World of Oil Derivatives: Recent Episodes
Greg Newman
The only oil swaps market specific podcast is back. Join Onyx Capital Group CEO, Greg Newman, and a plethora of industry guests as they dig down each week into the issues that affect the market. Are you paying attention?
In this special edition of Flux News, Lisa Aziz leads thirty packed minutes of analysis, reaction and market insight following the Chancellor’s long-awaited UK Budget announcement.
With major tax changes on income, pensions, savings, property and electric vehicles — plus a controversial bundle of pre-budget leaks — the statement has already stirred political confrontation and market volatility. We hear from the Chancellor, Opposition response, and experts across the world to understand what the budget really delivers.
Economist Vicky Price unpacks the hidden tax rises, frozen allowances, rising business costs and the challenges ahead for UK growth. Our global team of trading specialists — including James Brodie, Jorge Montepeque, Martha Dowding, and Manny Newman — assess how the budget lands across London, Dubai, Singapore and the wider global markets.
From Gilt yields and currency moves to Asian investor sentiment and the future of UK oil and gas infrastructure, this episode delivers a comprehensive, global view of a budget announced late, leaked early and debated fiercely.
A must-watch for anyone navigating markets, policy, or the UK’s economic future.
A potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal sends shockwaves through global oil markets - could crude really crash toward $30 a barrel? Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group and Julian Keites from Flux Markets join Martin Stanford to unpack the unprecedented volatility, from floating barrels to a possible whiplash in consumer fuel prices.
The panel dives into France’s surprise discovery of naturally occurring “white hydrogen,” debating whether it’s the real breakthrough the energy transition has been waiting for - or just another over-hyped curiosity. Plus, we break down the UK’s new nuclear reform report, the hidden signals in the Chancellor’s budget, the latest twists in gas and petrol prices across Britain, and whether COP30 delivered action or just more diplomatic hot air.
Fast-moving, data-driven, and unfiltered: this week’s UK Energy Show delivers the essential insights behind every headline shaping the global energy story.
EnergyNews #OilMarkets #GasPrices #CrudeOil #EnergyTrading #Commodities #EnergyMarkets #GlobalEnergy #OilAndGas #EnergyTransition #UkraineRussia #Geopolitics #PeaceDeal #MarketVolatility #MacroNews #GlobalMarkets #USPolitics #Sanctions
In this week’s Macro Mondays, Lisa Aziz joins James Brodie and James Todd to break down the key macro trends driving global markets. With US labour data showing early signs of strain, unemployment rising, and consumer confidence sinking to its lowest levels since 2022, recession risk is moving sharply higher.
AI-linked equities face renewed volatility as NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings failed to lift markets, triggering a multi-asset liquidation event. UK data softens further ahead of a critical budget, while currency markets rotate back into dollar strength. Commodities remain mixed—gold clings to key support, copper holds firm, uranium unwinds, and Brent struggles as geopolitical risks collide with weakening macro signals.
Key highlights include:
✅ US unemployment ticks higher; weekly jobless claims exceed expectations
✅ Michigan consumer confidence falls to the second-weakest level since 1990
✅ Inflation re-accelerates to 3% YoY, complicating the Fed’s December meeting
✅ UK retail sales disappoint; PMIs weaken; budget deficit widens
✅ Pound breaks key support as UK sentiment deteriorates
✅ NVIDIA beats expectations but triggers heavy tech liquidation
✅ SPX, AI stocks & leveraged tech positions unwind sharply
✅ Oracle CDS jumps as markets question AI-linked debt loads
✅ Gold holds support; copper resilient despite broader volatility
✅ Uranium sells off as power-demand assumptions face scrutiny
✅ Bitcoin drops 24% in November — worst month since June 2022
✅ Markets price a 77% chance of a Fed cut on December 10
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – German IFO
📅 Tuesday – US PPI, Retail Sales, ADP Employment
📅 Wednesday – UK Budget, US Jobless Claims, PCE Inflation, New Home Sales, Australian CPI
📅 Thursday – US Thanksgiving (Markets Closed)
📅 Friday – Japan CPI, Employment & Retail Sales
⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Introduction and Overview
01:31 – US Data: Jobs, Inflation & Consumer Confidence
05:41 – UK Retail Sales, PMIs & Budget Risks
09:25 – Equities & AI Volatility (NVIDIA, S&P 500)
10:41 – USD Strength & FX Market Breakdown
11:50 – AI Debt, Oracle CDS & Fund Manager Positioning
16:03 – Private Equity, SPX Divergence & Market Fragility
16:36 – Fed Cut Odds & US Rates Outlook
17:34 – Dollar Index, Yen & Global FX
18:30 – Gold, Uranium & Copper - Commodities
21:30 – Brent, Power Demand & Geopolitics
23:48 – Crypto Crash: Bitcoin Down 24%
25:44 – Global Central Bank Rate-Cut Outlook
26:30 – This Week’s Data & Events
27:10 – Training Courses & How to Learn With Us
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this week’s edition of The UK Energy Show, we bring you a fast-moving, insight-packed look at the biggest developments shaping Britain’s energy landscape. From the high-stakes negotiations at COP30 to the latest shocks in global oil markets, our panel breaks down what truly matters for UK consumers, businesses, and policymakers.
We examine the emerging and fragile consensus on a global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, with analysis of the political tensions, financial hurdles, and real-world affordability challenges that could make or break any agreement. With Ukrainian strikes pushing Moscow’s refineries offline and new US sanctions about to hit, we look at why Russian oil prices are falling even as UK diesel prices surge - and what drivers can expect at the pump in the coming weeks.
There’s big news for Wales too: the government has confirmed plans for the UK’s first small modular nuclear reactors, prompting a lively debate on whether SMRs are the future of clean, reliable baseload power or an expensive gamble.
Plus, we dive into what’s trending on social media - from Exxon’s closures and potential acquisitions to the perennial question of China’s emissions, and we preview the rumours swirling around the upcoming UK Budget, including fuel duty, VAT changes, and the future of EV road charging.
Hosted by Martin Stanford and joined by Greg Newman, Group CEO of Onyx Capital Group, and Julian Keites of Flux Markets, offering clear explanations, sharp market insight, and candid views on where energy prices and policy are heading next.
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UKEnergy #EnergyCrisis #EnergyMarkets #OilMarkets #GasPrices #DieselPrices #NuclearEnergy #SMR #COP30 #ClimatePolicy #Commodities
In this week’s episode of Trading Corner, the team breaks down one of the most dramatic weeks the physical crude market has seen in years. We explore the sharp sell-off in Dated Brent, the mechanics behind a major trade-house’s aggressive positioning, and how just a handful of unplaced cargoes triggered a cascade through differentials and spreads.
From the collapse in WTI and Forties diffs, to the sudden rebound driven by refiners emerging from maintenance, we map out how liquidity, sanctions headlines, and curve imbalances set the stage for extreme volatility. On the product side, we look at the sharp correction in margins, jittery gasoline demand, and why gasoil remains the key complex to watch heading into winter.
With colder weather approaching, shifting refinery capacity, and persistent supply-demand uncertainty, the hosts outline their positioning views—from long TI/Brent boxes to back-end margin plays—and explain what they expect heading into December and beyond.
OilMarkets #CrudeTrading #DatedBrent #EnergyMarkets #CommodityTrading #OilPriceAction #RefiningMargins #BrentSpreads #WTI #GasOil #EnergyTrading #MarketVolatility #OilSanctions #PhysicalCrude #ProductMarkets #WinterDemand #TradingCorner #MacroEnergy #OilAnalytics #CommodityInsights
In this week’s Macro Mondays, Lisa Aziz joins James Brodie and James Todd to break down the key macro trends shaping global markets. With US data delayed after the government shutdown, early indicators point to rising recession risk, weaker labour markets, and falling consumer confidence.
AI stocks face renewed volatility as major tech names correct sharply, while Japan’s yields surge and China continues to slow. Commodities stay mixed—gold and copper hold firm, oil trades in a tight range, and Bitcoin slips into a bear trend as whale selling accelerates.
Key highlights include:
✅ 88% of Americans now living in states in recession
✅ US foreclosures up 20%; subprime auto delinquencies worst in 30 years
✅ China industrial production & investment disappoint
✅ UK unemployment rises to 5%; growth slips to 0.1%
✅ AI stocks unwind: Oracle –36%, Tesla –15%, CoreWeave –37%
✅ Japanese bond yields break to multi-decade highs
✅ Dollar-yen breaks out on fears of Japanese credit risk
✅ Precious metals spike but broad commodity supercycle unlikely
✅ Copper & uranium driven by AI-linked power demand
✅ Bitcoin enters bear market; volatility accelerates
✅ Central banks: Fed cut odds fall below 50% due to missing data
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – ADP Employment (US)
📅 Wednesday – NVIDIA Earnings, FOMC Minutes, UK & Eurozone Inflation
📅 Thursday – September Jobs Report (US), Philly Fed, Japan Inflation
📅 Friday – UK Retail Sales, Global Flash PMIs, UMich Confidence
⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Introduction
00:42 – Market Headlines & Macro Overview
01:55 – US Data Delay, Jobs & Recession Signals
04:28 – Chinese Data Disappoints Again
05:15 – UK Data: Unemployment & Growth
06:33 – Equity Moves & AI Stock Volatility
10:04 – Currencies & Bond Market Outlook
14:03 – Commodities Surge
20:44 – OIS Pricing For The Next 12 Months
21:38 – Crypto Market Overview
23:00 – Key Data Releases & Closing Summary
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Brodie is joined by James Todd and Will Cunliffe, as they dive into the latest macro shifts shaking global markets.
Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” has injected fresh volatility, lifting gold and equities while raising major concerns around inflation, fiscal credibility, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.
At the same time, US layoffs are accelerating, consumer sentiment has plunged to its second-lowest reading ever, and job openings have collapsed - signalling clear labour-market softness. AI stocks remain under pressure as Michael Burry places heavy short positions, triggering sharp corrections across NVIDIA, Palantir, Meta and other Magnificent 7 names.
Meanwhile, structural imbalances deepen across global markets. AI data centres are driving unprecedented electricity demand, commercial real estate delinquencies are spiking, and US yields fluctuate as traders weigh recession risks versus stimulus-driven inflation. Bitcoin hovers around the critical $100k level as whale liquidation continues and its long-standing correlation with the NASDAQ breaks down.
Key highlights include:
✅ Trump’s $2,000 “tariff dividend” sparks inflation fears
✅ US layoffs spike; consumer confidence hits second-lowest on record
✅ AI stocks sell off sharply as hedge funds rebuild shorts
✅ NASDAQ volatility rises; rotation out of crowded tech trades
✅ AI data centres drive record power demand and grid strain
✅ Commercial real estate delinquencies hit all-time highs
✅ Brent crude drifts lower; refinery outages and sanctions support products
✅ Bitcoin tests key support at $100,000 amid whale selling
✅ Bond markets remain directionless as traders await Fed clarity
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – UK Retail Sales, UK Employment Data, German ZEW
📅 Wednesday – German Inflation, OPEC Monthly Report
📅 Thursday – UK GDP, UK Industrial Production, Australian Employment
📅 Friday – French Inflation, US PPI
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 10th of November, 2025 at 12:30 PM BST.
📖Learn directly from James Brodie at Flux Institute: https://fluxinstitute.flux.live/store
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Stay updated with weekly macro insights & deep-dive market analysis.
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
What really built modern oil markets- genius traders, clever tech, or a tight-knit community willing to reinvent the rules? In this wide-ranging conversation, Colin Bryce, co-author of The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading, pulls back the curtain on the people, places, and decisions that shaped Brent, birthed ICE, and turned a niche business into a global engine of liquidity.
From Morgan Stanley’s early experiments and Enron Online’s single-dealer shock, to the Platts–ICE symbiosis and today’s entrenched market infrastructure, Bryce traces how innovation happens, and why it’s harder now. He argues trading has evolved from a solo craft to a team sport, and warns that “speed” adds little social value, and makes the case for client-centric liquidity and real-world relationships in an age obsessed with algorithms. Greg and Colin also look east—China, India, Dubai—and ask whether the next reinvention will come from new centres of gravity or from rebuilding community in the West.
Guest: Colin Bryce
Book: The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading
This week on Macro Mondays, the team breaks down a packed week in global markets - from Trump’s new trade deal with China and growing military tension in Venezuela, to the Fed’s pivot away from quantitative tightening amid record US debt. James Todd, Will Cunliffe,and Spyridon Kokas explore whether the AI boom led by OpenAI and NVIDIA is turning into a bubble, why Buffett’s $380B cash pile signals caution, and how Europe’s stagnation and rising oil volatility could shape markets ahead. Plus, they dive into gold’s $4,000 floor, the S&P’s shaky rally, and what traders should watch as recession risks resurface.
Key highlights include:
✅ US-China agree on new trade deal
✅ Trump to attack Venezuela?
✅ Fed to restart QE while US debt rises at record pace
✅ Euro Area struggles
✅ S&P trends higher thanks to AI, but elsewhere stocks struggle
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday - US, EA, UK, India and Canada Manufacturing PMI
📅 Tuesday – Japan Manufacturing PMI, France Budget Balance
📅 Wednesday – US, EA, UK and Canada Services PMI, France Industrial Production
📅 Thursday – BoE Rate Decision, EA retail sales, Japan and India Services PMI, EA Construction PMI
📅 Friday – China, Germany and France Trade data, US Michigan data, Japan household spending PMI
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 3rd of November, 2025 at 12:30PM BST.
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UK diesel prices just jumped after fresh US/UK sanctions targeting Russian oil producers — and the knock-on could be big. In this week’s UK Energy Show, we break down the two-tier oil market (sanctioned barrels stuck “on the water” vs freely traded supply), why diesel is the pressure point, and how Lukoil’s asset sale and Petrofac’s collapse play into UK energy, jobs, and prices. We also dig into North Sea politics (Rosebank & Jackdaw), the Tony Blair Institute’s call to slow the 2030 clean-energy push, and why electricity stays high when gas is ~6p/kWh but power caps at ~26p/kWh.
What you’ll learn
How tougher secondary sanctions can squeeze legal supply and lift UK diesel
Why India’s pivot to non-Russian barrels tightens the “free” market
The real-world impact: pump prices, logistics costs, and your weekly shop
Lukoil (refinery sales) & Petrofac (administration): signals vs realities
Brent vs dated Brent: the price that actually matters for North Sea flows
Rosebank/Jackdaw economics, Equinor’s role, and UK competitiveness
UKEnergy #DieselPrices #OilMarket #Sanctions #Lukoil #Petrofac #Brent #NorthSea #CostOfLiving #FuelHedging
In this week’s Macro Mondays James Todd is joined by Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe to unpack another turbulent week across global markets.
US equities hit fresh all-time highs as lower-than-expected CPI data fuels optimism - yet the rally is increasingly narrow, driven by speculative tech names with little to no earnings. Meanwhile, recession risks are flashing red, with UBS warning of a 93% probability and nearly a third of US states already contracting.
In Asia, China’s deflation deepens to its worst levels since 2004, while GDP growth slips below target and fixed-asset investment turns negative, underscoring the fragility of its recovery.
Commodities told a very different story: gold suffered its biggest single-day fall since 2013, silver followed suit, and the dollar rebounded as traders priced out rate cuts. Oil surged on renewed Russian sanctions, and volatility returned to precious metals markets.
Key highlights include:
✅ U.S. equites make new all-time highs S&P500 and Nasdaq
✅ While Gold & Silver come crashing down to earth
✅ Brent spikes on fresh Russian sanctions
✅ US CPI come in lower than expected
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – Gfk consumer confidence, India Industrial Prod
📅 Wednesday – Spain GDP flash, US pending home sales, FOMC
📅 Thursday – Euro GDP, ECB interest rate decision
📅 Friday – China NBS PMI, Euro inflation, Germany retail sales
🕒 This episode aired live on Monday, the 27th of October, 2025 at 12:30pm GMT
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In this special extended edition of the UK Energy Show , Greg Newman and Julian Keites break down Ed Miliband’s recent BBC interview and what it really means for household bills, grid investment, and the future of UK energy.
From the rising non-commodity costs buried in your electricity bill to the hidden “tax” of net zero infrastructure, we unpack the mechanics behind energy pricing and how government policy is shaping what you pay. We also dive into the promises of 400,000 new green jobs, the role of CFDs and renewables in stabilising costs, and the controversy surrounding Rosebank - the North Sea oil field that could reshape the UK’s energy balance.
If you’ve ever wondered why your energy bill isn’t falling, or what’s really driving government energy decisions, this episode gives you the clearest breakdown yet.
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Brodie is joined by James Todd and Spyridon Kokas as they dive into the most recent market shifts. US regional banks are under pressure, while the broader banking sector now holds over $395 billion in unrealised losses tied to bond and securities markdowns.
At the same time, US equities are roaring into year-end, with record inflows into tech stocks and margin debt surging to the highest numbers on record.
Meanwhile, China’s macro picture continues to deteriorate. GDP growth slowed, household consumption weakened, and fixed asset investment contracted for the first time since 2020, highlighting a fragile domestic backdrop.
In the commodities space, precious metals were rocked by volatility, with both silver and palladium falling sharply despite record inflows into gold and silver ETFs the week prior. With global flash PMIs due this week, investors are increasingly forced to weigh risk-taking against a growing set of macro stress signals.
Key highlights include:
✅ US regional banks under pressure: $395B in unrealised losses
✅ China’s fixed investment falls for the first time since 2020
✅ France’s sovereign credit rating downgraded to A+
✅ Tech mania builds as hedge funds keep selling
✅ Precious metals rocked by volatility; Silver down 4.2%
✅ Brent crude trends lower; Bitcoin volatility picks up
✅ Netflix & Tesla earnings on watch
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – Euro Area Current Account, Canadian PPI
📅 Tuesday – India Infrastructure Output, Canadian Inflation, Fed Waller speech
📅 Wednesday – UK Inflation, Japan Trade Data
📅 Thursday – French Business Confidence, Euro Area Consumer Confidence
📅 Friday – US CPI, UK Retail Sales, Global Flash PMIs, Japan Inflation
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 20th of October, 2025 at 1.30PM BST.
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Welcome to the first episode of The UK Energy Show — your weekly deep dive into what’s really driving UK energy prices - and what you can do about it.
This week:
- The aftermath of Storm Amy, and how wind and solar affect power prices
- Why the UK still pays more for electricity than other European countries
- Energy debates from UK politicians at the Energy UK conference
- How Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries shake global oil markets
Host Martin Stanford interviews energy experts Greg Newman (CEO, Onyx Capital Group) and Julian Keats (Energy Market Specialist, Flux), to break down the latest energy headlines - and what they mean for your home and business bills.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights into UK energy, renewables, and market trends.
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Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:41 Headlines
25:43 The Buzz: Reacting to the online energy discourse
33:58 Herd Mentality: Where's are energy prices heading?
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this week’s Macro Mondays, Will Cunliffe is joined by Spyridon Kokas and Harinder Sandhu to break down a high-volatility week in global markets. Silver surged to historic levels, driven by mounting physical supply constraints and intensifying demand from ETF flows. Meanwhile, Donald Trump reignited the US-China trade war, threatening sweeping new tariffs on Chinese exports just as China unveiled a retaliatory shipping surcharge that escalates over the next three years. This discourse has reopened the concerns over global supply chains, inflation, and US economic credibility.
Across markets, the S&P 500 tumbled 2.7% on Friday but futures rebounded early Monday. Bitcoin dropped $20,000, platinum tested decade highs, and Brent crude continues to whipsaw on shifting geopolitical and trade dynamics.
It's a packed week of data ahead from inflation prints to central bank speeches, stay tuned for next weeks episode for more updates.
Key highlights include:
✅ Silver hits record highs on physical squeeze
✅ Trump threatens sweeping new China tariffs
✅ US–China trade tensions escalate
✅ S&P 500 volatility returns
✅ Platinum joins precious metals rally
✅ Brent crude rangebound on geopolitical noise
✅ Bitcoin drops $20k
📊 Key Data releases this week:
📅 Monday – India September Inflation Rate
📅 Tuesday – Powell, Waller, Collins speeches; UK Unemployment; EA Economic Sentiment
📅 Wednesday – China Inflation, Japan & EA Industrial Production, France/Spain CPI
📅 Thursday – UK GDP, Japan Machinery Orders, Philly Fed
📅 Friday – EA Inflation, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 13th of October, 2025 at 11AM BST.
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In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd, and Spyridon Kokas, break down a week of record highs and rising uncertainty. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Senae Takaichi, pledged sweeping stimulus, sending the Nikkei up nearly 5% and the Yen down 2%, as debt fears grew. In Europe, French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned after less than a month, driving Euro weakness and a sell-off in French bonds, now yielding above Italy’s. U.S. data remains scarce amid the government shutdown, with consumer confidence plunging and UBS pegging recession odds at 90%. Gold surged to new all-time high alongside the S&P500, Nasdaq, NVIDIA, and Bitcoin, while silver, platinum and palladium also surged higher; however, Brent struggled near $65/bbl. Bitcoin hit fresh records as liquidity flooded risk assets. With Powell set to speak and four Fed cuts priced in, the team debates whether gold’s relentless rally or the market’s euphoria is telling the real macro story.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key highlights include:
✅ New Japanese PM supports more stimulus
✅ Gold, S&P500, Nasdaq & Bitcoin makes new all-time highs
✅ Platinum & Palladium look set to join the uptrend
✅ French PM Lecornu resigns today
✅ EURUSD & French bonds both weaken
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – NY Fed inflation expectations
📅 Wednesday – Fed minutes
📅 Thursday - Fed Chair Powell speaks
📅 Friday – UMich consumer sentiment data
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 6th October, 2025 at 11AM BST.
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights
Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Todd is joined by Spyridon Kokas and Mita Chaturvedi to dissect a turbulent week in markets. President Trump has unveiled plans for sweeping new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, just as Washington stares down another potential government shutdown at the October 1st deadline. The Dollar continues to weaken, with Treasury yields sliding as faith in U.S. data erodes and the Fed faces pressure to accelerate rate cuts. Gold and silver both powered to record highs on surging ETF demand, while the Dollar-Yen teeters as the Bank of Japan signals a hawkish tilt. Brent struggles to hold above $70/bbl amid Russian supply hits and a surprise surge in Indonesian exports to China. In equities, Boeing rebounds on a huge Turkish Airlines order, even as the S&P 500 consolidates after recent losses. With non-farm payrolls and critical inflation prints due this week, markets are bracing for another bout of volatility.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key highlights include:
✅ President Trump imposes new tariff
✅ Looming threat of a US government shutdown
✅ US labour market data on watch this week
✅ USD weakens
✅ Gold makes new all-time highs
✅ S&P 500 recovers from a 3-day decline
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – Euro Area Economic Sentiment, Spain Harmonised Inflation
📅 Tuesday – Japan Retail Sales, China NBS and RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, German Harmonised Inflation, France, Italy and Germany Harmonised Inflation, German Unemployment Rate, US JOLTs
📅 Wednesday – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
📅 Thursday – Challenger Job Cuts, US Jobless Claims
📅 Friday – Euro Area PPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls, US ISM Services PMI
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 29th September, 2025 at 11AM BST.
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers:
- US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.
- Fed rate cut bets surge - Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.
- Trump escalates tariffs - New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.
- Global slowdown signals - Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China’s PPI deflation deepens.
- Equity concentration risk - S&P 500’s top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.
- Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump’s Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.
- Stock spotlights - Palantir’s sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals.
Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.
In this episode of Flux Insights, Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian, Quantitative Research Associate Harinder Sandhu, and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi analyse the latest developments in crude oil and refined product markets - including a sharp drop in Brent prices, CTA positioning reversals, and fresh insights from Onyx's proprietary COT data. With technical pressure building across Brent and gasoil futures, the team highlights key support levels, bearish momentum signals, and what traders should watch heading into mid-August.
They also unpack the impact of recent supply disruptions in Azeri crude on the naphtha market, examine the unwinding of long positions, and spotlight a high-conviction trade idea in DFL. Combining market structure analysis, technical signals, and proprietary trading data, this episode offers a comprehensive view for anyone navigating the oil markets.
This episode was recorded at 9am BST on 6th August, 2025
👉 Onyx Alpha report: https://www.flux.live/dashboards/onyx-alpha/
Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/OnyxEnergyNews
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
4:08 Market positioning
10:58 Technically speaking
20:16 COT deep dive
28:05 High conviction trade idea
32:33 Crystal ball (forecast predictions)
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
IMPORTANT: remember, our content is moving away from YouTube and across to Flux.Live as of next week, so make sure to checkout our comprehensive news website for your daily energy news.
In the final episode of the Flux News Show, before we move our shows across to Flux.live, Group CEO Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Geek in the Seat, Martha Dowding, dive deep into a cooling global oil market where volatility has dried up and traders are left waiting for a catalyst.
They explore technical signals like Bollinger Band pinches, why Brent keeps hitting resistance at $70/bbl, and how options and volumes are painting a muted picture. Plus, a deep look at EU-US energy trade deals, refinery impacts from China to the North Sea, and the surprising fallout from a glut of high-sulphur fuel in Asia.
Whether you're tracking cracks, spreads, or the macro grind, this one’s for you.
Topics include:
- Why volatility is collapsing across energy markets
- Brent/Dubai spread moves and what they signal
- US LNG expansion and EU energy security plays
- The reshuffling of refinery flows and trade arbitrage
- Total’s Q2 earnings slump and the underestimated power of trading desks
- Why Japan’s power futures surge matters, and who’s cashing in
Please note, this episode was recorded at 9am BST on 29th July, 2025.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:28 Introduction
1:29 Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market
7:00 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
15:11 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
21:13 Macro Mayhem: Macro Market News
40:11 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins
41:34 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
43:54 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
51:47 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/OnyxFluxNews
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Todd, Will Cunliffe, and Edward Hayden-Briffett unpack the week that was in global markets. Markets are reacting to sweeping new trade deals - notably a major US-EU agreement involving zero tariffs and massive energy investments - while weak US and Eurozone PMIs, consolidating precious metals, and rising Japanese yields signal caution. Meanwhile, investors are withdrawing from US Treasuries amid political uncertainty, China's economy is under pressure despite upcoming stimulus, and global attention turns to a packed week of critical economic data releases.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉 Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key highlights include:
✅ US-EU trade deal announced
✅ Weak US and Euro PMIs
✅ Consolidation in precious metals
✅ Rising Japanese yields
✅ Gold remains stuck in range
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – India Industrial Production, Dallas Fed Manufacturing
📅 Tuesday – Spain GDP, ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, US house prices, JOLTS, CB Consumer Confidence
📅 Wednesday – US GDP, European GDP, ADP Employment
📅 Thursday – US PCE, European inflation, BoJ decision, China NBS Manufacturing PMI
📅 Friday – NFPs, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Spain and Italy HCOB PMI, EA inflation, ISM manufacturing PMI
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 28th of July, 2025 at 10:30AM BST.
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights
Follow us:
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this week’s episode of the Flux News Show, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans, and Mita Chaturvedi break down why middle distillates like diesel are defying the trend and driving oil markets.
They dive deep into the distillates rally, unpacking how chronically low stocks, disjointed refining activity, and CTA-led momentum flipped what looked like a stop-out into a full-blown bull run.
Meanwhile, soaring diesel-led margins and rare summer tightness in the physical market are reshaping the narrative on cracks and spreads — and few saw it coming.
The team also touches on new hedge fund launches, the shifting macro backdrop around US–EU trade tensions, and the latest on the Murban pricing saga, as PLATTS faces scrutiny over a controversial methodology tweak.
In the Crystal Ball, Greg, Harry, and Mita debate whether the distillate tightness is here to stay - and what it means for Brent, refinery utilization, and product flows heading into peak demand season.
📲 Make the move to Flux:
As mentioned in the show, our more technical content will be moving to Flux.live. Learn more and sign up - or start with a free trial: https://www.flux.live/
📈 Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 22nd July, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Todd & Edward Hayden-Briffett unpack a high-stakes week in global markets; where rising bond yields, China’s deepening economic slump, and Trump’s provocative economic rhetoric have stirred volatility across assets. As fears of stagflation hit the UK, and the tech rally pushes into bubble territory, markets are bracing for unpredictable shifts ahead.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉 Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key highlights include:
✅ US 30-year bond yield breaks above 5% amid inflation and debt concerns
✅ Trump threatens to fire Powell, push rates to 1%, and open retirement markets to crypto
✅ China’s economic woes deepen- deflation worsens, retail sales fall, property slumps
✅ UK inflation jumps to 3.6% while unemployment ticks up- BOE stagflation risk rises
✅ Nvidia hits fresh highs; is AI becoming a bubble?
✅ Crypto surges-Dogecoin passes $40bn, gold eyes $3,450
✅ Hedge funds short the Russell 2000 at the most aggressive pace since 2022
✅ Lucid Motors rallies +50% on Uber’s $300M robotaxi partnership
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – Canadian PPI
📅 Tuesday – Powell speech
📅 Wednesday – US mortgage applications & new home sales
📅 Thursday – ECB rate decision, US jobless claims, Flash PMIs (Australia, Germany, France, UK & US)
📅 Friday – UK retail sales, German IFO business conditions
🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 21st of July, 2025 at 09:45AM BST.
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights
Follow us:
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this week’s episode of the Flux News Show, Harry Campion-Evans steps in for Group CEO Greg Newman and joins Harinder Sandhu and Vincent Wu to dissect the shifting tides in global oil markets.
The team kicks off with a bullish shift in market fundamentals, driven by strong open interest in Brent options, rising refinery margins, and the impact of U.S. sanctions rhetoric. They then dig into the distillate rally, where July–August gas oil spreads hit their highest levels since the Russian invasion. With inventory draws in the U.S. and Europe, and hedge funds piling into long positions, gas oil is shaping up to be the star of Q3.
On the flip side, the fuel oil market saw a dramatic sell-off, as supply flooded into Singapore, overwhelming demand and triggering a steep decline in cracks and spreads — a major blow for traders who had been long throughout the summer.
The team also unpacks China’s aggressive crude buying, highlighting record Saudi allocations and ramping refinery run rates, which could support prices through the second half of the year.
Finally, they take on Trump’s renewed tariff threats, analysing whether they hold weight or are being shrugged off by increasingly sceptical markets.
In the Crystal Ball segment, the Harry, Harinder and Vincent give their outlook on Brent futures, product cracks, and seasonal demand patterns, with some heated debate along the way.
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th July, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the latest macro crosscurrents dominating global markets—from record-breaking equity rallies to deepening economic strains in China and the U.S., and a major resurgence in precious metals and crypto. As global trade tensions escalate and monetary policy remains uncertain, markets are grappling with mixed signals and elevated volatility.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key highlights include:
✅ Trump hits EU & Mexico with new 30% tariffs
✅ China's deflation worsens, but exports hit records
✅ Bitcoin, Silver & Copper surge as "fast money" rotates into metals
✅ Amazon Prime Day sales plunge 41%
✅ Goldman’s High-Beta Momentum Basket suffers worst drop since Feb 2023
✅ Nvidia hits $4T market cap; valuation risks mount
✅ and more!
