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The Trump trade continues to fuel Dollar demand, all while the latest comments from the Fed Chair have only added to this demand. On Thursday, the Fed Chair said the resilient US economy was allowing for patience on future rate cuts.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/15novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Sights set on 2020 high * NZDUSD Testing major support * US SPX500 Consolidates off high * GOLD (spot) Higher low sought out

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone industrial production soft * GBPUSD Pound still contending with Trump trade * USDJPY Japan FinMin Kato warns against Yen weakness * AUDUSD China data helps to give Aussie needed boost * USDCAD Canadian Dollar at lowest since May 2020 * NZDUSD NZ manufacturing data disappoints * US SPX 500 Stocks propped CB policy, political outlook * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading What impact is the Digital Markets Act having?, J. Espinoza, Financial Times (November 14, 2024) * Why the Dollar Keeps Getting Stronger, J. Rennison, NY Times* (November 14, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0825 – 7 November high – Strong

• R1 1.0664 – 12 November high – Medium
• S1 1.0496 – 15 November/2024 low – Medium
• S2 1.0448 – 2023 low – Very Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewIt’s been a tough week for the Euro which has sunk to a fresh 2024 low on the back of worry around tariffs from the incoming US administration, political uncertainty in Germany, odds for a more aggressive ECB rate cut, and softer economic data. On Thursday, Eurozone industrial production was the latest data point in a series of let downs. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction orders, Canada manufacturing sales, and US retail sales, NY empire manufacturing, and industrial production.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2834 – 6 November low – Medium
• R1 1.2770 – 13 November high –Medium
• S1 1.2630– 14 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2613 – 27 June low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has been hit hard this week on the back of the pricing in of a Dollar bullish Trump administration, news of UK business insolvencies rising 64% from a year ago, and some concerning employment data. The fact that the current UK government is not on great terms with President-elect Trump is not helping matters. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction orders, Canada manufacturing sales, and US retail sales, NY empire manufacturing, and industrial production.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 157.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 156.75 – 15 November high – Medium
• S1 154.34 – 13 November low – Medium
• S2 152.14 – 8 November low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe latest solid growth data out of Japan and another round of currency jawboning have done little to slow the recent pace of Yen declines, mostly on the back of the market’s pricing in of the US Dollar bullish Trump trade. Earlier, Japan FinMin Kato described recent moves in the yen as one-sided and rapid. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction orders, Canada manufacturing sales, and US retail sales, NY empire manufacturing, and industrial production.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6688 – 7 November high – Strong
• R2 0.6547 – 13 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6440 –14 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe ailing Australian Dollar is trying to recover on Friday, looking for some positive momentum from a round of China data that was mostly better than expected. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction orders, Canada manufacturing sales, and US retail sales, NY empire manufacturing, and industrial production.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4500-1.5000 area, exposing a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4100 – Figure – Strong
• R1 1.4072 – 15 November/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3930 – 13 November low – Medium
• S2 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has sunk to a fresh yearly low against the Buck. The Trump trade is back in full swing, commodities have come under intense pressure and risk sentiment has been turning down. All of this is factoring into the renewed bout of Canadian Dollar weakness, with major stops taken out on Thursday as the Canadian Dollar sunk to its lowest level since the pandemic in May 2020. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction orders, Canada manufacturing sales, and US retail sales, NY empire manufacturing, and industrial production.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6038 – 7 November high – Strong
• R1 0.5948 – 13 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5839 – 14 November/2024 low – Medium
• S2 0.5800 – Figure – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewWe’ve just seen another soft round of data out of New Zealand, this time from manufacturing PMI reads which further strengthen the case for another 50 basis point cut from the RBNZ later this month. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction orders, Canada manufacturing sales, and US retail sales, NY empire manufacturing, and industrial production.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5891 – 17 October high – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2537 – 14 November low – Medium
• S2 2500 – Round Number – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

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Though the pace of Dollar momentum has slowed, for the moment, the Buck remains in firm control with the Dollar Index extending its run to the highest level since November 1st, 2023. Looking ahead, we get US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, the ECB Minutes, ECB speak, and a Fed Powell speech.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/14novlmaxnext24.mp3

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There were no surprises from Wednesday’s US inflation data and the market was back to focusing in on the Trump trade and all of the Dollar bullish implications from expectations around the incoming administration’s policies on trade and tax.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/14novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Possible bottom formation * US SPX500 Consolidates off high * GOLD (spot) Higher low sought out

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Uptick in French unemployment * GBPUSD UK job market shows signs of softening * USDJPY BOJ rate hike odds increasing in Japan * AUDUSD Aussie employment softer than forecast * USDCAD Oil weakness no help to ailing Loonie * NZDUSD New Zealand food price growth moderating * US SPX 500 Stocks propped CB policy, political outlook * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading What impact is the Digital Markets Act having?, J. Espinoza, Financial Times (November 14, 2024) * How to survive a trade war with the United States, S. Lowe, FT Alphaville* (November 11, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0825 – 7 November high – Strong

• R1 1.0728 – 11 November high – Medium
• S1 1.0593 – 14 November/2024 low – Medium
• S2 1.0500 – Psychological – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro is struggling with worry around tariffs from the incoming US administration and political uncertainty out of Germany. Meanwhile the uptick in French unemployment data hasn’t helped matters and odds for a bigger 50-basis point ECB rate cut are moving up. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from Eurozone employment, GDP, and industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, the ECB Minutes, ECB speak, and a Fed Powell speech.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• R1 1.2926 – 11 November high –Medium
• S1 1.2719– 12 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2665 – 8 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has been hit hard this week on the back of the pricing in of a Dollar bullish Trump administration, news of UK business insolvencies rising 64% from a year ago, and this latest higher than expected UK unemployment rate. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from Eurozone employment, GDP, and industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, the ECB Minutes, ECB speak, and a Fed Powell speech.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 156.00 – 24 July high – Strong
• R1 155.24 – 14 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has slid to a 3 month low against the Buck despite rising expectations for the BOJ to raise rates. Absence of any jawboning out of Japan on this Thursday could also be factoring into the Yen offers, especially at a time when the Trump trade has been running strong. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from Eurozone employment, GDP, and industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, the ECB Minutes, ECB speak, and a Fed Powell speech.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6688 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie employment data was out earlier today and leaned to the softer side which has contributed to the downside pressure we’re seeing today. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from Eurozone employment, GDP, and industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, the ECB Minutes, ECB speak, and a Fed Powell speech.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3968 – 12 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has sunk to a fresh yearly low against the Buck. The Trump trade is back in full swing, commodities have come under intense pressure and risk sentiment has been turning down. All of this is factoring into the renewed bout of Canadian Dollar weakness. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from Eurozone employment, GDP, and industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, the ECB Minutes, ECB speak, and a Fed Powell speech.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6038 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5910 – 12 November low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe latest StatsNZ SPI for October shows a fairly chunky moderation in the pace of food price growth, with other key components fairly mixed. All in all, the report suggests inflation is well past its peak, which strengthens the case for another 50 basis point cut from the RBNZ later this month. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from Eurozone employment, GDP, and industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, the ECB Minutes, ECB speak, and a Fed Powell speech.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5891 – 17 October high – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2590 – 12 November low – Medium
• S2 2547 – 18 September low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

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We haven’t seen much movement in financial markets today and a lot of that could have something to do with the market wanting to take a breather following recent moves or perhaps the market wanting to position cautiously ahead of today’s US inflation data.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/13noclmaxnext24.mp3

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The market has been very sensitive to the economic outlook with a new US administration and this continues to drive broad based Dollar demand. Softer data and political uncertainty in Germany have also factored into price action.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/13novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Possible bottom formation * US SPX500 Consolidates off high * GOLD (spot) Higher low sought out

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro hits yearly low ahead of US CPI * GBPUSD UK job market shows signs of softening * USDJPY Japan producer prices above forecast * AUDUSD Aussie wage prices come in softer * USDCAD Canada building permits shrugged off * NZDUSD Kiwi falls victim to Trump trade * US SPX 500 Stocks propped CB policy, political outlook * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Stocks Assumed a Trump Boom, Bonds Opposite, J. Calhoun, Alhambra (November 11, 2024) * Time to Ready for Rising Yields, Strong $, C. Gisiger, The Market* (November 11, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0825 – 7 November high – Strong

• R1 1.0728 – 11 November high – Medium
• S1 1.0595 – 12 November/2024 low – Medium
• S2 1.0500 – Psychological – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro is struggling with worry around tariffs from the incoming US administration and political uncertainty out of Germany. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from US inflation data and Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• R1 1.2926 – 11 November high –Medium
• S1 1.2719– 12 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2665 – 8 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has been hit hard this week on the back of the pricing in of a Dollar bullish Trump administration, news of UK business insolvencies rising 64% from a year ago, and this latest higher than expected UK unemployment rate. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from US inflation data and Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 155.22 – 30 July high – Strong
• R1 154.95 – 13 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen hasn’t been able to ignore the wave of intense broad based US Dollar demand as the new US administration is priced in. At the same time, setbacks have been somewhat mitigated on Wednesday from the hotter Japan producer prices. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from US inflation data and Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6688 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewEarlier today, Aussie wage prices came in softer than expected, adding to the recent downside pressure on the currency amidst broad US Dollar demand ahead of the incoming US administration. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from US inflation data and Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3968 – 12 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe fact that we just saw a nice rise in Canada building permits hasn’t mattered, with the Canadian Dollar sinking to a fresh yearly low against the Buck. The Trump trade is back in full swing, commodities have come under intense pressure and risk sentiment has been turning down. All of this is factoring into the renewed bout of Canadian Dollar weakness. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from US inflation data and Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6038 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5910 – 12 November low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe speculation around tough US tariffs from the incoming administration has weighed on Asian equities and risk correlated FX. Key standouts on today’s calendar come from US inflation data and Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5891 – 17 October high – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2590 – 12 November low – Medium
• S2 2547 – 18 September low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

We’re looking at a very strong Dollar on the back of the Trump trade and political turmoil out of Europe. The Euro has sunk back towards the yearly low against the Buck, though dealers are reporting decent demand ahead of 1.0500.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/12novlmaxnext24.mp3

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The Trump trade is back in full swing as the market continues to consider the impact of US tariffs and US tax cuts from the incoming administration. Meanwhile, commodities have been sliding and risk sentiment has soured, setting up an ugly start to Tuesday trade.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/12novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Possible bottom formation * US SPX500 Fresh record high * GOLD (spot) Higher low sought out

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro area economic calendar heats up * GBPUSD UK business insolvencies rise 64% * USDJPY Japan machine tool orders digested * AUDUSD Fear of US tariffs from new admin a worry * USDCAD Oil weakness factors into Loonie sales * NZDUSD Kiwi softer on stumble in Asian equities * US SPX 500 Stocks propped CB policy, political outlook * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading 5 Stocks to Buy on a Trump Victory, T. Yeung, InvestorPlace (November 11, 2024) * A Rebound in Growth is Coming, T. Slok, Apollo Academy* (November 9, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0937 – 6 November high – Strong

• R1 1.0825 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 1.0629 – 11 November low – Medium
• S2 1.0601 – 16 April/2024 low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro is struggling with worry around tariffs from the incoming US administration and political uncertainty out of Germany. There should be even more action today with the economic calendar rather busy. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3103 – 15 October high – Medium
• R1 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• S1 1.2822– 12 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2799 – 15 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has come back under pressure on the Trump trade and on distress out of the UK after business insolvencies dominate headlines, rising 64% from a year ago. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 155.22 – 30 July high – Strong
• R1 154.72 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewPrice action has been mostly quiet on Tuesday as the Yen waits to take in Japan machine tool orders. If orders beat expectations we should see some more Yen demand as it will signal improving labor market conditions and private consumption. This will fuel the BOJ case for another rate hike sooner than later. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6688 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has been dragged lower on Tuesday despite the release of solid NAB business confidence and conditions data. It seems worry around US tariffs imposed by the incoming US administration is weighing on risk sentiment in Asia. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3959 – 1 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Trump trade is back in full swing, commodities have come under intense pressure and risk sentiment has been turning down. All of this is factoring into the renewed bout of Canadian Dollar weakness. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6038 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5912 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe speculation around tough US tariffs from the incoming administration has weighed on Asian equities and risk correlated FX. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US NFIB business optimism, Canada building permits, the German current account, US consumer inflation expectations, and some Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6033 – 11 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5891 – 17 October high – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2602 – 10 October low – Medium
• S2 2547 – 18 September low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

The Euro has been getting slammed of late and is once again standing out as a clear underperformer on this Monday. There are two drivers behind the weakness worth highlighting. As far as the remainder of the day goes, all will be quiet on the calendar front with the US bond market closed in observance of Veteran’s Day.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/11novlmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

The US Dollar was already looking good in the aftermath of the US election result and wasn’t exactly needing much help. But on Friday, the Buck got some more help from external forces including underwhelming China stimulus and a collapse in the German government.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/11novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Possible bottom formation * US SPX500 Fresh record high * GOLD (spot) Higher low sought out

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German government woes hit Euro hard * GBPUSD Dovish BOE Pill knock the Pound * USDJPY Yen gets boost from solid local data * AUDUSD Unimpressed with Chinese debt swap * USDCAD Canada unemployment rate holds steady * NZDUSD Kiwi suffers as high-beta FX stumbles * US SPX 500 Stocks propped CB policy, political outlook * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Why Warren Buffett Is Holding So Much Cash, C. Justin, The Brooklyn Investor(November 6, 2024) * How China Is Like the 19th Century U.S., B. Potter, Construction Physics* (November 1, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0937 – 6 November high – Strong

• R1 1.0825 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 1.0683 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro was right back under pressure to close out the previous week on the back of the collapse in the German government and on a pricing in of more troubles for the Euro in a Trump presidency. Looking ahead, there is no first-tier data on the calendar for the remainder of the day and the focus will be on bigger picture themes and macro flows.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3103 – 15 October high – Medium
• R1 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• S1 1.2834– 6 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2799 – 15 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound came under some pressure on Friday on dovish comments from BOE Pill who said there would be more room for rate cuts if disinflation continued. Odds for a December rate cut currently trade around 20-25%. Looking ahead, there is no first-tier data on the calendar for the remainder of the day and the focus will be on bigger picture themes and macro flows.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 155.22 – 30 July high – Strong
• R1 154.72 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen was up modestly in the final sessions of the week, getting a boost from solid economic data beats including the Japan leading index. Meanwhile, the big selloff in high-beta FX also injected some demand into the Yen as carry trades were squeezed out. Looking ahead, there is no first-tier data on the calendar for the remainder of the day and the focus will be on bigger picture themes and macro flows.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6688 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe metals market was unimpressed with the latest Chinese debt swap and the Australian Dollar came under pressure to close out the week, giving back all of Thursday’s gains. Looking ahead, there is no first-tier data on the calendar for the remainder of the day and the focus will be on bigger picture themes and macro flows.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3959 – 1 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar came under pressure on Friday but managed to outperform relative to its peers on local Canada jobs data which was a net positive. Full time jobs were solid and the unemployment rate held steady at 6.5% versus the 6.6% expected. Looking ahead, there is no first-tier data on the calendar for the remainder of the day and the focus will be on bigger picture themes and macro flows.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6038 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5912 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewFriday was a risk off session for high beta FX markets and the New Zealand Dollar suffered as a consequence. It also seems the market has been taking the stronger Dollar trade in a Trump presidency more seriously. Looking ahead, there is no first-tier data on the calendar for the remainder of the day and the focus will be on bigger picture themes and macro flows.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6100 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 6018 – 8 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5891 – 17 October high – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in the aftermath of the Trump election victory. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2643 – 7 November low – Medium
• S2 2602 – 10 October low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

There were no major surprises, at least from our side from Thursday’s central bank event risk. We warned the BOE could deliver a hawkish cut, and we expected the Fed to cut rates 25 basis points and leave the door open for another cut in December.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/8novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Possible bottom formation * US SPX500 Sights set on 6000 * GOLD (spot) Closing in on 3000

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Politics play in after Scholz fires FinMin * GBPUSD Pound rallies after hawkish cut from BOE * USDJPY FinMin Kato talks movement in FX markets * AUDUSD Aussie still getting boost from RBA outlook * USDCAD Canada employment report takes spotlight * NZDUSD Kiwi more focused on record stocks * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading How to retain your workforce, C. Justin, Financial Times (November 4, 2024) * The Struggling Housing Market Won’t Sink Stocks, Fisher Investments* (November 6, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0937 – 6 November high – Strong

• R1 1.0832 – 1 November low – Medium
• S1 1.0683 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewGermany delivered an awful industrial production number and German Chancellor Scholz dismissed his FinMin. This has weighed on the Euro a little into rallies, though the single currency has mostly been well bid into the end of the week on a wave of broad based Dollar weakness post US election and post Fed. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from ECB speak, BOE speak, Canada employment data, US Michigan confidence, and some Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3103 – 15 October high – Medium
• R1 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• S1 1.2834– 6 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2799 – 15 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewAs per our special report preview of the BOE decision, the Pound has rallied in the aftermath after the central bank came out with a hawkish cut. The BOE expressed concern about the inflationary impact of the latest budget. The next rate cut is now not seen until February. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from ECB speak, BOE speak, Canada employment data, US Michigan confidence, and some Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 155.22 – 30 July high – Strong
• R1 154.72 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewJapan FinMin Kato was on the wires saying officials are “watching developments in the FX market, including speculative moves, with an extremely high sense of urgency.” He also said that the recent drop in the yen was “one-sided and rapid” – likely signalling an elevated state of alertness for FX intervention should the yen continue weakening. On the data front, Japan real household spending contracted by less than expected. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from ECB speak, BOE speak, Canada employment data, US Michigan confidence, and some Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6688 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has done an outstanding job recovering amidst a wave of intense Dollar demand on the Trump victory. The price action can be reconciled by the fact that the risk correlated Australian Dollar has seen offsetting positive flow from record high US equities. We’re also seeing Aussie demand after the RBA leaned more hawkish than expected earlier in the week. Earlier today, Aussie trade data came out and didn’t factor into price action. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from ECB speak, BOE speak, Canada employment data, US Michigan confidence, and some Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3959 – 1 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar is under pressure overall but found some demand on Thursday, getting a boost from an advance in the commodities complex. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from ECB speak, BOE speak, Canada employment data, US Michigan confidence, and some Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6038 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5912 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has done an outstanding job considering massive demand for the US Dollar on the Trump trade and a softer New Zealand jobs report earlier in the week. Most of the flow is coming from record high stocks which are more than offsetting and propping the risk correlated commodity currency. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from ECB speak, BOE speak, Canada employment data, US Michigan confidence, and some Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5697, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6000 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5990 – 7 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5790 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2643 – 7 November low – Medium
• S2 2602 – 10 October low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

Later today, we get two important central bank decisions. First up is the Bank of England, with the central bank widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Then it’s on to the Fed decision, where the central bank is also expected to cut rates by 25 basis point.

