Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast: Recent Episodes
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- European bourses are in the red following the risk-off sentiment in APAC trade, US futures tentative pre-CPI
- European autos saw brief marked outperformance on von der Leyen’s comments, though this has since pared
- DXY is on a firmer footing with EUR & GBP softer while the PLN experienced marked appreciation after the Polish PM’s advisor spoke
- EGBs softer after hawkish ECB sources while Gilts remain in the green after particularly soft growth data; USTs under marginal pressure pre-CPI/supply
- Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer continuing Tuesday’s upside while metals are mixed/subdued as the USD remains resilient
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI & supply
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- APAC stocks were pressured following the tech-led declines on Wall St owing to the Apple event and with participants cautious ahead of the upcoming US CPI data.
- Apple (AAPL) shares sold off after the new iPhone prices provided some disappointment, whilst some also cited a “sell the news” event.
- ECB’s new 2024 inflation projection is to be above 3% vs. 3% in June, firming the case for an interest rate hike, according to Reuters sources.
- DXY eked mild gains amid the risk-off mood, EUR/USD remained indecisive after yesterday’s whipsawing, and USD/JPY resumed its upward trend after finding support near 147.00.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP Estimate, US CPI, IEA Oil Market Report, Supply from Italy, UK, Germany & US
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- European bourses/US futures are generally struggling for direction though Tech lags post-ORCL -9.1% pre-market
- USD at the top-end of parameters but still sub-105.00; GBP stumbles on caveats to UK wage data
- Gilts outperform post-data but are off highs as BoE’s appointee Breeden says she agrees that August CPI risks are skewed to the upside
- Crude benchmarks choppy with specifics light while TTF continues to benefit from strike action, metals softer after Monday’s strength
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoE’s Mann, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mixed with the region tentative in the absence of any fresh macro catalysts.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed up 0.4% yesterday.
- DXY was contained above 104.50, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are steady on 1.07 and 146 handles respectively, Cable eyes jobs data
- Australia union said it wants industrial action to continue until it secures a union-negotiated deal at Australian LNG facilities, according to Reuters
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Labour Data, German Wholesale Prices, German & EZ ZEW, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, BoE’s Mann, Supply from Netherlands, UK & US.
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- European bourses are mostly firmer after a packed morning ahead of an equally busy US agenda, ES +0.1%
- EUR & EZ yields slump after Flash HICP and balanced commentary from Schnabel on a hike/skip for upcoming meetings
- Pricing for a 25bp hike by the ECB in September down to a 30% chance from over 60% in recent sessions
- DXY bid as a result and pressuring peers, Cable dented further by Pill backing a steady for longer strategy vs overtightening
- Crude continues to climb while XAU is near unchanged and torn between the risk tone & USD upside
- APAC traded negative despite the firmer handover with mixed Chinese PMIs influencing
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index (Jul), IJC & Challenger Layoffs, speeches from Fed’s Collins, ECB’s de Guindos.
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- APAC stocks eventually traded mostly negatively following a marginally positive handover from Wall Street, which saw an equity bid underpinned by dovish US economic data.
- DXY was caged in a tight range after being dealt another blow by US data yesterday, JPY and AUD narrowly outperformed.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open after Euro Stoxx 50 cash closed -0.3% yesterday.
- Chinese PMIs were mixed, manufacturing topped expectations but remained sub-50 while non-manufacturing deteriorated slightly since July.
- The US reportedly restricted the export of some AMD (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) chips to the Middle East amid China fears.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, EZ Flash CPI, Unemployment Rate, US PCE Price Index (Jul), IJC & Challenger Layoffs, speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Collins, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.
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- European bourses are in the red as expectations for the ECB September meeting turns more hawkish
- Stateside, futures are in the red with the NQ lagging slightly as yields lift
- German regional & Spanish Flash CPIs spurred ECB pricing to a circa. 60% chance of 25bp in Sep., vs 50/50 recently
- Broad debt retracement after Tuesday’s US-data inspired highs with EGBs leading post-data
- Crude benchmarks at highs as Idalia intensifies into a category four hurricane, expected to intensify as it nears Florida
- US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said some Chinese gov’t actions are positive, US businesses want to do business in China
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP National Employment, US GDP Estimates (Prelim) & PCE Prices Prelim (Q2), German HICP (Flash).
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- APAC stocks traded positively following the JOLTS-induced gains seen on Wall Street, although Mainland China waned throughout the session.
- DXY was steady after the prior day’s slump, with the index finding overnight support near 103.50 while AUD was dented by softer-than-expected CPI.
- BoJ Board Member Tamara said it is appropriate to keep easy policy now and he doesn’t expect the 10yr JGB yield to hit 1.0%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after cash markets closed +0.8%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German & Spanish CPI, US ADP National Employment, US GDP Estimates (Prelim) & PCE Prices Prelim (Q2), Speech from ECB's Centeno, Supply from Germany & Italy.
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- Equities are in the green despite fading just after the European open, further upside seen on Chinese sources
- Multiple reports via State Media and BBG that China is considering rate-related action to bolster growth
- Crude benchmarks print fresh highs on the above and as Idalia intensifies into a hurricane, gas deflates slightly after marked Monday upside
- DXY continues to rotate around 104.00 with Antipodeans outperforming while the EUR fades towards marked 1.08 OpEx
- Debt futures pare gains after an initial extension in early trade, though Bunds remain in the green after a decent Bobl outing
- Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS, NBH Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Barr & RBA’s Bullock, and Supply from the US
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- APAC stocks traded with an upward bias following the positive lead from Wall Street, with little in terms of fresh catalysts to dictate price action heading into month-end.
- DXY was subdued after retreating back under the 104.00 mark in early APAC hours, while debt futures tilted firmer.
- Chinese State media reports PBoC may cut banks' RRR earlier than expected to maintain reasonable ample liquidity.
- Australian union said workers at Chevron's LNG facilities will escalate industrial action each week until Co. agrees to bargaining claims.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, Spanish Retail Sales & US JOLTS, NBH Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Barr & RBA’s Bullock, and Supply from Germany and the US.
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- Equities are in the green with fresh drivers limited and markets deriving impetus from APAC upside
- DXY has dipped below 104.00 with peers generally contained, JPY near lows as Ueda underlines reasons to remain ultra-accommodative
- Energy benchmarks firmer amid numerous NHC and Offshore Alliance updates
- Bunds test Friday’s trough in a return to the bearish path of least resistance
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed Manufacturing, & supply from the US. Fed's Barr. ECB's Nagel & Holzmann
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- APAC stocks kicked off the week in the green, following a similar lead from Wall Street, whilst the focus overnight was on Chinese markets after Friday's stock support measures.
- DXY was caged to a tight range above 104.00 after Friday’s choppy session, AUD outperformed whilst the JPY stood as the G10 laggard.
- ECB President Lagarde on Friday said the ECB needs to set rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target.
- BoJ Governor Ueda over the weekend said underlying inflation in Japan is still below 2%, which is a reason to stick to the current monetary policy approach.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ M3, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing, and supply from the EU and the US.
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- MON: Australian Retail Sales (Jul)
- TUE: NBH Announcement, German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Sep), US CaseShiller (Jun) and JOLTS (Jul)
- WED: Australian CPI (Jul), Spanish Flash CPI (Aug), EZ Sentiment Survey (Aug), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), US ADP National Employment (Aug)
- THU: ECB Minutes, Japanese Retail Sales (Jul), Chinese Official PMI (Aug), German Retail Sales (Jul)/ Unemployment (Aug), EZ Flash CPI (Aug), US Challenger Layoffs (Aug), US PCE (Jul)
- FRI: Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug), Swiss CPI (Aug), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (Aug), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), US Labour Market Report (Aug), Canadian GDP (Q2)
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- European bourses and US futures are modestly firmer but the overall tone is tentative pre-Jackson Hole
- USD is bid but rangebound pre-Powell while EUR lags after dovish-leaning ECB sources, AUD outperforms as base metals lift
- Core benchmarks continue to pullback with Bunds entirely paring knee-jerk upside to sources
- ECB sources report momentum is growing for a pause as recession fears increase, via Reuters
- Crude benchmarks are grinding higher awaiting LNG updates while base metals derive upside from Chinese property support
- Looking ahead, highlights include US UoM Survey. Jackson Hole: Fed’s Powell, Mester, Harker, Goolsbee & ECB’s Lagarde
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- APAC stocks traded lower following the weak handover from global counterparts after the Nvidia-related euphoria wore off.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Eurostoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed down 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY has extended upside above 104 and is firmer vs. peers, EUR/USD sits on a 1.07 handle whilst USD/JPY has reclaimed 146 status.
- ECB's Nagel stated it is much too early to think about a rate-hike pause, Vujcic said it is to be seen whether rates are restrictive enough.
- Offshore Alliance members at Woodside Energy (WDS AT) endorsed the in-principle agreement.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US UoM Survey, Fed’s Powell, Mester, Harker, Goolsbee & ECB’s Lagarde.
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- Tech/NQ lead the equity space after NVDA earnings, +7.7% pre-market, as attention turns to Jackson Hole
- USD has bounced from post-PMI lows, Antipodeans lag after recent outperformance & JPY unwinds recovery gains
- EGBs/Gilts tested post-PMI bounds before running out of steam, USTs under modest pressure
- Crude has turned positive and nat gas benchmarks are off lows after Chevron’s vote update; TTF remains markedly pressured post-Woodside
- Woodside and unions came to an in-principle agreement on numerous issues, vote due at 12:30BST/07:30ET
- BRICS to invite Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and UAE to become new members
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods & Initial Jobless Claims, Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, Banxico Minutes, CBRT Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Harker & Collins, Earning from Dollar Tree.
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- Nvidia rose 6.6% after-hours post-earnings after reporting solid Q2 profits and announcing an additional USD 25bln in buybacks
- APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall St. and the Nvidia-induced rise in futures; ES +0.8%, NQ +1.3%
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Eurostoxx 50 future +0.7% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday
- DXY is contained on a 103 handle, whilst EUR/USD and Cable hold on to 1.08 and 1.27 status respectively, USD/JPY is back above 145
- Union members at Woodside’s LNG facilities will meet today to discuss an in-principle agreement reached with the Co.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods & Initial Jobless Claims, Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, Banxico Minutes, CBRT Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Harker & Collins
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- European bourses & US futures are firmer and back towards best as lower yields take precedence over European growth concerns
- Germany’s PMI saw a marked contraction for services and a bleak accompanying GDP nowcast, input costs increased in the EZ for the first time in 11 months
- USD benefits as EUR & GBP decline following dire PMIs while JPY outperforms as yields tumble
- Mentioned data has trimmed the probability of ECB/BoE tightening, core benchmarks at highs with US yields lower across the curve
- Crude is pressured by the USD alongside demand- and supply-side factors, metals remain underpinned
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, US MBAs, Canadian Retail Sales, Supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA Corp, and the BRICS summit.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed amid a slew of earnings releases alongside the latest PMI data from the region but with price action relatively rangebound.
- Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) said the US economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools and he won't prejudge the outcome of the Fed's September meeting.
- DXY gave back some of the prior day’s gains, albeit with price action contained ahead of flash PMIs and the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium.
- Woodside Energy is meeting unions for talks as strike threats loom over Australian LNG facilities. Talks are expected to continue until the evening, according to Bloomberg.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, US MBA, Canadian Retail Sales, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from NVIDIA Corp, and the BRICS summit.
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- European bourses and US futures are firmer as the US tech-led rally reverberated into Europe
- APAC trade was more mixed, though a late-doors revival occurred in Chinese-stocks despite limited catalysts
- DXY continues to slip and nears 103.00 with Antipodeans benefitting from the risk tone pre-data while JPY gets respite from a stabilisation in yields
- Fixed benchmarks have bounced firmly after Monday’s marked yield upside
- Energy benchmarks are failing to benefit from the above tone; Woodside Energy says talks are constructive, elsewhere the Iraqi minister arrives in Turkey.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Richmond Fed Index, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bowman & Goolsbee.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar performance stateside where tech rallied.
- WSJ's Timiraos tweeted that he believes Fed Chair Powell is unlikely to speak about higher neutral rates at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Eurostoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed up by 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch softer but still on a 103 handle, EUR/USD is back above 1.09, USD/JPY lingers just below 146.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Richmond Fed Index, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bowman & Goolsbee, Earnings from Lowe’s Companies.
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- Equity bourses/futures have gradually improved throughout the morning after a contained European open
- Action which occurs in limited newsflow and follows mixed APAC on a disappointing LPR adjustment which overshadowed support measures
- Crude and nat gas are bolstered by supply-side updates via the NHC and on Australian LNG
- USD drifts in a contained start to the week, EUR eyes OpEx while the JPY is undermined by upside in US yields
- EGBs and USTs slip though Gilts remain relatively resilient, US yields steeper
- Looking ahead highlights include the Bundesbank Monthly Report. Earnings from Zoom Video Communications.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed as the disappointment from China’s decision on its Loan Prime Rates overshadowed its recent support efforts; Hong Kong underperformed.
- PBoC opted for a narrower-than-expected cut to the 1-year LPR alongside a surprise hold on the 5-year LPR, which is the reference rate for mortgages.
- PBoC and regulators met with bank executives and told lenders to boost loans to support the economic recovery, according to Bloomberg.
- US equity futures traded sideways and were only briefly fazed by China's benchmark rate disappointment; European equity futures are indicative of a flat open.
- Unions at Woodside Energy's North West Shelf offshore gas platforms on Sunday announced plans to strike as early as September 2nd, according to Reuters.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German PPI, Bundesbank Monthly Report, and Earnings from Zoom Video Communications.
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- European bourses are once again on the backfoot as the downtrend in the equity space continues without much in the way of fresh drivers.
- US equity futures are trading on the back foot as sentiment continues to slump, extending the downward price action seen yesterday.
- In FX, DXY is resilient, JPY outperforms on yield dynamics, GBP lags following softer-than-expected UK retail sales, whilst the CNY saw the largest gap between the PBoC fixing and expectations.
- Bunds are leading the latest recovery rally in core debt, T-note futures continue edging higher as US players enter the market.
- Looking ahead, highlights include the Trilateral Summit hosting Japanese, South Korean, and US leaders. Earnings from Estee Lauder.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly lower after the early reprieve from the recent global rout petered out
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.3% yesterday
- DXY is a touch softer but still firmly on a 103 handle, EUR/USD remains sub 1.09, JPY leads the majors as USD/JPY pulls back from 146
- 10yr UST futures extended on the rebound from yesterday’s trough as yields slightly eased back
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales and EZ CPI (Final), Trilateral Summit hosting Japanese, South Korean, and US leaders, ECB’s Lane
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- European bourses trade on the backfoot after succumbing to the selling pressure seen Stateside and during APAC trade, while macro newsflow has been light.
- DXY faded from best levels after extending gains on the back of broad risk aversion, EUR sees several large option expiries, AUD underperforms after the Aussie jobs report.
- WTI and Brent front-month futures tilted higher this morning following APAC consolidation, with little in the way of fresh newsflow to drive price action.
- Norges Bank hiked its Key Policy Rate by 25bps as expected to 4.00%, and sees another hike in September.
- Looking ahead, highlights include highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Norges Policy Announcement, Earnings from Walmart & Applied Materials.
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- FOMC minutes stated that most officials saw "significant" upside risks to inflation and could require further tightening; account was otherwise balanced.
- APAC stocks mostly suffered another day of selling and followed suit to the losses on Wall St, participants also reflected on several weak data releases from the region.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed down by 0.1% yesterday.
- DXY is steady around 103.50, EUR/USD is sub-1.0900, USD/JPY sits on a 146 handle, AUD lags post-jobs data.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Norges Policy Announcement, Supply from France, Earnings from Walmart.
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- European bourses trade mixed after opening after shrugging off mild broad-based opening losses with no obvious catalyst behind the move at the time.
- DXY is softer and trades on either side of 103.00, T-note futures hold near overnight peaks, US equity futures are trading flat with a positive bias ahead of FOMC minutes.
- GBP and NZD outperform, the former following hotter-than-expected UK inflation and the latter after RBNZ left rates unchanged but upped the OCR path.
- China reportedly asked some funds to avoid net equity sales as the market sinks, according to Bloomberg sources; Chinese state banks were seen selling dollars vs yuan at the 7.2800 level.
- Looking ahead, highlights include: Highlights include US Building Permits & Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Cisco.
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- US stocks closed lower with the S&P 500 closing below its 50DMA for the first time since March
- APAC stocks were pressured following the declines on Wall St amid the broad risk-off mood
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday
- RBNZ kept rates unchanged as expected and reiterated the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future
- DXY is a touch softer above 103, EUR/USD is supported by 1.09, USD/JPY maintains 145 status, NZD leads post-RBNZ
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ GDP & Unemployment Rate, US Building Permits & Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes, Supply from Germany
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- European bourses have been unable to hold onto modest opening gains, whilst there wasn’t a clear reason behind the pullback in global equities.
- Stateside are trading on the back foot, with ES and NQ giving back some of yesterday's gains after overnight data out of China disappointed.
- Fitch analysts warn it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), according to CNBC.
- China's PBoC cut its 1-year MLF rate by 15bps, and reduced its 7-day reverse repo rate and SLF rates by 10bps each; state banks intervened overnight, and activity data underscored dampened demand.
- Looking ahead, highlights include, US Import & Export Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Canadian CPI, Speech from Fed’s Kashkari
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- US stocks were mostly positive with outperformance in the Nasdaq amid the advances in Nvidia after MS named the stock a top pick.
- APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested key releases including disappointing Chinese activity data and the PBoC’s surprise cuts to its 7-day Reverse Repo and 1-year MLF rates.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY remains above 103, USD/CNH advanced to 7.3121 post-MLF reduction, AUD leads the majors, EUR/USD sits just above 1.09.
- Highlights include, UK Unemployment, Swedish CPI, German & EZ ZEW, US Import & Export Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Canadian CPI, Speech from Fed’s Kashkari, Supply from UK & Germany.
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- European bourses trade on the front-foot after shrugging off opening losses which were in part a by-product of Chinese-related concerns overnight.
- Stateside, futures are trading slightly firmer ahead of a catalyst-thin docket, with the ES briefly topping 4,500.
- A partial pick-up in overall sentiment sapped some of the Greenback’s strength rather than any real change in fundamentals; G10s are flat.
- Debt futures regain composure after overcoming several bouts of selling pressure, albeit not uniformly and without an obvious catalyst.
- Looking ahead, highlights include the BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey
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- APAC stocks were pressured amid ongoing Chinese economic woes and developer default concerns
- Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to begin cutting rates by the end of June 2024 at a gradual pace, which it anticipates likely to be once per quarter
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed down by 1.4% on Friday
- DXY is firmer and just below the 103 mark, USD/JPY briefly climbed above 145, AUD lags the major due to Chinese economic concerns
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoC SLOOS
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- European bourses are under modest pressure as benchmarks gradually dip in catalyst thin trade; US futures near unchanged
- DXY is incrementally softer with GBP the standout outperformer post UK GDP
- Given the above, Gilts lag though EGBs are also lower while USTs remain afloat pre-data
- Crude benchmarks are near unchanged after Thursday’s subdued settlement, XAU bid
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI & UoM (Prelim).
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- APAC stocks traded mostly lower after the post-CPI dovish unwinding seen stateside, Chinese property concerns and holiday-thinned conditions.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed up by 1.6% yesterday.
- DXY is contained just above the 102.50 mark, USD/JPY eyes 145, EUR/USD sits just below 1.10.
- Looking ahead, highlights include French Unemployment Rate, UK GDP, Trade Balance, US PPI, UoM (Prelim), Speeches from RBA's Lowe, Bullock & Kohler.
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- European bourses are in the green, with sentiment inching higher in pre-CPI trade
- Stateside, futures are taking impetus from the above and recouping some of Wednesday’s pressure
- DXY lags in the FX space with CHF taking advantage while JPY lags on yield dynamics, EUR & GBP both bid
- Core fixed benchmarks are in the red with US yields higher across the curve but action remains limited
- Commodities hold a positive bias given the tone and USD downside, incrementally encouraging updates re. TTF/LNG supply
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, IJC, Chinese M2 Money Supply, New Zealand PMI (Manufacturing), Banxico Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Harker & Bostic, Supply from US.
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- US stocks finished lower in a choppy session with catalysts extremely light; APAC stocks were mixed with the regional bourses mostly rangebound amid a slew of earnings releases and with the mood tentative.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% after the cash market closed up by 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY traded flat around the 102.50 level as participants lacked conviction heading into the US CPI data; 10yr UST futures were marginally lower, Bund futures remained subdued, and 10yr JGB futures declined.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI, Italian CPI (Final), US CPI, IJC, Chinese M2 Money Supply, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, Banxico Policy Announcement, ECB Economic Bulletin, Speeches from Fed's Harker & Bostic, Supply from US.
- Earnings from Allianz, Deutsche Telekom, Munich Re., Novo Nordisk, Rheinmetall, Siemens, Antofagasta, Entain, Zurich Insurance & Ralph Lauren.
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- European bourses are firmer as the tone improves while US futures attempted to claw back recent downside
- DXY dips under 102.50, Yuan in focus during APAC hours given Chinese inflation; Antipodeans lead
- Core fixed benchmarks are relatively contained, Gilts bid and Bunds pressured post supply, US 10yr due
- Crude benchmarks inch higher, with focus on earlier Saudi updates while metals derive support from the USD
- Chinese inflation data was mixed but showed consumer prices in deflationary territory for the first time in more than two years
- Looking ahead, highlights include EIA Weekly Energy Inventories, Supply from the US, Earnings from Walt Disney.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested a deluge of earnings releases and the latest inflation data from China
- Chinese inflation data was mixed but showed consumer prices in deflationary territory for the first time in more than two years
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9% after the cash market closed down by 1.1% yesterday
- DXY is a touch softer, EUR/USD remains sub-1.10, USD/JPY sits on a 143 handle, AUD marginally outperforms
- Looking ahead, highlights include EIA Weekly Energy Inventories, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from Continental, E.ON, Bellway, Flutter & Walt Disney
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- European bourses are lower given the risk tone post-China trade, banking names lag after an Italian windfall tax
- Stateside, futures are also in the red and feature continued underperformance in the RTY
- Given the tone after downbeat Chinese trade the DXY continues to lift with Antipodeans lagging
- Bunds surpassed last week’s best after a strong Bobl auction with the complex bid on the tone ahead of US 3yr supply & Fed speak
- Commodities are broadly pressured given the above factors though spot gold is somewhat cushioned by its haven allure
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade, US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Speakers incl. Fed's Harker & Barkin. Supply from the US. Earnings from Eli Lilly.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed after the early optimism following the positive lead from Wall St was soured
- This came as Chinese markets entered the fray, while the region also digested disappointing Chinese trade data
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed up by 0.1% yesterday
- DXY heads into the European session firmer, JPY lags with USD/JPY above 143, EUR/USD is back on a 1.09 handle
- Looking ahead, highlights include include German CPI (Final), US Trade, ECB Economic Bulletin, ECB Consumer Expectation Survey, US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Speakers from Fed's Harker & Barkin, Supply from UK, Germany & US
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- European bourses are pressured with fresh drivers light and price action continuing from subdued APAC trade
- Stateside, futures are more constructive with the NQ leading despite yield upside given last week’s pressure
- DXY is bid to the detriment of G10 peers with havens lagging as yields lift
- Debt dips with Central Bank speak taking centre stage; Bowman said more hikes likely while Williams said we are pretty close to peak rate
- Commodities in the red given the overall tone and USD strength
- Looking ahead, highlights include Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Bostic, Harker & Bowman.
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- APAC stocks began the week mostly negative following on from last Friday's late retreat on Wall Street.
- Fed’s Bowman (voter) said more US rate hikes will likely be needed.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.7% on Friday.
- FX markets are contained with DXY steady just above 102, JPY marginally lags, EUR/USD eyes 1.10 to the upside.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Bostic & Bowman, Earnings from Siemens Energy & Airbnb.
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- MON: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Industrial Output (Jun), EZ Sentix Index (Aug)
- TUE: EIA STEO, Chinese Trade Balance (Jul), German Final CPI (Jul), Canadian Trade Balance (Jul)
- WED: Chinese Inflation (Jul)
- THU: RBI Announcement, Banxico Announcement, OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Jul)
- FRI: IEA OMR, UK GDP (Jun), French/Spanish Final CPI (Jul), US PPI (Jul), US Uni of Michigan Prelim. Survey (Aug)
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- European bourses and US futures are modestly firmer with updates limited aside from numerous corporate developments pre-NFP
- AMZN +8.8% & AAPL -1.8% pre-market; Berkshire Hathaway reports on the weekend
- DXY is firmer but yet to lift above 102.50, Antipodeans outperform while havens pare some of their recent gains
- Fixed benchmarks dip to incremental WTD lows with the week’s bearish drivers still in play
- WTI and Brent are edging higher as we head towards the OPEC+ JMMC at 12:30BST/07:30ET
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, Canadian Unemployment, OPEC+ JMMC, Speech from BoE's Pill, Earnings from Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed as most bourses in the region lacked firm direction after a lacklustre handover from the US
- Apple were lower by 2% after-hours as earnings once again showed declining sales, whilst Amazon was boosted by 8.7% following solid results
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed down by 0.7% yesterday
- DXY is flat just below the 102.50 mark with price action in the FX space overall contained, antipodeans marginally outperform
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Retail Sales, US NFP, Canadian Unemployment, OPEC+ JMMC, Speech from BoE's Pill, Earnings from Credit Agricole, Commerzbank, Maersk & Berkshire Hathaway.
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- European bourses & US futures continue to slump in an extension of Wednesday’s price action with yields on the up
- EGBs/USTs continue to drop and have made new lows below the post-Refunding/Fitch trough, Gilts pressured further pre-BoE
- Further upside for the USD with JPY outperforming on haven action while EUR & GBP slip
- Commodities are in-fitting with the above risk tone and accompanying USD strength; complex is conscious of punchy rhetoric from Poland
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Factory Orders, ISM Services, BoE Policy Announcement, BoE's Bailey, Fed's Barkin, Bostic & Goolsbee. Earnings from ConocoPhillips, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Apple, Kellogg Co, Moderna, Amazon,com, Warner Bros Discovery & Airbnb.
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- APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the weakness in global peers, albeit with some of the losses stemmed in Asia as participants digested Chinese Caixin PMI figures.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.6% yesterday.
- DXY remains on the front foot, EUR/USD has moved lower on a 1.09 handle, Cable sits below 1.27 pre-BoE, JPY lags post-BoJ unscheduled bond-buying operation.
- Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 50bps to 13.25% (exp. 25bps cut) with the decision not unanimous.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade, EZ & UK Services PMI (Final), Swiss CPI, US IJC, Factory Orders, ISM Services, BoE Policy Announcement, BoE's Bailey, ECB's Panetta, Fed's Barkin, Bostic & Goolsbee, Supply from Spain & France.
- Earnings from Adidas, AXA, BMW, Infineon, ING, Lufthansa, Merck, Rolls-Royce, ConocoPhillips, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Apple, Kellogg Co, Moderna, Amazon.com, Warner Bros Discovery & Airbnb.
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- European bourses & US futures are in the red as sentiment continues to deteriorate from the APAC/Wall St. handover
- Fitch cut the US' sovereign rating from AAA to AA+; Outlook revised to Stable from Watch Negative.
- DXY benefits from the soured tone with JPY outperforming while EUR & GBP prove relatively resilient to the USD
- EGBs are firmer and benefiting from haven allure with USTs bid as such and giving up some pre-Quarterly Refunding concession
- Crude benchmarks retain a slight bid despite the above after Tuesday’s marked inventory draw; metals succumbing to risk
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP National Employment. US Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Earnings from Occidental Petroleum Corp, Exelon Corp, CVS Health Corp, Qualcomm Inc & MetLife Inc.
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- APAC stocks traded lower following the mostly negative lead from Wall St where sentiment was dampened by higher yields and weak data
- Fitch cut US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+; Outlook revised to Stable from Watch Negative
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7% after the cash market closed down by 0.9% yesterday
- DXY is firmer and on a 102 handle, JPY leads the majors, antipodeans lag, EUR/USD sits just below the 1.10 mark
- Crude futures extended on gains amid tailwinds from the private sector inventory data which pointed to a record weekly drawdown of crude inventories
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP National Employment, Supply from Germany & US Quarterly Refunding Announcement
- Earnings from Hugo Boss, Telecom Italia, BAE Systems, Smurfit Kappa, Taylor Wimpey, Simon Property Group, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Exelon Corp, CVS Health Corp, Qualcomm & MetLife
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- European bourses are in the red with initial catalysts light but sentiment deteriorating further alongside Final PMIs
- Stateside, futures also pressured but magnitudes are more contained ahead of manufacturing data
- DXY continues to climb to the detriment of G10 peers, AUD lags post-RBA maintained its Cash Rate
- EGBs slip despite deteriorating risk and welcome EZ PMI commentary re. inflation; USTs mixed
- Crude slumps as sentiment slips and the USD remains bid with metals also dented
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM, JOLTS, New Zealand Labour Data, Speech from Fed's Goolsbee. Earnings from American International Group Inc, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Electronic Arts Inc, Merck & Co Inc.
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- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 notched its 5th consecutive monthly gain.
- RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.10% and noted that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required.
- AUD lags post-RBA, JPY is also on the backfoot, DXY oscillates around the 102 mark, EUR/USD sits just below 1.10.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 unchanged after the cash market closed up by 0.1% yesterday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Unemployment Rate, UK/EZ Final PMI, US ISM, JOLTS, New Zealand Labour Data, Speech from Fed's Goolsbee.
- Earnings from Covestro, Deutsche Post, Daimler Truck, BP, Diageo, HSBC, AIG, Advanced Micro Devices, Electronic Arts, Merck & Co.
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- European bourses are mixed/steady around the unchanged mark, with US futures following suit
- Action which follows mostly firmer APAC trade given Wall St. momentum, Chinese stimulus and despite mixed PMIs
- DXY is on the front-foot despite some month-end model predictions; JPY standout laggard while Antipodeans outperform
- Fixed income remains pressured though JGBs have steadied after unscheduled 5-10yr purchases, EGBs unreactive to Flash data
- Crude benchmarks continue to benefit from the risk tone/Chinese stimulus, while metals are more mixed given the USDs influence
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI; Fed's Goolsbee, SLOOS & Treasury Estimates.
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- APAC stocks headed into month-end mostly on the front foot as participants digested the latest support efforts from China and mixed PMI data.
- Chinese headline Manufacturing PMI slightly topped forecasts but remained in contraction territory and Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed with the slowest pace of increase since December 2022.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5% after the cash market closed up by 0.4% on Friday.
- In FX, DXY is firmer, JPY lags across the majors, antipodeans lead, EUR/USD hovers just above the 1.10 mark.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, EZ Flash CPI, US Chicago PMI.
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- MON: Japanese Retail Sales (Jun), Chinese Official PMI (Jul), German Flash GDP (Q2), New Zealand Labour Cost Index (Q2)
- TUE: RBA Announcement, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Final PMI (Jul), German/EZ Unemployment Rates (Jul), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jul), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), New Zealand Jobs Report (Q2)
- WED: BCB Announcement, US ADP Employment (Jul)
- THU: BoE Announcement and MPR, CNB Announcement, Chinese Caixin Final PMI (Jul), Swiss CPI (Jul), EZ/UK/US Services and Composite Final PMI (Jul), US Durable Goods R (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jul)
- FRI: RBA SoMP, EZ Retail Sales (Jun), US Jobs Report (Jul), Canadian Jobs Report (Jul)
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- BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 0.5%).
- At the post-meeting presser, BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the need for continued monetary easing, stating that the bank is prepared to further ease policy if required.
- European equities are a mixed bag as the dust settles on yesterday’s ECB announcement and the overnight BoJ release.
- US equity futures are trading on the front foot, as positivity seemingly returns following a sell-off in stocks yesterday, after the hot data prints yesterday and ahead of today's top-tier data.
- DXY briefly topped 102.00 earlier in the European morning, JPY whipsawed during the BoJ release and now trades with mild gains, and AUD lags ahead of next week’s RBA.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone Economic Sentiment, German HICP (Prelim.), US Personal Income, Consumption, PCE & Employment Costs, Earnings from Air France, BBVA, Intesa Sanpaolo, Sanofi, Vinci, Exxon, Chevron, P&G.
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- BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 50bps).
- APAC stocks are mixed with underperformance in the Nikkei 225 as markets digest the fallout from the BoJ.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed up by 2.3% yesterday.
- JPY is the standout outperformer in the FX space with USD/JPY whipsawing amid the confusion in the aftermath of the BoJ.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone Economic Sentiment, German HICP (Prelim.), US Personal Income, Consumption, PCE & Employment Costs, Earnings from Air France, BBVA, Intesa Sanpaolo, Sanofi, Vinci, Exxon, Chevron, P&G.
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- European bourses in the green in a continuation of APAC trade with a blockbuster earnings docket influencing
- US futures firmer and the NQ outperforms following Meta’s after-hours report, META +8.3%
- DXY pressured to near 100.50 with EUR & JPY taking advantage ahead of their rate decisions, Antipodeans lead given risk sentiment
- Crude benchmarks bid intraday given risk & USD, with both precious and base metals benefitting
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, PCE Prices Advance, IJC, GDP Advance, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference with Lagarde, Supply from the US.
- Earnings from McDonald's, Ford, Abbvie, Mastercard & Intel Corp.
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- The Fed hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%, as expected, with the statement a copy & paste job from June.
- Markets initially perceived the presser as dovish after Powell avoided committing to future rate hikes and stressed a data-dependent approach.
- US equity futures edged higher overnight with NQ boosted by Meta shares post-earnings, APAC stocks were also firmer.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday.
- DXY slipped below 101, EUR/USD eyes 1.11 ahead of ECB, USD/JPY oscillates around 140 and antipodeans lead the majors.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Gfk, US Durable Goods, PCE Prices Advance, IJC, GDP Advance, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference with Lagarde, Supply from Italy & US.
- Earnings from L'Air Liquide, BNP Paribas, Mercedes-Benz, ArcelorMittal, L'Oreal, Poste Italiane, Renault, Schneider Electric, STMicroelectronics, TotalEnergies, Volkswagen, Anglo American, Barclays, BT, Shell, McDonald's, Ford, Abbvie, Mastercard & Intel Corp.
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- European bourses are generally subdued with the Euro Stoxx 50 weighed on by LVMH -4.4%
- Stateside, futures are more contained pre-FOMC and as participants digest after-hours MSFT & GOOGL updates
- DXY continues to slip amid ongoing JPY strength with EUR benefitting as the three regions near policy announcements; AUD lags post-CPI
- Crude benchmarks a touch softer intraday after Tuesday’s multi-month peaks with base metals in-fitting, XAU benefits from the USD
- EGBs are cagey with drivers limited while USTs tick higher and more so at the short-end pre-Fed
- Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales, FOMC Policy Announcement and Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference. Earnings from Boeing, Meta, Thermo Fisher, & Coca-Cola.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed with most bourses lacking firm direction heading into the FOMC later today.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY was contained on a 101 handle, EUR/USD languished below 1.11, Cable eyes 1.29, AUD soft post-CPI.
- Softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia supported the argument for the RBA to continue its pause on rates at next week’s meeting.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales, FOMC Policy Announcement and Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference, Earnings from Porsche AG, Santander, Danone, Deutsche Bank, Stellantis, Equinor, Airbus, GSK, Lloyds, Boeing, Meta & Coca-Cola.
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- European bourses & US futures are incrementally positive ahead of numerous key earnings from both sides of the pond
- DXY slipped to 101.18 before deriving support from an Ifo/ECB BLS driven hit to the Euro, AUD leads pre-CPI
- Core benchmarks are modestly pressured as earlier upside dissipates despite a strong DMO sale, US 5yr due
- German Ifo shows a return to growth contraction in Q3 while the ECB survey illustrates the ongoing impact of policy tightening
- Crude trims APAC gains on German growth concerns while metals welcome Chinese stimulus, XAU near the 100-DMA
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Confidence, Supply from the US, Earnings from EssilorLuxottica, Kering, LVMH, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Moody's & GE.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch softer but remains on a 101 handle, EUR/USD is stuck below 1.11, AUD marginally outperforms.
- Crude futures held on to most of their recent spoils after climbing to 3-month highs amid China's stimulus hopes.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Consumer Confidence, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from EssilorLuxottica, Kering, LVMH, UniCredit, Unilever, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Moody's & GE.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch softer but remains on a 101 handle, EUR/USD is stuck below 1.11, AUD marginally outperforms.
- Crude futures held on to most of their recent spoils after climbing to 3-month highs amid China's stimulus hopes.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Consumer Confidence, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from EssilorLuxottica, Kering, LVMH, UniCredit, Unilever, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Moody's & GE.
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- ECB policy announcement due Thursday 27th July; rate decision at 13:15BST/08:15EDT, press conference from 13:45BST/08:45EDT
- Consensus and market pricing look for a 25bps hike, taking the deposit rate to 3.75%
- Focus will fall on clues over the ECB's tightening ambitions beyond July
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- European bourses are mixed with Flash PMIs flagging increased recession risks while Spain lags after Sunday’s stalemate
- Stateside, futures modestly firmer with the NQ in-fitting ahead of the special rebalance coming into effect
- DXY benefits from EUR & GBP pressure on disappointing PMIs while JPY regroups after further sources
- Crude benchmarks bolstered by the initial readout from China’s Politburo; base metals relatively unreactive while XAU follows the USD
- EGBs bolstered on poor PMIs with USTs following suit ahead of front-loaded supply given the FOMC
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, Supply from the US, Earnings from NXP Semiconductor
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- APAC stocks traded mostly positive but with gains capped ahead of upcoming key risk events.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.4% on Friday.
- DXY tested 101 to the downside, EUR/USD and Cable sit on 1.11 and 1.28 handles respectively, JPY marginally outperforms.
- None of the individual parties, nor the left or right blocs were able to secure a majority in the Spanish parliamentary election.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, Supply from the US, Earnings from NXP Semiconductor, Ryanair, Philips, Vodafone & Julius Baer.
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- Sun: Spanish Elections.
- Mon: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jul).
- Tue: German Ifo Survey (Jul), NBH Announcement, Richmond Fed (Jul).
- Wed: FOMC Announcement, Australian CPI (Jun).
- Thu: ECB Announcement, US GDP Advance/PCE (Q2).
- Fri: BoJ Announcement & Outlook Report, French Flash CPI (Jun), Spanish Flash CPI (Jun), EZ Business Confidence Survey (Jul), US PCE (Jun).
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- BoJ sources around YCC spark marked dovish reaction in JPY and JGBs, which has filtered through to broader assets
- DXY back above 101.00 with USD/JPY testing 142.00; action which eroded GBP’s retail-driven upside
- European/US equity benchmarks relatively contained, Tech hit by SAP while NQ benefits from yield action
- JGB upside briefly lifts peers with EGBs/USTs struggling for direction while Gilts slip on data
- Crude largely resilient to the USD’s upside with base metals underpinned on Chinese stimulus, XAU pressured
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from American Express & Schlumberger
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- US stocks mostly tumbled with the declines led by the Nasdaq 100 which posted its second worst day of the year.
- APAC stocks were mixed as further support efforts from China partially offset the headwinds from Wall St.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY held onto yesterday's gains, EUR/USD and Cable sit on 1.11 and 1.28 handles respectively, USD/JPY choppy post-Japanese CPI.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, Earnings from Danske Bank, Evolution AB, American Express & Schlumberger.
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- European bourses are firmer though TSMC’s results have pressured Tech and the Euro Stoxx 50/AEX by extension; SAP due today
- Stateside, NQ lags given pre-market downside in NFLX & TSLA post-earnings
- AUD bolstered by jobs data, Yuan rebounds and EUR underpinned by yields with DXY drifting
- Core benchmarks pullback as Wednesday’s Gilt-driven move eases; yields firmer, short-end leading
- Crude is little changed while Ags. are supported by Russia-Ukraine updates
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philly. Fed, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements. Earnings from SAP.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed following on from the choppy performance stateside as participants digested data and corporate earnings.
- Apple (AAPL) is racing to develop its own generative AI tools to catch OpenAI, according to Bloomberg.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY sits just above the 100 mark, AUD leads the majors post-jobs data, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.12, CNY supported
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Supply from Spain, France & US, Earnings from SAP, ABB, JNJ, Abbott & Phillip Morris.
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- European bourses & US futures are contained, with Real Estate leading while Base Resource names lag
- FTSE 100 outperforms after cooler-than-expected UK CPI, with Gilts bid, GBP dented and BoE pricing moving in favour of 25bp
- As such, GBP lags to the USD’s benefit while JPY approaches 140.0 and antipodeans lag
- Gilts outperform with an initial sympathy move for USTs and EGBs fading, the latter further after tepid supply
- Crude benefits from refinery action while nat gas continues to slip; spot gold unchanged, base metals dented
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speech from BoE's Ramsden, Supply from the US, Earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Goldman Sachs & IBM.
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- US stocks were bid with outperformance in the Russell 2000 amid strong gains in the regional banking ETF.
- APAC stocks were mixed as the ongoing China economic woes partially offset the constructive lead from Wall St.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed up by 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY has reclaimed the 100 level, EUR/USD maintains 1.12 status, JPY lags the majors with USD/JPY back on a 139 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speech from BoE's Ramsden, Supply from Germany, UK & US, Earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Goldman Sachs & IBM.
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- European bourses & US futures are contained ahead of earnings and data
- Within Europe, pre-market action was dominated by Q2 updates with Novartis’ results lifting its sector & the SMI
- DXY remains pressured but has found support around Friday’s trough with EUR, GBP & JPY appreciating
- Fixed income has extended its recovery rally heading towards MTD peaks, though Gilts off best after weak issuance
- USD and risk supports gold while crude remains rangebound with catalysts light
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Industrial Production, Canadian CPI & New Zealand CPI, Speeches from Fed's Barr. Earnings from Morgan Stanley & Bank of America.
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where tech and small caps outperformed.
- US President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices, according to Bloomberg.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday.
- DXY remains sub-100.00, EUR/USD hovers around 1.1250, Cable is eyeing a test of 1.31 to the upside.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Industrial Production, Canadian CPI & New Zealand CPI, Speeches from Fed's Barr, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Novartis, Ocado, Morgan Stanley & Bank of America.
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- European risk tone is hampered by mixed China data and subsequent cuts to the nations FY23 growth view by various desks
- Stateside, action is more contained with the docket relatively sparse ahead of Tuesday’s key earnings & with Fed blackout underway
- Crude benchmarks have returned to APAC lows on China & resumption of Libyan production, intersected by marked upside on a since withdrawn alert
- USD is pressured with havens outperforming though antipodeans are the marked underperformers after data and Treasury commentary
- Fixed income has been volatile, benchmarks now at the top-end of parameters with yields lower across the curve
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Speeches from ECB’s Elderson, US Treasury Secretary Yellen.
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- APAC stocks began the week subdued as participants digested mixed economic growth and activity data from China.
- Chinese GDP was firmer than expected QQ but disappointed YY, while Industrial Production topped estimates and Retail Sales missed.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% on Friday.
- DXY is contained just below the 100 mark, EUR/USD has maintained 1.12 status, antipodeans slightly lag peers.
- Crude futures were on the back foot with early headwinds from the resumption of production at Libya's largest oil field.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane & Elderson, Earnings from Richemont & Charles Schwab.
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- European bourses & US futures are relatively contained ahead of Fed speak and banking earnings
- Within Europe, Telecoms lag after updates from Ericsson and Nokia
- DXY struggles for direction just above 99.75 with peers mixed & JPY retreating
- Core fixed benchmarks diverge slightly as EGBs/Gilts extend while USTs slip ahead of data
- Commodities are generally contained with catalysts thin after a week of USD-driven upside
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Import & Export Prices, UoM Sentiment (Prelim), US Treasury Dealer Meeting Agenda. Earnings from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock & Citigroup. Fed's Goolsbee.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly higher after the positive lead from Wall St where yields continued to decline post-PPI.
- Fed's Waller (voter) said the Fed will likely need two more 25bps hikes this year and he favours raising rates at the July FOMC.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed up by 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY remains on a 99 handle, EUR/USD and Cable gain a firmer footing above 1.12 and 1.31 respectively.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Import & Export Prices, UoM Sentiment (Prelim), Swedish CPI, US Treasury Dealer Meeting Agenda, Earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock & Citigroup.
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- European bourses & US futures are firmer as the post-inflation action continues ahead of IJC
- DXY extends the post-inflation decline towards 100.00 amid a further retreat in yields
- Antipodeans outperform, EUR & GBP also bid; as above, fixed benchmarks continue to climb
- Crude inches higher with attention on Urals while spot gold is more contained but base metals extend
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, ECB Minutes, OPEC OMR, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded higher as the region reacted to the softer-than-expected US inflation data while weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data failed to dampen the spirit.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed up by 1.7% yesterday.
- DXY sits at its lowest level in over a year, EUR/USD and Cable maintain 1.11 and 1.30 status respectively, antipodeans lead.
- Fixed income markets remain supported post-CPI, Crude futures continued to edge higher owing to the upbeat risk tone.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, EZ Industrial Production, US IJC, ECB Minutes, IEA OMR, Supply from Italy & US, Earnings from PepsiCo.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board with Tech leading after favourable broker action
- US futures in the green but more contained ahead of CPI and Fed speak
- DXY continues to wane after losing 101.50, with JPY outperforming while antipodeans wane after Central Bank activity
- Core fixed income is modestly firmer as the recovery rally resumes and yields slip with the US belly heavy
- Commodities inch higher on the softer USD, but capped pre-inflation
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, Fed's Barkin, Kashkari, Bostic & Mester, ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed with the region cautious heading into today’s key US inflation data.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY slipped to a fresh two-month low as USD/JPY moved back below 140 and a firmer PBoC CNY fix, NZD is stronger post-RBNZ.
- RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected and agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, Fed's Barkin, Kashkari, Bostic & Mester, ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from Germany, UK & US.
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- European bourses remain firmer but off best levels as sentiment slips throughout the morning
- Stateside, futures in-fitting though action has been more contained and they remain much closer to Unch.
- DXY fails to benefit from the pullback in risk appetite as CHF and JPY outperform with UST yields pulling back, EUR unreactive to weak ZEW
- Core benchmarks are bid, with Gilts in-fitting despite hawkish wage metrics
- Crude has succumbed to the above move while precious and base metals prove more resilient
- Looking ahead, highlights include Fed Discount Rate Minutes, NATO Summit & EIA STEO, Speech from Fed's Bullard, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive following the tailwinds from the US while participants also reflected on China's support efforts.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.5% yesterday.
- DXY has extended further beneath 102, EUR/USD is back above 1.10, JPY leads the majors with USD/JPY below 141.
- Crude futures were marginally firmer owing to the risk tone, USTs slightly extended on gains ahead of US CPI data.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs report & German ZEW Survey, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, NATO Summit & EIA STEO, Speech from Fed's Bullard, Supply from Netherlands, Germany & US.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board but diverging with their US peers currently
- USD regains poise with Antipodeans fading and EUR noting OpEx; Scandis lead on CPI & Minutes
- Core fixed benchmarks are lower despite fleeting bounces ahead of data & several speakers
- Crude benchmarks remain softer post-Chinese CPI, base metals in-fitting while spot gold is more contained
- Yellen said the US & China made some progress at the bilateral meeting
- Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese M2, NY Fed SCE; Speeches from BoE's Bailey, Fed’s Barr, Daly, Mester & Bostic.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive albeit with gains capped for many of the regional bourses.
- US equity futures lacked excitement as participants look ahead to this week's risk events including US CPI data; European equity futures are indicative of a lower open.
- The latest Chinese inflation data missed estimates with zero consumer inflation in the mainland and a deeper contraction in factory gate prices.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen had a candid, in-depth, pragmatic, and constructive exchange with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI, EZ Sentix, Chinese M2, NY Fed SCE, Riksbank Minutes, and Speeches from BoE's Bailey, Fed’s Barr, Daly, Mester & Bostic.
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- European bourse began in the red, but have since moved modestly into the green; US futures remain softer pre-NFP
- JPY continues its comeback as spreads tighten to the detriment of the USD, index tethered to 103.00
- Fixed income has resumed its downward trajectory despite initial two-way action, benchmarks currently at lows
- Crude is firmer and benefitting from the USD downside and the week’s OPEC/Saudi remarks
- Looking ahead, highlights include the US NFP Report, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, Nagel & BoE's Mann.
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower amid spillover selling from global peers including in the US where the major indices were pressured.
- DXY remained confined to within a narrow range as price action calmed down from yesterday’s fluctuations, USD/JPY traded on both sides of the 144.00 level.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open after the Euro Stoxx 50 cash closed down by 2.9% yesterday.
- Some key purchasers of Saudi Arabia's crude in Asia and Europe are seeking lower volumes for next month after the kingdom hiked official prices and extended output cuts, according to Bloomberg.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production, US NFP Report, Canadian Jobs Report Speeches from ECB's Lagarde & de Guindos.
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- European bourses and US futures are pressured as growth concerns draw focus before key US data
- Cyclicals lag while defensives outperform, but remain red; Meta is bolstered as Threads launches
- DXY slips post-Minutes while USD/JPY reverses through 144.00 and Antipodeans lead despite risk aversion
- Gilts gap lower as BoE tightening expectations continue to lift, EGBs and USTs in-fitting with yields lifting further
- Crude holds onto modest upside while spot gold benefits from the USD and risk, factors which are denting base peers
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, US S&P Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, US EIA Crude Stocks, Speeches from Fed's Logan.
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower following the post-Independence Day hangover in the US owing to recent weak global data releases and a rising yield environment.
- The FOMC Minutes provided little to deviate from the current view of future rate increases - almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable to leave the target rate unchanged at the June meeting.
- Fed's Williams (voter) said he is not content with where inflation is right now, and that a June rate pause was the right move, but future hikes are still in play.
- DXY held on to the prior day’s gains owing to the upside in yields and after the FOMC Minutes, USD/JPY pulled back from its recent advances, and Antipodeans reversed early gains.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, EZ Retail Sales, US ADP, US S&P Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, US EIA Stocks, Speeches from Fed's Logan, UAE Energy Minister, supply from Spain and France.
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- European bourses are in the red after bleak EZ and Chinese PMI data, US futures similarly downbeat pre-FOMC Minutes
- Crude initially pressured on the above but lifted by Saudi commentary from the OPEC+ seminar
- DXY remains in close proximity to 103.00, with JPY benefitting from a broader yield pullback while EUR slips post-PMIs
- Fixed income is bid, following data and strong UK and German supply; yields lower, short-end leading
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods & Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes, OPEC International Seminar
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower following the holiday lull stateside and as participants digested the latest Chinese Caixin Services PMI data.
- DXY eked mild gains and retained the 103.00 status with price action rangebound after the Independence Day celebrations in the US.
- Crude futures faded some of the prior day's gains amid the mostly risk-averse mood in Asia, while the focus turns to the OPEC International Seminar.
- Chinese President Xi personally warned Russian President Putin against using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to FT citing Western and Chinese officials.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK Services Final PMI, US Durable Goods & Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes, OPEC International Seminar, Speeches from Saudi and UAE Energy Ministers, and Supply from UK & Germany.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed with the regional bourses mostly rangebound amid the holiday-thinned conditions stateside
- DXY traded rangebound, EUR/USD and GBP/USD lacked direction, USD/JPY was choppy, AUD slipped after the RBA.
- The RBA decided to keep rates on hold, but maintained a hawkish tone and kept the door open for future rate hikes.
- Two drones were intercepted in the Moscow region and one in the Kaluga region, according to Russian press.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian PMI, US Independence Day Holiday.
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- European bourses are firmer with sectors similarly supported while US futures are incrementally higher pre-ISM and after a constructive APAC handover
- Tesla outperforms in the pre-market after record Q2 deliveries, TSLA +6.2%
- In FX the USD recovers post-Friday’s data while CHF lags post-CPI, EUR hit on PMIs and JPY dented as yield differentials widen
- Crude benchmarks were initially contained but have seen renewed upside on the Russian and Saudi production cut extensions
- Fixed benchmarks are choppy in thinned conditions with EGBs bid on data while USTs slip as yields continue to lift, short-end most pronounced
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing Final PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
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- APAC stocks began the new trading month on the front foot with momentum from last Friday's rally on Wall Street; European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open.
- DXY was contained ahead of the thinned conditions stateside where markets will close early owing to tomorrow’s Independence Day celebrations.
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts for its second consecutive monthly expansion.
- US confirmed that Treasury Secretary Yellen will visit China on July 6th-9th for meetings with senior Chinese officials although a Treasury official already tempered expectations.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- Holidays: Canada Observes Canada Day, US Early Closure ahead of Independence Day.
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- MON: BoJ Tankan Survey (Q2), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun), Swiss CPI (Jun), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- TUE: RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, South Korean CPI (Jun), German Trade Balance (May),
- WED: FOMC Minutes, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Jun), EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI Final (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May)
- THU: NBP Announcement, Australian Trade Balance (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jun)
- FRI: German Industrial Output (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Jobs Report (Jun)
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- European bourses trade on the front-foot with the Stoxx 600 on track to close the week out with gains, with little action seen on the EZ Flash CPI metrics.
- US equity futures are around flat/tilting higher ahead of today’s key PCE data for May, before traders head out for the long Independence Day holiday weekend.
- ASML does not expect the Dutch government's chip export measures to have a material impact on its financial outlook.
- China may announce more property market support measures although measures might be incremental, according to China Securities Journal.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE, EU leaders’ meeting
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- APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested a slew of data releases at quarter-end.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI matched estimates and Non-Manufacturing PMI was slightly softer-than-expected although remained in a firm expansion.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY has held on to a bulk of yesterday's gains, EUR/USD remains sub 1.09, USD/JPY is back below 145.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Germany Retail Sales, France CPI (Prelim), EZ CPI (Flash), US PCE, Speeches from Riksbank's Bremen & Thedeen, Supply from Italy.
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- APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested a slew of data releases at quarter-end.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI matched estimates and Non-Manufacturing PMI was slightly softer-than-expected although remained in a firm expansion.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY has held on to a bulk of yesterday's gains, EUR/USD remains sub 1.09, USD/JPY is back below 145.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Germany Retail Sales, France CPI (Prelim), EZ CPI (Flash), US PCE, Speeches from Riksbank's Bremen & Thedeen, Supply from Italy.
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- European bourses trade with little in the way of firm direction following a similarly indecisive close on Wall Street yesterday.
- US equity futures are around flat with the ES holding above the 4400 mark.
- Fed Chair Powell revealed his expectations for Friday’s PCE data (Core PCE likely rose 4.7% Y/Y in May, overall PCE estimated to have risen 3.9%) and remarked that a strong majority of Fed policymakers see two or more rate rises by the end of this year.
- Fed said 23 banks tested showed projected losses of USD 541bln in stress tests but maintain capital ratios well above the required levels.
- Sweden’s Riksbank hiked by 25bps as expected, while forecasts expect at least one more hike this year and increased the pace of bond sales.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI, US PCE Prices (Final), IJC & GDP (Final), remarks from BoE's Tenreyro
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- APAC stocks traded mixed amid some indecision heading closer towards month/quarter/half-year end and after the choppy performance stateside.
- US bank shares were marginally supported after-hours following the Fed's stress test results which all 23 of the largest banks passed.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up 0.9% yesterday.
- DXY is back on a 103 handle, EUR/USD slipped below 1.09, USD/JPY retained a footing above 144.50.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI, Spain CPI, US PCE Prices (Final), IJC & GDP (Final), Riksbank Policy Announcement, remarks from Fed's Powell & Bostic, BoE's Tenreyro & ECB's de Cos.
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- European bourses trade on the front foot as the region plays catch up to the afternoon gains on Wall Street.
- DXY defies gravity given negative rebalancing signals on spot month, Q1 and H1-end, as the index continued to pivot 102.50.
- Debt futures overcame several wobbles before establishing a more solid base to mount a firmer recovery from sub-par lows.
- WTI and Brent whipsawed between gains and losses this morning despite a lack of newsflow, but in the grander scheme, prices are choppy within tight ranges.
- US considers new curbs on AI chip exports to China amid some concerns China could use AI chips from Nvidia (-4% pre-market) and others for weapon development and hacking, according to WSJ.
- Looking ahead highlights include US Mortgage Applications, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, Lane & Enria, BoE's Pill, Panel Participation by BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Powell & BoJ's Ueda, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed and only partially sustained the momentum from Wall St. which was led higher by tech.
- Softer-than-expected monthly CPI data from Australia added to the bets for the RBA to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up 0.6% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch firmer above 102.50, AUD lags post-CPI, EUR losses stemmed by further hawkish ECB source reports.
- Highlights include EZ M3 Growth, Italian CPI (Prelim), US Mortgage Applications, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos, Lane & Enria, BoE's Pill, Panel Participation by BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Powell & BoJ's Ueda, Supply from UK & US.
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- European bourses have been edging lower throughout the morning despite the enthusiasm seen ahead of the cash open, with the ECB Sintra Forum underway.
- DXY is on a softer footing intraday with the range on either side of 102.50, whilst prelim rebalancing models tilt Dollar-negative.
- Debt futures have extended their pull-back from yesterday’s best levels to deeper lows.
- WTI and Brent futures have given up the mild gains seen in early European hours alongside a deterioration in risk sentiment.
- Overnight, Chinese state banks were spotted selling dollars in offshore currency markets to prop up the yuan, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales-Units, Canadian CPI, and supply from US.
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- US stocks finished predominantly lower with underperformance in the Nasdaq, whilst small caps were resilient and the Russell 2000 closed in the green
- APAC stocks were mostly positive as the risk tone improved following the predominantly negative handover from the US
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed up 0.2% yesterday
- DXY is a touch softer but holding above 102.50; downside coincided with a stronger CNH after the PBoC set a firmer-than-expected currency fix
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales-Units, Canadian CPI, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, Panetta, Elderson, Schnabel, BoE's Dhingra & Tenreyro, BoC's Kozicki, Supply from Netherlands, Italy & UK.
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- European bourses trade on the backfoot following on from the soft close in the US on Friday with losses having picked up since the cash open.
- DXY is caged to a tight range on either side of 102.75, EUR looks heavy after bleak German Ifo data, and Yen is among the outperformers.
- Safe havens are bid across the board, with bonds, precious metals, JPY and CHF on firmer.
- German Ifo Economist said the likelihood that the German economy will shrink again in Q2 has increased.
- Wagner Group chief Prigozhin accepted a proposal by Belarusian President Lukashenko to stop the movement of his troops to Moscow.
- Looking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Lagarde speaking at the ECB Sintra Forum, and supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly subdued after Friday's losses on Wall St with weekend newsflow dominated by the brief uprising of the Wagner Group in Russia.
- Wagner Group chief Prigozhin accepted a proposal by Belarusian President Lukashenko to stop the movement of his troops to Moscow.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed down 0.8% on Friday.
- In FX, DXY is rangebound, EUR/USD lingers just above 1.09, Cable found a floor at 1.27 and NZD outperforms.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo Survey, ECB’s Lagarde Speaks at the ECB Sintra Forum, Supply from EU & US.
