The Dismal Science: Recent Episodes
The Australian Institute of Company Directors
Join the AICD’s Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell and Head of Content Ivan Ah Sam for this weekly deep dive into all the economic news. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered. Stay up-to-date on the economic forces shaping the world.
AICD is proud to announce the launch of a brand new podcast offering - Director Download.
Director Downloadis a weekly podcast series that keeps directors and senior leaders ahead of evolving governance obligations.
Each episode features conversations with policy experts and leading directors to unpack complex governance challenges and deliver practical insights that can be applied in the boardroom. You can listen by searching 'Director Download' in your podcast player, or by clicking the links below:
- Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033f7mHnHstKVIekaBMT2Y
- Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/director-download/id1896576074
When the RBA cut rates back in February this year it sounded cautious. This time it sounded confident. At least kind of. It also sounded pretty uncertain about the global economy...but then who isn't these days? This week's episode of the pod gives its quick take on the May 2025 rate cut and the prospects for more to come.
For more insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell head to https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.
In this week’s episode, we unpack the post-election market rally, Trump’s unexpected retreat on tariffs and renewed trade talks with China, fresh data on wages and unemployment, and what to expect from next week’s RBA meeting. A quick but sharp look at the key economic signals shaping the week.
For more from AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
The RBA's new Monetary Policy Board meets later this month to consider the case for a second rate cut in the current easing cycle. What will it make of Australia's election campaign, this week's inflation numbers, the recent rash of international forecast downgrades from the IMF, WTO and World Bank, and ongoing global trade policy uncertainty? Still high on Easter chocolate, the pod offers its unsolicited advice.
Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.)
For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, including his weekly economic update, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.
In this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments.
They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip capabilities. The conversation covers Germany's potential defense spending increase, US steel tariffs affecting Australia, contradictions in US onshoring and immigration policies, and the possibility of talent flowing from the US to countries like Australia.
Throughout, they offer practical investment guidance for navigating uncertain markets.
Subscribe to Mark's weekly newsletter here
This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked.
Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly implemented tariffs. They explore how these factors, coupled with significant geopolitical uncertainties including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, are contributing to market jitters and a shifting focus away from previous narratives like AI.
Finally, they consider the potential economic ramifications of the US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) initiative.
Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure.
Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could derail the current economic outlook.
They explore topics such as diverging central bank rate paths, the impact of a potential Trump administration, the fraying rules-based international system, demographic transitions, technological revolutions (AI, bioscience, energy), the energy transition, state-based armed conflict, and domestic political uncertainty.
Despite the risks, is there room for optimism, or are we heading towards a "G-Zero" world?
Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
We're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts.
Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI market leaders’ valuations, the effectiveness of export controls and the future of AI?
Finally, we discuss the return of "Tariff Man" and the potential for a Smoot-Hawley moment.
We’re taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and into the future.
- Mark and Raph discuss the explosion of AI and where it might be headed, as well as its impact on financial markets.
- We contemplate what might constitute the next big wave of global innovation.
- Will AI prove to be transformative or merely a sustaining innovation?
- And could the changing geopolitical landscape mean the end of hyper-globalisation?
We will be back with our regular episodes in February.
If you enjoyed or hated this episode, we’d love to hear your feedback! Send us an email:
podcasts@aicd.com.au
This week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mark and Su-lin reflect on Australia’s economic conditions and the RBA’s 2024 performance.
They unpack why the RBA has held interest rates steady for so long – and what this means for Australia’s economic outlook, including a (mild) disagreement on the outlook for interest rates. Plus, they discuss the impact of a new US administration, the RBC's unique projections, the global easing cycle, and how Australia stacks up against the rest of the world.
Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table.
Also, Mark looks back at his predictions from a year ago, revisiting his forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.
Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html
Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
This week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth since the pandemic with private sector demand contributing nothing to this meager growth figure.
Will the RBA stay the course with rates on hold in the face of a deepening per capita recession and falling living standards?
We also look at what's driving Australia's poor economic performance relative to other OECD nations. Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html
Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
This week, the Dismal Science turns its attention to Europe’s economic powerhouse - Germany.
We examine the country's recent economic struggles, exploring the reasons behind its faltering performance, including the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, and the rise of Chinese manufacturing.
We discuss whether these challenges are merely cyclical or point to deeper structural issues with the German economic model.
With a shrinking workforce, rising fiscal pressures, and declining global trade, is “Germanification” a cautionary tale for other advanced economies, including Australia?
We also examine the impact of China's growing dominance in key industries, particularly the automotive sector, where Chinese companies are now leading the world in EV production. Can Germany adapt and compete, or is its era of economic dominance over?
Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au
This week on the Dismal Science, Mark and Raph take a look at the latest Australian labour market figures and what it means for Mark's increasingly shaky call for a February rate cut.
Is the RBA being too pessimistic about what the unemployment rate associated with full employment needs to be?
Plus, the Dismal Science takes a metaphorical visit to Baku for COP 29 and finds “upside-down geopolitics” at play.
And will President Trump’s reelection derail the action items out of COP29?
Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au
Join Mark and Raph to unpack the potential economic implications of the US election result.
We examine some of the key economic policy pledges that President Elect President Donald Trump made during the campaign, from tariffs to taxes, and discuss the possible ramifications for interest rates, inflation, growth, and other economic variables.
President Trump's proposals could send US average tariff rates to their highest level since the 1934 Great Depression. What would this mean for inflation, the US dollar, and the global economy?
We also explore the potential impact of tax cuts and deregulation on growth and profits, as well as the implications for the Federal Reserve and US debt and deficits.
And is this a sign of a broader global shift away from neoliberalism?
Tune in to find out.
Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au
This week on The Dismal Science, we examine the latest economic data releases, including wage growth figures, consumer and business sentiment surveys, and the AICD's Director Sentiment Index.
The Wage Price Index showed annual growth slowing to 3.5%, a welcome development for the RBA in its fight against inflation. But with productivity growth stalling, will this be enough to see interest rate cuts in the near future?
Consumer sentiment surged in November, reaching its highest level since the first half of 2022, fuelled by optimism about the interest rate outlook and a strong labor market.
However, this optimism was tempered by the results of the US election, with sentiment declining sharply following the outcome.
Businesses also reported improved confidence in October, but the AICD's survey of directors painted a much bleaker picture, with concerns about inflation, interest rates, and a looming recession weighing heavily on sentiment.
Will the recent positive economic data prove to be a fleeting reprieve, or are we finally turning a corner?
Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au
The big news this week is the US presidential election. Markets are reacting in real time as results come in - we look at the volatility and what it means for Australia.
Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive month.
We examine the RBA's latest forecasts, which suggest a slightly softer economic outlook than previously predicted, with lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and slower inflation.
But is this bad or good when it comes to taming inflation?
Mark explains why this could actually be good news for those hoping for an interest rate cut.
Also on the agenda: the role of government spending in keeping the economy afloat, and whether now is the time for businesses to start investing.
Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au
This week we look at the latest Australian inflation figures.
The September quarter CPI figures came in slightly better than expected, with the headline numbers showing a decrease in inflation. This was largely driven by government rebates and falling fuel prices. However, services inflation remains stubbornly high.
Additionally, some commentators are suggesting a December rate cut is possible...will Mark hold firm to his February prediction?
Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au
Today we have an in-depth look at the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report, before returning home to dissect the bumper jobs numbers and latest consumer confidence numbers.