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – US CPI, China house price index, China GDP & retail sales, German ZEW
📅 Wednesday – US PPI, UK inflation & retail sales
📅 Thursday – US retail sales, Australian & UK employment
📅 Friday – US Michigan consumer sentiment, Japanese inflation
This episode was recorded on Monday, the 14th of July, 2025 at 11:00AM BST.
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
Follow us:
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this of Trading Corner, hosts Manny and James dissect the extraordinary strength in the gasoil market and unravel the mechanics behind dislocations across the barrel. From front spreads hitting unprecedented highs to refinery margins soaring amid tight diesel supplies, Manny and James explore why the usual summer seasonality is failing to materialise.
They examine the knock-on effects on crude, particularly the puzzling weakness in prompt physical markets despite bullish futures curves and the implications for refinery utilization and freight. As the conversation evolves, they assess regional dynamics, from European strength to softer Eastern margins, and discuss how arbitrage and freight might balance the global flows.
Trade Ideas Discussed:
-
Manny - Bearish WTI Brent Position & Short Front Flys
-
James - Long Dec 26 EBOB Cracks
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is back alongside Research Associate Martha Dowding and Research Analyst Will Cunliffe to break down the oil market’s summer reset following the “12-day war” shock. With volumes and conviction draining out of the system, the team explores whether the return to calm signals a true inflexion point - or just the eye of the storm.
This week’s discussion dives into:
• OPEC’s latest move: why a larger-than-expected paper unwind didn’t shake the market - and what the Saudi OSP hike is really signalling
• China’s quiet buying spree, refinery margins at record highs, and what they reveal about demand
• Europe’s extreme weather: how heatwaves are throttling refinery output and driving distillate cracks skyward
• Macro mayhem: the U.S. dollar's strange new correlation with oil, Trump’s tariff chaos, and signs of a bearish shift in U.S. economic leadership
• Gasoline’s fade: why cracks are slipping even in peak summer, and whether the distillate rally is now overcooked
• UK pump prices are rising again - what the forward curve tells us about what you’ll pay next
• The Gold Rush and the Widowmaker: who made money in the Brent time spreads, and who got burned in the gasoline-gas oil spread unwind
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 1st July, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Join James Brodie, James Todd, and Will Cunliffe for a brand new episode of Macro Mondays, as they unpack another volatile week in global markets.
This episode was recorded at 11am BST on Monday, the 7th of July, 2025.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key topics today:
✅ S&P500 makes new ATH as big beautiful bill passes in US
✅ US employment data beats expectations, but private payroll appear weak
✅ Bond markets remain rangebound
✅ Brent is showing no clear trend, despite bearish calls
✅ What’s driving markets this week?
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday - RBA rate decision, US consumer credit
📅 Wednesday - RBNZ rate decision, Chinese inflation rate, US mortgage applications, Fed FOMC minutes
📅 Thursday - BOK rate decision, US jobless claims
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
Follow us:
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup
MacroMonday #MarketUpdate #SP500 #USJobsReport #BigBeautifulBill #Gold #Bitcoin #TechStocks #Inflation #CentralBanks #BondMarket #AIStocks #AppleStock #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #inflation #recession #Tariffs #GlobalTrade #Commodities #economicdata #MarketInsight #trumptariffs #brent #brentcrude #investing #stockmarket #wallstreet #oilandgas #brentprice #hedgefunds #bonds #teslastock #crypto
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of The Officials, we welcome a new voice to the show—Spyridon Kokas, the latest addition to the Officials team. Together, Ed and Spyridon dive deep into the imminent release of the Saudi Official Selling Prices (OSPs), expected tomorrow, and examine what recent changes in the Dubai physical market structure might mean for the August figures.
They explore:
• The rise in Dubai physical premiums due to geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel-Iran conflict.
• Why June trading is critical to forecasting the August OSP.
• The Saudi strategy of discretionary OSP adjustments and what that implies for this month’s pricing.
• The broader OPEC+ narrative of market stability, including the ongoing unwind of voluntary production cuts.
• Summer burn factors and domestic demand dynamics in Saudi Arabia.
• Export behaviour amid Strait of Hormuz security concerns and their implications for crude pricing signals.
Expect sharp insights, data-backed expectations (hint: a 65–70 cent hike is on the table), and a continued theme of pricing discipline from Riyadh.
Don't miss our reports and real-time commentary on Twitter following the release.
🔗 Stay connected: Read our daily reports on Flux.live: https://flux.live/
Follow us on Twitter - @OnyxOfficials: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials
Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates @ Jorge Montepeque:
ttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
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X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and "Geek in the Seat" Harinder Sandhu to unpack the aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict and its whiplash effect on global oil markets. With volatility collapsing, producer hedging accelerating, and refiners raking in profits, they look beneath the headlines to understand who actually came out on top - and why the bearish consensus might be getting ahead of itself.
This week’s discussion dives into:
• The volatility unwind: how trade houses crushed overpriced options after the ceasefire
• Why flat price ignored the news flow - and what Brent spreads reveal about true sentiment
• The return of Iranian barrels, Trump’s oil tweets, and what they mean for 2025 balances
• OPEC’s next move: paper unwind or physical flood? And why the Saudis are playing it slow
• CTA, hedge fund, and retail whiplash: who faded the spike, and who got caught?
• Crack spreads remain sky-high, even as UK refineries shut down. What's really going on here?
• And more!
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 1st July, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the most volatile macro crosscurrents in markets as U.S. equities push to fresh all-time highs and the dollar resumes its downtrend.
Key highlights include:
• U.S. consumer cracks widening
• Housing on the brink
• Fed doves emerge
• Inflation expectations collapse
• Employment weakness deepens
• Equities defy fundamentals
• Gold tests key support
• Dollar dives
• Hedge funds retreat: CTAs flip net short, and Andurand's flagship fund drops another 12.7%
• BOE turns dovish
• Tesla soars & Nvidia at new highs
Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – US ISM manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell speaks, JOLTS job openings, EZ PMIs & CPI
📅 Wednesday – Australian retail sales, US mortgage applications, ADP payrolls
📅 Thursday – US non-farm payrolls, ISM services PMI, jobless claims
📅 Friday – US holiday
This episode was recorded on Monday, the 30th of June, 2025 at 10.30AM BST.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates: Onyx Institute LinkedIn
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉 Follow Onyx Institute: LinkedIn
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This week on The Officials, Will and Ed unpack one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market memory, as geopolitical theatre and contractual chaos collide.
With crude prices swinging wildly and trust in Middle Eastern supply chains under fire, they dive into:
- The aggressive $10+ sell-off after Iran’s retaliatory strikes
- Why the market rallied first - then collapsed
- What the “Trump call” and “China put” mean for price floors
- How a 20% under-delivery from ADNOC has shaken physical markets
- Why traders are facing $10–12 million losses on hedged cargoes
- The mechanics of operational tolerance—and how ADNOC may have broken them
- Growing fear that IFAD’s credibility is at risk (some say it’s “dead”)
- What this means for Murban futures and the broader pricing structure
Will and Ed also explore whether this was just a one-off allocation miss - or something more serious that could fracture trust in the Gulf’s benchmark systems.
🔗 Stay connected:
Read our daily reports on Flux.live: https://flux.live/
Follow us on Twitter - @OnyxOfficials: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials
Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates @ Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
Follow us:
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Trading Corner | Crude Oil Chaos, Brent Structure, and Summer Market Outlook
Welcome back to Trading Corner! In this episode, Manny and James dive into one of the most volatile two-week stretches in recent crude oil markets. From surprise short-covering rallies to aggressive sell-offs, they unpack the psychology and positioning behind the recent price swings — and what they reveal about market sentiment.
Topics covered:
- The dramatic market reaction around Friday the 13th
- Crude oil structure analysis: flatprice, spreads, and contango
- Geopolitical risk: Iran & the Strait of Hormuz threat
- CTA flows and positioning trends
- Brent vs. WTI dynamics and TI-Brent outlook
- Refinery margins and crack spread behaviour
- Distillate vs. gasoline: “Widowmaker” trades
- Deferred contracts and structural shorts
With deep insights from live desk experience, this episode covers both macro and micro market forces, real-time trader psychology, and how institutions are positioning into the summer months.
Trade Ideas Discussed:
- Short Sep/Oct v Oct/Nov Brent
- Short Dec/Jun/Dec Brent
- Short WTI-Brent
- Long Dec 26 EBOB
CrudeOil #Brent #OilTrading #CommodityMarkets #RefineryMargins #TradingStrategy #EnergyMarkets #CTA #Geopolitics #StraitsOfHormuz #TradingCorner
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque and Research Associate Vincent Wu to unpack a volatile week in oil markets following missile exchanges between Israel and Iran - exacerbated by the U.S. stepping in. With a dramatic rally in options and front-end time spreads giving way to an even sharper collapse, the team dissects what actually drove the price action—and what happens next.
This week’s discussion dives into:
• Why options (not flat price) drove the rally: open interest, hedging panic, and call buying hysteria
• The Strait of Hormuz closure fear trade; how serious is the risk of strait closure?
• The Polymarket signal, GPS jamming rumours, and real-time tanker trolling
• How ADNOC’s tactics sparked chaos in the physical market - and put the Murban benchmark at risk
• CTAs, hedge funds, and retail: who made money, and who got smoked?
• Refinery margins explode again: who hedged at the top and what it means for supply
• Plus: the return of OPEC to the spotlight - and why Trump’s oil tweets may matter more than ever
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 24th June, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Join James Brodie & Will Cunliffe for a brand new episode of Macro Mondays, as they unpack another volatile week in global markets.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key topics today:
✅ US strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities
✅ US data continues to weaken
✅ Fed forecasts stagflation
✅ ZIRP is back in Switzerland
✅ EU distancing themselves from China
✅ S&P on cusp of a break lower
Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – EZ, UK, US flash PMIs
📅 Tuesday – German IFO business confidence, Canadian CPI
📅 Wednesday – US mortgage applications & new home sales
📅 Thursday – US jobless claims
📅 Friday - Japan unemployment & retail sales, US PCE price index, UMich consumer confidence
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
This episode was recorded at 11am BST on Monday, the 23rd of June, 2025.
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, "Geek in the Seat" Research Associate Martha Dowding, Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque, and Research Associate Will Cunliffe from The Officials. With crude prices spiking and time spreads surging after geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran, the team explores whether this marks a structural shift or a short-lived frenzy.
Is the oil market bracing for sustained turmoil, or is the smart money already fading the move?
This week’s discussion dives into:
• Explosive rallies in Brent time spreads and front-month volatility: geopolitical panic or justified repricing?
• Illiquid options markets, call seller pain, and how market makers got caught
• Why retail investors are piling in—and why that may signal a top
• The Strait of Hormuz dilemma: real flow threats vs. diplomatic suicide
• Freight premiums, Dubai vs Brent pricing, and the resilience of global oil logistics
• Pump prices and retail backlash: UK wholesale dynamics, delayed pass-throughs, and what end-users can actually do
• Plus: refinery margins hit new highs, and which cracks and differentials traders are watching most closely for the next big move
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 17th June, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this explosive episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the most volatile week in global markets this year.
Key highlights include:
- Middle East tensions flare: The Israel-Iran conflict escalates, sending crude oil surging and gold prices spiking to the critical $3435 resistance level.
- U.S. inflation cools unexpectedly: CPI and PPI data come in well below consensus, while initial jobless claims rise, deepening recession fears.
- UK payroll shock: Employment falls sharply post-budget, with unemployment now at 4.6%—the highest since 2021.
- China data mixed: Consumer prices slip into deflation, while retail sales jump 6.4% amid government stimulus.
- Fund managers turn bearish: Paul Tudor Jones, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Jamie Dimon issue stark macro warnings—drawing parallels to 2007 and 1999.
- Stocks under pressure: U.S. equities break key support levels; insider selling hits record highs; tech valuations remain stretched.
- Dollar sinks to 3-year lows: FX markets react sharply, with EURUSD continuing its uptrend and USDJPY stuck in a tight range.
- Bitcoin stalls: Price caught between $100K support and $112K resistance as volatility looms.
Plus: Central bank bonanza ahead—FOMC, BOE, BOJ, and SNB decisions in focus this week.
Tune in for actionable macro insights, technical breakdowns, and positioning analysis from top global fund managers. Don’t miss the Charts of the Week, including Meta’s crucial support test.
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – NY Fed manu survey
📅 Tuesday – SNB rate decision, US retail sales
📅 Wednesday – FOMC policy meeting, jobless claims
📅 Thursday – BOE rate decision. US equities closed
📅 Friday – BOJ rate decision, Philly Fed manu survey
This episode was recorded on Monday, the 16th of June, 2025.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode, Will and Ed from The Officials dive into the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and the latest quota and compliance dynamics shaping oil markets - just days ahead of Saudi Arabia’s anticipated OSP announcement.
What’s Covered:
- Why OPEC’s production cuts remain central to price stability
- The increasing tension between quota compliance and fiscal needs for producers like Iraq and Kazakhstan
- Saudi Arabia’s strategic positioning and growing frustration with non-compliant members
- How market expectations are shifting ahead of the June 5th OPEC meeting
- The likely trajectory of Saudi OSPs amid structural softening in Dubai and late-month pricing dynamics
- The evolving Brent/Dubai differential and what it signals for Atlantic Basin and Middle East grades
- The ripple effects of China’s tariffs on WTI, and the emerging demand from India and Korea
🔗 Stay connected with The Officials:
✅ Read our daily reports on Flux: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
✅ Follow us on Twitter: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials
✅ Follow Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
🔗 Useful links:
👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔗 Follow us:
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of Trading Corner, James and Manny unpack an unusually balanced crude market, where everything should be moving - but isn’t. With WTI defying fundamentals, Brent spreads losing steam, and products drifting post-rally, they dig into:
- Why front-end WTI time spreads are surging above $1
- What Brent-Dubai convergence says about physical flows
- Why the data window and physical diffs are underwhelming despite peak margin season
- The resilience of fuel oil cracks and the tightness still priced in
- A cooling margin environment and what that means for product hedges
- Trading strategies for a sideways market: short July/Aug Dated and exit half of Dec ‘26 gasoline longs
Glossary terms featured this week:
Murban
A light, sweet crude oil produced in Abu Dhabi, known for its high quality and used widely in Asia; a benchmark in the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi market.
Rally
A period of sustained increase in price action.
Margins
The difference between the prices of refined products and crude inputs, weighted by yield, which represents the refinery’s profit (excluding transport and power).
DFL
Dated-to-Frontline. A monthly contract that measures the premium of physical North Sea crude (Dated Brent) to Brent swaps.
Time Spread
A time spread, or ‘calendar spread’, in oil derivatives, is a strategy where a trader simultaneously buys and sells two futures or options contracts for the same oil quantity but with different expiration dates. This strategy aims to profit from the change in the price difference, or spread, between these two contracts over time.
WTI
WTI is a light, sweet crude oil that is produced in the United States. It is the main benchmark for US crude oil.
Crack
Differential between a barrel of product and barrel of crude.
Diffs
Differentials or "diffs" are contracts priced against one another.
Fly
A calendar spread strategy involving three consecutive contract months.
Brent Spreads
A differential of a shorter-term and longer-term Brent futures contract. E.g. the M1/M2 spread is the M1 Brent futures minus the M2 Brent futures contract.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data via Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Oil swaps glossary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 More episodes: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
🔔 Subscribe for regular breakdowns of energy markets, real trades, and edge from the Onyx desk.
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi to decode the hidden signals driving oil markets higher as speculative capital surges back into crude - despite mixed macro sentiment and seasonal demand concerns.
Is this a genuine breakout or another false dawn?
This week’s discussion dives into:
• Brent and WTI futures breaking out: bullish momentum or overextended rally?
• Surge in refining utilisation and margin resilience - how long can it last?
• Why CTAs are backing off shorts and what that means for risk appetite
• The China puzzle: record crude inventories, heavy refinery turnarounds, and what to expect next
• OPEC underproduction, Saudi allocations, and the quiet game of signalling restraint
• Pump prices, U.S. gasoline demand weakness, and why refiners may be overproducing into a glut
• Plus: crack spreads, fuel oil strength, and whether the market is setting up for a Q3 reversal
As mentioned in the episode, our more technical content will be making the move to our Flux platform - which is free with an Onyx Markets account, offers free trials, and offers great value for traders. Learn more & sign up here: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 10th June, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 9th of June, 2025.
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key topics today:
✅ US Employment & ISM data continues weakening
✅ Bond yields hover in 'danger zone' with tsy department buying $10 bio
✅ China stuck in deflation
✅ Hedge funds increase bearish equity bets
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday - UK Employment, Australian consumer confidence
📅 Wednesday – US CPI & Mortgage applications
📅 Thursday - US PPI, Jobless claims, Tesla's Robotaxi launch
📅 Friday – UMich Consumer sentiment & inflation expectations
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Research Associate Vincent Wu and Research Analyst Edward Hayden-Briffett to unpack the mounting pressure across the oil market as physical fundamentals clash with financial positioning.
Refinery margins are cracking, Brent time spreads have surged then stalled, and OPEC’s headline theatre is wearing thin. Are we approaching a tipping point - or just another seesaw in the market?
This episode also covers:
- The Brent market’s $60/bbl floor: real support or short-covering illusion?
- A look into distillate and naphtha weakness - and what it signals for margins
- OPEC’s layered cuts, voluntary compliance issues, and Abu Dhabi’s Murban pivot
- Crack spread compression and what it means for global refinery utilisation
- Hedge fund activity, CTA short positioning, and why funds are sitting out the rally
- Plus: why the physical oil market is finally starting to behave rationally - and what that means for trading the rest of the year.
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 3rd June, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
0:30 Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market
9:14 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
20:50 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
27:26 Hedge Fund Watch:
31:52 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins
38:25 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
43:16 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
54:17 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 2nd of June, 2025.
Research Analyst Will Cunliffe from Onyx Officials joins Direct Trader James Todd as James Brodie is teaching abroad.
Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key topics today:
✅ Trump tariffs turmoil is back
✅ Sovereign yields reverse
✅ Hedge funds bounce back
✅ US housing market is on shaky foundation
✅ We look at how this may play out in the week ahead
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, EA Inflation, JOLTS
📅 Wednesday – Australia GDP, Euro HCOB PMIs, MBA Mortgage Applications, BoC interest rate decision, ISM Services PMI
📅 Thursday - Caixin PMI, Euro HCOB Construction PMIs, ECB interest rate, US Trade
📅 Friday – US NFPs, Euro retail sales, Bank of India interest rate
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
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inflation #recession #YieldCurve #Tariffs #GlobalTrade #USChina #RateCuts #Commodities #economicdata #MarketInsight #trumptariffs #brent #brentcrude #investing #stockmarket #wallstreet #InterestRates #oott #yields #hedgefunds #GlobalMarkets #FinancialNews #MarketUpdate #MarketVolatility #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #oilandgas #brentprice #consumerconfidence #us #usa #useconomy #japaneseeconomy #usd #hedgefunds #housing #housingmarket #realestate #goldmansachs #morganstanley #paultudorjones
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Welcome back to Trading Corner. This week, James and Manny dive headfirst into the wild ride that is the HSFO market and what it means for cracks, margins, and benchmark distortion.
Three trades this week:
James’ Trade Idea:Hold Long Dec '26 EBOB Crack — Deferred gasoline margins still underpriced with summer upside in sight.
Manny’s Trade Ideas:Long June/July DFL Roll — Tight barrels and seasonal strength point to continued structure.Long Q3 DFL — Dubai benchmark pricing is misfiring, but physicals suggest upside still to come.
From refinery complexity choking HSFO supply, to a benchmark blindspot in Dubai, and a product market that’s tightening as the mercury rises, James and Manny unpack the big themes:
- Why high-sulfur fuel oil cracks are breaking records
- The lead/lag dance between fuel and crude pricing
- A deep dive on Dubai’s Murban distortion and why it’s capping benchmark reaction
- When "margin boxes" lie — and how to trade what’s really happening
- The case for long product / short crude reversals as we enter Q3
- Why June vs. July is where the curve gets interesting
Glossary terms featured this week:
Crack
Differential between a barrel of product and crude oil, indicating refinery margin.
Volatility
Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time.
HSFO
Fuel oil with higher sulfur contents - max: 3.5%. Typically used in shipping and power generation.
Margins
The difference between the prices of refined products and crude oil.
Platts
Price Reporting Agency which provides benchmark price assessments in the physical energy markets.
Lead / Lag
The lead-lag relationship in trading describes how one market or asset (the "leader") tends to move ahead of another (the "lagger"), allowing traders to anticipate price movements based on these patterns.
Over brought
“Over brought” refers to a market condition where a trader has purchased more of a commodity than intended or than the market can absorb, increasing downside risk if demand falls short.
Balmo
"Balmo" (Balance of Month) refers to contracts covering the remaining days of the current month, used for short-term supply or hedging once the month is underway.
Dubai (contract)
The Dubai contract is a crude oil benchmark used to price Middle Eastern exports to Asia, reflecting medium sour crude and managed by the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME).
Naphtha
Naphtha is a light, flammable hydrocarbon liquid from petroleum refining, used in gasoline production and widely in industrial and petrochemical processes.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data via Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Oil swaps glossary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 More episodes: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
🔔 Subscribe for weekly breakdowns of energy markets, real trades, and edge from the Onyx desk.
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Sleeping Volatility: Giant Waiting in the Wings?
In this episode, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans and Harinder Sandhu break down the most explosive move in the fuel oil complex in over a decade.
Singapore 380 cracks have surged to triple the 5-year average, with speculative interest hitting record highs. Is this a sustainable bull run—or a dangerously crowded trade?
The Flux News Show also covers:
- The Brent/Dubai spread tightening and its impact on global crude flows
- Saudi Arabia's upcoming OSPs and the psychology behind their softer pricing stance
- Chinese refineries buying behaviour and forward structure flattening
- Singapore fuel oil open interest, profit-taking risks, and signs of a market peak
- Regrade signals and how refiners might play the gasoil-fuel oil spread
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 28th May, 2025.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
0:16 Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market
8:01 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
12:21 Hedge Fund Watch
16:33 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins
28:30 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
34:52 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
44:22 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
52:48 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 27th of May, 2025.
Join James Brodie and James Todd , LIVE 12:30 BST, as they break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next!
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key topics today:
✅ US Under Pressure: 30-year bonds hit 5.15% as fiscal concerns mount.
✅ Japan’s Bond Market Chaos: 40-year yields at a 20-year high, poor JGB auctions, and inflation rising to 3.5%—is Japan the next Greece?
✅ Tariff Shockwaves: Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Europe and 25% on Apple.
✅ Recession Signals?: US Leading Economic Index posts biggest drop since March 2023
✅ Supply Chain Alert: Shanghai–US shipping rates skyrocket 4x in a month
✅ Global Central Bank Moves: RBA cuts rates amidst recession fears; China trims Loan Prime Rates; BoE faces hotter-than-expected inflation.
✅ Europe’s Economic Weakness: Disappointing PMIs, falling PPI in Germany, and soft CPI in France.
✅ Market Trends: S&P stalls, Apple down 25% from highs, Brent struggles below $69, and Bitcoin aims for $112,000.
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Wednesday– France and Germany unemployment, FOMC minutes
📅 Thursday - Jobless claims, pending home sales
📅 Friday – Tokyo CPI, German CPI, US PCE index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights! https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
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Chapters in this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:04 US debt biggest risk to market?
2:50 Japan 40-year yield highest in 20 years
4:05 JGBs tough 3.20% before falling
4:55 US LEI sees largest decline since March 2023
6:20 US 2s/10s curve continues steepening
7:40 China cuts Loan Prime Rate by 10bps
8:33 France May CPI +0.7% YoY (+0.9% last)
10:28 S&P cannot make new highs
12:36 AAPL 25% off highs
15:07 RBA cut 25bp
16:08 UK inflation in April jumped to 3.5% (est. 3.3%)
17:14 Gold trend channel resistance
19:45 Brent struggles below $69
21:58 Gasoline Arb
24:32 Central Bank: OIS pricing for the next 12 months
25:38 Bitcoin trends effortlessly higher
26:39 Key data releases this week
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of The Officials Explain, Will and Ed break down the fascinating world of crude oil grades - and why the market can’t afford to ignore their differences.
From the lightest Malaysian condensates to Venezuela’s goopy Merey 16, they explore how density, sulphur, and even metal content shape both value and logistics.
They unpack:
• The role of API gravity and sulphur content in defining crude grades
• Why yield matters, and how refiners calculate value from gasoline to fuel oil
• How soaring fuel oil cracks are flipping traditional Dubai benchmark pricing
• The mechanics of quality premiums and sulphur escalators in the North Sea
• What refinery setups in Europe, China, and the Gulf of Mexico reveal about global trade flows
This episode is essential viewing for anyone working with or exposed to crude-linked pricing.
All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
Follow us:
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The Domino Has Fallen.
Refinery margins — the last bullish stronghold — are collapsing. This isn't just a signal; it's confirmation that the market is finally pricing in the oversupply reality that’s been building for months.
Goldman Sachs. The IEA. Every serious analyst has seen this coming — and now it’s here. The second half of the year marks a new regime: the geopolitical premium is dead, supply routes are open, and the market is done licking its wounds from last year’s chaos. Volatility has faded. Direction is back. The traders who see this shift are already positioning for what’s next: the great normalisation.
In this episode of Flux News, the team break down how this moment changes everything — and where the money moves now. They also discuss:
- The collapse in refinery margins and what it signals
- How the Brent/Dubai spread is spelling out a physical market reset
- The surge in CTA and money manager positioning—and why it might be too late
- Headline fatigue, flat volatility, and why everyone’s ignoring Iran… for now
- Why Ryanair’s recent hedging could be a top signal for distillates
- The crack collapse across gasoil, naphtha, and fuel oil
- A breakdown of the Great Normalisation—and why directional trades are finally back on the menu
Goldman Sachs saw this coming. The IEA flagged it. Now it’s here: Geopolitical premium? Dead. Supply? Loose. Demand? Meh. The second half of the year is a new regime.
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.
Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 20th May, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
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X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:06 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market
7:53 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
14:19 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
19:41 Hedge Fund Watch
31:29 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins
45:01 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
48:03 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
52:04 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters
58:36 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis
CFDs and spread bets
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 19th of May, 2025.
Research Analyst Will Cunliffe from Onyx Officials joins Direct Trader James Todd as James Brodie is teaching in Singapore.
Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key topics today:
✅ Risk sentiment stages a comeback
✅ US soft data and hard data divergence
✅ OIS pricing fewer Fed cuts
✅ Gold breaks key support
✅ We look at how this may play out in the week ahead
📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – Germany PPI, Canada inflation
📅 Wednesday – Japan balance of trade, UK inflation
📅 Thursday - India HSBC PMIs, Japan Jibun Bank PMIs, Euro HCOB Flash PMIs, Germany IFO surveys, ECB meetings, US existing home sales
📅 Friday – UK retail sales, US new home sales, US building permits.
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/#macromondays
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of The Officials Explain, Ed and Will dive into the sharp shift in the North Sea physical market and what it means for CFD structure.
With dated Brent softening fast and CFD spreads flipping into contango, the team lays out why this matters far beyond just the North Sea.
They unpack:
- The collapse in physical differentials—and what Trafigura’s exit reveals
- Why Midland and Forties flows are flooding the window
- The impact of Grangemouth's closure and rising deliverable barrels
- What a weakening front-end CFD curve signals for refiners and hedgers
- How global dynamics—from Murban gluts to Iranian barrels—are reshaping spreads
This episode is a must-watch for anyone trading or managing exposure to Brent-linked pricing.
All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: The Officials (@OnyxOfficials) / X
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ }
Welcome back to Trading Corner, where the market’s on fire and the cracks are even hotter.
This week, Manny and James dissect a juicy dislocation between crude spreads and product strength—and roll out three sharp trade ideas:
Manny's Trade Ideas:
June/July Dated Brent – seeing upside as product tightness bites
Long Q3 Dated Dubai – early shift in Brent/Dubai positioning could extend
James' Trade Idea:
Holding Dec ‘26 EBOB Crack – deferred gasoline margins still look underpriced despite recent rally
From refinery margins screaming bullish, to physical barrels disappearing in the East, and the return of Brent/Dubai upside flow, this is the setup before summer truly kicks in. Manny and James unpack:
High-sulphur fuel oil strength & air con seasonality
Repsol's surprise crude dump and Spain’s refinery outages
Product-crude disconnect and the case for margin compression trades
Why now might be the time to buy crude relative to product—but only if you know where
If you're trading cracks, curves, or calendar spreads, this episode delivers the real context behind price moves. Skip the noise. Play the dislocations.
Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning.
Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ }
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get industry-grade data via Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 Oil swaps glossary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
👉 More episodes: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
🔔 Subscribe for weekly breakdowns of energy markets, real trades, and edge from the Onyx desk.
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Mita Chaturvedi, analyse the past week in the oil market.
Greg, Harry, and Mita break down the shifting dynamics in crude markets following the latest OPEC output announcements and Saudi crude allocations. They examine how sentiment flipped from bearish to cautiously bullish, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical risks and physical oil fundamentals - including refinery margins and regional supply signals.
The team take a detailed look at the 25-delta risk reversal, implications of volatility normalisation, and what the narrowing put-call skew is telling us about trader positioning. They also cover why hedge fund flows are subdued, how Brent/Dubai spreads are reacting to supply concerns, and the recent rally in Singapore VLSFO time spreads. The Officials also call in to weigh in on Saudi allocations, spot markets, and the North Sea.
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.
Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 13th May, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:25 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market
8:51 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
20:53 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
29:26 Hedge Fund Watch
35:16 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
47:55 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses
56:37 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters
1:03:23 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 12th of May, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
👉Follow Onyx Institute on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
Key topics today:
✅ Key market data, charts & risk
✅Tariff de-escalation today
✅ Gold plummets while the dollar surges
✅Equities break key resistance levels
✅ Brent jumps on tariff headlines
📊 HUGE data week ahead! Major data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – US CPI, Australian & German consumer confidence, UK employment
📅 Wednesday – German inflation
📅 Thursday– US PPI, retail sales, Philly Fed, Fed Chair Powell speaks, Australian employment, UK IP, French inflation
📅 Friday – Japan GDP, Michigan Consumer confidence
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/#macromondays
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Vincent Wu, analyse the past week in the oil market.
Greg, Harry, and Vincent break down the latest developments from OPEC+, analyse the unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories, and explain how macroeconomic indicators like U.S. inflation and China’s economic stimulus are moving prices. They also cover refinery maintenance, seasonal demand in approach to summer driving season, Brent forecasts, and more.
Will Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett from The Officials call in to discuss recent movements in Brent/Dubai and a OPEC+'s (potential) price war. Whether you're tracking Brent and WTI prices or watching for the next Fed move, this episode offers actionable insights, trade ideas, and data-backed forecasts for navigating the volatility in energy markets.
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.
Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 7th May, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Margins are soaring — but crude oil prices are drifting lower. In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny Newman, Partner and Head of Desk, and James Anderson, Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, return to unpack this unexpected divergence in the market.
