Native Angelino with Tom Levine: Recent Episodes
Tom Levine
From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree. Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon". Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
www.1929.live
The U.S. stock market is priced for perfection. Gold and the S&P 500 have reached all-time highs. Interest rates are likely to be cut this month, the employment picture looks to be weakening and tariff policy remains in flux.
In this episode of The Native Angelino Podcast, I am joined by Adam Phillips, CFA of EP Wealth Advisors. We discuss equities, interest rates, gold, bitcoin, alternative investments and the current political climates impact on the Federal Reserve.
Will an interest rate cut stimulate the housing market? What about in cities like Los Angeles where residential real estate prices far exceed national averages?
Adam oversees portfolio strategy for his firm and provides insights on the current economic climate and outlook for the coming quarters.
Chapters
00:00 Intro - Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty
00:20 The Taco Trade
01:30 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact
04:30 Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Dynamics
07:09 Gold's Rise and Market Sentiment
09:45 EP Wealth Advisors
12:00 Real Estate and Client Portfolios
14:10 Interest Rates and Consumer Behavior
16:13 Market Valuations and Economic Disparities
17:36 Government Intervention and Market Dynamics
21:32 Digital Assets and Bitcoin's Role
27:00 Alternative Investments and Market Trends
33:05 Current Economic Focus and Fed Independence
Summary - Priced For Perfection
In this conversation, Adam Phillips and Tom Levine discuss various economic factors affecting the market, including interest rates, Federal Reserve policies, tariff policy, gold as a safe haven, real estate investment strategies, and the impact of digital assets. They explore the current state of the economy, the challenges posed by inflation, and the implications of government intervention in the market. The discussion also highlights the differences in investment perspectives between older and younger generations, as well as the importance of financial planning in navigating these uncertain times. Takeaways Market volatility is influenced by economic uncertainty and government policies. Interest rates are a critical factor in shaping market dynamics and investor behavior. Gold is viewed as a safe haven amidst geopolitical risks and inflation concerns. Real estate remains a significant asset for many clients, especially in high-value areas. Alternative investments are gaining traction as a means to diversify portfolios. Lower interest rates could stimulate housing demand but may not significantly impact high-net-worth clients. Market valuations are currently high, raising concerns about potential downside risks. Government intervention in markets raises questions about the future of economic stability. Digital assets like Bitcoin are becoming more mainstream but remain highly speculative. Younger investors are more open to alternative investments compared to older generations.
đ§ Subscribe to the Native Angelino Podcast: https://bit.ly/Subscribe-NativeAngelino
Conversations with strategists, technicians, and culture shapers.Smart insight from a Native Angelino perspective.
Adam Phillips, CFAÂŽ, CAIA, CFPÂŽ
Adam is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFAŽ), a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER⢠(CFPŽ), and has been included on the Forbes NextGen Best-in-State Wealth Advisors 2019 list. He is a member of the CFA Society of Los Angeles and the CFA Institute. Adam helps establish asset allocation strategy as a member of the EP Wealth Investment Committee, which supports all EP Wealth Advisors and their clients. He is a graduate of USC and earned his MBA at UCLA.
About Tom Lev ine
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics.
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors.
Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential, commercial and investment related transactions. Additionally, he is a broker and certified Short Sale and Forclosure specialist under the National Association of Realtors. (CADRE #2052698)
Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
Neither the author, nor Native Angelino is a registered investment advisor, legal, tax professional or broker / dealer. All investment/ financial opinions expressed here are from the personal research, experience, and opinions of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur. Do your Own Research please. Our content is for informational purposes only.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
đď¸ Guest: Peter McNally, CFAđ§ Episode Title: The Return of Industrial Riskđď¸ Published: [Insert Date]đ Topics: Tariffs, Trade Policy, Supply Chains, Energy Markets, CapEx, Nuclear, AI Infrastructure
đš Episode Summary
In this conversation, Tom Levine speaks with Peter McNally, CFA of Third Bridge about how the return of tariffs, the hesitancy around long-term capital investment, and the future of energy are reshaping the economy.
McNally explains why many so-called reshoring announcements may just be âwindow dressing,â how cheap natural gas, as much as, policyâdisplaced coal, and why nuclear innovation may take longer than public timelines admit.
From AI-driven energy demand to restarting Three Mile Island, this episode looks at what happens when old industrial tools become relevant again.
đ§ Highlights
Why companies are absorbing tariffs in the short-run instead of rewiring supply chains
The silent CapEx pause â and what it means for markets
LNG, shale, and the fracking technologies that changed U.S. energy
Small Modular Reactors and the limits of nuclear scale-up
AI data centers, power shortages, and the real energy bottleneck
âWeâre all going to have to be students again.â
đ Resources & Mentions
Guest: Peter McNally â Third Bridge
Reference: Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Topics: SMRs, Trade Policy, Data Center Buildouts
đŹ Subscribe for More
Smart conversations about policy, power, and real capital in Los Angeles and beyond.đ§ Full archive: https://www.1929.live
00:00 Economic Impact of Tariffs
02:20 Long-term Capital Expenditure Trends
04:48 The Role of Third Bridge in Market Analysis
07:36 Tariffs and Global Trade Perspectives
10:14 The Future of Railroads and Shipping
12:34 Consolidation in the Rail Industry
15:14 The Intersection of Rail and Trucking
17:35 Airlines and Economic Resilience
24:28 Post-COVID Travel Demand Surge
25:45 Energy Sector Innovations and LNG Success
27:19 Technological Advances in Energy Production
30:14 Natural Gas: The Future of Energy
30:58 Data Centers and Energy Demand
34:08 Nuclear Energy: Challenges and Opportunities
38:55 Investing in Energy: The Case for Natural Gas
43:33 Market Overview: Corporate Earnings and Valuations
48:47 Wealth Disparity and Consumer Health
50:44 Native Angelino Podcast
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
In this episode, Tom Levine asks Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies how she uses technical analysisâprice charts, support and resistance levels, and momentum signalsâto interpret market behavior.
The summer of 2025 has brought new stock market highs even in the face of tariffs, potential trade wars, shooting wars, a declining dollar and continued volatility across asset classes.
Katie Stockton, CMT is a nationally recognized expert in technical analysis and the founder of Fairlead Strategies, an independent research firm.