In brief, it was an optimistic outlook from the IMF, begging the question, is central bank credibility back? With that said, champagne flutes should remain in the fridge, as there are still a litany of risks to the global economy identified, and suggestions put forward for both governments and bureaucrats - but how likely are they to happen?
And then we revisit Mark's February prediction of our first rate cut in light of huge jobs numbers, and increasing consumer sentiment. Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: podcasts@aicd.com.au
Another week, another economic roller coaster. Join Mark and Raph to discuss the recent volatility in oil prices, driven by factors including the Israel-Iran conflict and speculation about Chinese stimulus measures. We then unpack the latest RBA minutes, analysing the central bank's current thinking on interest rates and its assessment of the economic outlook. Have they made a dovish turn? Finally, we take a look at the latest consumer and business confidence figures. Are Australians feeling more optimistic about the economy? Well, as usual these days, the story is mixed... If you'd like to give us feedback, feel free to email us at: publications@aicd.com.au And for a deeper dive, read Mark's weekly columns here.
Much to discuss on the agenda today.
We unpack recent housing data, exploring the slowdown in price and rent growth alongside lagging approvals.
Retail sales showed strength - but the RBA and other analysts disagree on why. Were they impacted by the weather, stage 3 tax cuts, or an early father's day? Mark will be the judge.
Additionally, Australia has hit a fiscal milestone with back-to-back budget surpluses for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, while the Productivity Commission has provided a sobering update on our productivity growth.
Finally, we'll discuss the dizzying array of factors impacting oil prices on top of the escalating Middle East conflict and what this means for the global economy.
We begin with a look at recent inflation data. While headline inflation has decreased, Mark explore why the underlying numbers suggest continued vigilance is necessary.
Our discussion then turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest decision to maintain current interest rates.
The focal point of our episode is China's economic situation. We address:
- The ongoing property sector challenges
- Weak consumer sentiment and deflationary pressures
- Policy responses from the People's Bank of China, including:
- Interest rate reductions
- Easing of bank reserve requirements
- Mortgage rate adjustments
- Liquidity measures for equity markets
We evaluate these interventions and their potential impact on China's economic trajectory, considering both domestic and global implications.
For a deeper dive into the weekly figures and trends, visit AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell's weekly column.
In this short but packed episode, we go through the complex economic landscape facing Australia and the world.
We discuss the significance of the still tight Australian labour market and its implications for monetary policy, dissect why the US Federal Reserve decided on a rather large 50 basis point rate cut, and explore how Middle East tensions could spark global economic instability. All these factors set the stage for a complex upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.
We love to hear your feedback, email us at: publications@aicd.com.au
Prompted by proposed changes to Australia's Reserve Bank, as well as increased criticism of central banks globally, today we discuss what central bank independence means, its historical development, and the evidence for its effectiveness.
Mark analyses key moments in the formation of modern central bank theory including "The golden age of central banks " of the pre-2008 era , the impact of the Global Financial Crisis, and the post-COVID inflation shock.
We also discuss the implications of central banks acting as "accountability sinks" and explore current challenges to their independence.
This episode aims to provide context for ongoing debates about the role of central banks in modern economies and why these issues matter. We'd love to hear from you as to whether you would enjoy more episodes that provide this type of context, would rather we stick to the latest data, or anything else! Please email us at: publications@aicd.com.au You can find more of Mark's analysis, including weekly economic data here.
We welcome back AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, fresh from his holiday, as we dive into the market turbulence that peaked while Mark was celebrating his dad’s 80th birthday in Saltburn.
We explore the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold steady on rates, as anticipated, and examine the global interest rate landscape, including hints of US rate cuts following the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole. We also dissect the clash between market expectations and the RBA’s timeline for cutting rates in Australia.
Plus, we take a closer look at the latest GDP report: with six consecutive quarters of per capita recession, growth driven largely by population expansion and public spending, and signs of weakness in the private sector as household consumption, savings, and private investment all fell.
It's our 200th episode and Ivan's last ever :( Mark turns the tables on him and asks what's changed in economics since we started the podcast and what he's learned along the way. Plus, an experiment in UBI and what we can expect from Trumponomics and Kamalanomics.
A big thank you to all of our listeners for getting us this far.
Mark Thirlwell is once again joined by Raphael Dixon to discuss the new consumer confidence survey, reavling falling confidence a drop, as well as expectations of an interest rate rise jump. Raph asks the question: doesn't this mean that we don't need to raise rates then because consumer behaviour has factored a raise in?
Topic two discusses the unlikely "marriage of convenience" between some renting mellenials and some debt free baby boomers, both hoping for rate hikes
And finally, birth rates: how do governments use fiscal policy to encourage people to have more babies? So far, not much seems to work.
Referenced articles:
The Economist - Can the rich world escape its baby crisis? (paywalled)
IMF - The New Economics of Fertility
Mark regails us with the vibe on the ground in Canberra. Plus, an around the grounds on:
• RBA Minutes
• Core logic house and rent price data
• Retail sales numbers
• Job ads
And the number of the weke this week asks; if climate change results in supply shocks become increasingly regular to the point of predicibility, should food inflation still be excluded from core inflation numbers?
Monthly infaltion numbers have come in hot, adding pressure on the RBA to lift rates. What does the upcoming French election tell us about Britain, bonds and post-covid fiscal policy? And does the much hyped Guzman Y Gomez IPO and subsequent share price pop suggest that burritios are recession proof?
Trade with China continues to flourish despite strategic and political tension. Does Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia mean we can continue to, as the Chinese saying goes, pull strongly against the raging tide? Plus, hawkish sounds from the RBA as the path grows ever narrower and the effect of WFH on real wages.
An end to the era of globalisation has led to developing countries once again falling behind. As the costs of fragmentation become apparent, should a small open economy be doing more to bring back global trade? Plus, continuing resilience in the jobs market, continuing weakness in overall growth, and higher for longer rates in the US.
Global shipping is gummed up again with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, renewed pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, and drought affecting the Panama canal. But could it get even worse? Plus, inflation picks up again in Australia and retail sales remain stagnant.
New Zealand economist Roger Dennis advises boards globally on long-term thinking and foresight. We spoke to him on how directors should think about the seemingly endless proliferation of risks, what he calls the paradox of perparedness, and whether Kiwis, living on the edge of the world, have a unique perspective on risk.
For more of Roger's thinking, visit his website.
The treasurer had a juggling act to perform in this budget: fiscal repair, cost-of-living relief, inflation reduction and productivity growth were all balls to keep in the air. How did he do? Plus, the job market weakens and wage growth falls.
The yen has plunged to a 34 year low requiring the Bank of Japan to spend billions to prop it up. Why are hedge funds attacking the yen? Plus, we preview the budget, higher for longer interest rates in the US and a weak retail sales number.
A Cook's tour of the global economy: we take in the European malaise, the Trump spectre over the US, the China shock 2.0, and a resurgence in migration.
Inflation remains stubborn in Australia, running hotter in the March quarter than economists expected. Is there now a chance that the next rate move might be up again rather than down? Plus, a slight softening in the jobs market and just how much does negative gearing impact property prices?
Industrial policy is making a comeback globally and Australia wants in on the action. Boosting supply chain resilience, accelerating the net zero transition, and mitigating geostrategic risk are touted as key benefits. But does it stack up economically? Plus, new stricter merger rules and more mixed confidence results.
A review into the supermarket code of conduct landed this week, raising fresh questions about competition. Can we raise prices for suppliers, while also lowering prices for consumers? Would increasing competition lead to more innovation? Or has the supermarket experience improved despite the lack of competition? Plus, strong US jobs numbers and an infleciton point in the AICD's Director Sentiment Index.
