StratNews Global: Recent Episodes
Stratnews Global
Strategic Affairs is our game. South Asia and beyond is our playground. We track international developments. Our Founder Nitin Gokhale and Editor Surya Gangadharan explain what StratNewsGlobal stands for.
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A lot of lessons from the Ukraine, Gaza wars, and the Ladakh standoff with China. In an interview with Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhuri, the Chief of Air Staff (CAS) dwells on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, the changing nature of war, and why the Indian Air Force will always be the first offensive choice in any conflict.
In this interview, the Air Chief lists the key takeaways from the conflict in the Himalayan frontier and wars in distant lands. Talking about lessons drawn from the standoff with China in Eastern Ladakh, the CAS highlighted leadership, ability to adapt, and training among other factors that the IAF has inculcated. The Ladakh experience has also boosted jointness.
According to the CAS, common platforms, and common systems will have common maintenance. Complete interoperability between the Army and the IAF.
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The Indian Army's Southern Command is not just the biggest but also the oldest Command of the force. It covers 41% of the Indian landmass, 11 States, and four Union Territories. The Command hosts a large number of training establishments too. In a way, Southern Command is the Indian Army's training hub.
In an interview with Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, Southern Army Commander Lt Gen AK Singh speaks about how troops under him prepare for all contingencies, knowing fully well that there are no runners-up in war.
As he says, the Army must be fully prepared to take on conventional challenges, even while absorbing technology to fight in all domains. Tri-services exercises are run based on plans evolved jointly by all three services, as was done recently. In one of the largest exercises ever, equipment failure was rare, a very heartening situation, Lt Gen Singh pointed out. Watch the full interview conducted at the Army War Memorial in Pune at the Southern Command Headquarters.
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The Russia-Ukraine war refuses to wind down, and the West keeps imposing sanctions on Russia-linked entities but human tragedy is piling up. Over a third of Ukraine’s population has fled their homes, reconstruction is getting costlier and the aftereffects of the conflict may last generations. So how does one assess the conflict as it stands today?
One way is to map the first three months of the war with the three months that led into the second anniversary, says eminent journalist, author and commentator MJ Akbar.
Speaking to StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale on ‘The Gist’, Akbar said the world needs to factor in the fact that Russia has the capacity to defend its strategic interests and that the Cold War hasn’t stopped.
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The World Bank recently released its annual tracker on global remittances for 2023. It showed that globally remittances at $669 billion grew higher than forecast. India, like always, was the top recipient with $125 billon—accounting for little under fifth of the global remittances in 2023.
According to the World Bank, a distinctive feature of remittances to India is the shift away from blue-collar workers to white-collar workers based in Europe, Australia and the United States.
To unpack this trend, Anil Padmanabhan spoke with Rituparna Chakraborty, co-founder of TeamLease.
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Iran is more sinned against than sinning, is the message from Seyed Mohammad Marandi, professor at Tehran University and a political commentator.
Marandi gave a bird’s eye view of how Tehran sees the regional situation at a time when the US has carried out air strikes on armed groups in Syria believed to be loyal to Iran. The US classifies these groups, from Hamas to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen as terrorist but Marandi disagrees. In his view, the real terrorist groups are Al Qaeda and its off shoot the Islamic State, both of which are Western creations.
He claims the US military presence at Al Tanf in Syria is intended to help the Islamic State simply because it is a useful tool against Iran. Marandi says Israel along with the West is carrying out genocide in Gaza and insists that its withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territories is the only way for peace in the region.
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India and Australia already share a robust defence relationship but that can be deepened, says Philip Green, Australian High Commissioner to India.
We are not only looking for interoperability between the many platforms that we share but we could hope to go beyond interoperability, to interchangeability, the envoy told StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.
He also advocated a new level of intimacy: “more Australian servicemen working on and with Indian platforms and Indian defence personnel in our headquarters”.
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Nobody is speculating on the next meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Emmanuel Macron, but with six meetings last year alone, there is clearly a lot going on in the India-France relationship, says Arun Kumar Singh, former ambassador to France.
Ambassador Singh was on The Gist, talking about President Macron’s recent visit and the many takeaways, from a defence industrial roadmap to cooperation in space, and technology transfers in key areas that could well be unprecedented.
In that sense, France is a useful partner, providing steadfast diplomatic support in international bodies while also being rock solid in its strategic relationship with India. Paris also helps India leverage its relationship with the US, helping Delhi ensure balance.
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A “dangerous separatist”, as China calls William Lai, will be Taiwan’s next president, which means the arsenal that Beijing deployed, including military exercises and propaganda, failed to make a difference.
There is a growing body of people in Taiwan who now feel that they have a separate identity which is not identical to that of the mainland, says former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale. “Today you have a position in which China has no option but to deal with its worst case scenario for the next four years, at least in political terms,” he told StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.
In the interview, Vijay Gokhale also talks about his latest book ‘Crosswinds: Nehru, Zhou and the Anglo-American Competition over China’ that offers insights into Indian foreign policy in the first decade after Independence and why India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, did what he did when it came to dealing with China and the United States.
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The armed exchange between Iran and Pakistan targeting their respective halves of Balochistan was sudden and unexpected. But it is not that they haven’t clashed before in that region, says Tilak Devasher, author of a book on Balochistan and former special director Cabinet Secretariat.
Devasher says the Pakistanis have been backing the Sunni militant group Jaish-e-Adl formerly Jundullah for many years. It has killed and abducted many Iranian border policemen forcing the latter to respond with their own brand of violence. Could the clashes be the result of the US and Saudis egging on Pakistan against Iran?
It cannot be ruled out although the speed with which hostilities ended underscored that neither side saw any purpose in escalation. But it has also emphasised that the longer the Gaza War continues, the greater the risk of it spilling over into new areas. Lebanon is already a flashpoint given Hezbollah provocations against Israel; the Houthis are another.
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India’s premier defence research body — the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) — which was set up over 60 years ago needs to change the way it operates. That’s what a committee headed by K. VijayRaghavan, former principal scientific advisor to the government, has recommended.
So what is wrong with DRDO and what changes has the committee recommended? StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale explains.
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William Lai’s election as the next Taiwanese president has not gone down well with China which has said he doesn’t represent the choice of the masses. So what does it mean for China-Taiwan relations that are already under considerable strain?
China will continue its policy of harassment against Taiwan; coercion and intimidation will be the norm and could be a little bit more intensive, I-Chung Lai, President of Prospect Foundation, a Taiwanese think-tank, told StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.
Another Taiwanese analyst — Lin Fei-fan, Director of the Board, New Frontier Foundation — who joined in the discussion said China played a role in amplifying fake news spread by Opposition parties that Taiwan would open up its labour market to Indian workers, an issue on which the Taiwanese government has not taken a final decision yet.
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National security looks at capabilities and capabilities could be technologies, either old or new but traditionally it’s a combination of both, says Anshuman Tripathi, Member, National Security Advisory Board (NSAB).
Speaking to StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, he said technology is supposed to augment human capabilities, be a force-multiplier but it has unfortunately ended up playing on the human failing that we become lazier. “As a race, we humans need to be careful that we keep our skill sets alive going forward.”
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Has growing proximity between Russia and China and India’s greater engagement with the United States strained the India-Russia bilateral relationship?
Both India and Russia might have special relationships with other partners but we can be sure about India and you can be sure about Russia that it’s a choice by us and by you; it’s not for anybody else to dictate these relationships, says Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director, Valdai Discussion Club.
Speaking to StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, he said the view in Russia now is that it’s normal that any country tries to diversify its relationships. Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman, Valdai Discussion Club, who was also part of the discussion, said Russia is paving the way to the future which doesn’t have to be unidirectional but can carry others along.
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The recent round of elections to state assemblies saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pull off an audacious win in Madhya Pradesh. Not only did it overcome four-term anti-incumbency, but it also managed to win two-thirds majority in the state assembly. Undoubtedly, the big draw was Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
However, there is a very important subtext to BJP’s electoral victory that has not get its due. It is one of the key reasons influencing BJP’s outstanding victory. Regardless, it has put the spotlight on the state’s agrarian economy, which has undergone a massive makeover in the last 15 years.
How did Madhya Pradesh pull this off? To answer this and more, Anil Padmanabhan spoke to Ashok Gulati, an agriculture economist and the last word on all things Indian agriculture.
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Talks with China are continuing at both military and diplomatic levels but we are also maintaining a robust posture along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), says Army Chief General Manoj Pande.
In an exclusive interview with Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, Gen. Pande talks about Indian Army's transformation journey, modernisation, aatmanirbharta in defence, global reach, situation along the China and Pakistan border and more.
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From Kyaukpyu and Chittagong ports on India’s eastern seaboard to Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan, China has strategically invested all along this country’s maritime borders, with serious implications says Alok Bansal, former naval officer who has been writing and researching on India’s neighbourhood.
He spoke to Surya Gangadharan about his latest book ‘Gwadar: A Chinese Gibraltar’. In his view, the fact that neither Hambantota nor Gwadar have proved commercially viable is irrelevant. Beijing sees these ports as part of its larger design when its navy enters the Indian Ocean in force, with the aim of securing its energy supplies and limiting the Indian Navy’s ability to interdict them.
Bansal also pointed to China’s naval base in Somalia, where it has naval assets including marine personnel, giving it another instrument to monitor the flow of its energy supplies.
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In recent years India has witnessed unprecedented success in non-cricket sports. The big story has been the remarkable revival of Indian hockey—men, women, and juniors.
Alongside we saw Neeraj Chopra win a gold medal in javelin at the Olympics. Similarly, our athletes competing in archery, boxing, badminton and so on are on the winners podium at various international sporting events.
This remarkable renaissance is happening due to a host of factors. And in this, Odisha has an important footnote. It has very quietly - without the customary chest thumping - successfully developed a state of the arts sports infrastructure. Amazing for a state which was never considered frontline in development. Yet, it has not hesitated in forking out the funds to grow the state as a sports hub.
What was the thought behind this pivot? How is it ensuring that these expensive sports assets do not go to seed - as we witnessed after the conclusion of the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi?
To answer all of this and more, Anil Padmanabhan spoke to Vineel Krishna, Secretary Sports in the Odisha Government.
Watch the full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFzI4Ff33Jc
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The Northern Army Commander has responsibilities along borders facing both China and Pakistan. In this exclusive interview with Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, Lt Gen Upendra Dwivedi delves into issues involving the areas that face Pakistan first and then addresses those on the Chinese side.
