4 Down Territory: Recent Episodes
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Sam and Brian discuss myriad off-the-field issues this week, react to the most recent set of committee rankings and, as always, give their week 12 picks. Enjoy!
For most of the season, I have tried to come to you each week not only with picks, but also with some non-football themed tiers. That gives us a little something extra and fun to talk about, and it shows that I’m not just a one-dimensional meathead (no offense if that is how you categorize yourself.) We aren’t doing that this week though. This week I’m going full meathead. We’re just gonna “talk ball.”
Photo Courtesy of Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver PostTier 1: Defense (And Coaching) Wins Championships (Season Record: 13-7)
Steelers +3 over Ravens
Broncos -2.5 over Falcons
Let me start by saying, there are a lot of bets that I like this week, but none that I love. These are my “best” bets, but I don’t love them as much as some of the Tier 1 bets of weeks’ past. For starters, I’ll be the first to recognize that there is a real scenario where Baltimore just pastes the Steelers this week. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson feast on the ground and the Ravens defense, which is good against the run, forces Russell Wilson into obvious passing downs and he can’t connect on his “moon balls.” Here are the reasons I don’t think that happens though: a) Mike Tomlin 2) the Steelers defense is also top tier and plays well at both aspects of the game and d) Pittsburgh’s pass rush vs. Baltimore’s offensive line is the single biggest mismatch of the game. This would be a bigger advantage for Pittsburgh if Alex Highsmith weren’t out with an ankle sprain, but I think T.J. Watt and co. can still force Lamar off-platform more than the Ravens would prefer.
Here’s my weekly confession: I was not a believer in the Denver Broncos. I was not a believer in post-New Orleans Sean Payton. I was not a believer in Bo Nix. I still don’t buy Bo Nix as a “top of the draft board” guy like Sean Payton apparently did, but I do think Payton has done a good job with Nix and, to Bo Nix’s credit, he doesn’t actively lose his team games. Bo is a serviceable NFL quarterback who is capable of manning the ship for a team with a good defense and reasonable supporting cast. The same can’t be said for other quarterbacks in this league. Denver isn’t a team I see making waves in the playoffs, but their defense is good enough to win them this game at home against a meh Falcons team.
Photo Courtesy of Mike De Sisti/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY NetworkTier 2: Division Battles (Season Record: 20-10)
Packers -5.5 over Bears
49ers -6.5 over Seahawks
This Bears’ season really went from promising to disastrous in a hurry huh? I guess that’s what happens when you lose on a Hail Mary, give up a touchdown on a halfback draw at the end of a half and fail to score a touchdown against a bottom three team in a three-week stretch. Matt Eberflus is fortunate to still have a job at this point and his close to entering the “Doug Pederson Zone” of betting against him until he’s fired. Green Bay is coming off of a bye, so they’ll be fresh and Jordan Love has had a two week opportunity to get his groin back to 100%. Smart people have pointed out all year that this Packers offense is boom or bust, which makes it less trustworthy than other similarly rated units, but at this point in the season I’ve come to expect more booms against Chicago than busts.
This is the week I expect San Francisco to return to form. Seattle may be coming off a bye, but it’s still unclear if they will have D.K. Metcalf back. Until they do, it’s hard to trust this offense without a safety valve to protect this porous offensive line. Christian McCaffrey returned last week and the effect he has on a defense was apparent. I expect Kyle Shanahan to be prepared for that and have a plan to put a high degree of stress on the Seahawks defense. The 49ers stink at special teams, and there’s a good chance that bites them in the playoffs, but I think they can find ways to mitigate that in regular season games like these.
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Duane BurlesonTier 3: The Quarterback Spectrum (Season Record: 13-21)
Lions -13.5 over Jaguars
Colts +3.5 over Jets
Bills -2.5 over Chiefs
Texans -7.5 over Cowboys
This tier contains the full spectrum of NFL quarterback play. On one end of the spectrum, we have another Pat Mahomes-Josh Allen duel and on the other we have the Colts’, Cowboys’ and Jaguars’ quarterback carousels. Jacksonville’s and Dallas’s may be due to injuries to the starter, but that doesn’t change the fact that we have seen multiple players on both teams show us how not to play quarterback at the NFL level.
The most interesting game in this tier and the one that you should prioritize watching regardless of if, how, or how much you bet it is the Chiefs vs. Bills mid-afternoon game. This is likely a playoff preview and a game that has given us plenty of classic iterations over the past few years. I know I have recently written about how much we should take advantage of betting on Mahomes as an underdog, and in the playoffs, I will always push that advice, but in a regular season game with Kansas City already comfortably at 9-0 I think the situation is different. Last week, I wrote that Kansas City would do just enough to win “no more, no less.” That’s exactly what they did. I can guarantee you they won’t do that for eight more regular season games and three playoff game. Put another way: Does this feel like the first undefeated team in 52 years to you? I didn’t think so either. Kansas City will drop a regular season game at some point this season, and this feels like the right game. Buffalo will be hungry after getting bounced by Mahomes in the playoffs last year…again, and I would argue that the Bills are playing better football overall right now. Josh Allen is having a splendid season and the Bills defense who seemed poised for a downtick at the beginning of the season actually defends both run and pass reasonably.
This Detroit line seems awfully high, especially on a short week and coming off a game in which Jared Goff through five interceptions. Still, Detroit has the best running game in the NFL and Jared Goff has mostly been an efficiency king this season. I expect more of that on Sunday, especially against a Jacksonville team that I can’t in good conscious bet. I know they had myriad opportunities to beat the Vikings last week, and some might try to compare Jared Goff to Sam Darnold. Don’t do that. Those two aren’t comparable and don’t try to get cute. Just bet the Lions and don’t bother watching this bloodshed.
Indianapolis is turning the reins back over to Anthony Richardson on Sunday, which is probably good for both the Colts’ present and future. Joe Flacco seems like his nearing the end of the road as a serviceable starting quarterback, and Indianapolis needs to find out sooner rather than later if Anthony Richardson is a franchise quarterback. This is a good weekend to find out against a Jets defense that is talented but has not been a good unit this year. I don’t really trust the Colts, but I’m not trusting the Jets as a favorite either. Jonathan Taylor is still a beast of a running back, and Indy’s defense is good enough to get some stops if Anthony Richardson can avoid turning the ball over and creating short field opportunities for Aaron Rodgers.
I’m not sure what to say about this week’s Monday Night Football Battle for Texas other than would anyone bet on the Cowboys at this point in the season? I almost made this a tier one bet but couldn’t stomach having watching my biggest bet of the week slip away while Houston ran out the clock with a seven-point lead, which is the only scenario I see Dallas actually covering this spread. Houston’s defense is good enough to clampdown Trey Lance or Cooper Rush, and Dallas couldn’t run on the Houston Cougars defense, much less the Texans. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud should get Nico Collins back this week, and the Mixon, Dell, Collins trio will be a formidable challenge for a Dallas defense that has also cratered this season. I expect Nico Collins to get in on the scoring action in his return to the field this week, and he’s my GPSATB of the week.
Photo Courtesy of Bleeding Green Nation/SB NationTier 4: Two Bouncebacks and a Breakthrough (Season Record: 16-18)
Commanders +3.5 over Eagles
Vikings -5.5 over Titans
Chargers -1.5 over Bengals
This must be the most interesting Thursday Night Football game of the season, right? The upstart Commanders taking on the roller coaster Eagles right as Philly might be figuring their season out. That’s must-watch television. Philadelphia played well mostly on Sunday but there are still concerns there. Jalen Hurts still doesn’t throw the ball over the middle much and threw a bad interception in the end zone early on Sunday. Washington’s defense isn’t good, but it’s no worse than Dallas’s. On the other side of the ball, Jayden Daniels has been a revelation for Washington’s offense, and I think he can keep pace with Philadelphia. The one concern that I have betting the Commanders here, is there is at least one plausible scenario where Saquon Barkley just takes over this game and Washington’s run defense is incapable of stopping him for chewing up yardage and clock.
Maybe this is the time to get off the Minnesota train before it runs off the rails, but I just can’t bet on Will Levis. His mayonnaise commercials make me vomit in my mouth over and over again every Sunday. (I know that was only a football-adjacent comment, but it needed to be said.) I think the Vikings get back to running the ball this week and Darnold doesn’t have to do too much. I also think Levis will gift wrap some great scoring opportunities for the Vikes, but Mac Jones did do the same last week too. Regardless, I’m not betting on Tennessee. If you want to call this game a stay away, then I wouldn’t fault you either.
Cincinnati feels like they are going to be just a little bit short all year long, don’t they? I think this team is better than their record generally, and they have had to deal with limited availability from secondary star Tee Higgins. Then again, they’ve also lost to the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites and been blown out by the Eagles. Their biggest problem, as it pertains to this game, is that they can’t stop the run for anything. What do the Chargers do well? Run the damn ball. I think Los Angeles dominates the ground game and the time of possession here, and ultimately that’s why I think they win. I never thought I’d type this, but I truly believe Greg Roman has unlocked the best version of Justin Herbert.
Photo Courtesy of Turf Show Times/SB NationTier 5: Bad and Unpredictable Teams (Season Record: 19-15)
Rams -4.5 over Patriots
Browns +1.5 over Saints
Raiders +7.5 over Dolphins
I wouldn’t fault a soul for choosing not to bet on any of these games. I’m not sure I know what I’m talking about here. Generally speaking, I think the Rams have shown me a little more than the Patriots this season, and I still have a degree of confidence in Matt Stafford that I don’t have in anyone involved in New England’s organization. Drake Maye has breathed a shot of hope for the future into this team though and they could get frisky down the stretch.
Cleveland got embarrassed by the Chargers the last time we saw them play and New Orleans enjoyed the dead cat bounce last week against Atlanta. In hindsight, I am truly stunned that I shunned the dead cat bounce and bet Atlanta anyway last week. Sometimes I need you guys to remind me how dumb I can be. This week feels ripe for a random Jameis Winston gem in what some could consider a revenge game. Right? It’s the thing that makes the least sense which, in a contest between two teams, makes it the most likely scenario. That seems like some kind of football bastardization of Murphy’s Law, but it’s also true.
What is Miami going to be the rest of the season? Does Tua have this offense rolling again? How much do we trust him when we know he’s one hit away from possibly never playing again. Las Vegas is bad, but at least I know Maxx Crosby will be out there potentially making life difficult for Miami’s quick strike passing attack. The Raiders are awful, but I can’t trust Miami with a line this high. Not until they set a new baseline, which one week is not enough to do.
Last Week’s Record: 9-5
Season Record: 81-71
Cover Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Matt Rourke
Daylight savings time is here fraught with driving home from work in the dark and seasonal depression. The saving (no pun intended) grace for this time of year is that with the cold and dark we turn to one thing above all to cheer ourselves up: comfort food. We are so many months away from #hotgirlsummer that no one should be afraid to embrace a hot dish of cheesy, buttery, meaty goodness to warm our souls through the blustery winter months. In honor of the best part of the season, this week’s tiers are my comfort food power rankings. Dig in!
Photo Courtesy of Seth Wenig/APTier 1: Roasted Beef and Potatoes (Season Record: 11-7)
Bills -3.5 over Colts
Cardinals +1.5 over Jets
Nothing beats a beautiful dish of slow roasted beef and some form of potatoes for me. That is always where my mind goes first when I think of comfort food. The beautiful thing about it is that even though it seems straightforward, and it is, there are still so many variations. As a Southerner, I’m used to the classic pot roast with gravy and mashed potatoes. I’m also partial to the French iteration: Beef Bourguignon over pureed potatoes. When I really wanna get fancy, I turn to a braised short rib.
Buffalo failed to cover last week, but that actually had more to do with the Dolphins offense showing some signs of life in Tua’s return than anything the Bills did or didn’t do. Josh Allen was fantastic in the second half on Sunday, and he did it without Amari Cooper. The Colts, on the other hand, played an entire football game without advancing the ball into the redzone with Anthony Richardson sitting on the bench. He clearly is the future and, after last week, maybe he needs to be the present again. The Colts were inefficient with Richardson at the helm, but at least they were interesting and occasionally explosive.
It’s time to start taking Arizona seriously. They didn’t just beat the Bears on Sunday. They owned them. Kyler Murray and company moved the ball at will against a good Bears defense and the Cardinals defense put Caleb Williams in a blender. Now, I don’t think putting a rookie quarterback through his paces suddenly makes the Cardinals defense world beaters, but it was a promising sign. Now Arizona is a home underdog against the Jets? Why because they beat Houston without their top two receivers? Are they suddenly back? I’m skeptical.
Photo Courtesy of Daily Norseman/SB NationTier 2: Chili (Season Record: 19-8)
Vikings -4.5 over Jaguars
Falcons -3.5 over Saints
Lions -3.5 over Texans
Is their anything more comforting than a piping hot bowl of chili fully loaded with sour cream, cheddar cheese and about 20 dashes of hot sauce? I don’t think so either.
How good do we think Minnesota is? I ask that question with the full realization that you are reading this because I’m supposed to be giving you answers, but I prefer a little imaginary dialogue from time to time. Truthfully, I think Minnesota is a decent team when they can run the ball. Sam Darnold isn’t an elevator but he can be a manager and he is surrounded by safety nets, the best of which is Justin Jefferson who is my GPSATB for the week. Defensively, Minnesota is a good, not great unit that’s coordinated by the best defensive mind in the game. That recipe will take the Vikings far in the regular season, but it will be tantalizing to bet against Sam Darnold come playoff time. Also, I fully recognize Jacksonville has now covered two weeks in a row, but I’m still in full-on bet against mode.
New Orleans is awful. How did we get from week two New Orleans to here? Again, legitimately asking. The answer partially lies in they played two bad-to-horrible teams to start the season and came back down to earth against real NFL competition and then lost their starting quarterback for a few weeks. Even though Derek Carr returned last weekend, their offense still looks broken outside of Alvin Kamara, and now they don’t have their only downfield receiving threat, Chris Olave, for the foreseeable future after Derek Carr hung him out to dry and got him concussed on Sunday. (No Michael Thomas isn’t standing over my shoulder forcing me to type this. Why do you ask?) I’m still not sold on Atlanta, but it’s becoming increasingly clear they are the best team in a bad division.
Detroit is nearing straight bet mode for me at this point. If you thought the elements were going to slow them down last week, then you were wrong. The running game continues to roll and Jared Goff operates an efficient complementary passing attack. I worry about this defense holding up through multiple playoff games and a full-strength Houston offense would actually be a nightmare matchup for them, but we aren’t getting a full-strength Houston offense, unfortunately.
Photo Courtesy of Windy City Gridiron/SB NationTier 3: Soup (Season Record: 12-19)
Bears -6.5 over Patriots
Bucs +5.5 over 49ers
Rams -1.5 over Dolphins
I understand that “soup” is a category of foods and not a specific dish, but when I started thinking about all of the comforting soup dishes it became impossible to narrow the list down to one. So here are my favorite comfort soups in no particular order: gumbo over rice, tomato soup and grilled cheese, French onion soup au gratin, beef and vegetable and butternut squash.
The Bears looked bad last week to the point that I’m nervous laying this many points with Caleb Williams, but New England is worse. I also think I’ve hit my quota of betting on the Patriots this year. Drake Maye made some plays last week that offered glimmers of hope, but those are future glimmers not present.
Christian McCaffrey may get activated this week and spark San Francisco’s offense back to the heights we’ve come to expect and make this pick look foolish. That doesn’t seem like the most likely scenario. I think we are still a few weeks away from seeing McCaffrey and even if he does play, he clearly isn’t 100%. The other reason I would lean towards taking the points here is, as we saw Monday night, Tampa Bay has a good running attack and their ability to control the ball and time of possession give them the opportunity to keep pretty much any game close as long as Baker Mayfield protects the football.
Earlier in this column, I pitched the case that we start accepting Arizona as a good team, which was a camp I’d moved into earlier in the season. It’s also probably time I do the same with the Rams, a camp I did not belong to until this week. With Kupp and Nacua back, this team has weapons and is a two-dimensional threat. Also, this young defense that was thought to be an Achilles heel is starting to improve, especially up front with the emergence of Jared Verse as a game wrecker. Miami looked much better with Tua back last week too, but I do think Verse and company can make life difficult for Tua.
Photo Courtesy of Sam Greene/The EnquirerTier 4: Spaghetti Bolognese (Season Record: 14-17)
Bengals +6.5 over Ravens
Giants -6.5 over Panthers
Broncos +8.5 over Chiefs
The Italians really know how to do comfort food. Meat in a hearty stew over a bed of carbs, and sometimes breaded and covered with cheese. These are all wonderful things. Some would argue that spaghetti and meatballs is the more “comforting” of the ways to serve spaghetti, but I’m partial to Bolognese. It requires less thought about how big of a piece of meatball to cut to add with pasta. Just twirl and eat.
Baltimore finally went full juggernaut mode last week against the hapless Broncos, but this team never seems to put two weeks in a row of juggernaut ball together. Cincinnati also has shown flashes of heating up offensively, but there’s a strong chance they will be without Tee Higgins yet again, which does make me nervous. I also rarely do this, but you should consider betting the over in this one.
If the NFL’s purpose for playing all of these international games is to expand American football to the rest of the world, then why in the hell would Roger Goodell send these two teams to Munich? Arguably, if this game were being played on American soil, the NFL could be tried for eighth amendment rights violations against all the poor spectators of this game. Don’t wake up to watch this game. Don’t bet on this game.
Kansas City never covers these spreads. Denver got exposed last week, but their defense is still decent. Pat Mahomes is also slightly hobbled with a hip injury, so expect the Chiefs to do just enough to get a win. No more. No less.
AP Photo/Barry ReegerTier 5: Macaroni and Cheese (Season Record: 16-15)
Steelers +2.5 over Commanders
Chargers -7.5 over Titans
Eagles -7 over Cowboys
If you read macaroni and cheese and the first think you thought about was a blue box then you need to take that weak ass shit somewhere else. Real comforting macaroni and cheese includes béchamel, mozzarella, sharp cheddar cheese, breadcrumbs, lots of butter and a broiler. That the stringy, rich, cheesy goodness you want.
Washington has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season so far, but this is the kind of game Mike Tomlin lives for. Underdog against an upstart team with a dazzling rookie quarterback? Welcome to Mike Tomlin’s paradise, and a rookie quarterback’s hell. I fully expect an exotic defensive scheme and a non-offensive touchdown for the Steelers this week.
Los Angeles finally showed they are capable of blowing out a bad team on Sunday, and they ruined the Jameis Winston feel-good comeback story in the process. Even in the NFL, Jim Harbaugh is still fulfilling the role of Grade A fun killer. Tennessee is even worse than Cleveland and the Chargers should roll over them too.
How in the world did Philadelphia not cover that spread? They had a 22-point lead on a DOA Jaguars team and somehow let them claw back and cover the spread. Also, I’m sure you’ve already seen it, but if you haven’t go watch Saquon Barkley’s reverse hurdle because that was some of the most bonkers shit I’ve ever seen on a football field. The Eagles aren’t good, but the Cowboys are even worse. Dallas doesn’t have the worst roster or the worst future prospects, but they may be the saddest current fanbase in the NFL because of the perpetual failure to meet expectations. Maybe just bet the Saquon Barkley over on rushing yards and touchdowns.
Last Week’s Record: 6-9
Season Record: 72-66
Cover Photo Courtesy of Mark Konezny/Imagn Images
Transparency is something that I’ve always prioritized with this column, therefore I must confess to you that I don’t like horror movies. It wasn’t a thing we grew up with in my household and I just never developed any kind of affinity or attachment for them. Halloween has also never been one of my favorite holidays, other than the candy, but because it is right in the middle of football season it does always make an easy writing gimmick. The closest thing to the horror genre that I do enjoy is the writing of Edgar Allan Poe, which also has some loose ties to the NFL.
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Matt SlocumTier 1: The Gold-Bug (Season Record: 9-6)
Bills -5.5 over Dolphins
Commanders -3.5 over Giants
Lions -3.5 over Packers
The Gold-Bug is my favorite Poe short story, and his most underrated. It is also much less “spooky” than most of his other works, which might make it a poorer choice for top billing given the subtitle but its my list so deal with it…sorry that was aggressive. Anyway, The Gold-Bug is one of Poe’s lesser-known works today, but it was one of his most popular during his lifetime and it is the inspiration for Robert Louis Stevenson’s “Treasure Island.”
Two of the three top tier games this week are replays of games we’ve already seen this year. Buffalo throttled Miami in week two. This was also, unfortunately, the game in which Tua was concussed again. That happened well after the outcome of this game was decided, and even with Tua returning last week this Miami team isn’t good. Buffalo has gotten better since week two and gets to play in Buffalo. This feels like a full go, even if it is in the Vegas Zone.
In the same week Buffalo beat Miami, Washington beat the New York Giants in a bizarre game where Graham Gano was injured early on a kickoff rendering the Giants incapable of attempting field goals or PATs the rest of the game. It is the only game in history where one team has scored three touchdowns and given up zero and lost. So yeah, that game was weird, and it’s impossible to read much from that result. However, the Commanders and Jayden Daniels have done nothing but improve since that game and the Giants don’t seem to be showing signs of improvement.
I kind of think it’s bad juju (not Smith-Schuster) to put all favorites in the top tier, but some weeks that’s just how it’s going to go. Jordan Love seems optimistic that he’ll suit up for the Packers on Sunday, even if he isn’t practicing. Even if he does, I expect him to be limited, and a limited Jordan Love isn’t going to be enough against a Lions team that is rolling right now. Detroit is arguably the best team in football right now and if this becomes a back-and-forth game then I like the consistency of the Lions run game over the high variance home run ball offense Green Bay employs. I also love the Jahmyr Gibbs 10+ rushing yards in each quarter weekly special at +300.
Photo Courtesy of Joe Amon/The Denver PostTier 2: Fall of the House of Usher (Season Record: 18-6)
Broncos +9.5 over Ravens
Falcons -2.5 over Cowboys
Seahawks +1.5 over Rams
If you are starting or have already watched the Netflix series of the same name and haven’t read the Poe version, let me just tell you that the two are very much not the same. The show took some of the names from several Poe stories and weaved together some similar thematic elements and storylines added a lot of promiscuity and gave us…something not entirely Poe-esque but not completely un-Poe-esque either. The short story is better and creepier.
Admittedly, I did not have Cleveland upsetting Baltimore on my bingo card last week even if I did have the Browns to cover. Baltimore has seemed averse to covering big spreads even before last week though, see week two against the Raiders, and I’m not sure that they will have any interest in covering against Denver this week either. The Broncos are worse than their record indicates, hence this spread, but I just can’t lay this many points with a Ravens team that never seems to cover them.
Dallas stinks and they can’t stop anyone from running the ball. I’ve written some version of this every week for the last several weeks, other that Dallas’s bye two weeks ago, but that’s because it continues to be true. I’m still not buying Atlanta stock, but they have at least a serviceable defense and they have a multi-dimensional offense that will give a bad Dallas defense problems. Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown each of the last three weeks and he has a great matchup this week. He’s my GSATB (Gronk Spike Anytime Touchdown Bet) of the week.
I know Seattle just got blown out at home by Buffalo, but I swear that game said more about the Bills than the Seahawks! Seattle is still a decent team. Los Angeles is getting healthy at the right time offensively to make a playoff push, but I’m not positive that makes them better than the Seahawks. I’m certainly not sure it should make them a road favorite over the Seahawks, especially if D.K. Metcalf returns as anticipated.
Dec 10, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball asNew York Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (95) pursues during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Stroud was injured on the play and left the game. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY SportsTier 3: The Tell-Tale Heart (Season Record: 12-16)
Texans +1.5 over Jets
Browns +1.5 over Chargers
Colts +5.5 over Vikings
A tale as old as time: a man does something horrible and suffers the consequence of all-consuming guilt. The narrator’s rapid and horrifying descent into madness is the most quintessential “Poe” storyline. The Tell-Tale Heart isn’t Edgar Allan Poe’s best work, but it is the one that best characterizes his voice and common themes.
Houston lost Stefon Diggs for the season on Sunday, and remains without Nico Collins, so I assume that’s why the Jets are the favorite here? I’m genuinely asking. I can’t think of any good reason why the New York Jets should be favored in a football game in 2024. The offense has been better since the firing of Robert Saleh and the acquiring of Davante Adams, but the defense, long thought to be the strength of the franchise, has been downright bad and getting worse. Even without Collins and Diggs, I think the Texans can have success on the ground creating good opportunities for C.J. Stroud to take shots down the field. This line makes no sense to me, but it gets the Thursday night demotion to tier three.
Sunday was proof positive of what I, and many others, have believed all along: Deshaun Watson was never the best quarterback option for this football team. Jameis Winston led a stunning upset over Baltimore last week. What can he do for an encore this week? I think he can lead them to another win over the Chargers. Los Angeles’s offense is one-dimensional and will struggle to move the ball consistently against a good Cleveland defense. Jameis doesn’t have to do much on Sunday. He just needs to protect the ball and engineer a couple of touchdown drives and the defense will do the rest. Admittedly, that hasn’t been Jameis’s M.O. for most of his career, but sometimes people change.
Indianapolis is benching Anthony Richardson after he pulled himself in crunch time against the Texans last week, which is a tough look for a young “franchise” quarterback. Richardson will probably be fine and will get his opportunity as a starter again, but Flacco is the best quarterback option for Indianapolis right now and Shane Steichen is smart enough to know that. Minnesota does have a few extra days of prep after playing on Thursday last week, but the Vegas Zone feels like a prime opportunity for a Flacco back door cover.
Photo Courtesy of Jamie Sabau/Imagn ImagesTier 4: The Murders in the Rue Morgue (Season Record: 13-15)
Bears +1.5 over Cardinals
Eagles -7.5 over Jaguars
Bucs +8.5 over Chiefs
I’m torn on “The Murders in the Rue Morgue.” On the one hand, I was disappointed when the perpetrator was revealed to be a (Spoiler Alert Edit!), but on the other hand it did introduce us to C.Auguste Dupin, a.k.a. the inspiration for Sherlock Holmes. Overall, it’s a good, if unsatisfying, short story that introduced the concept of the modern detective story.
