Episode 530
00:00 Introduction
00:19 S&P 500 is at record high
01:18 Inflation and Fed rate hike
06:20 Stagflation not a problem for USA
06:50 Disruption of Strait of Hormuz
08:28 AI Bubble and Circular investing
13:57 Extreme daily stock price volatility
17:36 Sold Anheuser Busch InBev $BUD
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Episode 529
00:00 Introduction
00:48 Chinese Technology Threat
04:47 Lower Tech cost means more use cases: Technology lowers incremental cost
07:00 Technology is becoming a Utility
11:20 Is this a Tech Bear Market?
17:57 DotCom Bubble 2.0?
21:14 Nvidia has better valuation than Costco & Walmart and most of &P 500
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Episode 528
00:00 Introduction
00:31 Has Warren Buffett changed his view on Technology Stocks
06:18 Warren Buffett philanthropy
08:47 Berkshire Hathaway large cash position
13:14 China’s Moonshot AI
16:41 Regional Bank update
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Episode 527
00:00 Introduction
00:51 Notification of when I buy or sell a stock
01:28 Learn to identify stock trading patterns during a crisis
02:45 Stock Market rotation from Risk On to Risk Off
03:42 I sold non-core positions that are getting a bounce from Iran chaos
04:35 Raise cash and patiently wait in a Money Market Fund
05:57 Potential for an Amphibious Assault on Kharg Island
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Episode 526
00:00 Introduction
00:40 SpaceX dud IPO
02:01 Hormuz reignites
03:31 Railroad stocks outperform
05:31 Ignore the media noise
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Episode 525
00:00 Introduction
00:53 Winning Attitude
01:00 Cynical Optimism
01:45 Focus on what works
02:05 Insurmountable problems that no longer exist
02:26 Threat of nuclear war with USSR
03:56 Oil energy crisis that wasn’t
05:21 USA world’s largest Oil producer
05:55 Stop worrying
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Episode 524
00:00 Introduction
00:21 Market two steps forward one step back
01:33 Google glass half empty or half full
06:16 IPO pullbacks
07:25 Google In DOW Verizon Out
09:07 Honeywell Future
12:05 Fedex Freight Spinoff
14:00 Apple Price Hikes
16:07 Ciena
19:41 Oil Glut
22:51 Wealthsteading Anniversary
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Episode 523
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Gold and Silver not risk free
02:35 Bonds aren’t safe either
03:00 10 year Treasury dismal performance
04:23 Oil prices dropping
05:31 3 Best S&P 500 Sectors
08:00 Industrial Technology long term trend
09:00 I own Companies not Commodities
12:08 Technology, Materials, Industrials
13:37 You missed the bottom, not the opportunity
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Episode 522
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Nature of IPOs
02:30 SpaceX Future opportunities
03:22 No good or bad stocks
03:50 Elon Musk skeptic
04:38 Tesla over promise
06:49 SpaceX package bundle
08:40 Earthly opportunities Berkshire Hathaway home builder segment
10:40 SpaceX alternatives GSAT
11:40 Space is hard VSAT
12:43 Tesla performance
14:51 Want to invest in space look at the supply chain
15:25 Will investors sell Tesla to move into SpaceX
18:05 Ignore Media negativity
19:04 S&P 500 28.6% profit growth
21:16 Company backlogs
22:55 Space competition on the horizon
25:00 Starlink as a business expense?
26:50 Final thoughts- these profits are REAL
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Episode 521
00:00 Introduction
01:58 AI layoffs impact on commercial real estate
03:30 Logistic & Industrial real estate growth
05:05 Intel exponential performance of past 12 months
15:44 Boeing too big to fail … 2020 flashback
20:00 Next book: invest with the Illuminati
21:16 Nvidia upcoming earnings what for backorder issues
29:45 Alphabet is the best Deep State stock
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Episode 500 Celebrating the 500th episode of the Wealthsteading Podcast, this is the original 10 Wealth Building Principles, first recorded on Independence Day 2014.
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Episode 499 While the S&P 500 is only down a few percent, 65% of its constituents are in a correction, down at least 10%. Similarly, 44% are below their 200 day moving average.
So if you’re looking for a dip, look no further, there are plenty of bargains.
Last week I took an overweight position in the Financial Sector buying KBE, KRE, KIE & Visa.
All that and more in this episode.
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Episode 498 The media narrative is extreme negativity about the state of the economy and yet the stock market and GDP continue to expand. Why? Productivity, Deregulation, and Industrial Policy are good for corporate profits.