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir reflects transformational changes that are noteworthy. Foremost amongst them, is the public apathy, bordering on hostility, towards terrorists in J&K. The abrogation of Article 370 and subsequent developmental projects is resulting in a swing in public perception that favours the government’s approach.
“J&K is now like any other normal state or a Union Territory but with a degree of caution,” says Northern Army Commander Lt Gen Upendra Dwivedi.
The situation in Ladakh front and the Chinese threat, the situation is stable but not normal. Of the seven friction points, five have been settled. The trust has been broken and there is a requirement of rebuilding it, he says.
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In an exclusive interview with Nitin A. Gokhale, the former Army Commander of Army Training Command, Shimla and UPSC Member, Lt Gen Raj Shukla (Retd) spoke extensively on India’s National Security Futures’.
Spelling out the rapid changes in warfare brought about by informational age technologies already proliferating in the neighbourhood, Gen Shukla said that India needs a comprehensive national security makeover to reduce power symmetry with China as Cold War 2.0 is already here.
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Sushant Sareen is not known for mincing his words. In a chat with Ramananda Sengupta, the Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation who ranks among the leading Indian experts on Pakistan and India’s place in the world discusses the issues of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the Khalistani terrorist living in the US that Indian agents reportedly tried to assassinate, as well as the growing number of Pakistani terrorists linked to attacks on India who are being ‘taken out’, by mysterious “unknown gunmen” across their homeland.
As for the violent deaths of terrorists in Pakistan linked to attacks on Indian interests, he says he would be delighted to know that Indian agencies, or even ‘Agent Vinod or The Phantom’ were behind this. However, given the fact that India is unlikely to have the footprint, or logistics and assets in place to kill these people in the hinterlands of the country, it is far more likely that the Pakistani deep state is indulging in some cleaning up operations.
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Eight years ago India teamed up with France to launch the International Solar Alliance (ISA) on the first day of the Paris meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP).
This took the world by surprise, which till then believed that India naysaying could sabotage the crucial talks to battle climate change. Indeed, this was the coming out moment for Indian climate diplomacy, which till then had been siloed as a perennial critic and naysayer. It also ensured India a passage to the global high table as an entity seriously committed to fighting global climate change.
This so-called alliance of sunshine states—falling between the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn–is made up of mostly countries from the global South. It provides another platform for India in its bid to be the champion of the global South.
How will all this play out? And has the ISA lived upto its initial hype? To answer this and more, Anil Padmanabhan spoke to Vyoma Jha, India Clean Energy Senior Advocate, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
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On this day 52 years ago, India won the war against Pakistan, which led to the creation of a new country (Bangladesh). It was a swift military operation but was planned over months after the Pakistani army went on a killing spree in late-March that year in what was then East Pakistan.
As the Indian military prepared for an operation, Indian authorities also ensured that the atrocities committed by the Pakistani army did not go unnoticed, especially by the Western media.
In this episode of 'Simply Nitin', StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale details what happened in the lead-up to December 16, 1971, and how in 13 days the Pakistani army bit the dust.
The India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) is emerging as a key pivot around which the India-US relationship will be defined in the coming year.
In a session moderated by Nitin A. Gokhale at the recently held Global Technology Summit hosted in conjunction with Carnegie India and the Ministry of External Affairs, panellists which included India’s Former Ambassador to the US, Arun Singh, Special Assistant to the US President and Senior Director for Technology and National Security, Tarun Chhabra, MD & CEO of Invest India, Nivruti Rai, General Atomics Chief Executive, Vivek Lall and Chantal Lakatos de Alcantara of Lam Research, weighed in on how far the India-US relationship had moved forward in the last few years.
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Alok Bansal, Director of India Foundation on the Supreme Court’s verdict on the government’s move to abrogate Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir says the “historic” verdict has provided a legal sanctity to the government’s decision which now cannot be overturned.
This decision now lays to rest the perception among some people in J&K that Jammu and Kashmir had a special role because they signed an instrument of accession that no other princely state had signed.
On the international front, Bansal believes that while some Western organisations may continue to criticise the decision overall the Supreme Court verdict enhances the government’s standing internationally as it shows that what they did was correct.
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An effort that has gone in from the top leaderships of India and US to generate momentum at various levels, especially at the business level, is now showing results, says Vivek Lall, Chief Executive of General Atomics and a Board member of USIBC on the India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET).
Speaking about the focus areas of cooperation under iCET with Nitin A. Gokhale, Lall said particular attention is being placed on defence innovation, 5G and 6G, and rare earth minerals for which cooperation had already begun at the business level.
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We have moved a case for a third aircraft carrier, the second that can be indigenously built, Navy Chief Admiral R Hari Kumar has told Nitin A. Gokhale.
In an exclusive chat on board INS Visakhapatnam, the Admiral said the Indian Navy has to keep an eye on the vast Indian Ocean Region and an even wider area in the Indo-Pacific. “The idea is to have at least two operational carrier battle groups, for which three aircraft carriers will be needed.”
He also went on to elaborate why engagement is the key when it comes to the region and how the Indian Navy is going about it.
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As global temperatures rise and sea ice thaws, geopolitics is hotting up in the cooler climes of the Arctic, courtesy the Northern Sea Route (NSR). If the passage becomes ice-free the whole year round due to global warming, it could have a major impact on the global commercial markets.
It will become a shorter shipping route between Northeast Asia and Europe, reducing transit time from Asia by at least 40% compared to the route that goes via the Suez Canal, says Japanese scholar Dr Daisuke Kawai, Deputy Director of Economic Security Research Program at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo.
Adds that it would also allow access to the huge untapped deposits of oil, gas and mineral resources such as rare earths in the region, which would impact the global energy markets.
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It would be extremely naïve and dangerous to assume that the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative, is losing steam, says Dr Walter Ladwig, a Senior Lecturer in International Relations at King’s College, London.
The question mark is important, he told Ramananda Sengupta, because there are indications that China has learned from its mistakes over the first decade, and is rebooting the BRI to address those.
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China is not a normal country...don't think you can have a normal relationship with China, says Cleo Paskal, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Washington DC.
She highlights the implications of the marathon meeting between the US and Chinese Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco.
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As Israel steps up its ground offensive in Gaza in retaliation for the deadly attacks by Hamas on October 7, voices favouring a ceasefire have grown. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a ‘long’ war that would destroy the terror infrastructure of Hamas.
This is the moment for friends to step in and tell both sides that hostility by itself is not a solution, says analyst and author MJ Akbar, in a chat with StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.
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The world will have to unite much more strongly against terror, says Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. The attack on Israel(by Hamas) was designed to get maximum response but it turned out to be a miscalculation, he told StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale on ‘The Gist’.
The former diplomat, who has served as India’s permanent representative to the United Nations, is of the view that the UN Security Council has been paralysed for a decade now because the five permanent members are in disagreement.
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For the last few years, the Chinese economy has come under scrutiny, especially after the West initiated decoupling. Its rapidly slowing economy has got commentators claiming that its economic end is near. Inevitably, the reality is a lot more nuanced. Indeed, the Chinese economy is facing serious risks, but it is nowhere near a “Lehman moment”.
In a chat with Anil Padmanabhan on Capital Calculus, Shehzad Qazi, MD of China Beige Book says, 'No collapse but a lacklustre recovery.'
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Against the backdrop of an ongoing border standoff with China that’s over 3 years old, India has “no option but to commence a dialogue with China, simply because you don’t have the luxury of being separated by oceans and continents,” says former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale.
The other Quad partners have also entered into talks with China and having a dialogue per se doesn’t mean you concede ground, the former diplomat told StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale on ‘The Gist’.
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A few days ago, the NITI Aayog shared a sneak peek of the vision document for India @2047. The big headline was the target of $30 trillion set by the institution for the country’s economy - which means growing the economy nearly 10X from the present level of $3.4 trillion.
Can India pull this off? Remember that global circumstances are extremely inclement given rapidly deteriorating geopolitics and a battered global economy. Further, who will India do this? What will it entail?
Listen in to Anil Padmanabhan's interaction with Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL Limited.
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If President Biden does visit (for India’s Republic Day) in January, it will really show his commitment to India because he’s going to be in full on campaign mode by that point,' says Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Programme at the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS). Additionally, the 'India-U.S ‘partnership plus’ has been expanding for the last 20 odd years.'
To watch the full interview, click on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYlQyFsvxyI
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The India-US 2+2 dialogue last week in Delhi was routine in many respects but such meetings are required to push bureaucracies and boost confidence on either side, says Vice Admiral Shekhar Sinha, former Commander of Western Fleet and head of Integrated Defence Staff.
Adds the agreement on building the General Electric engine in India is a continuing story, and will take time to happen.
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Bonnie S. Glaser, MD of the Indo-Pacific Programme at the German Marshall Fund of the US in conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi explores the anticipated Biden-Xi meet at the APEC Summit, expectations, outcomes, and the future of US-China relations.
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Velina Tchakarova, geopolitical strategist, elaborates on her analysis of the world which is “already in the context of a Cold War 2.0”. She discusses conflicts and crises in global hotspots and the risks of further India-China military tension.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFQeT_--t78
The diplomatic boycott by some nations of the Winter Olympics being held in Beijing has once again drawn world attention towards human rights abuses of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. And religion does play a role, ironically in a so-called atheist state. The Chinese Communist Party sees religions as competitors, says James Millward, Professor of Intersocietal History at the Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. They're really trying to displace or de-centre religion for those people for whom it might be a central aspect of their lives; they want to replace that with the Chinese Communist Party as a focus of faith and belief, he told StratNews Global in this podcast. Listen in for more.
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The recent US commando raid, which led to the killing of ISIS chief Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi in Syria, has left many counter-terrorism experts downplaying the operation and warning that his death will not prevent the resurgence of the group. Already, ISIS is expanding its base in both Iraq and Syria. However, Dr Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow and Coordinator of Counter-Terrorism Center, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) points out that the US operation should be seen as an encouraging sign by the international community. Dr Rasheed argues that with Washington’s focus on Ukraine and China, and its withdrawal from West Asia and Afghanistan, perceptions had grown that the US was no longer interested in battling the war against terror. This operation, he argues, has dispelled such notions and restored faith amongst the US’s allies. Such an attitude should be welcomed especially as ISIS continues to expand its footprint into East and West Africa while also making a base for itself in the Af-Pak region.
