View from the EDGE: Recent Episodes
3EDGE Asset Management
In this month’s 3EDGE View From the EDGE®, Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, Head of Research and Deputy CIO, provide our latest outlook for global capital markets in light of the ongoing rally in equities.
SubscribeThe post View From the EDGE® July 2026: The Importance of Diversification appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
This conversation comes amidst a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, shifting rate expectations, and growing pressure on richly valued AI-related stocks.
In this month’s 3EDGE View From the EDGE: The Rally in Equities Continues, Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, Head of Research and Deputy CIO, provide our latest outlook for global capital markets in light of the ongoing war in Iran.
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In this month’s 3EDGE View from the EDGE®: War in the Middle East, Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, Head of Research and Deputy CIO, provide our latest outlook for global capital markets in light of the ongoing war in Iran.
SubscribeThe post View From the EDGE® April 2026: A Two-Week Ceasefire, but Uncertainty Remains appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
In this month’s 3EDGE View from the EDGE®: War in the Middle East, Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, Head of Research and Deputy CIO, provide our latest outlook for global capital markets in light of the ongoing war in Iran.
SubscribeThe post View From the EDGE® March 2026: War in the Middle East appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
In this month's View From the EDGE® – U.S. Range Bound, International Moving Ahead – Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen share our latest outlook for global capital markets, with a focus on U.S., Japanese, and Indian equities, as well as gold.
SubscribeThe post View From the EDGE® February 2026: U.S. Range Bound, International Moving appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
This View from the EDGE® video focuses on What’s In Store for 2026? Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, Deputy CIO, turn the page on 2025 and share our firm's most recent outlook for the global capital markets.
We hope you can join us for our Quarterly Webinar on January 15th at 12:15pm ET, where we will review our recent performance and discuss our market outlook. Please let me know if you need the registration link.
Tap or click on the image to open the January 2026 View From the EDGE®
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View From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the December 2025 View From the EDGE®
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SubscribeThe post View From the EDGE® December 2025: Santa Claus Rally? Or Are We Past the Peak? appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
s Going to be a Bumpy Ride. They review our outlook for the global capital markets, including the various asset classes we cover, and discuss how our model might guide our investment decisions and prepare us for the months ahead.
s View From the EDGE® report, Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist, and Eric Biegeleisen, Deputy CIO, discuss the results of our latest research across the global capital markets. They review our outlook for the various asset classes we model and how that might guide our future investment decisions.
View From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the September 2024 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
SubscribeThe post View From the EDGE® September 2024 – All Eyes on the Fed appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the August 2024 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post View From the EDGE® August 2024: Is the Stock Market Rally Sustainable? appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the July 2024 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post View From the EDGE® July 2024: Summer’s Party in Equities Continues – For Now appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the June 2024 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post View From the EDGE® June 2024 – Divergent Monetary Policies–Now What? appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the May 2024 View From the EDGE®
Click here to view/download the May 2024 View From the EDGE®PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post View From the EDGE® May 2024 – Sustained High Rates, Sustained Rally? appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the April 2024 View From the EDGE®
Click here to view the April 2024 edition of View From the EDGE®PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post View From the EDGE® April 2024 – Markets at a Crossroads? appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the March 2024 View From the EDGE®
Click here to download the March 2024 View From the EDGE®PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post A Time for Balance – View From the EDGE® March 2024 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the February 2024 View From the EDGE®
Click here to download the February 2024 View From the EDGE®PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post Market Melt-Up: Danger Zone? – View From the EDGE® February 2024 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the January 2024 View From the EDGE®
Click here to view the January 2024 View From the EDGE®PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
https://youtu.be/he1vY8-y6WYThe post 2023 in the Books! – View From the EDGE® January 2024 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the December 2023 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post Rate Hikes to Rate Cuts? – View From the EDGE® December 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the November 2023 View From the EDGE®
Click here to view the November 2023 View From the EDGE®PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post Investing in a Time of Radical Uncertainty – View From the EDGE® November 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the October 2023 View From the EDGE®
Click here to view the 3EDGE View From the EDGE® October EditionPDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post Markets on Thin Ice – View From the EDGE® October 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the September 2023 View From the EDGE®
Click here to download the View From the EDGE® September EditionPDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post To Hike or Not to Hike? – View From the EDGE® September 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
The past few weeks have seen the world’s major central banks take center stage as rates rise around the globe. With this backdrop, Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen review our latest outlook for the global capital markets and various asset classes in the August 2023 edition of View From the EDGE®.
