Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded: Recent Episodes
Moody's Investors Service
Moody’s experts from around the globe join hosts Ariane Ortiz-Bollin and Thaddeus Best to discuss key economic, financial and credit trends shaping emerging markets. Published by Moody's Investors Service.
AI may have begun as a technology race, but it is increasingly becoming a race for capital and infrastructure. As hyperscalers invest at unprecedented levels, a SpaceX IPO and potential offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic, are offering new insights into the financing needs, transparency and credit dynamics shaping the industry's next phase.
Host: Chandra Ghosal, Vice President, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Kevin McNeil, Vice President, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Hyperscalers' asset-heavy model spurs borrowing, equity sales https://www.moodys.com/research/Artificial-Intelligence-Technology-US-Hyperscalers-asset-heavy-model-spurs-borrowing-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1490738 22 July 2026
- Infographic: Massive CapEx feeding data center ecosystem https://www.moodys.com/research/doc--PBC_1486517
- Hyperscaler capex to near $1 trillion in 2027, fueling AI growth, memory shortage https://www.moodys.com/research/Artificial-Intelligence-Data-Centers-US-Hyperscaler-capex-to-near-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1483702 11 May 2026
- Hyperscalers' reported AI-related lease commitments may understate economic risk https://www.moodys.com/research/Accounting-US-Hyperscalers-reported-AI-related-lease-commitments-may-understate-economic-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1467708 23 February 2026
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Instant, low-cost cross-border payments are moving closer to reality as blockchain, stablecoins and tokenization reshape financial infrastructure. This episode explores how distributed ledger technology can enable faster, more transparent transactions while improving liquidity management through automation and smart contracts.
Adoption remains gradual, with regulatory uncertainty, interoperability challenges and the need for market confidence continuing to shape progress. The discussion also examines Moody’s stablecoin methodology, the role of AI in fraud detection and liquidity forecasting, and key risks across technology, cybersecurity and regulation.
Featuring insights from Moody’s analysts Greg Sobel and Lucas Viegas.
Host: Greg Sobel, Vice President, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Lucas Viegas, Vice President, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- https://www.moodys.com/research/Digital-Transformation-Europe-A-significant-step-for-the-retail-digital-Sector-Comment--PBC_1486057
- https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/credit-risk/digital-economy/tokenization-will-change-us-transaction-flows.html
- https://www.moodys.com/research/Financial-Institutions-Latin-America-Regions-adoption-of-digital-assets-expands-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1454933
- https://www.moodys.com/research/Digital-Economy-Cross-Region-AI-agents-with-digital-cash-would-Sector-In-Depth--PBC_1414649
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Is the US economy increasingly dependent on high-income consumers?
In this episode of “Credit Currents,” Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, and Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody’s Ratings, examine the reality of the K-shaped economy.
They explore how the top 20% of earners now drive roughly 60% of spending, while lower-income households face mounting pressure from rising costs of essentials like food, fuel and housing.
From premium airline demand to tightening credit conditions and weakening real income growth, this episode highlights why economic growth may appear stable, but is becoming increasingly fragile and concentrated.
Host:
Patrick Ronk, Vice President, Moody’s Ratings
Guests:
Mark Zandi,Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Global Macro Outlook (May 2026 Update) - Global energy market stress weighs on growth prospects
- The State of the Consumer (March 2026) – US - Higher energy prices and a narrowing consumption base pose risks to spending
- The State of the Consumer (May 2026) – Europe - Middle East conflict will weaken consumer confidence and nascent economic recovery
- Geopolitical Risk – Global - Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption through autumn broadens credit stress
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Private credit has hit a speed bump in the US, where the market is rapidly pivoting from growth to stricter risk discipline.
At our flagship “Credit Frontiers” event, we sat down with Moody’s leaders to discuss what’s behind these “bad vibes” about private credit and what they’re hearing from market participants about the trajectory of the asset class.
Host: Giulia Calcabrini, Assistant Vice President, Analyst, Moody’s Ratings
Guests:
- Marc Pinto, Managing Director, Global Head of Private Credit, Moody’s Ratings
- David Hamilton, Managing Director, Head of Asset Management Research, Moody’s Analytics
Related Research:
- Private Credit – Global – Volatility will intensify focus on liquidity, transparency 22 April 2026
- Private Credit – Global – Seven key ways private credit is changing 14 May 2026
- Private Credit – US – Asset quality indicators point to emerging risk in private credit direct lending 28 April 2026
- Moody’s Private Credit Insights
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What comes next for sustainable finance debt markets?
The energy transition’s momentum has shifted towards more pragmatic rationales, including energy security, sovereignty and critical supply chain resilience.
In this episode, we discuss why, despite headwinds arising from global trade tensions, Asia remains a contributing force for the “pragmatic transition”, the favorable conditions supporting renewable investment, as well as the opportunities for both the public and private sectors.
Host: Giulia Calcabrini, Assistant Vice President, Analyst, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Rahul Ghosh, Managing Director, Head of Global Sustainable Finance & Emerging Markets, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Sustainable bond issuance on track to be flat versus 2025 levels after mixed quarter (Data Story) 12 May 2026
- Carbon Transition – Asia-Pacific – Transition finance to expand as credible pathways emerge 19 March 2026
- APAC Sustainable Finance Summit 2026 (Replay) 24 March 2026
- In Person Event: Unlocking Capital for Climate Resilience: From Data to Decisions - London Climate Action Week 24 June 2026
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Asset tokenization and digital money, including stablecoins, are moving from the margins of finance toward the core of market infrastructure, spurring banks and other market participants to adapt their approach to blockchain technology.
In this episode of Credit Currents, we explore why trust and regulation are central to adoption of tokenized assets, and how a gradual move in this direction could reshape payments, settlement and credit markets.
The conversation explores both the promise of faster, always‑on transactions and the practical challenges that will shape how quickly digital finance takes hold.
Host: Greg Sobel, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Donald Robertson, Managing Director, Financial Institutions, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Financial Institutions – US: Tokenization will change US transaction flows; less likely to remove intermediaries,11 May 2026
- Financial Institutions – US: US financial markets envision an inevitable shift to tokenized assets and digital money,12 May 2026
- Digital Economy – Global: Growing stablecoin use highlights policy, liquidity and price vulnerabilities,13 May 2026
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There could be big changes coming to longstanding bank regulations. With earnings season heating up, the discussion over capital rules is back in focus.
Credit Currents is on the ground in Washington, D.C. as the world's top policymakers and regulators attend meetings with the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Institute of International Finance (IIF).