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- MON: BoJ SOO, German Ifo Survey (Jun)
- TUE: Canadian CPI (May)
- WED: ECB TLTRO-III.4 Operation Matures, German GfK (Jul), Italian CPI (Jun)
- THU: Riksbank Announcement, Japanese Retail Sales (May), EZ Sentiment Survey (Jun), German Prelim. CPI (Jun), US GDP Final (Q1) and PCE (Q1)
- FRI: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Jun), Chinese NBS PMIs (Jun), German Unemployment (Jun), EZ Flash CPI (Jun), US PCE (May), US Chicago PMI (Jun), and Uni. of Michigan Final (Jun)
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- European bourses trade on the backfoot with sentiment in the region subdued after the Flash PMIs sounded recessionary warnings.
- US equity futures are also lower on the session with the ES briefly dipping under 4,400.
- Havens (ex-CHF) are bid on the back of the risk aversion while industrial commodities take a hit on growth concerns.
- Fed's Barkin (non-voter) said he is comfortable with more hikes if inflation is not heading to the goal but he will not prejudge the July meeting, according to Reuters.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PMI (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Bostic, Mester & ECB's Panetta, Schnabel and Elderson.
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- US stocks finished mixed. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 snapped their recent losing streaks with outperformance in the latter
- APAC stocks failed to sustain an early positive bias and faltered following the mixed performance stateside
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7% after the cash market closed down 0.4% yesterday
- DXY is firmer and back above 102.50, EUR/USD extended its pullback from 1.10, USD/JPY sits on a 143 handle, antipodeans lag
- Looking ahead, highlights include EU, UK, US PMI (Flash), UK Retail Sales, Speeches from Fed's Bostic, Mester & Bullard, ECB's Lagarde, Panetta, Schnabel & Elderson.
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- European bourses trade on the backfoot with selling pressure having picked up since the cash open; Chinese markets were closed overnight.
- US equity futures are also softer on the session, albeit to a lesser extent than European peers with the ES just about holding around the 4400 mark.
- SNB’s rate hike disappointed markets but matched analyst expectations while Norges opted for a larger-than-forecast rate hike and guided another hike in August.
- DXY sits in a tight range on either side of 102.00, EUR/USD eventually reclaimed 1.10+ status, with hefty in-the-money OpEx for the NY cut.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Existing Home Sales, EU Consumer Confidence (Flash), BoE, CBRT & Banxico announcements, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bowman, Barkin, ECB's de Guindos
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- Fed Chair Powell, when asked about the two hikes pencilled into the dot plot, responded "That's a pretty good guess of what will happen".
- Fed's Bostic (non-voter) said that rates should stay where they are for the rest of the year.
- APAC stocks were mostly lower following the tech-led declines on Wall St and with risk appetite also constrained by key holiday closures.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed down 0.5% yesterday.
- DXY remains supported by the 102 level, EUR/USD eyed 1.10 to the upside, cable hovers above 1.2750 pre-BoE.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Existing Home Sales, EU Consumer Confidence (Flash), BoE, SNB, Norges, CBRT & Banxico announcements, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bowman, Barkin & Waller, ECB's de Guindos & Panetta, SNB's Jordan & Norges Bank's Bache.
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- European bourses are indecisive with the main macro story of the session thus far coming via UK inflation metrics.
- GBP only knee-jerked higher on the hotter-than-expected CPI before shedding all and more of its gains on economic implications of further BoE tightening.
- DXY is firmer pre-Powell whilst the JPY is softer following more dovish BoJ commentary.
- US Treasuries have regained composure whilst Bunds saw a full recovery and Gilts trimmed a bulk of opening losses.
- Russian Defence Ministry says it has thwarted an attempt by Kyiv to launch an attack on the Moscow region with drones.
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Minutes, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Jefferson, Cook, Goolsbee, Mester & ECB's Schnabel, supply from the US.
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- European bourses & US futures are pressured ahead of the return of US participants and key Fed speakers
- DXY has drifted after a brief/small extension to 102.62, JPY rebounds though notes OpEx while AUD lags after RBA Minutes
- PBoC cut the LPRs as expected, though the 5yrs magnitude disappointed some expectations; Biden said relations are on the correct trail
- EGB benchmarks consolidation topped out near round figures with UTS paring losses in response though still underwater
- Crude benchmarks pare to near unchanged, spot gold rangebound while base metals languish on ongoing APAC economic concerns
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits & Housing Starts, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Barr & Bullard, ECB's de Guindos
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower in the absence of a lead from Wall St and as markets digested the PBoC’s cuts to its benchmark lending rates.
- As expected, China lowered its 1-year LPR after similar cuts to short-term funding rates but disappointed those anticipating a deeper 15bps cut for the 5-year LPR.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 unchanged after the cash market closed down 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY is marginally firmer above 102.50, EUR/USD and USD/JPY sit on 1.09 and 142 handles respectively, AUD lags post-RBA minutes.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits & Housing Starts, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Barr & Bullard, ECB's de Guindos & Rehn, Supply from UK & Germany.
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- APAC stocks were mostly negative following last Friday's losses on Wall St, while risk appetite was also contained as markets digested US-China talks.
- The meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin was said to be candid, substantive and constructive although it lacked any breakthroughs.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7% after the cash market closed up 0.7% on Friday.
- DXY is contained, EUR/USD and Cable sit on 1.09 and 1.28 handles respectively, JPY leads the majors, antipodeans lag.
- Looking ahead, highlights include ECB SOMA, Speeches from ECB’s Lane, Schnabel & de Guindos. US markets are closed.
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- MON: US Juneteenth Market Holiday
- TUE: PBoC LPR Announcement, RBA Minutes, NBH Announcement, German PPI (May), US Building Permits (May)
- WED: BoC Minutes, BCB Announcement, CNB Announcement, UK Inflation (May), New Zealand Trade Balance (May)
- THU: BoE Announcement, SNB Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, Banxico Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement
- FRI: Japanese CPI (May), UK Retail Sales (May), EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jun)
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- European bourses are firmer across the board and largely unphased by numerous ECB speakers
- Stateside, futures post modest gains and await the likes of Fed’s Waller and Barkin as the blackout lifts
- DXY has lifted off-lows with Yen assisting post-BoJ while EUR pivots OpEx and GBP continues to advance
- Fixed income experiences a modest and perhaps technically driven revival alongside notably less explicit Holzmann commentary
- Crude slips slightly while base metals lift on further Chinese stimulus, though copper bucks the trend
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Uni. of Michigan Sentiment Preliminary, ECB Repayment Publication, Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Barkin, ECB’s Lagarde, Villeroy & de Guindos.
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- APAC stocks traded higher following the gains on Wall St where the major indices were lifted alongside a weaker dollar and softer yields.
- The BoJ refrained from any hawkish surprises and maintained its ultra-easy policy settings.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed down 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY is contained following yesterday's heavy losses, JPY is the laggard across the majors post-BoJ.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), US Uni. of Michigan Sentiment Preliminary, ECB Repayment Publication, Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Barkin & Bullard, ECB’s Lagarde & de Guindos.
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- European bourses & US futures trade on the backfoot post-FOMC and pre-ECB
- DXY propped up, AUD outperforms following a strong jobs report whilst NZD lags as it enters a recession
- JPY majorly lags on the prospect of even wider BoJ-Fed divergence ahead of Friday’s meeting
- Core benchmarks slip and extend on post-Fed declines whilst European supply was well received
- Base/industrial metals dented on softer Chinese activity data despite a 10bp MLF cut
- Looking ahead, highlights include; ECB's Policy announcement, Lagarde Press Conference, US IJC, US Philly Fed Business Ind, US Retail Sales MM, US Industrial Production, BoE's Cunliffe
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- The Fed left rates unchanged as expected whilst revising the dot plots higher which are now indicative of two more 25bp hikes this year.
- Fed Chair Powell distanced himself from the dot plots in the press conference whereby he noted that projections are not a plan or a decision.
- US stocks finished mixed, APAC stocks traded mostly higher despite disappointing activity data from China; PBoC cut its 1-year MLF rates by 10bps.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed up 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY has continued to claw back yesterday's losses, JPY is the standout laggard across the majors amid interest rate differential flows.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference with ECB's Lagarde, Supply from Spain & France.
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- Equity bourses are firmer with the general risk tone constructive pre-FOMC
- USD continues to wane and nears 103.00 to the modest benefit of peers, Antipodeans lead G10s
- GBP is firmer post-GDP while EUR/USD is drawn to hefty 1.08 expiries
- USTs bid before the Fed, Bunds slip after soft issuance and Gilts attempt to recoup from recent pressure
- Crude consolidation continues, metals are mixed with fresh drivers limited
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI. FOMC Policy Announcement & Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference.
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- APAC stocks were somewhat mixed with the region's bourses mostly tentative despite gains on Wall Street.
- US stocks were firmer after the latest CPI data all but confirmed the likelihood of an unchanged Fed rate.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY is contained ahead of the FOMC, EUR/USD lingers below 1.08, GBP/USD maintains 1.26 status.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, EZ Industrial Production, UK GDP Estimate, Sweden CPI, FOMC Policy Announcement & Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference, Supply from Germany.
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- European bourses & US futures are firmer but off best levels in a continuation of Monday’s action and ahead of US CPI
- NQ is the outperformer as the tech sector benefits from Oracle strength post-earnings
- USD dips pre-inflation while GBP lifts post-jobs/wages, Yuan attempts to recover after PBoC action
- Gilts continue to lag, impacted by data, supply and BoE rhetoric while USTs are once again more contained
- Crude bid after a softer settlement, base metals and spot gold glean support from China action/reports and USD respectively
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI. Speeches from BoE's Bailey, Dhingra; US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Supply from the US. OPEC MOMR at 12:20BST/07:20ET
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- APAC stocks eventually traded mostly higher following the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notched fresh YTD highs.
- Nikkei 225 resumed its outperformance and breached the 33,000 level for the first time in over three decades.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7% after the cash market closed up 0.6% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch softer in quiet trade, EUR/USD is capped by resistance ahead of 1.08, GBP awaits UK jobs metrics.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, UK Jobs Report, EU & German ZEW, Speeches from BoE's Bailey, Dhingra & ECB's Enria, Supply from Italy, UK, German & US.
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- European bourses & US futures are firmer despite a distinct lack of fresh drivers ahead of the week’s key events
- DXY wanes with Antipodeans firmer, EUR rebounding towards 1.08 and GBP bid post-Haskel
- Gilts underperform generally subdued core benchmarks following BoE remarks while BTPs and JGBs buck the bearish trend
- Crude and base metals continue to slip with spot gold benefits from the softer USD
- China’s Foreign Ministry says they have no information on a Blinken visit
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE & supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed with the region mostly cautious at the start of a risk-packed week.
- US equity futures were flat overnight; European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open.
- DXY was marginally positive amid the cautious mood but with price action kept within a thin range; USD/JPY was indecisive after early upside.
- Several Chinese lenders cut yuan deposit rates from Monday which follows similar action by China's largest banks on Friday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include highlights include US NY Fed SCE, Supply from EU & US.
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- MON: NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- TUE: OPEC MOMR, German Final CPI (May), UK Jobs Data (Apr/May), German ZEW Survey (Jun), US CPI (May).
- WED: FOMC Announcement, IEA OMR (2024 Forecast), UK GDP (Apr), Swedish CPIF (May), EZ Industrial Production (Apr), US PPI (May), New Zealand GDP (Q1).
- THU: ECB Announcement, PBoC MLF Announcement, Eurogroup meeting, Japanese Trade Balance (May), Australian Job Report (May), Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production (May), US Philly Fed (Jun), US Retail Sales (May).
- FRI: BoJ Announcement, ECB TLTRO III.5-10 Repayment, EZ Final CPI (May), Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Jun), Quad Witching.
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- European bourses & US futures are contained with newsflow limited and the docket ahead sparse
- USD/JPY lifted by dovish BoJ sources with the DXY firmer and above 103.50, Yuan hit on soft CPI
- Fixed benchmarks relatively rangebound into the weekend and looking to next week’s key events
- Crude pivots particularly narrow parameters while XAU slips and base metals grind higher
- US Secretary of State Blinken's long-delayed Beijing trip is now in planning for next week, according to Politico.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Data.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 entered a bull market and tech outperformed.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.1% yesterday.
- DXY is contained just below 103.50, EUR/USD sits around two week highs, USD/JPY has reclaimed 139 status.
- US Secretary of State Blinken's long-delayed Beijing trip is now in planning for next week, according to Politico.
- White House said the report that Iran and the US are nearing a deal on Iranian uranium enrichment and sanctions relief is false.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Data & Speech from ECB's de Guindos.
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- European bourses & US futures are mixed flat with updates limited in quiet newsflow
- DXY continues to pullback below 104.00 with G10s firmer across the board and activity-FX outperforming
- Core benchmarks continue to pullback but are off session lows with USTs contained pre-IJC & refunding
- Commodities are similarly contained, with crude and key metals in thin ranges and following the wider risk tone
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, SNB's Jordan & BoC's Beaudry.
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- APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the mixed handover from Wall St where tech underperformed as global yields climbed.
- RBI kept the key Repo Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, with the decision on rates unanimous.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5% after the cash market closed down 0.1% yesterday.
- DXY is flat and lingering just below the 104 mark, EUR/USD is back above 1.07, USD/JPY retreated below 140.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC & Speech from SNB's Jordan.
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- European bourses are softer with the complex drifting post-open amid a lack of catalysts/drivers
- Stateside, action is in-fitting as we look to next week’s Tier 1 US events with the BoC looming in the interim
- DXY has drifted back to 104.00 as JPY benefits from lower US yields, AUD underpinned and CAD bid
- Core benchmarks have recouped from an initial reversal to/through prior closes; green Bobl and Gilt sales strong
- Crude benchmarks are firmer and back towards post-inventory levels as the USD dips and despite overnight trade data from China
- US Secretary of State Blinken is set to travel to China for talks in the coming weeks
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Policy Announcement
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- APAC stocks mostly gained following the positive handover from Wall St where the S&P 500 posted its highest close YTD
- Chinese trade data mostly disappointed including the wider-than-expected contraction in dollar-denominated exports
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed flat yesterday
- DXY hovers just above the 104 mark, EUR/USD is capped by 1.07, USD/JPY continues to pull back from 140.
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Policy Announcement, remarks from ECB's de Guindos, Knot & Panetta, Supply from UK & Germany.
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- European bourses are firmer as sentiment improves after the US House vote & Chinese Caixin PMI
- Stateside, futures are more contained as debt focus turns to the Senate and potential amendment votes
- DXY subdued after Wednesday’s Fed remarks with attention turning to US data before Friday’s NFP
- Flash EZ HICP spurred little sustained reaction, as it chimes with regionals; debt benchmarks dip after month-end
- Commodities are generally firmer given the Chinese data though crude has pared much of this since
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Challenger Layoffs, ADP, IJC, Manufacturing PMI. ECB Minutes. Remarks from Fed's Harker & ECB's Enria.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive after the US House passed the debt ceiling bill to avert a default which now moves to the Senate
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data partially atoned for yesterday’s weak official PMI readings.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7% after the cash market closed down 1.7% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch firmer on a 104 handle, EUR/USD remains stuck below 1.07, NZD and AUD diverge.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Challenger Layoffs, ADP, IJC, EZ Flash CPI & Unemployment Rate, EZ, US & UK Manufacturing PMIs, ECB Minutes, BoE DMP, remarks from Fed's Harker, ECB's Lagarde & Enria, Supply from Spain & France.
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- Equities in Europe are mostly mildly softer with the ranges particularly narrow ahead of the US jobs report; US futures in-fitting
- DXY is under pressure with peers modestly firmer and JPY outpacing given yield differentials and Tamura's remarks
- Bunds are modest bid but failed to breach 143.00 with USTs essentially unchanged pre-NFP
- Crude benchmarks similarly contained awaiting oil cap/OPEC+ developments
- Beijing City is to ease its COVID travel restrictions from Monday while reports indicate the Politburo could signal a more reasonable approach
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Jobs Reports, Speakers from ECB's de Guindos, Fed's Barkin & Evans.
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- APAC stocks were subdued following the uninspired lead from the US ahead of the looming NFP jobs report.
- European equity futures were slightly lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% yesterday.
- DXY remains sub 105, EUR/USD breached 1.05 to the upside, GBP narrowly lags G10 FX, NZD is the modest outperformer.
- EU officials are to resume discussions to break the deadlock on a price cap for Russian oil at USD 60/bbl.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Jobs Reports, EZ Producer Prices, Speakers from ECB's Lagarde & de Guindos, Fed's Barkin & Evans.
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- European bourses have benefited from the post-Powell surge, US futures more contained pre-data
- Additional support derived in APAC hours from China's PMIs and COVID adjustments
- DXY remains downbeat given the dovish Powell reaction, JPY is the standout beneficiary given rate differentials
- EGBs are bid with pricing for December's ECB tilting towards 50bp given the magnitude of overnight price action, Lane speaks later
- Crude benchmarks are little changed overall but have been choppy throughout the morning with specific developments limited
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM, IJC, PCE Price Index, Speeches from Fed's Barr, Bowman & Logan, ECB's Lane & Elderson
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- APAC stocks took impetus from the strong rally on Wall Street (SPX +3.06%, NDX +4.58%) after Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
- Fed Chair Powell said it makes sense to moderate the pace of interest rate hikes, adding he does not want to over-tighten but cutting rates is not something to do soon.
- Chinese Vice Premier Chunlan noted that the country’s fight against COVID is entering a new phase, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts.
- European equity futures were positive with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY was pressured post-Powell with DXY on a 105 handle, JPY leads G10 FX, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.04.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM, IJC, PCE Price Index, EU Council President Michel visits China, Speeches from Fed's Barr, Bowman & Logan, ECB's Lane & Elderson, Supply from Spain, UK & France.
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- European equities trade on a firmer footing following mixed leads from Wall St, with eyes set on Fed Chair Powell
- DXY under pressure after failing to surpass 107.00 overnight, Cable above 1.20 with antipodeans leading
- Yuan, base metals and COVID-sensitive areas supported following the latest China testing/restriction alterations
- Core bonds dented as core EZ inflation fails to decline, USTs directionally in-fitting but little changed overall pre-Powell
- Crude firmer intraday as the overall tone remains constructive and the USD dips
- Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim., JOLTS, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bowman, Cook
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- APAC stocks eventually traded mostly higher although gains were capped following the subdued handover from Wall St and disappointing Chinese PMI data.
- European equity futures were positive with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed flat yesterday.
- DXY ran out of steam ahead of 107, EUR/USD and Cable reside on 1.03 and 1.19 handles respectively, NZD outperforms.
- OPEC+ is likely to keep output levels flat at the Sunday meeting, according to WSJ citing delegates.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss KOF, German Unemployment, EZ CPI (Flash), US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim., JOLTS, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bowman, Cook & BoE's Pill, Supply from Germany.
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- European bourses trade mixed after the initial China-led optimism petered out in early European hours, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%.
- US futures are supported but off best levels ahead of Powell on Wednesday and data points thereafter, ES +0.3%
- USD remains underpinned above 106.00 after Monday’s Fed speak, but is softer overall with antipodeans leading
- Crude benchmarks are bid on speculation around China’s COVID controls easing, with participants also eyeing OPEC+
- EGBs bid by German State and Spanish Flash November inflation data, USTs lifted in tandem though magnitudes are more contained
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Prelim.), US Consumer Confidence, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches ECB's Schnabel, BoE's Bailey & Mann, SNB's Schlegel.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive with the improvement in risk appetite spurred after China protests were clamped down on by police.
- Fed's Bullard said markets are underpricing the risk that the Fed may be more aggressive, Williams sees a somewhat higher rate path in 2023 vs the September SEPs.
- European equity futures were slightly positive with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.6% yesterday.
- DXY remains on a 106 handle, EUR/USD and cable sit on 1.03 and 1.20 handles respectively, antipodeans lead major FX pairs.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence (Final), German CPI (Prelim.), US Consumer Confidence, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches ECB's de Guindos & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey & Mann, Supply from Italy.
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- Cash bourses in Europe hold the downside bias seen across APAC stocks overnight which emanated from China reporting a record increase in COVID cases
- Stateside, futures are under similar pressure with the ES below 4000
- USD is under pressure as the risk tone favours JPY & others, alongside month-end models pointing to USD selling
- Initial haven bid in EGBs has faded ahead of Central Bank speak incl. President Lagarde
- Crude is pressured on the China-COVID demand front and as Chevron is to receive a license to import Venezuelan crude
- Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Williams & Bullard.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly lower with risk appetite sapped by the ongoing COVID-related issues in China which has resulted in public unrest.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.6% after cash markets closed flat on Friday.
- DXY remains stuck on a 106 handle, EUR/USD lingers around 1.0350, JPY outperforms G10 FX, antipodeans lag.
- Crude declined with Brent beneath USD 82/bbl for the first time since January and WTI printed a YTD low.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EU Money Supply and Private Sector Loans, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & de Cos, Fed’s Williams & Bullard.
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- European bourses and US futures are near the unchanged mark with newsflow limited in holiday-sapped trade
- DXY has experienced a resurgence to 106+ parameters, aided by the PBoC cutting the RRR as touted
- Core fixed is under pressure with Bund’s below yesterday’s trough though holding onto the 141.00 mark; USTs in-fitting directionally
- Crude benchmarks have been grinding higher despite the USD pickup and further China COVID controls, oil price cap talks set to resume later
- Looking ahead highlights include ECB’s de Guindos
- Note, the desk will operate a normal service until 18:15GMT/13:15EST, upon which the desk will close.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed with price action mostly rangebound amid a lack of notable newsflow and Wall St. trade.
- European equity futures were uneventful with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after cash market closed up by 0.4% yesterday.
- DXY remains on a 105 handle, EUR/USD holds on to 1.04 status, G10 FX is overall relatively contained.
- Crude was marginally higher as top OPEC producers reaffirmed sticking to the OPEC+ framework.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GfK (Nov), German GDP Detailed (Q3), CBRT Financial Stability Report.
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- APAC stocks followed suit to the gains on Wall St with risk sentiment underpinned following the FOMC Minutes which supported the view for the Fed to shift to smaller rate hike increments.
- China reported daily new COVID-19 cases in the mainland reached a record high and ordered a lockdown in Zhengzhou following violent protests.
- European equity futures are essentially unchanged in thin trade ahead of numerous Central Bank speakers.
- DXY is on a 105 handle with EUR/USD and GBP/USD above 1.04 and 1.21 respectively. JPY leads G10 FX.
- Looking ahead, highlights include, German Ifo, ECB Minutes, Riksbank, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE's Pill, Ramsden, Mann, ECB's Schnabel & de Guindos, Supply from Italy.
- US Thanksgiving holiday: Normal service until 18:00GMT/13:00EST, upon which the desk will close and then re-open later at 22:00GMT/17:00EST for the beginning of the Asia Pacific session.
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- European bourses are flat/mixed and have struggled for direction all morning despite fleeting hawkish reactions to the region's PMIs
- Stateside, action is similarly ahead of a somewhat busier data docket on the last full session before Thanksgiving
- DXY reclaims but struggles to advance on 107.00 while Kiwi flies post 75bp RBNZ hike, GBP bolstered by PMIs & a court ruling
- Gilts outperform ahead of supply and BoE's Pill while core EGBs are more contained after brief hawkish moves
- Crude capped by oil cap reports ahead of a potential EU Ambassadors discussion; benchmarks gave up their initial modest consolidation and now post downside of near 2.0%
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, US Durable Goods, IJC, New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, Speeches from ECB's de Guindos & BoE's Pill.
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- APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St where sentiment was underpinned amid a global risk revival.
- European equity futures were modestly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after cash markets closed up by 0.5% yesterday.
- DXY trades flat just above the 107 mark, EUR/USD is back on a 1.03 handle, NZD is firmer post-RBNZ.
- The RBNZ delivered a historic 75bps rate hike and raised its peak OCR forecasts to 5.50% from 4.10%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Durable Goods, IJC, New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, Speeches from ECB's de Guindos & BoE's Pill, Supply from the UK & Germany.
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- European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, though fresh developments have been limited and the upside itself is tentative at best.
- USD has lost overnight recovery momentum with peers benefiting across the board with the Kiwi leading ahead of the RBNZ
- Rangebound trade for core fixed income, though intraday boundaries have extended on both sides
- Comparably contained session for the crude complex after yesterday’s pronounced OPEC+ related price action, further pushback to Monday's production reports
- Looking ahead, highlights include Australian PMIs Flash, Speeches from Fed's Bullard, George, Mester & ECB's Nagel, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive as regional bourses attempted to recover from the recent China COVID woes.
- European equity futures were modestly higher overnight with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after cash markets closed lower by 0.4% yesterday.
- DXY has pulled back after topping out just shy of 108, USD/JPY Is back below 142 and EUR/USD remains stuck on a 1.02 handle.
- Saudi officials denied talk of an increase in OPEC+ oil output; said the current cut of 2mln BPD is to continue until the end of 2023.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Flash, Australian PMIs Flash, Speeches from Fed's Bullard, George, Mester & ECB's Rehn, Supply from Germany & US.
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- European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, as China's COVID crackdown weighs on sentiment
- Stateside, futures are similarly impaired at the start of a holiday-thinned week with today's US docket particularly thin ex-supply
- USD has benefited from above risk-aversion with G10 peers lower across the board, particularly Yen & Yuan
- Despite pronounced action earlier on, core fixed benchmarks are in relative proximity to the unchanged mark with Bunds just 20 ticks lower overall
- Commodities slip amid the COVID updates and USD upside, factors which are overshadowing BP's Rotterdam refinery closure and union action
- Fed’s Bostic said he is ready to move away from 75bps hikes at the Dec. meeting, believes another 75bps-100bps tightening will be warranted & sufficient to rein in inflation
- Looking ahead, highlights include US 2 & 5 yr supply.
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- APAC stocks began the week mostly lower amid headwinds from China after several areas announced fresh virus restrictions.
- European equity futures were softer overnight with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after cash markets closed higher by 1.2% on Friday.
- DXY is back on a 107 handle with EUR/USD, Cable and USD/JPY on 1.02, 1.18 and 140 handles respectively.
- Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) believes that another 75bps-100bps tightening will be warranted and sufficient to rein in inflation.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, Speech from BoE’s Cunliffe & Supply from the US.
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- European bourses have experienced a firm bounce throughout the morning, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, one which has occurred without a clear fundamental driver.
- Stateside, performance is much the same though magnitudes are a touch more contained, ES +0.6%.
- Core benchmarks are under notable pressure, downside which seemingly commenced without a clear catalyst or driver and prior to the latest remarks from ECB’s Lagarde & TLTRO.III repayment
- DXY has continued to consolidate on a 106 handle within 106.32-106.78 parameters with peers mostly firmer vs USD.
- Crude benchmarks are little changed in what has until recently been a quiet session before the latest China-COVID developments
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- APAC stocks traded mostly firmer as sentiment somewhat picked up following the negative handover from Wall Street
- DXY was choppy on either side of 106.50 but held a downside bias whilst G10s gained and the NZD and GBP outperformed
- European equity futures were firmer overnight, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after cash markets closed lower by 0.1%.
- North Korea fired a missile believed to be an ICBM with the capacity to reach the US mainland; the missile fell inside Japan's EEZ
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, Norwegian GDP, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Haskel, Sovereign Debt Ratings for Portugal, South Africa, Turkey, Italy and Sweden.
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- Stocks in Europe are on a mixed footing after scaling back opening gains with no clear fundamental catalyst driving price action thus far ahead of numerous events.
- Similar action in US futures with the ES back below 4k ahead of data, Fed speak and some corporate updates.
- DXY has seen an intra-day recovery from a 106.08 low to a 106.68 peak, with G10 peers now all pressured vs initial modest upside against the Greenback.
- Gilts unchanged ahead of significant fiscal changes from the UK, 10yr yield at 3.15%; USTs await Fed speak post-Waller.
- Crude benchmarks are under modest pressure given the USD recovery throughout the morning, generally softer APAC tone and a continuing deterioration to the China COVID case count weighing.
- Ags. in focus and pressured following an as-expected extension to the Black Sea grain deal.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits, US Philly Fed, US IJC, Speeches from BoE's Pill, Fed's Bostic, Bullard, Bowman, Mester, Kashkari, Jefferson, Evans, SNB's Maechler, UK Autumn Statement at 11:30GMT.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly lower throughout the session following the downbeat lead from Wall Street (-0.8%).
- DXY was choppy in a tight range and traded on either side of 106.50 after printing a 105.85-106.79 range yesterday; Yuan underperformed
- ECB officials may favour a 50bps rate hike in December rather than 75bps, although an inflation surge could still lead to 75bps, according to Bloomberg sources
- Fed's Waller (voter, hawk) said recent data have made him more comfortable with the idea of a 50bps hike in December
- European equity futures were flat overnight with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash markets closed lower by 0.8% yesterday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Final HICP, US Building Permits, US Philly Fed, US IJC, Speeches from BoE's Pill, Fed's Bostic, Bullard, Bowman, Mester, Kashkari, Jefferson, Evans, SNB's Maechler, Supply from Spain, France.
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- European bourses have spent much of the morning fairly contained but with a gradually increasing negative bias, as the recent rally pauses amid numerous geopolitical developments.
- DXY is once again on the backfoot and sub-106.00 to the modest benefit of peers, ex-JPY.
- The bund is currently near the unchanged mark despite some fairly marked gyrations overnight and throughout the European morning amid geopols. & hot UK CPI.
- Crude benchmarks began a touch softer digesting the latest clarifications, however reports of an oil tanker attack lifted price action.
- Fed's George (voter) says Fed should continue raising rates, but Fed should slow pace of hikes, WSJ reports.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales and IP, BoE Treasury Select Committee, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, Panetta, Fed's Williams, Barr, Waller, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded lower throughout the session but climbed off session lows as markets juggled the US PPI data and the latest geopolitical developments.
- Polish Foreign Ministry said a "Russian-made" rocket landed in a Polish village at 15:40 local time on Tuesday
- US officials said initial findings suggest the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to AP.
- DXY traded on either side of 106.50, EUR/USD remains on a 1.03 handle, JPY lags G10 FX, GBP eyes UK inflation metrics.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation, Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales and IP, ECB Financial Stability Review, BoE Treasury Select Committee, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, Panetta, de Cos, Fed's Williams, Barr, Waller, Supply from Germany, US.
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- European bourses are mixed overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, as opening gains scale back after a mostly constructive APAC session.
- Stateside, US futures are firmer across the board with Tech leading after strong APAC tech trade and in wake of Fed's Brainard, ES +0.7%.
- DXY continues to slip after a pronounced move which occurred prior to the European cash open, currently near sub-106.00 lows to the broad benefit of peers.
- BTPs are leading the fixed income complex with upside in excess of a point, Bunds are similarly bid though to a lesser extent
- USTs move in tandem with EGBs with yields lower as such in wake of Fed's Brainard, who backed the FOMC downshifting to a lower increment of rate hikes in December.
- Crude benchmarks are pressured with the overarching COVID headwind weighing on the demand side and overshadowing any potential upside from the USD & G20.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, Speeches from Fed's Harker, Cook, Barr, ECB's Villeroy, Elderson.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed following a weak lead from Wall Street (S&P 500 -0.9%) with newsflow also quiet overnight
- Chinese Retail Oct Sales contracted Y/Y, whilst Industrial Output missed expectations; Japanese Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted
- DXY traded on either side of 107.00, EUR/USD and GBP/USD were flat, AUD was unfazed by RBA minutes, JPY lagged
- European equity futures traded with modest gains throughout the session with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after cash markets closed +0.5%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, Swedish CPIF, German ZEW Survey, US PPI, Speeches from Fed's Harker, Cook, Barr, ECB's Villeroy, Elderson, Supply from UK, Germany, and the EU
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- European bourses are posting mild gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, with participants awaiting the conclusion of the Biden-Xi meeting.
- Stateside, futures are pressured as the recent rally seemingly runs out of steam and also following Fed's Waller pushing back on the post-CPI reaction, ES -0.4%.
- DXY has surpassed the 107.00 mark to the detriment of the traditional havens while the Yuan continues to draw focus.
- A concerted bid has recently been seen in EGBs, perhaps post-Panetta; however, USTs remain softer and attentive to remarks from Waller
- Commodities have been slipping throughout the session, amid the USD's relative resurgence and following renewed COVID controls in Beijing
- Looking ahead, highlights include a speech from ECB's de Guindos, BoC's Macklem, Fed's Williams & a BoE Short-term gilt sale.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed despite the positive lead from the US; Hong Kong outperformed on reports China is looking to support its property sector
- DXY attempted to claw back recently lost ground but remained under 107.00; Yuan outperformed following a much stronger PBoC fixing vs Friday
- Bitcoin declined under USD 16,000 overnight whilst Ethereum fell under USD 1,200 amid contagion fears from the collapse of FTX
- US President Biden and Chinese President Xi are to meet on Monday in Bali, Indonesia, at 09:30GMT/04: 30EST (17:30 local time), according to Bloomberg
- Fed's Waller (Voter) said the recent CPI report is "just one data point and markets are "way out in front"; he looks at potentially hiking 50bps at the next meeting or after
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production, Biden-Xi meeting, Speeches from ECB's Panetta, de Guindos, BoC's Macklem, BoE Short-term gilt sale
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- Major bourses in Europe are mostly firmer following CPI-induced optimism, with added tailwinds from China easing COVID measures; FTSE 100 lags
- DXY tumbles with G10s all firmer against the Buck, whilst the Yuan outperforms in the EM-space
- Crude futures and base metals are extending the gains seen overnight which were sparked by China’s COVID update
- Chinese President Xi will meet with US President Biden, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry
- Looking ahead, highlights include Uni of Michigan Prelim survey, speeches from ECB's de Guindos & Panetta, BoE's Tenreyro, ECB's Lane, US Veteran's Day with Floor Trade on CME closed
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- APAC stocks traded with firm gains as the region followed suit to the post-CPI global stock surge which saw the Nasdaq 100 close higher by 7.5%.
- Chinese stocks were boosted in late trade after China relaxed some of its COVID protocols for close contacts and inbound travel.
- European equity futures were marginally higher with Eurostoxx 50 futures up by 0.9% after the cash market closed with gains of 3.2% yesterday.
- DXY remains at depressed levels following yesterday's aggressive sell-off which saw the index post its largest fall since 2009.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Final), UK GDP (Prelim.), Speeches from ECB's de Guindos & Panetta, BoE's Tenreyro, ECB's Lane, Supply from Italy & UK I/L Syndication, US Veteran's Day with Floor Trade on CME closed.
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- Major European bourses mostly hold a downward bias following weak handovers from Wall Street and then APAC; US futures are flat
- In FX, DXY found a base just above 110.00 before making its way to 111.00; GBP outperforms and the EUR lags
- Fed’s Kashkari said any talk of a pivot is premature and added that they will do what is needed to bring inflation back down
- FTX is seeking emergency funding to meet withdrawal requests and without funding would result in bankruptcy, according to Bloomberg
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, IJC, Speeches from Fed's Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester, George & Williams, BoE's Tenreyro, ECB's Schnabel, SNB's Maechler, Supply from the US
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- APAC stocks traded negatively as the region followed suit to the losses stateside which were prompted by crypto concerns and a stronger USD.
- European equity futures were subdued with Eurostoxx 50 futures lower by 0.6% after the cash market closed down 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY is softer but on a 110 handle, EUR/USD trades above parity, Cable lingers around 1.14.
- Binance walked away from the FTX deal due to diligence and reports on the mishandling of FTX customer funds.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, IJC, Speeches from Fed's Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester, George & Williams, BoE's Tenreyro, ECB's de Cos, Schnabel, SNB's Maechler, Supply from UK & US.
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- Major bourses in Europe hold a downside bias after seeing some choppiness at the cash open and following a mixed APAC handover; US futures are also softer
- US Midterm Elections are mostly as expected so far with GOP's leading the House while the Senate is seen as a toss-up; there was very little market reaction in response to the mid-terms overnight
- DXY attempts to nurse some recent losses and trades on either side of 110.00 whilst the GBP and NZD underperform
- Crypto markets remain on the backfoot; Bitcoin briefly dipped under yesterday's low and Ethereum fell under USD 1,200
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Midterm Election Results, Speeches from Fed's Barkin, ECB's Elderson, BoE's Haskel, Supply from US
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- US Midterm Elections are mostly as expected so far with GOP's leading the House while the Senate is seen as a toss-up.
- There has been very little market reaction in response to the mid-terms with the Dollar, US indices and T-notes all contained.
- European equity futures were subdued with Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed up 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY is marginally firmer vs. peers, EUR/USD is contained above parity, Cable ran out of steam ahead of 1.16.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Midterm Election Results, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Barkin, ECB's Elderson, BoE's Haskel, Supply from UK, Germany, & US.
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- Major bourses in Europe portray a mixed picture with no clear conviction seen heading into the US mid-term elections, US equity futures post mild gains but with price action contained
- DXY gleaned some traction across the board amidst a firmer rebound in Treasury yields, renewed weakness in the Yuan and general consolidation ahead of impending risk events
- US Treasuries were first off the block in terms of paring more losses from worst levels to turn marginally positive, Gilts followed suit, Bunds remain depressed
- WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday as DXY picked up overnight and in early European trade, whilst China’s COVID woes remain a grey cloud for the complex, with daily new cases in China rising to a six-month high for Sunday
- Bitcoin was pressured and slipped below the USD 20,000 level, with headwinds also as FTX Token sold off overnight
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Midterms, supply from US
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- APAC stocks were mixed as the region only partially sustained the early momentum seen following the positive handover from Wall St.
- European equity futures are contained with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.6% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch firmer and on a 110 handle, EUR/USD lingers around parity, Cable is back below 1.15.
- UK PM Sunak is expected to increase pensions and benefits in line with inflation, according to The Times.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Retail Sales, US Midterms, Speeches from BoE's Pill, Fed's Williams, ECB's Nagel & SNB's Jordan, Supply from Germany, US & UK (syndication).
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- Major bourses in Europe kicked off the session with mild losses across the board, but have since moved firmly into the green amid China-COVID focus
- Amidst this, the DXY has faded significantly from an initial rebound to 111.28 highs; currently, holding around 110.30 to the mixed benefit of peers
- Core counterparts have spent the morning under pressure amid the increasingly constructive risk tone; however, this has eased and USTs are now essentially unchanged.
- WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend.
- AAPL has trimmed its iPhone output forecast amid cooling demand, via BBG, while Foxconn restrictions impact 14 Pro/Max assembly
- Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Barkin, Mester & Collins, UK QT (medium-term).
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- APAC stocks mostly gained as investors continued to pile on the reopening bets despite China 'unswervingly' maintaining its COVID approach, while the region also shrugged off disappointing Chinese trade data
- DXY began with early gains and rose back above 111.00 amid the initial risk aversion; G10s were lower and Antipodeans underperformed
- China’s health commission spokesman said China will not waver in preventing a COVID rebound and in the dynamic clearing of cases as soon as they emerge, while it did not make adjustments to anti-COVID protocols
- Apple (AAPL) trimmed its new iPhone output forecast by 3mln units as demand cools, according to Bloomberg
- UK Chancellor is set to outline GBP 60bln in tax and spending cuts with early drafts of the autumn statement, according to The Guardian.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production, EZ Sentix, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Barkin, Mester & Collins, UK QT
- US clocks moved back 1 hour to Standard Time with the difference between London & New York back to 5 hours
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- European bourses are firmer across the board as the complex benefits from further rumours around an easing of China's COVID policy, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%
- Stateside, futures are firmer across the board with magnitudes a touch more contained vs Europe pre-NFP
- DXY has pulled back from overnight peaks, where it tested but failed to attain 113.00, Antipodeans & Yuan outperform
- Core fixed benchmarks are little changed overall with USTs essentially flat while Gilts lag post-Pill
- Commodities are bolstered amid the USD's pullback and on further reopening rumours re. China
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Speech from Fed's Collins.
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- APAC stocks were mixed with Chinese stocks rallying on unverified reopening rumours, although the rest of the region was contained
- DXY retreated beneath the 113.00 level, EUR/USD rebounded as the dollar eased overnight, USD/JPY was choppy around 148.00
- US audit inspectors finished on-site China work ahead of schedule, according to Bloomberg
- UK Chancellor Hunt is mulling an increase in the headline rate of Capital Gains Tax, according to The Telegraph.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Composite/Services PMI (Final), US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Speeches from Fed's Collins, ECB's Lagarde & de Guindos, Earnings from Intesa Sanpaolo, SocGen & Telefonica
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- European bourses are subdued across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, as the post-Powell pressure reverberates across from APAC trade.
- Stateside, futures are lower across the board though only marginally so with a busy session ahead incl. BoE and ISM Services PMI; ES -0.3%, NQ -0.3%.
- USD continues to rise to the detriment of peers across the board following the FOMC/Powell-presser; DXY to a 112.98 peak from a 111.81 base.
- NOK has been impaired by an as-guided but sub-market pricing 25bp hike from the Norges Bank
- Core fixed benchmarks under pressure across the board as yields continue to extend, particularly at the short-end of the UST curve.
- Commodities are under broad pressure given the continued post-FOMC advances in the USD, crude benchmarks lower by over USD 1.00/bbl.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Composite/Services PMI (Final), Factory Orders & ISM Services, BoE Policy Announcement, Speeches from BoE's Bailey & Mann.
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- US stocks ultimately suffered notable losses after markets saw a dovish reaction to the Fed statement but a hawkish one during Powell’s presser
- FOMC hiked rates by 75bps as expected and noted the Fed will take into account "the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments"
- Fed Chair Powell during the presser suggested they still have some ways to go and data suggests the ultimate level of rates will be higher than previously expected
- APAC stocks were mostly lower; US equity futures eked mild gains overnight but with the recovery insignificant compared to the sell-off triggered by Fed Chair Powell
- Overnight, DXY retreated beneath the 112.00 level following the tumultuous post-FOMC fluctuations, 10yr UST futures were stuck around the prior day’s lows
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, EZ Unemployment, US IJC, Composite/Services PMI (Final), Factory Orders & ISM Services, Norges Bank & BoE Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE's Bailey & Mann, ECB's Lagarde, de Cos, Panetta & Elderson, Supply from Spain & France
- Earnings from Rolls-Royce, Sainsbury's, ING, BNP, Stellantis, Euronext, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, PayPal & Moderna
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- European bourses are mixed as the initial positive bias faded amid downward PMI revisions and increasing geopolitical tensions
- US futures similarly contained and less reactive to the above factors pre-FOMC
- DXY under modest pressure to the benefit of G10 peers with antipodeans and JPY outpacing, EGBs/USTs contained with a slight negative bias
- Crude benchmarks have given up their USD and China induced APAC upside amid downbeat commentary from Maersk and the EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs.
- North Korea has reportedly fired at least 23 missiles in total from the east and west coasts on Wednesday
- Ags in focus amid two-way commentary from Russian and Turkish officials
- Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Services & Composite PMI (Final), FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference.
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- APAC stocks were mixed with the region cautious after the lacklustre handover from the US ahead of the FOMC
- DXY slightly softened after the choppy performance yesterday, EUR/USD traded marginally higher, USD/JPY retreated overnight
- North Korea reportedly fired at least 10 missiles from the east and west coasts; South Korea launched air-to-ground missiles which were fired towards the north of the maritime border
- China locked down the area around the world's largest iPhone factory, according to Bloomberg
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Unemployment, EZ Manufacturing PMI (Final), Australian Services & Composite PMI (Final), FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Germany Supply, earnings from GSK, Maersk, Osram, Vestas Wind & Qualcomm
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- European bourses are firmer across the board with commodity stocks leading the way on the overnight China COVID rumours.
- Stateside, futures are similarly supported though magnitudes a touch more contained ES +0.8%; NQ outperforms as global yields pullback.
- Unconfirmed reports that a Chinese committee is being formed to assess how to exit COVID Zero; however, this was subject to push back
- USD pressured as risk rebounds and yields retreat, with new month and pre-FOMC positioning also potentially impacting; DXY sub-111.00.
- Core and periphery fixed benchmarks are bid with Gilts currently leading amid the latest fiscal musings and as we look to the BoE's QT starting in the short-end
- Commodities are lifted across the board in wake of the China COVID-related updates; crude complex remains attentive to ADIPEC
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, Earnings from Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Uber & AMD.
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- APAC stocks traded firmer as risk appetite improved following a decline on Wall Street; ES +0.6%
- DXY softened amid the improved risk appetite and as yields took a breather from recent gains, G10s were firmer across the board
- AUD/USD pared some of its gains after the RBA stuck to a 25bps hike and refrained from any major hawkish surprises
- China’s Zhengzhou region said that the city will lift the temporary control for COVID-19 low-risk regions and gradually resume normal life, according to Global Times
- UK PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt said it is inevitable that Britons will pay more tax, and reportedly ruled out increasing income tax, National Insurance, and VAT, according to The Telegraph and Bloomberg
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK & US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, Earnings from BP, Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Uber & AMD
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- European bourses began the week modestly firmer, though this proved shortlived and the complex has pivoted to being mixed overall in-fitting with the APAC handover
- Stateside, futures are under more pressure, ES -0.5% as yields pickup a touch, NQ -0.7% lags slightly as such
- USD is bolstered by the general risk tone, Yuan pressure post-PMIs and the latest piece from WSJ's Timiraos; DXY to a 111.20+ peak
- Core fixed benchmarks pressured with yields extending as we enter a week dominated by Central Bank activity
- Commodities under pressure amid the USD pickup and weak Chinese PMIs alongside COVID woes
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI & a speech from ECB’s Lane.
- UK clocks changed from BST to GMT on Sunday, October 30th. As such, the time gap between London and New York is four hours until US clocks change on Sunday, November 6th.
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- European bourses are under modest pressure as sentiment broadly takes a slight turn for the worst amid limited newsflow as participants look to Friday's NFP.
- USD benefits from the mentioned risk tone, with the DXY extending to a 111.35 peak to the modest detriment of peers; though EUR is relatively resilient.
- Gilts are once again the standout laggard following rating agency action and the BoE DMP showing inflation pressures were already elevated MM before the fiscal update.
- Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer at present, extending marginally above yesterday’s best levels with fresh newsflow limited as participants digest yesterday’s OPEC+ action.
- Softer sentiment has led strength to the USD, to the detriment of metals with spot gold once again capped by the 50-DMA at USD 1722/oz.
- The EU has approved the 8th round of Russian sanctions, as expected. While N. Korea fired missiles and bombers/jets have been seen.
- Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed's Waller, Evans, Cook & Mester.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed following a lacklustre lead from the US where the major indices paused their two-day rally.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.1% yesterday.
- DXY lingers just below 111.00, EUR/USD has reclaimed 0.99 status, Cable is back on a 1.13 handle, Antipodeans lead the majors.
- Crude was uneventful overnight but held on to the gains from the OPEC+ 2mln BPD output reduction.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK Construction PMI, EZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed's Waller, Evans, Cook & Mester, Supply from France & Spain.
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- European bourses are under pressure following the strong gains seen in Tuesday's session with fresh newsflow fairly limited heading into key US data, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%.
- Stateside, ahead of those metrics which will be eyed for further clues around a 'pivot', futures are under similar pressure
- USD has benefited from a rebound in yields and perhaps on phycological/technical grounds, DXY nearing 111.00 to the detriment of peers
- Core debt is pressured across the board with Gilts lagging despite upside from a well-received DMO outing; US yields firmer, though curve is slightly mixed
- Crude benchmarks are currently dictated by broader risk and are modestly softer as such, though attention will turn to the OPEC gathering shortly
- Consensus heading into OPEC is that there will be a sizeable production cut announced, the magnitude of which is unknown but source updates are becoming increasingly skewed towards the top-end of a 0.5-2.0mln range.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Final PMIs, US ISM Services, ADP, OPEC, speech from Fed's Bostic.
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- APAC stocks traded higher across the board as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St where major indices extended their rally (SPX +3.06%, NDX +3.14%).
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 4.3% yesterday.
- DXY attempted to nurse some of its recent losses, cable and EUR/USD stalled just ahead of 1.15 and parity respectively.
- The US is reportedly pushing OPEC+ nations not to proceed with an output cut, arguing that economic fundamentals do not support an output cut.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Final PMIs, US ISM Services, ADP, OPEC, Speeches from Fed's Bostic & UK PM Truss, Supply from UK & Germany.
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- European bourses have commenced the session on the front foot as broader sentiment remains constructive largely in a continuation of yesterday's recovery.
- Stateside performance is very in-fitting, ES +1.5%, ahead of Fed speak and after a constructive update from Foxconn.
- USD continues to pullback to the broad benefit of peers, DXY sub-111.00 at worst while Cable reclaims 1.14
- Core debt is bid across the board, though has since dipped from best levels, with Gilts back above 100.00 but still multiple points shy of pre-Kwarteng levels.
- Crude benchmarks are modestly bid this morning, taking the lead from broader sentiment and associated FX action awaiting OPEC+
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders Speeches from Fed's Williams, Logan, Daly, Mester & Jefferson, ECB's Lagarde, UK Chancellor Kwarteng.
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- APAC stocks notched firm gains as the region took impetus from the strong performance on Wall St (SPX +2.59%, NDX +2.36%).
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% yesterday.
- The RBA slowed down the pace of rate hikes with a surprise 25bps increase instead of the expected 50bps move.
- DXY remains sub-112, AUD lags post-RBA, cable sits on a 1.13 handle and USD/JPY remains below 145.
- North Korea fired a missile which flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders Speeches from Fed's Williams, Logan, Daly, Mester & Jefferson, ECB's Lagarde, UK Chancellor Kwarteng, Supply from UK & Germany
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- European equities have kicked the week off on the backfoot following the selling pressure seen on Wall Street on Friday whilst the APAC session saw holiday-thinned conditions
- US futures are more of a mixed bag with the tech-laden NQ incrementally lagging peers.
- Cable lifted to a 1.1279 best sending DXY below 112.00; however, this action has since eased with peers heavily mixed vs. USD
- Core benchmarks lifted markedly alongside the commencement of Gilt trade following the gov't u-turn, upside which has since eased
- Crude benchmarks bid on weekend/early-morning reporting around the potential OPEC+ cut magnitude
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, George & Williams, BoE’s Mann & UK Chancellor Kwarteng.
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region failed to shrug off the negative mood following last Friday’s losses on Wall St.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.2% on Friday.
- DXY has reclaimed 112, GBP lags G10 FX and hovers just below 1.11, antipodeans lead the majors.
- OPEC+ sources on Sunday said the group may opt for cuts over 1mln BPD. Energy Intel suggests as much as 1.5mln is under consideration.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, George & Williams, BoE’s Mann & UK Chancellor Kwarteng.
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- European equities are attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s downside on quarter and month end; US futures similarly bid
- GBP's revival has continued ahead of a meeting between PM Truss and the OBR, with a statement expected
- A move that has taken Cable above 1.12 but shy of mini-Budget levels; DXY sub-112.00 at worst, though still firmer overall.
- Debt Benchmarks bid but modestly off best levels with Bunds leading the charge, but well within recent ranges, amid potential month/quarter-end influence.
- EZ assets largely unreactive to HICP Flash YY hitting a record high 10.0% for September
- Commodities broadly benefiting from the relative USD move, participants attentive to the EU Energy Meeting & Russian President Putin
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Russian President Putin, Moody's on Italy, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Brainard, ECB's Elderson & Schnabel, EU Energy Meeting & Russian President Putin
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower after the negative performance across global peers (SPX -2.11%, NDX -2.86%).
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future unch. after the cash market closed down 1.7% yesterday.
- DXY reclaimed 112 to the upside, EUR/USD maintained 0.98 status, whilst cable extended recovery gains to breach 1.12 at one stage.
- EU senior diplomat said EU countries are nowhere near a consensus on a gas price cap.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ CPI (Flash), Unemployment, US PCE Price Index, Russian President Putin, Moody's on Italy, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Brainard, ECB's Elderson & Schnabel.
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- European stocks are experiencing another bleak session thus far as the overnight gains in futures dissipated heading into the cash open.
- USD has regained some poise after a mid-week pullback; though, the DXY remains off earlier 113.79 highs
- Yuan has derived pronounced support from Reuters reports that China's state banks have been told to stock up for intervention offshore
- UK PM Truss stuck to the Chancellor's mini-Budget, saying it is the correct plan.
- Core debt benchmarks are pressured across the board in a modest pullback of the pronounced BoE-induced 'recovery' seen yesterday
- WTI and Brent front-month futures have been trimming losses throughout the European morning; LME metals buoyed by BBG sources
- Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), US PCE Prices Final, IJC, Banxico Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB's Lane & de Cos, BoEs Ramsden, Pill, Tenreyro, Fed's Bullard & Mester.
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- APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the rally on Wall St (SPX +1.91%).
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed up 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY reclaimed 113 status with majors broadly softer vs. the greenback, GBP lags after Cable encountered resistance around 1.09.
- 10yr UST futures eased from this week’s highs as yesterday’s Gilt-driven rally faded.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Economic Sentiment, German HICP (Prelim.), US PCE Prices Final, IJC, Banxico Policy Announcement Speeches from ECB's Panetta, de Guindos, Elderson, Lane & de Cos, BoEs Ramsden, Fed's Bullard & Mester, Supply from Italy.
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- BoE is to undertake temporary Gilt purchases and is pushing back the commencement of QT to restore orderly conditions.
- Initial debt pressure has given way to pronounced and increasing upside following the BoE's statement, Gilts +350ticks, Cable whipsawed but ultimately settled near pre-release.
- European bourses remain softer on the session, with sectors still defensive; though, this pressure has waned in wake of BoE action.
- Crude benchmarks gradually recovering as geopolitical tensions continue to simmer, EU meetings occur and as we look towards next week's OPEC+.
- DXY printed a fresh YTD peak at 114.78, to the broad detriment of peers (ex-CHF & JPY initially); though, has been easing from this peak since.
- Yuan buoyed by PBoC remarks against one-way bets vs the Yuan.
- Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from Fed's Daly, Bostic, Bullard, Bowman & Barkin, ECB's Elderson, BoE's Dhingra, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were lower across the board following the renewed bond selling on Wall Street.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.2% after the cash market closed down 0.4% yesterday.
- DXY has extended gains above 114.00, antipodeans lag majors, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are on 0.95 and 1.06 handles respectively.
- 10yr UST futures remained subdued after the prior day’s renewed selling with the 10yr yield briefly breaching 4.0%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, Speeches from Fed's Daly, Bostic, Bullard, Bowman & Barkin, ECB's Lagarde & Elderson, BoE's Cunliffe & Dhingra, Supply from the US.
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- European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, as the complex wanes from best levels ahead of a packed Central Bank agenda.
- DXY has eased from newly formed peaks as yields ease from highs and broader sentiment stages a modest recovery.
- GBP and Gilts have reclaimed some composure following recent pronounced pressure, all eyes on BoE's Pill.
- Stateside, USTs are holding firm and similarly at the top-end of ranges ahead of numerous Fed officials and 5yr issuance.
- Crude benchmarks have been meandering higher throughout the session, after yesterday's lower settlement.
- Focus on Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipeline damage, cause unknown, and fresh reporting around a potential EU price cap.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bullard, & Kashkari, ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos, & Panetta, BoE's Pill, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mostly higher in which the majority of indices shrugged off the negative lead from Wall St (-1.02%).
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed down 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY pulled back from recent highs, Cable has recovered to a 1.07 handle, NZD leads FX majors.
- BoE said it is monitoring developments in financial markets very closely and it will not hesitate to change rates as much as necessary.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ M3, US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bullard, Evans & Kashkari, ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos, & Panetta, BoE's Pill, Supply from Netherlands, Italy, UK, Germany & US.
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- European bourses are softer after a mixed cash open and despite a brief foray higher, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, as sentiment remains subdued amid recession/inflation concerns.
- Stateside, futures are lower across the board in-fitting with peers going into a week of Fed speak and inflation data.
- DXY climbed to a fresh YTD high of 114.58 before paring modestly, but remaining firmer, as GBP in particular lifts off worst levels.
- Cable succumbed to a flash crash overnight, with GBP/USD hitting an all-time-low around 1.0350; FX peers hit by broader USD strength
- Gilts have retained some composure after slumping over 200ticks at the commencement of trade; EGBs/USTs downbeat in sympathy
- WTI and Brent November futures remain subdued in early European trade following last week’s recession-induced losses.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Speeches from Fed’s Collins, Bostic & Mester, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Tenreyro, BoJ’s Kuroda & Amamiya, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly negative in a resumption of last week's global stock rout.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.7% after the cash market closed down 2.3% on Friday.
- GBP/USD suffered a flash crash to 1.0327, DXY breached 114 to the upside, Italian election had little sway on EUR.
- Italy is on course to appoint a right-wing government led by the Brothers of Italy party; Meloni claimed leadership of the next government.
- Crude traded lower with an early attempt to nurse losses thwarted by resistance at USD 80/bbl for WTI.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, Speeches from Fed’s Collins, Bostic & Mester, ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos & Panetta, BoE’s Tenreyro, BoJ’s Kuroda & Amamiya, Supply from the EU & US.
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- European bourses are pressured across the board after the Flash PMI releases for the region indicate a contraction & resurgence in price pressures; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%
- Stateside, futures are lower in sympathy and continuing APAC performance awaiting their own PMI metrics and Fed commentary
- Gilts decimated to sub-99.00 from the 102.30 region in wake of the mini-Budget and accompanying fund consideration and potential inflationary implications
- DXY surging to a fresh 112.3+ peak to the detriment of peers across the board, GBP pressure exacerbated post-Kwarteng
- Crude benchmarks are pressured by pronounced USD strength and risk action amid recessionary fears; awaiting potential weekend updates
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs and a speech from Fed Chair Powell.
