Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy: Recent Episodes
Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy
Contours is the bi-weekly podcast series of Newlines Institute for Strategy & Policy. It's a fireside chat type of conversation with some of the brightest minds in the geopolitical and foreign policy space. In each episode of Contours we try to unpack for our listeners the complex issues that challenge our national and (by extension) international security. The discussions are geared toward advancing the cause of human security and stabilization and development on our planet.
Newlines Institute focuses on issues at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy and global geopolitics with a specialization in Muslim states and societies.
For more on Newlines Institute, please visit our website: www.newlinesinstitute.org
This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s founding. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.
This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251003/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region.In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive.In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption.Read the Q4 Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q4-2025-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Contours Podcast, host Robert Kremzner sits down with John Nagl and Jonathan Schroden, experts in irregular warfare and the American experience in Afghanistan. Together, they go over the strategic, operational, and tactical failure of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, how the Afghanistan withdrawal can inform future withdrawals, and President Donald Trump’s call to re-occupy the Bagram Airbase.
This week, Israel initiated its full ground invasion of Gaza City, while the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states warned they may reconsider their diplomatic ties with Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework deal regarding the sale of Chinese social media app TikTok, extending its deadline, while China ordered its companies to stop buying microchips from U.S. chipmaker Nvidia. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump pressured European nations to suspend all energy imports from Russia, while Polish defense officials announced a joint cooperation initiative with Ukraine on countering drone attacks following last week’s incursion by Russian drones into Polish airspace. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve announced it would be cutting interest rates, with more cuts expected before the end of the year.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250919/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Andrew P. Miller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP) and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. They discuss his experience shaping U.S. policy towards Israel/Palestine, including sanctions targeting perpetrators of violence in the West Bank, regional diplomacy, and the evolving role of U.S. engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially concerning Israel’s war in Gaza.
This week, in the wake of an Israeli air attack targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar, Doha called for an emergency summit to convene next week. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, NATO forces shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace from Ukraine, with Poland subsequently triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultation process. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that the EU pressure Russia by imposing tariffs on China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency apprehended 300 South Korean workers in Georgia, most of whom have since left the United States. In the U.S., conservative media personality and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at an event in Utah.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250912/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines’ own Emily Prey sits down with renowned international lawyers Louise Arimatsu and Christine Chinkin, authors of the New Lines report “A Gendered Analysis of Aggression and International Law.” Among other topics, their discussion touches on how gender is used to justify aggression; the gaps in international law regarding slow, non-spectacular violence; and how a gender lens can help with atrocity prevention. Read the report here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/gender/a-gendered-analysis-of-aggression-and-international-law/
This week, China hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum, attended by 20 foreign leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and representatives of Ukraine’s allies in a new round of discussions on Ukrainian security guarantees, while U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats of sanctions against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel’s campaign against Gaza City intensified while its Cabinet convened to discuss a proposal to further annex West Bank territory. In the Caribbean Sea, the U.S. launched a military strike against a vessel linked to drug smugglers who the Trump administration claim are operating under Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s orders.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250905/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the New Lines Countours podcast, Director Caroline Rose sits down with New Lines Senior Fellow Faysal Itani to discuss the potential withdrawal of the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL). Together, they discuss the role that UNIFIL has played over the previous decades, the challenges that the interim force faces, and what the Lebanese security landscape may look like going forward.
In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines Associate Analyst Amari Jones sits down with Nyamal Tutdeal, a globally recognized South Sudanese-Ethiopian-American peace architect who has transformed conflict into healing through her blend of academic excellence and ancestral wisdom. Together, they explore the intersection of identity, power, and peacebuilding, and how Nyamal’s unique approach is reshaping global security and the role of women in post-conflict societies.
This week in the Middle East, France, Germany, and the U.K. triggered a mechanism to reimpose sanctions against Iran following Tehran’s noncompliance with nuclear inspections, while Israel intensified shelling in Gaza City ahead of its anticipated occupation. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump played host to his South Korean counterpart at the White House, while Seoul called for strengthening ties with China. In Ukraine, Russian forces pushed farther into Ukrainian territory and continued their bombing campaign as the U.S. weighed security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. tariffs of 50% on Indian imports went into effect, while Mexico announced plans to raise tariffs on China.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250829/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Contours Lebanese Logic Podcast, host Faysal Itani sits down with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dania Arayssi. Together, they discuss the recent effort by the Lebanese government and military to disarm Hezbollah, including how likely the effort is to succeed, and what the future landscape of power looks like in the country.
In this episode of Strategic Crossroads, host Zara Farouk sits down with journalist and analyst Wladimir van Wilgenburg to unpack the landmark March agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government. Together they explore what this deal means for Kurdish self-rule, the future of gender parity in governance, and the mounting pressures on Syrian minority communities such as the Druze.The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of New Lines Institute.
This week, U.S. President Donald Trump held meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and key European leaders to advance a peace deal with Russia, while Russian attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travelled to India for trade talks as bilateral relations thawed, while Trump threatened to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports within the coming week. In the Middle East, Israeli forces captured the outskirts of Gaza City as the campaign to fully occupy the city began, while Iran held its first naval drills since its June war with Israel.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250822/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, U.S. President Donald Trump prepared for his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, holding calls with European leaders, and warning that Russia may face severe consequences if negotiations falter. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China have agreed to extend the deadline for the mutual reimposition of tariffs by another 90 days as negotiations continue. Beijing has insisted the talks must address U.S. removal of advanced tech export controls. In the Middle East, Israel continued preparations to launch a campaign to occupy Gaza while Iran expressed willingness to consider resuming nuclear negotiations with the U.S. under certain conditions.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250815/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose strong economic sanctions against Russia ahead of an expected meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Middle East, Israel’s State Security Cabinet approved a plan by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to occupy the whole of the Gaza Strip, while the U.S. is set to take over aid operations in the territory. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for its purchases of Russian oil, while Thailand and Cambodia signed a ceasefire deal. In global trade, reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners went into effect, with threats of additional tariffs remaining on several key partners, including the European Union.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250808/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Shadin Nassar and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff from the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America to discuss the impacts of Israel’s occupation and settlement enterprise on Palestinian Christians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and how that has contributed to the exodus of the community from the region.
This week, several countries, including Canada, India, and other major economies, continued to negotiate with the U.S. ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline to make a trade deal, as the European Union and Asian nations including South Korea reached agreements. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with a Chinese delegation in Stockholm, where both sides agreed to extend bilateral trade negotiations. In the Middle East, several countries have announced they would recognize Palestine as a state in the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in September, while the U.S. imposed additional sanctions targeting Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump reduced the timeline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire from 50 to 10 days, while the Ukrainian parliament passed legislation restoring the independence of anti-corruption bodies after facing international and domestic backlash.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250801/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the United States approved a new weapons package for Ukraine, while representatives from Russian and Ukraine agreed to a new round of prisoner exchanges. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. signed new trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, while EU representatives met with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid simmering trade tensions. In the Middle East, EU and Iranian officials discussed recent sanctions threats against Tehran, while U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to discuss the release of hostages from Hamas.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=27490&action=editMarxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it does not engage in ceasefire talks with Ukraine, while U.S. officials met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv to discuss the delivery of U.S. weapons. In the Indo-Pacific, Australia and China hailed a reset in their trade relations following Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and details emerged of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s planned visit to Paraguay next month, which may include a stop in the United States. In the Middle East, Israeli strikes targeted the Syrian Ministry of Defense, while the Iranian parliament issued a statement against resuming nuclear talks with the U.S. until unspecified conditions are met.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250718/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week in the Middle East, Iran questioned cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and reportedly received a delivery of Chinese air defense systems, while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz unveiled plans to relocate Gazans to third countries. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed frustration at Russia’s lack of meaningful ceasefire efforts and renewed U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine, while both the U.S. Congress and the EU are preparing new sanctions against Moscow. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump renewed his threats of tariffs against ASEAN countries, plus Japan and South Korea. He further threatened to levy additional tariffs against Brazil and on all copper exports to the U.S. and extended the deadline for all trade negotiations to Aug. 1.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250711/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The third quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the ripple effects of military escalation between Israel and Iran, as well as U.S. intervention, while regional states will seek to push for a diplomatic agreement over Iran’s nuclear program.Read the full Q3 Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q3-2025-forecast/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, Israel escalated its military campaign against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, while the U.S. weighed potential involvement in the conflict. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan added Chinese companies to its export blacklist, limiting their access to advanced microchips, while concerns lingered over the impact of Chinese rare earth elements export curbs despite last week’s U.S./China trade agreement. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian operations halted Russian advances on Sumy, while leaders of the G7 discussed new sanctions against Russia.Read the Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-202506020/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Bridging the Gap, New Lines Middle East Analyst Rachel Nelson sits down with New Lines Senior Director Dr. Kamran Bokhari and New Lines Director of the Crime-Conflict Nexus and Military Withdrawals portfolios Caroline Rose to discuss the breakout of war between Israel and Iran and its regional implications.
This week in the Middle East, Israel carried out unilateral strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and killed top Iranian military officials, leading to Iranian retaliation with drone strikes against Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China both confirmed they reached a trade deal framework involving a resumption of rare earth elements exports and a reduction in tariffs, while newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung conducted diplomatic outreach to the U.S. and China. In Ukraine, Russia launched some of the most extensive missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities since the start of the war, while the European Commission proposed a new round of sanctions against Moscow. In the U.S., the National Guard and Marines were deployed to Los Angeles amid ongoing protests over an immigration crackdown.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-202506013/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad podcast series, New Lines Senior Director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Senior Resident Fellow Murad Batal Shishani to analyze the opportunities and challenges for Syria after President Donald Trump’s meeting with interim Syrian President Ahmad Al Sharaa. Shishani also provides a detailed debrief on his recent trip to Syria; assesses the progress of post-Assad Syrian society, politics, and security dynamics; and explains where Sharaa might take Syria next.
This week, Ukraine conducted multiple sabotage operations across Russia, including attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and infrastructure, while representatives from both countries agreed on a prisoner exchange. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s slow resumption of rare earth elements exports has led industries to warn of potential shutdowns. U.S.-China trade negotiations continued, and the U.S. doubled tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports. In the Middle East, Iran rejected U.S. terms for a nuclear deal, while Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to assist in negotiations during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250606/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that there was no legal basis under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act for U.S. President Donald Trump to impose global tariffs, complicating the U.S.’s trade negotiations. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced of the U.S. would begin revoking Chinese student visas, while Trump ordered the suspension of exports of jet engines and semiconductors to China. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia prepared for an offensive in Sumy, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed another meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials on June 2. In the Middle East, efforts at another Gaza ceasefire stalled, while the U.S. and Iran continued their nuclear negotiations over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250530/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast, host Rachel Nelson sits down with Zara Farouk, a Middle East analyst at New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, to discuss the recent escalation of hostilities between India and Pakistan, the past and present relationship between India and Israel, and the similarities of India's and Israel’s occupations in Kashmir and the occupied Palestinian territories.
This week, Israel intensified its military campaign in Gaza as the U.K., EU, and Canada threatened economic restrictions against Israel. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the EU and U.K. issued new sanctions against Russia, while U.S. President Donald Trump announced the U.S. would scale back mediation efforts following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Indo-Pacific, the EU proposed tariffs on China in alignment with Washington, while China expressed disapproval of U.S. plans to build a new missile defense system and to ban the use of Chinese microchips in the U.S.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250523/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of New Lines Institute’s "Lebanese Logic" podcast, Resident Senior Fellow Faysal Itani and Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dania Arayssi discuss ways the United States can support Lebanon’s people and institutions without giving Hezbollah and the country’s corrupt oligarchy a boost.
On his diplomatic tour of the Middle East’s Gulf region this week, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. will lift sanctions against Syria. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, meanwhile, presented Iran with a written proposal for a nuclear deal. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not show up to planned negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Istanbul, though diplomacy was held among officials from Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and Türkiye. The U.S. and China agreed to pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days and remove key export and import bans as trade negotiations progress, and China pledged increased investment to Latin American countries.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250516/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the conflict between India and Pakistan escalated with India launching multiple military strikes against its neighbor. Meanwhile, the U.S. agreed to hold high-level trade talks with China for the first time this weekend in Geneva. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for Moscow’s Victory Day parade, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed establishing a demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine. In the Middle East, the U.S. agreed to a cease-fire with Yemen’s al-Houthi forces after a successful mediation by Oman as it plans to continue nuclear negotiations with Iran this weekend. Israel called up reservists to prepare for its incursion into Gaza. The U.K. was the first country to conclude a trade deal with the U.S., securing a reduction in tariffs on the hardest hit sectors of steel and cars.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250509/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the U.S. and Ukraine signed a critical minerals deal after months of tense negotiations, while Russia proposed a ceasefire from May 8 to 10. In the Indo-Pacific, effects of the U.S.-China trade dispute are being felt across export sectors, while Pakistan warned of imminent attacks from India following last week’s mass shooting in Kashmir. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran are set to continue nuclear negotiations following recent progress in talks, while British and American forces launched new airstrikes against al-Houthi rebel targets in Yemen.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250502/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast series, New Lines’ own Rachel Nelson hosts Andrey X, an independent reporter and human rights advocate documenting Israeli settler violence in the West Bank. Together, they discuss Andrey’s own move from Russia to live in Palestine, the developing volatile situation for Palestinians in the West Bank, and how the international community can respond to the crisis.