They dive into the strength in diesel and gasoline cracks, why crude demand remains muted despite strong refining economics, and how unconfirmed OPEC production rumors are influencing sentiment. The episode also explores positioning opportunities — including long-dated gasoline cracks, Brent/Dubai spread strategies, and Q3 crude risk setups.
In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Martha Dowding, analyse the past week in the oil market.
Greg, Harry and Martha unpack the long-term implications of OPEC’s latest production cuts and the escalating tug-of-war between supply control and market stability. They discuss how OPEC's coordinated actions - particularly from key players like Saudi Arabia and Russia - are expected to fuel a 5-year surge in oil market volatility, reshaping trading strategies across the globe. They also analyse the role of U.S. shale producers, shifting demand patterns in Asia, and how geopolitical friction—especially in the Middle East—is amplifying uncertainty in global oil flows.
They also analyse how institutional investors, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds are positioning themselves in this turbulent environment, and what it means for oil futures, energy stocks, and commodity ETFs. Whether you're trading WTI or Brent, or just trying to understand how oil price swings affect inflation and your portfolio, this episode delivers critical insight into the mechanics behind the world’s most watched commodity market.
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.
Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th April, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
fueloil #OilTrading #BrentCrude #EnergyMarkets #Commodities #FluxNews #CrudeOil #MarketVolatility #OilPrices #EnergyTrading #Commodities #MacroEconomics #GlobalMarkets #OPEC #TradingStrategy #HedgeFunds #Gasoline #Tariffs #recession #TrumpTariffs #Energy #financialanalysis
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: https://onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses
👉 Contact us about learning & development: Email OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Daily updates on Onyx Institute LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 28th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
Key topics today:
✅ Key market data, charts & risk
✅ Equities rally on softer tariff rhetoric
✅ Gold falls as the US dollar recovers
✅ Global manufacturing continues falling
✅ U.S. Consumer confidence at record lows
📊 HUGE data week ahead! Major data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – U.S. consumer confidence, JOLTS data, house price index
📅 Wednesday - China PMI, EZ CPI & GDP, Aussie CPI, U.S. Q1 GDP, PCE prices, ADP, Canadian GDP
📅 Thursday – BOJ rate decision, ISM manufacturing
📅 Friday – U.S. employment data
🗓️ 25% S&P500 companies report earnings this week
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Are Hedge Funds Missing the Oil Market Rally? | Flux News Oil Markets Deep Dive – April 2025
In this episode of Flux News, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion and Geek in the Seat, Harinder Sandhu break down why the physical crude oil market is surging while hedge funds and CTAs remain under-positioned—and potentially on the wrong side of the trade.
Our hosts unpack the implications of U.S.-Iran negotiations, China's quiet crude-buying spree, and refinery margins that continue to signal strength. Whether you're trading Brent, WTI, or niche time spreads, we’ve got you covered with the essential macro and micro catalysts moving oil prices today.
In our new segment, Hedge Fund Watch, Greg, Harry and Harinder discuss RBOB vs. Heating Oil and explain how hedge funds and trade houses are playing both sides of the barrel. Our new segment offers insight into managed money flows and what they mean for price direction. Whether you're learning or trading, this is a must-watch for real market edge.
Want to trade?
Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.
Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th April, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and guest analyst (Geek in the Seat) to dissect the unprecedented volatility shaking global markets. The team breaks down how the oil market is reacting to headline volatility around the US-China trade war, OPEC policy shifts and rising talks between the US and Iran. They also discuss support in the physical oil market despite the macro uncertainty and discuss recent shifts in refinery margins, Brent time differentials and the Brent/Dubai differential.
This episode is packed with actionable trade setups, including a breakdown of Q4 Brent/Dubai, naphtha crack trades, and insights into the high-sulfur fuel oil rally. They break down complex structures like Dated Brent and condensate-linked contracts in plain language, so even if you're new to energy markets, you'll walk away with real-world strategies to explore and a better understanding of what really drives price in this space.
Key topics include Brent spreads and the physical market's dislocation to global macro headlines, the Iranian nuclear deal, the rally in high-sulphur fuel oil, and a look into US and European gasoline contracts ahead of summertime demand.
🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.
Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 15th April, 2025.
👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/
👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
0:31 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market
3:20 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
21:35 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
30:45 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
43:20 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Tra
46:26 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters
52:36 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode, the Trading Corner team delves into the recent turbulence in the oil markets, examining the significant $10 sell-off in crude prices and its implications across various asset classes. The discussion highlights the unexpected outperformance of dated Brent relative to futures and spreads, and the resilience observed in specific contracts despite widespread market liquidation.
Key topics include:
- The dynamics of flat price movements and the impact of mass liquidation events.
- Strategies involving long flies and positioning at the front of the curve.
- Seasonal demand factors influencing May cargoes in Europe and Asia.
- Insights into middle distillates, with a focus on gas oil and heating oil cracks.
- The role of swaps and price action in current market conditions.
- The influence of summer travel demand on jet fuel markets.
- Analysis of margins and the performance of light ends, particularly EBOB.
The episode also features trade ideas, including a bullish outlook on Q3 EBOB cracks and considerations for heating oil cracks in deferred periods. You can gain valuable perspectives on navigating the complexities of the oil derivatives market during periods of volatility.
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 14th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
Please note, there will be no new episode of Macro Mondays next week due to the UK Bank Holiday. However, there will be a macro market news summary daily on the Onyx Institute LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyxinstitute/
👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
🔥 Key topics today:
✅ Markets continue to grapple with Trump's on/off tariff policy
✅ US Capital flight, longer treasury's worst week since at 1989
✅ OIS pricing increasing Fed cuts
✅ Gold hits repeated all time high
✅ How will this play out for the week ahead?
📊 Major data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – India WPI Inflation, Euro Area Industrial Production, India Balance of Trade
📅 Wednesday - China GDP, Retail Sales, Industrial Production. US Retail sales, mortgage applications, industrial production and manufacturing production.
📅 Thursday – ECB Interest Rate Decision, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims
📅 Friday – Japan inflation
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this action-packed episode of Flux News, Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, is joined by James Todd from the Direct Trading team and guest analyst (and Geek in the Seat) Harinder Sandhu to dissect the unprecedented volatility shaking global markets.
The Flux News team dives into the explosive movements in oil prices, with Brent futures plummeting below $64/bbl, driven by unexpected tariff announcements, OPEC headlines, and shifting macroeconomic sentiment. They explore the ripple effects across asset classes, from equities to natural gas, and discuss the role of herd mentality in amplifying market reactions.
Key topics include the resurgence of discretionary hedge funds, the impact of CTA-driven momentum trading, and how traders are navigating these turbulent times.
Today’s episode unpacks how geopolitical moves—like Trump's aggressive tariff policies—are reshaping energy markets and fuelling recession fears. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just fascinated by market dynamics, this episode offers valuable insights into trading strategies amid chaos and opportunity as well as Trade ideas and crystal ball predictions for the week ahead.
Tune in for an engaging breakdown of market trends and actionable takeaways for navigating today’s high stakes trading environment!
Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 7th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
🔥 Key topics today:
✅ Trump's extreme tariffs wreak havoc to markets
✅ Asian equities suffer biggest 1-day losses since financial crisis
✅ Brent falls over 15% in 4 days
✅ Gold also falls as funds are forced to liquidate even profitable position
📊 Major data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – Australian consumer & business confidence
📅 Wednesday - US mortgage applications & Fed minutes
📅 Thursday – US CPI & Chinese inflation data
📅 Friday – US PPI & UMich consumer sentiment, UK ind prod
🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction & key topics
1:40 US equity Friday volume highest of all time
5:15 Tariffs: What's next?
6:58 Nasdaq breaks key support levels
7:25 S&P 500 enters bear market
8:01 Everyone expects U.S. equities to fall
10:19 A similar breakdown in the correlation
12:31 US 2-year breaks 3.50% support
13:27 US 10-year breaks 4.10% support
14:00 2s 10s curve steepening
14:23 USDJPY ‘risk-off’ selling
19:53 Very weak US ISM data
21:10 Mixed US jobs data
22:10 US bankruptcies rising even before tariffs
24:06 Credit spreads breaking higher
24:30 German CPI below expectations
25:15 German business confidence rises
26:00 European stocks off
29:49 GBPJPY breaks key support
30:21 Brent breaks key $69 level
34:09 Copper sharply lower
34:47 Gold should rise on mkt concerns
36:45 Bitcoin falls hard over weekend
37:55 Central Bank OIS pricing for the next 12 months
38:55 Key data releases this week & outro
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this second episode of Europe, Power & Gas, Mirko Ivanda, Co-Head of Power & Gas at Onyx, sits down with Dan Cordell of Human Capital Group to explore the human side of energy trading—who succeeds, why they do, and how talent is built and broken in today's volatile markets.
From the backstory of Onyx’s power & gas expansion to hiring red flags, leadership gaps, and mental resilience, this is a straight-talking deep dive into how people, not just policy, are shaping the future of European energy.
Filmed in our Zug, Switzerland media office.
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
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EnergyMarkets #EuropePowerGas #OilAndGas #EnergyCrisis #MarketVolatility #Geopolitics #Trading #NaturalGas #CarbonMarkets #Electricity #Commodities #GlobalEnergy
Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
Industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
Welcome back to Trading Corner! This week, Manny and James dive into key market movements in crude oil and product spreads. They discuss their successful contrarian trade call on DFL, driven by short covering and seasonal demand shifts. They highlight the strength in crude - particularly WTI - as the market navigates refinery turnarounds and shifting trade flows. Looking ahead, Manny and James see potential upside in WTI spreads, while product markets remain relatively quiet, with gasoline showing seasonal strength but lacking compelling trades. Tune in for expert insights and their trade idea!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.
Our latest show, the Flux News podcast is here. Hosted by Greg Newman, Group CEO, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Vincent Wu from Onyx Research, the show offers a comprehensive overview and discussion of the current oil market dynamics and trading strategies from the perspective of experienced industry professionals. Please note, this episode was filmed at 8:30am BST on 1st April, 2025.
They analyse the Brent-Dubai spread, the strength in gasoline cracks, and the volatility in the dated Brent market. Greg, Harry and Vincent also explore potential trade ideas, such as going long on the Brent-Dubai spread and the VLSFO crack.
The episode highlights the importance of understanding physical market dynamics, technical analysis, and managing risk when trading in the oil markets.
Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
0:55 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market
4:40 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
18:56 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
27:52 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trap
42:28 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters
46:52 Onyx Beta: The Broad Market Outlook
59:58 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 31st of March, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what’s coming next! 🔥
Key topics today:
✅ Market panic – Credit spreads surging & CDSs ripping higher
✅ Stock sell-off – Equities breaking key support levels
✅ Gold hits record highs – Is it too late to buy?
✅ Trump’s tariff shock – Global trade war risks escalating
✅ Liberation Day & US payrolls – Critical catalysts ahead
📊 Major data releases this week:
📅 Tuesday – Japanese Tankan, EZ Inflation, US ISM Manufacturing PMI & JOLTS
📅 Wednesday – US Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Report
📅 Thursday – China Caixin PMI, US ISM Services PMI, Jobless Claims
📅 Friday – US & Canada Payrolls 🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!
👉 Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses
👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Our latest show, the Flux News podcast is here. Hosted by Greg Newman, Group CEO, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Martha Dowding from Onyx Research, the show offers a comprehensive overview and discussion of the current oil market dynamics and trading strategies from the perspective of experienced industry professionals.
The show is broken down into multiple segments, so please feel free to skip to the segment you like.
Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market
Right now, the market is warming up, with a sharp reversal of speculative short positions in Brent & WTI as CTAs hit their limits. Bullish momentum is building in crude and gasoline contracts, driving a steady market advance. Don’t miss out—tap in for real-time insights, expert takes, and the hottest trends shaping the market!
Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?
Right now, traders are locked in on Middle Eastern crude and the latest OPEC headlines—that’s where the herd is moving…While sanctions and geopolitical tensions, like the Israel-Gaza conflict, are in the mix, it's the OPEC narrative and supply dynamics that are truly shaping market sentiment. Stay ahead of the pack with our deep dives into what’s really moving traders!
Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!
The biggest money-maker in the oil markets? Brent vs. Dubai differential! A sharp, predictable downward move—driven by OPEC headlines and Iran/Venezuela sanctions—set up a prime opportunity for trade houses and speculators to cash in. While Naphtha shorts in the MOPJ Crack also paid off, Brent-Dubai was the real jackpot. Stay locked in for the next big setup!
Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trap
The 380 fuel oil crack caught traders off guard with a violent, unexpected rally that surged deep into positive territory. What seemed like a clear short turned into a painful squeeze, leaving many in the red. This shock move blindsided the market and proved once again why risk management is everything. Stay sharp—don’t get caught in the next Widow Maker.
Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters
Martha broke down the intricacies of Onyx’s proprietary data, offering a closer look at Naphtha’s setup going forward. From technical patterns and positioning to the pricing window backdrop, she mapped out the key signals traders need to watch. If you’re looking for an edge in the market, this is where you’ll find it.
Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis
This segment focuses on where the market is heading next, using a mix of fundamental insights and proprietary research to generate trade ideas. It’s broken down into three key sub-segments:
Onyx Beta – The Broad Market Outlook
This is where the hosts lay out their big-picture views on key oil market benchmarks, looking at:
- Brent crude – directional bias and price action expectations.
- Front Brent timespread – analyzing the structure of the curve and potential moves in backwardation or contango.
- EBOB Crack – assessing the gasoline crack spread in Europe and its implications.
- Low Sulfur Fuel Crack in Asia – examining refining margins and demand signals for LSFO in the Asian market.
Harry & Greg’s Trade of the Week
To wrap up, Harry and Greg selected their favorite trade idea based on the discussion throughout the show. This time, they landed on the DFL (Dated Brent vs. Brent differential) as the best way to position for spot physical crude strength, reflecting tightness in the physical oil market versus the futures market.
Chapters in this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:47 Tem
Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses
Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 24th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key highlights this week:
- A dovish Fed sees risk sentiment rally
- LEI & US CEO business confidence both fall sharply
- Gold uptrend stalls, while Brent sits on key $69 support
- April 2nd tariff deadline looms
Key data releases this week:
- Monday – EZ, UK & US flash PMIs
- Tuesday – German IFO, US home sales & consumer confidence
- Wednesday – Australian CPI, UK CPI
- Thursday – Japan Tokyo CPI, US jobless claims, pending home sales
- Friday – UK retail sales, US Umich sentiment, Core PCE deflator
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
Industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
Welcome back to Trading Corner! This week, Manny and James dive into the latest gasoline market shake-up, discussing the aggressive liquidation and stop-outs that caught many by surprise. They analyse the impact of weak US stats, positioning imbalances, and shifting demand dynamics. Plus, they break down how Trump tariff concerns and refinery economics are influencing the market. Will gasoline rally into the summer driving season, or is this just a temporary bounce? They also explore crude market dislocations, product spreads, and the implications of refinery maintenance worldwide. Tune in for expert insights and their trade idea!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.
Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
Learn more about James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course: onyxcapitalgroup.com/learn
Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 17th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key highlights this week:
Chinese data beats expectations while US data continues to disappoint
Gold surges through $3,000
U.S. equity declines continue
Trump speaks with Putin Tuesday
Key data releases this week:
Monday – U.S. retail sales
Tuesday – EZ economic sentiment, US housing starts
Wednesday – BOJ & FOMC rate decisions, NZ GDP
Thursday – BOE rate decision, Aussie employment, US leading index
Friday – US consumer confidence
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
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CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.
Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by guest Robert McNally, President of Rapitan Energy Group, to unpack the latest developments in U.S. energy policy, geopolitics, and oil markets under the Trump administration.
Harry and Robert discuss key topics such as Iran sanctions, OPEC+ dynamics, and the delicate balancing act of driving oil prices lower while maintaining domestic production. Robert also provides expert insights into the administration’s strategy, drawing on his experience working with the George W. Bush administration.
The discussion also dives into the ongoing negotiations surrounding Ukraine and Russia, the evolving U.S.-Saudi relationship, and how these factors impact global oil markets. With first-hand experience in both policy and market analysis, Robert sheds light on how Washington’s decisions ripple through global markets. If you're looking to decode the administration’s approach to energy and trade, this is a must-watch episode.
Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
Get industry news, research, and commentary on Flux News: flux.live
Get live industry-grade data on Flux Terminal - free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Follow us:
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, Ed and Will dive into the economic turmoil caused by tariffs and trade uncertainty. Stock markets are in freefall, with the Nasdaq dropping 4%, and businesses across industries—from steel to semiconductors—are left scrambling. The Officials break down how tariffs disrupt global trade, impact GDP, and fuel inflation concerns.
The Officials discuss the broader implications for monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s dilemma, and how trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are reshaping economic strategies. Plus, they explore the latest geopolitical developments, including U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine, energy market shifts, and the outlook for oil prices.
Are we headed for a prolonged slowdown? What does this mean for investors and policymakers?
Tune in for a sharp, no-nonsense discussion on the state of the global economy.
🎧 Listen now and stay informed!
GlobalEconomy #StockMarket #Tariffs #TradeWar #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #MarketUncertainty #Investing #EconomicPolicy #OilPrices #Geopolitics #USCanadaTrade #TradeTensions #RecessionRisk #FinancePodcast #EconomicTrends #MoneyMatters #Macroeconomics #BusinessNews
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk
Sign up for James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course: onyxcapitalgroup.com/learn
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 10th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key highlights this week:
U.S. employment data in line with expectations
German fiscal expansion sends yields surging (worst day in 35 years)
China falls into deflation again Dollar’s 3rd worst week in 15 years
Bullish bets for oil near 15-year lows
Key data releases this week:
Tuesday – JOLTS job openings
Wednesday – US CPI, mortgage applications, BOC rate decision
Thursday– US PPI
Friday – US consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.
Don't forget to visit Onyx Markets! https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
Welcome back to Trading Corner. Manny and James break down the latest moves in crude and product markets.
This episode of Trading Corner dives into the latest market trends, breaking down recent shifts in oil prices, refinery margins, and the broader financial landscape. The hosts chat about how geopolitical events, financial pressures, and supply-demand dynamics are shaping the market, sharing their takes on what could happen next. They also discuss trading strategies, the impact of turnarounds, and whether the current bearish sentiment will stick around.
Tune in as Manny and James analyse the data, the market’s reactions, and what to expect.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.
Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by guest Kate Durian, Fellow of the Energy Institute UK & Contributing Editor to the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) publication, for a special episode.
Drawing on Kate's experience, they discuss Saudi Arabia’s strategic approach to oil production, the UAE’s evolving role within OPEC+, and the broader impact of U.S. foreign policy under Trump. They also explore Iran’s oil exports amid sanctions, the shifting dynamics of global supply and demand, and the long-term sustainability of OPEC+ market management strategies.
In addition to market fundamentals, the podcast highlights geopolitical tensions in the Middle East - particularly the impact of the ongoing Gaza conflict and regional economic pressures. Harry and Kate analyse the potential consequences of U.S. tariffs, Saudi-UAE relations, and Iraq’s compliance with OPEC+ targets.
Trade with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, Will and Ed dive into the latest developments in oil markets, uncovering shocking claims about OPEC's data credibility and the mounting pressure on analysts to alter production figures. With oil prices slipping into the upper $60s, the Officials break down the real drivers behind the volatility—beyond just market speculation…..
The Officials discuss:
- The growing scepticism around OPEC’s reported production numbers
- How trade wars and tariff battles are shaking up global economies
- The potential impact of a resolution in Ukraine on European markets
- China’s economic outlook and its influence on global oil demand
- The shifting dynamics in energy exports and geopolitical power plays
With major corrections across stock markets, crypto losses, and uncertainty in trade policies, the Officials explore what’s next for oil and global economics. Will the market correct itself, or are we heading into more turmoil?
OPEC #Data #oil #oilandgas #oott #geopolitics #data #credibility #volatilty #energymarkets #energy #trading #finance
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 3rd of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key highlights this week:
• Weak U.S. data as market fears growth over inflation
• Trump stirs geopolitical tensions; tariff announcements Tuesday
• Nasdaq regains support
• Tesla down 41% off highs
• China data improves - signs of recovery?
Key data releases this week:
• Monday – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Tuesday – Trump sets tariff levels, Aussie retail sales, EZ Unem. Rate
• Wednesday – EZ, UK & US services PMI, ADP employment
• Thursday – ECB (25bp cut expected), initial jobless claims
• Friday – EZ GDP, US & Canadian payroll data
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price direction and technical analysis in the oil market over the last week.
It's International Energy Week, and the team talk key takeaways so far. They explore major market drivers, including potential Trump tariffs and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, the evolving Russia-Ukraine situation, and shifting global oil flows. With Brent sitting around $73.30/bbl, the team examines volatility, OPEC+’s potential response, and China’s role in Iranian crude purchases.
The team also discuss refining challenges - particularly Nigeria’s Dangote refinery - and the impact of possible U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil. Finally, they give their forecasts for where Brent will sit at the end of Q1.
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In this episode of The Officials, Jorge and Ed are joined by Alex Ng, Head of Trading at Hendon Capital, for a special discussion during International Energy week. They cover happenings in the market this week, including Trump's supposed plan for Gaza, OPEC losing credibility, China's oil consumption, and more.
Join The Officials for a comprehensive analysis of what's driving global markets, the forces behind these changes, and what lies ahead.
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CFD and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 24th of February, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12:30pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key highlights this week:
Conservatives win German election
Weakest US consumer sentiment since Nov '23
S&P at critical level; Nasdaq sitting on key support
Meta reverses massive winning streak
Key Data Releases This Week:
Tuesday: US house prices & consumer confidence
Wednesday: Australian CPI, German consumer confidence, US new home sales, Nvidia
Thursday: US durable goods orders, Japan retail sales & IP
Friday: US inflation (PCE deflator)
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The world is shifting, and Europe's place in the global energy order is more uncertain than ever. In this debut episode, Mirko Ivanda, Co-Head of Power & Gas, sits down with Greg Newman, our Group CEO, for a deep dive into Europe's energy crisis, market realities, and what comes next.
- Why is Europe losing its competitive edge in energy markets?
- How are traders navigating the volatility in gas and power?
- What role does politics play in shaping the future of energy?
Filmed in our brand-new Zug, Switzerland media office, this episode kicks off a no-holds-barred, data-driven conversation about the forces shaping Europe's energy landscape.
00:00:00 – Introduction: The global power shift
00:00:22 – Welcome to Europe, Power & Gas from Zug, Switzerland
00:00:56 – Why Onyx is expanding into electricity and gas markets
00:02:07 – Europe at a crossroads: Energy, politics, and global influence
00:03:51 – The decline of empires and shifting world orders
00:05:18 – Complacency in European energy policy
00:09:01 – The true cost of cheap energy and dependence on Russian gas
00:12:04 – Gas markets in 2024: Supply shocks and volatility
00:14:22 – Europe’s storage strategy: Does it make sense?
00:19:34 – Why traders love European energy policy (and how it’s backfiring)
00:26:58 – How can Europe survive the energy crisis?
00:30:34 – The inflection point: Will Europe change course?
00:38:18 – Geopolitics, energy, and the return of mercantilism
00:46:35 – Trump, oil prices, and what it means for Europe
00:50:12 – Market signals: Carbon pricing, gas storage, and the road ahead
00:57:01 – The carbon market dilemma: A means to an end?
01:00:08 – Closing thoughts: What’s next for Europe, Power & Gas
EnergyMarkets #EuropePowerGas #OilAndGas #EnergyCrisis #MarketVolatility #Geopolitics #Trading #NaturalGas #CarbonMarkets #Electricity #Commodities #GlobalEnergy #HopeDiesLast
Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu, and Research Analyst Oliver Feore discuss the price direction and positioning in the oil market over the past week.
This week, the team discusses trends in the oil market using Onyx’s positioning data, specifically looking at Brent/Dubai and Northwest European naphtha swaps amid rising uncertainty in the market. They highlight the impact of a potential peace deal regarding the war in Ukraine and OPEC+’s supply decision. At the time of writing, Brent futures have seen more support, rising above the $76/bbl handle.
The market appears to be a waiting game at present, with traders taking a cautious stance due to the rising uncertainty. Oliver covers the latest positioning changes in ICE Brent alongside the more timely changes in Onyx’s CTA positioning model across the benchmark futures contracts. Vincent dives into Onyx’s proprietary data for insights into the front-month Brent/Dubai contract, looking at the contract’s open interest, price volatility and positioning data to create a narrative for sentiment this week. Mita then covers the front-month Northwest European naphtha market, where this week’s support has come with day-on-day fluctuations in open interest, with trade houses appearing particularly active. Finally, the team gives their Brent forecasts for the end of Q1, highlighting what they think will be an important driver of the market.
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Welcome back to Trading Corner. Manny and James break down the latest moves in crude and product markets.
This week, they focus crude oil, refined products, and geopolitical influences. Manny and James analyse the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine negotiations on oil markets, including potential shifts in diesel and crude supply dynamics. They also highlight volatility in gasoline and diesel prices, low market conviction among trade houses, and expectations for refining margins to remain strong in the near term due to supply disruptions and seasonal factors.
Tune in as Manny and James analyse the data, the market’s reactions, and what to expect.
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
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CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.
Don't forget to visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Will and Ed dive into the latest geopolitical shifts, focusing on the recent U.S.-Russia negotiations in Riyadh—an unusual choice signalling Europe's exclusion. The Officials analyse the broader implications for global markets, from Europe's economic struggles and energy crisis to Trump's policy moves and China's economic recovery. Is Europe dragging down global consumption? Will Trump's tariffs boost U.S. energy demand? Jorge, Will and Ed also explore the impact of price caps on Russian oil, China's market outlook, and the rising demand for jet fuel despite aviation setbacks. Plus, a look ahead to next week’s key negotiations that could reshape global supply.
Join The Officials for a comprehensive analysis of what's driving global markets, the forces behind these changes, and what lies ahead.
Source of video footage: TikTok @c4news
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CFD and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 17th of February, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key highlights this week:
- Trump brings Putin to the negotiation table
- Market uncertainty surges; economic policy uncertainty index hits highest in 25 years
- Trump issues new tariffs
- Weak U.S. retail sales data
Key Data Releases This Week:
Tuesday: RBA rate decision, UK employment
Wednesday: Housing starts, Fed minutes, UK CPI
Thursday: Aussie employment
Friday: Flash PMIs, US consumer sentiment, Existing home sales
Sunday: German elections
20% S&P 500 companies reporting
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Join The Officials - Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian, and Research Analysts William Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett - for a brand new episode. They unpack and analyse the effects Trump's moves have had on the markets this week - and what could happen in the near future.
From continuing tariffs to peace talks with Putin, it's been a busy week. What would the war between Russia and Ukraine ending mean for the oil markets? How would Russian supply coming back to Europe impact prices, and what does Germany's reaction to the peace talks mean?
Join The Officials for a comprehensive analysis of what's driving global markets, the forces behind these changes, and what lies ahead.
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Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price direction and technical analysis in the oil market over the last week.
The team unpacks key market drivers, including President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, ongoing Fed interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments such as U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine. They also cover critical fundamentals, including OPEC’s latest demand forecasts and U.S. crude inventory builds, as well as technical factors influencing Brent, gasoline, and gasoil prices. Looking ahead, the team give their Brent forecasts.
Focusing on technical analysis, the episode explores price trends, support and resistance levels, and momentum indicators. Brent has been on a steady decline since Trump’s inauguration, with a bearish outlook suggesting a potential test of the $72/bbl level in the coming week. Meanwhile, European gasoil and U.S. gasoline markets exhibit range-bound trading, with key support and resistance levels dictating short-term price action. The team give their forecasts
Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Martin Shearman-Brettle, Broadcast and Multimedia Studio Manager, for a special episode of the CEO’s Address.
Martin discusses their unique career journey, from esports to news and sports production, and how these experiences shaped Onyx’s innovative approach to media. They share insights into bringing production in-house, transforming it into a major differentiator, and making Onyx a leading voice in financial media.
Greg and Martin also explore the democratisation of production and its parallels to oil trading. They touch on the bold vision behind Flux TV, Onyx’s most ambitious broadcast product to date, and the role media plays in breaking barriers and driving Onyx’s mission.
This is a conversation about creativity, strategy, and the future of media in the fast-paced financial world that you won’t want to miss.
Chapters in this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:06 How Martin joined Onyx | Onyx's mission
6:19 Martin's career
10:40 Work flow & content style
18:51 Format development, Wu Fridays, & controversy
31:01 Production style & messaging
34:58 Martin's experience with esports & what's next for Onyx
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This special episode of Macro Mondays LIVE from Singapore aired at 12pm GMT on Monday, 10th February 2025.
Join us every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key highlights this week:
- We're seeing stronger US economic data and employment data - but Fed is still wary of inflation.
- Chinese tech stocks are looking strong.
- Bank of England cut 25bp - but central bank warns of inflation.
- Trump is still looking to lower oil prices.
- Gold hits new all-time highs.
Key Data Releases This Week:
Tuesday: Fed Powell testimony, UK retail sales
Wednesday: US CPI
Thursday: US PPI, UK GDP, EZ IP
Friday: US retail sales & IP, EZ employment
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.
Join The Officials - Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque and Research Analysts William Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett - for a brand new episode. They unpack and analyse the effects Trump's tariffs have had on the oil market so far - and what could happen in the near future.
Jorge, Ed, and Will discuss the diverse reaction of different governments to the new tariffs, how the tariffs have impacted the global economy so far, how US refiners have been impacted, and even how Trump's global reputation has been impacted. We've seen vastly different responses from Canada, Mexico, the EU, China, and more - but does the US realise the strength of China's energy power?
Join The Officials for a comprehensive analysis of what's driving global markets, the forces behind these changes, and what lies ahead for 2025.
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Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the direction of oil prices in the wake of a volatile week of Trump tariffs.
Traders are on edge after the US' decision to delay tariffs on oil imports from Mexico and Canada. China has also responded, introducing selective tariffs on U.S. coal and LNG. Brent was sitting just under $75/bbl at time of recording, and while the postponement eased immediate concerns, there’s still a chance these tariffs could resurface.
The team discuss Trump's plans to ramp up economic pressure on Iran and limit its oil exports. The effectiveness of this proposed policy is questionable, given that much of Iran’s oil is still making its way to China despite sanctions. They also discuss how refining margins and gasoline prices could be affected, especially as U.S. refiners are built to handle heavier crude from Canada and Mexico. Looking ahead, the team give their Brent forecasts.
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Welcome back to the first episode of Trading Corner for 2025. Manny and James break down the latest moves in crude and product markets amid volatile headline-driven price action. They discuss the key factors impacting Brent and Dubai spreads, refinery maintenance, trade house positioning, and shifting demand signals. Plus, they explore the impact of potential Iranian sanctions, Russian supply disruptions, and OPEC’s production strategy on fuel markets. Will Crude weakness persist, or are there hidden opportunities? Tune in as Manny and James analyse the data, the market’s reactions, and what could be coming next.
tradingcorner #tradingchat #chatwithtraders #crude #refinery #OPEC #Russian #Russiansupply #oil #oilandgas #oott #fuelmarkets #tradehouses
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This episode aired live at 12:30pm UK time. Join us every Monday for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key Highlights:
-Trump implements 25% tariff on Mexico & Canada, 10% on China. Trump has said the EU is "really out of line," and has warned of potential 100% tariffs if BRICS attempt to replace US dollar.
