The NZ Property Market Podcast: Recent Episodes

CoreLogic NZ

Brought to you by CoreLogic and produced by Agents TV. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL

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New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2 2026 - the highest level in over a decade. However, beneath the headline number lies an encouraging trend for the residential property market: total employment actually expanded, meaning the unemployment jump was driven by an expanding labour force rather than mass job destruction.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Q2 labour market data. They examine why insulated homeowner employment is keeping non-performing loans and mortgagee sales at near-record lows, alongside a striking North-South Island economic divide where North Island unemployment sits at 6.0% compared to just 3.7% in the South Island.

The guys also break down Kelvin’s latest analysis of Reserve Bank mortgage lending data. They cover why 50% to 60% of first-home buyers continue to secure low-deposit finance, the ongoing borrower shift toward two-year fixed mortgage terms, and why interest-only lending remains strictly controlled despite broader economic headwinds.

This week we discuss:

Q2 Labour Market Breakdown: Why 5.6% unemployment is driven by growing labour supply rather than job destruction.
Housing Market Immunity: How steady employment among existing homeowners prevents non-performing loans and forced sales.
Regional Labour Disparities: The North Island (6.0%) versus South Island (3.7%) unemployment divide, led by Northland (8.8%) and Auckland (6.5%).
Reserve Bank Lending Trends: Key takeaways from mortgage data, including active refinancing and low interest-only volumes.
Mortgage Term Shifts: Why borrowers are increasingly locking in two-year fixed rates as interest rate insurance.
September 2nd OCR Runway: How subdued wage growth (2.0%) impacts Reserve Bank inflation expectations ahead of the upcoming OCR statement.

🔗 Read Kelvin’s latest Pulse article on RBNZ lending data: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/mortgage-lending-trends-10-things-to-know-right-now

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Is Australia on the verge of an extended New Zealand-style property slump, or will structural differences across the ditch protect the Aussie market?

In this special Trans-Tasman edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief NZ Economist Kelvin Davidson are joined by special guest Tim Lawless, Executive Research Director at Cotality Asia Pacific (celebrating nearly 20 years with the firm).

Together, the team conducts a thorough comparison of the post-COVID housing cycles in New Zealand and Australia. They explore why NZ values experienced a sharper 40% boom followed by a prolonged -17% drawdown, while Australia’s market rebounded rapidly off the back of a chronic physical housing deficit.

The panel compares key macro settings, including NZ’s 90% fixed-rate mortgage structure versus Australia’s 60%+ variable debt, mortgage servicing burdens pushing 50% of income in Australia versus easing to 37% in NZ, and the potential impacts of Australia's recent federal budget tax adjustments to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

This week we discuss:

Boom & Bust Trajectories: Comparing NZ’s 40% post-COVID surge and -17% fall with Australia’s 25% peak and swift recovery.
Mortgage Debt Mechanics: Why NZ’s 90% fixed-rate debt delays monetary pass-through while Australia’s variable market (~6.2% rates) feels immediate rate shocks.
Affordability Ceilings: Analysing mortgage serviceability burdens in Australia (pushing 50% of pre-tax income) versus NZ (peaked at 50%, now eased to 37%).
Physical Supply Disparity: How NZ’s townhouse boom reduced housing shortages while Australia faces severe ongoing supply deficits.
Tax Policy & Negative Gearing: What Australia's budget changes mean for investor demand and whether Aussie capital will flow to NZ.
Key Trans-Tasman Lessons: What Australian buyers and policymakers can learn from NZ’s extended multi-year property adjustment.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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National property values recorded their fourth consecutive monthly drop in July, slipping -0.3% to extend the quarterly decline to -1.0%. On this week's episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results. We explore the deepening North-South divide: while Auckland (-0.7% month) and Wellington (-0.8% month) continue to drag, Christchurch (+0.1%) and Dunedin (+0.2%) remain resilient, and Invercargill has surged to a new record median peak of $565,000 (+8.2% YoY).

The guys also discuss a tongue-in-cheek LinkedIn post by Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod, which highlighted a statistical correlation between per-capita cow populations and house price growth. We explain why strong agricultural export returns are buffering rural centres like Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie, while urban service-driven economies lag under high interest rates and pre-election policy uncertainty.

Finally, we preview Wednesday's Q2 official labour market release following June's +0.1% filled jobs figure, evaluate why the unemployment rate could rise from 5.3% to 5.5% due to labour force expansion rather than mass layoffs, and review ANZ's July business confidence bounce.

This week we discuss:

July Home Value Index: Why national values fell -0.3% over the month and -1.0% over the quarter.
The North-South Divide: Auckland and Wellington value softness versus Christchurch (+3.6% YoY) and Dunedin (+3.3% YoY).
Invercargill's New Record: Why the southern city hit $565,000 alongside agricultural hubs Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie.
Satish Ranchhod’s Cow Post: How agricultural strength is directly supporting regional home values.
Labour Market Preview: Why a forecast unemployment rise to 5.5% reflects a growing workforce rather than job destruction.
Election Hesitation: How investor sentiment is cooling as buyers pause ahead of upcoming political tax debates.
Listener Feedback: Addressing a Spotify comment on Christchurch suburb competition and the OCR path.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this special guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall is joined by Ryan Hannigan and Ben Grant from Loan Market Dunedin. Together, they explore the unique dynamics of the Otago and Southland property markets, where housing values and sales activity continue to outperform many northern regions.

Ryan and Ben break down the on-the-ground drivers in Dunedin, including how the multi-billion-dollar Dunedin Hospital build is attracting families, why first-home buyers are actively targeting the $600,000 to $700,000 price bracket, and how infill townhouse developments are transforming traditional suburbs. They also expose a key financing hurdle: why trading banks apply strict boarding house lending criteria to room-by-room student rentals, creating friction for investors despite high demand and steady yields.

The conversation also covers broader mortgage trends across New Zealand, highlighting that over 50% of buyers in June purchased with less than a 20% deposit. Ryan and Ben share practical advice on navigating 2–3 year fixed rate terms (4.99%–5.19%), managing test interest rates, and avoiding common pitfalls when refixing online or relying on unverified AI mortgage advice.

This week we discuss:

Dunedin Market Resilience: Why median values around $623,000 keep the region highly accessible for first-home buyers and relocating families.
Student Rental Financing: Why banks enforce boarding house rules on room-by-room student lets and how parents are stepping in to buy for studying children.
Infill Development Growth: How developers are acquiring older homes to build modern townhouses, mirroring Christchurch’s urban densification model.
The Southland Boom: Why Invercargill and broader Southland continue to buck national trends with strong job security and affordable $400,000 starter homes.
The Low-Deposit Reality: Unpacking data showing more than half of recent borrowers entered the market with under a 20% deposit, including Kāinga Ora 5% options.
Mortgage Structuring Strategy: Why clients are locking in 2–3 year fixed rates for budget certainty rather than chasing short-term rate dips.
Advisor Insights: How to secure a "real estate pre-approval" to stand out in multi-offer scenarios, and how to filter out social media mortgage advice.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Residential property transactions across New Zealand have recorded six consecutive months of year-on-year declines. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest monthly Chart Pack data, revealing that first-half 2026 sales volumes reached 43,183 - down 4.2% compared to the same period in 2025. We explore why high listing stock and broader economic caution are keeping buyers and sellers in a stalemate, while noting that a lack of distress selling continues to keep the market anchored.

The guys also dissect the Q2 CPI inflation release, which landed at 4.1% annually. While slightly above the Reserve Bank's revised 3.9% forecast, the print landed directly in line with commercial bank expectations. We break down the stark divergence within the data: tradable inflation spiked to 4.9% off the back of global fuel pressures, while domestic non-tradable inflation eased slightly to 3.4%. Furthermore, annual rental growth has slowed to just 0.5% - the weakest rate of increase in more than two decades.

Finally, we discuss Stats NZ's official roadmap to introduce a monthly CPI release by August 2027, preview the upcoming July Home Value Index, and evaluate why the RBNZ remains firmly on track for an Official Cash Rate increase at the September 2nd statement.

This week we discuss:

Six Months of Falling Sales: Why H1 2026 transaction volumes contracted 4.2% year-on-year, missing early expectations of a 5% to 10% recovery.
Regional Sales Dynamics: Analysing the rolling three-month volume trends, from Dunedin’s 7.4% rise to Auckland’s 7.8% drop.
The 4.1% CPI Reality Check: Breaking down the Q2 inflation print and why headline numbers drive consumer inflation expectations.
Tradable vs. Non-Tradable Divergence: How fuel costs drove tradables to 4.9% while non-tradable domestic pressures softened to 3.4%.
20-Year Low for Rent Growth: What annual rental growth of just 0.5% means for residential landlord yields.
The Path to September 2nd: Why the Reserve Bank is expected to push the OCR closer to its neutral target (~3.25%) despite weak consumer activity.
Official Monthly CPI Roadmap: Stats NZ's timeline to transition from quarterly inflation tracking to monthly Tier-1 reporting by August 2027.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Construction output costs are tracking upward, but residential builders are absorbing the financial hit. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson analyse the newly released Q2 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI).

The data shows an annualised cost acceleration to 3.5% for the second quarter, up from 3.0% in Q1. We break down the structural reasons why these rising input costs - driven by steel and fuel surcharges - are not being passed on to consumers, as flat residential values and high existing listing volumes force builders to sacrifice their margins.

The guys also preview the critical Q2 CPI inflation drop. Backed by the latest June Selected Price Indexes (SPI) data, which covers roughly 45% of the consumer basket, major trading bank economists have upgraded their near-term inflation projections to between 3.9% and 4.1%.

We discuss what this means for the Reserve Bank’s targeted return to neutrality and why the upcoming September 2nd Official Cash Rate decision remains firmly aligned for another baseline increase.

Finally, we explore the highly volatile net migration metrics, detailing the staggering 23% downward revision to April’s population data, and look at the sharp 1.4% drop in June electronic card spending that signals ongoing consumer caution.

This week we discuss:

The Q2 CCCI Acceleration: Why construction output costs rose to 3.5% annually and why the long-term sector average remains well below the post-COVID peak.
The Margin Squeeze: How high volumes of competing existing housing stock prevent builders from passing input inflation through to consumers.
The Selected Price Indexes: Analysing the mixed signals from June's fuel and food metrics ahead of tomorrow’s official CPI release.
The 3.9% Inflation Floor: Why the RBNZ adjusted its baseline inflation forecast down from 4.2% at the recent Monetary Policy Review.
Population Revisions: The macro implications of Stats New Zealand erasing 5,000 people from April’s net migration figures.
The Sports Wrap: Spain’s football World Cup victory, Ryan Fox’s historic Open Championship win, and the All Blacks’ dominant performance against Ireland.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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First-home buyers are occupying a larger share of the New Zealand property market than at any point in the last two decades.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into the June Buyer Classification data to complete a full wrap of the second quarter. The numbers reveal that first-home buyers secured a record-breaking 28.3% market share across Q2, capitalising on lower house prices, KiwiSaver access, and high-LVR bank lending allowances.

Meanwhile, the landscape for investors is fracturing. While small-scale "mum and dad" buyers holding two properties are steady, large-scale investors owning ten or more properties saw their market activity fall in Q2 down to 2.3%. We break down the combination of high bank serviceability testing, debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, flat rents, and growing election anxieties regarding interest deductibility that are driving this retreat.

The guys also look at the sudden breakdown of the Iran-US peace deal and the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz, analysing how renewed global supply chain uncertainty impacts the path toward the next Official Cash Rate review on September 2nd.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Reserve Bank has delivered an unexpected baseline shift. This week on a special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ’s unanimous decision to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.25% to 2.5%.

Despite a fracturing market consensus on Monday, the Monetary Policy Committee voted with total consensus to remove some economic accommodation. We break down the structural reasons behind the hike, including the RBNZ’s strategic pushback against recent easing in wholesale interest rates and a dropping exchange rate that threatened to undo their inflation-fighting progress.

The guys look past the headline figure to analyse the increased transparency under Governor Anna Bremen, exploring how individual committee members view current inflation balances. We map out what this means for a flattening housing market - currently down 0.9% annually at the end of June - and preview the five pillars of macro uncertainty that will dictate the next interest rate decision on September 2nd.

This week we discuss:

The Unanimous Decision: Why the committee completely abandoned its previous 3-all split to push the OCR to 2.5%.
The Financial Conditions Pushback: How dropping wholesale market interest rates forced the RBNZ to intervene to prevent premature economic stimulus.
The Committee Split: Dissecting the internal RBNZ friction between members warning of structural inflation risks and those viewing them as balanced.
The 3.9% Inflation Reality: Why the RBNZ downgraded its near-term Q2 CPI expectations from 4.3% while simultaneously lifting interest rates.
The Housing Impact: Why retail mortgage rates are unlikely to shift aggressively despite the higher OCR baseline.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Does high climate risk actually destroy residential property value, or does it create a structural entry point for desperate buyers?

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack a groundbreaking new analytics release tracking the long-term price impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle across Hawke's Bay and Auckland.

The data exposes a fascinating climate paradox: high-risk homes are retaining immense price resilience purely because their discounted entry points attract intense demand from affordability-squeezed buyers. Check https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights from Tuesday morning.

The guys also deliver a full, high-stakes preview of Wednesday's structural Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision. With major trading banks split down the centre, we map out the exact economic crosswinds - including a sharp rebound in business confidence, marginally increasing filled jobs, and a structural potential oversupply of global oil - that will decide the outcome.

Plus, Kelvin reports back on his live experience under the roof at Christchurch's brand-new Te Kaha stadium for the All Blacks' season opener.

This week we discuss:

The June HVI Breakdown: Assessing the national 0.2% monthly dip and the ongoing underperformance of Auckland and Wellington City.
The Cyclone Gabrielle Audit: Unpacking the data proving why flood-prone properties hold their values stubbornly against natural hazard warning systems.
The Government Insurance Backstop: Why the days of automated state buyouts are ending and what it means for long-term un-insurability.
The July OCR Split: Analysing the 3-2 bank economist division and the voting mechanics required to break a three-all committee deadlock.
The Green Electrification Shift: How the permanent structural drop in global fossil fuel demand is quietly putting downward pressure on domestic inflation.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The underlying data is flashing clear warning signs of economic consolidation. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the latest New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) and the Reserve Bank’s weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast. The metrics reveal a stark economic slowdown in Q2, dropping bank expectations for a July Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase into a decisive holding pattern as major institutions pull back their forecast increases.

The structural highlight of the week centres on the newly released Reserve Bank mortgage lending data for May. For the first time in two solid years, year-on-year lending growth has ground to an absolute halt, printing a flat $8.6 billion line. We look past the national figures to uncover the real structural landscape: a massive $1.67 trillion asset baseline backed by just $398 billion in total debt. While an aggregate LVR of 24% suggests immense national stability, we expose the distribution trap masking the reality that one-third of New Zealand households carry 100% of the entire country's mortgage debt burden.

This week we discuss:

The GDP Proxy Pivot: Why the Reserve Bank's dynamic, weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast is eclipsing the traditional NZAC index as a truer indicator of a flatlining Q2 economy.
The Lending Streak Snapped: Dissecting May’s flat $8.6 billion lending print and what it means for forward real estate velocity.
The 24% Equity Illusion: Why a $1.67 trillion asset class hides the severe debt concentration weighing exclusively on the mortgaged third of the population.
First-Home Buyer Domination: The raw deal metrics proving first-time buyers are actively expanding transaction volumes while movers collapse by 11%.
The Landlord Tax Premium: How evolving political rhetoric from Labour and the Green Party regarding interest deductibility is shifting the long-term investor baseline.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.

In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.

The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?

Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.

This week we discuss:

The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).
The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.
The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.
Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.
The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

Welcome to a special regional guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast. This week, Head of Research Nick Goodall returns to his hometown roots to interview Jemma Scott-Davidson, owner and mortgage advisor at Loan Market.

With over 20 years of commercial banking experience before launching her independent advisory firm, Jemma provides an invaluable, boots-on-the-ground temperature check of the winterless north.

Moving past the mainstream media's "boom or bust" narratives, Jemma explains why the current environment is actually a return to a "normal" market driven by fundamental life choices.

We analyse the distinct activity occurring within the $650,000 to $750,000 sweet spot, expose the pricing standoff affecting properties purchased at the late-2021 peak, and break down the three clear interest rate fixing strategies currently emerging among New Zealand borrowers navigating the post-MPS landscape.

This week we discuss:

The Whangārei Sweet Spot: Why properties priced between $650,000 and $750,000 are seeing steady, healthy transaction volumes from regular families.
The Million-Dollar Value Gap: Navigating the lack of quality stock in the $800,000 to $1,000,000 bracket and why overpriced listings are distorting buyer expectations.
The Peak COVID Standoff: Why un-capitulated vendors who bought in late 2021 are stalling market velocity.
Three Emerging Fixing Behaviours: 1. The Confident Can-Kickers: Rolling on 6-month fixes to capture short-term savings while waiting for geopolitical oil conflicts to settle. 2. The Long-Term Securers: Locking in 5-year terms to protect fragile household cash flows from further volatility. 3. The Risk Splitters: Tranching debt across 2 and 3-year terms to avoid total structural exposure.
Why DTIs are Stalling: Why high bank test rates are capturing debt-to-income limits by default, leaving equity and deposits as the primary hurdles.
Innovation in Commercial Lending: Real-world examples of Northland businesses navigating tight cash flows through clever asset diversification and labour hoarding.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The structural shift in the New Zealand property market is cementing itself in the data. While the latest Mapping the Market release reveals a highly patchy horizontal flatline across the regions, the newly updated May Buyer Classification data exposes a deep divide in buyer behaviour. Mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs) have taken a decisive step back in the second quarter, dropping to a 22.4% market share as the compounding realities of tight yields, capital growth re-evaluations, and shifting political polls weigh on investor confidence.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down why first home buyers continue to defy gravity, capturing a near-record 28.5% market share. We also deliver regional deep dives into the shifting demographics of Hamilton, Tauranga, and Dunedin, preview the upcoming Q1 GDP metrics alongside Tuesday’s crucial Selected Price Indexes, and analyse how an economic slowdown across the ditch in Australia could quietly reshape New Zealand's net migration baseline.

This week we discuss:

The Investor Retraction: Why mortgaged investors have pulled back for two consecutive quarters, hitting a soft 22.4% market share in Q2 so far.

First Home Buyers Target Records: Inside the relentless 28.5% market share run and the mechanics driving low-deposit entry pathways.

Regional Centre Disruption: Analysing Tauranga’s equity-rich mover surge (33%) and a surprising jump in first-time buyers to 25%.

The Dunedin Yield Matrix: Why gross student accommodation yields look attractive, but aging housing stock is widening the gap between gross and net returns.

Net Migration Rebound: Tracking the steady climb back to 22,800 annual net arrivals and why high rental listings are keeping a ceiling on structural rent spikes.

GDP vs. Selected Price Indexes: Previewing the consensus 1.0% Q1 GDP growth figure and explaining why Tuesday’s monthly inflation data holds the real key to the July OCR decision.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

The May Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results are officially in, delivering a perfectly flat 0.0% national movement. While regional variability persists under the surface - with Christchurch nudging up 0.4% and Wellington softening by 0.3% - the broader market continues to track sideways as buyers hold the pricing power but sellers refuse to capitulate.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson answer a brilliant listener question from Matthew, digging into the data to debunk the mainstream media narrative that a "glut" of townhouses is dragging down the Auckland property market.

We also unpack the surprising resilience of the new build sector with building consents climbing to 39,000, dismantle claims that New Zealand has become a "tax haven" for Australian investors, and analyse RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s latest hints on short-term inflation.

This week we discuss:

May HVI National Breakdown: Why a 0.0% national change signals a long, plain-vanilla winter of sideways tracking.
The Auckland Townhouse Myth: Breaking down the suburb-level data proving townhouse values are performing similarly to standalone homes (both down 3% annually).
Building Consent Resilience: Why the current annualised track of 39,000 consents shows a construction sector vastly more robust than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
The Australian "Tax Haven" Headline: Dismantling trans-Tasman media hype regarding stamp duty, bright-line changes, and cross-border tax complexities.
Paul Conway’s Inflation Hints: Insights from the RBNZ Chief Economist's recent webinar and what it reveals about the internal vs. external OCR committee split.
The 5-Month Election Runway: Anticipating the upcoming structural slowdown as capital gains tax debates re-emerge.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.

Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.

This week we discuss:

The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.
The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.
Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.
The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie’s take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.
April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.
Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government’s infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is.

The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised higher. An increase as soon as July now looks probable. Some committee members wanted to hike now. Their view was to act early to limit future inflation risks.

Inflation forecasts have been lifted. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the near term. This is driven by fuel and import costs. Core inflation is easing, however, and longer-term expectations remain stable. This creates uncertainty around how aggressive the RBNZ needs to be.

Growth has been downgraded. The recovery is expected to be slower. Unemployment is set to stay elevated for the next 12–18 months.

The housing market outlook is weak. House prices are expected to be flat or slightly down. Sales volumes also look subdued. Mortgage rates may rise further, although much has already been priced in.

Overall, the OCR is on hold for now. But the balance has shifted. Future increases look increasingly likely.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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With the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) landing this Wednesday, the economic data is sending an interesting signal. April's electronic card transactions were 1.3% month-on-month—with fuel spending down 2% despite rising prices. It’s decent evidence that "demand destruction" is actively under way as households fundamentally shift their behaviour.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson preview the upcoming OCR decision and why Nick is sliding off the fence to join the Kiwibank camp, lowering the probability of a July rate hike to 40%. We also pull apart the latest Monthly Chart Pack data, which reveals a consecutive four-month drop in year-on-year sales volumes, forcing a major downward revision to our 2026 housing transaction forecasts.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick’s onstage debate with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.

This week we discuss:

Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.
The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.
Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.
April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.
The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.
Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.
Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The latest Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report is out, and the data is a clear win for those entering the market. With a 27.5% market share, FHBs are near record levels, but the real story is what they are buying - 77% are securing standalone houses, up from just 70% a few years ago.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson dive into the devil in the detail of the Q1 labour market stats. Why did unemployment drop to 5.3% despite a loose labour market, and what does the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) tell us about the $100 million cashback war of late 2025?

This week we discuss:

FHB Report Q1: Why FHBs are getting more house for their money and why the average age has dropped to 35.
81% LVRs: The Westpac data confirms that low-deposit lending is the engine room for first-time buyers right now.
Labour Market Surprise: Analysing the 5.3% unemployment rate and why contained wage growth is actually good news for OCR timing.
The FSR Breakdown: The RBNZ’s take on sustainable house prices and the cost of the bank cashback wars.
OCR Debate: Nick previews his Devil's Advocate session with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr.
Personal Wrap: A shout-out to Sky Sports’ Jeff McTainsh and a victory for the Phoenix Women.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report May 2026

In this special guest episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Satish Ranchhod from the Westpac Economics team to discuss the latest co-branded First Home Buyer Report.

They cover off the Iran conflict, the implications for NZ's economy, inflation, and interest rates, then what it might all mean for first home buyers.

Lately FHBs have remained a dominant force in the property market, accounting for high shares of transactions, and also getting 'more house for their money' - supported by a soft market, plenty of listings, and low deposit lending allowances at the banks.

Indeed, Westpac's own data shows that the average LVR has recently gone above 80%, while the average FHB age has dipped a little.

Ultimately, it's a continued good news story - and FHBs still have reason for optimism in the coming months too.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in, and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue to climb?

We also dive into a surprising dose of 'hopium' from the March economic data. With filled jobs up 0.3% and the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) hitting its fastest growth in over three years, we ask if the economy is showing more resilience than expected, or if these are simply lagging indicators of a pre-conflict world.

This week, we discuss:

April HVI results: The national median is up 0.1%, but regional variability is the real story.
The regional divide: Why Auckland’s supply pipeline and Wellington’s 'vibe' shift are weighing on values compared to the farming-backed strength of the south.
March economic resilience: Filled jobs grew by 0.3%, and the NZAC rose 3.2% - could Q1 GDP be stronger than the RBNZ expects?
Labour market preview: Why we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% this week.
RBNZ watch: A preview of Wednesday’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) and the ongoing quest for transparency.
First home buyer report: A teaser for our upcoming release with Westpac, including surprising data on buyer ages.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Q1 2026 CPI data is finally in, landing at a ho-hum 3.1%. While it’s technically above the target band, the market has already moved on to the next big question: exactly when will the RBNZ hold its nerve no longer and lift the OCR?

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the inflation stats and why July vs September is the current 50/50 bet for the first rate hike.

We also dive into the latest Chart Pack data showing a soggy 4% year-on-year drop in sales volumes for the quarter, and respond to a listener request for a dedicated rural property market roundup.

This week we discuss:

Q1 CPI data: Why 3.1% was exactly what the market expected and why the calm before the storm remains the theme for the beginning of 2026.
OCR timing: July or September? We look at the data gaps facing the Monetary Policy Committee in their upcoming meetings.
Soggy sales volumes: Breaking down the 4% quarterly decline in transactions and what it says about buyer/seller capitulation.
Lending rule speculation: Could the RBNZ use LVR or DTI settings as a relief valve while the OCR stays high?
Rural roundup: A deep dive into agricultural debt, input costs vs output prices, and why farm sales might actually be looking up.
Te Kaha stadium: Kelvin reports back from the opening Super Round at Christchurch's new world-class venue.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Wellington is drying out after a night of torrential rain, but the economic data remains heavy.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the March Buyer Classification data, which shows first-home buyers (FHBs) holding a record 27–28% of the market.

We also look at the measured return of smaller investors and why movers are currently staying put.

With the Q1 CPI inflation data due tomorrow, we analyse the latest monthly price indices that show a massive spike in fuel costs - including a 40% jump for diesel in March alone.

We discuss what this "uncomfortable" inflation means for the RBNZ and the growing potential for the OCR to move sooner than expected.

This week, we discuss:

FHB record share: Why first-home buyers are thriving on low-deposit allowances and KiwiSaver.
Investor comeback: The rise of the MPO 2s ('Mum and Dad' investors) as lower interest rates reduce weekly mortgage top-ups.
The fuel spike: March data showing petrol up 20% and diesel surging over 40%.
CPI preview: Why the market is creeping forward expectations for an OCR increase.
Rental floor: Analysing jumpy rent data and whether we’ve reached the bottom.
Sales volumes: Why 2026 has had a soggy and sluggish start for transactions.

Monthly video

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the Q1 2026 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). While cost growth remains relatively controlled at 1% for the quarter, building costs are now 30% higher than they were in March 2020.

We discuss why this controlled growth might be short-lived as global supply chain disruptions and transport cost hikes begin to flow through the industry.

We also analyse the latest RBNZ mortgage lending data, which reveals a massive shift in borrower behaviour. As the market prices in potential OCR hikes, New Zealanders are rapidly moving away from floating and short-term fixes in favour of two and three-year terms.

This week, we discuss:

CCCI results: Cost growth accelerated slightly to 1% in Q1 (3% annually), but remains below the long-term average of 4%.
The level vs growth gap: Why build costs feel expensive despite lower inflation rates - levels are now 30% higher than pre- oandemic.
Construction industry health: Dwelling consents have risen to an annual total of ~37,500, signalling a robust recovery despite regional differences.
Mortgage lending trends: 55% of new lending is now fixed for longer than 12 months, with the two-year rate becoming the most popular choice at 31%.
The OCR outlook: Why the market expects the RBNZ to act sooner than previously thought to combat "second round" inflation risks.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, but with inflation forecasts shifting to 4.2% for June, the wait and see period has a very clear focus on rising costs.

In this special reactionary episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down today’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Review. While the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% was widely expected, the focus has shifted to the Bank's updated inflation outlook and the impact of the newly announced two-week ceasefire in Iran.

We discuss how the RBNZ is balancing the risk of a stuttering economy against the potential for rising wages and transport costs to keep inflation higher for longer. With the June quarter inflation forecast now sitting at 4.2%, we look at what this means for the timing of any future moves and the immediate outlook for mortgage holders.

This week, we discuss:

The OCR decision: Why the 2.25% hold was the only move for today.
Ready to move: The RBNZ’s signal that they won't hesitate to act if they see price increases becoming embedded.
Revised inflation forecasts: Breaking down the shift from 2.7% to 4.2% for the June quarter.
Interest rate strategy: Why the bottom for mortgage rates is likely behind us and what to consider when your fix comes up.
The election year factor: Could the Government step in with fiscal support if the economy enters another recession?

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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March data confirms a property market upturn was underway - but global second-round inflation risks may have just drawn a line in the sand.

In this episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the March Home Value Index, which saw a second consecutive 0.2% rise in national property values. While momentum was clearly building in Christchurch, Dunedin, and Invercargill through the first quarter, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has shifted the narrative toward cautionary gaps and a potential reversal of these gains.

We also preview tomorrow’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Review. With business and consumer confidence plummeting, will the Reserve Bank stay focused solely on sticky inflation, or will the growing risk of a real economy recession force a change in tone?

This week we discuss:

The March HVI: Why Christchurch and Dunedin are outperforming Auckland and Wellington.
Momentum vs. Volatility: Why March’s growth might be the last hurrah before geopolitical uncertainty takes hold.
The RBNZ Preview: What to expect from the first policy review under a new Governor and the importance of uncertainty in their messaging.
Labour Market Resilience: Why the rising unemployment rate is currently a story of labour force growth rather than mass job cuts.
Construction Costs: A teaser for tomorrow's Q1 CCCI release and why the calm before the storm is ending.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode, Kelvin Davidson hosts Gerard Burg, Head of Research in Australia, to discuss the global economic environment, differences and similarities between Australia and New Zealand, and their impacts on the housing markets. They explore recent monetary policy actions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical risks affecting energy and construction sectors.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week’s episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation.

Is the New Zealand property market hitting a crescendo of sluggishness? Following a strong end to 2025, the first two months of 2026 have seen sales volumes dip by 7-8% year-on-year. In this episode, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on whether this is a temporary timing issue or the start of a more sustained slowdown.

