Trade Talk From A Hedge Fund Insider: Recent Episodes
GSC
Trade Talk is a podcast that breaks down intermediate to complex stock trading strategies. The podcast looks to give a discussion of trading thesis from an expert point of view. Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gsc/support
The Fed just Chose to raise rates… regional bank contagion has crypto maximalist celebrating for joy… Charlie and I take a moment to look at the pieces on the board and plan what will be the most effective trades within a recessionary environment. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gsc/support
The moment of consumer delinquency I have been talking about has begun to materialize in Australia & New Zealand. Adjustable rate mortgages have reset to higher levels; while consumer have become debt ladened. Tune into the episode to get caught up and see how an amazing short has come to fruition by macroeconomic analysis. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gsc/support
In annual fashion we discuss the biggest losers of 2022. Brief and to the point. Sometimes you just don’t see what you thought you saw.--- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gsc/support
Soro’s did it why can’t I? In this episode we discuss the potential collapse of Tether USD. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gsc/support
The retail investor is still living in times of yore. Nate Coats and I discuss the illogical behaviors of the retail investor.--- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gsc/support
In this episode respected analyst Nate Coats of “The Financial Study” joins and gives a comprehensive explanation of the very big issue of off U.S. dollar denominated off balance sheet derivatives. Hope you enjoy the episode.--- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/gsc/support
So you want the Fed to save your Portfolio… listen to this!
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T-Mobile is ripe for shorting! In this episode we explore the head winds T-mobile faces as a looming global recession is set to hit its balance sheet.
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With global markets rotating with every rate hike, how are you protecting your portfolio from draw down? GemBot A.I.‘s Chief Portfolio Officer Charlie Meaden gives his systematic approach to losing less when others are losing more. It is Terminate on sight with the Bad Bear 🐻 of Auckland.
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In this episode we explore a segment of the economy not being talked about… auto loans. No everything is not a repeat of the big short but we do have a looming issue within sub prime auto loans and it is starting to come home to roost. Tune into the episode to understand why.
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Well what’s going to happen? Are we getting a soft landing or a hard landing. Let’s discuss.
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Carnival Cruises will file for bankruptcy in the near term. Listen to this episode to find out how we arrived to this conclusion.
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Consumer brands and retail sales look as though they will fall short of the projected growth numbers industry professionals had expected. Lend me your discretionary ear (see what I did there) into this episode to get my views.
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😳 As of Nov 2022 Agency Mortgage Back Securities will be traded on the CME. This is a huge indication of what institutions will be doing with the long bond in the future. Let’s Talk about this!!!
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Crypto, Bitcoin and it’s disciple of derivatives may be on their last legs of market participant viability. Tune into the episode to get my take.
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Food prices are rising and we haven’t even had the fall harvest of soft commodities. In this episode we explore what is happening with food prices.
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REVLON is bankrupt and the puts are in play!!! Listen to the sheer chicanery that transpires in private equity which ends up leading to this debacle.
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The 10 year and 2 year treasuries are inverting; this signals another major issue for US markets. Tune in for the continuation of the discussion on US treasuries. Reference previous episode.
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Most find the discussion of treasuries to be a real snooze fest, but I am here to tell you… this is how you understand what the economy may have in store. In this episode we explore the Invoice Swap Spread to get a handle of how to profit from this dislocation in long dated treasury yields.
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Charlie Meaden Of Gembot A.I. gives us his hypothesis on what the new growth cycle will look like going forward. Charlie takes the time to break down where he sees a bottom and what sectors he will be looking to deploy capital.
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Central Banks are raising rates and inflation is at multi decade highs… Yet somehow Australia and New Zealand are attempting to buck the trend of real estate price destruction… why you ask? Adjustable Rate Mortgages is your answer. In this episode we drill down on what is actually occurring in Australia and New Zealand and formulate a plan of attack.
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I Love everything about the opportunities in the Brazilian economy. While most of the braid market takes focus on Europe; opportunities due to high interest rates have made a unique buying opportunity in the Brazilian stock market. Check out our thesis of why Brazil Is In Play!