We unpack what looser capital requirements could mean, the implications for credit, and how regulators and the US Federal Reserve are responding.
Host: Chandra Ghosal, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Megan Fox, Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Banks – US – Proposed changes to risk-based capital requirements will likely be credit negative 18 March 2026
- Banks – US – New philosophy of US banking supervision and regulation is credit negative 23 March 2026
- Banks – US – A policy shift on liquidity regulation would have mixed credit implications 13 March 2026
- Banking – US – Solid bank results likely in 2026, though sensitive to widening tail risk 16 March 2026
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A temporary truce between the US and Iran is contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions to global supply chains, energy markets, oil prices and various sectors are still risks to credit quality.
In our latest episode of Credit Currents, taped hours before the news broke, we discuss the ways geopolitical shocks ripple through sectors, whether there could be an impact on issuer ratings or outlooks, and why some sectors like defense are less affected.
Host: Chandra Ghosal, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Nick Hill, Global Head of Credit Strategy and Guidance, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Geopolitical risk – Global – Prolonged disruption in the Middle East would have global credit implications 26 March 2026
- Corporate default rate would likely rise if Middle East conflict is prolonged 26 March 2026
- Sovereigns – Global: Middle East shock will test sovereigns with limited credit buffers 8 April 2026
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Streaming giant Netflix withdrew its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery on the eve of this year’s Oscars, but it doesn’t mean Paramount has won the battle for dominance over the media landscape. Regulators still must approve the deal, and Paramount’s offer comes with huge debt.
In this first episode of Credit Currents, a new video podcast series from Moody’s Ratings, we reveal the stakes at play for traditional film and TV studios, the exponential value of intellectual property (IP), and how massive acquisitions can create credit risk.
We also consider the potentially significant impact of AI on viewing habits and customer preferences.
Host: Patrick Ronk, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Emile El Nems, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Media, Telecommunications – US – Media's significant consolidation, streaming shift continue; more telecom competition 2 Feb 2026
- Corporates | Media & Publishing - Netflix, Inc. - Credit Opinion – Update to credit analysis following affirmation and changing outlook to stable 29 Dec 2025
- Media & Publishing – US – Large streamers thriving amid intense competition, smaller streamers at risk 16 April 2025
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Streaming giant Netflix withdrew its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery on the eve of this year’s Oscars, but it doesn’t mean Paramount has won the battle for dominance over the media landscape. Regulators still must approve the deal, and Paramount’s offer comes with huge debt.
In this first episode of Credit Currents, a new video podcast series from Moody’s Ratings launching on April 2, 2026, we reveal the stakes at play for traditional film and TV studios, the exponential value of intellectual property (IP), and how massive acquisitions can create credit risk.
We also consider the potentially significant impact of AI on viewing habits and customer preferences.
Host: Patrick Ronk, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings
Guest: Emile El Nems, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
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Corporate and sovereign default rates are decreasing as GDP growth, slowing inflation and monetary easing aid debt management. But EMs face a number of credit risks including potential US tariffs.
Guest: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings
Host: Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Emerging Markets – Global: 2025 Outlook - Stable but fragile, with looming credit risks
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In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.
Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings
Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings
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Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels.
Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
- Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance is key to realising credit benefits for new hydrocarbon producers
- Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Institutional reforms are supporting creditworthiness for select sovereigns
Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments.
Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
- Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments
India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.
Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
- Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory diverges
- Nonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fall
- Nonfinancial Companies – India: Offshore funding indispensable despite improving domestic liquidity
Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers.
Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings
Related research:
- Oil & Gas – Latin America & Caribbean: National oil companies struggle to reconcile governments' emission-reduction goals
Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.
Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings
Related Research:
- Moody's Ratings takes rating actions on eight Turkish corporates following upgrade of Turkiye sovereign rating
- Government of Turkiye – B1 positive: Update following upgrade to B1, outlook remains positive
- Government of Turkiye: Macro-financial monitor: CBRT tightening shows first results, but more is needed to moderate inflation
- Moody's Ratings upgrades Turkiye's ratings to B1, maintains positive outlook
- Government of Turkiye: Announced policy shift is credit positive but implementation comes with challenges
The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.
Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings
Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Moody's Ratings downgrades Kenya's ratings to Caa1; maintains negative outlook
- Government of Kenya: Protests against Finance Bill's tax measures challenge government's fiscal consolidation strategy
- Government of Kenya: Kenya's IMF agreement bolsters short-term liquidity; fiscal consolidation is key to improving credit quality
- Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions
We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.
Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Emerging Markets – Global: GDP growth stays solid; disinflation slows
- Global Macro Outlook 2024-25 (May 2024 update): G-20 momentum persists in 2024 with disinflation and cooler growth ahead
The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.
Guest: Aurelien Mali, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's Ratings
Related research:
- Government of South Africa: National unity government will likely support broad policy continuity and the pursuit of economic reforms
Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots.
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Fragile recovery in EM credit conditions will continue
- Emerging Markets – Global: Local currency bond markets are growing fast, a credit-positive trend for debt issuers
- Sovereigns – Emerging Markets: Favorable financing conditions will not solve structural credit challenges
- Government-Related Issuers – Emerging Markets: GRIs’ standalone credit strength and government support vary widely across EMs
- Banks – Emerging Markets: Asset-quality risk is receding but remains high in several countries
To learn more, visit the Emerging Markets topic page.
Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets.
Guests: Maciej Woznica, Portfolio Manager, Coeli
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Gradual recovery in emerging market credit conditions will continue (infographic)
The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes.
Guest: Yang Liu, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's Ratings
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings
Related Research:
- Corporates – Emerging Markets: EM corporate default rate will fall further in 2024 and approach advanced economy rate
- Default Trends – Global: Annual default study: Corporate default rate to moderate in 2024 but remain near its long-term average
Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.
Guests: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Ratings
Related research:
- Tail risks from Israel-Iran conflict pose a major threat to sovereigns regionally and globally
- Islamic finance sector will retain strong momentum in 2024
- Sukuk issuance to decline again in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025
- Strong US dollar sukuk issuance is positive for companies' capital raising efforts
- Islamic finance's adoption of blockchain could be beneficial, but faces crucial barriers
Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.
Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings
Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings
It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.
Guest: Gong Cheng, Managing Director - Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings
China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.
Guests: Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ruosha Li, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Ratings
Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.
Speaker: Mickaël Gondrand, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.
Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Related Research:
- State-contingent debt instruments can aid debt restructuring, but can carry fiscal risks
Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.
Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service
Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.
Speakers: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Rehan Akbar, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Investors Service
Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.
Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director - Global Sovereign Risk - Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.
Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody’s Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody’s Investors Service
EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.
Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.
Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Related research:
- Federal Reserve on hold for longer implies slower pivot to policy easing for some EMs
This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.
Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Elisa Parisi-Capone, Vice President - Senior Analyst - Sovereigns, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.
Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Steffen Dyck, Senior Vice President -- Sovereigns, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director -- Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico’s industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon’s coup factored into its outlook change.
Speakers: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody's Investors Service and Mickaël Gondrand, Analyst – Sovereigns, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns’ debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.
Speakers: Thorsten Nestmann, Senior Vice President - Group Credit Officer, Sovereigns and Christopher Bredholt, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Public Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
BSI Fund Chief Investment Officer Kojo Amoo-Gottfried joins Emerging Markets Decoded to discuss emerging markets topics including the macro perspective and investor sentiment toward the asset class.
Speaker: Kojo Amoo-Gottfried, Chief Investment Officer, BSI Fund
Hosts: Scott Phillips, AMD – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investor’s Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.
Speakers: Lillian Li, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jessie Tung, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss the credit effects of South Africa’s energy crisis, including macro and social implications, as well as the government’s plans to address the crisis.
Speakers: Aurelien Mali, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Joanna Fic, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss updates to long-term sovereign debt forecasts, accounting for recent market conditions, including higher inflation and interest rates.
Speaker: Lucie Villa, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Related Research:
- Frontier markets' debt sustainability at stake; political economy drives debt paths for some
Special guests Lee C. Buchheit and David Lubin share their insights on emerging market sovereign debt crises, the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency, China’s evolving economy and more.
Speakers: Lee C. Buchheit, Professor, University of Edinburgh; David Lubin, Head of EM Economics, Citi, Associate Fellow at Chatham House
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss India’s growing manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, favorable demographics and potential to achieve significant scale across multiple sectors in the next decade.
Speaker: Kaustubh Chaubal, Senior Vice President – Corporate Finance, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Related research:
- Growing industrial sector will drive economy, but may face investment hurdles
Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to natural capital and biodiversity loss, why emerging markets are more at risk than advanced economies and which sectors are most exposed.
Speakers: Lucia Lopez, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Rahul Ghosh, MD – Sustainable Finance, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to the social contract, and how a weakening in the contract is often associated with credit deterioration in the countries where it takes place.
Speakers: Elisa Parisi-Capone, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; David Rogovic, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody's analysts explore two downside scenarios to frame the likely impact of a US recession on EM corporates, combining lessons from past downturns with the many changes to the credit landscape in the years since.
Speakers: Kelvin Dalrymple, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Moody's Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts explore the key themes and policy issues likely to be at the center of the upcoming World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, including banking turmoil, tightening credit, ESG and more.
Speaker: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors Service
Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate decision and response to banking stress, recession risks and more.
Speaker: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Host: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service
Moody’s analysts discuss recent developments in the US and European banking systems, the implications for monetary policy and potential spillovers to emerging markets across the globe.
Speakers: Donald Robertson, AMD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Nick Hill, MD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service
Hosts: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service
For related research, visit the Global Banking System Outlook topic page.
As financial pressures mount in a time of higher rates and slowing growth, Moody’s will continue to share our analysis of evolving trends and repercussions for banks around the world.
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Nitish Bhojnagarwala of the Financial Institutions team and special guest Sohail Ali of DLA Piper join host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for Islamic finance across emerging markets. Plus, they dive into the intersection of ESG and Islamic finance, and the risks associated with “green” sukuk issuance.
Related research:
- Islamic finance sector will remain resilient despite tight global financial conditions
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ighosime Oyofo and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team and Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team join host Scott Phillips to discuss the credit implications of Nigeria’s presidential elections, with a focus on the banking system and the sovereign.
Related research
- Government of Nigeria: Election disputes will delay policies to address Nigeria's pressing credit challenges
- Naira redesign policy creates some operational challenges for Nigerian banks
In this episode of Moody's Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Scott Phillips of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss a recent turn of events for emerging market credit conditions, including some easing in financial conditions, with inflation, yields and spreads all lower than at the end of 2022, despite continued volatility. They explore what recent events mean for debt issuers in emerging and frontier economies and reveal which sovereigns are still at risk of default.
Related Research:
- Tight financing conditions will continue challenging frontier markets' credit strength
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of political unrest in Peru, how it compares to recent events in Brazil and credit distress in Argentina. Plus, Valeria Azconegui of Moody’s Local shares insights from the ground.
Related research:
- Government of Argentina: External market debt buyback amounts to a distressed exchange
- Government of El Salvador: Second debt buyback amounts to a distressed e:xchange, small transaction amount illustrates liquidity stress
- Government of Brazil: Brazil's political polarization is credit negative
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian Fang and Alex Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the outlook for sovereigns across the Middle East and North Africa. Plus, they explore how recent developments in Iran could affect the rest of the region.
Related research:
- 2023 outlook negative as inflation, high interest rates broadly raise credit risks
- 2023 outlook positive as high oil prices bolster finances, provide space for reforms
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Gene Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for credit conditions in China as it lifts Covid restrictions and reopens its economy, with a special focus on regional and local governments, the property sector, as well as potential implications for other emerging markets.
Related research:
- 2023 outlook negative as debt, contingent liabilities build, land sales remain weak
- Sustained slowdown in China will have large spillovers to the rest of APAC and beyond
- China Property Focus: Supportive policies will take time to have an impact on sales
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team join host Scott Phillips to discuss credit dynamics in Africa amid the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington DC. Plus, Matt Pirnie, Head of Ratings at GCR Ratings joins as a special guest to discuss the biggest risks and potential bright spots facing corporate issuers in Sub-Saharan Africa.
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Deborah Tan of the Credit Strategy & Research team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss what a sustained economic growth slowdown in China implies for the rest of the world, particularly the Asia-Pacific region and lower-income countries that rely on Chinese investment flows.
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the 2023 outlook for emerging market credit conditions, with a focus on governments, companies and banks.
Related research:
- 2023 Outlook - Negative credit conditions leave weaker debt issuers exposed
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ana Rayes of the ESG team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the potential social ramifications of climate action, and explore the relative readiness of emerging market sovereigns for a socially just carbon transition.