Special Report Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/7novlmaxspecial.mp3

View Details

The story into Thursday is a story of profit taking and position adjusting. Indeed, we are coming out of a wild session of trade which saw the US Dollar rocket higher on the back of the news of the red sweep for the Republican party in the US election.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/7novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Possible bottom formation * US SPX500 Sights set on 6000 * GOLD (spot) Closing in on 3000

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro trying to recover from tariff fears * GBPUSD Central bank rate decisions command attention * USDJPY Yen trying to recover ahead of Fed meeting * AUDUSD Aussie helped along by record stocks * USDCAD Canada Ivey PMIs in the spotlight * NZDUSD Kiwi gets boost from Fed position squaring * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Slaying Some Passive Investing Dragons, R. Wigglesworth, Financial Times (November 4, 2024) * Bloated Balance Sheets in Japan, N. Ito, Verdad* (November 4, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0937 – 6 November high – Strong

• R1 1.0832 – 1 November low – Medium
• S1 1.0683 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro is suffering from a little fear and panic as it contends with the possibility for another struggle during a Trump presidency. The threat of more tariffs with the new administration has opened a round of intense setbacks though we have seen some demand into the dip on solid Euro area data and on profit taking ahead of today’s Fed decision. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from Eurozone industrial production, German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone construction PMIs, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the BOE policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and the Fed policy decision.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3103 – 15 October high – Medium
• R1 1.3048 – 6 November high – Strong
• S1 1.2834– 6 November low – Medium
• S2 1.2799 – 15 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has held up relatively well when compared to setbacks in the Euro and Yen post Trump victory. Most of the fallout from the UK budget has been priced and we’re also seeing profit taking on GBP shorts ahead of today’s BOE and Fed event risk. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from Eurozone industrial production, German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone construction PMIs, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the BOE policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and the Fed policy decision.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 155.22 – 30 July high – Strong
• R1 154.72 – 7 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results with the Yen selling off hard on the news of a Trump presidency. We have however seen some Yen demand into Thursday on chatter of possible MOF intervention and on positioning ahead of today’s Fed decision. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from Eurozone industrial production, German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone construction PMIs, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the BOE policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and the Fed policy decision.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6662 – 24 October high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has done an outstanding job recovering amidst a wave of intense Dollar demand on the Trump victory. The price action can be reconciled by the fact that the risk correlated Australian Dollar has seen offsetting positive flow from record high US equities. We’re also seeing some US Dollar selling ahead of today’s Fed decision. Earlier today, Aussie trade data came out and didn’t factor into price action. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from Eurozone industrial production, German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone construction PMIs, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the BOE policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and the Fed policy decision.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3959 – 1 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3817 – 6 November low – Strong
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results, with the Canadian Dollar selling off hard on the expectation for a Trump presidency. At the same time, we have seen some renewed demand for the Canadian Dollar into Thursday, mostly on profit taking ahead of the Fed decision. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from Eurozone industrial production, German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone construction PMIs, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the BOE policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and the Fed policy decision.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6021 – 6 November high – Medium
• S1 0.5912 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewWe’ve seen mostly offsetting flow in the New Zealand Dollar given setbacks from the Dollar bullish implication of a Trump presidency and demand from the surge in US equities to record highs. We’re left looking at additional demand into Thursday as the market looks to book profit on US Dollar longs ahead of the Fed decision. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from Eurozone industrial production, German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone construction PMIs, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the BOE policy decision, US initial jobless claims, and the Fed policy decision.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5697, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 6000 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5946 – 7 November/Record high – Medium
• S1 5790 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 5697 – 4 November low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Strong
• R1 2709 – 23 October low – Medium
• S1 2602 – 10 October low – Strong
• S2 2547 – 18 September low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

The US Dollar is making some big moves on this Wednesday with the Buck rocketing higher on the back of a red sweep victory for Donald Trump. The Dollar is at its strongest level in a year making notable moves against the Euro and Yen.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/6novllmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

Markets are all about US election results as we come into the European open on this Wednesday. At the time of this update, there is an overwhelming expectation Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/11/6novlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Strong support ahead of 1.0500 * GBPUSD Looking for next higher low * USDJPY Focus back on topside * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Possible bottom formation * US SPX500 Consolidates off record high * GOLD (spot) Closing in on 3000

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone producer prices stand out * GBPUSD UK services PMIs on tap * USDJPY Yen selling could invite intervention calls * AUDUSD Aussie hit hard in US election aftermath * USDCAD Canada Ivey PMIs in the spotlight * NZDUSD New Zealand employment data comes in soft * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Economy and Market Do Well Regardless, J. Calhoun, Alhambra (November 4, 2024) * Artificial Intelligence Undermining Google’s Monopoly, S. McBride, RiskHedge* (November 4, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0998 – 8 October high – Medium

• R1 1.0915 – 4 November high – Medium
• S1 1.0719 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results on this Wednesday, with the Euro selling off hard on the expectation for a Trump presidency. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, an ECB Lagarde speech, and Canada Ivey PMIs.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3103 – 15 October high – Medium
• R1 1.3044 – 30 October high – Strong
• S1 1.2843– 31 October low – Medium
• S2 1.2799 – 15 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results on this Wednesday, with the Pound selling off hard on the expectation for a Trump presidency. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, an ECB Lagarde speech, and Canada Ivey PMIs.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. A weekly close back above 150.00 will hint at the start to longer-term uptrend resumption.

• R2 155.22 – 30 July high – Strong
• R1 154.34 – 6 November high – Medium
• S1 151.28 – 6 November low – Medium
• S2 149.08 – 21 October low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results on this Wednesday, with the Yen selling off hard on the expectation for a Trump presidency. There is elevated chatter around the possibility for a fresh round of MOF intervention in light of the latest Yen weakness. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, an ECB Lagarde speech, and Canada Ivey PMIs.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6724 – 21 October high – Strong
• R2 0.6662 – 24 October high – Medium
• S1 0.6512 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.6472 – 6 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results on this Wednesday, with the Australian Dollar selling off hard on the expectation for a Trump presidency. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, an ECB Lagarde speech, and Canada Ivey PMIs.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.4000 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3959 – 1 November/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.3813 – 24 October low – Medium
• S2 1.3747 – 17 October low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results on this Wednesday, with the Canadian Dollar selling off hard on the expectation for a Trump presidency. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, an ECB Lagarde speech, and Canada Ivey PMIs.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6120 – 11 October high – Strong
• R1 0.6053 – 23 October high – Medium
• S1 0.5915 – 6 November low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewPrice action is all about the US election results on this Wednesday, with the New Zealand Dollar selling off hard on the expectation for a Trump presidency. The New Zealand Dollar is also contending with a round of weaker than expected New Zealand employment data. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, an ECB Lagarde speech, and Canada Ivey PMIs.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5891 – 17 October/Record high– Strong
• R1 5869 – 6 November high – Medium
• S1 5677 – 2 October low – Strong
• S2 5642 – 13 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data, and geopolitical risk in the weeks and months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2800 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2791 – 31 October/Record high – Medium
• S1 2602 – 10 October low – Strong
• S2 2547 – 18 September low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

News flow has been mostly dominated by all things geopolitical following yesterday’s Iran attack on Israel. Financial markets had responded as one would expect with risk off flow, though since the New York close on Tuesday, things have been relatively stable.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/10/2octlmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

There have been two major developments over the past 24 hours, both having a risk off impact on financial markets. The first is the Iran attack on Israel which has escalated geopolitical tension and triggered a flight to safety back into the US Dollar. The second is the International Longshoreman Association strike.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/10/2octlmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Testing major resistance * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Running into range high * US SPX 500 Uptrend well intact * GOLD (spot) More record gains expected

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone inflation data comes in soft * GBPUSD Pound falls victim to geopolitical tension * USDJPY Yen still weaker post BOJ Minutes * AUDUSD Aussie supported on policy divergence * USDCAD Canadian Dollar outperforms on PMIs, oil surge * NZDUSD Kiwi still finding comfort in stronger data * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The S&P Isn’t Obeying Seasonal Market Trends, S. McBride, RiskHedge (September 27, 2024) * Goldilocks Is In The House But The Story Isn’t Over, T. Slok, Apollo Academy* (September 28, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1215 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1046 – 1 October low– Medium
• S2 1.1002 – 11 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has rolled over on the back of softer Eurozone inflation data, dovish ECB speak, and renewed US Dollar demand on geopolitical risk concerns. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone unemployment, ECB speak, US ADP employment, and Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3435 – 26 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3237 – 1 October low – Medium
• S2 1.3145 – 18 September low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThere was no meaningful news out of the UK on Tuesday and most of the weakness in the Pound was attributed to broad based Dollar demand on a flight to safety as geopolitical tension was back on the rise following the Iran attack on Israel. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone unemployment, ECB speak, US ADP employment, and Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.18 – 2 September high – Strong
• R1 146.50 – 27 September high – Medium
• S1 142.90 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 141.64 – 30 September low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has continued with its weakness against the Buck, most recently on the back of weaker Japan housing and factory numbers and a BOJ Minutes showing no rush for additional rate hikes. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone unemployment, ECB speak, US ADP employment, and Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.7000 – Psychological – Strong
• R2 0.6943 – 30 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6814 – 24 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6737 – 19 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar is trying to recover from the panic setbacks around the Iran strike on Israel. The currency has been able to find bids into dips as things calm down on the geopolitical front and the focus shifts back to this week’s stronger Aussie retail sales data and an RBA policy outlook diverging with the Fed. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone unemployment, ECB speak, US ADP employment, and Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3648 – 19 September high –Strong
• R1 1.3540 –1 October high – Medium
• S1 1.3420 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3358 – 31 January low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar was an outlier on Tuesday, with the currency notably outperforming despite broad risk off flow from rising geopolitical tension. The primary drivers of the outperformance came from Canada PMIs returning to expansion territory and energy prices surging. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone unemployment, ECB speak, US ADP employment, and Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong
• R1 0.6379 – 30 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6252 – 26 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6106 – 11 September low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar is trying to recover after a shakeout from the Iran strike on Israel. The currency has been getting help from the latest boost from this week’s ANZ Survey of Business Opinion which spiked to a 10-year high. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone unemployment, ECB speak, US ADP employment, and Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5800 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5781 – 26 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 5596 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 5540 – 12 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2300 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2700 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2686 – 26 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 2547 – 18 September low – Medium
• S2 2472– 4 September low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

Most of what we’ve seen thus far on Tuesday has been an extension of the way things have been overall. Risk assets remain well in demand, gold trades near its recent record high, and the US Dollar isn’t finding much momentum into rallies.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/10/1octlmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

Fed rate cut expectations cooled off just a bit on Monday, resulting in a minor bout of demand for the US Dollar. The primary catalyst for the move came from less dovish speak out from Fed Chair Powell and Fed Bowman.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/10/1-october-lmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Testing major resistance * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Running into range high * US SPX 500 Extends record run * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro dips on cooler CPI, dovish ECB comments * GBPUSD UK mortgage approvals at 23-month high * USDJPY Yen slides some more after BOJ Minutes * AUDUSD Aussie retail sales come in above forecast * USDCAD Oil struggles weigh on the Canadian Dollar * NZDUSD Kiwi to fresh yearly high on business survey * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Even A Crystal Ball Wouldn’t Help Most Investors, G. Steer, Financial Times (September 26, 2024) * The Business of Football: The Big Data Arms Race, C. Justin, Financial Times* (September 27, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1215 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1069 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 1.1002 – 11 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro struggled on the final day of September, contending with month end flow, cooler CPI data out of Germany, and some dovish ECB remarks. ECB President Lagarde said core inflation was on a downward trend. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone inflation, Canada manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing PMIs, US JOLTs job openings, US construction spending, US ISM manufacturing, ECB speak, and Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3435 – 26 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3248 – 23 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3145 – 18 September low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound was a notable outperformer as the week got going, getting a boost from UK mortgage approvals hitting a 23-month high. The local rate market has eased up on November rate cut expectations, with things moving back down from 50 to 25. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone inflation, Canada manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing PMIs, US JOLTs job openings, US construction spending, US ISM manufacturing, ECB speak, and Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.18 – 2 September high – Strong
• R1 146.50 – 27 September high – Medium
• S1 142.90 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 141.64 – 30 September low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has continued with its weakness against the Buck, most recently on the back of weaker Japan housing and factory numbers and a BOJ Minutes showing no rush for additional rate hikes. Tuesday’s as expected Tankan and lower unemployment rate haven’t factored into price action. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone inflation, Canada manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing PMIs, US JOLTs job openings, US construction spending, US ISM manufacturing, ECB speak, and Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.7000 – Psychological – Strong
• R2 0.6943 – 30 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6814 – 24 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6737 – 19 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewChina stimulus measures have already been supporting the Australian Dollar, with the currency getting another boost on Tuesday from the better than expected Aussie retail sales print. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone inflation, Canada manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing PMIs, US JOLTs job openings, US construction spending, US ISM manufacturing, ECB speak, and Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3648 – 19 September high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 –Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3420 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3358 – 31 January low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has been a clear underperformer in recent sessions, mostly taking its hit from the drag in the price of oil. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone inflation, Canada manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing PMIs, US JOLTs job openings, US construction spending, US ISM manufacturing, ECB speak, and Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong
• R1 0.6379 – 30 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6176 – 17 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6106 – 11 September low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has extended its run of impressive gains in 2024, getting the latest boost from the ANZ Survey of Business Opinion which spiked to a 10-year high. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone inflation, Canada manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing PMIs, US JOLTs job openings, US construction spending, US ISM manufacturing, ECB speak, and Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5800 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5781 – 26 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 5596 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 5540 – 12 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2300 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2700 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2686 – 26 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 2547 – 18 September low – Medium
• S2 2472– 4 September low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

Optimism around global growth is running notably higher of late, with financial markets getting a healthy boost, initially from the Fed policy decision, and most recently from the news of the massive stimulus pledge out of China.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/27seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Pushing to major resistance * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Running into range high * US SPX 500 Extends record run * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD French bond yields top Spanish bond yields * GBPUSD Pound looking like safe haven for Euro traders * USDJPY BOJ cautious about future rate hikes * AUDUSD China stimulus measures keep Aussie propped * USDCAD Saudi production increase open CAD weakness * NZDUSD Kiwi feels good about consumer confidence data * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Was Jack Bogle Right About “Smart” Beta All Along?, J. Rekenthaler, Morningstar (September 25, 2024) * The Greed Theory of Inflation & the Cowardice of Economists, D. Rose, AIER* (September 26, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1215 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1069 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 1.1002 – 11 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewFrench bond yields have topped Spanish bond yields for the first time since 2007. There is concern about a European sovereign debt crisis. At the same time, Fed policy moves, the latest China easing measures and a Saudi oil production increase have taken center stage, more than offsetting Euro downside. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German unemployment, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, Canada GDP, US core PCE, and Michigan sentiment.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3435 – 26 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3248 – 23 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3145 – 18 September low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound is offering itself up as a kind of haven away from the Euro with all of the French fiscal problems brewing. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German unemployment, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, Canada GDP, US core PCE, and Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.18 – 2 September high – Strong
• R1 145.58 – 27 September high – Medium
• S1 142.90 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 141.74 – 20 September low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewWe’ve mostly been seeing mild Yen selling in recent sessions, presumably mostly on the back of a BOJ which is sounding a little more cautious about the timing of any future rate hikes. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German unemployment, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, Canada GDP, US core PCE, and Michigan sentiment.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.7000 – Psychological – Strong
• R2 0.6909 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6737 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6622 – 11 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewMost of this latest surge in support for the Australian Dollar into the end of the week is coming from the news of the latest wave of China stimulus measures. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German unemployment, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, Canada GDP, US core PCE, and Michigan sentiment.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3648 – 19 September high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 –Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3420 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3358 – 31 January low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has been a clear underperformer in recent sessions, taking a hit on the news of the Saudi oil production increase and subsequent sharp drop in the price of oil. Meanwhile, local data hasn’t helped much either after the Canada business barometer eased from 55 to 56.9. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German unemployment, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, Canada GDP, US core PCE, and Michigan sentiment.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong
• R1 0.6356 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6176 – 17 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6106 – 11 September low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar remains well in demand on the back of a better than expected September ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence read and the latest China stimulus measures. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German unemployment, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, Canada GDP, US core PCE, and Michigan sentiment.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5800 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5781 – 26 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 5596 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 5540 – 12 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2300 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2700 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2686 – 26 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 2472 – 4 September low – Medium
• S2 2432– 15 August low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

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Earlier today when we talked about short-term profit taking on Dollar shorts, we meant it. All of that is already behind us and we’re right back to seeing broad Dollar selling, along with fresh record highs in US equities and gold.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/26seplmaxnext24.mp3

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The BOJ Minutes were out earlier today and offered up no major surprises. The central bank saw more rate hikes ahead, though with uncertainty around the timing and pace of future hikes. Overall, the US Dollar remains under pressure on the monetary policy divergence theme.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/26seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Pushing to major resistance * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Running into range high * US SPX 500 Extends record run * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD France budget worry opens profit taking * GBPUSD BOE Greene calls for cautious rate cut approach * USDJPY BOJ Minutes offer up no real surprises * AUDUSD Aussie inflation data cools off * USDCAD Oil drop opens renewed CAD selling * NZDUSD Kiwi retains bid on stocks, commodities * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?, H. Marks, Oaktree Capital (September 19, 2024) * America Divided: The Women Who Vote Trump, P. Waldmeir, Financial Times* (September 26, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1215 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1069 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 1.1002 – 11 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro traded up to a fresh yearly high before running into some profit taking on the back of news around French budget woes. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, ECB speak, Canada earnings, US durable goods, US GDP, US initial jobless claims, US pending home sales, Fed speak, and ECB speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3430 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3248 – 23 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3145 – 18 September low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewBOE Greene comments stood out in a day of profit taking on currency longs against the US Dollar. Greene was out on the wires calling for a cautious approach to rate cuts. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, ECB speak, Canada earnings, US durable goods, US GDP, US initial jobless claims, US pending home sales, Fed speak, and ECB speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 145.56 – 4 September high – Strong
• R1 145.05 – 26 September high – Medium
• S1 142.90 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 141.74 – 20 September low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe BOJ released the Minutes to its July monetary policy meeting showing that Board members are leaning towards further increases to interest rates, although there has been some uncertainty over the pace of hikes, as well as the eventual peak in interest rates. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, ECB speak, Canada earnings, US durable goods, US GDP, US initial jobless claims, US pending home sales, Fed speak, and ECB speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.7000 – Psychological – Strong
• R2 0.6909 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6737 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6622 – 11 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewMonetary policy divergence has been behind a lot of the relative outperformance in the Australian Dollar since the recent RBA decision. The central bank is maintaining a higher for longer outlook, all while the Fed and other major central banks have shifted towards more accommodation. On the data front, job vacancies in Australia fell, though this hasn’t had much impact on price action. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, ECB speak, Canada earnings, US durable goods, US GDP, US initial jobless claims, US pending home sales, Fed speak, and ECB speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3648 – 19 September high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 –Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3420 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3358 – 31 January low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewCanadian Dollar strength couldn’t hold up on Wednesday with the currency coming under pressure on a breakdown in the price of oil. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, ECB speak, Canada earnings, US durable goods, US GDP, US initial jobless claims, US pending home sales, Fed speak, and ECB speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong
• R1 0.6356 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6176 – 17 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6106 – 11 September low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar remains well in demand on the back of a clear monetary policy divergence between the Fed and RBNZ. The currency has also been supported on the accompanying surge in commodities and risk assets. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, ECB speak, Canada earnings, US durable goods, US GDP, US initial jobless claims, US pending home sales, Fed speak, and ECB speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5800 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5759 – 26 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 5596 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 5540 – 12 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2300 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2700 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2671 – 25 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 2472 – 4 September low – Medium
• S2 2432– 15 August low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to at least see a mild bout of US Dollar demand after the currency took another healthy hit post last week’s Fed decision. The Buck is trading at or near yearly lows against many currencies and is perhaps looking a little extended, at least on a short-term basis.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/25seplmaxnext24.mp3

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Market pricing for another 50-basis point rate cut from the Fed in November is what is now driving things, with stocks continuing to extend record highs, accompanied by surging commodities – including record highs for gold, and a falling US Dollar.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/25seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Pushing to major resistance * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Running into range high * US SPX 500 Extends record run * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro higher despite softer German Ifo * GBPUSD Policy divergence drives fresh high * USDJPY Japan services PPI comes in above forecast * AUDUSD Aussie inflation data cools off * USDCAD Rallying commodities lift Canadian Dollar * NZDUSD Kiwi extends run on higher stocks, commodities * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading If You Think the Fed Matters, You Might Worry, J. Calhoun, Alhambra (September 23, 2024) * Content creators take the fight to AI, H. Murphy, Financial Times* (September 25, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1199 – 25 September high – Medium
• S1 1.1069 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 1.1002 – 11 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe market’s fixation on more robust rate cuts from the Fed continues to overshadow any other updates, including softer economic data out of the Eurozone that has increased odds for ECB rate cuts. On Tuesday, German Ifo reads came in softer than expected, but didn’t stop the Euro to trading back to fresh yearly high territory. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from some ECB speak and US new home sales.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 1.3430 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3248 – 23 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3145 – 18 September low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewAbsence of first tier UK data has kept the focus on the bigger picture of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and BOE, which has driven the Pound to yet another yearly high. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from some ECB speak and US new home sales.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 145.00 – Psychological – Medium
• R1 144.69 – 24 September high – Medium
• S1 141.74 – 20 September low – Medium
• S2 139.58 – 16 September/2024 low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewJapan services PPI came in slightly above forecast, though the market is still thinking about yesterday’s comments from BOJ Ueda that the central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates. Ultimately, we’ve seen a lot of directionless chop in recent sessions. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from some ECB speak and US new home sales.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.7000 – Psychological – Strong
• R2 0.6909 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6737 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6622 – 11 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has been bid up to a fresh yearly high after the RBA left policy unchanged while maintaining its hawkish stance. Having said this, we are seeing some selling into the latest rally, perhaps on the back of the latest round of Aussie inflation data which came in on the cooler side. The monthly CPI reading for August showed inflation slowing to its lowest since August 2021. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from some ECB speak and US new home sales.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3648 – 19 September high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 –Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3420 – 25 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3358 – 31 January low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar is up big this week on the back of rallying commodities prices, higher equities and solid Canada economic data. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from some ECB speak and US new home sales.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6400 – Figure – Strong
• R1 0.6356 – 25 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6176 – 17 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6106 – 11 September low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar remains well in demand on the back of a clear monetary policy divergence between the Fed and RBNZ. The currency has also been supported on the accompanying surge in commodities and risk assets. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from some ECB speak and US new home sales.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5750 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5746 – 25 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 5596 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 5540 – 12 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2300 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2700 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2671 – 25 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 2472 – 4 September low – Medium
• S2 2432– 15 August low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold while maintaining a relatively hawkish, and certainly less dovish tone. The move comes on the heels of last week’s dovish Fed decision and highlights a growing monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks which is having a clear impact on the US Dollar.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/24seplmaxnext24.mp3