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Episode 497 Fred jumps from investment to investment, always chasing the headlines but never building wealth.
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Episode 496 The S&P 500 is just 2% from a record high but over 63% of stocks are in a correction, down by more than 10%. If you’re looking for bargains, you don’t have to wait for the market to tank, the bargains already exist. Don’t try to perfectly time the market. Early this year when the market was at a top, I bought and it worked out just fine. I’m not saying to rush out and buy, I’m currently sitting on over 20% cash. But I’m also not afraid to add to my positions because I have a long term perspective and stay diversified.
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Episode 495 Last Friday’ panic didn’t last long. I’ve been hoping for a pullback to buy the dip; but even if that doesn’t happen, that just reiterates the strength of this market. Bottom line, leadership remains strong and it’s mostly focused on the ancillary AI trade. What I call the convergence of Industrials and Tech.
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Episode 494 This past week I sold Disney. I think the company is plagued by bad management and is likely in trouble over the near term. In this episode I discuss how to identify Blue Chip stock business cycles and how to profit by swing trading in and out of them.
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Episode 493 Beware investing in zombie small cap stocks, 38% of the index is unprofitable.
If you’re interested in learning about the return of Nuclear Energy, please watch my recent appearance on the Survival Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYqf98Fv5Ok
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Episode 492 The title says it all.
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Episode 491 Introducing Joe Pugliano.
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Episode 490 A lightning round of reasons why the enthusiasm about Fed rate cuts may be misguided.
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Episode 489 There are 3 reasons not to like Apple short term and none of them have anything to do with Warren Buffett.
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Episode 488 Tariff inflation fears are back in the headlines; in a future episode I’ll discuss stagflation. Today I want to FOCUS your attentions on the “secret” that builds wealth: losses are limited & gains are infinite.
What makes John Pugliano tick? Watch this very insightful interview with Nicole from the Living Free in Tennessee Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/live/TVrGAUxNDHA?si=9KgQ1aqF4bs5GrsX
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Episode 487 Whether you’re looking for a spouse with excellent lifetime career earning potential or for a stock market growth opportunity that’s not limited to the narrow Mag7, consider the long term trend of electrification of the economy.
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Episode 486 How do you build a resilient business? Well, let’s talk about Lincoln Electric…
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Episode 485 Investment gurus lose money just like everyone else. 13F filings are stale news.
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Episode 454: The economy is driven by energy and right now the energy sector is THRIVING.
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Episode 453: The media just discovered we’re in a manufacturing recession. Should you be worried? Well, manufacturing has been contracting for two years, so it’s not a new problem. It’s just a new media narrative.
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Episode 452: US economy continues to grow…are you?
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Episode 451: Two weeks ago, the VIX volatility index spiked above 65; today everything is honky dory (:
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Episode 450: What started out as a quick commentary on current market conditions ended up digressing into rants and gems of wealth knowledge. This is evergreen content, listen to it more than once.
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Episode 449: Celebrating a decade of the Wealthsteading Podcast- earnSAVEinvest – that’s a cryptic message that BROKE people don’t understand!
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Episode 448: The Fed has cut their balance sheet reduction by more than 50% while keeping mortgage rates high.
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Episode 447: Just listen to this episode…
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Episode 446: Stubborn inflation & geopolitical instability are causing a stock market selloff. That shouldn’t come as a surprise to Wealthsteading Podcast listeners. So far, the decline is surprisingly mild. In this episode I discuss my rationale for taking a concentrated position in the Utility sector. LONG TERM Utility Stocks can offer a trifecta of benefits: Value-Growth-Defensive.
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Episode 445: The Fed likely won’t start cutting interest rates until June or July, that means we still have several months to enjoy 5% risk free rates. So now it’s time to start thinking about moving back up the risk scale.
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Episode 444: On a daily basis, markets are driven primarily by fear & greed. Ignore the economic gaslighting and focus on sound fundamentals.
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Episode 443: Why are investors and Wall Street ignoring the clear and present danger of geopolitical instability and escalation of war?
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Episode 442: Once again foreign, Emerging Markets and Chinese stocks are being touted as the next best investing opportunity. Maybe…maybe not.
TDI Podcast: Ai-Ai-O (852)
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Episode 441: Small Cap stocks are the canary-in-the-coalmine early warning system of the stock market and right now they’re underperforming. As an alternative to the IWM consider SPSM which screens for profitability.