Disclaimer: The views shared are the interviewee’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of IDSA
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A year after the junta seized power in Myanmar, the situation continues to be bleak: there’s no let-up in violence, the economy is in bad shape and the military keeps cracking down on opponents. But it hasn’t been able to consolidate control, says Thomas Kean, Editor-in-Chief of ‘Frontier Myanmar’, a fortnightly magazine. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Kean, who is also a senior consultant with the International Crisis Group, says the current military rule has both parallels and differences with 1988 when the military had seized power. Listen in for more.
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The recent Houthi drone attacks upon the UAE is significant as it has dragged another actor into the over six-year-long Yemen conflict which so far was being conducted between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Dr Alvite Ningthoujam, Assistant Professor at Symbiosis School of International Studies and an expert on West Asia believes that the timing of the attacks is significant as the Houthis – who are rapidly losing territory in Yemen – want to draw the attention of the international community. He adds however that given that there is an “Iranian fingerprint” as far as the supply of drones to Houthis are concerned, it is possible that the drone attacks could also be seen as an Iranian pressure tactic during the ongoing JCPOA talks. Such drone attacks suits Tehran, as it would serve its “maximalist agenda” of ensuring concessions from the West before a deal is signed while also being seen as the state that can ensure stability in the Middle East.
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The Ukraine crisis shows no signs of waning; the United States has rejected Russia’s demand to bar Ukraine from NATO but diplomatic initiatives continue. Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany have reaffirmed commitment to the long-standing ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin is eyeing the long game and wants to be a player in the systemic rivalry between China and the United States, says Velina Tchakarova, director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy. And by doing so, Putin seeks to erase European powers from the equation, Velina told StratNews Global. Asked about the relevance of NATO in the current geopolitical order, she replied in the affirmative, adding that the Cold War-era alliance needs to demonstrate hard power. Listen in for more.
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After the Malian junta pushed back elections by four years, the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) imposed harsh economic sanctions on the country. There have been huge protests in Mali against the sanctions, with most of the anger directed at former colonial power France which has had a troop presence in Mali for nearly a decade now. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Michael Shurkin, Director of Global Programs at 14 North Strategies, says neglecting the importance of building narratives and image has cost France and the western powers dear. He also dwells on the role of Russia. Listen in for more.
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Tensions have been raised as North Korea continues to conduct ballistic missile tests. The tests which came after the United States put more sanctions on the DPRK has most people wondering as to how far Kim Jong Un is likely to go and what is likely to be the US’s response. Korea expert Professor Ramon Pacheco Pardo who is Professor of International Relations at King's College London and KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance believes that North Korea sees the tests as a “window of opportunity” for talks and win concessions from both South Korea and the Americans. They feel the timing is opportune for them right now as the region is particularly sensitive with Beijing heading into the Winter Olympics next month and South Korea heading into elections in March. On the US’s side, Professor Pacheco believes that the Biden administration will not consider North Korea a priority right now and will possibly sit with a new South Korean president post March to devise a new strategy. As far as other actors are concerned, Professor Pardo believes China is particularly unhappy with the tests given the timing but there is little Beijing can do to rein in North Korea because the border is currently closed right now.
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A meeting of the foreign ministers of The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that was to take place in Cambodia—the current chair of the 10-member bloc—next week has been postponed indefinitely. The official reason is that some members can’t make it due to other engagements but there’s more to it. The Malaysian foreign minister has said some members had reservations about Cambodian PM Hun Sen’s visit to Myanmar earlier this month, the first by a head of government since last year’s military coup in Myanmar. The Cambodian leader justifies his engagement with the junta as necessary but not all in the bloc are convinced. Given the sharp divisions within the group, what’s the way forward? In this podcast with StratNews Global, Hunter Marston, a researcher at the Australian National University, who focuses on Southeast Asia, offers his views. Listen in for more.
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A video released by the Chinese official media on New Year’s Day shows troops with a Chinese flag and claims that the location was Galwan. Propaganda videos by the Chinese are not uncommon but this one was meant—mainly for Chinese audiences—to project that Xi Jinping has a fim border policy in place, says Tibetologist, historian and author Claude Arpi. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Arpi also dwells on the bridge that China is building across Pangong Lak. Listen in for more.
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Gabriel Boric, 35, will be Chile’s youngest president. The former student leader and Leftist candidate defeated his far-right rival José Antonio Kast in a highly polarising election in which the two candidates put forth starkly different visions for the Latin American nation. Both of them come from parties that have never governed Chile. In this podcast with StratNews Global, John Londregan, Professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University in the U.S. tells us about the road ahead for what was once South America’s most stable economy.
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The recent flurry of high-profile visits conducted by the UAE suggests that the Emiratis are looking to not just bolster but balance ties with fellow countries in the region. The visit by Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – the first time an Israeli PM has officially visited the UAE – occurring just after the UAE NSA Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Iran for talks with Iranian leaders is a case in point. Navdeep Suri, former Indian ambassador to the UAE says that such talks not just with Iran and Israel but with other nations such as Syria and even Turkey – a country once viewed with hostility by the UAE – suggests that the Gulf country may now be looking to adjust in a region which it believes will soon see reduced American influence. Suri’s contention, which comes in the face of the Gulf nation publicly rejecting the US F-35 fighter jet deal for French Rafales, suggests that Middle East politics may be undergoing a change with geographically small but rich nations such as Qatar and UAE slowly coming into the forefront.
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What’s behind Saudi Arabia’s decision to ban the Tablighi Jamaat, an Islamic missionary movement launched in India nearly a century ago, which has a huge following, especially in South Asia? It’s an attempt by an authoritarian regime that has been accused of human rights abuses to repaint the image of the kingdom and its leader (Crown Prince Mohd bin Salman) in the West that has little knowledge about Islamic movements, says Talmiz Ahmad, former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Ambassador Ahmad shares his views on the heart of the conflict. Listen in for more.
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The past few days/weeks have been especially busy for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his propaganda machinery. First, Xi ensured the Communist Party put him in the league of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. That means he can indefinitely stay in power. Then came the not-so-mysterious ‘lost and found’ episode involving tennis star Peng Shuai after she accused a senior party functionary of sexual assault. The Women’s Tennis Association responded by suspending all its tournaments in China, even if that meant a huge revenue loss. Then came China’s exclusion from Joe Biden’s democracy summit. China went to the extent of saying it didn’t need any certificate as it was a more functional democracy than the United States. And now the U.S. and some of its allies like Australia and Canada have announced a diplomatic boycott of next year’s Winter Olympics to be held in Beijing. China has warned Biden of consequences. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Michael Schuman, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and author of the book titled ‘Superpower Interrupted: The Chinese History of the World’ shares his insights about why Xi Jinping and his party are doing what they are. Tune in for more.
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The United Nations has stated that the upcoming Libyan presidential elections is an “essential step” towards moving towards peace in this war-torn country. But 10 years on since the deposition of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and it seems that the elections though welcome will bring neither peace nor stability, to the country. Anil Trigunayat, former Indian ambassador to Libya, points out that many international players have key stakes in the country and are not willing to let them go. For instance, countries such as Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, UK and Russia all have influence in the eastern part of Libya where arms, ammunition and militia groups reign under their tacit control. Opposed to them are Turkey, Italy and Qatar who have influence in the western part of the country. Not only is this international power play hurting Libya it is also ensuring that UN observation of the presidential elections is being hampered. With such a scenario it is unlikely that Libya can move towards any kind of normalcy, no matter who comes to power.
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Some countries have imposed blanket travel bans to and from South Africa and other ‘at risk’ countries over a new strain of Covid-19 called Omicron. The move is premature, says Dr Angelique Coetzee, chairperson of South African Medical Association and the first person to alert authorities in South Africa about patients showing symptoms of Covid-19 that’s different from what has been seen so far. India has adopted a strategy of not enforcing blanket travel bans but instead going in for testing of patients arriving from ‘at risk’ countries. On Wednesday, India tested nearly 3,500 people who had come in from such countries but only six people were found positive. I am in favour of what India is doing, Dr Coetzee told StratNews Global in this podcast. Tune in for more.
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In line with his election campaign pledge, Joe Biden is set to host the first summit for democracy on December 9 and 10. Invites for the virtual event have been sent to 110 participants, including Taiwan, which the United States does not recognize as an independent nation. India is on the list of invitees but Russia is not, nor is China. The U.S. is currently not well poised to host such an event, says former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. “If you are going to have a global summit on democracy in order to send a message to authoritarian regimes, you have to do it from a position of strength in terms of your own credentials,” Ambassador Sibal told StratNews Global in this podcast. Tune in for more.
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Despite mandatory lockdowns and warnings that those still unvaccinated will not be able to avail of basic services, a section of the European public continues to refuse to get the vaccine. The results have been dire with the fourth wave of Covid cases already having hit Germany which now threatens to engulf other member countries in the continent. Velina Tchakarova, director at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna believes that ignorance heightened by propaganda by far-right groups along with the emergence of dangerous online groups – some of them believed to be affiliated to QAnon – who are continuing to spout conspiracy theories about the virus and vaccine, are part of the problem. However, the health dangers aside, these are also worrying times for the economy as government severance pay is running low and many small businesses are likely to be further hit, a disaster in smaller countries like Austria which runs largely on small businesses.
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The bold climate goals announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at COP26 in Glasgow are achievable, says Glen Peters, Research Director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo. The way India has rolled out solar and wind energy in the last five years has been quite impressive, Peters told StratNews Global in a podcast, adding that by 2030 India may well overdeliver the targets it has set for itself, as it has done before. Regarding fingers being pointed at India for changing the text from “phasing out” coal to “phasing down” coal, Peters says the criticism is unfair. Tune in for more.
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India will remain relevant to Afghanistan and vice-versa despite all the propaganda peddled by Pakistan, as was exemplified by the success of the Delhi Security Dialogue that was attended by seven other countries, says PS Raghavan, former Indian Ambassador to Russia. Pakistan’s intention is to show that it is actually driving events in Afghanistan but Afghanistan’s immediate needs are a far cry from what Pakistan can deliver, Ambassador Raghavan, who has also served as Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
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As the globe heats up at a pace faster than expected, India has been doing its bit under the Paris agreement, in fact, bettering it. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced enhanced targets at the Glasgow UN climate conference that’s currently underway. And in a way, nudged the so-called developed world to step up. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Ulka Kelkar, Director, Climate programme, World Resources Institute, India, talks about India being part of the solution and the international green contribution it has been making. Tune in for more.
