Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, and New York City: Recent Episodes

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Aidan Mahoney speaks with Helen Cheng, a Coastal Resiliency Specialist, about science communication and some of the risks New York City faces in a changing climate.

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The following sources were used in my project.City of New York. (2013). A Stronger, More Resilient New York. Retrieved from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/sirr/report/report.page

Demographics of Social Media Users and Adoption in the United States. (2019, June 12). Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/social-media/.

Feng, K., Xian, S., & Lin, N. (n.d.). Tuning deep flooding risk with adaptive strategy: An application for NYC. In 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13. doi: 10.22725/ICASP13.050

Garner, A. J., Mann, M. E., Emanuel, K. A., Kopp, R. E., Lin, N., Alley, R. B., … Pollard, D. (2017). Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(45), 11861–11866. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1703568114

Gornitz, V., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R., Horton, R., Bader, D. A., Orton, P., & Rosenzweig, C. (2018). Enhancing New York City’s Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding. NASA Technical Reports Server. Retrieved from https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20180007116.pdf

Gornitz, V., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R., Orton, P., Buchanan, M., Lin, N., … Bader, D. (2019). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1), 71–94. doi: 10.1111/nyas.14006

NYC Planning. (2016). Info Brief - Flood Risk in NYC. Info Brief - Flood Risk in NYC. Retrieved from https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/plans-studies/climate-resiliency/flood-risk-nyc-info-brief.pdf

Knutson, T. R., Mcbride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., … Sugi, M. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3), 157–163. doi: 10.1038/ngeo779

Knutson, T., Camargo, S. J., Chan, J. C. L., Emanuel, K., Ho, C.-H., Kossin, J., … Wu, L. (2019). Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II. Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0194.1

Orton, P., Lin, N., Gornitz, V., Colle, B., Booth, J., Feng, K., … Patrick, L. (2019). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1), 95–114. doi: 10.1111/nyas.14011

Perrin, A., & Anderson, M. (2019, April 10). Share of U.S. adults using social media, including Facebook, is mostly unchanged since 2018. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/10/share-of-u-s-adults-using-social-media-including-facebook-is-mostly-unchanged-since-2018/.

Population - Current and Projected Populations. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/planning-level/nyc-population/current-future-populations.page.

Reed, A. J., Mann, M. E., Emanuel, K. A., Lin, N., Horton, B. P., Kemp, A. C., & Donnelly, J. P. (2015). Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(41), 12610–12615. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1513127112

Twitter Investor Relations. (2019). Q3 2019 Letter to Shareholders. Retrieved from https://s22.q4cdn.com/826641620/files/doc_financials/2019/q3/Q3-2019-Shareholder-Letter.pdf

U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: New York City, New York. (2018, July 11). Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/newyorkcitynewyork/PST045218.

US Army Corps of Engineers - New York District, & New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. (2016). South Shore of Staten Island, New York Coastal Storm Risk Management - Interim Feasibility Study for Fort Wadsworth to Oakwood Beach - Final Report. Retrieved from https://www.nan.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Projects-in-New-York/South-Shore-of-Staten-Island/

US Department of Commerce, & NOAA. (n.d.). Weather Related Fatality and Injury Statistics. Retrieved from https://www.weather.gov/hazstat/.

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It’s almost here.On Tuesday, November 19th, I will submit my communication strategy for peer review. Two of my classmates will review it and provide feedback, which I will apply to revisions. My final communication strategy will be submitted to my professors and released publicly on Tuesday, December 3rd.

Before then, expect to see a few glimpses next week at my final materials on Twitter and Facebook. If on Wikipedia, check out the pages “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change” and “Climate Change in New York City” and see if you can pick out my contributions!

What else is coming on December 3rd? My project video and podcast. In the podcast, I feature Helen Cheng, a Coastal Resiliency Specialist with New York Sea Grant and the Science and Resiliency Institute at Jamaica Bay. It was an amazing experience to be able to speak with her about New York City’s coastal resilience in a changing climate.

A huge thanks to my Professors Mark Sarvary and Kitty Gifford for teaching an amazing and immersive course!

