Doing Business In China: Recent Episodes
Forsyth Barr
China’s Economic Risks
We spoke with Christopher Balding, Professor of economics at Peking University HSBC Business School. Chis is a well know student of China’s economy. He has was over 10k followers on twitter, and writes on the Balding's World blog on China, as well as a column on Bloomberg View on China.
We spoke on several issues including;
- The official Xinhua news (owned by the Communist party) wrote an article on “Why is 6 pct growth achievable for China's economy” out beyond 2020 thanks to improvement in industrial structure, upgrading of consumer spending and progress of urbanization. Chris expressed his concerns with some issues like low productivity and negative demographics.
- Chris’s take on China’s ability to drive innovation and deploy technology to help drive growth
- His thoughts on supply side reform, and SOE reform.
- His concerns about Chinese debt, and more broadly the risks in the financial system.
- The property market in China, and the divergence between upper tier cities and lower tier cities
China Debt Challenges
Today we are speaking to Tony Tang. Tony has 19 years’ experience in China, with past experience as being managing director and head of ratings at Dagong Glboal, one of China’s largest rating agencies. Before that he was director of China ratings at S&P. We discussed:
· Should we be concerned with China’s debt position, and where most of the debt is contracted · Debt within state owned enterprises, and if this will make it easier for China to handle debt risks · What measures China should employee to reduce the risks of debt accumulation becoming systematic · The growth in consumer debt in China · The differences between Chinese rating agencies and international peers · The growth in China’s corporate bond market · Measures China needs to introduce to attract foreign capital to the bond and equity markets · Shadow banking in China
Find out more at www.forsythbarr.co.nz
Being a Foreign Entrepreneur in China, with Mitch Presnick.
Mitch is an very success American Entrepreneur who has been in China for almost 30 years. Mitch ran government affairs for Budweiser in China for 8 years, before going on to launch Super 8 hotels, has been an incredible successes story (they have over 1000 hotels). He is also now at an award winning alternative investment manager specialising in China-related securities. Mitch is regularly on CNBC, and also did a TedX talk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Lr-Mv9yCd0). We spoke to Mitch about his experiences launching businesses in China.
Song Gao, who is co-CEO and head of research at PRC Macro (a China macro consulting firm). Previously Song served as China Country Representative and Principal Analyst for the Observatory Group (Washington, DC). In this capacity he was responsible for all macro, political and policy research. Prior to joining Observatory Group he served as a Senior Economist of China Monitor Inc (CMI), a platform for China macroeconomic and industry forecasting and analysis drawing on the extensive resources of partner company China Economic Information Network (CEInet). Prior to joining CMI he was a professor and researcher at Junniata College in the US.
http://www.prcmacro.com/about
We discussed;
- The upcoming party congress
- The reform agenda in the coming years
- Why China will still try and achieve high growth in the next 5 years
- Measures the government can take to boost consumption
- What the government may do to reduce debt risks