Questioning the official labour market data used to be the preserve of conspiracy theorists, but the surveys across the globe have been plagued by problems recently. Can we continue to trust these key economic indicators? Plus, dovish noises from the Reserve Bank on interest rates, as inflation continues to ease, though house prices march on.
Live at last week's Australian Governance Summit, we asked what could be done about Australia's languishing productivity: can policy make a difference? Will AI save us? Could it be as simple as building more houses? Plus, a first rate cut might be nearing and an extraordinary plunge in the jobless rate.
Regular listeners will notice some snazzy new cover art this week. Thanks to our fantastic designer Jana Clark and photographer Graham Jepson for the fresh look.
Australia's GDP per capital continues to go backwards as growth slows to snail's pace. Plus, we look ahead to next week's RBA meeting, Powell hints interest rate cuts might be imminent in the US and more Swiftonomics.
Inflation is falling but so is growth, is the path to a soft landing for Australia narrowing still? Plus, a deal for what it's worth at the WTO and the UK economy as Willy Wonka experience.
The World Trade Organisation met last week. Not that you'd know it. Is the dream of global trade done? Plus, with real wages finally growing, could the RBA really raise rates again?
An uptick in US inflation shows the path back down might not be smooth, plus back home the labour market cools, hyperinflation in Argentina, and is Bitcoin back?
After the new look RBA meeting, the governor now holds a media conference where she addressed the future path of interest rates, as well as Taylor Swift's effect on inflation. Plus, China acts to backstop its sagging equity markets.
Inflation is moderating in Australia and the IMF says the global economy is on "the final descent toward a soft landing". 2024 might be looking up. Plus, what to expect from next week's new look RBA meeting.
We look at the government's changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. How will this affect the distribution and will they be inflationary? Plus, business confidence plunges and the IMF warns against cutting rates any time soon.
Happy New Year listeners! Big ep to get us rolling:
Consumer confidence sliding, signs of slackening in the jobs market and weaker inflation point to the RBA holding in February, Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez, more weak numbers from China, Mark's apocalyptic beach reading, and the housing market marches on.
It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's forecasts and gaze into the crystal ball to see what's ahead in 2024.
Thank you to all of our listeners. Have a great break! We'll be back in January with more epsiodes.
The RBA will now speak with multiple voices with all board members expected to speak to the public. Will this lead to greater transparency or muddy the waters further? Plus, more bumper jobs growth, the MYEFO reveals another jump in tax receipts, Milei takes his razor to Argentine spending and another COP climate conference goes by.
"Australia's economy hit the wall in the September quarter," according to Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan. Disposable incomes have declined steeply and consumer spending is weak. Have the rate cuts done their job now? Could the next move be down rather than up? Plus, Venezualan revanchism and Guyana's oil and gas boom.
Self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei has won the Argentine presidential election. Do desperate times call for desperate measures as Argentina looks to escape hyperinflation? Plus, the RBA board worries about its credibility and the OpenAI board worries about the future of humanity.
Ivan's had another audio fail this week. Apologies. We know you come for Mark anyway.
The third quarter saw wages rise at a record rate in Australia and despite a slight increase in headline unemployment, the labour market is still tight. What's a central bank to do? Plus, are we seeing a soft landing in the US? Apologies for the audio on this one, a few technical issues.
With another rate rise last week and no easing in sight, Australia seems to have joined the higher for longer world. Are 'higher for longer' interest rates actually a sign of optimism about future growth? Or has excessive government debt globally pushed up rates? Plus, director sentiment falls again and a China growth surprise.
The signs are pointing to another rate rise next week, the first on Michele Bullock's watch, as inflation proves more stubborn than expected. Plus, strong retail sales figures and the IMF says it's time for governments around the world to tighten their belts.
With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world has become a more dangerous place. How should boards be thinking through the fracturing global order and geopolitical risk? Plus, the RBA sounds a hawkish note and a mixed jobs report.
We look at the wide-ranging work of Caludia Goldin, this year's recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics specifically "for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes”. Plus, we catch up on Michele Bullock's first meeting as RBA governor and what the waning of Pax Americana might mean for the global economy.
A mixed bag this week: the government's jobs white paper, another inflation spike, wilting retail sales and a glut in red wine.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to proceed carefully with any future changes to interest rats in the US. Does this mean we're now in a "higher for longer" world? Plus, oil market dynamics and NZ emerges from recession or does it?
Colourful property developer Tim Gurner caused an outcry calling for the unemployment rate to rise, saying "we need to see pain in the economy". How different is his message from the RBA's official line? Plus, the latest confidence numbers, a farewell speech from Lowe, a getting to know you speech from the incoming productivity commissioner, and the obesity wonder drug Ozempic and Danish GDP.
Governor Lowe's last RBA meeting and rates are on hold. Is the next move of the new era down? Plus, Australia enters a 'per capita recession' and the global solar boom.
Central bankers turned philosophical at last week's annual Jackson Hole conference as they contemplated the mistakes they have made over the last two years. Plus, the incoming Reserve Bank governor talks climate change, inflation continues to come down and the stifling effect of high interest rates on innovation.
Australia's growth will slow and its population age over the next forty years, putting pressure on the budget and more generally our standard of living, according to the government's latest Intergenerational Report. What can we do to jolt Australia out of this growth and productivity malaise? Plus, BRICS talk dedollarisation, Argentina talks dollarisation, and the case for bringing back the proper office.
China this week suspended its youth unemployment data, having registered a record high in June. It's one of a raft of economic series that China has pulled in recent years. How troubling a sign is this for the Chinese economy? Plus, unemployment in Australia ticks up, wages growth remains relatively subdued, Russia's crashing rouble, and Mark's mixed World Cup allegiances.
China's economy is experiencing a bout of deflation. Consumer demand is weak, the population is growing older and the property sector is undergoing a painful deleveraging. Is the Chinese economy about to stagnate like Japan in the 90s? Plus, the latest confidence numbers for Australia and CBA posts a record profit on the back of rising interest rates.
The RBA has kept interest rates on hold for the second meeting in a row. Are we now, finally, done with rate rises? Plus, the US government credit downgrade and industrial policy makes a comeback.
Inflation in Australia is coming down. Have we won the war? Should Governor Lowe feel stiff? Or will rates need to stay 'higher for longer' as services inflation continues to blaze? Plus, the IMF sounds cautiously optimistic on global growth and Mark gives us his reflections on the UK economy after his holiday.
The white smoke is billowing from Martin Place, we have a new RBA governor. So who is Michele Bullock? And what will Philip Lowe's legacy be? Mark is still on leave so Bennett joins Ivan to answer these questions.
To hear more of Bennett, listen to our new podcast, Boardroom Conversations, where he talks to some of Australia's leading directors aicd.com.au/news-media/boardroom-conversations
The US Fed 'skips' hiking this month but hints there's still more to come. Plus, the Australian labour market continues to boom even as confidence slides. The Dismal Science will now also be pausing for a few weeks as Mark is on holidays. Back soon.
Another rate rise brings the total tightening to 400bps in just over a year. Add in the disappointing first quarter GDP growth and this week seemed like a tipping point for the Australian economy. Are things about to get worse before they get better? Plus, the regulators come for crypto.
A US debt ceiling deal, a stubborn inflation number for Australia, the Chinese recovery slows and Ivan moves house.
With Narendra Modi's visit to Australia, we ask if economic diplomacy actually works. Plus, the debt ceiling draws closer and the AI boom gathers steam.
