domestic and international stocks, and is looking at short-duration bonds and gold to hedge the stock exposure. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, discusses the latest National Association for Business Economics Business Conditions Survey, released today, which shows that economists' share Folts' concern about the coming months, with 75 percent of the survey respondents putting the probability of a recession in the next year at 25 percent. Just 15 percent of economists were that strong on recession chances in January. Plus David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts a digital payment technology company in the Danger Zone for the third time, and Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, discusses her new book, “Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love and Work.”
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says the stock market is pricing solid corporate earnings and generally strong economic growth momentum, but those gains haven't ended the uncertainty around tariff policies. While the market seems to think the impacts will be muted, St. Aubin says we are in a waiting period to see how consumers, markets and economies are truly impacted by tariffs, and the generally positive view leaves more potential downside risk that investors should guard against. Mark Gatto, co-chief executive officer at CION Investment Group, discusses how private markets have been reacting to the policy turmoil and how they have been steadier and less volatile than public markets amid the broad market swings caused by current events. Plus Adam Bierman, a founder of MedMen — one of the earliest public entrants into the marijuana business — discusses his book "Weed Empire: How I Battled Gangsters, Investment Banks, and the Department of Justice to Build the Cannabis Industry in America."
Andrew Foster, chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners — manager of the Seafarer Overseas Growth Fund — says emerging markets are poised to thrive in an environment where the dollar is weakening against not only foreign currencies but gold, Bitcoin and "a bag of Doritos." Foster says that the fundamentals are improving for emerging markets, which are showing the potential for a second consecutive year of 12 percent growth in earnings despite tariff and trade concerns. He says stronger stock profits combined with currencies getting stronger against the dollar is "a good setup" for investors looking to diversify a portfolio. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also talks international investing, going abroad — though to developed markets rather than emerging markets — with his pick for the ETF of the Week. Plus, Chuck talks about how investors might want to adjust portfolio fits — and follow the advice from recent guests — now that the market has bounced back and crossed into positive territory for the year, reversing the big drops that occurred when tariff policies were first announced.
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says he expects gold to trade between $3,100 and $3,500 for the remainder of the year, but is making the bullish case for new record price levels as high as $3,900 an ounce, noting that he believes the new bottom level for gold is $3,000 an ounce, up by $1,000 in the last year. Milling-Stanley says gold has been working well as a geo-political hedge, providing ballast to portfolios that have been whipsawed by current economic policies, but he acknowledges that gold has not done a great job in its traditional role as a counter-weight to inflation, because inflation levels have not been high enough for long enough for gold to deliver in that role. Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, says that Tuesday's consumer price index numbers didn't show the impact of tariff-related price increases, but those could impact the numbers as soon as next month; meanwhile, the current CPI print should encourage the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates and might encourage investors to make a small move up the risk spectrum, focusing on quality and low-volatility investment factors rather than simply looking to minimize volatility. Plus Kerry Sette discusses the latest consumer research out from Voya Financial, which showed that more than one in three working Americans say that the current economic uncertainty and the potential for higher prices caused by tariff policies is severely impacting their ability to save for retirement.
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at BNY Investments, says that Monday's temporary halt to the tariff battle between the United States and China significantly reduces the potential for a recession, but it doesn't create the clarity that investors and business leaders are seeking. He believes the U.S. will continue to deliver solid results long-term, but warns that the road to those long-term gains is likely to be bumpy, and even notes that "for now, cash looks pretty attractive." Larry Tentarelli, editor at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, says that the market's gains Monday continue a trend that has been building since the market bottomed after "Liberation Day." He says the recent moves have crossed trend lines and moved the Nasdaq out of bear-market territory and the recent gains have more room to run. Plus, Paula Fleming, chief spokesman for the Better Business Bureau of Eastern Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont, talks about avoiding summer scams around roofing, home construction and more.
Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group, says the stock market over-reacted to the downside over tariff announcements and that investor sentiment was so sour that it flashed big buying signals to him. Now that there has been some easing of tariff tensions with the United States and China announcing a deal on Monday, Leger says he thinks the market can push through the trouble, sustain a 2 percent growth rate and work through volatility to end the year with the Standard & Poor's 500 in the 6,500 range, about 15 percent up from where it started the day. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts FreshPet back in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock has a franchise that might attract potential buyers, but it has a business that can't see a clear path to profitability as it exists now. David Brady, president, Brady Investment Counsel talks stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says that using tariffs "is like throwing a grenade as an offensive weapon when you are in a small room. You are much more likely to damage yourself than anybody else," which is why he is expecting the Trump Administration to back away from its heavy demands rather than go into a trade war. Despite being "one Tweet away from a solution," Kelly worries that the economy will suffer damage — particularly if it's not cleared up soon — but he notes that he does believe a recession is in the offing, with the good news being that he thinks that slowdown will be shallow and short-lived, passing by the end of the year. Peter Chung, director of research at Presto Research, a firm that trades digital assets, checks in on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and discusses their strong rebound since taking a nosedive along with the stock market heading into "Liberation Day" and through the subsequent downturn; he discusses how digital assets are being impacted by tariff concerns. Plus Andrew Kohl, portfolio manager for Aberdeen Investments' Total Dynamic Dividend and Global Dynamic Dividend funds, says investors can find strong payouts and good valuations buying foreign dividend-paying stocks, noting that many companies can keep rolling regardless of trade policy outcomes in the coming months. He also names two of his favorite dividend plays for the current market.
Economist Daniel Altman — who publishes the Daniel Altman's High Yield Economics newsletter — says that the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell provided more certainty than the market was expecting on Wednesday by effectively confirming that fighting inflation, rather than unemployment, is Job One. That means interest rates will stay higher for longer, with cuts not occurring until late this year or into 2026. Altman worries about the potential for stagflation and says that the job market may be weaker than the numbers are suggesting, but he does believe the worst-case outcomes can be avoided with appropriate policy decisions. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, says that the soft economic data like consumer confidence suggests that the economy is headed into a big slowdown, but the hard data isn't validating the biggest worries yet. Ripley says fundamentals remain strong, and that there are some plusses — like falling energy prices — that have been overlooked amid the dire headlines. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a brand new fund that is focused on hedge-fund activity his "ETF of the Week," noting the fund's potential for diversifying the average portfolio and for running against market trends.
Economist Steven Durlauf, director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the Harris School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago, says that the federal budget deficit is the biggest source of the country's trade deficit, meaning politicians have failed "to seriously address the relationship between what the government wishes to do and how much it costs." If politicians can't cut budget deficits and, potentially, raise taxes, Durlauf says, tariffs won't fix the problem, and will cause new troubles. Durlauf sees the tariffs creating a one-time price hike of 2 to 3 percent, he expects unemployment to rise by about 1 percent, and he expects stagflation while the government sorts out tariffs and ultimately settles on lower levels than have been in current headlines. Howard Dvorkin, chairman at Debt.com, talks about how consumers who were already acting stretched are likely to respond to feeling the pinch of tariff-induced price hikes, and whether that will be the thing that gets consumers to stop spending. He has advice on what consumers should do to avoid getting caught in a debt spiral in this environment, and how the market is likely to respond to rate cuts when they happen later this year. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who is facing expenses that require him to sell some securities to raise cash, and he wants to know how to decide the pecking order on which assets get the axe and where in his asset allocation they come from.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, says that while the economy is starting to point towards likely outcomes — an economic slowdown that leads to stagflation but likely stops short of recession — the extremes are still possible. That means the outcomes run from a potential trade war to a no-landing scenario until at least 2026. Roach discusses the challenges faced by international economies and markets right now, as well as whether stagflation or recession is worse for consumers. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, discusses what he expects to hear from the Federal Reserve later this week, but also notes that investors who are scared of the current markets can find safe havens in banking products, once again creating CD ladders that can deliver above-inflation returns while also dealing with rate cuts likely to arrive later this year. Plus Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, discusses the end of student-loan relief that has been in place for the last five years, with more than 40 million Americans now facing consequences if they can't repay student loan debt. He talks about what borrowers can do to ease the burden and reduce its impact on their finances.
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., says she expects the housing market to remain sluggish for as mortgage rates remain above 6 percent; while she expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates during the second half of the year, she's not expecting conditions to change much. That said, she noted that First American's Housing Recession Indicator — based on the trends of eight economic variables — is not flashing red, largely because new home sales have remained strong enough to overcome the other headwinds that home builders are facing. David Trainer, founder and president, New Constructs, puts electric-vehicle maker Rivian back in the Danger Zone; the stock first appeared there as an IPO and is way down since, but Trainer questions whether there is any way to hit the brakes on what he sees as a slide that ends near zero. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers' Index, which is an economic buzzkill as it shows continued contraction as buyers are increasingly pessimistic about prospects for the summer and fall. Plus Chuck responds to two listeners concerned with the show's balance and — by revisiting one of last week's guests — provides a reminder that politics and portfolio strategies don't mix well.
Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says that for all of the tumult and headlines, he still believes the market shows signs that it will still reach 6600 on the Standard & Poor's 500, the level he was expecting at the start of the year. That's up by more than 15 percent from current levels. Johnson acknowledges that the voyage will remain more "noisy" than he expected, but he says conditions "are more normal than many people realize." As a result, he's almost fully invested, counting on making money by climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. Danielle Poli, portfolio manager at Oaktree Capital Management, says the credit market is delivering returns that are close to the historic levels of equities, but says the current set-up is reminiscent of times in the early 2000s when credit "smoked" equities. With high-yield bonds earning around 8 percent and private credit showing significant demand, Poli says that while credit can be "a great place to hide out," investors can expect even more from it now. Poli says that credit can be more than just "a great place to hide out;" in talking with corporate executives, Poli says she now expects a slower economic environment, with the potential for higher inflation from tariffs, creating the kind of environment where "you're going to want to be in credit over equities." Plus Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the group's latest survey of investor sentiment is showing numbers "that you'd expect to see if there's a bad bull market," with uncertainty being priced into the market and into investor expectations. He also discusses an AAII Journal article highlighting the changing ways that investors are using cash in their portfolios.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, returns to Money Life today as the firm introduces the RSM US Recession Monitor — a comprehensive scorecard relying on more than 20 indicators to track the health of the economy — which is showing a 55 percent chance of recession, a danger level that Brusuelas says will go higher if current tariff and trade policies continue as announced. While he is optimistic about potential rollbacks in those policies, Brusuelas says the current conditions would be considered recessionary regardless of the party in power in Washington, but are exacerbated more by policy than they have been during times of recession triggers like an oil price shock.Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, brings a Pimco actively managed multi-sector bond fund back as the ETF of the Week, noting that the fund is a strong diversifier and can goose yields now, at a time when investors are looking for safe havens but might want bond managers to manage into the rapidly changing market conditions. Plus, more from the archives with investment legend Jack Bogle — who founded Vanguard 50 years ago today and who appeared on the show a decade ago talking about the firm's 40th anniversary; today's excerpts, culled from three different appearances on the show, include comments from 2016 on the first Trump Administration that stand up particularly well against the test of time.
Money Life celebrates it's 13th anniversary by looking at the past, the present and the eternal, digging into the archives for excerpts from a 2018 conversation with Jack Bogle that remains completely relevant — and perhaps moreso — despite the passage of time. Bogle — the founder of The Vanguard Group — who popularized index investing and was routinely called "Saint Jack" in the investing world, talks about how he invested and built his personal portfolio, saying that he favored the simple and domestic over the complicated and worldwide, but also talks about the evolution of ETFs, changes to the way people perceive indexing and more. With the show now in its 13th year, Chuck also gives a little 'bar mitzvah speech,' discussing the lessons he says are most important and prevalent from 13 years, over 3,250 shows and more than 10,000 interviews. Plus Nancy Prial, co-chief executive office and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management talks small-cap investing in the Market Call.
Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says that he has lowered his forecast for economic growth to 0.5 percent, while raising his forecast for inflation to 3.5 percent; that combination means stagflation, and it's starting to happen now and could turn into recession if the growth slowdown is worse than expected. Rick notes that "No one wins trade wars" and notes that if the current situation plays out into one, that trade problems triggering huge downturns would seem to be a classic 100-year event. While he says the damage can be averted if economic policy changes are softened or mitigated, Rick says he worries that the impacts of current events could last as long or longer than the economic impacts of Covid. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, discusses the unprecedented action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 17, when United Healthcare dropped 22 percent and, by itself, caused a big drop in the benchmark. He analyzes what that means for the Dow as a benchmark, but also talks index construction — and how investors should consider benchmarks — in light of the rapid growth of the Mag 7 stocks relative to the rest of the market. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how to sell some gold coins they received as an inheritance.
Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that while gold took a big stumble last week, he doesn't believe the strong rally to start the year is over. Further, with gold trading near record highs but oil trading in the range of $70 a barrel, he believes investors will find greater opportunity in gold-mining stocks than in physical gold itself. Coupled with demand behind heightened heightened because gold is historically an asset for uncertain times, and Millman said that while he thinks there may be more volatility moving forward, gold will continue to trend higher. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs. puts PPE maker Lakeland Industries in the Danger Zone, noting that these times are much different from when the stock was flying high during the pandemic. Ryan Butler, senior editor at Covers.com, talks about the early impact that tariffs have had on the gaming industry and what he's watching for as trade policies play out, plus Chuck looks at the first 100 days of Trump Administration 2.0 and discusses how the numbers have played out on everything from inflation and consumer prices to the personal savings rate, home and auto sales, mortgage and car loans and more.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says investors looking at current market turmoil and the potential for stagflation and an economic recession should remember that "Doing nothing is something," making an active decision to continue with current allocations, which she says is appropriate for anyone who felt balanced when they entered 2025. Fernandez expects current tariff policies to drive inflation above the 4 percent level before it cools, creating a stagflationary environment, bringing some hard times that she thinks won't last long once the economy and the market have some long-term clarity and stability on policy changes. because the economy was so strong entering the year. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, discusses the trading opportunities in closed-end funds created by the market's volatility, but he also notes that in spite of the tumult, his prediction for fixed-income closed-end fund returns this year "is still double digits, it's just going to be different." Plus Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group brings his "modern value" investing approach to the Market Call.
Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, brings his quant-active approach to the Market Call, but notes that mixing the numbers — the quantitative approach — with the art of active management leads him to want a well-diversified portfolio filled with well-known names that stay true to his core investment believes, the kind of thing he would be happy to ride with until there is more certainty and confidence in the market. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, puts a different spin on that, noting that amid the current uncertainty investors may want to make a long-term allocation to ultra-safe funds, which is why he makes a floating rate Treasury fund his ETF of the Week. Plus Chuck talks about the wild day that gold had on Wednesday and what lessons investors can take from it, and Frederick Blue of Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management discusses "Guidance for Professional Athletes: Turning Years into Decades," a new white paper the firm produced that discusses how people can turn short-term windfalls into something more permanent and lasting.
Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that he believes the potential recession that the United States economy could be facing is likely to be "a run-of-the-mill, early '90s type of recession" that stays shallow and lasts a few quarters, but he acknowledges that the signs are murky and that the longer uncertainty around trade and other policies last, the deeper and longer a likely recession becomes. Ceci says that investors should remember that the market is up way more than it is down, which means investors need to avoid panic and keep their eyes on the long-term gains rather than making changes based on incomplete information now. In The Book Interview, author Shannah Game, discusses “Unraveling Your Relationship With Money: Fix Your Money Trauma So You Can Live an Abundant Life,” which explores how the actions and attitudes people pick up over their lives — but particularly when they're young — influence a lifetime of decisions and attitudes around money. Plus, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management — manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value fund — brings his deep-value approach to the Market Call.
Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that with so much investor optimism wiped away by the rough start to 2025, the opportunity for growth now looks better than it did at the start of the year. "Six months from now, I would say there's a good chance the market will be higher," Slimmon says in summing up a conversation that compares current conditions to Covid times, that discusses why looking for defensive names now is bad advice and much more. Ironically, his interview airs directly before Simon Lack of SL Advisors — publishers of the American Energy Independence Index — talks about defensive midstream energy plays in the Market Call. Plus, Jerry Avorn discusses his new book, "Rethinking Medications: Truth, Power, and the Drugs You Take," which is out today.
Mike Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that we're living through "a period of genuine uncertainty, and a period in which forecasts that would have been made even three or four months ago no longer seem to have any real validity." He says that the current set up for a trade/tariff war is setting the economy up for a repeat of real troubles, and made comparisons as varied as the Great Depression, the Covid downturn, the Great Financial Crisis and others, and while he is optimistic that those dire scenarios can still be avoided, he also says that investors can't rule them out. Rahul Sen Sharma, president and co-chief executive officer at Indxx discusses how global markets — and indexes representing various regions and industries around the world — are performing amid the current market uncertainty. Plus, Raymond Bridges of the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF brings his "aggressively cautious" approach — which melds macroeconomic big-picture views with technical analysis and volatility factors — to the Market Call.
Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that heightened volatility is likely here to stay as the market sorts out rapidly changing current conditions -- and says current market shocks are reminiscent in some ways of the Covid crisis or the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. He says that the current dichotomy between quantifiable potential outcomes from policies that have been announced and the non-quantifiable future and how conditions may change, making it a good time for low-volatility equity strategies. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, returns to the show with three closed-end funds that he thinks can help investors weather the market's storms, giving his "trifecta analysis" — covering data points on discounts, yields and net asset values — on why he thinks the funds are worth a close look now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks for some safety and certainty amid the market noise, picking a classic dividend-driven fund as his ETF of the Week, and Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn — the original Market Call guest — returns to the show to discuss how his news-driven process is dealing with the headlines now.
Rebecca Rockey, deputy chief economist and global head of forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield — an analyst on the outlook survey committee for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the group's recent "flash survey" of economists which found that since tariff policies were announced on "Liberation Day," more than one-third of economists now believe the next recession is likely to start this year. Another half of the respondents have also raised their chances for a significant economic downturn. Rockey says that media forecasts for economic growth show significant downgrades since the tariff announcements, and notes that it appears this sentiment shift is the swiftest she has seen in any two-week period of time, including in times like Covid and other crises. Bob Powell, editor at Retirement Daily, talks about how seniors and pre-retirees should be considering the headlines on tariff and other government policies when it comes to spending, saving, retirement planning, Social Security, Medicare and more. Plus, Chuck answers three questions from listeners, discussing sequence-of-return versus market risk, how and why tariffs impact bond markets and his general feelings about tariffs.
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says "We are in the midst of a stagflationary environment that's likely to last three to six months," with the question remaining whether a recession will follow. He does now think that recession is likely, though changes to trade and monetary policy could stave it off. Bory also discusses how and why the bond market and Treasury yields are having more impact on the government's tariff policy than the wide stock market swings that have been capturing the headlines. Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Charles Schwab, says that current levels of volatility make it so that he's not looking out long-term, focusing instead "on, maybe, where we are going to be next week," noting that the wide daily trading ranges of the market — where there are sometimes a month or quarter's worth of movement in a single day — render long-term views too muddy to be valuable. In the Market Call, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners, says his top-down macro view suggests investors need to "buckle up" for a lengthy trade and tariff war, but then he talks about the temes and the bottoms-up fundamentals that are pointing him to invest in certain industries now.
Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, seems to only be half joking when he says investors might want to be bullish right now just because they would be the last bull standing, but he also notes that long-term investors, in conditions like these, must bite their lip and keep buying equities. That said, he thinks some of those equities should be international, and he particularly likes Japan right now. In an extended Danger Zone segment, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, taslks about how the market's turmoil is putting an end to the momentum trades which made it harder for him and his analysts to find a catalyst that would trigger the troubles in a Danger Zone stock; he says that more Danger Zone picks are likely to realize their downside potential quickly now, and then singles out Tesla — which his firm has had in the Danger Zone for years as it kept growing to new heights — in line for a haircut of as much as 80 percent from already falling levels. In the Market Call, Bryan Lee, chief investment officer at Blue Zone Wealth Advisors, discusses "opportunistic value" and whether the current market conditions have created those opportunities yet.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that investors should allow the market to settle down and they regain solid footing with their investments, but should use current nervousness and anxiety as a guide on how to remake their portfolio to be more stable regardless of conditions. Frick says he felt that the market was getting scary at the beginning of the year, so he reduced his exposure to stocks and started to prepare against sequence-of-returns risk because he is nearing retirement, and he says investors need to be much more focused on their internal risk-tolerance measures than anything that the market is doing to get through current conditions and plot for a future that is different economically, and that may not come back to the norms of recent years until there is more clarity on policies. Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the stock market had gotten "extremely oversold" before the government's tariff announcements were made, which made for a perfect set-up for a big market decline. While the cause of the downturn is unusual, Kahn says that the technicals are not, and that investors should be looking for confirmation that the tide is turning; even then, however, he warned that investors should be cautious buyers, at least until tariff plans are more clear and certain. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — checks in on how closed-end funds have performed since the tariff announcement, particularly bond funds that have seen yields changing as part of the fixed-income market's response to the news; he discusses discount levels, strategies that closed-end fund investors might use now, and how the current situation compares in closed-end funds to the market decline around the Covid pandemic.
Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, says that despite the painful volatility and the rising potential for recession, investors should be looking for opportunities, particularly in the areas that have been most hurt by recent action as the market has been. She notes that global small and mid-cap stocks are in bear-market territory, pricing in a recession and the impacts of inflation and more. pricing in recession. "The times when everybody is running for the doors, that is when you want to go in," Horneman says. She's not racing into the market and urges patience, but she believes investors can be aggressive now and be happy long-term with the results. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a commodity fund for his ETF of the Week, looking for a portfolio diversifier that will not move in sync with the market. Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager for Zacks Investment Management, talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck looks at what was, for most investors, the largest single day's gain they have seen in their lifetimes and how to use the recent stress and relief as a means of gauging if your portfolio is properly positioned for your needs and mindset now.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says that unless an off-ramp to current government policies can be found, he expects a recession that is starting now and likely to last nine months. He has raised his likelihood of recession to 55 percent, but said you can see already a pullback in orders, which in turn will lead to a price shock, and then pullbacks in spending and ultimately labor that will complete the slowdown process. Brusuelas expects a 1 to 1.5 percent spike in inflation in the next two to three months, which would push inflation above 4 percent, yet he does not foresee the Federal Reserve acting quickly to mitigate the downturn. "They're going to be a bit late," Brusuelas says, in forecasting the first rate cuts no sooner than June. Also on the show, Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad’s Utility Investor and The REIT Sheet talks dividend investing and how it is being impacted by the market moving away from all-time highs and staring down bear-market conditions.
JoAnne Bianco, partner and portfolio manager at BondBloxx, says that investors should be re-assessing risk and deciding if the market's current moves are an over-reaction that could rebound or something more sticky, and she notes that some fixed-income assets have been the best performers this year. She notes that long-duration Treasuries and U.S. corporate bonds have been stellar and seem to have priced in a lot of the turmoil, and she expects those asset classes to be less volatile than the market generally. She also likes the big payouts — without heightened default rates — in high-yield bonds now. Andrew Guillette discusses the latest U.S. investor survey from Broadridge Financial Solutions, which showed that one of the best ways to get better performance is to add some individual stocks to a balanced portfolio of mutual funds, with the single names helping to boost gains and put a strategy over the top. Plus Kirk McDonald, portfolio manager at Argent Capital, makes his debut in the Market Call talking mid-cap stocks, and Chuck talks about the moves he thinks nervous investors can make now that give them more control without blowing up their portfolio based on short-term market moves.
Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, talks about actionable steps investors can take now — and that she has taken for her clients — to mitigate anxiety amid the uncertainty of the current US stock market. Specifically, Spath is diversifying into investments that have a negative or no correlation to the U.S. market, buying gold, long-duration Treasury bonds and stepping up exposure to Germany and Japan; despite the turmoil, she still expects the stock market to finish 2025 with a solid year and reasonable gains. Chuck discusses what he took away from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Conference, and also lays out some key points that he believes will help investors get through what should be a very rough week. Plus Jillian Berman, a reporter and editor at MarketWatch, discusses her new book, "Sunk Costs: Who's to Blame for the Nation's Broken Student Loan System and How to Fix It."
Duane McAllister, senior portfolio manager at Baird, says investors are right to be leaning into the fixed-income market as a safe haven amid current market turmoil, noting that the relationship between stocks and bonds has normalized, unlike 2022 when bonds moved in sync with stocks and investors lost money in both. With yields relatively high and holding steady, McAllister said bonds are proving their value as safe, stable holdings. Kerry Sette, head of consumer insights and research at Voya Financial, discusses the firm's latest consumer survey which showed that there is a growing fear that the economy and inflation will have a major impact on the ability to accumulate retirement savings. John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers audience questions on finding the best closed-end funds, spotting pending distribution cuts and more, and in any sector, and Peter Tuz, president of Chase investment Counsel, talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says the market's long-running bull market is "on thin ice right now," from a technical standpoint, having fallen below its 200-day moving average, leaving the market "at a really interesting juncture," and making him defensive, building more cash, loading up on utilities and safe sectors and waiting to see how it plays out. Samuelson says that if the market breaks down -- with a decline accelerated by reactions to government tariff policies -- it could drop another 15 percent or more, putting the market squarely into correction territory off of its February highs. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, is more interested in the recent rally in international stocks than he is in the possible impact of tariffs on the markets there, and picks a T. Rowe Price international fund as the ETF of the Week. Susan Fahy discusses the latest Credit Gauge from VantageScore, which shows that the resumption of student loan payments has negatively impacted credit scores and will drop them further, as other indicators suggest consumer finances are slowly declining. Plus Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, brings his "beat and replace" approach for stocks to the Market Call, and Chuck gives his initial take on what Wednesday's tariff news means for consumers.
Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Research Affiliates, says that despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and geo-politics, international markets remain attractive and with a better valuation than domestic markets. But those global markets may also get a boost from the Trump Administration's plans to weaken the dollar — a dollar that Masturzo says his firm believes is currently 25 percent overvalued — so he emphasized that investors should not "fight the Treasury," and should instead follow its actions to more international exposure in their portfolios. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers Index, which shows that forward-looking demand for beer is contracting, a sign that consumers may be looking to pull back on spending. Plus, Taylor Krystkowiak, vice president and investment strategist for the Themes ETFs discusses some popular investment themes — and the stocks that best represent them — in the Money Life Market Call.
Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says the market has been in an oversold rally and is currently correcting as it comes out of that. He sees deteriorating breadth but still thinks this could be what he called "a healthy correction." McMillan says if the Standard & Poor's 500 can't hold the 5400 level, he would expect it to drop to 5000, a move big enough to put the stock market into bear market territory, a decline of 20 percent from market peaks in February. Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services, returns to the show to discuss updates to "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success,” and discusses the trend of investors trading some potential returns for more certainty, using annuities and reverse mortgages to secure income. Plus Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products for the American Association of Individual Investors — who created AAII's growth investing strategy — talks growth investing amid declining growth in the Money Life Market Call.
Harvard University economist Jason Furman — the former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers — says that the tricky thing in forecasting now is high levels of uncertainty, particularly in terms of how much business and consumers pull back based on current conditions; if there's a recession, he says it will be spending cutbacks that trigger it. Furman notes that the average tariff rate is now back to levels from the 1940s, and while he says he'd be shocked if it triggers a Great Depression, it could trigger a recession where the loss of economic growth and higher inflation results in the effective loss of about $2,000 per family. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs puts CoreWeave — Wall Street's latest big IPO — into the Danger Zone right out of the box, and Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management returns to the show to discuss his new book, "How NOT to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth — And How to Avoid Them."
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts says that the stock market at current levels is unattractive, because "the upside potential is now way more limited than the downside risk," and he expects that risk to be realized in a decline that could drop the market by another 5 percent or more. De Kempenaer says this dip won't feel much like a buying opportunity, because the market will need several months or quarters to finish a rotation and find a new base to build on. He notes that investors have been gravitating toward bonds, another sign that they are concerned about the market's ability to keep generating gains. Jordan Lopez, manager of the Payden High Income fund, says high-yield bonds have been improving in quality, despite the higher interest rates of the last few years, and he expects the trend to continue, to the point where the market for junk bonds now looks more like what investment-grade bonds used to be. Plus, Eric Purington, portfolio manager for the Aberdeen Global Income Infrastructure fund, discusses the potential of middle-market infrastructure plays, and MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends discusses his latest piece, which suggests that the Trump Administration needs a weaker dollar to make its plans work, and that a recession may be a required part of that calculus behind tariffs and inflation-fighting strategies.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, discusses how the site's latest survey shows that Americans are tapping into emergency savings increasingly to pay ordinary expenses. He talks about the dangerous spiral that a growing number of consumers are on, as they begin to exhaust emergency funds and have to rely increasingly on credit cards, currently carrying record-high interest rates. Rob Nestor, president of Turing Technologies, discusses the evolution of "high-conviction investing," and how focusing on the investment ideas that money managers most believe in can deliver results that beat indexes. In the Market Call, Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, makes his debut on the show, talking stocks.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at QI Research, says that she remains concerned about the economy in the short run because Congress isn't being "brisk and efficient" in delivering on the promise of de-regulation and lower taxes. Since those potential policy benefits haven't shown up — but the uncertainty of tariff policies has — she is expecting a bumpy economic road ahead. She does say that inflation may be having less impact than consumers say it is having, but she notes that consumer fears are real and are contributing to her feelings that the economy will struggle to regain momentum. Speaking of tariffs, Chuck answers a listener's question on how they are supposed to work and why he has been saying the dollar must be weaker for them to achieve President Trump's stated goal. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey which showed that Americans with checking accounts have maintained the same account for an average of 19 years, which may mean they are missing out on opportunities to get more from their most basic bank accounts.
Scott Brown of Brown Technical Insights says that the market traditionally is weak during the first quarter of a new presidential cycle, but he notes that the third week of March is also when that tends to change and the market reaches the bottom of that cycle. He says we're still in a secular bull market, with April and May historically providing some runway. As a result, Brown expects a bounce and says "It's not the time to be turning negative now," though he notes that if the seasonal rally fails to materialize, then conditions could be weaker than expected. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says that interest-rate cuts may, again, not have their traditional impact on stock and bond markets, and veteran financial journalist Allan Sloan "has fun with numbers," talking about the market's recent decline in numbers — rather than points on a stock index — and noting that it amounted to roughly $6.5 trillion until Monday's market rebound.
Dhruv Nagrath, director of fixed-income strategy at BlackRock, says that it's "easy to make a healthy return in your fixed income without taking too much risk," so while there are opportunities out the risk scale all the way out to high-yield and junk bonds, he notes that investors can stay safe and come away happy with their gains. Nagrath discusses what he expects to happen to bond yields when the Federal reserve starts cutting rates, how bonds are likely to perform relative to stocks in that environment, and where he is finding the right mix of risk and reward. Veteran financial journalist Herb Greenberg discusses "Stock Promotions Gone Wild," a recent piece he wrote after seeing company presidents hyping their shares in ways that, historically, executives have avoided, and why such promotions may be a red flag. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Wayfair back in "The Danger Zone," noting that the stock -- which he previously labeled a "zombie stock" -- remains in among the walking dead, likely on the way to losing nearly all of its value.
The show wraps up interviews taped at FutureProof Citywide in Miami today, with Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners noting that the Trump Administration is not disturbed with the recent price action on the stock market, because they know that the economy must cool off to get lower interest rates and energy prices. Moreover, he notes that a prolonged tariff battle will impact earnings growth, which will be the key determinant of what the market can achieve this year. Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen, expects the Federal Reserve to make two interest-rate cuts this year and talks about the asset classes that will benefit the most from them. Barry Martin — the manager of Shelton Equity Income — discusses where investors can find strong income now, using options as an overlay to goose returns. The show also features interviews with Laura Lutton, global head of manager research at Morningstar, and Brad Smithy, head of wealth management at Elevation Point.
Caleb Silver, editor-in-chief at Investopedia, says that uncertainty is kryptonite to investors and he worries that the longer current worries about tariffs, inflation, recession and more drag out, the more people could stop believing in long-term investing and stop their "relentless bid" where they put money into retirement plans with every paycheck. The market will keep going — perhaps slower, and possibly with a bear market and a possible recession — so long as the money keeps flowing, and he sees that stemming the tide of any declines. That is one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach this week; Chuck also chats about the markets with Don Calcagni, chief investment officer at Mercer Advisors, and Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. Plus, after Todd Rosenbluth, the head of researchat VettaFi makes a Vanguard quality-based fund his ETF of the Week, Chuck finds longtime friend and former Money Life regular Tom Lydon at the conference and they catch up on other developments in the ETF world.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says she is minimizing geopolitical inputs right now because it's impossible to make investment decisions around uncertainty. She says it's particularly important right now to focus on fundamentals and what's real — "We're investing in companies not countries" — and she is not buying the long-term hype on Europe because she says the recent rally doesn't have a strong foundation to stand on. That's one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach for today's show. Chuck also talks emerging markets and global income investing with Dan Shaykevich, head of Multi Sector Strategy, co-head of Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt with Vanguard, discusses the evolution of new financial products with Alec Davis, head of enterprise reporting at Pitchbook, and covers the stock market and being a patient investor in impatient times with Eddy Elfenbein, editor of the Crossing Wall Street blog and portfolio strategist for the AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF.
Money Life goes to the beach for the rest of this week, with Chuck conducting interviews at FutureProof Citywide, a festival for financial advisers held on Miami Beach. His first conversation at the event was with veteran CNBC personality Ron Insana, now the head of wealth at QuantumStreet AI, who says investors are right to be concerned about current levels of valuation and also geo-political policy uncertainty, but who doesn't see market issues extending to a level of a crash or crisis. The show also features Stephen Tuckwood, chief investment officer at Modern Wealth Management, leading financial adviser Michael Kitces, the head of planning strategy at Focus Wealth Partners, and Jeff Garden, chief investment officer at Lido Advisors, who makes a notable case against investing internationally — particularly in Europe — as a way to diversify a portfolio now.
Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that the current market decline is not a real surprise, but the whipsaw of emotions — moving from a can't-miss certainty that things were going up to hand-wringing today — is taking investors by storm, making them want to take actions even when the best strategy is to ride this out. "Success grows in silence, and the market is really attuned to noise," Treussard says. "Your job is to sit there with peace in your heart and focus on the silence." Kate Byrne, head of Vanguard Cash Plus discusses a recent Vanguard Consumer Savings Survey which showed that six in 10 Americans did not completely understand how interest rates can impact the money they save, which is why nearly half of them who are currently saving are settling for accounts earning less than 3 percent interest. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Trupanion back in the Danger Zone, noting that the pet-insurance company is barking louder as a dog despite recent pullbacks after an earnings miss.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says that stock market swings have had increasing impact on economic growth and the rate of inflation in recent years — "Price is a fundamental," he says — and that means the current downturn in the stock market could deliver a recession. At the same time, if the market moves from current correction-levels to bear-market levels, he expects inflation to then ease up and to help drive a potential recovery. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest investor sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which just hit its third straight week with bearish sentiment above 57 percent and bullish sentiment below 20 percent, a three-week stretch in both numbers that has never been seen since the survey started in 1987. While sentiment levels didn't hit these levels during events like the Dot-com Crash and the Great Financial Crisis, Rotblut noted that when sentiment reaches bearish extremes, the market typically has rebounded in six months, which bodes well for a recovery before year's end. In the NAVigator segment, Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, discusses the Invesco Closed-End Fund Income Composite ETF — which she considers the "Standard & Poor's 500 for closed-end funds" — as it celebrates its 15th anniversary and crosses $800 million in assets.
Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist at the Investment Company Institute, says that consumers currently expect that they will wind up paying about half of the costs added to goods by tariffs — meaning they will pay 10 percent more when an item is facing a 20 percent tariff — and she says that a cutback in consumer spending would dramatically change the economic picture, since it makes up about two-thirds of GDP. Along with declining consumer sentiment, Antoniewicz says that investors are reacting to current market performance and heading toward money-market and bond funds, waiting before they are willing to buy into the dips. Speaking of concerned and conservative investors, Todd Rosenbluth — head of research at VettaFi — picks an ultra-short and ultra-safe bond fund as his "ETF of the Week," and Chuck recounts three conversations this week with friends who are dealing with the market differently as they struggle to find some peace of mind amid current concerns. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that Americans can agree on something, namely that tipping is wildly out of control.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says she is still holding to the optimistic scenarios she had entering 2025, but she acknowledges that the potential for a recession grows by the day, given tariffs, a potential resurgence in inflation, fiscal pressures resulting in cuts to government spending and more. Still, Hooper's base case remains positive and she warns that investors can't afford to get spooked out of the market by short-term temporary declines. Jordan Grumet of the "Earn and Invest" podcast, discusses his new book, "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness and Leave a Lasting Legacy," plus Aaron Schumm of Vestwell talks about how consumers and workers can improve their savings — and American could make a dent into its savings crisis — by using new platforms that allow money to be set aside not just into retirement plans but for college savings, emergency funds, health care and more.
Brian Nick, head of portfolio strategy at NewEdge Wealth, says nervous investors should not be rooting for interest rate cuts, because they would be cheering for the economy to get worse, and the stock market would likely suffer as that happens. On the current suffering, Nick is not cowed by the last few days, noting that the "abrupt switch" in markt mentality is not the end of the bull market and economic growth cycles. He says the chances of recession are up, but that investors should diversify their way through the bumpy road ahead. Gregory Harmon, founder and president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says the market remains in "a really positive range," and the current consolidation isn't an issue until or unless the market starts making lower lows, signalling a potentially more significant and lasting change of direction. Cody Barbo, chief executive officer at TrustandWill.com discusses the site's 2025 Estate Planning Report, which showed that 20 percent of Americans have "completely abandoned traditional American Dream ideals."
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says the economy remains on a solid growth path, generating new job creation and steady unemployment that should prop the economy up against trouble. That said, she acknowledges that consumers are scared and may be starting to hesitate, which could quickly change the circumstances. Garretty notes that the stock market is pricing in what it expects to see from the economy in roughly nine months, and concerns over tariffs and geopolitical issues are leading people to want to make knee-jerk reactions before the market has a chance to really digest and sort out what lies ahead. Those reactionary impulses are also showing up in consumers, as witnessed by John Egan, who discusses a new study from Creditcards.com, which shows that nearly 20 percent of Americans are "doom spending" in order to get ahead of tariff-driven price increases. Chuck takes a listener's question about whether current conditions really do represent a buying opportunity, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts a mid-cap fund that gets a four-star rating from morningstar in The Danger Zone.
Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research says that he expects the stock market to back off of its current "pretty elevated" levels as it prices in a discount for uncertainty. "Whether or not you think in the long run that changes by the Administration are good or bad, while we go through them means that probably valuations need to be lower," Clissold says, noting that the discount will be accompanied by choppier market action, heightened volatility and more pullbacks and corrections. Further, Clissold notes that the situation could last until the economy digests a workforce shift as public workers move into jobs in the private sector and consumers curb spending during the adjustment period. D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says the current cycle may be changing, and he is watching whether the Standard & Poor's 500 can stay above its 200-day moving average, which it has been close to breaking the last few days. Barton says the pullback could reach the point of being a correction -- a decline of 10 percent or more -- if the trend line is broken, but he thinks the market needs to take a breather and re-gather itself before it can resume making real progress. Kimberly Flynn, president of XA Investments, says healthy borrowers and minimal defaults make the loan space attractive, with concerns over tariffs and Federal Reserve policies leading to more volatility but also new opportunities.
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that the cheap global stock markets are up 15 percent already this year, where the United States has been flat — "if you heard about geo-politics, you'd assume the opposite" — and he says that investors should be moving away from domestic issues to buy more global companies. Faber promises — and delivers — "a warning, an idea, a curiosity and something you've never heard of before" in today's Big Interview, and also gives his take on how to approach current events, asset allocation, cryptocurrencies and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also goes global on this show, looking to China internet stocks — one of those booming global markets — vettafi.com with his ETF of the Week. Plus Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, talks stock investing in the Market Call.
Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, says the stock market entered the year in "goldilocks mode," at all-time highs and with positive conditions, but the late-cycle economy is facing policy drag and "a lot of those risks have teeth," which is bringing recession back into the conversation. Hetts adds that with a market near record levels, it makes the current rally feel fragile, as if it's easier to move down than keep climbing, and he says there may be a correction as the market re-assesses its current standing, which could create new buying opportunities. Allison Hadley discusses a Howdy.com survey showing that many Americans would leave their job if it weren’t for the need for their current health insurance coverage. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about fairness in setting up gift and legacy accounts for grandchildren, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Eric Stein, head of investments and chief investment officer for fixed income at Voya Investment Management, says that the "sequencing of policies" is impacting the market now, noting that if the Trump Administration had done supply-side reforms and de-regulation first, it would boost the market, but instead the first moves have been tariffs, which has made the market outlook tougher. Still, he's expecting a modestly positive year, buoyed in part by the market's "self-correcting mechanism" that will react to tariff policy and impact how and how long those policies stay in place. Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research and the Intermarket Review says that the primary trend he's seeing in the market remains bullish, and the signs that we are nearing a market top are balanced by indicators showing there's more room to run. David Callaway, founder of Callaway Climate Insights, discusses how energy stocks could be set up for a fall; they have boomed as an AI-adjacent play because artificial intelligence requires high levels of power, but got hammered when the market was disappointed in the results at companies like Nvidia. Plus Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stock investing in the Market Call.
Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, says the economic numbers are strong, but the high level of uncertainty has it nearing a tipping point and making recession more likely. He sees the potential for consumer issues and a recession risking, and says there is a real -- but modest -- chance of stagflation putting the Federal Reserve in a real policy bind. Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, talks about what other economists are thinking, as she highlights the March Economic Policy Survey, released today by the National Association for Business Economics. David Trainer of New Constructs revisits Carvana, a stock which has defied gravity for over a year; he says it can't shake its status as a zombie stock headed for a massive decline. John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds, discusses his aggressive growth strategy.
Finance professor Meir Statman, author of "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance," says the headlines and geopolitical risks that have investors and consumers scrambling for a plan of action are not that different from past times, and that taking a deep breath and calming down will be a lot better than altering financial plans or stocking up and filling "that refrigerator you keep in the garage." Statman acknowledges that inflation is scary — particularly because it removes a measure of certainty from pricing — but says that acting scared has never served investors and consumers well. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, is back and answering more listener questions, this time on business-development companies, highlighting how they are different from closed-end funds but should be included with closed-end funds for portfolio-construction purposes. In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners talks about how he finds "underappreciated quality companies."
Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner stops by to answer the questions that experts are getting at the grocery store, the doctor's office or anywhere someone can inquire about whether current events — and fears over the potential future of tariffs, Social Security, Medicare and more — need to be addressed by financial moves now. Waggoner notes that people who crave some certainty and comfort can make moves — like considering annuities to bolster retirement income — but he suggested keeping changes to a minimum and avoiding knee-jerk reactions. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at bitcoin mining — and compares the investment allocation possibilities of the crypto world versus gold and gold miners — with his pick for "ETF of the Week." Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares talks about disruptive stocks — his firm runs the Nasdaq Select Disruptors ETF — and business-development companies in the Market Call.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that he entered the year cautious given political uncertainty and the impact of tariffs and other new policies, and that the market has moved from high levels of optimism more towards his level of concern. He's taking a wait-and-see approach to international investing now, and he's expecting higher volatility with less progress while the market sorts it out. Where the market still expects double-digit earnings growth — a key driver if returns are to achieve that level — Thomas sees more muted growth and a possible correction as forecasts are missed, leading to a year in which the market's best outcome would be high single-digit returns. Allison Hadley discusses a BadCredit.Org survey which showed that Americans say that inflation has made the cost of friendship significantly higher; more than one third of Americans say they are isolating due to cost of living. In the Market Call, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, talks about ETFs and where active and passive strategies offer potential advantages.
Veteran technical analyst Adam Grimes of MarketLife says that the market "just doesn't look right or feel right" to keep rolling along. It's not the kind of market that can support a big move upward, and is more likely to spend the year range-bound, in a protracted "chop and flop." That doesn't mean Grimes is down on the market, because he says this could be "a healthy psychological reset;" as that reset happens, Grimes said he would cut back on active and aggressive moves and stay patient looking for declines that will represent buying opportunities. Susan Fahy, chief digital officer at VantageScore, discusses the firm's CreditGauge measure, which shows credit card balances and consumer delinquencies on the rise, although at modest levels; overall indebtedness declined, driven primarily by consumers paying down existing mortgage debt and not buying new homes. Plus,small-and mid-cap portfolio manager Lance Cannon of Hood River Capital Management returns to the Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about building the conservative side of an asset allocation while worrying about sequence-of-return risk.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that the stock market has priced in so much good news that it makes him want to be more cautious, looking into headline risks for potential value opportunities. Stone notes that the stock market has had previous periods with three strongly positive, consecutive years — and it could complete that process again this year — but it makes him nervous that the market could adjust and re-set. That's not pushing him out of stocks, but has muted his expectations. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the organization's investor-sentiment survey, which shows that nervousness is on the rise, but so is bullish sentiment. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs looks at large-cap value funds and finds an attractive pick this week — rather than looking for the standard Danger Zone trouble spot — noting that even in a category that is doing well, top potential performers stand out. Plus, author Ross White discusses his recent book, "The Tree That Bends: How a Flexible Mind Can Help You Thrive."
Legendary value manager Bill Nygren, chief investment officer at Harris Oakmark and co-manager of the Oakmark Fund, says "it's a pretty good time for investors, especially those who want to diversify away from the S&P 500 megacap technology risk," but he notes that investors who stick with the biggest stocks will find performance increasingly volatile and homogenous because the growth of the Magnificent Seven stocks has changed the way "large cap" gets defined, cutting the number of stocks that qualify in half over just a few years. "If you're a large-cap growth manager, you're either buying less growth, more mid-cap or you are accepting the fact that your portfolio isn't going to have much active share." Also on the show, Richard Stone, chief executive officer for The Association of Investment Companies discusses the similarities and differences in the closed-end fund industry between the U.S. and England, noting that activist investors have struggled to gain traction and acceptance in British boardroom battles. Plus Chuck discusses a recent conversation with his wife about financial priorities, and how they had very different outlooks on what they would spend money on in living a life where longevity is not guaranteed.
Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, said on Money Life last May that the market was having "Maalox moments," but the worries and concerns now make it a "Whac-a-Mole market." Despite that, he says the current conditions represent a return to normalcy, a new standard in which valuations may be permanently higher and stock prices keep rising so long as there is growth. As a result, his investment outlook is heavily centered on domestic stocks, which he thinks can deliver double-digit gains in 2025 for the third consecutive year. For his "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, delves into the private credit market, something a growing number of investment analysts have been pushing but which few funds actually tackle. In the Market Call, Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy & Income Advisor, talks about income plays worth making now.
Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset for PineBridge Investments, says the market is like Star Trek, "going into a world where no one's been before," seeing new technologies like artificial intelligence become dominant, observing changes in geo-political lines and watching profits continue a trend of being high but going higher as the United States keeps getting stronger relative to the rest of the world. As a result, so long as growth continues, "the markets will come through ... so keep the seatbelt on and enjoy the ride." Author Tim Falconer discusses his new book, “Windfall: Viola MacMillan and Her Notorious Mining Scandal," reviving a tale of stock fraud from the 1960s that feels like a precursor to illegal actions seen in the markets today. Plus Jennifer White discusses J.D. Power research showing what banking and savings consumers are doing trying to get a handle on — and goose the financial performance of — accounts that seem stuck in neutral.
Jeff Rosenkranz fixed income portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management — manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund — says that what investors are facing more than sticky inflation and interest rates is sticky uncertainty. That doubt has increased volatility, especially in individual companies, industries and sectors as proposed tariffs play out, but that turbulence represents new opportunities for credit buyers, especially in intermediate term corporate and high-yield bonds. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Spotify back in the Danger Zone, noting that a recent pop in the company's stock price has inflated to the point where valuations reflect revenues so unrealistic that a 50 percent haircut in the stock would be considered mild. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com study which shows that more than 80 percent of Americans spend money on at least one of six common financial vices (alcohol, lottery tickets, casino games, tobacco/cigarettes/e-cigarettes, sports betting, and marijuana/recreational cannabis), and Scott Davies, chief investment officer at CDAM, talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Jim Welsh, author of “Macro Tides” and the “Weekly Technical Review,” says the technical signals that have been evident since November — with the market making new highs while fewer stocks are advancing — are "a warning sign should a reason to sell appear, and I think we're going to get one of those." Welsh thinks that tariffs and the new administration's determination to use them will likely be that trigger; while he expects the market to make one more high in the short-term, he says that if tariffs have a harmful impact, the market is setting up a 10 to 15 percent pullback in the market later this year. Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments thinks the economy is strong enough to overcome all but an exogenous shock — something at the more severe end of Welsh's spectrum — without a recession, although her outlook remains for "a very bumpy market environment." Jim Baker, president of the Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, says that the energy infrastructure space — which was a huge winner in 2024, with midstream companies up an average of 50 percent — is poised for double-digit gains over the next three to five years, fueled by the power demands of artificial intelligence, data centers and other applications. Plus,Tom Plumb, manager of the Plumb Balanced and Plumb Equity funds, brings his growth-oriented approach to the Market Call.
Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says that while there are reasons to be nervous, the market remains near record-high levels and is not showing signs that it is over-inflated and ready to burst. Tilson notes that fundamentals are strong and the U.S. has the best-performing economy in the world, so investors have correctly priced stocks at rich levels; while that makes it harder for Tilson — a value investor — to find great companies that the market has knocked down or mispriced, it doesn't make the market scary or mean that a big downturn is building. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, pursues a big yield in an unusual place — the high-flyers of the NASDAQ — with his ETF of the Week, and Cullen Roche, chief investment officer for the Discipline Funds, talks about exchange-traded funds for the long haul in the Market Call.
Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist for the Innovator ETFs, says that the stock market can keep running for as long as investor sentiment remains strong, but he notes that those emotions have been at such high level that there's not much room for a setback — which could be caused by tariffs, inflation and more — without cratering the market. As a result, he thinks investors need to take advantage of current conditions — even if they are nervous — but diligent about changes in the market. Author Ryan Matt Reynolds discusses his current book, "Undoing Urgency: Reclaim Your Time for the Things that Matter Most," and Jerry Sneed, senior wealth advisor at Procyon Partners, makes his debut in the Market Call talking about stock-picking and building a portfolio amid a strong market that's facing storm clouds.
Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says current valuations "really only fall in line with 1929 and 1999, so we see substantial downside risk" to the Standard & Poor's 500, but investors can avoid "historic ber market losses" in the mega-cap stocks that have lead the market for the last two years by rotating toward the value and lagging plays. He recommends equal-weight index plays rather than traditional cap-weighted plays, and being patient with the stocks that were unloved, which will have to overcome the shifting momentum of mega caps as the market cycle changes. His sentiments about a broadening market were seconded by Patrick O’Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, who says that what's coming will be more of a stock-picker's market where investors are paid for being thoughtful and discerning amid a market that's likely to be stuck in a tight range as leadership changes and amid geopolitical uncertainty. Also on the show, Chuck Bell of Consumer Reports discusses how the potential end of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will impact consumers, and Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub study showing that Americans collectively will spend a record $14.2 billion on Valentine’s Day gifts, with the average lovebird shelling out $186 this year.
Economist Howard Yaruss, a professor at New York University and the author of "Understandable Economics," talks about how tariffs work and why increasing the levies now could lead to stagflation — higher prices with a worse economy — depending on how consumers and the Federal Reserve react. Yaruss isn't predicting recession yet, but he does see the economy becoming more sluggish as businesses deal with uncertainty around tariffs. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has a surprising pick — a Magnificent Seven stock — for The Danger Zone, and Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund talks absolute-value investing in The Market Call. Plus, Chuck has a heartfelt message near the end of the show that long-time listeners -- and newcomers too -- deserve to hear.
Lauren Saidel-Baker, economist at ITR Economics, says the "green shoots have been forming" among leading economic indicators, showing that growth is ahead for the economy, along with a normalization as the last ripples of the Covid-19 economy are finally playing out. She expects the Federal Reserve to struggle or fail in its efforts to hit a 2 percent inflation target and thinks consumers should get used to higher prices, but even if tariffs add to upward pressure she thinks the economy can avoid a recession. Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors — manager of the Private Shares Fund — talks about late-stage venture opportunities in artificial intelligence and the hunt for the next unicorn in the overheated AI space. Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses his sure bet for the Super Bowl, namely that companies which recently went public that advertise on the broadcast are headed for trouble.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, discusses how uncertainties over tariffs, trade wars and geo-politics have help boost gold prices by more than 40 percent in the last year — and mining-company stocks by even more — and yet the current level of concern is going to help precious metals go even higher from here. He explains why the higher prices are a particular boon for the miners, making them the market sector he thinks has the most potential moving forward. Dan Brown, director of consumer product management at KeyBank talks about the firm's recent research which showed that Americans have levels of financial stress which may not be fully warranted, contradicting other studies — including ones discussed recently on the show — by showing that 45 percent of respondents are confident they could manage a $2,000 unexpected expense. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the newest bond offering from the oldest mutual fund company — one of its first ventures into running exchange-traded funds — as his ETF of the Week. Plus, in the Market Call, Wasif Latif, president/chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners — manager of the new Sarmaya Thematic ETF — talks about the concepts and ideas that he thinks will move the market next.
Charles Piller, author of “Doctored: Fraud, Arrogance and Tragedy in the Quest to Cure Alzheimers,” discusses how research into one of the world's most devastating health scourges has been held back by the egos and profit motives of some of the leading researchers, and what they have done to keep their research in the spotlight even as more science shows that it might be leading to the wrong conclusions on how to combat the problem. Lindsay Theodore of T. Rowe Price talks about new research — and a planning guide created from it, that looks at life and long-term care planning for the second half of retirement, noting that for many people the golden years are two different stages that require separate financial focus to plan for correctly. Plus Dan Kim, director of research at Saturna Capital — manager of the Sextant International fund — brings his long-term focus to finding disruptive stocks to the Market Call.
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says the stock market is trading near its fair value, but that it has enough earnings momentum to push out an average year of gains — something in the range of 9 to 11 percent — and that it could do better if profits come in above expectation levels. He does anticipate more volatility, but figures the underlying value of stocks — especially those with quality management — should overcome headline risks. Mish Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, says that market hysteria about headlines — and particularly some of those being created over the weekends while the stock market is closed — is creating opportunities, especially for volatility traders. Plus, in the Market Call, Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, talks about being picky in selecting stocks that can thrive in current conditions.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says "the soft landing narrative right now is alive and well," but she is watching initial jobless claims and and high-yield bond spreads, both of which have been at levels showing continued economic strength and which aren't signalling any change in that trend. She does say that investors should temper expectations because the market sits at 22 times forward earnings, with the historic peak being 24 times; while that gives some room for more upside, it suggests that solid earnings and great balance sheets -- trading at reasonable prices -- will be essential for delivering positive results. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts Quantum Computing in "The Danger Zone," warning that a recent decline that cut the stock price in half didn't go nearly far enough given a lack of profits and a questionable business model. Craig Giventer, managing director of portfolio strategies for Focus Partners Wealth, talks about the importance of finding "good businesses at fair prices" -- rather than bad businesses at bargain levels -- in the Market Call.
The show — like the stock market and economy — moves in a lot of directions today, with Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, saying that there's a "high degree of clarity around the economy," — a level of sustainability and durability that he thinks will last at least through 2026 — balanced out by a host of policy and regime changes ahead that could impact monetary and fiscal policies, regulation, trades and tariffs and more. He thinks the uncertainty being played over a strong economic backdrop should ensure that the market avoids significant trouble. Jeffrey Bierman, founder of TheQuantGuy.com and chief market technician at TheoTrade, says the stock market is setting up for a "garden-variety, nothing-to-panic, maybe 10 percent corrective move in the market," but that once that is done stocks will consolidate and the market will start to climb higher again. Neither guest thinks big gains are likely in 2025, but both think that high single-digit gains are likely. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors answers audience questions on closed-end fund investing in The NAVigator segment and Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that some 40 percent of Americans think their bank is taking advantage of them.
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist for the Hartford Funds, is expecting a positive year for 2025, with a broadening market and solid earnings growth driving it forward, but she expects the drive to a third consecutive year of double-digit gains to be more volatile. That volatility represents an opportunity, she said, because fantastic companies become cheap when the markets get frothy but their underlying fundamentals don't change. Jacobson is leaning towards domestic stocks, but she noted that investors do not want to forsake international stocks, because they represent a good value at a point where domestic markets are pricey. Economist Lester Jones discusses the latest Business Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that economists think sales and profits are holding steady in current conditions, despite rising costs and increasing uncertainty over economic policy. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a Bitcoin fund that uses options to eliminate downside risk as his ETF of the Week, and Geoff Garbacz, partner at Quantitative Partners, mixes technical analysis with a macro outlook in examining some popular stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that "the U.S. economy seems to be in pretty good shape," noting that there's a healthy amount of momentum — built on the strength of the labor market — that is creating solid underpinnings to will keep the economy and the stock market in a good place at least through 2025. Luschini thinks that earnings expectations — which he sees as a key for stocks continuing to post gains — are reasonable right now, though he does expect the market will be more volatile around news events, especially as it relates to earnings. Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief for Bankrate.com, looks at their latest "emergency savings report," which showed that just 41 percent of Americans would use their savings to pay for a major unexpected expense, like a $1,000 car repair or medical emergency treatment. In the Market Call, Ken Applegate, portfolio manager for the Wasatch International Growth and International Select funds, talks global small-cap investing.
Steven Dover, chief market strategist for Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute — called the DeepSeek news that roiled the market over the weekend and into Monday "a Sputnik moment," comparing it to when the Russians stepped up the space race and the rest of the world responded. "If it's true that something is coming out that is much cheaper and easier for companies to use, that is going to incease the efficiency and productivity of the economy and help the broad market significantly," Dover said. He noted that the weekend's news — and the start of the new Trump Administration — have not shaken his outlook for 2025, when he sees low double-digit gains, a broadening of the stocks that are working and heightened volatility, but no recession. Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, talks about how he believes that liquidity concerns are being overlooked by investors now, but they have him fully short the market. He notes that "event risk" tends to be heightened when liquidity is impaired, which could add to market volatility now; he pointed out that the DeepSeek news highlighted market overconfidence because investors were unprepared for weekend event risk. In the Market Call, Max Wasserman, co-founder and senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital, talks about building a portfolio around dividend payers, with a mix of high- and low-growth companies.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that investors are nervous and have plenty of worries, but that there is a disconnect between those negative thoughts and what's actually going wrong because conditions continue to look good and be mostly unaffected by the worst things investors are scared of. That's a big reason why McMillan is optimistic now, noting as well that "The worse the rest of the world looks, the better we look because there's nowhere else to be;" while he expects heightened volatility, he also expects stocks to deliver low double-digit gains again this year. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the entire utility sector in the Danger Zone, noting that the vast majority of companies in the sector are unattractive or worse. Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com study showing that nearly one in four rewards cardholders left free money on the table last year. Plus Jon Wolfenbarger, founder and chief executive officer at BullAndBearProfits.com, brings his stock and ETF strategies to the Market Call.
Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that investors love a good story, but they tend to put too much stock in them and right now they are looking at a lot of things that either "can't" happen or "must" happen after two big-gain years for the market and they're making misguided decisions. He notes that the economy is likely to continue to avoid recession, especially as the 2020s will be looked back on as a period that pushed technology forward and created productivity and other gains that helped a mature economy keep growing. Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, discusses why short-term concerns have him on the sidelines right now -- even with the market potentially set to gain another 5 to 8 percent before he expects a downturn -- and what he will need to see to feel comfortable moving back into the market. In The NAVigator segment, Miguel Laranjeiro, investment director for municipal debt at Abrdn, says the appetite for muni-bond assets has been growing at a point when "tax-exempt yields look really attractive."
Jennifer Martin, vice president of global equities for T. Rowe Price, says that artificial intelligence is creating "contestable markets," which means that "Every company has to keep spending." That creates an economic imperative -- regardless of economic and market conditions -- that should help the stock market power through adjustments to the new administration's policies and concerning economic conditions. Martin discusses T. Rowe's 2025 Outlook, and how it has changed in the two months since it was issued, but she noted that the U.S. economy is set for another year of growth, and that value plays and small-cap stocks could be strong for international markets. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a long-term dividend payers for both income and growth in his ETF of the Week, and Ken Mahoney, chief executive officer at Mahoney Asset Management, brings his "GPS method" for picking stocks and ETFs to the Market Call, looking to ride companies and sectors where the players are beating estimates and raising their earnings guidance.
Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says that the stock market will need earnings growth to generate returns in 2025, but that those gains should run roughly equal to the level of earnings growth, leaving the market set up for low double-digit gains in 2025. He says that technology continues to provide a tailwind to the market, though henotes that the artificial intelligence evolution makes for a moving target where investors might want to gravitate towards industries that are adjacent to AI, making money off of the companies and sectors that use AI to drive profit gains. Ladner — whose firm practices goals-based planning — noted that while the U.S. economy remains the world's strongest, it would be a mistake to ignore international markets now. Leigh Purvis, prescription drug policy principal at the AARP Public Policy Institute discusses her research into showing that prices on brand-name drugs have been rising much faster than the rate of general inflation for decades, creating challenges — particularly for Medicare Part D enrollees — that many people have addressed by not refilling prescriptions or by skipping doses to make prescriptions last longer. Plus Dan Crowley, partner at Nightview Capital — portfolio manager of the Nightview Fund — brings his concentrated growth approach to the Market Call.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that "the elephant in the room" for the economy is the growing federal debt, now up to $36 trillion, which puts the Federal Reserve "in a pickle," because the debt will continue exploding if interest rates don't fall, but inflation could get out of control if the central bank cuts rates too fast. Doty sees an economy that will struggle to overcome that pressure, consumers that are reaching the limits on their spending and more, yet he doesn't foresee a recession this year just a slowdown that likely won't last long because he foresees the economy reaccelerating before year's end. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs celebrates Monday's holiday — which delayed his weekly appearance on the show — by discussing an undervalued, dividend-paying steel company stock as he turns his weekly Danger Zone into "The Attractive Zone," and financial psychotherapist Vicky Reynal discusses her new book, “Money on Your Mind” The Unconscious Beliefs That Sabotage Your Financial Well-Being – and How to Break Free.”
Daniel McCormack, head of research for Macquarie Asset Management, says that heightened volatility in 2025 should make investors want to stay nimble and flexible, but he expects reasonable growth and a healthy environment. Sharing his outlook for 2025, McCormack says he expects China to begin "exporting inflation again," which could the U.S. back above a 3 percent inflation rate, which might slow down the pace of rate cuts, but it won't throw the economy into a recession. Larry Holzenthaler, portfolio manager for First Eagle Alternative Credit, gave his outlook for credit markets in 2025, noting that after avoiding default troubles when rates were rising, the picture is better now, particularly in private credit. Jennifer White discusses a J.D. Power study showing that consumers don’t think their bank will help them out in an emergency, and how banks might be more helpful than customers expect, and Chuck answers a listener question about sequence-of-return risk.
Bob Elliott, chief investment officer for the Unlimited Funds, says investors entered 2025 with "euphoric expectations," but at a time when the market was going through a tightening, which is a set-up for the market to be flat or down for a few months. He says investors should curb their enthusiasm if they expect the market to perform as well as it has in the last two years, though he makes it clear that there are still good times to be had, just at the levels of 2023 and '24. Author Paul Podolsky discusses “The Uncomfortable Truth About Money," which is his latest book, focused on "living with uncertainty and [thinking] for yourself." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the banking sector for his ETF of the Week.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says growing earnings and profit margins are creating a dual tailwind for the stock market, and while he cites plenty of reasons for concern — including the potential for a double-digit market decline in the first half of 2025 — he's "not scared that the bull market is over." In both his 2025 outlook — released Tuesday — and in today's Big Interview, Detrick called for double-digit market gains, inflation that comes under control and allows the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year, and a change in market leadership that has him leaning into rebalancing and diversifying portfolios, with particular attention paid to financial, cyclical and industrial companies. Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that more than 1 in 10 Americans blew up their credit card debt over the holiday season, and that more people are carrying debt without any plan on how to pay it off. In the Market Call, it's discount shopping in the closed-end fund aisle with Eric Boughton, chief analyst for Matisse Captial and manager of the Matisse Discounted Closed-End Fund Strategy fund.
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy for Global X ETFs says "Investors had better be ready for some chop" in 2024, but he thinks fundamentals are good and expanding and the market will broaden so that the economy and market pick up in areas that have not done well of late. Those conditions may create a volatile market but should help fight off a slowing pace of interest rate cuts. Helfstein sees several themes leading the way, most notably artificial intelligence — both the providers and the AI infrastructure — but also power companies, and then infrastructure investing. His take on infrastructure — particularly in the power business — aligns with that of Rob Thummel, portfolio manager of the Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp. (TYG) Fund, who lays out his case for the sector in the Market Call. Plus, Willie Delwiche of Hi Mount Research makes a technical case for the market to take a breather before it can get re-achieve record highs, and Chuck Bell of Consumer Reports discusses a recent federal proposal to ban the inclusion of medical debt on credit reports.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that when there is a lot of uncertainty and geopolitical risk, the United States economy and markets benefit from the situation, even if the unrest is partially caused by the U.S. As a result, while many observers worry about what might change under the new Trump Administration, Mullarkey expects economic stability, noting that "given all the headwinds we all can think of, [the U.S.) is better fortified than any other economy right now to sustain continuous growth this year. ... The rest of the world is more at risk." David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, revisits Sweetgreen, which he put into the Danger Zone in 2021 and subsequently named a "zombie stock," which has bounced back significantly this year, setting it up for another fall. Plus, John Dorfman, chairman of Dorfman Value Investments brings his classic value style to the Market Call.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that while the stock market has done well at the index level — where a few big names carried the benchmarks to big years — the fuller story has been told at a lower level, where the market has had more struggles and there have been rolling recessions in various areas of the economy without triggering a full-blown, broad-based downturn. She says those conditions will persist for at least the first half of 2025, with the market continuing to roll on if earnings remain strong; to that end, she noted that the market's current expectations — calling for 14 percent earnings growth — seem high, which should make investors cautious at least until they see forward-looking estimates. Mark Gatto, co-founder and co-chief executive officer at CION Investment Group, says that global infrastructure spending estimated at as much as $3 trillion annually worldwide is creating an asset class that can overcome political challenges and that has significant earning potential, which is why his firm recently announced plans for the new CION Grosvenor Infrastructure Fund. And in the Market Call, Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners and the Alexis Practical Tactical fund talks about ETF investing.
Rob Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates, says that current markets resemble the dot-com markets in the narrative that everything is about to change due to technological advancements, but he notes that the dominant tech players from the year 2000 failed to beat the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the long-term future. He says that could happen again today with the artificial intelligence stocks, with the technology changing the world but the stocks having a less clear path forward. Arnott notes that the narratives have made the mega caps overvalued and the comparison to the dot-com era could continue with a market downturn, but he sees plenty of opportunities for investors who are willing to pursue deep value and small-cap strategies, as well as liquid alternatives and non-U.S. stocks to "have a decent shot at high single-digit returns" this year. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the exchange-traded version of a classic Fidelity fund his ETF of the Week, and Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management brings his classic growth investing style to the Market Call.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, foresees some slowdown in consumer activity this year — with middle-income consumers beginning to struggle — and he says that will lead to a sluggish economy with higher unemployment. He expects inflation to remain sticky, which will push the Federal Reserve to make fewer rate cuts — he says it's possible they make no rate reductions this year at all — though he does believe the economy can stave off a recession. He reviews his 10 forecasts for the year ahead in The Big Interview. But he's not the only guest gazing into the crystal ball for 2025, as Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, talks about what to expect from interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts over the next 12 months. And in the Market Call, David Allen of the Octane All-Cap Value Energy ETF talks about finding under-the-radar issues in the energy sector.
Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, says that "the most important thing we're watching is earnings" as an indicator for the year ahead, noting that in 2024 more of the performance came from earnings growth than from multiple expansion, particularly for the parts of the market like large-cap growth companies that had a banner year. While the stock market is still looking for interest rate cuts, Akullian says that earnings can overcome any disappointment that is likely as the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate cuts. For the year ahead — and iShares released its outlook for 2025 today — she is expecting modest gains, no recession, and continued struggles for international markets and small-cap stocks. Kim Blanton, who writes the Squared Away blog for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, discusses research which shows that delaying Social Security pays off for couples, but particularly for high-income families who get the best possible outcomes by being patient and who — because of their income — can afford to wait to achieve that outcome. Plus, Chuck answers questions about Morningstar and VettaFi and mutual fund research and ratings.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that 2025 is likely to see the leaders from the last few years move sideways while the rest of the market "can get some more traction and play a little catch-up." He notes that if the market broadens out and those other companies see earnings growth, it can keep the bull market rolling and offset a slowdown in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as the central bank responds to sticky inflation by slowing its pace of rate reductions. Scott Krase, wealth manager at Connor & Gallagher OneSource, makes his debut in the Market Call, talking about ETFs and how they particularly provide access to alternative asset classes in ways that ordinary investors can benefit from in current conditions. Chuck also reviews what he has long called his "change experiment," where he saves all of his cash below $10 bills, and how much that added up to not just in 2024 but since he started doing it in 2020.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that 2024 proved most pundits wrong, as they forecast years that were much more modest than the 25 percent that the stock market gained, with more economic struggles and more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. His forecasts, however, proved mostly right, as he reviews 2024 in today's Big Interview. Speaking of a review of the year just finished, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — looks back at the prognostications for the closed-end fund industry that he made a year ago and how the data now shows nearly all of them to have been correct. And as for prognostications, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, makes a big one in the Market Call when he says that the cycles that have favored large-caps over small stocks are now long in the tooth, which is why he is expecting small-caps to outperform over the next 15 years.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says 2025 will finish up a positive year, but it will likely be a year of single-digit gains that will be a struggle to achieve because the market is starting the year with stretched valuations and other headwinds. While he doesn't see a recession in the offing, Stovall sees other conditions making the market sluggish, ranging from the presidential cycle to the regular run of a bull market and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the big stories in the exchange-traded fund business from 2024 and how some of those issues will keep playing out for ETFs and investors in the new year. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund discusses business-centric, long-term investing.
Jim Lee, founder at StratFi, says investors can be "reasonably optimistic" about the first half of 2025, but says that by the time June rolls around "I'd start to get careful." Among the technical indicators Lee leans on is the "Kitchin Cycle," which runs 180 weeks (or three and a half years) and has a solid record over the last century, and the cycle is showing a market peak at the start of March in 2025. Less says the market has the momentum to keep rolling, but not too far past that peak in the Kitchin Cycle. Also on the show, Dana Miranda of the Healthy Rich newsletter discusses her new book, “You Don’t Need a Budget: Stop Worrying About Debt, Spend Without Shame and Manage Money with Ease,” Rita Assaf discusses the annual Financial Resolutions Study out from Fidelity, which showed a strong desire for "a year of living practically" in 2025, and Chuck discusses ways to measure the success of 2024, and how it fits into the big picture of both the market and of our personal lives.
Whether it is making resolutions, setting goals or establishing targets, Chuck has tried every kind of plan for financial self-improvement over his decades as a personal finance journalist, and today he talks about the importance of having a system that helps you focus on making progress and how to set yourself up to end 2025 better off than you are now. Also on the show, author Steven Foerster discusses his latest book, "Trailblazers, Heroes & Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor," and Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA Research talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the real story in cryptocurrency in 2024 has not been the massive gains in Bitcoin -- which is up about 120 percent year-to-date -- but the way the business has matured, adding crypto ETFs from some of Wall Street's biggest firms. Coupled with the new administration, which is crypto-friendly, it makes Hougan more positive about his outlook for the future, which he says includes plenty of room for crypto to run higher in 2025. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, digs into his mountain of data to divine the stories he anticipates to be central to the closed-end fund landscape in the new year, and also delivers the names of five funds that he thinks are poised for breakout performances. Plus, financial adviser Patti Brennan helps answer the big question most investors want to know for the new year and beyond, as she discusses her new book, “Am I Going to Be Okay? Timely Intelligence, Actionable Ideas, Answers to the Questions that Really Matter.”
Teralyn Pilgrim, author of "No Scrap Left Behind: My Life Without Food Waste," says that Americans are wasting significant dollars each month, simply with how they buy and use their groceries. She's not preaching radical lifestyle change as much is simply trying to plan and use food purchases efficiently to reduce or eliminate food waste. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the year that was for ETFs; Kevin Roth, head of research for the CFP Board of Standards discusses the group's annual Debt and New Year's Resolution Report, which clearly shows that finances play a big role in New Year's resolutions. Plus,Sam Fleming, co-founder / chief technology officer at Moat Metrics, brings his firm's methods into focus in the Money Life Market Call.
Avi Gilburt, founder of Elliott Wave Trader, says the market is in the final throes of a bull market that has been in place for nearly a century, noting that while there may be one more high or buying opportunity before things are exhausted, he sees the market turning in the next few months, noting that the Standard & Poor's 500 decisively breaking the 5400 support level would be a sign that a bear market has begun. Then, Daniel Crosby, host of the Standard Deviations Podcast, discusses his new book, "The Soul of Wealth: 50 reflections on money and meaning;" After that, Allison Hadley talks about a new CardRates.com study showing that nearly half of Americans expect to return 1-3 gifts this holiday season. And in the Market Call, Scott Martindale, chief executive at Sabrient Systems, talks about picking "high performance stock portfolios," using the methods of Sabrient's founder, David Brown, who recently released a book on building a portfolio based on high-octane stocks.
Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group, says investors who are worried about the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates as much as previously expected are missing the idea that it's a sign of a solid backdrop for economic growth. She notes that the market and investors "crave the sugar high from more policy accommodations," and are overlooking the potential for the market to move forward in 2025. "We're not going to put up the same kind of returns we did in the last two years," Agati says, "but I think the market can grow at a pace that aligns with earnings growth;" she says earnings could grow at a pace of 10 to 15 percent year over year. Financial adviser Harmon Kong, discusses his new book, "Values Over Valuables: Daring to Live the Life Money Can't Buy" and — speaking of what money can't buy — Melissa Stephenson discusses a Solitaire Bliss study which showed that many Americans are unable to afford travel and time off, making finances a big part of why many Americans will celebrate the holidays alone this year. Plus, Cynthia McLaughlin, investment editor at AAII — lead editor at VMQ Stocks — talks about value, momentum and quality investing in the Money Life Market Call.
Mary Ellen Stanek, chief investment officer at Baird Advisors — president of the Baird Funds — says that the need to slow interest rate cuts has been building for a while, but that it's a sign of a strong economy and it's good for bond investors, without taking all of the starch out of the stock market. She says this week's news from the Federal Reserve about slowing cuts doesn't change Baird's forecast for 2025, noting that they expected good values in bonds through the new year and that those yields only got better with the latest announcement from the central bank. Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group, discusses the wild rate of inflation seen in the firm's 41st annual Christmas Price Index, which this year showed that the cost of buying your true love the gifts from the 12 Days of Christmas would set you back nearly $50,000. Bryan Piccirillo discusses an Edward Jones survey which showed that 81 percent of Americans are confident in their ability to keep their financial resolutions — the big ones being building a savings account, paying off credit card debt and increasing income — despite the terrible success rate that resolutions normally have. Plus, Ken Burdon, a partner in the registered funds practice at Simpson Thacher and Bartlett, discusses how the return of President Donald Trump might benefit closed-end funds.
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, sees the market as being due for a big correction after an "amazing move" over the last two years, but he also sees the market beginning a new era of capital innovation and creativity that will help to push the market back to new heights over the next few years. He notes that artificial intelligence will keep leading the way higher, though he says he typically prefers the AI-adjacent companies to the direct players in the space. He also discusses gold, crypto and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to double down on the winners of the Nasdaq Composite with his pick for ETF of the Week, and Peter Schneider, president of Primerica, discusses the firm's latest Financial Security Monitor, which showed that recent gains in purchasing power don't have middle-income families feeling any better about their personal finances. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds, talks technology stocks and where the next round of AI winners might come from.
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that the current stock market reminds him of the late 1990s -- with a super strong dollar, a few stocks driving the market while the others are mediocre, where the American market and economy are exceptional and more -- but as economic seasons changed, it was the rest of the market that thrived. That's what he sees happening again now, so he is preaching diversification, especially toward small-cap stocks but also with international investments and commodities, as a way of growing and protecting a portfolio in 2025. In The Book Interview, financial columnist and historian Rodney Brooks discusses “The Rise and Fall of the Freedman’s Savings Bank and It’s Lasting Socio-Economic Impact on Black America,” and Eric Schoenstein, portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Jensen Investment Management discusses quality investing in The Market Call.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that the market is about 25 percent overvalued, but the momentum of the market suggests that investors shouldn't worry about an immediate downturn. Ablin says that traditional value metrics show the overvaluation and says that lofty prices eventually meet up with momentum that gets exhausted, leading to "a pretty good exit point." But he notes that "Value is always early," and there "still a lot more room" for the market to run before it rolls over. In the Talking Technicals segment, Gene Peroni, founder of Peroni Portfolio Advisors, also sees the market's potential for downturn, but he says that the market has effectively ignored Wall Street adages, cyclical and seasonal factors, psychological considerations and has moved to its own beat, with a strong technical foundation that should enable it to weather storms and turn any potential downturns into buying opportunities. In the Money Life Market Call, Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager at Seven Canyons Advisors, talks high-growth small-cap international/emerging markets stocks.
Disagreement makes a market, and the market on Robinhood Markets was wide open on this show as David Trainer of New Constructs put the stock in The Danger Zone, but Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, made the stock a "buy" during "Quick and Dirty" in the Money Life Market Call. Also on the show, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureau of Eastern Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont talks about personalization scams — where people are being ripped off in multiple ways while buying personalized gifts for the holidays — and discusses how to avoid holiday frauds. Plus, Lauren FitzHugh, vice president of growth at Fruition — Money Life's newest sponsor — discusses the benefits of having all of your investment, bank and spending accounts linked together in one place, and the peace of mind that comes with better control of your finances.
Despite headlines that have dominated the news stating concerns about the stock market and its ability to keep thriving under a new political administration, Mick Heyman, founder of Heyman Investment Counseling, doesn't see the warning signs of a terrible market. "Close your eyes, it's fear of heights, and just let the long-term trend continue on," Heyman said. He is not the only one who sees little trouble evident on the horizon, as Vuk Vuković, chief investment officer at Oraclum Capital, sees the economy being able to avoid a recession throughout 2025. Ravi Chintapalli from the Global Fixed Income team at Nuveen, says in The NAVigator that structural changes have made the junk bond market stronger, while reducing default risk; as a result, yields of 7 percent should be normal and comfortable in 2025. Plus Mac Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli talks financial stocks in the Market Call.
Ben Harburg, founder of CoreValues Alpha — manager of the firm's Greater China Growth ETF — says that consumers in China have over $21 trillion in household savings sitting on the shelf and that as that money starts to be spent, it will drive the Chinese market to a long recovery. That should be happening at a time when Chinese stocks "are near rock bottom" but U.S. equities have been running to record highs, making China a good diversifier for American investors looking for protection against a setback here. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a free cash-flow ETF that opened in 2023 and that has risen to the top of its large-cap value peer group this year as his ETF of the Week. In the Market Call, Noland chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management, returns to the show to discuss his version of growth investing; one area he particularly likes now is the big cruise companies.
Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. — one of the longest-tenured and most decorated bond fund managers in history — says that the Federal Reserve has done its job and managed to avoid most of the trouble that observers feared was coming. Moreover, it has positioned the economy and the bond market to keep humming along. Yet Fuss also singles out several factors, including climate change and geo-politics, that are not usually factors in bond investing that are having a big impact on bond investing now. WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo discusses the site's research on the best and most-popular gift cards for the holiday season, and Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds, talks in the Market Call about how he practices deep-value investing at a time when the market is at record-high levels.
Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates, says investors "have a lot to look forward to," starting with a strong ending to the year and a big January effect, but he notes that conditions are right to keep the economy chugging along and pushing through the occasional stumble and correction. That said, he notes in The Big Interview that he is worried about the potential for trouble in the private credit market — where investors have been chasing super high yields for several years — to potentially create a full-blown market crash, akin to what the market experienced in 2008. Navellier also talks about his stock-picking methodology and his grading system in The Market Call. In the Talking Technicals segment, Xander Gray, founder and chief executive officer at XG Capital Strategies says that there's a recession and significant market drop coming, likely to start before the end of the first quarter of the new year. The recession is the fallout of the inverted yield curve; while many experts have said the economy will avoid the downturn that typically comes with that condition, Gray says there are plenty of reasons why investors should remain defensive now.
Todd Kellenberger, portfolio manager for public REITs at Principal Asset Management, expects that the Federal Reserve will make two to three interest rate cuts in 2025, but that the way rates move will be the real determinant in how the year plays out for real estate investors. Kellenberger says that the central bank's actions will be determined by inflation and jobs data, but he notes that if rates stay benign it will still be a good market for real estate, with the potential for much more if rates move more and the economy has a soft landing where real estate fundamentals improve. He gives his outlook for a variety of REIT types in a wide-ranging Big Interview. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs puts MicroStrategy Inc. in the Danger Zone, noting that the company is essentially a costly, leveraged play on bitcoin with more risk than an investor would face just owning cryptocurrency directly. And Michael Lowenberg, portfolio manager for the Modern Capital Tactical Income fund, talks in the Money Life Market Call about what he looks for in closed-end funds.
Brandon Thurber, chief market strategist at Regions Asset Management, says the market is looking strong for the next 12 to 18 months, provided it can avoid a big earnings shortfall. With high earnings expectations, he sees earnings pressure overhanging a market that is overbought but which still has pockets that represent good values. Thurber sees the market broadening out, with mid-caps being part of the rally but small companies likely to keep struggling, delivering moderate growth despite increased levels of volatility than investors have seen this year. Likewise, Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel — co-manager of the Chase Growth Fund — says that all of the market's underlying fundamentals are positive right now, and he suggests to stick with a friendly trend, even though they should look for "any cracks that begin to develop" that could be signs that the economy is turning. Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management — which runs the Smart Trust Unit Investment Trusts — expects that rate cuts in the next two years will drive investors to turn for income alternatives "since they can't find the 5 percent in the short-term CDs any more." That will drive investors toward business development companies and leveraged municipal closed-end funds, and he discusses the benefits of playing those areas of the market using unit investment trusts.
Lauren Sanfilippo, senior investment strategist for Bank of America Merrill and Private Bank, says that the market has reached highs on the backs of a few stocks, but that it is now rotating away from those popular trades. That will reward investors who stay balanced and diversified as the market broadens out next year, moving away from the Magnificent Seven stocks and a few names driving results to rewarding more companies with solid balance sheets in sectors from defense to technology, industrials and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a short-duration, actively managed fixed-income fund his ETF of the Week. WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo, discusses the site's research into how average rates on department-store credit cards have popped to roughly 33 percent, but also how consumers looking to deferred interest deals wind up paying more because they don't understand how the programs work. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about paper stock certificates.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, sees "rational exuberance" on today's market, noting that the stock market is a little bit expensive but not dramatically above long-term normal forward earnings numbers, and he notes that expectations are reasonable, a little high but reasonable. Further, he suggests that all-time low levels of leverage and little debt on the books of the Standard & Poor's 500 is "a significant risk offset" to the current worries that make investors nervous. Author Michael Sincere — who writes the Long-Term Trader column at MarketWatch — discusses his new book, “Help Your Child Build Wealth: A Parents' Guide to Teaching Children to be Successful Investors,” and then sticks around to discuss technical analysis and how he sees the market moving on from the election and through the change of administrations into 2025.
Josef Schuster, president of IPOX Schuster, says that the market for initial public offerings isn't just hot right now — it has outperformed the stock market this year, despite the market having gone up to record-high levels — but it is safer than it has been in years, with fewer issues going public and with much of the risk of default having been shifted to the pre-IPO market. And while artificial-intelligence plays have gotten a lot of the headlines and attention, Schuster says that industrials and other sectors have seen more stable and generally more profitable IPO activity. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association says that the November Beer Purchasers Index shows a highly unusual but completely neutral outlook for distributor sentiment, meaning the industry can't tell if times are bullish or bearish with year-end in sight. Plus college financial aid advisor Jack Wang, host of the new "Smart College Buyer" podcast, helps Chuck answer a listener's question about college loans coming due, and jeopardinging an unprepared parent's finances.
Bill Smead, manager of the Smead Value Fund, (SMVLX), says that the market has "all the pre-conditions for the [Standard and Poor's 500 to do very poorly," noting that current conditions are the "antithesis of 1980," when everyone got excited about Ronald Reagan took office at a time when stocks were cheap and inflation and interest rates are high. This time, he says, people are getting excited "at the end of a huge run .... a financial euphoria episode." He says in the Market Call that these conditions will lead to strong market performance over the next two decades, but to much tougher sledding over the next few years. One area that investors might turn to for relief would be gold, which has been on a big run in 2024 to get to record-high levels, and Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says he thinks that precious metals rally and gains are sustainable for at least the next 18 months — even if it goes through a short-term correction caused by profit-taking — because the conditions that have created the rally are likely to remain in place. Plus, Allison Hadley discusses a study fone for Luke Zion Jewelry which showed that Americans spend nearly $1,500 a year on "fashion."
John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, looks at how discounts have narrowed in closed-end funds amid the strong market this year, but he digs into his firm's data to find three closed-end funds and one business development company trading at attractive discounts to make them appropriate picks for year-end portfolio moves. Julia Toothacre discusses a ResumeTemplates.com, study showing that six-in 10 employees will be shopping Black Friday sales while at work today, Chuck discusses the ultimate financial gift to give your relatives this (and every year) -- so that you can get your shopping done before the shopping season even starts in earnest -- and Eric Marshall, president of Hodges Capital Management, talks small-cap investing in the Market Call.
Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group, likes small-cap stocks, financials and consumer discretionary and industrial companies, saying he expects a lot of the recent winners to slow as part of a shift in leadership that could lead to a market that slows or creates attractive buying opportunities with intermediate-term losses. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, returns to the Standard & Poor's 500 for the second week in a row, but this time picks an all-time classic that has been having record inflows as his "ETF of the Week." And in the Market Call, Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, talks about looking for long-term themes, but buying them at reasonable prices, and discusses how that has him handling a hot space like artificial intelligence.
Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, sees the stock market completing its current rally with a small gain that would move the Standard and Poor's 500 to about 6,200. But once the holiday euphoria passes, she sees the market being hit, taking the S&P 500 down to roughly 4800. She also worries about how gold and oil prices will play out as the second Trump administration follows through on some of its campaign promises. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com, discusses the site's latest survey on Americans' Social Security needs, noting that more than half of the nation's not-yet-retired workers expect to rely on the program to pay for "necessary expenses," but nearly three-quarters of Americans are concerned they won't get their promised benefits once they hit retirement age. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's questions about hiring a financial adviser to help manage an inheritance.
The National Association for Business Economics released its November Outlook Survey today, and nearly all of the economists surveyed expect moderating growth and slowing inflation but, most importantly, no recession until at least 2026. Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide and the outlook survey chairperson for NABE, called the results "Goldilock-ish," noting that forecasting firmer growth and slower inflation than they did in September, the economists are effectively expecting a near-perfect landing for the economy, with downside expectations decreased. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, revisits Beyond Meat, noting that a number of different Danger Zone picks have recently had big rebounds, but that the plant-based meat maker hasn't gotten that kind of life support from the market, which is why he expects it to complete its destiny as a "zombie stock" in 2025. Plus, Nael Fakhry, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Growth and Income fund, discusses "quality growth companies" in the Market Call.
After waiting over three years for "one of the worst recessions ever anticipated that never happened," Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the economy is now moving forward without much recession worry, buoyed by consumer spending — especially from Baby Boomers — and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that he considered mostly unnecessary. Yardeni sees the economy going through another "Roaring 20s" period, and while the one a century ago ended in the Great Depression, he does think that outcome is not inevitable provided the government can keep debt and deficit levels under control while riding out the benefits of the "Digital Revolution" that includes all of the excitement around artificial intelligence and technology. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors says the market's technicals are showing all green lights for a continuing bull market, and investors should lean in and treat downturns as buying opportunities. Dilley makes a case for the Standard & Poor's 500 to reach 7,500, getting as high as 6,400 by year's end, with only "normal pullbacks" on the road to that higher level. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments — manager of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals — on why gold has worked better as a geo-political hedge than as a buffer against inflation.
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that 'the soft landing was earlier this year,' and now the Federal Reserve is trying to "prevent a recession in an otherwise fairly healthy but unevenly distributed economy." Bory notes that central bankers typically cut interest rates to stimulate a slowing economy, but that's not the case currently in the United States, where he says the Fed is trying to bring rates down more in line with inflation, and that has changed the shape of the yield curve, dropping short-term rates but making it that long-term rates — including mortgage rates — aren't likely to fall by much even with additional rate cuts. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi picks a market-index fund with an options overlay — an ETF that's delivering yields of roughly 9 percent — as his "ETF of the Week." Thomas Cole, co-founder of Distillate Capital — a firm that makes "stability" a prime factor in its investment methodology — brings his numbers-oriented value-investing approach to the Money Life Market Call.
Nick Nefouse, global head of retirement solutions in the multi-asset strategies and solutions team at BlackRock, says that in a world where investors are increasingly nervous about sequence-of-return risk — the potential for the market to crater just as they start withdrawing from their retirement nestegg, forever damaging their finances — and longevity risk, investors may be looking for ways to lock in income, so that they can avoid those concerns. He discusses how investors should be reconsidering risk as they enter "the retirement window," which he notes starts in your 50s and runs for some people into their 70s. Jon Stubbs, analyst at Clever Real Estate, talks about what has been happening to the average real estate commission in light of a settlement that was supposed to change the way buyer's agents were compensated and reduce costs for seller in the process. Plus, Chuck discusses a little error he made in a financial transaction this weekend that could have turned into a huge problem, and how and why it is crucial that consumers using payment apps understand that they may be on the hook for blunders, no matter how innocent and unintentional.
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial expects the stock market's return levels to "return to normal," which means slower growth but not anything that ends the bull market as it rolls through its third year. Turnquist does think the short-term action has put the bulls on trial, forcing them to prove that the market can go higher without some sort of interim downturn. Turnquist thinks the market could take a setback to its Halloween lows, but that action would be an opportunity to buy the dip. Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and portfolio manager at Ariel Investments, brings his classic, Warren Buffett-style of value investing to the Market Call, and Chuck talks about how the car dealer who sold his step-daughter the car that exacerbated her ear problems resolved the issue over this weekend, and the valuable — and pricey — lessons he and his step-daughter took away from the process.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, sees "unprecedented degrees of overvaluation" in the market, and he says the market is "dramatically overvalued" and at risk of a severe correction, but he notes that economic and fundamental models are pretty good, and investor behavior keeps driving momentum, so the positives continue to drive the market more than the overvaluation does. That means the market can rise from here, but Folts thinks investors should use "targeted diversification" over many asset classes to make it work. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, also thinks the market is severely overvalued, and he singles out Shake Shack — which is up nearly 140 percent over the last year — as an example of something that is severely overpriced and due for a fall. Plus, Chuck discusses troubles with a recent used-car purchase by his step-daughter, and the financial lessons the transaction is actively teaching him now.
David Keller, president and chief strategist at Sierra Alpha Research says that the market has made meaningful moves to landmark new highs but he questions whether the rally is sustainable. He says that market leaders like the Magnificent Seven need to keep rolling to propel the indexes higher, and he says that weakness is showing up in Alphabet and Meta Platforms, which makes him believe that the market's upside potential at this point may be limited. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that the red sweep of the election has improved business confidence and sentiment over what is coming through the policy pipeline, and says that the prospect of tax cuts, a lighter regulatory regime and on-shoring of manufacturing will continue to propel the animal spirits of the market, and while inflation-sensitive sectors will struggle, he is confident that the economy can overcome tariff uncertainty and other issues to remain strong. Josh Duitz, portfolio manager for the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Fund, took a break from the program at the Active Investment Company's Fall Roundtable in New York this week to discuss the state of infrastructure investing now that the presidential election has been decided and the policies of the second Trump Administration are becoming more clear. And Allison Hadley discusses a survey done for BadCredit.org which showed that 37 percent of Americans say that inflation and the higher cost of living has them neglecting their friends.
Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute discusses the firm's research looking at whether campaign promises have translated into long-term outperformance for sectors that were likely to benefit from proposed policies, and while there were positive gains in the immediate aftermath of elections, many sectors underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index over the following four years. As a result, Christopher suggests caution for anyone expecting president-elect Trump's "Drill baby drill" plan to turn into oversized oil-industry gains once he takes office. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to regional banks for his ETF of the Week, noting that while they have been up sharply since election day, there is reason to expect that this rally has legs. Plus, we have tow interviews conducted at the Active Investment Company Alliance's Fall Roundtable in New York on Nov. 13, where Chuck talked with individual investor Jim Cohen and then discussed gold and how it performs in an economy with falling interest rates but higher inflation with Axel Merk of Merk Investments and the ASA Gold and Precious Metals fund.
Laurence Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University — the founder of Maxifi, which factors economics into personal financial planning — says that while the economy is humming along now, investors should be wary of the potential for trouble, especially stemming from the high levels of tariffs that were a part of President Donald Trump's campaign promises. Kotlikoff — who hosts the Economics Matters podcast — worries that if tariffs are placed at levels not seen since the Great Depression, they could result in dramatic inflation and other problems as other nations respond and retaliate. Kotlikoff also discusses how investors should be thinking about the timing for making Roth IRA conversions now, and how to determine the right amount of life insurance to hold. Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, returns to the show to discuss the latest print edition of the almanac for 2025, and how a classic effort like a printed almanac fits into a market world that leans hard into technology. Plus Melissa Stephenson discusses a PlayUSA.com study which showed that Americans are struggling with "tip fatigue," with 1 in 3 Americans admitting that they tip less money or less often now than they used to.
Jerremy Newsome, founder at Real Life Trading, says he thinks the stock market has entered another period like the Roaring 20s of a century ago, and while that period ended withthe start of the Great Depression, Newsome says he thinks "we're in the middle right now. ... I see that we have truly three to six good years left of overall, bull sustainable markets before we have that big, big, big meltdown." Jeffrey Hirsh, chief executive at Hirsch Holdings — the editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, which is known for researching how the presidential election cycles impact the stock market — says he sees the current bull market running at least until the mid-term elections in 2026, and he notes that a Republican president at a time with a Republican-led House and Senate typically tends to result in strong market times. While not the best combination — which occurs when a Democrat is in the White House but Republicans control Congress — conservative policies generally favor the markets. Plus, Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, on a study showing that more than half of Americans made at least one impulse buy last holiday season, driven more often by pursuit of "a good deal" rather than a treat for themselves, and Chuck answers a listener's question about "the biggest risk we are facing today."
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, says his forecast for 2025 now includes fewer rate cuts, slightly higher inflation, and increased fiscal support for the economy, but those conditions are signs of an an economy "that's humming along, continuing to grow, it's not a recession," and he says the risk of a recession in the next year or two is now "back to its historical normal." Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal — the keeper of the American Association of Individual Investors' sentiment survey — discusses how bullish sentiment was on the rise and bearish sentiment on the decline in the immediate aftermath of the election, and that the impact could last for more than the few big-volume trading days the market posted last week. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, revisits Peloton, one of the first "zombie stocks" the company started labeling back in 2022, discussing why the company's recent run — up about 150 percent in the last three months — is not going to save it from the ultimate financial death its numbers say it must suffer. Plus, Alison Hadley discusses a survey on the impact of social media on fashion purchases, which found that social media — and specifically "outfit of the day" posts — inspired the average American to make roughly $250 in purchases over the last six months.
Doug Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist at Channel Capital Research Institute — the author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" — says that under the new Trump Administration it is possible to return to a status where goods inflation is declining while wage growth pushes core inflation up, which could lead Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to be reluctant to make further rate cuts. While he expects more after Thursday's quarter-point reduction, he thinks the pace of cuts may be slower than many Fed watchers currently anticipate. Jared Hagen, vice president at XA Investments, discusses the unprecedented growth in interval and tender-offer funds that has happened this year and how the number of funds in registration guarantees that the trend will continue through 2025. And Gwen Merz of the Fiery Millennials blog and her husband Tim Joiner — co-hosts of the FIRE Talks podcast — help Chuck answer a question from a listener whose financial life is off to a great start but who is so busy trying to reduce debt that she's struggling to find a comfortable work-life balance.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Calamos Standard & Poor's 500 Structured Alt Protection ETF for November his "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund has 100 percent downside protection, making it ideal for investors who were shocked by the election results and who think the market is headed for a downturn. Rosenbluth runs through the complex details on the fund, which caps investor gains at 7.43 percent for investors who are willing to give up some upside potential for protection against downturns. Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig, returns to discuss his recent piece on “trustwashing,” where financial advisers use the media – articles, self-published books, media appearances and more – to gain credibility that their actions as a planner have not really earned, noting that investors must look past superficial credentials when picking a planner. Plus, Derek Izuel, chief investment officer at Shelton Capital Management, discusses international and emerging markets investing in the Money Life Market Call.
Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig — who recently released the third edition of "The Intelligent Investor," Benjamin Graham's classic that many believe is the greatest investment book of all time — says that 'It used to be that your stockbroker tried to pick your pocket, and now your stockbroker is in your pocket." Those changes in technology make it hard for investors to stay focused on the long-term, which is where most will make their substantive financial gains. Zweig discusses how and why Graham's classic required updating — he last updated the book, adding commentary throughout — over 20 years ago — even though value investing still works well as Graham defined it in the original version in 1949. Steve Sanders, executive vice president of marketing and development for Interactive Brokers talked about the firm's Forecast Trader Market, which effectively allows investors to buy options on political events, economic data releases and climate indicators, ostensibly to hedge portfolios against current events, although in a way that Chuck notes feels more like sports betting than investing. Plus, in The Big Interview, Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, talks fixed-income investing as the economy expects a rate-cutting cycle to continue with news out of the Federal Reserve coming on Thursday.
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says he won't be surprised if there is a "normal correction" for the stock market once the presidential election is decided, followed by a pick-up into year's end, regardless of the election outcome. Kalish says he is skeptical that the economy can get to a 2 percent inflation level sustainably without going through a recession, but he does not have a recession prediction in his outlook, which argues for no landing over the next year or two. He expects the market to keep growing, albeit not at the pace seen over the last two years. Larry Tentarelli, editor of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, says that he is holding to a year-end target for the Standard and Poor's 500 of 6,000 to 6,100 — a gain of about 5 percent from current levels — provided the presidential election is decided in a timely fashion, so that uncertainty doesn't start to setin and cause unexpected problems. Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones discusses the firm's research into caregivers and the sandwich generation, which showed that caregiving responsibilities have sapped the confidence of American women about their ability to save for the future. And while the election results likely won't be known for several days, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com talks about the pocketbook issues that Americans are facing and how the election could impact what happens next.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says the Federal Reserve has little choice when it meets this week but to follow through on its signals and cut interest rates by one-quarter of a percent, noting that anything larger or smaller than that come Thursday would wind up being destabilizing for the market. The anticipated rate cut, however, may not move all interest rates as expected; McBride noted that mortgage rates actually have surged since the Fed's oversized first cut in September and they may not follow in lock-step with the next move either. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence — co-host of the Trillions podcast — talks about the spate of new, unusual investing ideas that have been turned into ETFs recently — from BattleShares to the oxymoronic single-stock ETFs — and how most of them will go away when the stock market takes its next protracted downturn. David Trainer of New Constructs revisits WarbyParker — which he first put in the Danger Zone as it was launching its initial public offering, but which he says is even more radically overvalued now, and Eden Cooper, founder and managing partner at Drift Capital discusses crowdfunding classic automobiles and the return potential of classic cars.
Mark Newton, Global Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, expects the market to go through a brief correction after the election, but to have turned that into a buying opportunity by the time December rolls around, bringing with it a Santa Claus rally to end the year. Newton says that for all of the worries investors have about the market, the numbers remain solid and while it may not support continued gains like we have seen in the last two years, it should keep the market from a major, protracted downturn. John Cole Scott, President of Closed-End Fund Advisors digs into his firm's data to break down a stellar third quarter for closed-end funds, which saw a significant narrowing of discounts but where he still sees buying opportunities now. James Abate, Chief Investment Officer at Centre Funds — manager of the Centre Global Infrastructure Fund, the top-performing fund in its peer group year-to-date — talks infrastructure investing in The Market Call, and Chuck talks about how the trick-or-treaters at his house on Halloween took to deciding between cash or candy in his annual trade-or-treat challenge.
Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says the stock market is likely to moderate, but investors should lean into any volatility or price declines as an opportunity to buy and build their portfolio. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Mahajan — who sees a soft landing as the most likely economic outlook — gives her take on every asset class from the Magnificent Seven to small-cap stocks, from bonds and precious metals to alternative investments. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Van Eck Morningstar SMID Moat fund his ETF of the Week. In the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser, discusses Vanguard funds and ETFs.
Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners, says his firm's models are finding two economic factors looking negative with just one — stock price direction — looking bullish, and when that happens it typically means the market is nearing "a major inflection point and a significant change in market conditions," though there is always a chance that it is simply a refreshing pause before the market resumes its climb. Either way, he does not expect the market to turn to where it has a long sideways move from here. Anthony Martin, chief executive officer at Choice Mutual, discusses the firm's survey which showed that 60% of Americans don't think they'll check everything off their bucket list, although what they are putting on the bucket list varies so widely that the survey may just be an indictment on the process of making a list. Plus, in the Market Call, Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services — editor at The DRIP Investor — uses the firm's Quadrix research system to evaluate stocks, and identifies one stock that he believes could be "the next Nvidia."
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says the stock market "doesn't know exactly what to do here," with the economy clicking but sector bets being hard to make because it's hard to know which areas to favor until the re4sults of the election are in. Still, Kosar is generally bullish, noting that he has been risk-on since early August and that he will feel even more strongly if technology stocks can push the Nasdaq through previous highs for several days, clearing the way for more upside from tech stocks. Then, we finish up coverage from FinCon '24, chatting with Marty Steffens, the SABEW Endowed Chair in Business Journalism at the University of Missouri, about the tension between "journalism" and "content creation," and what it means for individual investors who are looking at those different work products. Plus, Bindu and Prahlad Pant — the parents of FinCon rock star Paula Pant of the Afford Anything Podcast — give their first-ever podcast interview, discussing how their daughter came up with her attitudes about money and spending, before Paula herself talks about money attitudes for consumers now.
Joseph Hogue of the YouTube channel "Let's Talk About Money with Joseph Hogue" says investors want to keep the bulk of their money in simple buy-and-hold strategies and shouldn't be swayed by wild recommendations coming from the blogging and podcasting community, but also says that they should scratch the itch of their fun side -- if they have one -- by taking controlled chances with the fun-money portion of their portfolio. Jillian Johnsrud, host of the "Retire Often" podcast, discusses why and how people should plan regular breaks and re-sets in their career. Shane Walker, chief executive officer at Qube Money, talks about how modern tools are helping consumers take control of their money in ways that, until recently, would not have been possible. Financial adviser Jim Blankenship — the blogger behind "Financial Ducks in a Row" — talks about why consumers and investors are feeling uncomfortable with the stock market in record-high territory. Ava Johns, affiliate marketing specialist at Turbotenant.com discusses how affiliate marketing is used by influencers and popular blogs and podcasts, and how consumers may want to pay attention to how those deals work. Plus Joe Saul-Sehy of the Stacking Benjamins podcast gives his impressions of how FinCon — and the world of bloggers, podcasters and content creators — has changed over the years.
FinCon '24 continues from Atlanta, and the conference has a heavy emphasis on financial coaching this year, which comes through in a few of today's conversations from the annual meeting of bloggers, podcasters, content creators, coaches and more. Chuck's guests include KeyAnder Early of How Money Works, who focuses on financial literacy and teaching young adults; Bill Yount, co-host of the "Catching Up to F.I." podcast, which helps people who start their journey to financial independence later in life; Jen Yip, founder of the Lunch Money app, a fintech start-up that provides budgeting services and financial management; Stacy Blackshear of Rewire Behavior Financial Coaching, which works with parents of kids with disabilities to give them financial control and hope; and Dr. Disha Spath, the founder of The Frugal Physician. Plus, in The NAVigator, portfolio manager Jonathan Browne of RiverNorth Capital Management discusses why muni-bond closed end funds are a particularly good value play right now.
Gwen Merz Joiner, who runs the Fiery Millennials blog, says that living a radical financial life trying to amass a nestegg to quit working left her exhausted and unfulfilled, but as she loosens the purse strings today, she notes that she is in her 30s and has amassed a nest egg sufficient to get her through retirement without ever setting another dollar into her 401(k). She describes the ups and downs of FI/RE -- financial independence, retire early -- in an interview from FinCon 2024. In other interviews from the conference being held this week in Atlanta, Chuck chats with Doug Nordman of Military Financial Independence, Charly Stoever of the Unicorn Millionaire podcast, and Zach Whelchel of My Budget Coach. plus, making his regular Thursday appearance on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, the head of research at VettFi, makes Fidelity Corporate Bond fund his ETF of the Week.
For all of the complaints consumers have about inflation, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors says that the precious metal needs "sustained high inflation" — which he defines as at least two years with inflation above 5 percent — and those conditions were not met, so gold didn't respond to rising prices. Meanwhile, gold has been rolling because it is a good hedge against geo-political risk and Milling-Stanley expects that to continue, given global tensions now. Moreover, Milling-Stanley expects a soft landing for the economy, though he believes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is determined to deliver "a period of below-trend growth" to return the economy to stable well-being, and that transition could feel rough for investors. Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services, agrees that a soft landing is likely, though he expects that the market will face more turbulence and will fly at lower altitudes as the economy slows during the rate-cutting cycle the Fed recently started. Plus, Kristine Stevenson of Proverbs 1616 — the author of "How to Avoid Trouble With the IRS 10 Best Tax Tips for the Self-Employed, Gig Worker, and Indie Contractor" — answers a question from a listener who is hoping to resolve tax problems that have arisen during a health crisis, troubles that she doesn't want to leave her kids as an inheritance.
Jack Janasiewicz, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, says the economy can keep supporting earnings growth, and as long as earnings are marching higher, it should pull the equity market up further. While warning that investors may have to adjust expectations after two big years that make an encore unlikely, Janasiewicz says that heightened volatility amid geopolitical tensions is more a wild-card or an unknown than a detonator for trouble. Moreover, he notes that if the global market takes a turn driven by war or political tensions, the U.S. will remain "the best house in a tough neighborhood." Tom Rossi discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's annual "planning and progress study," which showed a significant gap between what Gen Z and Millennials expect to receive from their parents an inheritance and what their parents are actually planning to leave behind. Plus, Toni Turner, President of TrendStar Trading Group, says the technicals show that "We're still in a bull market," and while she is taking a little off the table to play defense against heightened volatility through the election and into the new year, she doesn't currently anticipate some deep decline even as the market digests some of its big gains from the last two years.
Vishal Khanduja, Head of the Broad Markets Fixed Income team at Morgan Stanley, says with inflation trending downward, labor data will be what the Federal Reserve is most focused on, and as those numbers move the central bank may take a choppy path toward rate reductions. While that may keep the market on edge, Khanduja notes that corporate and consumer balance sheets are very strong right now — which is unusual at the start of a rate-cutting cycle — which combined with reduced inflation and low-but-stable growth should result in a soft landing. Chip Lupo discusses the early holiday shopping survey from WalletHub, which showed that 46% of Americans enter the 2024 holidays still paying off debt they rang up during the Christmas season last year. Investment analyst Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts PGIM Jennison Mid-Cap Growth in "The Danger Zone," saying it's an expensive way to own a bunch of bad stocks, and portfolio manager Bill Davis brings his brand of high-turnover ESG investing to the Money Life Market Call.
David Ellison, Portfolio Manager and Financial Services Specialist at the Hennessy Funds, says that the banking industry is coming out of "a two-to five year period of darkness," heading for "sunny days ahead," though he notes that banks do not want interest rates to fall too far but he thinks earnings can grow even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by another 1 percent or more. Ellison also notes that anticipated problems in commercial real estate — considered a real threat to the health of the banking system — aren't likely to materialize as a real threat now because the industry has spent the last two-plus years preparing for trouble. "It may be a drag here and there, but it won't be a blow-up problem," he says. Dana Staggs, President of Arrowmark Financial Corp., looks at a high-yielding alternative to standard banking plays, talking about how his closed-end fund relies on regulatory capital relief securities — esoteric investments that currently can generate yields of up to 15 percent — and that should hold up when rates get cut further in the coming year. Jason Brown of The Brown Report says that the stock market's technicals are showing him signs that a big downturn is in the offing, and Portfolio Manager Michael Roomberg of Miller/Howard Investments, talks energy stocks in the Market Call.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says that the start of a rate-cutting cycle is a time when investors will want low-cost active management — rather than an index fund — in the fixed-income space. To that end, he picks a T. Rowe Price fund that uses a quantitative management style as his ETF of the Week, noting it can do the job for investors looking to diversify their fixed-income holdings. Jessica Johnston, senior director for NCOA's Center for Economic Well-Being In the U.S., discusses a recent survey by the group which showed that 80 percent of older Americans face a real risk of financial insecurity, Chuck discusses what investors and savers are facing — regardless of which side wins the election — when it comes to decisions on tax legislation that expires in 2025, covering everything from tax rates and the standard deduction to the child tax credit,estate tax exemptions and much more. And in the Market Call, Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors discusses how she uses ETFs in pursuing core-and-explore investment strategy.
For about a decade, Chuck has offered the kids in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, to decide between a trade or a treat. It's part of his belief that even young kids are able to understand and make basic financial decisions, deciding if they would rather have candy or if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. He always encourages others to put their own stamp on the idea with kids in their neighborhood, but each year Chuck also tweaks the game, making subtle changes to keep things interesting for the kids (and himself). This year, he is making a change to the "lottery option" that might make it appear that the children have a better chance at winning big by going that route, but instead makes it so that the children would almost certainly be better off picking any choice but the lottery option. Phil Moeller, author of "Get What's Yours for Medicare: Maximize Your Coverage, Minimize Your Costs," discusses the daunting process that Americans face in trying to maximize their money and health-care coverage under the Medicare program; Moeller believes that the most valuable unread documents in America are Medicare enrollment documents. Plus Joe Schmitz Jr. of Peak Retirement Planning answers three questions from audience members all about converting traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs, and how to determine if paying taxes now is worth the ability to never pay taxes on the investments later.
Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, expects the Standard & Poor's 500 should hit 6,000 by mid-2025, but he acknowledges that those gains might surprise him by coming early, turning 2024 potentially into a "super year," which would turn 2025 into a less-stellar environment. Either way, he expects the market to take a brief breather before a potential rebound for the end of the year carrying the market into the new year. Matt Zajechowski, research analyst at Northstar Inbound, discusses a survey the group did for JeffBet on the most expensive concerts in terms of ticket price per minutes the act typically plays. Chuck answers a listener's question following up on a recent interview that looked at certificates of deposit rates and how investors might play CDs now that rate-cutting has started, and Paige Henderson, senior portfolio manager on the Resilient Global Equity team at Allspring Global Investments, talks about playing defense now, before the market makes conditions more tenuous.
Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says that the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve's rate cycle starts showing up, it will goose the economy and the stock market, and with the worst of the post-Covid struggles behind us, the "soft landing" most experts forecast is actually what we're experiencing now, and that better times — and continued strong corporate earnings — are ahead, without a big correction or downturn in the interim. Mian isn't the only one expressing bullish sentiment, as Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal checks in with the details of the latest AAII investor sentiment survey, which has shown particularly high levels of bullish sentiment for about two months now, but who notes that the market typically delivers unimpressive gains when emotions are running high. David Trainer of New Constructs re-affirms the past selection of Affirm Holdings in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent gains of about 70 percent have simply positioned it to take another big fall, as he believes investors have bought the hype and ignored the reality of the company's struggles to deliver real profits. Plus, Money Life introduces its latest sponsor, Monetary Metals; Saad Zein, chief portfolio officer for Monetary Metals, discusses how the company enables investors to earn interest on their gold and silver holdings — paid in precious metals — and how generating that income changes what many people consider the biggest weakness and turn-off to putting money into silver and gold.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says investors will have to pay the piper for the market's last two years of out-sized gains, and she thinks the music will start playing early in 2025. While she thinks the market will avoid a big recession and/or market crash — and in fact thinks the market will rebound quickly around the mid-year mark — she thinks earnings will slow, incomes may fall and the consumer will start to cut back after the holiday season, which will contribute to that period where the market cools. Plus, investors flooded into certificates of deposit as interest rates were spiking in 2022 and '23, and now those CDs are coming due and monies reinvested just as a rate-cutting cycle has started; John Blizzard, chief executive officer of CD Valet, discusses how CD investors should shop around and think about maturities, as they pursue the best deals still available for their safest assets. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses interval funds and digs into the data on four funds that put a unique spin on the structure to create interesting alternative opportunities for investors now.
Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, doesn't see a recession as imminent but he says a lot of the good news has already been priced into the stock market, which will lead to slower gains or sideways performance moving forward. Sargen says that market observers expecting a soft landing were thinking that situation would allow the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates; in a no-landing scenario, however, investors should not expect the rapid rate cuts or the big rally that typically comes with a rate-reduction cycle. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes Neuberger Berman Option Strategy his "ETF of the Week," discussing where this kind of alternative fund fits into an investor's portfolio, and in the Market Call, Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors mixes macro big-picture observations with the micro of solid fundamentals to identify interesting income-producing stocks.
Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that investors can't expect the stock market — after 20-plus percent gains in 2023 and this year — to roll along at that pace indefinitely, noting that record highs have stocks trading well above their normal range relative to earnings. If earnings normalize and growth slows a little bit, the economy can stay strong while the market goes through a long sideways or slightly down period, likely lasting for much of next year. He says in The Big Interview that kind of benign scenario is more likely than a hard landing or big market declines. Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's latest structured products, which are tied to the stock market, but which use options to virtually ensure that losses are impossible; he explains how they work and where they might fit into investment portfolios. Plus, with big Powerball and MegaMillions jackpots on the line this week, Matt Zajechowski discusses research he did for Lucky.me showing which states have produced the most big jackpot winners — and the states where no one has ever claimed the biggest prize — as well as which numbers have proven to be luckiest — and the least lucky — when it comes to grand prizes in the past.
Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that while it is always bullish to have the stock market in record-high range, the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and again this year are setting up a long period of digestion/sideways movement that may last for much of 2025. He sees the stock market with room to keep running for now, noting that he thinks the market can gain about 7 percent from current levels before resistance digs in. When that happens, he's not expecting any sort of sharp reversal or crash, just flat markets while the market adjusts. Brian Reisinger discusses his book,"Land Rich Cash Poor: My Family's Hope and the Untold History of the Disappearing American Farmer," and how the future of farming could play out at a time when demands for food are rising but the number of farms providing that food is shrinking. In the Market Call, Steven Grey of Grey Value Management discusses how he combines classic value investing with what he calls "valuation investing" to find situations in which significant mispricings become his future profits.
Tocqueville's Petrides: John Petrides, portfolio manager for Tocqueville Asset Management, says that while the market has gotten to all-time highs riding large-cap growth stocks for roughly seven years, there are undercurrents changing beneath the surface that will make diversification pay off in 2025. He notes that the market can go through a soft landing scenario while changing market leadership and he thinks the market can avoid a major downturn provided that inflation doesn't prove much stickier than expected and if earnings prove to be weaker than they currently appear. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, revisits Opendoor Technologies, which he says is no longer a zombie stock and worthy of being in the Danger Zone, although that doesn't mean the stock — now trading below two bucks a share after having been hammered while in the Danger Zone — is worth buying. Nick Pisano discusses a Clever Real Estate survey which showed that more than half of the Baby Boomers who currently owns a home expect to live in their house to the end, never selling it, although the study also shows most older homeowners being in line for big profits when they do sell. Silas Myers, portfolio manager and chief executive officer at Mar Vista Investment Partners, makes his debut in the Market Call discussing why he favors big-time compounders trading at good valuations.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, discusses his 2024 fourth-quarter economic outlook, which suggests that the recent rally can continue especially as the economy transitions into what he expects will be its first soft landing in more than three decades. Gruenwald says the economy has been "super-resilient," and he expects that to continue unless the strong labor market falters and cracks, and the bond market stops absorbing U.S. debt at low interest rates. Gruenwald also agrees with some of the observations made by economists who took part in the National Association for Business Economics September 2024 Outlook Survey, which economist Mervin Jebaraj discusses with Chuck. In The NAVigator segment, Sean Feeley of the U.S. high yield investment group at Barings, talks about the impact the rate-cutting cycle will have on high-yield/junk investment, and Elysabeth Alfano, chief executive officer at VegTech — which runs the VegTech Plant-based Innovation & Climate ETF — brings her unique perspective on companies with wide-moat sustainable business models to the Money Life Market Call.
Market strategist Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that conditions have changed to where investors will need "an entirely different portfolio ... and an entirely different investment philosophy" than you used in the last decade to be profitable in the next 10 years. He expects a rotation from growth stocks to value stocks, and says that industrials, materials and oil and gas companies will become a much bigger part of the market -- driving returns in the process -- in the next decade.Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a new actively managed fund from Vanguard for his ETF of the Week, Sharon Epperson, senior personal finance correspondent at CNBC discusses the network's recent study showing that nearly half of American workers are “cautiously optimistic” about their ability to meet their retirement goals, and economics professor David Soberman from the Rotman School of Business at the University of Toronto talks about the likely economic impacts created by the longshoremen's strike and when or if the shutdown of many U.S. ports will show up in higher prices and protracted inflation.
Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, says that the rally he expected for small-cap stocks when he last appeared on the show in January, finally arrived in the third quarter and the stock market is now rotating towards smaller companies, industrials and real estate investment trusts. Ewing says that he expects the stock market to have a "decent correction" near the end of the year, if only because the market has seldom been up this much after three quarters and most years with a similar gain have seen a downturn in the fourth quarter; while he thinks the market will quickly backstop a decline, he noted that investors may also want to lean into fixed income because bonds, historically, have outperformed equities in the first 12 months after the federal reserve starts a rate-cutting cycle. Nadia Vanderhall, chief executive at Brands + Bands Strategy Group, discusses her recent blog post on how consumers can use gift cards as a budgeting and money-management tool — and can be a valuable accessory for teaching kids about money — and Gil Baumgarten, founder and president of Segment Wealth Management talks ETFs and stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
Nicholas Brooks, head of economic and investment research at ICG, a global alternative asset manager, says "There's nothing out there that rings major alarm bells" signalling a big recession ahead. But while he expects a soft landing, he is watching what is driving inflation, noting that while headline inflation is down, services inflation remains high and wage growth has stayed strong, factors that are good from a household income point of view but that are concerning in terms of whether inflation might come back and hurt the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates. Josh Brown, chief executive officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, discusses his new book, "You Weren’t Supposed to See That," which digs into the genius and the foolishness of what the public gets from financial experts, advisers and the media. Plus, Ken Berman, strategist at Gorilla Trades, talks technicals and says the signs are all pointing to the idea that the current bull market has legs to run through the election and into 2025.
Nick Elfner, co-head of research at Breckinridge Capital Advisors, says that investment-grade corporate bonds are well positioned to be the strong fixed-income play now that the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates. Financial counselor Kristine Stevenson, author of "How to Avoid Trouble With the IRS," chats about how so many tax and financial issues are caused by a lack of the most-basic and simple planning, and notes that taking a few simple steps and applying common sense will keep most people away from the worst of financial issues. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs puts Targa Resources back in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock — which showed strong gains since it was labeled the company most likely to miss second-quarter earnings — is now the stock most likely to miss third-quarter earnings, and David Rosenstrock, director of investments and financial planning at Wharton Wealth Planning, makes his debut in the Market Call talking funds and ETFs.
Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar Inc., returns to the show — earlier this week she discussed her book "How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement" — to talk about how inflation, rate cuts and other current events are impacting retirement planning and asset allocation decisions. She notes that after two great years for the stock market, investors often struggle to make portfolios more appropriately conservative for their age. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses four funds to consider for what he sees ahead in the fourth quarter, and Kevin Simpson, co-founder/chief investment officer at Capital Wealth Planning, makes his debut in the Market Call, talking about great business models generation big free cash flow, and then protecting the portfolio using covered calls.
Phillip Wool, head of research at Rayliant Global Advisors, makes a strong case for investing in emerging markets — as well as for sticking with investments in China despite geopolitical risk there — noting that valuations are particularly compelling compared to a domestic stock market that is flirting with record highs. While Wool does not expect the U.S. economy to go through a hard landing, he notes that the domestic market is "pricing in a lot of good news right now," and in times when the Federal Reserve is easing into a soft landing, it typically leads to overperformance from emerging markets and international investments, which means investors are entering a time when diversification geographically should pay off.
Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a new small-cap fund that uses a covered-call strategy to protect against volatility and downside risk as his "ETF of the Week," Anthony Pompliano discusses "How to Live an Extraordinary Life," his book of 65 letters he has written to his young children, that put money, success and more into perspective amid the busy lives and hectic times all of us face today. Thad Davis, president and chief executive officer at Aureus Asset Management, talks high-quality compounders in the Money Life Market Call.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, expects continued bouts of volatility for the market for the rest of the year, spurred by uncertainty around the election and the Federal Reserve's moves, but he noted that when the central bank historically has cut rates when the stock market is near all-time highs, the market moved sharply up in the following 12 months. As a result, he is increasingly optimistic about the next two years, though he says investors may want to lean into areas of the market that have lagged behind in the market's recent run. Pollster Margie Omero discusses a recent AARP study of women voters above the age of 50 — the largest bloc of swing voters in the upcoming election — in which nearly two-thirds of respondents say the current economy isn’t working for them, and that they feel less financially secure than they expected to at this age. Plus, in the Market Call, David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds discusses using insider buying and selling as a signal of a stock's strength or weakness.
Amar Reganti, fixed income strategist at the Hartford Funds, says that the Federal Reserve normally starts cutting rates only when something has gone wrong, but there doesn't seem to be any portion of the U.S. economy that is so over-leveraged that it craters as/when a rate-hike cycle ends. If nothing surfaces, Reganti says this may be the generational anomaly where the central bank actually achieves a soft landing, conditions where the softening economy may go through a recession but without getting really ugly. Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that the market's technicals are all looking good, a sign that investors should keep riding this trend rather than worrying about backing away from it just because the market is in record-high territory. Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar Inc., discusses her new book, "How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement," and Craig Sarembock, wealth adviser at Bartlett Wealth Management, talks growing stocks trading at reasonable prices in the Market Call.
Longtime personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements — the editor at Humble Dollar, and former columnist at the Wall Street Journal — discusses how his outlook and feelings about money have mostly been reinforced since he was diagnosed in May with terminal lung cancer, and how he his focusing his time, money and energy now to make the most of his time and help his family make the most of his life savings. Clements says he is not bitter about spending a lifetime amassing retirement money for a retirement he won't get to experience, and discusses how even the best estate planning may be insufficient when it comes to helping the family move forward. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that the yield curve has uninverted with recent rate cuts, but the danger sign it was flashing remains bright because recessions never happened until the curve normalized. He questions whether the economy will be strong enough to justify double-digit earnings expectations for equities, which could lead to lower — and possibly more volatile — returns for stocks. Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs revisits three past Danger Zone picks, and kicks them out of the club, noting that conditions have changed to where the companies — while still not attractive enough to be considered buys — have changed enough that they no longer meet the Danger Zone standard for potential trouble ahead.
Nate Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management says he's not "banging the table to be significantly overweight" in the technology issues that have carried the stock market back to record high levels. He says investors should be looking at areas besides U.S. tech stocks — shifting into small-cap stocks, health-care companies, real estate investment trusts and more — to keep moving forward at a time when he sees real signs that the economy is slowing. Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Charles Schwab, is less worried about the market's ability to keep pushing forward led by the big names, noting that "We're at all-time highs for a reason," and saying the Standard and Poor's 500 index could reach 6,000 before the year is done. Miguel Laranjeiro, investment director at abrdn, sees rate cuts making muncipal bonds more attractive, which he says will trigger "the beginning of a robust in-flow cycle into the muni space." In the Market Call, Scott Rosenthal, portfolio manager for Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management, discusses worldwide value investing.
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp., says the big news on Wednesday was not that the Federal Reserve started a rate-cutting cycle, but that it appears that there could be additional, aggressive rate cuts that could take an additional 1.5 percentage points off rates over the next 15 months. That rate cutting, Fleming says, reduces the risk of a deep recession, and the strength of the labor market also limits the possibility of a big decline. As a result, a year from now he expects to see a "lower mortgage rate, lower cost-of-credit rate environment -- with a relatively healthy economy, if not running at trend -- and low inflation," which he says would be a return to "normal." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a fund saddled with keywords -- the WisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth Fund -- and tells us which of those traits are so important now that the fund deserves to be ETF of the Week. Plus, in the Market Call, Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, talks fair-value investing and gives his take on how stocks will respond to the rate-cut environment.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rate three times before the year ends — starting with a first cut being announced today — and says the central bank will drop rates by one full percentage point by the time 2025 rolls around. He talks about how and where consumers and investors will first feel the impact of the cuts, and how to make the most of the looming changes. Bart de Bruijn, founder of EstateX, talks about tokenized real estate investing, an emerging concept that allows investors to effectively buy shares in properties, which they can then trade on a public exchange. Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's latest iPhone survey, which showed — among a raft of counter-intuitive issues — that 90 percent of Americans think Apple's signature device is overpriced, but which two in five Americans would go into credit card debt to purchase anyway. Plus, Vince Lorusso, chief executive officer and portfolio manager for the Clough ETFs, discusses "valuation investing" in the Market Call.
Warren Pierson, co-chief investment officer at the Baird Funds, says that he expects the economy to keep chugging along, avoiding a deep recession as it enters a rate-cut cycle that initially trigger a rally but investors will not want to extend the duration of their holdings too long. Pierson notes that no matter who wins the White House in November, he expects tax hikes in order for the federal government to attack deficit problems, and he says the bond market — particularly the municipal bond market — is already anticipating that move, and is attractive as a pre-emptive move now. Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor helps Chuck answer a listener's question about college-savings plans and how to set money aside creatively and flexibly in case the children don't take the traditional college path when their time comes. In the Market Call, Bernie Horn, manager of the Polaris Global Value fund, talks about where in the world he is finding solid values now.
Joe Quinlan, head of market strategy for Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America, says that he expects the stock market to show better breadth in 2025, with other stocks picking up slack for the Magnificent Seven stocks, which he thinks will keep growing but at much slower rates. He notes that "the U.S. economy continues to defy expectations," and as long as that continues — and he is optimistic that it will, unabated by whatever happens in the presidential election — he will keep advising investors to buy the dips, favoring high-quality dividend payers. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts Sunrun back in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock has outperformed as a short since it was first singled out in 2022, but that a recent bounce-back has simply set it up for the next fall as the company runs out of money. Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital Corp. — one of the original Turtle Traders, a ground-breaking group of commodity traders from the 1980s — talks trend-focused investing in the Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about why shares in Trump Media and Communication stock were halted on Friday, and whether the move might have had political motivations.
Scott Martindale, chief executive officer at Sabrient Systems — which takes a quantitative approach to investments — says that some of the standard measures of inflation are skewed in ways that present an inaccurate picture of what's happening now. He discusses the "Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices" and how it, and several other measures, suggest that the Federal Reserve has plenty of room to make a larger rate cut now, and while he doesn't expect the central bank to take that drastic step, he expects that the rate-cut cycle will pick up speed after the first cut is made. Trader Edward Corona, publisher of The Options Oracle, says that the stock market that is flirting with record high levels is giving him a lot of technical opportunities to look at reversal plays, the kind that has punished Nvidia stock since a recent mediocre earnings report. Mitchel Penn, managing director of equity research at Oppenheimer and Co. looks at how business development companies are likely to perform in a falling-rate environment, and identifies a number of BDCs that historically have generated high returns on equity with low credit losses along the way. Plus, Scott Bennett, founder of Invest With Rules, brings his trend-following methodology to the Money Life Market Call.
Gargi Chaudhuri, Chief Investment and Portfolio Strategist, Americas, at BlackRock, says that while she foresees a slowdown in the economy but nothing that will rise to the level of a recession. Still, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting phase during the fall — a historically volatile time for the market — she expects that investors will see heightened market movement, and that they will need to be patient to ride out the bumps confidently. Chaudhuri expects the market to broaden out, and says "keep high quality, add some defense and look for continuing gains over a longer period of time." Another way to answer Chaudhuri's call for caution would be with a low-volatility fund, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , makes one his ETF of the Week. Chuck revisits his July decision to not get pet insurance in the wake of the injury his puppy Maho suffered in early August and the significant vet bills he has paid since. Plus Ivana Delevska, founder of SPEAR Invest — which runs the Spear Alpha ETF — talks about finding value in the industiral supply chain in the Market Call.
Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management says "we haven't seen this much geo-political static on the horizon in at least a generation," raising real concern about how a laundry list of global boiling points could hit home. He says those risks overhang a market that looks like it can avoid a downturn for a while with the Federal Reserve looking like it can deliver a soft landing. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies looks at the group's latest research into the state, outlook and retirement readiness of the American middle class and, in the Market Call, Manny Weintraub, principal at Cannell & Spears, talks about his unending search for "super great stocks that won't kill you."
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says that recessions haven't been canceled, but there is no reason to expect one for at least the next year, "especially if we get the Fed to start to meaningfully ease." She thinks the Federal Reserve will start that easing process later this month with a small rate cut, largely because anything larger might spook the market. Hooper says she thinks the Fed is late to begin the cuts, which is why making the move now and starting the rate-cutting cycle is important for staving off recession. Chip Lupo, writer and analyst at WalletHub discusses the site's recent study into the best places to retire, finding that four of the top five locales being in Florida, but the fifth in frigid Minnesota. He discusses the factors that will ultimately make some community best for you. Plus, market contrarian Hilary Kramer, who runs seven different investment newsletters, focused on everything from value investing to IPOs to trading and more, returns to the Market Call to talk stocks.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs — who put Nvidia stock in "The Danger Zone ahead of its earnings report at the end of August, just before the stock cratered — says that the market and economic conditions are changing and lower liquidity and a slowing economy "is a recipe for a major correction in a lot of individual stocks," and that companies with misleading earnings are particularly likely to be punished. That's why he put Dayforce in the Danger Zone, because it has "the most overstated earnings" in the Standard & Poor's 500. Trainer also reiterates his call on Nvidia, noting that despite the stock's recent drop, it has a lot more room to fall. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses how investors in closed-funds trading at premiums can use sector-swapping to turbocharge their gains, selling funds trading at premiums to buy similar funds currently at discounts, and provides examples of how this would pay off now. Andrew Leigh, author of “How Economics Explains the World: A Short History of Humanity,” discusses how almost everything — from climate change to the instrument a child plays — is impacted by economics and how economics can therefore be used for better decision-making. And in the Market Call, George Young, co-manager of the Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks about having the patience to let long-term plays on smaller companies pay off.