We also dive into the Q4 GDP undershoot (0.2% vs. the RBNZ's 0.5% forecast) and what it means for interest rate stability. Plus, we address direct listener feedback on the trap of using averages and why the movers in the market are currently paying a 2% premium over first-home buyers.

This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss:

The sales slump: Why January and February were softer than expected and why our 100k annual sales forecast might be dialed back.
The mover premium: New research showing that second-and-third-home buyers are paying 2% more relative to CV than first-home buyers.
GDP reality check: Why the Q4 undershoot provides a silver lining for those hoping for lower-for-longer interest rates.
The Iran ripple effect: Exploring second-round inflation and why the Reserve Bank is in its absolute worst-case position.
Rental market weakness: Why the stock measure of rents is at its lowest annual change in nearly 20 years.
Averages vs. case studies: A response to listener Carl Horne on the limitations of median data.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Q4 Affordability Report is out, and the data shows a significant shift in the New Zealand housing market. After four years of adjustments, key measures of affordability are returning to long-term averages - but as geopolitical tensions rise, will this recovery be cut short?

This week, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on how to interpret these "normalising" figures and what the latest migration turnaround means for rental demand. They also tackle the uncomfortable economic ripple effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict and what it might mean for the Reserve Bank’s next move.

In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss:

The affordability reset: Why mortgage payments as a proportion of income have finally hit the 20-year average.
Regional winners: Auckland and Wellington’s surprising status as "below average" for debt servicing costs.
The rental challenge: Why renters are still facing a "28% burden" and how new migration arrivals could add pressure.
Migration momentum: Analysing the net gain of 23,000 and the easing of departures.
Geopolitical inflation vs. growth: The "petrol tax" on households and the risk of a medium-term recessionary impact.
RBNZ watch: Is a November OCR hike now a "lock", and could it move even sooner?

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand.

In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index. While an upturn always starts somewhere, the significance of this month is its broad-based nature - with every main centre, including Auckland, seeing growth simultaneously for the first time in nearly a year.

However, a new global uncertainty has arrived. We break down the domestic fallout from the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, including the immediate petrol price shock and how it acts as a direct tax on Kiwi households. We also discuss the flight to safety in financial markets and what a falling NZ dollar means for our inflation outlook.

This week, we discuss:

The February Index Surprise: Why growth in Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin suggests a new market phase.
The Geopolitical Inflation Risk: How shipping costs and oil prices could impact the next OCR decision.
The Exchange Rate Factor: Understanding the flight to safety and its impact on importing costs.
Market Resilience: Analysing the 15% year-on-year rise in dwelling consents and the labour market trough.
Affordability Preview: Key themes ahead of this Wednesday’s full Q4 report release.

Links mentioned in the show:

February HVI
Housing Affordability Report (Available Wednesday 11 March 2026)
Kelly Eckhold on Middle Eastern conflict

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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January’s lending data has landed, and while the crazy peak of December has passed, the underlying numbers reveal a market that is far from quiet.

In this week's Monday morning yarn, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into a return to normality for New Zealand lending. After the bank-switching surge of late 2025, January's figures show a billion-dollar increase over the previous year, signaling a resilient start to 2026. But the real story isn't just the volume - it’s who is taking the debt and how they are structuring it.

This week, Nick and Kelvin break down:

The LVR Appetite Shift: Why first-home buyers are increasingly comfortable operating outside the 20% deposit norm, with a record 57% of FHB loans now done at low-deposit levels.
Investor Re-engagement: A look at the tick-up in low-deposit investor lending (now at 3%) and what this tells us about the willingness of investors to increase debt despite high holding costs.
The Repricing Strategy: Why 30% of all existing mortgage debt is now fixed for at least 12 months - the highest level in years - as borrowers position themselves for a rising interest rate environment.
Non-Performing Loans: The surprising data on pockets of trouble (or the lack thereof) and why mortgagee sales haven't spiked despite the economic climate.
Woman and Property Report 2026: A deep dive into the Knowledge Gap, where 16% of women report not knowing where to start in property - triple the rate of their male counterparts.
Generational Sustainability: Why Gen Z is leading the charge on energy upgrades and the financial hurdles that remain for older homeowners.

Why This Matters for You

Understanding the January Reset is critical for anyone planning their 2026 property moves. As the market shifts away from the December chaos, we are seeing the emergence of a new normal where first-home buyers have the ascendancy and investors are cautiously testing the limits of loosened LVR speed limits.

Whether you are navigating the serviceability trap or looking for a window of opportunity in the current flat-patch, this episode provides the research-led perspective you won't find in the headlines.

Links mentioned in the show:

Latest Chart Pack
Special IWD Guest Episode: Featuring Nicole Ferguson, National Director for Loan Market NZ.
Woman and Property Report 2026

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Ferguson, National Director of Loan Market NZ to celebrate International Women's Day 2026.

Nicole shares her journey from Australia to New Zealand, her leadership experiences, and insights on gender equity in the property and finance industries.

We explore challenges faced by women, the importance of confidence and curiosity, and the future of sustainable housing and AI in finance, with reference to the 2026 Cotality Women & Property report.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week, following the release of the Cotality Monthly Chart Pack for February, Nick and Kelvin discuss recent sales data, regional buyer trends, and economic indicators.

They explore the impact of timing on market activity, regional disparities, and the influence of economic recovery on housing demand following the RBNZ MPS and OCR hold from last week.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.25%.

They analyse the economic forecasts, including GDP growth and inflation expectations, and explore the implications for the housing market.

The conversation highlights the balance between caution and optimism in the current economic climate, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators and their potential impact on monetary policy.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the economy, focusing on monetary policy, net migration trends, and lending data.

They analyse the implications of the Reserve Bank's upcoming monetary policy statement and the recent Cotality Pain and Gain report for Q4 2025, which highlights the profitability of property resales.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the housing market as reflected in the Cotality Home Value Index for January 2026.

They analyse the mixed signals from the economy, including the recent increase in the unemployment rate and its implications for the housing market (it is not all bad).

The conversation also touches on regional variability in property performance and the outlook for upcoming economic reports and events.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent lending data from the Reserve Bank, highlighting a significant increase in bank switching and refinancing activity.

They explore the impact of cash incentives on borrower behavior and the implications for the housing market.

The conversation also touches on insights from the Cotality decoding report, listener questions about spare capacity in the economy, and the dynamics of the labor market.

The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming economic data releases, including the Cotality HVI and Q4 Labour Market stats.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, host Nick Goodall and guests discuss the findings of the Decoding 2026 report, which surveyed over 1,000 property professionals about their read on the market and expectations for the future.

The conversation covers the improved sentiment in the market, regional differences in property values, the impact of interest rates, and the evolving digital landscape in real estate.

The guests share insights on the resilience of Invercargill's market, the challenges faced by Wellington, and the importance of planning reforms and climate change considerations in shaping the future of property in New Zealand.

The episode guests are:

Diego Traglia from Team Diego Harcourts in Auckland
James McRobie from Ray White Invercargill
Tom Coad, Head of Industry Solutions at Cotality NZ

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest inflation data for Q4, discussing its implications for the official cash rate and the broader economy.

They explore the nuances of core inflation, the dynamics of the property market, and the significant role of first-time buyers (following the release of the January Chart Pack).

The conversation highlights the ongoing economic recovery and the various indicators that suggest a positive trend, while also addressing the challenges posed by inflation and its impact on consumers.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the construction sector, focusing on the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4. They note that construction costs have remained relatively flat, with a slight increase of 0.9% for the quarter and 2.3% for the year, which is below the long-term average. The conversation highlights the potential for increased activity in the construction sector due to low interest rates and improved lending conditions, suggesting a more positive outlook for the industry moving forward. They also touch on the recent consenting data, which shows a year-on-year increase in construction activity, indicating a recovery in the market.

The discussion then shifts to a broader economic overview, where they analyse retail spending data and its implications for the economy. They express caution regarding the recent decline in Boxing Day sales but note that overall spending for December was only slightly down. The hosts also discuss employment figures and inflation trends, emphasizing the importance of upcoming CPI data for the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisions.

The episode concludes with a detailed examination of debt-to-income (DTI) ratio reporting, clarifying previous misconceptions and providing insights into how these metrics affect lending and housing market dynamics.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the property market's performance in 2025, highlighting the minor decline in property values and the resilience of first home buyers.

They delve into lending trends, investor dynamics, and the potential impact of global economic factors on the local market as they look ahead to 2026.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode of the NZ Property Market Podcast we republish in full the Property Academy podcast, from OPES Partners where Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall made a guest appearance to discuss the intricacies of the Cotality Home Value Index.

Along with hosts Ed McKnight and Andrew Nichol, Nick delves into the revolutionary hedonic index, which uses regression modelling to estimate property values based on various characteristics.

The conversation highlights key factors influencing property value, such as floor area, location, and the impact of renovations. Listeners gain insights into what truly adds value to properties and how understanding these elements can aid in making informed investment decisions.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, host Nick Goodall engages with Loan Market mortgage advisors from various regions, including Queenstown, Tauranga, and Mangawhai.

The conversation explores local market insights, property trends, and the impact of foreign buyers on the market. Advisors share their expectations for the summer property market and discuss interest rate trends, providing valuable insights for potential buyers and investors.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the just-released GDP data for Q3, which reported a 1.1% growth in the economy, and what the implications are for the future of the economy and importantly, monetary policy.

They analyse the sectors contributing to this growth, the revisions to previous GDP figures, and the potential impact on the Reserve Bank's decisions regarding interest rates.

The conversation also touches on the importance of monitoring economic indicators moving forward and the challenges that may arise in the housing market due to fluctuating interest rates.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week, following the release of Cotality's Best of the Best report, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest suburb performance metrics, review the year in the property market, and set expectations for 2026.

They explore economic indicators, migration trends, and the implications of recent RMA changes on housing supply.

The conversation also delves into long-term property market outlooks and personal reflections on the year.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Following the release of the Cotality NZ Home Value Index for November, this week Nick and Kelvin discuss the impact of Auckland's housing market on national home values, the regional variability in property markets, and the importance of building consents for housing supply.

Courtesy of a few listener questions they then delve into interest rate predictions and the potential effects of flood risk on property values, emphasizing the need for accessible insurance information for homeowners, which feels like it's right around the corner.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest Pain and Gain report, discussing the current state of the property market, resale performance, and economic indicators.

Thanks to a listener question they also explore the implications of unemployment as a lagging indicator and the complexities of migration data (and revisions of).

Plus, Nick provides an overview of the Opes Partners Property Academy Podcast which he featured on last week - all about the detail of the Home Value Index (HVI)

There's also discussion about the growing concerns around climate change and its impact on property values, following a recent article, which Kelvin featured in, on Stuff. The conversation wraps up with insights on the importance of understanding insurance costs in property transactions and the need for accurate flood mapping.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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As expected the RBNZ cut the OCR to 2.25% today, and also signalled that this may be the last cut in the cycle.

In this reactionary episode of the podcast, Nick and Kelvin run through the reasons for the latest decision, and also what the RBNZ forecasts look like in 2026 and beyond - for GDP, employment, house prices, inflation, and the OCR itself.

A house price upturn looks likely in 2026, but restraints such as DTI caps should mean it's modest rather than a fresh boom.

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This week, following the publication of the latest Monthly Chart Pack, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in sales volumes, the implications of a proposed capital gains tax, and with the final MPS of the year this week, the outlook for monetary policy.

They explore how these factors influence the housing market and investor sentiment.

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This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest insights from the first home buyer report, migration trends, and retail spending data.

They discuss the resilience of first home buyers in the current market, the tentative signs of a turnaround in migration, and the cautious optimism surrounding retail spending.

The conversation also touches on the importance of community engagement and the recent client dinner, highlighting the diverse range of clients and the connections made.

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This special guest episode launches the latest joint research by Cotality and Westpac, looking at first home buyers.

Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, is joined by Westpac's Senior Economist, Satish Ranchhod to discuss the latest report, including the broader macroeconomic and interest rate environment.

They then move into the detail of FHB activity, including % market share (by region and price bracket), types of properties bought, prices paid, LVRs, average age, and also a medium term outlook.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in mortgage lending, interest rates, and the labour market.

They explore the rise in mortgage lending activity, the implications of interest-only lending, and the slight increase in the unemployment rate.

The conversation also covers the recovery in building consents and the overall economic outlook, highlighting the importance of adapting to market demands in property development.

For more info about the webinar in conjunction with NZGBC click here.

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With Nick away on holiday across the ditch, in this episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Eliza Owen, Cotality's Head of Research for Australia.

First Kelvin discusses the recent Cotality Home Value Index results for NZ, as well as a look ahead to this week's Financial Stability Report and key labour market figures for Q3 - both out on Wednesday.

Then Kelvin and Eliza kick into a wide-ranging discussion about the similarities and differences between the markets on both sides of the Tasman, including sales, prices, listings, buyer activity, as well as the regulatory environment.

Over the past few years, NZ's property values have remained weak, but Australia has climbed to new highs.

All of this is also in the context of recent proposed changes to LVRs and the potential capital gains tax in NZ after the next election.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the announcement from the Labour party about a proposed Capital Gains Tax. The conversation delves into the implications of a new 28% tax on the net sale of residential and commercial properties which could take effect on July 1, 2027.

It discusses the details surrounding the tax, including what types of properties are affected, the valuation process, and the potential revenue implications. Concerns are raised about the accuracy of projected tax revenue and how market behaviour may change as a result of this new tax.

Nick and Kelvin also speak about a few of the often-missed details in the Cotality monthly chart part and wrap up last week's release of CPI inflation data for Q3.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on construction costs (CCCI report for Q3), government policies, net migration, rental market dynamics, Reserve Bank policies, and inflation.

They explore the implications of these factors on the housing supply and the overall economy, providing insights into future trends and market sentiment.

The monthly video summary is available on Youtube

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on investor trends, the role of first home buyers, and the impact of economic policies.

They analyse recent data, including the rise of multiple property owners and the record share of sales to first home buyers in September.

The conversation also touches on the implications of monetary policy changes and the outlook for the housing market moving forward.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent 50 basis point cut to the OCR, exploring its implications for the New Zealand economy.

They delve into the concept of spare capacity, its effects on inflation, and the housing market's future.

The conversation highlights the importance of consumer confidence and economic indicators in shaping monetary policy decisions, ultimately painting a picture of cautious optimism for economic recovery.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent trends in the property market, including a slight increase in home values for the first time in six months.

They analyse the Reserve Bank's lending data, economic indicators, and the implications for the Official Cash Rate (OCR). The conversation also touches on attracting first home buyers from Australia following a listener question.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, including the recent Mapping the Market data release, lending statistics, and the implications of a new Reserve Bank Governor.

They explore the current state of house prices, the impact of lending practices on first home buyers, and the anticipated changes in monetary policy under the new governor.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent GDP contraction of 0.9% in Q2, its implications for monetary policy, and the potential for interest rate cuts.

They explore the current state of the property market (courtesy of the latest monthly chart pack), including mortgage lending dynamics and buyer behaviour, while emphasising the need for collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate economic growth.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent trends in the property market, focusing on the balance between population growth and housing supply.

They analyse data from 2019 to 2024, highlighting how different regions have experienced varying levels of demand and supply. The conversation also touches on the complexities of housing demand, the impact of net migration, and the current state of retail spending as an economic indicator.

The hosts emphasize the importance of understanding the nuances behind housing data and the need for ongoing construction to meet future population growth.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Geoff Christopher, co-founder of Afterburner, an AI-driven automation platform designed to enhance productivity for financial advisors.

They discuss Geoff's background, the origin of Afterburner, and how it addresses common pain points in the mortgage application process. The conversation also touches on the impact of AI on job security, the importance of partnerships, and how Afterburner differentiates itself from larger corporate tech solutions.

Geoff emphasizes the potential for increased productivity and improved client interactions through automation, while also addressing concerns about data privacy and security.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on the Cotality Home Value Index for August. They analyse trends in property values, particularly in Auckland, and compare the New Zealand market to Australia.

The conversation also covers the impact of economic factors on property prices, recent mortgage lending trends, and the implications of the relaxation of the foreign buyer ban.

The episode concludes with a light-hearted discussion about the epic test match over the weekend between the All Blacks and Springboks at Eden Park.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest affordability report, highlighting improvements in housing affordability due to plateauing house prices and falling interest rates.

They explore regional differences in affordability, the economic context affecting the property market, and trends in lending, particularly among first home buyers.

The conversation also touches on signs of economic improvement and the implications for the property market moving forward.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, piggy-backing off the latest Cotality monthly chart pack focusing on first home buyers and investor activity as well as the split in value change by the different tiers of the market.

They then explore the implications of last week's Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank and government plans to relax the foreign buyer ban as well as the Minister for Housing's desire to see NZ house prices fall.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent decision by the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3%.

They delve into the implications of this decision, including forecasts for inflation, GDP growth, and the housing market.

The conversation highlights the anticipated further cuts to the OCR and the overall economic outlook, emphasising the importance of monitoring key economic indicators.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest Pain and Gain report for Q2, highlighting the decline in resale profits and the overall sluggishness of the property market.

They delve into the economic indicators affecting the market, including inflation and interest rates, and preview the upcoming monetary policy statement.

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In this episode, Nick interviews Ilse Wolfe, a property investment coach and director at Wolfe Property.

Ilse shares her journey into property investment, discussing her early experiences during the global financial crisis, the importance of cash flow, and the impact of healthy homes on communities.

She emphasises the significance of building effective power teams, understanding numbers, and conducting thorough due diligence.

Ilse also shares success stories from her clients and highlights the value of off-market opportunities and data analysis (including using Property Guru) in property investment.

The conversation concludes with key insights on patience and refining processes in property investment.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, highlighting the stagnation in property values and the regional variability across New Zealand.

They delve into the implications of the labour market's performance (including the discouraged worker effect) on the economy and property values, as well as the anticipated monetary policy changes from the Reserve Bank.

The conversation emphasises the need for a stimulatory approach to encourage economic recovery and the potential future trends in the property market.

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Today, it's a mortgage lending data extravaganza as Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in mortgage lending, focusing on the impact of bank switching, the structure of loans, and the current state of non-performing loans.

They explore how competitive cashbacks are influencing borrower behaviour and the implications of regulatory changes on lending practices.

The conversation also touches on the health of the mortgage market, including insights on mortgagee sales and the overall financial well-being of borrowers in New Zealand.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall speaks with Casey Wylde to discuss the latest insights from Trade Me Property's quarterly report on buyer and seller mindsets during the winter months.

They explore the disconnect between buyers and sellers, the motivations for buying in winter, and the advantages for sellers who list their properties during this season.

The conversation also includes practical tips for agents and homeowners, emphasising the importance of well-maintained properties and the shifting mindset in the market.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the rental market (following the release of the July Chart Pack), highlighting a notable decline in rental prices and tenant affordability challenges. They explore the implications of these trends on landlords and tenants alike.

The conversation then shifts to sales volumes, revealing an increase in forecasted transactions for the year.

The hosts also delve into inflation trends, discussing the Reserve Bank's potential responses to current economic conditions.

Finally, they touch on the foreign buyer ban and its limited impact on the market, emphasizing the small number of properties that would be affected by any changes.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall speaks with Matt Spicer, franchise owner and mortgage adviser at Loan Market Wairarapa. Together Nick and Matt discuss the current state of the New Zealand property market, focusing on the Wairarapa region. They explore trends in first home buyers, property prices, and the impact of interest rates.

Matt shares insights on the importance of communication in mortgage advising and the rewarding nature of helping clients navigate the property market. The conversation also touches on the construction market, lifestyle properties, and the role of reverse equity mortgages in supporting clients' financial needs.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on the trends among first home buyers and investors, the dynamics of sales volumes, and the implications of recent economic indicators and inflation data (including genuinely live reaction to the Q2 release which happened while recording).

They explore how societal perceptions of property investment are evolving and the challenges faced by different market participants.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in construction costs, implications for the new build sector, and insights from new lending data.

They analyse the current economic outlook and the potential impact of monetary policy decisions on the property market.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent monetary policy review by the Reserve Bank, focusing on the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25%. They analyse the implications of this decision on inflation expectations, economic recovery, and the housing market.

The conversation highlights the unanimous decision of the Reserve Bank, the anticipated cuts in the future, and the cautious optimism regarding New Zealand's economic recovery driven by strong export prices and lower mortgage rates.

They also touch on the current state of the housing market and the potential impacts of economic uncertainty on consumer behaviour.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest Home Value Index, revealing a slight 0.2% rise in property values after a period of stagnation.

They explore the current trends in the housing market, including the balance between supply and demand, and the implications for buyers and sellers.

The conversation shifts to dwelling consent data, highlighting a stabilisation in construction activity, and concludes with an economic overview, focusing on the upcoming OCR decision and its potential impact on the market.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the concept of the trade-up premium in the housing market, exploring how it has changed over time and its implications for buyers.

They delve into market dynamics, consumer confidence, and economic indicators, highlighting the challenges and opportunities present in the current environment.

The conversation also touches on inflation expectations and business confidence, providing insights into the broader economic landscape and what it means for the future of the property market.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall speaks with mortgage advisor Toni Dawson about the current state of the property market in New Zealand.

They discuss market trends, buyer behaviour, investment strategies, and the dynamics of different property types.

The conversation also covers mortgage trends, refinancing options, and the importance of building long-term client relationships in the mortgage advisory space.

Toni shares insights on how to navigate the current market and the significance of seeking professional advice.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, focusing on interest rates, sales volumes, and the impact of economic data.

They explore the dynamics of investor activity, the role of first home buyers, and the ongoing challenges of housing affordability and quality.

The conversation also touches on global economic influences and the implications for New Zealand's housing market moving forward.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest suburb data from the Mapping the Market tool, highlighting the performance of different property types.

They delve into net migration trends and their implications for the housing market, emphasising the ongoing economic challenges.

The conversation also covers the recent Auckland CVs, addressing public concerns about property valuations and their impact on rates.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest Home Value Index results, highlighting a surprising consistency in market weakness across major centers.

They explore the dynamics of regional markets, particularly Hamilton, and the potential emergence of a two-speed economy as recovery unfolds.

The conversation delves into global economic trends, productivity growth challenges, and the impact of recent building work statistics.

They also touch on loan terms and Westpac's successful economic forecasting, concluding with personal reflections on the current state of the market.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest insights from the First Home Buyer Report, highlighting trends in the market, the impact of mortgage lending data from the Reserve Bank, and the current economic uncertainty affecting first home buyers.

They explore the challenges and opportunities in the housing market, including the rising average age of first home buyers and the importance of understanding debt-to-income ratios.

The conversation emphasises the need for a balanced perspective on renting and buying, and the ongoing interest in first home buyers as a key demographic in the property market.

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In this special guest episode of the NZ Property Market Podcast, Kelvin Davidson and Satish Ranchhod discuss the inaugural co-branded Cotality Westpac NZ First Home Buyer Report.

They explore the current economic landscape for first home buyers, key insights from the report, demographic trends, and the future outlook for the housing market.

The conversation highlights the resilience of first home buyers in the market, the impact of interest rates on affordability, and the changing demographics of buyers.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent monetary policy statement, focusing on the decision to lower the official cash rate (OCR) to 3.25%. They analyse the economic forecasts, including GDP and inflation expectations, and their implications for the housing market. The conversation also highlights upcoming economic indicators that will influence future monetary policy decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss discuss the current state of the property market, including recent trends in sales volumes and property values (following the release of the Cotality Monthly Chart Pack).

They analyse the upcoming OCR decision and its implications for the economy, as well as the recent government budget and its limited impact on the housing market.

The conversation highlights the balance between monetary and fiscal policies and the overall economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of understanding inflation expectations and market dynamics.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Pete Eastwood discuss the unique property market in Wanaka. They explore the current trends, buyer demographics, and the implications of the foreign buyer ban.

Pete shares insights on the ongoing development in the area, the challenges faced by buyers, and the opportunities available in the market. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding local dynamics and the need for professional advice in navigating the real estate landscape.

In this conversation, Nick and Pete discuss the complexities of property purchasing, focusing on the importance of understanding the mortgage process, navigating interest rates, and the impact of lending regulations. They emphasize the need for professional advice, especially for first home buyers, and explore the role of KiwiSaver in home purchases.

The discussion also highlights the increasing reliance on mortgage advisors and the core values that guide their practice, including communication and client education. Finally, they touch on the potential impact of AI in the mortgage advisory space.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest quarterly Pain and Gain report, highlighting key statistics on property resales, profit margins, and market trends.

They delve into regional variations in property performance, the dynamics between investors and owner-occupiers, and the impact of migration trends on the rental market.

The conversation also touches on economic indicators, inflation concerns, and the upcoming government budget, providing insights into the current state of the New Zealand property market.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, focusing on first home buyer activity, labour market data, and the implications for the economy and the RBNZ's OCR decision at the end of the month.

They also explore the importance of energy efficiency in housing (thanks to the NZGBC report) and the dynamics of the rental market, thanks to a listener question.

The conversation highlights the challenges and opportunities facing buyers and investors in the current economic climate.

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As first featured and published on the Home Run podcast with David and Harps, here's the full interview with Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall.

In the interview the team explores key factors influencing property prices, buyer behavior, and market dynamics. The discussion highlights the impact of interest rates on affordability, the segmentation of buyers, and the challenges faced by first-time buyers.

It also touches on the resurgence of investor interest and the tools available for navigating the property market.

Overall, the conversation provides insights into the evolving landscape of real estate and offers predictions for future trends. In this conversation, Nick and the hosts delve into the motivations behind home ownership, the current state of the real estate market, and the psychological factors influencing buyers.

They discuss investment yields, migration trends, and the appeal of Australia for New Zealanders seeking better opportunities. The conversation also touches on the need for improved economic productivity in New Zealand and the potential for foreign investment policy changes.

Finally, they explore long-term growth expectations in the property market, emphasising the importance of focusing on yield rather than speculative capital growth.

Further, they delve into the complexities of global geopolitical tensions, the economic implications of these events, and the role of monetary policy in shaping financial landscapes.

They discuss the impact of uncertainty on markets, particularly in relation to interest rates and mortgage strategies. The conversation also highlights the differences in property markets across countries, with a focus on New Zealand, Australia, and the US.

CoreLogic's contribution to providing accurate data and insights is emphasised, along with personal reflections on life choices and the importance of community.

For more info go to www.homerunpodcast.co.nz

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, including the Home Value Index (HVI) and lending data from the Reserve Bank.

They explore regional performance variations, the impact of recent weather events on property, and the cautious approach of borrowers in the current economic climate.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Becs McCallum discuss the current lending environment, the impact of global events on the New Zealand property market, and the changing dynamics of borrowing capacity.

Becs shares her personal journey from working in the family butchery to becoming a mortgage advisor, and they explore how recent changes in interest rates and lending policies are affecting first home buyers and investors.

The conversation also touches on the importance of long-term planning in the current market climate. In this conversation, Becs McCallum discusses the current state of the mortgage market, focusing on interest rates, buyer behaviour, and the challenges faced by first home buyers.

She highlights the importance of diversifying mortgage options and the shift towards fixed rates. The discussion also covers the dynamics of the new build market and the impact of processing delays in mortgage applications.

Becs emphasizes the need for education and communication in navigating the mortgage landscape, particularly for new advisors and first-time buyers.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on listings, sales activity, and regional variations, following the release of the monthly chart pack.

They explore the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the market, including GDP growth, inflation expectations and business confidence.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss their Easter weekend experiences before diving into the latest CPI inflation data, which showed a slight increase but remains within the Reserve Bank's target band. They explore the implications of this data on monetary policy and the economy, including the introduction of Kiwi GDP as a new economic indicator. The conversation also covers recent trends in mortgage interest rates and serviceability tests, highlighting the potential impact of debt-to-income ratios on borrowing. The episode concludes with a look ahead at the economic landscape and upcoming data releases

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, focusing on first home buyers, investor activity, and lending trends.

They analyse the impact of macroeconomic factors, including tariffs and the official cash rate (OCR), on the housing market.

The conversation highlights the dynamics between different buyer groups and the overall outlook for property transactions in 2025.

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In this reactionary episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent announcement from the Reserve Bank regarding the official cash rate (OCR) cut and its implications for inflation and economic growth.

They delve into the impact of tariffs on New Zealand's economy, the importance of medium-term inflation expectations, and the future of monetary policy.

The conversation also touches on the property market outlook and the decisions facing mortgage borrowers in light of the changing economic landscape.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the implications of US tariffs on the economy, focusing on inflation and monetary policy.

They explore the potential impacts on New Zealand's economic activity and the Reserve Bank's upcoming monetary policy review.

The guys then cover off the CoreLogic Home Value Index for March, indicating a recovery in the market, and concludes with insights on construction data and the importance of increasing housing supply to meet population growth.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, including improvements in CoreLogic value tracking (splitting suburb measures by property type), the impact of affordability on property values, and insights from the (relatively) new Hedonic Home Value Index (HVI).

This includes a refreshed and upgraded version of mapping the market as well as a weekly back series for the HVI.

They also explore lending trends, particularly focusing on debt-to-income ratios and interest-only lending, as well as recent government reforms aimed at increasing housing supply via big changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA).

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Sanjeev Jangra, a mortgage advisor from Loan Market, discussing the current state of the property market.

They explore trends in home values, the impact of interest rates on affordability, and the resurgence of first home buyers. Sanjeev shares insights on investor behaviour, emphasising a shift towards cash flow rather than capital gains.

The conversation also touches on navigating debt to income ratios and the outlook for the new build market. In this conversation, Nick and Sanjeev discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on strategic land acquisition, mortgage fixing strategies, and the challenges faced by mortgage advisors.

They explore the opportunities available in property development, the importance of education in the market, and the impact of interest rates on mortgage decisions. Sanjeev shares insights on leveraging technology in mortgage advisory and offers valuable tips for new advisors to succeed in the industry.