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This week’s ASEAN summit had a notable omission—Myanmar—after the 10-member bloc barred the junta leader from attending. Frustration among some ASEAN countries has been growing after the junta accepted the five-point proposal in April but went back on it, lately refusing to allow the ASEAN envoy from meeting detained state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen who will take over as the group’s chair next year described the situation as ‘ASEAN minus one’. Cambodia’s closest relationship is with China and Cambodia taking a position sent an implicit signal that China is also not happy with Myanmar, Dr Bridget Welsh, Honorary Research Associate with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
For someone often described as an ‘army prop’, it would seem rather unusual for Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan to disagree with Army chief Gen Bajwa’s decision to transfer ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed as a Corps commander. Gen Faiz is considered close to Imran and has gone out of the way to help him politically. So what’s at the heart of the tussle? The Pakistani army guards institutional autonomy over everything else, says Lt Gen Harish Thukral (Retd), who has served as defence attaché at the Indian mission in Islamabad. The ISI chief may just have crossed a red line as the Chief of Army Staff expects his officers not to be politically inclined, Lt Gen Thukral (Retd) told StratNews Global in this podcast. Listen in for more
The Indian space industry, which had for long been an exclusive domain of the government, has got a fillip in the form of the Indian Space Association (ISpA). Launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this week, the industry association of space and satellite companies, both private and public, will be the unified voice of all relevant stakeholders. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Lt Gen AK Bhatt (Retd), Director General of ISpA, outlines what’s high on the association’s to-do list and challenges. Listen in for more.
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Tension with China is at its worst in four decades, says Taiwan’s defence minister, pushing for more military spending. In the past week, there’s been a spurt in the number of Chinese military planes penetrating Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. A host of factors may have contributed to China’s coercion, says J. Michael Cole, a senior fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, DC. China is using military assertiveness as a demonstration that it will not be deterred, not be dictated to and that it also has the ability to set the tone within the region, Cole told StratNews Global. So what level of deterrence needs to be put in place? Listen in for more.
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The German elections have thrown up a fractured mandate, with the Social Democrats emerging as the single largest party. Close behind are the Christian Democrats (outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party). Negotiations to form a ruling coalition could take time; it took over five months the last time around in 2017. In this podcast, Velina Tchakarova, director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, explains what options are possible. She also talks about its implications for Europe and on Sino-German ties. Listen in for more.
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AUKUS, the trilateral security pact involving Australia, the U.S. and the UK, has not just angered China and France but some drawn criticism from some ASEAN member states as well. There’s no unanimity in the 10-member bloc on the issue though. Indonesia and Malaysia have warned that the deal, which will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarines, could trigger an arms race in the region. But the Philippines says the pact will maintain the balance of power in the region. Despite the lack of coherence across Southeast Asian countries, we haven’t really seen negative implications for the respective bilateral relationships of those countries with Australia, the UK or the U.S., says Evan Laksmana, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. But if China chooses to respond to AUKUS by increasing its military presence in the South China Sea, the immediate recipient of the tension will be the Southeast Asian countries, Laksmana told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
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During his visit to New Delhi earlier this week, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said he expects India to announce more goals in the run-up to the UN climate conference in Glasgow later this year. The issue of climate funding also came up during his talks with the Indian leadership. Kerry said six big American banks had committed to investing over $4 trillion to help countries make the transition to clean energy. A $100 billion annual climate fund by developed nations to help developing nations cope with the effects of climate change, which was talked about at the climate conference in Copenhagen more than a decade ago, has made tardy progress. We should look at finance that’s not only through loans but grants, says Alice Hill, senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. Some of the emerging economies have a growing problem of debt crisis and it will be very difficult for them to tackle the challenge of climate change if we don’t give some debt relief, she told StratNews Global. And yes, the developed world could learn from developing countries such as India, when it comes to dealing with climate change, Hill added. Listen in for more.
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Not many countries have made their intent clear about if and how they intend to deal with the new Taliban government in Afghanistan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken did spell out the U.S. stance earlier this week. If the Taliban upholds basic rights, it's a government we can work with; if it doesn’t, we won’t, Blinken told Tolo News in an exclusive interview. Serious questions are going to arise if the Americans are actually going to start according to recognition or enter into some degree of accommodation with a regime like the Taliban, Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow with the Observer Research Foundation, told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
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The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has left India worried about the possible fallout of militant groups such as the Al Qaeda and the ISIS-Khorasan launching attacks on the country. However, Dr AJAY SAHNI, a terrorism expert and executive director for the Institute for Conflict Management believes that such fears are groundless. Speaking to ASHWIN AHMAD, Sahni believes that these global militant groups have been trying to carry out jihad in India (Al Qaeda since 1996 and Islamic State since 2014) with little success. Coming to India itself, Sahni states radicalization of Indian Muslims and the activation of Indian sleeper cells in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere in the country is unlikely as Islamabad has tried this tactic in the past and failed. Having said this, he does concede that reports that Pakistan-based terror groups such as the LeT and the JeM are shifting base to Afghanistan is a cause for concern as Islamabad gets further grounds for plausible deniability. On the Taliban, Sahni states India, the West, and other countries should be clear – the group has no interest in distancing itself from other militant groups such as the Al Qaeda. He however believes the West will continue to ignore this fact - as they have done since 9/11 - that the problem of the Taliban and the problem of Afghanistan is because of Pakistan.
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The two-decade-long U.S. military operation in Afghanistan can be encapsulated thus: get cracking after terror attacks on American soil, co-opt allies in the name of a global war on terror, invest heavily monetary and otherwise without a clear-cut end objective, make several errors along the way and talk to the same terrorists you are fighting. without consulting allies and partners. No doubt, the hasty and messy U.S. retreat from Afghanistan has left America staring at tough questions, both at home and abroad. The moment America decided to open talks with the Taliban and deal with them, there was a feeling among those allies that they were not taken on board, says StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale. In this podcast, he also talks about regional security dynamics in the aftermath of the American pullout and where India stands amidst all this. Tune in for more.
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The recent visit by US Vice President Kamala Harris should have been lauded in normal times. Despite her diplomatic faux pas in Guatemala, Harris was entrusted by the Biden administration to visit two key allies, Singapore and Vietnam, and emphasise to them and the region that the US remained committed to its Indo-Pacific vision. Former ambassador to Japan and Southeast Asia expert Deepa Gopalan Wadhwa however believes that despite Harris having done all this admirably, the attention of the ASEAN nations would be focused on the bungling of the US president Joe Biden on Afghanistan. Speaking with Ashwin Ahmad, Wadhwa says the credibility of not just the president but the US is at stake. This is something Biden urgently needs to address if he is to make any headway at upcoming multilateral summits such as the in-person head-of-state Quad summit in late September. This is important not just for himself but for Harris too if she is to emerge as a credible Democratic presidential candidate for the 2024 US presidential polls.
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If the Taliban pride themselves in ‘winning the war against the U.S. and its allies in Afghanistan, there’s one nation that’s equally euphoric if not more. “Pakistan saw the contest that was taking place in Afghanistan as a contest between a regime that was friendly towards India and not so friendly towards Pakistan. So the Taliban victory is seen in that sense as a Pakistani victory,” says Jayant Prasad, former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan. Pakistan will try and do its utmost to see that the Indian presence in Afghanistan is cut to size and that India is not able to operate its development programmes freely as it did earlier, he told StratNews Global. In this podcast, Ambassador Prasad also spoke about the August 31 troop withdrawal deadline set by the U.S. and what India should do going forward with respect to Afghanistan. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
The entry of the Taliban government in Afghanistan has not only stirred up the Middle East but has brought together various terror groups such as the Al-Qaeda, ISIS and the Taliban into close proximity with one another, leading one to ask several questions. How will major Middle Eastern actors such as Iran and Saudi Arabia react to the Taliban? Will Shia Iran eventually clash with Sunni Taliban forces? Will jihadi groups such as ISIS and the Taliban who have fought each other in the past be able to put aside their differences and form a loosely unified jihadi coalition? If so, what will all this mean for India? West Asian expert and Fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme at the ORF, Kabir Taneja gives his take in an interview with Ashwin Ahmad.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
The recently held joint military drills by the US and South Korea has predictably provoked a storm from North Korea who has called these drills a “security crisis” and had threatened to upgrade its military and nuclear arsenal. Former ambassador and Korea expert Vishnu Prakashbelieves Pyongyang is using these drills as a pretext to raise the rhetoric to gain President Biden’s attention but what should one really be focussing on is China. Prakash believes Beijing, which will be watching events closely, will do everything it can to prevent any form of détente as they fear American boots in North Korea. On the other hand, President Xi has not been pleased with Kim Jong Un in the past and the rise of Delta variant Covid cases in China could complicate the resumption of trade. All in all, though, the fact that the US-China relationship is at an all-time low with China repeatedly ignoring US edicts on sanctions on Iran and North Korea suggests that little is going to change.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
The planet is heating up at an alarming rate and if it continues, many of the adverse effects may well be irreversible. The time to act is now, says the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effects of global warming are quite stark: stronger and frequent tropical cyclones, rising sea levels, intense heat waves and erratic monsoon. Countries need to better the climate commitments made at the Paris climate summit in 2015, Prof. Krishna AchutaRao of the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences at IIT Delhi told StratNews Global. He hopes world leaders will keep the climate emergency in mind while negotiating at the UN climate change conference in Glasgow in November.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
The euphoria of the ‘Arab Spring’ seems to be well and truly over for Tunisia. The recent sacking of the prime minister and the suspension of Parliament by President Kais Saied seems to suggest that the transition from dictatorship to parliamentary democracy – Tunisia was the only country in the Arab Spring who managed to do so – has failed. But Africa expert and former Indian ambassador to Libya Anil Trigunayat does not think so. In an interview with Ashwin Ahmad, the ambassador points out that the Tunisian people are supporting Saied out of compulsion. A collapsing economy, lack of stable governance – Tunisia has had nine governments in ten years – and an inability to handle the pandemic has created strong public support for Saied. But such support will only be temporary. Tunisia has stronger democratic institutions than Egypt which has returned to dictatorship. This combined with the fact that western nations, especially France and the EU which makes up 75 per cent of Tunisia’s exports, is more than likely to prevail upon the president to return to democracy within 30 days. The future is uncertain, but we could soon see the return to new normalcy for the North African nation.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
Malaysia is currently battling both politics and the pandemic. A spike in the Covid-19 infections has fuelled public anger. And Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who the Opposition claims has lost his majority, insists he will stay on as he has the numbers. Parliament has been suspended, ostensibly after some of its members were found to be infected with the virus. Muhyiddin says he will take a floor test when the House reconvenes next month; no date given so far. He doesn’t have enough numbers as yet, says James Chin, Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, Australia. In this podcast, Prof. Chin also talks about the monarchy, the opposition and what Muhyiddin’s options are.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Tibet, his first as Chinese President, coincided with Beijing marking 70 years of its control over the region. It’s also the centenary year of the Chinese Communist Party. He came to tell the world that 70 years of existence of the Chinese regime in Tibet is a success story but it is not, says Tenzin Lekshay, Spokesperson of the Central Tibetan Administration. During the visit, he praised all ethnic groups barring Tibetans; he tried to take away the ownership of Tibet from Tibetans, Lekshay told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
The Pegasus spyware scandal has raised much debate about the need to safeguard privacy and many cyber experts argue one of the best ways to do that is through legislation. But Dr Pavan Duggal, a Supreme Court advocate, and one of the world’s leading experts on cyber law, tells Ashwin Ahmad that currently there is a vacuum as far as cyber security laws are concerned. He feels that this is due to the fact most nations do not want to be named and shamed for their covert and overt activities in cyberspace and thus the onus remains on nations to tighten their own cyber laws.