David Souccar, international equity portfolio manager at Vontobel Quality Growth, says that the interest-rate cutting cycle is going to help international equities, as foreign central banks follow the Federal Reserve's moves, which should help foster a softer landing worldwide. That said, Souccar notes that if the United States starts raising tariffs radically, it will hurt the dollar, which will make investors want to invest internationally to protect against the dollar's falling value against other currencies. Souccar notes that investors are likely to find the most opportunity in Europe — particularly in Great Britain — Canada and Japan. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a total-market fund that equal weights its holdings by sectors for his ETF of the Week, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, discusses their survey on how many parents give children access to credit cards and how often they regret that decision, and Kelley Wright, editor of Investment Quality Trends, brings his disciplined approach to value investing to the Market Call.
A funny thing happened on the way to today’s show. Okay, it’s not so funny since it basically canceled the show so take a quick listen to find out what happened.
David Goerz of @StrategicCAPM says the current market is putting a twist on Internet Bubble days, but that stock valuations are extremely high and so are most risk factors, so investors might want to hunker down and wait at least for rate-driven volatility to pass. Joel Dickson of Vanguard Group discusses how rules changes impacting the way investors must remove money from individual retirement accounts (IRAs) they inherit from loved ones should worry most people about how following conventional wisdom might be leading them right into a big tax bill that could be avoided with some extra planning. Plus, John Cabell of J.D. Power on the firm's look into just how satisfied US consumers are with their credit-card programs and the perks and minuses they get in exchange for their loyalty.
Michael Ball, president and lead portfolio manager at Weatherstone Capital Management, says that while the economy appears to be headed for a soft landing, that smooth ride and the first rate cuts have already been priced into the bond market, which means that bonds are not giving much cushion right now against any softness that could lead to a recession. He notes that higher quality bonds in floating-rate bank loans, short-term high yield and other niches are strong values in current conditions, especially when deriving income from sources like dividends is pricey, given stock market valuations. George Kinder, president, The Kinder Institute of Life Planning — a pioneer in the "life planning" realm of financial planning — discusses his latest project, a self-published book about achieving balance and happiness in life, called "The Three Domains of Freedom: Each Moment is Yours, Your Life is Yours, Civilization is Yours." Plus, Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, discusses tactically using ETFs in the Market Call.
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that money is rotating out of technology and "into pretty much every other sector," which means that participation in the current bull run is broadening out. Still, he says, there is a question of whether the upswing can continue if tech isn't participating. As a result, deKempenaer sees the market trading close to current resistance levels, and he worries there is more potential for the Standard & Poor's 500 to drop to 5,550. If that support level fails, de Kempenaer sees 5,120 -- a much steeper drop -- happening quickly. Alaina Anderson, co-portfolio manager of the William Blair International Leaders Fund, says that investors may find better opportunities and stability investing overseas, where valuations are particularly compelling. Shannon Martin, analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses her study on the hidden costs of car ownership, which showed that the average hidden expenses of owning a gas-powered vehicle in America add up to nearly $7,000 annually, and John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses how corporate actions in closed-end funds — tender offers, liquidations and transitions to open-end funds, rights offerings and big changes in dividend policy — historically play out and how investors can use those historic results as a guide on how to act if they see those actions in the funds they own.
Andrew Krei, co-chief investment officer of Crescent Grove Advisors, says that at some point next year we could see inflation tick back up, which could lead to market struggles, but right now barring "geopolitical mayhem," he sees the market as continuing to climb, and he notes that investors should be pressing their bets with equities rather than fixed income right now. Ironically, Krei discounts fixed income immediately after Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes an ultra-short bond fund his "ETF of the Week." Dan Skubiz, senior portfolio manager at F/m Investments, talks about small-cap stocks in the Market Call and
Greg McBride discusses a new Bankrate.com study showing that nearly three-quarters of Americans have financial regrets, mostly about not saving early enough for retirement or saving nearly enough to cover emergencies
Ryan Myers, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management -- manager of the Causeway International Small Cap fund -- says that current valuations "are on par with some historical extremes where small caps go on to outperform fairly significantly." He likes opportunities in Japan, particularly after market troubles there earlier in August made valuations even more appealing, but he also says there are bargains to be had in European financials and AI-adjacent companies in Taiwan and Korea and elsewhere. Financial adviser Mark Matson discusses his new book, "Experiencing the American Dream: How to Invest Your Time, Energy, and Money to Create an Extraordinary Life," and Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, digs into merit aid -- the focus of his new course aimed at parents trying to find ways to navigate college funding -- and how students can tap into it.
Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, says that while rate cuts tend to be good for the market, there is an unusual circumstance now where the cuts upend the Japanese yen carry trade. That created the market's short-lived August drawdown, but that circumstance could resurface; while the market has moved past that problem, Weniger notes that the Fed's expected actions in cutting rates are happening during a bull market run, which tends to be unusual, but which has to be taken as a bullish sign this time. Weniger notes that he particularly likes small caps and regional banks right now. In the "talking technicals" segment, Michael Sincere of Michael Sincere’s Long-Term Trader says investors should "be bullish, but be cautious," and talks about maintaining higher cash balances and using options strategies to protect against heightened volatility now. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., discusses investing in blue-chips, big, brand-name companies that are paying a growing dividend.
Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, expects a unique occurrence in Federal Reserve actions between now and election date, with inflation dropping down to its target rate of 2 percent while the labor market reaches equilibrium, with the unemployment rate hitting 4.5 percent. Rick says that good news -- which will be accompanied by rate cuts from the central bank -- will push any potential recession back into 2025 and possibly '26, with economic growth falling below 2 percent, under long-term norms but not so bad that the economy craters. David Trainer, founder and president, New Constructs, pulls a shocker in the "Danger Zone," saying that a member of the Magnificent Seven -- a stock with one of the largest market capitalizations in the world -- has run so far, so fast that it is overdue for a reset that could bring the stock down by more than 60 percent. Plus economist and author Rob Larson, discusses his new book, "Mastering the Universe: The Obscene Wealth of the Ruling Class, What They Do with Their Money, and Why You Should Hate Them Even More."
Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, says that he expects the economy to avoid a hard landing, and notes that some indicators would suggest that the economy is already in recession which means it will be over by late spring 2025, which should allow the earnings to start to pick up and fuel more growth next year. Johnson notes, further, that stock markets historically tend to perform well in the first six months after the start of a rate-cutting cycle; if the Federal Reserve starts rate cuts in September, which he expects, that means the market is well positioned to avoid any sort of hard landing as it rides through transitions in interest rates, the election and the economy. In The NAVigator segment, Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that private credit — which has been on the rise for several years — is being challenged by a cooling market for mergers and acquisition activity, but he expects a pickup as rates ease, making deals easier to do. Maury Fertig, chief investment officer at Relative Value Partners, talks closed-end funds — and surprises Chuck by discussing a fund that Chuck talked about on Thursday's show — in the Money Life Market Call.
Tim Crawmer, chief global credit strategist at Payden & Rygel, says that the rise in the unemployment has not been driven by layoffs but rather by more people looking for work, which is a positive sign for the economy. Coupled with other good looks -- like the continued strength of the consumer pushing robust GDP expectations -- it should convince individual investors to position their portfolio "with the expectation that they will see a soft landing." Still, Crawmer, notes that high valuations may limit the potential upside, putting just a bit of caution on the optimism. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also is focused on the strength of the consumer as he takes a consumer-spending fund as his ETF of the Week. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about dealing with a tender offer on a closed-end fund, and Raymond Bridges, portfolio manager for the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF, brings his "aggressively cautious" approach to the Market Call.
Elliot Rosenberg, founder of Hack My Honeymoon, talks about strategies consumers can take to use miles, points and more to get free trips, accommodations and more, and while the savings is real, some of the advice -- involving opening multiple credit-card accounts to capture bonuses -- is not standard for consumers. Marci Stewart, director of client education for Schwab Workplace Financial Services discusses the firm's annual 401(k) Participant Study, which showed that more than 40 percent of workers say they are very likely to achieve their retirement savings goals, up dramatically from a year ago, and a surprise given consumers' concerns over inflation and high interest rates. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about a perceived dislike of cryptocurrency, and we revisit a recent conversation with Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management.
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the stock market had priced in a soft landing before the recent, temporary spike in volatility, but that action made investors realize that the potential for a hard landing is on the rise, even with Federal Reserve rate cuts on the way. Either way, Kelly says the long-term trend for the market will be positive, but he cautions that where markets go up during soft landings, investors get punished by hard landings until the bottom is reached, so he suggested caution while watching the Fed try to pull off a perfect landing. Also cautious -- but based on the market's technicals, was Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, who said the early August blip was nothing more than a temporary move, what will ultimately be a forgettable day and he thinks the market is more likely to test resistance at roughly 5,700 on the Standard & Poor's 500 before it tests support, which he figures is roughly 5,380. Jonathan Lansner, financial columnist for the Orange County Register turns to the ways that Wall Street resolved and evolved after the ruling that allowed discount brokers as a possible guide for how real estate firms will adapt to rule changes aimed at re-shaping the landscape and process for home sales.
Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, says the economic data has lined up so that the economy "can cruise through this soft landing, and not land." In the Big Interview, Haworth says that recessions have been held off for longer than expected up to now, but while he could see heightened volatility for the market for the rest of the year or beyond, the glass-half-full economy means that recession is not likely in the next year and a half. Economists -- as measured by the August 2024 Economic Policy Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics -- seem to agree, though Lester Jones, chief economist, National Wholesale Beer Association and a member of NABE's survey committee, notes that the imbalance between loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy has economists worried about how things might turn after the election. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts Lyft back into The Danger Zone -- for the fourth time since 2019 -- noting that the stock still isn't worth $1 per share despite currently trading for more than 10 times that amount. Plus Steve Nicastro, managing editor at Clever Real Estate, discusses how changes in rules governing real estate commissions -- which went into effect over the weekend -- will play out for consumers.
Brij Khurana, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management, says that if either political party sweeps the election in November -- winning the presidency and control of Congress and the Senate -- the result will be higher bond yields, because the market will price in greater financing of deficits, but he notes that a divided government, the market will price in a bigger fiscal contraction regardless of who the president is, bringing yields down. Khurana says the Federal Reserve should already have been cutting interest rates but will start next month, although he is expecting a slow, methodical cutting process rather than knee-jerk cuts in response to any data changes. On the stock side of the investment world, Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group says that the volatility that surfaced early in August hasn't given him any reason to distrust the trend, which remains intact on a long-term basis and which he does not think will be broken despite heightened volatility between now and election day. Aaron Filbeck, managing director of the CAIA Association, discusses interval funds, their fee structure and potential and responds to a recent Wall Street Journal article on how their fees "will leave you high and dry." Plus, in the Market Call, Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management discusses small- and micro-cap investing.
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, digs into the site's latest credit-card debt survey, which says that half of American credit cardholders are now carrying debt month-to-month, up six percentage points from the start of the year and the higher level since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. 50% carry debt month to month. This figure is up 6 percentage points from January and is the highest figure seen since March 2020. Rossman discusses the current numbers for credit-card debt nationally, noting that while candidates have focused on the total of more than $1.4 trillion, the way the Federal Reserve calculates credit-card debt clearly includes a lot of consumers who are not financially challenged. With the likelihood of interest rate cuts coming as soon as next month, Todd Rosenbluth, the head of research at VettaFi, turns to the municipal bond space to pick his ETF of the Week; Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group, brings his style of "modern value investing" to the Market Call, and Chuck answers two questions from a listener who is primarily interested in how to take advantage of the start of the rate-cut cycle and recent declines in the price of most Magnificent Seven stocks.
Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, says the Federal Reserve has gotten inflation under control and is ready to start cutting, which will create an environment that favors stocks. That should make last week's sudden spike in volatility and nervousness a blip, likely forgotten quickly. Hayes talks about how the shift from rate hiking to rate cutting will impact investment strategy, noting that the improved environment for stocks should help broaden out the number of securities driving things higher. Susan Fahy, executive vice president at VantageScore discusses the firm's most recent CreditGauge, which shows the country is "reaching a potential turning point in consumer credit health." Plus, Glenn Tompkins, senior global market strategist at VectorVest talks in the market call about finding safe, undervalued stocks that are rising in price in a rising market.
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that the economic fundamentals haven't changed despite recent headlines and heightened market volatility, but she says the time has come for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge that the economy has slowed but that inflation will remain above the 2 percent target for a while. She notes that whoever wins the presidential election likely will be presiding over an economy in recession, though she expects it to be mild, but she does point out that there are potential issues that could make the troubles worse. Gregory Harmon, president of Dragonfly Capital Management, says the market's recent volatility spike was just a summer non-event, and that the real move was the expanded breadth the market saw in July; he expects that to return, potentially bringing the market back to new highs, as the market regains its footing. Sarah Foster discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey in which more than one-third of U.S. workers say they're living paycheck to paycheck, with little to no money left for savings after paying their monthly expenses. Plus, Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, discusses his recent piece on why — despite all of the technology updates around money and payments — paper checks just won't go away.
Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that growth stocks are unlikely to beat value in a higher inflationary environment with higher rates, creating a nice tailwind for value, particularly because he expects inflation and high interest rates to remain sticky. He expects a synchronized rate-easing cycle across the globe, which makes him interested in taking a longer-term look at cyclical areas like energy and industrials. Christine Kieffer, senior director of investor education at FINRA discusses the agency's recent alert warning investors of support-center scams, where investors looking for help from their brokerage or mutual fund company do a search for the firm's help desk and wind up being directed to fake sites where their money and/or data is ripped off. David Trainer of New Constructs puts BILL Holdings back in the Danger Zone, reaffirming the company's status as a zombie stock and a Danger Zone pick, noting that investors should not be fooled by revenue growth that still hasn't generated profits, and Mark Travis, president of Intrepid Capital Management, talks about companies that make beer, shoes and underwear — and sell at reasonable valuations — in the Money Life Market Call.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says that despite the recent fears over economic numbers that sent the stock market scrambling last year, the economy is now set up for "a softer soft landing," especially if the federal Reserve cuts rates by at least 0.75 percent by the end of the year. Phillip Carlsson-Szlezak, global chief economist at BCG, says there is "nothing in the numbers today that is consistent with recession," and he notes that the big sell-off at the start of the week did not signal any sort of change in the fundamentals; that's part of a broader discussion of his new book, "Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk," in which he says that current fears look most like a false alarm. Jim Welsh, author of “Macro Tides” and the “Weekly Technical Review,” expects the market to rally for one more new peak before trouble arrives; he notes that 2024 is part of a 17-year cycle of trouble that dates back to 1939, which he says is setting up a recession for 2025. Plus, in the NAVigator segment, Kimberly Flynn, managing director of alternative investments at XA Investments, discusses the state of interval funds and responds to a recent Wall Street Journal article critical of interval funds and their fee structure.
Andrew Foster, chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners, is seeing a recovery in earnings and fundamentals in emerging markets, and that means that current events are creating froth and noise but that emerging markets should deliver over the intermediate to long-term. Foster says that investors looking to make quick trades will get burned in emerging markets, but says that the earnings recovery is broad-based by both country and by sector, which is encouraging. Foster also gives his take on China, on whether international diversification will pay off better during times of great volatility and more. Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise Asset Management, checks in on how crypto currency — which was off more than 20 percent as the market was heading into Monday's 3 percent drawdown — has responded, and how investors should consider the volatility of crypto, particularly as they see it traded over the weekends, when most other assets are static. The market's big moves wiped out a few strong weeks for small-cap stocks, but that is one reason why Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, pickseda small-cap fund as his ETF of the Week. And in the Market Call, Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer at Essex Investment Management — manager of the 1290 Essex Small Cap Growth fund — goes into further detail on the current opportunities in small-company stocks.
Long-time personal-finance journalist John Waggoner says that investors who have been rooting for interest rate cuts and an end to inflation should be worrying about what they will have to go through to get there, because "The best cure for inflation is a recession," and while one is coming at some point, investors need to avoid being too scared during volatile times like now, when the economy is not recessionary. Also talking off the news, Odysseas Papadimitrou, chief executive officer at WalletHub.com discusses the site's "2024 Google Search Results Study," which evaluates whether Google is really returning the best, most relevant and useful results for users, and puts the results -- which show that most consumers are losing over $200 a year to the results of Google searches -- in the context of this week's headlines over antitrust charges leveled at Google. Plus, finance professor Meir Statman returns to the show to discuss his latest book, "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance,” and Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, brings his quant-active approach to the Market Call.
With the market melting down Monday and suffering its worst loss in over two years, Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that wary investors are justifiably nervous, but they shouldn't be distracted from their long-term goals, which means staying diversified and invested and looking for opportunities. Stone does warn that the well-publicized opportunities in artificial intelligence may be a bit overblown now; while he believes AI technology will reshape industry and deliver on its enormous potential, he thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself in terms of valuing AI plays. That sentiment is shared by hedge-fund manager Lukasz Tomicki, managing partner at LRT Capital Management, who says in the Market Call segment that he is avoiding most artificial intelligence plays now, noting that the AI "frenzy" has created unreasonable valuations and expectations. Plus, economist Paul Collier discusses his new book, “Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places,” which was released today and which questions traditional assumptions on how to improve economically struggling areas.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says the details of Friday's jobs report "were the unmistakable signs of a slowing economy," and while a slowdown was expected based on recent trends in the indicators, the latest numbers spooked the market into thinking "maybe this economy isn't as robust we thought, maybe it's slowing a little more than we thought." He notes that the conditions are still far from anything that could be described as awful — the payroll number was still positive — but now the market wants more data to see if the Federal Reserve will have to take more strident steps to avoid a hard landing. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts cloud software provider Five9 Inc. in The Danger Zone, noting that the company just made moves to raise cash and get it off the firm's "zombie stock list," but those moves make it more likely that the company is in a business spiral that it can't escape without changing its history of operating losses. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a woman who wants to know what to do now that her favorite department store credit cards are carrying interest rates of nearly 35 percent, and Peter Tuz, chief executive officer at Chase Investment Counsel — co-manager of the Chase Growth Fund — talks growth-at-a-reasonable-price investing in the Market Call.
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that since mid-July the market has been entering a "new market with a new theme and new leadership," rotating towards small-cap stocks and broadening out. Beyond small companies, Callahan's value-driven analysis currently favors dividend-paying stocks, gas utilities, life and health and property/casualty insurers too. In the NAVigator segment, Duncan Farley, portfolio manager on the Developed Markets Special Situations team at RBC BlueBay Asset Management — the manager of the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund — says "We're looking at a multi-year high in default rates" and discusses how that will change the credit markets. Plus, Patrick Healey, founder and president at Caliber Financial Partners, talks stock investing now in the Market Call.
Noah Wise, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments — in one of two interviews focused around Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement that rate cuts are nearly certain to start next month — says that the economic data has been so strong that it has become "a no-brainer" to cut, which is the ideal situation for making a move in a politically charged environment with a presidential election in sight. He expects the Fed to keep cutting so long as the data keeps moving in the right directions, which positions the current trend to carry well into 2025 without anything worse than a soft landing to disrupt the market. Also discussing the Fed's Wednesday announcement is Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management, who thinks that rate cuts will be a positive but that even if they extend into next year they won't be enough to stop a slow down in the U.S. economy, instead softening the blow of a downturn and blunting its impact when it finally hits. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes an international fund his ETf of the Week and Simon Lack of SL Advisors and the Pacer American Energy Independence ETF talks energy investing in the Market Call.
Geoff Dailey, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says in The Big Interview that he thinks "Any pullback should be bought" right now, noting that concerns over the economy, inflation, the strength of the consumer and more will add some volatility but are not likely to derail the market. Meanwhile, he notes that "small-caps in particular are poised for strong performance," noting that a huge valuation gap has emerged between those large-cap companies and the small-cap companies, probably the biggest discount we have seen going back to the financial crisis [of 2008]." He expects the market to broaden out and for small companies to benefit, though he also noted that he prefers large-cap U.S. multi-nationals to going after international investments, noting the market conditions are strong enough to keep domestic stocks ahead of foreign counterparts.
Also on the show, behavioral finance expert Meir Statman discusses the emotional issues that have investors ignoring strong economic numbers to see the problems and potential financial misery in their own lives, and Alex Gailey, analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses her research into "The Motherhood Penalty," which shows the price women pay for raising kids, amounting to 31 percent less than fathers in annual wages last year alone.
Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, says that while politics dominates the news, it shouldn't be creeping into investors' portfolio moves, as available research shows that market results have proven to be better by riding the market regardless of the party that holds the White House than by trying to strategize around the results of a vote. Fridson also discusses how the current rally in artificial intelligence is reminiscent of the Internet Bubble Days, in that a lot of companies are now benefitting from the market's perception that all AI is good, but that it will soon figure out that many companies getting a boost from the trend aren't the true beneficiaries from it.
Ming Jong Tey, principal trainer at Trade Precise, says the market is at an inflection point, moving away from the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq 100 into the small-cap space, and he sees the Russell 2000 currently on a run that shoul;d push it to where it soon challenges previous record highs.
Plus Sarah Holden discusses research from the Investment Company Institute on how fund fees have dropped dramatically over the last 20 years, and how as a result of fee shrinkage. In the Market Call, Howard Chan of Kurv Investment Management — which last week opened the new Kurv Technology Titans Select ETF — talks about using options strategy to benefit from sideways markets and avoid pain during big downturns.
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus - Mellon, says investors should "Never count out recessions," but he notes that the chances of one happening amid current economic strength are low, less than the 15 percent of the time that recessions normally happen. Moreover, he notes that recessions now and in the future may not look the way recessions did before the turn of the century. New York Times columnist Peter Goodman discusses his new book, "How The World Ran Out of Everything," Bryce Colburn of USA Today Blueprint talks about a recent survey on the "junk fees" that Americans hate the most and, in The Danger Zone, Kyle Guske of New Constructs revisits retailer Wayfair, a zombie stock that may have what shoppers need but which should have investors shopping for alternatives unless they're shopping for a total loss.
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that while the stock market has been moving to record highs, "it wasn't healthy." He says that market valuations are overblown, with concentration in the index being more of a concern than at any time in history, which means that current conditions are lining up with some rare time periods, most notably the tech bubble days of the late 1990s, which ended turning ugly when the bubble burst. That's in contrast with the view from Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research, who says the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 60,000 and the Standard & Poor's 500 will hit 8,000 before the end of the current decade, and while that run could end up ugly at that point, any downturns in the interim are buying opportunities. Plus, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — provides an update on what's happened with closed-end funds through the first half of 2024, and Jaime Dunaway-Seale discusses Clever Real Estate's Gen Z Home Buyer Report, which showed that 60 percent of the generation just entering the workforces thinks they will never own a home.
Eric Crittenden, chief investment officer at Standpoint Asset Management, says the market has weakened to where there are no "great, super-strong trends out there," but he thinks the market is entering a transition period where new trends will start and emerge. That transition may not include a recession, Crittenden says, because "the algebra says to me that it's going to be hard to have a recession," due to the government actions that have staved it off and made it hard to forecast what's next. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes with something new as his ETF of the Week focuses on one of the nine new Ethereum funds that debuted earlier this week. Chip Lupo discusses the 2024 Money and Relationships Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly 40 percent of Americans have a financial account that their partner doesn’t know about. In the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses "beat and replace" investing.
Jeffrey Hirsch, chief executive at Hirsch Holdings and editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac — which tracks stock market performance relative to presidential terms and election cycles — says that while the upcoming election is no longer a battle between two second-term presidents, the potential election of a first-term president in Kamala Harris would not result in much change for the market. While first-term presidents historically hit the ground running and make some of their most drastic moves early, Hirsch says Wall Street is prepared to adjust, which leaves him more concerned with how the market will perform late in the term — in 2026 — than he is concerned with what happens close to the election. Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring and Rozencwajg — which specializes in investing in natural resources commodities — discusses the recent rally in natural gas and makes the unusual case for it as a play that's adjacent to the artificial intelligence boom. And speaking of "AI-adjacent" investment potential, that's exactly one of the things currently appealing to Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, who talks about it among his stock ideas in the Money Life Market Call.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation for SLC Investments, says investors are "pretty risk-on," meaning they expect the economy is headed to an environment where rates will settle down at reasonable levels and consumers will keep spending, creating a sound environment for investors. That extends to Europe and some international markets, which will help balance a portfolio that may be impacted by a downturn late in the year, but Mullarkey says any downturn is likely to be a buying opportunity because current conditions can't keep the market down for long. That general market optimism through volatility and a correction is shared by Michele Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com, who expects heightened volatility but who sees the market likely being higher at the end of the year, with 6,000 — up about 8 percent from current levels on the Standard & Poor's 500 — being a level the market will challenge. Plus, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners talks stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that stock market valuations are extended to the point where "things need to be nearly perfect to justify those valuation levels." He is finding much better valuations internationally, noting that "Non-U.S. equity markets are cheap relative to the U.S. by an amount we have never seen before," which is why he is suggesting investors start nibbling and dollar-cost averaging into foreign markets now. Doll also reviews his annual list of 10 forecasts for the calendar year and sizes up where his forecasts stand after the mid-year point of the 2024. Doll says the economy is slowing and he expects that to show up in a market downturn before year's end. Michael Urich, chief economist at Seventh Point Analytic Consulting, discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey from the National Association for Business Economics -- released today -- which shows that a record number of respondents reported that their firms had raised prices in the last three months, but fewer respondents reported higher sales and profits, a dichotomy that suggests there might be some economic trouble ahead. Plus, Kyle Guske, analyst at New Constructs, puts a mutual fund in the Danger Zone.
Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that the economy is showing signs of slowing in some ways, while still having some measures being strong, and a lot of it is determined by consumers where the division between the haves and have-nots are growing, and where current conditions hurt people with less money dramatically more than the wealthy. Green says people are confusing the stock market's run to record highs as strength for the economy, which he says is misplaced, but which he says has handcuffed the Federal Reserve on rate cuts because it's hard to say that moves are needed when markets are peaking. In the Talking Technicals segment, Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says he'll stay bullish despite expecting a 3 to 5 percent correction now and a 5 to 10 percent dip closer to the election; he's optimistic because "strength begets strength," and a strong first half of the year bodes well for gains in the second half, as does increasing breadth supporting an uptrend. Plus, Jason Akus, head of healthcare investing at abrdn — manager of the firm's four closed-end funds covering healthcare — gives his current take on the healthcare and biotech space, noting that the sectors last rallied around the vaccine makers during the pandemic but they are now showing signs of the next big rally, and Rachel Perez discusses research from Preply showing which side gigs provide the best wages and most job stability.
Peter Repetto, vice president of investment strategy at iCapital, says that while rate cuts historically are good for markets — gaining roughly 9 percent in the year after cuts start historically — they do struggle if cuts are made during times of recession or downturn. Repetto expects a soft landing and moderate downturn, which is setting up for reasonably well for "rate-cut beneficiary" businesses moving forward. Repetto notes that markets also tend to gain in the 12 months after a presidential cycle, saying they tend to gain about 15 percent on average regardless of which party wins control of the White House, which should create a good market for the market if the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates amid a mild slowdown. Ahead of the expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve that is increasingly considered likely for September, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the granddaddy of actively managed bond funds for his "ETF of the Week," Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses a new survey showing how Americans feel their personal finances are being influenced by the current presidential candidates, and what they expect for the future depending on who wins in November, and Chuck answers a listener's question about diversifying a portfolio and how many investments to hold.
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says that as long as the economy "keeps humming along" and meets high expectations for earnings growth and stable balance sheets, the current rally should keep rolling. When that trend breaks, however, the market and economy could turn quickly; St. Aubin sees "some cracks starting to form" with consumers and with some of the economic data, and while a soft landing is possible, any problems are likely to get more painful. Also on the show, Jason Chepenik of OneDigital Retirement + Wealth discusses the firm's 2024 Employee Value Perception Study, which looks at the disconnect between what employers think workers want beyond compensation, and what workers actually are looking for from their employers. Plus, Andrew Graham, founder and portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, gives his take on the current market in the Market Call.
Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says that the market is in the early stages of an impressive bull market, noting that the current rally is now about 20 months old and that the market has dramatic gains since hitting lows in October 2022, but she notes that the average bull market runs longer and gains more and there's still plenty of room for that. She says "We're feeling great about this market. We love it from a fundamental standpoint ... and on a technical basis because the trend continues to be up as well." While she does see the potential for a correction, she says the outlook for the rest of the year is strong. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent study on side hustles, which found that 36% of American adults have a side hustle, with the average side hustler now making $891 per month. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about when to get travel insurance and when to leave home without it.
Michael Mullaney, Director of Global Markets Research at Boston Partners, says that the stock market is trading far enough above moving averages that it's due for a correction on the short term. As that pullback happens, he expects the Federal Reserve to kick in with rate cuts beginning in September, driven more by the jobs report than inflation numbers, but he notes that may not have more than a short-term stimulative effect. Mullaney says that while the broad economy may be able to put off any sort of landing until next year, the bottom quintile of consumers is already living through a recession, which is creating some of the disconnect between solid economic fundamentals but weak consumer sentimentals. Also on the show, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says Targa Resources is the stock "most likely to miss earnings," which is why it's in The Danger Zone now, plus Brian Glenn, chief investment officer at Premier Path Wealth Partners discusses both ETFs and stocks in the Market Call.
Jerremy Newsome, founder of Real Life Trading, says that with the election looming after the traditional summer-fall doldrums — and having already hit his profit targets for the year — he is about to move 100 percent into cash. "I think it's too easy right now," he says. "We're too high, it's too easy, everything is going straight up ... no reason not to be all up in cash up here for me." Newsome was clear that he's selling into strength and locking in profits, because he does think the market will be going higher once there is more certainty after the election; he expects to have at least half of his money back into stocks by the end of the year. Mark Gatto, co-founder and co-chief executive officer at CION Investment Group — which runs CION Investment Corp., a business-development company — discusses the heavy interest and cash-flow into BDCs and how that is changing the space and making it important for investors and advisers to "pull back the layers to understand what they are investing in," paying particular attention to the deals and credit quality a BDC gets involved in. Plus, Christopher P. Davis of Hudson Value Partners gives his take on value investing, — which mixes in more macro factors than the traditional bottoms-up value manager — in the Money Life Market Call.
Tim Urbanowicz, head of investment strategy and research for the Innovator ETFs, says that the current bull market run has the stock market hitting new highs roughly every four days, which is fast compared even to the Internet bubble days, and while investors are nervous that things must take a turn, he points out that hitting all-time highs has never been a catalyst for a sell-off, and isn't likely to be one now. That makes it crucial for investors to manage risk and balance their fear of loss against their fear of missing out. Innovator makes products that create that balance using options strategies to define potential outcomes and to make returns more certain or that at least remove some of the market's unknowns. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, uses recent political changes in England as a motivator for his pick as the "ETF of the Week," discussing the additional risks an investor takes by investing in a single-country fund. And deep-value investor Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, talks in the Market Call about why this is "one of the most attractive times to find opportunities" that he has seen in the last two decades.
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says the economic cycle is now in its last stages, and while there may be a blow-off top before trouble is here, he expects a recession and he will not be surprised if it occurs after the Federa;l Reserve cuts interest rates. While many observers expect cuts to help markets, Schutte says that the Fed has never been able to take an overheated economy and cool it without triggering a recession. He added that the last four recessions all occurred shortly after rate cuts. In the Market Call, Ira Rothberg, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Focus Fund, discusses buying great companies at modest discounts, with the courage to hold them for years waiting for the payoff. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question on deciding whether pet insurance is a good idea for a new puppy.
Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says the market needs to "digest its gains," which he expects to turn into a "low teens selloff," but that will be a bull market correction and not a catastrophic event like the 2008 financial crisis. Stovall expects the Federal Reserve to make cuts starting in September, but he notes that the central bank is going to wait until it absolutely must make a move rather than making any change simply because the market is anticipating one, and he notes that could portend trouble because the Fed has historically waited too long before acting. Also on the show -- and agreeing with the idea that the market is strong but due for a selloff is Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, and the founder of TheQuantGuy.com. He says the market is driven by "the 4 N’s," which involve a market that is numb to all news, neutralized against all volatility, that has normalized inflation and momentum trading and that has "negated all valuation." That has set up a market that can keep going despite an economy that is slowing. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's 2024 Credit Card Debt Survey, which showed that credit-card balances are on the rise and that nearly half of Americans are still paying down the credit card bills they ran up last summer, which does not bode well for how things will look for their credit when Labor Day rolls around.
David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, was still in a festive Fourth of July mood, so instead of going to his usual spot in "The Danger Zone," he picked a quality, classic American business as a potential buy, singling out HF Sinclair, the oil company, for "The Attractive Zone." Between consistent growth in its dividend and stock buy-backs, Trainer says HF Sinclair could have a potential yield of 10 percent or more. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com weighs in on Friday's jobs report and what some weakness in those numbers suggests for when the Federal Reserve will decide it's time to cut interest rates. William Vanderbloemen, founder and chief executive officer at Vanderbloemen Search Group, discusses the skills and traits that workers will want to bring to the job in a world where artificial intelligence is expected to take over a lot of tasks. In the Money Life Market Call, Rob Isbitts, co-founder and chief investment strategist at Sungarden Investment Publishing, talks about YARP, his "Yield at a Reasonable Price" strategy.
Nikolaj Schmid, chief international economist at T. Rowe Price, says he's expecting a correction soon "but it's not going to be something too deep or too dark or too scary," noting that the economic backdrop remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve can likely finish the year with just one rate cut. Schmid discusses T. Rowe's 2024 Mid-Year Outlook, and notes that he is concerned that with foreign central banks already having cut rates, the Fed's timing is now more critical because it does not want its monetary policy to be too far out of sync with the rest of the world. John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors compares two high-yielding offerings from Ares, showing that while both could be viable and attractive options for diversifying a portfolio into the alternative credit space, there's much more to making an investment decision than a big yield. Plus, Karen Brown, a reporter at New England Public Media and the host of "The Secrets We Keep" podcast talks about financial secret-keeping, particularly around the salaries we make and what ending the secrecy might mean for individuals and for society.
David Lubchenco, partner at Chautauqua Capital Management, says that the underperformance of foreign stocks for several years has been so extreme that relative valuations look good and international stocks are poised for a strong run whenever the market's next cycle begins. Lubchenco says that when there is a concentrated market like what investors have seen during the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks, it portends change ahead, which makes this a good time for investors to make sure they take a diversified approach now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, equates quality with greatness so he's celebrating the July 4 holiday by picking a quality-focused fund as his ETF of the Week. In the Market Call, Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad’s Utility Investor and The REIT Sheet talks about income and dividend investing.
Xander Gray, founder and chief executive officer at XG Capital Strategies, says that a bear market is coming, with a number of potential catalysts contributing to trigger the downturn. He says that while he expects a downturn of up to 30 percent, he does not expect it to take long. Further Gray says that for investors who have not been buying now likely want to wait until next year, with the market around record highs but likely to have at least a minor blow-off before the real bear market shows up. Jeff Clark, head of defined contribution research at Vanguard talks about “How America Saves,” the company's annual look at the behaviors of more than five million retirement-plan investors, which showed that savers were setting aside money at a record pace, and that average amounts that workers are putting into savings are on the rise. Plus, Elizabeth MacBride, co-author of "The Little Book of Robo Investing: How to Make Money While You Sleep" discusses the pros and cons of using robo advice platforms as compared to human financial advisers, plus Chuck answers a listener's question comparing the returns on gold to those of the stock market and suggesting that investors should want to hold more of the metal.
Jeff Timlin, head of municipal strategies at Sage Advisory Services, says that potential problems surfacing in the California and New York municipal bond markets are telegraphing "an economic slowdown nationally," but that investors should not worry about a significant increase in defaults, and should instead find munis becoming increasingly attractive once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts electric-vehicle maker Nio back into The Danger Zone, noting that while the stock's price has cratered, it can't even justify its current price in the range of five bucks per share. Divya Sangameshwar discusses a ValuePenguin.com study showing that the average American household will spend roughly $1,730 this year on their pets. Plus, Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, discusses growth at a reasonable prices in the Money Life Market Call.
D.R. Barton Jr., Director of Market Research at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says the longest cycles suggest that the market is topping out now, but 'near-term overbought doesn't bother me right now.' He is expecting more upside into the election and carrying into 2025 before any downturn is more dramatic than a simple buying opportunity. He says that he doesn't expect much downside risk until or unless the Standard & Poor's 500 falls below the 5,300 level; meanwhile the market is telling him that money keeps flowing in and can sustain the rally longer. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, returns from a recent industry conference that was focused on business-development companies and he gives his takeaways from the event, including how BDCs compare to private credits, how the market is changing and how some money managers are using artificial intelligence to get better information on the market trends that should help them pick better investments or to have better timing on the trades they make and more. Plus, Julie Guntrip, head of financial wellness at Jenius Bank, explores 'The Mind-Money Connection,' a study that looks at how managing money can make you happier or more stressed out. In the Market Call, Lance Cannon, portfolio manager at Hood River Capital Management, returns to discuss growth-centered small-cap investing.
Matt Gertken, chief strategist for global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research, says investors should be factoring in geopolitics and the upcoming U.S. election now, because current uncertainty could cause a downturn "soon, at any time." But once the election is sorted out, whoever wins — and no matter the policies they pursue — is facing the inevitabilities of the economic cycle. Gertken is clear that he doesn't see the kind of economic imbalances that would cause a market cataclysm akin to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, but troubles in China over politics there — plus deflation and a troubled housing market — could drag the U.S. and other international economies into a bigger tailspin. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the infrastructure space with his ETF of the Week, and Indrani De, global head of investment research for FTSE Russell discusses the upcoming Russell Reconstitution — the exercise of changing benchmark indexes to avoid surprises — and what the current effort (which becomes final on Friday) reveals about the stock market and the breadth of growth now.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management thinks the current protracted economic cycle "will end the same way that almost every cycle has," with high interest rates triggering trouble before rate cuts and a downturn that resets the market and repositions it for growth. Roland is hopeful the economy can avoid a hard landing — and she notes that heightened government spending that has helped the current economy could keep it going longer — but says she is watching for when initial jobless claims start to rise, because that will be the signal to get defensive, and while she says it could happen soon, it could extend as far out as 2026. Justin Conway, vice president of investment partnerships at Calvert Impact talks about Community Investment Notes — and specifically the new Cut Carbon Notes — as a way of diversifying income while supporting underserved communities. Cassandra Happe discusses WalletHub's 2024 Credit Card Rewards Survey, which showed that more than 60 percent of Americans think that card bonuses encourage overspending, but where nearly 4 in 5 respondents said that higher inflation has made them more interested in earning credit-card rewards. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about the impact and benefits of diversifying into a fund that owns popular stocks when you already hold those companies through index funds.
Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, expects the market to start a new leg up and rally, but he notes that it has to go through a shake up and get to where rate cuts start before that uptick starts in earnest. Ladner notes he is "a whole lot more confident about the next six months than the next six weeks," noting that current conditions — with steady or falling interest rates and growth in earnings — "doesn't translate into bad markets." While those conditions don't always portend bull markets, those conditions do tend to drive markets higher. Jeffrey DeMaso, editor at The Independent Vanguard Adviser, discusses Vanguard PRIMECAP and PRIMECAP Core, two classic growth funds that were closed to new investors for 20 and 15 years respectively; Vanguard just re-opened the funds and DeMaso discusses who they are right for. Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the site's latest Emergency Savings Report, which showed that nearly 60 percent of Americans are uncomfortable with their level of emergency savings. Plus, in the Market Call, Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products at AAII talks about buying growth stocks now.
Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says the market will take a break of as much as 10 percent, and he is looking for that kind of setback before getting back to being fully invested. That said, he expects the economy to pivot out of slowdown mode and "into a more sustainable growth path, but probably not until later this year or early in 2025." David Trainer, founder/president of New Constructs, puts a popular consumer name into the Danger Zone, Jeff Lambert of Tiicker — a service that helps companies reward investors for participating in proxy votes — discusses the firm's recent survey which shows that more than three-quarters of investors might pay attention to and actually vote their proxies if there was a tangible benefit to getting it done. Plus, in the Market Call, Ed Shill, managing director at the Wealth Enhancement Group talks about how investors should go looking for individual stocks at times like now when the market is "overbought," and among his surprising picks for these times is troubled airplane maker Boeing, which he describes as an enormous bargain as it tries to regain lift after recent operational troubles.
Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says that summers tend to be more volatile and while the market has been up seven of the last eight summers, those gains have had to overcome significant drawdowns, and he thinks that pattern will repeat with an "overbought" market now. Adam still expects two rate cuts, which should avert a recession, although the economy will likely struggle and will be setting up a rougher year in 2025. Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, discusses the benefits and flaws of applying rules-based investing to closed-end funds, noting that changes in the industry have forced changes on a rules-based index of the closed-end fund space that was created by VettaFi, and how that is impacting the holdings and asset allocation for investors choosing to use fund-of-funds rather than to build their own portfolio of individual closed-end issues. Rachel Perez discusses a study done for Preply.com which showed that financial management is one of the three areas where Americans most wish they could develop more personal discipline, and Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, brings his "five lens approach to stock research' to the Market Call.
Howard Yaruss, professor at New York University and author of "Understandable Economics,” says the Federal Reserve should "consider a small rate cut, as soon as possible," in part because the central bank has done a good job — as measured by certain inflation measures — in at least coming close to its target levels, but also because other central bankers around the globe have started to cut, and there could be some issues arising if U.S. monetary policy is out of sync with the rest of the world. Yaruss sees the economy mostly avoiding significant recession and downturn until at least 2025. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes out the risk scale by picking a fund that targets junkier junk bonds as his "ETF of the Week," Cassandra Happe talks about the latest survey from WalletHub which showed that commuters and long drivers are more upset with inflation than consumers with large families and bigger grocery bills, who are more focused on rising food prices, plus Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Dedicated value investor John Buckingham, editor of The Prudent Speculator and principal portfolio manager at Kovitz Investment Group, says that the long run of the Magnificent Seven has not made it impossible for value investors to hold some of them, noting that while the very hottest don't meet the definition of value, other tech giants like Alphabet and Meta Platforms are trading at levels that shouldn't scare the bargain hunters away. He discusses his buying and trimming strategy in the Market Call. Ebony Reed and Louise Story, co-authors of "Fifteen Cents on the Dollar: How Americans Made the Black-White Wealth Gap" discuss how Americans view wealth — and often confuse it for income — and how that it will take well over a century, barring legislative progress, to make any significant progress that levels the wealth field for all Americans. Plus, Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning at Charles Schwab discusses the firm's eighth annual Modern Wealth Survey, which showed that More than 60% of Americans feel they are in a better position to achieve their financial goals than the generations that came before them.
When Chuck turned 62 last week, he became eligible to claim Social Security benefits, and while he always expected to wait as long as possible before collecting, his own health history, his recent marriage and the passing of some friends of similar ages prompted him to revisit the entire Social Security claiming decision, because deciding when to claim benefits — and how much to let them grow or how to handle them if you take them early — may be the single most important financial decision most Americans ever make, with their financial well-being for the rest of their lives at stake. Nathaniel Popper, author of "The Trolls of Wall Street: How the Outcasts and Insurgents Are Hacking The Markets," discusses his new book and how the traders of meme stocks and the denizens of message boards have gotten better and smarter and have been learning from their mistakes in ways that older generations never really did, and how investing is a different game to the many young people who are getting into it earlier than ever before. Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs flips things around this week, and puts a brand-name investment bank into the "Attractive Zone," noting that while many companies overstate earnings, this one has gone the other way, making it a bargain now.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that as the market settles into long-term grown and moderating inflation, it's a good environment for financial markets to broaden out, where he expects more normal relationships between domestic and international stocks and large-company and small-cap stocks. "The market is never about seven stocks or 10 stocks," Sanchez says, which is "a healthy reminder as we look ahead to make sure your portfolio is diversified ... and not to get too narrow." Speaking of diversification, in the Market Call, Kevin Rendino, chief executive officer at 180 Degree Capital talks about investing in micro-cap and small-cap stocks through the lens of an activist investor. And speaking of activist investors, The NAVigator segment features Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services — who follows what he calls a "discount-capture" investment style in closed-end funds — discussing the moves that fund companies have made to enhance yields, narrow discounts and discourage activist investors, and describes them all as neutral or positive for investors, so long as they understand the impacts on income streams and total return.
Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn, says that "this obsession with Fed policy is misplaced," noting that government spending has helped prop up the economy and hidden weakness in the economy. He's concerned about "overall slippage" in the economy; as an investor who factors the news into his investment choices, McIntyre is staying away from retailers and most financial names, but is gravitating toward utilities and energy producers, as well as companies that are part of the artificial intelligence space without necessarily being the big players. Speaking of the Fed, JoAnne Bianco, investment strategist at BondBloxx, says that she sees real resilience in the U.S. economy, which is why it has rolled along while market expectations moved from multiple rate cuts this year to where it now expects just a single rate reduction. In this environment -- where Bianco is not expecting a significant uptick in defaults caused by high rates -- she likes credit the most among fixed-income opportunities. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi picks a hedged-equity fund investing in Japan as his ETF of the Week.
Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade corporate bonds at Payden & Rygel, says that companies prepared for the high-interest rate environment in advance, in ways that have allowed the bond market to avoid the rise in defaults that typically hits during rate hikes, but that also contributed to stronger economic growth, which has allowed inflation to be sticky without a lot of pain to the economy. It's part of why the inverted yield curve hasn't indicated a recession yet, and Trevithick thinks the Fed should be able to pull off a soft landing for the economy if it starts cutting late this year or potentially in 2025. Cassandra Happe discusses WalletHub's just-released 2024 Social Media Shopping Survey, which found that most consumers say social media is contributing to their bad spending habits and mistakes. JoAnne Feeney, partner and portfolio manager at Advisors Capital Management, brings her top-down approach to the Market Call.
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs, says that he has no problem with higher-than-planned inflation levels so long as nominal economic growth is there. "Investors don't really profit off of Federal Reserve changes," he says, "they profit off of growth in the economy, and that's what we should be focused on." Gene Peroni, founder of Peroni Portfolio Advisors, says that "The market is sensing something quite significantly positive on the horizon, based on its trends." He expects economic strength and rising earnings to keep growing for roughly nine months or more, and says that downturns and setbacks will remain buying opportunities for now. Plus, Sam Burns, chief strategist at Mill Street Research, brings his earnings-expectation driven style of investing to the Market Call.
Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners, says that the U.S. economy remains strong, there are some headwinds facing the stock market and that investors should go back to basics — diversifying across borders and industries and looking for investments they will hold long-term. Mills made it clear that he's optimistic for the long term, noting that investors are more likely to be thrown off by the problems that are not yet obvious — "It's not the monster in the closet that gets you," he says, "it's the one under the bed that you're not paying attention to that is going to get you" — so they need to have a time horizon that looks beyond those issues. Ed Slott, the founder of IRAhelp.com, returns to the show to discuss his new book, out this week, “The Retirement Savings Time Bomb Ticks Louder,” suggesting that converting traditional retirement accounts to tax-free Roth accounts is going to be worth it for most investors, noting that paying the taxes now is a form of insurance against Congress changing laws and raising taxes in the future. Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, talks about "overstated street earnings," and shows why the stock price of NRG Energy is dangerous relative to the real value of the company.
Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF, says there's "a lot of stock in a lot of weak hands," which tends to lead to a serious correction, and he says the market is due for a 15 to 25 percent pullback. Further, he notes that bear market corrections tend to "be more significant" in a high-rate market like the one being faced today; Lamensdorf notes that while the market is near record highs and has gone up sharply this year, so too has his bear-market fund, highlighting just how thin the bullish sentiment and market breadth are. Lamensdorf says that investing in the Magnificent Seven stocks has been great stock picking in a market that has not favored stock pickers, highlighting that this "is a great long-short stock-picking environment right now." Dave Lamb, head of closed-end funds at Nuveen, says there is a "much more aggressive form of activism today than what we saw years ago," driven mostly by discount-arbitrage opportunities rather than any evaluation of a fund's management. He discusses what fund sponsors, including Nuveen, are doing to make closed-end funds more attractive to the public, but less appealing to activist shareholders. Plus Daniel Dusina, chief investment officer at Blue Chip Partners in Michigan, discusses "underappreciated quality stocks" in the Market Call.
Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses a just-released survey which shows that Americans are getting fed up with being asked to leave a tip at everything from a self-service checkout counter to a pick-your-own strawberry farm. The survey showed that nearly 3 in 5 American adults have at least one negative view of tipping, with a surprising number being upset enough that they have stopped tipping even at sit-down restaurants. Bruce Kahn, lead portfolio manager at Shelton Sustainable Equity Fund discusses how ESG investing has moved past simple screening techniques, but for all the good of sustainability it still boils down to valuations. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes small-cap with his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers a question from a listener who wants to know if the long-time favorite investment of her father is something she should hold onto now that she has inherited it.
Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, says that the Federal Reserve should be cutting rates now rather than waiting, so the central bank will be deserving of the blame if we get a recession in 2025. Jones worries that central bankers have become "too spooked by inflation," and says they should be less cautious and more forward-looking, and that kind of action could be reflected in one or two rate cuts before the end of the year. Historian William Hogeland discusses his new book, "The Hamilton Scheme: An Epic Tale of Money and Power in the American Founding," and brings modern context to Alexander Hamilton by noting whether either major political party -- as well as the wildly popular Broadway play -- actually reflect the historical measure of the man. Plus, Andrew Guillette, vice president of global insights at Broadridge Financial Solutions, discusses the firm's massive research study into the investing habits of 40 million U.S. retail individual investors, with the trends showing that individual stocks have become increasingly popular while traditional mutual funds have permanently fallen out of favor.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, sees storm clouds on the horizon for the market and the economy, but his outlook remains benign, suggesting that a well-diversified portfolio will withstand heightened volatility for the remainder over the year. He says we have experienced a muted, rolling downturn and doesn't see a full-blown recession happening. By comparison, Avi Gilburt, founder of the Elliott Wave Trader, entered the year calling for the market to reach record highs no later than the second quarter — which it has — but then to turn into the start of a full-blown bear market that will last years and bring the Standard & Poor's 500 down by well over 50 percent. Gilburt says that the market remains on track for that. In the middle of that kind of disagreement, it's hard for investors to know what to do, and Andy Reed, head of investor behavior research at Vanguard, discusses research into certain biases that are leading most investors to make mistakes that result in diminished gains and missed opportunities.
Joe Boyle, fixed income asset specialist for the Hartford Funds, says that the re-set in fixed-income after rates popped up in 2022 and 2023 have made it unimportant to bond investors whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates any time soon, because the yields should remain strong. That said, Boyle said he was looking further out the yield curve — especially is it looks likely to normalize after two years of being inverted — because adding longer, high-quality bonds will pay off when the rate environment changes. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, put EventBrite — a stock that had been in the Danger Zone right after it went public in 2018 — back into the Danger Zone now, Jaime Dunaway-Seale discusses a Clever Real Estate survey showing that nearly half of all recent homebuyers say they feel over their head financially having made the purchase, and Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Barrack Yard Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders’ Almanac — chief investment officer at Hirsch Holdings — says that calendar effects and seasonal sell signals may be indicating that it's time to "sell in May and go away," but he says long-term investors have plenty of reason to remain bullish enough thanks to election effects and more that investors "have no need to go away," so long as they can put up with the market's increased chop over the summer. Hirsch noted that the election effects suggest that the market will benefit from having a second-term president — regardless of who wins in November — but that there tends to be weakness in the first two years of any lame-duck president, which means he may take a more cautionary stance once the election passes in November. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — talks about the good and bad in recent industry trends that have fund sponsors taking steps to keep a lid on discounts and to reduce a fund's potential attractiveness to activist investors, as well as the trend towards managed payouts and how investors should size up distributions that might be connected more to marketing materials than to what a fund actually can deliver. In the Market Call, Tom Plumb, president and chief investment officer at the Plumb Funds, covers growth stocks with disruptive technologies and business plans.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, is doubling down on a forecast he made before 2024 started, in which he said the outcome of the year for the market and economy was not "all about the Fed." He says the Federal Reserve's grip on the economy has eased, largely because the long end of the yield curve is free from the tight grip of the Federal Reserve. With the long end of the yield curve driving equity prices, Hyman thinks the market can find more room to run, and that's what he is expecting, although he does think there is an economic downturn with a soft landing in our near future. Hyman notes that valuations remain difficult, though he explains how using equal-weighted funds should pay off a little better moving forward. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns towards an all-purpose commodity fund for his "ETF of the Week," Cassandra Happe, an analyst at WalletHub, discusses how consumers expect to use credit cards to pay for their summer travel and how they can help themselves with the right credit-card deal. And in the Market Call, Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund talks about absolute value investing at a point when the market is near record highs.
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects consumers to keep spending and to help power the economy through at least the end of the year without a recession, but he notes that if the Federal Reserve ultimately decides that it's going to 2 percent inflation or bust, there will be a bust for the consumer and the economy, with the current party ending in a potentially protracted period of struggles. Jack Nelson, portfolio manager of the global emerging markets sustainability strategy at Stewart Investors, says that while many investors are avoiding China, it's important to not be so fearful as to miss out on the opportunity that a number of companies there represent, due to valuations that are more compelling in much hotter markets like India. Sarah Foster, analyst at Bankrate.com discusses the site's latest survey showling that while nearly nine of 10 Americans know what financial success looks like in their life, only one in four think they will achieve it. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about whether it's time to convert traditional long-term retirement savings into Roth IRA accounts.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, notes that the economic news and growth remain so strong that "the odds of recession are quite low."Detrick notes that 10 of 11 sectors in the Standard & Poor's 500 are higher year-to-date, which is why his firm is overweight in equities generally, and has been adding to financials and industrials in particular. Detrick says there are several disconnects between hard and soft data -- soft data shows low consumer confidence but hard data shows strong retail sales -- and he is trusting the hard data to see the economy continue to broaden out for the remainder of the year. Also on the show, Chuck explains how the new securities settlement standard of "T+1" will affect individual investors, and while he explains that the changes are minimal and won't be noticed by a lot of everyday investors, he also lays out that virtually every stock, bond and ETF trade moving forward will be impacted by the new rules. Plus, in the Market Call, long-time CNBC contributor Ron Insana, the chief executive officer at iFi AI, showcases his platform's technology, which brings together artificial intelligence and stock market data to decide which securities are likely to go on big runs in the next week, month and year.
Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull, says that the market is showing signs of topping out, though he thinks that the building downturn now will likely be short and not too steep before a rally again chases record highs. Bishop notes that "all of the bears have been destroyed," so there are few investors betting against the market, which is typically a sign that trouble is ahead. Bishop notes that those bearish investors were tired of their losses, and that betting against the market now would be risky, but he says there is more downside risk than potential upside right now. Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that as the market adjusts to the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts as long as possible, it will set up the market for a better second half of the year. Stephen Minar, head of closed-end funds at BlackRock, discusses how discounts drive money flows into closed-end funds, but they also attract activist investors whose actions may be harmful to others. BlackRock has created some initiatives to fight back, reducing discounts but hoping to increase a closed-end fund's consistency. And in the Market Call, David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel returns, and is the only guest who tackles the ticker list by simply addressing the first five names on it.
Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Wealth Management, says that while the economy has been stronger than investors expected entering the year — and isn't likely to have a sudden reversal — investors need to heed the warning signs and balance optimism with caution, remaining properly diversified. He notes that some international markets are particularly well-positioned right now in terms of valuations compared to domestic equities, particularly in hot industries like artificial intelligence, where the bargains are more with global stocks. Vanneman also likes real assets and discusses the importance of adding alternatives to generate both returns and stability. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, talks about adding international bonds to the portfolio mix with his pick for the ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about properly selecting bonds and bond funds for a retirement portfolio, and Les Rubin of Main Street Economics discusses his new book, “Why You Should Give A Damn About Economics: The US Debt and Your Future.”
Gina Sanchez, chief market strategist at Lido Advisors, says that the stock market is changing its mind so fast that every month investors have a new focus. She notes that the market has gone from favoring value to growth to defensive growth and kept rotating to where it is now back to growth, but she says that can't continue for long because the current level of "productive inflation" will stop working, leading to a slower economy in the second half of the year. While she doesn't expect a hard landing — and in fact expects a long, slow period of sluggishness — it will create volatility and conditions that favor quality, profitability and cash flow. Jennifer White discusses the latest J.D. Power research on consumer financial health, which showed modest improvement despite headline issues over inflation, although there is some concern that it's still a small group of consumers claiming improving circumstances. Plus, Kevin Walkush, portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, talks about quality growth stocks — with an eye towards the artificial intelligence companies that deserve the "quality" label — in the Market Call, and Chuck tells the story of Bitcoin Pizza Day, and what happened to the guys who in 2010 exchanged two pizzas valued at roughly $25 for a little more than $40 in bitcoin, which today is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — digs into his research on just how much election results actually matter for the market, and Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, talks in the Market Call about investing in disruptive stocks.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says investors need to be watching for issues like liquidity being pulled from the system and credit spreads widening and other signs that there may be trouble ahead. He says the market -- as witnessed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 last Friday -- remains driven by momentum and investor behavior and fear of missing out, but once there are strong signs that conditions are faltering and momentum is slowing, there will be a downturn, with a slowdown starting later this year though it may not turn into a full recession until 2025. Ted Benna, recognized as "The father of the 401k," discusses America's retirement and savings crisis and details what he calls the "Wheat Grain Incentive Plan," that would revolutionize the way millions of Americans build savings, plus Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts payment-technology company Marqeta (ticker MQ) in the Danger Zone.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that gold historically has a quick bounce after the first cut in a rate-cutting cycle, and he expects to see that gain in gold stocks — a fast uptick and then strong results lasting at least a year — whenever the Federal Reserve moves next. Winmill says that the market can keep climbing the wall of worry for a little while, but he expects struggles once current momentum fades. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the technical indicators are suggesting that the Standard and Poor's 500 can hit 5,600 by the mid-fall, though he warns that there may be a setback all the way down to 4,800 once the uptrend ends. Charles Lewis Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management, says that the big discounts investors have seen in closed-end funds will continue, and he likes real estate and term funds as great values for investors to consider now. In the Market Call, Christopher Sargent, portfolio manager at Bradley, Foster & Sargent, makes his debut talking stocks.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that a no-landing situation for the economy will create problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to hitting inflation targets, and for consumers who are renting, buying cars and more. Thomas noted that the current two-speed economy features a large group of consumers and businesses that have been less interest-rate sensitive and who have benefitted from current conditions, while a smaller group is struggling with high rates, as shown by higher delinquency rates and trouble signs. Thomas says that if the Fed can't get inflation down, the central banker will probably continue its course "until they break something." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a fund tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 — layered with a covered-call strategy to generate income — his pick for ETF of the Week, and Loreen Gilbert, chief executive officer at WealthWise Financial Services, talks stocks during her maiden voyage in the Market Call.
Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says the current market conditions have made him "much more prone to let my winners run," and that investors should not take a market pushing to all-time highs as some sort of sell signal because in most times -- including today -- new highs are a positive, even if they inspire some nervousness and fear of new heights. Tilson says that investors should focus less on headlines and more on what drives markets, namely a strong economy and growing corporate profits. Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study -- done in honor of Mental Health Awareness Month -- which found that nearly half of American adults say money at least occasionally has a negative impact on their mental health. In the Money Life Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund discusses stocks.
Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says talk of stagflation and other potential economic woes is overblown, and that the economic data suggests that the economy will overcome the short-term headline distractions to perform reasonably well, even if consumers and investors feel dissatisfied living through periods of higher inflation and lower investment returns. He says the profitability and performance of companies are broadening, and that's happening right now, which should make investors bullish. Also looking at recent market highs as a good sign is Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, who thinks the market will go higher and get through some minor corrections this year, but who sees technical indicators signalling much more significant trouble coming next year and beyond. Plus, research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a study on which cars convey the most "status" to their buyers, and whether there is any real value -- rather than just higher insurance bills -- that comes from the status given those fancy cars.
Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, says investors have pushed the Federal Reserve into a box, to where central bankers will now be cutting rates into an environment of rising unemployment and slowing gross domestic product growth. Historically, he notes, the stock market fears those conditions rather than rewarding it, which means the market will be sorting out that problem through higher volatility while it waits for more certainty from the economy. VanCronkhite says investors should build protection into their portfolios by owning businesses with great balance sheets, moving away from the Magnificent 7 stocks -- which he says will stop moving as a group -- to take advantage of the economic strength that should result in better long-term results once the market digests the Fed's eventual moves sometime in 2025. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisists DoorDash in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent rally is the market betting that it can get better financing and last longer, even though he believes the company remains a zombie stock that will run out of cash in two years time. In the Market Call, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks about his approach to this market, which is heavy on technicals and using stops to buy issues where the trend is turning while getting out of stocks that are moving against the tide.
Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that the market has reached a "Maalox Moment," where investors want to be invested but are nervous about the potential for a big drop, and they have to be willing to ride out their choices or they should be taking the safe alternatives of higher yields in fixed income. Stringfellow says that classic buy-and-hold investors need to be more active to feel comfortable today, noting "Just sit back and relax doesn't count." Buck Klintworth, senior portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market's technical indicators are not showing "the major shift that scares investors" in the cards for the rest of this year; Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, says homeowners "did a really good job of locking in low mortgage rates when they were low, and of locking in low fixed rates," which made them the big winners of the rising rate environment, which has created opportunities for bond and mortgage investors now. Plus, financial adviser Mike Salierno discusses the latest data released in Northwestern Mutual's 2024 Planning & Progress Study, which shows that Americans now believe they'll need $1.46 million to retire.
Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute — says that America's fiscal and monetary policies are sending mixed signals, "driving our car hitting the gas and the brakes at the same time." Fiscally, it's the gas, as shown by economic numbers, but the Federal Reserve is hitting the brakes, which makes it hard to figure out what's next, contributing to recent market whipsaw moves. Dover says current conditions suggest that investors should get out of cash and into assets that will do well when the market declines, because he expects a mild downturn and soft market at least until there is more certainty on direction. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi looks at a trendy new actively managed core bond fund for his "ETF of the Week," noting that he thinks that active management for fixed income makes sense in today's interest rate environment, noting that managers can flex into different bond types to make the most of current conditions. In the Market Call, Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, makes his debut, talking individual stocks.
Mike Thompson, portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, sees heightened volatility ahead for the market, but says that recent concerns on big-picture items have seemed to ebb, giving the stock market room to run here. In the Big Interview, Thompson explains his firm's "risk-responsive investing" approach and the tactics it is drawn to in current economic and market conditions. Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA, brings his firm's forward-looking, short-term ratings system to the Market Call, and Chuck takes on the latest statements from best-selling author and perma-bear Robert Kiyosaki, who over the weekend was saying that the new crash has begun and gave suggestions -- that Chuck disagrees with -- on how to profit from the massive downturn he is expecting.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that she sees the stock market grinding higher through heightened volatility for the rest of the year as the Federal Reserve pushes rate cuts out to December or into 2025. Still, she expects "another shoe to fall" with the economy and the market, though that trouble likely is coming next year or beyond. By comparison, Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, sees the market retesting record high levels in fairly short order, but he worries that the longer-term technical indicators suggest "a rocky two, three, four years" ahead, though he remains positive that equities will be up a decade from now, so that long-term investors should remain in the market through the trouble ahead. Plus, in the Market Call, Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group — publishers of the No-Load Fund*X — talks about riding the wave of what has been winning, and discusses how the winners and losers appear ready to hold their positions for a while longer before conditions change.
Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says we are seeing a tug of war between the forces lifting the economy -- powered by excitement over artificial intelligence -- facing the stubbornness of inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone rate cuts as long as possible, weakening the market. Kourkafas says he prefers the strong economy over rate cuts because it builds a strong foundation for corporate profits, which ultimately will drive markets higher, overcoming the short-term impact inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are having on the market now. Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner -- long-time columnist at USA Today and most recently financial editor at AARP -- talks about his recent decision to retire, mostly, and what went into making it and what he learned from working with seniors facing the end of their working lives. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits Express, which has gone from bad to worse since it was a Danger Zone pick a few years ago, having recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Trainer doesn't see the company being saved in the court, expecting it to complete the journey to zero.
Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "structured protection ETFs," in which a fund owner gets exposure to a market index but gives up some upside potential in exchange for protection against losses. The funds sound like a substitute for stocks but, akin to equity index products and other financial hybrids built to avoid losses, are a more suitable substitute for bank savings accounts and other cash investments. Kaufman says the products are a reflection of the times, where many investors are tired of the volatility and nervous for the future and want some assurance that they will not lose money in the market. Also on the show, Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- which runs the Private Shares Fund -- discusses how late-stage private venture companies are a real opportunity now, coming off of two years in which private shares have struggled and the market for taking those companies public has been sluggish. He also discusses Destiny Tech 100, an exchange-traded closed-end portfolio that has been trading like a meme stock, with massive gains -- but also nose-bleed falls -- since its debut in March. Plus, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses ETFs in the Market Call.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the Channel Capital Research Institute -- author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" -- says that Jerome Powell is currently trying to live "the financial version of the Hippocratic oath, which says 'First, do no harm.'" Roberts says that Powell is trying to adjust expectations gradually, which is why Wednesday's statement from the Fed boss was benign, trying to play both sides, setting expectations at one rate cut this year but with the potential to avoid that if the data doesn't demand it. In the ETF of the Week interview, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, takes a young, small fund that has struggled out of the gate -- X-trackers US Green infrastructure Select Equity -- and makes the case for making it a long-term holding and, in the Market Call, Stephen Dodson of The Bretton Fund talks about how his style of business value investing works in current market conditions.
John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that there will not be a recession -- or anything resembling it -- this year, but he makes it clear the can't be said for 2025, once the election cycle and concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and inflation staying around longer play out. Blank says he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be pressured into making rate cuts, but notes that it could make a cut in the fall leading into the election if the data suggests one is appropriate, but he doesn't see the central bank moving off of its plan to get inflation back to the 2 percent level. When that plays out in that recession that's coming for next year, Blank says it could help to minimize the duration of the downturn. Also on the show, Adam Ruben, vice president of the Economic Security Project, discusses the group's survey of consumers using the IRS Direct File pilot program, noting that the new filing methods drew a lot of consumer interest but also a lot of praise by the 140,000-plus taxpayers who used the system across 12 states. He expects the IRS to dramatically expand the program in the near future, given the strength of the results this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management talks growth stocks.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that the years after peak inflation and peak tightening tend to be good for markets, and he expects that to continue with a market and economy that he thinks can avoid big downturns. Levitt says the economy never got the recession many people expected because the economy didn't have a lot of excesses to create bubbles or big issues, but also because trouble came in spots, rolling into one area without taking over the whole landscape. As a result, Levitt's major guideposts for recession haven't been flashing warning signs, though he acknowledges that the next six months will likely rise and fall almost entirely based on the actions of the Federal Reserve and how the market responds to them. Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says he expects the market to recapture the record highs it was at earlier this year, with a year-end target of 5400 for the Standard & Poor's 500. Plus Ken Laudan, portfolio manager, Buffalo Large Cap Growth Fund discusses innovative, high-quality, durable large-cap growth companies in the Market Call.
Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an inverse relation where rates staying high would be bad for equities, while rate cuts would be a big plus. Also on the show: Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association, discusses the Beer Purchasers' Index reaching its highest levels since 2021, portending a strong summer not only for beer drinkers but for the economy; David Trainer of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund into the Danger Zone, and Mac Sykes, portfolio manager for Gabelli, talks financial stocks in the Market Call.
Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official government levels when looked at in more updated, modern ways to evaluate consumer prices, noting that shelter costs are dramatically overstated in traditional measures, skewing the numbers. All of this creates a positive long-term outlook, Schwartz said. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market's technical picture suggests a downturn in the offing, but likely nothing beyond a 5 percent decline before the market resumes pursuit of record highs. Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn says that record discount levels for municipal bond closed-end funds, coupled with attractive yields on those funds, are creating real opportunities for income investors. In the Market Call, Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks about putting a social investment lens over a market view to select stocks.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate and force the Federal Reserve to increase rates, conditions should remain benign and comfortable for investors. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) his pick for "ETF of the Week," and in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund, talks about finding the right forward-looking opportunities in markets now.
Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for the Baird Strategic Municipal Bond fund, says that investors should take the Federal Reserve at its word, expecting interest rates to have peaked, anticipate a cut but don't expect it to happen until the numbers warrant it. That may not happen until late in the year or into 2025. Meanwhile, he notes investors are getting strong returns -- particularly in muni bond funds where there are additional tax benefits from investing -- though not getting paid to take on extra credit risk, even though defaults and delinquencies haven't gone up dramatically with rates staying higher for longer. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that Americans aren't just planning to go far and wide this summer, they're planning to go into debt to get there; Chuck goes "Off The News" with the Department of Labor's release of new fiduciary guidelines for investment managers, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds talks small-cap technology in the Market Call.
Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager on the global, international and emerging markets small-cap teams at Seven Canyons Advisors, says that "near-shoring" or "China plus one" supply-chain diversification will "be the dominant force in international markets over the next decade." Kutusov says that geopolitical pressure and rising labor costs have pushed companies out of China or made them open additional capabilities elsewhere, most notably in India and Mexico. Plus, international interest rates are higher than in the U.S., leaving places like India, Mexico and Indonesia with economies that have room to ease rates and accelerate future growth. Also on the show, R. Jisung Park, whose new book "Slow Burn: The Hidden Costs of a Warming World" digs into the economic impacts of global warming events, plus we revisit a recent chat on the market's technicals with Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but no more than twice this year and in September at the earliest, and he says it's increasingly likely the moves won't start until 2025. The amazing thing, Wren says, is that the stock market got to where it was flirting with record highs despite investors adjusting from six projected cuts this year down to potentially none. He says market valuations are high and he expects them to give in to economic pressures to move lower, but long-term he's positive on equities, liking industrials, health care and energy stocks while trimming technology and communication services, the big winners from 2023. David Trainer, president at New Constructs revisits pet-insurance company Trupanion, a Zombie stock that he says may be worth shorting as its business model is flawed and unlikely to be turned around. Plus, Larry Swedroe, chief research officer at Buckingham Wealth Partners, discusses his new book, "Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing."
Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that two wars have had less impact on markets that many observers have expected because the market has recognized that geopolitical events require a direct tie to earnings before they can truly dampen gains. Because of that -- but also because of issues he sees with the domestic economy -- Papic says investors who are giving up on international markets and getting their diversification by overweighting U.S. multinational stocks are making a mistake. In a wide-ranging interview, Papic notes that he expects to be bullish right up to Election Day in November, but the results of the vote -- particularly if they give either presidential candidate the control of Congress to boot -- could have broad and dramatic impacts on the market in 2025 and beyond. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors reviews the first quarter results for closed-end funds, interval funds and business-development companies, noting that it was a strong period with more than 90 percent of closed-end issues making money in the first three months of 2024, although municipal bond funds continued their lagging ways. Plus, Chuck gets to talk about his childhood fantasy car with University of Toronto professor Dimitry Anastakis, whose new book is "Dream Car: Malcolm Bricklin’s Fantastic SV1 and the End of Industrial Modernity."
David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large Cap and Small Cap Financials funds, says that investors should not expect the classic thinking of lower rates equals higher margins and bank stocks go up, because the math may not work that way this time, which is why he is hoping rates stay where they are for longer. Ellison says that the Federal Reserve should wait until something about the economy breaks if it wants to help the banking sector, which needs to go through its classic cycles, which have been stunted by Fed actions over the last few years. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also weighs in on the financial services and banking sector, but in his case it's by turning to an insurance fund as his pick for ETF of the Week. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of the Independent Vanguard Adviser, discusses not only his manager-centric fund-selection style but also his recent foray into -- and now out of -- bitcoin.
Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors, says he's not particularly worried about what two current wars and other issues are doing to the economy ad stock market now, but that his real worry is federal policies in terms of fiscal expenditures. "To me, that doesn't look sustainable, and that looks more like an emerging market than, basically, the leader of the free world." He says most of the conditions are in place in the U.S. for an inflationary medium-term outlook, though he does think that the U.S. market should be able to avoid a depression after the current concerns get sorted out, but that conditions will feel like the 1970s, a period of high inflation and economic difficulty. Also on the show, Nick Young, chief experience officer at Money Pickle, talks about the question that savers should be asking their advisers regularly that most ignore, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the troubles that consumers have encountered as they have increasingly gravitated towards using "Buy Now, Pay Later" programs. In the Market Call, Joe Rinaldi, president/chief financial officer of Quantum Financial Advisors, covers both stocks and exchange-traded funds.
Dan Zanger, founder and chief technical analyst at ChartPattern.com, says that he has followed the leaders out of the market, noting that the artificial-intelligence companies that had led the market's rally to new highs have now gone into consolidations and he's content to accept money-market returns until the market changes its tune and the charts stop suggesting that they want to go lower. Also on the show, Herb Greenberg -- longtime journalist and financial analyst -- talks about his new firm, WallStreetBeats.com and the twist it is putting on traditional institutional research, as well as why he's not just starting a new business in his 70s but never planning to retire, and why others might want to plan a "retirement" that includes some work. Plus, Craig Martin discusses the 2024 U.S. Full-Service Investor Satisfaction Study from J.D. Power, which showed that people using financial advisers are happier than ever with their results but they're not loyal to their advisers, which may mean that when the market moves away from recent highs they could move on from their counselors.
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says the economy is resilient enough to handle current levels of interest rates, and that better economic growth will allow earnings to drive the stock market higher even as anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are put off until 2025. Yardeni says he expects the rest of this decade to resemble the Roaring 20s, without irrational exuberance but also without the Great Depression to follow as it did a hundred years ago. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer at New Constructs calls shenanigans on Root Inc., noting that price targets on the stock have been raised by over 500 percent, but profitability forecasts have not been going up, suggesting the stock is due for a hard fall after its recent big bounce up. In the Market Call, James Abate of Centre Asset Management -- manager of the Centre American Select Equity fund -- talks
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that the current issues keeping inflation high are about supply-side economics and are the kinds of problems that the Federal Reserve can't just fix by cutting interest rates. So while he sees the Fed as having pulled off the soft landing earlier this year, it can't "save us" this time, although he says the strong economy should ensure that the cycle should play out without a crash or catastrophe.
Ann Somers Hogg, director for health care research for the Clayton Christensen Institute, discusses her work showing that caregivers -- particularly working mothers -- are suffering through mental health issues impacted largely by society not understanding the issues they are facing. As a result, she notes that if health is wealth, working moms are living in extreme poverty.
Plus Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says the uptick in inflation is not enough to overwhelm the yields investors are earning, noting that real returns may be better than ever. He says investors should enjoy collecting the high yields while interest rates remain high, but total returns should improve once cuts start. Doty is not expecting meaningful rate cuts this year -- he anticipates two reductions, one after the election -- but says that the long-term average gap between the Fed funds rate and inflation is well above its typical zero, so the central bank can cut rates and have a positive gap, meaning it can claim to be tough even as reductions start. Doty anticipates the important cuts -- the ones which narrow that gap back to near zero -- will occur in 2025.
With Wednesday's release of the latest Consumer Price Index numbers shaking the market's confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, Chuck gets the latest take from Christian Chan, chief investment officer at AssetMark, and Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist at BlackRock. Both see the Fed as acting, though Chan expects the central bankers to wait longer until conditions almost force a move; Chaudhuri still sees cuts later in the year, though she says a June cut may now be off the table. One area where they disagree is that Chan doesn't like the value investors are getting in intermediate-term fixed income, while Chaudhuri says that investors should be looking for intermediate-term fixed income and lengthen maturities now ahead of rate cuts later. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a senior bank loan fund as his ETF of the Week and, in the Market Call, Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services -- editor at The DRIP Investor newsletter -- brings his firm's Quadrix system to the fore, noting the sectors that score particularly well now and the areas where the system struggles to find buys.
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that inflation staying stubbornly above the target of the Federal Reserve -- despite the central bank's moves that have raised interest rates to 20-year highs -- has created the kind of market conditions in which gold, historically, has thrived. He does not think gold's success is necessarily due to its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, because that requires inflation sustained at levels above 5 percent, but it is other dynamics like geopolitical risk and two ongoing wars that are combining with inflation to drive gold now. Also on the show, Cam Miller of Money Pickle talks about how market highs have shown that consumers are happy with their financial advisers, but how consumers haven't developed loyalty to advisers, a sign that they might bail out and reduce the effectiveness of financial planning if/when market conditions turn. Matt Brannon discusses the "True Cost of Homeownership" study from Clever Real Estate, which showed that a surprising number of Americans find themse3lves house poor and having regrets about the properties they own, and Emerson Ham III, senior partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors, makes his debut in the Market Call talking stocks, traditional mutual funds and ETFs.
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research, says the bullish sentiment and investor optimism should lift the commodities market and help the market rally keep rolling, though he says investors should be worried that conditions are taking a turn for the worse when more stocks are making new lows rather than new highs or the Standard & Poor's 500 falls below its long-term average. He says the Federal Reserve may decide not to cut rates until those conditions appear, noting that the central bank won't want to act earlier than conditions force it to. Also on the show, Howard Dvorkin, chief executive at Debt.com, goes Off The News discussing how Fed data showing higher delinquency rates and rising charge-off data are supported at the grass-roots consumer level, noting his site's most recent credit-card survey, which showed that more than one-third of Americans have maxed out their credit cards in recent years as inflation and interest rates were rising. Cassandra Happe, analyst at WalletHub.com, on the site's survey showing that consumers say they are fed up paying credit-card transaction fees, though they are not taking many steps to actually avoid them. Plus Chuck answers two listener questions on subjects that the writers think are political but where Chuck thinks the answers should be focused on process and math.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank says 2024 will end up as "a pretty good year for the economy," with the soft nearly in place as the Fed starts to cut rates in the summer. He notes that worries about an interest-rate shock or an energy-price shock -- the big two drivers of recession -- are not exceptionally high right now and any raised concerns in those areas have enough offsets for the U.S. economy to remain the world's best while global turmoil and economic uncertainty plays out. Nick Pisano discusses a Clever Real Estate survey showing that nearly three-quarters of all Americans report having an overspending problem. David Trainer of New Constructs puts SNAP Inc. back into The Danger Zone, noting the stock probably won't be out of trouble until the stock reaches zero, and Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors forecasts that the Standard & Poor's 500 will hit 5,750 or higher as part of the macro outlook he uses to inform his stock picking in the Market Call.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, turned positive on the market back in November and he's not ready to ring the register and close out the current rally just yet, though there are some metrics showing that "the market is about as overextended as it's been historically before you get a correction." That doesn't make him nervous or worried, but he says that's a symptom rather than a sell signal. Meanwhile, he sees a bull market running in commodities and he intends to ride that until the market corrects. In the Big Interview, Steve Scruggs, manager of the FPA Queens Road funds, says that he would expect small caps to be helped along by interest rate cuts so long as the consumer does not run out of steam when it comes to spending. He favors a mix of long-term compounders and special situations, but notes that quality is expensive right now and the best opportunities are among some stocks that have been beaten down or punished due to operating anomalies that have the chance to revert to the mean and tick up from here. Harin de Silva, manager of the Allspring Global Dividend Opportunity fund says in The NAVigator segment that the US has remained one of the best places to be in terms of yields generated relative to the risks being taken. While he favors a global allocation, he noted that the fund has a surprising tilt toward the United States, helped along by the low volatility levels due to the strength of the U.S. economy. De Silva says that the big surprise in recent markets has been how the bad news from Ukraine and Israel -- along with troubles at both the Suez and Panama Canal -- hasn't created uncertainty in the market and convinced investors to stop taking on risk. Plus, Loren Hsaio discusses the latest information from Northwestern Mutual's 2024 Planning & Progress Study, which shows that Americans are coping with record levels of financial insecurity right now.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says that American investors who have some $6 trillion in cash are in danger of missing out as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in coming months, meaning they should focus on what they are doing with their cash-like investments. That's why he made Fidelity Limited Term Bond his "ETF of the Week," noting that unexciting -- but in line with expectations -- is something investors should be striving for right now, so that they are protected when the rate picture changes. In The big Interview, Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors, talks about how flexible bond-fund investors should be preparing for rate cuts and focusing in on duration plays -- where they are extending maturities right now to lock in current high rates -- while recognizing that credit quality will be a big factor in what happens when the cuts start happening. Plus, Miles Tullo discusses recent research from J.D. Power on how convenience is driving Americans to digital wallets and how satisfied consumers are making the change from greenbacks to digital use of money. Plus, Sandy Villere, co-manager of Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at the Macro Institute, says that people should not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in hopes of rescuing the economy or keeping the market rally rolling. Instead, he says the Fed tends to cut rates when things go wrong, which he expects to happen by the middle of the year, when bad economic news starts piling up. Nick is not expecting the proverbial soft landing, noting that macro indicators like the inverted yield curve and more are still working through the economic cycle and are making it that the full force of a slowdown will be felt in 2025, and that "the next seven to eight quarters will be tough especially compared to the five or six that have come before it." In "The Financial Crunch from Money Pickle," Dave Rowan, president of Rowan Financial, discusses how investors can integrate real estate and property investments into a portfolio and how "passive income" does not fully describe the role those property buyers play in their holdings. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund, talks about buying businesses rather than stocks, focusing on analyzing what a company does to determine when the stock is presenting a real long-term value and opportunity.
David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com and the president at Sierra Alpha Research, says the market's first quarter was much stronger than he expected, avoiding a low that he was expecting. The current low-volatility incline the market is on reminded Keller of 2021, a time when the market was recovering from Covid and kept driving higher despite concerns. Keller says that he is watching for danger signs like a spike in volatility or deterioration in breadth indicators, but lacking those troubles he says the market is giving a "long and strong" impression that he is inclined to follow until those trouble spots become visible. In The Big Interview, Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that the Federal Reserve has two choices right now, one of which is declaring victory over inflation despite not having achieved its target rate, or it can push harder to get the job done, which might knock the economy off of its soft-landing trajectory. Like Keller, Treussard notes the market's low volatility as a positive, though he worries that it is making investors take extra chances that could turn into trouble when the market turns. Plus, Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, brings his earnings-centric investment style to the Money Life Market Call.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, says that he doesn't see the economy going into a recession, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates "at a leisurely pace" and to get through inflation-reduction with a soft landing. Gruenwald recently raised his growth projection for the economy and he says the strong economy is letting the Fed take its time in cutting rates, but that current levels of 5.25 percent are too high. He doesn't expect the central bank to cut rates below 3 percent, which he expects it to reach with a few rate cuts this year starting in June and four to five cuts next year. Larry Tentarelli, founder/chief technical strategist, Blue Chip Daily Trend Report says the market's upward trend has room to run. As a technician, Tentarelli says the most bullish signal is a market at new highs because there is no overhead resistance, and while he expects some small, normal pullbacks along the way, he expects the long-term move to be higher. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits a meme stock in The Danger Zone and author Anne Lester discusses her new book, "Your Best Financial Life: Save Smart Now for the Future You Want."
Kim Blanton of the Boston College Center for Retirement Research – where she writes the Squared Away blog -- says that Americans wind up falling into some classic psychological traps when it comes time to claim Social security benefits, and often take the money before they need it based on flawed thinking, reducing their retirement benefits for life. She highlights how savers -- even when confronted with numbers showing that their lifetime benefits will be significantly better with a late start, and assuming they have a long life -- instead jump at the chance to get a smaller amount of money so long as they can start receiving it now. Nicholas Marshi, editor at the BDC Reporter, talks about the struggles business development companies had at the end of 2023 and how they have been performing in the new year, with an outlook for what's ahead as the interest rate cycle starts to change. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes BlackRock U.S. Equity Factor Rotation his "ETF of the Week," and Ken Applegate, portfolio manager for the Wasatch International Growth and International Select funds talks in the Market Call segment about the promise of foreign small-cap stocks now, after long periods of underperformance for both small-company and overseas investments.
Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the big picture still argues for overweigting stocks relative to bonds and cash so long as the Federal Reserve follows through on making rate cuts and the economy avoids recession. While economic conditions make it look like a soft landing is in place now, Kalish is concerned about the outlook for 2025, noting that his concern level rises the longer the Fed holds off on rate cuts. Kalish says that the central bank can cut rates while still having restrictive policies, and that if it keeps rates tight for too long, cuts would come too late to avoid much rougher times. Also on the show: Bloomberg reporter Saleha Mohsin talks about her new book, "Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order" and how long the U.S. can maintain its position as the world's financial superpower; Brent Thurman, chief executive officer at Money Pickle discusses the latest developments in the fiduciary rule governing the behavior of financial advisers and whether it makes a difference to consumers in their day-to-day workings with brokers and financial planners; plus, with the Major League Baseball season just one day away, tax attorney David DeJong of Stein Sperling discusses what you might want to toss back and forth with your tax adviser if you are lucky enough to catch a milestone baseball when you go to the ballpark this year.
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, says that current conditions -- with inflation falling significantly year-over-year and no attendant hike in unemployment and no recession -- are the proverbial soft landing, and he believes these conditions can persist at least through the rest of the year. The soft landing as the dominant macro story will give the Federal Reserve leeway to cut interest rates less than expected, Cleveland says, and he expects central bankers to make cuts cautiously and reluctantly. By comparison, in the Talking Technicals segment, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders says that he thinks the stock market has one last leg up before the indexes -- which are showing signs of topping out -- take a turn for the worse, triggering a correction that he expects to start before election day in November. Further, Vermeulen says the rough market conditions will stick around, rather than representing a buying opportunity on the rebound. Plus, Larry McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, is back to discuss his new book, "How to Listen When Markets Speak: Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy."
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says "This is one of the most momentum-driven markets I can recall ... where the winning stocks in one month continue to be the winning stocks the next month and then continue to win again the following month." Yet he believes in being fearful at times when others are greedy, because there are enough warning signs to make investors justifiably concerned that the rally can't last forever. Sosnick says now that the strong economy has made it that the Federal Reserve doesn't need to make rate cuts now, though he still expects them later this year. Also on the show, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says that recently revealed accounting concerns may be the catalyst that knocks data-center REIT Equinix from its lofty perch, so he put the stock back in The Danger Zone, but Samuel Adams, chief executive at Vert Asset Management and manager of the Vert Global Sustainable Real Estate fund, says in the Market Call that data centers -- and particularly Equinix -- are among his favorite buys right now, with his long-term buy-and-hold strategy allowing him to ride out what he expects will be short-term issues due to the reported accounting issues.
Scott Colyer, chief executive officer at Advisors Asset Management, says he is cautious right now, but the cyclicals, materials, energy and health care tend to be strong during periods when the Federal Reserve is bringing interest rates down. He suggests riding that trend, saying "You take your cue from the Fed, now is the time that you want risk-on. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors, says he expects the stock market to have its average draw-down of 14 percent at some point this year, but he expects it to be a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Plus, Axel Merk, chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, discusses the impact that Saba Capital Management is having on the fund and on shareholders, having entered the fund as an activist, moving to change the board as it pushes for a double-digit discount to be narrowed. Merk discusses the challenge of dealing with activist investors in a junior mining fund, the potential for the fund to be liquidated, the possible outcomes and the impact of the action on shareholders.
Cheryl Smith, economist/portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, sees the economic tide as running out, and that it will be taking the stock market with it, and while she does not think it will be a steep, sharp, protracted drop, she does say investors will want to prepare for it. She suggests keeping the portfolio simple, rather than going after alternative investments built to make money even when the market is down; she says investors will likely prefer buying U.S. multinational companies rather than investing in foreign stocks and says investors should be moving the portfolio now, so that it is well-positioned when trouble arrives post-election. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a young actively managed bond fund from Pimco his "ETF of the Week," Cassandra Happe discusses a WalletHub study showing that nearly early 3 in 4 Americans think tipping has gotten out of control, and money manager and financial historian Daniel Peris discusses his new book, "The Ownership Dividend: The Coming Paradigm Shift in the U.S. Stock Market."
Kim Blanton, writer at the Boston College Center for Retirement Research, calls the search for assisted living "an opaque experience" and notes -- through the story of her mother but also reporting from a hearing before the Senate Committee on Aging from January -- that most people focus more on the "living" part of the issues when they should be paying most attention to the assistance part of the plan. Nick Young, chief experience officer at Money Pickle joins Chuck on The Financial Crunch to discuss robo advisors compared to working with planning pros, Ted Rossman discusses a new BankRate.com survey showing that a growing number of taxpayers plan to boost savings rather than paying down debts with tax refunds this year, and Geoff Garbacz, principal at Quantitative Partners, brings his indicator-driven approach to the Market Call.
Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the market's recent rally appears to have run out of steam, requiring "a little bit of a breather" before the market makes more real upward progress. He expects a 5 to 10 percent pullback, with Standard & Poor's 500 using the 5,000 level as its new support level and the uptrend only being threatened if the sell-off pushes it below 4,600. Jay Zagorsky, a professor who studies the gaming industry at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business, says some $20 billion will be gambled on March Madness this year, with a record number of participants placing some type of wager thanks to rapid growth in legalized gaming. Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, discusses his just-released new book, "Ask Questions, Save Money, Make More: How to Take Control of Your Financial Life," and Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy & Income Advisor newsletter is talking income-generating stocks in the Market Call.
Macro strategist Larry McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that the current economic situation is "very 1980s like," a condition that requires different strategies than what most investors have used since the financial crisis of 2008. In a '1980s recession,' a very hot economy keeps inflation ripping and pushes oil prices high, and leaves the bottom 60 percent of the population struggling to keep up, and he says consumers are starting to show that tension now. The conditions should be good, McDonald says, for industrials and the oil and gas industries. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs revisits SweetGreen, noting that the recent jump in the price simply has increased the peril facing investors, which is unexpected because the stock was in the Danger Zone before its IPO in 2021 and subsequently became a so-called zombie stock for being on the verge of running out of capital. Plus, Sophia Titley discusses Live and Invest Overseas' index on the world's top 10 retirement destinations for 2024, and Craig Giventer, managing director of portfolio strategies at GYL Financial Synergies, makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.
Kevin "Lex" Luthringhausen, chief content officer at Tradier Hub, says he has been stubbornly short the stock market expecting a mild pullback that hasn't been coming because the market is "insanely bullish" right now, having pushed stocks, gold and cryptocurrency into record territory. While Luthringhausen is confident that there will be a consolidation, he does not expect "a massive sell-off" until after the presidential election, when he foresees a potential 10 percent correction; in the interim, he is expecting a solid year with slight pullbacks but near constant upward pressure. Dan Omstead, global head of health care investments at Abrdn, says in 'The NAVigator segment' that health care's recent rally from several years of struggle represents the start of a positive trend that has the ability to run from here. Steve Coughran, author of "Reframing Rich: Creating a Better Relationship with Your Money, Yourself, and Others" talks in the Book Interview about getting the right money mindset to achieve and accept financial success, and Clayton LiaBraaten discusses a Truecaller survey showing that one in five Americans was the victim of a telephone scam in 2023, a problem that cost U.S. consumers more $24.5 billion.
Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says that he expects the stock market to surprise investors in 2024 "the way it did in 2023," producing the kind of double-digit gains that are typical of the second year of a bull market. Once the market gets into the third year of the current bull run -- in 2025, after the presidential election -- he expects a turn because "that's when bull markets tend to die an early death." Stovall notes that while he thinks the market could take a pause or minor correction before resuming its climb, he expects leadership to change from large caps -- which he says are trading at a 30 percent premium to the Standard & Poor's 500 average price/earnings ratio over the last 20 years -- to small and mid-cap stocks, which have been trading at a steep discount. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a specialized sector play -- the VictoryShares WestEnd U.S. Sector fund -- as his ETF of the Week, and Cullen Roche, chief investment officer at the Discipline Funds, talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Tony DeSpirito, global chief investment officer of fundamental equities at BlackRock -- lead portfolio manager of the BlackRock Equity Dividend fund -- says that the Federal Reserve will be more concerned with inflation than deflation for the next three to five years, keeping interest rates relatively high and creating more market volatility; he says that increased back and forth will make for good opportunities for active management to deliver market-beating results. DeSpirito is looking for some of that performance from health-care stocks, in Japan and by focusing on quality as an investment factor. Also on the show, Cam Miller, co-founder and chief revenue officer at Money Pickle, talks about the different ways that individuals compensate financial advisers and how it's important to match expectations and desires to the payment process. Plus, Todd Gervasini, founder and chief investment officer at Wakefield Asset Management, makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.
Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, says that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & poor's 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are all "trading at the very upper end of an 18-month trading range and this is not usually where you start a whole other leg higher," so he expects a correction back to about 4,600 on the S&P in the next six weeks. When that move is finished, Johnson expects the market to resume its upturn but then to settle into a "high-level trading range," which he says is typical of election years and that it amounts to a sideways move. In that environment, the market will recover from the correction, and then he notes that he thinks it will fizzle and go sideways. Also on the show, Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services, discusses the latest updated to his “Retirement Planning Guidebook," which center around "tax mapping" and how investors may want to rethink investment strategies in retirement with an eye on minimizing taxes using strategies most haven't considered before now. In the Market Call, Scott Davies, founder/chief investment officer at CDAM, talks about "fire and forget" investing.
Jeff Kolitch, portfolio manager for the Baron Real Estate and Baron Real Estate Income funds, says that the scary headlines about real estate -- and particularly commercial real estate -- have been an over-reaction and says investors want to be looking at real estate stocks now rather than waiting for "an all-clear signal" on the industry. "The best time to step in is when there's angst out there," Kolitch says, "and we like the set-up and think it's a great time to lean into real estate." Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, reaffirms Rivian as a zombie stock that remains overvalued despite coming down by 30 percent in a recent drop-off, and he notes that the stock seems inexorably headed to losing everything. In the Market Call, Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners -- manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF -- talks exchange-traded funds.
Alaina Anderson, co-portfolio manager at the William Blair International Leaders Fund, says that when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates -- which she expects in the second half of the year -- which should soften up the U.S. dollar, a situation that would make foreign stocks more attractive. She notes that she particularly likes Japan right now, and is guarded on China, where both performance and geopolitical issues are creating genuine worries. In The NAVigator, Cory Johnson of Pender Capital -- which runs the Pender Capital Real Estate Credit Fund, a closed-end debt interval fund -- says that the alarming headlines about commercial real estate have created "an abundance of very interesting opportunities" for private credit lenders like his firm, which is seeing "the most attractive risk-adjusted yields we have seen since the financial crisis [of 2009]." Max Wasserman, senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital, discusses dividend-growth investing -- and the importance of asset-allocation decisions in building concentrated portfolios for individual investors -- in the Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about how to deal with all of the great investment ideas that come out of the show and how to decide which ones might be worth a spot in the portfolio.
Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says the market is not pricing in geopolitical risks adequately, so while things look good for the U.S. economy, the domestic stock market could be more vulnerable to global financial events that could trigger a downturn. Sargen also discusses why economists are worse than weathermen when it comes to forecasting future storms. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a young, granular actively managed fund that focuses on the supply chain for his ETF of the Week. In the Money Life Market Call, Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, says it is time to start looking at contrarian plays in real estate, energy and utilities, and to consider backing away from big technology.
Mike Buckius, chief executive officer at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that the concentration at the top of the market and the rate cycle and the Federal Reserve's delays in cutting rates have made it that investors should manage risks, because valuations have gotten frothy and drawdowns "throw investors off of their long-term plans." He says that the market's bounce-back to record highs makes it feel like stocks are due for 'a pause and consolidation,' which is the kind of time when Gateway's index-option strategy -- using options to generate income that protects against downturns -- tends to work best, and he discusses the firm's new ETF which focuses on the quality factor. Plus, Steve Coughran, chief financial officer at MoneyPickle.com, is here for "The Financial Crunch," discussing whether there is ever a time for investors and savers to act panicky, and how you work with an adviser to build emotional discipline and to never let the market get the best of you. In the Market Call, Scott Bennett of Invest With Rules, brings together trend-following, watching the movements of big money and risk management to decide which stocks and ETFs to invest in now.
The optimists and the pessimists will be served today on Money Life, as two interviews look at the same market but come to wildly different conclusions. Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says in the "Talking Technicals" segment that she "sees some really big red flags waving," and that it will get rocky as the market backs away from being "extremely over-extended." She expects the market to take a turn for the worse, though she thinks election-year conditions may prop the market up and minimize the potential damage. Meanwhile, at the end of the show in the Big interview, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, says a pullback would be "completely normal," but he expects stocks to overcome a bumpy ride to finish the year up from here provided the economy can sidestep a recession. Also on the show, financial journalist Liz Weston of NerdWallet.com discusses her recent decision to retire and how she made a decision that proved difficult despite years of preparing for it, plus Mark Higgins discusses his new book, "Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future."
Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management, says that valuations abroad are better than what investors are seeing domestically -- noting that international small cap stocks are trading at a discount of 10 times compared to domestic large-cap companies -- but made it clear he favors Japan and India while worrying that geopolitical issues are making it difficult to invest in China despite compelling valuations that have it among the cheapest nations in the world. Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Reddit's upcoming initial public offering into the Danger Zone, Chuck discusses the bad banking pitch wrapped in a flag by a new bank trying to capitalize on political disagreement, and Bryan Wong, co-manager of Osterweis Emerging Opportunity, talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that the gold market is surprised by how strongly the price of gold has held above the $2,000 level this year despite "rather tepid demand for physical cold in North America in Europe." Millman notes that there is a geopolitical premium on gold right now, which combined with the election year and concerns over inflation and interest rates has helped prices hold current levels, and he expects it to trade sideways until there is more clarity on monetary policy, although he otes that longer-term, he can see a case for gold reaching $3,000 an ounce by the end of the decade. Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the current sweet spot in closed-end funds and why that prompted the firm to open a new ETF of closed-end funds. Plus, in the Market Call, Allen Bond, head of research at Jensen Investment Management talks about buying quality stocks at reasonable prices.
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, multi-asset strategist at Wellington Management -- the global investment strategist for the Hartford Funds -- says that she prefers equities to bonds right now, despite fixed income delivering its best returns in years, noting that she particularly likes dividend paying stocks, both in the U.S. and in Europe. Jacobson also likes Japan, but she dislikes emerging markets and is particularly wary of China right now. Todd Rosenbluth at VettaFi likes the looks of a relatively new actively managed ETF from T. Rowe Price that invests in small and mid-cap companies as his "ETF of the Week." Greg McBride discusses a new study from Bankrate.com showing that 36% of Americans have more credit-card debt than emergency savings and, in the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds talks about his brand of deep-value investing.
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says value investing is poised for success, not just in the United States -- where the market has been dominated by a few high-priced big names -- but globally, and particularly in emerging markets where the technology names that almost never trade at discounts here are bargain-priced now. In a wide-ranging interview, Faber discusses how the market's run has highlighted the disfunction of some conventional indexes, the parts of the market that excite him -- and that Cambria Funds has released new issues to cover -- and more. In "The Financial Crunch," Brent Thurman, chief executive officer at Money Pickle, dispels some common misconceptions about financial planning that are being spread in television commercials by a big national firm. Plus, in the Money Life Market Call, Eric Boughton, chief analyst at Matisse Capital, talks about buying the big discounts currently available in closed-end funds.
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that there are plenty of minor, nagging concerns about the market, but the major trend is up "and until there is evidence such as falling breadth or deteriorating volume" and more, investors should ride the trend higher. Kahn notes that the Magnificent Seven -- which have led the market higher -- have gone up so much that any bad news for them "could be a real problem" that would drag the index down, but there are other opportunities worth pursuing as part of the current rally. The show also features two conversations concerning couples and their relationships with money, with The Book Interview featuring Scott Rick, author, “Tightwads and Spendthrifts: Navigating the Money Minefield in Real Relationships,” before Chuck digs into the annual Debt and Divorce Study from Debt.com with Howard Dvorkin. In the Market Call, Dave Gilreath, chief investment officer at Innovative Portfolios, talks dividend-paying stocks, and how the best of them today are not in some of the sectors that income investors have typically favored.
Bill Davis, portfolio manager at Stance Capital -- which managed the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF -- says companies in the bottom two-thirds of the Standard & Poor's 500 are poised to out perform moving forward as the stock market moves back towards normalcy with more stocks sharing in the solid economic underpinnings and the Magnificent Seven stocks and other giants having reduced role in the market's growth. Likewise, Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, says the resilient economy in the United States is pointing towards a soft-or no-landing situation where more stocks should benefit from inflation normalizing. That's also what has economists being more optimistic, as the February Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today, shows that a majority of economists expect inflation to hit the Federal Reserve's target level of 2 percent next year; Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, discusses the survey. Plus David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts Revvity Inc. -- a company with what he says are massively overstated street earnings -- in the Danger Zone.
Bill Nygren, co-manager of the Oakmark Fund, says investors should expect slower growth from the market for the next decade; as a result, he says "the long-term equity investor should probably be thinking about something on the order of 7or 8 percent a year rather than the double-digit level." There will still be buys, Nygrem says, but investors will need to go against the herd -- and be selective amongst names like the Magnificent Seven stocks -- in order to find them. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, digs into his firm's data to compare and contrast business development companies and municipal bond closed-end funds as a way to pump up yield without feeling like you've taken on too much risk in a scary interest rate environment. Plus, Michael Loukas, chief executive officer at TrueMark Investments, talks about artificial intelligence and deep learning stocks in The Market Call.
Bernie Horn, long-time manager of Polaris Global Value, says that value stocks have outperformed growth stocks outside of the United States for several years and he expects the domestic markets to follow suit as central banks keep interest rates higher, creating positive real returns for fixed income and ending some of the bubbles caused in equity sectors caused by years of borrowings at interest rates near zero. While he expects the change to be global, Horn notes that he favors international stocks now because their valuations are more attractive. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi also goes international with his ETF of the Week, picking an emerging market fund that excludes China for investors who have been scared away by concerns over China's markets. Nate Miles, head of retirement at Allspring Global Investments discusses the firm’s annual retirement survey, which showed that two-thirds of retirees and near-retirees think they are ready for retirement, but advisers think just 40 percent of their clientele is ready to make the leap. Plus, Dave Grossman, the founder of MilesTalk, discusses how to travel the world on loyalty points and frequent-flier miles and digs into the Capital One-Discovery merger and how it might change the points landscape for years.
Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, says that the Federal Reserve is not going to give the market the five or more interest rate cuts it has been expecting. As a result, he suggests banking on bond yields that will stay higher for longer, even if the central bank gives a token cut or two; on stocks, he expects a better growth picture without a recession or a big correction, but because valuations are high he is looking to securities with earnings power, so he is thinking mega-cap financials, aerospace and defense companies and more. Nick Young, chief experience officer at Money Pickle, discusses what savers and investors should expect from a first meeting with a financial adviser and how to guard against falling in love at first conversation, Chuck answers a listener's question about the differences between closed-end funds and exchange-traded funds and Taylor Krystkowiak, investment strategist at the Themes ETFs, talks thematic investments in the Market Call.
David Giroux, manager of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation -- a fund that has beaten the performance of its average peer for a record 16 straight calendar years -- says that while U.S. stock valuations have gotten lofty, investors "don't need to diversify into a worse geography," and says investors can get international exposure by buying U.S. multi-nationals and have better companies. Domestically, Giroux says that the mega-cap Magnificent Seven stocks have gotten expensive but they are still worth holding over the next five years, but that investors must realize they won't "be where the best risk-rewards is in the market today." He's looking at high-grade fixed income, as well as utilities, parts of health care and other areas where low valuations are making the probability of success high. Also on the show, Matt Fox, president at Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the technicals are challenging for the market right now because "there is no real price memory" when the market moves into record territory, yet he is encouraged by "Multi-year bases that have experienced decisive breakouts across all sectors of the market," a phenomenon normally seen relatively early in an uptrend. Fox does think the market could retest the 4,800 level soon, but he remains positive on where it goes from here. Plus, author Kurt Wagner comes in for The Book Interview, discussing his new book -- out today -- "Battle for the Bird: Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk, and the $44 Billion Fight for Twitter's Soul.”
Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that several European nations are in recession while their stock markets are pushing through record highs, in conditions so unusual that U.S. activities are helping foreign multinationals keep rolling. Still, Miskin believes the U.S. is the best market, though he is now skewing the portfolio toward mid-cap names, pulling back slightly on the mega-cap giants over valuation concerns and leaning into bonds for the safety of consistent returns in excess of 5 percent. Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, turns the conversation to technicals, and while he believes that "There's not much that is more bullish than all-time highs," he thinks returns will be muted for 2024. Plus, Dana Staggs, president of ArrowMark Financial Corp., discusses how investments in the banking business through something called "regulatory capital relief securities" can both juice and stabilize returns, and Christopher Zook, president, CAZ Investments returns to the show, talking thematic investing at a reasonable price in the Market Call.
Rick Pitcairn, chief global strategist at Pitcairn, says that while the markets have been dominated by monetary policy for the last decade or more, the next 20 years will see fiscal policy will be equally or more important because of how the government borrows money and what it needs to take on in new debts to keep rolling. Pitcairn acknowledges that the current dysfunction in Washington worries him about how policies will be set and the potential fallout from gridlock. In the Market Call, Dan Kim, senior investment analyst at Saturna Capital -- co-manager of the Sextant International fund -- talks about the international opportunities available now, plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi turns to a long-time traditional fund manager making a recent move into exchange-traded funds for his ETF of the Week.
David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- author of the Haymaker newsletter focused on macroeconomic research -- says that 'Pseudo prosperity is still prosperity,' and investors should like whatever they are getting from the economy now because he does not think it will last. Hay says the market "is almost all-in on Goldilocks," which will "make it hard to make money betting on the soft landing." Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments -- co-author of Tony Robbins' new book, "The Holy Grail of Investing" -- talks about the themes and the alternative investments that will drive the next decade or more while delivering oversized gains. Plus, in "The Financial Crunch," Cam Miller, chief revenue officer at Money Pickle, talks about how much money someone needs to have before turning to a financial adviser for help.
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that the stock market is "crashing higher," having reached record levels with no signs of stopping but that doesn't mean he's buying now because he finds it over-stretched. De Kempenaer sees the market going through rotation right now, with money flowing from value into growth right now helping to push things higher. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association returns to the show to discuss the January Beer Purchasers' Index, which showed that consumers have been responding to inflation by cutting back on the high-end beers and spending more on the below-premium drinks. Plus, insurance analyst Shannon Martin of Bankrate.com discusses the high and rising costs of auto insurance, and author Michael Graetz discusses his new book, "The Power to Destroy: How the Antitax Movement Hijacked America."
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that while market valuations are high right now on a historic basis -- which might make investors cautious -- the sky-high prices for the Magnificent Seven stocks that have been leading the market to record levels have left room for the other stocks in the index to be particularly reasonable. That means the market's overall valuation is more reasonable than headlines suggest, and there is room to grow in other sectors. Likewise, economists are feeling like economic policies are working well enough to avoid big problems like recession this year -- according to the latest Policy Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today; Lester Jones of the NABE survey committee discusses how economists still have some worries about fiscal policies and how the Federal Reserve might mess things up. Plus David Trainer of New Constructs revisits a Danger Zone pick that has fallen dramatically but that he thinks will go all the way to zero in due time, and author Jared Dillian talks about his new book "No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life" and how three key financial decisions will determine how easily you can avoid feeling day-to-day financial pressures.
Jeff Rosenkranz, fixed income portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management, says that if the Federal Reserve waits too long to cut rates or if systemic problems resurface -- including potential troubles with bank safety -- the economy could be due for more trouble than most observers expect. Rosenkranz expects to see a significant increase in credit troubles and defaults, noting that the classic default cycle that accompanies rate hikes hasn't really occurred yet, but that it's unlikely to be avoided completely. One area that has struggled with the rate cycle has been municipal bond funds, and Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, says that has pushed muni closed-end funds to record discount levels, but that has created opportunities for attractive income levels and heightened total return for investors willing to swim against the tide. In the "Talking Technicals" segment, Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Charles Schwab, says that with the Standard & Poor's 500 on the verge of the 5,000 level, the market has gotten beyond levels of resistance which creates significant opportunity for the market to run right up to the point where it runs out of steam, warning that these kind of rallies "typically don't end well." Plus, author Malissa Clark discusses finding the right work-life balance and her new book, "Never Not Working: Why the Always-On Culture Is Bad for Business--and How to Fix It."
Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors, is worried that with 'all of Wall Street being bullish again," overblown earnings expectations, strong employment and the more getting the Federal Reserve to where it will wait longer before cutting rates, the stock market has gotten a bit overblown. As a result, she thinks there's a good chance of a short-term correction, potentially down to the 4,400 level on the Standard & Poor's 500, though she does think there's a good chance the market comes through that to finish the year on a positive note. Rick Gable, portfolio manager for the MFS Global Real Estate fund, takes stock in the real estate market, noting that while the entire business has made a lot of negative news, the sour stories mostly are impacting office space and the rest of the market is full of opportunities. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a young fund with a great three-year track record that can be an actively managed addition to the passive portions of a portfolio, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the fund offering filed Wednesday by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman.
Today, Money Life debuts its latest feature, The Financial Crunch with Money Pickle, a fin-tech company that is changing the financial world by making affordable and convenient financial coaching available to investors. Brent Thurman, Money Pickle's chief executive, discusses finding a financial adviser and how investors have it so much better now that technology can make the process smooth and easy. Kelley Wright, editor at Investment Quality Trends, returns to the show for the first time since 2017, and discusses his take on how to pick value stocks in the Market Call. Plus, Ken Costa, author of "The 100 Trillion Dollar Wealth Transfer: How the Handover from Boomers to Gen Z Will Revolutionize Capitalism," and Chuck discusses his Super Bowl Ad/IPO indicator, which suggests that the real losers of this weekend's big game will be investors in young companies advertising during the telecast.
Jim Thorne, economist/chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, says that "The Fed is the Fed of the world," and that how central bankers act in the United States act will determine the economic prospects of the rest of the world, and he worries that as the Federal Reserve tightens, it could over-tighten and create economic issues. He expects a growth shock, but says the U.S. will get through it and remain the best market to invest in around the globe. Michele Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, says that the "inside sectors of the U.S. economy" -- small caps, retail and transportation -- will be the ones that tell the economic story moving forward; she says those sectors are still adjusting, to the end of zero-interest rate policy but are showing signs that there should be plenty of opportunity there for the rest of the year. Also, entrepreneur Madeline Pendleton discusses her new book, “I Survived Capitalism and All I Got Was This Lousy T-Shirt: Everything I Wish I Never Had to Learn About Money."
Pedro Palandrani, head of research at Global X, says that the continued evolution of the electric vehicle market will make it so that lithium and copper companies are the next equivalent of the Big Oil stocks, but he worries that the industries are among the most sensitive globally to geopolitical risk, which he says investors should factor into their allocation decisions. In honor of the upcoming Valentine's Day holiday, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs foregoes the Danger Zone in favor of talking about an attractive stock this week, and he singles out Photronics as a company which despite good recent numbers has a long way to go. Plus Dan Skubiz, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at ZCM, makes his debut in the Market Call talking about investing in small=-cap stocks at a time when a few mega-cap names have been dominating the market.
Jim Welsh, author of "Macro Tides" and the "Weekly Technical Review" newsletters says that if the market can rally past recent highes -- with the Standard & Poor's 500 topping 4931 -- it will finish the market's recent rally and leave stocks vulnerable to a small correction over the next few months. That said, Welsh believes in a 17-year cycle that his charts show dates back nearly 100 years, and that cycle is cooking up a coming secular bear market that ultimately could last for a decade and crater the market in the process. Susan Fahy discusses the latest "CreditGauge" measures from VantageScore, which show that the consumer is showing signs of financial stress, but the action hasn't been as bad in most areas as the headlines might suggest. Ian Merrill of SCG Asset Management and The Alternative Strategies Income Fund talks about how money managers can add derivatives to a portfolio in ways that mitigate risks but goose returns over the long haul, and Vince Lorusso, president/portfolio manager of Clough Capital, talks valuation investing in the Market Call.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says investors should be looking at an equal-weighted approach to the market -- allowing all winners to have a chance to succeed -- despite the strong 2023 put up by the Standard & Poor's 500, a market-cap weighted index whose results were dominated by the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks. Rosenbluth made the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF his ETF of the Week, noting that while the tech sector is a big part of most asset allocations, most of the money has been going into the few names rather than the broad group of stocks. Also on the show, Ted Rossman on the latest Bankrate.com study on financial infidelity, which showed that 40 percent of people in live-in romantic relationships are keeping financial secrets from their spouse or partner. Long-time financial journalist and money coach Lynette Khalfani-Cox returns to the show to discuss financial literacy efforts, student loan repayments, money media and more, and Rob Isbitts brings the methodology that's behind his new site -- ETFYourself.com -- to the Market Call.
Mark Hebner, chief executive officer at Index Fund Advisors, says that the dominant action of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks is nothing new, and that the market has long shown a propensity for companies to have oversized performance as their shares moved into the top 10 of an index, only to then regress toward the mean. It's not just why he thinks the Magnificent Seven will cool off in the not-too-distant future, but it reinforces investors using index funds to ride out the market rather than trying to be stock-pickers and falling prey to the market moving against them. Matt Brannon, data analyst with Clever Real Estate, discusses the site's 2024 State of Retirement Finances report, which found that 40 percent of retirees worry about living their savings and nearly 20 percent more say they already have. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about selecting bond funds, and author Ernest Scheyder discusses his new book, "The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives."
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the Federal Reserve seems to have pulled off the rare soft landing, and that portends good things ahead because previous soft landings -- in 1964, 1984 and 1994 -- the markets mostly rewarded investors who invested "as if it was late cycle," where growth funds tend to lead the way. Kelly does think the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself, but still thinks the year should be positive; he also notes that investors will want to add to the fixed income side of their portfolios, and he currently likes intermediate-term investments given the shifts ahead in the yield curve. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's lates Emergency Savings Report, which shows that only 44 percent of Americans say they could afford to pay for a $1,000 emergency expense, plus we introduce a new sponsor to the show as veteran money manager Rob Isbitts talks about his latest venture, ETFYourself.com and, in the Market Call, Michael Lowenberg, portfolio manager of the Modern Capital Tactical Income Fund, talks stocks.
Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research -- which focuses on earnings results for much of its forecasting -- says that with about one quarter of companies having now reported earnings results for 2023, the numbers look like "more of the same, more of the good stuff." He doesn't expect growth to be impressive this year, but there's also not much negative guidance or gloomy outlooks from companies, and he expects that mixed but largely benign environment to last through the year. Meanwhile, Hamish Preston, director of U.S. equity indices for S&P Dow Jones Indices, talks about the market's recent record highs and what they portend for the year ahead, noting that In years when the S&P 500 hits a new peak in January, gains tend to be higher than normal for the year, an average gain of roughly 10.5 percent compared to years when the market fails to reach record levels until later. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a large-cap fund that gets a four-star rating from Morningstar into the Danger Zone for holding too many dangerous stocks, and Lynette Khalfani-Cox discusses her new book, "Bounce Back: The Ultimate Guide to Financial Resilience."
Brian Allen, chief investment officer at CS McKee, says "The market has done a lot of the easing work to launch the easing campaign in 2024," meaning that the Federal Reserve will not feel much pressure to cut rates more than four times this year. He says there's no pressure for more due to the bond market rallying over the last few months while the stock market was moving to all-time highs; that also raised valuations to where investors should lower their return expectations for both stocks and bonds this year. Also on the show, Jenny Naughton, executive vice president for Chubb Personal Risk Services, about the firm's recent study showing that wealthy Americans consider extreme weather -- and the damage it could do --as the biggest threats to their wealth this year, Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, sizes up the ETFs that invest in closed-end funds, and William Smead of the Smead Value fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, says that while he expects large-cap stocks -- led by the Magnificent Seven names -- to have a positive year that could potentially see returns in the 8 to 9 percent range, the market has set up for smaller companies to really pay off. He says that small-and mid-cap stocks are trading at reasonable levels, giving them the potential to gain 15 to 25 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, Todd Rosenbluth is looking to stick with large-cap stocks -- but finding a cheaper way to own them while favoring value stocks -- as he picks a new large-cap index-based fund from Goldman Sachs as his ETF of the Week. Michael Young, director of education and outreach at the Sustainable Investment Forum, gives his outlook for ESG investing -- and for the controversies and politicization of funds with environmental, social and governance agendas -- in the year ahead, before Todd Jones, chief investment officer at Gratus Capital makes his debut in the Market Call talking stocks.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, says that he expects interest rates, yields and inflation to all be lower over the next three years, and that the economy will start growing more robustly once the rate cuts start. That is setting up a strong three-year run for stocks and bonds, one that Mahn thinks most investors should intuitively be expecting and be comfortable with. Stanford University professor Anat Admati, co-author of "The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It," discusses how the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other troubles that occurred in 2023 are not really over, and why the system that has immunized banks from most troubles has also ensured that troubles will keep happening. Plus, in the Market Call, Craig Sarembock, wealth adviser at Bartlett Wealth Management, talks about finding growth stocks at reasonable prices.
Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, says that the "rip-roaring rally" that started in late October on account of declining interest rates, and it slowed in January but now "Boom, suddenly you're back off to the races" with the stock market at new highs and the Standard & Poor's 500 now eyeing 5000. Weniger notes that there are plenty of concerns for the rally, and he notes that a downturn could test the classic 60-40 portfolio, where he thinks investors may be disappointed with how fixed income does its job of providing portfolio protection. Talking technicals, Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis says he is staying bullish, but he is on alert for changes because the current rally feels similar to January 2018 or 2020, both years that had solid starts only to turn ugly in February and March. Plus, Ronan McMahon discusses a study from International Living Magazine showing what countries people want to move to for their retirement years and what the most popular destinations have in common, and Jay Kaplan, portfolio manager of the Royce Small Cap Value fund, talks in the Market Call about being a business-valuation investor.
Bryan Shipley, co-chief executive/chief investment officer at Arnerich Massena, says that yields are more attractive overseas and there is the emergence of growth internationally, but domestic markets have deserved their higher valuation. Still, when he sees a struggle between domestic and international markets, it's usually a sign of leadership changing, which is one reason why he's keeping clients in foreign investments; it's part of a strategy where he recommends investors "choose their own reality," deciding where they want to participate among many opportunities and stories around the market. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's latest survey, which shows that 56 million credit cardholders have been revolving their debt on plastic for at least a year. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs revisits one of the original meme stocks and discusses why he thinks its picture is growing very dark, and hedge fund manager Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks about "valuation investing" in the Market Call.
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that the top-heavy nature of the stock market -- with so few stocks driving the bulk of returns in 2023 -- is going to make it hard for the standard & Poor's 500 index to gain much ground this year, though he notes that as investors have been chasing the same small group of stocks in a few sectors, other "high quality parts of the market have become notably more attractive." He compared it to the tech bubble of the late 1990s -- "the last time you had concentration anywhere close to what you have now" -- where certain sectors that lagged while the bubble was inflating became bargains. As a result, Jonson suggested investors invest in the defensive areas that the market has left behind over the last year. Also on the show, Cheryl Pate, manager of the Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust, gives her outlook for the banking sector this year and talks about the importance of focusing on credit quality as the rate cycle progresses, veteran financial journalist Allan Sloan discusses the lasting investment lessons from Charlie Munger -- Warren Buffett's right-hand man -- and Paul Daneshrad talks about his new book, "Money & Morons: How To Build Wealth And Protect Yourself From The Great Conflux."
Corin Frost, managing director at Helios Quantitative Research, says that while economic indicators are largely strong and positive, the stock market is not as connected to wave, largely because the Magnificent Seven stocks have driven so much performance that their ability to continue with good relative performance will go a long way to determining the year in the market, regardless of economic growth numbers. Todd Rosenbluth, director of research at VettaFi, picks his favorite of the brand new spot Bitcoin funds as the ETF of the Week and explains why his pick stands out from the crowd of new funds. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about Cathie Wood and the ARK Funds and discusses the feast-and-famine nature of their performance, and Josh West, portfolio manager at Buffalo Mid Cap, talks growth investing in the Market Call.
Technical analyst Michael Sincere of Michael Sincere’s Long-Term Trader sees the market as being ready to struggle in 2024, but he notes that trends in earnings will do the most to determine how it turns out, and if any of the Magnificent Seven stocks -- which spearheaded the market's dramatic gains in 2023 -- should stumble, he forecasts a major market decline. Chuck Mitchell of The Conference Board discusses the group's "C-Suite Outlook for 2024," which showed that top executives both domestically and abroad are scared of inflation and a potential recession, but most say they have not prepared for those potential outcomes yet. Plus, financial adviser Christopher Manske discusses his new book, "Outsmart the Money Magicians: Maximize Your Net Worth by Seeing Through the Most Powerful Illusions Performed by Wall Street and The IRS" and, in the Market Call, Kevin Rendino, chief executive officer at 180 Degree Capital, discusses value investing and activist management in small- and micro-cap investing.
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, expects the housing market to be better in 2024, and while it won't be as hot as it was during the pandemic nor as cold as it was after that run, "it's not quite right yet either, just better." He says the Federal Reserve's actions -- and he expects three or four rate cuts this year -- will determine just how strong the economy and the housing market are this year. Still, he thinks a downturn for the broad economy could actually help the real estate market. Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses last week's Securities and Exchange Commission approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, and how investors should size up the resulting boom of new cryptocurrency funds. In the Market Call, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management talks about global deep-value investing.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says that the market "is a bit out over its skis" in terms of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates and how many cuts will happen in 2024, but that may create volatility and determine whether there is another rally in the current cycle. Brusuelas says the economy is in the middle of a soft landing and keeps looking strong, which should mute or limit just how much slowing happens moving forward. Jeffrey Bierman, founder of The QuantGuy.com and chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, says the market is overextended and due for a "garden variety 10 percent correction," but there is room for investors to hunt and peck for opportunities. Also on the show, Aaron Filbeck of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association says that it's naive for investors to lump a wide range of mainstream investment options under the label of "alternative." Plus, Justin Carbonneau of Validea.com talks about the expert methodologies that are working the best in current conditions and how to build the ideas of money-management legends into your portfolio.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns with his annual forecasts for the stock market, the economy, the financial industry and more in the year ahead. He notes that the consensus for 2024 is a soft landing, but he thinks the lagged impact of everything that cause recessions -- massively higher interest rates, retail inventory levels rising, savings rates coming down and more -- will finally lead to a mild recession in the middle of this year. Doll also thinks that stocks could finish the year in the red. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of Vettafi turns to an actively managed short-term bond fund for his ETF of the Week, and Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, talks "beat and raise investing" in the Market Call.
Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248 Ventures -- formerly chief markets strategist at Ally Invest -- is optimistic that the stock market can avoid big troubles in 2024, and is looking for a "return to normal,' in terms of the market's breadth of movers and returns. still, she includes technology stocks -- typically considered an aggressive play -- as part of the defensive plans that investors should be making for the year ahead. She also talks about the norms she expects to see maintained in international investing and more. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com talks about his forecast for all types of interest rates in 2024, and while the rate picture is different from the market situation, he too is looking for more of a return to traditional expectations. In the Market Call, Leah Bennett, president of Westwood Wealth Management, talks stocks.
Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research is "very optimistic over the next 12 months" because the stock market's bounce since October "looks like the beginning of a bull market," with expanding breadth and economic indicators turning up to where indicators are bullish for stocks and bonds now. Pring makes an educated guess that the market could run up to 5,400 on the Standard & Poor's 500, but notes that if the indicators change -- which he would expect after the election next fall -- the bull market could end quickly. In The Big Interview, Alex McGrath, chief investment officer at NorthEnd Private Wealth, says that while the market has been rebounding, it hasn't ecaped concerns about a recession and about the future financial health of the consumer, so he's rotating into defensive positions and looking to be opportunistic in 2024. Also on the show, Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices discusses how companies got more cautious late in 2023 about committing to dividend increases. Plus, Nancy Prial of Essex Investment Management and the 1290 Essex Small Cap Growth Fund talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, makes it clear that she doesn't feel her firm's outlook for 2024 is "optimistic." Amid significant macroeconomic risks, Li says there are selective opportunities for investors who are willing to take the chance to put money to work, particularly in parts of the market that remain reasonable values -- notably artificial intelligence and big tenchology, which she expects to continue their strong performance from 2023 -- while avoiding parts of the market that are "priced for perfection" after the market's rally late in 2023. Also on the show, David Trainer at New Constructs puts Carvana back in "The Danger Zone," noting that the company remains a "zombie stock" -- one he expects could go to zero -- despite a strong bounceback in performance in 2023. In the Market Call, Simon Lack, managing partner at SL Advisors -- which oversees the American Energy Independence Index -- talks energy stocks, particularly midstream energy infrastructure stocks and the chance they represent to generate consistent gains now.
Veteran Wall Street observer Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, has been making 10 forecasts for the New Year for decades, but 2023 was one of the most difficult times he has ever had reading the tea leaves for the market and economy. He explains why as he looks back at his forecasts from a year ago and reviews what he got right and wrong and how conditions have changed; he will return to the show next week with his forecasts and predictions for 2024. Meanwhile, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, is looking forward, doing his annual forecast for the year ahead in closed-end funds, highlighted by his expectation that closed-end funds to outperform the general equity markets,In the Market Call, Raymond Bridges of the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF talks about being "aggressively cautious" in today's market conditions.
Rob Arnott, chairman and chief executive officer at Research Affiliates sees a recession as likely for late 2024, but expects the entire year to be dominated by domestic and geopolitics that create significant "left tail risk," the most extreme potential downside performance. It will be, he says, "a year of living dangerously," but he views current conditions "as a wonderful opportunity" to lean into value investing strategies. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi makes a call on currencies and Japan with his ETF of the Week, and Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, talks about ETF investment strategies in the Market Call.
John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Growth and Needham Aggressive Growth funds, says that despite the market's recent rally, there are plenty of smaller growth companies that represent good values with strong growth companies, though he also suggests that some of the large companies -- particularly in economy-driving industries like artificial intelligence and data storage -- have room to run too, which is why he's "not worried" about what the market will dish up this year. Also on the show, Manny Weintraub, principal at Cannell & Spears, discusses "super great stocks that are not going to kill you" in the Market Call, and Chuck reveals the 2023 results for his long-running "change experiment," where he saves everything under a $10 bill that comes his way in cash.
Bob Fraser, co-founder and chief financial officer at Aspen Funds, says the market has gotten excited and ahead of itself, so that it could spend the early part of the year mostly at a standstill, but he also doesn't see much downside risk, with neither a recession nor a crash in the offing. Ultimately, Fraser thinks the market will end the year up, though not as much as it gained in the year we just completed. Also on the show, subscription expert Robbie Kellman Baxter talks about how companies take steps to get consumers hooked and to make it hard for them to wriggle off of the regular payment cycle, and she offers tips for protecting yourself from subscription overload, plus Chuck makes his market and economic forecasts for the year ahead.
Long-time technical analyst Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors and Advisors Asset Management says that -- while many people look at the market's returns in January and expect them to dictate the year -- he believes the current rally is setting the stage for 2024, showing the market's resilience. He is re-setting support levels to the market's July summer highs, and he thinks that it will keep bouncing back, making the market outlook for the year ahead pretty solid. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, looks back at how the closed-end fund industry bounced back from the challenges of a terrible year in 2022, and how his forecasts from a year ago -- including his five funds for 2023 -- have played out. Plus, Chuck goes over his financial to-do list for the new year, 15 items that all savers, consumers and investors could take on to gain better control of their finances and to make more of their money.
Veteran money-manager Louis Navellier, president of Navellier & Associates, says he hasn't seen "a real blow-out year since '99; I think we're overdue for one of those kind of years." He says that the market currently is grossly undervalued relative to interest rates and he says that small cap stocks could go up "100 percent or more," but he is also calling for a strong year for big stocks, oil and energy companies and he says the Magnificent Seven stocks are likely to keep rolling. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi turns to small-cap -- but a specialized small-company fund that focuses on dividend payers while trying to mute volatility -- as his ETF of the Week, and James Royal discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey showing that more than half of Americans sought out financial advice in 2023, though they didn't all turn to good sources to get it.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says there will be some damage to the economy -- worse than a soft landing -- but she thinks the economy can put off recession until at least 2025. Hooper says the new year should be an improving year for consumers with real wage growth rising as the disinflationary process continues; she thinks that improvement will cause an increase in spending, with the trigger being interest-rate cuts which she expects to start in the second quarter. Also on the show, Dan Griffith, director of wealth strategy at Huntington Private Bank, taks about the "tax sunset" and how investors and consumers want to start thinking now about rules that are changing at the end of 2024, because there will be a segment of the population -- particularly the wealthy -- who will pay a penalty if they are caught unaware of how rules will revert to past standards barring action from Congress. Plus Chuck talks about the systems he has used for setting annual goals and how it is better to set goals than make resolutions if you want to make real change in your life in the year ahead.
Mary Ellen Stanek, co-chief investment officer at Baird Advisors -- a firm known best for bond investing -- says the Federal Reserve has delivered better than expected results, and while there is plenty of expectation of a reasonably soft landing, buckle up and protect your portfolio because volatility won't be going away even as the economy and the market revert to their long-term historical trends for key indicators like growth, inflation and more. With just days left on the 2023 calendar, Kelly Lannan discusses Fidelity's annual resolution survey, which shows that struggles with inflation have more people looking at setting financial goals this year, although many may have lowered their sights in picking targets for the year ahead. Plus, hedge-fund manager Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Avi Gilburt, founder of the Elliott Wave Trader, expects the stock market to reach new highs, but thinks the current rally will carry to those record levels by no later than the second quarter of 2024, after which he says "a bear market is going to be in our future." Additionally, he says there will be a banking crisis that is part of the bear market, notig that systemic issues with the banking system will create trouble that "will likely be worse than what we saw in 2008," when troubles in the financials sector were cornerstone to the Great Financial Crisis. Brenda Langenfeld, portfolio manager for Nuveen, says that banking environment will actually create opportunities for investors in preferred securities, noting that heightened banking regulatory oversight will be favorable for credit investors, that positive fundamentals suggest stability and growth and that valuations are at levels "that present a capital appreciation opportunity over the next year." Also on the show: Charles Rotblut discusses the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which shows levels of bullishness at their highest levels in more than two and a half years, and portfolio manager Francisco Bido of F/m Acceleration brings his quant-active investment style to the Market Call.