Sanjeev can be contacted on 021 23 66 777

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A very special announcement...

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent Q4 GDP data, which showed a positive growth of 0.7%, putting an end (yet again!) to the recession.

They explore the implications of this growth on monetary policy, particularly regarding the OCR and inflation risks.

The conversation shifts to sales volumes in the property market, off the back of the latest CoreLogic Housing Chart Pack, noting a slight decline in February but an overall upward trend.

They also analyse lending trends, highlighting a tentative shift towards longer-term mortgage rates.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest findings from the CoreLogic affordability report for Q4 2024. They explore the improvements in housing affordability, regional variations, and the implications for future house price growth.

The conversation also touches on economic indicators and further tentative signs of improvement, then moving to government policies, and the importance of infrastructure investment in driving economic recovery.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the recent signs of a market turnaround in New Zealand's property sector, highlighted by the latest home value index. They explore regional variances in property values, the current state of the construction industry, and the implications of the Reserve Bank Governor's resignation on monetary policy. The conversation emphasizes the importance of looking ahead to economic expectations and the potential for future growth in the property market.

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This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest Women and Property Report, highlighting the persistent investment property gap between genders.

They then explore economic indicators, labour market trends, consumer confidence, and inflation insights, while also predicting potential changes in house prices (using the weekly home value index data as a guide).

The conversation wraps up with a discussion on government infrastructure funding changes, announced last week.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Pervan, GM of Home Lending at Kiwibank, in celebration of International Women's Day 2025.

They discuss Nicole's personal and professional journey, the challenges women face in the workplace, and the importance of financial literacy and home ownership.

Nicole shares insights on leadership development at Kiwibank, the attributes of effective leaders, and offers advice for young leaders. The conversation emphasises the significance of International Women's Day and the need for deliberate action to support gender equality in the workplace.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall speaks with Shayna King, a mortgage advisor at Loan Market South in Christchurch.

They discuss Shayna's career journey, the impact of recent monetary policy changes on mortgage rates, and the current state of the property market in Christchurch.

Shayna shares insights on client demographics, the new build market, and the importance of ethical advice in the mortgage industry.

The conversation highlights the challenges faced by mortgage advisors and the significance of legal connections in the home buying process.

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This week Nick and Kelvin piggy-back off the release of the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, to dig into the latest listing data, including regional, property type and bedroom count differences as well as the dynamics of the supply and demand of the current rental market.

They explore the high levels of property listings, particularly in Wellington, and discuss how these trends vary across different regions, including Christchurch and Queenstown.

The conversation highlights the importance of understanding demographics and demand when considering property investments, as well as the impact of rental supply and tenant income levels on rental prices.

They also discuss the impact of migration on housing demand, trends in interest rates and mortgages, and the implications of development contributions on housing supply in Auckland.

They explore the challenges of affordability for renters, the slowdown in migration growth, and the potential for future housing shortages due to new regulations. The discussion emphasizes the need for infrastructure investment to support population growth and housing development.

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Coming to you shortly after the OCR announcement Nick and Kelvin discuss the Reserve Bank's recent Monetary Policy Statement, focusing on the significant changes in interest rate forecasts, the implications for economic growth and inflation, and the outlook for house prices. They analyze how the anticipated cuts in the official cash rate (OCR) will affect borrowing capacity and consumer spending, while also addressing the broader economic context and potential market dynamics.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss recent lending data, the Pain and Gain report for Q4, and expectations for the upcoming official cash rate announcement.

They analyse trends in mortgage rates, consumer behaviour, and the overall economic outlook, emphasizing the impact of lower interest rates on disposable income and spending.

The conversation highlights the resilience of the housing market and the importance of lending regulations in mitigating risks during downturns.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, CoreLogic Head of Research Nick Goodall speaks with Paul Foster from Ray White about the current state of the real estate market in Auckland.

They discuss Paul's journey into real estate, insights into buyer behaviour, the dynamics of the vendor market, and strategies for investors.

The conversation also touches on the role of technology in real estate, common mistakes made by buyers and sellers, and the challenges faced by agents in the industry.

Paul shares valuable tips for navigating the market and emphasises the importance of understanding market cycles and buyer motivations.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest labour market figures (for Q4) and the implications of rising unemployment on the housing market.

They also analyse the trends of first home buyers in 2024 as well as explore the potential dynamics of movers and mortgaged investors in 2025.

Additionally they round up the latest news, including the potential relaxation of the foreign buyer ban, the recent capital value revaluations in Wellington and current mortgage rates (off the back of a 3-year rate dropping below 5%).

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In today's episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market as indicated by the CoreLogic Home Value Index for January. They explore the flat market conditions, regional variabilities, and the impact of lower mortgage rates.

The conversation shifts to economic indicators, particularly the New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC), suggesting a potential end to the recession. They also delve into public sentiment regarding housing affordability and the importance of location in the housing market.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Dallas Roberts, a mortgage advisor at Loan Market Agile.

They discuss the current state of the property market in New Zealand, focusing on trends in mortgage applications, the behaviour of first home buyers, and the impact of interest rates.

Dallas shares insights on the increasing demand for family homes, the challenges faced by first home buyers, and the evolving construction market.

The conversation also highlights the importance of customer experience in the mortgage advisory business and the strategies that contribute to Loan Market Agile's success.

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This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent CPI inflation data (for 2024 Q4) and its implications for mortgage holders. Then, off the back of release of the latest CoreLogic monthly chart pack, they explore the recovery in the real estate market, highlighting a significant increase in transaction volumes compared to the previous year.

The conversation also touches on the Prime Minister's State of the Nation speech, which, while lacking specific housing market details, emphasises economic recovery and the impact of falling interest rates.

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Today, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest lending data from the Reserve Bank, highlighting a significant trend towards floating mortgage rates.

They explore the implications of this trend, the state of building consents, and the potential recovery of the construction sector.

The conversation also touches on upcoming inflation data and its impact on monetary policy.

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Happy New Year! In the first podcast of the year, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, including the CoreLogic Home Value Index, construction costs (CCCI report), and Reserve Bank mortgage lending data.

They explore the contrasting performance of Auckland and Hamilton, the current state of the construction sector, and the dynamics of the rental market. The conversation also touches on personal reflections from their summer breaks and the new podcast format for the year ahead.

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Merry Christmas!

Welcome to 2024 Property Wrapped, where Nick Goodall from CoreLogic discusses the 2024 property market with industry leaders Diego Traglia and Steve McMenamy. They reflect on the year's market dynamics, including the rise of first home buyers, the return of investors, and the impact of interest rates.

The discussion also covers predictions for 2025, the influence of consumer psychology on market behaviour, and the overall sentiment towards property transactions.

The experts emphasise the importance of knowledge and education in navigating the evolving market landscape.

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In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent GDP figures, their implications for the economy and property market, and the expected trends for 2025, including covering the final monthly chart pack of the year.

They analyse the government's financial update, the impact of interest rates on the housing market, and the current state of inflation and rental prices.

The conversation highlights the conflicting forces at play in the market and offers insights into future trends for investors and homeowners alike.

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In this episode, Nick and Kelvin review the New Zealand property market's performance in 2024 and discuss expectations for 2025.

They analyse key statistics from the 'Best of the Best' report, highlighting trends in property sales, rental yields, and the impact of interest rates.

The conversation also covers the changing dynamics of first home buyers and investors in the market, as well as broader economic indicators such as migration data and retail spending.

In this conversation, Kelvin and Nick discuss the current economic indicators and their implications for the real estate market, particularly focusing on Auckland's housing performance and the outlook for new builds in regional markets (thanks to some listener questions).

They analyse GDP trends, the impact of interest rates, and the performance of new townhouses compared to older properties. The discussion also touches on the broader economic recovery and the factors influencing regional markets.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the property market, highlighting a continued decline in home values (according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index) and a holding pattern in the market.

They explore insights from the construction industry, noting a potential bottoming out of dwelling consents and the impact of lower interest rates.

The conversation shifts to loan terms, revealing a trend towards shorter fixed rates and floating loans.

Looking ahead, they emphasize the importance of upcoming data releases, particularly net migration figures, and keep an eye out for the best of the best report, live on Thursday.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent OCR decision, its implications for mortgage rates, and the current state of the lending market.

They analyze the latest lending data, highlighting increased activity among investors and first-home buyers.

The conversation shifts to the broader economic landscape, examining consumer confidence and retail sales trends.

They also delve into the impact of debt-to-income restrictions on the housing market and consider future economic recovery strategies, emphasizing the need for both monetary and fiscal support.

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In this episode, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the Reserve Bank's recent decision to cut the official cash rate by 0.5%, bringing it down to 4.25%. They analyse the implications of this decision on economic forecasts, including unemployment rates and house price growth. The conversation highlights the expected trajectory of the OCR, the impact of lower mortgage rates on the housing market, and the broader economic context, including global factors influencing inflation and growth.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the current state of the property market, focusing on the anticipated OCR cut, buyer classification, and economic indicators. They explore the dynamics between first-home buyers and mortgaged investors, the challenges faced by movers, and the broader economic context influencing the Reserve Bank's decisions. The conversation highlights the slow recovery expected for the economy and property market, emphasising the need for fiscal support alongside monetary policy adjustments.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Nick Goodall interviews Mike Bloy, a mortgage advisor from Loan Market.

They discuss Mike's journey into mortgage advising, the daily responsibilities of a broker, the importance of building relationships with lenders, and the challenges faced in the current market.

Mike shares insights on navigating the second tier and non-bank lenders, as well as strategies for overcoming obstacles in providing excellent service to clients.

In this conversation, Mike and Nick discuss the intricacies of navigating the real estate market, focusing on strategies for home buyers, the importance of building trust and setting expectations, and insights into current market dynamics and interest rates.

They explore the changing behaviours of borrowers, particularly first-time buyers, and the emotional aspects of property purchasing.

The discussion culminates in predictions for the future of the market and the role of brokers in guiding clients through the process.

Contact Mike https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/mike-bloy

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and chief economist Kelvin Davidson discuss the latest trends in the property market, including insights from the Pain and Gain report, current sales volumes, and the impact of economic indicators on consumer spending and the rental market. They also explore the cautious borrowing behavior of consumers in light of recent interest rate changes and provide forecasts for the upcoming economic landscape.

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After a quick run through the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential impact of the US election result and Donald Trump's return to the Whitehouse.

Then, there's the relatively inconsequential (to RBNZ's liking) Financial Stability Report to digest as well as the important official Labour Market statistics for Q3, which were better than expected on the surface but a bit of devil in the detail to be mindful of.

There were also some very interesting changes in the terms being chosen by mortgage holders in September to analyse.

Plus, how about those All Blacks?!

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After running through the highlights of the latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October, Nick and Kelvin delve into all the relevant data, assessing the state of our economy and business sector.

There's filled jobs data, highlighting the weakness across the labour market, detailed by @MusicalChairs14 on a twitter thread and discussed by the guys.

Kelvin also took the time to delve into the latest release from the Xero Small Business Insights showing ongoing declines in sales and increases in firms downsizing their workforce.

Things don't look great from a business perspective, however there's reason for optimism when analysing the ANZ business confidence survey, in particular expectations of future activity and inflation.

A lot to take on board, and that's without considering the detail within each of the above releases when it comes to the construction industry, alongside signs building consents may be at or approaching a respectable trough.

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Coming to you prior to the long Labour Weekend, Nick and Kelvin review all the property and lending data from the week.

Starting with a focus on property investors, following the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack where Kelvin highlighted the upwards trend in sales to multiple property owners, as well as the RBNZ lending data showing investors taking on a greater share of lending above 65% LVR.

The other (unexpected) meaty piece of content to get stuck into was the Reserve Bank Governor's speech in the US, which Nick reviews and picks out a few quotes to help guide expectations for the next OCR review (and MPS) on November 27. Is a 75 basis point cut really a possibility?

The rest of the round up includes other insights from the chart pack (first home buyers) and lending data (interest only lending), the NZ Activity Index for September, rounding out Q3 in anticipation of official GDP data (in about 6 weeks!) and a surprise hit to consumer confidence.

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Following the release of the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin the state of the construction market, including a few reasons to be optimistic, though it's fair to say caution should still remain.

A quieter week for data also allows the guys to provide an update on what's happening from a listings perspective - both for sale and for rent, plus there's a usual economic round-up (PSI, card sales) and REINZ sales and HPI to digest.

Plus, a final wrap of the CPI inflation data which was released and discussed in an extra podcast last week.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data for Q3.

Headline inflation is now within the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss, including the breakdown of tradeable to non-tradeable and the upside and downside risks of what's to come.

Perhaps most importantly, what could it mean for the next OCR decision on November 27? Is a 75 basis point cut on the cards?

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This week, Nick chats to Logan Reardon from Loan Market Auckland.

Logan has experienced a meteoric rise in the lending world as he's become an elite advisor in little more than 5 years in the industry. Logan has amassed a dedicated team in a very short time period - all tasked with getting the best result for their clients.

Logan isn't afraid to touch on difficult discussion points either, such as the conversation with those unfortunate first home buyers who bought at the peak, or someone engaging an off-the-plan built that's decreased in value through the build.

Nick and Logan delve into all that, and more, including the market reaction to the latest OCR cut, how different property types affect buyer power and expectation, the impact of the 'market chain' and how multi-banking is so important for investors.

Logan can be contacted on logan.reardon@loanmarket.co.nz.

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Befitting it's importance the RBNZ MPR and OCR review leads the podcast once again. With a few more days to digest the decision the conversation turns to the potential impact to the property market and what the next decision might be - is a further 0.75% really on the cards?

Of course it's all down to inflation, which puts this Wednesday's CPI data for Q3 firmly in the spotlight. A drop from previous 3.3% is almost guaranteed but where will the annual rate land in comparison to the RBNZ's forecast of 2.3%?

Meanwhile there's plenty other data releases to digest, from CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for September through to Stats NZ rental price information.

Check out Kelvin's article on the latest lending stats too.

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The Reserve Bank has followed through on what ‘the markets’ and bank economists were expecting, with a 0.50% OCR cut today.

Inflation is considered to already be back in the target range (official data due Tuesday 16th) and the economy is weak, with the RBNZ noting we have ample spare capacity in NZ.

Check out today’s reactionary pod for Nick and Kelvin’s take on the decision.

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This week it's a special edition guest PLUS Monday data round up.

Along with Kelvin, Nick welcomes Richard Vaughan, Regional Director at Opteon Solutions to the pod.

As Nick is fresh off a family holiday in Rotorua, he offloads to Kelvin and Richard to fill him in on a busy week for the property market, including:

The Corelogic Home Value Index results for August.
Stats NZ Census data, including home ownership figures
Government announcement to underwrite new developments
RBNZ data on loan terms chose in August
Economic data on business confidence and filled jobs.

That's all before a detail preview of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Review, and OCR decision coming up on Wednesday (reactionary pod pending Kelvin's Jury Duty and Nick's Sydney trip).

Of course, there's still room for a bit of sports chat at the end, including Richard's pride in his Olympic gold medal winning niece Tara Vaughan (K4 500), and the NRL Grand Final.

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It’s a busy period at the moment for work travel and holidays, so this week’s episode is appearing a few days early – and we kick things off by looking at NZ’s $1m+ property markets, some of which are no surprise (e.g Auckland, Queenstown), but also some which aren’t quite as obvious.

Meanwhile, the recent economic data – such as the NZ Activity Index – hasn’t done anything to change the strong odds that the OCR is cut again on 9th October, which will keep the downwards pressure on mortgage rates. The effects of that are already showing through in mortgage lending activity, which is rising, with low-deposit activity also picking up.

Looking ahead, we’re awaiting filled jobs data, business confidence, dwelling consents, and figures on the loan terms being chosen by new borrowers – short fixes have been popular lately, so it’ll be interesting to see how August’s figures shape up.

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With Kelvin away on holiday Nick calls up Mark Harris from New Zealand Sotheby's International Realty hear what's going on the premium property market, including the always-of-interest Queenstown Lakes district.

Mark also speaks about the impact of the foreign buyer ban and the potential for it to be loosened in order to increase foreign investment into the NZ economy.

Mark then delves into other policy changes - shortening of the Brightline test, reintroduction of interest deductibility, loosening of LVRs and introduction of DTIs. It's all covered in a wide-ranging chat which also includes a roundup of last week's data releases - importantly the GDP result for Q2, and what it could mean for the RBNZ's next OCR call on October 9.

And make sure you download the latest monthly chart pack to keep at your side for future reference.

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Following the latest update to the CoreLogic Mapping the Market tool, visualising values and value change by suburb, Nick and Kelvin discuss some of the results as well as the awesome level of info freely available to anyone who's interested. The results illustrate the recent weakness of the property market, but also the importance of keeping a long term view as the better-looking 12 month view shows.

Then from an economic perspective there's plenty to sink your teeth into (or should it be to swallow your ears?) with both net migration and rental prices continuing to slow.

The rental price data was also part of the broader price indices tracking from Stats NZ and on that note things continue to look good that inflation will be back below the 3% annual rate by the end of the quarter.

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A week on the road, combined with the latest HVI data and RBNZ lending stats leads Nick and Kelvin to discussing all the considerations for picking the term of fixed loans.

There's also Stats NZ building work put in place data for Q2 to cover off the other key topic of the moment - construction. While caution remains, there appears to be signs of optimism, though we also wouldn't get carried away with any rays of sunshine foreshadowing the dawn of summer.

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Kelvin's article is the main source of conversation this week, as the recent lift in upsizers and smaller investors takes focus, as well as a look into who are securing recent new builds.

This also flows well into a chat about the latest RBNZ lending data looking into market reaction from looser LVRs and DTIs. Another key point of note reamins the higher levels of bank switchers too.

From a broader economic perspective there's a promising result from the recent business confidence survey, but expectations still remain in check from both consumer confidence and filled jobs data. Plus, there's also reason to remain cautious of the encouraging building consent figures.

Lastly, a deeper look into regional business costs comes courtesy of a question from Nathan and the granularity of the Cordell construction cost data.

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This week, Nick chats to Cam Muggeridge, Adviser for Loan Market Central, in Auckland.

Cam has extensive knowledge of the lending sector, insurance, and property development industry. With his experience coming up through the advisor world, Cam has a thorough understanding of the home loan process and a passion for making that process easy to understand and as stress-free as possible for his clients.

In this chat with Nick, Cam outlays how the market has reacted to the recent fall in the OCR. How it has seen enquiries from both new and existing clients interested in making the reduction work for them.

Cam also details what the discussion looks like when it comes to breaking fixed rates with banks and how to manage expectations and stress levels in the new decreasing interest rate environment.

With his background in property development, Cam also offers insight into his conversations and expectations for the still-vulnerable construction sector.

Lastly Cam ponders the impact of open banking on NZ.

Cam can be contacted on cameron.muggeridge@loanmarket.co.nz, 027 687 5785 or google for him and the rest of the team at Loan Market Central.

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This week, off the back of the release of the latest Monthly Chart Pack, Nick and Kelvin discuss the stats of listings on the market, both for sale and for rent.

There are so many factors to consider, including migration, investor regulations, local job markets and first home buyer activity and the truth is there's no easy explanation of why the markets are where they are currently at. The latest read of data can help though.

Elsewhere there's REINZ latest release to pore over and a bunch of economic data, essentially reiterating the struggling economy.

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5 days later and the OCR cut to 5.25% still feels like big news. Since the call from the RBNZ, Nick and Kelvin have both been out in the market gathering responses from the market and today Nick details some figures to help answer the question "how far do interest rates need to fall before the dent-to-income restrictions kick in?"

Kelvin then takes us through the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability report for Q2 and plenty of macro-economic releases, including a few of the 'softer', but more frequent data series that the RBNZ are also paying closer attention to.

This month's video is now on Youtube.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released MPS and with it, a drop in the OCR.

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With the Labour market stats covered off in the reactionary pod last week, Nick and Kelvin's minds turn quickly to the big release from the RBNZ this week, their Monetary Policy Statement.

There's has been plenty of speculation, criticism and advice about what to do but ultimately it's hard not to see the Bank being consistent with their plan to err on the side of caution and delay any loosening until inflation is truly under control, with concrete data to support it.

In other news, the Pain & Gain report for Q2 reflected the market in retreat and first home buyers remain active in comparison to other buyers.

Lastly, how lucky were the ABs and NZ Rugby that Olympic gold-medal fever took over to detract from a pretty woeful performance in front of a disappointing crowd in Wellington? Not that it bothered Nick and his son, in attendance, too much.

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This week, Nick chats to Michelle Isemonger, Adviser for Loan Market East, in Auckland.

Michelle brings a youthful exuberance to being an advisor while drawing extensively from the successful experience around her.

Nick and Michelle cover a lot in this chat, from first home buyer priorities to mover preferences, all the way to what's going on with interest rates and the basis for deciding how long to fix your mortgage.

Plenty of regulatory chat in there too, from the shortening of Brightline test to all the CCCFA changes over the years, this discussion will give all listeners plenty of ammo when it comes to understanding and discussing the current housing market.

Michelle can be contacted on michelle.isemonger@loanmarket.co.nz or google for her and Team Patton.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released Labour Market stats for Q2.

Nick reckons they're pretty 'meh' and Kelvin's take is that it probably reduces the chance of a cut to the OCR, as some bank economists have called for, next week.

Recent volatility across global financial markets, particularly Japan, has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works, but ultimately we expect the RBNZ to hold the line in the MPS next Wednesday. Though they are likely to use the statement to reset expectations for inflation and monetary policy for the rest of the year.

Things will then turn pretty quickly, to how many and how fast cuts are going to come, once the RBNZ primes the market for the first one.

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In exciting news for the CoreLogic Research team, and fellow housing data nerds, we've now got a brand new index to measuring housing value change over time!

The launch of the CoreLogic hedonic Home Value Index firstly reported a further fall in property values in July, the fifth month in a row for the 'renewed downturn'. This brought with it plenty of discussion as to how to classify the weakness which then flowed on to some of the detail into the index itself - including what even is a hedonic regression index? Ultimately it's a better way to measure value over time. Nick and Kelvin cover off some of the detail, but there's plenty of technical documentation on the CoreLogic website, along with the weekly back series and plenty of FAQ to satisfy the data scientist and modelling analysts out there.

In other property and macroeconomic news the latest filled jobs data offers a good preview of the official labour market stats out this week and Nick add a bit of 'actual new build' data to the reporting of building consents.

Plus, business confidence data, RBNZ lending figures and a token nod to the ever-entertaining Olympics following a weekend where the guys' kids consider if they could be Olympic athletes in the trampoline or 100m sprint!

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This week the guys chat about June lending data from the Reserve Bank and improving consumer confidence data. There's always a bit below the surface to pay attention too so the quieter week for data allows for a deeper look into these data.

Also, what's behind NZ townhouse boom? That's the question Kelvin posed as he delved into the Market Trends dataset to understand the impact on overall stock of all the townhouses we've been consenting and building, particularly in Auckland.

Then a look ahead to the launch of the new Hedonic Home Value Index and plenty of other data coming your way.

Lastly, Nick passes on some of the wisdom gained from Dominick Stephen's latest presentation - including a new term for the lads -"Slowbilisation".

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Following their own BSOD issues amid the CrowdStrike nightmare, the guys finally get a chance to catch up to review the week that was in the property market.

As it turns out it was a good chance to take stock of the overall market, amid the release of the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and monthly video.

REINZ' latest data for June also provided an opportunity to assess the latest movements in Auckland and following the initial reactionary podcast, Nick and Kelvin wrap up the market response to the CPI inflation results for Q2. Upshot - interest rate cuts will be sooner.

Lastly, and there'll be more to follow on this one, the new CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index was previewed in a webinar last week, ahead of go live on August 1, so keep a look out for that one.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI data for Q2.

Headline inflation is now just above the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss. Most importantly, what will the RBNZ Monetary Policy make of it when they next meet on 14 August?

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Every week seems to be coming with a little bit more hope of relief for mortgage holders and this week is no different. Following the change in tone of the RBNZ's OCR statement last week, we can now add weak economic data in the form of the NZ Activity Index for June, migration turning negative and further weakness for the property market.

The construction industry continues to go through tough times too, though at least from a consumers perspective this means the cost to build is decreasing - as the Cordell Cost Construction for Q2 illustrated.

All up it's been a busy week of property data, including Reserve Bank data on the tenure of loans chosen by borrowers in May, rental price figures, CoreLogic Buyer Classification for June and hot off the press REINZ sales for June.

Plus, Nick supplied RNZ with some data on 'accidental landlords'.

That's it on a tough weekend for the English (rugby, football) and a good one for the Spanish (tennis, football, Sail GP)…

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This week, Nick chats to Dan Bailey, Adviser for Loan Market Capital & Coast.

Before Nick and Dan get into the advisor world, including Dan's experience of the current market, the three guys quickly review the just-released OCR review. In the review, the RBNZ held the rate at 5.5%, but notable softened their stance of the economic environment, increasing chances of a 'sooner than later' cut to the OCR.

Dan has a long and successful career in banking and finance and with his knowledge of the Lower Hutt and Wellington markets in particular, he has great insight into the impact of regulation, government intervention and a costly new build market.

Plenty of food for thought as we navigate a still-challenging and always intriguing property market.

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There's plenty of property data and news to get into this week as Nick welcomes back Kelvin from a week away from the pod.

The CoreLogic House Price Index showed further struggles for the housing market, particularly in Auckland, but perhaps the biggest news came from the Housing Minister who detailed the Government's 'Going for Growth' strategy which is all about improving the availability of land for more properties - going up and out.

There's also filled jobs data providing insight on our softening labour market and dwelling consent figures illustrating the still-in-decline construction sector.

And it's a big week coming up - OCR decision on Wednesday, which will come with a reactionary and guest podcast special.

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With Kelvin away, Nick calls up Ed McKnight, Resident Economist at Opes Partners to discuss everything that's going on in the market right now.

Nick and Ed talk through the couple of data releases from last week which are limited to ANZ's confidence survey data and RBNZ lending figures, but they provide plenty of fodder for conversation on the broader market dynamics. Why is confidence so low and where did the big jump in new lending come from?

Being 1 July there are also a number of changes which affect the market from today, including the shortening of the Brightline test, introduction of DTI limits and loosening of LVR restrictions. Nick and Ed talk through all the implications of those changes as well as expectations for the OCR and interest rates.

Throw in the news of Resimac ceasing new lending operations in NZ and you've got a broad AND deep analysis of the NZ mortgage market as well as an assessment of both investor and owner occupier prospects.

Check out Ed's work and the team at Opes Partners at https://www.opespartners.co.nz/

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How real was the property value growth experienced at the end of 2023? Off the back of the CoreLogic housing chart pack release as well as the REINZ HPI for May, Nick and Kelvin question whether we're in a renewed downturn, or whether it's essentially same one as last year.

Sounds a bit grim for homeowners and add in a still-struggling economy (despite GDP expansion in the first quarter of the year) plus a few isolated incidents (ferry running aground, Northland power tower down, air force plane being unreliable) and it appears a pretty bleak picture for Kiwi right now.

In more promising news the Government's proposal to make it easier to add granny flats to existing properties sounds sensible, albeit unlikely a game changer.

The monthly video is now live, give the extra podcasts last week a listen and keep an eye out for Kelvin's "thoughts from the road" coming this week.

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This week, Nick chats to Nigel Ho, owner of and mortgage advisor at Agile Financial Services in Christchurch.

Nigel has a long and successful career in the financial services industry with a unique experience in helping new migrants understand their financial situation, especially how it applies to the possibility of buying a home in NZ.

Nigel's recent interactions also include with Mum & Dad investors keen to test their ability to buy an investment property and Nick also asks about the potential impacts of the removal of the first home buyer grants.

Nigel is a proud, parochial Cantabrian who knows his stuff, providing insight into the most important topics of conversations with clients which includes considerations of where to next for interest rates.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released GDP data for Q1.

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More property market data this week and with it more evidence of the stuttering recovery, to the point where the old 'dead cat bounce' conversation has reared its head.

The latest CoreLogic Mapping the Market interactive report showing 221 of the 938 suburbs experiencing a drop in property values of at least 1%, including ten which fell by at least 5% over the three months to June.

In other data releases from last week, net migration is growing but the rate of growth is slowing - particularly due to Kiwi leaving our shores. Aligning to the theme of slower growth, rental prices also follow the trend, and there'll be plenty of eyes on this week's GDP release for Q1 to see how the broader economy has performed.

There's also RBNZ data about the fixed rate loan tenure people are choosing - why are people staying at the shorter end and what could it mean?

Keep an eye out for the monthly chart pack and monthly video, both out this week.

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With no external data releases to consume and interpret, this week it's all about CoreLogic data. Lead by the CoreLogic House Price Index for May, Nick and Kelvin discuss the results, in particular the recent decline in Auckland property values.

Given the chance to go a bit deeper into the results, market drivers like listings, construction and buyer activity - thanks to Buyer Classification data for May - all help to paint the picture of what's driving (or not driving) the market right now and what could be in store for the rest of this year.

Add in comparisons in value to the recent peak, the even-more-recent-trough and pre-COVID and you've got a statistics bonanza!

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This audio is the recording of an in-person event, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association titled "The Elephant in the Housing Room: What the Experts See When the Rest of Us Aren't Looking".

Moderated by Nick Goodall, Head of Research at CoreLogic NZ, featuring a panel of Opteon MD, Richard Vaughan, Chief Executive of the Property Council, Leonie Freeman and Chief Economist at CoreLogic NZ, Kelvin Davidson.

This covers a number of topics that haven't generally got as much coverage as they deserve, such as the impacts of climate change on housing, the opportunity of build-to-rent, the difficulties of infrastructure investment and the generational changes which will have an influence over the next few decades.

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This week there's a lot of chat about lending. Following the RBNZ confirming the framework and timing of the debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, coming 1 July, Kelvin gives and overview of the details as well as potential implications.

Showing off his Nostradamus qualities this came hot on the heels of his own analysis of the latest lending stats in his 10 things to know about the mortgage market right now article.