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Like a good king-fu student who lost his master at the hands of a skilled warlord …. Charlie and I are here to avenge our portfolios 😂… We must be a gluttons for punishment because we are eyeing China again… However this time it’s personal (okay no more puns!) On a serious note it seems the Chinese central bank will foreshadow what is to come in the U.S. Markets; Which gives us a hunch that we caught the new credit cycle just in its beginning stages. Tune in as Charlie Meaden of GemBot A.I. @cyborgcharlie joins me to discuss opportunities in Chinese equities.
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Charlie Meaden New Zealand fund manager from GemBot A.I. joins the episode to give us his vantage point of current market events and even calls out his best picks!
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In this episode we take an objective look at the big debt cycle and point out where the U.S is and where China is within the cycle… The two countries are decoupled within the cycle and are serving as precursors to each other of what may be to come.
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This episode we delve into my out look for 2022. Things will come to roost this year.
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Season 4 is here and we kick off discussing the nuggets losses of 2021. happy to be back and recording for you all. Tune in!
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This episode serves as a continuation of the US. dollar Shortage episode… in this episode we discuss who’s that tightening by the Fed which is souring dollar strength is also leading to rising treasury Yields… this spells disaster for equities BUT the general market doesn’t realize it
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In this episode we slow it down a bit to explain the issue with a Chinese dollar surplus and U.S. dollar shortage. This is 1 of 2… the second episode will be discussed in the inflation and yields episode (Just click the episode after this one)
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No income, no problem, no product, No problem! Valuation at over a billion dollars… sounds right to me!
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Wallstreet estimates consumers dying to spend money… but supply chain and lower wages threaten to derail their efforts. This episode explores how retailers are looking to capitalize and how was as a firm are questioning the methodology. Tune in!
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The stage is setting… the horizon is becoming clear.. The Fed wants to Deflate the economy but China and Evergrand show a cautionary tale
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This episode Gembot.Ai Portfolio Manager Charlie Meaden is back! He gives his opinion on Chinese Credit Contractions threatening global macroeconomic recovery. We also delve into the Chinese tech companies fight to strengthen their balance sheets after the EVERGRAND default crisis just accelerated credit tightening in the Chinese economy.
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Speculative actions in the economy are out of hand. People keep partaking in riskier levels of debt because news media and notable people are saying things are going well. Tune in to this episode to comprehend why this is dangerous.
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Can you see it? Do you know you are even within in it?… A shocking tale of the over night repurchase agreement shell game and how its being used to stave off the derailment of the U.S. markets.
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In this episode we discuss why the Fed Taper can not happen yet or in the near future. Tune in!!!!
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There is a dirty secret in the leading indices causing me to believe that markets will fall... tune in to understand why
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In this episode we discuss indicators of pending credit contractions from in consumer lending. Continually buying the dip will lull you to sleep and you will miss the credit disruption that is imminent!
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On this episode I have Iqbal Singh a 10 year trucking veteran; who’s family has owned and operated freight logistics for 20 years. He gives his insights on the industry while I get candid with my opinion. Tune in!!!!
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We are rebalancing the portfolio and here is why...
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AMC is back in focus and roaring like the white water rapids of the Colorado River.... do you ride the wave, stand clear or get crushed... let’s discuss
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I predicted this already back in 2020 and now it’s bringing to unfold and be spoken about. INFLATIONARY pressure... this episode explains what spells doom for the economy i.e. the real recession is coming!
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* PLEASE FORGIVE PARTS OF AUDIO CUT OFF, ASSUNE WAS HAVIN DIFFICULTY WITH AUDIO we did pic up where he left off*** The avg investor in crypto is playing musicsal chairs in Crpyto. On this episode we have Assune Cotlage (Twitter: @cotlage) Chief information security officers and web3.0 entrepreneur. Assune is a skilled developer and successful investor in Crypto currency. I invited ho, to discuss because he can be a strong contractions to my BTC short thesis. Enjoy the BTC slander and admiration!
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In this episode we discuss my discovery on how to tell when markets will crash 😳😳😳😳
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In this episode we have the profound Charlie Meaden CEO and co-founder of gembot.ai, a futuristic Berkshire Hathaway built on machine-learning, AI and human intelligence. Talking to us about Chinese small cap and medium cap growth stocks. Enjoy the episode!