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- APAC stocks were negative in the aftermath of the rush of global central bank rate hikes; Nikkei 225 was closed due to a public holiday
- DXY marginally gained but with price action contained after the headwinds yesterday, EUR/USD remained firmly below the 0.9900 handle, USD/JPY retested 142.00 to the downside
- Chinese Senior Diplomat Wang Yi said US-China ties are at a low ebb; G7 Foreign Ministers' statement noted there is no change in G7 policy positions on Taiwan
- Referendums on Russian annexation begin in occupied Ukrainian territory, according to AFP News Agency
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, UK Mini-Budget & Speech from Fed Chair Powell
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- Equities in Europe trade mostly lower but off worst levels; US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark
- USD/JPY slumped as Japan announced FX market intervention via USD-selling and JPY-buying; DXY retreated from a 111.81 peak as a result
- Debt futures have witnessed some choppy price action at the sidelines, with the longer end of the curve outperforming
- Russian Deputy Chair of Security Council Medvedev said Russian weapons including nuclear can be used to defend territories in Russia
- Looking ahead, BoE, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE's Haskel, Tenreyro & ECB's Schnabel
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- US stocks closed with losses and the S&P 500 fell beneath 3800 after the FOMC; APAC traded mostly lower
- Fed hiked FFR by 75bps to 3.00-3.25% as expected in a unanimous decision; Fed dot plots saw the terminal rate forecast hiked to 4.6% from 3.8%
- Fed Chair Powell in his Q&A largely reiterated the rhetoric from Jackson Hole, but he said it is likely that rates will get to levels in the dot plot
- In FX, DXY rose to 111.79 overnight and USD/JPY whipsawed after the BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged and maintained a dovish stance
- Looking ahead, highlights include the policy announcements from the BoE, SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT & SARB, Speeches from BoE's Tenreyro & ECB's Schnabel
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- Stocks in Europe have clambered off worst levels with the region now trading mixed on the eve of the FOMC following the initial Russian-induced downside
- US equity futures are modestly firmer, but near the unchanged mark overall
- USD bid on risk-aversion pre-FOMC, though the DXY has since eased from the fresh YTD high at 110.87
- The concerted initial bid for core benchmarks has waned with yields subdued
- Crude propped up by the Russian rhetoric and relatively resilient to the paring of initial moves elsewhere
- Specifically, Russian President Putin declared a partial mobilisation and used "nuclear" language in a threat to the west
- Looking ahead, highlights include the FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference
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- US stocks closed with losses amid broad risk aversion on the eve of the FOMC; APAC stocks traded lower
- In FX, DXY was quiet but held onto recent gains, EUR/USD was subdued, USD/JPY was rangebound
- 10yr UST futures were lacklustre amid pre-FOMC positioning, Bund futures languished near the prior day's lows
- Russian President Putin is expected to speak at 07:00BST/02:00EDT to announce the annexation of around 15% of Ukrainian land
- Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Policy Announcement/Press Conference, Speech from ECB's de Guindos, Supply from Germany
- Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
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- Bourses across Europe have been dipping with sentiment initially sullied by a marked and unexpected acceleration in German PPI
- US equity futures have slipped into negative territory, but the breadth of the market remains shallow as the clock ticks down to the FOMC tomorrow
- DXY remains towards the top of today's intraday band but under the 110.00 mark, JPY failed to gain impetus from hotter-than-expected Japanese CPI
- Debt futures continue to plunge amidst fleeting bouts of consolidation and lame rebounds; US 10yr yield topped 3.55%
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, ECB's Lagarde, and US 20yr Supply
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- APAC followed suit, but gains were capped ahead of risk events
- DXY lacked direction after a pullback from 110.00, EUR/USD remained above parity, USD/JPY traded rangebound, and Antipodeans were lacklustre
- 10yr UST futures marginally gained, Bund futures were subdued, and 10yr JGB futures traded indecisively
- Japanese CPI topped forecasts and remained above the BoJ’s target, whilst China’s PBoC maintained its LPRs and set a stronger CNY fix for the 19th day
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, Riksbank Policy Announcement, Speech from ECB's Lagarde and US 20yr Supply.
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- The subdued tone seen across a holiday-thinned APAC session reverberated into Europe; US futures are softer
- The Dollar regrouped and regained a bid on a combination of technical and positional factors; DXY topped 110.00 but remains shy of Friday's best
- Bonds have extended to the downside, WTI and Brent futures have resumed the sell-off, and crypto markets remain pressured
- US President Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion
- Looking ahead, highlights include UN General Assembly and UK Bank Holiday.
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- Euro-bourses see the deepest losses whilst the FTSE 100 is cushioned by the slide in the Pound
- GBP extended losses in wake of significantly weaker than forecast ONS retail sales data, with Cable sliding to the lowest level since 1985
- 10yr T-note is almost flat ahead of preliminary Michigan sentiment which will be watched closely for inflation expectations
- China will impose sanctions on CEO of Raytheon Technologies (RTX) and CEO of Boeing (BA) Defense, Space & Security
- Looking ahead, highlights include US University of Michigan Prelim., Quad Witching
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- APAC stocks fell despite better-than-expected Chinese activity data as the region took its cue from the losses in the US.
- Chinese IP and Retail Sales exceeded expectations. NBS said the economy continued a recovery trend in August.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.8% after the cash market closed down by 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY was choppy on a 109 handle, EUR/USD continued to move above and below parity, GBP/USD is firmly below 1.15.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, EU Final CPI, US University of Michigan Prelim., Quad Witching, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde & Villeroy.
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- European bourses modestly extended on the gains seen at the open despite a lack of fresh fundamental; US equity futures trade sideways
- DXY has been waning off its 109.92 best towards 109.50, but the Buck extended gains against some EM currencies
- Choppy price action seen in the fixed income and crude complexes; spot gold eyes multi-year lows
- White House said the tentative railway labour agreement reached is an important win for the economy; union needs to ratify deal
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Philly Fed, US Retail Sales, SCO Summit
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- APAC stocks mostly traded with mild gains after the slight reprieve on Wall Street (SPX +0.34%, NDX +0.84%).
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.5% yesterday.
- DXY remains on a 109 handle, EUR/USD is unable to reclaim parity and USD/JPY retraced some of its weakness.
- In commodities, crude was little changed, copper was marginally firmer and gold lacklustre.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Philly Fed, US Retail Sales, Speech from ECB's de Guindos, SCO Summit, Supply from Spain & France.
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- European bourses trade mostly lower but off worst levels, but the sentiment remains dampened; US futures are modestly firmer
- JPY is in focus and stands as the outperformer amid overnight reports of a rate check conducted by the BoJ; DXY is pressured
- Gilts and the 10 year T-note have also bounced from deeper intraday lows in consolidative trade, Germany saw a strong 2044 auction
- WTI and Brent are relatively contained, spot gold holds onto 1,700/oz, base metals are flat
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, New Zealand GDP, ECB's Lane and Villeroy
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- APAC stocks declined following the CPI-inspired bloodbath on Wall St where the S&P 500 had its worst day since June 2020.
- DXY is a touch softer but on a 109 handle, JPY leads G10 FX amid intervention speculation, EUR/USD lingers below parity.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.7% after the cash market closed down by 1.6% yesterday.
- Crude weakened overnight in the aftermath of bearish inventory data and recent dollar strength.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK inflation, US PPI, New Zealand GDP, Speeches from European Commission State of Union Address & ECB's Lane.
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- APAC stocks mostly lacked firm direction despite a soft lead from the US after sentiment was dented by the Gazprom NS1 announcement on Friday.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -3.1% after the cash market closed up by 2.5% on Friday.
- DXY is on a firm footing and a 110 handle, EUR/USD has breached 0.99 to the downside, cable is soft ahead of UK PM announcement.
- Russia doesn’t currently support an oil output cut and OPEC+ is likely to keep its output steady when it meets Monday, according to WSJ.
- Looking ahead, highlights include, EZ & UK Composite/Services PMIs (Final), UK Tory Leadership Announcement, OPEC+ Meeting, Speech from BoE’s Mann. US markets closed for Labor Day.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board as hawkish yield action in the EZ has eased from yesterday's recent peaks, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%.
- Stateside, futures are contained and flat with all focus on the NFP report.
- DXY continues to pullback from its approach of 110.00, now around 109.10 to the benefit of peers ex-JPY
- Comparably contained session overall thus far though Bunds are holding at the lower end of a 85 tick range in limited newsflow pre-NFP; USTs Unch.
- WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are firmer on the day amid a softer Dollar and narrowing prospects of an imminent Iranian Nuclear deal.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP & Factory Orders.
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- APAC stocks were indecisive with price action relatively rangebound after the mixed lead from the US
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.2% after the cash market closed down by -1.7% yesterday
- DXY has pulled back from a test of 110 to the upside, USD/JPY has breached 140 and EUR/USD is back below parity
- The US said the latest Iran response regarding the nuclear deal is not constructive, according to AFP
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP & Factory Orders, EZ Producer Prices.
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- European bourses are under pressure amid continued hawkish pricing, but off lows as yields ease from highs, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%.
- Stateside, a similar picture to fixed with action in-fitting directionally but steadier in terms of magnitudes ahead of data, ES -07%; NQ -1.1% lags given elevated yields.
- DXY around 109.00 having recovered from fresh lows in wake of Russian-driven Yuan appreciation, peers softer across the board ex-CAD & CHF
- Core benchmarks are under pronounced pressure once more with yields across the board at fresh near-term peaks
- Crude resumes downward price action with focus on potential energy price caps
- Taiwan's Defense Command said it has shot down an unknown civilian drone near Kinmen
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Speech from Fed's Bostic.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly lower following the weak handover from global counterparts and following a surprise contraction in Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.9% after the cash market closed down by 1.3% yesterday.
- DXY is firmer and on a 109 handle, EUR/USD hovers around parity, GBP/USD is sub-1.16 and USD/JPY is at its highest level since 1998.
- US and allies are to set out a plan on Friday to limit the price of Russian oil without increasing global oil prices, according to WSJ.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Manufacturing PMIs, German Retail Sales, Swiss CPI, EZ Unemployment, US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Speech from Fed's Bostic, Supply from Spain, France & UK.
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- Initial upside faded as broader price action took another hawkish turn amid inflation data, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%
- Stateside, futures are mixed around the unchanged mark, ES -0.1%, though are similarly well off best levels with data and Fed speak due.
- DXY bid but shy of YTD peak, EUR lags despite HICP with peers generally under modest pressure ex-AUD
- Core benchmarks experienced a fairly contained start to the session, though this proved to be shortlived and pronounced action occurred on inflation releases; Gilts lag post-ONS
- WTI and Brent futures resumed selling off in tandem with the broader risk-mood, Dutch TTF bid after Tuesday's pressure
- OPEC+ JTC upgrades 2022 oil market surplus forecast by 100k BPD to 900k BPD, via Reuters citing a report
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP, US ADP & Chicago PMI, Speeches from Fed's Mester & Bostic.
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- APAC stocks were mostly negative following the losses across global counterparts which saw losses of around 1% on Wall St.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY hovers around 108.50, AUD leads G10 FX, EUR/USD remains above parity, cable eyes 1.17 to the upside.
- Crude nursed some of its losses after having suffered the largest decline in weeks due to supply-related updates from Iraq.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices & Unemployment, EZ CPI (Flash), Canadian GDP, US ADP & Chicago PMI, Speeches from Fed's Mester & Bostic.
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- European bourses are supported in tandem with pressure in European gas prices, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%; US futures firmer across the board
- DXY under 108.50 to the benefit of peers (ex-CHF) and in particular antipodeans and the EUR, latter aided by gas prices
- EGBs bid as benchmarks recoup from Monday's pressure, USTs in-fitting and looking to Fed's Williams
- WTI and Brent futures have pared back around half of the prior day's gains; Iraq output reportedly unaffected by political unrest
- Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Barkin, ECB's Vasle.
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- APAC stocks were mixed following a soft Wall St. lead heading into month-end; S&P 500 -0.67%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed down by 0.9% yesterday.
- DXY is back below 109.00, price action in G10 FX is largely contained, EUR/USD hovers around parity.
- Fed's Kashkari (2023 voter) said he was happy to see how Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was received.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), EZ Consumer Confidence (Final), US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Barkin, Supply from Italy.
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- European bourses are under pressure amid the weekend's central bank hawkishness, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%; note, FTSE 100 away for a Bank Holiday.
- US futures are similarly subdued, ES -1.0%, in tandem with Europe as specific updates are somewhat limited ahead of a packed week of data.
- DXY neared 109.50 but has since pulled back below the 109.00 mark with peers under pressure across the board and the JPY lagging.
- EGBs slump following weekend Central Bank updates from ECB officials which follow on from and continue the tone of Friday's hawkish sources
- Crude contracts have been choppy on the first trading day of the week, awaiting JCPOA/Nord Stream updates
- Looking ahead, highlights include ECB's Lane & Fed's Brainard, UK Bank Holiday.
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- APAC stocks took their cue from Friday's sell-off on Wall St post-Powell which saw the S&P 500 close lower by 3.4%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.3% after the cash market closed down by 1.9% on Friday.
- DXY printed a fresh YTD peak overnight, hawkish ECB talk was unable to support EUR vs. USD, JPY lags G10 FX.
- ECB’s Kazakhs said the ECB should discuss 50bps and 75bps hikes in September, Villeroy said a "significant" rate hike is needed.
- Looking ahead, today's calendar sees a lack of tier 1 highlights. Note, today is a UK bank holiday.
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- European bourses are currently contained, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, as initial price action eased with catalyst thin pre-Powell
- Stateside, futures are under modest pressure, ES -0.4%, and the NQ -0.6% lags slightly given modest yield upside
- DXY fades initial gains with EUR marginally back above parity and peers generally contained though NZD & JPY lag
- Despite fairly pronounced ranges, around 100 ticks in Bunds, the general tone is tentative with benchmarks within WTD parameters
- Crude benchmarks consolidate; UAE reportedly, via Reuters, supportive of the Saudi crude statement
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Consumption/Income, Jackson Hole, Speech from Fed Chair Powell (15:00BST/10:00ET)
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- APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where stocks eventually ramped up heading into the close (SPX +1.41%, NDX +1.75%)
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday
- DXY is contained on a 108 handle, antipodeans lag G10 FX, EUR/USD remains below parity, cable hovers around 1.18
- EU's Borrell said they have received the US answer to Iran's response and that it is a very reasonable counterproposal.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Consumption/Income, Jackson Hole, UK Ofgem Cap Announcement, Speech from Fed Chair Powell.
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- European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, as an initial pronounced foray higher around the cash open that occurred without driver has dissipated.
- Stateside, futures remain modestly firmer but are similarly off best levels, ES +0.5%, ahead of Jackson Hole beginning today (Powell on Friday).
- DXY remains on a softer fitting from the APAC session, peers broadly benefitting though magnitudes differ; Antipodeans outpace, EUR lags
- Another session of two-way action for core debt, which has ultimately resulted in a pronounced move higher
- Crude benchmarks consolidate, awaiting updates to the Iranian nuclear deal; gold bid on USD downside
- Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB, CBRT & Banxico Minutes, supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall St (S&P 500 +0.3%) but with gains capped as attention remained on the looming Jackson Hole Symposium.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.4% yesterday.
- DXY is softer after the index failed to hold above 109, antipodeans leads G10 FX, EUR/USD hovers around parity.
- It was reported that the US rejected all the additional conditions requested by Iran.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP (Detailed), Ifo, US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB, CBRT & Banxico Minutes, supply from Italy, UK & US.
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- Cautious price action in European hours with fresh drivers limited and the docket sparse ahead of Jackson Hole commencing on Thursday (Powell Friday), Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%
- Stateside, futures are in-fitting both directionally and in terms of magnitude, ES -0.1%.
- DXY has recouped some of Tuesday's pressure, but has failed to make much ground above 108.80; GBP lags while havens outperform
- Initial pronounced EGB pressure briefly abated and brought benchmarks into positive territory; though, this failed to cement itself
- Crude benchmarks continue to grind higher while spot gold is steady and base metals are mixed
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Ukraine Independence Day, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mixed following the lacklustre lead from global counterparts (SPX -0.26%, NDX -0.07%).
- European equity futures are indicative of soft open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY clawed back some data-inspired losses, JPY leads G10 FX, antipodeans marginally lag.
- Fed’s Kashkari suggested the FOMC can only relax on rate hikes when there is compelling evidence that inflation is heading towards 2%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Supply from Germany & US.
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- European bourses have reversed initial pressure following EZ Flash PMIs, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, which were mostly mixed though noted of less intense price pressures.
- Stateside, futures are firmer, ES +0.2%, and have been in-fitting with European peers throughout the morning awaiting their own Flash PMI metrics.
- DXY reversed earlier gains after coming close to the YTD peak at 109.29 before pulling back; EUR/USD tested 0.99 before rebounding.
- Pronounced two-way action on the French and German Flash PMI metrics, resulting in a ~200 tick range for Bunds thus far.
- Crude benchmarks have edged higher while metals are mixed/choppy amid USD price action.
- Iran has reportedly dropped some key nuclear deal demands, though gaps remain, via Reuters citing a US official
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash, US New Home Sales, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower after the negative mood rolled over from global counterparts amid growth and energy-related concerns.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future unchanged after the cash market closed lower by 1.9% yesterday.
- DXY sits on a 109 handle, EUR/USD remains below parity, antipodeans fare slightly better vs. greenback.
- Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ may need to tighten output to stabilise the market.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash, US New Home Sales, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speech from ECB's Panetta, Supply from UK (I/L) & US.
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- European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, amid Nord Stream 1 maintenance.
- US futures are in-fitting both in terms of direction and magnitude, ES -1.3%, amid global recession and inflation fears.
- DXY has extended above Friday's peak as EUR/USD probes parity once as safe havens benefit somewhat from the broader tone
- Action that also saw pronounced initial fixed income upside; however, this has waned as inflation implications draw focus
- European gas prices surge amid unscheduled Nord Stream maintenance while crude benchmarks are subdued
- PBoC undertook asymmetric cuts to its LPRs while ECB's Nagel and RBNZ's Hawkesby provided hawkish commentary
- Looking ahead, highlights include Israel Policy Announcement & US National Activity Index.
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- APAC stocks were mostly lower after last Friday’s declines in stocks and bonds across global markets
- DXY traded rangebound near a monthly high, EUR/USD remained lacklustre, and USD/JPY was kept afloat
- Russia is to shut the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days citing maintenance; China’s Sichuan extended its factory power cuts
- The PBoC cut the 1-Year LPR by 5bps to 3.65% and reduced the 5-Year LPR by 15bps to 4.30% vs expectations for a 10bps cut to both
- ECB’s Nagel said the central bank must keep raising rates even if the risk of a recession increases
- Looking ahead, highlights include the Israel Policy Announcement, Swiss M3, UK CBI Trends & US National Activity Index
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- European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, in a session of limited newsflow with focus on continuing hawkish price action.
- Stateside, given the hawkish action, NQ -1.0% is the incremental underperformer ahead of commentary from 2024 voter Barkin.
- Commodities are under broad pressure given USD strength with crude curtailed as it awaits another JCPOA response.
- Dollar continues to reign as risk sentiment sours again and yields ratchet higher and steeper.
- Looking ahead, highlights include commentary from Fed's Barkin.
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- APAC stocks lacked firm direction despite the mild tailwinds from the US where sentiment was somewhat underpinned by mostly encouraging data.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.6% yesterday.
- DXY has continued to strengthen on a 107 handle, EUR is sub 1.01, GBP/USD hovers around the 1.19 mark.
- Indonesian President Widodo said Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin will attend the G20 summit in Indonesia.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, Speech from Fed's Barkin & Earnings from Deere.
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- APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak handover from global counterparts as markets ramped up hawkish central bank pricing.
- FOMC Minutes noted many officials saw a risk the Fed could tighten more than necessary.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 1.3% yesterday.
- FX markets are relatively contained with the DXY remaining on a 106 handle, EUR/USD capped by resistance at 1.02 and USD/JPY is just above 135.00.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Norges Bank & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from Fed's George, Fed's Kashkari & ECB's Schnabel, supply from France.
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- European bourses have dipped from initial mixed/flat performance and are modestly into negative territory, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%.
- Stateside, futures are under similar pressure awaiting fresh corporate updates (LOW & TGT thus far) and the July FOMC Minutes, ES -0.6%.
- USD bid but off best with Retail Sales and Minutes ahead, GBP pulls back from initial post-CPI gains, JPY hit on differentials
- Debt retracement continues as yields climb while Sonia drops on further hawkish pricing after UK data
- Crude benchmarks little changed overall awaiting JCPOA developments
- Gold is softer as USD is the haven of choice currently, Aluminium outperforms at Slovalco to close amid elevated energy costs
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Minutes, Supply from the US, and Earnings from Cisco.
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- APAC stocks just about shrugged off the choppy lead from the US where markets were tentative amid mixed data signals and strong retailer earnings.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% yesterday.
- DXY is contained, EUR/USD lost steam ahead of 1.02, NZD is firmer post-RBNZ.
- RBNZ delivered a hawkish 50bps (as expected) rate hike in which it upped its OCR projections and signalled further policy tightening.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ Employment Flash, GDP, US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Minutes, Supply from the US, Earnings from Carlsberg, Uniper, Target & Cisco.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board after a relatively constructive APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, though off best levels post-ZEW.
- US futures are in contained ranges and pivoting the unchanged mark at this point in time, ES -0.2%; HD and WMT in focus.
- DXY has breached last week's peak to the detriment of peers across the board, with EUR downside exacerbating this amid data.
- Core fixed benchmarks have seen a pullback from Monday's best levels while UK and German supply was well received.
- Crude benchmarks pressure, but off worst levels and well within yesterday's ranges, as the EU receives Iran's response to the JCPOA draft.
- Looking ahead, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Industrial Production. Earnings from Walmart.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, albeit growth concerns lingered.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY remained steady around 106.50, EUR/USD held support at 1.0150, G10 FX was overall contained.
- Crude remained subdued following recent soft data releases from the US & China and progress on the Iranian nuclear deal.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment, German ZEW, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Delivery Hero & Pandora.
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- Major bourses in Europe kicked off the session with modest broad-based gains before trimming gains amid a cautious tone; stateside performance more subdued
- Crude benchmarks under pronounced pressure amid constructive Iranian nuclear deal updates; Iran to update before end of session
- DXY has been picking up to the detriment of peers across the board as the tone turns more cautions, Antipodeans lag amid poor China data
- Yuan hit on data and unexpected PBoC action
- Rhine river down to 32cm at Kaub with similar issues reported in China and the Sichuan province to shut industry to ensure power supply
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Speech from Fed’s Waller.
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- APAC stocks were mixed, Chinese data missed expectations whilst the PBoC surprised with 10bps rate cuts to its 1yr MLF rate and 7-day Reverse Repo rate
- DXY failed to sustain the early gains against its major counterparts, EUR/USD remained lacklustre, USD/JPY initially retreated but then pared most of its losses
- 10yr UST futures were steady after last Friday’s curve flattening, Bund futures were uneventful, 10yr JGBs futures eked marginal gains
- Crude prices were subdued; Saudi Aramco’s CEO said they are working to increase production from multiple energy sources
- Bitcoin traded higher and briefly reclaimed the USD 25,000 level, while Ethereum fleetingly rose above USD 2,000
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Speech from Fed’s Waller, and earnings from Hellofresh
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- European bourses are firmer, but action has been relatively contained with newsflow slim, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%; however, benchmarks waned alongside US futures following China ADS updates.
- Currently, ES +0.4% but similarly off best levels amid Chinese stocks announcing intentions to delist their ADSs and reports via BBG that Germany is being looked at as a banking base.
- DXY continues to recover to the modest detriment of peers, though non-US Dollars are relatively resilient.
- Core benchmarks are little changed overall on the session and particularly when compared to price action seen earlier in the week
- WTI and Brent hold an upside bias in Europe amid the broader risk tone, while gold is uneventful and base metals trade mixed
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Import/Export Prices, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.).
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- APAC stocks were mixed following a similar indecisive lead from Wall Street; SPX -0.07%, NDX -0.65%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future Unch. after the cash market closed higher by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY maintains 105 status, NZD leads G10 FX whilst JPY lags, EUR/USD sits on a 1.03 handle.
- Crude marginally softened overnight after Brent and WTI encountered resistance at USD 100/bbl and USD 95/bbl respectively.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, EZ Industrial Production, US Import/Export Prices, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.).
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- European bourses are little changed overall after a modestly firmer open failed to gain much traction with newsflow limited, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%.
- Stateside, performance is very similar though futures are faring incrementally better, ES +0.2% and the NQ +0.4% remains the relative outperformer.
- DXY is back on a softer footing, below 105.00, with peers firmer though magnitudes vary
- Core benchmarks are under modest pressure but remain above the post-CPI trough with action quiet amid a limited schedule and Japanese holiday.
- Crude is extending on Wednesday's performance while spot gold is little change though base metals outperform.
- Fed's Daly: too early to declare victory on inflation, 50bp is her September baseline
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC & PPI, OPEC MOMR, Banxico Policy Announcement, Speech from Fed's Daly, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks took impetus from their global counterparts after softer-than-expected US CPI propelled stocks on Wall St (S&P 500 +2.1%)
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% yesterday
- DXY has clawed back some of its post-CPI losses, EUR/USD is back on a 1.02 handle, JPY lags G10 FX
- Fed's Daly and Kashkari suggested it is too soon to declare victory on inflation
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC & PPI, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, Banxico Policy Announcement, Speech from Fed's Daly, Supply from the US
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- European bourses are mixed and near the unchanged mark overall, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%,, after a softer open following a downbeat APAC/Wall St. handover.
- Stateside, futures have lifted off initial lows but reman in proximity to unchanged levels pre-CPI, ES +0.2%.
- DXY has eased but remains in narrow ranges to the modest benefit of peers; Yuan initially softer on below-exp. Chinese CPI
- A decisive move higher in EGBs/USTs without fresh catalyst or drive, yield curve steeper
- Crude benchmarks are under modest pressure but off worst levels while gold and LME metals are mixed/flat
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Chinese M2, Speeches from BoE's Pill, Fed's Evans & Kashkari, Supply from the US, Earnings from Disney, Fox.
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- APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the weak handover from the US where tech stocks were pressured; SPX -0.40%, NDX -1.15%.
- Chinese inflation metrics fell short of expectations with Y/Y PPI hitting a 17-month low.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 1.0% yesterday.
- G10 FX was rangebound ahead of US CPI, EUR/USD sits on a 1.02 handle, USD/JPY hovers around 135.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, German CPI (Final), Chinese M2, Speeches from BoE's Pill, Fed's Evans & Kashkari, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Disney, Honda, Fox, Aviva, Evonik & E.ON.
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- European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but remain relatively rangebound and lack conviction with catalysts thin.
- Stateside performance has been similar though NQ -0.4% has come under pressure amid a Q4 guidance update from Micron (MU), -5% pre-mkt
- DXY briefly lost 106.00 with modest upside seen in peers across the board
- GBP initially dented on BoE's Ramsden, with associated Gilt and broader debt upside relatively short-lived
- Crude oil futures have drifted off best levels; however, pronounced upside seen most recently on Russia reportedly suspending oil exports via southern-section of the Druzhba pipeline.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EIA STEO, Supply from the US, Earnings from Sysco, Coinbase, Warner Music.
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- APAC stocks eventually traded mostly higher following a tentative lead from the US (S&P 500 -0.1%).
- Taiwan began a live-fire artillery drill simulating defence against an attack by China, according to AFP.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 1.0% yesterday.
- G10 FX is contained with the USD steady, EUR/USD eyeing 1.02 to the upside, and USD/JPY sub-135.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EIA STEO, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board after shrugging off mixed APAC trade, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%.
- Similar directional performance in US futures, though magnitudes are more contained amid limited newsflow with little scheduled ahead, ES +0.3%.
- APAC trade was torn between strong Chinese trade data and hawkish Fed repricing post-NFP
- DXY has pulled back from Friday's peaks to the modest benefit of peers while core Fixed experience similar respite.
- WTI and Brent front-month futures saw upside momentum fade alongside a marginal Dollar-rebound off lows.
- No Tier 1 events are scheduled.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed with price action choppy as participants reflected on encouraging Chinese trade data and hawkish Fed repricing.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.8% on Friday.
- Fed’s Bowman (voter) said the Fed should consider more 75bps rate hikes at coming meetings.
- DXY is contained after Friday's gains, AUD outperforms G10 FX, JPY lags, EUR/USD sits on a 1.01 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Sentix, Earnings from BioNTech, Barrick Gold, Porsche SE & Siemens Energy.
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- European bourses are under modest pressure in wake of China taking countermeasures against "Pelosi's invasion of Taiwan", Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%.
- However, performance is fairly contained overall as we await the key US Labour Market print (newsquawk preview available) before next week's CPI.
- DXY is firmer on the China update with activity currencies pressured and havens deriving modest upside.
- Core debt is relatively steady with a modest flattening bias back in play; OATs in focus ahead of Fitch's review
- Crude benchmarks are under pressure amid the mentioned countermeasures taken by China and also as Taiwan reports no/limited ships/aircraft impact from China drills
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labour Market Reports; BoE's Pill & Fed's Barkin.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly positive but with gains capped amid geopolitical and growth slowdown concerns
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed up 0.6% yesterday
- DXY is firmer but sub-106, EUR/USD stalled near resistance at 1.0250, JPY lags G10 FX and GBP stabilised post-BoE
- RBI hiked the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.40% (exp. hike of 25bps-50bps); further stimulus withdrawal is warranted
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Earnings from Allianz, Deutsche Post, LSE & WPP
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, with the general tone constructive though the FTSE 100 lags pre-BoE amid GBP strength.
- US futures have lifted from initial rangebound action, ES +0.3%, with specific newsflow limited pre-data/Fed speak.
- DXY subdued with peers generally bid though CAD is pressured amid crude consolidation while JPY is the G10 laggard thus far.
- Core consolidation after recent rampant upward move, knife-edge BoE looms; Bund Sep'22 towards mid-point of a +100 tick range.
- Currently, benchmarks are firmer by circa. USD 1.00bbl and towards the top-end of relatively/comparably narrow ranges; JCPOA in focus
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, International Trade & Canadian Trade Balance, BoE Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB's Elderson & Fed's Mester. Earnings from Alibaba, Conoco-Phillips, Amgen.
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- APAC stocks were firmer as the positive momentum rolled over from global peers (S&P 500 +1.56%, NDX +2.73%)
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed up 1.3% yesterday.
- FX markets are relatively contained with the DXY marginally softer, antipodeans outpace peers, GBP steady ahead of BoE.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ & UK Construction PMI, US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, International Trade & Canadian Trade Balance, BoE Policy Announcement, Speeches from ECB's Elderson & Fed's Mester, Supply from Spain & France.
- Earnings from Cigna, Alibaba, Conoco-Phillips, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Glencore, Rolls-Royce, Adidas, Credit Agricole, Bayer, Lufthansa & Telecom Italia.
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- European bourses are mixed but with a modest positive underlying bias emerging as the session progresses ahead of key risk events, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%
- Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.4%, moving directionally with their European peers and eyeing US/China/Taiwan, ISM Services and Fed speak
- For FX, the DXY remains in proximity to the trough of 106.00 with peers modestly bid across the board ex-CHF
- Benchmarks have been moving lower as we head into today's JMMC and OPEC+ events, sources thus far suggest production will be maintained or subject to a small increase
- Core debt reversal and pullback extends with the pace of the initial move increasing on the initial PMIs
- Pelosi has now departed Taiwan and is believed to be heading to S. Korea
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Composite/Services Final PMI, US Factory Orders & ISM Services PMI, OPEC+, Speeches from Fed's Barkin, Harker & Kashkari.
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- APAC stocks were mostly kept afloat following US House Speaker Pelosi’s safe arrival in Taiwan but upside was capped by China's response.
- 21 PLA jets entered Taiwan's ADIZ, while Chinese battery giant CATL is reportedly pausing its North American battery plant announcement.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed down 0.6% yesterday.
- DXY is softer but remains on a 106 handle, JPY is the marginal G10 outperformer, EUR/USD is back below 1.02.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Composite/Services PMI, German Trade Balance, Swiss CPI, EZ Retail Sales, US Factory Orders & ISM Services PMI, OPEC+, Speeches from Fed's Barkin, Harker & Kashkari, Supply from Germany.
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- European bourses are pressured as the general tone remains tentative ahead of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%; note, FTSE 100 -0.1% notably outperforms following earnings from BP +3.0%.
- Stateside, futures are similarly downbeat and have been drifting lower amid the incremental updates to Pelosi and her possible Taiwan arrival time of circa. 14:30BST/09:30ET; ES -1.0%.
- DXY lifts as activity currencies wane on the above risk tone alongside JPY extending its winning streak; AUD slips post 50bp hike
- Core fixed income is underpinned pre-Pelosi and Fed speak while UK issuance was twice over-subscribed
- Going into JTC, FBN source says Saudi will push OPEC+ to increase oil production at Wednesday's gathering
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report, Speeches from Fed's Bullard, Evans & Mester. Earnings from Uniper, PayPal, Gilead, Uber & Starbucks.
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- APAC stocks followed suit to the weak performance across global counterparts as tensions simmered amid Pelosi's potential visit to Taiwan.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed flat yesterday.
- RBA hiked rates by 50bps as expected, provided little in the way of hawkish surprises in the statement and noted it was not on a pre-set path.
- DXY is a touch softer vs. peers, JPY leads G10 FX whilst AUD lags post-RBA.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US NY Fed Household Debt & Credit Report, Speeches from Fed's Bullard, Evans & Mester, Supply from the UK.
- Earnings from Generali, Uniper, Siemens Gamesa Renewable, BP, PayPal, Gilead, Uber & Starbucks.
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- European bourses remain firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, as the region shrugs-off Final Manufacturing PMIs and a mixed APAC handover
- US futures are under pressure in a continuation of downbeat APAC trade amid poor Chinese PMIs and with multiple key risk events looming for the week, ES -0.2%
- DXY continues to slip as activity-currencies climb with RBA due Tuesday and the JPY revival resilient; Yuan hit on respective PMIs
- Core debt consolidates, BTPs outperform and the US yield curve is relatively steady directionally
- Crude benchmarks are pressured in a resumption of Friday's action after modest overnight consolidation as the complex looks towards OPEC+.
- House Speaker Pelosi's official itinerary does not mention Taiwan; however, Reports have mentioned August 2nd and 4th
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Earnings from AXA
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- US equities finished higher on Friday in which stocks rallied to end the week which contributed to the S&P 500's best month since November of 2020
- APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed as momentum from last week’s earnings-inspired euphoria on Wall St was partially offset by disappointing Chinese PMI data
- DXY continued to soften despite the recent suggestions by Fed’s Kashkari that markets have gotten ahead of themselves regarding views for a cut to interest rates next year
- Former UK Chancellor Sunak vowed to lower the basic rate of income tax by 20% by 2029 if he becomes the next UK PM
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, earnings from AXA, and Heineken
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, and are set to post their best monthly performance since Nov'20.
- NQ continues to outperform, +1.2%, amid after-market earnings from AMZN and AAPL
- DXY attempts to recoup from JPY-induced pressure after USD/JPY dropped to 132.50; EUR fades despite hot-CPI and strong GDP data
- Crude is bid while TTF relinquishes EUR 200 mark; Saudi-Russia talks and Lavrov looking into a call with US' Blinken
- Marked pull-back in core debt but still notably bid for the week as a whole with a busy afternoon docket ahead
- US President Biden and China's President Xi discussed face-to-face meeting and directed teams to follow up; did not discuss any potential lifting of US tariffs on Chinese products.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Jun PCE, US Chicago PMI, and Canadian GDP. Earnings from Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, AbbVie, and more.
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- After the bell, US equity futures saw another leg higher as Amazon soared over 13.5% and Apple rose some 3% after earnings.
- APAC stocks traded mixed with China lagging. European equity futures indicate a firmer open.
- In FX, USD/JPY again experienced bouts of selling as it breached key levels, as a result DXY fell under 106.00.
- Senior US admin official said US President Biden and China's President Xi discussed a face-to-face meeting.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Flash GDP and Unemployment, EZ Flash CPI and Flash Q2 GDP, US Jun PCE, US Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP.
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- European bourses are modestly softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.10%, but relatively contained now after fading initial gains from the FOMC-inspired upside
- US futures are relatively stable but continue to post modest losses with the NQ -0.7% lagging amid pre-market downside in Meta post-earnings, -6.0%.
- USD is firmer on the session but pulling back from recent ranges to the modest benefit of peers while JPY extends on potentially reduced policy divergence
- Core debt remains choppy but continues to feature noted curve steepening with 7yr supply ahead
- TTF comparably contained with no new Nord Stream 1 developments thus far while crude is supported on the USD, China & shell CEO
- Looking ahead, highlights include German State CPI, US Q2 GDP Advance, Q2 PCE, US IJC, Biden-Xi call (time TBC), supply from the US.
- Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Intel, and more
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- The FOMC hiked by 75bps to 2.25-2.50%, as expected, taking rates back to neutral for the first time since 2019.
- A dovish reaction was seen across markets with Chair Powell signalling a meeting-by-meeting data-dependant approach going forward.
- US equity futures were subdued overnight as Meta fell 4.7%; Europe is set for a firmer open following Wall Street’s late rally.
- In FX, JPY was the clear outperformer with JPY-pairs breaching psychological levels, whilst DXY was pressured.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German State and National CPIs, US Q2 GDP Advance, Q2 PCE, US IJC, Biden-Xi call, supply from Italy and the US.
- Earnings from Barclays, Anglo American, Nestle, EDF, L'Oréal, Sanofi, EssilorLuxottica, Safran, Amazon, Apple, Intel, and more.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board continuing the MSFT & GOOG driven early APAC action amidst numerous European earnings
- US futures are firmer across the board though the NQ +1.4% outperforms amid those after-market developments though participants are looking to the FOMC
- Dutch TTF Aug’22 is the standout commodity mover, amid a reduction in physical flows through Nord Stream 1; thus far, TTF has printed a high of EUR 228/mWh.
- FX has the USD edging off with Cable nearing 1.21 at best while EUR/USD eyes noted OpEx
- Choppy performance for core debt while BTPs underperformed after S&P's revision
- US President Biden will speak to Chinese President Xi on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, FOMC announcement and Chair Powell's press conference. Earnings: Meta, T-Mobile, Boeing, and more.
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- US equity futures were lifted after the bell as Alphabet’s advertising topped forecasts, whilst Microsoft initially fell on downbeat metrics but reversed course on guidance
- APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following a mostly subdued session. Eurostoxx 50 future is up 0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY took a breather from yesterday's run, EUR/USD posted mild gains, AUD/USD fell on Aussie CPI
- US President Biden will speak to Chinese President Xi on Thursday; Biden has not yet made a decision regarding the removal of Chinese tariffs, according to White House’s Kirby
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment, EZ M3, US Durable Goods, FOMC announcement and Chair Powell's press conference, supply from the UK, and Germany
- Earnings from Airbus, BASF, Deutsche Bank, Equinor, BATS, GSK, Lloyds, Rio Tinto, Credit Suisse, Meta, T-Mobile, Boeing, and more.
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- European bourses and US futures spent much of the morning under modest pressure, with the US in particular fairly rangebound pre-earnings & Wednesday's FOMC.
- However, further pressure has been seen in wake of the most recent Kremlin-related commentary, with the Nord Stream 1 turbine yet to be installed.
- Dutch TTF & Crude benchmarks bid ahead of further Nord Stream 1 curtailments, though, the upside waned as the EU agrees on an emergency energy deal for the winter
- DXY continues to climb amid the above newsflow/narrative, pressuring peers while core debt climbs and US yields flatten modestly.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, the EU's Energy Summit pressers and, supply from the US.
- Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald's, Visa, UPS, LVMH, Michelin, UniCredit, and many more.
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- APAC stocks eventually traded mostly higher; Hang Seng outperformed as Alibaba seeks a primary HK listing.
- DXY declined heading into the Chinese cash open but then trimmed losses, EUR/USD saw resistance at 1.0250.
- Crude futures gained overnight amid a pullback in the Dollar, spot gold was flat and base metals rose.
- Walmart tumbled almost 10% after it issued a profit warning, Amazon fell in sympathy but later announced Prime subscription price hikes in Europe.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, EU's Energy Summit, supply from Italy, and the US.
- Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, McDonald's, General Electric, Visa, UPS, LVMH, Unilever, Michelin, UniCredit, and many more.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board as the initially cautious tone amid soft-Ifo and weekend developments dissipated amid USD-downside and constructive Kremlin remarks
- US futures also modestly bid into the busiest Q2 earnings week and pre-FOMC
- USD is under pressure on the risk tone with EUR underpinned by Kazaks despite Ifo while antipodeans lead the way
- Core debt has seen pronounced two-way action amid the above factors; currently, modestly softer with US yields steeper pre-2yr
- Crude began on the backfoot but has benefited from the Kremlin re. Nord Stream with Ags bid after Odessa strikes
- Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index, US Dallas Fed, and supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly lower; China’s property stocks and bonds rallied on reports of a potential real estate fund.
- DXY initially firmed before pulling back, EUR/USD traded on either side of 1.0200, and the AUD and NZD were the marginal G10 laggards.
- 10yr UST futures and Bund futures consolidated overnight and held onto last Friday's gains whilst APAC bonds played catch-up.
- Crude futures gave up earlier gains, base metals rallied whilst wheat and corn futures were also supported.
- The Ukrainian port of Odesa was hit by a series of Russian missile strikes; EU countries are reportedly attempting to water down the Commission's gas demand plans.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo Survey, UK CBI Trends, US National Activity Index, US Dallas Fed, supply from the US, earnings from Ryanair, Philips, Vodafone, Julius Baer, and NXP Semiconductor.
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- European bourses are resilient despite Flash PMIs for June contracting, while US futures are subdued but rangebound
- DXY climbs amid EUR pressure post-PMIs, with the USD weighing on peers in turn though JPY & CHF benefit from yield action
- Core debt extends on post-ECB recovery rallies amidst this and curves steepen amid a paring of tightening expectations
- Crude benchmarks surrender APAC upside on contraction concerns and remain focused on Nord Stream developments
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, Verizon
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- APAC stocks were mostly higher after the gains in the US but with upside capped by lingering growth concerns.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY has recouped some lost ground, antipodeans lag G10 FX, EUR/USD is back on a 1.01 handle.
- Nord Stream 1 turbine was said to be stuck in transit in Germany due to Russia not giving approval to transport it back.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK & US Flash PMIs, UK Retail Sales, ECB SPF & CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, Verizon, Danske Bank & Swedish Match.
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- European bourses gave up initial upside as Draghi resigns; however, current performance is more mixed with Nord Stream 1 flowing and earnings factoring
- Stateside, futures are directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes more contained thus far awaiting earnings developments.
- DXY has benefitted from JPY downside amid the BoJ while the EUR slipped on Draghi and awaits the ECB.
- Core debt is off lows and somewhat choppy while BTPs slump over 200 ticks
- Commodities are dented with Nord Stream 1 flowing, USD strength and Libya output increasing; spot gold falls further from USD 1.7k/oz
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Policy Announcements from the ECB, CBRT & SARB, Speech from ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from AT&T
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- APAC stocks traded cautiously following the mixed performance of global counterparts and amid risk events.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% yesterday.
- Italian PM Draghi is set to announce his intention to resign at 08:00BST.
- DXY is on the backfoot, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.02 and JPY contained after BoJ stood pat on policy.
- Nord Stream said gas delivery has resumed on Thursday morning. Deliveries are at roughly 40% of capacity.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Policy Announcement from ECB, CBRT & SARB, Speech from ECB's Lagarde, Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from AT&T, Phillip Morris, Roche & Nokia.
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- European bourses are modestly firmer at present as we move towards the week's key risk events and as participants had already reacted to the Nord Stream developments.
- US futures similarly contained before further earnings releases, including Tesla after-hours.
- The USD is pressured though the DXY has marginally reclaimed 106.50 with peers eking marginal upside.
- Core debt continues to climb and BTPs lead the way after Draghi's initial Senate speech; US 20yr due
- Commodities continue to consolidate, with newsflow not changing the narrative and focused on familiar themes thus far
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Supply from the US and Earnings from Abbott & Tesla.
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- APAC stocks followed suit to the gains in the EU and the US where sentiment was underpinned by Nord Stream optimism and a weaker buck.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.2% yesterday.
- DXY was subdued on a 106 handle, antipodeans lead G10 FX amid the constructive mood, GBP and EUR also supported.
- Crude futures plateaued overnight following the prior day's gains with prices capped by bearish inventory data.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, Canadian CPI, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), US Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Abbott & Tesla.
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- European bourses are under modest pressure continuing with the downbeat APAC handover, with pressure from AAPL, ECB sources and IBM impacting.
- US futures are modestly firmer, with key earnings including NFLX ahead; IBM -5% in pre-market
- EUR bid and EGBs dented on Reuters/BBG sources that a 25bp or 50bp rate hike will be discussed at Thursday's ECB
- DXY pressured as such and peers taking advantage, antipodeans lead the way
- Crude benchmarks are pressured and continuing to consolidate, spot gold lifted amid the USD pullback with base metals somewhat mixed
- Punchy rhetoric from China re. US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August
- Looking ahead, highlights include a Speech from BoE's Bailey. Earnings from JNJ, Lockheed & Netflix.
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- APAC stocks mostly fell after reports of Apple slowing hiring and European energy woes stoked growth fears.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% yesterday.
- DXY heads into the European session flat, antipodeans lead G10 FX, EUR/USD is contained after hitting resistance at 1.02.
- Crude futures took a breather from the resurgence spurred by uncertainty regarding Russian gas supply.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment, EZ CPI (Final), Speech from BoE's Bailey, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from JNJ, Lockheed & Netflix.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board in a continuation of and extension on the overnight risk tone, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%.
- US futures are similarly bid, as we await further earnings with key names including Goldman Sachs on the docket.
- DXY is under pressure to the benefit of peers across the board with iron ore and crude assisting AUD and petro-FX respectively
- Crude is lifted alongside the broader risk tone, after the weekend Biden-Saudi meeting
- Core debt is pulling-back given the pick-up in sentiment while BTP-Bund is wide, but steady, at 225bp
- Looking ahead, highlights include earnings from Bank of America, IBM, Goldman Sachs & Charles Schwab.
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- APAC stocks gained with risk appetite spurred after last Friday's firm gains on Wall St.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.4% on Friday.
- DXY sits sub-108, EUR/USD remains north of parity, USD/JPY bounced off support at 138.
- US President Biden's Middle Eastern trip failed to secure any major Saudi commitments.
- Looking ahead, highlights include a speech from BoE’s Saunders, Earnings from Bank of America, IBM, Goldman Sachs & Charles Schwab
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, as initial jittery performance dissipated with participants looking to US data and Fed speak.
- US futures are in the green, but only modestly so, and have been relatively contained awaiting further guidance from upcoming Fed officials on the 75bp/100bp discussion.
- DXY continues to pullback with peers mixed as EUR consolidates and AUD underperforms
- Core debt pulls back from initial peaks though yields remain under pressure after less-hawkish Fed commentary, prompting re-steepening
- Crude benchmarks firmer, but awaiting details from the upcoming Saudi-Biden meeting
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, IP & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), Speech from Fed's Bostic, Bullard & Daly. Earnings from Citi & Wells Fargo.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed after the 100bps Fed rate hike bets unwound; Chinese Q2 GDP missed forecasts but June Retail Sales beat estimates
- DXY was rangebound, EUR/USD was slightly firmer, USD/JPY took a breather from yesterday’s rally, and AUD/USD was softer after the Chinese growth data
- 10yr USTs eked modest gains, Bunds remained elevated, and 10yr JGBs traded flat
- Crude futures were choppy, Spot gold lacked firm direction, and copper declined after the Chinese GDP
- Fed's Waller (voter) said markets got “ahead of themselves” with a 100bps pricing; Bullard (2022 voter) said he still supports a 75bps July move
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, IP & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), Speech from Fed's Bostic & ECB's Rehn, Earnings from UNH, Blackrock, Citi & Wells Fargo
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- European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, but off worst levels while the FTSE MIB -1.9% languishes on domestic turmoil
- Stateside, futures are off lows but in-fitting European benchmarks awaiting guidance from the key banking names due to report imminently
- TSMC beat on top-line metrics, some cautious commentary; INTC reportedly to increase prices, via Nikkei
- DXY continues to climb with peers impaired and USD/JPY above 139.00 while EUR/USD resists parity
- Core debt is hampered but BTPs lag on political instability with a confidence vote looming; BTP-Bund over 220bp
- Commodities under broad risk- and USD-induced pressure
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Speech from Fed's Waller, Earnings from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley & Charles Schwab
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- APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains, Nikkei 225 outperformed, and US equity futures were rangebound overnight
- DXY remained above the 108.00 level and closer to 108.50, EUR/USD weakened, and USD/JPY extended above 138.00
- 10yr USTs declined after the post-CPI fluctuations, Bunds continued to retreat, and 10yr JGBs were marginally lower
- Crude futures remained choppy, spot gold was kept rangebound, and copper traded sideways
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, US IJC, Speech from Fed's Waller, Earnings from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley & Charles Schwab
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- European bourses are pressured and towards the mid-point of the morning's parameters as we await US inflation data
- US futures more resilient, but similarly choppy, pre-CPI; ES +0.2%
- DXY continues to modestly ease, but remains above 108.00; as GBP benefits from UK data while EUR/USD lifts away from parity
- Core debt has faded from initial highs irrespective of broader sentiment; Italian & German supply well-received, US 30yr ahead
- Crude benchmarks are bid after a concerted pick-up in the European morning that occurred without any obvious fresh fundamental driver
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, Speeches from BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall St; US equity futures eked marginal gains overnight
- DXY lacked firm direction after the prior day’s choppy price action, EUR/USD was contained, and USD/JPY saw a rebound
- 10yr USTs marginally weakened, Bunds were lower, and 10yr JGBs traded sideways
- Crude futures were choppy, spot gold was rangebound, and copper was indecisive
- RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 2.50% and the BoK raised its Base Rate by 50bps to 2.25%, both as expected
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, EZ Industrial Production, US CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, IEA OMR, Speeches from BoC's Macklem & Rogers, Supply from Italy, Germany & US
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- European bourses are pressured in a broad China-COVID driven risk move, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%; alongside known concerns and a dismal ZEW
- Stateside, futures are lower across the board; NQ choppy amid rate action and post-PEP earnings
- DXY continues to climb while EUR/USD probes parity and the JPY regroups from earlier pressure
- Core debt continues to climb and made further advances on ZEW, US 10yr ahead
- Commodities are pressured given COVID developments and USD action, though spot gold little changed and torn between
- Looking ahead, highlights include OPEC MOMR (12:10BST/07:10ET), EIA STEO Speeches from Fed's Barkin, BoE's Bailey, US Supply.
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- APAC stocks were mostly negative after the weak performance across global counterparts; US equity futures extended on losses overnight
- DXY remained firm above 108.00 for around its best levels in around two decades; EUR/USD almost hit parity
- 10yr USTs were underpinned, Bunds held on to the prior day’s firm gains, and 10yr JGBs benefitted from haven demand
- Crude futures were pressured by a firmer dollar, the negative risk tone, and China's COVID woes; copper weakened overnight
- White House Press Secretary Jean-Pierre said the US CPI data is expected to be "highly elevated”, citing gas prices
- Looking ahead, highlights include German ZEW, OPEC MOMR, Speeches from Fed's Barkin, BoE's Bailey & Cunliffe, US, UK & German Supply
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- European bourses are pressured, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but well off post-open lows amid a gradual pick-up in sentiment
- Stateside, futures are directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes less pronounced with earnings season underway from Tuesday; ES -0.4%
- USD is bid and in proximity to Friday’s 107.79 best (107.75) thus far, with peers pressured and JPY lagging amid BoJ remarks
- Antipodeans slip on the China COVID situation as Shanghai announces more “high risk” areas, overnight updates on this hit APAC sentiment & commodities
- Core debt has been choppy, as the Bund tests 151.00 at best and leads peers
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Employment Trends, EZ Finance Ministers Meeting, Speech from Fed's Williams & US Supply
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- European bourses have been choppy throughout the session, moving between modest gains and losses despite a lack of fresh fundamental drivers
- DXY continues to climb printing 107.79 at best, to the detriment of peers & commodities; before backing off modestly
- USTs are steady pre-NFP while Bunds have been somewhat choppy, but generally relatively contained
- Fresh fundamentals have been limited for commodities, and focused on familiar themes, downside in wake of mentioned USD upside
- Former Japanese PM Abe has died following the earlier shooting during a speech in Nara, via NHK.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde & Fed's Williams
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- APAC stocks were higher across the board as the region took impetus from Wall St's fourth consecutive win streak.
- Former Japanese PM Abe collapsed and was taken to hospital after he was shot in the chest during a speech.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with Eurostoxx 50 unchanged after the cash market closed up by 2.0% yesterday.
- DXY traded on either side of 107, EUR/USD stalled just shy of 1.02 and JPY gained post-Abe shooting.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde & Fed's Williams.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%, in a continuation of the constructive APAC handover though action remains choppy.
- Bourses, and US futures, were bolstered amid reports that China is considering USD 220bln of stimulus with unprecedented bond sales, via BBG.
- DXY takes a reprieve and resided sub-107.00 with antipodeans leading on sentiment and GBP bid amid the looming resignation of PM Johnson
- Reports on this dented Gilts, though the complex more broadly was briefly hit on the China stimulus headline
- Senior US State Department Official says no announcement on China tariffs is expected from Secretary of State Blinken at his meeting with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi
- Looking ahead, highlights include US International Trade, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed's Waller & Bullard, BoE's Pill, US Refunding.
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- APAC stocks traded mostly positive but with gains capped following the choppy performance on Wall St.
- FOMC Minutes stated that participants recognised the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.3% after the cash market closed up by 1.7% yesterday.
- DXY eased back beneath 107, EUR/USD is back above 1.02, GBP/USD remains stuck below 1.20.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, US International Trade, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed's Waller & Bullard, ECB's Lane & Enria, BoE's Pill, Supply from Spain, France & US Refunding.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%, continuing to take impetus from the NDX-led rebound in US hours
- Stateside, futures are mixed/flat at present, but like their European peers have been choppy in overnight ranges awaiting data and Fed speak
- DXY continues to lift, at 106.80 highs to the detriment of peers across the board ex-JPY on technical factors
- In-fitting with the above, core debt is choppy but maintains underlying upward momentum; however, Bunds were dented post-supply
- Crude benchmarks are firmer and have been moving with the equity space after yesterday's significant crude selloff; however, the 'recovery' is limited with WTI pivoting USD 100/bbl
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Minutes, a Speech from Fed's Williams
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- European bourses are on the backfoot as the region plays catch-up to the losses on Wall Street yesterday
- US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark with no stand-out performers thus far
- In FX, Dollar is mostly bid, CHF outperforms, JPY is rangy, EUR sees conflicting inflation prints, and antipodeans lag
- Bunds unwind all and a bit more of their hefty post-NRW CPI gains as other German states show smaller inflation slowdowns and Spanish HICP soars
- Chinese President Xi said China's COVID prevention control and strategy is correct and effective and must stick with it
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI Prelim, US GDP Final, OPEC Meeting, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Mester & Bullard, ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey & MPC-elect Dhingra
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- APAC stocks were pressured amid headwinds from the US where disappointing Consumer Confidence data added to growth concerns (S&P 500 -2%)
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed higher by 0.3% yesterday
- DXY hovers around the 104.50 mark, EUR/USD maintains 1.05 status and USD/JPY sits on a 136 handle
- Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden and Finland’s NATO bid
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Sentiment Survey, German CPI Prelim, US GDP Final, OPEC Meeting, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Mester & Bullard, ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos & Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey & MPC-elect Dhingra
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- European bourses are firmer as sentiment picked up heading into the cash open amid encouraging Chinese COVID headlines
- China is to cut quarantine time for international travellers; Shanghai Disneyland (DIS) will reopen on June 30th
- US equity futures saw a leg higher in tandem with global counterparts, with the RTY narrowly outperforming
- Bond reversal continues amidst buoyant risk sentiment, hawkish ECB commentary and supply
- Looking ahead, US Consumer Confidence, G7 Summit, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, ECB’s Panetta & Fed’s Daly, Supply from the US
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- APAC stocks were mixed with the region partially shrugging off the lacklustre handover from the US (S&P 500 -0.3%)
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 0.2% yesterday
- DXY continues to hover around the 104 mark with G10 FX muted ahead of the European session
- French President Macron informed US President Biden of limited extra oil production capacity for Saudi and UAE
- Looking ahead, German GfK Sentiment, US Consumer Confidence, G7 Summit, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Elderson, Panetta & Fed’s Daly, Supply from Germany & US
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- European bourses are kicking off the week on the front-foot as global equities see tailwinds from Wall Street’s bounce on Friday
- Stateside, US equity futures track sentiment higher – with the NQ the current outperformer vs the ES, YM, and RTY
- In FX, DXY pivots 104.00, Yen benefits from all round fix buying, Aussie lags on Aud/Nzd headwinds, and the Yuan is underpinned
- Debt futures unwind more recovery gains with EGBs leading the way; T-note futures print fresh lows as US enters the fray
- US is pushing to discuss a price cap on Russian oil during the G7 summit, also looking to ban imports of Russian gold
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, EIA Update on delayed Weekly DoE Report, ECB Sintra Forum, G7 Summit, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, Supply from US
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- APAC stocks were higher across the board as the region took impetus from last Friday's firm gains on Wall St heading closer into month-end
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 2.8% on Friday
- US is pushing to discuss a price cap on Russian oil during the G7 summit, also looking to ban imports of Russian gold
- DXY heads into the European session sub-104, JPY leads G10 FX, other majors are relatively contained
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, EIA Update on delayed Weekly DoE Report, ECB Sintra Forum, G7 Summit, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, Supply from EU & US
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- European bourses have coat-tailed on the positivity seen on Wall Street yesterday; sectors overall project a modest defensive bias
- US equity futures are firmer across the board – with the NQ narrowly leading the pack, whilst the ES topped resistance at 3,800
- DXY resides towards the bottom of a relatively contained intraday range, still above 104.00; NZD outperforms
- Debt recoils after stretching recovery limits further, with trading volumes picking up on the reversal
- WTI and Brent August futures are extending their modest gains in recent trade despite a lack of news flow, but base metals remain mostly weak
- Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed's Bullard & Daly, ECB's de Cos, BoE's Pill
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- APAC stocks ultimately followed suit to the gains on Wall St where major indices clawed back opening losses; S&P 500 +1.0%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch softer but still on a 104 handle, antipodeans lead G10 FX and GBP shrugs off a tough night for the Tories.
- UK PM Johnson's Conservatives lost the two by-elections, triggering the resignation of Conservative Party Chairman Dowden.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, German Ifo, US New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed's Bullard & Daly, ECB's de Cos, BoE's Pill, Supply from Italy.
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- European bourses are pressured overall, but well off lows going into the US session, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%
- Broad pressure was seen post-PMIs which missed expectations and featured pessimistic internal commentary; hitting EUR and lifting EGBs
- EUR impaired by the PMIs which lifted the DXY to a 104.78 peak and pressured peers in turn, though JPY outperforms on risk
- Fixed firmer on the data with Bunds and OATs leading the way and peers lifted in sympathy
- Crude complex remains pressured with specific newsflow limited and focused on known themes; note, the EIA release has been delayed
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, US IJC, Policy Announcements CBRT & Banxico, US Bank Stress Test Results, Fed’s Chair Powell Speaks at the House Finance Committee.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive following the choppy price action on Wall St with lower oil prices and recession fears in focus; S&P 500 -0.17%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY is a touch softer but maintains 104 status, EUR/USD encountered resistance around 1.06, JPY leads G10 FX.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US IJC, Policy Announcements from Norges Bank, CBRT & Banxico, US Bank Stress Test Results, Fed’s Chair Powell Speaks at the House Finance Committee.
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- European bourses are subdued, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.9%, as Tuesday's positivity waned in the APAC session as commodities slipped
- Stateside, futures are in-fitting with the above action, ES -1.4%, where participants are awaiting the first session of testimony from Chair Powell
- DXY bid but mid-range pre-Powell with peers conforming to the tone as JPY & CHF benefit while activity currencies slip
- Commodities are, broadly speaking, curtailed though gold is cushioned given its haven-status; Biden is due to speak on fuel prices later
- Bonds bounce on broader risk sentiment though Bunds fade somewhat post issuance
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI & EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Powell, Barkin, Evans & Harker, BoC's Rogers, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were subdued after the risk-on mood from Wall Street (S&P 500 +2.45%) waned overnight amid pressure in commodities.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -1.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY is firmer but still on a 104 handle, EUR/USD has lost 1.05 status, antipodeans lag.
- Crude benchmarks took another leg lower as risk appetite in Asia deteriorated.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian & UK Inflation, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Powell, Barkin, Evans & Harker, ECB's de Guindos & Elderson, BoC's Rogers, Supply from Germany & US.