With the passing of Robert Lucas, the champion of rational expectations theory and one of the most influential economists of the last 50 years, we ask whether his legacy holds up. Plus, with unemployment edging up, consumer confidence down and wages continuing to disappoint, we look ahead to the RBA's June meeting.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has delivered the first budget surplus in 15 years, helped by the boom in jobs and commodity prices. The government has used the windfall to deliver a cost of living package targeted at the most vulnerable, but will the spending stoke inflation and prove counterproductive? Plus, the US is again facing a debt ceiling crisis and we say vale to the great Allan Gyngell AO.
Inflation eased off in the first quarter of the year and we appear to be past the peak. So will the RBA continue to leave rates on hold next week? Plus, more on the tight rental market.
The review of the RBA is in. We look at what's changing, what's not changing and the critique of the bank's performance.
The boom in jobs continues in Australia and consumer confidence is bouncing back, but does this mean another rate rise is on the horizon? Plus, US inflation, Sydney NIMBYs and the IMF's gloomy forecasts for the global economy.
A rapid fire episode as Mark and Ivan both battle colds.
The RBA pauses and house prices are on the march again. Will it be enough and where will it end?
The markets are expecting the RBA to pause the rate hikes next week with the global financial turmoil and inflation seemingly having peaked. Is Philip Lowe finally going to ease up on the beleaguered Australian mortgage holder? Plus, Deutsche Bank credit default swap shenanigans and we ask if the AI productivity revolution is already here.
In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, and they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and yet their second largest bank has still collapsed. What went wrong? It's a story of fraud, spying, kickbacks, Bulgarian drug-dealers and all-round Suisse poor risk management. Plus, the Fed keeps hiking through the turmoil, do bailouts sow the seeds of the next crisis, and JPMorgan is left holding a bag of rocks.
Apologies for Ivan's terrible audio in this episode. He was reporting from deep under the water where you can find Credit Suisse's AT-1 bonds.
We answer five big questions in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse:
- What happened at Silicon Valley Bank?
- Did the authorities get the response right?
- What even is a bank for?
- Is the Fed to blame?
- Could this happen in Australia?
We talk to directors about their outlook for the economy and the challenges they're facing, we catch up on this week's RBA and Fed news, and we ask if Australia is investing enough in AI.
Once again, we're live from the Australian Governance Summit. We talk RBA, of course, whether the world is stabilising again after years of crisis and the risks of artifical general intelligence.
As criticism of the RBA governor Philip Lowe mounts, we ask how high will interest rates go, what could he have done differently and is the Reserve Bank's independence in jeopardy?
For our first episode of the year, we look ahead at the five big questions for 2023:
- Will the RBA keep hiking rates?
- Will there be a recession in the US?
- Will the Chinese economy recover now that the zero covid policy has been abandoned?
- Will the war in Ukraine continue to disrupt the global economy?
- Is crypto done?
It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's quiz and look ahead to 2023. Plus, are gas price caps a good idea? Has inflation in the US peaked? And another great jobs report in Australia.
Thank you to all of our listeners. Have a great break! We'll be back in January with more episodes.
A new AI chatbot called ChatGPT has us asking if the robot productivity revolution is nigh. Plus, a final rate rise for the year, another healthy GDP number and Australia's current account once again slips into deficit.
Inflation is showing signs of waning. Have we put the genie back in the bottle? Plus, a non-apology apology from the RBA and with protesters on the streets, is the Chinese grand bargain on stability and growth at an end?
Another climate conference, another cop out? We look at the progress, or lack thereof, at COP-27, including an agreement to establish a 'loss and damage' fund for poor nations. Plus, should central banks buy bitcoin? And the cost of the World Cup.
As criticism builds, the RBA has reviewed its forward guidance given during the pandemic. Has it permanently undermined its credibility? And how will it communicate to the public in future? Plus, the Australian economy keeps adding jobs, wages might finally be moving and a Korean credit crunch.
DSGE models, which power central banks' interest rate decisions, are under fire. Can we trust them? Plus, the fall of crypto wunderkind Sam Bankman-Fried crashes the market and everyone is nervous about the Australian economic outlook.
With energy prices continuing to soar, the government is exploring its options to keep the lid on. Should Australia be sending less gas offshore, reserving some for the local market? Plus, the RBA and Fed continue to hike rates and what car washing tells us about the UK's economic stagnation.
The inflation rate has surged to a 32-year high, but how will the RBA respond at their upcoming meeting? Plus: the key points from this week’s budget, the delayed release of China’s GDP numbers and what do mozzarella pizza toppings tell us about India’s GST system?
The federal budget is out next week. What should we expect the Treasurer to announce on Tuesday night? Plus: fresh employment numbers, insights from the Director Sentiment Index and China's delayed GDP data.
The IMF has released its latest forecast for the world economy, and the outlook is pretty grim. What does slowing global growth mean for Australia? Plus, fresh consumer confidence numbers, this year’s Nobel Prize winners, and what does the Census tell us about Australian’s working habits?
The RBA has raised rates, but it was a smaller hike than many were expecting. What could the Reserve Bank be planning for next month? Plus: the debate around “Stage Three” tax cuts, a surprise policy U-turn in the UK, and more uncertainty for China’s beleaguered property sector.
Central banks across the globe have been lifting interest rates over the last week. The RBA is almost certain to do the same at its upcoming meeting, but how high will the rate rise be? Plus: major moves for stocks and bonds, recession fears in the US and the British pound sinks to a record low.
Central banks across the globe have been lifting interest rates over the last week. The RBA is almost certain to do the same at its upcoming meeting, but how high will the rate rise be? Plus: major moves for stocks and bonds, recession fears in the US and the British pound sinks to a record low.
The RBA Governor has faced some tricky questions at a parliamentary committee. What did Philip Lowe have to say on house prices, rising rates and tax? Plus, fresh unemployment numbers, the royal family’s finances, and a big change for one of the major crypto currencies.
The RBA Governor has faced some tricky questions at a parliamentary committee. What did Philip Lowe have to say on house prices, rising rates and tax? Plus, fresh unemployment numbers, the royal family’s finances, and a big change for one of the major crypto currencies.
The Reserve Bank keeps hiking and there’s more to go Governor Lowe says. But with protesters hitting Martin Place, will the bank be able to withstand the public pressure to slow up? Plus, Australian GDP keeps growing despite the cost pressures, job ads are up again and we talk about the persistence of inequality in Communist China.
The Reserve Bank keeps hiking and there’s more to go Governor Lowe says. But with protesters hitting Martin Place, will the bank be able to withstand the public pressure to slow up? Plus, Australian GDP keeps growing despite the cost pressures, job ads are up again and we talk about the persistence of inequality in Communist China.
Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to 'keep at it' raising interest rates, house prices in Australia are falling, we take a look at the ideas from the Jobs Summit, and the future of Ethereum.
Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to 'keep at it' raising interest rates, house prices in Australia are falling, we take a look at the ideas from the Jobs Summit, and the future of Ethereum.
Australia's flash Purchasing Managers' Index has fallen into contractionary territory. Is it a sign of a slowdown to come? Plus, we preview this week's Jackson Hole monetary policy jamboree.
Australia's flash Purchasing Managers' Index has fallen into contractionary territory. Is it a sign of a slowdown to come? Plus, we preview this week's Jackson Hole monetary policy jamboree.