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Episode 440: Happy New Year !!! Here’s some thoughts on closing out 2023 and ringing in 2024.
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Episode 439: 2024 Investing Themes- review & commentary
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Episode 438: Fed isn’t planning to hit 2% inflation target until end of 2026. Fed rate cuts in 2024 would keep the yield curve inverted.
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Episode 437: Layoffs at smaller companies appear to be on the rise. That’s good and bad news.
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Episode 426: Interest rates and monetary policy can’t solve the global supply conundrum. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: ——————————————————
Episode 425: The slowdown in Germany is characteristic of the general global malaise. But…German industrial giants have survived multiple world wars, they’ll survive this current situation.
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Episode 424: The major indexes have regained their 50dma but global trade is slowing as evident by the decline in exports from China, Germany & Japan. Short term markets are exuberant for peak interest rates but are ignoring the risk of structural shifts in the global economy.
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Episode 423: If the handful of tech stocks that have been propping up the Market are starting to stall, then perhaps the S&P 500 is headed lower.
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Episode 422: The Fitch downgrade of US debt caused almost all asset classes, including precious metals to go down…why?
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Episode 421: Listener question- why aren’t I investing in Small Cap stocks? Headlines- FOMC, 2nd Qtr Earnings, Leading Economic Indicators, Grain Prices, Multiple Expansion, Chinese & Japanese stocks….all that and more.
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Episode 420: Economic forecasts, PMI surveys, as well as market indicators like Metal & Petroleum prices are all pointing to a very mediocre global economy.
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Episode 419: Money Market Funds are paying yields at 15 year highs…that’s where most of my money is currently parked.
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Episode 418: Today we celebrate nine years of Wealthsteading… a daily disciplined methodical approach to taking stewardship of your assets.
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Episode 417: The is the audio portion of a midyear economic presentation given on June 27 2023; the full video can be seen at:
https://youtu.be/jm7LAbdbiHc
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Episode 416: Regardless of what the Fed does with interest rates, the global economy is slowing, inflation is sticky, and zombie companies are starting to file bankruptcy.
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Episode 415: “A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more…We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centers, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.” Charlie Munger, VC, Berkshire Hathaway
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Episode 414: The key advantage that individual investors have over large institutional investors is the ability to move to CASH in anticipation of a market decline.
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Episode 413: I park my money temporarily in a Money Market Fund to preserve the principal and keep it 100% liquid. The interest rate is a secondary consideration.
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Episode 412: The Market has been stagnant. I continue to believe there is more downside risk than short term upside potential.
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Episode 411: The Economy & Stock Market are at an inflection point…they could break up or down…my bias is to the downside. But either way, now is the time to prepare for the new company leadership that will eventually emerge.
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Episode 410: Hedging strategies like selling short, buying options contracts or inverse & leveraged ETFs can be costly and might result in a steep loss. Simply parking your money in a cash equivalent money market fund might be the least expense risk mitigation strategy.
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Episode 409: The Market is seemingly complacent about declining corporate profits. Did I mention that I’m ~ 90% in cash?
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Episode 408: The fact that banks don’t have enough money to cover deposits isn’t a failure of the system, it’s a design element.
Want to become rich? Stop thinking about wealth in terms of currency…production is the source of wealth.
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Episode 407: To reiterate…we’re not yet seeing a Black Swan event or a failure of the system. What’s happening in the economy is what should be anticipated during a Fed tightening cycle. What you’re witnessing isn’t a failure of the system, it’s the way the system is designed to work (by the Central Planners).
We’re currently in the contraction phase of the Business Cycle.
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Episode 406: Panic is suddenly gripping the Stock Market with fears of bank failures. Do you think Warren Buffett is scared? Or do you think he’s plotting how to make a HUGE profit on this crisis?
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Episode 405: The S&P 500 is again struggling to breakout above 4,000, as it hangs between its 50dma and 200dma. Over the past year, the Market has failed to form a consistent “V” or “W” recovery, which is extremely unusual. My concern is that the Stock Market is treading on thin ice.