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10 year treasuries are cause for concern in the US equity market. The tension of inflating bond yields is causing equity markets and options to reprice... Tune in for informational insights.
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In this episode we have special guest Wildmael Darius giving us the play by play on why he chose to be so early in the second most talk about trade of the moment... SILVER. Tune in to understand how we will be playing the position and it’s benefits to the institutional portfolio.
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It took 2 hours and 40 minutes for the titanic to sink... over the next 2 years we should see ominous moves as mass speculation begins to influence the U.S. equity markets... what will be the best way to play the unprecedented short squeezes.
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We are shorting BTC in this episode you find out why and what the bet is.
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In this episode we speak what is happening with the yield curve and why it’s saying short U.S. equities
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In this episode we discuss why U.S. home builders are out pacing the S&P 500
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Why is the S&P 500 headed to 4,000 and beyond!
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In this episode we explore the loss of value to the Japanese Yen to the US Dollar by way of Crude Oil Prices
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Volatility could chop up the V shaped trend of the market... in this episode we look into what will cause it.
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This episode is in two segments presented in one episode. I speak on my biggest losing positions of the year. This episode also takes a moment to culmination what the episodes presented say about the markets in 2021.
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In this episode we will break down my predictions for the 2021 global market outlook.
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The current IPO issuance and why I am avoiding it.
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900 Billion dollars Cares act is being voted on and it does not contain state aid!!!! This mag lead to the potential to short weak downgraded municipal bonds that are currently over priced. Tune in as we discuss how this would work.
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Bitcoin at 19,000 and running.... what is happening and why has it turned viable?
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I’m this episode we speak on the steepening of the 2 year and 10 year treasury. This peculiar situation will cause yields to rotate while giving traders the ability for big gains. Tune it
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In this episode we discuss M3... M what?!?!!! Yeah the 3rd stage of Monetary Policy and how that will look while effecting markets. Tune in!
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AMC is looking to make a contrarian move to the trends in the cinematic entertainment sector... in this episode we discuss why that is a gamble we will be looking to exploit.
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In this episode I give my thesis on the current market and how I view this concept that the U.S. Dollar is set to devalue.
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The Chickens have come home to roost, as the politicos have been wrestling for months to pass the new stimulus bill. It was discussed before in the August 30th episode that if this happens liquidity will dry up. In this episode we discuss how we will put on the trade that shorts the market while allowing us to maintain our long position.
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A Correction of size-bale proportions is afoot. What this means to you and how to scan the landscape to see it. Tune In!
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9 Pharmaceutical companies have formed a Pact to be ethical and not patent a covid 19 vaccine until safety of the drug has been established... We take a quick re-evaluation to our portfolio positions... it may be time to cut and run.
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The Economy is running hot yet jobless claims are still increasing... In this episode we discuss why the Fed agenda works and why our portfolio will stay the course with them.
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Electric vehicle stocks are having a hell of a run and it has general market looking to get in where they can fit in why does this make sense and how will we be playing this market
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Political gridlock threatens to reprice markets... in this episode I take you into a understanding of the why and how we will avoid it
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We are looking ahead to buy for the 4th quarter of 2020. In this episode we speak on what stocks are at a relative discount now due to missed earnings. Check out the episode for the informational insights!
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The economic status of Hong Kong has changed drastically and we are due for a very interesting set of events. Tune in and listen to how you can trade the Hong Kong dollar devaluation
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Big Pharma and little Pharma are off to the races, who will cross checkered flag and win the global Covid-19 500. Sorry for the race pun. Check out the new episode speaking about which Pharma company stocks you should buy.
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In this episode we use Hertz as a case study to support my hypothesis that markets will contract in approximately 2023.
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When you were a kid you likely heard your mother or grandma say she was going to pennies (J.C. Penny) now the once famed retailer is in bankruptcy never to return... in this episode we discuss what lead to the issue and how we can capitalize.
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Moderna Pharmaceuticals has watch dogs in a frenzy over potential market manipulation. Will this derail the stocks parabolic movement ? We dig into the facts in this episode
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Genius Brand Holdings... GNUS ticker is set to launch its June 15th Kartoon Channel and retail investors are in a frenzy... we have initiated positions in this and in this episodes we discuss why and how we plans to capitalize on the Long side and Short side.