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Fed speak continues to lean dovish post last week’s policy decision and rate cut odds for November have ramped up as a consequence. The market is now pricing a 60% chance for a second 50 basis point cut. All of this Fed pricing and repricing has been behind most of what we’ve seen in markets these past several days.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/24seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Setbacks viewed as corrective * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Finding support into dips * US SPX 500 Extends record run * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD ECB rate cut odds jump after weaker data * GBPUSD UK composite PMIs remain in expansion * USDJPY No surprises from Japan flash PMIs * AUDUSD RBA maintains hawkish stance on policy * USDCAD Loonie gets a boost from consumer confidence * NZDUSD New Zealand employment confidence reading declines * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Bye Bye Inflation. We Really Hardly Knew You…, Z. Karabell, The Edgy Optimist (September 20, 2024) * Pessimists Sound Smart, Optimists Make the Money, S. McBride, RiskHedge* (September 20, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1190 – 18 September high – Medium
• S1 1.1069 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 1.1002 – 11 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has been struggling with a run of Monday data showing the private sector economy shrinking for the first time since March, with the composite PMI read dipping below the 50 boom bust line, coming in at 48.9. As a consequence, odds for an October ECB rate cut have jumped to 40% from 25% last week. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada manufacturing sales, US Case Shiller, US house prices, US consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and a Bank of Canada Macklem speech.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3400 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3360 – 24 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3248 – 23 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3145 – 18 September low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK composite PMIs remained in expansionary territory which really stood out on Monday given the softer Eurozone data. This has allowed the Pound to hold up well despite Euro declines. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada manufacturing sales, US Case Shiller, US house prices, US consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and a Bank of Canada Macklem speech.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 145.00 – Psychological – Medium
• R1 144.50 – 19 September high – Medium
• S1 141.74 – 20 September low – Medium
• S2 139.58 – 16 September/2024 low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen is consolidating a recent run of declines and hasn’t done much thus far on Tuesday after taking in a mostly uneventful flash PMI report. Jibun Bank said that the September report showed growth momentum was sustained throughout the third quarter of 2024, and hinted at a stronger Q3 GDP reading. They, however, warned of headwinds to growth in Q4, saying that while there has been a sustained fall in the levels of outstanding business, this was largely due to a solid reduction in backlogs in the manufacturing sector, which could dampen growth towards the end of the year if demand didn’t pick up. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada manufacturing sales, US Case Shiller, US house prices, US consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and a Bank of Canada Macklem speech.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6872 – 28 December high – Strong
• R2 0.6856 – 24 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6737 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6622 – 11 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has been bid up to a fresh yearly high after the RBA left policy unchanged while maintaining its hawkish stance. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada manufacturing sales, US Case Shiller, US house prices, US consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and a Bank of Canada Macklem speech.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3648 – 19 September high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 –Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3487 – 23 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3466 – 6 September low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar wasn’t able to do much with a recent solid Canada retail sales number and higher oil prices, but finally got going on Monday after consumer confidence report impressed, coming in at the highest reading since May 2022. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada manufacturing sales, US Case Shiller, US house prices, US consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and a Bank of Canada Macklem speech.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6299 – 29 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 0.6281 – 23 September – Medium
• S1 0.6176 – 17 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6106 – 11 September low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar remains well in demand despite the Westpac-McDermott Miller employment confidence reading falling by 2.2 points to 89.2 in Q3, returning to around pandemic-era lows. Notably, job availability was seen as one of the major drags, tracking the softness in the New Zealand economy. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada manufacturing sales, US Case Shiller, US house prices, US consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and a Bank of Canada Macklem speech.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5750 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5744 – 19 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 5596 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 5540 – 12 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2300 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2650 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2637 – 24 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 2472 – 4 September low – Medium
• S2 2432– 15 August low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

With the exception of the Euro, we’re pretty much where we left off as the previous week closed out. The US Dollar remains under clear pressure, US equities are trading at record high levels, and gold has extended its own record run.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/23seplmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

The market continues to show its approval of last week’s Fed decision in which the central bank went ahead with the bigger 50-basis point rate cut, while communicating a message that the US economy was fine. This was the perfect combination to send the US Dollar lower and risk assets flying higher.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/23seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Setbacks viewed as corrective * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Finding support into dips * US SPX 500 Extends record run * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Softer confidence reads cap Euro for now * GBPUSD More GBP demand post strong UK retail sales * USDJPY BOJ in no rush to hike rates further * AUDUSD Softer Aussie data could shift RBA bias * USDCAD Loonie gets no help from retail sales, higher oil * NZDUSD Kiwi supported on macro forces * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Dividends Matter, Not In the Way You Might Think, Fisher Investments (September 19, 2024) * Draghi’s Call For More Gov’t Spending Will Weaken Europe, G. Sorman, City Journal* (September 19, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1190 – 18 September high – Medium
• S1 1.1069 – 19 September low– Medium
• S2 1.1002 – 11 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro remains well in demand on the growing yield differential with the US, but has found some resistance in recent sessions on the back of softer economic data. The latest round of soft data comes by way of Eurozone consumer confidence and French manufacturing confidence. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, UK CBI industrial trends, ECB speak, Fed speak, Canada housing data, and US PMI reads.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3358 – Monthly low/January 2023 – Medium
• R1 1.3341 – 20 September/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3115 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3002 – 11 September low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK retail sales came in above forecast, which only added to an already very well bid Pound on account of a growing yield differential with the US Dollar. The local rate market has reduced odds from 54bps to just 40bps of BOE rate cuts between now and year end. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, UK CBI industrial trends, ECB speak, Fed speak, Canada housing data, and US PMI reads.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 145.00 – Psychological – Medium
• R1 144.50 – 19 September high – Medium
• S1 141.74 – 20 September low – Medium
• S2 139.58 – 16 September/2024 low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has come back under pressure after a BOJ decision which left rates on hold as expected, but also communicated a message the central bank was in no rush to hike rates further. Yield differentials have since moved back towards the US Dollar. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, UK CBI industrial trends, ECB speak, Fed speak, Canada housing data, and US PMI reads.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6872 – 28 December high – Strong
• R2 0.6840 – 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• S1 0.6671 – 12 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6622 – 11 September low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewPreliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into contraction at 46.7 from 48.5 prior, well below the 50 boom-bust level, while the services PMI component edged closer to the 50.0 level at 50.6 against 52.5 prior. The RBA meets tomorrow and is not expected to cut rates given the recent spate of upbeat data. This latest data could even temper their somewhat hawkish bias. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, UK CBI industrial trends, ECB speak, Fed speak, Canada housing data, and US PMI reads.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3685 – 19 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3648 –19 September high – Medium
• S1 1.3533 – 19 September low – Medium
• S2 1.3500 – Round Number – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar remains surprisingly weak despite stronger Canada retail sales and an impressive recovery in the price of oil. It seems the market continues to price more accommodation from the Bank of Canada into year end. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, UK CBI industrial trends, ECB speak, Fed speak, Canada housing data, and US PMI reads.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6299 – 29 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 0.6269 – 19 September – Medium
• S1 0.6106 – 11 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6084 – 14 August high –Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThere were no major surprises from Kiwi growth data which came in slightly better than expected last Thursday. This has left the currency trading higher on the data, broad based Dollar selling and stock market demand post the Fed’s 50-basis point rate cut. We have seen some mild selling after New Zealand export data was a bid of a drag earlier today. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads, UK CBI industrial trends, ECB speak, Fed speak, Canada housing data, and US PMI reads.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.

• R2 5750 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 5744 – 19 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 5596 – 13 September low – Medium
• S2 5540 – 12 September low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2300 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2650 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2632 – 23 September/Record high – Medium
• S1 2472 – 4 September low – Medium
• S2 2432– 15 August low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

Growing macro concerns are the talk of the town and have done a good job to overshadow last week’s less cool US core PCE data. We say this because odds for a 50-basis point rate cut from the Fed this month have risen back to 40%.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/4seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Setbacks viewed as corrective * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Extends 2024 recovery * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Volkswagen news adds to Euro downside * GBPUSD Worry around next month’s UK Budget * USDJPY Yen looking ahead to Thursday wage data * AUDUSD Aussie GDP comes in at slower pace * USDCAD BoC decision takes spotlight on Wednesday * NZDUSD Underwhelming GDT auction results * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading What To Make of Worst Calendar Month for Stocks, Fisher Investments (August 30, 2024) * 10 Stocks the Best Fund Managers Have Been Selling, S. Dziubinski, Morningstar* (August 30, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1020 – 19 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has sunk to its lowest level in two weeks, getting no help from the latest news out of Volkswagen. The company is considering whether it will need to close factories for the first time in its 87 year history. Market participants are concerned this news is a reflection on the state of the broader Euro economy. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US JOLTs job openings, US factory orders, and the Fed Beige Book.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3266 – 27 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound is already starting to worry about next month’s UK Budget, which hasn’t been to UK markets historically speaking. Tax hikes are expected and haven’t helped matters. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US JOLTs job openings, US factory orders, and the Fed Beige Book.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.21 – 2 September high – Medium
• R1 147.00 – Figure– Medium
• S1 144.65 – 30 August low – Medium
• S2 143.44 – 26 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThere hasn’t been much for traders to be looking at as far as the Japan economic calendar goes. A minor downward revision to some Japan PMI reads has had little impact on price action and more of the attention has moved towards tomorrow’s wage data. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US JOLTs job openings, US factory orders, and the Fed Beige Book.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6824– 29 August high – Strong
• R2 0.6762 – 21 August high– Medium
• S1 0.6685 – 4 September low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie GDP came out at a slower pace than expected which has added to the latest wave of downside from broad based risk off flow. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US JOLTs job openings, US factory orders, and the Fed Beige Book.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3587 –11 July low – Medium
• S1 1.3440 – 28 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewOil had plunged to its lowest level since December 2023 which hasn’t done anything to help the Canadian Dollar. The fact that Tuesday’s Canada manufacturing PMI reads were better than expected has done nothing to inspire Canadian Dollar demand on account of the oil drop and downturn in investor risk appetite. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US JOLTs job openings, US factory orders, and the Fed Beige Book.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6370 – Monthly high/December 2023 – Strong
• R1 0.6299 – 29 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6150 – Mid-Figure– Medium
• S2 0.6128 – 22 August high –Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewTuesday’s New Zealand GDT auction results were less than impressive. This in conjunction with a wave of risk off flow in global markets has been behind the latest wave of downside pressure on the Kiwi rate. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Eurozone, German, and UK services PMIs, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US JOLTs job openings, US factory orders, and the Fed Beige Book.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5660 – 3 September high – Medium
• S1 5497 – 4 September low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

Markets are getting back to fuller form as they welcome the return of the US from a long weekend holiday break. As things get going, there’s been a definitive bid in the US Dollar, also accompanied by a reduction in risk appetite.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/3seplmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

Mild risk off flow and a strong wave of US Dollar demand is what we’re seeing as the markets get set for the return of the US following a long weekend holiday break. It’s possible we’re seeing a delayed reaction to last week’s not as cool US core PCE.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/3seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Setbacks viewed as corrective * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Extends 2024 recovery * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Flash PMIs give Euro mild boost * GBPUSD UK manufacturing PMIs highest since 2022 * USDJPY Important data out of Japan later this week * AUDUSD Australia current account wider than expected * USDCAD Positioning ahead of Wednesday’s BoC decision * NZDUSD New Zealand GDT auction due later today * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Utopia of the Seas Is a Big Monument to Fed Irrelevance, J. Tamny, Forbes (September 1, 2024) * The Changing Role of the US Dollar, S. Boocker, Brookings* (August 23, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1020 – 19 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewMonday was an exceptionally thin day of trade on account of the US holiday closure. We did see some bids in the Euro after some flash PMI data came in a little better than expected on the whole. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, US construction spending, and the New Zealand GDT auction.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3266 – 27 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewActivity was exceptionally light to start the week with the US closed for holiday. UK manufacturing PMI data held at its highest reading since June 2022, which generated some bids for the Pound. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, US construction spending, and the New Zealand GDT auction.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.21 – 2 September high – Medium
• R1 147.00 – Figure– Medium
• S1 144.65 – 30 August low – Medium
• S2 143.44 – 26 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has found renewed selling pressure on the back of a round of softer Japan economic data and broad based US Dollar demand. Wednesday’s finalized Japan services PMIs numbers will be watched closely for cues into future BOJ moves. We’ll also get Japan wage growth on Thursday and household spending on Friday. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, US construction spending, and the New Zealand GDT auction.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6824 – 29 August high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australia current account came in wider than expected earlier today. Meanwhile, we’re also seeing a wave of broad based US Dollar demand as the US market returns from holiday. The market will now look ahead to Wednesday’s Aussie GDP and inflation data. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, US construction spending, and the New Zealand GDT auction.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3440 – 28 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has been weaker of late on softer oil prices and on positioning ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision where a rate cut is expected. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, US construction spending, and the New Zealand GDT auction.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6370 – Monthly high/December 2023 – Strong
• R1 0.6299 – 29 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6179 – 21 August high– Medium
• S2 0.6128 – 22 August high –Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewEarlier today, New Zealand export and import prices came in higher than expected. But the data has taken a backseat to a wave of broad based US Dollar demand as the US returns from the long weekend holiday break. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Canada manufacturing PMIs, US ISM manufacturing, US construction spending, and the New Zealand GDT auction.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5660 – 3 September high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

A sell-off in the price of oil and other pro-cyclical commodities into the end of last week has weighed on sentiment across the board. The one saving grace for investors has been Fed rate pricing, with the market looking at a 30% chance for a larger 50 basis point cut from the Fed this month.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/09/2seplmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Setbacks viewed as corrective * GBPUSD Plenty of room to run higher * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Extends 2024 recovery * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro struggles with France GDP * GBPUSD Decline in UK house prices rattles Pound * USDJPY Yen struggles with weak round of data * AUDUSD Aussie struggles with soft retail sales * USDCAD Canada GDP overshadowed by slumping oil * NZDUSD Kiwi setbacks mitigated by building approvals * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading How Japan Built a Global Natural Gas Empire, S. Chen, Bloomberg (August 30, 2024) * Why Traditional Economic Indicators Aren’t Working, J. Myers, CFA Institute* (August 29, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1020 – 19 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro took another hit on Friday on the back of a downward revision to an already ugly France GDP print. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK manufacturing PMIs. US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3266 – 27 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewAn unexpected decline in UK house prices has rattled the Pound after most were expecting higher prices in the wake of the BOE rate cut. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK manufacturing PMIs. US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 146.53 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 143.44 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has found renewed selling pressure on the back of a round of softer Japan economic data by way of a higher unemployment rate and industrial production and retail sales misses. Monday’s stronger manufacturing PMI read has perhaps slowed Yen declines just a bit. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK manufacturing PMIs. US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6824 – 29 August high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie retail sales fell flat at the end of last week and has opened the door to some more downside pressure on the risk correlated commodity currency. An early round of mixed Aussie data hasn’t really factored into price action. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK manufacturing PMIs. US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3440 – 28 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar couldn’t enjoy the benefits of a stronger Canada GDP print, instead distracted by another round of heavy setbacks in the price of oil. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points when it meets later this week. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK manufacturing PMIs. US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6370 – Monthly high/December 2023 – Strong
• R1 0.6299 – 29 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6194 – 27 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6128 – 22 August high –Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe latest round of selling in the New Zealand Dollar has been somewhat mitigated by the big surge in New Zealand building approvals. July building permits were up 25.2% versus -17% previous. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK manufacturing PMIs. US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5656 – 26 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

Thursday’s run of impressive US economic data in the form of GDP and initial jobless claims could very well take any expectation for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut off the table. Nevertheless, despite the stronger showing, the rates market hasn’t really budged, still pricing another 100 basis points of cuts between now and year end.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/30auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Focused on major range high * GBPUSD Pushes through 2023 peak * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Extends 2024 recovery * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German inflation back below 2% * GBPUSD Prospect of higher taxes spooks Pound * USDJPY Yen sideways after offsetting data * AUDUSD Aussie shrugs off soft round of data * USDCAD Canada GDP in focus on this Friday * NZDUSD Building permits, consumer confidence look good * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading 3 Contrarian Investment Strategies Worth Considering, B. Armour, Morningstar (August 28, 2024) * The Transformative Power of Musk Start-Up Neuralink, S. McBride, RiskHedge* (August 28, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1056 – 29 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewGerman inflation fell below 2% for the first time since March 2021 and the Euro extended its recent correction lower as ECB rate cut odds pushed up. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German retail sales and unemployment, UK BOE consumer credit and mortgage approvals, Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and Michigan sentiment.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.366 – 27 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThere hasn’t been a lot of news out of the UK this week, though the prospect of higher taxes has dented GBP sentiment for the second day in a row. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German retail sales and unemployment, UK BOE consumer credit and mortgage approvals, Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 146.53 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 143.44 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen hasn’t been able to do much with a hotter run of Tokyo CPI data given the offsetting, softer than expected industrial production and retail sales prints. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German retail sales and unemployment, UK BOE consumer credit and mortgage approvals, Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and Michigan sentiment.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6824 – 29 August high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThursday’s softer Aussie private capital expenditure data has been followed up be below forecast Aussie retail sales on Friday. Still, despite the softer round of data, the Australian Dollar has held up relatively well on bigger picture correlations with commodities and equities. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German retail sales and unemployment, UK BOE consumer credit and mortgage approvals, Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and Michigan sentiment.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3440 – 28 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar is looking tired after being unable to extend its recent recovery on a positive Canada business survey and higher energy prices. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German retail sales and unemployment, UK BOE consumer credit and mortgage approvals, Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and Michigan sentiment.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6370 – Monthly high/December 2023 – Strong
• R1 0.6299 – 29 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6194 – 27 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6128 – 22 August high –Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewNew Zealand building permits and consumer confidence reads have come in on the healthy side, already following up an explosive ANZ business confidence reading from the previous day. This has kept the New Zealand Dollar outperforming and well supported into the weekly close. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German retail sales and unemployment, UK BOE consumer credit and mortgage approvals, Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, Chicago PMIs, and Michigan sentiment.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5656 – 26 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

The New Zealand Dollar is the big winner on the day, racing to a fresh yearly high against the Buck on the back of a booming business confidence read. Risk sentiment is also looking up again after it had stalled out on Wednesday.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/29auglmaxnext245.mp3

View Details

We come into Thursday with the market in mild profit taking mode. The US Dollar has rallied back a bit and US equities have reversed lower. Once again, it’s hard to put too much behind any of this price action given the super thin end of summer trade.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/29auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Focused on major range high * GBPUSD Pushes through 2023 peak * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Extends 2024 recovery * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German inflation data stands out Thursday * GBPUSD Pound not immune to broad USD gains * USDJPY Friday’s Tokyo CPI data comes into focus * AUDUSD Aussie private capex falls off hard in Q2 * USDCAD Oil reversal, equities weakness weigh on CAD * NZDUSD ANZ business confidence explodes higher * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Rise of Climbing, C. Justin, Financial Times (August 28, 2024) * Have driverless cars hit a roadblock?, M. Novik, Financial Times* (August 29, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1072 – 20 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewConcerns around some softer data out of Germany this week have many a trader questioning the health of the Euro economy and booking profits on a long Euro position they worry may have run too far and fast. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation reads, Eurozone sentiment and confidence updates, the Canada current account and weekly earnings, US GDP, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.366 – 27 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewWednesday’s round of GBP setbacks were attributed to nothing more than broad based US Dollar demand on a wave of flight to safety in some very thin summer trade. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation reads, Eurozone sentiment and confidence updates, the Canada current account and weekly earnings, US GDP, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 146.53 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 143.44 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewOn Wednesday, BOJ Deputy Governor Himino was out on the wires echoing recent comments from BOJ Ueda, hinting the central bank could hike rates further if the economy and prices evolved as projected. There hasn’t been a whole lot of activity since and the Yen has been trading in a tight range as a consequence. The market will now be looking ahead to Friday’s Japan inflation data. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation reads, Eurozone sentiment and confidence updates, the Canada current account and weekly earnings, US GDP, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6814 – 28 August high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has held up well in the face of some softer Thursday data. New private capital expenditure dropped a healthy amount in Q2 on a seasonally adjusted basis, also snapping a seven-quarter streak of growth, while falling at its quickest pace seen since the second quarter of 2020. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation reads, Eurozone sentiment and confidence updates, the Canada current account and weekly earnings, US GDP, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3440 – 28 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar finally came back under pressure on Wednesday on the back of renewed downside pressure on the price of oil and some weakness in US equities. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation reads, Eurozone sentiment and confidence updates, the Canada current account and weekly earnings, US GDP, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6370 – Monthly high/December 2023 – Strong
• R1 0.6296 – 29 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 0.6194 – 27 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6128 – 22 August high –Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has been a clear outperformer, surging to fresh yearly highs and standing out as the best performer amongst the developed currencies over the past 30 days. The latest jolt higher has come from an explosive ANZ business confidence reading coming in at 50.6 versus 27.1 previous and 20 forecast. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation reads, Eurozone sentiment and confidence updates, the Canada current account and weekly earnings, US GDP, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5656 – 26 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