Related research:
- Sovereigns' readiness for a “just transition” varies, as does associated credit impact
- Governments have made policy progress toward net zero, but energy crisis will complicate implementation
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Samar Maziad of the Sovereign team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of Brazil’s recent presidential elections for the sovereign, banks and companies.
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best of the Emerging Markets team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss how tight financial conditions and capital outflows from emerging markets are affecting lower-rated issuers’ ability to refinance maturing international bonds.
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the fiscal and social implications of a sustained period of high inflation and interest rates globally for non-investment-grade emerging market sovereigns.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Non-Investment-Grade Sovereigns – Global Headwinds raise credit pressures
- Currency depreciation highlights a range of risks across the rating spectrum
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla and Petter Bryman of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss which Central and Eastern European countries are most at risk of stagflation and how such a scenario would impact sovereign credit profiles.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Credit-negative stagflation scenario now more likely in the EU, but country-specific exposures vary
- Looming gas crisis intensifies credit pressures for Europe’s most exposed sovereigns
- Government of Romania – Baa3 stable Regular update
- Government of Hungary – Baa2 stable Regular update
- Government of Poland – A2 stable Update following rating affirmation, outlook unchange
- Government of Slovakia – A2 negative: Update following outlook change to negative, rating affirmation
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy and Research team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the latest update to Moody’s global macroeconomic outlook, with a focus on G20 emerging markets. Plus, Kathrin Muehlbronner and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team do a deep dive into Turkiye and Argentina – two of the largest emerging markets facing extraordinarily high levels of inflation.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Global growth slackens as tighter financial conditions permeate the economy
- FAQ on external position, and economic and fiscal outlook
- Unorthodox monetary policy fuels high inflation in Argentina and Turkiye, but key differences remain
- Economic outlook dampens as financial conditions deteriorate
In this episode of Moody’s Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team and Anushka Shah of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the resilience of most emerging markets to tightening financial conditions, as well as the implications for reform prospects in lower-income countries.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Most EMs will avert debt crisis but frontier markets are exposed to turning credit cycle
- Some lower-income economies have strengthened their credit quality through a range of policies
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Ada Li and Roxana Munoz of the Infrastructure and Project Finance team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how climate change is undermining green and conventional power generation.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- APAC power utilities’ credit quality under pressure from rising physical climate risks
- Hydropower development will peak in 2022; environmental risks limit expansion
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Leroy Terrelonge of the Cyber Risk team and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss rising cyber risks for emerging markets and recent attacks on Costa Rica’s government.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Government of Costa Rica: FAQ on the sovereign credit implications of recent cyberattacks
- Government of Costa Rica: Cyberattack disabling key government services is credit negative
- Cyber Risk – Global: Broad sanctions against Russia raise risks of financially motivated cyberattacks
- Global – Cyber Risk: Russia-Ukraine tensions increase cyber risks across regions, asset classes
- Cyber Risk – Global: Cyber risk survey of issuers finds growing investments, but gaps in preparedness
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Renzo Merino of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and state-owned oil company.
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Martin Petch of the Sovereign team and Franco Leung of the Corporates team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the implications of China’s property sector stress and economic slowdown for global growth.
Analysts Renzo Merino and Nymia Almeida join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the policy proposals of the candidates vying to be Colombia’s next president and how rising social risks may lead to policy changes with important credit implications.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1328181
- https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1324262
- https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1320228
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Global Emerging Markets team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss key takeaways from Moody’s recent Global Emerging Markets Summit. Plus, Rachel Chua of the Corporates team reveals which emerging market companies are most exposed to spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, and which stand to benefit.
Related content on Moodys.com
(some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1330110
https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1326788
https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1327363
https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1323369
https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1323216
https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1327228
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Aurelien Mali and Kathrin Muehlbronner of the Sovereign team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the sociopolitical ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis for the Middle East and Africa by drawing lessons from a similar global food and energy price shock in 2008. Plus, they discuss how the conflict is exacerbating an already precarious situation in Turkey.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Sovereigns – Middle East & Africa: Global food and energy price shock raises risk of political and social unrest fueled by rising inflation
- Government of Turkey: FAQ on Turkey's vulnerability to Russia-Ukraine conflict
- Banks, securities firms, finance companies – Global: Ripple effects from Ukraine crisis are creating harsher business conditions
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Christian de Guzman and Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereign team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how Russia’s military conflict with Ukraine is affecting Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sovereigns, as well as what stress tests on borrowing costs, exchange rates and capital flows tell us about the sovereigns most exposed to heightened risk aversion.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Sovereigns – Commonwealth of Independent States: Sharp recession in Russia poses immediate sustained risks to CIS credit quality
- Sovereigns – Global: Frontier, oil-importing MENA sovereigns are most exposed to an extended funding shock
- Emerging Markets – Global Russia-Ukraine shock amplifies pandemic-led credit deterioration for many sovereigns
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Steve Wood from the Corporates team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss how the Russia-Ukraine conflict is affecting the global oil and gas sector, and what this means for carbon transition. Plus, Adrian Garza from the Project and Infrastructure Finance team discusses how a major policy shift in Mexico’s energy sector will delay the move to cleaner energy, weighing on the sovereign, companies and banks.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Oil & Gas – Global: FAQ on how ESG considerations affect energy sector credit quality
- Carbon Transition – Mexico: Policy shift will dampen private investment, delaying country’s path to cleaner energy
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Mickael Gondrand of the Sovereign team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the credit implications of rising food prices for emerging and frontier markets. Plus, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team discusses the reasons why emerging markets are more likely to be able to withstand tightening global financial conditions than in the past.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Sovereigns – Emerging & Frontier Markets: High food prices will exacerbate macroeconomic challenges, raise social risks; Middle East & Africa most exposed
- Emerging Markets - Global: Financial Conditions Monitor: March 2022
- Credit Conditions – Global Five areas to watch as the US Federal Reserve embarks on a rate-hike cycle
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla of the Sovereign team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss the potential credit implications of central bank digital currencies. Plus, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team discusses the risks associated with El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, and its upcoming Bitcoin bond issuance.