Full disclosure: I only picked Chicago over the Commanders last week because I thought they’d be without Jayden Daniels. It almost hit anyway. Almost. Arizona has been a frisky team this season and are one more last second win away from becoming the “Cardiac Cards” (trademark pending). But, Caleb Williams, the first half of last week aside, is starting to show that he can be a playmaker against mediocre-to-bad defenses, which Arizona qualifies as, and the Bears defense, Hail Marys notwithstanding, is good. Chicago should be favored in this game.
Is Philadelphia finally back? Eh, I’m still skeptical, but last week was encouraging. Do the Jaguars still employ Doug Pederson? For now. More because of the answer to the second question, I’m taking Philadelphia to cover here with a side of Tums.
Kansas City, not unlike Baltimore, reverted to their old win but don’t cover an absurdly high spread ways last week, and that might be here to stay if recent history is any indicator. The Bucs are reeling without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but they can actually run the ball and if Baker Mayfield protects the football, then this is a coverable spread.
Photo Courtesy of Pats Pulpit/SB NationTier 5: The Black Cat (Season Record: 14-14)
Patriots +3.5 over Titans
Panthers +7.5 over Saints
Raiders +7.5 over Bengals
Not gonna lie, I’m not a huge cat guy. You know what I’m even less of a “guy” of: animal cruelty and domestic violence.
Off the record, do not bet or watch any of these three games. It’s not worth it. On the record, here’s my rationale for each of these three games. New England proved last week that it can at least resemble an NFL team. Tennessee has yet to do that this season except against a practice squad quarterback. Derek Carr may be back this week, but he will be limited, and the Saints are in free fall. The Panthers may be waiting for them at the bottom of that free fall, but seven-and-a-half points is a lot. Speaking of seven-and-a-half, Cincinnati shouldn’t be favored by that many over anybody.
Last Week’s Record: 8-8
Season Record: 66-57
Cover Photo Courtesy of Sam Navarro/Imagn Images
Sam and Brian have a nice little coffee chat to open the pod this week before transitioning to portal vs. high school talk, a look back at two demoralizing losses, and week nine picks. Enjoy!
Let me be clear about something. As long as they have peak Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs will always be all-in. Trading away a conditional fourth-round pick isn’t exactly “pushing all your chips to the middle of the table.” But bolstering their receiver room by adding a past-his-prime but still productive DeAndre Hopkins is exactly the kind of move a team makes to shore things up before a playoff run when they’re already going for broke. In honor of Kansas City confirming what we already know, here are my top “all-in” sports movie moments.
Photo Courtesy of Tony Gutierrez/Associated PressTier 1: Michael Jordan Bets On Himself (Season Record: 8-6)
49ers -4.5 over Cowboys
Was MJ being tongue-in-cheek or just doing some method acting when in the crux of his acting debut he raises the stakes in a basketball game by gambling on himself against the villain, Mr. Swackhammer? I choose to think this was MJ’s subtle little eff you back to the NBA for ~~suspending him for gambling and driving him out of basketball for a year-and-a-half~~ not providing him high enough stakes for his competitive overdrive and cajoling him into playing minor league baseball for a year-and-a-half.
There’s only one game that I feel comfortable enough putting in the top spot this week. Dallas is a team in sharp decline. They can’t run the ball, and the passing game is in decline. Defensively, they’ve been without Micah Parsons for weeks, and even with him they couldn’t stop the run for anything. This game should be a playcaller’s delight for Kyle Shanahan where he can pound the rock again and again to set up some exotic playaction opportunities. The 49ers did use Brandon Aiyuk to a nasty knee injury last week, but they have already shown this season they have skill players ready to step up in a star’s absence. Given Dallas’s run defense, I also like Jordan Mason as my “Gronk Spike Profit Boost Anytime TD” scorer on FanDuel.
Photo Courtesy of USA TODAY SportsTier 2: Mike McD Doubles Up (Season Record: 15-5)
Falcons -2.5 over Bucs
Seahawks +3 over Bills
Steelers -6.5 over Giants
Cardinals +3.5 over Dolphins
There’s potentially a lesson in quitting while you’re ahead in most of these scenes, but it was a good think Mike McDermott never learned his lesson. Sure, he could have quit after settling worm’s debt and gone back to being a grinder and unreliable law student after cleaning Teddy KGB’s clock, but he doesn’t. He let’s Teddy goad him into a double or nothing head’s up game. Mike McD not only comes out victorious, but even gets his stake back and a one-way ticket to Vegas for the World Series of Poker. That’s doubling down done right.
Tampa Bay suffered two gnarly injuries on Monday night late against the Ravens losing both star receivers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans will miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury and Godwin will likely miss the rest of the season with a dislocated ankle. I have been vocal in my assertion that this Atlanta team isn’t very good, but they are good enough to be a one-arm-behind-his-back Baker Mayfield, especially after they just busted him on Thursday night with a full deck a few weeks ago.
Seattle is one of the most confusing teams to try to pick week in and week out, and that’s even more true as we don’t know D.K. Metcalf’s status after spraining his MCL against Atlanta last week. However, I like Seattle as a home underdog against a decent but unspectacular Buffalo team this week. I also like the Geno Smith or Josh Allen to pass for 350+ yards prop at +380.
We still don’t know if Pittsburgh will hand the reins to Russell Wilson or go back to Justin Fields, but for this week I don’t think it really matters. After a couple of weeks of competent play, New York has turned back into a pumpkin and the Steelers defense will put Daniel Jones in a blender.
Even with the imminent return of Tua and Tyreek Hill’s proclamations that they are back, I will trust this Miami team when I see it. Let’s not forget that they were playing poorly even before Tua got concussed against Buffalo in week two. Arizona is a decent team and I’m a little surprised they are getting so many points even if they are on a short week following a Monday night game.
Photo Courtesy of Benny Sieu/Imagn ImagesTier 3: Coach Yoast Gives Up the Hall of Fame (Season Record: 11-14)
Packers -4.5 over Jaguars
Colts +5.5 over Texans
Chiefs -9.5 over Raiders
We had to have at least one football movie in our tiers this week. While the first two examples were actual gambling examples of going all-in, this is more of a life example. In “Remember the Titans”, we see a beautiful journey of two communities coming together and relative rates of transition to accepting this. Bill Yoast seems to take a moral high road earlier on in the film accepting Herman Boone taking his place as head coach, but we really see his buy-in later in the film when he stands to benefit by standing aside and letting his team lose a fixed game, in order for him to replace Boone as head coach next season and secure his spot in the Virginia High School Hall of Fame, instead he stands up for what is right and threatens the officials into calling a fair game and urges his team to blitz all night paving the way to victory but jeopardizing his Hall of Fame chances in the process.
Jacksonville continues to employ Doug Pederson a week after beating up on the hopeless Patriots across the pond. I am steadfast in my conviction: Green Bay to cover. I think Jordan Love can throw all over this Jacksonville defense and an opportunistic Packers defense forces at least one Trevor Lawrence turnover.
Indianapolis might get Jonathan Taylor back this week, but even so Houston has been a win-but-don’t-cover team all season. I expect that to continue this week. Indianapolis is a decent team and good enough to at least make this a once score game.
We’ve already discussed Kansas City, but this would feel like a trap game if it weren’t for the fact that the Chiefs lost in Las Vegas just last year. Instead, this is going to be a Kansas City revenge game against the spiraling Raiders.
Photo Courtesy of SB Nation/Bleeding Green NationTier 4: The Iron Lotus (Season Record: 12-12)
Bengals -1.5 over Eagles
Lions -10.5 over Titans
Bears -2.5 over Commanders
Vikings -3 over Rams
What could be more all-in than a male-male figure skating duo attempting a routine that will either end with a gold medal or certain death?
I’m not sold on either Cincinnati or Philadelphia this season, so I’m just going to take the home team here. I also have more faith in Joe Burrow week-to-week than I do Jalen Hurts.
Tennessee is an objectively terribly football team and Detroit might be the best team in the NFL outside of Kansas City. The Lions only Achilles’ heel is their man-to-man defense being torn apart by a precise passing game, which will matter immensely come playoff time but won’t matter at all against a Tennessee team that just traded away it’s only remotely frightening receiving option.
The only reason I’m taking Chicago here is because I expect them to have their rookie quarterback available on Sunday. With Jayden Daniels likely out, I don’t have confidence in Marcus Mariota’s ability to attack a Bears passing defense that is the best in the NFL currently by EPA.
The Thursday night skids are over! The Broncos dismantling the wounded Saints ended my long string of starting weeks 0-1 last week. I fully expect to return to that this week and I’ve waffled on my Thursday night pick a few times, but I’m rolling with the Vikings. Even with Cooper Kupp’s return, I don’t think this Rams defense can slow down the Minnesota rushing attack.
Photo Courtesy of Robert Deutsch/Imagn ImagesTier 5: Roy McAvoy’s Hubris (Season Record: 12-12)
Jets -7 over Patriots
Browns +9.5 over Ravens
Saints +7.5 over Chargers
Broncos -9.5 over Panthers
Sometimes you go all in and things don’t work out, like when Roy McAvoy chooses to try to go for the green instead of laying up…again and again and again. Now, because “Tin Cup” is a movie it ends up working out for him and he eventually holes out to avoid disqualification, get the girl and qualify for next year’s U.S. Open, but this is the dark side of “going for it.” This is hubris personified.
The Patriots have now firmly placed themselves on the “Do Not Bet” list, and I expect another week of Davante Adams in house to improve the Jets’ passing attack.
I hate to say this about a guy who just got hurt, but let’s be honest it would be hard to be saying it about a worse guy, Deshaun Watson’s injury will do nothing but improve Cleveland’s week-to-week play. That paired with Baltimore’s aversion to covering huge spreads makes me go with the Browns to cover this week.
New Orleans had devolved into a bad football team even before Derek Carr’s injury, but without him they have been completely lost. I’m still not convinced the Chargers should be trusted with a spread this large though. This is probably a stay away but if you’re forced to pick, I’d take the points.
Carolina is also rapidly entering “Do Not Bet” list territory. The only saving grace last week was Chuba Hubbard making good on my anytime TD bet late. Bryce Young takes back over the offense after Andy Dalton injured his thumb in a car accident on Tuesday. It doesn’t seem like the injury will cost him much time, but at least Bryce Young gets one more opportunity to see if he’s made any progress since going to the bench after week two. I just wouldn’t bet on that.
Last Week’s Record: 11-4
Season Record: 58-49
Cover Photo Courtesy of USATSI
This week Sam laments his inability to satisfactorily open a podcast, despite ten years of practice, and Brian discusses his conversion to an electric toothbrush. Oh, and they also talk about last week’s Ohio State vs. Oregon banger, the weirdness of Friday night games and week eight picks. Enjoy!
Like the rest of you, this is not the news I expected to break at the beginning of this week. I fully expected to wake up Monday morning and find that the Jaguars had made Doug Pederson the second coach fired this season, which is kind of like the Mr. Irrelevant of coach firings because no one is making money off you and if you’re getting fired this early then everyone saw it coming so it’s not “newsworthy”. Instead, we got no news on Monday, and a relatively dull Monday night game. But it turns out that both those teams were just trying to get through the week so they could set off the AFC East arms race! The Jets team Aaron Rodgers back up with ol’ pal Davante Adams and, not to be outdone, the Bills go out and get Amari Cooper to help Josh Allen out. Tiers this week are dedicated to the great arms races!
Photo Courtesy of Steelers Wire/USA TODAY SportsTier 1: The Cold War Nuclear Arms Race (Season Record: 6-6)
Chiefs +1.5 over 49ers
Steelers +1.5 over Jets
Admittedly, I am too young to remember any of the cold war, but I know that it lasted forever and involved a great amassing of weapons of mass destruction. Weapons that, to date, have thankfully yet to be fired by either side. This arms race also perfectly illustrates why they are a great prisoner’s dilemma scenario, and as a game theory nerd I can’t help but point it out. Would the U.S and Russia both have been better off having fewer nuclear weapons and spending that money elsewhere? Absolutely. However, could one afford to not continue developing as the other one did to keep up? No. That, my friends, is a classic prisoner’s dilemma scenario.
In a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, Kansas City travels, fresh off a bye, to a maybe heating up 49ers team. They still haven’t enjoyed the benefit of Christian McCaffrey’s varied skillset this year, but the offense is stepping up its game with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back healthy. The Chiefs, meanwhile, coasted into their bye week and have seemed content to conserve energy through the regular season to prepare to defend their Super Bowl crown come playoff time. I’m still going to bet on Mahomes as an underdog though, even if it is a regular season game. Something tells me he may pull out a few extra tricks for this one.
Pittsburgh looked mediocre against Indianapolis two weeks ago, but other than that they have been a decent team all year. Justin Fields is flawed but talented and has figured out a way to mitigate making backbreaking mistakes under the tutelage of Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith. The defense is one of the best in the league. So, why are they a home dog against the Jets? Is this a Davante Adams bump already? I know he’s played with Rodgers before and he’s played in the Rodgers-Hackett offense before, but do we really expect him to make a major impact on the game five days after being traded and finding a new home? (Hopefully he can still find a home with a Taco Bell inside.)
Photo Courtesy of the Indianapolis ColtsTier 2: The Dreadnought Arms Race (Season Record: 12-5)
Colts -3 over Dolphins
Lions +1.5 over Vikings
Ravens -3.5 over Bucs
Before the cold war, there was another 20th century arms race involving Great Britain and Germany. Instead of nuclear weapons, this was a nautical race. Alfred von Tirpitz, an admiral in the Imperial German Army, had a bright idea that if he could make the German Navy formidable enough then he could force Great Britain and the Royal Navy to stand down and make diplomatic concessions to the Germans. Unfortunately for him, Great Britain was building this badass battleship called the HMS Dreadnought which sparked Germany to rapidly increase their naval ship production. Britain followed suit and then we had an all-out arms race. Germany eventually blinked in 1912, and Britain won the race. Little did we know though, Germany’s “blink” was actually a pivot to secretly building submarines which would cause headaches a few years later.
Jonathan Taylor will probably miss yet another week, but I’m not sure it matters against a Dolphins team that is in shambles. Tyler Huntley did get a bye week to further get comfortable with this team and playbook, but I’m not sure that matters against a decent Colts defense.
The Lions scored a Pyrrhic victory against the Cowboys on Sunday. Sure, they laid waste to the ‘Boys in Jerry World, but they lost Aiden Hutchinson to a nasty leg fracture. If you get queasy, don’t YouTube it. They are playing like one of the best teams in the NFL right now, and their opponent this Sunday can boast the same, but they showed some cracks late in London against the Jets. Sam Darnold is having a career year, but the underlying metrics suggest that he could have a regression back to his mean and this seems like a prime week to do it against a tough Detroit pass rush, even without Hutchinson.
I swear every time I zag on Baltimore they zig and vice versa. We just can’t seem to sync up. This week I think I’ve got it nailed though. Tampa Bay is ok but not great, and I don’t think the defense can slow down the two-dimensional nature of the Ravens attack. They gave up a career game to Kirk Cousins in prime time two weeks ago after all. This game also has a weekly special that I like: Derrick Henry 35+ rushing yards in each half at +185.
Photo Courtesy of George Walker IV/The TennesseeanTier 3: Big Ten vs. SEC (Season Record: 9-13)
Bills -8.5 over Titans
Packers -2.5 over Texans
Cardinals +2.5 over Chargers
Truthfully, if you want a great arms race example you need look no further than our dearest sport! The current conference expansion battle between the SEC and the Big Ten is classic arms race level hubris. You add Texas, fine we’ll grab USC and Oregon!
I swore off big lines last week, and maybe I should continue to do so, but let’s face it: the Titans suck. They are going to continue to suck. Josh Allen has already demonstrated what he does to teams that suck (see MNF Week 3), and now he’ll get to do it with a legitimate WR1.
This Green Bay and Houston game is the most interesting game of the week for me. While everyone will be excited to watch the Super Bowl rematch, respectfully we already know what both of those teams are. Green Bay and Houston both feel rich with potential, but more enigmatic. Both teams came into this season with high expectations. Both have been pretty good. Both feel like they have left something on the table so far. Houston has beat several teams unconvincingly and has a major penalty problem. They also lost Nico Collins to injury. Green Bay overcame a Jordan Love injury but then lost a headscratcher, in some respects, to the division-rival Vikings in his return. My prediction is that we will look back at this game as the game that springboarded one of these teams to a strong finish and deep postseason run. My money’s on the home team.
The Chargers beat up on the Broncos early last week in a loss that felt inevitable for Bo Nix to suffer at some point. However, Los Angeles tried to let Denver back in it late. We’ve already seen what Arizona can do if you let them hang around once this season. I think Arizona may struggle with the Chargers’ run game, but they should be able to load the box. I also think Los Angeles may struggle with Kyler Murray’s dual threat ability. Marvin Harrison Jr. will likely not be available after suffering a concussion last week, which is a setback, but I’ll take Kyler as a home dog on the ESPN+ Monday Night game.
Tier 4: Gotham Police Dept vs. The Mob (Season Record: 11-10)
Broncos -2.5 over Saints
Giants +3 over Eagles
Panthers +8.5 over Commanders
My favorite description of an arms race comes at the tail end of the first film of Christopher Nolan’s Batman trilogy. Jim Gordon is talking to Batman after their successful derailment (no pun intended) of Ras al’ Ghul’s master plan to destroy Gotham. Batman declares to Gordon that they can bring Gotham back, to which Jim Gordon masterfully lays out the arms race that’s about to happen: “What about escalation? […] We start carrying semi-automatics, they buy automatics. We start wearing Kevlar, they buy armor-piercing rounds. […] And you’re wearing a mask. Jumping off rooftops. Now, take this guy. Armed robbery, double homicide, has a taste for the theatrical, like you. Leaves a calling card.” For those who forgot, this is when he flashes the “Joker” card to Batman that sets the stage for “The Dark Knight.”
Sean Payton seems like the kind of guy who is just enough troll to stroll into his old stomping grounds and lay waste to his old team just before ripping off a long losing streak. New Orleans seems like a hapless team without Derek Carr, although I don’t think it was Carr’s absence that caused the Saints to give up 55 points to the Bucs last week. All arrows are pointing down for New Orleans at this point.
The Giants, fresh off a stunning win over the Seahawks, could only muster a single touchdown against a mediocre Bengals defense on Sunday night. The only caveat to that is they didn’t have stud rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers for that game, and it looks like he’ll be back against the Eagles. I also still think this Eagles team is bad enough that I’m not betting them as a road favorite.
I keep coming back to the Carolina well and keep getting let down. Some people never learn. Yet again, I like the matchup relative to the spread for Carolina this week. Jayden Daniels is having a fine rookie season, but unfortunately, he doesn’t play defense for the Commanders. Washington’s defense is bad enough that I expect the Panthers to have success on the ground, shorten the game and find a way to keep this to a single-digit margin of victory. I also like Chuba Hubbard (currently -110) as my Gronk Spike Anytime Touchdown Profit Boost on Fanduel this week.
Photo Courtesy of Big Cat Country/SB NationTier 5: The Wheelbarrow Race (Season Record: 9-11)
Patriots +5.5 over Jaguars
Seahawks +3 over Falcons
Bengals -5.5 Browns
Raiders +6.5 over Rams
This field day classic isn’t so much an arms race as it is an arms race. I’ll see myself out now thanks.
These picks don’t necessarily require a whole lot of rationale, especially considering they are my weakest recommendations. I refuse to bet the Jaguars until Doug Pederson gets fired. I’m a little hesitant about backing a Seattle team playing in the Eastern time zone, but they’ve had a few extra days of rest, and I don’t think the Falcons have the pass rush to exploit Seattle’s weak offensive line. Cleveland is truly horrific and just traded away their best offensive player. Nick Chubb is close to a return, but we have no idea what he’ll look like. Los Angeles is coming off a bye but still has all of the same injury concerns they had before. Las Vegas is awful, but I don’t trust this banged up Rams team laying so many points.
Last Week’s Record: 8-6
Season Record: 47-45
Cover Photo Courtesy of Stephen R. Sylvanie/Imagn Images
Sam takes a long look at what went wrong for Alabama and what went right for Vanderbilt last Saturday. Brian and Sam look back at the other top 10 losers from last weekend and look ahead to week 7 games. Enjoy!
What was that? Did I choose this tagline because I couldn’t think of anything actually clever to do with the tiers this week? Umm…maybe. Did I choose this as a false display of machismo to cover up my less than stellar picks record? I mean…no, if I really wanted to obscure my record, I just wouldn’t post it every week. Besides, other than a disastrous week two we’ve been .500 or better in every other week. Also, the Q and A session was two weeks ago didn’t you get the memo? Why are you badgering me? As Bill would say, on to week 5 picks.
Photo Courtesy of the Associated PressTier 1: High-Security Vault (Season Record: 3-6)
Ravens -2.5 over Bengals
Packers -3 over Rams
The Ravens-Bengals line objectively makes so little sense to me that I have diligently scoured the internet for heretofore undisclosed injuries. Baltimore may only be 2-2 and sure one of those losses was to the Raiders, but that seems like such an obvious aberration at this point. Over the last two weeks, Baltimore seems to have figured out how to incorporate Derrick Henry into the offense in a way that maximizes both his and Lamar Jackson’s production. Cincinnati also can’t stop a nosebleed right now, and while the offense is coming around, I don’t think they are good enough to make things a track meet against the Ravens.
Everyone suddenly seems off Green Bay after they lost, as favorites, to the juggernaut Minnesota Vikings last week. Did I not tell you that Brian Flores knew what he was doing? There were plenty of reasons for Jordan Love to look rusty in his return from a sprained MCL last week, Flores’ defensive scheme among them, but he led a valiant comeback attempt and last week is no reason to write off Green Bay as a legitimate NFC North contender. I fully realize they are a road favorite against the Rams, but they are laying half-a-point more than the Bears did last weekend. Again, yes that was a Bears home game, and this is a Packers road game and line adjustments and blah blah blah. I don’t care. The Bears and the Packers aren’t remotely comparable teams. Aaron Rodgers may be gone, but Green Bay still owns the Bears.
Photo Courtesy of SB NationTier 2: A Magical Lock That Can’t Be Opened With Alohamora (Season Record: 8-4)
Vikings -2.5 over Jets
Cardinals +7.5 over 49ers
Commanders -3 over Browns
Speaking of Brian Flores defense, even if this is a London game (which is why I downgraded it to Tier 2) why do we not expect him to put this very mid, as the kids say, Jets offense in a blender? Are we still buying the Aaron Rodgers mystique so much that we think he will magically figure things out against this defense? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, New York has a good defense, but you can run the ball on them and I expect we’ll see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones early Sunday morning to create easy throws for Sam Darnold.
San Francisco bounced back from a collapse against the Rams two weeks ago with a thumping of the overmatched Patriots last week. That was a schedule blessing for a team that was still depleted at the offensive skill positions. It looks like both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle will return to the lineup this week, which is why I would imagine this line is so high. That, and the fact that Arizona just lost by four points to the Commanders at home. What did you say? They lost by four touchdowns? Yikes! It may be hard to jump right back on the Cardinals after a week like that, but I believe that Arizona is not as bad as they looked last week. They were a bizarre called-back pick six away from beating or nearly beating the Lions the week before. The offense has been quite as spectacular as we thought with MHJ coming into the fold, but the best football is still ahead for this offense and team. No time for that to prove true like a division game against a team that still won’t have its best player.
Speaking of the Commanders, why are they only laying three against the Browns? Cleveland may still have a decent defense, but Jayden Daniels has already demonstrated an ability to diagnose and make throws at the NFL level. Plus, Cleveland’s offense is horrible and incapable of punishing Washington’s poor defense. As long as Washington protects the ball and doesn’t let Cleveland stay in the game with defensive and special teams scores, then I think 20 points will be enough to win this game and cover.
Photo Courtesy of Brett Davis/Imagn ImagesTier 3: The Deadbolt (Season Record: 6-9)
Bucs +1.5 over Falcons
Texans +1.5 over Bills
Steelers -1.5 over Cowboys
Saints +5.5 over Chiefs
Why do we put door locks on doors with deadbolts? The only useful thing about a door lock is the ability to “credit card” your way back in the house when you lock yourself out.
Fun fact: I am 0-4 on Thursday night this year, so if there’s any pick to fade then it’s probably this one, or all of them. Atlanta beat the Saints last week (but didn’t cover!) despite not scoring a single offensive point. They benefited from a muffed punt and had a pick six off a batted ball and truly baffling Derek Carr decision. All that to say, Atlanta is not a good football team and Tampa Bay has at least shown some stretches of good football so far this season. Baker Mayfield still struggles against pressure, but I have doubts about the Falcons secondary consistently holding up against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Houston is declaring itself as the Vegas delight team of the season. They are 0-4 against the spread for the year, but they’ve also been favored in every game and are still a quality football team and we can’t pass up an opportunity to bet them as a home dog. Buffalo had been rolling until they met a buzzsaw on Sunday night. Houston isn’t built like Baltimore to attack Buffalo in the same way necessarily, but Joe Mixon seems likely to return which should help balance the Texans offensive attack and Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs should be able to make some plays against this Bills secondary. That’s especially so with Buffalo losing Von Miller to a suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
Pittsburgh really let me down last week, but if you honestly had Joe Flacco shredding the best defense in the NFL on your bingo card last week then you must have had Biff Tannen’s Sports Almanac. Dallas, meanwhile, still has significant problems on the defensive side of the ball and I expect the Steelers to utilize Justin Fields’ dual threat attack to move the ball on the ground against this Cowboys defense. Fields’ athleticism should help neutralize the only thing to fear on this Dallas defense: Micah Parsons. Offensively, Dallas has no running game, and I fully expect Mike Tomlin to do what he does gameplanning against a one-dimensional offense.