This week, the U.S. submitted a proposal to end the war in Ukraine that was swiftly rejected by Kyiv, and the Russian military continued its bombardment of Ukrainian cities. In the Indo-Pacific, Beijing denied assertions by the Trump administration that trade negotiations were ongoing, calling for the U.S. to remove its tariffs first, while South Korean companies were warned by Beijing not to sell products containing Chinese critical materials to the United States. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran agreed to continue nuclear negotiations following last weekend’s meeting, while Egypt and Qatar presented a plan for a five-year truce for the war in Gaza, as Israeli operations continued in the territory. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250425/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy is launching a new podcast series, “Lebanese Logic,” hosted by the center’s Resident Senior Fellow Faysal Itani. The series focuses on Lebanon’s political dynamics the future of Hezbollah, and important role in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In this inaugural episode, Itani and New Lines Institute Senior Director Nicholas A. Heras forecast Lebanon’s politics and foreign policy in the context of the rapidly shifting regional developments in the Middle East.
This week, global trade tensions and market uncertainty persisted despite the U.S. pause on reciprocal tariffs, while a first round of targeted countries reached out to Washington. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on a multistage tour of Southeast Asia, signing cooperation deals with the leaders of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Bilateral trade escalations continued with the U.S., which imposed new sanctions on China. In the Middle East, U.S. and Iranian officials continued direct negotiations on a nuclear deal, and Israel announced its troops would remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria “indefinitely.” U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials met in Paris to discuss ongoing peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the U.S. extended sanctions on Russian ships and Russia continued bombing Ukrainian cities.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250418/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement sent global markets tumbling, he announced a 90-day pause on the levies for countries that did not retaliate, reducing tariffs to 10% for all imports. The U.S., however, increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to raise its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% and to engage in strong outreach to the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Australia. In Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian forces launched new offensives while officials from the U.S. and Russia met in Istanbul for normalization talks and separately conducted a prisoner swap. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran agreed to conduct a first round of negotiations Saturday in Oman on a nuclear deal, while Israel and Türkiye discussed deconfliction of their operations in Syria.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250411/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, President Donald Trump’s unveiling of reciprocal tariffs, including ones targeting China, Taiwan, the EU, and Southeast Asia, sent global markets falling and drew strong worldwide condemnation. Washington expressed frustration at Moscow’s unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine, as both Congress and the White House proposed sanctions and tariffs against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel deployed additional troops to Gaza, while the U.S. deployed a second aircraft carrier near Iran and renewed its threats to bomb Iran if it refuses to discuss a nuclear deal. In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan and struck an agreement to deepen economic ties with South Korea and Japan.
The second quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the reverberations of U.S. policy shifts initiated by President Donald Trump’s administration in the first quarter, primarily related to global trade issues and its changing posture to hotspots around the world.Read the full 2025 Q2 Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q2-2025-forecast/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the Hamas/Israel ceasefire collapsed after Israeli forces launched an air and ground assault in Gaza, while the U.S. Navy engaged al-Houthi targets in Yemen. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, while Russian missile and drone attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, reports emerged that the U.S. Department of Energy designated South Korea as a “sensitive country,” potentially hindering its technology cooperation with the U.S., while the Trump administration tightened sanctions against Chinese importers of Iranian oil.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250321/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the U.S. agreed to a resumption of Ukrainian military and intelligence aid as a 30-day cease-fire was discussed with Ukraine and Russia. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. went into effect, and the Taiwanese government announced a series of measures designed to curb Chinese espionage and influence operations. In the Middle East, the U.S. pushed for an extension of Phase I negotiations between Israel and Gaza, while Israeli and Lebanese officials began discussions over the normalization of bilateral relations. In global trade, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports, prompting strong reactions and announcements of retaliation from Canada and the EU.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250314/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Caroline Rose and Tammy Palacios, senior analyst of New Lines' Priority Sustainable Counterterrorism portfolio, to discuss the history of the French involvement in the Sahel, the security implications of the French departure from the region, and how it affects U.S. security.
This week, the United States suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while European leaders proposed initiatives on Ukrainian and European security. In the Indo-Pacific, China announced it will impose retaliatory tariffs of 15% on key U.S. agricultural imports, and Taiwan announced it will increase its investment in the U.S. semiconductor industry. In the Middle East, Israel cut off humanitarian aid into Gaza, while the U.S. and Arab states contended over a Gaza reconstruction plan. President Donald Trump imposed his previously delayed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico before making exemptions for car imports following a steep drop in the U.S. stock market.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250307/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy is proud to initiate a special new podcast series, “Bridging the Gap: Conversations on Israel and Palestine.” This series is led by Rachel Nelson, the Analyst in the Middle East Center, and will provide nuanced, detailed, and on-the-ground perspectives on the situation in Israel and Palestine. In this episode, Rachel sits down with Destiny Magnett, the Programs and Outreach Manager at Churches for Middle East Peace, to discuss Christian Zionism, its current manifestations, and the work that Destiny and CMEP do to foster and advocate for peace in Israel and Palestine.
This week, the United States conducted Ukraine-related diplomacy with Russia, France, and the U.K., while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Washington to finalize a critical minerals deal. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan is investigating a Chinese ship’s possible role in recent damage to one of its undersea cables, while the Trump administration unveiled sanctions against entities in the Chinese oil industry. In the Middle East, the first phase of hostage and prisoner swaps between Hamas and Israel was completed, and Israel deployed tanks into the West Bank. Global trade escalations continued as U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will impose 25% tariffs on EU imports, drawing promises of retaliation from the bloc, and that he will press ahead with tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China on March 4.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250228/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Voice of America (VOA) reporter Sirwan Kajjo to assess how the emerging regime in Damascus will engage with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in Northeast Syria. Sirwan, a well-known Syrian-American intellectual and journalist, works for the Extremism Watch Desk at VOA where he focuses on Islamic militancy, extremism, and conflict in the Middle East and beyond that region. Heras and Kajjo also discuss how the emerging government in Damascus will lead the process of creating a post-Assad order and whether that order can successfully incorporate all the country’s different communities.
This week, U.S. and Russian officials met in Riyadh without any Ukrainian representation to discuss first steps for a Ukraine cease-fire, while U.S. President Donald Trump caused a diplomatic stir by calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator.” In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas continued their prisoner exchanges and agreed to commence with the second phase of their cease-fire agreement by the end of the week, while regional states discussed alternative plans for the future of Gaza. In the Indo-Pacific, China filed official complaints with the World Trade Organization against U.S. tariffs, as Trump suggested he would expand tariffs to include 25% taxes on all imports of automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical products.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250221/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the U.S. floated the conditions for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as President Donald Trump held phone calls with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In the Middle East, Trump threatened Hamas if the group did not surrender all its hostages as scheduled and further threatened to cut off aid for Jordan and Egypt if they did not agree to take in Palestinian refugees from Gaza. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s tariffs on select U.S. imports went into effect, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Trump in Washington. Trump announced he would impose 25% tariffs on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum, drawing strong reactions globally.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250214/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of Gendering Geopolitics, New Lines’ own Emily Prey sits down with Rajaa Altalli, the co-founder of the Center for Civil Society and Democracy and member of the Syrian Women’s Advisory Board for the U.N. Special Envoy for Syria. Together, they discuss the potential roles that women should play in Syria's politics moving forward, the process of reconciliation in the country, and need for the establishment of representative democracy in the post-Assad era.
This week, President Donald Trump suggested the United States could take ownership of Gaza during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while negotiations continued in Doha on the implementation of the next phase of Israel’s cease-fire deal with Hamas. In the Indo-Pacific, China announced several retaliatory measures following Trump’s implementation of 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports. In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would be willing to meet directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the White House announced preparations to send a delegation to Kyiv. Trump postponed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada by one month, following assurances from both countries they would commit more resources to monitor their respective borders.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250207/
This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas continued to conduct prisoner exchanges while Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their cease-fire. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump announced possible tariffs on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, and the emergence of a new Chinese AI model sent shocks through the U.S. tech and financial sectors. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU discussed resuming Russian natural gas imports in exchange for a cease-fire in Ukraine, while Latvia reported another incident of damage to underwater internet cables in the Baltic Sea.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250131/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff to analyze how humanitarian and economic rehabilitation efforts can support peacebuilding in Syria. Sasha is a Nonresident Fellow with the Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute who has a granular and nuanced perspective on Syria that comes from his oversight over targeted civil society capacity building and humanitarian assistance programs throughout Syria. He is also currently the Middle East and North Africa Program Director for the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, and a Security Fellow at the Truman National Security Project. Heras and Ghosh-Siminoff also assess what should be the priorities for international organizations looking to support the rehabilitation of Syria.
After taking office Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed several executive orders addressing domestic policy issues and vowed to place tariffs on goods from China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with foreign ministers from the Quad countries, and Trump threatened Russia with further sanctions if it refused to negotiate over Ukraine. In the Middle East, prisoner exchanges continued between Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces, and the U.S. denied Israel’s request to postpone its withdrawal from Lebanon.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250124/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy is proud to initiate a special new podcast series “Bridging the Gap: Conversations on Israel and Palestine.” This series is led by Rachel Nelson, the Analyst in the Middle East Center, and will provide nuanced, detailed, and on-the-ground perspectives on the situation in Israel and Palestine. In this inaugural episode, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Rachel Nelson to learn more about her extensive experience in the West Bank and to gain her analysis on the metastasizing conflict there. Heras and Nelson also explore why the tensions between the expanding Israeli settler community and the local Palestinian population in the West Bank could devolve into a larger war that would end the prospects for the Two State Solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
This week, Hamas and Israel tentatively agreed to a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza, while Israel continued its operations in the West Bank and in Lebanon. Russia and Iran made plans to sign a new strategic partnership agreement, while NATO launched its new naval patrolling mission in the Baltic Sea. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China exchanged new rounds of trade sanctions and restrictions, and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol was arrested in his compound after a week-long standoff with authorities.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here:https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250117/
In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Dr. Sultan Alamer to assess how the new governing authorities in Damascus can reimagine Syrian nationalism after Assad and build an inclusive state for all Syrians. Dr. Alamer is a Resident Senior Fellow with the Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute, and a senior member of the editorial committee of Alpheratz, an Arabic language magazine. He is also a Postdoctoral Fellow at Harvard University’s Center of Middle East Studies, an executive committee member of the Arab Political Science Network, and a Bucerius Fellow at the Zeit-Stiftung Ebling und Gerd Bucerius. Heras and Dr. Alamer analyze the potential scenarios where the successful Syrian revolution could result in new mass movements for political reform, or even revolution, in other states in the wider Middle East.
This week, Ukrainian forces initiated new offensive operations in Russia’s Kursk region while NATO ships deployed to the Baltic Sea to protect critical infrastructure from suspected Russian sabotage attempts. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan is investigating a Chinese vessel’s suspected role in damage to undersea internet cables, while the U.S. Treasury announced further sanctions against Chinese tech companies. In the Middle East, Hamas listed hostages it would be willing to release, while the UAE proposed a framework for the governance in Gaza in a post-conflict scenario.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250110/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode of the Contours Podcast, New Lines Director of the Strategic Blindspots portfolio Caroline Rose sits down with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dr. Karam Shaar and U.S. Department of State counter-narcotics expert Jonathan Earles. Together, they discuss how the fall of Assad’s Syria may affect the captagon trade, including its production and state-sponsored distribution, and the demand for the drug in the region.
2025 will be headlined by the domestic and global impact of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. Key diplomatic and security shifts will occur in the Russia/Ukraine conflict as well as in the Middle East, while geopolitical tensions between the United States and China will intensify, both bilaterally and in the wider Indo-Pacific.Read the Annual Forecast here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/2025-annual-forecast/
In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Dr. Kamran Bokhari to develop a strategic forecast for Syria in the upcoming year. Dr. Bokhari is a Senior Director at the Institute who is a specialist on Eurasian politics with a particular focus on the Middle East with over three decades experience in the intelligence analysis community providing strategic assessments on global events. A distinguished professor at the Institute’s M.A. in Strategy and Policy program, Dr. Bokhari also teaches a course on Central Asia at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program. Heras and Dr. Bokhari investigate the key dynamics that will shape post-Assad Syria in 2025, and present especially important context on events in Syria that are not being widely discussed that will be essential to understanding the trajectory of the country.