Legendary bond fund manager Dan Fuss -- the vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. -- says that while the Federal Reserve was "caught and delayed" in responding to inflation, he gives them "a whole lot of credit" for pulling the economy out of the doldrums while avoiding a crash, noting that this central bank's performance is among the most impressive for any central bank he has watched in his 60-plus year career. Fuss says the market is "fund, it is one of the most impressive accomplishments he has seen from the central bankers. Fuss expects the yield curve the return to normal, but he says long rates will not come down as much as investors might expect. He remains positive on U.S. markets, though he says stocks look pricy and the bond market is fundamentally solid, albeit thinner than it has been due to higher rates, a situation he expects to change once the Fed begins cutting rates in 2024. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on the state of 60-40 portfolios today; it's a follow-up question from an answer Chuck gave the same listener in April of 2021, at a point when investors were giving up on balanced portfolios ahead of changes int he rate cycle that have snice made the fixed-income portion of a mixed portfolio look much better. In the Market Call, Brian James, director of investments at Ullmann Wealth Partners, makes his debut talking funds and ETFs
Garry Evans, chief asset allocation strategist at BCA Research, expects a recession in 2024 but says that the Federal Reserve has eased conditions enough that it will happen later in the year and likely will be mild. Still, he says the risk is that inflation is not really dead, and what happens if it starts to re-ignite. As a result, he is hedging against inflation and while he would like to use gold to do it -- although he notes it is "a hedge against central banks turning too dovish," and not a hedge on gold -- he is suggesting that the high price of precious metals makes it that he favors TIPs [Treasury inflation-protected securities]. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses recent research on the retirement outlook for women. The Center's latest report shows more than half of the 3,000 women surveyed feel they don't have enough income to save for retirement, and less than one in five are very confident that they will be able to fully retire with a comfortable lifestyle. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., talks big-name, mega-cap brand-name stocks and how a focus on quality keeps "blue chips from turning into cow chips."
Jon Wolfenbarger, founder and chief executive officer at BullAndBearProfits.com says he foresees a market downturn of 60 percent in the next year or two, and that it could be down 50 percent from current levels a decade from now. Wolfenbarger bases that forecast on valuation levels "that are the highest they have been in history, higher than they were in 1929" or at the peak of the tech bubble. Wolfenbarger says a recession is coming soon if it hasn't already started, and that economic conditions will deteriorate from here based on indicators that are showing that trouble is about to hit home. Also on the show, Jason Callan, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments -- manager of the Columbia Strategic Income Fund -- says in the Big Interview that the economy still has some consequences to pay for the protracted inversion in the yield curve and how to position portfolios now that the Federal Reserve has indicated that it is likely to stop hiking rates but hasn't given more than mild ints about when it will begin cutting them. Plus, Rebecca Edwards discusses a Safewise study showing that Americans are worried about porch piracy for real reasons, notably that they will lose billions of dollars to thefts made at their doors -- and Chuck answers a listener's question about his take for the year ahead.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer for The Leuthold Group, says the stock market's recent rally most likely pushes the economic cycle out by a month or two, but he says that the amount of tightening that is already in place and the impacts of the inverted yield curve hitting the economy will finally come to roost in economic fallout that "down the road is going to be severe." Ramsey expects a recession in the first half of 2024, and has a lot of economic data that he suggests support that conclusion. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder/president of New Constructs, heads to "The Danger Zone" for one final time in 2023, noting that investors who think the market rally has removed all pressure from stocks are wrong. In The Market Call, Tom Hancock of GMO -- manager of the new GMO U.S. Quality ETF -- talks about what makes a quality stock and how to use those issues in a portfolio.
Bryan Cannon, chief portfolio strategist at Cannon Advisors, says we're in a secular bull market right now, but he notes that a secular bear -- usually not recognizable until it's in the rearview mirror -- could be close, because "you've never had inflation without a secular bear market." Cannon expects the current rally to continue into the new year, but he notes the charts and the trends could change along with the calendar, making it hard to read 2024. Also on the show, Sarah Foster discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that some 60 percent of Americans say that their income has not kept pace with inflation. In The NAVigator segment, Adam Sparkman -- part of the team running the Thornburg Income Builder Opportunity Trust -- says "it's a different menu within fixed income entering 2024 than it was a couple of years ago," which has him increasing credit quality, taking less risk and lengthening maturity as we start seeing how potential rate cuts take shape. Plus Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at Nixon Peabody Trust Co., talks stocks and funds/ETFs in the Market Call.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management -- president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute -- says the market's current rally has it ahead of where it should be, and he expects a slowdown both for the economy and the stock market early in 2024, lasting until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and stimulates the economy, kicking off a strong second half of the year. In discussing Wells Fargo's outlook for 2024, Cronk recommends that investors keep some dry powder waiting for that inflection point. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi looks to a genomics fund that has been a bit out of favor for his ETF of the Week, noting that he thinks the fund and the area it invests in are ready for a takeoff. Plus, Glenn Tompkins, senior global market strategist at VectorVest makes his debut in the Market Call, and Chuck has a surprise extra segment based on the day's headlines.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management -- the nation's largest crypto index fund manager -- says that cryptocurrency has historically moved in four-year cycles, with a big move upwards followed by a big reset. Last year, when crypto suffered losses bigger than the down market, was the setback; now crypto assets are in the recovery phase -- which he says most investors aren't paying attention to -- setting up "a significant and sustained bull run in crypto." Also on the show, Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer, KraneShares -- the editor of ChinaLastNight.com -- says that a four-year losing streak in China has positioned the market there as a global value play, noting that he thinks many investors are lost in the headlines over trade concerns and focusing portfolios on the "very crowded trade" of U.S. markets rather than eyeing the potential for an economic turnaround/comeback in China. In the Market Call, portfolio manager Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management, talks about the firm's earnings-consistency purview in picking stocks.
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says that at surface levels it looks "like the Fed will stick the soft landing," but he notes that the markets "are primed and priced for that," and if the central bank falls short on its goals and inflation is more persistent than expected, that could be where trouble shows up for the stock market. Timmer says that part of his outlook on the Federal Reserve is that many of the conditions that lead to recession have played out, but have happened in fits and starts, allowing the economy to get through trouble without, on the whole, falling into a full recession. He expects that to continue -- at least delaying any recession if not postponing it indefinitely -- as the economy works through its remaining trouble spots. Also on the show, Toni Turner, president of TrendStar Group, says she expects the market to challenge new highs during a Santa Claus rally, though she does expect the market "to pull into a rest stop soon." Plus, David Snowball, founder of MutualFundObserver.com, talks mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, says that while he believes the Federal Reserve is done increasing interest rates, it's not yet close to cutting them, and investors will want to lock in good returns for the longer term, so he is starting to lengthen maturities now to protect against reinvestment risk. Rosen notes that he does not currently expect a severe economic downturn in 2024, because he doesn't see the major imbalances or problems that typically cause a recession. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study which shows that holiday tipping -- annual gifts to service workers people see regularly rather than the kind of tipping that happens in restaurants -- is on the rise this season, despite economic conditions which would seem to motivate pullbacks, David Trainer of New Constructs weighs in on energy -- the top sector for stocks right now -- and real estate (the worst) in The Danger Zone, and Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, talks about "growth at a reasonable price" investing in the Market Call.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that "higher for longer is not a strategy," which means that the Federal Reserve is setting up investors for a longer-lasting fallout than investors expect now. As a result, Merk says that the downside risk of the market right now is much greater than the upside potential now. Jeff Bishop of Raging Bull and Bullseye Trades sees the market as taking a small setback before the start of a Santa Claus rally that carries into the New Year, portending a strong year ahead for the market in 2024. Plus, Mike Taggart, closed-end fund specialist at Aberdeen, says that discounts in closed-end funds are "overplayed," and that investors who focus instead on income will likely be happier with the long-term outcome from their investments, and Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jay Jacobs, U.S. Head of Thematic and Active Equity ETFs at BlackRock, says in The Big Interview that artificial intelligence will move from the early stage where people are investing because they love the concept into its commercialization phase where investors are attracted by the profits as they see new technologies emerge and start to take hold in 2024. Among his other investment themes for the year ahead, medical innovation, which he also expects to be helped along by the use of AI. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi looks at what's glittering now with his ETF of the Week, Will Hansen of the Plan Sponsor Council of America discusses the group’s 66th Annual Survey of Profit Sharing and 401(k) Plans, which shows that Americans' have cut back on savings with the end of pandemic-driven stimulus dollars, and Amber Fairbanks of Impax Asset Management -- co-manager of the firm's new Global Social Leaders fund -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, sees a series of rolling recession hitting certain sectors and industries in 2024, but does not see a broad-based, classic and deep recession akin to one triggered by the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He's not alone in suggesting the economy can escape next year without a recession, as Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments says in the Market Call that he believes the stock market and economy are strong enough to put off a widespread and meaningful downturn for another year. Plus, the show starts with Jamila Soufrant, discussing her new book "Your Journey to Financial Freedom: A Step-by-Step Guide to Achieving Wealth and Happiness" and she offers some advice for listeners, no matter where they are on their own journey toward financial independence.
John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that both stocks and bonds are relatively cheap right now, noting that if you back out the companies that have led the market this year -- the so-called "Magnificent Seven" -- stocks are trading at about 14 times earnings, which is a discount to where the market has been since the 1950s. Petrides says the biggest issues for 2024 will be whether the Federal Reserve can stick the landing without throwing the economy into recession and the outcome of the presidential election, but he doesn't think either of those will necessarily derail the market, with trouble more likely to arrive later in the year. Also on the show, Robin Saks Frankel discusses a recent USA Today Blueprint study showing that parents are supporting adult children to the tune of $718, on average, per month, long-time options trader Tony Saliba of Liquid Mercury makes his debut on the show talking technical analysis, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says the best situation for the economy and market is 'a continuation of the roll through,' where rolling recessions allow some sectors to rebound while current weakness plays out. Sonders notes that while others include the presidential election cycle into their thinking, she doesn't put much emphasis on the election especially when there are constraints -- like debt, deficit and interest costs -- that make it hard for politicians to make any needle-moving actions. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer looks at understated profits, and offers up a stock where investors are at risk of missing out on a strong buying opportunity. In the Market Call, Andrew Graham, founder / portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, talks stocks.
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that rolling recessions haven't eliminated the possibility of a true, classic recession but she doesn't think there will be anything more than a shallow downturn in 2024 as the economy continues slowing to resolve inflation and other headline issues. She expects stocks to deliver "a comfortable return" in 2024, but with volatility and a "healthy" move toward equilibrium. Don Vandenbord, chief investment officer at Revere Asset Management, makes his debut on the show talking technicals and notes that short-term trends are all strong and that the market's recent run shows that performance is broadening out, which is a bullish sign. He sees mostly positives, although the longest-term indicators he follows have not yet turned fully green. Axel Merk of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that gold prices are most tightly correlated to "the confidence the market has in the central bank to manage inflation over time," so gold's rally over the last six weeks -- as well as its path forward -- is "favorable because we might be entering a recession, most notably a recession that is more severe than is currently priced into the market." Plus Brian Bollinger of Simply Safe Dividends talks quality income-producing stocks in the Market Call.
Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says that the stock market "is a couple of hundred points ahead of where we should be," which means there's not a lot of upside here, but he does expect the factors driving the market to keep shifting away from growth and more towards value stocks. He says value and international stocks move together, and he expects them to turn positive now as value, international and small-cap stocks have been oversold. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi says there is no place like home, and no sector like home builders. And in the Market Callm Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Investment Partners talks about using macro factors to guide asset-allocation decisions before applying fundamentals and a bottoms-up approach to pick actual investments.
Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says the stock market currently is priced for perfection that is unlikely to happen, noting that there has never been a time when the economy has slowed down but earnings have increased, but with consensus earnings growth estimates running in double digits, something appears to be off-kilter now. That makes Dover cautious on stocks, though he acknowledges that dividend-paying stocks and slow-and-steady stocks should be solid performers. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, discusses the firm's 40th annual Christmas Price Index, comparing inflation in the broad economy to the price hikes that someone faces if they try to buy all the gifts in "The 12 Days of Christmas." And in the Market Call, Roger Conrad of Conrad’s Utility Investor talks about income-producers in utility and energy companies, REITs and more.
Two different analysts -- looking at the economy and market from varying viewpoints -- agree on today's show that there is trouble ahead for the stock market and economy in 2024, and that the election cycle -- which historically holds that presidential election years are good times for the market -- isn't going to be able to keep trouble at bay until 2025. Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's actions have postponed recession and a reasonably soft landing into 2024, but notes that he is looking for safe havens in bonds -- where he is looking longer term despite the inverted yield curve -- to ride out troubles. Meanwhile, Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that he expects a few more months of solid markets, particularly in large-cap stocks, before things turn and start a widespread decline that should start late in 2024 and that could last into 2026. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about finding ways to save more.
It's Cyber Monday and Chuck offers an alternative to the usual gift-buying pattern by talking about how savers and investors can now give gifts of stock easily and efficiently, teaching children and young adults like-long lessons about saving and investing. Moreover, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com stops by and discusses gifts from the past that haven't worked out so well, based on the site's research showing that Americans routinely have gift cards they have not used. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch of Hirsch Holdings returns to the show to discuss the latest edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac, and we revisit a recent conversation with Brad Lamensdorf of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report.
Clyde McGregor, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Equity and Income fund -- who is retiring at the end of the year -- returns to Money life noting that one of his former partners liked to say that "The hardest time to invest is always right now." That's how he feels today, with stocks feeling expensive and with so much money piled into the top stocks in the big indexes -- because past times when there was that concentration have played out poorly for the broad market -- but he notes that his fund is moving out of growthier companies he bought on sale last year to stocks that have done poorly this year but which are positioned for good returns moving forward. Celebrating Black Friday the Money Life way, Chuck goes discount shopping in closed-end funds with John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors -- chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance -- examining three funds to determine whether big current discounts represent a real deal, an average play or a fake-out. Plus, Maya Corbic, author of “From Piggy Banks to Stocks: The Ultimate Guide for a Young Investor” discusses the need and the right way to teach children about money.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says that the stock market is right on track with expected calendar effects, which he sees as continuing through a Santa Claus rally and a positive January Barometer -- which portends a good year ahead for 2024. Further, citing the history of election-year market patterns, Hirsch says he expects the market to stay strong during 2024, holding off a recession and a bear market until 2025. That would be in keeping with classic election-cycle patterns. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, looks toward international small caps -- an area that has recovered to where the trend is turning positive -- for his ETF of the Week, and Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring and Rozencwajg talks natural resources and commodities investing in an extended Big Interview.
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says a recession is likely for 2024, which will create some market pain as it extinguishes "the final embers of inflation which aren't burned out yet, namely wage growth." Schutte expects the market to struggle but notes that conditions are great for fixed income, though he warns against investors hiding in the short-end of the yield curve because rates will start to change next year, and investors who are focused on making the highest yield now will wind up facing reinvestment risk once the yield curve flattens or reverses its current inversion. Meanwhile, talking technicals, Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF says the market is due for "a scary moment" likely in the spring or the summer of 2024, when there is a value reset. Lamensdorf notes that "We don't need a recession to have a 20 or 25 percent correction and I think one of those probably is due next year at some point, after we get out of this seasonably-favorable period." Plus, Benjamin Bailey of the Praxis Impact Bond fund gives his take on the fixed-income market, and sustainable bond investing.
George Kinder, president of The Kinder Institute of Life Planning and one of the leading lights in the financial planning industry, talks about his new initiative, "Fiduciary in All Things," which seeks to apply a fiduciary standard to more than just money relationships. While most stripes of financial adviser have an obligation to act as a fiduciary -- meaning they put the client's interest ahead of their own -- Kinder believes a straightforward golden-rule like standard cold help restore civility in politics and society, would make consumers happy and would make politicians more interested in serving their voters than being reelected by them. Also on the show, Lily Vittayarukskul, chief executive officer at Waterlily -- which won the FinTech competition at the recent FinCon conference -- discusses the real costs of long-term care and how families making care decisions need to think beyond insurance to do a thorough analysis, plus Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com returns to the show to answer another question from a listener.
Financial journalist Allan Sloan, a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award -- business journalism's highest honor -- discusses his recent Fast Company column sizing up just how much money Elon Musk and his investors have lost in his dalliance with Twitter, and while the huge losses won't impact Musk's net worth, how bad deals like this do impact real people and ordinary investors who fall for the hype of a successful entrepreneur. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investments, returns to the show discussing closed-end funds and the massive discounts on muni funds -- currently at roughly 13.5 percent, compared to a historic average of about 4 percent -- and what has to happen for investors to profit from those discounts narrowing. Also returning to the show, Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, who today discusses "The Women's Guide to Successful Investing,” which she recently updated with a second edition. Plus, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to answer another question from a Money Life listener.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Investments, says rate volatility has driven most market activity this year, and now the stock market is pricing in interest rate cuts toward the end of 2024. He thinks that timing is about right, but he notes that the market's fortunes for next year will rest almost entirely on the Federal Reserve, with the market understanding that the central bank has "reserved the right to be tougher here. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi has his ETF of the Week, and the VCR he's discussing is not the one gathering dust in your basement, economist Lawrence Marsh discusses his book "Money Flow in a Dynamic Economy," and how changes in the way money is moving have altered the picture for both the country and the world -- and how further changes could solve many of those problems -- plus Stan Haithcock "Stan the Annuity Man" returns to answer a personal question from Chuck about whether to take a lump-sum buyout offer on an old pension or to stick with the structured payout plan.
T. Rowe Price issued its outlook for 2024 on Tuesday and Blerina Uruci, the firm's chief US economist, says that while she expects slower growth, "but I am not seeing a red flag here that indicates a recession is in the cards." She notes that forecasting has become harder in the post-COVID environment, making the margin for error higher, especially with the Federal Reserve still having work to do to bring inflation down, which "will keep uncertainty elevated for 2024." Uruci expects respectable growth, job growth and a low unemployment rate to create "a benign environment" for stocks and bonds. Also on the show, Len Estabrooks, owner of West Bridgewater Coin and Jewelry -- who Chuck and Gail went to when they sold some old jewelry and coins in September -- talks about the nuances of the cash-for-gold business, there's a Book Interview with Patrick Fisher, co-author of “The Compound Code: An Expert Guide to Trading Stocks and Options,” and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to answer questions from the Money Life audience.
David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large-Cap and Small-Cap Financial Funds, says the struggle for banks will be "what's going to happen on the credit side as these loans re-price with the higher rates." Ellison says the economy's current strength is a function of what has happened over the last three decades, which has made the economy "stronger than people believe it is," which is why indicators like the inverted yield curve may not be accurate and functional now. Also on the show, Jennifer Burns, author of "Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative," discusses the legendary economist and his lasting impact on how today's leaders view the world, Stan Haithcock -- Stan the Annuity Man -- talks about how annuities perform and how attractive they should be to investors and savers in a higher-rate economy, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the efficacy of 60-40 portfolios, and how to allocate money around a core of target-date investments..
Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says he expects a choppy market through the first half of 2024, but says the market won't uncork an ugly bear market without a significant recession, which he does not currently expect. That said, the volatility and the economic conditions should help the "SHUT stocks" -- staples, health care, utilities and telecom -- which are defensive, dividend-oriented plays, currently "the most oversold they have ever been." If interest rates drop and dividend payers get a boost from investors seeking yield, Clissold believes defensive plays will have a strong rebound. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com discusses the year-end tax considerations investors should be thinking about now, David Trainer of New Constructs comes up with a Thanksgiving turkey, revisiting a Danger Zone pick that has gone all the way to zero and another pick that seems headed for bankruptcy, and Sam Huisache discusses a Clever Real Estate study showing that housing prices in states that have legalized recreational cannabis use are higher and rising faster than property values in states in which marijuana remains illegal.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that the "hurricane" of bad economic numbers investors expected in 2023 could be a "gale force wind" in 2024, which is "something we can adjust to," which should help keep an economic downturn to a modest amount of time. Still, Ablin says that the technology sector is trading at 47 percent premium on a relative forward P/E basis to the rest of the Standard and Poor's 500, and history suggests that condition will lead to mediocre performance over the next 12 months. In The NAVigator segment, Eric Purington of the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Income Fund, says mega-mergers involving oil giants Exxon and Chevron have implications for middle-market and midstream energy companies and infrastructure companies, because they show that larger energy companies are poised to make big investments in smaller firms, and the deals have opened the door to other mergers at all levels of the industry. Plus, in the Market Call, Dan Ives of the Wedbush ETFMG Global Cloud Technology ETF talks artificial-intelligence and cloud computing companies.
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that America remains the best country in the world to do business in, which is going to maintain "a basement" that the economy will not slip past when it loses some steam early next year. "The consumer has assets and has jobs, and those two things will keep the economy doing all right," he says in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, pursues really big dividends with his pick for the ETF of the Week. Claire Martin Tellis discusses a Preply.com survey showing that higher salaries don't always lead to the best job satisfaction, but lower salaries do tend to involve work that's boring. Plus, in the Market Call, Derek Izuel, chief investment officer at Shelton Capital Management, talks stocks.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says the domestic stock market "Has to go down a lot more from here to be considered at fair value," which is why he has more money working in international stocks, particularly in Japan, where markets are more fairly valued and central bankers have not had to tighten up monetary policy the way the Federal Reserve has had to in the U.S. He gives his most optimistic, pessimistic and realistic look-aheads to 2024. Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, goes off the news on his recent story about banks suddenly and unexpectedly closing down some consumer accounts without warning, leaving surprised customers at a loss and struggling to pay bills, make payrolls and more. In the Market Call, Chris Retzler of the Needham Small-Cap Growth fund discusses the struggles that smaller companies have had in a market dominated by a few big names.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that the economic downturn everyone saw as happening this year wound up being postponed for solid economic reasons, but it hasn't been canceled and more likely just pushed back into 2024. Luschini says investors should be defensive, taking advantage of higher bond yields and not being sucked into low valuations on international investments, staying balanced but not too aggressive until the economy and market are on more solid ground. His forecast for a 2024 recession is in keeping with that of D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, who says the market's technicals suggest that Santa Claus will be bringing a rally to town before the year ends, but that the New Year is likely to bring a recession that may be harder than most people expect after so much back and forth this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Eric Schoenstein of Jensen Investment Management talks about using quality as a factor in selecting growth stocks.
Frank Holmes, chief executive at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes interest rates have peaked, and that the economy will turn around in six months as rates start to fall, but he also believes there is plenty to carry the stock market in the short-term with the Santa Claus rally propping things up by year's end as gas prices start falling, with rate cuts also coming then to help boost the economy and the recovery. Also on the show, David Trainer, president of New Constructs revisits some "zombie stocks" that are less dangerous than in the past, but where their "good news" is not much cause for celebration. Plus Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses the Weird Financial News.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says he believes the Federal Reserve has finished hiking rates, even though it hasn't announced it. He looks at the clues in chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, and notes that this inflection point has bond yields at a great spot, noting "I can't remember a time when the real yield was as attractive as it is now." He's not the only one seeing opportunity in bonds, as Willie Delwiche of HiMount Research talks technicals and sees headwinds ahead for the stock market late in the year due to economic pressures that he expects to hit home early in 2024, but noting that bonds are poised for a long-term rally if/when interest rates start dropping. Also on the show, Steven Perry of XA Investments discusses the growth in non-listed closed-end funds and how they offer all investors -- including those without a lot of money -- the chance to get into asset classes that previously were reserved for the super wealthy and the big institutions and, in the Market Call, Rob Spivey of Valens Research talks about his firm's accounting-based methods for analyzing stocks.
BJ Webster, chief investment officer at Alera Group Wealth Management, says he does not expect the economy to have a hard landing, and while there will be discomfort, investors will survive a downturn and will see slower growth that brings down interest rates, which in turn will help to give a boost to any subsequent recovery. Webster notes that if the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates while other central banks are continuing to raise interest rates, international markets might benefit from the resulting weaker dollar, as well as current valuations that are better than on domestic stocks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a young high-yield fund for his ETF of the Week, Chuck puts a bow on his annual Halloween cash-or-candy, trade-or-treat fun, and Sam Burns of Mill Street Research talks stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
Peter Crane, president of Crane Data -- which publishes the Money Fund Intelligence newsletter tracking the performance of money market mutual funds -- says that high interest rates should have investors thinking about where to park and protect their cash, and to treat their cash holdings as an asset rather than an after-thought in the investment plan. He also discusses the likely path of money fund rates based on the Fed's moves. In The Book Interview, Victor Haghani, co-author of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions," discusses how bad financial choices have wiped out countless family fortunes that would have grown massive had they just been managed smartly. In the Market Call, George Villere, co-manager of Villere Equity and Villere Balanced funds, talks small- and mid-cap investing.
Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says that the market is showing signs of breakdown, and while you can still find one or two indicators that are positive, the bearish signs are out and suggesting that there's a downturn coming, though he thinks the decline will stop short of being a "hard landing." Also on the show, Roraj Pradhananga, director of research at Veris Wealth Partners, a sustainable investment firm, talks about how current global conflicts are impacting markets, notably the energy sector, and how that is impacting the sustainable, renewable energy companies versus the fossil-fuel companies. Plus, Lester Jones discusses the results of the Business Conditions survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, and Chuck answers a listener's question about how to bring money lessons to Halloween for a family that doesn't get trick-or-treating traffic so that they can't replicate Chuck's "cash or candy" holiday celebration.
Brij Khurana, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management, says he expects the Federal Reserve to pause in its rate hiking cycle at its meeting this week, though that doesn't mean there won't be another rate increase at the next meeting if conditions warrant it. And under current conditions, Khurana says he is frequently asked why to go with bonds when cash can generate nice returns in bank certificates of deposit, to which he notes that bond prices are cheap right now, making this an ideal time to consider lengthening maturities as the Fed is looking at moving to the next phase of the rate cycle. Also on the show, Greg McBride talks about the latest BankRate.com study showing that Americans know they need to save more for emergencies, but are actually saving less, particularly when inflation is factored in, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts a mutual fund whose manager has been a guest on the show many times, into "The Danger Zone," noting that it has a high preponderance of dangerous stocks, and Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, goes looking for cash producers in the Money Life Market Call.
Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, says the economy is somewhere between a soft and hard landing, but that anyone expecting a mild recession should watch for it to last about nine months, but with the market bottoming out typically a few months before the recession ends, investors will want to stay the course through the bear market trough, rather than moving into cash to get the high current yields and play defense. With lower expected stock returns and improved bond returns, Hetts says riding out a balanced portfolio should provide both safety and growth potential. Also on the show, Cheryl Pate of the Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust says the banking industry's wild ride since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March has created a strong opportunity for bank debt to outperform moving forward, Natalie Trevithick of Payden and Rygel discusses the investment-grade corporate bond market ad when investors will want to start pursuing longer-duration bonds, and Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel talks technical analysis and what it means that the Nasdaq technically moved into correction territory on Thursday.
Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says he expects a recession at the start of next year, but he's not nervous about it because much of the damage is already priced in and the downturn is likely to last six months, rather than the 10 months of an average recession. Moreover, with the stock market typically bottoming four to six months before a recession ends, Adam says investors may want to be buying in while the downturn is in mid-swing. Adam currently favors technology, energy, health care and financials. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, brings back a long-running fund powerhouse as his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about inflation-protected savings bonds -- with the new I-bond inflation rate having just been announced -- and absolute-value manager Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
David Goerz, chief executive officer at Strategic Frontier Management, says it seems "like we're muddling along at zero and sometimes we're in recession and sometimes we're not." It feels like a recession, he notes -- and it has had almost all of the key statistics at various times -- but without the unemployment issue or any big stock market correction. Goerz expects lower growth for the market moving forward, and urges safety and defense in building portfolios now. Also on the show, Tracey Spivey of the business tax services group at KPMG discusses how investors who have benefited from higher interest rates and leaned into the better yields available from fixed income investments are setting themselves up for an unpleasant tax surprise next year; plus Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners, talks brand-name companies in the Market Call.
Money Life wraps up the 20 interviews of FinCon. A gathering of financial content creators and fin-tech entrepreneurs held in New Orleans last week - with Benjamin Nadelstein of Monetary Metals talking about how to generate yield on your gold holdings, Logan Smyth of the TRADR Market Analytics app on technical analysis, Kalilah Reynolds discussing the ups and downs of the Jamaican Stock Market, Jenni Sisson on how inflation is hitting the foot soldiers of the home front, and Joe Saul-Sehy of the Stacking Benjamins on the good and bad of financial content creation in today's tough economic environment.
It's the third day of interviews taped at FinCon in New Orleans -- an annual gathering of financial content creators -- and one big focus of the conversations is inflation. That will be a big part of conversations today, when the interviews start with Jen Smith of the Frugal Friends podcast, moving into a chat with Scott Carson from The Note Closers Show and -- after a break to talk personal finance with David Zaegel from the Retire With Confidence podcast -- inflation is a big part of the talk with John Blizzard, head of CDValet.com, a site that helps consumers with certificates of deposit. The show concludes with conversations with Clifton Corbin, a financial educator and author of "Your Kids, Their Money," and Paula Pant of the Afford Anything podcast, who discusses why so many Americans are upset over inflation and financial conditions at a time when they actually have it pretty good.
It's Day Two of Money Life at FinCon, and Chuck again explores the rich tapestry of the financial world talking about the business of podcasting with Virginia Elder of Podcast Abundance, improving the financial awareness and habits in the Hispanic culture with financial educator Dario Martinez of Sal de la Olla, stock investing with CPA Mark Roussin -- the "Dividend Seeker" on YouTube -- the financial difficulties and differences of America's service men and women with Lacey Langford of the Military Money Show, and the ways that taxes can impact and delay retirement with "FITaxGuy" Sean Mullaney. Plus, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance reviews a rough third quarter in closed-end funds in The NAVigator.
Money Life goes to the Fin Con Expo this week, with Chuck in New Orleans at the annual gathering of financial content creators, which is a mix of bloggers, podcasters, freelance writers, fin tech companies and forward-thinking financial minds, and you will hear from Preston Yadegar of Shareholder Vote Exchange (a company helping investors sell the votes on their shares), David Edey of the Executor Help podcast, Anthony Rushing of First Loan HELOC (which is working to help investors use credit lines to replace mortgages to save on home ownership and interest costs), and fraud expert Kathy Stokes of AARP. Plus, every Thursday starts with the ETF of the Week, and Tom Lydon of VettaFi does something he has not done in the history of Money Life, namely pick a fund that is NOT an ETF, though it has aspirations -- and hopes -- of being one someday.
For years, Chuck has offered the kids in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, to decide between a trade or a treat. Every Halloween, however, Chuck tweaks the game, making a few subtle changes to keep things interesting for him and the kids. This year, he is changing something he never expected to change, ever, and he talks about how Halloween will work at his house -- and maybe yours if you follow suit -- come Oct. 31. Plus, Andrew Krei, co-chief investment officer at Crescent Grove Advisors, talks about how the higher-for-longer rate environment -- coupled with the narrow stock market -- has given investors an opportunity to reposition and rebalance portfolios to play defense while being compensated with better yields, but he does warn that there may be more maneuvering to do once rates start to fall again. Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree discusses record credit-card rates and the alarming number of lenders now issuing cards with a 29.99 percent rate or higher. In the Market Call, Tom McIntyre of McINtyre Freedman and Flynn -- the first-ever Market Call guest in the history of the show -- returns to discuss where current events have him investing now.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says the stock market hit a key support level at the beginning of October, which typically has been triggering market rebounds. As a result, he sees current conditions as a "low-risk, high opportunity" place to put money to work in the market now. Mary Ryan, senior wealth advisor at The Vanguard Group, discusses the firm's research showing that investors who have the option of contributing to a health-savings account can goose their long-term investment returns by prioritizing the HSA, rather than thinking of it solely as a savings account to pay for medical costs. She suggests that savers turn to HSAs higher in their priority list for savings, just behind getting the free money of an employer's matching monies, but ahead of additional retirement-plan contributions and Roth IRAs. Plus, Allison Hadley covers a survey by AllStarHome.com on the financial impacts of living at home or in their hometown, and Gerry Frigon of Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about buying growth stocks in the Market Call.
Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer at ICON Advisers and the ICON Funds, says that he's not seeing the overpricing you'd expect at a market peak or the bargains visible in typical market bottoms, so he expects the market to "drift higher" over the next six to nine months. But those gains will be led by different stocks and sectors than what drove the market to gains earlier this year. Callahan says the market has turned since May 31, with energy leading, and economically sensitive areas like financials have been strong too; "that really narrow market that we didn't think made sense, it ended May 31st" he said. "We're in a new market now." Also on the show, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs revisits a stock that has been in the Danger Zone for years, but that has rebounded well this year to set up the next round of troubles, John Cabble of J.D. Power discusses the firm's latest look into payment patterns and looks at the deteriorating credit situation for most Americans, and Bob Olstein, founder and chief investment officer at Olstein Capital Management discusses stock investing in the Market Call.
Brian Andrew, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, sees more potential negative economic outcomes than positive ones, ranging from a likely recession to possible stagflation, which should keep investors cautious but looking for opportunities in the year ahead. While he worries about the troubles ahead -- particularly with two wars in the world right now -- Andrew says he does not expect a deep global recession, but something more isolated and affecting some pockets of the market -- like interest-rate sensitive businesses -- harder than the rest. Also on the showm, harder than others. Roxanna Islam of VettaFi discusses how ETFs that buy closed-end funds have held up in a year when closed-end funds have delivered high yields but low total returns and seen widening discounts. Dan Passarelli, founder/chief executive, Market Taker Mentoring says the market is currently stuck between its 50 and 200 day moving averages, which makes movement hard to determine but which is creating short-term volatility conditions that are favorable for traders. Plus Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at TortoiseEcofin, talks about hwo dividend-hungry investors are going to find what they want moving forward in the energy sector.
Nate Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, says that the strength of domestic stocks has been such that they are overpriced relative to international issues, which is why he has been light on U.S. equities of late. Thooft expects equity conditions to change at some point in the next year as a recession sets in, bringing with it "value destruction" that . Once that happens and there's been some "value destruction," it will be time to be more excited about stocks, but particularly the domestic issues. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes an active-income strategy his ETF of the Week, Matt Brannon discusses research from Clever Real Estate showing that one in four Americans is falling deeper into credit-card debt each month, and Clark Kendall, president of Kendall Capital Management, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that stock valuations are running high right now, making it that "the compensation for equity isn't nearly as good as it has been for the better part of a decade," which has made fixed-income investments look like a better bargain. Moreover, while Sanchez is calling for a soft landing economically and believes that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, it is creating opportunities for bond investors now. Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at the Muhlenkamp Fund does the Market Call, noting that the fund has put some money to work in the six months since he was last on the show, but explaining why he's not fully invested now and doesn't expect to be for a while, and noting that individual investors might follow his lead. Plus, Russel Kinnel, director of manager research at Morningstar, discusses research showing how money flows into or out of funds after changes are made to the firm's medalist and star ratings, noting that while star ratings continue to have the biggest impact on fund flows, the medalist ratings -- done with the input of analysts instead of based entirely on quantitative measures -- are having a greater impact than in the past.
Patrick Luce, economist at ITR Economics, says that current economic trends are building a storm that will result in a depression in the 2030s, and a small recession next year, but he notes that investors should treat the 2024 decline as a buying opportunity, positioning themselves for the market to pick up before the big trouble comes in the next decade. And while Luce sees that big event damaging portfolios, he notes that prepared investors will build portfolios leading up to it, and be positioned to profit as the market rebounds out of it long-term. Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, returns to the show to discuss single-stock ETFs and the various flavors of them -- long, short and leveraged -- that his firm has unleashed and how investors should approach them. Also, Steven Benna of travel-insurance company Squaremouth discusses how travelers are expecting trip costs to be higher next year, and why those higher prices are not just about global inflation, and forensic accountant Tracy Coenen is back for the final installment of "Find Me The Money," talking about how anyone concerned about getting a fair share in divorce should also be looking at estate planning and other ways to make sure their families and heirs get their just due, especially in situations of second marriages and blended families.
Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, says that the current negativity around the bond market has hidden "the opportunity [longer-term investors] have been waiting for," noting that government and investment-grade corporate bonds are now delivering the kind of yield that -- after years of bonds paying nothing -- can help achieve long-term income goals. Gayle does not believe a recession is happening soon, but as consumers lose strength -- and they have since the start of the year -- and the impact of rising rates eventually hurt economic growth rates, the likelihood of trouble late next year or beyond increases. Also on the show, economist Jack Kleinhenz discusses the latest Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics -- released today -- showing that less than half of the surveyed economists expect a recession now. Plus David Trainer of New Constructs puts a stock in the Danger Zone that he thinks is due for a big miss during the upcoming earnings season, and Janet Brown of the FundX Upgrader Funds and the No-Load Fund*X newsletter, talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Matt Gertken, chief strategist, global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research, says that higher levels of leadership uncertainty lead to lower stock prices, and that the peak polarization in U.S. politics has taken the government's eyes off the ball when it comes to the actions of Russia and China, which could lead to policy mistakes and real costs on Americans in the global marketplace. Gertkin explains that the political gridlock is not all bad news for investors, noting that it restricts how far either side can go in blowing out the budget, but says that a recession is likely to lead to one party being swept into control. Jerremy Newsome of Real-Life Trading says the market's recent pullback "is a healthy rotation on the general broader uptrend of the markets," meaning that declines are buying opportunities because the market has room to run higher and is showing signs that it will, although much of that continuing rally may still be in mega-cap names. In The NAVigator segment, Robert Bush, director of closed-end products at Calamos Investments, says that discounts have widened to nearly 10 percent this year, and while closed-end funds haven't participated much in 2023's gains, they have become attractively priced, even though they are being challenged by many other investments when it comes to delivering good yields to investors. In the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor, The Independent Vanguard Adviser, talks about "buying the manager, not the fund" to build a portfolio.
Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, expects the economy to slow in 2024 -- resulting in "a growth recession" rather than a traditional full-blown economic meltdown -- likely staving off a major stock market decline. Rick says he has heard from more nervous bank and credit union top dogs who are scared about economic conditions than at any time in his 30 plus year career and he worries that a slowdown in lending could be a trigger for something bigger and worse than he currently expects. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman, VettaFi make a managed-futures fund his pick for ETF of the Week, Chuck talks the $1.2 billion Powerball jackpot from Wednesday night and why the lump-sum payment was one of the lowest any big-prize distributions in years, plus Brian Drubetsky -- manager of the Cullen Small Cap Value Strategy fund -- talks small- and mid-sized stocks in the Market Call.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that third-quarter earnings season is likely to be where the market turns the corner to get positive year-o-ver-year comparisons, which may help the market get past the hurdle of higher interest rates and higher yields which has been a big reason why the market has struggled to have a broad-based rally this year. Stone says recession has been delayed, not canceled, though it could be well into next year before that happens. Also on the show, Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, discusses the firm's new funds based on ether futures; ether is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency behind bitcoin, and was the subject of new funds released by three different fund companies this week. In the Market Call, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses exchange-traded funds.
Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says in the Talking Technicals segment that he expects "strength coming into the end of the year," with the stock market re-touching and potentially breaking all-time highs, but "from that point, I will get pretty defensive" because of the "very significant selloff" he expects in stocks. Grimes notes that he expects a protracted bear market for stocks, which doesn't change his long-term positive outlook for equities but which he says will hurt investors who haven't seen that kind of downturn in about 15 years. Nobel Prize winner Sir Angus Deaton returns to the show to discuss his new book, "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality," which is out today and which discusses how societal problems were exacerbated by economic platitudes and not enough attention paid to workers and the poor living through trouble. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen returns with the latest "Find Me The Money" segment, talking about the right way to hire an attorney to help guide you through the divorce process, and Chuck discusses a recent statement from Dave Ramsey about how easily the well-known financial guru has "beaten the market" over the last three decades.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that Affirm Holding's gains this year -- the stock has more than doubled year-to-date -- have fooled investors into thinking there might be value in the purveyor of buy now, pay later programs, so he put the company back in "The Danger Zone" for the third time in three years. Trainer noted that the stock -- despite this year's gains -- is down more than 80 percent from when he first said it was headed for trouble in 2021, and he says the firm remains a "zombie stock," likely to run out of money within two years. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst/Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com discusses the agreement in Congress that allowed Congress to avoid a government shutdown this weekend, but what lies ahead for lawmakers and the economy, financial adviser Eric Beiley of the Beiley Group worries about the economic troubles ahead and suggests bak CDs as a possible alternative for investors who want to be on the sidelines now, waiting for trouble to pass. In the Market Call, Art Amador of Equbot -- which oversees the AI Powered Equity ETF -- discusses artificial intelligence driving investment decisions.
Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says "the trend between here and year-end is up, and 4,825 [on the Standard and Poor's 500] is my objective, and he expects the rally to broaden -- moving beyond the Magnificent Seven that have led to this point in the year -- and spreading into small- and mid-cap stocks. Chris Huemmer, senior client portfolio manager, at Flexshares, talks about why he believes real assets and natural resources play are important to help balance out a portfolio in the conditions that lie ahead; he also likes parts of the bond market -- notably junk bonds -- disdained by most of the show's recent guests. Duncan Farley, manager of the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund -- which Morningstar places at the very top of its peer group over its five-year existence -- talks about how special situations are plentiful in the current marketplace, but the risks associated with those better yields are not so high as to turn off investors who can get 5 percent yields on money-market accounts. Plus, in the Market Call, Jordan Kahn, chief investment officer at HCR Wealth Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says it typically takes about a year from the start of a rate-hike cycle to impact the revenues of companies and then another nine months before layoffs and other fallout hits home. She says soft landings require increases in government spending, banks to ease lending requirements and labor costs coming down, and those factors aren't in the cards. Coupled with higher energy costs, the continuing strain on consumers and more, Fernandez says the economy and market is likely to take a hit early next year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi hums the tune of a new specialty fund for his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses their new research -- out today -- showing how the expectations of pre-retirees differ from the realities experienced by actual retirees, and Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks social investing in the Market Call.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that there is a lot of value opening up in fixed income, allowing bonds to do "more heavy lifting" in a portfolio than in recent years. She notes that bonds will ride out the choppy market until a recession sets in and yields fall precipitously, at which point bond prices will rise, goosing returns amid an economic contraction. Roland made it clear she does not believe in a no-landing" outcome, but she says "the time to prepare a roof is when the sun is shining," and investors should be working on their portfolios now. Also on the show, financial advisor Chris Collins discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2023 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that even millionaires -- and a surprising number of them -- worry that they will outlive their money, Chuck discusses how podcast host "Dr. Matt, the Cash-Flow King" wound up being charged this week with running a Ponzi scheme, and Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses "disruptive stocks" in the Market Call.
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says that while he expects the stock market to challenge its support levels and take a small step back soon, he expects "a buying opportunity between now and year-end" because the market cycle has plenty of strength -- particularly in industrial and energy stocks -- to keep the bullish phase running. Still, he expects a recession early in 2024, but says the market is prepared for a downturn that he expects to be short and shallow. In the Book Interview, Princeton University history professor Michael Blaakman discusses America's first market mania, the land rush of Revolutionary times and how it dictated much of what the country has seen and done since. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen returns for another episode of "Find Me The Money," talking about protecting your finances post-divorce, making a clean break on joint accounts, updating beneficiaries to retirement accounts and insurance policies and stopping an ex from accessing new credit in your name. In the Market Call, Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks and has five potential buys during the "Quick and Dirty" portion of the interview.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts an initial public offering into the Danger Zone for the third straight week, always jumping on deals he considers overpriced before they are even out of the box. Trainer says that this week's pick, Birkenstock, is another company that can show profits, but where the private-equity backers are pushing to get way more for those profits than the market is paying for the competition. Trainer's last two picks -- ARM Holdings and Maplebear (Instacart) -- have dropped below their IPO pop prices almost immediately after coming out. In The Big Interview, Stash Graham of Graham Capital Wealth Management, says that"there is pain ahead" for the economy; he says the business cycle starting to shift in ways where the higher cost of capital caused by increased interest rates and the struggles consumers and businesses are seeing due to lingering inflation are going to hit home and create serious market problems. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses Bankrate.com's latest study, which shows that many consumers are responding to current conditions by starting their holiday shopping now, and James Abate, manager of the five-star Centre American Select Equity Fund, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's message this week was largely positive -- suggesting we're "in a mode to get a soft landing" -- but the market seized on confusing parts where he suggested that the central bank is not afraid of going through some pain. Garretty notes that there are already plenty of "pain points" already visible in the economy, but that it hasn't created real trouble yet. The question, she noted, is whether that pain will be felt down the line. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors talks about how muni-bond closed-end funds have seen discounts widening well past historic norms -- but notes that investors may want to be cautious before diving in -- Chuck answers a listener's question on unit investment trusts, and Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that technical indicators suggest the market will challenge support levels -- taking a small setback -- before they can start to make the next leg up.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research, says the Federal Reserve is putting "arrows in the quiver" to deal with a recession if it happens, but that the central bankers have signaled that "if there's a rough landing ... they won't be so quick to react to it." Roberts says the economy remains strong -- and that the U.S. is still the best market in the world -- despite the market acting like it's in a correction. He sees the narrow, large-cap rally continuing for the foreseeable future. Plus, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, picks up on the quality theme he discussed a week ago, but turns in the small-cap direction with his "ETF of the Week," Chuck goes off the news with a consumer story that impacts every adult in the country -- and which serves as a reminder to take care of your financial chores -- and Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet, returns to the Market Call to discuss exchange-traded funds.
Sir Angus Deaton, a Nobel Prize winning economist and Princeton University professor, says that economic policy for the last few decades has paid little to no attention to "the negative consequences of trade, of disruption, of people losing their jobs to automation to globalization and what-not" and he thinks the Inflation Reduction Act has started to reverse that, though the progress maybe short-lived given current politics. Deaton weighs in on the UAW strike and the importance of unions and what he sees as the best possible outcome not only of the current situation but in the ways Corporate America and workers will deal with technological improvements from here. Also on the show, Miles Tullo discusses the latest research from J.D. Power on consumer preferences at the point of sale; debit cards are the not-surprising winner, but alternative methods -- including buy-now-pay-later choices -- are increasingly popular. Plus, portfolio manager Andrey Kutusov of Seven Canyons Advisors, talks international growth investing in the Market Call.
Investigative reporter Zeke Faux, author of “Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall,” discusses his adventures covering the cryptocurrency market, from connecting with Sam Bankman-Fried before the collapse of FTX to attending "ApeFest," convincing his wife to let him spend $20,000 on an NFT as part of his book research and more. He also notes that despite its trading popularity, having crypto used as currency remains a struggle, even in the countries that have tried to adopt its usage. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about digging into the more obscure and esoteric documents -- insurance policies, car titles, estate-planning paperwork and more -- and making a timeline to help uncover forgotten or missing accounts (something Chuck experienced personally in his own case) in the latest installment of "Find Me The Money," and Mike Venuto, chief investment officer at Tidal Financial Group talks ETFs in the Markt Call.
Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners, says that stock prices in emerging markets are depressed -- understandably so -- but he thinks they have been too beaten down, which makes the case for emerging markets as a value play right now. That said, Foster says there is not a strong argument for growth investing in emerging markets now because struggles in China, the hub of the emerging markets, are tamping down the potential for growth in the asset class. Foster notes that China has been decoupling from U.S. markets, and visa versa, which is changing the international markets picture and the outcomes likely based on international politics. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs is back with another IPO that he believes is rotten from the get-go, opening into troubling conditions that will lead to trouble once the market's honeymoon with the new offering is over, and we revisit a recent Marekt Call interview with Stephen Dodson, portfolio manager at The Bretton Fund.
Michael Baron, portfolio manager for the Baron Partners Fund, explains how the fund came to have nearly half of its portfolio in one stock -- Tesla -- and how his confidence in the company may lead for those holdings to become an even bigger portion of the portfolio. Just as importantly, Baron explains how the Tesla example highlights the way active management and good stock picking can still beat the indexes and deliver superior returns. Also on the show, Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, explains that a wave of mostly negative sentiment among traders has the market poised to finish out the year relatively strong, provided it can get through some short-term bumps now, Colin McBurnette of the Angel Oak Funds discussed how the high-rate, high-inflation environment have set up the housing and mortgage market to deliver at a time when headlines suggest that real estate is troubled. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive at Left Brain Wealth Management, returns to the show to talk growth stocks.
Whitney Tilson, founder and chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says he expects the market to be flat to slightly up for the remainder of 2023 -- gaining about 5 percent on top of the 17 percent gains thus far -- and then gaining another 10 to 15 percent in 2023. He expects the "sanguine, strong" economic environment to continue despite the skepticism that has been present -- but which hasn't really slowed anything -- this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi dives into factor ETFs with his pick for "ETF of the Week," and Eric Marshall, president and portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund, says the economy and rate cycle are both reaching inflection points, making it tricky to make moves in fixed income without risking being wrong and facing punishment that's "severe". As such, he suggests moving up in credit quality, avoiding undue risks and starting to lengthen maturities, planning for rates to start going lower in six to nine months when the Federal Reserve has pushed the economy to where inflation finally recedes. Also on the show, Toby Eng discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2023 Planning and Progress Study, showing that nearly one-third of Americans lose sleep at least once a month due to financial uncertainties. In the Market Call, Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management, makes his first appearance on the show and discusses small-and micro-cap investing.
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the trend since October of last year remains up, despite the corrective nature of the last six weeks; that push and pull makes it that Kahn suggests buying only a few solid choices but not buying broadly or getting widely invested because the market's 'just not there at the moment.' Lowry notes that small-cap companies are struggling and he wants to see a resurgence in small-caps to get happy about the market's resurgence and prospects. In The Book Interview, best-selling author Diana Henriques discusses her newest effort -- 'Taming the Street: The Old Guard, the New Deal, and FDR's Fight to Regulate American Capitalism' -- which is out today. In the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen dives into the high cost -- and the spent money that might be recovered -- in cases of romantic infidelity, and Chuck discusses taking some old coins and jewelry to a gold buyer, and what he learned from the process.
Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says the biggest surprise in 2023 has been just how resilient the economy has been, but not the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver a soft landing, because economic growth combined with declining inflation and a cautious central bank are the recipe to delay a decline. Amoroso believes there will eventually be a recession, but says it's not imminent unless the Fed becomes too restrictive too quickly. Also on the show, David Trainer, president at research firm New Constructs, says this week's hot IPO deal is headed for trouble right out of the box, Megan Sanctorum discusses a survey showing that nearly one-third of Americans feel stuck or 'trapped' in a home they don't like or can't afford and, in the Market Call, Chris McMahon, chief executive officer at Aquinas Wealth Management, talks stocks and praises the very IPO that Trainer has in the Danger Zone.
Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says he expects the stock market to continue higher -- until something interrupts the trend and shows a reason to be bearish -- but he acknowledges that the market is climbing the proverbial wall of worry because 'Things are not as bad as people feared.' Conditions haven't been great, but neither have they been awful, and 'not terrible' doesn't inspire investors to get more adventurous. Also on the show, Mitchel Penn, managing director of equity research at Oppenheimer and Co., discusses the impact of higher interest rates and stubborn inflation on business-development companies, Roni Israelov, president of NDVR, discusses portfolio construction and the idea that most market moves shouldn't inspire portfolio changes for ordinary investors, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, brings his top-down, flavored-with-technicals approach to the Money Life Market Call.
Odysseas Papadimitrou, chief executive officer at WalletHub.com, says that concerns over recent news about the nation's credit-card debt are overblown, in part because the numbers released recently by the Federal Reserve aren't adjusted for inflation. WalletHub analyzed the numbers and found that credit card debit levels relative to assets and other metrics show that the consumer is stronger than the Fed number suggests, which suggests that the consumer-driven economy can keep rolling. Also ont he show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a currency hedged play on Japan his 'ETF of the Week,' Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the site's annual checking account survey which shows record levels of ATM fees -- though he argues that statistic is less important than it has been in decades -- and, in the Market Call, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management discusses his GPS Method of buying companies that beat estimates and raise guidance.
Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities -- which specializes in initial public offerings and private-market securities -- says the run-up in interest rates has changed the risk profile of potential buyers, and makes it harder for new projects to draw the dollars if all conditions aren't nearly perfect. He also talks about the SPAC market -- which he calls a 'house of cards' and a Ponzi scheme -- and how companies that want access to the public markets have to change in order to attract those dollars now. Also on the show, Paul Seaton of Fulcrum Asset Management North America discusses the firm's recent survey of investment advisers and discusses where those money managers want to go to diversify client portfolios now, Chuck responds to a listener who suggests that Chuck might have missed his beloved Michigan game last weekend 'on principle,' rather than paying a fee to a streaming service, and Mac Sykes of the Gabelli Funds talks financial stocks in the Market Call.
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that while conventional thinking has moved away from a recession being imminent, more difficult conditions for consumers in the fourth quarter will create an economic slowdown that is likely to become a mild recession early in 2024. St. Aubin says stocks might tolerate the downturn well, in part because of the bear market of 2022, and in part because the economic downturn is unlikely to last more than two quarters. Azish Filabi of the American College of Financial Services talks about a survey showing the factors that help consumers develop, establish and maintain trust in working with financial advisers. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses 'gray divorces' and the challenges that break-ups at older ages create for a fair split of assets, and Chuck answers a listener's question about pre-nups, trusts or both for providing financial security.
Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says he expects the fall to play out the way it has historically, suffering through September and into October before starting a rally into the end of the year. He says the market has struggled since Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit rating of the United States, but that it has also created opportunities where an investor who dials down and gets into specific trending names can ride out the hot streaks while the broad market gets through the doldrums. David Teppe of Tepper Capital Management talks about four of the oldest, most classic closed-end funds and how he has used them for decades, and why he likes them now when they are bringing that long-time consistent performance at a significant discount. Jenn Tracy discusses an IPX1031 study showing that identity theft issues have hit nearly one-third of Americans, and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund covers 'value business investing' in the Market Call.
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, pounded the table for value investments -- and noted that he never even uses the phrase 'pound the table' -- noting that 'some of the opportunity set that exists today for value-style investments is some of the best we've ever seen.' Despite that environment, Faber is not exceptionally bullish for the market as a whole, noting that 'the conditions we have today are much, much closer to very poor broad-based stock returns going forward for the next decade.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, goes old-school and makes a classic fund with a bent for industrial stocks his pick as ETF of the Week and, in the market Call, Kyle Balkissoon of the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF, discusses his mix of social and governance factors with quantitative investment tactics.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says the bond market and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell 'are like two ships passing in the night,' with the bond market expecting the central bank chairman to cut rates sooner than he might want to, but if Powell raises rates or keeps them higher for longer, it will have a big negative impact on the market. Mullaney may not like the domestic markets particularly well, but he continues to considerit 'the best house in a bad neighborhood,' noting that other economies -- particularly Europe -- are facing bigger struggles right now. Also on the show, Deb Boyden of Schroders discusses the firm's annual retirement survey, which showed that just 10 percent of non-retirees plan to wait to age 70 before claiming Social Security benefits, meaning they will not max out their payouts because they want to start receiving cash sooner; plus, Chuck answers a listener question about dollar-cost averaging, and Ed Shill of Wealth Enhancement Group brings his balanced approach to the Market Call.
Katherine Krantz, chief executive officer at the Center for the Macro Specialist Designation, says she sees no indicator suggesting that 'This time is different,' meaning that elements like the inverted yield curve and the leading indicators -- which typically take 18 months before the conditions they exemplify hit the economy -- are only now starting to impact the economy. She doesn't like the looks of what is ahead. In the Talking Technicals segment, Michele Schneider of MarketGauge.com, says she is watching small-company stocks expecting them to be due for a rally as the market moves forward, with mega-cap momentum driven stocks suffering in volatile markets with little or no direction trends. Also on the show, Marci Stewart of Schwab Workplace Financial Services discusses the firm's 2023 401k Participant Study and, in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the importance of a spending plan to keep the money problems at bay and to keep the money in plain sight.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says there is a less than 50 percent chance of a recession this year, but adds that it looks like the economy could actually push off the downturn until 2025, with the strong job market and low unemployment basically balancing out bad inflation to keep economic troubles at bay. Also on the show, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the growing crisis in student-loan debt and the steps consumers are hoping legislators will take as they face the re-start to loan payments beginning in October. Plus, Jenn Tracy discusses a Craftjack.com survey on the way remote workers think their bosses are checking their work habits and productivity and, in the Danger Zone segment, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, revisits a zombie stock that has little left to chew on and just months left before it runs out of capital.
David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- president of Sierra Alpha Research -- says that growth stocks are overextended and he expects that to unwind -- especially for the so-called 'Magnificent Seven' -- leading to choppiness for the rest of the third quarter before an end-of-year rally, with longer-term conditions weakening entering the New Year. Keller notes that forecast maps well with what most observers would have expected entering a pre-election year. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses the data and research behind building a portfolio of closed-end funds, Joe Mazzola of Charles Schwab covers the firm's Q3 Trader Sentiment Survey and where traders believe the market is headed, and Matt Lindholm, portfolio manager at CAZ Investments, talks thematic investing and growth-at-a-reasonable-price in the Market Call.
Jeff Weaver, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, discusses how the money-market fund business has changed as interest rates have climbed to where payouts are at levels not seen in decades, but cautions against going all-in on the short-term savings instruments because when a recession comes -- something he expects for 2024 -- investors who have not started to lengthen out the maturity of fixed income holdings will miss out on the solid longer-term rates available today. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at the strong consumer's shopping habits for his ETF of the Week, author Kerry Pechter of Retirement Income Journal discusses his revised version of 'Annuities for Dummies' and the way higher interest rates and inflation have changed the picture for annuity products, and Luke Babich of Clever Real Estate discusses their survey showing that Americans in the market for a home have some surprising misconceptions about the costs and responsibilities of buying and owning one.
Mervin Jebaraj, a professor at the University of Arkansas who chairs the Economic Policy Survey for the National Association for Business Economics, says the group's most recent poll of members showed a remarkable turnaround of sentiment from just a few months ago. Two-thirds of the economists polled were confident the economy is headed for a soft-landing scenario now, as opposed to the March survey results which showed nearly 70 percent had no confidence in a good outcome. Also on the show, Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Adviser, talks about playing defense in these confusing market times, Elliott Gue of the Energy and Income Advisor tackles the Money Life Market Call, and Chuck talks about the closure of a fund that tracked the stock picks of CNBC stock-talker Jim Cramer.
Rusty Vanneman, chief investment officer at Orion, says that while the economy has done better than experts forecasts and predictions of a soft- or no-landing scenario are well-reasoned, the leading indicators -- which take a long time to impact the economy -- show that storm clouds remain in place, at least enough so that investors should be cautious. He talks about diversifying into this market to account for those risks. Also on the show, Bryan Armour of Morningstar discusses the firm's latest U.S. fund fees study, which shows that Americans are saving billions by continuing to adhere to cost-conscious strategies, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses in 'Find Me The Money' how couples can and should commingle finances and money-management styles when first connecting to avoid trouble later, and Scott Bennett of Invest With Rules puts his rules to work in the Money Life Market Call.
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says it is possible that long-term recession predictors like the inverted yield curve and leading indicators may not be right this time, but mostly because the economy has been going through a series of recessions in various sectors. At the same time as those niche downturns, Yardeni says there have been simultaneous recoveries occurring in other portions of the economy, creating a counterbalance that has kept the United States out of a full-blown recession and which appears likely to keep it out of any protracted decline. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about the widest discounts the closed-end fund industry has seen in decades and how that is a big buy signal right now. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts ride-share company Lyft back in The Danger Zone, noting that its recent rebound shouldn't fool anyone into thinking the company is out of the woods and looking solid for the future.
Jordan Lopez, manager of the Payden High Income Fund, says that the healthy economy -- which he sees as being able to avoid a protracted and/or deep recession -- has high-yield securities in a good place, able to pay out returns that beat current inflation rates without much additional default risk. He notes that with a lot of high-yield debt currently having intermediate maturities, companies can be flexible and patient, which will help to guard against rising costs of capital until the rate trend turns. Also on the show, Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says the market has been pushing against support levels and if it breaks through 4,300 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it could break out of its current range and fall significantly; still, he feels like most of the downside pressure is a short-term risk, with longer-term technical indicators holding up reasonably well. Plus, Christian Munafo of Liberty Street Advisors and the Private Shares Fund talks about burgeoning opportunities in private-equity and venture-capital investing, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds talks in the Market Call about using insider-buying as a buy/sell factor in stock selection.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that, in hindsight, the economy was never in real danger of a recession because of the strong consumer and with the consumer now getting stronger the economy will be able to move forward at reasonable growth levels. Frick also calls the inverted yield curve and the leading economic indicators 'irrelevant,' noting that conditions were so changed by the pandemic that the key numbers to watch changed. He watches spending, and while he feels good about prospects, Frick is not optimistic due to economic challenges facing the nearly one-third of Americans who qualify as 'lower-income.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi turns to uranium for his ETF of the Week. And the Market Call features a first in the history of the show -- coverage of preferred securities -- with Douglas Crimmins of Relative Value Partners talking about generating income at reasonable prices.
Financial journalist Allan Sloan -- a seven-time winner of business journalism's highest honor, the Loeb Award -- says that while it appears the country can avoid a recession, America can't avoid long-term financial trouble if leaders in Washington can't find a way to compromise and make progress on financial goals. He says the Fitch Ratings downgrade of U.S. credit is a sign that the markets recognize how intractable the country's political divide is. In The Big Interview, Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X ETFs, talks short-term Treasury investing in a high-rate market with an inverted yield curve, but also touches on other investment themes driving pockets of the market today. In the Market Call, Mike Liss of the American Century Value fund, discusses relative-value investing and the ease of finding reasonable bargains today.
Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer for Cambiar Investors, says that rising interest rates have increased the cost of capital for businesses, which is shifting which industries and businesses can thrive. The increased cost of capital is changing market conditions to where value and growth investing are now on a more equal footing, and should be more balanced moving forward. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the economy has had its recession in the form of two negative GDP quarters last year, and that people expecting a bear market have been wrong; while he expects a pullback in the market, Leydon thinks it will be short enough to be treated like a buying opportunity. Susan Fahy examines the latest 'Credit Gauge' from VantageScore, which shows that delinquencies are up slightly but that American consumers are using credit more cautiously. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen gets real in discussing pre-nups, post-nups and 're-nups,' and showing how some cases involving 'Real Housewives' cast members highlight the struggles couples have when dividing both assets and debts when the relationship and the money don't turn out as anticipated on the wedding day.
Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says the worst is over for the economy -- the worst being the horrible stock and bond market of 2022 -- and that while recessionary conditions exist or may bubble up in some sectors, the overall market is likely to be strong, retaining or growing the gains the market has experienced thus far this year. David Trainer, president and founder at New Constructs puts Wayfair back in the Danger Zone, noting that with the stock having more than doubled this year, recent good news has merely made the situation more dangerous. Also on the show, Chuck takes a listener's question on declaring for Social Security benefits and Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research at Employee Benefit Research Institute, talks about the negative impacts that caring for loved ones can have on the caregivers' retirement confidence.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says the slow-developing impacts from the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy 'still lies before us,' putting the market 'in a vulnerable spot' as it enters August, September and October, historically the toughest months of the year. As a result, he expects a 'tactical correction' late this year, and urges patience while that plays out. Also stressing patience on this show is Jason Brown of The Brown Report, who notes that the market has hit a band of resistance short of returning to all-time highs and he expects it to struggle to break through, although he thinks support levels will hold up because the negatives have been priced in. He expects a choppy, range-bound market that works well for options and covered-call strategies but is hard on directional traders who need bullish or bearish trends. Plus, Scott Caraher, head of senior loans at Nuveen says rate hikes are stressing low-rated companies and are likely to spur new defaults, but also creating opportunities in higher-rated paper that can get through the economic downturn and thrive when rates eventually start to reverse their course
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says the stock market's strong run makes investors feel good, but it has gotten to a point where the market is expecting more that a slowing economy that is dealing with inflation can deliver. Thomas says the current earnings recession is problematic -- regardless of whether the broad economy enters a recession -- because it shows that micro issues and what is happening at the company level will be more important than the macro, big-picture issues moving into 2024. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a new fund that puts a different twist -- driven by artificial intelligence -- on 'Buy on the dips.' Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com looks at how inflation and rate changes are impacting credit-card users, and what it all says for the big picture at a time when credit-card debt nationally now exceeds $1 trillion. In the Market Call, Dorrit Lowsen, president of Change Finance, talks stocks through the lens of her firm's unique take on ESG investing.
Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief investment officer, at Centerstone Investors says the economy is still playing out the last effects of the pandemic, and that a recession is likely to be the end of those financial consequences before 'the normal progression starts to resume.' Deshpande says it will be a 'run-of-the-mill recession,' a mild slowdown that investors will want to muddle through in stocks, rather than seeking shelter in fixed income. Also on the show, Regina Conway of Slickdeals discusses how inflation has been impacting the impulse-buying habits of American consumers, Chuck answers a listener question and Michael Roomberg of Miller Howard Investments talks energy stocks in the Market Call.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank says that the economy is not headed toward a significant downturn felt across many sectors of the economy, showing up in declining incomes and employment and it lasts for several quarters. While he sees slow growth and a few other issues, Adams believes the Federal Reserve has done enough to avoid a recession, and expects the central bank to wait at least one more meeting before having a rate hike in November to help play out the policies it has been pursuing to reduce inflation. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors also sees the market and economy riding out a few years down the road before there is any recession; Newton expects investors to be able to make money this year and next before he sees a bear market ending the rally. In the latest installment of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses how earnings discrepancies and career moves make it imperative for women to get their share of a couple's retirement savings -- even if it means giving up the house -- to avoid becoming a statistic about poor lifetime savings. Plus, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, talks about the positive value proposition of buying a ticket for Tuesday's $1.55 billion MegaMillions drawing.
Akhil Patel, author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage: How You Can Profit from the Economy's Hidden Cycle' says that the economy is nearing the peak in the long-term cycles his research has uncovered, and that time should be filled with rampant speculative behavior, where investors lose sight of fundamentals. He expects that rally built around confidence and momentum to end when the cycle turns and the long-term cycle he sees quickly reaches its depths. Also on the show, research analyst Megan Sanctorum discusses how much the average American spends on products endorsed by athletes, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits SNAP, saying that a recent run-up makes the stock particularly worrisome now, and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners covers the tactical use of exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Veteran markets observer Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says he has been surprised by the strength of the market's current rally, but he doesn't see the market re-testing of lows -- even if the uptrend has gone too far, too fast -- so long as the Federal Reserve is nearly done with hiking rates. Sargen notes that one saving grace of the market's topsy-turvy year has been that fixed-income has started working again, paying investors while they wait for better conditions for stocks. Sargen noted that he also likes India and Japan as international investments now. Also on the show, Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that the changing rate, banking and inflation conditions have given business-development companies and private lenders more power to make good deals that can weather a recession, and in the Market Call, Dave Sekera, the chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, talks about buying stocks trading well below their fair-value estimate.
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says investors should be thinking defensively and looking at dividend stocks rather than hoping that central bankers will pivot and start cutting rates to boost the market, because he thinks the Fed will stick with higher rates until economic conditions deteriorate to where such a move is necessary. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, meanwhile, looks toward small-cap stocks with his pick for ETF of the Week, George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors returns to the show for a second day, going off the news to talk about how Fitch Ratings' cut of the U.S. credit rating will impact markets and gold, and Darren Chervitz of Jacob Discovery Fund talks about buying small - and micro-cap stocks at value prices in the Market Call.
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that a recession or period of slower growth will hurt the dollar and domestic stocks, creating ideal conditions for gold, particularly with the confluence of higher-for-longer inflation and election-year politics. Milling-Stanley notes that while gold has not been a great hedge against the recent inflation, he expects it to do better in that role going forward because 'we have not yet had the kind of inflation that gold has historically offered protection against.' Also on the show, Hamish Preston of S and P Dow Jones Indices, discusses how the stock market in July hit thresholds for success that had not been seen in nearly 30 years, Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses Americans' most common financial regrets and, in the Market Call, Cullen Roche of the Discipline Funds talks systematic investment in exchange-traded funds.
Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global market strategist at Charles Schwab and Co., says that the cardboard box recession of the last year -- which affected manufacturing and trade sectors, effectively 'everything that goes in a cardboard box' -- has allowed the economy and market to push forward despite potential troubles, but now he sees difficult conditions hitting some of the service sectors which could lead to worse economic conditions. While he is not expecting a hard landing -- although he notes that the weather could be a surprising economic factor -- Kleintop expects volatility and conditions that favor international investments, particularly in Japan and India. Meanwhile, Kendall Dilley of Vineyard Global Advisors says that the market's technicals are pointing to a downturn, but showing enough strength that any correction should be a buying opportunity. Plus, Robbie Burns -- 'The Naked Trader' discusses 'The Naked Trader's Book of Trading Strategies', and forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about whether finding the money actually leads to recovering it and getting a payoff in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money.'
Veteran money manager Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, has gotten famous making 10 predictions every year, and he sits down to revisit what he was saying at the start of the year and how it has been turning out. Thus far, it has been a mixed bag, but Doll notes that the market has been more optimistic than anyone expected for 2023, and now that investors are feeling fat and happy, they are likely to live through a recession. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the latest details from the 2023 Planning and Progress Study from Northwestern Mutual, showing that 35 percent of Americans say they're close to or at their highest-ever level of personal debt, Mitchell Morrison, creator of the Eyeballs app, talks about whether consumers will trust artificial intelligence and services like ChatGPT to do their financial planning, and Kyle Guske, of New Constructs puts a popular brand-name stock in the Danger Zone, noting that it could easily shed $100 per share from current price levels.
Jim Welsh, author of the 'Macro Tides' and 'Weekly Technical Review' newsletters, says that the leading economic indicators that had everyone expecting a recession a year ago have fooled investors by softening recently. While many experts now are predicting a soft landing and the potential for no recession, Welsh says key indicators -- like the inverted yield curve -- often take a year or more to pan out and they will come to roost in the next three to six months, reinforcing the possibility of a 5 to 7 percent market pullback before the year ends. Also on the show, Jon Baranko, chief investment officer for fundamental investments at Allspring Global Investments, discusses how the strong start to 2023 impacted the firm's mid-year outlook, which is looking ahead and seeing broader participation and strong times for small-cap stocks ahead. In The NAVigator, it's Josh Duitz of the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Income Fund, explains why the timing is good for infrastructure investing but notes that the public companies in the sector are a particularly good value right now. In the Market Call, Bernie Horn of the Polaris Global Value fund talks stocks.
Long-time bond fund manager Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles and Co., says that the current economic environment 'rhymes with what we had in the 1970s, but the geopolitics and the climate are new things, and they are actually more important right now than what the Fed is up to.' Fuss says he does not expect short-term interest rates to start trending downward quickly, noting that he expects the yield curve to flatten but not to return to its normal slope soon. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, turns to regional banking -- a sector that has been troubled and which may not be through those rough times this week -- for his ETF of the Week, and author Michael Robbins discusses the impact artificial intelligence is having on investment thinking as he discusses his book 'Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing.'
Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network, says it's hard to make a case for risk assets like stocks to move much in either direction and the mixed signals extend to the economy, which he believes will avoid the extreme moves in either direction. As a result, he discounts the potential for an economic hard landing -- despite expecting below-average economic growth -- despite expecting lackluster performance as current conditions play out into next year. Similar sentiments were expressed by Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, who notes that gold has been a better hedge for inflation of late than it was at the start of the interest rate-hike cycle, but who notes that the real potential in precious metals moving forward will be more about total return of the asset compared to stocks. Winmill, who also manages Dividend and Income Fund, says he expects a coming downturn to strengthen the many buys he currently sees for investors willing to look past the few stocks that have led the current rally. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez discusses WalletHub's analysis that a small Federal Reserve rate hike will directly cost Americans billions of dollars in extra interest charges, Lester Jones talks the latest business conditions survey out this week from the National Association for Business Economics -- which shows surprising optimism among economists -- and Chuck answers a listener's question about investing for income.
Jeffrey Bierman, founder of The QuantGuy.com and chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, says that the market is overheated and overbought, but it very well could rise from here and re-touch record highs before a likely correction ahead. Bierman says technology and leisure are the areas that have made the market frothy and are overdue for a correction of 30 percent or more, and while oil and financials will help the overall market cushion the fall, Bierman believes utilities and pharmaceutical stocks will be areas to outperform while the market goes through 'unavoidable' pain. Brian Payne, chief strategist for private markets and alternatives at BCA Research talks about the wide-ranging opportunities in the private credit markets, and how senior loans and other private credit varieties can goose a portfolio's yield. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen identifies three common red flags pointing to signs of financial fraud in the latest installment of 'Find Me The Money,' and Eric Boughton, chief analyst at Matisse Capital, talks about closed-end funds, wide discounts and current buying opportunities in the Market Call.
Retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, chief executive at Telsey Advisory Group, says that inflation has forced consumers to become more discerning with their spending, using more on essentials and trying to keep powder dry, and while it's not enough of a pullback to tank the economy, the longer inflation persists at high levels, the harder it will be for the consumer to keep propping up the economy. Meanwhile, bullish investor sentiment -- the expectation that the stock market will gain ground in the next six months -- reached "unusually high" levels in the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey, with Charles Rotblut -- who runs the survey for AAII -- noting that extreme sentiment levels often are a precursor to the market changing directions. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs says puts Tesla and Netflix back into the Danger Zone, noting valuations after recent earnings reports have them poised for a setback and, in the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds puts his take on value investing in current conditions.
Avi Gilburt, founder of the ElliottWave Trader continues to see the market rallying to new highs but then setting off on a years-long bear market, but in his other role as founder of Safer Banking Research, he notes that the economic downturn will include much more pain for banks, noting that the bank collapses from earlier in 2023 are just the tip of the iceberg, and investors who flee the market for the safety of banks may soon be worrying about just being able to get their money back. Also on the show, Mark Asaro of Noble Wealth Management discusses how investors should not replace individual bonds with traditional bond funds, and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com talks about the financial costs of travel problems that consumers have been facing this year. Plus Ryan Kirlin of Alpha Architect and the U.S. Quantitative Value and U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETFs talks systematic investing in the Market Call.
Geoff Dailey, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas, says he expects the economy to go through a recession, but not one that is particularly deep or long, provided that the Federal Reserve's moves work toward reducing inflation. Dailey expects the market to be particularly volatile around news events like inflation and unemployment reports, but says that volatility will remove much of the building pressure for something bigger and more painful; his worry is that if inflation doesn't cool, the Fed could keep pushing until the economy craters, causing the worst-case scenario of a deep downturn. Also on the show, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management talks about the 'FANGMAN' stocks -- which he considers highly overvalued despite leading the market this year -- as well as funds and ETFs in the Market Call, Sam Huisache discusses a recent Clever Real Estate survey showing Americans don't feel that marriage is much of a factor when it comes to home buying, and Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a consumer-centric fund his ETF of the Week.
Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says she expects a recession and the bad news of that economic downturn will be contagious, with the recession hitting employment, rising unemployment will impact income levels, which hurts spending, and declines in spending injures corporate profits. That cycle could lead to a relatively long sideways period, especially if the Federal Reserve takes its time before changing its rate outlook. Also on the shot, MIT professor Yossi Sheffi discusses his latest book, "The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I. and the Future of Work," and in the Market Call, Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks about how even a diehard stock jockey like himself should be considering bank deposits as a possible alternative during the rough times he sees dead ahead.
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist at the Hartford Funds, says risk markets are pricing in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve can orchestrate and navigate the economy to a soft landing, and yet her base case is for a recession and history shows these conditions typically end up in a rougher landing. That's how she sees things playing out, despite the current emotions of the market. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the importance of digging into tax returns when coming up with equitable settlements in divorce cases in the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money.' Meredith Lepore discusses a Credello survey on how parents are contributing to their kids' student loan payments and how it is stressing their ability to save for retirement and more, plus Michael Loukas, chief executive officer at TrueMark Investments -- which runs the TrueShares ETFs -- talks winner-take-all stock investing in the Market Call.
Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at TruStage, says that while there has been rolling softness in the economy, he believes the Federal Reserve sees inflation as being worse than unemployment, which makes the central bank so determined to curb inflation that it hikes rates and/or delays rate cuts until the jobless rate rises enough to trigger a recession. And while Knapp acknowledges that the Fed could thread the needle perfectly, he notes that he doesn't think a soft landing is the probable outcome. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund in the Danger Zone for performance that he says has been much less than management's investment style should have produced, Olivia Newport covers a Choice Mutual survey showing that inflation has impacted Americans' funeral preferences, and author Michael Thomsen discusses his latest book, 'Cage Kings: How an Unlikely Group of Moguls, Champions, and Hustlers Transformed the UFC into a $10 Billion Industry.'
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, says the first-half upside surprise from the stock market and economy has positioned the market for a big second half of the year. Detrick says that when the market posts double-digit gains in the first half of the year, historically it has added another 10 percent in the second half; he's forecasting for this year to continue the trend, with the Standard and Poor's 500 projected to gain 21 to 25 percent for the year, a prediction that's way up from the 12 to 15 percent gains he was calling for '23 when he made his annual forecast at the end of last year. Detrick's bullish view was echoed -- albeit for different and more technical reasons -- by Jeff Bishop, chief executive at RagingBull.com, who says the market is no longer range-bound, having broken out to the upside and with most technical indicators suggesting it could get all the way up to all-time high levels before the year is done. Also on the show, securities attorney Kenneth Burdon of Skadden Arps says that rules proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission would dramatically change liquidity requirements on traditional mutual funds, resulting in a boom for interval funds, and Vern Sumnicht of iSectors.com talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says that she expects the stock market to remain range-bound for a few months, with the potential for a small pullback before it starts its next upward move at the end of the year. Hooper says she expects that we're less likely to see a serious economic downturn that she was earlier this year, noting that the Federal Reserve "is enjoying being in a more normal rate environment and wants to hold onto that for as long as it can." She also talked up the opportunities in fixed income, while downplaying concerns about the inverted yield curve, noting that investors need to start looking to lengthen maturities now to take advantage of the changing rate conditions. Also on the show, Dave Gilreath, chief investment officer at Innovative Portfolios discusses stocks -- and particularly the 'Bulls of the Dow' strategy, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a pioneering mutual fund that created its own niche and now dominates the asset class his pick as ETF of the Week, and Ted Rossman discusses a CreditCards.com study showing which states have the highest and lowest debt burdens relative to the incomes average people earn there.
Jerry Paul, senior vice president of fixed income at ICON Advisers, says that inflation is going to remain stubbornly high, which leads him to expect two more rate hikes and to doubt anyone expecting the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates. He believes it will be 2024 before rate cuts become a remote possibility. Meanwhile, Paul says there are plenty of fixed-income opportunities, though they aren't nearly so attractive in traditional areas like junk-bonds as they are in areas like banking paper or closed-end bond funds. Also on the show, University of Connecticut professor Richard Langlois discusses his recent book, 'The Corporation and the Twentieth Century,' and how 'managerialism' has changed not just the working world but maybe how investors decide which stocks are worth buying. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund talks stocks for the long run.
Barry Ritholtz, chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says the Federal Reserve has done a good job reducing inflation, but he worries that chairman Jerome Powell could over-tighten the economy into a recession, largely because the central bank is tied to models from the 1970s and following an outdated gameplan from that era that could make inflation worse today. In a wide-ranging conversation, Ritzholtz expresses a largely optimistic view predicated on the Fed's strategy not making difficult conditions worse than they need to be. Also on the show, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, says that the big indexes have 'hit a wall,' and that the market needs to gather itself with a sideways move or slight step-back before it can break out of its current range. Plus, in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the spending and money-movement patterns that are telltale signs that family money is being diverted, noting that there aren't many ways a spouse can hide money once their partner knows where to look.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says there's a pleasant surprise coming in that the Federal Reserve will not have to be too aggressive to get inflation under better control, noting that he expects a slowdown in the second half -- fueled by labor issues including a potential strike at UPS -- but that the downturn stops short of being a recession. Also on the show, Kevin Crain discusses a Bank of America study showing that the average 401() account balance for men exceeds that of women by 50 percent, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a stock in the Danger Zone that he expects to have one of the biggest earnings misses when quarterly earnings start rolling out in the next few weeks plus, in the Market Call, Manny Weintraub of Spears Abacus talks stocks that produce and compound income.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that the economy must land but the question is 'Can it land in a reasonably smooth way or do we have a sharp correction downward' that triggers a recession. Gruenwald says the Federal Reserve has been surprising the market with its determination to reach its goals, and that while it puts off rate cuts for the next six to 12 months the market will adjust in ways that result in a slowdown and some profit-taking. Also on the show, Kimberly Flynn of XA Investments discusses the rapid growth in interval funds holding alternative investments, noting that the industry is in the 'second inning' of a dramatic growth cycle. And in the Market Call, David Barse of Xout Capital discusses the ins and outs of a system that seeks to invest in the best of the stock market's top companies.
David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- the author of the Haymaker newsletter -- says the economy has been throwing 'a huge head fake right now' that has convinced a lot of pundits that the Federal Reserve can pull off a soft- or no-landing scenario. That's not what he's expecting, however, noting that there are plenty of indicators to suggest that troubles are mounting. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi turns to an income fund for his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses the changing outlook that different generations have for their retirements, and William Smead of the Smead Value fund taks stocks -- and holding unpopular positions for a long time -- in the Market Call.
Zachary Karabell, president of RiverTwice Capital and founder of The Progress Network, says that investors who are looking to past economic patterns to predict what's next could be off base because, among other things, they are looking for a recession instead of trying to gauge whether we are already in one. He notes that the wide variability of potential outcomes from here shouldn't scare investors much, because the mid- and long-range outlooks generally appear to be positive, despite concerns like inflation, the inverted yield curve and more. Plus, Cassandra Rupp, financial advisor at the Vanguard Group discusses the firm's study on 'Higher Education Perspectives and The State of Saving,' which showed that an alarming number of Americans don't know much about the best and most popular vehicles to use for saving for college. In the Market Call, Andy Braun, portfolio manager for the Impax Large Cap fund talks brand-name stocks bought and sold today with a social/ESG mindset.
With surveys showing that most young adults feel they won't be able to afford to buy a home if they don't win a lottery, Chuck talks with Ajaie Albert, communications director at Lotto N Crowd -- a site that tries to mix financial literacy with lottery insights and the ability to join ticket pools -- about whether there is much anyone can do to meaningfully impact their chances of winning. Speaking of the struggles to buy a home, Emily Thornton discusses a study showing that homeowners are struggling too, with nearly 4 in 10 postponing repairs due to the effects of inflation. Plus forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about getting tax documents from reluctant spouses and their accountants, and then discusses red flags that show up in credit-card transactions in the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money,' and Scott Davies, chief investment officer at CDAM, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says the economy looks like it can avoid a hard landing, and that should be enough to keep the stock market performing above investors' expectations. turning any downturn into a buying opportunity in conditions that he says should take the Standard and Poor's 500 up to about 4,800 over the next six to 12 months. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses four funds that have earned his interest -- and big chunks of his clients' money -- during the first half of 2023, Megan Sanctorum discusses a Bonus.com survey showing that nearly 40 percent of Americans are using credit-card rewards and cash-back offers to manage their day-to-day finances, and 'Turtle Trader' Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital Corp. talks about momentum and trend-following in the Market Call.
Phillip Wool, head of research at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that equities aren't really pricing in even the possibility of recession, which is setting up a correction "when the economy starts to visibly roll over," when "earnings forecasts and analyst revisions get more negative." He expects that correction in the next six to 12 months, noting that the current rally has been a false indicator because it has been so narrow, with two handfuls of stock driving the index. Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about small-company cash cows as a diversifier for the narrow market in his ETF of the Week, Jenn Tracy discusses an IPX1031 study showing that more than 60 percent of Americans wish that shopping malls would make a comeback, noting that nearly 70 percent of the populace lives within an hour of a dead or abandoned shopping mall. In the Market Call, Justin Carbonneau of Validea.com talks about the investing methods of the masters, and applies them to the stock market to find the buying signals today.
Andy McCormick, head of global fixed income/chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, says that investors are 'cyclically underinvested in fixed income for a long time,' due to the low yields that were available, and they are also under-represented in foreign bonds -- which are not facing the inverted yield curve that's happening here -- and so diversifying into safe domestic and foreign bonds makes sense as a way to ride out current volatility. Julie Ramhold of DealNews.com sets us up for the coming Amazon Prime Days, and what investors should expect to save big on and how Amazon's competitors will also offer good deals to watch for, Matt Brannon discusses a recent survey by Clever Real Estate which showed that nearly 60 percent of millennials are spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing, and that many members of that generation don't think they will ever be able to afford a home. And in the Market Call, Simon Lack of SL Advisros and the American Energy Independence Index talks midstream and energy companies.
Brett Wander, chief investment officer for fixed income strategies at Schwab Asset Management, says that if yields start to fall in money markets -- which will happen whenever interest rates get cut -- he would expect investors to turn to credit to get better returns. With that in mind, he thinks investors should be looking at investment-grade and high-yield credit now. He also suggests that investors go out the yield curve now -- even though it seems like they're not being paid for the risk -- to lock in the long-term rates and reduce reinvestment risk. Michael Sincere -- author of Michael Sincere's Long-Term Trader -- says the technical conditions suggest that the market is likely to keep drifting higher through the summer before taking a hit in the fall when current worries take root. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about finding the treasure map to uncover where a spouse might be hiding money, and Joe Rinaldi of Quantum Financial Advisors talks stocks and ETFs int he Market Call.
Lyle Fitterer, senior portfolio manager at Baird, says investors should not jump the gun expecting rate cuts just because the Federal Reserve has paused its hiking cycle and some pundits think the next move could be down. Fitterer thinks the Fed will at least keep rates higher for longer, possibly hiking some more later this year, with the economy likely to slow down into a soft landing or mild recession. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discussed the site's recent survey showing that a majority of Americans are uncomfortable with their level of emergency savings, with fewer than half having saved three months worth of expenses to guard against job loss or other personal catastrophe. And David Trainer, president of New Constructs, reaffirms three recent Danger Zone picks -- Cava, Warby Parker and Lucid Group -- for very different reasons; CAVA had a big pop off its IPO, WRBY hit New Constructs' targets as a short but have enough room to run lower that Trainer is sticking with it as a downer, and Lucid recently hit a new low despite a big influx of cash that took it off the firm's list of Zombie stocks but only forestalled the trouble that Trainer feels lies ahead.
Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning for Charles Schwab, discusses the firm's 2023 Modern Wealth Survey, which showed that Americans feel they need $2.2 million to actually 'be wealthy,' but just $560,000 to 'feel wealthy,' noting that the difference involves lifestyle, health and happiness considerations. Clearly, however, the old standard goal of being a millionaire is insufficient, and Williams said it has been outdated for years. Also on the show, Mickey Schleien managing director of equity research at Ladenburg Thalmann and Co. discusses how business-development companies have been impacted by rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy, Aaron Collett discusses the private-credit market -- which he says hasn't had a down year in more than three decades -- but also the benefits of accessing it by using cryptocurrency and, in the Market Call, Kevin Rendino of 180 Degree Capital covers Graham-Dodd style value investing in small- and micro-cap stocks.
Aditi Javeri Gokhale, chief strategy officer at Northwestern Mutual, says that the average American expects to retire two years later than they did just a year ago, one of several key findings in the latest data release from the firm's 2023 Planning & Progress Study out today. She notes that Americans expect to need $1.27 million to retire, and that most have less than 10 percent of that amount saved. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a brand new fund from PIMCO, that launches today, his ETF of the Week. Plus Alyssa Stankiewicz, research analyst at Morningstar discusses anti-ESG investing and Sam Burns, chief strategist at Mill Street Research, brings his quantitative approach to stocks in the Market Call.
Duke University professor Campbell Harvey, senior advisor at Research Affiliates, says that the yield-curve inversion the U.S. economy is facing is the worst, most-dangerous kind of inverted conditions, and that the Federal Reserve is steering us increasingly toward a hard landing. Harvey is the researcher whose work pointed out the correlation between inverted yield curves and recessions, and he does not think the current economy has any hope of bucking the trend, particularly if high rates put stress on more banks. Also on the show, Chuck Bell, advocacy program director for Consumer Reports, discusses how much money Americans are really losing to hidden and junk fees that President Biden and Congress are currently trying to get under better control. Plus, Katherine Roy of Edward Jones discusses the firm's recent study showing how many Americans have faced cannonball events – major challenges that can derail a financial plan -- or curveballs, relatively minor occurrences that cause setbacks, and how they have recovered frmo those challenges.
Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management says that the stock market is still reacting as if the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates before the end of this year, ignoring the likelihood that the central bank instead follows the data and pushes to get rates to 6 percent before holding steady for longer. He sees a soft landing and mild recession ahead for the economy. Indrani De, global head of investment research at FTSE Russell discusses the 'Russell Reconstitution' process of updating the firm's indexes -- which is being completed this week -- and what the benchmark's changes say about the market and economy at this time. Plus, Marty Fridson discusses 'The Little Book of Picking Top Stocks,' which encourages pursuing big winners in addition to maintaining a balanced, traditional investment approach, and in the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about how it's not gender but instead an imbalance of power and knowledge that is at the root of most couples' money problems.
Chris Marangi, co-chief investment officer for value at the Gabelli Funds, says the market is starting to focus on growth and the Federal Reserve's ability to delay and minimize recession, and he believes the central bank will get the job done. Marangi says in The NAVigator segment that 'the new normal' is one where inflation is higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent and growth is below trend, which he expects will create opportunities far beyond the handful of stocks that have driven market gains this year. Eric Gerster of AlphaCore Wealth Advisory says in the Talking Technicals segment that the range-bound market has been moving the range higher, and is likely to keep headed that way for the remainder of the year, Masa Takeda of the Hennessy Japan Fund discusses the expanding growth opportunities in the world's third-largest economy in The Big interview, and John Barr of the Needham Funds talks growth investing in the Market Call.
Michael Lowenberg, portfolio manager for the Modern Capital Tactical Opportunities fund, says that years pf interest rates being held artificially low has created opportunities for investors looking for income now, at a point where cash can be a more tactical investment choice and closed-end funds offer good opportunities to buy income streams at a discount. He's in for the Market Call today, but Bryan Shipley of Arnerich Massena discusses behavioral economics and just how hard it is for investors to buy into financial assets at times when they are on sale. Plus, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to a famous brand-name index fund -- but one that's not the standard measure of the market these days -- for his ETF of the Week, and retirement columnist Brett Arends of MarketWatch discusses how seniors are more worried about running out of money than they are about death.
Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation for GMO, says that recessions come and go and don't leave 'much of alasting mark on either the economy or the markets,' so while he expects the ecoomy to go through a recession soon, he's not sure it matters to long-term investors, particularly those in value stocks, as he talks about a recent paper debunking the idea that underpriced stocks door poorly during economic downturns. Also on the show Susan Fahy of VantageScore says that the firm's most recent Credit Gauge shows that the K-shaped recovery is continuing to punish the have-nots; she also notes that there are some signs of stress for consumers based on current credit behaviors. In the Market Call, Ken Applegate, lead portfolio manager for Wasatch International Growth and Wasatch Select International talks about investing now around the world.
Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research says that the primary trends he is seeing right now are up, and he is expecting more of a breakout because we are in the early stages of a bull market, but while that trend is positive, Pring says he has low expectations for the current cycle because the market is in the process of transitioning from a secular bull market to a secular bear market, which he thinks will leave markets range-bound for several years, even if the trend for the remainder of the year is generally positive. Also on the show, Haydar Haba of Andra Capital talks the future of global de-dollarization and his take on how artificial intelligence compares to 'revolutions' of the past, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen points to the hidey holes used to obscure cash in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money' and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks 'beat and replace' investing in the Market Call.
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says that while the firm's research shows that 73 percent of companies are overstating their core earnings when adding in one-time events and other factors that are part of what's known as 'street earnings,' he sees five companies with the most overblown numbers as ready for a fall, identifying MGM Resorts, PG and E Corp, Boston Scientific, Fiserv and PPL Corp. Bruce Kelly, senior columnist at InvestmentNews, discusses the latest lawsuit facing financial guru Dave Ramsey, over recommendations about a time-share workout firm that did not, well, work out, deep-value investor Michael Campagna of Moerus Capital in the Market Call, and Chuck talks about the sneaky but necessary path a fund company took to get shareholders -- himself included -- to vote their proxy.
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that while the rally may seem range-bound, the recent upswing has pushed it past the range and started the next rally, one which he thinks could go by another 10 percent likely before the end of the year. De Kempenaer notes that while the rally has been fueled by a few stocks, the rally will be more broad, with small caps starting to participate. In The Big Interview, financial journalist Allan Sloan goes further on what he has labeled 'The Skinny Bull' and just how much our perceptions of the current year for the market are based on the actions of seven companies. Plus, Doug Baker, head of preferred securities at Nuveen, looks at how current market conditions have made it relatively easy to find paper that is yielding north of 7 percent, and notes that concerns over the financial services sector have made it possible to get that yield on sale now at discount levels that this area of the market rarely sees.
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says he expects the market 'to reverse the gains we have had year to date' and suggests investors will be better off in cash riding out the downturn, which he thinks will be stubborn and persistent even if the downdraft is not exceptionally steep. In the Market Call, Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer at Essex Investment Management, says that small-cap stocks are already discounting a recession, setting up 'a generational opportunity' for smaller companies to play catch up and outperform over the next two to five years. Plus, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, heads to China with his pick for the ETF of the Week.
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that he expects a short, shallow recession that starts no later than early into 2024, but he also says there is the potential for the economy to avoid the status of a recession while riding the U-shaped economic recovery through sub-par and sluggish growth. Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which dropped sharply a month ago and failed to rally this month despite a strong, solid move in the market, and Matt King, president of King Wealth Advisors in northern California talks mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Paul Seaton, managing director at Fulcrum Asset Management North America, thinks that persistent inflation and a potential recession leave the equity markets vulnerable during the second half of 2023, and while he is not expecting a volatile downturn as a result, he does think investors need to check their expectations and not get carried away by the market's gains to this point in the year. Ken Berman, founder and chief strategist at Gorilla Trades, says that the market's technicals are more mixed than they have been in years, creating a range-bound market where the downside is limited while the market takes time to gather the base for the start of the next secular bull market cycle. In the 'Find Me The Money' segment, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses the financial hide-and-seek games that some spouses start playing at a point when they start to believe that a marital split is likely. Plus, Matt Schulz of Lending Tree on how much parents are spending on average for their kids' extracurricular activities.
Howard Yaruss, professor at New York University and the author of 'Understandable Economics' says that while the stock market is up sharply this year, 'this is not a stock market on fire, this is a stock market 15 percent below it's peak.' The year's increase has been mostly due to a few technology/artificial-intelligence companies, but he does not believe the AI business is setting up a new bubble/crash, because their valuations haven't approached unreasonable; Yaruss also noted that he thinks the Fed will hold off on raising rates this month to see if inflation continues its slow decline. Also on the show, Jeff Ptak, chief ratings officer at Morningstar Inc., goes 'Off The News' on his research that showed that certain tactical asset allocation funds were much worse for investors than simply buying-and-holding a static portfolio, David Trainer of New Constructs issues a warning for the entire stock market over the coming earnings season, and Chuck explores the weird financial news.
Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares, says that any recession or economic downturn in the United States will wind up having spillover effects in China, where the economy is so geared to the West that it is the proverbial 'canary in the coal mine,' because if manufacturing there is slowing and exports are down, it reflects a sluggish economy in the U.S. and Europe. He sees improved potential for China and emerging markets, provided that the politicians on both sides can avoid trade conflicts and allow for improved trade. Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial Services, says that the stock market hasn't been climbin a wall of worry so much as a 'Wall of Meh,' but notes that economic mediocrity is creating opportunities for long-term investors in closed-end funds to buy into discounts now and get paid off as early as the second half of this year, when he expects a 'generalized recovery' from today's worrisome issues. Plus, Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors talks technical analysis and says the range-bound market is likely to see the upper limits on the current market swings move higher -- by more than 10 percent -- before the year ends.
Kristof Gleich, founder and chief investment officer at Harbor Capital Advisors, says investors should be surprised that the economy hasn't gone into inflation, but notes that the market has a 'genuine inflation problem' that is persistent and structural and likely to linger for a year or two, at least, as the Federal Reserve struggles to get the pace of rising costs down to 2 percent. As a result, he expects more volatility from the market, with more vibrant rallies like we are seeing now balanced out by more vicious snapbacks/ Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi responds to the market's narrow leadership with a counter-intuitive play, making the equal-weighted version of a popular index his ETF of the Week, Christian Mitchel discusses the first data release of Northwestern Mutual's 2023 Progress and Planning Study, notig that investors are braced for impact with a downturn, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the resources he reads and uses for help in guiding his portfolio.
Michael Sansoterra, chief investment officer at Silvant Capital, says the artificial intelligence boom currently fueling a Wall Street rally is here to stay -- though he notes the stocks are not recession- or crash-proof thanks largely to real earnings and sustainable growth curves. During the Internet bubble days around the turn of the century, companies were bid up on hope and hype, but Sansoterra notes that artificial intelligence stocks -- a surprisingly small group that is growing rapidly --- have substance that should give them longevity. Also on the show, financial adviser Brian Kuderna discusses his recent book, 'What Should I Do with My Money?' and Bankrate.com's Ted Rossman discusses side hustle activity and why people keep working side jobs, what they're trying to achieve and how many hustlers think they'll be doing odd jobs forever.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs, says that the initial public offering for fast-casual restaurant chain Cava Group is another poster child for bad new issues, a 'rip-off' with 'the private equity holders hoping to get bailed out by unsuspecting public investors.' He compared Cava to WeWork, an IPO so troubled that it wound up being canceled; he's hoping the Cava deal suffers a similar fate. In the 'Find Me The Money' segment, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses financial infidelity and the slippery slope that many people take in crossing the line from normal financial behaviors to troubling ones, Allison Hadley discusses a RetirementInvestments.com survey looking at the ways and the extents many parents are going to in order to support their adult children, and The Book Interview features author and comedian Jamie Loftus on her book 'RawDog: The Naked Truth About Hot Dogs," a look at both the meat-packing industry and some of the best hot-doig joints in America.
Andy Kapyrin, co-chief investment officer at CI RegentAtlantic Private Wealth, says that in past debt-ceiling debates -- notably heated times like 2011 and 2013 -- stock market investors made times volatile, creating an incentive for Washington to act, but with current volatility being muted, Kapyrin sees ratings agencies like Fitch applying pressure that should help politicians to resolve the issue. While Kapyrin notes that the Federal Reserve has always struggled to deliver a soft landing, there are signs that it can at least escape the current cycle with nothing worse than a mild recession. Also on the show, Duncan Farley of the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund discusses how rising rates and inflation have created more and different opportunities in the public and private credit markets, delivering the potential for double-digit returns without correlation to the stock market, Jerremy Newsome of Real-Life Trading talks about how investors can make money playing both sides against the middle of the current range-bound market, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds discusses innovative, disruptive companies in the Market Call.
Mike Foss, former partner at Brown Advisory and former manager of the Brown Advisory Equity Income fund, says he expects a slowdown, but high inflation and low unemployment leave us without the makings for a strong recession. Meanwhile, he believes interest rates will remain 'higher for longer than bond market investors actually think.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes his ETF of the Week pick an issue that builds its portfolio around stocks that are popular among hedge funds, Claire Martin-Tellis discusses a survey showing that people living in higher-income areas are much more likely to be targeted by scammers, plus we revisit a recent Market Call interview with absolute-value investor Brian Frank of the Frank Funds.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that he is expecting economic contraction for the last half of the year and into 2024, but notes that the market looks ahead and tends to get optimistic about half way through a recession. He's not expecting the economic slowdown to bring a major market meltdown, but by the middle of the downturn he expects signals to turn to where opportunistic investors with multi-year time horizons will want to use the pullback as a chance to buy on the cheap. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses research showing that about one-in -four investors has moved money this year out of stocks and to fixed income or savings accounts, Chuck answers a listener's question about the process for becoming an accredited investor -- the kind who can invest in hedge funds, private-equity deals and equity crowdfunding -- and Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration talks stocks in the Market Call.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that the market is being buffeted by a lot of forces, but is mostly climbing the wall of worry, making it a time to be neutral between stocks and a recovering bond market, staying more domestic over international in both fixed income and equity due to international risks and despite good valuations overseas, while waiting for the market and economy to negotiate a soft landing and possible brief recession. Likewise, D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, says that technical analysis supports the current range-bound market staying within its range for a while longer, thoug he notes that if the market can break out of the range to the upside -- which it is close to right now -- it could pick up 10 percent by year's end. Plus, Julie Ramhold of DealNews.com discusses what to shop for in Memorial Day sales and what to leave for later in the summer, and forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about proving your case and using the results to get money back in the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money.'
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Gretchen Morgensen, co-author of 'These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs—and Wrecks—America,' discusses the wide-ranging impacts that private equity firms are having in America, running a large percentage of nursing homes of private equity and hospital emergency departments, media companies and much more. She notes that leveraging companies in order to purchase them and re-sell them at a profit is detrimental to the business, while enriching the wheeler-dealers, leaving a 'circle of pain' after private equity takeovers. Also on the show, Laura Geritz of Rondure Global Advisors says that the entire world is dealing with the inflation problem, but that it impacts smaller companies less, meaning there are good buys among small firms around the globe. She notes that she particularly likes the Mexico market now, dislikes Korea and is working through the complexities of China. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits an old Danger Zone pick -- a zombie stock that he says is headed to zero -- after a recent earnings surprise made the market consider whether the troubled company remains viable.
Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, sees the stock market as being stuck in its current range for months, possibly testing October lows while it waits to get more clarity on the Federal Reserve's position on ending the rate-hike cycle and starting cuts. Declines and weakness are buying opportunities, Moya says, because 'this market is looking for a big move,' with money on the sidelines looking for a breakout that will happen only once investors are confident with where inflation and rates are heading. In The Big Interview, Barry Martin of the Shelton Equity Income Fund discusses defensive investing and covered-call strategies and how they are working in the current period of volatility without much direction. Also, in The NAVigator segment, Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer/head of fixed-income strategies at Calamos Investments, says he expects interest rates to settle in and remain stable for quite a while before trending down, though he expects heightened volatility in longer-term bonds; and in the Market Call, Brian Huckstep, chief investment officer at Advyzon Investment Management, talks the macro picture and the exchange-traded funds best suited for his current outlook.
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that investors should lean into the currently inverted yield curve and buy bonds for f longer maturities so that they can lock down. High current interest rates before the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates. Bory also notes that he expects the federal government to avoid a true default but explains that a downgrade from ratings agencies won’t be the big deal most authorities expect. Plus Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi turns to a small-cap co weed-call fund for his ‘ETFof the Week,’ and Raymond Bridges, portfolio manager of the recently opened Bridges Capital Tactical ETF talks stylized stock investing in the Market Call
John Porter, chief investment officer at Newton Investment Management, says the market has traded in a tight range for almost 10 months and he expects it to stay in that range while the economy sorts out its unknowns until a clear picture emerges, which he thinks will take another six to nine months. Meanwhile, to produce reasonable results in a choppy market, he says money managers will need to increase their turnover and trade more, taking advantage of the short, tight fluctuations even as the market has no bigger trend. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez discusses the new study from WalletHub.com showing that U.S. households now have $17 trillion in household debt, more than $140,000 per household, Carter Malloy of AcreTrader.com discusses the benefits and expected returns to investing in farmland and timberlands, and Chuck celebrates what would have been the 70th birthday of his brother by talking about the delicate balance between making money and enjoying life.
John Blank, chief equity strategist/chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says the range-bound market is going to stick around unchanged until the Federal Reserve changes its policies. Once inflation comes down, Blank says 'the market is going to rally like you've never seen.' But even now, Blank says the economy is having its soft landing -- and has been in one for some time -- no matter how much most economists protest that there hasn't been any landing yet. Also on the show, Scott Fulford, author of 'The Pandemic Paradox: How the COVID Crisis Made Americans More Financially Secure,' survey researcher Jenn Tracy on a study showing about how Americans are -- or aren't -- pampering themselves during tough economic times, and, in the 'Find Me The Money' segment, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the documents and paper trail that you need and how to follow them to find the proof of financial infidelity.
John Jennings, author of 'The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown,' says that investors have proven throughout times by their actions that less is more effective during times when every move looks sketchy. Getting over your compulsion to do something, he notes, will help your portfolio thrive in times when the market isn't doing so well. Also on the show, Megan Moncrief, chief executive officer at the travel-insurance platform Squaremouth, discusses the high prices travelers are facing, paying and insuring for their summer vacations, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a popular stock name back in 'The Danger Zone,' noting that popularity can't save it, and Chuck takes a listener's question on how to deal financially with adult children returning home to live.
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that the market is suggesting the possibility of a rate cut coming from the Federal Reserve by September, and that won't happen if conditions are fine. With a solid labor market and low unemployment, Krosby says the market is still range-bound and struggling to sort things out, but the futures market is signalling that trouble must be afoot. Also on the show, Jim Baker, co-head of energy infrastructure at Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors, talks about the strong opportunity in the sector over the next few years, despite recession concerns, and Wade Pfau returns to the show to discuss the new edition of his 'Retirement Planning Guidebook.'
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance, says the resilience of the economy has been surprising, staving off recession longer than he expected and allowing the market to fight off headwinds that still seem poised to create a recession, whether it comes late this year or into 2024. Zaccarelli does say the economy's strength will put the Federal Reserve in a tough spot, having to decide if it needs to increase rates again, and potentially pushing the eventual recession into a hard landing for the market. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes his 'ETF of the Week' an agriculture strategy fund powered by artificial intelligence, Matt Brannon of Clever Real Estate discusses a survey of home renters who say at alarmingly high rates that they have been priced out of the American Dream of home ownership, and Peter Crane, president of Crane Data, discusses money-market funds and their suddenly competitive yields and how they will hold up in a world looking at banking crisis and possible government default.
Herb Greenberg, senior editor at Empire Financial Research, says that the overlooked story in the drop in bank stock prices is the role that exchange-traded funds likely played in making it happen. He discusses his recent article on the subject, which points to the way ETFs are traded as a significant contributing factor to the big drop in banking stocks, and notes that the same phenomenon could impact other market sectors that get hit with bad news in the future. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the huge drop in investor sentiment during April and how it impacted all major components of the Economic Optimism Index, and portfolio manager Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stocks in the Market Call.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research says the current range-bound market is 'building up energy' and if the market can break through 4,200 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it is feasible that the market can reach new, record highs by the end of the year. But there is no clarity on the direction of the market, and if there is continued small-cap weakness and other trouble spots and the SP500 drops below 3,800 it could fall as low as 3,400 before any rally can start. Kosar notes that until the market shows more signs of clarity, he'd avoid betting on the direction of the market. Also on the show, Find Me the Money with forensic accountant Tracy Coenen focuses on how 'fair and honest' disclosure can't be taken for granted in many divorce cases, Chuck discusses the NASDAQ Composite officially exiting bear-market territory, and author Rob Cross, discusses 'The Microstress Effect: How Little Things Pile Up and Create Big Problems--and What to Do About It.'
Absolute-value investor Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund says that with cash now paying close to 5 percent, it's 'gotten a lot easier to go to cash,' but it also has raised the bar on stocks and for how investors should set their expectations. 'If you don't think you're going to be making more than 5 percent on a stock,' Frank says in the Market Call, 'why are you buying it if cash is paying you [5 percent] now?' Also on the show, Lewis Black, chief executive officer at Almonty Industries, talks about the market for tungsten and how the metal has the potential to be the cause of tough economic conditions and geopolitical football; David Trainer of New Constructs puts Kenvue -- the spin-off of Johnson and Johnson consumer brands -- in the Danger Zone in its first few days after going IPO, and Chuck answers a listener's question that goes to the heart of Brian Frank's discussion on going to cash, about whether cash returns are so good right now that a nervous investor might use bank accounts to ride out whatever the market dishes out next.
Alaina Anderson, co-portfolio manager of the William Blair International Leaders Fund, says investors should be looking abroad with their money right now because the market has reached an inflection point with international stocks being much more attractively valued than domestics, and having improved profitability and sustainable results now. Anderson warns that the global rate-hiking cycle may not be done, but says foreign stocks may be better positioned to ride out whatever central banks dish out next. Buck Klintworth, portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says it's a market of conflicting signals where the technicals can make a case for just about any outcome. He sees a bullish Standard and Poor's 500, but notes that much of the strength has been among the largest names, suggesting that the rally is not sustainable long-term. In The NAVigator segment, Christian Munafo, chief investment officer, in Liberty Street Advisors -- which runs the Private Shares Fund -- says there are two stories dominating the private equity markets, with high-performing well-financed private innovation companies being proverbial unicorns compared to less- differentiated, less-capitalized companies which are more prone than ever to failure due to conditions in the capital markets. In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners, talks brand-name, large-cap stocks.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer, Hennion and Walsh Asset Management, says that while the Federal Reserve has been trying to kill or diminish demand, it hasn't done a great job bringing inflation closer to its target level of 2 percent. As a result, Mahn thinks that the Fed and investors will have to live with inflation around the 3 percent level into 2024, and says that the Fed may ultimately have to accept that higher inflation is here to stay and strongly resistant to the traditional methods for curtailing inflation. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR his pick for 'ETF of the Week,' noting that while the sector is defensive in nature, the fund has been on a roll that has pushed it to all-time high levels; and Joe Boskovich Sr., chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Old West Investment Management makes his debut in the Money Life Market Call talking value stocks and concentrated portfolios.
Christopher Mizer, founder of Vivaris Capital, says that alternatives were in a hot spot a year ago -- when stocks were 'frightfully overvalued' -- and investors needed investments that had building cash flows and organic growth potential, but now with the market valued more reasonably, the role that alternatives are playing is to reduce long-term volatility and to offer a steadiness that the market doesn't seem to have right now. He discusses climate technology and other alternative investments that investors might consider now. Also on the show, James Nelson, author of 'The Insider's Edge to Real Estate Investing,' talks about investing in real estate at a time of high interest rates and wild fluctuations in property prices, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the site's survey of how consumers are planning for summer vacations but altering their itineraries to deal with inflation, and Chuck answers a listener's question about whether there are any star mutual fund managers left and if investors should seek them out.
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research, says that with the domestic stock market showing more stocks making new lows than highs, the U.S. market is increasingly challenged. Witht hat in mind, Delwiche says investors should be looking overseas because 'the rest of the world increasingly looks like it is in an uptrend and poised to continue making new highs.' Also on the show, in 'Find Me the Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses financial infidelity and how and when people cross the line and create relationship problems with their money behaviors, Chuck answers a listener's question about how any potential government default will hit home, and we revisit a recent Market Call conversation with Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, makes pet-insurer Trulanuon the 33rd member of his firm’s list of ‘zombie stocks,’ nothing that the company still has a long runway — nearly two years before he expects it to be bankruptcy — but almost no hope. Chuck discusses real expertise and the importance of vetting experts at a time when most news and information sources are looking to fill space. Plus Craig Martin discusses the latest research from J.D. Power showing how unhappy self-determined investors are with their results, and Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal gives his take on last week’s Morningstar Investment Conference, as well as on the current sentiment of investors.
It's the third and final day of interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, and Joel Dickson, global head of advice methodology at Vanguard, carries the dicussion on the classic 60-40 portfolio further -- rivaling Catherine LeGraw from GMO who you heard on Thursday's show -- saying that the classic stock-bonds mix remains the most simple, straightforward, cost-effective solution for investors who can ride out the bumps and bruises along the way. But he's the closer on a show that starts with Super Mario -- Mario Gabelli of the Gabelli Funds -- returning for The NAVigator to discuss his long-time love for closed-end fund investing. Plus, Chuck chats with Wade Pfau, a leading authority on annuities, reverse mortgages and structured income products, Tara York of the alternatives platform Luma Financial Technologies, Morningstar's director of personal finance Christine Benz, ETF product specialist Nick Elward of Natixis Investment Managers, and global deep-value investor Michael Campagna of Moerus Capital.
It's Day Two of Money Life at Morningstar, featuring interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago. One of the themes of this year’s event has been the rise and fall and rebirth of 60-40 portfolios and Catherine LeGraw, partner at GMO, takes the side that the default allocation is too blunt to work for everyone, leaving them with too much risk which ultimately short-circuits their ability to reach their goals. Also on this show, Steve Romick of the FPA Crescent fund, Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler, John Hoffman of Invesco, Hunter Hayes of Intrepid Capital Management, Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth and Shana Sissel of Banrion Capital. Plus Tom Lydon of VettaFi with the ETF of the Week!
It's Money Life at Morningstar, the first of three days of interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab and Co., says that the market appears to be banking on a near-term recession, in which it takes the pain and the ill-tasting medicine, thereby allowing the Federal Reserve to take its foot off the economic brake. As a result, a recession sooner rather than later would be helpful for the economy. She kicks off seven interviews, including "Super Mario" -- legendary fund manager Mario Gabelli of the Gabelli Funds -- bond fund manager Warren Pierson of the Baird Funds, asset-allocation strategist Som Priestley of T. Rowe Price, Dan Lefkovitz of Morningstar Indexes, Nate Velarde of Chautauqua Capital talking international investing, and Alison Susko of Asset Map, a fin-tech company helping investors get a better handle on their finances.
Perth Tolle, founder of Life and Liberty Indexes -- the basis for the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF -- says that companies based in countries run by autocrats are held back in many different ways, not the least of which is that they must compete for the favor of the government and the people in power, rather than being able to focus on serving the market and customers, and that investors who want to avoid much of the headline-making geopolitical risk present globally today from creeping into their portfolio will make freedom a factor in where they invest. Also on the show, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen, introduces us to Jackie and Derrick, the main characters in her book 'Find Me the Money,' and discusses financial dishonesty and the breakdown of joint financial control in marriage. Plus, former Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist Jonathan Clements -- now the editor at HumbleDollar.com -- discusses his new book, 'My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom and You Can Too,' and in the Market Call, Matt Lockridge, head of U.S. value for Westwood Holdings talks about finding the right kind of underpriced stocks to benefit from current market conditions.
Perth Tolle,founder of Life and Liberty Indexes -- the basis for the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF -- says that companies based in countries run by autocrats are held back in many different ways, not the least of which is that they must compete for the favor of the government and the people in power, rather than being able to focus on serving the market and customers, and that investors who want to avoid much of the headline-making geopolitical risk present globally today from creeping into their portfolio will make freedom a factor in where they invest. Also on the show, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen, introduces us to Jackie and Derrick, the main characters in her book 'Find Me the Money,' and discusses financial dishonesty and the breakdown of joint financial control in marriage. Plus, former Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist Jonathan Clements -- now the editor at HumbleDollar.com -- discusses his new book, 'My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom and You Can Too,' and in the Market Call, Matt Lockridge, head of U.S. value for Westwood Holdings talks about finding the right kind of underpriced stocks to benefit from current market conditions.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that investors are tempted in today's high-inflation environment to pursue stocks with high-but-fixed dividends, trying to generate any sort of positive real return. Instead, Hyman says investors should be looking for dividend growers -- companies consistently raising payouts -- rather than high current yields, because a stock with a dividend that's not growing 'is basically a fixed-coupon bond, and that's the worst thing to have in an inflationary environment.' Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs looks at an energy company that is underpriced and has room to do particularly well in a sector that he says is poised for solid growth, Sam Huisache discusses the latest survey from Clever Real Estate, showing that two thirds of the members of Generation X don't think they will be able to retire by age 65, and Hunter Doble of Hotchkis and Wiley Mid Cap Value talks growing value stocks in the Market Call.
Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equity strategies at Research Affiliates, says that the high probability of an upcoming recession is being priced into the market, and the more a downturn gets priced into stocks, the less investors have to fear because the damage is being done in advance. As a result, she says investors need to be looking for the inflection point where they want to buy in to get ahead of a recovery, even if that means digging in and holding for as much as three years to see the rebound play out. Also on the show, Roxanna Islam of VettaFi discusses how exchange-traded funds that invest in closed-end funds give investors diversified portfolios -- and all the benefits of investing deeply in the closed-end space -- in a one-stop shopping wrapper. In the Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund talks about how the fund is dealing with high inflation -- since inflation is a component of its stock-picking methodology -- holding more cash and waiting for the right opportunity to put more cash to work.
Jake Jolly, head of investment analysis at BNY Mellon Investment Management, says that recent turmoil in the banking industry 'will do the additional work' of tightening credit conditions to get inflation down, but creating a recession in the process, with the downturn taking hold late this year or in 2024. Because this recession is 'a typical, monetary-policy induced recession,' Jolly expects that policy can normalize quickly, which should limit the downturn to the short time it takes to slay the inflation dragon. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a niche-focused financial-services fund his ETF of the Week, noting that it could start trending positively as the banking sector moves past recent problems. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Whitney Tilson of Empire Financial Research.
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management, says that we are looking at 'unusually uncertain times given what the market is trying to process right now,' specifically how the increased cost of credit and the decreased availability of credit will work its way through the economy. St. Aubin -- who uses a quantitative, tactical approach -- says the market could go in any direction from here, but he notes that there is more downside risk here even though the economy appears to be only facing a mild recession. He says that equity markets look vulnerable now, which should make investors consider risk management to ride things out. In the Market Call segment, David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners, talks about picking highly concentrated stock portfolios, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about whether or not to pay down debt -- rather than plow money into savings -- while inflation is running higher than standard dividend yields or interest rates on bank deposits.
Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says that investors should be looking for ways to play a slowing economy and a light recession, and she says that international stocks are likely to outperform U.S. stocks while that plays out. She also is adding to domestic fixed-income exposure with both Treasuries and high-yield corporates, noting that the latter is an asset class she would not have touched as recently as last year. The show also debuts a new regular feature called 'Find Me the Money,' featuring forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talking all about the importance of honest family conversations and disclosures about money. Plus, Matt Brannon discusses a recent Clever Real Estate survey on how Americans are feeling and handling financial stress, and Chuck answers a question about the new Apple savings account, the technology giant's latest foray into the financial world.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders’ Almanac, discusses 'calendar effects' -- the traditional 'Sell in May and go away; buy in October to get yourself sober' strategy that may not kick in this year until as late as June, but which should involve avoiding the worst of the year and a lot of market softness but no recession. Hirsch notes that since World War II the market has made most of its gains between October and April and this year is no exception, which will leave the market looking at a squishy, back-and-forth summer before things pick up again near the end of the year. Also on the show, Liz Weston of NerdWallet discusses how people can and should consider Social Security in ways that will maximize their payouts, delivering the best long-term impacts of the program; David Trainer of New Constructs puts First Solar -- a stock that's a darling of ESG funds -- into the Danger Zone, anticipating an earnings miss, and Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses the site's latest survey showing what happens when parents give children access to their credit and debit cards.
Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says that the economy is headed for a mild recession likely to hit home during the second half of 2023, but she notes that last year's big drop in the stock market did a lot of work to the downside, and while the market's hot start to this year means there is room for more back-sliding, she thinks those declines are mostly buying opportunities for the recovery that will follow the recession. Mahajan isn't expecting a blockbuster bounce-back, but says that recoveries tend to be at least as long and strong as the downturns they follow. Also on the show, Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, discusses the municipal bond market thus far in 2023 -- when it has been swinging wildly around headlines and macro changes -- and says investors need to drill down to look at individual issuers to deal better with the mixed signals the market is sending. In the Market Call, Clark Kendall, chief executive officer at Kendall Capital Management, talks stocks.
Harin De Silva, manager of the Allspring U.S. Long/Short Equity, says that there are a lot of companies 'priced for perfection in a slowing economy in a slowing global business cycle,' creating a big opportunity for investors who are shorting stocks, betting that they will fall in price. De Silva says that the long side of his job -- finding stocks to buy -- is challenging, and he notes that his biggest concerns right now are wildcard risks like the banking crisis, war and more. De Silva expects the situation to return to more normal times -- favoring the buys and moving away from the shorts -- by the fall. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a big, brand-name fund full of giant brand-name stocks his ETF of the Week, financial adviser Robert Levitt talks about how Americans may find that their retirement savings lasts longer abroad, but notes that there are challenges to making the move, and Chuck discusses what Wednesday's inflation news does for the future attractiveness of inflation-protected U.S. savings bonds.
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that the stock market is close to its fair value right now, but that 'the expensive industries the way we measure value are leading and the bargains are lagging and very sluggish,' a situation that is unsustainable and that will lead to volatile, choppy, sideways markets for the next few months. Callahan says he is holding more cash than normal but he expects to be fully invested by the fall of 2023, when he expects the market to be 5 to 7 percent higher than it is today. Also on the show, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., discusses the 'golden handcuffs' that the rapid increase in mortgage rates have put on many long-time homeowners, locking them into their properties and altering the housing market's prospects in ways typically overlooked by buyers and sellers, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that a majority of Americans are considering job changes despite of or because of current economic uncertainties, and Chuck answers a listener question on how the government's debt-ceiling problems could affect investors in ultra-safe money-market funds.
Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says there are 'so many different headwinds' facing the market that 'we feel we're not quite through this yet.' He says that macro-level indicators are suggesting that the market will either re-test prior lows or set new ones, noting that current conditions suggest that there are enough positive indicators that investors should 'sit on your hands' and stand pat while watching the technicals play out. Also on the show, Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors and publisher of the Forbes/Fridson Income Securities Investor newsletter, says that 'the very rapid, most aggressive tightening of of rates that we have seen in a number of decades is behind us,' and that the bond market is 'more normal' than it has been in years, even as pockets like junk bonds and others are still a big concern for investors. In the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about buying growth stocks in a slow/no-growth environment.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says the market's wild swings after its hot start are the kind of action investors will have to put up with until the market sees inflation start to give way and confidence grows that the Federal reserve has made real progress. That said, he expects a recession this year but notes that the economy is lacking the conditions that typically make a downturn deep and protracted so he believes it will be mild and brief before a recovery starts. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, president at Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses private equity and debt in closed-end funds as a way of diversifying yield and risk in portfolios now, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts another electric vehicle firm onto the list of 'zombie stocks' in The Danger Zone, and Bill Davis of Stance Capital and the Stance Equity ESG Large Cap Core ETF talks stocks in The Market Call.
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. says investors should minimize portfolio moves — mostly to place a slightly greater emphasis on bonds — as they won’t be waiting long to see a mild recession lead to a reasonably robust recovery. Schutte expects small-cap companies and international investments to be among the leading group, with large stocks suffering during the decline Also on the show, Tom Rieman, head of wealth solutions at J.D. Power, discusses the firm’s look at how investors are largely dissatisfied with their current financial advisers after struggling through 2022, and Tom Lydon from VettaFi makes a fund with an entrepreneurial focus his ETF of the Week
Alan Gayle, president of ViaNova Investment Management, says that positive economic fundamentals are being tempered and offset by higher inflation and interest rates, giving investors a laundry list of concerns over growth and the stock market, but he notes that the bond market is looking more like its old self than it has in years, giving investors asset allocation choices that will help them ride out the brewing economic storm. Also on the show, Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, discusses why gold has been on the upswing despite not effectively playing its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last few years, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com covers a survey showing that consumers aren't effectively using credit card rewards, and Chuck talks about how now is a time when investors may want to focus on 'active holding' rather than buying or selling securities.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says a mild recession is coming, and he is diversifying internationally as part of his moves to deal with it, noting that international markets not only have valuation advantages against their U.S. counterparts, but as a currency play, noting that a rally in the yen or the Euro would create a tailwind for investors. In The Book Interview, Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist of The Oxford Club and author of 'Get Rich With Dividends' -- the new third edition was released today -- talks about dividend strategies in a rising-rate environment. Plus, Chuck takes a contentious listener question about laddered portfolios now, and Sam Huisache of Clever Real Estate talks about the alarming rate of inflation in home prices compared to the higher prices consumers are paying on everything else.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says he is doubtful that the market's current rally can go on for too much longer, and when he sees profit levels decline it will be time to lighten up on equities and buckle up for a recession and downturn. In The Big Interview, he says the firm is diversifying and nimble, with real assets, TIPs and other fixed-income securities providing ballast to a portfolio that includes a lot of international exposure to balance out domestic equities. Greg McBride, chief financial strategist at BankRate.com discusses the firm's recent survey showing that online savings accounts have become much more attractive, but investors and savers aren't using them despite their improved payouts, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carrier Global Corp. -- with highly overstated street earnings -- in the Danger Zone, and Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments talks about 'Warren Buffett style value investing in The Market Call.
Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says that 'people are way underallocated,' nervously sitting in cash and Treasuries while waiting for market troubles to play out, but when those investors get FOMO -- a fear of missing out -- and the money starts flowing back into investments, it will lift both the stock and bond markets. DeGarner expects a big comeback in 60-40 portfolios this year and says that several commodities markets are now trading at levels that present a good opportunity for investors to get back in, in turn spurring the FOMO of investors to help the rally pick up speed. In The Big Interview, Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, notes that the year has been a surprise due to the banking crisis and other problems that didn't stop the NASDAQ from having its best quarter in years, and he expects the market to digest problems and get healthier over the next six months. In The NAVigator segment, Cheryl Pate of the Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust discusses the nation's banking concerns but notes that in those pains she sees 'a once-in-a-decade opportunity for the banking space.' And in the Market Call, Ken Laudan, manager of the Buffalo Large-Cap Growth fund, talks high-quality, defensive investing now.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says the current troubles with the banking industry and the market's struggles with inflation are setting the stage for a new cycle, noting that if inflation comes down and the Fed backs away from its stance it typically will improve conditions for investors. Levitt notes that investors are wondering whether the current situation looks like the 1990s -- when a downturn represented a great opportunity -- or like the 2008 financial crisis, where recovery took much longer, noting that he doesn't see conditions looking like they will result in the protracted, painful downturn. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, plays the uptrend in cryptocurrency with his pick for the ETF of the Week, and Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management, talks about finding growth at a reasonable price -- and what constitutes 'reasonable' -- in the Money Life Market Call.www.invesco.com/us
Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says that while headlines are driving investors to distraction, the stock market right now is neither too hot nor too cold. Other than regional banks, he says there's no blood in the streets, the market 'isn't screaming cheap or hugely overvalued either,' making this a time for investors to grind it out and work on their holding, rather than buying or selling. 'The key,' he says, 'is not in picking the next calamity, but avoiding the crazy nonsense.' Sarah Foster discusses her recent story on Bankrate.com on how inflation is damaging the finances of younger generations and how that has the potential to damage the economy as Gen Z and millennials adjust their spending and savings habits. And, in the Market Call, Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors looks at the macro picture and talks about which exchange-traded funds can take advantage of the current opportunities.
Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, expects a modest recession where investors can benefit from riding it out with a greater exposure to fixed income and a more-balanced portfolio, but he also notes that there are plenty of worrisome wildcards that could impact the market and economy. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market is going through 'a bottoming process,' but needs more confirmation that a new uptrend has developed before shifting from a current-defensive stance to something more aggressive; he is looking for better performance from growth stocks moving forward, noting that they typically thrive about six months after a rate-hike cycle peaks. Plus, in The Book Interview, author Liz Hoffman tells tales of pandemic perseverance and recovery as detailed in 'Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World's Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink.'
Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the last 15 months have shown a persistent lack of bullish sentiment, with roughly 20 of the 70 lowest readings ever for optimism in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, a weekly poll that dates back to 1987. Likewise, bearishness has been near record levels consistently. Rotblut notes that the survey did not show this kind of consistent high-pessimism/low-bullishness sentiment during the global financial crisis, the dot-com bust, the Gulf War and more. Also on the show, Mervin Jebaraj discusses the National Association for Business Economics study released today showing that more than 70 percent of economists believe the Federal Reserve will not be able to get headline inflation numbers to or below 4 percent this year. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs, singles out MGM Resorts International as the stock with the most overstated street estimates, and discusses how that is likely to translate into continued deeper declines, and Gary Bradshaw od the Hodges Funds talks about blue-chip stocks and growth stories in the current market during the Money Life Market Call.
Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that the market is just starting a whole lot of market pain that will continue into 2026 before reaching a real bottom and the start of another long-term buying opportunity. McClellan says there will be great trading opportunities within the downturn -- including the month of April -- but emphasized that the economy has a lot to digest before real recovery begins. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects a recession to begin in the second or third quarter of 2023, but says the decline is likely to be shallow, extending for six to 12 months depending on how the Federal Reserve responds to it. For investors looking to deal with those issues, Steve O’Neill, from RiverNorth says in The NAVigator segment that municipal bond closed-end funds are 'in the 99th percentile of cheapness,' making them a good relative bargain for investors willing to ride out the current storm. And in the Market Call, Allen Bond, head of research at Jensen Investment Management, discusses high-quality businesses at reasonable prices.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says that the Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it still needs to fight to get the Fed Funds rate above the rate of inflation to put the brakes on the economy, and while the Fed seemed to hint that it would only hike rates one more time this year, it's entirely possible that there will be more increases. What there won't be are rate cuts; McBride sizes up what it all means for consumers in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, turns to a popular and trending gold fund as an inflation/banking alternative with his 'ETF of the Week' and, in the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president at Simply Safe Dividends talks about 'dividend safety scores' and finding appropriate income levels given rising rates and inflation.
Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, says that the financial concerns springing from the current bank concerns are building a currency and economic crises for the rest of the world, noting that the situation has changed interest-rate expectations for central banks around the globe. He expects the Federal Reserve to follow the path set by the ECB -- Europe's central bank -- moderating expectations and hinting at rate cuts starting late this year, triggering significant market volatility as investors respond to the news. Also on the show, Stan Haithcock — Stan the Annuity Man - returns to help Chuck answer a listener’s question about dollar-cost averaging into annuity products, Chuck discusses stock-picking gone wrong and Jim Cramer in today’s wild markets, and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at Nixon Peabody Trust Co., talks stocks, funds and ETFs in the Money Life Market Call.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the stock market's current issues around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others has investors revisiting their feelings and emotions from the financial crisis of 2008. This '2008-itis' is leading them to act scared at a time when they should instead be doing a temperature check to decide if their asset allocation is appropriate for what lies ahead, which Janasiewicz sees as a mild recession later this year. In the Market Call, however, Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor say that he expects a deeper downturn and recession as the economy struggles for inflation significantly longer than most people have expected. Conrad says dividend-paying stocks can help investors ride out the turmoil, provided they are consistent and acquired at the right price. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest survey from Bankrate.com on how taxpayers are reacting and responding to current conditions as they plan ahead for refunds, and Ed Slott, founder of IRAhelp.com, helps Chuck answer a listener's question about whether convert all of their retirement assets into Roth accounts.
Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says he expects the stock market to end up in a ‘flattish trading range for 10 years, similar from 2000 to 2012,' but makes it clear that outcome is not going to be the fallout of current events in the banking industry but rather is the result of long-standing economic trends. Katie Reichart, director of equity strategies manager research at Morningstar, goes 'Off The News' discussing the impact that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has had on some mutual funds and how investors should react if their funds produce surprising results based on bad calls in the sector. Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a badly categorized 'mid-cap growth fund' into The Danger Zone and, in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Company and manager of the Abraham Fortress Fund, talks about managing risk while picking stock.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that the problem at the heart of the current banking crisis is the speed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, noting that it was nearly impossible for bankers to adjust their portfolios to absorb bond losses driven by those higher rates. Now, Doty says, the Fed may need to take steps to help inject liquidity back into the market -- even if that stops the progress made on inflation -- to give institutions a breather and stabilize the banking system. In the Big Interview, economist Lawrence Kotlikoff of MaxiFi.com says the current situation has the potential to develop into a full-blown, long-remembered crisis, and discusses what can be done to stop it from getting that far. In the Market Call, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi talks about investing in exchange-traded funds.
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus & Mellon, says that for all of the concerns investors have about the economy -- fears that have been heightened due to headlines about bank collapses -- economic activity remains strong and is likely to stay that way for much of the time the Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflation. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a banking fund that has been buffeted by current events as an exemplar for trend-following with his ETF of the Week, Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital -- which recently opened funds based on the picks of Jim Cramer -- discusses the pundit's call on Silicon Valley Bank, and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com answers a listener's question.
Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says that the market has overreacted to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, pricing in the start of Federal Reserve rate cuts -- rather than the hikes it had been expecting -- as if the problems with the troubled bank was systemic and likely to take down a lot of institutions. While acknowledging that the situation muddies the outlook, Weisman says that he doesn't think history will remember the bank's collapse as the thing 'that precipitated the end of this expansion, the end of this tightening cycle and the next crisis.' Also on the show, Nick Nefouse, global head of multi-asset retirement solutions at BlackRock discusses how the changing economic environment and rising yields are impacting target-date and life-cycle strategies, and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com answers a listener's question about the pros and cons of accepting a credit-limit increase. Plus, Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners talks stock investing in the Market Call.
Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, says that investors should expect lower long-term returns over the next decade, with buy-and-hold strategies struggling more than in the past, with the change largely caused by shortened cycles in various sectors of the market that force investors to be more selective and to tilt portfolios based more on the shifts driven by economic activity. Lloyd says while he believes value investing will carry the day, his primary focus is on quality at a reasonable price. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for BankRate.com discusses the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Plus, Matt Zajechowski discusses a Forbes Advisor study showing which subscriptions Americans will keep and cut as they react to inflation this year, and portfolio manager Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management looks at stocks with consistent earnings in the Money Life Market Call.
Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, says the outlook for the economy is 'very, very challenging for 2023,' but the economic numbers are strong enough to keep momentum rolling but slowing for much of the year. She says the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 'above 50 percent, and significantly so,' but the timing of when that happens depends mostly on the actions of the Federal Reserve, noting that if the Fed resumes larger rate hikes, it likely draws forward the recession and makes it happen sooner, while keeping hikes lower will push the downturn back into next year. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Sweetgreen -- which he put into the Danger Zone before it went through its initial public offering in 2021 -- onto his list of 'zombie stocks,' and Max Wasserman of Miramar Capital talks about income-producing stocks in the Market Call.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that most of the damage to the stock market caused by rising interest rates has been done, and that downside risk to valuations has been priced in, leaving the market in a situation where 'We don't need to have a lot of good news to end up with a good year.' McMillan expects the market to end the year on a positive note, although he expects the story to be high volatility throughout as investors digest interest rate and inflation news. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, checks in on business-development companies as they complete their earnings season and after a harrowing day on the market on Thursday. Emily Thornton discusses the 2023 Tax Procrastinators Report from IPX1031, showing that at least one in three Americans has reason to put off getting their taxes done this year. In the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser talks about Vanguard funds and ETFs.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research -- best known for his book on following the Fed to investment success -- says that investors are terrified that the Federal Reserve will overshoot on its strategy and throw the economy into a deep recession, but they have largely discounted the central bank's recent and current actions while they wait to see whether Chairman Jerome Powell decide just when a pivot can occur that drops interest rates and pushes inflation lower. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a 200-day moving-average play on a single-country fund covering a surprising market, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses a recent survey showing how many credit-card users are missing out on potential savings from balance-transfer offers and, in the Market Call, Chase Investment Counsel CEO Peter Tuz -- co-manager of the Chase Growth Fund -- talks about finding growth stocks at reasonable prices in a market that is struggling with today's headline risks.
James Choi, a professor of finance at Yale University, discusses his recent study on 'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' -- which examines the recommendations of personalities like Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey compared to the standards of economists - -and discusses how the standard advice of saving 10 percent (or as much as possible) of your income from the beginnings of your working life leads to more times of struggle and no less in assets come retirement compared to smoothing savings out more proportionately against income over a lifetime spent saving, earning and spending.
Also on the show, Jeremy Pagan, equity research analyst at Morningstar discusses his recent analysis on the pros and cons of investing in REITs versus putting money directly into real estate in a rising-rate environment and, in the Market Call, Chris Natividad, chief investment officer at Equbot -- which runs the AI Powered Equity ETF -- talks about using artificial intelligence as a means of picking stocks.
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments says that the market has rallied this year on the hopes of a pivot from the FederalReserve, but the strong economic results have pushed the prospect of a Fed change in policy have moved farther out. Now, he says, the market is looking at 'an inflection point for earnings,' and he notes that current conditions have historically lead to a recession, which he sees as coming next year though he acknowledges it may not be a deep, long recession. Senitra horbrook, credit cards editor at ThePointsGuy.com talks about how rewards and loyalty programs are facing inflation the same way as the rest of the economy, and how consumers should respond to those changes. Plus Stan Haitchcock -- best known as 'Stan the Annuity Man' -- talks about how savers should be looking at annuities in a rising rate, high-inflation environment.
Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market has never bottomed before the start of a recession, so if the current downturn doesn't rise to that level yet but you think it will, then the bottom has not been reached. The market, historically, peaks about six months before a recession, and it appears to be climbing to that peak and perhaps holding it longer than normal. It mean, he said, that there is likely a rally that ends in trouble later this year. Meanwhile, Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that the market has been in a trendless environment for months, failing to reach higher highs or lower lows to signal either an uptrend or downtrend; he sees continued opportunities in individual stocks even as the market moves sideways until it sorts things out. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses a stock that looks good until you read the footnotes of its quarterly earnings filing carefully, but also highlights a stock investors might want to buy after reading its quarterly notes, and tax expert Ed Slott of IRAHelp.com talks about how changes to the tax code and also changing stock market conditions are impacting the tax-planning moves investors might want to make now.
Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says investors have good reason to be defensive right now because while he sees strong potential for the market to make new highs in the next six months to the end of the year, only to then embark on a deep bear market. He says 'you have to approach this market by being bullish and bearish at the same time.' In The NAVigator segment, Jay Rhame, chief executive officer at Reaves Asset Management -- president of the Reaves Utility Income Fund says that the dividend-growth potential for utility companies makes them a viable investment option despite today's high interest-rate, high inflation conditions which typically are bad for the sector. Also on the show, Sam Huisache discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that 75 percent of Americans who move have regrets about the changes they've made, and Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that the stock market has come back around to a good time for investors to buy the dips, largely because the market's decline last year did 'so much of the heavy lifting' to put stocks in a better buying position. While Petrides expects continued earnings contraction, he says 'We're probably closer to the bottom than we were at this time last year.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi picks a precious metals fund for a 200-day moving average play on current conditions, Meagan Dow, senior strategist at Edward Jones discusses the firm's recent survey showing that Americans are prioritizing financial wellness but aren't making much much progress toward it., and Burns McKinney of NFJ Investment Group, talks about buying value stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
Zed Osmani, portfolio manager for the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, says the domestic and global economies could avoid a recession this year, although he sees a 65 to 70 percent chance of a sharp slowdown instead. Osmani says the key word for the year is 'pivot,' the centerpiece of a 'healthy bull-bear debate' about whether central banks will pivot in 2023 and how fast they will pivot; the result of that back-and-forth will be heightened volatility and a tough outcome to predict. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the recent news that America's cumulative credit card debt had reached an all-time high, Hailey Neff discusses a recent survey from Todayshomeowner.com showing that one in 20 American homes carries a million-dollar pricetag but asking whether one in 20 Americans can afford that much, and Kevin Kelly of Kelly ETFs talks about thematic investing in the Money Life Market Call.
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that the technical indicators that the market peaked several weeks, 'screaming overbought, screaming this is not the time to be buying if you are not going to be holding forever,' which has the market in a short-term downturn even as the long-term outlook is positive. He notes that in times like these with conflicting signals, investors can nibble and be selective buyers, but they want to stick to the best names with positive fundamentals that can be held in line with the longer-term positive forecast. Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X discusses thematic investing and which themes or specialties stand out under current market conditions and which to avoid. Maier says that capital expenditure from corporations remain strong and investors should ride with that idea, particularly at a time when it appears that consumers are ready to cut spending, fatigued by inflation. And in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund discusses his search for growth-company stocks that 'can change the world or are in the process of changing the world.'
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says in The Big Interview that the economic data showing that both the economy and inflation are running hotter than expected is going to force the Federal reserve to make some moves that are more likely to trigger not just a recession but a harder landing for the economy. Bostjancic says the Fed has plenty of reason to keep tightening and the markets are starting to price in a bigger rate hike for the March meeting; if February economic data shows continued economic heat, the central bank's response could be the catalyst for a more protracted downturn. But not all economists agree with Bostjancic -- or with each other for that matter -- as shown when Ken Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America discusses the latest Outlook survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today and showing that there is no strong consensus for how the current situation will play out. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts DoorDash in the Danger Zone, noting that it's a zombie stock already well down from 2021 peaks but likely to deliver a second helping of losses as it sinks to a very low fair value. And Stan Haithcock, 'Stan the Annuity Man' joins Chuck to answer a question about a listener's pending pension-versus-annuity decision.
Jim Welsh, portfolio manager at Smart Portfolios and editor of the MacroTides newsletter, says that the next downturn is being set up by recent moves that have bolstered confidence and lulled investors into feeling good. When the market turns, closer to mid-year, Welsh thinks the disappointment of those investors will make the market more vulnerable to 'a significant decline,' which he believes will take the Standard and Poor's 500 down to the 3,500 level, with a hard-landing economy putting 3,200 within the realm of possibilities. In The Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, foresees a 'growth recession,' likely to start in the second half of 2023 as consumers start to tighten up their spending. Rick says a recession, if it happens, will be mild. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Perry, vice president at XA Investments, discusses the benefits and risks associated with leverage in closed-end funds during a rising-rate environment, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how he set up -- and changed over time -- the allowance practices used with his daughters.
Legendary mutual fund manager Bill Nygren of the Oakmark Fund, says that any recession would be an unusual one because there has never been such a weak economic environment with such strong labor and other key conditions. That makes it that auto stocks, consumer lending companies and other businesses that typically suffer in a recession could actually perform well. Nygren emphasizes that despite changing conditions, buying high-quality, cash-generating businesses at reasonable prices continues to work, noting that 'there are a lot of stocks today at single-digit P/E multiples,' and that investors who stock up on those names will look back in five years happy that they purchased the companies despite current chaos. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a young, unique fund that could diversify any portfolio his 'ETF of the Week,' and Mike Winter of Leatherback Asset Management and the Leatherback Long/Short Alternative Yield ETF makes his debut in the Market Call talking a mix of buys and shorts.
Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and chief executive at Active Alts, says the market is 'very, very extended' and is poised for a 20 percent correction that he expects to hit in the second quarter, driving the Standard and Poor's 500 below 3,500 before any real recovery can begin. Lamensdorf says the decline he expects will not be the result of a recession, because he believes the economy may be able to sidestep that kind of growth slowdown but stocks can't, owing to a fair value estimate that he pegs at 3,000 on the index. George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, looks at the same uncertainties and says they have moved gold to 'right where it should be,' positioned for a good year as the market sorts out everything from inflation and interest rates to geopolitical concerns in China and the war in Ukraine. Plus, Laura Adams discusses a Finder survey showing that more than half of American parents aren't paying their kids an allowance, and how the money adults save now will likely cost the children later due to missed educational opportunities.
Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley says 'Investors may be relying too much on recent trends to extrapolate corporate earnings resilience' at a time when corporate earnings are not impressive compared to years past. Meanwhile, slowing economic growth means 'There's still a lot of room for downside in company earnings estimates if we just revert to the mean, forget about hard landing or soft landing." While Shalett thinks a recession is coming, nearly 70 percent of Americans believe it's already here, according to a recent survey; research analyst Jaime Dunaway-Seale of Clever Real Estate discusses the disconnect between economic numbers and consumer expectations. And in the Market Call, portfolio manager Eric McNew of Summit Global Investments discusses managing risk in current market conditions.
Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, says that while the economic picture remains muddled, there has been an earnings recession -- successive quarters of decline -- and there is now potential for recovery. He says in The Big Interview that the Federal Reserve will not be able to put off a recession indefinitely, but that how investors feel about that economic slowdown can depend mostly on what level the decline starts from and gets to, and the Fed can mitigate a lot of the pain if it manages interest rates properly. feel different based on how far activity falls. Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the technical indicators are all flashing go signs and 2023 is setting up strong with the market continuing to make higher lows and higher highs, with more and more securities participating in that rising trend. Fox says that if the market can stay above 4,300 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it will soon be testing levels as high as 4,500. In The NAVigator segment, Will Rhind of GraniteShares says that the peak in inflation has created a more favorable outlook for business-development companies and closed-end funds. Plus, Frank Bonanno, managing director at StoneCastle Cash Management talks about how higher interest rates have made cash a viable, investable asset class again and how the ultra wealthy might better manage and protect cash in insured bank accounts.
Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that a recent study done by his firm shows that many recent drivers of short-term market swings won't matter over time, because 'long-term returns after years like we had last year in 2022 are attractive but volatile,' which is precisely what he expects for the remainder of this year. Moreover, Ferrara notes that history indicates that -- if history holds true -- the market is likely to show a good five-year stretch after the troubled year, although that period will be rocky and is likely to include one down year too. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, goes back to the Vanguard Group for the second week in a row -- a rare move for him with any fund family -- to find his ETF of the Week, and Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, says in the Market Call that he believes the market and economy have reached 'a generational pivot point' caused by the current form of capitalism 'not working for enough people,' and discusses stocks that can thrive through a rocky transitional period.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance, says that the market has reached a time when the better things are in the present, the gloomier they set up for the future. He says that rather than a soft or hard landing for the economy, we could be facing 'no landing,' which further pushes back difficult times because 'the recession has not been canceled, it has just been delayed. I would argue that we are delaying the inevitable and ultimately the longer we delay it the worse it is going to be.' In the Market Call, James Abate, chief investment officer for Centre Asset Management and portfolio manager for the Centre Funds talks infrastructure investing. Plus, the latest installment of the Weird Financial News, featuring the 6-year-old who placed massive food orders from GrubHub when he was supposed to be playing on his father's phone.
John Mousseau, chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors says that he sees the potential for the Federal Reserve to steer the economy clear of a recession, and while he expects volatility and notes that investors are right to be nervous about high inflation and the inverted yield curve, they should not be scared away from fixed income now. Mousseau notes that with inflation starting to ease up while rates have been rising, investors are being paid well for taking on short- and intermediate bonds. In The Book Interview, Scarlett Cochran -- author of 'It’s Not About the Money: A Proven Path to Building Wealth and Living the Rich Life You Deserve,' discusses finding the right balance of savings and investing with spending and enjoying life, and she and Chuck discuss how one area where she diverges from most experts is in suggesting that debt be a tool to help consumers embrace and use smartly rather than avoid out of fear. Also on the show, Rona Guymon of Nationwide Annuity discusses the firm's eighth annual Advisor Authority survey, which shows that many investors plan to keep working in retirement, and may move in retirement to where it is cheapest to live, even if that means moving away from family. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to size up a financial adviser whose recommendations are more aggressive than she believes is right for someone her age.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that macroeconomic signals show that a slowdown and recession are coming in the second half of the year, and while investors should be happy with current conditions and technicals supporting a current rally, she believes that signs like a sharply inverted yield curve, declines in new orders portend a major downtrend in growth. As a result, investors are facing a challenge in managing risk now, and she suggests leaning more into fixed income now with a hard landing ahead, while also resisting the temptation to pull away from the market when they see it moving toward a bottom soon. Roland did acknowledge that later this year there may come a time when investors are much less happy with the economic backdrop but quite pleased with the stock market conditions. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs delivers a Valentine's Day bouquet by talking about a stock he likes now, noting that it's in the same industry as one of the companies he dislikes the most, allowing him to compare the two. Plus, in the Market Call, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management discusses his 'GPS Method' for choosing exchange-traded funds.
Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the current rally is not a sign of a new bull market, but rather proof that the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes haven't really had much impact on the economy yet. She expects labor market softness to increase, layoffs to start and unemployment to rise, with the Fed not pulling back on interest rates until 2024, and while investors are waiting for that pivot they are likely to feel the effects of a hard landing for the economy. Smith's short and intermediate take -- dramatically different than other experts in the Big Interview this week --- said that while she can't say the forecast for the next year is particularly positive, she believes the returns for the next five years will be in line with historic norms. Jeff Bishop, chief executive at RagingBull.com, says that the technical indicators are all looking good, but he's wary of the fundamentals and while that caution has him leaning to the bearish side, the market's current trend is bullish enough that investors should be buying the dips now. In The NAVigator segment, Michael Beth, director of trading at WallachBeth Capital, discusses the challenges posed by liquidity issues that can cost closed-end fund investors real money when it comes to making trades efficiently. PLUS, Chuck talks about a sure-thing financial bet that's based on something investors will be watching at this weekend's Super Bowl.
Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that equities bottom when inflation peaks, and that process -- typically coupled with the Federal Reserve becoming less hawkish -- is well underway. Papic says the Fed's downshift in the size of rate hikes at a time when inflation remains elevated is a sign that the central bank has already shifted its policy focus, and will lead to consumers having more money in their pocket and setting up 'a pretty bullish environment.' Papic expects the market and economy to be strong through 2023, but does seem some storm clouds on the horizon for late 2024, fertilized by some Fed action in trying to ultimately hit target inflation numbers. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to small-cap stocks -- which financial advisers have been looking at as one of the more promising areas of the market for this year -- and makes a growth fund his ETF of the Week, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Forbes Advisor showing that nearly 80 percent of the members of the millennial and Gen Z generations have gotten financial advice from social media, and Chuck answers a listener's question about dealing with collectibles from long-ago childhoods.
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says there is a higher probability of a soft landing today than anyone foresaw at the end of 2022, and that the stock market's strong January proved that investors are buying into the narrative. That said, Garretty says that what people expect a soft landing to be is 'fuzzy.' She expects a time of slowdown and belt tightening, with a little bit of pain and discomfort. Also on the show is Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which shows that the strong start to the year has investors feeling better than they have in months, although the improving feelings are tempered by an increase in consumers' financial stress levels. Also, Financial adviser and author Anthony Saccaro, discusses his new book, 'More Life Than Money: How Not to Outlive Your Savings,' and Chuck answers a listener's question about using an old credit card that is no longer needed for day-to-day financial needs but which has a great fixed rate.
Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says we may be 'close to the finish line with respect to how much [earnings estimates] needed to come down,' noting that earnings estimates have already come down about as far as they are likely to. Still, that doesn't give Mian reason to expect a strong rebound; he says corporate performance will lag the earnings cycle, which will lead to a sideways market with the real rebound to come in 2024. In the Talking Technicals segment, Jason Brown of The Brown Report says that he believes the market has stopped falling but has moved into a sideways channel, which could last for a while but which will help to build a base for a new bull market rally. Also on the show, Vince Shorb of the National Financial Educators Council discusses a survey showing that Americans believe they are losing a big chunk of money every year to their own financial illiteracy. In The Market Call, Mark Salzinger, chief investment officer at Salzinger Sheaff Brock, talks about traditional funds and ETFs.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that 'everything is lining up pretty well that the Fed can shepherd the economy to the other side,' and that the markets are starting to agree with that conclusion, expecting a soft landing -- anemic growth but avoiding a deep decline -- and price improvement from here. Mullarkey also notes that he sees 2023 as 'the year of the yield,' which he described as 'a great opportunity to go to the fixed income buffet table and pick from it right now,' noting that he particularly likes U.S. corporate bonds. In The Book Interview, author Drago Dimitrov, discusses what he thinks investors should really know about the underlying operations of the stocks they purchase, as covered by his book 'What Does This Company Do? Understanding a Business and its Risks' David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes that conversation a step further as he discusses a real-estate company that's a 'zombie stock,' but also part of a troubling wave within an industry. Plus, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub covers the site's recent survey showing that -- no matter what the official numbers are saying about prices -- a majority of Americans believe inflation is going to keep getting worse this year.
Lawrence McMillan of OptionStrategist.com, president of McMillan Analysis, says that the technical indicators have all lined up so where there are no sell signals and the market could easily move up to recapture its August highs, though he acknowledges that the big concern is not something in the charts but rather is the Federal Reserve, 'which is not exactly bending over backwards to help the markets.' McMillan notes that he would like to see a confirming signal from a cumulative volume indicator to be convinced that it's a full-fledged bull market, but he intends to ride the trends while determining if the market is building long-term confidence. In The Big Interview, Tadas Viskanta, editor at Abnormal Returns, discusses how the changing landscape of financial blogs and media has left investors swimming in a sea of data that can be hard to cut through without succumbing to confirmation bias and other bad behavioural concerns. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, is back for The NAVigator, looking at how the market's hot start to the new year has changed the outlook for various closed-end fund sectors and the moves investors might want to consider now and, in the Market Call, Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses the X-Out method for investing in large-cap stocks.
Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says that while the market and economic fundamentals look pretty bad, those problems have been so obvious for so long that the market has adjusted to where it is now letting slight improvements in the data lead it higher. As a result, even if the numbers show just slight improvement, the market can react positively, which should make it that both the economy and market look much better late in 2023. Amoroso is concerned that the technicals overreacted to a good January, which could lead to short-term volatility or downturn, although she generally finds technicals showing a longer-term positive trend. In the ETF of the Week segment, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, revisits his pick from last week -- the classic Standard and Poor's 500 fund that started the exchange-traded fund business -- with a twist, making an equal-weight index fund his selection. And in the Market Call, Lauren Hill, portfolio manager and research analyst at Westwood Investment Management discusses large-cap and consumer-discretionary stocks.
Contrarian-minded commodities expert Adam Rozencwajg, co-manager of the Goehring and Rozencwajg Resources fund says the energy market 'has a really unique setup' where prices have risen but money and investment has not flowed to the business, which is likely to extend the positive edge and duration of the current energy cycle. Rozencwajg says tight energy supplies will continue, having bullish implications for the whole sector until investors start pushing money into the sector. Also on the show, Jenna Lemair of Insuranks.com discusses the petflation and the site's survey on how animals and pet owners have not been immune from rising prices for food and medical care, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting in the new year, and Sandy Villere, co-manager of the Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Nigam Arora, editor of The Arora Report says that there's a disconnect between the messages being sent by market and economic fundamentals and technicals, with the technical indicators turning bullish despite longer-term economic data sending bearish signs. As a result, Arora says investors should expect significant volatility and should put more money into the short-term technicals to take advantage of the back-and-forth even as they become more conservative in their long-term investments. Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge.com, echoed Arora's take on improving technicals, noting that until something changes in those indicators, 'We rally to resistance.' Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's research into the record percentage of Americans who say they can't afford to pay a $1,000 emergency bill without going into debt. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer at the Jacob Funds talks about early-stage, high-growth investing in technology and small-cap stocks.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market is likely to close the month having achieved the 'January trifecta,' which is a Santa Claus rally (over the last five trading days of the old year and first two of the new), plus a positive January barometer -- where January's results set a trend for the year -- and then the 'first five days early warning system,' which holds that if the first five trading days of the year are up the full year's results have been positive more than 80 percent of the time. With two of those three indicators set and the third likely to be confirmed when the month ends tomorrow, Hirsch notes that his firm has upped its 2023 outlook to a 'best case scenario' for above-average pre-election year gains of 15 to 20 percent. If there's a surprise, Hirsch says, it is that the projection would be too low. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2022 'Planning and Progress Study,' which shows that Generation Z has big hopes for retiring younger than its older cohorts, a notion that will be tough to pull off; David Trainer of New Constructs puts Opendoor in the Danger Zone, noting that its a zombie stock that could run out of money before the end of the summer, and author Mark Miller chats about his latest book, Retirement Reboot, and how savings strapped pre-retirees can regain control of their financial future.
Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says that while the headlines and fundamentals are making investors nervous, there has been a shift to the positive in technical market measures, which he believes are starting to show signs of a market bottom and turn that has him bullish on the potential for a good year. Samuelson lays out a number of different technical reasons for optimism and says they turned quickly in the fall and early winter noting, for example, that 81 percent of global indices are now above their 200-day, long-term trend -- versus only 10 percent in October -- which shows that this 'has a lot of the underpinnings of the cusp of a new bull market.' In The Big Interview, Scott Lynn, founder and chief executive at Masterworks -- which created a marketplace for shares in works of art -- discusses the fine-art market, how it weathered the storm of the market's downturn in 2022 and why investors might turn to it for diversification now. Plus, Eric Purington of the abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund says in The NAVigator segment that private infrastructure investments -- and particularly middle-market opportunities, which have been being snapped up by larger operators -- offer a path to stability, diversification and enhanced returns now. And in the Market Call, hedge-fund manager Mina Tadrus, chief executive at Tadrus Capital discusses quantitative, risk-measured investing in exchange-traded funds.
Phillip Wool, head of research for Rayliant Global Advisors, says that investors who expect the U.S. economy to weaken or to suffer the effects of inflation for longer will find that emerging markets are more compelling than domestic markets in 2023, and he finds China particularly interesting as it pivots to a growth stance coming out of a Covid lockdown and reversing insular policies of the last few years. In a wide ranging Big Interview segment, Wool talks about how he is worried that private investments -- both equity and credit -- are headed for liquidity problems that could hamstring investors who are not expecting the whipsaw that comes when hard-to-value securities must be sold into a down market to meet redemption demand. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi celebrates 'the granddaddy' of exchange-traded funds with his ETF of the Week, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's annual survey of checking-account fees, and Jim Cullen, chief executive officer at Schaefer Cullen Capital Management -- appearing in the Market Call for the first time -- talks small cap stocks and long-term value investing.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that he expects a modest slowdown and mild recession that is short-lived and shallow, and that the economy will show resilience in rebounding from that, but he notes that the following recovery will be equally mild and modest. Also on the show, Emily Brandon talks about a U.S. News and World Report survey showing that consumers are cutting back on retirement savings in the face of inflation and day-to-day cost-of-living increases, Megan Moncrief of travel insurance portal Squaremouth discusses how travellers can protect themselves against potential pilot strikes and events like the recent Southwest Airlines breakdown, and David Wagner, portfolio manager for Aptus Capital Advisors and the Aptus actively managed exchange-traded funds covers stocks in the Market Call.
Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says the economy is going through a series of rotating, mini-recessions affecting certain industries, which will lead to a modest recession in the middle of the year, but once but that happens he expects interest rates to start falling, inflation to keep slowing and the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle, he expects price/earnings multiples to expand which should help markets go higher. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, is equally optimistic in the Talking Technicals segment, saying he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 Index to end the year up more than 15 percent near 4,500, with technical indicators suggesting to him that the worst is over and that the market bottomed out in October of 2022. In The Market Call, Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, discusses altering ETF portfolios to reflect coming changes in inflation, interest rates and more.
Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire, says he is tilting portfolios away from value and toward growth because investors have been willing to pay up for growth at times when there is no growth. As a result, with an economic slowdown being almost certain, Pursche is repositioning to take advantage of where the money is likely to go; he also sees opportunity in fixed-income and in the alternative income space, noting that yields have come up enough to be worth considering. Pursche notes in the Market Call, that despite the anticipated domestic slowdown, he is not turning to international investing right now. Also on the show, numismatics expert Bret Leifer talks about the market for collectible coins and whether it's performed in line with precious metals as inflation has returned in ways not seen in decades, Matt Brannon discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that retirees saw their life savings decline by 10 percent in 2022 due to a mix of market losses and increased spending costs caused by inflation and, in The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs singles out a popular mutual fund that carries a five-star rating from Morningstar which he says actually has 57 percent of its assets in stocks that are unattractive or downright ugly.
David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- the president, Sierra Alpha Research -- says that until the stock market can get above its long-term trend line and show fundamental strength, investors may want to question how good things are really getting. Keller notes that there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but 'the proof is in the price,' and he will stay skeptical until the major benchmarks follow through on major barometers. Keller notes that the 3,800 level on the Standard and Poor's 500 is a key level to watch, as if the index drops below that level -- the low from December -- it could unleash some negative probabilities that investors may want to plan for. In The Big Interview, Paul Espinosa, lead manager of the top-rated Seafarer Overseas Value Fund, discusses why international markets and especially emerging markets are priced right for a rally, even as they digest issues ranging from war to inflation and more. The NAVigator segment features Nate Jones of closed-end fund powerhouse Nuveen talking about how the upward-sloping yield curve for municipal bonds is creating opportunities in the sector, and Randy Baron, lead portfolio manager for international and global investing at Pinnacle Associates, talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he believes what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been saying about keeping the Fed funds rate elevated for longer, and if the central bank indeed pursues that strategy, the probability of a recession is high towards the end of the year or early in 2024. Mullaney says that for the first time in six years he is looking at increasing bond exposure to help get through what he expects to be a rough year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, looks at trends on the rise in emerging markets for his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses some alarming trends in consumer credit, and Rob Lutts, president/chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management goes looking for good ideas among stocks in the Market Call.
Axel Merk who is president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that while there are signs that the economy is improving, we're 'not out of the woods yet,' and the Federal Reserve 'can't declare victory.' Still, he thinks the central bank will get into wait-and-see mode after two more interest-rate hikes, noting that there may not be a trend reversal this year but that just stopping the hikes should be seen by investors as a good sign. Also on the show, Julie Ramhold, consumer analyst at DealNews.com, tells Chuck -- and you -- how to get a better bargain, or at least a better fit, if you are shopping for gym memberships now that the busy holiday period has ended and, in the Market Call, Mike Cerasoli, portfolio manager for the TrueShares Eagle Global Renewable Energy Income ETF gives his take on the energy market now.
Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy and Income Advisor newsletter, says in today's Money Life Market Call that even after the good year that energy stocks had in 2022, the sector has just started its first steps into a 'multi-year super cycle' driven by supply shortages caused by a lack of investment capital put into the sector over the last eight to 10 years. Gue says he expects 'significant outperformance from energy stocks versus the broader market,' continuing the results from 2022 for years to come. In The Big Interview, Giorgio Caputo, senior fund manager and head of multi-asset strategies at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, is worried about how central banks and markets will respond to rising commodity prices, which could lead to the return of six-dollar gas prices later this year; Caputo says that he is mindful of the risks facing long-duration assets if there is indeed another bout of inflation. That condition also would be a headwind for growth stocks, technology companies, utilities, bond-like equities and more. Also on the show, Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, discusses a recent survey of corporate chief executives whose biggest worry for the year ahead is recession.
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that the key disagreement in the market right now -- the one that it struggles to price in -- is when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start cutting rates. Until there is some clarity there, the market will continue to struggle, and investors should be eyeing earnings season to see what it says for the strength of the economy and what it signals about a potential recession. Jeffrey Bierman, founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that he expects the next set of economic data to sound a downbeat note that will turn the market from a soft rally toward six months of trouble that will end in the fourth quarter with a rally. And Axel Merk, chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that the market is pricing in a recession already, but that assumes the Fed will get its moves right; he says there could be significant volatility if the central bank struggles to achieve its goals, and notes that gold is being embraced now because it tends to lead into recessionary times. Plus, in the Market Call, David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in a low-growth environment.
Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam Investments, expects a recession that impacts corporate earnings more than it does Main Street, though the downturn he foresees is not immediate. Vaillancourt expects the market to be messy, even though he does not think the market will make new lows much beyond the worst of 2022, but he thinks the market will suffer due to the pressure on corporate earnings. Vaillancourt likes international markets right now, notes that there is a wide dispersion of earnings but the conditions in Europe are relatively cheap compared to the United States. The ETF of the Week features Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi discussing the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income fund, which Chuck bought after it was discussed in the segment a few years ago, but which he sold recently during tax-loss harvesting season. And in the Market Call, Jason Browne, president at Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF says that international funds are looking good to him for the first time in decades, but notes that he also sees opportunities in domestic markets as they bounce back from 2022's down year.
Veteran money manager Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments has been making 10 forecasts for every new year since the 1990s and he unveiled his 10 predictions for 2023 today, calling for a shallow recession that is followed by an equally shallow recovery before year's end. Doll says inflation will fall by a good amount but not get near the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2 percent, which leaves the market caught in the middle hoping that the central bank will change its policies to appease the market. He doesn't think the Fed will back off, especially when it comes to moving interest rates up to 5.5 percent, where he thinks they will remain into 2024. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the mixed bag of results from the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn talks about investing in stocks while reacting to the news in the Money Life Market Call.
Patrick Luce, economist at ITR Economics says that the slowing cycle the economy will be going through this year will result in a hard landing late this year and into 2024. Luce still sees the consumer being in good shape to help power the economy along, which is why he expects the recession to be mild and reminiscent of the mid-1990s. Still after a recovery that will run most of the second half of this decade, Luce says the market is headed for real trouble -- another Great Depression -- in the 2030s. Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com offers some short and intermediate optimism, noting that the first week of the year tends to portend the action for the entire year and 2023 got off to an optimistic start. Zanger sees the best current opportunities in international stocks, particularly some big-name companies in China. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about taking an annuity or a lump-sum as they leave behind an employer who offered them a pension settlement, and Abby Davisson, co-author of 'Money and Love: An Intelligent Roadmap for Life’s Biggest Decisions' joins Chuck for The Book Interview.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, says the end of the overheating economy is drawing near, which is why the economy will continue softening early this year, setting up a rebound once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates which he expects to happen in the fall. Adams expects the Federal Reserve to have two more rate increases over the next two months, driving down economic activity as a result, ultimately delivering the drop in inflation that the Fed is aiming for. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, discusses investors sentiment and which investment strategies held up best for individuals during the downturn of 2022, Silvia Tavares, president at VantageScore talks about the average American's credit score and how it is trending now that inflation and interest rates are running at their hottest levels in decades and, in the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer of New Constructs explains why pet-supply retailer Chewy is a barking dog of a stock right now.
Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes the stock market could drop by as much as 25 percent this year before rebounding late, saying that stocks could end the year down 10 percent, although with positive surprises they could find a way to finish the year in the black, maybe even by double-digits. That surprise would depend on how quickly the market processes the turn in the economy, which he sees as transitioning toward better times with the worst of the high inflation/rate-hiking cycle now in the past. Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager for Angel Oak Capital, also talks about the economy, noting that it's late in the cycle for rate hikes, but still early in the cycle for profit expansion amongst banks and financial-services companies, which historically benefit from high-rate markets. Also on the show, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the ATAC Funds talks about how 2022 was an 'outlier' year statistically, and what that means for investors looking for guidance from technicals on when to favor stocks or bonds moving forward.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrte.com, says he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a full percentage point but to then hold the line for the rest of the year once that hike is in place. McBride was careful to note that he does not expect the Fed to backtrack and start cutting rates at all this year, even as it sees inflation start to ease. That environment -- higher rates but declining inflation -- will create opportunities for savers using high-yield banking instruments. Also on the show, legendary money manager Ralph wanger -- a small-cap ace who ran the Acorn Fund for more than 30 years -- notes that 'Bear markets exist to destroy the stupidities of the previous bull market' and talks about how the current market is in the process of unwinding those excesses. Plus, Tom Lydon of VettaFi goes international with a trending pick as his ETF of the Week, and portfolio manager Andrery Kutuzov of Seven Canyons Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he expects 2023 to be when inflation and interest rates start coming down, which will not be comfortable to digest but he says he expects the stock market to get through it and finish the year higher, overcoming a brief mid-year recession -- and possibly giving up some late 2022 gains as a volatile market bottoms out -- to register a 'better than sub-par year.' Also on the show, Joe Wiggins, author of 'The Intelligent Fund Investor: Practical Steps for Better Results in Active and Passive Funds' and, in the Market Call, Noland Langford of Left Brain Wealth Management talks about where he is finding growth and how corporate bonds have a chance to replace fast-growing companies as a safer, more reasonable way to navigate current market conditions, at least until the market can navigate the current rate and inflation environment.
Rob Arnott, chairman and chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, says that the Federal Reserve has made 'a series of mistakes' that he expects to continue with a pivot away from rate hikes that occurs too late to stop a recession. Still, Arnott believes that slowdown is already priced into the market, meaning that the worst of the bear market -- except for any last capitulation meltdown -- is behind us. Still, Arnott is not ready to invest much in domestic equities now, noting that he'd favor international and emerging markets stocks because they're better values and those markets seem to have already passed the 'peak fear' point that makes them more attractive than a U.S. market that's not quite there yet. Arnott also notes that value stocks are 'in their cheapest quintile in history,' making them a place for investors to turn once the market reaches the full-on buying stage again later this year. Also on the show, in the Market Call, Mark Travis, manager of the Intrepid Capital Funds, discusses the benefits of investing in companies that make beer, shoes and underwear.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments says that 2022 was harder than anyone anticipated for investors and markets, in large measure because the stock and bond markets came into the year 'ridiculously expensive.' The market's decline has brought valuations down, but Doll considers both stocks and bonds to be 'in no-man's land' now, better than they were a year ago but not yet attractive. Doll reviews his 10 forecasts made for 2022 and how the year turned out; he'll return to the show in early January with his predictions for the year ahead. Meanwhile, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors makes his forecasts for the closed-end fund business in 2023 today, and his top sector bets for the new year are some of 2022's weakest areas, most notably real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real assets. He also expects international bonds and more to be in the sweet spot, and suggested that investors tilt equity portfolios toward value, dividend and international funds. Plus, Chuck puts a bow on the year with a commentary on the day his daughter is getting married.
John Bonnanzio, editor at Fidelity Monitor and Insight, says that the economy keeps chugging along, and that the data suggests that the economy can avoid recession and the Federal Reserve can deliver a soft landing. Speaking in the Market Call segment, Bonnanzio says he is making gradual shifts to portfolios, moving away gradually from large-cap stocks and technology companies and moving towards value stocks including the ones that are economically sensitive that he thinks could be poised to rebound if his recession/soft landing call comes to fruition. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi makes the iShares MSCI Turkey fund his pick for ETF of the week, noting that its the best-performing non-leveraged ETF out there for 2022, but that's no reason to think you want to jump in now, after the big gain and with so many other emerging markets and other parts of the world also presenting good values now. Plus, Chuck talks about some financial chores you can resolve, plan for or make your goals as you look ahead into the New Year.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group foresees 'the best buying opportunity in the global stock market for at least a decade' to come into view after the market goes through a recession and some pain in the first half of 2023. He believes that valuations will reflect the economic ills first, saying investors should be prepared for 'significant further losses' of as much as 25 percent before the market reaches the purchasing point. Talking technical analysis, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders certainly agrees with the assessment that trouble is coming, but he believes the downturn will take root and that any recovery -- at least anything occurring in the new year -- is likely to be lackluster. Plus, Chuck interviews Rob Wells, author of 'The Insider: How the Kiplinger Newsletter Bridged Washington and Wall Street.'
Patrick O’Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, dislikes the cliche of a 'stockpicker's market' but he says the proverbial shoe fits for the year ahead, because while the overall tenor of the market has been muted and the economy has been bordering on recession, there are industry-leading stocks with solid balance sheets and profits and nice dividends that investors can build a portfolio around. O'Hare says the first half of the year will be challenging until inflation is under better control, and that the entirety of 2023 could be a struggle if the Federal Reserve and the markets don't get on the same page fairly soon; as a result, investors will want to look at income-production and safe havens in stocks and bonds to ride it out to better times. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discusses the uncertainties, worries and concerns that a majority of consumers have entering the new year, noting that this may be the worst year he's ever seen in terms of how shaky consumers and investors are at the turn of the calendar, plus Brian Shephardson, portfolio manager of the James Advantage Funds, talks value-oriented investing in the Market Call.
Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Portfolio Solutions, says that persistent inflation -- for longer than most observers are expecting -- is going to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish for longer, which investors will have to adjust to by diversifying away from the mega-cap stocks that have been a particular drag on portfolios this year. He suggests that investors look to small-cap stocks, non-US issues plus real assets and value investments to smooth out the ride in the year ahead. In The NAVigator segment, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance looks back at 2022 for the closed-end fund industry and reviews his forecasts, most notably how his basket of five funds for the year came out ahead of the market and poised to rebound in the new year. Plus, University of Toronto professor Opher Baron discusses how retailers are changing return policies in response to consumer habits and global supply-chain issues -- saying that consumers must pay more attention than ever to how stores handle returns -- and forensic accountant Tracey Coenen -- author of "The Marriage Money Guide (for Women)" -- discusses financial fidelity and how couples can keep their finances on the level so that money doesn't make them lose their minds.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management says that investors can expect a recession and market troubles during the first half of the New Year, but a recovery to start later on, noting that he expects the stock market to bottom out while the economy gets to where interest rates and inflation start becoming more reasonable. Cronk says that investors looking to be back in the market next year should be dipping into sectors where demand is consistent regardless of the economy, meaning health care, life sciences, defense companies and energy stocks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi -- the founder of ETF Trends -- reverts to his roots and makes a trend-following fund his pick as the ETF of the Week and, in the Market Call, Scot Bennett of Invest With Rules talks about how the rules apply and how well they have been working in today's difficult market conditions.
Roger Alliaga-Diaz, Americas chief economist and head of global portfolio construction at The Vanguard Group, says that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be reluctant to stop interest-rate hikes in 2023, and while they will get inflation under control it will be a slow process to get it down to the 2 percent level they are hoping for until at least 2024 and possibly 2025. As a result, any economic recovery is likely to be lackluster, featuring more choppiness and sideways movements than significant, fast rebounds. Alliaga-Diaz says the stock market looks better now than a year ago -- when it was trading at up to 40 percent over fair value -- but that it is positioned to deliver between 6 and 10 percent annualized over the next decade, which means returns going forward will struggle to reach historic norms. In the Market Call, Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says he expects a 'supply chain super cycle' to help sustain or even spur economic growth as consumer spending slows in the face of inflation, which should support the economy as it goes through a transition, but he notes that those conditions should make stock investors particularly picky about what they are buying now. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting.
Dana Telsey, chief executive/chief research officer at Telsey Advisory Group -- a leading analyst of the retail industry -- says she is cautious about the status of consumers and how they will respond to continuing inflation, noting that spending has moderated a bit. Telsey thinks retailers will see less spending and success than the last two years, but she thinks that retailers who can get through these times without much leftover inventory will be healthy enough to weather the storm that's coming early in 2023; she expects that to spur a few last-minute deals that consumers can take advantage of this week. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on how to beat back sequence-of-return risk, Fidelity's Meredith Stoddard discusses the firm's 14th annual survey on financial New Year's resolutions, and Stephen Dodson, manager of The Bretton Fund, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab and Co. says that investors should be hoping that the medicine necessary to help a weaker economy reduce the inflationary fever would be best taken sooner than later, leading to 'a much more meaningful deterioration of the economy ... that sets up a Fed pause.' With that in mind, Sonders expects more short-term market pain, setting up a recovery and better opportunities beyond that. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Digital Realty Trust back into the Danger Zone this week, noting that while the stock is already down significantly, it could drop another 75 percent before he thinks the market price will reflect the company's true value. Plus, Vivian Tsai, chairman of the College Savings Foundation discusses programs for gifting future college tuition monies for the holidays, and Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, makes his debut in the Market Call talking investments in exchange-traded funds.
Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that with the market being driven by inflation, there is a very slim chance that the Federal Reserve 'sticks the landing, gets it just right and we're off to the races again,' but an equally small worry about the central bank taking rates too high and making a giant mistake that craters the market. He believes the Federal Reserve likely lands somewhere in the middle, triggering a small, shallow recession. Ritholtz says investors need to stay focused on their goals and not get too excited by market moves in 2023, noting 'You have to be short-term greedy, not long-term greedy.' Also on the show, Stacey Morris, head of energy research at VettaFi, talks midstream energy infrastructure investing in The NAVigator segment and, in the Market Call, Eric Schoenstein, chief investment officer at Jensen Investment Management discusses focusing on quality amid volatile, choppy markets.
Mike Liss, portfolio manager for the American Century Value fund -- who uses a relative-value approach and is always trying to find the stocks that are "most undervalued" -- says that there has been a shift in what represents a great risk-reward since the beginning of 2022. While energy stocks remain a reasonable value, Liss says that health care, industrial and real estate investment trusts are areas that have become particularly attractive entering the new year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a small, young fund that focuses on offsetting carbon emissions as his ETF of the Week, Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses holiday financial stress and how inflation and rising interest rates are contributing to consumers' agitation this year, and Chuck talks about Wednesday's news that the Securities and Exchange Commission is advancing its first big changes to trading rules in nearly two decades.
Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research says that investors in 2023 will find out "the difference between an all-weather radial tire and a 30-percent total return," with one being "a Goodyear and the other a great year." Dad jokes aside, his look ahead for the New Year includes the idea that 2023 will not be a repeat of 2022, and while there will still be significant volatility, he otherwise thinks that the market's leadership will turn over, with lagging sectors coming to the fore and the few hot places of the market receding. Moreover, he expects solid returns from the stock and bond market, though he thinks it may take until the second half of the year for those gains to materialize. Also on the show, Ed Carson of Investor's Business Daily discusses the rebound in investor optimism -- it was a big move, though the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index remains in pessimistic territory -- and Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates talks growths tocks in the Market Call.
Harry Dent, the founder of Dent Research, says that the stock market's troubles in 2022 were just a precursor to real trouble, with the next wave in a downward cycle coming early next year, right after the market wakes up to the fact that there is neither a Santa Claus rally or a January effect to get the new year started on good footing. Dent has been calling for a market decline of 85 percent or more in stocks -- moving from their peak to their trough -- and sees the massive decline being the next step, but he notes that the one silver lining is that bond funds are set up to not only be a safe haven but for significant gains. Also, he notes that once the market completes the crash cycle, he expects the next long bull market to begin. Dent's opinions tend to be outliers, and that is proven on this show as D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, says he actually expects a Santa Claus rally this year, and he believes that technical indicators are showing that a market bottom may already be in place. He expects the new year will be more of the old one, volatile, choppy and with a lot of downward pressure just as we've seen in 2022. Plus, the Book Interview features Howard Yaruss, author of 'Understandable Economics: Because Understanding Our Economy Is Easier Than You Think and More Important Than You Know.'
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, says that a soft landing for the economy is achievable, so long as inflation comes down without dramatically increasing the unemployment rate. He says it's 'so far, so good,' in terms of current conditions, though he notes it is still early. Nick expects a mild recession in 2023, but says 'Investors can get some pretty good deals with some of the yields that are available across the spectrum in fixed income, and that includes the equity markets too,' noting that dividend payers and growers are well positioned for the New Year. Dave Breazzano of Polen Capital Credit talks about the state of the corporate credit and high-yield markets, noting that the market's expectation that high interest rates will create more bankruptcies has priced paper attractively for investors who don't expect a spike in defaults. Also on the show, investment analyst Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts Five9 in 'The Danger Zone' as the latest 'zombie stock' with a destiny of running out of cash before it can run up any profits, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about deciding the best time to take Social Security.
Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles, says that while interest rates and inflation are rising, the rate of those increases is slowing, and that part of the classic cycle doesn't ever get resolved quickly. is part of the classic cycle that has historically taken time to work out. The 89-year-old bond investing legend says the Federal Reserve has a tough job on its hands and places the central bank's odds of being successful in executing a soft landing are about 10 percent, though he thinks there's a better chance that it can push through the cycle without a downturn turning into a crash. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on how many stocks, funds and ETFs is too many for one investor to won, and portfolio manager Steve O'Neill of RiverNorth discusses why 'Tis the season for investors to go bargain hunting and discount shopping for closed-end funds.
Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund, says that the fixed-income market is waiting for proof that the Federal Reserve's moves are starting to beat back inflation, but that stability in interest rates -- likely to be in place until the Fed starts cutting rates late in 2023 or into 2024 -- will drive good performance in fixed income over the next six to 12 months. Rosenkranz says that will help investors who are about to live through a recession which he says will be 'harder rather than softer in nature.' On the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi discusses a China fund that is on the upswing but not quite yet trending, which he says investors may want to add to their watchlist entering the New Year. Also on the show, Anthony Sassine, senior investment strategist at KraneShares, gives his assessment of the electric vehicle sector -- going way beyond Tesla -- and Chuck answers a listener's question about ways to save a little more money in 2023.
Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, expects the Federal Reserve to do two more big interest rate hikes -- one now and one in the first quarter of 2023 -- which will keep the bond market choppy, but he believes the worst pain the bond market has suffered this year has passed. He expects the Fed to pause for the remainder of 2023, rather than pivot in its policies, with inflation having peaked but receding slowly. Mondillo cites strong fixed-income fundamentals -- particularly for municipal bonds -- despite the economic slowdown he sees ahead. Eric Veiel, head of global equity for T. Rowe Price, discusses the firm's recent research showing how its active management strategies outperformed appropriate index benchmarks over the last 20 years, and points out that active management doesn't necessarily deserve the bad name that indexing has given it in that time frame. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question about taking required minimum distributions from retirement accounts given current market conditions, and we revisit a recent Market Call interview with Amber Fairbanks, portfolio manager at Mirova.
Benjamin Halliburton, founder and chief investment officer at the Building Benjamins investment newsletter, says that inflation and interest rates bottoming out last year after a decline/trend that lasted for 40 years has now put investors into a new territory, forcing them to consider areas and industries that benefitted from decades of disinflation. It's the biggest inflection point of most investors' lifetimes, he says, but it's an adjustment that people will need to make to keep the profits rolling in the changed conditions they'll see for years to come. Also on the show, Washington Post columnist Helaine Olen discusses how Medicare Advantage will be used by more consumers this year than traditional Medicare coverage, and how that is creating a disadvantage to the country and to the many people who don't understand entirely what they are signing up for and who are falling for bad commercial messages. Plus, Chuck talks about giving gifts of stock for the children and grandchildren in your life.
Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that the U.S. stock market may be better positioned than the rest of the world right now, that's mostly because the outlook for almost all global markets right now is grim. He's anticipating trouble -- and sparse to no growth for the U.S. market and economy -- with little reason for optimism expected until the end of next year. Meanwhile, he described three types of bear markets -- apa Bear, Mama Bear and Baby Bear -- and says he thinks current problems will lead to the middle ground, but notes that a Mama Bear can be deep and difficult. Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the national Retail Federation and a member of the National Association for Business Economics Outlook Survey Committee discusses the results of the latest poll of economists, released today, showing that the researchers aren't holding out much optimism for 2023. Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts another 'zombie stock' into The Danger Zone and in the Market Call, Andy Braun, portfolio manager for the Pax Large Cap fund, talks about stocks.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S and P Global Ratings, sees trouble ahead for the economy early in 2023, as it moves through a recession and adjusts to slowing growth that is likely to be negative early on before picking up in May or June. Even with those gains, he expects the year to be flat on growth overall until 2024. Also on the show, Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive at Saratoga Investment Corp. -- a large business-development company -- talks about the edge that BDCs have given income investors during today's sluggish market conditions and discusses why he thinks that advantage could grow as the market works through a potential recession. Plus, Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management, covers stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that investors should expect volatile choppy markets -- moving sideways at best -- while the economy pivots away from the rising inflation and interest rate trend, but that investors shouldn't expect much good news until at least May of 2023. Kelly says that he expects China to pivot on some of its policies early in 2023, which will make its economy and stock market the only market with higher cash flows and an easier central bank come springtime, encouraging investment there while the rest of the world markets are volatile and choppy. He also suggests that investors will want to take the reasonable yields they can get on bonds while waiting for the equity markets to improve. Also on the show today, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi goes international with a trend-following pick for his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com discusses all of the action around jobs and the labor market this week and what it portends for the news cycle and the stock market, and Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting, which he notes might be as popular with investors this year as holiday shopping is with consumers.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that fallout from the current global supply-chain crisis will be a worldwide shift to there is going to "near-sourcing," the ability to have suppliers closer to home, which will lead to Corporate American spending money to make it happen, which should benefit industrial companies and energy stocks moving forward. Those sectors plus health care should be leading as the market and economy head into a volatile 2023 that McKnight says may not include a recession if the Federal Reserve gets its moves right. Also on the show, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster returns to the show to discuss how inflation has been hitting some of the biggest holiday expense items hard and how higher costs could be the Grinch to steal Christmas traditions this year, plus we revisit a recent chat all about the financial and banking sectors with David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large-Cap Financial and Hennessy Small-Cap Financial funds.
Glory Liu, author of "Adam Smith's America: How a Scottish Philosopher Became an Icon of American Capitalism," says that people evoking the famous economist's memory to support their thinking are typically wrong about his teachings, noting that the patron saint of capitalism had a lot of ideas that have mostly been forgotten by leaders and politicians trying to appropriate his fame and use it as an endorsement. She suggests it might be a warning sign as to what is being promoted using Smith as a tool. Also on the show, Patrick Fisher, founder of Creation Investments Capital Management, discusses active ESG investments in banking, micro-loans and fintech in underserved parts of the world, plus retirement planner Jeremy Keil of Keil Financial Partners talks about the impact that sustained inflation is having on senior clients and how people can respond and plan to get through price hikes.
Eric Boughton, portfolio manager/chief analyst at Matisse Capital -- which runs mutual funds that invest in closed-end funds -- says that investors can find attractive discounts in a few sectors right now, notably in municipal bonds, high-yield and bank-loan funds are worth investigating in fixed income, with foreign stocks and MLP funds (investing in master limited partnerships) leading the opportunity set in equities. Boughton notes that investors can do significant "discount capture" -- making profitable trades as discounts to net asset value narrow and change, using that volatility as an additional way to generate profits. Also on the show, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster discusses the pressure consumers are feeling -- and especially younger shoppers -- to spend up this holiday season, plus we revisit a late October interview with Chris Davis, portfolio manager and chairman of Davis Advisors, a conversation Chuck has described as "one of the very best interviews we will do on the show this year."
It's Black Friday, ahead of Cyber Monday and the start of the home stretch for holiday shopping, but it's not just about what's happening with retailers. John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors sorts through the big discounts in the closed-end fund world right now and comes up with four issues -- two in stocks and two in fixed-income -- that would be sound additions to an investor's holiday wish list now. Then the talk turns to retail fraud as Melanie McGovern of the International Association of Better Business Bureaus, discusses how online fraud losses thus far in 2022 have hit record levels of nearly $400 million before the holiday shopping season even gets up to speed, then Julie Ramhold of DealNews talks about the differences between Black Friday and Cyber Monday and how consumers can make the most of both days and the rest of the holiday bargains, plus Chuck discusses steps that listeners can take to keep the holidays in perspective during times of rising interest rates and high inflation.
Colin McWey, portfolio manager at Heartland Advisors, says that current market conditions are setting up well for value-oriented investors, because it is clear that many companies e market is building a scenario where a lot of companies will be worth much more in three to five years, although a number of stocks that were overpriced in 2020 and '21 will never re-attain past highs. The wash-out of companies that had a disconnect between fundamentals and enormous expectations was necessary, McWey says, but now the market is going through a healthy cleansing where the market is starting to respect a valuation discipline again, focusing on fundamentals in order to realize that profit potential as the market rebounds in the next few years. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a dividend-income fund with a covered-call strategy his pick for ETF of the Week, Regina Conway of Slickdeals discusses consumers' shopping expectations for Black Friday and hedge-fund manager Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks about stocks in the Money Life Market Call.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says that the market has reached a key point, and he believes the lows the market made in June and retouched in October -- in the 3,500 range for the standard & Poor's 500 -- will stick, and last several quarters. He remains positive on the market for now, noting that his key indicators remain green, but notes he won't be surprised if the market re-tests those lows before moving forward again in 2023. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management, discusses the rising cost of the "12 Days of Christmas," noting that inflation in the firm's Christmas Price Index is running even higher than inflation elsewhere in the economy, and how that reflects current events and broad economic conditions, author Paul Tucker discusses his new book, "Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order" and, in the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., discusses large-cap companies with a history of paying/raising dividends.
Brian Overby, senior markets strategist at Ally, says that the market is in a good place to have a Santa Claus rally into the end of the year, boosted by the strong consumer, but he noted that good news could carry into 2023 with an economy that could actually pull off a soft landing so long as employment, inflation and spending numbers stay where expected and continue current trends. Overby noted that while current conditions are rocky, it makes for a selective buying opportunity while waiting for the Federal Reserve to show its cards for the new year. Also on the show, Marc Zeitoun of Columbia Threadneedle discusses a survey showing that advisers and investors are looking for more flexible strategies to get by in rough markets, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a low-priced maker of oat milk and similar products in "The Danger Zone" and, in the Market Call, Bernie Horn, manager of the Polaris Global Value Fund talks about buying stocks in the messy market conditions currently being experienced around the world.
Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree, says that while everyone is counting on the Federal Reserve to beat back inflation and tackle the economic problems facing the nation, 'the reality is that some of the issues we are facing aren't the kind of issues that the Fed has the ability to fix." He warns that if global supply chains struggle, prices will remain high no matter what happens with interest rates, and a worst-case scenario would be stagflation where unemployment is rising but prices email high; while that is not his base case for what's next, he expects a recession in 2023 as the price paid for getting a handle on inflation and returning the economy to more normal times. Also on the show, Michael Grayson, portfolio manager for three interval funds from First Trust Capital Management, says that investors should be giving up some liquidity to get the flexibility to invest in assets that their standard mutual fund or ETF can't hold responsibly, allowing investors to generate decent returns at times when the rest of the market is struggling. Plus, Jamie Dunaway-Seale of Clever Real Estate discusses the site's recent survey showing that a surprising number of home sellers are feeling remorse for the move they made, and Chuck answer's a listener's question on where to park short-term cash now to generate yield responsibly without taking on too much risk.
Barry Metzger, managing director of trading and education at Charles Schwab, says that the firm's latest trader sentiment survey shows that nearly 60% of traders feel like the United States is already in a recession or will be in one by the end of the year, with nearly that entire group believing that the economic slowdown will last less than one year. These traders -- investors who make 80 or more transactions in a year, but not part of the day-trading community -- are largely bearish, but believe there are opportunities in energy, health care and consumer staples. They are rotating toward value stocks and fixed income. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about a fund that was up double-digits just a week ago off of the inflation news, a move so big that it moved the ETF above its 200-day moving average and put it back into buying territory. Chuck answers a listener's question on cryptocurrency trading and the concept of "not your keys, not your coins," and the show revisits a recent interview with Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel.
Jeff Spiegel, U.S. head of iShares megatrend and international ETFs at BlackRock, says that high inflation is not a megatrend that will last decades, but it has created an environment in which investors will want to be more selective, looking for compelling reasons for long-0term growth. Specifically, he identified infrastructure and clean energy plays, health-care innovation and cybersecurity and robotics as industries with the juice to grow now but the potential to keep growing for decades. Also on the show, Rachna Ramachandran, an analyst on the high-yield strategies team at GMO, says that junk bonds yielding 9 percent today are priced as if default rates could reach 14 percent, dramatically higher than even the most bearish observers expect, which ultimately is making it worthwhile for investors to take on more high-yield risk. And Chuck goes Off the News with veteran financial columnist Allan Sloan of The Washington Post, who notes that the storied stock winners of just a year ago -- the FAANG stocks most notably among them -- have turned into today's biggest losers.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that while there are real positives to take away from recent market activity, the lag effect from Federal Reserve actions will slow growth, earnings and profit margins sufficiently to create a small recession in the spring or summer of 2023. She recommends selectively managing portfolios to add balance, but warns against "taking wild swings at this market because things can change too quickly and you'll get caught on the wrong side of that." Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Turner Research says that most of the indications he is seeing on the secular trend are negative right now, which is why he is keeping powder dry waiting for signs that there is more potential for real upturns rather than short bear-market rallies. Plus, Vern Sumnicht, chief executive officer at iSectors.com, makes his debut in the Market Call talking exchange-traded funds.
Amber Fairbanks, portfolio manager at Mirova on the firm's global sustainable equity strategy, says that she thinks a recession is coming, likely early next year and while she expects it to be mild, investors and experts are mostly guessing at that because there is no real precedent for the kind of high inflation, rising rate environment we are seeing today. Fairbanks, speaking in the Market Call segment, also talked about sustainable equities, which is a good comparison for the Big Interview segment featuring Venk Reddy, chief investment officer for sustainable credit strategies at Osterweis Capital Management, who also noted that market conditions are going to favor active managers who can separate the worthy credit investments from the ones that will get caught up in negative market conditions. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits a recent Danger Zone pick that he says has joined the walking dead of zombie stocks, and Christian Mitchell discusses a recent Northwestern Mutual survey showing that investors now believe they will need $1.25 million -- more than ever -- to retire comfortably in the face of current inflationary pressures.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that buying smart in the stock market requires making investments when they feel bad, which despite this week's rally is still the case today. He foresees some recessionary troubles for 2023, but thinks the recovery from a bear market will be "normal" and likely accomplished within two years. Thus, even while he warns that earnings and conditions will look worse in the short run, the long run will benefit people who keep investing now. Likewise, Buck Klintworth, senior vice president at Chase Investment Counsel, thinks that the overwhelming evidence in the market is that this week's rally is not the start of a new bull market, but rather is a reprieve in a downturn that has longer to run. He too believes that there are good opportunities among some sectors that don't look great in current conditions, but which might lead the way next year. Also on the show, Mitchel Penn of Oppenheimer & Co. discusses the ups and downs of business development companies in the rising-rate, high inflation market, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds talks about insider buying and selling and its influence on certain stocks in the Market Call.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund and the Dividend and Income Fund, says that investors have to adjust their psychology to recognize that it is a preserve of value, and while it has struggled this year in its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, it will hold up well against bonds, where investors have been lured by higher yields that look good but can't keep pace with inflation. Winmill says central bankers around the world have been buying it and that they have a good track record for timing a recovery, which he thinks will happen gradually ove the next three to six months as the dollar weakens. Winmill notes that investors who have tried to use cryptocurrency instead of gold as an inflation hedge have suffered much larger losses than gold investors this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com takes an unusual step -- pegged to this week's election -- as his pick for ETF of the Week is influenced by politics, and Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, talks about "beat and raise" stock investing in the Market Call.
Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its rate hikes by March, creating a good environment for bonds and cash to generate a real return with minimal risk. But first, he says the stock market will likely rally down the final stretch of 2022, but that because the stock market has never bottomed ahead of the start of a recession he expects a reversal that takes out the lows before the Fed pivots and the market can start a slow recovery during or after a mild recession in mid- to late 2023. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and how the crush of rising prices at the gas pump outshined the euphoria from dramatically rising stock prices in October, leaving investors feeling more down in the dumps than ever, plus, in the Market Call, Tom Plumb, chief executive officer at The Plumb Funds, talks stocks and valuation and market changes in the current high-inflation, rising rate environment.
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, says that inflation could begin dropping next year while unemployment remains low, conditions which run counter to the traditional recessionary playbook. He says that the reasons for inflation over the last few years could be unique to the Covid era -- fiscal stimulus, unusual supply chains, a shift in how people spend money moving from services to goods, war in Ukraine and more -- which could set up "a great scenario" and a potential soft landing. He sees the economy side-stepping recession until late next year or 2024, and sees strong potential investment opportunities in the interim. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager covering the financial services sector for the Hennessy Funds, says that Wall Street is in recession but the rest of the economy isn't, and while Wall Street wants that kind of pain -- because a recession is good for Wall Street -- he doesn't see that kind of downturn materializing right now, agreeing with Cleveland that low unemployment and other conditions make the current downturn very different than the great financial crisis of 2008. Plus, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com returns with the site's look at retail store charge cards, which now have an average interest rate nearing 30 percent, a new record.
Adam Ballantyne, senior analyst at Cambiar Investors, says the Federal Reserve needs to keep talking as if inflation is far from over because their job is to dare us into a recession or near recession to cure the economy's problems, but he notes that "The reality is we might be peaking right here." Half of the inInflation is driven by housing, energy and medicare costs, and Ballantyne says those items do appear to have topped or are near to it, meaning "It could very well be the case that the next Fed rate increase is the last one." Ballantyne believes that the economy can also post a reasonable recovery from the current troubles, because consumers are not overextended, so they will be ready to participate once they are certain that prices are again under control. Also on the show, Ted Rossman from CreditCards.com discusses the pitfalls that consumers have experienced and worry about when lending money to friends and family, David Trainer, of New Constructs revisits his troubling take on Shopify, which he puts squarely in "The Danger Zone," and Herb Greenberg, senior editor at Empire Financial Research, discusses his annual takedown of Medicare drug pricing and how consumers can fight a system that works against them every year to the tune of hundreds or thousands of dollars.
Shep Perkins, chief investment officer for equities at Putnam Investments, says that once the Federal Reserve sees an uptick in unemployment and the economy slowing and cuts back on rate increases, the stock market will find a bottom and begin a sharp recovery once the all-clear is sounded. While investors will need to be patient waiting for that rebound to start, Perkins says there are plenty of compelling values for patient investors who are willing to wait for investments made into today's bad news to pay off in tomorrow's profits. Also talking about compelling values on today's show is John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, who says that today's rate uncertainty has created attractive entry points for some municipal-bond funds because they are trading at big discounts and, in many cases, have gone through a dividend cut, which reduces the potential for another cut moving forward. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market has reached a sweet spot just as investors are feeling most crunched. Between the historic effects of the calendar -- when November starts the market's best six-month period historically -- and the impact of mid-term elections and more, Hirsch sees the market rebounding from its current recession/bear market posture, with strong potential for 2023 to be a good year for investors.
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's forth jumbo rate hike of the year -- announced yesterday -- is not likely to trigger a deep inflation, but the central bank did leave consumers wondering just how effective the rate hikes will be at slowing and ending inflation. - hiking activity will end or, at least slow, the rise in consumer prices. Bory adds that while higher yields are not great for all financial assets, they do help fixed-income investors to generate a reasonable real return now. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi also delves into interest rates by making a short-duration bond fund his pick for ETF of the Week honors, andi n the Market Call, Simon Lack of SL Advisors returns to the show to discuss energy infrastructure and pipeline companies.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says the stock market is in for some dicey moments heading into 2023 and through the first few months of the year, but he is calling for the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit 4,400 -- roughly 15 percent higher than it is today -- by the end of next year, a recovery that is set up by solid economic underpinnings that he says will come to the fore once inflation is under better control. Also on the show, Anu Ganti of S&P Global discusses how the Dow Jones Industrial Average during October posted its best month in nearly 47 years, Jerome Clark of T. Rowe Price -- a pioneer of target-date investing -- discusses how and why target-date investors have performed by staying the course in market times tempting them into making portfolio changes, and Lin Ho of Zelros covers the site's recent survey on how consumers feel they are being gouged for insurance coverage and how to make sure you're getting the most for your insurance dolar.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, says that while there is no sugar-coating the problems of the economy -- inflation, rising interest rates, a rough housing market and more -- the likely recession that lies ahead will be shallow, and will have a reasonable recovery once the Federal Reserve proves that the bitter medicine it is providing to quash inflation won't go overboard and kill the patient. Also on the show, Mark Hulbert discusses his recent column on MarketWatch where he added his own flair to some new academic research showing that the classic "4 percent rule" on retirement withdrawals is leading savers astray and that the proper spending amount to ensure that someone not outlive their money may be less than half of what most people are planning for. Plus Chuck talks about his annual cash-or-candy, trade-or-treat Halloween event and the choices his neighborhood kids went for when they came to his home Tuesday night.
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that the stock market has been signalling a coming recession -- albeit not likely to be "a deep scary one" -- but the key will be the speed of recovery, and that may hinge on how and when the Federal Reserve eases up on or reverses interest-rate hikes. Crosby notes that one thing that will help the recovery is that the dollar should weaken once the Fed makes it clear that the cycle of rate hikes is ending; she pointed to multi-national companies like Apple and Microsoft as examples of firms who saw global revenue growth hindered by the strength of the dollar. Also on the show: Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a four-star mutual fund into "The Danger Zone," noting that it's filled with dangerous stocks and that past performance isn't likely to dictate future success; Greg Jenkins, head of institutional defined contribution for Invesco, examines the firm's recent survey showing that employees feel alone -- and unsupported by their employers -- in trying to determine the best investment strategy for retirement, and author and investment adviser Kristen Ragusin discusses her new book, "The End of Scarcity: The Dawn of the New Abundant World.”
Karl Mills, president of Jurika Mills & Kiefer, says that negative investor sentiment is a precondition of a rebound, but he's looking for more signals that the economy and stock market is bottoming out. For example, Mills says that earnings haven't declined much yet, but he expects them to because of the squeeze that current conditions are putting on profits. The result is that Mills is taking a cautious, "shelter from the storm" approach, noting that there is still a lot of downside risk even though the market can see and already price in the coming recession he sees as arriving as the calendar turns. In The NAVigator segment, Mark Milner of Parametric Portfolio Associates, says that a lot of closed-end fund asset classes have now reached double-digit discount territory, "which historically has been a good opportunity to buy closed-end funds," although he worries about a coming boom in year-end tax-loss selling -- larger than in years past as a result of the market's 2023 downturn -- could impact closed-end assets as the New Year approaches. Plus, in the Market Call, Eric Marshall, president and portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management, discusses bottoms-up investing in blue-chip stocks.
Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says that the market has taken the pain of higher rates but is watching that work its way through the economy and corporate earnings while facing wildcards like Covid-19, war in Ukraine and more that could extend current troubles. Still, despite an "epically bad" start to the year for the bond market -- coupled with hard times in equities -- Freund says that it is "not a foregone conclusion" that what lies ahead is a crash, and he expects the downturn to pass from here with a more limited amount of financial pain. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice-chairman at VettaFi, focuses on free cash-flow and quality domestic companies with his pick for "ETF of the Week," and Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management returns to the Market Call to discuss deep-value investing and just how messy he is willing to get in a market where the global valuation picture has been changing rapidly.
Christopher Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors and the Davis Funds, says that "the bubble has been pricked" on the "crazy, hyper-speculative" growth companies, but that has put some names into the stock market's sweet spot, especially for investors with long time horizons and a value-investing bent. A year ago on the show , Davis said that a hybrid value style that encompassed "undervalued growth companies and value stocks that can grow" would be well positioned for whatever the market could dish out, and he now says the strategy has proven its worth; while the markets have bloodied all investors, Davis believes it has positioned investors to be long-term winners by staying the course. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's latest survey showing that inflation concerns are making investors even more nervous that their retirement savings are falling behind, and Chuck talks about his annual Halloween "cash or candy" giveaway and how he will be working it on the trick-or-treaters this year, expecting the kids to be feeling the pinch of inflation this year too.
Tom Siomades, chief investment officer at AE Wealth Management and Advisors Excel, says that he believes the economy has been in recession for much of this year, and that he sees that ending as soon as the Federal Reserve gets inflation under control, which he expects to happen by early next year. He notes that the pundits calling for recession next year are late to the game; meanwhile, that time frame makes it easier for investors to stay the course with the investment portfolios built during the bull market. Also on the show, Matt Brannon of Clever Real Estate discusses the site's new survey showing that inflation is forcing roughly 40 percent of Americans to change buying habits on everyday goods, but which also highlights ways in which consumers misunderstand how inflation works and how bad the current situation is relative to the past. And in the Market Call, portfolio manager Adam Coons of Winthrop Capital Management discusses exchange-traded funds and the difficulty of finding issues that can be productive "satellites" to a core portfolio now.
Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at CUNA Mutual Group, says that central bankers are engineering a recession in order to kill inflation, and that investors are asking the wrong questions when they wonder how deep and how long a recession will be instead of wondering whether the mild recession most people expect will be enough to get the job done and fix the problem. Knapp believes that inflation is stubborn enough -- and that core inflation is accelerating -- to force a "more meaningful recession" that creates a longer downturn. Despite that forecast, Knapp says he is sticking with current asset allocations to ride things out, noting that a lot of the recession is already priced into the market. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs revisits Tesla in "The Danegr Zone," discussing whether Elon Musk's distractions are adding pressure to a tenuous market position, Jenn Tracy discusses an IPX1031 survey in which half of Americans say that their dream home is "unattainable" in today's rising-rate, high-cost real estate market and, in the Market Call, David Barse, chief executive officer at XOUT Capital discusses the importance of eliminating worrisome stocks from a portfolio.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says he thinks there is at least a 50 percent chance of a recession, but says that the whole idea that the Federal Reserve can "engineer a soft landing is a fairy tale," noting that a perfect ending to today's economic troubles isn't impossible, but "if it happens, it's just going to happen because it happened," not because the Fed actions caused it. Frick notes "a mild recession could be a tonic to a lot of what ails the economy right now." Also on the show, Gretchen Lam, senior portfolio manager at Octagon Credit Investors talks about how rising interest rates are helping the credit market now -- minimizing losses compared to most fixed-income investments -- and how loans have performed during periods of rate hikes in the past; Anna Mabry of Calvert Impact Capital discusses "community investment notes," direct investments that individuals can buy for as little as $50 that function as a fixed-income alternative while also trying to make a positive impact on communities, and Chuck answer's a listener's question about allowances, when to start them and how to structure them.
Michael Sincere, author of the Michael Sincere's Long-Term Trader column on MarketWatch.com, says that there are nine stages to a bear market and that the recent rallies are proving that this downturn isn't quite halfway through those steps, making the road to recovery long. He expects the bear market to last for at least another 12 months, and while he sees some potential rallies in there -- and even sees potential for a significant spike higher -- he suggests investors should be wary about taking the bait and should maintain a slug of cash (money market funds and short-duration Treasury funds) in their asset allocation until the technicals support that the recovery is on. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of Vetta Fi puts a happy face on a brand new fund in the "ETF of the Week," Jaime Dunaway-Seale of Clever Real Estate discusses a recent survey showing that a surprising number of Americans would be willing to buy a haunted house in order to get a home in these competitive, higher-cost times for the real estate market, and Dan Keady -- the chief financial planning strategist at TIAA -- discusses the impact of the recent, large cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and how that extra income will help seniors and soon-to-be retirees fend off the sequence-of-return risk that is the big concern for seniors right now.
Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer at the ICON Funds -- who correctly called the bottom of the pandemic-driven bear market in March 2020 -- says that there are signs that the stock market has been through the ringer, but it's not yet showing enough signs that it has reached a bottom. Callahan says the market is roughly at fair value, not nearly beaten up enough to create the kind of widespread bargains normally found at a market bottom. the way it typically would be in As a result, he is holding maximum cash, waiting for inflation to start to ease, which should key the market reaction that puts him back in a buying mood. Also on the show, Rich Compson, head of managed accounts at Fidelity Investments talks about "direct indexing" or personalized indexing, and how it is now available to average investors with much smaller account balances; and in the Market Call, Scott Davies, founder and chief investment officer at CDAM, talks about international value investing now.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says that while investors are suffering with the struggling market, he does not see a deep, protracted recession, and he says that investors who have priced in a much bigger downturn have created a buying opportunity that people may struggle to take advantage of because of the emotions of the downturn; he cites a number of data points that have him overweight to equities relative to fixed income now, which is a contrary position to many money managers now. Also on the show, Bob Pisani, senior markets correspondent for CNBC discusses his new book out today, "Shut Up and Keep Talking: Lessons on Life and Investing from the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange," and Nicholas Bohnsack, chief executive officer at Strategas Asset Management discusses "macro thematic opportunities" and the stocks that represent those opportunities now.
David Goerz, chief executive officer at Strategic Frontier Management, says that some well-known blue-chip companies are trading at single-digit price-earnings ratios lower than in the last two decades, creating opportunities for investors, but we are in an environment where investors could sell stocks and buy bonds expecting a better return, and the only asset class that he thinks can generate a positive return is cash. Goerz defends holding more cash right now despite an inflation rate that ultimately gives cash investments a negative real return, noting that losing a little ground to inflation is still a better outcome than losing a lot of ground in stocks and bonds. Also on the show, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, discusses a survey showing that nearly everyone across the country is planning to celebrate Halloween and plans to spend more money doing it, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a stock in The Danger Zone that he says was not rescued by a white knight recently but was instead pushed to the brink, and Manny Weintraub of Spears Abacus talks about finding compounders and other "super great stocks that are not going to kill you."
Warren Pierson, co-chief investment officer at the Baird Funds, says that after a long period where bond payouts were so low that investors had no choice and no alternative but to invest in stocks, things have now moved to where investors should be looking at bond yields because that's where they can find good values now. Pierson says that odds of a recession have risen, and while he does not expect a particularly long or difficult economic downturn, he believes investors should focus on investment-grade, quality bonds to ride it out. Also on the show, Duncan Farley, portfolio manager for the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund, talks about alternative fixed-income opportunities, Zach Gildehaus of Edward Jones discusses charitable giving and making donations go farther and do more, and Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer at Essex Investment Management, makes her debut in the Market Call talking about small-cap stocks.
Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that investors didn't expect the Federal Reserve to let troubling times linger, but now the central bank can't make a change on a dime, so investors should now be waiting for the Fed to pivot on its strategy, a change he does not think will happen soon. Sargen expects a recession that is "not that long and not that deep," though he acknowledges there is enough uncertainty to make it last longer before those weak spots can be shored up. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to an international fund that hedges currency risk -- a hot topic in today's markets -- for his ETF of the Week, Maria Feller of SurePayroll talks about a survey showing that nearly 40 percent of Americans find that subscription services -- managing them and getting the most out of their money -- is adding to their financial stress, and in the Market Call, Justin Carbonneau, vice president at Validea.com discusses the ways in which legendary investors are or would be picking stocks in today's downbeat market.
Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle Investments -- senior portfolio manager of the Columbia Thermostat Fund -- says that the sell-off in stocks has not been the result of bad earnings reports, but rather has been driven by multiple compression, and until investors are willing to pay more for earnings, the stock and bond markets will be muted at best. Investors won't likely come around until the Federal Reserve signals its intentions on whether it will continue or halt its program of interest rates hikes; until that is clear, Bahuguna says there's too much uncertainty to be anything more than neutral about current conditions. Also on the show, Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, says in the Market Call segment that the market's woes have pushed a lot of stock valuations attractively below fair-value estimates, making stocks like Meta Platforms, Google, the communications industry and much more into attractive buying ranges, noting that while investors may have to be patient to wait for the payoff, he expects patience to be rewarded based on the discounts he says that the market has been applying to many company. Plus, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and explains why he thinks the measure is showing that investors have reached a point where there is hardly any optimism at all.
Dan Wiener, co-editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser -- his new effort at tracking the world's largest fund company after his long-running newsletter was shuttered by its publisher -- discusses the value and success of touts, tipsters, newsletters and online services as he shares his plans for how he will continue to independently cover and follow Vanguard. Chuck also goes "Off the News" with Brett Arends, retirement columnist for MarketWatch, discussing his recent piece on how much retirement an individual can purchase for $100,000 and the value of annuities as a tool for retirement planning and living, especially in times when savers are more nervous than ever about conditions that could imperil their future comfort levels. Plus, author Bruce Carruthers discusses "The Economy of Promises: Trust, Power and Credit in America" and the evolution of the lending and credit industries and how the dynamics have shifted from personal judgments of who to trust to quantitative, algorithmic impersonal assessments of who is a good risk.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, says investors should be deciding their current course based mostly on their reactions to current conditions. He believes that the worst is behind us in terms of the pullback in stocks, record-setting inflation and the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve, which has him expecting better days ahead and positioning to take advantage of them, but he notes that investors who disagree and who are still uncomfortable and losing sleep at night should own up to their risk tolerance and be building in more downside protection to their portfolio now. One group that does not necessarily agree with Mahn's optimism is the National Association for Business Economics, which today released its October 2022 Economic Outlook Survey; Ken Simonson starts today's interviews talking about just how pessimistic the economists are and how bad they foresee conditions getting in the recession that most of them foresee for the end of the year and the start of 2023. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Twitter and Netflix in The Danger Zone, noting that the two big name companies are showing street estimates that he considers out-of-whack with reality, making them likely to suffer an earnings miss when quarterly numbers come out soon and, in the Market Call, Christopher Zook of CAZ Investments discusses thematic investing and finding growth at a reasonable price now.
Meb Faber, chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that with traditional safe havens not working/protecting against the current downturn, many investors are reaching the point where they can't take it any more, becoming more "emotional and crazy," and that it will get exponentially worse with every additional 10 percent decline -- which he believes might happen before the market can turn around. That kind of panicky behavior, Faber says, is that it keeps them from investing in the solid long-term values that he sees currently around the world. That said, investors might want to head for the cliff after hearing Avi Gilburt, founder of ElliottWave Trader, talking technicals on this show, as he expects the market to have a pop back to record high levels before it embarks on a bear market cycle that he expects to last at least seven years, but which he says could be the predominant trend for two decades. Gilburt says that if the market can't squeeze one more rally out of the long-running bullish cycle, it's a sign that the next wave has begun and that the market could get very ugly -- roughly cut in half from here -- during the downturn he foresees lasting roughly for the remainder of this decade. Also on the show, Robert Bush, director of closed-end products at Calamos Investments, discusses how convertible securities -- built to let investors have their cake and eat it too -- have been underperforming in current conditions, and, in the Market Call, John Barr of the Needham Growth and Needham Aggressive Growth funds discusses the benefits of buying "compounders" even in markets where growth is hard to come by.
Chris Brightman, chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, explains how he believes the British financial system was threatened during a recent pension crisis that forced central bankers there to step in to overcome a liquidity crisis. Brightman says he expects to see similar issues popping up in markets around the globe, noting that "it's really hard to engineer the sort-of global tightening cycle that we're in and not break anything in the financial system." Those troubles, coupled with the strength of the dollar, create buying opportunities for domestic investors, Brightman says, noting that long-term investors "are likely to do much better investing in the U.K. stock market than the U.S. stock market." Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com says that current market conditions call for buying stocks in companies with competitive advantages that will help them weather the storm, which is why he made VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat his pick as "ETF of the Week," and Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, says that the market is getting to a point where there are a lot of potential buys; he talks in the Market Call about seeking out the best management talent and finding the right funds and ETFs to deliver above-average performance.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says she anticipates stock market and economic problems late this year -- "especially if the Fed doesn't take it's foot off the accelerator" -- but she says the current environment will settle down so that investors can get their bearings and stay focused on the long-term, noting that there are reasons to be optimistic about the market for 2024 and beyond. Hooper says that the Federal Reserve will be the biggest determinant of how and when the market recovers, but said she feels that investors who get too short-sighted about what is happening now are likely to be more damaged by the actions of central bankers than those who ride it out. Also on the show, Matt Brannon, data analyst with Clever Real Estate, discusses their recent study of Americans' credit-card habits, which show that most of the personal finance gains reported and experienced around the pandemic have faded as Americans returned not only to their offices but to their bad pre-pandemic financial habits, and in the Market Call, Derek Izuel, chief investment officer at Shelton Capital Management discusses international investments in times when foreign markets are facing so many troubling forces beyond rising inflation.
JJ Kinahan, chief executive officer, IG North America -- parent company of tastyworks -- says that the stock market is showing signs that current high levels of volatility are likely to stick around into early next year; considering this abnormal market activity, Kinahan says there is nothing wrong with average investors regrouping and taking a breather while waiting for more clear direction from the market. Kinahan notes that he has seen over the last five months more investors moving from individual stocks towards exchange-traded funds, because they believe in the market but worry about being burned by individual stocks blowing up. Also on the show, Jim Royal of Bankrate.com discusses a new survey showing that the current "crypto winter" has a lot of investors reconsidering their comfort level with cryptocurrencies, noting that he thinks the negative feelings go beyond the 60 percent decline that the biggest cryptos have experienced this year, and Martin Tarlie, portfolio manager and research analyst at GMO discusses the firm's research looking at how to properly deal with sequence-of-return risk, the condition many older investors are facing now as they look at retiring into a stock market that is struggling.
Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, says that the strong dollar is dramatically changing business conditions for U.S. companies, even as they deal with recessionary conditions. The dollar has gotten so strong, Weniger says, that it's an expensive country for companies and consumers, all of whom will have to deal with the headwinds created by the dollar. Weniger says that he expects the next six months to be characterized by significant volatility, which will give technology stocks a tough ride, which has him turning to utilities and consumer staples while waiting to see how the Federal Reserve's plans to deal with inflation play out. Also on the show, Hugh Tallents, senior partner at cg42.com discusses his recent research into "buy now, pay later" plans and says that consumer behaviors are inflation a debt bubble that could lead to real trouble for the industry as interest rates rise and the economy continues to falter in 2023; Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, adds Ring Central to a recent list of "zombie stocks" -- companies with no earnings that are burning through cash and are headed for trouble trying to raise more under current conditions -- noting that it has the potential to be bankrupt in as little as two months, and Mark Lehmann, chief executive officer at JMP Securities discusses stocks in the Market Call.
Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios -- author of the "Macro Tides" newsletter -- says the Federal Reserve will not be able to raise interest rates, calm the economy and bring rates right back down, noting that current conditions are reminiscent of a 15-year period from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s when the market was largely flat as the central bank struggled to keep inflation in check. If the market repeats that kind of long-term doldrums, Welsh says that buy-and-hold investors will be disappointed in the long run. That's doubly scary when considering the comments of Chris Maxey, chief market strategist at Wealthspire, who says in The Big Interview that investors need to take a longer-term approach to deal with current volatility and Fed policy-making and the recession he sees ahead for 2023. In The NAVigator segment, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses and compares floating-rate and senior loan funds to preferred-securities funds, noting that floating-rate funds are a tool for combating high and rising interest rates, while preferred equities are a good weapon for battling a recession, which may lead investors to "split the ticket" in order to deal with today's complex markets. In the Market Call, Aleksandr Spencer, chief investment officer at Bogart Wealth, discusses tactical investing and the right funds and ETFs for the job now.
Long-time investment writer John Waggoner, the financial editor for AARP.org, says that investors aren't seeing the proverbial "blood running in the streets" despite the stock market's recent downturn, so it's not a simple "buy the dips, ride it out" market. Instead, it's a balance of holding more cash and deploying it selectively, while also considering ways to reduce the long-term impact that current conditions can have on a retirement portfolio. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a short-duration bond fund -- an ideal and popular parking place for cash given current market conditions -- his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses a survey showing that it's already beginning to look a lot like Christmas as holiday shoppers get busy early in an attempt to stave off inflation this year, and, in the Market Call, Chris Armbruster, portfolio manager and senior research analyst at Kayne Anderson Rudnick talks about building concentrated portfolios and investing in mid-cap stocks
Jason Thomas, chief executive officer at Portfolio Design Labs, says that the toughest challenge facing investors right now is that safe assets -- which had done their job reasonably well during downdrafts over the last 30 years -- aren't delivering now, forcing investors to change their plans to better ride through inflationary and recessionary times. Thomas says that with the dividend portion of high-dividend stocks being undervalued, a mix of those steady payers plus short-duration bonds will help investors get through the next few years to the next phase of both the market and their investment life cycle. Also on the show, Chuck talks about The Vanguard Group's announcement this week that it was shutting down a U.S. ETF for the first time ever, and what that action says about the company and the industry -- and what it means for you -- and Andrew Graham, founder and portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital talks in the Market Call about pursuing a growth investment strategy during a time when growth is hard to come by.
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts, says that he does not believe investors will be rewarded for "being early to buy the dip," warning that changing market conditions make it that waiting in cash to see more discernible trends will avoid losses and sidestep volatility while still allowing for upside potential once it becomes clear that the tide is turning. "The more cash you have on the sidelines" Delwiche says, "the better you're feeling about your position." Today's show also features the return of Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services, who is back to answer listener questions about the use of reverse mortgages, especially given current interest rate and market conditions, plus Maria Szatkowski of MyVision.org discusses the site's recent survey on medical procrastination caused by inflation plus the acceptance of telehealth and whether it helps to break the logjam, and we revisit a recent wide-ranging conversation with Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar Inc., in which she coins the term "index-fund abuse" and discusses the difference between making a portfolio and investment strategy recession-proof versus inflation-proof.
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer for the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that investors can win right now by not losing, and while holding cash won't keep pace with high inflation, he says being on the sidelines waiting for the market "to show some productive trends" is a sound strategy for current conditions. St. Aubin says that while the Federal Reserve's clear mission is to tame inflation even if it means triggering a recession, the stock market will continue to respond badly until it has a more clear direction. Also on the show, Mike Dowdall, chief investment officer at Alternative Fund Advisors, discusses the private credit market as an alternative to ordinary stocks and bonds in this market, David Botset of Schwab Asset Management discusses the firm's 11th annual study of ETF investors and their changing habits, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts a popular pandemic stock in "The Danger Zone," marking it as his latest "zombie stock," walking dead as it burns through cash with no sign of profits in sight.
Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief investment officer at Centerstone Investors, says that international stocks are already looking like good values but are likely to be priced even better with another drop from here, but it is creating "a dream scenario for anyone who has a three- to five-year time horizon," so while he sees the proverbial blood running in the streets globally, he thinks investors are "in that zone" where they should allocate more internationally to get the best prices now. Investors generally are feeling like the blood is running in the streets, which is why investor optimism is at its lowest levels since March 2009; Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Investors gives the high level of pessimism some context, and Toni Turner of Trendstar reflects on the market's technicals and ponders what might happen if June's lows don't hold up from here. Plus, Mark Scalzo of the newly listed Destra Multi-Alternative Fund discusses alternative investing and his fund's massive discount and, in the Market Call, Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors talks about stocks and holding fast to investment beliefs during volatile times.
Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services and the nation's preeminent expert on reverse mortgages, says that retirees are facing a delicate balancing act right now, worrying about sequence-of-return risk -- which is heightened during times of bear markets and high volatility -- but also how to fund retirement. Reverse mortgages can be a key tool in times like this, but Pfau says they become less effective as interest rates rise; coupled with wildly fluctuating housing values, it makes it crucial that retirement savers understand the math they are facing. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to oil and gas exploration for his "ETF of the Week," Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, weighs in on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on Wednesday and what its statements about the future portend for the market, and Ken Willner of TextNow.com discusses their recent survey on how consumers are dealing with inflation and what they are sacrificing -- or are willing to give up -- to stay on budget now.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, acknowledges that he is giving potentially controversial advice in suggesting that with interest rates still rising investors might look to buy longer-duration bonds, but he thinks that rates will peak soon and that investors who stay completely focused on short-term bonds will find themselves with significant re-investment risk -- the chance that they will be looking at lesser returns when bonds mature -- in a year or two. While he is not going way up the maturity scale, Thomas is looking to position both fixed-income and equity portfolios for a recovering and changed market and economy in the next two years. Also on the show, Chuck discusses the relative success -- or lack thereof -- that active managers have had in beating their passive benchmarks this year with Tim Edwards, managing director of index investment strategy, S&P Dow Jones Indices, discusses the rising percentage of Americans with long-term credit-card debt -- at just the wrong time to have it -- with Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com, and these strange times we are living through call for some "Weird Financial News" with stories about Elon Musk, donkey penises and more.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that the dividend aristocrats have grown their payouts beyond even the current levels of inflation, which makes them — along with companies that benefit from rising rate environments- the sweet spot for tilting a portfolio now. In The Big Interview, he also discusses how to tilt a fixed income portfolio for today’s challenging conditions. Also on the show, Ken Tumin, founder and editor at DepositAccounts.com, talks about what rising interest rates have already done to consumers and savers and says that the next, upcoming rate hike is not going to reward savers looking for a safe place to keep pace with inflation. And in the Market Call, Brad Lamensdorf of the The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and chief executive officer at Active Alts, discusses the need to be selective about shorting stocks, because the ebbing tide right now is not taking all companies out with it.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that the dividend aristocrats have grown their payouts beyond even the current levels of inflation, which makes them — along with companies that benefit from rising rate environments- the sweet spot for tilting a portfolio now. In The Big Interview, he also discusses how to tilt a fixed income portfolio for today’s challenging conditions. Also on the show, Ken Tumin, founder and editor at DepositAccounts.com, talks about what rising interest rates have already done to consumers and savers and says that the next, upcoming rate hike is not going to reward savers looking for a safe place to keep pace with inflation. And in the Market Call, Brad Lamensdorf of the The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and chief executive officer at Active Alts, discusses the need to be selective about shorting stocks, because the ebbing tide right now is not taking all companies out with it.
Thomas Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors in Denver says that last week's inflation news and other current conditions have increased the potential for recession, and he notes that the historical decline for a bear market with a recession is 35 percent, which will have the market testing June lows and likely going deeper, potentially dropping the Standard & Poor's 500 to the 3,000 to 3,200 range. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs singles out Affirm Holdings, a buy now, pay later shop that has seen its stock price fall from roughly $175 to under $25 in the last year as a zombie stock with real potential to go to zero. And we revisit a recent conversation with billionaire David Rubenstein, co-founder of The Carlyle Group, one of the world's most successful investors and philanthropists.
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that history shows that when inflation has peaked, the stock market has bottomed, and he believes inflation peaked in June, which along with other conditions means that the bottom is in. Still, he notes that the market will be "discomfortable" as the economy moves back and forth from inflation to recession. He does believe that a mild recession is still coming, but that things will look and feel a lot better when these conditions pass more completely. His take on the market bottoming draws some agreement from Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, who examines the market's technicals and says that there is the potential for the market to set a bottom and start a climb from here, though he believes the market will likely be sideways and volatile through the end of the year. Also on the show, Kyle Brown, president and chief investment officer at Trinity Capital, explains how double-digit yields are possible -- and relatively safe and stable -- in a rising-rate environment, and talks about how the economic slowdown is impacting the high-growth, venture-backed, early-stage companies that his business-development company finances, and Chuck talks about final expense insurance and why he keeps being pitched this product by cold callers.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that he believes current inflation-rate statistics are over-stating the problem, caused in part by backward-looking data mixed with the human nature of forward-looking investors. He expects a step-back in inflation measures, though it may be 2023 before that happens. Meanwhile, Ablin says that the market's reaction to Tuesday's Consumer Price Index news was overdone, but he expects the market to trend lower and while he's still investing in equities, he's keeping some money on the sidelines waiting for conditions to improve. And speaking of the sidelines, Ablin talks about how some of that money was moved into gold, which did not function as expected as a hedge against inflation, but which he expects to improve in that role heading into 2023. Also on the show, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management discusses the "Ethereum merge," and how it represents a significant change and upgrade in certain key cryptocurrency technologies, and what other cryptos will have to do in order to keep pace. Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, makes a utilities fund his ETF of the Week and Chuck answers a listener's questions about refinancing and buying homes during a rapidly changing interest rate and housing market.
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says economic risks right now are "skewed to the upside," noting that gas prices could reverse course in the fall; with the market showing Tuesday that it can't handle service prices rising even as oil prices fall, Torres says that the picture could get ugly if gas prices rise and other prices keep going up too, increasing the need for the Federal Reserve to act and the likelihood of a recession next year. Also on the show, author Gary Weiss discusses his latest book, "Retail Gangster: The Inside Real-Life Story of Crazy Eddie,” Greg McBride, Bankrate.com's chief financial analyst, covers bank fees -- one of the few areas where prices are mostly coming down right now -- and Kevin Rendino, portfolio manager/chief executive officer for 180 Degree Capital, discusses "value turnaround investing" in the Market Call.
Carly Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading says that "despite all the scary fundamental stories and headlines we read," the cache of money that investors have now will be put to work in stocks to bonds, creating enough momentum to overcome the emotion and volatility she expects for the market in the next year. She also believes that gold and silver -- which have heretofore been ineffectual hedges for inflation -- could be sleeper sectors poised to wake up, especially if the dollar is -- as she expects -- at or near its high for this cycle. The Book Interview features the return of David Rubenstein to the show; the co-founder of The Carlyle Group has a new book out today. "How to Invest: Masters in the Craft" covers expertise from a wide range of investment gurus, and Rubenstein discusses who he wishes he could have added to the list, why he included cryptocurrency in the book despite having mixed emotions on it, and why he didn't just write a book filled with his own investment insights, and more. And in The Big Interview, Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors, discusses how dividend payouts reached a high as the stock market was reaching its first-half lows and what that means for the market and for income-producing stocks moving forward.
Money Life wraps up its interviews fro FinCon 2022 in Orlando with eight different talks today, finishing with Joe Saul-Sehy of the Stacking Benjamins podcast, who notes that in his years attending the meeting of bloggers, podcasters and content creators he has seen a change in the Financial Independence, Retire Early crowd, where many people enjoy the concepts and are practicing elements of the discipline without going to extremes. Also sitting down with Chuck at FinCon for today's show: options trader Jason Brown of The Brown Report, Anthony Weaver of the About That Wallet podcast, financial educator Rachel Murphy on raising money-confident children, Ashley Patrick of Budgets Made Easy on how inflation has impacted the budget-making process, financial planner Walter Russell, James Gaudino of the10minutetrader.com, and FIRE practitioners Allison Tom and Dylin Redling of Retireby45.com.
Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager for the Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust, says that community banks stand out as a part of the financial sector that is poised to benefit into 2023, as banks will likely see the bulk of continuing rate hikes fall directly to the bottom line. Still, she favors bonds to stocks in the sector. When that interview for The NAVigator is finished, the action moves to FinCon22 in Orlando, where Chuck interviews Robert Farrington of The College Investor, financial educator Stacy Mastrolia -- "Prof Stacy" -- Lee Huffman of We Travel There, Asma Alsalmeh of the Latte Money podcast, and financial coach Kim Hunter-Borst.
Chuck heads to Orlando for FinCon '22, the annual conference of content creators, financial coaches, educators and more, and he samples some of the expertise speaking with Doug Nordman of MilitaryFinancialIntelligence.com about whether veterans have been treated any differently by the market in this downturn, Monica Scudieri of GrabYourSlice.com, Jason Parker of RetirementBudgetCalculator.com, and Emily Guy Birken, who recently started YourOneGoodThing.com. Plus, Tom Lydon goes nuclear with his "ETF of the Week."
Legendary investor and noted philanthropist David Rubenstein of The Carlyle Group says that today's inflation feels like the 1970s, a time that taught investors that it is hard to get inflation out of the system. That has left the economy "treading water," trying to get comfortable with how the situation will play out before it can move forward; in the interim he expects low econnimc growth stopping short of recession, inflation that heads down but not all the way to the Fed's 2 percent, target, with war in Ukraine being a significant economic wildcard. In a wide-ranging interview, Rubenstein talks about whether politics now creates economic headwinds and how the money in politics is furthering the divides, about modern philanthropy and the satisfaction of giving, about happily speeding up in retirement, and more. Gwen Merz, the blogger behind FieryMillennials.com talks about her changing financial journey, one which saw her start as a hardcore member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) crowd, but which now has her more relaxed about her finances and, as a result, happier and more content with her life. Also, Chuck answers a question from the audience about the Gerber Grow-Up Plan, which he made a "Stupid Investment of the Week" when he started that column roughly 20 years ago, which he felt was still putrid when he stopped writing the column a decade later, and which he thinks remains horrid now, but which will keep attracting suckers -- and we don't mean pacifiers -- for as long as families have babies.
Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar Inc., says that recession-proofing your portfolio and making it inflation-resistant requires different actions, but the biggest similarity to both processes is that investors need a plan that they can ride out until conditions improve. She notes that flip-flopping on strategy -- more than following flawed strategies -- leads investors astray. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, talks about how the mortgage market and banking industry are responding to rising interest rates, noting that mortgage refinancing applications have hit their lowest level in more than two decades, and that savings yields have improved in the financial sector's response to the rising-rate, high-inflation environment. And in the Market Call, Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, talks about his firm's quant-active strategy and how he mixes the art and science to deal with a market that has little or no momentum going for it.
Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Private Bank at Bank of America, expects heightened volatility with the market mostly flat until the point when the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is about to end, at which point "markets will swing back toward the green. ... The sooner Jay Powell gets it done, the better for the markets and the better for equities." Looking at the market's technical's, Matt Harris -- chief investment officer for The Hausberg Group -- agrees that volatility "is here to stay" until there is some signal that the market trend is changing. Harris says he will not be surprised if the market crashes through two support levels to retest the June lows, though he expects it will be a decline that occurs slowly and with a lot of volatility/movement in the interim. Also on the show, Josh Duitz of the Abrdn Global Infrastructure Income says that the macro drivers for infrastructure -- globalization, upgrades and repairs, urbanization and increased demand -- coupled with current inflationary pressures have created an environment that is solid for recession-resistant infrastructure stocks. Plus, in the Market Call, John Mowrey, chief investment officer at NFJ Investment Group, discusses global value investing.
Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Private Bank at Bank of America, expects heightened volatility with the market mostly flat until the point when the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is about to end, at which point "markets will swing back toward the green. ... The sooner Jay Powell gets it done, the better for the markets and the better for equities." Looking at the market's technical's, Matt Harris -- chief investment officer for The Hausberg Group -- agrees that volatility "is here to stay" until there is some signal that the market trend is changing. Harris says he will not be surprised if the market crashes through two support levels to retest the June lows, though he expects it will be a decline that occurs slowly and with a lot of volatility/movement in the interim. Also on the show, Josh Duitz of the Abrdn Global Infrastructure Income says that the macro drivers for infrastructure -- globalization, upgrades and repairs, urbanization and increased demand -- coupled with current inflationary pressures have created an environment that is solid for recession-resistant infrastructure stocks. Plus, in the Market Call, John Mowrey, chief investment officer at NFJ Investment Group, discusses global value investing.
Joe Terranova -- widely known on Wall Street as 'Joe T.' -- chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says that the stock market and economy are not going through the kind of short, sharp downturn-recovery pattern investors have grown used to this century, but that time will resolve the issues making it so that investors with the time to ride it out -- and favoring companies with strong fundamentals -- will be rewarded for their patience. For the second week in a row, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, picks a core growth-oriented fund as his ETF of the Week, noting that the times call for a focus on the core investment positions right now. And in the Market Call, James Abate, manager of the Centre American Select Equity and Centre Global Infrastructure Fund -- which sit atop their Morningstar peer groups for year-to-date performance -- says that "Flat is the new up," and discusses how he has stayed ahead of the market.
Alan Gayle, president at Via Nova Investment Management, says that while he is optimistic that Europe and other global markets will see a strong recovery in the future, until that happens -- likely sometime next year -- he prefers to be invested in the United States, despite the struggles of markets here. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Gayle calls the current environment "exceptionally complicated," noting that recessionary forces are held at bay by a strong job market and flush consumers, and he expects those forces to make it so that a downturn or decline won't turn into "a full-blown recession." Also on the show, Ira Rothberg, portfolio manager of the Hennessy Focus Fund, discusses the benefits and challenges of concentrating portfolio decisions in volatile market conditions, Craig Lazzara of S&P Dow Jones Indices discusses Tuesday's release of the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and how it shows that home prices nationally remain way up from last year even as they have started to pull back from recent peaks, and Catherine Collinson discusses the latest research from the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, showing how employers have changed their offerings coming out of the pandemic.
David Jilek, chief investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that the market is likely to continue along a volatile path as it looks for resolution from today's headline risks, and he notes that investors need to mitigate risks and position themselves less to profit now than for the future point when the market comes out of the doldrums and starts its next real climb to a bull market. Jilek noted that the relationship between asset classes -- most notably stocks and bonds which moved alarmingly downward in lockstep at the beginning of the year -- may be changed for the foreseeable future, forcing investors to reconsider their allocations even while they are treading water waiting for better times ahead. In the Talking Technicals segment, Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says investors have to "play everything light," not sitting on the sidelines but not running the full playbook, noting that he thinks investors will be happy a year from now but may have to go through a lot of pain in the interim. Plus, author Greg Steinmetz discusses his new book, "American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Street's Biggest Fortune," and compares his protagonist to some of today's modern day corporate giants.
Moe Ansari, chief investment officer at Compak Asset Management and the long-time host of "Market Wrap with Moe," joins Chuck for the most unusual Market Call interview in the history of Money Life, calling out the culture of stock picks and the way audiences use them. In The Danger Zone segment, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, talks about why pet-food retailer Chewy is a barking dog of a stock, burning through its cash to where bankruptcy could be on the horizon within two years. Plus, Matt Zajechowski discusses a recent survey showing that consumers want to travel but don't like what they are facing as they hit the road, and Chuck answers an audience member's question about "actively passive" investing.
Clyde McGregor, long-time manager of the Oakmark Equity and Income fund, says he is "suspicious" of the market's recent rally after valuations didn't get low enough during the bear market to sound the all-clear on trouble. That is one key issue to investing now, McGregor says, with the bigger concern being that current conditions are different than in the past, most notably with changes in the relationship between interest rates and inflation; while certain elements rhyme with various times in the past, McGregor says the current conditions make it hard to make sense of the market now. Talking technicals, Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst for StockCharts.com, says he thinks the bear-market rally has ended and the market has started a new leg down. Also on the show, Kenneth Burdon, an attorney with Skadden Arps, talks about a recent Delaware law change that's designed to protect investors in closed-end funds and Gabriela Herculano, chief executive officer, iClima Earth talks stocks and ESG investing in the Market Call.
Clyde McGregor, long-time manager of the Oakmark Equity and Income fund, says he is "suspicious" of the market's recent rally after valuations didn't get low enough during the bear market to sound the all-clear on trouble. That is one key issue to investing now, McGregor says, with the bigger concern being that current conditions are different than in the past, most notably with changes in the relationship between interest rates and inflation; while certain elements rhyme with various times in the past, McGregor says the current conditions make it hard to make sense of the market now. Talking technicals, Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst for StockCharts.com, says he thinks the bear-market rally has ended and the market has started a new leg down. Also on the show, Kenneth Burdon, an attorney with Skadden Arps, talks about a recent Delaware law change that's designed to protect investors in closed-end funds and Gabriela Herculano, chief executive officer, iClima Earth talks stocks and ESG investing in the Market Call.
Eddy Vataru, chief investment officer at Osterweis Capital Management, says that investors are thinking wishfully that the Federal Reserve can play with interest rates and inflation to engineer a soft landing for the economy, but he believes any scenario where the Fed is not hiking rates until inflation drops to their target of 2 percent is too rosy. He says the Fed will be as hawkish as possible, trying to set market expectations about rising rates while hoping to engineer a soft landing, but notes that such a smooth outcome is unlikely, and that inflation woes will not end quickly. Also on the show, Anu Ganti, senior director of index investment strategy for S&P Global, discusses the sectors that currently are adding to portfolio diversification -- and playing defense -- and those that are just adding to portfolio volatility, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a classic, core growth-oriented fund his ETF of the Week, and Boston Globe staff writer Rob Weisman discusses his recent trip to the Netherlands to see the way they provide long-term care for their growing elderly population and what America could learn from their actions.
Arjun Jayaraman, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management says that emerging markets investors are trying to decide if the next 10 years will be as flat and troubled as the last decade, and he says that despite prominent, key headline risks, China and emerging markets have plenty of promise now, and should turn out to be better over the next 10 years than they were over the last 10. Jayaraman says if forced to invest in just one emerging market country, his pick would be South Korea, but he thinks that China and others are well-positioned to make progress once the global inflation crisis eases. Daniel Strachman, managing partner at A&C Advisors and the author of "Julian Robertson: A Tiger in the Land of Bulls and Bears," discusses the legendary hedge fund manager and what made him one of the most influential and unique forces ever in money management; Robertson passed away Tuesday at age 90. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com; @tedrossman; @creditcardscom
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says inflation has started to roll over, and once the Federal Reserve pivots away from tough talk about fighting inflation he expects the market to move higher. Kelly says that opportunity is coming in "months or quarters rather than years," meaning that opportunity is around the corner and making this a good time to put money to work. Kelly says he is overweight "the bottom 490" of the Standard & Poor's 500, value stocks and international investing, with an emphasis on Europe. Talking technical analysis, Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report, says he expects a weak market through the mid-term election and while he notes that 2023 is poised to be a better year -- as it is the third year in a presidential election cycle, historically a good one -- he's short the market now, expecting a "better bottom" in December once the market digests the election results. Also on the show, Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, discusses the latest Policy Survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, noting that economists -- who normally struggle to agree on any opinion -- have reached an unusual consensus that the economy will or has entered a recession, but that the slowdown will be mild and short.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that while Robinhood Markets is down about 80 percent from its 52-week high and that it has room to go a lot lower, having burned through $3.5 billion in cash in the last 12 months, with just more than that amount left in cash on the books. Trainer put the company back into The Danger Zone, saying "We're really not sure what is going to prop this zombie stock up much longer ... '' even as "it is priced as if it is going to go to the moon." Also on the show, Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp., discusses the state of the housing market, noting that homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages aren't feeling the pinch of inflation, while homebuyers are being squeezed hard by it and home-sellers are watching markets change rapidly. Fleming thinks mortgage rates have "mostly found their new normal," noting that current levels of between 5 and 6 percent are in line with historic norms even if they are dramatically higher than consumers have been used to for the last decade or more. Chuck answers a listener's question about what to do with some cash now, and portfolio manager Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund makes his debut on the show, talking stocks in the Market Call.
Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull.com, says he that the market has rallied to a point where he is looking to take money off the table on the upside and starting to get short anticipating that areas like technology that have rallied the most off the lows are due for a fall as the current bear market rally starts to falter. Bishop acknowledges that he might be early, but he'd rather be ahead of the rally ending than riding it down. Also on the show, Roxanna Islam, associate director of research at VettaFi, discusses the construction of indexes of closed-end funds and the benefits to using them over individual issues, Milind Mehere, chief executive officer at Yieldstreet, discusses the current state of the U.S. housing market, and Juan Pablo Villamarin, senior investment analyst at Intercontinental Wealth Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Huckstep, chief investment officer at Advyzon Investment Management, says that he believes the economy has enough going for it that there will not be a recession, but he expects interest rates to keep rising which will be bad for the long-term bond market, leaving opportunities for outperformance in shorter-term corporate bonds and levered loans. In the Market Call interview, Huckstep says he also believes value investing is due for its time in the sun now, delivering higher expected returns than the growth style. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a big fund that invests in preferred securities his ETF of the Week, noting that it can diversify a fixed-income portfolio and goose returns now, and in The Big Interview, Christopher Mizer, founder of Vivaris Capital, discusses investing in alternatives and using assets like life settlements and medical receivables as part of structured products that try to protect against declines while still offering a decent upside in all conditions.
Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund -- who will stay in cash when he can't find stocks cheap enough to meet his metrics for good value -- says that the market's decline in early 2022 put a lot more stocks onto his radar as prospective buys, but he says the market remains expensive as a whole. In The Big Interview, Stan Majcher, portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management, says that the energy market -- the one sector of the market that was up during the first half of the year -- remains attractive after its recent run up and despite market pressures created by war in Ukraine and global supply-chain issues. He believes oil remains significantly underpriced, giving strong potential for the sector to keep rolling for the foreseeable future despite the likelihood of a global recession. Also on the show, Sarah Foster discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey showing that consumers who are influenced into purchases by social media have a high -- and increasing -- level of regrets over their spending decisions.
John Blank, chief economist and chief investment strategist for Zacks Investment Research, says that the limited options facing Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell leave the economy in a situation where inflation will be sticky and the market will be more stable but likely more sideways, at least until pricing pressure eases. "The soft landing isn't what's going to happen," Blank says. "The Fed's going to get comfortable with a higher level of prices and rice inflation and just stop because it can't do anything about this." Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that the market's technicals are showing that recent gains are more likely a bear market rally rather than the start of a new bull market, largely because there hasn't been much breadth and support to the gains. Until the rally reflects greater participation -- with fewer companies making new lows -- Jonson says the current move up is likely a temporary one. And Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation and investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute kicks things off talking about how the 60-40 portfolio is alive and well despite an awful start to the year that could hold up and make this one of the worst years ever for that classic balanced approach to investing.
Laura Geritz, founder and portfolio manager at Rondure Global Advisors, says that deglobalization of markets is making it more important than ever that investors pick great stocks at reasonable prices, focusing more on the company-by-company picture than looking at the macro outlook. Another part of that change in mindset is that investors might want to sell into the market's rally, which has been driving up prices of riskier assets, rather than looking at every downturn as a chance to try to buy the next rebound. In a wide-ranging interview, Geritz also makes a case for China's stock market -- which she calls "out-of-sync with the rest of the world" -- being poised for a big recovery while the rest of the globe struggles through inflation problems. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Door Dash in "The Danger Zone" and explains why he believes the stock has a lot further to fall, Barry Metzger of Charles Schwab discusses the firm's latest survey of active traders and how its clients are reacting to shifting market conditions but prolonged inflation, and Chris Mack of Harding Loevner Global Equity fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that the Federal Reserve has been "clueless," making moves that have actually been inflationary, making it more costly for companies to do business and having companies pass those costs on to consumers. That has created an environment with an inverted yield curve and a coming recession. With that said, Doty says the worst is largely over for the bond market, but that the stock market will suffer next year when the current relief rally ends . Doty appears in two segments today, also doing The NAVigator segment, talking about how closed-end funds are an ideal tool for current market conditions and how average investors who understand closed-end funds about 80 percent should take the leap of faith to go the rest of the way. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund talks about value investing.
Sebastien Page, head of global multi-asset/chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, says that while inflation has peaked, it will remain sticky as it returns to more normal levels. The strategic, long-term takeaway is to remain invested, but Page says that the tactical moves investors should be making now involve playing "aggressive defense," underweighting stocks relative to bonds, underweighting Treasury bonds and overweighting cash and bank loans now. Internationally, he favors emerging markets and is light on Europe. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, looks at a new fund from VanEck focused on collateralized loan obligations as a means of diversifying bond portfolios, and Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments talks value investing in the Market Call.
Josef Schuster, chief executive officer at IPOX Schuster -- which builds indexes of initial public offerings around the world -- says that the IPO market has suffered along with the rest of the stock market, but it is poised for a rebound because companies must size up the cost of delaying an offering during a market slowdown versus the heightened costs of borrowing money to fund continuing operations. He says the current IPO market reminds him of conditions from roughly 20 years ago after the bursting of the Internet bubble. Also on the show, Dan Griffith of Huntington Private Bank discusses the private equity markets and how they have performed -- and are likely to do moving forward -- relative to the stock and bond markets, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, talks about the publication's latest survey on investor optimism, and Chuck answers a listener's question about breaking up a family estate.
Markus Schomer, chief economist for PineBridge Investments, says in "The Big Interview" that he believes the U.S. economy can avoid recession, not just through the remainder of this year but into 2023 -- when many experts say recession will become official -- as well. Schomer says that people misunderstand the type of economy we're in and the type of inflation we are living through; he believes the Covid economy is still playing out, and that the supply-demand equation will find balance again, and soon enough to keep things rolling without a major market meltdown. That said, Schomer's optimism stood in contrast to Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, whose take on the market's technical indicators suggests that the ongoing market rebound is nothing more than a bear-market rally, set up to rise high and then reverse sharply, which he thinks will happen in line with the economy slowing down further later this year. Also on the show, Andrew Wellington, co-founder and chief investment officer at Lyrical Asset Management makes his maiden voyage in the Market Call talking stocks.
Joe Keefe, president of Impax Asset Management and the Pax World Funds, says that there are enough positives for the economy right now that he would bet against a hard landing and a protracted recession, although he acknowledges that wildcards like war in Ukraine, trade tensions with China, political issues and more to make him "barely optimistic" that a "soft-ish landing" lies ahead. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights Rivian Automotive as another "zombie stock," pushed to death's door by rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs that he expects can sink the company from here, and Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management, talks ETFs and stocks in the Market Call.
Joe Keefe, president of Impax Asset Management and the Pax World Funds, says that there are enough positives for the economy right now that he would bet against a hard landing and a protracted recession, although he acknowledges that wildcards like war in Ukraine, trade tensions with China, political issues and more to make him "barely optimistic" that a "soft-ish landing" lies ahead. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights Rivian Automotive as another "zombie stock," pushed to death's door by rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs that he expects can sink the company from here, and Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management, talks ETFs and stocks in the Market Call.
Joe Keefe, president of Impax Asset Management and the Pax World Funds, says that there are enough positives for the economy right now that he would bet against a hard landing and a protracted recession, although he acknowledges that wildcards like war in Ukraine, trade tensions with China, political issues and more to make him "barely optimistic" that a "soft-ish landing" lies ahead. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights Rivian Automotive as another "zombie stock," pushed to death's door by rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs that he expects can sink the company from here, and Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management, talks ETFs and stocks in the Market Call.
Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market's recent rebound looks and feels more like the start of a new bull market than it does the standard bear-market rally, though he is not saying that the rebound signals the start of something big. The economy still has a lot to work through, much of which will not come to roost until 2023, Clissold says, and the current strength may be more of a sign that any future decline won't last too long or go excessively deep. Clissold says the U.S. remains the best market in the world, even as expectations have been lowered given economic conditions. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question about hiring a fee-only adviser who charges by the hour, Alicia Munnell of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College discusses new bi-partisan legislation that she says fails to achieve its goals of offering real assistance to the nation's retirees, and John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses funds currently trading at premiums and compares them with similar funds priced at a discount, noting that the differences are about more than pricing.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says thatthe bond market tends to have the most accurate message for investors, noting that the bond market tends to be the dog while the stock market is the tail. Thus, the market is reacting to headlines, but the bond market tends to be more steady in its actions. MacMillan says the bond market currently is signalling a coming recession, with the inverted yield curve signalling it could happen in the next 12 to 18 months. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi.com, talks about international cash-cows as he picks his ETF of the Week, Meredith Stoddard of Fidelity Investments discusses the high physical, emotional and financial costs of being a caregiver to both special-needs children and aging parents, and discusses the need for appropriate planning. And Corie Wagner, senior industry analyst at Savings.com, talks about the rising costs of participating in bachelor and bachelorette parties, and how it's not necessarily inflation that can be blamed for the bigger payouts that friends and family members endure ahead of the wedding these days.
Stanley Teitelbaum, a clinical psychologist who authored a book on the "self-defeating patterns" that individual investors make says that the market's first-half losses has pushed many investors into a bad type of inaction, one where they don't want to make a move until their position gets back to break-even or recaptures a recent high, neither of which is guaranteed. While no one wants to accept losses, Teitelbaum says investors who evaluate securities on their prospects rather than on the price of purchase will be making smarter moves. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question from a fortunate investor who wants to figure out what to do with an oversized cash stash, and Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, says that if the Federal Reserve knew in March what it knows now in terms of economic health, it would have moved more cautiously. Having acted as it did, he thinks the Fed is unlikely to pull off the hoped-for soft landing, but he believes the market will avoid a crash, leaving the economy with a rough landing, one that could see the stock market improve late in the year before it finds more trouble in 2023. Jacobsen notes that he favors domestic and emerging markets for riding out the trouble, feeling that the U.S. is best positioned, that emerging markets minus China and Russia are the best value and developed Europe -- where he is underweight -- is headed for the toughest troubles. Also on the show, Michael Hershfield, chief executive officer at Accrue Savings, discusses the firm's survey of customers using "Buy Now, Pay Later" programs and how one-third of borrowers are using credit cards to cover those "later payments," meaning they can't afford their purchases, even on a payment plan. And in the Market Call, William Smead, manager of the Smead Value Fund, is here talking stocks, noting that he has changed his long-held tune about big oil and energy companies after years of saying they were not buyable.
Sheldon Jacobson, a University of illinois professor who specializes in operations research, discusses shrinkflation -- where companies hold prices steady but reduce packaging sizes as a means of disguising rising costs -- and says that while the trend is prevalent right now, it works poorly in high-inflation markets because consumers are only caught unaware for a moment. While consumers wake up to the trend and focus on unit prices, Jacobson says that shrinkflation has heavy costs on society, increasing packaging costs, waste production and more that are largely ignored. The show today also looks at the latest "mind the Gap" study from Morningstar with Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist for the research firm, who says that consumers continue seeing their personal performance lag behind the results of the funds they own, a sign of chasing performance and having poor timing results. In the Danger Zone segment, investment analyst Kyle Guske focuses on Beyond Meat, another "zombie stock" being pushed to the edge of bankruptcy by rising interest rates and changing economic conditions, and in the Market Call, Chris McMahon, president of Aquinas Wealth, makes his debut on the show and talks stock investing.
Armando Senra, head of Americas ETF and Index business for BlackRock, says that the Federal Reserve's message this week cleared a path for a slower pace of tightening over the remainder of the year, but that investors must embrace volatility and sustained inflation to take advantage of the market environment. Senra says that weathering the current market storm requires investors with a long-term outlook willing to look past current events to see the industries that will be poised for a comeback when economic conditions improve. In The NAVigator segment, portfolio manager Tim Ryan from Nuveen covers the municipal bond market and how it is disconnected with the Treasury market's inverted yield curve to offer some bounce-back potential for the second half of the year. Also on the show, Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com discusses the market's technicals and how it is trying hard to find a level and build a base for the next rally, and in the Market Call, Art Amador of Equbot talks about using artificial intelligence and machine learning as a means of selecting stocks.
Chun Wang, senior analyst and portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the market has priced in a shallow recession -- a near soft landing -- but that the Federal Reserve's record of engineering such a smooth outcome is poor, leaving a strong chance that the central bank tightens too much and dramatically increases the risk and severity of recession. Wang believes that inflation has peaked or nearly peaked, but that it will likely settle in around 5 percent -- a level higher than the Fed wants -- eliminating the obvious moves and leaving much harder choices amid a damaged market in 2023. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about two key factors in today's market -- high quality and low volatility -- in picking his ETF of the Week, Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM returns to help Chuck answer an audience member's question on trying to take advantage of changes in exchange rates around the strengthening dollar, and Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Investors discusses the 'expected value' of buying a Mega Millions ticket for this week's billion-dollar lottery, and why this is one of the rare times when it makes investment sense to take a flyer.
Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that the economy is reaching a turning point where the Federal Reserve must consider slowing interest rate hikes or risk that those increases will kill off economic growth. Coghlan notes that while all central banks are dealing with this now, the US economy will have the largest impact on the potential for a global recession. Also on the show, Dan DeYoung, portfolio manager for Columbia Threadneedle's floating rate and high-yield bond funds discusses how rate hikes are impacting the credit markets and whether higher rates will trigger significantly greater levels of corporate defaults, Matt Schulz discusses a LendingTree study of how consumers are changing back-to-school shopping habits in the face of higher prices, and Chuck talks about a way to get a win out of the upcoming $1 billion MegaMillions jackpot without even buying a ticket.
Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that the economy is reaching a turning point where the Federal Reserve must consider slowing interest rate hikes or risk that those increases will kill off economic growth. Coghlan notes that while all central banks are dealing with this now, the US economy will have the largest impact on the potential for a global recession. Also on the show, Dan DeYoung, portfolio manager for Columbia Threadneedle's floating rate and high-yield bond funds discusses how rate hikes are impacting the credit markets and whether higher rates will trigger significantly greater levels of corporate defaults, Matt Schulz discusses a LendingTree study of how consumers are changing back-to-school shopping habits in the face of higher prices, and Chuck talks about a way to get a win out of the upcoming $1 billion MegaMillions jackpot without even buying a ticket.
Marko Papic, chief strategist at the Clocktower Group, says that while inflation in the range of 3 to 6 percent "will not kill" consumers, it will kill the technology sector because any unprofitable tech companies can't keep borrowing at super low rates to keep the business rolling while they get to profitability. He believes other markets besides the United States are better positioned to support their technology businesses moving forward, which is part of a trend that will see investors want to own China and Japan and Europe during times while inflation remains high. Also on the show, Nathan Furr, author of "The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown," discusses how consumers and savers can lean into the uncertainty of current times and markets to find a path to something better and more interesting, Christian Mitchell of Northwestern Mutual discusses the latest release from the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, which showed how planning significantly improved investor satisfaction and confidence during the current downturn, and Chuck answers a listener's question about I-bonds.
Justin Fitzpatrick, co-founder of Income Lab, says that while investors and retirement savers are starting to freak out about what the market has done to their portfolio values, they should be considering instead whether recent declines have actually impacted their ability to afford the retirement lifestyle they're planning. Funding your lifestyle is what matters in retirement, Fitzpatrick says, while movements in the market are fleeting and may not have much impact on retirement income. Zoe Barry of Zingeroo looks at how investors on the platform have been changing their behaviors in current markets, noting that many younger investors have turned away from the things they know and are comfortable with -- which was pushing them toward meme stocks and popular names -- to broaden out their holdings now. Also on the show, Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America discusses the National Association for Business Economics July 2022 Business Conditions Survey released today, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts SNAP Inc. back in the Danger Zone, saying the big losses it has suffered don't make it immune from losing the rest of its value.
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist for Dreyfus and Mellon, says there is "no safe place for an investor right now except cash" and inflation-protected securities, due to high inflation and the Federal Reserve's inability to this point to get prices under control. As a result, Reinhart says that the economy is either in or entering a shallow recession, with a recovery that could take a while to arrive and that might not be particularly robust when it gets here. Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, talks technical analysis and why investors are so cautious about risky assets now and why they're not likely to act differently to the market until there's a reason for optimism return until inflation is no longer the primary driver for markets; Timothy Reick, chief executive officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- advisor to the Private Shares Fund -- discusses why private equity is an asset class that is not correlated to the broad stock market that individual investors largely overlook in their portfolios. And in the Market Call, Jason Herried, director of equity strategies at Johnson Financial Group, talks about investing in mutual funds and ETFs and balancing long-term portfolio plans with shorter-term market opportunities.
Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says the macro environment is headed lower and weaker and will take the stock market with it, and while he does not expect this to lead to "a horrible outcome," but with the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates above ts comfort level in order to combat inflation, he has little doubt that a recession is coming. Weisman expects current challenges to last into 2023, but he is hopeful that the recession will come quickly to help it pass; he notes that if the recession doesn't happen until later in 2023, "it will be that much more difficult to achieve a soft landing." In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com looks at the long bonds and says they belong on investors' watch lists if trend lines keep moving in improving directions; in the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about growth investing and how the market's slow start to the year has put a lot of good businesses down to where they are compelling long-term values for investors willing to wait out a recovery.
Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton -- head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says that the current stock market and economic situation is not going to play out exactly like some scenario from the past, so that experts are wasting their time harkening back to the 1970s or any other period to draw their forecasts. While many experts will say there's a mild recession in the offing, Dover says that anyone making that prediction needs to consider that there is the potential for something worse. In searching for safe havens, Dover notes that fixed income "now makes more sense than it did at the peak of the market," due to relative price differences caused by the stock and bond markets falling simultaneously through the first half of the year. Also on the show, Jeff Ptak, chief ratings officer at Morningstar, talks about research showing that star ratings -- which were always described as being backward-looking and not good predictors of future results -- actually have benefits in forecasting which funds will be solid future performers, and Chuck answers a listener's question about sequence-of-return risk and whether holding extra cash could help defeat it.
Michele Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com, says she has limited exposure to the stock market right now because technical analysis shows the market as being "stuck in a range," that she thinks is likely to end with a downward move, which could last until inflation problems are resolved. Schneider says the dollar could be peaking right now, which could create a prolonged boost for precious metals, "which we think haven't really woken up right now." Also on the show, Marketwatch columnist and editor Rex Nutting discusses his recent period about why Americans are so grumpy about the economy in a period where a deep dive through the numbers proves that conditions aren't as bad as angry investors and consumers are making them out to be. In the Market Call, Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager at Seven Canyons Advisors, talks about being a growth-stock investor at a time when the market is showing signs of limited growth.
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that the Federal Reserve's signals that it will do whatever it takes to get inflation under control has created conditions in which all markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities and more -- suffer. While Milling-Stanley doesn't think the Fed wants to create a recession, but he says it will take that step if that's what's needed to "knock out any sense that inflationary expectations have become embedded" in the economy. Also on the show, John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says the market is at a crossroads, where it could rally before year-end or where 2022 ends painfully. Petrides says the market is closer to the bottom than it was at the start of the year, but he expects three months of volatility before the market gets to where it can sort things out on inflation and set a path forward. And while the entire market might feel troubled right now, Kyle Guske of New Constructs sidesteps the "Danger Zone" his week by pointing out a stock that has been hit too hard by the market, and which he believes has now become particularly attractive now.
Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that the best way to manage volatility is to "Stop looking at the week-to-week, month-to-month numbers and you focus on five-, 10 and 20-year returns because, really, if you're an investor, that's what you re putting your money away for." Ritholtz says that some of the market's current meltdown is "just mean reversion," with the stock market giving back the above-average returns it had during the bull market run, but the bulk of the problem is rising interest rates, rising costs of capital and credit and more that is crimping consumer spending, business economics and slowing the growth of revenues and profits in Corporate America. Also on the show, David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com, says he could see the stock market heading much lower -- down another 15 percent or more from here -- before rallying, though he sees big-name stocks finding some stability soon and helping to set up a base for a recovery, and John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses business-development companies as they face upcoming second-quarter earnings reports, and how the numbers suggest that they are poised for improved performance, but also to continue a run where they have outperformed closed-end funds and other similar assets during the early part of the year.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says while supply-chain induced inflation will ease up, housing inflation will require much more action on the part of policy-makers and he thinks it will be 2024 or '25 before home inflation stabilizes to something close to the Federal Reserve's targets. Brusuelas says there's "a 45 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months," and he expects the market to move sideways until the Fed looks like it has resolved the inflation problem. In the interim, he says that investors may have to throw out the old saws and platitudes of money management to find industries poised to thrive regardless of market conditions. Also on the show, Tom Lydo of VettaFi.com discusses an ESG-based version of a standard broad-market index fund as the proverbial better mousetrap for investors to consider, and Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates returns to the Market Call for the first time since the start of the pandemic to chat stocks and growth.
Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says he's concerned that Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, is a "fraud" and running out of money. He worries that if Tether crashes "the entire crypto sector goes with it ... and you don't want to invest in a sector where there's a 50-50 chance you'll lose half your money in a matter of days." Tilson talks extensively about what he does trust and is buying in current market conditions, noting that he is maintaining a balance between value stocks trading below their intrinsic value and companies with superior long-term growth characteristics. Also on the show, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses the firm's new survey on mutual fund fees, showing that consumers saved billions of dollars last year by investing in low-cost funds, bringing down the average expense ratio being paid even further, down to roughly 0.4 percent. And in the Market Call, Mike Larson, senior analyst at Weiss Ratings and editor of Weiss's Safe Money Report talks about safe stocks in today's topsy-turvy conditions.