Kansas City will probably continue to do what it does on Monday night: win games in the least exciting fashion imaginable. The Chiefs continue to get these Vegas zone lines against decent teams, and they have shown little interest in trying to cover any of them to the point that the two safest bets in football right now seem like the Kansas City moneyline and betting against them to cover. I see no reason that trend won’t continue this week. Alvin Kamara continues his fountain of youth season, and I think he keeps them in this game, as long as Derek Carr can refrain from throwing the ball to the other team.
Photo Courtesy of Jenna Watson/Indy StarTier 4: The Padlock (Season Record: 8-7)
Colts +2.5 over Jaguars
Broncos -2.5 over Raiders
Seahawks -6.5 over Giants
Indianapolis had a breakout offensive performance last week against what I thought was the best defense in football. It’s a bummer that Anthony Richardson left yet another game early due to injury, but he did some really nice things before that. Joe Flacco stepped in and continued to orchestrate a balanced attack that consistently moved the ball against Pittsburgh. Even more importantly, he protected the football. Now they take on a Jacksonville team that at this point feels like a straight bet against until Doug Pederson inevitably gets fired.
Let me be clear, Denver is a bad football team. They also have had an easy schedule, for the most part, to this point so they look better than they are. The problem is Las Vegas might be a putrid football team, and especially so without Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby on the field. Bo Nix is incapable of beating NFL defenses, but without Maxx Crosby the Raiders are not an NFL defense.
It’s a bummer that Seattle’s offensive performance on Monday night was overshadowed by an even better Lions performance, but Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III were remarkable on Monday night. Seattle’s defense seems to be clicking and while their defensive gameplan didn’t pan out against a sterling Jared Goff performance, they get a nice rebound opportunity against Daniel Jones this week. A Daniel Jones that may be without Malik Nabers at that.
Photo Courtesy of Grant Halverson/Getty ImagesTier 5: A Magical Lock That Can Be Alohamored (Season Record: 6-7)
Panthers +3.5 over Bears
Dolphins +1.5 over Patriots
Let me poll the audience about one of my biggest Harry Potter nitpicks. If you, as an adult wizard, know that there are essentially two ways to magically lock a door: one that can be undone by the spell Alohamora and one that can’t. Why would you ever choose the former unless you won’t that lock to picked? I mean that spell is so easy that a first-year witch can master it in her first month even knowing that magic is a thing. I’m sorry but this just seems silly. Always choose the magical lock that can’t been undone with an easy spell.
Why are we laying so many points with Chicago? Do we really think they figured everything out last week? I know this is a home game against maybe still the worst team in football, but Andy Dalton has infused semi-competent quarterback play into this team and I would be a little surprised if he can’t at least take things down to the wire against a Bears team that still isn’t good.
Picking the Dolphins right now may feel like flushing money down the toilet, and admittedly maybe it is, but I can’t help but think with another week of practice in this offense Tyler Huntley will be better than he was last week. He has started in the playoffs before, and he still has Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill as electric pass catching options. New England and Jacoby Brissett can’t say the same. This may look incredibly stupid in about 72 hours, but that’s why it’s a tier five pick right?
Last Week’s Record: 9-7
Season Record: 31-33
Cover Photo Courtesy of Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images
This week Sam and Brian start with the game of the year so far in Alabama and Georgia trying to go through some of the nuances of the game and decide what this means for the Tide and Dawgs going forward. Week six picks follow including the SOCC and the Community Pool Parlay, which is still waiting for a sponsor by the way. Enjoy!
Brian and Sam break down the contenders and pretenders of the current top 11 before moving on to week 5 picks, including a breakdown of this weekend’s mega-showdown between Alabama and Georgia. Enjoy!
We have a way in our culture of transitioning movie quotes into cultural phrases that subconsciously become a part of our lexicon long after the movie or show has been forgotten. The terms “gaslighting”, “bombshell”, “catfishing”, and…”going commando” all exist as movie, or show in the latter’s case, references to which the initial reference is largely forgotten. As a #90skid, I’ve beginning to have existential fears of the popular culture items that seem like they should be eternal becoming ephemeral. This cannot happen to “The Sandlot” a movie so etched in my childhood that it’s the one piece of art that most closely resembles it, and yet my fear is that 10 or 20 or 50 years from now people will still be walking around jabbing their friends and acquaintances who make minor gaffes with a classic, “You’re killing me smalls!” without any remembrance of the original source material. To prevent that from happening, and because there are a few NFL teams (looking at your Ravens, Cowboys and Colts) who are absolutely killing me right now. This week our tiers will be a ranking of the top five “The Sandlot” scenes.
Photo Courtesy of Michael Hickey/Getty ImagesTier 1: Pickling The Beast (Season Record: 2-5)
Steelers -1.5 over Colts
Saints +2.5 over Falcons
At its core, “The Sandlot” adheres to an epic narrative structure chronicling the adventures of our hero, Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez, with everything building up to his magnum opus: pickling the beast. The beast, if you haven’t seen, is a giant mastiff named Hercules. This is the pivotal conclusion to the greatest childhood summer in history.
Going back to last week’s them, has Justin Fields become a competent NFL quarterback or did he just need a situation to allow him to do that? He hasn’t put up gaudy numbers, but he also hasn’t needed to. Fields is doing enough to allow his defense, which is the best in the NFL, to win games for Pittsburgh right now. I see no reason that won’t continue against an Indianapolis offense that has been inconsistent at best. Pittsburgh can force Anthony Richardson into passing situations, which usually means good things are going to happen for the defense.
New Orleans let me down last week, but they are still better than this Falcons team. Alvin Kamara sat out practice today, but I expect that is more to keep him fresh for Sunday than anything. He has had a resurgence, and Chris Olave finally got in on the scoring acting last week. The Saints had a down week last week, but they should cook against a mediocre Atlanta defense this week.
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Jack DempseyTier 2: Puking on the Tilt-a-Whirl (Season Record: 6-4)
Broncos +7.5 over Jets
Lions -3.5 over Seahawks
Who hasn’t celebrated a huge win over their biggest rivals by overstuffing a lip of chewing tobacco and hopping on a rickety fair ride? Well then you haven’t really lived now have you. Watching the Sandlot boys hurl all over unsuspecting fairgoers is the comedic high of this move, plus this scene gave us the tagline for this column.
Let me be the first to admit that I feel a little nauseated by putting this much faith in Bo Nix. I might be puking off the tilt-a-whirl next after the Jets defense puts him in a blender all afternoon while I watch my Fanduel account dwindle, but the Broncos are coming off a pasting of a decent Bucs team. I’m also still not convinced that the Jets are a team you want to lay a touchdown-plus with yet.
Detroit got back on track last week and ran all over the Arizona Cardinals, and I expect more of the same. I was concerned last week that Arizona’s skill players would create mismatches against Detroit’s man-heavy scheme and that didn’t really happen. D.K. Metcalf instills similar fear, but no other Seahawks receiver really stands out as a mismatch nightmare, plus Seattle’s offensive line will struggle to hold up against Detroit’s pass rush and blitz packages.
Photo Courtesy of Dan Powers/USA TODAY SportsTier 3: The 4th of July Night Game (Season Record: 3-8)
Vikings +2.5 over Packers
Bucs +1.5 over Eagles
Patriots +10.5 over 49ers
Chargers +7.5 over Chiefs
In a movie with a giant beast dog and vacuum cleaner ball retrievers, the least realistic scene is the squad playing baseball by firework light. As a kid who absolutely tried this, I can tell you it doesn’t work. This is still the most nostalgic scene in the movie for me, because baseball was the biggest constant of my childhood summers, so I can forgive its break from reality.
Minnesota vs. Green Bay was one of the bigger struggles of the week for me. Both teams were very good to me last week, but this is about picks not feelings. Green Bay has managed to secure two wins with Malik Willis against mediocre teams, but going against a Brian Flores defense is a completely different beast. The Malik Willis career revival has been fun but he still doesn’t push the ball down the field and is overly reliant on his threat as a runner to create open throwing lanes. We saw what Flores did against a much better young quarterback last week, and with two weeks of Willis game film to work with, I expect Flores to have a solid plan against such a limited quarterback.
Tampa Bay really let me down last week laying an egg at home against Denver, but overreacting to one week rarely yields positive results. As of now, I expect Philadelphia to be without A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith on Sunday, which will allow Tampa Bay to be more aggressive defensively. Philadelphia’s pass rush did give Derek Carr problems last week, but that was the first time they have really impacted a game this season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a good Baker home game here. My one prop toss out last week hit at 13-1 odds, so I’m going back to a similar well this week! Can I tempt you with Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones both to have 25+ rushing yards in each half at +550? Both teams are favored, so theoretically that means running the ball in most halves, and I’ve just mentioned that the Eagles are likely without their top two receivers. I expect good games from both backs and this is my favorite weekly special on Fanduel.
New England was another disappointment last week but they are getting 10.5 points against the most injury-plagued team in the league. None of this means the Patriots are suddenly good, but they showed enough life in the first two weeks that they can be competitive against San Francisco’s A- team with a long week of preparation.
Kansas City has rarely shown interest in covering big spreads over the last five years, even when their offense was a mechanical juggernaut. Now that they are a largely pedestrian unit bolstered by the most gifted quarterback of all time, it seems even more likely that they will be perfectly content to grind out a 24-20 win in a game that was never really in doubt. The Chargers newfound identity under Jim Harbaugh, a.k.a. ground and pound to the max, also feeds into that game script completely.
Photo Courtesy of Ron Jenkins/Getty ImagesTier 4: The Treehouse Campout (Season Record: 7-4)
Cowboys -5.5 over Giants
Texans -6.5 over Jaguars
Commanders +3.5 over Cardinals
Bills +2.5 over Ravens
The treehouse campout sets the stage for the final showdown in the movie, but it also gives us the best explanation for why a s’more is called a s’more and how to properly make it ever. This may be the most underrated scene in the movie, as evidenced by my ranking.
Why can’t I quit the Cowboys? Is it a hedge against my boyhood hatred of the team, or can I just not quit the fact that this team should be good? I have no idea, but I also think if there’s any week to bet them it’s this one. I’m discounting it slightly because it’s on Thursday night, but the Giants are coming off of their one competent performance for the year and Dallas battled back valiantly against Baltimore last week. You’re getting at least one free point here. Take it.
Who wants to bet Doug Pederson’s first coach fired odds with me? It’s probably too late for the juice to be worth the squeeze on that bet now, but until then we can just hammer bet against the Jags until he’s gone. Jacksonville got embarrassed on Monday night and they take on a Texans team in desperate need of a “get right” game this week. Houston will get it if they can stop all the silly penalties. Demeco Ryans is an excellent coach, and way too good for Houston not to figure out how to get penalized less.
Welcome to the NFL Jayden Daniels! In the other Monday night game, Jayden had his coming out party against a reeling Cincinnati team. This week he gets to duel it out with Kyler Murray, and I mean duel it out. There will be points galore in this one. I rarely recommend betting overs, but the 50.5 here is juicy. Also, watch out for the Kliff Kingsbury revenge game storyline!
Baltimore was an excellent team last year by the numbers and they came the closest to ending Kansas City’s repeat Super Bowl bid, but when you watch them there’s just something missing with the eye test. They dominated the majority of the Dallas game, but then they let the Cowboys claw their way back. The Ravens nearly took out the defending champs on opening night but missed it by literal inches. That just seems to be kind of who they are though. Their an uber-talented team with all of the pieces and metrics to be special, but when it comes to “nut crunch” time they just don’t quite have it. Buffalo, meanwhile, does seem to have it this year with Joe Brady and Josh Allen. I’m not betting against them, especially not when they’re getting points.
Photo Courtesy of FanaticsTier 5: Squints Bags Wendy Peffercorn (Season Record: 4-5)
Panthers +4.5 over Bengals
Rams +2.5 over Bears
Raiders -1.5 over Browns
Titans +1.5 over Dolphins
This is one of the most legendary scenes in this movie, but I had to downgrade it for being just a tad bit skeezy. Things all worked out for Michael “Squints” Palledorous and Wendy Peffercorn, but I can’t recommend anyone follow in Squints methodology for attracting a mate.
Cincinnati and Chicago are officially in timeout until further notice. For further analysis, Carolina demonstrated new life with Andy Dalton at the helm and they might benefit from a home crowd for the first time in two year this weekend. Meanwhile, don’t we just have to trust that Sean McVay and Matt Stafford can kind of just figure things out at this point? I’m not convinced that Chicago’s supporting cast is any better than even this injured version of Los Angeles’s, and the McVay-Stafford combo inspires much more confidence than the Matt Eberflus-Caleb Williams combination.
Las Vegas got embarrassed by Carolina last week, which is a massive indictment, but I’m also not betting on Deshaun “Not a Running Back” Watson until further notice either. At this point, Gardner Minshew is just better than Watson is, and I’m not convinced he doesn’t have better receiving options overall either. This is definitely a skip if you aren’t hitting the mid-afternoon slate multiview.
Who knows what to make of Tennessee or Miami at this point? Who is going to play quarterback? Will it be Tyler Huntley, who was signed this week, or a demonstrably bad and injured Skyler Thompson? Will Levis may be a bad quarterback, but at least you know what you’re dealing with and theoretically can scheme around it. Also, Tennessee’s defense is at least decent. Tennessee getting points here makes little sense to me, but I also wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
Last side note: R.I.P. James Earl Jones. His cameo in “The Sandlot” was the icing on a delightful movie cake.
Last week: 8-8
Season Record: 22-26
Cover Photo Courtesy of Redbubble
Sam and Brian are back with week four picks and a stratification of the coaching hot seat merry go-round. Also, Sam picks a familiar hill to die on and Brian provides some caution about his team’s Friday night showdown. Enjoy!
After a truly horrible performance in week two, it’s time to go back to some basics. This week we’re going to be thoughtful and ask some important and hard-hitting questions in an attempt to come up with some right answers, because as Billy Costigan put it, “Maybe it would have done you good to have some question from time to time, you know?” Our questions won’t be as…um…vulgar as his were, but nonetheless they may help us arrive at some important answers.
Photo Courtesy of Ravens Wire/USA TODAY SportsTier 1: Introspection (Season Record: 1-4)
Chiefs -3.5 over Falcons
Cowboys +1.5 over Ravens
If you want to question anything, you always need to start with yourself. Everything flows from the inside out. So, let’s start with a basic one: Why have I turned into the picks equivalent of Kirk Cousins in primetime? Yes, I recognize this is fresh off the heels of a rare Kirk Cousins primetime win (that loss says more about his opponent), but I’d already teed up the question. Sometimes it may just be a bad string, Houston was a half-point away from covering on Sunday night and multiple times the Eagles were in position to cover a spread that was admittedly two points too high. Looking at this week’s Sunday night game though, I think that, ironically, the Kirk Cousins Monday night win is giving us a two-point discount on the Chiefs this week. Kansas City is a better team and, even with the loss of Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs should be able to control this game from start to finish. I would love it if this line would keep sliding to three or lower, but I won’t dare to dream.
Baltimore being favored in Dallas is a little bit surprising given what we have seen from the Ravens so far this season, but the Cowboys also just got pummeled at home by the Saints as a six-and-a-half-point favorite so maybe it isn’t that surprising. The question for this game is all about trust. Who do I trust more? Lamar Jackson behind a shaky offensive line trying to block Micah Parsons or freshly paid Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb trying to pick apart the Baltimore secondary? To be fair, I trust Baltimore’s front office, head coach and quarterback more than I trust Dallas’s, but watching Baltimore lose to Las Vegas last week against a defense that hasn’t had the same tenacity without Mike Macdonald, Geno Stone and Patrick Queen made me question their ability to hold up against a good offense. Conversely, even though Dallas’s defense got shredded by New Orleans last week, we saw what Micah Parsons and company can do against a bad offensive line in week one. Comparing Lamar Jackson to Deshaun Watson is an act of comparison malpractice, but if Lamar is running for his life most of the afternoon, then I see Dallas winning this game.
Photo Courtesy of David Butler II/Imagn ImagesTier 2: Existential Questions (Season Record: 4-3)
Patriots +6.5 over Jets
Steelers -1.5 over Chargers
Bills -4.5 over Jaguars
Was the Patriot Way a direct extension of Bill Belichick destined to leave with him or is it an ideal instilled to live on forever? Last year, I would have pronounced the Patriot Way dead, but after two weeks of watching the Patriots punch above their weight class, maybe it’s back to be carried on by Belichick’s successor. Jerrod Mayo was largely criticized in the offseason for how he handled the quarterback situation and the media, but there’s no question he has New England outplaying their talent level to start the season. Meanwhile, the Jets are enjoying competent quarterback play for the first time this millennium, but they still seem to be the same old Jets. Part of the Patriot Way is owning the Jets. Even if this iteration can’t beat Rodgers at home, they can cover this spread.
What happens when an immovable object meets another immovable object? The obvious answer is that neither force moves, which is the most fitting analogy for what the offenses will do in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers band of misfit skillplayers undefeated largely by virtue of running wild on two bad run defenses. The Steelers have the best defense in the NFL Justin Herbert is a talented quarterback, but fitting tight throws into small windows because your receivers have no separation over and over and over again is a difficult way to win a football game. Justin Fields probably won’t do much and he probably won’t have to.
Are the Buffalo Bills just good at football? This isn’t an existential question but it’s the one I’m left with after they destroyed the Dolphins on Thursday night football. Perhaps this is an overreaction to a blowout win over an overrated Miami team. That is probable, but with Joe Brady running the offense and Josh Allen making good decision this Bills offense is humming. The Jaguars might have a better defense than the Dolphins and do have a better defense than the Cardinals, but it’s not by much. Meanwhile, the Jaguars can’t seem to move the ball consistently or score in the red zone, that’s a terrible combination.
Photo Courtesy of All EventsTier 3: Hypotheticals (Season Record: 1-6)
Vikings +2.5 over Texans
Saints -2.5 over Eagles
Packers +2.5 over Titans
Cardinals +3 over Lions
What if Sam Darnold was just good at football? It’s hard to imagine typing that sentence after watching him across his NFL career, especially as someone who was convinced he was the best quarterback in his draft class. (Yes the same draft class that produced Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. We all have misses). Truthfully, it’s more likely that he’s fallen into a great situation with a good coach and excellent receivers, but hey that can make a barely competent quarterback look decent as we saw last week. Maybe Houston will finally decide to cover a spread this week, but I like Minnesota again as a home underdog.
What if the Saints just beat the shit out of everybody for the rest of eternity? Honestly, hard to rule it out at this point. The Panthers one was explainable, Carolina’s hopeless. Going to Dallas and smearing their snooty noses all over their own field? That was both sweet and shocking. Derek Carr has the highest passer rating in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. Alvin Kamara looks rejuvenated. New Orleans will likely fall back to Earth at some point, but after Monday night’s collapse Philadelphia might just be in free fall.
What if Matt LaFleur is the best coach in the NFL? After what he got out of a Malik Willis-led offense last Sunday, this seems the most likely hypothetical here to be true. Malik Willis had shown nothing to this point to suggest he could competently quarterback an NFL team for a whole game, and he didn’t do a ton to dispel that last Sunday. However, he didn’t have to. Matt LaFleur crafted a genius game plan and was able to put Malik in a situation to be efficient and risk averse. The Titans defense isn’t bad but their offense is and I’m taking Matt LaFleur over any singular thing Tennessee brings to the table.
What if the Lions insistence on playing man-to-man defense isn’t the right approach against Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.? The Cardinals absolutely shredded the Rams defense last week and if Detroit is committed to playing a high percentage of man-to-man against Arizona then it could happen to them too. Detroit’s man-to-man heavy coverage has left plenty to be desired through two weeks of play, despite adding talented pieces to it in the offseason. If they are unwilling to adapt the gameplan this week, MHJ could have another monster game. The caveat is that Detroit’s offense will likely also cook with ease, and they could just play keep away for four quarters, but if Arizona keeps pace the game will at least be tight.
Photo Courtesy of Dustin Bradford/Getty ImagesTier 4: The Interrogation Room (Season Record: 5-2)
Bucs -6.5 over Broncos
Bears +1.5 over Colts
Seahawks -4.5 over Dolphins
Rams +7.5 over 49ers
Can you be a decent NFL quarterback Bo Nix? Well, can ya punk? (Thanks for indulging my Dirty Harry. It won’t happen again…or maybe it will). I have been unabashedly skeptical of Bo Nix ever living up to his top-12 pick status and Sean Payton’s fawning. So far, he hasn’t disappointed. He easily looked like the worst rookie quarterback of week one and was clamped down by an admittedly stellar Steelers defense in week two. The problem this week is he has to travel east for the first time as an NFL quarterback against a Bucs team that looks improved against expectations to start the year. This line is three points higher than I’d prefer, but I’m not betting on Bo Nix again until he earns it.
Do you have a rookie breakout performance in you Caleb Williams? Answer me! (Went for the Dark Knight interrogator there. Sorry I’ll stop. I know it’s corny). I really think he does. I argued with my co-podcaster Brian Hall over text on Monday night about Williams’ Sunday night performance, which admitted left a lot to be desired. But, he also flashed the arm strength and ability to string together some passes that make a legitimate NFL quarterback. He did the same against Tennessee in week one. The pieces are there and this Bears team is going to be better. This would be a great week for Williams to get on track against a Colts defense that a) was never that good and b) is already banged up.
What are you without Tua Miami? Honestly, this is the question I like asking the least. What happened to Tua on Thursday night was horrifying and objectively the worst thing about following this sport. I hope he is ok and hope he has some people in his life seriously prepared to have conversations with him about his long-term well-being. As for the game, I’ve seen a Skylar Thompson-led offense before and I don’t want to have to rely on that again.
Can the Rams force their heart and nerve and sinew to serve their turn long after they are gone? Sean McVay and Matt Stafford are holding the Rams together with duct tape and pluck at this point, but I can’t help but thinking that those two are enough to keep them generally competitive. This is also a high spread for a San Francisco team that has its own injury problems with Christian McCaffrey and now Deebo Samuel out. San Francisco probably wins but give me the seven-and-a-half.
Photo Courtesy of Aaron Josefczyk/ReutersTier 5: WTF (Season Record: 3-3)
Browns -6.5 over Giants
Raiders -5.5 over Panthers
Commanders +7.5 over Bengals
Do I really have to pick between Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones? For purposes of this column, yes. In real life, neither I nor you have to bet this game. Don’t do it. Also, don’t watch this game. Pressed to an answer though, I’ll take Cleveland’s defense over anything New York has to offer.
What am I supposed to make of Andy Dalton taking over Carolina’s offense? Honestly, I’m not making a whole lot of it. I refuse to get caught with Carolina money again for the foreseeable future.
Cincinnati looked a lot better this week but they are making a bad habit of playing to their level of competition. I wouldn’t be surprise if we see more of the same this weekend. Cincinnati can’t be trusted with a line this high against any non-Panthers, non-Giants team. While I don’t love Fanduel’s Weekly Specials this week, the one that tempts me most is Ja’Marr Chase and Terry McLaurin to have 30+ receiving yards in each half at +1300. This should be a pass happy game.
Last Week’s Record: 5-11
Season Record: 14-18
Cover Photo Courtesy of Charlie Riedel/AP
A philosopher once said, “R-E-L-A-X. Relax.” Of course, that same philosopher would later out himself as a conspiracy theorist, willfully mislead fans and his employer about his COVID-19 vaccination status, go on an ayahuasca “darkness retreat” to decide his next job, rotate hair cuts from “Frat Boy” to “Sons of Anarchy” to “Peaky Blinders” to “Suburban Dad”, and suggest that he was capable of healing from an Achilles’ tendon tear faster than anyone in professional sports history in the order of months. What can I say? Philosophers are weird. We would be amiss not to heed his sentiment heading into week two of the NFL season though. Some of last week’s results supported what we already know, others confirmed what we feared and still others meant absolutely nothing at all. Let’s sort through it all.
Photo Courtesy of Alex Gallardo/USA TODAY SportsTier 1: It’s a Love Story (Season Record: 1-1)
Chiefs -5.5 over Bengals
Rams +1.5 over Cardinals
Seahawks -3.5 over Patriots
Just so we’re all clear, I’m fully prepared for the Chiefs to fall back to Earth and the Bengals to look like the Super Bowl team from two years ago this Sunday and this pick to look foolish, but it’s too tempting not to bet Mahomes in a long week of preparation (remember they played last Thursday) after kicking off his three-peat bid by looking as good as ever. Meanwhile, Cincinnati continued their trend of poor September play. Joe Burrow just likes to wake up when September ends, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue, especially if Tee Higgins remains out.
Los Angeles may have lost on Sunday night football, but yet again, they gave Detroit all it wanted and then some. The young defense gave up plenty of plays against a stellar Lions offense, but they made them earn every point. Arizona’s defense is less polished and more mistake prone. The same play will likely elicit more turnovers and empty drives. Even if it’s a road game, I love the Rams as underdogs here.
My only caution with taking Seattle is the “West Coast Team Playing in the Eastern Time Zone” principle. That concerns me slightly, but the Seahawks overcame early adversity against Denver last weekend (two first half safeties!) and came back to win fairly comfortably. New England won their Super Bowl last weekend and now they can start preparing for the second pick in the 2025 draft.
Photo Courtesy of Blogging The BoysTier 2: A Nightmare Dressed Like a Daydream (Season Record: 2-1)
Cowboys -6.5 over Saints
Jets +3.5 over Titans
Eagles -6.5 over Falcons
Browns +3 over Jaguars
These games all had me salivating as I was going through the week two lines, but they all have the potential to be nightmares masquerading as daydreams. First, Dallas looked great last weekend and now they’ve taken care of Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb financially. New Orleans pounded and kept pounding Carolina this week, but that doesn’t make the Saints good. It just confirms how bad the Panthers are.