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- European bourses are firmer and building on Monday's upside, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; US futures are modestly outperforming, ES +1.7%, post-market holiday
- DXY is downbeat and sub-104.00 at worst; benefitting G10 peers ex-JPY given the region sticking to its monetary policy stance
- Core debt is within ranges and little changed overall though USTs are incrementally softer and the curve flitting between flattening/steepening
- Crude lifts amid broader risk sentiment while Denmark and Sweden declare “early warning” stage of gas supply preparedness
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin & Mester.
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- APAC stocks gained across the board amid a broadly constructive global risk tone (US markets closed yesterday)
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.6% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% yesterday
- DXY trades a touch softer, EUR/USD sits on a 1.05 handle, AUD leads G10 FX
- Crude futures continued to nurse some of Friday's heavy losses, helped by the risk tone and a softer dollar.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Speeches from ECB’s Rehn, Fed’s Barkin & Mester.
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- APAC stocks were mostly negative with risk appetite cautious and global markets also likely to be hampered by the absence of US participants today.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.3% yesterday.
- DXY is softer and on a 104 handle, AUD leads G10 FX, EUR/USD is back on a 1.05 handle.
- French President Macron failed to win an absolute majority in parliament.
- Bitcoin remains under pressure after the tumultuous trade over the weekend with prices back beneath the 20,000 level.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Panetta, Kazaks & BoE’s Mann, Juneteenth holiday in the US.
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- European bourses are now firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, as performance picks up following a mixed open amid comparably quiet newsflow
- US futures are in-fitting though the overall complex is cognisant of Quad Witching & Chair Powell
- DXY bid as the JPY tumbles amid the BoJ bucking the trend and remaining ultra-accommodative; activity-FX also hampered
- Core debt has seen a concerted bounce from earlier lows, though action has been two-way and pronounced; BTP-Bund sub-200bp
- WTI and Brent are modestly firmer and reside in proximity to the mid-point of the week’s over USD 11.00/bbl range
- Looking ahead, highlights include Quad Witching & a speech from Fed Chair Powell
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- APAC stocks mostly suffered firm losses amid the global risk-aversion which saw the S&P 500 close lower by 3.1%.
- BoJ kept policy settings unchanged as expected and will keep offering to buy 10yr JGBs at 0.25%.
- DXY has reclaimed 104 status, JPY is the clear laggard in G10 FX, EUR/USD sits on a 1.05 handle.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.8% after the cash market closed lower by 3.0% yesterday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), Quad Witching & Speech from Fed Chair Powell.
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- European bourses and US futures are hampered following a surprise SNB hike, with pronounced price action seen across assets
- SNB hikes by 50bp to -0.25% and cannot rule out further increases ahead; sparking noted CHF appreciation
- DXY is well off best levels, but has recouped 105.00 as activity currencies come under pressure while CHF & JPY outperform
- Bonds collapse as SNB unexpectedly strikes against inflation; with USTs back to bear-flattening before the afternoon’s data docket
- Russia and US are now at a "very, very hot point of confrontation", via Ria quoting the Kremlin.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoE Policy Announcement & speeches from ECB's Makhlouf.
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive and followed suit to the gains on Wall Street post-FOMC; SPX +1.46%
- The Fed hiked rates by 75bps and lifted its FFR projections, Fed Chair Powell said he does not expect 75bps moves to be common
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 1.6% yesterday
- DXY has rebounded from the post-FOMC declines, JPY lags G10 FX, GBP eyes the BoE announcement
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, BoE Policy Announcement, SNB Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Speeches from ECB's de Guindos & Panetta, Supply from Spain & France.
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- US futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.3%, though overall action here is more contained than in Europe given the FOMC looms
- European bourses are supported amid an ad-hoc ECB meeting on current market conditions, an update which bolstered the EUR and narrowed the BTP-Bund spread
- However, the spread re-widened amid sources which did not appear to indicate a marked policy shift from the gathering
- Broader FX features a downtrodden DXY to the benefit of peers across the board
- Crude has been curtailed amid COVID updates from China and Hong Kong alongside Biden's reported push for an explanation from producers over why supply isn't increasing.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Import/Export Prices & Retail Sales, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, de Cos, Panetta, Centeno
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- APAC stocks traded mixed following a mostly negative US lead and better-than-expected Chinese activity data.
- European equity futures are indicative of a mildly positive open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY is relatively flat ahead of the European open, JPY leads G10 FX, Cable is back below 1.20.
- ECB's Schnabel said the ECB will not tolerate changes in financing conditions that threaten monetary policy transmission.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Import/Export Prices & Retail Sales, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Swiss SECO, IEA OMR, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, de Cos & Panetta.
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- European bourses began on the front-foot; however, the ‘turnaround’ was shortlived with bourses now red across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%.
- Stateside, futures remain modestly positive, ES +0.4%, awaiting clarity from the Fed amid increasing speculation of a 75bp move
- DXY continues to slip with peers mixed with low-yielding nations benefitting though activity currencies slip once more
- Core debt has consolidated somewhat from Monday’s rout, though the curve continues to flatten amid the long-ends pullback; BTP-Bund eclipses 250bp
- Crude is firmer, but steady, awaiting fresh direction while the China-COVID situation remains tense and broader commodities unmoved on incremental US-China tariff developments
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, OPEC MOMR (12:45BST/07:45ET), Speech from ECB's Schnabel
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- European bourses began on the front-foot; however, the ‘turnaround’ was shortlived with bourses now red across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%.
- Stateside, futures remain modestly positive, ES +0.4%, awaiting clarity from the Fed amid increasing speculation of a 75bp move
- DXY continues to slip with peers mixed with low-yielding nations benefitting though activity currencies slip once more
- Core debt has consolidated somewhat from Monday’s rout, though the curve continues to flatten amid the long-ends pullback; BTP-Bund eclipses 250bp
- Crude is firmer, but steady, awaiting fresh direction while the China-COVID situation remains tense and broader commodities unmoved on incremental US-China tariff developments
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, OPEC MOMR (12:45BST/07:45ET), Speech from ECB's Schnabel
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- APAC stocks were pressured following the global stock and bond slump; S&P 500 -3.9%, NQ -4.6%
- A WSJ piece noted the Fed is likely "to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point interest rate increase at their meeting this week".
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.9% after the cash market closed with losses of 2.7% yesterday.
- DXY pulled back overnight, EUR/USD sits on a 1.04 handle, antipodeans outpace peers in G10 FX.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, UK Unemployment, German ZEW, US PPI, OPEC MOMR, Speech from ECB's Schnabel, Supply from the Netherlands, Italy & Germany.
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- European bourses are hampered across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.5%, in a continuation of the fallout from Friday's US CPI and amid fresh COVID concerns in China.
- US futures are in-fitting with this price action, ES -2.4% (sub-3800 at worst), ahead of the FOMC where the likes of Barclays now look for a 75bp hike after the May inflation release.
- DXY continues to climb and has peaked at 104.75 thus far, ahead of the 105.01 YTD best; peers are pressured as such though JPY has lifted from lows amid risk-related moves
- Core debt continues to fall amid broad flattening action with US 2s10s briefly inverting while BTP-Bund spread has widened above 240bps
- WTI & Brent are hampered amid the broader market pressure; though, did experience a fleeting move off lows during a break in the newsflow.
- Looking ahead highlights include speeches from ECB’s de Guindos & Schnabel.
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- APAC stocks declined across the board following the hot US CPI and amid fresh COVID concerns in China.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -1.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 3.4% on Friday.
- DXY held on to recent gains, EUR/USD is back below 1.05 and USD/JPY breached 135 for the first time since February 2002.
- UK government will publish legislation on the Northern Ireland Protocol today.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP and Speech from ECB’s de Guindos.
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- European bourses are pressured in a continuation of the APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.6%
- US futures are mixed/flat for the most part, ES -0.2%, ahead of the US CPI release
- DXY is bid but off 103.49 best levels while antipodeans/JPY outperform as GBP and CAD lag
- BTP-Bund yield spread continues to gradually widen, though Bund upside is offsetting this somewhat
- USTs pivot the unchanged mark pre-CPI, yield curve flattens
- WTI and Brent futures are choppy with relatively modest intraday gains following yesterday’s China-induced weakness
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Canadian Jobs Report, US University of Michigan (Prelim.), Speech from ECB's Lagarde (pre-recorded) and President Biden (on CPI)
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- APAC stocks were mostly negative after the glum mood rolled over from global counterparts (S&P 500 -2.4%)
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.9% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.7% yesterday
- DXY is softer but maintains 103 status, EUR/USD remains on a 1.06 handle, JPY leads G10 FX
- Crude futures declined amid COVID woes and with pressure seen as Chinese commodities came online
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Canadian Jobs Report, US University of Michigan (Prelim.), China M2, Speech from ECB's Lagarde
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- Equities are, overall, struggling for clear direction in relatively cautious trade going into ECB; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%
- Bourses, and US futures, were lifted amid further constructive China tech developments, this time for Ant; albeit, we have drifted modestly off best since, ES +0.3%
- DXY remains in proximity to 152.00 and within yesterday’s parameters amid JPY and Yuan upside while EUR lies between sizeable OpEx
- Core debt is choppy but Bunds have steadied near U/C alongside USTs pre-ECB and long-bond supply respectively
- WTI and Brent are steady after giving up overnight gains with participants cautious and cognizant of China's fluid COVID situation; amid fresh restrictions being announced
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, ECB Policy Announcement/Press Conference, and Supply from US (30yr)
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- APAC stocks were subdued following a weak handover from the US and with sentiment cautious
- DXY faded the prior day's marginal gains; G10s were broadly flat with some modest outperformance in the JPY
- The White House said it expects elevated inflation numbers to be released on Friday, according to Reuters
- Shanghai will lock down the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID-19 testing, according to Bloomberg
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, ECB Policy Announcement/Press Conference, Supply from US (30yr)
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- European bourses have trimmed initial upside, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with macro newsflow limited and the initial strength primarily a continuation of APAC/Wall St. leads.
- Stateside, futures are modestly pressured overall but well within overnight ranges ahead of a slim docket; ES -0.4%.
- USD/JPY continues to extend and has peaked just shy of 134.00 thus far; DXY continues to extend though is off intra-day bests
- Core debt experienced hefty concession into UK & German 10yr issuance, with respective debt off-lows post auctions; US 10yr ahead
- WTI and Brent have been moving in-line with broader risk; however, following the UAE Minister, the benchmarks have extended to the upside and post gains in excess of USD 1.50/bbl.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US MBAs & supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall St and optimism of China easing its tech crackdown
- DXY was rangebound near 102.50, USD/JPY printed fresh 20-year highs above 133.00, and Antipodeans saw late pressure
- RBI hiked by 50bps to 4.90% (exp. 40bps hike) via unanimous decision and dropped mention of "staying accommodative"
- Elon Musk's effort to arrange new Twitter (TWTR) deal financing is on hold amid uncertainty, according to Reuters sources
- Looking ahead highlights include Swiss Unemployment, German Industrial Output, EZ Employment (Final), EZ GDP (Revised), and Supply from UK, Germany & US
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- European bourses are modestly pressured, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%, with newsflow relatively limited once more and participants looking ahead to the week's risks events
- Stateside, futures are in-fitting directionally, but magnitudes marginally more contained ahead of a sparse US-specific docket
- AUD is contained once more after a 50bp RBA hike, exceeding expectations, sparked short-lived upside while the DXY is steady mid-range
- EGBs have drifted from intraday best levels as broader sentiment steadies somewhat and newsflow remains limited; US in-fitting, 3yr supply due
- WTI and Brent are also off best levels in-fitting with the risk tone after being initially buoyed by bullish bank commentary via GS & MS
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Trade Balance, EIA STEO, Yellen speaking & supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks traded cautiously amid upside in yields and ahead of upcoming risk events.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.9% after the cash market closed higher by 1.5% yesterday.
- DXY remains firmer above 102.50, EUR/USD is back below 1.07 and RBA-inspired gains in AUD were trimmed.
- UK PM Johnson won the confidence vote, as expected, with total votes at 211 vs 148.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, UK Composite/Services PMI (Final), Canadian Trade Balance, EIA STEO, Supply from UK & US.
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- European bourses are bolstered in limited newsflow as participants recoup from post-NFP pressure amid multiple China-related developments
- US futures in-fitting with this performance and aided by the incremental China COVID developments alongside a pick-up in the regions PMIs
- GBP is bid, but off highs, going into the no-confidence vote for PM Johnson between 18:00-20:00BST/13:00-15:00ET today
- DXY downbeat as such, to the broad benefit of peers, but still holding above a cluster of recent lows
- Core debt is pressured, with Bund downside lifting EUR, though BTPs outperform on FT source reports while the US curve flattens incrementally
- Crude is contained with gains of circa. USD 1.00/bbl, caught between Saudi lifting OSPs, El Sharara’s partial resumption and above China-related factors
- Looking ahead, UK PM Johnson’s no-confidence vote & holiday closures for Pentecost
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- APAC stocks traded mixed following last Friday's post-NFP losses on Wall St; European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open
- DXY traded flat overnight but remained above the 102.00 level; G10s were uneventful
- China’s Beijing will continue to roll back its COVID-19 restrictions in most districts
- UK Conservative rebels expect the 1922 Committee's Brady to make a statement this morning announcing PM Johnson will be subject to a no-confidence vote, according to ITV's Brand
- EU began preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia, according to Poland’s Deputy Minister
- North Korea fired 8 short-range ballistic missiles into the sea from Pyongyang on Sunday
- Looking ahead, a light calendar with Holiday Closures in Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Austria, Hungary & Iceland
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- European cash bourses are trimming the Wall Street-induced gains seen at the open; US futures posting modest losses
- NQ lags amid TSLA, -3.7% pre-mkt, CEO reportedly calling for a 10% staff reduction and saying he has a "super bad feeling" re. the economy
- DXY relatively rangebound, but inching higher overall, going into NFP; peers marginally softer, as such
- Debt downbeat with German yields extending further and the curve steeper while US peers are marginally flatter
- Crude is off best after APAC consolidation while spot gold is softer but remains contained overall
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Final PMIs, US Labour Market Report, ISM Services PMI, Speech from Fed's Brainard, Holidays in China & the UK
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- US stocks staged a comeback from opening losses; the Nasdaq outperformed and the SPX closed higher by 1.8%
- APAC stocks took impetus from the gains in the US; Chinese markets were closed for Dragon Boat Festival
- Fed's Mester (2022, 2024 voter) said ongoing rate increases are needed including 50bps rate hikes at the next two Fed meetings
- The White House said they do not expect to see blockbuster job numbers every month
- DXY remained lacklustre following the prior day’s slump beneath the 102.00 level amid the heightened risk appetite
- Looking ahead, highlights include US and EZ Final PMIs, German Trade Balance, EZ Retail Sales, US Labour Market Report, ISM Services PMI, Speech from Fed's Brainard, Holidays in China & UK
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- European bourses are posting modest gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, though volumes are lighter given UK Spring Bank Holiday
- Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.5%, with action similarly contained ahead of a busy PM docket featuring ADP and Fed's Mester
- DXY has pulled back to sub-102.50 status amid a broader, initial post-inflation CHF lead, bounce with GBP jubilant on the Jubilee
- EGBs continue to drift with associated yields higher and curves mixed/flatter, USTs directionally in-fitting but somewhat contained pre-PM events
- Crude remains curtailed after FT reports re. additional Saudi supply if Russian output declines going into today’s OPEC+ gathering
- Looking ahead, highlights include ADP, IJC & Factory Orders, JMMC & OPEC+ meetings, Speeches from Fed's Mester & NY Fed's Logan. UK Spring Bank Holiday
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- APAC stocks followed suit to the subdued performance seen in global peers after the recent upside in yields and hawkish central bank rhetoric.
- European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with Eurostoxx 50 unchanged after the cash market closed lower by 1.0% yesterday.
- FX markets were contained overnight with DXY circa 102.50, USD/JPY hovers around 130.00.
- Saudi Arabia is reportedly ready to pump more oil if Russian output declines, according to the FT.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, US Challenger, ADP, IJC & Factory Orders, JMMC & OPEC+ meetings, Speeches from Fed's Mester & NY Fed's Logan, Supply from Spain & France, UK Bank Holiday.
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- European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, and have struggled to find a clear direction after mixed APAC trade with a busy docket ahead.
- Similar performance seen in US futures, looking to key data and numerous speakers
- DXY bid but relatively contained while EUR lifted but failed to advance much on Holzmann’s latest given hefty OpEx
- WTI and Brent are recovering from yesterday's WSJ source report induced downside, with participants awaiting clarity/details at Thursday's OPEC+ gathering.
- Core EGBs have managed to regroup from early pressure, with BTPs also elevated, though USTs fail to derive upside this far
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Final PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, BoC Policy Announcement Speeches from Fed's Williams, & Bullard, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Panetta & Knot
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- APAC stocks traded mixed as risk sentiment only mildly improved from the lacklustre performance stateside.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.6% after the cash market closed lower by 0.7% yesterday.
- DXY hovers around the 102 mark, EUR/USD holds on to 1.07 status and JPY lags in G10 FX.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ, UK & US Final PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ADP, BoC Policy Announcement Speeches from Fed's Williams, & Bullard, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Panetta & Knot.
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- European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, with sentiment cautious after a mixed APAC handover and in wake of hot EZ CPI before Powell's meeting with Biden.
- Stateside, futures are pressured succumbing to the broader risk moves after initial cautious/contained trade.
- EZ Flash CPI for May surpassed expectations printing at 8.1% YY, denting Bunds and dragging peers lower in sympathy; yields extending and steepening
- DXY at the top-end of sessions range with antipodeans caught between mixed data while Yuan lifts post-PMIs
- Crude benchmarks are bid after the EU agreed to a watered-down Russian sanctions package; Council meeting is ongoing, set to conclude today
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Confidence; Fed's Powell meeting US President Biden, SNB's Zurbruegg.
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- APAC stocks were mixed as most indices lacked firm direction following the lack of a US lead, month-end and mixed data.
- The EU has agreed to ban seaborne exports of Russian oil to the EU which covers more than two-thirds of Russian oil imports.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% yesterday.
- DXY trades on a firmer footing, EUR/USD hovers around 1.0750, JPY lags in G10 FX.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Flash), US Consumer Confidence, Supply from Italy & Germany.
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- APAC stocks gained as regional bourses resumed the risk momentum seen across global peers last week
- Beijing has eased some COVID restrictions, whilst Shanghai moves closer to reopening
- EU failed to reach an agreement on the Russian oil embargo on Sunday and will conduct more talks on Monday
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.7% after the cash market closed higher by 1.8% on Friday
- DXY is softer, EUR/USD hovers around 1.0750, antipodeans outpace peers
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss KOF, EZ Consumer Confidence Final, German CPI (Prelim.), EU Council Special Meeting, US Memorial Day holiday
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- European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, drawing impetus from APAC strength into month-end with catalysts thin thus far.
- Stateside, futures are supported with familiar themes in play pre-PCE Price Index for insight into the 'peak' inflation narrative; ES +0.4%.
- USD was initially pressured to a fresh WTD low but has seen a concerted bounce at the modest expense of the EUR
- Core debt has struggled to find a firm direction but has erred back to initial highs with the US yield curve mixed/flat pre-price data
- Crude is underpinned, but off highs, amid broader sentiment while spot gold retains APAC upside after breaching the 21-DMA at USD 1850.80/oz
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Consumption and ECB's Lane.
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- APAC stocks took impetus from the risk-on mood on Wall St where all major indices closed higher.
- European equity futures are indicative of a contained open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 1.7% yesterday.
- DXY hovers around the 101.50 mark, EUR/USD has gained a firmer footing above 1.07, antipodeans lead.
- Crude futures plateaued at a two-month high after benefitting from the risk appetite.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Consumption, Speech from ECB's Lane.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, but remain within initial ranges in what has been a relatively contained session
- US futures are relatively contained, ES +0.2%, with newsflow thin and on familiar themes following yesterday's minutes and before PCE on Friday
- JPY and GBP outperform after/ahead of BoJ Kuroda and Sunak's cost of living announcement respectively, DXY sub-102.00 as such
- Core debt's early bid, which saw Bunds breach touted technicals, has fizzled out as Gilts dropped on details around Sunak's update
- Crude benchmarks reside at the top-end of relatively narrow parameters with newsflow slim and focused on familiar themes
- Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (2nd), US IJC, Canadian Retail Sales, CBRT, Fed's Brainard Speech, Supply from the US, Earnings from Alibaba & Baidu. Brent Jul'22 Options Expiry.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, but remain within initial ranges in what has been a relatively contained session
- US futures are relatively contained, ES +0.2%, with newsflow thin and on familiar themes following yesterday's minutes and before PCE on Friday
- JPY and GBP outperform after/ahead of BoJ Kuroda and Sunak's cost of living announcement respectively, DXY sub-102.00 as such
- Core debt's early bid, which saw Bunds breach touted technicals, has fizzled out as Gilts dropped on details around Sunak's update
- Crude benchmarks reside at the top-end of relatively narrow parameters with newsflow slim and focused on familiar themes
- Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (2nd), US IJC, Canadian Retail Sales, CBRT, Fed's Brainard Speech, Supply from the US, Earnings from Alibaba & Baidu. Brent Jul'22 Options Expiry.
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- APAC stocks were indecisive as risk appetite waned despite the positive handover from Wall St; SPX +0.95%, NDX +1.48%
- FOMC Minutes stated that most Fed officials backed 50bps hikes at the next couple of meetings; no mention of 75bps
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday
- DXY sits on a 102 handle ahead of the European open, EUR/USD is sub 1.07, AUD lags
- Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP (2nd), US IJC, Canadian Retail Sales, CBRT and CBR rate decisions, UK Chancellor Sunak, Fed's Brainard, supply from Italy and the US, Earnings from Alibaba, Baidu. Market holidays in Denmark, Sweden, Norway
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- The early optimism across the equity complex faded in European hours; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%
- US equity futures have trimmed earlier upside with contracts near the unchanged mark; ES +0.1%
- Buck built a base before Fed speak, Euro pulled back sharply, Kiwi held up well after RBNZ hike and higher OCR outlook
- South Korean Presidential Office said they have detected signs of North Korea testing a nuclear detonation device
- Apple's (AAPL) iPhone development schedule is reportedly hit by lockdowns in China, according to Nikkei
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- APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped and price action choppy after a lacklustre lead from global counterparts.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.0% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.6% yesterday.
- DXY eyes 102 to the upside, EUR/USD maintains 1.07 status and NZD outperforms post-RBNZ.
- RBNZ hiked rates by 50bps to 2.00% as expected, upgraded its OCR projections and signalled that rates will surpass neutral.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, US Durable Goods, FOMC Minutes, ECB Financial Stability Review, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Panetta, Fed's Brainard, Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Marks & Spencer and NVIDIA.
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- European bourses are subdued following the Snap-headwind, further hawkish ECB rhetoric and disappointing Flash PMIs; particularly for the UK, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%.
- US futures are similarly subdued and the Nasdaq, -1.7%, is taking the brunt of the pressure as tech names are hit across the board, ES -1.1%
- ECB’s Lagarde elaborated on Monday’s blog post, sparking a hawkish EUR and Bund reaction, pressuring the DXY to below 102.00
- Cable fell by a full below 1.2500 as UK Flash PMIs posted a notable miss, lifting Gilts in tandem and bringing the Bund back into positive territory
- USTs continue to outperform on broader risk sentiment, though have been influenced incrementally by Lagarde and PMIs, with the curve somewhat mixed thus far
- Crude is subdued amid broader risk, but off lows as the USD pullback while Gold fails to extend after breaching the 21-DMA
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, US ISM Semi-annual Economic Forecast, Speeches from Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, Supply from the US.
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- APAC stocks mostly declined after Snap's profit warning soured risk sentiment and weighed on US tech names.
- US President Biden said there is no change to the policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed higher by 1.4% yesterday.
- DXY is marginally firmer on a 102 handle, EUR/USD stopped just shy of 1.07 and antipodeans lag in G10 FX.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US ISM Semi-annual Economic Forecast, Speeches from Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde & Villeroy, Supply from UK (I/L) & US.
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- European bourses are mixed/modestly-firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, as the initial upside momentum waned amid fresh China COVID updates and hawkish ECB commentary
- Stateside, futures are firmer but similarly off best levels, ES +0.5%, with recent/familiar themes very much in focus ahead of a thin US-specific docket
- EUR lifted and outperforming amid hawkish commentary from ECB’s Lagarde, Kiwi in close proximity amid shadow board guidance
- WTI and Brent bid, alongside precious metals, amid the USD’s pullback with attention on broader sentiment and mixed China-COVID commentary
- US President Biden is mulling reducing China tariffs and said he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan
- Looking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Holzmann, Nagel, Villeroy, BoE's Bailey & Fed’s Bostic
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- APAC stocks were mixed as momentum waned due to China's COVID woes and record Beijing infections
- Australian Labor Party leader Albanese was elected as Australia’s PM and was sworn in on Monday
- Russian negotiator Medinsky said Russia is ready to continue stalled peace talks with Ukraine
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.5% on Friday
- DXY was subdued beneath 103, antipodeans lead in G10 FX, EUR/USD sits on a 1.05 handle
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo Survey, Speeches from ECB’s Villeroy & Fed’s Bostic, Supply from EU & Belgium
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- European indices have started the week's last trading day positively and have extended on gains in early trade
- US equity futures have also been trending higher since the reopening of futures trading overnight
- DXY bound tightly to 103.000, but only really firm relative to Yen on renewed risk appetite
- Debt futures reverse course amidst pre-weekend risk revival, partly prompted by PBoC LPR cut
- WTI and Brent July futures consolidate in early European trade; spot gold has been moving in tandem with the Buck
- Looking ahead, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), S&P reviewing South Africa, Speeches from ECB's Lane, Centeno, de Cos
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- APAC stocks picked themselves up from recent losses as risk sentiment improved from the choppy US mood; S&P 500 -0.6%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.1% after the cash market closed lower by 1.4% yesterday.
- Russia's Kremlin said Russia will demilitarise regions near the Donbas and forces will take all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
- DXY sits on a 102 handle, EUR/USD briefly rose above 1.06, AUD lags ahead of the upcoming election.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from ECB's Lane & BoE's Pill.
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- European bourses are pressured across the board in a broader risk-off move after yesterday's Wall St. sell-off
- Europe not supported by the brief APAC respite on Shanghai's reopening updates, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%; ES -1.2%
- DXY is pressured as havens and antipodeans are bid on risk and fiscal/fundamental factors respectively
- Debt resumes its haven rally, with Bunds eclipsing 154.00 and USTs near 120.00
- Crude curtailed on this price action, but, off worst amid reports that China is considering buying Russian crude
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, New Zealand Trade Balance, ECB Minutes, SARB Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Kashkari & ECB's de Guindos.
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- APAC stocks were pressured on spillover selling after the worst day on Wall St in almost two years; S&P 500 -4%
- Shanghai Vice Mayor said Shanghai will expand work resumption in areas with no COVID risk in early June.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed lower by 1.4% yesterday.
- DXY remains on a 103 handle, EUR/USD hovers around the 1.05 mark and AUD Leads G10 FX post-jobs data.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, New Zealand Trade Balance, ECB Minutes, SARB Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Kashkari & ECB's de Guindos, Supply from Spain & France
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- European bourses are rangebound and relatively directionless, Euro Stoxx 50 U/C, taking impetus from a mixed APAC session which failed to sustain US upside.
- DXY supported, but off best, as GBP slips on marginally sub-forecast CPI while EUR fails to derive support from ECB officials repeating summer guidance
- Gilts the noted outperformer post-CPI, lifting Bunds and USTs with them initially, though the latter two have failed to sustain such impetus
- Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer after a lower settlement, with focus on the narrowing spread; while gold is bid but capped by USD
- US assessed that North Korea could be preparing to conduct an ICBM test within the next few days as US President Biden travels to Asia, according to CNN
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Canadian CPI, Speech from Fed's Harker, Supply from the US, and Earnings from Cisco.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed as regional bourses only partially sustained the momentum from global peers; S&P 500 closed +2%.
- Fed Chair Powell said the Fed will not hesitate to move past neutral and will continue raising rates until they see inflation coming down.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 1.5% yesterday.
- DXY remains on a 103 handle, EUR/USD maintains 1.05 status and AUD weathers soft wage data.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ CPI (Final), US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Canadian CPI, Speech from Fed's Harker, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Aviva, easyJet, Cisco & Target.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, taking impetus from and extending on a positive APAC handover as the region's COVID situation improves
- US futures posting similar performance, ES +1.8%, ahead of Retail Sales and multiple Fed speakers including Powell
- EUR lifted and Bunds dented in wake of ECB's hawk-Knot mentioning a 50bp move should not be excluded if data warrants it
- A remark which lifted EUR/USD above 1.05, sent DXY to fresh session lows and the Bund below 153.00; USTs drifting in sympathy
- GBP remains the standout FX performer post labour data, though, participants await Truss' Brexit announcement to the Commons shortly
- WTI and Brent are firmer in-fitting with broader risk appetite and the aforementioned China COVID improvement; posting gains of circa USD 0.60/bbl
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Business Inventories, Speakers from Fed’s Powell, Bullard, Harker, Mester, Evans, Kashkari & ECB’s Lagarde
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- APAC stocks were positive but with gains capped after the uninspiring lead from Wall St; SPX -0.34%, NDX -1.16%.
- EU's Borrell said difficulties remain regarding the required unanimity on the proposed oil ban.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.9% after the cash market closed down 0.5% yesterday.
- DXY is contained on a 104 handle, JPY lags in G10 FX, AUD leads post-RBA minutes.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment, EZ GDP (2nd), US Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Business Inventories, Speakers from Fed’s Powell, Bullard, Harker, Mester, Evans, Kashkari & ECB’s Lagarde, Supply from UK & Germany.
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- European bourses are firmer as the rebound from Thursday's selloff continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%; US futures similarly bolstered, ES +1.0%
- Elon Musk says the Twitter (TWTR) deal is temporarily on hold, pending details; TWTR -20% in pre-market
- DXY is off YTD highs but has regained a firmer footing on the session; JPY slips as sentiment recovers
- Core debt has bounced back to unchanged for EGBs after conceding ground on the risk recovery; US yield curve steepening
- Fed's Powell reiterated it would be appropriate for there to be additional 50bps rate hikes at the next two meetings
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Imports Prices, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), Speeches from ECB's Schnabel & Fed's Kashkari.
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- APAC stocks were firmer as risk momentum picked up following on from the volatile session on Wall St.
- Fed Chair Powell said whether a soft landing can be executed or not may depend on factors that they cannot control.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.1% after the cash market closed down 0.9% yesterday.
- DXY has taken a breather from recent advances, EUR/USD remains sub-1.04, antipodeans attempt to claw back lost ground.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Imports Prices, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), Speeches from ECB's Schnabel, de Guindos & Fed's Kashkari.
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- US futures are lower across the board though the magnitude is less extreme vs Europe, ES -0.6%, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.5%
- DXY has climbed to a fresh YTD peak, amid broad FX pressure ex-JPY which is supported on haven premium
- As such, core debt has continued to lift with accompanying yields retreating further; US curve flattening pre-supply
- Crude is pressured but off lows following the Russian Kremlin on Finland's NATO bid and N. Korea firing a possible ballistic missile
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC & PPI, Banxico, OPEC OMR and Supply from the US
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- APAC stocks were pressured after the losses on Wall St where the major indices whipsawed in the aftermath of the firmer than expected US CPI data.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -2.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.6% yesterday.
- DXY traded indecisively around 104.00, antipodeans lag, USD/JPY is back below 130.00.
- The crypto collapse persisted with Bitcoin breaching the 27,000 level to the downside.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, Swedish CPIF, US IJC & PPI, Banxico, IEA OMR & OPEC OMR, Supply from US & Italy.
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- Stateside, futures are bolstered though with gains marginally more contained vs European-peers going into today's inflation data, ES +1.0%
- Greenback grounded in advance of US CPI as Treasury yields recede and curve re-flattens, DXY slips further below 104.00 and sub-103.50 vs fresh 2022 peak at 104.190 on Monday.
- As such, peers across the board are making gains vs USD; antipodeans leading on base-metals and CHF a relative outperformer after Tuesday's pressure
- WTI and Brent are bolstered in excess of USD 3.00/bbl in a paring of recent losses alongside a positive turn in China's COVID situation.
- ECB's Lagarde says we have not yet precisely defined the notion of “some time”, but I have been very clear that this could mean a period of only a few weeks
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Speeches from Fed's Bostic, ECB's Schnabel. Supply from the US and President Biden.
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- APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy performance on Wall Street.
- Ukrainian gas transit system operator chief said Russian occupying forces started taking transit gas and sending it to pro-Russian separatist regions.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.9% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY trades a touch softer after stalling ahead of 104.00, antipodeans lead in the G10 FX space.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Speeches from Fed's Bostic, ECB's Lagarde, Schnabel, Elderson, de Cos, Centeno, Vasle & Muller, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from Ubisoft, Siemens Energy, Poste Italiane, E.ON, Continental, ITV, Compass & Beyond Meat.
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- European equities feel some reprieve following the prior session’s selloff; Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%; US futures similarly bolstered.
- USD retains a firm bid with peers mixed across the board; JPY outpaces while USD/CHF nears parity.
- Core debt continues to bounce after an early breather, action was intensified post-Bobl/Gilt supply.
- Crude benchmarks are pressured, but yet to approach overnight lows, with fundamentals focused on familiar themes.
- EU Commission is reportedly planning new debt for Ukraine, estimated at EUR 15bln, to be discussed May 18th-20th
- Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese M2, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari, Mester, ECB's de Guindos & BoE's Saunders, Supply from the US. Earnings from Norwegian Cruise Line & Warner Music.
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- APAC stocks were mostly negative after the resumed sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 slipped beneath 4,000 for the first time since March 2021
- EU's Von Der Leyen tweeted that progress was made with Hungary but further work is needed.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 2.8% yesterday.
- DXY pulled back from YTD highs and the 104 level, benefiting most G10 FX counterparts ex-JPY.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German ZEW, Chinese M2, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari, Mester, ECB's de Guindos & BoE's Saunders, Supply from the Netherlands, UK, Germany & US, earnings from Bayer, Porsche, Norwegian Cruise Line & Warner Music.
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- European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%, in a continuation of the APAC handover amid multiple fundamental narratives.
- Stateside, US futures are similarly hindered, ES -1.7%, with the NQ marginally lagging given renewed yield upside.
- Russian President Putin, in his Victory Day speech, says you are fighting for the security of Russia now; says NATO was creating threats at our borders.
- USD remains bid but is marginally off-best, peers hindered across the board; debt yields climb, US curve is steepening.
- Crude is curtailed on above price action, familiar drivers in focus while spot gold slips amid USD/yield dynamics.
- Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from Fed’s Bostic and BoE’s Saunders.
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- APAC stocks declined amid recent upside in yields and as participants digested a slowdown in Chinese trade data
- US equity futures remained weak; European equity futures are indicative of a softer open
- EU ambassadors met on Sunday and failed to agree on a Russian oil ban deal. Ambassadors will meet again on Monday or Tuesday
- In FX, DXY remained firm against G10s across the board; Antipodeans underperformed
- UK ministers are said to be preparing to take unilateral action to override parts of the Brexit NI protocol "within weeks", according to The Times
- Looking ahead, EZ Sentix, Fed’s Bostic, BoE’s Saunders; Earnings: Infineon, BioNTech
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- European bourses are subdued across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%, reacting to the late-doors pressure in Wall St.
- Currently, US futures are modestly softer but relatively tentative overall going into the NFP release and subsequent Fed speak.
- EUR bid post hawkish commentary from ECB's Villeroy amid multiple other Central Bank speakers
- As such, EGBs have dropped dragging USTs down with them sending respective 10yr yields to 1.08% and 3.07% respectively.
- WTI and Brent are bid in an exacerbation of APAC price action; focus has primarily been on the EU oil embargo and opposition
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labour Market Reports. Speeches from Fed's Williams, Waller, Bostic, Bullard, Daly & Kashkari; BoE's Pill & Tenreyro.
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- US stocks took a beating and gave back post-FOMC gains in which the DJIA slumped by more than 1000 points
- APAC stocks were mostly lower amid spillover selling from the sharp declines on Wall Street
- DXY held firm amid recent gains in yields and after the stock rout in the US spurred a flight to safety
- EU's Borrell said EU members are almost there on an agreement on a new package of sanctions against Russia
- ECB's Holzmann said the ECB is planning to raise rates, which they will discuss and probably do at the June meeting
- The Labour Party has secured Wandsworth and are ready to call Westminster in local elections, according to BBC sources
- Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Riksbank Minutes, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Waller, Bostic, Bullard, Daly & Kashkari, Earnings from Adidas, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING & IAG.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%, benefitting from the perceived less-hawkish Fed and associated Wall St./APAC performance.
- Stateside, futures are softer across the board though the likes of the ES remain in relative proximity to overnight best levels, ES -0.5%.
- DXY finds its feet post-FOMC, to the detriment of G10 peers incl. GBP lagging pre-BoE.
- Core debt has been choppy though Bunds and Gilts have resumed an upward trend while USTs are modestly flatter.
- WTI and Brent have been pivoting relatively narrow ranges ahead of today's JMMC/OPEC+ gatherings, currently posting gains of USD 0.30/bbl.
- Looking ahead, highlights include OPEC+ (12:30BST/07:30ET), BoE Policy Announcement.
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- Fed hiked rates by 50bps as expected and will begin trimming its balance sheet on June 1st.
- Powell said 50bps increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings and that a 75bps increase is not something they are actively considering.
- APAC stocks traded positively following the strong handover from Wall St.; SPX +2.97%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a stronger open with Eurostoxx 50 +2.4% after the cash market closed lower by -1.0% yesterday.
- DXY was subdued after being dragged lower in the aftermath of the FOMC, EUR/USD is back on a 1.06 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, OPEC+, BoE & Norges Bank Policy Announcements, Speech from ECB's Lane, Supply from Spain & France.
- Earnings from Stellantis, UniCredit, AXA, Airbus, Deutsche Lufthansa, Credit Agricole, Barratt Developments, Swiss Re, Adecco & ConocoPhillips.
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- European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%, are modestly softer after another subdued but limited APAC handover amid ongoing regional closures.
- US futures remain in tight pre-FOMC ranges, with participants also awaiting ISM Services and ADP.
- WTI and Brent are bid amid the EU's 6th round of Russian sanctions, a complete ban on Russian oil.
- However, sources indicate that Hungary and Slovakia will receive an extended phase-out period.
- DXY is anchored pre-Fed while crude-sensitive FX picks up and AUD benefits on data/RBA calls
- EGBs are pressured but well off lows while USTs have lifted to near Unch. territory in a consolidation from the morning's pressure
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Composite/Services PMI (Final), US ADP, ISM Services, FOMC Policy Announcement & Fed Chair Powell Conference, OPEC JTC & US Quarterly Refunding. Holidays in China & Japan
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- APAC stocks were cautious amid holiday closures and as markets braced for the incoming FOMC announcement.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally positive open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY is contained around the 103.50 mark with FX markets largely uneventful overnight.
- US Secretary of State Blinken is to outline his China policy on Thursday at 11:00EDT/16:00BST.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ & US Composite/Services PMI (Final), EZ Retail Sales, US ADP, ISM Services, FOMC Policy Announcement & Fed Chair Powell Conference, OPEC JTC, Germany & US Quarterly Refunding. Holidays in China & Japan.
- Earnings from Volkswagen, Siemens Healthineers, Ferrari, Moncler, EDF, Telecom Italia, Hugo Boss, Swatch.
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- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, following late-door Wall St. upside; though, the FTSE 100 -0.5% lags as it catches up from Monday's holiday.
- Stateside, futures are modestly firmer/flat on the session but have been rangebound throughout the European morning
- DXY struggles to gain firm direction as global yields err higher with EUR & GBP bolstered on their yield movements
- AUD outperforms following an above-exp 25bp hike from the RBA
- Crude and base metals are subdued amid renewed COVID concerns as Beijing orders residents not to unnecessarily leave the area
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders and New Zealand Unemployment, a speech from ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from AMD, Pfizer, Starbucks. Holidays in China and Japan.
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- APAC stocks were unable to benefit from the late rally on Wall St. and traded mixed amid key market closures.
- RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 0.35% (exp. 15bps hike). RBA said it will require a further lift in interest rates during the period ahead.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.2% after the cash market closed lower by 1.8% yesterday.
- DXY is relatively flat vs. peers, AUD the clear outperformer post-RBA rate hike.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Unemployment, EZ PPI & Unemployment, US Factory Orders and New Zealand Unemployment, Speech from ECB's Lagarde
- Earnings from AMD, Pfizer, Starbucks, BP, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Post and Uniper, Holidays in China and Japan.
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- European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.60%, following a subdued APAC handover amid holiday-thinned conditions, soft data and COVID concerns.
- German Final Manufacturing PMI; "The survey's output index is now in contraction territory for the first time since the initial COVID shutdowns in the first half of 2020, with a similar situation for new orders".
- USD remains bid but has slipped from best levels and is yet to test last week's best for the index; EUR is hampered on PMIs while CAD and NOK are hit on oil.
- WTI and Brent came under pressure alongside the PMI-induced equity price action with focus on a potential oil/gas embargo and Hungary's opposition.
- Beijing is launching additional rounds of mass COVID testing while China's April PMIs printed below expectations.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing. Holidays in the UK and China.
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- APAC stocks declined amid mass holiday closures, weak Chinese PMIs and upcoming key risk events.
- Germany could end its dependence on Russian oil by the end of summer, according to reports.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with Eurostoxx 50 -1.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Friday.
- DXY heads into the EU open on a firmer footing with NZD and JPY leading losses vs. the USD.
- Crude futures were choppy amid weak Chinese PMI data, mixed COVID-19 headlines from China and ongoing geopolitical concerns
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing, Earnings from Italgas, Holidays in UK and China.
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- European equities remain on the front foot on the last trading day of the month
- State-side futures were dented overnight amid after-hours losses in Amazon and Apple
- Dollar bulls book profits into month end and DXY pulls back further from near 104.000 peak
- CBR opted for a bigger-than-forecast 300bp rate cut, and Kremlin said it is mulling Gold peg
- Looking ahead, highlights include US March PCE, US Chicago PMI, earnings from AbbVie, Bristol-Myers and Colgate-Palmolive
Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
- APAC stocks gained after the firm lead from the US but with advances in the region capped by disappointing earnings from Amazon and Apple.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.5% after the cash market closed higher by 1.1% yesterday.
- DXY has pulled back from recent advances but retains 103 status, activity currencies outperform G10 peers.
- Crude futures held on to yesterday's gains after Germany dropped its opposition to an EU embargo on Russian oil.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Flash CPI and GDP, US March PCE, US Chicago PMI, CBR Announcement, Speech from SNB’s Jordan, Supply from Italy
- Earnings from BBVA, BASF, AstraZeneca, NatWest, AbbVie, Exxon, Chevron, Bristol-Myers and Colgate-Palmolive.
Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
- Equities in Europe continue to gain heading into month-end, with overall sentiment across stocks bolstered
- US equity futures are firmer across the board, with the NQ clearly outpacing its peers; Meta +17% pre-market
- BoJ maintained policy settings and forward guidance, will conduct fixed-rate JGB buying operations on every working day
- EU energy groups are reportedly preparing to meet Russian President Putin's terms for gas, according to the FT
- DXY has extended its advances above 103.50, JPY lags post-BoJ, EUR/USD remain depressed near 1.0500
- Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP, PCE Advance, IJC, US Supply, earnings from Amazon, Apple, Intel, Twitter, Mastercard & McDonalds
Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
- APAC stocks were higher across the board amid a slew of earnings updates and a dovish BoJ; US futs were supported by Meta (+18.3% after-hours).
- BoJ maintained policy settings and forward guidance, will conduct fixed-rate JGB buying operations on every working day.
- Russia is planning referendums on the official accession of the Donbas region in mid-May.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.6% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% yesterday.
- DXY has extended its advances above 103, JPY lags post-BoJ, EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain depressed on 1.05 and 1.25 handles respectively.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Retail Sales, German State and National CPI, US GDP and PCE Advance, Riksbank announcement, Speeches from ECB’s de Guindos and Elderson, Riksbank's Ingves, US Supply.
- Earnings from Sabadell, Clariant, Saint-Gobain, Evolution Gaming, Barclays, Sainsbury's, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Twitter, Mastercard & McDonalds.
Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
- European bourses recovered from the losses seen at the cash open, with the region currently posting board-based gains
- US equity futures see slightly more pronounced gains vs Europe following yesterday’s hefty losses
- Greenback continues to grind higher in its guise of global reserve and prime safe haven with DXY inching closer to 103.000
- Russia's Gazprom has halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland due to lack of payment in roubles
- EU Commission President von der Leyen said the EU is mapping out a coordinated response
- Looking ahead Weekly EIA Inventories, New Zealand Trade Balance, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, SNB’s Zurbruegg, BoC’s Macklem, Supply from the US
- Earnings from Meta, Boeing, Ford, PayPal, Qualcomm & T-Mobile
Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
- APAC stocks were mostly negative after the heavy losses in the US; SPX -2.81%, NDX -3.87%
- US Secretary of State Blinken said the US has not yet seen a sign that Russian President Putin is serious regarding meaningful negotiations on Ukraine.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 1.0% yesterday.
- DXY has held on to recent spoils above 102, AUD outperforms in G10 FX post-hot CPI data, EUR/USD hit a 5yr low.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, Weekly EIA Inventories, New Zealand Trade Balance, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Lane, SNB’ s Zurbruegg, BoC’s Macklem, Supply from Germany & US.
- Earnings from Deutsche Bank, Iberdrola, Mercedes-Benz, STMicroelectronics, Credit Suisse, GSK, LSE, Meta, Boeing, Ford, PayPal, Qualcomm & T-Mobile.
US TRADE SPX -2.81% at 4,175, NDX -3.87% at 13,009, DJIA -2.38% at 33,240, R2K -2.99% at 1,895. * US stocks* tumbled as Monday's late-session rebound proved to be a dead-cat bounce in the wake of renewed global risk aversion, while the Nasdaq led the declines as participants braced for the large-cap tech earnings.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed Vice-Chair Nominee Brainard secured Senate votes to win confirmation although the Senate failed to advance Cook's Fed nomination due to COVID absences, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Russian President Putin said Russia is not refusing to negotiate with Ukrainians and they continue in an online format, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken said the US has not yet seen a sign that Russian President Putin is serious regarding meaningful negotiations on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- UN Secretary-General Guterres said Russian President Putin agreed in principle to the UN involvement in Mariupol evacuation, according to Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY/ASSISTANCE
- Russian Defence Ministry said Ukraine had lost control over the entire Kherson region as well as parts of three other regions, according to Interfax.
- UK Foreign Minister Truss is to say that Ukraine's fate remains in the balance and the West must prepare for the long-haul, while allies must increase their defence spending, according to Sky News.
- Blasts were heard in Russia's Belgorod and Russia later reported a fire at an ammunition depot in the region, according to TASS.
- Dutch government is to provide a limited number of armoured howitzers to Ukraine, according to ANP.
SANCTIONS/ENERGY/ECONOMIC
- Gazprom informed Bulgaria's Bulgaraz it is to halt gas supplies as of April 27th, according to the Bulgarian Energy Ministry, according to Reuters.Gazprom said it has not suspended gas supplies to Poland and that Poland has to pay for gas on Tuesday under new Rouble rules.
- Polish gas firm PGNIG said Russia is to halt gas deliveries starting April 27th, while other reports later noted that Russian gas supplies to Poland were halted, according to operator data.
- India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) is struggling to find a vessel that it can ensure to ship 700k bbls of crude oil from Russia's far east in a sign of sanctions impacting trade flows, according to Reuters.
OTHER White House is reportedly worried that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in weeks, according to Reuters. * US State Department said unresolved complex questions may preclude a return to the JCPOA, according to Sputnik. * Syrian air defences engaged Israeli aggression over Damascus*, while the Syrian Ministry of Defence later stated that four soldiers were killed and three injured following Israel's missile strike, according to state media.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly negative after the losses in the US where participants braced for the large-cap tech results including Alphabet which disappointed, while the region also navigated through a deluge of earnings. * ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and the consumer-related stocks, while mostly firmer than expected CPI data added to the pressure for the RBA to hike as early as next week. * Nikkei 225 retreated with the worst-performing stocks in the index pressured by earnings updates. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy as Beijing lockdown fears were stoked after Chaoyang district was classified as high-risk and the Tongzhou district halted schools, although participants also digested firmer Industrial Profits and President Xi’s recent announcement to step up infrastructure construction. * US equity futures found some reprieve overnight and nursed some of the prior day's heavy losses. * European equity futures* are indicative of a softer open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 1.0% yesterday.
FX DXY traded flat but held on to recent spoils above the 102.00 level after it notched a fresh YTD high. * EUR/USD remained subdued amid the firmer greenback and printed its lowest level since April 2017. * GBP/USD languished at the 1.25 handle after the prior day’s underperformance against all G10 counterparts. * USD/JPY rebounded after finding support at 127.00 to reverse some yesterday’s haven-driven JPY inflows. * Antipodeans* were somewhat varied in which AUD was underpinned by firmer than expected CPI data which stoked expectations for the RBA to act with JPMorgan and SocGen calling for a lift-off at next week’s meeting.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were kept afloat as risk aversion spurred haven appeal and with an eye on month-end. * Bunds traded rangebound with upside capped by resistance at yesterday’s peak. * 10yr JGBs* remained indecisive after failing to breach 149.50 and following mixed results at the 2yr auction.
COMMODITIES Crude futures were flat but held on to yesterday's gains with Russia cutting gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria. * US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +4.8mln (exp. +2.2mln), Gasoline -3.9mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillates +0.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Cushing +1.1mln * Spot gold marginally declined beneath USD 1900/oz level as the dollar remained firm. * Copper was lacklustre alongside the mostly negative risk appetite and with the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru mulling taking action to evict the unauthorised campers at the mine. * MMG 's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is considering a plan to forcibly evict indigenous communities camped at the mine* with Peru's Ombudsman expecting an eviction attempt this Wednesday, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices attempted to nurse some of the prior day's losses but remained beneath the 39,000 level.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.5598 vs exp. 6.5614 (prev. 6.5590)
- Beijing's Tongzhou district halted schools due to coronavirus, according to China News.
- Japan's Defence Ministry said a Chinese navy vessel was spotted in its territorial waters near islands in the southwestern prefecture of Kagoshima which was the first confirmed intrusion by a Chinese vessel since last November, according to Kyodo. It was later reported that Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said Japan conveyed concerns through diplomatic route regarding a Chinese navy vessel entering Japanese waters.
DATA RECAP
- Australian CPI QQ (Q1) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.3%)
- Australian CPI YY (Q1) 5.1% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 3.5%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q1) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%)
- Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Q1) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 2.6%)
- Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Mar) 12.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
- Chinese Industrial Production YTD YY (Mar) 8.5% (Prev. 5.0%)
UK/EUNOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Sunak was reportedly urged to cut tax during a recent Cabinet meeting, although he suggested that further moves on tax would have to wait until the autumn budget, according to The Telegraph.
- US and UK trade officials agreed to meet again in June to resume trade dialogue, according to Reuters.
- EU is to move away from the emergency phase of the COVID pandemic, while it is to recommend targeted testing and to begin monitoring COVID-19 in ways similar to flu surveillance, according to a document cited by Reuters.
- European bourses feel some reprieve following the bout of selling seen in recent sessions
- US equity futures trade relatively flat with a mild downside bias after trimming earlier losses
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia will continue peace talks with Ukraine; Germany will make an announcement on sending tanks to Ukraine
- Dollar mixed as broad risk appetite returns after Monday’s flight to safety; Euro and Pound flounder as DXY eyes 102.000
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Private Crude Inventories, NBH Policy Announcement, Supply from US, Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, General Motors, Visa, 3M and more
26th April 2022
SNAPSHOTLOOKING AHEADUS Durable Goods, Private Crude Inventories, NBH Policy Announcement, Supply from US, Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, General Motors, Visa, 3M and more.
Click here for the Week Ahead preview
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said risks of a nuclear war are serious and real but Russia's position is "inadmissibility" of such war and stated Russia wants to reduce artificial risks of nuclear war. Lavrov also stated that weapons delivered to Ukraine from the west will be legitimate targets for the Russian military, while he added that NATO is essentially engaging into war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy, according to Reuters.
- Russia and Belarus will hold joint military air forces and anti-missile drills in Belarus, according to Ifx; details light
- Germany will make an announcement on sending tanks to Ukraine at an international meeting of defence ministers in Ramstein today, according to AFP sources.
- Donestk pro-Russian separatist leaders says it is necessary to commence the next stage of the military operation after reaching borders of the Donestk region, according to Ria.
- Russia has warned Japan it will retaliate if the scale of the US-Japan naval exercises expand, via Ria citing the Russian Foreign Ministry.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- European Energy Commissioner Simson says a 6th package of EU sanctions against Russia is expected very soon; date unconfirmed, according to Reuters.
OTHER Explosions were reported close to a government building in Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria, according to TASS. * North Korean Leader Kim said any forces that seek military confrontation with North Korea will be destroyed and they will continue to take steps to speed up development of their nuclear arsenal. Kim also stated that the nuclear deterrence will not be bound by use and only to prevent war when unwarranted circumstances arise, while they are to be ready to deploy nuclear deterrence anytime, according to KCNA. * Experts warned that North Korean Leader Kim may have ambitions to use the nation's nuclear weapons programme to assert control over the Korean peninsula*, according to FT.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses feel some reprieve following the bout of selling seen in recent sessions and following Wall Street's afternoon bounce yesterday. * Sectors are all in the green but to varying degrees – with Basic Resources rebounding with a vengeance after yesterday’s slide, albeit Energy has failed to hold onto early gains as the underlying commodity price wanes. * Stateside, US equity futures trade relatively flat with a mild downside bias (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RYT -0.1%, YM -0.1%), trimming earlier losses. * United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)* Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 3.03 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 24.4bln (exp. 23.79bln), reaffirms guidance; doubles buy-back target to USD 2bln
Click here for more detail.
FX Dollar mixed as broad risk appetite returns after Monday’s flight to safety; USD down vs high betas, but up against most index components. * Aussie and Kiwi refreshed following long holiday weekend and further rebound in Yuan on the back of China’s RRR reduction effective May 15 * Euro and Pound flounder as DXY eyes 102.000 and conflict contagion weighs heavier in Europe relative to the US * Yen* continues to consolidate off multi year lows after a dip in Japan’s unemployment rate and Government rolls out fiscal relief measures * Japanese PM Kishida said rapid FX moves are undesirable; no comment on specific JPY levels.
Click here for more detail.
Major FX option expiries for today's NY cut
- EUR/USD: 1.0750 (1.05BN), 1.0795-05 (2.07BN)
- AUD/USD: 0.7220 (1.22BN)
FIXED INCOME Debt futures resume recovery rally or retracement from recent cycle lows with curves a tad flatter ahead of 2 year US auction * Bunds are just shy of Monday's 155.26 peak, Gilts back above 119.00 and 10 year T-note eyeing 120-00 * BTPs hold firm following Italian issuance, irrespective marginally softer cover ratios * UK debt* lags after larger than forecast PSNB deficit and upwardly revised 2022/32 DMO remit * UK DMO raises its 2022/23 Gilt issuance remit to GBP 131.5bln from GBP 124.7bln and sees GBP 7bln additional T-bill sales
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COMMODITIES WTI and Brent June futures continue drifting lower as the crude complex continues to be dampened by China's COVID situation. * Spot gold was pressured by the firmer Buck and fell to a current intraday low of USD 1,894/oz in early trade before finding a base and reclaiming a USD 1,900/oz handle * Base metals*, meanwhile, are mostly firmer in what is seemingly a rebound following yesterday's downside. * Shanghai Futures Exchange raises trading limits and margin requirements for steel rebar, wire rod, and hot rolled coils futures from settlement on April 28.
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NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB's Kazak's said two or three rate hikes priced by markets is quite reasonable; prefers first rate hike after APP ends, leaning towards July; there is no reason why rate hikes should pause at zero.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Maersk (MAERSKB DC) revises downwards outlook for growth of global container demand to -1% to +1% (prev. 2% to 4%)
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices are contained above 40k. * Binance has launched Binance Refugee Crypto Card for all current and new Binance users from Ukraine moving to EEA countries.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly higher with bourses in the region encouraged after the rebound on Wall Street. * ASX 200 bucked the trend as the prior day’s rout caught up with markets in Australia and New Zealand on return from the extended weekend, with miners pressured by tepid output from South32 and Woodside Petroleum. * Nikkei 225 gained after a surprise decline in Unemployment and amid preparations for a relief package. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* were lifted as strength in tech helped the former reclaim the 20k level and after further PBoC policy support pledges gradually offset the initial Beijing COVID-19 jitters in the mainland.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.5590 vs exp. 6.5585 (prev. 6.4909)
- PBoC said it will step up prudent monetary policy's support for the real economy and that monetary policy support will emphasise industries, SMEs and home businesses impacted by COVID, as well as agricultural production and energy, according to Reuters.
- Beijing is to see new COVID infections are screening continues, one area in the city was raised to high-risk area, according to the Beijing Health official.
- Nomura expects the PBoC to reduce RRR on FX deposits by another 100bps to 7% by year-end.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said there is no truth to the media report that Japan and the US discussed joint FX intervention, while he later said it is important to secure ample forex reserves for FX intervention in the future, according to Reuters.
- Japanese PM Kishida said Japan has compiled a relief package of JPY 12.2tln to cushion the impact from rising raw material costs.
DATA RECAP
- Korea (Republic of) GDP Growth YY Advance (Q1) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 4.2%)
- Korea (Republic of) GDP Growth QQ Advance (Q1) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.2%)
- APAC stocks were mostly higher with bourses in the region encouraged after the rebound on Wall Street; S&P 500 +0.6%, NDX +1.3%.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia will continue peace talks with Ukraine.
- Twitter (TWTR) is to be bought by Elon Musk for USD 44bln or 54.20/shr in cash and will become a privately held company upon completion of the transaction.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.6% after the cash market closed lower by 2.2% yesterday.
- DXY took a breather from recent gains, antipodeans lead, EUR/USD remains on a 1.07 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include, US Durable Goods, Private Crude Inventories, NBH Policy Announcement, Supply from Italy and US, Earnings from Santander, Michelin, Orange, HSBC, Novartis, UBS, Alphabet, Microsoft, General Motors, Visa, 3M and more.
US TRADE SPX +0.64% at 4,299, NDX +1.32% at 13,533, DJIA +0.70% at 34,049, R2K +0.59% at 1,952. * US stocks* were ultimately firmer after risk assets recovered from NY morning lows, whereby global risk appetite initially took cues from the growing demand shock in China after the expansion of COVID testing in Beijing.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Twitter (TWTR) is to be bought by Elon Musk for USD 44bln or 54.20/shr in cash and will become a privately held company upon completion of the transaction, according to PR Newswire. There are no financing conditions for closing the transaction and Musk has secured USD 25.5bln of fully committed debt and margin loan financing.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia is to continue contacts with Ukrainian President Zelensky's team and will continue peace talks with Ukraine, while he also stated the situation in Ukraine will end with a treaty but its content will depend on the military situation, according to Interfax and AFP.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said risks of a nuclear war are serious and real but Russia's position is "inadmissibility" of such war and stated Russia wants to reduce artificial risks of nuclear war. Lavrov also stated that weapons delivered to Ukraine from the west will be legitimate targets for the Russian military, while he added that NATO is essentially engaging into war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy, according to Reuters.