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Allow me to pontificate what I view of markets and their unusual resilience in the face of turmoil.
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Earth Quakes and Natural disasters threaten to add more turmoil to Puerto Rico Bonds. This episodes takes a look at how to capitalize off of the inevitable loss of investor interest in the triple tax exempt American territory
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Neiman Marcus has a looming bankruptcy and its bonds are providing a tempting risk reward play. In this episode we discuss what got us here and how we will play it
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Well the federal reserve has decided this time around they will buy into the municipal markets to aid states floundering. Tune into the episode to understand why
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With Oil prices at levels not seen in decades US Shale producers are under immense stress to slip into the abyss of reorganization and Bankruptcy... in this episode we explore why we should be short the Shale Companies even with the trump administration oversight
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Dean Foods has completed sale of a large part of is operating business a brief detail of what that means and how it plays out.
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In this episode we speak about the prospects of a V shaped economic recovery
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Boeing Short Term Call Options are a contrarian buy... however I am looking for the price action due to its trading range. In this episode I explain the why and the risk.
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Covid-19 is the pin that threatens to pop the 10 Trillion dollar Corporate Bond bubble. Many corporate bonds are BBB rated and this is going to pose a problem... tune into the episode to get the large picture
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Earnings season is around the corner!!! On this episode we discuss Amazon and the entire supermarket sector. These will be where the super charged returns will be.
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In this episode I discuss hotels and weather we go Long or Short.
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In this episode we speak about the airline sector bailout
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In-depth conversation on why we are not in a recession, and how the next 8-9 months play out
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We discuss what dropped the markets on Monday March 9th. Analyze how that drop presents opportunity in future not present.
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Episode is briefed and gives a warning for those who are short the market and winning. Don’t be too short you will get caught in a bear trap
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On this episode of trade talk I give my take on what will happen to bitcoin in relation to the coronavirus market shake up.
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Markets are in a tailspin.l from the coronavirus what should you be doing to take full advantage
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Dean Foods will be purchased by American Dairy Famers of America or the next highest bidder. (Something that was always going to happen) On this episode I speak on the acquisition and it’s pros and cons.
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I don’t like the run up in Tesla it makes no sense. In this episode I speak about why I feel shorting Tesla in the wake of the second quarter earnings is the most effective way to capitalize off this thesis.
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In this episode we peel back the curtain on what happened with the over night repo market blow up in September of 2019. The price action caused a huge interest rate spike! Giving a Foreshadowing of what assets to pour into in the near future. In other words it’s time to Go for the GOLD!
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In this episode I reflect on a something I sold many years ago... structured notes. (A structured product, also known as a market-linked investment, is a pre-packaged structured finance investment strategy based on a single security, a basket of securities, options, indices, commodities, debt issuance or foreign currencies, and to a lesser extent, derivatives.) and how those notes are going to start imploding after years of paying off big returns.
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Happy New Year! trade talk is back with season 2 and new episodes. In this episode we talk about the biggest miscalculations in 2019. As always we keep it short and sweet and too the point. Enjoy
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In this episode we discuss why I think the Casino Gaming sector will be a place for robust profits.
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In this episode I discuss what will be the trigger to the next recession and how to spot it. After the 4th quarter of 2019, I will be looking to build a SHORT position in the industrial and durable goods sector
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In this episode I explain my macro out look on the US economy for 2020. It doesn’t get into fine detail as that is not the reason for the podcast . However it does explain my trading strategy and execution. Thank you for listening
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Lyft and Uber having me reliving 2012... when Facebook was all the rage and I sold my shares too early when I could have just sat on them and been up 400%... listen to my thoughts on how ride sharing will mimic Facebook
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The corporate raiders are circling in on Bed Bath & Beyond I has created an opportune time to boost returns in your portfolio. Get my breakdown and form your own opinion.
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Get down to the nitty gritty and understand what Dean Foods Chapter 11 really means
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California is burning and there is soon to be a changing of the guard with its biggest utility provider. Why PG&E is doomed and my take on how to profit
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In this episode we discuss America’s 3rd largest dairy producer Dean Foods (DF) and why their stock is prime to give you a 4X return on investment.
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