Aaron “The Philosopher” Rodgers lost his first game back from an Achilles’ injury on Monday night, but there were flashes of brilliance. The Jets first touchdown drive was a surgical carving of a good San Francisco defense. San Francisco may have scored on eight consecutive possessions, but six of them were fields goals and that also says something positive about the Jets defense. Tennessee is a bad team with a reckless quarterback, see his atrocious pick six to give away a game last weekend, and the Jets defense will feast on that. It’s an atrocity that the Titans are favored. Grab your free cash.
Philadelphia’s offense looked great in Brazil other than one bad Jalen Hurts’ interception. Atlanta’s offense looked largely the same as last seasons, which is to say, it was mostly bad except for some Bijan Robinson brilliance. Also, just because he’s wearing a new uniform doesn’t mean Kirk Cousins’ record in primetime games suddenly gets expunged.
Cleveland may have gotten embarrassed by the Cowboys last weekend, and no I don’t feel great depending on Deshaun Watson, but the Browns still have one of the best defenses in the NFL. I expect Myles Garrett and the Browns front to make life difficult for Trevor Lawrence.
Photo Courtesy of Trevor Ruszkawski/Imagn ImagesTier 3: Now We Got Bad Blood (Season Record: 1-3)
Colts +3 over Packers
Dolphins -2.5 over Bills
Texans -6.5 over Bears
Indianapolis surprised me last week hanging close with a Texans team that picked up right where it left off last season. Anthony Richardson is raw as a quarterback, which we knew, but he’s also a dynamic playmaker, maybe even more than we realized. Green Bay lost Jordan Love for multiple weeks after he suffered a suspected sprained MCL late in the loss to Philadelphia. Love is the straw that stir’s the Packers offense and Malik Willis is not an adequate substitute. Fade Green Bay and, for fantasy purposes, its receivers until Love returns.
My initial thought for tonight’s Thursday Night Football game was that Buffalo is an appetizing underdog. Josh Allen might cook in this game, and he probably will. However, then you start to think about Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill running wild against this cobbled together Buffalo secondary, which is the biggest mismatch in the game, and it becomes harder to stomach. To the Bills fans in my life, I hope you “squish the fish”, but unless you suit up some members of the Miami PD you may struggle to slow down Miami’s receivers. (Sorry I couldn’t resist).
Chicago picked up the win in Caleb Williams’ debut, but it was largely a result of Will Levis’s inability to protect the football. If you watched this game, or even just looked at the box score, you’ll see that the Bears offense, including Williams, still have some work to do. Houston largely looks like a polished product on offense, even with adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon into a talented skill position room. The Texans may not have won convincingly in week one but looking between the lines they were the more impressive team.
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’MearaTier 4: I’m the Problem, It’s Me (Season Record: 3-0)
Bucs +7.5 over Lions
Vikings +6.5 over 49ers
Ravens -8.5 over Raiders
Broncos +2.5 over Steelers
Tampa Bay looked strong against an absolutely putrid Washington defense last weekend. That doesn’t tell us a whole lot, but they are still a competent unit and seven-and-a-half is a huge spread for a week two line. Detroit is the better team, but this line seems at least a point too high.
Minnesota, similar to the Buccaneers, embarrassed a horrific Giants defense. Don’t think I am suddenly a Sam Darnold believer, I’m not, but San Francisco is on a short week and Christian McCaffrey will likely be limited, if even available. In a short week with the 49ers traveling, Minnesota has enough talent on the roster and is well-coached enough to hang.
Baltimore loves to win but not cover these large spreads but expect them to come out with a vengeance after having their hearts ripped out by Kansas City yet again. They also have a long week of preparation and Las Vegas has the misfortune of having to go all the way to the West Coast. As I mentioned above, that usually doesn’t bode well for the team traveling East. The best part of the Raiders team is the pass rush, led by Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins, but Lamar Jackson is the perfect weapon to mitigate that.
Bo Nix and the Broncos are who I thought they were. The defense let them hang with Seattle for awhile and Nix didn’t make any disastrous plays. They are good enough not to be a home underdog against a mediocre Pittsburgh roster with a thin offensive line due to injury. This line makes little sense to me.
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/John MinchilloTier 5: We are Never, Ever, Ever Getting Back Together (Season Record: 2-2)
Commanders -1.5 over Giants
Panthers +5.5 over Chargers
I’m sorry Giants and Brian Daboll. We are never, ever, ever getting better. I’m embarrassed that I picked Daniel Jones last week. Never again.
I’m fully prepared to insert “Panthers” and “Dave Canales” and “Bryce Young” into the above statement next week. I know this is probably foolish. However, the Chargers never, ever, ever play well in the Eastern time zone (see above principle) and they are laying five-and-a-half. Call me a sucker, but I can’t pass that up.
Season Record: 9-7
Cover Photo Courtesy of Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Sam and Brian are back to break down week two action and take a look at which fanbases are enraged by other team’s shortcomings. Also, the boys make week three picks in a largely stay-away weekend. Enjoy!
Brian and Sam are here to breakdown all of the week one action, including what a slew or early season blowouts mean for the teams getting blown out and what the tightly contested Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M and USC vs. LSU games say about those four teams. Furthermore, the guys discuss their preferred caffeinated beverages and throw out a few #saiditonthepods. Last, they get into some week two picks for the week. Enjoy!
Is it the hope that kills you or the lack of hope that kills you? The debate spawned by Ted Lasso, when talking to his AFC Richmond fandom about a daunting trip to Manchester City, pits a duel of wills as old as time, or rather as old as the 1770s: cheery-eyed, American optimism vs. stiff-upper-lipped, British pessimism. As sports fans, we often see our fanbases divided along similar lines, and the divide is always starkest at the season’s inception. The glass-half-full section of the fanbase always wants this year to be the year, that rookie to pan out or the favorite player to make “the leap”. Meanwhile, the glass-half-empty faction just knows there will be injuries, heartbreak and disappointment. The beauty of sports is that we never truly know which faction will be proven right, and so, as we sit here on the dawn of a new NFL season let’s let Ted Lasso remind us not to let the hope, or lack thereof, kill us.
Photo Courtesy of Tyler Kaufman/AP PhotoTier 1: Dum Spiro Spero
Texans -2.5 over Colts
Saints -3.5 over Panthers
Or to translate the Latin, “While I breathe, I hope.” The first week of the season always presents a unique challenge trying to pick against the spread. This is our first real look at most teams and we’ve sifted through at least dozens, maybe hundreds, or possibly thousands of preseason predictions and takes about various teams and now it’s time to condense all of that theory into making an actual pick. Here are two things I think I know: the Houston Texans are a very good football team and the Carolina Panthers are a very bad football team.
If you’re the kind of guy or gal who likes to use a little history with their picks, it’s worth noting that the Indianapolis Colts are 0-9-1 in their last ten season openers. More importantly, all indications are that the Houston Texans got better, not worse, in the offseason adding Stefon Diggs to the Nico Collins/Tank Dell receiving tandem and Joe Mixon to the backfield. That with the further maturation of C.J. Stroud should make this offense difficult to keep up with, especially for a Colts team who has Anthony Richardson essentially hitting reset on his rookie year after an early season-ending injury a year ago. I do love a good quarterback parlay here with C.J. Stroud 300+ passing yards AND Anthony Richardson 50+ rushing yards at +550.
As for the Panthers, all indications are that they got worse, not better, over the offseason. It’s possible, bordering on hopeful (sorry, couldn’t help myself), to believe that Bryce Young will take a major step forward in year two after a baptism by fire a year ago. He still doesn’t have a good offensive line or set of weapons to distribute the ball too, and the defense lost its best player, Brian Burns, in a trade to the Giants. I wouldn’t say I’m pushing my chips forward for the Saints, but if they are an NFC South contender then they must win this game.
Photo Courtesy of USA TODAY SportsTier 2: A Waking Dream
Packers +2.5 over Eagles
Bears -4.5 over Titans
Seahawks -5.5 over Broncos
Philadelphia being favored over the Packers was the biggest, “Huh?” to me of the week one lines, but I downgraded this pick a tier because of the “Not Being Played On North American Soil” corollary. (Side note: this corollary was much easier to type when I could just call it the “Across the Pond” corollary). Games in different continents get weird, so I couldn’t make it a top tier game, but I do feel confident that the Packers are just better than the Eagles. Green Bay’s offense ascended over the course of the 2023 season and the Josh Jacobs signing in the offseason should only make them more dynamic. Meanwhile, Philadelphia collapsed down the stretch to end the year and had major problems on both sides of the ball. Vic Fangio was brought in to fix the defense, but his scheme is essentially the same as Sean Desai’s, so why will it be better? Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean, the Eagles’ respective first- and second-round picks who are both cornerbacks, could help but that’s a lot to ask in their first NFL game against a potent offense.
In another story of two franchises moving in opposite directions, the Bears believe they have found the quarterback to lead them out of the competent offense wilderness they’ve been mired in for years, while the Titans inexplicably moved on from the best coach in franchise history in the offseason and traded away long-time cornerstone, Derrick Henry. Caleb Williams has looked every bit the part of Chicago’s savior in the preseason, and while he will certainly have some rookie growing pains at some point this season it won’t be in this game.
Much like Chicago, Denver Broncos fans are desperately hoping, there’s that word again, they’ve found the answer at quarterback with Bo Nix. Sean Payton certainly believes so and isn’t shy about telling anyone who’ll listen. As someone who watched more Bo Nix college film than he cared to, I’m skeptical that he will be the Bronco’s white knight. Seattle’s defense will improve under Mike MacDonald and the addition of Byron Murphy II to the middle of that defensive front.
Photo Courtesy of Karl Merton Ferron/Capital GazzetteTier 3: The Thing with Feathers that Perches in your Soul
Ravens +3 over Chiefs
Bengals -8.5 over Patriots
Dolphins -3.5 over Jaguars
Lions -3.5 over Rams
I just want you to know that I consider the fact that I only found one “bird” team to include in the tier with this quote both a great failure on my writing and a confirmation of my integrity in calling things as I truly see them. Tonight’s NFL kickoff game will feature a rematch of the AFC championship round a year ago, which was the closes the Chiefs came to losing in last year’s playoffs. Baltimore has been seething all offseason. The Ravens also added Derrick Henry to add some firepower to the run game in the offseason. Defending champions classically open the season and are 0-4 against the spread in the last four. I like the Ravens to exact some small manner of vengeance tonight.
For all the talk about hope, two NFL teams are particularly hopeless for the 2024 season. One is the Carolina Panthers, and the other is the New England Patriots. They are so hopeless, in fact, that they aren’t even starting their own chosen franchise savior, Drake Maye, at quarterback. The Bengals have some question marks, mainly about Joe Burrow’s ability to return to pre-wrist injury form and how limited Ja’Marr Chase will be, but this isn’t the week for those questions to scare us away from betting against New England.
Miami and Jacksonville is a little bit of a “shrug emoji” game. I wouldn’t be shocked if you told me Tyreek Hill had as many touchdown receptions as children as Mike McDaniel’s schemed up some new offensive wrinkles while he was getting his “drug lord” perm in the offseason. On the other hand, if you told me that Trevor Lawrence looks the part of a franchise quarterback again and Josh Hines-Allen, distinguished and distuingishing move to add the “Hines”, wreaks havoc on Tua Tagovailoa for four quarters I wouldn’t be that surprised either. The three-and-a-half isn’t my favorite either, but I’m going to lean towards the home team that also has fewer “ifs”.
Nowhere is hope more abundant than in Detroit right now. If you honestly thought you’d see this day for the Detroit Lions fanbase, you’re lying. You may be lying to me or to yourself, but you’re lying all the same. Here we are though. Detroit has a nasty defense that mirrors the attitude of its head coach, an arsenal of weapons and a competent distributor. It may sound odd, but they aren’t dissimilar from the San Francisco 49ers, just without the major weapon that is Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme. The Los Angeles Rams come in after having their season end in Detroit last year, but it came down to the wire. Los Angeles is guided by the steady leadership of Sean McVay and Matt Stafford, but replacing Aaron Donald on defense is an impossible task. Los Angeles’s defense will be fine but they are young and this is a difficult assignment.
Photo Courtesy of Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles TimesTier 4: Finite Disappointment…Infinite Hope
Cowboys +2.5 over Browns
Chargers -3 over Raiders
49ers -4.5 over Jets
If that quote, or fraction of quote rather, doesn’t describe the Cowboys, Chargers and 49ers, albeit in very different respects, then I’m not sure what does. Dallas is the quintessential paper tiger, ever the preseason favorite always the postseason disappointment. San Francisco, meanwhile, has consistently been one of the best teams in football only to come up short to Pat Mahomes in two Super Bowls now. The Chargers are their own brand of hopeful hopelessness. They’ve made the playoffs only to blow a 24-point lead in the Wild Card Round and they’ve given up nine touchdowns to a division rival with an interim coach in a nationally televised game. Yikes! Jim Harbaugh may ultimately prove the coach who can erase the term “Chargering” from our lexicon, but he hasn’t done it yet.
Cleveland’s defense may be able to put the clamps on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense and is certainly capable of winning this game on their own, but Deshaun Watson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL since joining Cleveland. The Browns are still without Nick Chubb, who is recovering from last season’s gruesome knee injury, and Dallas’s defense is equally capable of winning a game themselves. I like Dallas as a road dog here.
I feel less confident picking the Chargers in Jim Harbaugh’s debut, but I kept coming back to two principles. First, even though the Chargers have no meaningful home field advantage, they are at home. Second, stripping all else aside, please tell me which coach-quarterback duo you’d rather have: Jim Harbaugh/Justin Herbert or Antonio Pierce/Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell? That’s what I thought. Even if the rest of Las Vegas’s roster is better, I couldn’t get past that.
Photo Courtesy of USA TODAY SportsTier 5: Call Obi-Wan Kenobi…He’s Your Only Hope
Steelers +3.5 over Falcons
Cardinals +6.5 over Bills
Commanders +3.5 over Bucs
Giants +1.5 over Vikings
Confession time: I always feel like I’ve screwed something up when the first tiers are littered with favorites and I cram all my underdogs into the last two tiers. Realistically, it usually means I probably have, but some of these underdog picks were truly a “hold your nose and pick someone” moment. The first of these is taking the Steelers over the Falcons. This is more of a bet against the Falcons and all of their “NFC South Favorite” buzz. Just because they are the most talented team in a trash division, doesn’t make them good. Also, when was the last time we saw Atlanta beat anyone convincingly? Mike Tomlin has a knack for having the Steelers play teams closer than they should and Atlanta’s modus operandi has always been to play games closer than they should, even if it looks like they should be blowing their opponent out. Also, let’s not discount the Arthur Smith revenge game factor. Justin Fields will eventually relegate Russell Wilson to a bench role, or more accurately Russell Wilson will relegate Russell Wilson to a bench role, but it won’t happen this week.
Buffalo laying six-and-a-half points after losing their most reliable target in the offseason and hosting an Arizona team with all up arrows feels like it might be the sucker bet of the weekend. The only problem is I can’t decide which side of the bet is the sucker. Josh Allen could easily keep the Buffalo offense decent just with his own dual threat capabilities and ability to throw the ball to virtually anyone, but the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection (Side note: I’m all in on this connection in the fake football realm) could be lethal out of the game and Arizona could run up and down the field on a Bills defense that had heavy offseason turnover. I think the right play is to just take the points, but I don’t feel confident.
Here’s the ranking of rookie quarterbacks I’m looking forward to betting on this year: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels……that’s really it. Sorry Bo Nix. Sorry Drake Maye. Michael Penix if you unseat Kirk Cousins at any point you get to be third by default. Tampa Bay is an arrow pointing down franchise and there’s a new hope around the Commanders that I think shows itself in Daniels’s debut. My only cause for concern here is the Commanders’ defense is still putrid.
This seems like it should be the Giants game to lose right? Minnesota is already having to turn to a backup quarterback after J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending meniscus injury and the game is in New Jersey. This could look exceptionally foolish, but I still believe in Brian Daboll as a playcaller and Daniel Jones can’t be worse than Sam Darnold right? Right???? Please answer me! If you want to bet on this game without betting on this game can I interest you in a few props? First, we have Justin Jefferson or Malik Nabers to score the first touchdown in the game at +400. That seems like really good odds considering that Darnold will probably use Justin Jefferson as his first, second and third read on most dropbacks and Malik Nabers is easily the Giants’ most explosive receiver since Odell Beckham, Jr. Neither of these teams have a strong ground game and I think it’s likely the first score comes from outside the red zone, which makes it likely to be a pass to a receiver. In a cross-game prop, you can also get Ceedee Lamb and Justin Jefferson at 200+ combined receiving yards for +130. Lamb going against Cleveland makes that a little more worrisome, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Justin Jefferson cooks and Lamb only needs a few catches to help cash this bet.
Another season is here. Enjoy! Standings will be updated after week one.
Cover Photo Courtesy of Gif Tenor/Apple TV+
Sam and Brian are here with Week 1 picks and reactions to Florida State’s Irish letdown last weekend. Also this week, the SOCC and the Pampers Community Pool Parlay return and Sam returns to a hill that he’s died on many times before. Enjoy!
Brian and Sam release their preseason top 25. Don’t worry obligatory Bo Nix shot made it in! Enjoy!
Sam and Brian continue the college football preview series this week with a look at their top 25 players for the college football season. Some controversy, lots of discussion, and the obligatory Bo Nix stray. Enjoy!
The boys are back to start gearing up for another college football season. In the first Spread Offense season preview series, Brian and Sam run down their top 25 new faces in new places for the 2024 season. Plus, a few old pod staples return like dying on Stanford hill and random strays for Auburn and Iowa. Some things never change. Enjoy!
The boys are back post-draft to break down the NFL draft, give out some superlatives and let Brian salivate over the newest Los Angeles Rams. Sam fires off a rare scorching hot take: Bo Nix, Sean Payton and Broncos’ fans might want some aloe. Enjoy!
Sam and Brian are here to give their thoughts on the NFL draft complete with mid-round steals, player comps and quarterback breakdowns. Enjoy!
Brian and Sam are here with a little offseason content. On today’s episode, we go back through the history of the podcast for those of you who haven’t been with us for nine years and counting. If you’ve listened to ever prior episode of the “Spread Offense”, then God bless you, we’re so sorry, and feel free to skip this one…or to use it as a quick refresher. Enjoy!
Of all the Super Bowl’s I’ve picked since “4 Down Territory” began just over a decade ago, this one has caused the most indecision. I’ve always prided myself on being able to pick the Super Bowl champion based on the play, reaction and body language of conference championship weekend for the respective winners. This year was harder. This year, I was torn between watching San Francisco scratch and claw its way Tony D’Amato-style back into a game it had no business winning for the second week in a row. On the flip side, Kansas City went back to business as usual…kind of. Patrick Mahomes organized some brilliant drives in the first half, but mostly it was Steve Spagnuolo frustrating and discombobulating MVP Lamar Jackson and an exceptionally well-timed punch by L’Jarius Sneed.
Perhaps I also struggled because of the baggage of the season brought into this game. For a good portion of the season, San Francisco has looked like the best team in the NFL. Sure, there was the Christmas Night Massacre at the hands of the Ravens and the missed field goal to lose to the Browns, then there were the two playoff games where they looked vulnerable, but mostly the 49ers have looked like the best team in football. Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl-champion Chiefs mostly resembled a shell of the team that strutted its way to the second Super Bowl of the Pat Mahomes-era last February. They lost and got shutdown by the lowly Raiders and Broncos, one of which fired its coach and the other jettisoned its quarterback to the bench. There was the Kadarious Toney offsides and Pat Mahomes screaming at officials. Truthfully, Kansas City hardly resembled a team that should be playing past the Wild Card round for much of the year, but then the playoffs came around. Mahomes is still Mahomes. Spags ratchets up the defense for the big games. Travis Kelce shows up when it matters most.
Photo Courtesy of Santa Cruz SentinelBack and forth. Back and forth. Reading articles and imagining different scenarios for how this game might unfold in my mind. I have leaned both ways multiple times over the last two weeks, and I will have y’all know that I never do that, but this game is different. This game is hard. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario for either team winning in myriad ways. I am truly torn…or was.
I long held the view that San Francisco was the best team I watched play this year. That is littered over the last five months’ worth of columns. I fully expected that if San Francisco were playing in Super Bowl LVIII that this column would be dedicated to defending my pick of the 49ers. Explaining how the pundit narrative that “the quarterback is the only thing that matters” is not only wrong, but frankly absurd. (Side note: those pundits would probably use a Chiefs win here as a landmark case for their flawed view of football roster construction and they’d be so wrong, as I’ll explain later). Discussing how Mr. Irrelevant ascended to Super Bowl-winning quarterback. But then I spent another playoff season watching Patrick Mahomes…
As I sat down to write this column, all I could hear was Robin Williams leaning in my ear whispering, “Carrrrrrpe Diiiiiiem. Seize the day.” That may seem odd or unrelated, but it’s what I thought of. The indelible memory of Dead Poets Society is Peter Keating’s Carpe Diem speech and Ethan Hawke’s defiant standing on the desk. And that’s what I thought of when I think about the fact that we have an opportunity to bet on Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl as an underdog…probably for the last time. This is an opportunity that must be seized.
I am convinced that Mahomes is the second-best quarterback I’ve ever watched. (Sorry Boomers I’m not quite old enough to remember Joe Montana). He’s already an all-time great and he is still at the peak of his powers. His supporting cast is flawed, but we will probably never get this again. Mahomes seems to have that same undeniable “it” factor that Brady and Montana and all the other great quarterbacks have. At the end of the day, he is Ozymandius. We look on his works and, unless we’re Chiefs fans or Swifties, we despair. And now we get him as a Super Bowl underdog? Gather ye monies while ye may.
The Pick: Chiefs +1.5 over 49ers
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) holds the Vince Lombardi Trophy after winning Super Bowl LVII against the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsBonus Commentary
Here’s where I think the “quarterback is all that matters” crowd will be wrong about this game. As much as Mahomes is the driver for why I think Kansas City is the pick, I think there are two factors that will make the difference between a brilliant Mahomes game in a losing effort and a third Lombardi trophy. The first is Kansas City’s rediscovered ability to win on the ground. Isiah Pacheco has run like his life depended on it for a good portion of these playoffs, and run defense is a vulnerability for the 49ers super collection of talent. I think Pacheco’s ability to run the ball and prevent San Francisco from a) pinning their ears back and speed rushing Mahomes as often as possible and b) committing to blanketing Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce and daring any other receiver to beat them. The second reason is Kansas City’s defense. We’ve heard a lot this year, almost to the point of annoyance, that this is the best defense Kansas City has had in the Mahomes era. It may be an annoying take, but it’s not wrong. Spagnuolo is a defensive mastermind and the equal of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive prowess. He will have a plan to make things uncomfortable for San Francisco and Brock Purdy. He will have something, along with pass rushers Chris Jones and George Karlaftis and lockdown corner L’Jarius Sneed to force some turnover worthy plays out of Purdy. If the Chiefs defense can capitalize on that just once, that may be all the help Mahomes needs.
Photo Courtesy of Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty ImagesThe Props
Super Bowl Sunday is all about the prop bets. If you’ve made it this far you’ve heard enough from me and these props will probably make sense, so I’m just going to list them for you (maybe with a few parenthetical explanations because I can’t help myself). I did throw a few extra long shots in here because something fun always happens in the Super Bowl. Chris Conley touchdown? Let’s go. Kyle Juszczyk, a.k.a. the best husband in the NFL, 25+ receiving yards? Straight cash homie. Kadarious Toney dusting off the cobwebs and catching another Super Bowl tuddy? Cha-ching. The props:
Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy 50+ combined rushing yards +150 (both teams rush the passer well and both quarterbacks scramble out of pressure well, there will be some QB rushing yards in this game)
Isiah Pacheco 30+ rushing yards in each half +170
Kyle Juszczyk 25+ receiving yards +550
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP +145
Travis Kelce Anytime TD +100
Exact Score: Kansas City 24 San Francisco 21 +9000
Triple Crown Parlay: Brock Purdy leading passer/Rashee Rice leading receiver/Christian McCaffrey leading rusher +1600
Kadarious Toney Anytime TD +1000
Chris Conley Anytime TD +2800
Isiah Pacheco first TD +500
Christian McCaffrey 2+ TDs +220
Same Game Parlay Special: Isiah Pacheco 60+ rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD, Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards, Rashee Rice 70+ receiving yards +469
Enjoyed the season! Come back next year for more picks to fade. Thank you all for your readership this year. It truly means a lot to me.
Last Week: 2-0
Playoff Record: 6-6
Season Record: 134-140-10
Cover Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
There were plenty of dog-themed song titles I could have ripped off to subtitle this week’s column. Who let the dogs out? Seemed too cliché…even 24 years later. Every dawg has its day. Too on the nose. I could have even done Led Zeppelin’s “Black Dog”, but anyone who’s listened to the song would know it’s not even about a dog. No. In the end, inverting Florence + The Machine’s “Dog Days Are Over”, seemed an appropriate choice. As you may have guessed, I’m going with underdogs this week. I feel like some of my recent struggles have been associated with getting too favorite-happy…or I just suck at this and this is a true fade column. Either way, the dog days are definitely not over.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 19: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs is tackled by linebacker Patrick Queen #6 of the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. Rob Carr/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Rob Carr / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)The Mahomes-Jackson Legacy Statement: Chiefs +4.5 over Ravens
This pick boils 100% down to if you give Patrick Mahomes this many points in a playoff game, I’m going to take it every time unless I have an absolute reason not to. Admittedly, this Ravens team, Lamar’s recent play, injuries to Isiah Pacheco and Joe Thuney and Kansas City’s receiving corps (despite recent signs of life) give me some very great reasons not to, but they aren’t absolute. We have seen past postseasons where legendary quarterback play trumps all. Patrick Mahomes is that good. Plus, if it gives us another week of shirtless Jason Kelce stealing Taylor Swift’s shine all the better.