SANCTIONS/ENERGY/ECONOMIC
- White House said it is still reviewing sanctions aimed at Russian President Putin and that there is more the US will likely do, according to Reuters.
- US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said he anticipates another request for Ukraine aid later this week and expects swift, bipartisan support for the next round of Ukraine assistance.
- UK government announced it will cut tariffs on all goods from Ukraine to zero under the UK-Ukraine FTA and it announced an export ban on products and technology that Russia could use to repress the Ukrainian people.
- UK MoD tweeted that the invasion of Ukraine significantly disrupted Ukrainian agricultural production with grain harvest for this year likely to be around 20% lower Y/Y, while it noted Ukraine is the world's fourth largest producer and exporter of agricultural goods.
- EU is reportedly mulling a cap on prices paid for Russian oil as a way to hit Russia's revenues, according to FT.
OTHER Explosions were reported close to a government building in Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria, according to TASS. * North Korean Leader Kim said any forces that seek military confrontation with North Korea will be destroyed and they will continue to take steps to speed up development of their nuclear arsenal. Kim also stated that the nuclear deterrence will not be bound by use and only to prevent war when unwarranted circumstances arise, while they are to be ready to deploy nuclear deterrence anytime, according to KCNA. * Experts warned that North Korean Leader Kim may have ambitions to use the nation's nuclear weapons programme to assert control over the Korean peninsula*, according to FT.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly higher with bourses in the region encouraged after the rebound on Wall Street. * ASX 200 bucked the trend as the prior day’s rout caught up with markets in Australia and New Zealand on return from the extended weekend, with miners pressured by tepid output from South32 and Woodside Petroleum. * Nikkei 225 gained after a surprise decline in Unemployment and amid preparations for a relief package. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lifted as strength in tech helped the former reclaim the 20k level and after further PBoC policy support pledges gradually offset the initial Beijing COVID-19 jitters in the mainland. * US equity futures were rangebound overnight and only marginally extended on yesterday's rebound; ES +0.1% * European equity futures* are indicative of a firmer open with Eurostoxx 50 +1.6% after the cash market closed lower by 2.2% yesterday.
FX DXY marginally softened as it took a breather from the prior day’s gains where it printed fresh YTD highs. * EUR/USD nursed recent losses after support held around the 1.0700 level and as the USD momentum waned. * GBP/USD bounced off a trough near the 1.2700 level but with upside capped by a lack of catalysts. * USD/JPY was choppy after Japan's Finance Minister reiterated his familiar jawboning and refuted reports of discussions with the US on joint FX intervention, although later suggested a willingness for future intervention. * Antipodeans took advantage of a softer dollar and improved risk tone, while CNY was also firmer after the PBoC's FX RRR cut announcement which Nomura expects to be followed by another 100bps reduction by year-end. * BoC Governor Macklem said he will not rule out raising interest rates more than 50bps, but said it would be very unusual*, according to Reuters.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were lacklustre and pulled back from recent bull-steepening and brief foray above 120.00. * Bunds faded some of Monday’s gains with havens pressured by the improved risk appetite. * 10yr JGBs* were cushioned amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for various maturities including an unlimited amount in the 5yr-10yr in its fixed-rate special operation.
COMMODITIES Crude futures clawed back some of the prior day's losses but with gains limited by Beijing lockdown fears. * Spot gold traded sideways with price action stuck near the USD 1900/oz level despite a softer greenback. * Copper rebounded overnight in tandem with the mostly constructive risk mood. * CME is to cut the daily trading limit on CBoT Wheat futures to USD 0.70/Bu from 0.80/BU on May 2nd, but raise Corn and Soybeans limit* to USD 0.50/Bu and USD 1.15/Bu from 0.35/Bu and 0.90/Bu, respectively.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were flat and held on to Monday's gains above the 40,500 level.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.5590 vs exp. 6.5585 (prev. 6.4909)
- PBoC said it will step up prudent monetary policy's support for the real economy and that monetary policy support will emphasise industries, SMEs and home businesses impacted by COVID, as well as agricultural production and energy, according to Reuters.
- Nomura expects the PBoC to reduce RRR on FX deposits by another 100bps to 7% by year-end.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said there is no truth to the media report that Japan and the US discussed joint FX intervention, while he later said it is important to secure ample forex reserves for FX intervention in the future, according to Reuters.
- Japan is preparing a USD 48bln/JPY 6.2tln package to ease the inflation pain with more gasoline subsidies and low-rate loans with the package to be compiled as early as Tuesday, while the government is to request JPY 2.7tln under the supplementary fiscal 2022 budget, according to the Nikkei.
DATA RECAP
- SouthKorean GDP QQ (Q1 A) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.2%)
- South Korean GDP YY (Q1 A) 3.1% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 4.2%)
- Japanese Unemployment Rate* (Mar) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
- European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors
- Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, WSJ sources
- Stateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields.
- DXY set a new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and a sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities
- French President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include a Speech from ECB’s Panetta, Earnings from Activision Blizzard, Coca-Cola
25th April 2022
SNAPSHOTClick here for the Week Ahead preview
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Russian President Putin has dropped hopes for a Ukraine deal and shifted to a land-grab strategy, according to FT.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he sought talks with Russian President Putin because discussions via negotiators will not achieve the desired result, while Zelensky said that he wants to end the war, but Ukraine will abandon talks if Russia destroys “our people” in Mariupol and conducts “pseudo-referendums” to create “pseudo-republics” in occupied areas, according to Reuters. Zelensky also commented that Ukrainian forces will retake everywhere Russia occupies and key questions in negotiations with Russia are the Donbas and Crimea.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said they expect concrete things and weapons when asked about talks with US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defence Austin in Kyiv, while Ukraine wants the US to be one of its security guarantors, according to Reuters.
- US State Department senior official said Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin met with Ukrainian President Zelensky and said US diplomats will return to Ukraine in the coming week beginning in Lviv but will eventually return to Kyiv. Furthermore, the US will provide more than USD 713mln in new foreign military financing for Ukraine and 15 other nations in central and eastern Europe, while the new funding will help Ukraine fight Russia's renewed offensive in the east and south of the country, as well as transition to more advanced weapons and air defence systems, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovych said Russia was unsuccessful in new attempts to storm several towns in Ukraine’s Luhansk region and that Ukraine offered Russia a special round of talks to be held in Mariupol to discuss an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian corridors in Mariupol, as well as freeing or swapping all Ukrainian forces trapped there for Russian POWs.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he spoke with Turkish President Erdogan ahead of the latter’s talks with Russian President Putin and stressed the need for an evacuation of Mariupol civilians and exchange of soldiers at Azovstal. Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey is prepared to provide all assistance during the negotiation process and that the evacuation of the wounded and civilians in Mariupol must be ensured, according to Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak urged Russia to agree to a faster Easter truce in Mariupol, while he noted Russia is continuously attacking Mariupol’s Azovstal and is shelling with heavy air bombs and artillery, according to Reuters.
- Russia said it will open a humanitarian corridor for the Azovstal plant in Mariupol for civilians to lead on Monday, via ifx
- Russian Defence Ministry official accused the US of preparing provocations to accuse Russia of using biological, chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine in response to the successes of the Russian military operation, according to TASS.
- UK PM Johnson confirmed in a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky that the UK is providing more defensive military assistance which includes protected mobility vehicles, drones and anti-tank weapons, according to Reuters.
- UK Ministry of Defence said Ukraine repelled numerous Russian assaults along the line of contact in Donbas during the past week and that Ukrainian resistance has been strong despite Russia making some territorial gains. UK Ministry of Defence also said Russia is planning a staged referendum in the southern Ukraine city of Kherson aimed at justifying its occupation with the city key to Russia's objective of establishing a land bridge to Crimea and dominating southern Ukraine.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said they have not heard about preparations for holding a referendum in Kherson Province, according to Al Jazeera, via Al Jazeera
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- US is said to have withheld personal sanctions against Russian President Putin’s alleged girlfriend Alina Kabaeva who is the mother of at least three of his children, as it viewed this as an escalatory move but will keep the option on the table with the action saved for maximum pressure, according to WSJ.
- EU is preparing “smart sanctions” against Russian oil imports designed to minimise economic damage to the European economy, according to The Times citing a senior Brussels official.
- EU's Borrell said there is insufficient support by EU member states for a complete embargo or punitive tariffs on Russian energy imports, according to Die Welt.
FUND/PAYMENTS/OTHER
- Russia is switching to national currency payments with Azerbaijan and Armenia as part of measures to minimise risks from western sanctions, according to the Foreign Ministry cited by Sputnik.
OTHER Russia said it is to deploy its first unit of nuclear-capable Sarmat missiles by Autumn, according to Tass. * Turkey closed its airspace to Russian planes flying to Syria, according to Foreign Minister Cavusoglu. * Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a foreign ship carrying 200k litres of smuggled fuel, according to Fars. * Israeli military announced a projectile fired from Lebanon at Israel hit an open area, while Israel later fired at targets in Lebanon, according to Reuters. * Yemeni Houthis made a new offer to the UN including the release of 200 prisoners from each of the warring sides before Eid Al-Fitr*, according to Al-Masirah TV. * Iranian Foreign Minister says "Currently, we are not at a point where we can negotiate with Saudi Arabia at a political level.", according to Tehran Times. * Iranian Foreign Minister says Iran and EU agreed the need for a meeting regarding the Iranian Nuclear Deal', via Tehran Times.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors. * Sectors are lower across the board with a clear defensive tilt: Energy and Basic Resources sit at the bottom of the bunch amid hefty downside in underlying commodities * Stateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields. * Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid and be more receptive to a deal with the sides meeting on Sunday to discuss the proposal. It was separately reported that Twitter is facing increasing shareholder pressure to negotiate with Elon Musk in his takeover bid and that the Co. is in talks with Elon Musk in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week*, according to WSJ. * Twitter (+0.7% pre-market) is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk's bid, via WSJ.
Click here for more detail.
FX DXY sets new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities. * Yen back in favour as risk sentiment sours irrespective of denials about joint Japanese and US intervention discussion - Usd/Jpy towards base of 128.87-127.89 range. * Aussie underperforms on Anzac Day due to steep decline in copper and iron ore - Aud/Usd tests 0.7150 and Aud/Nzd cross under 1.0850 vs 1.0940 at one stage overnight. * Yuan extends depreciation as Covid spreads to a district in Beijing and PBoC continues to lower Cny midpoint reference rate - Usd/Cnh just shy of 6.6000, Usd/Cny eyeing 6.5650. * Euro averts 1.0700 test, narrowly, and pares more losses after surprisingly upbeat Ifo survey, on the surface - Eur/Usd rebounds to circa 1.0750, but still well below Macron victory high. * Pound* loses Fib support on the way through 1.2800 and sub-8400 vs Dollar and Euro respectively.
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FIXED INCOME Debt futures firm as risk appetite wanes, but bonds fade beyond 154.50 in Bunds, 119.00 in Gilts and 119-25 in the 10 year T-note. * Core EZ bonds lose momentum after German Ifo survey beats and irrespective of less encouraging accompanying statements. * French OATs* off peak within 147.38-146.28 range posted on confirmation of Macron defeating Le Pen to retain Presidency. * European Commission sells EUR 2.499bln (exp. EUR 2.500bln) 0.4% 2037 NGEU; b/c 2.05x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 1.626% (prev. 0.375%).
Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent June contacts have continued to decline since the resumption of futures trading. * Spot gold has been caged to a near-USD 5/oz range since the European open as the impact of a firming Buck negated the effects of lower yields at the time. * Base metals*s are in a sea of red as China's lockdown woes hit the demand side of the equation – with LME aluminium and zinc the laggards at the time of writing.
Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- German government raises 2022 CPI forecast to 6.1% (vs 3.3% in prior forecast), according to a document cited by Reuters; sees 2023 CPI at 2.8%, via Reuters.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
- German Ifo Expectations New (Apr) 86.7 vs. Exp. 83.5 (Prev. 85.1, Rev. 84.9)
- German Ifo Curr Conditions New (Apr) 97.2 vs. Exp. 95.8 (Prev. 97.0, Rev. 97.1)
- German Ifo Business Climate New (Apr) 91.8 vs. Exp. 89.1 (Prev. 90.8)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- French President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%, while Le Pen conceded defeat after the initial projections, according to Reuters and Sky News.
- ECB President Lagarde commented that interest rate hikes will not lower energy prices, according to Barron’s.
- ECB policymakers are said to be keen to finish bond purchases as soon as possible and possibly hike rates in July but no later than August, while they are leaning towards two rate moves this year with three also a possibility, according to Reuters sources. However, an ECB spokesperson declined to comment on the timing of ending bond purchases and potential interest rate increases.
- The EU is said to prepare the creation of a new trade and tech council with India, according to FT sources. The new forum could be unveiled on Monday during the European Commission President’s visit to India.
- The EU will aggressively police online content from Big Tech platforms such as Google (GOOG) and Meta’s Facebook (FB), according to the FT
CRYPTO Bitcoin* continued to tumble alongside the broader crypto market. * Coinbase (COIN) has resolved an issue where customers had troubles accessing accounts.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks traded negatively after last Friday's stock rout on Wall Street with risk sentiment hampered by holiday closures, China's COVID-19 woes and as participants brace for a busy week of key earnings releases. * Nikkei 225 shed around 500 points with sentiment not helped by several earnings guidance downgrades and with Nissan shares were hit as alliance partner Renault mulls selling a partial stake in the Japanese automaker. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* underperformed on the COVID situation after daily deaths in Shanghai rose again and with the city to conduct another round of mass testing, while Beijing also scrambles to contain an outbreak with its Chaoyang district to require residents and workers to undergo three COVID-19 tests this week.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln through 7-day reverse repos on Sunday with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 10bln net injection, while it injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.4909 vs exp. 6.4873 (prev. 6.4596)
- PBoC will hold a meeting with 12 property firms regarding the disposal of non-performing assets, according to Re
- Some Chinese state banks including Bank of China (3988 HK) and Bank of Communications (3328 HK) will reduce their deposit rate ceilings on Monday, according to Reuters sources.
- Shanghai reported 2,472 (prev. 1,401) new symptomatic cases and 16,983 (prev. 19,657) new asymptomatic cases and 51 (prev. 39) new COVID-19 related deaths for April 24th. Beijing City reports 29 cases on April 25th (vs 22 reportedly on April 24th).
- Beijing’s Chaoyang district will require residents and workers to undergo three COVID tests this week, while Beijing ordered residents in a specific COVID-affected area in Chaoyang not to leave the area, according to Reuters.
- Foxconn (2354 TT) suspended output at two factories in China's eastern city of Kunshan which is said to put Apple's (AAPL) China supply chain on edge, according to SCMP.
- Japanese Finance Ministry spokesman denied Finance Minister Suzuki and Treasury Secretary Yellen discussed a joint currency intervention, according to Reuters.
- APAC stocks traded negatively after last Friday's stock rout on Wall Street; S&P 500 posted its worst day since March 7th.
- Ukraine offered Russia a special round of talks to be held in Mariupol.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -1.7% after the cash market closed lower by 2.2% on Friday.
- DXY strengthened amid the overnight risk-aversion, antipodeans lag, EUR gains fleeting vs. USD post-election.
- French President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, Speech from ECB’s Panetta, Earnings from Activision Blizzard, Coca-Cola, Vivendi & JD Sports.
US TRADE SPX -2.72% at 4,274, NDX -2.65% at 13,356, DJIA -2.82% at 33,811, R2K -2.54% at 1,940. * US stocks* declined on Friday as growth woes and hawkish CBs saw the S&P's worst day since March 7th and the Dow's largest loss since 2020.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid and be more receptive to a deal with the sides meeting on Sunday to discuss the proposal. It was separately reported that Twitter is facing increasing shareholder pressure to negotiate with Elon Musk in his takeover bid and that the Co. is in talks with Elon Musk in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, according to WSJ.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Russian President Putin has dropped hopes for a Ukraine deal and shifted to a land-grab strategy, according to FT.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he sought talks with Russian President Putin because discussions via negotiators will not achieve the desired result, while Zelensky said that he wants to end the war, but Ukraine will abandon talks if Russia destroys “our people” in Mariupol and conducts “pseudo-referendums” to create “pseudo-republics” in occupied areas, according to Reuters. Zelensky also commented that Ukrainian forces will retake everywhere Russia occupies and key questions in negotiations with Russia are the Donbas and Crimea.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said they expect concrete things and weapons when asked about talks with US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defence Austin in Kyiv, while Ukraine wants the US to be one of its security guarantors, according to Reuters.
- US State Department senior official said Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin met with Ukrainian President Zelensky and said US diplomats will return to Ukraine in the coming week beginning in Lviv but will eventually return to Kyiv. Furthermore, the US will provide more than USD 713mln in new foreign military financing for Ukraine and 15 other nations in central and eastern Europe, while the new funding will help Ukraine fight Russia's renewed offensive in the east and south of the country, as well as transition to more advanced weapons and air defence systems, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovych said Russia was unsuccessful in new attempts to storm several towns in Ukraine’s Luhansk region and that Ukraine offered Russia a special round of talks to be held in Mariupol to discuss an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian corridors in Mariupol, as well as freeing or swapping all Ukrainian forces trapped there for Russian POWs.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he spoke with Turkish President Erdogan ahead of the latter’s talks with Russian President Putin and stressed the need for an evacuation of Mariupol civilians and exchange of soldiers at Azovstal. Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey is prepared to provide all assistance during the negotiation process and that the evacuation of the wounded and civilians in Mariupol must be ensured, according to Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak urged Russia to agree to a faster Easter truce in Mariupol, while he noted Russia is continuously attacking Mariupol’s Azovstal and is shelling with heavy air bombs and artillery, according to Reuters.
- Russian Defence Ministry official accused the US of preparing provocations to accuse Russia of using biological, chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine in response to the successes of the Russian military operation, according to TASS.
- UK PM Johnson confirmed in a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky that the UK is providing more defensive military assistance which includes protected mobility vehicles, drones and anti-tank weapons, according to Reuters.
- UK Ministry of Defence said Ukraine repelled numerous Russian assaults along the line of contact in Donbas during the past week and that Ukrainian resistance has been strong despite Russia making some territorial gains. UK Ministry of Defence also said Russia is planning a staged referendum in the southern Ukraine city of Kherson aimed at justifying its occupation with the city key to Russia's objective of establishing a land bridge to Crimea and dominating southern Ukraine.
SANCTIONS/ENERGY
- US is said to have withheld personal sanctions against Russian President Putin’s alleged girlfriend Alina Kabaeva who is the mother of at least three of his children, as it viewed this as an escalatory move but will keep the option on the table with the action saved for maximum pressure, according to WSJ.
- EU is preparing “smart sanctions” against Russian oil imports designed to minimise economic damage to the European economy, according to The Times citing a senior Brussels official.
- EU's Borrell said there is insufficient support by EU member states for a complete embargo or punitive tariffs on Russian energy imports, according to Die Welt.
FUND/PAYMENTS/OTHER
- Russia is switching to national currency payments with Azerbaijan and Armenia as part of measures to minimise risks from western sanctions, according to the Foreign Ministry cited by Sputnik.
OTHER Russia said it is to deploy its first unit of nuclear-capable Sarmat missiles by Autumn, according to Tass. * Turkey closed its airspace to Russian planes flying to Syria, according to Foreign Minister Cavusoglu. * Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a foreign ship carrying 200k litres of smuggled fuel, according to Fars. * Israeli military announced a projectile fired from Lebanon at Israel hit an open area, while Israel later fired at targets in Lebanon, according to Reuters. * Yemeni Houthis made a new offer to the UN including the release of 200 prisoners from each of the warring sides before Eid Al-Fitr*, according to Al-Masirah TV.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks traded negatively after last Friday's stock rout on Wall Street with risk sentiment hampered by holiday closures, China's COVID-19 woes and as participants brace for a busy week of key earnings releases. * Nikkei 225 shed around 500 points with sentiment not helped by several earnings guidance downgrades and with Nissan shares were hit as alliance partner Renault mulls selling a partial stake in the Japanese automaker. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed on the COVID situation after daily deaths in Shanghai rose again and with the city to conduct another round of mass testing, while Beijing also scrambles to contain an outbreak with its Chaoyang district to require residents and workers to undergo three COVID-19 tests this week. * US equity futures remained subdued after Wall St recently suffered its worst performance since early March. * European equity futures* are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -1.7% after the cash market closed lower by 2.2% on Friday.
FX DXY strengthened as risk-off conditions helped the DXY pare early losses and hold above the 101.00 level, but with gains limited amid softer yields and light news flow from the US with the Fed already in a blackout period. * EUR/USD initially gained after French President Macron’s election victory and a hawkish ECB source report, although it failed to sustain the momentum and gave up the 1.0800 handle against the greenback. * GBP/USD extended on last Friday’s data-triggered losses to test the 1.2800 level to the downside. * USD/JPY is rangebound but JPY crosses were pressured due to the haven flows. * Antipodeans* were lacklustre amid holiday closures and declines in commodity prices, while the PBoC also continued to weaken its reference rate in which it set the weakest CNY fix since last August.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures extended above 119.00 as yields eased amid the broad risk aversion. * Bunds were also firmer overnight with price action helped by a haven bid. * 10yr JGBs* gained as the BoJ continued its special fixed-rate operations for unlimited JGBs.
COMMODITIES Crude futures fell as China's COVID-19 woes stoked demand concerns with WTI crude below USD 100/bbl. * Libya’s NOC said the Zawiya oil refinery was subject to varying damages due to armed clashes on Friday evening and that 29 sites including oil derivatives tanks and several other tanks in the Zawiya oil refinery were damaged, according to Reuters. * Spot gold traded marginally lower amid a firmer greenback. * Copper* was pressured amid declines across risk assets and underperformance in its largest purchaser China.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were lacklustre and marginally extended on a retreat beneath 40,000.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln through 7-day reverse repos on Sunday with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 10bln net injection, while it injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.4909 vs exp. 6.4873 (prev. 6.4596)
- Some Chinese state banks including Bank of China (3988 HK) and Bank of Communications (3328 HK) will reduce their deposit rate ceilings on Monday, according to Reuters sources.
- Shanghai reported 2,472 (prev. 1,401) new symptomatic cases and 16,983 (prev. 19,657) new asymptomatic cases and 51 (prev. 39) new COVID-19 related deaths for April 24th.
- Beijing’s Chaoyang district will require residents and workers to undergo three COVID tests this week, while Beijing ordered residents in a specific COVID-affected area in Chaoyang not to leave the area, according to Reuters.
- Foxconn (2354 TT) suspended output at two factories in China's eastern city of Kunshan which is said to put Apple's (AAPL) China supply chain on edge, according to SCMP.
- Japanese Finance Ministry spokesman denied Finance Minister Suzuki and Treasury Secretary Yellen discussed a joint currency intervention, according to Reuters.
UK/EUNOTABLE HEADLINES
- French President Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%, while Le Pen conceded defeat after the initial projections, according to Reuters and Sky News.
- ECB President Lagarde commented that interest rate hikes will not lower energy prices, according to Barron’s.
- ECB policymakers are said to be keen to finish bond purchases as soon as possible and possibly hike rates in July but no later than August, while they are leaning towards two rate moves this year with three also a possibility, according to Reuters sources. However, an ECB spokesperson declined to comment on the timing of ending bond purchases and potential interest rate increases.
- The EU is said to prepare the creation of a new trade and tech council with India, according to FT sources. The new forum could be unveiled on Monday during the European Commission President’s visit to India.
- The EU will aggressively police online content from Big Tech platforms such as Google (GOOG) and Meta’s Facebook (FB), according to the FT
DATA RECAP
- UK Rightmove House Prices (Apr) MM 1.6% (Prev. 1.7%)
- UK Rightmove House Prices (Apr) YY 9.9% (Prev. 10.4%)
- Equities are pressured across the board with Europe reacting to hawkish Central Bank commentary and the subsequent subdued APAC/Wall St. handover
- US futures are modestly softer after pivoting contained APAC parameters, today is the last day before Fed blackout
- DXY continues to climb printing fresh YTD highs while Cable slips to YTD lows after retail sales; broader FX is lower but magnitudes slimmer, high-betas lag
- Core debt continues to slip, albeit off worst levels, as yields remain elevated, and a flattening bias remains
- WTI and Brent are pressured in tandem with broader price action, USD strength and sources pointing to a China demand shock
- Russia aims for full control of Donbass and southern Ukraine, alongside pointing towards the Transnistria region of Moldova
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, Speech from ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from American Express & Verizon
LOOKING AHEAD* US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, Speech from ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from American Express & Verizon. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia rejected a proposal for an Easter truce, according to Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian army says "We plan to take full control of Donbass and southern Ukraine as part of the second phase of military operations", via Sky News Arabia.
- Russian military says control of the south of Ukraine will present Russia another gateway to breakaway the Transnistria region of Moldova, according to Tass.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- Sputnik tweeted that US Congress is preparing dozens of draft bills related to new sanctions on Russia.
- Ukrainian Defence Minister calls for a comprehensive embargo on Russian oil and gas and real sanctions on its banking system, via Al Jazeera.
OTHER North Korean Leader Kim exchanged letters with South Korean President Moon and thanked Moon in the letter for efforts to improve ties, according to KCNA. Furthermore, North Korean Leader Kim said joint inter-Korean agreements were unremovable, while Moon expressed hopes for a swift restart in US-North Korean talks*.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, following APAC/Wall St. pressure amid hawkish Central Bank rhetoric. * The FTSE 100 is the relative outperformer, but still negative, given favourable currency dynamics given broad USD strength and weak Retail Sales. * Stateside, futures are modestly softer after spending much of the APAC session near the unchanged mark, ES* -0.4%, moving in sympathy with EZ action and pre-PMIs. Note, today is the last day of potential Fed speak before the blackout period for May's gathering commences; no Fed officials scheduled. * Click here for more detail.
FX Sterling slides to bottom of G10 pile as UK retail sales data misses consensus by a distance and two out of three preliminary PMIs fall short of expectations, Cable hits new 2022 low circa 1.2865, EUR/GBP approaches 0.8400. * Non-US Dollars decline amidst general risk aversion and other bearish factors; AUD/USD hovering just above 0.7300, NZD/USD sube-0.6700 and USD/CAD over 1.2675 ahead of Canadian consumption and producer price data. * Euro fades irrespective of mostly stronger than forecast flash Eurozone PMIs as ECB President Lagarde tones down hawkish vibes, EUR/USD probes 1.0800. * Yen holds up better than other majors after more concerted effort by Japan’s Finance Minister to curb rapid moves via confirmation that he is in close contact with US Treasury Secretary about currency developments, USD/JPY capped below 129.00. * Yuan set for weakest week since devaluation seven years ago with PBoC Governor Li pledging policy stimulus for the real economy that is suffering from Covid contagion; USD/CNH through 6.5250. * ECB President Lagarde told policymakers to refrain from airing dissenting views on decisions for several days, according to Reuters sources. * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said he confirmed with US Treasury Secretary Yellen that US and Japan will communicate closely on FX and discussed with Yellen the recent market developments, in particular, USD/JPY moves, while he explained to Yellen recent JPY declines are rapid, according to Reuters. * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki and US Treasury Secretary Yellen likely discussed coordinated currency intervention during bilateral talks, according to TBS News citing a Japanese government source which noted the US side sounded as if it will consider the idea of joint FX intervention positively*. * BoC Governor Macklem said the March inflation report shows supply disruptions are not easing and noted they will not rule anything out regarding the rate hike path, according to Reuters. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- EUR/USD: 1.0700 (814M), 1.0825 (398M), 1.0850 (760M), 1.0900 (1.46BN), 1.0925-30 (550M), 1.0950 (491M)
- USD/CAD: 1.2500 (694M), 1.2540-50 (1.0BN), 1.2580-85 (530M)
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Bonds on track to rack up more weekly losses with Bunds down to 153.10 at worst, Gilts hitting 117.22 and 10 year T-note 118-08. * Benchmark yields still targeting or touching psychological levels, like 1.0% in Germany, 2.0% and 3.0% in the UK and US respectively. * Curves retain flatter bias* and debt could yet derive traction from pre-weekend position squaring plus asset reallocation as equities dump. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are pressured in tandem with broader price action, USD strength and sources pointing to a China demand shock. * China is said to face the biggest oil demand shock since early 2020, according to Bloomberg sources. * Currently, WTI and Brent have recovered marginally from session lows of USD 101.22/bbl and USD 105.80/bbl, respectively. * Spot gold* and silver are also hindered on the USD move, yellow metal continues to fall away from the USD 1950/oz mark (low, USD 1941/oz; high USD 1955.60/oz). * Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK is readying to give ministers the power to scrap the Northern Ireland Brexit trade deal, while it was also reported that PM Johnson is to order a further delay of border checks on imports from the EU, according to FT
- UK PM Johnson answered 'yes' when asked if Chancellor Sunak will remain the Chancellor after an expected cabinet reshuffle later this year, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr) -38 vs. Exp. -33 (Prev. -31), GfK said UK consumers' personal finances expectations component declined to a record low.
- UK Retail Sales MM (Mar) -1.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%); YY (Mar) 0.9% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 7.0%). Petrol sales volumes fall, some data indicates non-essential road travel reduced due to higher prices.
- EU S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Apr) 55.8 vs. Exp. 53.9 (Prev. 54.9); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Apr) 55.3 vs. Exp. 54.7 (Prev. 56.5); Services Flash PMI (Apr) 57.7 vs. Exp. 55.0 (Prev. 55.6)
- German S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Apr) 54.5 vs. Exp. 54.1 (Prev. 55.1); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Apr) 54.1 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 56.9); Services Flash PMI (Apr) 57.9 vs. Exp. 55.5 (Prev. 56.1)
- UK Flash Composite PMI (Apr) 57.6 vs. Exp. 59.0 (Prev. 60.9); Services PMI (Apr) 58.3 vs. Exp. 60.0 (Prev. 62.6); Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 55.3 vs. Exp. 54.0 (Prev. 55.2)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Nomura forecasts the Fed to hike rates by 50bps in May and by 75bps each at the June and July meetings.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* lost the USD 40k mark in APAC trade and while it is still negative on the session it has staged a modest recovery from USD 39.8k lows.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were negative on spillover selling from Wall St with risk sentiment sapped amid higher yields and hawkish central bank commentary. * ASX 200 declined as tech suffered from higher yields and with miners subdued by OZ Mineral's weak output. * Nikkei 225 underperformed as the optimism from incoming relief faded on the hawkish central bank views. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* weakened amid large losses in Hong Kong's tech stocks and with sentiment not helped by the US adding another 17 firms to its SEC list for possible delisting.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.4596 vs exp. 6.4641 (prev. 6.4098)
- PBoC Governor Yi said COVID put more pressure on China's economy and they will provide policy support for the real economy. Yi noted monetary policy will focus on supporting small firms and sectors hit by COVID. They will keep an accommodative and steady policy, and are ready to unveil more policy steps, according to Reuters.
- China's State Council Financial Committee hosted a meeting on Friday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) vows to ensure the stable and healthy operation of the capital market, via Bloomberg.
- China's securities regulator urged institutional investors to buy more domestic shares during a meeting on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
- China's FX regulator says recent Yuan volatility is mostly due to global market fluctuations and demand/supply changes, expects Yuan to be basically stable at reasonably balanced levels. Will increase FX flexibility, via Reuters.
- Shanghai government said the city's lockdown will be lifted in batches once zero-covid at community level is reached and that normal life will return soon as long as policy is adhered to, while it will conduct daily city-wide testing, according to Reuters.
- Hong Kong government is set to scale back on the flight suspension threshold to ease restrictions that have crippled air travel, according to SCMP.
- Japan's relief package draft stated gasoline subsidies for wholesalers will increase to JPY 35/litre from JPY 25/litre and they will submit extra budget in the current parliament session to replenish reserves and fund spending to soften impact from rising prices. It also noted they must be vigilant to the impact of JPY's declines could have on households and importers, while they will compile another comprehensive relief package after outlining the long-term economic and fiscal policy in June, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese National CPI YY (Mar) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Mar) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Mar) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -1.0%)
- APAC stocks were negative on spillover selling from Wall St with risk sentiment sapped amid higher yields.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia rejected a proposal for an Easter truce, according to Reuters.
- European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -1.8% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY hovers around the 100.50 mark, antipodeans lag, EUR and JPY lead in the G10 space.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, UK Retail Sales, Canadian Retail Sales, Speech from ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from Renault, SAP, American Express & Verizon.
US TRADE SPX -1.44% at 4,395, NDX -1.99% at 13,720, DJIA -1.05% at 34,792, R2K -2.30% at 1,991. * US stocks* finished lower after reversing the initial strength as bond selling took the reins. * Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Powell said the US economy is a bit more remote from the effects of the war and will feel upward inflation effects, while he added it is appropriate to move a little more quickly and a 50bps hike will be on the table for the May FOMC meeting. Powell wants to see actual progress on inflation coming down and had expected inflation would peak around this time. Powell also stated they are going to be raising rates expeditiously to more neutral and then to tighter policy if appropriate, according to Reuters.
- Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) said the Fed is behind the curve and will not have a hard landing, while inflation expectations threaten to become unmoored. Bullard suggested the Fed isn't as far behind the curve as thought and noted that 75bps hikes have been done and the world has not come to an end, according to Reuters.
- Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said they will likely be raising rates by 50 bps at a couple of Fed meetings and will deliberate with colleagues whether they require rate hikes of 25bps, 50bps or 75bps, according to a Yahoo Finance interview. Daly reiterated the Fed needs to take a measured pace on rate hikes and get rates up to 2.5% by year-end, while it is an open question how far rates may need to rise above 2.5%.
- Fed’s Evans (2023 voter) is to retire in early 2023, according to the Chicago Fed.
- Nomura forecasts the Fed to hike rates by 50bps in May and by 75bps each at the June and July meetings.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia rejected a proposal for an Easter truce, according to Reuters.
- US Defense Secretary Austin said they will host some counterparts in Ramstein Air Base next week on the Ukraine crisis, according to the Pentagon.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- US State Department said it understands Ukraine's forces continue to hold their ground in Mariupol, according to Reuters.
SANCTIONS/ENERGY
- Sputnik tweeted that US Congress is preparing dozens of draft bills related to new sanctions on Russia.
FUND/DIPLOMATIC/OTHER
- White House adviser Singh said Chinese enterprises and banks are generally cautious and avoid assisting Russia in evading sanctions. Singh added that China has a serious interest in being viewed as a responsible stakeholder on the world stage, while the US will play the long game with India and sees opportunities to help India diversify sources of energy and defence equipment, according to Reuters.
OTHER US said if Iran wants sanctions lifting that goes past the nuclear deal, it must address US concerns that go past that and stated that under any return to a nuclear deal, the US will aggressively use its powerful tools to counter Iran's Revolutionary Guards, according to Reuters. * North Korean Leader Kim exchanged letters with South Korean President Moon and thanked Moon in the letter for efforts to improve ties, according to KCNA. Furthermore, North Korean Leader Kim said joint inter-Korean agreements were unremovable, while Moon expressed hopes for a swift restart in US-North Korean talks*.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were negative on spillover selling from Wall St with risk sentiment sapped amid higher yields and hawkish central bank commentary. * ASX 200 declined as tech suffered from higher yields and with miners subdued by OZ Mineral's weak output. * Nikkei 225 underperformed as the optimism from incoming relief faded on the hawkish central bank views. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp weakened amid large losses in Hong Kong's tech stocks and with sentiment not helped by the US adding another 17 firms to its SEC list for possible delisting. * US equity futures remained subdued after yesterday's heavy selling pressure. * European equity futures* are indicative of a lower open with Eurostoxx 50 -1.8% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday.
FX DXY was rangebound but held on to most of the prior day’s gains that were spurred by the risk aversion, upside in yields and hawkish Fed commentary in which both Powell and Daly added credence to the 50bps hike view for May. * EUR/USD languished after yesterday's brief round way trip to the 1.0900 territory which was instigated by ECB’s de Guindos. * GBP/USD was subdued on a 1.30 handle following yesterday's comments from BoE's Mann. * USD/JPY hit resistance at Thursday’s highs and retreated on reports that Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki and US Treasury Secretary Yellen likely discussed coordinated currency intervention during bilateral talks. * Antipodeans extended on losses due to the risk aversion and after the PBoC continued to weaken the CNY fix. * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said he confirmed with US Treasury Secretary Yellen that US and Japan will communicate closely on FX and discussed with Yellen the recent market developments, in particular, USD/JPY moves, while he explained to Yellen recent JPY declines are rapid, according to Reuters. * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki and US Treasury Secretary Yellen likely discussed coordinated currency intervention during bilateral talks, according to TBS News citing a Japanese government source which noted the US side sounded as if it will consider the idea of joint FX intervention positively*. * BoC Governor Macklem said the March inflation report shows supply disruptions are not easing and noted they will not rule anything out regarding the rate hike path, according to Reuters.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were pressured as yields continued to edge higher, led by the front-end, amid the aggressive Fed views and with both the 10yr yield and 30yr yields approaching closer towards 3%. * Bunds remained subdued by the hawkish ECB rhetoric in which de Guindos touted the potential for a July hike. * 10yr JGBs* conformed to the lacklustre picture despite the BoJ’s special operation for unlimited JGBs which had been flagged earlier in the week and after yesterday’s operation received no takers.
COMMODITIES Crude futures were indecisive but eventually weakened alongside the lacklustre mood across risk assets. * OPEC said oil price increase is largely because of geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe and concerns it may lead to supply shortage, according to Reuters. * US energy department said contracts have been awarded for 30mln bbls from SPR and scheduled to deliver 50mln bbls in May and June, according to Reuters. * Spot gold traded flat with overnight price action contained by the uneventful greenback. * Copper* was subdued amid the broad risk-aversion.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices traded relatively flat around the 40,500 level.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.4596 vs exp. 6.4641 (prev. 6.4098)
- PBoC Governor Yi said COVID put more pressure on China's economy and they will provide policy support for the real economy. Yi noted monetary policy will focus on supporting small firms and sectors hit by COVID. They will keep an accommodative and steady policy, and are ready to unveil more policy steps, according to Reuters.
- China's securities regulator urged institutional investors to buy more domestic shares during a meeting on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
- Shanghai government said the city's lockdown will be lifted in batches once zero-covid at community level is reached and that normal life will return soon as long as policy is adhered to, while it will conduct daily city-wide testing, according to Reuters.
- Hong Kong government is set to scale back on the flight suspension threshold to ease restrictions that have crippled air travel, according to SCMP.
- Japan's relief package draft stated gasoline subsidies for wholesalers will increase to JPY 35/litre from JPY 25/litre and they will submit extra budget in the current parliament session to replenish reserves and fund spending to soften impact from rising prices. It also noted they must be vigilant to the impact of JPY's declines could have on households and importers, while they will compile another comprehensive relief package after outlining the long-term economic and fiscal policy in June, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese National CPI YY (Mar) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Mar) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Mar) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -1.0%)
UK/EUNOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE Governor Bailey said UK's inflation shock has more in common with the eurozone than the US. Bailey said they must ask if the series of price shocks are affecting inflation expectations and that the scale of real income shock will result in a slowdown in UK growth, while he added the inflation target is going through its most extreme test since it was made, according to Reuters.
- UK is readying to give ministers the power to scrap the Northern Ireland Brexit trade deal, while it was also reported that PM Johnson is to order a further delay of border checks on imports from the EU, according to FT
- UK PM Johnson answered 'yes' when asked if Chancellor Sunak will remain the Chancellor after an expected cabinet reshuffle later this year, according to Reuters.
- ECB's Lagarde said the June meeting is key for the end of APP and potential rate path, while she noted that euro-area inflation numbers are "very high" and inflation will be more than double target at year-end, according to Reuters.
- Ipsos-Sopra Steria French Election Poll sees Macron winning at 57.5% vs Le Pen, up from 56.5% on Wednesday.
DATA RECAP
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence* (Apr) -38 vs. Exp. -33 (Prev. -31), GfK said UK consumers' personal finances expectations component declined to a record low.
- European bourses and US futures are bolstered, ES +0.8%, with currency dynamics lifting EZ bourses and after-market earnings assisting, TSLA +7%
- DXY is pressured amid EUR advances following ECB’s de Guindos saying a July hike is possible, also sparked noted debt downside
- More broadly, FX sees some divergence ahead of multiple Central Bank speakers and after various inflation releases
- WTI and Brent are firmer, but off best levels, amid multiple Ukraine-Russia and China COVID developments, with the China restrictions seemingly set to remain
- Russian Defence Ministry says it has captured Mariupol, while the Kremlin says talks are ongoing
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey & Mann. Earnings from American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris.
As of 11:15BST/06:15ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US IJC & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey & Mann. Earnings from American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Swedish Riksdag is today to debate new security policy proposals, NATO will be among those, the date for the subsequent reports submissions has been brought forward from end-May to May 13th, via Aftonbladet.
- Russia has declared persona non grata for employees of Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian consulates, which are to be closed in the country, via Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russia has captured Mariupol, according to the Defence Ministry informing President Putin, via Reuters citing Ifx; still over 2k Ukrainian fighters in the Azovstal plant.
- Russian President Putin has ordered a cancellation of plans to storm the industrial facilities in Mariupol, no need to storm the facility, via Reuters; has ordered that facilities will be blocked so that not even a fly could pass unnoticed.
- Subsequently, Ukraine Deputy PM demands that Russia allows a humanitarian corridor for civilians in Azovstal.
- UK PM Johnson said Russian President Putin made it clear that he wants to take more territory in Ukraine and could launch another assault on Kyiv, while he added the best way world leaders can respond is by continuing to arm Ukraine. UK PM Johnson reportedly compared Russian President Putin to a crocodile and said that a negotiated peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be very hard, according to Reuters.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- G7 Finance Ministers said they regret participation by Russia in international forums including G20, IMF and World Bank meetings this week, while they are strongly committed to not conducting government-to-government financial transactions with Russia, according to Reuters.
- China's State Energy firms are said to be in discussions for Shell's (SHEL LN) Russian LNG stake, according to Bloomberg sources
OTHER* The Russian tanker impounded by Greek authorities earlier this week is set to be released, according to a Reuters government source.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, upside that occurred alongside renewed EUR upside; potentially, on a stronger currency alleviating some imported-inflation pain. * However, the FTSE 100 -0.1% is the clear laggard in-spite of favourable GBP action with heavy-weight mining names pressured after Q1 production reports. * Stateside, US futures are firmer across the board, NQ +1.0%, following a strong TSLA*, +7% pre-market, report and ahead of commentary from Fed's Powell at two events. * Click here for more detail.
FX Euro outperforms as dovish-leaning ECB member de Guindos tilts towards July hike and markets factor in 75 bps tightening before year end; EUR/USD hits 1.0936 high after breaching series of tech resistance levels and huge option expiries between 1.0900-05 (3.3 bln). * Dollar rattled by Euro exertions and DXY loses 100.000+ status in response. * Loonie and Kiwi diverge after mixed Canadian and NZ inflation data in relation to consensus, USD/CAD sub-1.2500 where 1.36bln expiry interest resides and NZD/USD sub-0.6800. * Yen back under pressure as yields rebound markedly and BoJ continues efforts to impose YCT, while keeping verbal currency intervention trained on the pace rather than scale of moves, USD/JPY above 128.00. * Pound undermined by EUR/GBP rally through technical resistance awaiting BoE rhetoric, while Yuan extends losses after latest weaker CNY fix and comments from Chinese media citing factors that may lead to further depreciation; Cable capped into 1.3100 and cross up over 21 and 50 DMAs to circa 0.8367. * Rouble rebounds as CBR says it is contemplating FX controls, USD/RUB just under 80.0000. * China Securities Times noted the Yuan has room to decline* due to weaker exports, possible fund outflows from EM and faster rate increases by the Fed. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- EUR/USD: 1.0700 (920M), 1.0725 (347M), 1.0790-00 (1.1BN), 1.0875 (363M), 1.0900-05 (3.3BN), 1.0925 (478M), 1.0950 (232M)
- USD/CAD: 1.2500 (1.36BN), 1.2535 (230M), 1.2600-05 (290M), 1.2615-20 (315M), 1.2640-50 (745M)
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Bonds reverse course after latest correction from bear market territory, with Bunds, Gilts and 10 year T-note trying to stay on 154.00, 118.00 and 119-00 handles. * Eurozone debt hit by hawkish sounding remarks from usual ECB dove de Guindos to the effect that data may determine a July hike. * French OATs* hold up better than the rest after strong multi-tranche auction, on balance and Macron's outperformance during Presidential TV debate. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are firmer but off best levels and currently reside around the mid-point of USD 2.50/bbl ranges amid multiple pertinent updates. * Namely, Russian-Ukraine negotiations and Mariupol developments, though we await Western confirmation, and China's COVID situation with strict curbs seemingly set to remain. * Brazilian Oil Minister discussed raising oil output with the US amid the Ukraine crisis, while Brazil is willing to meet India's oil needs and wants Indian investment. Furthermore, the oil minister hopes oil prices stabilise below USD 100/bbl and said a high oil price is not good for producers and consumers, according to Reuters. * Peru is to declare a state of emergency to restore copper output at the Cuajone mine which was halted by protests in late February, according to Reuters. * Spot gold* has continued to slip below the USD 1950/oz mark losing the 21-DMA at USD 1947 ahead of potential 50-DMA support at USD 1936.05/oz. * Click here for more detail.
CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Wunsch says policy rates could turn positive this year, ready to consider a deposit rate hike in July. Would react to unwarranted market fragmentation, via Bloomberg * ECB's de Guindos says a rate hike is possible in July, will depend on data, via Bloomberg; no reason why APP cannot end in July, EZ inflation is close to peak, will slow in H2. Remarks which sparked a hawkish reaction in Euro-related assets * ECB's Lagarde* reiterates monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and the evolving assessment of the outlook. * CBR's Nabiullina says we will consider cutting the Key Rate at upcoming meetings; Moscow Exchange functioning at almost-normal mode. Adds, they are looking at FX controls.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK PM Johnson said he will fight the next election amid calls for him to step down due to the lockdown parties scandal and said he cannot think of any circumstances where he will resign, according to Reuters.
- UK Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency Rees-Mogg warned that the UK government is prepared to take unilateral action if the EU does not reform the Northern Ireland protocol, according to FT.
- French President Macron was viewed as more convincing in the TV debate by 59% of those surveyed, according to a BFM poll.
- ECB's Wunsch says policy rates could turn positive this year, ready to consider a deposit rate hike in July. Would react to unwarranted market fragmentation, via Bloomberg
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
- EZ CPI Final YY (Mar) 7.4% vs. Exp. 7.5% (Prev. 7.5%); MM (Mar) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Ex-Food & Energy Final YY (Mar) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%); Ex-Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco Final YY (Mar) 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* is firmer on the session but seemingly remains drawn to the USD 42k mark, in-spite of a brief foray above the figure.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and with focus turning to earnings season and quarterly activity updates. * ASX 200 traded higher but with upside limited by losses in tech following underperformance in the Nasdaq, while miners were also subdued after BHP reported flat quarterly iron ore production and lower petroleum output. * Nikkei 225 outperformed amid the BoJ's consecutive efforts to cap yields and with Japan's government preparing relief measures. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* were lacklustre as big tech suffered in Hong Kong and with sentiment dampened by COVID lockdowns, while attention was also on CNOOC's A-shares which surged as much as 44% in its Shanghai debut before being halted.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.4098 vs exp. 6.4134 (prev. 6.3996)
- Chinese President Xi said the global economic recovery is still weak and that they should guard against spillover effects from policy shifts in some countries. Xi said countries should abandon a Cold War mentality and avoid confrontation, while he opposes one-sided sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction. Xi added that decoupling, cutting off supply and pressure tactics by any country will not work, according to Reuters.
- Nomura lowered its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.3%, according to Bloomberg.
- Japan's ruling coalition parties are set to agree on compiling a fresh extra budget to fund relief measures, according to Kyodo; subsequently, Japan LDP official says PM Kishida said he'll order an extra budget compilation, details may be unveiled on Tuesday.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki says he explained to the G7 the recent and rather rapid moves in JPY. Added that rapid FX moves are undesirable and FX stability is important.
- China's Commerce Ministry expects consumption to continue to recover, to roll out targeted measures to increase consumption, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- New Zealand CPI QQ (Q1) 1.8% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.4%); YY (Q1) 6.9% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 5.9%)
- RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index YY (Q1) 4.2% (Prev. 3.2%, Rev 3.8%)
- APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers.
- Kyiv is ready to hold a special round of negotiations in Mariupol without conditions, according to Reuters.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 1.7% yesterday.
- DXY sits just below 100.50, USD/JPY is back on a 128 handle, NZD is softer post-CPI.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), US IJC & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey & Mann, Supply from France & Spain, Earnings from Meggitt, Nestle, American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris.
US TRADE SPX -0.05% at 4,459, NDX -1.49% at 13,998, DJIA +0.72% at 35,160, R2K +0.38% at 2,038. * US stocks* were mixed in which the SPX Equal-Weight (RSP) was up 70bps but the traditional index was flat, while Nasdaq suffered as Netflix (NFLX) shares dropped 35% after a woeful quarterly report.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said the case for a 50bps rate hike in May is now complete and that they can make an announcement on reducing the balance sheet as soon as May, while she added that increasing rates to 2.5% this year is not abrupt or surprising and there is a wide understanding it is appropriate, according to Reuters.
- Fed's Beige Book stated that inflationary pressures remained strong since the last report, with firms continuing to pass swiftly rising input costs through to customers.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian negotiator Podolyak said Kyiv is ready to hold a special round of negotiations in Mariupol without conditions, according to Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian Republic of Chechnya head Kadyrov said Russian forces will have complete control of Mariupol's Azovstal Steel Works on Thursday, according to Interfax.
- UK PM Johnson said Russian President Putin made it clear that he wants to take more territory in Ukraine and could launch another assault on Kyiv, while he added the best way world leaders can respond is by continuing to arm Ukraine. UK PM Johnson reportedly compared Russian President Putin to a crocodile and said that a negotiated peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be very hard, according to Reuters.
SANCTIONS/ENERGY
- US imposed further Russia related sanctions including on Russian commercial bank Transkapitalbank and Russia-based units of virtual currency mining firm Bitriver, according to Reuters.
- G7 Finance Ministers said they regret participation by Russia in international forums including G20, IMF and World Bank meetings this week, while they are strongly committed to not conducting government-to-government financial transactions with Russia, according to Reuters.
FUND/DIPLOMATIC/OTHER
- White House is resisting growing calls from US lawmakers, former diplomats and others to reopen the US Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, according to Politico.
- Russia's VTB Bank paid a coupon on its subordinated Dollar-denominated Eurobond in roubles and plans to pay other denominated Eurobonds in roubles, according to Interfax.
OTHER Pentagon said Russia notified the US ahead of its recent intercontinental ballistic missile test launch and the test was seen as routine with the launch handled according to procedures, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Russia’s space chief said the country's armed forces will begin taking delivery of the new Sarmat ICBM later this year*, according to Interfax.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and with focus turning to earnings season and quarterly activity updates. * ASX 200 traded higher but with upside limited by losses in tech following underperformance in the Nasdaq, while miners were also subdued after BHP reported flat quarterly iron ore production and lower petroleum output. * Nikkei 225 outperformed amid the BoJ's consecutive efforts to cap yields and with Japan's government preparing relief measures. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre as big tech suffered in Hong Kong and with sentiment dampened by COVID lockdowns, while attention was also on CNOOC's A-shares which surged as much as 44% in its Shanghai debut before being halted. * US equity futures were kept afloat as after-hours earnings from Tesla provided some solace from the recent woeful Netflix report. * European equity futures* are indicative of a slightly higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 1.7% yesterday.
FX DXY nursed losses and traded around 100.50 amid higher yields and after the latest Fed commentary. * EUR/USD retraced some of its recent gains that had been aided by the pullback in the dollar. * GBP/USD was rangebound with the pair oscillating around the 1.3050 mark. * USD/JPY rebounded overnight and reclaimed the 128.00 handle after the BoJ’s yield curve control efforts. * Antipodeans were lacklustre with NZD/USD pressured after softer than expected CPI data for Q1 despite the data showing the fastest pace of increase to inflation in 32 years, while CNY remained pressured after a weaker reference rate setting. * China Securities Times noted the Yuan has room to decline* due to weaker exports, possible fund outflows from EM and faster rate increases by the Fed.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures declined amid higher yields and a suggestion by Fed’s Daly that the case for a 50bps hike in May was complete. * Bunds continued to pull back after yesterday’s advance was stalled by resistance at the 155.00 level. * 10yr JGBs* were kept afloat amid the BoJ’s special operation for an unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs which it will conduct consecutively through to Tuesday.
COMMODITIES Crude futures gained after Brent and WTI crude recently rebounded off support at USD 105/bbl and USD 100/bbl, respectively. * Brazilian Oil Minister discussed raising oil output with the US amid the Ukraine crisis, while Brazil is willing to meet India's oil needs and wants Indian investment. Furthermore, the oil minister hopes oil prices stabilise below USD 100/bbl and said a high oil price is not good for producers and consumers, according to Reuters. * Spot gold was lacklustre around the USD 1950/oz level as the greenback firmed overnight. * Copper was rangebound with price action hampered amid the mixed risk tone and underperformance in China. * Peru is to declare a state of emergency to restore copper output at the Cuajone mine* which was halted by protests in late February, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were marginally higher and traded back above the 41,500 level.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.4098 vs exp. 6.4134 (prev. 6.3996)
- Chinese President Xi said the global economic recovery is still weak and that they should guard against spillover effects from policy shifts in some countries. Xi said countries should abandon a Cold War mentality and avoid confrontation, while he opposes one-sided sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction. Xi added that decoupling, cutting off supply and pressure tactics by any country will not work, according to Reuters.
- White House Economic Adviser Deese said they are focusing on concerns with China's state-sponsored approach and have done a rethink on China policy, according to Reuters.
- Nomura lowered its China 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.3%, according to Bloomberg.
- Japan's ruling coalition parties are set to agree on compiling a fresh extra budget to fund relief measures, according to Kyodo.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki says he explained to the G7 the recent and rather rapid moves in JPY. Added that rapid FX moves are undesirable and FX stability is important.
DATA RECAP
- New Zealand CPI QQ (Q1) 1.8% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.4%)
- New Zealand CPI YY (Q1) 6.9% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 5.9%)
- RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index YY (Q1) 4.2% (Prev. 3.2%, Rev 3.8%)
UK/EUNOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Johnson said he will fight the next election amid calls for him to step down due to the lockdown parties scandal and said he cannot think of any circumstances where he will resign, according to Reuters.
- UK Minister for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency Rees-Mogg warned that the UK government is prepared to take unilateral action if the EU does not reform the Northern Ireland protocol, according to FT.
- French President Macron was viewed as more convincing in the TV debate by 59% of those surveyed, according to a BFM poll.
- ECB's Wunsch says policy rates could turn positive this year, ready to consider a deposit rate hike in July. Would react to unwarranted market fragmentation, via Bloomberg
- European bourses and US futures were choppy at the commencement of the European session, but, have since derived impetus in relatively quiet newsflow amid multiple earnings and as yields continue to ease; ES Unch.
- NFLX lower by 26% in the pre-market as subscriber numbers fall; TSLA due after the close
- DXY continues to slip amid receding yields and a recovery in the JPY as the BoJ ramps up intervention to anchor 10yr yields
- Core debt is experiencing a resurgence from recent sessions of pressure with Bunds eclipsing yesterday’s peak, aided further by well-received issuance
- WTI and Brent reside at the top-end of USD 2/bbl parameters; focus very much on China-COVID, Iran, Libyan supply and Ukraine-Russia developments
- Russia has lost its confidence in the Ukrainian negotiators, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry while Ukraine announces a Mariupol corridor has been agreed
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, French Election TV Debate, Speeches from Fed's Daly & Evans and ECB's Nagel & Rehn Supply from the US, Earnings from Tesla, Abbott, Procter & Gamble and United Airlines.
As of 11:10BST/06:10ET
LOOKING AHEAD* Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, French Election TV Debate, Speeches from Fed's Daly & Evans and ECB's Nagel & Rehn Supply from the US, Earnings from Tesla, Abbott, Procter & Gamble and United Airlines. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukraine Deputy PM says a prelim. agreement has been achieved regarding a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol, via Reuters.
- Russia has lost its confidence in the Ukrainian negotiators, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry cited by NEXTA.
- Russian Kremlin says the ball is in Ukraine's court re. peace discussions, after Russia passed a document to them - says the pace of peace discussions leaves much to be desired, via Reuters. Would need to be a tangible reason for a Putin-Zelensky meeting.
- Bloomberg tweets "A small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning Putin's decision to go to war"; "They believe the Ukraine invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set Russia back for years."
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian troops seized the village of Kreminna in the separatist Luhansk region to claim the first ‘victory’ in its renewed offensive for Donbas, according to The Telegraph.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- US has increased pressure on China and India for refusing to join Western sanctions against Moscow and is threatening to punish businesses that provide services to Russian airlines flying to Beijing, Delhi and other destinations, according to the Nikkei.
- India is to increase its Russian oil purchases, according to Sputnik citing reports.
- Speaker of the Russia's Duma says European countries must compensate Russia for the losses incurred by their economy as a result of the sanctions, according to Al Jazeera.
- Latvian Foreign Minister says EU is preparing new measures against Russia to avoid Moscow evade sanctions, via Reuters.
OTHER US officials are to visit the Middle East this week to de-escalate Jerusalem tensions*, according to Sputnik.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses and US futures were choppy at the commencement of the European session, but, have since derived impetus in relatively quiet newsflow amid multiple earnings and as yields continue to ease; ES Unch.. * Currently, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.8%, while US futures are little changed on the session but rapidly approaching positive territory ahead of key earnings incl. TSLA. * Netflix Inc (NFLX) - Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 3.53 (exp. 2.89), Revenue 7.87bln (exp. 7.93bln), Net Subscriber Additions: -0.2mln (exp. +2.5mln). Q1 UCAN streaming paid net change -640k (exp.+87.5k). Co. lost 640k subscribers in US/Canada, 300k in EMEA, and 350k in LatAm. Co. Said macro factors, including sluggish economic growth, increasing inflation, geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and some continued disruption from COVID are likely having an impact, via PR Newswire. Click here for the full breakdown. -26% in the pre-market * Chinese Civil Aviation publishes prelim report looking into the China Eastern Airline crash*; still recovering and analysing damaged black boxes from the plane: there was no abnormal communication between air crew and air controllers before the aircraft deviated from cruising altitude; no dangerous weather, goods or overdue maintenance. * Click here for more detail.