This week, Western countries have organized diplomatic outreach to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz expressed hope for a potential cease-fire with Hamas. In the Indo-Pacific, members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue finalized plans to hold joint military exercises for the first time, while the U.S. stated it would take necessary steps to prevent further coercive action from China following the latter’s recent critical minerals ban. In Russia, Ukrainian agents assassinated a top Russian general in Moscow, and North Korean troops participated in intense fighting in Russia’s Kursk region.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241220/
In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Nidal Betare to assess the potential for a Syrian-led, inclusive process of democracy-building in post-Assad Syria. Betare is a Palestinian-American who was born and raised in Syria, and a well-known expert on civil society and the Syrian political opposition. They engage on a wide-ranging discussion on how Syrian civil society can lead its country to engage in a process of reconciliation across Syria’s diverse communities after a decade and a half of war, and a half-century of the rule of a brutal authoritarian regime. Betare and Heras also tackle the subject of what the vibrant and active Syrian-American community can do to help rebuild the country and make it more prosperous than ever before.
In this inaugural edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with the Center’s Resident Senior Fellow Murad Batal Al Shishani and the Institute’s Priority Sustainable Counterterrorism Portfolio head and Senior Analyst Tammy Palacios to discuss the prospects for stability in post-Assad Syria. These two institutional experts on global Salafist-Jihadist movements and the Syrian conflict assess the likelihood that former Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir Al Sham will be able to turn its shocking military victory over the former Assad regime into a sustainable and inclusive governance system in Syria.
This week, Syrian rebel groups captured Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad sought asylum in Moscow, and Israeli forces struck key military targets across Syria. In the Indo-Pacific, China held its largest military drills to date in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s recent Pacific tour, while the U.S. increased funding for key initiatives for Taiwan. In Ukraine, Russia made significant advances in Donetsk towards the city of Pokrovsk, while French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Paris.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241213/
This week, rebel groups in Syria captured Aleppo and other areas in a renewed push against Bashar al-Assad’s government, while Israel bombed Lebanon despite the cease-fire. In the Indo-Pacific, China vowed to halt all exports of critical raw minerals to the U.S. in response to the latter’s new batch of export controls targeting Chinese tech companies, while South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol is facing possible impeachment after having imposed martial law, a decision quickly repealed by lawmakers. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Vladimir Putin threatened renewed IRBM strikes against Kyiv as Ukrainian officials met with incoming Trump administration officials in Washington.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241206/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a U.S.-mediated cease-fire, while fighting continued in Gaza, with Hamas signaling it could agree to cooperate on ceasing hostilities. In Ukraine, Kyiv experienced the largest drone bombing since the start of the war, and the U.K. unveiled additional sanctions against Russia. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwanese President William Lai is planning a visit to his diplomatic allies with a possible stop-over in the U.S., and Washington is making additional plans to deter China with the Philippines and Japan. In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada. In the closing of the U.N. COP29 climate conference, richer countries agreed to finance $300 billion per year to assist poorer countries with climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241127/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
On this episode of the Contours podcast, host Tammy Palacios sits down with Paul N.K. Aborampah Mensah, senior program manager for Ghana's Center for Democratic Development. Through their talk, they hone in on the situation and challenges ahead of Ghana's 2024 elections, including the Vigilantism Law, approaches to civic education, and how civil society groups can improve their effectiveness.
This week, Ukraine received authorization from the U.S. to use U.S.-supplied ATACM weapon systems to strike deep into Russia’s Kursk region, followed by the authorization to use British/French Storm Shadow missiles. In the Middle East, U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut and Jerusalem to propose ceasefire conditions for Hezbollah and Israel, while Israel continued its bombardments in Gaza and Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. announced new military aid and cooperation with the Philippines, and China signed several agreements with global partners during the G20 summit and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Brazil and Peru.Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
In this episode, New Lines' Gender Policy Director Kallie Mitchell, along with guests Ruth Whippman and Cait Dallaire, explore the hidden dynamics of identity and power that are reshaping global security, democratic movements, and the future of political engagement.
This week, President-elect Donald Trump nominated members of his incoming government, and the Republican Party retained control of the House of Representatives. In the Middle East, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the annexation of the West Bank amid conflicting reports of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. In Russia, Ukrainian forces conducted large-scale drone attacks against Moscow, and Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly spoke with Trump about potential resolutions to the war. In the Indo-Pacific, China posted new delimitations around the contested Scarborough Shoal near the Philippines, and U.S. President Joe Biden is set to attend the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241114/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Much attention has been paid to the supply of illicit drugs in the Middle East and war-torn Syria, but little has been focused on the patterns and implications of drug consumption in the region. However, a recent MedGlobal report reveals insightful data about Syria's emerging addiction crisis. The report notes that drug consumption has increased 300% since the outbreak of Syria's civil war, with high addiction rates associated with illicit substances, including captagon, crystal meth, heroin, cannabis, and other volatile substances. In this episode of the Contours podcast, the New Lines Institute’s Caroline Rose and Senior Non-Resident Fellow Dr. Karam Shaar discuss the report’s findings with MedGlobal President Dr. Zaher Sahloul and talk about the future of drug demand in Syria and beyond.
This week, former President Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, while the Republican Party won a Senate majority. In Russia, North Korean troops were reported to have entered combat with Ukrainian forces in Kursk, and Ukraine expressed interest in a Qatari-mediated agreement on the exclusion of energy targets. In the Middle East, Israel continued its assault in Lebanon while an unconfirmed report indicated the U.S. has deployed F-15 jets to Jordan to defend Israel from retaliatory attacks. In the Indo-Pacific, South Korea was hit by cyberattacks, while North Korea launched several short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan and the U.S. held long-range bomber drills with South Korean and Japanese forces.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241108/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, hosts Miloš Maggiore and Andrew Loftesnes provide updates on U.S. domestic developments and examine some of the scenarios that the different U.S. election outcomes could entail across global hotspots. They further look at updates from this week. In Russia, the U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that North Korean troops have been deployed in Russia's Kursk region, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed with his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol to deepen intelligence exchanges. In the Middle East, Israel conducted air strikes against Iranian military infrastructure and passed a law preventing UNRWA operations in Israel. Finally in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. approved military aid packages to Taiwan and the Philippines, while Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party failed to gain a majority in this week's parliamentary elections.Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241101/Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week in the Russia-Ukraine war, the presence of North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia was confirmed. In the Pacific, American and Canadian warships transited the Taiwan strait in response to China's blockade training maneuvers last week. In the Middle East, hopes for ceasefire in the Gaza conflict increase in the wake of the death of Yaha Sinwar, Hamas' former leader.
This week, Israel took out Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, while the United States for the first time threatened to cut off arms supplies to Israel and the United Kingdom proposed sanctions against Israeli leaders. In the Indo-Pacific, China held its most intense military exercises this year, staging a blockade within Taiwan’s contiguous waters near its ports. 'In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled his “'Victory Plan'” to parliaments and leaders of the EU and NATO.
This week, the U.S. State Department officially backed Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, as additional Israeli troops were deployed into the country, continuing battles with Hezbollah, with the latter calling for a cease fire. In the Indo-Pacific, North Korea said it would bolster its fortifications along its border with the South, and naval clashes between the Philippines and China resumed in the South China Sea. In Ukraine, Russian forces continued their advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian officials signaled their intentions to engage in a peace summit by the end of the year with the inclusion of Russia. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the U.S. State Department officially backed Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, as additional Israeli troops were deployed into the country, continuing battles with Hezbollah, with the latter calling for a cease fire. In the Indo-Pacific, North Korea said it would bolster its fortifications along its border with the South, and naval clashes between the Philippines and China resumed in the South China Sea. In Ukraine, Russian forces continued their advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian officials signaled their intentions to engage in a peace summit by the end of the year with the inclusion of Russia.Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, the Middle East saw heavy military escalation after Israel launched a ground assault against Lebanon following the death of Hezbollah commander Hassan Nasrallah. Iran responded with a missile attack on Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, Russia and China conducted a joint naval patrol along the Arctic, while the U.S. imposed further trade restrictions against Chinese imports. In Ukraine, Russian forces made advances near Vuhledar and Moscow announced plans to conscript more men into the military, while the U.S. called Ukrainian President’s Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory plans “productive.”Editor's Note: This podcast was recorded on the morning of Thursday, Oct. 4 before the port workers strike ended.Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This week, Israel continued its airstrikes against Lebanon and Gaza, as the U.K. proposed increasing sanctions against West Bank settlers and members of the UN General Assembly repeatedly called for a ceasefire. In the Indo-Pacific, a Russian aircraft breached Japanese airspace for the first time, while the U.S. announced new partnerships in the region to increase resiliency for critical infrastructure and the critical minerals supply chain. In Ukraine, Russia expanded its nuclear doctrine and its cooperation with China while Zelensky visited the US to discuss a roadmap to victory.
This week, Israel conducted a major sabotage operation against Hezbollah, killing two dozen and injuring thousands in Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, a Chinese aircraft carrier sailed through Japanese contiguous waters, and the U.S. is facing TikTok in court while having disrupted a new major Chinese hacking group. In Ukraine, Russian forces made advances in Donetsk and in their counteroffensive in Kursk, while a Ukrainian drone attack took out a weapons depot near Moscow.
In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Dr. Farid Shafiyev, the Chairman of the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations and former Ambassador of Azerbaijan to Canada and the Czech Republic. Together, they take an in-depth look at Azerbaijan-Armenia relations and their impact on geopolitical dynamics throughout Eurasia and beyond.
This week, Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russia, as it launched its largest drone-attack against Moscow to date, while the US is considering lifting restrictions on use of long-range US-supplied weapons on Russian targets. In the Middle East, Iran is facing sanctions from the West as it supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, while Israel conducted strikes against targets in the West Bank and Gaza, including designated safe zones. In the Indo-Pacific, China is conducting joint naval exercises with Russia, and the US passed a number of bills addressing Chinese influence at home and in the Pacific.
In today’s episode of the Contours podcast, host Kelsey Quinn sits down with Middle East Affairs researcher Dr. Massaab Al-Aloosy. The pair discuss the increasing role China plays in the Middle East, the American response, and how regional powers are adapting to the changing dynamics.
Eugene Chausovsky and Miloš Maggiore discuss this week's rising tensions between China and Japan, as well as Putin's significant visit to Mongolia and rising tensions in the Gaza War.
In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Dr. Kamran Bokhari and Ejaz Haider, a prominent Pakistani broadcast journalist and analyst, discuss the recent arrest of Pakistan's former ISI head, the country's challenging civil-military relations, and the external pressures Pakistan faces.
This week, Ukraine continued to advance into Russian territory in Kursk and near Belgorod and agreed to a prisoner exchange with Russia. In the Middle East, Israel expanded its focus into the West Bank and exchanged cross-border strikes with Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with government officials in Beijing in an effort to de-escalate bilateral tensions, while a Chinese reconnaissance plane flew into Japanese airspace.
In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky talks with Richard Giragosian, founding director of the Regional Studies Center. Together, they discuss the implications of a potential peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the changing roles of foreign powers in the region, and what the future holds for connectivity throughout Eurasia.
This week, Ukraine continued to gain territory in Kursk as Indian PM Modi ramped up mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine. In the Middle East, Blinken’s diplomatic tour failed to reach a ceasefire as the Lebanon theater heated up. In the Indo-Pacific, China bolstered its ties with Russia and South East Asian countries as Beijing conducted military drills in the South China Sea.
This week, Ukraine continued its military push into Russia’s Kursk region as Moscow led its own offensive in eastern Ukraine. In the Middle East, diplomatic efforts over the Gaza conflict resumed in Qatar in an attempt to forestall Iranian military retaliation against Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded export controls on critical minerals as the U.S. and EU seek to diversify their own supply chains.
This week, Iran said it would retaliate after Israel killed Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Ukraine launched a major incursion into a Russian border region, while Moscow warned of a new front of the war in Africa. China and the U.S. and its allies held competing drills in the South China Sea.
In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Dr. Kamran Bokhari hosts former CENTCOM commander, Retired Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. “Frank” McKenzie, Jr., for a discussion on the intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel, the challenge of Iranian efforts to alter the security architecture of the Middle East, and the implications for U.S. foreign policy in the region and beyond.
Tensions have ramped up in the Middle East as Israel targeted the leadership of Hamas in Iran as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. In the meantime, there was a high profile prisoner exchange between the US and Russia, while there has also been a lot of activity in the Indo-Pacific region when it comes to the US, China, and various states maneuvering between the two powers.
In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Kamran Bokhari hosts Nicole Hark, country director for Syria at Mercy Corps, for a discussion of the country’s humanitarian situation, particularly in its northeastern and northwestern regions, where her group’s operations are concentrated.
In a special episode of the New Lines Contours Podcast, host Kelsey Quinn sits down with New Lines Non-Resident Fellows Daryl Johnson and Alejandro Beutel, both specialists on domestic political extremism. In the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the three discuss the political climate in which the attack took place in, potential reactions to the shooting, and the importance of political leaders' rhetoric in modulating extremism.
