Economy Guy: Recent Episodes
Tom Harvey
Learn the Macro economic forces shaping our world today. What are the upsides and risks that you can deal with in a very confusing economic world? Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/tom-harvey6/support
The CPI came in at 5.4%, and that is inflationary. The US Treasury bonds are decreasing in interest rates, and that is deflationary. The market is at an all time peak, and if it cracks, it is deflationary. What is going on? How can we have inflation (and we all feel that inflation at the stores we shop in) and deflation at the same time? Well today its inflation, and tomorrow (sometime) it will be deflation. But when? No one can tell you.
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Where did the term "TINA" come from? And, how is it being used today in the financial markets? The bond market is rising - so what does this very significant move mean? How is President Putin upsetting the French today - and why is the EU toothless in protecting the French?
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In the strong US economy, there exist a few cracks and worries. MMT is one of them as money printing does not create wealth, nor does it drive the economy. No one is talking about Credit Default Swaps, but what if? Buffett makes it clear that the US Government and FED are allowing leveraged speculation, but didn't previously. Why?
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The 7 rules to follow when picking growth stocks in the markets by the founder of Investor Business Daily, the best financial newspaper on the planet. What lessons can we learn from the history of margin debt in the markets? What rumors are going around the FED today about a rate rise sooner than the Chairman stated?
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The FEDs are now thinking about raising interest rates in 2023, rather than 2024. And, they think that inflation may average out at 3.4%, and not 2/0%. That is amazing and confusing and real.
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The CPI came in at 5.0% for May, but this didn't push the markets as one would predict. The US Housing Market has a new buying organization pushing prices up. A banker's banker is predicting inflation, followed by deflation, followed by BIG inflation.
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There is a revolution coming to the Bullion Banks who control the price of gold today. It is called the Basel III Agreement. This is only positive for the price of gold in the future. Some top economists think a great deflationary depression is heading our way, and I explain their thinking - so you can decide for yourself. Isreal has a new government - so what changes are coming?
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Why is the FED still pumping money into the US economy when the GDP (the whole economy) has recovered from Covid? Why is the FED holding interest rates down - both FED Funds rate and mortgage rates? IS Europe moving right? Why did foreigners see $1% worth of US Treasuries last year, and what does that mean for the future?
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The French are in a bit of turmoil as their election next year approaches - and this is explained. Gold was the best market this last week, and it is showing. The FED has the back of the stock market - right? What happens if you are wrong? The National debt can swamp the US economy permanently - see why. When is a good time to sell gold? This is explained.
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Both the CPI and wages are going up, and going up strongly. I think inflation is not only in our future, but is here today. Why are we having a shooting war in Gaza right now, and what is China thinking about Taiwan? We now have a RED indicator as one of our six precursors to a market crash - and it is CPI (Consumer Price Index).
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Shrinking? How can that be? Ask the millennial who are postponing their child production years. Europe is getting ready for elections and everything is up for sale - Scotland nearly missed another independence election call. Will N Ireland follow Scotland? France is up for grabs in next year's election. Spain has just opened up, and everyone is partying.
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The markets basically went sideways last week, and politics ruled the world. In France, the French military warned the French government to get their act together and solve the problems of the country (or else!!!) China is explained as the most dangerous country in the world today, and why.
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The US 10 Year Treasury is at a critical technical position right now and will either rebound (higher interest rate), or fall to lower interest rates. The former is probable. The US Dollar fell against most currencies about 1% and represents a major move this last week. Will the US Dollar continue falling now that it has tested recent high values? Transitory Inflation is discussed in depth - so the influence of future inflation is more fully understandable.
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The CPI came in greater than anyone expected. This week I explore the meaning of inflation to stocks and bonds. I look at the definition of inflation, and try to bet a good gut understanding of inflation - so you can make sense of it in the future. A hypothetical example of the company, DolarTree, is used to show the effect inflation can have on a company. (How about you personally?) The FED's mindset abut inflation is explained - and questioned.
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The war drums are beating in Ukraine. Will Russia or China take advantage of the turmoil in the world? How much electricity is Bitcoin costing the world today - and every day? What lessons can we learn from the Archegos disaster - and how was this allowed to happen? Could it have taken down the banking system?
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Happy Easter. It was a sideways market most places last week. The US economy is strong and getting stronger as the economy opens up. Many technologies will change the face of the world and fortunes will be made in them.