-Bitcoin volatility is spiking, with Ethereum down -37%. Key support 91,370.
-DeepSeek upends US tech stocks; NVIDIA down -17%, Alibaba up +17%.
-US housing continues to weaken; existing home sales are lowest since 1995, pending home sales fell -5.5% in December, and first-time buyers accounted for 24% - a record low.
-European data is weak; OIS prices 75bp cuts this year.
-WTI opened up 2%, and Brent rose about 1% but retracted. This isn't a supply disruption, but a price distortion. Canadian producers may foot the tariff bill.
Key Data Releases This Week:
Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, China Caixin PMIs
Tuesday: JOLTS
Wednesday: US Services PMI, ADP, China Caixin Services PMIs, UK & EZ PMIs
Thursday: BOE meeting (-25bp cut expected)
Friday: U.S. & Canada payrolls
Plus 20% S&P 500 report earnings this week
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
In this festive episode of The Officials, Jorge, Vincent, Will and Ed delve into the fast-moving dynamics of the global oil market, exploring the bearish factors driving prices below $77/bbl, the new disruptor in the AI space, and key macro themes. Topics in today's episode include:
• Traders take a break for Chinese New Year.
• DeepSeek disrupting the AI space.
• The Trump effect, as the market the market unwinds length.
• Hawkish FOMC and the impact of higher for longer rates.
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Welcome to a special edition of The Watchers on Oil Insights! Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by Jorge Montepeque, Head of Benchmarks & Reporting, to analyse the market impact of President Trump’s early days in office.
At the time of recording (11.00am GMT), Brent futures were trading at $77.50/bbl, following a sharp decline amid US equity turbulence and China’s AI advancements. Harry and Jorge break down the effects of Trump’s executive orders, trade policies, and market positioning shifts.
Key topics include:
The role of tariffs in Trump’s economic strategy
How oil markets react to US policy execution
OPEC’s upcoming decisions and potential responses
The evolving US-China dynamic and its impact on commodities
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Join us this Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week.
Key Highlights:
- DeepSeek's Disruption: U.S. tech stocks tumble as DeepSeek's cost-effective AI model challenges the dominance of advanced chip manufacturing, sending Nasdaq down 3.4%. Nvidia faces a -5% open.
- Trump's Tariffs: A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting February 1st rattles markets, alongside calls for immediate interest rate cuts.
- China PMI Weakness: Manufacturing PMI drops to 49.1 (est. 50.1), signalling deeper deflationary risks, while services PMI weakens further.
- Global Housing Slump: U.S. mortgage demand hits a 30-year low as inventories surge, and home sales collapse. Housing is set to dominate the 2025 economic narrative.
- Market Volatility: Bitcoin's wild swings see risk near $91,370, gold eyes new all-time highs targeting $2,790, and copper surges but faces resistance.
- Europe's Struggles: Germany slashes its GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, while France plans spending cuts amidst weakening PMIs.
Key Data Releases This Week:
- Monday: U.S. New Home Sales
- Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting
- Friday: Core PCE Inflation, Employment Cost Index
Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don’t miss it!
MacroMondays #GlobalMarkets #DeepSeek #TrumpTariffs #USTechStocks #Bitcoin #Gold #Copper #HousingMarket #PMIData #ChinaEconomy #GermanyGDP #FranceEconomy #Nasdaq #InterestRates #MarketVolatility
This episode of Trading Corner dives into the dynamics of global crude oil markets, focusing on refining margins, shifts in supply due to sanctions, and the impact of Chinese New Year on market activity. Manny and James discuss fluctuations in Brent and Dubai spreads, the influence of geopolitical factors, and the challenges posed by varying demand across regions. They also highlight the extreme market sensitivity to sentiment and headlines, making trading strategies more nuanced and cautious.
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With Harry Tchilinguirian away, Vincent Wu hosts today's episode of Oil Insights and discusses the latest oil market developments with Onyx Research Associates Martha Dowding and Mita Chaturvedi.
They discuss Trump's day one executive actions in relation to energy, including his declaration of a national energy emergency and intention to fill up the SPR. The team also discuss the potential impact of tariffs on the global petrochemicals trade, as well as the Houthis lifting the "ban" on international vessels transiting the Red Sea, in light of the ceasefire reached between Israel and Hama. For this week's crystal ball moment, Mita, Martha, and Vincent debate whether Brent will end the quarter trading over $80/bbl.
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With Harry Tchilinguirian away, Mita Chaturvedi hosts today's episode of Oil Insights and discusses the latest oil market developments with Onyx Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu. Key topics include the impact of the Biden administration's latest slew of sanctions against Russian oil and its impact on the Brent/Dubai spread as Chinese and Indian refiners look for alternatives to Russian crude oil. The episode also delves into changes in ICE Brent positioning as per the latest Commitment of Traders report and Onyx's CTA Model, and the future outlook for oil prices amid this question mark on supplies and how OPEC+ fits into this narrative. Tune in for expert analysis and a glimpse into the crystal ball for 2025's oil markets.
Correction: During the discussion at 10:09, the 1.2 million barrels per day surplus mentioned should be the LOSS of a 1.2 million barrels per day surplus.
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In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, Will and Martha delve into the fast-moving dynamics of the global oil market, exploring the bullish trends driving prices above $82/bbl and the geopolitical forces fueling this surge.
Key topics in today's episode include:
- The impact of impending U.S. sanctions and tariffs under the Trump administration.
- A scramble for crude as nations like China and India rush to secure supply ahead of potential restrictions.
- The astonishing premiums on Dubai-related crude and the winners and losers in this volatile environment.
- Insights into Europe’s crude shortages and the broader implications for global markets.
- Fear-driven pricing, production challenges in Texas, and how weather is influencing supply dynamics.
Plus, reflections on economic shifts, rising interest rates, and what lies ahead for oil prices as we enter the Lunar New Year.
This special episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 17:00 UK time on Friday, the 10th of January after U.S. monthly payrolls were released.
Highlights of This Week's Macro Trends:
-
U.S. Economy: A surprise surge in U.S. payrolls (+256K) with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish commentary from Fed officials underscores inflation risks, while the steepening U.S. yield curve hints at continued equity volatility.
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Global Markets: Chinese deflationary fears deepen, with CPI at +0.1% and PPI at -2.4%, while German industrial orders plummet (-5.4% MoM). In the UK, 30-year gilt yields hit their highest since 1998, adding to concerns of a potential bond crisis.
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Commodities: Oil markets start the year higher, gold resumes its upward trend, and commodities across the board show signs of recovery.
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Bitcoin and Equities: Bitcoin trades precariously, risking a fall below $91,370, while Nasdaq volume surges with record-breaking trades.
Key Data Releases Ahead:
- Tuesday: U.S. PPI, NFIB Small Business Optimism
- Wednesday: U.S. CPI, UK CPI, PPI
- Thursday: U.S. Retail Sales, UK Monthly GDP, Industrial Production
- Friday: U.S. Industrial Production, UK Retail Sales, China GDP
Join the conversation to uncover how these developments could shape markets in the week ahead. Don’t miss out on this special edition of Macro Mondays LIVE on a Friday!
In the first episode back of Oil Insights for 2025, host Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Research Associates Martha Dowding, Vincent Wu, and Mita Chaturvedi. Together, they analyse the buoyancy of Brent oil futures in early 2025, currently trading in the high $70/bbl, amidst a weak fundamental outlook for 2025.
The discussion explores key factors driving recent market trends, including:
- The reversal of risk-taker positioning and the resurgence of long exposure among money managers.
- Seasonal demand spikes for heating fuels and strong physical markets in the Middle East and Asia.
- Supply-side disruptions, including U.S. offshore drilling bans and escalated sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude exports.
- Broader macroeconomic risks, including geopolitical uncertainty with Donald Trump’s inauguration and its potential impact on global oil flows.
With Brent futures rallying into 2025 and significant backwardation observed in the market, this episode dives deep into the dynamics influencing prices and the outlook for the year ahead.
Join The Officials, Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque and Research Analysts William Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett for their first episode back for 2025. They kick off the year by diving into critical economic trends shaping the global landscape. The Officials (spanning from Singapore to London), unpack early observations about China's evolving economic strategies, the ripple effects of US policies, and the challenges facing sovereign debt markets.
Jorge, Edward and Will discuss;
- China's shifting demand for commodities and the structural implications of its transition toward EVs.
- Rising sovereign credit risks in the UK and Europe, with insights into volatile bond yields and currency movements.
- Energy market turbulence, including the UK's power generation challenges and the broader consequences of renewable energy transitions.
- A global perspective on commodity markets, touching on the Chinese New Year’s potential impact and Saudi-China oil trade dynamics.
Join The Officials for a comprehensive analysis of what's driving global markets, the forces behind these changes, and what lies ahead for 2025.
This week brought a range of notable market and economic developments.
The U.S. dollar started the year on a strong note, reaching new cycle highs above 109. This strength pushed the EUR/USD to its lowest levels in over two years and led to significant discussions around global currency stability, with the USD/CNY breaking above 7.33—a move interpreted as a deliberate policy decision by China to weaken its currency.
In manufacturing data, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose slightly to 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 48.2. While prices paid and new orders showed resilience, employment weakened significantly, heightening anticipation for Friday's key payrolls report. Globally, manufacturing PMI momentum remains weak, with the sector contracting for the fifth time in six months.
China's economic signals were mixed. Bond yields continued to drop, reflecting underlying weakness, despite modest improvements in December’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 50.5. Meanwhile, Tesla sales fell for the first time in over a decade, and BYD became the second-largest automaker worldwide, driven by strong sales in China.
Oil markets started the year with a sharp spike, driven by aggressive buying from China. Brent crude closed above $77, signalling potential breakouts ahead. In contrast, Bitcoin hovered just below the $100,000 mark, continuing to correlate closely with broader risk assets.
Looking to Europe, economic divergence with the U.S. remains pronounced. The Eurozone faces potential deflationary risks, as indicated by the 5y5y inflation swap rate falling to 2%. Additionally, weak UK mortgage approvals and retail data compounded concerns, contributing to GBP weakness.
Key events for this week include:
Tuesday: ISM services data and JOLTS job openings
Wednesday: ADP payrolls, FOMC minutes, and Eurozone PPI
Thursday: Jobless claims and Eurozone retail sales
Friday: U.S. payrolls, consumer sentiment, and Canadian employment data
As we move deeper into 2025, markets will closely monitor the evolving dynamics of global economies, with Friday’s payroll data poised to shape near-term expectations.
In the final episode of Oil Insights for the year, host Harry Tchilinguirian, along with the Onyx Research team—Martha Dowding, Vincent Wu, Will Cunliffe, and Edward Hayden-Briffett—recap the key drivers of the 2024 oil market and explore their implications for 2025.
Topics include geopolitical risks, divergent global oil demand forecasts, OPEC+ production strategies, and macroeconomic shifts like monetary policy easing and China’s economic challenges. The team also discusses Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. president and its impact on global markets and oil. Tune in for insights on the global oil balance and what to expect in 2025.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page.
Live from Chongqing, China! Jorge dives into the latest oil market recovery as prices edge towards $75. He breaks down the Top 10 Reasons Why Markets Have Turned Back, highlighting key global trends and insights. From China’s increased quotas and state company purchases to Saudi Arabia’s strategic price cuts and the UAE’s surprising production cuts, Jorge explores the driving forces behind this market shift.
He also touch on China’s economic rebound, Europe’s rate cuts fuelling crude demand, and the evolving sentiment around global energy policies. Plus, find out why changes in Germany and France’s political landscapes might play a role in shaping future markets.
This episode aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
In US data, inflation is trending higher, pushing both yields and the dollar higher, and this is a definite warning signal for 2025. Job postings are continuing to fall, but small business sentiment is surging leading up to Trump's inauguration. Equity investors are looking the most bullish ever, as Nasdaq reaches new all-time highs.
In China, yields are trending aggressively lower, not helped by further weakness in house prices and weaker than expected retail sales, but EV sales are surging. In Europe, France has been downgraded by Moody's to Aa3, and UK GDP unexpectedly contracted. UK-European relations will continue to face trade hurdles.
Bitcoin is breaking out even higher, touching $106,500. Meanwhile, Brent price remains in a narrow range and silver is looking for support.
Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: US retail sales
Wednesday: Federal Reserve meeting (-24bp priced)
Thursday: BOJ (+4bp priced), existing home sales
Friday: PCE inflation data
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
This week, we discuss falling global bond yields as both American and Canadian unemployment saw increases, while ISM Services PMI surprisingly fell sharply. Data over the weekend also highlighted continued deflation in China, while Japanese salaries saw a record gain with the BOJ expected to hike on the 19th of December. In Europe, the French political turmoil continues, while German industrial production showed unexpected weakness. Meanwhile the UK data also missed across the board, PMI, retail sales, and business confidence data all came in lower than expectation. We discuss these impacts on the markets highlighting key charts and trends.
Bitcoin is seeing volatility around $100,00, and Altcoins are surging. Meanwhile, Brent volatility continues to fall amongst unrest in Syria. James and James also discuss gold and copper prices.
Key events for the week include:
Wednesday: U.S. CPI, BOC (-48bp)
Thursday: U.S. PPI, ECB (-27bp), SNB (-36bp)
Manny and James dive into the dynamics of crude oil and refined product markets as the year winds down. They analyse Brent spreads, distillates, and gasoline demand trends, highlighting bearish sentiment for next year balanced by current storage economics. They discuss refinery margins, potential impacts of cold weather on markets, and trading strategies for Brent spreads and gasoline heading into summer. With an eye on OPEC+ actions, freight dynamics, and shifting demand between regions, they weigh the implications of a relatively calm market environment.
In this special mini episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) react live to the collapse in Brent flat price as the OPEC+ meeting convenes.
We've seen a loss of over $2/bbl in the last 24 hours and OPEC+'s delay of barrels returning by 3 months, while some countries continue to exceed their OPEC+ production limits.
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 3rd December, 2024 at 10:30am GMT. In this special edition episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) discuss the oil market over the past week.
Harry and Jorge take a critical look at the dynamics surrounding OPEC+'s upcoming meeting that's been delayed. They unpack the underlying tension and dissent among member states leading up to the meeting, as well as what to expect from the meeting and current challenges facing OPEC+.
Harry and Jorge debate how OPEC+ will act should we enter a trade war in 2025: Will they reduce production, or revert to a market-orientated approach? Finally, they give their energy demand and Brent price forecasts for the rest of the year.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time as James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
This week, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high and is trending higher overall. US consumer confidence and US Black Friday online sales hit a highs as well, and stock market optimism has soared. On the other hand, US new home sales fell 17.3% while US homes for sale continued to trend high. US debt looms and the yield suggests a dollar top is near.
We saw mixed Chinese data over the weekend, with record monthly outflows from major Chinese ETFs and bond yield the lowest in decades. Germany October retail sales fell, and the Eurozone November CPI inflation rose 2.3% Y/Y. Brent volatility and gold both fell.
Key events for the week include:
Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: JOLTS job opening data
Wednesday: ADP employment data, ISM services, FED's Powell speaks
Thursday: Initial jobless claims data
Friday: November jobs report, consumer confidence
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, and Will delve into a range of critical topics shaping energy markets and global economics. They begin with the impact of potential tariff escalations in North America, discussing how proposed policies may affect energy prices and trade dynamics, with a focus on U.S. relationships with Canada and Mexico.
The discussion transitions to OPEC’s struggles with production quotas and internal disagreements, as well as the broader implications of supply dynamics and leakage on global oil markets. Insights from Asia reveal intriguing shifts, particularly in China, where corporate bond issuance and strategic energy stockpiles are reshaping the landscape.
We take a closer look at Europe, highlighting alarming trends in industrial decline, employment cuts, and surging debt issuance. The team also explores how these challenges are influencing energy demand and the balance of global production.
Finally, the team analyses Russia’s economic turbulence and China’s surprising economic resilience, offering a comprehensive overview of how geopolitical and macroeconomic factors are intersecting in unpredictable ways.
Connect with The Officials on LinkedIn:
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Will Cunliffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/
Harry Tchilinguirian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 26th November, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Vincent Wu and Mita Chaturvedi join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price action and major events in the oil market over the past week.
Following Trump’s re-election, the oil markets are bracing for potential policy shifts, including proposed tariffs and energy production increases. Harry, Mita, and Vincent explore the price outlook, geopolitical developments from Ukraine to the Middle East, and technical signals hinting at future market moves.
The team also provide an in-depth analysis of the gasoil/diesel market, examining seasonal trends, supply tightness, and price support factors across Europe and Asia. In this week's "Crystal Ball Moment," Mita shares her forecast for Brent as 2024 draws to a close. They also discuss potential market movements with the Thanksgiving holiday coming up at the end of the week.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page.
You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
This week brought a flurry of critical developments, with Scott Bessent named as Treasury Secretary, signaling potential shifts in U.S. fiscal policy. Known for his bond market expertise, Bessent’s appointment caused gold prices to dip and led to fresh buying of bonds with 10-year yields falling 7bp on Monday's open. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $99,500, reflecting growing crypto optimism under the new administration.
In economic data, the U.S. saw mixed PMI numbers, with services surging to 57 (est 55) while manufacturing stagnated at 48.8 (est 48.8). Unemployment trends raised concerns, with continuing claims rising to a three-year high. However, U.S. corporate bond spreads hit record lows, pointing to potential bubble risks.
European data continues to disappoint, with German and French PMIs remaining weak. The Eurozone 5yr5yr forward inflation swap fell to 2%, sparking discussions of deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, UK retail sales dropped, and CPI rose to 2.3%, stirring market concerns.
Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: Fed minutes
Wednesday: U.S. PCE price index, Q3 GDP, Durable goods orders
Thursday: Eurozone inflation, Canadian GDP, Thanksgiving holiday
Friday: U.S. PMIs, Consumer sentiment, Eurozone services PMI, UK retail sales
Saturday: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data
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In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, Will, and Mita dive deeper into the evolving world of electric vehicles and how they're affecting the energy markets. In China, data is highlighting surging sales of new EV models and insurance registrations - likely thanks to the rapid advancements in quality and affordability. They also touch on how broader Chinese economic confidence, credit trends, and real estate developments are influencing spending patterns and demand for resources.
The Officials also discuss global geopolitical tensions, including missile developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, recent political maneuvers of Western powers, and the International Criminal Court issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu.
Mita analyses U.S. gasoline and diesel inventory trends, exploring how seasonal factors like Thanksgiving travel and tight supply conditions will affect market dynamics. With Thanksgiving coming up next week, we'll see if gasoline demand spikes as expected.
Connect with The Officials on LinkedIn:
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Will Cunliffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/
Edward Hayden-Briffett: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-hayden-briffett/
Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/
Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Onyx Direct Trader Vicky Chen for a special episode of the CEO's Address. Vicky discusses the experience and learnings she's gained since she joined Onyx seven years ago with no prior direct trading experience.
As Vicky's been with Onyx, the team has expanded to provide enhanced direct trading services in more languages and in more regions. She and Greg discuss the challenges involved in providing services and market updates to clients 24/5 - and how onyx plans to continue expanding these services. They also discuss the specificities of the Chinese market (Vicky's main focus) and the overall Chinese attitude towards trading.
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 19th November, 2024 at 1:30pm GMT.
Onyx Research Associate Martha Dowding joins Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price action in the oil market over the past week. In the two weeks since Trump's election, oil price has seen little movement, while the equity market has seen remarkable change.
While cryptocurrency value has increased off the back of Trump's election, what's to come for the oil market once he's in office remains unclear. From his proposed tariffs to the US' "drill baby drill" production motto, the future of the US - and global - economy remains up in the air. Meanwhile, OPEC+ supply cuts, China's weak macroeconomic data =, and fluctuating geopolitical tensions are playing their roles in relatively stable Brent price.
This week on Trading Corner, Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, James Anderson discusses key developments in the oil market with Head of Desk, Manny Newman. They dive into post-election market dynamics, refinery margins, and the impact of seasonal turnaround cycles. James shares insights on the Brent vs. Products spreads, China’s influence on global crude prices, and potential shifts in U.S. export dynamics.
Manny and James also tackle the interplay between distillate cracks, freight movements, and broader geopolitical factors, including Iranian exports and OPEC production. As we approach the holiday season, Manny and James explore how low liquidity and key events like Thanksgiving could influence market volatility.
Plus, James and our Manny debate the best trade strategies of the week—short-dated Brent vs. bullish deferred crude spreads.
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm GMT on Monday, the 18th of November. Tune in Mondays at 12:30pm UK time to watch Macro Mondays live.
On today's episode, James and Will dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets.
Last week, Bitcoin, S&P 500, and NASDAQ hit all-time highs - but whether this rally will continue is unclear thanks to rising yields. Meanwhile, US Dollar strength is causing havoc with EURUSD & USD Yuan making multi-month lows, and causing more distress in EMG with USDINR at all-time highs.
CPI and PPI are both rising for the first time since September 2022. Lorie K Logan from the Fed has said that the US Central Bank will most likely need to make more interest rate cuts. Dogecoin spiked following Trump's announcement of the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), co-headed by Elon Musk, it has risen 170% in the last 4 months. Bitcoin is now the 8th-largest asset in the world, just behind Saudi Aramco.
We saw mixed Chinese data, strong retail sales but weak industrial production and falling house prices, and OPEC cut their global oil demand growth forecast for the 4th consecutive month. German data continues to look weak, both IFO and ZEW came in below expectations, and UK unemployment has jumped form 4.1% to 4.3%.
The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market.
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In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, Harinder and Dr. Wu explore the latest trends in global energy dynamics and political shifts, and deep dive into the rapidly changing landscape in China - where electric vehicles (EVs) are taking over, significantly impacting gasoline and diesel demand. They discuss startling stats, the shift to EVs in major Chinese cities, the competitive tech race, and the broader economic implications - including substantial reductions in daily transportation costs.
The Officials also tackle the dilemma OPEC faces, balancing production cuts amid declining Chinese demand and potential price impacts.
The discussion moves to the geopolitical sphere, dissecting President-elect Trump's cabinet nominations and their implications. They discuss trade tariffs that could disrupt European economies and drive deglobalisation and analyse how these political manoeuvres might influence global oil prices and the economic strategies shaping the energy markets.
The Officials also explore what a strengthened dollar means for investors, speculate on Musk's influence, and examine how upcoming policies could affect both the U.S. economy and international relations.
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 12th November, 2024 at 12pm GMT.
Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the direction of oil prices in the wake of President Donald Trump's election. The team reviews the potential outcomes of a second Trump presidency in relation to his policy proposals and aims to express their implications through trading ideas.
A second Trump presidency can have strong demand or supply repercussions. Vincent will examine the potential for more US crude oil supply and exports and their incidence on the relative pricing of WTI, Brent, and Dubai. Martha will look at how the potential for lighter regulation, particularly regarding renewable fuel mandates, will impact the US gasoline market. Finally, Mita delves into how future US trade policy, with heavy tariffs to be applied to China, can affect naphtha in Asia.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. What is your favourite oil Trump trade. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
Disclaimer: Any recommendation, prediction, or suggestion as to an investment strategy has been prepared by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited (“Onyx”) in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (“Research”). This research is directed at, and therefore should only be relied upon by, clients who have professional experience in matters relating to investments. Onyx’s Research is not directed at retail clients or those in a jurisdiction in which this distribution may be restricted by local regulation or law. Onyx’s publications are prepared without taking into account your specific investment objectives and financial situation, therefore before acting on any information, you should consider its appropriateness. Onyx’s Research should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice.
Onyx’s policy is to only publish Research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair, and not misleading. Any views expressed are those of Onyx’s at the time the Research was prepared. No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx’s Research and such Research may contain statements which are matters of judgement and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of its Research. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) by its clients resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in its Research. Such Research is solely produced and published by employees of Onyx and based on publicly available information. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Analysts are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest including information barriers and restrictions on the undertaking of personal transactions in financial instruments.
Onyx is registered in England & Wales (company number 11472304) with its registered address at 95 Cromwell Road, Second Floor, London, United Kingdom, SW7 4DL. Onyx is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA no. 822509).
In this episode of Trading Corner Manny Newman and Jonah Van Bourg dive into the aftermath of the recent U.S. presidential election and its implications on the markets. They break down how a potential Trump administration could influence risk assets like equities and bitcoin, with conversations around short-term bullish expectations driven by policy changes. Manny and Jonah look at the energy sector, examining how Trump's approach might affect oil and energy markets and discuss possible shale oil production increases, aggressive tariff strategies, and the geopolitical impacts on Russian and Middle Eastern oil supply.
They analyse market reactions and explore futures positioning, touching on key drivers like election day sell-offs followed by afternoon rallies. As traders approach year-end, they talk about risk aversion, the influence of geopolitical risks, and the challenge of trading in a structurally oversupplied oil market.
Manny and Jonah also provide contrasting outlooks on oil prices: Manny foresees a downward flush before any potential recovery, while Jonah believes the market has already bottomed out.
This week, market volatility took centre stage, spurred by the perceived inflationary policies under Trump. His election victory led to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields surging nearly 19 basis points, and market-based inflation expectations—like 5-year breakevens—also jumped significantly. Equities responded optimistically, with the S&P 500 up 3.3% and the Nasdaq climbing 4.5%, buoyed by hopes of deregulation.
The energy sector’s reaction was mixed; Trump's past policies affecting Iranian exports could signal a return to stricter measures. Renewable energy stocks, however, faced setbacks, with Sunrun notably impacted. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Powell hinted at a potential slowdown in further cuts, even as employment remains central to future decisions.
Internationally, the Bank of England reduced its base rate, and euro yields tumbled, driven by safe-haven demand and inflation risks. Simultaneously, China showed signs of economic recovery, with a surprising export surge and positive PMI data. Additionally, Beijing announced a substantial 10 trillion-yuan debt refinancing package, but the measures fell short on the consumer measures markets had hoped for.
James and Will unpack how these global financial shifts impact investors and the broader economic landscape.
Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian, is joined by Chief Economist at Argus Media, David Fyfe for a special episode of Oil Insights. David brings over 30 years of experience in energy market analysis, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to Gunvor and now Argus Media, where he delivers deep insights into oil market dynamics, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic fundamentals.
With the election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, Harry and David explore the potential impacts on the oil market through both economic and geopolitical lenses. From sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to shifting alliances in the Middle East and implications for OPEC+, they delve into what a Trump administration could mean for global oil supplies and prices.
David and Harry discuss the complex web of relationships involving sanctioned nations, including the evolving US-Russia dynamic and how Trump's rapport with Saudi Arabia and Israel might influence geopolitical stability. They also explore the ramifications of Trump's trade policies, especially with China, and the possible effects on global economic growth and oil demand.
On the domestic front, they analyse the prospects for US oil and gas production under Trump’s energy policies and whether we could see a revival of the "drill baby drill" mantra. Finally, Harry and Davis assess the current state of oil market fundamentals as 2024 nears its close, the ongoing debate around oil demand forecasts, and OPEC+'s options in managing supply amid an uncertain market outlook.
oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #economics #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Singapore to join Research Analysts Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe. This week, the team discuss Trump's sweep of the US election - and what this means for the economy, from what we've seen already to what's to come in the next four years. They discuss potential shifts in US green initiatives, tariffs, the budget deficit, and more.
Jorge, Ed, and Will also touch on Germany's declining industrial production and political instability, which is contributing to poor overall European economic data. Additionally, Jorge discusses the rise of electric vehicles in Chinas and the transition away from traditional oil dependency there.
On this episode of Oil Insights, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu cover the potential implications of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election on the oil market, particularly focusing on foreign policy towards sanctioned countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as key Middle Eastern allies, like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Looking at sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, for Iran, under Harris, the current containment and loose sanctions are likely to continue, allowing Iran to export around 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude. Trump would likely tighten sanctions, potentially reducing Iran's exports, once again, below 500,000 barrels per day (kb/d). As for Venezuela, limited changes are expected under either administration. However, Trump might be more supportive of oil sector activities, possibly benefiting companies like Chevron operating in Venezuela.
For Russia and Ukraine, Harris is likely to continue the Biden administration’s stance of supporting Ukraine with military aid against Russia. Whilst Trump might be able to broker a solution with Russia, which could possibly lead to the lifting sanctions, allowing more Russian oil to enter global markets.
Harry, Martha and Vincent also discuss U.S. relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whilst both parties support Israel, Trump is seen as having stronger influence over Israel and could broker regional peace talks more effectively.
And as for Saudi Arabia, Trump may have an easier path to re-establish relations and secure increased oil production, whereas Harris may adopt a critical stance.
As for U.S.-China Trade Policy, both candidates hold firm stances on trade with China, but Trump is expected to pursue more aggressive tariffs, which could lead to lower economic growth and thus, weaker global oil demand.
Finally, Harry, Martha and Vincent discuss domestic oil and gas policy. Trump is likely to reduce regulations, promote energy independence, and encourage oil infrastructure expansion, whilst Harris is expected to focus on energy transition policies, potentially slowing U.S. oil and gas production growth through regulatory constraints.
Overall, the episode suggests that the U.S. presidential outcome will have extensive repercussions for oil supply, international alliances, and the global energy market, with each candidate presenting sharply contrasting strategies.
oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #news #economics #finance #markets #marketanalysis #derivativestrading #geopolitics #brent #brentcrude #opec #opecplus #gasoline #gasprices #oilmarket #macro #macronews #finance #inflation #thefed #china #chineseeconomy #us #economy #economics #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election
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This episode of Macro Mondays was recorded at 4:30pm GMT on Friday, the 1st of November.
On today's episode, James Todd is joined by Research Analyst Will Cunliffe - as James Brodie is travelling - to dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. They discuss whether we're seeing an unwinding of the "Trump trade" as gold and the S&P 500 opened weaker on Thursday, 31st October.
We're seeing mixed data out of the US, with a mix of increased consumer confidence and disappointing non-farm payrolls. In the US, corporate spreads are also falling; ICE Bank of America high yield OAS spreads are the smallest they've been since 2005.
Gold saw its worst drop since July, and we're seeing mixed earnings among companies with Amazon and Tesla looking strong but Microsoft looking disappointing. Brent, meanwhile, rallied over Middle East concerns.
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Beijing to join Harry, Ed, and Will. The team dive into key market developments over the past week, including movements in the Chinese economy and updates on Chinese demand forecasts. They also explore how people will be trading as we enter US election week - and what the risks are. Finally, they look at geopolitical risk, including the current situation between North Korea and South Korea.
In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies - from fluctuating geopolitical risk, to upcoming OPEC decisions, an uptick in physical demand, and more.
Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Matt Aspin, Onyx Graduate Recruitment Lead, for a special episode of the CEO's Address to explore the generational shift in the industry - and within Onyx - as new graduates join.
Matt gives insight into the evolution of the graduate job market, from pre-pandemic to current day. He and Greg discuss what Onyx looks for when hiring graduates, and the unique opportunities Onyx provides - given they fit the rigorous culture and company mission. However, not just one type of person succeeds at Onyx; Matt and Greg analyse what qualities have made employees successful and which qualities Matt looks for in candidates.