The post Central Banks on Parade – View From the EDGE® August 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen review our latest outlook in the July View From the EDGE®
The post Fiscal Stimulus Offsets Monetary Tightening (for now) – View From the EDGE® July 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
3EDGE Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen bring you the June View From the EDGE®. They review our outlook for the global capital markets and various asset classes and how that might guide our investment decisions as we enter the summer of 2023.
The post Debt Ceiling Resolved-What’s Next? – View From the EDGE® June 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the May 2023 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post Sell in May? – View From the EDGE® May 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the April 2023 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post Is a Fed Pivot on the Horizon? – View From the EDGE® April 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the March 2023 View From the EDGE®
PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post More Rate Hikes Ahead! The Fed Continues to Reset – View From the EDGE® March 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
Tap or click on the image to open the February 2023 View From the EDGE®
Click here to view the February 2023 View From the EDGE®PDF Viewer: On a desktop browser, click the printer icon in the top right to send file to print.
The post Can the Fed Stick the Landing? – View From the EDGE® February 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
The post With 2022 Now in the Rearview, Do Inflation and the Fed Still Call the Tune? – View From the EDGE® January 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
SubscribeView From the EDGE® is a monthly report produced by 3EDGE Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Eric Biegeleisen, CFA®. In this series, we review our high-level outlook for the coming month across the various asset classes 3EDGE invests in.
View From the EDGE® is made available in the form of a written newsletter, a YouTube commentary video, and an iTunes audio podcast, all of which can be accessed below.
The post Markets Anticipate Potential Shift in Fed Policy – View From the EDGE® December 2022 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
As we do at the beginning of each month, Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen bring you the latest View From the EDGE®. They review our outlook for the global capital markets and various asset classes and how that guides our investment decisions.
The post The Fed Declares War on Inflation – View From the EDGE® September 2022 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
Despite the recent rebound in U.S. equities, our model research suggests that the U.S. still faces the threat of stagflation. As we do at the beginning of each month, Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen bring you the latest View From the EDGE® – Threat of Stagflation Persists (viewing time a short 9 minutes). They review our outlook for the global capital markets and various asset classes and how that guides our investment decisions.
The post Threat of Stagflation Persists – View From the EDGE® August 2022 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
Fritz and Eric review the output of the 3EDGE model and how it might guide our investment decisions
The post Caution: Challenging Market Environment Ahead – View From the EDGE® July 2022 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
3EDGE’s Chief Investment Strategist, Fritz Folts, and Deputy CIO, Eric Biegeleisen, share their latest View From the EDGE: Bear Market Rally?
The post Bear Market Rally? – View From the EDGE® June 2022 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
For some time now, we have been discussing the topic of a regime shift as inflationary forces and rising interest rates cause a significant shift in the investing landscape. In our April View From the EDGE®, "The Beginning of the End?", Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen discuss what lies ahead based on the latest output of 3EDGE’s global capital markets model.
The post The Beginning of the End? – View From the EDGE® May 2022 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
In this edition of View from the EDGE®, Fritz Folts and Eric Biegeleisen will discuss uncertainty in the markets and stagflation in the U.S.
The post March View from the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen review our latest outlook in the February View From the EDGE®. They discuss the outlook for major asset classes we model at 3EDGE and do a deeper dive into the changes the model is detecting.
The post February View from the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
View the PDF version here. Equities: U.S. Equities: Last year we identified the early stages of a regime shift, whereby an extended period of falling inflation and interest rates could give way to a period of rising inflation and interest rates; recent events suggest the regime shift may now be underway. The consequence of a...
The post January View from the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
View the PDF version here. Equities: U.S. equities continue to hover around their November highs and remain significantly overvalued. A recent widening in high yield credit spreads in the U.S. has somewhat negatively impacted the attractiveness of the U.S. equity market. Beyond retiring the word ‘transitory’ in describing the inflationary pressures in the U.S., Fed...