In this episode of the Contours podcast, Eugene Chausovsky, senior director of analytical development at the New Lines Institute, and Marie Mach, an independent researcher of Eurasian extremist ideology, discuss the evolution of extremist violence in Central Asia, the factors driving recent attacks, and the outlook for the region.
In this episode of the Eurasian Connectivity podcast, Kamran Bokhari sits down with Vali Nasr, professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies. Together, they discuss Iran's presidential race after Raisi's death, the future of Iran's Supreme Leadership, and the shifting geopolitical landscape between Iran and Israel.
In today's episode of the Contours podcast, host Carolyn Morman talks with writer and New Lines contributor Abdulaziz Kilani. Together, they discuss how Israel's war in Gaza is affecting relations with its neighbors, the role America plays diplomatically in these changes, and how the Palestinian question may be addressed in the future.
In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Kamran Bokhari and Arnaud Quemin, the Middle East regional director of Mercy Corps, talk about the challenges of getting aid into Gaza, its evolving humanitarian situation, and the outlook for stability there after a cease-fire.
On this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, host Kamran Bokhari and guest Irfan Nooruddin, professor of Indian politics at Georgetown University, break down the recently concluded Indian national elections. Their discussion touches on the political opposition’s gains, the state of Hindutva, and how the results will affect India’s global relationships.
In this episode of the Contours Podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky talks with New Lines researcher Shahad Turkistani about the central role Saudi Arabia plays in the global energy picture, the future of the kingdom’s renewable energy diversification efforts, and how the country factors into U.S.-China competition.
In today's episode of the Contours podcast, host Kelsey Quinn sits down with Middle East Affairs researcher Dr. Massaab Al-Aloosy. The pair discuss the domestic tensions within Israel over the war, the Israeli intelligence failure leading to Oct. 7th, and how Israel has attempted to change its defense strategy over time.
In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky talks with New Lines Senior Fellow Chaouki Ghenai about their experiences with the recent flooding in Dubai. They also discuss steps the UAE and wider world can take to adapt to the changing global climate and mitigate its effects.
BLURB: In this Contours episode, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Mike Smeltzer, the Senior Research Analyst for Nations in Transit, Freedom House’s annual survey of democratic governance from Central Europe to Eurasia. Together, they discuss the struggles of Ukraine's democratization, the increasing authoritarianism in Russia, and the importance of protecting Ukraine and its democracy against Russia.
In the final episode of Russia In Context, Jeff Hawn sits down with Russian culture expert and author Ian Garner to discuss his new book, "Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia's Fascist Youth." Together, they dive into the emergence of Russia's Young Army, the effects social media has on it, and how this group has begun to shape Russia's next generation.
In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, host Kamran Bokhari sits down with New Lines Senior Director Nick Heras. Together, they dive into how a spate of international attacks may signal a resurgence of the Islamic State, the group's refocus to Central Asia, and how the global community could react.
Russia in Context podcast host Jeff Hawn continues talking with Harold Chambers and Ivan Klyszcz, who are joined by Natia Seskuria, another expert on Russia and the Caucasus, for a discussion focusing on the South Caucasus region. Among the topics they cover are the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Georgia's political environment, and Russian influence in the region.
In today's Eurasian Connectivity episode, host Kamran Bokhari sits down with Dr. Ariel Cohen and China expert Wesley Alexander to discuss their recent report on rare earth minerals in Central Asia and the need for the United States to increase its access to these minerals. The trio discuss China's massive supply of these minerals, the geography of mineral deposits and their implications, and what the U.S. can do to secure them.
In today’s Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman sits down with Bassam Alahmad, executive director of the civil society Syrians for Truth and Justice . Together, they discuss the humanitarian situation in Syria, including invasion from Turkey, the possibility of an American withdrawal, and the fight for justice against ongoing war crimes.
In this episode of the Russia in Context Podcast, host Jeff Hawn talks with researchers Ivan Klyszcz and Harold Chambers about issues affecting the North Caucasus region. Their discussion focuses on the threat of insurgency, the October riot at a Dagestani airport, and the effects of the war in Ukraine on the region.
To commemorate the two-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, host Nick Heras sits down with the New Lines Institute's Senior Director Eugene Chausovsky. In addition to discussing the present military situation, Chausovsky explains the international tie-ins to the conflict, the possibility of hybrid escalation, and what the future of the conflict looks like.
In episode 3 of the Russia in Context series, host Jeff Hawn sits down with Nick Trickett, economy analyst and author, and Yakov Feygin, associate director of the Berggruen Institute. In addition to the modern state of the Russian economy, the trio discusses the evolution of the post-Soviet Russian economy, cyclic trends in its development, and how Russia has reacted to sanctions regimes.
In today's episode of Eurasian Connectivity, host Kamran Bokhari sits down with New Lines' own Caroline Rose and non-resident fellow Col. Myles Caggins to discuss the recent escalation of events in the Middle East. In addition to recent U.S. strikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq, the trio talks about Iran’s regional goals, Iraqi attitudes toward the Inherent Resolve coalition, and how the U.S. can deal with an increasingly complex future in the region.
In this Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman speaks with New Lines Magazine Africa Editor Kwangu Liwewe about some of the most important and contentious elections in Africa in 2024, including in Mali, Senegal, Rwanda, and South Africa.
In this second episode of the Russia in Context podcast, host Jeff Hawn continues the conversation with New Lines’ own OSIG Manager Aram Shabanian; Kirill Shamiev, visiting Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; and Sim Tack, an analyst for Force Analysis. These experts discuss the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, the lead-up to hostilities, the performance of the Russian military thus far, and what may unfold next.
In this first episode of Eurasian Connectivity in the new year, host Kamran Bokhari speaks with Dayne Curry, the country manager for Mercy Corps in Afghanistan, about developments in the Taliban-ruled country since its exit from the headlines, its current humanitarian situation, and what the future may hold for its people.
In the pilot of episode of our new Russia in Context podcast series, host Jeff Hawn sits down with New Lines' own OSInt Manager Aram Shabanian; Kirill Shamiev, visiting fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations; and Sim Tack, an analyst for Force Analysis. These Russia experts discuss the evolution of Russian military capability, its contrasts with the West, and the successes and failures of the Russian military.
In this Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman talks with Senior Nonresident Fellow Chaouki Ghenai about the challenges, benefits, and emerging opportunities presented by increasing green energy connectivity between Africa and Europe.
On today’s episode of Gendering Geopolitics, host Emily Prey sits down with Beth Van Schaack, the U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, and Wai Wai Nu, the Founder of the Women Peace Network in Myanmar, to reflect on the 75th anniversary of the Genocide Convention, the ongoing Rohingya genocide, and what actions can be taken to better support survivors.
In this episode of Contours, we turn to the Balkans. On the heels of our recently published policy report, host Carolyn Moorman talks with report editor Tanya Domi and author Ivana Stradner about Russian information warfare in the region, as well as what the U.S. can do about Russian influence in the region and the Putin regime's information warfare campaign.
In this episode of Contours, host Eugene Chausovsky discusses the landscape and implications of the 2024 Taiwanese elections with expert Steven Wang.
In today’s Contours episode, Senior Director Eugene Chausovsky talks with New Lines’ non-resident senior fellow Chaouki Ghenai about his experience at the COP28 summit and his thoughts on the future of climate policy.
In this Contours Episode, host Carolyn Moorman speaks with New Lines’ own Kallie Mitchell, as well as Dr. Max Thompson, to discuss the intersection between the WPS agenda and sanctions. The pair explain the effects of sanctions on women, as well as the U.S.-led sanction regimes on Uganda, Iran, and more.
In the latest episode of the Gendering Geopolitics subseries of New Lines' Contours podcast, host Kallie Mitchell talks to legal experts Amal Nassar, Hoar Habrelian, and Anastasiia Moiseieva about the challenges of sexual violence and justice in Ukraine brought on by the Russian invasion.
In the latest episode of the Eurasian Connectivity podcast, New Lines Senior Directors Kamran Bokhari and Eugene Chausovsky break down the strategic analysis behind their latest report on the Trans-Caspain Corridor and regional geopolitics.
In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman is joined by New Lines Senior Analyst Riley Moeder to discuss Egypt’s strategic calculus given the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023 and the ongoing Sudanese conflict.
In the newest Eurasian Connectivity podcast episode, New Lines' Senior Director Kamran Bokhari sits down with regional expert Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili to discuss current security and political happenings in the nations surrounding the Caspian and Black seas, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia, and the Caucasus.
In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman, New Lines Director Caroline Rose and Syria expert Salma Daodi approach the steps multiple Arab countries are taking toward political normalization with the Assad regime and how this affects the spheres of illicit economies and public health.
Weeks after Hamas’ unprecedented attack into Israel, the Israeli government is on the verge of a ground campaign into Gaza and Iranian-affiliated elements have begun to offensively orient themselves throughout the Middle East. In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman breaks down the most critical nodes of the conflict for U.S. policymakers with expert Calvin Wilder.
In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman sits down with Non-Resident Fellow Tanya Domi and Balkans expert Agon Maliqi to discuss how Northern Kosovo reflects the Western Balkans’ political and ethnic instability and how the EU and the U.S. have both undermined the Kosovar-Serbian relationship.
In the latest episode of the Eurasian Connectivity podcast series, New Lines' Senior Director Kamran Bokhari dives into the latest in Chinese strategic thinking vis-à-vis Taiwan, CHIPS technology, and both Chinese and Taiwanese politics with expert Steven Wang.
In this episode of Contours, host Carolyn Moorman sits down with New Lines' Non-Resident Fellow Tanya Domi and Balkans expert Jasmin Mujanovic to dive into how Hungary and Croatia are creating political instability and undermining NATO and EU goals for the Western Balkans.
In this episode of the Roamings and Reflections podcast series, guest host Nicholas A. Heras chats with Eugene Chausovsky about the underappreciated geopolitical dynamics that impact Taiwan, especially its energy supply chain security, its advanced semiconductor industry, and its effort to build a global network of commercial partners that can help it maneuver against China.
In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman approaches the long-term ramifications of late August's clashes between local Arab tribes in Deir ez-Zour and the SDF on the long-term U.S. strategy in Syria with New Lines' Calvin Wilder and Aram Shabanian.
In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman discusses issues the Western Balkans are facing, including far-right nationalism, and the role the U.S. should play in the region with the Balkans experts Tanya Domi and Kurt Bassuener. This episode is a special preview of the launch of New Lines' Western Balkans Observatory and corresponding report, "Western Balkans 2023: "Assessment of Internal Challenges and External Threats."
In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman explores the ramifications of former Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's death on the group's activities in Africa and Russian internal stability with Senior Analyst Riley Moeder and Non-Resident Fellow Jeff Hawn.
In commemoration of the International Day to Protect Education from Attack, host Carolyn Moorman sits down with Save the Children's Miriam Toure, the Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack's Jerome Marston, and New Lines' Alexander Kochenburger. Their conversation examines emerging and persisting threats to education, including from non-state armed groups, and highlights best practices to safeguard education and children from these attacks.
In the first episode of the Eurasian Connectivity podcast, New Lines Institute Senior Director Dr. Kamran Bokhari and U.S. Institute of Peace Senior Advisor Dr. Daniel Markey discuss how the U.S. can prioritize mutual strategic interests with India while not placating New Delhi's current illiberal trajectory.
In late July, Niger became the latest in a series of West and Central African countries to have its democratically elected government overthrown in a coup. In the latest Countours episode, host Carolyn Moorman dives into potential ramifications of this power struggle on Sahelian counterterrorism initiatives and regional stability with New Lines Senior Analysts Riley Moeder and Tammy Palacios.
In the latest Contours episode, Zoe Robbin and Calvin Wilder join host Carolyn Moorman to discuss the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, their importance to the Syrian and Turkish people, and their impacts on the Syrian conflict.
In this episode of Contours, host Carolyn Moorman sits down with experts Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff and Jesse Marks to talk about current breakthroughs and obstacles in getting aid to Syria. This includes a recent aid delivery made to a blockaded refugee camp on the Syrian-Jordanian border and the Assad regime's about-face concerning cross-border aid after a Russian veto in the U.N. Security Council.
In this episode of the “Roamings and Reflections” series, New Lines Senior Analyst Riley Moeder joins host Carolyn Moorman to share how her recent trip to Jordan shed light on the regional issues of migration and counterterrorism. Moeder also discusses how the Sudanese conflict's recent developments have affected Egypt and other North African countries.
In the latest Contours episode, host Carolyn Moorman sits down with experts Jerome Marston, Katherine Zimmerman, and Alexander Kochenburger to dive into the Yemeni civil war's effects on Yemen's education sector and if recent geopolitical developments, including a protracted cease-fire and Saudi-Iranian normalization, will allow for greater international focus on reconstruction efforts.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative's creation in 2022 helped to stabilize the global food chain in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In this episode of Contours, Host Carolyn Moorman, Non-Resident Fellow Zoe Robbin, and Senior Director Eugene Chausovsky discuss what aspects of the deal's framework can be applied to the devastating affects the war has had on Ukraine's water and agricultural infrastructure.