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Several housing tidbits were covered in the US housing market this week. A large cargo ship has blocked the Suez Canal - so what? What shares should you buy, and do you know how to analyze them? How much debt is too much debt? How much is the current US administration planning on spending - and is it more than the total wwII debt?
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Crises are upon us around the world - hyperinflation in Lebanon, nuclear warhead count in the UK, pandemic numbers in Europe, and (not the least) FED predictions of the future. I give a lesson in "compound interest." Warren Buffett gives his wisdom about the markets today and the poor state of retirees. Ray Dalio gives his concern about the $75T US debt market.
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A big change in the mortgage market will affect the mortgage rate second home and vacation home rates. How does the gold market work - here is my own ideas after decades of observations. Does the FED use bad data to determine inflation? Is better data available, but won't be used due to human frailties? What does the ever increasing 10 Year Treasury rate mean for you?
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A unique perspective of the influence of the 10 Year Treasury Bond yield on ALL other markets is presented. The market action for the week was reviewed. Many interesting tidbits in the economic news were reviewed including the massive outflow of Euros from Germany caused by negative interest rates. FIVE broken system used within the US economic system were highlighted. And the 6 precursors to a stock market crash were reviewed.
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The 10 Year Treasury bond is rising rapidly in its interest rate. This means the US Government must pay more interest on its newly created bonds. Housing mortgage rates are rising slowly, and are expected to rise more rapidly. What can the FED do to keep the rising interest rates from causing a stock market crash?
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Several new indications of the US stock market being way too high were reviewed. The US markets review showed the importance of the changes in the US 10 Year Treasury Bond. An Option Hedge strategy was reviewed to protect yourself from a market crash. A new indication of using the High Year Bond value as a precursor was reviewed.
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I review some interesting international movements and review the markets and economic measures in the USA. I review what true market experts are using to measure the "exuberance" of the market today. Do you use any of these measures? Perhaps you should.
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Gamestop lost most of its value, but is still elevated above its fair value - this means the fight between the little investors and the Hedge Funds is still on. The FED has shown many times in its history that it gets things wrong - what does the future hold? Is bitcoin real, and what is it really? Can you hold it in your hand? The 10 Year Treasury is rising, and could be a precursor to a market crash.
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The Dow lost 1000 points last week. Why? Was it just a correction, or did the GameStop (GME) story influence all of the participants in the market? Why were the big boys and girls - hedge funds and brokerage firms - so upset about GameStop's action last week? How did a bunch of small investors beat the Hedge Funds? All this and more in this podcast.
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A new organization. I review the key precursors that can be use to predict the upcoming stock market crash. How the FED makes its policy changes is reviewed and the top frothy stocks in the current stock market bubble.
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A bond market technical sign shows that bonds have entered a bear market. An expert shares his reasons what will be a precursor to a stock crash - and the bond bear market is one of them. The environment at the start of 2021 for investing is explored and it is not very positive.
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After reviewing the markets, I talk about taking more care with your philosophy in establishing investment ideas, and then review 4 things that could go wrong and 4 thing that could go right with the 2021 economy. Then I review the major driver for the economy in 2021.
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The markets for 2020 are reviewed with an excellent year for stocks, and better year for gold and smashing year for silver. How did we get into this virus mess and how did the authorities deal with it? What are some of the lessons learned about the virus in 2020?
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HY bonds are discussed and their history as being a possible precursor to a stock market crash. Gold is described as a place where purchasing power can be maintained.
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The stock market appears to be overpriced based on past experiences of almost any measure. These are reviewed in this episode. I also ask a series of questions about the virus and vaccines that haven't been answered yet.
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I analyze a debate between Peter Schiff and Harry Dent regarding the problem of how our massive debt trap can be resolved. Peter says it will get solved through inflation, and Harry says it will get resolved through a huge market crash. I also give you the Concensus view of what will happen in the 2021 market.
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The markets are examined and a prediction of a market crash in the next months is discussed. The 4 ways to eliminate debt is discussed along with the probable ways we can get out of our Debt Trap.
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A John Hopkins University paper is examined to scientifically study the death rate of US citizens during the virus. Comparisons showed that the rate of deaths has not changed, and that mis-classifications were suggested as the cause. the paper is a reason to not fear this virus.
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6 questions are asked for the listener to solve. These include the influence of the vaccine and virus testing. The overwhelming influence of the US Federal Reserve is emphasized.