Legal work on this has been progressing in the Far East, the most interesting being that of Vietnam which has declared global cyberspace as its “national cyberspace” in its latest cyber plan. This ensures that if any country or individual commits a cyber-crime anywhere in the world which goes against Vietnamese law will face legal consequences. Such legislation which for the first goes beyond extra-territorial boundaries could be followed up by other nations with the hopeful result that spyware and cyber-crime could be detected earlier. However, this is still a long road ahead.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
The recently released white paper by Japan’s Ministry of Defense has a tone and tenor quite different from the documents of earlier years. To begin with, the cover has the picture of a samurai on horseback, compared to that of Mount Fuji or cherry blossoms in the previous years. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Robert Ward, director of geo-economics and strategy at The International Institute for Strategic Studies and head of the Japan Chair, lists the top three standout elements in the document. Tune in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
With Sher Bahadur Deuba taking over as Nepal’s Prime Minister as ordered by the country’s Supreme Court, it’s curtains on the political drama playing out since December last year by KP Sharma Oli who quit to make way for Deuba. But the political instability may not be over till Deuba proves his majority on the floor of the House. The court verdict is unprecedented in more ways than one, Ranjit Rae, former Indian Ambassador to Nepal, told StratNews Global. Tune in for more.
Podcast Cover : Manas R. Tarai
Unofficial reports claiming India has opened backchannel talks with the Taliban suggest that New Delhi’s policy of only engaging with the Afghan government may now be coming to an end. But even if India is reportedly doing so the window of opportunity remains small. As Shalini Chawla, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies - and an expert on Pakistan and Afghanistan - pointed out to Ashwin Ahmad the Taliban has made it clear that they have “shared values and culture with Pakistan” while with India they seek “peaceful co-existence.” This statement which brings out the disparity with which the Taliban views Pakistan and India has emboldened Islamabad to try and elbow India out of the Taliban's influence altogether. This was stated bluntly by Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi who stated bluntly that India’s presence in Afghanistan was “perhaps larger than it ought to be.”
India is certainly aware of the challenges posed by both Pakistan and China whom the Taliban has recently dubbed as a “friend” of Afghanistan. While both nations are certainly aware of the danger posed by Islamic militants from Afghanistan they do believe that their influence over the Taliban is larger than that of India’s. It will be up to India, in concert with other nations such as Russia and Iran, to prove them wrong in the coming days.
Podcast Producer :Manas R. Tarai
The deadlock among members of OPEC+, the bloc of 23 oil-producing countries, over a deal on increasing output has led to a crude shock, quite literally. As uncertainty prevailed, oil prices rose. As the UAE insisted that its output quota be revised upwards, Saudi Arabia—the largest oil producer in the group—and Russia didn’t agree. In this podcast with StratNews Global, energy economist Anas Alhajji explains the nub of the discord, what it means for the oil market and why despite being a votary of free-market economics he strongly believes the oil market has to be managed. Tune in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
The recent insistence by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the European Union (EU) should have a face-to-face summit meeting with President Putin has raised questions as to whether the main EU nations – Germany and France – are softening their stance towards Russia. If so, what would that mean for both Brussels and Moscow? In this interview Professor Bhaswati Sarkar, Centre of European Studies, JNU tells Ashwin Ahmad that France and Germany’s stance is nothing new. On France’s side, President Macron has made continued visits to Russia even during the pandemic while Germany conscious of its economic interests has constantly made sure to include Moscow and Beijing in its foreign policy calculus. On Russia’s side, Professor Sarkar points out that while Moscow would certainly want an easing of sanctions, Putin, unlike former Russian president Boris Yeltsin, is no Europhile. He believes that trade and other matters with Brussels can only be taken forward through mutual respect and lack of interference in its internal affairs. This is something the EU will not be able to comply with ensuring that the relations ‘reset’ desired by both German and France will continue to be an issue that will divide an already fractured EU.
Podcast Producer - Manas R. Tarai
Singapore is changing the narrative or at least attempting to, when it comes to dealing, rather living, with Covid-19. The city-state with a population of under six million has distinct advantages such as aggressive contact tracing and a speedy vaccination rate (it intends to inoculate two-thirds of its population by August 9, its national day). Can the model be replicated in India? Absolutely not, says Dr Giridhara R Babu, Professor and Head, Life Course Epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India. “The plan is at one extreme, expecting the disease to be endemic. On the other extreme are countries that have shut borders not allowing anyone else and they are aiming at elimination. I don’t think extremes are the mainstays of Covid-19 response. We will have to take a middle path which is cautious as well as follows some public health measures,” he told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai than
The Biden administration may be looking to return to the JCPOA deal, but some observers feel that the recent measures applied by Washington will backfire. Former ambassador and the Middle East authority KP Fabian tells Ashwin Ahmad that the recent “taking down” of Iranian websites by the US along with the continuation of Trump’s sanctions on Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi has emboldened Iran’s hardliners and ensured Iranians will back him regardless of his standing at home. Fabian also points out that such actions will push Iran even closer to Russia and China something that was already slated to be on the anvil during the Raisi era. Such a coalition, if it does fructify, could be bad news for India especially in Afghanistan and the region. Internally, too a growing China-Iran partnership could ensure that Beijing will make sure that India does not get advantageous areas in Iran to invest.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
Apple Daily, Hong Kong’s largest-selling pro-democracy newspaper closed down on Thursday. Authorities made sure the 26-year-old tabloid couldn’t pay its journalists; many of the top editorial staff have been arrested. Its founder Jimmy Lai is already behind bars. All this under the provisions of the draconian National Security Law that was clamped by Beijing last year. The government conducted an incredibly harsh campaign against our journalists, says Mark Simon, adviser to Jimmy Lai. Xi Jinping is determined to end press freedom, Simon told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer :Manas R. Tarai
Competition is growing between India and China to win over Africa both on the economic level. The launching of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in January this year – the largest free trade area in the world – has seen both nations increase high-level visits, lines of credit and investments to the continent. However, as former ambassador and Africa expert Anil Trigunayat points out, India must remain conscious of its security concerns too especially with regard to East Africa. In an interview with Ashwin Ahmad the ambassador points out China’s strong naval presence in the Horn of Africa and its reported bid to set up naval bases in other East African countries ensures that India must also look up to step up its maritime presence preferably in concert with other countries such as France who have key interests in Africa. This is necessary if maritime lines are to be secured in the Indian Ocean.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
More than four months since the military seized power in Myanmar, there has been no let-up in protests despite a brutal crackdown by the junta. There’s a sense of loss now, a sense of shock among the people who had thought there would be continuity after Aung San Suu Kyi’s party NLD won a thumping majority in the elections last year, says Ben Dunant, Editor-at-large of 'Frontier Myanmar', a Yangon-based news magazine. The junta relies on robust support from China and Russia, and the military feels a strong entitlement to rule, he told StratNews Global. On the raft of charges against Suu Kyi, he said the military intends to get her out of the picture so that it could rule through its proxy party under a multi-party democracy. But the 'military’s thinking is flawed' as protests haven’t died down even though she has been under arrest. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer :Manas R. Tarai
The coming of the Biden administration has laid focus on the JCPOA and a possible deal emerging post the Vienna talks. Speaking to Ashwin Ahmad, Kabir Taneja, Fellow at the ORF and West Asia expert believes that both sides want a deal and that is something that is not likely to change even if a conservative candidate should emerge as president post the Iranian elections. Having said this, he points out that the US will be more than aware that any resumption of the deal could lead to increased funding to Iran’s proxies and will be looking to balance that. Coming to China, Taneja says much of the noise about the China-Iran strategic partnership has come from Tehran rather than Beijing and both sides remain wary of the other. India should learn from the Chinese example, ensure the resumption of Iranian oil, and not be in any rush to strike new deals with Tehran.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
More than four months after the military coup in Myanmar, the spiral of protests, violence, and deaths continue. The five-point consensus plan agreed upon by the 10-nation bloc ASEAN has gone nowhere with the Myanmarese junta dragging its feet over it on the pretext that conditions are not suitable. China, which has strategic and business interests in Myanmar, has been trying to legitimize the junta, says Bridget Welsh, Honorary Research Associate with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute, Malaysia. Earlier, when Aung San Suu Kyi was in prison, India had managed to find a neutral position while being a neighbor to Myanmar, she told StratNews Global. India can play a pivotal role in Myanmar as having an unstable, brutal, and coercive regime on its borders is not in India’s interest, she added. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
Israel and Israeli politics are in a state of flux as a new coalition of parties seeks to come together to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power. Though Netanyahu has time to take apart the coalition which will only be sworn in in a week’s time ‘Bibi fatigue’ may ensure that he may not be able to do so. In an interview with Ashwin Ahmad, Professor Colin Shindler emeritus professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) and author of a prize-winning book on the Israeli Right states that even if Netanyahu manages to undermine the coalition, lack of support from the public, and more importantly from President Joe Biden, suggests that he faces a tough road ahead. On the Israeli peace process, Professor Shindler contends that India with its good offices with both Israel and Palestine could certainly try and nudge the parties towards dialogue and even mediate. However, given recent events which have only exacerbated the growing social divides between Israelis and Palestinians, peace seems definitely off the table for now.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
The lab leak theory pertaining to the origin of SARS-Cov-2—the pathogen that causes Covid-19—is now gaining traction after being dismissed as a conspiracy theory last year. With fingers pointed at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology, there have been calls to probe the origin of the pandemic. China is really not interested in finding out the source, says Dr. Tun-Hou Lee, Professor of Virology (Emeritus) at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health in Boston, USA. It's pretty much a repeat of what happened with SARS in 2002-2003 and China needs to reform its top-down political system that is quite unhealthy for control of infectious diseases, he told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer:Manas R. Tarai
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s recent meetings with key officials in the United States have showcased not the strength but the extent of India-US relations. As StratNews Global Editor-in-chief Nitin Gokhale tells Ashwin Ahmad the publicising of Jaishankar’s meeting with the Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines will be viewed with keen interest as normally the US national intelligence would be expected to speak to the national security establishment in India rather than the MEA. The fact that the news of the meeting was tweeted by the External Affairs Minister himself is a sign of the growing confidence by both sides in the India-US strategic partnership. Such signals will not be lost on the world, especially China.