FX Buck concedes ground to recovering Yen as US Treasury yields recede, USD/JPY over 150 pips below new 20 year high circa 129.42. * Yuan on the rocks after PBoC set a soft onshore reference rate and regardless of unchanged LPRs, USD/CNH eyes 6.4500 after breach of 200 DMA. * Aussie back in pole position as high betas benefit from Greenback retreat and Kiwi in second spot ahead of NZ CPI data; AUD/USD rebounds through 0.7400 and NZD/USD from under 0.6750. * Loonie also bouncing before Canadian inflation metrics, with Usd/Cad closer to 1.2550 than 1.2625, while Euro and Pound are both firmer on 1.0800 and 1.3000 handles respectively as DXY dips below 100.500. * Rand shrugs aside mixed SA CPI prints as correction from bull run continues and Gold slips under Usd 1950/oz, USD/ZAR holds above 15.0000. * ECB's Kazaks says a rate hike is possible as soon as July this year; ending APP early in Q3 is possible and appropriate; zero is not an a cap for the deposit rate*, via Bloomberg. Adds, a gradual approach does not mean a slow approach, do not need to wait for stronger wage growth. * CNB Governor Rusnok says cannot rule out further interest rate hikes but any moves will likely be cosmetic. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- EUR/USD: 1.0790 (422M), 1.0800-10 (1.2BN), 1.0875 (600M), 1.0930 (304M)
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Debt redemption, as futures retrace following tests/probes of cycle lows. * Lack of concession not really evident at longer-dated German and UK bond sales, but 20 year US supply may be a separate issue. * BoJ ramps up intervention and aims to anchor rather than cap 10 year JGB yield around zero percent, while BoA* suggests contra-trend position in 10 year UST to target 2.25% from current levels close to 3.0%. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are firmer on the session in what is more of a consolidation from yesterday's pressured settlement than a concerted effort to move higher, also benefitting from broader equity action. * Currently, WTI and Brent reside at the top-end of USD 2/bbl parameters; focus very much on China-COVID, Iran, Libyan supply and Ukraine-Russia developments. * US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.5mln (exp. +2.5mln), Cushing +0.1mln, Gasoline +2.9mln (exp. -1.0mln), Distillate -1.7mln (exp. -0.8mln). * Spot gold/silver* are contained at present but have seen bouts of modest pressure, including the loss of the USD 1946.45/oz 21-DMA at worst. * Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK government said the Competition and Markets Authority will be able to directly enforce consumer law and will have new powers to fine firms up to 10% of global revenue for mistreating customers, according to Reuters.
- UK plans to extend tariffs on glass fibre from China used in electric vehicles and wind turbine blades to protect the domestic market, according to SCMP.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Kashkari (2023 voter) said the economy may still be vulnerable to new COVID waves and that inflation is far too high, while he added the Fed's job will get harder and they will need to do more to bring inflation down if supply chains don't improve as he hopes, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden's administration will appeal the ruling against the CDC travel mask mandate, according to Bloomberg.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
CRYPTO Russia may consider using crypto in foreign trade*, according to Izvestia.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks eventually traded mostly positive after the firm handover from the US despite continued upside in yields. * ASX 200 was led by the healthcare sector as shares in Ramsay Health Care surged due to a takeover proposal from a KKR-led consortium, but with gains capped by miners after Rio Tinto's lower quarterly iron ore production and shipments. * Nikkei 225 was underpinned by the initial currency depreciation and with the BoJ defending its yield cap. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* were mixed with the mainland subdued after the PBoC defied expectations for a cut to its benchmark lending rates and instead maintained the 1yr and 5yr Loan Prime Rates at 3.70% and 4.60%, respectively.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3996 vs exp. 6.3853 (prev. 6.3720)
- PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (April) 3.70% vs. Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.70%)
- PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (April) 4.60% vs. Exp. 4.55% (Prev. 4.60%)
- PBoC said it is to step up financial support for COVID control, as well as smooth logistic and supply chains. PBoC added that it will make good use of financial policies to support the service sector, consumption investment and small firms. Furthermore, it will keep the property sector financing stable and orderly, while it will flexibly adjust mortgage payment plans for home buyers impacted by COVID-19, according to Reuters.
- Shanghai official said the epidemic situation in the city has shown a downtrend in recent days and that two districts achieved zero COVID at the community level. Furthermore, the number of people categorised in highest risk "sealed areas" has reduced significantly, although 11.9mln residents are still confined to their homes under lockdown measures, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.
- Japan is considering handouts to low-income households with children, according to Asahi.
- BoJ offers to buy an unlimited amount of 5yr-10yr JGBs at a fixed rate of 0.25%, after the 10yr JGB yield touched the BoJ's yield cap.
- BoJ is to conduct consecutive unlimited fixed-rate, 0.25%, purchase operations for JGBs; to purchase 10yr JGBs #364, #365 & #366 on April 21st, 22nd, 25th and 26th.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Mar) -412.4B vs. Exp. -100.8B (Prev. -668.3B, Rev. -669.7B)
- Japanese Exports YY (Mar) 14.7% vs. Exp. 17.5% (Prev. 19.1%)
- Japanese Imports YY (Mar) 31.2% vs. Exp. 28.9% (Prev. 34.0%, Rev. 34.1%)
- APAC stocks eventually traded mostly positive after the firm handover from the US which saw a solid performance for the NDX.
- The PBoC defied expectations for a cut to its benchmark lending rates.
- Netflix shares fell 26% after-hours as subscribers declined for the first time in over a decade.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% yesterday.
- The DXY rally has paused for breath as majors attempt to claw back lost ground with antipodeans leading the charge.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German PPI, EZ Industrial Production, Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, French Election TV Debate, Speeches from Fed's Daly & Evans, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from ASML, Carrefour, Danone, Heineken, Sandvik, Abbott, P&G and United Airlines
US TRADE SPX +1.63% at 4,463, NDX +2.15% at 14,210, DJIA +1.45% at 34,911, R2K +2.04% at 2,030. * US stocks* notched a solid performance with NDX and Russell 2k outperforming SPX and with Ukraine an afterthought to the bounce in housing data and lack-of-concerning macro commentary from corporates.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Evans (2023 voter) said there is good reason to think the economy will do very well even as rates rise and they could get to a 2.25-2.5% neutral rate by year-end if they were to do a couple of 50bps hikes. Evans said that if they do not see inflation coming down, they are going to raise rates above neutral and that the expectation is that they will need to raise rates above neutral, while he later stated that he doesn't see the need for larger than 50bp rate hikes, according to Reuters.
- Fed's Kashkari (2023 voter) said the economy may still be vulnerable to new COVID waves and that inflation is far too high, while he added the Fed's job will get harder and they will need to do more to bring inflation down if supply chains don't improve as he hopes, according to Reuters.
- Fed's Bostic (2024 voter) said it is important to get to a neutral rate (2-2.5%) expeditiously and that real wages are in retreat so there is a case to be made that they will not have to push as hard. Bostic added any action is possible although a larger 75bps hike is "not on the radar", while a cut to global growth is a sign the Fed needs to be cautious and a reason not to rush beyond neutral, according to CNBC.
- US President Biden's administration will appeal the ruling against the CDC travel mask mandate, according to Bloomberg.
- Netflix Inc (NFLX) - Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 3.53 (exp. 2.89), Revenue 7.87bln (exp. 7.93bln), Net Subscriber Additions: -0.2mln (exp. +2.5mln). Q1 UCAN streaming paid net change -640k (exp.+87.5k). Co. lost 640k subscribers in US/Canada, 300k in EMEA, and 350k in LatAm. Co. Said macro factors, including sluggish economic growth, increasing inflation, geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and some continued disruption from COVID are likely having an impact, via PR Newswire. Click here for the full breakdown. Shares fell 25.7% after-market
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINEDEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian troops seized the village of Kreminna in the separatist Luhansk region to claim the first ‘victory’ in its renewed offensive for Donbas, according to The Telegraph.
- Ukraine said Russia is hitting Mariupol's Azovstal factory with anti-bunker bombs, according to Reuters. However, Russia's Defence Ministry later said it will set a ceasefire in the area of Ukraine's Azovstal steel plant for April 20th, according to RIA.
- US senior official sees Russia carrying out a prelude to larger, expected offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. The official stated Russia is still adding to its military capabilities to prepare for the offensive, introducing two additional battalion tactical groups (BTG) in the past 24 hours, while about seven US flights of weapons are heading to Europe in the next 24 hours carrying weaponry for Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden said the US will send more artillery to Ukraine, while multiple sources also said President Biden is to announce another large military aid package for Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- German Chancellor Scholz said they will continue to finance Ukraine militarily and financially, while he noted that western leaders agreed they will have maximum support to Ukraine but not get involved in the war. Scholz added that they reached the limit of what they can deliver from the German armed force's own stocks but with their partners, will help provide long-range artillery to Ukraine, according to Reuters.
SANCTIONS/ENERGY
- White House said there could be new sanctions on Russia this week, according to Reuters.
- US Treasury issued a general license to allow certain transactions by sanctioned persons and financial institutions relating to NGO activities in Russia and Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- US has increased pressure on China and India for refusing to join Western sanctions against Moscow and is threatening to punish businesses that provide services to Russian airlines flying to Beijing, Delhi and other destinations, according to the Nikkei.
- India is to increase its Russian oil purchases, according to Sputnik citing reports.
- US President Biden is reportedly being urged by lawmaker Steve Cohen to impose a travel ban on UK lawyers that acted on behalf of Russian oligarchs attempting to silence investigative journalists, according to FT.
FUND/OTHER
- CBR eased FX currency controls measures for Russian export-focused companies excluding commodities and the energy sector.
- Saudi Arabia reportedly seemed to be leaning closer to the Kremlin over the Ukraine invasion, according to a Biden administration source in the WSJ.
OTHER US officials are to visit the Middle East this week to de-escalate Jerusalem tensions*, according to Sputnik.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks eventually traded mostly positive after the firm handover from the US despite continued upside in yields. * ASX 200 was led by the healthcare sector as shares in Ramsay Health Care surged due to a takeover proposal from a KKR-led consortium, but with gains capped by miners after Rio Tinto's lower quarterly iron ore production and shipments. * Nikkei 225 was underpinned by the initial currency depreciation and with the BoJ defending its yield cap. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland subdued after the PBoC defied expectations for a cut to its benchmark lending rates and instead maintained the 1yr and 5yr Loan Prime Rates at 3.70% and 4.60%, respectively. * US equity futures were pressured after Netflix shares fell 26% as subscribers declined for the first time in over a decade. * European equity futures* are indicative of a higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% yesterday.
FX DXY faded some of its recent advances after momentarily climbing above the 101.00 level and despite gains in yields. * EUR/USD found reprieve from the greenback's reversal and reclaimed the 1.0800 handle. * GBP/USD gained a firmer footing above 1.3000 after moving as low as 1.2981. * USD/JPY initially climbed above 129.00 before reversing course and which prompted further jawboning by officials. * Antipodeans benefitted from the softer greenback although briefly wobbled after the PBoC set the weakest CNY reference rate since November last year. * SNB Chairman Jordan said Swiss inflation expectations are well anchored but there could be some risk to price stability in Switzerland*. Jordan said the largest impact on price stability in Switzerland comes from energy prices and supply chain woes, while he added that a substantial amount of inflation today may be temporary, according to Reuters.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were somewhat choppy but ultimately extended declines as yields continued to move higher and which saw the 10yr treasury real yield turned positive for the first time since 2020. * Bunds remained subdued beneath 154.00 but moved off worse levels after support held at yesterday’s trough. * 10yr JGBs* pared some of their opening losses amid the BoJ’s presence in the market under its regular bond purchases and it also announced a special operation for unlimited JGBs at a fixed rate after the 10yr JGB yield rose to the 0.25% cap.
COMMODITIES Crude futures attempted to nurse some of their recent losses but with the recovery limited following IMF's global growth downgrades and improved supply backdrop out of Libya, while mixed private inventory data had little effect on prices. * US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.5mln (exp. +2.5mln), Cushing +0.1mln, Gasoline +2.9mln (exp. -1.0mln), Distillate -1.7mln (exp. -0.8mln). * Iraq said it is committed to OPEC+ oil increases, according to State News Agency. * Spot gold languished near the prior day's lows and failed to benefit from despite the dollar pullback. * Copper* remained lacklustre amid the ongoing lockdowns affecting its largest purchaser China.
CRYPTO Bitcoin prices were little changed and marginally softened below the 41,500 level. * Russia may consider using crypto in foreign trade*, according to Izvestia
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3996 vs exp. 6.3853 (prev. 6.3720)
- PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (April) 3.70% vs. Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.70%)
- PBoC 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (April) 4.60% vs. Exp. 4.55% (Prev. 4.60%)
- PBoC said it is to step up financial support for COVID control, as well as smooth logistic and supply chains. PBoC added that it will make good use of financial policies to support the service sector, consumption investment and small firms. Furthermore, it will keep the property sector financing stable and orderly, while it will flexibly adjust mortgage payment plans for home buyers impacted by COVID-19, according to Reuters.
- Shanghai official said the epidemic situation in the city has shown a downtrend in recent days and that two districts achieved zero covid at the community level. Furthermore, the number of people categorised in highest risk "sealed areas" has reduced significantly, although 11.9mln residents are still confined to their homes under lockdown measures, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.
- Japan is considering handouts to low-income households with children, according to Asahi.
- BoJ offers to buy an unlimited amount of 5yr-10yr JGBs at a fixed rate of 0.25%, after the 10yr JGB yield touched the BoJ's yield cap.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Mar) -412.4B vs. Exp. -100.8B (Prev. -668.3B, Rev. -669.7B)
- Japanese Exports YY (Mar) 14.7% vs. Exp. 17.5% (Prev. 19.1%)
- Japanese Imports YY (Mar) 31.2% vs. Exp. 28.9% (Prev. 34.0%, Rev. 34.1%)
UK/EU UK government said the Competition and Markets Authority will be able to directly enforce consumer law and will have new powers to fine firms up to 10% of global revenue for mistreating customers, according to Reuters. * UK plans to extend tariffs on glass fibre from China used in electric vehicles and wind turbine blades* to protect the domestic market, according to SCMP.
- European bourses and futures are negative across the board, ES -0.3%, as initial contained trade gave way under further yield advances, NQ -0.4% lags as such
- DXY remains above 100.00 but has swung between gains & losses as peers, ex-JPY, saw a shortlived pickup across the board
- USD/JPY has continued to climb taking out multiple barriers and disregarding commentary from officials, peaking just shy of 128.50
- Fixed income is significantly hampered with yields gapping higher and nearing 1.0%, 2.0% and 3.0% for Bunds, Gilts and USTs respectively
- WTI and Brent are pressured, moving with broader price action, though currently reside just off session lows
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that another stage of their operations has now commenced
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits & Housing Starts, IMF World Economic Outlook, Speech from Fed's Evans. Earnings from L'Oreal, Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix & IBM.
As of 11:15BST/06:15ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US Building Permits & Housing Starts, IMF World Economic Outlook, Speech from Fed's Evans. Earnings from L'Oreal, Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix & IBM. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukraine Deputy PM says no humanitarian corridors agreed for Tuesday, via Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russia's Belgorod provincial Governor said a village near the Ukrainian border was struck by Ukraine, according to RIA. However, Sputnik noted that no casualties were reported.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says another stage of its operation is beginning
- Russian Defence Ministry is calling on Ukrainian and foreign fighters to leave the metallurgical plant in Mauripol without arms and ammunition today, via Reuters; adding, the US and other Western countries do everything to drag out the Ukrainian military operation.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- White House said US President Biden will hold a call with allies and partners on Tuesday to discuss continued support for Ukraine and efforts to hold Russia accountable, according to Reuters.
- French Finance Minister Le Maire says an embargo on Russian oil is being worked on, adds that we have always said with President Macron that we want such an embargo, via Reuters; aims to convince the EU on such an embargo in the coming weeks.
- Russia's Gazprom has not booked gas transit capacity via Yamal-Europe pipeline for May.
OTHER Israel Defense Forces conducted strikes on Gaza following earlier rocket fire, according to Aurora Intel. * South Korean official said Russian and Chinese military aircrafts entered South Korea's air defence identification zone without prior notice last month ahead of North Korea's long-range missile launch, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korea expects North Korea to test-fire a guided weapon 'soon'*, according to DONG-A. * China's Vice Foreign Minister says we will continue to step up strategic coordination with Russia.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are negative on the session but were choppy and rangebound for much of the morning before dropping further amid renewed yield upside, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%. * Stateside, US futures have given up their initial positive performance and are now lower across the board, ES -0.3%, and the NQ -0.4% lags given yield action; session is focused on Fed speak and earnings with NFLX due. * Truist Financial Corp (TFC)* Q1 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.23 (exp. 1.10), Revenue 5.32bln (exp. 5.47bln) * Click here for more detail.
FX USD/JPY breezes through more option barriers and disregards more chat from Japanese officials about demerits of Yen weakness; pair pulls up just pips shy of 128.50. * DXY tops 101.000 in response before pulling back as Europeans return from long Easter break. * Aussie outperforms as RBA minutes highlight more recognition about inflationary environment externally and internally. * Kiwi next best G10 currency as RBNZ Governor Orr underlines that policy is being weighted towards anchoring inflation expectations; AUD/USD hovers under 0.7400 and NZD/USD around 0.6750 * Euro trying to hold near 1.0800 where 1.3bln option expiry interest rolls off at the NY cut, Pound regains 1.3000 plus status and Loonie pivots 1.2600 on the eve of Canadian CPI. * Yuan* close to 6.4000 ahead of Chinese LPR rate verdict on Wednesday amidst heightened easing expectations. * Eskom has implemented Stage Four loadshedding from 07:20, due to Majuba Unit Five and Tutuka Unit Four tripping. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- EUR/USD: 1.0800 (1.3BN), 1.0900 (1.2BN), 1.0930 (830M), 1.1000 (405M)
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME EU bonds correct lower after long Easter holiday weekend then pick up the baton to push US Treasuries even lower; Bunds giving up 154.00 and dropping to a 153.58 trough in short order and USTs lower to the tune of 7 ticks. * Decent demand for German Bobls, but high price in terms of yield and a larger retention - limited relief seen in the benchmark, given broader action. * Benchmark 10 year cash rates approaching new psychological marks of 1.0%, 2.0% and 3.0% in Bunds, Gilts and T-notes* respectively. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are softer after yesterday's firmer session, which was driven by Libya supply concerns, currently moving in tandem with broader equity performance awaiting fresh geopolitical developments. * Currently, WTI and Brent are modestly above session lows which reside sub USD 106/bbl and USD 111/bbl respectively. * OPEC+ produced 1.45mln BPD below targets during March, via Reuters citing a report; compliance 157% (132% in February). * Spot gold and silver are contained with the yellow metal pivoting USD 1975/oz while copper derives further impetus from Peru protest activity. * MMG said protesters at the Las Bambas copper mine alleged a failure to comply with social investment commitments, while it rejected the allegations and noted that Las Bambas will be unable to continue copper output as of April 20th*. * Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) said inflation is far too high for comfort and Fed has a good plan in place, while he added that market pricing based on anticipated Fed tightening is helping keep inflation under control and is hopeful the balance sheet runoff is to begin at the coming meeting. Bullard added they want to get to neutral rates expeditiously and should try to get above neutral as early as Q3, while the base case is not for more than 50bps at any meeting and they do not want to disrupt markets although need to move quickly and noted that he will not rule out a 75bps increase but it is not the base case. Furthermore, he would be open to a 'reverse twist' but is happy for now to go ahead with a passive runoff for the Fed's balance sheet and said they could reduce the balance sheet faster as a plan B if inflation doesn't decline as hoped, according to Reuters.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* is essentially flat and holding steady at the bottom of the sessions USD 40.6-41.2k parameters.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks saw a mixed performance as more markets reopened and trade picked up from the holiday lull. * ASX 200 gained on return from the extended weekend, led by strength in commodity-related sectors and top-weighted financials. * Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 27k level as continued currency depreciation underscored the Fed and BoJ policy divergence. * Hang Seng was pressured as it took its first opportunity to react to the PBoC’s underwhelming policy decisions and with tech hit after Shanghai's market regulator summoned 12 e-commerce platforms including Meituan on price gouging during COVID outbreaks. * Shanghai Comp* was choppy as participants mulled over the latest virus-related developments including an increase in Shanghai deaths and the lockdown of five districts in the steel producing hub of Tangshan, although policy support pledges from the PBoC and NDRC ultimately provided a cushion.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 10bln net neutral daily drain.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3720 vs exp. 6.3744 (prev. 6.3763)
- Shanghai reported 3,084 (prev. 2,417) new symptomatic cases, 17,332 (prev. 19,831) new local asymptomatic cases and 7 (prev. 3) deaths for April 18th, according to CCTV. China's steelmaking region of Tangshan locked down five districts due to COVID.
- China's NDRC said the economy will be back to normal after COVID-19 is controlled and it called for implementation of supportive policies in catering and retail, while it is to roll out measures in a timely way to keep economic operations within a reasonable range. Furthermore, it is to expand consumption in key sectors and continue to support NEV consumption, as well as step up support for market entities affected by COVID-19 outbreaks and will enhance tools to boost market confidence, according to Reuters.
- Chinese CDC expert says should not expect the COVID pandemic to be over soon, via Reuters; urges the removal of unreasonable checkpoints near Shanghai.
- BofA downgrades its 2022 China GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.8%, via Reuters.
- RBA Minutes from the April meeting stated that inflation picked up and a further increase was expected with the measure of underlying inflation in the March quarter expected to be above 3%. RBA stated that wage growth also picked up but in aggregate terms, had been below a level likely to be consistent with inflation being sustainably at the target and said the strength of the Australian economy was evident in labour market, while it added that these developments brought forward the likely timing of the first rate increase.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said JPY weakening brings more demerits than merits under the current circumstances, while he reiterated that FX market stability is important and will continue monitoring FX with a sense of vigilance, according to Reuters.
- Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno provides no comment on FX levels, adds that stability is important; will take appropriate steps on FX policy whilst communicating closely with the US and other currency authorities.
- APAC stocks saw a mixed performance as more markets reopened and trade picked up from the holiday lull.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.7% on return from the holiday weekend.
- Ukraine's armed forces command said Russia's main military focus is on taking full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
- Fed's Bullard refused to rule out a 75bps hike, says Fed needs to raise rates to around 3.5% in 2022.
- DXY pierced 101 to the upside, JPY is the clear laggard in the G10 space, AUD is firmer post-RBA minutes.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits & Housing Starts, IMF World Economic Outlook, Speech from Fed's Evans, Supply from Germany, Earnings from L'Oreal, Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix & IBM.
US TRADEUS stocks returned from the long weekend in a choppy environment with low volumes amid EU, UK and HK market closures with the major indices finishing somewhat mixed on the session with a slight negative bias.
- SPX +0.00% at 4,392, NDX +0.13% at 13,910, DJIA -0.11% at 34,411, R2K -0.84% at 1,989.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) said inflation is far too high for comfort and Fed has a good plan in place, while he added that market pricing based on anticipated Fed tightening is helping keep inflation under control and is hopeful the balance sheet runoff is to begin at the coming meeting. Bullard added they want to get to neutral rates expeditiously and should try to get above neutral as early as Q3, while the base case is not for more than 50bps at any meeting and they do not want to disrupt markets although need to move quickly and noted that he will not rule out a 75bps increase but it is not the base case. Furthermore, he would be open to a 'reverse twist' but is happy for now to go ahead with a passive runoff for the Fed's balance sheet and said they could reduce the balance sheet faster as a plan B if inflation doesn't decline as hoped, according to Reuters.
- US CDC lifted its COVID "do not travel" recommendations on roughly 90 countries, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINEDEFENCE/MILITARY
- Ukraine's Security Council Secretary said Russian forces on Monday tried to break through defences almost all along Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv fronts, while they believe Ukraine forces in Donetsk and Luhansk can withstand this new Russian assault, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine's armed forces command said they see signs that Russia is beginning its new offensive in Eastern Ukraine with Russia's main military focus is on taking full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, according to Reuters.
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russia carried out an airstrike at a logistics centre of the Ukrainian army near Lviv and destroyed foreign-made weapons stored there, according to Tass.
- Russia's Belgorod provincial Governor said a village near the Ukrainian border was struck by Ukraine, according to RIA. However, Sputnik noted that no casualties were reported.
SANCTIONS/ENERGY/OTHER
- White House said US President Biden will hold a call with allies and partners on Tuesday to discuss continued support for Ukraine and efforts to hold Russia accountable, according to Reuters.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen will urge IMF and World Bank members to raise economic pressure on Russia while mitigating spillover effects, according to Reuters.
- US Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo said the next phase of sanctions on Russia will be to disrupt Russia's military industrial complex and supply chains, while he added that China has in the past continued to follow Western sanctions on Russia, according to Reuters.
- US said it is to send diplomats back to Ukraine as soon as possible, according to Reuters.
OTHER US President Biden’s administration decided to implement a self-imposed ban on the testing of anti-satellite weapons, in part to highlight a Russian test in November that created a dangerous field of space debris, according to NBC citing sources. * Israel Military noted sirens in Israeli towns outside of Gaza and warned of possible incoming rockets, while an explosion was heard close to the Israel-Gaza border possibly from a rocket interception, according to Israel's Kan Radio. It was later reported that Israel Defense Forces conducted strikes on Gaza following earlier rocket fire, according to Aurora Intel. * South Korean official said Russian and Chinese military aircrafts entered South Korea's air defence identification zone without prior notice last month ahead of North Korea's long-range missile launch, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korea expects North Korea to test-fire a guided weapon 'soon'*, according to DONG-A.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks saw a mixed performance as more markets reopened and trade picked up from the holiday lull. * ASX 200 gained on return from the extended weekend, led by strength in commodity-related sectors and top-weighted financials. * Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 27k level as continued currency depreciation underscored the Fed and BoJ policy divergence. * Hang Seng was pressured as it took its first opportunity to react to the PBoC’s underwhelming policy decisions and with tech hit after Shanghai's market regulator summoned 12 e-commerce platforms including Meituan on price gouging during COVID outbreaks. * Shanghai Comp was choppy as participants mulled over the latest virus-related developments including an increase in Shanghai deaths and the lockdown of five districts in the steel producing hub of Tangshan, although policy support pledges from the PBoC and NDRC ultimately provided a cushion. * US equity futures notched marginal gains alongside the mostly constructive mood during Asia trade. * European equity futures* are indicative of a weaker open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.7% on return from the holiday weekend.
FX DXY remained firm and tested the 101.00 level to print its highest in two years after building upon yesterday’s yield-driven gains. * EUR/USD fell beneath the 1.0800 handle due to the firmer greenback and after Europe-wide holiday closures. * GBP/USD was indecisive and traded both sides of the 1.3000 level with pertinent newsflow light. * USD/JPY continued its ascent and rose above 128.00 to print a fresh near-20yr high despite further jawboning by Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki who suggested the demerits from JPY weakening were greater than merits under the current circumstances. * Antipodeans* were kept afloat after the recent upside in oil prices and with the RBA Minutes providing brief support as it stated that a further increase in inflation was expected and that developments have brought forward the likely timing of a first rate hike.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were marginally higher as yields took a breather from yesterday’s advances despite the latest hawkish rhetoric from Fed’s Bullard who refused to rule out a 75bps increase but noted it was not the base case. * Bunds resumed their weakening trend on reopen from the extended weekend and briefly declined beneath 154.50. * 10yr JGBs* kept afloat amid firmer demand in the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated bonds and with anticipation the BoJ may need to intervene again soon as the 10yr JGB yield sits close to the central bank’s cap.
COMMODITIES Crude futures initially extended on recent advances as Libya output/export disruptions add to the supply concerns. * US total shale regions oil production for May seen +133k BPD at 8.649mln BPD (prev. +129k BPD in April), according to the EIA. * Spot gold was little changed with the precious metal contained by the mighty dollar. * Copper was rangebound and held on to yesterday's gains as protests threaten output at Peru's Las Bambas copper mine. * MMG said protesters at the Las Bambas copper mine alleged a failure to comply with social investment commitments, while it rejected the allegations and noted that Las Bambas will be unable to continue copper output as of April 20th*.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were rangebound overnight with momentum stalling after hitting resistance near the 41,000 level.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 10bln net neutral daily drain.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3720 vs exp. 6.3744 (prev. 6.3763)
- Shanghai reported 3,084 (prev. 2,417) new symptomatic cases, 17,332 (prev. 19,831) new local asymptomatic cases and 7 (prev. 3) deaths for April 18th, according to CCTV. China's steelmaking region of Tangshan locked down five districts due to COVID.
- China's NDRC said the economy will be back to normal after COVID-19 is controlled and it called for implementation of supportive policies in catering and retail, while it is to roll out measures in a timely way to keep economic operations within a reasonable range. Furthermore, it is to expand consumption in key sectors and continue to support NEV consumption, as well as step up support for market entities affected by COVID-19 outbreaks and will enhance tools to boost market confidence, according to Reuters.
- RBA Minutes from the April meeting stated that inflation picked up and a further increase was expected with the measure of underlying inflation in the March quarter expected to be above 3%. RBA stated that wage growth also picked up but in aggregate terms, had been below a level likely to be consistent with inflation being sustainably at the target and said the strength of the Australian economy was evident in labour market, while it added that these developments brought forward the likely timing of the first rate increase.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said JPY weakening brings more demerits than merits under the current circumstances, while he reiterated that FX market stability is important and will continue monitoring FX with a sense of vigilance, according to Reuters.
- European bourses are modestly firmer, but off best levels, with US futures contained ahead of risk events
- US futures remain in narrow parameters before Retail Sales and GS/MS earnings; TWTR flies on Musk’s offer to buy at USD 54.20/shr
- DXY pressured and slipping further from 100.00, NZD bounces, EUR gains pre-ECB and SEK bolstered on CPIF/Riksbank calls
- Core debt continues to slip after brief safe-haven flows from Medvedev commentary dissipate, UST yield curve modestly steeper
- Russia’s Medvedev said if Sweden and Finland join NATO there can be no more talk of a nuclear-free Baltic
- WTI and Brent are pressured and near session troughs, focused on Ukraine-Russia and China’s COVID situation
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings incl. Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs.
As of 11:20BST/06:20ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US IJC, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings incl. Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- US is said to be mulling sending a high-level official to Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky, according to Politico.
- Ukrainian negotiator says Ukraine wants the number of guarantors (in a deal) to increase but Russia is opposed to this, via Reuters.
- Ukraine's Deputy PM says nine humanitarian corridors have been agreed for Thursday, via Reuters.
- Ukrainian Foreign Minister says talks with Russia continue but without much progress, real progress in negotiations with Russia will only be possible based on the results of the Donbass attack, via AJA Breaking.
- Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev says that if Sweden and Finland join NATO, it will make no large difference for Russia, it will just mean a few more opponents; If Sweden and Finland join NATO there can be no more talk of a nuclear-free Baltic as the "balance must be restored".
- Russia's Kremlin says, on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, says President Putin will consider measures once the defence ministry presents them, will take time to put the proposals together, via Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russia said if attacks on Russian territory continue, then Russian forces will strike at the places where such decisions are made including Kyiv, according to RIA.
- Russia said its Moskva missile cruise ship was seriously damaged following an ammunition explosion while the crew were evacuated and the cause of the fire that prompted the explosion is being investigated, according to Interfax. It was earlier claimed that Ukrainian forces hit the ship with missile strikes, according to AFP.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- White House said secondary sanctions and targeting of additional financial firms are among the range of potential sanctions that remain aimed at Russia, according to Reuters.
- Russian President Putin told Austrian Chancellor Nehammer in their meeting on Monday that Russia will continue making contracted gas deliveries to Europe and will accept EUR payments, via Reuters citing APA news.
OTHER Russia's government will conduct discussions on Thursday regarding subsidies for airlines and airports* to help them cope with western sanctions, according to Reuters. * IAEA report notes that the agency finished installing cameras at new Iran's centrifuge-parts workshop at the Natanz plant, according to a document seen by Reuters. * Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said “China will continue to place Pakistan as a priority in its neighbouring diplomacy”, via Global Times.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, but off best levels as sentiment was hit on commentary from Russia's Medvedev and as we await key bank earnings. * Sectors in Europe are contained and are not exhibiting any pronounced theme thus far. * US futures remain within narrow parameters at this point in time awaiting updates from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley before Retail Sales rounds off the week's key data; NQ +0.1%. * Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, on April 13th, offered to purchase all of the outstanding Twitter (TWTR) shares for USD 54.20/shr (vs prior close of USD 45.85); said it was his final offer. TWTR +13% in the pre-market * TSMC (2330 TW) Q1 (TWD): Revenue 491bln (prev. 362bln), Net Profit 202.7bln (exp. 184.7bln), Gross Margin 55.6%. Expects chip demand to continue in the long term, believes capacity will remain tight this year and expects another strong year. Working to address supply chain challenges with tool suppliers. * UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH)* Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 5.49 (exp. 5.38/5.16 GAAP), Revenue (exp. 78.79bln); Raised upper end of guidance. * Click here for more detail.
FX DXY almost full point down from midweek y-t-d peak as US Treasury yields continue to recede ahead of packed pre-Easter agenda index hovering above 95.500 vs 100.520 high. * Kiwi rebounds after RBNZ letdown with tailwinds from AUD/NZD cross in wake of weaker than forecast Aussie jobs data, NZD/USD back on 0.6800 handle, AUD/USD straddling 0.7450. * Euro takes advantage of Greenback retreat awaiting words of wisdom from ECB President Lagarde following policy announcement that is not expected to reveal changes; EUR/USD above 1.0900 vs close shave with 2022 low (1.0806) yesterday. * Swedish Crown aloft as more consensus and Riksbank target topping inflation prints prompt earlier rate hike calls, EUR/SEK pivots 10.3000. * Korean Won and Singapore Dollar boosted by shock BoK hike and MAS tightening, but Chinese Yuan* backs off amidst growing speculation about PBoC easing possibly as soon as tomorrow. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Eurozone bonds extend retreat from recovery peaks and underperformance ahead of the ECB. * Bunds nearer 155.00 after rebound to just shy of 156.00, Gilts sub-119.00 vs 119.65 Liffe high and 10 year T-note closer to 120-19+ overnight bottom than 121-05+ top. * US Treasuries down in sympathy with Gilts* and curve a tad steeper after so-so long bond auction. * Debt also defensive pre-long Easter weekend and busy line up of US data, including IJC and retail sales. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are pressured and in relatively proximity to the session's troughs of USD 102.50/bbl and USD 107.01/bbl. * Newsflow remains focused on Ukraine-Russia, particularly Medvedev's commentary, and the COVID situation in China as other cities are on edge re. Shanghai. * Libyan National Unity Government adopted a plan to develop the oil sector to raise output to 1.4mln bpd, according to Reuters. * Chinese refiners are seen cutting April's crude throughput by 900k BPD, around 6% of the 2021 average, via Reuters citing sources/analysts; expected to export 2mln/T of refined fuel in April, counter to earlier China plan to halt exports. * Spot gold/silver* are pressured and have lost the brief upside derived from earlier geopolitical developments, yellow metal at lows of USD 1967/oz. * Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE DATA
- UK RICS Housing Survey (Mar) 74 vs. Exp. 75.0 (Prev. 79.0, Rev. 78)
- Swedish CPIF YY (Mar) 6.1% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 4.5%); MM (Mar) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Mar) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.4%); Ex-Energy MM (Mar) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.0%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* continues to reside within the lacklustre ranges exhibited during the APAC session, holding just above the USD 41.1k mark.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly positive after the gains on Wall St where risk appetite was supported by lower yields, although some bourses lagged on policy tightening. * ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped by cautiousness in the top-weighted financials sector after Bank of Queensland's shares failed to benefit post-earnings. * Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 27,000 level with Japan's ruling coalition parties unveiling their draft relief proposals. * Fast Retailing (9983 JT) 6-month (JPY): Net Profit 146.84bln, +38.7%; Operating Profit 189.3bln, +12.7%; Pretax Profit 212.6bln, +24%; Sees FY net income at 190bln (prev. guidance 175bln) * KOSPI and Straits Times Index lagged after the BoK unexpectedly hiked rates by 25bps points and the MAS tightened FX-based policy, respectively. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* were kept afloat with speculation rife that the PBoC will lower rates tomorrow via an MLF rate cut, while Citi also sees the possibility for a RRR cut on Friday to free up around CNY 1.2tln cash.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3540 vs exp. 6.3543 (prev. 6.3752)
- Japan's ruling LDP draft proposal stated the government should prioritise compiling a relief package swiftly by tapping special reserves to fund spending and urged for increased aid to soften the blow from rising fuel prices but did not mention the desired spending size, according to Reuters.
- Japan's ruling coalition partner Komeito party draft called for establishing funds to support businesses impacted by sanctions against Russia and strongly demanded the government to deliver an extra budget urgently, according to Reuters.
- Bank of Korea unexpectedly raised its Base Rate by 25bps to 1.50% with the decision unanimous, while the BoK MPC chief said they couldn't wait for the formal appointment of a Governor to resume the fight against inflation and that the views among BoK board members are seen diverging. BoK said South Korea's growth is to sustain a recovery but will be lower than previously projected and inflation will run higher than earlier estimated, according to Reuters.
- Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened its FX-based policy, as expected, by slightly raising the rate of appreciation of the policy band and re-centred the mid-point of the band at the prevailing level of the SGD NEER., while it noted that tighter monetary policy stance will slow the inflation momentum and help ensure medium-term price stability, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE APAC DATA
- Singapore GDP QQ (Q1 A) 0.4% vs Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 10.7%); YY (Q1 A) 3.4% vs Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 6.1%)
- Australian Employment Change (Mar) 17.9k vs. Exp. 40.0k (Prev. 77.4k); Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.0%)
- APAC stocks were mostly positive after the gains on Wall St which saw the NQ outpace peers with gains of 2%.
- Bank of Korea unexpectedly raised its Base Rate by 25bps to 1.50% with the decision unanimous.
- European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1% yesterday.
- DXY remains sub-99, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.09, NZD leads in the G10 FX space.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth.
US TRADE US stocks gained on Wednesday to snap a three-day losing streak with Nasdaq rallying 2% led by advances in Tech as large caps were supported by lower yields across the curve, which led to outperformance in growth vs value. * SPX +1.13% at 4,447, NDX +1.99% at 14,217, DJIA +1.01% at 34,564, R2K* +1.86% at 2,023.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Waller (voter, hawk) said high inflation in CPI report was not surprising and is pretty much the peak, while he said the Fed will continue with its plan for rate hikes and reducing accommodation to get inflation under control. Waller reiterated that data supports 50bps and he prefers a 50bps rate hike in May with possibly more in June and July, while he wants to get above neutral by the latter half of this year and said they can get prices down without causing a recession, according to Reuters and CNBC.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- US tried to reach US Defence Secretary Austin's Russian counterpart although there was no interest from Russia to talk, according to Reuters.
- US is said to be mulling sending a high-level official to Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky, according to Politico.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Ukrainian President Zelensky's Chief of Staff said Russia is talking about possible missile strikes on Kyiv and that Ukraine is ready, according to Al Jazeera.
- Ukraine's armed forces command stated that Russian forces are ready to attack in Donetsk and Kherson regions, according to Reuters.
- Russia said if attacks on Russian territory continue, then Russian forces will strike at the places where such decisions are made including Kyiv, according to RIA.
- Russia said its Moskva missile cruise ship was seriously damaged following an ammunition explosion while the crew were evacuated and the cause of the fire that prompted the explosion is being investigated, according to Interfax. It was earlier claimed that Ukrainian forces hit the ship with missile strikes, according to AFP.
- US President Biden said the US is authorising an additional USD 800mln in weapons, ammunition and other security assistance to Ukraine, while the military package will contain many of the weapon systems the US has already provided as well as new capabilities. It was also reported that the White House said the legal process determining genocide in Ukraine will be undertaken, according to Reuters.
- US is moving to "significantly" expand the intelligence it is providing to Ukraine’s forces so they can target Moscow’s military units in Donbas and Crimea and potentially take back territory, according to WSJ citing officials.
ENERGY/SANCTIONS
- Russia is imposing sanctions on 398 members of the US House of Representatives and 87 Canadian Senators, according to Reuters.
- White House said secondary sanctions and targeting of additional financial firms are among the range of potential sanctions that remain aimed at Russia, according to Reuters.
- Top oil traders are to cut oil purchases from Russia's Rosneft from May 15th due to EU and Swiss financial sanctions forbidding purchases for non-critical European needs, according to Reuters sources.
FUND/OTHER
- Russia's government will conduct discussions on Thursday regarding subsidies for airlines and airports to help them cope with western sanctions, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly positive after the gains on Wall St where risk appetite was supported by lower yields, although some bourses lagged on policy tightening. * ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped by cautiousness in the top-weighted financials sector after Bank of Queensland's shares failed to benefit post-earnings. * Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 27,000 level with Japan's ruling coalition parties unveiling their draft relief proposals. * KOSPI and Straits Times Index lagged after the BoK unexpectedly hiked rates by 25bps points and the MAS tightened FX-based policy, respectively. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with speculation rife that the PBoC will lower rates tomorrow via an MLF rate cut, while Citi also sees the possibility for a RRR cut on Friday to free up around CNY 1.2tln cash. * US equity futures marginally extended on the prior day's gains as yields remained softer. * European equity futures* are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1% yesterday.
FX DXY was lacklustre beneath the 100 level after falling from near its May 2020 highs with pressure from softer yields and the improved risk tone. * EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.0900 status at the greenback’s expense with the focus turning to today’s ECB meeting. * GBP/USD marginally extended on the prior day’s gains in the aftermath of the firmer than expected UK CPI. * USD/JPY faded some of the recent advances after it pulled back from a 20-year high. * USD/SGD retreated after the Monetary Authority of Singapore conducted a two-pronged tightening of its FX-based policy. * Antipodeans* diverged with NZD the best performer in the G10 FX space, whilst AUD traded rangebound with AUD/USD contained following the miss on the latest key jobs data.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures remained afloat after yesterday's gains despite firm PPI data and an average 30yr bond auction, amid touted short-covering in the front end. * Bund futures were choppy and traded on both sides of the 155.00 level heading to today’s ECB meeting. * 10yr JGBs* eventually found support following the 20yr auction results which showed firmer demand and higher accepted prices.
COMMODITIES Crude futures took a breather following a two-day rally with the prior day's gains helped by IEA forecasts for large Russian production cuts. * Libyan National Unity Government adopted a plan to develop the oil sector to raise output to 1.4mln bpd, according to Reuters. * Spot gold was rangebound but remained near a monthly high amid a lacklustre greenback. * Copper* edged mild gains overnight amid the mostly constructive risk tone and increased speculation for China to cut rates.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were marginally above the USD 41,000 level overnight.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3540 vs exp. 6.3543 (prev. 6.3752)
- Japan's ruling LDP draft proposal stated the government should prioritise compiling a relief package swiftly by tapping special reserves to fund spending and urged for increased aid to soften the blow from rising fuel prices but did not mention the desired spending size, according to Reuters.
- Japan's ruling coalition partner Komeito party draft called for establishing funds to support businesses impacted by sanctions against Russia and strongly demanded the government to deliver an extra budget urgently, according to Reuters.
- Bank of Korea unexpectedly raised its Base Rate by 25bps to 1.50% with the decision unanimous, while the BoK MPC chief said they couldn't wait for the formal appointment of a Governor to resume the fight against inflation and that the views among BoK board members are seen diverging. BoK said South Korea's growth is to sustain a recovery but will be lower than previously projected and inflation will run higher than earlier estimated, according to Reuters.
- Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened its FX-based policy, as expected, by slightly raising the rate of appreciation of the policy band and re-centred the mid-point of the band at the prevailing level of the SGD NEER., while it noted that tighter monetary policy stance will slow the inflation momentum and help ensure medium-term price stability, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Singapore GDP QQ (Q1 A) 0.4% vs Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 10.7%)
- Singapore GDP YY (Q1 A) 3.4% vs Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 6.1%)
- Australian Employment Change (Mar) 17.9k vs. Exp. 40.0k (Prev. 77.4k)
- Australian Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.0%)
EUROPENOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- French President Macron said he wants to increase pensions by 4% from summer if re-elected, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- UK RICS Housing Survey* (Mar) 74 vs. Exp. 75.0 (Prev. 79.0, Rev. 78)
- European bourses are pressured across the board, though US peers are faring better and positive post-CPI as earnings season begins, ES +0.3%
- DXY remains above the 100.00 mark posting a 100.52 high, while NZD lags in-spite of a 50bp RBNZ move
- Core debt is pressured, but has staged a modest recovery from lows, yields elevate but off highs as such; USD/JPY continues to climb amid rate differentials
- WTI and Brent are bid and have eclipsed relatively contained parameters that have been in-play throughout the morning, spot gold supported but shy of Tuesday’s best
- Ukraine-Russia newsflow continues and Ukraine’s Zelensky claims he has evidence of chemical weapons use while Iran’s IRGC issues punchy language re. Soleimani
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoC Policy Announcement, Supply from the US. Earnings incl. JPMorgan.
As of 11:20BST/06:20ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US PPI, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoC Policy Announcement, Supply from the US. Earnings incl. JPMorgan. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed swapping pro-Russian politician Medvedchuk for Ukrainian prisoners of war, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian Deputy PM says it is not possible to open humanitarian corridors on Wednesday; occupying forces have violated the ceasefire, via Reuters.
- Sweden's largest party Social Democrats favour applying to NATO at the June meeting in Spain, according to SvD.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- US President Biden said it will be up to lawyers to determine if Russia's actions in Ukraine qualify as genocide but added it seems like genocide to him and that the evidence is mounting, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden's administration is expected to announce at least USD 750mln in additional weapons for Ukraine and deliberations continue on a mix of weapons, which could evolve, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said it is not possible to draw 100% firm conclusions about whether Russia used chemical weapons in Mariupol and that it is not possible to conduct a full investigation in a besieged city, according to Reuters.
- Chechen leader Kadyrov said over 1,000 Ukrainian marines surrendered in Mariupol, according to Sputnik.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- US President Biden said Americans' ability to pay for gasoline should not hinge on whether a dictator declares war and "commits genocide" halfway across the world. President Biden also proposed a sustainable aviation fuel tax, while he noted they need to address the challenge of rising prices in the US and he is doing everything in his power to reduce costs, according to Reuters.
- Russian Energy Minister said Moscow is ready to sell oil and oil products to friendly countries in any price range and that oil prices in the range of USD 80-150/bbl are in principle possible, while he added the task is not to guess how much prices will be but to ensure industry functions, according to Interfax citing Izvestia.
- Russian President Putin says unfriendly nations have destroyed supply chains within the Arctic, some nations are not fulfilling contracted obligations, can increase local oil, gas consumption, via Reuters.
- Top oil merchant Vitol said it will stop trading Russian crude, according to Bloomberg.
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen says US will work with partners to isolate Russia until the war ends; US and allies will not be indifferent to actions by countries and firms that undermine sanctions against Russia, via Reuters.
OTHER Iran's IRGC Ground Force Commander Pakpour says even if all American leaders are killed, this would not be enough to avenge the death of Soleimani, via Reuters*
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, in what has been a somewhat choppy European morning with limited fresh macro drivers emerging. * Sectors are similar to their initial cash open performance, as Energy and Basic Resources outperform while Travel, Retail and Personal Goods lag. * US futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.3%, and while they have been directionally moving with Europe magnitudes are more limited; support following yesterday's CPI but ahead of PPI and JPM earnings. * BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 9.52 (exp. 8.95), Revenue 4.699bln (exp. 4.74bln). +0.3% in the pre-market * Blackrock (BLK) intends to launch the first China onshore ETF in Q4-2022, according to Reuters sources.* * Click here for more detail.
FX Kiwi knee jerks higher after bigger than generally expected 50 bp RBNZ hike before retreating abruptly on reflection of unchanged OCR outlook; NZD/USD sub-0.6800 vs peak just over big figure above. * Yen flogged yet again as Japanese officials continue to fret about speed rather than size of moves and core machinery orders miss consensus; USD/JPY knocks down barriers at 126.00 to reach 126.31 and breach 2015 peak. * DXY extends advance above 100.000 before waning ahead of May 2020 peak just over 100.500. * Aussie retains 0.7400+ status vs Greenback before jobs data, but with assistance from sharp reversal in AUD/NZD cross flows - from circa 1.0833 to 1.0950. * Euro keeps its head above 2022 low against Dollar, narrowly, and Pound rebounds after minor boost from strong UK inflation prints, EUR/USD down to 1.0811 or so vs 1.0806, Cable revisits 1.3000 vs 1.2972 at worst. * Loonie* immersed in technical levels awaiting BoC and guidance to accompany a widely forecast half point rate rise; USD/CAD near 1.2650 and flanked by 200, 100 and 50 DMAs. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- EUR/USD: 1.0800 (214M), 1.0865-70 (1.03BN), 1.0900 (1.34BN), 1.0960 (288M), 1.0980 (331M), 1.0995-05 (3.0BN), 1.1005-15 (1.1BN)
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Bonds bounce ahead of Tuesday's new lows, but recovery remains feline rather than firm as Bunds hover above 155.00, Gilts just under 119.00 and T-note midway between 119-31/120-17 extremes. * Lacklustre 10-year Bund auction in keeping with T-note sale last night, and with long bond supply still to come. * Italy* sees decent demand for multi-tranche offerings after recent heavier concession. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are firmer in a continuation of the consolidation from the upside seen in yesterday's session amid geopolitical tensions. * Most recently, the benchmarks have eclipsed a circa. USD 2/bbl range that had been holding throughout the morning; current bests, USD 102.13/bbl and USD 106.45/bbl respectively. * US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.8mln (exp. +0.9mln), Cushing +0.4mln, Gasoline -5.1mln (exp. -0.4mln), Distillate -5.0mln (exp. -0.5mln). * IEA OMR: Lowers 2022 global oil demand estimate by 260k BPD on COVID in China and lower OECD demand. February global stocks 714mln/bbl below the end-2020 level, OECD accounts for 70% of the decline. Russian oil supply is expected to fall by 1.5mln BPD in April and by around 3mln BPD from May. * CNOOC (883 HK) is said to be considering exiting operations in Britain, US and Canada amid tensions with the West, according to Reuters sources. * Spot gold and silver are bid this morning, though the yellow metal is still shy of yesterday's USD 1978.21/oz peak. * LME Zinc* outperforms piggybacking the performance of its Shanghai peer overnight. * Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE DATA
- UK CPI YY (Mar) 7.0% vs. Exp. 6.7% (Prev. 6.2%); MM (Mar) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%)
- UK Core CPI YY (Mar) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.2%); MM (Mar) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.8%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) said it is fantasy to think that modest rate hikes will tame inflation and that the Fed must put the brakes on economic activity to address surging prices, according to FT.
- Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) said the Fed will do what it must to address high inflation and the extent the Fed will need to hike won't be clear until they get closer to the destination, while he added that they should move rates rapidly to neutral then tighten further if needed and thinks hiking rates beyond neutral will be part of the process.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* is modestly firmer, retaining the USD 40k mark but modestly shy of the USD 40.27k peak.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks mostly shrugged off the weak lead from the US and rebounded from a two-day losing streak. * ASX 200 was kept afloat by the commodity-related sectors including energy after WTI crude futures climbed back above USD 100/bbl landmark and with Australia's government providing funding for domestic refiners. * Nikkei 225 outperformed currency weakness and with the index unfazed by disappointing Machinery Orders. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* lagged on COVID woes despite China testing an easing of quarantine rules in eight cities, as infections continued to spread with a fresh record of daily cases in Shanghai, while Sunac's missed coupon payment, further inclusions to the US HFCAA list and mixed trade data added to the cautious mood.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3752 vs exp. 6.3748 (prev. 6.3795)
- China government advisor says China should cut RRR and interest rates to cushion the slowdown, via Reuters.
- China is testing an easing of quarantine rules for eight cities including Shanghai and Guangzhou, according to Caixin.
- RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 1.50% (exp. 25bps increase) and said it will remain focused on ensuring that current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations. RBNZ said it remains comfortable with the outlook on the OCR as outlined in the February MPS and that moving the OCR to a more neutral stance sooner reduces the risk of rising inflation expectations, while the Committee agreed that their policy 'path of least regrets' is to increase the OCR by more now rather than later and noted that further increases in the OCR are needed in order to meet their mandate, according to Reuters.
- BoJ's Kuroda says the domestic economy is showing some weakness, but picking up as a trend. Consumer inflation hovering at 0.5% is likely to clearly accelerate for the time being.
- Japan's Economy Minister Yamagiwa gives no comment on FX levels, stability is important. Sharp FX moves are undesirable, via Reuters.Note, multiple Japanese officials have provided similar commentary in today's session
NOTABLE APAC DATA
- Chinese Trade Balance USD (Mar) 47.38B vs. Exp. 22.4B (Prev. 115.95B)
- Chinese Exports YY (Mar) 14.7% vs. Exp. 13.0% (Prev. 16.3%); Imports YY (Mar) -0.1% vs. Exp. 8.0% (Prev. 15.5%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Mar) 300.6B (Prev. 194.4B)
- Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Mar) 12.9% vs. Exp. 12.4% (Prev. 4.1%); Imports YY (CNY)(Mar) -1.7% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 8.3%)
- Chinese rare-earth exports in Q1 rose 6.5% Y/Y to 12,680 tons, slowing down from the 10.9% growth recorded in January and February, according to customs data.
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Feb) -9.8% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. -2.0%); YY (Feb) 4.3% vs. Exp. 14.5% (Prev. 5.1%)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr) 95.8 (Prev. 96.6); MM (Apr) -0.9% (Prev. -4.2%)
- APAC stocks mostly shrugged off the weak lead from the US and rebounded from a two-day losing streak.
- Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) said the Fed must put the brakes on economic activity to address surging prices.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.2% yesterday.
- DXY is contained on a 100 handle, USD/JPY remains above 125 and NZD lags post-RBNZ rate hike.
- RBNZ opted for a more aggressive hike of 50bps whilst remaining comfortable with its previous outlook on the OCR.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US PPI, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoC Policy Announcement, IEA OMR, Supply from US, Germany & Italy, Earnings from BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan & Tesco.
US TRADE US stocks finished mostly lower after failing to sustain the initial post-CPI dovish market reaction. * SPX -0.33% at 4,398, NDX -0.36% at 13,940, DJIA -0.26% at 34,220, R2K* +0.38% at 1,986.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Brainard (voter) said the commodities price shock is driving topline inflation and she is most focused on core inflation for assessing the path of monetary policy. Brainard added they are to decide on balance sheet reduction in May which could see reductions as soon as June, while she dodged the question on 50bps and said the Fed will move towards neutral expeditiously, according to Reuters.
- Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) said it is fantasy to think that modest rate hikes will tame inflation and that the Fed must put the brakes on economic activity to address surging prices, according to FT.
- Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) said the Fed will do what it must to address high inflation and the extent the Fed will need to hike won't be clear until they get closer to the destination, while he added that they should move rates rapidly to neutral then tighten further if needed and thinks hiking rates beyond neutral will be part of the process.
- Fed Discount Rate Minutes stated that 10 of 12 regional Fed banks voted for a 0.25% discount rate hike, while Dallas and New York Fed directors voted for a 0.50% discount rate hike, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed swapping pro-Russian politician Medvedchuk for Ukrainian prisoners of war, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine's negotiator said talks about external security guarantees for Ukraine were continuing on Tuesday in an online format, according to Reuters.
- Kyiv said ongoing negotiations with Russia to end the war are 'extremely difficult', according to AFP.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- US President Biden said it will be up to lawyers to determine if Russia's actions in Ukraine qualify as genocide but added it seems like genocide to him and that the evidence is mounting, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden's administration is expected to announce at least USD 750mln in additional weapons for Ukraine and deliberations continue on a mix of weapons, which could evolve, according to Reuters.
- US Department of Defense invited the top eight US arms manufacturers to a meeting Wednesday to discuss weapons for Ukraine, according to Reuters sources. US DoD also said China and Russia are seeking weapons to hit US satellites and that China is seen increasing intelligence and surveillance satellites.
- US Pentagon said it has not seen anything to confirm the report of Russian military equipment being sent to the border with Finland, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken said the US is not in a position to confirm anything regarding reports of chemical weapons usage in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said it is not possible to draw 100% firm conclusions about whether Russia used chemical weapons in Mariupol and that it is not possible to conduct a full investigation in a besieged city, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine's Governor of Donetsk region said shelling in the region is happening round the clock and the situation is difficult, while Russia is in the final stage of regrouping its forces and evacuations continue, according to Reuters.
- Chechen leader Kadyrov said over 1,000 Ukrainian marines surrendered in Mariupol, according to Sputnik.
ENERGY/SANCTIONS
- US President Biden said Americans' ability to pay for gasoline should not hinge on whether a dictator declares war and "commits genocide" halfway across the world. President Biden also proposed a sustainable aviation fuel tax, while he noted they need to address the challenge of rising prices in the US and he is doing everything in his power to reduce costs, according to Reuters.
- Russian Energy Minister said Moscow is ready to sell oil and oil products to friendly countries in any price range and that oil prices in the range of USD 80-150/bbl are in principle possible, while he added the task is not to guess how much prices will be but to ensure industry functions, according to Interfax citing Izvestia.
- Top oil merchant Vitol said it will stop trading Russian crude, according to Bloomberg.
OTHER Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said talks to revive the nuclear deal 'are going well'*, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks mostly shrugged off the weak lead from the US and rebounded from a two-day losing streak. * ASX 200 was kept afloat by the commodity-related sectors including energy after WTI crude futures climbed back above USD 100/bbl landmark and with Australia's government providing funding for domestic refiners. * Nikkei 225 outperformed currency weakness and with the index unfazed by disappointing Machinery Orders. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged on COVID woes despite China testing an easing of quarantine rules in eight cities, as infections continued to spread with a fresh record of daily cases in Shanghai, while Sunac's missed coupon payment, further inclusions to the US HFCAA list and mixed trade data added to the cautious mood. * US equity futures clawed back yesterday's losses in tandem with the mostly improved risk appetite in Asia. * European equity futures* are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.2% yesterday.
FX DXY was uneventful and took a breather from the whipsawing seen in the aftermath of the mixed CPI data. * EUR/USD attempted to nurse some of the losses after yesterday's failed incursion into 1.0900 territory. * GBP/USD was rangebound and traded both sides of 1.3000 after the recent mixed jobs and wages data. * USD/JPY remained above 125.00 despite Japan’s Finance Minister reiterating the importance of FX stability. * Antipodeans were mixed with NZD initially boosted after the RBNZ opted for a more aggressive hike of 50bps, although the gains were retraced as the central bank remained comfortable with its previous outlook on the OCR which suggested that today's more aggressive move was just front-loading and that its view for the destination of rates remained unchanged. * CBRT Governor told exporters that the Turkish central bank is mulling raising the level of forex revenues they must sell to it to 40% from 25%*, according to Reuters sources.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures partially unwound the prior day’s dovish reaction to the mixed CPI data, which had marginally eased some of the aggressive terminal Fed hike pricing, with prices not helped by the poor US 10yr auction. * Bund futures were softer overnight with price action stuck around the 155.00 level. * 10yr JGBs* just about remained afloat after pulling back from resistance near 149.50 and with downside stemmed amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 1tln of JGBs.
COMMODITIES Crude futures initially extended on yesterday's 7% gains but lost steam as WTI hit resistance at USD 102/bbl. * US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.8mln (exp. +0.9mln), Cushing +0.4mln, Gasoline -5.1mln (exp. -0.4mln), Distillate -5.0mln (exp. -0.5mln). * EIA STEO sees US crude output to rise 820k BPD to 12.01mln BPD in 2022 (prev. saw a rise of 850k BPD M/M) and to rise 940k BPD to 12.95mln in 2023 (prev. saw a rise of 960k BPD), according to Reuters. * Transcontinental Gas Pipeline Co. said it experienced an unplanned outage near station 90 in Marengo County, Alabama and the outage may need Transco to restrict non-primary transportation services moving South to North through station 90, according to Reuters. * Spot gold traded rangebound overnight in tandem with an uneventful dollar. * Copper* prices gained amid the mostly constructive risk tone in Asia.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were rangebound overnight around the USD 40,000 level.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3752 vs exp. 6.3748 (prev. 6.3795)
- China is testing an easing of quarantine rules for eight cities including Shanghai and Guangzhou, according to Caixin.
- RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 1.50% (exp. 25bps increase) and said it will remain focused on ensuring that current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations. RBNZ said it remains comfortable with the outlook on the OCR as outlined in the February MPS and that moving the OCR to a more neutral stance sooner reduces the risk of rising inflation expectations, while the Committee agreed that their policy 'path of least regrets' is to increase the OCR by more now rather than later and noted that further increases in the OCR are needed in order to meet their mandate, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance USD* (Mar) 47.38B vs. Exp. 22.4B (Prev. 115.95B)
- Chinese Exports YY* (Mar) 14.7% vs. Exp. 13.0% (Prev. 16.3%)
- Chinese Imports YY* (Mar) -0.1% vs. Exp. 8.0% (Prev. 15.5%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Mar) 300.6B (Prev. 194.4B)
- Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Mar) 12.9% vs. Exp. 12.4% (Prev. 4.1%)
- Chinese Imports YY (CNY)(Mar) -1.7% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 8.3%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Feb) -9.8% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. -2.0%)
- Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Feb) 4.3% vs. Exp. 14.5% (Prev. 5.1%)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr) 95.8 (Prev. 96.6)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment MM (Apr) -0.9% (Prev. -4.2%)
EUROPENOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Sunak reportedly contemplated resigning and wrote a resignation letter after being fined by police for attending PM Johnson's lockdown party, but then settled on an apology, according to The Times.
- European Equities remain subdued but well off lows as participants await US CPI, the easing of initial pressure has US futures unchanged
- DXY continue to grind higher printing a 100.23 high to the mixed fortune of peers as AUD & NZD remain resilient
- Core debt has bounced pre-CPI as Bunds/Gilts derive some impetus from solid auctions, US 10yr sale ahead
- WTI and Brent are continuing to recoup Monday’s lost ground amid multiple crude-related updates; Brent above USD 102/bbl
- Geopolitics has been focused on potential chemical weapons usage by Russian forces, though details are light
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Speeches from Fed's Barkin & Brainard, Supply from the US, Earnings from LVMH.
As of 11:15BST/06:15ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US CPI, Speeches from Fed's Barkin & Brainard, Supply from the US, Earnings from LVMH. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian Deputy Minister says nine humanitarian corridors have been agreed for Tuesday, including from Mariupol via private vehicles, via Reuters.
- Russian President Putin says there is no doubt that the military operation in Ukraine will achieve its objectives.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces could use chemical weapons and that Ukraine takes this threat seriously, while President Zelensky did not say chemical weapons have already been used in his nightly address, according to Reuters.
- US Pentagon Press Secretary Kirby said they are aware of social media reports which claim Russian forces deployed a potential chemical munition in Mariupol, but added they cannot confirm it at this time and will continue to monitor the situation closely, according to Politico.
- UK Foreign Secretary Truss tweeted "Reports that Russian forces may have used chemical agents in an attack on the people of Mariupol. We are working urgently with partners to verify details", while she added "Any use of such weapons would be a callous escalation in this conflict and we will hold Putin and his regime to account."
- pro-Russian separatists forces in Donetsk say they did not use chemical weapons in Mariupol, Ukraine, via Reuters citing Ifx.
- Governor of Ukraine's Luhansk region said Russia is moving military vehicles closer to front lines in apparent preparation for assault, according to Reuters.
- Sources say they expect the build up of Russian aircraft, equipment and forces on the eastern-front to continue for at least the next two-weeks, via Politico.
- Russian State Security notes of the arrest of a member of the Ukrainian Right Sector extremist organization, who was reportedly preparing an act of sabotage in Russia, according to Al Jazeera.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- Eastward gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline have increased, via Reuters citing Gascade data.
- India is planning USD 2bln of additional exports to Russia and replace exports which were originally supplied by nations which have now halted exports to Russia, via Bloomberg.
- German gas reserves would last until late summer or early fall should Russia stop supplies now, according to Die Zeit citing a network regulator; German households would have to give up on heating privileges in case of a gas supply emergency. Gazprom Germania's biggest gas storage facility has storage levels of under 1%, will need to be increased significantly by November.
- Russia's Energy Ministry has suspended the monthly publication of oil production and export data, according to Interfax citing a letter
OTHER US assesses that Russian President Putin may boost efforts to interfere with US elections*, according to CNN.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are subdued, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, but off lows as participants await the US CPI metrics for fresh insight into the inflation narrative and for any read across to ongoing yield upside. * The breakdown features relatively broad-based losses as the CAC 40 is in-line after Monday's election inspired outperformance while Banking names lag initially in a pullback from that session’s strength while Energy & Tech fare better. * Stateside*, futures are attempting to move into positive territory, ES Unch., but are yet to find a robust foothold. * Click here for more detail.
FX Greenback grinds higher before US CPI with White House officials upping the ante for a hot set of inflation data, DXY eclipses last Friday's peak within a firmer 100.230-99.923 range. * Aussie resilient after increases in NAB business sentiment and conditions and Kiwi underpinned awaiting 25bp or 50bp from the RBNZ, overnight; AUD/USD bounces off 0.7400 and NZD/USD keeps grip of 0.6800 handle. * Euro holds above recent low and 2022 trough with some traction from Germany’s ZEW survey showing not as bad as feared economic sentiment and current conditions, EUR/USD above 1.0850 vs 1.0836 last Friday and 1.0806 y-t-d base. * Sterling treading water around 1.3000 after mixed UK jobs and earnings, Loonie looking for support via decent option expiry interest at 1.2650 or chart levels after dropping through 200 DMA before BoC on Wednesday. * Yen and Franc yield to divergent dynamics; USD/JPY poised below 2015 peak and USD/CHF rebounds from low 0.9300 zone. * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said FX stability is important but did not comment on FX levels, while he added they are watching closely with vigilance how FX moves could impact Japan's economy. Suzuki also noted that excess FX volatility and disorderly FX moves could have an adverse effect on Japan's economy*, while they will respond to FX as appropriate while communicating with the US and other countries. * NBP's Kotecki says that more interest rate increases are probable, according to PAP. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- USD/CAD: 1.2500-10 (570M), 1.2585 (310M), 1.2650 (1.51BN)
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Bonds bounce after sliding once more and setting fresh yield highs; 10 year T-note, Bunds and Gilts off new 119-10+, 154.27 and 118.42 cycle lows. * UK and German debt may be gleaning some comfort from solid covers at Schatz and 2032 DMO auctions. * Treasuries* await US CPI and 10 year supply. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks are continuing to regain composure after Monday's pressure, with WTI and Brent in proximity to highs of USD 97.72/bbl and USD 102.15/bbl respectively. * European Commission official said the EU repeated its call during a meeting with OPEC for oil producers to look at whether they can increase deliveries, according to Reuters. * US President Biden will on Tuesday lay out plans to extend the availability of higher biofuels-blended gasoline during the summer in a bit to control fuel costs, according to Reuters sources. * Spot gold and silver* are contained, particularly in the context of yesterday's price action, ahead of the key US events on the schedule. * Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK ministers were warned that gas and electricity bills are likely to increase by a further GBP 500 this autumn amid the Ukraine war, according to The Times.
NOTABLE DATA
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Feb) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.9%); HMRC Payrolls Change (Mar) 35k (Prev. 275k, Rev. 174k)
- UK Average Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Feb) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.8%)
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) -41.0 vs. Exp. -48.0 (Prev. -39.3); Survey Expectations (Apr) -43 (Prev. -38.7)
- UK BRC Retail Sales Like-For-Like YY (Mar) -0.4% (Prev. 2.7%)
- UK BRC Total Retail Sales rose YY (Mar) 3.1% (Prev. 6.7%)
- Barclaycard UK March Consumer Spending rose 17.7% compared to March 2019.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Former US Treasury official Michael Barr has reportedly emerged as the frontrunner for President Biden's pick for Vice-Chair of Supervision at the Fed, according to Politico.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* is firmer and is holding onto the USD 40k mark after pronounced pressure in yesterday's session saw a breach of the level and a subsequent fall to a USD 39.21k overnight low.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks followed suit to the losses across global counterparts amid higher yields and inflationary concerns. * ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness across defensives and tech but with losses in the broader market somewhat contained amid the improvement in NAB Business Confidence and Conditions. * Nikkei 225 declined despite recent currency depreciation and the ruling LDP seeking to provide cash handouts. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* were indecisive with early support in the former as gaming and internet stocks were boosted by China’s resumption of videogame approvals following a 9-month suspension. However, the gains for the Hong Kong benchmark were later pared and the mainland bourse was also cautious amid ongoing COVID woes.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 20bln net injection.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3795 vs exp. 6.3752 (prev. 6.3645)
- US State Department ordered all non-emergency US government employees and family members to leave Shanghai amid a surge in COVID-19 cases and the impact of restrictions from China's response, according to Reuters.
- Chinese Health Official says that COVID infections in Shanghai are yet to come under effective control; infections are likely to remain high over the coming days, via Reuters.
- Shenzhen Airport March Passenger ThroughPut -87.7% Y/Y, Mail and Cargo ThroughPut -12.2% Y/Y, via Reuters.
- Chinese Vice Finance Minister says China will speed up local government special bond issuance to spur investment.
NOTABLE APAC DATA
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Mar) 16 (Prev. 13)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Mar) 18 (Prev. 9)
- New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1) -40% (Prev. -28%)
- APAC stocks followed suit to the losses across global counterparts amid higher yields and inflationary concerns.
- Ukraine’s Azov regiment reported the use of chemical weapons by Russian forces in Mariupol; reports are yet to be officially verified.
- European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% yesterday.
- DXY sits on a 100 handle, antipodeans lead in the G10 FX space, price action otherwise contained.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI & ZEW, UK Labour Market Report, US CPI, Speeches from Fed's Barkin & Brainard, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany & US, Earnings from LVMH.
US TRADE US stocks declined on Monday with the NDX leading the losses amongst the major indices, weighed on by rising yields. Energy was the worst-performing sector as oil tumbled. * SPX -1.63% at 4,415, NDX -2.35% at 13,990, DJIA -1.19% at 34,308, R2K* -0.75% at 1,980.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed's Evans (2023 voter) said high prices will persist longer than he thought but are not permanent and the Fed has to reposition itself in response. Evans noted the neutral setting for monetary policy is 2.25-2.50% and thought they would be at neutral by March 2023 but would be okay too if they got there by December. Evans stated that not going too far, too quickly is crucial for optionality, while he added that a 50bps rate hike is worthy of consideration and possibly highly likely, according to Reuters.
- Former US Treasury official Michael Barr has reportedly emerged as the frontrunner for President Biden's pick for Vice-Chair of Supervision at the Fed, according to Politico.
- White House Economic Adviser Deese is expecting elevated CPI on Tuesday and lower inflation at the end of this year and next, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Austrian Chancellor Nehammer said he generally had no positive impression from talks with Russian President Putin, according to Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Ukraine’s Azov regiment reported the use of chemical weapons by Russian forces in Mariupol, although an independent journalist tweeted that this was very difficult to verify and that the only source reporting this so far is the Azov regiment with no independent/credible journalists currently working in Mariupol.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces could use chemical weapons and that Ukraine takes this threat seriously, while President Zelensky did not say chemical weapons have already been used in his nightly address, according to Reuters.
- US Pentagon Press Secretary Kirby said they are aware of social media reports which claim Russian forces deployed a potential chemical munition in Mariupol, but added they cannot confirm it at this time and will continue to monitor the situation closely, according to Politico.
- UK Foreign Secretary Truss tweeted "Reports that Russian forces may have used chemical agents in an attack on the people of Mariupol. We are working urgently with partners to verify details", while she added "Any use of such weapons would be a callous escalation in this conflict and we will hold Putin and his regime to account."
- Governor of Ukraine's Luhansk region said Russia is moving military vehicles closer to front lines in apparent preparation for assault, according to Reuters.
ENERGY/SANCTIONS
- EU's Borrell believes Russian oil sanctions will not stop Russia's army in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- White House said US President Biden made it clear to Indian PM Modi that the US would be happy to help India diversify its energy imports, while the White House didn’t disclose whether India made any commitments to President Biden on energy imports from Russia, according to Reuters.
OTHER US assesses that Russian President Putin may boost efforts to interfere with US elections*, according to CNN.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks followed suit to the losses across global counterparts amid higher yields and inflationary concerns. * ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness across defensives and tech but with losses in the broader market somewhat contained amid the improvement in NAB Business Confidence and Conditions. * Nikkei 225 declined despite recent currency depreciation and the ruling LDP seeking to provide cash handouts. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive with early support in the former as gaming and internet stocks were boosted by China’s resumption of videogame approvals following a 9-month suspension. However, the gains for the Hong Kong benchmark were later pared and the mainland bourse was also cautious amid ongoing COVID woes. * US equity futures extended on losses amid the higher yield environment and ahead of the US inflation data. * European equity futures* are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% yesterday.
FX DXY reclaimed the 100 milestone amid firmer yields but with price action rangebound as participants brace for the incoming US inflation data which is expected to heat up from the prior month. * EUR/USD was subdued with the single currency not helped by the geopolitical situation in Ukraine where there were unconfirmed reports of Russian chemical weapon use. * GBP/USD traded rangebound on a 1.30 handle. * USD/JPY held on to the 125.00 handle but is off multi-year highs as Japanese officials continue their jawboning. * Antipodeans are flat with AUD/USD and NZD/USD kept afloat by support around 0.7400 and 0.6800, respectively. * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said FX stability is important but did not comment on FX levels, while he added they are watching closely with vigilance how FX moves could impact Japan's economy. Suzuki also noted that excess FX volatility and disorderly FX moves could have an adverse effect on Japan's economy*, while they will respond to FX as appropriate while communicating with the US and other countries.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were pressured amid the higher yields and inflationary concerns, while Amazon's USD 12.75bln seven-part bond sale added to this week’s duration-heavy treasury supply. * Bund futures continued their recent downtrend with prices below 155.00 due to further upside in global yields. * 10yr JGBs* were lacklustre as the 10yr JGB yield sat near the BoJ’s cap and after mixed 5yr auction results.
COMMODITIES Crude futures found reprieve from yesterday's losses with Brent crude back above the USD 100/bbl level. * OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said they could potentially see the loss in excess of 7mln BPD of Russian oil and other liquid exports, due to current and future sanctions or other voluntary action, according to Reuters. * European Commission official said the EU repeated its call during a meeting with OPEC for oil producers to look at whether they can increase deliveries, according to Reuters. * Italian PM Draghi confirmed Italy signed an agreement on bilateral cooperation on energy with Algeria in which Eni (ENI IM) and Algeria's Sonotrach have reached a deal to raise Algerian gas exports to Italy, according to Reuters. * Spot gold eked marginal gains with the precious metal contained amid a steady greenback ahead of US CPI data. * Copper* nursed some losses overnight after prices rebounded from a base at the USD 4.63/lb level.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were subdued overnight after falling below the USD 40,000 level.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 20bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 20bln net injection.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3795 vs exp. 6.3752 (prev. 6.3645)
- US State Department ordered all non-emergency US government employees and family members to leave Shanghai amid a surge in COVID-19 cases and the impact of restrictions from China's response, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Australian NAB Business Confidence* (Mar) 16 (Prev. 13)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions* (Mar) 18 (Prev. 9)
- New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence* (Q1) -40% (Prev. -28%)
EUROPENOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK ministers were warned that gas and electricity bills are likely to increase by a further GBP 500 this autumn amid the Ukraine war, according to The Times.
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales Like-For-Like YY (Mar) -0.4% (Prev. 2.7%)
- UK BRC Total Retail Sales rose YY (Mar) 3.1% (Prev. 6.7%)
- Barclaycard UK March Consumer Spending rose 17.7% compared to March 2019.
- European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, with benchmarks well off lows in a choppy and yield-driven morning; US futures are in-fitting with NQ lagging amid the rate environment
- CAC 40 +0.7% is the notable outperformer amid the first round of the French election where incumbent-Macron came out on top; albeit, polls between him and Le Pen for the run-off are tight
- DXY is off best levels ahead of Fed speak today and CPI Tuesday, JPY remains pressured while EUR is relieved to see Macron ahead
- Crude benchmarks are pressured amid the escalating Shanghai COVID situation offsetting any fresh geopolitical premia
- Russian President Putin is believed to have set himself four weeks to achieve some sort of a victory, ahead of the May 9th Victory Day holiday
- Looking ahead, highlights include Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans.
As of 11:20BST/06:20ET
LOOKING AHEAD* Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said they should not lose the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war, while Zelensky separately commented that he is not confident that Ukraine forces will receive what they need from the US to succeed in the war against Russia, according to a CBS ’60 Minutes’ interview.
- Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange with Russia on Saturday which was the third such swap since the start of the war. It was also reported that there were nine trains available for use for evacuation from the Luhansk region on Sunday, according to the regional governor, who added that more evacuations of people from settlements are needed, according to Reuters.
- Austrian Chancellor Nehammer will travel to Russia on Monday to meet with Russian President Putin following the Austrian Chancellor’s visit to Ukraine over the weekend where he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, according to Reuters; to speak at 17:00BST following talks. Russian Kremlin adds that Austria requested a closed format and no statement is planned.
- Ukrainian minister Stefanishyna expects Ukraine to be given EU candidate country status in June and said that Ukraine is “ready to move fast” with its application to join the EU, according to REPUBLICWORLD.COM.
- Ukraine Deputy PM says nine humanitarian corridors have been agreed, including Mariupol, via AJA Breaking.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian President Putin is believed to have set himself four weeks to achieve some sort of a victory in Ukraine before the big Russian “Victory Day” holiday on May 9th, according to The Times on Friday. There were also reports in Axios that the May 9th Russian holiday will be a pivotal and dangerous deadline.
- Russian Ministry of Defence alleged that Kyiv is preparing a mass murder of civilians in Luhansk with support from the West, according to Sputnik.
- Russian Republic of Chechnya head Kadyrov said there will be an offensive not only on Mariupol but on other Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed with German Chancellor Scholz anti-Russian sanctions, as well as defence and financial support for Ukraine. German Chancellor Scholz called for Russia to immediately pull its troops back and said that European borders must remain untouched, while he added that those who committed war crimes must be held responsible and that it is right Germany supplies Ukraine with defence weapons which it will continue doing so, according to Reuters.
- White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said Russia’s systematic targeting of civilians in Ukraine constitutes war crimes and that Russia’s new commander in charge of the Ukrainian invasion, General Dvornikov, will author crimes and brutality against Ukrainian civilians. Sullivan added that they will get Ukraine the weapons it needs and are in talks with European allies about reducing dependence on Russian oil, according to Reuters.
- UK PM Johnson said during a surprise visit to Kyiv that they will intensify sanctions against Russia week by week, while the UK will send 120 armoured vehicles and anti-ship missile systems to Ukraine and will guarantee USD 500mln in World Bank lending to Ukraine, according to Reuters and AFP.
- UK military intelligence said Russian armed forces are seeking to bolster troops with personnel discharged from service since 2012 in response to mounting losses and that efforts to generate more fighting power include trying to recruit from the unrecognised Transnistria region of Moldova. UK military intelligence also noted that Russia’s departure from northern Ukraine left evidence of disproportionate targeting of non-combatants and that Russian forces continue to attack infrastructure targets with a high risk of collateral harm to civilians, according to Reuters.
- European Commission President von der Leyen said the EC wants to pledge EUR 1bln to support Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- EU Foreign Policy Chief Borrell said the EU will soon convene a military committee to discuss the supply of weapons to Ukraine and that they will discuss further steps with EU ministers at the Foreign Affairs Council on Monday.
- Slovakia’s Interior Minister said Slovakia is negotiating with Ukraine on the possible sale of self-propelled howitzers Zuzana and could also send MiG-19 fighter jets to Ukraine although this option is not yet in play, according to Interfax.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- EU member states remain at loggerheads regarding a Russian energy ban with the Hungarian government noting that targeting Russia’s oil and gas exports is a red line, while it was also reported that discussion of a Russian oil ban will only be raised informally for broad discussion during the EU foreign ministers meeting on Monday, according to FT.
- One proposal under consideration, at today's discussion of EU foreign ministers, is some form of tariff on Russian oil, according to Politico citing diplomats; but, sharp divisions remain on the issue.
- Irish Foreign Minister Coveney says the European Commission is working on an oil embargo on Russia, as a part of the potential next sanctions package.
- Hungary says it will not be backing down at today's EU meeting on its refusal to impose sanctions on Russian energy imports, according to Sky News Arabia.
- EU is banning tyre imports from Russia, according to Nokian Tyres.
- EU added Sberbank chief Gref and other oligarchs to its sanctions list on Friday, while Russian President Putin's daughters have also been added to the sanctions list, according to Reuters.
- BaFin ordered VTB Bank Europe not to take instructions from its Moscow-based parent and said VTB Bank no longer has control of its European arm, while savers with VTB Europe continue to have access to their funds, according to Reuters.
- Huawei is reportedly suspending all orders in Russia due to fear of secondary sanctions by the US, according to Game News 24.
- Eastward gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline have increased, via Reuters citing Gascade data.
SOVEREIGN/FUND/OTHER
- Russian Finance Minister said Russia has been fulfilling its foreign debt obligations, according to Sputnik.
- Russia will boost its government reserve fund by RUB 273.4bln or around USD 3.4bln to “ensure the stability of the economy in the face of external sanctions”, according to a Bloomberg report citing the Kremlin.
- World Bank forecasts Ukraine GDP output to shrink by 45.1% this year amid high uncertainty regarding the duration and destruction of the war, while it sees Russia’s economy to contract 11.2% this year, according to Reuters.
- CDS panel has ruled that Russian Railways are in default and as such, contracts for Russian Railways will be triggered and paid out after missing a coupon payment in March, via Bloomberg.
OTHER Iranian President Raisi said Iran will not back down one iota from asserting its nuclear rights which should be respected by all parties in Vienna talks and stated that Iran’s nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, according to Times of Israel. * Majority of Iranian parliamentarians in a letter to Iranian President Raisi, demanded legal assurances by Washington with Congress approval that the US will not exit the nuclear deal if it is revived, while they suggested that the trigger mechanism should be arranged to prevent the US from exiting the deal again. Furthermore, they said that Iran should be permitted to export oil to any country and receive money through the banking system, according to Reuters. * Iranian Foreign Minister said there is no final text of the agreement in Vienna and we will not back down from our red lines, via Al Jazerra; adding, that what remains between Iran and the US is more than one issue. * Finland’s Centre Party, which is part of the five-party ruling coalition, rallied around a potential NATO membership bid in what is another sign the country is nearing an application to join the alliance, according to Bloomberg. * China delivered HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems to Russian ally Serbia in a semi-secret operation during the weekend* which was being referred to as a veiled operation, according to the Independent. * In an apparent show of force to deter potential provocations by North Korea, USS Abraham Lincoln is set to enter the international waters of the East Sea later this week, according to Yonhap sources.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, with benchmarks well off lows in a choppy and yield-driven morning * The CAC 40 +0.7% is the notable outperformer amid the first round of the French election where incumbent-Macron came out on top; albeit, polls between him and Le Pen for the run-off are tight * Stateside, US futures are subdued and given the rate environment the NQ -0.7% lags its peers, ES* -0.3% * Click here for more detail.
FX Buck off best levels ahead of Fed speakers later today and US CPI data on Tuesday, as DXY slips back below 100.000. * Yen continues to underperform as BoJ reiterates easy policy stance and only expresses concern about its rate of decline not level, USD/JPY up to fresh 2022 high near 125.50. * Euro relieved to see French President Macron emerged ahead of Le Pen after round one, EUR/USD reclaims 1.0900+ status. * Aussie undermined by risk aversion and more resilient Kiwi pre-RBNZ, Loonie contains oil related losses ahead of BoC on Wednesday; AUD/USD sub-0.7450, AUD/NZD under 1.0900 and USD/CAD pivoting 1.2600 as 200 DMA caps upside again. * Nokkie* hit by Brent decline and sub-forecast Norwegian inflation data, EUR/NOK near top of 9.5630-9.4695 range. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Yet another dead cat bounce for bonds as the bear run continues, with T-notes down to 119-17 and the 10 year yield topping 2.75% in advance of more Fed rhetoric. * Bunds probe Fib resistance at 76bp to open scope for a higher retracement level at 81bp ahead of the ECB on Thursday. * Gilts* labour just above 119.00 before UK jobs and earnings tomorrow and inflation on Wednesday. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are pressured with focus on the COVID situation in China, specifically Shanghai City * Currently, the benchmarks lie near session troughs of USD 95.20/bbl and USD 99.79/bbl respectively, as Brent lost the USD 100/bbl handle after slipping from earlier highs of USD 103.30/bbl. * White House Press Secretary said she is unaware of the US considering an easing of oil sanctions on Venezuela, while the White House said it is continuing to consider a gas tax holiday, according to Reuters. * Kuwait raised May crude prices to Asia to record levels, according to Reuters citing the pricing document. * Spot gold* is bid and derived impetus from a break of USD 1950/oz, lifting to session highs of USD 1959.40/oz; though, still around USD 5/oz shy of late-March highs. * Click here for more detail.
FRENCH ELECTION French President Macron (27.6%) and far-right Le Pen (23.4%) are set for a run-off in the presidential election on April 24th and all major candidates aside from far-right candidate Zemmour have called for a vote against Le Pen. Furthermore, an IFOP poll showed that Macron would win the second round with 51% of the vote, while Ipsos and Opinionway polls showed Macron would win with 54% vs Le Pen at 46% in the second round*, according to Reuters. * French Election Poll, second round (i.e. run-off): Macron 55% (prev. 54%) vs Le Pen 45% (prev. 46%), Opinionway-Kea partners poll
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Sunak tweeted that he wrote to PM Johnson asking to refer his ministerial declarations to an independent advisor on ministers’ interests, while Sunak said he has always followed the rules and hopes such a review would provide further clarity. There were also prior reports that UK Chancellor Sunak considered resigning last week due to criticism regarding his wife’s tax status, according to the Sunday Times.
- A think tank warned that underlying UK wage growth was lower than headline figures, according to the FT.
NOTABLE DATA
- UK GDP Estimate MM (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.8%); YY (Feb) 9.5% vs. Exp. 9.5% (Prev. 10.0%)
- UK GDP Est 3M/3M (Feb) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.1%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Mester (2022, 2024 voter) said it will take some time to reduce inflation and that inflation will likely remain above 2% in 2023, but the trajectory will be lower. Mester added that she is optimistic the Fed can remove emergency levels of accommodation and reduce excess demand without triggering a recession, while she noted there is an increased risk of a recession, but the modal forecast is for the expansion to continue, according to a CBS interview.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* remains under pressure and in proximity to the overnight sub-USD 42k low * Elon Musk tweeted that the Twitter Blue subscription price should probably be about USD 2/month and suggested "maybe even an option to pay in Doge?".
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly cautious amid the higher yield environment and COVID-19 woes in China. * ASX 200 attempted to buck the trend helped by strength in gold-related stocks and the top-weighted financial sector, while M&A newsflow and campaigning ahead of the May 21st election provided mild tailwinds. * Nikkei 225 was subdued after failing to retain the 27,000 status despite the recent currency weakening. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* underperformed with Hong Kong pressured by weakness in tech and with the mainland suffering from COVID-19 concerns after a fresh record number of daily infections in Shanghai.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3645 vs exp. 6.3647 (prev. 6.3563)
- Senior official in Beijing said overall monetary policy in April will be slightly looser than in the previous three months, according to SGH Macro Advisors.
- China has reportedly accelerated its nuclear arsenal build-up due to a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the US, according to WSJ citing people with knowledge of the Chinese leadership’s thinking.
- Shanghai reported 914 new symptomatic and 25,173 new asymptomatic cases for a new record of daily infections on April 10th, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that Shanghai and Guangzhou plan more mass COVID-19 testing, according to Bloomberg.
- Jinshan, Shanghai is publishing a list of residential units which are allowed to ease lockdown restrictions, via Reuters.
- Australian PM Morrison called the federal election to be conducted on May 21st and warned voters not to risk a change to an “uncertain” future under the opposition, according to the Guardian.
- BoJ's Osaka branch manager says it is important for FX rates to move stably and reflect fundamentals.
NOTABLE APAC DATA
- Chinese CPI MM (Mar) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%); YY (Mar) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Mar) 8.3% vs. Exp. 7.9% (Prev. 8.8%)
- APAC stocks were mostly cautious amid the higher yield environment and COVID-19 woes in China with a fresh record number of daily infections in Shanghai.
- Russian President Putin is believed to have given himself four weeks to achieve some sort of a victory.
- French President Macron (27.6%) and far-right Le Pen (23.4%) are set for a run-off in the presidential election on April 24th.
- European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 1.5% on Friday.
- DXY was choppy below 100, EUR/USD faded opening gains post-election as traders eye the second round.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese Aggregate Financing and M2, UK GDP, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans.
US TRADE US stocks finished mixed on Friday in quiet newsflow in which the Dow Jones closed up, while S&P and Russell were lower with the Nasdaq underperforming while Growth (IVW) names lost 1% and Value (IVE) stocks were bid. * SPX -0.20% at 4,491, NDX -1.41% at 14,327, DJIA +0.40% at 34,721, R2K* -0.82% at 1,993.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Mester (2022, 2024 voter) said it will take some time to reduce inflation and that inflation will likely remain above 2% in 2023, but the trajectory will be lower. Mester added that she is optimistic the Fed can remove emergency levels of accommodation and reduce excess demand without triggering a recession, while she noted there is an increased risk of a recession, but the modal forecast is for the expansion to continue, according to a CBS interview.
FRENCH ELECTION French President Macron (27.6%) and far-right Le Pen (23.4%) are set for a run-off in the presidential election on April 24th and all major candidates aside from far-right candidate Zemmour have called for a vote against Le Pen. Furthermore, an IFOP poll showed that Macron would win the second round with 51% of the vote, while Ipsos and Opinionway polls showed Macron would win with 54% vs Le Pen at 46% in the second round*, according to Reuters.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said they should not lose the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war, while Zelensky separately commented that he is not confident that Ukraine forces will receive what they need from the US to succeed in the war against Russia, according to a CBS ’60 Minutes’ interview.
- Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange with Russia on Saturday which was the third such swap since the start of the war. It was also reported that there were nine trains available for use for evacuation from the Luhansk region on Sunday, according to the regional governor, who added that more evacuations of people from settlements are needed, according to Reuters.
- Austrian Chancellor Nehammer will travel to Russia on Monday to meet with Russian President Putin following the Austrian Chancellor’s visit to Ukraine over the weekend where he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian minister Stefanishyna expects Ukraine to be given EU candidate country status in June and said that Ukraine is “ready to move fast” with its application to join the EU, according to REPUBLICWORLD.COM.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russian President Putin is believed to have set himself four weeks to achieve some sort of a victory in Ukraine before the big Russian “Victory Day” holiday on May 9th, according to The Times on Friday. There were also reports in Axios that the May 9th Russian holiday will be a pivotal and dangerous deadline.
- Russian Ministry of Defence alleged that Kyiv is preparing a mass murder of civilians in Luhansk with support from the West, according to Sputnik.
- Russian Republic of Chechnya head Kadyrov said there will be an offensive not only on Mariupol but on other Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed with German Chancellor Scholz anti-Russian sanctions, as well as defence and financial support for Ukraine. German Chancellor Scholz called for Russia to immediately pull its troops back and said that European borders must remain untouched, while he added that those who committed war crimes must be held responsible and that it is right Germany supplies Ukraine with defence weapons which it will continue doing so, according to Reuters.
- White House National Security Adviser Sullivan said Russia’s systematic targeting of civilians in Ukraine constitutes war crimes and that Russia’s new commander in charge of the Ukrainian invasion, General Dvornikov, will author crimes and brutality against Ukrainian civilians. Sullivan added that they will get Ukraine the weapons it needs and are in talks with European allies about reducing dependence on Russian oil, according to Reuters.
- UK PM Johnson said during a surprise visit to Kyiv that they will intensify sanctions against Russia week by week, while the UK will send 120 armoured vehicles and anti-ship missile systems to Ukraine and will guarantee USD 500mln in World Bank lending to Ukraine, according to Reuters and AFP.
- UK military intelligence said Russian armed forces are seeking to bolster troops with personnel discharged from service since 2012 in response to mounting losses and that efforts to generate more fighting power include trying to recruit from the unrecognised Transnistria region of Moldova. UK military intelligence also noted that Russia’s departure from northern Ukraine left evidence of disproportionate targeting of non-combatants and that Russian forces continue to attack infrastructure targets with a high risk of collateral harm to civilians, according to Reuters.
- European Commission President von der Leyen said the EC wants to pledge EUR 1bln to support Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- EU Foreign Policy Chief Borrell said the EU will soon convene a military committee to discuss the supply of weapons to Ukraine and that they will discuss further steps with EU ministers at the Foreign Affairs Council on Monday.
- Slovakia’s Interior Minister said Slovakia is negotiating with Ukraine on the possible sale of self-propelled howitzers Zuzana and could also send MiG-19 fighter jets to Ukraine although this option is not yet in play, according to Interfax.
ENERGY/SANCTIONS
- EU member states remain at loggerheads regarding a Russian energy ban with the Hungarian government noting that targeting Russia’s oil and gas exports is a red line, while it was also reported that discussion of a Russian oil ban will only be raised informally for broad discussion during the EU foreign ministers meeting on Monday, according to FT.
- EU is banning tyre imports from Russia, according to Nokian Tyres.
- EU added Sberbank chief Gref and other oligarchs to its sanctions list on Friday, while Russian President Putin's daughters have also been added to the sanctions list, according to Reuters.
- BaFin ordered VTB Bank Europe not to take instructions from its Moscow-based parent and said VTB Bank no longer has control of its European arm, while savers with VTB Europe continue to have access to their funds, according to Reuters.
- Huawei is reportedly suspending all orders in Russia due to fear of secondary sanctions by the US, according to Game News 24.
SOVEREIGN/FUND/OTHER
- Russian Finance Minister said Russia has been fulfilling its foreign debt obligations, according to Sputnik.
- Russia will boost its government reserve fund by RUB 273.4bln or around USD 3.4bln to “ensure the stability of the economy in the face of external sanctions”, according to a Bloomberg report citing the Kremlin.
- CBR relaxed some FX regulation rules and individuals will be able to withdraw Euros from accounts from April 11th. The overall limit for withdrawing FX cash remains unchanged at USD 10,000 until September 9th and banks will be allowed to sell FX cash to individuals from April 18th, according to Reuters.
- World Bank forecasts Ukraine GDP output to shrink by 45.1% this year amid high uncertainty regarding the duration and destruction of the war, while it sees Russia’s economy to contract 11.2% this year, according to Reuters.
OTHER Iranian President Raisi said Iran will not back down one iota from asserting its nuclear rights which should be respected by all parties in Vienna talks and stated that Iran’s nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, according to Times of Israel. * Majority of Iranian parliamentarians in a letter to Iranian President Raisi, demanded legal assurances by Washington with Congress approval that the US will not exit the nuclear deal if it is revived, while they suggested that the trigger mechanism should be arranged to prevent the US from exiting the deal again. Furthermore, they said that Iran should be permitted to export oil to any country and receive money through the banking system, according to Reuters. * Finland’s Centre Party, which is part of the five-party ruling coalition, rallied around a potential NATO membership bid in what is another sign the country is nearing an application to join the alliance, according to Bloomberg. * China delivered HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems to Russian ally Serbia in a semi-secret operation during the weekend* which was being referred to as a veiled operation, according to the Independent.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were mostly cautious amid the higher yield environment and COVID-19 woes in China. * ASX 200 attempted to buck the trend helped by strength in gold-related stocks and the top-weighted financial sector, while M&A newsflow and campaigning ahead of the May 21st election provided mild tailwinds. * Nikkei 225 was subdued after failing to retain the 27,000 status despite the recent currency weakening. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed with Hong Kong pressured by weakness in tech and with the mainland suffering from COVID-19 concerns after a fresh record number of daily infections in Shanghai. * US equity futures remained subdued following last Friday’s negative bias as markets brace for US CPI data. * European equity futures* are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 1.5% on Friday.
FX DXY was choppy slightly below the 100 level, with early losses later reversed as yields continued to rise. * EUR/USD faded the opening gains from the first round of the French Presidential Election which was led by President Macron who is set to face Le Pen in the second round, while polls point to a Macron win at the run-off. * GBP/USD was subdued with focus on politics amid a tax row related to Chancellor Sunak’s wife. * USD/JPY resumed its advances and briefly tested the 125.00 level as the BoJ stuck with its dovish tone. * Antipodeans* were lacklustre owing to the dollar strength, downside in oil prices and the risk averse mood.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures fell beneath 120.00 as the US 10yr yield rose above 2.75% for the first time since 2019 and the 5yr yield printed its highest since May 2018 amid expectations for a hot CPI print on Tuesday. * Bund futures extended below the 156.00 level amid broad upside in global yields. * 10yr JGBs* were lacklustre as the 10yr yield remained near the BoJ’s cap but with downside in prices stemmed as the BoJ reiterated its dovish rhetoric.
COMMODITIES Crude futures declined in which Brent crude briefly fell beneath USD 100/bbl amid China's COVID-19 woes. * US Baker Hughes Rig Count (w/e Apr 8th): Oil +13 at 546, Nat Gas +3 at 141, and Total +16 at 689. * White House Press Secretary said she is unaware of the US considering an easing of oil sanctions on Venezuela, while the White House said it is continuing to consider a gas tax holiday, according to Reuters. * Kuwait raised May crude prices to Asia to record levels, according to Reuters citing the pricing document. * Spot gold was rangebound with price action hampered by resistance at USD 1950/oz and a firmer dollar. * Copper* weakened amid the risk-aversion and underperformance in China due to ongoing restrictions.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* prices were lacklustre overnight and briefly retreated beneath the 42,000 level. * Elon Musk tweeted that the Twitter Blue subscription price should probably be about USD 2/month and suggested "maybe even an option to pay in Doge?".
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3645 vs exp. 6.3647 (prev. 6.3563)
- Senior official in Beijing said overall monetary policy in April will be slightly looser than in the previous three months, according to SGH Macro Advisors.
- China has reportedly accelerated its nuclear arsenal buildup due to a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the US, according to WSJ citing people with knowledge of the Chinese leadership’s thinking.
- Shanghai reported 914 new symptomatic and 25,173 new asymptomatic cases for a new record of daily infections on April 10th, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that Shanghai and Guangzhou plan more mass COVID-19 testing, according to Bloomberg.
- Australian PM Morrison called the federal election to be conducted on May 21st and warned voters not to risk a change to an “uncertain” future under the opposition, according to the Guardian.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- Chinese CPI MM * (Mar) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%)
- Chinese CPI YY * (Mar) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Chinese PPI YY * (Mar) 8.3% vs. Exp. 7.9% (Prev. 8.8%)
EUROPENOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Sunak tweeted that he wrote to PM Johnson asking to refer his ministerial declarations to an independent advisor on ministers’ interests, while Sunak said he has always followed the rules and hopes such a review would provide further clarity. There were also prior reports that UK Chancellor Sunak considered resigning last week due to criticism regarding his wife’s tax status, according to the Sunday Times.
- A think tank warned that underlying UK wage growth was lower than headline figures, according to the FT.
- European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%, in a morning of quiet newsflow
- US futures have given up some of their initial upside, but remain modestly firmer, ES +0.2%
- DXY touches 100.00 lifted amid the ongoing rise in yields with FX peers mixed, RUB resilient despite emergency rate cut
- Crude is moving in-line with broader sentiment awaiting Russia-Ukraine updates with online talks ongoing
- Looking ahead, highlights include the Canadian Labour Market report and ECB's Panetta (Note, the ECB is in its quiet period)
As of 11:10BST/06:10ET
LOOKING AHEAD* Canadian Labour Market report and ECB's Panetta (Note, the ECB is in its quiet period) * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukraine intends to establish up to 10 humanitarian corridors on Friday, those leaving Mariupol will need to use private vehicles.
- Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says negotiations with Russia continue online constantly, but the mood changed after Bucha events, via Reuters.
- Kremlin says it does not understand EU concerns about European countries paying for Russian gas in RUB, adds Commission President von der Leyen probably needs more information. On planned EU ban of Russian coal, says coal is in high demand. Special operation in Ukraine could be completed in the foreseeable future, given aims are being achieved and work is being carried out by peace negotiators and the military.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- EU ready to release EUR 500mln for arms to Ukraine, according to AFP citing EU chief.
- Russia says it has destroyed a training centre for foreign mercenaries within Ukraine, was located north of Odesa, via Tass.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- Japan's Industry Ministry plans to reduce Russian coal imports gradually while looking for alternative suppliers, according to Reuters.
- Ukraine PM says they have large stocks of grain, cereals and vegetable oil. Are able to provide themselves with food; this year's harvest will be 20% less YY.
- Ukraine gas grid warns that Russian actions could impact gas flows to Europe, via Reuters.
- German President Steinmeier has called for a war crimes tribunal against Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, via Spiegel.
- EU has begun work on the sixth package of Russia sanctions, according to a Bloomberg reporter; reporter "struggles to see how further energy sanctions can be avoided".
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%, bouncing in a morning of quiet newsflow with the broader tone modestly risk-on. * Albeit, benchmarks are still negative on the week and some way from earlier WTD peaks; unsurprisingly, sectors are all in the green with defensive-bias names lagging. * Stateside*, futures are similarly in the green, ES +0.2%, though magnitudes are more contained ahead of a limited US schedule to round off the week. * Click here for more detail.
FX DXY touches 100.000 as US Treasury yields continue to soar and curve steepen, but unable to break barrier. * Kiwi underperforms awaiting NZIER Q1 survey, while Aussie holds up better after hawkish warning in RBA FSR; NZD/USD around 0.6950, AUD/USD nearer 0.7460. * Yen sub-124.00 as Japanese export supply is absorbed, Euro supported by bids circa 1.0850 and Sterling treading water above 1.3000. * Rouble* relatively resilient in the face of 300 bp CBR rate reduction as it remains above pre-conflict highs. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Choppy trade in bonds approaching the end of another very bearish week. * Bunds and Gilts nurse losses mostly above par around 157.00 and 120.00 handles vs fresh cycle lows of 156.40 and 119.83. * US Treasuries* most seeing red, but curve less steep in correction after hawkish FOMC minutes and Fed commentary, via Brainard and Bullard especially * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are bolstered amid broader sentiment, though crude/geopolitical specific developments have been limited * In-fitting with equities, the benchmarks are negative on the week and some way shy of best levels as such. * New York will suspend the state gas tax from June 1st to December 31st, according to Reuters. * Barclays raises oil forecasts by USD 7-8/bb assuming no material disruption in Russian supplies beyond Q2 2022, according to Reuters. * Spot gold is marginally firmer, but, remains drawn to USD 1930/oz after marginally eclipsing the level overnight; base metals* bid in-line with sentiment. * Click here for more detail.
CENTRAL BANKS RBA Financial Stability Review: important that borrowers are prepared for an increase interest rates; global asset markets are vulnerable to larger-than-expected rate increases, via Reuters. * RBI leave rates unchanged as expected, retains "accommodative" stance as expected; will focus on withdrawing accommodation going forward. RBI is to restore LAF corridor to 50bps and floor to be constituted by SDF, according to Reuters. * CBRT April survey sees Turkish End-Year CPI at 46.44% (prev. 40.47%) * CNB Minutes (March): Dedek and Michl voted in the minority for stable rates. Board assessed risks and uncertainties of winter forecast as being markedly inflationary, particularly in short-term * CBR cuts its Key Rate to 17.00% (prev. 20.00%) as of April 11th; holds open the prospect of further key rate reduction at its upcoming meetings.*
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Canadian budget sees 2022/23 deficit of CAD 52.8bln vs CAD 58.4bln in Dec; sees 2021/22 deficit of CAD 113.8bln vs CAD 144.5bln. Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* is contained and unable to derive traction either way from the broader risk tone. * Strike payment platform launches Shopify (SHOP) integration, which allows merchants to accept Bitcoin (BTC), according to Bloomberg.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were choppy and eventually conformed to a mixed picture; some weakness was seen shortly after the Chinese cash open. * ASX 200 bucked the trend and was propped up by its energy and gold names. * Nikkei 225 was choppy and moved in tandem with action in USD/JPY whilst the KOSPI was weighed on by its chip and telecoms sectors. * Hang Seng remained pressured by losses across its large constituents - Alibaba and JD.com. * Shanghai Comp* swung between gains and losses but overall remained supported by reports from China's Securities Journal which noted of a potential PBoC RRR in Q2.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai will continue a new round of citywide COVID tests on Friday as the number of positive cases has remained high. There’s one critical case, according to Global Times.
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3653 vs exp. 6.3658 (prev. 6.3659)
- RBI Governor Das says India's growth outlook assumes oil at USD 100/bbl, according to Reuters.
- APAC stocks were choppy and eventually conformed to a mixed picture.
- Shanghai will continue a new round of citywide COVID tests on Friday as the number of positive cases has remained high.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.8% after the cash market closed lower by 0.6% yesterday.
- DXY continues to eye 100 to the upside, whilst USD/JPY ventured above 124 before retreating once again.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Labour Market Report, ECB's Panetta.
US TRADE US stocks finished the day mostly higher with the exception of the Russell, although there was no specific catalyst for the afternoon recovery. * SPX +0.44% at 4,500, NDX +0.23% at 14,531, DJIA +0.25% at 34,583, R2K* -0.50% at 2,007. * Twitter (TWTR) plans to host Elon Musk for a question-and-answer session with employees after a week of internal outcries over his appointment to the social network’s board of directors, Washington Post reports. * Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk says its humanoid will likely be in production next year, whilst Cybertruck will be in production at Giga Texas factory from next year.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Canadian budget sees 2022/23 deficit of CAD 52.8bln vs CAD 58.4bln in Dec; sees 2021/22 deficit of CAD 113.8bln vs CAD 144.5bln. (Click here for the release)
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINEDEFENCE/MILITARY
- Kremlin Spokesman says we have had significant losses of troops, via Reuters
- EU ready to release EUR 500mln for arms to Ukraine, according to AFP citing EU chief.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
- EU backs Russian coal embargo in the fifth round of sanctions, according to Reuters.
- EU approves EUR 155bln in French aid for firms hit by Russia invasion, according to Reuters.
- Japan's Industry Ministry plans to reduce Russian coal imports gradually while looking for alternative suppliers, according to Reuters.
OTHER* China Foreign Minister says Pelosi's planned Taiwan trip 'malicious provocation', according to Reuters.
CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Evans (2023 voter) said we are probably going to get to neutral setting by the end of this year or early next; optimistic we can get to neutral, look around and think there's not much more to go, via Reuters. * Fed's Bostic (2024 voter) said a lack of employment mobility costs the entire economy; Fed's goal is try to have sustaining growth that extends for as long as possible, according to Reuters. * RBA Financial Stability Review: important that borrowers are prepared for an increase interest rates; global asset markets are vulnerable to larger-than-expected rate increases, via Reuters. * RBI leave rates unchanged as expected*, retains "accommodative" stance as expected; will focus on withdrawing accommodation going forward. RBI is to restore LAF corridor to 50bps and floor to be constituted by SDF, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks were choppy and eventually conformed to a mixed picture; some weakness was seen shortly after the Chinese cash open. * ASX 200 bucked the trend and was propped up by its energy and gold names. * Nikkei 225 was choppy and moved in tandem with action in USD/JPY whilst the KOSPI was weighed on by its chip and telecoms sectors. * Hang Seng remained pressured by losses across its large constituents - Alibaba and JD.com. * Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses but overall remained supported by reports from China's Securities Journal which noted of a potential PBoC RRR in Q2. * US equity futures trade with little in the way of firm direction. * European equity futures* are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.8% after the cash market closed lower by 0.6% yesterday.
FX FX markets were relatively quiet for most of the night but the Buck later picked up some traction. * DXY saw some modest early weakness but then drifted towards overnight highs of 99.914. * EUR/USD and GBP/USD subsequently moved lower, with the former moving closer to its YTD low at 1.0804. * AUD was resilient after the RBA Financial Stability Review suggested its important that borrowers are prepared for an increase in interest rates. * USD/JPY* popped above 124.00 in early APAC trade to a high of 124.23 before meeting sellers, whilst some cited hawkish commentary from an ex-BoJ official.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were offered shortly after the Chinese cash open, with the corresponding cash yield rising to 2.66% - with the current YTD peak at 2.6730% * Bund futures were more contained vs the US and traded roughly within yesterday's Wall Street range. * 10yr JGB yields* were stable throughout the session but not far off the BoJ's 0.25% cap.
COMMODITIES Crude futures gave up mild initial gains as China's COVID update was once again bleak, whilst Shanghai will continue a new round of citywide COVID tests on Friday, with one critical case reported in the city. * New York will suspend the state gas tax from June 1st to December 31st, according to Reuters. * Barclays raises oil forecasts by USD 7-8/bb assuming no material disruption in Russian supplies beyond Q2 2022, according to Reuters. * Spot gold moved towards session lows alongside the rising Dollar, whilst the yellow metal earlier tested its 21 DMA at around 1,935/oz. * Copper* traded on either side of the flat mark amid the indecisive mood across the market. * Trafigura is set to take large amounts of zinc from LME registered warehouses; LME says it is aware of the tightness in the Zinc market and is monitoring all metals to ensure an orderly market, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO Bitcoin was stable around 43.5k, whilst Dogecoin* briefly popped higher after the Tesla (TSLA) Cyber Rodeo event made a reference to the crypto using drones. * Strike payment platform launches Shopify (SHOP) integration, which allows merchants to accept Bitcoin (BTC), according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai will continue a new round of citywide COVID tests on Friday as the number of positive cases has remained high. There’s one critical case, according to Global Times.
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3653 vs exp. 6.3658 (prev. 6.3659)
- RBI Governor Das says India's growth outlook assumes oil at USD 100/bbl, according to Reuters.
- European bourses are firmer across the board returning to post-cash open levels after a choppy morning in relatively thin newsflow
- Explicitly, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%; stateside, futures are relatively in-line with this action though the NQ, +0.5%, outperforms as the yield upside pauses
- DXY set a new YTD best at 99.823 before pulling back to the unchanged mark, providing peers with some modest respite
- Fixed has rebounded after Wednesday’s cycle lows but ECB Minutes and BoE/Fed speakers loom
- WTI and Brent are consolidating near WTD lows after reserve release pressure while spot gold is capped by USD 1930/oz
- Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Minutes, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Bullard & Evans
As of 11:00BST/06:00ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US IJC, ECB Minutes (March), Fed's Bullard & Evans, BoE's Pill * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukraine President Zelensky to meet European Commission President von der Leyen on Friday in Kyiv.
- Russia's Kremlin says US sending weapons to Ukraine is not contributing to the success of peace talks; will respond to latest sanctions.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- UK military officials are said to be mulling plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times
- German intelligence has intercepted radio transmissions from Russian military officers, in which the murder of civilians within Bucha were discussed, via Spiegel; intercept suggests these were not random acts or those of soldiers who got out of hand; "Rather, the material reportedly suggests that the soldiers were talking about the atrocities as if they were talking about their everyday lives." via Spiegel's von Rohr.
- US is reportedly sharing intelligence with foreign banks to boost defences against cyberattacks, according to FT sources.
- Russian Defence Ministry says their missiles destroyed four fuel storage facilities in the Ukrainian cities of Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Chuhuiv, via Reuters.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- UK Foreign Secretary Truss said the G7 is working to crack down on more Russian banks; working on a timetable to eliminate Russian energy imports, via Telegraph.
- Russian Ambassador to the US says US sanctions on Russian banks are a direct blow to the Russian population, according to Interfax.
- US Senate set up Thursday 10:00EDT/15:00BST to vote to sync up with the House and revoke normal trade relations with Russia, according to Fox's Pergram.
- EU's full ban on Russian coal will be pushed back by one-month until mid-August, according to Reuters sources.
OTHER Saudi Arabia has urged Yemen's new presidential council to start negotiations with Houthis, according to state news agency.* * Global Times commentator Hu Xijun, on House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, says "Pelosi is playing with fire, so is the US. There must be serious consequences for her visit."; subsequently, China's Foreign Ministry, on reports that US House Speaker Pelosi is to visit Taiwan, says such a visit would severely impact relations.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are firmer across the board and back in proximity to post-cash open levels after initial strength waned in choppy price action, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7% * US futures have been relatively in-fitting with European peers, though the NQ*, +0.5%, is the modest outperformer as yields take a breather from their recent surge. * China's Shanghai City is to cap the load factor of international flights by foreign airlines at 40% (prev. 75%), according to Reuters sources; effective from April 11th until month-end. * Click here for more detail.
FX Greenback sets marginal new YTD best after hawkish FOMC minutes reveal tight call between 25 bp and 50 bp lift-off plus large cap balance sheet reduction, DXY up to 99.823, thus far. * Albeit, the DXY has waned from best levels and turns flat ahead of the arrival of US participants as yields continue to pare * Euro eyeing option expiries for support ahead of ECB minutes following loss of 1.0900 handle vs Dollar; EUR/USD down below Fib at 1.0895. * Aussie unwinds more RBA inspired upside as trade surplus narrows on zero export balance; AUD/USD around 0.7475 vs circa 0.7661 only yesterday. * Yen* benefits from retreat in yields rather than BoJ rhetoric reaffirming ultra easy policy and merits of a weaker currency, USD/JPY capped below 124.00. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- EUR/USD: 1.0875 (900M), 1.0900-05 (2.4BN), 1.0910-15 (980M), 1.0920-25 (1.6BN), 1.0930-35: (1.7BN), 1.1000-05 (1.7BN), 1.1020-25 (2.1BN), 1.1050 (550M)
- Click here for more detail
FIXED INCOME Debt retracement from Wednesday's new cycle lows as FOMC minutes confirm hawkish guidance, but nothing materially new, Bunds up to 158.87 vs 156.84 yesterday, Gilts 120.91 vs sub-120.00 and 10 year T-note 121-06+ from 120-05+ * EZ periphery bonds also rebounding firmly, with French OATs digesting hefty supply and Spanish Bonos absorbing multi-tranche issuance; 10 year benchmarks above 149.50 and 147.00 at best * JGBs* lag as yield probes BoJ's YCT ceiling * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES Crude benchmarks consolidate near WTD lows after reserve release pressure; specifically, near lows of USD 95.43/bbl and USD 100.13/bbl for WTI and Brent. * Updates elsewhere have been slim, and focused on China's Shanghai City from a demand-side perspective amidst ongoing Ukraine-Russia developments; albeit, nothing fundamentally new in terms of negotiations. * China is to strictly control new production capacity in the oil refining industry, according to the industry ministry * Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume westward, according to Gascade data. * Spot gold/silver are contained and the yellow metal is once again capped by USD 1930/oz and LME Copper* has failed to benefit from the equity pickup. * Click here for more detail.
CENTRAL BANKS BoJ Board Member Noguchi said Japan's economy will likely continue to recover as pandemic and supply constraints ease; most important thing is for the BoJ to patiently sustain current monetary easing, via Reuters. * IMF report noted that the BoJ "expressed concern" over IMF's recommendation to target short yields under YCC. IMF said the BoJ must maintain ultra-easy policy for a prolonged period. IMF cut Japan's 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 3.3%, via Reuters. * Westpac brought forward their call for an RBA hike to June from August. Now they expect rate hikes in June (15bps), July (25bp), August (25bps), October (25bps), and November (25bps) reaching 1.25% by year’s end. Prior call was for hikes in August, October ,and December. * ECB's Lagarde* tweets that she has tested positive for COVID-19; there is no impact on the ECB’s operations.
DATA RECAP
- German Industrial Output MM* (Feb) 0.2% (Prev. 2.7%, Rev. 1.4%)
- EU Retail Sales YY (Feb) 5.0% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 7.8%, Rev. 8.4%); MM (Feb) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
CRYPTO Bitcoin is pressured and towards the low-end of a range that continues to drift from the USD 45k mark. * Meta (FB) is exploring a virtual currency for the metaverse, according to the FT.*
EQUITIES APAC stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street. * ASX 200 was dragged lower by its tech sector following a similar sectoral performance in the West. * Nikkei 225 was hit by losses across its energy, mining and manufacturing names. * KOSPI conformed to the global losses whilst Samsung Electronics (-0.3%) failed to benefit from better-than-expected prelim earnings. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp* were choppy and initially swung between gains and losses before stabilising in the red. * Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Prelim Q1 (KRW) Revenue 77tln (exp. 75.7tln), Operating Profit 14.1tln (exp. 13.3tln), via Reuters.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai city reports 19,600 new asymptomatic COVID cases (vs prev. 16,766), according to Global Times. "Shanghai authorities will work out a white list of suppliers of essential goods including wholesale markets, distribution centers, e-commerce warehouses, central kitchens which will be exempted from lockdown", Global Times tweeted.
- China is to reportedly allow creditors of Evergrande (3333 HK) to sue locally to recoup debt, according to Bloomberg sources.
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 140bln net drain.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3659 vs exp. 6.3697 (prev. 6.3793).
- BoJ purchased JPY 70.1bln in ETFs, via Reuters citing a disclosure.
DATA RECAP
- Australian Trade Balance (A$) (Feb) 7.457B vs. Exp. 12B (Prev. 12.891B)
- Australian Exports (Feb) 0% (Prev. 8.0%)
- Australian Imports (Feb) 12% (Prev. -2.0%)
- Chinese FX Reserves (Monthly) (Mar) 3.188Trl vs. Exp. 3.2Trl (Prev. 3.214Trl)
APAC TRADEClick here for the US Early Morning note.
Russia announced punitive action against Alphabet's Google (GOOG), stating that YouTube has become the main platform for spreading fake information about the Russian military campaign in Ukraine.
China regulators say Tesla (TSLA) has recalled 127,785 imported and China-made ‘Model 3’ vehicles, via Reuters.
Walmart’s (WMT) Flipkart raised IPO valuation target to between USD 60-70bln (prev. 50bln), sources cited by Reuters say; Flipkart aims for US listing in early-to-mid 2023
- APAC stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street.
- DXY pulled back closer towards 99.50 in early APAC hours as US yields eased; commodity-FX lagged.
- The FOMC minutes were hawkish with regards to the monthly caps on Treasuries/MBS and on rates.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 2.4% yesterday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Retail Sales, US IJC, ECB Minutes (March), Fed's Bullard & Evans, BoE's Pill, supply from France & Spain.
FOMC MINUTES Overall, the FOMC minutes were perceived as hawkish with the monthly caps on Treasuries and MBS were towards the top end of a wide range of expectations, albeit not at the most extreme levels; participants generally agreed monthly caps of roughly USD 60bln for Treasury securities and USD 35bln from holdings of MBS. The Fed also confirmed a May commencement for the runoff process to begin, while noting that all options reviewed features a more rapid pace of the prior 2017-2019 runoff, as expected. The language on rates was also hawkish - many would have preferred a 50bps move in March, but the Ukrainian crisis saw a 25bps move instead.* Meanwhile, looking ahead, many participants noted that one or more 50bps increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation pressures remain elevated or intensified.