It’s been tough to grasp at any meaningful short-term fundamentals in recent sessions, with most of the market off enjoying the final days of summer. But we did see more reason for the market to be feeling good about Fed rate cuts after taking in some weak US labor data.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/28auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Focused on major range high * GBPUSD Pushes through 2023 peak * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro digesting an ugly run of German data * GBPUSD UK PM Starmer warns of tough budget * USDJPY BOJ Himino echoes recent BOJ Ueda comments * AUDUSD Aussie headline CPI less soft than expected * USDCAD Price action more indicative of a short squeeze * NZDUSD Kiwi benefits from USD weakness, higher stocks * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Edge of Rate Cuts: How We Got Here, B. Ritholtz, The Big Picture (August 26, 2024) * Stocks Usually Weak Heading Into National Elections, S. McBride, RiskHedge* (August 26, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1072 – 20 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro hasn’t been wanting to extend gains right now, perhaps weighed down by Tuesday’s softer German data including consumer confidence reads and discouraging private consumption and capital investment. The only saving grace in the German GDP data came from an upward adjustment to government spending. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.366 – 27 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has been a clear outperformer in recent sessions as BOE rate cut odds fade. At the same time, the PM has warned of a painful budget, higher taxes, and greater borrowing. On the data front, CBI retail sales went negative for the third month. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 146.53 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 143.44 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewBOJ Deputy Governor Himino was out on the wires echoing recent comments from BOJ Ueda, hinting the central bank could hike rates further if the economy and prices evolved as projected. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6814 – 28 August high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie headline CPI decelerated by less than expected, with the result translating to a fresh wave of Aussie demand to an eight month high against the US Dollar. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3440 – 28 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe latest run of Canadian Dollar gains seem to be more about stop-hunting than anything else. Fundamentally, the outlook for the Canada economy remains in question, while Tuesday’s setbacks in the price of oil and negative wholesale sales print should do nothing to help. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6286 – 4 January/2024 high – Strong
• R1 0.6255 – 27 August high – Medium
• S1 0.6128 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6084 – 14 August high – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has been well bid of late on the back of a weaker US Dollar and well supported US equities. Economic data out of New Zealand has been rather neutral of late. Filled jobs contracted in July for a fourth straight month, though the pace of decline fell to its slowest rate over this time period. Absence of first tier data on the Wednesday calendar will leave the focus on Nvidia earnings and bigger picture macro themes.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5656 – 26 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

We’re looking at a market in some very thin summer trading conditions. What we’ve seen on Tuesday thus far is nothing more than choppy consolidation for the most part. The only notable exception is the Pound, which has extended its run of yearly highs as the market continues to price in more the favorable UK yield differential.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/28auglmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

We’re coming out of a very quiet Monday session of trade in which it was mostly about mild profit taking after a strong run of Dollar weakness and equity market strength on the back of the latest dovish communication from the Fed Chair.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/27auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Focused on major range high * GBPUSD Pushes through 2023 peak * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German IFO falls for fourth month * GBPUSD BOE pricing shows only 44 basis points of cuts * USDJPY Japan services PPI shows modest slowdown * AUDUSD China industrial profits rise at fastest in 5 months * USDCAD Oil spike fuels Canadian Dollar demand * NZDUSD Weak outlook for NZ commercial property market * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Powell Pivot, Two Myths & Team Transitory Lost, C. Roche, Discipline Funds (August 25, 2024) * Could a new law protect Europe’s soil?, C. Cookson, Financial Times* (August 27, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1072 – 20 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro retreated on Monday after the German IFO survey feel for a fourth month. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK CBI distributive trades, Canada wholesale sales, US Case Shiller, the house price index, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3231 – 23 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewAbsence of UK data on a quiet Monday left the Pound in mild pullback mode on profit taking from short-term accounts. But with the BOE only expected to cut 44 basis points between now and year end, versus the 100 basis points expected from the Fed, yield differentials should continue to support the UK currency. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK CBI distributive trades, Canada wholesale sales, US Case Shiller, the house price index, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 146.53 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 143.44 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Japan services PPI gauge for July was released earlier today, showing a modest slowdown in the annual pace of services producer price growth. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK CBI distributive trades, Canada wholesale sales, US Case Shiller, the house price index, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewChina industrial profits rose at the fastest pace in five months, which has perhaps been helping to give an otherwise quiet Australian Dollar on boost. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK CBI distributive trades, Canada wholesale sales, US Case Shiller, the house price index, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3463 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewMonday’s bout of outperformance in the Canadian Dollar was all about a spike in the price of oil. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK CBI distributive trades, Canada wholesale sales, US Case Shiller, the house price index, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6286 – 4 January/2024 high – Strong
• R1 0.6237 – 23 August high – Medium
• S1 0.6128 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6084 – 14 August high – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe RBNZ issued a Financial Stability Report Special Topic paper today, indicating the outlook for the New Zealand commercial property market remained weak due to high interest rates, remote work, and a continued rise in online shopping. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from German GDP, UK CBI distributive trades, Canada wholesale sales, US Case Shiller, the house price index, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5656 – 26 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

The US Dollar is finding some mild demand as the new week gets going, though we’re not sure the price action is anything more than profit taking from shorter-term accounts. The Fed Chair has ushered in a new wave of dovishness after saying the time had come to adjust policy, comments that should continue to invite Dollar selling into any rallies.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/26auglmaxnext24.mp3

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The market was looking for some juicy dovish speak from the Fed Chair on Friday and he certainly didn’t disappoint. Jerome Powell was out on the wires saying the time had come to adjust policy. The market took the news as confirmation it had been doing a good job with rate pricing.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/26auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Focused on major range high * GBPUSD Pushes through 2023 peak * USDJPY Additional setbacks limited * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German Ifo reads stand out on Monday * GBPUSD Strong contrast of messaging from BOE, Fed * USDJPY BOJ Ueda keeps Yen running strong * AUDUSD Positive risk backdrop fuels more Aussie gains * USDCAD Canadian Dollar lags on softer retail sales * NZDUSD Kiwi shrugs off retail sales, focused on macro picture * US SPX 500 Stocks propped on accommodative policy * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Win Rate For 60/40 Portfolio Over Time, B. Carlson, AWOCS (August 22, 2024) * Inside Great Britain’s ‘Gangbusters’ Q2, Fisher Investments* (August 15, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1202 – 26 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1072 – 20 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has extended yearly and multi-month highs on the back of dovish Fed Chair comments and this latest run of Euro area data including French confidence numbers and higher Eurozone inflation expectations. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3300 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3231 – 23 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3076 – 22 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3011 – 21 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewNo surprise to see the Pound race to another yearly high, taking out the 2023 peak along the way. There has been a clear contrast in messaging out from the Fed and BOE. On the one side, the Fed Chair has set the stage for a wave of easing, while on the other side, BOE Bailey has been cautious about rate cuts while stressing inflation is still not back to target. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 147.00 – Figure – Medium
• R1 146.53 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 143.44 – 26 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewBOJ Ueda has kept the Yen better bid than many had thought after recent remarks before parliament. The central banker said the BOJ would raise rates again if the economy stayed in line, while claiming financial conditions remain easy after the July hike. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6840– 2 January/2024 high – Strong
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high– Strong
• S1 0.6697 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6637 – 19 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar comes into the new week in fine form, with a focus on the 2024 high on the back of dovish Fed Chair comments, better bid commodities, and ongoing demand for equities. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3642 – 20 August high –Strong
• R1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3498 – 23 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3420 – 8 March low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has been bid with the rest of the currency market on broad based US Dollar selling from a more dovish Fed. However, the Canadian Dollar has also lagged relative to its peers after Canada retail sales came in on the softer side. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6286 – 4 January/2024 high – Strong
• R1 0.6237 – 23 August high – Medium
• S1 0.6128 – 22 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6084 – 14 August high – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewSofter New Zealand retail sales have done nothing to slow the pace of Kiwi gains, with the currency focused on a retest of the 2024 high as it builds momentum from healthy risk appetite in global markets on the back of dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, Canada wholesale sales, US durable goods, and Dallas Fed manufacturing.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5647 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThe US equities market remains exceptionally well supported in 2024 on the back of an ongoing expectation for more rate cuts than less going forward. Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy and this has also been accompanied by an accommodative adjustment of Fed policy. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.

View Details

The story for Friday is going to be about digesting the latest wave of dollar weakness and US equities strength to determine if we should expect more to come in the days and weeks ahead. The market is pricing about 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts between now and year end and is feeling really good about this prospect.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/23auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Focused on major range high * GBPUSD Extends yearly high * USDJPY Bullish resumption on cards * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German manufacturing slump stalls Euro * GBPUSD Pound gets another boost from PMI data * USDJPY Yield differentials open Yen selling pressure * AUDUSD Aussie reverses course as metals stumble * USDCAD Railroad strike adds to uncertainty * NZDUSD New Zealand retail sales in contraction again * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Inflation or Price Gouging?, B. Carlson, AWOCS (August 21, 2024) * Why Private Equity Is More Speculative Than ’08 Housing, C. Reilly, RiskHedge* (August 23, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1276 – 18 July/2023 high – Strong

• R1 1.1175 – 21 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.1072 – 20 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0950 – 15 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has stalled out after an impressive run to yearly highs, weighed down on Thursday from slumping German manufacturing PMIs. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from ECB inflation expectations, Canada retail sales, US new home sales, and a number of noteworthy central bank speak highlighted by a Fed Chair Powell appearance.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3143 – 14 July/2023 high – Strong
• R1 1.3131 – 22 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.2974 – 20 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2848 – 16 August low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK PMIs were strong and CBI total orders were less bad which helped to drive more demand for the surging Pound. Sights are now set on a break of the 2023 high. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Canada retail sales, US new home sales, and a number of noteworthy central bank speak highlighted by a Fed Chair Powell appearance.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 149.40 – 15 August high – Strong
• R1 148.06 – 19 August high – Strong
• S1 144.45 – 21 August low – Medium
• S2 143.62 – 6 August low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewStronger Japan PMI data was shrugged off and mostly as expected inflation data ignored, with the Yen selling off as yield differentials came back front and center. BOJ Ueda was out on the wires talking monetary policy but didn’t really offer up any surprises. The central bank could hike rates more if necessary but won’t be looking to do anything more any time soon. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Canada retail sales, US new home sales, and a number of noteworthy central bank speak highlighted by a Fed Chair Powell appearance.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6762 – 21 August high– Medium
• S1 0.6637 – 19 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6563 – 15 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewA breakdown in metals prices and some profit taking in US equities are responsible for the latest round of setbacks in the Australian Dollar. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Canada retail sales, US new home sales, and a number of noteworthy central bank speak highlighted by a Fed Chair Powell appearance.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3685 – 19 August high – Medium
• R1 1.3642 – 20 August high – Medium
• S1 1.3571 – 21 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has sold off into the end of the week on commodities weakness, US equities profit taking and some developments on the local front. The railroad strike has left things more uncertain and freight delays have been worrying for market participants. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Canada retail sales, US new home sales, and a number of noteworthy central bank speak highlighted by a Fed Chair Powell appearance.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6223 – 12 June high – Medium
• R1 0.6179 – 21 August high – Medium
• S1 0.6038 – 19 August low– Medium
• S2 0.5974 – 15 August low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has stumbled into the end of the week as profit taking in US equities kicks in. Meanwhile, a weaker than expected New Zealand retail sales showing has added to the downside pressure. The latest result represents the ninth contraction over the past 10 quarters. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Canada retail sales, US new home sales, and a number of noteworthy central bank speak highlighted by a Fed Chair Powell appearance.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5647 – 22 August high – Medium
• S1 5516 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 5398 – 25 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2532 – 20 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

The US economy continues to see a lot of hot and cold. Investors haven’t been displeased in any way by this as it means data is strong enough that we shouldn’t see a recession, yet soft enough to justify additional easing from the Fed.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/19auglmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

The US Dollar has come back under notable pressure in recent sessions. There are a number of possible drivers of the price action, mostly positive. For the most part, we’ve seen a healthy uptick in investor risk appetite, helped along by this latest solid round of US economic data. Absence of first tier data ahead will leave the focus on bigger picture themes.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/19auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Tracking to range resistance * GBPUSD Focused on topside * USDJPY Bullish resumption on cards * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Higher low sought out * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone trade surplus helps fuel gains * GBPUSD Nice rebound for UK retail sales * USDJPY Nikkei erases post-BOJ losses * AUDUSD RBA Bullock says premature to talk rate cuts * USDCAD Canadian Dollar lags on oil, local data * NZDUSD New Zealand manufacturing survey jumps * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading AI power demand could stifle industry’s growth, M. McCormick, Financial Times (August 19, 2024) * Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole, B. Dudley, Bloomberg* (August 16, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1100 – Figure – Strong

• R1 1.1048 – 14 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.0914 – 13 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0882 – 8 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has extended its run of yearly highs against the Dollar, getting an added push on the back of an impressive Eurozone trade surplus for June. Meanwhile, the US Dollar was unsettled by the Harris proposal of price controls. Absence of first tier data on Monday’s calendar will leave the focus on bigger picture themes and flow.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3000 – Psychological – Medium
• S1 1.2848 – 16 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2665 – 8 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK retail sales came in on the stronger side, putting in a nice rebound from the previous print. Meanwhile, the US Dollar was unsettled by the Harris proposal of price controls. Absence of first tier data on Monday’s calendar will leave the focus on bigger picture themes and flow.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 150.90 – 1 August high – Medium
• R1 149.40 – 15 August high – Strong
• S1 146.07 – 14 August low – Medium
• S2 145.43 – 8 August low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Nikkei has all but erased the post-BOJ rate hike losses and the return to stability in markets has opened broad based US Dollar outflows, which has invited renewed Yen demand. Absence of first tier data on Monday’s calendar will leave the focus on bigger picture themes and flow.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6744– 18 July high – Medium
• R2 0.6709 – 19 July high– Medium
• S1 0.6607 – 16 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6563 – 15 August low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewRisk appetite is looking healthy, commodities are well bid, and RBA Bullock has said it would be premature to consider rate cuts. With all that said, it’s been no surprise to see the Australian Dollar well bid. Absence of first tier data on Monday’s calendar will leave the focus on bigger picture themes and flow.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3766 – 8 August high – Medium
• R1 1.3739 – 15 August high – Medium
• S1 1.3620 – 15 July low – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has joined in on the currency gains against the Buck but has lagged notably. Downside pressure on the price of oil and a decline in Canada manufacturing sales have been behind the relative underperformance. Absence of first tier data on Monday’s calendar will leave the focus on bigger picture themes and flow.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6154 – 8 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6100 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.5974 – 15 August low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewRisk appetite is looking healthy again while the latest New Zealand manufacturing survey has put in an impressive rebound, all of which helping to drive an impressive run higher in the New Zealand Dollar. Absence of first tier data on Monday’s calendar will leave the focus on bigger picture themes and flow.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
• S1 5419 – 14 August low – Medium
• S2 5346 – 13 August low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2600 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2511 – 19 August/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

We’re back to talking about soft landings and a Goldilocks economy. First it was a softer run of US inflation data that helped to encourage the prospect for more investor friendly Fed policy going forward. Then it was the combination of hot and cold Thursday US data. US equities have raced higher as the week comes to a close.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/15auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Tracking to range resistance * GBPUSD Focused on topside * USDJPY Bullish resumption on cards * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Uptrend remains intact * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high ahead

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone productivity disappoints * GBPUSD Optimism runs high as UK imports up big * USDJPY Yield differentials out of Yen’s favor again * AUDUSD Aussie holds up on local fundamentals * USDCAD Canadian Dollar held back on soft sales * NZDUSD Kiwi lags in dovish RBNZ aftermath * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The 60/40 Portfolio: Bonds Are So Back, J. Kephart, Morningstar (August 12, 2024) * How to Predict a Recession, B. Carlson, AWCS* (August 13, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1100 – Figure – Strong

• R1 1.1048 – 14 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.0914 – 13 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0882 – 8 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewEurozone productivity has disappointed for the second straight quarter and the Euro has come back under some pressure as a consequence. Overall however, it’s been a productive week for the single currency, pushing to a yearly high on broad based US Dollar selling and an uptick in investor risk appetite. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK retail sales, Eurozone trade, Canada housing starts, foreign securities purchases, manufacturing sales, US housing starts, building permits, and Michigan sentiment.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2888 – 29 July high – Medium
• R1 1.2873 – 13 August high – Medium
• S1 1.2759 – 13 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2665 – 8 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK GDP came in as expected on Thursday, though there was plenty of support for the currency on optimism around a big imports component within the data. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK retail sales, Eurozone trade, Canada housing starts, foreign securities purchases, manufacturing sales, US housing starts, building permits, and Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 150.90 – 1 August high – Medium
• R1 149.78 – 2 August high – Medium
• S1 146.07 – 14 August low – Medium
• S2 145.43 – 8 August low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe latest impressive Japan growth data has validated the BOJ’s move to hike rates. Still, since the BOJ backed off the other week (no more rate hikes in the pipeline), the Yen has come back under pressure and has extended declines as yield differentials play back in the Buck’s favor. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK retail sales, Eurozone trade, Canada housing starts, foreign securities purchases, manufacturing sales, US housing starts, building permits, and Michigan sentiment.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6703– 22 July high – Medium
• R2 0.6643 – 14 August high– Medium
• S1 0.6563 – 15 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6507 – 8 August low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie consumer inflation expectations turned up this week, while Aussie employment data was solid. This along with broad based selling of the US Dollar on the back of overall softer inflation reads this week and a substantial uptick in risk sentiment have been behind the ongoing wave of sustained demand. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK retail sales, Eurozone trade, Canada housing starts, foreign securities purchases, manufacturing sales, US housing starts, building permits, and Michigan sentiment.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3791 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 1.3689 – 14 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3566 – 17 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar got a small Thursday boost from higher commodities prices, but was held back on softer economic data in the form of Canada wholesale sales and existing home sales. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK retail sales, Eurozone trade, Canada housing starts, foreign securities purchases, manufacturing sales, US housing starts, building permits, and Michigan sentiment.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6084 – 14 August high – Medium
• S1 0.5974 – 15 August low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has been a clear laggard since the RBNZ semi-surprised the market with a rate cut earlier this week. The fact that RBNZ governor Orr added that the central bank was even considering a 50 basis point cut has only added further to the downside pressure on the commodity currency. At the same time, setbacks have been supported on solid risk sentiment and broad based selling in the US Dollar post a softer round of US inflation data. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from UK retail sales, Eurozone trade, Canada housing starts, foreign securities purchases, manufacturing sales, US housing starts, building permits, and Michigan sentiment.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewThe longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5093, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a retest and break back above the record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5570 – 1 August high – Medium
• S1 5419 – 14 August low – Medium
• S2 5346 – 13 August low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Currencies are bid on the whole and US equities are looking for another positive open. Risk appetite has returned to markets after last week’s scare helped along by softer US inflation data and diffused tension in the Middle East.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/15auglmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

Some market participants may have been hoping for an even softer US CPI print on Wednesday. But the bottom line is that this week’s US inflation data was softer, with core CPI producing the fourth consecutive decline. The takeaway here is that the data backs up the pricing in of more Fed rate cuts than less in 2024.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/15auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Tracking to range resistance * GBPUSD Focused on topside * USDJPY Bullish resumption on cards * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Upside should be limited * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high ahead

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro runs to fresh yearly high * GBPUSD Pound underperforms on soft inflation * USDJPY Japan GDP produces impressive reading * AUDUSD Aussie extends on inflation, jobs data * USDCAD Caught between offsetting flows * NZDUSD Kiwi lags in dovish RBNZ aftermath * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Bull Market Isn’t Banking On Yen Carry Trade, Fisher Investments (August 12, 2024) * A Look Into What Recession Indicators Are Perhaps Saying, S. McBride, Risk Hedge* (August 12, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1100 – Figure – Strong

• R1 1.1048 – 14 August/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.0914 – 13 August low– Medium
• S2 1.0882 – 8 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro did a great job shrugging off a discouraging headline Eurozone industrial production print, instead focusing on underlying solid components within the data, decent GDP, and broad based US Dollar outflows on softer US inflation data this week. The rally has actually resulted in a fresh yearly high for the single currency against the Buck. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction output, Canada wholesale sales, and US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, the Philly Fed, industrial production, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2888 – 29 July high – Medium
• R1 1.2873 – 13 August high – Medium
• S1 1.2759 – 13 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2665 – 8 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound is coming out of a session of underperformance after taking in a round of softer UK inflation data. This has increased the odds for a BOE rate cut next month, which are approaching 50%. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction output, Canada wholesale sales, and US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, the Philly Fed, industrial production, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out over the coming sessions in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 149.78 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 147.91 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 143.62 – 6 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewPolitics have been front and center in Japan after the news broke Japan’s PM Kishida will not be running for the leadership of the LDP, which means we should see a new Prime Minister very soon. Meanwhile, Japan GDP data was impressive, coming in at its strongest in yearly growth in five years. However, this had little impact on the Yen. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction output, Canada wholesale sales, and US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, the Philly Fed, industrial production, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6703– 22 July high – Medium
• R2 0.6643 – 14 August high– Medium
• S1 0.6563 – 15 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6507 – 8 August low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie consumer inflation expectations turned up, while Aussie employment data was solid. This along with broad based selling of the US Dollar on the back of overall softer inflation reads this week, along with an uptick in risk sentiment have been behind the ongoing wave of demand. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction output, Canada wholesale sales, and US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, the Philly Fed, industrial production, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3791 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 1.3689 – 14 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3566 – 17 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar has been caught between offsetting flows. On the one side, the Canadian Dollar has been finding demand on higher equities and broad based US Dollar outflows post softer US inflation data. On the other side, the Canadian Dollar has been weighed down on a decline in commodities prices, highlighted by weakness in oil. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction output, Canada wholesale sales, and US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, the Philly Fed, industrial production, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6084 – 14 August high – Medium
• S1 0.5977 – 8 August low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has been a clear laggard since the RBNZ semi-surprised the market with a rate cut earlier this week. The fact that RBNZ governor Orr added that the central bank was even considering a 50 basis point cut has only added further to the downside pressure on the commodity currency. At the same time, setbacks have been supported on solid risk sentiment and broad based selling in the US Dollar post a softer round of US inflation data. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK GDP, industrial production, trade, and construction output, Canada wholesale sales, and US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, the Philly Fed, industrial production, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from January 2022 at 4820 before the market considers a resumption of the bigger picture uptrend. Look for rallies to be well capped below 5500.