In terms of a new generation entering the industry, Greg and Matt give their observations and opinions on "Gen Z" stereotypes in the work force. Given the major technological shifts in recent years, they touch upon the desire for technologically-literate trading candidates and how trading roles will expand in the near future.
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 29th October, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the week that was and the week to come in the oil market.
In this week's episode, Harry, Mita and Vincent discuss recent disruption in the oil market due to Israel's strike on Iran over the weekend. They analyse how Israel conducted the aerial strike - and what this means for the wider geopolitical situation and its impact on the market.
With the market's focus returning to macroeconomics, the team discuss recent developments concerning the world's largest economies - China and the US, and their implications for oil demand and prices. Mita dives into the product of the week: high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), where the front-month crack recently reached all-time highs. Finally, Mita, Vincent and Harry give their Brent forecasts for the remainder of Q4 and discuss what they'll be looking out for in the coming week.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
Join us LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd for Macro Mondays.
On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. Oil prices have seen a significant drop off following Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian defense systems.
The US 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.25%, marking the housing market’s most unaffordable level since the mid-1980s. This coincides with bonds now offering higher yields than stocks, a rarity not seen in 22 years.
James and James dive into the complexities of the US election, exploring the potential economic impacts of a "Trump trade" scenario. Betting markets suggest a 62% chance of Trump winning, which could lead to increased tariffs and reduced Fed independence, driving inflation upwards to as much as 9.3% by 2026 (according to projections from the Peterson Institute for International Economics). We'll keep a close eye on these developments as we near election week.
The Eurozone, meanwhile, is facing weak manufacturing and service PMIs - especially in France and Germany. Dovish comments from ECB officials underscore concerns over stagnation in the German economy, with hints at future rate cuts. In Asia, Japan’s ruling party has lost its majority, and the IMF anticipates that the Bank of Japan will gradually raise rates, while China deals with record local debt defaults amid demographic challenges and trade uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs.
The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market.
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, and Will dive into key market developments affecting energy, commodities, and the broader global economy. They discuss the recent volatility in the Dated Brent benchmark following the inclusion of WTI, and how this shift is creating discrepancies between physical and futures markets. They also explore concerns raised by Saudi officials about oil price trends and the disconnect between different market indicators - highlighting the persistence of volatility.
The team addresses U.S. politics and the impact of the upcoming election, particularly the potential economic consequences of a Trump victory. Jorge, Ed and Will also discuss the impacts of record-breaking debt levels, surging gold prices, and investor sentiment in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape. Wrapping up, they touch on the challenges faced by refineries, the potential for increased oil exports from China, and what's going on in benchmarking.
In this episode of Oil Insights, Martha Dowding hosts and is joined by fellow Research Associate, Mita Chaturvedi to analyse recent movements in oil prices, with a focus on Brent crude, (trading at $75/bbl at time of recording). Martha and Mita discuss three primary factors influencing prices at the moment: the potential for geopolitical flare-ups, investor positioning based on Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and expectations for a soft landing in the US economy. These factors are shaping market sentiment and driving volatility as the week progresses.
Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including a possible Israeli strike on Iranian military assets, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.
Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tension - particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including the extent of the future Israeli strike on Iran, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.
Geopolitical #Risk #speculativeshift #Israel #Iran #Military #Oil #oott #oilmarkets
On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. The U.S. housing market faces steep challenges as mortgage applications drop by 17%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.25% - the highest since July. Across the Atlantic, UK house prices show slower growth at 0.3% month-on-month.
They also cover key updates from the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasising that rate cuts are not imminent despite a strong labour market and declining inflation.
In China, the government moves to double its loans for unfinished properties to $562 billion in efforts to stabilise the housing sector, while liquidity measures and interbank rates signal ongoing stress in the financial system. With China’s credit growth slowing, they explore what this means for global investors.
As the U.S. election draws closer, they examine Trump’s growing lead in prediction markets and discuss the impact on the financial landscape as well as Elon Musk's controversial support for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
Finally, tune in for insights into the crypto market as Bitcoin trends higher but faces resistance at $71,800 and $73,800.
In this episode of Oil Insights, host Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Onyx Research Associates Vincent Wu and Martha Dowding to discuss how recent geopolitical developments have influenced the oil market. Following the October 1 missile attacks on Israel by Iran, the market is closely monitoring Israel's potential response, with Brent prices fluctuating between $73 and $80 per barrel.
The discussion also covers the latest positioning data, highlighting how money managers are taking cautious positions on Brent. A significant impact was felt when a Washington Post article reported that Israel may target military sites in Iran, not its oil or nuclear infrastructure, suggesting geopolitical uncertainty could keep oil prices volatile.
In addition, the team explore the macroeconomic headwinds from China’s economic situation and stimulus measures, shedding light on how they may affect oil prices and demand. Harry, Martha and Vincent revisit their previous prediction about Brent's trading range, noting that it remains consistent within the $70s but could shift depending on developments in the Middle East and China.
The team delve into product markets, focusing on Naphtha trends and regional differences in pricing, particularly between Asia and Europe, as they analyse the implications of gasoline demand and petrochemical sector activity.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome | This week in the oil markets
5:11 Brent Futures
12:47 "Crystal ball moment" - Where will Brent be trading by the end of the year?
20:46 Product of the week: Naphtha
28:00 What we’ll be watching this week | Concluding remarks
Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies in the oil sector. While the market has been relatively quiet but volatile, with crude oil prices settling in the high 70s per barrel, there is speculation around geopolitical risks - such as potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of increased crude production in Libya. Manny points out that a sell-off in a specific part of the market curve, mainly due to excess supply and hesitant refiners, has led to a bearish outlook. She cautions about the potential bear traps, stressing that traders need to stay cautious when the market is unpredictable.
Financial traders are heavily short, anticipating continued bearish fundamentals. Meanwhile, physical traders face an oversupply situation, leading to aggressive selling. The market dynamics show herd mentality, where traders follow each other, causing rapid price movements without substantial trading activity. Jonah compares this scenario to past market behaviours in credit and crypto markets, emphasising that the current range-bound state has pushed momentum traders into uncertain territory. Despite the bearish sentiment, they suggest that a small event - like a refiner stepping in - could cause a swift price rebound, advising caution.
oott #geoplitcalrisk #oilandgas #Israel #Iran #MiddleEast #Oilmarkets #bearish #beartrap #straightofHormuz
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This week, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest developments in the global economy, inflation, and U.S. politics. They begin by exploring weak Chinese economic data and discuss how China's worsening deflationary environment and a disappointing stimulus package announcement could impact global markets.
They break down the latest U.S. inflation figures, with the CPI falling to 2.4% YoY but exceeding expectations. They also analyse insights from the recent FED minutes and comments from Goldman Sachs, discussing the Fed’s outlook on inflation and the rate cut trajectory priced by the OIS and bond markets.
James Brodie and James Todd address the oil market's high volatility, fuelled by rising Middle East tensions and the Pentagon’s recent announcement of military support for Israel against Iranian threats.
In the second half of the episode, Onyx Head of Recruitment, Matt Aspin, joins to provide insights into the upcoming U.S. election. Matt delves into the latest polls and betting odds, revealing a tight race, with Harris leading in polls but Trump ahead in betting odds. Matt draws comparisons to the 2016 election and assesses the accuracy of these predictions and what they could mean for the 2024 race.
For a special episode of Oil Insights, Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Paul Horsnell, Managing Director and Head of Commodity Research at Standard Chartered. Paul is a veteran of oil market analysis, and his views are widely sought-after when it comes to gaining insights into the turbulent world of oil market dynamics. Paul previously occupied similar functions at Barclays, JP Morgan, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
This episode of Oil Insights focuses on the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Iranian strikes on Israel on 1 October and why this time, it is different. Harry and Paul explore how these developments have shifted market attention away from oil fundamentals, notably from oil demand growth views this year and next. The episode further explores what options are available to OPEC+ when plotting their next move regarding supply policy and returning barrels to market. Within non-OPEC+ countries, we discuss US oil supply and growth prospects for US shale as the sector has seen a considerable transformation since the days of ‘drill, baby drill’.
We would be remiss if we did not discuss where oil prices are headed in the current volatile environment, so we also peer into the crystal ball to see where Brent might be headed next.
In today's episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, Ed and Will discuss geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving Israel, Iran, and other regional players, as well as the broader economic landscape and its effects on oil prices.
Jorge recounts his recent travels to the region, noting observations of missile attacks and the vulnerability of Israeli defences. Jorge emphasises the strategic restraint by Israel, likely influenced by the U.S. due to upcoming elections and broader regional stability concerns.
The Officials also discuss the fait of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil supply, could lead to severe economic disruptions impacting not only Middle Eastern countries but also major consumers like China and India. While geopolitical risks are elevating oil prices, without further escalation, prices may stabilise or even drop.
The team also addresses global economic dynamics, such as China's recent monetary policy interventions aimed at stabilising markets.
Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Mirko Ivanda, Co-Head of Power & Gas from the Onyx Switzerland office, for a special episode of the CEO’s Address. Together, they explore the intricate dynamics of power trading, focusing on how geopolitics fundamentally shapes supply and demand as well as the end-cost of our household energy bills.
Mirko provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution of gas trading in Europe, shedding light on why Europe continues to receive gas from Russia through Ukraine, even amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Greg and Mirko have an open conversation on why gas, unlike oil, faces different sanctions — particularly when originating from Russia — and the implications for Europe's current energy landscape.
The discussion emphasizes the critical role of energy consumption in the global economy, with Greg and Mirko delving into how geopolitics and domestic policies are crucial determinants of the final cost reflected in our energy bills.
The week started with weak data, with global manufacturing PMIs contracting for the third straight month in September and with new orders dropping globally at the fastest rate in 11 months. But then services PMIs data surged higher, with the U.S. data at 54.9 (est 51.7) an 8-sigma beat.
On Friday, payrolls unexpectedly surged +254K, way above expectations and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Despite being fuelled by 785k government jobs, U.S. yields surged along with the dollar. The 2 year yield had its largest weekly gain in 2 years, and USDJPY its biggest weekly gain in 15 years.
European data on the other hand continues to weaken and with Eurozone inflation now at 1.8% (below the ECBs 2% target) expect more aggressive rate cuts in Europe, and a weaker EURUSD. With Middle East tensions rising, and China back from Golden week holidays expect more volatility this week.
Uncertainty in the middle east has led to a an increase in risk premiums and rises in crude oil prices. As costs of inputs increase the average consumer's struggles will likely increase.
Key data releases this week are:
Earnings week
Wednesday- FED minutes, 10-yr bond auction
Thursday - US CPI (est 2.3%), German retail sales
Friday - U.S. PPI, consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP, Canada payrolls
Jorge is live from Dubai and discussing Iran's attack on Israel with locals. The attack against Israel came as no surprise. Talking to the people in Dubai, they feel Iran was very measured in their actions, going after military assets - not civilians - and the general feeling is that Israel is the wild-card.
The question on people's lips right now is: What will happen next? Prior to the attack, the oil market was within touching distance of the upper-60s and, with the news of the attack, rose to the mid-70s. While oil prices had a very strong reaction to the attack, with flat-price Brent rallying all the way up to $76/bbl, after the EIA release, there was a bearish response in price action, but geopolitics are still in the driver's seat, with Brent settling into the mid-70s.
Jorge, Will and Edward weigh in on the events in the Middle East, weak economic data and what two of the most important straits to move oil in the world coming under threat of closure, will mean for the oil market.
This episode was recorded at 4pm BST on 3rd October, 2024.
macro #macronews #finance #inflation #deflation #stockmarket #stocks #oott #commodities #oilandgas #oil #trading #markets #marketanalysis #derivatives #derivativestrading #economy #economics #iran #israel #middleeast #middleeastconflict
After the Brent front-month December contract started the day (UK time) testing the $70/bbl handle - seemingly ignoring tension in the Middle East - the market's flipped. The contract is trading above $73/bbl at time of filming after a Tweet led to a headline that an Iran strike on Israel may be imminent. Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian gives his assessment of the situation.
Will we see more headlines like this? Will Brent continue to go up? Time will tell, but one thing's clear: One headline can make all the difference.
The market is falling out of bed this morning!
Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian analyses the current market, with the Brent front-month December contract testing the $70/bbl handle, the market seemingly disregarding tension in the Middle East, participants going net short based on macro developments in China, and more factors.
What direction will Brent go as the day continues? Stay tuned for updates!
Last week, there was a string of aggressive stiumulus annouunced in China. Existing mortgage loan rates cut, 7-day reverse repo rate dropped by 20bps, minimum downpayment requirement for second homes falling to 15%. Simultaenously China announced it will allow securities firms, funds and insurers to tap PBOC funds to buy stocks. We have seen the CSI 300 stock index rally significantly accordingly... but will this strength last, and is it representative of a strong Chinese economy? The Answer: No! Follow along as we discuss this and more.
In Europe we have seen rate cuts in several non Euro nations - whilst HSBC are forecasting continued rate cuts from the ECB. US Data is mixed as we see the reaction to the FED's 50bp cut unfold - mortgage applications have increased & US stocks' strength continues. However employment data indicates that everything is not well.
S&P & Gold's momentum remain strong as Gold continues to exceed previous all-time highs. Brodie and Todd also discuss the ongoing events in the Middle-East & the impact on macroeconomics, EURJPY, Bitcoin's progress, and more.
Key data releases this week:
Monday: Chicago PMI, FEDs Powell speaks
Tuesday: U.S. ISM mfg PMI, JOLTS
Wednesday: ADP payrolls
Thursday: ISM services PMI
Friday: U.S. payrolls jobs report
Jorge is back from Asia, and his findings from Singapore, China and Vietnam are stark. Building construction and industrial demand has slowed down significantly. The slow-down in China is serious, and the West is yet to see and understand the enormity of the change.
The noise on the streets of Shanghai is no longer the sound of motor engines, but just tyres on the road, as around 70% of the cars in the roads in China are now EV's - which has led to a complete down turn in gasoline demand.
With an already short market hitting $69/bbl last week, we must ask, how much shorter can the market get? Secondly, how will OPEC+ manage supply when the demand growth in Asia just isn't there?
Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Analysts Will Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett delve into the future of gasoline demand in Asia and what this means for the market.
A note from Jorge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ
The End (Song by The Doors)
This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end
I'll never look into your eyes again
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 25th September, 2024 at 10am BST. Onyx Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi and Research Associate Martha Dowding join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the week that was and the week to come in the oil market.
In this week's episode, Harry Mita and Martha unpack recent price movements in Brent and the tumultuous couple of weeks since the APPEC meeting in Singapore and the Fed's decision on rate cuts. As we continue to see Brent settle in the low-to-mid-$70/bbl range, the team discuss their personal bullish - or bearish - outlooks. They also take a look at CTA and managed-by-money positions.
This week's product of interest is gasoline; Harry and Martha analyse what's been driving the sell-off in cracks, regional contrasts, how Cal25 is shaping up, and more.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced a hawkish 50bp cut, with Jerome Powell stating the US economy is strong after data beat expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate surpassed the 36-month average - reaching levels previously seen during economic recession - and US home sales fell to their second-lowest level in 14 years.
In Europe, the German economic data is looking woeful and continues to fall, with chances of a technical recession increasing. Poland, however, is seeing strength as GDP per capita soars. In Asia, China's Tier-1 City Property Index is 28% off its highs, and Singapore and Taiwan's electronic exports are surging.
S&P and gold are at all-time highs. Brodie and Todd also discuss bearish diesel, AUDNZD yields, USDJPY, and more.
Key data releases this week:
Monday- U.S. flash PMIs
Tuesday - U.S. consumer confidence, RBA rate decision
Thursday - Core PCE inflation
Friday - BOJ rate decision, UK & Cad retail sales
Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, James Anderson joins Group CEO Greg Newman to discuss the oil market’s significant reset, with crude futures prices dropping by approximately $10/bbl over the past few weeks.
Greg and James debate the collective sentiment within the oil industry, noting how many traders follow the herd, seeking comfort in the analyses of research houses and banks. This creates a battle for narrative dominance—who will be the market's lead forecaster?
The recent sell-off raises important questions: how much of it was driven by macroeconomic factors versus a shifting outlook within the industry?
The year started with bullish sentiment toward Q3, with summer flat prices and gasoline being key trades. However, forecasts have since shifted, with weakening demand now projected for 2025. This divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks has been accompanied by weakness in the Cal 25 spreads, raising questions about the market's consensus view for next year.
All Chinese data is coming out weaker than expected, with unemployment rising to 5.3% and the economy entrenched in deflation with the GDP deflator declining for its fifth consecutive quarter. The Chinese CS300 equity index is trading at it's lowest level since 2019, and property shares have declined by over 90% in just 4 years.
James Brodie and James Todd focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting; will they cut 25bp or 50bp? They also investigate the betting odds for Trump and Harris in regard to the upcoming election, and also discuss the weak sentiment for U.S. small business. A NFIB small business survey showed the second-lowest reading since 1985, where only the GFC was worse.
Onto commodities, gold made an all-time high, reaching $2,466. Meanwhile, USDJPY and the U.S. 2-year bond yield make new cycle lows.
Key data releases this week:
Monday- NY Empire manufacturing data
Tuesday - U.S. retail sales, Cad inflation
Wednesday - U.S. Fed FOMC rate decision
Thursday - Aussie employment, BOE rate decision
Friday - BOJ rate decision, UK & Cad retail sales
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 10th September, 2024 at 11am BST. Research Associate Vincent Wu guest hosts alongside Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi as Harry Tchilinguirian attends APPEC in Singapore.
In this week's episode of Oil Insights, Vincent and Mita delve into the current state of the oil market and discuss the potential for a significant price reversal given the ultra-short positioning by money managers, including CTAs. Amid prevailing economic uncertainty, sluggish Chinese demand and the anticipation of additional OPEC+ barrels, bulls seem to have given up as the market accepts a lower flat price environment.
The team discusses OPEC+ strategy as of late, alongside the downgrading of forecasts by trade houses and Wall Street banks, and more. They also focus on the LPG market as this week's featured product. Mita explains how shifting to winter specification gasoline blending has injected new support into butane, while international propane saw a standout performance this week despite a bearish futures market.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
James and Will discuss weak U.S. ISM manufacturing. New orders fell to 44.6 points from 47.4 in July, experiencing contraction for the 3rd straight month. The prices paid index jumped to 54.0 points from 52.9 in July, expanding for the 8th month in a row. Inventories unexpectedly surged the most in the past decade.
There’s weak employment data out of the U.S. with just 142k jobs created in August. Full-time work is rapidly decreasing (-438k), while part-time work is up (+527k). An All-Time High (464,000) Americans are now working 2 full-time jobs.
German IP is now 9.5% below February 202, Nvidia has dropped 28% since its peak and New Zealand house prices fall for the sixth consecutive month.
Key data releases this week are:
Tuesday - U.K. employment, IP, monthly GDP
Wednesday - U.S. CPI
Thursday - U.S. PPI, ECB rate decision (25bp cut fully expected)
Friday - U.S. consumer confidence, Chinese money supply
Group CEO Greg Newman discusses the challenges and evolving landscape of the oil derivatives market. He highlights the central role of exchanges in price discovery and liquidity, noting that these exchanges have become the heartbeat of the market.
Greg also reflects on the historical dominance of Western financial centres in oil trading but suggests that the future may shift towards other regions, particularly the East. He cites the example of ADNOC's Murban contract and recent moves by Saudi Arabia's Tadawul to acquire Dubai Mercantile Exchange, signalling a broader trend of diversification away from Western dominance.
Greg also emphasizes the rising influence of retail investors, particularly in Eastern markets like China, where retail trading has driven significant liquidity growth. He mentions Onyx's strategic initiatives, including a deal with the Jakarta Exchange, to tap into this retail-driven momentum. Greg predicts a seismic shift in the oil derivatives market, with Eastern exchanges and retail investors playing a central role in its future expansion. The market, which could reach $145 trillion by 2027, is poised for radical transformation, driven by the growing importance of retail participation and the emergence of new global trading hubs.
Following the announcement of Onyx Capital Group's expansion into Retail Trading through the launch of Onyx Markets, Group CEO Greg Newman sits down with Director of Retail Trading, Andrea Rebusco, to discuss this significant milestone. This move is poised to transform the oil market, driving forward digitization, democratization, and scaling.
The time has come to open this market to everyone. Retail investors have long been marginalized and excluded from the contracts that shape the prices of essential oil products, which power the global economy. Onyx Markets aims to change that.
Andrea Rebusco, who brings extensive experience from Money farm and IG, has played a key role in realizing this vision and will continue to lead Onyx Markets into the future.
In their discussion, Greg and Andrea explore the target audience for Onyx Markets, how users will be educated, and what sets Onyx apart in the Retail Trading space. We welcome any additional questions or comments.
If you would like to sign up for further information, please click here: [typeform link]
For a special episode of Oil Insights, Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research, is joined by Dr Michal Meidan, Head of China Energy Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, for a special edition of our podcast today focused on China.
In this episode, Harry and Michal explore China's oil demand outlook as institutional forecasters, including the IEA and OPEC, alongside prominent Wall Street banks, downgrade their views. They discuss how weak macroeconomic data, coupled with challenges in government policy stimulus, cast doubts on China's ability to achieve its targets and deliver on oil demand growth.
Harry and Michal review oil product demand in China, particularly how the shift towards electric vehicles affects gasoline demand. Naphtha and propane demand from the petrochemical sector are also discussed in the context of weakening margins. Finally, substitution toward natural gas is also examined to see how it affects the diesel outlook. Join Harry as he delves into these pressing issues with Dr Michal Meidan, as China's oil demand performance will have important implications for the global oil balance at a time when the OPEC+ group is pondering adding more oil to the market.
China saw its weakest manufacturing PMI data since February this week, with a fourth consecutive contraction. In the US, PCE inflation data came in below expectations, while Q2 GDP and consumer confidence came in higher. The Q2 GDP data is very backward looking, and this week’s U.S. PMIs and employment data are of critical importance - particularly with the next Federal Reserve central bank meeting on 18th September.
The Fed seems dovish, key data shows manufacturing and employment slumping, and private sector job creation has plunged to six-year lows while government jobs surge to all-time highs. Housing data also looks poor in both the US and China.
In equities, there's been a sharp increase in net short positions in the S&P 500, and Indian stocks are up for a record 13th straight day. UK shop prices are now in deflation, and German GDP has officially barely risen in six years. Hedge funds are bullish on gold, and coffee is reaching an all-time high. The team also discusses Central Bank OIS pricing, USDJPY, Brent, Nvidia, and more.
The key data releases this week are:
Tuesday:
-U.S. ISM mfg. PMI
Wednesday:
-JOLTS job openings
-Fed Beige book
-BOC rate decision
Thursday:
-Jobless claims
-ADP employment
-U.S. ISM services PMI
Friday:
-U.S. jobs report
In the latest episode of The Officials, special guest Michal Meidan, Director, China Energy Programme at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies joins Jorge Montepeque, Harry Tchilinguirian, Vincent Wu and new Official Edward Hayden-Briffett to discuss China’s impact on the financial energy market and demand.
The picture isn’t pretty for China at the moment. Sentiment is weak and it’s been a difficult year for the economy, with real estate downturn and expenditure down as well. The east is also seeing fundamental changes to the structural economy such as the growth of EV’s and robots. The Officials discuss where China’s supply and demand for energy products could go next.
We hope you enjoy our seventh episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today.
To read the latest report by The Officials, click here; https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-asia-29-08-24/
Welcome to the third episode of Oil Insights, hosted by Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx, alongside co-hosts Mita Chaturvedi and Martha Dowding.
Despite the vanishing trading volumes amid the holiday in the UK, it has been anything but a quiet beginning to this week, with the front month Brent futures contract firming to an intraday high of $81.50 on Monday. Tensions in the Middle East, dovish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and tensions surrounding Libya's crude oil production have all engulfed the oil market.
Dated Brent also found strength, with the front-month DFL rallying to $1.40/bbl. However, CFTC data for the week ending 20 Aug showed money managers remaining bearish. Coupling this with Onyx's CTA positions trending towards max net short, this prompted the question: Are the bears still lurking despite this newfound bullishness? The price action on Brent futures on Tuesday would tend to suggest so, with the soon-to-expire front-month October contract down by over 2% by 6 pm BST.
The bullish sentiment was also seen in fuel oil. Singapore VLSFO cracks have seen remarkable performance, driven by factors such as increased bunker fuel demand, buying in the physical window, and depleting inventories. However, as open interest continues to skyrocket, one questions whether saturation has hit too close to the sun.
Going forward, we'll keep our eye on the upcoming October Brent futures expiry. The Oct'24 and Nov'24 futures flat price contracts are currently around $1 within each other, and whether the expiry causes a roll up or a roll down in the new prompt will be one to watch. Finally, to add to the uncertainty, OPEC+ has been....quiet lately. Are we currently in the calm before an OPEC-news driven storm?
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment. You can also watch this podcast on the World of Oil Derivatives YouTube channel.
Please note, this episode was recorded on Friday 23rd August at 17.00.
Macro Specialist James Brodie and Trader, Director James Todd delve into Powell's Jackson Hole testimony, the weak manufacturing PMI globally and UK inflation below expectations. They also take a look at inflation within the UK and the soft prices we've been seeing in crude oil over the past week.
James Brodie and James Todd look into the OIS pricing to see what's priced by the central banks in the forthcoming central bank meetings and also look at the week ahead, including; key markets, trends, charts and risks.
Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole testimony that came out on Friday, basically said, he was dovish, however, he made it clear that the Fed would be data dependent. We expected exactly this because the OIS is pricing between 25 and 50 basis points of cuts at the September meeting, giving the Feds a month to watch the data. Although Powell clearly didn't want to have to paint them into a corner 25 or 50 this far in advance. He said. We do not seek or welcome further labour market cooling, so they're clearly, quite concerned about employment.
The key data to look out for this week is;
Tuesday; U.S. consumer confidence, German GDP
Wednesday; FOMC minutes
Thursday; Euro area CPI, US Q2 GDP update, jobless claims
Friday; U.S. Uni Michigan consumer confidence
jacksonhole #Testimony #Powell #PMI #Fed #employment #UK employment #macroeconomics
There are a few issues to discuss on the sixth episode of The Officials, the main one being that the oil markets have been correcting. If you've been reading The Officials, you will have seen that the team have taken a negative stance on the global economy and the oil markets.
The Officials discuss the state of China, where data is showing indicators are quite negative, but what is attracting the interest of the team are results by Western companies for the first half of the year, where we're seeing many CEO's recently left their businesses and industries entirely. The indicators, in The Officials opinion, conclude that China is weak, perhaps even contracting.
To read the latest report by The Officials, click here; https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-dubai-holds-up-just-dont-look-at-the-asian-macros/
We hope you enjoy our sixth episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Harry Tchilinguirian, Vincent Wu and Will Cunliffe.
Last week Greg discussed the role of hedge funds and their impact on oil markets in the past year. There has been plenty of hearsay and gossip from within the industry in response to the publishing arm of Onyx Capital Group, namely, The Officials.
Host of The Officials and Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque, joins Group CEO Greg Newman to explain why pushing for greater transparency sparks an old style backlash. For the avoidance of doubt, it's important to note, Onyx Capital Group has autonomously-ran subsidiaries and departments, one of which is a Publisher, which is entirely independent of the trading arm.
Evidently, there are a few bad actors who didn’t appreciate the transparency our media displays regarding the inner workings of the industry. We received increased scrutiny regarding our transparency on how the oil swap benchmarks are priced. The latest incident was the largest of the PRAs, Platts, contacting Onyx Capital Group directly to complain about these reports, whilst failing to specify which reports or podcasts when asked to do so. This is a legacy or knee jerk industry move. All of Onyx Capital Group's reporting is based on facts, using publicly available information and by exercising freedom of expression.
On this episode, Greg digs deeper into this tension, and discusses the challenges of bringing transparency in oil derivative markets to the surface. Jorge Montepeque, the man who built the Platts indices that oil swap contracts price against – and who now runs The Officials at Onyx Capital Advisory joins him. Jorge is no stranger to receiving backlash, bullying and threats from a few bad apples in the oil market and he joins Greg to explain why.
oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #news #economics #finance #markets #marketanalysis #derivativestrading
Welcome to the second episode of Oil Insights, hosted by Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx, alongside co-hosts Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu, Research Associates at Onyx.
The oil market started last week on a strong note, only to finish on a whimper trading sub-80s last Friday. Geopolitics early last week did help uplift prices, with fund positioning ready to add some more risk. But geopolitical premia seemed to deflate as diplomatic efforts were stepped up to try to secure a cease-fire in Gaza.
The positive economic news from the US, such as strong retail sales, provided some optimism, but the main focus remained on China's weak economic data. China's industrial production, retail sales, in fixed investment were disappointing, alongside weaker crude runs and oil imports. US oil data from the EIA also showed an unexpected crude stock build, further pressuring oil prices.
Brent remained stable, with no significant signs of change in supply. China reduced gasoline and diesel exports in July, and its refineries are likely to operate below expectations due to weak demand and export constraints. The future of crude demand in China and Asia is crucial, especially with OPEC+ potentially increasing supply in Q4. Refining margins are also struggling, particularly with gasoline and diesel.
As for swap market pricing, the DFL still remains quite strong, although slightly weak compared to this time, last week. It’s seen a combination of short-covering rally as well as, Trade Houses and Majors buying in the physical window, which drove up physical differentials indicating demand in the spot market in the near term.
Middle distillates have been interesting this week, with gasoil pressured due to the poor economic picture, seeing a poor economic picture across China, the United States, Europe and especially Germany, with extremely weak PMI data and industrial production.
RBNZ cut rates 25bp in a largely unexpected move. Meanwhile, there's some weak data out of the U.S.: Core goods CPI has plunged even further into deflation (-1.9% YoY), with PPI and industrial production also weak. On the other hand, U.S. retail sales are up and initial jobless claims are down.
Euro area industrial production has fallen 0.1%MoM and 0.5% - BBG.
In the U.S., Chapter 11 filings are the highest they've been in a decade; home buyers' sentiment has dropped to record lows; and inventory levels have hit the highest level since 2008.
James and James also address mixed data out of China, challenges in the iron ore market; a 0.5% MoM increase in UK retail sales; Bitcoin; gold; USDJPY and more.
The key data releases this week are:
Wednesday - FOMC minutes
Thursday - U.S. Euro area & UK PMI's, U.S. jobless claims
Friday - Chair Powell's Jackson Hols speech, Japan CPI
The Officials are back to discuss the latest market developments in the past week. You can also read The Officials latest report What goes up must come down, says wise ops guy here; https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-what-goes-up-must-come-down-says-wise-ops-guy/
This week, the API showed crude inventories going up by 5.2/million bbl. Upon the APIs release, there was almost no reaction in flat price to the huge inventory drop. As the market received this 'bullish' inventory data the market did nothing at all. Jorge asks, was that the right decision or the wrong decision? But then the EIA released data showing a 'bearish' 1.36 million bbl increase, and then the market fell by 30 cts in two minutes. So, what is the data to trust? Who from and when?
But other data is equally conflictive and companies are making important decisions on data that seems faulty.
We hope you enjoy our fourth episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque, the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Vincent Wu and Will Cunliffe.