Podcast Producer :Manas R. Tarai
As India’s new IT rules kicked in on Wednesday, WhatsApp took the government to court. Ravi Shankar Prasad, the Union Minister of Communications and IT, tried to allay fears by saying the government is committed to ensuring the right to privacy for its citizens but it also has to maintain law and order and ensure national security. Traceability of problematic content is a contentious issue as it could mean compromising end-to-end encryption and user privacy. If you are opening an entire system of communications, you are leaving it vulnerable to hackers, says Kazim Rizvi, founding director of policy think-tank ‘The Dialogue’. There are methods that are privacy-focused, less intrusive, and can help the government meet its target without violating the privacy of users, he told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
The recent announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is good news and could perhaps pave the way for a more durable peace. Former ambassador and West Asia analyst Anil Trigunayat tells Ashwin Ahmadthat if the ceasefire holds for the next 10-12 days it could pave the way for direct negotiations. But he also adds that any lasting peace would be conditional on an alliance or a unity government between Hamas and Fatah. Without this any further negotiation on an Israel-Palestinian solution will be impossible.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
For over 14 months, Taiwan was seen as a role model when it came to containing the pandemic. That changed in the past couple of weeks, with over 1500 cases of community transmission detected. How did that happen? A combination of factors led to the surge in infections, as Professor Chunhuei Chi, Director, Center for Global Health at Oregon State University told StratNews Global. Add to that shortage of vaccines and the earlier reluctance of people to get inoculated as they saw no need. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
Given their strong relations, the recent China Bangladesh tit-for-tat was a surprise to many. The Chinese warning to Dhaka that its bid to get closer to the Quad would “substantially damage relations” was followed up by an equally strong but polite response from Bangladesh asking China to refrain from “interference” in its foreign policy. In an in-house discussion StratNewsGlobal Editor-in-chief Nitin Gokhale told Ashwin Ahmad thatBangladesh’s recent economic development over the past two years had ensured the deferential attitude Dhaka has shown towards Beijing for the past decade or so was slowly changing. Such an attitude has ramifications for China as it may now realise that its ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’ has its limits.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
China may have defended the uncontrolled re-entry of its rocket, instead blaming the West for running a ‘smear campaign’ against it but not everyone is convinced. This is irresponsible behaviour, says former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly who has logged over 500 hours in space. There are agreements that stipulate rockets of the size as big as the Chinese one must have a controlled re-entry but China designed the rocket without that capability, he told StrateNews Global. There should be consequences for not playing by the rules, added Kelly. He also talked about space junk, which he says is a bigger problem that’s getting worse. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
Some experts have suggested that a nationwide lockdown in India now may help provide some relief from the exponential surge in Covid-19 cases. But Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, former head of the Division of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), advises against any such move. I think the best solution is calibrated lockdown and micro-containment zones as a nationwide lockdown would result in massive collateral damage, he told StratNews Global. We need to decentralise our approach, use our testing resources judiciously and push for massive vaccination rollout, he added. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R.Tarai
The current spike in the number of Coronavirus cases in India can be attributed to a number of factors, including new variants of the pathogen, says Ravi Gupta, Professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge. There’s no evidence yet of any of the mutated strains being more dangerous than the original one, he told StratNews Global.
Prof. Gupta, who was named last year as one of Time Magazine’s ‘100 Most Influential People of the Year’ in recognition of his work to bring about the second-ever cure of an HIV-infected person (The London Patient), has been focused on Covid-19 of late, drawing from his research on HIV. “SARS is not like influenza which causes a short infection. SARS is more like HIV in that it can cause long-term infections because it’s able to infect different cell types, not just in the lungs but in other parts of the body,” he said. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
Japan’s decision to release treated water from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant has been met with stiff opposition from China, Taiwan and South Korea. China has even dared Japan’s leaders to drink that water if they feel it’s safe. Japan says the water will be free of radioactive materials barring small amounts of tritium (an isotope of hydrogen), extremely diluted and then gradually released into the Pacific Ocean over decades. The U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have backed Japan’s stand. Brent Heuser, Professor in the Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and Radiological Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, says what Japan has decided is reasonable and it will have no negative impact on the environment or marine life. The opposition is not based on scientific reasoning and logic and I don’t agree with it, Prof. Heuser told StratNews Global. “There’s radiation in the environment. The largest repository of uranium in the world are the oceans. There is Carbon-14 and Potassium-14 in our bodies. Every time you eat a banana, you eat radioactivity. There’s radon in soil and in building material.” For the critics, he offers an analogy. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
In the uninterrupted six decades that the People’s Action Party (PAP) has ruled Singapore, leadership succession has been carefully choreographed well in advance and executed. That plan has now gone awry, with prime minister-in-waiting Heng Swee Keat announcing that he was bowing out to make way for younger leaders. He wasn’t up to the job in the first place, says Michael Barr, who teaches international relations at Flinders University in Adelaide, Australia. That someone like him was appointed shows the ‘serious systemic problem that Singapore faces in its standard of governance’, Prof. Barr told StratNews Global. Since the PAP rule in 1959, Singapore has had just three prime ministers—Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Chok Tong, and Lee Kuan Yew’s son Lee Hsien Loong (still on the job). While it was good for Singaporeans to have long-term political stability in the early decades, the longer it has gone on, the less well it has served them, feels Prof. Barr. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
Despite four elections in two years, Israel once again seems headed for a coalition government, with no party getting a decisive mandate. After consulting 13 political parties earlier this week, President Rivilin reluctantly gave Benjamin Netanyahu the mandate to try and stitch a ruling coalition. The trial against Netanyahu, who faces charges of corruption, breach of trust, and fraud, resumed this week. He has denied the charges against him but his image has taken a beating, as Navtej Sarna, former Indian ambassador to Israel, says. Putting together a coalition will be tough but any trickery that enables Netanyahu to cling to power will be tried, Ambassador Sarna told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
Two months into the military coup in Myanmar, over 400 people have been killed in the brutal crackdown by the army that has sprayed bullets and even used airstrikes against its own citizens. It’s reprehensible but the military wants to ensure that it operates from a position of strength, says Pratap Heblikar, former Special Secretary to the Government of India. “I think the military has gone far too down the road to come back to a point where it can sit and talk to the people,” he told StratNews Global, adding, with armed ethnic groups pushing back, the military will have to fight on multiple fronts. And the threat of a civil war looms. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R.Tarai
More than six years into the war in Yemen, which has resulted in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, Saudi Arabia has come up with a proposal to end the conflict that has left millions starving and displaced. The rebel Houthis aren’t too happy with the offer that includes partly lifting the blockade on some airports and seaports. Earlier attempts at peace have failed; will it work this time around? The new administration in the United States has said that the war in Yemen should stop. Besides, it has also ended support to offensive operations by its allies in the war-torn nation. In this podcast, political analyst Dr Waiel Awwad shares his views on the timing of the peace proposal and more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
The Integrated Review released by the United Kingdom earlier this week, which sets out strategies for national security and international policies, expresses the country’s intent to pursue deeper engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Britain feels the rules of the world are increasingly set in Asia, and it wants to play a part in shaping those rules, says James Crabtree, faculty member at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. After leaving the European Union, the UK eyes Asian trade deals and is also keen on playing some role in the security decisions that are taken around Asia, Professor Crabtree told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer :Manas R. Tarai
As early as this week, China’s rubber stamp Parliament could endorse a Communist Party proposal prescribing that only patriots should govern Hong Kong, the former British colony which was handed over to China in 1997 under an agreement that the bustling global financial centre would have greater autonomy, its own judicial system and a set of personal freedoms that’s barred in mainland China. The new changes to Hong Kong’s electoral laws suggested by Beijing is the complete dismantling of whatever remains of formal democracy, says Benedict Rogers, chief executive of Hong Kong Watch. There seems to be a desire by Xi Jinping to establish total control and remove any fig leaf of democracy that previously existed, the human rights activist told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
As casualties from the junta’s crackdown against protesters rise, there has been a concerted attempt to go after online infrastructure to prevent mass mobilization on the streets. It’s a two-pronged approach, says Dr James Gomez, Regional Director of Asia Centre, a Bangkok-headquartered think tank. One approach is to throttle internet speed to frustrate users; the other is a total internet shutdown on the lines of what’s in place in Rakhine and Chin, Dr Gomez told StratNews Global. Any recognition of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party’s plans to form an ‘interim government’ to rival the junta must have a rider that it will be inclusive and have voices from other ethnic groups, he added. Listen in for more.