Her approach helps investors and advisors navigate complex markets through structure, not speculation.
Katieâs work encompasses all major sectors of the stock market, the bond market, gold, and bitcoin/crypto â with a disciplined, chart-driven method grounded in technical indicators and trend analysis.
This conversation was recorded in July 2025 as part of the Native Angelino Podcast with Tom Levine and is the third in the series with Katie. Links to the archived episodes are in the show notes.
About Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. She is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK), launched in 2022.
Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. She served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners, and worked with teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview.
Katie holds the distinction of being the youngest female to have attained the Chartered Market Technician (CMTÂŽ) designation in 2001. She has served as Vice President of the CMT Association and currently sits on the board of Cary Street Partners.
As an official CNBC contributor, she regularly shares market perspectives and is often quoted in Barronâs and MarketWatch.
âđ§ Subscribe to the Native Angelino Podcast: https://bit.ly/Subscribe-NativeAngelino
Conversations with strategists, technicians, and culture shapers.Smart insight from a Native Angelino perspective.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
One year ago, Jason Haber organized a petition seeking the resignation of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) President Kenny Parcell. Within days, the executive was gone, and Haber's life had changed forever.
The petition's momentum, albeit rapid and fierce, can not compare to the tectonic shifts already in motion in the real estate industry. For years, multiple clusters of fanged lawsuits have worked their way through the justice system.
Sitzer-Burnett vs NAR
The NAR and co-defendants lost a major battle and faced a monster penalty that stoked the fear of bankruptcy with a dagger looming close to their not-so-not-for-profit hearts.
The recent implementation of a DOJ and court-guided settlement (proposed) of the Sitzer-Burnett (and related) cases has changed and upended the staid and foggy practices of running a real estate business, ushering in a new era promising transparency and accountability.
If the Department of Justice stays quiet (unlikely) and the Court approves the recently implemented practice changes and settlement of the Sitzer-Burnett cases, the real estate industry may be on track to compete and operate ethically in the modern era.
These practice changes will undoubtedly require numerous iterations to perfect and reshape tired traditions embedded in U.S. real estate businesses. Whether or not the legacy trade association and old-line business models can adjust is to be determined.
American Real Estate Association
Jason Haber and Mauricio Umansky, CEO/Founder of the Agency, announced in January the formation of a new trade organization, the American Real Estate Association, which is billed as "built by agents, for agents."
The American Real Estate Association has the potential to become a significant alternative to the NAR. With a focus on modern tools and methods, it aims to avoid the bloat and rust of its elder industry mate.
Jason Haber Is Not Afraid
During this discussion, Haber was direct, clear, and personable, holding nothing back while describing the failings of real estate agents, brokers, brokerages and the national trade organization.
His commitment to improvement, good trouble, and forward momentum inspires confidence and a desire to get involved.
The winds of generational change apply not only to politics but also to the business of residential real estate.
Authorâs Note
Haber declined to comment when asked if the plaid shirt worn during this interview is a nod to the current election cycle and the Vice-Presidential candidate.
American Real Estate Association | NYTimes
Haber Rattling - Agent Comes For The NAR | The Real Deal
Et Tu, Agent? Commission-Based Steering in Residential Real Estate
Publications and Podcasts by Tom Levine
Real Estate Consultant vs Real Estate Agent
Will The Realtor Settlement Be Approved
The Strategic Impact of the Sitzer-Burnett Settlement on Real Estate Practices
Real Estate Tokenization - Part 1
Stock Market Highs and Real Estate Risk
About The Author And Podcast Host
Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group and Native Angelino Real Estate, offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors. CA DRE #02052698
Schedule A Free Consultation
I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures, I would be pleased to have a discussion. Schedule a call here.
Tom Levine, Real Estate Broker and Consultant
Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
Pia Mia - Social Media Savvy Buinessperson
Approaching a staggering 1 Billion YouTube views, 780 million TikTok views, 10 million Instagram followers, 2.5 million monthly Spotify listeners with a 77% conversion rate, Pia Mia's reach is undeniable.
Big numbers for the woman from Guam who came to LA as a 13-year-old girl.
Her music and creativity resonate with millions.
Since arriving in California, she has collaborated on a multi-platinum record, acted in feature films, developed a branding entity and, within the last two weeks, released her first book.
Episode Notes
00:15 - Introduction
01:15 - Book Release
02:15 - From Guam to Hollywood via Urth Cafe
07:00- A Drake Cover, Kanye and Dinner
15:55 - Publishing vs Music Industry
19:00 - SAND, Sequins, and Silicone - a reading
22:00 - Anna Todd, After, Wattpadd
23:00 - Branding and Social Media
25:50 - Spotify engagement, TikTok, Instragram Live and YouTube
31:05 - A Multi-Platinum Story
35:30 - Helpful Business Tips From Pia Mia
Sand, Sequins & Silicone
Released May 14, 2024 by publisher Frayed Pages x Wattpad Books. Available atAmazon, Barnes and Noble and other major retailers.
Mentioned in the Episode
Madonna Names Pia Mia as Material Girlâs Fashion Director
Pia Mia Went Viral Covering Drake
Wattpad - The world's largest storytelling community
Anna Todd (writer/producer/influencer) is the New York Times best-selling author
Babyface
J Boog
Renaissance woman - noun - a woman who has acquired profound knowledge or proficiency in more than one field.
About The Author And Podcast Host
Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group and Native Angelino Real Estate, offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license (#02052698) and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss.
I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
Our guest today is Dr. Shamim Shakibai, Co-Founder and CEO of MyPreOp and Founder of Priventa Health medical missions.
Episode Notes
00:20 - Introduction
05:30 - Dr. House and the Hospitalist
12:15 - Dragon software and AI
21:45 - MyPreOp
33:20 - Medical Missions
41:30 - Priventa Health
49:15 - Thoughts on the U.S.
51:20 - Solutions
53:30 - What to do to Improve Your Health
What Is MyPreOp?
Prior to COVID-19, telemedicine was not a reimbursable expense - under most circumstances.
During the pandemic, CMS expanded reimbursement to include virtual care sessions just as for in-person medical visits.
A business model of no brick-and-mortar office, streamlined and standardized test protocols, traveling nurses and technicians, and access to the physician via video-based appointment.