Jorge Montepeque https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Vincent Wu https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Will Cuncliffe https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/
The Officials are back to discuss the latest market developments in the past week. You can also read The Officials latest report What goes up must come down, says wise ops guy here; https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-what-goes-up-must-come-down-says-wise-ops-guy/
This week, the API showed crude inventories going up by 5.2/million bbl. Upon the APIs release, there was almost no reaction in flat price to the huge inventory drop. As the market received this 'bullish' inventory data the market did nothing at all. Jorge asks, was that the right decision or the wrong decision? But then the EIA released data showing a 'bearish' 1.36 million bbl increase, and then the market fell by 30 cts in two minutes. So, what is the data to trust? Who from and when?
But other data is equally conflictive and companies are making important decisions on data that seems faulty.
We hope you enjoy our fourth episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque, the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Vincent Wu and Will Cunliffe.
If you would like to connect with them on LinkedIn, please click on the links below:
Jorge Montepeque https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Vincent Wu https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Will Cuncliffe https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/
Greg Newman, Group Chief Executive of Onyx Capital Group, launches the new podcast, CEO Breakdown.
In today's episode, Greg dives into the myriad of changes happening at Onyx right now - including gearing up for the launch of Onyx Markets to provide retail investors with transparent access to the oil swaps market , as well as more educational resources through new Onyx shows and podcasts.
He delves into the intricacies of the oil industry, from market infrastructure and regulation to industry trends and challenges.
If you’d like to get involved with the podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
You can connect with Greg on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #news #economics #finance #markets #marketanalysis #derivativestrading
Welcome to the pilot episode of Oil Insights, hosted by Harry Tchilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx, alongside co-hosts Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu, Research Associates at Onyx.
The oil market has been on a wild ride in the past week and change, selling off violently amidst unwinds in other classes, notably FX and the Yen carry trade. The risk-off mood across risky assets did, however, stabilise, with oil back above $80/bbl. The VIX index, the volatility indicator of the S&P 500, a measure of nervousness, has retraced more than half of its spike of 5 August, indicating some of the jitters of last week have subsided, even as more position unwinds are expected, albeit smaller in amount now.
Onyx's CTA net positioning model indicates that short positions have potentially ‘bottomed out,’ signalling a return to an uptrend. CFTC data highlights that short positions remain exceedingly high in Brent futures, with shorts increasing at the fastest pace since the post-OPEC meeting. The long-to-short ratio in Brent is currently at 1.09:1.00, placing it in the 1st percentile—a level not seen since March 2020.
Additionally, we’re observing significant refiner selling across September, October, and the September/October DFL period, with fund selling in August/September DFL. In the CFD market, our data suggests that last week’s buying flows have transitioned into selling. While September’s structure has been well supported, the rally may have peaked at these levels, leading to profit-taking flows.
Rather than delving into a single story for our Googling Oil segment, the research team focuses on a prevailing theme in the oil market: the growing mention of Iran in numerous articles, driven by resurgent geopolitical tensions.
Over the weekend, Iran reiterated its intention to retaliate against Israel amidst a buildup of US military assets in the Middle East, including F22 fighter jets and a submarine equipped with guided missiles. As Martha explains, the last time we witnessed a similar scenario was in mid-April. During that period, we observed a range-bound price action lift leading up to an attack, a two-week delay and then a relaxing in crude futures.
This week's most interesting product is gasoline, with the summer driving season entering its final weeks. The weekly US data may underestimate demand, but the money managers are extremely short. The market seems vulnerably short, but will there be a spark to drive it higher?
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment and subscribe to our YouTube channel, the World of Oil Derivatives.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
0:54 This week in the oil market
3:29 Brent Futures
8:26 "Googling oil:" world oil news
20:31 Product of the week: gasoline
27:27 Concluding remarks
Macro Specialist James Brodie and Direct Trader James Todd weigh in on the macro markets’ moves over the past week on the back of the data released last week including central bank rate hikes and cuts, U.S. ISM manufacturing and serviced data and U.S. employment data.
U.S. employment data was weak, with only 114000 jobs created in July and unemployment sitting at 4.3%.
Japan also had its biggest crash in stocks since Black Monday of 1987 with the repercussions of this affecting the Korean market as well.
Looking to commodities; Copper is trading at its lowest level since March, with Hedge Funds having their biggest net-short position on commodities in 13 years and Gold support at 2,380 and resistance at 2,468.
James and James discuss the recent sharp sell-off of Bitcoin and China heading into deflation.
The key data to look out for this week is;
Tuesday; US PPI, Japan CPI & PPI, UK wage growth
Wednesday; US CPI
Thursday; US jobless claims, Philly Fed, retail sales, Japan GDP, UK GDP
Friday; US consumer sentiment, UK retail sales
Bitcoin #Japan #Japanesestock #stockcrash #Korea #unemployment #employment #macro #macronews #finance #SP500 #inflation #deflation
It's been a very serious week. Japan had a major collapse on Monday, with Nikkei coming off by 12% overnight - which has been the worst day of index since 1987. The Nikkei moved into a loss position after significant gains this year. The outlook wasn't good for Japan, and this extended into Korea, who remained tight-lipped about their trading books and personal holdings.
The Officials discuss the reason for the collapse and its subsequent effect on the market.
You can read The Officials latest published report here: https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-what-da-fish-is-going-on/
We hope you enjoy our fourth episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque, the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Harry Tchilinguirian, Harinder Sandhu and Will Cunliffe.
In this episode of the Onyx Leadership Series, Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian discusses lessons from throughout his career, the evolution of oil analysis, Onyx's future, and more.
Extend your analysis of oil derivatives with OTC oil swaps insights and enhance predictive accuracy using Onyx’s new Commitment of Traders Market Positioning Dataset.
You can watch more Onyx Leadership Series podcasts here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk7gPO6iMwPPlHVSXp09iLLN
Join us for the third episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today, with guest speakers Harry Tchilinguirian, Vincent Wu and Will Cunliffe.
The link to our latest publication of The Officials, can be found here: https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-geopolitics-vs-economics/
Last week, we were caught in a very bearish week in the market, and the Officials predicted we would most likely hit $75/bbl and $78/bbl…. And we did, within days.
The reason we were mostly bearish last week was down to global macros, which waded down the market heavily, hitting serious lows of $78/bbl after an attack on the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
What the Officials are observing is the market is reacting quickly and strongly to Macro economic data. Jorge Harry, Will and Vincent analyse why.
oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #IsmailHaniyeh #Hamas #attack #Tehran
After working as a performance psychologist for Premier League players, F1 drivers, and more, Chris Gooder joins Onyx as Performance Director. Viewing trading as the closest thing in business to elite level sports, Chris talks with Group CEO Greg Newman about the behaviours, motivations, and psychological patterns common amongst successful individuals.
The two discuss the reality that people aren't machines - even if their role depends on them performing like one. That's where Chris steps in, to provide one-to-one, day-to-day support and development for Onyx Traders so they can feel and perform their best in a high-intensity environment. Tune in to hear their full conversation.
If you'd like to connect with Greg or Chris on LinkedIn, click on the links below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Chris Gooder: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-gooder-6008b9141
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
1:01 Chris' background and transition from elite sports to Onyx
12:19 Trader mentality and motivation
17:55 Benefits and dangers of success; individual vs. group dynamic
25:55 Chris' background working with F1, Arsenal, and more
29:33 What makes a successful performer & work as an escape
35:59 Setting the tone for a work environment; the importance of failure
41:55 Chris' role at Onyx; shaping Onyx culture
49:22 What makes a good trader
54:33 Closing thoughts
leadership #success #motivation #careers #advice #performance #performancepsychology #management #HR #psychology #F1 #formula1 #premierleague #football #daytrading #daytrader #trading #oott #oil #oilandgas #derivatives #derivativestrading #business #businessphilosophy #finance #businessstrategy #tech
You’ve read The Officials, now hear it.
Join us for the second episode of The Officials, a new show from the team behind Onyx’s Benchmark Publication and helmed by Jorge Montepeque the architect of benchmarks and services that shape our world today.
Find our daily Officials reports at https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/the-officials-asia-25-07-24/
oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #markets #marketanalysis #derivatives #derivativestrading
All of last week, Brent futures were comfortably trading at $85/bbl. Now (at time of recording), they're trading around $82.50/bbl. There is a definite bearish turn to the rangebound wave we were in last week. WTI has seen more bullish interest, and it's just entered negative handles in CTA data. WTI also sold off aggressively on 19th July from $81/bbl to $78/bbl. Volatility has also risen significantly for both Brent and WTI - especially in comparison to low volatility all year.
Overall, refinery margins can be summed up as not bad, but also not good. Primarily driven by the weakness in crude, gasoil cracks gapped up higher by $1 late Monday afternoon. Aug’24 gasoil cracks were up from $18.50/bbl to $19.30/bbl.
Interestingly, the market for naphtha - which is a market most suspectable to geopolitical concerns - has been strong. Butane margins have also risen significantly. The increase in profitability comes from a more significant US butane demand.
Looking to macro femands and the One to Watch; China Central Bank's actions have been interesting. China’s PBOC central bank cut rate early Monday morning 10bp across the yield curve to try and stimulate growth. Off the back of this, Greg and James discuss if deflation is something we need to be worried about in Europe this year and next.
Vincent discuses some key headlines in our Googling Oil segment, including; Russia Considers Building Oil Refinery in Cuba, Slovak PM Blasts Ukraine’s Lukoil Sanctions As Oil Flow Stops and Why Nigerians are praying for the success of a new oil refinery.
As for the Trade Idea this week, Vincent suggests going Short brent Dubai.
World of Oil Derivatives is also available on YouTube.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Introduction
0:58 Brent Futures update
05:48 Managed money discussion
7:00 Bullish banks
16:40 Refinery margin update
26:21 Macro demand
40:22 One to watch (key data)
40:50 "Googling oil:" world oil news
47:38 Trade idea
Macro Specialist James Brodie and Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic weigh in on the latest news in the presidential campaign, discussing who the Democratic Party will select as a replacement for Joe Biden as their candidate, who will likely be chosen as a running mate, how Donald Trump’s could react, and subsequently how these critical decisions may affect markets.
US June retail sales remain unchanged (0.0% m/m; est. -0.3%) while industrial production is up +0.6% m/m (est. +0.3%). Powell said yesterday “Now that inflation has come down and the labour market has indeed cooled off, we’re going to be looking at both mandates.” Looking at other US data, jobless claims are trending higher.
The Chinese central bank also unexpectedly cut key lending rates to new record lows at the July fixing to aid the country’s fragile economic recovery following weak Q2 GDP readings. In Japan, the yen continued its rally to below 157 per dollar, however, the Nikkei fell 1.16% on Monday morning to 3-week lows.
In the US, the Nasdaq had its worst day since 2022 last week, whilst the S&P 500 has now gone 350 trading days without a 2% correction (the longest since February 2007). According to GS Prime, the hedge fund de-grossing activity over the past 5 sessions is the largest in 20 months and ranks in the 99th percentile over the past 5 years.
Canadian CPI has fallen to 2.7%, with the probability of rate cuts for July 24th having now risen to 90%.
The chart of the week this week is Nvidia, with critical support at 117.80.
Key data releases this week:
Tuesday; GFK Consumer and IFO Business sentiment
Wednesday; Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI
Thursday; Q2 advance GDP (2% expected annualised)
Friday; Core PCE (est. +0.1% m/m, 2.4% y/y; prev. 2.6%)
Although the market and the narrative want to be bullish, there's no impetus for it to be there. It's a weak week in Brent futures, within in touching distance of $88/bbl. We've seen both long and short prod/merc in Brent 200mb in 2 weeks in Sep 0I. Martha also explains why bearish economic data from China is adding to the pressure of oil prices.
Greg, James, Martha and Vincent discuss Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia having to submit compensation plans for exceeding quotas in 2024. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will assess compliance on August 1, and Iraq’s management and its relationship with the KRG are crucial for OPEC+ compliance and global oil stability. While this isn't massive news just yet, there's so much lying beneath the surface of this story, which is leading to people getting nervous on the Producer side as a summer rally is yet to come to fruition.
The sentiment of extra supply is being supported by Crude loadings from Guyana, which are planned at 21 million barrels, (or 700,000bb/d) in September, according to programs seen by Bloomberg. This daily volume will be a new record, compared with a revised 613,000 b/d in August. The July volume was also revised higher to 452,000 b/d.
Looking to Macro News, there was disappointing data out of China with GDP 4.7% YoY (est 5.1%) retail sales 2.0% (est 3.3%). CPI 0.2% YoY, PPI –0.8%. House prices in China fell 4.5% YoY in June, the most in 9 years. U.S. prices 28bp cuts in September, 67bp cuts by year end. Weak CPI and the Fed is now concentrating on the weaker economy.
The team discuss Trump's impact on oil and suspect he will want to be bearish and take credit for lowering gasoline prices with a target range of between $60/bbl and $65/bbl, whilst simultaneously putting pressure on the central bank in hopes to restimulate the economy.
The trade idea for this weak is to buy heating oil. With such a heavy contango in the heating oil spreads it's a good risk reward-trade to buy. We're also seeing strong harvesting in corn and wheat, so if that continues, we'll most likely be seeing some more demand there.
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
U.S. CPI was lower than expected, (-0.1% MoM, 3.0% YoY), while U.S. PPI came in higher than expected (U.S. June producer prices rise 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.3%).
Chinese CPI was on the cusp of deflation again (CPI +0.2% YoY, PPI -0.8% YoY) and Chinese GDP and retail sales were weaker than expected (Q2 GDP 4.7% y/y estimated +5.1%).
James and Harry dive into Chinese New Homes Index data which shows new home prices falling 4.5% YoY in June 2024, the most in 9 years. This data comes despite Beijing attempting to mitigate the impact of a prolonged property downturn and weak economic recovery.
Off the back of Donald Trump’s attempted assassination on the weekend, Harry discusses the impact the event is having and will have on U.S. swing states and why the event caused a Bitcoin rally.
James Brodie’s chart of the week is Gold, which is rallying and approaching $2,430.
The key data releases this week are:
Monday 15 July – Fed Chair Powell to speak
Tuesday 16 July – U.S. June retail sales
Thursday 18 July – Philly Fed manufacturing data
Brent futures climbed towards $88 before settling around $85.50. Money managers increased their long positions in Brent for the third consecutive week, indicating bullish sentiment
European M1 refinery margins softened in the week but remained profitable at $6.40/bbl. Products saw weakness across the barrel but the upcoming hurricane season and potential disruption to US infrastructure raise questions about short-term price movements.
Dreadful US data, including a contraction in manufacturing and services PMI, raises recession fears. The upcoming Fed rate cuts, if implemented in September, may have little impact until 2025.
The team also discusses Hurricane Beryl's impact on US energy infrastructure and challenges facing the biofuels industry with stalling growth and collapsing profitability.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Chapters for this episode are:
0.42 - Brent Futures Flat Price
4.14 - Macro Economic News
7.35 - Refinery Margin change
14.45 - One to watch
28.29 - Googling Oil
35.21 - Trade Idea
39.41 - Poll
Today, macro specialist James Brodie and research analyst Harry Nedeljkovic discuss Sunday’s French legislative election second round and Thursday’s UK General Election followed by their respective impacts on global markets and geopolitics.
James and Harry also cover US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data for June, FOMC minutes, German and French industrial production, and perhaps most significantly, US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data.
The key data to look out for this week is:
Tuesday 09 July: Fed Chair Powell testifies
Wednesday 10 July: OPEC monthly report, China CPI & PPI
Thursday 11 July: US CPI, UK GDP & industrial production
Friday 12 July: US PPI, Uni Michigan consumer sentiment
If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below: James Brodie; https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ Harry Nedeljkovic; https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/
macroeconomics #economics #stocks #stockmarket #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #podcast #trading #energy #inflation #employment #opec #oilswaps #election #UKelection #Labour #Conservatives #FrenchElection #Macron #LePen
Brent crude prices have had a strong week, continuing to rally at $87/bbl. The latest CFTC data indicates that the market has become balanced and neutral in positioning. This presents an opportunity for bullish investors to take action, with legacy positions and new entrants supporting this trend.
However, macroeconomic news doesn't fully support this bullish outlook. Economic data from China and the US is weak, with China's manufacturing sector contracting for the second consecutive month and service activity dropping to a five-month low. Additionally, central banks intervening in the bond market as yields hit all-time lows signal potential global economic challenges.
Regarding refinery margins, Martha raises a question: how far into the summer driving season must we go before the market reacts? Currently, refinery margins have increased by about a dollar, with crude and product prices also rising.
Gasoline prices remain unstable and sideways, suggesting the potential for shocks given the unusually low-price levels and poor liquidity. This instability might lead to gappy price action. Last week, RBOB saw the highest level of short positions by money managers in five years.
The team also discusses the big story of the week: Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) has initiated an investigation, demanding answers from the CEOs of 18 oil producers regarding potential collusion with OPEC to artificially raise prices for American consumers and increase federal government costs.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:28 Brent Futures
1:50 Macro market news
6:21 Refinery margins & products
15:14 China & US economic data
19:24 "Googling oil:" world oil news
23:22 Poll results
26:08 Global elections & the markets
29:20 Outro
Today, Macro specialist James Brodie and Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic discuss the impact of the first round of results of the French election, along with the upcoming UK and US elections and their economic impacts.
James and Harry also cover the Japanese Yen, European inflation, and Guyana's economic growth due to Exxon and partners' investment to develop Starbroek oil and gas field. Finally, they cover Ferrari's growing stock and Volkswagon's $5 billion investment in Rivian.
The key data to look out for this week is:
Tuesday - Eurozone CPI June preliminary
Wednesday - US ISM Services for June, FOMC Minutes
Friday - Industrial Production FOR (France, Germany, Spain), US Non-Farm Payrolls
If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below:
James Brodie; https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Harry Nedeljkovic; https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/
macroeconomics #economics #stocks #stockmarket #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #podcast #trading #energy #inflation #employment #opec #oilswaps #election #USelection #Trump #Biden #Debate #FrenchElection #Macron #LePen #Ferrari #Rivian
For a special podcast episode, Group Chief Executive Greg Newman is joined by Senior Commercial Associate Remona Tefaj and Business Development Associate Melis Varol for a discussion regarding CFTC COT reports and the significance of third party data sets.
Greg, Remona, and Melis delve into the scope of the information provided by the CFTC, how using supplemental third-party data can provide an expansive interpretation of current trader positioning for the whole oil market, and the sales team's rebuttals in their journey of introducing Onyx's data set.
You can find the whitepaper here: https://www.onyxhub.co/news/all/free-cftc-cot-white-paper/
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: Greg Newman | LinkedIn
Remona Tefaj: Remona Tefaj | LinkedIn
Melis Varol: Melis Varol | LinkedIn
Group Chief Investment Officer and Onyx Co-Founder Omar Kayaam joins Group Chief Executive Officer Greg Newman to reflect on how they've scaled the business over the last year.
They discuss the big moves that have propelled the business, including hiring experts, developing the technology arm of Onyx, buying out investors, expanding to new offices, and more. Eight years after founding the company, Omar and Greg address how they finally found the right team to navigate the evolving industry and carve a path to a democratised oil market.
Tune in to hear their insights and their vision for the future of Onyx.
If you'd like to connect with Greg or Omar on LinkedIn, click on the links below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Omar Kayaam: https://www.linkedin.com/in/omar-naveed-kayaam/
You can find Greg and Omar's podcast from 2023 here: https://youtu.be/3iF48lAxZqI
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Intro
1:14 Major Changes & Milestones Overview
3:12 Share Buyback, New board & Staff, C-Suite
11:15 Office Expansion
15:13 Evolving as the Market Shifts
22:38 Sustainable Business models
32:22 Rising Oil Volumes, Onyx Retail and Investor Offers
36:05 Company Cash Flows, Investments, Managing Risks
38:08 Future Direction & Business Ventures
41:47 Closing Thoughts, Future Recruitment Plans and Outro
We saw extremely rangebound prices in crude this week, with the September Brent futures contract hovering between $84/bbl and $85/bbl.
The team discuss the nature of the oil market, what's going on with Dated Brent, volatility, US jet fuel demand, and the upcoming US election debate. Not to mention, Jorge "The Regulator" weighs in on the current state of benchmarks and conspiracy theories.
Refinery margins have been relatively rangebound, although a weakened crude flat price supported margins this past week. In contrast to previous weeks' performances, the distillates market was lacklustre. Meanwhile, gasoline saw better support on stronger demand indicators. Although refinery margins were not the driver for the recent strength in Dated Brent, this may have spurred some refiners who were originally waiting for lower prices to now make last-minute cargo purchases.
We discuss these trade ideas in detail in our weekly Onyx Alpha report. For further information on where you can access this report, kindly contact our sales team: sales@onyxcapitaladvisory.com
You can find Onyx's benchmark publication, "The Officials," here: https://www.onyxhub.co/
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/\
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Onyx Hub: https://www.onyxhub.co/
OnyxHub is the leading portal for commodity market news with a focus on the oil complex. Discover our charts, forecasts, analysis and more.
Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian sits down with Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss the latest macroeconomic news, risks, and trends.
They analyse recent Chinese industrial production and retail sales data, which shows China's industrial production printing below expectations in May, at 5.6% year-on-year, while at 3.7%, retail sales beat expectations. They also discuss US industrial output, which rose 0.9% in May, and take a deep dive into recent US housing and building permit statistics. The UK is also considered, with CPI, retail sales, and PMI data for June all examined.
They have an update on various central bank policy rate decisions, the Euro area’s struggles and on NVIDIA's relentless rise, given it briefly became the world’s largest company by market cap last week.
Harry Nedeljkovic weighs in for an update on Europe’s underperforming but potentially hopeful tech sector, the upcoming French legislative election, and finally South Korea’s worsening demographic emergency. Harry Tchilinguirian then explains a potential commodity-related trade idea.
If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below:
Harry Tchilinguirian; https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/
Harry Nedeljkovic; https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/
For a special episode of World of Oil Derivatives, Group Chief Executive Greg Newman is joined by Managing Director of Benchmarking, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian for a detailed discussion regarding global oil demand.
Greg, Jorge, and Harry delve into the differing perspectives on oil demand from two major agencies, the IEA and OPEC, focusing on their projections for both short and long-term global oil demand growth.
The discussion highlights the growing contentiousness between the IEA and OPEC,highlighted by recent comments from OPEC's Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais. He criticized the IEA, claiming that the “IEA’s narratives for oil are dangerous, especially for consumers, and could lead to unprecedented volatility.”
Central to the controversy is over when oil demand will peak, plateau, and eventually decline, and at what rate? The debate has significant implications for future investments in the oil sector to meet increasing demand. The debate is highly charged, taking place amidst the broader context of energy transition and the goal of achieving net-zero emission target.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Harry Tchilinguirian; https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/
We saw a very strong performance in crudethis week, with Brent futures already up to $84/bbl. The team discuss market dynamics, emphasizing the shift from deep contango to backwardation in crude structure. After a recent positional reset, the market appears more balanced, with summer demand looking healthy.
The team go on to discuss the history of repricing in the oil markets, with Greg noting that big market moves often come from unexpected events. For example: recession expectations in the past were priced in, which actually ended up preventing their occurrence. Similar dynamics apply to oil markets, with Q3 summer bullish expectations unfulfilled due to extreme positioning, highlighting that major moves only happen with significant shifts in market sentiment and the largest profits often come from low-volatility markets with high prices.
Looking to the refinery margin, the crude flat price has increased, supporting the products outright but European gasoline remains a cause for concern. Cracks and spreads have had a massive sell-off over the past two weeks after loads of stop-outs in the European gasoline market. It has created a snowball effect, as players have become quite hands-off in Europe, in particular. The unexpected sell-offs are moving the market in an unexpected (by some) way into summer driving season.
Macro specialist James Brodie says this week the market is reacting to lower CPI, PPI and a very weak consumer sentiment reading. However the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised the market with a hawkish statement, but the bond market disagrees, and is pricing in more aggressive rate cuts by the central bank.
Today, Macro specialist James Brodie discusses last week's weaker than expected US economic data, as well as the more hawkish Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank. Research Analyst, Harry Nedeljkovic weighs in on the up-coming French election, in addition to Argentina and especially their economic situation. Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian joins Macro Mondays for the first time to talk through how the recent data out of China may come to impact oil demand.
CPI & PPI both came in lower than expected and US consumer sentiment fell sharply to a 7-month low. Yet the Fed see the Unemployment rate remaining at 4.0% until year end.
China data was interesting this week; Industrial production (5.6%) came in lower than expected (YoY growth decelerated) but retail sales beat expectations at +3.7%. However, the property price fall was the largest monthly fall in over 13 years.
The key data to look out for this week is;
Tuesday – US retail sales & Industrial production, plus RBA.
Wednesday – U.S. markets closed, UK inflation
Thursday – BOE & SNB
Friday – U.S. PMI data, UK & Canada retail sales.
If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below:
James Brodie; https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Harry Nedeljkovic; https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/
Harry Tchilinguirian; https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/
Brent is back in the $80’s this week after a huge rebound and initial sell-off post-OPEC meeting. Crude flat prices are back to where we were pre-OPEC meeting, as the August contract fell to lows of $77/bbl before climbing all the way back up to $82/bbl this morning.
The M1 refinery margins in Europe continue to weaken this week by nearly $0.35/bbl; however, the same in Asia climbed by $0.55/bbl this week. Asian margins appear to be picking up compared to how low they were at the end of May. The market still looks less confident about gasoline, though.
The summer demand looks like it's manifesting in jet fuel in Asia, due to strong aviation demand - which is soaring as travel returns back to pre-Covid levels.
Looking to the macro market, James and Greg discuss why unemployment has ticked up 4.4%. As demand is falling, people aren't spending as much, and lower-income households are hurting. Full-time work is declining, and people with multiple part time jobs are on the rise. This isn't a great sign for the economy.
The trade idea for this week is long US propane.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/
Macro-Economic Specialist James Brodie is joined by Onyx Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss what's been happening in the markets, including Friday's US pay roll data,
The European elections over the weekend and the big moves in gold. James and Harry will also discuss the Trade of the week, EURUSD and GameStop.
Friday's US payroll data saw 272,000 jobs created last month, much higher than expect the expected 180,000 jobs, which took the market by surprise, resulting in yields being ramped much higher and the US dollar strengthening aggressively. The European elections took place this weekend, with Identity & Democracy winning 58 seats,( with a gain of 9 seats) and the EPP with 186 seats, (gaining 10 seats). Whilst the Socialists and Democrats have reduced their vote share along with the Greens, the centre right has managed to maintain a decent amount. With immigration sky-rocketing since Brexit, Harry and James answer the question; is this discontent with immigration or government?
Roaring Kitty is also back in the news this week after resurfacing on a live stream watched by hundreds of thousands on Friday, and James and Harry discuss his influence on the market.
On to the chart of the week, the EURUSD broker lower again. The market reacted strongly to the dollar after strong US payrolls, with the biggest two day move lower since September.
If you would like to connect with our hosts on LinkedIn, you can do so by clicking on the link below:
James Brodie
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Harry Nedeljkovic
https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrynedeljkovic/
Brent Futures have been extremely bearish following US markets open, dropping to $77/bbl Monday morning. It’s all about OPEC, as the meeting over the weekend saw existing voluntary cuts extended into September 2024. This move hinted at OPEC's willingness to bring back barrels to the market. However, doubts remain about compliance from certain members and future global demand growth.
Refinery margins are overall weak, with low US gasoline demand and overall US weakness permeating the European market. However, the market has seen decent buying in Q3 at these lower levels. CFTC data for the week to May 21 showed money managers removed around 5.8mbbls of length (-7.4%) and added over 5.5mbbls (+23%) to their short positions in gasoil futures.
The team analyses looks at US fundamentals. With factors including potential hurricanes, heatwaves, and exports potentially tightening supply, WTI prices could decline relative to Brent. Martha's trade idea for this week - to short July WTI/Brent swaps - ties in. You can learn more about the trade idea here: https://youtu.be/S8GcUsnEMpg
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
NVIDIA and GameStop are back in the news headlines this week. On Monday morning we saw GameStop up 85% after hours in the overnight trading session. Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, came out on Sunday night on his social media accounts to reveal that he owns $115.7 million of GameStop equity.
NVIDIA is now 40% of the S&P growth this year. The Nasdaq had an interesting price movement on Friday, with key support at 18,4014. The market tried to break below on Friday, but in the last 20 minutes of the day saw aggressive buying.
Last week, the VIX index traded down to four-year lows and interest rate volatility (MOVE Index) traded down to one-year lows. James expects volatility to pick up, which would mean more aggressive moves - meaning Nvidia and Tech stocks in general would be the prime for a sell-off.
Looking at property, in yet another attempt to support the falling house market in China, the Shandong province lowered the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans and also removed the lower limit on loan interest rates. Over to Japan, though, it’s a different issue with 9,000000 empty properties.
The key data to look out for this week is US ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday we have the Bank of Canada, US Service PMI and Australian GDP. On Thursday, it's the ECB meeting. And then the big one on Friday is the US payrolls data.
Brent Futures have been volatile and rangebound this week, dropping to around $81/bbl and supported again over $84/bbl. With the OPEC meeting next week (and being held online), there's been conversation that Russia has overproduced oil output, but will be correcting lower after not adhering to the April quota due to over production. This audit will be used to update production baselines.
Biden announced he was releasing a million barrels of gasoline from the northeast gasoline supply reserve ahead of July 4th. In reality, this has been planned for a long time and isn't reflective of the optics he has been given. Both sides are claiming that he's falsely pushing down the price. While Biden claims it will help with inflation, it was actually a bipartisan bill that was passed years ago, and it was actually Trump who wanted to sell this stockpile originally. The team ask the question: Is this just wasting money?
The team discuss the latest impact of recent world events like the Singapore Airlines turbulence death, the impact on people's psyches, and in turn if that has an impact on the market. They dive into the real estate market, where more houses are being listed for sale in the US - which looks like a result of rising unemployment rates. They explore how different demographics look at property and discuss whether young Brits believe it's even possible to buy a home.
Macro Specialist James Brodie explains the massive complacency in the market this week. We've gone from one extreme to another. He discusses the VIX and volatility. Equity volatility is at four-year lows, interest rate volumes at one-year lows, and all the action is in the commodity markets. With unemployment rising and retail sales falling aggressively, the Fed is unlikely to hike.
The trade idea for this week is to buy the July Gaspnap.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/\
Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:15 Brent Futures
6:10 Refinery margins
15:07 Singapore Airlines & major events affecting the market
20:23 Market volatility & the VIX
25:52 Macro market news & debate
43:16 "Googling oil:" world oil news
52:55 Trade idea of the week
59:05 Outro
On today's show, James focuses on the stronger-than-expected US economic data, which has pushed yields higher. He also discusses the growing concerns around employment, the booming Indian economy, weakening UKL data, and unfortunate timing with the election looming.
Some charts and trade ideas that James discusses include NVIDIA, Nasdaq, silver, copper, and USDJPY.
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie
Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Group Chief Executive Officer, Greg Newman sits down with Group Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Chen to discuss the importance of people, leadership, planning, debt, investment and risk in scaling a business from a start up to a supersonic company.