There's also a bit of chat about the Government's Budget 2024, though in truth it was pretty uneventful when it comes to housing implications - tax cuts and their potential impact on inflation being the main topic of conversation.

Elsewhere there was filled jobs data, business confidence survey results and a bit of a quirk in the latest building consent figures.

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This week, Nick chats to Aaron Cooke, adviser from the award winning Loan Market Highland Park Office.

Aaron is a passionate and articulate advisor with his finger on the pulse of all things property.

Today's discussion covers a myriad of topics - honing in on first home buyer mentality and behaviour, the impact of the 'transaction chain' slowing down activity, the state of the new build market and some great detail on the Council buy-out process following the flooding events of yester-year.

All the topical influences are covered too - from the Reserve Bank's DTIs, to the removal of first home buyer grants and the market shift in favour of finance-qualified buyers.

Plenty to chew over and as per usual we're always keen on your feedback so please get in touch.

Give Aaron a google

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After a round up of the MPS and removal of first home buyer grants, as first covered in last week's reactionary pod, Nick and Kelvin discuss the potential re-emergence of movers (thanks to the monthly chart pack).

It's definitely too early to call it a trend just yet, but the settings are there for those that would have liked to have moved in the past few years to now get out and do it (affordability calculations pending!).

Kelvin also reports on consumers being a little 'less unhappy', but importantly feeling the easing of price pressures, while the latest RBNZ lending data is the topic of conversation for Kelvin's Property Market Pulse this week.

Looking ahead plenty of focus will be on the Government budget (2pm Thursday) though we don't think there'll be much new for the housing market that hasn't already been released (FHB grants, bright-line, interest deductibility).

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It's been a busy day for property news, and in this shorter, reactionary episode, Nick and Kelvin first discuss the Reserve Bank's tough-talking monetary policy statement, then quickly cover off the announcement that first home grants have been canned.

In a nutshell, inflation is still a problem, and OCR cuts seem off the table until 2025 - meaning 'higher for longer' mortgage rates too.

Regarding first home grants, the decision will be disappointing for some would-be first home buyers (FHBs), but there are still lots of other factors in their favour, and the market still looks generally positive in the next little while for FHBs.

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Still pretty fresh from the incredible game, but disappointing result, from the Phoenix on the weekend, Nick gets it all off his chest early to then refocus ahead of a big week for the property market with the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday.

It comes as the range of economic data recently released is a bit mixed. Migration is slowing, but still high, rental growth is also slowing but the economy is showing further signs of resilience.

From a property market perspective - most recent data has been decidedly weak - particularly the HPI from REINZ, causing a rethink to Nick's 2024 expectation and consideration of just how underwhelming 2024 could actually be.

The full Pain & Gain report for Q1 is available on the CoreLogic website and the monthly chart pack will be up soon, as will the monthly video on the Youtube channel.

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This week we check back to see what first home buyers have been up to, including detailing our Q1 First Home Buyer Report and April's buyer classification data.

Kelvin also details the stats of how long borrowers are fixing for, showing the short term is still favoured, though borrowers should definitely do some forward projections of what they're expecting or hoping for when the rate comes up next.

Then, it's a look ahead to busy week ahead, which includes a special live podcast event, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association on Tuesday 14 May. Use the code NICKANDKEL to get your free tickets.

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After the short reactionary pod for both the RBNZ Financial Stability Review (FSR), which was pretty stock-standard, and the Q1 labour market stats - which were a little more interesting, this week's pod is shorter than it otherwise would have been.

First topic of conversation is the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which provided further more compelling evidence of a struggling housing market, particularly in Auckland (to Nick's surprise).

With more time to digest the labour market stats, Nick then states the potential impact it might have on the OCR later in the year before Kelvin rounds up the underwhelming business confidence survey insights and building consents data.

And what of Capital Economics' prediction for the Cash Rate in Aussie to see another lift this month? If true what does it say for the RBNZ's approach to "higher, sooner, faster and for longer", when it comes to the OCR here in NZ?

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Hot off the press, Nick and (a travelling) Kelvin catch up to quickly give their take on the just-released Financial Stability Report (FSR) from the Reserve Bank and official Labour Market stats for Q1 2024 from Stats NZ.

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One for the hopeful first home buyers

In this guest special, Nick speaks to Geri Fraser and Heiko Jonkers from Westpac. Geri is the Product lead for Housing and Heiko the Social and Affordable Housing Guru!

The main topics of interest discuss are the shared equity and leasehold options which are often misunderstood or simply not known about. Listen in to hear about what these options are and how Westpac have dedicated considerable commitment to ensure more New Zealanders can take that first step into the housing market.

This includes understanding the international experiences and lessons learned to bring unique opportunities to life and how local councils, Government agencies and Iwi provide support for those prospective buyers to make their first purchase a reality.

As always the key is to speak to someone in the know and the Westpac first home loans page is a great start with plenty of passionate mobile mortgage managers keen to pass on their knowledge and help navigate what is so often a daunting process and huge life decision.

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There’s always plenty to talk about in the property market, but this week’s discussion basically sets the scene for a big week of data and announcements which could potentially mean a meaty pod next Monday!

The guys start by discussing the latest Buyer Classification data, which showed that first home buyers (FHBs) remained a key presence in March, and that also ties in to the latest mortgage lending figures from the Reserve Bank. Low deposit lending remains relatively restricted – certainly well under the maximum speed limits – but FHBs are still making good use of the system.

Attention then turns to the next few days …. CoreLogic House Price Index for April set to go public on Wednesday, just before the Financial Stability Report at 9am the same day, and the Q1 labour market figures at 10:45. Could the FSR finally detail the rules for debt to income ratio caps? On the labour market, the unemployment rate has probably risen further in Q1, but it might be about more labour supply, rather than mass job losses.

There's some great stuff in this week's episode, but also brace yourselves for a lot to talk about next week!

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Despite last week's well-received reactionary pod to the latest CPI inflation data, Nick and Kelvin can't help but dig a bit deeper into the data to get a steer on where things, in particular the OCR, are going.

Other topics this week include the CoreLogic monthly chart pack, which focussed on borrowers preference to fix their mortgages short as well as the patchy nature of this recovery.

That patchiness, and arguably weakness was backed up by the release of the REINZ index and sales tracking.

On the flip side of all the negativity, Kelvin reports that early calcs from the NZAC indicate we may have re-exited the recession, but we all know high net migration (new data on that front too) has a large part to play in that too.

Lastly, there's a mention of the CCCFA announcement - not much detail to analyse and even less impact likely, due to high interest rates being the key constraint on funding lines right now.

Check out the monthly video and Kelvin's appearance on Tova O'Brien's Stuff podcast.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data.

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After quickly passing over the latest OCR decision from the RBNZ and one more construction release to add to last week's construction heavy chat, Nick and Kelvin delve into the current and future rental market.

There's rental price change to discuss, the reversal of some tenancy laws and the latest buyer classification data to assist.

Add in a bit on the economy and inflation ahead of the Q1 CPI data out this week and you've got a comprehensive review of the market. All in less than 40 mins.

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The dominant theme this week is construction – from the Cordell Construction Cost Index showing subdued cost growth to start 2024, through to new dwelling consents in February (still falling), to Stats NZ’s experimental dataset looking at completion timeframes and the number of code compliance certificates issued (dwelling completions) – we have it all!

Not only that, but the Government also announced its intention to allow more imported building products to be used in NZ dwellings, with the aim of controlling cost pressures.

The guys also cover off last week’s CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and filled jobs data for February – both releases were a little mixed.

It’s another busy one this week too, with more mortgage lending data due, along with CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures and Stats NZ rent figures for March. The Reserve Bank will top it off with another cash rate decision on Wednesday, which is likely to be no change at 5.5%.

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Coming to you on Easter Monday, Nick and Kelvin catch up to discuss the week that was in the property market. Starting off with Kelvin's latest article, analysing the new build premium (using the CoreLogic Market Trends dataset).

In macro-economic news, Kelvin rounds up the latest lending data from the RBNZ, including the flow of loans and state of terms left on total stock. There's also consumer and business confidence survey data to digest, which was likely affected by confirmation of the recession, proving we all pay attention to the media headlines.

Plus, what was up with the RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr's media appearance, seemingly paving the way for rate cuts?

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This week it's all about the economy (outside of a bit of Sail GP chat of course), after the release of the GDP data for Q4 last year confirmed we're officially back in a recession, the second time in a year for the classic double dip. What does it all mean though and what does the more timely NZAC tell us about how 2024 has started?

Kelvin also speaks about the CoreLogic release of the monthly chart pack, where the property investor situation was a core focus.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also paid a visit to the CoreLogic offices recently, as part of their usual fact finding mission to put together their latest Article IV report. Taxes once again were a topic of interest - with housing in the spotlight.

The lingering question though is how and when could we really see a fundamental shift in the NZ tax system? Following the leader of the opposition, Chris Hipkins opening the door on capital gains/wealth/land taxes again over the weekend though, perhaps it's sooner than we'd originally thought?

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The main release last week was the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data - a suburb-level view of median values and change over time. Kelvin offers up the insights from the update and some of the conversations that it sparked with the media.

Then from the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, Nick and Kelvin discuss the early signs of first home buyers facing a bit more competition from other buyers - particularly multiple property owners, but will it last?

Elsewhere, Kelvin wraps the macro economic data from Stats NZ, namely migration and rental figures, plus there's the REINZ house price index to analyse, including a couple of larger centres where values fell in February.

Plus, check out the CoreLogic NZ Youtube page for the latest monthly video.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

On this guest episode Nick speaks with Joanie Rankin, Mobile Mortgage Manager at Westpac.

Joanie has been a Mobile Mortgage Manager (MMM) for 3 years but has been in the home lending industry for 6 years. Joanie has been with Westpac for 9 years now in various customer facing/service roles and has an in-depth knowledge across several fields of banking. Joanie is very passionate and finds it hugely rewarding to help people into their first homes and loves being a part of their home buying journey.

In the podcast Nick and Joanie really hone in on the first home buying experience - how triple M's help navigate the daunting and sometimes complex process and also some of the specific assistance that Westpac offer (including for Māori and Iwi).

What are some of the misconceptions people have when wanting to buy their own home and similarly what are some of the myths people hold on to when it comes to dealing direct with the bank? Those are just a couple of questions Joanie answers in a conversation that should be a 'must-listen' for all aspiring first home buyers.

For more information about Westpac first home buyer assistance, their MMMs, and how they can help, visit their website westpac.co.nz

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Confirmation over the weekend of the reinstatement of interest deductibility for property investors is the key feature for today's podcast. It was a busy Sunday and Monday morning for Kelvin especially, as journos scramble to cover the Government release.

Details were as expected but the focus was on the potential implications? What could it mean for rental supply, rental prices and even new build commitments? Nick and Kelvin work through it all to get your week started.

Outside of that, there's the fourth annual Women & Property report to cover and the latest RBNZ stats on the terms selected by mortgage borrowers recently.

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This week, to coincide with International Women's Day 2024, Nick speaks to an incredible, award winning leader within the banking and finance industry, Amanda Young.

Amanda is an accomplished leader with an impressive 30+ year background in distribution across Personal and Business Banking, and Insurance.

Amanda is known for her ability to implement solutions and remove complexity, while improving the performance of large teams. Amanda’s engaging and collaborative approach to problem solving has contributed to her success. Since stepping into the Head of Third Party Distribution role, Amanda advocates for the adviser industry within ASB and is motivated by continuous improvement to make a positive difference for our advisers and their customers.

Listen in to hear about Amanda's incredible experience, leadership lessons (including staying in the Softball 'Strike zone') and her advice for future leaders.

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This week the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and OCR call are in the spotlight. Though most of the market expected the OCR to stay flat, ANZ's surprising recent forecast of two more increases caused a bit of doubt among commentators, and in the end the RBNZ probably softened their stance more than most expected. No one is getting carried away though, with the OCR to remain suitably contractionary for a while yet.

Meanwhile our HPI for Feb was released, with growth continuing to moderate and inconsistency across the country continuing to feature.

The release did however lead to some headline grabbing stuff from Newshub, after Kelvin politely disagreed with ex-PM John Key's assertion that house prices will double in the next 10-years. Needless to say Nick took the opportunity to stir the pot a bit!

Elsewhere Minister Bishop's plans to flood the market with developable land seem laudable but a bit optimistic - certainly conversation starting especially when combined with hopes to drag the house price to income ratio back towards 4.

Plenty to dig into for the start of the week - and there'll be more to come later in the week with International Women's Day on the horizon.

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Clearly the hottest topic this week is whether or not the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate at 2pm Wednesday (28th February). The guys give their takes on this issue, and ultimately, even if the OCR isn’t increased this week, a further rise down the track remains a possibility. Inflation isn’t dead yet!

Meanwhile, the discussion of recent data is focused on our latest NZ Housing Chart Pack, which highlighted a very slow start to the year for property sales activity, and the NZ Activity Index for January – which suggested that the economy is ‘ticking over’; good for jobs, but might underpin some inflation and interest rate pressure.

Also upcoming this week in terms of data: mortgage lending for January, filled jobs, ANZ business and consumer confidence, and new dwelling consents. Generally, the tone of these figures should be slightly positive, although the slide in dwelling consents is obviously a bit more concerning.

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Quite a bit of the data over the past week has reiterated the idea that this recovery, while ongoing, could prove to be patchy/variable/uneven – or whichever synonym you like.

According to the latest CoreLogic Report, affordability has improved on some measures since 2021, but not on others – e.g. mortgage payments as a % of gross average household income are still 49%. And most measures actually got a little worse again in Q4 2023 as house prices started to rise.

Recent data on property sales volumes backs up the ‘patchiness’ theme, with activity across agent-led and private deals, only 2% higher in January than the same month in 2023 – which was itself a 40-year low for that month of the year. Clearly, volumes remains soft.

Meanwhile, net migration remains high (albeit easing), and this is pressuring the supply/demand balance for tenants, pushing up rents.

The guys also looked at the latest stats on debt to income ratios and found ‘more of the same’ – DTIs are currently under control, thanks to high mortgage rates.

This week, it’s reasonably quiet for data releases, only watching for the NZ Activity Index for January on Thursday. It might be ‘middle of the road’.

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At face value, a rise in unemployment could never be a good thing …. but as the guys discuss this week, it’s a bit more nuanced than that.

For a start, last week’s rise in the unemployment rate wasn’t driven by job losses, but instead a larger increase in the pool of available workers. And a 4% unemployment rate is still very low anyway. Those are the ‘good’ things.

But on the flipside, could the smaller-than-expected rise in unemployment actually lead to another increase in the official cash rate? Increased employment supports the property market, but another OCR rise would be a potential headwind.

Meanwhile, this week’s episode also covers the latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report for Q4 2023, showing early signs of a turning point for property resale performance. Buyer Classification for January is also discussed, as well as the data for December showing that most people are choosing to fix their mortgages for shorter periods.

There was also good news in the form of the latest National Construction Pipeline Report, which suggested that the current slowdown in new dwelling consents (and future construction activity) isn’t likely to reach the depths of the post-GFC episode. That’s positive in terms of reducing the risk of housing supply shortages.

This week, look out for the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, REINZ January figures, December net migration, January rent prices, and Q4 DTI stats.

Our new, monthly article series for Trademe is also discussed, and can be seen here.

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This week, Nick chats to Paulette Trotter, director and advisor at Loan Market Auckland, who was the number 1 mortgage advisor in NZ in 2023.

Paulette's experience in the industry is vast and hugely successful. In this discussion Paulette discusses how the property market has kicked off in 2024, with first home buyers remaining a consistent presence.

She speaks about some of the differences across the Auckland market, including interest in new build properties and the relative importance of tax changes and interest rates to potential property investors.

Nick and Paulette also discuss the roles and influence of both the new Government and the RBNZ, including the proposed debt-to-income limits and loosening of the loan to value ratio restrictions.

Lastly, Paulette offers up a few keys to success for her and her team Loan Market and a few tidbits of advice for good measure too.

Contact Paulette at:
https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/paulette-trotter
P: 021 820 473
E: paulette.trotter@loanmarket.co.nz

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The guys kick off this week’s discussion with a look at our house price index for January, which showed a smaller rise in values (0.4%) than in both November and December. With mortgage rates still pretty high, a mixture of weaker and stronger months for property values shouldn’t be a surprise. So then it’s just a choice of which adjective/synonym to use to describe patchiness!

Two other notable items last week were Andrew Bayly’s announcement that the Government will be looking to loosen the CCCFA rules again over the next few months – adding to some impetus for the property market – but also Paul Conway’s (RBNZ Chief Economist) speech which poured cold water on the idea that the official cash rate might be cut soon.

Elsewhere, mortgage lending activity continues to rise from a low base, consumer and business confidence are generally trending higher (but not consistently), while dwelling consents are still falling – and HUD was in the news for suggesting that the annual total, currently 37,000, could dip to around 32,000.

Coming up this week – big labour market news (unemployment rate likely to be higher but due to more workers not job losses), mortgage lending by the term of the loan chosen, and CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures for January.

All in all, plenty to discuss – oh, and the cricket at Bay Oval too.

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More heat across the country and plenty of data to talk about this week too, starting with the latest inflation figures for Q4 2023.

The CPI/inflation trend is definitely in the right direction, but with domestic/non-tradable prices such as rents and council rates still a bit problematic, the OCR isn’t likely to be cut in the near term. But cuts are possibly on the cards for the second half of the year, with some falls in shorter term fixed mortgage rates also likely.

With the dust settling on the RBNZ’s announcement about LVRs and DTIs, Nick and Kelvin also give a quick update this week, which reiterates that there could be a net boost to property activity around the middle of the year, but also that borrowers who are currently above the DTI limits shouldn’t panic – the rules aren’t retrospective.

Plenty of other data to cover too – including last week’s December NZ Activity Index (ok-ish), and then this week’s filled jobs for December (Monday), mortgage lending for December (Monday), foreign buyers for Q4 (Tuesday), ANZ business confidence (Wed.) and consumer confidence (Fri.) for January, and new dwelling consents for December (Friday). All to be covered in detail next week!

Also check out our latest Housing Chart Pack, highlighting the strong market share for first home buyers in 2023.

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This week Nick and Kelvin kick off with a discussion of the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which went out in the same week as the REINZ and QV measures. The guys discuss the results from our index, as well as some of the similarities and differences between all the measures, some which were highlighted in a Stuff explainer article.

Last week also saw Stats NZ release the latest migration and rent price data – which generally showed further strength (especially for rents), although there are some caveats to note with the latest migration result.

Being recorded on Tuesday (rather than usual Monday, due to Wellington Anniversary), this also allowed the guys to comment ‘hot off the press’ on the Reserve Bank’s latest DTI and LVR consultation. In a nutshell, DTIs are still on track for the middle of the year, with LVRs set to be loosened a bit at the same time. Even more detail to come over the next week in written form and our next podcast.

There’s also a preview of the upcoming NZ Activity Index, and of course the Q4 inflation figures – a very important release!

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We're back for 2024 and it's straight into a look back at data releases so far this year.

Firstly the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4 2023 showed cost inflation is moderating (not declining) and with building consent data for November to also discuss there's a bit of time given to preview the health and prospects for the construction industry.

Jobs growth data from Stats NZ is also reviewed - still a key underpinning factor for the housing market, while the latest RBNZ release looks at the terms borrowers chose in November.

Additionally December's Buyer Classification data shows first home buyers didn't take a break prior to Christmas picking up a close-to-record 27% of sales over the month.

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In rounding out the year, there's coverage of the Best of the Best report, the upcoming chart pack and the now-live monthly video.

Plus, amongst a number of data releases there were a couple of RBNZ papers to discuss.

Topics covered today:

Migration
Rental price growth
GDP economic data for Q3
REINZ HPI
Sales volumes
Loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) regulations
Debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions

Plus, Nick joined The Weekend Collective Radio Show on Saturday for their regular one our property focus on Newstalk ZB.

Have a safe and relaxing summer break, see you back on Monday the 15th of January.

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Call it what you will, this week it's all about money, and it's importance when it comes to the property market. Kicked off, due to Kelvin's article on the 10 things to know about mortgage debt right now, Nick and Kelvin detail how the cost and availability of credit truly make the property world go around.

This is true for investors, first home buyers and other owner occupiers moving house as affordability remains squeezed due to high prices and high interest rates. Nick takes the opportunity to delve into the latest Buyer Classification series for each of the main centres and reveals some of the key differences.

Kelvin also covers off the latest RBNZ data on how long borrowers are fixing their mortgage rates/payments for.

The main thing to look out for this week is the Q3 GDP data, but our annual best of the best report will also be available from Wednesday.

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Today, Nick chats to Rodney King, Mortgage Advisor for Loan Market Agile, based out of Christchurch.
Rodney has been in the Banking and Finance industry for a number of years and has exceptional experience in finding the right bank or lender for every type of borrower.

In a wide ranging chat, Nick and Rodney cover off the current market dynamics, weighing up the impact of the new Government and the RBNZ's monetary policy decisions.

First home buyers are a regular topic of interest but it's other owner occupiers looking to move house that are a source of intrigue for Rodney. Investors too are discussed, especially given recent policy announcements and of course there's plenty of hype for the Christchurch market which continues to look more favourable than many other main centres from an affordability perspective.

Contact Rodney at:
https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/agile/about-us/rodney-king/
P: 0274 555 863
E: rodney.king@loanmarket.co.nz

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Two key releases were out last week, with the first being the last Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the year from the RBNZ. As covered in Kelvin's MPS commentary, it was more about tough talk, not action, with the OCR on hold, but an increase to the forecast peak. "No tolerance for inflation surprises" summarises the RBNZ's take right now, hence the warning shot across the bow.

The other important data updated was the CoreLogic HPI release which reaffirmed the recovery in action, including general strength across the main centres.

Otherwise a busy week for data included the NZAC (economic activity), business AND consumer confidence and jobs data, as well as dwelling consents figures.

Plus, Nick and Kelvin try to close the loop on all the proposed housing related policy from the new Government, including an update on the shortening of the brightline test and supply-side considerations.

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Following the confirmation of the Sixth National Government of NZ Nick and Kelvin delve into the policy agreements (and disagreements) and probable implications.

They cover the ruling out of the foreign buyer tax, the (faster) reinstatement of interest cost deductibility, the (likely) shortening of the bright-line test, changes to the tenancy laws and the modification of the RBNZ mandate to focus solely on price stability (inflation).

Elsewhere, Kelvin re-summarises the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and the latest lending data from the RBNZ.

And if you're interested in sponsoring Nick's fundraising effort (running 60kms) for Movember then you can do so here.

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The latest Corelogic Pain & Gain report always provides an interesting lens to look through the market with and this quarter is no different. On top of the usual comparisons, Nick and Kelvin take the time to look back a bit further to analyse any differences to previous downturns - spoiler alert, it's quite different this time around.

Other topics for discussion this week include the latest migration release from Stats NZ and also rental data. The RBNZ published the latest lending data by DTI, which always creates a bit of chat between the lads, and REINZ October report also creates a bit of content to cover.

Elsewhere there's a 'new' more timely view of CPI, though it's not fully comprehensive so Kelvin gives his take on how best to digest it.

The November video is also live on Youtube.

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This week it's (mostly) all about first home buyers. There's plenty of reason for that - firstly we released our 6-monthly first home buyer report, revealing what they're buying, where they're buying and how much they're paying for it as well as a little bit of insight into how they're doing it.

First home buyers were also the topic of Nick's appearance on the Newstalk ZB Weekend Collective show, with host Franceska Rudkin.

Plus, a new report from new financial series provider Aera added another layer of depth to the 'time-to-deposit' affordability measure for first home buyers, by including forecasted figures of income, house prices and interest rates. Though as Nick and Kelvin discuss all forecasts require caveats and this one is no different.

As mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tomorrow, Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

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Plenty of data and information to chew through this week, with the CoreLogic House Price Index kicking things off, and it's official - the downturn is over! A few caveats exist of course, but at a nationwide level the lads are calling it.

The latest Financial Stability Report was in some ways stock standard, but interesting at the same time. Nick and Kelvin explain why, especially when it comes to the potential introduction of debt-to-income restrictions.

From an economic perspective we also received the Labour Market statistics for Q3, including an update to the all-important unemployment rate. Additionally the NZAC data for Q3 is now complete, giving Kelvin the chance to outlay his expectations for the official GDP figures which are still some 6 weeks away. Throw in business confidence data and dwelling consent figures for September and it's an data degustation!

Plus of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

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After a sombre discussion of the weekend’s rugby result, Nick and Kelvin launch into the usual analysis of all the property market data, which has been coming in thick and fast lately. Recent population figures confirm the influence of migration in Auckland, and the effects this is having on rental markets – not just there, but around the country too.

Meanwhile, we’ve recently had new mortgage lending (a bit patchy), consumer confidence (good and bad), and foreign buyer data (still low) to digest. Last week’s Pulse article looking at investor activity by size is also covered off.

Filled jobs numbers are hot off the press, and are still showing growth – a good sign ahead of this week’s official labour market stats for Q3 on Wednesday. This week there’s a steady stream of other data and releases to look out for too – dwelling consents, the NZAC, and business confidence on Tuesday, as well as the latest Financial Stability Report on Wednesday. Will the FSR finally set out the actual rules and timing for possible DTI restrictions next year?

In amongst all of that, the October CoreLogic House Price Index will also be released (media on Tuesday under embargo until Wednesday), and as a teaser, it’s showing a rise in average values ….

And of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Today, we welcome Shona Mookerjee from Insurance Market to talk everything insurance. Often seen as an afterthought and a begrudging purchase, insurance is an important product to support not only homeowners but every person throughout their different life stages.

Shona is a passionate, welcoming and incredibly knowledgeable financial advisor and takes Nick through a bit of Insurance 101 and a day in the life of an insurance advisor. There are a few key topics which Shona speaks about which are worth following up on, they are the 3%, 3%, 3% rule, levelling insurance and redundancy cover.

For good measure, and because Shona will also use the recording on her social channels, Nick provides a bit of insight int o CoreLogic's role in the industry and his 'view in two' (minutes), looking ahead for the property market.

Shona can be reached across each of the social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, email or through the Insurance Market website.

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Following the release of the Consumers Price Index (CPI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin dig deep into the detail of the inflation data, what all the terms mean, why it matters and what influence it could have over the Reserve Bank's next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on November 29.

There's also the latest CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack and Monthly video which provide a decent line in the sand for where the property market sits as we prepare to welcome in a new Government. This includes commentary on the strength of first home buyers recently and the listings situation.

And of course, as mentioned at the end of the episode we have 20 tickets (each worth $50) to NZ Property Market podcast listeners to join Nick at the upcoming NZ Property Roundtable: Will we see a post-election property market rally? Tuesday, 14th November, at the Parnell Jubilee Hall, Auckland, hosted by the Auckland Property Investors Association.

Go here and enter the code NICKANDKEL to get your free ticket. First 20 are free!

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Aside from a 'quick' breakdown of the All Blacks incredible match and victory over the Irish in the World Cup, it's straight into the result of the General Election where National were the clear winners of the day, though it won't be all plain sailing as we await the counting of special votes to know whether they'll need NZ First or not.

Either way, Nick and Kelvin run the rule over the consistent, or not-so-consistent policies between the three parties who may make-up our new Government. The bright-line test, interest deductibility and the foreign buyer tax are the key ones which come to mind.

There's plenty of data to cover off too, including the somewhat linked migration and rental index data, as well as the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series - what's the latest on first home buyer and investor activity?

REINZ also released their latest index and count of agent-involved sales figures, then there's a look ahead to the big one for this quarter - the all-important CPI release for Q3.

Throw in a quick review of the latest NZ Bankers Association (NZBA) report, and a proper re-cap of the figures in the Cordell Construction Cost Index and you've got a bumper 45 minute episode to tune into, to help with all your conversations ultimately designed to help people build better lives!

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The CoreLogic HPI in September showed values plateau nationwide but importantly the NZ market is not all one market, so focus remains on some of the regional differences beneath the surface.

The Reserve Bank took a less aggressive stance in the monetary policy review - not necessarily due to their decision to hold the OCR flat itself (for the fourth decision in a row), but more due to their expectation setting for the next decision, which now looks more likely to remain on hold. There are a few key releases to come before then though, which Kelvin details.

The other topic of interest was the construction sector, off the back of consenting figures last week, but also due to Nick delving a bit deeper into the sector.

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With plenty of economic data and some lending data to review, much of this week's conversation turns to what it could mean when it comes to the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Review, coming out on Wednesday.

A still-strong labour market, stronger-than-expected economic activity and improving confidence amongst both consumers and businesses has Nick and Kelvin considering the increased likelihood of one more OCR hike, and importantly the timing of it.

Kelvin delved into the RBNZ mortgage lending data in greater detail last week and also provides an excellent overview of ASB's recent analysis regarding the impact of migration on the economy and inflation.

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This week Nick and Kelvin dedicate a large portion of the pod to digest and discuss the latest GDP data release for Q2, even though it's admitadly old news now. But it will feature into the RBNZ discussions when it comes to consideration for their next monetary policy review (on Oct 4).

Elsewhere there's a few 'insights from the road' after both were travelling last week and Kelvin also discusses key take-outs from the release of the monthly chart pack (free to download now).

Lastly this week, a thanks to Dean for getting in touch, go the ABs, and check out the latest market update video.

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Plenty to get through this week, kicking off with the report which stemmed from some CoreLogic data, trying to replicate the foreign buyer tax estimates from the National Party's proposal. Michael Reddell's detailed blog, including a bit more detail on international experiences is here.

Mapping the market was also updated, providing further evidence of the recovery in values (at a suburb level) so take a look to see what's happening in your area.

Elsewhere first home buyers remain active, rental growth continues to increase and net migration is only going in one direction - up.

Lastly this week, a thanks to Jason for getting in touch and proposing a couple of useful considerations for anyone wanting to come home from across the ditch.