The latest data out of China shows the slowdown deepening. The People's Bank of China has bucked the trend in the rest of the world by cutting interest rates. Will Chinese authorities also be forced to reconsider their zero covid stance? Plus, Australian unemployment falls again but wages remain sluggish and UK inflation hits double digits.
As tensions increase between China and Taiwan, we look at the risks for the global economy. Plus, business and consumer confidence continue to diverge and US inflation eases.
The IMF says the outlook for global growth is increasingly gloomy and uncertain, Australia's productivity growth is its lowest in 60 years, the Reserve Bank continues to hike rates and the US is in recession. We're not called The Dismal Science for nothing.
The IMF says the outlook for global growth is increasingly gloomy and uncertain, Australia's productivity growth is its lowest in 60 years, the Reserve Bank continues to hike rates and the US is in recession. We're not called The Dismal Science for nothing.
Is the situation in Sri Lanka a harbinger of an emerging market debt crisis? We look at the pressure emerging markets face from rising costs and interest rates. Plus, we catch up on the extraordinary unemployment result for June, the RBA review and the mortgage boycott in China.
Who should be on the Reserve Bank board? Economists are calling for more, uh, economists. But is monetary policy an entirely technocratic endeavour? Or should the views from businesspeople and workers be represented? Plus, retail sales are holding up, a call to arms from the central bankers' central bank and Russia's debt default.
The market has the cash rate in Australia at 3.6% by year's end, up from the current 0.85%. This would be the sharpest tightening in three decades. RBA Governor Lowe thinks this is unlikely but concedes the market has had a better record than the bank at forecasting rates. So who is right? And can the economy handle it? Plus, iron ore plummets and NSW takes on stamp duty.
A bit going on. The Fed is tightening, markets are freaking, crypto is collpasing. Are we headed for a global recession? While at home, will the Fair Work Commission's decision to raise the minimum wage fuel inflation?
The world is facing a period of prolonged stagflation akin to the 70s, according to the World Bank. Are there any reasons for hope amid the ongoing global omnicrisis? And what lessons can we take from the 70s experience? Plus, the Reserve Bank's biggest rate hike in two decades and what to do about gas prices.
Amid calls for a wide-ranging review of the RBA, we look at what's at stake. Plus, house prices fall, a preview of next week's interest rate decision, Q1 GDP and trouble in the Eurozone.
Paul Keating said when the government changes, the country changes. But does the economy change? We ponder the economic implications of the election. Plus, people are moving jobs again, capex goes backwards and China's slowdown.
Unemployment is now lower than it's ever been but real wages continue to go backwards. What can we do about it? Plus, is it a good idea to let people draw on their super to buy a house?
The RBA has lifted the cash rate for the first time in more than a decade. How much more is there to go? And is there a risk of a hard landing if they go too quickly?
We run through the latest labour market data and ask whether it's ok for a Prime Ministerial candidate not to know the unemployment rate. Plus, business and consumer confidence, US inflation and how far might house prices fall?
The Reserve Bank is signalling it will raise rates imminently, while the Fed Reserve is about to embark on quantitative tightening. But how soon and how quickly can central banks normalise monetary policy without scaring the horses?
The budget position is better than expected and treasury forecasts are rosy for the Australian economy. Are they overly optimistic given the uncertainty in the world? Plus, retail sales rebound from omicron and the yield curve inverts again.
An OECD simulation warns of a 1 percentage point hit to global growth from the war in Ukraine, consumer confidence dives on cost of living concerns and we preview the budget.
The global economy is being hit hard by supply shocks - first war in Ukraine and now the covid resurgence in China. Will higher food and commodity prices flow through to inflation expectations? What are central banks to do? How dependent is the German economy on Russian gas? And what is going on in the nickel market? Plus, the Australian jobs miracle continues.
We are reposting this episode because it originally had an audio glitch. Apologies. Ivan's fault.
Surging prices, war in Ukraine, the spectre of nuclear conflict – how worried should we be? This episode was recorded live last week in Melbourne at the Australian Governance Summit.
Wages growth is off the pandemic floor but remains historically weak. How low can unemployment go in Australia before we start to see inflationary pressures? Plus, we look at the potential eocnomic impact of war in Ukraine.
We are back! Markets are roiling at the prospect of interest rate hikes over 2022. Will central banks take away the punchbowl? Should we be worried about a crash? Plus, a mixed confidence picture in Australia as we emerge from Omciron and the latest on Evergrande's debt workout.
It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's quiz, look ahead to 2022 and run through The Dismal Science summer reading list. Plus, the final extremely strong jobs numbers for 2022, Biden's troubled stimulus bill and the MYEFO. We'll be back with more episodes in late January.
Directors have identified labour shortages as the biggest economic challenge facing Australian business, according to the AICD's latest Director Sentiment Index. Plus, the Australian residential property market passes $9 trillion in value, record job ads and European carbon prices skyrocket.
Our founding economist Stephen Walters, now NSW Chief Economist, comes back for our 100th episode to reflect on what's changed in economics since we started in 2017 and his role in advising the NSW government during the pandemic. Plus, 3Q GDP turns out not to be as bad as we feared, Omicron looms on the horizon, another record current account surplus and house prices keep on going up.
Grab bag this week for our 99th episode: Four more years for Jerome Powell, President Biden taps the US strategic oil reserves, PMIs turn positive for Australia and decentralised autonomous organisations.
The COP26 climate talks were largely a failure against their stated goals. So is there any hope for the future of negotiations and the planet? Plus, wages remain subdued, the RBA's view on the inflation debate and the war for talent.
We go back to the Paris Agreement and ask if its vision, particularly restraining warming to less than 2 degrees, can be met at COP26 and beyond. Plus, central banks begin the task of unwinding unconventional pandemic support programs.
The government announces a 'plan' for net zero, plus is the inflation genie coming for Australia?
The China economy is creaking. Could the crash be coming and what can the authorities do to stop it? Plus, the market questions the RBA, lockdowns hit the job market and how COVID impacts football performance.
NSW reopens and spending takes off, the Great Resignation, a global tax deal and a Nobel Prize for natural experiments.
Gas shortages are leading to spiraling energy prices across the world. Are we headed for another era of stagflation? Plus, APRA tries to cool the housing market, another record trade surplus for Australia, and should the US mint a trillion dollar coin?
"Everything Evergrande owns belongs to the Party and the Chinese people," Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan once said. Will the Chinese people now own the crashing property company's $300bn of debt or is China headed for a financial crisis? Plus, housing affordability, monetary tapering and vaccinating the world. This is a long one but we're taking next week off so listen at your leisure.
Large parts of the economy are in 'wait, survive and see' mode, according to RBA governor Philip Lowe. We look at the latest deceptive unemployment data, the OECD's Australian economy fan fiction for a post-pandemic world, house prices and urban planning, as well as US inflation, the softening in the Chinese economy and central banks' role in fighting climate change. It's a big one!
The RBA is expecting the economy to bounce back in December but should the halting recovery of other more open economies around the world be tempering our optimism? Plus, is the China property bubble about to burst?
The Delta lockdowns have caused widespread job losses and decimated consumer demand. Were economic policymakers inadequately prepared for the downside risks of a new COVID strain? Plus, Q2 GDP, takeaways from this year's Jackson Hole conference, and the Taliban economy.
The latest confidence numbers tell a tale of two Australias as the bickering continues over the national COVID strategy. Plus, the case for board diversity.
As more of Australia goes into lockdown, the RBA is maintaining what some are describing as a 'bizarrely' optimistic view of the recovery. Plus, a weird jobs report and the OG gold standard.