After Nepal’s Supreme Court reinstated the lower House of Parliament, calling its dissolution unconstitutional, what’s the way forward for Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who, amid a raging power struggle within the ruling party, recommended that the House of Representatives be dissolved? Oli will either have to resign or face Parliament where he has to prove his majority, says Yubaraj Ghimire, journalist and Editor of deshsanchar.com. Oli is under pressure from his own followers to step down and give a chance to (salvage) party unity, Ghimire told StratNews Global. One faction of the ruling NCP led by former PM Prachanda has been gunning for Oli’s ouster ever since he recommended that the House be dissolved on December 20. Listen in for more.
As expected, U.S. President Joe Biden has announced he will impose sanctions on military leaders of Myanmar who ordered the coup that deposed elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and others. Strong export controls will be imposed, he said, asking the Myanmarese military to relinquish power and release the detained civilian leadership. In his telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this week, both leaders discussed the developments in Myanmar. Even if the Biden administration steps up pressure on Delhi to join in the campaign to bring back democracy in Myanmar, India will persuade the U.S. and the West on the need for pragmatism, for a realistic policy approach on Myanmar, says Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian ambassador to Myanmar. In this podcast with StratNews Global, the Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House also spoke about what’s at the heart of India’s policy approach towards Myanmar. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
Constant squabbling over power sharing between two factions of the Nepal Communist Party, one led by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and the other by Prachanda, has pushed the country to the brink of snap polls (slated for April-May) after the President accepted Oli’s recommendation to dissolve the lower house of Parliament and go for fresh elections. Oli, who has been expelled from the party by the rival faction, is trying to seek India’s support for holding the elections, says Kamal Dev Bhattarai, a Kathmandu-based journalist writing on Nepal’s political and foreign affairs. With a caretaker government in Nepal now, Nepalese foreign minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali’s recent visit to India (to attend the sixth meeting of the India-Nepal Joint Commission on January 15) was actually aimed at enlisting India support for Oli’s move to seek a fresh mandate, Bhattarai told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R.Tarai
NEW DELHI: Having taken over the reins of a deeply polarised nation, Joe Biden has his job cut out. Tackling the pandemic that has killed over 400,000 Americans so far, the highest in any country, and the adverse economic fallout will be his immediate focus, says Nirupama Menon Rao, former Indian foreign secretary. As far as ties with India are concerned, policy makers here should not lose sleep that there has been a change in U.S. administration as the bilateral relationship is already on a forward trajectory, she told StratNews Global Editor Surya Gangadharan. The strategic value of the ties will ensure issues like Kashmir won't become obstacles; if concerns are expressed, they will be away from the public arena, said Rao, who has also served as India's ambassador to the United States.
Podcast Producer : Manas R.Tarai
In the biggest push yet to ‘Make in India’ in the defence sector, the government has cleared a ₹48,000-crore deal to buy 83 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). It’s billed as a game changer for the domestic aerospace industry, including small enterprises. In this episode of ‘Simply Nitin’, StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale gives a lowdown on more indigenous Defence projects in the offing and how India’s quest for self-reliance in this crucial sector is poised.
Indian #IAF #Tejas
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
New Delhi: The Trump administration, on January 12, declassified a ten-page document on its Indo-Pacific strategy, including 'accelerating India’s rise,' blocking China from establishing 'illiberal spheres of influence,' and maintaining 'U.S. strategic primacy' in the region. The document and strategy, approved in February 2018, has an original 'Declassify On' date of December 31, 2042.
On 'Talking Point', Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, India's Former Foreign Secretary and Admiral Arun Prakash (Retd.), India's Former Chief of the Naval Staff discuss the U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy, what policy threads the Biden administration is likely to pick up in constraining an aggressive Chinese Communist Party (CCP), how Beijing will react and what all of this means for India. The panelists are in discussion with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi.
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Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
On talking to the Taliban, Dr Paliwal argued, "it can't afford to be seen as talking to India. This is a compulsion that any Taliban leader, whether a military shura or political shura leader, sitting in Quetta, in Doha will very clearly say, that look, if we start talking to the Indians openly, we will have a lot of questions and a lot of costs from the ISI, from Pakistan. That is a compulsion that they have not really been able to liberate themselves out of. So, I would see the Taliban openly talking to India as the ultimate litmus test of their foreign policy independence. If Mullah Baradar comes and says, officially, we want to talk to India, and will be open to respecting India's red lines in Afghanistan, sensitivities, its interest, that is the day, I would say, yes, the movement has matured out of the influence that it has been under, of the Pakistani security establishment. And that is one reason, that's one thing which I don't foresee happening at least for now."
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
With just days to go before Joe Biden takes charge as U.S. President, China is on a diplomatic overreach. Foreign Minister Wang Yi began a six-day visit to four ASEAN countries earlier this week. His first stop was Myanmar, which is a neighbour to both China and India. His visit comes less than three months after India’s foreign secretary and army chief’s joint trip. In Myanmar, Wang Yi made it a point to mention he was the first foreign minister to come calling after the Myanmar elections, which shows the importance China attaches to bilateral ties.
High-level visits from India and China shows Myanmar is keen on balancing its ties with its two big neighbours, says Moe Thuzar, Coordinator, Myanmar Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. With China keen that projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor be expedited, Thuzar told StratNews Global that the situation emerging out of the socio-economic impact of the pandemic will play a key role on how big infrastructure projects China and Myanmar negotiated will proceed.
One feature emerging quite strongly in Myanmar is increasing attention paid to having more transparent and inclusive consultations to have more socially responsible investment, she added. Listen in for more.
Podcast producer: Manas R. Tarai
New Delhi: The U.S. White House declassifying the Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific is "very important and significant since it was supposed to be classified for 30 years, says Taiwan Member of Parliament Wang Ting-yu. "It reveals a layered strategy clearly" and "warns China if it dares to do something stupid(forcibly unify Taiwan), the price will be too high and they can't afford it," the co-chair of Taiwan's Foreign Affairs and National Defence Committee says, adding, "This is the first time, the United States has announced so directly and clearly that they will protect Taiwan."
On the Trump administration releasing the document with days to go for the Biden transition, he points out "This document is not a single party decision. It's bipartisan. It's the United States' national strategy. So, it won't be ended when the Trump administration finishes. This is a long term and continuing strategy for The United States and its allies." On outgoing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's decision on the weekend to drop restrictions barring U.S. and Taiwanese officials meeting, Mr Wang says, "this announcement is a kind of conclusion of the past three years and efforts."
On a step-up in relations with India, especially post the Ladakh standoff with China, the Taiwan MP says, "we appreciate and cherish the friendship," adding, "post COVID-19, we need to reorganize world manufacturing. We used to put all manufacturing in China. Just imagine Japan, Taiwan plus India, how strong, we will be...and we can invite others including Vietnam and Malaysia to join."
Podcast Producer: Manas R.Tarai
NEW DELHI: Against the backdrop of political turmoil in Nepal, a former Indian ambassador to Kathmandu has offered a grim prognosis of India's eastern neighbor. Ranjit Rae, in an exclusive conversation with StratNews Global's Parul Chandra, noted that Prime Minister Oli had dissolved Parliament simply because he had lost support within his own party and needed to save his prime ministership.
Although the dissolution has been challenged in Nepal's Supreme Court, the former diplomat questioned Oli's conduct while noting that the Nepalese Constitution has stringent norms in place before such a step can be taken. He also described as controversial the PM’s decision to announce election dates, saying it should’ve been done by the Election Commission. He also wondered why elections couldn't be held earlier.
Prolonged political instability in Nepal, he fears, will make Nepal vulnerable to forces inimical to it as well as India. He’s also worried about China’s increasing and very visible interference in Nepal’s domestic politics and particularly within the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP). His advice to Indian policymakers dealing with Nepal---factor this in policy-making and come up with a new paradigm to deal with it.
Podcast producer : Manas R.Tarai
NEW DELHI: Majority Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are pushing through what is seen as a largely unworkable ultimatum to Vice President Mike Pence, demanding he invoke the 25th amendment to remove President Donald Trump from office. This is a curtain-raiser to an expected vote to impeach the President for the second time in just over a year. "If a majority or at least a fair number of Republicans, who are still not on board and are on Trump's team, do not agree to the Democrats resolution for impeachment, then it's very likely that removal or impeachment may not actually happen," says academic and author Dr Ayesha Ray. "The House of Representatives would have to pass the impeachment motion by simple majority but the Senate would have to approve by a two-thirds majority (of those seated)," she added. If all 100 senators were seated at the time of trial, 17 Republicans would have to join Democrats to obtain a conviction. Separately, the Associate Professor at King's College, Pennsylvania's Department of Political Science pointed to constitutional experts and American media reports saying "an additional vote will be required in the Senate" to bar Trump from running for President or any other political office again. Though Dr Ray accepted there "is a very tight window (till Joe Biden's inauguration on January 20) to remove or impeach Trump," she said, "this is a President who has aided and abetted an insurrection against the United States, a direct assault on American democracy. His followers used the speech he gave at the rally outside the Capitol and followed up by launching the violent attack and invading the building. That's nothing short of an insurrection and a domestic terrorist attack." Speaking to StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi, Dr Ray also explained groups like the Boogaloo Bois, Proud Boys and QAnon as "a patchwork of far right, white supremacist, militant, extremist groups and conspiracy theorists harking back to the days of the Ku Klux Klan," though she is pointed out, "obviously, not every Trump supporter is a part of them." But, Dr Ray also warned of a "FBI report of armed group militias who are preparing to launch simultaneous attacks on the state capitols between the 16th and 20th (of January). The report says there could be a rebellion, a much larger uprising, if it's all coordinated and if there are multiple attacks. And so right now, they have to focus on preventing that." #Trump #US #QAnon
Podcast Pinvokesroducer : Manas ranjan Tarai
2020 began with China being the focus of international scrutiny and condemnation for the pandemic. By the end of the year, it claimed to have managed well enough for its economy to grow. On its international standing, China lost a lot of ground, says Jorge Guajardo, who has served six years in Beijing as Mexico’s Ambassador. China is seen for what it is—a country that doesn’t respect truth, a country that doesn’t respect international agreements and it doesn’t have a long history of putting common good ahead of its own, Guajardo, who’s now a senior director at McLarty Associates, told StratNews Global. Chinese leaders invoke nationalism to hide lack of democracy and authoritarian rule; Xi Jinping is doing a lot of damage to China’s image in the long term, he added. In this podcast, Ambassador Guajardo also shared his views on the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s vaccine diplomacy and how the United States under Joe Biden’s presidency would deal with the Communist state. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
After the detection of a highly infectious strain of the Coronavirus in the UK, many countries have suspended flight services to and from Britain. This strain is said to be 50 to 70 per cent more infectious than the earlier ones and there have been 17 structural changes to the virus, which could infect children who were generally not affected till now, says Dr K Srinath Reddy, President, Public Health Foundation of India. It won’t affect the efficacy of vaccines as those being produced now largely target the spike protein of the virus; so as long as the virus has spike protein, even with minor alterations, it shouldn’t be a problem, he told StratNews Global. Vaccinating people against Covid-19 in India will be a challenge as this will be for the first time that adult vaccination will be carried out in such a massive scale, he added. While choosing a vaccine, what are the factors that should be kept in mind? Efficacy and safety come first, then logistics and, finally, the cost, said Dr Reddy. Vaccines that have severe cold chain requirements may not work well in India where logistics could be an issue in vast areas of the country, he added. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer : Manas R.Tarai
The visit of British foreign secretary Dominic Raab to India should be seen as a preparatory one in the run-up to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s India trip in January next year, says Ruchi Ghanashyam, former Indian high commissioner to the United Kingdom. Johnson will be the chief guest at the Republic Day parade next year; the last British PM who was extended the honour was John Major in 1993. As India and the UK seek to broaden bilateral ties and collaboration post-Brexit, the trade would be a key area, High Commissioner Ghanashyam told StratNews Global. Once Brexit happens, there will be stability and a more level playing field for countries outside the EU to trade with the UK, she added. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai
Chinese President Xi Jinping may say his country is distributing Coronavirus vaccines for ‘global good’ but that’s part of an image repair exercise. Just like the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s vaccine diplomacy is not altruism but driven by strong commercial interests, says Jacob Mardell, an analyst at the Mercator Institute of China Studies in Berlin. The attempt to present itself as a charitable actor might be disrupted by commercial interests, he told StratNews Global. “It’s actually funny how Xi Jinping added to the global good rhetoric by acknowledging that the vaccine had a price tag attached.” Listen in for more.