Over a 24-hour period, leader of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin urged Wagner fighters to march on Moscow, successfully captured a city in Southern Russia, and then signed an agreement to back off and retreat to Belarus. Host Carolyn Moorman, Non-Resident Fellow Jeff Hawn, and Open-Source Information Gathering Manager Aram Shabanian dive into what these events mean for Russia’s internal political dynamics and foreign policy.
In the newest episode of Contours, host Carolyn Moorman, New Lines Analyst Calvin Wilder, and the Kurdish Peace Institute's Director of Research Meghan Bodette dive into areas in which Ankara's policy rule book regarding the Turkish-Kurdish conflict will confirm and diverge from previous policy, given President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's re-election for another term in May's elections.
Any day now, the U.S. government will release its interagency strategy to combat captagon, as mandated by the late-2022 Captagon Act. In this Contours episode, Host Carolyn Moorman discusses with Director Caroline Rose and Non-resident Senior Fellow Dr. Karam Shaar how this strategy can be expected to address the trade and its evolution in the midst of an environment where multiple Arab nations are taking steps toward normalization with the very regime that is producing the drug.
Following an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for crimes committed in Ukraine, South Africa's government is facing a dilemma over whether it will arrest Putin when he visits Pretoria in August for a BRICS summit. Host Carolyn Moorman is joined by two globally recognized experts on Africa – New Lines Senior Director for Political Systems Analysis David Raikow and New Lines Magazine Africa Editor Kwangu Liwewe – to break down South Africa's obligations to the ICC as well as the geopolitical considerations South Africa is facing amid pressure from both the U.S. and Russia ahead of the summit.
Fighting in Sudan has killed hundreds and driven hundreds of thousands of refugees into neighboring African nations. In the second part of this two-episode series of Contours, host Carolyn Moorman and New Lines Senior Analyst Riley Moeder discuss refugee inflows to North Africa and Europe and potential areas for the U.S. to augment its existing efforts to de-escalate the conflict and help stabilize the region.
A month into the sustained fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the crisis has produced over 250,000 refugees and threatened regional stability. In part one of a two-part episode of Contours, host Carolyn Moorman and New Lines Institute Senior Director of Political Systems Analysis David Raikow discuss potential mediation roles for both the U.N. and the United States, the sustainability of the most recent cease-fire, and ways in which this crisis differs from others Raikow has experienced through his career serving in multiple U.N. field missions.
This Newlines Institute Contours podcast reviews the geopolitical effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, assesses what might occur in that conflict in the year ahead, and seeks to answer the question of whether anything or anyone can convince Russia and Ukraine to halt the fighting. New Lines Senior Director Nicholas Heras is joined by two globally recognized experts on Russia, Ukraine, and the war’s geopolitical impact war – New Lines Senior Director Eugene Chausovsky and New Lines Nonresident Fellow Jeff Hawn – to further break down the intricate network of tactics the U.S. and its partners have engaged to isolate and punish Russia, the geopolitical strategy that Putin’s government has embarked on, and the prospects for an outright Ukrainian victory in the war.
In this episode of Contours, host Minna Jaffery-Lindemulder speaks with Carolyn Moorman of the New Lines Institute and Kwangu Liwewe of New Lines Magazine about upcoming elections in Nigeria and Zimbabwe. They discuss key domestic security and economic challenges in each country, as well as threats to the elections and to democracy as a whole in the region. This conversation lays out the key players in each election, as well as their possible challenges ahead of Nigerian elections set for Feb. 25 and Zimbabwean elections over the summer.
On this episode of Contours, Power Vacuums Program Head Caroline Rose sits down with New Lines Non-Resident Senior Fellow and former spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, Col. Myles B. Caggins III, to discuss the lingering effects of U.S. base transfers, personnel reductions, and transition to an advise-and-assist role in Iraq.
On Oct. 10, Russia announced it was deploying troops to Belarus under a regional group of forces mechanism, mobilizing thousands of forces, fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles, and other equipment to Belarus. The move has raised valid questions about whether Russia and Belarus are planning a renewed offensive against Kyiv, reigniting fighting in Ukraine's northern front. In this episode, Senior Analyst Caroline Rose sits down with Sim Tack, geopolitical and military analyst at Force Analysis, to review the constraints, imperatives, and likelihood of a joint Russian-Belarusian assault on the Ukrainian capital, as well as space for action for the U.S. and its partners.
Tunisia's recent reversal of democratic freedoms under the presidency of Kais Saied has raised concerns about the country's democracy and stability. The fragile political and economic situation has also unleashed a significant wave of displacement in the Mediterranean, as worsening Tunisian conditions have exacerbated migration waves from North Africa. In this Contours podcast, the Head of New Lines' Power Vacuums Program, Caroline Rose, sits down with former U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia Gordon Gray and New Lines analyst Alice Hickson to break down the precarious situation.
In this episode of the New Lines Institute’s Contours podcast series, Strategy and Innovation Unit Director Nicolas Heras is joined by former Human Security Unit Research Intern Claudia Gago Ostos to discuss the U.S.’s foreign policy toward Venezuela and the Latin America region amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The discussion centers on the role the U.S. can play, alongside Venezuelan civil society organizations, in promoting democracy in Venezuela, despite the creeping influence of Iran, Russia, and China in the region.
In this episode, Syed Mohammad Ali shares why the United States would do well to begin paying more attention to Bangladesh and its shift away from democratic values. As political violence increases and the ruling party consolidates control, the U.S. can use a mixture of punitive measures and support to help guide Bangladesh back toward democracy.
In this episode, Ambassador Frederic Hof analyzes the Israeli-Lebanese deal separating their respective exclusive economic zones in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. However, both countries have a long way to go before they can reap the rewards.
In this episode, Joel Wasserman focuses on Ukraine’s messy internal politics, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cleaning house in his security service and making other moves seen by some as an effort to consolidate his administration’s control. But even if Zelenskyy was anti-democratically inclined, several factors of Ukrainian politics make it an unlikely goal to achieve. Learn more about why the country is inhospitable to autocrats.
In this episode, Alec Dionne and Maggie Sparling lay out a diplomatic framework that centers human security to win the Pacific Island countries’ long-term trust, support U.S. strategic goals, uplift its allies, and improve health outcomes. The United States’ fraught history with the Pacific Island countries has left the door open for increasing influence from China. As Beijing uses aggressive economic tactics to achieve its ends, Washington should rethink its traditional approach to the region.
In this episode, Syed Mohammad Ali writes about Sri Lanka’s protracted civil war, and how the country is facing an economic crisis alongside social and political unrest. These problems, as deeply rooted as they are, have opened a window of opportunity for the United States to offer assistance in regaining stability in Sri Lanka – a development that would serve Washington’s goal of strengthening its presence in the region amid a great power competition.
In this episode, Jeff Hawn discusses Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive, which pushed Russian forces back from Kharkiv to the eastern bank of the Oskil River, benefited from Ukraine’s growing advantages and Russia’s increasingly pronounced weaknesses. Learn about the disparities between the two armies and shows how the success in Kharkiv can be repeatable with continued Western investment.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine heads into its eighth month, the possibility of Russian economic and military escalation increases. In this episode of the New Lines Institute's Contours podcast, host Minna Jaffery-Lindemulder sits down with Senior Analyst Eugene Chausovsky to dive into the role of diplomacy in mediating this escalation and the potential consequences for great-power competition.
In this episode of The New Lines Institute’s Contours podcast series, Content Manager Minna Jaffery-Lindemulder is joined by Indian subcontinent experts Dr. Syed Mohammad Ali and Akhil Bery for an in-depth look at the geopolitics of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Indian Subcontinent as a whole. Highlights of the discussion include how Bangladesh and Sri Lanka balance their relationships with India and China, and the ties between South Asian countries' economic and political policies.
In this episode of Contours, Senior Analyst and Program Head Caroline Rose sits down with Non-Resident Fellow and a co-author of a recent New Lines report, "A Crisis of Conscience: Aid Diversion in Syria and the Impact on the International Aid System," Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff, to unpack a recent crisis in the U.N. Security Council over the status and future of a cross-border aid delivery mandate in northwestern Syria.
Gendering Geopolitics with Emily Prey: Iuliia Mendel, former Spokesperson to President Zelenskyy, discusses her book The Fight for Our Lives & how women must have a seat at the table during the #Ukraine #Russia war & in any post-war talks.
In this episode, The New Lines institute proudly presents a new offering, Practitioner’s Perspective, where thought leaders with distinguished careers in foreign policy impart their wisdom from years of experience in the field. In the inaugural entry, former Ambassador Frederic Hof focuses on the ten-year-old case of Austin Tice, an American journalist kidnapped in Syria. Hof details “the enormous difficulty this or any administration faces in trying to free Austin Tice from the clutches of people unencumbered by ethics, morality, or decency.”
In this episode, learn more about why nearly a third of Ukrainian refugees are returning home, choosing to live in danger in Ukraine rather than live with the uncertainties of being a refugee. These Ukrainians are returning home for a variety of reasons – to reunite with family, to find a way to make money, and because of perceived safety in parts of Ukraine. However, better support for these refugees in host countries – childcare, employment opportunities, more freedom of movement – would make premature repatriation less likely, Alice Hickson writes in this Terrain Analysis.
In this episode, as Syed Mohammad Ali explains, India, the world’s largest democracy, which traditionally maintained a non-aligned stance, should be a natural partner. The U.S. has pursued a closer relationship with India since the Clinton administration, and for good reason. This is especially true as great-power competition grows and Washington seeks to counter Beijing in the Indo-Pacific. However, if the steady rise of Hindu nationalism is not halted, the theocratic India that emerges will destabilize the entire region. Within its borders, it may become ripe for genocide. For the United States, it will be no partner at all.
In this Gendering Geopolitics episode, host Emily Prey invites Ethiopian journalist Lucy Kassa to learn more about how the war in #Ethiopia has affected Kassa's reporting capabilities, sexual & gender based violence in the region, and the importance of the political agenda to all groups party to the conflict.
On this Gendering Geopolitics with Emily Prey, Dr. Mia Brett discusses Roe v. Wade, the leaked SCOTUS draft, and what the future looks like for women in America.
On this Gendering Geopolitics with Emily Prey: MP Nusrat Ghani, on what the world can do to address the Uyghur Genocide and bring justice and accountability for the crimes against the Uyghurs.
On this Gendering Geopolitics with Emily Prey the BBC's Sana Safi discusses Biden's decision to unfreeze Afghan funds for in-country relief and 9/11 families, the risks facing the Hazara, and the situation for Afghan Women.
In this Gendering Geopolitics episode, host Emily Prey invites Ethiopian journalist Lucy Kassa to learn more about how the war in Ethiopia has affected Kassa's reporting capabilities, sexual & gender based violence in the region, and the importance of the political agenda to all groups party to the conflict.
On this Gendering Geopolitics with Emily Prey, Ukrainian MP Inna Sovsun on the human cost of the war in Ukraine, and what US and European leaders can do to help.
Gendering Geopolitics with Emily Prey: Esther Dingemans, Director of the Mukwege Foundation and the Global Survivors Fund, will discuss conflict-related sexual violence faced by women in Ukraine and strategies for prevention.
On this #GenderingGeopolitics with Emily Prey: Huma Abedin, NYT best-selling author & Chief of Staff to Hillary Clinton, discusses her new book Both/And, key lessons learned in her career, & the importance of having conversations about mental health.
A string of attacks that the Islamic State called the “Raid of Revenge for the Two Sheikhs” in recent months shows that the group has strengthened – at least in Syria, though it languishes in Iraq, its former stronghold. U.S. policy failures in Syria left the country open for the Islamic State to regroup and carry out operations. In this episode, author Abdullah al-Ghadawi shares why the United States needs to rethink its strategy and recognize the threat that ISIS poses.
In this episode, Claudia Gago Ostos explores what the months leading up to Brazil’s Oct. 2 general elections may look like — similar to the social unrest and political instability experienced during the the Jan. 6, 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol. The election results are likely to be close, and whichever of the frontrunners – current President Jair Bolsonaro or former President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva – wins, the Biden administration will need to consider how to respond to potential instability in Brazil and how to reset Washington’s relationship with Brasília.
In this episode, Alexander Kochenburger explains why states exposed to authoritarian environments need further support from U.S. policymakers. Although several authoritarian states in the Maghreb have implemented transitional justice measures to investigate state-sponsored human rights abuses, these often do not lead to true and lasting reforms.
In this episode, Calvin Wilder details the current state of military cooperation between the SDF and the regime and shows how this security partnership will not necessarily translate to a political understanding between AANES and the regime. Turkey is intensifying its artillery and drone strikes against military and civilian targets in regions of Syria controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their civilian counterpart, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). With the United States remaining muted in its response to this pressure, the SDF is increasingly relying on the Assad regime for security support.