• R2 5570 – 1 August high – Strong
• R1 5500 – Round Number – Medium
• S1 5326 – 12 August low – Medium
• S2 5157 – 8 August low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

The markets are still feeling good about Wednesday’s softer run of US producer prices and will be hoping this has set the stage for the same type of result in today’s US CPI read. Overall, currencies have been bid and US equities in demand.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/14auglmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

Investors will be hoping they get more of the same on Wednesday. We’re coming out of a positive Tuesday in which risk assets were well supported and currencies rallied across the board. The driving force behind the move has been the combination of softer US producer prices and a de-escalation in geopolitical tension.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/14auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Tracking to range resistance * GBPUSD Focused on topside * USDJPY Bullish resumption on cards * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Upside should be limited * GOLD (spot) Fresh record high ahead

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone jobs, GDP, industrial production * GBPUSD BOE cut odds come down after solid UK jobs * USDJPY Geopolitical risk dies down * AUDUSD Aussie up as risk sentiment improves * USDCAD Oil pullback slows Canadian Dollar rally * NZDUSD Kiwi hit hard after RBNZ cuts rates * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Slim Evidence Yen Carry Trade Caused Plunge, J. Calhoun, Alhambra (August 11, 2024) * Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ might be lying to you, G. Steer, FT* (August 12, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1046 – 2 January/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1010 – 5 August high – Medium
• S1 1.0850 – 31 July high– Medium
• S2 1.0778 – 1 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro took in another round of miserable data on Tuesday, this time in the form of German and Eurozone ZEW reads. However, the single currency was saved later in the day by a softer than expected US producer prices print which forced yield differentials out of the US Dollar’s favor and increased odds for more Fed rate cuts than less in 2024. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone employment, GDP, industrial production, and US CPI.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2888 – 29 July high – Medium
• R1 1.2873 – 13 August high – Medium
• S1 1.2759 – 13 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2665 – 8 August low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound got another nice boost on Tuesday after UK employment data came in better than expected, reducing odds for a BOE September rate cut. BOE rate cut odds in September have dropped to about 33% from 50% a week ago. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone employment, GDP, industrial production, and US CPI.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out over the coming sessions in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 149.78 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 147.91 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 143.62 – 6 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen failed to rally on hotter Japan inflation data, and failed to sell off on softer US producer prices. It seems the bigger focus right now is on the already established fact that overall, monetary policy is back to favoring the US Dollar in the equation given the BOJ’s recent communication that it won’t be looking to raise rates again any time soon. Meanwhile, the fact that worry around an Iran attack has faded into the background has helped to invite renewed demand for the major pair. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone employment, GDP, industrial production, and US CPI.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6703– 22 July high – Medium
• R2 0.6643 – 14 August high– Medium
• S1 0.6565 – 12 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6507 – 8 August low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has had the benefit of rallying on the back of softer US producer prices data and a de-escalation in tension around a possible Iran attack against Israel. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone employment, GDP, industrial production, and US CPI.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3703 – 14 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3566 – 17 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar managed to rally on Tuesday from the softer US producer prices, but lagged versus most of its peers on account of renewed downside pressure on the price of oil. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone employment, GDP, industrial production, and US CPI.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6084 – 14 August high – Medium
• S1 0.5977 – 8 August low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has taken a hard hit on Wednesday after the RBNZ semi-surprised the market with a rate cut. The fact that RBNZ governor Orr added that the central bank was even considering a 50 basis point rate cut only added further to the downside pressure on the commodity currency. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone employment, GDP, industrial production, and US CPI.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from January 2022 at 4820 before the market considers a resumption of the bigger picture uptrend. Look for rallies to be well capped below 5500.

• R2 5570 – 1 August high – Strong
• R1 5443 – 2 August high – Medium
• S1 5326 – 12 August low – Medium
• S2 5157 – 8 August low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Market conditions are rather dull in the heart of summer trade. We have seen some outperformance in the Pound after UK employment data came in better than expected. We’ve also already seen the first batch of US data for the day, in the form of a better than expected NFIB small business optimism print.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/13auglmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

We’re in the thick of the summer doldrums and markets have for the most part been confined to some tight consolidation trade. The economic calendar has been rather anemic as well, further contributing to the uneventful price action. We do however get a run of first-tier data from now through the end of week.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/13Auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Looking for next major low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone, German ZEW reads stand out * GBPUSD UK employment takes spotlight * USDJPY Sakurai backs up recent BOJ rhetoric * AUDUSD Commodities rally keeps Aussie supported * USDCAD Canada housing data down bad for second month * NZDUSD Attention turns to Wednesday’s RBNZ * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Retail Investors Just Lost a Poker Game to Institutions, J. Remsburg, InvestorPlace (August 10, 2024) * ‘Money Multiplier’ Theorists, or Warren Buffett, J. Tamny, Forbes* (August 11, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1046 – 2 January/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1010 – 5 August high – Medium
• S1 1.0850 – 31 July high– Medium
• S2 1.0778 – 1 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has traded sideways for the fourth day. Absence of first tier data and thin summer trade are accounting for the lackluster price action. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US producer prices, and Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.2665 – 8 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2613 – 27 June low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has enjoyed a nice recovery in recent sessions, getting a boost from bigger picture risk on flow and broad based US Dollar selling. The market has also been less worried about the social unrest in the UK, helping to calm nerves and benefit the local currency. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US producer prices, and Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out over the coming sessions in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 149.78 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 147.91 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 143.62 – 6 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewFormer BOJ board member Sakurai has backed up the recent rhetoric out from the BOJ, saying the central bank won’t be hiking again any time soon. The Yen has extended declines to the lowest levels since the central bank hiked the other week. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US producer prices, and Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6618– 24 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6606 – 9 August high– Medium
• S1 0.6472 – 6 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6349 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThings have been mostly quiet out there, though this latest impressive recovery in metals prices has helped Aussie to retain a bid. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US producer prices, and Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3716 – 12 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar underperformed on Monday after housing data was down big for the second month. The local rate market has begun to ptice in the possibility of a bigger 50 basis point rate hike in September (10% chance). Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US producer prices, and Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6049 – 19 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5977 – 8 August low– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has enjoyed a renewed wave of demand as investor risk appetite turns back up. At the same time, there has been concern from bulls on account of the latest cooling off in New Zealand inflation expectations, the slowest since Q1 2021. This puts market odds for a rate cut tomorrow at around 66%. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone and German ZEW reads, US producer prices, and Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from January 2022 at 4820 before the market considers a resumption of the bigger picture uptrend.

• R2 5443 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 5374 – 12 August high – Medium
• S1 5157 – 8 August low – Medium
• S2 5093 – 5 August low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

It’s been quite the departure from the price action we had seen one week ago at this time. A week ago, it was full on fear and panic. Today, markets are feeling better after absorbing last Monday’s selloff and have managed to keep the risk on flow going on a quiet calendar day.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/12auglmaxnex24.mp3

View Details

We remain in the thick of thin summer trade, something that must be taken into consideration when reflecting on price action. The market has done a good job overall recovering from last Monday’s panic mess and the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not all of that doom and gloom is behind us or just the start to another intense wave of risk off flow.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/12auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Looking for next major low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Outlook remains constructive * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German wholesale prices only data of note * GBPUSD Negative headwinds die down in UK * USDJPY Yen weakness resumes on BOJ communication * AUDUSD Weak iron ore a concern for Aussie * USDCAD Larger rate cut possibility on the table * NZDUSD RBNZ positioning starts to factor into price * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Buy The Dip? Or Embrace The Rotation?, L. Gave, Evergreen Gavekal (August 8, 2024) * The U.S. Cities With the Most International Visitors, D. Moreno, Luxury Link* (August 8, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1046 – 2 January/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1010 – 5 August high – Medium
• S1 1.0850 – 31 July high– Medium
• S2 1.0778 – 1 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThere hasn’t been much movement in the Euro in recent sessions, though what little economic data we have seen of late has leaned to the softer side. On Friday, French wages declines despite the expected benefit from the Olympics. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.2665 – 8 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2613 – 27 June low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound enjoyed a nice recovery into the end of last week, getting a boost from bigger picture risk on flow and broad based US Dollar selling. The market also seemed to be less worried about the social unrest in the UK, which helped to calm nerves and benefit the local currency. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out over the coming sessions in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 149.78 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 147.91 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 143.62 – 6 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewMost of the renewed Yen weakness has come from last week’s BOJ communication that the central bank won’t be looking to move away from accommodative policy despite the recent rate hike. The Yen was further sold on a renewed wave of risk appetite. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6618– 24 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6606 – 9 August high– Medium
• S1 0.6472 – 6 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6349 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar recovery stalled out into some technical resistance, while traders were also thrown off by a front-month iron ore contract closing out at its lowest level since April. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3718 – 9 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar held up rather well on Friday despite the discouraging Canada employment report. The local rate market has now begun to price in the 10% possibility for an even bigger 50 basis point rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting in early September. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6049 – 19 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6035 – 9 August high – Medium
• S1 0.5900 – Figure– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has enjoyed a renewed wave of demand as investor risk appetite turns back up. At the same time, there has been concern from bulls on account of the latest cooling off in New Zealand inflation expectations, the slowest since Q1 2021. This puts market odds for a rate cut this week well above 50%. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from January 2022 at 4820 before the market considers a resumption of the bigger picture uptrend.

• R2 5443 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 5362 – 9 August high – Medium
• S1 5093 – 5 August low – Medium
• S2 4928 – 19 April low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

A lot has changed since Monday. Markets had come under severe pressure on Monday on fear of a major slowdown in the global economy and on an escalation in geopolitical tension. Since then, the market has slowly recovered and even started to make its way back up.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/9auglmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Looking for next major low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Positioning for breakout * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German inflation data stands out on Friday * GBPUSD Pound recovers on broad based USD outflows * USDJPY Renewed risk appetite opens more Yen selling * AUDUSD Nice boost from hawkish RBA Bullock * USDCAD Canada jobs report takes center stage * NZDUSD Kiwi inflation expectations cool off * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Lessons For The U.S. From Japan’s Lost Decade, T. Savidge, Reason (August 6, 2024) * China’s Real Economic Crisis, Z. Liu, Foreign Affairs* (August 6, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1046 – 2 January/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1010 – 5 August high – Medium
• S1 1.0850 – 31 July high– Medium
• S2 1.0778 – 1 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewAbsence of first tier data out of the Eurozone on Thursday had the market still worrying about recent economic data that has been showing signs of a cool down in the economy. Setbacks were however mitigated by broad based US Dollar outflows on account of renewed risk on flow. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from China inflation, German inflation, and the Canada employment report.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.2665 – 8 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2613 – 27 June low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound enjoyed a nice recovery on Thursday, getting a boost from bigger picture risk on flow and broad based US Dollar selling. The market also seemed to be less worried about the social unrest in the UK, which helped to calm nerves and benefit the local currency. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from China inflation, German inflation, and the Canada employment report.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out over the coming sessions in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 149.78 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 147.91 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 143.62 – 6 August low – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewMost of the Thursday price action in the Yen was a carryover from Wednesday’s reaction in which the Yen sold off after the BOJ communication that the central bank wouldn’t be looking to move away from accommodative policy despite the recent rate hike. The Yen was further sold on a renewed wave of risk appetite. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from China inflation, German inflation, and the Canada employment report.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6618– 24 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6600 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6472 – 6 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6349 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar enjoyed a nice pop on the back of hawkish comments from RBA Bullock who said the central bank explicitly considered a rate hike this week and the RBA wouldn’t hesitate to raise rates going forward if needed. We also saw added demand as investor risk appetite returned. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from China inflation, German inflation, and the Canada employment report.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3721 – 7 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewAnother jump in the price of oil, broad based US Dollar selling, and renewed risk appetite were all behind the latest wave of demand for the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from China inflation, German inflation, and the Canada employment report.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6049 – 19 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6028 – 22 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5900 – Figure– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has enjoyed a renewed wave of demand as investor risk appetite turns back up. At the same time, there has been concern from bulls on account of the latest cooling off in New Zealand inflation expectations, the slowest since Q1 2021. This puts market odds for a rate cut next week at around 75%. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from China inflation, German inflation, and the Canada employment report.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from January 2022 at 4820 before the market considers a resumption of the bigger picture uptrend.

• R2 5443 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 5334 – 7 August high – Medium
• S1 5093 – 5 August low – Medium
• S2 4928 – 19 April low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Markets got a little relief on Tuesday. Unfortunately, most of that relief was simply about the bleeding slowing down rather than any clear catalysts to suggest investor risk appetite was turning back up.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/08/7auglmaxaudfio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Looking for next major low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Positioning for breakout * NZDUSD Signs of possible bottom * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro stalls on weak retail sales * GBPUSD Social unrest weighs heavy on Pound * USDJPY Wage data reaffirms recent BOJ decision * AUDUSD Aussie boosted on RBA’s hawkish tone * USDCAD Canada trade surplus well received * NZDUSD Kiwi extends recovery on NZ jobs beat * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Forest detectives are tackling the illegal wood trade, M. Speed, Financial Times (August 5, 2024) * Nigeria’s struggle to break the ‘oil curse’, J. Sinclair, Financial Times* (August 1, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.1046 – 2 January/2024 high – Strong

• R1 1.1010 – 5 August high – Medium
• S1 1.0850 – 31 July high– Medium
• S2 1.0778 – 1 August low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro struggled on Tuesday after taking a hit from poor sales data. Eurozone retail sales fell to 0.3% from 0.1% previous. Meanwhile, French Q2 private sector payrolls saw zero growth despite Olympics preparation. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Canada Ivey PMIs, and the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.2673 – 6 August low – Medium
• S2 1.2613 – 27 June low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewAn upswing in UK construction PMIs was overlooked, with the bigger focus on all of the social unrest. Meanwhile, the UK Chancellor has declined to rule out a capital gains tax hike. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Canada Ivey PMIs, and the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market has entered a period of correction after extending the uptrend to a multi-year high through 160.00. Critical support comes in around 140.00, with only a monthly close below the barrier to compromise the bullish outlook. A higher low is ideally sought out over the coming sessions in favor of a bullish continuation.

• R2 149.78 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 146.57 – 5 August high – Medium
• S1 143.00 – Figure – Medium
• S2 141.69 – 5 August low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewYen gains have stalled out for now after the currency had rocketed high in recent days. The risk off flow and massive carry unwind has clearly been the driving force behind the price action, after the Yen was already finding bids post the BOJ decision to raise rates. Still, recent wage data has reaffirmed the central bank’s decision to raise rates. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Canada Ivey PMIs, and the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6618– 24 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6583 – 25 July high – Strong
• S1 0.6472 – 6 August low– Medium
• S2 0.6349 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has enjoyed a nice recovery from the recent spike yearly low. The currency has been helped along by the latest RBA hold and hawkish communication. RBA Bullock said rate cuts weren’t on the agenda and no cuts were seen before year end. The market is less certain about this pricing 85% odds for a rate cut in December. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Canada Ivey PMIs, and the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations.

USDCAD – technical overviewA sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3757 – 6 August low – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar hasn’t been getting much help from global sentiment and oil prices of late. At the same time, we have seen some demand in recent sessions on the back of well received Canada trade data that produced a surplus in June. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Canada Ivey PMIs, and the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6028 – 22 July high – Strong
• R1 0.6000 – Psychological– Medium
• S1 0.5900 – Figure– Medium
• S2 0.5850 – 5 August/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar is getting a nice lift on Wednesday on the back of a better than expected round of New Zealand employment data. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Canada Ivey PMIs, and the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from January 2022 at 4820 before the market considers a resumption of the bigger picture uptrend.

• R2 5443 – 2 August high – Medium
• R1 5318 – 5 August high – Medium
• S1 5093 – 5 August low – Medium
• S2 4928 – 19 April low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks than what we’ve already seen.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

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Activity is already heating up on this Wednesday, with notable moves seen in the Yen and Australian Dollar. The Yen accelerated to the topside, extending its impressive recovery on the back of a surprisingly hawkish BOJ decision.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/31jullmaxnext24.mp3

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The economic calendar is going to heat up in a big way from now into the end of the week. We’ve got the BOJ and Fed decisions today along with other first tier economic data and month end flow. This will then be followed up by the Bank of England on Thursday and the US jobs report on Friday.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/31jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Uptrend firmly intact * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Downtrend remains intact * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German GDP comes out negative * GBPUSD Pound worrying about public finances * USDJPY Market absorbs latest BOJ decision * AUDUSD Aussie struggles with soft housing data * USDCAD No love for Canadian Dollar right now * NZDUSD Kiwi gets a boost from extended readings * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Will a Japanese Fire Sale Crash Treasury Debt?, E.J. Antoni, The Heritage Foundation (July 26, 2024) * Great Rotation Is Real, But Does It Make Sense?, J. Calhoun, Alhambra Investments* (July 26, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 530 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro was discouraged on Tuesday with French data that showed very little bump from the Olympics. Meanwhile, German GDP came out in negative territory to add to the strain. The only saving grace for the single currency was an uptick in German inflation, which helped to mitigate the fallout. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Aussie inflation, China manufacturing PMIs, the BOJ policy decision, German unemployment, Eurozone inflation, US ADP employment, Canada GDP, Chicago PMIs, pending home sales, and the Fed policy decision.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Medium
• R1 1.2889 – 29 July high – Strong
• S1 1.2807 – 29 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2778 – 9 July low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has been struggling with the latest headlines around the new UK government revealing a dismal state of public finances. The budget gap is likely to be filled with higher taxes and odds for a BOE rate cut this week have inched up above 50%. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Aussie inflation, China manufacturing PMIs, the BOJ policy decision, German unemployment, Eurozone inflation, US ADP employment, Canada GDP, Chicago PMIs, pending home sales, and the Fed policy decision.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.86, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 157.87 – 19 July high – Strong
• R1 156.00 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 152.00 – Figure – Medium
• S2 151.86 – 3 May low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe market will spend much of the day and coming sessions absorbing the latest BOJ decision. The expectation is that the central bank will go ahead and raise rates. However, with real wages still negative, the local economy at risk, and the Yen having rallied quite a bit in recent weeks, it’s possible this will set up as either a rate hold, or a sell the Yen on the fact once the rate hike is out of the way. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Aussie inflation, China manufacturing PMIs, the BOJ policy decision, German unemployment, Eurozone inflation, US ADP employment, Canada GDP, Chicago PMIs, pending home sales, and the Fed policy decision.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6703 – 22 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6507 – 25 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6465 – 1 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThere wasn’t much movement in the Australian Dollar on Tuesday, though the currency did struggle with discouraging Aussie housing data. June building approvals came in at -6.5% versus -2.3% expected. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Aussie inflation, China manufacturing PMIs, the BOJ policy decision, German unemployment, Eurozone inflation, US ADP employment, Canada GDP, Chicago PMIs, pending home sales, and the Fed policy decision.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3865 – 29 July/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3756 – 2 July high – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar slid to a fresh yearly low against the Buck on Monday, still struggling with faltering US equities, a dovish Bank of Canada, weaker local data, and softer commodities prices. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Aussie inflation, China manufacturing PMIs, the BOJ policy decision, German unemployment, Eurozone inflation, US ADP employment, Canada GDP, Chicago PMIs, pending home sales, and the Fed policy decision.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5982 – 23 July high – Strong
• R1 0.5958 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5858 – 29 July low– Medium
• S2 0.5852 – 19 April/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewA soft run of Kiwi data along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices and disruption in US equities has proven to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar in recent days. We have however seen some relief, most probably driven on overextended technicals. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Aussie inflation, China manufacturing PMIs, the BOJ policy decision, German unemployment, Eurozone inflation, US ADP employment, Canada GDP, Chicago PMIs, pending home sales, and the Fed policy decision.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
• S1 5398 – 25 July low – Medium
• S2 5352 – 23 May high – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