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Publicly sharing science is an essential part of science communication. This past month, I attended public science events on two dramatically different topics: calculus and marine disease outbreaks. Dr. Steven Strogatz spoke on his book Infinite Powers: The Story of Calculus and examined the origins of this dreaded branch of mathematics. Dr. Drew Harvell spoke on her book Ocean Outbreak: Confronting the Rising Tide of Marine Disease and advocated for better environmental stewardship and awareness. Both talks were exceptional and captivating, and each provide excellent examples of science communication in practice.

The introduction of a talk can captivate the audience and motivate their attention for the duration of the presentation. When communicating science, the introduction serves to foster an interest in an otherwise technical topic. Dr. Strogatz introduced his talk effectively, weaving confidence and professionalism with light-hearted jabs at the often negative perception of calculus by his audience. Additionally, he listed everyday activities made possible by the study of calculus, accentuating modern society’s dependence on the subject. Dr. Harvell appealed to the curiosity of her audience, opening with the question, “Disease outbreaks are mysteries and sentinels of change. How do those processes occur in the ocean?” She capitalized heavily on this overarching question, which guided the rest of her talk.

Communicating technical material requires the presenting expert to be confident, clear, and simple in delivery. Both Dr. Strogatz and Dr. Harvell did this well. In particular, Dr. Strogatz never once presented a complicated mathematical equation. Each of his explanations was rooted in layperson terms and able to be understood without any prior knowledge of calculus. Additionally, Dr. Strogatz used his presentation as a visual aid, which was especially useful in explaining the fundamental process of calculus: splitting objects into infinitely smaller pieces. Dr. Harvell took a more structural approach to her talk, beginning by explaining the broadest topic, how diseases in the ocean are studied, and later emphasizing the four subtopics central to her book. She moved quickly through each subtopic, even though one had already been omitted from her presentation for time beforehand, detracting slightly from the audience’s ability to clearly understand certain details of her presentation. Despite this, I and my fellow audience members completely understood the major takeaways from Dr. Harvell’s talk. Furthermore, Dr. Harvell made climate change, a topic that many are familiar with, a significant part of her talk. This added relevance to her research about ocean diseases, as Dr. Harvell claims that the impacts of climate change support the activity of the pathogens she discussed.

The closing is a presenter’s last chance to impact the audience, and both Dr. Strogatz and Dr. Harvell closed on an inspirational tone. Dr. Strogatz closed with a memorable quote from Picasso, “Art is a lie that makes us realize truth.” Ending on a philosophical note such as this spurs further thought from the audience, myself included. Dr. Harvell finished by saying, “There’s enormous biodiversity in the ocean. There are beautiful things. It should give us encouragement to realize how resilient these organisms are, but they still need our help.” This message of hope resonated strongly with myself and other members of the audience, and fosters a sense of appreciation of the natural environment. During the audience Q&A session, both Dr. Strogatz and Dr. Harvell answered questions amicably and completely.

Dr. Strogatz and Dr. Harvell are seasoned science communicators, and they afford students like myself a chance to learn how best to communicate our science. I highly recommend reading their new books and following their future work.

For more about Dr. Steven Strogatz, visit his website.

View my live-tweets from Dr. Strogatz’s talk.

For more about Dr. Drew Harvell, visit her website.

View my live-tweets from Dr. Harvell’s talk.

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After two weeks of refinement, I am proud to be sharing my project statement. This is a broad outline of my final science communication strategy. It will continue to evolve, and I look forward to putting together the final product.Nearly 60 million people live in coastal counties along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast, at risk of experiencing impacts from tropical cyclones. Additionally, over eight million people reside in New York City, in an area that has been historically ravaged by tropical cyclones. In a changing climate, how will these impacts and the general behavior of these systems evolve?

The amount of tropical cyclones will likely not change. However, the portion of this amount to reach Category 4 and 5 status will increase by about 13%. So, expect to see more storms reaching higher intensity but the amount of storms to remain the same.