Greg and Andrew, both experts in their fields, dive into the psychology of what motivates individuals in the workplace and how comparison can be the thief of joy. They reflect on their leadership style and how their managers from their formative career years had a profound effect on their career and management style now.
As core member's of the c-suite for Onyx Capital Group, the pair share the decisions and learnings they take from every financial and business decision they make on behalf of Onyx Capital Group.
Crude futures climbed over the week, surpassing $84/bbl on Monday morning, which was the first weekly gain in 3 weeks.
Heating oil and gas oil were the most negative in the refinery margin change this week. We saw strength come back into EBOB and Gasoil which has helped the products we look at in the swaps market in Europe see greater strength.
James says the macro news last week was the US CPI data, which is falling again. There was also weaker than expected retail sales and industrial production, dragging US yields lower. Elsewhere, the big movers of the week were in the commodity markets, with copper, gold, even orange juice at all-time highs. Silver though was the big mover, breaking key resistance at $30 and now targeting all time highs of $49.8. Nickel, tin, zinc, aluminium..... are all surging higher as well.
The team also discuss the big shale oil story coming out of the US regarding a wave of class action lawsuits, after regulators claim the industry conspired to curb production.
The trade idea this week is buy Long Jun/Jul DFL.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:30 Brent Futures
7:33 Refinery margins & CTA positioning
15:35 Macro market news
19:31 "Googling oil:" world oil news
28:33 Key data
30:32 Trade idea of the week
35:53 Poll results, equities & retail trading
On today's show, James discusses the recent break out in the equity markets, and the huge surge higher in commodities with a particular focus on silver. Copper and Gold are at all-time highs and silver has broken out aggressively from of a key resistance level at $30, which previously acted as triple top. Nickle, Tin, Zinc, Aluminium and other metals are surging higher and even orange juice is trading at all-time highs.
Last week's data has created some interesting moves in the markets. US CPI came in at 3.4% on expectations, confirming inflation is falling again. But on the flip side, retail sales data told us that the consumer in the US is hurting, unemployment is ticking up and the economy is slowing.
The key data to look out for this week is; Canadian CPI on Tuesday, UK CPI, Nvidia earnings, US exiting home sales and FED minutes on Wednesday, the Eurozone and UK PMIs on Thursday and US durable goods orders and UK retail sales on Friday.
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie
Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Brent crude is consolidating around $82-83/bbl. The big story over the weekend was Iraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdul, saying on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to renew cuts, but flipped on Sunday, saying that Iraq will continue to cooperate with other member states about this cut.
Looking to the refinery margins, spreads have collapsed with stop outs driving the movement. There was a significant drop in RBBR, down to just $21.50/bbl in Jul. There has been a build in EIA gasoline stocks (900kbbls) and refinery utilisation is up 1% .
The big Macro news headlines have kicked off with Roaring Kitty returning to X (formally Twitter) yesterday, which has already resulted in a 70% rally for GameStop. The key data this week is U.S CPI expected to drop from 3.5% YoY to 3.4%. Reaction is critical, with 10yr at key levels. 4.40% is key support.
Onto Googling Oil, the major headlines discussed this week are; Russia finding a huge gas and oil reserve in British Antarctic territory and EU potentially calling time on Russian LNG imports.
The trade idea for this week is; Short Q3 380 east west.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/\
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Welcome back to Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.
On today's show James looks back on last week's disappointing data, this weeks upcoming CPI data, and key levels in markets, particularly looking at equities, fixed income and also gold.
Precious metals are rallying again. The PBOC bought gold for 18th straight month in April, adding 60k Troy ounces to its reserves. In fact, Global central banks have bought 2,100 tonnes of gold in the last 2 years.
James digs into why the stocks we couldn't stop hearing about, by the likes of Peloton, Beyond Meat, Zoom, Rivian and Lucid have fallen by up to 90%, while the S&P and Nasdaq are a fraction off making new all-time highs.
The big mover this week was again cocoa. In one week, it has seen a 1-day fall by 15%, a 1-day rally by 13%. Both are the largest 1-day swings in 65 years.
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/ #macronews #financenews #news #stocks #employment #economy #oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #economics #derivatives #podcast #trading #bonds #nasdaq #s&p #gold #usdjpy
If you would like to access our free comprehensive monthly oil report as mentioned in the podcast, click here: https://www.onyxhub.co/dashboards/oil-market-report-may/
In last week's podcast we had started to see pressure in the crude futures contracts and we've slid to a new low of this cycle today at like $82.30/bbl.
Refinery margins were the major reason for bullish Brent over the past few months, however now it’s the major reason market sentiment has flipped. Margins have strengthened slightly week-on-week but that’s on the basis of weaker crude competing against even weaker products. It’s a self-fulfilling cycle, where weaker margins are dampening demand, which reinforces bearish sentiment for structure and spreads.
Our Macro Economic specialist, James Brodie explains that CPI, PPI, Employment Cost Index and Unit Labour Costs have all come in above expectations while employment data is suddenly deteriorating. This is the worst case for the Federal Reserve whose chair Jeremy Powell last week revealed that he thinks it's unlikely the next rate move in the U.S. will be a hike.
The trade idea this week is to sell the European Naphtha crack in the prompt June contract.
Welcome back to the third episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.
On today's show James discusses softening economic data out of the US, where there are murmurs of stagflation, the less hawkish Fed Chairman Powell and the weaker than expected employment data.
He also examines the big movers for this week. USDJPY with 2 rounds of intervention and cocoa has also fallen 41.5% in just 3 days. There's no key economic data in the week ahead so the market will trend off the employment data. Geopolitical tensions also appear to be diminishing so keep an eye on the U.S. 2 year yields, the dollar index , the S&P and gold for key moves.
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline.
Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed in gasoline, naphtha, and 3.5% barges.
This week, James focuses on mixed U.S. data, featuring weak GDP headlines but strong inflation components, potentially posing challenges for the Federal Reserve. Powell's press conference at this week's Fed meeting will be closely watched.
In the "Googling Oil" segment, the prevailing headline revolves around oil pricing falling on Monday, signalling the possibility of Israel and Hamas engaging in ceasefire talks this week.
Vincent's trade idea this week is to go short on the Q3 EBOB crack. You can find more details here: https://youtu.be/5CEovEVKGhI
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #crude #marketupdate #investing #finance #economics #derivatives #podcast #trading #israel #middleeast #geopolitics #energy #ceasefire #inflation #ETF #gold
Welcome back to the second episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.
On today's show James discusses recent mixed economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the Yen volatility. He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver, tech and equity markets.
Looking at recent employment data, James explains that although employment data is strong, the jobs that are being created are part time jobs and full time jobs are being lost. In fact, 1.34 million fulltime jobs have been lost, which is not a good sign for the economy...
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Looking at the past week, the oil market was too long and had to de-risk.
Brent Futures saw a week of stagnation and mean reversion, $90/bbl oil was very short lived and sell-off was driven by speculative positioning cycles as market participants took off length amid a waning geopolitical premium.
Looking to the refinery margin change, Dated Brent was weaker than last week and is now seeing a little bit of support, whilst gasoil continued to weaken. Martha notes the difference between the straight run and more complex products including some interesting moves in VGO prices.
The ones to watch this week are gold and tech stocks. Gold broke higher out of the $2080 resistance level the same week S&P and Nasdaq topped. However tech stock giant, Nvidia was down 21.8% from all-time highs on the week.
The big stories to follow in our "Googling Oil" segment this week are; US reimposing oil sanctions on Venezuela after broken election promises and Louisiana State University allowing Shell to influence studies after a $25m donation.
The Trade Idea for this week is to go long May Gasoline E/W.
Don't forget to check out Macro Mondays with James Brodie here: Macro Mondays with James Brodie
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:08 Brent Futures
6:25 Refinery margins
11:43 This week in trading
17:13 Macro market news
26:29 "Googling oil:" world oil news
34:36 Trade idea of the week
39:17 Poll results, gold prices, and outro
Onyx Capital Group is proud to launch a brand new show; Macro Monday's with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.
On today's show James discusses recent strong economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the US dollar strength.
He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver and equity markets. It seems like tech stocks are crashing at the moment, with Nvidia -21.8 from ATH and Tesla down 49.4% from its all-time high.
James walks us through recent US unemployment data and lets us know the risks to watch for the week ahead.
Tune in to World of Oil Derivatives tomorrow to hear James discuss these trends further.
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie
Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below:
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:35 Economic data
6:13 OIS pricing
7:54 US dollar strength
11:50 Equities
14:22 Gold and silver
18:16 Employment data
20:09 The week ahead
22:02 Volatility
Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each!
There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players.
The refinery margins have increased week on week, but mostly due to a weakened dated crude market. Gasoline continues to rally after a bit of a dip last week. The European gasoline market seems stubbornly long.
James’ one to watch this week is the continued dollar strength and higher U.S. yields - which are breaking equity market momentum, with gold making continued new all-time highs.
Aside from the major story of the Iran retaliation attack on Israel, in our Googling Oil segment, the team discus the new regulations in Nigeria which will require oil producers to sell crude to domestic refineries.
Martha’s trade idea this week is propane - selling the LST/FEI in May. Jorge also shares his trade idea, the WTI to Dubai Spread - which Jorge thinks will widen as Dubai crude powers ahead in Asia.
You can watch the LST/FEI trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8sKmB_ymD8I
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:16 This week in trading
9:12 Macro market news
15:20 CTA positioning
16:49 Refinery margins
19:38 "Googling oil:" world oil news
24:11 Trade idea of the week
28:47 Poll results
29:48 "Fiscal entrapment"
Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions.
EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up financial markets. A significant move ensued yesterday (Wednesday 10th April) following yet another robust CPI print. Notably, 2-year bond yields surged a staggering 23 basis points, marking a substantial 4.6% increase on the day.
Concurrently, the dollar strengthened by over 1%, sending equities futures tumbling by 1.4% on the open. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate position after adopting a dovish stance in Q4 2023, with the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) now pricing in just 42 basis points of cuts this year. As commodities face headwinds amidst tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar, James, Greg and Martha analyse the implications for investors and the broader economic landscape.
The trade idea for this week is to short the May/Jun C3 CP spread. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8N2bNTOYOqc
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:43 This week in trading
5:58 Macro market news
25:00 Refinery margins
34:04 Ones to watch
41:43 Poll results and outro
Brent Futures have made a notable climb since last week, hitting $89/bbl on Tuesday morning. It's crucial to analyse the impact of recent developments on oil demand. Notably, both China and the USA have seen expansions in manufacturing activity, marking significant milestones. What has been the impact of headlines regarding tighter supply and the possible contagion of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East?
Examining the refinery margin, we observed a supportive trend in the Dated market. However, product stagnation ahead of Easter also weighed down on the margin. EBOB and gasoil have experienced declines week-on-week, signalling potential shifts in market dynamics.
Macro news headlines paint a picture of resilience and growth, with manufacturing data showing surprising strength from both China and the U.S. The inflation outlook remains stable, with no concerns stemming from recent U.S. PCE data. Additionally, the US Dollar and gold continue their upward trajectory, while equities display a remarkable bullish trend reminiscent of 1989. Key data releases to watch out for this week include European CPI on Wednesday and U.S. payrolls on Friday, which could offer valuable insights into future market movements.
In our "Googling Oil" segment the team focus on Mexico's decision to halt some oil exports, which could significantly impact the global market. Pemex has cancelled contracts to supply its flagship Maya crude oil to refiners in the US, Europe, and Asia. This strategic move aims to prioritize domestic gasoline and diesel production ahead of the June 2 presidential election. With Mexico typically exporting around 600,000 barrels a day of Maya crude oil, this decision reverberates across the oil landscape, highlighting the intricate balance between geopolitical strategies and market dynamics.
The Trade Idea for this week is to buy the May/Jun DFL roll. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/CVHxPCROTV0
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:39 This week in trading
4:42 Macro market news
8:11 Refinery margins
11:35 Russian oil/refineries
13:53 Light ends
15:47 Ones to watch
23:10 "Googling oil:" world oil news
29:20 Trade idea of the week
33:35 Poll results and outro
Brent futures surged to $87.70 last week, only to encounter resistance and profit-taking flows, settling this week at a sturdy $85-86/bbl range. Macroeconomic factors and persistent supply concerns are pivotal in sustaining these levels.
Refinery margins face widespread pressure across regions, while the gasoil market sentiment remains subdued amidst spring demand and increased freight, notably from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a glimmer of hope for correction as demand dynamics evolve.
Looking to the more macro side of things, James Brodie discusses the sudden dovish stance adopted by central banks and SNB's surprising 25bp cut to the cautious rhetoric of the Fed and Bank of England regarding bond/OIS curves.
In our 'Googling Oil' segment, Greg, Vincent, Martha, and James explore intriguing headlines, including the milestone of the USA surpassing all nations in oil and gas production and Ukraine's strategic use of long-range strike drones against Russia's oil industry.
Vincent presents a compelling trade idea: shorting the summer crack, which Greg dubbed 'The Widow Maker.' Tune in as Greg, Martha, Vincent and James dissect, analyse, and forecast the fascinating developments in the oil market landscape.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:57 This Week in Trading
6:47 Macro market news
10:41 Dated Brent
12:56 Refinery margins
18:08 Gasoline
22:06 "Googling oil:" world oil news
28:25 Trade idea of the week
32:14 Brent spreads
34:13 Poll results and outro
In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Co-Head of Light Ends, Jasper Bird.
Jasper and Greg shed light on the realities of being a Trader, how egos can play a part in trading, and uncover the inner workings of a trader's mentality.
They delve into the highs and lows of trading and the challenges of maintaining social and entertainment balance as you age in the industry.
With over 6 years of experience at Onyx Capital Group, Jasper opens up about his journey into trading, his evolution within the company, and the resilient mindset necessary not only to survive but to thrive in the fast-paced world of trading and beyond.
oott #oil #oilandgas #markets #trading #finance #derivatives #investing #advice #careers #leadership
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome and introduction
1:09 Jasper's career & getting into trading
3:25 Naphtha market
13:28 The mind of a trader
19:30 Ego and trading
25:46 Trading culture and burnout
30:37 Looking to the future
With Group CEO Greg Newman abroad, Light Ends Direct Trader James Todd steps up to host World of Oil Derivatives for another market update episode.
Since last week, Brent Futures price rallied from sub $83/bbl this week to over $87.50/bbl yesterday. The breakout from its previous range came on the back of a flurry of bullish headlines - including drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, draws in both crude and gasoline inventories in the US, and positive Chinese economic data.
Looking to the refinery margin, there was strength across all products, outweighing the rally in the flat price last week, so the refinery margin saw a small increase.
James Brodie weighs in to comment on macro-economic trends. The bank of Japan hiked rates for the first time in seventeen years. US inflation is not coming down as quickly as it is in Europe, and the CPI is still just above 3%. This presents a slight concern for the Fed.
Vincent leads our "Googling Oil" segment, and the team discuss the big news stories of the week, including recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and how they were able rebuild and be up and running in a day.
The trade idea this week is to buy the Q2’24 NWE Jet diff. If you would like a further explanation of the trade idea for this week, you can watch it here: https://youtu.be/oozORbGjZsA
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
James Todd: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-t-693967a9/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:38 Brent flat price & this week in trading
10:27 Refinery margins
18:18 Macro market news
22:12 "Googling oil:" world oil news
32:39 Trade idea of the week
36:52 Poll results and outro
Crude flat price has been remarkably neutral in the past week, sitting around $82/bbl (slightly down from $83/bbl). However, the market has found a genuine equilibrium - a price level where everyone seems happy.
Looking to the refinery margin, Naphtha showed significant strength with the MOPJ crack for April exceeding -$5/bbl, while Mar/Apr in the NWE region remained robust at $20/mt. Gasnaphs saw a rise from $185 to $195/mt for April, which drew bids at the relatively cheaper levels. EBOB experienced a $2/bbl rally this week, returning to strength.
The key global macro movers this week are gold and the S&P 500, which continue to make all-time highs. We should also be watching for a stronger US dollar - as European and UK data continue to weaken, while the U.S. economy remains resilient.
In our "Googling Oil" segment, Greg, James and Vincent discuss further Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure ahead of Russia's presidential election this weekend. The other key headline this week is the OPEC and IEA being at their most divided in their oil demand forecast since at least 2008.
Vincent's trade idea this week is Long Apr/May Brent/Dubai box.
If you'd like to see Finlay Gordan's trade idea for this week, click here: https://youtu.be/we45Tv-hIWw
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:57 This Week in Trading
6:21 Brent/Dubai
9:28 Macro Market News
16:47 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
25:11 Trade Idea of the Week
29:06 Poll Results and Outro
Oil markets are all of a sudden kicking into gear, and it seems we are now on that highway to the danger zone. With every market indicator of the underlying physical market strong, and forward derivative prices indicating that this will last for some time, the only thing left to truly perform is the outright price.
Will this carry through? And will the danger zone of inflation, demand destruction and overextension grip oil markets once again?
It’s been a bullish week in the crude market, which continued into a very strong Brent expiry for April futures. On the flat price side, it’s still a bullish tone but remaining range bound.
Refinery margins have seen a stark contrast week-on-week between the European and Asian refinery margins, which has come from a divergence in the gasoline market between the two regions.
The one to watch this week is China, as its announced its aim for an economic growth rate of 5% in 2024,and CPI around 3% - which aims to add 12 million urban jobs in 2024.
And on our Googling Oil segment, the main story to follow this week is OPEC members extending production cuts in bid to boost oil price.
Finally, Vincent’s trade idea for this week is to short April or May Sing 0.5% crack.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:22 This Week in Trading
6:13 Refinery Margins
8:41 Macro Market News
14:15 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
21:16 Trade Idea of the Week
34:28 Poll Results and Outro
It's been another rangebound, albeit less bullish week in Brent futures. Crude prices came off from around $84/bbl. down to the low 80s, where it found some support on Monday.
As for the refinery margin change, Dated Brent is significantly weaker. There were some significant moves in gasoline and gasoil. The latter saw a real weakness in prices amid poor European demand. Martha also looked into American refinery margins, which is also weak across the whole gasoil complex and heating oil especially.
James Brodie weighs in for macro news headlines. The big news for last week was that the Nvidia earnings soared and 34 years later, while Nikkei finally broke above its 1989 high. Off the back of these huge Nvidia earnings, Greg raises an important discussion regarding the tech bubble. If everyone is in wait and see mode, regarding the tech bubble, does that not tell you that a recession is unlikely?
Martha wraps up the podcast with her fuel oil trade idea, to sell the Apr/May 3.5% spread. There are both fundamental and financial flows factors with the fuel oil stock levels in the ARA being relatively high.
Make sure to follow us on X, as Vincent will be posting about the Brent expiry. Follow us @Onyx__Edge.
For weekly data insights, subscribe to our newsletter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7148228862387109888
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:30 This Week in Trading
6:25 Refinery Margins
8:57 Macro Market News
13:39 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
17:47 Trade Idea
21:02 Brent Forecast
24:07 Poll Results and Outro
In a special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Group CEO Greg Newman sits down with Jorge Montepeque, the new Managing Director - Benchmarking. Jorge, an industry legend, pioneered oil pricing by introducing benchmarks, revolutionising communication across different sites worldwide.
When Greg first started trading, most traders relied on Yahoo Messenger for precise time stamps. Then came Jorge, reinventing communication, making it faster and introducing a platform enabling traders to communicate down to the millisecond—a game-changer for the oil trading world.
With over forty years of experience, Jorge is an icon and a pivotal figure in the oil industry. Do not miss this must-watch episode.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome and introduction
4:09 Jorge's career and the creation of benchmarking
15:05 Price windows
22:05 Adopting new technologies in trading
27:20 Establishing flat price
40:33 Importance of derivatives
It's been a bullish week for crude flat price this week and has been supported above $80 levels, reaching a peak of $85.50, which is seemingly finding resistance at current levels. However, overall market sentiment has been quite bullish from both hedge funds and speculators alike.
As for refinery margins; there's been a week-on-week decline of nearly $3/bbl in the prompt. Currently on a downtrend but where will it find support?
Looking at oil from a macro perspective, China has cut the five-year loan frame rate by 25 basis points to 3.95%. Not only was that unexpected in the market, but this was the biggest move they've ever made, highlighting the urgency its central bank is trying to create to stimulate growth in the economy.
Looking to CFTC and how people are positioned, we've been seeing hedge funds loading up on positions in both crude and refined products, but especially on crude futures in both Brent and WTI.
Vincent's trade idea is Long Naphtha Cracks (A Contrarian Trade Idea – that found the bottom on Monday after an immense sell-off last week). We'll have a new Trade Idea out tomorrow, so make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:47 This Week in Trading
4:05 Macro Market News
7:29 CFTC Data
11:21 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
15:58 Trade Idea
18:50 Poll Results
19:25 What to Watch in the Macro Market
Last week, Brent crude flat price rallied, pushing up over $80/bbl and staying there since then. The rejected ceasefire deal on Feb 06 supported this bullish momentum.
We've seen strength across refinery margins - particularly in Europe - with a notable rally in product prices, including strong bidding in the physical market. Greg, Martha, and James discuss ongoing geopolitical conflict, refinery outages, and potential oversaturation due to early positioning in Q3 and the need to balance refinery maintenance with market demand to sustain current price levels.
In macroeconomic news, the Saudi government has instructed Aramco to halt expansion initiatives, signalling a shift towards green energy. The hosts also discuss conflicting actions from Australia's top oil and gas producer.
Martha's trade idea this week is to buy the FEI (Asian benchmark) propane contract and sell the CP (Saudi Arabia) propane contract, as the CP levels have dropped recently. This may lead to profit-taking, while there is support for the FEI with potential poor liquidity, making it a short-term contrarian trade with good upside.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:30 This Week in Trading
6:31 Macro Market News
12:45 Refinery Margins
18:20 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
26:26 Trade Idea
29:09 Poll Results and Outro
Brent futures softened from over $80 last week, to stabalise around $78/bbl on Feb 6. Geopolitically, tensions persist in the Middle East with ongoing conflicts and ceasefire talks proving elusive. Despite positive economic indicators, market enthusiasm appears lacking, reflected in WTI spreads in contango and a rangebound regime across the crude complex.
As for the refinery margin change; the weakness in crude oil is impacting refined products. The Dated Brent market, with a lack of interest in expiry and resistance observed in DFLs amid increased March-loading barrels and Asia refinery maintenance.
For macro economic news and the one to watch, we've seen continued weakness in inflation, as yesterday European PPI has come down 10.6% year on year. However, the big news is in the US payroll data from last week. Although the market was looking for weakness, some were shocked to find the US unemployment rate fell from 3.8 to 3.7%.
Martha's trade idea is to buy the Q3 Gasnap (European Gasoline EBOB, sell European naphtha).
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:54 This Week in Trading
4:36 CFTC Positioning
6:05 Macro Market News
13:48 Refinery Margins
20:50 LPGs
23:34 Chinese Economy
27:59 US Economy
28:39 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
36:30 Biden Banning LNG Exports
41:58 Trade Idea
45:41 Poll Results and Outro
Brent futures spent most of the week with prices typically above $80 per barrel, recording a second week of gains. Geopolitical risk premiums strengthened, and positive economic news from the US, along with promising developments in China, contributed to the positive sentiment.
As for refinery margins, it's been a positive week, with products driving the rally and support seen from every product down the barrel.
Greg reflects on the paradox of the Dated Brent market, pivotal in global crude oil pricing, being potentially net bearish, yet experiencing upward price momentum due to financial inflows. Brent spreads, and speculative forces stemming from the Red Sea, are prompting the question of whether the current upward momentum can be sustained and if the North Sea market, for instance, might be mistaken.
If you'd like to see our trade idea of the week, check it out here: https://youtu.be/MDqmKHSXWKU
And you can now subscribe to our newsletter by clicking on the link below:
https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7148228862387109888
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:58 Brent Market
11:59 Refinery Margins
20:08 Trade Idea
26:44 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
29:25 Poll Results and Outro
Brent futures saw sub $77/bbl levels on 17 Jan after poor economic data from China saw the GDP rise by 5.2% in Q4 compared to the forecast of 5.3%. CFTC data for the week to Jan 16, (in Brent futures) saw a continuation of a more bullish sentiment, with bullish speculators adding almost 15mbbls (+5%) of length, whilst their bearish counterparts decreased their short positioning by 1.5mbbls (-2%). In WTI, a more bearish stance was seen. Bulls removed over 5mbbls (-2.5%) of long positions, whilst bears added to their short positionings by over 13mbbls (12%).
As for the changes in the refinery margin, the strength seen in the Dated Brent market has been overshadowed by refined product strength allowing margins to rally. Gasoline was lifted by good summer buying and the prompt being bought by refiners points to expected future strength. European gasoil rallied from heavy selling in EW (down past -$35) due to the Red Sea turmoil resulting in AG Europe-bound loadings dropping 55% M-o-M.
The headline to watch right now is Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), whose shares plunged as the CFO was put on “Administrative Leave” pending ongoing investigation regarding certain accounting practices and procedures. As such the release of Q4 earnings is delayed.
In our Googling Oil segment the research team and Greg discuss the recent Ukraine drone attack and Russia becoming the biggest oil supplier in 2023.
Our Trade Idea comes from Head of Learning and Development, James Brodie who says to watch the Bank of Japan potentially raising rates and moving away from negative rates, which could result in a massive boost. He suggests to go long Yen, especially against the pound and the euro.
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
AND if you're interested in learning about what the upcoming US Election could mean for the price of oil, please make sure to check out the latest episode of our Onyx Leadership Series here: Onyx Leadership: Jonah Van Bourg S6 | E03
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:48 This Week in Trading
4:10 Macro Market News
15:44 Brent/Dubai
20:02 Refinery Margins
30:35 "Googling Oil:" World Oil News
37:35 Trade Idea of the Week
Onyx Director Jonah Van Bourg discusses his extremely eventful career thus far with CEO Greg Newman. From how his experience working at Goldman Sachs and Vitol, to working on the floor on Lehman Brother's floor, in the midst of the biggest bankruptcy in American history.
Jonah discusses his experience in crypto trading and sheds light on how crypto and oil are incredibly similar commodities in a lot of ways, drawing parallels to their shaky beginnings, where people had discovered it, but didn't necessarily know how to use it yet, or the derivatives that would come from it.
With the US election looming closer, there's a lot to be said about how the outcome of the election will impact the price of oil and the energy markets. What could happen if there are wild card events like Trump or Biden dying, to how the transition of party leadership could tear up the oil industry.
If you’d like to connect with Greg or Jonah on LinkedIn, click on the links below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jonah Van Bourg: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jvanbourg/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome and Introduction
4:29 Jonah's career and working at Lehman Brothers
21:02 Derivatives trading
26:33 Crypto as a commodity
35:13 Onyx's mission and evolution of the oil market
45:32 2024 outlook
48:27 2024 US election and effects on the market
Supply and demand modelling is no longer enough to accurately determine market value. The recent market has been a perfect illustration of this in key differentials in the oil market, which have been driven by stop outs, pushing market prices against the fundamental consensus. Example discussed are the North Sea differential rally in prompt DFLs, Brent Dubai's move against market consensus and propane volatility in US contracts.
Onyx Capital Group CEO joins Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu (dialing in from our Singapore office), to review the latest week of trading in oil, how things are playing out and what to watch going forward.
Flat price surpassed $80/bbl on Friday on the back of Red Sea tensions, as the UK and US launched attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen.
The current market sentiment for Brent Dubai suggests a noticeable shift towards buying, with significant momentum on the buy side. Martha expresses confidence in the likelihood of this trend holding, despite attempts to sell off in recent days, there is evident support at current levels. Large market players are actively seeking to buy Brent Dubai, as indicated by changing flows.
Refinery margins are exhibiting strength across various products, particularly in EBOB and gasoil. Despite a total purchase of 292 kbbls by trade houses in June, July, August, September, and Q3, Q3 prices are historically high, while Q1 prices are comparatively less robust. The market is influenced by factors such as the Dangote refinery's impact and Pemex's anticipated boost in fuel production by 1.05mbpd, with RBOB crack low and increased U.S. exports to Australia and Mozambique.
In our macro-economic headlines to watch. The team discusses;
U.S. OIS curve (overnight index swap) is pricing 163 basis points of cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Inflation is grinding lower towards target rates and is no longer striking fear in the markets. In fact China is now clearly in deflation!
Manufacturing globally is weak, German industrial production just had its 6th consecutive monthly decline (down 4.8% YoY) and 14% below its pre-pandemic peak.
You can watch our Trade Idea of the week here: https://youtu.be/g1_AIsKe4-s
If you’d like to connect with Greg, Martha or Vincent on LinkedIn, click on the links below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:50 This Week in trading
2:17 Brent Futures
7:54 Brent-Dubai
15:26 News in the Oil Market
23:34 Refinery Margins
27:53 Weather Events and the NGL Market
32:15 Macro News and Market Outlook
World of Oil Derivatives is back for 2024!
With a new year, traders, market analysts and market observers are looking for a consensus. Research houses are making their claims, and banks their forecasts, and it will still be 1-2 months before we hear from trade houses and majors about their outlook for the year.
So could the global economy surprise us to the upside this year? Could we get lower interest rates that brings on a risk on move in macro markets? Or, as always, could there be a geopolitical conflict that genuinely does impact supply?
Onyx CEO Greg Newman joins Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu for an update on how Brent Futures have played out since Christmas.
Greg, Martha and Vincent discuss the impact macro news events have on the market. From the Boeing malfunction to the recent earthquake in Japan, Greg sheds light on how huge events like this can be surprisingly bearish in the long term. However the Red Sea attacks are a different story, which the team will discuss.
We give an update on the refinery margins which are showing slight improvement week-on-week. Vincent sums it up by saying it’s a shit time to trade! The Trade Idea of the week is to short the February C4 ENT vs. C3 LST.
Make sure to leave a comment on our YouTube page, we’d love to hear from you.
If you’d like to connect with Greg, Martha or Vincent on LinkedIn, click on the links below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Jump straight to the chapter you’re interested in:
02.33: Brent Futures
04.33: Googling Oil/Big Oil Headlines
14.26: Macro News Events on the Oil Market
27.00: Refinery Margins
33.15: Trade Idea of the week
In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Onyx Capital Group CEO is joined by Onyx Partner and Head of Desk for NGL, Luke Mcdermott.
Luke discusses his years of experience in the industry and the minutia of NGL’s. Most importantly Luke discusses the current situation of the Panama Canal and what that means for Traders and the economy.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:14 NGLs
2:53 Shipping
6:50 Saudi shipping & market share
13:11 Europe, Asia & US
14:53 Panama Canal 101
19:56 Supply and arb economics
24:22 Hedging
30:12 Panama Canal issues
34:57 2024 outlook
41:35 Supply and demand
The resolution of the OPEC drama has brought contentment to market players as they embrace a stable oil price in the low 70s. Despite this relief, demand concerns persist as Brent spreads remain in contango until April/May'24, indicating a prevailing weak physical sentiment in the market.