At MyPreOp, weâve set out to make the preoperative medical evaluation process simpler, safer, and more convenient. Thanks to telemedicine and virtual medical care, endless time spent in waiting rooms is a thing of the past.
We incorporate all of the latest evidence-based guidelines in ensuring your preoperative evaluation is as thorough and comprehensive as possible.
We take care of the entire process from A to Z, from arranging home- based testing to delivering your results to your surgeon/proceduralist offices seamlessly.
What is Priventa Health?
A 501c3 non-profit organization dedicated to increasing primary care access and preventive health care across Central and South America.
Piggybacking on the construction of a brand new free school for the people of Colon, El Salvador, we will be treating patients with limited access to care in a multitude of specialties.
Gynecology, family practice, internal medicine, and pediatrics will all be represented. Medications will be distributed and some testing will be done free of charge.
These healthcare professionals are donating their precious time, energy and focus to this effort. In addition, we will also be traveling to a mountainous area of El Salvador with difficult road access near the border of Honduras.
Once medical issues are identified, we will develop targeted health education talks to the community using the school as a platform in order to further the goal of prevention of numerous medical illnesses to the benefit of the community.
The progress will be tracked carefully, and if successful, will serve as a model for disease prevention that can be distributed throughout the rest of Central and South America.
Mentioned on the Podcast
About The Author And Podcast Host
Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group and Native Angelino Real Estate, offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license (#02052698) and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss.
I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
Consider the impact of mobilizing a love for music, Big Data, and community engagement to increase voter registration and turnout.
Meet Emily White, a Founder of Collective Entertainment and the #iVoted Concerts and Festivals:
A passionate advocate on behalf of democracy, committed to increasing new voter registration and civic engagement.
iVoted is a non-partisan 501(c)3 non-profit founded by entrepreneur Emily White, Mike Luba, and Pat Sansone of Wilco / The Autumn Defense.
iVoted increases voter turnout by producing record-breaking events & activating entertainment venues to let fans in who show a selfie from outside their polling place or at home with a blank & unmarked ballot.
Cracking The Code - From Music Venue to Voting Booth
She hascracked the code - demographics and micro-targeting of music fans which pairs nicely with micro-targeting of voters and political engagement efforts.
Emily is a Visiting Fellow at Johns Hopkins and a planning committee member of the 2024 Elijah E. Cummings Democracy & Freedom Festival.
The Musicians Roadmap
In 2020, the first edition of How to Build A Sustainable Music Career and Collect All Revenue Streams was published in conjunction with a podcast.
The methods and techniques described have received widespread acclaim.
Episode Notes
00:30 - Introduction
02:25 - Who is Emily White?
05:15 - Grandma and Grandpa White - Swimming and Special Olympics
07:20 - History of #iVoted
16:30 - Living Above the Politics - Elijah E. Cummings Democracy and Freedom Festival
23:25 - How To Build A Sustainable Music Career
26:20 - Mining Revenue from Big Data
29:30 - Prince - Musical Genius and Entrepreneur
33:35 - Your Website, Pre-Orders and Bundles
38:05 - A Billion Streams
39:50 - The Living Wage for Musicians Act
48:40 - Know Your Numbers and Your Art
53:05 - Top Trending Artists - Not Who You Think
59:00 - Blockchain, AI, IP, and Smart Contracts
1:01:05 - The Cellist with 1 million followers
Mentioned in the Episode
We discuss streaming revenue and the range of payment per stream.
As an example, Taylor Swift was mentioned and the proper estimate of 2023 revenue is $100mm on 26.1 billion streams. Thatâs a very big number and a minor correction to comments made during our discussion.
Websites
beatBread - âOwn your music, fund your career.â
bandcamp - âan online record store and music communityâ
Podcasts
Sports Management
Olympic medalists Anthony Ervin and Jay Litherland
Music
Zoe Keating, The Dresden Dolls, Amanda Palmer, Noel Gallagher, Kinto Soul, Certified Trapper
Venue
No Studios , interior design by Everick Brown
Photo of Emily White - Credit: Adrian Buckmaster
About The Podcast Host
Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group and Native Angelino Real Estate, offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license (#02052698) and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss.
I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
Let's Talk Diabetes and Prevention
38 million Americans have diabetes (about 1 in 10).
Approximately 98 million American adults -- that's 1 in 3, have prediabetes.
More than 80% don't know they have it.
The CDC reports that 18% of adolescents have prediabetes, and it's on the rise.
Episode Notes
00:15 - Who is Lara Al Dandachi?
01:12 - Increase in Obesity and Diabetes
03:40 - Type 1 vs Type 2
05:30 - Body Mass Index (BMI)
07:10 - GLP-1 Antagonists - Ozempic, Wegovy
11:38 - Ozempic and Pregnancy
14:35 - IMPORTANT - Diabetes and Prediabetes
16:45 - What are Beta Cells?
22:35 - Food and Drink to Eliminate From Your Diet
24:15 - Ultra-Processed Foods
26:45 - Mediterranean Diet
28:05 - Putting Diabetes into Remission
What Is Prediabetes?
Prediabetes is a serious health condition. Blood sugar levels are higher than normal, but not yet high enough to be diagnosed as type 2 diabetes.
With prediabetes, action is the best medicine.
American Diabetes Association
What is Diabetes?
About 38 million Americans have diabetes (about 1 in 10), and approximately 90-95% have type 2 diabetes.
Type 2 diabetes most often develops in people over age 45, but more and more children, teens, and young adults are also developing it.
Preventing Type 2 Diabetes
If you have prediabetes, losing a small amount of weight if you're overweight and getting regular physical activity can lower your risk for developing type 2 diabetes.
A small amount of weight loss means around 5% to 7% of your body weight, just 10 to 14 pounds for a 200-pound person.
Regular physical activity means getting at least 150 minutes a week of brisk walking or a similar activity. That's just 30 minutes a day, five days a week.
Tests for Diabetes and Prediabetes
Your doctor will have you take one or more of the following blood tests to confirm the diagnosis:
A1C Test
The A1C test measures your average blood sugar level over the past 3 months. An A1C below 5.7% is normal, between 5.7 and 6.4% indicates you have prediabetes, and greater than 6.5% indicates you have diabetes.