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In what was a quieter data week for the housing market Nick and Kelvin again cover off coverage of the tax policies announced by the National Party, following Kelvin's article assessing the potential impact of the changes.

From a data perspective, Kelvin reviews the latest mortgage term origination data from the RBNZ - with borrowers slowly swinging back to shorter terms. A quick look at listings volumes shows the spring increase has begun but it's off a low base and with sales also picking up, overall stock levels remain relatively weak.

Lastly this week, a look ahead sees a number of releases which will be of interest, including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, net migration data, rental prices and the REINZ monthly report for August.

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This week Nick and Kelvin quickly run through the latest CoreLogic House Price Index, which showed a modest fall at the national level, and patchy regional patterns - some areas up in August, some down. This patchiness may remain a feature in the coming months.

We then launch into a detailed discussion of how the housing market might look if National won the upcoming election - from a shorter Brightline period, to a softer foreign buyer ban, to interest deductibility, there's plenty to cover. Ultimately, house prices may receive a boost, but it might not be all that large - with mortgage rates still high.

Meanwhile, recent economic data, including filled jobs, the NZAC, and business/consumer confidence have all been encouraging.

And finally we finish with listener questions about DTIs - could National remove them from the Reserve Bank's toolkit? If imposed, would they actually do much?

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Today we sit down with the esteemed Steve McMenemy, director and mortgage advisor at Loan Market Auckland. As a veteran in the finance industry, Steve provides us with a deep-dive into the intricacies of the New Zealand property. We walk through the projected growth in the Massey area, and Steve unpacks the vulnerabilities and opportunities in the new build market. In light of the Unitary Plan, we also discuss its impact on the housing market and new build projects.

Shifting gears, we delve into the current housing market and the psychology of first-time buyers. Steve shares valuable insights into the factors stoking increased demand and gives practical advice to those grappling with affordability in this fast-paced market. In the wake of recent changes in property investor borrowing, we dissect the implications of removing the ability to offset mortgage interest costs as a tax deduction, as well as the loosening of LVR restrictions.

To wrap up our discussion, we turn our attention to the evolving trends in apartment living and reflect on the Reserve Bank's influence on the market. We also explore the role of debt-to-income ratio in bank policies and why more Kiwi are turning to brokers for their mortgage needs. Steve's unique insights and experiences provide a fascinating perspective on these topics, making this a must-listen episode for anyone interested in the New Zealand property market. So tune in and enjoy this comprehensive ride through the NZ property market!

Contact Steve at:
https://adviser.loanmarket.co.nz/steve-mcmenemy/
https://www.instagram.com/steve.mcmenemy/
loanmarket.co.nz/steve-mcmenemy
021 743 494

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Following the release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report, Nick and Kelvin discuss the state and future of housing affordability, tackling the house price to income ratio, and discussing why, despite improvements, buying a home remains an expensive endeavor. As we navigate this intricate terrain, we ponder whether the simultaneous growth in income and house prices cancels out each other's effects, leaving affordability static.

Then it's onto recent lending trends, as reported by the RBNZ, including the impact of changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions. There's a certain fascination as we dissect how first-home buyers are capitalising on low deposit loans and why investors with larger deposits are experiencing a surge in activity. Yet, we recognise the elephant in the room - the high-interest rates for larger loans and the limited individuals who can shoulder the extra debt for home ownership.

In the second half of our discussion, we delve into banking trends and loan repricing dynamics. The implications of cashbacks, equity calculators, and loan-to-value ratio restrictions come under the microscope. Together, we assess the potential impact of recent economic data releases on GDP and ponder the influence of the Chinese economy on the global market. This episode is the perfect blend of deep insights and lighthearted conversation - a must-listen for anyone interested in the nuances of the New Zealand property market.

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Number one on today's agenda is the Reserve Bank's monetary policy statement and the implications of the unchanged official cash rate. We break down the jargon and sift through layers of GDP, labour market, house prices, and inflation projections, leaving no stone unturned. We also reveal the potential for a rate rise and the nitty-gritty of the decision-making process. Moreover, we plunge headfirst into July's property market report, dissecting the role of first-home buyers, the 'wait and see' approach of investors, and the patchy nature of the market.

Particular focus is given into the impact of deductibility on property investment and housing affordability with Kelvin working through an in-depth example. Additionally, we cast a spotlight on regional variations in house prices and their influence on affordability.

Lastly we also preview the mortgage lending figures for July and the potential after-effects of the Reserve Bank's loosening of the LVRs on investors and first home buyers.

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Firstly, our apologies for the late upload of this week's episode, we had some technical difficulties with the file. But, onto the episode...

This week, Nick and Kelvin kick-off the pod with a look at CoreLogic's latest Pain & Gain report, including a bit of detail that is often missed in the usual media coverage.

Switching gears, we’ll discuss the latest Buyer Classification trends and the shifting dynamics between stronger and weaker buyer groups. Get ready to unravel the implications of these changes using the Reserve Bank's June new lending origination data. Plus, discover how a shift towards longer loan terms might offer a much-needed security blanket for borrowers.

We'll also shed light on the rising rental prices, driven by net migration and decreasing vacancy rates. And as a cherry on top, we'll wrap up with a closer look at the Reserve Bank's projections for the official cash rate (OCR). We’ll ponder the possible delay in the first OCR cut and the risks of non-tradable inflation.

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Ever wondered why both employment and unemployment rates can rise at the same time? Or how high wage growth impacts inflation and the Official Cash Rate (OCR)? Join us, along with our guest, Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson, as we decipher the latest labour market data. Prepare for an enlightening discussion on the OCR's future and the pressures that could sway its course.

Now, imagine if you could decode the perplexing world of the housing market. On this episode, we navigate through the House Price Index for July, provide insights into the current market situation, and foresee the potential of further market pain. From properties being resold at a loss to the increasing rental prices and lower vacancy rates, we ensure you're up-to-date with the latest trends. Buckle up as we journey through the intricacies of labour and housing market dynamics, equipping you with the knowledge that makes a difference.

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Ever wondered how the easing of LVR rules has affected the investor landscape? We dig into this, discussing how this change has tipped the scales, encouraging investors to lean towards new builds. The conversation gets even more interesting as we scrutinise the loss of interest-deductibility and its sway on investor involvement. Delving further, we'll face head-on, the challenges and opportunities of investing in a market with low rental yields and interest rates. We discuss the large gap between rental yields and mortgage rates and the potential long-term impacts they might have on the retirement scene.

Shifting gears, we'll delve deeper into the economic matters that impact the property market. We'll review the New Zealand Activity Index for June, and the forecasts from bank economists. With an unflinching look at the possibility of a looming double-dip recession, we'll discuss its potential implications on the official cash rate, housing market, and labour force. We promise insightful, nuanced, and engaging dialogue that will leave you more informed and equipped to make decisions in the property investment universe. So, join us for this enriching and enlightening conversation.

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Number one on the running order this week is the recently released 6% annual inflation rate. Engage with us as we dissect this figure, the important non-tradable inflation rate and its implications on the official cash rate.

Intrigued by the official cash rate and how it impacts your spending habits? Then this podcast is a must-listen. Brace yourself as we delve into a possible economic scenario where inflation remains high, pushing us towards a new recession. We'll be discussing the various factors that could influence this economic trajectory, such as the lagged effects of the current monetary policy and the number of folks who are yet to reprice their mortgages.

Our podcast episode doesn't stop at just inflation and cash rates. We transport you to the heart of the real estate market, analyzing current trends and highlighting the potential challenges and opportunities. We'll put under the microscope the low listing volumes, the increasing evidence of floor prices, and the rising investor selling in Australia. Come aboard as we discuss the current listings running at multi-year lows, the annual increase in sales, and what the future looks like for the New Zealand property market. All these and more, as we explore the intricate world of economics and real estate.

Free download of the latest CoreLogic monthly chart pack

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Ever wondered how the unchanging official cash rate might influence not only the economy but also your personal life? Kelvin Davidson and I, Nick Goodall, get to the heart of the matter in our latest episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast. We kick things off with a lively discussion about the recent Reserve Bank OCR decision holding the OCR at 5.5%, highlighting its 'wait and see' approach and the tell-tale signs of a relaxing labour market due to net migration easing skill shortages.

Excited to understand the potential risks of a slower rate of inflation? Well, strap in as we discuss how the constant OCR could impact inflation, financial markets, and your household expenses. We'll walk you through the ripple effect of the OCR rate stability on mortgage rates, using the jump from 2.8% to 5.1% as a case study for shaping the economic scene (David Cunningham on LinkedIn).

As we move towards the final part of our episode, we'll be shedding light on the potential upswing in the property market. The trends in rental prices, the cost of living crisis, and the influence of migration on the market are all on the table for discussion. We'll also be scrutinising the most recent sales volumes and house price index data from REINZ. Is there a potential for a 'dead cat bounce'?

Cordell Construction Cost Index for Q2
Monthly video up

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This weeks episode is brimming with insights, as we untangle complexities and delve into the data from CoreLogic's House Price Index. The property market is behaving in mysterious ways, with a downward trend across the nation, but certain regions like Auckland experiencing a sharper decline.

Ever wondered how the dynamics of the property market might impact first-time buyers, particularly in a time of flux? We'll walk you through the intricacies of identifying market troughs, and examine the factors leading to some homes performing better than others. With decreasing supply, increasing demand, and relaxing lending restrictions, we ponder the likelihood of the market hitting a stable floor soon. But make no mistake, the market is still a beast of unpredictability, facing affordability pressures and high mortgage rates.

We also touch upon the effects of the election on the market, the financial dynamics between renting and owning a home, and the role of the Bank of Mum and Dad and KiwiSaver in assisting first-time buyers. Lastly, we'll also be looking ahead, discussing key releases such as Cordell Construction Cost Index, Stats New Zealand's migration data and rental prices, and the Real Estate Institute's house price index. So, grab your headphones and get ready for an enlightening journey into the New Zealand property market!

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Does the state of New Zealand's property market keep you up at night? Well, it's time to sleep easy as we join Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson for a riveting discussion about the country's real estate landscape and economic outlook. We navigate the nuances of the New Zealand Activity Index for May, a vital indicator for GDP, and explore what it truly means for the second quarter. But don't break out the champagne just yet. Kelvin reminds us that the economic seascape can be precarious, and there's no assurance that we won't be navigating negative GDP figures in the following quarters.

In the second act of our dialogue, we roll up our sleeves and get down and dirty with the latest economic data, from the pulse of business confidence to the intricacies of filled jobs. We dissect easing cost pressures, reducing pricing intentions, and a timid resurgence in consumer confidence. Even though the economy appears steady, we highlight potential challenges looming on the horizon.

Lastly, we set our sights on lending trends around trade-up premiums. Armed with the latest lending data, we scrutinize the new loan-to-value ratio speed limit and the enduring high mortgage rates. As we wrap things up, we make sense of the housing market's challenges, the influence of an aging population, and the financial hurdles, especially when bridging finance is required. We invite you to plug in, listen up, and join us in this enlightening discussion about the economy's future. Let's make sense of the numbers together!

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This week we kick off by unravelling the latest data from CoreLogic's May 2021 chart pack. From the significance of the first annual increase in sales volumes to the importance of understanding the bigger picture behind the numbers, this episode is packed with valuable insights!

We also delve into the drivers of the New Zealand property market and examine the recent increase in sales volumes, all while acknowledging that this growth is still low compared to long-term averages. Kelvin helps us comprehend the context beyond just the numbers, including the strength of the economy, current listing levels, and demand for property. We also discuss why we shouldn't necessarily expect a strong upturn anytime soon and how the market's growth is expected to be low and slow.

Lastly, we shed light on the rental market in New Zealand, with a particular focus on the Otago region and Queenstown, where the flow of rental listings is running 15% below normal. Kelvin walks us through the supply and demand dynamics due to high net migration and the potential rent increases we could see as a result. Learn about the importance of keeping good tenants (and a good landlord!).

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Could the New Zealand property market be finally starting to turn a corner? Gain valuable insights on the latest trends and patterns as we discuss CoreLogic's mapping the Market release for June 2023, and explore how 10% of suburbs saw an increase in value while the majority still experienced a decline.

We also delve deep into the economic release of Q1, discussing why there is a delay in the GDP data (hence we closely track the New Zealand Activity Index), and how this affects the housing market. As we explore regional trends and performance, join us in analyzing the economic contraction and its impact on the property market, and what this could mean for buyers, sellers, and investors alike.

Lastly, we'll take a close look at the potential for a slow recovery and rental growth in the market, considering factors such as population growth, the tight supply of rental listings, and the ability of tenants to pay. Tune in as we navigate the complexities of the New Zealand property market and provide valuable insights to help you make informed decisions.

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Are you feeling the pinch of seasonal illnesses and the excitement of recent sporting events? We certainly are! But that won't stop us from giving you all the latest updates on the New Zealand property market. This week, we delve into trends across the market, from first home buyers making up around 25% of sales to the all-time low of mortgaged investors. We also notice some fascinating trends emerging in Auckland and other parts of the country.

The real estate market listings are painting an interesting picture as well, with reduced supply leading to a decrease in total stock on the market. We zoom in on the Auckland data, where total stock is 15% lower than it was this time last year. Is the end of the downturn near? We also examine the effects of credit restrictions and high rates on demand and their potential impact on price growth in the coming months.

Lastly, we turn our attention to the Reserve Bank numbers, exploring trends in new lending and mortgage rates. With 75% of new loans being taken out in the one to two-year fixed range, and mortgage rates stabilizing from last month, we discuss the significant changes since mid-2021 and the potential economic implications of these trends. So, come join us for an informative and engaging discussion of all things New Zealand property market in this episode!

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This week Nick welcomes back Kelvin from holiday with a host of data, covering the latest CoreLogic House Price Index results, renewed business confidence and strong jobs data, as well as a review of the latest dwelling consents and building work in place figures.

Plus, plenty of references to the state of the Australian market as home owning Kiwi look to the positive trend over there in anticipation of the same thing happening here.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick is joined by Brad Olsen, CEO and Principal Economist at Infometrics. Nick and Brad delve deep on the Reserve Bank's latest monetary policy statement and official cash rate decision, including all the juicy forecasts within. Brad also shares his insights on the impact of migration and Government spending on inflation and the state of the New Zealand property market.

Nick and Brad also discuss the potential impact of debt-to-income ratios on the housing market and the recent CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q1 resales. They remain cautiously optimistic about the market and encourage caution when taking short-term options such as mortgage holidays or interest-only terms. The episode ends with Brad sharing his upcoming travel plans and how they relate to the primary sector and the economy.

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Following Westpac's big call (at the time) and then the Government budget last week there's plenty to talk about as Nick and Kelvin essentially preview the RBNZ's next Monetary Policy Statement coming out this Wednesday at 2pm.

The RBNZ also released Q1 data for debt-to-income tracking. Meanwhile both the CoreLogic monthly chart pack for May and the first home buyer report for Q1 also went to market.

Check out the latest monthly video on Youtube.

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This week Nick and Kelvin use the latest CoreLogic First Home Buyer report and April's buyer classification data to focus on the key players in the market.

For those first home buyers (or anyone really) who are credit approved there's no doubt this is a great market for them, with a shift down for the prices they're paying but a shift up (to houses) in the types of property they're buying.

Meanwhile for other owner occupiers, they're either unable or unwilling to get out there in the current market, while mortgaged investors continue to do it tough. Rents are rising and inward migration is booming though, so perhaps there's more positivity on the horizon for them.

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The Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report again promoted the NZ Economy's resilience and with very early signs of the property market approaching a trough and the labour market remaining tight it's hard to argue against.

The detail on jobseeker numbers and the difference to unemployment figures is available here:

https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-resources/statistics/covid-19/jswr-unemployment-report.pdf

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson discuss the state of the New Zealand economy, including the NZ Activity Index, inflation, and job statistics. They also discuss recent changes to the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) rules and the upcoming financial stability report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The speakers touch on the possibility of tax reform, including a land value tax, but do not expect any major changes before the upcoming election.

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Inflation dropped in Q1, which is great news for everybody. The guys run through the latest data, the risk of any suprises in the coming quarters, and of course what it means for the official cash rate and mortgage rates.

They then quickly cover off the latest rent figures, before a discussion of the signs that this housing market downturn may be on its last legs (for better or worse, depending on your perspective). But there's also a long list of reasons why the end of the downturn won't suddenly give way to another upturn.

There's finally the usual run-through of upcoming data, including the NZAC, business and consumer confidence, filled jobs, and mortgage lending.

And they also manage to cover off a recent story about asking prices vs final selling prices: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131813174/property-owners-selling-for-395k-below-asking-price-on-average--corelogic

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With Nick away in Northland on a family holiday, Kelvin leads the discussion today, joined by Alan Gilbert, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Solutions.

The discussion runs through construction costs, the active buyer groups in the market at present, as well as migration trends, and upcoming rental figures.

The looming CPI release on Thursday 20th is also covered off, which is a really key release in terms of the next steps for the RBNZ’s OCR tightening cycle.

Alan then steps in to talk us through some recent work CoreLogic did around Auckland’s floods (x2) and mapping the effects from satellite imagery.

Check out the monthly video here

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After the RBNZ surprised everyone by lifting the OCR by 50 basis points, Nick and Kelvin dig into their statement and reasoning for the call. Given their consistency in messaging, are they actually quite a good 'referee'?

Plus, this week a detailed look into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for March.

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Amongst the usual review of weekly data and preview of the RBNZ OCR call this week, Nick and Kelvin also take a look at the RBNZ's latest paper on flooding exposure of the banking system. A couple of key insights extracted by Kelvin are:

Property prices could fall 80 – 100% in the most extreme cases in NZ in the event of a large coastal flood – due at least in part to insurance withdrawal.
25% of Auckland mortgages are vulnerable to a 1-in-100-year rain/surface flooding event.

Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast.

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Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson have called it, saying it’s “fairly likely” we’ve entered a recession.
Find out:

How they came to this conclusion.
What the Reserve Bank will likely say at next week’s OCR announcement.
Plus, the central bank has engineered a recession. When might they dial back their OCR hikes?

Tune into all that and more in this week’s NZ Property Podcast.

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Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland flooding are likely to be a major drag on the country’s economy and may have plunged NZ into a recession earlier than expected.

But is there a silver lining from this devastating event for our country’s shrinking economy?

In this week’s NZ Property Podcast, Kelvin Davidson and Nick Goodall make a case for the downturn coming to an end sooner than expected including:

An expected boost in spending from the cyclone rebuild
A sharp turnaround in migration figures
Plus, first home buyers are taking a smaller share of the market. Is it out of choice or necessity?

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With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.

Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for almost 1,000 suburbs across the country.

And keep a look out for the monthly video to be published later this week on the CoreLogic Youtube channel.

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In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.

Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinking as to why they may occur.

Download your free version here from Tuesday 7 March 2023 and keep an eye out for plenty of coverage across all media channels.

You can follow Eliza on LinkedIn.

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With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important.

This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.

Even the dwelling consents figures offer up a few words of warning, following some fresh listener insights.

This week keep an eye out for the Women & Property report, and associated podcast, out Tuesday. Plus, Kelvin's on the road with Trade Me for their State of the Nation roadshow and be sure to dial into the International Women's Day webinar and the Government Market Update if you're a Government employee.

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This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week.

Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.

But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that both the timing and broader role of monetary policy dictated they 'look through' the impacts of the event for now, leaving that to fiscal and private support in the first instance.

Outside of the MPS, the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report provides an excellent marker for future house price growth (or lack-of), while Kelvin remains very attentive to the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for economic performance and the latest lending stats provide yet more evidence (not that it's needed) of how slow the market really is.

Plenty to come this week too, including the CoreLogic House Price Index results for February, going public on Wednesday.

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Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.

There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full Monetary Policy Statement, which has Nick and Kelvin debating all the options, including holding the OCR at 4.25%.

It was also a very heavy data release week with historically low sales volumes recorded by REINZ, falls in values continuing into 2023, rents experiencing a (potentially deceiving) bounce, net migration growing further and borrowers still constrained at a debt-to-income (DTI) level.

The Pain & Gain report is now live, and keep a look out for the Housing Affordability Report, due for release by Wednesday.

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Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version

With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we may be waiting a while for any investor comeback.

With a lot of focus on the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle, there's further discussion on the broader impacts to the property market as well as reference to some of CoreLogic's Climate Risk Solutions, available to support clients and property owners. Be sure to get in touch if you'd like to know more.

Lastly, a look ahead paves the way for a busy week, with rental data, REINZ' HPI, RBNZ lending figures and migration stats all being released this week.

Plus, check back for the official release of the 2022 Q4 Pain & Gain report.

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Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).

As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer confidence remains very low (despite a jump in the past month).

There's also the impacts of the Auckland floods to weigh up, though as is discussed it's not exactly straight forward as there will likely be added inflationary pressure, but it's also important to make funds available to those who need it (without too high an interest rate).

Dwelling consent data was also released and for the first time in a long time the annual figure dropped below 50,000, though it's no reason to panic with the pipeline full. Once again, considerations will need to be made for the remedial work required in Auckland, which may see new consents nationwide drop at a faster pace than otherwise expected.

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With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.

We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what happens with the official labour market figures this Wednesday.

There have been some other concerning indicators lately too – a subdued NZAC for December, weak business confidence, and signs in the latest Centrix data that more households are beginning to struggle with the cost of living and higher mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, it’s CoreLogic House Price Index data this week, alongside mortgage lending, foreign buyers, unemployment, dwelling consents, and consumer confidence.

After all that, the discussion turns to bigger picture banking themes, where Tom highlights a couple of key issues – digitisation/lending speed and the role of brokers, both in NZ and across the ditch.

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What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.

In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.

Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown’s 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn’t a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.

Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.

Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week’s NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.

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Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.

After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one place.

The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index is also discussed, showing that the costs to build a new house rose at a record pace in 2022, but also that some respite could be on the way this year.

Good news for first home buyers too – their % share of property purchases is hovering at record highs, with reduced competition from other buyers, and of course lower house prices, all working in their favour. To be fair, the number of deals has fallen. But a high market share is still a good result.

The labour market also remains healthy, with filled jobs rising again in November. And this week we’re watching out for December’s REINZ figures (Wednesday), December’s Stats NZ rent data (Thursday), and November’s migration result (Friday).

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The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for December provides the perfect platform to close out 2022 as Nick and Kelvin discuss why the moderation in value falls is likely a false dawn.

Kelvin also wraps up a few other data releases you may have missed over the holidays weeks, most notably and concerning, the weak confidence results.

Plus beware of some of the headlines you may have read, there's a warning for reading too much into asking price or sales price measures and are Auckland buyers really that active outside of the Super City?

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For the final episode of the year, where else could we start than with the just-completed FIFA World Cup Final. An early start for Nick and some disappointment for the French friends he was watching it with! But what a game it was.

The guys then review recent data and preview what’s coming up for the final week of the year, including the ANZ business and consumer confidence surveys. The activity measures in these surveys could be pretty weak, but is there a chance that inflation expectations might soon be moderating?

The discussion then switches to an overall review of 2022 and a look ahead to 2023. The past 12 months have certainly been a timely reminder that house prices can go down (sharply) as well as up, and that mortgage rates play a key role. The next year will probably contain more housing weakness, but some positivity may start to emerge later in 2023.

Anybody wanting a more in-depth/alternative discussion of the 12 months ahead should check out Nick’s regular monthly video and the recording of a webinar the guys recently delivered to a Government audience.

All the best for 2023 to all of our listeners.

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With no official macro economic data releases in the last week Nick and Kelvin take a look around for any other info and engagements worth reviewing. Migration data was hot off the press but otherwise there’s media coverage regarding mortgagee sales, reduced sales turnover at the suburb level and Kelvins deeper look at recent investor activity.

Centrix also released their latest credit indicator report, illustrating a lift in loan arrears, while BusinessDesk analysed records around liquidations which show up the constructor sector's lingering vulnerability.

Keep a look out for a number of different releases from CoreLogic this week, including the Best of the Best report, the final monthly video of the year and the last Market Update webinar for Government employees (being tag teamed by both Nick and Kelvin).

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The discussion kicks off this week on the topic of house prices, with the CoreLogic Index last week showing further falls. Sure, the drop was smaller than in recent months. But be careful of reaching the conclusion that the downturn might also be over. It probably isn’t, and the ultimate peak for mortgage rates could hold the key as to when property values find a floor.

Indeed, the macro news last week also had a negative tone, such as filled jobs, dwelling consents, and business confidence. Weak hiring intentions could be a property market concern for next year, given the importance of the labour market to borrowers’ ability to keep servicing their debt.

In Kelvin's weekly article he delves into the situation with investors and those of different portfolio sizes.

The guys also discuss some listener feedback, especially the idea that casually switching to interest-only if a borrower gets into trouble isn’t as easy as it might seem.

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After the hotly anticipated Monetary Policy Statement was released last week Nick and Kelvin have a lot to discuss. From the OCR decision itself, to all the macro-economic forecasts and the language used in subsequent commentary - all with an eye to how the market is shaping up for 2023.

We also got October lending figures last week, Centrix's credit review, consumer confidence results and Xero's Small Business Index to digest.

Plus, the Government were busy too. Firstly they extended the dates for Healthy Homes Standards compliance, they also announced a 'Critical Materials Taskforce' to protect the construct industry and also launched their Change in Housing Affordability Indicators (CHAI) reporting/dashboard.

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While Nick and Kelvin keenly await the next RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, being released on Wednesday, they first take the time to look back a week full of releases.

CoreLogic's Pain & Gain report for Q3, showing the proportion of owners selling at a loss has increased, but is still no where near the levels of previous downturn.

REINZ latest release included what is likely a false dawn, as their HPI showed a minor increase in October, but sales volumes remain very weak.

The CoreLogic Buyer Classifcation data for October illustrated the continued struggles of mortgaged multiple property owners amidst first home buyers still out and about, with the RBNZ DTI data showing one reason why.

And Kelvin's round up of macro-economic data showed some encouraging signs in both the net migration figures and latest NZ Activity Index (measure of economic activity). Speaking of which, the Massey 'liveGDP' tracker is one to keep an eye on.

Plus, there's also a bit of chat about the recently announced changes to the RMA - likely to have an impact on the property market, but only in the long term.

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A number of releases/announcements from the RBNZ once again dominate the discussion. We've got the reappointment of Governor Orr to discuss, along with their first 5-year review of monetary policy, the proposed framework for the introduction of Dti limits (not until 2024) and a paper analysing the effects of the FLP on funding costs and mortgage rates.

Outside of RBNZ chat, Kelvin details the key insights from the release of our 6-monthly First Home Buyer Report, particularly that first home buyers are navigating the current market better than anyone else.

Stats NZ also released their Rental Index for October and Auckland City Council's code of compliance certificates illustrates the building slowdown which hasn't been as evident from consenting figures. Plus, the guys chat about Williams Corporations announcement that they've offered voluntary redundancies to a number of their staff across the globe.

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After a largely successful weekend of sports results, the dominant property issue for today’s episode is the Reserve Bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) – the chat may have a negative tone, but that’s the point. The FSR is all about looking at risk, and ‘plausible but severe’ scenarios which we might need to prepare for.

Nick and Kelvin cover off various aspects of the FSR, including the overall conclusion that our financial system is pretty resilient, and that most households should ‘get by’, provided that unemployment stays relatively low. More detailed points include some climate change modelling, negative equity, non-bank lending, and the prospects for LVRs vs DTIs.

Other data from last week included the continuation of low unemployment in Q3, and the resilience of new dwelling consents. Coming up, watch out for the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, Buyer Classification data, and the latest Stats NZ rental figures

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A number of data releases from a range of locations, but it still all boils down to businesses - are they investing and hiring - and consumers - are they still working, borrowing and spending?

The answers are slightly mixed, with businesses not confident but still doing fine and consumers much the same, though the latest RBNZ lending data further reiterates they're not borrowing near as much as they were or could be.

A number of links mentioned this week:
BusinessDesk coverage of ANZ Business Outlook survey
Xero data on small business health
BusinessDesk detail of ANZ customer reporting
CoreLogic under insurance survey
Affordability compared to 1990 article
Auckland being a million dollar city article

And lastly, thanks to Amelia for getting in touch.

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There are no surprises what forms the bulk of this week's podcast - inflation! With the latest CPI data out last week, and it coming as a shock to many, forecasts for the OCR, mortgage interest rates and house prices have been seriously revised. To kick things off Kelvin provides a 'review of the reviews', summarising the response to the inflation data and potential flow through to the housing market.

Amongst a wide-ranging, exploratory discussion Nick also references Cameron Bagrie's 'challenge to the status quo' article on BusinessDesk, imploring action to address the inflation issues from the bottom up and well as the top down, and to find ways to increase the productivity of our economy.

In other releases the comprehensive quarterly property market and economic report for Q3 was published last week with the key insulating factor of a strong labour market setting this downturn apart from the GFC, leading the commentary.

The Brave Marketer
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After a quick chat about the latest CoreLogic CCCI report on construction costs the focus quickly turns to the state of the market, following the latest REINZ monthly report detailing recent sales volumes and house value movements.

Neither measures provide much positivity for the future, as sales remain slow and values continue to fall, however in slightly better news the recent net migration figures provide a few shards of light at the end of the tunnel.

The rental index data from Stats NZ meanwhile looks a little off, but either way, reduced rental growth is adding the current challenges for property investors.

The regular quarterly report will be available to download later this week, but prior to that, all eyes will be on the CPI release from Stats NZ - set for Tuesday 10:45am.

The Brave Marketer
Many of the most memorable brand campaigns have been driven by cutting edge marketers
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The RBNZ increased the OCR by the expected 50 basis points last week but along with it opined the option of going even harder with a 75 basis point lift. What makes the call even more intriguing was that the Reserve Bank over the ditch (RBA) dialled back their tightening with only a 25 basis point increase.

Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential reasons for the different approaches, including consideration of the RBNZ making a mistake, though it seems it's a mistake they're willing to make considering the fallout may not be too dramatic (and potentially a better outcome than inflation continuing to run rampant).