In this episode, Munira Mustaffa analyzes militant groups in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines and details the organizational weaknesses that have marked their recent ineffectiveness. The dissolution of the Islamic State’s caliphate in Iraq and Syria have prompted fears that transnational militant groups would use Southeast Asia to regroup. However, these militants have failed to galvanize local militant groups – each with its own goals and grievances – to adopt a transnational cause.
In this episode, Ariel Cohen and Wesley A. Hill lay out a strategy for intelligent, limited, and targeted reconstruction aid.As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, policymakers in the United States and elsewhere are already considering how to win the peace, offering hundreds of billions of dollars in aid for reconstruction. However, far from helping Ukraine’s post-war economic, political, and social situation, simply throwing money at the problem could in fact make things worse.
Despite the zero-sum approach that energy importers and exporters have taken, in this episode, Eugene Chausovsky shares why cooperation and collective action are crucial to staving off a potential global economic recession and fighting climate change. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, major players in the global energy sphere have adopted competing energy strategies in order to secure energy flows. Politics, security, and economics all play a role in this struggle.
In this episode, Emil Avdaliani writes that the possible deal could have economic and political consequences far beyond the long-time enemies, with reverberations from the South Caucasus to Turkey, Russia, and Iran. As Azerbaijan and Armenia move closer to a peace agreement, there are several internal and external factors that could scuttle a rapprochement, especially in Armenia.
INTERPOL has reintegrated Syria into its information system and invited it to a summit on regional drug interdiction efforts. In this episode, Caroline Rose writes that giving the Syrian government – the chief player in the region’s captagon trade – access to information will allow it to carry out politically motivated arrest warrants and adapt to new counternarcotic efforts could undermine interdiction plans in the region.
In this episode, Jeff Hawn details the implications of Western leaders failure to understand Russia. Its failures helped facilitate the rise of Vladimir Putin, who became everything the U.S. and the West feared from a post-Soviet Russia. To avoid repeating that mistake as Russia moves into a post-Putin area, American leadership must look beyond personalities and understand the regime’s mechanics.
In this episode, Diana Rayes proposes that the countries providing assistance to these – and other – refugees should learn from past crises and scale up their national health systems in order to accommodate the mental health and social integration issues these newcomers face. Nearly 12 million Ukrainians are either displaced within their own country or seeking refuge abroad after the Russian invasion. EU countries are not equipped to handle the mental health conditions of so many people affected by violence and sudden displacement.
In this episode, New Lines analyst Calvin Wilder gives an overview of the situation on the front lines and shows ways Washington can de-escalate tensions and promote peace in the region.Turkey is threatening a third offensive into territory in northeast Syria controlled by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While pressure from both the U.S. and Russia may have put those plans on hold, smaller-scale violence continues to kill both soldiers and civilians and threaten the area’s stability.
In this episode, Jesse Marks and Caroline Rose explain the ongoing security situation and describe how Washington can help Jordan constructively engage with the regime over illicit narcotics streams, border clashes, and other security concerns – short of normalization.Recent overtures between the Jordanian and Syrian governments have prompted concerns from the United States that Amman is seeking to normalize relations with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but the security situation in southern Syria is still far too unstable for Jordan to consider resuming its ties with its northern neighbor.
In this episode, Jeremy Morris details the threats the regime could face from worker militancy, passive resistance to the state, and negative politicization of the war.Much has been made of political unrest in Russia over the past few years, but the Putin regime’s invasion of Ukraine has increased the possibility of economic instability as the poor and middle class increasingly feel the effects of Putin’s foreign policy adventure.
In this episode, Claudia Gago Ostos discusses the Summit of the Americas, held on June 6, 2022 in Los Angeles. Organizing the summit was fraught with difficulties: Some Caribbean and Central and South American countries threatened to boycott the event if non-democratic countries are excluded from the guest list, and the U.S. has not made the summit’s agenda clear. Ostos details the implications of this event on U.S-Latin America relations.
In this episode, Sabina Henneberg and Karim Mezran show the history of Gulf states’ involvement in the region and why the Biden administration should pay attention to this volatile area. The Maghreb is strategically crucial for commerce, energy, and U.S. national security, but Washington’s allies in the Persian Gulf are increasingly taking advantage of instability in the region to further their own aims.
In this episode, Hamdullah Baycar lays out the incentives – and obstacles – for improved relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi.The UAE and Turkey have begun to normalize relations after a decade of cold war, a move that could hasten normalization between Turkey and Israel and further isolate Iran.
In this episode, Heiko Wimmen lays out the factors that have doomed the country to such vicious political cycles since the end of the civil war 33 years ago and shows steps interested domestic and international stakeholders can take to promote change. Lebanon continues to reel from a ruinous economic crisis, but upcoming parliamentary elections appear likely to produce few if any changes in the makeup of the government.
In this episode of the New Lines Institute’s Contours podcast series, Human Security Unit Director Faysal Itani sits down with Lebanese political activist Alaa Sayeg to discuss Lebanese politics amid the worst economic situation in the country’s history. Viewed through the lens of Sayeg’s personal experience as an opposition politician in the May 2022 national elections, the discussion highlights the difficulties anti-regime activists face in the rigid Lebanese political system, as well as Hezbollah's role in the country.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is entering a new phase as forces shift their focus to the country’s east and south, seeking to capitalize on gains in separatist enclaves after numerous losses and shortfalls in the campaign’s initial months. As Russia adjusts its posture, the U.S. — particularly its intelligence community — also wants to shift to a long-term strategy that will deter Russian advances and violations of human security in both Ukraine and Eastern Europe at large.
In this Contours episode, Senior Analyst Caroline Rose sits down with Douglas London, a decorated veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) Clandestine Service, an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.
In this episode of the New Lines Institute's Contours podcast series, host Nicholas Heras is joined by three outstanding experts, Leyla Latypova, Misha Yakovlev, and Jeff Hawn, to discuss the state of Russian civil society and the civil resistance movement against the Putin-led Russian government. The discussion focuses on the current, contentious, and potentially regime-destabilizing dynamic between the Putin's regime and Russia's ethnic and religious minority populations. They also explore how the Russian state targets civil rights – including LGBTQ rights – and how the Putin-led government might remodel its security apparatus in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
In this episode of the New Lines Institute’s Contours podcast series, host Nicholas Heras is joined by two leading experts on the Indian Subcontinent, Dr. Syed Mohammad Ali and Suchitra Vijayan , to analyze the dangerous emerging dynamics on the Indian subcontinent, especially inside India and in the contentious relationship between India and Pakistan. The discussion covers Vijayan’s critically acclaimed book, Midnight’s Borders: A People’s History of Modern India , and assesses how the tortured history of the subcontinent continues to drive India and Pakistan to instability and conflict. The panel also discusses how the United States can approach its policy toward the subcontinent, with a special focus on how the growing Indian-American community is shaping U.S.-India policy in an era of great-power competition.
In this segment of the Contours podcast series, Nicholas Heras is joined by two leading experts on the Indian Subcontinent and climate change – Dr. Syed Mohammad Ali and Dr. Saleem Ali – to discuss the geopolitics of climate change in India, Pakistan, and South Asia overall. The discussion then dives into the key findings from Dr. Saleem Ali’s forthcoming book, Earthly Order: How Natural Laws Define Human Life (Oxford University Press, 2022) on how the local, regional, and global effects of climate change are impacting human societies. They also highlight what policy actions the United States can take to help mitigate the prospect of climate-induced state collapse, conflict, and other trans-national threats to human security on the Indian Subcontinent.
In this episode of the Contours podcast series, Nicholas Heras discusses the tumultuous state of Pakistan with two globally recognized experts on the country: Dr. Syed Mohammad Ali and Raza Rumi Ahmad. They discuss the social and political fallout from the removal of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the geopolitical ramifications of Khan's ongoing effort to weaponize anti-Americanism. The experts also offer a path forward for an uncertain U.S. policy approach to Pakistan and India, and to meet the rising tide of Chinese power on the Indian subcontinent.
In this episode of “Roamings and Reflections,” Mercy Corps Senior Policy Advisor Yasmin Faruki joins host Alice Hickson to share what she's learned from her travels to Yemen and her work directing humanitarian policy efforts on there. Faruki discusses obstacles to humanitarian work in Yemen and speaks candidly about the need to partner with local organizations to create a sustainable future.
In this segment of the Contours podcast series, Nicholas Heras is joined by Eugene Chausovsky, Senior Analyst at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy and a globally recognized expert on Russia, the post-Soviet states, and Eurasia, to discuss Russia’s potential emerging strategy to annex breakaway territories in several post-Soviet states. The discussion dives into the implications of Chausovsky’s most recent essay in Foreign Policy, “Russia May Be Ready to Annex Breakaway Territories,” and what the U.S. policy response should be to countering Russia’s annexation approach. Heras and Chausovsky also debate whether Ukraine can accept former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s assertion that Ukraine should give up some of its territory to Russia in exchange for long-term peace.
In the latest episode of the New Lines Institute’s Contours podcast, Program Head and Senior Analyst Caroline Rose interviews Jim Townsend, Rachel Rizzo, and Eugene Chausovsky on transatlantic security in light of the conflict in Ukraine. Townsend is an adjunct senior fellow in the Center for a New American Security’s (CNAS) Transatlantic Security Program and the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy. Rizzo is an adjunct fellow in the CNAS Transatlantic Security Program. Her research focuses on European security, NATO, and the transatlantic relationship. Chausovsky is a Senior Analyst and Program Head for Training and Analytical Products at the New Lines Institute; his research focuses on Central Asia and Eurasia. Their conversation covers new applicants to NATO, Russia’s perceived threats, and how transatlantic security will be affected by the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
The latest episode of the New Lines Institute's Contours podcast breaks down the transforming battlefield conditions and strategic state of play in Ukraine. Host Caroline Rose, a senior analyst at the New Lines Institute and the head of the Power Vacuums program, is joined by three leading military and open-source intelligence experts: Rob Lee, a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program and PhD candidate at King's College London's War Studies Department; Sim Tack, the co-founder and Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis, and Aram Shabanian, a Human Security Unit analyst at the New Lines Institute.
In this episode of the Contours podcast series, Nicholas Heras is joined by two noted scholars and globally-recognized experts on religious authoritarianism on the Indian Subcontinent: Dr. Syed Mohammad Ali and Shweta Krishnan. These experts discuss the history of religious nationalism on the Indian Subcontinent since the end of British colonialism and the partition of India and Pakistan, the development of religious political mass movements in India and Pakistan, and how elites in both countries are seeking to harness such movements now. They also examine the domestic pressures inside India and Pakistan that could lead to public demand in both countries for a religious conflict that would have grave humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.
In the first Contours podcast of 2022, Nicholas Heras is joined by war reporter Jake Hanrahan to discuss the future of conflict and the breakdown of the post-World War II global system. Hanrahan is the founder of Popular Front, a disruptive media organization that seeks to provide nuanced, gritty, and deeply human reporting on under-covered conflicts in the world. Heras and Hanrahan engaged in a wide-ranging conversation on the current state of underreported conflicts around the globe, war reporting in the age of social media, growing authoritarianism in the West, and the future of the Western-led, rules-based international order.
In this episode of the New Lines Institute’s Contours podcast series, widely respected academic Dr. Dana El Kurd sits down with Rasha Al Aqeedi and Nicholas Heras to discuss her groundbreaking research on an emerging generation of Palestinian civil society and political activists. Dr. El Kurd provides a deep dive on her innovative work on the ground in Palestine, her assessment on what the future might hold for Palestinian activism, and whether there is way forward for the Palestinian people to achieve their human dignity in the face of oppression from both the Palestinian Authority and Israel. She is the author of the highly regarded two-part New Lines Institute series on this subject, “The Strengthening of Palestinian Civil Society Activism.”
In this episode of the Newlines Institute’s Contours podcast series, Lebanon and Levant geopolitics expert Anthony Elghossain, also a contributing editor at Newlines Magazine, chats with Nicholas Heras about the recent Beirut clashes and their potential implications for Lebanon. Elghossain channels his extensive experience as a researcher in Lebanon to provide a nuanced forecast on Lebanon’s evolving security dynamics and the impact on the fragile Lebanese state as it continues its collapse.
In this episode of the Newlines Institute’s Contours podcast series, geopolitical analysts and Russia experts Jeff Hawn and Sim Tack join the Newlines Institute’s Caroline Rose and Nicholas Heras to break down the future of Russia after the country’s September 2021 parliamentary elections. The discussion includes a detailed assessment of the U.S. and European policy approach to Russia and recommendations for those approaches moving forward. In particular, Hawn, Tack, Rose, and Heras wrestle with the basic but important question of whether the Biden team needs to think more creatively while developing its policy on Russia.