Fasting Blood Sugar Test
This measures your blood sugar after an overnight fast (not eating). A fasting blood sugar level of 99 mg/dL or lower is normal, 100 to 125 mg/dL indicates you have prediabetes, and greater than 126 mg/dL indicates you have diabetes.
GLP-1 Antagonists - Ozempic, Wegovy, Byetta, Rybelsus
This class of drugs is commonly called glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists.
These drugs mimic the action of a hormone called glucagon-like peptide 1. When blood sugar levels start to rise after someone eats, these drugs stimulate the body to produce more insulin. The extra insulin helps lower blood sugar levels.
Lower blood sugar levels are helpful for controlling type 2 diabetes. But it's not clear how the GLP-1 drugs lead to weight loss. Doctors do know that GLP-1s appear to help curb hunger. These drugs also slow the movement of food from the stomach into the small intestine.As a result, you may feel full faster and longer, so you eat less.
Along with helping to control blood sugar and boost weight loss, GLP-1s and SGLT-2 inhibitors seem to have other major benefits. Research has found that some drugs in these groups may lower the risk of heart disease, such as heart failure, stroke and kidney disease. Source: The Mayo Clinic
Guest Biography - Lara Al-Dandachi
Lara Al-Dandachi is the Nutrition Director of the PRO (Program to Reduce Obesity) within the Division of Endocrinology at David Geffen School of Medicine and UCLA Health.
Lara is a Registered Dietitian Nutritionist (RDN), Certified Diabetes Educator, and Obesity specialist who cares for patients in UCLA Health's Gonda Diabetes Center.
She is one of very few Registered Dietitians in the nation who are triple board certified in diabetes care specialty CDCES, advanced diabetes management BC-ADM, and obesity and weight management subspecialty (CSOWM).
Medical Board Certifications
American Association of Diabetes Educators, 2016
National Certification Board for Diabetes Educators, 2015
Blackburn, Obesity Medicine, Harvard Medical School
Degrees
MPH, Loma Linda School of Allied Health, 2003
BS in Nutrition & Dietetic, American University of Beirut
About The Podcast Host
Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group and Native Angelino Real Estate, offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license (#02052698) and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss.
I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
Annie Logue joins the Native Angelino Podcast with Tom Levine
Listen now | Annie Logue From Wall Street to Author of Day Trading For Dummies | Stories of Henry Blodgetâs fall, Liar's Poker, and tips for freelance writers.
Stories and Advice for Aspiring Freelancers
Ann Logue (rhymes with vogue) started her career as a Wall Street financial analyst covering the healthcare sector. She followed a traditional path - undergrad studied economics, earned an MBA in finance, and joined an investment bank. Then, an awakening and a career change.
She is now a full-time freelance writer of six books and hundreds of articles.
She regularly shares her witty thoughts on The Whatever Years (Substack).
We have known each other for decades and reminisce on the âold days,â including stories of WIRED Magazine, Henry Blodgetâs fall from grace and reemergence at Business Insider, and the early days of the internet (Netcom, Netscape, Drugstore.com), and the dot-com bubble.
Her list of âmust haveâ books for every aspiring Wall Street trainee is in the notes below. Hint: Michael LewisâsLiarâs Poker is at the top.
What is her favorite bookstore? Unabridged Bookstore in Chicago, IL.
Table Of Contents
00:25 From Wall Street to Author of 6 books
7:30 Day Trading for Dummies
11:30 Visions of Becoming a WIRED staff writer
12:50 Her First Paid Clip - the New York Times
16:15 Liarâs Poker and Other Books to Have on Your Shelf
17:00 Salomon Brothers
20:30 Disruption - Publishing Industry, Real Estate, Wall St
26:30 Cost of Education
40:40 Advice on Starting A Freelance Writing Career
44:25 Writing Advice - Practical Tips
53:04 Henry Blodget
1:02:10 Annieâs Favorite Bookstore
1:03 My Netcom (NETC) Story
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
Joining the Native Angelino Podcast from Kyoto, Japan, Professor Linus Yamane speaks eloquently about the lessons the United States can learn from the Japanese economy.
Heavy government debt levels restrain the ability of policymakers to correct problems even in light of obvious trends.
An aging population, a declining population, increasing wealth disparity and education inequality pressure the social security system.
What policy prescriptions are available to ensure the proper functioning and availability of the system for future generations?
He correctly predicts (1:08 min) the interest rate hike by the Japanâs central bank. The first rise in 17 years and a major policy shift.
The social security system is analyzed at the 17:35 mark.
Update Bloomberg, Weekend Reading, March 23, 2024
It was a big week for central banks, replete with surprises, told-you-soâs and new projections about where monetary policy is headed the world over. The Swiss National Bank, citing progress on inflation, became the first among global peers to cut interest ratesâŚ
âŚthe Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate regime, the worldâs last. The radical policymaking tool had been adopted to encourage bank lending, spur demand and stem disinflation.
In the US, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% as policymakers maintained their projections for three rate cuts this year if inflation continues its retreat. But after a couple of bumps on the path back to 2%, thereâs a chance the Fed could drop one of those cuts.
Bio: Professor Yamane is a Professor of Economics at Pitzer College in Claremont, California. He joined the Pitzer faculty in 1988, and is currently on sabbatical (2023-2024).
His research interests include the Japanese Economy, Labor Economics, Econometrics and Macroeconomics. He attended Yale University (MA, MPhil, PhD)and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (BS).
Additional Episodes
The Proposed Sitzer-Burnett Settlement
Is Compass just Redfin on Steroids?
The Race Between Education and Technology
About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine
Tom Levine is an LA native and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics.
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, he founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors.
âWe solve complex problems. Have a difficult strategic issue, or a real estate sale that requires fresh ideas? Please schedule a a consultationâ.
Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential, commercial and investment related transactions. Tom Levine is real estate consultant, broker and certified Short Sale and Forclosure specialist under the National Association of Realtors. (CADRE #2052698)
The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group.
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon."
Well, if you get a really early start, it's true.
Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
Almost a year ago, New York Community Bank (NYSE: NYCB) acquired Signature Bank's assets as a fresh banking crisis had emerged almost overnight.
The fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank wreaked havoc on financial markets and raised fears of a 2008 scenario.