Indian #China #Jinping
Podcast Producer : Manas R.Tarai
He’s said it before and now U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has reiterated that a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is the best way to stave off a nuclear race in West Asia. Biden wants to go back to something that looks like a diplomatic resolution, says Alex Vatanka, Director of Iran Program at Middle East Institute. He (Biden) knows it’s better to not ask too much from Iran in the beginning but to focus on the nuclear issue first and, once trust is developed, expand the scope of the discussions, Vatanka told StratNews Global.
The Trump administration had pulled out of the agreement in 2018 and had launched a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran. That included crippling sanctions and offensive action such as the killing of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian general, who was hit by a U.S. drone in January this year. Last week, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, believed by the West to be the architect of Iran’s nuclear programme, was killed. Iran has pointed fingers at Israel and has vowed to take revenge. “Most of it is posturing. Iranians will not attack Israel, certainly not with missiles soon,” according to Vatanka.
But will Iran blink first so far as the nuclear deal is concerned? “Russia and China are encouraging Iran not to blink first because they don’t want to see America back in Iran. So they are interested parties in this fight telling Iran—don’t cave in to American pressure, we will support you, buy enough oil, trade with you, invest in your economy and support you diplomatically at places like the United Nations,” said Vatanka. Listen in for more.
Podcast Producer: Manas Tarai
Fathom this: the U.S. appoints a special coordinator for Tibet last month, a post that lay vacant for long. It invites Sikyong Lobsang Sangay to the State department first and then to the White House annexe. All this towards the fag end of the Trump administration. What does it signify? As he leaves the White House, Donald Trump wants to leave his name on a policy that he has not implemented during the four years he was president, says author, historian and noted Tibetologist Claude Arpi. Last week, a U.S. State Department report mentioned Tibet as being under Chinese military occupation since the 1950s. “It is part of a policy paper, not part of official U.S. policy. While leaving the presidency, Trump wants to leave his imprint and in a way influence the next administration,” Arpi told StratNews Global. India should have a coordinated Tibet policy, he said, adding that “India should put pressure on China to acknowledge India’s deep links with Tibet.” Listen in for more.
Indian #US #Tibet
Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai
With not much headway in intra-Afghan talks and a new administration due to take charge in Washington, D.C., will there be a change in the U.S. approach? In the short-term, there is likely to be a continuum, says Shuja Nawaz, Distinguished Fellow at Atlantic Council. “The medium and long term will be determined by the ability of the United States to put together a new plan with its coalition partners on future engagement with Afghanistan and the region. And also on the success of any move within the U.S. to have a broader regional engagement so that it is not solely based on Afghanistan,” he told StratNews Global. The onus will be the Afghan government to successfully complete intra-Afghan talks with the Taliban and also on Pakistan to help deliver some kind of a cessation of hostilities in Afghanistan, he added. Listen in for more.
Indian #US #Afghanistan
Podcast Producer : Manas Tarai
On Friday, the Malaysian government will table the annual budget with an overarching focus on rebuilding lives, livelihoods and the economy that have taken a pounding due to the pandemic. The government has a wafer-thin majority in Parliament and there has been a recent unsuccessful attempt to unseat Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. 25 MPs have given no-confidence motions against the administration as well. “Yassin is in a delicate position but I think we can expect the budget to be passed,” Dr Francis Hutchinson, Coordinator of the Malaysia Studies Programme at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. These motions do pose a risk to stability but Yassin has a number of things going for him, Dr Hutchinson told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.
Indian #Singapore #singapore
Podcast producer : Manas Tarai
A week to go before U.S. votes in the presidential elections and polls show Joe Biden in the lead. Indian Americans make up about 1 per cent of the electorate but could play a key role in some swing states where they have a sizeable presence. What are the key issues on their minds? Healthcare, economy and racism, Prof. Sumit Ganguly of Indiana University, Bloomington, told StratNews Global, quoting a recent survey. Venktesh Shukla, Managing Director, Monta Vista Capital & Former Chair of TiE Global and TiE Silicon Valley, who joined in the conversation from California, was of the view that it’s also about Trump’s inconsistent behaviour and the “sheer incompetence” with which he has handled the fallout of the pandemic. So who would be a better President from an Indian perspective? Biden, say Prof. Ganguly and Mr Shukla. For more, listen in.
Podcast Producer : Manas Tarai
If China's foreign minister visited five of the 10 ASEAN countries earlier this month, Japan's new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, chose two countries in the same region—Vietnam and Indonesia—this week for his first official trip abroad. What explains the rush?
In this exclusive podcast Dr Prabir De, professor of the ASEAN Centre at the RIS think tank, tells StratNews Global that like China, Japan has a lot of business interests in southeast Asia, necessitating a counter-visit. Several ASEAN countries contribute goods and services to China but with Covid-19 disrupting supply chains, both parties have taken a hit. China is now reaching out to the region, promising free Covid vaccines and trying to wean the bloc away from rivals Japan and the United States.
As Dr. De notes, Asean needs all three players and, therefore, does a fine balancing act. He also talked about Australia joining the Malabar exercise, saying it sends out a signal of convergence and has a strong economic dimension as well. For more listen in.
Podcast Producer:Manas Tarai
Among the targets of the global surveillance mounted by the Chinese firm Zhenhua Data are over 10,000 Indians, ranging from top
politicians, business leaders, security mandarins etc. It’s a wake-up call for a country like India that doesn’t have a dedicated cyber security law, says Dr Pavan Duggal, Chairman of the International Commission on Cyber Security Law.
What Zhenhua has done is a sophisticated form of data espionage, he told StratNews Global, adding that the ‘leaky digital ecosystem' in
India has been infiltrated by Chinese apps.Indians tend to ‘vomit’ a lot of information about their personal, professional and social lives without even thinking how this could impact their digital present and digital future, said the cyber security expert.
He shared a note of caution: ‘People should realize that they are the custodians of their own data; the government has a limited enabling role but cyber hygiene needs to be begin at home’.
Indian defence companies are upbeat on Ministry of Defence's recent announcement listing out a number of defence weapons and platforms that would be barred from being imported from abroad. Many of them see this as a final step in the incremental defence reforms that have been undertaken by the Modi government. Speaking to StartNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, two leading stalwarts of Indian defence industry, JD Patil of L&T and Ashok Atluri of Zen Technologies, however cautioned against excessive euphoria and pointed out that the the intent needs to be translated into action, meaning the local companies should get orders from the ministry so that they can start manufacturing and delivering the requirements that the armed forces have.
Podcast Producer : Manas Tarai
Monday morning blues in Hong Kong were shattered as news came it that media baron Jimmy Lai had been arrested, the first crackdown on the Press since the draconian National Security Law was imposed on June 30. The police arrived at the home of Lai, a vocal critic of Beijing's aggressive policies, in the morning, searched it for a couple of hours and led him away, handcuffed, senior media executive of Daily Apple, Mark Simon, told StratNews Global. Lai, a votary of democracy and human rights, was next taken to Daily Apple’s office. The office was searched from “top to bottom for about six hours” and the CEO was also taken into custody along with some other members of the senior management. All this while, Lai was handcuffed and asked silly questions like---“Do you recognise this notebook?” Lai has been arrested three times before but Monday's was a major escalation, said Simon. “They are trying to send Hong Kong the message that if you don’t align with us, this is how we are going to deal with you”.
Interviewer : Subrat Nanda
Interviewee : Mark Simon
Podcast Producer : Manas Tarai
Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa says he’s “happy and satisfied” with the results of the parliamentary elections in which people have voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Rajapaksas-led (elder brother and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa is now Prime Minister) Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna(SLPP) party. The Sri Lankan president expressed these sentiments during a brief conversation with StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin Gokhale after the results came out with the SLPP winning 145 seats in the 225-member Parliament. In this podcast with Deputy Editor Parul Chandra, Gokhale, who’s been a long-time Sri Lanka watcher, says though the party fell short of the two-thirds majority, its allies will bridge the shortfall. As for the Rajapaksas oft-expressed wish to do away with the 19th amendment which they feel curbs presidential powers, Gokhale says it will go now that the SLPP has the numbers in Parliament. Listen to this podcast for more.
Interviewer : Parul Chandra
Interviewee : Nitin Gokhale
Podcast Producer : Manas Tarai