In this episode of “Roamings and Reflections,” humanitarian assistance and international development expert Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff joins host Nicholas Heras to recount the massive effort to evacuate Afghans as the Taliban seized Kabul. Ghosh-Siminoff provides an account of one of the most unique civil society efforts in U.S. history as America’s “forever war” in Afghanistan came to a chaotic end.
In this episode of Roamings and Reflections, Director of Newlines Institute’s Human Security Unit Faysal Itani interviews Flavius Mihaies about his travels through Lebanon. Few would dispute that Middle Eastern minorities face a range of challenges. In some places they are in physical danger, while in others they face political marginalization. In this conversation, Itani and Mihaies discuss the experience of Lebanon’s minorities, particularly its Christian population, and situate these experiences in Lebanon’s ongoing political, economic, and social decay. This follows Mihaies’ visit to Lebanon to research Christian political attitudes and experiences.
In this emergency edition of the Newlines Institute’s Contours podcast, Contours host Nicholas Heras talks through the short-term scenarios in Afghanistan and the geopolitical maneuvers to follow now that the Taliban stands triumphant in Kabul with Kamran Bokhari, Rasha Al Aqeedi, and Caroline Rose. Kamran Bokhari is a globally recognized expert on Afghanistan and the Director for Analytical Development at the Newlines Institute. Rasha Al Aqeedi is the Senior Analyst and Program Head for Nonstate Actors at the Newlines Institute who has been closely following the Taliban's transition from nonstate authority to a state. Caroline Rose is the Senior Analyst and Program Head for Power Vacuums who has been gaming the geopolitical scenarios in Asia in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
In this inaugural episode of the “Roamings and Reflections” series within the Newlines Institute Contours podcast, Newlines Institute Nonresident Fellow Eugene Chausovsky discusses his recent trip to Ukraine and Azerbaijan with Contours host Nicholas Heras. Chausovsky traveled to these countries to investigate the linkages between energy, infrastructure, security, and trade that are driving geopolitics in Eurasia. What he found was a striking similarity in the challenges and opportunities presented to the decision makers in Kyiv and Baku as they chart their next moves in a changing global system. The Roamings and Reflections series will highlight trips to the field – domestic and foreign – made by Newlines Institute team members, drawing out their timely, relevant, and actionable findings that are important to policy and geopolitics.
In this special Newlines Institute Contours podcast, Iraq experts Rasha Al-Aqeedi, Caroline Rose, and Contours host Nicholas Heras discuss Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s visit to Washington to meet President Joe Biden and what al-Kadhimi’s trip means for the dynamics inside Iraq and for U.S policy on Iraq. Al-Aqeedi, Rose, and Heras give al-Kadhimi a grade for his term as prime minister to date and forecast what to expect next in Iraq. Rasha Al-Aqeedi is the Senior Analyst and Program Head for the Nonstate Actors Program, Caroline Rose is the Senior Analyst and Program Head for Power Vacuums, and Nicholas Heras is the Senior Analyst and Program Head for State Resilience and Fragility, at the Newlines Institute. All three have written extensively on dynamics inside of Iraq, U.S. policy on Iraq, and the geopolitical impact of events in Iraq in the Middle East and beyond the region.
This Newlines Institute Contours podcast assesses state resilience and fragility in Jordan and the future of the U.S.-Jordanian relationship. Newlines Institute Senior Analyst and Contours host Nicholas Heras sits down with Suha Ma’ayeh, Rana Sweis, and Dr. Curtis R. Ryan to discuss why King Abdullah II’s upcoming visit to the White House to meet President Joe Biden is such a high-stakes meeting for the future of Middle East stability and security. Suha Ma’ayeh is a Jordanian freelance journalist and researcher based in Amman. She has written extensively on domestic politics, Arab spring protests, foreign affairs, terrorism, elections, and corruption, including the crisis in southern Syria and the influx of refugees, for the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and Foreign Affairs. Rana Sweis is a Jordanian journalist and researcher covering political, social and refugee issues in the Middle East, most often for The New York Times, and the founder and managing director of Wishbox Media. She is the author of “Voice of Jordan,” a book that tells the story of Jordan through the lives of ordinary people, including an Iraqi political cartoonist, a Syrian refugee, a female parliamentarian and others. Dr. Curtis R. Ryan is a Professor of Political Science at Appalachian State University in North Carolina. He has written extensively on Jordan's domestic and international politics and is the author of three books on Jordan, most recently, “Jordan and the Arab Uprisings: Regime Survival and Politics Beyond the State.”
This Newlines Institute Contours podcast assesses state resilience and fragility in Egypt and the future of the Egyptian state using one of the best books on this subject, “Coups and Revolutions: Mass Mobilization, the Egyptian Military, and the United States from Mubarak to Sisi ,” by Dr. Amy Austin Holmes. Newlines Institute Senior Analyst and Contours host Nicholas Heras sits down with Dr. Holmes and another highly regarded Egypt expert, Mohamed Soltan, to discuss the Egyptian state's response to the three mass uprisings it faced since 2011 and how the Abdel Fattah al-Sisi-led government could adapt to numerous pressures on Egypt's stability. Dr. Amy Austin Holmes is currently a Public Policy Fellow at the Wilson Center. Previously she served, for more than 10 years, as a tenured Associate Professor at the American University in Cairo, where she lived through the uprising that overthrew Hosni Mubarak and al-Sisi's subsequent rise to power. Mohamed Soltan is a human rights policy advocate and founder of The Freedom Initiative, a leading rights organization dedicated to the release of political prisoners in the Arab World. In 2013, Mohamed was shot and detained amid a violent crackdown on dissent following Egypt’s military coup. He began an open-ended hunger strike to protest his unjust imprisonment and inhumane detention conditions, which ultimately lasted 489 days. The Obama Administration, urged by bipartisan members of Congress and international civil society, intervened at the highest levels to facilitate his release in May 2015.
This Newlines Institute Contours podcast examines dynamics in Iran to watch now that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s protégé Ebrahim Raisi has been elected president. In this episode, Newlines Institute Senior Analyst and Contours host Nicholas Heras sits down with three noted Iran experts: Professor Neda Bolourchi, associate director of and faculty member in the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Rutgers University-New Brunswick; Amir Toumaj, a research and policy analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and co-founder of Resistance Axis Monitor; and Dr. Kamran Bokhari, the Newlines Institute's director of Analytical Development.
This Newlines Institute Contours podcast presents a deep dive into U.S. President Joe Biden’s inaugural visit to Europe, his administration’s commitment to collective defense, and the fragile trajectory of U.S.-Russian relations ahead of the June 16 Geneva summit between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In this episode, Newlines Institute Senior Analyst and Contours host, Nicholas Heras, sits down with four special guests: Jim Townsend, Jr., an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy; Rachel Rizzo, the Director of Programs at the Truman Center and Truman National Security Project; Dr. Ariel Cohen, a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council and Founding Principal of International Market Analysis, Ltd; and Caroline Rose, a Senior Analyst and Head of Newlines Institute’s Power Vacuums Program.
Newlines Institute’s Rasha Al Aqeedi and The New York Times’ Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf discuss the current state of Iraq’s October Revolution movement that began nearly two years ago. They are joined by a prominent figure in Iraq’s political activism scene. Newlines Institute has decided to keep the activist anonymous for security reasons, as threats and assassinations continue targeting political activists. Newlines Institute’s Nick Heras moderates the discussion.
In this two-part Contours podcast, Newlines Institute’s Nicholas A. Heras explores the Palestinian-Israeli crisis with colleague Caroline Rose. They are first joined by Omar Rahman, an expert on the post-Oslo Accords era of this conflict. This episode examines the root causes of Palestinian grievances and explores the limited options available to residents of the West Bank and Gaza.
Our second episode features Newlines Institute Fellow Elizabeth Tsurkov and the Shalom-Hartman Institute’s Yossi Klein. They engage in a spirited discussion about how perceptions of the crisis within Israel differ from perspectives globally, and how the U.S. must balance its relationship with Israel while still defending human rights.
We hope that you will listen to both conversations and come away with a greater understanding of how this conflict is being perceived within and outside of the region.
The unfolding civil crisis between Israel and Palestinian factions in Gaza is already having significant effects in both the Middle East and the international community. The eruption of violence between Israel and the Palestinian Territories has disrupted a series of Arab-Israeli normalization deals, initiated with the 2020 Abraham Accords, and the Biden administration’s planned pivot away from the Middle East as the U.S. focuses on great power competition.
Newlines Institute for Policy and Strategy’s Senior Analyst and Head of the State Fragility and Resiliency Program Nicholas Heras sat down with Elizabeth Tsurkov, a non-resident fellow at the Newlines Institute and a research fellow at the Forum for Regional Thinking; Yossi Klein Halevi, a best-selling author and senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute; and Caroline Rose, a senior analyst and head of the Power Vacuums program at the Newlines Institute. The four took a deep dive into ongoing tensions within Israel that gave way to a crisis in Gaza, the impact on regional geopolitics, and what this means for the U.S.-Israel relationship.
In this two-part Contours podcast, Newlines Institute’s Nicholas A. Heras explores the Palestinian-Israeli crisis with colleague Caroline Rose. They are first joined by Omar Rahman, an expert on the post-Oslo Accords era of this conflict. This episode examines the root causes of Palestinian grievances and explores the limited options available to residents of the West Bank and Gaza.
Our second episode features Newlines Institute Fellow Elizabeth Tsurkov and the Shalom-Hartman Institute’s Yossi Klein. They engage in a spirited discussion about how perceptions of the crisis within Israel differ from perspectives globally, and how the U.S. must balance its relationship with Israel while still defending human rights.
We hope that you will listen to both conversations and come away with a greater understanding of how this conflict is being perceived within and outside of the region.
The unfolding civil crisis between Israel and Palestinian factions in Gaza is already having significant regional effects in both the Middle East and the international community. The eruption of violence between Israel and the Palestinian Territories has disrupted a series of Arab-Israeli normalization deals, initiated with the 2020 Abraham Accords, and the Biden administration’s planned pivot away from the Middle East as the United States focuses on great power competition.
Newlines Institute for Policy and Strategy’s Senior Analyst and Head of the State Fragility and Resiliency Program Nicholas Heras sat down with Omar Rahman, a respected analyst and expert on post-Oslo era Palestinian politics at the Brookings Doha Center, and the Head of Newlines’ Power Vacuums program Senior Analyst Caroline Rose. The three took a deep dive into ongoing tensions between Israel and the Palestinian Territories, what this means for Palestinian political consensus, and the impact on regional geopolitics.
This Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy podcast reviews the unfolding military escalation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, as Russian forces strengthen their posture and pose a potential stress test of the Biden administration, U.S. European allies, and the NATO alliance. To discuss this potential crisis in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, Newlines Institute Senior Analyst and head of the Authoritarianism Program Nicholas Heras is joined by three top analysts on Russian foreign policy and Eastern European geopolitics: Caroline Rose, Eugene Chausovsky, and Jeff Hawn.
Caroline Rose is a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute for Policy and Strategy and is a foreign policy specialist on the Middle East and Europe. She is the head of Newlines’ Strategic Vacuums Program. Eugene Chausovsky is a non-resident Fellow with the Newlines Institute, focusing on the political, economic, and security issues pertaining to Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East. Jeff Hawn is an independent geopolitical risk consultant based in London. He has published extensively on U.S.-Russian relations and the evolution of Russian domestic and foreign policy.
In this discussion, they cover the local, regional, and geopolitical dynamics of this crisis in Eastern Europe, and to forecast the potential consequences of a new Russian campaign in Ukraine.
Since the Russian intervention in Crimea in the Black Sea region and the emergence of the Donbass conflict in 2014, Russia and Ukraine have locked horns over Russian-backed separatist forces that have seized large areas of Ukraine’s eastern and Russia-bordering Donbass region. Despite efforts to achieve mediation and a permanent cease-fire, the conflict has continued to simmer, with repeated clashes between Ukrainian soldiers and Russia-backed separatist forces in the border region, without spilling into open fighting between the two countries.
Recent Russian moves to deploy an estimated 4,000 personnel and a series of combat brigades, artillery, armor, and logistical units-from different parts of Russia to within close proximity of the Russian border with the Donbass has raised alarm bells in Kyiv, Brussels, and Washington. There is now concern that Russia may launch an offensive into Ukraine and increase aggressive behavior towards former Soviet satellite states in an attempt to carve out greater influence in its Eastern European periphery.
While Ukraine is not a NATO member and the U.S. advisory presence in Ukraine is small, a renewed Russian-backed military campaign in the Donbass region would impact the more than 72,000 U.S. military personnel who are deployed in Europe and threaten NATO’s interest in protecting European territorial integrity.