Click here for the detailed release.
US TRADE US stocks closed with losses across the board, with more pronounced downside in the Nasdaq as mega-cap tech stocks sold off. * SPX -0.98% at 4,480, NDX -2.17% at 14,498, DJIA -0.42% at 34,496, R2K* -1.30% at 2,016.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- SEC is investigating how Amazon (AMZN) disclosed business practices and the Cos. use of third-party sellers’ data is a focus of regulator’s probe, according to WSJ citing sources.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba said at the Thursday meeting with NATO and G7 counterparts he will discuss the need to supply all necessary weapons to Ukraine, via Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Senior US Defense Official said Russian forces near Kyiv have completed their withdrawal from the area but US has indications Russian troops are being refit and resupplied in Belarus, and the killings in Bucha appear to be deliberate and premeditated, according to Reuters.
- Russia's Defence Ministry said a Ukrainian fuel storage base was destroyed by Russian missiles in the Kharkiv region, according to Ria.
- UK military officials are said to be mulling plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times
- US is reportedly sharing intelligence with foreign banks to boost defences against cyberattacks, according to FT sources.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
- US President Biden said the US is going to keep raising economic costs on Russian President Putin, via Reuters.
- UK Foreign Secretary Truss said the G7 is working to crack down on more Russian banks; working on a timetable to eliminate Russian energy imports, via Telegraph.
- Russian Ambassador to the US says US sanctions on Russian banks are a direct blow to the Russian population, according to Interfax.
- US Senate set up Thursday 10:00EDT/15:00BST to vote to sync up with the House and revoke normal trade relations with Russia, according to Fox's Pergram.
OTHER US Treasury Secretary Yellen said she is concerned about Chinese lending around the world, it is often predatory and causes unsustainable debt, according to Reuters. * US Secretary of State Blinken said he is not very optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement with Iran despite efforts, via Al Jazeera. * Saudi Arabia has urged Yemen's new presidential council to start negotiations with Houthis, according to state news agency.*
CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Nagel said savers may soon enjoy higher interest rates, according to a transcript of Ard interview. * BoJ Board Member Noguchi said Japan's economy will likely continue to recover as pandemic and supply constraints ease; most important thing is for the BoJ to patiently sustain current monetary easing, via Reuters. * IMF report noted that the BoJ "expressed concern" over IMF's recommendation to target short yields under YCC. IMF said the BoJ must maintain ultra-easy policy for a prolonged period. IMF cut Japan's 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 3.3%, via Reuters. * Westpac brought forward their call for an RBA hike to June from August.* Now they expect rate hikes in June (15bps), July (25bp), August (25bps), October (25bps), and November (25bps) reaching 1.25% by year’s end. Prior call was for hikes in August, October ,and December.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street. * ASX 200 was dragged lower by its tech sector following a similar sectoral performance in the West. * Nikkei 225 was hit by losses across its energy, mining and manufacturing names. * KOSPI conformed to the global losses whilst Samsung Electronics (-0.3%) failed to benefit from better-than-expected prelim earnings. * Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially swung between gains and losses before stabilising in the red. * Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Prelim Q1 (KRW) Revenue 77tln (exp. 75.7tln), Operating Profit 14.1tln (exp. 13.3tln), via Reuters. * US equity futures were subdued throughout APAC hours. * European equity futures* are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 2.4% yesterday.
FX DXY pulled back closer towards 99.50 in early APAC hours as US yields eased. * EUR/USD reclaimed a 1.09 handle ahead of the ECB minutes. * GBP/USD erred higher as the Buck lost some modest ground. * Commodity-related currencies underperformed as APAC traders reacted to the slide in commodity prices. * JPY* saw mild gains as the soured mood underpinned the haven.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures drifted higher whilst the corresponding cash yield lost further ground under 2.60%. * Bund futures consolidated overnight as traders look ahead to ECB minutes and EZ supply. * 10yr JGB yields* were stable overnight but remained closed to the BoJ's 0.25% line in the sand.
COMMODITIES Crude consolidated overnight following yesterday's substantial slide. * IEA's Birol confirmed the US is to contribute 60mln barrels to the 120mln global crude release, according to Reuters. * China is to strictly control new production capacity in the oil refining industry, according to the industry ministry * Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume westward, according to Gascade data. * Spot gold remained caged to a tight range around USD 1,925/oz. * 3M LME copper* was dampened by the overall market sentiment.
CRYPTO Bitcoin took a breather from yesterday's slide as the Bitcoin 2022 Conference got underway. * Meta (FB) is exploring a virtual currency for the metaverse, according to the FT.*
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai city reports 19,600 new asymptomatic COVID cases (vs prev. 16,766), according to Global Times. "Shanghai authorities will work out a white list of suppliers of essential goods including wholesale markets, distribution centers, e-commerce warehouses, central kitchens which will be exempted from lockdown", Global Times tweeted.
- China is to reportedly allow creditors of Evergrande (3333 HK) to sue locally to recoup debt, according to Bloomberg sources.
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 140bln net drain.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3659 vs exp. 6.3697 (prev. 6.3793).
DATA RECAP
- Australian Trade Balance (A$) (Feb) 7.457B vs. Exp. 12B (Prev. 12.891B)
- Australian Exports (Feb) 0% (Prev. 8.0%)
- Australian Imports (Feb) 12% (Prev. -2.0%)
- Equity bourses/futures have come under further pressure after a tepid APAC handover, as the NQ underperforms amid renewed yield advances pre-FOMC Minutes
- However, while ES has lost the 4500 mark it is yet to test/breach the 200-DMA at 4484
- Geopolitical updates have been thin and primarily focused around Russian sanctions
- Albeit, such updates have been sufficient to provide WTI and Brent with an underlying bid
- DXY has taken some respite after recent gains while yields continue to climb and Bunds approach cycle lows
- Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes & ECB’s Lane
As of 11:15BST/06:15ET
LOOKING AHEAD* FOMC Minutes, ECB's Lane, Fed's Harker * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukraine Deputy PM says 11 humanitarian corridors agreed for Wednesday, but people trying to leave Mariupol must use own vehicles.
- Russian Kremlin says that work is continuing when questioned on when the next round of peace discussions with Ukraine would take place; progress not as fact as they would like.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- The US will send an additional USD 100mln in Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, according to NBC sources. The amount was confirmed by Secretary of State Blinken.
- Military sources cited by The Times suggested the UK plans to develop its own hypersonic missile, the plan would be accelerated by the AUKUS pact.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- White House said sanctions expected to be announced on Wednesday related to Russia; aim is to make Russia choose between default and drain remaining Dollar reserves, according to Reuters.
- Russia's Sberbank is among banks being considered for tightened sanctions by US President Biden's administration, according to Reuters.
- Russia Deputy Chair of Security Council Medvedev says Moscow will fight Western attempts to expropriate Russian property overseas with lawsuits; will wage legal war in US, Europe, and international courts.
- Head of Ukraine gas transit operator says three main gas pipelines have suffered damage during the war, and two gas distribution stations have been destroyed, via Reuters.
- German Finance Minister Lindner says an immediate withdrawal from Russian oil and gas is not possible, via Reuters.
- Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto says they are preparing to pay for Russian gas using RUB.
OTHER* China's UN Envoy, in response to US/UK/Aus hypersonic weapons deal, warned against "things which may lead other parts of world into crisis" like Ukraine, via Reuters. * EU's Foreign Affairs Chief Borrell said last week's EU-China summit was a "dialogue of the deaf", according to SCMP.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses deteriorated further from a tepid cash open, in-fitting with the Wall St./APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.6% * Such downside was exacerbated by weak Construction PMIs and as yields continue to make further advances ahead of ECB's Lane & FOMC Minutes * As such, the NQ -1.0% is the morning's laggard, though price action thus far has seen the ES* give-up 4500 ahead of the 200-DMA at 4484. * Click here for more detail.
FX Dollar fades fast following rapid rise to fresh 2022 high post-hawkish Fed Brainard and pre-FOMC minutes - DXY reaches 99.759 before retreat to sub 99.500. * Swedish Krona outperforms after latest comments from Riksbank member Floden upping the ante for a near term repo rise, EUR/SEK capped below 10.3000. * Franc lags as yield and policy divergence weigh and EUR/CHF cross rebounds in a fashion that suggests official intervention, USD/CHF tests 0.9350 and EUR/CHF close to 1.0200 vs sub-1.0150 at one stage. * Euro and Pound take advantage of Buck pull back and some chart support to recoup losses, EUR/USD and Cable back on 1.0900 and 1.3100 handles after dip through 1.0895 Fib and 1.3050. * Yen* reverses more repatriation gains as BoJ maintains YCC, USD/JPY hovering beneath 124.05 peak. * Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME US Treasuries extend post-Brainard collapse with little let-up ahead of FOMC minutes as the 10 year T-note sits just off a 120-07+ low and yield tops 2.6%. * EU bonds slide in catch-up trade with Bunds closing in on cycle lows below 157.00 and Gilts retesting bids into 120.00. * EZ periphery debt continues to underperform amidst syndications and French Presidential election jitters, with Italian BTPs near 135.00 and OATs* close to 148.50. * Italy sold EUR 2.1bln in three BTP bonds that were sold to bond specialists. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are firmer, shrugging off the tepid tone and benefitting from geopolitical premia. amid ongoing sanction announcements/discussions * However, the benchmarks are once again in relatively thin ranges of circa. USD 3.00/bbl at present. * US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.08mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing +1.791mln, Gasoline -0.543mln (exp. +0.1mln), Distillate +0.593mln (exp. -0.8mln). * Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume eastward, according to Gascade data, according to Reuters; however, subsequently reported that such flows have stopped. * Spot gold/silver* are modestly firmer, benefitting from the general risk tone and as the USD takes a breather from recent advances. * Click here for more detail.
CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Wunsch said the inflation target is essentially met and expects the deposit rate to be raised to zero by year end. He said the ECB's rate could rise to 1.5-2% in the longer term, but caveat that even within the ECB there has been no discussion about raising interest rates, according to Reuters. * ECB's Panetta says they would not hesitate to tighten policy if supply shocks fed into domestic inflation, not seeking any de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Asking the ECB to bring down high inflation in the near-term would be extremely costly. * RBA's Deputy Governor Bullock* notes Australian labour market is tight, was seeing some response in wages, with unemployment at 4.0%. Expects some revision upward in inflation forecasts; are now seeing more underlying inflation pressures. * Riksbank's Floden says inflation will be much higher in the coming year than predicted in February. We must raise the policy rate much earlier than previously planned. Evident we must reassess and substantial adj. monetary policy plans.
DATA RECAP
- German Industrial Orders MM (Feb) -2.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%, Rev. 2.3%)
- EU S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 52.8 (Prev. 56.3); German S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 50.9 (Prev. 54.9)
- French S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 48.4 (Prev. 50); Italian S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 62.9 (Prev. 68.5)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
CRYPTO Crypto markets experienced sudden selling pressure overnight with Bitcoin* losing USD 45k, a level it has acquired a foothold on during the European session.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks traded lower across the board following the losses on Wall Street; Mainland China returned from its long-weekend. * ASX 200 conformed to the downbeat tone which isn’t helped by the RBA’s hawkish hold yesterday * Nikkei 225 saw most of its construction and machinery-related names with losses. * KOSPI was pressured by its large tech exposure. * Hang Seng was also weighed on by its tech exposure as yields continued to rise overnight. * Shanghai Comp* returned for the first time this week following its domestic holiday and saw less pronounced losses, with the Real Estate sector feeling relief from reports that over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support the market.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai City says it will remain in lockdown until city-wide mass COVID testing (due to start Apr 6) is complete; results will be used to assess whether an extension to the lockdown is needed.
- China's Shanghai city reports 16,766 new asymptomatic COVID cases for April 4th (vs 13,086 for April 4th).
- Over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support market, according to Global Times.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3799 vs exp. 6.3793 (prev. 6.3509 on Friday).
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 440bln net drain
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Mar) 42 (Exp. 49.7, Prev. 50.2); Composite 43.9 (Prev. 50.1).
Click here for the US Early Morning note.
US Democratic Senator Sinema has told donors a path to revival for Build Back Better is unlikely, according to Axios.
JetBlue (JBLU) reportedly bids USD 3.6bln or USD 33/shr to acquire Spirit Airlines (SAVE), according to NYT.
- APAC stocks traded lower across the board following the losses on Wall Street; S&P 500 -1.2%, Nasdaq -2.2%.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY remains firm above 99.50 (fresh YTD highs), JPY lags with USD/JPY above 124 at one stage, EUR/USD hovers around 1.09.
- ECB's Wunsch said the ECB's inflation target is essentially met and expects the deposit rate to be raised to zero by year end.
- Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, ECB's Lane, Schnabel, Panetta, de Guindos, Fed's Harker.
US TRADE US stocks trundled lower throughout the US session with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit the hardest amid the surge in yields. * SPX -1.19% at 4,528, NDX -2.24% at 14,820, DJIA -0.80% at 34,641, R2K* -2.22% at 2,045.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- EU Commission wants large online platforms to pay an annual supervisory fee of up to 0.1% of their global net income under new tech rules, according to an EU document, according to Reuters.
- JetBlue (JBLU) reportedly bids USD 3.6bln or USD 33/shr to acquire Spirit Airlines (SAVE), according to NYT.
- US Democratic Senator Sinema has told donors a path to revival for Build Back Better is unlikely, according to Axios.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said the West is trying to derail talks between Russia and Ukraine by fuelling hysteria over Bucha, according to Ria. He added that agreements with Ukraine should completely rule out NATO's expansion to the east, according to Interfax.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- The US will send an additional USD 100mln in Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, according to NBC sources. The amount was confirmed by Secretary of State Blinken.
- Military sources cited by The Times suggested the UK plans to develop its own hypersonic missile, the plan would be accelerated by the AUKUS pact.
- Russian Defence Ministry said its forces will "liberate" Mariupol from Ukrainian nationalists, according to Ria.
- China's Ambassador to the UN said the reports and images of civilian deaths in Bucha are very disturbing, relevant circumstances and specific causes of the events must be verified and established, according to Reuters.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
- White House said sanctions expected to be announced on Wednesday related to Russia; aim is to make Russia choose between default and drain remaining Dollar reserves, according to Reuters.
- Russia's Sberbank is among banks being considered for tightened sanctions by US President Biden's administration, according to Reuters.
OTHER* China's UN Envoy, in response to US/UK/Aus hypersonic weapons deal, warned against "things which may lead other parts of world into crisis" like Ukraine, via Reuters. * EU's Foreign Affairs Chief Borrell said last week's EU-China summit was a "dialogue of the deaf", according to SCMP.
CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said the labour market is extremely tight and Fed is on a path to raise interest rates. She does not expect a big slowdown in US economy due to high oil prices. She said the Fed can begin balance sheet reduction as early as May meeting and will use balance sheet reductions as well as rate hikes to reduce policy accommodation. "We'll be able to get inflation moving down by end of year, but no recession", according to Reuters. * ECB's Lane said maybe by mid-year we will see the peak on inflation, but it depends on the war. The momentum of inflation will slow down, so thinks that in the second half of the year the inflation rate will come down. "We do think it will be a lot lower next year and the year after." Lane expects to see a slowdown in the economy, but economy will still grow this year, via ECB. * ECB's Wunsch* said the inflation target is essentially met and expects the deposit rate to be raised to zero by year end. He said the ECB's rate could rise to 1.5-2% in the longer term, but caveat that even within the ECB there has been no discussion about raising interest rates, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks traded lower across the board following the losses on Wall Street; Mainland China returned from its long-weekend. * ASX 200 conformed to the downbeat tone which isn’t helped by the RBA’s hawkish hold yesterday * Nikkei 225 saw most of its construction and machinery-related names with losses. * KOSPI was pressured by its large tech exposure. * Hang Seng was also weighed on by its tech exposure as yields continued to rise overnight. * Shanghai Comp returned for the first time this week following its domestic holiday and saw less pronounced losses, with the Real Estate sector feeling relief from reports that over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support the market. * US equity futures held a downside bias and the NQ narrowly underperformed. * European equity futures* are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% yesterday.
FX DXY remained over 99.50 as yields continued rising, with the index hitting an overnight high of 99.640. * EUR/USD briefly dipped under 1.0900 ahead of the YTD low of 1.0804. * GBP/USD traded relatively flat after finding support around 1.3050 * Antipodeans were lacklustre throughout the session as upside remained capped by the soured APAC mood. * JPY* continued to weaken due to yield differentials with the US; USD/JPY briefly topped 124.00, whilst some desks noted of Japanese exporter offers around the psychological level.
FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures edged lower in a continuation of the US action, whilst the corresponding cash yield rose to an APAC high of exactly 2.62% * APAC yields rose in tandem, with the 10yr JGB yield hitting a high of 0.23% vs the BoJ’s 0.25% cap. * Bund futures* conformed to the selling across the debt complex.
COMMODITIES Crude clambered off worst levels despite the surprised build in the weekly Private Inventories. * US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.08mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing +1.791mln, Gasoline -0.543mln (exp. +0.1mln), Distillate +0.593mln (exp. -0.8mln). * Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume eastward, according to Gascade data, according to Reuters. * Spot gold remained caged in a tight range overnight. * LME 3M copper* fell amid the soured risk tone and prices receded further below USD 10.5k/t.
CRYPTO Crypto markets experienced sudden selling and thereafter a recovery in which Bitcoin briefly fell under USD 45k. * US Treasury Secretary Yellen to deliver speech on digital assets on Thursday, according to Reuters*.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai City says it will remain in lockdown until city-wide mass COVID testing (due to start Apr 6) is complete; results will be used to assess whether an extension to the lockdown is needed.
- China's Shanghai city reports 16,766 new asymptomatic COVID cases for April 4th (vs 13,086 for April 4th).
- Over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support market, according to Global Times.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3799 vs exp. 6.3793 (prev. 6.3509 on Friday).
- PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 440bln net drain
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Mar) 42 (Exp. 49.7, Prev. 50.2); Composite 43.9 (Prev. 50.1).
- European bourses began the session lackluster before seeing a marginal pick up amid broader risk-on moves as Ukraine's Zelensky spoke.
- However, this upside was fleeting with bourses and US futures now softer, ES -0.30%, amid reports of EU sanctions touching on energy (via coal)
- DXY remains bid but capped just above 99.00 while AUD outperforms amid RBA implying meetings are live
- Bunds have retreated markedly from initial best levels and after Monday’s upside, OATs underperform as polls imply a tighter Macron-Le Pen race
- WTI and Brent reside towards the top-end of another relatively modest range at this point in the session, awaiting further Ukraine-Russia updates.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Composite/Services Final PMIs, US ISM Services PMI, Fed's Williams, Brainard, Kashkari & George.
As of 11:10BST/06:10ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US Composite/Services Final PMIs, US ISM Services PMI, Fed's Williams, Brainard, Kashkari & George. * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he will address the UN Security Council on Tuesday.
- Ukraine President Zelensky has endorsed a delegation to partake in negotiations with Russia re. coordinating/preparing a draft treaty on Ukraine security guarantees, via Ifx.
- Ukraine President says the possibility of holding discussions with Russia is 'very challenging', but he has no other option, via Reuters citing Ukrainian TV.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- The US successfully tested a hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet for two weeks to avoid further tensions with Russia ahead of President Biden's trip to Europe, according to CNN sources.
- Russia's deputy envoy to UN Polyanskiy said AUKUS Provokes new round of arms race, Russia urges US to abandon plans to deploy ground-based missiles in APR, "rejects" possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, via Sputnik.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- US Treasury will not allow any Dollar-debt payments to be made from Russian government accounts at US financial institutions, according to a spokesperson.
- EU's Dombrovskis said oil and coal sanctions are also an option for new EU measures against Russia, via Reuters.
- Big EU sanctions package against Russia is coming; first tranche will touch on energy (EU coal ban from Russia), if approved, via WSJ's Norman. New bans on export of machinery worth EUR 10bln to Russia, new oligarch hits and family members of Russians, cap on potash imports and finally the transport road freight and vessel restrictions. Will need backing of EU27, which WSJ reporter says may not be easy.
OTHER North Korea said that South Korea is not their principal enemy, but if South Korea chooses confrontation, then nuclear forces will carry out their mission, via KCNA.*
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses began the session lacklustre before seeing a marginal pick up amid broader risk-on moves as Ukraine's Zelensky spoke. * However, this upside was fleeting and bourses are now softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%; note, the pullback began before, but has been exacerbated by, the latest sanctions updates. * Sectors, has Energy Names outperforming amid benchmark action while Basic Resources lag awaiting the touted next set of EU sanctions. * Stateside*, US futures have moved directionally in tandem with EZ peers but magnitudes were more contained initially, but have slipped further amid the latest sanctions reports. * Click here for more detail.
FX Aussie rules as RBA removes patience from policy guidance to imply upcoming meetings are live for rate hikes; AUD/USD approaches 0.7650 after round number and Fib resistance (circa 0.7609) breaks. * Kiwi tags along after BNZ raised its May call for the RBNZ to a 50 bp tightening move from 25 bp previously, NZD/USD probes 0.7000 as AUD/NZD runs into headwinds above 1.0900. * Dollar underpinned by bear-steepening US Treasury backdrop, but DXY unable to extend much beyond 99.000. * Swedish Crown bid as another Riksbank member registers concern over inflation and contends that it’s time to re-evaluate policy at the next meeting, EUR/SEK edges close to 10.3000. * Loonie and Nokkie firm as WTI and Brent crude continue to rebound amidst ongoing geopolitical supply risk; USD/CAD near 1.2450 and EUR/NOK around 9.5300 at one stage * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX impact on Japan's economy and must look out for any sharp FX moves.* * Japanese Vice Finance Minister declined to comment on FX intervention, closely watching FX with a sense of urgency. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME Bonds back in reverse gear after Monday's bounce, with Bunds around 100 ticks off their 159.42 overnight Eurex peak, Gilts 71 ticks below par circa 121.17 and the 10 year T-note closer to 121-22+ than 122-10. * French OATs* underperforming and testing 150.00 support in futures as polls predict a tight run-off between Macron and Le Pen for the Presidency. * 2026 UK DMO issuance draws decent demand, but tail a tad longer and yield much higher. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent reside towards the top-end of another relatively modest range at this point in the session, as fundamentals haven't significantly changed and we await Ukraine-Russia updates. * Thus far, talks are ongoing, Ukraine acknowledges they are very difficult but there is no alternative and Russia continues to pushback on Bucha allegations. * JP Morgan (JPM) is reportedly mulling its commodity exposure following the nickel episode, according to Bloomberg sources. * Russia prevented the movement of a ship loaded with Ukrainian wheat after it was bought by Egypt, according to the Embassy of Ukraine in Cairo cited by Al Jazeera. * Russian oil and gas condensate output is down 4% in early April, according to Interfax. * Some Japanese aluminium buyers agreed a Q2 premium of USD 172/T, -2.8% QQ, according to Reuters sources. * Spot gold/silver* eased from best amid the initial risk-on action * Click here for more detail.
CENTRAL BANKS The RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target at 0.10% as expected. The statement surprisingly dropped reference to the word "patient". The Board noted inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected. The statement made no explicit mention of rate increases. * BoJ Governor Kuroda said recent forex moves are somewhat rapid. He added if the rise in long-term rates is rapid, BoJ will offer to buy unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs and it may not necessarily be a "last resort", via Reuters. * A senior BoJ official said Japanese consumer inflation will likely hover around 2% for some time from April onward, via Reuters. * A BoK official said upside risks to inflation path has risen since the Feb forecast; will continue to monitor commodities, via Reuters. * BNZ now expects the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps in May (prev. 25bps) "but, hesitantly, keep April at 25". * ECB's Rehn says ECB decided to proceed with gradual monpol normalisation in March, but recent inflation rates may give rise to the need for measures to curb inflation more quickly.* * Riksbank's Floden says inflation will be significantly higher than in their latest forecast, will need to re-evaluate monetary policy at the next meeting; risks for persistently high inflation have increased. The domestic economy is in good shape, labour market is strong.
DATA RECAP
- EU S&P Global Composite Final PMI (Mar) 54.9 vs. Exp. 54.5 (Prev. 54.5); Services Final PMI (Mar) 55.6 vs. Exp. 54.8 (Prev. 54.8)
- UK Composite PMI Final (Mar) 60.9 vs. Exp. 59.7 (Prev. 59.7); Services PMI Final (Mar) 62.6 vs. Exp. 61.0 (Prev. 61.0)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, after purchasing a large stake in Twitter (TWTR), asks via a Twitter Poll whether users would like an "edit" button [for Twitter posts].
- US President Biden is to propose adjustments to the Affordable Care Act to extend subsidies for families, according to WSJ; set to be announced today.
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* is slightly firmer, residing near the top end of a slim USD 46,188-46,889 range.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks traded mixed as the region also observed mass closures. * Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were all closed today due to domestic holidays. * ASX 200 traded in the green in the run-up to the RBA release but trimmed those gains following the RBA's hawkish hold. * Nikkei 225 reversed the gains seen at the open amid unfavourable currency dynamics after verbal jawboning from Japanese officials. * KOSPI* traded lacklustre as South Korean March CPI rose at its fastest pace since 2011.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai city reported 13,086 new asymptomatic COVID cases for April 4th (vs 8,581 for April 3rd).
- Australia is to speed up the Australian Defence Force's missile strike capabilities.
DATA RECAP
- South Korea CPI Growth Y/Y (Mar) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%); M/M (Mar) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)
- APAC stocks traded mixed as the region observed mass closures, with Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan all away.
- US equity futures traded flat with a slightly softer bias but around yesterday’s best levels.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly flat/softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday.
- DXY hovers around the 99.00 mark, AUD outperforms post-RBA, EUR/USD remains sub-1.10 and JPY firmer post-jawboning.
- RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target at 0.10% as expected; statement dropped reference to the word "patient".
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Composite/Services Final PMIs, US ISM Services PMI, Fed's Williams, Kashkari, and supply from the UK.
US TRADE US stocks finished higher across the board whilst Twitter shares soared 27% after Tesla (+5.6%) CEO Musk reported a 9.2% passive stake in the social media giant. * SPX +0.84% at 4,584, NDX +2.01% at 15,159, DJIA +0.30% at 34,922, R2K* +0.60% at 2,096.
Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, after purchasing a large stake in Twitter (TWTR), asks via a Twitter Poll whether users would like an "edit" button [for Twitter posts].
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he will address the UN Security Council on Tuesday.
- City council of Ukraine's Mariupol said Russia has appointed its own mayor of Mariupol, according to Reuters.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- The US successfully tested a hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet for two weeks to avoid further tensions with Russia ahead of President Biden's trip to Europe, according to CNN sources.
- Russia's deputy envoy to UN Polyanskiy said AUKUS Provokes new round of arms race, Russia urges US to abandon plans to deploy ground-based missiles in APR, "rejects" possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, via Sputnik.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
- Eurogroup President Donohoe said Euro countries are ready to step up sanctions against Russia, but have not discussed details yet, according to Reuters.
- White House Adviser Sullivan said US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia and concluded Russia has committed war crimes and Bucha provides more evidence to support that. He said the conflict may not be just a few more weeks but could be months, and they are talking with European officials on sanctions options including for Russian energy.
- US Treasury will not allow any Dollar-debt payments to be made from Russian government accounts at US financial institutions, according to a spokesperson.
OTHER North Korea said that South Korea is not their principal enemy, but if South Korea chooses confrontation, then nuclear forces will carry out their mission, via KCNA.*
CENTRAL BANKS The RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target at 0.10% as expected. The statement surprisingly dropped reference to the word "patient". The Board noted inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected. The statement made no explicit mention of rate increases. * ECB's Knot said the ECB should act in the face of high inflation and gradual but timely normalisation required. He added that high inflation not completely due to supply shock and demand has recovered far faster than expected, via Reuters. * BoJ Governor Kuroda said recent forex moves are somewhat rapid. He added if the rise in long-term rates is rapid, BoJ will offer to buy unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs and it may not necessarily be a "last resort", via Reuters. * A senior BoJ official said Japanese consumer inflation will likely hover around 2% for some time from April onward, via Reuters. * A BoK official* said upside risks to inflation path has risen since the Feb forecast; will continue to monitor commodities, via Reuters. * BNZ now expects the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps in May (prev. 25bps) "but, hesitantly, keep April at 25".
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks traded mixed as the region also observed mass closures. * Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were all closed today due to domestic holidays. * ASX 200 traded in the green in the run-up to the RBA release but trimmed those gains following the RBA's hawkish hold. * Nikkei 225 reversed the gains seen at the open amid unfavourable currency dynamics after verbal jawboning from Japanese officials. * KOSPI traded lacklustre as South Korean March CPI rose at its fastest pace since 2011. * US equity futures traded flat with a slightly softer bias but around yesterday’s best levels; ES -0.1% * European equity futures* are indicative of a slightly flat/softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.8% yesterday.
FX FX markets were relatively quiet for most of the session aside from the early Yen action and the post-RBA Aussie. * DXY eventually reclaimed 99.00 and US yields caught a bid across the curve in late APAC trade. * EUR/USD remained sub-1.1000 and GBP/USD maintained its 1.3100-status, with the pairs uneventful for most of the night. * AUD soared after the RBA's hawkish hold in which it dropped the reference to patience from its statement. * JPY-pairs were hit following verbal jawboning from the Japanese Finance Minister and BoJ Governor. * Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX impact on Japan's economy and must look out for any sharp FX moves.* * Japanese Vice Finance Minister declined to comment on FX intervention, closely watching FX with a sense of urgency.
FIXED INCOME 10yr JGB yields fell after the BoJ Governor said the central bank will offer to buy an unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs and may not necessarily be a "last resort". * 10yr UST futures drifted lower overnight with the corresponding cash yield on either side of 2.40%. * Bund futures* mimicked UST price action and remained within yesterday's post-Europe range.
COMMODITIES Crude futures were firmer in what was seemingly APAC traders picking up the baton from Wall Street trade. * JP Morgan (JPM) is reportedly mulling its commodity exposure following the nickel episode, according to Bloomberg sources. * Italy's Ecology Transition Minister expects 10bcm of extra gas from deals Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Libya this year, and to reach more than 20bcm/yr in early 2024. Italy expects to close first deals for extra gas next week, according to Reuters. * Iran has announced the return of oil production to pre-sanction levels, according to Sky News Arabia. * Spot gold edged lower as the Buck slowly recovered but remained within recent ranges. * Copper* traded flat and with volumes low due to China's day off. * Russia prevented the movement of a ship loaded with Ukrainian wheat after it was bought by Egypt, according to the Embassy of Ukraine in Cairo cited by Al Jazeera.
CRYPTO* Crypto markets were sideways overnight with BTC above USD 45k and Ethereum north of USD 3,500. * US SEC Chair Gensler has asked staff to consider expanding existing investor protections to crypto trading, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- China's Shanghai city reported 13,086 new asymptomatic COVID cases for April 4th (vs 8,581 for April 3rd).
- Australia is to speed up the Australian Defence Force's missile strike capabilities
DATA RECAP
- South Korea CPI Growth Y/Y (Mar) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%)
- South Korea CPI Growth M/M (Mar) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)
- European bourses are mixed with US futures similarly contained, ES +0.1, amid limited newsflow and with a thin docket ahead.
- Russian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged, a draft peace agreement is not ready and talks will resume on Monday
- DXY continues to grind higher as EUR lags amid yield pressure as EGBs bounce, though GBP/Gilts await BoE speak via dovish-dissenter Cunliffe
- WTI and Brent are choppy but contained awaiting Ukraine-Russia progress; Kremlin has no information on the continuation of talks
- Fed’s Williams says balance sheet reduction could begin as soon as May.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders & BoE’s Cunliffe
As of 10:45BST/05:45ET
LOOKING AHEAD* US Factory Orders & BoE’s Cunliffe * Click here for the Week Ahead preview.
GEOPOLITICSRUSSIA-UKRAINENEGOTIATIONS/TALKS
- Russian Chief Negotiator said Russia's position on Crimea and Donbas remains unchanged, a draft peace agreement is not ready and talks will resume on Monday, via Reuters.
- Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Kyiv is attempting to disrupt peace talks.
- SGH Macro Advisors, in a note dated April 1st, suggested it is their understand that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov conveyed to his Chinese counterpart that “there is still a long way to be walked” to sign a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine under conditions that are “mutually acceptable”, although a great progress has been made. Lavrov added that Russia does not rule out settlement in Roubles for other commodities if hostility continues from the West. Commodities such as oil, wheat, fertilizer, lumber, and uranium could be affected.
- Russia has requested a US Security Council Meeting to discuss "provocation of Ukrainian radicals", according to Reuters citing Ria.
- Russia's Kremlin repeated that the special military operation in Ukraine will achieve all of its aims, via Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken will travel to Belgium on April 5-7th for a NATO meeting, according to the State Department.
- Russian Kremlin says it has no information re. the continuation of Russia-Ukraine talks, declines to comment on how Bucha allegations will impact discussions; wants and demands the Bucha issue is discussed at an international level, categorically rejects any accusations.
DEFENCE/MILITARY
- Russia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to focus on trying to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May, according to several US officials cited by CNN.
- Poland’s Ruling Party leader said Poland would be open to deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland, according to the Jerusalem Post.
- There have been reports via Western media of continued civilian killings by Russia in several cities, particularly in Bucha.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said what we see in Ukraine is not a real withdrawal by Russian troops, via Reuters.
- Ukraine's 368.5k BPD Kremenchuk oil refinery was completely destroyed during a Russian attack, according to the regional governor.
- Explosions were heard in Ukraine's city of Odessa, according to a Reuters witness and in the city of Kherson, according to a local media.
- Ukrainian authorities of Luhansk says that Russian forces are preparing to launch an attack on the region after mobilising fighters and vehicles.
ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES
- Russian government spokesperson Peskov said Russia could demand RUB payments for other goods. He added that payment for gas supplies in Russian Roubles will be made from the end of the second half of April, or even early May, according to Reuters.
- EU ambassadors are expected to discuss fresh Russian sanctions on Wednesday, according to FT sources.
- UK PM Johnson said UK is stepping up military support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, according to Reuters.
- German Chancellor Scholz said the West will agree on further Russian sanctions in the coming days, according to Reuters.
- EU must discuss import ban on Russian gas deliveries, according to the German Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.
- US Department of Commerce on Friday added 120 Russian and Belarusian entities, largely comprised of companies linked to the military, via Reuters.
- Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania stopped imports of Russian gas from April 1st, according to the FT.
- Physical gas flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline at Mallnow, Germany have dropped to zero, via Reuters citing operator data. Elsewhere, Gazprom does not intend to hold spot gas sales sessions at its electronic sales platform this week.
- German Economy Minister Habeck says they are working hard to limit dependence on Russian oil, also with reference to the Rosneft refinery in Schwedt.
OTHER A Chinese diplomat, following talks with EU, said China cannot change the EU and the EU cannot change China. China said it is not deliberately circumventing Russian sanctions, via Reuters. * North Korea continues to develop chemical and biological weapons which together with its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities pose a serious threat to South Korea and other US allies, according to Yonhap citing US officials on Friday. * A two-month truce has been announced by the warring sides in Yemen, according to The Guardian.* * Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khatibzadeh says they are ready to continue discussions with Saudi Arabia, calling on them to show willingness to resolve the outstanding issues, via Reuters.
EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIES European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, failing to derive firm direction after initial opening gains faded in limited newsflow. * Sectors, are mixed as well with Roche and Bayer lifting Health Care and the former aiding the SMI while Banking names lag modestly. * Stateside, US futures* are similarly indifferent with a thin docket ahead. * Spanish PM Sanchez says they are to spend EUR 11bn on the semi-conductor and micro-chip industry, via Reuters. * Click here for more detail.
FX Greenback grinds higher amidst more Fed officials flagging half point hikes post-US jobs data and pre- factory orders, DXY forms 98.500+ base. * Aussie outperforms ahead of AIG construction index, final PMIs and RBA policy meeting that might see rate guidance turn more plausible than patient; AUD/USD pivots 0.7500 and AUD/NZD solid on the 1.0800 handle. * Euro underperforms as EGB yields retreat, Russia/Ukraine angst persists and option expiry interest exerts downside pressure, EUR/USD drifts down from 1.1050+ towards 1.1000 and 1bln rolling off between the round number and 1.1010. * Forint underpinned following resounding win by Hungarian PM Orban, but Lira* undermined by further increases in Turkish CPI and PPI. * S&P said Turkey long-term LC rating lowered to 'B+' from 'BB-'; FC rating affirmed at 'B+'; outlook remains negative. * Click here for more detail.
Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:
- EUR/USD: 1.0975 (485M), 1.1000-10 (1.1BN), 1.1100 (765M)
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME Bunds bounce firmly on a mix of safe-haven demand, short covering and stop-driven price action as tech levels are breached through 159.00 vs 158.12 at the Eurex low, including a Fib at 159.03 and last Thursday's 159.05 session best. * Gilts tag along awaiting comments from dovish BoE dissenter Cunliffe with the 10 year bond hovering towards the top of a 122.01-121.31 range vs its 121.19 prior Liffe close. * US Treasuries* remain sub-par and the curve re-steepens amidst more Fed backing for 50 bp hikes post-NFP and pre-US factory orders,10 year T-note soft between 121-27/122-08+ parameters. * Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES WTI and Brent are choppy within a relatively contained USD 2.0/bbl range, as we await updates on the Russia-Ukraine talks set to resume on Monday. * Currently, the benchmarks are holding within USD 98.00-100.70/bbl and USD 102.90-105.80/bbl parameters respectively. * Reports on Saturday suggested Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline. It was then reported Gazprom has booked to pump gas through the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline on Sunday night to Monday, according to Interfax. * Goldman Sachs upgrades its 2023 oil price forecast to USD 115/bbl (prev. 110/bbl); still forecast end-year oil at USD 125/bbl. * "A UN-brokered two-month ceasefire in Yemen was broadly holding on its first full day with oil shipments reaching the port of Hodeida", according to The Guardian. * The Russian Energy Ministry has delayed the publication of March oil output numbers amid technical issues, according to reports. * Azerbaijan plans to supply 9.5bcm of gas to Italy, according to Interfax. * Indian State has cancelled bids by Adani Enterprises to supply imported coal as prices that were quoted were too high, according to a government official cited by Reuters. * Spot gold/silver* are firmer, deriving modest impetus from the deterioration in sentiment seen around the European cash open, metals towards top-end of respective ranges. * Click here for more detail.
CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Williams (voter) expects a combination of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction to help ease inflation back to 4% this year and closer to 2% in 2024. Williams said balance sheet reduction could begin as soon as May. He added that there are no plans to use the balance sheet for Yield Curve Control, via Reuters. Williams also noted that the USD has proven itself as a safe haven. Williams also suggested that we have not yet seen global risk sentiment much impacted by the Ukraine war. * Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said the case for 50bps rate hike in May has grown, according to the FT. She added she is more confident that adjusting early would be appropriate. * ECB's Schnabel* said the ECB plans to raise interest rates some time after winding down its bond purchase programme Q3 2022, via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Feb) 11.5B vs. Exp. 9.6B (Prev. 9.4B, Rev. 8.8B)
- EU Sentix Index (Apr) -18.0 vs. Exp. -9.2 (Prev. -7.0)
- Turkish CPI MM (Mar) 5.46% vs. Exp. 5.77% (Prev. 4.81%); YY (Mar) 61.14% vs. Exp. 61.6% (Prev. 54.44%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Hungarian opposition leader has accepted defeat in elections, with PM Orban declaring victory.
- UK government is said to be mulling permanent replacements to programmes that helped banks lend to firms during the pandemic; the scheme is expected to focus on small and medium-sized firms. Sources added focus is on growth of UK business, via FT.
- German BDB, banking lobby, calls on the ECB to end net asset purchases soon and to send an initial signal on interest rates. Sees German growth of 2% in 2022, are considerable risks.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Tesla (TSLA): Q1 deliveries 310.4k (prev. 308.6k Q/Q; exp. 309-315k).
- JP Morgan (JPM CEO) Dimon says the bank could lose around USD 1bln over time from its exposure to Russia. Stock buybacks will be lower over the next year or so due to mandates capital increases and acquisitions. Acquisitions will increase incremental investment expenses by USD 700mln in 2022.
CRYPTO Bitcoin* is little changed but errs towards the lower-end of the sessions parameters at USD 45760 vs USD 47439, at best.
APAC TRADEEQUITIES APAC stocks initially traded mixed but later turned mostly higher. * ASX 200 saw early outperformance as mining names surged, with rising EV sales also boosting some Russia-related metals. * Nikkei 225 traded flat with a downside bias throughout the session. * Hang Seng outperformed and was bolstered at the open by Chinese dual-listed stocks, with the tech sector the main beneficiary of the weekend Audit news, whilst gains compounded after HK Chief Executive Lam said she will not seek a second term. * China on Saturday proposed revising confidentiality rules involving offshore listings, removing a legal hurdle to cooperation on audit oversight while putting the onus on Chinese companies to protect state secrets, via Reuters. * Mainland China was closed due to a domestic holiday.*
NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES
- The Chinese army is sending over 2,000 medical personnel to Shanghai to aid with its COVID outbreak, according to CCTV.
- Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam will not seek re-election, according to NK01.
- South Korea's former PM Han Duck-Soo has been nominated as PM. He said the country needs to take more efforts to curb rising household debt, financial imbalances, and to maintain a trade surplus, according to Reuters.
- Pakistani PM Khan's cabinet has been dissolved and fresh elections will be held in 90 days, according to Reuters.
- Sri Lanka's government imposed a curfew amid the rising domestic unrest, via Reuters.
Ukrainian Defense Minister says so far there is nothing to satisfy us in negotiations with RussiaRussian Kremlin says their delegation is putting colossal energy into Ukraine peace talks, conditions are absolutely clear; pushes back on FT reportsEuropean bourses are predominantly negative, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, after a relatively constructive open; US futures in-fittingDXY continues to unwind its upside with GBP awaiting BoE and Lira the...
Fed raised rates by 25bps as expected and expects a further six hikes in 2022 and four in 2023.Fed Chair Powell said the Fed expects to reduce the size of its balance sheet at a coming meeting.US stocks closed higher after shaking off the initial kneejerk hawkish reaction to the FOMC. APAC stocks also gained.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.2% after the cash market...
Constructive commentary from Ukraine's Zelensky and Russia's Lavrov, though more time is still neededEuropean bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +3.3%, after a firmer handover and on geopolsUS futures are firmer across the board, NQ +1.9% outperforming amid overnight tech action, influencing European sectorsDXY reels amid support for EUR on yield action ahead of noted EUR/USD option interest at the NY...
APAC stocks gained after a strong handover from Wall St; S&P 500 +2.2%, Nasdaq 100 +3.2%.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.6% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1% yesterday.Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the positions of Ukraine and Russia at negotiations sound more realistic. Fitch warns that Russia would be in default if it pays USD coupons in...
Ukrainian President Zelensky said negotiations with Russia will continue on Tuesday; Kremlin says it is positive talks are continuing.European bourses are pressured, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%, but off lows after a bout of early pressure amid Russia-Ukraine developments.Stateside, US futures are moving in tandem directionally but magnitudes more contained, ES -0.2%, as focus turns to FOMCCore debt's initial recovery fizzles out as Bunds hit...
APAC stocks mostly declined following the soft handover from the US which saw the NDX close in a technical bear market.European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed higher by 1.5% yesterday.White House warned there will be significant consequences for China if it provides assistance to Russia that violates sanctions.US President Biden could attend an...
Russian and Ukrainian officials on Sunday gave their most upbeat assessments so far on the progress of talks and suggested there could be positive results within daysEuropean bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.1%, following a mixed APAC handover amid conflicting headlines; US futures are firmer across the board but with magnitudes more containedDXY and FX-havens continue to pull back with EUR finding support amid noted expiries but is yet to test...
APAC stocks were mixed as participants digested varied geopolitical headlines. China was pressured by the lockdown in Shenzhen.Russian and Ukrainian officials on Sunday gave their most upbeat assessments so far on the progress of talks.Russia launched an airstrike on a military base near the Polish border on Sunday.European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.1% after the cash market...
Russian President Putin says there are certain positive shifts in talks with Ukraine - sparking significant risk-on.European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +3.0%, as are US futures though magnitudes are more contained amid a thin US docket.DXY is firmer, but off-highs, in tandem with the broader move that sees US/German 10yr yields at 2.0% and 0.30% again.WTI and Brent futures are firmer on the day with initial upside bolstered by a...
APAC stocks traded negatively following the soft lead from the US and with Chinese tech names spooked by US delisting fears.Russia agreed to allow a Ukrainian repair team to access power lines in the area around the Chernobyl nuclear power station.US President Biden is to call for an end to Russia's preferred trade status.European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market...
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba says no progress on a ceasefire; Russia stuck to its script; holding the meeting with his Russian counterpart was not easy; ready to meet again in this formatRussian Foreign Minister says a possible meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents was discussed, but need more preparationsEquities continue to move lower as yesterday's exuberance wanes and further pressure emerges from the readout of the Ukrainian-Russian...
APAC stocks traded with firm gains following a strong session for Wall St.; S&P 500 +2.6%, Nasdaq +3.6%.European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 7.4% yesterday.Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is prepared for certain compromises but the other side also needs to compromise.US House voted to approve the USD 1.5tln...
European bourses are firmer across the board as risk-sentiment recovers, Euro Stoxx 50 +5.0%; albeit, Energy/Basic Resources names are lagging amid an unwinding in geopolitical-premia, evidenced notably in crude.US futures are firmer across the board, though the magnitude of action is less pronounced when compared to European peers, ES +1.7%.Russia says "some progress" has been made in discussions with Ukraine; subsequently, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba says...
US stocks finished mostly lower whilst the APAC region posted a mixed performance overnight. European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.7% after the cash market closed down 0.2% yesterday.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will travel to Turkey today to meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba. DXY sits just below 99.00, EUR/USD reclaimed 1.0900, AUD leads in the G10 FX...
European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, after an initial boost to sentiment on source reports around large-scale EU bond issuance; albeit, this upside has waned.Similar action has been exhibited in US futures, ES +0.4%, though performance there is positive across the board once more after a brief foray back into negative territory.EU is reportedly considering a massive joint bond sale to finance defence and energy, according to Bloomberg citing sources;...
S&P 500 and Dow Jones suffered their worst performance YTD and the Nasdaq Comp. finished in a bear market.APAC stocks were seen lower overnight and US equity futures extended on losses; ES -0.7%.The Euro Stoxx 50 future is down 2.4% after the cash market closed down 1.2% and in bear market territory yesterday.Ukraine said talks with Russia led to small positive developments, but there were no significant results on a truce or...
European bourses are hampered across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%, as geopolitics continue to dominate; US futures are also pressured, ES -1.7%, but faring marginally betterWTI and Brent surge amid multiple bullish-factors re. US possibly banning Russian oil, Iran-nuclear delays and China growth ambitions; thus, benchmarks reached highs of USD 130.50/bbl and USD 139.13/bbl respectively.Russian & Ukraine Foreign Ministers are to meet in Antalya, Turkey,...
Ukraine's ruling party head said the third round of talks with Russia will take place on Monday.US Secretary of State Blinken said the US and allies are in active discussions regarding a Russian oil import ban; Brent rose above USD 139/bbl at one stage. Russian demands for sanction exemptions have delayed Iranian nuclear talks. Asian stocks are lower, US futures are negative with the e-mini S&P below 4300, European...
European bourses are hampered, Euro Stoxx 50 -3.7%, after sentiment was hit on the escalating Zaporizhzhia nuclear situation, with Russia now having control of the areaStateside, US futures, ES -0.8%, are pressured but remain modestly above overnight lows as participants look to today's Labour Market ReportUkraine Presidential advisor says they will not say the date/time of the next round of discussions with Russia in advanceDXY continues...
Ukraine and Russia reached an understanding on a joint provision of humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians.Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was attacked by Russia; safety of the plant has since been secured. APAC stocks were seen lower amid fears surrounding the Russian attack on the Ukrainian power plant. European equity futures are indicative of a negative open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 2.1% after...
Next round of Russia-Ukraine discussions could start at 12:00GMT today; though, Russia notes that they are awaiting the arrival of the Ukrainian delegationEuropean bourses are lower and in-line with the generally cautious mood ahead of negotiations; US futures lower, ES -0.1%, but more contained pre-data & Fed speakDXY remains firm and either side of 97.50, with peers generally lower and havens not benefitting from the cautious tone in-fitting with the core...
APAC stocks traded mostly positive following gains in the US where stocks and yields climbed.European equity futures are indicative of a flat open after the Eurostoxx 50 cash market closed higher by 1.5% yesterday.DXY remains on a firm footing, EUR/USD hovers around 1.11 and Cable is circa 1.34.Interfax reported that Russia and Ukraine are to hold talks today. Fitch and Moody's cut Russia's sovereign...
Ukraine and Russia will hold a second round of discussion later today, via Tass citing an aide to the Ukraine presidential office - awaiting Ukranian confirmation.Earlier, Russia's Kremlin says the Russian delegation will be waiting later today and are ready to continue talks; not clear if Ukrainian officials will attend the talks.Losses in Europe trimmed and bourses are now predominantly positive following Kremlin commentary around today's potential negotiations,...
US stocks finished lower (S&P 500 -1.6%) with Asian equities also seen softer overnight. European equity futures are indicative of a soft open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 4.0% yesterday.In FX, the DXY extended on gains above 97.00, EUR/USD has reclaimed 1.1100 and cable sits on a 1.33 handle.US President Biden said getting prices under control is his highest...
Sentiment in equities has moved to risk-off as the mornings Russia-Ukraine updates are generally downbeat; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.5%, ES -0.5%US futures are lower across the board, ES -0.5%, though magnitudes are more contained than their European peers as participants look to a heavy data-docket ahead and Fed speak incl. Powell later in the weekUkrainian President Zelensky says that negotiations with the Russian side have not achieved required results while Russian...
European bourses are firmer in a continuation of positive APAC/US trade, catalysts light thus far going into Thursday's US CPIUS futures post broad-based gains in a continuation of yesterday's action awaiting Central Bank speakGreenback ground down, but off recent lows ahead of Fed speakers on the eve of US CPI; peers supported and high beta outpacingBonds regroup after Tuesday's meltdown, with Bunds outpacing UK peers after remarks from...
US stocks were higher and finished near the best levels of the day; S&P 500 +0.8% at 4,520Asian stocks traded higher with earnings releases in focus and following the positive handover from Wall StEuropean futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Eurostoxx 50 future up by 0.9% after the cash market closed higher by 0.2% yesterdayDXY hovers around 95.50, EUR/USD maintains 1.14 status and antipodeans lead in the G10...
European bourses are mixed and in proximity to the unchanged mark following an indecisive open; sectors similarly mixed.US futures are also mixed/unchanged, action directionally following European peers but has been more contained thus far.China State funds have reportedly purchased stocks to slow the market decline, according to Bloomberg.DXY firmer around 95.50 pivot point as UST curve flips and flattens; peers mixed but magnitudes...
US stocks finished mixed (S&P 500 -0.4%) following a choppy, catalyst-lite session with indices stumbling into the closeAsian stocks were mixed after the choppy mood in the US with newsflow dominated by geopolitical headlinesEuropean futures are indicative of a softer open with the Eurostoxx 50 future down by 0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.3% yesterdayDXY marginally gained above 95.50 but with price action contained....
Core European bourses are choppy and mixed overall, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, though the periphery is pressured on domestic debt downside; FTSE MIB -1.6%Stateside, US futures are pressured but have also been choppy/rangebound for the most part, RTY lagsDollar retains the bulk of its stellar BLS labour report gains, but eases from best levels; with peers mixed across the boardBTPs drop as core-periphery spreads widen with Lagarde in focus,...
US stocks finished mostly positive on Friday in what was a choppy session as investors digested a blow-out NFP reportAsian stocks were mixed with mainland Chinese participants returning from the Lunar New Year holidayEuropean futures are indicative of a higher open with the Eurostoxx 50 future up by 0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 1.3% on FridayDXY climbed back above 95.50 post-NFP beat with participants eyeing this week's US...
European equities have drifted from the positive cash open despite a lack of news flow; US equity futures have largely given up earlier gains, NQ remains the outperformer post-AmazonDXY is contained but with a negative bias as EUR extends further, GBP pullsback and antipodeans lagCore EGB benchmarks came under further pressure in early-European hours on further hawkish repricing; USTs remain relatively containedWTI and Brent continue to...
Asian stocks eventually traded mostly positive following the tech-related turbulence in USAfter-market earnings saw Amazon (AMZN) rising 14% and Snap (SNAP) soaring almost 60%US equity futures rose overnight with the NQ (+2%) leading the gains; Amazon holds an ~8% weighting in the NDXIn FX, DXY extended further below 96.00, EUR/USD climbed above 1.1450 and Cable briefly reclaimed a 1.3600 handleIn fixed income,...
European bourses are pressured, Stoxx 600 -0.7% given the US after-market read across, followed by numerous earnings releases in the pre-market dictating individual movers/sectors.US futures are subdued and the NQ underperforms on Meta (-20%) earnings while the ES/RTY fare marginally better going into risk events.DXY has seen a bounce as peers pull-back going into BoE/ECB with G10 peers pressured across the board.Core debt is contained/choppy while EGB periphery benchmarks lag marginally amid...
US stocks finished mostly higher in which major indices gained for a 4th straight day, although futures were sold overnight as Meta shares slumped over 20% post-earningsAsian stocks were mostly negative and took their cues from the selling pressure in US equity futures and the Meta slumpEuropean futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Eurostoxx 50 future down by 0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1%...
European bourses are firmer benefitting from after-market US updates amid a number of European earnings; sectors are predominantly in the green with Tech outperforming post-GoogleUS futures are bolstered across the board as the NQ outperforms given Google's +10.5% gains in the pre-market and its heavyweight status in the index; note, Meta and Amazon earnings are due Wednesday and Thursday respectivelyGreenback continues to soften on repositioning and hit on EUR...
US stocks finished higher as buying late in the session helped stocks breakout from early tentativeness (S&P 500 +0.6%)Asian stocks were positive as the region took impetus from Wall St's best 3-day performance since 2020US equity futures traded mostly higher overnight led by the Nasdaq 100 futures after strong Alphabet and AMD earnings; E-mini S&P +0.5%European futures are indicative of a positive open with the Eurostoxx 50...
European bourses are firmer taking impetus from the holiday-thinned APAC handover and Monday's US close; albeit, benchmarks are off best levels, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%Stateside, US futures are relatively contained but have moved directionally with European peers, the NQ remains the current modest outperformerDXY sheds more Fed rate hike premium and month-end rebalancing momentum; with peers firmer across the boardCore debt regrouping after month-end rout, with data on the horizon amid a limited...
US stocks rallied amid month-end rebalancing and in the aftermath of recent heavy selling. S&P 500 (+1.9%), Nasdaq (+3.4%). Asian stocks were positive but with upside limited amid mass holiday closures for the Lunar New Year.European futures are indicative of a positive open with the Eurostoxx 50 future up by 1.0% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% yesterday.DXY lacklustre ahead of the European open, EUR/USD capped...
31st January 2022European equities kicked off the week with gains across the board before momentum wanedUS equity futures have eased off best levels to conform to a mostly downward bias; NQ outperformsIn FX, Dollar drifts along into month-end whilst traditional havens lag; Aussie outperforms pre-RBAFed’s Bostic (2024 voter) suggested that a rate increase of 50bps is possible if inflation remains stubbornly...
US stocks finished higher on Friday after they shrugged off an initial choppy start; Apple surged 7%Asian stocks were mostly positive but with conditions thinned due to closures on Chinese New Year's EveUS equities futures were marginally higher overnight but with gains contained heading into month-endFed’s Bostic (2024 voter) suggested that a rate increase of 50bps is possible if inflation remains stubbornly...
European bourses have conformed to the downbeat APAC handover with losses in the region extending following the cash open, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.7%.US futures are moving in tandem with European-peers; however, magnitudes are more contained as the ES is only modestly negative and NQ continues to cling onto positive territory following Apple earningsBuck bull run continues as DXY takes out another July 2020 high; peers pressured across the board as suchBonds back off as curves realign in wake of heavy...
All major US indices were subdued with initial gains reversed as selling re-emerged into the NY afternoonAsian stocks eventually traded mixed although China lagged ahead of holiday closures next weekUS equities benefitted overnight as Apple shares rose 5% following its earnings beatIn FX, DXY held on to most its recent gains above 97.00, EUR/USD remained firmly beneath 1.1200, GBP/USD reclaimed 1.3400...
Major bourses in Europe are nursing the post-Fed pressure with the complex now mixed.US futures saw an initial recovery but have since dipped back into modest negative territory, though they remain off overnight troughs.USD bid post-Fed with the DXY eyeing 97.00, to the detriment of peers across the board.Debt is pressured but off-lows, while BTPs outperform as we await the 4th round of Italian voting.WTI and Brent have trimmed APAC losses, while focus remains very much on geopolitics as...
FOMC expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range with bond-buying to end in MarchFed Chair Powell did not rule out raising interest rates at every FOMC meetingAll major US indices finished lower and APAC equity markets sold off following the FOMC and hawkish Fed Chair Powell commentsEuropean futures are indicative of a weaker open with the Eurostoxx 50 future lower by 2.4%DXY printed YTD highs with G10 peers all softer against the greenback ahead of the...
European bourses are firmer in an extension of yesterday's upside, with the Stoxx 600 +2.0% on the session but still lower on the week.US futures are firmer across the board with the NQ, +2.0%, outpacing and benefitting from MSFT post earnings, +4.0% in pre-market.Greenback stands firm awaiting something hawkish from the Fed; newsquawk preview
All major US indices finished lower after attempts to recover earlier losses were reversed into the last hour of tradeAPAC markets were subdued ahead of the FOMC and holiday-quietened conditionsEuropean futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Eurostoxx 50 future higher by 0.6%DXY traded sideways beneath 96.00. EUR/USD and GBP/USD hover around 1.13 and 1.35 respectivelyMicrosoft shares recouped initial post-earnings losses to trade higher by 1.2% after-hoursLooking...
European bourses are firmer taking the lead from the resurgence in Wall St. trade that they failed to benefit from yesterday, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%.Stateside, US futures are pressured with the NQ (-1.4%) the current underperformer after yesterday's turnaround and as yields climb.DXY nudges further over 96.000 as hawkish FOMC expectations overshadow less supportive risk dynamics, safehavens and EUR underperform.Core bonds make way for partial recovery in risk sentiment, with yields elevated as such...
All major US indices finished higher after having recovered from heavy intraday selling in what was a roller-coaster session.APAC markets were heavily pressured after yesterday's whirlwind session in the US. European futures point towards a firmer open.DXY traded steadily and held on to most of the prior day's gains just shy of the 96.00 statusUS Department of Defense spokesperson Kirby said 8,500 US personnel are ready to be activated to...
All major US indices finished higher after having recovered from heavy intraday selling in what was a roller-coaster session.APAC markets were heavily pressured after yesterday's whirlwind session in the US. European futures point towards a firmer open.DXY traded steadily and held on to most of the prior day's gains just shy of the 96.00 statusUS Department of Defense spokesperson Kirby said 8,500 US personnel are ready to be activated to...