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Episode 404: Seasonal effect, short squeeze, relief rally, dead cat bounce, suckers rally, catching a falling knife…all that and more in this episode. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 403: I’m concerned about two issues with the stock market. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 402: There’s been a notable shift in Stock Market technical indicators since Friday’s “unexpectedly” high employment numbers. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 401: Money is the most expensive in 16 years and the 3rd highest in over a generation. Regardless of Fed monetary policy, if corporate profits continue to decline, then just as during the DotCom Bubble and the Housing Bubble, the Stock Market would be extremely likely to have a hefty decline. [-50% peak-to-trough] SignContinue reading "Inflation is coming down BUT the VALUE of money is DANGEROUSLY high 230205"
Episode 400: There’s no secret to building wealth, it’s a simple formula = earn+save+invest. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 399: Single family residential real estate should fare much better than most people are expecting and not likely to see a 2008 style price collapse. Industrial real estate should continue to grow at a substantial pace as manufacturing continues to onshore. The negative areas of real estate will likely be brick & mortar retailers,Continue reading "Housing Sector could be bright spot in 2023 230126"
Episode 398: The Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy to burn off excesses in the economy and given the rebound of unprofitable MEME stocks, I think there’s ample underbrush to scorch. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 397: HAPPY NEW YEAR ! The Media is abuzz about the pending recession and how millionaires are pulling back spending and not wasting money. Let me tell you about self-made millionaires…they never waste money. That’s how they became millionaires. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 396: One of the best tips I have for improving your overall success rate is to keep a journal, and use the information for continual improvement. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 395: Want to improve your career satisfaction & compensation? Ask yourself these three questions. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 394: For me and my money, I want liquidity, so I’m using cash equivalent money market funds, which are currently paying at or near 4%. If you don’t have access to a money market fund, other good alternatives are 401k/403b Stable Value Funds or the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) G Fund. Sign up forContinue reading "Where to park cash reserves in a turbulent Stock Market 221220"
Episode 393: Earnings estimates for 2023 are being revised down sharply and if the Fed’s terminal rate gets to 5%, then valuations are extremely unfordable. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 392: The seasonal Santa Claus rally is in full effect, but I think two of the three drivers are head fakes. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 391: One of the best recession indicators is a rise in the unemployment rate. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 390: It’s an ominous sign whenever the Market consistently fails at a declining 200 day moving average. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 389: Of the several factors holding the Market back, I think the most critical is lack of sustainable stock leadership. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 388: The economy is hungover from the excesses of the pandemic. Hangovers are painful. They’re not fun. But they’re not fatal. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 387: A sell tripwire caused me to sell 30% of my portfolio. Here are two charts to explain why. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 386: If you sell, make sure you have a strategy to get back in. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 385: If you were an incumbent politician, wouldn’t you want a strong economy and stock market when you’re running for reelection? Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 384: The Federal Reserve is warning about how they’re prepared to cause pain by raising interest rates. The stock market has dropped based on those fears. But ultimately, who will suffer from higher interest rates? Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 383: The S&P 500 is back in rally mode, retracing more than half of the distance from the Bear market peak-to-trough. I remain cautiously optimistic, but beware of the bounce in highly speculative stocks…eventually fundaments matter. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 382: Speaking of apprenticeship, check out my recent visit to the Homesteady homestead: Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 381: The investor sentiment Fear & Greed cycle is comparable to a poorly paddled canoe. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 380: How the stock market performs at the end of each week is an important nuanced signal that can indicate investor sentiment. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 379: Second quarter earnings will be forthcoming…pay attention to forward earnings estimates, but regardless of what CEOs say, know that June’s PMI indicates an expanding economy. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 378: Happy 8th anniversary to the Wealthsteading Podcast. In this episode, I sum up the 10 Wealth Building Principles by asking the question: Do you want to argue or make money?Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/
Episode 377: Fear & Greed move the stock market on a daily basis. The cycle can be illustrated on a stock chart by observing retracement along levels of support and resistance. Currently the S&P 500 is hitting its first resistance level since the bottom on June 16. “Get Back Sellers” are exiting the Market. SignContinue reading "Retracement & Resistance Levels 220629"