Despite my inability to pick against the spread, we’ve done ok with our props through the playoffs. Lamar Jackson and Mahomes are two of the best quarterbacks in the league (duh) and this is a heavyweight fight. They’ll leave their marks, albeit in different ways I think. I like a few parlays involving both. For Mahomes, you can parlay 200+ passing yards with an Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown at +416. Lamar has shown he likes to target the athletic tight end in the red zone and I don’t think that changes just because Mark Andrews has returned. To keep things all in the Chiefs, you can also parlay Mahomes 250+ passing yards with an Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown at +287. Pacheco’s energizer bunny running style has been a major reason why the Chiefs offense has looked so much better in the playoffs. I think his involvement is critical to the Chiefs keeping things close or even winning. I also like betting Pacheco 30+ rushing yards in each half at +240. We’ll do the same thing with Lamar. Two parlays. One with his own team and one with the Chiefs. I like the odds on Lamar 50+ rushing yards and Zay Flowers 50+ receiving yards at +203, as well as Lamar 70+ rushing yards and Pacheco 70+ rushing yards at +384.
Here’s the bottom line. This is going to be a legacy statement game for one of the two quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson either vanquishes the greatest quarterback of his generation to get to his first Super Bowl, or Patrick Mahomes adds another feather to his already impressive cap (no Chiefs headdress reference intended) and drags a team that has long looked undermanned to yet another Super Bowl appearance. Call me what you want, but I’m going to take the proven commodity, especially with him getting points.
Photo Courtesy of SportskeedaDon’t Let The Sun Go Down On Me: Lions +7.5 over 49ers
The sun will go down over the course of the later starting NFC championship game, but it will be out and the weather will be beautiful throughout. If you watched the 49ers-Packers divisional round game, you will know that may make all the difference for Brock Purdy. He clearly struggled with the weather last week, but in the intermissions in the rain looked mostly like himself, especially on the game-clinching touchdown drive.
To add a poorly thought out double entendre to the tagline, there was a point in time where the sun could have set on both of these quarterbacks’ time or opportunity to be starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Jared Goff was traded from the Rams to the Lions largely as a throw-in to get him off the roster. Most people, myself included, felt that he was nothing more than a stopgap quarterback in Detroit who could help them be bad enough while they collected talent elsewhere until they landed a franchise quarterback. That may have even been Detroit’s initial plan, but all of that seems foolish now. Let’s not try to talk ourselves into Goff as a star quarterback, but he’s certainly a capable distributor of the football who mostly takes care of the football and gives the talent around him an opportunity to succeed. That description applies almost to a tee to Brock Purdy too. As the 2022 Mr. Irrelevant, most of us thought he would probably never start an NFL game unless it was a Week 18 “rest everyone” game. Certainly no one would have expected him supplanting 2021 number three overall pick Trey Lance, who was thought to be the future franchise quarterback. But here we are and Brock Purdy even spend some time in the sun (sorry couldn’t help myself) as the MVP favorite.
Photo Courtesy of Detroit Free PressEven though I’ve spent far too long talking about the quarterbacks, this game comes down more to the talent around the two quarterbacks. San Francisco is loaded with offensive weapons and can attack in myriad ways. With Detroit’s secondary struggles, especially on the outside, expect the 49ers game plan to heavily involve trying to exploit that. On the flip side, San Francisco’s excellent pass defense will be difficult for Goff to exploit, but the 49ers front seven is built to rush the passer and defend the pass. This could be a big David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs day. Detroit has some offensive line injuries with Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson, who likely will not play, but they have enough depth and talent their to still be successful on the ground, which should open up some playaction and innovative route concepts out of run looks. San Francisco is the better team, but this Detroit team is plenty good enough to stay in this game if they play mistake-free football and can force a few of their own. I think the Lions have enough success in the running game to keep things close.
I’ve talked enough about this game but here are a few props I like based on what was discussed above. Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs 150+ combined rushing yards (+200), Christian McCaffrey or David Montgomery to score first TD (+200), Jared Goff and Brock Purdy each complete 25+ passes (+650). Here are a few same-game parlay options I put together: Christian McCaffrey over 34.5 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 22.5 receiving yards and Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown (+315), then Brock Purdy AND Jared Goff 250+ passing yards and David Montgomery anytime touchdown (+425).
Photo Courtesy of Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY SportsBonus Props
Here’s to a great two games and some close football. Here are a few bonus props I like for the weekend just for fun. Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes 6+ combined passing touchdowns (+115) feels like a good cover bet for a few longer shot props. I’ve already outlined how important the running game will be in both games, so I like each team to score 1+ rushing touchdown in both games (+480). Consequently, it feels like one of those two bets is almost certain to hit. Lastly, I love the fun prop of “Successful two-point conversion in both games” (+750). Those are long odds, but if you think both games will be close, which I do, there’s a good chance the mathematically right call at some point will be to try a two-point conversion, plus we know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as anyone in the league when it comes to going for two.
Last Week: 1-3
Playoff Record: 4-6
Season Record: 132-140-10
Covery Photo Courtesy of Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Let’s face it, last weekend was kind of a snoozefest. C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love were great stories. The Detroit Lions getting a home playoff win was also a warm and fuzzy moment, but outside of the Rams and Lions game, we got a lot of blowouts. Philadelphia couldn’t get to the airport fast enough. The Cowboys Cowboysed (doesn’t flow as well as “Chargering” and we probably won’t try that one again). The Dolphins froze up stiffer than Andy Reid’s mustache. I can’t promise you this week’s games will be better, but I’m cautiously optimistic they will be and at the very least these games should get offensive. In honor of a weekend full of offense, we’ll bring in our most offensive television character of the 21st century to tagline each game.
Photo Courtesy of Niners Wire/USA TODAY Sports“That’s What She Said”: 49ers -9.5 over Packers
The most memorable Michael Scott quote gets the place of prominence in this week’s picks. Did “The Office” invent the genre of “That’s What She Said” jokes? No. Did it ensure that they would endure (in infamy?) forever? Yes, it did. As long as Peacock exists (sorry to salt that programming wound), “That’s What She Said” jokes will endure.
Green Bay is coming off an impressive win over the Cowboys and it will likely be popular to grab the points here, but not so fast my friend. You could argue that San Francisco will be rusty after a week off (and two weeks off for their starters), but don’t forget that Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the game and this is a veteran locker room. San Fran will show up ready to play. Jordan Love has proven himself to be a threat as a starting quarterback in this league, but the Packers still have an abysmal defense despite what happened last weekend. Shanahan and Brock Purdy will find multiple ways to attack this defense. I also have a feeling that we’ll look back Monday and realize that the Packers, as opposed to the Texans, were the team that looked a little too good the week before. Some might say they shot their wad too early…that’s what she said.
I like offense this whole weekend and this game is no exception. Here are a few player props that I like for this game. Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to combine for 4+TDs at +320. I do think the Packers best bet is running the ball with Jones against this 49ers defense and that will create passing opportunities for Love in the passing game. In that vein, I like Aaron Jones 25+ rushing yards in each half (+125) and a cross-team parlay of Aaron Jones 50+ rushing yards and Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions (+130). For some reason, Brock Purdy is the favorite to lead this game in passing yards, but I think Green Bay will be playing from behind, so I like the Jordan Love most passing yards in the game odds at +118. Last, but not least, Run CMC is a machine so grab the McCaffrey 2+ TD odds at +150.
Photo Courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel/USA TODAY Sports“You Miss 100% of the Shots You Don’t Take. -Wayne Gretzky -Michael Scott”: Lions -6.5 over Bucs
Detroit packing out Ford Field and winning a nailbiter was easily the highlight of the Wild Card round. Tampa Bay kicking around Philadelphia’s corpse for three-and-a-half hours was the lowlight. This line is a little bit higher than I hoped it would be, but the Lions are better than the Bucs and it’s easy to forget that Tampa Bay was limping into the playoffs before mercy killing the Eagles. I was toying with teasing this line down, but then Michael Scott reminded me that Wayne Gretzky told us that we miss the shots we don’t take. Detroit will storm its way into the Championship round. We forget that Goff has significant playoff experience. I would argue that of the team’s left Detroit has the strongest homefield advantage (blah blah Arrowhead, sorry Detroit’s fanbase wants this one more). The Lions will move the ball up and down the field on this Bucs defense and Tampa Bay won’t be able to run the ball on the Lions. The key will be bottling up Baker and not letting him extend plays and rip off some chunk plays out of structure. That’s where Aidan Hutchinson and company come in. All in all, this sets up nicely for Detroit, high line be damned.
If you read the above paragraph, or even perused it, you’ll know some Lions props are coming. Sam LaPorta surprisingly suited up last week and scored a touchdown. He’ll do it again this week (+140). David Montgomery scored the first touchdown last week and you can bet him to repeat it at +550. I also like the David Montgomery anytime touchdown parlayed with Jared Goff 225+ passing yards (+123). If you want to hedge with a Bucs prop, I think Mike Evans is the guy. He was quiet last week and he is probably the one potential gamebreaker for the Bucs this week. I like Mike Evans 80+ receiving yards (+120) and Mike Evans 60+ receiving yards AND an anytime touchdown (+143).
Photo Courtesy of Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports“And I knew exactly what to do. But in a much more real sense, I had no idea what to do.”: Texans +9.5 over Ravens
If that doesn’t sum up how I feel about most of these games, then I don’t know what does. For those who’ve forgotten, this is Michael’s quote after Stanley’s heart attack, which indirectly leads to Dwight’s fabulous Hannibal Lecter impression. (Fff fff fff). I’m torn on this game. On the one hand, I feel like I have underrated Baltimore all year and I kind of need to rectify that. On the other hand, I abandoned the Texans when they had been good to me all year and felt foolish last week. I think the play is to grab the points though. Houston is well-coached and C.J. Stroud has proven that the moment isn’t too big for him. Baltimore is also a team who has proven itself content to win without covering a big spread this year (anyone remember that Cardinals onside kick recovery?). Lamar Jackson is going to win his second MVP award, and he should, and the Ravens will probably advance to the championship round, but I think the Texans are good enough to make them earn it.
My favorite individual prop of this game is Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown at +200. Likely has become a go-to target for Jackson and I expect him to get some red zone opportunities in this game. These odds are probably longer because of the potential for Mark Andrews’ return, which would theoretically take snaps and targets from Likely, but it’s increasingly unlikely that Andrews will be activated. Furthermore, there’s plenty of “12” personnel in this offense. Additionally, I think both Lamar and Stroud go over 225+ passing yards (+178) and I like the either Nico Collins or Zay Flowers to score the first touchdown odds (+440). You can also grab Nico Collins to score the first touchdown odds at +1000. Is there only a 9% chance that Houston gets the ball first, scores a passing touchdown on the first drive and it’s to Nico Collins? Vegas is really good at this so I’m sure the math checks out, but that feels like a bargain.
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Ed Zurga“I’m not superstitious, but I am a little stitious.”: Bills -2.5 over Chiefs
This one is challenging to me so I found myself resorting to a laundry list of reasons for picking each team. Here’s the list for Kansas City: Pat Mahomes, Mahomes is 8-1-1 as a playoff underdog against the spread, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo, Josh Allen’s Madden curse, Chris Jones, Rashee Rice’s emergence, better health and the Taylor Swift effect. Here’s the list for Buffalo: Josh Allen’s cannon, Josh Allen’s fake slides, a competent receiving corps, “The Pit”, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid as a red zone threat, Ed Oliver, “13 seconds” revenge game and while it may be hard to beat a team twice in the same season it’s actually harder to beat a team that already beat you in the regular season in the playoffs. Appealing to the side of ‘stition, give me “The Pit” and revenge over the Madden curse and Swiftie magic.
This is the game that, ironically based on who the quarterbacks are and the last playoff meeting, gives me the least confidence in offensive fireworks. The weather also plays some role in that. I’m once again going to be that any quarter will be scoreless at +310. I also like the Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown odds at +270. I like a cross-team parlay: Josh Allen 200+ passing yards AND Isiah Pacheco 50+ rushing yards at basically even odds. You can also get Mahomes 200+ passing yards and Travis Kelce anytime touchdown +170 (you know, just in case there is a little Swiftie magic).
Last Week: 3-3
Season Record: 131-137-10
Cover Photo Courtesy of LinkedIn
Whether it was Apuleius or Aesop who first said it, we’re all familiar with the adage, “Familiarity breeds contempt.” It also breeds the cat-and-mouse coaching maneuvers that make the NFL playoffs compelling. Each of these matchups has at least a few teams, coaches or players who are very familiar with each other, making this weekend both exciting and exceptionally difficult. I’ll admit up front that this Wild Card Weekend is really hard and I struggled some with every pick.
The NFL playoffs are finally here and it’s time to go game-by-game with the picks. I’ll list each week in order of how good I feel about each game.
Photo Courtesy of Patrick McDermott/Getty ImagesBest Bet: Cowboys -7 over Packers
My two biggest hang-ups with this bet were: trusting the Cowboys (and by extension Mike McCarthy) in the playoffs and betting a playoff line this high. Ultimately, I had to go with Dallas with it being in the safe confines of “Jerry World” and my lack of faith in Green Bay’s defense to hold up. Dallas’s offense vs. the Packers defense is the single biggest mismatch of Wild Card Weekend and it’s just too difficult not to imagine a scenario where the Cowboys had a three-touchdown lead in the second quarter and everyone holding a Packers ticket is also holding a pit in their stomach.
Sticking to the narrative that Dallas’s offense is a big mismatch against the Packers’ defense, and this will lead to the Cowboys going up early and the Green Bay offense trying to play catch-up. I like the special bet of CeeDee Lamb and Jaylen Reed to combine for 200+ receiving yards (+240). One thing about Joe Barry’s defense is they will open the umbrella with lots of Cover 2 and Cover 4 to keep Dak from having easy throws down the field. That leads to lots of Jake Ferguson. I like Jake Ferguson over 4.5 receptions (+112) and Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown (+165).
Photo Courtesy of Sean M. Haffey/Getty ImagesRoad Underdog That Feels Destined to Win: Rams +3 over Lions
It’s hard to believe but we’re still only a few years removed from the Rams and Lions quarterback swapping Jared Goff and Matt Stafford. You may also remember Stafford promptly leading the Rams to a Super Bowl title, and now Jared Goff coming into his own in Detroit bringing them their first division title since Henry Ford invented the assembly line (approximately). The Rams have been one of the surprise teams of the year and part of it has been the play of Stafford and his immediate connection with Puca Nakua. The other part has been the emergence of Kyren Williams as a weapon in both the running and the passing game. Detroit was a media darling coming into the season and they have largely lived up to those expectations, but the defense has had some alarming stretches of poor play and that is a source for concern coming into the playoffs. It’s also concerning that Goff won’t have Sam LaPorta as his safety valve after getting injured last week.
Let’s swing for the fences with a few fun props in this game. I like Kyren Williams 2+ touchdowns (+440) and for the bolder, whom I’ve heard fortune favors, Kyren Williams to score the first touchdown AND Amon-Ra St. Brown to score the second touchdown (+4600). If you, like me, also think this might be a backyard-style game with the ball flying all over the yard then you can parlay Matt Stafford 250+ passing yards with Jared Goff 225+ at just worse than even odds (-104) and this is the portion of this segment where I obligatorily remind you that both teams are dome teams.
Photo Courtesy of Alex Grimm/Getty ImagesHomefield Advantage Still Matters: Chiefs -4.5 over Dolphins
Kansas City and Miami have both revealed themselves to be incredibly flawed teams. I was fully prepared to bet against both in the playoffs, and likely still will at some point. I worry about the weather and the atmosphere at Arrowhead being enough of a damper on Miami’s offense to end their season. Tua is finally healthy in a playoff game, but his regular season track record or fading later in the season and in colder climates are enough to go against here. Miami’s injuries have also hampered their pass rush enough that Pat Mahomes should have time to throw, which may mitigate the lack of help he’s received from his receiving corps.
One of my major secrets is that I’m always going to be the under if I’m betting point totals. It’s just the right play. It may not be cool, but neither is tossing money down the toilet. I love the under 44.5 total points for this game, especially if you think the Chiefs win this game then the under should appeal to you. The Dolphins only path to victory here is to outscore the Chiefs, but if this game gets messy then the point total will be down and that favors Kansas City. Isiah Pacheco is the player I like the most in this game and you can parlay Pacheco 40+ rushing yards with Pacheco anytime touchdown for a reasonable rate of return (+110).
Photo Courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig/Getty ImagesJosh Allen’s Santa Claus Problem: Steelers +10 over Bills
I’m well aware that I’m violating the Bill Simmons Playoff Gambling Manifesto here by betting a team I don’t think can win, but what evidence has Buffalo given us that they are going to cover a double-digit spread recently? I think Buffalo is just too good, especially with T.J. Watt out, for Pittsburgh to pull off this upset, but I trust the Steelers defense and Mike Tomlin to keep things reasonably close in frigid Buffalo. Oh what is the Santa Claus problem? Josh Allen can’t help himself handing out presents to everybody. You want a touchdown Stefon Diggs? Here ya go buddy. Minkah Fitzpatrick wants a pick six? You just jump right on this late throw over the middle. Josh Allen is probably going to be a major reason Buffalo wins this game. He also might be a major reason Pittsburgh covers.
Pittsburgh’s defense to score a touchdown anytime is +950. Now, Josh Allen’s turnovers may come in such a way or in a location on the field that doesn’t create an opportunity for the Steelers to house it, but it seems likely that Josh Allen will turn the ball over at some point in this game. It feels like there’s better than a 10% chance that directly results in a Steelers touchdown. Gambling markets are incredibly accurate, so maybe I’m wrong, but this feels like an inefficiency. Let me be clear. I love Josh Allen and think he’s a remarkable talent and he should win a Super Bowl at some point in his career. He’s a dynamic player who impacts the game both with his legs and his arms and in bad weather having him function as a runner could be a huge advantage for the Bills. I kind of like the Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing odds at +700.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 24: Case Keenum #18 of the Houston Texans is sacked by Alex Wright #91 of the Cleveland Browns during the second quarter at NRG Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Houston, Texas. Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Tim Warner / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)Coin Toss #1: Browns -2 over Texans
There are lots of scenarios where this game plays out and Houston advances to the division round, but I think the most likely scenario sees a strong performance from the best unit on the field: Cleveland’s defense. C.J. Stroud is having one of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever, but without Tank Dell, I worry that Stroud’s easy safety valve is gone. Against Cleveland’s defense, I can’t shake the feeling that that will matter. We did recently see Cleveland take Houston to the woodshed and they did it with a remarkable Joe Flacco performance. Is it time for “Playoff Joe”?
One of my major premises is Cleveland’s pass rush making life difficult for C.J. Stroud. Cleveland to record 5+ sacks at +430 is the bet if you are betting on Cleveland. Regardless of who wins, I think either scenario sees a lot of pass attempts for C.J. Stroud. Either Houston wins behind a performance where Stroud is just the best player on the field, or Cleveland’s defense is suppressive enough for Flacco to build a lead and Stroud is having to sling the ball around. Stroud to throw for 250+ yards at even odds is my other favorite bet here.
Photo Courtesy of Chris O’Meara/APCoin Toss #2 (Also Should Probably Stay Away): Bucs +3 over Eagles
We’re only two years removed from plucky Philadelphia, led by run-first Jalen Hurts, going to take on the GOAT in Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. Man can things change in two years. Now Hurts has been paid like a superstar and the Bucs are the plucky team led by the ultimate scrapper: Baker Mayfield. The game will still be played in Tampa thanks to the NFL’s antiquated division rules, but Philadelphia is still favored by three. My only remaining question is: why? Because they have a better record? The Eagles are entering the playoffs with the 29th ranked defense by DVOA and a banged-up Hurts, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. There’s a scenario where Baker gets sacked eight times and Tampa Bay does nothing on the ground and this looks silly, but the Bucs are the better team right now. The aforementioned scenario is just such a possibility that I can’t feel good about it.
Given the uncertainty around this game, I would probably stay away from most of your parlays too, but there will be touchdowns in this game. You can parlay Jalen Hurts (rushing or receiving) touchdown with Rachaad White anytime touchdown to +244. Those feel like bankable odds.
Last Week: 8-8
Regular Season Record: 128-134-10
Cover Photo Courtesy of Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
Sam and Brian are back to discuss Monday night’s national championship and to say happy trails to the greatest college football coach of all time. Enjoy!
The tagline may mislead you into thinking that I am suggesting no one cares about Week 18. Colloquially, that is what that phrase means, however this is no mere colloquialism. In this context, it’s a legitimate question. The key to this week, and betting on it, will be identifying the teams where it matters the most. As Ernest Hemingway once put it, “The Playoffs are a fine place and worth fighting for.” I think I agree with both parts.
Photo Courtesy of Courtney Culbreath/Getty ImagesTier 1: Games That Matter to One Team (Season Record: 20-15-2)
Steelers -3 over Ravens
Jaguars -3.5 over Titans
Bucs -4.5 over Panthers
Seahawks -3 over Cardinals
John Harbaugh and the Ravens would probably find it hilarious to honor their namesake and bury the Steelers’ playoff hopes alive with a cask of Amontillado, but they don’t get enough thrill out of it to risk major injury before the playoffs when they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Pittsburgh’s offense has had a surprising shot of energy with Mason Rudolph entering the starting lineup and the defense is still good enough to make life difficult for Tyler Huntley.
Jacksonville feels like the wheels are falling off the wagon at the wrong time, but I trust them in a game where they can clinch the division and Tennessee has no incentive to win outside of screwing the Jaguars. This is a bet on Doug Pederson knowing how to close some ass.
Good grief did Tampa Bay flop as soon as I’d come around on them! What a stinky performance against a bad Saints team. Now Baker’s back is against the wall and another loss finds them on the outside looking in. Carolina is in the unique situation of having no real incentive to win or lose this game, not having their own pick that is already locked in at one (Ouch!). You could argue that Carolina has incentive to try to carry some momentum into the offseason, but that doesn’t really compare with the “win or go home” scenario the Bucs are in.
Seattle doesn’t technically control its own destiny, but all they need is to win and have Green Bay lose. We’ll talk about Green Bay in a little while but expect the Seahawks to pull out all the stops to win this one. The Seahawks looked better with Drew Lock at quarterback, and frankly I’d feel better about this if he were starting, but Arizona has plenty of incentive to not win this game with a shot at getting the number two pick. This, like with Jacksonville, is a bet that Pete Carroll knows how to get his team into the playoffs in a must-win situation.
Photo Courtesy of Troy Taormina/USA TODAY SportsTier 2: Games That Matter to Both Teams (Season Record: 18-26-1)
Colts +1.5 over Texans
Saints -3 over Falcons
Dolphins +2.5 over Bills
Saturday night should offer one of the best games of the week. Indianapolis and Houston both face a “win and in” scenario. C.J. Stroud is back and showed no residual concussive effects last week rolling the Titans. Gardner Minshew is a classic overachiever and Michael Pittman is back in the mix after recovering from his own gruesome concussion. Houston’s receiving corps is banged up with Tank Dell and Noah Brown already out and Robert Woods listed as questionable. The Colts have a little more offensive firepower around their quarterback at this juncture of the season, and I think that will make the difference.
The Saints and Falcons both stink. I sincerely hope and pray that neither of them makes the playoffs. New Orleans nauseates me slightly less and has resembled a half-decent football teams a handful of times this season, as such they get my vote and my money here.
There are a lot of reasons to take the Bills here, and that seems to be the consensus pick. What kind of column would this be without a well-placed zag though? Also, there is an outside chance that Buffalo could enter this game knowing they are already in the playoffs. A Steelers loss OR a Jaguars loss OR a Texans-Colts tie clinches a playoff berth for Buffalo before they even take the field on Sunday night. However, they would win the division and claim the two-seed in the AFC (something they should desperately care about) with a win over Miami, so they will be full steam ahead regardless of if their playoff fate hangs in the balance. Miami retains the two-seed and division win with a win, and they should also desperately want that home-field advantage for at least two rounds. Miami, once again, proved their ability to flop (like a fish?) in big games last week, but I think a focused team bounces back this week. Buffalo has won four in a row, but they haven’t always done it very impressively. Bailey Zappe almost pulled off the “Full Delhomme” in the first half last week and Buffalo still couldn’t cover the spread. I don’t trust Miami or Buffalo in a big game to be completely honest, but the Dolphins are a home dog and have a shot to claim the two-seed. Mike McDaniel will have some fun ideas cooked up for this game, and a few of them are bound to work.
Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields breaks through the Green Bay Packers defense for a long touchdown run during their game Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Photo Courtesy of Mark Busch/Shaw Media)Tier 3: Games That Matter to One Person (Season Record: 31-28-3)
Bears +3 over Packers
Patriots -1.5 over Jets
Raiders -2.5 over Broncos
I’m fully aware that the Packers are in a “win and in” scenario and the Bears technically have nothing to gain by winning. However, they also have nothing to gain by losing. Chicago already has the number one pick in the draft locked up thanks to the Panthers’ ineptitude. That fact makes this game extremely important to one person in particular: Justin Fields. This is Fields’ last opportunity to show the Bears front office that he’s the quarterback of the future and that they should draft someone else, like Marvin Harrison, Jr. for example, or trade the first pick in the draft. Would his performance in this game truly make a difference in what Ryan Poles is going to do with the first pick? Probably not, but he’s got to play like it does. Plus, Chicago would love to make things harder on a Green Bay team that typically owns them.
The Patriots and Jets are both out of the playoffs. New York just wants to get to next year and get Aaron Rodgers back to replace the Zack Wilson-Trevor Siemian-Tim Boyle three-headed…kitten? Abomination? Meanwhile, New England technically has a shot to get the number two pick in the draft and end up with either Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, but that’s not what matters most to the current GM. Bill Belichick is still closing in on Don Shula for most wins all-time, and if you think he will abort that mission to tank one game because that might help the Pats get the number two pick then you haven’t paid any attention to what Bill Belichick is about.