Related Reports
Government of El Salvador: Bitcoin bond issuance carries significant risks for potential investors and conventional bondholders
Central bank digital currencies offer sovereigns opportunity to improve policy effectiveness and economic performance
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss new risks to the global macroeconomic outlook from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Plus, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discusses the credit implications of less economic scarring from the pandemic.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Russia-Ukraine crisis injects new risks into global economic outlook
- As COVID crisis recedes, global economy downshifts toward trend growth
- Energy ties raise risks, but credit impact from limited Russia-Ukraine conflict is low
- Stronger economic recovery will reduce but not eliminate scarring for most sovereigns
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Evan Wohlmann and Petter Bryman of the Sovereign team, and Olga Ulyanova of the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the credit implications of rising tensions between Western countries and Russia over the latter’s military buildup on its border with Ukraine.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Sovereign – Russia & Ukraine: FAQ on heightened tensions and an outright conflict between Russia & Ukraine
- Banks – Russia: Russian banks' proprietary investments lose value as geopolitical risks rattle markets
- Sovereigns – Europe: Energy ties raise risks, but credit impact from limited Russia-Ukraine conflict is low
- Banking System Outlook Update – Russia: Outlook changed to stable as economic recovery supports asset quality, profitability
In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best from the Credit Strategy and Research team and Alexander Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of the decline in foreign direct investment flows across emerging markets. Plus, they discuss how growing global commitments to carbon transition will increase credit risks for hydrocarbon-reliant sovereigns.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Emerging Markets – Global FDI flows to emerging markets face structural headwinds, weighing on growth potential
- Sovereigns – Hydrocarbon exporters Strengthening global commitment to carbon transition increases longer-term credit risks
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ruosha Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team, Barbara Mattos from the Corporates team and Ana Rayes from the ESG team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the gap in emerging markets’ climate financing needs and sources, as well as the rising social and environmental risks that deforestation poses to businesses in Brazil.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Sovereigns – Emerging markets - Concessional and market-based financing vastly undershoots climate-resilience funding needs
- Corporates – Latin America & Caribbean - Deforestation intensifies reputational risk for companies operating in Brazil
In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Lillian Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team and Lina Choi from the Corporates team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss how China’s common prosperity framework and new antitrust regulations will shape the credit outlook for the sovereign and businesses.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Government Policy – China - 'Common prosperity' agenda will create transition risks, with longer-term benefits if well implemented
- Technology Services – China - Antitrust regulations limit market-share expansion and reduce earnings growth
Aurelien Mali of the Sovereign team and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez of the Credit Strategy team discuss the outlook for Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and African banks as they grapple with the pandemic’s lasting effect on the region’s economies.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa - 2022 outlook negative amid fragile recovery, persistent external risks and limited scope for adjustment
- Banks – Africa - Problem loans will deteriorate moderately with limited impact on capital for most African banks
Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the outlook for global emerging markets, noting that while credit conditions will stabilize in 2022, high leverage, inflation and deteriorating financial conditions will increase risks for weaker countries and sectors.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Emerging Markets – Global 2022 Outlook – Multispeed recovery with stark differences across regions and sectors
Barbara Mattos of the Corporate Finance team and Farooq Khan of the Financial Institutions team discuss the mixed credit implications of rising commodity prices, rising inflation and political risk for companies and banks across Latin America.
Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):
- Credit Conditions – Latin America & Caribbean: Credit quality will remain strong in region despite weaker growth prospects
- Cross-Sector – Argentina: Companies, utilities, sub-sovereigns struggle with inflation, weak growth in 2022
- Cross-Sector – Brazil: Strong balance sheets and liquidity support credit quality by 2022 amid macro risks
- Cross-Sector – Chile: Corporate credit quality will hold firm in 2022 as economy emerges from pandemic
- Cross-Sector – Mexico: Solid growth supports corporate income and debt reduction, easing leverage in 2022
- Cross-Sector – Peru: Companies regain footing through 2022, but investors will hesitate on policy risks
Gary Lau of the Corporate Finance team and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy and Research team discuss China Evergrande’s financial troubles and the credit implications for China’s property market, banks, government and potential spillovers to the global economy.
Inside this episode:
- Gary Lau on the impact of the Evergrande situation on the broader property market in China (begins at 3:42)
- Michael Taylor discusses whether there could be a risk of deterioration of sovereign credit quality (begins at 7:17)
Related content:
Credit Conditions – China: Government actions on Evergrande likely to avoid financial, social instability but not preclude economic costs
Macroeconomics – Global Investors face recurring market volatility and uncertainty in coming quarters
Regional & Local Governments - China: Evergrande's credit distress and property sector slowdown will hurt RLG revenue, fiscal strength
Property – China: China Property Focus: Refinancing risk builds up as tight credit conditions continue
Samar Maziad of the Sovereign team discusses the cost effectiveness and advantages of social safety nets when responding to shocks. Plus, Jennifer Wong of the Sub-Sovereign team explains why emerging market regional and local governments face particularly high social risks.
Inside this episode:
- Samar Maziad of the Sovereign team discusses the cost effectiveness and advantages of social safety nets when responding to shocks. (begins at 1:20)
- Jennifer Wong of the Sub-Sovereign team explains why emerging market regional and local governments face particularly high social risks. (begins at 7:27)
Related content:
- Sovereigns – Emerging Markets: Social safety nets support credit quality by improving response to shocks, reducing social tensions- Well-targeted safety nets improve governments' response to shocks, mitigating the severity of economic disruption. The availability and effectiveness of these programs vary widely.
- Regional and local governments: Emerging markets Infrastructure gap, inequality, weak labor markets underpin exposure to social risks - Given the scale of these challenges and the limited fiscal flexibility of emerging market RLGs, social considerations will continue to weigh on credit profiles for many years.
- Sovereigns – Global Explanatory Comment: New scores depict varied and largely credit-negative impact of ESG factors- Considering exposure to environmental and social risk, governance strength, and financial and institutional buffers, ESG factors commonly have a negative impact on sovereign ratings.
Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses inflation and financial stability risks in emerging markets. Plus, Nitish Bhojnagarwala and Ashraf Madani of the Financial Institutions team talk about the outlook for Islamic finance.
Inside this episode:
- Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses inflation and financial stability risks in emerging markets. (begins at 1:36 mins)
- Nitish Bhojnagarwala and Ashraf Madani of the Financial Institutions team talk about the outlook for Islamic finance. (begins at 8:52 mins)
Related content:
- Global Macro Outlook 2021-22 (August 2021 Update): Global growth rebound solidifies while risks broaden away from pandemic - We expect a robust rebound in economic growth despite risks from the delta variant. Inflation has surprised to the upside, but appears close to peak.
- Cross-Sector – Global: Characteristics of asset-based sukuk - This report provides an overview of the key characteristics of “asset-based” sukuk.