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Stocks exploded this week - why? (I explain it.) Can markets go higher? (I explain why Mark Twain thinks so.) What are the fastest growing industries over the next 10 years? (I give you some predictions.) Why won't the classic 5% Retirement Rule work today? (I explain why this is dangerous today.)
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The inflationary influences in the US market today with worldwide implications, and how GDP might be suppressed in the future as neighbor helps neighbor. I quote 10 rules that are proven characteristics of markets that you trade in. These rules can help you with your timing in the market.
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In this episode, I state that the world is in a Debt Trap (a perfect Ponzi Scheme) and how you should plan and prepare for the massive repricing of assets that is coming. Being prepared will allow you to protect your family's assets and not lose them. Your financial survival is as stake, so a little preparation will go a long way.
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In this episode, I talk about European GDP and its connection to potential future hyperinflation, and discuss the world markets with a Safe Haven explanation of gold investment. I have a special discussion of what might come along in the future in the world of the virus, and how those events would shape our future virus actions.
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In this episode, i talk about the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the sides supported by Turkey and Russia. Keep informed on these dangerous conflicts. I also explore that the US is currently in a Depression (and not a recession) and it will be a long slow climb out of our economic downturn.
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In this episode, I discuss the current markets (going sideways) and China being the largest importer of oil - and how pays for it. The total world debt is unsustainable, and I use the US Debt situation to explain how bad it truly is - by projecting to 2030.
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In this episode, I talk about the success or lack of it to solve the real problem of Covid - 19. I discuss the future of vaccines and the future of testing in the world. I explore possible optimist solutions to the pandemic fear currently defeating our economies. I lastly explore future technical solutions that could completely solve the virus problem.
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In this episode, I discuss eight problems that are concurrently being resolved. Their interactions and solutions will determine the shape and timing of the economic recovery. I also talk about the difference between the "good old days" and the future.
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In Today's Episode, I talk about which sectors of the economy is able to access debt from lenders (funds, banks and individuals). In particular I discuss the Small Business Association loans and how they are not happening today.
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In this episode, I talk about the technical action of gold and lessons that can be learned. I discuss the French people and the virus - their fear and lack of it. I talk about the last 60 years of FED actions and how it fits today. I interpret FED Chair Powell's statements at Jackson Hole WI.
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In this episode, I explore the area of BIG DATA. How much data is collected today? What is it used for? Where is the future of Big Data using Artificial Intelligence? What is data latency? What are the opportunities in this area?
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In this episode, I talk about the price action of gold from its recent climb for 3 weeks to $2067, and its $103 fall in a single day. I also talk about how to think about technical analysis of the price action and predict the potential future for gold.
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In this episode, I highlight the massive rise in gold and focus on what big tech is doing with all that data YOU are voluntarily giving them. The quick highlights of economic news continues to interest. And the major discussion is Europe vs. USA on our economic comeback.
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In this episode, I happily announce gold's emergence above $1900, and cover some very serious international news about Lebanon, the EU, the UAE, and China. The Uighurs are discussed in detail and a very serious scandal is revealed. The valuation of today's US stock market is analyzed and dangerous valuations are reported.
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In this episode, I talk about genetic research and its coming to market very quickly. Our favorite short topics and Oddball news items are always fun and interesting. A special report of what is driving our future global economy and the specifics about small businesses being killed off in today's world.
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In this episode, I talk about the BLS unemployment statistics and new jobs. In addition, I define INFLATION in 2020 as being serious. As a novelty I talk about a small town that is printing its own money.
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In this episode, I have inserted two "What If's" into the podcast. What if the FED decides to unwind its asset positions SLOWLY? and What IF the US Dollar deprecisates by 35% in the near future? The key oddball news and market updates are included.
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In this episode, I present some recent economic statistics on spending during our economic recession, and who is spending and who is not. I show how overvalued the stock market is today and predict a future for gold. Will we be building more hydrogen bombs in the future? What virus statistics can you trust? Did you know the US has 10 times more new cases than Europe?
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In today's episode, I talk about how the world's markets are like a teeter-tooter with the FED sitting at one end. There are the usual oddball news items and a special on the US Housing Market - exploding right now.
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In this episode, I talk about unintended consequences of any change to a complex system. I report that the FED doesn't think we will have a rapid recovery (no V-shaped recovery) of the economy. Oddball news brings you the funny things happening around the globe.