Over the past week, those fears have again come to life. NYCB issued a dismal earnings report, followed by a set of questionable disclosures. The stock tumbled, and commercial real estate values are again in question.
With more write-offs and loan losses surely to come, why are many of the S&P Real Estate Sector fund components showing signs of life and stock price momentum? We pose this question to our guest, Katie Stockton, of Fairlead Funds.
Fairlead recently added The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) to their portfolio based on proprietary research utilizing technical analysis.
Mortgage rates, which were in the 2-3% range during Covid, have recently retreated from the eight percent level and are bouncing between 6.5 and 7%.
The stock market has reached new highs, unemployment is low, and job creation is strong. What comes next?
What would John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Funds, comment if he were alive today? Would he continue to advocate for long-term investing in low-cost index-related funds? Yes.
What does our guest, Katie Stockton, a Chartered Market Technician, have to say about current market conditions? Let's find out.
Technical analysis is a methodologyusing charts and trendsfor forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Additionally, momentum and relative strength.1
Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities and earnings); health; and competitors and markets.2
Guest
Katie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. Most recently, she served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners. She also worked for technical strategy teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview.
CNBC Fast Money, January 24, 2024
With help from the Fairlead Strategies team, Katie provides research and consulting services to institutions and individuals, and she is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK). Katie received her Chartered Market Technician (CMTÂŽ) designation in 2001, and later served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2012 to 2016. For several years, she has been honored by The Technical Analyst, a U.K. based publication, including an award in 2022 for Best Cryptocurrency Research.
Katie graduated with honors from the University of Richmond with a BSBA, and she now serves on the business schoolâs Executive Advisory Council. She is a member of the Endowment Investment Committee for her church. Katie frequently shares her views on CNBC and other financial news networks.
Jack Bogle
CNBC, Cramer, Obit, Jack Bogle was despised and he loved it
Jack Bogle Shares the Investment Lessons of a Lifetime
John Bogle wikipedia
John Bogle remarks to CFA Institute, May 23, 2017
John Bogle advice
About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics.
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors.
Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential, commercial and investment related transactions. Additionally, he is a broker and certified Short Sale and Forclosure specialist under the National Association of Realtors. (CADRE #2052698)
The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, 1929 and Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.
Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
Neither the author, nor Native Angelino/1929, is a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker / dealer. All investment/ financial opinions expressed here are from the personal research, experience, and opinions of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur. Do your Own Research please. Our content is for informational purposes only.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live
In this episode, we review the state of the U.S stock market from the perspective of charts and trends ââ technical analysis.
Our guest, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies, is one of the most talented and respected technical analysts working in financial markets.
She will mention the term âFibonacci retracement,â which is a tool derived from an Italian mathematicianâs work in 1202 and first discovered by Indian scholars in 200 BC.
The pattern can be found many places in nature, such as in the spiral of a pine cone, the arrangement of seeds in a sunflower, the branching of a tree, the shape of a seashell, and even in a DNA molecule.
With Katie as portfolio manager, Fairlead has recently launched a âTactical Sector ETFâ under the symbol TACK. Fairlead Strategies employs a systematic approach to technical analysis focused on the identification of important trends and support & resistance levels. Mathematically based tools facilitate tactical market timing and positioning.
Technical analysis is a methodologyusing charts and trendsfor forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Additionally, momentum and relative strength.
Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities and earnings); health; and competitors and markets.
Katie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. Most recently, she served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners. She also worked for technical strategy teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview.
With help from the Fairlead Strategies team, Katie provides research and consulting services to institutions and individuals, and she is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK). Katie received her Chartered Market Technician (CMTÂŽ) designation in 2001, and later served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2012 to 2016. For several years, she has been honored by The Technical Analyst, a U.K. based publication, including an award in 2022 for Best Cryptocurrency Research.
Katie graduated with honors from the University of Richmond with a BSBA, and she now serves on the business schoolâs Executive Advisory Council. She is a member of the Endowment Investment Committee for her church. Katie frequently shares her views on CNBC and other financial news networks.
About The Author And Podcast Host
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014.
The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors.
Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Podcast
The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.
Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
This is a public episode. If youâd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe
Cathy Wood is a warrior. Perhaps with the wrong battle plan.
She is a general - intelligent, seasoned, and committed to the cause.
Yet, a war of attrition only works if the army (in this case, her investors) have the staying power for prolonged battles with an unknown endpoint.
She catches falling knifes, averages down, and counts on her investors having unlimited patience and staying power.
To catch a falling knife is a phrase used to describe buying a stock that is falling dramatically in hopes of picking the bottom.
It is a risky investment strategy, often akin to gambling. The danger in trying to catch a falling knife is that the stock will continue to drop.
The phrase is a metaphor - literally, you may get cut and bloodied trying to catch a falling knife.
If one buys a share of stock at $100 and it falls by 50% to $50, it must go up by 100% to reach the breakeven point. Think through that.
The Ark Invest Management flagship fund, Ark Innovation ETF (symbol: ARKK), is down 51% year to date (YTD) at $47.13 per share.
For comparison purposes, the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 22% YTD.
Over the trailing 5 year period the NASDAQ is up 100% and ARKK is up 82%.
For her strategy to be successful she must be able to hang on through the lows, purchase additional shares on the way down, and have greater inflows of funds than outflows over the time horizon.
Averaging down is an investment strategy, which in the extreme is known as âcatching a falling knifeâ, that involves a stock owner purchasing additional shares of a previously initiated investment after the price has dropped.
Assuming the stock turns around, this ensures a lower breakeven point for the stock position and higher gains in dollar terms (compared to the gains if the position was not averaged down).1
To reiterate the key elements to a successful strategy of averaging down:
The investor has the funds for additional purchases.
The stock eventually turns around and moves higher.
The investment horizon is long enough to wait for the turnaround.
Currently, roughly 50% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 50% from their highs. Many stocks in the NASDAQ and smaller capitalization indices are down far more.
It is not uncommon for a bottom to occur when 70% of all stocks are down 50% or more. We are not there yet.
From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has retested the +/- 4160 level numerous times. Currently, 4132 and facing the headwinds of inflation, rising interest rates, and war in Europe.
Have we seen the bottom, such that the Ark Invest (Cathy Wood) strategy will prove successful? Bear market rallies will occur, but I suspect we have not yet seen the bottom.