Would the Raiders consider promoting interim head coach Antonio Pierce to the permanent role? It seems unlikely, but his players love him, and he has made the Raiders unquestionably better since taking over for Josh McDaniels. I’m not sure if he has a shot or not, but winning this week can’t hurt his chances. Meanwhile, Denver is in all kinds of turmoil right now. It’s hard to believe but they are in no better a spot than the week after they gave up 70 points to Miami, and maybe even worse off considering that this franchise now feels directionless with the impending Russell Wilson divorce.
Photo Courtesy of Stephen Maturen/Getty ImagesTier 4: Games With Seed Implications (Season Record: 24-32-3)
Lions -3 over Vikings
Cowboys -13.5 over Commanders
Giants +5.5 over Eagles
Did the Lions get screwed last week? It sure seems like it. Dan Campbell seemed to think so. Now is not the time to go in “Eff You” mode though, that comes in the playoffs. Maybe with a rematch against the Cowboys? The Lions could technically get the two-seed with a win and a Cowboys loss and an Eagles loss. Unlikely, but not impossible. That is worth playing for, especially considering how much better Detroit seems to play indoors. Meanwhile, Minnesota could make the playoffs if they win AND the Packers lose AND the Seahawks lose AND either the Bucs or Saints lose. If those “ifs and buts” were candy and nuts then we’d all have a Merry Christmas. Basically, this game kind of matters to both teams but probably doesn’t. I’ll just take the better team.
Dallas, aka the beneficiary of the bullshittery (yes that’s a real word and no don’t Scrabble check me) that screwed the Lions last week, is so much better at home than on the road that they should aggressively gun for the two-seed. Plus, with a loss and an Eagles win, Dallas would drop all the way to the 5-seed and get potentially zero home playoff games. The Cowboys need this, and the Commanders need to lose this to lock up the number two pick. You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out what’s going to happen here.
Philadelphia needs to win this game to have a shot at the NFC East and the two-seed in the NFC. Here’s the problem: they aren’t playing good football at all. The Giants looked much better with Tyrod Taylor at the helm and would probably love to knock Philadelphia into a wild card spot, even if that means helping Dallas secure the division. Talk about your all-time “damned if you do” scenarios.
Photo Courtesy of Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer a USA TODAY NetworkTier 5: Games That Don’t Matter to The Teams Playing and Shouldn’t to You Either (Season Record: 27-25-1)
Browns +7.5 over Bengals
49ers -4 over Rams
Chiefs +3.5 over Chargers
The only people betting on these games are sharps with inside information, gambling addicts and sociopaths with more money than healthy neurons. Stay away from all of these.
If that’s not strongly worded enough, let me remind you that between six teams, there will be zero starting quarterbacks playing in these three games. Stay the hell away.
Last Week: 5-11
Season Record: 120-126-10
Cover Photo Courtesy of Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo
Sam and Brian are back with all things Natty-related! As is our custom, we not only pick the games but give you some fun props to follow along with to enhance your championship-viewing pleasure. Enjoy!
It’s playoff time! It’s New Year’s Six time! Brian and Sam are here to break down all the upcoming action, including playoff picks. Enjoy!
The above title, and all this week’s tier titles, comes from a line from the ‘90s Rush hit, “Roll the Bones”. If you’ve never heard it, do yourself a favor and go listen to it now. “Roll the Bones” has all the classic Rush features: thundering bass line, beautifully stunning hook/key change and a primal […]
It is a prevailing sentiment that the West has fallen behind the East, and specifically the Southeast, in college football. The death of the Pac-12 serves as the exclamation point for that. It’s been six years since a Pac-12 team made the playoffs. Stanford and Cal are joining the “Atlantic Coast Conference” just to retain […]
Brian and Sam are back and still trying their darnedest to piss off Mack Brown. The guys agree that this is a sleepy week of college football, which means upsets will be lurking. Enjoy!
After a stellar 2021, last year was an unmitigated disaster. The regular season record was abysmal. The postseason record was slightly better but mediocre. Then the Super Bowl came. I missed not one, not two, not three, but every single one of my Super Bowl bets and prop bets. Rest assured, I have been brooding on it for seven months and I’m ready to redeem last year’s putrid showing.
Sep 18, 2022; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) breaks away on a long run against Chicago Bears safety Eddie Jackson (4) in the third quarter during their football game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-WisconsinTier 1: A Case in Addition by Subtraction (The 2023 Aaron Rodgers Story)
Bills -2.5 over Jets
Packers +1.5 over Bears
Who will be better this season: Aaron Rodgers’ new team or Aaron Rodgers’ old team? After a few years of media griping and public dissatisfaction, Aaron Rodgers is finally out of Wisconsin and under the bright lights of…East Rutherford, New Jersey. I don’t think there is any doubt that Rodgers makes the Jets better, but the fascinating question will be whether the Packers are better off without his drama? My bet is yes. Green Bay opens the season in Chicago, and while Aaron Rodgers can claim that he’s owned the Bears his whole career, the truth is that the Packers have owned the Bears my whole life. Chicago is getting some modest hype entering the season, but they still haven’t proven that they can field a dynamic offense or a passable defense. Moving to Rodgers’ new team, the Jets will host the Bills to open the season on Monday Night Football (which also happens to be 9/11). From an emotion and narrative standpoint, everything points to a Jets win, but this is the real world. Buffalo is a better and more complete football team. Josh Allen is healthy and has a better supporting cast than Rodgers, especially on the offensive line.
Photo Courtesy of Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesTier 2: Early AFC West Implications
Chiefs -5.5 over Lions
Dolphins +3 over Chargers
Kansas City kicks off its title defense tonight against the sexiest pick of 2023: the Detroit Lions. Everyone seems to be flocking to the Lions bandwagon, but the Chiefs are still the team to beat. Even if Kelce can’t go, or is limited, Kansas City will still find ways to score. The biggest concern for the Chiefs is how the defense holds up against an admittedly potent Lions attack if Chris Jones doesn’t play. One can only assume that the Chargers are favored over the Dolphins because of…home field advantage? At full strength, Miami was better than the Chargers last year and that’s how they’ll start this year. Also, Los Angeles has no appreciable home field advantage with a rented stadium space and a non-local fanbase. In one of a few special bets for the week, this is also a good bet for highest scoring game of Sunday at +550. Also, Miami can be bet at 20/1 for highest scoring team on Sunday, giving you a nice 25+/1 return for both bets.
Photo Courtesy of USA TODAY SportsTier 3: Hot Road Starts for Playoff Teams
Bengals -2.5 over Browns
49ers -2.5 over Steelers
Eagles -4 over Patriots
Jaguars -4.5 over Colts
Coming off playoff bids, these four teams start the season as road favorites, but there are good reasons to like all of them. Philadelphia is the most questionable in going to New England, but the Patriots still have lots of questions to answer to improve on last year’s disappointing season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is coming off of one of the best seasons in franchise history. The Eagles did have to replace both coordinators and chose to replace their top running back, but otherwise most of their key pieces return, plus they added the “Baby Rhino” Jalen Carter. San Francisco’s season went up in flames when they literally couldn’t field a quarterback in the NFC Championship game, but those problems are behind them now. Pittsburgh should be better in Year 2 of the Kenny Pickett era, but this 49ers team is stacked on both sides of the ball and this is a small spread. The Battle for Ohio will be more interesting than last year’s lopsided Monday Night Football affair. Deshaun Watson is back, but he still hasn’t proven he is a good NFL quarterback anymore. Cincinnati proved last year that the previous year’s Super Bowl run was no fluke and they are still the best team in Ohio. Lastly, Jacksonville is better than Indianapolis. The Anthony Richardson experiment will be fun if nothing else, but Trevor Lawrence has grown into his own as a legitimate threat in the NFL and the Jaguars front office took strides in the offseason to put him in a position to succeed.
Photo Courtesy of the Associated PressTier 4: A Glass Menagerie
Titans +3 over Saints
Giants +3.5 over Cowboys
Broncos -4 over Raiders
Seahawks -5.5 over Rams
This felt like a random collection of games and my logic for picking these games is “fragile” at best. Seattle seems like a reasonable bet given that the Rams are tanking out of the gate and Cooper Kupp has already been declared out for Sunday’s game. I also love the Seahawks’ odds, at 14/1, to be the highest scoring team of Sunday. The NFC East division clash on Sunday Night Football should be one of the better games of opening weekend. Dallas has been a regular season juggernaut in the Dak Prescott era, but Brian Daboll is arguably the best coach in the NFL right now and the Giants will be competitive at home. On the flip side, Las Vegas is a bad team and the coaching upgrade in Denver is so tremendous it’s hard to imagine they don’t take a step forward. To be clear, this is more of a bet against the Raiders than an endorsement of the Broncos. Las Vegas is also the best bet to be the lowest scoring team on Sunday at 17/1 odds. Finally, Tennessee traveling to New Orleans feels like a trap game. Last year, an Atlanta team that was expected to be awful went into New Orleans on opening week and pulled off an upset. The Titans are a better team than the Saints and they are getting three points. Take the points.
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/John AmisTier 5: Bad Teams, Big Underdogs
Cardinals +7 over Commanders
Panthers +3.5 over Falcons
Texans +10 over Ravens
Buccaneers +6 over Vikings
I really hate betting on bad teams and it’s reasonable to avoid these games altogether. Aside from the Rams, the Cardinals are the other team actively tanking team already this season. But, can you honestly say you feel good betting the Commanders as a full touchdown favorite over anyone? Washington is a great eliminator pick for the week, but don’t bet them. In a similar vein, the Panthers are expected to have some growing pains with Bryce Young taking the helm, but are we forgetting that this is Desmond Ridder’s first full season as the starter in Atlanta? He didn’t exactly inspire confidence last year and while his supporting cast is better, Atlanta’s roster isn’t significantly better than Carolina’s that they should be laying 3.5 points. Plus, since redemption is the theme of the week, Carolina needs to redeem the “Helmet Mary” loss to Atlanta last year. I also like this as the lowest scoring game of Sunday at 7/1 odds. Houston is finally back to trying to play competent football and Baltimore never covers double digit spreads. C.J. Stroud will have some growing pains, but Houston is already in a better spot than they were a year ago. On the other hand, Tampa Bay is undoubtedly worse off than they were a year ago, but have we already forgotten how much of a paper tiger the Vikings were? Minnesota was a quintessential win-without-covering team last year and they need to prove that they aren’t still that team.
Cover Photo Courtesy of Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
Brian and Sam are back to discuss the high and lowlights of college football’s opening weekend and make some Week 2 picks. Brian asks Sam about a few buy/sell candidates and brings back his #saiditonthepod. Enjoy!
If asked to name the most universally beloved musical artists in the college football community at-large prior to Saturday, how many artists/bands would you have named before reaching Jimmy Buffett? Big and Rich kicked off ESPN’s College Gameday forever. Other modern country artists who know five guitar chords and sing about chugging beers and hitting […]
Week 1 is finally here, and Sam and Brian are breaking down all the big games. Plus, what do Dennis Green, Ed Orgeron and Pete Weber all have in common? They were impersonated on this podcast episode. Plus plus, what would taste worse: Rice-flavored Kool-Aid or Rice cooked in Kool-Aid? Let the debate begin!
The Week 0 college football appetizer is upon us, which means it’s time for Brian and Sam to pick some real games and to unveil the top 25 bets for the preseason including a few over/unders, a few conference picks and our playoff and Heisman picks. Also, somehow managed to work in both “Zodiac” and […]
In the penultimate preview episode, Brian and Sam are here to discuss the top 25 players entering the college football season. Brian has some gripes with Sam’s list but agrees that number one is unassailable. Enjoy!
Brian and Sam are back and in 9 seasons of podcasting they release the first ever preseason top 25 list! We could list them all for you but that would take away all the fun. Enjoy!
Welcome to the 2023 season! Brian and Sam make their long awaited return to the podcast. After a few life updates and welcome backs, Brian and Sam delve into a new format to preview the college football season. This week we have our Top 25 New Faces in New Places. I could give you the […]
Why do we do this to ourselves? Why do we follow sports? More accurately, why do we obsess over sports? We spend inordinate amounts of time, energy, money, and brain space watching sports, attending sporting events, or, hell, just daydreaming about our favorite teams and players. College sports are particularly egregious where we pull our hair out, break our TVs and do irreparable damage to our blood vessels based on the mercurial play of teenagers and twenty-year-olds. Just to be clear, this isn’t some judgmental high horse, I’m preaching to the mirror as much as anyone. The answer, fortunately, isn’t to be cool or have something to talk about at work other than work. The answer is because, unless you are a fumble-prone running back playing for Herman Boone, sports are unbelievably fun. In homage to that, I’m bringing back “The Most Fun Final Four” column. You’ll be happy to know that this column includes no gambling advice. For all of you entering an office pool and looking for the bracket you can have the most fun rooting for, this column’s for you. You endured enough bad gambling advice from me during football season.
Going back to my 2017 column, there are three criteria for picking a fun bracket, that I, surprisingly, still agree with (odds on that were +450). For starters, your picks must be conceivable. As I so elegantly said six years ago, “there is nothing less fun than your bracket being completely worthless by 4 P.M. on the first Thursday.” That holds up. Second, style of play matters. Tony Bennett is a great guy and Virginia helped me win a pool not that long ago, but watching vice-grip halfcourt defenses and brickfests is zero fun, sir. Then, most importantly, you don’t get to be a bore and pick four one seeds, Kentucky, or Duke.
Photo Courtesy of Stephanie R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY SportsSouth Region: Arizona Wildcats
Arizona’s aesthetic has thankfully returned to the Lute Olson era design, but don’t be fooled. These aren’t Lute Olson’s Cats. Tommy Lloyd brought a quicker style of play from Gonzaga, and Arizona has been both fast and efficient. The Wildcats are third in the country in points per game, led by Azoulas Tubelis. Another Lithuanian stretch four who averages just a hair shy of 20 points and 10 boards per game. He is surrounded by strong guard play from Courtney Ramey and Kerr Kriisa, who is named after Steve Kerr. For those who don’t know or remember, Steve Kerr was an Arizona Wildcat before playing for Jordan’s Bulls and coaching the Golden State Warriors. If that’s not a fun rooting quirk, then what is?
Here’s how we arrived at Arizona over the other teams in the region. Alabama is already the Darth Vader of college sports thanks to the football dynasty, but additionally the off-the-court situation surrounding the tragic murder of Jamea Harris and subsequent poor comments and actions make it even messier to support Alabama. As an Alabama fan, I feel conflicted about this, so I can’t imagine someone who wasn’t previously an Alabama fan trying to hop on the bandwagon now, or it being fun to do so. Baylor is a ho-hum three seed and plays like a worse version of Alabama. Keyonte George is exciting and will be a lottery pick, but other than that the Bears don’t bring much to the table. I addressed Virginia in the opener. Outside of the Charleston Cougars, no higher seed has the “fun” factor or the chops for a deep run. If you want to get “upset-y” with things, Charleston can fill it up and would be my second “fun” pick…until Virginia puts a stick in their craw for 40 minutes.
Photo Courtesy of Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY SportsEast Region: Marquette Golden Eagles
Speaking of teams with great aesthetics. Marquette’s navy, powder blue and gold color palette is one of the cleanest in college basketball and they finally have the team to let it fully pop. Furthermore, after a disappointing stint at Texas, Shaka Smart is back where he belongs: getting a strong mid-major to fulfill its highest potential. Plus, we all should remember how fun Smart was at VCU. Here’s a clip if you don’t. The Golden Eagles play fast, second in the country in fastbreak points, and spread the ball around to an array of scorers instead of centering on one offensive star.
Purdue is flat-out boring and they always falter in the tournament. Kansas State won’t make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Tennessee, my actual final four pick, would be another intriguing option here but stylistically they aren’t as fun as Marquette is and they are dealing with the loss of Zakai Zeigler to a torn ACL. Duke and Kentucky violate the third criterion. Memphis would also be a fun pick and has a real shot to beat Purdue…if they can beat a stellar Florida Atlantic team. Those two cancel each other out…if only you could pick them as a package and just take whoever wins like a First Four game.
Photo Courtesy of Kevin M. Cox/Associated PressMidwest Region: Houston Cougars
Right now you are thinking something along the lines of: two two-seeds and a one-seed isn’t exactly the gutsiest final four. That also wasn’t the title of this column. We are trying to pick some winners that we can also feel good about rooting for and enjoy the best parts of this beautiful sport. Houston embodies that the most from the Midwest, plus, even if they are the one seed seeing them stick it to Texas, who acts like the state’s big brother in all things, still feels like an underdog story. Plus, they have a real opportunity to play a Final Four game in their hometown since Brad Stevens and Gordon Hayward led Butler to the 2010 national championship game in Indianapolis. Marcus Sasser’s groin injury is the major looming question mark for the Coogs heading into the Big Dance, but the good news is they probably won’t need him to get out of the first weekend with title hopes still intact.
Texas could arguably be thrown into the Kentucky and Duke camp based on how the program carries itself, but what they have done with an interim coach has been impressive. The rest of this region is full of teams that always find their way into the NCAA tournament, but always let down those of us foolish enough to trust them in March. What’s up Miami, Indiana, and Iowa?
Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/John AmisWest Region: Arkansas Razorbacks
Now we’re talking! You didn’t think I would get too “chalk-y” for a “most fun” final four did you? Arkansas, stylistically, is very different from our other three selections relying on a top-20 defense and playing predominantly inside the 3-point arc offensively. However, you know what else is fun about March Madness? Watching future NBA stars light it up on the grandest college stage. Thanks to the rise of G-league Ignite and overseas options for players wanting to make some cash before going pro, we are seeing fewer and fewer NBA lottery picks in the NCAA tournament. Arkansas is the only team in the field that features two soon-to-be lottery picks, Anthony Black and Nick Smith, Jr. Black is a tall, smooth facilitator who reminds me of Ben Simmons with better hair, a much better attitude and a much much much better jumpshot. Smith is a Bradley Beal-type scorer who has the potential to take over a game or half and he’s finally healthy. Those two paired with Eric Musselman’s coaching, which always seems to get the most out of his teams in March, give Arkansas a chance to make another deep playoff run.
Kansas had their fun last year and is a vulnerable one seed. Vulnerable one seeds are one of the least fun things about March. It’s never fun to see one of your Final Four picks get exposed by a 16-seed as they gut out a 6-point victory and portend your bracket going up in flames 48 hours later. We can’t pick two Pac-12 teams, plus UCLA’s best player (Jaime Jacquez) looks like Tom Sandoval, who just outted himself as a mega-douche, so by association Jacquez and the Bruins are out. The novelty of picking Gonzaga to go to the Final Four has worn off. One last fun subplot from this region is the potential for a “Gael-off”! If St. Mary’s beats VCU and Iona upsets UConn, we will get the first all-Gaelic NCAA tournament matchup. Where else do we get quirks like that? Strap in and let’s have a fun three weeks.
Cover Photo Courtesy of Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Super Bowl weekend is here and it’s time to redeem my putrid conference championship weekend takes. As a transparent person, I have to readily admit that, “…we will look back on this game as a paradigm-shifting game for the way we view championship roster building. The days of simply trying to find the best quarterback in the league and let everything else fall into place are numbered” before a game that nearly entirely hinged on the fact that one team found itself without a quarterback capable of throwing the ball past the first down marker almost immediately is an all-time rough take. News flash (that pretty much nobody but me apparently needs): quarterback is still the most important position on the field. All that said, here’s to having a short memory and shaking off the stains of the past and making all the money back on some fun Super Bowl bets. As you know, I’m a subscriber to the “Have your game script made” philosophy.
Photo Courtesy of Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesGame Narrative:
I don’t know if it’s my lackluster performance recently or that I’ve had too much time to think about this game but it was difficult committing to a script for this game. Here’s where I’ve settled though. The Eagles are the more complete team. Philadelphia’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing is probably the single most important component to effectively defending a healthy Pat Mahomes, much less one that is three weeks removed from a high-ankle sprain. Kansas City’s interior pass rush is a strength but their secondary is vulnerable against a dynamite receiving duo like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, plus Jalen Hurts ability as a runner especially paired with the improvements he’s made at using that ability to buy time to throw the ball down the field make it hard to trust the Chiefs’ defense to get a stop if they have to have one. Ultimately, I think this game is pretty close and probably lower scoring than a lot of people think. I think Philadelphia gets one more stop than Kansas City and wins by a touchdown. I also think Kansas City has at least one drive that ends in a field goal that makes us say, “If Pat Mahomes is 100% they score a touchdown on that drive.”
Prediction: Eagles -1.5 over Chiefs
Photo Courtesy of Hunter Martin/Philadelphia EaglesProps and Specials:
The most fun part of betting the Super Bowl isn’t betting the game itself, but rather the game within the game. Sportsbooks have always opened the prop floodgates for Super Bowl Sunday, and now with gambling becoming legal in some states that pastime has only blossomed. Here are the nine special bets I like the most for Sunday’s action in no particular order.
Special #1: Correct Score: Eagles 27 Chiefs 20 +8500
You’ve got to have a correct score bet for the Super Bowl. It’s like having turkey on Thanksgiving or extended family political debates on Christmas…it’s just what you do. I said above that I like the Eagles in a close one mostly due to Kansas City coming up one stop short, which this score fits well. Also, notice that it goes under the score total of 50.5. On that note…
Special #2: Total Points Under 51.5 -125
Personally, I rarely go for point total bets, but again it’s Super Bowl Sunday so let’s just open up the metaphorical checkbook. Fifty-and-a-half feels like a sucker bet, even if I do think the final goes under that too. Fifty-one is kind of a magic number for NFL totals. Scores hit or go under fifty-one a pretty significant percentage of the time, so if you are going to bet this just pay a little vig (bumps odds down from -110 to -125) and get this thing to 51.5 and take the under.
Special #3: Margin of Victory of Exactly 7 points +790
See special #1. Some might advise a well-placed hedge here and bet the 3-point margin of victory special instead, but this is an all engine, no breaks kind of column. If you are with me on the score pick, then sprinkle a little more on this too.
Special #4: Jalen Hurts to Rush for 25+ yards in Each Half +300
This bet is predicated on two things: 1) the game being close enough that Jalen Hurts needs to use his legs in both halves and 2) Chris Jones forcing him too. I think if these teams played four times, that scenario plays out more than once so this is a value play.
Special #5: Any Player to have a 60+ yard Reception +300
Still betting that Jalen Hurts gets outside the pocket and uncorks one to DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown for a huge chunk play. Kind of like this. (Sorry I had to sneak one Alabama clip in here.)
Special #6: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith Combined 200+ Receiving Yards +500
I think Kansas City’s secondary is at a big disadvantage here. This is a longer shot but at 5/1 odds I think it has value.
Special #7: Miles Sanders First Eagles Touchdown AND Travis Kelce First Chiefs Touchdown +1800
Individually each of these things seem pretty reasonable, so why is this 18/1 odds?
Special #8: Total Yardage of All Kansas City Chiefs Touchdowns Under 32.5 Yards +116
This bet entirely depends on how many touchdowns the Chiefs score. I have them scoring two touchdowns, which just means their average touchdown length has to be less than 17 yards (16.5 if you wanna be a stickler).
Special #9: Both teams make a 33+ Yard Field Goal -102
This one hit for me last year, and I have four total made field goals in my final score prediction. No brainer.
Playoff Record: 6-6
Cover Photo Courtesy of Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Since we only have two games to cover this week, let’s take some time to ask a few burning questions about each game to help us shape the bet slip. This is the time where it becomes important to remember that you don’t want to just pick bets at random. You want a game narrative for each game and however you answer these burning questions will critically inform your game narrative.
NFC Championship- 49ers +2.5 over Eagles
Photo Courtesy of Bill Streicher/USA TODAY SportsBurning Question #1: Will Brock Purdy be Mr. Irrelevant or Mr…Relevant?
Brock Purdy has been a revelation for the San Francisco offense down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs, well him and the addition of all-world athlete Christian McCaffrey. It’s undeniable, though, that Purdy looked vulnerable against the Dallas Cowboys last week, only managing to guide one touchdown drive, and that with the assistance of an incredible concentration play by George Kittle. That being said, he is a smart player and he has the tools around him to succeed. The key for Purdy is to neither allow the ferocious Philly pass rush to keep him behind the chains nor let them force him into bad turnovers. The “Mean Green” are capable of doing that to Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks, much less last pick of the draft QBs, but if Brock can get the ball out quickly and make good decisions, which I think he can, then he gives the rest of this San Fran roster a chance to go win the ball game.
Burning Question #2: Can the San Francisco defense keep Jalen Hurts in the pocket?
Jalen Hurts progression as an NFL quarterback from last year to this year has been incredible. He’s an improved passer. He’s also much better at using his considerable speed and running ability to set-up a downfield pass attempt, as opposed to just taking off to run. This San Francisco defense is loaded with speed and talent, but they are most vulnerable over the top, which means that if Jalen can extend plays that Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown will be set up for chunk plays over the top of the defense. San Francisco has got to find a way to pressure Jalen Hurts while also keeping him in the pocket to avoid giving up cheap, big plays.
Burning Question #3: Which elite offensive skill player can bend the game to his will?
Here’s my hottest take of this weekend: we will look back on this game as a paradigm-shifting game for the way we view championship roster building. The days of simply trying to find the best quarterback in the league and let everything else fall into place are numbered. It would be foolish to say that having a Pat Mahomes doesn’t make you an automatic contender, but only one team can have them. Far smarter, and more attainable, is trying to build a stellar defense and a unique collection of offensive skill players to make life easier on your quarterback, whomever he may be. We will look back on this playoff game as the one where we started to realize that teams like the early-Russell Wilson Seahawks are more sustainably built contenders than hoping you get the next Brady or Rodgers or Mahomes. Back to the question at hand, the two skill players that are going to be the “x-factors” for this game are Devonta Smith and George Kittle. Looking back at the second question, I think Devonta Smith is setup to be the receiver to take this game over if the Eagles win. With how San Francisco plays and what their strengths are, I think they will find ways to keep A.J. Brown underneath their umbrella and fly to him after the catch to keep him from ripping off big runs after the catch. Devonta Smith though is a revelatory route runner and has a knack for putting himself in the right position to be both open and findable for Jalen Hurts. That puts him in prime position to slip behind the San Fran secondary for big gains and settle into open areas of turf on the plays when Hurts has to extend plays. On the other side, we’ve already discussed that one of Brock Purdy’s keys is to get the ball out of his hands quickly. That could be to McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel or Elijah Mitchell out of the backfield, but even better will be hitting George Kittle vertically as he quickly slips through the middle of the Philly defense.