- Cross-sector - Islamic finance: Sukuk issuance will steady after five years of strong growth - Despite a solid first six months of the year, sukuk activity for 2021 will consolidate following 2020's record issuance.
James Leaton of the ESG team discusses carbon transition risks for emerging markets. Plus, Nishad Majmudar of the Sovereign and Credit Strategy teams and Jack Yuan of the Sub-Sovereign team discuss China’s bold plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
Related content:
- ESG – Global: Prevalence of ESG factors in public-sector rating actions rose in 2020 - We reviewed nearly 5,600 credit rating action announcements that we published in 2020, finding that the frequency of ESG considerations increased significantly from the prior year.
- Environmental Risks – China: Path to net-zero emissions points to bumpy transition for fossil fuel-driven sectors - Global momentum and domestic initiatives behind reducing carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by midcentury will have credit implications for Chinese entities across sectors.
- Regional & Local Governments – China: Carbon transition will be uneven, with credit risks for provinces in northern - Provinces with large legacy carbon-emitting industries or exposure to coal mining and weaker fiscal and state-owned enterprise profiles will have most difficulty bearing cost of transition.
Inside this episode
Alka Anbarasu and Mik Kabeya of the Financial Institutions team discuss the mostly negative outlook for emerging market banking systems, while Rodrigo Marimon, also of the Financial Institutions team, explains how sticky deposit bases in Mexico will enable banks there to benefit from monetary tightening.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Banks – Mexico Stabilizing interest rates and economic recovery will support profit A combination of factors bodes well for profit, including stabilizing interest rates and a recovering economy, along with loan growth, cheap funding, and declining costs and provisions.
- Global Emerging Market Banks Chartbook This report outlines the key trends and ratings drivers for emerging market banks.
- Banks – Emerging Markets Asset risk trends will diverge as new waves of virus blight recovery of some markets Nigeria, Turkey and Colombia will be hit hardest; China, India and Chile will be most resilient
Inside this episode
Marie Diron of the Sovereign group discusses the outlook for non-investment-grade sovereign ratings and how they fared during the pandemic. Plus, Anushka Shah, also of the Sovereign group, examines the credit implications of lagging vaccination rates in the Asia-Pacific region.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Non-Investment-Grade Sovereigns: Global Weak and delayed economic recovery will make it more challenging to restore fiscal and liquidity positions, 22 June 2021 The report highlights key rating trends for non-investment-grade sovereigns across the globe.
- Sovereigns – Asia Pacific: Lagging vaccinations pose risks to domestic demand; exports provide buffer for some, 23 June 2021 Infections have recently spiked in a number of economies where vaccination rates are low, but trade is providing a strong support to output in the more export-oriented economies.
Inside this episode
Elisa Parisi-Capone from the Sovereigns team and Peter Mushangwe from the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss how liquidity risks have risen for Sub-Saharan sovereigns with less-developed domestic capital markets, and the pandemic-induced asset quality deterioration of some of the largest regional banks. Also, Lisa Jaeger discusses one sector in the region experiencing growth: telecom companies.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Telecommunications – Africa African telecoms to benefit from strong growth but face increasing sovereign risks Growth of the telecom sector in Africa will be strong because most markets remain underpenetrated. But deteriorating sovereign environments increase risks.
- Banks - Africa Pandemic takes toll on Africa's largest banks but profitability will remain resilient Problem loans have soared at African banks as the pandemic brought widespread economic disruption to the continent.
- Sovereigns – Africa Varied availability of domestic funding sources in Africa drives liquidity risks Following a surge in gross borrowing requirements during the pandemic, sovereigns with domestic funding constraints face higher exposure to a potential tightening in financial conditions.
Inside this Episode
Erick Rodriguez of the Corporates team discusses how most companies and public finance projects in Latin America managed to maintain adequate liquidity levels despite the depth of their recessions. Meanwhile, Samar Maziad of the Sovereign group dives deeper into Brazil, the region’s largest economy, to answer the most frequently asked investor questions.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Cross-Sector – Argentina: Tight local market conditions keep corporate liquidity risk high in 2021-22 Despite liability management and the completion of some infrastructure spending, Argentine corporate refinancing risk remains high for the $7.9 billion in debt maturing in 2021-22.
- Cross-Sector – Brazil: Liability management prevents higher liquidity risk through 2022 Much of the short-term debt that Brazilian companies issued during the pandemic comes due through 2022, modestly increasing overall liquidity risk and making liability management crucial.
- Cross-Sector – Chile: Strong commodity prices point to solid performance even as liquidity tightens Liquidity risk increased for Chile's 17 rated non-financial companies, utilities and infrastructure issuers, but most will have enough liquidity to meet their obligations through late 2022.
- Cross-Sector – Mexico: Low liquidity risk and post-pandemic growth will benefit most companies Mexican companies will generally have enough cash on hand, free cash flow, and available committed credit facilities to cover their debt, operating expenses and capital spending through 2022.
- Cross-Sector – Peru: Corporate liquidity holds as improving economy offers some promise for 2021-22 We have seen little change in the number of rated Peruvian non-financial and infrastructure companies; nine of the 17 companies in our annual study have low or medium liquidity risk today.
- Government of Brazil: FAQ on sovereign credit challenges amid slow pace of vaccinations against the coronavirus Recent developments in Brazil (Ba2 stable) remain broadly in line with our baseline scenario. We now expect Brazil’s economy to rebound sharply from last year’s moderate contraction as the spread of the coronavirus slows in the second half of the year.
Inside this episode
Deborah Tan of the Credit Strategy & Research team explains the effectiveness and risks of quantitative easing in emerging markets, while Matt Robinson of the Sovereign group discusses the uneven economic recovery ahead for emerging markets, common factors affecting lower-rated sovereigns and key metrics and trends to follow in 2022 and beyond.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Macroeconomics – Emerging Markets: Quantitative easing programs are largely positive, but risks vary across economies Programs launched at the height of the pandemic have helped stabilize domestic bond markets, provide market liquidity, ease the impact of capital outflows and lower long-term bond yields.
- Emerging Markets – Global 2021 Summit: Recovery uneven across emerging market countries and lagging advanced economies Our virtual summit highlighted the widely divergent recovery we expect across emerging markets, with growth slowing as the pandemic's toll casts a long shadow over the global economy.
- Emerging Markets – Global 2021 Summit: ESG risks are greater for emerging markets than advanced, but vary widely Our virtual summit highlighted the heightened ESG risks for emerging markets, with strong governance an important tool to address social and environmental challenges.