Despite the lockdowns, businesses and consumers are clinging to vaccine hope. Plus, the IPCC's Code Red, US infrastructure and China's billionaires.
Guided by the Doherty Institute modelling, National Cabinet has outlined the path out, but much is still uncertain. Plus, can cash incentives work for vaccinations and the rise of buy now pay later. Apologies for the audio on this one, we had some technical difficulties.
Base effects are starting to show up as inflation spikes in Australia. But with Delta ravaging the Australian and world economies, is inflation the least of our concerns? Plus, UK's Freedom Day two weeks on.
The shut down of the construction industry is another hammer blow to the NSW economy. Are policymakers doing enough to soften the impact? Plus, vaccine hesitancy and we ask if hosting the Olympics is worth it.
Starting local then going global, we talk about the economic cost of the latest lockdowns before doing some virtual economic tourism taking in the G20 finance conference in Venice, climate change, the latest on global inflation and the value of mRNA vaccines.
The government announces its four phase plan to return to a kind of normal. Will it work? Plus, lockdowns depress confidence and jobs, more on the global minimum company tax and the RBA begins to taper stimulus.
With almost half of Australia's population plunged back into lockdown as the Delta variant spreads, do we need to revise the rosy forecasts from earlier in the year for pandemic recovery? Plus, a job vacancy boom, house prices keep going and European tourism.
Australia's unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1%, below the pre-pandemic level, and approaching a 'four in front of it', the target level for the government. So what's next for policy and will wage growth follow? Plus, inflation comes roaring back in the US and an Australia-UK free trade deal.
Job vacancies are at an all-time high, yet there is still slack in the labour market. Is the economy getting worse at matching workers to jobs? Plus, confidence slips back, the G7 agrees to a global minimum tax and is Biden's infrastructure package a stimulus bridge too far.
Australia's economy is now larger than it was pre-pandemic but the slow rollout of the vaccine continues to threaten the recovery. We dig into the latest GDP numbers and ask if we need more incentives for people to get jabbed. Plus, house prices, the Victorian lockdown and the RBA says watch this space.
Global supply chains are breaking down with not enough capacity to meet demand for everything from semiconductors to furniture. What is going on and will it lead to an outbreak in inflation? Plus, the IMF's plan to end the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unemployment keeps ticking down but wages still aren't moving. So is the relationship between unemployment and inflation broken? Plus, the latest confidence numbers, productivity in the care economy and BitCoin's wild ride.
This year's budget embeds the fiscal revolution that began last year. We look at what's in this big spending budget and whether the debt is sustainable. Plus, the RBA's latest forecasts and US jobs disappoint. Apologies for Ivan's awful audio this week - we had some technical difficulties recording remotely.
We parse the latest statements of the RBA and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for hidden meaning on the recovery of the economy. Plus, house prices, a budget preview and sin taxes.
Mark says Treasurer Frydenberg has found the new fiscal religion on debt and deficits, plus weak inflation, jobs come off as JobKeeper ends and the latest from our own Director Sentiment Index.
Digital money is hot and central bankers want in. What is a central bank digital currency, how would it work and how would it be different from cryptocurrencies? Plus, more good news on the jobs front and what the European Super League proposal says about the global economy.
The vaccine rollout troubles continue as the government abandons its target. Is it time to downgrade forecasts? Will Australia be cut off from the world? And are we getting our risk calculus wrong? Plus, the latest confidence and jobs numbers.
The Australian property market is once again off to the races. What's driving it? What, if anything, should policymakers do about it? And will Ivan ever be able to afford a nice home?
Plus, more trouble for the vaccine rollout, new IMF forecasts for global recovery and Biden's plan to have multinationals pay more tax.
(We are a little late getting this one out, we recorded prior to the new advice on the Astra Zeneca vaccine for under 50s.)
We take a break from regular programming this week to bring you a conversation from the Australian Governance Summit between Mark and Harvard Business School professor Rebecca Henderson on her book Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire.
With fears it may once again be on the rise, we talk all things inflation. What causes it? Why is it bad? And is it coming back? Plus, how much slack is left in the labour market and has the fun stopped for GameStop?
Australia is a global laggard on the vaccine rollout and is well off the pace to meet its targets. So what is the rest of the world getting right, what are we getting wrong and should we be concerned? Plus, employment gets back to pre-pandemic levels and what is a non-fungible token?
The US is about to embark on a grand fiscal experiment to run the economy hot, while in Australia Governor Philip Lowe is promising the same on the monetary side until 2024. We look at the new radical orthodoxy. Plus, the latest GDP numbers, the government attempts to save the tourism industry and the city or the bush.
Crises change economic thinking. Live from the Australian Governance Summit, we look at what economists have learned from the pandemic, plus the latest jobs numbers and is inflation coming back?
We recorded this episode on 1 March.
We look at the IMF's forecasts for global growth in 2021 and its policy recommendations for recovery. Plus, confidence in Australia is up again and Bitcoin mining's effect on the planet.
On a short break now till the first week of March.
We unpick the GameStop phenomenon to see what it all means. Is this the end of short-selling, the efficient markets hypothesis and shareholder capitalism as we know it? Are memes the new analysis? Or is it a lot of fun signifying nothing? Plus, the RBA's outlook for the year, the Biden stimulus and new thinking on the minimum wage.
We mark the end of the longest of years with the longest of episodes. Ivan quizzes Mark on what's in store for 2021, plus the final (excellent) jobs numbers for the year, the government releases its update on the improving economic outlook, the latest on Brexit and Mark's summer reading list.
We'll be back with more episodes in late January.
Confidence numbers are up and people are feeling optimistic as we approach the end of the roughest of years. Plus, tourism post-COVID and is Facebook a monopoly?
Australia is officially out of recession but GDP is still well down year-on-year. The RBA says it's 'ready to do more if necessary'. Plus, more good news on the vaccine and what's going on with Australian coal exports to China.
Biden names former Fed Governor Janet Yellen as his nominee for Treasury Secretary. What does her appointment mean for US economic policy? Plus did JobKeeper work, super debates and Bitcoin is back.
We look at the NSW government's plans to get people 'out and about' and to abolish stamp duty. Plus, a paradoxically good jobs report and some rare good news on trade.
After a rough year, finally a week of good news: a vaccine might be around the corner and confidence is up. Plus we wrap the US election and look at the latest threats from China on trade.
Biden looks home but it's close. Did the polls get this one right or wrong? How have markets reacted? And what are the prospects now for a much needed stimulus package? Plus, the RBA wakes from its 'monetary slumber' and announces its first foray into quantitative easing. Is it now out of ammo?
We look ahead to next week's US presidential election. Is it the most significant since the depression as some commentators claim? What does it mean for the world and will Trump or Biden win? Plus, a look at the Q3 inflation data and next week's Cup day RBA meeting.
The COVID recession will leave Australia permanently poorer and its population smaller than it otherwise would have been. But are there choices we can make that will help us catch up? Plus a catch-up on the recent economic numbers after our break and the AICD's latest Director Sentiment Index.
The budget heralds a new fiscal era, according to Mark. We look at the record debt and deficit numbers, the 'heroic' forecasts and the policies the government is betting on to restore growth.
What is a K-shaped recovery and are we in one? Plus we preview the budget that Prime Minister Morrison is calling the most important since World War II.
On our 50th episode, we ask whether October's budget or even lower interest rates can supercharge the recovery, which the RBA is describing as a 'slow grind'. Plus disappointing payroll jobs numbers, falling retail sales and Paul Keating gives the RBA a spray.
