My Football Writer: Recent Episodes
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So… crunch time is almost upon us.
Forty-six games. Lots of angst. Lots of shouting. Even more disagreeing. But now it’s history. What’s done is done. All that’s been and gone matters not a single iota.
Two games.
A chance for this group to become heroes. To write their own little piece of Norwich City history.
We could be on the cusp of something great or, equally, could be about to flunk. In which case, it could be the last we see of some of our brightest lights. Tis the starkest of forks in the road.
But which fork will Wagner and his men take?
The answer is none of us know, but still it felt like the perfect time to gauge the view of some of the MFW team. Here’s what they think will transpire over the next two-and-a-half weeks:
Andy Head:
I’d be more optimistic if the away leg was first. As it is, even if we were to somehow contain Crysencio Summerville and Dan James from skipping through those channels between the full-backs and centre-backs that we struggle to defend, and come away with a slender lead at Carrow Road, I fear for us at Elland Road.
Wagner has one plan against good teams away from home and it’s consistent with the tactical approach of Field Marshall Haig in WW1. Entrench yourself and, on the odd occasion, move incredibly slowly towards the enemy hoping they don’t notice you or pick you off like cannon fodder. I’ve yet to see it be anything other than soul-destroying and calamitous, so I don’t see us emerging from The Big Push unfortunately.
Will Grant:
I wish I could go into this game with high levels of optimism but this game worries me. We’re not in the greatest form and Leeds pose an abundance of threat in wide areas. If we look at the home game against them, they can play slightly more tentatively due to the options of Summerville and James in transition. If we are to be successful in the home leg, Marcelino Nunez has to be deployed deeper. His presence in deep areas makes us a much better side, with his technical quality setting the standards in possession. As well as Nunez, Josh Sargent has to be at his best level. His impact since January has been the main factor for our resurgence but in recent weeks, he’s been slightly loose in the final third, which has led to more turnovers. Sargent needs a positive two weeks if we’re going to get promoted.
As for Sunday, I expect it to be an exciting game – similar to the one earlier in the season. However, with quality being key in these tight games, Leeds have slightly more – especially in attacking areas. Although it would be ideal for City to take a lead into the second leg, the most important thing is for them to stay in this two-legged tie. With Elland Road being an unpredictable ground, coupled with Leeds losing their last two at home, I wouldn’t put it past City Norwich to get a result there. However, I feel the damage will be done in the home leg. Despite the barminess of the playoffs, quality is usually the big winner.
Home Leg: 1-3 Leeds
Away Leg: 2-2 Draw
Aggregate: 3-5 Leeds
Stewart Lewis:
“I don’t predict the future”, said a famous man, “and I never will”.
The only thing dafter than predicting the result of a football match is predicting one involving Norwich. And the only thing dafter than that is predicting a playoff game involving Norwich.
So here goes. First leg: Norwich 2, Leeds 1. Second leg: Leeds 2, Norwich 2. It’s been said that I’m an optimist…
Kathy Blake:
At the risk of annoying fellow MFW writers, I am not filled with either enthusiasm or confidence about these play-offs. I have a feeling of foreboding and suspect Wagner will go ultra-defensive in the first leg like he did against Southampton earlier in the season. I believe he’ll obsess about Leeds not scoring, which I can only see ending one way.
Daniel Farke mostly got the ‘big games’ right when he was here and I can see this continuing on Sunday. I know he is under a lot of pressure following their recent run and the current feeling among a lot of Leeds fans is that he should go. This is something he’s not used to but I think he will still set his team out to play fast attacking football and I can see us conceding. If we go up there with a draw or one goal either way, I can see the Elland Road crowd pulling them over the line.
Please let me be wrong.
Norwich 0 Leeds 0
Leeds 2 Norwich 0
Mick Dennis:
We know Daniel Farke won’t compromise his style. We know David Wagner is more flexible and pragmatic. We know we have to make the Carra rock. We know Leeds fans give up on their boys and stomp out of the ground in numbers if things look bad … I know that if I was any good at predicting scores I wouldn’t have needed to work so blooming hard for so many years.
First leg:
Norwich 3 Leeds 2
Second leg:
Leeds 1 Norwich 0
(Norwich win on penalties as Angus excels).