- Emerging Markets – Global 2021 Summit: Energy transition risks and strategies vary among different oil-producing regions Oil producers in the GCC have made greater carbon-transition inroads than those in Latin America, whose debts and government revenue obligations are preventing greater efforts to evolve.
Welcome to Emerging Markets Decoded! Co-hosted by Ariane Ortiz-Bollin and Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team, Emerging Markets Decoded delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for emerging market issuers across asset classes. In each episode, Moody’s analysts join Ariane and Thaddeus to explore the ramifications of global macroeconomic and financial market developments, environmental, social and governance risks and other challenges for emerging economies.
Inside this episode
Alexander Perjessy and Thaddeus Best of the Sovereign team discuss our forecasts for a protracted recovery of Gulf Cooperation Council economies this year, and the unique availability of these governments to tap into sovereign wealth fund assets to plug their fiscal deficits.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Sovereigns – Gulf Cooperation Council 2021 outlook negative as pandemic curbs fiscal strength, adds to labour challenges The pandemic will dampen oil revenue, extending the deterioration in fiscal strength experienced in 2020, while constraining government spending and slowing the economic recovery.
- Sovereign and Supranational — Sovereigns – Gulf Cooperation Council: Saudi Arabia, Oman most exposed to diminishing fiscal uplift from SWFs The coronavirus-driven decline in oil demand and prices has significantly increased gross financing requirements for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Inside this episodeMarie Diron and Daniela Re Fraschini from the Sovereign team discuss our new environmental, social and governance (ESG) sovereign scores and how sustainability issues contribute to credit risks for emerging market countries.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Sovereigns – Global Explanatory Comment: New scores depict varied and largely credit-negative impact of ESG factors Considering exposure to environmental and social risk, governance strength, and financial and institutional buffers, ESG factors commonly have a negative impact on sovereign ratings.
- CROSS-SECTOR RATING METHODOLOGY: General Principles for Assessing Environmental, Social and Governance Risks Methodology This methodology describes our General Principles for Assessing Environmental, Social and Governance Risks.
Inside this episode
Jaime Reusche and Gabriel Torres of the Sovereign team discuss our negative credit outlook on Latin American sovereigns. Although we expect the region to broadly return to GDP growth in 2021, economic revival will take time and pressure on governments to boost spending on social programs will build in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Sovereigns – Latin America & Caribbean: 2021 outlook negative as social pressures rise amid subdued recovery from pandemic Subpar medium-term growth prospects and rising social pressures will challenge governments’ ability to restore lost fiscal space, pressuring creditworthiness in the region. As LatAm sovereigns emerge from the pandemic with higher debt and interest burdens, we expect fiscal strength to weaken.
Inside this episode
Aurelien Mali and David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discuss the economic and credit implications for Sub-Saharan Africa of weaker global demand and constrained access to financing, as well as how a more diverse creditor base complicates debt negotiations and liquidity relief for countries in the region with lower credit quality.
Related Content
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Sovereign Monitor: Impact of coronavirus on Sub-Saharan Africa, November 2020
- Sovereign and Supranational - Sub-Saharan Africa: More dispersed creditor base complicates potential debt restructuring negotiations.The willingness of Chinese creditors to accept losses on principal in particular will have important implications for potential losses incurred by bondholders.
Inside this episode
Anushka Shah of the Sovereign team discusses how the coronavirus is exacerbating income inequality across emerging Asia, which will pose challenges to governments with weak social protection systems and low capacity to raise spending. Also, Matthew Kuchtyak of the ESG team looks at the growing importance of social issues for global investors, as reflected in the recent record issuance of sustainable bonds.
Related content:
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Sovereign and Supranational — Asia Pacific: Pandemic shock will spur income inequality, with credit risks for fiscally weak sovereigns The impact of the coronavirus pandemic will exacerbate income inequality across Asia Pacific (APAC). Governments with constrained fiscal capacity have limited scope to address the resulting social and political strains, which could amplify credit risks.
- Cross-Sector — Sustainable Finance – Global: Record issuance of sustainable bonds in Q3 2020 as green bond volumes recover Global green, social and sustainability bond issuance totalled a record $127.3 billion in the third quarter of 2020, 30% higher than the previous record achieved during Q2 2020.
Inside this episode:
Michael Taylor and Lillian Li of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the rising credit strains on many emerging market countries that are part of the Belt & Road Initiative and the direction of the plan post-pandemic. Plus, analyst Nishad Majmudar talks about our analysis of ESG-related credit considerations in emerging market rating actions across sectors.
Related content:
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
- Post-pandemic credit stress points to leaner, greener future for Belt and Road The coronavirus crisis and global economic downturn have exacerbated underlying credit risks that have built up in recent years across many countries that participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
- ESG risks are prevalent in emerging markets, especially in the public sector Environmental, social and governance risks are often higher in emerging markets than in developed markets and debt issuers' capacity to address these risks is often weaker.
Inside this episode:
Analysts Sarah Carlson, Eugene Tarzimanov and Carolina Chimenti discuss the 2021 credit outlook for sovereigns, banks and companies across emerging market countries. The wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus will continue to be a dominant credit theme, along with still-weak tourism prospects, low oil prices and the rollback of forbearance and fiscal support in a number of countries.
Related content:
- Tentative recovery for global emerging markets in 2021.While we expect a bounce in headline GDP growth, emerging market credit conditions will remain fragile and vulnerable to setbacks. Several important factors, including the ability to restore revenue and earnings and adapt to emerging opportunities and threats, will shape performance across regions, sectors and asset classes.
- Moody's Emerging Markets Hub Bringing clarity to ever-shifting credit dynamics across emerging economies.
Inside this episode:
- Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team explains how the path to fiscal repair for many emerging market economies will likely be long and bumpy as revenue generation remains a struggle.
- Plus, William Foster, also of the Sovereign team, discusses whether India’s new fiscal stimulus push will be sufficient to jumpstart the country’s economy.
Related content:
- Second round of stimulus will provide limited support to growth, highlights credit-negative fiscal constraints
- Recovering revenue post coronavirus crisis will be crucial but challenging
- Moody's Event: State of Nations - EMEA and Americas
Original publish date: October 14, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Ivy Poon of the Infrastructure Finance team discusses how fiscal support will help offset the rise in leverage for infrastructure issuers resulting from increased capital spending on transportation, renewable energy and other projects.
- Celina Vansetti-Hutchins of the Banking team explains what the rapid drop in Brazilian interest rates this year means for credit conditions for the country’s banks.