Overall, I still think San Francisco is the better team. I’m a little nervous with the game being in Philadelphia, but even though Philly looked unstoppable last week they haven’t had to move the ball on or stop a team as complete as San Francisco all year. My only trepidation goes back to question one. If the Philly pass rush can make Brock Purdy uncomfortable for 60 minutes, then they might can force him to make enough mistakes that the rest of San Fran’s roster can’t overcome.
AFC Championship Game- Bengals +1 over Chiefs
Photo Courtesy of Sam Greene/USA TODAY SportsBurning Question #1: How limited will Pat Mahomes be?
It really sucks that the most important question about this game is about the health of Pat Mahomes’ ankle. His high ankle sprain visibly limited him against the Jaguars last week, but the Chiefs were still good enough to take down the upstart Jaguars. This week we will see what Pat Mahomes can do against a Bengals pass rush that has been really good. Furthermore, he will be pressed to keep up with a Cincinnati offense that has been lights out.
Burning Question #2: Can Chris Jones and company exploit Cincinnati’s offensive line injuries enough to force the Bengals into making mistakes?
Chris Jones is the singular star on this Kansas City defense. They have plenty of solid starters that are unheralded due to their prodigious offense, but Chris is the star. Fortunately for Kansas City, he will line up against the most vulnerable part of Cincinnati’s offense, the injured offensive line. If he can get in Joe Burrow’s face or negate the Bengals ability to run the football, then he might can force the Bengals into long-down situations and keep Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd from having the time to get open and wreak havoc.
Overall, I just don’t feel comfortable with Mahomes ankle like this trying to keep up in a track meet against a Bengals offense that has torched better defenses than the Chiefs.
Special Bets I Like
Photo Courtesy of Kevin Sabitus/Getty ImagesSpecial #1: A two-point attempt in both games +500
Both of these games are likely to be close, which makes it likely that a team ends up in a situation where it’s advantageous to go for two. Admittedly, I would feel much better about this bet if Doug Pederson were coaching in this game.
Special #2: Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk 200+ combined receiving yards +600
This is the longest shot I’m on for the week, but as someone betting the Bengals and 49ers this seems like a good “narrative” bet to sprinkle some on. It’s hard to imagine the Bengals win without a decent showing from Chase, and Philly’s defense is good enough to force second and third options to step up….like Brandon Aiyuk.
Special #3: Travis Kelce 75+ receiving yards AND George Kittle 50+ receiving yards +280
The 49ers and Chiefs both have very good, but very different reasons to keep their All-Pro tight ends focal points of the offense this weekend. In Kansas City’s case, limiting the amount of moving, running and potential contact for Pat Mahomes will be a forethought, which means quick crossing and seam routes to Kelce will feature prominently. As for San Francisco, limiting the amount of time the ball sits in Brock Purdy’s hand minimizes the impact Philly’s pass rushers can have and mitigates the chances of a back-breaking sack or interception. As we saw last week, that mean quick east-west passes to McCaffrey and Samuel and then up-the-seam looks to Kittle. Fortunately, he probably only needs to catch two or three of those to hit the 50-yard mark.
Playoff Record: 6-4
Playoff Special Record: 1-3
Cover Photo Courtesy of Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images
I hate to say this after humbly approaching the wild card round with overall success, but I feel really good about the division round this week. After watching the better part of all six games over the weekend, I feel like I have a reasonable pulse on the remaining eight games. However, you may have noticed the title of the column is a spin on the common Latin adaptation: “Let the buyer beware.” In an attempt to stay humble, this week’s picks come with the tag: “Let the bettor (direct translation: dice-player) beware!”
Photo Courtesy of Charlie Riedel/APSaturday Games
Chiefs -8.5 over Jaguars
Giants +7.5 over Eagles
Kansas City is the team that I feel the worst about backing this weekend, not because they aren’t better than Jacksonville or won’t win the game but because they were horrible against the spread in the regular season. That being said, one of the games they did cover was a home game against Jacksonville. They are the better team and I do have confidence that the Andy Reid-Pat Mahomes leadership understands how to ratchet the team up a notch in the regular season. Also, Jacksonville has essentially won their Super Bowl two weeks straight and I think they are reaching the “just happy to be here” phase in the season. They knocked off the Titans to take the division crown in Week 18, then overcame some Madden shit in the first half of the Chargers game and stormed back from 27 down for a sports movie ending. But that’s the thing, the sports movie ending was last week for them, this is the part of the movie where you get a word scrawl over an emotional musical montage and a picture of Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson hugging and looking longingly into each other’s eyes that reads, “The following week the Jaguars lost to eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs by three touchdowns.” There is a still piece in the back of my mind that’s fully prepared to watch the Chiefs build a 24-3 lead and then find a way to win this game 27-21 though.
New York and Minnesota easily played the best football game of the Wild Card round. Danny Dimes and Saquon Barkley had New York’s offense clicking on all cylinders and Minnesota was right there to match. There were only a handful of penalties in the game, although one huge one that kept Minnesota’s hopes alive, and no turnovers. Brian Daboll has proven his NFL head coaching bonafides already and he’s ready to give Philadelphia everything they want and more. Jalen Hurts is still trying to get back to full strength too. This game is going to be a banger and this line is a point too high at minimum.
Photo Courtesy of Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesSunday Games
Bengals +5.5 over Bills
49ers -3.5 over Cowboys
Earlier this week, these lines both sat at four-and-a-half and, surprisingly, both have moved in the opposite direction I would have anticipated. On the one hand, I have to ask myself, “What am I not seeing?” On the other hand, wait until Sunday and see if these lines move to even more favorable positions.
Cincinnati and Buffalo meet again to rematch the fateful Monday night game of a few weeks ago where we all watched horrified as Damar Hamlin collapse to the Cincinnati turf and require resuscitation and defibrillation on the field. This will be emotional for both teams, and that makes this a little bit difficult to gamble on. I think that favors the underdog, but I also think Cincinnati is just the better team right now. There is the possibility of Hamlin providing a galvanizing force for Buffalo to finally reach their potential, but I don’t think it’s a good bet either. The biggest source of concern on the Bengals side of things is their suddenly depleted offensive line with Jonah Williams likely out with a dislocated kneecap and Alex Cappa unlikely to return from his ankle injury this week. If Cincinnati wins this game, they will have to throw the ball often and efficiently. If you like the Bengals this week, can I interest you in a special bet of Ja’Marr Chase 75+ receiving yards AND Hayden Hurst 40+ receiving yards at +350? Either Cincinnati wins, in which case they threw the ball well, or they are playing from behind and having to throw the ball anyway. Hayden Hurst will also play a major role as a safety valve for Burrow with less time to throw the ball.
Photo Courtesy of Tom Pennington/Getty ImagesSan Francisco tried to take a page out of the Chiefs’ playbook and play with Seattle a little in the first half, but after falling behind a point at the break they returned to buzzsaw form for the second half and showed everyone why they are the best team in football right now. Dallas managed one road playoff win, against a team that frankly just looked ready to be done, but I think it would be folly to expect a second in two weeks from this team. The 49ers have the defensive talent and ability to force Dak into passing situations, and offensively they have the playmakers and offensive strategy to quickly get the ball north and south to neutralize Micah Parsons’ ability to impact the game. This is the game I feel the best about this weekend, which probably means it will be the miss.
Playoff Record: 4-2
Playoff Prop Record: 1-2
Cover Photo Courtesy of Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
My apologies for taking the last week of the regular season off last week. In the wake of the Damar Hamlin situation, and admittedly with an overwhelming work schedule, I felt like the right thing to do was to take a break, even though it meant swallowing a losing record for the regular season. I’m glad that Damar is recovering and by the reports from the medical team it seems like it will, thankfully, be a full recovery. With continue thoughts his way, we turn our attention now to this weekend’s wild card games. Last year, I brought you the laws of playoff gambling as I proceeded to miss most of my playoff bets. With that and the stain of a losing regular season record, this postseason I will take a different and more humble tack, especially because I actually hate this slate of games from a gambling perspective. This week, I’m going to play devil’s advocate with myself. I will still try to be clear, but I will try to make an argument for both sides and let you decide whether to fade me or not. (Let’s be honest, you probably should fade me).
Photo Courtesy of Jennifer Buchanan/The Seattle TimesSaturday Games
49ers -9 over Seahawks
Jaguars +2.5 over Chargers
San Francisco is the hottest team in football right now. They have run roughshod through the rest of the league since Brock Purdy took over for an injured Jimmy G. Those two things are associated, but that doesn’t mean it’s causative. Purdy has been a diamond in the rough to be sure, but the success of this team is because of Demeco Ryans’s defense. Seattle, on the other hand, has an absolutely putrid defense and had to back door their way in to the playoffs after fading down the stretch. This is also the Trey Lance revenge game! But…but…what if this is the game that Brock Purdy finally looks like a rookie? What if those tight window throws are suddenly a fraction of a second too early or too late? There’s a reasonable chance that happens at some point in the playoffs, but I doubt this Seattle team is the one that can make that happen. If you’re convinced that Purdy will continue to look, sorry I know this is bad, pretty (pronounced like a Beverly Hillbilly), then can I tempt you with a little quarterback parlay? Can I talk you into Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence each to throw 2+ touchdowns at +419? Come on live a little!
Trevor Lawrence seems to be coming into his own as an NFL quarterback and catching up to the speed of the game. It’s also amazing what adequate coaching can do for a franchise. Jacksonville is playing it’s best football in two years and the Chargers never play well when they have to travel east, so this is a prime set-up for a home underdog to get a win. But…but…what if Justin Herbert and the Chargers continue to elevate their level of play and finally resemble the AFC favorite many in the media thought they should be with this talented roster? What if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams getting another week healthier catalyzes the offense into an unstoppable force of nature? I’ll still believe in the Chargers playing well in the Eastern time zone when I see it, but they do have the more talented team.
Photo Courtesy of Bill Wippert/Buffalo BillsSunday Games
Bills -13.5 over Dolphins
Vikings -3 over Giants
Ravens +8.5 over Bengals
Of all the Sunday games, the Bills blowing out the Dolphins feels like the safest bet. Tua’s season is unfortunately over, even though it’s absolutely the right call. Buffalo has rallied around Damar Hamlin and I think that will be a powerful force for a team who already had the tangible tools to make a Super Bowl run. Miami is a sinking ship for this season and their quarterback play without Tua has made them impotent, even with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. But…but…Mike McDaniel is renowned for his offensive schemes and he does still have Waddle and Hill. Josh Allen is also still playing at less than 100% and hasn’t looked like the same passer since his UCL injury. That being said, I still have a hard time picturing Miami staying in this game, which is why I need to tempt you with another special bet. Buffalo, San Francisco and Minnesota combine for 11+ touchdowns can be had for 3/2 odds currently. The Minnesota piece makes me nervous, but they might only need to contribute one or two touchdowns to push this one over the top.
Speaking of the Minnesota piece, the Vikings have been one of the most difficult teams to figure out. Are they good? Are they bad and lucky? Is Kirk Cousins a chain-wearing sorcerer? I don’t know the answer to these questions, but I do like the fact that they get to play at home and they are healthier than the Giants are. But…but…New York has been one of the surprise success stories of the season. They are well-coached and disciplined, and those two things bode well for them if they can get an early lead, which Minnesota is prone to allowing teams to do. To be honest, I actually think this line pushes and if it were any higher I would be betting on the Giants. With that, here’s one last special bet for the weekend: Any 4 of Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk to score 1+ touchdowns at +1100. Fanduel has several of these out for the weekend’s games, but this is my favorite mainly because it has two 49ers and a Bill, which are two of the teams I feel most confident in scoring several touchdowns. After that, only one of Adam Thielen or Tee Higgins needs to score to cash big.
Betting on the Ravens, especially with Lamar Jackson likely out, feels like a risky proposition and I don’t feel great about it. However, it is a pretty big line and the Ravens defense is actually playing really well. The Ravens have only given up 20+ points one time since the start of December. Cincinnati has started a few games pretty sleepily and if you combine that with a good Baltimore defense and a well-coached team, then I can talk myself into at the very least this being a one score game. But…but…Cincinnati enters the playoffs on the rise, where Baltimore definitely is not. The one time Baltimore gave up more than 20 since December was against the Bengals…last week. Maybe we get the same thing again, but then again maybe John Harbaugh pulled punches in a meaningless game.
Photo Courtesy of Cooper Neill/Getty ImagesMonday Game
Cowboys -2.5 over Bucs
This simultaneously feels like the easiest bet and the biggest sucker bet of the weekend. Tampa Bay has not been a good team, and is only in the playoffs because they play in an incompetent division. Dallas is still a supremely talented team with playmakers on both sides of the ball. This feels like it should be an easy Cowboys win and easy money to bet on them. But…but…Dallas has a really bad track record of losing playoff games they shouldn’t and of being awful on the road. Will those things bear out one more time? Truthfully, I wouldn’t be surprised but a Dallas win still feels like the more likely scenario.
Cover Photo Courtesy of The Associated Press
Brian and Sam are here to recap the playoff games, discuss playoff expansion (including Sam’s persistent crazy idea about playoffs), and talk about the upcoming national championship game. Oh yeah, and it’s the annual prop bets! Enjoy!
With Christmas in the rearview mirror, it’s time to turn our attention to some New Year’s Resolutions. If your year in gambling was anything like mine, then there is ahem plenty of room for improvement. That’s ok. That’s why we bet responsibly and help each other out. Today’s tiers will give you five of my New Year’s gambling resolutions.
CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 27: Terry McLaurin #17 of the Washington Football Team runs with the ball after a catch against Denzel Ward #21 of the Cleveland Browns during the first half in the game at FirstEnergy Stadium on September 27, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)Tier 1: Be Adaptable (Season Record: 22-22-1)
Commanders -1.5 over Browns
Vikings +3 over Packers
Bengals +1.5 over Bills
To be honest, this is just good life advice too. It may seem like good betting strategy to just bet on the best teams and against the worst teams each week, but if you look at the patterns that’s not the best way to win consistently. Kansas City, for example, is one of the best teams in football and if you want to bet the moneyline each week for a measly payoff that’s fine, but they are only 5-9 against the spread for the year. The linemakers simply try their hardest to make it prohibitive to bet on teams like the Chiefs. However, look at the four teams with double digit “wins” against the spread for the season. The one thing that Cincinnati, Detroit, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants all have in common is that they’ve exceeded expectations for a significant stretch of the season at some point. For the Giants, they came out of the gate firing and exceeding expectations. Cincinnati and Detroit overcame slow starts and began heating up midway through the season. San Francisco endured two quarterback injuries and a still unconscionable (cue the Stephen A. Smith voice) loss to the Broncos but look like the best team in football now.
Washington is another example of a team that has run the gamut of what NFL play looks like this season. At the beginning of the year, they seemed destined to lose Ron Rivera his job, however with a healthier defense and Taylor Heinicke taking over the QB1 position Washington has looked like a playoff team, for the most part. One of those main exceptions, though, was last week which has opened the door to Carson Wentz taking back the starting job. The Browns haven’t been much good for the whole year, and while Deshaun Watson should improve with each week back it seems foolish to think Cleveland will win this game. Buffalo might be better than the Bengals, but they aren’t playing better right now which makes me curious why the Bills are favored in this game. I might look back on this and feel silly, but Cincinnati is still fighting for a division title and home field in the Wild Card round and are one of the hottest teams in football. Minnesota may have already clinched the NFC North, but I can’t foresee them laying down at Lambeau this week. They are better than Green Bay and still have a shot at the top seed in the NFC and the first-round bye if Philadelphia screws up.
Photo Courtesy of Kirby Lee/USA TODAY SportsTier 2: Hammer Bad Quarterbacks (Season Record: 19-28)
Panthers +3 over Bucs
Jets -1.5 ovr Seahawks
Rams +6.5 over Chargers
This probably seems obvious, and a little mean, but it’s worth a reminder. Eight teams have a .400 or worse winning percentage against the spread this year. One of those is Kansas City (there are exceptions to every rule I guess). Two more are quarterbacked by Russell Wilson and Tom Brady, who both have looked less than their name value this year. Geno Smith and Justin Fields quarterback two of the others both of which, to be fair, have had some brilliant moments but have mostly been mediocre. The other three have started three different quarterbacks this year at least. Bad quarterback play is the most difficult thing to overcome in the NFL and the easiest thing to consistently bet against.
Wow talk about ignoring your own advice! But there’s a reason why I think each of these bets are not only defensible, but money winners. The Panthers, a team I’ve written off at least half-a-dozen times already, just seem to punch somebody in the mouth right when they seem down and out. Maybe they will lay down and look awful again this week, but Tampa Bay has been horrendous against the spread all year and doesn’t play like a team that even wants to be in the playoffs. Mike White coming back for the Jets is the only reason to bet them this week. I am a little worried about the travel west, but this team really seemed to rally around Mike White earlier in the year and I would be surprised if they didn’t do it again. The Battle for Los Angeles no longer has any playoff implications with the Chargers clinching a spot Monday night, but it has plenty of implications for Baker Mayfield’s future in the NFL. Baker perpetually seems to thrive in the back-against-the-wall role and I would be surprised if the Rams can’t keep things close.
Photo Courtesy of Bob Levey/Getty ImagesTier 3: Be Judicious With Parlays and Teasers (Season Record: 22-28-1)
Eagles -6 over Saints
Jaguars -4.5 over Texans
Chiefs -12.5 over Broncos
49ers -10 over Raiders
The sharps will tell you to always avoid parlays and teasers. This is sage advice if you are trying to make a living on this, which you probably shouldn’t do by the way, but if you are just doing this for a bit of fun then a little parlay or teaser every now and then can add to the excitement. Just don’t go crazy with it, because there’s nothing fun about burning money…unless you’re a pyromaniac or The Joker. Keep it to two or three games at most and try to look for things with reasonable, but not outrageous, returns. This gives you a decent shot to actually hit one every now and again.
Jalen Hurts might be good to go this week and the Eagles still need wins to get the wild card bye. They should be this lousy Saints team by a touchdown. Likewise, the Jaguars are now in the catbird seat for the AFC South, but they haven’t clinched. Trevor Lawrence has been playing like a man possessed and should continue that against Houston. Kansas City and San Francisco aren’t my favorite bets of the week, but I just can’t bring myself to pick the Broncos or Raiders either. Kansas City still plays with its food too much and maybe Denver will have the post-coach firing, dead cat bounce game, but I doubt it. Their problems run deeper than just poor head coaching. Las Vegas, on the other hand, will struggle to slow down the San Francisco running game and it’s hard to imagine them moving the ball consistently.
Photo Courtesy of Jon Sargent/Getty ImagesTier 4: Don’t Bet the Over (Season Record: 25-18-4)
Titans +12.5 over Cowboys
Lions -5.5 over Bears
Steelers +2.5 over Ravens
This is another page ripped out of the sharp’s gambling manifesto. This applies to both win totals and game totals. The over is a sucker’s bet. It’s like the carnival game of sports gambling. It’s set up to sucker people in because people want to watch and pull for points to be scored. This means people will rush to bet on more points being scored. You can make money by finding games you like the under (like any Broncos game other than last week) and betting those instead. Also, if you come across any sports gambling column with “best bets” that have you betting overs then throw them in the metaphorical trash, because chances are they don’t know what they are talking about.
Ryan Tannehill is done for the year and there’s a good chance Tennessee will fall out of the playoff picture all together, but Dallas tends to let these games be closer than they should. I know they blew out the Colts a few weeks back and the Vikings a few weeks before that, but they’ve also needed a late score to beat the Texans and lost to the Jaguars. I just see this being one that we keep waiting for Dallas to break it open and then before we know it the clock hits zero and they are only up by 7. Detroit had a huge letdown last week and it will very likely cost them a shot at the playoffs but expect a rebound this week. Baltimore may have beaten Atlanta this week, but they have a long way to go to earn my trust back. Atlanta is completely lost offensively. Pittsburgh may not be much better but Kenny Pickett has had his moments and has at least shown some ability to find the end zone.
Photo Courtesy of Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY SportsTier 5: Don’t Bet on College Football (Season Record: 29-18-2)
Falcons -3 over Cardinals
Dolphins +3 over Patriots
Giants -5.5 over Colts
If overs are the carnival games of sports gambling, then college football is goofy golf. The transfer portal and NIL deals have made forecasting college football even more difficult than predicting the week-to-week consistency of teenagers and twenty-year-olds was in the first place. Maybe I’m just saying this because I have had a truly awful year picking college football games, but I think college football gambling will be a major money loser for the foreseeable future. It was already one of the most difficult sports to make money gambling, but now it just feels like playing rock-paper-scissors blindfolded.
Your guess about Indianapolis’s quarterback situation is as good as mine, but I’m not sure it really matters. New York might be playing with one-arm tied behind its back with all of the poor injury luck, but they are still a touchdown-plus better than the Colts. Stay away from the other two games. I have no idea what to make of the Atlanta-Arizona or Miami-New England games, but I feel confident that both games will be poorly played and unsatisfying to watch. They aren’t worth your time or money.
Last Week’s Record: 6-9-1
Season Record: 117-115-8
Christmas week is upon us. If you’re anything like me, then your usual M.O. is probably to save up all that Christmas shopping for right about now, but this year the calendar dropped a true Holiday Sports Spectacular right in our laps with NFL football on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to complement the usual Christmas Eve bowl game followed by Christmas Day NBA basketball. As a chronic procrastinator, I urge you to get your stuff done so that you can strap in for a wild sports holiday ride. There are so many things that make the Christmas season special, but one of them is the sitting down to rewatch all those holiday favorite films that you’ve seen a blue million times already but still get just as much enjoyment out of them today as you did the first time. In honor of that time-honored tradition, I’ll be ranking the top five Christmas movies with this week’s tiers. Before we start a disclaimer, the old holiday specials are some of my absolute favorite holiday viewing, but to my mind they occupy a separate category and so have been omitted. Don’t come at me when you don’t see Rudolph or The Grinch (original not Jim Carrey) or Charlie Brown Christmas, maybe we’ll do those next year.
Tier 1: National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation (Season Record: 20-21-1)
Jaguars +1 over Jets
Bengals -3.5 over Patriots
Dolphins -4.5 over Packers
The most adult film to grace this list, National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation, also known as simply “Christmas Vacation”, is a holiday masterpiece and the best movie of the National Lampoon’s entire catalog. At its surface, Christmas Vacation looks like a family man trying to give his family a warm and cozy gathering for the holiday, but then the movie takes us on a raucous romp through holiday shopping and cooky relatives (shouts Cousin Eddie and Aunt Bethany) and snow sledding and the unraveling of a Christmas Eve dinner. Apart from laughing at the one-liners of Bethany and Eddy and the slapstick torment of the Griswold’s insufferable neighbors (seriously who drinks margaritas on Christmas Eve?), we have a man with a truly horrible financial plan. Who in their right mind would kite a check that their banking on a Christmas bonus to come through to cover to pay for a down payment on a pool? It’s not like he’s breaking the bank to feed his kids or give them one or two presents. He’s committing a crime just to fund a pool. Here’s the natural follow-up question: if Clark Griswold can’t afford a down payment on a pool, how is he paying for that massive house in Chicago? How many mortgages you got on that thing Clark? Financial blunders aside, this film would consistently put a stitch in your side and Clark’s rapid descent into madness on Christmas Eve is one of the best 15 minutes in Christmas movie history.
The only rationale for the Jets being a slight favorite on Thursday night, when we open this NFL weekend bonanza, is that early bettors either a) can’t resist betting the home team b) aren’t aware that Mike White isn’t playing and/or c) stopped watching football five weeks ago. Trevor Lawrence has Jacksonville on a tear and the Jets best football is behind them. In a similar vein, I can’t imagine anyone who’s watched Cincinnati or New England play in the last month would pick the Patriots in this game. The Bengals are surging at the right time and New England, fresh off one of the most gut-wrenching losses imaginable, are just trying to finish the season. Miami may have lost to Buffalo last week, but they were competitive in an adverse climate. This week they get to go back home to warm and cozy Miami to take on a Packers team that still isn’t any good.
Tier 2: A Christmas Story (Season Record: 17-27)
Chiefs -9.5 over Seahawks
Lions -2.5 over Panthers
Chargers -4 over Colts
A Christmas Story is iconic due to its combination of nostalgia, quirky humor, and an absolute master class in narrative storytelling. The cinematography expertly transports us back to a different era in American history, but the storytelling reframes even the most adult viewer back into the childhood psyche around Christmas in a way that could never be duplicated. The imagination bubbles of the teacher turning into the wicked witch and gunning down “Black Bart” with the Red Ryder or going blind from being forced to eat soap are still relatable in my 30s.
Kansas City still plays with its food more than I care for, hence dropping them a tier, but Seattle’s best football may be in the rearview mirror and their defense is atrocious. Detroit has the benefit of being both hot as a pistol and in dire need of wins every week. That makes them a good bet against a team that they are much better than. Carolina just needs to try to secure the best draft position they can with needing to replace Christian McCaffrey and finding an adequate quarterback on their offseason agenda. Indianapolis just became the first team to blow a 33-point lead and lose in an NFL game. Any momentum they had to play spoiler down the stretch has to be completely gone now, right? The Chargers have a nasty tendency to let inferior teams hang around, but they are still in a seed battle and Justin Herbert finally seems fully healthy and has his full complement of receivers and running backs.