Meanwhile our House Price Index for September showed values continue to fall, the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series shows first home buyers remain active but investors not-so and a closer look at values by property type, courtesy of Stuff.co.nz.

There's also a quick local election round up, with a view to what it could mean for the General Election next year and a special thanks to Pankaj for the feedback.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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Making up for a few quieter weeks of data releases, this week the show is jam packed of official data releases as well as a few other pieces of news which piqued Nick and Kelvin's interest.

Reserve Bank lending data for August leads the discussion, followed by filled jobs, confidence data and dwelling consent figures.

A look ahead to this week sees the CoreLogic HPI out on Wednesday morning, the OCR review happening that afternoon and the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for September will be available on Friday, setting up an interesting show for next week.

Elsewhere, there's been coverage of ghost houses on Stuff, whether it's better to rent or buy on The Spinoff and Nick ponders the announcement by The Opportunities Party (TOP) about their proposed tax changes, including a 0.75% land value tax.

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After yet another quiet week for data releases Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to better discuss the report released last month by the Housing Technical Working Group (MHUD, Treasury, RBNZ) assessing the NZ housing system.

Two recent podcasts at 'On the Tiles' and 'When the Facts Change' recently interviewed lead author Dominic Stephens (Chief Economist at Treasury) which lead to a number of great talking points to dissect.

The three key drivers of house price growth are pretty clear - land availability, interest rates and a favourable tax system, but how are those things changing and is the change going to be enough to disturb the long-run trend of affordability continuing to worsen?

A quick look ahead for the week rounds out the show this week, with a number of key data releases to look out for, from RBNZ, Stats NZ and ANZ.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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Making up for a quieter week prior, last week had a few of the more higher profile data releases. First up the GDP figures for Q2 were released by Stats NZ, with the main headlining being that we avoided a recession, but as Kelvin regularly points out does it really matter if confidence and sentiment is so low it felt like a recession anyway? And what now for inflation and the OCR?

REINZ also released their sales volumes and index for August, with continued weakness the main theme. Broad weakness also typified the latest release of the CoreLogic Mapping the Market data analysing the median value and 3 month change by suburb across the country.

Elsewhere we also got the latest migration figures from Stats NZ, as well as their rental index release showing further reduced demand and pressure on rental prices.

Next week's podcast will be recorded and released on Tuesday 27 September due to the public on holiday on Monday 26 September.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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It was a quieter week of data releases last week with just the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for August and Kelvin's article on the cost to trade up to discuss.

Stats NZ's release of migration data just prior to recording is also mentioned, however otherwise it's a look ahead to a busier week of data coming out, including REINZ HPI and sales volumes, the Stats NZ rental index and more importantly the official release of the Q2 GDP figures and the more timely NZAC for August.

The big question of course being did we dip into a technical recession or not, though as Kelvin regularly points out, does it matter, if it felt like a recession anyway?

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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The Corelogic House Price Index showed the downward trend in property values gather steam in August but after providing a bit more detail of the results, Nick also mentions the early signs of some light at the end of the tunnel.

The foundation of the NZ labour market appears to remain as solid as ever too, with Kelvin reporting filled jobs increased again in July and business confidence looks to be rising from the doldrums too.

Building consents have (finally) shown signs of tailing off, and while it's still minor, Kelvin thinks it's time to call the turning point, though with the pipeline full and the recent government announcement to support commitments in the sector, a GFC-type bust phase isn't expected.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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In another special addition podcast, Nick is joined by Mark Harris, Managing Director of Sotherby's International Realty NZ, to discuss all things Queenstown.

As can often be the case, the Queenstown property market is currently marching to it's own beat and with the borders now open, optimism for the area is high.

Mark started Sotherby's in NZ almost 20 years ago and has extensive experience in the mid-high range property market, both in Queenstown and around the country.

Listen in to hear about Mark's take on the current market, thoughts on the foreign buyer ban, connection to international markets and expectations for the future.

Catch all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Mortgage Connects, an MGIC Podcast
Insights and tips from top mortgage industry pros!
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This week Kelvin opens discussion with a summary of his trip to Rotorua to be on a panel at the Master Builders conference. Challenging but not dire would probably sum up the vibe and expectations of where things are headed.

At the same conference, Housing Minister Megan Woods announced the "Build Ready Development Pathway" designed to support the industry, in particular for stalled construction. This should provide confidence and certainty to the sector, which could otherwise be lacking.

Elsewhere we released some timely new climate risk analysis (in conjunction with global reinsurer Munich RE), illustrating the current and growing cost of river floods in NZ - something which needs to be acted upon sooner rather than later.

In what was a busy media week, Kelvin fronted the latest update to the 6-monthly housing affordability report, showing some measures have improved but others haven't.

All that, plus RBNZ mortgage data, consumer confidence survey results and underwhelming retail spend figures.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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No surprises for guessing what the topic of interest is this week - the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). Yes, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased by another 0.5% to now be 3%, but of more interest to our data loving friends are the forecasts within and what's actually said in the statement.

Nick and Kelvin provide their review of the statement and expectations for the short-term future of the market. The latest CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q2 2022 and recent stories about negative equity also feed into this discussion.

Then there's the BRANZ/MBIE report on the long term outlook for construction, the July NZ Activity Index (NZAC) and a new report from the Housing Technical Working Group acknowledging the big influences of property prices over the long term history to sink your teeth into.

This week look out for a release on the potential ongoing impact of regular floods in NZ and the Q2 Housing Affordability Report.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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This week, Nick and Kelvin lead the podcast with a discussion about whether first home buyers should wait to buy in a falling market. There are a number of factors to consider and not all of them financial - Kelvin teased all of the data out in his written article last week.

Sticking to the theme of first home buyers, there's also the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for July to review as well as REINZ' regular release, Stats NZ's rental index and migration data too.

Of course, it wouldn't really be a week in the property market without something to do with the lending environment so a review of the latest RBNZ debt-to-income (DTI) reporting flows into a preview of their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) to be released on Wednesday and includes their review of the Official Cash Rate (OCR).

And keep an eye out for a special edition podcast coming soon, looking at both the NZ and AU property markets - their similarities and differences.

The Pain & Gain report for Q2 will also be available for download from first thing Tuesday morning.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

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The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for July leads the discussion today and flows through to the consideration of negative equity for some recent buyers, particularly in the Wellington region.

The availability and cost of lending remains central factors to watch, so recent announcements of further changes to CCCFA, stronger mortgage rate competition and the opportunity of more high-LVR loans provide intrigue on where the market is heading.

A surprising (minor) lift in the unemployment rate caused a bit of overreaction in the market but shouldn't be fully dismissed and are we truly, finally seeing signs of a reduction in consents for new builds?

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First up this week is a correction from last week's show, where reference to the 'home ownership' portion of the Stats NZ CPI measure was incorrectly defined as including rents, rates and other costs. There's been confusion in the naming conventions and definitions but after contact from a keen listener, Kelvin provides an overview of the whole situation.

Elsewhere in the property data world, the guys talk RBNZ lending data and the prospect of lending regulations changing later this year, as well as economic data releases for filled jobs and both business and consumer confidence.

Of course, the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report is now live, the stuff article regarding climate change and it's (lack of) impact to property prices is here, and the article regarding the potential of negative equity is here.

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Last week, A stronger than expected CPI figure led to some economists changing their forecasts for the OCR, however Kelvin ponders whether it was necessary. He also delves into some of the detail behind the strong inflation result and of course considers whats next. Has inflation peaked?

A similar question is asked regarding constructions costs, off the back of the latest CoreLogic Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCCI). The state of the construction industry remains a hot topic, which last week included an increase in the KiwiBuild price to caps, intended to deliver more houses in the programme.

And in Kelvin's broader market overview he reviews the latest NZAC result for June and looks ahead to filled jobs data, confidence survey results and June lending figures.

On Wednesday look out for an update to the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report.

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The RBNZ's decision to lift the OCR by another 0.5%, to 2.5%, was entirely expected, however there's still a lot to discuss in terms of the implications and future of mortgage interest rates.

Meanwhile the REINZ data release for June prompted an in depth look into sales volumes, which really have fallen away dramatically. Plus, anyone looking for signs of the downturn moderating would have been bitterly disappointed to see the REINZ HPI showing no signs of it.

From an economic perspective, Kelvin wraps up the latest Stats NZ releases, covering both their rental index and net migration figures.

Keep an eye on the CoreLogic NZ Youtube channel for this months (numbers heavy) video, as well as the latest release of the Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCC!).

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Kelvin is out of isolation and there is plenty of data, particularly from CoreLogic, to chew over. Firstly the House Price Index data for June was released last week, further illustrating the embedded downturn we're in. Nick's release pondered where to from here, noting interest rates, including the official cash rate (OCR) which is being reviewed by the RBNZ this week, as a key determining factor.

The other data update was the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series for June, showing further (expected) falls in activity, but relative strength from both first home buyers and multiple property owners.

For the rest of the week Kelvin has his eyes on Stats NZ for both migration data and their rental index - both are likely to paint a tougher picture for landlords.

The full recording of the Climate Finance Panel from last week is available now, and for a great written overview Newsroom were in attendance too.

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Plenty of data and other releases to cover this week, starting with RBNZ lending data for May. Most interestingly there was a lift in low deposit lending, but Kelvin also picks up on the reduction of interest-only lending as worthy of attention. Full article available too.

The RBNZ's Chief Economist Paul Conway also delivered a speech last week, which Nick and Kelvin briefly discuss, however it has served as more of a reaffirmation of the broader state of the market than anything particularly new.

A Covid-battling Kelvin then runs through all the economic data releases from the week - Filled jobs (look good), building consents (holding up, but we're weary of them) and business and consumer confidence (pretty bad).

Nick then references the latest from Trade Me's release of their rental data showing the first signs of potential weakness in that market - not good news for landlords.

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Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Infometrics' release of their new report "Housing update: A new lens on affordability" dominates the discussion this week, as it brings to the fore the consideration of assessing all payments over the lifetime of a mortgage rather than simply the price paid when bought.

The key headline was that it's now the worst time to be a first home buyer in NZ since 1957, and based on the quality of the report it's hard to argue the point. Nick and Kelvin do however, dig into a little bit of the detail of why that is the case and whether it'll once and for all put the generational argument of who had it tougher, to bed!

Kelvin also provides an overview of the latest release of the Mapping the Market interactive suburb report and covers off the latest NZAC data (and why doesn't it get the coverage it deserves!?).

Lastly this week, here are the links as mentioned:

BusinessDesk article on the impact of the City Rail Link stations on property values.
Real Estate Breakfast
- Wellington
- Auckland
Kelvin's oneroof article

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

A number of relevant economic and property market releases lead to a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the NZ economy and the future of the property market (without interest rates dominating!).

GDP figures for Q1 showed a contracting economy, to most people's surprise, while the REINZ sales volumes and HPI reaffirmed the market weakness - with the nationwide index now 6% below the peak in November 2021.

Meanwhile the rental index figure illustrates slowing growth for rents but still well above the long term average, but can it continue? Along with considering that question Kelvin and Nick also analyse the latest migration stats - what they're showing, but does it matter?

Kelvin's article analysing the May Buyer Classification data is up on the website, while the monthly video is also live.

Don't forget to register for the Climate Change Panel, hosted by Bernard Hickey (and listen to last week's podcast) and if you work for the Government, register for this week's online market update presentation too.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this special edition guest podcast, Nick interviews Ivan Diaz-Rainey, from the Univerity of Otago.

Ivan also holds a number of roles but the two of most interest for today are Director of the Climate & Energy Finance Group and Project Lead for the STRAND Marsden Fund Project.

The discussion essentially forms a preview of the upcoming online panel event, which Ivan is a member of "Addressing climate change, financial stability & property", to be hosted by Bernard Hickey on the 7th of July at 12:30pm. The event is open to anyone with an interest - register here.

Nick and Ivan discuss a number of things to do with the climate and it's increasing inluence on our financial system all around the world. What is Climate Finance? How does NZ compare to the rest of the world when it comes to regulation and policy development? And how are both mitigating and adapting to the real impacts of climate change? And what is transition risk?

All this is covered in the podcast as well as a bit of detail on the STRAND Marsden Project (proudly supported by CoreLogic) which as well as evaluating different models for understanding the potential impacts of flooding, looked into the South Dunedin floods of 2015 and the influence they had on property prices both short and long term.

Overall, NZ is making good progress in the Climate Finance space but there's also plenty left to do. Listen in to the podcast to hear more and make sure you register for the panel event on 7 July.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In amongst some wild weather over the weekend, credit conditions and interest rates are back as a key discussion point again this week, given the soon-to-begin relaxation of the CCCFA rules, but on the other hand the start of Quantitative Tightening from the Reserve Bank. Even though the RBNZ envisages QT being a smooth/managed process, Nick and Kelvin discuss how there’s surely some kind of risk that it adds to upwards pressure on mortgage rates.

Buyer Classification for May is also covered off, and the theme of ‘debt vs equity’ is still evident, with cash multiple property owners having a higher market share in recent months – albeit due to their number of purchases falling less than other groups, rather than an outright increase in activity.

As per usual the guys look ahead to upcoming data this week – including the Q1 GDP data – but also take on a broader discussion of the investment landscape at present (Kelvin's write up). With capital gains fading, yields low, and mortgage rates higher, it’s possible that would-be new investors are looking very hard at their sums. Of course, for existing investors with much higher effective yields, the game is a bit different – and some (all?) will want to avoid Brightline too!

Kelvin's 5 things to know article is live, as is his analysis of the history of the top end of the market.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In what was a relatively quieter week for property market data, Nick and Kelvin spend a bit of time discussing the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data and some of the resulting media coverage.

It also gave Kelvin an opportunity to check out the new experimental series from Stats NZ regarding Code of Compliance Certificates (CCC) being issued around the country. This, on top of the latest building consent figures and ANZ consumer confidence release leads the way to further consideration of the vulnerable development and construction industry - we think further tough times lay ahead.

In this week's oneroof article Kelvin floated the idea of the market following the shape of a bathtub - so that's a new one for your property market lexicon.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

No surprises what dominates the conversation this week - the OCR. And not the rate itself but the forecast track from the RBNZ.

How high, how soon, how much did it change compared to the last MPS and what does it likely mean for the property market, all covered off in the show this week.

It's a chunky chat, with references to reports from the NZ Bankers Association and Centrix and then a wrap up of other data releases from the last week, including April lending data, consumer confidence and filled jobs data.

Nick also shares a couple of points from the CoreLogic AU research team's write-up following the Australian Election result as well as consideration of some analysis regarding shrinking household sizes as a result of lockdown fatigue.

Kelvin's oneroof article is live and keep a look out for the latest CoreLogic HPI results for May, out on Wednesday.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In an absolute bumper episode Nick and Kelvin first cover off the just released CoreLogic Pain & Gain report, providing further proof of the changing market but also a reminder of where we're at in the broader historical context of the market.

Then the Government Budget announced last week did actually have something in it for first home buyers, but otherwise was of interest due to potential flow through to greater inflation.

After briefly covering the latest DTI data from RBNZ and the NZ Activity Index showing a slowing economy, Nick then praises the work of regular listener Adam who got in touch recently regarding his early read of the weak Auckland market. Plenty of lessons from Adam's experience and advice - thanks again for getting in touch!

Kelvin's "Did you know" article covers off some less understood or reported facts and this week we'll be keenly awaiting the MPS from the RBNZ, including their review of the OCR - 100% guaranteed to lift by 0.5% ;)

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

The latest 6-monthly CoreLogic first home buyers report clearly illustrated the recent struggles for first home buyers as credit availability and affordability pressures impacted their activity. Of course the report goes into greater detail, as do Nick and Kelvin in their resulting discussion.

REINZ figures for April are also a hot topic, particularly due to the stark index result that Wellington City is now -14.2% down from its October peak.

Kelvin also provides his take on the latest Westpac Economics team release on construction and the housing shortage, while net migration figures for April provide an opening to a broader economic discussion and April rental data has Nick reiterating comments made about landlord pressures for a oneroof article.

This week, keep a look out for RBNZ's latest debt-to-income reporting and insights from their new survey, while Kelvin's written a 'did you know?' post, busting a few myths that are currently circulating and as he says in his regular '5 things to know' the 2022 Government Budget is likely to be relatively uneventful for housing.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Last week's release of the April CoreLogic House Price Index provided the strongest evidence yet, if it was needed, that the market has swung to the negative with some areas seeing the largest drops in value since the Global Financial Crisis.

This, and the release of the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report, leads to discussion on the vulnerabilities of the market, including our labour market, but expectations remain for a controlled downturn.

But as Kelvin points out in his weekly oneroof article, the mood of the market, which is an important factor on future trajectory, can be difficult to quantify or measure.

The latest building consent figures rounds up the week that was, before a look ahead to the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, March net migration numbers, rental figures for April and the REINZ release for April (remember to ignore change in median sales price statistics!)

Nick's interview on the impact of the latest sea level rise research is up on Newshub.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Once again the Reserve Bank has kept us on our toes with a number of releases in the last week. On top of lending data for March showing a continued contraction of high LVR lending (but a bounce in total lending from Feb) we also got the much awaited response to the debt-to-income (DTI) consultation feedback.

The RBNZ summary essentially kicked any introduction of DTI restrictions (and debt serviceability rate floor) down the road but still provided useful insight into their read on the market.

Meanwhile there was some interesting research published about the "Bank of Mum & Dad" and we're looking ahead to the RBNZ's release of the Financial Stability Report, out on Wednesday.

Elsewhere there's filled jobs data to review in anticipation of official labour market stats for Q1 out this week, and confidence data remains weak, with cost pressures and expectations a key concern.

Lastly a quick chat about the latest Government investment into building and development in Auckland pretty much rounds out every topic when it comes to the property market!

And of course mention of Kelvin's regular oneroof article, and the upcoming CoreLogic HPI for April.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

There's a lot to cover in Nick's first day back from holiday, with inflation data the key topic. Firstly the CPI results for Q1 released by Stats NZ, but also the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) measuring the cost of building a new house.

A couple of articles piqued the guys' interest in the last week too. Stuff's reporting of Centrix data looking into the tenure of loans was a fresh piece of info, while interest.co.nz provided great insight into serviceability interest rates.

And there was also further planning changes, notably for Auckland released last week which will no doubt cause plenty of debate in the market about appropriate intensification of housing stock.

Other macroeconomic data released last week includes the NZ Activity index measuring the health of the economy, while this week there's plenty to look out for regarding jobs, confidence and mortgage lending figures.

Keep a look out for the comprehensive review of the property market and economic data for Q1, out this week, while the monthly video is already live and Kelvin's regular oneroof article is where it always is :)

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Fresh after Easter – including Nick’s time away celebrating his birthday and a family holiday in the Sounds – the key topic for discussion this week is obviously the Reserve Bank’s decision to raise the official cash rate by 0.5% rather than the standard 0.25%. It’ll keep the upwards pressure on mortgage rates, but future rises may be smaller than we’ve seen recently.

Related to that strand of discussion, this week’s episode also covers off a Herald story which covered an OIA request around the possible level of ‘serviceability stress’ that might be faced by recent first home buyers as mortgage rates rise. It’s possible that about 49% of people who purchased for the first time in the past year could be under strain if typical mortgage rates reach 6%, but the lads also question if the assertion that it could be ‘tens of thousands’ in trouble is quite accurate.

In a busy data week, this episode also cover off recent figures on rents (surprisingly strong), migration (still weak), and of course the latest REINZ data – which showed further declines for sales volumes and their house price index.

This coming week the headlines will be hogged by Thursday’s (21st) CPI release – which will be discussed on the pod next week. Inflation is expected to be a bit of a shocker at >7%, but few will be surprised.

And as per usual, our weekly top 5 article is now up on the Oneroof site.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Nick is back on deck after household COVID isolation and there's lots of data and other information to review.

A look back at the CoreLogic House Price Index release for March brings up a conversation around how the market performed in the last major downturn, following the Global Financial Crisis, as well as the statement that we may well reflect on Q1 this year as the tightest credit will get (for this cycle).

There's also CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for March, which shows a further drop in first home buyer activity (which Kelvin spoke about on the AM Early Show) and a quick overview of the confirmed changes to CCCFA, as announced by MBIE last week.

But the meaty part of the pod is dedicated to a discussion on the recently released report "The decline of housing supply in New Zealand: Why it happened and how to reverse it" from the Infrastructure commission.

Releases to look out for this week include the RBNZ reviewing the Official Cash Rate, rental data for March, and migration figures for February. Plus, Kelvin's "5 things to know" is live on oneroof.

Lastly, thanks to Thomas Gilbert for his question on the sizes of homes being consented for at the moment.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Nick starts this week by removing the elephant in the room – he has COVID! Tough weekend, but just maybe there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

The guys then launch into a discussion of February’s filled jobs numbers from Stats NZ, which showed the first monthly fall (-0.3%) since January last year. This could be ominous for the unemployment rate and hence the property market, especially since the latest business and consumer confidence surveys from ANZ have remained so weak.

The counter-point to this however is some better data from Xero, suggesting that small businesses are perhaps not feeling quite as pessimistic.

Other key data discussed includes the latest dwelling consent figures (spoiler alert: very strong again), and a look ahead to the CoreLogic House Price Index for March, and the Buyer Classification figures at the end of the week.

With a short appearance on Have You Been Paying Attention, we’ve also broken into the mainstream!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

As the market moves through a distinctly different phase than the last couple of years, it's ever more important to ensure we're using the right data and statistics to evaluate what's going on.

In the last week there have been a couple of examples of why that is. The first was a stuff article headlining the drop in median sales price in Auckland of 19%.

The second was the mortgage lending data for February, from the RBNZ. As with anything, the insights derived from the data are dependent on interpretation or perspective.

So in a statistic heavy, rant filled podcast Nick and Kelvin speak about the pitfalls of and frustrations from the way some data is released and reported on.

The recently released interactive mapping the market site provides a great example of how to report on property value change in a much more consistent and robust way.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this special guest episode Nick chats to the team of agents who make up the Sold on Kāpiti team, Karl Matakatea, Sanele Chadwick and Chris Judd.

Aside from this turning into an impromptu infomercial for moving to the Kāpiti Coast (!!) the guys cover off a wide range of topics, including the state of the market, with a particular focus on the Coast but also touching on a number of factors that are relevant across the country.

The Sold on Kāpiti team also talk about their short but successful history, including the big move to going independent late last year, after working under the Tall Poppy brand since their inception.

Of course there's mention of the big upcoming date - 28 March 2022 when Transmission Gulley will (finally) officially open, and all the opportunity that may bring.

On top of a deeper analysis of the current market, including who the active buyers are and which 'tier' of properties are faring the best, Karl, Chris and Sa also speak more specifically on some of the biggest challenges facing agents today and some of the things which have helped make and keep them successful, in this changing market.

Check out the guys at https://www.soldonkapiti.co.nz/ and make sure you give them a follow on instagram and facebook too.

Catch all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With REINZ data for February confirming the market slowdown, many questions are turning to the risk of a greater downturn and what's next for the market. Regional variances, in sales volumes and price movement, are important market indicators to pay attention to.

Momentum is also waning in the broader economy - Kelvin gives his take on the latest GDP and more timely NZAC data.

There was also some interesting analysis put out by the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding the risk of first home buyers and other owner occupiers which has plenty of relevance here in NZ and leads a broader discussion on the risk of a more serious down-turn occurring here.

The latest video is now live, Kelvin's regular 5 things you need to know is up on oneroof, as is his larger analytic piece on the lending environment, and AM Early have uploaded his full interview from Monday morning too.

And the interactive mapping the market site is updated with the change in values by suburb over the last 3 months - available to you before the media have even covered it!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Some hugely relevant data to cover off this week, and very timely, after the Government last week announced a few tweaks to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act. This followed a mini-review of the recent changes implemented on December 1, which appear to have impacted 'good' borrowers than intended or necessary.

We've got just-updated CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for February, illustrating the greater impact on first home buyers as well as the February REINZ HPI data showing the broader impact on property values.

Stats NZ rental data remains of interest, especially with the annual growth rate now slowing after peaking at almost 6% last year and Kelvin's economic data update covers off what to look expect this week when it comes to GDP data for Q4 and NZAC data for February.

Don't forget to read and share Kelvin's 5 things you need to know and look out for an update to our monthly video later this week.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this special edition podcast, to recognise and celebrate International Women's Day 2022 (IWD), Nick and Kelvin are joined by Kristen Lunmen, founder of Hatch.

The theme of this years IWD is #breakthebias and throughout the podcast Kristen provides great insight into how she's done exactly that, as well as tips for how Women can do the same, in both their career and ambitions for financial freedom.

The second annual CoreLogic Women and Property report, written by Head of Research for CoreLogic AU, Eliza Owen also coincides with IWD and Kelvin delves into the relevant insights for women here in NZ.

This instigates some great discussions throughout, covering off the different attitudes, biases and inequality which exist between genders, when it comes to all investments, not just property.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

It’s another busy week in the property market, with a huge range of data and topics to cover. But first the guys had to cover off the sickness and accidents that hit the Goodall household over the weekend.

In the property market itself, one key point of discussion from last week was February’s CoreLogic House Price Index, which confirmed the slowing trend for values – reflecting fundamental drivers such as higher mortgage rates and reduced credit availability, but also possibly a change in mindset, as the pricing power shifts towards buyers.

In turn, part of that reflects the changing listings situation, which the guys also run through. With more choice on the market, buyers are probably getting some sneaky offers accepted, with that pattern coming through a bit sooner than we were anticipating.

Meanwhile, the economic news has been a little mixed – with filled jobs still rising in January, but dwelling consents dipping, and business and consumer confidence now looking very weak. There’ll be some headaches at the Reserve Bank, as they try to balance the need to control inflation (with a higher official cash rate) while at the same time not damaging the economy. This ‘stagflation’ risk – i.e. a stagnant economy but high inflation – is one to keep an eye on.

There’s also a look ahead to upcoming data, and a heads-up about CoreLogic’s new Women & Property Report, which is timed for International Women’s Day (8th March) and takes a detailed look at female ownership in the NZ property market, as well as a look at Australia.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Covid may have hit the CoreLogic Research Team this week, as Kelvin and his whanau have woken up a tad worse for wear today. Unsurprisingly Kelvin still manages to get through the pod with his usual array of commentary and insights on the topical factors impacting the property market.

Of course the key point of discussion is the latest RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and Official Cash Rate (OCR) review which resulted in a 0.25% increase to 1%. And as per usual, it's not always about what the RBNZ does, but also what they say and there's plenty to chew over when considering "where to next?".

The RBNZ's latest lending figures for January also provide food for thought and before the guys move on from the Bank and their influence, there's a final reminder of the now-closed consolation period regarding the potential introduction of debt-to-income restrictions.

A brief acknowledgment of the awful events unfolding in Ukraine and the global and local economic impacts is also discussed, before a quick recap of the recently released Pain & Gain report and a look ahead to what's coming up this week.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Straight into it this week with the REINZ HPI leading the way after reporting another drop in values in January (following the same in December).

This triggers a more critical look at the market factors at play - with a particular focus on the potential for greater weakness in the market, sooner than we'd previously been expecting.

A very interesting article from Economist Cameron Bagrie on Business Desk then prompts consideration of a more vulnerable economy and labour market than has widely been considered. Perhaps the key question being how will the Government support businesses coping with reduced consumer mobility and activity through the red traffic light settings (as well as those in Wellington affected by the protests).

There's also debt-to-income data from the Reserve Bank to digest and a look ahead to their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) this Wednesday which will almost certainly include a lift in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 1.00%.

Links to check out this week:

Monthly video summary
Affordability Report
Oneroof 5 things you need to know
Pain & Gain report for Q4 on Friday

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

First up this week is a recap of the Cordell Construction Costs Index (CCCI) for Q4 which was released last week and got a LOT of press.

Then we review the January CoreLogic Buyer Classification data showing the first real signs of tightening credit (LVRs and CCCFA) hitting first home buyer activity.

Plenty to look out for this week too, including the CoreLogic Affordability report, Stats NZ's Rental Index for January and the REINZ data release. And as always this week's '5 things you need to know' is up on oneroof.co.nz.

Lastly, a big thanks to Anna for getting in touch about her recent experiences in the Point Chevalier property market - plenty of broader trends to look out for as we transition away from the latest boom phase.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After recapping the results from the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) release for January Nick and Kelvin get into a meatier discussion on the state of the labour market, with the unemployment rate falling to another record low 3.2%.

Given so many headwinds facing the market, not least the tightening of credit, in part due to the recent CCCFA (Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act) changes, a lot of focus is on the future of the employment market and economy in general.

This leads Nick to mention a recent interview from the NZ Everyday Investor podcast, hosted by Darcy Ungaro, featuring John Bolton from Squirrel Finance, which provided a lot of great detail on some of the impacts of the changes, including restriction of credit to the important small and medium enterprise business sector. Well worth a listen.

This week's '5 things you need to know' is also available on oneroof.co.nz and look out for the latest CCCI report, tracking the change in construction costs at the end of 2021.

Note, next week the podcast will be returning to the usual Monday afternoon release schedule.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

December's lending data from RBNZ showed a drop in the total value but perhaps not as much as might have been expected given some of the coverage of tightening credit over the last few months. Kelvin gets into some of the detail to help make sense of the real impact of recent changes.

There's also plenty of economic data, most of it strong, to review, starting with the 3-decade high inflation figure of 5.9%. Filled jobs also continued to increase - encouraging data in the lead up to Wednesday's Q4 labour market figures, so the only detractor from all this positivity is consumer confidence levels continuing to fall.

The CoreLogic HPI is also out on Wednesday with the general theme being a bit of a mixed bag around the country. Finally this week, a thanks to Richard for providing clarification on the anomaly of rental change data discussed last week.

This week's '5 things you need to know' is also available on oneroof.co.nz and don't forget to check out the recently published Q4 Property Market and Economic report - the most comprehensive overview of the state of the NZ property market.