We’re seeing plenty of tight trade in financial markets on this Tuesday thus far. It’s clear, investors don’t want to make any big decisions until a batch of major central bank event risk is out of the way.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/30jullmaxnext24.mp3

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We’re coming out of a relatively quiet Monday session of trade. Overall, we’re seeing some attempts at a recovery in risk assets, though it’s been a tough and slow go thus far. The US Dollar has been in the driver’s seat as global sentiment remains subdued.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/30jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Bounces into critical support * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Downtrend remains intact * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro stressed about GDP, inflation * GBPUSD Ugly looking UK CBI sales number * USDJPY BOJ rate hike pricing comes down * AUDUSD Aussie inflation data due Wednesday * USDCAD No love for Canadian Dollar right now * NZDUSD Risk-off flow hitting Kiwi hard * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading How An AI “Bot War” Destroyed the Online Job Market, J. Tauke, Salon (July 28, 2024) * Tech Dip Reminds That Volatility Cuts Both Ways, Fisher Investments* (July 26, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has been worrying about the potential for more softness in what has already been a soft run of data in recent days. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Japan unemployment, Aussie building permits, German GDP, German inflation reads, Eurozone GDP, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, US Case Shiller, house prices, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2807 – 29 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2778 – 9 July low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK CBI sales numbers weren’t pretty, the new government is looking to raise taxes, and the market has been thinking a lot more about a BOE rate cut later this week. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Japan unemployment, Aussie building permits, German GDP, German inflation reads, Eurozone GDP, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, US Case Shiller, house prices, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.86, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 157.87 – 19 July high – Strong
• R1 156.00 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 153.11 – 24 July low – Medium
• S2 151.86 – 3 May low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThere are still many Yen shorts caught in trapped carry trades, though we have seen some signs of renewed Yen weakness after a very healthy recovery rally. Attention turns to this week’s BOJ decision which is pricing a little more than a 50% chance for a rate hike. This pricing has come down but could still be aggressive when considering the BOJ’s track record. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Japan unemployment, Aussie building permits, German GDP, German inflation reads, Eurozone GDP, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, US Case Shiller, house prices, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6703 – 22 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6507 – 25 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6465 – 1 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe commodities sector remains under pressure and Chinese equities have struggled. However, the Australian Dollar was able to snap a 9 day losing streak against the Buck this past Friday, getting help from a recovery in US equities. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Japan unemployment, Aussie building permits, German GDP, German inflation reads, Eurozone GDP, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, US Case Shiller, house prices, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3865 – 29 July/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3756 – 2 July high – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar slid to a fresh yearly low against the Buck on Monday, still struggling with faltering US equities, a dovish Bank of Canada, weaker local data, and softer commodities prices. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Japan unemployment, Aussie building permits, German GDP, German inflation reads, Eurozone GDP, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, US Case Shiller, house prices, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5982 – 23 July high – Strong
• R1 0.5958 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5858 – 29 July low– Medium
• S2 0.5852 – 19 April/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewA soft run of Kiwi data along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices and disruption in US equities has proven to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Japan unemployment, Aussie building permits, German GDP, German inflation reads, Eurozone GDP, Eurozone confidence and sentiment reads, US Case Shiller, house prices, JOLTs job openings, and consumer confidence.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
• S1 5398 – 25 July low – Medium
• S2 5352 – 23 May high – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

As the week gets going, we’re pretty much staring at a market in the same position we were in to close out the previous week. Risk appetite has picked up, commodities are trying to find a bottom, and currencies are doing their best to bounce after a healthy period of US Dollar demand.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/29jullmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

Global markets will try their best to get into a better mood after contending with a tough wave of risk off flow in the previous week. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and CBI trades, along with Dallas Fed manufacturing.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/29jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Bounces into critical support * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Downtrend remains intact * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro gets boost from hawkish ECB Schnabel * GBPUSD UK government to approve pay hikes * USDJPY All eyes on this week’s BOJ decision * AUDUSD Aussie snaps 9-day losing streak * USDCAD Discouraging Canada wholesale sales * NZDUSD Risk-off flow hits Kiwi hard * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading China, Russia, and Other Global Economic Hot Spots, J. Bahnsen, National Review (July 25, 2024) * What 2nd Qtr. GDP Says About Investor Sentiment, Fisher Investments* (July 25, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro was up modestly at the end of last week on the back of a hawkish round of ECB comments. ECB Schnabel warned of sticky inflation from wages, freight costs, and protectionism. The central banker also added that one cut didn’t mean more cuts were coming. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and CBI trades, along with Dallas Fed manufacturing.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2818 – 4 June high – Medium
• S2 1.2778 – 9 July low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe UK government is set to approve above-inflation pay hikes for the public sector. The Chancellor has also acknowledged the funding gap, and the expectation is that there will be higher taxes. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and CBI trades, along with Dallas Fed manufacturing.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.86, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 157.87 – 19 July high – Strong
• R1 156.00 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 153.11 – 24 July low – Medium
• S2 151.86 – 3 May low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThere are still many Yen shorts caught in trapped carry trades, though we have seen some signs of renewed Yen weakness after a very healthy recovery rally. Attention turns to this week’s BOJ decision which is pricing about a 66% chance for a rate hike. Still, this pricing could be a little aggressive when considering the BOJ’s track record when it comes to hawkish moves. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and CBI trades, along with Dallas Fed manufacturing.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6703 – 22 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6507 – 25 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6465 – 1 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe metals sector remains under pressure and Chinese equities have struggled. However, the Australian Dollar was able to snap a 9 day losing streak against the Buck, getting help from a recovery in US equities. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and CBI trades, along with Dallas Fed manufacturing.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3850 – 26 July/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3756 – 2 July high – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar slid to a fresh yearly low against the Buck on Friday, still struggling with lower US equities, a BoC rate cut and dovish communication, and softer commodities prices. Discouraging Canada wholesale sales only further contributed to the weakness. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and CBI trades, along with Dallas Fed manufacturing.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5982 – 23 July high – Strong
• R1 0.5958 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5874 – 1 May low– Medium
• S2 0.5852 – 19 April/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewLast week’s distressing New Zealand trade data along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices and downturn in US equities proved to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from UK consumer credit, mortgage approvals, and CBI trades, along with Dallas Fed manufacturing.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
• S1 5398 – 25 July low – Medium
• S2 5352 – 23 May high – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

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There’s been no let-up in global growth worries this week and risk off price action has intensified as best reflected through more weakness in US equities. The latest concerns come from discouraging US earnings, ineffective China monetary policy easing efforts, and distressing data out of the Eurozone and UK.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/25jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Setbacks should be limited * USDJPY Bounces into critical support * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Downtrend remains intact * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro manages to shrug off latest soft data * GBPUSD BOE cut odds jump after awful CBI reads * USDJPY BOJ rate July hike odds sit up at 70% * AUDUSD Aussie struggles with macro headwinds * USDCAD Oil recovery slows Canadian Dollar decline * NZDUSD Risk-off flow hits Kiwi hard * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading 3 Financial Fallacies I’ve Had to Unlearn, J. Rekenthaler, Morningstar (July 23, 2024) * The Death of the Dollar (in Perspective), C. Roche, Discipline Funds* (July 23, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewEuro area data was broadly soft on Thursday highlighted by German Ifo declines and disappointing French consumer confidence. Nevertheless, healthy bids from medium and longer-term players more than offset downside from the data letdowns. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Japan CPI, Eurozone consumer inflation expectations, Canada wholesale sales, US core PCE, US personal income and spending, and Michigan sentiment.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2818 – 4 June high – Medium
• S2 1.2778 – 9 July low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThursday’s round of UK CBI data was awful and the Pound reacted accordingly, coming under a good deal of pressure. Total orders sunk to -32 from -18 previous and -20 expected. Selling prices dropped to a post-pandemic low and business optimism declined to -9 from +9. Odds for an August BOE rate cut jumped to around 50% from 40%. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Japan CPI, Eurozone consumer inflation expectations, Canada wholesale sales, US core PCE, US personal income and spending, and Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.86, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 157.87 – 19 July high – Strong
• R1 156.00 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 153.11 – 24 July low – Medium
• S2 151.86 – 3 May low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewOdds for a BOJ rate hike next week still sit up around 70%, though after seeing the Yen rally so sharply on the back of a massive carry unwind, we suspect these odds could come down between now and next week’s decision. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Japan CPI, Eurozone consumer inflation expectations, Canada wholesale sales, US core PCE, US personal income and spending, and Michigan sentiment.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6703 – 22 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6507 – 25 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6465 – 1 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has extended declines for the ninth day on the back of softer Aussie data, distressed metals, China markets in decline despite BOE easing attempts, and US equities faltering. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Japan CPI, Eurozone consumer inflation expectations, Canada wholesale sales, US core PCE, US personal income and spending, and Michigan sentiment.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3849 – 25 July/2024 high – Medium
• S1 1.3756 – 2 July high – Medium
• S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar slid to a fresh yearly low against the Buck on Thursday, still struggling with lower US equities and this week’s BoC rate cut and dovish communication. However, setbacks could have been a lot worse were it not for a nice recovery in the price of oil. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Japan CPI, Eurozone consumer inflation expectations, Canada wholesale sales, US core PCE, US personal income and spending, and Michigan sentiment.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5982 – 23 July high – Strong
• R1 0.5958 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5874 – 1 May low– Medium
• S2 0.5852 – 19 April/2024 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s distressing New Zealand trade data along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices and downturn in US equities have proven to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Japan CPI, Eurozone consumer inflation expectations, Canada wholesale sales, US core PCE, US personal income and spending, and Michigan sentiment.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
• S1 5398 – 25 July low – Medium
• S2 5352 – 23 May high – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2350 – 4 July low – Strong
• S2 2287– 7 June low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

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Concerns around the health and outlook for the global economy have intensified amidst softer economic data, downbeat US earnings, and ineffective accommodative central bank moves. Looking ahead, more volatility is expected as the market takes in US durable goods, GDP, and initial jobless claims. We’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/25jullmaxnext24.mp3

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Global sentiment has turned decidedly negative and risk off flow has intensified in financial markets. The Dollar and other currencies like the Franc and Yen that benefit in risk off environments have been rallying, while the rest of the currency market struggles.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/25jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Looking for next higher low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Another round of discouraging data out of the Zone * GBPUSD UK PMIs impress, GBP outperforms * USDJPY Japan services PMI rises into expansion territory * AUDUSD Aussie struggles with macro headwinds * USDCAD Bank of Canada cuts rates and flags more cuts ahead * NZDUSD Risk-off flow hits Kiwi hard * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Economy Is Cooling, and That’s Good News, S. Hansen, Morningstar (July 19, 2024) * The Economic Pessimism Of Gen-Z, M. Peterson, AIER* (July 23, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has been a victim of an intense downturn in sentiment coupled with downbeat PMI data. Eurozone, German, and French PMIs were all disappointing on Wednesday. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI, US durable goods, GDP, and initial jobless claims.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2877 – 24 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK PMIs were solid and stood in sharp contrast to struggling Eurozone reads, which ended up translating to GBP outperformance. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI, US durable goods, GDP, and initial jobless claims.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.86, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 157.87 – 19 July high – Strong
• R1 156.00 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 153.11 – 24 July low – Medium
• S2 151.86 – 3 May low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewJapan services PMIs rose into expansion territory, carry trade unwind continued as US stocks dumped, and odds for a BOJ hike next week rose to 75% from what had been even money earlier this week. All of this translated to another round of Yen outperformance. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI, US durable goods, GDP, and initial jobless claims.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6703 – 22 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6576 – 10 June low– Medium
• S2 0.6558 – 8 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has extended declines for the eight day on the back of softer Aussie PMIs, distressed metals, China markets in decline, and US equities faltering. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI, US durable goods, GDP, and initial jobless claims.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3817 – 24 July high – Medium
• S1 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThere was no surprise in seeing the Canadian Dollar extend declines towards yearly lows amidst all the negative sentiment in global markets and after the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada noted downside risks to the economy while saying it was reasonable to expect more cuts. There is currently a 66% chance for a rate cut in September. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI, US durable goods, GDP, and initial jobless claims.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6154 – 8 July high – Strong
• R1 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5914 – 24 July low– Medium
• S2 0.5900 – Figure – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s distressing trade data along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices and downturn in US equities have proven to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German Ifo reads, UK CBI, US durable goods, GDP, and initial jobless claims.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
• R1 5593 – 23 July high – Medium
• S1 5426 – 24 July low – Medium
• S2 5352 – 23 May high – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite a much bigger disruption to stocks.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2384 – 22 July high – Strong
• S2 2350– July 4 low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

https://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/24jullmaxaudio.mp3

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It’s not a pretty picture out there right now. The US Dollar has been broadly bid, with the exception of the other two currencies that benefit from flight to safety flow – those being the Yen and Swiss Franc.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/24jullmaxnext24.mp3

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We’ve been seeing signs of elevated stress in the global financial system. Commodities prices have been hit hard, particularly the growth correlated pro-cyclicals. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been broadly bid.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/24jullmaxaudio-1.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Confined to major range * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Looking for next higher low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot)Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Sovereign bond yields widen out * GBPUSD Pound finds relative strength on French uncertainty * USDJPY Yen up on carry unwind, rate hike odds * AUDUSD Commodities slide punishing Australian Dollar * USDCAD BoC decision stands out on Wednesday docket * NZDUSD Risk-off flow hits Kiwi hard * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Holy Grail of Investing?, S. McBride, RiskHedge (July 22, 2024) * Why Israel Is Poised To Lead Artificial Int. Revolution, H. Rom, RCM* (July 18, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro extended declines on Tuesday as sovereign bond yields widened out. Eurozone consumer confidence wasn’t as bad as expected but didn’t help to bolster the Euro much at all. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, Canada housing data, Canada manufacturing sales, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US PMIs and new home sales, and Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2888– 23 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThere weren’t too many market moving headlines out of the UK on Tuesday, though we did see the Pound hold up relatively well in the face of broad based Dollar demand, perhaps getting some help on safe haven flow away from the Euro amidst French political uncertainty. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, Canada housing data, Canada manufacturing sales, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US PMIs and new home sales, and Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
• R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
• S1 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium
• S2 154.55 – 4 June low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overviewA large carry trade unwind via Aussie and Mexican Peso sales against the Yen, along with increased odds for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the month were behind the latest run of Yen demand. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, Canada housing data, Canada manufacturing sales, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US PMIs and new home sales, and Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
• R2 0.6703 – 22 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6600 – Figure– Medium
• S2 0.6576 – 10 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar continues to get hit hard on the back of a massive commodities slide and downside pressure in US equities. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from Aussie PMIs, German consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, Canada housing data, Canada manufacturing sales, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US PMIs and new home sales, and Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThis week’s Bank of Canada survey revealed a sharp rise in anxiety over taxes and regulation. Meanwhile, lower commodities prices are also weighing on the correlated Canadian Dollar. Odds for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada later today sit at greater than 90%. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, Canada housing data, Canada manufacturing sales, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US PMIs and new home sales, and Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6154 – 8 July high – Strong
• R1 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5942 – 3 May low– Medium
• S2 0.5900 – Figure – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s distressing trade data along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices and downturn in US equities have proven to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from German consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, Canada housing data, Canada manufacturing sales, the Bank of Canada policy decision, US PMIs and new home sales, and Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5679 – 16 July/Record high– Strong
• S1 5501 – 19 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2384 – 22 July high – Strong
• S2 2350– July 4 low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

https://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/24jullmaxaudio.mp3

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Currency and equity markets are in disagreement on this Tuesday. For the most part, currencies are lower across the board against the Buck, suggesting a move towards a reduction in risk appetite, while US equity futures point higher, reflecting a more upbeat vibe.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/23jullmaxnext24.mp3

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Markets were all over the place on Monday. US equities put in a decent recovery, though this did nothing to help beaten down commodity FX, with the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar all getting hammered.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/23jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Looking for next higher low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot)Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Eurozone consumer confidence ahead * GBPUSD Pound worrying new government plans * USDJPY BOJ officials lock heads over next policy move * AUDUSD Commodities slide punishing Australian Dollar * USDCAD Canadians anxious about taxes, regulation * NZDUSD New Zealand trade data ugly beneath the surface * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading What If We’re Incorrect, That The Rally’s Just Starting?, S. McBride, RiskHedge (July 15, 2024) * The Folly of Certainty, H. Marks, Oaktree Capital* (July 17, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro held steady on Monday in an exceptionally thin calendar day. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone consumer confidence, US existing home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2901 – 19 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound may be struggling a little with some questions around confidence in the new government. The BOE is set to cast doubt on the government’s rosy economic targets, while there has also been worry around an underbudgeting of raises for teachers and healthcare workers. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone consumer confidence, US existing home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
• R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
• S1 156.00 – Figure – Medium
• S2 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewOdds for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the month stand at about 50% as officials battle over worry around weak spending and the need for more data, versus risks of missing a window of opportunity for a rate hike. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone consumer confidence, US existing home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6631 – 22 July low – Medium
• S2 0.6620 – 28 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe China rate cut did very little to inspire any demand for the Australian Dollar, which has since come under intense pressure as commodities prices slide. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone consumer confidence, US existing home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe latest Bank of Canada survey has revealed a sharp rise in anxiety over taxes and regulation. Meanwhile, lower commodities prices are also weighing on the correlated Canadian Dollar. Odds for a Wednesday rate cut from the Bank of Canada sit at greater than 90%. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone consumer confidence, US existing home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6154 – 8 July high – Strong
• R1 0.6098 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 0.5942 – 3 May low– Medium
• S2 0.5900 – Figure – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewOn the surface, New Zealand trade data produced a solid headline reading. However, at closer glance, the underlying components were distressing, with both imports and exports declining outright. This along with an ongoing slide in commodities prices proved to be a big weight on the New Zealand Dollar. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone consumer confidence, US existing home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5679 – 16 July/Record high– Strong
• S1 5501 – 19 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2384 – 22 July high – Strong
• S2 2350– July 4 low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

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We haven’t seen all that much movement in markets as the new week gets going, though the bleeding has stopped at least for a moment when it comes to US equities. On the currency side, the Dollar has been under pressure against the majors, but remains well bid against the commodity currencies.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/22jullmaxnext24.mp3

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As the week gets going, the market will be contending with the latest bout of risk off flow which saw US equities reverse sharply off record highs. The flight to safety intensified in the latter portion of the previous week and Dollar demand picked up as well.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/22jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Looking for next higher low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot)Well supported on dips