Steve Cook:
Ahead of the season, I had no hope of reaching the playoffs, so credit to the club for the achievement. However, the Jekyll and Hyde nature of this group does little to inspire genuine belief ahead of two (hopefully three) massive fixtures. Watching Wagner’s cautious and passive approach against the league’s ‘big boys’ has felt like adopting the brace position on a failing aircraft and waiting for the inevitable. With the individual talent in our squad, we’ll always have a puncher’s chance against superior opposition but only if we’re prepared to actually throw some punches.
Prediction: Southampton beat Leeds at Wembley.
Gary Gowers:
To have made the playoffs, given what transpired in the first half of the season, is quite the achievement. But it’s because we know all too well the huge gulf between the best level and worst level of this team that I fear for us over two legs against Leeds. Consistency across both games will be key, and such is the disparity between our home and away form, I’m not sure they have back-to-back good performances in them.
Perversely, a first-leg defeat would at least mean Wagner had to unleash in the second leg, but a narrow win at Carrow Road would likely mean an attempt to shut up shop at Elland Road. Either way, I can see Leeds’ extra quality tilting it in their favour over 180 minutes. I, of course, hope to be proved wrong.
Norwich 2 Leeds 1
Leeds 2 Norwich 0
James Colman:
For Sunday, I think Wagner will revert to Sara in the number 10 role, Fassnacht wide right and Nunez/Mclean as the double pivot. Much like the Elland Road game, City will be bright, attacking yet for all their endeavours they won’t score against one of the meanest defences in the league. (Why couldn’t Farke manage that when he was at City?).
The away leg will be similarly frustrating but with City content to soak up pressure, trying but failing to hit Leeds on the break. Despite defensive resolve, City will lapse and Leeds will nick it 1-0, then go on to beat Southampton in the Play-Off final.
Pessimistic head on – without Barnes, it seems Sargent is only 25% of the player he is when paired with the wily veteran. Without the pair, we haven’t shone in the last two games. Optimistic head on – I have been hopelessly wrong in my pre-season predictions – let’s hope the same is true here!
Gary Field:
If you’re seeking to predict the outcome of Sunday’s game, based purely on this season’s stats, my advice would be, don’t! The contrast between Leeds and City is stark – Leeds, 90 points to City’s 73, goals scored, Leeds 81 to City’s 79, goals conceded, just 43 compared to City’s 64. Even the head-to-head records are in favour of the opposition – Leeds winning both games, 3-2 at Carrow Road, last October, and 1-0 at Elland Road in January.
If you’re looking for positives, perhaps more surprising is that City accumulated 49 home points this season, more than the 48 in our 2020-21 Championship title-winning season, and matching the 49 points earned in 2018-19.
While all those stats count for nothing during the forthcoming playoffs, City’s current home form is, arguably, unparalleled in recent seasons. So, here’s hoping we approach the game with a positive mindset. Who knows. If we do, we might match our two previous playoff home results – both 3-1 wins. That would be quite something to take to Elland Road four days later.
Ed Couzens-Lake:
I remember posting something on Twitter at the start of the year that stated ‘…can we stop talking about the play offs now?’ Arse duly bitten. With a team that misfires like the engine on an old Triumph Stag, occasionally growling and magnificent but, more often than not, wheezing, choking and turning over to no effect, we’ve made sixth. The question is, will the old girl fire herself up one more time for Leeds? Because Wembley is an absolute lottery. The FA Cup Final could be Manchester United vs Swaffham… and you wouldn’t bet entirely against a major upset and the old trophy heading to Old Trafford.
So, Leeds. They can be breathtaking, high octane and terrifying, fast to break and tumbling forward like an alabaster avalanche, sweeping all and sundry away. Or they can be brittle and wrought with nerves, mistakes in every single one of them and a crowd that doesn’t know the meaning of the word prisoner. Their fans will be wondering which Leeds United will turn up. We’re all wondering what Norwich City will turn up. It could be one of the most topsy-turvy and unpredictable playoff semi-finals yet.
It’ll be cagey at Carra’. Someone will get a late goal, someone will get a red card. Elland Road? Littered with goals.
Norwich City 1 Leeds United 1
Leeds United 2 Norwich City 2
Penalties……and don’t even ask….
Please let us have your predictions in the comments below…
OTBC
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