Note, next week the podcast will again be out on Tuesday (due to Waitangi weekend) before returning to the usual Monday afternoon release schedule from Feb 14.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

The shift to red in the Covid traffic light system brings with it a quick chat about the potential impact to the property market before a look back at the latest data.

Stats NZ's rental index is the first release of interest before a detailed look into the latest REINZ house price index which provided even more evidence of market weakness creeping in.

Nick and Kelvin then consider what to look for in regards to the border opening and the flow on to inbound and outward migration.

Then, a look ahead includes keeping an eye out for the latest CPI (inflation data) and the probable flow through to an OCR increase, consumer confidence, the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) and filled jobs data for December.

This week's '5 things you need to know' is also available on oneroof.co.nz and the Q4 Property Market and Economic report will be free to download from Wednesday morning.

Note, for the next two weeks the podcast will be out on Tuesdays (navigating holidays and leave) before returning to the usual Monday afternoon release date from Feb 14.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Ngā mihi o te tau hou pakeha (Happy New Year) and welcome to the first podcast for 2022. Nick and Kelvin are back from their respective summer breaks and there's no time to waste, with the lending environment under particular scrutiny.

Changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA) are hogging the headlines, but tightening of the LVR limits, bank introduction of debt-to-income limits and increasing interest rates will also be having an impact so Nick and Kelvin provide their take, off the back of all the latest lending and Buyer Classification data.

REINZ' release for December data was also hot off the press prior to recording so the guys give their quick take on that prior to Kelvin wrapping the latest economic releases (building consents and filled jobs).

The major thing to watch for this week is the Stats NZ rental index but everyone seems to have hit the ground running so there are plenty of other releases to be aware of.

As mentioned here's Kelvin's now regular '5 things to know' about property this week.

Note, for the next three weeks the podcast will be out on Tuesdays (navigating holidays and leave) before returning to the usual Monday afternoon release date from Feb 14.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In the last podcast for the year, Nick and Kelvin round out all the latest data releases, including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for November and Stats NZ's rental index, which provide the discussion points for first home buyer and property investor activity.

Kelvin also gives his take on the big economic data which was out last week, in particular the expectedly weak GDP figures for Q3, which are then tempered by the more recent NZ Activity Index data for October and November.

Then it's just a final wrap for the year, including mention of the recent webinar "2022 housing market: slowdown or slump?" and regular monthly video.

Have a safe and happy holidays, we'll be back on 17 Jan 2022!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With no major data releases in the last week, Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to do a mini-review of 2021 and look ahead to 2022. This is timed nicely with a few other CoreLogic pieces doing the same.

The Best of the Best report will be public on Tuesday 14 Dec and covers a look back at how the country performed in the last 12 months at a suburb level, using a range of different measures, including median value change, median days on market and median yield.

Then on Tuesday 14 December Nick and Kelvin are hosting a live webinar, where they'll run through in greater detail the key housing market factors of 2021 consider what's in store for next year. The webinar is free to attend, with anyone able to register here.

Listings has been a key recent topic and was the focus of Kelvin's article last week. And his historical recount of the last decade which featured in the OneRoof Property report is well worth a look too.

There's plenty to look forward to in the unofficial final week of the year too. We'll be back next Monday to round it all up before a three week break over the summer holidays.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After a quick acknowledgement of Kelvin's Birthday and the incredible achievement of Ajaz Patel for the BlackCaps Nick and Kelvin chat about the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) release which, other than the usual focus on change in property values, looking deeper into the listings situation across the country.

Then, a review of the latest filled jobs data (positive) and ANZ Business Confidence results (less-positive) leads to a broader discussion on the state of the economy heading into 2022, including how businesses might fare as all the Government support ends.

Continued strength in dwelling consent figures brings the construction industry into scope once again, with yet another reminder about capacity constraints and net competitions being of particular interest.

To round things out this Stuff article and the CoreLogic data used for it brings change in land prices to the fore, and with it the insight that unitary plans have probably had in slowing land price growth.

And if you want to read the interview with Nick for Newshub's "Me and My Monday" series, go here.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Yet again the Reserve Bank is front and centre with a number of releases to chew over. In the last week they released their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which always includes an Official Cash Rate (OCR) review as well as the October lending breakdown and they officially commenced consultation on the potential introduction of debt-to-income (DTI) caps.

The OCR was increased by 0.25% - probably the cautious option, but as Kelvin discusses it's all about the forecasts and what happens next.

From a DTI perspective, the key is probably the Reserve Bank's relaxed nature around there being no rush to implement anything. Nonetheless Kelvin has pored over the document to give his take on other points of interest.

To close out the RBNZ section this week, a review of October lending data further solidifies the likelihood of a last hurrah for first home buyers, before high LVR limits were officially tightened on 1 November.

Other brief topics of interest are consumer confidence results (weakening) and upcoming CoreLogic house price index results, business confidence, filled jobs and building consents data (which Nick takes the opportunity from, to remind listeners that not all consents go through to completion).

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After running through the two big CoreLogic releases from last week (CCCI report and Pain & Gain report), Nick and Kelvin delve into the newly released debt-to-income (DTI) data from RBNZ.

The data helps shape the discussion around the potential impact of the as-yet-unconfirmed caps that may apply, and plenty of investors will be affected.

There's also insight direct from the market (thanks Alex Toohey from Vega) that some banks are already applying their own version of the DTI limits so the expected slowdown may be more pronounced and happen sooner than otherwise expected.

And perhaps it's the mood being affected by the underwhelming All Blacks' performances but news of tightened loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions impacting pre-approvals leads to a slightly more pessimistic outlook than previous.

Finally, a look ahead to the Banks' OCR review this week and discussion around the health of the economy and business sector provides a pretty comprehensive overview of where things are at.

And don't forget to go check out this month's 5 minute video summary on youtube.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Off the back of the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin discuss the factors leading to their record share and then consider how things might play out in coming quarters, given tightening credit conditions.

Rising rents are inherently intertwined in the state of the first home buyer market, so we've been paying close attention to the Rental Index from Stats NZ. October figures weren't as strong as September but the annual rate of growth is still very topical.

REINZ October release also provided interesting results - with further evidence of a potential turning point, below the headline strength.

Kelvin then kicks off a discussion on the health of businesses, analysing the ANZ Business Confidence data, as the economy very tentatively starts to open up a bit more.

Rounding out the pod, Kelvin plugs the (now-released) CCCI Report (formerly CHIP) providing yet more evidence of further growth in construction costs, and RBNZ lending data on DTIs out later today (Monday).

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Nick and Kelvin firstly review the Corelogic House Price Index data for October before getting into the detail of the few RBNZ releases last week.

Firstly the Governor gave a speech to the Property Council, which was released to the market, alongside a paper investigating the measures of house price sustainability.

There's plenty to digest, especially when you add in the RBNZ Financial Stability Report, which was released the following day. Nick and Kelvin consider the RBNZ's take on everything from the RB's role in the recent growth phase, the plan to introduce debt-to-income limits and the robustness of the banking and business sectors in the face of increasing discussions about vulnerabilities in our economy and property market.

There was also strong labour market data and building consents data released last week, and Nick gives an update on where agent appraisals are at, following the Labour Weekend holiday.

And look out for the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, out first thing Tuesday.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With plenty of change occurring and more coming in the lending space, Nick and Kelvin spend a bit of time talking about the Reserve Bank, regulation and BNZ's announcement to immediately apply debt-to-income restrictions themselves.

Kelvin then provides his usual round-up of macroeconomic releases, including confidence survey results, labour market data and upcoming building consent figures.

Lastly this week, a quick look over the ditch provides a sense of déjà vu for the lads as inflation and the OCR come squarely to the forefront for the RBA.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In episode 100, Nick and Kelvin briefly chat about the origin and story of the podcast before getting back to normal programming and a review of the week that was.

Inflation data for Q3 was out last week, and with the annual increase hitting 4.9% yet again the implications to the OCR and mortgage interest rates are top of mind. Kelvin provides the detail, tying in the last NZ Activity Index (NZAC) measuring economic activity and the upcoming business confidence survey results.

A joint housing announcement, between National and Labour showed encouraging signs for the future of intensification, however once again the impact is likely to be small and gradual - Nick and Kelvin discuss why.

And lastly this week, Nick reviews the latest agent appraisal figures which have been drifting lower - not a good sign for upcoming listings.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Last Tuesday we officially launched the Property Vulnerability Index and accompanying report. Nick and Kelvin provide an overview of the analysis, how it can be used and some high level results, but all the content is open and free to check out at your own leisure. Including the webinar, report and article.

Kelvin then reviews the latest rental price data, showing a significant increase which causes the team to consider if the latest tax changes are in fact being passed through to tenants (against our expectation).

There's also REINZ HPI data to chat about, net migration figures, including what will happen when the borders do finally open and surprisingly strong business confidence results.

The monthly video will also be published within the next day or so.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With the RBNZ lifting the OCR, from 0.25% to 0.50%, as widely expected, Kelvin and Nick spend a bit of time reviewing exactly why it has happened, especially in the international context of no other central banks expecting to lift for at least a couple of years.

Then there's consideration for what it means for the NZ property market and the broader economy, with further discussion on 'what next?'

The other data/releases covered are buyer classification data for September, the latest on agent appraisal volumes and a quick take on the just-announced shared equity scheme by the Government, as covered by Jenée at interest.co.nz.

Register and tune in to the regional vulnerability webinar on Tuesday 12 October at 11:30am to hear Nick and Kelvin release the report, looking at which markets are more vulnerable to price drops.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

The CoreLogic September House Price Index was released last week and aside from a further slowdown in the nationwide figure, there were some mixed results below that. Nick gives his take on what he thinks is happening before Kelvin delves into the detail about what a new build is according to the Government, as defined for the interest cost deductibility tax changes.

A mostly positive round up of other data releases in the last week is then closed off with Kelvin previewing the RBNZ OCR decision this Wednesday.

And finally, Nick discusses the upcoming live webinar/podcast to launch the CoreLogic Regional Vulnerability Report. Free to attend, you can register here to dial in next Tuesday 12 October at 11:30am.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

As they regularly do, the RBNZ keeps us busy and provide plenty of talking points when it comes to the property market. This week Nick and Kelvin reflect on the August lending figures and The Bank's confirmation of tighter lending restrictions for owner occupiers.

Kelvin also notes that the interest deductibility changes come into effect this Friday (1 October) without all the details, particularly around new builds, confirmed.

Meanwhile there are good signs for upcoming listings from the latest agent appraisal data.

This week, keep a look out for the coverage of the "Mapping the Market" interactive, evaluating suburb level performance, on the CoreLogic website, and filled jobs numbers will be of interest for labour market observers.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Rental price data is one of the most highly anticipated data releases these days with so much focus on landlords and their costs but interpretation of the data is unfortunately not straight forward. Nick and Kelvin do their best to evaluate where things are at, but all should be clearer in the next few months.

The guys also review the latest REINZ sales volumes and house price index data, which leads to reference of an explainer article published on stuff over the weekend about all the different companies and measures out there, evaluating the property market.

There's also the usual agent appraisal data to review and Kelvin provides his regular economic data update, including GDP figures for Q2 and surprisingly positive business confidence results.

The monthly market update video is now live and Kelvin's latest article analysing the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series is also up on the website.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Housing affordability is probably the number one topic of interest for kiwi right now (yep, above even Covid-19!) and last week we released the bi-annual CoreLogic Housing Affordability report, relating to data at the end of Q2.

Unfortunately the results paint a pretty grim picture for would-be home buyers, and with increasing interest rates things are also worsening for current home owners.

Nick and Kelvin discuss the current situation, latest data and also cover off the August buyer classification figures which illustrate some of the impact of the most recent/current lockdown.

Meanwhile agent appraisals volumes are recovering very well which is a good thing for a supply perspective.

The recent Real Estate webinar hosted and streamed by Trade Me Property which Nick mentioned is available for free on Youtube now.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

The CoreLogic House Price Index for August was released last week and while the overarching trend of the market slowdown hasn't changed the short term outlook has shifted slightly, due to the latest lockdown. But it's also worth noting what's different this time around.

Once again the Reserve Bank come through with more talking points. This time regarding tightening of lending standards for owner occupiers - in particular first home buyers. There's plenty of detail to chew over, which Kelvin and Nick do.

This week, look out for the latest release of the Corelogic (Un)Affordability Report, and net migration figures for July.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After a busy week of media interviews, in response to the release of the Pain & Gain report, both Nick and Kelvin give their take on why "it's different this time" when considering the market prospects once we come out of lock down.

Nick then covers off the latest figures tracking appraisals generated by agents (using Property Guru and RPNZ) which are a good guide for the flow of listings coming to market. The results are pretty positive when comparing to the last level 4 lockdown. If you're an agent, please get in touch to let us know how you're continuing to work in level 4.

Then, as per usual the RBNZ's not far from the conversation. Kelvin covers off the latest mortgage lending data, along with ANZ's consumer confidence survey results and Stats NZ's jobs filled series.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

What timing for the lockdown to occur! Just as we were awaiting the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and subsequent lift to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), we were put into a snap lockdown, and everything changed!

The OCR stayed flat with the Reserve Bank attributing the decision solely to the lockdown and all the unknowns that come with it. Nick and Kelvin discuss the decision, the future and all the other housing detail from the MPS - there was quite a lot!

Nick also brings back the early market indicator data in the form of the pre-listing measure of appraisals generated by agents to review the immediate impact of going to alert level 4 last Tuesday night.

Kelvin also provides his take on the latest NZ Activity Index, and there's mention of the upcoming Pain & Gain report, plus the monthly video is now live.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

According to the Corelogic Buyer Classification, first home buyers secured their largest (equal) share of purchases in July, but as previously discussed this is likely to change, with tighter lending restrictions ahead.

This includes stricter LVR limits and increasing interest rates, which we'll know more about this Wednesday (2pm) as the RBNZ releases its latest Monetary Policy statement. It's the hottest of topics right now so Kelvin provides his preview of the decision.

As always, the data and decision are so heavily intertwined and a look back at the latest data releases provides even greater comfort that a rise is on the cards.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

It seems the property market is allergic to having a quiet week, with the biggest news in the last 7 days being the Reserve Bank's proposal to tighten the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions for owner occupiers further. This will impact first home buyers the most and Nick and Kelvin discuss the details of that, along with the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data (LinkedIn post here).

Then the labour market statistics stormed the headlines with an incredible result where the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0% - on par with where it was before COVID hit our shores. Discussion about the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has subsequently turned to how many times and how high the OCR will lift as opposed to debating the August decision which seems almost certain to be at least a 0.25% rise.

Looking ahead, Kelvin's latest chart on rental prices puts the recent growth into context and there's plenty of other data to look out for this week.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

A big week of data releases in the last seven days are all in some way, shape or form linked to the potential for the official cash rate to increase at the next monetary policy statement release on August 18.

More people in jobs (pre-empting a falling unemployment figure this Wednesday) and strong business and consumer finance - with yet more evidence of increasing inflationary expectations are all pushing the OCR in the same direction - up.

Meanwhile a property market with strong momentum (lending and value growth) will also provide comfort to the RBNZ that a lift in interest rates will be able to be absorbed by mortgage holders.

Keep a look out for the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data out Tuesday 3 August at 6pm.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

This week Nick joins Kelvin in Christchurch to record in person for the first time ever!

A look back at the previous week includes a review of the CoreLogic Quarterly Property Market and Economic Report (free to download), which provides a great opportunity to have a broad chat on the state of the market and expectations for the future.

The NZ Activity Index offers up further evidence of our well performing economy, though there's still caution to be had.

Then looking ahead the key releases to watch for are RBNZ lending data, monthly jobs information, business and consumer confidence from ANZ and building consent figures for June.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a big week for economic data the chances of a lift in the official cash rate (OCR) have increased dramatically.

Nick and Kelvin firstly cover off the Monetary Policy Review from the RBNZ, where they left the OCR on hold, but announced an almost immediate end to Government bond buying - a clear sign of reduced support for a surprisingly well performing economy.

Then, combined with the CPI data for Q2 reporting 3.3% inflation over the prior year, it seems more likely than not that the OCR will be on the move up next month.

There was also rental price data for June, firming up the view that the increased cost burden of the interest deductibility changes may well be passing through to tenants.

And a quick look over the REINZ HPI data provided further evidence of a slowdown in market growth, with variability around the country perhaps a sign of things to come.

Monthly video available on youtube.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a special guest podcast Nick chats to Rupert Gough, CEO of Mortgage Lab.

With so much going on in the lending space Nick and Rupert discuss everything from recent value growth to the trends and impact of the bank of Mum and Dad helping out first home buyers.

A review of the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data leads to what's happening with investors right now, including how the tightened loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions have hindered their activity. Plus some surprise about the reaction to the interest deductibility changes and consideration for the potential impact of debt-to-income limits.

To finish off, the guys discuss everything to do with interest rates - including the forecast for the official cash rate (OCR), hot off the heals of the latest RBNZ monetary policy review, and what impact the pending lift in mortgage interest rates could have on the market.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

We start by looking at the Buyer Classification data for June, and it showed that the expected decline for mortgaged investors’ market share (on the back of the LVR changes) is now firmly underway – and this time it’ll be emphasised by March’s tax changes too. In relation to the current buyer mix, we also cover off some technical aspects of survey evidence and why some results need to be interpreted carefully.

It’s also worth noting that the consultation on the Government’s proposals around interest deductibility closes today (12th July).

We then move on to discussing the Reserve Bank’s next monetary policy decision and how/when mortgage rates (and the wider economy) might be affected. Perhaps the most important point is that the official cash rate now looks set to rise sooner than had been expected – perhaps even this year, rather than second half of next year.

And finally it’s a look ahead to upcoming data – including net migration and rental prices. When it comes to the outlook for rents, our view is that they won’t spike as a result of the tax changes; but we won’t be dogmatically sticking to that view if the data shows it to be wrong.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

The latest CoreLogic House Price Index data threw up a few surprises regionally - Gisborne, New Plymouth and Napier all experienced minor drops over the monthly measure. This leads to Nick and Kelvin considering whether we're in for a slowdown in growth or more of a downturn in values.

A recent report from S&P ratings suggested there's a 1 in 3 chance of a correction too, so the guys chat what sort of environment could lead to that happening.

From an economic perspective most of the recent data is positive, although inflation concerns are increasingly becoming the most important factor to watch for, with the flow on to interest rates the key consideration.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

We're now three months since the 'big, bold' Government housing announcement, which included the phased removal of interest cost deductibility for investors and an extension to the Brightline test.

Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to review any impact from the announced changes. This includes listing supply, mortgage demand, rental prices, buyer activity and value growth.

Kelvin also recaps May lending data as reported by the RBNZ, and there's a listener question to delve in to regarding the debt-to-income (DTI) proposals. Thanks to Jon for getting in touch.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Last week the Reserve Bank were technically granted permission to add debt-to-income (DTI) limits to their macro-prudential toolkit. With the news, came a paper with plenty of detail into how these mate work and who they might affect. Nick and Kelvin provide their takeaway points after giving the document the once over. One key upshot is that we're unlikely to see implementation of any limits this year.

The other big piece of news last week was the GDP figures for Q1, which surprised all economists for it's strength. In light of this, forecasts for interest rate increases have been brought forward my many in the industry.

There was also net migration data, rental price information and the REINZ stats to review and a look ahead to May lending data.

Check out the best of the best release for 2021 so far and the June video.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a slightly shorter pod than usual, Nick and Kelvin review the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data, showing investor activity further reducing in May.

While the drop is likely more attributable to the return of the tightened loan-to-value (LVR) limits, the interest deductibility changes for investors also comes up, especially off the back of the 143 page discussion document released by the Government.

Kelvin also takes a look at the latest data of how many properties are listed for sale, and the flow of properties coming to market.

Then, in the weekly economic review/preview the guys delve a little bit deeper into inflation expectations and why they matter when it comes to the property market and specifically mortgage holders interested in where interest rates are headed.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a quieter week for data releases Nick and Kelvin share a few anecdotal stories from a week of travel alongside Bayleys and Centuria.

Kelvin provides some insight into the aftermath of the Canterbury floods as well as the latest on his personal new build, plus his take on 'the vibe from the road' after speaking with investors around the country.

The CoreLogic HPI was the main data release of the week though and off the back of this Nick did an interview with Bernard Hickey to discus the results.

Kelvin then reviews the latest on business confidence and dwelling consent data, before a brief look ahead to the May Buyer Classification data which will be available this Friday.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Last week the Reserve Bank released it's latest Monetary Policy Statement and it provided plenty to chew over from a property perspective so Nick and Kelvin dedicate the majority of this week's podcast to it.

Kelvin also covers off recent and upcoming economic data, including filled jobs and confidence data, while Nick previews the imminent CoreLogic House Price Index release and rounds out the latest read on the early market indicators data which has now been retired.

And lastly, Nick touches on the release of the hugely popular Corelogic Pain & Gain report, just before Kelvin's connection drops out!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Hosted by Shelley Horton, Head of Valuation Strategy & Solutions, our Women in Business Podcast features lively discussions and tips on leadership and business by some of the top women leaders in the Valuations Industry.

This week Nick reviews the Government Budget, including Treasury's house price forecast and other implications from announced spending initiatives (or lack of).

Kelvin then gives an update on the latest RBNZ data and also what's to come - with their next Monetary Policy Statement due out this Wednesday.

Kelvin also covers the latest migration data and looks ahead to consumer confidecnce and job data, while Nick reports on the latest early market indicators.

Links to first home buyer report, monthly video and keep an eye out for the Q1 Pain & Gain report too.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With a bit more data available since the Government's bold changes announced on March 23, Nick and Kelvin run the rule over it all to assess any changes in behaviour.

The banks are also making adjustments to their serviceability calculations, with ANZ the first to advise a reduction in rental income able to be used in income calculations for borrowing, which according to Ed from Opes will reduce the total amount investors can borrow by up to 15%.

Kelvin also provides a high level overview of the latest CoreLogic first home buyer report, which goes live on Tuesday 18 May, and is free to download from corelogic.co.nz.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Off the back of the release of the CoreLogic House Price Index last week, Nick takes the opportunity to evaluate the performance of the market since the big Government announcement on March 23. The impact on property values is hard to assess, but other measures of market activity are very revealing in terms of a lack of reaction, despite commentary otherwise.

(and minor correction, Nick mentions the market potentially switching to a sellers' market - he of course means a buyers' market!)

Then Kelvin gives the RBNZ Financial Stability Report the full once-over to get a better understanding of the RBNZ's read of the economy and housing market (which featured heavily). This includes their take on potential tightening of loan-to-value ratio restrictions and assessment of debt-to-income limits and interest only lending caps.

To round out the pod, Kelvin reviews plenty of positive economic data and then looks ahead to upcoming data releases, in particular the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for April.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

This week, Nick is back from holiday to recap a busy past week as well as upcoming one when it comes to data and information relating to the property market.

Hot off producing the flagship CoreLogic Quarterly Property Market and Economic Update, which is absolutely free to download, Kelvin gives a quick summary of the state of the market prior to the Government's housing announcement on March 23.

There's also plenty of macro-economic data to recap, including lending data from the RBNZ, filled jobs data from Stats NZ and surveyed confidence data from ANZ.

Plus of course, a review of the latest CoreLogic Early Market Indicators, which shows a minor drop in demand for property, but nothing to intimate falling values are on the horizon.

There's plenty coming up as well, so settle in for your weekly summary of everything property.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With Nick away on leave in Southland (last time it was Northland; he loves the extremes of the country!), Kelvin takes up the reins and in lieu of much data being released over the past week, he looks ahead to upcoming releases.

After running through filled jobs and both business and consumer confidence, the discussion is about the mortgage lending figures for March – they’re likely to be strong, but more interest will be around the breakdown by LVR and by interest-only vs principal repayment.

Kelvin then loosely ‘myth busts’ about whether selling in Autumn/Winter is better or worse for vendors than Spring/Summer, and whether rising prices truly are ‘good’ for owner-occupiers.

The Pulse article referred to can be read here: https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/fatigued-first-home-buyers-likely-increase-focus-existing-properties

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this special episode Richard Deakin chats with Dr Georgia McGregor, CoreLogic's in-house construction data expert. Georgia has a fascinating background, having completed an Honours thesis on extraterrestrial architecture, followed by a PhD focussed on architecture in video games. She talks us through her studies, and their relevance to her current role as construction data expert within CoreLogic's Cordell costings team.

Georgia then touches on what it's like being a women in the building industry, her view on the sector's outlook, as well as similarities and differences between the New Zealand and Australian construction markets.

As part of the team responsible for maintaining and updating our market-leading costings database, which powers a number of solutions including Cordell Sum Sure and Cordell Commercial Estimator, Georgia also provides insight into how this data is kept up-to-date, as well talking about some of the trickier costings problems they have recently had to solve, including working out how much a commercial building weighs!

Firstly, apologies if the audio isn't perfect this week, we appeared to have a few connection issues while recording.

Coming off the back of a big week of data releases, Nick and Kelvin recap the key features of each release.

Of particular note is the Reserve Bank's update following the Official Cash Rate (OCR) review, as well as the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for March. Meanwhile REINZ also released their March statistics.

Stats NZ published the latest version of their rental price index which is of great interest, following the increased coverage of potential flow on impacts to tenants from the March 23 Government announcement regarding interest deductibility for property investors. This sparks a review of the different datasets tracking rents around the country.

Lastly, a quick review of the CoreLogic Early Market Indicators shows steady demand alongside slowing supply, intimating no major reaction from the market just yet.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With a heap of data being released this week, Kelvin and Nick take the opportunity to look ahead and not back. Kelvin details what to expect with the RBNZ OCR decision on Wednesday, with CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for March helping to set the scene.

From an economic perspective there's also migration data to be released, as well as the NZ Activity Index, measuring economic activity. Plus Kelvin gives praise to the RBNZ banking dashboard and the data he'll be checking for when it's updated this week.

Nick gives the usual warning about not giving too much weight to the change in median sales price measure which will likely feature heavily in the REINZ release for March. And there's also a bit of detail on the different measures out there on rental prices.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a special guest podcast, Nick is joined by Ed McKnight, resident economist at Opes Partners.

Ed talks in detail about how the latest Government announced changes are affecting investors strategies and plans for investing in property.

The analysis of the potential impact of the removal of interest deductability for property investors continues with a data-focussed look into the immediate cost increase facing current owners. As Nick explains, it should be relatively limited in the short term.

Part of the reason is due to the exceptional growth in the market, expecially in the last year or two. And as Nick mentions, according to the latest CoreLogic house price index results, the growth is evident across the country.

Kelvin then reviews the latest RBNZ data releases, including the end of the mortgage deferral program and some startling stats on recent debt-to-income figuires for first home buyers in particular. This leads to plenty of discussion on the future and potential risk of increased interest rates on the state of the market.

Then, in yet another jam-packed episode Kelvin covers off the latest confidence data as well as Stats NZ releases on filled jobs and building consents, before Nick rounds the pod out with a quick look at the early market indicators for upcoming supply and demand.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With almost a week to digest the big announcement from the Labour Government last week, Nick and Kelvin round up their thoughts and feedback from their recent travels presenting to clients.

An immediate look to the future includes reviewing the latest early market indicators data to see any intitial reaction from potential vendors/buyers.

Plus the latest Mapping the Market visualisation has been updated and it has proven very popular this time around.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a special edition, reactionary pod, Nick and Kelvin cover off the big announcement made by the Government on Tuesday 23 March 2021. The changes announced are as follows:

Remove interest deductibility for new investors immediately, and for existing owners phased to 2025 – new builds to be exempt
Extend Brightline Test to 10 years – new builds exempt from the extension
Raise income and price caps for FHB assistance
$3.8bn fund to help bring forward infrastructure
Extension of the Apprenticeship Boost initiative by four months, to further support trades and trades training.

Nick and Kelvin discuss the ins and outs of the changes as well as their likely impact (or not) on the housing market.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Off the back of the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data, showing further strengtth in investor activity, Nick and Kelvin have a wide ranging discussion about the potential of further restrictions on their activity, especially on interest only lending.

There's a lot to consider, including a look across the Tasman to what happened when they restricted these loan types, as well as a stock take of the current state of play here in NZ.

All eyes and ears are therefore on the Government's announcement in regards to addressing demand for property, expected this week - perhaps taking both a carrot and stick approach.

Kelvin also gives his take on the disappointing GDP figures for Q4 and Nick briefly covers the latest early market activity data.

The monthly video is now live on youtube.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

This week Nick and Kelvin review the latest Corelogic Buyer Classification data for February. With investor activity remaining elevated, the discussion covers the rush before the return of the loan-to-valuation ratio limits as well as the potential of restrictions on interest only loans. A look across the Tasman may offer some insight into what impact the restrictions may have.

From an economic perspective, the latest business confidence surveys show promise but there are reasons to be cautious in the lead up to the release of the Q4 GDP data. Kelvin covers this off, as well as the latest Stats NZ rental price index and what to expect when the latest migration data is released this week.

Meanwhile Nick takes a look at the latest early market indicator data, with signs of a reduction in demand for mortgages alongside weak expectations for new listings in the wake of recent moves up the COVID alert levels.

And don't forget to look out for the release of the Pain & Gain report for Q4 2020, out Tuesday morning.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

This week Nick and Kelvin review the Corelogic House Price Index release from last week. In general the results showed continued momentum in the market, however a blip in the Tauranga index raised questions on whether the expected slowdown is already upon us.

Then Kelvin reviews the latest economic data releases, with a particular focus on the construction industry, followed by the regular check in on the immediate market health through the CoreLogic Early Market Indicators.

And to round out the pod, the guys reference all the awesome content that has been produced to celebrate International Women's Day (8 March).

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In this very special edition of the podcast we celebrate International Women's Day by profiling three very successful and influential female leaders in the property and banking industry.

Nick welcomes Simone Moors, NZ Country Manager for CoreLogic, Debbie Mills, Tribe Lead for Home Ownership at ASB and Viv Gurrey, Chief Executive for the Property Institute of NZ.