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German producer prices invite demand * GBPUSD More GBP selling on weak UK retail sales * USDJPY BOJ rate hike odds cool off post Japan CPI * AUDUSD Copper down 17% over past two months * USDCAD Canada retail sales come in below forecast * NZDUSD Kiwi hit as sentiment deteriorates * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Three Big Things Happening in the US Economy, S. Varghese, Carson Group (July 18, 2024) * Donald Trump Versus the US Dollar, A. Rajadhyaksha, Financial Times* (July 19, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro is trying to find its footing after a dovish ECB decision. Friday’s round of hotter than expected German producer prices have certainly contributed to the support for the single currency into dips. Monday’s economic calendar is exceptionally thin with only the Chicago Fed national activity index standing out.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2902 – 12 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has come under some pressure after last week’s cooler UK wages data and discouraging UK retail sales print. Odds for an August BOE rate cut have pushed back up as a consequence. Monday’s economic calendar is exceptionally thin with only the Chicago Fed national activity index standing out.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
• R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
• S1 156.00 – Figure – Medium
• S2 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewOdds for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the month have now cooled off to around 45% from 60% a week ago. The latest softer than expected Japan core CPI read could be factoring into the renewed Yen selling. Monday’s economic calendar is exceptionally thin with only the Chicago Fed national activity index standing out.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6665 – 3 July low – Medium
• S2 0.6620 – 28 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewIt’s been a tough stretch for the Australian Dollar with the currency suffering from struggling Chinese markets, sliding copper, and a downturn in US equities. Monday’s economic calendar is exceptionally thin with only the Chicago Fed national activity index standing out.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar sold off into the end of last week on a Canada retail sales miss and intense bearish performance in the price of oil. The slide in US equities did nothing to help the Canadian Dollar’s cause either. Monday’s economic calendar is exceptionally thin with only the Chicago Fed national activity index standing out.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6154 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6000 – Psychological– Medium
• S2 0.5981 – 8 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewMost of the latest round of setbacks in the New Zealand Dollar have been attributed to the downturn in US equities and global sentiment. Monday’s economic calendar is exceptionally thin with only the Chicago Fed national activity index standing out.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5679 – 16 July/Record high– Strong
• S1 5501 – 19 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2388 – 7 June high – Strong
• S2 2350– July 4 low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Investors have become more distressed into the end of the week, and this distressed sentiment has translated to some very clear risk off flow opening renewed demand for the US Dollar and downside pressure on US equities.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/19jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Looking for next higher low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction underway * GOLD (spot) Record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD ECB sets stage for September cut * GBPUSD UK wages cool off and weigh on Pound * USDJPY Japan CPI data digested on Friday * AUDUSD Aussie lower despite solid jobs report * USDCAD Canada retail sales, producer prices on tap * NZDUSD Kiwi hit as sentiment deteriorates * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Who Killed the ESG Party?, D. Garrahan, Financial Times (July 17, 2024) * Insights on Stocks, Bonds & The Economy, D. Sekera, Morningstar* (July 15, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe ECB decision leaned to the dovish side and the Euro took a clear hit in the aftermath. The central bank set the stage for a September rate cut, while talking lower inflation and risks tilted to the downside on growth. Market odds for a September cut have jumped to about 80%. Meanwhile, Eurozone construction output didn’t help matters after falling to the lowest level since February 2021. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK retail sales and public borrowing, the Eurozone current account, Canada retail sales and producer prices, and a round of Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2938 – 16 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewUK unemployment held steady, but a cooling off in wages was enough to turn heads and force a repricing of GBP bets, with the UK currency cooling off in the aftermath. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK retail sales and public borrowing, the Eurozone current account, Canada retail sales and producer prices, and a round of Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
• R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
• S1 156.00 – Figure – Medium
• S2 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewIt feels like the Yen has run about as much as it can right now, after enjoying a multi-session recovery. The market’s attention has shifted back to yield differentials that continue to lean in the Buck’s favor. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from Japan CPI, German producer prices, UK retail sales and public borrowing, the Eurozone current account, Canada retail sales and producer prices, and a round of Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6665 – 3 July low – Medium
• S2 0.6620 – 28 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar tried as hard as it could to hold up on Thursday after taking in a better than expected jobs report. However, it was a wave of risk off flow that could not be ignored, which ultimately forced the currency lower on the day. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK retail sales and public borrowing, the Eurozone current account, Canada retail sales and producer prices, and a round of Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewCommodities have been under pressure in recent sessions, all while Canada economic data has been struggling on the whole. We’ve also now seen a downturn in US equities, and all of this has been weighing on the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK retail sales and public borrowing, the Eurozone current account, Canada retail sales and producer prices, and a round of Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6154 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6033 – 17 July low– Medium
• S2 0.5981 – 8 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewMost of the latest round of setbacks in the New Zealand Dollar have been attributed to the downturn in US equities and global sentiment. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German producer prices, UK retail sales and public borrowing, the Eurozone current account, Canada retail sales and producer prices, and a round of Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5679 – 16 July/Record high– Strong
• S1 5529 – 18 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2388 – 7 June high – Strong
• S2 2350– July 4 low – Medium

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Later today we’ll get the always anticipated ECB policy decision and President Lagarde presser. On balance, we really don’t expect all that much volatility when considering the overwhelming consensus that there will be no change to policy.

Special Report Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/18jullmaxspecial.mp3

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Most of the attention in recent sessions has been around comments from Donald Trump that the US has a big currency problem, and that the stronger US Dollar is hurting the US when it comes to competition with other trading partners.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/18jullmaxaudio2.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Looking for next higher low * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction imminent * GOLD (spot) Record high territory

Fundamental highlights EURUSD ECB decision comes into focus * GBPUSD Sticky inflation pushes Pound to fresh high * USDJPY Yen shorts squeezed on Trump comments * AUDUSD Aussie finds more selling as US equities roll over * USDCAD Canadian Dollar setbacks mitigated on oil bounce * NZDUSD Kiwi holds up as RBNZ rate cut odds come down * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Who Killed the ESG Party?, D. Garrahan, Financial Times (July 17, 2024) * The gravity of US stock leadership, T. Nangle, FT Alphaville* (July 12, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0949 – 17 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has extended its run, mostly on the back of the latest broad based selling in the US Dollar on the back of Trump’s comments about a stronger US Dollar hurting competitiveness. The market will now start positioning into today’s ECB decision where no change is expected. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone construction output, the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, and some Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3100 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.3045 – 17 July/2024 high – Strong
• S1 1.2938 – 16 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has extended its run of yearly and multi-month highs after UK inflation data came out hotter than expected. Odds for a BOE rate cut in August have now plunged to below 40% from near 70% ten days ago. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone construction output, the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, and some Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
• R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
• S1 156.06 – 17 July low – Medium
• S2 155.72 – 12 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewDonald Trump has been doing a favor (at least for now) for Japanese officials concerned about excessive weakness in the Yen. The latest comments from Trump have him concerned about a stronger Dollar hurting competitiveness. Some Yen shorts have been forced to reconsider bearish bets in the aftermath, especially with Trump leading in the polls. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone construction output, the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, and some Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6703 – 4 July low – Medium
• S2 0.6620 – 28 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewPro-cyclical commodities remain weak and US equities have turned south. All of this has been weighing on the risk correlated Australian Dollar. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone construction output, the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, and some Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar got some relief from a nice recovery in the price of oil, but couldn’t avoid trading lower after Donald Trump put all US trading partners on notice. This weighed on stocks as well, which in turn weighed on the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone construction output, the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, and some Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6154 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6033 – 17 July low– Medium
• S2 0.5981 – 8 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has held up exceptionally well in the face of this latest reversal in risk assets. We believe a lot of this could have to do with some sticky components within the latest New Zealand inflation data that have reduced odds for a rate cut in August. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from UK employment, Eurozone construction output, the ECB policy decision, US initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, and some Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5679 – 16 July/Record high– Strong
• S1 5583 – 10 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2484 – 17 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Wednesday price action has been difficult to reconcile. Currencies have been better bid against the US Dollar, all while US equity futures head south, giving off a completely different vibe.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/17jullmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

It would be easy to look at the performance in the gold market and think broader commodities prices are surging. But that has not been the case. The strength in the gold market to fresh record highs is more indicative of a global economy in worry.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/17jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Well supported on dips * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction imminent * GOLD (spot) Outlook constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro holds up despite weak German ZEW * GBPUSD Pound slows down ahead of inflation data * USDJPY Yen back under pressure post tertiary index * AUDUSD Slumping industrial metals hit Aussie * USDCAD BoC July cut odds jump to 90% * NZDUSD Kiwi inflation data digested * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Business of Boxing, C. Justin, Financial Times (July 15, 2024) * Stocks Don’t Need a Wall of New Money To Rise, E. Dellinger, Fisher Investments* (July 15, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0923 – 15 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro did a great job holding up into weakness on the back of another soft round of data, this time from a much weaker than expected German ZEW. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, Canada foreign securities purchases, US building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed Beige Book.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3042 – 19 July 2023 high – Medium
• R1 1.2996 – 27 July 2023 high – Strong
• S1 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium
• S2 1.2778 – 9 July low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewTuesday was all about consolidation trade for the Pound, with the currency not wanting to get ahead of itself before taking in today’s highly anticipated round of inflation data. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, Canada foreign securities purchases, US building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed Beige Book.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 161.96 – 3 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Strong
• R1 160.26 – 8 July low – Medium
• S1 157.16 – 15 July low – Medium
• S2 155.72 – 12 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen was back under pressure on Tuesday after a number of sessions of strength helped along by the headlines around the BOJ checking rates. But sour data out of Japan on Tuesday was too much to ignore as reflected through the May tertiary index. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, Canada foreign securities purchases, US building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed Beige Book.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6703 – 4 July low – Medium
• S2 0.6620 – 28 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe industrial metals and miners have been hit hard, despite record high prices in gold. This has been a hard pill for the Australian Dollar to swallow in recent sessions. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, Canada foreign securities purchases, US building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed Beige Book.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar continues to struggle, taking its hits from softer data and lower oil prices. On the data front, Canada inflation and housing starts came in softer than expected. Odds for a July 24th BoC rate cut have now jumped to 90% from what had been 50% at the start of the month. Key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, Canada foreign securities purchases, US building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed Beige Book.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6154 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6036 – 16 July low– Medium
• S2 0.5981 – 8 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has struggled along with its Aussie cousin, while also now needing to digest the latest batch of New Zealand inflation data which came in softer but was offset by an upward revision. Looking ahead, key standouts on Wednesday’s calendar for the remainder of the day come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, Canada foreign securities purchases, US building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed Beige Book.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5679 – 16 July/Record high– Strong
• S1 5583 – 10 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2200 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2500 – Psychological– Strong
• R1 2470 – 16 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

As we come into the North American session on this Tuesday, we’re looking at some choppy price action across the board. On the one hand, the major currencies haven’t done much but have been relatively well supported on dips against the US Dollar.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/16jullmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

There were plenty of worrying signs on Monday. The US yield curve narrowed as recession worries grew. We saw a healthy GDP miss out of China, and some more data misses out of Europe including an abysmal Eurozone industrial production print.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/15jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on 2023 high * USDJPY Well supported on dips * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction imminent * GOLD (spot) Outlook constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro stalls on soft EZ industrial production * GBPUSD Pound slows down ahead of inflation data * USDJPY Yen demand cools as rate checking digested * AUDUSD China GDP miss hits Australian Dollar * USDCAD BoC survey fuels more Canadian Dollar selling * NZDUSD Kiwi hit on dreadful housing number * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading AI will eventually destroy almost every job that now exists, R. Rahn, The Washington Times (July 8, 2024) * Take Profits in Apple Stock Before AI Hype Runs Its Course, L. Navellier, InvestorPlace* (July 8, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0982 – 8 March high – Strong

• R1 1.0923 – 15 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0798 – 5 July low– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has finally stalled out after trading to its highest level since March after Eurozone industrial production came in much weaker than expected. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone trade, German ZEW reads, Canada housing starts and inflation, US retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.

• R2 1.3042 – 19 July 2023 high – Medium
• R1 1.2996 – 27 July 2023 high – Strong
• S1 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium
• S2 1.2778 – 9 July low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound traded up to its highest level against the Buck since July 2023, before running into some selling pressure with the market not wanting to get too ahead of itself before tomorrow’s anticipated UK inflation data. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone trade, German ZEW reads, Canada housing starts and inflation, US retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 161.96 – 3 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Strong
• R1 160.26 – 8 July low – Medium
• S1 157.16 – 15 July low – Medium
• S2 155.72 – 12 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewAll of the talk around the BOJ checking rates has further contributed to the recent strength in the Yen. However, Yen demand has slowed down after a lackluster Monday session of trade. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone trade, German ZEW reads, Canada housing starts and inflation, US retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6799 – 11 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6703 – 4 July low – Medium
• S2 0.6620 – 28 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar was an underperformer on Monday, weighed down by lower commodities prices and a miss on China GDP. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone trade, German ZEW reads, Canada housing starts and inflation, US retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3587 – 11 July low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar took a hard hit on Monday, weighed down on declining energy prices and a Bank of Canada survey revealing weak business investment plans and subdued inflation expectations. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone trade, German ZEW reads, Canada housing starts and inflation, US retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6154 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6048 – 2 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar was hammered on Monday after taking in a dreadful New Zealand housing number. June REINZ house sales fell 25.6% year on year, the worst since February 2023. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone trade, German ZEW reads, Canada housing starts and inflation, US retail sales, import and export prices, business inventories, and NAHB housing.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach and even exceed a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5675 – 15 July/Record high– Strong
• S1 5583 – 10 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2440 – 15 July high – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Later today, we’ll get the first round of some important inflation data out of the US. That data comes in the form of US CPI and will be heavily watched, before the market then turns its attention to Friday’s US producer prices.

Special Report Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/11jullmaxspecial.mp3

View Details

We fully expect activity to pick up into the latter portion of the week as the market gets ready to take in back-to-back inflation readings out of the US on Thursday and Friday. Interestingly enough, currencies have remained relatively well bid, while stocks continue to surge to record highs.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/11jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on yearly high * USDJPY Well supported on dips * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Healthy correction imminent * GOLD (spot) Outlook constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Surprise Italian industrial production * GBPUSD Healthy drop in BOE rate cut odds * USDJPY BOJ initiative lacks urgency * AUDUSD Aussie boosted on commodities, stocks * USDCAD BoC July cut odds up to about 70% * NZDUSD RBNZ decidedly less hawkish * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading AI will eventually destroy almost every job that now exists, R. Rahn, The Washington Times (July 8, 2024) * Take Profits in Apple Stock Before AI Hype Runs Its Course, L. Navellier, InvestorPlace* (July 8, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0917 – 4 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0846 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0762 – 18 June high– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro was back trading to the topside on Wednesday, with the currency getting help from faded concerns around French politics and a better than expected Italian industrial production print. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, trade, and industrial production, US CPI, and initial jobless claims.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2740 – 4 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2668 – 3 July low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewOdds for am August BOE rate cut have come off quite a bit from less than one week ago, dropping down to about 50% from 70%. Hawkish warnings from BOE Pill about upside risks to inflation have further contributed to the GBP bid. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, trade, and industrial production, US CPI, and initial jobless claims.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 162.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 161.96 – 3 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 159.60 – 26 June low – Medium
• S2 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewAny discussion around a BOJ taper are lacking in urgency, which isn’t inspiring any confidence from traders. Even a hotter than expected Japan producer prices has failed to inspire any Yen demand, with the currency sliding right back to the recent multi-year low. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, trade, and industrial production, US CPI, and initial jobless claims.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6762 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6620 – 28 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6576 – 10 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has held up well on the back of recovering commodities prices and an ongoing record run in US equities. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, trade, and industrial production, US CPI, and initial jobless claims.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3602 – 5 July low – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewStronger commodities and US equities helped to rally the Canadian Dollar on Wednesday, though the currency remains well offered into rallies on account of softer Canada economic data and increasing odds for a BoC rate cut later this month. Odds currently sit at about 70%. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, trade, and industrial production, US CPI, and initial jobless claims.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6154 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6048 – 2 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s RBNZ communication caught the market off guard, with the central bank sounding decidedly less hawkish than expected. Odds for an RBNZ rate cut have jumped to about 50% after the central bank cited weakening credit and spending data. This has been a complete 180 from what had been hints of a possible rate hike back in May. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, trade, and industrial production, US CPI, and initial jobless claims.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. The latest rally has extended to reach a 355 point measured move extension target objective in the 5,640 area, adding to the case for an imminent correction. At this stage, additional upside should be limited to allow for overbought studies to unwind. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290.

• R2 5700 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5643 – 10 July/Record high/Extn Target – Strong
• S1 5583 – 10 July low – Medium
• S2 5450 – 2 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2400 – Round Number – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

Risk assets are looking good on this Wednesday thus far, with currencies mostly up against the Buck and US equity futures consolidating just off fresh record highs. All of this is especially impressive after Tuesday’s Fed Chair testimony.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/10jullmaxnext24.mp3

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The Fed Chair shook things up a bit in his Tuesday testimony after pushing back on rate cut timing and warning against premature easing. This all but takes July rate cut prospects off the table, with September now seen as the earliest date for the next rate cut.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/10jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on yearly high * USDJPY Well supported on dips * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Renewed stress around French politics * GBPUSD UK retailers report slower sales * USDJPY Market still doubting BOJ initiative * AUDUSD Aussie consumer confidence slides * USDCAD Canadian Dollar softer on oil weakness * NZDUSD No change expected from RBNZ on Wednesday * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading With AI, we need both competition and safety, T. Wheeler, Brookings (July 8, 2024) * Paper Money Is Hardly Scarce. and That’s Why Gold Beats It, E. Fry, InvestorPlace* (July 8, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0917 – 4 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0846 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0762 – 18 June high– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro is back to showing some stress around the French election. French unions have called for a strike at Paris airports, while Moody’s has warned there could be a downgrade to France absent a commitment to fiscal consolidation. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2740 – 4 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2668 – 3 July low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound slumped on Tuesday after retailers reported slower sales. Meanwhile, the Labour government’s immediate push for an increase in the minimum wage was also seen steepening the Gilt curve. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 162.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 161.96 – 3 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 159.60 – 26 June low – Medium
• S2 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThere is no strong indication the BOJ will be looking to tighten up policy at the upcoming meeting and the odds for a change remain up in the air, something that continues to weigh on the Yen. Ultimately, the market will continue to lean towards selling Yen until the BOJ proves otherwise. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6762 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6620 – 28 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6576 – 10 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has run into resistance from softer Aussie consumer confidence data and sagging metals prices. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3602 – 5 July low – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar was back under pressure on Tuesday, taking its hits from a slide in commodities prices, with a notable focus on oil weakness. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6048 – 2 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThere is no change expected from the RBNZ today, though we have seen profit taking into the event risk. We’ve also seen some Kiwi selling on the New Zealand Treasury’s reporting of weaker sales, with consumers experiencing hardship. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194.

• R2 5600 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 55908 – 9 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 5394 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 5321 – 7 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2400 – Round Number – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

The only batch of US economic for the day has already come and gone in the form of a better than expected NFIB small business optimism report. This has hardly had much, if any impact on price action, and most of what we’ve been seeing on this Tuesday thus far is tight consolidation trade.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/9jullmaxnext24.mp3

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A political gridlock in France and strong reassurances from the incoming UK government seem to have been enough to keep the Euro and Pound supported into this latest rally. Currencies have been better bid across the board, mostly on the back of a fresh wave of US Dollar selling.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/9jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on yearly high * USDJPY Well supported on dips * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro finds comfort in French gridlock * GBPUSD BOE Haskel talks about inflation risk * USDJPY Odds push up for July BOJ rate hike * AUDUSD Aussie home loans turn negative * USDCAD Loonie still struggling post Canada jobs miss * NZDUSD Position adjusting ahead of Wednesday RBNZ * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading AI deepfakes can sway voters and disrupt elections, H. Murphy, Financial Times (July 8, 2024) * Looking Back: 2024 Mid-Year Economic Snapshot, Fisher Investments* (July 3, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0917 – 4 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0846 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0762 – 18 June high– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has been happy to consolidate recent gains in the aftermath of the second round of the French election. It seems the market is taking more comfort in the prospect of a gridlocked government than a Le Pen majority. There are however concerns around the French debt burden and recent German trade data. Looking ahead, the only notable standout on Tuesday’s calendar comes from Fed Chair Powell testimony.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2740 – 4 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2668 – 3 July low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe incoming Chancellor has put growth at the top of the list of objectives for the new government and the UK market has welcomed this news, with the Pound outperforming as a consequence. We’ve also heard from BOE Haskel who has warned about inflation risk and says he will vote to keep rates steady in August. Looking ahead, the only notable standout on Tuesday’s calendar comes from Fed Chair Powell testimony.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 162.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 161.96 – 3 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 159.60 – 26 June low – Medium
• S2 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe latest quarterly BOJ survey reported broadening wage growth, with wages seen matching and exceeding the previous year. Market odds for a July BOJ rate hike have now moved up to slightly better than a coin toss. Looking ahead, the only notable standout on Tuesday’s calendar comes from Fed Chair Powell testimony.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6762 – 8 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6620 – 28 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6576 – 10 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAussie gains stumbled on Monday after facing headwinds from a metals decline and Aussie home loans turning negative. Looking ahead, the only notable standout on Tuesday’s calendar comes from Fed Chair Powell testimony.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3602 – 5 July low – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar spent Monday consolidating declines after taking a hit on last Friday’s softer Canada jobs report. We also got to take in a Canada confidence survey that produced a minor dip. Looking ahead, the only notable standout on Tuesday’s calendar comes from Fed Chair Powell testimony.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6048 – 2 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe RBNZ will meet tomorrow, though no change is expected on policy. But it’s possible we are seeing some position adjusting and profit taking kicking in ahead of the event risk. Looking ahead, the only notable standout on Tuesday’s calendar comes from Fed Chair Powell testimony.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194.