Itâs possible to win the war, but be prepared for battle weariness and uncertainty.
Cathie Wood buys stocks like someone who just started yesterday, says Jim Cramer
Cramers comments were aired on February 17, 2022 and are worth watching again. He is not shy of hyperbole nor controversy. Yet, this time he outlines clearly a professional money managers required skillset and where Cathy Wood falls short.
Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett describe the current market mania
âPeople who know nothing about stocks being advised by stockbrokers who know even lessâ, April 30, 2022.
Mohamed El-Erian updates thoughts on the interest rate environment - April 29, 2022
Today, yields on Treasury Bonds at the 5, 10 and 30 year maturity breached 3%. It is as much a psychological barrier as a practical one given that 30 year mortgage rates are above 5% already.
The probability of recession is increasing. The only real questions left are when will the economy slow significantly, how bad will it be, and for how long will it last.
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week and is widely expected to increase interest rates by 1/2% (50 basis points). My instinct puts the probability of a 50bps rise at 60%, 25bps at 20% or 75bps at 20%.
About The Author And Podcast Host
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014.
The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors.
Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Podcast
The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.
Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
This is a public episode. If youâd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe
Overcoming AdversityâŚ
âŚthe title of a podcast I recorded during the worst of Covid.
I am intrigued by certain individuals' drive and resilience as they rise to great heights, despite being challenged with immense hurdles.
In that podcast (listen here), I spoke with two athletes: Asante Cleveland, a former NFL tight-end who played with the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, and the San Diego Chargers, and with Lindsey Dare Shoop, an Olympic gold medalist in rowing, world champion, coach, speaker, and author.
Asante's career came to an early conclusion as a result of injury. I was impressed by his drive to achieve, his story of making it to the Patriots, and the subsequent inner strength he demonstrated post-injury.
If a young man in his mid-20âs could hold his head high after a career ending injury, I certainly could manage a career transition after age 50.
The Mind Of A Champion - A Family Affair
In this episode, I speak with Asante's parents (Javetta and Allen). I was interested in discussing the elements of nature versus nurture. To find out at what point they knew he had exceptional athletic talent. To ask, "Did they prepare and/or push him toward athletics, or did he naturally gravitate to sport and football?"
(Lindsey's story will be told in a forthcoming episode).
On the nature side of the equation, although both father and son wanted to play college basketball, they played college football, and each eventually made it to the National Football League (NFL).
Asanteâs mother let me know that NFL also stands for âNot For Longâ and that she was intent on doing whatever she could to prepare him for life after the league.
The senior Mr. Cleveland played for the Dallas Cowboys and roomed briefly with Tony Dorsett during the Tom Landry coaching era.
The son huddled with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and was coached by Bill Belichick.
In this episode, you will hear one family's story of pulling together to achieve goals, never forgetting that what is most important is to excel in school, remain humble, loyal to family, and always act with integrity and purpose.
About The Author And Podcast Host
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014.
The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors.
Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Podcast
The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.
Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
This is a public episode. If youâd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe
NOTE: There are 12 zeros in a trillion, 9 in a billion and 6 in a million. I incorrectly stated 18 per trillion in the recording. Apologies.
What Is A Yield Curve?
The Treasury yield curve is a graph that charts the interest rate on Treasury bonds, notes, and bills versus their maturity (time until they pay back principal).
Normally it slopes upward, from left to right. When you think about it, it makes sense. Bondholders demand a higher rate of interest to lend money (i.e., hold bonds) for a longer period of time. What Is An Inverted Yield Curve?
What Is An Inverted Yield Curve?
When the curve is "inverted," it is downward sloping from left to right, which means you will be paid less to hold bonds for a longer time. This scenario makes no sense for the individual investor. Why would you invest to earn less interest on a 30-year bond than on a 2-year bond? In most cases, you wouldn't.
Why Does An Inversion Matter?
An inverted, 3month to 10year USTreasury yield curve has had strong predictive power that a recession is coming. Typically, the recession is roughly 2 years out.
A normal, upward-sloping curve suggests that the economic outlook is positive. Better times are anticipated, and as one would expect, it costs more to borrow money for the long term, and one receives a higher rate of interest to invest long term.
An inverted, downward-sloping curve suggests that the outlook is negative or the economy is slowing.
Is This Time Different?
In September of 2018, I wrote a post entitled "Is This Time Different?" which asked, "Does A Flattening Yield Curve Predict A Recession?"
Rick Santelli of CNBC interviewed Arturo Estrella of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Estrella stated that an inverted yield curve between 3 month Treasury Bills and 10 Year Treasury Bonds had predicted all 7 U.S. recessions that have occurred since 1968.
Currently, the 3mos/10yr remains positively sloped; the 2yr/10yr and 5yr/10yr are negatively sloped or inverted and the curve all the way from 10 years to 30 years is almost flat.
The 2yr/10yr inversion has been less accurate at predicting a recession than the 3mos/10yr spread.
What Are The Bond Gurus Saying?
Mohamed El-Erian - Allianz
Stagflation is the baseline.
This is the time to take some chips off the table.
Jeff Gundlach - DoubleLine - âThe New Bond Kingâ
Right on cue, the "It Doesn't Matter This Time" white papers are coming out, the DoubleLine Capital CEO tweeted. "Don't believe them."
Bill Gross - PIMCO retired - âThe Bond Kingâ
Bonds are definitely something to avoid.
They (the Fed) are way behind the curve.
If the ten year goes to 3, 3 1/2, or 4%, it will break the economy.
50-100bps more from the Fed and we will see a recession.
Inflation will be 4-5%.
Bill Gross referring to Jeff Gudlach:
To be a bond king, you have to have a kingdom. PIMCO was $1-2 trillion, Gundlach has $134 billion and is not growing.
Central banks and governments are the new bond kings and queens. The term is somewhat passe.
Bill Gross referring to Cathy Wood
(Cathy Wood Is Taking Fire):
She doesnât have an excellent sense of value and when to buy and what to pay. She seems to think that down the road her theory will be validated.
For a more technical discussion of the yield curve inversion please watch the following video:
NOTE: There are 12 zeros in a trillion, 9 in a billion and 6 in a million. I incorrectly stated 18 per trillion in the recording. Apologies.