Surprise good news on the jobs front with unemployment falling below 7 per cent for the first time since the pandemic started. So where are the jobs coming from? Plus house prices, the US fed commits to not lifting interest rates for the long haul, New Zealand goes into recession and the effect unemployment on sleep.
With new data out on the Australian corporate footprint overseas, we ask what's the future of the foreign outpost in a post-pandemic world. Plus a speed round on this week's economic data.
The US Federal Reserve has changed the way it makes monetary policy decisions for the world's largest economy. Its former chair Janet Yellen said that the changes would appear subtle to most "normal human beings". So why is it such a big deal for economists? Plus the latest quarterly GDP numbers put Australia officially in its first recession in three decades.
This episode was recorded on 3 September.
The Federal government looks to curb China's influence in the states, plus the Victorian situation continues to take its toll on jobs and investment.
We look at the latest GDP data from Scandinavia and ask whether Sweden has gotten the benefit of a more lenient approach to lockdowns. Plus RBA Governor Philip Lowe responds to his critics.
The Victorian second wave seems to have passed its peak but the lockdown continues to weigh down confidence, the RBA's new set of downbeat forecasts and wages growth slows to record lows. Apologies for the dismal audio quality on this one. We had some home technical problems in the home studios this week.
The US and Europe experienced ugly contractions in the second quarter, though China seems to be out the other side. Plus what the Victorian restrictions mean for the rest of the economy, the resilience of Australian exports and Zoom fatigue.
Australia has just experienced its worst deflation in 70 years. Should we be worried? Plus falling confidence, a rising dollar, more job losses, paid pandemic leave and the Robinhood effect.
The 'eye-watering' debt and deficit numbers released in the mini budget, the government extends JobKeeper, the RBA governor takes aim at Modern Monetary Theory, and the coronavirus spike in Victoria and NSW continues to weigh on confidence.
Should governments be more transparent in their thinking about the economy at a time of uncertainty? Plus the Victorian spike undermines confidence in the recovery and the problems with how global public health is funded.
Could this recession leave permanent scars on the economy? Plus the Victorian COVID spike dents confidence, the turn in the job market, the Fed buys Apple bonds and twenty years of the GST.
The grim IMF forecasts, record low job vacancies, what the Victorian spike means for the national economy and a very wonky discussion on the future of monetary policy.
More heartbreaking jobs numbers, the mystery of why sharemarkets are so high when the world is so low and directors call on the government to get radical.
It's another long one this week. We've divided the topics up into chapters again. If you skip forward, we won't hold it against you.
Australia's GDP contracted in the first quarter and Australia is now in its first recession in nearly thirty years. Are there any positives we can take from the latest GDP data? Plus New Zealand eliminates coronavirus and Ivan gets a test.
We're late getting this one out but we will be back to our regular schedule with another episode this week.
Treasury made a $60 billion blunder on JobKeeper. Now what should we do with the spare money? Plus negative interest rates, the death of Oliver Williamson, global trade and superspreading.
This is a big episode (every minute represents approx. $1bn of the JobKeeper shortfall). We've divided up the topics into chapters. If you skip forward, we won't hold it against you.
A record number of Australians lost their jobs in April and now one in five workers is either unemployed or underemployed. Plus the RBA's thinking on the property market, will working from home change the CBD and a rare cameo from our former Chief Economist, Stephen Walters.
The Reserve Bank has set out three scenarios for the Australian economy depending on how we go over the next six months in curbing the coronavirus. Plus the horror US jobs report, retaliatory China tariffs and confidence in Australia picks up.
We're a little late getting this one out. Apologies to our loyal listeners. We recorded this last week before the Australian jobs numbers were released. We'll have another episode out later this week covering those.
Rising tensions over the Australian government's calls for an inquiry into the origins of coronavirus have raised old questions about our dependence on China. Plus more bad jobs news and the economics of vaccine development.
The coronavirus crisis has seen steep spikes in the prices of some goods and dramatic falls in others. Which should worry us more? Plus GDP growth in the US is turning out even worse than expected and we look at research into the media's influence on coronavirus cases.
There is some speculation that the lives lost due to the recession could outnumber those from the coronavirus itself. But the evidence from past downturns might surprise you. Plus the latest from China, what's going on with oil prices and the ugly jobs numbers start rolling in for Australia.
After two decades obsessing over budget surpluses, Australia is entering a new normal with a massive run-up in government debt to stop the economy from flatlining during the coronavirus crisis. Should we be worried and how will we ever pay it back?
With a coronavirus vaccine expected to take 12 to 18 months, smart people are starting to think about what steps we can take till then to quash the virus while getting back some semblance of normality.
As the global economy goes into freefall, policymakers are faced with a dilemma: how do they slow activity enough to halt the spread of coronavirus, while at the same time providing enough stimulus to keep the economy going.
Mark and Ivan discuss how bad the coronavirus crisis could get, what the impact might be on GDP and whether there is hope for flattening the curve.
Are there any positives to take from the latest GDP numbers? Is the RBA about to embark on QE? And is the property market back?
With Mark back from holidays, we catch up on the RBA's historic rate cut early this month and do a Nobel edition of the number of the week.
Special guest Jamie Smyth of the Financial Times helps Mark and Ivan make sense of the Brexit omnishambles.
This episode was recorded on 4 September, the day after Boris Johnson's government lost its majority in the House of Commons and the morning of the start of the fourth Ashes test.
What the hell is an inverted yield curve and should we be worried?
This episode was recorded on 22 August.
Finally, we are back!
New AICD chief economist Mark Thirlwell joins Ivan to talk about why Mark fell in love with economics, the US-China trade war, whether the RBA has failed and the AICD's number of the week.
This comeback episode was recorded on 8 August.
In the first episode of the year, Stephen and Ivan catch up on the 'boomy' November retail sales and the surprising midyear budget review.
In this episode, recorded in early December, Stephen and Ivan look ahead to 2018. Will the Reserve Bank continue to stay its hand? Will wages growth finally pick up? And what's the outlook for the Australian and global economies?
Stephen and Ivan talk about the 'terrible' August retail sales and the better than expected FY17 budget position.
In this catch-up episode recorded in September, Stephen and Ivan talk about June quarter GDP and the August jobs report. Then AICD policy adviser Matt McGirr comes in to explain the newly passed safe harbour reforms.
Stephen and Ivan discuss the recent spike in the Australian dollar, what it means for the RBA's growth forecasts and whether you should be buying foreign currency for that overseas holiday now.
Stephen and Ivan do a close reading of RBA governor Philip Lowe's latest speech on the labour market.
Stephen and Ivan take look at why the minutes from the RBA board's July meeting moved markets, as well as the June jobs numbers.
For this comeback episode, we catch up on the latest economic data, Ivan asks for a pay rise and we dive into the census.
In this bonus episode of The Dismal Science, Ivan interviews Jeff Gramm, hedge fund manager and author of Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism.
The book, which was on the AICD's summer reading list, traces the history of shareholder activism through eight famous shareholder letters and touches on many themes relevant to directors, including the relationship between board and management, director independence, the role of proxy advisers and the perils of groupthink.