Molly Schwartz, a portfolio manager on the U.S. Broad Market team at Western Asset Management, says a recession can be avoided for the rest of the year if the Federal Reserve "takes a more measured approach" and sticks to it. Even if there is a recession, Schwartz said what matters is how people feel it, and they're not likely to feel much pain while the job market is still growing and workers are getting raises, and more. Also on the show, Chuck answers audience-member questions about what's wrong with an individual investor taking a flyer on riskier stocks and strategies, as well as how to determine if a financial adviser has the 'right credential' to help with retirement planning, and Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management talks growth at a reasonable price in the Market Call.
Market strategist Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that the Federal Reserve is not "going to get rid of inflation with six months of rate hikes," which is a big reason why he is calling for market doldrums that amount to several years of mostly sideways. While not anticipating a big crash, McDonald says that investors should avoid the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes -- which he says have been destroyed of late -- and instead pursue emerging markets and value stocks. Also on the show, David Schiffman, manager of the Aquila High Income Fund (ATPAX), says that the current environment for high-yield bonds is unlike anything he has seen in his long career, noting that there is a lot of push and pull between mixed economic numbers; Schiffman says the junk-bond space "is in much better shape" than before central bankers started raising traits and he expects to see that improvement continue. And in the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer singles out Tesla and Twitter as prime examples of the many stocks with inflated street earnings that could lead to a bad beat when the quarterly numbers are issued over the next few weeks.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that the next step the stock market must take to begin a recovery involves adjusting earnings expectations, noting that several years of record earnings "set the bar too high," and now investors must adjust to lower, more realistic gains. Yes, she notes, valuations have dropped due to the bear market, pricing "a heck of a lot of negativity into the market," but it's now time for 'the E to come under pressure.' Sonders notes that while she thinks the economy is in a recession, the label matters much less than the pain investors have been feeling. Also on the show, John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says the market is nearing "a strategic bottom," with bad news being priced into the market giving the potential for liftoff if the market sees any signs of improvement moving forward. And Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial Services, says that the closed-end fund market showed signs of a "sympathy widening" in mid-June, an event that can be a sign of a market bottom; if that holds -- without any additional excessive selling to reverse the recent trend -- it could mean a bounce-back is in the offing.
Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group says that while economic growth has slowed -- causing what might be considered a "growth recession" -- the economy itself should be able to avoid a full-blown recession, as inflation eases and consumers and investors realize "they kind of overreacted a bit" to current conditions. But there's also a second Big Interview with a guy named Steve on this show, as Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers says that the market must first find stability in low-risk assets like short-term Treasury bonds before investors can accurately size up riskier assets like stocks. He sees selective opportunities for patient investors right now, while waiting for the Federal Reserve "to take the foot off the brakes," which he thinks will help the market set a bottom and move forward to a rebound. Also on the show, for the second consecutive week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com turns to a managed-futures, commodity-based fund as his "ETF of the Week."
Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says that there's more pain ahead for the stock market, but that the end of the year is likely to see a bounce-back that serves as the start of a recovery. Stovall expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit roughly 3,200 -- which would be a 33 percent decline, and an average bear market -- before the turnaround starts around the December holidays. Thus, he says, the market will end up down for the year, but positioned for 2023 to be a big gainer, with the sectors that have suffered the most during the downturn taking the lead during the rebound. "Those things that were beaten up are the ones that offer the greatest opportunity," Stovall says. Also on the show, Chuck talks about robo-call scams where consumers are told there has been an unauthorized purchase to their Amazon.com account -- and plays four different times he got such calls -- and Kevin Miller, chief investment officer at the E-valuator Funds talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Paula Pant, host of the Afford Anything podcast says that high inflation certainly impacts consumers emotions and feelings about money but it hasn't had much impact on their ability to achieve their financial goals, noting that people can still 'afford anything, but not everything,' with some stepped up planning to help deal with higher prices. Also on the show, journalism professor Chris Roush discusses his new book, "The Future of Business Journalism: Why It Matters for Wall Street and Main Street," noting that the business journalism community has changed to where it doesn't serve most investors and consumers particularly well; in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Co. and manager of Abraham Fortress fund makes his debut talking top-down stock-picking.
With the stock market off to its worst first-half start to a year since 1962, Anu Ganti, senior director of index investment strategy at S&P Global, points to her firm's analysis showing that there is "no correlation between first half of the year performance and second half of the year performance." That doesn't mean that a rally is in the offing -- with 10 of 11 sectors and roughly 90 percent of the S&P 500 stocks down this year -- but it means one is possible. That sentiment also was clear in a Talking Technicals interview with Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, who says the downturn this year is getting to the point where people might want to start investing into it, not expecting a rapid rally but recognizing that conditions will be changing and improving as we get toward the end of the year. Also on the show, Ben McCulloch, managing director and general counsel at XA Investments, discusses developments in interval funds and tender-offer funds, and John Sullivan of the Olstein All Cap Value Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says that investors have endured the toughest start to a year for stocks and bonds in decades, but the mounting troubles should culminate in a recession in the second half of the year, with the downturn going deeper before a real recovery occurs. Cronk says that he thinks if the Standard & Poor's 500 were to hit 3,300, valuations will be so compelling that he will be "pounding the table" to get clients to buy. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com makes a managed-futures fund that has posted strong performance amid the market's troubles his ETF of the Week, John Boroff, vice president of youth investing at Fidelity Investments discusses the 2022 results from its "Teens and Money Study," and Chuck answers a listener's question about required minimum distributions for this year.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, says that even though consumers are largely in better position than they were just a few years ago, they're not feeling it now as credit-card debt has been rising and savings levels shrinking in the face of inflation. As a result, the percentage of Americans saying they are uncomfortable financially has skyrocketed, with inflation as the cause because it doesn't just erode savings but it grates on confidence. Also on the show, David Elefant of Elefant Financial talks about the financial issues that the LGBTQIA community is worrying about as it considers the potential for political changes in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision that reversed Roe vs. Wade. While Elefant is worried that financial rules affecting partners and same-sex marriages could change dramatically depending on which laws are passed or repealed, he says the situation is not as dire as scary headlines make it out to be. In the Market Call, Mark Travis of Intrepid Capital Management talks about investing in "basic boring businesses" that make things like "beer, shoes and underwear."
Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy, Fundstrat Global Advisors, says that a healthy consumer and a market that has solid economic footing should lead to "a recession with a small R and not a capital R." Newtons says his models show a market bottoming out in July before turning significantly higher in September, thanks largely to higher interest rates already being baked into the market's expectations. Newton says that the bear market has been in process for months, even if it was only just recognized by the media; the result is that a lot of damage was done before the headlines were made, increasing the likelihood that we are closer to the bottom than the start of trouble. Also on the show, Peter Crane of Crane Data -- publisher of Money Fund Intelligence -- talks about how rising interest rates have made money-market funds more attractive than they have been in over a decade, despite yields in the 1 percent range, Catherine Collinson discusses the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies 2022 Retirement Study released today showing Americans' changing attitudes about the working conditions they want and more, and Marten Carlson, lead reviewer at Mattress Clarity, talks about sleeping for a month on the "cheapest mattress" sold on Amazon in answer to a popular consumer search, and what buyers should know to ensure they get a good deal and a good night's rest.
Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, says it's a buyer's market right now, especially in the small-cap space with stock prices having fallen to where there are more compelling values and real long-term opportunities. At the same time, he says in the Market Call interview that those conditions put a premium on sifting through the many potential buys to hone in on the right ones. Also on the show, Jim Cullen, founder of Schaefer Cullen Capital Management makes "The Case for Long-Term Value Investing'' -- which is the title of his new book, Kyle Guske from New Constructs talks about three zombie stocks with cash-flow issues so bad that their stocks could be headed to $0, and Megan Sanctorum discusses a recent study showing that people would need a surprisingly large win in the lottery before they would call it quits on their jobs.
Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician for TheoTrade and founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that “much of the dirty work is behind us,” with the market now reaching a point “where the values are the most compelling I have seen in 25 years.” Bierman last appeared on Money Life in December of 2021, and was extremely cautious, expecting the market to hit a low of between 3,600 and 3,800 on the Standard & Poor’s 500 within six months. Bierman's model projects the S&P to drop to the 3,300-3,400 range, before building a base for recovery. “If interest rates can peak at some point and if money managers can get beyond staring at charts and start looking at value ... they are going to find that this is where millionaires are made, in these kinds of markets,” Bierman says. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors answers questions from listeners, Catherine Yoshimoto of FTSE Russell discusses the "Russell Reconstitution" that changes the firm's benchmark indexes at the close of business today, and Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel talks growth investing in today's no-growth environment in the Market Call.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the market's drawdown and valuations have performed in line with expectations for a typical recession, and while the third key component of a slowdown -- a big decline in earnings -- hasn't happened yet, he says the market is closer to having fully discounted current events, meaning that "We are closer to the end" of the downturn than the beginning. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a China ETF that has broken above its 50-day moving average -- but is still below longer-term measures -- his pick for ETF of the Week, Danetha Doe of Clever Real Estate discusses a survey looking at how ready homeowners are to accept and work with iBuyers, and Roger Conrad of Conrad’s Utility Investor talks stocks in the Market Call.
Noted value investor Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief investment officer of Investment Management Associates -- who was on Tuesday's show discussing his new book, “Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life” -- returns to the show for a discussion of current market conditions and notes that investors in bull markets see their time horizons lengthen, but that time becomes shorter when investors are facing a downturn and see their assets shrinking. He warns against allowing the current market troubles and the market's short-term gyrations to influence long-term plans. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest CreditCards.com survey showing some surprising trends in how consumers are tipping in the post-pandemic environment, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to help Chuck answer a listener's question about setting up a tax-advantaged savings account for a newborn grandchild, and Jordan Kahn, chief investment officer of the ACM Funds -- manager of the ACM Dynamic Opportunity Fund -- makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.
Ben Hunt, chief investment officer at Second Foundation Partners and the publisher of Epsilon Theory, says investors need to reduce their debts and balance sheet and to "reconnect with the real economy wherever you can" in order to ride out the coming storm that he sees playing out while the stock market digests interest-rate hikes and measures designed to curtail inflation. While Hunt says he is rooting for the scenario where there's a quick recovery after "a nasty recession," he says investors need to prepare for something that's longer-lasting and worse. Also on the show, money-manager Vitaliy Katsenelson discusses his new book “Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life”, and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners discusses ETF investing in the Market Call.
Veteran market observer Ralph Acampora, who helped develop market analytics and who is recognized as a pioneer in technical analysis, says the stock market had been setting up major tops for a while, with the charts implying that the downturn would be roughly 30 percent from top to bottom. With that in mind, Acampora foresees "at least another 10, 12, 15 percent for the Dow and the S&P 500 on the down side," before any real recovery can start. Also on the show, Larry Holzenthaler, investment strategist and analyst for Nuveen, says that senior loans have been one of the few places to avoid the pain in the fixed-income markets, and they feel like a safer haven and a surprisingly good value right now compared to most parts of the credit market, and portfolio manager Gary Bradshaw of the Hodges Funds talks blue-chip stocks and dividend-payers in the Market Call.
Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the tactically managed ATAC Funds says the Federal Reserve should have raised rates even more than it did Wednesday -- when the central bank made its biggest rate hike in almost 30 years -- because market and economic pain is inevitable and could be long-lasting, but there is growth potential once the market passes the troubles and starts a new recovery. This show also features Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi.com, making a brand new fund his ETF of the Week, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discussing the site's latest survey which shows that consumers are looking at rewards cards as a way to deal with inflation, and Rob Lutts, president of Cabot Wealth Management, talks growth investing in the Market Call.
Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, says that investors should look at where they can be best off given current global economic conditions, and says that will bring investors to large-cap domestic value stocks, and she notes that investors may not want to pursue broad diversification because the strategy tends to struggle during times of stress. "It only works when the market is working," she says, "and right now the market isn't working." She expects a recession in short order, though she believes most investors should stick with their plans rather than making moves in response to market conditions and headlines driven by volatility. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor’s Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which showed that economic optimism is at its lowest point in over a decade, and the personal financial outlook has never been lower since the index was created in 2001. Mike Hunstad, global head of equity and quantitative strategies for Northern Trust Asset Management, discusses how proposed regulatory changes to ESG investing will help consumers know what they are buying, and why environmental, social and governance oversight -- particularly combined with factors like investing in "quality" -- should lead to superior returns over time, and author Hal Weitzman discusses his book, "What's the Matter with Delaware: How the First State Has Favored the Rich, Powerful and Criminal – and How it Costs Us All."
Dan Zanger, founder of Chartpattern.com, says "The 1970s are here again," bringing the dangers of persistent inflation back into play, creating long-term financial pain and putting the stock market in jeopardy of falling "50 to 65 percent before this is over." Zanger expects a protracted downturn, with no quick snap-back because the Federal Reserve can't prime the pump by lowering interest rates. "The sooner you get out and stay in cash," he says, "the better off you are going to be." Also on the show, author Eric Balchunas, discusses his recent book "The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions," and Scott Bennett, founder of Invest With Rules -- a service that tracks and reacts to the actions of big-time mutual fund managers -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that a recession is coming, but it's not imminent due to the economy's underlying strengths, including active consumers, corporate balance sheets and the labor market. While waiting for a recession to arrive late next year, Fernandez says investors should be taking advantage of down days in the market to buy up names that are on sale and better balance a portfolio to get through trouble. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com talks about whether the market's slow start to the year has made 2022 a particularly good time to consider converting traditional retirement accounts into Roth IRAs, Sara Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent survey on the emotions and financial stresses that consumers are living with now, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund that gets a good rating from Morningstar into the Danger Zone, noting that the fund's holdings have it headed for trouble.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that consumer demand should support the economy for the remainder of 2022 "without significant dire consequences," but he notes that 2023 is "another whole can of worms" and the Federal Reserve's plans to squash inflation is likely to have side effects that create a recession in 2023. Mullaney talks about the market's fundamental and technical sides, identifies segments and sectors he expects to lead and lag, and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. In the NAVigator segment, Sam Brothwell, director of research at Energy Income Partners, says that the current cycle of under-investment in capital spending has made it harder for energy producers to respond to the current supply-demand imbalance; that has pushed energy prices -- for oil, natural gains, electricity and alternatives -- dramatically higher, where they are likely to stay for awhile. In the Market Call, Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager for the Robinson Funds, discusses investments in premarket SPACs (special-purpose acquisition companies) and closed-end funds, and how they can further diversify a portfolio while increasing its overall risk profile.
Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says that the sharp sell-off that set bonds off to a bad start to the year -- and scared many investors out of the bond space -- has reached a pivot point, so that investors are now looking at "a rare opportunity" to get back in with higher yields and attractive valuations. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a play on the dollar recently hitting a two-decade high against global currencies with his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to pay for/finance a big expense, and Rob Spivey, director of research for Valens Securities, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that despite the gloom being caused by high inflation, war and more, "If you step back, we're not in a terrible place." He notes that if inflation can be controlled and the labor market stays at current levels of full employment, that should lead to a good outcome once tensions ease. Gruenwald says that a big market decline, recession or proverbial day of reckoning is not a foregone conclusion; if the economy can be guided to a path where inflation reduces to Federal Reserve targets -- and growth hits those targets too -- he believes there is a reasonable glide path to better days ahead. Also on the show, money manager and author Adam Seessell discusses the continuing evolution of value investing and his book, "Where the Money Is: Value Investing in a Digital Age," plus Clark Kendall, president and chief executive officer at Kendall Capital discusses stock investing in the Market Call.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that despite the gloom being caused by high inflation, war and more, "If you step back, we're not in a terrible place." He notes that if inflation can be controlled and the labor market stays at current levels of full employment, that should lead to a good outcome once tensions ease. Gruenwald says that a big market decline, recession or proverbial day of reckoning is not a foregone conclusion; if the economy can be guided to a path where inflation reduces to Federal Reserve targets -- and growth hits those targets too -- he believes there is a reasonable glide path to better days ahead. Also on the show, money manager and author Adam Seessell discusses the continuing evolution of value investing and his book, "Where the Money Is: Value Investing in a Digital Age," plus Clark Kendall, president and chief executive officer at Kendall Capital discusses stock investing in the Market Call.
Jeanette Garretty says there is a very real risk of recession in the next nine months, but she sees no reason to expect anything worse than a "garden-variety, U.S. economic recession, with a couple of quarters negative and then a fairly quick rebound in economic activity with the markets leading" that recovery. Garretty notes that there are risks that could exacerbate problems and make a downturn more severe, but she sees inflation pressures easing significantly come early 2023 and recovery to follow unless war, China trade tensions or other conditions have bigger-than-expected impacts. Covering the market's technicals, Scott Brown -- technical market strategist at LPL Financial -- says it appears the market bottom is not in place yet, meaning that he expects a downturn and more capitulation by investors before a significant turnaround, but he does think that investors should look for more stocks to make three-month highs as a sign that things are ready to start recovering rather than drifitngmostly sideways and down. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the positive and negative impacts that Covid-19 had on individual investors in the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, and Bill Davis of the Stance Equity ESG Large Cap Core ETF talks stocks in the Market Call.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says investors need to be cautious about accepting current market risks and keep an eye on their sleep factor "because whatever [investment] thesis you have, it will be tested." Merk notes that he is hesitant facing today's economic conditions because there are still a lot of possible outcomes based on anticipated action from the Federal Reserve and the stock market's response to the news. Also on the show, Charles Rotbut of AAII Journal discusses the group's latest update to its sentiment survey -- Kule Guske, investment analyst for New Constructs, talks about three stocks with misleading earning that could hit shareholders soon, and Michael Sincere is here to discuss the updated versions of his books, "Understanding Stocks" and "How to Profit in the Stock Market."
Laura Martin, equity analyst at Needham & Co., says that streaming technology companies saw their maturation curve speed up during the pandemic, with the fallout being current pricing pressures as consumers wise up to the various pricing models that best meet their needs. She also discusses ad-tech and big-tech stocks and U.S.-China trade tensions in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Also on the show, Max Wasserman, senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital talks about how investors should deal with the current unknowns that have the market on edge right now, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance identifies five "plain vanilla" closed-end funds that are using basic, simple strategies to present good value and opportunities now, and Doug Milnes, head of data analysis at MoneyGeek.com discusses the site's recent survey showing how inflation has already had a significant impact on consumers' sumemr travel plans.
Noted market bear Harry Dent -- who called for a 50 percent market crash when he was last on the show in late May of 2021 -- says that efforts made to prolong the bull market have exacerbated the trouble that the financial world must now slog through "the crash of our lifetimes." He's calling for a recession and a massive market downturn -- saying the Standard & Poor's 500 is due to fall roughly 85 percent from its peak before it's done -- that has only just begun. Dent foresees a long market rebound starting in a few years driven by a millennial spending boom that, based on demographics, he expects to run from 2024 all the way to 2037. Also on the show, Ed Shill, managing partner at the Wealth Enhancement Group talks a balanced approach to stock investing -- but also notes that he believes the current economy can avoid a recession and that he does not foresee a market crash -- in the Market Call, and Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, focuses on industrial metals with his ETF of the Week.
Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest, says that investors are engaging in a proverbial flight to quality by moving from the individual stocks and the security picking that fueled their interest in the market during the rebound from Covid to buying indexes and holding the market despite broader declines happening now. It's not the traditional way that investors seek safety, but Bell says that new investors are taking different paths as they get more involved in the market. Also on the show, technical analyst Michael Sincere says he believes recent rallies have been consistent with bear-market upturns and not with a market bottom, noting that he believes a bear market is in the cards before the market can have any meaningful, long-lasting rebound, and New York Times journalist David Gelles discusses his new book, "The Man Who Broke Capitalism: How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America—and How to Undo His Legacy.”
Andrew Patterson, senior international economist at The Vanguard Group, says that recession "is not our base case right now," because economic growth is coming in at reasonable levels, even if it is taking longer than the Federal Reserve was hoping for to achieve that healthier level of activity. Patterson thinks GDP growth can be back to its long-term trend levels by the end of the year. Kathryn Kaminski, chief research strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, talks about alternative investing and how the market has turned has done a 180-degree turnaround from the pandemic's early days -- when one of the best strategies involved being long in bonds and short on commodities -- to what is working now. Also on the show, Jessica Bryant, analyst for BestColleges.com, discusses a survey showing how many people are stymied in their ability to change/upgrade jobs by financial factors like gaps in health insurance coverage or a cash cushion that's too small to cover rent during the transition; and Chuck answers a listener's question about how many investments is too many.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says the bond market is pricing in 11 quarter-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year, and with three in the books through May, she believes the Fed will step back from its plan and that rates will not move up as much as anticipated. As a result, she is expecting a bond rally that will help fixed-income play its traditional role as a volatility damper in portfolios. Roland says the economy looks to her like it can avoid recession but the stock market is acting like it has arrived, creating opportunities for a bounce-back in equities later this year. Also on the show, Nicholas Marshi of BDCReporter.com talks about how business-development companies have been stronger than the general market thus far in 2022, and how their prospects look bright in a rising-rate environment that has been building without a lot of potential liquidity and credit-quality issues, and Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Investment Partners mixes top-down and bottoms-up approaches talking stocks in the Market Call.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that while the stock market will remain particularly challenging as it waits to see how successful the Federal Reserve will be in helping to curb inflation and keeping the economic pump primed, the bond market has seen yields rise to levels that are attractive right now despite the higher inflation rates. Sanchez expects the market to improve later this year, but to remain choppy throughout. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com and VettaFi.com makes a brand new actively managed fund from Neuberger Berman his "ETF of the Week," economist, Danetha Doe of Clever Real Estate discusses rent inflation and how renters are struggling with incomes that aren't rising at the same pace as housing costs, and Chuck answers listener questions about the volatility of individual stocks, and about how the size of a nestegg influences allocation decisions.
Doug Loeffler, executive vice president of investment management at Sierra Investment Management, says his firm is mostly in cash right now because current conditions look like a "very sustained equity drawdown," and while he expects to see the market rally later in the year, he says this is a time for investors to take what the market is going to give them, rather than "trying to tell the market what to do." He's part of a wide-ranging show that also features Kathy Chu, correspondent for TruthDAO, discussing the market for NFTs -- non-fungible tokens -- and how much of the attention-grabbing activity may actually be faked; Hope Manion from Fidelity Workplace Consulting talking about how Americans radically underestimate the amount of health-care spending they will do in retirement; and author Nick Maggiulli, whose new book "Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth" encourages investors to buy dividend-producing and income-oriented investments in all market conditions, even the rough ones we see now.
In two different interviews today, experts see a market capable of rallying but not necessarily able to hold off a longer-term bearish trend. Market-timer Heeten Doshi, portfolio manager at Doshi Capital Management, says that we're seeing "a day trader's market" -- high on volatility, low on direction and conviction from buyers -- that is poised for "a big bounce" or a bear-market rally because it has been oversold recently. Likewise, Avi Gilburt of ElliottWave Trader sees a rally that could start "at any point now," which could bring some back and forth that gets the market back to record-high territory, though he sees a long-term bear market that will last for years arriving in or after 2024. Also on the show, Anuj Nayar discusses a recent study from Lending Club and PYMNTS showing that more Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck, including a lot of people with good salaries and high credit scores, and John Augustine, chief investment officer at Huntington Private Bank discusses stocks in the Market Call.
Greg McBride, chief analyst for BankRate.com, says that while the site's latest survey shows that few Americans are boosting their stock holdings right now, a majority is still as committed to buying stocks as they were a year ago, with more than half of U.S. investors saying they purposely had made no moves in response to current market volatility. In The Big Interview, Ken McAtamney, who runs the William Blair Global Leaders fund, discusses where there are leading companies -- now often trading at discounts -- amid the current market confusion, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Spotify and Pinterest back into "The Danger Zone" because they still have lots of room to fall despite recent setbacks, and Chuck talks about the four lessons he took away from last week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago.
In a bonus interview from Money Life at Morningstar, Sarah Ketterer -- chief executive officer at Causeway Capital Management -- warns investors against turning paper losses into real ones, sticking with what has been working or what still has the potential to pan out that an investor saw when they made their purchase, though she acknowledges that playing with a portfolio on the margins and making moderate changes can help weather the storm and take advantage of the inevitable rebound. After that, Money Life returns to its normal programming, with Duncan Farley of the Destra International Event Driven Credit Fund discussing market opportunities now being created by today's troubling market conditions and how that has led his fund to positive performance at a time when almost all traditional funds are down. Also, Regina Conway, consumer expert at Slickdeals, discusses consumer regrets from online shopping, and Jenny Xia Spradling, co-chief executive officer, at FreeWill discusses how evolutions in investing -- most notably cryptocurrencies -- are impacting estate planning.
David Snowball, founder of MutualFundObserver.com, says that the current market conditions are challenging investors to make sure they have a handle on what they own and why they own it, because they can't depend on the Federal Reserve to manage a soft landing to current economic challenges. It's one of many highlights as Money Life wraps up its coverage from the Morningstar Investment Conference with more pushback to T. Rowe Price manager David Giroux's Day One comments about the perils and follies of international investing coming from Andrew Foster of the Seafarer Funds and Michael Campagna from Moerus Capital. Also on the show, bond fund manager Janet Rilling from Allspring Global and Fidelity's Sammy Simnegar of Fidelity International Capital Appreciation and Fidelity Magellan. Plus Tom Lydon revisits last week's inflation-driven choice by making a stagflation play his ETF of the Week.
Money Life is back for Day 2 from the Morningstar Investment Conference, and the action heats up with more interviews covering wider grounds. A day after T. Rowe Price star manager David Giroux said there's no reason for investors to invest internationally, Chautauqua Capital's David Lubchenco will come back with a counter-attack, talking about how and why foreign stocks are poised to outperform domestics in the next market cycle. Also on the show, Christine Benz of Morningstar on how current market conditions impact retirement planning; two interviews on dividend investing with Scott Davis of Columbia Threadneedle covering domestic stocks and Sid Bhargava of Matthews Asia on overseas opportunities; Ed Rosenberg of American Century ETFs talks about exchange-traded funds and Jonathan Good of the Baird Funds dives into what's happening with small and mid-cap stocks.
Money Life travels to the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, where David Giroux, portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, kicks things off by saying that most investors have no good reason to buy international stocks, noting that they can instead purchase U.S. multi-nationals, and pointing out that the recent market downturn has made many of those companies significantly more attractive now than they have been in years. The rest of today's lineup from the conference: Will Jacobsen of Toggle.ai -- a fintech investment platform company -- Tony Tursich of Calamos Investments discussing ESG investing, Pete Dietrich of Morningstar Indexes talks about the evolution toward personalized indexing, and Mary Ellen Stanek of the Baird Funds talks about bond investing in a high-inflation, rising-rate market.
Paul Dlugosch, portfolio manager for the Buffalo High-Yield, says that the high-inflation and rising-rate environment has been mostly priced in to the high-yield bond market, which will make the quality and strength of corporate earnings the big determinant of whether the junk-bond market can recover or if it will face troubles that linger to 2023 and beyond. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs fills the Danger Zone with mutual funds that get good star ratings from research firm Morningstar, but which get dangerous ratings from his firm, author Tony Delauney talks about "The No-Regrets Retirement Roadmap," and Corie Colliton, senior industry analyst for Security.org discusses the site's recent survey showing how many people are now investing in cryptocurrency and which surprising demographic groups are joining the trend.
Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research says the market is showing signs that the current bear market could be part of a larger, secular bear market. If indeed those long-term trends are bad -- so that the current downturn is part of a larger downtrend rather than a blip in the long-running bull market -- Pring says the current downturn will stick around for 12 to 18 months. Pring also notes that he believes the Bitcoin bubble has popped, though he's not expecting any kind of rebound until more damage has been done to the price of cryptocurrency. Everett Millman of Gainesville Coins -- mostly talking about precious metals investing -- also weighs in on Bitcoin, as does Big Interview guest Jim Masturzo of Research Affiliates, who discusses how investors can and should use alternatives to make progress amid the market troubles. The show also features Bill Kelly, president of the CAIA Association, discussing how many investors place too much importance on having daily liquidity in the funds, without realizing that having short-term access -- which they typically don't use -- for investments they intend to hold for decades has a real cost.
Tom Lydon, chief executive at ETFTrends.com, says that with inflation entrenched in the economy right now and not looking like it will go away for several years, investors need to take steps to deal with the impact that global-supply chain issues and more are having on their investment holdings. To that end, he made the VanEck Inflation Allocation fund his "ETF of the Week," noting that the real-asset strategy will diversify a portfolio by going beyond just using gold as an inflation hedge, mixing in commodities and other real assets that won't be so in-synch with the market. Also talking about exchange-traded funds, Dodd Kittsley, national director for Davis Advisors, discusses the evolution of active ETFs and whether investors should expect active strategies to outperform the passive in today's hyper-sensitive market. Danetha Doe, economist for Clever Real Estate, talks about a survey of college students showing that they are wildly inaccurate in the earnings they project for themselves once they graduate and join the real world, and Chuck answers questions from the audience spurred by the market's downturn in 2022.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist for Invesco says that there is some good news in the market -- with signs that the bond market is expecting inflation to slow and ease and other indicators showing promise -- but everyone should be watching the impact of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to see how long the current doldrums drag on. Levitt noted that less than 25 percent of companies on the New York Stock Exchange are trading above their 200-day moving average, and that the market typically bottoms out when that number reaches 15 percent, but he noted that commodity prices, interest rates and inflation all must moderate before the market gets to a more solid footing. Also on the show, Professor Pelin Pekgun from the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina discusses inflation and how supply chain issues typically get resolved so that an economy can break the cycle of rising prices and shortages to return to normal, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the record levels of household debt -- but a surprising drop in credit-card debt -- reported Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Andy Behar of As You Sow discusses the group's research showing that many social investment funds aren't practicing what their name says they should preach, holding stocks that don't belong in a fund built around current governance standards.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance;, says that the current economic situation is different from the Covid meltdown or other recent difficult times because "This time, the Fed doesn't have your back." As a result, investors should not expect a V-bottom to the downturn and a quick bounceback, and investors should be making marginal changes to their portfolios, playing defense and not relying on a rising tide to raise up indexes in the short- and intermediate term. In the Talking Technicals segment, Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts, says that the market needs to see capitulation before it can start to rebuild, and the recent heavy action has not yet represented that kind of market emotion. Also on the show, portfolio manager Lance Cannon of Hood River Capital Management talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck talks crypto and more in the Weird Financial News.
John Bonnanzio, editor at Fidelity Monitor & Insight, says investors need to be as cautious as possible right now, focusing in on their investment time horizon so that they can ride out the potential downturns on the table in the short- and intermediate-term as the market sorts out the high-inflationary environment. Bonnanzio notes that investors with long time frames may want to consider how some of Fidelity's biggest-name large-cap funds are already in bear market territory, which actually has them priced relatively cheap and poised for a profitable bounce-back once the market sorts current conditions out. Also ont he show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts two stocks in the same industry - Equinix and Digital Realty Trust -- into the Danger Zone, and Larry Swedroe of Buckingham Wealth Partners discusses his latest book, "Your Essential Guide to Sustainable Investing."
Jim Welsh, macro strategist at Smart Portfolios and the author of MacroTides, says he still believes the market can rally during the last half of the year, but he says investors have to respect the current downtrend, which is likely to get worse before any bounceback. Welsh notes that consumer savings should help absorb inflation, business spending is up, demand is higher and he believes the economy has enough internal strength to avoid recession so long as the Federal Reserve doesn't have to raise rates above 2.5 percent. If rates rise higher, Welsh says it could lead to a recession in 2023. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses how to find the right issues to deal with the rising-rate, high-inflation conditions, Chuck discusses some things that he has never head said by experts during the first 10 years of the show, and Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group discusses funds, ETFs and the "upgrading" investment style in the Market Call.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management says that "the path forward is different than the path we have been on," and that investors must now keep inflation and interest rates "top of mind" as they rethink what is possible and reasonable for the market. He noted that Regions' forecast of returns of 1.5 to 2 percent annualized gains for bonds and roughly 6 percent average gains for stocks over the next decade, which along with heightened volatility will be hard for many investors to stomach. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a long-running, big-name dividend-paying fund his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about investing in I-bonds, and advisor Oliver Pursche of Wealthspire talks about stocks and investing defensively in the Market Call.
Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says that he is seeing signs of a bear market -- which he believes we are in -- in the form of heightened volatility where rallies are in full force one minute and wiped out the next. McMillan says that while the market is showing signs of being oversold, it's not time to act on that yet because only one of the eight primary indicators he tracks is bullish right now, "and it will take a while for them to come around." Also on the show, Bob Powell, the editor of Retirement Daily, talks about how poorly prepared many retirement savers are for dealing with long-term heightened inflation, noting that 'You won't be able to invest your way out of this,' Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey on how people are altering summer travel plans based on the economy, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks about growth investing in the Market Call.
Charles Rotblut, editor of the AAII Journal -- Money Life's all-time leader in guest appearances, but also the person responsible for maintaining the American Association of Individual Investors' sentiment survey -- says that investor optimism over the last three weeks has reached some of the lowest levels seen since the group started its survey in 1987. Rotblut says that when optimism is unusually low, "you tend to see outperformance in the Standard & Poor's 500 over the following six months and 12 months. ... When people are too negative, it's usually a good time to get greedy." But in the Market Call, Stephen McKee of the No-Load Mutual Fund Selection & Timing newsletter says that he still sees too much bullish sentiment and that he doesn't think the market will turn around until investors get negative; until that happens -- and for many months now -- McKee and his newsletter have been bearish. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for BankRate.com discusses the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate hike and how higher interest rates and rising inflation will affect savers and borrowers in the years ahead.
On the 10th anniversary show for Money Life, legendary bond fund manager Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., says that the Federal Reserve is "trapped," and will not be able to fully control inflation and that investors will be living with higher inflation and interest rates "for likely the next 10 years." Fuss compares today's bond market conditions to the Korean War era, and says investors need to adjust their expectations and get used to living with it. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits some of the most successful Danger Zone selections that -- despite being hammered since they were labeled as dangerous -- remain poised for more damage, and money manager Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn, who appeared in the first-ever Money Life Market Call -- is back talking stocks in that segment again today.
Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, says that the market's current washout is setting up "a very healthy rally into year-end" that could see the Standard & Poor's 500 finish the year above 4,700, a particularly healthy move because the current pain and decline has longer to go before the turnaround begins. Johnson is currently overweight in energy, basic materials and large-cap technology stocks, and underweight in health care, communications/media stocks and consumer cyclicals. That interview contrasts with Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, who suggested that investors hold tight to fundamentals and the teachings of Warren Buffett, understanding that while there may be a rally in the market, there is a recession on the horizon, likely arriving after the next year. Also on the show, Nathan Shetty, head of multi-asset for Nuveen, discusses diversifying to generate consistent gains and safety in a low-return environment, and author Scott Nations discusses his new book, "The Anxious Investor; Mastering the Mental Game of Investing"
Frank Holmes, chief executive/chief investment officer for U.S. Global Investors, says current economic and socio-political conditions have the market in the middle of a downturn that could grow into a full-blown recession accompanied by a bear market, but he expects central bankers and politicians to print as much money as is necessary to keep economic engines running and to minimize the setbacks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes the Invesco Water Resources fund -- a long-running fund that is a different kind of play on the natural resources space -- his ETF of the Week and Craig Hodges, chief investment officer for the Hodges Funds, talks bottoms-up investing in stocks in the Market Call.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that while gold has not done well in its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last year as higher prices have gripped the country, it would be too early to give up on precious metals filling that role, especially as inflation stays in place for longer than was initially expected. Winmill also notes that if the economy heads into a recession, the permanence of gold will elevate it over cryptocurrencies and other hot assets that have been proposed as alternatives to precious metals in troubled times. Also on the show, Rob Williams of the Schwab Center for Financial Research, discusses a recent survey showing how younger generations are re-imagining retirement, resulting in better preparedness for their golden years, even as those times will look different than the standard retirements of the past. In the Market Call, Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management talks about crunching the numbers on stocks, especially during volatile times like what investors are facing now.
Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the stock market has been seeing its various drivers falter since last year, starting with uptrends turning to downtrends in developed markets like Europe, then in emerging markets, then small- and mid-cap stocks, and now domestic large-cap stocks. With less than half of the market sectors showing positive trends now, Samana says "This is not a time to be playing offense, this is a much better time to be playing defense." In The Big Interview, Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, talks about inflation and how he believes the drivers for it have peaked, which should mean it begins easing significantly, even if that doesn't show up in the measures for a while. And in the Market Call, George Young of the Villere Funds talks about long-term investment strategies with small-company stocks.
Economists -- as judged by the latest Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics -- do not see inflationary pressures subsiding immediately but they believe the damaging impact to the market of high inflation, rising interest rates and global supply-chain issues will stop short of creating a recession in the United States. Economist Lester Jones discusses the survey results, and the prospects for the domestic economy while inflation and war persist. Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that the China market is tenuous right now -- with the country dealing with a continuing Covid crisis and also trying to be neutral in the Ukraine War -- but also poised to be a good opportunity for active investors now. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs gives us new reasons to dislike Gamestop and Carvana, as he puts them back into the Danger Zone, and Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager for Stack Financial Management, says that inflationary pressures that haven't been seen in over 40 years and the tightest labor market in history mean that what has worked in recent years will not be panning out so well going forward. That means "This is not your father's market," Jonson says, and investors need to go old school and get more defensive, expecting to see some pain before they the market gets positioned for a long-term recovery. Jonson also notes that the average constituent of the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 42 percent from 52-week highs, so while index returns have yet to show substantial drawdowns, a lot of investors have already suffered serious pain, which is likely to get worse from here unless they make defensive moves. Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence and the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about how closed-end funds fared during the rugged first quarter of the year, Derek Izuel of Shelton Capital Management covers international markets and how current events will have long-term impacts over how foreign investments are used and perceived, and Medicare expert Diane Omdahl of Sixty-Five Inc. discusses the importance of shopping around and knowing the rules before buying Medicare supplement insurance coverage.
Before even getting to today's interviews, Chuck discusses the fallout from Netflix losing one-third of its value on Wednesday, and how a big popular security being challenged this way becomes the perfect opportunity for individuals to see if their portfolio has passed a key stress test. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a new fund highlighting the consumer market in India as his ETF of the Week, David Rainey of the Hennessy Focus Fund discusses the market and the challenges of concentrating a portfolio during times with high inflation and rising interest rates, and Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Chris Retzler, portfolio manager for the Needham Small Cap Growth Fund, says that current economic conditions impacting growth stocks have weighed particularly heavily on smaller companies, and he expects that pain to continue, worsening about a year out as the economy struggles to digest higher inflation and heightened interest rates. In the Market Call interview, Retzler notes that he expects that tough period to set up some strong buying opportunities that will pay off for long-term investors down the line. In the Big Interview, Rahul Sen Sharma, managing partner at Indxx -- which develops new indices for use measuring the investment world in different ways -- talks about how indexing is evolving, how it's possible to accurately capture something as complex as the Metaverse in a benchmark, and how individual indexes and other measures need to avoid falling into the trap of using a good methodology -- indexing -- but applying it poorly to the investment world. Also, Chuck answers a listener's question about whether debt payoff strategies change in a high-inflation, rising-rate environment.
Chuck plays a recent cold-call conversation in which a representative from "Card Services" suggests that a superior credit history has earned the chance for a credit card that charges zero interest ever, and that offers 20 percent cash back for every purchase. The card may be too good to be true -- though Chuck got multiple offers for it -- but the conversation must be heard to be believed. And it's calls like that -- and other personal financial issues -- that leave many seniors vulnerable to fraud, scams and also family money pressures; in today's Book Interview, Naomi Karp, co-author, “Thinking Ahead Roadmap: A Guide to Keeping Your Money Safe as You Age” discusses the importance of selecting a "financial advocate" and the role they can play as you age. Also on the show, Matt Zajechowski discusses a HomeAdvisor.com survey into how many people would be willing to move into a tiny home, especially if it help them beat the rising cost of housing, plus we revisit a recent conversation with Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders Ltd.
Buck Klintworth, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says there "are very few glimmers of hope out there" in the stock market right now, noting that the market currently resembles 2007 when it was reaching highs ahead of the major downturn of 2008. With high inflation and rising interest rates, Klintworth says that "We are sort of playing 'Fear Factor, Stock Market edition,' and when that happens, nothing good happens for people." Klintworth acknowledges that the market might be able to avoid big trouble, but says investors need to recognize that the market currently may be building a top. In the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer of New Constructs says that the recent actions of Elon Musk are not only going to impact the way investors see Tesla, but all meme stocks, and he expects that Musk's dalliance with Twitter will wind up being a catalyst for investors to take a bigger look at fundamentals, creating a major problem for Tesla and other hot stocks. Also on the show, Bob Long of Conversus discusses investments in private equity and the importance of being committed to riding and overcoming "the J-curve" in order to succeed in the space, and Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors discusses the importance of companies generating cash as he talks about stocks in the Market Call.
Karl Mills, president of Jurika, Mills & Keifer, says that the high-inflation, rising-rate global economy is challenging investors to buy assets "that float and swim," namely stocks and real estate, because bonds -- the traditional safe asset -- sink in these conditions, with "an almost-guaranteed loss of purchasing power." Mills thinks the market has the potential to rise from now to the end of the year, but says that any rally will be more sector- and industry-specific rather than being an across-the-board higher tide for all. Meanwhile, Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that consumers are slowing down and cutting back spending before the Federal Reserve has done much tightening, which he considers a potential warning sign for how the economy could struggle as the central bank grapples with trying to create a proverbial soft landing. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to Brazil with his ETF of the Week, and Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses how consumers are already changing/reducing their summer spending plans.
John Waggoner, financial editor at AARP.org, says that the current wave of inflation -- most recently pegged on Tuesday by the government at 8.5 percent -- is not the same as what older investors remember from the late 1970s and early 1980s, but he cautions those older investors to avoid knee-jerk reactions to higher prices, noting that diversification -- buying undervalued securities, investing in securities delivering long-term income streams, and even holding cash to avoid having to sell anything into current conditions -- remains the time-tested way to avoid getting crunched by volatile markets and troubled economies. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which remained in negative territory for the eighth straight month despite a massive, 11 percent uptick in positive sentiment, and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at TFC Financial Management, talks about mutual funds and ETFs -- and how individuals might be tinkering with portfolios now -- in the Market Call.
Leading retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, chief research officer at Telsey Advisory Group, says that the retail industry is poised to overcome high inflation, rising interest rates, supply-chain issues stretched by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and more thanks to culture and structural changes, the closing of struggling stores and lagging shopping centers and a resilient, healthy consumer. Telsey acknowledges how retail struggled during the first quarter of the year, but noted that she has high hopes for the remainder of the year, especially as big events and celebrations return to help drive additional shopping. Talking technical analysis, Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma.com, says that current neutral sentiment among traders is a warning sign that a market decline could be in the offing, particularly if the Standard & Poor's 500 remains below the 4,500 level, allowing volatility to build up, potentially generating downward pressure. In the Book Interview, Mary Childs -- co-host of Planet Money on National Public Radio -- discusses her recent book "The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All," all about legendary fund manager Bill Gross.
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro for Fidelity Investments, says that investors are betting that the current market can be a replay of 1994 -- when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates to offset inflation and shooting for a proverbial soft landing -- which could mean a sideways path or a holding pattern while the central bank is tightening. Timmer says that while earnings are growing, the market can avoid a more significant downturn. David Trainer of New Constructs explores companies where "street earnings are too high," which means they are in danger of an earnings miss; his list of companies in this condition includes Amazon.com and financial giants Invesco and Wells Fargo. Also on the show, author Keisha Blair discusses "Holistic Wealth" and how the approach can help individuals overcome the disruption of recent events to reach their financial goals, and Chuck answers a listener's question about changing financial advisers.
Jeff Bishop of RagingBull.com says that gold is setting up on a technical basis for a strong rally over the next year. While gold is often used as a hedge against inflation -- and it has struggled in that role as inflation across the country has reached its highest levels in 40 years -- Bishop says it is currently poised to go "well above $2,000" in the next year. Bishop, who is not typically a gold bull, says that rising inflation and interest rates and other fundamental issues are combining with strong technicals to make the precious metal as one of the better long-term trades investors can make now. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Bavaria of "Inside the Income Factory" on SeekingAlpha.com, discusses how investors seeking cash-flow without much regard for total return have been weathering the market's storms of the first quarter, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster discusses the site's "True Cost of Insurance" report, and Ivana Delevska of SPEAR Invest talks about investing in industrial companies and industrial technology stocks in the Market Call.
Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors, says she expects the stock market to go through a "very bad period" ahead, the result of a recession that she thinks is brewing right now, a hunch that is supported by an inverted yield curve, high inflation and other conditions. As a result, she says investors don't want to hold long-maturity bonds, and need to be careful about dividend-focused funds and broad market exposure. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com says that the JETS ETF has the potential to give investors a nice takeoff and a soft landing, Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses what taxpayers are planning to do with any refunds they receive this year, and retirement expert Anne Lester -- the former head of retirement solutions for JPMorgan Asset Management -- talks about how long-term investors might adjust portfolios and strategies now, without letting current events completely take over and messing things up.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income, says that a miserable first quarter and the threat of more interest-rate hikes have bond investors feeling miserable, but he believes that the worst is over for bonds, noting that the rate hikes have already made it that investors can now generate at least a small amount of income from short-term bonds, something that wasn't possible at the start of the year. Doty says that he doesn't think the Federal Reserve will be able to take rates as far as central bankers seem to want to go, due to some economic struggles; that moderation, in turn, means less damage to the bond market, giving bond investors a reason for optimism even though headlines make things seem bleak. Also on the show, Roger Young from T. Rowe Price discusses the firm's 14th annual "Parents, Kids & Money" survey, which showed that the emergency of cryptocurrency has created excitement in families and the opportunity for more meaningful talks about money and investing, and Andy Braun of the Pax Large Cap fund discusses ESG investing and stocks in the Market Call.
Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, says that 'the red flags are in the air that the market is ready to roll over,' and while he sees the current rally continuing for another month or two, any upward moves right now are setting up for a bear market, a downward move of more than 25 percent. "Somebody putting money into almost anything right now is carrying a ton of risk," Vermeulen says. "Everything is very overpriced." Also on the show, Chuck looks back at the completion of the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Monday and uses it as a metaphor for building a portfolio, and we revisit a recent discussion with Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research.
David Trainer, president at investment-research firm New Constructs, says that 80 percent of the Standard & Poor's 500 companies are overstating earnings, and he highlighted Illumina as topping the list, saying the company is overvalued as a result. The company is currently trading for about $350, but Trainer put it in "The Danger Zone" because it has an economic book value of "negative two dollars." Also on the show, Ron Ruffinott of Toluna discusses their recent survey showing that one-third of Americans feel markedly worse off financially now compared to a year ago, economist/author Jonathan Haskel discusses his new book -- "Restarting the Future: How to Fix the Intangible Economy," and Brad Lamensdorf of Active Alts and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF returns to talk stocks in the Market Call.
Brad Lamensdorf, editor of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and chief executive officer of Active Alts, says that investors can expect a lot of 'sub-surface volatility throughout the entire year," but all of that chop amounts to the market getting past the bigger-than-expected gains of 2020 and 2021. Lamensdorf says that most market sentiment gauges and indicators are negative but that is creating some pockets of opportunity, though they are hard to spot amid bear-market bounces. Also on the show, Edward Yardeni of Yardeni Research returns for a second day, this time to talk about his latest book, "In Praise of Profits," Michael Bell of Primark Capital discusses how private-equity investments can bring something to a portfolio that most investors are missing, and Simon Lack of SL Advisors -- the firm behind the American Energy Independence Index -- returns to talk about energy stocks in the Market Call.
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the current wage-price-rent spiral is likely to spur businesses to spend money to increase the productivity of workers. If that innovation and change occurs -- and Yardeni believes there will be a 'productivity boom' -- a decade that started out pretty badly could instead turn into the Roaring 2020s. Yardeni says that solid economic underpinning will make it that inflation and interest rate hikes will not turn into a repeat of the 1970s, avoiding deep, long recessions or worse even while conditions feel bad. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to emerging markets and internet/e-commerce for his ETF of the Week, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds, talks technology stocks in the Market Call.
There is nothing about inflation hitting its highest levels in 40 years that makes anyone feel good, but Chuck looks beyond the big number to talk about the actual impact that higher prices are having on people, and concludes by noting that the costs and the choices inflation is creating are uncomfortable but manageable. As a result, while he understands the grumbles -- saying he complains himself every time he fills up his gas tank -- his bigger message remains that 'Higher inflation is not going to break you.' Also on the show, Marketwatch columnist Brett Arends discusses the fallout from Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy calling Warren Buffett 'washed up,' a call that looks particularly foolish given the time since when Warren Buffett's personal fortune roughly doubled to over $100 billion in short order. Mark Hamirck of Bankrate.com discusses his site's latest survey of workers and their outlook on jobs and working conditions, and Jillian DelSignore of FLX Networks discusses the evolution of the ETF business and the trend of traditional mutual funds converting to the exchange-traded fund structure.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the cryptocurrency market's fear over regulation is misplaced, and while threats of regulation send the market into a tizzy, he thinks that worry is misplaced and directed toward heavy-handed regulatory efforts. He thinks the potential for regulation will turn from a headwind to a tailwind, because decentralized finance goes mainstream through regulatory guidance that makes consumers more comfortable with digital assets. In a wide-ranging interview, Hougan also talks about how cryptocurrencies have performed against inflation, in the war in Ukraine and more, and discusses how non-fungible tokens are the latest verse in an age-old song of how societies develop arts and cultures during times of financial success. Also on the show, Shelly-Ann Eweka, senior director for advice strategy for TIAA, talks about how gig workers and others with non-traditional jobs can still participate in traditional retirement-savings programs, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds discusses investing with an eye on climate change in the Market Call.
David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, says that HubSpot is worth only about 15 percent of what its stock currently is trading for, and he's putting it in 'The Danger Zone' because it faces stiff competition in an industry that is being commoditized, leaving it littel room to grow profitably, let alone at the incredibly high valuation the market has given the stock for now. We've also got Mike Bailey of FBB Capital partners, back to discuss his new book 'Stop. Think. Invest: A Behavioral Finance Framework for Optimizing Investment Portfolios, plus Ken Mahonet of Mahoney Asset Management talks stocks and ETFs in the Market Call, and Chuck shares his thoughts and appreciation for Ned Johnson, the man who built Fidelity Investments from a family business to the world's largest and most influential financial-services firms.
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that longer-term inflation will be what determines whether the economy can continue to avoid a recession and the market can sidestep a protracted downturn. With that in mind, Kalish expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates repeatedly until it can be confident that inflation has peaked, is passing through temporary troubles and gets to long-term target levels at 2.1 percent. Kalish, says, though, that he believes that goal will take longer than the Fed expects to be accomplished, meaning that economic doldrums will also go on for longer than forecast. In The NAVigator segment, Mitchel Penn of Oppenheimer and Co., talks about the challenges of analyzing and evaluating business-development companies, highlighting why one particular BDC -- Runway Growth Finance Corp. -- appears ready to outperform the market and the competition. And in the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research for FBB Capital Partners, talks about taking a "beat and raise" approach to managing a portfolio of stocks during trying market conditions.
Hank Smith, head of investment strategy for The Haverford Trust Co., says that rising volatility and heightened uncertainty shouldn't push investors out of the market, because times like these prove the value of being fully invested in all conditions, and having money in the market whenever a bottom is reached. In the Market Call, Smith talks about how owning great companies with long histories of dividend payments creates the confidence to ride out tough times en route to long-term success. In the 'ETF of the Week' segment, Tom Lydon, chief executive at ETFTrends.com, discusses one of the biggest, most-popular ETFs -- a Standard and Poor's 500 Index fund from Vanguard -- noting that the pick isn't just trending but it's an appropriate allocation for investors with too much cash on the sidelines. Also on the show, Kirsten Grind, co-author of 'Happy At Any Cost: The Revolutionary Vision and Fatal Quest of Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh,' and Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com discussing the site's 2022 Gas Cards Survey and whether using a branded card can really help you out at the pump.
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden and Rygel, says that he expects inflation to settle down and for the economy to reach full-employment levels by the end of the year, creating earnings and economic growth that sidesteps any potential recession. Cleveland expects the market to recover its early-year losses and show modest profits by the end of the year. Also on the show, Shelly-Ann Eweka of TIAA discusses survey results showing that women's finances in retirement make them much more financially vulnerable than men are, and Samuel Adams, chief executive officer of Vert Asset Management -- which runs the Vert Global Sustainable Real Estate Fund -- talks environmental, social and governance (ESG) in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global market strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that earnings will continue to power the stock market which he expects to overcome current concerns about high inflation and rising interest rates to finish the year with the kind of high single-digit gains he was expecting several months ago when he posted his annual outlook. Kleintop says he expects inflation to calm quickly enough that investors might forego the traditional hedges in favor of international investments, which he says tend to do well in inflationary times and which will outperform the standard inflation-driven portfolio moves. Also on the show, Sham Ganglani discusses Fidelity Investments' latest State of Retirement Planning study, noting the conditions of the typical retirement saver coming out of the pandemic, and Eric Boughton of Matisse Capital talks about closed-end fund investing in the Market Call.
Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says that stock market and economic conditions have her lightening up on technology stocks but adding to commodities, going up to her traditional limits on commodities because that's where managers can deliver a better return in markets currently affected by the war in Ukraine and more. Spath notes that she is moving away from bonds, most notably floating-rate bonds -- despite a rising-rate environment that has many experts expecting them to thrive -- high-yield corporates and even Treasury bonds. Spath says she still believes the stock market will book gains for 2022, with most of the positive action coming in the second half of the year. Also on the show, Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, discusses the latest Economic Policy Survey out today from the National Association for Business Economics, Kyle Guske of New Constructs says a classic mutual fund with one of the most veteran managers ever -- more than 50 years at the helm -- is headed for trouble, and Allen Bond, the head of research at Jensen Investment Management talks in the Market Call about buying high-quality businesses at reasonable prices.
Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that it has been a market year of extremes, a polarizing year where the stock and bond markets have been oversold, gold has been overbought and investors and their emotions have been whipsawed by the moves. Yet he sees many of the factors creating those conditions as mitigating and calming down now, and as those factors stabilize he notes that things will get 'less bad,' which should be enough to keep the market on solid footing and with slow gains moving forward. Craig Callahan, chief executive at ICON Advisers returns to the show, following on Thursday's discussion about his book on 'unloved' bull markets, noting that he sees stocks on average right now to be about 9 percent below the firm's fair value estimate right now. Further, Callahan says that 2022 may be a year where there are positive outcomes despite no catalyst for a market rally, because 'if you priced in horrible and it turns out just being bad, you could have a rally.' Plus, Seth Brufsky of the Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund talks about how current events are affecting the capital markets, and Chuck talks about how important it is for investors to lean into all types of risk now.
Craig Callahan, founder of ICON Advisers and author of a new book, 'Unloved Bull Markets,' says that investors who have relied heavily on price-earnings ratios to evaluate stocks have been fooled. He says that p/e ratios are 'totally worthless in predicting future returns, and notes that stocks were never overvalued in the long bull market run after the 2008 financial crisis, nor are they overvalued now, in a bull market that has only been stalled by current events. He adds that investors who focus on macro concerns like war, inflation and interest rates are missing the ground level action where individual companies look good. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com heads to the oil patch with an energy pick impacted by global events for his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck gives his quick take on how to read the Federal Reserve's moves and statements from Wednesday, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Power, strategist at NinetyOne, says that investors might be tempted to run away from the market, but there is no real place to hide with high inflation and low yields making it that the traditional safe-havens are losing purchasing power. Power says that there is a possibility of recession arriving late last year or early in 2024, which makes diversification across asset types and around the globe prudent. Also on the show, Lou Harvey, president at DALBAR Inc., discusses the firm's research on asset-allocation models and about their new Prudent Asset Allocation method, which has adherents lock down the core of their nestegg but be more aggressive with their remaining holdings to produce bigger-but-safer results. Plus Carol Anderson of MQ Research and Education discusses how well financial advisers are building and retaining trust at a time when meetings are infrequent, and Chuck reads a special letter he received from an audince member who is about to have his pursuit of life overtake his pursuit of money.
Meb Faber, co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that investors aren't just dealing with headline issues of war, inflation and rising interest rates, but he notes that the market has turned to what he called an 'expensive downtrend,' which is historically a time when returns tend to be zero or negative. Faber says he worries that this could be a moment where investors could blink and turn around to say 'Wow, when did all of these stocks go down 75 percent.' He says that the right way for investor to get through these kinds of conditions is through proper diversification, including significant international exposure even though current events make it hard emotionally to invest overseas. In the Talking Technicals segment, Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors says that conservative investors should be waiting for the market to see several strong consecutive days -- or a 1,000-point plus day -- before they consider the recent downturn as potentially turning into a buying opportunity. And in the Market Call, Robert Cantwell of Upholdings and the Compound Kings ETF talks about the importance of finding the right kind of long-term growth, and discusses why that currently has him a bit sour on Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, but sweet on Amazon.com and Meta Platforms (Facebook), which he says are trading at 'a multiple that we have not seen in their publicly traded histories.'
George Kinder, president of The Kinder Institute of Life Planning -- generally recognized as the biggest moving force behind the life-planning approach to personal financial management -- says that investors need to look at where they can minimize risks in current conditions, but do that without blowing up financial plans because they are better off holding to their plans than changing them just because of current or even persistent economic and global events. Kinder says that the pandemic and other conditions have actually helped many people make progress on their life plans, because it simplified the economics for many people and helped them focus on what is important. In the Danger Zone segment, Kyle Guske of New Constructs looks at Airbnb and Squarespace, two stocks that have been hammered during the market's recent fall but where he believes the troubles are only starting and there's another big loss to come. And in the Market Call, hedge-fund manager Steven Grey of Grey Value Management discusses the importance of getting your buy prices right, noting that buy-and-hold investors who overpay dramatically for a stock are committing a form of 'slow-motion financial suicide.'
Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says 'the enemy right now for investors in the market is time,' and understanding how to be patient, because the market's current troubles are masking economic strength and the likelihood of a U-shaped recovery. He expects that a record year for corporate buybacks and an investing public that is flush with cash should buffer the market against any prolonged downturn, creating a recovery for patient investors who ride it out. In the Talking technicals segment, Matt Fox of Ithaca Wealth Management says we are currently experiencing a cyclical bear market within a secular bull market, but notes that that charts are 'screaming caution,' and that investors who have been conditioned to buy every dip should be waiting for 'a wash-out in sentiment before the charts give an all-clear.' Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence and the Active Investment Company Alliance returns to The NAVigator to answer listener questions about the persistence of discounts, and Joe Rinaldi of Quantum Financial Advisors talks both stocks and exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that war, inflation and more are changing the narrative for the market, but mostly for the short term. He still believes the domestic stock market is positioned to outperform later this year and into 2023 as the strong economy is able to flex its muscle and have influence that overcomes the headlines. He suggests looking for companies in areas that are becoming undervalued now, like small-cap stocks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, chief executive officer at ETFTrends.com, makes the ETF of the Week a trend-following play on a commodity and, in the Market Call, Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar, makes his debut talking about stocks and a market that he says has pivoted from overvalued to about 10 percent undervalued now after the early struggles of the year, making it much easier to find stocks worth buying.
Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily says that current conditions are worrisome enough that investors may not be able to adjust their attitudes quickly, as they do in more normal times. Discussing the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, Carson discusses how the big decline this month was caused by gas prices as much or more than by war in Ukraine, but he notes that given how fast prices have risen at the pump, the decline in confidence may just be getting started. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about which investment companies are avoiding Russia, and author Joe Sanok chats about changing your lifestyle and making Thursday 'the New Friday.' In the Market Call, Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stocks and in the lightning round revisits three securities that Chuck discussed on yesterday's show with David Harden of Summit Global investments.
Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton Investments, says that the experts have been off the mark in forecasting how the market would respond to the war in Ukraine, to rising inflation and more, which has him focusing on individual stocks and their fundamentals rather than letting the macro-economic outlook determine investment positions. Turning to the market's technicals, Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the current decline is not yet a buy-the-dip opportunity, and that he will remain on the sidelines until the tide turns and investors start rushing to put their cash to work. nd in the Market Call, David Harden, chief investment officer at Summit Global Investments, talks during the Market Call about managing volatility in stocks during these back-and-forth times.
Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, says he expects unemployment to drop potentially below the 3 percent level -- which is better than so-called 'full employment' -- which takes 'the stag' out of stagflation possibilities. With the jobs market not being stagnant, Weniger says the economy can power through rising inflation and interest-rate concerns to keep moving forward, even if consumers and investors suffer some discomfort along the way. Also on the show, David Trainer re-visits Danger Zone picks Shopify and Coinbase after their recent earnings reports and says that the big recent declines in each stock are still just the beginning of the problems for investors who stick around. In the Market Call, Bernie Horn of Polaris Global Value talks stocks and the impact that the war in Ukraine is having on global markets.
Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies, says the market appears to be in a long-term trading range for 2022, not because of the geopolitical concerns over war in Ukraine or the worrisome inflation numbers or pressure on interest rates at home, but instead based on technical reasons which show that the major indexes have lost upside momentum and will struggle to get it back. In the Big Interview, Scott Knapp, chief market strategist for CUNA Mutual Group, says that the conflict in Ukraine has changed the headlines, but it shouldn't have changed portfolios much because economic struggles were easy to foresee at the end of last year; likewise, he's not changing his outlook or strategy for 2022 until he sees a slowdown in demand and a reduction in gross domestic product. This show also features John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance, discussing the promising investments created by an important recent evolution in closed-end funds, and Kevin Kelly of Kelly ETFs -- a firm with funds specializing in gene-editing technology, residential and apartment real estate, and hotel and lodging companies -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says that several interest rate hikes will not sour the economy now, so that if the Federal Reserve doesn't go too far on tightening, there's no reason for a recession. Valliere says that he does expect more recession concerns at the start of 2023, as the economy digests the protracted impact of not just rate hikes but inflation, waning economic stimulus and the offshoots of the war in Ukraine. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a trending commodities fund -- sensitive to both the war and inflation -- his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses the savers credit and how a majority of Americans don't know that it exists, let alone how to claim it when filing their taxes, and Stephen Dodson of The Bretton Fund talks value investing in the Market Call.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that the market is working its way through a correction -- troubles exacerbated by the war in Ukraine -- but that hasn't dampened the economic underpinnings or deflated the spending desires of consumers, which should help growth in corporate earnings pick up and push the market higher later this year, leading to 'pretty flattering returns for investors' this year. Likewise, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research says that the 'green shoots' of recovery are starting to show, but warns that the recovery will not be V-shaped and fast, requiring the market to return to the normalcy of posting 'good reactions to good news' that has been missing early this year. In the Market Call, Malcolm Polley of Stewart Capital Advisors talks about picking stocks through the lens of 'business perspective investing.'
Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, says that the war in Ukraine has become integrated along with other concerns -- most notably heightened inflation -- which may not stop the Federal Reserve from going ahead with planned interest rate hikes this month, but make it likely that any rate moves will be smaller and more controlled. Mish Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com says that while the stock market has been volatile throughout the first few days of fighting, she expects it to be stuck in a range for a while as the situation plays out and while the potential fallout remains murky. She sees long-term opportunities, but urges caution now. Also on the show, Rod Griffin of Experian explains how 'credit invisibles' now have more and different tools (such as Experian Go) to help build credit and get on the radar screen of the credit bureaus and establish a personal history, and Lance Canon of Hood River Capital Management talks about investing in small-cap stocks during the Market Call.
David Trainer, president at New Constructs -- a data firm that analyzes funds and stocks -- says that the hugely popular ARK Innovation Fund is fooling investors into believing that innovation itself is an investment strategy or asset class, and he notes that many of the holdings are simply early entrants to an industry with little or no competitive edge. That's why a number of the fund's biggest and best-known holdings have been in the Danger Zone, which is where he puts the ETF itself this week, noting that while ARK Innovation has lost about half of its value since the start of 2021, he believes it could fall another 70 percent from here. Also on the show, Chuck talks about how long geopolitical events typically effect the market, Giorgio Caputo, senior fund manager at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, discusses how investors can get through the interest rate and inflation transitions and how to invest once the higher-rate environment arrives, and Adam Coons, portfolio manager at Winthrop Capital Management, talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Bill Nygren, co-manager of the Oakmark Fund -- whose three-decade track record has made him an investment legend -- says that while the video from the Ukraine is distressing and the headlines about interest rates and inflations are worrisome, investors need to stay focused on the long run. Nygren says that he doesn't think 'any of the events we are seeing in the world today will meaningfully affect our estimates of business value,' though he notes that they will move prices to create buying opportunities that will pay off in time. There's also more talk on value investing as Mike Liss of the American Century Value Fund talks 'relative value' and stocks in the Market Call. And in The NAVigator segment, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence and the Active Investment Company Alliance, says that investors seeing discounts widen in closed-end funds due to current market confusion will find that these conditions make it important to buying the underlying asset and not just the biggest discounts.
Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Total Return Fund, says that inflation will remain a hot-button topic for investors for several years because the Federal Reserve 'is going to have a really hard time getting 6 or 7 percent inflation down to 2, which is their longer-term target.' Vataru says that how the Fed accomplishes that and the tools they use to reduce inflation will go a long way to determining what the stock and bond markets are capable of achieving and the results they can deliver. Also on the show, there's a new ETF built specifically to take advantage of opportunities in inflationary times, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes it the ETF of the Week, and in the Market Call, Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments discusses long-term, thematic investing at a time with so many short- and intermediate-term headlines and worries.
Author James Fok discusses his new book 'Financial Cold War,' about economic relations between the United States and China, noting that the longer current tensions linger, the worse the situation gets for both the countries and their citizens. Making the situation worse, Fok says, are that people in both countries are finding it harder to get by, and with politicians glossing over domestic issues and deflecting to an outside enemy, it is stoking the flames of nationalism and making it harder to avoid a damaging economic donnybrook.Also on the show, David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight discusses a recent survey showing that investors have overblown return expectations that their advisers are struggling to bring in line with reality, and Eric Lynch, managing director at Scharf Investments and portfolio manager on the Scharf Funds talks in the Market Call about balancing upside potential against downside risk.
Both JJ Kinahan and David Trainer gave takes on the Federal Reserve and its influence over the current stock market on today's show. Kinahan, the chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, says that while he isn't expecting any real surprises from the central bank, the market is craving clarity and guidance before it will settle down and be less volatile and more predictable. Trainer, the founder and president at New Constructs -- who discusses Shake Shack and Carvana in the Danger Zone segment -- says that the Fed 'is not going to take the punch bowl away,' but warns that it will taper its economic relief down to a few drops. Also on the show, Michael Wagner of Omnia Family Wealth talks about how the crisis in the Ukraine will hit home for domestic investors and consumers, and Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Asset Management, talks about taking an endowment approach and making innovation an asset class while he discusses ETFs in the Market Call.
Technical analyst Michael Sincere says that the 13-year bear market has set the stage for a bear market on the horizon, though he doesn't know whether the next big decline will be steep and fast or a long, slow, two-bad-days, one-good-day pattern that maximizes the pain. Sincere says he is watching the 50-day moving average and will stay constructive on the market so long as the indexes are above that benchmark. Also on the show, there are discussions about tackling a rising-rate environment and using real assets to help hedge and hold off inflation; the former features Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp. talking about business-development companies (BDCs), while the latter interview is with Christopher Huemmer, senior investment strategist for ETFs at Northern Trust. And in the Market Call, Michael Loukas, chief executive officer at TrueMark Investments talks about low-volatility stocks and artificial intelligence and deep-learning plays.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that the market's rocky start to 2022 has been built around headlines and not the underlying fundamentals, which means that investors should not be changing expectations. He believes that the combination of rising rates, higher-but-controlled inflation and solid economic underpinnings will result in a positive stock market going forward. He does note that investors will want to turn toward dividend stocks to protect against rising rates, but says they will want to avoid TIPS - inflation-protected Treasury bonds - because they don't perform as most people expect during rising-rate environments. Another guest talking inflation is economist Kamran Afshar, who runs the Kamran Afshar Data Analytics Center and uses modeling to help companies forecast and project business conditions, and he discusses how inflation is impacting different groups of people uniquely and that how much trouble it causes an individual turns out to be mostly a factor of the person's age. Also, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com revisits a fund that he made 'ETF of the Week' shortly after it opened a year ago, noting that it offers investors a rare ESG opportunity where they can invest in a hot market sector while also doing some good for a charity targeting America's number-one killer disease.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh says that investors have been getting ahead of themselves and the Federal Reserve -- wildly anticipating the possibilities -- and should instead wait for the Fed to taper its bond purchases, raise rates twice and start shrinking its balance sheet. 'Then,' Mahn says, 'we can get a good assessment if inflationary pressures are starting to subside and if the economy is continuing to grow.' Mahn expects the economy and the stock market to be in 'still growing but slowing' mode for 2022, even as rate hikes and inflation play out. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research suggests that investors looking for improved returns during the current rate-hike cycle consider corporate high-yield bonds and tax-free municipal bonds as unlikely but interesting alternatives for generating growth. And in the Market Call, Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities -- manager of the Wedbush ETFMG Global Cloud Technology ETF -- talks cloud and other technology stocks
Paul Espinosa, lead manager at Seafarer Overseas Value, says that many central banks have been raising rates ahead of the Federal Reserve -- which is not the usual case -- and while those rate increases have led to some stock market struggles, the support for the currency creates more investment security and opportunity for long-term investors. He says investors will need to be patient and picky, noting that emerging markets may struggle but will still offer up plenty of winners for good stockpickers. Also on the show: Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the troubles that half of Americans have experienced with membership services and recurring charges on credit cards -- and how to avoid falling into the same trap -- we revisit a recent question Chuck answered on the various methods for paying off credit-card debt, and Nathan Rex of Eigenvector Capital talks value investing in the Market Call.
Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, says that while headlines have focused on economic risks and the tightening moves of the Federal Reserve, the firm's analysis of recession risk shows that most economic factors are still favorable, suggesting that there will be expansion -- accompanied by stock market gains -- over the course of 2023, with the prospect of a true economic downturn occurring next year at the earliest. In the Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs talks about how a huge percentage of companies in the Standard and Poor's 500 are overstating earnings for reasons that are only uncovered by digging into the footnotes; he singles out Amazon.com, Ford Motor Co. and Block and explains why things could get ugly when the market figures out the problem. Also on the show, Barry Metzger of Charles Schwab talks about the firm's latest survey of traders and how they are likely to respond to the market's sluggish start to the year and, in the Market Call, Maury Fertig of Relative Value Partners discusses how closed-end funds have been performing during the heightened volatility that has started the year.
Chris Maxey, senior vice president for investments at Wealthspire, says that investors --especially those close to retirement -- should be anxious for interest rates to re-set higher so that they can lock in better return stream, even though they will suffer through volatility while the bond market goes through the transition. Maxey also noted that investors should expect January's rough stretch of volatility to be repeated several times throughout 2022, making this a good time to rebalance a portfolio to stay on target through the back-and-forth. In 'The NAVigator' segment, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence -- the recently appointed executive director of the Active Investment Company Alliance -- talks about how investors should expect closed-end funds to perform in rising-rate cycles and whether investors should bank on senior-loan funds while rates are going up. And in the Market Call, Chris Krumenacker, senior equity research analyst at Bryn Mawr Trust, talks about where he is finding buys amid changing market conditions, how he maintains his 'watch list' and more.
Leah Bennett, president at Westwood Wealth Management, says that the time when investors could buy pretty much anything and make money has changed, which is going to force investors to look for sustainable cash flows and solid balance sheets, while also maintaining proper diversification to guard against market surprises because 'any major downturn we have gone through has been lead by a sector being overvalued.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an international fund that hedges away the currency risk -- and that has strongly benefitted early this year as a result -- his pick for 'ETF of the Week,' and we revisit a recent interview with Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates
Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that he expects the market to bounce around through the end of the first quarter with January's setback mostly over at this point. Still, in a wide-ranging interview during which he compared cryptocurrency to rock-and-roll music, he noted that he's not buying into the dip because he foresees real sluggishness while the market waits to see not just what the Federal Reserve will do but the amplitude of the central bank's moves. Until that gets sorted out, Papic noted that he is struggling to be bullish on domestic markets. Also on the show, Anuj Nayar discusses a Lending Club study which showed an alarmingly high number of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck, with a surprisingly high number of the people struggling actually earning six-figure salaries; in the Market Call, Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses the 'XOUT' methodology that effectively looks at reasons to weed out stocks poised for future sluggishness, slowdowns and declines, while hanging on the companies with real growth potential.
Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says that the longer the market goes sideways without any real downturn, the more the long-term probabilities favor a rebound, but Grimes noted that any potential serious weakness will be here late in the first quarter or by the second. That said, he is watching the current weakness in cryptocurrencies and how crypto has been leading the equity markets; if crypto troubles continue or grow, therefore, he could see more potential for downturn going forward, and could create an environment with significant selling pressure that investors will want to sit out. Also on the show, Chuck talks banks and financial-services stocks with David Ellison of the Hennessy Large-Cap and Small-Cap Financial Funds, discussed how investors should be adjusting portfolios for inflation with Tom Siomades, chief investment officer at AE Wealth Management, and covers how Americans' financial priorities have been changing during the pandemic with Mitch Kime of Key Bank.
Angelo Kourkafas, investment strategist for Edward Jones, says that while he expects heightened volatility for the year ahead, he's not expecting something worse like a recession or a market crash. No matter the conditions, however, he says that investors should be watching to see if the Federal Reserve can avoid a policy mistake, noting that 'Investors should not fear the first hike, but should fear the last one,' noting that the economy should absorb the first moves easily but any potential problems will come later. Also on the show, Matthew Rados of Gametime.co talks Super Bowl ticket prices, why they are setting records this year and the best time to buy them if you are hoping for a 'bargain,' David Trainer of New Constructs puts a popular name in the hot pet-care industry into 'The Danger Zone,' saying the business is the second coming of Pets.com, a high-flyer of the Internet Bubble days that wound up worthless, and Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments, talks 'Warren Buffett value-style investing' in the Market Call.
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, says investors are facing modest earnings and economic growth need to make their expectations for 2022 modest as well; he notes that despite the bad start to the year on the market, he expects things to get better from here and for the market to finish the year in positive territory, just with gains that reflect that moderate outlook instead of mirroring the big results of 2021. Also on the show, Rob Shaker, of Shaker Financial, says that the market's January swoon -- which widened the discounts on closed-end funds -- took investors to the point in the discount cycle where the bargains are biggest and it's time to buy, and Matt King, president of King Wealth Advisors, talks about mixing value and momentum factors to find the right mutual funds and ETFs to buy now.
James Hickey, managing director of alternative strategies at Spearhead Capital, discusses investment opportunities to boost yields outside of traditional stocks and bonds, and discusses how important those choices are now in light of higher inflation that he says is permanent and that has him highly negative on traditional fixed-income investments for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, chief executive officer at ETFTrends.com, makes a fund that donates all management fees to a charity his pick as 'ETF of the Week,' and in the Market Call, Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund talks absolute value investing and how the markets recent troubles have presented him with the chance to get fully invested again and at reasonable prices.
David Jilek, chief investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers says that the market of late has been a battle between 'The Buy-the-Dip Crowd' and 'The Run for the Hills Brigade,' and while he makes a case for each argument, he says investors may want to position themselves between those two factions, succeeding more by staying in the middle than by picking sides. In today's Left Brain Thinking segment, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth Management takes on the classic '4 percent rule' for amassing sufficient retirement savings, noting that today's rising inflation and slowing growth conditions may require asset-allocation changes to reach targets. In the Book Interview, author Rupert Russell discusses his new book 'Price Wars: How the Commodities Markets Made Our Chaotic World,' and how commodities and supply-chain issues have the power to topple governments, and James Abate of the Centre Funds talks stocks and staying focused on the long term in the Market Call.
Toni Turner, president of TrendStar Group, says that while she expects the market's bullish case to win out over the longer term, right now the tape is showing a fight between bulls and bears over issues like higher inflation and interest rates, creating what she called a 'tradeable low,' which is a buying opportunity where purchases are backed up by protective stops to limit downside risk in case the market 'gets cranky again.' In the Book Interview, Spencer Jakab of the Wal Street Journal discusses 'The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors,' which is out today, and in the Market Call, veteran financial talk show host Moe Ansari of Compak Asset Management is talking stocks based on his take that mixes technicals with fundamentals.
Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says that while the Federal Reserve may have stopped using the word 'transitory' to describe inflation, it's still the right word for most issues currently facing the market, noting that once current headline-driving situations like the supply-chain crisis and labor shortages and inflation can be sorted out, the earnings picture and growth outlook remains strong. He expects the market to struggle for another quarter or more, but to look much better in the second half of the year. David Trainer of New Constructs revisits five successful Danger Zone picks from 2021 -- UBER, AFRM, RIVN, DASH and WRBY -- that he thinks are falling knives, still dangerous despite being down more than 40 percent from their peaks, and nit he Market Call, Michael Robinson, chief technology strategist for Money Map Press, notes that there aren't many great charts to be looking at right now, and he discusses how he is picking and choosing through the increasing volatility and other changing conditions.
Markus Schomer, chief economist at PineBridge Investments, says that the big economic headlines and numbers are creating a whipsaw of reactions, which he expects to be reflected ni a 'yo-yo market -- up-and-down, up-and-down, up-and-down' for much of the year. Schomer notes that the economic cycles of nations and regions are not in sync right now, contributing to the back-and-forth. Dncan Farley, manager of the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund, says those same economic events are creating opportunities for him to find good companies with bad balance sheets or caught in sticky situations, a strategy that can generate above-market returns in time. Also on the show, Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, talks technicals and trading in this volatile market, and Jeff Lipton, head of municipal research and strategy for Oppenheimer and Co., talks about how bonds in general -- and munis in particular -- are likely to fare as rates start to rise, tax-law proposals hit Congress and more.
Elliott Gue, editor at the Energy & Income Advisor, says that the slowdown in energy exploration and development since 2014 -- that was accelerated by the economic shutdown around coronavirus in 2020 -- has created a supply squeeze that will generate 'a prolonged up-cycle in oil prices and natural gas prices' over the next few years. He's in talking stocks in the Market Call, but this show also includes Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com making a senior-loan fund his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discussing the site's survey on financial infidelity and the effect secret-keeping can have in personal relationships, and portfolio manager Conor Muldoon of Causeway Capital covering the market and the troubles he sees ahead for the markets, but also the prospects for success in value investing.
Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors, says that the market cycle still has room to run, but that the rally is undergoing a reset as it awaits more clarity from the Federal Reserve. As a result, he suggests that investors be patient and wait out the current declines rather than buying into them, noting that the market faces a series of "speed bumps" over the first half of the year before domestic and international markets will resume their climb higher. Also on the show, James Burton of Personal Capital discusses the firm's 2022 Wealth & Wellness Index, Chuck answers a question on the math behind deciding when to take Social Security benefits, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board at Research Affiliates, discusses how markets move based on narratives that are always changing, and says that investors worried about today's headlines should be asking themselves if the problems will still be big concerns in a few years. He suggests that would calm investors -- and have them looking for opportunities -- about coronavirus, global supply-chain issues and inflation, but would leave them with some real concerns about government debt and more. Also on the show, Kristin Myers, editor-in-chief of The Balance, discusses first-date costs, customs and expectations ahead of Valentine's Day, and Chuck discusses Monday's wild market ride and how investors can take their fingers off the panic button and keep their concerns in perspective.
Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at MissionSquare Retirement, says that there is still a lot of economic strength in the United States, which when coupled with a long-term outlook suggests that the stock market can overcome current concerns and a bumpy ride to deliver good returns to patient investors. Also on the show, Lester Jones discusses the latest outlook survey out today from the National Association for Business Economics, David trainer of New Constructs talks about three of the biggest winners -- meaning their stocks were losers -- that he put into the Danger Zone last year and why they are likely to be as bad or worse again this year, and Ken Laudan of the Buffalo Large Cap Growth talks in the Market Call about finding and investing in 'innovative, high-quality, durable large-cap growth companies.'
Whitney Tilson, founder/chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says that while the Nasdaq entered correction territory on Thursday and the market has had some bumps and bruises along the way, the long-running bull market is still in place and looks like it is "in the seventh inning." Amid a wide-ranging market conversation, Tilson also discusses short-selling, cryptocurrency investing, Tesla, meme stocks and how his views have -- and haven't -- changed over time. Also on the show, David Giroux of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation is back, following up on Thursday's market discussion by talking about his recent book, "Capital Allocation," and describing how the focus on the way companies use their money should shape investment decisions; and Connie Luecke, manager of the DNP Select Income Fund, discusses infrastructure investing and how it is poised to push through current conditions regardless of whether key legislation gets approved in Washington.
David Giroux, manager of the T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation fund -- which has one of the best track records in the fund world under his long stewardship -- is 'highly confident' that inflation is headed back to more normalized levels, something in the 2 to 2.5 percent range, but as the market works that out, he is not expecting any major downturn, noting that he is still able to buy relative values with the potential to generate reasonable returns regardless of what the market does next. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund that buys midstream pipeline plays his ETF of the Week, Taelor Candiloro of Clever Real Estate discusses the site's research on retirement savings -- which showed that about two thirds of Americans have either nothing saved for retirement or have less than 40 percent of the amount experts suggest they should have -- and Bill Staton of Novare Capital Management talks dividend-paying stocks in the Market Call.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that despite the anxiety produced by inflation being an economic wildcard, he expects the market to produce 'a decent year,' with returns of 8 to 10 percent on equities despite significant volatility along the way. Also on the show, Brian Dress, director of research at Left Brain Investment Research, says that the current market rotation has him looking at energy and production companies and pipeline stocks as places with potential for a pickup in growth even as the economy is slowing; financial adviser Dan Cunningham of One Day in July discusses the impact inflation and interest rates are having on long-term savers, and Chuck answers a listener's question on moving averages.
Mary Ellen Stanek, president of the Baird Funds, says that investors will benefit from higher yields and get past many of the temporary concerns hitting fixed-income markets once the current rate-adjustment period is concluded, so she suggested buckling up for the ride, increasing portfolio quality, dialing down risk and maintaining liquidity in order to act on the better opportunities that lie ahead. Also on the show, author Evan Hughes discusses his new book, 'The Hard Sell: Crime and Punishment at an Opiod Startup,' Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com talks about what consumers really want from their credit cards, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the best process for paying off credit-card debts.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock trader's Almanac, says that history has shown that markets struggle in mid-term election years, particularly when the president is a first-term Democrat, and that coupled with rising inflation and interest rates, it should make for a market that struggles this year to achieve modest single-digit gains. Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis says that the next move of the Standard and Poor's 500 -- whether it tops 4,800 or declines below 4,500 -- will go a long way to determine what the market is capable of this year; Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp. talks about the wild conditions of the housing market, but dispels much of the concern that rising mortgage rates will change them dramatically, and Alex Condrell of Cliffwater discusses how investments in middle-market corporate credit should overcome current conditions to generate something close to historic return levels of 9 percent.
Axel Merk, founder and president at Merk Investments and the Merk Funds, says he is currently underweight equities because of concerns of everything that could go wrong in the short run. He's watching interest rates, inflation, the pandemic, international and domestic politics and more and while he says long-term investors can rideo ut these concerns, anyone who needs to access their money in the next two years should be concerned. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund putting a different twist on a 'Dogs of the Dow' strategy his 'ETF of the Week,' Kate Hao, chief executive at Happy Mango discusses the fallout from Bank of America's announcement that it will join other large institutions in eliminating overdraft fees and the impact these changes will have on banking and, more broadly, society, and Chuck discusses how to deal with the five economic and financial conditions that have been mentioned the most by experts giving their outlooks for 2022.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist, Touchstone Investments says that the 'tsunami of liquidity' that was pushed into the economy throughout the pandemic is going to recede in 2022 , and the effects of money being pulled from the economy by the Federal Reserve and the government is enough to make him 'risk neutral' at least until factors like the pandemic, interest rates and inflation play out and reduce uncertainty. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the paper's latest Economic Optimism Index, in which it's hard to find any actual good feelings as consumers are scared by inflation and market volatility. Also, Chuck discusses surprising research showing that companies could provide pensions -- and deliver better results -- than by using 401(k) and other popular plans, and the Weird Financial News includes a story on 91,500 oily pennies and the investment value of Legos.
Wall Street veteran Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, has long made annual forecasts for the key financial elements of the year ahead. But coming off the global pandemic and the way it skewed economic numbers, Doll's crystal ball was murkier a year ago, and it was reflected in him hitting on fewer of his predictions. We review what happened with him, and then turn our attention to the coming 12 months, which Doll says are still hard to forecast because of the unpredictability of current trends. That said, those trending uncertainties will make for a tougher year, one in which investors are likely to find that diversification pays off more than in the recent past. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about a popular fund, ARK Innovation, that has been struggling for the last year.
Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest, says that the market is capable of generating double-digit returns for the third consecutive year despite concerns about inflation, rising interest rates and more. Bell says that what is likely to determine the market's ability to actually deliver is the actions of the Federal Reserve, which may not comfort listeners after hearing today's Book Interview, in which author Christopher Leonard, discusses his new book, 'The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy.' Also on the show, more market talk featuring Louis Ricci, head trader at Emles Advisors, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts Tesla and Box -- two picks that didn't go his way in 2021 -- back into the Danger Zone noting that the companies' ability to put off trouble doesn't mean avoiding it forever.
Tom McClellan, editor of the The McClellan Market Report, says that it's time for investors to 'change out of your tennis shoes and put on your track shoes' to deal with a market that is going to chop sideways this year, and turn 'horrible' next year. McClellan has told his subscribers to be out of the market now, as he expects a downturn over the first few months of 2022. The NAVigator segment features Robert Grunewald, chief executive officer at Flat Rock Global discussing how the interval-fund structure provides stability in a potentially volatile asset class like 'middle-market credits,' allowing investors to trade off some liquidity in pursuit of higher fixed-income returns. Also on the show, Chuck answers audience questions about saving versus paying down debt, and about the value of a found collection of old coins, and Helaine Olen of the Washington Post talks about the continued blurring of the lines between journalism and 'sponsored content,' and how hard it is to distinguish between the two at Fox Business and elsewhere.
Marty Bergin, president, Dunn Capital Management says that the absolute return on bonds is going to be negative during the coming inflationary environment, which will be scary for retirees who will lose purchasing power as they struggle with generating any real returns from fixed income. Bergin discusses inflation in terms of 'price discovery' -- the situation being caused currently by supply chain issues -- but also as a 'monetary phenomenon' resulting from the actions of central bankers, and notes that the latter is the bigger problem for consumers and investors. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com is also talking inflation today, picking a unique fund that hedges interest rate volatility and inflation as his ETF of the Week. Plus, Jacob Passy of MarketWatch discusses Robinhood's recently announced efforts to educate novice investors and Chuck answers a question about Worthy bonds -- something he owns himself -- and inflation-protected securities.
Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Investment Research, says that changing economic conditions are forcing investors to re-evaluate growth, putting heightened focus on issues with longer-term growth, and backing away from some of the momentum-driven winners from 2021. Also on the show, Chuck talks about a uniquely different alternative investment -- comic books -- for the first time in Money Life history, visiting with Andrew Davis, The Comic Book Investor; Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com discusses research on how long people hang onto their checking accounts and how much they are paying -- and perhaps overpaying -- to keep those accounts, and we revisit a recent interview with Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says consumers need to start game-planning for a higher interest-rate environment now because the few increases that are expected for this year are just a start in what he expects to be a multi-year rate-hike cycle. He gives his outlook on everything from mortgage rates to auto loans, and how consumers should be considering what to do and when in each case. Then, Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar, discusses her financial to-do list for 2022 as well as whether certain financial chores like closely tracking spending actually are worth the effort, after which economist Laurence Kotlikoff returns to the show to discuss his new book, 'Money Magic: An Economist's Secrets to More Money, Less Risk and a Better Life.'
Ken Berman, chief investment strategist at Gorilla Trades says that the Standard & Poor's 500 will 'easily hit 5,000 this year,' with the Dow Jones Industrial Average comfortably crossing 40,000, but while he expects those modest gains on the indexes, he says it will be a year when stock-picking is at a premium because so few issues are trading at highs. Berman expects the market to reach those records soon, but worries that they won't hold it, noting that two-thirds of available stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average, which suggests that there is at least heightened volatility ahead. Also on the show, Chuck discusses the savings that resulted from his personal policy of not spending anything under a 10-dollar bill and how much that can add up to if you find similar ways to save over time, Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses how much money consumers enter the new year owing as a result of holiday spending sprees, and Guy Davis, portfolio manager of The Genuine Investors ETF, discusses during the Market Call the 'genuine investments" he's looking at now.
Tom Lydon, chief executive officer at ETFTrends.com, says that the year ahead will be more challenging for fixed-income investors who have been saddled with low yields for years but who at least could count on safety from their long-term bond holdings. With the outlook for the economy changing and with inflation hitting hard right now and lingering longer than most expected through the recovery from the pandemic, Lydon made the iShares TIPS Bond fund his 'ETF of the Week,' noting that inflation-protected securities are more attractive now than they have been in years and should ease some of the yield and volatility concerns investors will face in 2022. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors and the executive chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, returns to forecast the year ahead in closed-end fund investing, including some funds he says are well-positioned and constructed for 2022. And Chuck had promised that his final interview of the year would be with his friend Michael Falk, and so we rebroadcast his final chat with Michael as a touching reminder that days are long but years are short, challenging us all to make the most of our time.
Jonathan Lansner, columnist at the Orange County Register, says that many of today's common economic tropes -- covering themes like inflation, the global supply-chain crisis, interest rates and more -- are defying logic, and he brings his logic to the show to help reframe the discussions and douse the flames of rhetoric. Another one of Chuck's journalist friends -- Rob Weisman of the Boston Globe -- also joins him on the show today, discussing the intersection of Baby Boomers, COVID and the greatest transfer of wealth in history, and Chuck dives into the dead pool and discusses the lasting memories of some mutual funds and ETFs that did not live to see 2022 (and deserved their fate).
Market technician Jeffrey Bierman, founder of TheQuantGuy.com, sees the stock market as being vulnerable to a big step back mid-way through the first quarter of 2022, noting that the market will be in a happy place and comfort zone as long as the Standard and Poor's 500 stays above 4,275; if the market falls below that level, Bierman says the pain could get close to 20 percent before things bottom out. Also on the show, Joseph Biondo of Biondo Investment Advisors gives a more optimistic -- but still cautious -- take on the market for next year, Joe Saul-Sehy of the Stacking Benjamins podcast discusses his new book, "Stacked: Your Super-Serious Guide to Modern Money Management," and Chuck takes another question from the audience about how to know you are financially set and how to invest when you get there.
Jamie Hopkins, managing partner for wealth solutions at Carson Group, says that investors who focus mostly on what to buy or own in an investment portfolio are asking the wrong question, because they need to be focused on where they are and where they want to go. Hopkins says it is particularly important to focus inward as we enter 2022 because the year is likely to feature more volatility and less profit potential than 2021 has. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses the site's latest personal financial outlook survey and how savers and investors are setting expectations for the year ahead, Barry Martin of the Shelton Equity Income Fund discusses dividend investing and covered-call strategies, and Chuck answers some audience questions about retirement savings.
John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance discusses the high number of closed-end funds that are currently trading at premiums, and the rebound that has represented in performance over 2021, as he reviews the year in closed-end fund investing. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com selects a fund meant to hedge against interest-rate risk his ETF of the Week, Meredith Stoddard of Fidelity Investments discusses the firm's annual survey of New Year's resolutions, how people feel about their prospects for 2022 and how effective personal pledges turn out to be, and Tony Tursich, co-manager of the new Calamos Global Sustainable Equities fund talks about ESG investing and how adopting sustainable strategies can power companies to prolonged, above-average gains.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist for Invesco, says that the market is likely to take a pause to get past the Omicron surge in the Covid-19 pandemic, but that after the market adjusts to the latest wave and handles changes in interest-rate policies from the Federal Reserve, stocks will rebound and continue moving forward in 2022. Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research discusses how he's changing portfolios in response to a growth outlook that has been affected by rising inflation and slowing economic conditions, pushing as a result past the technology stocks and toward financials, health-care and energy companies. And in the Market Call, Eric Shoenstein of Jensen Investment Management talks about investing in quality names for anything and everything the market can dish out.
Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy for Fundstrat Global Advisors, says he expects the market to sell off by about 20 percent from March through July of next year, before rallying back to finish flat or up slightly in 2022. Newton says that the tech sector's strength is what is largely staving off a down year, but it won't make the ride particularly smooth, as he is expecting heightened volatility. Also on the show, Chuck talks about setting goals -- and how New Year's target setting for 2022 should be more short-term focused than it has been over the last few years -- and we revisit a recent chat with Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co..
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says that investors are wondering whether to add risk exposure to portfolios or remove it given a range of worrisome trends like inflation, interest rates, unemployment and much more, yet he expects the economy and stock market to do better than most observers are forecasting for 2022, because the economy is humming along at a pace that should stave off the concerns for a while longer. Also on teh show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's new probe into buy-now/pay-later financing, Bob Powell of Retirement Daily discusses proposed changes to Roth IRA rules and how some of them might make investors want to do conversions before the year ends, and David Trainer of New Constructs opens the cup on Chobani -- the yogurt maker with the upcoming IPO -- and says he thinks the deal has already soured.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that strong market performance in 2020 and '21 has masked downturns in most sectors and industries, meaning that there isn't so much pressure for upward trends to reverse in the year ahead. While she does see more volatility and changing leadership -- creating a good time for investors to rebalance portfolios -- she thinks that there remains room for market growth ahead. Also on the show, Nathan Briggs of Ropes and Gray discusses the new trend of 'follow-on offerings' for closed-end funds and how these capital-raising efforts have a mostly positive impact for shareholders, and Laura Adams talks about a survey from Finder.com showing that Americans are wasting billions of dollars on unwanted holiday gifts and what the recipients actually do with the less-than-ideal presents they get.
Two different market observers -- Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.cmo and Andy Kapyrin, co-chief investment officer at RegentAtlantic -- say that while the Federal Reserve telegraphed its strategy for tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates, how it follows through will determine just how volatile and troublesome the stock market will be in 2022. Both say they expect more volatility and lower returns, but they note that if the Fed must get more aggressive with rate increases and other strategies, it could change the outlook for earnings growth, which would mute the market's ability to keep moving. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks an esoteric new fund from a hot fund company as his 'ETF of the Week,' and Dean Brauer of GoHenry.com -- a site dedicated to making children financially capable -- discusses the money lessons that can be distributed along with the gifts this holiday season.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, says investors should expect market conditions to be more uncomfortable next year than they have been in 2021, calling for a return to volatility that will include air pockets that can drop the market suddenly, and for more than a few days. That said, Sosnick does not expect the current news cycle from the Federal Reserve to dramatically change the market for the remainder of this year. Also on the show, Ted Rossman from Bankrate.com discusses a survey showing the perils of lending money to friends and family, Chuck takes an audience member's portfolio question, and Stephen McKee of the No-Load Fund Mutual Fund Selections & Timing newsletter talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners talks in the Market Call about the importance of changing asset allocations to overcome the low-yield environment, and maintaining the delicate balance between wanting to own funds that are the best in their category against the danger of moving in and out of funds too rapidly, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that consumers don't fully understand how deferred-interest programs work -- leading them to fall into classic financial traps -- and Vivian Tsai of the College Savings Foundation talks about how easy it has become for people to give a gift of college savings. Plus, we revisit a recent chat about the markets with Jack Ablin from Cresset Capital Management.
Rodney Brooks, personal finance columnist at U.S. News and World Report -- author of "Fixing the Racial Wealth Gap" -- says that for all of the causes behind racial and ethnic wealth divides in America, the biggest, best solution is not government programs but basic financial education, literacy combined with opportunities so that, in time, minorities will not hold a nickel's worth of generational wealth compared to every dollar held by white people. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, discusses the current rise in neutral sentiment among investors, David Trainer of New Constructs offers up a holiday gift -- an attractive stock instead of the usual troublesome ones -- in The Danger Zone, and Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research at Morningstar, talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says that stock market valuations are at levels last seen at the peak of the Internet bubble, but that the number of stocks trading at highs is broader than it was back then. With that in mind, he expects a "return towards sobriety' for the market ahead, with high-priced growth and technology stocks likely to get market down significantly in 2022, while financials, energy and traditional value stocks have much better prospects ahead. Also on the show, Zach Jonson of Stack Financial Management talks about the high-risk environment that he sees based on key technical indicators, Harin DeSilva of 361 Capital discusses the changing volatility picture and how it should make investors think about getting defensive, and potentially balancing their long positions with short ones, and fund attorney Thomas DeCapo of Skadden Arps covers the changing backdrop for activism in closed-end funds in The NAVigator.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that with cash generating nothing, bond yields being paltry and interest rates and inflation on the rise, "it's not an easy market for allocators." McKnight says that his response for about the last six months -- despite heightened volatility and prospects for slower growth -- has been to overweight equities, tilted heavily towards domestic stocks, though he also sees developed international looking like more of an opportunity than emerging markets moving forward. Also on the show, Tom Lydon makes a top-rated municipal-bond fund his ETF of the Week pick, and, in the Market Call, Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management explains why he'd sell Apple shares -- despite liking the company and its products -- and the importance of properly valuing the businesses you are buying.
Neil Hennessy, president of Hennessy Advisors and the Hennessy Funds, says that despite legitimate worries over inflation, interest rates, the continuing pandemic and more, the economic underpinnings and stock market fundamentals are so strong that he believes the current rally has legs that will last well into 2022. He does expect pullbacks and corrections ahead, "but it's not going to be the end of the bull market." Also on the show, Freddy Garcia, of Left Brain Wealth Management discusses year-end moves investors should be evaluating before the timing gets tight, Matt Zajechowski or Northstar Inbound talks about a survey done for HomeAdvisor.com looking at the surprising amount that homebuyers spend correcting "mistakes" made by their home's prior owner, and Chuck talks about stocks for the Christmas stockings this year, and which companies might be appropriate gifts for the young-uns in your life.
John Waggoner, financial editor at AARP.org, says that the return of volatility has investors on the edge, expecting a downturn that feels overdue, but he notes that economic conditions and the market are strong enough that people should just calm down, look at diversifying and keep on plowing ahead. Waggoner also gives his take on crypto investing, emerging markets and much more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Also on the show, Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics discusses the National Association for Business Economics December outlook survey, which forecasts full-employment for the country by the end of 2022, though the status is not likely to be achieved by conventional methods; in the Market Call, Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital -- one of the original Turtle Traders -- talks about riding trends and which stocks he likes in current market conditions.
Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, says that the economy has such rock-solid fundamentals that periods of volatility and downturn remain opportunitie4s to jump in and expand your investment positions. That could change if the latest Covid variant takes off, if the Federal Reserve 'panics and raises interest rates' too soon or too far and more, but until or unless that happens, Gayle notes that he doesn't know anyone forecasting a recession next year, meaning 'the ground for further gains remains fertile.' Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts United Airlines in 'The Danger Zone' for overstating its earnings, author Harry Margolis discusses 'The Baby Boomers Guide to Trusts,' and we revisit a recent chat about the market with Ed Clissold, chief US strategist for Ned Davis Research.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says investors who have been conditioned to buy every stock market decline may want to be patient with current volatility, because the market hasn't busted through support levels. He worries that investors could sell now, only to have support hold up so that investors actually are getting out at the bottom 'and two weeks later they'll be pulling their hair out.' Kosar says the current decline should not be sold until the market moves dives a bit further. Also on the show, Parth Doshi, vice president of closed-end funds at Nuveen, discusses why investors might want to use new interval funds -- rather than traditional closed-end funds -- for their municipal bond holdings, Mark Hamrick of BankRate.com talks about the jobless claims numbers and what the report is signalling for the economy ahead, and James Abate of Centre Asset Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that investors' only real chance to outrun inflation in these markets is with risk assets like stocks, though he says that investors are going to want to tilt to companies with pricing power to withstand inflation. Stone says that investors will still want to keep an allocation to bonds as a safe haven to help them through short-term volatility, but he says investors needing income must be aware of interest-rate and inflation risks even in looking for parking places for cash. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes one of the hottest funds in 2021 -- a niche fund trading in carbon emissions futures -- his 'ETF of the Week,' and author Casey Michel discusses his new book, 'American Kleptocracy: How the U.S. Created the World's Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History.'
Rob Sharps, president and chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, says that the stock market has mostly taken in stride and priced in the Federal Reserve reducing its bond purchases and raising interest rates sooner than had previously been expected, and that it can weather the inflation/rate-hike storm without a major bear market. Sharps worries that the economy will have to stand more on its own -- with the end of Covid stimulus packages -- to keep things moving, so he does expect some slowing, but he sees opportunities in small- and mid-cap stocks as the recovery slows its roll. Also on the show, Jeff Auxier, manager of the Auxier Focus Fund, talks about finding long-term buy-and-hold businesses at reasonable prices in the Market Call, and Ken Tumin, founder at DepositAccounts.com, discusses the banking fee structures that have been changed -- for better or worse -- as a result of the pandemic.
Joe Keefe, president of Impax Asset Management and the Pax World Funds, says that investors should be focused on good news about the economy, balancing out concerns with inflation and interest rates to come away expecting a pretty good year in 2022. Keefe doesn't expect the market to see the kind of high returns it has delivered this year, but he says the economy still has a lot of potential to grow to make the new year better than many expect. Among those not seeing great things ahead is Scott Crowe, chief investment officer at CenterSquare Investment Management, who says that Covid concerns, high inflation, the expectation of rising interest rates and more factors to lead to a 'mid-cycle slowdown.' Crowe also says of real estate markets that 'Office is the new retail,' meaning that demographic and other changes impacting the commercial real estate market are likely to be every bit as impactful on office space as the evolution of the Internet and at-home shopping has been on retail properties. Also on the show, Chuck answers more audience questions about U.S. savings Bonds, and expresses his appreciation for Sam Stewart, founder of the Wasatch Funds and former Money Life guest, who died last week.
Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, says that he is concerned that investors don't understand just how badly their portfolios will perform in 2022 when interest rates start to rise. The way tech stocks and high-momentum sectors of the market are already reacting, Holzer said, should make investors cautious and have them looking at financial stocks and insurance companies, plus utilities, going forward. Also on the show, Ted Rossman talks about the latest Bankrate.com survey covering the shopping issues that more than three-quarters of Americans were facing before the holiday season got into full swing, David Trainer of New Constructs put AMC Entertainment -- one of the original meme stocks -- back into the Danger Zone, questioning whether there is any real value to the company's stock at all, and Robin Wigglesworth, columnist for the Financial Times, discusses his new book on the creation and evolution of the index fund and how it went from being ridiculed and scorned to being the cornerstone of trillions of dollars in investment portfolios in just a few decades.
Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief executive officer at Centerstone Investors, says that tech and growth-oriented investors could see some trouble ahead, as growth rates slow from Covid-era comparisons, leading to a potentially significant correction next spring. Value investors -- and Deshpande is one -- should see their methods continue to pay off because they don't rely on continuing multiple expansion to drive their profits. Also on the show, Gaal Surugeon, portfolio manager at Brookfield Asset Management's Public Securities Group, discusses real assets and their potential with the passage of the new infrastructure bill, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a brand-new ESG fund his ETF of the Week, and author Maura Thomas offers tips for improving the organization and eliminating the clutter of your email inbox.
Two portfolio managers provide a lot of reason for investor optimism in today's show, with Larry Cordisco of Osterweis Capital Management discussing 'pockets of opportunity' in the market, highlighted by quality names that have actually been lagging behind the market as it has returned to record-high levels. Cordisco sees opportunities in dividend-paying stocks, which is particularly important for investors looking for income. Meanwhile, Jack Janasiewicz of Natixis Investment Managers says that strong corporate earnings and consumer spending should be able to overcome inflation concerns to limit the market's potential for a downturn, turning any downturn into a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research revisits Nvidia and Bath and Body Works to see if they can continue their fast-growth trajectory after positive third-quarter earnings reports, and Chuck answers an audience-member's question about U.S. Savings Bonds.
David Wright, lead portfolio manager at Sierra Investment Management, says that the market is currently so overvalued that it has a lot more downside room to run than upside. While Wright remains fully invested right now -- and isn't calling for a major reversal in the immediate future -- he cautioned that investors should be looking to protect gains from heightened market volatility ahead by using stop-loss orders on their biggest and most risky positions. Also on the show, Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services says that he thinks the market is due for a technical pullback -- possibly before the holidays -- before it can go off on another run, while Greg McBridge of Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that a majority of American workers feel like they are behind when it comes to retirement savings. In the Market Call, Mark Lehmann, chief executive officer at JMP Securities talks about fast-growth companies in the technology, health care, real estate and financial-services sectors.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that the inflation spike created by the global supply crisis that has pushed inflation to the 6 percent level will last for another three to six months before fading, but he notes that there are structural elements that are also pushing inflation higher, and those conditions are not transitory. As a result, he expects inflation to retreat to the 2 to 3 percent range later in 2022 and to remain there for the next three to five years. Also on the show, Meredith Stoddard discusses Fidelity Investments' 2021 American Caregivers Study, author Jeffrey Hooke focuses on his latest book -- “The Myth of Private Equity: An Inside Look at Wall Street’s Transformative Investments” -- and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts Peloton stock back in the Danger Zone after the company's most recent earnings report.
Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist for Ned Davis Research, says that the market has room to run into next year, but that 2022 is likely to see much more volatility and much slower growth, even if inflation concerns start to fade and interest rates don't move dramatically higher. Clissold expects an earnings environment that is less friendly, traditional mid-term election year doldrums and more to hold the market to an average year overall, but with more pullbacks and downturns en route to that profitable finish. By contrast, Jim Welsh, macro strategist at Smart Portfolios, says the technicals -- along with some market history, plus higher inflation for longer than he believes most are expecting -- suggest that trouble is coming next year; unlike most technicians who have appeared on the show, Welsh expects the market to take a step back before starting a Santa Claus rally to finish 2021. Also on the show, Stephen Hester, partner at Wide Moat Research and editor at the Intelligent REIT Options Advisor newsletter, compares business-development companies to REITs as a portfolio tool, and financial adviser Tony Hixon discusses his book, 'Retirement Stepping Stones,' and how important it is for people to consider more than their finances as they prepare to end their working careers.
FeiFei Li, head of equities at Research Affiliates, says that any negative shock to the market could cause a 'very big correction,' but even without that kind of surprise events, she says that 'the market is facing a risk of delivering negative returns in the second half of 2022.' Despite the changing environment, Li is bullish on value investing moving forward, saying it should come to the fore as the market struggles. In the Market Call, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, talks about global deep-value investing and the trouble some companies and industries must get into in order to be undervalued in today's market conditions; and with the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com explores a new, leveraged trend play in a narrow industry that's not for the faint of heart.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that current market valuations are at the top of their historical ranges, so 'anyone who is bullish on the market isn't going to be making a valuation argument.' Yet Ablin makes the argument that the market has room to run because the economic underpinnings remain strong and the Federal Reserve is still keeping liquidity strong despite inflation fears. Ablin discusses the wildcards that could change conditions in a hurry, but notes that investors are likely to be reasonably happy until the picture changes. Also on the show, portfolio manager Stan Majcher from Hotchkis and Wiley talks about the oil and energy markets -- and throws in a quick take on the financial sector too -- author Jennifer Moss discusses 'The Burnout Epidemic,' which is both her new book and a nationwide problem in the workforce, and Dan Keady, chief financial planning strategist at TIAA, covers the firm's latest survey, which showed that Americans have dual big concerns for retirement, specifically running out of money and running out of time.
Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer at Cambiar Investors, says that the Chinese government is changing the global investment picture and has him concerned about investing there, noting that investors can prosper from the growth of China's economy without facing the fire directly. Barish also notes that current financial conditions in the United States are 'generous,' leaving them mostly one way to go from here, making it that investors should think about protecting profits and lower expectations. By comparison, veteran technical analyst Martin Pring says that his long-term indicators show an economy that is nowhere close to a recession, despite dangerously high inflation rates, noting that his preferred market indicators mostly show room to run before a downturn or recession. Also on the show, Michelle Delgado discusses recent research from Clever Real Estate showing a growing disconnect between Americans' income and home prices, making houses hard to afford than ever before, and author Tanja Hester talks about 'Wallet Activism,' and how Americans can change their habits and their patterns to help themselves -- and society -- get the most out of every dollar they earn and spend.
Lou Harvey, president and chief executive officer at DALBAR Inc., says that investors can get unbiased advice that's in their best interest from the many new online 'robo advisor' platforms, but the trade-off is that the quality of advice is lower than hiring a human adviser. In the firm's most recent 'Best Interest Analysis,' DALBAR found significant issues with traditional advisers failing to work in the best interest of the client, a discrepancy he said is largely stemming from regulations which don't require all types of advisers to work to a fiduciary standard. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts 'salad company' Sweet Green in the Danger Zone, saying that the IPO is nearly worthless despite being highly valued out of the box; Brian Hamilton of One discusses the financial stresses Americans are already worrying about for the upcoming holidays, and Eric Marshall of the Hodges Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Clyde McGregor, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Equity and Income fund, says that while investors are using stocks now to deliver income the way fixed income has always done, it doesn't mean that investors should throw balance out the window. He notes that the point of a balanced portfolio is the ability to withstand volatility and rapid changes in the environment, and notes that portfolios remaining relatively close to a classic 60-40 stocks/bonds allocation continue achieving that, even in today's low-rate environment. Also on the show, D.R. Barton Jr. of Woodshaw Financial Group talks technicals, noting that market sentiment has turned sharply in the last few weeks, with a real appetite for risk having come back and driving the current rally -- despite possible small setbacks -- to the end of the year; Michael Spatacco of Bancroft Capital discusses changes in closed-end funds and how new structures are more significant to the industry than the development of exchange-traded funds was to traditional mutual funds, and Brian Yacktman, president of the YCG Funds, talks about stocks with 'enduring pricing power' in the Market Call.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, says that the current bull market -- coming on the heels of a short, steep recession/bear market at the beginning of the pandemic -- is in its early stages and will roll into 2022 and beyond. He notes that for as long as economic growth and earnings stay strong, buoyed by monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds, 'there's still some time, we think, for this bull market to have some tricks up its sleeves and keep on rolling.' In another Big Interview on today's show, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that gold has not been a great inflation hedge at a time when investors are worried about the transitory nature of rising prices in large measure because the market doesn't expect inflation to last and has priced that into the metal. That said, Milling-Stanley still made a strong case for the role gold can play in a portfolio now, noting that he thinks this is a time to be loading up. And Tom Lydon, chief executive officer at ETFTrends.com makes a clean-energy index fund his ETF of the Week in light of the recent global summit on climate change.
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that while the stock market has returned to record levels, he's not seeing the overpricing that is typical or a market peaking. Instead, stocks have further to run to reach fair value; he does see this bull run acting differently right now, with 'much more straight up -- and less down days -- than a typical bull market.' Callahan says that he expects the rally to continue until interest rates start to rise, which could squeeze valuations. Also on today's show, Brian Dress, director of research for Left Brain Investment Research, discusses Roku -- the firm's stock of the year in 2020 -- which has been working through some near-term troubles that have created a buying opportunity rather than a reason to bail out, and David Harden, chief investment officer at Summit Global Investments, talks low-volatility and factor investing, a love-hate relationship with Morningstar ratings and more in a wide-ranging Market Call.
Dan Zanger, chief technical strategist at ChartPattern.com, says that the stock market is the best and strongest he has seen since 1999 and he expects it to keep running through to the end of the year, but then he believes there will be a sell-off, a correction that takes the top off the market and helps it set a new base for further upside in 2022. Zanger says the market has plenty of energy and room to run so long as the Federal Reserve doesn't change policies and stop its momentum. Also on the show, Chuck discusses a wide range of stocks that he thinks are appropriate as gifts for children this holiday season or any time you are looking to teach youngsters about money, and we revisit a recent conversation with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, who says that investors with a value mindset need to look for 'undervalued growth companies and value companies that can grow.'
Brad Lamensdorf, editor of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF, says that while the market is at record levels, valuations are not so high that it's particularly easy to find shorts. In the Market Call segment, Lamensdorf discusses how it's a stockpicker's market, both for long investors and short-sellers, with rising indexes having masked a lot of individual opportunities. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief at Bankrate.com talks about implications from last week's economic reports, emerging markets and international fund manager Tunde Ojo from Harding Loevner discusses China and other foreign markets now, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts the Danger Zone spotlight back on EventBrite, the concert promoter that he says is wildly overvalued.
David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com, says that the seasonally strongest part of the year has arrived and the stock market is looking like it will hold to that seasonal tendency this year. He notes that while the market is overdue for a correction, there doesn't need to be a sharp sudden drop, because the market can correct in time -- moving sideways for longer -- rather than by price, a situation that he thinks will put a premium on stock-picking now. Keller wasn't the only guest optimistic about the near-term future, as Cliff Corso, president of Advisors Asset Management, says investors can continue to profit by not fighting the Fed as the central bank deals with inflation concerns and the changing economy. In The NAVigator segment, Matt Kence of the Aberdeen Credit Income Strategies Fund, discusses current opportunities in high-yield bonds and bank loans, and Rich Moroney of Horizon Investment Services -- the editor of both the Dow Theory Forecasts and Upside newsletters -- returns for the Market Call for the first time in two years to talk stocks.
Laura Geritz, chief executive officer at Rondure Global Advisors, says that she thinks the domestic stock market rally is late in its current cycle with inflation no longer feeling transitory, noting that she now believes it will take a significant interest rate hike of 1 percent or more to slow growth, but not ruling that kind of move out in the face of rising inflation. Geritz worries that China currently reminds her of Japan in the 1980s, building a bubble around real estate, which she says will have to be deflated carefully so that it doesn't crater global markets. Tom Lydon from ETF Trends.com also covers emerging markets with his pick for ETF of the Week, making a case to go off-trend and go bottom-fishing with high-yield foreign debt. Also on the show, Simon Zhen of MyBankTracker.com discusses how many people plan to spend more time doing holiday shopping than they spend managing their money, and Stephen Luongo of AIR Asset Management talks alternative investments into life settlements, and how they're not the shady worrisome product some people associate with old AM-radio ads.
Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors, says that value investors can't rely on the classic approaches but must instead seek out a mix of 'undervalued growth companies and value companies that can grow,' a more hybrid investment style that has been working even in times when traditional value investing has struggled. Further, he notes that investors should forego most bond holdings in favor of high-grade financial stocks, noting that he expects a decade of substantially rising dividends in the sector. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor for Investor's Business Daily, discusses how rising inflation has sapped economic optimism, and Chuck gives the results from his annual Halloween 'cash or candy' giveaway.
Karl Mills, president of Jurika, Mills and Keifer, says that investors should be looking for current market imbalances, watching for the shift that lies ahead, which will move them from growth to value stocks, from domestic to international markets, from large-cap to small-cap issues and more to stay ahead of changing winds that will make it harder for the market's recent success stories to keep going strong. Also on the show, Sean Cox of Gainbridge discusses how the firm is not only changing the way consumers buy and think about annuity products, but changing Money Life as the show's newest sponsor, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses the current state of retail store credit cards (think high interest rates and bad enticements), and John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses business-development companies, their prospects into 2022 and building a portfolio with them, including four BDCs he thinks are good buying opportunities despite varying distribution rates, discounts or premiums.
Freddy Garcia, vice president of Investments for Left Brain Wealth Management, says that investors who hire advisers to help manage their money need to get appropriate help picking and selecting stocks, bonds and mutual funds, rather than simply following cookie-cutter programs. Garcia says that many advisers provide 'planning,' without doing high-conviction investment selections, ultimately leading to a time when clients are unhappy because their broad financial plan isn't meeting their return expectations. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com highlights an equal-weighted index fund as his ETF of the Week, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com helps Chuck answer a listener's question, and we revisit a recent chat with Herb Greenberg, senior editor of Empire Financial Research.
After two days lost to power outage at Chuck's studio, the show returns with John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, reminding investors to keep their eyes on the prize for their ultimate goals and not let volatility and downturns shake them out of the market, turning paper losses into real pain. Petrides says his team has been in a buy-the-dip mentality since the start of the pandemic and that hasn't changed as the recovery has played out, particularly because the alternatives to stock investments are unattractive right now. Also on the show, Sri Reddy of Principal Financial Group discusses the habits that successful savers have exhibited during the pandemic, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com helps Chuck answer a listener's tax question, and we revisit a recent chat with Michael Kelly of Pinebridge Investments.
Two very different interviews come to the same kind of conclusion on today's show, with Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, noting that inflation and other concerns aren't hurting corporate profits, and those strong profits are helping to improve valuations, setting up the market's next solid move upward, and Avi Gilburt of the Elliott Wave Trader saying he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 to move to nearly 5,000 before a pullback that sets up a big move that should get the index to the 6,000 range by the beginning of 2023. Also on the show, Greg McBride of BanRate.com talks about some good news -- mixed in with the usual bad -- in the site's annual survey on banking fees, ATM expenses, overdraft charges and more, and Gabriela Herculano, chief executive officer at iClima Earth, discusses emissions-free ESG investing in the Market Call.
Bill Schultheis, author of the landmark financial book 'The CoffeeHouse Investor,' discusses how the simple rules of his popular effort -- involving diversification, minimizing costs and saving hard -- remain the key to success in a world caught up in meme stocks, cryptocurrencies and other shiny, sparkly financial products. Schultheis talks about how investors can stay simple yet successful now. In other interviews today: David Trainer of New Constructs puts the Rivian IPO in the Danger Zone, noting that the electric vehicle's expected market valuation is more than six times higher than a level he considers realistic-but-optimistic, Alison Carnie talks about an Edward Jones, survey showing that people know the importance of end-of-life planning but that doesn't mean they're doing it, and author Jonathan Hillman discusses 'The Digital Silk Road: China's Quest to Wire the World and Win the Future.'
Frank Holmes, chief executive at U.S. Global Investors, says that the big trade he's making now involves gold, which he says are cheap relative to technology stocks, which are raising dividends and which are poised for a big mean-reversion snap-back. Holmes -- who also is chairman at Hive Blockchain -- also discusses crypto currencies, the new bitcoin-related ETF, the broad market and more. Also on the show: Larry Holzenthaler of Nuveen discusses why investors should diversify income-producing holdings to include floating-rate loans, which he says offer equal returns to high-yield bonds but with less risk. Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel gives his technical outlook, which he overlays on the reasonable fundamental picture he sees right now, and John Barr, portfolio manager of the Needham Growth and Aggressive Growth funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Tom Lydon, chief executive officer at ETFTrends.com, says that the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF launched this week will be one of the biggest new ETF launches of all time and is worth the hype, even though the fund is built around bitcoin futures rather than tied directly to the cryptocurrency. Lydon explains how the new fund works and the prospects for new and different crypto funds coming out of the registration pipeline soon. Also on the show, author Becky Hall discusses 'The Art of Enough' and building a balanced life, LendingTree's chief credit analyst, Matt Schulz, discusses their latest take on retail credit cards and why consumers will sign up for less of them this year and what they will do instead, and Darren Chervitz, manager, of the Jacob Discovery Fund, talks bottoms-up, growth-oriented stock-picking in the Market Call.
Marshall Stocker, co-director of the emerging market team for Eaton Vance Management, says that in the face of global inflation and a waning pandemic, emerging markets countries are addressing issues in a more conventional or orthodox manner than developed countries, which he sees as bullish as it should help those countries to sidestep the fallout from a decade of zero-rate policies from the last decade. It has emerging markets, Stocker says, looking much more like a traditional asset class and less like a volatile new frontier than ever before. In another Big Interview, Gregg Fisher, portfolio manager, Quent Capital discusses global small-cap investing and the growing opportunities he sees in nascent companies. There are also two different surveys discussed on today's show, first with Eric Wagatha, head of consumer life for GfK discussing how Americans are putting off major life decisions post-pandemic, and then with Michelle Delgado of Clever Real Estate on how the housing market is so hot that even haunted houses are moving, and how homebuyers find a lot of things to be more frightening than ghosts.
Willie Delwiche, investment strategist for All Star Charts, says that the messy, sloppy range-bound market that we've seen since February is going to continue sideways for a while but ultimately will resolve itself to the upside, confirming a consolidation that is healthy for the long term. Delwiche believes the next rally will be led by different types of stocks -- financials instead of tech stocks, mid- and small-caps instead of large-caps -- plus commodities and more. Also on the show, Amy Arnott of Morningstar discusses the firm's annual 'Mind the Gap' research showing how badly investors perform relative to the mutual funds they are buying, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors helps Chuck answer some questions that dig into the inside baseball of closed-end investing, and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com gives his tax tips on moves investors might want to make before the year ends.
Jared Bibler, author of 'Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con' discusses the collapse of the frontier market's economy and market in 2008, a chapter in financial history largely unnoticed in the US because America was going through its own financial crisis, caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Bibler notes that the three Icelandic banks that imploded at that time were -- to the small country's economy -- ' the size of 300 Lehman Brothers' representing about 90 percent of Iceland's stock market as a result of stock buy-backs that are similar-yet-different to the ones Americans see happening domestically every day. Also on the show, Ted Pulsifer discusses a Piplsay.com study on how buy-now/pay-later programs are becoming increasingly popular, which may also be making them financially hazardous, investment analyst Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund in 'the Danger Zone," and Chuck discusses the latest twist in his annual 'Cash or candy' Halloween experiment.
Market strategist Larry McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that with inflation holding at a higher trajectory than the last 10 years, investors need to move away from growth stocks and head towards commodities and hard-asset companies plus value stocks moving forward. In another Big Interview segment, real estate expert Brian Icenhower of Icenhower Coaching and Consulting says the nation isn't facing a housing bubble -- which will burst and dissipate -- so much as a housing crisis, that will dramatically impact home prices for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, investment strategist Matt Harris of Aperture Research Partners talks technical analysis and the current range-bound market, and Sam Brothwell of Energy Income Partners discusses energy infrastructure investing and why renewable energy doesn't make legacy energy stocks a bad investment.
Veteran journalist and market observer Herb Greenberg -- now senior editor at Empire Financial Research -- says that investors have a distorted view about returns, fueled by the market's post-pandemic rise, that has resulted in a loss of selling discipline. 'Everybody thinks they are entitled to these gazillion percent returns,' he says, and they have lost sight of what it means to have a 'good investment.' As a result, he fears that 'A lot of people will learn a very hard lesson who probably can't afford to learn that lesson.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, of ETFTrends.com names an entire suite of funds that are built to give investors more control his 'ETF of the Week,' and Gary Black of The Future Fund Active ETF talks Tesla and other game-changing stocks in the Market Call.
Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that bond rates have been moving higher because investors expect central banks to raise interest rates as a response to inflation. He worries, however, that the central banks are ill-equipped to combat inflation caused by supply-chain problems rather than inflation as an offshoot of a normal economic cycle. That could create stagflation, a situation when inflation is high while growth is low, which would be bad for the global economy. Also on the show, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Investment Research talks about energy as an income play and identifies a stock, bond, preferred stock and ETF worthy of consideration, Chance Finucane of Oxbow Advisors discusses stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck pays tribute to his friend -- and our guest at the end of every quarter -- Michael Falk.
Warren Pierson, deputy chief investment officer for the Baird Funds, says that while the Federal Reserve initially suggested that 'transitory' inflation would be here for a matter of months, it's now a much longer definition as the pace of recovery is slower than expected. Still, Pierson says that inflation will abate and eventually give the Fed what it has been hoping for, a level slightly north of 2 percent. Pierson also gives his outlook for fixed income -- covering virtually every bond type from mortgage-backed securities to junk bonds -- in a wide-ranging chat. In the Book Interview, author Eswar Prasad discusses 'The Future of Money,' and his expectation that the world will become a cashless society sooner than later, but not necessarily in ways that cryptocurrency experts expect. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com talks about a survey showing that more than 40 percent of consumers would pay more for flights and/or hotels that only allowed customers vaccinated against Covid-19, and John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance helps Chuck answer a listener's question about whether closed-end funds are appropriate for younger investors and taxable accounts.
Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the global economic recovery has changed its shape -- going from the V-recovery that many people hoped for -- to something more gradual but longer-lasting, largely following the path of vaccination around the world. Kelly also discusses how he is responding to the challenges of a low-yield/rising-inflation fixed-income market. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs identifies five companies that he expects to have big misses in the upcoming earnings season, Doug Milnes, head of data analysis at MoneyGeek.com, discusses some of the dichotomies between consumer optimism and behavior, and top-down investor/trader Leon Wilfan talks stocks in the Market Call.
Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that while investors traditionally turn to gold to act as a hedge against inflation, precious metals haven't been as good of a hedge as stocks and other assets. Millman says the market seems to be buying the narrative that inflation is transitory, noting that money has been flowing out of precious metals at a time when most people would expect demand to be high; it has also limited gold's effectiveness in these inflationary, rising-rate times. In The NAVigator segment, Eric Chadwick, president at Flaherty & Crumrine, says that preferred securities are the 'sweet spot' in this market, offering relatively attractive yields without adding significant risk to a portfolio. Also on the show, Catherine Golladay discusses how workers are more stressed about their finances now, but also more optimistic that they are moving in the right directions, and the Market Call is a rebroadcast of a recent chat with Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management.
Historian Kyle Harper, author of 'Plagues Upon the Earth; Disease and the Course of Human History,' says in the Book Interview today that the coronavirus is just the latest worldwide disease phenomenon and that those past events have spurred positives like developments and negatives like inequality. He discusses the outcomes from history and how current events will impact society and the markets for years. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a brand new fund with an eye on frontier markets his ETF of the Week, Bruce Monrad of Northeast Investors Trust talks the bond market and the hunt for yield in a rising rate/inflation market, and Chuck answers a listener's question about dividend investing.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says that the economy has turned the corner from recovery to expansion, and says that concerns over slowing growth miss the point that growth rates will continue to be well above historic rates. Brusuelas says that the Delta variant and its ability to disrupt global supply chains remains the biggest worry for the global economy moving forward, but he notes that he expects talk of inflation and supply chain issues to subside by early 2022; meanwhile, he expects the economy to be growing at a 5 percent clip in the second half of the year, more than double historic norms, meaning that any slowdown is mostly about changing the shape and duration of the rebound, not ending it. Also on the show, Ryan Kelley, chief investment officer at the Hennessy Funds, talks about investing in the utilities and energy sector at a time when prices have been popping as demand rebounds, and Chuck talks about determining who you can trust for your financial advice.
Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, says the market's frothy September has pushed it to where he's headed for cash, at least for the short term, avoiding what he thinks will be a short downturn leading into a sideways market and ultimately a buying opportunity, as he expects the market to rebound into a strong bull run that could last six to eight months. At that point, however, Vermeulen says the market's years-long rally could be running out of steam and on its last legs. Also on the show, David Meyer, president of the Public Investors Advocate Bar Association talks about why consumers are never paid in 30 percent of the arbitration victories against rogue brokers, Washington Post columnist Allan Sloan discusses the debt-ceiling debate's negative impact on the bond market and borrowing -- even if it ultimately gets passed -- and Chuck answers listener questions about gold and bitcoin, and selling stocks.
Syed Ejaz, financial policy analyst for Consumer Reports, joins Chuck to talk about the magazine's report released last week which showed that popular apps providing access to credit scores may not offer all of the benefits users expect and come burdened with hidden costs. Ejaz says that, aside from some measure of convenience, consumers would mostly be better off keeping tabs on their credit reports and credit scores on their own. Also on the show, author Dorie Clark, talks about 'The Long Game: How to Be a Long-Term Thinker in a Short-Term World,' David Trainer of New Constructs says a very hot stock is headed for trouble and belongs in the Danger Zone, and Justin Carbonneau, vice president and partner at Validea.com and Validea Capital Management, @jjcarbonneau
Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that the long-term trend for the stock market and for nearly every sector still looks strong, but he says the relationship between stocks and bonds needs fixing, which is why he expects a technical correction to give the market some time to breathe and digest the action of the last two years. De Kempenaer expects limited upside potential for a while, but says the downside could be a long slow sideways move or a steeper-but-shorter downturn. Also on the show, Bryce Doty of Sit Investment Associates says that a diversified portfolio of closed-end funds can make it possible to safely stretch for more yield, financial planner and blogger Jessica Weaver discusses how wasted time may actually be the biggest money loser for most people, and Gerry Frigon of Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group -- who joins Chuck at the end of every quarter to discuss the market, investing and his personal battle with Lou Gehrig's Disease -- says that investors need to recognize that the greatest obstacle to their long-term financial success isn't the market and the economy, but the man in the mirror. 'Behavior,' he says in a wide-ranging interview, ' is more important than your investments,' noting that you will 'cause the greatest amount of error in any decision-making process you can use or design.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a brand new, tech-oriented fund from Goldman Sachs his ETF of the Week, and Bryan Lee of Blue Zone Wealth Advisors talks about finding stocks with recurring, repetitive business models -- particularly on small-ticket items -- in the Market Call.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says supply chain issues, Covid variants and other factors aren't going away, which will leave inflation higher heading into 2022, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to balance interest rates and inflation with changing global growth. Folts says that investors need to respond to the potential trouble by being better diversified outside of the United States, trying to generate more return without taking on too much risk. Also on the show, Brian Dress, director of research for Left Brain Investment Research, discusses preferred securities as a high-yield alternative in today's low-rate market, Zack Gipson, managing director of digital investor solutions for Charles Schwab talks about a survey released Tuesday that shows how investors are more reliant on technology than ever but still need human touch on the most important planning decisions, and author Christopher Mims discusses his new book, 'Arriving Today: From Factory to Front Door -- Why Everything Has Changed About How and What We Buy.'
Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments, says that if inflation were to run at 3 percent or more for all of next year, it would be a significant challenge for both stock and bond markets 'and there may not be that many safe places to hide,' but while he sees that potential danger, he believes that the beginning of 2022 is likely to be where inflation peaks near 5 percent and then settles down to levels that allow for continued growth. It will be slower growth for both the economy and the market, Weisman warns, but still positive. Also on the show, Eric Noe of Business.com discusses a survey about how roughly seven out of eight investors would like cryptocurrency made available in their retirement-savings plan, a discussion that may seem particularly ironic after Chuck opens the show with the tale of @MrGoxx, the cryptocurrency-trading hamster (no, he's not kidding); Chuck also takes a listener's question about automatic reinvestment plans for ETFs, and Chris Natividad, chief investment officer at Equbot talks about using artificial intelligence as a means of selecting stocks in the Market Call.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager for Sit Investment Associates, says that current causes for investor concern -- the debt ceiling, inflation and more -- are creating volatility and buying opportunities in a market that's on solid long-term footing as it continues to reopen and recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Also on the show, Kyle Guske from research firm New Constructs explains in the Danger Zone why the Allbirds IPO won't fly right from the start, University of Arkansas professor Mervin Jebaraj discusses the latest outlook survey from the National Association for Business Economics and, in the Market Call, Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management talks about finding growth stocks at reasonable prices given current market conditions.
Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the market appears to have shaken off current events in China that were creating downward pressure, and it could soon be back to flirting with record highs and resuming its long climb. Fox noted that his big worry is less about anything he sees in the charts and more about the potential for the economy to have surprisingly slow growth. Also on the show, Erik Herzfeld of Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors says that investors are sacrificing returns for liquidity when they choose traditional mutual funds and ETFs instead of closed-end funds, financial adviser Vidal Peoples of Strategies for Wealth discusses taking a fiscal physical now, and Sneha Jose, director of behavioral finance for Stifel discusses investor biases and how individuals and their hard-wired thinking frequently short-circuit the best-laid investment plans.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that markets are facing some resistance in September after seven consecutive months of gains, and he expects that increased choppiness to continue into October, but his long-term outlook remains highly constructive, noting that economic growth from the recovery is being pushed out into 2022 and '23. Sanchez believes that we're still 'in the first half of this economic cycle over the next two or three years where economic growth could be north of 3 percent and closer to 4;' that would represent economic growth that is more than double pre-pandemic levels. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a small, new thematic fund his ETF of the Week, saying he has big expectations and hopes for the fund, and Chuck answers a listener's question about whether and how to factor small investment positions and ideas into a portfolio. And in the Market Call, Mike Larson, senior analyst at Weiss Ratings, talks about 'safe-money' stocks in today's complicated environment.
Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the economic recovery pace in the United States is ahead of most foreign countries and is likely to stay that way for a year or more, but his long-term thinking suggests that changing globalization will use more robotics and artificial intelligence and more to localize production and make it that different countries move through cycles on their own pace, rather than as part of a large group. Also on the show, Francisco Bido of F/m Acceleration discusses in the Market Call how using a quantitative approach mixed with some fundamentals can find stocks poised for solid future growth, Francesca Ortegren from Clever Real Estate covers their latest survey showing an alarmingly large percentage of Americans have taken on or added to their credit card debt since the start of the pandemic, and Chuck answers a listener's question about some famous funds whose best days may be in the past.
Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, says that Coivd-19 and its variants remain the biggest issue facing the global economy right now because it has slowed the U.S. economy more than expected and it continues to drive expectations lower, at a time when rising inflation is a concern that could put a further damper on growth. Despite the uncertainty, Rick remains largely positive on the economy, provided that inflation spikes remain, as he expects, relatively short-lived. Also on the show, Gal Wettstein from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College discusses how long most people have the ability to continue working, Chuck takes a listener's question about why guests sometimes celebrate bad investment ideas, and Jack Murphy, chief investment officer at Easterly Investment Partners looks for contrarian value investments in the Market Call.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that new research from the firm shows that three-quarters of the Standard and Poor's 500 stocks have misstated earnings, and that 215 of those companies have overstated their profits by more than 10 percent. He cites Fortive Corp., which shows reported earnings of $4.62 per share, but with core earnings of 99 cents per share; as a result, Trainer says the $74 stock has an economic book value of roughly $21 per share, making a fair value somewhere between those extremes. Also on the show, Jacob Channel of LendingTree on how many renters believe the housing market has priced them out, permanently, Lawrence Shapiro talks about his book 'When Bad Thinking Happens to Good People' and, in the Market Call, Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors discusses ETF investing.
Niladri Mukherjee, head of portfolio strategy at Merrill Lynch Bank of America Private Bank, thinks that equities will grind higher from current levels, but that progress will be based on a 'different playbook' driven by rising corporate earnings and narrower moves that force investors to dig into the numbers -- to 'get micro' looking at valuation opportunities -- rather than relying on the rising tide of indexes to carry them forward. Also on the show, Steve Seedhouse, managing director of biotechnology equity research for Raymond James discusses the long-term impacts of Covid on biotech stocks, noting that the virus has become endemic -- it will be with us indefinitely, requiring treatments in the future to cover any and all variants -- and that status changes the prospects for businesses responding to it. He also covers the emerging biotech processes that he believes have significant potential. Also on the show, James Thom, manager of the closed-end India Fund, discusses the country's remarkable growth rate during recovery and the opportunities it presents, and Danny Sullivan, director for risk for Verus Investments, talks about how investors need to consider inflation in terms of the danger it holds to their portfolio rather than as simply a threat to the market.
Rob Isbitts, chief investment strategist at Sungarden Investment Publishing, says that with the yield on the Standard and Poor's 500 is as low as it has been in years, investors trying to find good buys on dividend stocks are looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack. Isbitts, who has developed a new investment factor he calls YARP -- for 'yield at a reasonable price' -- says that yield-oriented investors are taking on too much risk for the distributions they're getting right now, a situation that's unlikely to change until the market goes through some sort of correction. Also on the show, Paul Dilda of BMO Harris Bank discusses BMO's Real Financial Progress Index and 'the knowing-doing gap,' where consumers know what they should so but aren't actually getting it done, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to China for his ETF of the Week, and Benjamin Bailey of the Praxis Mutual Funds talks about fixed-income investing and the economy in The Big Interview.
Noland Langford, chief executive at Left Brain Investment Research, says that investors must adjust and deal with the current impact of inflation and continuing low rates, noting that '5 is the new 8,' and that investors may struggle to find good ways to generate a 5 percent yield. To meet that standard, Langord says he has gotten both more aggressive and more selective in using high-yield corporate bonds and preferred securities, and talks about a few examples that meet his investment criteria now. Also on the show, best-selling author Ben Mezrich discusses his latest book, ‘The Antisocial Network: The GameStop Short Squeeze and the Ragtag Group of Amateur Traders That Brought Wall Street to Its Knees,' and says that the meme-stock fad started by that famous episode is not going away, and Scott Bennett, founder of Invest With Rules, puts his rules-based philosophy to the test in the Market Call.
Jan van Eck, chief executive officer at VanEck, says that government policy 'determines the weather' for markets and policy has been 'insanely supportive' of markets and while that is changing slowly he would suggest that investors have no reason to feel nervous while the Federal Reserve continues to support the market. van Eck talks about three multi-year investable trends, starting with the continued low interest rates and how they encourage people to keep borrowing now, but extending to the transition to renewable energy and then how blockchain technologies will change financial services. Also on the show, Simon Zhen discusses a recent MyBankTracker.com survey on who Americans learned their financial lessons from, Rosetta Bryson of Simple Trader Pro talks about how the market's technicals show fairly smooth sailing ahead, and Josh Duitz of the Aberdeen Standard Global Infrastructure Income fund talks infrastructure stocks in the Market Call.
It's a wide-ranging show today with author Alec Ross, discussing 'The Raging 2020s: Companies, Countries, People - and the Fight for Our Future,' and whether the times ahead look more like a Star Trek universe or the landscape of Mad Max. In the Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs sees through the popularity of the Warby Parker IPO to discuss how the stock may be worth no more than 20 percent of its anticipated opening price, and in the Market Call, Jonathan Browne of Robinson Capital talks closed-end funds. Also, Chuck answers a question about a legislative proposal that would combat tax cheats, but which might also feel like an invasion of privacy.
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that technical analysis shows that the market at record highs is hiding the fact that parts of the market are not working, and that a number of indexes and indicators -- with the notable exception of the Standard and Poor's 500 -- are flat or struggling. 'I don't see that the rising tide is raising all boats,' Kahn says. 'I don't think the tide is rising.' In the Big Interview, Richard Smith of The RISK Rituals newsletter -- chief executive at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles -- talks about current market movements and how investors can better deal with risk. Michael Ordonez of Thornburg Investment Management, says in The NAVigator that the difficult environment for income-oriented investors, coupled with regulatory changes allowing for a more consumer-friendly structure led to the firm creating its first-ever closed-end fund, and that he expects more funds to take up the new structure. And in the Market Call, Andrey Kutuzov, portfolio manager for Seven Canyons Advisors, discusses small-cap growth investing around the globe.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that we're seeing 'the best financial conditions that we've seen in decades right now, and earnings are off the charts,' and while he sees some potential for change due to inflation and interest rate pressures, he says that investors should be listening to the stock market and taking advantage of the good conditions while they last. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com issues a warning for investors in target-date funds and ETFs about the potential for their picks to be less effective in the future than they have been over the last decade or more, Ed Carson of Investors Business Daily discusses a sudden shift towards pessimism among American investors, and best-selling author John U. Bacon discusses his latest book and the lessons to be learned from his time leading 'America's Worst High School Hockey Team.'
Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the global markets are positioned well for the future provided that they can avoid significant trauma caused by inflation, and he is worried that the pressures causing current inflation may be more persistent than policymakers expect. If pricing pressures linger and are not transitory -- and Kalish uses shelter costs as a possible example -- they may not show up in inflation measures for more than a year, but they will impact the market long-term. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey on how people are feeling and responding to the pinch of higher prices, we revisit a recent chat with Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, and Chuck answers a question about investing in U.S. savings bonds for children and grandchildren.
Scott Helfstein, executive director of thematic investing at ProShares, says that the economic re-opening from the pandemic is not some sort of rewind, and that to move forward investors should give up on what he described as five fallacies, including the long-held debate about the growth versus value styles of investing. Helfstein also says that investors should recognize that investors should not expect government influence to cool off when the pandemic ends, says that the global supply chain will be a protracted problem and more. Also on the show, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Harmony Healthcare on the reasons for the country's declining birth rate and why many of the issues are financial, and in an extended Market Call interview, Dan Wiener of Adviser Investments and The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors delves deeply into the world of Vanguard funds and ETFs.
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that the economy has entered an economic expansion phase, and notes that these growth phases tend to last a while. She expects this expansion to run for years, driven by fiscal policy and helped along by changes in the workplace, productivity and inventories that have eliminated some of the classic economic impediments to protracted growth runs. Also on the show, Daniel Wildermuth of the Wildermuth Endowment Fund discusses how private equity investments have weathered the pandemic -- and outperformed the broad stock market over the longer term -- Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com says that the technical indicators show that the market has room to run higher right now, and Julie Kutasov of Kayne Anderson Rudnick covers 'quality' small- and mid-cap investing in the Market Call.
Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle, says that the muni market has had a good summer, but got a bit softer in August and is likely to stay that way while waiting to see how government infrastructure plans and any potential tax increases play out. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com -- for the second week in a row -- makes a classic fund that now is available as an exchange-traded fund his ETF of the Week; one difference this week is that the fund is a cornerstone in Chuck's portfolio. Also on the show, Barry Metzger of Charles Schwab talks about the latest Traders Pulse survey, which looks at the sentiment of investors who are making at least three dozen transactions per year, and in the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses his 'beat and raise' strategy for buying stocks with momentum.
Andrew Foster, chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners, says that forecasts for China to become the world's largest economy -- surpassing the United States -- are based on overblown economic assumptions. He says China is revising numbers, which will put 'a substantial dampener on growth;' instead of growth rates projected at 6 percent, Foster says to expect economic deceleration that puts 'the point where China surpasses the US more in doubt' or much further out. Also on the show, Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, discusses how the pandemic helped to prove a number of key economic theories, which should help guide the way to what happens next, and Madhu Chaudhary, investment analyst, talks about the growth potential of Upstart Holdings, an online lending platform firm that uses artificial intelligence rather than classic credit scores to determine risk-worthy borrowers.
Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton, and the head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, says that the current math makes it hard for the market to double again the way it has in the last year, so he is expecting it to take another eight or nine years to see the next market double. That means investors should expect single-digit gains, which Dover thinks is reasonable given current market conditions, uncertainty over inflation, Covid-19, interest rates and more. Also on the show, Michele Schneider of MarketGauge.com talks technical analysis as the market keeps flirting with record highs, Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, talks stock in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses -- and plays excerpts from -- his most recent telephone run-in with the law.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that the stock market is likely to follow the growth of corporate profits, which bodes well for heady gains over the next year or two, despite inflation and other concerns that will increase volatility and potentially cause setbacks. Luschini says that since grizzly and protracted bear markets rarely occur outside of a recession -- and with recession seeming like a remote possibility in the next 12 to 24 months -- investors should be prepared to stay the course but ride out the bumps. Also on the show, John Smallwood of Smallwood Wealth Management talks about factoring inflationary pressure into long-term portfolio decisions, law professor Robin Feldman discusses how the U.S. patent system currently is incentivizing failure and causing higher prices in health care, and David Trainer of New Constructs talks about how operating earnings measures are actually distorting the financial picture of companies like Marathon Petroleum and eBay.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, expects reasonable growth for the economy and the stock market into next year, but notes that depends on the Federal Reserve successfully managing interest rates, and Covid variants not re-igniting the pandemic to where consumers shut down even if the economy remains open. She expects secular growth and defensive stocks to be the outperformers as the economy moderates and returns more to normal; cyclical stocks and small-cap companies will see their recent outperformance end closer to the end of the year as growth slows. In the weekly NAVigator segment, John Cole Scott, founder/executive chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance and chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses how the right mix of issues in these vexing low-rate times can create 'synthetic bonds' that deliver above-average income to fuel investors' lives. Also on the show, technical analyst Michael Sincere, author of 'Understanding Options,' says he would not be surprised to see a market reversal -- potentially as big as a 10 percent correction -- in the next three months, and Dave Mazza of Direxion talks about the new ETFs the firm is cooking up and the investment themes he sees as interesting opportunities now.
Scott Kimball, head of US fixed income at BMO Global Asset Management says investors need to recognize that the Federal Reserve is taking away emergency provisions, which should not threaten risk markets the way they feel threatened right now. With the Fed remaining cautious, Kimball says that inflation is likely to remain elevated, but not get to the runaway level. As a result, he expects that 2022 will prove that the inflationary talk right now has been early. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com calls out a classic fund that has now been newly repacked in an exchange-traded wrapper as his ETF of the Week, Ken Tumin of DepositAccounts.com discusses how a majority of Americans would be happy to never go back to a physical bank again, and the Market Call revisits a recent chat with Ivana Delevska of SPEAR Invest.
Jae Yoon, chief investment officer at New York Life Investment Management, says that he is worried about how much higher the market can go from here with valuations at or near record highs, but he believes investors can be confident about investing globally and adding emerging markets and developed Europe for growth. Yoon believes the 10-year Treasury bond will be in the 1.5 to 2 percent range by the end of this year or early next year, and says investors need to react to that, tilting towards value and small-cap stocks and shying away from technology stocks. He says that how the rate and inflation picture play out will decide the market's ability to continue rising and avoiding trouble. Also on the show, author and blogger Shannon Bush talks about 'Redefining Rich' and changing the way you value things in your life, we revisit a recent chat on technical analysis with Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, and Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com joins Chuck to answer an audience member's question about how and why treating their credit seriously and doing the right things hasn't resulted in a near-perfect credit score.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says the recovery has created a solid foundation for the market to do well, despite increased choppiness that may be fueled in part by the shifting numbers and the strained year-over-year comparisons. With the heightened volatility, Fernandez says investors need to double down on their diligence, becoming more particular about individual securities and looking for solid balance sheets that can withstand volatility over the rest of the year and into 2022. Also on the show, author David Sumpter talks about 'The Ten Equations That Rule the World,' and Chuck answers three questions from audience members with varied concerns about their portfolios.
Broan Bollinger, president of Simply Safe Dividends, says that the stock market's rise to record highs has created challenging valuations for income-oriented stocks, but he maintains that there are issues that are steady, boring names that have missed out on much of the rise and remain reasonable values today. In the Market Call, Bollinger discusses the importance of dividend safety and the relative certainty of the income stream in income-generating stocks. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent survey showing how few Americans are taking advantage of low mortgage rates to refinance, in many cases because they don't know the rate they are paying now, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits and reiterates three Danger Zone picks in DID, COMP and TSLA, noting that two of those selections have been successful while the most famous third selection has continued to defy gravity. And the Book Interview goes 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio,' with the book's co-author Stephen Foerster discussing investing legends who got it right and who are strategic role models for millions of investors.
Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist at The Oxford Club, says that lower-for-longer interest rates and bond yields that have had investors turning to dividend-paying stocks have helped push valuations to where investors are having a tough time getting good payouts, and that they might want to cast a jaundiced eye to investments where the yield is out of line with the market right now because companies that are unblemished are trading at premium levels, so the only bargains have some warts to worry about. Also on the show, Roxanna Islam of Alerian and S-Network Global Indexes discusses why closed-end fund distribution rates have been so high, even as most yields in investing are down, Kamaron McNair of MagnifyMoney.com talks about a survey in which a surprising number of respondents admit regrets over impulsive behavior -- including trading while intoxicated -- and Rob Lutts of Cabot Wealth Management talks about stocks and building a sound portfolio in the Market Call.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that gold is where investors go to preserve capital when they think inflation is coming, and the underperformance of gold would suggest that investors think that rising consumer prices are temporary. Winmill notes that there has been inflation in housing and health care and in other key areas, as well as in commodities like aluminum, copper and cobalt - but not in precious metals. Still, he says that gold miners are attractive now as they are appreciating faster than equities and beyond inflation right now. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a small-cap fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Mike Brown of Breeze discusses trends in voluntary insurance coverage and which groups are not protecting themselves against catastrophe, particularly in healthcare. And in the Market Call, Jordan Waldrep of Truemark Investment management talks low-volatility dividend investing.
Michael Power, strategist at NinetyOne, says that stock market valuations are stretched and bond yields are unsatisfying, but investors have no place else to go but the domestic markets. He expects a sell-off and downturn, but to end quickly. Ultimately, he believes investors will like the progress made over the next year, even though they will have to suffer through heightened volatility to reach that good news. Also on the show, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth Management discusses financial advisers who don't or won't put individual stocks into client portfolios, and Doug Cartwright, portfolio manager of the Buffalo Early Stage Growth (BUFOX ) talks small- and mid-cap investing in the Market Call.
Economist William Silber says that when investors have downside protection and the potential for limited losses against big possible gains, it is time to be a gambler and to be a little reckless. Silber whose new book out this week is 'The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business,' discusses the times when gambles and risk-taking make sense, though he notes that most of those speculations are more for entertainment than for building wealth. Also on the show, Rita Assaf of Fidelity Investments, discusses the firm's latest survey of parents on students on changing college-savings and planning, Chuck answers a question about the appropriateness of default choices in retirement plans, and Ivana Delevska, founder of SPEAR Invest, talks industrials and industrial-technology stocks in the Market Call.
John Blank, chief equity strategist and chief economist for Zacks Investment Research, says that valuations are high, but that the Standard and Poor's 500 is buttressed against a downturn by its biggest members -- the famed FAANG stocks plus Microsoft and one or two others -- that have price/earnings ratios of higher than 25, higher than the index p/e of 20. 'We have never had seven companies make up a quarter of [the index],' Blank says, 'and we have never had those seven companies driving 25 or 30 percent annual earnings increases.' Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about back-to-school spending this year, and how more than one-third of all parents are feeling pressured to overspend this year, David Trainer of research firm New Constructs takes a bite of Beyond Meat and chews on the hot stock in the Danger Zone, and Tony Minopoli, president/chief investment officer at Knights of Columbus Asset Advisors makes his debut in the Market Call, talking stocks and stock-picking.
Technical analyst Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says that he is generally bullish about the market right now, and that it 'would take a lot' to make him move to the short side and bet against the market. Instead, he anticipates a strong market move to the upside and says investors should be moving money aggressively to take advantage of buying opportunities. Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence discusses the current state of closed-end fund consolidations and how two ongoing deals aren't particularly good for shareholders, and yet those individual owners have mostly allowed the deals to continue. And in the Market Call, Sandy Villere III of the Villere Funds talks about how he is maintaining balance -- and holding a little more cash than normal -- given current market conditions.
Zvi Schreiber, author of 'Money, Going Out of Style: The story of money and the mystery of its demise,' says that people are getting more money than ever but aren't moving it along and pushing it through the economy, opting instead to use money in speculative ways through investing, cryptocurrency and more, all of which has the potential to be economically destabilizing. He explains how dubious uses of money aren't providing economic value. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a dividend-oriented issue that converted from a traditional fund into an exchange-traded fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck explains what a dead-cat bounce is, and Pouya David Yadegar, founder of Prime Opportunities Investment Group talks stocks in the Market Call.
Anu Gaggar, global investment strategist for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that bank stocks -- mostly out of favor since the financial crisis of 2008 and hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic -- are showing signs that their strong recent recovery has legs despite the threats posed by potential hikes in inflation and interest rates. Gaggar notes that since the market bottomed in March 2020, banks have outperformed the Standard and Poor's 500 by over 25 percent, adding that the risk controls put in place during the pandemic should pay off now as balance sheets across the industry have improved. Also on the show, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses how the pandemic has affected workers' savings and habits, Chuck takes a question about managing required minimum distributions from an IRA, and Peter Tuz, chief executive officer at Chase Investment Counsel, says in the Market Call that while he sees the potential for choppy/down markets for the rest of the year, there's still no place he'd rather put his money.
Giorgio Caputo, senior fund manager at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, says that investors aren't being paid enough for duration or credit risk in their bond holdings, which is why the firm is leaning more toward equities to generate income and protect against the possibility of rising rates. Caputo says the equity allocation needs both companies that play defense against the current economic cycle, the potential for inflation and the spectre of rising rates. In the first interview today, Kerry Pechter, editor and publisher of Retirement Income Journal, discusses a crisis he sees brewing in the life insurance and annuity industry based on the 'Bermuda Triangle Strategy' being used by some companies to shift/reduce risk while goosing returns and/or buying back shares. Andf in the 'Book Interview,' venture capitalist Steven Hoffman talks about 'The Five Forces That Change Everything.'
David Trainer, president and founder of New Constructs, put Pinterest and Zendesk back in the 'Danger Zone,' noting that recent earnings misses for the companies could be what triggers the decline he has been expecting. Trainer says Pinterest has a downside of more than 50 percent, and that Zendesk is even worse at over 80 percent, though he notes the companies have survived previous troubles to remain at lofty valuations. Also on the show, Ram Subramanian of Discover discusses a survey showing how the pandemic made Americans realize how badly they are undersaved, Angel Williams, author of 'Finding Your Treasure,' talks about how to turn garbage into profits, and we rebroadcast a recent interview with Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
Rick Schmidt, portfolio manager for Harding Loevner, says that investors may have a lot of macro worries -- from rising inflation and interest rates to coronavirus, the economy and more -- but he describes the big picture as being like the weather: 'We don't think we can predict it beyond a couple of days, but it's not silly to look out the window before you go outside. If it's raining, put up an umbrella ... But I'm not going to predict what's going to happen a week from now and try to invest on it.' Schmidt says that if you look beyond the headlines, there are plenty of promising investments with solid fundamentals available at reasonable prices. Also on the show, energy fund manager Brian Kessens of Tortoise Ecofin discusses the sharp rebound and future prospects for the energy space, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for BankRate.com, discusses the unemployment/jobs picture and its bigger meaning for the rest of the year, and Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research for CFRA, talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Markus Schomer, chief economist at Pinebridge Investments, says in the Big Interview that worries over rising inflation and interest rates are significantly overblown, noting that the shortages behind price hikes should mostly be resolved by the year's end, and adding that there are no rate hikes in the Federal Reserves 'foreseeable future,' because the central bankers can't achieve their jobs/employment targets in a rising rate environment. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com highlights a new exchange-traded fund that is a pure play on companies mining and developing uses for cryptocurrencies, and Andy Braun of the Pax Large Cap fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, says the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index -- which overall was down again in the facing of concerns about rising inflation -- highlights the difference between investors and non-investors. He noted that the confidence measure showed a record 'optimism gap,' a difference of more than 15 percentage points between the number of positive investors compared to non-investors. Investors haven't just seen their stocks rise, but held more stable jobs and are pleased with the recovery, Carson said, while non-investors remain fearful. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research highlights Crocs, a retail stock he might have ignored if not for the quantitative analysis discipline in the firm's process, author Katrina Dudley discusses 'Undiversified: The Big Gender Short in Investment Management' and how and why an influx of women money managers would be good for the industry and for investors, and Patrick Healy of Caliber Financial Partners talks about stocks and his barbell-approach between growth and value in the Market Call.
Josef Schuster, president of IPOX Schuster -- a firm that tracks and evaluates initial public offerings -- says that the hot names like Robinhood that have been making headlines in IPOs have been the lesser opportunities right now, noting that lesser-known small- and mid-cap new companies have a greater probability of upside and are a better value. Schuster talks about the current IPO market, but also covers special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and how they are changing the landscape for companies looking to go public, along with how both types of opportunity can fit into an individual investor's portfolio. Also on the show, Ron Surz, author of 'Baby Boomer Investing in the Perilous Decade of the 2020s,' covering the dangers he sees in target-date and life-cycle funds, and Chuck answers audience questions about moving averages, paying off mortgages, and combining funds, ETFs and closed-end funds in a portfolio.
Adam Abbas, portfolio manager and the co-head of fixed income for the Oakmark Funds, says that investors are seeing -- and must react to -- different types of inflation, starting with the quantifiable shortages creating 'bottleneck inflation' that is transitory, then 'easy money inflation' created by central bank policies and unprecedented economic stimulus, and that investors will still find fixed income useful in these times for consistent returns and protection of capital, even if rates are not particularly attractive. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses some popular stocks -- all of which have been highlighted previously in 'The Danger Zone' -- that look even more precarious after reporting their most-recent quarterly earnings, author Erika Benson discusses 'Land Investing Mistakes,' and Chuck answers two questions from audience members.
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that the market is reaching all-time highs with 'weaker and weaker breadth and more narrow selectivity,' and that this dichotomy indicates that the risk of a correction is rising. Jonson says that investors who are significantly overweight in equities due to the market's hot run over the last year might want to pull back now to avoid a potential crunch as they watch this skirmish between the market's fundamentals and technicals play out. Also on the show, Nicholas Marshi, editor at BDCReporter.com, discusses the current earnings season and why he sees a 'golden age' ahead for business development companies, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp. talks about the changing dynamics of the housing and real estate market, and Michael Robinson, chief technology strategist for Money Map Press, talks tech stocks in the Market Call.
Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, says that while the market has seen great numbers thus far this year, there is room to go higher -- potentially by double digits -- once the market has clarity on how the Federal Reserve will respond to inflationary pressures. Bell notes that there will be 'rockier days ahead,' but she is optimistic not only for the rest of 2021 but for next year as well, noting that most of the red flags are worrisome but not real triggers for potential protracted downturn. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new fund from a big-name fund company that only just entered the exchange-traded fund space his pick as 'ETF of the Week,' and legendary financial talk-show host Moe Ansari of Compak Asset Management, lets Chuck turn the mic around on him as he talks stocks in the Market Call.
Veteran market observer Marc Chaikin, the founder of Chaikin Analytics, says that the market has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows since November of 2020, and that upward grind is likely to continue for at rest of the year -- Chaikin thinks the market will gain another 10 percent by year's end -- so investors who are worrying about problems and second-guessing the market's moves are hurting themselves and their portfolios. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com, which shows that the average consumer has more than a hundred dollars of unused (and potentially lost) gift cards at home, author Scott Jarred talks about his new book on how consumers can 'Future Hack' their financial lives, and Chuck answers a question from a listener who is unhappy with how former employers have been running his old retirement-savings plans.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that nervous investors are worried about numbers that are much more solid than they appear in headlines. Frick notes that retail sales, for example, could come down 5 percent from current levels and they'd still be booming. He sees strong economic growth even as the headline numbers start to reflect the movement from recovery mode to pre-pandemic normals. Also on the show, Adam Rozencwagj of Goehring and Rozencwajg says that a decade-long bear market in commodities has ended and that there are strong signs for a bull market ahead, helped along by the localized supply shortages arising from the pandemic. And Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of Stock Traders’ Almanac, says that the stock market is likely to see heightened volatility but mostly sideways movement through the fall.
David Trainer, president and founder of New Constructs puts technology giants Amazon, Alphabet and PayPal in the Danger Zone this week, noting that the companies are among the companies in the Standard and Poor's 500 that are most likely to miss earnings estimates for the upcoming reporting season, thanks to investments in other companies that ultimately distort their financial picture. Also on the show, Chad Moutry discusses the findings of the July Economic Outlook survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics, author Christopher Cox talks about his book 'The Deadline Effect' and offers suggestions for how procrastinators -- like Chuck -- can get things done before the last minute, fixed-income manager Jerry Paul of ICON Advisers stops by for a bonus NAVigator talking opportunities for yield in closed-end funds, and Chuck answers an audience-member's question on federal account protections.
Katie Stockton, founder and managing director at Fairlead Strategies, says that the market's recent volatility has changed investor sentiment but that mood change actually is creating buying opportunities. Stockton says she does not see much pressure for a correction in the market now, in spite of the market's nervousness; she notes that much of the downside nervousness is around mega-cap stocks, again creating opportunities for investors away from the headlines. Looking at fundamentals, Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy for WisdomTree Asset Management, says that the current market theme is 'inflation, inflation, inflation' and that the reflation/inflation story will likely drive much of the market action for the next year or two. In the NAVigator segment, Patrick Galley of RiverNorth Capital Management talks about how the narrowing of discounts in muni-bond closed end funds doesn't change the attractiveness of the asset class, nor make its relatively high tax-equivalent yields less attractive. And in the Market Call, Clark Kendall of Kendall Capital gives his take on both stocks and ETFs.
Ken McAtamney, manager of the William Blair International Leaders Fund, says that an 'underinvestment in [capital expenditures] around the world' has created a void that is now being filled around the world. He noted that beyond physical infrastructure in the United States and Europe, there will be expansive spending on data and digital infrastructure around the globe that will carry the recovery into the next few years. McAtamney is positive on developed Europe and emerging markets -- and specifically China -- as areas that should shine coming out of the pandemic recovery. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com focuses on inflation fears with his pick for the 'ETF of the Week,' Meredith Stoddard of Fidelity Investments discusses the firm's 2021 Couples and Money survey, and Charlie Farrell of Northstar Investment Advisors talks stocks and ETFs in the Market Call.
Stock market volatility is up as the markets try to sort out whether inflationary increases are permanent and when the Federal Reserve will decide it's time to raise interest rates, and that backdrop -- coupled with renewed fears of how Covid-19 could impact the business world -- should make volatility the norm for at least the remainder of the year, according to JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist for TD Ameritrade. Kinahan says the market 'is telling us that you shouldn't be expecting inflation for awhile,' and he notes that the market's technicals are mostly in line with the strong fundamentals to make it that a crash or a recession doesn't seem to be in the offing. In Left Brain Thinking today, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks about the durability of the cashless society movement and says that Visa, PayPal and Square are poised for massive growth on that front, without even factoring in cryptocurrencies as a future form of cashless payment. And in the Market Call, financial adviser Adam Lampe of Mint Wealth Management talks stocks.
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, says that inflation is the big risk facing the market, but he downplays the potential for inflation to last once supply-chain issues and demand levels normalize post-pandemic. Meanwhile, he makes the case that the stock market could rise from now through the end of the year and still enter 2022 relatively cheap, with the Standard and Poor's 500 trading at less than 20 times earnings, a level which would keep the bull market rolling. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses Americans' tipping habits and how they talked a better game than they played during the coronavirus epidemic, and Bernie Horn, manager of Polaris Global Value fund talks about where in the world he's investing and what stands out to him now in the Market Call.
Scott Colyer, chief executive officer at Advisors Asset Management, says that for all the talk that the Federal Reserve has started talking about hiking interest rates, he doesn't see it happening until 2022 or beyond, and that means that investors don't have to change strategies now to stay in line with the central; bank. He expects returns for the rest of the year to loosely resemble what happened during the first six months, an upward grind made on the back of increasing worries. Also on the show, Dave Stinnett, head of Vanguard Strategic Retirement Consulting, talks about the 20th anniversary edition of Vanguard's 'How America Saves' study, David Trainer, founder of New Constructs, puts the Robinhood IPO in 'the Danger Zone,' and Rob Spivey, director of research for Valens Securities, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says that the Federal Reserve wants the economy to run hot and is likely to let things keep rolling longer before raising rates to potentially put the brakes on. That, he says, will be well down the line, as he expects a good economy -- though not necessarily great -- for the next few quarters. He notes that a key factor will be monetary policy, but he notes that the current yield on Treasuries is a sign that the market is not fearful of an imminent breakout of inflation or rates, which is why a recession is 'not remotely imminent.' Also on the show, Dan Omstead of Tekla Capital -- which runs four health-care oriented closed-end funds -- discusses the post-pandemic outlook for biotech and healthcare investing, and Eric Lynch of the Scharf Funds talks about 'quality relative value investing' in the Market Call.
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, says that while worries about rising inflation and interest rates have some market observers talking about the potential for recession, he believes they're ahead of the economy right now. Schutte says the economic cycle still has room to roll -- and that the market will pick up as fears of long-term inflation in the coming few quarters. The remainder of the show has a distinct focus on income, and ways to generate and protect it in the inflationary/rising rate environment. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund that pays monthly income and that has an 8 percent current yield his 'ETF of the Week,' and Renee Schaaf, president of retirement and income solutions for Principal Financial Group, talks about the pros and cons of purchasing annuities under these changing market conditions.
Zachary Karabell, president of River Twice Capital, says that short-term bottlenecks and supply-chain issues are not systemic inflation, and while he foresees inflationary spikes, he does not believe that long-term upward price pressure is about to change the broad economic picture. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, he notes that the global economy could see a series of rolling recoveries, leading to repeated cycles of good news as the world re-opens from the pandemic. Also on the show, Catherine Golladay of Charles Schwab and Co. discusses the latest 401k Participant Survey, in which Americans discuss just how much money they believe they must amass to live out their days comfortably, Chuck answers an audience question on passive investing and, in the Market Call, Bryan Koslow of Clarus Group talks about the exchange-traded funds he favors now.
Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman of Ariel Investments and a noted value manager, says that he expects inflation to be more than 'transitory,' and that if prices start to rise, it could spell some trouble for growth stocks. Meanwhile, even with the markets around record-high levels, he believes there are still plenty of reasonably priced companies that should help value investors continue their recent comeback. Also on the show, Zachary Karabell of RiverTwice Capital discusses his latest book on the reclusive Brown Brothers Harriman and why it has been an American powerbroker, Alia Dudum of Lending Club talks about the firm's latest Reality Check Paycheck-to-Paycheck research, which shows that Americans are struggling to stay ahead of their bills, and Chuck talks about his latest adventures in consolidating his personal accounts.
Rick Bookstaber, chief risk officer at Fabric RQ, talks about the changing face of risk in the current market environment, running from how rising inflation and interest rates play in to how the 'gamefying' of the market and the eruption of meme stocks that have defied traditional market forces has the potential to impact all investors, even the classic buy-and-hold types who avoid hot stock plays. Also on the show, Anqi Chen, research economist at the Center for Retirement Research, discusses Americans' need for long-term care and how most people are unprepared to cope with the problem, Stan Treger, behavioral scientist at Morningstar, covers research on how few investors want cryptocurrency available in their retirement plans, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund in the Danger Zone, and Chuck answers a question about non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and whether he's joining the latest investment trend.
David Goerz, chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, sees trouble ahead for a market that is overvalued, with an economy that he believes is headed for trouble unless government spending is reduced and with a bond market that he finds troubling. Goerz expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates once this year, and says there will be four -- but as many as eight -- rate increases next year, with the hope being that many hikes will ultimately return the economy to normal by the end of 2023. Also on the show, Mark Newton of Newton Advisors says the market's technicals suggest a 10 percent correction is in the cards playing out right now, but that the market is likely to rebound from that into the end of the year, plus legendary activist investor Phillip Goldstein talking about the diminishing rights of shareholders in closed-end funds, and Arynton Hardy of Hardy Capital Investments talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Marko Papic, chief strategist for the Clocktower Group, says that he expects an inflation surprise to the upside -- bigger than the market forecasts -- which is likely to upset the market, adding to volatility and limiting the forward potential for stocks. It has him looking to foreign markets to generate bigger returns for the remainder of the year and potentially beyond. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to the potential of blockchain with his ETF of the Week, Jacque Reardon discusses Franklin Templeton's latest Voice of the American Worker study -- which shows that people are redefining what it means to retire -- and in the Market Call, David Marcus of the Evermore Global Value fund talks about where he sees blood running in the streets to find his buys.
Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says that the market's rebound from early-pandemic lows has investors tempted into concentrated portfolios, pursuing the hot sectors and big winners, but he says the remainder of the year will be about risk, and 'reintroducing diversification by asset class, geography, equity size class and strategy.' Terranova says he is optimistic not just for the future but for the next 10 to 15 years, but he says the markets will demand that investors spread their risks around and manage their return expectations to ride it out to those long-term gains. Also on the show, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth Management says that investors should be focused on sustainable revenue growth -- rather than whether a stock fits the classic growth or value labels -- to find companies that can move forward regardless of market conditions, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Balanced Fund and the Plumb Equity Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
John Mousseau, chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors, says that worries about rising inflation are overblown given current conditions, and he says investors should expect higher inflation but only to the extent that it returns to pre-pandemic levels over the next year. Also on the show, Francesca Ortegren discusses a recent study done by Clever Real Estate showing how the pandemic continues to damage Americans' finances, Chuck answers a question about Section 72T withdrawals from retirement accounts, and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners talks practical and tactical investing with ETFs in the Market Call.
Different analysts taking a fundamental and a technical view of the market both think that strong conditions will carry into the second half of 2021, but think returns may be muted compared to the last six months. Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Portfolio Solutions, says that 'the growth rate of the growth rate' is slowing, which is likely to slow the market or at least make it more choppy. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Bierman of TheoTrade.com says the market is overbought now from a technical standpoint, which eventually should play out in a correction and heightened volatility. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors and the executive chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about the narrowing discounts in closed-end funds but warns investors not to wait for them to widen before buying, and Daniel Kline, lead advisor at 7Investing.com talks stocks in the Market Call.
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer for Cambria Investments, says that the U.S. stock market's return to record high levels has given it little room to move forward from here -- with the exception of value stocks, which remain attractive despite a 'face-ripper' of a year -- but he believes that while investors can ride the current trends until they change, he notes that the biggest opportunities are around the world right now. He notes that most people are too focused on America in their asset allocations, but they now are looking at cheaper names and bigger growth potential abroad. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an actively managed financial-sector fund his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services and The DRIP Investor, talks about the art and science of selecting stocks using his firm's Quadrix system in the Market Call.
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group -- who joins Chuck every three months to discuss the market, investing and his personal battle with Lou Gehrig's Disease -- responds to fears of rising inflation and interest rates, whether that changes his disdain for bonds, but also talks baseball, how the pandemic was a stroke of good fortune for him and much more. Also on the show, Michael Dominguez, author of 'Armchair Real Estate Millionaire' discusses how the pandemic and the hot housing market have changed things for income-oriented property buyers, and Marina Gross of Natixis’ Portfolio Research and Consulting Group talks about how financial advisers are bridging the gap between their own realistic market expectations and the wild hopes of clients/individual investors.
Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer for Vantagepoint Investment Advisors and ICMA Retirement Corp., says that despite concerns about inflation and interest rates creeping up that have dampened market enthusiasm, he expects that 'the combined effects of better GDP and better margins are going to be good for equities over the next 12 months.' He discusses the sectors and areas that he expects to lead the way higher and those he wants to avoid in The Big Interview. Also on the show, Chuck discusses his feelings about cost-to-yield on dividend-paying stocks, Ted Rossman talk about a Bankrate.com study on how much investors saved from remote work during the pandemic and how much they could suffer financially from the return to normal, and Gary Bradshaw, co-manager of Hodges Blue Chip Equity Income, covers stocks that he believes will be consistent performers in the Market Call.
Dave King, head of income and growth strategies for Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says that income-oriented investors should be revisiting a popular old strategy -- the Dogs of the Dow -- buying the highest-yielding stocks of the benchmark index. The strategy has fallen out of favor in recent years, while value investing has struggled, King says, but now is a good time to look for more yield out of large-cap stocks. Also on the show, David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers’ Center for Investor Insight discusses survey data showing that average American investors are expecting historically high returns from stocks -- above 17 percent before inflation -- for the year ahead, David Trainer of New Constructs talks about an accounting problem that misstates the financial condition of many companies and, in the Market Call, Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund talks 'absolute value' and whether the current market leaves any stocks that meet his tough valuation standards.
John Kosar, chief market strategist for Asbury Research, says that the market is overextended as measured by a number of technical indicators, but breakouts visible this week in technology sectors suggest that there is meaningful ground to be made now, as much as 10 percent in tech stocks and sectors in short order. Also on the show, Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial Services discusses the state of closed-end fund discounts, and how current conditions appear to be a repeat of what the industry saw after the financial crisis of 2008, Byron Reese discusses his new book, 'Wasted: How We Squander Time, Money, and Natural Resources-and What We Can Do About It,' and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at TFC Financial Management, talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global market strategist for Charles Schwab and Co., says that the stock market is likely to have an inverse reaction to economic news, with bad news being greeted happily because it could prompt the Federal Reserve to unwind controls more slowly, whereas positive developments may be viewed as inflationary. These attitudes could lead to heightened volatility for the remainder of the year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a real-asset play his ETF of the Week, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses how investors currently and implausibly favor real estate and cash over stocks as a long-term investment, and Sam Hendel of Easterly Investment Partners talks about value investing in the Market Call.
More than nine in 10 retirees now agree that having a purpose -- and typically a purpose that revolves around family, but also on staying fit and active and possibly semi-employed -- is a key to a successful retirement, with the focus on purpose seemingly coming out of the slowdown and malaise of the pandemic. Scott Thoma from Edward Jones discusses those results from a recent survey, and how the pandemic has made people reset, reconsider and reprioritize their retirement plans. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research examines Revolve Group, an online retailer with growth prospects beyond the reopening that make it an ideal recovery play, Ray Kennedy of Hotchkis and Wiley talks high yield investing specifically and fixed-income more broadly, and Randy Warren of Warren Financial mixes fundamentals, with top-down analysis and some technicals to select stocks in the Market Call.
Peter Chiappinelli, portfolio strategist at GMO Asset Management, says that the market is showing similarities to 1999, which proved to be a great market opportunity that ended in a bear market. Chiappinelli says that every bubble has expensive stocks, but also some wild speculators -- people he calls 'the crazies' -- who are wildly speculative and bullish. They arrived about a year ago, Chiappinelli says, and it's a sign that the market rally has reached its final stages. Also on the show, Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors talks about why technicals show signs of a sideways, range-bound market for the summer, Josh Cohen, head of institutional defined contribution for PGIM, discusses the current status and future of retirement savings programs, and Chuck answers a question about short squeezes and whether investors should jump into them.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist for ProShares, says that the ongoing spike in inflation will force bonds into a brief tailspin, but won't do much to damage equity markets, which he says are trending 'a little toward Goldilocks.' Also on the show, Catherine Yoshimoto of FTSE Russell talks about the upcoming, 33rd annual 'Russell Reconstitution,' and how it reflects broad changes in the market, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a Chinese IPO in 'The Danger Zone,' and Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Asset Management, talks about current investment themes and exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Total Return Fund, says that with the Federal Reserve acknowledging this week that higher rates are coming -- even if it's not for 18 months -- and working to manage inflation, it's clear that the central bank is starting to change its tune on stimulus and quantitative easing to avoid future problems. He notes that up to now, the Fed has been playing with 'the same playbook' it has used in past downturns and crises, but that the current situation involves a faster snap-back and recovery period, and that the Fed's playbook has been amped up by aggressive stimulus, which he says needs to change to avoid future market problems. Also on the show, Howard Dvorkin, chairman of Debt.com, talks about how people can make the most of Amazon Prime Days next week without letting the urge to splurge get the best of them, Daniel Ashcraft of Gateway Investment Advisers talks about using covered-call strategies to get more consistent results during times of heightened volatility, and Lauren Hill, research analyst and portfolio manager at Westwood Investment Management talks large-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for the Channel Capital Research Institute, says in the Big Interview that the Federal Reserve has made its plans clear, and that is that rates and inflation will rise in the next year or two, but they stopped short of any action that would make nervous investors leave the market now. He suggested that investors should stand pat with well-balanced, diversified portfolios as they wait for the paths of rates and inflation to become more clear. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of TFTrends.com makes a unique precious metals fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses how Americans are preparing to overextend themselves, raising credit card balances in the process as they unleash their unfulfilled desires of the last 16 months. In the Market Call, James Abate of the Centre Funds -- portfolio manager of Centre American Select Equity (DHAMX) -- talks stocks.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says that the big question dogging the market right now is whether the recent spike in inflation is transitory or longer lasting. He sees inflation staying high for most of the rest of 2021 before normalizing, meaning that the market's growth in 2022 is not likely to be curtailed by rising prices. Also on the show, Brian Gahsman of the AlphaCentric Robotics and Automation Fund talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses this week's column, where he gives you three reasons for optimism and three more for pessimism given current market conditions.
Duane McAllister, portfolio manager for the Baird Funds, says that the Federal Reserve is likely to sustain its inflation projections but says that he doesn't expect interest rates to spike as inflation goes up, citing strong international demand and other factors as keeping rates in check. Also on the show, Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios talks technical analysis, noting that he sees the market taking a 7 to 10 percent downturn over the next few months before proving that drop to be a buying opportunity based on a rebound in the fourth quarter, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses how coronavirus changed Americans' habits with rewards credit cards, and Oliver Pursche of Wealthspire talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Peter Berezin, chief global strategist and director of research at BCA Research, discusses the "Crypto Impossibility Theorem' -- which states that cryptocurrencies will only be viable if they can offer a higher return than stocks, and why he believes that won't happen, and will lead to struggles that distract the market and slow appreciation. In the long run, he expects interest in cryptocurrencies to diminish and the market to benefit as a result. Also on the show, Mike Brown of Expertise.com discusses the high percentage of consumers who bought insurance policies during the pandemic but now wish they hadn't made the purchase, Kyle Guske of New Constructs highlights the problems inherent to 'street earnings' in The Danger Zone, and Chuck answers an audience member's question about bond investments in a rising-rate environment.
Gargi Chaudhuri, head of investment strategy for iShares, Americas says that while the reopening is driving growth right now, she expects capital expenditure and infrastructure spending to keep the economy rolling into and through 2022. She also notes that while the pandemic shutdown was a global event, the reopening is happening in pockets which will mean that different regions -- and industries -- will be coming back and gaining steam at different times, which should prolong the global recovery, although she notes that central bankers will have to act prudently to keep the underlying conditions primed for growth. Turning to technical analysis, Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com sees nothing but bullish patterns and a breakout to new highs ahead, saying he expects the market to roll into the early summer before taking a breather come late July and August; even that respite, he said, will not stop the upward momentum. Also on the show, Bob Long, chief executive officer at Conversus, discusses how 'tender funds' can give investors access to private equity and smooth out portfolio performance, and we revisit a recent chat with Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark.
Talley Leger, senior investment strategist at Invesco, recognizes the various tunes the market is humming over inflation, interest rates and other concerns, but he looks at earnings growth and valuations and is singing a different tune, Frank Sinatra's 'The Best is Yet to Come.' He explains why in the Big Interview. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund based on a famous investment guru's strategy his 'ETF of the Week," Meredith Stoddard, vice president of life event planning at Fidelity Investments, discusses research on the financial, emotional, social and physical tolls that caregivers endure as they help their loved ones, and we revisit a recent Market Call interview talking exchange-traded funds with Chuck Self from iSectors.com
Kathy Bostjancic, chief US financial economist, says the current recovery 'is what we've been waiting for' and is a story of spending and pent-up demand tempered by a global supply shortage that is generating inflation and symbolizes the bumps in the road that should temper consumers' enthusiasm. Bostjancic notes that getting supply and demand rebalanced could take a year or more, with the meantime being when inflation and interest rates could grow into a significant problem. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks reopening plays, noting that 'The truth-teller will be the earnings and what the revenues have done a quarter or two past this,' portfolio manager Nate Velarde of Chautauqua Capital Management discusses the areas where he thinks investors can develop long-term investment convictions now, and Aliza Vigderman of Security.org covers a new survey showing that more than 20 percent of Americans experience identity theft in the aftermath of a relationship breaking up.
Lawrence Kotlikoff, an economist and the founder of Maxifi.com, says that the current increase in inflation is nothing compared to what he fears is coming, which he said could be several years of the high single digits all the way up to hyperinflation levels. Kotlikoff says that investors need to factor what inflation will do to the ability of their financial nest egg to maintain purchasing power and fund a lengthy retirement. Also on the show, Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services discusses technical analysis, noting that the market is looking like it is in a sideways pattern that could last for the summer, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com talks mutual funds and notes that one hot, popular fund company looks to him like a train wreck that's on the track with unavoidable damage dead ahead.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S and P Global Ratings says that the economy is being turned back on in the middle to late stages of the economic cycle, which is different from the standard exit from a downturn, raising questions about the impact and effectiveness of policy decisions going forward. Still, he remains constructive about the market, noting that the U.S. economy could come out of the pandemic without too much scarring, with reasonable growth rates -- much lower than current levels --with markets remaining reasonably calm as the economy gets sorted out. Also on the show, Minouche Shafik, director of London School of Economics and Political Science, discusses her new book, 'What We Owe Each Other: A New Social Contract for a Better Society,' and Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, talks long-term thematic investing in the Market Call.
Bob DiMella, co-head of municipal managers at MacKay Shields, discusses the surprise that muni bonds have been since the start of the pandemic, coming through what were expected to be tough times with superior performance among fixed-income investments and positioned to be a leader in the bond space amid rising interest rates and inflation in the future. Also on the show, Randy Anderson of the Griffin Capital Institutional Access Real Estate fund discusses the changing opportunities in real estate investing now, Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF talks technical analysis and why he dislikes financials and energy stocks right now, and Barry James of the James Advantage Funds talks about stocks -- and why he actually favors financial companies -- in the Market Call.
Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that the coronavirus pandemic and the current re-opening have economic parallels to what the United States experienced after World War II, noting that key industries and economic conditions will be changed forever. He believes that current concerns about inflation are overblown when viewed through a long-term lens, and expects economic stimulus -- funded at historically low rates for Treasury yields -- to continue to stoke expansion and recovery. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends looks at a new, actively managed fund for his ETF of the Week and Chuck Self, chief investment officer at iSectors, talks commodities ETFs and more in the Market Call.
Mark Travis, president of Intrepid Capital Management, says in the Market Call that there will be a battle going forward between the Federal Reserve and the marketplace and Treasury yields -- where various economic pressures will meet -- but that the brewing fight over rates and inflation have yet to negatively impact the stock market. It does have him looking at some securities and favoring their bonds over the stocks as he looks for 'compounders' that can grow in this environment. Also on the show, Jan Eeckhout, author of 'The Profit Paradox: How Thriving Firms Threaten the Future of Work,' Ken Tumin of DeositAccounts.com on a survey of how people are putting record amounts into bank accounts despite payouts that amount to nothing, and Chuck takes an audience member's question on what to do with checks that she neglected to deposit in a timely fashion.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Management, says that while inflation is rising, he doesn't expect it to reach the kinds of dangerous levels that could crash the stock market. He notes that, historically, markets do well when inflation is under 4 percent, provided that spikes are avoided, which he believes the central banks globally will control. Still, he has tempered expectations for the future, noting that he expects stocks to return 5 to 7 percent in 2022. Also on the show, Washington Post columnist Michelle Singletary discusses her new book, 'What to Do With Your Money When Crisis Hits,,' and Peter Donisanu, president/chief financial strategist for Franklin Madison Advisors talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark, says that individual investors are focusing too much on near-term risk management at the expense of their long-term goals, noting that anyone with time frames of five years or more can be confident that current concerns about inflation, rising interest rates and more will not cause long-run economic scarring. He believes that domestic markets will remain stronger than international markets, he suggests that governments and central banks are prepared to prop up economies against deep recessions and notes that America is well positioned for the future due to technology being such a key cornerstone to future growth. Also on the show, Kimberly Flynn of XA Investments discusses how financial firms should be developing new products overseas that will ultimately find an audience in the US, Vivian Tsai of the College Savings Foundation discusses research on how the pandemic has changed attitudes and savings/spending plans for future college students, and Scott Klimo of Saturna Capital and the Amana Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says the market seems to be in the middle of a correction now, with a choppy trend that is challenging investors' patience and judgment. She says investors are having a tough time determining if inflationary pressures are transient and temporary or if they represent real trouble, and she says that story will play out in the currency and cryptocurrency markets as well as in the bond market later this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a core fund that takes a leveraged approach as his ETF of the Week, and Garvin Jabusch, chief investment officer for Green Alpha Advisors, talks about 'Next Economy Investing' in the Market Call.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research says that there are plenty of reasons for investors to be concerned about the stock market now, though he notes that since World War II the market has mostly avoided significant downturns in the month of June. He is not opposed to turning defensive and rotating into health care and consumer staples -- rather than retreating from potential troubles -- but he relies on stock market history as 'virtual valium,' a calming agent that reminds him that investors who get out of the market historically tend to do worse than investors who ride out the troubles. 'It is typically better to buy than bail,' he says, and he suggests that investors should be looking for things to be buying next, as the market gets volatile as the economy adjusts to reopening from the pandemic. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research talks about how the changing market has the firm looking for more growth-at-a-reasonable-price picks,and that Salesforce.com looks great when evaluated that way now, and Chris Retzler of the Needham Small Cap Growth Fund talks small companies in the Market Call.
Axel Merk of Merk Investments says that the stock market is due for a correction, but not necessarily a bear market, noting that the economic recovery has gone far and that the reopening will fight some of the downward pressures. Merk says that while the market is seen as being 'different' right now, the traditional 'sell in May and go away' thinking might be in place, at least through Labor Day; he's been protecting profits and taking chips off the table but noted that he would not be going short the market now. Also on the show, Simon Zhen of MyBankTracker.com talks about just how much change Americans will stop to pick up, Chuck takes a question about travel insurance now, and David Barse of XOut Capital talks about stocks and enhancing indexes in the Market Call.
Market forecaster Harry S. Dent Jr. says the next stock market crash -- which he thinks could hit as early as the next six weeks -- will be a 50 percent decline in two to three months, but he says that the decline is a re-set needed to pass a bubble and that the carnage will be over by late in 2022 or 2023. 'The upside is limited, the downside is somewhere between 65 and 80 percent on stocks,' he says in an extended Big Interview. Dent says that Bitcoin has been 'the best leading indicator of the market,' and he notes that if Bitcoin's mid-April peak holds up -- and the crypto is down about 50 percent since then -- then the market would be due to start its significant fall by the end of June. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs discusses a new and different way that some companies are hiding some troubling numbers from investors, and Chuck talks about the various forms of risk and how investors -- even nervous ones -- want exposure to all of them.
Economist Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management says that the economic rebound and recovery is peaking now, in terms of growth rates, and he believes that later in the year economic growth will be well below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. He believes that the stimulus efforts will prove to be temporary help, but will leave behind debt that will lead the economy to 'death by slow strangulation.' Also on the show, Mark Asaro of Noble Wealth Management talks about how closed-end funds can be used to build a paycheck-replacement system for investors, and Eric Boughton of Matisse Capital Management discusses closed-end funds, master-limited partnerships and more in the Market Call.
Meir Statman, professor at Santa Clara University and one of the world's leading experts on behavioral finance, talks about the approach he took when looking into making a major donation of his own money, and the decision-making that prompted him to give generously 'with a warm hand,' rather than waiting until his death. He also discusses why he doesn't rebalance his portfolio, or stick to a common asset allocation for a man his age, how he has given up on using money-market funds and replaced them with short-term bond funds -- despite the cost of occasional fluctuations -- and more. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com puts a new fund based on an index that is built to achieve consistent performance into the ETF of the Week spotlight, and Craig Copeland of the Employee Benefits Research Institute covers the group's most recent retirement-confidence survey.
Jason Hsu of Rayliant Global Advisors says that China -- which was first into and first out of the pandemic -- is a good economic precursor for the rest of the world to watch now, as its stock market euphoria from 2020 has backed off with more mundane returns this year. Hsu notes that China's path through the pandemic was different than for much of the world, highlighting that there has been some de-coupling between global markets, less correlation where one nation's issues lead to problems elsewhere; that, he notes, is good for diversification and a reason to give international investments a bigger role in portfolios. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left brain Investment Research discusses how the stock market's recent rotation has him looking for growth in some non-traditional places, Chuck talks about the latest research around the '4 percent rule' for retirees, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
Willie Delwiche, investment analyst for AllStarCharts.com, says that the market is on solid ground now, even as it enters the second year of a cyclical rally. He suggests looking for clues on where to invest from the current 'digestive phase,' which saw the market take a turn for the worse; despite that downturn, Delwiche notes that financials and materials stocks reached new highs, showing their strength -- which he expects to continue -- in this market. Also on the show, Doug Loeffler of Sierra Investment Management talks about the market and investors' changing risk profiles, Chuck answers a question from a novice who is considering cryptocurrency investments, and Brian Smoluch of the Hood River Small-Cap Growth Fund returns to the Market Call for the first time in roughly five years.
Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn -- who has been on the Market Call more than any other guest -- returns to the show and says that for the first time since the Reagan Administration, he is genuinely concerned about the prospect of rising inflation. He sees oil rising to 100 dollars a barrel and says commodity prices are showing upward pricing pressure every day. Also on the show, David Trainer of NewConstructs.com puts the SquareSpace IPO -- due to launch on Wednesday -- into the Danger Zone before it even hits the market, Morgan Henderson of Choice Mutual talks about the poor end-of-life financial planning decisions that many Americans are making, and William Burckhart talks about changing the face of investing, as described in his new book, '21st Century Investing.'
David Ellison, manager of two Hennessy Funds focused on financial-services stocks, says that the market has technology companies trading at 15 times revenues while banks are trading at 10 times their profits, creating a valuation edge that 'makes it hard to see how [financials] will not do well over the next couple of years,' and that's before factoring in rising interest rates and other factors that could change and help the financial landscape going forward. Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence discusses how investors need to look past discounts when analyzing closed-end funds, technical analyst D.R. Barton Jr. discusses how current market volatility looks mostly like a buying opportunity, and Jamie Cuellar, manager of the Buffalo Small Cap Fund, says in the Market Call that investors need to be picky with small stocks as market volatility grows over the remainder of the year.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer for Glenview Trust, says that current inflation may be on the rise, but the increase may be caused in part by bottlenecks in certain commodities that have caused prices to increase, and that pressure should ease over time. He expects value stocks to continue their recent outperformance over growth during the rest of the year, with a strong economic recovery and the slight inflation blip pushing that action along. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com discusses a cash-cow investment strategy with his pick for the ETF of the Week, Jerome Clark discusses how the pandemic played out in family money talks, as measured by the T. Rowe Price 2021 Parents, Kids & Money Survey, and Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad’s Utility Investor, covers a wide range of utility stocks in the Market Call.
Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, says that the light at the end of the pandemic's tunnel is getting brighter and that as conditions improve the astronomically high expectations for economic growth keep moving higher, as do the already heightened expectations for Standard and Poor's 500 earnings. 'The overriding theme,' Gayle says, 'is that the fundamentals continue to improve,' creating the proverbial rising tide that is lifting all boats. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research discusses what growth investors should be thinking now that volatility has made the ride much bumpier, and Ted Rossman of CredtCards.com covers a new survey showing that many parents helped their children get through the pandemic financially, but to the detriment of their own finances. In the Market Call, Andre Weisbrod of Quantum Financial Advisors makes his debut on the show discussing stocks and ETFs.
It's a wide-ranging show today with Mish Schneider of MarketGauge.com talking technical analysis and worrying about the status of the dollar and how it appears to be weakening, and Andy Kapyrin of Regent Atlantic discussing the Biden Administration's tax-overhaul proposal, which would raise capital gains taxes on the wealthiest Americans to more than 40 percent. Stan Haithcock, 'Stan the Annuity Man,' returns to answer an audience member's question about how and whether to establish an annuity for lifetime income, and author John Wasik talks about the overlooked economic legacy of Abraham Lincoln, how Honest Abe's policies set the groundwork for the American economy and how he'd likely deal with today's economic challenges.
David Trainer of New Constructs revisits three past 'Danger Zone' picks that recently reported earnings that the market could take as a positive but that he feels continue to mask deep underlying problems. Trainer believes two of the three companies ultimately could prove worthless, but even if they don't he says that all three stocks are dramatically overpriced based on their realistic prospects for controlling their respective industries. Also on the show, Chuck covers why Friday's bad jobs report was greeted by new stock market highs, John Divine of US News and World Report talks about dogecoin and whether investors should consider the latest hot cryptocurrency, author Jennifer Turliuk discusses how to figure out what to do with your life, and Adan Coons of Winthrop Capital Management talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis and OptionStrategist.com says he is tightening up his stops right now, because the market is showing a few subtle danger signs within mostly positive trends. He worries that the market -- and particularly the Nasdaq, which has struggled while other indicators have flirted with new highs -- could be in for a short, sttep downturn before they can build off of positive news and trends. Also on the show, author Phil Moeller discusses his latest book, 'Get What's Yours for Health Care,' John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance looks at the opportunities now in closed-end funds, and Ken Applegate, lead manager for the Wasatch International Growth and Wasatch International Select funds talks small- and mid-cap stocks in the Market Call.
With the stock market near record highs and up nearly 50 percent in the last 12 months, big gains aren't all that impressive. But Baron Partners Fund -- which gained 45 percent in 2019 and nearly 150 percent in 2020 -- has now racked up a 165 percent increase over the last 12 months, more than three times the return of the broad stock market and is the number one fund in its category in every time period from one year to 15 years. In an extended Big Interview, manager Michael Baron discusses how and why that has happened, what they're doing to avoid regressing to the mean in the future and gives his reaction to Morningtsr analysts downgrading the fund to a 'neutral' rating despite its long run of success. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a bond fund with an interesting twist his ETF of the Week, and Jason Herried, director of equity strategies for Johnson Financial Group discusses mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist, John Hancock Investment Management, says that the economic and corporate fundamental pictures are 'absolutely awesome' right now, but she notes that after parabolic returns off the bottom like we have seen in the last 12 months, the market tends to become more choppy, volatile and challenging. While she is bullish -- believing that new economic and market cycles are unfolding now -- she thinks the easy rebound returns have been made. Also on the show, Brian Dress, director of research at Left Brain Investment Research, discusses Energy Transfer as a 'bond-like equity' with a 7 percent yield and potential for growth, Matt Frankel of The Ascent talks about a study on what consumers most want from their credit cards, and author and civil rights attorney Jim Freeman discusses his new book, 'Rich Thanks to Racism: How the Ultra-Wealthy Profit from Racial Injustice.'
Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market should remain strong while the economy gets back to full speed, but he notes that things could change quickly thereafter and says investors will want to get defensive. He does not expect a recession or significant bear market, but believes investors will want to play defe3nse and choose buying opportunities carefully. Also on the show, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, says that the market's technicals are all green lights right now, but that the color is likely to change with a consolidation move -- not necessarily a bear market but months of sideways to gradual decline -- that could start late this month and last into the fall. Plus, Ismat Mangla of MagnifyMoney.com discusses study research showing how the timing of retirement can impact lifetime housing costs, and Jennifer Barrett, author of, 'Think Like a Breadwinner,' discusses her book.
Stan Haithcock -- better known as 'Stan the Annuity Man' -- joins Chuck to help savers and investors understand where annuities fit into an investment program at a time when many people are scared about how far the market could fall from record highs. haithcock -- who has been described as 'the walking middle finger of truth for the annuities industry' -- gives his fundamental lessons that allow consumers to decide if an annuity is a good and necessary savings tool for their individual situation. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com study on what event-goers are doing -- or not doing -- when it comes to concert, sports and other tickets as pandemic restrictions ease, Kyle Guske of New Constructs has another meme stock whose fans are ignoring fundamentals for the 'Danger Zone' and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund talks value investing in the Market Call.
Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private Bank, says that the market is in a sweet spot right now -- neither too hot nor cold -- but when inflation heats up and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell tells the market his thoughts, 'that's when things will get dicier.' Quinlan doesn't expect the market to hit a wall, but he expects a 'true testing period' and says investors should prepare for that by diversifying, rebalancing, and being ready to buy when any setback or downturn occurs. Also on the ninth-anniversary edition of Money Life, Tom Dinsmore of the 50-year-old Bancroft Capital Fund talks convertible securities, James Otteson discusses his new book, 'The Seven Deadly Economic Sins,' and Clark Kendall of Kendall Capital Management covers the Biden Administration's infrastructure plan and how investors should react and respond to it.
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp,, says that the increase in home prices is being fueled by low interest rates -- which increases purchasing power -- a lack of supply of homes and a generational shift of young families striving to get a home, all fundamental reasons for higher prices without actually inflating a bubble. Fleming also discusses why rising delinquencies aren't about to create a foreclosure boom, and much more in the Big Interview. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a commodity fund his ETF of the Week, Randy Frederick of the Schwab Center for Financial Research talks about a recent survey of traders and just how bullish shorter-term investors are, and Mike Liss of American Century Value fund discusses relative value investing in the Market Call.
Jack Brennan, former chairman and chief executive at The Vanguard Group, discusses his new book 'More Straight Talk on Investing: Lessons for a Lifetime' and talks about how the financial world has changed in the 17 years since the original 'Straight Talk on Investing' debuted, and how investors can best navigate what lies ahead. Also on the show, Janie Quek of Left Brain Investment Research covers Airbnb Inc. and why she believes it is poised for a big post-pandemic boost, with William Smead of the Smead Value Fund talking value investing and stocks in the Market Call.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance, says that while the market is poised for continued growth -- especially as the economy reopens -- savvy investors may want to diversify further and tighten their asset allocations so that they are better positioned to survive trouble when it arrives. He notes that he prefers value to growth right now, and notes that while he likes emerging markets he believes there are better bargains to be had in Europe. Also on the show, technical analyst Matt Harris, sees few impediments to the market's long run-up, though he is particularly bullish on emerging markets right now, significantly more optimistic than Zaccarelli. Rebecca Heiss discusses her new book, 'Instinct: Rewire Your Brain with Science-Backed Solutions to Increase Productivity and Achieve Success,' and Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers talks about the latest survey research from the National Association for Business Economics, which shows widespread optimism for record levels of GDP growth over the next six months.
Many experts have been on Money Life recently saying that the classic 60 percent stocks/40 percent bonds portfolio doesn't work; some have suggested changing the mix of holdings that make those percentages, others have recommended making stocks 70 or 80 percent of a standard portfolio. Today on Money Life, John Ruth, chief executive officer at Build Asset Management, suggests turning the entire equation upside down, making the bond portion the heavy part, and using options to help returns be more stable and predictable in all market conditions. Also on the show, Melanie Lieberman of ThePointsGuy.com discusses a survey showing that half of Americans not only plan to take a summer vacation but will spend big doing it, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Netflix -- which he calls 'the original meme stock' - back in the Danger Zone, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds talks about insider buying/selling and its impact on stocks in the Market Call.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, and Buck Klintworth, portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, say in successive interviews that they see the market as poised to take a breather, a correction, a downturn or whatever you want to call a small setback. Both of them, however, were clear that any setback now and through the summer is a clear buying opportunity, as they believe the market will quickly re-establish its long-term upward trend. Also on the show, Michael Spatacco of Bancroft Capital talks about how social or ESG investors are finally getting the chance to use closed-end funds, and Eric Schoenstein of Jensen Investment Management talks about 'quality investing' -- looking for companies with 'formidable competitive advantage profiles' in the Market Call.
Steven McClurg of Valkyrie Investments -- which has filed registration papers to create two different Bitcoin-related ETFs -- says that cryptocurrency shouldn't be seen as a replacement for gold and precious metals or as a store of value, but instead is growing into a way that transactions are being done around the world, and is starting to become something that corporations must invest in as part of their international trade. That maturation process, he says, will be helped along as regulators start to ease restrictions and allow more cryptocurrency funds into the market. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a thematic dividend growth fund his ETF of the Week, Francesa Ortegren of Clever Real Estate discusses how Americans are struggling to make ends meet late in the pandemic, and Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Investment Partners talks top-down stock selection in the Market Call.
Scott Crowe, chief investment officer at CenterSquare Investment Management, says that real estate investment trusts currently are cheap, currently trading where it was pre-pandemic. That said, some of that issue stems from certain parts of the real estate world being scary; the pandemic-driven change to working from home will impact office space, Crowe discusses whether office space could have the same dismal-looking future as shopping malls and retails spaces. Also weighing in on real estate today is Mark Hines from Left Brain Investment Research, who highlights a residential mortgage REIT as a 'bond-like equity' that can help investors balance out a portfolio. Later in the show, Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses how consumers' savings habits appear to be changing late in the pandemic, and Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Avi Gilburt, editor of the Elliott Wave Trader, says that he sees the Standard and Poor's 500 having a summer rally -- after a small near-term pullback -- to finish the year at 4,600 and maybe slightly higher, but his long-term outlook is that the index will reach 6,000 by 2023. Also on the show, Steve Wendel, head of behavioral research at Morningstar, discusses new research on how the pandemic is affecting Americans' financial security, Matt Schulz of LendingTree talks about how fewer consumers were stashing their cash in March and whether the savings trends are changing as the economy reopens, and Hilary Kramer -- who oversees seven different investment newsletter -- returns to the Market Call for the first time in over two years to talk about stocks.
Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that investors preparing for a post-pandemic stock market and economy will want to broaden their exposure to different equity asset classes and sectors, will need to be picky about fixed-income investments, but will also want to build up their holdings in commodities and add alternative asset classes and hedging strategies in order to ride out a world that is clearly rotating to new and different economic drivers. Also on the show, Phil Korenman, head of individual investors for T. Rowe Price, discusses the extra footnote the firm has put onto big one-year returns numbers telling investors just how unique the last 12 months have been, David Trainer of New Constructs puts another mem stock and retailer into the Danger Zone, and Eric Marshall of the Hodges Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Patrick Galley, chief executive and chief investment officer at RiverNorth Capital Management and the RiverNorth Funds, does two interviews on today's show, one focused on closed-end funds -- which he believes represent a strong value in today's marketplace and which could be the way that investors changing their bond allocations look to goose returns -- and the other mostly on special-purpose acquisition companies, SPACs. He says that while SPACs have been the rage in the last year, the boom was pushed ahead by the pandemic, where the heads of private companies were looking for fast, efficient ways to go public in uncertain times, and he thinks SPAC activity will calm down -- but not go away -- as the pandemic recedes. Also on the show, Davis Martin of the SPY Trade of the Day talks technicals and how the market is mostly giving green lights right now, and Drew Horter of Tactical Fund Advisors discusses exchange-traded funds and tactical investing in the Market Call.
Diana Henriques, author of 'The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust,' discusses the death of the man who was behind the world's largest investment fraud and the lessons that will forever be attached to his disgraced name. Henriques -- who corresponded with Madoff in prison up until 2017 -- gives her take on whether Madoff had any remorse for his crimes, whether he ever came clean about just what happened and why and more. Also on the show, Bruce Monrad of Northeast Investors Trust discusses fixed income and high-yield investments in a market environment with rates and inflation just hinting that they will be on the rise soon, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a small-cap value and momentum fund his ETF of the Week.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, says the economy and stock market aren't completely out of the woods of the pandemic, but we can see the sunlight from here.He says the market has been backing and filling as stocks react to the lingering coronavirus news but also start to price in the reopening and the economic boost to come. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research highlights a stock that has gotten a huge boost from the pandemic, but which he thinks will continue to grow impressively once normal life returns, Chuck answers an audience member's question on bond investing, and Jane Edmondson of EQM Indexes talks about lithium and battery-related stocks in the Market Call.
Emidio Checcone, co-manager of the DoubleLine Equity Value Strategy, says that the recent value surge is just the start of what should be a long run where the value investment staples dramatically outperforms growth. Checcone notes that at the end of 2019, value was lagging growth by record margins, and that differential grew bigger by 35 percent in 2020 as the stock market took off. Now, Checcone sees value as bouncing back and notes that the recent outperformance by value -- which beat growth by 10 points in the first quarter and is up by about 7 points year to date -- seems 'pretty meager' compared to what he expects for months and years ahead. In the Market Call, Tucker Walsh of the Polen U.S. Small Company Growth Fund explains his firm's flywheel framework for finding stocks with outsized potential for gains. And Chuck starts the show by answering three questions from audience members.
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist for Payden and Rygel, says he expects the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive and accommodative monetary policies through this year and potentially all the way to 2023, and he notes that whenever there is strong earnings growth with an accommodative Fed -- like we have right now -- tend to be good years for the market. Also on the show, Howard Gold of MarketWatch.com discusses his recent column suggesting that investors will mostly want to remain invested in domestic stocks, David Trainer makes AMC Entertainment the latest in his breakdown of meme stocks that he finds particularly dangerous, and Chuck answers an audience-member's question about allocating assets in a college-savings program.
Technical analyst Toni Turner of TrendStar Group says she is worried that the market has gotten back to record highs but that it has done it on low volume, noting 'when you get this quiet feeling' where everything seems perfect, almost any bad news could be a catalyst to drive the market back to support levels. In the Big Interview, John Johnson of Edgeworth Economics talks about how hard it is to size up the coming economic recovery and to determine which sectors and industry might lag behind as the economy lurches forward. In The NAVigator segment, Keith Ashton of Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund talks about collateralized loan obligations and other alternative credit types that can improve yields while balancing risks, and in the Market Call, it's Mark Sebastian of Karman Line Capital and OptionPit.com talking stocks.
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, says that inflation should be a key concern right now for investors and says that it is unavoidable given economic conditions, the massive government stimulus around the globe and more, but he doesn't think that inflation will derail the stock market because there will be strong economic growth for at least six months that will keep markets rolling. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks at net lease real estate investments with his 'ETF of the Week,' and Marketwatch columnist Brett Arends discusses how investors are living in a cycle where domestic stocks are popular because they are hot and hot because they are popular. In the Market Call, Simon Lack of SL Advisors talks energy and pipeline stocks.
Giorgio Caputo, head of multi-asset strategies for J.O. Hambro Capital Management, doesn't expect a huge jump in inflation, but he warns that anyone waiting for proof-positive of inflation, there's a good chance that their bonds will be underwater before they decide how to react. Thus, it is time today to create resilient portfolios that can manage through the risk, which he says means rotating to areas of the market that can benefit from a rising-rate and rising-inflation environment. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain investment Research discusses tax-collection/compliance firm Avalara and why he thinks it is a long-term builder of wealth, Ed Carson of Investor's Business Daily discusses another big jump in monthly investor optimism levels, and Jeff Auxier, manager of the Auxier Focus Fund talks value investing in the Market Call.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says investors should expect big economic growth numbers in the second and third quarters -- fueled by the release of pent-up demand plus inflation pressures -- but notes that nominal GDP growth of roughly 10 percent in those quarters will be in the United States and not around the world, leading to what he called a 'lumpy recovery,' mostly driven by the domestic action. In the Market Call, Manny Weintraub of Spears Abacus talks about 'growth at a reasonable price,' or as he prefers to call it 'super great stocks that are not going to kill you.' And Chuck answers an audience question about the 60-40 portfolio and about changing asset allocations.
Legendary stock market observer Roger Ibbotson -- whose landmark research is the basis for most people believing that large-cap stocks deliver 10 percent per year -- has said for years now that investors should not expect the future to stand up to the past. The chairman of Zebra Capital Management says in The Big Interview that low interest rates and other conditions will make it that the market is more likely to deliver about 8 percent on average over the next quarter century, still good but a significant drop off that must be planned for. Also on the show, Matt Schulz talks about a MagnifyMoney.com survey on how much Americans have been selling things out of their home -- and how much they have been making -- during the pandemic, David Trainer revisits GameStop -- which he liked prior to when it became a meme stock -- in the Danger Zone, and Mark Rank talks about his recent book, 'Poorly Understood: What America Gets Wrong About Poverty.'
Scott Kimball, portfolio manager of the BMO TCH Core Plus Bond Fund, says that there are some warning signs that the fixed-income market could be headed for trouble, including negative repurchase agreement rates between banks, which if they last long enough turn into 'an anvil dangling over credit markets' heads' and could lead to severe consequences in a matter of months. Also on the show, Michael Naughton of Lord, Abbett discusses the benefits of taking liquidity risk as a means of increasing yield, and how interval funds can help in that effort, Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Investors discusses the current wave of optimism among investors, showing up in both bullish sentiment and in the heavy percentage of their assets being put into stocks, and Bill Kornitzer of the Aperture International Equity Fund talks international stocks in the Market Call.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that over the last three months you have seen a rolling correction in technology and growth stocks, which has also expanded into energy, and most recently into small-caps. All have had draw-downs of more than 10 percent, but he says that other sectors have held up the market and are a good sign that the market can keep pushing forward strongly from here. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com goes all the way to Egypt and the Suez Canal to find inspiration for his ETF of the Week, David Botset discusses the way that investors view and use exchange-traded funds as measured by the 10th edition of Charles Schwab's ETF Investor Study, and Han Smith of The Haverford Trust Co. talks large-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group -- who joins Chuck every three months to discuss the market, investing and his personal battle with Lou Gehrig's Disease -- talks about how he would set up a portfolio that his family (and yours) could live with forever, discusses why the classic 60-40 portfolio will disappoint investors and much more in an extended Big Interview. Also on the show, Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, gives his take on markets, interest rates, inflation and more and, in the Left Brain thinking segment, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth Management discusses how the firm's value statement is so essential to picking and managing portfolios of growth stocks.
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that the broad market is trading roughly five percent below its fair value, which is a good target for returns over the rest of the year. Callahan is excited by the earnings forecasts for 2021 and 2022, citing 'outrageous year-over-year growth rates' as a reason to believe there will be good value stocks to be had. Also on the show, David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com, says that 3700 is a 'line in the sand' for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, noting that if the market can remain above that level it should be able to avoid a significant downturn during the current rotation from a technology and large-cap driven market to one led by small-caps and value stocks; Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the high percentage of investors who believe the stock market is rigged, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks stocks in the Market Call.
Robert Michaud, chief investment officer at New Frontier Advisors, says that reports on the death of the classic 60 percent stocks/40 percent bonds portfolio are greatly exaggerated, although he notes that the types of stocks and bonds that make up each part of the allocation are changing to keep pace with lower-for-longer interest rates and the changing stock market picture. Also on the show, David Trainer of NewConstructs.com takes on another company that has been getting a lot of pre-IPO buzz in the Danger Zone, Melanie Lieberman of ThePointsGuy.com discusses what many consumers want to see before they travel in a post-pandemic world, and Lamar Villere of the Villere Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion and Walsh, says that valuations are stretched and growth could be hard to find, but a new period of economic expansion coupled with a shift in market leadership -- with small caps and more coming to the fore -- will create new investment leaders for investors to pursue. He sees the rebound from coronavirus leading into a multi-year economic expansion. continuing for several years. Also on the show, Adam Grimes of MarketLife Trading and Talon Advisors says that there are few troubling technical signals suggesting any reason to lose confidence in the current bull market, which he also expects to be a multi-year move. In The NAVigator segment, Craig Packer of Owl Rock Capital talks about business-development companies and how the BDC loan market has been impacted by the pandemic, and Ryan Jacob of the Jacob Funds talks technology stocks in the Market Call.
Two wide-ranging and very different Big Interviews both touch on bitcoin today with Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst for HYCM, talking about how the skyrocketing price of bitcoin has impacted gold, how the cryptocurrency is increasingly viewed as a digital substitute for physical gold and the correlation between the two, especially with inflation on the horizon. Meanwhile, Scott Knapp, chief market strategist for CUNA Mutual Group, talks about how investors should be reacting to current market rotation, but also discusses where bitcoin can and should fit into the portfolio of working-class savers who are long-term investors rather than speculators. Also, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com heads to Japan for smaller companies and greater diversification with his 'ETF of the Week.'
Noted value manager Abhay Deshpande of Centerstone Investors actually compares value stocks to toilet paper, noting that you might not be thinking much about them when market growth is humming along, but at other times they become really precious. Right now, Deshpande says, there are plenty of good values to be found in the market, so long as you are mostly willing to avoid the technology stocks. Also on the show, Janice Quek of Left Brain Investment Research discusses Skillz Inc. as a high-growths tock that won't look quite right until it generates profits, Melissa Ridolfi of Fidelity Inc. talks about the firm's research on how retirement investors believe the pandemic has impacted their long-term savings, and Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.
Andrew Chanin of the Procure Space ETF -- ticker symbol UFO -- discusses how NASA's Perseverance mission to Mars has stoked interest in space as the next frontier in investing, and talks about how investors can keep their head in the stars but their feet on the ground when listening to fantastic stories of future potential. Also on the show, Jerremy Newsome of RealLife Trading talks technical analysis and says that he is loading up on some tech stocks that have been beaten up in the latest NASDAQ setback, particularly on hot names like Tesla and Teledoc that have seen some of the biggest setbacks, Ilan Kolet of the National Association for Business Economics covers the group's latest survey on when inflation and interest rates are likely to increase, and Robert Zuccaro talks about his new book, 'How Wall Street Reshaped America's Destiny.'
Martin Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors says he expects the Federal Reserve will get inflation up to its target of 2 percent, but that investors shouldn't expect much more than that despite the inflationary impact of economic stimulus, because there isn't rising pressure on wages that would be necessary to take inflation to problematic levels. Fridson discussed where he is turning to for yield now. Also on the show, Matt Hougan of BitWise Investments answers audience questions on bitcoin investing, Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses a mutual fund with a stylle problem and a penchant for dangerous stocks, and Chris Krumenacker of Bryn Mawr Trust talks stocks in the Market Call.
Markus Schomer, chief economist at Pinebridge Investments, agrees with the many observers who expect a booming economy as the coronavirus pandemic comes to an end, but he says that once the stimulus stops what will be left is an economy that is less productive with a lower long-term sustainable growth rate. While he doesn't expect runaway inflation or dramatically higher interest rates, digesting the growth will lead to weaker equity markets down the line. Also on the show, John Miller, head of municipals at Nuveen, discusses the surprisingly strong financial position that states and communities are in as the pandemic winds down, Ken Berman of Gorilla Trades gives his technical take on the market and John Barr of the Needham Growth and Needham Aggressive Growth funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says the economy will deliver stellar economic growth but that the deep hole it is coming out of will make progress slow, which is actually good news in that it means the pandemic recovery should last longer. Frick believes that inflation worries currently are overblown, saying that so long as unemployment is high and wage growth is low, significant inflation will have a tough time finding a foothold. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com says that pent-up demand should spark the retail industry, so he makes a retail specialty fund his ETF of the Week, Matthew Schultz discusses a LendingTree survey showing that many Americans save a few bucks by mooching their online services from the accounts of others, and Mike Larson of Weiss Ratings -- editor of Weiss' Safe Money Report -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says the 'reign of large-cap growth stocks may actually be ending,' with a weaker dollar and the first signs of rising inflation and the potential for higher interest rates triggering a market rotation that will favor small-cap, value and non-U.S. stocks. He also discusses the need for investors to start adjusting to inflation now, rather than waiting for its full-blown onset which he thinks will happen after a burst of economic growth and the 'return to normal.' Also on the show, Mark Hines of Left Brain Investment Research talks about real estate investment trusts and highlights New York Mortgage Trust is an income stock with growth prospects, and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com, discusses his latest book 'The New Retirement Savings Time Bomb' and discusses how today's political climate should have investors more concerned than ever about how taxes will impact their lifetime savings precisely when they need the money most.
Dan Davies, author of 'Lying For Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of the World,' says that financial scams that revolve around trust thrive in the world's most open/free markets and are something of a necessary side-effect to commerce. Davies notes that if everyone avoided financial stories that 'sound too good to be true,' they would have missed out on success stories like Amazon.com even more often than avoiding the occasional scam. Also on the show, Brady Dougan of Exos Financial -- which recently opened an ETF focused on specialty purpose acquisition corporations -- talks about how SPACs have changed over time, en route to becoming one of the hottest investment types for companies looking to go public today, and Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses closed-end funds and business-development companies in the Market Call.
Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research says that the U.S. economy is likely to see economic growth more in line with emerging markets over the next few quarters, but he warns that much of that action has already been priced into the stock market, meaning the economic boom may not add much to the stock market rally. Also on the show, Jeffrey Ptak of Morningstar talks about research showing that -- at least for now -- past performance is showing that it can be somewhat indicative of what happens next to a mutual fund, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses a stock with ties to Bitcoin that he expects to be wildly overvalued as it goes IPO, and Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors talks mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says the stock market's current valuations remind him of 20 years ago, when the stock market was peaking as the Internet bubble market burst; he also says that the bond market is creating a bubble, but that the impact of the stock bubble will be greater when it bursts, which he thinks will occur late in or after the economic recovery from coronavirus. Meanwhile, Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that the Standard and Poor's 500 is broken, failing to represent the broad domestic economy, which is one big reason why the market performed well while the economy was suffering in 2020. He expects that disconnect to continue -- but with the economy bouncing back and the stock market likely lagging -- going forward. Also on the show, Nick Holmes, manager of the Tortoise Essential Assets Income fund, discusses investing in water infrastructure, and how it is different from traditional infrastructure investing.
Jason Brady, chief executive officer at Thornburg Investment Management, says that the economy is poised for strong growth, but that high stock valuations and continued volatility will create a divergence between the economy and market that reverses the trend of 2020, when stocks grew fast while the economy sputtered. He suggests rebalancing portfolios because the 'trends that were in place for the last 12 months or so will be in place for the next 12.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes the Van Eck Vectors Social Sentiment fund -- a new issue that is trading in stocks that have been caught up in social media buzz -- his "ETF of the Week," Jeff Hoyt of SeniorLiving.org discusses a surprising survey about the impact of the pandemic on the finances of Americans age 60 and over, and Gerry Frigon of Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates and manager of a short-duration bond ETF, says that we're about to see 'the most synchronized global rebound in history for the economy,' noting that 'what comes with that is inflation' that most bond investors are not preparing for. Doty adds that while investors should be following a consistent long-term plan, they should leave some flexibility to pursue investments that are riding a current market wave, which currently means considering investments in travel technology, health care, cannabis and more. Also, in Left Brain Thinking, Noland Langford, chief executive at Left Brain Investment Research, says that Rite Aid Corp. high-yield bonds are particularly attractive, buoyed by the way the company benefited from the pandemic, plus a change in leadership that has all made the company significantly more secure than in the past. And Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Wealth Management talks growth-at-a-reasonable-price investing in the Market Call.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says while there are many reasons to be confident in the stock market, he worries that the plusses already have been priced in to current levels, especially because he thinks the market at current levels is significantly overvalued and that interest rates would have to stay as low as they are now for the next decade for prices to be considered fairly valued. Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac agrees that the stock market may have priced a rebound into current levels, but that means that the standard calendar effects -- like summer doldrums when the market moves sideways -- are likely to be in play again this year, a sign that things are returning more to normal. Also on the show, Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks about valuations and the ability to make great buys right now in the Market Call.
Preston Caldwell, senior equity analyst and head of U.S. economics at Morningstar Inc., says that coming out of the pandemic he expects gross domestic product (GDP) to hit 5.3 percent this year, to remain above 4 percent in 2022 but to decline to pre-pandemic -- and slowing -- levels of 2.2 percent by 2023, a burst that will propel the economy but that is not too long-lasting. In a second Big Interview, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Investments, talks about the state of cryptocurrencies now, discussing the ongoing evolution involving funds, thoughts on portfolio allocations, the ability to spend crypto and more. Also on the show, Chris Manderfield of Key Bank discusses how and why filing your taxes this year is going to feel different than possibly every other tax year in your lifetime, and David Trainer of New Constructs talks about three stocks -- Uber, Door Dash and Carvana -- that he says are more dangerous now despite good, recent earnings reports.
Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the technical outlook for the market is good, and likely to stay that way with low rates and a long upward equity trend. He noted that investors are being selective right now, looking for the biggest returns in areas that can stand out from the pack in current times, which is why gold has suffered in recent weeks despite conditions that should be positive for precious metals. Also on the show, legendary fund manager Paul Wick returns to discuss his closed-end fund -- Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth -- and whether investors should use that fund as a way to get his acumen on sale, Colin Dunn of the Cambiar SMID fund talks the atmosphere for small- and mid-cap investments now, and David Harden of Summit Global Investments covers low-volatility investing in a high-volatility market in the Market Call.
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that the recent blip in inflation isn't enough to send gold much higher soon, though it should have reminded investors of the precious metal's value as a hedge against inflation. He thinks that will be more valuable going forward, but said that there's still plenty of reasons to have a gold position and to expect it to perform now, despite a recent drop in gold's price. Also on the show: Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree discusses why he thinks the economy will show strong growth moving forward, but also how it must show that significant improvement or it will be regressing and struggling to overcome pandemic-related traumas; Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com puts the focus on small-cap value stocks with his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers audience questions about bitcoin with some help from Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investments.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, says the economy will boom in the next year or two in ways 'you haven't seen since the late Reagan Administration.' But even though the economy will fire on all cylinders, he says it will not return to the pre-pandemic status quo, with 'permanent economic scarring' in some sectors and in employment that could last for many years. Also on the show, Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst for Briefing.com, says that he expects the stock market to be on solid ground moving forward, but he warned that investors should expect returns that are below historic levels as the market slows to allow the economy to catch up. In Left Brain Thinking, Brian Dress, director of research at Left Brain Investment Research, discusses the high-yield bond market and how yield-driven investors need to include high-dividend stocks and business-development companies in their search for income.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says that a re-opening post-pandemic economy will release pent-up demand that fuels significant growth, overcoming current inflation concerns and more. She points to countries like Israel and Great Britain -- which are closer to full re-opening than the United States -- and says the economic strength shown there is a pattern the US is likely to repeat. Also on the show, two different interviews with long-term technical analyst Michael Sincere, first on where the market stands right now and then on his new book, 'Make Money Trading Options," and Bill McManus of Hartford Funds discusses the firm's recent survey which shows changing sentiments and ambitions for investors -- especially young investors -- in the wake of the Gamestop action on Wall Street.
Paul Wick, long-time manager of the Columbia Seligman Communication and Information Fund -- one of the most successful sector funds in history -- says that the long bull market in technology was built on top of falling interest rates, and that the next quarter-century will see a different rate trend that forces investors into more muted expectations. Wick says, however, that there are still reasonably valued tech stocks positioned to maintain explosive growth for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, Ken Tumin discusses a MagnifyMoney.com study showing that investors are giving up on savings bonds and certificates of deposit, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights the troubles ahead for Spotify and suggests investors look at Sirius-XM instead, and Dan Ives of the Wedbush ETFMG Global Cloud Technology ETF offers an extra helping of technology talk in the Market Call.
Neil Azous, chief investment officer at Rareview Capital, says that 10-year real US interest rates -- which have been on the rise recently and which jumped on Thursday -- are 'the most impending danger' to investor portfolios. He says the market is now acting as if the pandemic is nearly over and says that investors need to be thinking of the big economic themes beyond the re-opening, including the changing rate picture. Also on the show, Robin Gaster, the author of the new book 'Behemoth, Amazon Rising,' and Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, who discusses income-oriented stocks and real estate investment trusts in the Market Call.
Lucas White, portfolio manager for resources and climate-change strategies at GMO big-oil is due for a big rally. He notes that while oil prices are up 20 percent in the last year, they are still well below pre-pandemic levels, which gives them the potential to register massive gains as the economy starts to shake off its pandemic slumber. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks about SPACs -- special purpose acquisition companies -- and the ETFs that have jumped in on this new Wall Street Craze, and Brent Wilsey of Wiley Asset Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Stephen Dover, chief market strategist for Franklin Templeton, says in the Big Interview that he sees a rise in inflation, but thinks the economy can put off any serious bump in prices for as much as three years. He recognized the problems and issues for both stocks and bonds, but still says that investors should stick with domestic and international markets for stocks and bonds to take advantage of the market while it keeps running. Also on the show, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Investment Research discusses when and why investors might want to convert traditional individual retirement accounts into tax-free Roth IRAs, and Jack Murphy of Levin Easterly Partners talks value-oriented, event-themed investing in the Market Call.
David Souccar of the Vontobel Quality Growth fund says there are two markets right now, one featuring very speculative stocks and the other being real growth opportunities, and he notes that 'What you do not own will be as important as what you do own when we get out of this.' But Souccar isn't the only guest expecting tough sledding ahead for the market, as Jeffrey Bierman of TheoTrade.com notes that conditions could force interest rates higher -- which he says would be devastating to the market -- and that nine of the market's 11 sectors are significantly already overvalued, giving the market more downside risk than upside now. Also on the show, Simon Zhen of MyBankTracker.com on surprising consumer banking habits in the pandemic and Randy Warren of Warren Financial talking high-conviction stocks in the Market Call.
Scott Helfstein, executive director of thematic investing at ProShares, says the big investment themes of 2020 -- stay-at-home/work-from home, cloud computing, cyber security, remote technologies, streaming, gaming and e-commerce among them -- were driven less by consumer sentiment than by underlying fundamentals, and that solid footing will keep those sectors rolling even as the economy emerges from the pandemic over the course of 2021. Also on the show, Ron Ruffinott of Toluna discusses a survey on when Americans will be ready to get back out for travel, when they will revisit shopping malls and more, David Trainer of New Constructs discusses the importance of reading footnotes to find where companies exploit accounting loopholes, and Andy Braun of the Pax World Large Cap fund talks ESG investing in brand-name companies in the Market Call.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co. International, says that the disconnect between the market and the economy -- with exceptional markets but a poor economy -- is going to be reversed for the next few years, and said he expects the recovery to drag out for several years until unemployment levels return to pre-pandemic lows. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question about rewards cards versus cash-back benefits on credit cards, and closed-end fund expert Maury Fertig of Relative Value Partners talks about the broad trends he sees in the NAVigator, and returns to discuss specific investments in the Market Call.
Bob Fraser, chief financial officer for the Aspen Funds, says that a combination of strong consumers and a housing market with insufficient supply are creating a strong outlook for real estate and the broader economy for at least the year ahead. In the Big Interview, Fraser discusses changes to the real estate market that have been accelerated by the pandemic, but also says that he does not expect those trends to stall or back up as the economy moves into post-pandemic activity. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com tabs a unique China-focused fund as his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck answers two questions from audience members, and 'Turtle Trader' Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital talks stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Loukas, chief executive officer at TrueMark Investments -- which recently launched the DIVZ ETF that focuses on high yielding but low-volatility stocks -- says the financial services and health-care sectors are the sweet spots right now for generating yield without creating much froth in a portfolio. He says in the Market Call which stocks he particularly likes in each space. Also on the show, author Aaron Nannini discusses his new book, 'Cash Uncomplicated,' and how investors must change their mindset to succeed, Janice Quek from Left Brain Investment Research talks about an education stock that is a surprising beneficiary of the pandemic, and Chuck answers an elderly woman's credit-card question with the help of Bankrate.com's Greg McBride.
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that investors using the standard 60-40 stocks-to-bonds asset allocation need to reconsider their strategy because bonds will not deliver historic results in the future. Kalish suggests putting 20 percent of the bond weighting into alternatives, including real estate investment trusts and dividend-paying stocks. Kalish also discusses the return of inflation and where it goes from here, and gives his outlook on the market for 2021. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs.puts Beyond Meat in 'the Danger Zone,' saying its 'fundamentals are beyond ridiculous and its valuation is beyond absurd,' Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discusses a survey showing that barely half of Americans have more in emergency savings than they are facing in credit-card debt, and Bryan Lee of Blue Zone Wealth Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Mellon, says the economic activity is being miscategorized as a recovery because it is just a rebound until we see a return to something much closer to pre-Covid levels on unemployment and economic activity. That bodes well for a broader economic recovery once the pandemic has ended. Also on the show, John Kosar of Asbury research says the market is likely headed for a correction of 10 percent or more before it can get much higher, Bill Pekowitz of the Aberdeen Global Premier Properties Fund talks about how coronavirus 'put real estate in the crosshairs,' and Julian Koski of New Age Alpha talks about avoiding losers in the Market Call.
Justin Carbonneau of Validea.com says that small-cap and value stocks have bounced back hard since last fall's election, but that run has not excluded growth and momentum companies and more, leading to a broad-based rally that he believes can be sustained for a while. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a heart-themed ETF his Valentine's-related pick for 'ETF of the Week,' Rance Masheck of iVestPlus discusses trading platforms and why investors may want to use multiple brokerages, and Howard Dvorkin of Debt.com has some Valentine's-related advice on how couples can fall in love and not allow money issues to get in the way and spoil everything.
Everett Millman, precious metals specialist for Gainesville Coins, says that the market is 'in the early innings' of a cyclical bull market for commodities -- with oil and agricultural prices on the rise -- which typically is a precursor to an increase in the price of precious metals. Millman discusses the recent frenzy in silver trading and how it's likely to play out uneventfully. Also on the show, Mark Hines of Left Brain Investment Research highlights the firm's Chosen List and one stock that's on it in February, Kenny Rose, founder of FranShares talks about crowd-funded investing in franchise buyers, and author Jack Schwager talks about his latest book, 'Unknown Market Wizards.'
Andrew Foster, manager of the Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Fund, says the best bargains in emerging markets are in the countries that are still mired in coronavirus troubles, and he expects normalization to happen until at least 2022, with ‘tough sledding’ keeping markets there depressed in the interim, creating potential investment bargains. Also ont eh show, Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios says he expects inflation to reach 3.5 percent by the summer and in that time also thinks the Standard and Poor’s 500 to drop down to roughly 3,500 before bouncing back and hitting new highs in the 4,000 range by summertime, Chuck discusses what investors might take from the firing of longtime Fox Business host Lou Dobbs, and Art Amador of the AI Powered Equity fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, says investors may need to adjust expectations for market returns over the next five years, as stocks deal with changes in growth, bonds deal with low interest rates and the economy starts to face down inflation. Also on the show, Rodney Brooks of US News and World Report discusses the Biden Administration's potential plan to eliminate tax-deductibility of 401(k) plans -- favoring tax credits for contributions instead -- David Trainer of New Constructs discusses his firm's win on Gamestop as well as another pairing of stocks looking at what he describes as a 'micro bubble,' and Matt Breidert of the Ecofin Global Renewables Infrastructure fund covers stocks in the Market Call.
Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist from Ally Invest, says that worries about inflation being spurred by economic stimulus are real, and while she thinks the real troubles with rising prices are still a few years off, she expects an inflation spike this year and says it could be the hot topic this summer, as prices rise but the Federal Reserve holds the line on low interest rates. Also on the show, Wendy Huang of the London Stock Exchange Group, discusses why fund sponsors and businesses are finding it particularly lucrative and timely to open new issues overseas now, and Thomas Kirchner of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Janet Brown, chief executive at the FundX Investment Group -- which invests using an 'upgrader strategy' trying to ride the market segments that are hot -- says that market leadership has been changing and that while domestic large-cap growth stocks aren't falling out of favor, small-company issues, value investments and international funds are all looking like they are ready to take over market leadership in 2021. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an international small-cap fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Jeff Lipton of Oppenheimer and Co. talks the municipal bond market and why he thinks investors should favor munis over Treasuries this year, and Chuck takes an audience question about keep-the-change programs like the popular Acorns app.
Today, a Money Life first, with two money managers disagreeing about the same stock -- one saying he would buy it now while the other would sell it and avoid it -- on the same show. Learn about the stock and get a lot of broad market reaction and more today from Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment research, Ben Cook, the portfolio manager of Hennessy BP Energy fund, Ted Rossman of Creditcards.com and in the Market Call with Bernie Horn of Polaris Global Value fund.
Market strategist Lawrence McDonald of The Bear Traps Report, says that we're living through a 'blood-curdling bull raid, where the bulls are devouring the shorts,' and he says that historically that kind of action happens near market tops. He says the risk-reward balance looking out six months is 'pretty poor.' McDonald also discusses the GameStop situation, as does technical analyst Mark Newton of Newton Advisors, who talks about how the volatile market action shows up in and impacts the technical indicators. Also, Jeff Zananiri, head trader at JoyoftheTrade.com is in talking pairs trades and more in the Market Call.
Syndicated columnist Harry Rinker -- who has written his Rinker on Collectibles column weekly for more than three decades -- says that collections have value, but that collectors really should be focusing on the joy they get from their finds rather than the monetary value of their items because collectibles seldom pay off financially. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a small/mid-cap fund in the Danger Zone, and Jon Lansner of the Orange County Register talks about the GameStop situation and its parallels to a long-forgotten stock blow-up from the 1990s.
Long-time growth manager Sam Stewart of Seven Canyons Advisors says that the stock market is experiencing a lot of 'clear-air turbulence,' moving and reacting faster to things that average investors can't see, let alone react to. Coupled with stock prices that he says do not reflect the true growth rates of the businesses, he expects the market to have mild setbacks going forward, even amid the positives of a post-pandemic recovery. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a unique fund -- part metals play, part emerging-markets play -- his ETF of the Week, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies gives a technical take on the market, including what Wall Street's wild action on GameStop and other hot stocks is doing to technicals, and Patrick Healey of Caliber Financial Partners talks stocks in the Market Call.
Longtime value manager Bill Nygren of the Oakmark Fund says that active management tends to shine 'when parts of the market go to extremes that aren't sustainable,' noting that he sees more sectors and companies at unsustainable levels than he has seen in his career. As a result, he expects value investing to extend its recent run of strong performance into something much longer, fueled by a mix of economic recovery, a bump in inflation and a return to investing with an eye on risk rather than on simply buying whatever has been going up. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research discusses how Occidental Petroleum's recovery from a badly timed big buyout is creating an opportunity in its high-yield bonds, and Anne Kritzmire, an independent closed-end fund trustee, discusses why directors of closed-end funds can't get away with relying on the rubber stamp the way their counterparts at traditional mutual funds do.
Willie Delwiche, investment analyst at All Star Charts, says that the people forecasting doom and gloom and saying the market has come too far, too fast have missed the point that the current market rally is so broad and so strong -- and being propelled by economic recovery and bolstered by low interest rates -- that they're missing out on an upward move that he expects to consider. Delwiche did say he particularly likes the looks of some foreign markets, and he doesn't necessarily expect the current climb to continue unabated, but he's not worried about some short-term freefall caused by too much current optimism. Also on the show, Amy Crews Cutts discusses this week's National Association for Business Economics survey, which shows a significant increase in recovery hopes, as well as the growing divide caused by the current K-shaped recovery, Ron Lieber of The New York Times discusses his latest book -- 'The Price You Pay for College' -- and we revisit a recent Market Call interview with Bill Hench, manager of the Royce Opportunity fund.
Chris Manderfield joins Chuck to discuss KeyBank's 2020 Financial Resiliency Study, which showed that Americans have been building up emergency savings during the pandemic, with more than half of respondents saying they could immediately cover a $2,000 emergency, up sharply from a year ago and disagreeing with a number of other prominent studies released since Covid-19 overtook the global economy. Also on the show, author Michael Fox-Rabinovitz discusses the value of investing in buying fractional stakes in collectibles like art, wine, baseball cards and more, David Trainer of New Constructs suggests that traditional mutual funds and ETFs are headed for trouble, and Michael Underhill of Capital Innovations talks infrastructure investing in the Market Call.
It's a festival of optimism on today's show, as all of the guests are bullish on the market, or at least the little part of the market where they make their living. Michael Roomberg of Miller/Howard High Income Equity sees value stocks -- already on a run -- finding their long-term footing again once the pandemic ends, Mike Dowdall of BMO Global Asset Management sees solid opportunities in a number of sectors and global locations as the economy recovers from its Covid-induced doldrums, Dan Zanger of Chartpattern.com sees the potential for the standard and Poor's 500 to hit 5,000, and Michelle Steves of Baird Small-Cap Value fund agrees with the value assessments of others, but thinks the effects will be particularly strong in small- and mid-cap stocks, which have been left behind as the market advanced thanks to a few holdings but is poised for a more broad-based move now.
Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made the ProShares Online Retail ETF his pick as ETF of the Week, noting that the fund -- trading well above its 200-day moving average -- is poised for a long run because the explosive growth in online retailing seen during the pandemic is just a start. Also ont he show, Robert Farrington of The College Investor discusses the best free and paid software platforms for individuals looking to get the best for their own unique situation this year, David Waldron discusses his book on investing in stocks and talks about how investors can still find ways to beat the market, and Chuck answers three questions frmo audience members.
Brian Singer, co-manager of the William Blair Macro Allocation Fund, says that investors should be looking at making allocation changes now because the economy and market will come out of the pandemic changed, ready for a more broad recovery but also facing increased inflation as an offshoot of the economic stimulus. While not expecting inflation to take root yet, Singer agreed that certain inflation plays -- including energy stocks, the value investment style and more -- are likely to do well; he is less optimistic about the domestic market in general going forward. Also on the show, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth Management discusses how Enphase Energy has moved from a highly speculative stock that has gained more than 500 percent in the last year to a 'core holding' that he feels comfortable putting in anyone's portfolio, and Richard Howe of the Stock Spin-off Investing newsletter talks stocks in the Market Call.
Karl Mills of Jurika, Mills and Keifer, says that investors need to change their long-term asset allocations to adjust for the low yields and low real returns they're likely to get from bonds for at least the next 10 years. But with a strong desire and need for people to move forward from the coronavirus pandemic, he expects that the market and economy will be strong once the new normal is established. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs covers three stocks that were particularly deserving of their spot in the Danger Zone in 2020, and Malcolm Polley of Stewart Capital Advisors talks 'business-perspective investing' in the Market Call.
Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, says that the market's technicals are very strong, with all signs showing a new bull market that should carry the Standard and Poor's 500 to 4,200. 'You have to throw fundamentals and economic stuff out the window,' he says, 'because this market from a technical standpoint is set to go higher,' noting that the market could climb the wall of worry -- with brief respites and corrections -- all the way to 4,600. Also on the show, William Costigan of Guggenheim Partners says that low real interest rates and nominal Treasury yields at or below zero is forcing investors to 'be more creative, more thoughtful and do more homework' to find better fixed-income results, Ed Carson of Investor's Business Daily discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds talks about buying disruptive companies in the Market Call.
At a time when emerging markets investments look particularly promising, Laura Geritz of Rondure Global Advisors says that India is the country where she finds the best opportunities, while China is the market that she finds more troubling. Geritz discusses how the global pandemic -- which has curtailed the brutal travel schedule she keeps, normally spending about three-quarters of the year on the road -- has changed but also improved the investment research process, and why it has created opportunities for small companies around the globe. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a classic financial-sector fund his ETF of the Week, and James Abate of the Centre Fuds and Centre American Select Equity covers large-cap domestic stocks in the Market Call.
Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American Financial Corp., says that the real estate market will not be returning to 'normal' when the pandemic is done because it has been fundamentally changed by the way lives have been affected by work-from-home and other trends. Those issues led to a particularly strong year in 2020 and will contribute to another big year ahead, especially with the millennials aggressively moving into their home-ownership phases at a time when there is a low supply of available homes. Also on the show, Janice Quek of Left Brain Investment Research discusses Datadog, a stock that isn't part of the firm's recent cyber-security theme but which has similar growth characteristics and potential, JP Lee of Van Eck Vectors ETFs talks about the gaming and e-sports industries and Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses where consumers went right and wrong with their savings and spending last year.
Avi Gilburt, founder of Elliott Wave Trader, says that nervous investors should turn off the news, look at technicals and Elliott Wave analysis and join him in thinking the market's next move will be to 4,600 on the Standard and Poor's 500, a gain of more than 20 percent from current levels. But Gilburt goes further to say that he thinks the market will get to 6,000 before the current cycle ends, though it may not be until 2022 or '23 before it goes that far. Also on the show, University of Virginia business professor Gregory Fairchild, author of 'Domestic Emerging Markets," Matt Zajechowski of Digital Third Coast discussing a survey showing that a surprising number of Americans spent less money than expected in 2020, plus Chuck Carlson of the DRIP Investor newsletter talking about removing the emotion from investing during the Market Call.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says that while investors have good reasons to be nervous, the market and economy are set up for a good year and reasonable returns, provided there isn't some glitch in the end game of the pandemic. While he acknowledges issues like potential inflation, the disconnect between the market and the economy and more, Mullaney says those concerns will take a while before they truly impact the market. Also on the show, Dave King of Columbia Threadneedle discusses a survey of where investors expect to go to generate income this year, David Trainer of New Constructs reviews three Danger Zone picks that didn't work out in 2020 -- but that he still expects to pay off down the line -- and Bill Hench of the Royce Opportunity fund talks small-cap value investing in the Market Call.
Veteran technical analyst Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors is very bullish on the market, expecting it to move substantially higher -- ultimately eclipsing Dow 40,000 before the current market cycle ends -- driven by broad-based market leadership. Also on the show, Larry Antonatos of Brookfield Asset Management discusses real assets and infrastructure investments and the benefits of making them in closed-end funds, Howard Lindzon, founder of StockTwits talks about the unbundling of investments and how that is benefitting individual investors, and bear-fund manager Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report talks stocks in the Market Call.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, says market and economic conditions exiting the pandemic favor equity markets that are driven more by cyclical stocks -- which describes Europe, Japan and emerging markets -- which is why he thinks 2021 'may be the year for non-US equities to outperform domestic ...' Further, those same conditions have him favoring value stocks over growth, and he notes that the recent value rally should continue. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a brand new fund run by a familiar name his ETF of the Week, and Todd Rosenbluth of CFRA Research talks mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Bob Doll, chief equity strategist for Nuveen Asset Management, has been making annual predictions about the market and economy for some three decades, and today he releases his forecasts for the year ahead while reviewing his results from 2020, the first year in which he ever had to adjust his prognostications midstream. In 2021, Doll expects to see real GDP growth increasing at its fastest pace in more than two decades, forecasts an increase in inflation, a weakening of the dollar and a stock market that hits new highs even if it doesn't mount particularly impressive gains. Also on the show, Mark Hines of Left Brain Investment Research examines Zscaler, another cybersecurity stock that posted huge gains in 2020 but which he says is poised for much more ahead, and Chuck discusses the final tally from his keep-the-change savings program for 2020.
Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments says in the Market Call that value's recent run is likely to continue, but he notes that value-oriented investors need to be particularly careful right now, with the market near record highs and valuations a bit pricey. He also expects that investors will start seeing inflation sooner rather than later, and suggests preparing for it now. In the Big Interview, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com also discusses inflation, and while he expects that there may be a small increase in the short term, he mostly expects the economy to keep fending inflation at bay for the next few years, McBride gives is 2021 outlook for mortgage and credit-card rates, savings accounts and much more. Also on the show, Michele Schneider of MarketGauage.com talks technical analysis.
Chuck starts 2021 by diving into the dead pool of mutual funds that perished last year, talking about their foibles, follies and the lasting lessons to be learned from a rogue's gallery of failed funds. Also on the show, Joel Fleishman, author of "Putting Wealth to Work" talks about 'philantho-capitalism' and how wealthy donors are changing the world, and Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel talks stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group -- who has joined Chuck every three months in 2020 to discuss the market, investing and his personal battle with Lou Gehrig's Disease -- talks about how his unique circumstances have him viewing Covid as a blessing, bonds as broken and not worth buying for the foreseeable future, and about his hopes for the future. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of the Active Investment Company Alliance reviews the good, bad and ugly in closed-end fund investing from 2020, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com taps a red-hot cybersecurity fund as his ETF of the Week.
Ben Carlson, author of 'Everything You Need To Know About Saving For Retirement,' joins Chuck to discuss exactly what people need to know and do to at least get comfortable with building their own retirement, and talks about how the daunting process of building a retirement nest egg is easier and simpler than most people make it. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left brain Investment Research discusses cybersecurity stocks - and specifically Tenable Holdings -- and why they will keep running even after the pandemic boost the sector has experienced fades away, and Rob Spivey of Valens Research talk about survive-and-thrive stocks and more in the Market Call.
JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, says it would be healthy for the market to have a sell-off of up to 10 percent in the first quarter of 2021 before moving up from there. That said, he said the pace of stock market gains that have been evident through the holiday season will be hard to maintain in the year ahead. Also on the show, Brian Hamilton, chief executive officer at One, discusses how and why some institutions are offering 'early' advance stimulus checks, and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Dan Fuss, who has run Loomis Sayles Bond Fund for three decades -- but who is spry enough to have been named by Morningstar as its 'Outstanding Portfolio Manager' in 2019 -- says that all of the economic stimulus will affect the current economy the same way that past financial booster shots have, by creating inflation, which he says is already visible in a few areas but which he expects to become more visible in the next two years. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Fuss discusses the dangers of chasing yield in the current low-rate environment, the trouble with moving up the risk scale and more. Also on the show, Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar and David Trainer, president at New Constructs , taking the year's final trip to The Danger Zone.
In a wide-ranging show, one back note rings out in today's interview, namely the importance of diversification. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks at a fund that buys into countries showing strong momentum -- and that gained more than 10 percent last week alone -- as his ETF of the Week, noting that it can diversify portfolios that don't have enough international exposure. Gene Tannuzzo of Columbia Threadneedle discusses the need to diversify fixed-income holdings and notes how 2020 has highlighted how different bond types can both boost and smooth out yields, Cheryl Pate of Angel Oak Capital talks about the potential for the value stocks in the financial sector to stand out next year, and Craig Hodges of the Hodges Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says we are 'in the early part of a new cycle' that is going to include a pretty good bounce in economic growth next year and that should lead to reasonably good returns even as the economy and stock market come back into sync. He's expecting large-cap stocks to deliver 8 to 10 percent in the new year, which he termed as 'not wildly optimistic, but optimistic.' Also on the show, an extended Market Call that's all about investing in Fidelity funds featuring John Bonnanzio, editor of the Fidelity Monitor and Insight newsletter, and Left Brain Thinking, where Brian Dress, research director at Left Brain Investment Research, discusses why MercadoLibre -- a stock that's up 200 percent this year -- still has room to grow impressively in 2021 and beyond.
Neil Hennessy, chairman and chief executive officer at Hennessy Advisors and the Hennessy Funds, is optimistic about the stock market for 2021, and says that the Dow will overcome significant volatility to reach 35,000 -- roughly a 15 percent gain from current record levels --but he notes that it will also be a good year for value stocks and mid- and small-cap names and not just for big brand-name companies. Also on the show, Shane Bartling of Willis Towers Watson discusses the firm's 2020 Global Benefits Attitude Survey which showed that one in four full-time U.S. employees have seen their financial situation deteriorate this year, even though they were the lucky ones to hang onto their jobs amid the pandemic. Also, Barry James, portfolio manager for the James Advantage Funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.
David Jilek, chief investment strategist for Gateway Investment Advisors, says the market is poised for a reasonably good year ahead, but there are many potential trouble spots and risks. He notes that the market is pricing in greater implied volatility ahead for reasons related to the market, the pandemic, the economy, Federal Reserve policy and more more. He also notes that conservative investors are facing a period where their money isn't growing in low-rate fixed-income securities, forcing them to take on more risk to reach their goals. Also on the show, Meredith Stoddard discusses Fidelity's 2020 New Year's Resolution study, Kyle Guske of New Constructs talks in 'The Danger Zone' about why legacy credit ratings -- using traditional metrics and measures of the credit raters -- can create false impressions of corporate strength, and Chuck discusses the lists of the top companies that are being released for 2021 and whether investors should put any stock in these lists of the 'best stocks.'
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says he expects a "digestion of gains" that could lead to a pullback or a mild correction, but he says that history says there are "two-plus years ahead of us before we have to start tiptoeing through the possibility of another bear market." Crit Thomas says that it is going to be a better year for consumers than the market, because the market has already discounted the recovery. XConsumers will be happy but the market has anticipated this, so even though we are starting anew bull market ... so even though expected returns booking even beyond 2021 may be more moderate, the early stages of the bull market suggest we should have a tilt towatrd risk on
Noted bond fund manager Mary Ellen Stanek, chief executive officer at the Baird Funds, says that while the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates lower for longer, investors looking to generate yield need to be cautious because the places providing the best returns are a significant step up the risk spectrum. She also noted that while mortgage securities have been viewed by many as improving yields, she is underweight on them now because they have significant refinancing risk that could leave investors with cash to reinvest but little or no attractive places to put it. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an oil-services trend play his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers two questions from the audience, one a tax question with some help from IraHelp.com founder Ed Slott.
Jim O'Shaughnessy of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and author of 'What Works on Wall Street' discusses how what is working now in the pandemic market is the same as what has always worked, namely patience and diversification. In a wide-ranging interview, O'Shaughnessy makes it clear that investors can get by with simple portfolios and without complex new and alternative investments. Also on the show, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth Management discusses a few growth stocks in a value sector, financial services, and John Augustine of Huntington Private Bank talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, says that the disconnect between the stock market and the economy -- what the market running ahead as the economy sifts through pandemic fallout -- will mend itself late next year or in 2022, and that the result will likely be somewhat muted returns for the stock market. Nick says the market should remain positive with pockets of volatility, but that returns are likely to be muted compared to the bounceback investors have seen in 2020. Also on the show, Josh Jamner of ClearBridge Investments discusses the firm's latest Anatomy of Recession report, and says that most economic factors show that we are much closer to recovery than we are to a double-dip recession, and Jordan Waldrep, chief investment officer at Truemark Investments discusses stocks in the Market Call. Plus, Chuck pays tribute to James Coonan, the founder of the American Association of Individual Investors, who passed away at age 89 on Dec. 14.
Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Total Return fund, says that he does not see income-oriented investors getting much help on the yield front in 2020.With that in mind, he explains that investors may want to look at the mortgage market, which he suggested can be a great substitute for Treasuries, generating more yield with less risk. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs discusses some stocks that investors love for the wrong reason but that fiduciaries -- financial advisers -- should hate, Chuck answers an audience question about where to put what might be considered piggy-bank savings, and Chris Mack of Harding Loevner makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.
Steve Nguyen, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management, says that the development of coronavirus vaccines will have short-term and limited impact on health-care and pharmaceutical stocks, but that the change in administrations and the advent of new technologies will have a much more long-lasting and positive effect on the sector. Also on the show, James Clark of Nuveen Asset Management talks about real assets and infrastructure investments, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses a survey showing consumers dislike deferred interest credit cards, and Michael Robinson, chief technology strategist at Money Map Press, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at ICMA Retirement Corp. and Vantagepoint Investment Advisors, says that 2020 should have taught investors the benefits of focusing on the long-term, where the results matter more than the day-to-day journey, and he stressed that 2021 will be a year in which diversification is helpful -- because the market will find different sources of leadership as it recovers from the pandemic -- to go along with what ultimately will be 'surprisingly good' results. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a unique take on entrepreneurship his ETF of the Week, Simon Zhen of MyBankTracker.com talks about what people do with their spare change, and C.T. Fitzpatrick of Vulcan Value Partners says in the Market Call that people who say value investing is dead aren't defining the style correctly.
Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, says that domestic stocks are priced to deliver a 'terrible performance' for the 2020s, although investors who invest heavily into international and emerging markets will mitigate the domestic stock situation and show strong overall portfolio results. Also on teh show, Ben Johnson, director of global ETF Research at Morningstar talks ETFs in the Market Call and Janice Quek of Left Brain Investment Research checks in from Singapore to discuss a company that is ni a surprising market to benefit from COVID pandemic fallout, but which she sees as having explosive growth as the economy returns to normal.
Rob Sharps, head of investments at T. Rowe Price, says that unfulfilled demand that has been building up throughout the pandemic will be unleashed when the coronavirus threat is diminished and it will fuel a major rebound in many of the stocks and sectors that have been beaten down this year. Sharps is optimistic that the market can push higher, though he warns that any recovery will be uneven and says that income investors will need to get creative to overcome low interest rates. Also on the show, Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark, Jason Thomas says the current economic environment has made it easy for typical investors to miss out on the market's run back to record highs, and while he is optimistic about the future, he notes that average investors may still miss out. And Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services says that the market's technicals are showing that a pullback is in the offing; he expected the Standard and Poor's 500 to have a decline of more than 10 percent back to October lows before it can rebound to set new long-term highs.
Ed Slott, the founder of IRAhelp.com, says that while retirement savers do not have to take 'required minimum distributions' this year -- a move made as part of the government's Covid-19 relief package -- he believes many investors who don't need an RMD could benefit from pulling money this year, making the money taxable at a time when earnings may be down as a result of the pandemic. He also discusses other year-end steps and why -- this year more than most -- key tax-reduction strategies are more accessible than in normal years. Also on the show, Glenn Williams from Primerica discusses the firm's recent survey of middle-income Americans and the impact coronavirus has had on their finances, David Trainer of New Constructs talks about index investing in the Danger Zone, and Chuck answers three audience questions about trading.
Brian Beitner of Chautauqua Capital Management says that investors are risk-on right now -- despite a market and global economy that could have trouble shaking off the impacts of coronavirus -- at a time when they likely should be risk-off, meaning more conservative and fearful of a downturn. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance answers audience questions and discusses how big discounts don't actually make closed-end funds 'cheap' on a relative basis, Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis discusses why the market's technicals have him optimistic right now, and Ken Laudan of the Buffalo Discovery fund talks health-care and pharmaceutical stocks in the Market Call.
Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management -- one of the nation's leading financial planners -- and Axel Merk of the Merk Funds agree that forecasts tend to be misleading, meaningless, overplayed but mostly wrong. In separate interviews, they talk about why they're not in favor of making predictions, but then cover wide stretches of ground, with Merk discussing the market for equities, gold and more, while Ritholtz discusses the importance of being able to ride out the trouble spots and the twists and drops that happen between now and when some long-term market projection comes true, noting that investors might have entered 2020 expecting low double-digit returns but many didn't get them because they couldn't stand the market's steep decline in February and March. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com discusses a dividend-investing strategy that he says can be an income replacement or supplement in a portfolio.
Frank Holmes, chief executive at US Global Investors, says that key indicators suggest that central banks will keep priming the pump for the global stock market well into 2021 and beyond, and that most current trouble signs will simply turn into short-term dips that represent good buying opportunities as the market and economy emerge from the coronavirus pandemic. Also on the show, Noland Langford from Left Brain investment Research goes to an unlikely place -- the shopping mall -- to find two surprising stocks with the kind of near-term growth potential he likes, and Rob Lutts of Cabot Wealth Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
D.R. Barton Jr., editor of Straight-Up Profits, says that investors have so much money currently on the sidelines that when they start to put the money to work, it will force the market higher no matter the other market conditions, which is why he will be 'buying hand over fist' every market dip for the foreseeable future. Barton particularly likes cyclical stocks right now, but also likes the undervalued industrial companies and says that financials represent his favorite beaten-down sector. In the Big Interview, George Kinder of The Kinder Institute of Life Planning discusses how investors should size up their own good fortunes during the troubles of 2020 and find ways to be mature with their money, making them more generous during the holidays this year. Romana King discusses Zolo.com's recent survey showing how badly consumers overestimate their financial knowledge, and the Market Call has Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Asset Management talking about how individuals can apply the 'endowment method of investing' using ETFs in their own portfolios.
David Trainer of New Constructs has railed against Tesla Corp, in the past, putting the company and its stock in the Danger Zone on multiple occasions. He revisits the stock now, as it is entering the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, noting that status won't keep the company flying at its current too-high levels forever. He believe the economic value of the company is less than 10 percent of its current price. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses the site's latest survey of credit-card fees, cannabis banking expert Jason Wilson of ETF Managers Group discusses pot stocks and how they're responding to increasing legalization via elections held across the country, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com talks about what investors should seek out in funds during the Market Call.
Jonathan Browne, director of closed-end fund research at Robinson Capital, discusses the yield challenges facing investors today, when low interest rates have challenged the traditional 60-40 portfolio and when bonds have performed in lock-step with the stock market. He talks about how closed-end funds offer an 'alternative light' solution to some of those issues. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses the site's new survey on how the coronavirus is re-shaping holiday shopping habits this year, Howard Dvorkin of Debt.com on how to steer clear of holiday spending troubles this year, and Kevin Miller of the E-Valuator Funds talks ETFs and traditional mutual funds in the Market Call.
Mark Hines, managing director at Left Brain Investment Research, says that the 5G evolution is fueling growth among major players -- notably Nvidia -- that is going to continue even when the pandemic ends and the stocks that have benefitted from providing improved stay-at-home technology have seen the big wave settle down. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an ESG fund his ETF of the Week, Lauren Kaminsky of EZ Pawn Corp. discusses the pawn business -- the world's oldest form of lending -- and how pawnbrokers have seen unexpected trends during the coronavirus pandemic, and George Young of the Villere Funds talks stocks, dividends and valuations in the Market Call.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, says that economic surprises over the last six months have built up 'animal spirits' for the market to push higher, and that once vaccines help to diminish the impact of the coronavirus pandemic that the stock market is headed higher for a long time, delivering low double-digit returns next year. Opening the show talking technical analysis, Jeff Bishop of RagingBull.com talks about why he thinks Santa Claus will be coming to the market in late December and why he isn't currently worried about a big decline from near-record high stock-market levels. Also on the show, author Lawrence Cunningham discusses 'Quality Shareholders' and why individuals should gravitate toward companies that seek out those long-haul focused, patient investors, and Matt Zajechowski of Digital Third Coast discusses the firm's latest research into how the pandemic has changed consumer spending habits.
Clyde McGregor, who recently celebrated his 25th anniversary at the helm of the Oakmark Equity and Income Fund, says that fixed income simply will not deliver the kinds of income investors have traditionally sought and expected, so investors have to change expectations and strategies to generate more yield. Also on the show, Munish Malhotra of Cambiar Investors notes that 'Cheap is not value,' David Trainer puts an upcoming IPO in the Danger Zone and Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate discusses the firm's latest survey on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on consumer behaviors.
Sir Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics for his groundbreaking work on 'deaths of despair' says that statistics don't support the critics of coronavirus shutdowns, who suggest that economic woes will lead to increased suicides among displaced workers and business owners. In a wide-ranging interview, Deaton discusses the economic impacts of the virus and more. Also on the show, Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial says that the tax-loss selling season for closed-end funds should be particularly interesting in 2020, given the volatility funds saw throughout the year, and Chuck talks about his ultimate holiday gift for children this year, stocks, which are easier than ever to give as a present.
David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks in the Market Call about the importance of making good buys with the right long-term prospects because the ideal investment behavior would be to hang onto those stocks for years; selling has a way of not working out so well, Brady notes. In the Big Interview, Alan Gayle of Via Nova Investment Management discusses the market and the economy, noting that the new normal society is moving towards for after the pandemic 'will be business as usual, done in unusual ways.' Also, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks about investing in small-cap stocks through his 'ETF of the Week.'
Blair Sheppard, author of 'Ten Years to Midnight: Four Urgent Global Crises and Their Strategic Solutions," discusses current situations that threaten orderly governments, economic systems and more in the United States and around the globe and talks about the steps that can be taken to avoid a dark future. Also on the show, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth management discusses how the election did -- or didn't -- change the outlook on growth stocks the firm liked before the voting, and suggests a new entry in a sector that's warming up, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com talks about why many Americans are missing out on current mortgage refinancing opportunities, and Bill Stone of Stone Investment Partners gives his take on the market and the economy.
Howard Dvorkin of Debt.com discusses his site's study of 1,200 adults, of whom six in 10 expect to spend less this holiday season, even though that cutback is not caused mostly as a result of the pandemic, but rather is because of the muted emotions of the socially dstanced holiday. Dvorkin says that every year the surveys show that consumers enter the holiday season with good intentions of spending less, and they never wind up holding to those spending goals once they actually get to shopping. Also on the show, David Dowden of MacKay Municipal Managers discusses the outlook for muni bonds, John Divine of U.S. News and World Report sounds off on the prospects for Pfizer, Moderna and the investors who are making a play on the vaccine stocks now, and we revisit a recent Market Call chat with Chuck Self of iSectors.com.
Ed Shill, portfolio manager for the QCI Balanced Fund says in today's Market Call that he is feeling defensive about the market now, putting airbags on portfolios with more cash to insulate against a market he describes as overbought. He is looking into stocks that have been underbought, the names that have been suffering during the pandemic but that stand to benefit as the economy finally moves through the illness and starts to reopen more fully; that means airlines, travel companies and much more. In the Big Interview, however, Ed Confrancesco of International Assets Advisory goes the other way, suggesting that investors ride with the hot work-from-home kind of names that have led the market's rebound from March lows. Also on the show, Amy Pirozzolo of Fidelity Charitable discusses the pandemic's impact on volunteerism and charity, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs revisits some past Danger Zone picks that are no longer on the firm's 'most dangerous list,' some of which were big winners and others that defied gravity and logic.
Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad's Utility Investor, says in the Market Call that while the stock market bounced back from its late winter freefall, some groups -- including utilities -- were left behind in the recovery. He expects them to play some catch-up and to be a reason why the market drives higher, especially in 2021 as there is a more clear resolution to the pandemic. Also on the show, Robert Bush, director of closed-end funds for Calamos Investments, discusses discounts, convertible securities and more in the NAVigator, Matt Harris of HighTower Advisors talks technicals now, and financial adviser Christopher Manske chats about his new book, 'The Prepared Investor.'
Stephen McKee, editor at the No-Load Mutual Fund Selections and Timing newsletter, says that a mix of investment styles are in his methodology's top ranks, which means that the market's advance is broad-based, and 'things are in-gear for the upside.' poised for more. He says all cap sizes in domestic and international categories are clicking now, and should continue. There's also a lot of bond talk on today's show, with Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com making a high-yield issue his 'ETF of the Week," and Venk Reddy of Zeo Capital Advisors talking short-duration bonds and social investments via junk bonds.
Bond-fund manager Bruce Monrad, chairman of the Northeast Investors Trust, discusses the way that investors may want to look at junk bonds as a way to boost a portfolio's equity returns while reducing volatility, especially in these low-rate and low-yield times. Monrad notes that high-yield bonds often edge the stock market during troubled times, and explains why the recovery from the pandemic might be a period to expect that. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research discusses investing in China and in one of China's biggest and best known stock success stories now, Ed Carson of Investor's Business Daily talks about the news site's latest investor optimism survey -- which shows that only the winning electorate feels much hope right now -- and Matt King of King Wealth Advisors covers mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden and Rygel, says the economy is recovering faster than most people expected, and that it will pick up steam next year as the services sector catches up a bit to the goods and products businesses, which have already gotten back to pre-pandemic levels. Cleveland expects a vaccine and growing economy to buoy the stock market. In the Market Call, Daniel Kern of TFC Financial Management talks funds and ETFs, and Chuck starts things off discussing how investors need to look past the financial firm's reputation to consider whether an investment is appropriate for them.
Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flyn says in the Market Call that the wild swings in headlines running from the tumultuous election through the pandemic and the twists and turns of the economy have left investors with few signals to read. He sees the market hibernating while investors try to figure out how to decipher signals, and expects a slow fourth quarter and start to 2021, and he suggests holding more cash than normal while waiting for it to play out. In the Big Interview, Kirk Chisholm of Innovative Advisory Group discusses modern portfolio theory, the 4 percent retirement-spending rule and other basic tenets of personal finance and discusses why those old saws don't serve investors so well any more. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs explains why BOX belongs in the Danger Zone, and Chuck answers a question about funds based on the social (ESG) version of the Standard and Poor's 500 Index.
Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund, an absolute-value manager, says in the Market Call that the rising tide of the market has not been lifting all boats, but rather has been lifting the top technology like it's 1999. That makes it hard to find good values, but Frank discusses a few and some of the surprising industries he is finding them in right now. Also on the show, Rick Redding of the Index Industry Association discusses the ongoing explosion in the creation if indexes and how that impacts both the fund industry and individual investors, Brian Schaffer of Prosek Partners talks about activism in closed-end funds and the importance of good communications to ease tensions in those corporate battles, and Lance Ippolito of theFutureofWealth.com talks the market's technicals.
Terri Spath, chief investment officer at the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that muni bonds, high-yield corporate bonds and emerging market stocks -- all of which were becoming a strong play leading up to the election -- are in a sweet spot after the voting, and noted that are mostly under-represented in investors' portfolios, which should make them particularly interesting now. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to emerging markets -- and specifically China -- for the ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a question about dividend reinvestment plans, and Christopher Zook of CAZ Investments tackles thematic, growth-at-a-reasonable-price investing in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Miller, portfolio manager at Incline Investment Advisors, says in the Money Life Market Call that the current economic recovery has been 'overstated,' leaving a division between the stocks that work now and those that will be good to own after the recession. That recession, however, is something that Miller believes we have not emerged from, that it's the same downturn that started before the pandemic hit, triggering the market's fall in February and March. He expects a bounce-back for the market as the economy recovers. Also on the show, Janice Quek of Left Brain Investment research discusses why investors want to add Southeast Asia to their portfolio and covers one emerging-markets stock that she thinks is particularly promising now, Bill Costello of the Westwood Funds talks about energy and utility companies now, and Chuck takes an audience-member's question about the tax-efficiency of exchange-traded funds.
Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, expects the market to find conviction and direction after the election, whether it takes a turn for the dark with strong selling -- a week or two with no snap back that could trigger a bear market -- or moves back to record highs and holds those peaks to start a new run up. Whichever way the market goes, Grimes says investors need to avoid being on the wrong side of the new momentum, buying a dip that turns into something bigger or taking profits but missing out on a growth wave. Also on the show, Sudarshan Murthy of GQG Partners talks emerging markets and whether they have advantages from coming through the pandemic ahead of other parts of the world, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses the lengths consumers are going to when it comes to iPhones, and Chuck Self of iSectors talks exchange-traded funds and how 'minimizing downside risk' ultimately leads to bigger profits in the Market Call.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says Wayfair, Carvana, Beyond Meat, Dropbox and Spotify Technology all qualify as popular stocks -- despite being saddled by what the Nashville-based firm describes as 'misleading earnings' -- that are headed for trouble, and that they will hit that rough patch soon no matter who wins the White House in Tuesday's election or how they change economic policies moving forward. Also on the show, Giorgio Caputo of J.O. Hambro Capital Management discusses 'green income,' Gregg Fisher of Quent Capital discusses small-cap stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses the results of his annual Halloween trade-or-treat, cash-or-candy efforts.
Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, says that the market and economy are likely to slog through the election, the rest of the pandemic and the continuing recovery, but will come out positioned for a broad recovery late next year. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of the Active Investment Company Alliance answers audience questions about investing in closed-end funds, Toni Turner of TrendStar Trading Group discusses the current market fight -- visible in the technicals -- between buyers and sellers, and Jeff Zananiri, head trader at JoyoftheTrade.com talks stocks in the Market Call.
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at SP Global Ratings, expects to see impressive growth numbers, but he doesn't find them exciting because the economy still has a significant hole to climb out of, and that the resurgent virus, trouble with stimulus and more are standing in the way of what should be a more-exciting recovery over the next few years. In another interview on the show, Esty Dwek, head of global market strategy for Natixis Investment Managers, agrees with a number of Gruenwald's points; she also notes that the comparative numbers are weird, but says that she expects the economy to get back to pre-pandemic, 2019 economic numbers, with the key issue being whether it happens before the end of 2022. This show also features Greg McBride of Bankrate.com on the site's landmark checking-account survey,. and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com making an online-retail specialty fund his ETF of the Week.
Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research says that earnings season is 'the Super Bowl and Olympics all rolled into one,' and with four of the FAANG stocks reporting on Thursday, he discusses in this week's Left Brain Thinking segment how to use earnings reports, transcripts and more to identify opportunities in stocks and bonds. Also on the show, author Roger Martin discusses his book, 'When More is Not Better: Overcoming America's Obsession with Economic Efficiency,' Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com talks about the troubles with store credit cards, and Maz Jadallah of AlphaClone covers the favorite stocks of hedge funds in the Market Call.
Mark Newton of Newton Advisors says that he expects the year to play out like 2018, when the stock market peaked in October and then suffered through the end of the year. Newton says that if the Standard and Poor's 500 breaks through 3,380 -- a level it nearly hit on Monday -- investors could be in for a slippery slope through December, a decline exacerbated by struggles among technology stocks and broader pressures facing popular stocks. Also on the show, Brian Estes of Off The Chain Capital talks bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, Sarah Berger of MagnifyMoney.com discusses the regrets investors report feeling over stocks they sold at the beginning of the pandemic, and David McInnis of the East Paces Group discusses how to deal with the volatility he expects to see after election day,
Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors,says that while investors sense the disconnect between the market and economy, the stock market has been driven by a few giant businesses that have done well, even as the small-business community has suffered through the pandemic. Mahajan believes investors have a good opportunity now to position themselves for the rally that she thinks will be driven next year by improving economic data. Also on the show, Holly Ward discusses the latest outlook survey from the National Association for Business Economics, author Rob Hatch talks about making simple, straightforward decisions in today's complex world, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts a popular name-brand in the Danger Zone.
Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios says that he expects the market to correct to where the Standard and Poor's 500 index down as low as 3,000 before a rally in the first two months of 2021 -- largely the result of the government's next stimulus package -- possibly bringing the index back to 4,000. At that point, however, Welsh is worried that the bull market could run out of steam, vulnerable to a 'much bigger correction' as the coronavirus problem drags on. Also on the show, Bryce Rowe of National Securities Corp. talks about the strong opportunities in business-development companies now, author Marc Levenson talks globalization and his new book on how what started as moving stuff around has now become a way to move ideas, and we rebroadcast a recent Market Call covering small-cap stocks with Jay Kaplan of the Royce Funds.
Brent Schutte of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management says that the market and the economy are not as disjointed and disconnected as they seem at first blush, noting that the pandemic created an 'economic valley' that has mostly been filled by adaptive companies, federal policies, science pursuing vaccines and more. That has created a situation where Schutte believes the market can continue to performa and the economy can grow even with the virus problem unresolved. Also on the show, Tom Lydon makes a brand-new mid-cap focused fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Jim Callinan of Osterweis Emerging Opportunity fund talks about the secular market opportunities he sees happening now, and Susan Dziubinski of Morningstar Inc. discusses how the health-care industry is being reshaped by coronavirus.
Financial author, blogger and podcaster Meb Faber, chief investment officer at the Cambria Funds, says in a wide-ranging interview that investors need to stay focused on the process -- costs, fees and asset allocation -- and ignore 2020's constant noise. He discusses the ways that people fear lions and sharks but that it's creatures you aren't scared of -- like mosquitos and other people -- that actually cause the most deaths; likewise, investors focus on the news and not the boring stuff that truly determines how well their portfolios will perform. Also on the show, David Ellison, manager of Hennessy Large-Cap Financial and Hennessy Small-Cap Financial discusses banking, fin-tech, electronic and digital payments and more, and Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks about Crowdstrike and Uber, two growth stocks that earned a green light recently from the firm's disciplined research process.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist for Crossmark Global Investments, says that while we might expect the market to react to the election and to fundamentals, the foreseeable future of the market will be driven by what happens with Covid-19 and the way the pandemic plays out. She expects the market to jump back clearly once we get through the pandemic and see a reduction in cases and the beginning to the end of a pandemic. Also on the show, long-term trader Michael Sincere says he thinks the disconnect between the economy and the market needs to be resolved and that he expects that the economy's dour message will win out with the stock market suffering as a result, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses how grocery spending has changed during the coronavirus troubles, and Chuck discusses the 10-year anniversary of his heart attack and how his life has changed since then.
Alexi Panagiotakopoulos, chief investment officer at Fundamental Income, discusses the bifurcated situation in commercial real estate -- where properties for shopping malls and other uses seem to be headed for extinction while support properties like gas stations and drive-thrus is exploding -- stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, while Scott Helfstein, executive director of thematic investing for ProShares, talks about how the pandemic has created transformational change that will make four specific industries the places to be going forward. Also on the show, David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight discusses the firm's 2020 Global Retirement Index, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a technology fund in the "Danger Zone."
David Tepper of Tepper Capital Management in San Francisco explains why he uses closed-end funds almost exclusively in his client portfolios, noting that in today's market conditions there are plenty of opportunities to build a well-diversified portfolio at a discount, and adding that even long-term closed-end fund investors need to be prepared to take advantage of times when discounts narrow suddenly, creating short-term chances for bigger-than-expected gains.
Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com says that while the election could influence the sector, alternative energy companies are worth watching for now, and buying when the time is right. Lydon noted that a Joe Biden win in November could help solar-energy stocks, while a Donald Trump victory might hurt it, but the Invesco Solar ETF -- his ETF of the Week -- is so far above its 200-day average that investors should wait for a pullback to consider buying,but long-term should consider making solar a portfolio choice. Also on the show, author Margaret Heffernan discusses how to navigate the future in these particularly uncertain times, Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate talks about the impact Covid-19 is having on mortgage payments and the real estate market, and Hank Smith of Haverford Trust Co. covers stock investing in the Market Call.
Retail specialist Dana Telsey of the Telsey Advisory Group says that the pandemic accelerated all of the big changes that were facing retailers and accelerated them, and while the result has been bankruptcies, consolidations and more -- and we won't be out of the woods until there's a stimulus package that boosts consumers -- there also are clear signs of how retail will survive and how the future for stores, malls and Internet offerings will look different. In another Big Interview, Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, says that the market and economy are moving in the right direction -- generally in the direction of the 'old normal' -- but that it has been making that trip slowly and the pace likely won't pick up without resolution of stimulus efforts, a vaccine and more. Also, Brian Dress, director of research at Left Brain Investment Research, discusses the process that blends science with art to come up with names like Beyond Meat, a hot stock that he says still has major growth potential, and Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about the high costs of retail-store credit cards and how they may not be the bargain they're made out to be based on check-out line discount promises.
Buck Klintworth, portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says that technicals show that the market's early October rise is no fluke and should have the ability to keep going, though if it moves the Standard and Poor's 500 Index to 3,600 it will have reached his expected level for year-end and will likely chop around and be volatile but mostly sideways into 2021. Also on the show, Kathy Bostjancic of Oxford Economics USA gives her take on how the economy can recover from the pandemic and how close the nation is to a long-lasting problem if economic stimulus is not offered to help the country get through troubled election and holiday seasons, and Allan Sloan of the Washington Post -- a legendary business journalist -- discusses President Trump's financial history and what it suggests he will do as he faces debt and tax issues that have made headlines in recent weeks.
A new survey of 401(k) participants done by Charles Schwab and Co. shows that baby boomers now believe they need a $1.6 million nestegg to retire comfortably, with millennials saying they must amass $2 million. Catherine Golladay of Schwab joins Chuck to discuss how and why retirement savers think reaching their goals is harder and requires more money. Also on the show, Doug Nordman discusses his new book, 'Raising Your Money-Savvy Family for Next Generation Financial Independence,' David Tainer of New Constructs warns of the dangers of ignoring footnotes in corporate filings, and we rebroadcast a recent Market Call interview with Eric Heyman of Olstein Strategic Opportunities.
Four very different experts join Chuck on today's show, and while they each maintain a different investment approach, they all agree that they like the looks of the market right now and they expect things to improve with the resolution of the election. Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com talks technical analysis and notes that he is nearly fully invested, Ron Sanchez of Fiduciary Trust Co. International examines the fundamentals and notes that he is constructive over the long haul, and expects the market to grind higher through choppy, volatile times for the rest of the year. Peter Vanderlee of ClearBridge Investments and the closed-end LMP Capital and Income fund discusses the importance -- and good value -- of dividend stocks to income generation now, and quantitative manager Robert Zuccaro of Target QR Strategies discusses his growth-driven stock approach in the Market Call.
Ed Clissold, chief US strategist for Ned Davis Research, says that the market has a good chance of 'getting pretty deep into 2021' in a bull market, but that to get there stocks must first get past the uncertainty of the election and the pandemic; he notes that once the market feels good about calling a winner in the presidential election, it is likely to get a boost regardless of which candidate earns the consensus, if only because knowing the outcome provides more solid footing that wondering who will win and whether the results will go through. Also on the show, author Ashley Whillans discusses her new book 'Time Smart' -- out this week -- and how people can reclaim the time they are losing to get more done and be happier and less stressed, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a hot, trending home-building fund his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck discusses his plans for a Covid-safe cash-or-candy Halloween.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that 27 percent gains over the last 12 months haven't taken the shine off of gold stocks, which are 'trading at very attractive multiples in terms of price to free cash flow.' Winmill notes that despite low inflation -- which reduces gold's efficiency as a hedge against rising prices -- and lower-for-longer interest rates, precious metals remain attractive during uncertain times, which is why gold prices have held up against the coronavirus pandemic and have seemed impervious to election news. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research highlights some 'Covid stocks' that come from industries and businesses that most people don't think have futures tied to the pandemic, Ryan Sweet of Moody's Analytics discusses the latest National Association for Business Economics outlook survey, and Rob Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Management and thehedgedinvestor.com covers exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
David Goerz, chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management says that while the current momentum is with large-cap growth stocks, he expects small-cap stocks and the value style of investing to be the right call for longer-term investors, noting that he would be gravitating his asset allocation towards sectors filled with value-oriented issues -- like financials, industrials and real estate -- while avoiding areas like consumer staples and health care. Jay Kaplan, manager of the Royce Small Cap Value and Royce Total Return funds echoed many of those sentiments in the Market Call; both money managers disliked the energy sector. Also on the show, Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, says that while the market has been rising, thin volume suggests that the current rally is not well supported and could turn on a dime, while Meredith Stoddard, vice president of life event planning at Fidelity Investments discusses the firm's 'Moving Forward' survey released today, looking at how investors attitudes about their financial futures have been changed by the coronavirus pandemic.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, says he believes the 2021 economy will be okay and show signs of life, but that political unrest between the election and any further coronavirus stimulus is likely to make the remainder of 2020 volatile and lackluster. Also on the show, David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight talks about the mixed market outlook expressed by the professional strategists consulted in a recent survey, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights an accounting-rules change that is making it harder for investors to uncover bad news and a true picture of certain stocks, and Rob Reilly of PRW Wealth Advisors taks mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Sam Hendel, president of Levin Easterly Capital, says in the Market Call that the market being near record highs hasn't made it significantly harder to find value stocks poised for strong performance, especially if you are willing to be somewhat contrarian. Also on the show, Terry Gallagher from UMB Fund Services talks about developments in closed-end funds, most notably the evolution of tender-offer funds, Matt Zajechowski of Digital Third Coast discusses a recent survey on the impact of Covid-19 on prices consumers are paying at the supermarket and elsewhere, and author Jame DiBiasio, chats about his book 'Cowries to Crypto: A History of Money, Currency and Wealth.'
Two Big Interview guests today raise questions about the long-term recovery of the economy from the coronavirus pandemic. Lale Topcuoglu of J.O. Hambro Capital Management says that the market assumes that the economy will recover quickly, butworries that a slower rebound and lower growth rates than expected could lead to deterioration in the fixed-income and credit markets, while Nigam Arora of The Aurora Report discusses how the market and economy will respond to additional stimulus and how the expansion of the national debt will eventually turn into a problem. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund that seeks out cash cows his 'ETF of the Week,' and Rebecca Gramuglia of TopCashback.com discusses how consumers can get more out of their holiday shopping budget if they start planning now.
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group returns to Money Life for an update not only on his struggles with Lou Gehrig's Disease, but also on how changes to the market and economy should have all investors asking one key question that should determine what they do next. The show adds a new regular to the lineup with the debut of Left Brain Thinking; Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment research discusses 'election-proof stocks.' Also on the show, Sarah Ketterer of Causeway Capital Management talks international value investing and more, and Vivian Tsai of the College Savings Foundation covers how Covid is changing the way parents and students are thinking about college.
Scott Colyer, chief executive/chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management, says that the Federal Reserve has primed the pump for the market, but noted that investors need to display some caution. Colyer points out that many people took their stimulus check to the broker and started investing, and all of that enthusiasm tends to be a danger sign for what lies ahead. While Colyer is cautious, he remains fully invested, though he believes investors need to diversify away from the hot stocks and think more broadly. Also on the show, Michele Schneider of MarketGauge.com sees the market's technicals as largely favorable, but with worry signs, John Divine of US News and World Report discusses the hot IPO market and what to expect from new issues for the remainder of the year, and Gary Bradshaw of the Hodges Funds discusses blue-chip stocks in the Market Call.
Niladri Mukherjee of Merrill Lynch Bank of America Private Bank says that investors are more bearish now -- with the Standard and Poor's 500 Index at 3,300 -- than they were when the benchmark stood 1,000 points lower at the bottom of the market's February-March blood-letting. That sentiment is helping to create a pent-up demand that turns most declines into buying opportunities, and is why the market, according to Mukherjee, is entering a new bull cycle, rekindling the secular bull market that started about seven years ago. Brian Kraus of the Hartford Funds talks about a recent survey in which investors discussed how the outcome of the presidential election will impact their investment decisions, Andrew Hsu of the DoubleLine Funds discusses the impact that the election will have on infrastructure spending and project bonds, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts Dropbox stock in the 'Danger Zone' saying it is significantly overpriced now.
John Kosar, chief market strategist, says the data is telling him that the stock market is due for a short-term pullback, noting that the Standard and Poor's 500 has been hovering in a range signalling a downturn in the offing, looking like it could test current support at the 3,233 level. If the market breaks support from there, Kosar says to expect the 200-day moving average level of roughly 3,100 to be the next test, and that the market could get to it and beyond fast before a rebound comes into view. John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance opens the show by looking back at the first year of The NAVigator segment and the tough and changing year it has covered in the closed-end space, while also looking ahead with some picks for the year ahead. Also on the show, Robert Hockett, author of "Money From Nothing ... Or, Why We Should Stop Worrying About Debt and Learn to Love the Federal Reserve" discusses the economic fallout from current events, and Daniel Dolan of Dolan-McEniry discusses the current state of the corporate-bond market.
Mike Calwell, manager of the Driehaus Life Sciences Fund, says that while investors are focused on the coronavirus pandemic and the companies poised to cash in on developing a vaccine, the next decade for life-sciences stocks should include wide-ranging personal health developments combatting things like heart disease and cancer that will still be among the nation's biggest killers long after the virus has passed. Caldwell suggests investors focus on the long-term and the more permanent opportunities, noting that some of the public funding to combat Covid-19 will contribute to advances in many other areas. Also on the show, author Steve Vernon talks about his latest book on the steps investors can take to avoid going broke in retirement, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses consumer savings amid the pandemic, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an IPO stock his 'ETF of the Week,' suggesting that investors may want to keep a permanent allocation to new and nascent stocks.
John Blank, chief market strategist and economist at Zacks Investment research, says that for all of the stock market's volatility and its headline-induced nervousness, results have been mostly average and investors who look at the long run can easily recognize that the market has been sticking with historic norms despite feeling like it has been put to historic extremes. Also on the show, Chuck answers audience questions about the 'bucket system' of saving for retirement and on the spreads an investor might pay to be a long-term social investor, author and entrepreneur Ken Rusk discusses his book 'Blue Collar Cash,' and Sarah Berger of MagnifyMoney.com discusses the site's latest survey, which shows that just 17 percent of investors 'completely trust the stock market.'
Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management, says that investors should be nervous and defensive because of the disconnect between the economy and the stock and bond markets, noting that he worries that the Federal Reserve is ill-equipped for fighting unemployment in addition to its traditional role of combating inflation. Despite the worries, Klingelhofer still believes that the domestic market is the best place to invest. Also on the show, Jeff Krumpelman of Mariner Wealth Advisors says he believes the market is headed for a correction, though he believes there is a solid foundation to enable a reasonably quick recovery from any decline. Also on the show, Ken Tumin of DepositAccounts.com discusses how consumers are changing their banking habits in the pandemic, and Mike Liss of American Century Value Fund talks relative-value investing in the Market Call.
Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory says that 'every effective CEO today is a CEO who can tell a story and create a narrative that may or may not have anything to do with real-world performance,' and he says that investors have to cut through those stories to figure out what is real and what is overblown, disconnected from fundamentals and economics. He notes that investors must make up their own minds, rather than falling easily for the stories. Also on the show, James DiChiaro of the BNY Mellon Core Plus Fund talks about generating income in a low-rate environment, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Peloton stock in the 'Danger Zone,' saying it's sky-high valuations are taking investors for a ride, and Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses recent research showing how retirees are already feeling long-term impacts to their money and mindset due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Jeff Weniger, director of asset allocation at WisdomTree Asset Management, says that investors need to put potential election outcomes into their plans ahead of time, and he notes that the reaction should include how each candidate is likely to respond to the coronavirus pandemic from here. Weniger says, for example, that investors should overweight financial is they expect a Trump victory -- which he does -- and reduce exposure to banks and investment firms if they expect a Biden win. Also on the show, Joe Keefe, president of the Pax World Funds, discusses how social investors should be thinking about their influence in the wake of the wildfires sweeping the West Coast, as well as his expectations for the market through the election, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com covers the site's latest survey on Americans' current level of personal financial satisfaction under President Trump, and Daniel Wildermuth of Wildermuth Wealth talks about the benefits of investing like an endowment within a fund structure that forces investors to hold -- and think -- long-term.
Abhay Deshpande, chief investment officer at Centerstone Investors, says that the market's February-March swoon created the best situation that value investors had seen since the financial crisis of 2008, and that the recent rebound back to record-high ranges hasn't diminished the value prospects for a lot of businesses. Deshpande says that 2020 by the numbers -- rather than the events that have caused them and hijacked the headlines -- is reasonably close to what he might have expected at the start of the year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a brand new fund with ties to the Nasdaq Compiste Index as his 'ETF of the Week,' Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses the impact that a $500 debt repayment will have on the average credit score, and Eric Heyman of the Olstein Strategic Opportunities fund makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist for ProShares, says that while investors have focused on technology and health-care stocks during the pandemic, the pet-care industry has been thriving, buoyed not only by increased demand but by the consistent way in which pet owners spend on their pets. The ProShares Pet Care ETF is up nearly 30 percent this year and Hyman said that steady gains and growth will be the real, long-term story of the fund. Also on the show, author Dawn Starks talks about 'Simplify Your Financial Life,' her book that has over 100 tips to help people take better control of their money and time, and Francisco Bido of Integrated Alpha and the F/m Large-Cap Focused Fund talks the art and science of his mostly quantitative approach in the Market Call.
Technical analyst Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, says that the stock market's winter swoon may have set it up for the current recovery and helped it avoid a bubble, but she warns that her outlook for the market in the short run is negative. The decline she sees coming, however, should prove to be a buying opportunity, because her long-term market expectation is positive and bullish, meaning that investors should be rewarded for buying into the trouble ahead. Also on the show, Rance Masheck of iVest Plus talks about the new wave of traders and whether conditions are right to lure newbies into the market only to give them a beating, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses home improvements and how people who need them mid-pandemic are paying for them during times when money is tight, and Leah Bennett of Westwood Wealth Management talks bottoms-up stock-picking and large-cap companies in the Market Call.
Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, says in the Money Life Market Call that the stock market is currently poised to disappoint investors 'for at least a decade if not longer,' yet despite risk levels that he compares to past market meltdowns like 2008 and 1929 there are still some values worth buying for the long haul. Also on the show, Marc Zeitoun of Columbia Threadneedle on the ways exchange-traded funds are changing and how it affects the way investors use them, David Trainer puts Snap Inc. in the 'Danger Zone,' and Jacob Golstein -- best known for his work on the Planet Money podcast -- discusses his book, 'Money: The True Story of a Made-Up Thing.'
Jason Wilson, manager of the ETFMG Alternative Harvest fund (ticker MJ) says that investors who believe that the investment opportunity in legalized marijuana is from pot shops and people smoking dope are missing the much broader uses of cannabis and its potential in pharmaceuticals and biotech business and more. While the small names have attracted attention of risk takers, he says sticking with established companies -- and looking at supportive businesses -- is a way to reduce the Wild West elements of the industry. Also on the show, Dave Lamb, head of closed-end funds for Nuveen talks about how municipal bonds have rebounded sharply but haven't recovered pre-pandemic highs -- unlike investment-grade corporates -- making them attractive now, Davis Martin of The SPY Trade of the Day discusses how the market's movements are being dictated by moving averages, and David Norris, head of US credit at TwentyFour Asset Management covers the credit business and how it has responded to the lower-for-longer interest-rate environment.
Richard Peterson of MarketPsych Data says that most of the economy is not doing well as a result of the global pandemic, which has fostered two different markets, the one made up of companies profiting from the conditions and benefitting from consumer habits that are likely to be permanently changed, and then the market of companies hoping for a comeback or return to normal that may not be enough, ever, to bring them back. Peterson worries about where investors are with their thinking, noting that there is a fatigue driven by bad news and the election that also has the potential to slow the recovery. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com discusses a fund that's not yet in buying territory but that appears to be headed there as the country it focuses on starts to climb out of its deep coronavirus troubles, Ross Hambrick of William Blair and Co. provides his pre-election primer on how and why Americans' November choice will move the market, and Ryan Jacob of the Jacob Funds talks tech stocks in the Market Call.
Harry Dent Jr. of Dent Research, editor of the "Economy and Markets' newsletter, says he believes the worst crash of our lifetime started in February and that it will last to the end of 2022, driven by the Federal Reserve Bank 'losing control' early in 2021. He notes that the only markets that have returned to record highs are measured by the biggest domestic indexes, with every other measure below record highs and not ready to re-touch them soon. 'We really peaked in February, we had this first crash and [the Fed] stimulated their way out of that," Dent says, 'but each stimulus has to be stronger and I think they lose control ... in the first or second quarter of next year, just when most economists, most politicians, most business people and everyone I know thinks we will finally beat the virus and come out of it.' Also on the show, author Juliet Schor discusses her latest book, 'After the Gig: How the Sharing Economy Got Hijacked and How to Win It Back,' and Eric Shoenstein, lead portfolio manager for the Jensen Quality Growth fund (JENSX) taks stocks in the Market Call.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that the economy's problems are 'intractable' in the short and medium term, and while the recovery can continue, he believes it will be slower and less robust than most current forecasts, noting that while a long-running bull market brought the stock market back from the Great Recession of 2008, the economy in some ways is only just recapturing the levels it achieved before that massive correction. Also on the show, legendary value investor Joel Greeblatt returns to the show to discuss his new book -- released today -- 'Common Sense: The Investor's Guide to Equality, Opportunity and Growth,' which gives guidelines for how he thinks the investing world can improve society. Eddie Perkin of Eaton Vance also appears on the show, discussing the latest Eaton Vance Investing Pulse Survey.
Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical traders, says that enthusiasm over the market's run back to record highs has overheated, making it likely that there is a pullback of 5 to 10 percent, after which he expects the rally to resume and for stocks to grind back to record highs and beyond. Meanwhile, Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist at The Oxford Club, says that dividend investors who want to give companies a break when they freeze, suspend or reduce payouts during these turbulent times might want to stick to their standards and not give too much of a pass just because the economy and market are experiencing tough times. Some leeway is warranted, Lichtenfeld notes, but dividend cuts remain a bad sign for income-oriented investors. Also on the show, securities attorney Thomas DeCapo of Skadden Arps discusses whether recent SEC rules changes will reduce activism in closed-end funds, and long-short manager Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market Timing report talks stocks in the Market Call.
Duke University economics professor Campbell Harvey, senior advisor at Research Affiliates, explains some of the seven risks he sees as being able to derail a robust economic recovery, noting that the biggest one is how giddy and excited investors have become, seeing the market's rebound through rose-colored glasses. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com selects a clean-energy fund as his ETF of the Week, Eric Groves of Alignable.com discusses his site's survey showing that nearly one-third of small business owners say they are in danger of going out of business in the fourth quarter, and Chuck answers a question from an audience member who is trying to figure out the next financial move after losing his job mid-pandemic.
Craig Callahan, founder of the ICON Funds -- who said just before the stock market bottomed out in late March that it was the best bargain pricing he had ever seen -- says that the market's rise back to record-high levels has dampened the shopping spree somewhat, but that plenty of values remain. He breaks companies into three groups now, those unaffected by the recession and pandemic, those hurt by the recession by likely to recover soon, and those that are significantly impaired, noting that market leaders aren't overpriced yet. Also on the show, Joel Schiffman of Schroders discusses just how wild investor expectations are now that the market has rebounded, Jack Towarnick of the American Research Association covers the changing ways that consumers are using health-savings accounts, and Jamie Cuellar of Buffalo Small-Cap Fund makes his debut in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the stock market's seemingly ho-hum reaction to election news has been because the result remains a toss-up, but now that the conventions have passed and the election process is entering the home stretch, he expects a more significant response as market forces decide what kind of impact to expect from either an incumbent victory or a regime change. He notes that the market generally responds positively to a re-election and struggles more when an incumbent is defeated. Also on the show, Jerremy Newsome of Real Life Trading says the market is headed for trouble ahead -- a decline of 8 to 10 percent -- because it has overheated and become too optimistic. Still, after that kind of pullback, he expects the market to resume its climb and says 20 percent higher a year from now would not be surprising at all. Larry Swedroe, author of 'The Incredible Shrinking Alpha: How to be a Successful Investor Without Picking Winners" discusses his book and Matt Zajechowski of Digital Third Coast talks about how travelers are changing their habits now in order to get back on the road even as the pandemic drags on.
Famed value investor Joel Greenblatt, co-chief investment officer at Gotham Asset Management, explains how the market's changes haven't affected what he looks at in stocks, but stresses that value investors who insist on traditional measures like price-to-earnings or price-to-book ratios will not see the real bargains available now, even as the market returns to record-high levels. He explains how Amazon.com is a value stock now despite a massive 4-digit price tag, noting he thinks it could nearly double from here. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carvana in the Danger Zone, saying the stock has all the earmarks of an imminent disaster, and Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Wealth Management discusses stocks and her definition of value now in the Market Call.
JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, says that the virus and the election will dominate the market action for the remainder of the year and until they are settled, but he says that the election results may not shake things up much on the whole, instead hitting specific sectors hard. He notes that what happens in the House and Senate -- particularly if control of the latter shifts -- will have particular impact on the health-care and energy sectors. Also on the show, Bryan McGannon of US SIF discusses a controversial rules proposal that could limit or reduce investors' access to social investment funds in their retirement plans, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about the financial impacts -- and pitfalls -- from event cancellations, and Brian Bollinger of Simply Safe Dividends discusses the impact of dividend freezes cuts and suspensions on dividend-investing strategies in the current environment.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer, says while market conditions are positive, investors need to be choosy because the current rally is not broad. To that end, he suggests that investors 'are better served by some individual selection,' both in stocks and bonds; he notes that the pandemic has highlighted the need for critical thinking, with stocks like Netflix and Disney that once were considered competitors on mostly equal footing now showing their big differences as the economy struggles to reopen. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks at the Standard & Poor's 500 in two ways as he picks two similar-but-different funds as 'ETF of the Week,' Laura Adams of Coverage.com talks about the stunningly high cost of adding teenagers to family auto insurance policies, and Eric Boughton of Matisse Capital says in the Market Call that most closed-end funds remain compelling values, allowing investors to buy valuable assets on the cheap..
Willie Delwiche, investment analyst at Baird, says that the market's technicals are sending a clear message that the market is in an uptrend that is likely to keep rolling, so that 'Getting really negative about the market right now doesn't make any sense.' In the Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual group, notes that while he expected a recession in 2020, it was not for pandemic reasons, but the struggling economy actually addressed his concerns and so the weakness he anticipated won't stand in the way of a recovery from here.Also, Ismat Mangla of MagnifyMoney.com discusses their research into the dividend history -- freeze, cut, hold or increase -- of companies that furloughed workers or reduced payrolls during the coronavirus pandemic, and Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks stocks in the Market Call.
Avi Gilburt, founder of the Elliott Wave Trader, says he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 Index to hit 5,000 by 2022, and while he believes there will be a pullback before that rally starts, he believes there will be a 'global melt-up' that will dramatically lift global markets in 2021, allowing them to reach his long-term target the following year. Also on the show, Marc Chaikin: of Chaikin Analytics says that the market is only disconnected from the economy 'if you go by the old rules,' noting that unique times call for different guidelines and benchmarks. Chaikin says he will not fight either the Fed or the trend, notig that both are pushing the market higher and likely will keep it going that way into 2021 and beyond. Kasara Barto of Squaremouth.com joins Chuck to discuss about how travel insurance is working during the pandemic and who is actually using it now, and Jane Edmondson of EQM Indexes talks rules-based stock investing in the Market Call.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that the market's recovery has been largely bifurcated, with the FANG stocks benefitting from and fueling the run back to record highs while the rest of the Standard and Poor's 500 and the rest of the Standard and Poor's 500 has been struggling to recapture pre-pandemic prosperity. Mullarkey says that the market has reached the point where technology stocks have maximized their values and he expects a handoff from growth to value; the key for investors will be getting the transition right, thereby avoiding value traps. Mullarkey says that any market stalls or pullbacks could create buying opportunities. Also on the show, Greg Daco of Oxford Economics US discusses the latest National Association for Business Economics Outlook Survey -- out today -- which shows economists thinking the recovery will be long and slow and likely unfinished for at least two more years, Kyle Guske of New Constructs says that one of the stock market's biggest darlings belongs in The Danger Zone, and Chris Krumenacker of Bryn Mawr Trust discusses stocks in the Market Call.
The stock market may be back to record high levels, but Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund notes that the rally has been narrow with just 6 percent of stocks at or near their peaks. Auxier believes the coronavirus pandemic has left many stocks in buying territory because it amounts to a 'fixable temporary problem,' the kind of thing that knocks down a stock price without impairing it permanently. Also on the show, Lawrence Holzenthaler of Symphony Nuveen discusses high-yield investing in a low-rate environment, and the disconnect between the how the equity and credit markets are thinking right now, Scott Kimball of BMO TCH Core Plus Bond Fund talks the broad fixed-income picture and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com talks about the site's latest survey on how schooling decisions being made now are having a financial impact on the families dealing with them.
Eddy Augusten, investment committee chair at Concurrent Advisors, says that while the market looks stretched and risky -- with stocks and bonds both being expensive by some conventional metrics -- the economy is strong and showing signs that it can push the market higher. Augusten stressed the importance of looking beyond the standard numbers during times when numbers are uncertain and confusing. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new small-cap biotechnology fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Scott Thoma of Edward Jones discusses the changing ways Americans are viewing retirement, and Chuck answers three questions submitted by audience members.
Talley Leger, senior investment strategist at Invesco, says that while the stock market has been gaining speed and heading to new highs, it also has building headwinds that must be overcome -- but that can be conquered -- before the market can continue its recent rally. Leger suggested that investors will need to move away from defensive sectors and be ready to be more aggressive if the market can overcome its current obstacles. Also on the show, William Quinn, co-author of '"Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles' compares the current economic situation to historic market bubbles, and Stephen Dodson, manager of the Bretton Fund, talks about value investing in current market conditions and the need to stay focused on the long run in the Market Call.
Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors says that the market is signalling now that the worst of the coronavirus has played out and that there is something significantly more optimistic ahead of us. 'Indicators we are looking at see the market at substantially higher levels,' Peroni says, ultimately noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is likely to hit 36,000 before the end of the current market cycle, which he notes could last a few years. Hitting a contrasting note to that technical outlook is Markus Schomer, chief economist at Pinebridge Investments, who says that interpretation of current economic numbers is upside down. He notes that countries that had the worst second-quarter GDP numbers were those that shut down against Covid-19 most comprehensively, which means they can reopen with greater confidence, as opposed to countries -- like the United States -- that struggled to keep GDP numbers up but that did poorly against the virus meaning that its effects will linger on. Also on the show, Chuck answers some audience questions and Amy Arnott of Morningstar discusses gold and why investors flocking to it now should know its historical long-term impacts on a portfolio.
Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, says that a looming eviction crisis will have a dramatic impact on the economy, even if the number of actual evictions is held ni check by lawmakers. Kapfidze noted that the economic troubles hidden in renters unable to make payments and landlords unable to collect rents will make it that the economy can;t recover to pre-coronavirus levels soon. While the decline itself may not be deep and traumatic, Kapfidze notes that 'A 10 percent sustained decline in the economy is a significant thing and will do a lot of damage to the economy as a whole.' Also on the show, Jean Young of Vanguard discusses how few of the firm's investors showed signs of panic during the market downturn in February and March, and that those who did exit for the safety of cash mostly would have been better off sticking with stocks, David Trainer of New Constructs says Wayfair may be popular but the stock is headed for trouble, and Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Martin Pring of Pring research says that investors may intuitively feel that the stock market has rebounded too quickly from March lows and might be expecting a downturn, but notes that the indicators he relies on are showing that stocks are oversold. As a result, Pring suggests going with the head -- and the mathematics of technical analysis -- and pay attention to numbers showing that the market has a lot of upside momentum that could extend the current rally by at least 10 percent and that could make it last several more years. Also on the show, veteran financial journalist John Waggoner talks about why the media overlooks closed-end funds, author Frank Stricker discusses unemployment from a past, present and future perspective, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks stocks in the Market Call.
Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer at Hennion and Walsh, says that stock market valuations have again risen to where they should make investors nervous, based on where they stand compared to price/earnings ratios for the market. As a result, Mahn says investors will need to be more selective for the rest of this year and all the way through 2022. Mahn is turning to preferred securities for the income side of portfolios, and looking in biotech, e-commerce and technology for stocks, favoring small- and mid-cap issues which he says are better values. Also ont he show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a homebuilders' specialty fund his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses the growing number of consumers worried about missing credit-card payments in the pandemic, and Sandy Villere talks growth stocks at reasonable prices in the Market Call.
Adrian Helfert, portfolio manager for the Westwood Income Opportunity Fund, says that while investors might be nervous about the economy and the potential for a downturn, they should go along with the market's trends and not fight the central bankers who have been fueling the rebound action since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. He says investors should look beyond the big names that have been driving the recovery to see what opportunities look best next, and suggested that following the central bankers' should include looking for opportunities in Europe and beyond. Also on the show, Jim Tankersley of the New York Times discusses his new book 'The Riches of This Land' about America's middle class, and Chuck answers several questions from audience members.
Mike Larson, senior editor at Weiss Ratings and editor of Weiss' Safe Money Report, says in the Market Call that investors right now seem to be stopping to catch their breath after the market's Covid-19 recovery, waiting to see if there is more than just massive government stimulus propping up the market or is there another leg down ahead. Larson has been advocating sectors that do well in a 'ZIRP Forever' -- zero interest rate policy forever -- environment, meaning yield-oriented investments, precious metals and consumer staples companies. Also on the show, Stephen Kalayjian of Ticker Tocker takes a look at the current technicals, Linda Zhang of SoFi discusses the trend that is seeing so many young and new investors become stock traders during the pandemic, and author Paul Starobin talks about 'A Most Wicked Conspiracy,' his true tale of a nearly forgotten financial swindle from America's gold rush.
Giles Coghlan, chief currency strategist for HYCM, says that the economy will struggle to move forward without a coronavirus vaccine or treatment, but even without the economic boost that will come from solutions, he expects uncertainty and low real interest rates to drive gold significantly higher this year. He suggests investors should avoid buying gold at peaks and should look for pullbacks, which he says will be happening in the midst of gold's climb. Also on the show, Simon Lack of SL Advisors says in the Market Call that the energy sector is really cheap, paying big dividends for investors looking to generate cash flow on the cheap, Kyle Guske of New Constructs talks about a brand-name stock that looks attractive, and Mike Brown of LendEDU discusses consumer complaint levels during pandemic times.
Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the stock market may be waiting until after a Democratic vice presidential candidate is named before starting to factor current polls into current prices, but he cautioned that even as the market starts to reconnect to the potential voting outcome, investors should be waiting until they see more from candidates before altering portfolios. Instead, he suggests waiting until you know more about taxes, infrastructure spending plans, health care reform and more before altering a portfolio, noting that the likely changes will involve adding to health care and infrastructure plays while backing away from energy and financials. Also on the show, Tom Roseen of Lipper Refinitiv talks about the closed-end fund resurgence since the dismal showing they posted during the February downturn, Giulia Prati of Opinium discusses changing consumer shopping habits and how the impact of the pandemic may liner long after a vaccine is found, and John Johnson of Edgeworth Economics discusses how the pandemic has impacted the numbers used in forecasting and how that is changing the numbers that economists rely on and that consumers should believe.
Neil Hennessy, chairman and chief executive at Hennessy Advisors and the Hennessy Funds, says that the stock market has withstood the global pandemic largely because of the underlying strength in corporate balance sheets and the overall economy. Those underpinnings should help ensure that the market doesn't fall too far on bad news and can shake off most events, unlike past crisis times where weak economics exacerbated societal problems and elevated investors' pain levels. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new health-care fund that highlights the technologies brought forth in the pandemic his 'ETF of the Week,' Matthew Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses how credit-card issuers are cutting back on untapped credit limits and old unused accounts as they tighten up in the pandemic, and James Abate of the Centre Funds talks investing defensively in stocks in the Market Call.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, anticipates a sluggish, uneven economy and stock market as the country gets through the coronavirus pandemic into 2021, noting that the big technology names will flatten out a bit and small-cap names will slowly come to the fore as the market rotates into the next growth environment..In a second Big Interview, David Wright, lead portfolio manager for the Sierra Mutual Funds, says he has adopted BCOT -- 'Be careful out there' -- as his mantra for both the pandemic and the current market, and says he is using stops on every position to make sure the market's potential for volatility doesn't take away hard-earned gains made during the rebound. Also, Maggie Craddock, author of 'Lifeboat: Navigating Unexpected Career Change and Disruption' talks about how workers whose jobs have been displaced by the pandemic can turn that disappointment into a new start.
Michael Oh, manager of the Matthew Asia Innovators Fund, says the global pandemic has sped up the consumer revolution in emerging markets, but especially in China, which is making consumer companies and technology stocks look particularly appealing because such a gigantic market is opening and once the consumers adopt the technologies they will continue on with them even after the initial impetus to invest in them has passed, Also on the show, Mary Wisniewski of Bankrate.com talks about changing technology in automated teller machines and how consumers can safely use ATMs in a Covid-19 world, Mike Brown of LendEDU discusses per-capita spending on the lottery around the country -- and reveals that Chuck's home state is where individuals lay out the most money per person on tickets -- and Odeta Kushi of First American talks about the changing housing market and the Home Ownership Progress Index and what it says about how the market of home buyers is shifting.
Tom Stringfellow, president and chief investment officer, says he is optimistic that the stock market is due for a broad recovery spread over many sectors, and driven by valuations and earnings, but he warned that until that time comes the market will be driven by a handful of mega-cap names which is uncomfortable but which shouldn't dissuade investors from staying diversified, knowing that they are positioned for that time when the recovery expands and picks up speed. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com discusses his site's latest 'Market Mavens' survey discussing where experts expect the market to go next, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Tesla back in the Danger Zone again, saying the stock is much worse off now than it was about a year ago when he put it there, only to see it explode in what he described as a fit of extreme irrational exuberance, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds discusses using an insider-buying strategy as he covers stocks in the Market Call.
Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation for Pacific Life Fund Advisors, says that investors should be taking advantage of current opportunities, but also should be moving toward a more neutral position with so many warning signs out for the stock market. If investor sentiment remains positive, Gokhman says he expects to avoid moving allocations all the way to neutral or bearish. Also on the show, Josef Schuster of IPOX Schuster discusses the hot market for initial public offerings and whether he expects new issues to continue their hot streak through the pandemic, Eric Groves of Alignable talks about how the small business community is surviving the coronavirus crisis, and Kimberly Flynn of XA Investments describes how alternative investments are being used in new and different closed-end fund structures to let individuals access strategies previously reserved for big institutions.
Paul Lambert, portfolio manager for the Tocqueville Opportunity Fund, said that the coronavirus pandemic has sped up the clock and created opportunities among technology companies focused on work-from-home and digital-transformation-of- business applications, though he warned that some popular stocks in those spaces have overheated and would be dangerous now, especially if they don't have strong financials and hefty recurring revenue streams. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends,com looks to Europe for his 'ETF of the Week,' Leonard Wright discusses the AICPA's latest Personal Financial Satisfaction Index and how disappointed Americans are feeling this far into the viral pandemic, and Damon Ficklin of Polen Global Growth Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, says that the stock market is so optimistic right now because there is nothing to disprove the positive premise yet, with low interest rates and the promise of economic growth from a rebound fueling historically high valuations at least for now. Yet if there is no vaccine for coronavirus soon and if the economy rebounds more slowly than expected, O'Hare expects a difficult market, and notes that many investors will ride out the uncertain periods in the megacap stocks -- the biggest names that have been the primary drivers in the rebound from March lows -- because they have 'survivorship status,' having grown so large that they will survive whatever the economy and market can dish out. Also on the show, Bill Perkins, author of 'Die With Zero,' who talks about making the most of your money and your life, and William Smead of the Smead Value Fund, who discusses in the Market Call how current conditions are helping long-term investors buy great companies and disrupted prices.
Today's wide-ranging show starts with Patrick Jankowski of the National Association for Business Economics discussing the group's most recent survey of members, two-thirds of whom expect the economy to be in a recovery with two-thirds of respondents expecting Growth by year's end. Greg McBride of Bankrate.com chats about a different survey, one that shows that for just the second time in the last eight years, investors now believe that stocks will be the best place to invest for the next decade. With so many still favoring real estate and cash, McBride notes how investors may be showing their less-than-admiral traits in the research. Also on the show, Anix Vyas of Harding Loevner, talks about the small-cap rally he believes is on the horizon and the premium investors can get by going international with the aset class, and Gerry Frigon of Taylor Frigon talks stocks in the Market Call.
Sheraz Mian, director of research for Zacks Investment Research, says that investors can't make great comparisons using current numbers against a year ago or even before the coronavirus -- and says the comparison problems will continue for at least a year after the pandemic ends -- but in spite of that issue, he expects earnings to continue improving through the end of the year. Meanwhile, Paul Hoffmeister of Camelot Portfolios says that optimistic investors should see the recent market pullback is creating "anothr chance to put risk on," and suggested investors might want to look into underperforming sectors like health care, energy and gaming. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a mid-cap growth fund in the "Danger Zone' and Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com study which shows the ways investors are damaging their credit score as they respond to the financial hardships created by the pandemic.
Ken Berman of Gorilla Trades says he'd stick with companies with strong balance sheets, a big domestic presence and a business focus online to ride through a sawtooth, back-and-forth summer, a fall correction and then a rally that brings the Standard and Poor's 500 to at least the 3,500 level he was forecasting when he last visited the show in February, before the coronavirus pandemic. Also on the show, John Mosseau of Cumberland Advisors discusses the value of sticking with traditional fixed-income allocations in the lower-for-longer rate environment, and says that he expects an economic recovery even if there is no vaccine for Covid-19, Gregg Bell of A# Financial Investments discusses alternative credit investments like reverse mortgages and private equity and how they are particularly well-suited for the closed-end, interval fund structure, and Bob Auer, manager of the Auer Growth Fund, discusses why he believes in his methodology and process despite a low Morningstar rating, and then puts his methods to work talking growth stocks in the Market Call.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RCM, says the risks of a sub-par recovery are rising as uncertainty over the outcome of the coronavirus pandemic drags on, and while he still believes that there will be a swoosh-shaped 'elongated and frustratingly slow recovery,' he says even that can't happen until the market knows how the pandemic will be resolved. In the Market Call, Barry James of the James Advantage Funds says investors need to be looking at securities in different time periods -- BC and AD, for 'before coronavirus' and 'after disease' -- and notes that the pandemic has injected a little more subjectivity into stock research right now. Also, Chuck answers a question from the audience, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new fund based on a market niche that is in the news the 'ETF of the Week.'
Tactical money manager Michael Ball, managing director at Weatherstone Capital Management, says that the global pandemic and the stunted economic cycle have changed the data he looks at to make some of his decisions, noting that 'mobility numbers' which show how much people are getting out and moving around give a more real-time pulse on the economy than simple employment numbers or other more-traditional data. He talked about funds and ETFs to take advantage of current opportunities in the Market Call. Also on the show, Lyle Fitterer of Baird discusses the fixed-income market and how interest rates that remain lower for longer are changing asset allocation decisions, and author Harry Glorikian talks 'Moneyball Medicine' and how health care is likely to be permanently altered when the current crisis is over.
Reed Murphy, chief investment officer at Calamos Wealth Management, says that the uncertain market has its worry spots, but that economies globally have looked good coming out of the coronavirus pandemic and the United States should be able to follow suit if and when there is a vaccine, and assuming the government keeps stimulus flowing until that happens. Murphy noted that the disruption of the economy presents unique opportunities moving forward. Also on the show, Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Asset Management talks technicals and says that if the market can extend to new highs, he expects it to go higher still, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com talks about the financial milestones people are putting off during the pandemic economy, and Janet Brown of the FundX Investment Group talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Karl Mills, president of Jurika, Mills and Kiefer, says that while there is more good news than bad right now for the market, investors should be more defensive in their thinking right now. Mills isn't expecting a big downturn -- he's anticipating a 10 to 15 percent pullback, but says that it's hard to see much potential for the market to move significantly higher, so until there is some sort of sell-off and the market repositions to make buying more attractive, he's remaining cautious and careful. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses the current shortage of coins and how Covid-19 is permanently changing the way consumers pay for things, David Trainer of New Constructs talks about an attractive manufacturing stock to consider now, and Harris Trifon of Western Asset Management discusses how the work-from-home trend is likely to impact real estate markets once the coronavirus pandemic has ended.
Noting that 'Hope is not an investment strategy,' Peter Chiappinelli, portfolio strategist at GMO, says that his firm de-risked its holdings in May, moving from a buy-hold tack into the market's recovery to more of a long-short strategy that should make money no matter which way the wind blows next. He says that the market is pricing in an all-is-well optimistic recovery, but that savvy investors should prepare for something worse to help get them through uncertain times, and he noted that value should outperform core equity in time, particularly with international stocks, which 'are trading at a discount we have never seen before in the history of our database.' Also on the show, author Steven Bavaria talks about how closed-end funds can be an 'income factory' driving returns, Matt Harris of HighTower Advisors talks technicals and describes why a weak dollar is making gold, miners and emerging markets look good, and David Marcus of Evermore Global Value Fund says in the Market Call that there is a current intersection between the growth and value styles that's unlike anything he has seen in his decades as a fund manager.
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that while many people currently believe the stock market and economy are disconnected -- with the market thriving while the economy is hurting -- the patterns for the market and the economy are tightly linked and likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future, with the economy's path dictating what the market does next. Thus, if the economy takes a V-shaped recovery pattern, the market will continue going up, but if the recovery flattens, falters or rolls over, the market is likely to follow suit in lock-step fashion. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks about China with his ETF of the Week, and Bernie Horn of the Polaris Global Value Fund talks about why he has broadened out his portfolio and how the inability to be a globetrotter has affected his buys and sells amid the pandemic.
Larry Cordisco, portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management, says that investors should look for industry leaders that are depressed by the current economy, because they're in a strong position to weather the market and economic storm created by the coronavirus pandemic.When the current economy weakens -- which Cordisco expects, despite his long-term view that recovery is coming -- the strong players will come out in a few years much better positioned as leaders in their fields. Also on the show, Howard Dvorkin of Debt.com talks about how individuals and families struggling to make ends meet during the pandemic should approach their problems to minimize potential trouble, and author Olivier Sibony discusses his new book on the mistakes people make by letting personal biases skew their decisions.
Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer at Cambiar Investors, says that the Federal Reserve's actions to keep money flowing have allowed the stock market to rebound and rise despite the obvious economic issues that might otherwise punish stocks. He suggests not fighting the Fed while looking for opportunities now, but warns that in 2021 or '22, 'the Fed will stop doing these things, and that will be your Uh-oh moment in the stock market.' Starting the show, Jeff Bishop, editor at Total Alpha Trading, says that 'This is not a time to be a fundamental investor,' but that makes it a great time to be a short-term technical trader, using the force of price moves -- rather than standing in the way of them expecting a downturn -- to ride the trends to higher prices. Also on the show, Leisa Peterson discusses her new book, 'The Mindful Millionaire,' and Chuck answers a question about dealing with a tough situation that could lead an audience member to declare bankruptcy in the future.
Melanie Lieberman, senior travel editor at ThePointsGuy.com, discusses the unique challenges people are facing now as they try to plan summer vacations and family trips at a time when traveling presents a very real health risk. Also on the show, Jeff Kolitch, manager of the Baron Real Estate Fund, joins Chuck to chat about how investors benefit when they look past REITs and go for service-companies and home builders in the real estate space -- though he also likes real estate investment trusts despite their recent struggles -- while David Trainer of New Constructs says a particularly 'nutty' stock is actually much less dangerous than the market seems to believe right now, and Andrey Kutusov of the Seven Canyons World Innovators Fund talks global stock investing in the Market Call.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, says that while thw worst of the stock market's troubles should be behind us, there is a long way to go before he can say things are good. Right now, he says, it's more of a 'less bad' environment, with the market grinding higher and climbing the proverbial wall of worry. He suggests strong positions in domestic equities, most notably in technology and other buoyant sectors while riding through volatility. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance looks at how closed-end funds rebounded in the second quarter, posting strong results despite huge dividend cuts; while closed-end issues remain down on average for the year, he notes that wider discounts make them particularly attractive at this point, especially for income-oriented investors. Jared Kizer of Buckingham Strategic Partners discusses how he advises clients who are getting nervous to 'do something' at a time when the best advice remains 'stay the course,' and Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub covers a survey of Americans who mostly believe that Covid-19 has changed the way we work for the better.
Michael Kagan, portfolio manager for ClearBridge Investments, says in the Market Call that investors are looking at a 'very concentrated market,' noting that a huge percentage of the market's recent gains have been driven by just 10 stocks and pointing out that the last time the market was this concentrated was during the first quarter of 2000, just before the Internet bubble burst. While he's not expecting any similar dire outcomes, Kagan notes that investors are scared and betting on the names that are producing results now, but that the popular stocks will suffer when investors feel safe to once again venture further from their comfort levels. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new issue that covers a hot-topic niche his ETF of the Week, Neesha Hathi of Charles Schwab talks 'stock slices,' which let investors buy fractional shares of stock commission-free for a few bucks at a time, and Andrew Beer of the iM DBi Hedge Strategy ETF talks about how the market and hedge funds have reacted to the many shocks created by the global pandemic.
Rob Sharps, head of investments at T. Rowe Price, says investors need to focus on balance sheets, fundamentals and 'the ability of businesses to make it to the other side [of the pandemic] with their businesses intact,' and warns that we're well past the point where investors can buy stocks broadly and expect to benefit from a recovery. 'Aggregate market valuations,' he says, 'have never been more meaningless,' making the case for tactical decision-making and solid stock-picking. Earlier on the show, Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, said that the US market is significantly overvalued, which has him looking at global assets -- especially in emerging markets -- and trimming his domestic holdings sharply. Rounding out the discussions -- and bringing additional focus to valuations -- Tim Koller, co-author of 'Valuation,' a business standard now out in its seventh edition, talks about how the pandemic has impacted the valuation of public and private companies.
Kristina Hooper, global macro strategist at Invesco, says we are seeing a global economic ping-pong game, where the information we are getting about coronavirus, health policies, economic news, monetary policy and more are bouncing around to create an outlook that is changing on an almost-daily basis. Still, she said that creates opportunities for investors who are patient and tactical through a slow, uneven recovery that won't be so much a v-shaped rebound but a 'Nike swoosh' shaped upturn. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey about whether investors and consumers are losing sleep to financial concerns during the coronavirus pandemic, Russel Kinnel, director of manager research at Morningstar talks mutual funds in the Market Call, and Chuck talks weird financial news, including the fines levied against an Austrian man charged with excessive, aggressive flatulence.
Tracie McMillion of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute discusses the firm's most-recent investor-optimism survey, which saw seven years of gains and positive outlooks wiped out in the last calendar quarter. She discusses what happened and why investors are so much more pessimistic now despite the market's rebound from March lows. Also on the show, author Christian Busch discusses 'The Serendipity Mindset' and how to create good luck, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts MongoDB in the Danger Zone, and Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses stocks that he'd 'XOUT' of a portfolio in the Market Call.
Goerge Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that in hard-to-gauge circumstances, gold is the one asset class that is performing in line with investor expectations, working appropriately to diversify portfolios and balance the volatile market. Neil Azous of Rareview Capital talks about a unique opportunity in municipal-bond closed-end funds, where the four return streams investors normally pursue are lined up to all potentially be working at the same time. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund that's all about genomics and finding a coronoavirus cure his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services and The DRIP Investor talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, discusses his firm's outlook for the remainder of 2020, while noting that there is little clarity in any outlook right now thanks largely to coronavirus, but also owing to the election, the economy and more. Nick also talks about how the falling rates story in bonds -- which is forcing investors to re-think the role of bonds in their portfolios -- will likely be the story of the coming decade, as investors deal with the fallout of 'lower for longer.' Also on the show, Gene Nadler discusses the simple strategy that's behind his book 'The Perfect Stock Market Diet,' and Jack Murphy of Levin Easterly Partners talks about value investing and value stocks in the Market Call.
Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear fund (HDGE) says that the market's expectations are swinging between extremes -- from a high-greed environment to a high-fear market and back again -- and that investors should pay more attention to technical signals because there are so many unknowns happening to fundamentals for the foreseeable future. Lamensdorf believes in buying fear and selling greed and expects opportunities for both during volatile market swings ahead. Also on the show, Brian Kersmanc of GQG Partners notes that investors 'can't predict when it's going to rain, but can build arks,' and suggests getting defensive, diversifying across asset classes and countries and going 'where the data points lead you.' Plus Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com discusses how Americans feel their personal financial standing is after three years of the Trump Administration, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth investing in the Market Call.
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group returns to the show for another intimate life and money discussion. Dealing with ALS or Lou Gehrig's Disease, Falk explains why he doesn't think today's investors should be wasting time and money on bonds, noting that he won't buy any during the short time he has left but why younger, healthier people shouldn't buy them either. He also discusses how the pandemic and the advancing disease has, again, changed some of his priorities and his abilities to accomplish them. Also on the show, David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight discusses his group's latest survey on investor attitudes, Mark Blyth discusses his new book, 'Angrynomics,' and the need for society to harness its anger to create change, and David Trainer talks about why a home-builder that the market thinks is headed for trouble is actually an attractive buy right now.
Money manager Jim O'Shaughnessy -- the best-selling author of 'What Works on Wall Street' -- says that investors can look back through history to see that the United States has come through 'some really scary things.' which is why his outlook hasn't and won't change. He's expecting to ride out the current stock market and economic concerns, betting on the American people to 'figure stuff out.' Also on the show, Larry Antonatos of Brookfield Asset Management discusses real assets and which ones he expects to perform well heading into 2021, Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios talks the market's technicals and expects a short-term pullback before the Standard and Poor's 500 index rebounds to new highs around Labor Day, and John Barr of the Needham Growth and Needham Aggressive Growth Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that the market has written off 2020 and is looking out to 2021, meaning that upcoming corporate guidance is likely to have more market impact than soon-to-be-released economic numbers. Thomas noted that the market's rebound -- which he warns could be affected sharply by coronavirus news concerning a resurgence of afflicted Americans -- has been so strong and fast that it has brought most of the market to unattractive pricing levels. While Thomas is worried about the potential for short-term market troubles, he suggests that investors lengthen their time horizon because the long lens makes it much easier to keep risk and daily market volatility in proper perspective. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com suggests an exchange-traded fund made up of 'fallen knives,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses travel-credit cards and whether they are worth their fees at a time when few cardholders are traveling, and Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital talks stocks in the Market Call.
In an extended Big Interview, Dan Fuss -- vice chairman of Loomis Sayles and Co., and a leading bond fund manager for more than half a century -- says that investors should not feel that bonds can play their traditional role as a portfolio safety net right now because fixed-income investments can't provide the level of yield investors typically expect. Fuss says the market 'is far more dangerous on the credit side than people know.' Also on the show, Catherine Yoshimoto of FTSE Russell discusses the 'Russell Reconstitution' process, which will reshape Russell's indexes while making this Friday one of the biggest volume days of the year, and Charles Norton of the Vitium Global Fund discusses sin stocks -- alcohol, gaming, tobacco and defense companies -- in the Market Call.
Mark Newton of Newton Advisors says that while markets are poised to move higher into July, they face a challenging path to continue rising as the economy reopens. Newton favors health care stocks and commodities, but dislikes financials. Also on the show, Alessandro Valentini of Causeway Capital Management discusses what it will take for value investing to finally deliver superior results to growth stocks. Warning, he said it could take a long time, noting that low interest rates make it more difficult for value to get any traction. Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses the financial regrets many people have about their financial preparedness for the global pandemic, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds talks stock in the Market Call.
Stephanie Kelton, an economist whose recent book 'The Deficit Myth' has moved onto the best-seller lists, says that the many real problems facing the country -- including but not limited to the coronavirus pandemic, the loss of jobs and health care and benefits for many workers, and more -- can be solved or helped by the government increasing targeted spending, but she notes that concerns about such spending creating a bigger deficit problem are overblown. The deficit, she notes, is a number without 'good' or 'bad' attached. Also on the show, Jonathan Treussard of Research Affiliates talks about the challenges of and benefits to keeping a long-term investment mindset, Megan Fielding of Nuveen talks about how the surge in interest in social investing is being driven by improved performance in ESG funds, and David Trainer of New Constructs looks at a stock that he thinks is dramatically undervalued now.
David Jilek, chief investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that high valuations and disrupted earnings make the market now riskier than it was before the global pandemic, and while that won't necessarily create a crash it will make the indexes more susceptible to volatility spikes and large impacts from small disruptions. With trade tensions, oil-pricing wars, the election and a slew of economic numbers all ahead in the news feed, he warns that the market could be uncomfortable for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, D.R.Barton Jr.. of Straight-Up Profits says technical analysis suggests that the market's rebound may have been too much, too soon and that he'd be surprised if there wasn't a major drawdown before the year ends, Zach Forman of Griffin Capital Securities talks interval funds and how illiquidity is actually seen as a plus in current market conditions, and Chris Armbruster of Kayne Anderson Rudnick talks mid-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that the stock market is getting 'a BTE bounce' -- better than expected -- but that it's not following its usual seasonal patterns which tend to show weakness in the summertime. Stovall says that the market is rotating the way he'd expect from a downturn like the one experienced in March, but that the 'bizarro' market is trading in reverse of what he'd expect both in terms of the industries and sectors that are in favor and the timing within the year. Still, Stovall says that investors and economists are acting like they expect a V-shaped recovery and he thinks they likely are right, for now. In another Big Interview today, Michael Mullaney of Boston Partners also is optimistic about the market, for now, though he notes that the market has been reacting to virus news and has been taking the rest of the news -- including the potential election results -- lightly for now. Also on the show, Tom Lydon makes a gambling and Internet gaming fund his 'ETF of the Week," and Peter Colis of Ethos discusses the 'Financial Legacy Index.'
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 to be between 3,400 and 3,600 by the end of 2021, meaning that the market will be volatile without a lot of upside as it heads back toward a fully functioning economy. Wren noted that economic data has been better than expected, which has helped the market and investors avoid the worst of worst-case outcomes. Also on the show, author Scott McLean discusses the importance of getting your personal team of financial advisers to work together and the cost of having planners, tax preparers and others who are not on the same page, and Patrick Healey of Caliber Financial Partners discusses the barbell investment strategy he uses for stock portfolios in the Market Call.
Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says that rapid snap-back after the stock market's big March swoon was the 'least-expected outcome' from a sharp decline, and is symbolic of just how hard it is to make accurate technical forecasts right now. Grimes says the Federal Reserve's clear intention 'to do whatever it talks as long as it takes' has created significant market distortions, leaving more unknowns at this point, which should have investors on edge. Also on the show, Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at VantagePoint Investment Advisors gave his outlook for the market, Vivian Tsai of the College Saving Foundation covers her organization's survey on how students see college plans and careers changing in the wake of the global pandemic, and Nick Raich of The Earnings Scout talks earnings trends and stocks in the Market Call.
Long-time Wall Street observer Charles Biderman says that the current market is showing signs of craziness that should scare investors, with companies seeing revenue declines that might bankrupt a business in ordinary conditions but that Wall Street investors are bidding up now. He urges caution and suggests a heavy dose of research for anyone wading into the market now, because the market seems to be inflating a bubble while ignoring that these are bubbly conditions. Also on the show, David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight on their latest poll of institutional investors, David Trainer of New Constructs covers an attractive stock rather than heading for trouble in the Danger Zone, and Justin Carbonneau, partner at Validea.com talks gurus and the value behind their strategies in the Market Call.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer for the Merk Funds,says that with market volatility and uncertainty picking up, investors should focus on their process and should stick with their plan rather than jumping around chasing either additional returns or greater safety right now. He notes that investors whose process is not working right now are the ones who are are so nervous that they can't sleep soundly; he recommends adding gold and diversifying portfolios to improve the sleep factor. Also on the show, author and technical analyst Michael Sincere says he thinks the market is 'in real trouble right now,' noting that he would not be surprised if it retests March lows because 'it went up too far too fast' only to see the uptrend stall out this week. Michael Spactacco of Bancroft Capital says that changes to the way closed-end funds are issued makes new offerings attractive right out of the box, and Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments talks value investing in the Market Call.
Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management say that while the current market reminds him a bit of the tech bust of 2000 -- when many people thought that because the market had gone higher that it would just keep going higher -- he does believe that the worst of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic are behind us. Still, he notes in the Market Call that investors should expect some trouble ahead and be prepared to ride it out, especially in market areas that have not been going gangbusters lately, such as banking and insurance companies. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks at the new ETF version of a popular mutual fund that has been around for nearly three decades, Jacqui Kearns of Affinity Federal Credit Union talks about the need for families feeling the financial crunch of the pandemic to have the hard discussions, and Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com gives her quick take on how people facing the end of unemployment benefits should respond while the money is still flowing.
Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Voya Investment Management, says that with the market near record highs despite earnings that are below expectations, it's not surprising that many observers think that stocks are overvalued now. He doesn't see things that way, noting that stocks are a good opportunity -- especially small caps and international stocks which have been the laggards in the recent rally -- while lightening up on bonds, except for corporates where he sees some improved return potential ahead. Also on the show, Harvard professor Rebecca Henderson talks about her book 'Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire,' and Chris Carter, portfolio manager for the Buffalo Mid Cap Fund makes his debut in the Market Call.
In a recent column, Chuck said that financial advisers who accepted PPP loans during the coronavirus pandemic were lacking in character. Barry Ritholtz, a leading financial adviser whose $1.3 billion wealth-management firm accepted PPP loans, is 'on the other side' from Chuck and gives his reasoning for taking the loans as he and Chuck cover the issues buried behind the paperwork in the government loan program. Also on the show, Jack Kleinhenz of the National Retail Federation talks about the National Association for Business Economics' second-quarter survey of expectations, and Andy Braun of Pax Large Cap Fund talks big companies and social investing in the Market Call.
Julia Carlson, chief executive officer at the Financial Freedom Wealth Management Group, says that investors should be riding the wave of renewed optimism and the stock market that has recovered from March lows, but she says there will be a longer-term price to pay, and that investors should be preparing for the long-term fallout from current stimulus efforts,which could be higher taxes and rising inflation, which she expects to see late next year or in 2022. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com discusses the implications and fallout from the May jobs report, David Trainer talks about a stock he likes as it emerges from the pandemic economy, and Jim Lowell of the Fidelity Investor newsletter talks about mutual funds in the Market Call..
Alan Gayle of Via Nova Investment Management says that while investors should be pleased with pleased with the market's rally from March lows, he expects trouble ahead, noting that the rally may be early given the prospects for real economic growth as the economy reopens from the coronavirus shutdown. 'We need to fell better,' he says in explaining why his cash holdings are up, 'but I don't think we can feel great at this stage.' Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth of CFRA Research talks ETFs in the Market Call, Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services says why he does not like the look of the market's technicals and is expecting a pullback, and Phillip Goldstein of Bulldog Investors discusses why a recent Securities and Exchange Commission decision could be a death knell for activist investing in closed-end funds.
Ken McAtamney, portfolio manager for the William Blair Global Leaders Fund, says that the resumption of activity and the unlocking of businesses means that, sequentially, the economy will pick up speed quarter after quarter. While the economy will resume a low-growth trajectory, the market can move forward and he says he expects it to do that while avoiding a major meltdown over the next few years. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new momentum-oriented fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck answers an unusual question about using credit cards, and Craig Hodges of the Hodges Funds says in the Market Call that value and small-cap stocks have started a comeback.
Chris Huemmer, senior investment strategist at Flexshares, and the FlexShares Quality Dividend Index, says that dividend income streams may become disconnected with stock prices, and that investors shouldn't chase yield but also need to evaluate dividend cuts and suspensions to see if the moves are temporary or caused by real financial difficulties. Also on the show, author Chip Munn talks 'The Retirement Remix,' and Giorgio Caputo, senior fund manager and head of multi-asset value for J.O. Hambro Capital Management talks fixed-income investments and warns about the potential pitfalls of using business-development companies to increase yield now.
Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, says that the stock market is completing a cycle and working its way toward a top, but that investors should be prepared for what happens next, which could be a 'garden-variety' pullback of about 20 percent, an extreme decline that re-tests recent lows or a move toward a 'zombie economy' and protracted, extended market trouble. While nothing in the market's charts and technicals suggests the doomsday scenario, Bierman notes that the magnitude of the worst downturns often catch experienced analysts by surprise. Also on the show, Jeff James of Driehaus Capital talks small-cap stocks, Rob Spivey of Valens Research makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck answers a question about pet insurance.
Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners, says that investors should be tactical given current market conditions, which means having more exposure to stocks now -- at a point when economic woes will be revealed as the business world reopens -- than they did as the market was going through troubles at the start of pandemic conditions. Also on the show, Ken Tumin of DepositAccounts.com talks about short- and long-term savings rates, author Christopher Robertson discusses the nation's health-insurance system and its inadequacies, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts a mutual fund that he says isn't all it's cracked up to be into the 'Danger Zone.'
Bill Stone of Stone Investment Partners says that as the economy starts to crank up again, the market is likely to respond positively, even as investors know that the growth numbers will look good only because they're being compared against economic stoppage. Eventually, however, Stone says the market will want to see good numbers; because those numbers could be elusive, he says investors will want to maintain a balanced, diversified strategy while they see how any recovery unfolds. Also on the show, Trip Miller of Gullane Capital Partners talks value investing in the Market Call, John Kosar of Asbury Research gives his technical outlook, and Andrew Kerai of RiverNorth Capital Management discusses why he thinks the credit market offers a uniquely good opportunity now.
Tony Tanner, portfolio manager with the Aquila Group of Funds, says that the troubled economy and lower interest rates will hit the bond market and should convince investors to diversify their fixed-income holdings; unlike many bond-industry watchers, Tanner notes that he is not expecting a big wave of defaults, though he said credit-quality will be challenged. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks about hot pet-health companies with his pick for the ETF oft he Week, Ryan Breslow of Bolt.com discusses his firm's most recent survey on consumer behavior, and Tim Fortier of Drawbridge Strategies discusses what his Market Demand Indicator currently shows about where the market is headed.
Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private Bank, says that global public spending on health care has been stagnant for the last two decades, and the pandemic has highlighted infrastructures and governments that were not prepared to protect their people and deal with a crisis. While Wall Street has largely ignored the issues, he says there is a clear link between countries that have sufficient health care to maintain hope and the markets with the best returns, which is why he suggests focusing on developed markets, including the United States. Also on the show, Chuck tackles an audience member's question on rebalancing, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses how the pandemic is affecting long-term savings, and Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel talks growth stocks int he Market Call.
Laura Geritz, chief executive officer at Rondure Global Advisors, says that the U.S. and China are holding up the world economy with their spending during the coronavirus pandemic, but she cautions that if those economies falter -- and they have little room to expand spending -- it will be hard to find stocks to buy there. She prefers countries with no reserve currency now, nations where she finds that the consumer has controlled their 'animal spirits' and there is room to grow spending, noting that most emerging markets but China qualify as having growth potential even amid slowing growth worldwide. Also on the show, Sarah Berger, writer at MagnifyMoney.com discusses how many consumers are already tapping retirement accounts to get through the viral economy, author Zachary D. Carter discusses 'The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes,' and Chuck answers a question from an audience member on how to prioritize withdrawals from savings.
Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark, says that the structural and societal changes and advancements that have allowed the economy to not be in more-significant trouble thanks to the coronavirus pandemic are also laying the base for an economy that ultimately will emerge strong, with stocks providing the best chance to come out ahead several years down the line. He notes that the United States -- despite the issues it faces -- is positioned 'to come out of this as one of the winners.' Also on the show, Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investments talks cryptocurrencies and how bitcoin is proving its value as an alternative to gold and a portfolio diversifier, Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders says the technicals show the market to be 'in a no-man's land between a bull and bear market' and while he expects a dip back to March lows, he believes there are good opportunities for traders. Also, Kelly Thompson of Direct Lending Deals talks about how the economic slowdown has affected the middle-market financing of business-development companies and how she expects BDCs to restructure and bounce back.
Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors, says that the bond market is particularly difficult right now but that domestic issues remain stronger than the rest of the world, and could be buoyed by rates that rise slightly sooner than many people expect. He notes that with the Federal Reserve committed to keeping interest rates in positive territory, rates really only have one direction to go from here. Also on the show, Michael Robinson, chief technology strategist at Money Map Press says in the Market Call that technology companies aren't just good investments right now, they are the reason the economy has been able to avoid a depression, noting that if it weren't for technological advancements the country could not have done as much work-at-home commerce as it has throughout the current pandemic. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a gold fund his 'ETF of the Week,' and Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com on how subscription spending of all types has ramped up amid social distancing.
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that the backdrop of economic challenges has made dividend income more important than ever for investors, but the market concerns also have companies suspending and cutting distributions. He discusses dealing with the stocks that have trimmed dividends as well as the sectors that he expects to lead the pack going forward. Also on the show, Brian Dumaine, author of 'Bezonomics: How Amazon Is Changing Our Lives and What the World's Best Companies Are Learning from It,' and Mike Brown of LendEDU. Plus Chuck gives his harsh assessment of financial advisory firms that have accepted Small Business Association loans to get through the pandemic.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says that the markets have good reason to be optimistic long-term, despite the economic issues that are surfacing now, noting that 'This is not going to be a long depression, it's going to be a really ugly brief recession.' Also on the show, Tom Florence, chief executive officer at 361 Capital, covers the role that alternative investments should be playing in a portfolio now, William Delwiche of Baird Investments talks technical analysis at a time when so many market influences are not visible or measurable in the daily charts, and Meredith Stoddard of Fidelity Investments discusses investors' market sentiments during the pandemic.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, said that insurance giant Allstate Corp. is an attractive stock despite a significant recent decline resulting mostly from the market's reaction to the coronavirus pandemic. Trainer -- who normally warns investors away from securities in the Danger Zone segment -- made Allstate one of his attractive stocks, noting that the company is significantly overvalued, with the market apparently believing it will never again reach the highs of recent years, while Trainer believes the stock is poised to exceed those previous levels. Also on the show, Gene Tannuzzo of Columbia Threadneedle Investments talks about interest rates and how the Fed is playing the current crisis straight from the disaster handbook, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses how Americans' finances are faring as the pandemic stretches on, and Ben Johnson of Morningstar Inc. covers ETFs in the Market Call.
Pamela Woo, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says that investors need to trust their allocations and plans while also looking for stocks that will come through the current recession positioned for a strong future. She expects to see a recovery that gets off to a hot start as the economy reawakens, but that won't recapture previous levels for e foreseeable future when the pandemic has ended. Also on the show, Matt Freund of the Calamos Long-Short Equity and Dynamic Income Fund on rebounding from the recent bottoms, Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com talks about the value of technical analysis in unprecedented market times, and Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp., compares the way the real estate market is responding to conditions created by the coronavirus pandemic and the voluntary economic slowdown with the way it reacted to the 2008 financial crisis, which was triggered by problems in the housing and real estate sectors.
Mike Lippert, portfolio manager at Baron Opportunity, says that investors can still find opportunities in a troubled market that tends to have investors clustering in a few areas, including cloud computing and other technologies that are helping people shelter at home currently but which stand to benefit from a more-permanent, long-term shift to independent work spaces. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com likes the same space, making the very hot WisdomTree Cloud Computing ETF his 'ETF of the Week.' Also, Chuck takes an audience question about prioritizing spending and savings, and Chris Retzler, manager of the Needham Small Cap Growth Fund -- the-performing traditional mutual fund of 2019 and the leading small-cap fund again this year -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, says that trying to find clarity in the current economic situation is 'like trying to put in eye drops while you're surfing,' but he says that he doesn't expect to see the much-discussed U- or V-shaped bottom to any troubles, saying instead that there will be a square-root sign shape, meaning volatile drops and recoveries before things flatten out for a while. Also on the show, Natalie Campisi of Bankrate.com discusses buying and selling homes amid coronavirus precautions, Chuck answers a question about whether these times call for 'extra diversification,' and Tucker Walsh of the Polen US Small Company Growth Fund makes his debut in the Market Call.
David Tice, chief investment officer at the Ranger Active Bear Fund, says that the market will re-test its lows and break through them as it goes through a long, volatile decline. He says investors should not expect a 'standard, garden-variety recession,' but instead will see a depression, though he does not expect a market crash to be part of that problem, noting that the market will grind down as the pandemic economy plays out. Also on the show, author Julia Hobsbawm talks about simplifying your life and changing your relationship with technology, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com talks funds in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist for Payden and Rygel Investment Management, reacts to Friday's massive unemployment numbers by noting that the good news in the report -- that 78 percent of the jobless say their personal trouble is temporary -- may be a bit too optimistic, with the reality being that 40 to 50 percent of the lost jobs may be permanent or longer than anticipated, which would slow any recovery. Also on the show, Mike Brown of LendEDU.com discusses troubles consumers are having paying off student loans right now and how forgiveness programs are working, David Trainer of New Constructs discusses why he thinks passive investors are due for some heightened pain ahead, and John Bonnanzio, editor at Fidelity Monitor and Insight newsletter talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at US Global Investors, says that investors heading for cash are being too conservative because the market is creating opportunities in areas that are troubled, like airlines, but he is also expecting the economic stimulus efforts to generate inflationary pressure that will make gold particularly attractive during volatile market times head. Also0 on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance compares closed-end funds with non-listed interval funds, Matt Zajechowski of Digital Third Coast discusses how Americans' grocery-shopping habits have changed during the quarantine, and Leon Wilfan of Lahardan Financial talks stocks in the Market Call.
Wall Street veteran Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, came back to Money Life revising the forecasts he made for 2020 because coronavirus circumstances changed so much about the market and economy. Revisiting, altering or renewing his predictions for the remainder of the year, he says the market should ultimately establish its bottom in April or May, with the short recession ending in time for the market to start a long recovery by year's end. Doll said that earnings, which have cratered and will continue collapsing through the second quarter, will 'rise smartly' by the fourth quarter. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a brand-name core index fund his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chris Cordaro, chief investment officer at Regent Atlantic, discusses what he has been telling clients to help them navigate the crisis.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist for Invesco, says he expects a rally in small-caps and value stocks as the new economic cycle starts, but he believes those sectors will receive as new growth takes over. Long-term, he believes it will be the solid growth companies -- the ones that have real solutions and that can bring that ingenuity to the market -- that will lead the way forward to a recovery. Also on the show, author Philip Coggan talks about globalization and the development of the worldwide economy, Sarah Berger of MagnifyMoney.com discusses a survey showing on how confused Americans are around fees on their financial accounts, and Chuck answers audience questions about credit reports.
Brent Schutte of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management says that the viral economy is, effectively, a four-step process that we are half-way through, with re-opening the economy and creating a vaccine for coronavirus the next steps. Meanwhile, he notes that upcoming bad economic news is easy to overlook because 'we cause the economic data to be bad,' but it will be watched carefully -- and be important to investors -- as Americans go back to work and the long-lasting impacts of the shutdown are realized. In the Market Call, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Asset Management says that 'The world is very delicate right now, and patience will be rewarded for investors,' noting that he is looking tactically at gold, cash, master limited partnerships and more as buying opportunities. Also on the show, JJ Kinahan of TD Ameritrade talks about his firm's Investor Movement Index, which shows that individuals have mostly done the right thing in this slowdown by not throwing away long-held strategies to avoid short-term pain.
Howard Steven Friedman, author of "Ultimate Price: The Value We Place on Life," says that society and government are wrestling with a balance and trade-off that comes with no hard-and-fast rules or math when it decides on the value of life versus the benefits of re-opening the economy. He discusses his book, the pandemic and how governments have traditionally made decisions on the value of lives. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub talks about a survey showing that 58 million Americans are spending more money shopping while in quarantine than they did before they sheltered at home, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights two troubled stocks that he thinks are headed for a rebound and, in the Market Call, Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Investment Partners explains why he will be riding out the pandemic mostly in big, boring, brand-name stocks.
Terri Spath, chief investment officer at the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that the stimulus actions of the Federal Reserve Bank helped to set a floor on the market, which means that the 'lows are in for the year.' That doesn't mean the market can't go down from here, but rather that she doesn't expect it to fall past the lows set in the March downturn; with that limited downside, Spath says that remaining patient in long-term investments when volatility is up over the summer will be investors' biggest challenge. Also on the show, Bill Meyers of Nuveen discusses how kleverage works in closed-end funds, Leonard Wright of AICPA talks about Americans; waning personal financial satisfaction, and Stan Haithcock -- "Stan the Annuity Man" -- looks at annuity sales pitches and what consumers should listen to and the deals they should avoid.
Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn in Orleans, Mass. -- the first-ever Market Call guest -- returns to the show as Money Life celebrates its eighth anniversary to discuss the ways he factors news and events into investment decisions, and notes that processing the virus economy and evaluating changing corporate guidance makes for confusing times for investors. He said that with oil prices in the headlines, he expects to see a 'shocking rebound in oil, coming somewhere in the next cycle when the economy is recovering.' Also on the show, tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a genomics fund his pick for ETF of the Week, Brian Krawez of Scharf Investments talks markets, and Jean Statler of the Alliance for Lifetime Income discusses survey data showing that investors may not control the timing of their retirement nearly as much as they expect to.
Sarah Ketterer, chief executive officer at Causeway Capital Management, says that the most cyclical stocks -- the ones at the 'epicenter of pain for the coronavirus -- are relatively low-risk bargains for opportunistic investors. She notes that airlines, travel companies, tourism businesses and hospitality and hotel firms -- with stocks down 40 to 60 percents and yet to have any real bounce-back from the March decline -- are worthy of consideration while the blood keeps running in the streets if the balance sheet is strong, noting that if businesses like cruise lines can 'make it another 18 months without a penny of revenue, that's really interesting.' Also on the show, Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar gives her take on what investors should be doing to get through the pandemic, Jeff Lipton of Oppenheimer and Co. discusses how the potential for states' bankruptcies would change and could impact the muuni bond market, and Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com covers a survey on Americans' household credit status.
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial management, says that investors should be looking for stocks that they can expect to recover over 18 months to two years, but despite the market's decline and potential rough times through the current economic downturn, he warned that any market troubles may not represent easy buying opportunities for investors, noting that it won't be as simple as just buying into dips to trigger a fast portfolio recovery. Also on the show, Dmitriy Katsnelson of Wealthspire Advisors discusses what he is telling clients right now, Dr. Billy Hensley of the National Endowment for Financial Education discusses a survey revealing alarmingly high levels of stress among American savers and investors, and Eric Clark of the Rational Dynamic Brands fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jim Golan, co-portfolio manager at William Blair Large-Cap Growth Fund, said that investors looking to be opportunistic now need to use a long lens and look for companies that will be in a better position than they are today, noting that the interim period -- as stocks and the market finish processing the hibernation economy and return to something more normal -- will be volatile and make it difficult to judge just how strong investment picks are, but that strong balance sheets and good fundamentals will pay off for investor who can buy them for now and hold onto them long enough. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of Creditcards.com discusses how lenders are closing unused credit cards and lines of credit and how consumers can protect themselves, David Trainer of NewConstructs.com highlights a stock that he finds attractive in these market conditions, and Jorden Waldrep of TrueMark Investments talks stocks in the Market Call.
Steven Durlauf, economics professor at the University of Chicago, says the perceived trade-offs between re-starting the economy and continuing quarantine is, in the short run, illusory. Lack of shelter-in-place, Durlauf says, creates such bad consequences for the health system -- and a re-started economy won't recover until everyone leaves home and participates fully -- that the choice between the two sides is not a true trade-off. Durlauf says that the current radical uncertainty would leave him surprised if the economy recovers in less than 18 to 36 months. In a 'Technical Difficulties' interview, Avi Gilburt of Elliott Wave Trader says that the current 2,700 to 2,900 range on the Standard and Poor's 500 is a 'battle zone,' and that if the market falls below 2,690, it could drop to the 2,060 range, while if it rallies and breaks through the 2,900 resistance, it could return to the 3,100 level in the next few weeks. Also on the show, Adam McCabe of Aberdeen Standard Investments talks about emerging markets and whether they have an edge having moved past the worst of the viral curve, and author Dan Simon discusses his book 'The Money Hackers' and the changing landscape of money, cash and global financial technology.
FeiFei Li, head of equities at Research Affiliates says the COVID-19 outbreak was a catalyst that turned questionable market conditions worse, but that the root causes for concern are still in place. Li, however, is bullish long-term even if she sees the market as being likely to take a big leg down from current levels; she says that the bear market of February was too quick and shallow, but it left the market at more attractive levels than at the end of 2019 or in February before the economic shutdown. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com with the ETF of the Week, Ken Tumin of DepositAccounts.com talking online savings rates, and Josh Pearl, author of "The Little Book of Investing Like the Pros: 5 Steps for Picking Stocks."
Andrew Beer of the iM DBi Hedge Strategy and the iM DBI Managed Futures Strategy ETFs, says that the long-lasting impacts from the global coronavirus shutdown will hit different areas, sectors, industries and countries in very different ways as recovery begins. While investors are right to be expecting trouble, Beer says that the fallout -- particularly if resources get scarce and fights for them become acute -- could create 'an enormous amount of volatility,' which also will create tremendous opportunities. Also on the show, Steve Resch of Finance of America Reverse discusses reverse mortgages and how they could become an increasingly important tool for retirees and near-retirees during any prolonged downturn, Health Silverman of Stessa.com who covers his site's survey of real estate investment trends, and Greg Hammer of Hammer Financial Group, who gives a quick take on the tax-law changes created during the crisis and what consumers should know about them.
Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Total Return Fund, says that the pandemic economy has put such a big wrench in the markets and life that it forces investors to rethink what makes a prudent investment now. He notes that investors have to cast a cautious eye to fixed income and be wary of chasing yields by extending bond duration. Also on the show, John Divine of US News and World Report says that the stock market's current value seems to ignore long-term concerns that have not even begun to play out, Bill Harmon of Voya Financial discusses a survey showing whether Americans' are changing their long-term investments plans, and Lamar Villere of the Villere Funds finds growth at a reasonable price in the Market Call.
Ken Applegate, portfolio manager at Wasatch International Growth, says that Japan -- and particularly small-cap companies there -- will be an area that investors should see leading the way as global markets recover from the coronavirus pandemic shutdown. Applegate says that economies that were struggling before the pandemic -- including most of Europe with low or negative interest rates -- are likely to struggle more to recover because they will have a tough time getting money flowing again. In another Big Itnerview, Toby Loftin of the Hennessy Funds talks about energy and midstream stocks, noting that investors will have to change the way they see these issuers -- and react to potential dividend cuts -- to buy low now and ride the long, slow path to recovery. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.comKyle Guske of New Constructs avoids adding to shelter-at-home miseries by singling out a stock headed for trouble in the Danger Zone and, instead, talks about an issue that has become particularly attractive for investors now.
David Goerz of Strategic Frontier Management, says that the market overshot the negative at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and that as clarity develops about re-opening the economy he expects the market to climb the wall of worry through to the end of the year. While he says the second quarter of 2020 will be 'a throw-away,' he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 to finish the year near 3,000, up more than 10 percent from current levels and representing a loss of just 5 percent on the year. Also on the show, Nicole Eisenberger of Ernst and Young on valuation issues inside of business-development companies, Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate talks about survey results showing how Americans are struggling financially right now, and Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group discusses funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Tim Clift, chief investment strategist at Envestnet, says that even the current downturn -- as big as it has been and could grow to -- ultimately will become a blip on an investor's radar, which is why it's important to hold fast to financial plans and not make nervous moves that alter asset allocation, typically at just the wrong time. Empirically, Clift says he has not seen individual investors getting panicky, though he notes that a prolonged slowdown and a market drop could change behaviors for the worse. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new ETF with an unusual strategy his 'ETF of the Week,' Ande Frazier of myWorth talks financial priorities when money gets tight, and Art Amador of the AI Powered Equity ETF talks investments selected using artificial intelligence in the Market Call
Howard Silverblatt of SP Dow Jones Indexes says that after a record first quarter for dividend payouts -- in which $127 billion in distributions were made -- income-producing stocks have seen a dramatically changed landscape as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. As precautions ramped up, 13 companies cut or suspended dividend payments that would have totaled roughly $14 billion in March. That trend of dividend reductions and shutdowns is just beginning, Silverblatt says, noting that investors should expect reduced payouts and that stock buybacks will be rare for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, author Gerald Posner talks about the pharmaceuticals industry and its changing future when the viral economy subsides, former SEC director Norm Champ talks about how individuals can better ride out the chaos of the crumbling economy, and Chuck answers an audience member's question about a popular fund whose manager was recently on the show as a guest.
Warren Pierson, deputy chief investment officer at the Baird Funds, said that while the worst dislocation of the viral economy is now starting to wind down, the uncertainty ahead will shape and potentially surprise the bond market, as credit downgrades, low interest rates and more play out for at least the rest of the year as a recovery struggles to to gain a foothold. Also on the show, Preston Caldwell from Morningstar Inc. discusses the firm's best, worst and current forecasts for the economic outcomes from the COVID-19 pandemic, Chuck answers an audience question about deciding which securities to sell in order to raise cash now, and Don Rich from the Esoterica NextG Economy ETF talks stocks in the Market Call.
Rusty Vanneman, chiefinvestment officer at Orion Advisor Technology, says that if your asset allocation and investment plan were appropriate prior to the global pandemic, they remain appropriate and proper today, meaning that most investors should not be changing their holdings much in the middle of current troubles, even as they look for opportunities going forward. Vanneman believes that there will be superior economic growth when the viral economy ends, which should lead to value stocks and small-cap stocks -- two areas that were lagging the market pre-crisis -- becoming leaders. Also on the show, Ken Simonson discusses results from the latest National Association of Business Economics survey, where wide-ranging results show how hard the current situation is to analyze, Phil Haslett of EquityZen discusses the initial-public offering and pre-IPO markets, and David Trainer of New Constructs says that certain research efforts are undermined by the economic shut-down, creating problem areas for investors who rely on those numbers.
Angus Deaton of Princeton University -- winner of the 2015 Nobel Prize for Economics -- discusses rising trends in 'deaths of despair' -- from suicide, overdose and addiction -- and how capitalism must change to stem the tide, but also how the health care system must change coming out of the viral economy to face new and different challenges ahead. Also on the show, Andrew Foster of Seafarer Capital discusses emerging markets and whether coming out of the virus cycle early will create any advantages for them, Jerremy Newsom of Real Life Trading discusses the market's technical indicators, and John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance chats about discounts and offers several attractive options for bargain hunters to consider now.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, said that while the stock market is struggling and not yet showing compelling values, he is confident that a rebound is coming globally and that the United states -- and specifically domestic large-cap growth stocks -- will lead the way for investors looking to climb out of the hole put in their portfolio by the market's recent draw down. Also on the show, Jason Brady, chief executive officer at Thornburg Investment Management , suggests that income and dividend investors will need to be cautious during the recovery because income investments will be changed by and reflect current market conditions for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an intermediate muni-bond fundtime his ETF of the Week, and Mike Brown of LendEDU.com is back to give an update on his site's survey of consumers' financial reaction to the COVID-19.
Nick Niziolek, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, has been watching how China, Korea and emerging markets are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, and while he is not expecting a snap-back globally, he calls the progress and the speed of the recovery 'encouraging,' and says he expects to see similar progress domestically as the US moves through the viral cycle. Niziolek notes that the impacts of the virus and the changes it creates int he economy could affect and change the market and specific industries for decades. Also on the show, Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate talks about how the mortgage market changes -- and where consumers stand in their mortgages -- now as compared to the recession of 2008, Chuck answers an audience question about a big dividend-paying stock, and Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, says his company's 'Recession Risk Dashboard' shows that the economy is now fully in recession territory and that it could be the worst recession ever, but he notes that thanks to policy response, it will not become a depression. While he expects recovery to take a little longer than many expect -- just because the market will want to be sure the black swan event of coronavirus has ended before committing to a return to buying -- Schulze says a strong recovery is part of the outlook. Also on the show, Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com says he's not ready to buy into this market with much conviction, Matt Zajechowski of Digital Third Coast talks taxes and procrastination, and absolute value manager Brian Frank of the resurgent Frank Value Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, says in the Big Interview that with experts warning about how bad the next few weeks could be from the standpoint of spreading the coronavirus, it leaves investors waiting to see just how deep and how long a resulting recession will be, and what the recovery side of this picture will look like. Despite that cautious talk, Bell notes that when the market drops 30 percent or more, it is presenting a compelling chance to put money to work. Also on the show, Susan Tillery of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants talks about the emotional impacts of elder fraud, David Trainer of New Constructs warns about exchange-traded funds paying exceptionally high dividends, and Kevin Miller of the E-Valuator Funds talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Jim Welsh, portfolio manager at SmartPortfolios, says that in the standard bear market, there is a 'reflex rally,' which is what he feels the market has been going through for roughly the last week, but that the stock market typically can't hold that rally for long before testing new depths. That's why he believes another significant drop lies ahead -- on that could shave nearly 400 points off the Standard and Poor's 500 -- before the real rally begins. Long-term investors with a five-year or longer horizon should ride the market out, Welsh notes, but short-term monies need to be protected. Also on the show, Robert Michaud from New Frontier Advisors discusses the need to be fully diversified coming through troubling market times, Cheryl Pate of Angel Oak Capital discusses community banking investments in closed-end funds, and Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors discusses his disciplined approach to stocks in the Market Call.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance, says that the economy and the stock market are poised to improve from current levels -- although he is not yet ready to call the decline a market bottom and won't try to time one -- but he warned that 'better' could be only part way back to 'normal.' He did say the market ultimately will be higher, though he said it's impossible to know if that will happen in a year, two years or further down the road. Also on teh show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com has a choice that could help rebalance risk as his ETF of the Week, Sarah Berger of MagnifyMoney.com discusses the disconnect between retirement savers' hopes and their actions, and Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management makes his debut in the Market Call.
Ed Shill chief investment officer at QCI Asset Management, says in the Market Call that as the market has moved from overbought in January to dramatically oversold in March, investors should have started looking for opportunities to buy and take small steps to take money off the sidelines and start taking advantage of the bargains. Also on the show, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureaus talks about increasingly popular -- and dangerous -- cryptocurrency scams, Bruce Bond of Innovator ETFs discusses defined-outcome investing and how it has held up in the down market, and Mike Brown of LendEDU.com covers Americans' financial condition as they entered the shelter-at-home economy.
Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, says the global fixed-income picture is such that investors are going to see rates near zero and potentially going negative in the U.S., an unprecedented move that is necessary because 'the economy is coming to a sudden stop,' forcing central bankers to maintain liquidity and income investors to diversify broadly. Before that Big Interview, however, Mark Newton of Newton Advisors says the market's technicals indicate that the market's recent upswing tick is a 'short-term rally within an existing downtrend' meaning another leg down is in the offing, particularly if the market can't rally to and hold 2,792, a key support level on the Standard and Poor's 500. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about the existing level of credit-card debt faced by Americans entering the coronavirus economy and how that will hold challenges and change behaviors as financial pressures mount, and, in the Market Call, Eric Boughton of Matisse Capital says that closed-end fund discounts are at record levels, making 'nearly everything' a buy for investors who can stomach heightened risks.
Dan Keady, chief financial planner at TIAA, says that while investors are looking at their retirement savings and thinking they have been devastated, the market ultimately will help them catch up and recover, provided they don't try to get off the market rollercoaster mid-ride hoping to escape market risk right now. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com discusses survey results on how many Americans have skipped or done without medical care due to its cost, David Trainer of New Constructs puts high-risk dividend stocks in the Danger Zone, and Brian Bollinger of Simply Safe Dividends tries to help listeners find lower-risk payouts from stocks in the Market Call.
John Blank, chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that the market's reaction to the coronavirus public health crisis was foreseeable but overblown, and that strong earnings projections on tap for companies once conditions normalize make a strong rebound look inevitable. He makes the case that the current event-driven recession is not look like the structural recession of 2008, which is why it will be a much shorter event. Also on the show, Thomas Winmill of the Midas Fund discusses how gold has held up, and gives his take on a recent Goldman Sachs' comment urging people to buy gold as the 'currency of last resort,' Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel talks technicals, Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial covers big discounts in closed-end funds in The NAVigator, and Chuck explains why a fun thing he started with his daughter has the show picking today's theme music from 'The Love Boat.'
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co. International, says there will be three phases to the virus economy, and that we are still in the first, which is marked as a time with extreme uncertainty and anxiety. In phase 2, which he expects to start in two to four weeks, Schwartz expects to lose the extreme-ness of it all, but for the volatility to remain. Abate says he is waiting for more investment opportunities but that right now it's too late to sell and too early to buy. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com announces his ETF of the Week, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureaus of New England talks about coronavirus scams, and James Abate of the Centre Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that while the virus economy is a clear and present danger to the financial well-being of average investors -- and while the media has been stoking the fears of how bad the market and economy could be moving forward -- that the biggest threat most investors face right now is their own temperament and the ability to control their emotions and stay calm. He explains how investors need to use behavioral economics to filter out the noise. Also on the show, Jimmy Hausberg from HighTower Advisors talks about how investors should respond to building internal selling pressures, Gerri Detweiler of NAV.com discusses the new FICO credit-scoring system, and Dan Brady of Trendrating.com talks stocks -- and how few of them are worth buying right now -- in the Market Call.
Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says that the stock market won't stabilize until there is a visible path for a 'global return to normalcy,' but adds that she doesn't think the 'long-term fundamental health of the US economy is derailed' by the worldwide reaction to the coronavirus. As such, she will be looking for values and better risk-reward opportunities for when the worst of the troubles are past. Also on the show, Danielle Shay of SimplerTrading.com talks about the market's technicals, the hard time finding support and the growing number of investors who want to trade, Kathy Kristof of SideHusl.com discusses opportunities till out there for individuals who are looking for work while remaining physically distant, and Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Wealth Management makes her debut in the Market Call talking dividend-oriented stocks.
Meb Faber, head of the Cambria Funds and a noted observer of the investment world, says that while the depth and scope of the current downturn is breathtaking, the best way to deal with it remains being steadfast about your investment plans and changing nothing. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts two popular brand-name stocks in the Danger Zone, and Dan Wiener, co-editor at The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors and chairman at Adviser Investments returns to the Market Call to talk mutual funds and ETFs.
Craig Callahan, president of the ICON Funds, says that the stock market's recent downturn has created the best bargains he has ever seen, better than the darkest days from the 2008 financial crisis or any other downturn he has lived through. He noted that all of the supporting conditions for a true buying opportunity are aligning right now; despite that, Callahan says it's not yet time to buy, though he thinks that time is 'close.' Also on the show, Bryce Rowe of National Securities discusses the double-digit dividends and growing discounts on business-development companies in The NAVigator segment, technical analyst John Kosar from Asbury Research says coronavirus has accelerated a downturn the market was setting up for, making the market oversold, although he was not ready to call for a bottom and will be watching if the market can turn roughly 2,350 on the Standard and Poor's 500 into a real support level; also Erin Kelly, author of 'Overload: How Good Jobs Went Bad and What We Can Do About It.'
Veteran personal finance and financial writer John Waggoner visits Chuck for the Big Interview to discuss the many market melt-downs and rebounds they have seen in decades of covering the industry, and while Waggoner is confident that there will be a rebound for current problems, he noted that what is different about this downturn is the suddenness and steepness, combined with no apparent safe havens for making money. 'What's worrisome about today's market is that I don't see anywhere you can make any money on anything,' he says. 'Gold is down, bonds are down, stocks are down, everything is down.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a trend-following bond fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Eddie Perkin of Eaton Vance discusses the way investors are internalizing fear and greed in the current market, and Nick McCullum of Safe Dividends talks income-producing stocks in the Market Call.
Vince Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon notes that pandemics run their course and that most effects of this kind of market shock tend to be temporary. He notes that investors are best served to 'Keep calm and carry on,' as he believes the current downturn ultimately will be matched with a rebound once the effects of coronavirus are near or at an end. ASlso on the show, Andy Morse of HighTower Advisors discusses how investors should react to circumstances like current conditions that they have never seen or experienced before, Steve Utkus of the Vanguard Group talks investor expectations, and Mike Liss of American Century Value covers value investing and whether the market's decline is creating bargains yet in the Market Call.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3Edge Asset Management, says that while the current market environment is extreme and represents a 'very deep hit to the economy,' he sees the potential for a quick and sharp recovery. That said, Folts was defensive before the market turned and remains that way despite the massive drop-off over the last two weeks; he expects beaten down asset classes to start to become attractive soon, and says he will be looking at adding to Asia, emerging markets and possibly gold as he starts to become aggressive closer to the bottom of the cycle. Also on the show, Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors says that the sectors that led the way as the market was peaking last month will likely be the first to recover, though he says he will not be surprised if we get a 'sawtooth recovery' with a lot of ups and downs on the way to bouncing back from current downturns. Nelson Schwartz of the New York times discusses his new book, 'The Velvet Rope Economy' and talks about how the current pandemic is exacerbating the differences between the haves and have-nots, and Greg McBride of Bankrate.com is in to discuss how low mortgage rates have not been enough to keep people from feeling the pinch of paying for their homes.
John Cole Scott, executive chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, says that investors looking for something to buy as they pick through the rubble of the market's recent freefall will find fertile opportunities in closed-end funds, where discounts have widened but yields are up since the market fell away from all-time highs a month ago. Scott offers a few attractive options for today's tough conditions. Also on the show, David Souccar of Vontobel Quality Growth gives an international take on markets, noting that while the moves feel extreme, the responses to them should not be, Kerry Pechter editor of Retirement Income Journal, discusses changes being made to retirement calculators, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs singles out two stocks that he says have entered the Danger Zone.
Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis says the market is oversold but it is falling so hard and fast that there is no solid level of support, and that it could fall further before it starts creating real buy signals. McMillan notes that people may be expecting buying opportunities, but they haven't arrived yet as just one obscure indicator from the many he looks at has created a buy signal, suggesting it's time to start buying again. Also on the show, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Oxford Economics USA, says that the market is pricing in a recession which makes that unlikely that there is any way for the economy to avoid one amid the slowdown of economic activity created by the coronavirus. Also on the show, Kusara Barto of Squaremouth.com talks about how travel insurance is and isn't working for consumers who are thinking they might cancel planned trips, and Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks stocks in the Market Call.
Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that while domestic investors see trouble based on the US market, the coronavirus is having a global impact on markets that is still in the early stages of being sorted out. Coghlan notes that investors who maintain a three- to five-year outlook might find themselves buying into troubled industries like oil, but that anyone with a short-term view can't call a bottom yet, which is why investors should lengthen their time horizons and consider bargain hunting. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a long-term Treasury fund his ETF of the Week, Dave Du Val of TaxAudit.com discusses how Americans are struggling to know IRS rules changes, and Bruce Kaser of The Turnaround Letter discusses in the Market Call the impact of the current decline on the types of troubled companies he pursues.
Chun Wang, portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the Treasury market and credit market are sending two different messages, with the Treasuries actions signaling that the Federal Reserve must move and that recession risk is up, even as the credit market is suggesting that the environment remains healthy. Wang says that coronavirus is less of a market catalyst than an accelerator, bringing troublesome trends to the fore faster than anticipated, but he says that ithe virus economy could trigger a broad recessio in the next six to 12 months. Also on the show, Adam Thurgood of HighTower Advisors Las Vegas talks about implementing -- and sticking with -- a defensive strategy in your portfolio, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses the surprising number of Americans who anticipate missing a credit-card payment this year, and Brian Yacktman of the YCG Funds -- whose YCG Enhanced was the top-performing large-cap growth fund of 2019 -- talks 'enduring pricing power' in the Market Call.
David Wright, lead portfolio manager of the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that Monday's market action put the stock market into oversold territory, but he warned against jumping in now because he expects any snap-back rally to be offset by further declines before the market finds a bottom, and investors who race in could 'catch a falling javelin' if they fall for 'false rallies.' Wright, whose indicators have him out of the market now, believes the current decline is the start of a longer-term bear market. Meanwhile, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, believes the outlook for precious metals is promising in the face of so much global market turmoil and uncertainty, noting that he expects gold to resume its recent climb once the market steadies and he expects it to stay solid while the broader market struggles. Also on the show, Chuck talks about reacting properly -- rather than over-reacting -- to the market right now, and Adam Winslow of AIG Life Insurance discusses a study out today showing the strong emotions that can be tide to a lack of protection.
Jeff Weniger, director of asset allocation at WisdomTree Asset Management, said that the economy was slowing globally before recent troubles and the likely temporary economic effects of coronavirus, and he expects the market to see through the slowdown being caused by the epidemic to avoid long-term trouble, but only after there is more pain market pain. Meanwhile, gas prices are falling, mortgage rates are falling and there are more conditions that will help the market and economy rebound. Also on the show, Ken Tumin of DepositAccounts.com discusses a survey about consumers' financial mistakes, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts two stocks into the Danger Zone, and Mark Travis, manager of the Intrepid Funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brandon Thurber, director of the investment research group at Regions Asset Management says that current market events haven't changed his long-term market outlook, because the economic effects of coronavirus are likely to be transitory. He expects a rollercoaster market at least until election day. Likewise, Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist for Invesco, believes the market's turbulence and the downward pressure exerted by current events, are short-term in nature, saying that patient investors will be rewarded for staying calm. Also on the show, Michael Gayed of The Lead-Lag Report -- which generated a sell signal late in January before the market started to falter -- says he is looking for the bond market to signal when it's an appropriate time to get back into the stock market, and Seth Brufsky of Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund talks high-yield investing in The NAVigator.
Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that the global economy and business environment are poised to see trillions of dollars leave the United States in favor of international investments in the next two years, a trend that will mute the domestic stock market and make it hard to keep pushing forward. Still, McDonald sees the domestic market rebounding, so that any down action caused by the changing business climate will prove a buying opportunity long-term. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an unusual real estate-oriented fund his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the billions in unused gift cards and shopping credits that are going unspent, and Ryan Jacob of the Jacob Funds -- an aggressive-growth technology investor -- talks stocks in the Market Call.
Roger Shaffer of HighTower Advisors, says that individual investors planning their way through the current market turmoil need to focus on process and their ultimate goals rather than on the market's trends, reviewing their risk tolerance and their phase in the financial cycle to make decisions that focus on personal circumstances rather than the market. Also on the show, Dr. Ted Klontz of the Financial Psychology Institute discusses how he believes investors should change some of their savings habits to better reach their goals, Doug Roberts of Channel Capital Research weighs in on the Federal Reserve's big rate cut and what it portends for the future, and Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor talks about energy and utility stocks in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Hirsch of Stock Trader's Almanac said that while investors are focused on the coronavirus troubles and the election year, he believes the market showed its cards when it scored badly on the 'January Barometer' and other technical measures, signalling that it is likely to be flat and volatile for most of the year. Hirsch also discusses how and how long epidemics of the past have affected the market. Also on the show, author Mike Jaccarino discusses 'America's Last Newspaper War,' Nathan Grant of Credit Card Insider discusses tax refunds and credit-card debts, and Jeff Auxier of Auxier Focus Fund discusses value investing in stocks in the Market Call.
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, said the market's action last week represented a 'fairly orderly repricing of risk' in the market, even though the headlines make it seem more dramatic than that. Mullarkey said he expects there to be at least a 'second leg' to the downturn and noted that he'd be patient waiting for more economic data and to see the spread of the coronavirus before he believes any rally represents a real change of direction. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com talks about Americans' imbalance between debt reduction and emergency savings, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a stock that is already on the decline into the Danger Zone saying it could go all the way to zero, and Dana D'Auria of Symmetry Partners talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Bill Nygren, manager of the Oakmark Fund, notes that there is always some sort of crisis or problem that threatens the market, and that investors need to remember that their objective is a real-life financial goal and not winning some game of beating the market now, and he notes that there are compelling values -- even before the current downturn -- that long-term buyers should be considering now rather than focusing on the fallout from coronavirus and other short-term events. Also on the show, Michael Sincere -- who warned of the current downturn on the show at the start of February -- returns to discuss what is next from a technical standpoint now that the Standard and Poor's 500 has broken below its 200-day moving average, Rick Konrad, director of value strategy for The Roosevelt Investment Group talks about value investing's natural advantage in closed-end funds, and Mark Charest of the AlphaCentric LifeSci Healthcare Fund talks biotech and pharmaceutical issues in the Market Call.
Personal finance journalism legend Jane Bryant Quinn joins Chuck today for two interviews, the first focused on the reboot of her book 'How to Make Your Money Last,' the second about the state of the financial media and more. In 1995, Quinn labeled most personal finance journalism as 'financial pornography,' appealing to the worst characteristics of investors; the media world has changed dramatically, but her feelings for much of the information out there have not. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes the sister fund to a big, brand-name issue his ETF of the Week, and Nan Morrison on the Council for Economic Education discusses financial education and literacy in the nation's school systems.
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group returns to the show for a very personal discussion with Chuck -- a conversation they plan to revisit regularly -- about how he has dealt personally and financially with the diagnosis that he has ALS, or Lou Gehrig's Disease. They discuss what goes through the mind of a lifelong planner around money and finances, and the plans for Falk's future, however long it will be, in a unique Big Interview. Also on the show, Matthias Kuhlmey, head of development for HighTower Advisors returns to the show for the first time in about two years to talk markets and planning, Shobin Uralil of Lively discusses how and where Americans spend their health care savings dollars, and Gerry Frigon of Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Ken Berman, strategist at Gorilla Trades, said that despite a 1,000 point sell-off in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Monday, the market still looks good from a long-term perspective. He says long-term technicals remain bullish, and he is optimistic that the coronavirus scare could convince leaders in China and the U.S. to get down to serious trade negotiations faster than without the potential pandemic. Also on the show, Kristen Dillard of Quicken on why most New Year's resolutions are forgotten by now, Simon Lack of SL Advisors talking energy stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck answering an audience member's question on using stop-loss orders to protect against the market's volatile edges.
William Smead, manager of the Smead Value Fund, has been bearish on energy stocks and oil companies for years, but he says in the Market Call that the market has been shifting, which makes energy stocks worth buying. He notes that demographics showing that millennials will double their use of gasoline -- despite the increased acceptance of alternative-energy engines in cars -- and that recent troubles have improved valuations of big oil and energy to where they are worth buying. Likewise, he sees a powerful trend in household formation among millennials that will help home-builders and other consumer businesses. Also on the show, Gerri Walsh of the FINRA Education Foundation talks about investor knowledge levels, Vince Annable discusses the 'Household Endowment Model' for managing money, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts two stocks in the Danger Zone.
Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate discusses the cities and communities where individuals are most likely to live paycheck-to-paycheck and why those communities are so hard for making ends meet, and Chuck has to come to grips with the idea that one of his kids currently lives in the worst place in America for getting by. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of the Active Investment Company Alliance talks muni bonds and preferred stocks held in closed-end funds, author Jean O'Toole discusses scholarship opportunities that most students overlook, and Bill Kornitzer of the Buffalo International Fund talks global investing in the Market Call.
In separate interviews, Matt Harris, head of the outsourced chief investment officer division at HighTower Advisors and Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment reason, both urge investor caution in the near-term future, but for very different reasons. Harris, a technical analyst, notes the recent strength of the Standard and Poor's 500 index compared to its moving 200-day moving average -- the benchmark is 11.5 percent above the average, which has occurred less than two percent of trading days over the last decade -- generally results in a two to five percent decline in two weeks to three months from when it first occurs. Mian, meanwhile, notes that while the current earnings period has been strong, there are signs of weakening results going forward, which combined with events like coronavirus should mute second- and third-quarter earnings.results. Also on the show, Julie Genjac of Hartford Funds discusses adviser expectations for 2020, and Corey Hoffstein of the Newfound/ReSolve Robust Equity Momentum Index talks stocks and ETFs in the Market Call.
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at US Global Investors, says that airline stocks have been sold down as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, and he expects them to have 'a super surge' -- along with hotels and luxury goods companies -- when the crisis ends, which he thinks is just a quarter away. Holmes also discusses gold, blockchain and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com puts the rare bad word in about a specialized fund that he thinks is due for a long stretch of trouble, Brodie Gay of Unison talks real estate appreciation, and Gary Bradshaw of the Hodges Blue Chip Equity Income fund talks brand-name companies in the Market Call.
Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors has a bullish market outlook, noting that extraneous market events like coronavirus don't typically derail longer, larger market themes, and aren't going to overcome the current forces driving the market for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, financial adviser and author Michael Falk discusses how public discussions of entitlements and other big financial topics must change to avoid collapsing, Richard Barrington of MoneyRates.com on how much Americans overpay on credit-card debt, and Christopher Zook of CAZ Investments makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Beitner, portfolio manager of Chautauqua International Growth and Chautauqua Global Growth, says that the market and the global economy are in a delicate condition, which raises fears of how an event like coronavirus could create a downturn. Beitner says he thinks the virus situation is transitory and that the market recognizes that it's not going to crash the market or create once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunities in China and emerging markets; he recommends finding stocks with 'durable stories' to get through choppy, volatile markets. Separately, William Delwiche of Baird says the current rally remains healthy from a technical standpoint, noting that so long as market breadth is strong, investors should not fight the trend. Also on the show, Tony Huang of Advent Convertible and Income Fund talks convertible and closed-end fund investing in The NAVigator, and Garvin Jabusch of Green Alpha Advisors covers stock investments with a social point of view in the Market Call.
Tom Lydon, editor of ETFTrends.com, said that investors looking for a trend play in a market dominated by headlines of and reactions to coronavirus might consider KraneShares MSCI All China Health Care Index, making a tactical play on a defensive emerging-markets sector that balances the fundamentals of China's enormous demographics with the reactions to the news. Lydon, in describing the fund, did suggest that investors only consider it as a trend-following type of investment, and suggested that buyers might want to follow short-term moving averages to set their stops. Also on the show, author Michele Cagan discusses her new primer on debts and how to get out of them, Anuj Nayar of LendingClub.com talks about a study on the reasons why men and women keep financial secrets from their partner, and Barry James of the James Advantage Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Power, strategist at Investec Asset Management, an international money manager, says that something doesn't look right with the American stock market back at record high levels and seemingly 'walking on air' despite the recent inversion of the yield curve and economic numbers that show slowing and increasing weakness. The U.S. market remains the world's strongest, Power said, but that difference is less pronounced, and valuations in other countries may make it so that international investments -- especially in emerging markets -- are more attractive than U.S. stocks and bonds going forward. Also on the show, Jim Ewing of HighTower Advisors discusses how current market conditions make this a particularly good time to rebalance a portfolio, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses Valentine's Day spending, and Louis Navellier of the Navellier Funds talks about growth stocks in the Market Call.
Markus Schomer, chief economist at PineBridge Investments, says he is pricing two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve into his forecasts, and note that so long as investors believe the Fed will come to their rescue and cut rates to pump up the economy, the market will keep going higher. Also on the show, Jeff Bishop of RagingBull.com says that market conditions make this a great time to be trading on dips, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses financial infidelity, and Jeff Mills of Bryn Mawr Trust talks growth stocks and asset-allocation strategies in the Market Call.
Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Transamerica Capital Growth Fund into the 'Danger Zone,' noting that the fund is buying the most high-risk, dangerous securities in its asset category. The Transamerica fund has been near the top of the charts in four of the last seven calendar years, but it also has been near the very bottom in the other three of those years; Guske said the holdings in the fund are part of the symptoms that lead to the feast-or-famine performance. Also on the show, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com talks about Valentine's Day spending habits, Nick DiUlio of InsuranceQuotes.com discusses couples' saving money on insurance, David Stein discusses 'Money for the Rest of Us' and Chuck answers a listener question about the ways he is keeping the change this year.
Stephen Yacktman, chief investment officer at the Yacktman Funds, says in the Market Call that while the value investment style has lagged growth in recent years, that does not mean investors haven't been able to generate reasonable relative returns that live up to appropriate expectations. He did note that managers may have to look further afield to find some of those bargains and values, and noted that he is looking abroad more now as pricing abroad is more likely to meet his criteria given that domestic markets are at all-time highs. Also on the show, John Yesford of High Income Opportunities talks return of capital in The NAVigator, author Randy Charles Epping discusses 'The New World Economy,' and Kevin Davey of KJ Trading Systems gives his technical take on the market.
In the face of coronavirus, the election cycle and other volatility-generating events, Tom Lydon of ETFtrends.com made a hedge-like defensive ‘anti-market’ fund his pick for ‘ETF of the Week.’ Also on the show, author Richard Davies discusses ‘Extreme Economies,’ John Boroff of Fidelity talks about retirement preparedness, and Scott Klimo of Saturna Capital covers stocks in the Market Call.
Jimmy Hausberg, managing partner at The Hausberg Group in Beverly Hills, Calif., said during Collective Wisdom from HighTower Advisors that headlines like the coronavirus outbreak or even news of the presidential cycle shouldn't be ignored, but he noted that investors should use those events as a chance to review their portfolio rather than trying to capture short-term profits in ways that can derail long-term strategy. Also on the show, Carl Kaufman of the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund gives his outlook on global central banks and interest rates, Geoffrey Brown of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors discusses the state of financial planning, and Mike Larson of Weiss Ratings discusses his 'safe money' approach to stocks in the Market Call.
Technical analyst Michael Sincere explains that the coronavirus crisis may not be a market event, but it has unleashed danger signs and triggered a weakening of the stock market that could put an end to the long-running bull market. He was clear to avoid calling for a bear market, but he said he expects a significant increase in volatility and sideways market action which will make for a 'difficult market to navigate for most people.' Also on the show, Anastasia Nesvetailova, co-author of 'Sabotage: The Hidden Nature of Finance' talks about the underlying instability of global markets, Ted Rossman discusses the recent Bankrate.com study showing that many consumers aren't getting nearly as much cash back on cash-back cards as they could, and Janet Brown of No-Load FundX talks mutual funds in the Market Call.
Veteran money manager Sam Stewart, partner at Seven Canyons Advisors, said that while the market is at record highs, valuations are bifurcated to where the popular names like the FANG stocks and many technology names are too expensive, but that other names have become attractive because they are growing at a time when the economy is slowing. Also on the show, John Kiernan of WalletHub.com talks about how many consumers fear maxing out credit cards, David Trainer of New Constructs pus another pre-IPO stock in the 'Danger Zone,' and Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, does some pairs trading in the Market Call.
On a day with two Big Interview segments with top-flight market strategists, listeners may get a sense that the stock market has gotten ahead of itself with a strong January and that the rest of the year is likely to be more frustrating, volatile and sideways. But Reed Murphy of Calamos Wealth Management suggests that investors who want to get more from the market will want to step up their international investments, while Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital Management is much less optimistic about the potential of foreign investments to deliver superior returns. Also on the show, Nicholas Shaxon discusses his book on how global finance is making us all poorer, and Christian Munafo of SP Investment Management discusses one of the market's most unusual and different closed-end funds.
Giorgio Caputo, senior portfolio manager at J.O. Hambro, coins the term 'Woo Flu Wobble' to discuss this week's heightened volatility spurred by news about coronavirus. He expects the news to pass without damaging market prospects, but he notes that markets will remain volatile through the end of the year and cautions that 'This isn't your grandparents' volatility.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a hot fund that is part technology, part-commodity his 'ETF of the Week,' Jeff Gurian of Gametime discusses the high, unyielding and slightly surprising trends in Super Bowl ticket prices, and C.T. Fitzpatrick of Vulcan Value Partners talks value investing in the Market Call.
Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that investors were looking for reasons for the market to retreat, and found it this week in coronavirus, but could find it further in missed earnings or other headlines. Those perceived dangers may slow the market's uptrend, but they won't make market conditions move from benign to dangerous on the long term. Also on the show, Jake Falcon of HighTower Advisors warns of the dangers of being sucked into news-driven stocks, like those that could profit from coronavirus or fromrecent tensions in the Middle East, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com talks about how many consumers ignored warnings and took out high-rate retail-store credit cards during the holiday season, and Ben Cook of Hennessy BP Energy and Hennessy BP Midstream talks energy stocks in the Market Call.
D.R. Barton Jr. of StraightUpProfits.com says that the market is likely to over-react this week to news about the corona virus and corporate earnings -- with nearly half of the Dow industrial stocks reporting earnings -- and he notes that the frothy should create a buying opportunity for investors, although they should be patient to let the downturn play out before buying in fully. That sentiment was seconded by J.J. Kinahan of T.D. Ameritrade, who notes in the Big Interview that most experts are expecting single-digit gains for the stock market in 2020, and that he mostly agrees with those expectations, except that the market's strong January means that the second half of the year is likely to be choppy, volatile and mostly sideways. Also on the show, Greg McBride of BankRate.com talks about Americans' emergency savings, and then Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds covers growth stocks in the Market Call.
Kevin Mahn of Hennion and Walsh said everything is in place for the stock market to have a good year in 2020, but that what looks good will feel very different than the 30+ percent gain of a year ago. Mahn said he expects the market to gain roughly 9 percent ni the first half of the year, before flattening out and offering volatility with little direction through the election and into 2021. Also on the show, Leonard Wright discusses the AICPA Personal Financial Satisfaction Index and how much happier investors are now than they were a decade ago, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts an overblown stock into the Danger Zone, and Matt King of King Wealth Advisors talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group and an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, talks about the current economy in glowing terms and says he sees strength continuing without interruption or a recession for the foreseeable future, noting that even as economic growth slows, he can see a strong rebound on the horizon for 2023. Thus, while there are potential storm clouds, he doesn't see them lasting for long if they hit home at all. Also on the show, Mitch Reiner of Capital Investment Advisors talks about income investing in The NAVigator, Tom Lydon makes a brand new specialty fund his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com talks about who is affected by bank fees and how much they're paying, and Zach Johnson of Stack Financial Management covers the market's technical outlook.
Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist at The Oxford Club, says that investors searching for yield need to be careful about not chasing payouts into bad stocks and tough securities, and yet notes that tactical investors can find some values with reasonable payouts for the long term. Also on the show, Chuck answers an audience question about portfolio construction, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about what people are using their credit cards to buy, and Michael Ball of Weatherstone Capital Management talks tactical ETF investing in the Market Call.
Behavioral finance expert Meir Statman, a professor at Santa Clara University, said that investors have become smarter about investing -- and have settled for capturing market returns rather than trying to beat the market -- and that staying smart requires shrugging off whatever the market dishes up and letting 'doing nothing' be a solid strategy for not being poor and hopefully for reaching a goal of being rich. Also on the show, Morgen Henderson of Choice Mutual discusses how finances are affecting people's final-resting choices, we revisit a recent discussion about risk with Adam Thurgood of HighTower Advisors, and Yuri Lobynstev of Cindicator Capital talks stocks, earnings and trading in the Market Call.
John Thompson, chief investment officer at Vilas Capital Management, said in the Market Call that he is expecting a huge reversion to the mean coming for value stocks, which is a big change because value 'has lagged the market almost every year since 2005.' Thompson said investors who have been patient with value stocks as they have lagged are likely to get paid off for their patience in the year ahead. Also on the show, Joe Keefe, head of the Pax World Funds talks about social investing in current markets, David Trainer of New Constructs reviews his best 'Danger Zone' selections from 2019, and Amanda Dixon from BankRate.com discusses her site's latest survey.
Long-time Wall Street observer Marc Chaikin of Chaikin Analytics says the stock market is entering what he calls 'blue-sky territory,' a point near the end of a bull market with no signs of recession on the horizon and no resistance to stop a run and make investors unhappy. While it won't last forever, Chaikin says investors can profit by shifting away from defensive stocks, noting that technology, health care and financials are the places to be this year. Also on the show, Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios says the market's technicals mostly continue to support the ongoing uptrend, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors answers audience questions in The NAVigator, and Thomas Kirchner of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund talks about companies going through mergers in the Market Call.
Abhay Deshpande, chief investment officer at Centerstone Investors, says that the market and economy are set up for Europe to provide better returns than America, but he notes that the conditions for a major decline in the U.S. don't exist. Moreover, economic advancements make it less likely that investors will see a shocking, massive downturn in the future. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a unique energy fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Chris Gatz of CreditWise talks about the decade resolutions consumers made at the end of 2019, and Chuck discusses the resolution of his recent complaint with Firestone Auto Centers and its financing arm.
Scott Colyer of Advisors Asset Management says that he would continue to avoid fighting with the Fed -- and with foreign central bankers -- which means he believes there will be plenty of opportunities for staying invested and growing a portfolio in 2020, although investors will want to take advantages of sector rotation that will see improved returns from value stocks, a bounce-back among energy companies and a 'generational opportunity' in commodities. Also on the show, Cory Bittner from HighTower Advisors talks about forecasts and how they impact advisory relationships, Terry Jones discusses the latest Investor's Business Daily poll on investor confidence levels, and Jane Edmonson of EQM Indexes discusses brand-name investments in the Market Call.
The best-selling personal-finance author of all time, Robert Kiyosaki of 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' fame, visits Money Life to discuss his new book out today, 'Who Stole My Pension.' Kiyosaki discusses why he wouldn't invest in stocks, mutual funds or ETFs right now, though he never discloses what he would buy other than 'private investments.' Also on the show, two chats about technical analysis, first with Avi Gilburt of Elliott Wave Trader, who notes that the market is getting into a 'topping region' where he expects a modest pullback. If the market can hold at support levels, he sees green lights for at least half a year, noting he'd be articularly bullish on small-cap stocks. Meanwhile, Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com is also bullish and says he expects to ride the current trends for at least the first half of the new year. Finally, Ted Rossman of CreditCards,cmo discusses the results of his site's most recent consumer poll.
Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of The Big Picture blog makes his first visit to Money Life and talks about the things he likes and dislikes the most about personal finance and investing today, discusses the evolution of index funds and how that invites improper use of them, and his outlook on forecasting and which predictions are worth listening to. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits his Danger Zone picks frmo 2019 and talks about three that didn't work out so well, and Stephen McKee of the No-Load Mutual Fund Selections and Timing newsletter talks momentum-driven mutual fund investing in the Market Cal
It's a day of looking at expectations and then deconstructing them as Chuck chats with Deb Clarke, global head of investment research at Mercer, about the firm's 2020 outlook -- which includes slower growth globally, better opportunities worldwide than in America and more -- and discusses technical analysis with Martin Pring of Pring Research who sees signs suggesting that any troubles ahead in the near term will be buying and trading opportunities because real market troubles appear unlikely in the year ahead. Christian Pittard of Aberdeen Asset Management talks about changes in structure and more that are helping make the closed-end fund market more attractive, before Seth Masters -- best known for a correct market forecast he made with Bernstein Private Wealth Management in 2012 -- looks at the factors and thinking that renders most forecasts weak and meaningless.
Alan Levenson, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price, says that headline events like the impeachment and the conflict in Iran are not going to have much economic impact, but he noted that slowing growth, tighter employment conditions and more will contribute to slower growth during the first half of the year and that they ultimately will lead to a shallow recession down the line, somewhere after 2020. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com discusses investing in China amid the current trade concerns, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub talks about how many Americans overspent their budgets during the holiday season, and Chuck answers a question from an audience member.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RCM, notes that tensions in the Middle East and how they affect the oil industry and the economy are worth watching, but says that the economy is different from the oil tensions of the 1970s, and is better prepared to deal with the turmoil than in the past. He expects moderate economic growth in 2020, although he notes that Boeing is the most important manufacturing company to the economy and that its recent problems will shave significant growth off the economy in the short term. Also on the show, Russel Kinnel of Morningstar discusses the latest 'Mind the Gap' study showing that investors are doing better relative to the performance of their funds than in the past, Howard Silverblatt discusses dividend results for the Standard and Poor's 500 in 2019, and we revisit a recent chat with David Bahnsen of HighTower Advisors on the intersection of politics and personal finance.
Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen, releases his annual list of 10 forecasts for the coming year, noting that he expects economic growth to continue but that it won't be enough to keep stocks humming along. He expects domestic markets to struggle to reach single-digit gains, he prefers the outlook for international stocks, and he believes President Trump will win re-election among his expectations for 2020. Also on the show, two other interviews about expectations, with David Goodsell of Natixis Investment Managers discussing his firm's recent survey of institutional investors about their outlook for the year ahead, plus Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com gives his forecast for rate levels in the coming year. All that, plus Patrick Healey of Caliber Financial Partners talking stocks in the Market Call.