Complicating matters, a geopolitical risk premium hangs over the Red Sea, prompting commercial shipping companies to avoid the area. Instead, vessels are rerouted through the safer but longer passage around the Cape of Good Hope due to heightened tensions involving the Houthis. These actions, including attempts to obstruct cargo shipments to Israel and claiming responsibility for past attacks, have placed major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd on high alert.
Refinery margins have seen increased support, with the influence of crude oil being amplified in the products. Notably, there has been a positive shift in gasoil and European gasoline (EBOB). Despite EBOB experiencing robust bidding throughout the week, there has been a noteworthy shift in the trade house's stance from bidding to selling in significant volume in the prompt market.
Martha gives her trade Idea of the week; going long in the Feb WTI/Brent futures spread, but you can learn more about that here: https://youtu.be/NKUR7n_rYmY
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
0:51 Market update
2:40 2023 market reflections
5:55 Refined products update
12:03 Trader positioning
27:15 Trade idea of the week
35:36 Thanks for a great year
In the latest developments in the global oil market, bearish sentiment has taken hold as OPEC cuts clash with the surge in non-OPEC production (notably from the United States and Guyana). The market is treading cautiously, adopting a risk-off stance as it awaits crucial macroeconomic headlines. Investors are on edge in anticipation of the CPI report on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
Brent crude has found stability, settling around the mid-70s, a level deemed comfortable by industry observers. But a glimmer of positivity emerged as a bullish non-farm payroll result put a temporary halt to the downward spiral of crude prices.
As for changes in the refinery margin, W-O-W decrease for the first time in weeks and weakness in products is finally overtaking the weakness in Dated as the products are finally driving the margins.
The biggest loser is gasoline now as RBBR hasn’t been strong, and data revealed today shows Euro stocks up in Nov 1mbbls and the US have seen 3 weeks of increasing builds US gasoline imports from Europe plunged in the first week of December to the lowest in more than three years.
Vincent brings an interesting trade idea this week. He suggests going long in the Jan/Feb EBOB spread. To catch the full Trade Idea, click here: https://youtu.be/2P-_yGY4BDU
Links below to Greg, Vincent and Martha’s LinkedIn pages:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Industry Legend and Director of Levmet, Kurt Chapman, joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the evolution of the Dated Brent market.
Kurt discusses his plethora of experience in the physical and financial markets. He graduated from Harvard University with a BA in Economics and went on to serve as an Infantry Officer in the US Marine Corps. He explains how his time in the Marines prepared him for life as a Commodity Trader.
His wide-spanning trading career started on Wall Street in the '80s, where trading commodities was relatively new, and by 2006 Kurt joined Mercuria Energy Trading in Geneva as an Equity Partner and Global Head of Crude. In his 30 years in the industry, he’s seen significant change in how Crude is traded. From volatility in the early 2000s and the commodities super cycle, to the economic crash in 2009, to OPEC bringing discipline back into the market, Kurt discusses the evolution of the market from making trades via phone calls and pagers to the migration to the electronic exchange and how that affected Traders' lines of work.
Kurt and Greg discuss how the Brent Benchmark has evolved over the years and now includes US crude. Its ability to evolve is what keeps the Brent benchmark the number one benchmark in oil. They also discuss the future of Crude Oil Trading and where the market is heading.
Onyx Research Associate Martha Downing joins CEO Greg Newman with a market update and the pair discuss how the markets were affected pre and post OPEC meeting.
Martha informs us how the refinery margin changed. Crude and the products are still weak and gasoil is weighing down the margins in both regions. The end of last month saw players holding their MOPJ, which is Asian naphtha into pricing, which is going to continue to bolster the spread.
Martha recommends MOC in gasoline as her one to watch. In the east, we have seen the RON 92 gasoline MOC (market on close) flow was almost ubiquitously well bid with strong buying seen in the windows. There have been slightly contrasting flows in the paper contracts outside of this. The strong flow and sentiment have been from the sell-side, with two European trade houses selling consistently, in good volume with market makers buying the spreads well.
And the Trade Idea of the week is to go long the Q1 Euro naphtha crack. The Q1 crack has seen great support recently and rose to highs of $8.65 per barrel on December 5th. Although this seems very high compared to the almost $14 per barrel level it was trading at a couple of months ago, it remains fairly low, historically.
Links below to Greg and Martha’s LinkedIn pages:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
In this episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Chief Technology Officer Ishaan Hemnani joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the vital role of technology in the oil derivatives industry.
Ishaan is an extremely unique and rare person within the industry, having experience as Fuel Trader, before pivoting into technology and creating Bunker X, which has become the playbook for many in the oil industry.
Ishaan and Greg discuss how they came to work together and why Ishaan chose to move over to Onyx Capital Group. Ishaan also explains how we’re using AI in the industry, and why we shouldn’t fear it as much as we do.
To learn more about Greg and Ishaan, check out their LinkedIn profiles:
Greg: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ishaan: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ishaan-hemnani-60a02831/
A volatile market influenced by OPEC headlines is still leaving oil markets sitting anxiously in “wait and see” mode. With the anticipation surrounding the upcoming OPEC meeting, Brent crude has been oscillating around $80. The market is expecting OPEC to deepen existing cuts, with fundamentals largely skewed to the downside.
Refinery margins have been improving week on week due to crude weakness although we're seeing weakness down the barrel in the products. There was an improvement of over a dollar whilst there was weakness across most products including gasoil and EBOB. Martha explains why.
Martha recommends the LNG story as the one to watch. Origin Energy announced reduced gas supply to Australian Pacific LNG. A loaded tanker lost power, delaying LNG cargoes. Its two main customers are China's Sinopec and Japan's Kansai Electric.
Vincent has an interesting Trade Idea of the week:
Range trading Q1/Q2 MOPJ swaps
7-day ATR: 4.25
Trade between $14-18/mt
Strategy: Track the 20-day Moving Average.
Exit trade once volatility dies down.
Links below to Greg, Martha, Vincent's LinkedIn pages:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
worldofoilderivatives #oott #oil #tradeidea #oilderivatives #podcast #marketupdate
Oil market participants are anxiously in “wait and see” mode ahead of the OPEC meeting and Greg shares his presentation summarizing market sentiment over recent months.
Greg discusses the current state of oil markets, highlighting a recent sell-off in Brent crude below $90 per barrel at the beginning of Q4. The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and a subsequent overcorrection, led to prices briefly dropping below $80.
RINs have been weak with news of a strong soybean harvest supporting biofuel supply, renewed Russian gasoline exports and weak driving demand.
The market is now focused on OPEC's upcoming meeting and potential decisions regarding production cuts, with uncertainty about oil prices in 2024. The overall sentiment suggests a recent shift towards a bearish outlook. Greg suggests that even yesterday and this morning, we're seeing some indication that there is some opportunistic buying ahead of this meeting.
Vincent weighs with his Trade Idea of the week, to go short in the Jan/Feb Sing 0.5 spread.
Links below to Greg and Vincent's LinkedIn pages:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
In this special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, hosted by Onyx Capital Group's CEO Greg Newman, we sit down with Chief Revenue Officer Miles Hempsall to discuss Miles' journey within the world of oil derivatives.
Miles shares his ethos on building commercial success, the challenges and opportunities of creating value in research and data businesses, and his vision for the future of Onyx in this open and candid discussion.
To watch the Video Podcast, click here https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk6cXhuBi73qO9OUcK1JPeDy
To learn more about Chief Revenue Officer, Miles Hempsall, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/mileshempsall/
To learn more about Chief Executive Officer, Greg Newman, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
#Business #businessphilosophy #crude #oil #leadership
Onyx Research Analyst Martha Dowding joins Onyx Capital Group CEO Greg Newman for a market update, a discussion on the growth of oil demand growth (noting an increase to 4 million barrels per day despite challenges), and Martha recommends her Trade Idea of the week is to long the Q1 regrade due to shifting weather forecasts in Asia.
Greg expresses scepticism about forecasting demand and emphasizes the significance of the supply side, particularly the commitment to U.S. shale oil production. The increasing supply trend, suggests a potential need for creative solutions like bilateral agreements to manage inventories and fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Link below to Greg and Martha's Linked In pages:
Greg Newman:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
The team discusses the current Brent flat price (around $83/bbl), with prices down due to concerns about China's economic situation and traders now discounting geopolitical risk. Greg, Vincent, and Martha mention a decline in managed money positions in recent weeks, contributing to an overall bearish outlook in the oil market. Vincent predicts the bullish factor in the market for Q4.
Greg expresses a lack of confidence in the direction of the crude oil market due to various factors, including OPEC's actions, while highlighting conviction in the gasoline market.
Martha brings forward her trade idea for the week. She’s been looking at gasoline recently which has seen a strong physical market in the East and Europe, with the consensus being that east is powering the market at the moment and in order to show that we are going to go long, we think the best risk reward for this is in the front 92 spread.
Onyx Researchers Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg to discuss the main stories of the week, including the impact of the Israil / Gaza conflict on the market - Crude oil remains below $90/bbl and has fallen to $85/bbl week-on-week as Israel’s ground operations in Gaza remained limited, easing concerns of escalation into the wider region. The impact of weather on gasoil is discussed: the weather hasn’t been cold enough to inspire bullish attitudes and the weather is pretty mild for this time of year. The degree of impact from the continued Panama Canal delays is also discussed.
As another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, today we’ll hear from some of the women on the Onyx Team in Leadership roles.
This episode is hosted by Alexandra Carlon, Head of Media & Marketing. She interviews Manny Sandhu, Head of Crude, Maria Boixados, Head of Direct Trading and Polly Cooper, Senior Associate Commercial Manager about the realities of Leadership in a predominately male industry.
They have an open discussion about everything from their leadership styles to the importance of practicing resilience in an intense environment and even discuss if crying at work as a woman is appropriate or something to avoid completely.
Each shed light on how much they’ve grown and built confidence in their time at Onyx and look back at how far they’ve come.
Links to Alex, Manny, Maria and Polly's Linked In below:
Alexandra Carlon:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexandra-carlon-421230193/
Manny Sandhu:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/manny-sandhu-9927177b/
Maria Boixados:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/maria-boixados-prio-03494471/
Polly Cooper:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/polly-cooper-311a88122/
Onyx Researchers Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg to discuss the main stories of the week, including the large oil and gas merges and acquisitions. ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer and this is pretty much doubling down in shale oil, which is only strengthening the U.S. economy and energy security.
Greg discusses the significant impact of the derivative market on the oil and gas industry, highlighting the historical shift from independent-driven production with hedging to a more consolidated and less systematically hedged market and the potential for decreased selling flow volatility due to larger majors entering the shale field.
Martha, Vincent and Greg examine the pricing dynamics of December contracts in the context of geopolitical sentiment and emphasize the need for diversification beyond simply buying or selling oil. Greg highlights the potential for retail investors to engage in more sophisticated trading strategies, particularly focusing on East v West naphtha contracts as a way to profit from current global events.
The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, and the potential for further escalations has led the crude oil market to experience a significant price increase in Brent and WTI, posting a near 6% gain on Friday (the highest daily percentage gain since April).
Greg, Vincent and Martha ask (and answer) the question: Is $100 Oil back on the menu?
Make sure to view this episode on YouTube if you’d like to follow along with the on screen graphics.
CEO and Onyx Founder Greg Neman joins Research Associate Vincent Wu to discuss the Geopolitical Risk Premium and how the attacks on Israel have caused a bullish reaction. But the question is, what will happen to prices based on Iran’s role in the tensions in the Middle East?
Vincent gives an update for what happened in the market last week. There was more volatility, refinery margins coming off and bearish EIA stats showing weaker gasoline demand and inventory build, which triggered a very bearish reaction in both flat price and cracks, which Brent came off by $5 in a day!
Vincent backs in his Trade Idea of the week as go long in the Gasnaph.
With the interest rate worries continuing, the strong US dollar and products weak it begs the question as to “how are we not rallying?”
The Research team discusses the complete weakness in RBBR right now.Although it’s very weak in the futures, the end user isn't seeing the good effects of this.
Greg dives into a deep discussion into over-thinking and risk-reward strategy. While Audrey and Vincent bring some great trade ideas to the table.
If you would like to watch on Youtube, you can follow along with the graphics discussed on screen with the team. Make sure to like and subscribe. If you have any questions you’d like us to answer on the podcast, make sure to send us a message on Linked In.
You can find us at Onyx Capital Group - https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/?viewAsMember=true
Will an oil price rally mean higher airfares? As people are looking to purchase flights home for Christmas, we of course notice that prices are drastically higher. Although this is a classic case of dynamic pricing, we also need to consider the role Brent plays in all of this, as there’s a clear sensitivity around $100 per barrel and $120 on the products.
Join the Onyx team for a market update, covering high flat prices, demand destruction and how this will affect airlines. Greg, Audrey, Vincent and Martha discuss what’s happening to the outright prices this week, the refinery margin change as well as their trade ideas, highlighting how China’s Golden week holiday will play into prices.
If you would like to suggest a topic of discussion for the podcast, please send us a message on linked in. You can find us at Onyx Capital Group - https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/?viewAsMember=true
Learn more about the Onyx Team:
Greg Newman, CEO & Founder: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Audrey Byrne, Research Associate: https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
Vincent Wu, Research Associate: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding, Research Analyst: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Hiring the right people is key to any business's success. In this special episode, Greg is joined by John Beckwith, the Chief People Officer of Onyx Capital Group, to discuss the importance of proper recruitment, building strong business foundations, and what makes a great leader.
John and Greg explain the harsh realities that CEOs are met with, what qualities exceptional managers possess, and how climbing the corporate ladder can impact professional and personal relationships with colleagues.
John provides insight into his role at Onyx and shares his wealth of previous experience, which led him to this role.
What constitutes your highest value employee? Just how important is it to not compromise on your foundational principles? And - what are the key ingredients for rapid growth in business?
To learn more about ONYX Capital Group, head to our website; Home | Onyx Capital Group
To watch the Video Podcast, click here https://youtu.be/CMQ8pE063yk
To learn more about Chief People Officer Greg Beckwith, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-beckwith-110b1357/
To learn more about Chief Executive Officer, Greg Newman, check out his Linked In https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Business #businessphilosophy #careeradvice #hiring #people
The Onyx Research team: Audrey, Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg Newman for a market update. Vincent discusses his first attendance to APPEC and the headlines that have since come out about trade houses and majors signalling bullish again after a lull this year. Which leaves us asking the question; what does Q4 hold?
The LNG plant strikes in Australia saw workers at Chevron (which accounts for 5% of global supply) walk off the job on Friday after talks broke down. Martha poses an interesting question; is a strike a big enough threat to weaponize energy prices?
Greg and the team analyse how the LNG Strike can affect psychological levels, influence how people set their targets and change how people take profit or stop out, shedding light on what this might mean for the market in the next five years.
If you wish to watch this as a video and follow along with the graphs and data discussed, please head over to our Youtube channel here: https://youtu.be/1nqhR80BF0s
This week Greg is joined by Audrey as they discuss Onyx's futures report, building momentum in the crude market, and how the media narrative could play in to this anticipated rally.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Audrey Byrne
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
In this special episode, Greg speaks to English and New Zealand national boxing champion, Amy Andrew, about her life and career.
Find Amy on instagram here https://www.instagram.com/amyandrewboxing/
Greg Newman https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Greg and the research team discuss the past week in LNG, share two trade ideas and provide some insight into Japan's energy markets.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu/
Audrey Byrne
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
Director of Brokerage, Harry, and podcast regular Ehsan join Greg this week. They discuss strength in Naphtha, how oil swaps contracts are interconnected and the media narrative around the latest oil rally.
Watch on YouTube here to follow along with referenced visuals. https://youtu.be/7SYkggRDSys
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Harry Campion
https://www.linkedin.com/in/harrycampionuk/
Joining Greg once again are Ehsan, Audrey and Vincent. The team review the Q2 financial reports for the big 6. And - a technical breakdown of how ETF flows interact with the oil market.
Watch on YouTube here to follow along with visuals.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu/
Audrey Byrne
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
This week Greg is joined by Ehsan, Vincent & Audrey. What are the market mechanisms behind the recent rally in gasoline? And - what impact will the issuing of 100 new North Sea contracts have on production?
Watch on YouTube here to follow along with referenced visuals. https://youtu.be/qA-1HOGjQ_Q
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu/
Audrey Byrne
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
Joining Greg this week are Mackenzie and Alec, senior brokers at Onyx Capital Group, as they share insights into their unique roles. Discover how the brokerage model is adapting to meet the needs of a new generation of traders and explore the value of information and expertise in a rapidly changing market.
A must listen if you're curious about the inner workings of the oil market and the crucial role brokers play.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Mackenzie Day
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilbroker-uk/
Alec Davies
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilbroker/
Greg is joined by Martha, Vincent & Audrey for this episode. What does the future look like for OPEC+? And - what will the impact of China's diversification strategy mean for global oil trade?
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding
https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu/
Audrey Byrne
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
Onyx was co-founded in 2016 by Omar Kayaam and Greg Newman. After their success building and trading their own market-making desks at Mandara Capital, they left to start their own company with a view to capitalise on the rapidly evolving oil derivatives market.
Seven years later - Onyx is the largest liquidity provider in oil derivatives, trading over 25 billion paper barrels a year and maintaining an average of 20% market share within oil swaps. So - how did they do it?
Greg Newmanhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/ Omar Kaayamhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/omar-naveed-kayaam
Ehsan, Vincent & Audrey join Greg for this episode. On the agenda is the bullish momentum in Brent and Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its voluntary cuts.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu/
Audrey Byrne
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
The definitive book on financial oil markets is here! Greg speaks to performance expert and old friend James King about the release of his new book 'World of Oil Derivatives'. Greg talks about why he wrote the book and why now is the perfect time for a resource like this in the market.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James King
https://www.linkedin.com/in/acceleratingexcellence/
Ehsan & Vincent join Greg for this episode. The team touch on market influencers, value investing and why the oil derivatives market is going to present great opportunities for retail traders.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu/
This week, Greg is joined by Audrey & Vincent. Audrey asks whether markets are ready to handle AI-generated images and why humans are so bad at spotting them. Vincent looks at what the bloc can do to 'Make OPEC great again' and the team discuss S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at highest levels since April '22.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderiva...
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-w...
Audrey Byrne
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
energy #politics #oilandgas #education #trading #europe #OPEC
In this episode the Onyx Research team react to the outcome of the latest OPEC+ meeting and the Saudi output pledge.
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Martha Dowding
https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
In this episode Greg Newman and Vincent Wu discuss the market dynamics surrounding another potenital OPEC+ cut. Plus - insight into the genesis and growth of #WuFridays
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Greg Newman speaks to the Onyx Data team. Discover how the integration of data-driven strategies is revolutionising decision-making processes, enhancing operational efficiency, and fuelling innovation within the oil swaps landscape.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Adam Butler
https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-butler-57629966/
Tom Dyson
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dyson-5108aa12b/
In this episode Greg Newman and the Onyx Research team discuss the resurgence in the markets. Plus - will OPEC cut again?
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Audrey Byrne:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
On the agenda this week is the evolution of trading culture. Plus - how did we build our research team here at Onyx? And - how much recognition are financial flows getting in the derivatives market today?
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Audrey Byrne:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
This week; the team discusses BP's profits hitting $5B whilst shares slip on slowing buybacks. Plus - how much do we know about diesel and gasoline being smuggling out of Iran? And - is trading at all like gambling?
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Audrey Byrne:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
In this episode Greg Newman and the Onyx Research team discuss Chinese fuel demand, weak refinery margins, and the natural gas market.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Audrey Byrne:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
Greg Newman is joined once again by the Onyx Research team. In this episode - the team discuss Just Stop Oil, the future of renewables and recession fears.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Vincent Wu:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Audrey Byrne:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
Martha Dowding
https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
We're back! Greg Newman is joined by the Research team in Onyx's brand new studios. In this episode - the team discuss OPEC+ cuts, the media's reaction and much more.
Greg Newman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
Vincent Wu:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Audrey Byrne:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/audrey-byrne-a32009183/
We start the new season with some new traders. Greg is joined by two of Onyx Commodities freshest recruits Tara Uttamaram & Pranav Menon.
They discuss how to become a junior trader, the ways in which perceptions of trading in graduates has changed and the importance of succession.
For those interested in a career in financial oil trading, this episode is for you.
In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Massah, Analytics Associate at Onyx Advisory, returns. Greg and Ehsan take a detailed look at current market dynamics across products and look ahead to what could be some turbulence to come, as margin hedging flows come under pressure.
You can find both Greg and Ehsan on LinkedIn.
Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah, Analytics Associate at Onyx Capital Advisory
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst/
What does it take to be a trader at Onyx?
On this week’s episode of the podcast Greg is joined by co-founder of Onyx and Director of Trading, Omar Kayaam. They reflect on the Onyx journey, what qualities it takes to succeed in a trading environment and current market volatility.
You can find both Greg and Omar on LinkedIn
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Omar Kayaam, Co-Founder at Onyx Capital Group
https://www.linkedin.com/in/omar-naveed-kayaam
In this week’s episode, Greg speaks with Managing Partner of New Climate Ventures, Eric Rubenstein. The pair speak about the robustness of the carbon market in the face of economic volatility, the momentum created by consumer demand, and the reality of trading carbon.
You can find both Greg and Eric on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Eric Rubenstein, Managing Partner of New Climate Ventures
https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric--rubenstein/
In this week’s episode, Greg is joined by Erik Rakhou, co-author of ‘Touching Hydrogen Future’, a free to download book that presents a vision of Hydrogen’s potential in economies globally.
They discuss the practical steps necessary to successfully integrate Hydrogen into energy markets. From transportation to price discovery.
You can download the book here. https://europeangasmarket.eu
And you can find Greg on LinkedIn here.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
In this week’s episode, Greg explains the crisis around Russian oil and gas supply, the response from OPEC and why the upcoming changes to the Dated Brent contract are so significant. Find Greg on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Ehsan Massah, Analytics Associate at Onyx Advisory.
You can find both Greg and Ehsan on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Ehsan Massah, Analytics Associate at Onyx
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/oilanalyst
Season 4, Episode 5Greg is joined by Bjarne Schieldrop. They discuss how a small move of the geopolitical needle can have massive ramifications on a huge bulk of potential supply in the market.
You can find both Greg and Bjarne on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/bjarneschieldrop/
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Season 4, Episode 4:
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Dr Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
**They discuss the impact of potential loss of Russian oil supplies on the oil market, the Saudi response to the Iran deal and the urgency surrounding the North Sea Contract.
You can find both Greg and Bassam on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO:*https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/* Dr Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies:**https://uk.linkedin.com/in/bassam-fattouh-a63a2523
Season 4, Episode 3:
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
You can find both Greg and Mike on LinkedIn:
Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Citi Group's Ed Morse.
They discuss Citi's view on oil markets, whether there will be a supply correction by Q1 and why his outlook for oil is slated towards the bearish side.
You can find both Greg and Ed on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Edward Morse, Managing Director & Global Head of Commodity Research at Citi Group
https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-morse-3440157
S4 E1
We're BACK!
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Jay Maroo, the lead Crude Analyst at Vortexa. They discuss Russia’s influence on global oil flows and the impact of potential sanctions. Plus - why is the North Sea physical market especially tight right now?
You can find both Greg and Jay on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jay Maroo, Lead Crude Analyst at Vortexa
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-m-336a3633/
Season 3 Episode 9
In this episode Greg is joined by Harry Campion, the director of Brokerage at Onyx Advisory. They discuss Harry’s path to broking, why he chose it and the future of the industry. Plus - what makes a good broker? Harry’s advice for young people getting into the industry.
Harry joined Onyx Commodities at inception as a Senior Trader, starting with Fuel Oil before moving on to run the first LPG desk at Onyx and then on to run the US Crude Grades desk.
You can find both Greg and Harry on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Harry Campion, Director of Brokerage at Onyx Advisory
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/harrycampionuk
Season 3 Episode 8
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Sarah-Jane Flaws, a Senior Associate at Onyx Advisory. Sarah-Jane gives the view from Onyx Insight and they discuss what’s going on in the early parts of this year.
You can find both Greg and Sarah-Jane on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Sarah-Jane Flaws, Senior Associate at Onyx Advisory
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-jane-flaws-92247363/
Follow us!
The platform: https://bit.ly/3FTZpcx
Linkedin: Flux-live
Instagram: Fluxliquidityhub
Twitter: fluxlivetv
Season 3 Episode 7
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Manny, the head of Crude at Onyx. They discuss the flat price resurgence and the ins and outs of Dated Brent. Plus Manny explains why trader mentalities need to change when it comes to attitudes towards market participants; adapt or die.
You can find both Greg and Manny on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Manny Sandhu, Head of Crude at Onyx Commodities
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/manny-sandhu-9927177b
Season 3, Episode 6
2021 is nearly over. Greg and Sarah-Jane discuss how traders have done and this year’s winners and losers.
You can find both Greg and Sarah-Jane on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Sarah-Jane Flaws, Senior Associate at Onyx Advisory
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-jane-flaws-92247363/
Season 3, Episode 5
In this week’s episode Greg is joined by Darina, the presenter of Flux Live to discuss Russia-Euro tensions and their impact on the gas market. Darina explains why traders can’t ignore the cryptocurrency market. Plus - Dr Yousef Alshammari, CEO of Cmarkits explains why he believes the oil market will be oversupplied in 2022.
You can find both Greg and Darina on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Darina El Zein, Presenter at Flux Live
https://www.linkedin.com/in/darina-el-zein-583311198/
Season 3, Episode 4
Oil, stock and even cryptocurrency markets were rattled after the World Health Organization on Friday declared Omicron a “variant of concern”. In today's podcast, Greg and Julian discuss Omicron, Brent sell-off and slipped disks.
You can find both Greg and Julian on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Julian Keites
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jkeites/
Season 3, Episode 3
With the recent volatility in the crude market and eyes on the OPEC+ meeting next week - Greg and Sarah-Jane discuss the Gulf Coast, refinery margins outlook and the associated oil swaps. Sarah-Jane gives her highlights from this week’s Onyx Insight Research.
You can find both Greg and Sarah-Jane on LinkedIn:
Greg Newman, Onyx Capital Group’s CEO
https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Sarah-Jane Flaws, Senior Associate at Onyx Advisory
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-jane-flaws-92247363/
Flux aims at delivering a new take on the Oil market by sharing views on topics such as digitisation, modern challenges & trading financial oil markets.
Follow us!
Linkedin: @flux-live
Instagram: @fluxliquidityhub
Season 3, Episode 1
We're thrilled to present our podcast 'World of Oil Derivatives' hosted by Greg Newman.
Flux aims at delivering a new take on the Oil market by sharing views on topics such as digitisation, modern challenges & trading financial oil markets.
Follow us!
Linkedin: @flux-live
Instagram: @fluxliquidityhub
In this episode we explore the evolution of data analytics and technology in oil markets, which gained considerable traction in the last 5 years.
We are joined by co-Founder and CEO of Vortexa Fabio Kuhn
In this episode we explore commodity exchanges, counterparty risk and financialisaton of oil products post Dodd-Frank.
We are joined by the Head of Oil Market Research for the Intercontinental Exchange, Michael Wittner, as we discuss the evolution of the oil derivatives market with the introduction of cleared trading and how this has reduced counterparty risk. Already this has led to much greater access to trading oil derivatives, however we also look at how this may open up even further with the ever growing interest from retail money into financial markets.
In this episode we explore the role of physical oil traders and how they supply crude and products around the globe, as well as their influence on the derivatives market.
We are joined by Co-Founder and CEO of Sparta Commodities, Felipe Elink Schuurman, as he shares his extensive experience and unique insights into the world of physical oil trading.
In our first episode we are joined by the Managing Partner of Audentia Capital, Chris Newman, to discuss Commodity Trade Finance and the Evolving Role of Investment Banks. Within this we explore the need for commodity trade financing in physical oil trading and how the previously dominant position of the banks has been eroded by the rise of cleared exchanges, increasing transparency and implementation of stricter regulations.
We continue our mini-series this week with Head of Commercial Rich Rawlinson introducing Andreja our Head of HR, who talks about her trajectory and her experience in HR at Onyx.
Onyx CEO Greg Newman and Head of Commercial Rich Rawlinson talk about Oil Hedging. Offering insight into why some companies are daunted by hedging, why hedging doesn’t have to be complicated, how to effectively mimic your physical exposure, choosing the right contract and why some companies that think they are hedging but are actually speculating.
As we start a new year, Onyx CEO Greg Newman, reviews 2019 and 6 of the major events which drove the oil price. In a year of multiple unplanned supply outages and fears over global growth due to the US China trade war, 2019 was not short of uncertainty and volatility.
This week we introduce Harry Campion (Partner and Head of US Grades), who talks about his experience at Onyx Commodities and in this industry.
In this episode, Alex Clayton, Nathaniel Loo and Amarjit Bhati - Junior Traders at Onyx Capital Group; speak about their day to day experiences at Onyx.
They cover different topics, in detail, from their own experience. If you ever wondered what the life of a Junior Trader is this podcast tell us the real truth.
In this podcast, CEO of Onyx Capital Group Greg Newman discusses speculative bubbles and how the oil swaps market is particularly susceptible to them. He goes on to site examples that have occurred recently, whilst introduces the danger of the vast speculative open interest that currently exists ahead of the IMO 2020 regulation change.
In this episode, CEO of Onyx Capital Group Greg Newman is joined by two traders from Onyx Commodities who have come through the Onyx Trader Development Program, Benedict Williams and Ahria Roushanbakhti. The team discuss together the emergence of severe dislocations in compliant and non-compliant fuel prices ahead of the shift in regulations for bunker fuel ahead of the IMO 2020 regulations, questioning the logic of the price action and the influence of derivatives on the physical market.They go into detail on the current choices for bunker end users from an economic perspective, the price the market is valuing depressurization and introduce the concept of purchasing power that is still in the hands of the end users.
In this episode, Greg Newman (CEO of Onyx Capital Group) and Luke McDermott (Partner and Head of LPG desk at Onyx Commodities) speak about Luke's history and trajectory getting to where he is today; 40% of the Global Oil swaps market. Luke tells us what it takes to fully understand markets, how hard he worked to get where he is, how the barrel prices and Oil derivatives in general.
In this episode we look at the next step in hedging oil price exposure choosing the right contract. We introduce the concept of basis risk and liquidity or entering and exiting contracts with efficiency. We then move on to the need to work through time, product location, specification and finally execution to build the ultimate hedging solution.
“At what point do you acknowledge exposure in your PnL?”
Richard Rawlinson, Head of Commercial at Onyx Advisory demonstrates the 10 stage Onyx methodology following organisational processes from vendor sourcing, requisition order, approval, purchase order, good received, data capture, invoice matching, payment, tracking and finally, reconciliation.
Remember - “If you are not hedging, you are speculating”.
In this week's episode, Greg Newman, Co-CEO of Onyx Capital Group - the world's largest oil derivative liquidity provider - and Richard Rawlinson, Head of Commercial at Onyx Advisory, start at the very beginning; what actually is hedging? They provide their own definition as well as common misconceptions, mistakes and bad practices that are rife in the business today. They emphasise how hedging is all about fixing cash flow by mimicking physical exposure and that, if you're not hedging, you are speculating!