• R2 5600 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5590 – 8 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 5394 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 5321 – 7 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2400 – Round Number – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

The second round of the French election has caught the market off guard after Marine Le Pen’s party came out in third place behind President Macron’s centrist alliance. The result now points to a hung parliament.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/8jullmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

There has been a growing sense of concern over the outlook for the global economy. Soft economic data out of the US has also been accompanied by weaker data out of other major economies including recent letdowns out of the Eurozone and Canada.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/8jullmaxausio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Rallying back to range top * GBPUSD Sights set on yearly high * USDJPY Well supported on dips * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Bullish consolidation * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German trade data stands out * GBPUSD Chancellor Reeves pledges stability * USDJPY Yield differentials swing to Yen * AUDUSD Aussie up as RBA policy still looking at hikes * USDCAD Canada jobs come in on the softer side * NZDUSD No change expected from RBNZ this week * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Britain: Labour Landslide Changes Little for Stocks, Fisher Investments (July 5, 2024) * There’s Mass Exodus Of the Rich From Great Britain, T. Dalrymple, City Journal* (July 5, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0917 – 4 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0900 – Figure 1– Medium
• S1 1.0762 – 18 June high– Medium
• S2 1.0666 – 26 June low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overviewSofter German and French industrial production may have slowed the pace of Euro gains, but ultimately, the single currency remains well bid into the new week on the back of broad based US Dollar selling and a less nervous French political climate as risks for a Le Pen majority come down. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, and US consumer inflation expectations.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2861 – 12 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2740 – 4 July low – Medium
• S2 1.2668 – 3 July low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound has been exceptionally well bid in the aftermath of the UK election. The market has warmed to the stability pledges by the incoming Chancellor. Reeves has said the UK will avoid tax-and-spend policies. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, and US consumer inflation expectations.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 162.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 161.96 – 3 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 159.60 – 26 June low – Medium
• S2 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewJapanese officials have welcomed the latest wave of broad based US Dollar outflows. A round of softer economic data out of the US has opened the door to a shift in yield differentials out of the Buck’s favor which has invited a round of profit taking on Yen shorts. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, and US consumer inflation expectations.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6750 – Mid-Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6620 – 28 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6576 – 10 June low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewAside from the BOJ, the RBA is the only major central bank out there right now that still has rate hikes in play. This has opened some clear outperformance in the Australian Dollar. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, and US consumer inflation expectations.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar took a hard hit on Friday after the Canada jobs report came out softer than expected. The only CAD supportive development was the higher wages print, which kept odds for a July BoC rate cut around 50%. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, and US consumer inflation expectations.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6048 – 2 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewLast week’s round of softer US economic data has been behind a healthy wave of US Dollar selling and dovish repricing of Fed expectations, which has helped to drive the New Zealand Dollar higher. The RBNZ will meet this week, though no change is expected on policy. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, and US consumer inflation expectations.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194.

• R2 5600 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5575 – 5 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 5394 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 5321 – 7 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2400 – Round Number – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

It’s been a week of softer data out of the Eurozone, softer data out of the UK, ongoing stress around the French election, and what is expected to be a massive defeat for the Tories in the UK. Yet with all that going on, the Euro and Pound have been rallying along with the rest of the currency market.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/5jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Supported into dips * GBPUSD Higher low sought out * USDJPY Uptrend firmly intact * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Sights set on 1.4000 * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook remains constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD German industrial production, EZ retail sales * GBPUSD UK election result all but priced in * USDJPY Japanese officials welcome soft US data * AUDUSD Aussie rallies on yield differential shift * USDCAD Canada jobs report stands out on Friday * NZDUSD Kiwi gets boost from USD outflows * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading We’ve Seen This Movie Before As Winners ‘Catch Down’, S. McBride, RiskHedge (June 24, 2024) * 13 Charts On the Market’s Q2 Turnaround, S. Hansen, Morningstar* (July 1, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0853 – 12 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0818 – 3 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0666 – 26 June low– Strong
• S2 1.0650 – 1 May low – Medium

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s round of softer US economic data highlighted by ADP, claims, factory orders, and ISM services has been behind a healthy wave of US Dollar selling and dovish repricing of Fed expectations, which has helped to drive the Euro higher. Softer economic data out of the Eurozone has mostly been shrugged off. As far as takeaways from the ECB Minutes go, they were that that not everyone believed in a strong recovery scenario, wage growth remained key and there was a growing confidence in the ECB’s own forecasts. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Canada Ivey PMIs, and an ECB Lagarde speech. Trading conditions are thinner on account of the US holiday and won’t be getting back to normal until after the weekend.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2778 – 3 July high – Medium
• S1 1.2613 – 27 June low – Medium
• S2 1.2578 – 15 May low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s round of softer US economic data highlighted by ADP, claims, factory orders, and ISM services has been behind a healthy wave of US Dollar selling and dovish repricing of Fed expectations which has helped to drive the Pound higher. Softer economic data out of the UK has mostly been shrugged off, and the election, which is expected to produce a landslide win for the Labour Party, has been more or less priced in. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Canada Ivey PMIs, and an ECB Lagarde speech. Trading conditions are thinner on account of the US holiday and won’t be getting back to normal until after the weekend.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 162.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 161.96 – 3 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 159.60 – 26 June low – Medium
• S2 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has very much welcomed this week’s wave of softer than expected data out of the US, which has opened broad based US Dollar outflows and a repricing of Fed bets. Yield differentials have moved back towards the Yen and we’ve seen a mild recovery in the Yen off multi-year low levels. Surely, local officials have been happy to get even the smallest of breathing room. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Canada Ivey PMIs, and an ECB Lagarde speech. Trading conditions are thinner on account of the US holiday and won’t be getting back to normal until after the weekend.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6800– Figure – Medium
• R2 0.6734 – 3 July high – Medium
• S1 0.6576– 10 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6558 – 8 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s round of softer US economic data highlighted by ADP, claims, factory orders, and ISM services has been behind a healthy wave of US Dollar selling and dovish repricing of Fed expectations, which has helped to drive the Australian Dollar higher. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Canada Ivey PMIs, and an ECB Lagarde speech. Trading conditions are thinner on account of the US holiday and won’t be getting back to normal until after the weekend.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3600 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThis week’s round of softer US economic data highlighted by ADP, claims, factory orders, and ISM services has been behind a healthy wave of US Dollar selling and dovish repricing of Fed expectations, which has helped to drive the Canadian Dollar higher. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Canada Ivey PMIs, and an ECB Lagarde speech. Trading conditions are thinner on account of the US holiday and won’t be getting back to normal until after the weekend.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6048 – 2 July low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThis week’s round of softer US economic data highlighted by ADP, claims, factory orders, and ISM services has been behind a healthy wave of US Dollar selling and dovish repricing of Fed expectations, which has helped to drive the New Zealand Dollar higher. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, the monthly employment reports out of the US and Canada, Canada Ivey PMIs, and an ECB Lagarde speech. Trading conditions are thinner on account of the US holiday and won’t be getting back to normal until after the weekend.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194.

• R2 5600 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5577 – 4 July/Record high – Medium
• S1 5394 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 5321 – 7 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2388 –7 June high – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

As we come into the North American open on Tuesday the story is one of mild Dollar demand and mild risk off flow. Another round of weakness in the Yen is also notable, with the Japanese currency squeaking out yet another fresh multi-year low against the Buck.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/2jullmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

Initially, currencies were able to find some momentum on the back of an early Monday Euro rally brought on by relief around the first round of the French election. But all of this faded rather quickly, and the focus shifted back to the US side of the equation.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/2jullmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Supported into dips * GBPUSD Higher low sought out * USDJPY Uptrend firmly intact * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Sights set on 1.4000 * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook remains constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro gets boost from French election result * GBPUSD UK mortgage approvals decline for second month * USDJPY Solid Tankan does nothing to help ailing Yen * AUDUSD Sticky inflation keeps Aussie supported * USDCAD Stats Canada reports on downbeat May growth * NZDUSD Kiwi looking at US politics and risk sentiment * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Corporate Default Wave That Never Happened, Fisher Investments (June 27, 2024) * Is Europe Finally A Buy For Investors?, B. Carlson, AWCS* (June 28, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0853 – 12 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0777 – 1 July high – Medium
• S1 1.0666 – 26 June low– Strong
• S2 1.0650 – 1 May low – Medium

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro has enjoyed a small relief rally after Marine Le Pen fell short of an outright majority in the first round of the French election. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2740 – 19 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2613 – 27 June low – Medium
• S2 1.2578 – 15 May low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound is coming out of a Monday session where it underperformed slightly after UK mortgage approvals slowed for a second month, and UK manufacturing PMIs were revised lower. Odds for a BOE August rate cut sit just shy of 66%. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 162.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 161.73 – 1 July/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 159.60 – 26 June low – Medium
• S2 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen continued to extend declines to fresh multi-year lows and wasn’t able to get any help from a better than expected Japanese Tankan survey. Despite the weakness, the local market is only pricing a 60% chance for a rate hike at the end of the month. Traders continue to doubt intervention threats. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6715– 16 May high – Strong
• R2 0.6705 – 12 June high – Medium
• S1 0.6576– 10 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6558 – 8 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar has held up relatively well into dips, getting help from sticky local inflation expectations. The June Melbourne Institute Inflation index turned up for the first time this year. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3615 – 25 June low – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe Canadian Dollar wasn’t impressed at all with a surge in the price of oil, instead getting hit hard on Monday after Stats Canada said growth faded in May. The market has been pushing more towards a Bank of Canada rate cut and this has been weighing on the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6057 – 28 June low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has been thinking more about the possible impact of a Trump Presidency after last week’s debate. US-China trade is back in the crosshairs and could be something that weighs on the risk correlated currency. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194.

• R2 5600 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5527 – 28 June/Record high – Medium
• S1 5394 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 5321 – 7 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2388 –7 June high – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

The Euro is the clear winner on this Monday, with the single currency getting a nice boost on the news of Marine Le Pen’s party recording a smaller margin of victory than some of the polls were indicating.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/07/1julylmaxnext24.mp3

View Details

The US Dollar comes into the new week mildly offered after a wave of USD negative drivers in the previous week. The Atlanta Fed’s downgraded growth outlook for the US economy definitely played its part, while the Buck also stumbled on cooler PCE readings and renewed tariff fears.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/06/1julylmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Supported into dips * GBPUSD Higher low sought out * USDJPY Uptrend firmly intact * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Sights set on 1.4000 * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook remains constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Taking time to digest French election * GBPUSD Pound gets boost from UK GDP beat * USDJPY Marketing wondering about intervention timing * AUDUSD Rallying metals prop Australian Dollar * USDCAD OIS Bank of Canada July rate cut pricing jumps * NZDUSD USD outflows prop Kiwi rate * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading The Federal Reserve’s Little Secret, R. Karma, The Atlantic (June 27, 2024) * Company Performance vs Stock Performance, L. Swedroe, Alpha Architect* (June 28, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0853 – 12 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0762 – 18 June high – Medium
• S1 1.0666 – 26 June low– Strong
• S2 1.0650 – 1 May low – Medium

EURUSD – fundamental overviewGerman unemployment has ticked up, while French inflation data has cooled. Meanwhile, French bond yields have printed year-to-date highs as Macron sinks further in the polls. The Euro has however managed to find support despite all of this on the back of broad based US Dollar selling after the Atlanta Fed downwardly revised its growth outlook. We suspect in the sessions ahead, the Euro will get back to reacting and digesting updates from the French election. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from Japan consumer confidence, UK Nationwide house prices, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, BOE consumer credit and UK mortgage approvals, UK manufacturing PMIs, German inflation, US ISM manufacturing, and US construction spending.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2740 – 19 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2613 – 27 June low – Medium
• S2 1.2578 – 15 May low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewThe Pound closed out the previous week on a strong note after taking in better than expected UK GDP data and an improvement in private consumption. Meanwhile, the Dollar was softer after the Atlanta Fed downgraded the growth outlook for the US economy. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from Japan consumer confidence, UK Nationwide house prices, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, BOE consumer credit and UK mortgage approvals, UK manufacturing PMIs, German inflation, US ISM manufacturing, and US construction spending.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 162.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 161.29 – 28 June/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium
• S2 158.00 – Figure – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has extended its multi-year decline against the Buck as monetary policy divergence continues to weigh. At this point, there has been no official response from Japanese officials. It’s possible USDJPY 165 is now the new level that is being watched. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from Japan consumer confidence, UK Nationwide house prices, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, BOE consumer credit and UK mortgage approvals, UK manufacturing PMIs, German inflation, US ISM manufacturing, and US construction spending.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6715– 16 May high – Strong
• R2 0.6705 – 12 June high – Medium
• S1 0.6576– 10 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6558 – 8 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar put in a nice performance to close out the previous week, getting a boost from rallying metals prices and broad based selling in the US Dollar after the Atlanta Fed downgraded the growth outlook. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from Japan consumer confidence, UK Nationwide house prices, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, BOE consumer credit and UK mortgage approvals, UK manufacturing PMIs, German inflation, US ISM manufacturing, and US construction spending.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3615 – 25 June low – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewThe market wasn’t overly impressed with as expected Canada GDP data. Instead, the Canadian Dollar has been held up relative to its peers as OIS rates pricing sees a near 50% chance for a July Bank of Canada rate cut, up dramatically from 15% just days earlier. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from Japan consumer confidence, UK Nationwide house prices, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, BOE consumer credit and UK mortgage approvals, UK manufacturing PMIs, German inflation, US ISM manufacturing, and US construction spending.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6057 – 28 June low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar has been thinking more about the possible impact of a Trump Presidency after last week’s debate. US-China trade is back in the crosshairs and could be something that weighs on the risk correlated currency. But for now, the Kiwi rate has found some support on the back of broad based US Dollar selling after the Atlanta Fed downgraded the growth outlook for the US economy. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from Japan consumer confidence, UK Nationwide house prices, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, BOE consumer credit and UK mortgage approvals, UK manufacturing PMIs, German inflation, US ISM manufacturing, and US construction spending.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194.

• R2 5600 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5527 – 28 June/Record high – Medium
• S1 5394 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 5321 – 7 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2388 –7 June high – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

View Details

The decline in the Yen has been one of the biggest stories of the week. The currency now sits at a 38-year low against the US Dollar. This weakness has many wondering when Japanese officials will finally intervene. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German import prices, UK GDP, German unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, personal income, personal spending, Michigan sentiment, Chicago PMIs, and Fed speak.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/06/27junelmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Supported into dips * GBPUSD Higher low sought out * USDJPY Uptrend firmly intact * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Sights set on 1.4000 * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook remains constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD French election risk keeps Euro cautious * GBPUSD UK GDP comes into the spotlight * USDJPY Marketing wondering about intervention timing * AUDUSD Aussie nervous about slowdown in China, Japan * USDCAD BoC rate cut odds jump back up again * NZDUSD Kiwi tracking with bigger picture themes * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Chinese brokers launder hundreds of millions, J. Sinclair, Financial Times (June 26, 2024) * Market Breadth Reveals It’s Not All About Nvidia, Fisher Investments* (June 26, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0853 – 12 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0762 – 18 June high – Medium
• S1 1.0666 – 26 June low– Strong
• S2 1.0650 – 1 May low – Medium

EURUSD – fundamental overviewThe Euro got a boost on Thursday from the broad selling pressure on the US Dollar. At the same time, gains were well capped with traders still nervous about taking on too much Euro exposure into the weekend French election risk. Meanwhile, ECB Kazaks was on the wires saying rate cuts would come faster if pay growth wasn’t so strong. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German import prices, UK GDP, German unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, personal income, personal spending, Michigan sentiment, Chicago PMIs, and Fed speak.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detailWatch now

GBPUSD – technical overviewSigns have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.

• R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.2740 – 19 June high – Medium
• S1 1.2613 – 27 June low – Medium
• S2 1.2578 – 15 May low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overviewAbsence of economic data out of the UK on Thursday left the Pound trading on bigger picture flow which leaned slightly in the UK currency’s favor. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German import prices, UK GDP, German unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, personal income, personal spending, Michigan sentiment, Chicago PMIs, and Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overviewThe market remains confined to a strong uptrend, most recently extending to a multi-year high through 160.00. Key support comes in at 151.95, with only a weekly close below to delay the constructive outlook. Next major resistance comes in at 165.00.

• R2 161.00 – Figure – Strong
• R1 160.88 – 26 June/2024/Multi-Year high – Medium
• S1 158.67 – 21 June low – Medium
• S2 158.00 – Figure – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overviewThe Yen has extended its multi-year decline against the Buck as monetary policy divergence continues to weigh. At this point, there has been no official response from Japanese officials. It’s possible USDJPY 165 is now the new level that is being watched. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German import prices, UK GDP, German unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, personal income, personal spending, Michigan sentiment, Chicago PMIs, and Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overviewThere are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6900 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6715– 16 May high – Strong
• R2 0.6705 – 12 June high – Medium
• S1 0.6576– 10 June low – Medium
• S2 0.6558 – 8 May low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overviewThe Australian Dollar wasn’t able to do much with rising Aussie consumer inflation expectations and a local market that is now pricing 17 basis point of higher rates before the end of the year. It seems the currency is more concerned about economic slowdown in China and Japan. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German import prices, UK GDP, German unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, personal income, personal spending, Michigan sentiment, Chicago PMIs, and Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overviewAbove 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area.

• R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong
• R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium
• S1 1.3615 – 25 June low – Medium
• S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overviewA weak Canada April payrolls number didn’t do anything to help the Canadian Dollar. Odds for a July Bank of Canada rate cut have jumped to about 40%, double what the odds were earlier in the week. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German import prices, UK GDP, German unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, personal income, personal spending, Michigan sentiment, Chicago PMIs, and Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overviewOverall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
• R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.6065 – 28 June low– Medium
• S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overviewThe New Zealand Dollar hasn’t been moving much in recent sessions. Absence of first-tier data has left the currency focused on bigger picture themes and with US equities not doing much, the Kiwi rate has been confined to some tighter trading ranges. Key standouts on Friday’s calendar come from German import prices, UK GDP, German unemployment, Canada GDP, US core PCE, personal income, personal spending, Michigan sentiment, Chicago PMIs, and Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overviewLonger-term technical studies continue to look quite extended, begging for a deeper correction ahead. At the same time, the latest bullish breakout to a fresh record high beyond the 2024 high opens the door for the next measured move upside extension targeting the 5650 area. Key support comes in at 5194.

• R2 5600 – Round Number – Strong
• R1 5524 – 20 June/Record high – Medium
• S1 5394 – 14 June low – Medium
• S2 5321 – 7 June low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overviewThough we have seen a healthy adjustment of investor expectations towards the amount of rate cuts in 2024, the market still hopes policy will end up erring more towards the investor friendly, accommodative side of things. This bet has kept stocks well bid into dips and consistently pushing record highs. Still, if there is a sense the Fed will need to be more sensitive towards erring on the side of higher rates, it could invite major disruption to the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overviewThe 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 2500-3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 2451 – 20 May Record high – Strong
• R1 2388 –7 June high – Medium
• S1 2277 – 3 May low – Strong
• S2 2223– 21 March high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overviewThe yellow metal has pushed record highs in 2024 with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an end.

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There has been an undeniable wave of broad based US Dollar demand on this Wednesday. The catalyst for the move comes from the latest round of hawkish comments from Fed Bowman who has gone as far to say she doesn’t see any rate cuts this year.

Wrap-Up Callhttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/06/26junelmaxnxt24.mp3

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There has been a clear battle going on in financial markets. On the one side, the Fed continues to push out more hawkish leaning messages, and on the other side, investors keep trying to look for any excuse to defy the Fed rate outlook, insisting on more rate cuts than less.

Audio Updatehttps://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2024/06/26junelmaxaudio.mp3Technical highlights* EURUSD Supported into dips * GBPUSD Higher low sought out * USDJPY Uptrend firmly intact * AUDUSD Carving out major base * USDCAD Sights set on 1.4000 * NZDUSD Remains capped into rallies * US SPX 500 Next extension target at 5650 * GOLD (spot) Outlook remains constructive

Fundamental highlights EURUSD Euro worried about election fallout * GBPUSD Pound seen as temporary haven * USDJPY Verbal intervention fails to deter Yen bears * AUDUSD Aussie inflation data above forecast * USDCAD BoC rate cut odds cool off after hot inflation * NZDUSD Kiwi tracking with bigger picture themes * US SPX 500 Risk Fed outlook lets the market down * GOLD (spot) Macro themes* supportive of higher price

30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)Further reading Mean Reversion, or Extreme Aversion?, D. Dickson, Albert Bridge Capital(June 24, 2024) * Mid-Year Outlook for Real Assets, T. Slok, Apollo Academy* (June 24, 2024)

Choose pair:

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDJPY
• AUDUSD
• USDCAD
• NZDUSD
• SPX500

• GOLD EURUSD – technical overviewThe Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips below 1.0500, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a push through the 2023 high at 1.1276 to strengthen the constructive outlook and extend the recovery run towards 1.2000. Only back below 1.0400 negates.

• R2 1.0853 – 12 June high – Strong

• R1 1.0762 – 18 June high – Medium
• S1 1.0668 – 14 June low– Strong
• S2 1.0650 – 1 May low – Medium