It’s Stephen’s birthday and it’s the budget! What a time to be the AICD Chief Economist. Discussed in this episode: [1:01] May RBA decision
[1:14] Copy-and-paste March decision
[1:40] April RBA decision
[1:45] April RBA minutes
[2:53] AICD Director Sentiment Index
[3:35] 2H16 Director Sentiment Index
[5:31] NAB March Business Survey
[6:03] Consumer confidence still subdued
[6:32] Treasurer’s good/bad debt speech
[6:37] Badgerys Creek airport
[6:41] Inland rail
[6:52] Company tax cut
[6:59] Stephen on tax reform
[7:52] South Australia renewables debate
[8:35] Budget countdown
[8:58] Treasurer’s flags housing package
[9:29] Negative gearing changes ruled out
[9:52] Retiree incentives to downsize
[10:06] Salary sacrificing a deposit
[10:21] Barbecue stoppers
[10:53] AICD’s negative gearing position
[11:43] Health and education good debt?
[12:17] $50bn infra package
[12:20] 2014 $50bn promise
[12:48] Stephen on infrastructure debt
[13:18] Snowy hydro plan
[13:38] Sydney second airport history
[14:15] 2014 proposed university cuts
[14:26] Abbott’s Gonski unity ticket
[14:33] Gonski double backflip
[14:36] Turnbull questions Gonski
[14:45] Gonski Company Director profile
[14:57] Gonski 2.0
[15:47] Higher education cuts
[16:07] Gonski 1.0
[16:23] Gonski and the forward estimates
[16:28] More or less funding for schools?
[16:51] 2.0 changes to status quo
[17:10] Greens support
[17:17] Private school cuts
[17:38] Gonski 2.0 Labor strategy
[18:29] ’Overfunded’ cuts consensus
[19:10] i give a gonski campaign
[19:34] Gonski and Turnbull schoolmates
[21:14] Labor’s Mediscare campaign
[21:31] PBS generics push
[22:21] Medicare rebate freeze to be lifted?
[22:48] Fairfax strike
[23:33] Government bonds on issue
[24:02] OECD government debt-to-gdb
[24:45] Net operating vs net cash balance
[25:07] Register for Stephen’s budget webinar
Tweet at us @aicdirectors or message us on Facebook with feedback on the show or suggestions for upcoming topics.
This week Stephen and Ivan take credit for the Treasurer getting religion on debt and discuss inflation coming back within the Reserve Bank’s target range. Discussed in this episode: [0:42] Treasurer’s good/bad debt speech
[1:00] Stephen on infrastructure debt
[2:16] Morrison’s 2016 position
[3:43] Net operating vs net cash balance
[3:55] Jim Chalmers' Better Budgeting
[5:23] Operational vs capital budgets
[6:13] Stephen on 1Q17 CPI data
[6:24] RBA’s inflation target
[9:12] RBA early adopter of inflation targeting
[9:20] NZ pioneers inflation targeting
[9:37] Gold standard
[9:39] Monetary policy regimes
[9:44] Milton Friedman’s k-percent rule
[10:58] Nod to the monetarists
[15:40] Expansions don’t die of old age
[15:55] Wage-price spiral
[16:20] Japanese deflation
[16:47] Deflation and the Depression
[17:13] Disinflation
[17:34] Quantitative easing
[17:55] Calculating CPI
[18:42] Include housing in CPI?
[21:29] Unexpected brief 2016 deflation
[21:35] RBA cut following deflation
[22:28] Underlying inflation still subdued
[23:15] Inflation target review
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This week Stephen and Ivan talk about making infrastructure sexy again, as well as the latest labour market data and the ongoing jobs/housing dilemma of the RBA.
Discussed in this episode:
[0:59] February jobs disaster
[1:11] Stephen on the March jobs numbers
[1:48] Jobs report sceptics
[2:35] 2014 ABS error
[3:42] April RBA minutes
[5:42] ANZ's job ads data
[5:54] NAB business survey
[7:03] Polling is getting harder
[9:08] Blueprint for Growth
[11:30] Snowy Mountains Scheme
[12:14] PM’s Snowy reboot
[13:12] Keynesian stimulus
[13:17] Governor Lowe on infrastructure
[14:34] Grattan Institute on infrastructure
[14:59] Cost-benefit analysis
[15:02] NBN’s lack of cost-benefit analysis
[15:13] NBN cost estimates
[15:33] Infrastructure Australia
[15:38] Infrastructure Australia priority list
[16:22] AICD’s Director Sentiment Index
[18:02] South Australian energy crisis
[18:20] Elon Musk to the rescue
[20:12] Stephen on infrastructure borrowing
[21:27] 457 visas abolished
[22:57] University concerns
[23:09] Tech sector concerns
[23:43] Benefits of skilled migration
[24:02] Value to businesses
[24:23] Worrying protectionism
[24:46] Trump’s H-1B visa executive order
[24:56] Budget countdown
[25:07] Register for Stephen’s Budget webinar
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This week Stephen and Ivan talk about the regulator crackdown on interest-only loans and the AICD's Blueprint for Growth, which outlines our national reform agenda.
Discussed in this episode:
[0:46] APRA interest-only loan crackdown
[0:57] RBA Governor's property warning
[1:14] Bank executive comments
[1:33] APRA’s original 2014 restrictions
[3:44] RBA’s April interest rate decision
[4:05] Council of Financial Regulators
[4:41] Glenn Stevens on ‘crazy’ house prices
[5:17] RBA turns downbeat
[5:27] Surprise jobless rate increase
[6:07] AICD’s Blueprint for Growth
[7:06] AICD education programs
[7:37] Stephen on infrastructure
[7:50] Negative gearing escalation
[8:14] Morrison: “We have a spending problem.”
[8:49] Morrison: “We have an earnings problem.”
[9:14] 2016 budget spending GDP share
[14:07] Superannuation tax concessions cut
[14:12] SME company tax cuts
[14:22] Tax efficiency
[15:15] Regressive tax
[15:35] Land tax
[16:17] Milton Friedman on tax
[17:11] Australian current account deficits
[17:53] Negative gearing in 2016 election
[18:20] CGT discount introduced in 1999
[19:16] Government considering CGT changes
[19:30] Henry tax review
[21:58] Where Ivan misquotes Keynes
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On this episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan talk Brexit and welcome their first guest, AICD Senior Policy Adviser Lysarne Pelling, who came in to discuss proposed safe harbour laws that could save companies from painful insolvencies.
Discussed in this episode:
[0:59] UK triggers article 50
[1:15] Stephen's reaction the day of the Brexit vote
[1:35] Maastricht Treaty
[2:09] >50% of UK trade is with the EU
[2:24] Gloomy forecasts for UK economy
[3:58] Requirement EU 27 unanimity
[4:11] Nationalist parties on the rise in Europe
[4:58] Impact on UK financial services
[9:55] Draft insolvency law reforms
[10:41] When does safe harbour apply?
[10:52] Severe penalties for insolvent trading
[12:27] Insolvency law in UK and Singapore
[13:24] Arrium administration's effect on Whyalla
[15:43] Distressed debt funds
[15:55] US Chapter 11 provision
[16:51] Productivity Commission on an Australian Chapter 11
[19:20] Email Lysarne your thoughts
[20:00] RBA cash rate
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In this special episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan discuss the housing market. Is it a bubble? Should regulators be concerned? And what can we do to make housing more affordable?
Discussed in this episode:
[0:48] Avocado toast
[0:57] Housing affordability in the budget
[4:49] Australian household debt
[6:29] APRA concerns (paragraph 5)
[6:55] RBA's subtle shift on housing
[9:28] NINJA loans
[11:20] "Get a good job that pays good money."
[15:19] Superannuation housing plan under consideration?
[19:21] Sydney annual house appreciation
[19:59] Sydney's average house-to-income ratio (second only to Hong Kong)
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