The Author And Podcast Host, Tom Levine
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014.
The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors.
Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Podcast
The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.
Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
This is a public episode. If youâd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe
The Race Between Technology And Education
A major impetus for my writing and recording is my interest in personal reinvention. The overcoming of adversity. How does one remain relevant in the job market after age - pick one - 40-45-50?
Traditionally, in post-WW2 America, a citizen enters the workforce at 18-25 years of age, with no degree, or with a two-year, four year or graduate degree, and accumulates savings with the anticipation of retirement at age 65.
For roughly seven decades, until the 2000s, this was the âAmerican Dream.â
Then Something Changed
I speak with Professor Linus Yamane on the accompanying podcast about employment history and trends. The Professor is an expert in the Japanese and American history of economics from a macro or economy-wide perspective.
Professor Yamane highlights the 2008 book by Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, The Race Between Education and Technology. He refers to the book as âthe most significant work on the topic of the last 50 years.â
An update to book titled, The Race Between Education and Technology Revisited, can be found here.
The professor states that before approximately the year 2000, the path was clear. Get a college degree, and you will do better than your parents did economically and better than your non-college-educated fellow citizens.
Somewhere around this time, the dynamic changed. As measured by income, the battle for success became a push and pull among those with college degrees. Liberal arts degrees have been devalued, and STEM degrees gained enormously in value.
The devaluation led to a further stratification in income levels and further widened the income disparity between the haves and have nots.
For those âolder workersâ that are seeking work, they may well find that their skill set and degree is no longer, or not as relevant as it was in decades past. Further, the impact of ageism, sexism, and racism may play a coincident role as well.
The Role of Education And Technology
The United States stopped producing engineers and scientists at the rate necessary to keep up with technology and to keep pace with our international competitors.
To paraphrase Professor Yamane, the U.S. is educating STEM students at a rate of 20% of the total versus the new world leaders at 30%.
1929 - Newsletter and Podcast by Tom Levine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The logical solution is to encourage students to go into science and technology tracks (STEM) at a very early age.
Further, he believes that resources allocated to early childhood education are the best use of dollars aimed at rectifying the structural under-production of math and science degree graduates.
The race between education and technology is a marathon. Education, re-education, training and re-training are necessary for a nation, our nation, to continue to compete and lead as an economic power.
In future writings and podcasts, I will further explore the topic of employment for older demographics from both a macro and micro standpoint. We will examine the sociological, economic and psychological impact of long-term unemployment and the impact on the individual.
One very good book that takes a global market approach is: The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio. We will discuss this book in an upcoming podcast.
Finally, a quote from Professor Yamane:
Of course, this does not mean that everyone should major in STEM.
First and foremost, money is not everything. If you love what you do, you never have to work a day in your life.
There is much to be said about doing something you find interesting and meaningful while interacting with people you enjoy and respect.
You should try to maximize your happiness, not your income.
They are not the same thing. And research shows that additional income above $100K in California does not increase average levels of happiness.
The Author And Podcast Host, Tom Levine
Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014.
The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services.
Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors.
Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors.
Podcast
The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.
Native Angelino description found on iTunes:
âFrom a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.
Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.
L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.
Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.
This is a public episode. If youâd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe
Doug Shapiro spent a decade as an Institutional Investor ranked Wall Street analyst. He successfully transitioned to the C-Suite of a corporate media giant, Turner Broadcasting, as their Chief Strategy Officer. After 15 years at the company, and the AT&T buyout, he moved on to seek new challenges.
In July of this year he authored an essay for Medium, titled, The Future of Media: Fewer, Bigger Hits, An Even Longer Tail, No Middle and Lower Returns. He postulates that there are two opposing market forces leading to the crowding out of mid-tier firms and offerings. At one end of the spectrum are big budget projects (think Disney and the recent release of Hamilton, or Pirates of the Caribbean) and at the other end is an almost endless supply of user generated content (think YouTube and Instagram Live). The wide availability of high quality, reasonably priced production equipment and distribution costs approaching zero combined with changing consumer perception of quality has forced the industry to these two extremes.
In this episode I speak with Doug about content creation and intellectual property in an era of rapidly falling distribution costs. What the future holds for media is difficult to predict, but given his 25 years experience studying the industry I postulate that his vision is likely quite clear.
The Future of Media by Doug Shapiro, Medium, July 5, 2020
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Presented by Native Angelino Podcast in association with Day And Night Live, and Day And Night Media.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino
Contact Us
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Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message
This is a public episode. If youâd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe
In the words of Asante Cleveland, a former NFL tight-end, podcast host and advisor to start-ups, "as a player post a big win or a stunning loss you must lock back in every week because you've got another task ahead".
Lindsay Dare Shoop, Olympic gold-medalist, coach, author and speaker, shares a story of overcoming adversity to become an elite athlete from a starting point of being mentally and physically out of shape such that "a speed walker legged past her during the first 5k I completed".
What are the similarities between an NFL career, competing for Olympic Gold, achieving success in business and finding balance in life? We explore this topic from many angles, but I will share a hint. Responding efficiently to adverse, out of the blue events is a skill based on preparation, luck, and the ability to move your mind from focusing on the negative to creating a positive course.
Guest information:
The White Tiger Podcast with Asante Cleveland and Craig Casaletto
Better Great Than Never, Believing It's Possible is where Champions Begin by Lindsay Dare Shoop, Olympian, Coach, Author and Speaker
____________________________________________
Presented by Native Angelino Podcast in association with Day And Night Live, and Day And Night Media.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino
Contact Us
_____________
Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message
This is a public episode. If youâd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe
Designers and the economy. What's the view from the inside?
The design consultant has a unique perspective that allows her (him) to see the world through the eyes of the client (homeowner, small business owner, corporate entity), as well as, through the lens of manufacturers, craftsmen, cargo shippers, entrepreneurs - essentially the entire supply chain. Add to this the face-to-face interaction with families at home and business owners at their place of work, and a perspective is forged that goes far beyond the simple study of supply, demand, consumer preference and popular culture.
Human interaction, something we are all reevaluating in the era of Covid-19, is central to how Rick and Breegan approach lifestyle, home furnishings, design and architecture. We discuss technology, work-from-home, home schooling and the powerful impact the decor, furnishings, sight, and sound have on mood and productivity.