Bob Doll chief equity strategist at Nuveen will release his 10 forecasts for the New Year on Tuesday, but first he stops by Money Life to talk with Chuck about his calls from last year and how they turned out in 2019. Meanwhile, Paul Golden of the National Endowment for Financial Education discusses the New Year's resolutions that investors made fort 2020, and Chuck answers an audience question, kind of, in telling us precisely why he won't make a definitive forecast for the stock market in the year ahead. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Jim O'Shaughnessy of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management.
Will in Philadelphia writes Chuck asking for help setting real, meaningful retirement-savings targets as he tries to make sure his New Year's goals and resolutions will make real progress toward a secure future, and Chuck describes four ways to measure retirement preparedness. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses three decades of research on the industry and what it tells him to expect for the future, and we revisit a recent, extended chat with Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates.
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that the Standard and Poor's 500 closed 2019 so strongly that it nearly eclipsed his firm's forecast for where it would be in 2020, squarely in the middle of the 3,200 to 3,300 forecast range. Wren warned that the investment consensus is more optimistic than he and Wells Fargo are, but is expectation is for a relatively flat year with some heightened volatility as the market sorts out pressures from interest rates, politics and more. Also ont he show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a big, classic index fund his 'ETF of the Week," Chuck throws dirt on some funds that died in 2019, and we revisit a recent chat with David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors.
Brad Lamensdorf, editor of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF, said that market sentiment is completely reversed from a year ago and has risen to dangerous levels where investors are likely to be disappointed in the new year. He expects at least 'extreme volatility' for 2020, likely paired with a 'cleansing pullback' that he said was necessary before the market could move up from its current record levels. Also on the show, Brian Graff of the American Retirement Association discusses the SECURE ACT that goes into law on New Year's Day, the gang from HighTower Advisors revisits questions to ask planners and counselors at the start of the year, and Chuck talks about goal setting for the new year and the next decade.
Chuck -- who spent more than a decade as a guest commentator on Nightly Business Report -- talks about the longest-running business television show, which ran for the final time last Friday, and also finally reveals just what happened when he took his car in for repairs -- and subsequently tried to pay for those repairs and more on the retailer's credit card -- that has had him upset for weeks. We also revisit a recent chat with Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research.
Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist for Ned Davis Research, says that the economic, earnings, Federal Reserve and presidential cycles will be the driving and determining forces to the kind of year 2020 can be and on what happens post-election. For now, those cycles continue to favor growth, but Clissold warns of changes that could be ahead down the line. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance talks about how closed-end funds went from scaring investors a year ago to posting one of their best years in history and discloses what he sees coming in the year ahead, Ande Frazier of myWorth talks about setting new-decade resolutions makes sense this year, and we revisit a recent chat with Mary Ellen Stanek, president of the Baird Funds.
Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that while he is optimistic for the new year, he is worried about how much the economy may accelerate, noting that if it picks up speed in the second half of 2020 it will create stress come 2021. It's an environment that he says is good for politics -- which is why he's worried about it during a presidential election year -- but not great for long-term investors who will feel the aftermath. Also on the show, David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors says investors should expect single-digit returns in 2020 with performance charts that don't look anything like what they have seen in 2019. Danielle Shay of SimplerTrading covers the market's technical side between those two Big Interviews and we revisit a recent ETF of the Week chat with Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com.
Legendary bond fund manager Dan Fuss of Loomis Sayles Bond Fund turns his attention to the year ahead in the second part of his chat with Chuck Jaffe, and he believes the fixed-income market will be benign in 2020, not quite as buoyant as the current year, and he talks about how the Federal Reserve's changing policies about how they disclose information has made the bond market significantly more stable. Also on the show, Matt Harris of HighTower Wealth Management talks technical analysis and how he sees the market showing signs that growth is coming in the new year, Sarah Asebedo of Texas Tech University chats about her research showing that personality traits affect retirement spending, and Eric Marshall of the Hodges Funds covers stocks in the Market Call.
Dan Fuss, legendary long-time manager of the Loomis Sayles Bond Fund, joins Chuck for the first of a two-day Big Interview that starts by looking at what happened to make the bond market remarkably strong during 2019 in the face of rate uncertainty and much more. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts two stocks into the Danger Zone, Chuck answers a question about year-end portfolio moves and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds discusses insider buying and selling as a worthwhile buy-sell signal for stocks in the Market Call.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that while returns may slow down from the high and unexpected levels achieved in 2019, he expects the domestic stock market to have another positive run in the New Year, even if it is muted by recent standards. Thomas said investors need to be picky and selective in investing in developed Europe and emerging markets, where some great bargains could be hidden among bigger trends that have the potential to drag down the markets as a whole. Also on the show, Jeff Lipton of Oppenheimer and Co. talks the municipal-bond market and its spectacular results in 2019, Russell Robinson of Capital Institutional Services talks about trading illiquid and lesser-known closed-end funds and how the market remains stable and solvent, and Leo Leydon of Financial Focyus Advisory Services gives his technical outlook for 2020, and it's a good one.
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Corp., says that the fact that interest rates are likely stuck at current low levels is likely to reduce any impetus for homeowners to consider moving, which will slow down the economy, even with housing affordability at historically low levels despite an inventory shortage created in part by established homeowners opting to stay put. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a retailing fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses holiday tipping practices, and Chris Retzler, portfolio manager of the red-hot Needham Small Cap Growth Fund -- currently up more than 50 percent this year -- discusses his portfolio and the broader market in the Market Call.
Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer for VantagePoint Investment Advisors, says that despite the headline risks and concerns, he believes the stock market is poised to deliver another double-digit gain in the new year, noting that the economic underpinnings are solid and momentum remains strong. Also on the show, Nick DiUlio of insuranceQuotes.com discusses holiday hazards from porch pirates to winter driving, we revisit a chat with Steve Tresnan and Jeremiah Reithmiller of HighTower Advisors discussing how fixed income can properly hedge stocks these days, and Matt Hanna of Summit Global Investments talks low-volatility investing in the Market Call.
Rob Arnott, founding chairman at Research Affiliates, says in a wide-ranging interview that value investing not only isn't dead, but he notes that value stocks currently trade at one-eighth the price of growth stocks, the second-lowest level ever and a strong indicator that bargain stocks are due for a resurgence if investors can remain patient with them. O'Shaughnessy -- the author of 'What Works on Wall Street' and the head of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management -- talks about factor investing, and how investors can set limits on their portfolios without letting emotions ruin their portfolios and returns. Also on the show, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses the surprisingly large percentage of Americans who cried over their finances and money in 2019.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, discusses current market valuation risks and how his firm is responding to the market's mixed signals, including the inverted yield curve signal the market flashed months ago, increases in volatility and uncertainty and more. He also discusses research based on fishing charts and solar-lunar calendars showing that investors do better -- and should trade more -- at times with a full moon. Also on the show, John Boroff of Fidelity Investments discusses the firm's annual study on New Year's resolutions, Chuck answers an audience question about portfolio rebalancing, and David Trainer puts an equity fund with a history of topping the performance charts every few years into the Danger Zone.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, expects the market to stay strong in 2020 noting that be believes politicians can go beyond settling the trade dispute with China to give stocks a boost. Stovall says he would not be surprised to see tax cut measures -- proposed if not enacted -- that get investors excited that the bull market can keep running into 2021 or 2022. Also on the show, Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel talks optimistically about the market's technicals, Jeremy Goff of Tortoise Advisors discusses interval funds and the benefits of using them as opposed to traditional closed-end fund investments, and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund talks value investing in the Market Call.
Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says that the biggest winners for the next decade on the Standard and Poor's 500 Index may not even be big enough to be on the banchmark now. In a recent study of the last decade, Rotblut found that the big winners were not necessarily the names anyone might have expected to be big gainers 10 years ago. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a biotech and pharmaceutical fund his ETF of the Week, Alia Dudum of Lending Club talks about how many people engage in 'YOLO spending' because 'you only live once' but wind up paying off those purchases for years. Also, we rebroadcast a recent chat with Alan Gayle of Via Nova Investment Management.
Mary Ellen Stanek of Baird Funds notes that in the 11th year of an economic expansion, investors should be cautious, but she says the excesses that typically come late in an economic cycle are not there, so investors should keep their seatbelts on, should make sure they are being paid to take on risk and are otherwise moving forward cautiously into 2020 and beyond. Also on the show, Chuck chats with David Molnar from HighTower San Diego about how investors should properly evaluate an adviser's performance, discusses the ways in which President Trump's tweets have been moving the market with Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate, and we revisit a recent Market Call chat with Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments.
Brian Nick, chief investment officer at Nuveen, says that the stock market enters the next decade with high valuations and other conditions that do not seup up well for great investment returns, and he warns investors that they may need to move away from the tradition 60-40 stocks-to-bonds allocation in favor of something that carries more alternatives in order to continue to deliver anything close to recent results. But Nick's cautious notes are a contrast to comments from Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors, a renowned technical analyst who said there are "no telltale signs of a serious market top" currently on the horizon, and who suggested that dips will remain buying opportunities for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, Lior Rachmany of Dumbo Moving and Storage discusses the financial benefits of moving during the winter, and Odysseas Papadimitrou of WalletHub chats about deferred interest on retail cards and how he believes the practice should be outlawed.
Michael Dowdall, investment strategist for BMO Global Asset Management, says the trade war between the United Stateas and China will be the over-arching headline for the foreseeable future, and while he expects minor deals to be announced he believes a full resolution of tensions will be elusive in 2020. Despite that, he believes the American consumer will continue to drive the market higher, and that the U.S. economy will continue to lead the world, though he expects a bounce-back from a number of countries that mostly suffered through 2019. Also on the show, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses women and their retirement preparedness, Davd Trainer talks about technology companies and puts a troubled tech stock in the Danger Zone, and Chuck discusses how being a bit of a humbug for the holidays and talking moderation with family memebrs could be a true gift of the season.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that while there are some warning signs clearly visible -- and wildcards like trade wars and Brexit that could cause further deterioration -- investors should stay fully invested for as long as the economy continues showing growth and companies keep on reporting profits. He suggests that investors side with stocks that have 'high-quality characteristics' as a way to hedge against a weakening market. Also on the show, John Kosar of Asbury Research gave a technical outlook that wasn't nearly as positive, noting that the market is overextended and that if the major indexes break through support levels, investors might want to take better control of their risks. Axel Merk of the Merk Funds and the ASA Gold and Precious Metals closed-end fund discusses the difference for investors between using traditional funds and the closed-end structure for exposure to precious metals, and George Young of the Villere Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
Tom Lydon, editor at ETFTrends.com, made the PIMCO Low Duration Active ETF -- ticker symbol LDUR -- his 'ETF of the Week,' noting that the low-duration exchange-traded fund not only mitigates risk but can increase returns from money-market funds by as much as one full point, a significant difference in a time when money mostly parked on the sidelines isn't delivering much return. Also on the show, Jason Reposa of MyBankTracker.com talks about the financial mistakes savers and investors admit to making around the holidays, Rob Lutts of Cabot Wealth Management talks stocks in the Market Call, and we revisit a recent interview with Frank Holmes of US Global Investors.
Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments, says that while the market and economy are giving off generally positive signs of strength, the numbers this time may be hiding some issues that could shorten the current business cycle and dampen returns. Also on the show, Washington Post columnist Allan Sloan talks about the one tax move he thinks anyone in their 70s should do to minimize what they owe Uncle Sam, Adam Thurgood of HighTower Advisors discusses how to match risk tolerance and today's positive investment sentiment with the market's realities for the future, and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com talks about his site's latest survey of how consumers misbehave with credit cards.
Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark, said that investors are too concerned with current events and the upcoming election when they should be focus instead on the earnings power of big companies, which he said will continue to drive the market for the foreseeable future. Thomas said that while investors have reasons for their personal concerns around news, they should tune out the noise to focus on the strong earnings picture. Similarly, two very different technical analysts -- Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors and Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis -- came to similar conclusions, namely that the market could be headed for a technical blow-out but both suggested that the warning signs are still hard to see and said they would wait until they see a downturn as imminent before changing their investment strategy to something more defensive. Finally, Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services and the DRIP Investor talked stocks in the Market Call.
Today's show covers a lot of ground, from Matt Zajechowski of Digital Third Coast talking about a survey on package thefts and giving out tips for foiling box bandits this holiday season, to Ben Hunt of EpsilonTheory.com talking about his big concerns for the markets that have been mostly overlooked by observers and experts, on to international value investing in the Market Call with guest David Marcus from the Evermore Global Value Fund talking about how the market's run to record highs hasn't curtailed his supply of companies that have been bloodied and bruised by business and that look like solid discount plays to him as a result of their troubles.
Chuck celebrates Black Friday with tips on the best and worst card deals and items to shop for from Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com, and talk about how to avoid the worst retail store credit card offers. There's also The NAVigator, where Jerry Raio of Arbor Lane Advisors gives his take on 2019 IPOs and the outlook for 2020, and the ETF of the Week from Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com. Also on the show, Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs Investment Management discusses the market and his expectations for how long the current rally can last.
Jim Sarni, managing principal at Payden and Rygel, says that 2020 looks to be a year of heightened volatility, centered around market flashpoints like tariff and trade wars, interest-rate concerns, the Presidential election and more, but he notes that the environment will be one where cooler heads prevail. He urges investors to stay calm, to look for investments in quality companies with dividend-oriented stocks the focus for equities and shorter-duration high-grade bonds the focus in fixed income. Also on the show, Jimmy Hausberg of HighTower Advisors discusses the lessons investors should remember from the market meltdown that started right after Thanksgiving a year ago, Dr. Steve Giannoutsos talks about the value of do-it-yourself braces and teeth aligners, and Adrian Garcia of Bankrate.com discusses holiday pressure to overspend.
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, says investors have plenty of reason to be optimistic right now, noting that the domestic and international economies are showing signs of strong demand, which should keep global markets rolling for the foreseeable future. There's more bullish praise for the market and its technical signals from Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com, who is as fully invested as he has been in many months, despite his daily worries over how Tweets and news blurbs can ruin his short-term trades. Greg McBride of Bankrate.com chats about how ill-prepared many Americans are for retirement, but how it appears that they are falling further behind rather than playing long-term, slow-speed catch-up, and Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman of Ariel Investments, talks stocks and value investing in the Market Call.
Alan Gayle, president of Via nova Investment Management, said he expects the storm clouds of trade wars and interest rate pictures to clear as the calendar hits 2020. Coupled with improvement seen in the markets of Europe, China and emerging markets, he is optimistic about results for 2020, especially for international investments. Gayle's comments were a bit more hopeful -- especially about returns and global investing -- than those of David Jilek, chief investment strategist of Gateway Investment Advisors, who expects muted returns and heightened volatility from stocks and bonds through 2020. Also on the show, Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate discusses the high costs of commuting, especially in certain cities, and David trainer of New Constructs puts Zynga in the Danger Zone.
Karl Mills, president of Jurika, Mills and Kiefer, said that investors have to look beyond headlines, current events and present-day nervousness to stay focused on long-term goals, and should be considering long-term trends, needs and risk tolerance rather than today's news and the weekly market action when putting together an asset allocation. Also on the show, Nicholas Marshi, editor of the BDC Reporter, discusses the state of business-development companies through the third-quarter earnings period, Chuck answers a question about store and retail credit cards, and John Buckingham of the Prudent Speculator newsletter brings his dedicated value investing style back to the Market Call after a long absence.
Jeff Davis, chief investment officer at LMCG Investments, says that while investors have been frustrated by a decade of international investments lagging far behind the United States, he thinks giving up on international investing is a mistake, particularly now that investors are paying a premium on domestic stocks and can get relative bargains around the world. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com has the ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a question about investing in artificial-intelligence stocks, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks about growth stocks in the Market Call.
Bill Stone, chief investment officer, Avalon Investment and Advisory, said he believes investors have seen the worst of global economic numbers and that with better data ahead, plus strong investor sentiment and record amounts of cash on the sideline ready to be invested, there is a strong chance for another market rally in 2020. That said, he believes that the long lagging cycle for value stocks could be ending, and he suggested investors might want to rebalance their value and growth portfolios to take advantage of the change. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com returns to talk about the states where people have the best and worst money habits, Jake Falcon of HighTower Advisors discusses how investors need to keep what they hear from the media in perspective, and author and money manager Mark Grimaldi discusses how to have a tax-free retirement.
Patrick O'Hare, chief market strategist at Briefing.com, said that low rates have steered a market through a time of no-earnings growth and have the market poised to keep pushing forward despite headline risks over trade concerns, impeachment, the upcoming election and more. O'Hare said he expects 2020 to not be quite as good as 2019 -- in part because some good news has been pulled forward and priced in already -- but he expects a positive outcome through the election and for the election year. Also on the show, we revisit a recent interview with Jim Welsh of smart Portfolios, Chuck talks rewards-card offers with Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com, and Charles Norton of the Vitium Global Fund (VICEX) makes his debut talking sin stocks in the Market Call.
Chuck is back from his weekend in Seattle with a bad head cold and some anger issues, especially after tuning into a program called 'Trading and Investing with Ryan and Larry,' and he shares some of the reasons why real investors should be able to ignore the ridiculous logic behind the sales pitch to become a trader. Also on the show, longtime business journalist Rob Wells discusses his new book on how some little-known trade reporters exposed the 'Keating Five' in one of the nation's largest business scandals, plus we rebroadcast a recent chat with Rob Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing.
Rob Berger, author of 'Retire Before Mom and Dad' says that while investors want to make things complicated, maintaining a simple, straightforward portfolio, relying on the power of compounding and setting aside more money than average are the real keys to long-term financial success, noting that investors need to demystify the savings process and simply recognize the long-term value of money they spend wastefully today that could truly change their lives if they considered its potential value in the future. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of the Active Investment Company Alliance tackles audience questions in The NAVigator, Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate talks about her analysis of financial literacy data, and Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors covers mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios said that with market sentiment on the rise and most observers thinking things are good, it's time to be guarded. Welsh said that the market's technicals look to him like a small rally to reach a market top before a 5 to 7 percent pullback that he does not think will scare investors. After that, he expects the market to recapture its highs, top out and then a correction early in 2020 that could shave as much as 750 points off the Standard and Poor's 500. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com has the ETF of the Week, Oliver Pursche, chief investment strategist at Bruderman Brothers Asset Management checks in from the EY Strategic Growth Conference, and James Abate of Centre Asset Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Andy Morse, senior partner at Morse, Towey and White Group in New York, says that while investors often want to leave politics out of their financial picture, it's actually earnings and public policy that drive the markets, and he gives reasons why that will drive the market -- especially as trade concerns are resolved -- even if his expectations remain modest. Also on the show, Chuck answers another audience question, author Lane Martinsen talks about holistic retirement planning, and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners overs funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Nick Raich of The Earnings Scout returned to the Market Call to discuss his unique brand of stock analysis which focuses on earnings forecasts -- rather than past results -- looking for the best changes in earnings estimates, and he noted that while his models are starting to like developed international markets over the U.S., he still likes defensive sectors like health care, consumer staples, real estate and utilities, while being concerned and nervous about industrials, communications services and energy stocks. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss selling, author Adam Minter discusses his book 'Secondhand: Travels in the New Global Garage Sale,' and Chris Gatz of CreditWise at Capital One discussed consumer stresses over debts and finances.
Jae Yoon, chief investment officer at New York Life Investment Management, said that the issues of the current trade war are not going away and will slow economic activity until they are resolved, yet he noted that they are not killing the current economic cycle, which he thinks can run for 12 to 18 months or more. Yoon said he is beginning to look at reducing allocations ahead of a cycle whose end could coincide with the presidential election, but noted that investors should not be full-on defensive just yet. Also on the show, Matt Schulz of Creditcards.com talks about retail store cards, author Stephen Martin discusses 'Messengers' and how we decide who to listen to and trust in today's society, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a stock with over-blown earnings numbers into the Danger Zone.
Craig Callahan, founder and president at the ICON Funds says that the domestic stock market -- despite being at or near record-high levels -- is actually 16 percent below its fair value, and he expects the market to gain more ground over the next year or so as it works to have stocks reach fair-value levels. Callahan adds that he believes the current bull market has a ways to go, potentially five or more years, and says he would stick with top-performing sectors like consumer-disctretionary stocks, technology and financial companies. Also on the show, legendary activist investor Phillip Goldstein from Bulldog Investors talks about the dark potential future he sees for activists in closed-end funds, Leonard Wright discusses AICPA's recent survey showing that children's allowances are up, but their savings rate on that money is alarmingly low, and Todd Rosenbluth of CFRA Research talks ETFs in the Market Call.
It's part standard show, part roadshow today, as Chuck starts with Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com with the 'ETF of the Week,' and Brent Schutte of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management in the Big Interview before airing interviews taped at Wednesday's Active Investment Company Alliance Boot Camp and Conference in New York City, covering a wide range of closed-end investing topics with Bill Meyers of Nuveen, Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial, and Eric Boughton of Matisse Capital.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at the Merk Funds, says the market is telling investors that everything is fine, and that he sees that being true, noting that investors should expect an upside surprise more than trouble over the next few months. Also on the show, Jeff Ptak of Morningstar explains changes announced Tuesday to the firm’s mutual fund analyst ratings, Steven Cress of Seeking Alpha brings a quantitative approach to the Market Call and we revisit a recent interview with Jake Falcon and Joseph Klein from Hightower Advisors.
Kirshna Memani, vice chairman of investments at Invesco, says that the market is setting up for a good year in 2020 based on three key factors, namely the recent Fed rate cuts and the central bank's indication that it won't reverse course soon, the likely resolution of international trade issues, and a re-acceleration of global economic growth. If those events happen as expected, Memani -- who believes the economy can go several more years without a recession -- said 2020 has strong potential for both domestic and international markets. Also on the show, Chris Oberbeck of Saratoga Investment Corp. discusses business-development companies, a unique type of closed-end fund investment, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com chats about the dangers of using retailers' store cards, and author Keisha Blair discusses 'Holistic Wealth' and how people can change their approach to money to reduce stress, improve their finances and be happier.
Brad Evans of the Heartland Value Plus fund says in the Big Interview that Corporate American has levered itself to levels never seen before, which leaves stocks vulnerable to being whipsawed by news events and headlines in ways investors haven't previously experienced. Also on the show, Liz Pagel of TransUnion discusses the how well -- and sometimes how poorly -- debt consolidation really works, Sam McBride of New Constructs puts a big-name stock in the Danger Zone, and Peter Tuz of Chase Investment COunsel talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
David Ellison, manager of the Hennessy Large-Cap and Small-Cap Financial funds, says we are seeing a unique decline in interest rates because cuts historically were supposed to help out financial institutions, making it easier to make loans, unload bad debts and improve margins. With rates at historic lows, however, cuts aren't really providing financial firms with any help, Ellison says, making the entire sector tougher to read. Also on the show, Richard Howe of Stock Spinoff Investing makes his debut in the Market Call, Andy Provencher of BNY Mellon Investment Management discusses how little average Americans know about fixed-income investing, and Chuck reveals the results of his 'Cash-or-Candy' Halloween.
Francesca Ortegren of Clever Real Estate discusses a recent study on the effect of paranormal activity on home prices -- no, we're not kidding -- which found that people are much more concerned about the potential for crime than they are about being haunted by ghosts, with people who believe in the supernatural more likely to pay up to buy a house they've been told is haunted. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends makes a small-cap dividend fund his pick for ETF of the Week, Rick Redding of the Index Industry Association talks about why the number of indexes shrank by roughly 20 percent in the last year, and Jason Herried of Johnson Financial Group talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
David Bahnsen of HighTower Advisor's Bahnsen Group chats about the intersection of politics and personal finance, noting that investments are inherently political and that investors can create problems when they choose to invest based more on their political leanings than on a dispassionate view of how current events can and will impact the market. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com talks about their survey about whether Americans feel they are better off financially since the last presidential election, Jon Brodsky of Finder US talks about how Americans' savings habits compare with the rest of the world, and Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund discusses absolute-value investing in the Market Call.
Avi Gilburt, founder of Elliott Wave Trader, said that while the Standard and Poor's 500 hit new record highs on Monday -- closing at roughly 3,040 and finally breaking out of a trading range that has lasted for most of the year -- he believes the market is still in the middle of a larger correction, one that will take it back down to support levels around 2,820 before there is a real rally to start off 2020. Gilburt suggested that instead of being cheered by the new highs, investors should expect 'a lot of whipsaw.' Also on the show, Leonard Wright discusses the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants' most recent Personal Satisfaction Index, author and financial adviser Jeff Poole discusses the transition from work to retirement, and Tim Melvin of the Heatseeker newsletter and MaxWealth.com cov ers stocks in the Market Call.
David Trainer, president of Nw Constructs, says that Line PLC has numbers so misleading tat if the omcpany were to stop growing, shares would be worth about 90 percent less than their current level. Even with growth, Trainer gave reasons why the company could be headed for trouble. Also on teh show, Frank Nothfaft of the National Association for Business Economics, a rebroadcast of a recent chat with Mona Mahajan of Allianz Global Investors, and the Market Call with Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors.
Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel Fixed Income, says near the end of her Big Interview chat with Chuck that she sees sufficient economic slowdown ahead for the economy to enter a recession during the first half of 2020, noting that a recession doesn't have to be deep, hard and arduous but rather that it can represent a slowdown which she believes will be reversed in short order. Also on the show, Piers Currie of Warhorse Partners discusses the evolution of closed-end funds frmo their origins in England, Michael Sincere talks technical analysis and how current conditions have him betting in both directions against this market, and Nick McCullum of Sure Dividend covers his dividend-investment strategy talking stocks in the Market Call.
Chuck covers a lot of ground, literally and figuratively, in today's show, with Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com making a marijuana offering his ETF of the Week, talking with Carter Malloy of Acre Trader, a platform that lets individual investors do high-yield investing by buying directly into farmland, and talking mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call with Kevin Miller of the E-Valuator Funds. Plus, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com returns for the second time this week to talk about a survey, this time on how people plan to pay for their holiday travels.
Shawn Cruz, manager of trading strategy for TD Ameritrade, said that the market is fighting conflicting trends but noted that any sort of meaningful improvements in the trade war with China would likely help stocks break through to new highs, as he believes the market is trying hard to continue climbing. Also on the show, Mike PeQueen of HighTower Advisors said he believes that solid fundamentals will allow the market to climb the proverbial 'wall of worry' without suffering through a recession until at least 2021. Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses his site's most recent survey of fees and charges levied by banks, and Francisco Bido of Cognios Large Cap Growth fund makes his debut in the Market Call.
Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, said that investors and the stock market are being pulled in good and bad directions by an 'economic and emotional tug-of-war caused by the trade war with China, changes in interest-rate policies, the news cycle and more. He pointed out that the market has positive signs -- like market breadth at near highs -- and negative signals, like the struggles in transportation and small-cap stocks. He is remaining defensive, but looking for opportunities. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the number of Americans who earn, but then lose, credit-card rewards, we rebroadcast a recent chat with Tom Stringfellow of Frost Investment Advisors, and Eric Ross of Cascend Securities makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, noted that the market's technicals are strong enough that the Almanac issued a buying signal on Oct. 11, expecting 2019 to have the traditional strong end to the year rather than repeating the significant decline investors lived through a year ago. Hirsch also talked about the impact elections have on the market and more. Also on the show, Geoffrey Brown of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors discusses how many people wish they could have a financial do-over, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts the worst fund in the worst-performing investment category in the Danger Zone, and Rich Moroney of the Dow Theory Forecast and Upside newsletters talks stocks in the Market Call.
Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist for Allianz Global Investors, says that while there are legitimate concerns about slowing global economic growth and headline risks from trade wars to impeachment and more, the underlying numbers show signs of re-emergent growth, the kind of 'green shoots' that could carry the long-running bull market to new heights next year if they're fostered and allowed to grow. Also on the show, Ken Berman of Gorilla Trades is equally bullish -- if not more so -- in discussing the stock market's technical side of things, Joshua Deringer of Drinker, Biddle and Reath explains the inner workings of 'interval funds' -- a type of closed-end fund that is growing in popularity -- in The NAVigator, and Darren Kottle of Catalyst Multi-Strategy Fund talks stocks and tactical investing in the Market Call.
College professor Emily Gallagher discusses her recent research looking at the amount of emergency savings that appears sufficient to allow individuals to overcome standard emergencies and avoid falling into significant financial distress, disclosing just how much to keep on hand. Also, Chuck talks with Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com about a housing fund, covers the best mortgage lenders with Gina Pogol of HSH.com, and talks stocks in the Market Call with Leon Wilfan of Lahardan Financial.
Matt Harris, head of investment strategy at HighTower Wealth Management, says that while people are nervous about economic, market and political headlines, that's not showing up in how they act as measured by technical analysis. Harris says that indicators like breadth, the spread of companies rising and falling and more are not typical of a market top or indicating a price drop over the next few months. Also on the show, Chuck talks with author Devon Powers about the business of forecasting the future, discusses Halloween spending with Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com, and revisits his recent chat with Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller.
Lawrence McMillan, head of McMillan Analysis, said that the current range-bound market has indicators that can work for short-term trades, but nothing that really allows him to look out more than a few weeks. He is looking for the market to break through resistance at 2,993 on the Standard and Poor's 500 and hold beyond that level, but noted that if a rally falls short, the market could see a double- or triple-top, which is a sign of trouble ahead. Also on the show, Sylvia Jablonski of Direxion Investments says there is still growth left in the market and she highlights good ideas for trading in a sideways market, Mike Brown of Lendedu highlights the huge amount newlyweds paid to hold their wedding, and we revisit a recent Market Call with Ed Shill of QCI Asset Management.
Aaron Glantz, author of the new book 'Homewreckers: How a Gang of Wall Street Kingpins, Hedge Fund Magnates, Crooked Banks, and Vulture Capitalists Suckered Millions Out of Their Homes and Demolished the American Dream," discusses how a story looking at the financial crisis of 2008 led to massive profits for several leading players,including members of the current administration in Washington. Also, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies talks about why employers don't believe their workers are ready for retirement, David Trainer of New Constructs talks about the danger of believing ordinary earnings reports and Bill Matson of Oyster River Financial covers data-driven investing in the Market Call.
John Blank, chief equity strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, gives a compelling look at what he believes are key numbers to draw the conclusion that investors won't have to worry about a recession in the United States for at least a year and more likely into 2021 and beyond. With little to no growth around the world right now, Blank suggests that investors -- especially those with shorter time horizons -- focus more on domestic stocks because despite a slowing economy the best growth opportunities remain here. Also ont he show, Patrick Shaddow of S-Network Global Indexes talks about ETFs made up entirely of closed-end funds, Toni Turner of Trendstar Trading Group discusses the market's potential to reach a triple top, which is a technical indicator of trouble ahead, and Manny Weintraub of Integre Asset Management covers growth-at-a-reasonable price stocks in the Market Call.
Bernie Horn, portfolio manager at Polaris Global Value, says that while the U.S. stocks have sharply outperformed international stocks since the financial crisis of 2008, the situation has now gotten to where foreign valuations are increasingly attractive, and he noted that if you can find the right valuations in businesses that are able to grow cash-flow over time, the stock should ultimately pay off no matter where in the world it is based. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an actively managed municipal bond fund his ETF of the Week, Pat Rowan of TIAA discusses Americans' confidence in retirement, and Craig Curlop of biggerpockets.com talks about his new book on 'house-hacking,' a strategy where you buy multi-unit properties, live in one unit and rent the others, uing the rent to pay your mortgage and effectively letting you live without having to make a monthly housing payment of your own.
Chuck talks about the twist he is putting in place for his annual 'trade or treat' Halloween tradition that lets children choose between money and candy while learning about risk, return, rewards and more every year. He's hoping you will come up with your own twist on cash or candy this year. Also, Ray Baraldi and Richard Flahive of HighTower Advisors discuss real assets' role in a portfolio during volatile times, Terry Jones of Investor's Business Daily covers the latest IBD Investor Optimism Index and Trip Miller of Gullane Capital Partners covers value investing in the Market Call.
Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller joins Chuck to discuss his new book on 'narrative economics' and notes that the current narratives generating viral stories and affecting the economy are the stories about trade and tariff wars and the future of free trade with China. Also on the show, Eleanor Laise of Kiplinger's Personal Finance discusses the importance of shopping around during the open enrollment period to see if you should change Medicare Plans, and Leah Bennett of Westwood Wealth Management talks quality socks in the #MoneyLifeMarketCall.
Tom Stringfellow, chief investment officer at Frost Investment Advisors, says that the current mix of good and bad news -- a 50-year-low in unemployment,impeachment headlines, interest rates and much more -- has confused investors and is pushing them some of them to seek shelter, making a mistake of not being fully invested at a time when the market continues going up despite all of the conflicting data and information. Also on the show, Greg Daco of Oxford Economics and the National Association for Business Economics, talks about the economist survey released today which shows that leading financial minds feel that recession isn't likely until late 2020 or beyond, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a pot stock in the Danger Zone, and Ben Johnson, director of ETF research, covers exchange-traded funds in the market Call.
Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, said that while news headlines and market volatility might give investors pause for the near term, long-range investors should not be concerned about the market's technicals, and should view downturns cautiously as buying opportunities. He noted that when the market is range-bound -- as it has been -- but generally staying near the top level of the range, that typically bodes well going forward. Also on teh show, Kimberly Flynn of XA Investments talks about alternative investments available in closed-end funds in The NAVigator, Pat keon of Lipper at Refinitiv discusses why investors flooded junk-bond funds with money in recent weeks, and Brian Gahsman of the AlphaCentric Robotics and Automation fund has the Market Call.
Richard Sapertein, chief investment officer, Treasury Partners, gives a surprising take on how bond investors -- facing negative interest rates on international treasury securities and falling interest rates at home -- should actually extend maturities on the fixed-income instruments they are using, even though that could put them on the short end of the inverted yield curve. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com says value is coming back into vogue with his pick for the 'ETF of the Week,' Rich Polimeni of the College Savings Foundation discusses about how parents may know the value of saving for college but still are over-reliant on debt, and Oliver Pursche, chief market strategist at Bruderman Asset Management talks growth at a reasonable price in the Market Call.
George Schultze of Schultze Asset Management says in the Market Call that investors should not be afraid of bankruptcy and other troubling corporate situations because they are running away from opportunities rather than seizing on them. Also on the show, Chris Mamula, a leader in the "Financial Independence" realm talks about the new book he helped to write, 'Choose FI: Your Blueprint to Financial Success," plus Michael Sheldon and Peter Lang of HighTower Advisors discuss the benefits of mixing active and passive management in a portfolio.
Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that he expects gold to be range-bound and move sideways for as long as the big macro issues like he trade war with China and interest rates domestically go unresolved, but he expects gold to mostly hold to current, recently inflated values because there isn't much on the horizon to drive prices down. Also on the show, Gina Pogol of AmOne.com discusses a survey on big personal-finance mistakes, Sa El of SimplyInsurance.com joins Chuck to answer an audience question, and we rebroadcast a recent interview talking global markets with Giorgio Caputo of J.O. Hambro Capital Management.
Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com chats with Chuck about his firm's latest research, which showed that despite a decade of economic expansion, nearly 40 percent of Americans still list catching up on bills as their biggest financial priority, followed by saving more and paying down debt. Also on the show, Sally Outlaw of Worthy Financial discusses how her firm's crowd-funding of small-business bonds has created a higher-yielding alternative to money-market accounts, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a high-cost technology fund in the Danger Zone and Ed Shill of the five-star QCI Balanced fund talked stocks and valuations in the Market Call.
Money Life adds a new regular feature today with the debut of The NAVigator, a segment that will cover the ins and outs of avtice investing in closed-end funds, today featuring John Cole Scott of the Active Investment Company Alliance and Closed-End Fund Advisors. Also, Bill Kornitzer of the Buffalo International Fund says the world is on hold waiting for US-China dispute to end, but he expects the countries to reach temporary agreements as this is a skirmish in a battle for global economic dominance. Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner talks the potential impact impeachment proceedings will have on the stock market, and Brian Bollinger of Simply Safe Dividends makes his debut in the Market Call.
Katherine Renfrew of the TIAA-CREF Emerging Markets Debt fund discusses how the bond market in China and around the world is reacting to headlines about trade wars and interest-rate hikes, while Yung-Yu Ma of BMO Wealth Management talks about how today's low-rate, high-volatility market should have investors considering yield-driven alternatives like structured notes and preferred stocks for a small part of their portfolio. Also,Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com has his 'ETF of the Week' and Michelle Kryger of AIG chats about her firm's newly released survey on how seniors are scammed and exploited by family members and strangers and how you can help aging parent avoid those troubles.
Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said that while the domestic market is overpriced relative to historical prices, while international markets are underpriced, a condition which suggests that investors might want to seek more opportunities even as they ride the current long bull market out. Hooper noted that cuts to interest rates will likely determine just how long the market can avoid a real downturn, but she noted that most of the signs remain positive heading into the presidential election year. Also on the show, Rupal Bhansali of Ariel Investments talks about 'non-consensus investing,' the subject of her new book, Jake Falcon and Joe Klein of HighTower Advisors discuss the sector rotation they see coming in the fourth quarter of 2019, and Chuck answers a listener's question about rewards credit cards.
Joe Quinlan of Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private expects a truce, rather than any 'grand deal' on China, but despite those concerns he believes the market is headed higher so he suggests that investors view downturns as buying opportunities -- 'especially in large-cap, dividend-paying stocks' -- for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to hit 33,000 before the current market cycle ends, which he says could be 18 to 24 months away. Anne Marie Levin of Key Private Bank discusses her firm's recent study of philanthropy disagreements in wealth families, and we revisit a recent chat with Eddy Vataru of the Osterweis funds.
Omar Aguilar of Charles Schwab Investment Management joins Chuck to talk about BeFi 2019, a new behavioral-finance study which shows that focusing on recent events, being too adverse to losses and more can wreck solid financial plans. Also, Scott Lynn of Masterworks discusses investing in fine art in ways not possible until recently, Sam McBride of New Constructs puts another popular IPO in the Danger Zone, and Chuck revisits a recent interview with Noland Langford of Left Brain Capital Management.
Neil Hennessy, founder of the Hennessy Funds says the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to 30,000 'before we have any worries,' making the case that the market is well-positioned to continue its long run of growth with only minimal disruptions. Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at Fidelity, meanwhile, is focused on those disruptions and the yellow warning signs in the form of the inverted yield curve, money supply growth, the Federal Reserve and trade wars, but he made it clear that 'This is a market I don't want to bet against,' noting that Dow 30,000 could be a 2020 story. Also on the show, Chuck takes a question about investing in Estonia, and Doug Roberts of Channel Capital Research discusses the fallout and next moves from this week's Fed moves.
Josef Schuster, founder of IPOX Schuster -- which tracks the market for initial-public offerings -- said that the IPO market in 2019 has held up, with start-up numbers generally being similar to a year ago and then pushed beyond those levels thanks to the debut of Uber. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com discusses palladium with his ETF of the Week, John Sweeney of Figure Technologies chats about how much money Americans are overpaying -- more than $100 billion -- by not playing interest rates properly, and value manager Michael Campagna or Moerus Capital talks stocks around the world in the Market Call.
Allan Sloan, award-winning business columnist for the Washington Post, said that while interest-rate cuts are being talked about as good for the market and the economy, there are long-term negative impacts to protracted periods of low rates, affecting pension plans, Also on the show, Giorgio Caputo of J.O. Hambro Capital Management says that the Federal Reserve is 'helicopter parenting' the market, and it can't protect the public from all evils, Jake Falcon and Joseph Klein from HighTower Advisors discuss the things beyond trade wars that top their current list of concerns, and Dan Mahr of Federated Investors talks quantitative stock investing in the Market Call.
Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, said that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again at its meeting that starts today, but he noted that savers who have been doing reasonably well now need to expect to lose ground and consumers who have debts need to aggressively pay them down before there is any long-term bounce back in rates, something he says will happen the next time rates rise. Also on the show, Lou Harvey from DALBAR Inc. discusses a strategy that should help investors stay put, literally, in the next market downturn, and Bill Hench of the Royce Funds talks small- and micro-cap stocks in the Market Call.
David Wright, lead portfolio manager for the Sierra Funds, said that the market has mixed fundamentals and technicals that individually might scare investors but that ultimately are no cause for worry in the short run, because they aren't pointing to a recession in the near-term. That said, he did discuss taking a defensive posture for the current markets, using preferred-stock mutual funds and municipal-bond funds as safe haven that should produce above-average income going forward. Also on the show, author Liz Frazier discusses her new book on teaching kids about money, 'Beyond Piggy Banks and Lemonade Stands,' Sam McBride of New Constructs puts all new initial public offerings in 'the Danger Zone' and we rebroadcast a recent chat with Andrew Foster of Seafarer Capital Management.
Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager for Osterweis Total Return Fund, said that while the market is pricing in the high probability of a recession, he thinks it has been too aggressive and that there won't be a protracted economic slowdown in the near future. He noted that the inverted yield curve may be less of an indicator than in the past because rates currently are so low, which was not the case with past inversions. Also on the show, technical analyst Michael Sincere said the market is in a trend-less trend, with limited upside, some good potential moves to the downside but a rising trend that he doesn't want to fight. It has him mostly on the sidelines now, figuring there will be a clearer trend after the next Federal Reserve meeting. In the Market Call, Aash Shah of Summit Global Investments talked low-volatility stocks, and Chuck also answered an audience question about the value of frequent-flyer miles.
Tom Lydon, editor at ETFTrends.com, said that with interest rates going down andcentral bankers working to manage inflation, many investors should be looking towards gold, both for its traditional role as an inflation hedge but also because it can turbocharge results. He made GOAU, the US Global GO GOLD and Precious Metals Miners ETF his 'ETF of the Week,' noting that the fund has shot up but that the market gives it room for even more growth. Also on the show, author Michael B. Horn talks about keeping perspective while making appropriate college choices, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com covers a survey on how consumers expect to spend less on their cell phones, even with the new iPhone coming out, and Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn mixes news and fundamentals as he talks stocks in the Market Call.
Ed Cofrancesco of International Assets Advisory said in the Big Interview that it's a sideways market with factors that could push it significantly out of the range it has traded in towards new highs or recent lows, but that investors should not be over-reacting to news and to headline risk. Cofrancesco said he ultimately expects the market to move higher once a trade deal is agreed upon with China. Also on the show, Jake Falcon and Joseph Klein of HighTower Advisors discuss how the ongoing trade war with China is trickling down into their thinking and planning on behalf of their clients, Chuck takes an audience question about his personal portfolio, and Chris Retzler from the Needham Small-Cap Growth Fund has the Market Call.
Lorna Kapusta, head of women and investing at Fidelity Investments, said that recent research by her firm showed that more than half of women keep nearly all of their savings in cash or bank accounts, compared to about 30 percent of men. Those staggering numbers show why it is hard to anyone to grow their savings into an appropriate retirement nest egg. Also on the show, author Dana Look-Arimoto talks about smart settling, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses the site's latest research and we rebroadcast a recent chat with leading value investor Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Asset Management.
Chuck closes out his coverage of #FinCon19 by chatting with five FinCon stars, including Doug Nordman of The-Military-Guide.com, Philip Taylor, the founder of both Fincon and of ptmoney.com, Andy Hill of the Marriage, Money and Kids blog and podcast, Sarah Li-Cain, writer and host at Beyond the Dollar, and Steve Stewart, podcast editor and the community leader of FinCon's Podcast Network.
Chuck is at FinCon 2019, the giant meeting of podcasters, bloggers, writers and other content creators from throughout the personal-finance world. His guests today cover a wide range of subjects and programming. You'll hear from Gwen Merz of Fiery Millenials, Stephanie McCullough of Sofia Financial, Dustin Heiner of MasterPassiveIncome.com, Kent Brown of the Daily Money Show, Australian Paul Benson of Financial Autonomy, Kelly McKillip of Couch Cents, Whitney Hansen of The Money Nerds, and Logan Allec of Money Done Right.
Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ) his ETF of the Week saying it's that -- despite the inversion in the yield curve -- it's an appropriate investment response to today's common investment concerns, because long-term bonds stabilize a portfolio in low-rate, recessionary environments. Also on the show, author James Pattersenn looks at stocks a young Warren Buffett would buy, Brooklyn Lowery of CardRatings.com discusses credit-card churning, and Joe Saul-Sehy of the Stacking Benjamins podcast helps Chuck prepare for FinCon 2019 by discussing the good, bad and ugly of the podcast world and the blogosphere.
Jim Welsh, macro strategist and portfolio manager at Smart Portfolios, said he expects the market to rally to rpughly 2,950 on the Standard and Poor's 500 ahead of the next Fed meeting, only to have the central bankers issue some sort of disappointing news around a rate cut that puts the market into a short tailspin down to the 2,750 range. From there, Welsh said, expect an oversold bounce that helps to fuel the next rally. Also on the show, author Caitlin Zaloom discusses the lengths parents go to in order to pay for college educations, we rebroadcast an interesting disagreement between Jeremiah Reithmiller and Steve Tresnan of HighTower Advisors on how to use alternative investments in a portfolio, and Michael Robinson of Money Map Press stops by to talk stocks in the Market Call.
Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com said that more than two-thirds of people with credit-card debt are making a financial mistake by trying to maximize credit-card rewards rather than forgoing the bonuses for a card with a lower rate and fewer costs that will help them eliminate debt faster, noting that gaining a few percentage points in cash back or airline miles is not worth the average credit card's 18 percent rate. Also on the show, author Rita McGrath talks about identifying transformative changes in business ahead of the crowd, Noland Langford of Left Brain Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck answers a question about home-purchase offers you might get in the mail.
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon, is not forecasting a recession in the United States but he said that trade uncertainty has been a drag on economic activity worldwide, creating a global recession. Moreover, even when the trade and tariff disputes are resolved, he said things will not be better than before, as it will take time to recover from the damage being caused by the slowdown in trade. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about an investing strategy espoused by Jim Cramer, Sandy Block of Kiplinger's Personal Finance talks about ways to simplify your finances, and Mike Liss of American Century Value has the Market Call.
Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital Corp. -- an original member of the famous Turtle Traders -- said in the Market Call that he'd rather find the most-diversified portfolio than simply trying to find the best stocks, noting that investors need to be taking a defensive posture -- using precious metals, commodities and betting against stocks with short positions -- to be well positioned in today's uncertain markets. Also on the show, author Kendall Rose discussed how step-parents can avoid the financial issues that are often a problem for blended families, financial planner Judith Ward of T. Rowe Price discussed how parents and children fail to communicate on college costs, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com checked in his pick for ETF of the Week, a specialty fund that loves the online retailers and shorts traditional big-box brands.
Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management said in the Market Call that his form of value investing -- which relies heavily on the PEG ratio -- has seent he number of bonafide investment opportunities shrink as the market has slowed down. He expects the trend to continue, even as he does not expect the market to hit a full-blown recession soon. Also on the show, Richard Flahive and Ray Baraldo if HighTower Advisors, discussing the distribution phase of life, Jean Statler of the Alliance for Lifetime Income on how people need to consider setting up income streams to reduce retirement worries, and Zack Friedman, author of 'The Lemonade Life.'
Brad lamensdorf of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF said that the market has been getting weaker with every correction, recapturing old highs more slowly and showing signs that a real downdraft with longer-lasting results could be on the way, particularly once sentiment turns ugly. He noted that if the Standard and Poor's 500 breaks through current support levels, it would likely fall at least 200 points further. Also on the show, financial adviser and author Ed Butowsky talks about scary financial advisers, Andrew Crowell of D.A. Davidson discusses the real benefits of saving when you are young, and lamensdorf returns to talk stocks in the Market Call.
Andrew Foster of Seafarer Capital Partners said that trade and tariff wars have not stopped growth in emerging markets, but they have exacerbated a slowing trend, particularly in China, that will make developing and emerging markets harder to profit from in the near future. Foster noted that valuations in emerging markets are reasonable, but without growth to help drive the market, investors should expect muted returns from emerging markets for the long-term future. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com talks about how many workers are not increasing their set asides to retirement plans, Sam McBride of NewConstructs.com -- no relation -- discusses a stock that is headed for trouble and Greg Woodard of Manning and Napier covers stocks in the Market Call.
Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com said the Standard and Poor's 500 seems headed down to about 2,700 now as it pushes through what he called an 'ABC pattern' that started recently, has gone through the first two steps and is awaiting the third move, which traditionally will be down. Zanegr right now is only 10 percent invested in the market, and he warns that while the market has been in a range, the volatility has been hurting a lot of traders. Also on the show, Sir John Hargrave talks his new book about blockchain and bitcoin, Ken Tumin of DepositAccounts.com says that Americans are losing billions of dollars to misplaced loyalty to their bankers, and Chuck talks about a media-darling investment expert who turned out to be a fake.
Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Asset Management -- arguably the leading light along with Warren Buffett when it comes to value investing -- said that reports that value investing has stopped working are exaggerated and wrong, so long as you have the right definition of value investing. Most investors don't. Yann Cornil of the University of British Columbia talked about something else investors don't do right, namely diversify. James Hickey of H.D. Vest Financial Services said he doesn't expect a recession in the near-term despite headline risks, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com covers a hot trend with a trendy new fund.
Peter Vanderlee of ClearBridge Investments said that between low payout ratios and reasonable rates of growth, investors in dividend-paying stocks should have a positive outlook as they play defense against the slowing economic and market conditions likely to be in place over the next few years. Vanderlee noted that while there has been a flight to safety among investors, they have not bid up dividend-payers to where investors can't get fair values and the occasional bargain. Also on the show, Ray Baraldi and Richard Flahive of HighTower Advisors discussed the processes they believe investors should be following during the 'accumulation phase' of their lifetimes, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com talked about how many consumers now find back-to-school shopping more stressful and costly than holiday shopping, and Randy Bateman of Balcones Investment Research returned to the Market Call to talk top-down investing and the companies that will benefit from robotics
Justin Hance, director of research for the Oakmark Funds, said that valuations in Europe remain attractive despite slower economic activity and perceived problems there, noting that on a stock-by-stock basis, investors are able to find quality businesses at reasonable prices more easily than in other markets around the globe. Also on the show, Megan Greene of the National Association for Business Economics discussed the group's most recent survey showing when economists believe we will see a recession, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com talked about the things many people have felt they can not afford to spend their money on this summer, and Simon Lack of SL Advisors and the American Energy Independence ETF covered energy stocks in the Market Call.
Brandon Nelson, senior portfolio manager at Calamos Investments, said small-cap stocks are the cheapest they've been in many, many years relative to large-caps, noting that investors could win playing them on different levels, as an asset class in general but also making bets on individual securities. He favors technology, health care and consumer-discretionary stocks while mostly avoiding industrial materials, energy and utility issues. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks consumers using cash versus plastic, Sam McBride of NewConstructs.com says that WeWork is an IPO that makes other new-stock follies look almost sane, and we rebroadcast a recent interview with Les Nanberg of Cornerstone Wealth, who -- unlike most experts -- expects to see recession sooner rather than later.
John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, said that while the market is stuck between a major support level of roughly 2,800 and resistance at 2,950 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it remains in a bullish trend, which he expects to resume after economic cross-currents like trade wars, the inverted yield curve and slowing global growth are worked out. Also on the show, Tadas Viskanta of AbnormalReturns.com discusses who, if anyone, is trustworthy these days in the world of online financial advice and commentary, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com chats about fund investing in an extended Market Call.
A day after the stock market suffered its worst loss of the year and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 800 points, Chuck hosts Chris Zaccarelli of Independent Advisors Alliance and David Goerz of Strategic Frontier Management for two extended Big Interview sessions. While the pair disagreed on how and whether to use the current decline as a buying opportunity -- with Zaccarelli saying he will buy secondary dips, but not this one and Goerz looking for mispricings to take advantage of -- both expect the market to rebound and be above current levels by year's end. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to Europe with his ETF of the Week.
Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that with large-cap stocks near fair value, he doesn't think there is much room for stocks to run over the rest of the year, though he does think they will finish the 2019 up from current levels. With that in mind, Wren suggested that investor play the range-bound market, buying when the Standard and Poor's 500 goes below 2,800 and looking to take profits when the market again reaches new highs and maintains 3,000. Also on the show, Collective Wisdom from HighTower Advisors, Todd Grossman of TalkWalker USA discusses social media marketing campaigns, and Dan Brady of TrendRating.com talks stocks in the Market Call.
Rusty Vanneman, president at CLS Investments, said that despite an outlook for heightened volatility, the stock market looks poised for a 'nice move into year end,' and he warned nervous investors that heading to the sidelines means missing out on the fun. Vanneman noted that while investors are right to be concerned about trade and tariff wars, those situations typically end with a positive resolution, making most of the interim movements little more than market noise. Also on the show, Chuck answers an audience member's question about physical-gold funds, Gina Pogol of AmOne.com talks about consumers' summer spending habits and money needs, and there is a rebroadcast of a July chat with Chris Davis of the Davis Funds.
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, put Netflix stock back in the Danger Zone, noting that the company has overcome troubling analysis that has called for a big decline for a long time, but he said that the stock's underlying circumstances have grown worse as it the share price has defied gravity, and he expects a crash to Earth soon, spurred in part by heightened competition and worrisome spending. Also on the show, Jason Reposa of MyBankTracker.com discusses the billions of dollars Americans are wasting on bank fees, author Carl Frey talks 'The Technology Trap' and changes in the labor market in the modern age of automation, and Mark Travis of Intrepid Capital Management is all about value investing and beaten-up small-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Les Nanberg of Cornerstone Wealth Management in Boston said he sees big slowdowns in economic activity around the world, including the United States, and ntoed that itnerest rate cuts will not do much to stem weakness, especially with a trade war making growth and recovery more difficult. He expects to see a recession start before the year is up, and has had clients go 10 percent lighter than normal on equities as they play defense; he is also mostly in Treasuries on the bond side, noting that he fears weakness in rates too. While Nanberg's analysis was based on fundamentals, D.R. Barton jr. of 10MinuteMillionaire.com talked technicals and he believes the market will actually go higher over the rest of the year, and Charles Rotblut of AAII.com discussed his group's investor sentiment survey, which showed a lot of bearishness that he suggested might represent a buying opportunity. Amid all of those market disagreements, Chuck also chatted with Kimberly Clausing, author of 'Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital.'
Gary Bradshaw of the Hodges Fund discusses how the changing interest-rate environment and growing nervousness about the stock market is making blue-chip, dividend-paying stocks like Verizon and Coca-Cola ideal defensive positions, providing safe, rising yields at times when income is harder to generate. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a high-yielding municipal-bond fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, talks the real estate market in a declining-rate environment, and Richard Barrington of MoneyRates.com discusses the best cities to downsize and retire in.
With volatility returning to the market and many investors expecting a downturn, Tim Clift, chief investment strategist at Envestnet, said investors should look to rebalance portfolios to protect gains, be opportunistic buyers on dips but to mostly expect the market's volatility to amount to a flat ride through to the end of the year. That would leave 2019 as a double-digit gainer, he noted, so while flat doesn't sound good, holding onto current gains likely will keep investors satisfied, and it leaves room for the market to grow as it heads into the election year. Also on the show, Jimmy Hausberg and Michael Policar of HighTower Advisor discuss alternative investment types and diversifying from traditional allocations, with Hausberg favoring defined-outcome funds while Policar likes core private real estate. Leonard Wright of the American Institute of CPAs discussed investors' current levels of pleasure and pain, and Sandy Villere III of the Villere Funds talked stocks and concentrated portfolios in the Market Call.
In a wide-ranging show, Chuck discusses the world of meat substitutes and the investment potential of the developing market with Arun Daniel, senior fund manager at J.O. Hambro, and he talks about the the potential to make serious money -- and which demographic is doing it -- from the side-gig economy with Kathy Kristof, founder of SideHusl.com. Also on the show, author Chris Dumont talks about how you can 'Kick Some Financial Ass,' while David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight talks about how market volatility confuses investors.
Wall Street veteran Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, said that ths strength of the American consumer means that the economy can hold off a recession until 2021, but he noted that he expects choppy and frustrating markets without recession, and said he worries abut the yield curve if the Federal Reserve has to cut three times and can't make the curve much steeper. Doll -- who also reviewed his forecasts for 2019 on the show -- said investors should be looking to buy the dips but also to trim during the rallies. Also on the show, Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden and Rygel, was a bit more optimistic about the economy, though he agreed with Doll about a recession being at least two years off. David Trainer of New Constructs put GoDaddy and Dropbox in the Danger Zone.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3Edge Asset management, said the domestic stock market is as overvalued now as it was before the Internet bubble burst in the late 1990s, which is why he has turned defensive in his investment strategy, going near minimum levels on equity allocations and underweight the US in equities -- with his bond allocations heavy on Treasuries but shying away from the credit markets -- as he anticipates an economic slowdown ahead that Federal Reserve rate cuts won't stop. Also on the show, Ben Jones of BMO Global Asset Management talks a change in IRS rules allowing employers to offer lump-sum payouts in exchange for pension liabilities and discusses what factors pensioners should consider before accepting an offer, and Dana D'Auria, portfolio manager at Symmetry Partners talks ETFs and traditional funds as she makes her Money Life debut in an extended Market Call.
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, said that the economic data shows a slowing economy that needs to respond from Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate cut by showing signs of revenue growth in order for the market rally to continue. Despite danger signs he sees in the market, McKnight noted that America remains the best place to invest, with emerging markets also looknig relatively attractive while Europe and Japan are likely to struggle for the foreseeable future. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made an agricultural-commodity product his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discussed the readiness of self-employed workers, and George Putnam III of the Turnaround Letter covered value investing and stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Gayed of the Lead-Lag Report said that the market's reaction to today's anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut could show how long the bull market can continue. He noted that if the Fed steps in but there is no steepening of the yield curve, it's a problem because central-bank actions -- both domestically and abroad -- are not going to normalize long-term bond yields. That's a sign that the bull market is not healthy, Gayed said. Likewise, in the Market Call, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management noted that he is looking to get into the few market areas that are on sale and unloved, and he noted in 'Hold It or Fold It' that he would be leaving momentum in favor of a bear-market fund because of his concerns for the market's health. Also on the show, Michael Policar and Jimmy Hausberg of HighTower Advisors discuss a case of a consumer looking to make an allocation change because the market's health makes them nervous, and Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub talks about how consumers should react to the Capital One data breach.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that the domestic economy is far from falling into a recession, but he noted that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is nearing a recession and manufacturing globally is already there. 'It seems silly to me,' Bruselas said, 'to think that what is happening in the global economy won't happen in the United States,' which is why expects extended Fed rate cuts to help stave off sowing global conditions through at least the end of next year. Also on the show, Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, said he hopes the Fed will take a bigger-tna-expected step this week because it's necesary to hold off building inflationary pressures. Plus, Chuck has the Weird Financial News and we revisit a recent chat with Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist for Invesco, said that investors need to overcome their fears to stay invested as the market continues to climb the proverbial wall of worry to new heights. Levitt noted the cycles 'end the same way, with the federal Reserve killing them with interest rate hikes.' With the Fed about to cut rates, Levitt noted that the current cycle could go on 'a lot longer than people expect.' Also on the show, Sara Rutledge of the National Association for Business Economics discusses her group's quarterly survey - released this morning - while Sam McBride puts a popular stock in the 'Danger Zone' and Richard Peterson of MarketPsych Data discusses how investors are feeling and thinking in current market conditions.
Chuck chats with Jim Garnett of the Institute of Consumer Financial Education about the biggest money mistakes ordinary consumer routinely make, covering credit, savings and other issues. Also on the show, Les Masterson, managing editor of Insurance.com discusses how consumers could save money -- or see insurance premiums rise -- based on some common and also some unusual behaviors, and David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College discusses his book 'Not Working: Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone," plus we revisit a recent interview with Martin Pring of Pring Research discussing the market's technical outlook.
Kathy Bostjancic, chief US financial economist, for Oxford Economics USA, said 'It's an unusual and tenuous time for all central banks,' as they look to cut interest rates at a time when there is not much room for cutting and there is still economic growth. Bostjancic expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times by January, and still sees plenty of strength in the economy, which she believes is likely to overcome current challenges to stay strong. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks about a new, specialized real estate ETF in the 'ETF of the Week,' William Delwiche -- investment strategist at Baird -- talks technical analysis, and author Finn Brunton discusses the 'unknown history' of the last century that has led to the evolution in cryptocurrencies. Don't miss his explanation of how some of the most powerful figures in the crypto revolution now leave cryptocurrencies with links to frozen heads!
Laura Geritz, founder and president at Rondure Global Advisors, said the market and the economy are acting in unusual ways, noting that the disconnect between growth and value is oversized, citing concerns about the actions of central banks in lowering rates even as economic activity seems to be growing and more, but she noted that the market is likely to continue pushing higher because investors seem willing to ignore most concerning trends, at least for now. Also on the show, Jimmy Hausberg and Michael Policar of HighTower Advisors discuss risk tolerance and asset allocation changes in current markets, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureaus discusses a new scam centered on travel site Expedia.com, and author Agustin Lebron talks about 'The Laws of Trading."
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said that while there is the potential for the market to slow down and a recession to happen, the trouble signs he expects to see before those issues have not come up yet, noting that consumer confidence and job growth both remain strong. Also on the show, Thomas Winmill of the Midas Fund said that foreign central-bank purchases of precious metals have helped to make gold particularly attractive right now. Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses the most popular forms of credit-card rewards, and Chuck tells you when or if you might be getting any money from Equifax over the proposed settlement of its 2017 big data breach.
Paul Eitelman, senior multi-asset investment strategist at Russell Investments, said that investors should gravitate towards value stocks while holding tight to their growth names because the market is at an intriguing point, one where the economy is slowing and CEOs have stopped investing but where there is no meltdown because Federal Reserve and Chinese policymakers are injecting stimulus into the market. If that stimulus is damaged by a protracted, deep trade war, however, Eitelman said the market and economy could turn for the worse quickly. Also on the show, David Trainer puts a highly ranked fund in the Danger Zone, Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor discusses energy, utility and income stocks, and Chuck takes a listener's questions about credit cards and credit scores.
Niladri Mukherjee, head of portfolio strategy, Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private Bank, said that fund flows -- rather than investor-sentiment measures -- are showing that individuals are too pessimistic right now, pulling billions from equity funds and moving all that money and more into bond funds at a time when the stock market still has room to run and doesn't have imminent signs of impending trouble. Also on the show, Brian Carberry of Apartment Guide discusses the lengths some workers will go -- or not go -- when it comes to mixing their job and their home life, and Brock Moseley of Miracle Mile Advisors talks ETFs and tactical investing in the Market Call.
Albert Meyer of Bastiat Capital is concerned about trade and tariff wars and with the impact of interest rate cuts, but he noted that this is no time to be listening to the 'doomsayers,' suggesting that investors should not be fearful because while the market is highly priced, it's not in particularly dangerous territory. Also on the show, Karl Mills of Jurika, Mills and Kiefer expressed cautious optimism for the market moving forward, noting that nervous investors should be rebalancing and focusing on their allocations rather than looknig to make wholesale changes to a portfolio. Tom Lydon discussed a classic fund as his 'ETF of the Week,' saying investors should make it a big chunk of their portfolio, and Oliver Browne of Credit Card Insider, talked about misconceptions the average consumer has about credit scores.
Nuveen chief investment strategist Brian Nick said he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times, but said the third cut 'won't be necessary,' and is more like 'mid-cycle insurance' to keep the economy humming along. Still, while he sees no threat of imminent recession, Nick suggested that investors get defensive, worry more about their asset allocation than about tactically deploying money, and spend the next few years thinking about how to squeeze income -- rather than total return -- from their portfolio. Also on the show, Collective Wisdom from HighTower Advisors centers around the use of technology in advisory relationships, Chuck talks about how to overcome the financial hoarding tendencies of the 'greatest generation,' and Adam Levin of CyberScout talks about how Amazon Prime days were prime days for scammers, and how consumers should protect themselves from similar frauds.
In answering a question from a listener, Chuck talks about financial challenges that savers can do to help them get out of debt or budget better, noting that coming up with necessary funds to cover emergencies can be done a dollar or five dollars at a time, or by going through a challenge to set aside an extra dollar every week for a year -- so one buck the first week, two the second and so on -- amassing 1,378 dollars in a year. Also on the show, Adrian Garcia of BankRate.com discusses the best states to retire to, author and financial adviser Anthony Delauney discusses 'Owning the Dash,' and value investor Jack Murphy of Levin Easterly Partners makes his debut in the Market Call.
Rob Sharps, head of investments at T. Rowe Price, said the economy is not as deep into the business cycle as many people believe, leaving more time and room for continued growth, yet with substantial weakness outside of the United States and an unresolved trade war and more, he suggested investors rein in their aggressive tendencies in favor of a more neutral and balanced approach. Alo on the show, Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investments gives his take to President Trump's first statements on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, Simeon Hyman, global head of investments at ProShares, discussed the pet care industry, and celebrated Amazon Prime Day by discussing the future of retail stores, and Sam McBride of New Constructs put Verint Systems in the Danger Zone.
Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research said he expects the stock market to avoid a recession and keep going much higher, noting that the indicators he follows are almost all 'pointing north' as the market ignores any weakness it sees in the economy. He noted that if bad news can't knock the market down, there's not much out there right now that can. Also on the show, Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research discussed the upcoming earnings season, which he suggested is likely to beat analyst expectations, plu we rebroadcast a recent chat covering market technicals with Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel and Keith Gangl of Gradient Investments makes his debut in the Market Call.
Chun Wang, senior analyst at Leuthold Weeded Asset Management, said that his firm's analysis of the market has made the portfolio managers defensive, slightly below neutral on holding stocks, largely because the long-term picture is showing too many negatives, signs that there could be trouble ahead with a significant correction or bear market in the next year or two. Meanwhile, Lindsey Bell of CFRA Research noted that current conditions appear solid, but that second-quarter earnings results will say a lot about whether hte market can avoid a downturn for the rest of the year; she expects those upcoming quarterly numbers to be better-than-anticipated, allowing the market to at least retain current gains for the rest of the year. Also on the show, Tome Lydon of ETF Trends.com talks about an usual precious metals fund, and Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub covers travel credit cards.
Doug Foreman, chief investment strategist at Kayne Anderson Rudnick, said that investors have plenty of reasons to worry about whether the market can hold recent highs, but that if they focus on quality issues, there are plenty of cmopanies worth buying and owning regardless of what the market does next, where investors can buy into strong cash flows and dividend streams that are likely to remain in place even if the market turns for the worse. Also on the show, Cory Bittner and Peter Lang of HighTower Advisors discussed how financial planning helps clients cross the divide from working and accumulating funds to retirement and living off of investments, Izet Elmazi of Bristol Gate Capital Partners discusses how he uses artificial intelligence to help find better investments and manage portfolios, and Jose Rowe of LendingTree discussed a recent MagnifyMoney.com survey on money anxieties.
Markus Schomer, chief economist at Pinebridge Investments, said that while job growth and economic activity are slowing, the anticipated interest rate cuts should reboot business activity and leave the economy at an equilibrium point it can maintain through 2020. Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel -- while discussing technical analysis rather than the economy -- came to a similar conclusion, noting that while the market is currently 'ahead of itself' and could be due for a short-term setback, declines will be buying opportunities from now through most of the election year, suggesting that investors ignore the noise and instead see the market's potential. Also on the show, Bruce Bond of Innovator ETFs discusses defined-outcome investing, which effectively crosses indexed-annuity products with exchange-traded funds, and Judith Ward of T. Rowe Price discusses a recent survey showing how far behind Baby Boomer women are compared to men when it comes to retirement savings.
A recent study by Fidelity Investments found that money and healthy living are the two greatest concerns that women have, and each often affects the other. Lorna Kapusta from Fidelity said that the surprise in the study was not that 85 percent of women are stressed about finances, but that the high level of stress exists across all age groups of women, meaning that women always feel like they are not doing enough to save and prepare for retirement. Also on the show, Ethan Powell, chief executive officer at Impact Shares, a not-for-profit ETF provider, Sam Mcbride of New Constructs leads a trip to the Danger Zone and the Market Call is a rebroadcast of a recent chat with Michael Roomberg of the Miller-Howard Drillbit-to-Burner.
In a wide-ranging, free-flowing 'no-pants Friday' show, Chuck talks with Tom Lydon of ETFTrends, who makes an innovative new fund his 'ETF of the Week,' he discusses the future of exchange-traded funds and the evolution of more active funds with John Swolfs, chief executive officer at Inside ETFs, he covers one of his favorite topics -- allowances for children -- with Bankrate.com's Ted Rossman, and then chats value investing, the state of the market and international opportunities with Nick Kaiser, chief investment strategist at Saturna Capital.
Christopher Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and portfolio manager for the Davis Funds, said in the Big Interview that financial companies now represent 'growth stocks in disguise,' and he said the financial sector is positioned to deliver oversized gains for at least the next decade. Also on the show, Peter Lang and Cory Bittner of highTower Advisors discuss the many non-financial ways they interact with clients to achieve life goals as well as financial targets, Elyse Cherry of BlueHub Capital discusses impact investing and how investors can find ways to invest that make a real difference in communities they love, and Greg McBride from BankRate.com talks about how everyday Americans and financial experts don't see eye-to-eye on the state of the economy and stock market.
Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion and Walsh Asset Management, said that while the economy is strong and still growing and the market is constructive toward stocks, investors should be focusing on quality, favoring companies with strong balance sheets, entrenched management, a history of growing earnings and dividends and more, noting that as the economy slows and election-year headlines take over it will be the issues with those qualities that stand out. Also on the show,Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about how stressed Americans are over money, Mandi Woodruff of MagnifyMoney.com covers the places where someone might earn six figures but still go broke, and Mark DeVaul of the Hennessy Equity and Income fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jill Gonzalez, spokesperson for WalletHub, said that her site's annual 4th of July survey found that millions of Americans are feeling more financial freedom this year, but that nearly one-quarter of Americans wish they could be free of credit-card debt, second by a hair only to over-eating as something people want to cut back on. The study also showed that Americans believe that the federal government is watching their spending, tracking their credit-card activity, despite no real proof or reason to believe it is. Also on the show, author Michele Cagan talks about real-estate investing to generate income streams, Sam McBride of New Constructs puts the Securities and Exchange Commission in the Danger Zone over a recent rules change, and we rebroadcast a recent Market Call with Charlie Bobrinskoy of the Ariel Funds.
Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust International, said that the current market environment is not great for taking risks, but it also isn't terrific for avoiding risks. That means investors should stay neutral on buying stocks and bonds, putting their portfolios at their basic, starting-level allocations, not overweight or underweight anything while waiting for signs from the market about what will happen next. Also on the show, Jeffrey Hirsch from the Stock Trader's Almanac talks technical analysis, Catherine Yoshimoto from FTSE Russell discusses the reconstitution of Russell's indexes -- which happens after today's market close -- and Doug Cartwright of the Buffalo Emerging Opportunities fund makes his debut in the Market Call.
In a show that covers a wide range of investment types and strategies, Tom Lydon discusses fallen-angel investing -- buying junk bonds from companies that used to be of investment-grade calibar -- in the ETF of the Week, Nick Kalivas of Invesco ETFs talks about the inner workings of low-volatility investing and the types of market conditions when it works best, and Joe Barrato of the Arrow Funds talks about the "Dogs of the World" strategy for investing in the worst-performing countries hoping for a return to average market performance, a gigantic global twist on the classic 'Dogs of the Dow' strategy. Also ont he show, Ted Rossman of BankRate.com on a recent survey showing how much credit debt many parents get into when school is out and they must provide summer child care.
Bob Browne, chief investment officer at Northern Trust, said in the Big Interview that the market is acting in ways that make it easy for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and he expects three rate cuts before year end, a response to what he called 'stuckflation' combined with modest economic growth. Also on the show, Peter Lang and Cory Bittner of HighTower Advisors discuss value investing and when or if it will really work again, Ted McCarthy of LendEDU talks about per-capita lottery spending, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
Jim Welsh, macro strategist for Smart Portfolios and author of the Weekly Technical Review newsletter said that the market's various benchmarks are diverging, so that while the public attention has been on recent highs for the Standard and Poor's 500, they have been ignoring the mixed and dangerous signals coming from things like the Dow Transports. He expects the market to enjoy its current highs but to for the S-and-P to challenge recent support levels of 2,800 before Labor Day, noting that if the benchmark can't hold that level it could fall to around 2,350 quickly. Also on the show, author and attorney Michael Hackard discusses protecting your loved ones from financial fraud, Roch Polimeni of the College Savings Foundation talks about their annual survey of how high school students are now viewing college through the financial lens, and Brian Andrew of Johnson Financial Group covers funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Sam McBride, investment analyst at New Constructs, said that misleading operating lease discount rates -- a statistic that is now more widely available and which is a big red flag for many companies, especially retailers -- are masking real trouble at J.C. Penney, making the struggling retailer's problems worse than most people surmise. As a result, McBride thinks the company is likely headed to bankruptcy. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question about Coca-Cola stock, Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks social investing and small-cap stocks in the Big Interview, and Michael Roomberg of the Miller/Howard Drill-Bit-to-Burner-Tip fund has the Market Call.
Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, say that with the market having reached new highs, it's now getting more complex. He's still bullish, but he does see potential troubles down the line, making this a time when investors can be 'rewarded handsomely' for being aggressively long on stocks. John Sarson of the Sarson Funds explains in the Big Interview why 'The Internet and cryptocurrency go together like peanut butter and jelly,' Chuck explores the latest weird financial news, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners covers stocks in the Market Call.
Doug Roberts of Channel Capital Research -- author of 'Follow the Fed to Investment Success' -- said the central bank's announcement Wednesday that it did not expect to cut rates in 2019 but does expect to drop them next year was the start of trying to create a perfect landing, a situation he suggested will not be easy given the countervailing forces affecting the market and the economy. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks his 'ETF of the Week,' professor Andrea hasler discusses a recent survey about how educators feel when it comes to teaching personal finance in schools, and Brian Lockhart of Peak Capital Management discusses stocks and ETFs in the Market Call.
Regis Dale, chief executive officer at Harvest Global International -- the largest institutional asset manager in China -- said investors should worry about the impact of trade and tariff skirmishes between China and the United States, but noted that investors who are willing to be patient for the next several years should find that current headlines are mostly creating buying opportunities. Also on the show, Jeremiah Riethmiller and Steve Tresnan of HighTower Advisors disagree about the proper use of alternative investments now, Chuck rebroadcasts a recent question on 7702 plans that was tied to yesterday's question on life insurance retirement plans, and Patrick Healey of Caliber Financial Partners talks stocks in the Market Call.
Tracie McMillion, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said her firm remains neutral on stocks overall -- but favorable on emerging markets and domestic mid-caps -- due to heightened risk factors, but she noted that with no recession on the horizon for the rest of the year, investors should be looking to buy on dips and take advantage of opportunities created by market uncertainty in a time when a big, long-lasting downturn seems unlikely. Also on the show, Amanda Dixon of Bankrate.com discusses Americans' side-gig habits, Chuck takes another question on insurance plans for retirement savings, and Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman of the Ariel Funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Barry James, chief investment officer at the James Advantage Funds, said the market is not functioning properly because companies with no earnings have been up by 20 percent this year, while, by comparison, companies with real earnings are down, a situation that creates the potential for a big downturn when the broad market wakes up to what is happening. James has been slowly raising cash and becoming more defensive in response. Also on the show, Kelley Knutson of Netspend on Americans' fluctuating incomes, Steve Lipper of the small-cap team at the Royce Funds talks the market, and David Trainer says a soon-to-launch IPO belongs in the 'Danger Zone.'
Frank Holmes, chief executive at U.S. Global Investors, said he sees the market currently in a good place, helped by the changing tide of interest rates, but he noted that investors should be looking to diversify into gold and fixed-income to take advantage of that shift as it occurs during a time of slowing economic growth that will make for tougher sledding for stocks. Also, Danielle Shay of SimplerTrading.com said that the resolution of trade issues with Mexico was a strong short-term win for the market, which she now expects to settle into a range until the next earnings season in July, which could prove to be a catalyst for a move higher. Cather Golladay of Schwab Retirement Plan Services discusses the magic number that Americans think they need to amass for a secure retirement, and we rebroadcast a recent Market Call interview with Mike Larson of Weiss Ratings and Weiss' Safe Money Report.
Allison Schrager, author of 'An Economist Walks Into a Brothel ... ' joins Chuck in a discussion about risk and how poorly most people evaluate is when it comes to decisions. Also, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com has the ETF of the Week, Terry Jones of Investor's Business Daily discusses how investor optimism turned away from peak levels in May, Michael Gayed of The Lead-Lag Report gives his technical take on the market, Guy Benstead of the Cedar Ridge Unconstrained Credit Fund discusses the bond market, and Chuck celebrates his borthday!
Michael DiCecco, an asset finance expert with Huntington Commercial Bank, is worried that the transportation and trucking sector could be headed for a recession, and if that sector slows down, it has the potential to lead the rest of the economy into a downturn. Also on the show, Jeremiah Riethmiller and Steve Tresnan of HighTower Advisors discuss very different ways to use fixed-income as an equity hedge now, at a time when traditional bond strategies are less effective than in the past, and Stephen Mathai-Davis of Quantamize does a super-sized Market Call with two helpings of 'Hold It or Fold It,' one covering ETFs and a second for stocks.
Cam Harvey, senior advisor to Research Affiliates and Duke University professor, said that the inverted yield curve model that he discovered -- and which has correctly called major recessions dating back through history -- is poised to trigger at the end of June, a sign that recession is about 12 months off. Also on the show, Chuck takes a question about insurance, Jason Hargraves of InsuranceQuotes.com discusses the value and usefulness of credit-card travel protection, and Malcolm Polley of Stewart Capital Advisors talks stocks and 'business-perspective investing' in the Market Call.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, said that he expects the Federal Reserve to make one rate cut before the year is over, a move that he expects will help to drive the market higher, but despite that potential move to the upside, he recommended that investors get increasingly defensive, looking for high-quality names with stronger balance sheets. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses his site's most-recent study, David Trainer puts a popular brand-name stock in the Danger Zone, and Matt King of King Wealth Advisors covers stocks and ETFs in the Market Call.
Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com said that while he sees plenty of weakness and many bearish technical indicators, he believes the market is headed up barring some sort of significant interest-rate policy or political change. Zanger said he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 to reach 3,300 by year's end, after just barely holding at its current support level of roughly 2,800. Also on the show, Jason Browne of Alexis Invests said that the market has been going through a bear market within a secular bull market, and he said the bear -- which no one wanted to acknowledge -- is nearly done, leaving the market poised for an upturn as the rest of the bull market plays out. Beyond those two extended interviews, Chuck also talks with author and financial planner Clark Kendall about his new book 'Middle-Class Millionaires.'
Sandy Rufenacht of the Aquila Three Peaks High Income Fund, said that a flat credit quality curve -- one that seems to be confusing real junk from safer high-yielding investments -- could turn dangerous if the stock market and the economy get into trouble. He warned that investors need to temper their expectations in high-yield bonds, and prepare for potential trouble ahead. Also on the show, Chuck discusses the legacy of the late John Neff, legendary manager of the Vanguard Windsor fund, it's all Greek to Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com with the 'ETF of the Week,' Mike Foy of J.D. Power discusses Americans' retirement confidence levels, and tactical money manager Michael Ball of Weatherstone Capital Management covers ETFs in the Market Call.
Janet Brown, chief executive at the FundX Investment Group and publisher of the No-Load FundX newsletter, said in the Market Call that fundamentals 'still look decent,' which has meant that the market has only started to move away from the large-cap growth story that has driven the bull run towards more defensive funds, value-oriented funds and small- and mid-cap funds, but she expects that trend to grind on as the market slows down. Also on the show, Jeremiah Riethmiller and Steven Tresnan of HighTower Advisors discuss how to read and interpret economic data and current headlines, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the potentially negativei mpact of closing old credit-card accounts and, in a rebroadcast, Craig Callahan of ICON Advisors talks about the market and how it stands below fair value right now.
Chuck tackles an audience question about a purported retirement investment pitched as a 7702 plan and he points out why this insurance contract generally is a bad idea for consumers, how it is sold in misleading ways and why it's not all that it's cracked up to be. He also talks with author Ken Honda, whose new book 'Happy Money: The Japanese Art of Making Peace With Your Money' is out today, discusses changing long-term mutual fund track records with William Frank of Markov Processes International, and revisits a recent Market Call interview with Justin Carbonneau of Validea.
Lacy Hunt, chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management, said that both the domestic and global economies are becoming increasingly frail, raising the risk of recession occurring sooner rather than later. He fears that slower growth will not be able to sustain positive momentum, noting that too many key economic indicators are showing danger signs. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses Americans' greatest financial regret, author John Quiggin discusses his book 'Economics in Two Lessons,' and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a small-cap mutual fund in the Danger Zone.
Kristina Hooper, global market strategist for Invesco, said that while she does think the market is facing potential troubles as the economy slows down, she does not anticipate either a recession or a bear market now, just because the market has pulled away from recent highs. Also on the show, Benjamin Bailey of the Praxis Impact Bond Fund said investors should not be stretching for yield right now and should be as defensive in their fixed-income portfolio as they are being with equities. Author Jean Chatzky discusses her book, 'Women With Money,' which used conversations about money and investing to help tackle the issues that stand between individuals and financial success, and John Busby of BroadbanNOW talked about a survey showing that summer is the best time to change Internet service and save.
Larry McDonald, publisher of The Bear Traps Report, said that he is expecting a bear market in the next six months, with the market falling by 15 to 25 percent during a downturn, noting that he does believe the decline could end with a recovery occurring during the election season next year. Mike Larson of Weiss Ratings -- editor of that firm's Safe Money Report -- said in the Market Call that he, too, sees trouble ahead, noting that the market 'is telling you to be defensive right now' and that he is roughly 40 percent in cash currently. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made a fund that pays investors to own it -- thanks to a negative expense ratio -- his ETF of the Week, and Rob Scheinerman of AIG Retirement Services discusses how the student-loan debt burden is affecting new graduates.
Charles Biderman, founder of Trim Tabs Investment Research, said that many of the conditions that have kept the market happy and frothy during the latter stages of the bull run are now mostly mirages, creating the potential for a major correction that he could see happening despite 2020 being an election year. Also on the show, it's May 29 -- the day to celebrate 529 college-savings plans -- and Chuck discusses thos plans and how few people understand and use them with Deborah Goodkin of First National Bank of Omaha, he talks alternative investments in a rebroadcast of a Collective Wisdom from HighTower Advisors segment, and he covers funds and ETFs in the Market Call with Kevin Miller of the E-Valuator Funds.
In a wide-ranging show, Chuck chats with Dawn Gilbertson of USA Today about discount airlines and whether they are worth flying, chats with Robert Frick of Navy Federal Credit Union about the potential for recession before the presidential election, answers an audience question about couponing, and discusses brand-name stocks with Eric Clark of the Rational Brands fund.
J.J. Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, said investors need to be worried about trade and tariff wars, should not forget about Brexit fallout and should be wary of the domestic market, but he still believes the current bull market has some room to run and that it remains the best place to search for strong returns. Kinahan appeared after Zach jonson of Stack Financial Management, who was less optimistic about the domestic market, warning that some of the market's technical indicators -- especially some that he believes most people overlook -- show the potential for a significant drop-off. Also on the show, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureaus talks about scams tied to veterans and Memorial Day, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
Craig Callahan, president of the ICON Funds, said that his measures show the current domestic stock market as standing roughly 9 percent below fair value, which translates into the market having that much room to grow roughly over the next year. Callahan said that financial stocks are the best bargains now, along with industrials and consumer discretionary issues. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes his pick for the ETF of the Week, Margaret Raymond of T. Rowe Price discusses new retirement-savings legislation proposed in Washington, and Justin Carbonneau of Validea discusses 'guru investors' in the Market Call.
Crit Thomas, global market strategist for Touchstone Investments, said that record profit margins for many companies here in the United States -- plus declining GDP growth -- raise questions on what kind of upside the domestic stock market has, so while he expects it to continue moving up modestly, he noted that investors seeking higher returns should look to emerging markets. Also on the show, the HighTower gang discusses a key, often-overlooked aspect of financial planning, Chuck answers a question appropriate for celebrating bitcoin Pizza Day, and Louis Navellier of the Navellier Funds talks growth investing in the Market Call.
Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital Management said that the market's daily ups and downs wind up looking like a straight line when investors back away and look at them through a long lens, rather than focusing on the daily news. With that in mind, he suggested tuning out the daily headlines on China and tariff wars, focusing on big-picture factors like economic growth and anticipating a market that can keep moving in a positive direction, although he did note that he believes there are better money-making opportunities in Europe and emerging markets than in the United States right now. Also on the show, Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis gave his technical take on why the market may be due for a short-term decline, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discussed the perks that card shoppers are going for these days, and Harvard Business School professor Victoria Ivashina discussed her new book 'Patient Capital,' covering the benefits of very long-term thinking to solve the public's greatest challenges.
David Trainer of New Constructs said that investors might want to consider rotating away from small-cap growth stocks and funds because the space is over-run with unattractive stocks. In the 'Danger Zone' segment, Trainer noted that less than 10 small-cap growth funds -- and very few individual stocks too -- are earning his firm's very attractive rating, with the entire space of the market overpriced and do for an adjustment. Also on the 'National Be a Millionaire Day' show, Richard Carter of Fidelity Investments discusses ignorant ways that savers are leaving yield on the table when certain investments roll over, Tom Gandolfo of Three Bridges Financial Group talks markets, tariffs and trade, and Bill Smead of the Smead Value fund has the Market Call.
Two technical analysts -- Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios and Avi Gilburt of Elliott Wave Trader -- said they expect the market to have a corrective rally from here, only to then fall to where the Standard and Poor's 500 is in the 2,600 range. Both suggested selling into rallies and becoming more defensive, and said it looks like gold is bottoming out and could be worth buying soon, though Gilburt ultimately expects the decline to be deeper and last longer. Also on the show, Matt Dreith of the Wasatch funds talks India, China and emerging markets, and Chuck discusses lasting lessons taught by the passing of his brother Rob, who would have turned 66 today.
James Abate, chief investment officer at the Centre Funds, said that conditions exist right now which could justify a correction of as much as 30 percent, but he noted that because market valuations are a big part of those dangerous conditions, any big decline is likely to be a long-term buying opportunity, as the strong underlying economy should ultimately keep the market buoyant. Moreover, while Abate can see a potential decline, he is not sure there is a current catalyst to spark it. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks about IPOs, Nalika Nanayakkara of EY Americas discusses how many financial-planning clients want to change their advisers, and Jean Young of the Vanguard Center for Investor Research discusses why so many people are moving into ETFs.
Alan Gayle of Via Nova Investment Management said he does not expect the trade and tariff battles between the US and China to derail the market for the long haul, but he noted that the market will keep taking no more than two steps forward with one step backwards for as long as it is in the headlines. Meanwhile, Jake Falcon and David Hartness of HighTower Advisors discussed their big investment themes for the rest of the year -- without even mentioning China -- Tom Gearing of Cut Wines Asset Management talked about wine as a completely alternative investment choice, and author Mathias Doepke of 'Love, Money and Parenting' talked about the economic conditions that, among other things, might have led to the recent college admissions scandal.
Karl Mills of Jurika, Mills and Kiefer said that Monday's losses should not have investors worried so long as they have properly adjusted their time horizons, and he said he expects most investors to realize down the line that whatever move the market is making now is forgotten short-term noise. Also on the show, Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services said he expects the market to hold at current support levels of roughly 2,800 for the Standard and Poor's 500, noting that it could drop to 2,600 if he is wrong, although he also thought the market's next move is most likely up, in his case to recent highs of roughly 2,950. Dan LaPlante of Citizens Bank Wealth management discussed using the current downturn as an opportunity to rebalance a portfolio and how to deal with taxable gains, and Matt Schulz discussed the latest survey from CreditCards.com.
It's another banner line-up of experts from the Morningstar Investment Conference, as Chuck talks to Kari Droller from Charles Schwab, deep-value manager Amit Wadwhanney from Moerus Capital, alternatives expert Josh Vail of 361 Capital, Brian Milligan from Ave Maria Growth fund, quantitative analyst Joe Mallen of Helios, income specialist Bryce Fegley of Sextant global High Income, muni-bond manager Bob DiMella of Mackay Shields, Natixis' chief market strategist David Lafferty, and a special surprise guest to wrap it all up.
A colossal lineup from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago features Judy Ward of T. Rowe Price, Mona Mahajan of Allianz Global Investors on the markets, Alex Pire of Seeyond talking minimum-volatility investing, Beini Zhou of Matthews Asia Value discussing his reaction to recent presidential tweets about trade wars, Ira Rothberg of Hennessy Focus Fund on valuations and patience, Jeff Holt of Morningstar discussing the firm's latest study of target-date fund, Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group on the evolution of the Morningstar event itself, Alan Adelman of Frost Investment Advisors talking mid-cap stocks, and value investor Abhay Deshpande of Centerstone Investors discussing why Europe may be worth buying now, when most market observers hate it..
On the first day of interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference, Chuck covered a wide range of subjects with five different experts, highlighted by Brian Levitt of OppenheimerFunds, who was bullish on the domestic and emerging markets, but realistic about the upcoming election year posing potential problems. Still, he noted that investors should not be swayed by election-related news, as 'Hating the government is not an investment strategy.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends doing a live variation on his ETF of the Week, Mary Ellen Stanek of Baird Funds, Rich Woodworth of PGIM Investments, and Kristen Mierzwa of FTSERussell.
Jeff Davis , chief investment officer at LMCG Investments said he expects a potential 'revaluing' of the market, noting that it's a good time to lock in gains, rebalance and get defensive as he expects some short-term pain ahead, with a correction of 20 percent or slightly more likely to happen over the next year. Also on the show, David Hartness and Jake Falcon of HighTower Advisors discuss how they resolve conflicts between advisors working with the same clients, Andrew Chanin of Procure ETFs discussed UFO, the first pure-play space ETF, and Dr. David Krueger talked about his new book, which helps investors and savers change their money attitudes and behaviors.
Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark, said that optimistic investors need to recognize that there is always a reasonable scenario that could result in bumpy markets, but that they need to ignore the noise and look through it to be able to capture long-term trends. 'If you can't get comfortable investing in this environment,' Thomas said, 'it's going to be difficult to be successful over time, because there just aren't many environments that are more hospitable from an economic perspective.' Also on the show, Ken Shreve of Investor's Business Daily gives his take on the market's technicals, Chuck answers a question about diversifying life-cycle retirement holdings, and the Market Call is a rebroadcast of a recent chat with Lamar Villere of the Villere Funds.
Hope Manion of Fidelity Investments joined Chuck to discuss the firm's recent research showing that couples will spend, on average, $285,000 on health-care protection in retirement, and discussed how that large burden will only be met by people who understand and plan for the real cost of medical coverage for seniors. Also, Peter Lipsett of DonorsTrust discussed how charitable giving defied expectations in the wake of tax-law changes, Sam McBride of New Constructs out a $16 billion mutual fund on blast in the 'Danger Zone,' and Maury Fertig of Relative Value Partners discussed closed-end funds in the Market Call.
Two different experts talking technical analysis agreed that the inability of the Standard and Poor's Index to reach new highs has made them cautious now, in a slightly defensive posture waiting to see the market's next move. John Kosar of Asbury Research said that most technical measures are strong, but he wants to see the market confirm its strength by reaching new highs, while Michael Sincere -- author of 'Understanding Options' - was more cautious, feeling like the market has reached an inflection point and that a decline back to at least recent lows would not be a surprise. By comparison, Gary Bradshaw of Hodges Blue Chip Equity fund said in the Market Call that the market was encouraging investors to sell their bonds and buy stocks. Also on the show, Kerry Pechter of Retirement Income Journal discussing why index-annuity sales are so strong right now.
Rod Griffin of Experian explained the company's new Boost program, a free method for adding recurring bill payments for mortgages, utility bills and more to credit files, allowing them to be factored into credit scores. Griffin explained that while the service is designed to help consumers with thin credit files, even people with solid scores should consider signing up. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a regional bank fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Peter Kellner of Richmond Global Compass fund talks sustainable global investing, and Jason Herried of Johnson Financial Group makes his debut in the Market Call, talking stocks.
Ron Kaliebe, portfolio manager for the Mairs and Power Balanced Fund, said that the current interest rate environment globally is not normal, and that Corporate America has taken advantage of low rates and leveraged up, a strategy that could create trouble down the line, but not until or unless America gets caught in a global economic slowdown, which he does not foresee happening in the near future. Also on the show, Jake Falcon and David Hartness of HighTower Advisors discuss how planning customers need to know the inner workings of the firm they hire, Nicholas Jasinski of Barron's covers the latest 'Big Money' poll, and Josh Stewart of Seven Canyons Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.
Chuck celebrates the 7th anniversary of Money Life by talking with a new guest, Leigh Goehring of Goehring and Rozencwajg Associates, who says the commodities market is at the very bottom of the cycle, talking markets with return guest Talley Leger of OppenheimerFunds, who makes a case for investing in emerging markets, and for believing that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates for this year, and with Maura Cassidy of Fidelity Investments discussing the disconnect between how many Americans are confident about their current financial health compared to the number of people who are confident about their retirement future.
Ted Rossman of BankRate.com said that the millions of Americans who have little saved for retirement or emergencies also can't afford a summer vacation, citing new research showing that 39 million Americans simply can't afford a trip this summer. Rossman noted that more than one third of all workers will not just pass on the summer trip, but will fail to use their full vacation time this year. Also on the show, Dr. Rainer Zitelmann discusses his book on capitalism around the world, David Trainer puts two momentum stocks in the Danger Zone, and Lamar Villere of Villere and Co. covers stocks int he Market Call.
Joe Quinlan, chief market strategist for U.S. Trust, said that while the European Union has significant troubles, investors should not ignore it from either a political or an investment standpoint, noting that it is a place to find relative values right now, as well as a place that could trigger other issues with world markets. Also on the show, Ken Berman of Gorilla Trades said that the market's technicals are strong and looking like they can carry the bull run and recent rally further along for the remainder of the year, Jason Hargraves of InsuranceQuotes.com discussed how bundling strategies don't always save consumers as much as might be expected, and Chuck Carlson of The DRIP Investor talked stocks in the Market Call.
David Dali, portfolio strategist at Matthews Asia, said that while the domestic stock market has gotten the attention for the strong rebound it had to start the year, emerging markets have been strong and have a solid economic underpinning to make them a good diversifier to U.S. markets that may be nearing the end of their long rally. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com puts a specialty fund back in the picture as 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck talks about the quiet end of the Wintergreen Fund, and Oliver Pursche of Bruderman Asset Management covers stocks in the Market Call.
Scott Opsal, director of research at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, said that his firm's measure of the market and its potential direction is, for the first time, dead neutral and not leaning in any way, but he noted that 'It's a good period for the business world' and there's not much out there that would bring the market down for any significant length of time. Thus, despite having no inkling about where the market might go next, Opsal believes the long-term direction remains up. Also on the show, Peter Land and Ruth Gretz of HighTower Advisors discuss the non-financial elements of long-term planning, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com talks about the taboo subject of debt, and Todd Rosenbluth of CFRA Research covers funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Toni Turner of Trendstar said the market has been sideways and low on volumes as it waits for second-quarter results from the biggest names in stocks. But with the FANG stocks set to report this week, she thinks the market is due for a big move that should carry it to new highs, she warned that the Russell 2000 is not confirming the signals of other indexes which could keep the benchmarks range-bound a little longer. Also on the show, Chuck discusses a recent column, John Moninger of Eaton Vance covers thei firm's latest survey on the issues that are top-of-mind with financial advisers, and Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors covers ETFs in the Market Call
David Trainer, president of New Constructs, put the Uber initial public offering in the 'Danger Zone,' calling the new offering a scam and saying that the company's growth projections are fictitious. He noted that Uber's projections would have it capturing 15 percent of all global economic activity,while the company is 'losing absurd amounts of money ... without any path to profitability.' Also on the show, University of Maryland professor Russ Wermers discusses the importance of active managers in maintaining an efficient market, and Jack Bowers of the Fidelity Monitor and Insight newsletter talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Danielle Shay, director of options at SimplerTrading.com, said the market is in 'Hurry up and wait mode' over next week's release of earnings for the FANG stocks plus Microsoft, noting that she expects the flat market to break out once those big names release their numbers. That breakout could lead to new highs, but Shay said she expects the market to settle and re-test lows before really moving on later in the year. Also on the show, Michael Campagna of Moerus Capital Management talks value investing around the world in current market conditions, Rob Scheinerman of AIG Retirement Services covers new data on consumers planning to live and make their finances last to age 100, and Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in the Market Call.
Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made the ProShares Pet Care ETF ($PAWZ) his ETF of the Week, noting that the new, specialty niche fund is tapping into a growth industry that should be unaffected by the market and the economy. He did recommend using a trend-following strategy with the fnud. Also on the show, Harvard University professor Mihir Desai discussed how finances work, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureau covered travel scams ahead of the summer vacation efforts, and we rebroadcast a recent Market Call interview with Simon Lack of SL Advisors.
Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made the ProShares Pet Care ETF ($PAWZ) his ETF of the Week, noting that the new, specialty niche fund is tapping into a growth industry that should be unaffected by the market and the economy. He did recommend using a trend-following strategy with the fnud. Also on the show, Harvard University professor Mihir Desai discussed how finances work, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureau covered travel scams ahead of the summer vacation efforts, and we rebroadcast a recent Market Call interview with Simon Lack of SL Advisors.
Jonathan Clements, editor of HumbleDollar.com, talked about the lessons he has learned from the five market crashes he has lived through, most notably the 30-year crash in Japan that forever changed how he invests so that no matter what the next big downturn looks like, he is prepared to get through it. Also on the show, Ruth Gretz and Peter Lang of HighTower Advisors discuss the importance of correctly setting up beneficiary designations, Mike Foy of J.D. Power discusses his firm's most recent survey of self-directed investors, and James Abate of the Centre Funds talks infrastructure stocks in the Market Call
Bill Stone, chiefinvestment officer at Avalon Advisors in Houston, said that the frothy sentiment visible on the market now makes a decline seem likely in the near term, but noted that there is plenty of reason for longer-term optimism, including that earnings globally will begin to pick up. Also on the show, author Hugo Munier discusses his months spent as a WalMart employee, Amanda Dixon of Bankrate.com discusses how finances are changing the dating world, and Chuck answers a question on paying down credit-card debt
David Trainer of New Constructs warned in the Danger Zone segment that investors who rely on enterprise value-to-EBITDA as a measure of how cheap a stock is can be easily mislead, and he used ADT Corp. as an example, showing how the stock looks cheap but is actually overpriced. He also showed that Kilberly Clark had the opposite situation, with ratios suggesting it was overpriced but underlying fundamentals that make it cheap. Also on the show, Kelly Anne Smith on BankRate.com's latest survey, Sal Gilbertie of Teucrium Trading talking commodity investing, and John Barr of Needham Growth Fund with the Market Call.
Chris Maxey, director of research at Bronfman Rothschild, said that everything on the stock market looks to have moved back toward average, to where the market is neither over- nor under-valued, making it a good time for investors to rebalance portfolios back to target allocations, and to temper their expectations until it shows more strength or weakness later this year. Also on the show, Chris Horymski of MagnifyMoney.com talks about the record credit-card debt in America, Chuck answers an audience question about a Twitter campaign that has been smearing him, and, in a rebroadcast, Bob Auer of the Auer Growth Fund has the Market Call.
Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund, said in the Market Call that the market decline of last year barely registered on stock valuations -- it only moved one security to where he would buy it using his absolute-value methodology -- and that the pricing and profits picture will have to change before there's real value for sale in the market. Frank's fund -- which topped the performance charts for his peer group during the late-2018 decline -- is roughly 80 percent in cash. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a commodity ETF his 'ETF of the Week,' Glenn Williams of Primerica discusses his company's latest survey of investors, and Kim Catechis of Martin Currie talks emerging-markets investing.
Lou Harvey, president of Dalbar Inc. discussed his firm's latest survey showing that the moves investors make ultimately put them behind the market and the funds they own, noting that the problem was particularly acute in 2018 when a market downturn shaved more than 4 percent off the Standard and Poor's 500 but took more than twice that amount out of the portfolio of the average investor who made moves hoping to avoid potential losses. Also on the show, Peter Lang and Jeffrey Corliss of HighTower Advisors discuss longevity planning and financial stress tests, Eric Satz of AltoIRA discusses the use of alternative investments in retirement-savings vehicles, and Stuart Ritter of T. Rowe Price covers the surprising savings habits of gig-economy workers.
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, said he is bullish for the remainder of 2019, despite believing the market is due for a brief correction. With no major downturn in the offing this year, Hirsch said he would wait through the downturn he sees coming late in the third quarter and to expect a fourth-quarter rally. While he expects that late ounce to be a buying opportunity, Hirsch warned that election years have become market battlegrounds, so 2020 could be where the market gets ugly. Also on the shhow, Keshav Rajagopalan of PGIM Investments talks active ETFs, David Kushner discusses his fascinating new book 'The Player's Ball,' and John Bartlett of Reaves Asset Management discusses energy and utility stocks.
Tom McInyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn, said in the Market Call that the market is set up for a mixed bag of results in the just-started earnings season, an environment that she thinks will create the chance for opportunistic buying, especially in the energy sector. Also on the show, Chuck talks financial literacy and education with Brian Portnoy of Magnetar Capital, Sam McBride of New Constructs puts a popular stock in the Danger Zone, and Chuck covers the latest Weird Financial News.
William Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird, said that technical analysis shows slowing action and suffering small-cap stocks even as the market itself nears new highs. He said if the market can't break through to new highs and confirm the bull market, it would raise a red flag that he expects would lead to a temporary setback. Also on the show, Ben Phillips of EventShares discusses investing based on government policies, Mark Hamrick of BankRate.com discusses the outlook around today's jobs report, and Simon Lack of the American Energy Independence fund talks energy stocks in the Market Call.
John Bellows, portfolio manager for Western Asset Management, says that he believes the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates for 2019, and the market -- while not likely to continue its torrid first-quarter growth path -- is poised to avoid significant meltdowns this year. Unlike Will Nasgovitz --The Big Interview from Wednesday's show -- Bellows doesnot see corporate debt growing dangerously on balance sheets, but he did say the bond market needs continued growth in order to stabilize. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com has the 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck answers a follow-up questions on credit-card use, and Elliott Gue of Energy and Income Advisor has the Market Call.
Will Nasgovitz, chief executive at Heartland Advisors, said that he sees trouble ahead for companies carrying a lot of corporate debt, especially as the market cycle changes. Still, he is not expecting the long wave of stock buybacks -- which added to corporate debt in many cases -- to trigger some type of massive market sell-off. Also on the show, the gang from HighTower Advisors -- Ray Baraldi, Jimmy Hausberg and Jeff Kelly -- discusses the proper use of strategically active ETFs, Josh Franzel of the Center for State and Local Government talks about employee participation in retirement plans, and Bob Auer of Auer Growth Fund has the Market Call.
Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report said he expects to see some pain in the summer and fall as we did near the end of last year. He noted that the markets are up double-digits after one quarter, but that no one should expect that kind of quarterly performance to be repeated without big downdrafts to even things out. Also on the show, Chuck talks his recent foray to a free-dinner seminar, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.cmo looks at the new Apple credit card, and John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors has the Market Call.
David Trainer of New Constructs put 'growth investors' in the Danger Zone, saying that the expected slowdown in earnings growth -- which he expects to become evident when first-quarter earnings are announced -- should send growth stocks for a tumble. He singled out United Technologies as an example of a company whose stock is likely to crater when the market realizes the growth outlook is less rosy than currently assumed. Also on the show, Chris Larkin of E*Trade returns to help Chuck answer an audience member's question, Mark Riepe of the Schwab Center for Financial Research discusses behavioral mistakes common to many investors, and more.
Dan Kemp, chief investment officer for Europe, the Middle East and Africa for Morningstar Investment Management, said investors should beware of vivid, attention-grabbing forecasts because the ingredients that get your attention are not necessarily the most valid when it comes to the market. He noted that boring forecasts about the future looking mostly like the past tend to be more accurate. Also on the show, Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel said he expects the stock market to be flat to slightly down during the summer before going on a run, meaning that any near-term pullbacks should be buying opportunities. Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investment Management discusses his recent research showing that most Bitcoin trading statistics are wildly fake, with 85 percent of reported trades not being real, and Ernie Cecilia of Bryn Mawr Trust Co. talks stocks and ETFs in the Market Call
Chris Larkin, senior vice president at E*Trade said in The Big Interview that while the market appears to be slowing and many experts are talking about the potential for a recession, the market looks like it can continue to push forward for a while. Just the same, he suggested that investors want to adjust their strategies to accept heightened volatility and slower growth. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a short-term bond fund his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener question about the right number of credit cards to have, and Stephen Yacktman of the Yacktman Funds talks stocks in the Market Call.
College professor and author Robin Feldman said that secret deals and strategies used by the drug industry has medicine costs rising even when they shouldn't be. The system, she explained, favors higher-cost drugs at the expense of more-affordable care. Also on the show, the gang from HighTower Advisors -- Jimmy Hausburg, Jeff Kelly and Ray Baraldi this week -- identify the emerging industries they are most intrigued by now, and Ryan Jacob of the Jacob funds has the Market Call.
Jeff Bishop of RagingBull.com and WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com, said that he is looking to trade the downside and bet against the big gainers of the market's recent rally because he believes the market has topped out for a while. Bishop noted that he expects a choppy sideways market through much of earnings season, followed by a downward trend as earnings numbers reveal slow or declining growth. YAlso on the show, Mike Foy on J.D. Power's latest full-service investor survey, author Doug Lynam on his journey from monk to money manager, and Kiplinger's columnist Steve Goldberg of TG Investing, talking funds in the Market Call.
Sam McBride, analyst at New Constructs, put TrueCar Inc. in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock had been there in 2017, and it lost roughly 60 percent of its value thereafter. That doensturn hasn't made the stock look better, McBride noted, and he made a strong case for hy the stock is still significantly overpriced. Also on the show, Thomas O'Shuaghnessey of Clever Real Estate discusses his firm's survey of thousands of credit-card users, Richard Smith of TradeMmith talks trading today, and Jeffrey DeMaso, director of research at Adviser investments, has the Market Call
Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios said he expects the market to reach a near-term high -- propelled by a window-dressing rally as fund managers try to make their portfolios look like winners with moves at the end of the first quarter -- but that the optimism that comes with that move will also bring about the rally's end and lead to a modest pullback. After that, he believes the market's direction is likely to be determined by the outcome of trade concerns in China, Europe, and England. Also on the show, Brett Arends of MarketWatch.com discusses a study which shows that the music you listen to while making investment decisions could impact how well you do in the market, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses how heavy lifting in your job could impact your ability to retire comfortably, and we rebroadcast a recent interview with Mike Liss of American Century Value.
Stan Haithcock, also known as 'Stan the Annuity Man,' said investors should be wary of sales pitches for indexed annuities, which are advertised nationally but regulated by states, leaving consumers hearing 'potential, hypothetical, theoretical back-tested, hopeful, non-guaranteed, agent-created return scenarios' about products likely to disappoint in the long run. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an emerging-markets bond fund his ETF of the Week, Greg McBride discusses the Fed's Wednesday meeting and what it means for the market and economy for the rest of the year, and we rebroadcast a recent interview with Brian Beitner of Chatauqua Capital Management.
David Jilek, chief investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, said that bonds may not be the best way for investors to reduce risk in the current market, given where we are in the interest-rate cycle. Also on the show, Jeff Kelly, Jimmy Hausberg and Ray Baraldi of HighTower Advisors discuss whether investors should have long-term bonds in their portfolios now, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com talks about the best frequent-flier programs, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds has the Market Call.
Rich Guerrini, chief executive officer at PNC Investments, said that investors should recognize that they are nearing the end of a growth cycle -- though he does not expect that cycle to end until 2020 or later -- and that there is real risk behind current events, but he warned against being spooked out of the market when prospects the economy remain solid. Also on the show, Chuck answers an audience question about the 'Rule of 100,' Karen Arth of Key Bank discusses family dynamics in estate planning and Ian Mortimer of the Guiness Atkinson Global Innovators fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management said that the market has plenty of current opportunities, but investors will be better served being selective and picking specific securities rather than buying indexes, noting that the market tends to 'take the escalator up, but the elevator down' meaning there could be significant bumps in the road ahead. Also on the show, Leonard Wright of the AICPA discusses retirees' most significant worries, author and financial adviser Eddie Ghabour talks about what it means to be a 'Common-Sense Bull' in this market, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses why companies reaching for certain balance-sheet results are creating a dangerous false narrative.
John Waggoner, senior associate editor at Kiplinger's Personal Finance, discussed his research looking at how mutual funds performed during the market's late 2018 downturn and the snap-back rally in January and said that the market's 10-year-long rally gives investors few chances to see how a fund will perform in a downturn, making the recent experience relevant and important for investors worried about how their funds will weather future storms. Also on the show, Ken Schapiro of The Robo Report discussed the performance of robo-advisors over the last decade, author Niall Gannon discussed 'Tailered Wealth Management,' and Fidelity's Keith Bernhardt talked about required minimum distributions from retirement accounts.
Joe Davis, global chief economist at The Vanguard Group, said that despite significant headline risks, and slower rates of growth, the economy keeps chugging along and the stock market should mostly be moving forward with it. Davis said he entered the year with the Fed and interest rates as the top risk facing the market and he said much of that concern has been abated; trade issues -- his second-biggest concern -- are now the top worry. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com has the ETF of the Week, author Pat Garofalo discusses his book 'The Billionaire Boondoggle," and Fidelity's Begonya Klumb discusses health-savings accounts.
Brian Beitner, portfolio manager of the Chautauqua International Growth Fund, said that trade wars with China have caused both sides to advance purchases in order to avoid tariffs, which could result in a purchasing slowdown soon, which could trigger a technical recession, not enough to result in massive layoffs but enough to send shock waves through the equity markets. Beitner said the case for international investing -- especially in China -- remains strong, despite the dangers. Also on the show, Peter Lang and Michael Sheldon of HighTower Advisors revisit a classic and discuss active versus passive management styles, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com covers a recent survey on which type of rewards consumers prefer, and Leah Bennett of Westwood Wealth Group talks stocks in the Market Call.
Brian Beitner, portfolio manager of the Chautauqua International Growth Fund, said that trade wars with China have caused both sides to advance purchases in order to avoid tariffs, which could result in a purchasing slowdown soon, which could trigger a technical recession, not enough to result in massive layoffs but enough to send shock waves through the equity markets. Beitner said the case for international investing -- especially in China -- remains strong, despite the dangers. Also on the show, Peter Lang and Michael Sheldon of HighTower Advisors revisit a classic and discuss active versus passive management styles, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com covers a recent survey on which type of rewards consumers prefer, and Leah Bennett of Westwood Wealth Group talks stocks in the Market Call.
Giorgio Caputo, head of multi-asset strategies at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, said that the equity market is acting like the economy is strong and can keep rolling, while the bond market is nervous that trouble is mounting, leaving the Federal Reserve and its rate strategy as what may be the primary determinant of how the market goes for the rest of the year. Also on the show, Deborah Kearns of BankRate.com discusses a survey showing that homeowners often have buyer's remorse about their home, Zach Jonson of Stack Financial Management looks at the market's technicals and sees a bull with room to run for a bit longer, and Manny Weintraub of Integre Asset Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
John Blank, chief equity strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research said investors should expect surprise rallies and retracements, but the market isn't going to make a strong bull move until August or later. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discussed their recent survey on how many Americans expect to miss a credit-card payment this year, David Trainer of New Constructs talked about the Lyft initial public offering and why the company -- with virtually no prospect for earnings -- is a trap. Also, Greg Woodard, portfolio strategist for Manning and Napier talks stocks in the Market Call.
In a day filled with talk about the market, Axel Merk of the Merk Funds said the market is getting late in its current cycle and that it is likely to have a tougher tmie making gains going forward. He suggested that investors rebalance their portfolios to lock in gains and reposition themselves for the tougher sledding to come. Before that, however, Matt Harris of HighTower Wealth Management noted that the market's technical signals are suggesting that a slowdown is coming, but he said the catalyst for real trouble is not yet visible. And Avi Gilburt of Elliot Wave Trader said he expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to test recent resistance levels of 2,600 and to go as low as 2,200 if it breaks through, yet he is also forecasting a snap-back rally that will take the index to 3,200 -- and as high as 4,100 -- by 2022-23. Also, Chuck discusses the 10-year anniversary of the start of the bull market and what it means for investors.
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management said that while domestic markets look like they can continue to run, valuations are stretched, making emerging markets and gold much more appealing right now. Folts noted that he is completely avoiding Europe and Japan right now and noted that economic and market conditions going forward will depend on the skill of the Federal Reserve in avoiding trouble. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talks financial technology with his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com talked about the regrets many people have over how student-loan debt affects their lives, and Mike Liss of the American Century Value fund has the Market Call.
Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds, said that the global economy and global growth are softening, but the policy framework is holding strong, allowing the markets to move forward and stay positive for the long-term. Memani said he believes the Fed is done with rate hikes for the year, and noted that the recent rally may have been overdone, meaning that stocks could tread water for awhile before continuing to climb. Also on the show, Michael Sheldon and Peter Lang of HighTower Advisors discuss their concerns for the rest of the year, Terry Jones of Investors' Business Daily discusses the bounce-back in optimism among investors, and value manager Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund has the Market Call.
Dan Zanger, chief technical analyst at ChartPattern.com said that the market is likely to chop sideways -- stuck between the 2,650 support and 2,810 resistance levels on the Standard and Poor's 500 -- until we see the direction of the next quarter's earnings releases, which start coming out in mid- to late April. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discussed the top hedge-fund stocks from 2018, author Nathan Latka talked about his ideas for getting rich even if you lack capital, and we re-broadcast a recent Market Call interview with George Putnam III of The Turnaround Letter.
After watching Warren Buffett apologize for taking a $20 billion write-down for Berkshire Hathaway's investment ni Kraft Heinz, David Trainer of New Constructs said the problem highlights trouble ahead for value investors, who he says have been looking at the wrong metrics and following the pack, which has them headed for trouble. Also on the show, Brandon Thurber of Regions Asset Management said that the market is going through a 'pro-risk on environment for equities, at least for now.' while Rosanna Landis Weaver of As You Sow discussed her group's list of the 100 Most Overpaid CEOs for 2019, with Rob Lutts of Cabot Wealth Management in for the Market Call.
Neal Dwane, global strategist at Allianze Global Investments, said he believes current market optimism over trade issues with China may be misplaced, noting that the excessive optimism could bring an end to recent relief rallies, and he noted that the bigger potential for trouble lies in a potential global debt crisis where central banks have taken on so much debt that they can't buy more, making it hard for the Federal Reserve to raise rates without tanking the market and the economy. Also on the show, tax litigator Dan Pilla discusses why IRS refunds are down so far this year and if that's a bad sign, we rebroadcast a recent chat with Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, and Eric Ervin of Blockforce Capital talks dividend stocks in the Market Call.
Bill Nygren, legendary manager of the Oakmark Fund, discussed how the disappointment of the market late in 2018 actually was a great time for investors like him who want to buy businesses with solid long-term prospects at reasonable prices. With prices falling but earnings staying high, Nygren said investors could take advantage of the market becoming disconnected from its fundamentals. Currently, he likes financial stocks, consumer durables like automotive and industrial companies, and he's sour on supposedly safer investments like utilities, which he says are fully valued. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com had volatility on his mind with the ETF of the Week Economy, and David Brown of Sabrient Systems talked about his firm's latest Baker's Dozen of stocks in the Market Call
Jeff Weniger, director of asset allocation at WisdomTree Asset Management, said that investors should be looking beyond trade wars and Brexit to what's really going to move markets, and noted that he expects emerging markets to outperform and Europe to underperform once the headlines get past current concerns. Also on the show, Michael Sheldon and Peter Lang of HighTower Advisors discuss -- and disagree on -- the parts of the market they like and worry about now. Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com looks at a survey which shows more debt problems for average Americans, and Mark Salzinger of The No-Load Fund Investor talks mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Scott Colyer, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management, has long advocated that investors avoid fighting the Fed, but right now he suggested that they continue riding earnings trends higher, even as they become wary of a building recession. Colyer noted that investors should be looking to miss a recession, which he sees coming but potentially not for a year or more. Also on the show, aauthor Bart McDonough discusses cyber security and how consumers can better protect themselves, and Martin Leclerc of Barrack Yard Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial, said the housing market is under-built and the lack of inventory has made the market overly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, a trend he expects to continue at least through the end of the current rate-hike cycle. Also on the show, Matt Schultz discusses the latest survey from CompareCards.com, David Trainer puts two big-name stocks in the Danger Zone, and Noland Langford of Left Brain Capital Management has the Market Call.
Ron Sanchez of Fiduciary Trust Co. International said that investors have gotten past the confidence-shaking drop of December, but they should be cautious now because stories about global growth, interest rates and international trade events will go a long way to determining whether the market can continue climbing this year. Also on the show, Michael Gayed of Pension Partners said that the market's technicals also should put investors into wait-and-see mode, as they suggest that stocks are overbought and awaiting a catalyst before a downturn. Thomas Winmill of the Midas Fund talked about gold and precious metals investing -- also fitting into the theme of uncertain times -- and Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discussed a recent survey which showed that 74 million Americans have more in credit-card debt than in emergency savings.
Brian Singer, head of the dynamic allocation strategies team at William Blair Co., said that fundamentals are going to re-assert themselves on asset prices, noting that when central banks around the world are tightening, value tends to be in favor. Singer also said that emerging markets are perhaps the best value and have the most potential return right now, and urged investors to consider emerging-markets equity. That was directly on point with the ETF of the Week, where Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picked a specialized emerging-markets fund -- the XSOE -- because it is trending now. Also on the show, Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investments discussed JP Morgan's plan to introduce its own cryptocurrency, and George Putnam III of The Turnaround Letter talked stocks in the Market Call.
David Goerz, chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, said he does not like the looks of China and emerging markets, prefers small-cap domestic stocks and cyclical sectors like industrials and financials as he sees a market with the potential to add a few more percentage points to the upside over the rest of the year. Unlike most recent Big Interview guests, Goerz still sees the Fed raising rates three times this year. Also on the show, Richard Lewis and Jeremiah Riethmiller of HighTower Advisors discuss connecting with clients through social media, Chuck talks about President Trump's contention that the market would have lost nearly half its value if the opposition had been elected in 2016, and Dan Brady of Trendrating.com talks stocks in the Market Call.
James Hickey, chief investment strategist at H.D. Vest Financial Services said that the strong gains realized by the market in January are likely to be what investors experience for the year. While anticipating a flat market for the rest of 2019, Hickey said he does expect some volatility to make things look better or worse throughout, and he ntoed that he is tilting his portfolios toward small-cap stocks, and avoiding Europe and cutting back on emerging markets investments. Also on the show, a rebroadcast of a recent interview with Brent Schutte from Northwestern Mutual, and the Market Call with Jim Lowell, editor of The Fidelity Investor and Fidelity Sector Investor newsletters.
Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Asset Management, said in the Market Call that while he is nto expecting a bear market in short order, he does see trouble ahead for the domestic markets, noting that his metrics show large-cap stocks as being 84 percent overvalued. With that in mind, he expects 'bad things to happen' domestically, even as he finds some global valuations appealing. Also ont eh show, Jason Reposa of MyBankTracker.com discusses America's problem with car-loan delinquiencies, Trevor Neilson of i(x) Investments talks about a new type of social and impact investing, and David Trainer covers companies with misleading returns on invested capital in the Danger Zone.
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon said in the Big Interview that between tariff problems and economic issues in Europe, investors must wait for the second half of the year for solid growth. That said, economic growth will be sufficient to avoid recession but not enough to satisfy investors who want to see more global expansion. Also, Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors suggested that investors should be long in stocks, while expecting a bear market to arrive in six to nine months, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel discussed large-cap growth investments in the Market Call.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that his rcession-probability model is showing a 20 percent chance of an economic downturn this year, but that investors should expect a recession in 2020 or '21, noting that while it should be a 'garden-variety recession,' the situation with the Fed could make any meltdown much worse. Also, economist Edward Goldberg of NYU said that American and China are coming to a truce -- and not a win or a loss -- in the trade wars, Tom Lydon looked at an emerging-markets ETF as his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck answered an question from an audience member.
After a superior 2017 and a dismal 2018, the outlook for emerging markets stocks and bonds is changing again and Richard Lewis from the Nulman Group did not like the looks of those markets while his HighTower Advisors colleague Jeremiah Reithmiller of Sarian Strategic Partners was much more optimistic about the prospects for companies based in developing nations. Also on the show, author Larry Swedroe discusses his new book on a successful retirement, Coryanne Hicks of U.S. News and World Report discusses the latest battle in the ETF pricking wars, and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Michael Kagan, portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments, said that the United States economy -- unlike some around the world -- is looking strong right now; compared to relevant periods in history, he said Americans are likely to avoid a recession for several years. That said, he noted in the Market Call interview that he would be selling any stock that is not producing profits in these market conditions. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal made a banking company his 'Stock of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discussed his site's latest survey and author Tanja Hester discussed her new book on retiring very early -- potentially decades ahead of retirement age -- and not running out of money.
David Dowden, portfolio manager at MacKay Municipal Managers, said he expects the Federal Reserve to do one more rate hike -- during the first half of the year, or earlier than many other observers expect -- but he said that the bond market holds a lot of challenges for investors, like an abundance of muni-bond options that are creating a buying opportunity while alos potentially creating value traps. Also on the show, Kelly Anne Smith of BankRate.com discussed how much money people expect to spend for Valentine's Day, Marc Schneider of Zebit.com discussed how his unique shopping site -- which charges no interest and no late fees on payments -- actually works, and David Trainer of New Constructs put a mutual fund in the 'Danger Zone.'
In his first appearance on the show in more than two years, Brian Yacktman of YCG Enhanced Fund discussed how enduring pricing power and industry leadership and innovation makes for stocks that investors that can deliver superior long-term results in all market conditions, and he singled out a few stocks that make the grade in the Market Call. Also on teh show, we rebroadcast a recent interview with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory, Dick Burns of the NHP Foundation discusses seniors' financial fears and Chuck takes a long lottery-filled journey through the weird financial news
Warren Pierson, senior portfolio manager at the Baird Funds, said the markets currently are re-calibrating after the December fall and the January rebound, getting used to more reasonable levels of growth in both earnings and gross domestic product. The result should be market that sustains a slow-but-steady positive course for 2019. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an emerging-markets bond fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Chuck discusses how investors need both an iron will and iron stomach to ride out current market times, and Bernie Horn of the Polaris Global Value Fund has the Market Call.
David Marcus of Evermore Global Advisors said investors need to be pruning and enhancing their portfolio during times like these -- when markets are shifting and corporate fortunes are changing quickly -- to maintain a portfolio of investments they love, rather than settling just for things they like. Owning investments you love lets you stick with them through tough times in the market. Also on the show, Terry Jones of Investor's Business Daily discusses investors' flagging level of optimism, we rebroadcast a recent Collective Wisdom segment focused on market volatility and Chuck discusses what investors should remember about the reign of bond king Bill Gross, who just announced his impending retirement
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth management Co., said that while the market has plenty of reasons to get nervous, it also has plenty of impetus to move up throughout the year, largely due to strong underlying fundamentals. He also said that he expects emerging markets and large-cap domestic securities to outperform in the year ahead. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal is in a selling mood with his 'Stock of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses a recent survey covering how many credit-card customers expect to die with their debt still in place, and Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research at Morningstar Inc
David Trainer of New Constructs put three stocks -- Landec Corp., Brooks Automation, and Host Hotels and Resorts -- in the Danger Zone noting that all three had misleading price-earnings ratios that could lead investors to think the stocks were rising in value when in fact he feels their true worth is collapsing. Also on the show, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses American's financial security, we rebroadcast a recent chat on the market with Patrick O'Hare of Briefing.com, and Eric Marshall of the Hodges Funds has the Market Call.
Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, said in the Big Interview that he thinks the Fed may have overreacted to increased market volatility by signalling that it may put off further rate hikes. Now the market is reacting like they won't happen, which could lead to trouble later in the year when he thinks the central bank will resume its upward trend. Also on the show, comedian Gaby Dunn talks about her new book on being bad with money, Leonard Wright of the AICPA discusses Americans' level of personal financial satisfaction, and Chuck takes an audience question about target-date and life-cycle funds.
Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made the VanEck Vectors Semicnductor ETF his 'ETF of the Week,' noting that the industry has been on the rise and -- despite recently volatility caused by high-profile earnings misses this week -- remains a worthwhile play for as long as it stays above its long-term average. Also on the show, Dan Keady, chief financial planner at TIAA, discusses volatility, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com covers a survey on how Americans don't expect their finances to improve this year, and Brock Moseley of Miracle Mile Advisors talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Alan Levenson, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price & Associates, said in the Big Interview that while investors should not expect the big returns they have seen through much of the bull-market run, they also should not expect a recession. He noted that the poor end to 2018 was a downturn that occurred despite continued economic growth and said he does not expect market declines to be the dominant story for the year ahead. Also on the show, Greg McBride gives his take on the Fed meeting, Lauren Pearson and Jim Ewing of HighTower Advisors discuss better planning through technology, Mike Brown of LendEDU discusses complaints consumers have over cryptocurrencies and Garvin Jabusch of Green Alpha Advisors has the Market Call.
Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal made O'Reilly Automotive his 'Stock of the Week,' noting that the auo-parts supplier has outperformed 88 percent of all stocks over the last six months and saying that the momentum could easily propel the stock 20 percent higher in short order. Also on the show, author Conor Richardson of 'Millennial Money Makeover,' Ken Shreve of Investor's Business Daily looking at the market's technicals, and Patrick Healey of Caliber Financial Partners with the Market Call.
David Trainer of New Constructs hasn't liked Netflix (NFL) for a long time, but he put the stock back in the Danger Zone on Monday's show and said in the process that the shares -- currently trading for roughly $340 each -- could be worth as little as six dollars. Also on the show, ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses financial infidelity, author James Pattersenn talks about how he learned to trade like a stock market pro, and market pro Rich Moroney of Dow Theory Forecasts talked buys and sells ni the Market Call.
Jeremy Bryan, portfolio manager at Gradient Investments said in the Market Call that he's optimistic on both domestic and international stocks right now, noting that the economy continues to push forward, even if the pace has slowed. He's looking at consumer discretionary stocks and data-center REITs as sweet spots now. Also on the show, Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network discusses 'crash-test investing,' Chuck takes a question from an audience member whose family is affected financially by the government shutdown, and Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub discusses how close most Americans feel they are to maxing out their credit cards.
Rolf Agather, managing director of research for North America at FTSE Russell, said that small-cap stocks can give a portfolio a surprising dividend boost and pointed out how it was small-cap dividends that really helped preserve decent results for small-caps in 2018. Also on the show, tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a 'fallen angel' fund his 'ETF of the Week,' author Tony Steuer discusses financial readiness, and we rebroadcast a recent interview with emerging markets expert Andrew Foster of the Seafarer Funds
Lauren Pearson and Jim Ewing of HighTower Advisors discussed recent volatility and where it has created opportunity for investors, and both agreed that one spot for investors to consider now is cash, both because of rising rates but also to keep powder dry. international and emerging markets were among the other options discussed in the Collective Wisdom segment; also on the show, Ben Hunt of EpsilonTheory.com gives an interesting take on whether bad news is really good for the market, Hilary Kramer of High Octane Trader and Game Changer Stocks has the Market Call and more
Alan Gayle of Via Nova Investment Management said that he does not see any problem with the market reaching and eclipsing previous highs. with the Standard and Poor's 500 getting back to 2,900 sometime this year. Meanwhile, D.r. Barton Jr. of 10minutemillionaire.com said the market's current snap-back rally has the market moving sharply upward, 'but in a healthy fashion.' Also on the show,m Charles Rotbut of AAII Journal has his Stock of the Week and Tim Melvin of the Heatseeker newsletter talks stocks in the Market Call.
Chuck had a long history of writing about and talking with Jack Bogle. In fact, when Bogle entered the hospital in December, he had planned to talk with Chuck in mid-January when he came out and got back to work. Instead, the founder of the Vanguard Group and the man behind index investing took a turn for the worst and died at age 89 on Jan. 16. In this special Martin Luther King Day tribute to Bogle, Chuck talks about his time spent with Bogle, reminisces with Matt Fink -- the longtime leader of the mutual fund industry's primary trade association -- and rebroadcasts Jack Bogle's last appearances on the show, from Jan. 8-9, 2018.
Patrick O'Hare, chief market strategist at Briefing.com, said that investors have a ice opportunity to put some money to work based on how everyone was getting panicky over recession talk at the end of last year. He believes the market was overly negative, which has created opportunity, though he thinks gains will be muted and market action will be choppy. Also on the show, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses why most people would rather lose debt than lose weight this year, Chuck answers an audience question, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks stocks in the Market Call
Jack Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group and the patron saint for small investors died at age 89 on Wednesday, and Chuck took time from the show to remember Bogle. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com talked emerging markets with the 'Etf of the Week,' Terry Jones of Investor's Business Daily discussed investor optimism, and Samuel Lee of SVRN Asset Management talked about ETFs in the Market Call.
David Payne, staff economist at Kiplinger.com, said that the economic underpinnings remain solid and strong, but aren't 'amazing,' which should lead to a year of heightened volatility and muted market returns. He noted that the market now seems to expect the Federal Reserve to be done with rate hikes at least until very late int he year. Also on the show, Bill Thrush, Richard Lewis and Ray Baraldi of HighTower Advisors discuss how they help consumers set appropriate expectations, Jason Reposa of MyBankTracker.com talks about what people affected by the government shutdown can do to get some assistance and relief frmo creditors, and Scott Klimo of Saturna Capital and the Amana Funds has the Market Call.
Technical analyst Michael Sincere said current market conditions have confused traders and made investors nervous and have made this one of the toughest markets he has ever seen. He's mostly defensive right now, watching the Standard and Poor's 500 and its behavior around the 2,600 level. Also ont he show, Charles Rotblut of AAII Journal reviews some of the sells he made in his 'Stock of the Week' feature during 2018, Everett Millman of Gainesville Coins talks gold, and Scott Ganschow, featured investor at NetVest, has the Market Call.
Andrew Foster, portfolio manager at the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund, said he expects 2019 to be better for emerging markets than last year was, but warned that it won't be a great year, just better than the recent past. More importantly, with emerging markets coming back, he expects them to deliver the diversification benefits that they mostly have fallen short of in recent years. Also on the show, Gerg McBride of BankRate.com discusses they pay raises workers are expecting -- or not -- for the year ahead, David Trainer of New Constructs reviews his top Danger Zone picks from 2018, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds has the Market Call.