Related content:
- Falling lending spreads amid record-low rates are credit negative for Brazilian banks
- Policy support for infrastructure investment will aid economic recovery
Original publish date: September 30, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Constantinos Kypreos of the Banking team talks about the mounting credit strains on African banks, a reflection of the weakening financial strength of their home countries.
- Elisa Parisi-Capone of the Sovereign team examines the credit effects of Lebanon’s economic, financial and social crisis, as well as the potential for reforms.
Related content:
- Pressures on sovereigns from coronavirus crisis weakens banks’ credit profiles
- Sovereign and Supranational - Government of Lebanon - C No Outlook: Annual credit analysis
Original publish date: September 16, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the steep decline in Mexican employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and why the road to recovery will be long.
- Evan Wohlmann of the Sovereign team explains how heightened political instability in Belarus is negative for the country’s sovereign credit quality.
Related content:
- Credit Conditions – Mexico: Steep job losses and slow recovery prospects will deepen economic malaise
- Government of Belarus – B3 Stable: Regular update
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: September 2, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Elena Duggar discusses the Credit Strategy & Research team’s analysis of the four main causes of sovereign bond defaults and how environmental, social and governance issues can be contributing factors.
- Atsi Sheth explains how increased manufacturing output and Chinese economic activity point to an incipient rebound in global trade.
Related content:
- Global Trade Monitor – August 2020
- The causes of sovereign defaults
- COVID-19 will accelerate supply chain shifts in a more fragmented trade system
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: August 19, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Christian de Guzman of the Sovereign team discusses how lower wages and the fall in employment of migrant workers in advanced economies will result in a decline in remittances to some developing economies.
- Banking team analyst Nitish Bhojnagarwala talks about our outlook for the issuance of Islamic sukuk bonds.
Related content:
- Sukuk issuance set for modest decline despite coronavirus outbreak
- Lower remittances after coronavirus to hurt consumption, raise external risks in major recipient countries
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: August 5, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Corporates analyst Lahlou Meksaoui discusses the credit outlook for UAE property developers.
- Sean Hwang, also from the Corporates team, talks about prospects for a revival of Macao's gaming sector.
Related content:
- Double hit from coronavirus and oil price slump will erode credit quality for most
- End of quarantine for mainland tourists is credit positive for gaming companies
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: July 22, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Artem Frolov of the Corporates team provides insight about our cautiously optimistic view of Russian oil companies’ credit dynamics despite the adverse operating environment.
- Michael Higgins of the Sovereign team discusses the challenges and recovery prospects for non-investment grade emerging and frontier market sovereigns.
Related content:
- Russian oil majors’ credit quality will stay solid despite coronavirus, oil price pressure
- Coronavirus shock triggers sharp economic downturn and intensifies fiscal and external liquidity challenges
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: July 8, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock.
- Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.
Related content:
- Financial conditions stabilise, but pandemic fallout casts shadow on H2 credit prospects
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: June 24, 2020
Inside this episode:
- David Rogovic of the Sovereigns team discusses how the global travel slump is hurting emerging market countries, particularly small island-economies with a heavy dependence on tourism revenue.
- Barbara Mattos of the Corporates team shares insights as to how Brazilian mining giant Vale, a bellwether for the sector, is faring after coronavirus related disruption to its operations.
Related content:
- Lack of economic diversification and fiscal space leave small, island economies vulnerable to sustained drop in tourism
- Coronavirus outbreak halts Itabira, a credit negative for operational stability
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: June 10, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the prospects for economic recovery and employment stability in China as the country tries to revitalize growth following the coronavirus.
- Kelvin Dalrymple from the Sovereign team talks about the twin shocks for East Africa of the coronavirus and a locust infestation that threatens the region’s crops.
Related content:
- Policy sessions indicate economic recovery, employment are government's top priorities
- World Bank's emergency funding for East Africa points to risks from intensifying locust swarms
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: May 27, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team discusses a debt relief initiative for low-income countries grappling with liquidity pressures.
- Daniela Jayesuria of the Structured Finance team offers insights on coronavirus-related debt moratoriums for individual and corporate borrowers in Latin America, one of the biggest securitization markets in emerging markets.
Related content:
- Rating Action: Moody's places Pakistan's B3 rating under review for downgrade
- Government of Ethiopia – B2 RUR; Update following downgrade and initiation of review for further downgrade
- Policy support will mitigate economic damage but will not avert recessions
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: May 13, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy and Research team shares insights on how the coronavirus will likely push the global economy into recession this year, and why the downturn poses particular risks for emerging markets.
- Sean Marion of the Financial Institutions team discusses why credit risks are rising for South African banks.
Related content:
- Coronavirus and the Economy: Alternative Data Monitor
- Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 (April 2020 Update): Global recession is deepening rapidly as restrictions exact high economic cost
- Banking System Outlook Update - South Africa: Credit profiles will weaken as the coronavirus pushes economy into recession
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: April 29, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team discuss the factors behind our recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and domestic energy giant PEMEX.
- Insights from Franco Leung of the Corporates team on the weaker operating environment for China’s property sector, one of the most active segments in emerging Asia debt markets.
Related content:
- Government of Mexico – Baa1 negative; update following rating downgrade to Baa1, outlook negative
- Rating Action: Moody's downgrades PEMEX's ratings to Ba2; negative outlook
- Outlook turns negative; but most rated developers are stronger than broad sector
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: April 15, 2020
Inside this episode:
- India’s sweeping lockdown to combat the coronavirus outbreak is the largest restriction of movement the world has ever seen. In this episode, Moody’s analysts William Foster and Alka Anbarasu talk through the credit implications of containment efforts for the country’s government and banks.
- Analyst Gabriel Torres also joins to discuss Argentina’s economic outlook and prospects for another debt restructuring.
Related content:
- Government of India – Baa2 negative; update following forecast change
- Government of Argentina – Ca negative; update following downgrade to Ca, outlook negative
- Outlook changed to negative as coronavirus outbreak and bank default add to risks
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus
Original publish date: April 1, 2020
Inside this episode:
- Marie Diron discusses what’s ahead for emerging market sovereigns as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and demand for oil drops.
- Matthew Kuchtyak discusses our outlook for sustainable finance and ESG investing in emerging markets after a landmark year in 2019.
Related content:
- Coronavirus and oil price shock magnify weaknesses highlighted in negative 2020 outlook
- Deepening ESG focus in emerging markets will spur growth in sustainable debt
- Moody's Emerging Markets Focus