Tier 3: Home Alone (Season Record: 21-25-1)
Titans -5 over Texans
Falcons +7.5 over Ravens
Broncos -2.5 over Rams
49ers -7 over Commanders
Home Alone can arguably viewed as the child’s counterpart to Christmas Vacation. Full of inexplicable parenting decisions, it’s an expert blend of slapstick comedy superimposed upon a family unification, or in this case reunification, theme. Also, can we talk for a second about the brilliance of Kevin McCallister’s anti-theft deterrent set-up? He needles Harry and Marv in perfect, almost personal, ways, despite only having seen these clowns in passing a time or two before the big finale. For example, he knew that the one of them that came through the window would be the same burglar who attempted the tar stairs, otherwise stepping on Christmas ornaments in shoes, while annoying, doesn’t slow down the burglar. The comedy pinnacle of the movie is Joe Pesci’s full mouth scream while his head gets blowtorched. It still makes me cackle like a hyena, and always will.
Tennessee just seems to be trying to white knuckle it into the playoffs at this point, but the Texans are still the Texans, despite threatening to beat playoff teams in back-to-back weeks. Eventually, Houston will just fold and accept their place at the top of the draft board, and this seems likely to be the week it happens. The Titans really need this game and are the better team. I can only assume Baltimore is favored by more than a touchdown on the pretense that Lamar Jackson will be playing quarterback this week, but he didn’t practice yesterday and without him is Baltimore even capable of scoring 7.5 points in a game? Even if Lamar plays, he will be less than 100% and the Falcons at least have a reasonable run game. Denver really won the schedule lottery down the stretch it seems like. This trash team might cobble together a respectable record just by nature of playing impotent offense for weeks on end. The defense is still good enough to win games against teams who can’t score. My first draft of this column had the Commanders covering this game, mostly because I felt like their defense was good enough to keep the game close, but San Francisco is laying waste to everything in its path right now. I’m not betting against them.
Tier 4: The Muppet Christmas Carol (Season Record: 25-15-4)
Bears +9.5 over Bills
Vikings -3.5 over Giants
Eagles +4.5 over Cowboys
I am, admittedly, a bigger Charles Dickens fan than most people of my generation. A Tale of Two Cities is my favorite novel, and pretty much any version of A Christmas Carol will always make my watch list. The Muppet version is a childhood relatable for me due to its early 90s release date. Also, Michael Caine with an absolute masterful performance as Ebenezer Scrooge! This performance probably doesn’t get considered one of his top all-time performances, but the man berated puppets with a straight face for a solid hour. If that isn’t great acting, then I’m not sure what is.
Chicago has been covering these kinds of lines all year, and Buffalo has not been covering these lines all year. I don’t have any reason to believe that stops this week. Buffalo would love to try to keep that first-round bye, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win comfortably either. Minnesota is either destined to flame out in the first round or string together a few improbable playoff wins and wild comebacks en route to a Super Bowl appearance. I see no other alternatives. Betting on them scares me, but the Giants roster is so depleted at this point and Saquon Barkley can only do so much. Jalen Hurts probably shouldn’t play this weekend, but regardless of if he does or doesn’t, I’m not entirely sure why Dallas is favored by this much. Dallas, aside from blowing out the Vikings in Week 11, hasn’t looked like a team that has it this year and Philadelphia does. I think the Eagles defense can at least make a few plays, and this game will be close.
Tier 5: White Christmas (Season Record: 28-17-1)
Browns -2.5 over Saints
Steelers -3 over Raiders
Cardinals +6.5 over Bucs
What a classic! Bing Crosby and Rosemary Clooney (George’s aunt) pair together wonderfully in this musical sing-along classic. There are a few lines from the movie that don’t age particularly well, as with most films from this era, but in general, this is just an entertaining film. Also, for those that don’t know, Clark Griswold’s “ha-ha-happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny f***ing Kaye” line is a reference to this movie.
Betting on the Browns, Steelers or Cardinals gives me unpleasant sensations in the pit of my stomach, but the alternatives are slightly less palatable. The Saints are a bad team with not much direction. Kenny Pickett should return to the helm this week and his mobility will be important against a Las Vegas team that’s only attribute, aside from Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, is its pass rush. Tampa Bay just seems to be in freefall at this point and it’s hard to imagine them beating anyone by a touchdown, even a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals team.
Last Week: 9-6-1
Season Record: 111-106-7
Cover Photo Courtesy of Joel Auerback/Getty Images
Brian and Sam are back to take a look at the pre-New Year’s bowl games, discuss the playoff selection, the somehow still alive Rice bet and as always some healthy self-deprecation. Enjoy!
It’s become an unwritten rule of social etiquette that no one wants to hear about your fantasy team. As a self-professed huge sports nerd, I will say that I mind hearing about people’s fantasy team less than most, but it still tracks. Fortunately for you, as an homage to the start of the fantasy football playoffs, I’ve dedicated this week’s tiers to the five kinds of fantasy football teams so I’ll talk about your team (indirectly at least) so you don’t have to. Good luck to everyone in the fantasy football playoffs. For those in the consolation bracket, we’ve all been there and better luck next year.
Photo Courtesy of Tim Heitman/USA TODAY SportsTier 1: The First Round Bye (Season Record: 18-20-1)
Bengals -3.5 over Bucs
Cowboys -4.5 over Jaguars
Raiders -1 over Patriots
Congratulations to all of you who get to sit on your hands and dispassionately watch the NFL this weekend! You probably had a stellar draft and at least put in some work to managing your team throughout the season, either that or you play with a bunch of incompetent bozos. I do need to pour some cold water on your parade though. You should be fully aware that you will have your best week of the season this week, immediately followed by your worst week of the season next week. This is the law of fantasy football playoff bye as old and as true as the sky.
Cincinnati survived a slow start to comfortably cover against the Browns this week and Tampa Bay’s free fall continues. The only hesitation here is that it might feel too much like a no-brainer. On the other hand, Jacksonville has the hot hand coming off of a thrashing of division rival Tennessee, while Dallas needed a late drive to squeak out a win over the worst team in the NFL. Seems like a prime time to roll with the Jaguars right? Don’t be fooled. The five seed in the NFC is significantly more appealing than the six and Dallas will be trying to snatch every win they can to hold onto that five spot. I hate betting on this Raiders team, but the Patriots just seem lost and with Rhamondre Stevenson hurt they can’t even run the ball anymore. This will probably be a complete eyesore, but maybe an opportunity to make some money.
Photo Courtesy of Dean Rutz/The Seattle TimesTier 2: The Team No One Wants to Play (Season Record: 14-27)
49ers -3 over Seahawks
Dolphins +7 over Bills
Lions -1 over Jets
At face value, this might seem like it should be the first tier, but stratifying based on regular season finish this team lands here. If you’re in any semi-competitive fantasy league you know exactly who I’m talking about. This team is probably the four- or five-seed in the playoffs, but are entering the playoffs on a four-game winning streak and picked up Jamaal Williams or Kenneth Walker (or both) off waivers earlier in the season. This is probably the guy or girl who is always in the playoffs and always finds ways to win or pick-up Evan Engram as a plug and play tight end for a week that he scores three touchdowns. This is the ultimate reminder that it’s not how you finish the regular season, but it’s what you do in the playoffs that gets remembered.
San Francisco is the real life version of the TNOWTP. They traded for Christian McCaffrey midway through the season (probably gets vetoed in a fantasy league) and have weathered injuries to two quarterbacks and Trent Williams, but the defense and offensive skill players are so good that it doesn’t seem like it really matters. It just feels really difficult to consider betting against them at the moment. Also, Seattle’s defense is terrible, so if you want a special bet then sprinkle some money on Christian McCaffrey 100+ scrimmage yards, 1+ rushing touchdown and 1+ receiving touchdown at a nice 10/1 odds. The Bills were supposed to be this year’s TNOWTP, but they just haven’t been able to reach the height of last year’s playoff spectacular with the Chiefs and the lingering injury to Josh Allen has really hindered the offense. Miami hasn’t looked great either recently, but they should keep this within a touchdown. Detroit is the classic fantasy team that looks like crap early in the season and then it just starts clicking after some minor tweaks. They have been rolling and are a last-second Tyler Bass field goal away from being undefeated since the beginning of October. The Jets quarterback situation also seems like a disaster, especially if Mike White is limited as expected. Tennessee laid a huge egg last week, but Derrick Henry looked like himself in the first half and I will trust the Chargers to have two consecutive good weeks when I see it.
Photo Courtesy of Denny Medley/USA TODAY SportsTier 3: The Playoff Backdoor aka “The Fading Star” (Season Record: 21-23)
Titans +3 over Chargers
Vikings -4.5 over Colts
Chiefs -14 over Texans
If your fantasy team fits into this category, then I empathize with you. This is most commonly where my own fantasy teams fall by this time of year. You probably had a great draft! Things looked hopeful! But then Cooper Kupp or Javonte Williams went down and you realized that your bench wasn’t quite as deep as it looked before bye weeks and week-to-week injuries started taking effect. You limped to .500 and snagged a playoff spot out of sheer pride, but now you are just ready to be put out of your misery…unless…unless you’ve conjured up some late season waiver magic and hope springs anew. Don’t go getting your heart ripped out though, there’s always next year.
Tennessee laid a huge egg last week, but Derrick Henry looked like himself in the first half and I will trust the Chargers to have two consecutive good weeks when I see it. Minnesota has finally started to show some cracks in the armor with a loss to the Lions, who are admittedly red hot, last week, but this Colts team is abysmal and Minnesota will be really trying to hold off San Francisco for the two seed. Go ahead and put a few units down on Justin Jefferson 200+ receiving yards too at 32/1. Kansas City could beat Houston by as many points as they wanted to, but they have this bad habit of playing with their food before they eat it. I will still probably bet on them but it will be infuriating when they show no urgency with 12:47 left in a 10-point game.
Photo Courtesy of Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesTier 4: Just a Bit Outside (Season Record: 23-14-4)
Giants +4.5 over Commanders
Ravens +2.5 over Browns
Bears +9 over Eagles
Shout out to Harry Doyle for the iconic line that aptly names this tier. This is for all of you who just missed your fantasy playoffs. You probably suffered a gut-wrenching loss last week and then realized your Week 4 loss to that guy in your office who thinks his star quarterback is Adam Rodgers and drafted two kickers just cost you the tiebreaker. We’ll pour one out for you, but also let me give you some advice. Don’t track the point totals through the playoffs. Don’t do it. Because there is a 79% chance that you are about to go on a tear that would have won you the title if you had only scraped out one more regular season win.
The Giants roster is depleted, but no less so than two weeks ago when they managed to tie the Commanders. Why can’t they keep this close again? Baltimore always has a lot of pride on the line against the Browns, but they can also feel the Bengals breathing down their neck for the AFC North. Saying Deshaun Watson has looked rusty is an understatement. Saying you aren’t sure he’s a better bet than Tyler Huntley is probably closer to the mark. Philadelphia doesn’t want to get complacent, but they only need to win games at this point. They will look to win comfortably and keep people healthy at the same time and with Justin Fields back running around expect Chicago to at least make the final look respectable. Also, what’s the record for combined quarterback rushing yards in a game? There just might be a new one after this game. Can I tempt you with a “Jalen Hurts 50+ rushing yards and Miles Sanders 100+ rushing yards” at 8/1?
Photo Courtesy of Dale Zanine/USA TODAY SportsTier 5: What Week Did You Stop Checking Your Lineup? (Season Record: 26-15-1)
Broncos -2.5 over Cardinals
Panthers -2.5 over Steelers
Falcons +4.5 over Saints
Rams +6.5 over Packers
No shame or judgment here. We have all had seasons that weren’t ours. Hopefully you had enough pride and thought for the integrity of the league to stick it out and field a playable roster, but if you decided to just hang it up and try again next year then no judgment from me. Some years it’s just not in the cards.
The fact that I’m picking the Broncos and Panthers as favorites this week makes me want to vomit, but quarterback uncertainty with Arizona and Pittsburgh makes it impossible for me to pick either of them. Denver’s defense is still good enough to stifle a bad Cardinals offense and we saw how bad Pittsburgh’s offense can be last week. Perhaps if I had seen Desmond Ridder throw an NFL pass I’d feel the same, but since he hasn’t I’m intrigued. I also think Atlanta can run the ball reasonably and they seem to always find ways to play New Orleans well. Baker Mayfield conjured up a miracle win last Thursday without knowing the Rams playbook and I don’t necessarily expect that to happen again, but did a week off make us all forget that Green Bay is bad too? This pick might make me look stupid, and I initially had Green Bay but then I thought about the last few times I saw the Packers and I just can’t rely on them to win a game by a touchdown or more.
Last Week: 6-7
Season Record: 102-100-6
Prop Record: 4-9
With a busy week of night shifts this week, all I have time to do is give you the picks. However, because I like to give you some justification and have a pathological need to explain myself, you do get a nice little one line explanation. Since the one-liner is a great comedic art will do tiers this week based on some classic comedians.
Tier 1: George Carlin (Season Record- 15-20-1)
Jets +10 over Bills- Please explain to me what in the last month of play suggests the Bills should beat the Jets by double digits…other than the possible Zach Wilson sabotage.
Eagles -7 over Giants- I’m always wrong on the Eagles so maybe this is a bad idea, but the Giants roster is so depleted.
Bengals -5.5 over Browns- Don’t be afraid of the Vegas zone. The Bengals are rolling. That was two lines…sorry.
Tier 2: Eddie Murphy (Season Record- 14-25)
Vikings +1.5 over Lions- The Vikings have won twice as many games as the Lions…and it’s Week 14, not Week 4.
Titans -3.5 over Jaguars- Bounceback game for Tennessee.
Tier 3: Mitch Hedberg (Season Record- 21-20)
Cowboys -17.5 over Texans- Houston’s awful
Chiefs -9.5 over Broncos- Denver’s also awful
Dolphins -3 over Chargers- Slightly concerned about Miami going cross-country, but it’s a night game and the Chargers seem lost.
Tier 4: Richard Pryor (Season Record- 20-14-4)
Rams +6.5 over Raiders- (Disclaimer: I bet this last night you can text me for the betslip). Did we forget that Las Vegas sucks?
49ers -3.5 over Bucs- I know it’s Brock Purdy against Tom Brady, but San Fran’s defense is easily worth a touchdown over this stinky Tampa Bay team.
Patriots -1.5 over Cardinals- Bill Belichick or Kliff Kingsbury…who would you pick?
Tier 5: Dane Cook….jk Dave Chappelle (Season Record- 26-13-1)
Steelers -1.5 over Ravens- No Lamar and Baltimore’s offense was bad with him.
Seahawks -4 over Panthers- Seattle is fading down the stretch, but Carolina has been at rock bottom
Last Week’s Record: 9-6
Season Record: 96-93-6
Cover Photo Courtesy of George Walker IV/Tennessean.com/USA TODAY Sports
Brian and Sam are back to discuss the major coaching hire news and to give picks for conference championship week that will almost certainly be wrong. Enjoy!
It’s post-Thanksgiving food coma week! For today’s tiers, we will be power ranking the levels of post-feast nap time. This week has some great games and some tough gambling lines, but there are some opportunities here too. The playoffs picture is starting to take shape, as is the race to the number one overall pick, […]
Thanksgiving week is upon us and that can only mean offering up gratitude and well-measured gluttony…of both food and football. Every year this column will devote itself to food-based tiers in honor of this cheerfully overindulgent occasion. This year our tiers will be dedicated to the best sweet treats to cap off the best meal […]
Brian and Sam are here for a Thanksgiving week pod full of yummy food discussions and yummy rivalry week matchups. Enjoy!
Sam makes a big Rice rice bet this week, plus Sam and Brian discuss college football playoff scenarios. Picks for the weekend also included. As a reminder, quit betting on college football! Enjoy!
In honor of my last shifts working in the emergency department (probably ever) and because I haven’t had adequate time to write a full piece, this week we are going to do the ER triage version of NFL picks. For those that may not know, we typically triage patients in the emergency department on a […]
Brian and Sam are back this week to discuss why everyone seemed to sleep on the Georgia Bulldogs and cover Week 11 picks (fade them all). Enjoy!
Week Ten is upon us and we are driving right up against the midseason grind, but this is the time where we stay focused and continue to try to throw away less money than we did in the previous weeks. Last week, I felt a little perplexed by the lines but still managed to squeeze […]
Brian and Sam are here to take a brief look at the first playoff committee rankings and what they mean (or don’t mean). Also, as always, some picks that we may or may not fully endorse for the weekend. Enjoy!
It’s hard to believe we are already to the halfway point of the NFL regular season. As the great Ferris Bueller once said, “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while…you might miss it.” You would think with the season progressing the way it is (and not to […]
Sam and Brian are back for another week and the college football season is just about to get spicy. Enjoy!
Sweet, sweet victory! After six weeks of being a loser, I finally eked out a winning record last week, and did it just in time for Halloween. In honor of Halloween (and my sweet victory), this week’s tiers will be ranked by the kinds of candy you might be in preparation for treating all the […]
Sam and Brian exhaustively breakdown last weekend’s Alabama-Tennessee banger. Plus, week 8 picks coming up. Enjoy!
My apologies for a very concise picks column for the week, hence the title “skinny post” which is one of my better double entendres if I can toot my own horn on that. Also, you get a nice cover photo of Randy Moss in his prime who is a) my favorite receiver ever b) was […]
The college football regular season is essentially halfway over now and the race to the playoff is “on”. Last week saw a few more teams fall from the ranks of the unbeaten and now there are only a handful of teams that control their own destiny. With today’s “Playoff Picture”, we will take a look […]
“When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide and I turn and I go for a ride.” After a strong regular season last year, I really hope I’ve made it to the bottom of the slide with five consecutive losing weeks to open the season. Sometimes when things […]
Brian and Sam are back to discuss all the major action for the weekend including: Alabama vs. Tennessee, Penn State vs. Michigan, USC vs. Utah and…the Owl Battle, Florida Atlantic vs. Rice. Enjoy!
Brian and Sam are back this week with some random thoughts on the season to date. Sam quadruples down on his Rice slander. And the boys give their thoughts on this week’s action, a week where they are surprisingly aligned in their views. Enjoy!
Full disclosure: Yet another busy week of inpatient medicine for me, so we are going with a two-minute drill again this week. Tier titles this week an homage to things you might here during a two-minute drill. Also, I know the season record isn’t great, but the breakthrough is coming…I think. Tier 1: Hot Route […]
Full Disclosure: It’s been a busy week of service at work for me. As a result, this week will have to be the “Chris Berman” version of NFL picks. Next week, I plan to return with some, hopefully, more articulate reasons for my picks. All the same, enjoy! Tier 1: Rumblin’ (Season Record: 4-5) Chiefs […]
Full Disclosure: With a busy week on service, this is going to be a quick, but hopefully not dirty, version of the Playoff Picture. In honor of the patron saint of Game Day, I give you “Corso style.” Peach Bowl (#1 vs. #4)- Georgia vs. Clemson Down week for Georgia last week, but they are […]
Brian and Sam look back at a bizarre weekend of NFL and college football. Then, they look forward what should be an equally eventful weekend. Enjoy!
This week Sam and Brian give out some big “Hell Yeahs!” to a few surprising 3-0 starts on the year followed by some week 4 picks. Sam and Brian have a few substantial disagreements about some of this week’s games. Enjoy!
“There is nothing new under the sun.” This concept is the nemesis of all types of creative endeavor. In the Internet Age, creativity has become even more challenging because not only is nothing new, but now everything is cataloged permanently in an easily accessible way. Despite this, I try to bring you something fresh and […]
The passage of time has an odd way of magnifying certain pieces of popular culture while diminishing others. At the turn of the century, “Who let the dogs out?” was the second most asked question in American vernacular. (The first was, “What’s up?” or more colloquially “Wazzzzzzuuuuupp?”) The Baha Men, the last true one-hit wonder, […]
Six and ten! Six and ten!!! After a winning record last year, despite a weak playoff showing, I kick off the 2022 campaign by handing in a mediocre six and ten performance. That might be good enough to finish second in the AFC South or NFC East, but we are here to make some noise […]
Brian and Sam are back for a quick pod this week with Brian on a business trip to the Golden State. Also, Week 3 doesn’t figure to hold a ton of big matchups or drama…cue all the upsets. Enjoy!
Survive and advance. We usually associate the phrase with March Madness, but it broadly applies to the college football season too. With so many teams competing for so few playoff spots, the margin for error is razor thin for everyone entering the season. For some, it starts at zero. The “haves” can afford to drop […]
A renowned poet once said, “Turn up the music, turn down the lights…It’s about damn time.” After a long, hot summer, it’s about damn time for some NFL football and that age old tradition of cheering on fantasy teams, juggling eight different 1:00 P.M. games and sweating out a few backdoor covers. There’s something uniquely […]
After a teaser of an opening week last Saturday, the season opens in full force starting tomorrow night! Want to know how all the week 1 matchups to shake out? Which games are ripe for making some money? When will Nebraska start its coaching search? The answers to all that and more are right here. […]
Now that we’ve complete previews for each conference (plus independents), it’s time to tackle some New Year’s Six and Playoff Predictions. It’s also time to talk about some real football games! What’s gonna happen in Dublin? What about the banger in Honolulu on Saturday night? Enjoy!
The moment most of you have probably been waiting for. Will Georgia repeat as champion? Will Alabama return to the top of the college football world? Can anyone stand between an Alabama and Georgia SEC title game? Will Bryan Harsin survive year two on “The Plains”? Enjoy!
Time to turn our attention to Brian’s conference. Can Scott Frost save his job? Can Michigan keep their hold on the balance of power? Will Ohio State return to the top of the heap? Who will win the topsy turvy West? Enjoy!
The Pac 12 is another conference in flux, but the only major change for the 2022 season is the lack of divisions, which Sam completely missed in his prep. Will the new-look USC live up to colossal expectations? Can Utah repeat? What about Oregon with former Auburn QB Bo Nix at the helm? Enjoy!
The Big XII may be rapidly changing as we know it in the coming years, but today’s focus is on the hear and now. Oklahoma had a massive shake-up in the offseason with the sudden departure of Lincoln Riley and several star players. They are also not the defending conference champion for the first time […]
Now for the big boys, as some might say. Will Clemson return to the top of the ACC heap or will another surprise contender emerge? Mama called for Mario Cristobal can he bring the Canes back to glory? All that and more in this year’s ACC preview. Enjoy!
Still think Boise State is the only team in this conference worth talking about? Think again! Fresno State is back with a vengeance. Colorado State is on the rise. San Diego State may have lost the “Punt God” but they still have a tenacious defense. Oh, and Air Force could be set up for its […]
Sam’s hot take of the offseason: the Sun Belt is the best Group of 5 conference! Grayson McCall is back for Coastal. Appalachian State is still Appalachian State. Marshall may have changed conferences but the still bring a high level of play. Billy Napier and Levi Lewis may have moved on, but Louisiana is still […]
Mac-tion is back!!! The MAC may not have produced a New Year’s Six team since P.J. Fleck’s Western Michigan days, but if you want a competitive, parity-filled conference (admittedly too often a rarity in this sport) then the MAC may be just what you’re looking for. Enjoy!
After a few week hiatus, Brian and I are back with a nice little podcast dump for you guys. First up, we will cover the C-USA. Warning: Rice fans may find this podcast harsh. Enjoy!
Cincinnati smashed through one of college football’s glass ceilings last year earning the first playoff berth in Group of Five history. What can they do for an encore? Houston seemed to right the ship under Dana Holgorsen last year. Next stop conference title? Gus Malzahn’s first season in Orlando ended on a high note after […]
WE ARE BAAAAAAAAAACK!!!!!! July 4th has come and gone and that can only mean one thing: it’s time to start looking ahead to the college football season. Brian and Sam are back to break things down conference by conference. We’ll kick things off here by talking about the seven teams who aren’t in a conference. […]
Remember at the beginning of all this where I told you this was all probably folly? Or maybe this is your first time reading? Or maybe last week for my big letdown? Anyway, there’s very little chance I know what I’m talking about, but if you need some talking points for your prop bet picks […]
After a 1-3 performance in a bonkers division round, we need to turn to something a little stronger than rules. As a wise individual once said, “In America we have laws. Laws against killing. Laws against stealing. It’s accepted that, as a member of society, you will live by these laws. In West Canaan, Texas, […]
Sometimes you have a really elaborate idea to have a gambling rule applicable to every playoff game. Sometimes your best laid plans don’t work out because you are working night shift and you invite friends over for the game and plan a big barbecue and don’t leave yourself enough time to write a weekly column. […]
In the generational war, there’s a compulsion for witty, slightly pejorative, nicknames to be thrown around, you know, because “Millennials” and “Boomers” isn’t witty enough apparently. The “Boomerang” generation. (Because adult Millennials bounce back to their Boomer parents’ houses). The “Internet” generation. (Because we never knew life without it). “Generation Now”. (Clever shot at the […]
Brian and Sam are back with the best pod of the year: championship prop bets! Guide to all your national championship viewing needs and desires. Enjoy!
“Are we there yet?” (Asked in the tone of an eight-year-old with a full bladder on a cross-country road trip.) “Almost son.” (Answered in the tone of an increasingly impatient father with an equally full bladder and a hip cramp from the last 600 miles of driving.) The last week of the long and arduous […]
Brian and Sam are back for a special New Year’s playoff edition of the podcast. Tune in for a quick look at all the New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day college football action. Enjoy!
“The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” When you mix the decision making of Roger Goodell with a global pandemic, you can up the odds from “often” to “always”. We’re in our third week now of having to cautiously wait until the last second to safely throw in our wagers because […]
This might be a Millennial take, but the 90s was a golden age for toys. Video games came into their own. NASA had mastered going to the moon and started turning over some of their cutting-edge technology to the toy industry. The toy industry also developed the ability to seamlessly incorporate lights and batteries into […]
Brian and Sam back with a quick look at the bowl games from December 27-December 30. Enjoy!