Episode 376: The Markets might have finally hit selloff capitulation. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 375: There are three investor attitudes that separate the Winners from the Losers. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 374: Investor sentiment is extremely negative. I believe the panic is unwarranted. Fears from the Ukraine situation are being conflated with issues from the Pandemic that have already been resolved or mitigated. Much of our problems are due to “policies”, and as we’ve recently seen with NATO, long established policies can be quickly reversed.Continue reading "Conflation of fears drives extreme negative investor sentiment 220605"
Episode 373: The Stock Market has been selling off for 6 weeks…here’s what I’m doing. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 372: There’s a global economic crisis but it might be a windfall for the USA. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 371: Consumers haven’t run out of money yet. Sign up for my free ALERTs & Market Commentary at: https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ——————————————————
Episode 370: NETFLIX’s crash shows that: 1) stay-at-home stocks still have further to drop & 2) first-mover advantage doesn’t justify extreme valuations. ——————————————————
Episode 369: Is there a pending recession? Yes, probably in the “products” side of the economy, but the “services” side of the economy has yet to fully bloom. Think in-person experiences, travel, leisure…regardless of interest rates, that sector is BOOMING! ——————————————————
Episode 368: Value is a better word than cheap, but it isn’t as good of an attention getter. Here are five large cap stocks that I own and I believe they are valuable because they have a favorable price to future growth ratio: GE, GS, IBM, MU & SCHW. ——————————————————
Episode 367: The markets remain volatile but there are still plenty of stocks that I like, including these four stocks that I’ve owned for over a year: FLS, ITGR, MHH & VPG. ——————————————————
Episode 366: The S&P 500 is sitting on very strong support at the convergence of its 100dma & 200dma but this week volatility spiked back up…should you be concerned? ——————————————————
Episode 365: Two thoughts on how to invest without reacting to every kneejerk headline or avoiding what you personally don’t like. ——————————————————
Episode 363: Recessions generally follow an inverted yield curve, but not every inverted yield curve proceeds a recession. ——————————————————
Episode 362: Contrary to the Wall Street myth, bonds and specifically bond funds are not “safe”. There are a number of risk factors, and today’s dominant risk is a rising interest rate environment. ——————————————————
Episode 361: Consumer demand destruction is likely to be muted because households have significant amounts of wealth in their home and stock portfolio. ——————————————————
Episode 360: Today on my birthday, join me in a sarcastic cynical reflection of the good old days of an America that’s gone forever. ——————————————————
Episode 359: The petrodollar scare tactic is circulating again. Hide your wife…hide your kids ! ——————————————————
Episode 358: Inflation isn’t synonymous with Higher Prices. If the FED isn’t fully responsible for higher prices, they also can’t be the sole source of the solution. ——————————————————
Episode 357: I wouldn’t recommend rushing out and chasing the headlines…I’m preparing to buy what everyone else doesn’t like. ——————————————————
Episode 356: Ignore the crisis du jour, and fortify your portfolio with quality, diversification, and especially US equities. ——————————————————
Episode 355: How should you handle an individual stock collapse? In this episode I’ll discuss how I’m dealing with a 80% loss in SelectQuote. ——————————————————
Episode 354: The Media narrative about Tech Stocks is flawed…there hasn’t been a major selloff nor is there currently a relief rally occurring. The QQQ has only been up about 8% over the past 12 months; while the Energy Sector has been up over 60%. The clear winning sector over the long and short termContinue reading "Tech Stock RALLY or dead cat bounce?"
Episode 353: Listener questions- Chinese Stocks, Tech Stocks, 2022 Outlook, Portfolio Management, Swing Trading and more. ——————————————————
Episode 352: Goldman Sachs stock price took a big dive today, as did the entire stock market. But GS, like other high quality companies are extremely profitable with very reasonable valuations. In my opinion the current volatility in the stock market is not a time to panic but a time to buy quality stocks. ——————————————————
Episode 351: The way that 2022 is beginning is likely the way it will end…volatile & profitable. In this episode I discuss why I believe that stock valuations can support further growth in the economy and the stock market. ——————————————————
Episode 350: One of the worst investing mistakes you can make is obsessing over your daily portfolio balance. Wealth building is a marathon, not a sprint. Focusing on day-to-day market variations will likely cause you to make poor decisions based on emotions, rather than logical long term fundamentals. TIME SENSITIVE ANNOUNCEMENT: Today at 5pm eastern,Continue reading "Beware daily balance watching"
Episode 348: Here’s the video were I describe how the Small Cap index has been trading in a defined range all year long: And here’s the link to the 62 stocks that I recently reinvested in: ——————————————————
Episode 347: A portion of this episode is an audio replay from a video recorded on 3/21/2020: ——————————————————
Episode 346: I’m not at all concerned about the stock market selloff that happened on Black Friday. In fact, the rally will likely continue even longer, because now the FED will be more hesitant to raise interest rates. In this episode I discuss the two primary drivers of COVID inflation…and neither have anything to doContinue reading "Black Friday SELLOFF…FED will never raise interest rates"
Episode 345: Both Peloton and SelectQuote are down by nearly 70%. Is this a good entry point to buy the dip or should you avoid trying to catch a falling knife? ——————————————————