The post December View from the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
View the PDF version here. Equities: U.S. equities have continued to reach record highs pushing the S&P 500 even further into significantly overvalued territory. At the conclusion of the most recent FOMC meeting in early November, the Fed officially announced its plan to begin to taper its current $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. However,...
The post November View from the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
View the PDF version here. Equities: The outlook for U.S. equities has improved somewhat – though not uniformly so. Valuations continue to be near all-time highs for large-cap growth U.S. equities, which have benefitted from an extended regime of ultra-low interest rates. However, cyclical, value-oriented stocks offer more compelling valuations. In addition, should interest rates...
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View the PDF Version here. Equities: The outlook for U.S. equities remains mixed. Valuations continue to be stretched to historically high levels, sparking comparisons to bubbles that have occurred throughout market history. While the Fed insists that recent inflationary pressures will prove temporary, inflation could last longer and become more problematic during the remainder of...
The post September View from the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
View the PDF Version here. Equities: U.S. Equities: By our measures the U.S. equity markets remain significantly overvalued as they continue to hover around all-time highs which is indicative of lower expected returns on average over the longer-term. While Fed Chair Powell indicated at the June FOMC meeting that the time had come to begin...
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Subscribe Download the PDF version here. Equities: U.S. Equities: While Fed Chair Powell was able to assuage fears of inflation taking root in the shorter term, concerns regarding more persistent inflation in the U.S. remain. Should this manifest in a more meaningful way it may signal a tighter Fed monetary policy including the potential for...
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Equities:
U.S. Equities: The U.S. equity market outlook is a bit more neutral currently given the tug of war between the positive impact of the global economic rebound and concerns about whether robust economic growth will prove to be inflationary, thereby prompting the Federal Reserve to withdraw its extraordinary monetary policy support sooner than anticipated. At the same time, equity markets in general, including the U.S., are continuing to benefit from accommodative central bank policies, narrowing credit spreads, and steepening yield curves.
India Equities: Our model research currently finds the India equity market to be attractive. Current struggles with the pandemic and the upcoming elections should encourage highly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies for an extended period and leave room for economic improvement once vaccinations ramp up. Additional factors that enhance the prospects for the Indian equity market include the potential for future economic growth as indicated by a steepening yield curve measure, a benign interest rate environment, and favorable long-term demographic trends.
Japanese equities remain attractive and should continue to benefit from narrowing high yield spreads, steepening yield curve measures, and positive investor psychology. In addition, the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic should benefit many of Japan’s largest corporations since they tend to export their products all over the world, including into the U.S.
European Equities: European companies should also continue to benefit from the sustained and extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus required to support the region because of a slower recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and inconsistent progress on vaccinations. In addition, a continued rotation from growth equities to the stocks of more cyclical companies that benefit more from the ongoing global economic recovery should continue to be positive for Europe. Early signs of increasing inflation in the Eurozone will need to be monitored.
China Equities: The model outlook for Chinese equities is currently neutral. While Chinese companies benefit from accommodative monetary policies as reflected in the favorable price momentum we’ve witnessed recently, the recent uptick in U.S. inflation, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and strengthening of the Chinese Yuan neutralizes the overall outlook in the short-term.
Fixed Income:
The bond market has been relatively stable recently, even in the face of economic data indicating signs of inflationary pressures throughout the economy as the U.S. emerges from the pandemic. U.S. Treasuries represent an unattractive risk-return trade-off at current yields as they continue to yield less than the market's expected inflation rate across nearly all maturities.
Caused in part by investors searching for yield, expectations for economic recovery, and the Fed's continued tacit support of the credit markets (corporate bonds), credit spreads - the difference between high-yield and investment-grade bond yields – have continued to narrow and junk bond issuance remains strong. However, with record amounts of corporate debt outstanding and with historically low yields for high-yield bonds, there is a heightened risk that any accident in the financial markets could cause credit spreads to widen abruptly.
Real Assets:
Gold has now recovered most of the declines that it suffered earlier in 2021 and continues to be supported by negative real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations). Gold could also benefit from future inflation prospects, particularly if the Fed maintains its stance on inflation being transient and sticking to its stated timeline on interest rate policy and bond-buying programs.