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Breegan Jane of breeganjane. Please follow her on Instagram.
Everick (Rick) Brown of Everick Brown Design please follow him on Instagram.
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Tom Levine is a Native Angelino
info@nativeangelino.com
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Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message
I Hope I'm Wrong
The U.S. stock market and the economy are diverging. 35 million Americans are unemployed and underemployed - approximately 20 percent of the workforce is without full-time employment.
Covid-19 cases topped 1.3 million and more than 70,000 Americans have died. States are heading toward Phase 1 or Phase 2 reopening of local economies.
The Fed and Treasury programs are in place. Securities markets have been lubricated and lending facilities supported.
The CARES Act and associated programs (PPP, EIDL, PUA) are being implemented. Unemployment Insurance, both old style and new, is ramping up. Even the $1200 checks are arriving in bank accounts and mailboxes.
Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, even Larry Fink, have sounded the alarm. Each express concern for different reasons, but all highlight general uncertainty, structural issues, and the greatest unknown - U.S consumer behavior. Behavioral economics for short.
The PPP provides 8 weeks of cushion to small business, but what happens in week 9?
What long term damage has been inflicted?
Will the U.S. consumer chose to save rather than spend, as citizens did for 30 years post the Great Depression?
I fear tough times ahead. I worry the end of the 11 year expansion will be far more painful than anticipated by most. I hope I am wrong.
We are joined by Kaushik Saha, SVP of Quantitative Research at Hercules Investments.
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covid19 #behavioraleconomics #caresact #nativeangelino
Special thanks for their sage words to: Mel Brooks and Professor Richard Portes.
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Covid, Climate Change, a gecko, a fox, and an Oracle.
The pandemic of 2020 brought a wake-up call. We are not immune from virus, the Blue Planet benefits from a carbon light industry, and global supply chains leave us vulnerable to disruption and economic warfare.
In 1987, Gordon Gekko (Michael Douglas) walked along the shore at sunrise with a cell phone the size of a box of Kleenex in his left hand. With the swagger of a Wall Street Master of the Universe, he says to Budd Foxx (Charlie Sheen), "Money never sleeps"....."this is your wake-up call."
In 1989 Michael Lewis released "Liar's Poker". The story of a young trainee's adventures through the caverns of World Trade Center trading desks, while dodging 5 gallon vats of guacamole and the perils of a 'greed is good' ethos.
Little did Mr. Lewis know that the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, who saved Salomon Brothers on two occasions, would hold the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting on the World Wide Web, 30 years hence. Or that without using the words, Buffett would point to the soft science of behavioral economics as a primary reason for stepping aside from airline investments and the equity markets.
It just so happens that Mr. Lewis also wrote a book on the soft science, The Undoing Project(2016), and on baseball (Moneyball), football (The Blind Side) and the Crash of 2008 (The Big Short).
Will the post-coronavirus American public, and the global consumer, become savers rather than spenders?
Will the aerial photos of China, the U.S., and the Amazon convince industry, and tree hugger alike, that it is economically wise to move to a carbon light society?
Tune in to Episode 5, The Earth at Peace, but Never on Mute, to hear my thoughts and those of a high school student wise beyond her years.
Wall Street (1987), Money Never Sleeps Scene clip
Tree People
caresact #california #behavioraleconomics #liarspoker #buffett
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Ever considered just how much a trillion dollars really is?
In Episode 4, Trillions and Billions and Cares, we find out just how many zeros are attached to the latest round of Congressional appropriations.
The CARES Act Round Dos, Â goes into effect Monday, April 27, 2020. The Small Business Administration (SBA) is ready to open the lending window at 10:30am ET.Â
Will they have more success this time around? We will know soon enough.
We explore and ponder the immediate and longer term impact of "helicopter money", ZOOM media, and potential changes to consumer behavior. Â
We ask, "Will you go back to your WEWORK shared office space?" Â How about going to a movie, a concert or a crowded bar?Â
Riddle me these answers and perhaps Dorothy will join you for a rendition of "Trillions and Billions and CARES.
How do you think you would view the world if your job was in jeopardy, your finances were upended, you were scared for your health and safety, were worried about loved ones, and were within days of losing the roof over your head? Well, you would be simpatico with millions of Americans living in the time of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
Now imagine that you are in your early twenties and about to embark on a life you have eagerly anticipated and worked toward through college and graduate school. This is the perspective we will embrace as we hear from four young adults. With only a handful of days warning, they were instructed to vacate dormitories, warned not to return to campus, told to say goodbye to the final weeks of campus life and to kiss the graduation ceremony goodbye.
Would you remain optimistic and measured in your outlook?
Tune in to hear this group tell their tale while undergoing stay-at-home orders in California, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Rhode Island.
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Tom Levine is a Native Angelino
info@nativeangelino.com
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Following a day ripe with rumors of funding shortfalls, the Small Business Administration (SBA) confirmed via email that program changes and benefit reductions are a near certainty.Â
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Today is April 12, 2020 - Easter Sunday.
What a day to launch Episode 1 of The Native Angelino Podcast.
Los Angeles, the United States, and the world is faced with the first global pandemic of the 21st century.
Tom Levine speaks with two entrepreneurs about the challenges they currently face and asks, "has the CARES Act provided fast and direct economic assistance" as promised with the signing into law on March 27? Will the assistance be enough and what strategy will the business owners employ to get from Point Pandemic to Point B?
Each entrepreneur discusses the almost insurmountable obstacles of running a business in the time of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic. Can they afford to maintain payrolls and support their families?
Mark Kopman co-founded AVO Cafe, an All Vegan Organic CafĂŠ - described as pure, plant-based comfort food.
Dr. Jennifer Botelho has owned and has led the Chiropractic Center of Los Angeles for more than 20 years.
Tom Levine has examined The CARES Act in detail and will continue to follow the implementation of programs funded by the Act.
The Coronavirus Aid, Relef, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed by Congress with overwhelming, bipartisan support and signed into law on March 27th, 2020. A $2 trillion economic package which created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program, expanded the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program (EIDL). "The CARES Act provides fast and direct economic assistance for American workers, families, and small businesses, and preserve jobs for our American industries" as stated on the U.S. Treasuries website.
Tom Levine is a Native Angelino
info@nativeangelino.com_____________
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