Simone, Debbie and Viv share their experiences of working in big businesses all around the world and how they've made their way back to NZ to lead businesses/divisions within the property and banking industry.

There is a constant theme throughout the discussion about supporting people - through tailored banking needs, providing professional support, encouraging strong relationships in the industry and using data to make smarter decisions.

They also provide their thoughts as to what the 2021 International Women's Day theme of 'Chose to Challenge' means to them.

Check out all our International Women's Day coverage at corelogic.co.nz and get in touch with Nick on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or send an email to nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz

This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the big news of last week - that the Reserve Bank must take house prices into account when setting their policy.

The RBNZ also released their first Monetary Policy Statement for the year, which Kelvin reviews and considers where-to for interest rates.

The CoreLogic Affordability Report was released last week, illustrating the difficulty for first home buyers to get into the market. Kelvin provides a few high level insights but data for every city and town in the country is available in the report, which is which is free to download.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

This week Nick and Kelvin provide their take on the latest sales data for January, showing relatively low activity outside of Auckland.

A key release this week is the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report so Kelvin provides a preview of that ahead of the official release on Wed/Thur.

There's also a bit more discussion around the reintroduction of the loan-to-value ratio restrictions as coverage of it in the media increases.

Then, from an economic perspective the NZ Activity Index for January was unexpectedly weak, though still up compared to the previous year, while Kelvin also delves into the latest migration data, including a comparison with MIQ figures.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With the latest announcement of a move to alert level 3 in Auckland and 2 elsewhere, Nick and Kelvin cast their minds back to previous times this happened, using the early market indicators to help set expectations for the property market in the coming days.

With a bit more time to digest the announcement by RBNZ to reinstate the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions, there's also plenty more data from 2016 to get a feel for what the market will do after 1 May 2021.

Kelvin also chats about his latest article, analysing rental returns across the different value bands and Nick gives mention of the upcoming market updated being presented to Government clients at the RBNZ. Get in touch to be added to the invite list.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

A mid-podcast announcement from the RBNZ regarding the return of the LVR restrictions has Nick and Kelvin providing their 'live reaction'. With the proposed increase to 40% deposit requirement for investors from 1 May 2021 it aligns with most expectations and will likely lead to a slowing of property value growth from the middle of the year.

Before then Kelvin makes mention of the surprisingly strong labour market figures for Q4 2020, as unemployment dropped to 4.9% (from 5.3% in Q3).

There's also the Corelogic House Price Index data for January to cover, as well as the latest building consent data, foreign buyer stats and preliminary business confidence.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Off the back of the latest Quarterly CoreLogic Property Market and Economic report, Kelvin and Nick (freshly back from holiday) muse the likelihood of the LVR limits returning to a 40% deposit requirement sooner rather than later, given strong recent investor activity.

Kelvin then rounds up last week's economic releases - consumer confidence and filled jobs, before the regular analysis of the CoreLogic early market indicators, which indicate a continuation of strong demand against limited supply.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With Nick away on leave in Northland, Kelvin takes up the reins and outlines how the Early Market Indicators still point to a tight supply/demand balance over the next few weeks and months.

Meanwhile, the latest net migration figures have remained low and slow, and perhaps a bit ‘boring’ – certainly, other factors such as low mortgage rates and FOMO are more important for the property market right now.

Kelvin also discusses how CPI inflation was well-contained in Q4 2020 and that expectations for the official cash rate to go below zero have been pedalled back. The prospect of higher interest rates is still some way off, but does need to be kept in mind.

It’s also good to see CoreLogic data powering up Stuff’s Affordability Dashboard, but unfortunately for aspiring first home buyers, raising the deposit is still difficult.

Our Queenstown Pulse article also got some coverage last week, and outlines how the rebound in that part of the country is to do with supply & demand, and perhaps some ‘bargain hunting’ too.

Finally, note that the LVR consulation is now closed, so Kelvin discusses some of the relevant issues.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

With REINZ releasing their sales statistics for December, Nick runs through the figures on sales volumes as well as the headline index results.

Kelvin then delves into the latest economic releases, including strong jobs data, increasing rental figures and yet more dwellings being consented.

This provides the back-drop for a discussion on the health of the economy, the state of the rental market (amid upcoming tenancy law changes) and potential for Government intervention.

Nick also mentions the Stuff article covering the latest Buyer Classification data, showing continued strength in mortgaged investor activity.

And as per usual a scan over the latest CoreLogic early market indicators provides insight into the short term health of both inventory and demand.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

After a short summer break Nick and Kelvin are back on deck to chat about the year ahead in the property market.

The December CoreLogic House Price Index first rounds out the year though, with growth the order of the day. 6.1% growth over the final quarter of the year brings sustainability and affordability to the fore so Nick takes a look at the data to reveal what's happening from an affordability perspective.

Kelvin provides a summary of economic data release both recent and upcoming, with the NZ Activity Index (lead indicator for GDP) of most interest this Friday.

Nick then considers where to next for the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions, given the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series is showing investor activity at similar levels to the last time the Reserve Bank moved to the 40% deposit requirement for investors (2016).

And finally, a quick look over the CoreLogic early market indicators to see how activity in the new year has begun.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In a bumper final episode of the year, number 55, Nick and Kelvin look back at the year that was 2020 in the property market.

To kick things of this is done through the lens of the CoreLogic 'best of the best' report, released last week, before delving into a few highlights of the year.

A shorter look back at the last week of data and media coverage highlights Stuff's new affordability dashboard, complete with CoreLogic first home buyer data, and Kelvin recounts the strong GDP figures for Q3 as well as improving results from the latest ANZ confidence surveys.

Nick then has to reiterate his regular warning around using median sales prices to assess market performance after a few recent media stories did exactly that.

And finally, all signs, including CoreLogic early market indicators, point to much of the same strength occurring in 2021.

Corelogic final video of the year is here.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In episode 54 Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest correspondence between the RBNZ and the Minister of Finance. There's plenty to cover, including debt-to-income restrictions (a week after Kelvin wrote specifically about them) and other options to extend the RBNZ's mandate.

Sticking with the RBNZ, they're consulting on LVR re-introduction and the direct funding for lending programme is underway.

Meanwhile the Prime Minister has essentially stated that 'sustained moderation' remains the Government's goal when it comes to house prices, as people 'expect' the value of their most valuable asset to keep rising. Jenée Tibshraeny wrote an excellent piece on interest.co.nz about the Government's position.

There's also the latest buyer classification data, REINZ' latest release, the NZAC for November, new 'land banker' data and even more! It's a busy end to the year.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In episode 53 Nick covers off the latest CoreLogic House Price Index for November, as well as a few stats illustrating the affordability challenges at the moment.

Kelvin then gives an overview of DTIs (debt-to-income ratios) which have come back into the RBNZ's lingo again.

There's also a few solid economic release to cover, a seasonal drop away in listing and valuations activity and a lot to look forward to over the next week.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In episode 52 Nick and Kelvin weigh into what is becoming a very heated political topic right now - who is to 'blame' for the runaway growth in the NZ property market, and who needs to do what about it?

The CoreLogic Pain & Gain report also provides yet more evidence of the strong market and is available here.

And all signs from the CoreLogic Early Market Indicators reporting point to current trends to continue into and out the other side of the holiday break.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In episode 51 Nick and Kelvin discuss the release and results of the hugely popular first home buyer (FHB) report which showed how active FHBs have been and what part of the market they've been entering. Full report available here.

The RBNZ also released some revealing data with the total value of mortgages on deferral programme diminishing throughout October to significantly reduce the risk the proposed end of the scheme presents.

And a recap on the early market indicators reveals recent short term trends are likely to persist through the end of the year with agent appraisals slowing and bank valuations increasing.

The monthly video is available here.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In episode 50 Nick and Kelvin 'raise the microphone' to acknowledge the half century milestone and spend a decent amount of time reviewing a heck of a week for the Reserve Bank.

There's also plenty of October data to chew over - including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification series, NZ Activity Index and REINZ sales data.

And in a special treat for the 50th ep, Kelvin delves into the details of the CoreLogic First Home Buyers report ahead of the report going to the media!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 49 (with shorter intro), there are a few higher profile news stories to chat about, starting with whether or not first home buyers are worsening the housing crisis. But there were also a few 'records' being touted that may not have been as significant as they sound.

Kelvin then rounds up the economic data releases from last week, including building consents and unemployment figures, before looking ahead to an intriguing release from the RBNZ with their Monetary Policy Statement at Wed 2pm.

And finally a thanks to Roz for her correspondence about Queenstown!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 48, Nick kicks the pod off by delving into the latest CoreLogic House Price Index data for October. Values have accelerated off the back of continually strong demand and a lack of supply, which are also illustrated by the latest RBNZ lending stats.

The labour market continues to weather the COVID storm well, as Stats NZ report from their 'jobs filled' data. Kelvin provides the detail on this as well as ANZ's latest confidence surveys, which are also leaning towards the positive.

There's also foreign buyer stats, and a quick chat about the uplift in early market indicators for both supply and demand.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 47, there's plenty of economic data to chew over, starting with the NZ Activity Index (NZAC). This is the more timely measure of economic activity, essentially pre-empting the official GDP figures. September's result was surprisingly strong and ends Q3 on a solid note.

There was also an update to the population growth figures for every TA (city/town) across the country, so Kelvin provides an overview of the areas with the greatest, and not-so-greatest increases.

Then as per usual Nick updates us on what the early market indicators are telling us about immediate property supply and demand, before getting Kelvin to get his crystal ball out for the latest mortgage lending stats.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 46, Nick and Kelvin discuss the election result from the weekend and potential implications for the property market.

Kelvin then goes over the latest migration data, and provides clarity on the strength or otherwise of NZ citizens on the overall migration picture.

There's also the latest sales numbers for September following the REINZ data release and insight on the strength of mortgage demand through the banks.

The latest monthly video is now live at https://youtu.be/PTXV8jVASa0.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 45, Nick is joined by Rupert Gough, CEO and founder of Mortgage Lab and author of 'The Successful First Home Buyer' book.

Rupert began working in the mortgage advice industry in 2011 and, after moving to Auckland in 2014, started The Mortgage Lab in early 2017.

He talks to Nick about how the market has reacted to the craziness of 2020 and talks through what's happening from a finance assessment point of view through the banks.

Rupert has great advice for first home buyers and investors alike and provides great insight into the mortgage advisor world.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz.

Rupert can be contacted at rupertg@mortgagelab.co.nz

In Episode 44, Nick and Kelvin discuss the swathes of data which reflect the recent strength of the market. This includes results from the REINZ/Tony Alexander survey of agents, MBIE rental bond data and the preliminary ANZ Business Confidence data for October.

There's also a bit of housing policy to consider as the National Party released more details of their plans, if they're successful at the election this week.

Plus of course there's a bit of discussion on the All Blacks' drawn Bledisloe Cup test which Nick and his family attended!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 43, Nick and Kelvin pore over the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) data, which in general has shown a surprisingly strong property market. https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/property-market-enters-spring

There are a number of recent economic releases which help understand some of the context for that strength so Kelvin details those which prompts a bit of a broader discussion on the overall state of the market.

Add to this Kelvin's recent article analysing Auckland, and a quick look at the early market indicators report and it's another bumper pod you don't want to miss. https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/hows-aucklands-property-market-travelling

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 42, Kelvin delves into the latest releases from the RBNZ, namely the Monetary Policy Review (where the Bank reviews the OCR and Quantitative Easing Programme) and the lending stats for August.

We also have the latest credit card spend stats and the broader measure of economic activity, the NZ Activity Index for August to mull over.

Nick also provides the latest from the CoreLogic early property market indicators, with both appraisals generated and valuations ordered recently playing a bit of catch-up.

Kelvin was busy with media last week too, including speaking with Jenée Tibshraeny from interest.co.nz about the effectiveness of the brightline test. Full article is here https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107219/efficacy-using-tax-deter-property-speculation-air-meanwhile-national-campaigns

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 41, Kelvin gives his take on the latest record breaking GDP data for Q2, the key question being is it really relevant anymore, given the more reactive NZ Activity Index (August data out this Friday).

The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) was released last week so the guys discuss what it is and how it is relevant for the property market.

And the CoreLogic Buyer Classification stats for August show mortgaged investors and first home buyers remain a key presence in the current market, ahead of RBNZ mortgage lending figures coming out this week.

Then, looking ahead, Kelvin is keenly awaiting the latest RBNZ review of the OCR and QE programme, while the monthly video is now live. https://youtu.be/wO9ij273AMo

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 40, Nick kicks off with recognition of Te Wiki o te Reo Māori (Māori Language Week), before a quick discussion on Kelvin's weekend away embracing everything Taupō has to offer (while always scoping economic health and potential impacts on the property market!)

Agent activity is back to early August levels (before the latest restrictions were imposed) but the recent drop has already been noted in reduced for-sale listings coming to market at a time when we should've seen a lift for spring.

Kelvin then reviews ANZ's latest business confidence survey as the bank says things 'could be worse', and with the wage subsidy about to end we'll see if that's the case very soon.
There's also MBIE data showing rents easing, net migration continuing to fall and REINZ reporting strong sales volumes, though Nick has a word of warning around some earlier comparisons to 2019 volumes being a little selective.

The latest mapping the market interactive is live here https://www.corelogic.co.nz/mapping-market

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 39, Nick provides an update to previously reported CMA data as the recent drop was overstated, though the message of upcoming listings being restrained remains true.

Valuations being ordered keep holding up too, so the recent trend of values remaining firm will likely continue.

Kelvin also wraps up the latest macro-economic data releases in between discussion around RBNZ's latest commentary and the extension of the current alert level restrictions.

If you missed last week's big releases, links for each are below:

https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/corelogic-house-price-index-aug-2020

https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/new-corelogic-housing-affordability-report-finds-boost-falling-interest-rates

More info about the HPI:

https://www.corelogic.co.nz/corelogic-house-price-index

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 38, Nick and Kelvin reflect on a busy week where the latest House Price Index was released under the CoreLogic brand and Kelvin took the inaugural CoreLogic Affordability Report to market (via TVNZ Breakfast!)

Links for each release below:

https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/corelogic-house-price-index-aug-2020

https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/new-corelogic-housing-affordability-report-finds-boost-falling-interest-rates

More info about the HPI:

https://www.corelogic.co.nz/corelogic-house-price-index

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 37, Nick and Kelvin chat about the state of play as Auckland moves down to level 2.5. Appraisals generated by agents are down 62% prior to the latest lockdown, but valuations ordered for mortgages are up 9%.

Reserve Bank lending data for July was strong, as was Stats NZ filled jobs data but consumer confidence from the August reading did take a minor dip, although given the latest restrictions that wasn't surprising.

There are also some very exciting CoreLogic releases to chat about, including the first release of the CoreLogic HPI, last week's Pain & Gain Report for Q2 and the impending release of the CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report. Plus CoreLogic have a new website for all your property research needs - propertyvalue.co.nz

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 36, Nick and Kelvin chat about the extension of support to the economy off the back of the latest return to social restrictions. This includes an extension to the wage subsidy scheme and the mortgage deferral scheme.

There has been a bunch of data about the potential impact to the economy of the latest lockdown so Kelvin breaks it all down and the pair also discuss the media coverage of missed mortgage payments from last week.

Lastly, Nick covers off the latest insights from the CoreLogic early market indicators as appraisals completed by agents plummeted since the return to lockdown level 3 in Auckland, but demand for mortgages holds up.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 35, Nick is back at home due to the latest lockdown and of course that is a key topic which he and Kelvin cover. Starting off with pre-listing activity which has already taken a dive.

Kelvin then provides an in depth overview of the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement, while touching on the (now confirmed) extension to the wage subsidy and mortgage deferral schemes.

There's plenty of economic data to discuss too, as well as the latest REINZ data for July, and recording happened hot on the heels of the announcement of the election date being delayed a month.

And the monthly video for August is now live at https://youtu.be/ZSCSLApniew

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 34, Nick and Kelvin work through the surprising unemployment data released from Stats NZ last week as well as the results from the July QV House Price Index.

Also, the RTA (Residential Tenancies Act) Amendment Bill passed its final reading under urgency last week, so the lads consider its potential impact to the market.

The early market indicators are also providing some intriguing trends, and then there's plenty to watch out for this week, including the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and the NZ Activity Index.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 33, Nick and Kelvin (after too much sports chat!) muse over the latest market activity data, showing the beginnings of a lift in listings at the same time as a drop in demand - is it a sign of the market turning?

Kelvin speaks about his second interview in a week with TVNZ - this time to discuss the restrained lending figures and why it's probably a good thing.

And there's a heap more data to cover too - building consents, foreign buyer stats, jobs filled and confidence surveys.

The COVID-19 special edition of the CoreLogic quarterly report is now out and available here.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 32, Nick and Kelvin discuss the continued flow of strong property and economic related data.

Credit card spending and mortgage lending activity are two more data series showing the return to 'normal' levels.

Kelvin also chats about his visit from TVNZ news, focusing on rental prices in Queenstown and also his latest market pulse which stressed the importance of understanding market activity due to the reduction in transaction numbers for the year.

The quarterly report isn't out yet but will be available here, later in the week.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 31, Nick and Kelvin discuss yet more strong data on the economy and property market. Appraisals generated, new listings to market and valuations ordered are all holding up solidly, especially for this time of the year.

And from an economic perspective the NZ Activity Index (early read on GDP) is showing economic activity at similar levels to last year for June.

Add to that the latest House Price Index release from REINZ shows strength in property values towards the end of Q2. Of course, as Nick and Kelvin regularly say, the risks still remain so broader market optimism needs to be kept in check.

The latest market update video is available https://youtu.be/v6hvTlrrG-o

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 30, Nick and Kelvin reaffirm the relative normality the market appears to have found, although the rental market is offering up some interesting insights for property investors to take note of.

Kelvin then chats about his latest market pulse which looked into the apartment market in general (IE. not related to COVID!), and the latest ANZ business confidence results.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 29, Nick and Kelvin assess what happened to property values in Q2 off the back of the recently created quarterly house price index, and as per usual check in with the early market indicators to understand current activity.

Kelvin then details the new economic activity measure constructed by Stats NZ, Treasury, and Reserve Bank which correlates very closely with GDP and provides further evidence of the recession we're in.

There's also dwelling consent figures, ANZ business confidence, CoreLogic real estate agent survey and news of an end date for the wage subsidy.

Plus we're asking for your questions on something technical you'd love an exposé on. Be that property CV, E-Valuer (AVM), house price indices or one of the many economic indicators out there, we'd love to hear what you want to know about.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 28, Kelvin details the busy week of Reserve Bank releases last week, including the hold to the OCR and a smaller than expected bounce back in mortgage lending.

Market indicators are starting to normalise seasonally, but Nick provides the high level trends and evaluates property demand through bank activity.

The guys also discuss the latest rental listings data, Stats NZ's recent release on employment figures and look ahead to the QV House Price Index, building consent stats for May and ANZ's upcoming business confidence survey.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 27, Nick catches up with Richard Deakin who is the head of insurance at CoreLogic NZ.

Richard has a long history with CoreLogic in many different roles but most recently as the conduit for insurance companies to help them get the best data to help with their decision making in relation to property.

Richard provides excellent detail on how the industry has changed in the wake of the Christchurch Earthquakes almost a decade ago as well as how they've responded to COVID-19.

He also mentions the recently released Flood Mapping tool, which you can find out more about here. https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/get-most-complete-view-flood-risk-throughout-new-zealand

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz.

Richard can be contacted at richard.deakin@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 26, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest market activity showing signs of seasonal normality now we're a few weeks into winter.

Kelvin details his latest analysis on the migration picture, recently released GDP figures and which buyers transacted over the months of April and May.

The guys briefly mention the latest market update video as well as the latest update to the mapping the market tool (https://www.corelogic.co.nz/mapping-market), before Kelvin looks ahead to an interesting week of RBNZ releases.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 25, Nick chats to Craig Russell, Registered Valuer and Director at Telfer Young Northland.

Craig has a broad and deep experience in valuations and he delves into how valuers are currently navigating so much uncertainty.

He talks to Nick about the role technology has played as well as providing real time insight into how the market is performing. This includes across different price bands, while also analysing who is actually looking to sell at the moment as well as who the active buyers are.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz.

Craig can be contacted at craig.russell@telferyoung.com

In Episode 24, Nick and Kelvin interpret the just-released REINZ data for May with values showing definite weakness.

The latest early market activity indicators are also showing signs of a slow-down as the pent up demand from lock-down starts to diminish and we hit winter.

Plus there's migration data, the new REINZ Market Confidence report (written by Tony Alexander), business confidence results and Kelvin's latest pulse article on the cost to trade-up to chew over.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 23, Nick catches up with Bindi Norwell, CEO at the Real Estate Institute of NZ.

In a wide ranging interview Bindi speaks about the role the Institute played throughout each of the lockdown levels, advocating for its members with the Government.

Bindi also talks about the way the industry has changed and the role of technology, data and the banking industry. Despite everything going on though, Bindi stresses that the industry is one based upon relationships and is set to thrive once again in Level One.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 22, Nick and Kelvin discuss the need to remain balanced in our outlook as positivity abounds with the news of a shift to Level 1.

They also discuss the latest data showing the potential for a second larger wave of unemployment on the horizon and what it could mean for the property market.

Kelvin also covers off his latest pulse article analysing the investment yields of different types and sizes of properties and of course they check in with the latest data on market activity.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 21, Nick and Kelvin cover off the latest from their early market indicators showing activity remaining strong.

Nick also provides some guidance when interpreting all the different market measures out there, especially important off the back of the latest QV House Price Index data.

Meanwhile Kelvin gives his own review of the RBNZ's latest Financial Stability Review, which was released last week, particularly focusing on what it tells us about the property market.

And of course the CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q1 2020 is now out and available here https://www.corelogic.co.nz/reports/pain-and-gain.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 20, Nick and Kelvin discuss market momentum as signs of optimism become clearer.

As always there is a word or two of caution however, with figures on mortgage deferrals and redundancies announced at Fletcher's (among others) illustrating we're not through the woods just yet.

There's also credit card spending data, the latest ANZ Property Focus and some changes to the building act to digest.

The Economist article Nick references can be seen here (thanks Alex Gunn!). https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/23/the-pandemic-will-leave-the-rich-world-deep-in-debt-and-force-some-hard-choices

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 19, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest market activity, from busy open homes to the increasing number of mortgage valuations being sourced.

Kelvin provides an excellent summary of the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement as well as the $50bn Government budget announced late last week.

There's also REINZ sales data for April to chew over, plus business confidence data and net migration figures.

Check out the latest monthly video here https://youtu.be/GBeAG74m8zM and all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news

Get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 18, Nick catches up with Tony Alexander, independent economist and market commentator.

With over 25 years as BNZ's Chief Economist Tony has a wealth of knowledge and experience to help Kiwis understand and navigate these uncertain and unnerving COVID-19 times.

Tony provides his take on everything from bank funding to whether there's an under-supply and from the potential for some areas to see property value growth in 2020 to the just released Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank.

You can subscribe to "Tony's View", his weekly publication, by heading to http://tonyalexander.nz/ and you can contact Tony at tony@tonyalexander.nz

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or LinkedIn, or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 17, Nick and Kelvin give their immediate reaction to the Government's announcement of the plan to move to level 2, starting this Thursday 14 May.

Kelvin previews a massive week for data and announcements coming up, including a Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement (including Official Cash Rate review), the Government Budget, REINZ April Stats and Net migration figures for March.

And of course the team interpret the latest early market indicators and the QV House Price Index before discussing their 'regional vulnerability' analysis and looking across the ditch for any insight to be taken from their data.

We also have a listener question this week about whether the success of working from home throughout lockdown could prove a long term fillip for the regions.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL, Linkedin or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 16, Nick and Kelvin discuss the uplift in the latest real-time activity data they're tracking and the confirmation of the loan-to-value ratio restrictions being temporarily removed by the RBNZ.

Nick also speaks about the results from an investor survey CoreLogic ran to get a pulse on that section of the market, while Kelvin rounds up the latest economic data releases.

Nick then shares some insight into what to expect and be aware of when it comes to the upcoming release of the latest QV House Price Index results, and the lads weigh in on a recent article proposing a bumpy road ahead for the property market.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 15, Kelvin chats with Peter Newbold, the General Manager of Real Estate for PGG Wrightson.

Peter has been in his current role since September 2013 and has plenty of prior real estate experience, as well as marketing, business development, and retail business ownership/franchising.

Peter’s view is that real estate volumes (provincial residential, lifestyle, and farms) will encounter some volatility over the rest of 2020, but the long-term outlook is good – supported by positive prospects for the wider agricultural sector. He also believes that the rapid adoption of new technology during lockdown will be a lasting feature in the real estate industry.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Firstly apologies for the minor technical issue recording this week, which caused some audio to bug out.

In Episode 14, Nick and Kelvin discuss the good news for the industry that real estate can be transacted again now that we are in COVID-19 level 3 restrictions, and what the latest real-time activity data is showing.

They also consider the latest announcement from the Reserve Bank that the loan-to-value ratio restrictions will be temporarily removed. Why are they doing it and what impact might it have?

Nick also plugs the comprehensive Quarterly Property Market & Economic Report which was released last week. Available to download for free here https://www.corelogic.co.nz/news/q1-property-market-economic-update-released-today

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 13, Nick catches up with Glenn Stevenson the Head of Mortgages for ANZ Bank.

With over 25 years in banking and finance, Glenn knows the ins and outs of the industry and in his role as head of mortgages Glenn oversees everything to do with home loans at NZ's largest bank, ANZ.

Glenn offers up some great insight behind the curtain at the banks, including figures around the take up of the packages offered to help people through the rocky waters offered up by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The theme of the podcast has to be communication, with Glenn advising to get in touch with your lender as soon as possible if you're experiencing any level of uncertainty or change.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 12, fresh from the Government's announcement of the extension of the level 4 COVID-19 lockdown, Nick and Kelvin discuss what level 3 could mean for the property market.

Nick also mentions CoreLogic's early market indicator report, available for free to anyone wanting to track the most recent movements in the market, and Kelvin talks about the latest announcement from the Treasury.

And finally, Kelvin turns the table on Nick to hear about his bubble, what he's missing most and his Netflix recommendations.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 11, Nick calls up Lloyd Budd, Director for Bayleys Commercial and Industrial in Auckland to chat about the commercial property market in detail.

Lloyd has 17 years of global experience across development, agency and leadership and brings a unique, big-picture approach to innovation. Lloyd has extensive relationships across the commercial market to help in form how the industry is faring, and is likely to navigate the turmoil ahead.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Lloyd is active on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/lloydbudd/

In Episode 10, Nick and Kelvin chat about the latest data, which shows activity may have started to pick up, in anticipation of the lock down ending.

Kelvin discusses his latest article which focused on what might be in store for property investors, based on their activity around the country and probable reduction in demand in some areas.

And the lads give their take on the whole idea that 'property doubles in value every 10 years'.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 9, Nick calls up Nigel Jeffries - Head of Trademe Property to chat everything property. Nigel has a long history in property in NZ and abroad and talks about how COVID-19 has impacted the Trademe business in the short term and where he thinks the market is headed.

Nigel also has some sound advice to agents and other businesses dealing with a hit to their revenue.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 8, Nick and Kelvin are joined by Sam McIntyre, owner at Tall Poppy Real Estate. As per usual there is plenty to chat about as we make our way through the lock down and Sam has plenty of wise words for Real Estate Agents kicking back at home.

Plus, we answer a listener question after Mattias got in touch regarding the short term accommodation market as well as the new build market.

And don't miss Kelvin's updated 10 key things to help you make sense of it all regarding coronavirus and the property market.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

Sam is active on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook, just search Sam McIntyre Real Estate

In Episode 7, Nick and Kelvin, both in lock down at their respective homes, talk through some of the real-time data they're tracking to understand industry behaviour leading into the coronavirus enforced lock down.

They also discuss some of the economic forecasts out there to start to imagine what the post-lock down property market might look like.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

(NB - This podcast was recorded before the announcement from the Government for the country to move to alert level 4 within 48 hours in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.)

In Episode 6, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest on the coronavirus and likely impacts to the property market, including where to from here with regards to GDP, property sales transactions and buyer activity.

Plus our latest Monthly video is out. https://youtu.be/UJ6ehtxzblU

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 5, Nick and Kelvin are joined by Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia, Eliza Owen.

Fresh from the RBNZ's emergency announcement of a 75 basis point cut to the OCR, taking it to 0.25%, the team consider all the potential impacts to the residential property market. Of course at the heart of it all is the ever-changing situation of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and the flow through to the economy.

Plus, with Eliza on board the team chat about the property market in Australia and touch on some of the similarities and differences to the NZ market.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or @eliza_owen or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 4, Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest House Price Index data and building consents issued. Plus they've a few interesting anecdotes from their week out and about.

Mapping the Market tool, to visualise median values and value change by suburb available at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/mapping-market

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 3, Nick (fresh from welcoming a new baby into the world!) and Kelvin pick out a few key insights from the recently released Pain & Gain report. Kelvin gives his take on the latest mortgage lending figures released by the Reserve Bank and he also considers the impact of Coronavirus on the NZ Property market.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 2, Nick and Kelvin chat about the latest REINZ data, including the recent strength of the Auckland property market and a caution for the median sales price measure. Kelvin's also talks about his latest market pulse on investment yields around the country, and the lads ponder what's in store for the year and whether history can really repeat when it comes to such strong gains over the last decade or more.

Check out all CoreLogic Research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news, and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

In Episode 1, Nick and Kelvin chat about the latest RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and the included OCR decision. They also review recent investor market activity according to the latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data and discuss housing affordability, a pretty hot topic in NZ at the moment, especially with the General Election scheduled for 19 September 2020.

Check out all CoreLogic Research info at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL

Introduction of the CoreLogic NZ Property Market Podcast.

Bringing you all the news, stats and insights on the NZ Property Market weekly.

Hosted by Nick Goodall, Head of Research.