Commodities remain attractive due to the longstanding relative undervaluation of real assets and the prospect of a robust global economic recovery in the second half of 2021, as well as the prospects for a weaker U.S. dollar. Other factors positively impacting real assets include; appreciation of the Chinese Yuan, narrowing credit spreads, steepening global yield curves, and positive investor psychology.
About 3EDGE:
3EDGE Asset Management, LP, is a global, multi-asset investment management firm serving institutional investors and private clients. 3EDGE strategies act as tactical diversifiers, seeking to generate consistent, long-term investment returns, regardless of market conditions, while managing downside risks.
The primary investment vehicles utilized in portfolio construction are index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The investment research process is driven by the firm’s proprietary global capital markets model. The model is stress-tested over 150 years of market history and translates decades of research and investment experience into a system of causal rules and algorithms to describe global capital market behavior. 3EDGE offers a full suite of solutions, each with a target rate of return and risk parameters, to meet investors’ different objectives.
The post June View From the EDGE® appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.
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Equities:
U.S. Equities: Major U.S. equity market indices continue to reach all-time highs as well as record levels of overvaluation by our measure. However, even at elevated valuations, monetary and fiscal stimulus remains supportive. In addition, high-yield credit spreads continue to tighten even further. Our research model is indicating that a potential regime shift in the global capital markets could be underway. This is supported by an increasing focus on fiscal (government) spending and an increase in readings of inflation in many areas of the economy. Should such a regime shift continue there could be an additional rotation out of U.S. large-cap, high growth equities that have outperformed over the last several years and towards more cyclical U.S. value companies that are more closely tied to the growth of the real economy.
Japanese equities continue to be the most attractive equity asset class in our model research. Japan equities benefit from a more favorable valuation measure than other equity markets, a continued narrowing of high-yield credit spreads, a steepening yield curve and sustained monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan.
European Equities: European companies should continue to benefit from the sustained and extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus required to support the region because of a slower recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and inconsistent progress on vaccinations. Also, should the U.S. dollar resume its strengthening relative to the Euro, European equities could benefit since a material percentage of companies based in Europe export their products worldwide. Lower local exchange rates can help exporters either expand market share and / or profit margins due to the price advantages a lower exchange rate provides.
Emerging Market Equities: While the region still exhibits positive economics, it remains somewhat overvalued and our measure of investor psychology for the region has softened. Should increasing levels of inflation in the U.S. persist, this could prove to be a headwind for EM equities, offsetting the positive impact of a steepening U.S. yield curve and negatively impacting the attractiveness of EM equities. However, emerging market countries and their equity markets could benefit from U.S. fiscal stimulus measures given the degree to which the U.S. imports from emerging market countries.
Real Assets:
While gold struggled in Q1 2021, it continues to be supported by negative real (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) interest rates. During the first quarter, negative real rates climbed from around -110 bps to -60 bps. However, more recently they have retreated into the negative 80 bps range – a positive for Gold. Gold may also benefit from the recent fiscal stimulus package that was passed which could raise the prospects of future inflation in consumer prices, especially if the Fed also acts to further repress long-term bond yields. Gold is an asset class than can serve as a critical portfolio hedge against the prospects of future central bank money printing and financial repression over the longer term.
Commodities remain attractive due to the longstanding relative undervaluation of real assets and the prospect of a continued strong global economic recovery for the remainder of 2021. Other factors positively impacting real assets include: appreciation of the Chinese yuan, narrowing high-yield credit spreads, a steepening of U.S. and global yield curve measures and positive price momentum. If the U.S. dollar were to strengthen, it could present a risk for the commodities outlook.
About 3EDGE
3EDGE Asset Management, LP, is a global, multi-asset investment management firm serving institutional investors and private clients. 3EDGE strategies act as tactical diversifiers, seeking to generate consistent, long-term investment returns, regardless of market conditions, while managing downside risks. The primary investment vehicles utilized in portfolio construction are index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The investment research process is driven by the firm’s proprietary global capital markets mod-el. The model is stress-tested over 150 years of market history and translates decades of research and investment experience into a system of causal rules and algorithms to describe global capital mar-ket behavior. 3EDGE offers a full suite of solutions, each with a target rate of return and risk parameters, to meet investors’ different objectives.
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