Flooding from storm surge, in which tropical cyclones push water onshore, already presents a dangerous situation to coastal residents. In New York City, 400,000 residents are in the one percent annual chance floodplain. As sea levels rise, storm surge flooding will spread further inland. Additionally, rainfall rates are projected to increase by 14%, increasing the likelihood of flooding beyond coastal areas. Flooding was the second highest cause of weather related death in the United States in 2018, exceeding wind, the factor most closely associated with tropical cyclone strength.

Faced with this problem, how can both the government and residents of New York City work to mitigate the impacts? With coastal flooding of paramount concern, efforts should focus on this threat. Since Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which served as a wake-up call for policy makers and coastal residents affected, regulations have been strengthened at all levels of government and engineering initiatives have been examined and undertaken. A sea wall will be built along most of the Staten Island coastline, capable of withstanding coastal flooding of 15.6 feet, two feet higher than that caused by Hurricane Sandy. Projects such as this will save lives and protect property.

Climate measures weather patterns over long periods of time; singular events cannot be attributed directly to climate change. Often, “hype” surrounds tropical cyclones as they threaten communities and gives rise to cursory conclusions. This communications strategy will seek to present the previous three talking points in accordance with the message triangle model, targeting an audience of coastal residents in New York City. Per the US Census, coastal residents trend older and more diverse, so Facebook, which has a large share of older users, and YouTube, which has a wide reach across age groups, will be used in addition to Twitter and Wikipedia.

Visuals showing storm surge inundation and flooding from tropical cyclones will be shared to convey the severity of these impacts. Satellite imagery will be used when referencing tropical cyclone strength. My experiences during Hurricane Sandy can be used anecdotally, but must be framed in order to reduce assumptions that Hurricane Sandy was caused directly by climate change. The ideal time for this campaign is during a period in which tropical cyclones are trending within the new cycle, to counter and clarify the “hype.” However, with climate change a predominant topic in the current discourse, the relevancy of this campaign remains strong.

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Few environments are as harsh as the intertidal zone. Organisms must adapt to this variable environment or face death. Many develop amphibious traits, allowing for survival both on land and in water. Additionally, some organisms have developed motor skills as a means to self-relocate into the water. The behavior and actions of the mummichog demonstrate these properties and claim the gold medal for gymnastics in the tidal pool.

Mummichogs performed their gymnastics floor routine under laboratory conditions at the Shoals Marine Laboratory in the Gulf of Maine. Monitored by high speed and normal video cameras, each routine was broadcast across the lab for judges and audience members to see.

Every gymnast must know and plan their path. Mummichogs, though able to breathe air, prefer their native environment in the water. Their routine ends upon reentry into the tidal pool. Impressively, despite being unable to focus their sight on land, mummichogs rely on the ability to visualize reflected light. Mummichogs interpret this reflected light as being the water, orient themselves in the direction of the reflected light, and perform a gymnastic routine to return to the water. However, mummichogs were unable to discern the difference between light reflected off of the water and light reflected off the aluminum foil. Furthermore, mummichogs were also challenged and mostly failed, at locating the water in dark conditions.

The mummichogs’ routine consists of calculated and acrobatic moves, designed to maximize the effectiveness of the motion in propelling themselves forward. Mummichogs begin by orienting the tail to the direction of travel. They then contort themselves, bringing their heads to their tails in a tuck, and then pushing off the ground to leap. Mummichogs then visually reorient themselves and continue towards the reflected light. While seemingly boring and lacking variance, the mummichogs’ routine happens to be a concerted, carefully calculated leap of faith. One misstep can entrap the mummichog in a coastal crevice and lead to certain death.

As if the moves weren’t enough, mummichogs engage in “prone posturing.” In this position, the mummichog seeks admiration from the audience and judges. Prone posturing also signals the highly expert level of tide pool gymnastics; it is a trait evolved after a species had significant terrestrial activity on land. The prone posture allows the mummichog to re-evaluate its bearing and confirm the direction for its next routine. As a true athlete does, the mummichog takes in the admiration for only a moment, and channels that energy into its next routine. The mummichog strives for perfection; it will only be satisfied when safely back in the water.

The mummichogs complete their routines! The crowd goes wild; all receive perfect tens. Not even humans could compete with the mummichog routine. The next time you are along the coast, you may have a chance to experience the live show and contribute your cheers.