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In this episode, I start by explaining my mistake about a V-shaped recovery. Europe has some interesting news, and a FED President makes a remarkable prediction. I finish with a summary of the Virus and its impact on our society.
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Oddball news is back by high demand, and the US economy and US economic predictions are made for both the immediate future and the next 12 months.
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In today's episode, I review the macro economics of the US and Europe, and focus on China. What does the future hold for US?Chinese relations?
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The economy is reviewed with significantly new numbers, Europe is reviewed and looks glum, the Virus statistics are looked at, and predictions are made for our future economics.
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Interesting Oddball news, and Europe, and the markets were discussed. US economic activity, and a spotlight on Hawaii was presented. The future of stock prices was predicted.
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In this episode, after the market wrap including the funny stuff going on in oil, the current state of the virus was explained. Our favorite Oddball section was added and the Europe was discussed. A special on Warren Buffett was included and the US economic news discussed. The wrap-up was a food for thought talk about what has happened in China (2 months ahead of the US in this virus fight) and what might happen in the western world.
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In This episode, I review last week's markets and discuss the dramatic results of oil on Monday. I discuss falling profits in the S&P500 companies - and what that means. I discuss the ECB banking system and the concept of a "bad bank." I talk about why Stimulus is NOT Stimulus. I explain that we will never return to Normal. And I discuss one state's plan to get its people back to work.
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In this episode, I review the markets for the past week, and talk about the world of the virus as it appears to be coming, some oddball news items, how Italy is determining the future of the EU, a special few words about what is going on in the gold market, and some closing thoughts to keep you focused on the ultimate target of our economy.
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In this episode, I review the European problems and the state of the virus. I also discuss the government programs that are working and project my ideas of the future economy after "the era of the virus."
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In this episode, I review last week's markets, and review the Virus news and include some Oddball news items, then get serious about what's happening in Europe (very serious) and review the US economic news, and conclude with a review of today's market versus the Great Depression.
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In This episode, I update the markets with predictions and the latest news of the virus and economics including Congress, the FED and Unemployment. There are miscellaneous tidbits added for your enjoyment.
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In this episode, I talk about last week's market action, unemployment, and a Virus lesson from China. I also talk about how the FED is trying its hardest to accomplish Bailout 2.0 (remember TARP?)
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In this episode, I walk through the most exciting week in the markets that has taken place since 1929. We are now officially in a BEAR market. I talk about the slow, but dangerous rise in 10 Year Treasury Interest Rates.
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In this episode, I talk about stocks, bonds and gold over the past week, and their various price actions.. I also point out the disappointment the Federal Reserve must have felt after their 1/2 point Fed Funds Rate did not bring the expect results.
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In this podcast, I talk about the US stock market fall and its future based on a possible recession and the various possible Virus behaviors in the US. I answer the question: "Will there be a recession?" I also talk about a depression.
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In This episode I talk about why gold fell like an avalanche after touching $1690. I also talk about why this happened and what gold should be doing in the future.
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In this episode I walk about the price of gold recently and its fundamental and technical drivers. I also make a prediction on the possible future price for gold in 2020. I also include a spoof of an incident of an Italian meeting in Dublin.
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In this episode I talk about the main tools the FED has to manage the US economy - mainly the FED Funds Rate. I discuss how these tools are working today and what shape the FED is in if a recession should hit the US economy. The purpose of this episode is to understand the fundamental workings of the FED.
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In this episode we look at what has changed in the UK after Brexit has happened. Not much. We also look at the problems that the EU faces without having the major contribution that Britain made to its annual budget. Lots of infighting.
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In this episode, I relive the sewer episodes of a prior blog and the latest construction project across the street of our apartment. In addition, I give an update on the movement of the town's Merry-Go-Round - and associated construction. Fun.
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In this episode we talk about the definitions (yes plural) of inflation. And is it meaningful in your life? We look at the things that make up the CPI calculation, and alternative measures like PCE and Chapwood. We look at what can go wrong with inflation.
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Today's episode explains the definition and measurement of US GDP. It talks about the influence of government spending on GDP.
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In this episode Tom Harvey talks about the US stock, bond, commodity and real estate markets - predicting their outcome for 2020. He also introduces some possibly negative events that could, but probably won't come along.
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This episode tells you something about Tom Harvey and the reason this podcast could be useful to you. It also gives you many examples of what the future podcast topics will be: including how to protect yourself, stocks, bonds, commodities, interest rates, The Federal Reserve, real estate, strong and weak economies, and more.
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