With no end in sight for the Syrian civil war, the country’s 6 million refugees and 6 million internally displaced peoples (IDPs) face an uncertain future. Those who have fled to other countries to escape the violence face deplorable conditions in refugee camps and years-long waits for resettlement, while IDPs live in constant fear of the ongoing hostilities in Syria. Compounding these issues is the COVID-19 pandemic, to which refugees and IDPs are all the more vulnerable given their lack of access to health services, as well as restricting travel. So what options do Syrian refugees have for relief? Dina Dajani, Deputy Director of the Newlines Institute's Displacement and Migration Program, speaks with Sahar Atrache, senior advocate for the Middle East at Refugees International, about the Syrian refugee crisis.
Atrache begins the conversation by relating the story of Reema, a Ph.D. student who fled Damascus with her three children and from there lived in Lebanon, Jordan, and eventually the United States. Reema applied for temporary protective status in 2016, but it still has not been approved, and her status is increasingly tenuous amid the Trump administration’s refugee policies.
Despite this, Reema is relatively lucky, Atrache says. Those scattered across the region in countries such as Lebanon, Turkey, and Greece are living in inhospitable conditions in refugee camps with little access to clean water, sanitation, or even adequate shelter. In Turkey, an economic downturn has turned people against refugees, who have faced attacks, assaults, lack of work, and deportation. The Turkish government also has used Syrian refugees in its political power struggles against the European Union.
These problems are exacerbated by countries that have begun to push back on accepting more refugees and push refugees to return to Syria, accompanied by a false narrative that the country has entered a period of relative stability. Atrache says that for many refugees, it is simply not possible to return home for fear of political oppression for their past dissent against the Syrian regime.
The situation is no better for IDPs, Atrache says, a significant number of whom are living in camps in Idlib province, the last stronghold of the opposition. Idlib has faced multiple offensives from the regime in the past year, which have displaced millions of people. The refugee camps are overcrowded and lack basic services, and the people living there feel trapped between the regime’s assaults on one side and the closed Turkish border on the other.
These issues have only been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has restricted travel between countries and threatened outbreaks at refugee camps. Atrache says there has not yet been a real COVID-19 outbreak in a refugee setting, but the consequences of one, if it happens, will be devastating because of the refugees’ lack of access to health services. These refugees already are feeling the economic impact of the pandemic, which is further restricting their access to already-scarce work.
For Syrian refugees in the United States, Atrache says a lot hinges on the upcoming presidential election. President Donald Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, have widely different views on Syrian refugees, with the Trump administration taking a hard line on accepting Syrians and other immigrants and Biden pledging to reverse the administration’s policies. If Trump wins re-election, the futures of Syrians in the United States such as Reema will become even more uncertain.
Kamran Bokhari and Faysal Itani discuss Lebanon’s multiple crises and the Beirut port explosion that served as a culmination of the problems the country is facing. Itani says the port explosion was the result of decades of corruption that led the Lebanese government and public services to failure. After the civil war, Lebanon functioned under an arrangement that was supposed to help the country transform to a liberal democracy, but that transformation never took place. Now, amid an unprecedented economic crisis, Itani says Lebanon is far from the path to recovery and is on the verge of becoming a “robber baron state” in which the elite divide the spoils of the economy and the population is left behind. There is a chance that the Lebanese elite could change and work more to benefit the people, Itani says – either out of a sense of enlightened self-interest, or out of fear of the pressure rising from the streets in the form of growing opposition. Itani also says that while the government may be lost, the regime – the overall structure that keeps business as usual operating in Lebanon – is very robust. Bokhari and Itani also discuss Hezbollah’s rise, its current role in both Lebanon and Syria, and how relations between Lebanon and Syria have morphed over the years.
Kamran Bokhari of the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy and Jacob Shapiro of Perch Perspectives touch on an array of topics, including how COVID has set the course for U.S.-China competition, the geopolitics of Black Lives Matter, and the shift toward a multipolar world. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated a handful of political forces that existed before the virus spread, Shapiro says, and locked the United States and China into a contentious relationship. Elsewhere in the world, the pandemic has created opportunities for some countries to strengthen their positions and in some cases form blocs with other nations as the world moves away from globalization and away from a situation in which the United States is the global superpower. The United States has abdicated its role as global leader, Shapiro says, and needs to look at internal issues like race relations in order to maintain a certain credibility on the world stage because the United States’ greatest strength is in leading by example rather than leading by coercion.
Millions of refugees were already in fragile situations before the pandemic began. Now with COVID-19 complicating access to healthcare and slowing the refugee and asylee pipelines to a trickle, displaced people face even more difficulties. Refugees and asylees understand the advent of COVID-19 increases their risk dramatically, both on the health front and related to their chances of accessing a secure living environment. Further, they are aware that common public health guidelines like social distancing and hand washing are not possible in crowded camps with limited facilities. Given the stark realities of being amongst the forced displaced during COVID-19, what options do refugees have, if any, and how can governments support them? Dina Dajani, Deputy Director of the Newlines Institute's Displacement and Migration Program, speaks with Devon Cone, Senior Advocate for Women and Girls at Refugees International, about these issues as they relate to refugees from Afghanistan.
Cone points out that Afghan refugees are the second largest refugee population in the world and one of the largest protracted refugee populations – refugees that have been displaced for a very long time. Afghan refugees have landed in many countries, with the majority in Iran and Pakistan. Iran and Pakistan are experiencing ongoing challenges containing the spread. Similar to refugee camps the world over, the camps in Iran and Pakistan have shortages of resources and space, leaving vulnerable Afghan refugees with limited access to health services. Facing ever increasing vulnerabilities in these camps, many Afghan refugees are choosing to leave camps to return to Afghanistan. However, this doesn’t count as repatriation, Cone says, which means people returning voluntarily and to a safe environment where they will not be persecuted. That is not the case in Afghanistan, which is one of the most dangerous countries in the world, she says.
Alternatively, the refugee camps on the Greek Islands are in relatively good shape in that there have not been any reported cases of COVID-19 in the camps yet, Cone says. However, there are still 40,000 people in overcrowded camps that lack sewage and running water and have inadequate healthcare. And because of restrictions created by the response to the pandemic, asylum seekers’ cases are not moving at all, so they are waiting in conditions that are ripe for an outbreak of COVID-19.
Cone says that to improve the situation for Afghan refugees, the United States could ensure that the assistance it gives other countries includes refugees, asylum seekers, and undocumented refugees. She points out that there is a special visa program that focuses on Afghans who worked with the United States in support of U.S. operations in Afghanistan, and because of those actions it is no longer safe for them to be in their home country. She also says that while resettlement is likely to resume once COVID-19 travel restrictions ease up, the United States should allow more Afghan refugees into the country under its annual presidential determination.
The Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy is proud to release this Special Edition of its podcast series, The Lodestar, which is a joint production with the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA) at the National Defense University (NDU). Newlines Institute's Kamran Bokhari sat down with Hassan Abbas, NESA distinguished professor and Newlines Institute's Senior Fellow to discuss the state of negotiations for peace in Afghanistan. Abbas, who recently wrote a Special Analysis for Newlines on the subject, argues that all the regional players and outside stakeholders – including the United States, Russia, and China – need to have a seat at the table to negotiate with the Taliban. Pakistan, India, Iran, China, Russia, and the United States are all involved in Afghanistan in some form, but all these players except the U.S. feel they have been left out of negotiations, Abbas says. Each one of these powers has developed its own ties to Afghanistan, whether in terms of alliances or investments. These ties have allowed them to try to push their own agendas within Afghanistan. Even Qatar has become involved, supporting the Taliban by providing them a base. In the meantime, the Taliban have become a multitude, with various branches, Abbas says. There is more than one Taliban, and that will complicate matters for any parties trying to reach a peace deal in Afghanistan. Although Pakistan has supported the Afghan Taliban, they are not in control of the various segments of the Taliban. India will play an important role in controlling Iran’s involvement in any Afghan peace talks in order to bridge the gap between Tehran and Washington. And of course, Russia and China’s involvement in peace negotiations would be very important from the U.S. security perspective. Abbas says that the constant flux in Afghanistan shows that if all the stakeholders are not on the same page in working toward peace in the country, instability, chaos, and violence will continue.
Kamran Bokhari sits down with Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff, executive director of People Demand Change about developments in Syria, particularly the Idlib Province. Bokhari describes Idlib as a “multi-player battlespace,” where numerous different forces such as jihadists, Syrian rebels, Russians, and Syrian regime forces are at work.
Ghosh-Siminoff notes that it is important for people to grasp the complexities of Idlib, which has been under opposition control for about eight and a half years. Not only are numerous forces present in the area, but the opposition-controlled space known as Idlib actually contains bits and pieces of other provinces, and the space has expanded and retracted repeatedly. Ghosh-Siminoff points out that 3 million people are living in “Greater Idlib,” and between 60 and 80 percent of them are women and children. After the regime regained some territory, the area where these 3 million internally displaced persons are living is half what it once was.
Idlib has become something of a depository for defeated rebel fighters and others who remain unreconciled with the Syrian regime. The only choice they were given, Ghosh-Siminoff says, was to go to Idlib – an area that has been bombed repeatedly by Syrian and Russian forces. The years of bombing campaigns have wrecked the infrastructure in Idlib so that there is no healthcare system or educational system to speak of. Moreover, the makeup of the population of Idlib – mostly women and children – shows that the rationale for the continued bombings – that they are targeting terrorists – is spurious, Ghosh-Siminoff says: “This is about emptying a piece of geographic space of people who oppose the Assad regime.”
Turkey is in a difficult position; it has already taken in 3 million Syrian refugees, and economic and political factors make taking in another 3 million untenable. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in such a position that he cannot appear weak and cannot let these refugees into his country.
Russia’s long game in Syria likely involves using the ongoing conflict as a wedge to separate Turkey and the United States – if not to pry Turkey away from NATO entirely. The United States’ inaction, despite Turkey’s requests for guidance and a proactive solution to the Syria crisis, is a sore point for the Turkish government, as is Europe’s displeasure with taking in 800,000 refugees when Turkey has taken in millions, Ghosh-Siminoff says.
He also says that U.S. government officials argue that if the Assad regime falls without an organized opposition to take over or a plan for Syria’s future, the situation in Syria will be worse than it is now. However, Ghosh-Siminoff says, the inaction in Syria has created a crisis that has affected the entire Middle East and created unintended consequences for Europe’s political situation. Moreover, a lack of a solution in Syria has left an opening for Salafist-jihadist ideology to take over. As Syrians assess their situation and wonder why no one has helped them, why they were “trapped in this death camp that Syria has become,” Ghosh-Siminoff says, that ideology offers answers. He concludes by saying that leaving millions of young people at the mercy of that ideology will create a long-term security crisis.
Newlines Institute's Kamran Bokhari talks with Dr. Muqtedar Khan, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware and a Newlines Institute Senior Fellow (2019-20), about his new book, Islam & Good Governance: A Political Philosophy of Ihsan.
Professor Khan says he was prompted to write the book by two factors. The first was a realization that bad governance is the reason why Muslim countries are in such bad shape -- something he says is reflected in millions of Muslims’ “voting by their feet” and leaving the Muslim world to live elsewhere. The second factor, Khan says, is that the desire to bring Islam into the public sphere has led to some “unfortunate experiments” like al Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have harmed not only Muslim societies but the broader world. The book articulates ways in which to bring Islam into the public sphere as a force for love and compassion rather than tension, Khan says.
Ihsan, Khan explains, is a concept that has been translated as meaning charity, compassion, generosity, and doing beautiful things; he takes it to mean “to worship Allah as if you see Him, and if you cannot see Him, recognize that He is seeing you.” Khan proposes in his book to take that concept and apply it to governance. Ihsan comes into play, he explains, when Muslims act out of love for God, not out of fear for God, as those who think of Allah as a “big brother waiting for you to do something wrong so He can send you to Hell.” Ihsan is a way to manifest God’s love and goodness in the world.
Dr. Khan discusses the Islamic resurgence -- the movement to “Make Islam Great Again,” which he compares to the “Make America Great Again” slogan in the United States. Rather than looking for a path to a better future, Islamists are turning to an imagined past glory of the Muslim world. As an example, Khan notes that Islamic universities are not marketed as being great research centers or places where problems like poverty can be solved; they are marketed as places where women will wear the hijab and men will learn Arabic and recite the Qu’ran. The focus is on external identity markers, Khan says, rather than on actions and solutions.
Khan says that he advocates for a secular state, where freedom is provided to everyone and where religious groups are free to make policy recommendations that would be welcome as long as they benefit everyone and are democratically agreed upon. He also notes that Islamists want to force their idea of Islam on others because they know it is not appealing. Democracy appeals to Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, and Jews, Khan says; a political philosophy that states a ruler has to come from a particular tribe is not appealing and is not a universal ideal.
Using Prophet Muhammad’s 10 years of rule in the city of Madinah as a model; Khan says the Prophet governed with consent, had a constitution and consulted the people. None of that fits with Islamists’ ideals. Khan says there is a fear of freedom in the Muslim culture, and that he wants people to live free from that fear and to exist in a state of ihsan -- “as if you have made eye contact with God.”