The Basewinner Podcast: Recent Episodes
Basewinner; Professional MLB Baseball Betting Podcast
Our approach is to simplify complex sabermetrics into actionable MLB baseball betting information. MLB betting picks, trends, and tips. MLB baseball handicapping software, systems, and advanced sabermetrics.
Scott talks with the Basewinner about how great the 2023 model is doing (up more than 12 units!) and about the current state of starting pitching in the leagues.
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Scott talks with Basewinner about his modeling for the 2023 season.
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Scott talks with the Basewinner about the importance of the 3-man starting rotation and its implications for the postseason.
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The Log Cutter is back baby! After too long of a hiatus, the Basewinner has worked long hours, some even under candlelight to bring back this classic handicapping tool back to power the Crunch model.
The new version more detailed and sustainable. BW gives you a sneak peek on this podcast.
Basewinner shows you how he used the log cutter to adjust the numbers for Kutter Crawford, who is Boston's starter for the focus game which is the Yankees vs. Red Sox.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
The Log Cutter is back baby! After too long of a hiatus, the Basewinner has worked long hours, some even under candlelight to bring back this classic handicapping tool back to power the Crunch model.
The new version more detailed and sustainable. BW gives you a sneak peek on this podcast.
Basewinner shows you how he used the log cutter to adjust the numbers for Kutter Crawford, who is Boston's starter for the focus game which is the Yankees vs. Red Sox.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
Scott talks with the Basewinner about the current status of Basewinner Crunch, then they look at the divisional futures and discuss the importance of bullpens.
Charts for the Show
Basewinner looks at an NL matchup on the Friday card between the Arizona D'Backs and Atlanta Braves.
BW looks at the detailed BW game logs for Mad Bum and Kyle Wright. He also digs into some interesting numbers reagrding both teams bullpens and offensive splits.
Some of these numbers are enlightening and may carry some handicapping weight for the next couple of weeks.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
Basewinner looks at an AL West matchup on the Wednesday card between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros.
BW looks at the detailed BW game logs for Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. He also digs into the Crunch model numbers for each man in each lineup.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
Basewinner looks at an AL matchup on the Wednesday card between Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox.
BW looks at the detailed BW game logs for Cal Quantril and Nate Eovaldi.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
Basewinner looks at an NL West matchup on the Saturday card between Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres.
BW digs into both starters numbers and ratings. He also talks about both team's bullpens and goes over the invidual and team numbers for each team's relief corps.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
Basewinner looks at good pitching matchup on the Friday card between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants.
BW digs into Brandon Woodruff's s game logs, xxxERA and bwERA. He also talks in good detail about the Brewers bullpen individual ratings and the difference between the top part and underbelly of this team's relief corps.
Also, the pros and cons of betting games early as opposed to waiting are talked about
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
Basewinner dives into a game on the Thursday card between the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals.
BW goes over both starters game logs, xxxERA's and bwERA's. He also talks in good detail about both teams bullpen individual ratings and how they are set up in the Crunch model for this game.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
On this quick hitter, Basewinner dives into a game on the Wednesday card between the Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals.
BW gives you a quick look at how he injects a teams bullpen into the model. He also talks in good detail about the Seattle bullpen as a whole and the strength and weakness of the individuals that make up the Mariner relief corps.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
On this quick hitter, Basewinner dives into a game on the Saturday card between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.
He talks in good detail about some important numbers for Patrick Corbin and the Nationals offense. He points out a couple of things to consider in this game and when betting on the Nationals in general.
The BW Crunch pod helps you break down the daily MLB betting card and gives you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
On a quick hitter, Basewinner deals out 1 game for tomorrow's very tight lined card. BW does go into good depth on Wheeler and Wainwrights YTD game logs and xxxERA and xERA.
As a bonus, BW looks at the status of his pre-season group of 5 players he bet to win in the MLB HR Home Run future market. Two guys are in the hunt and BW goes into his thoughts on Schwarber. Could there be more Schwarbombs on the horizon?
The BW Crunch pod will help you break down the daily MLB betting card and give you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
On this quick hitter, Basewinner deals out 3 games for tomorrow's card. He also talks about the Braves Spencer Strider's BW numbers. BW laments about the current AL Cy Young odds and explains why he is befuddled.
The BW Crunch pod will help you break down the daily MLB betting card and give you key numbers to help you with all of your baseball bets.
Basewinner talks about the key numbers on the daily chart and how to read each column to help you with your daily handicap. The NL Cy Young market is touched upon and BW discusses why he thinks there are better options than the current favorite.
If you haven't signed up for the chart and daily plays, please visit basewinner.com. All numbers from chart and plays will be complimentary for at least the next two weeks.
Basewinner talks about starting pitcher luck. He goes over the luckiest starting pitchers based on unrealistic LOB%, HR/FB and BABIP and how this could be beneficial in your daily handicap.
Scott talks with the Basewinner about how to quantify defensive "luck" and what makes a pitcher "lucky".
Episode Charts
Scott talks with the Basewinner about the starter "Stuff+" metric from The Athletic and how it can be used for betting.
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The Athletic Article on Stuff+
Scott talks with the Basewinner about bullpens and the "Bullpen Stuff" metrics.
Charts from this Episode
Scott talks with the Basewinner about how standardizing the humidification and temperature of stored balls affect their travel. Basewinner also looks at hard Hard Hit vs. OPS numbers to see which teams might regress.
Here's the link to The Athletic article on MLB's plan to standardize humidors at all parks.
This week's chart
On this week's episode, Mark and Scott discuss the futures for home run leaders and the current OPS vs OPS with RISP.
Episode Charts
On this week's episode, Mark and Scott discuss how to use OPS with RISP to identify teams that are candidates for regression and the current futures markets for NL Cy Young awards.
Episode Charts
On this week's episode, Mark and Scott discuss the Basewinner Pre-Season Component Ranks and the projected Division Win Percentages versus what the sportsbooks are offering. Download Episode Content
Scott talks with Basewinner about Atlanta and Houston's bullpens for the upcoming World Series games.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about the LDS recap with cumulative series BaseRuns and Basewinner ERAs, playoff projections, and the Bullpen command ratings.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about the upcoming playoff race and identifying where his numbers show an edge over the book prices. They also discuss what Mark expects to see in the next two weeks. Will it be the Rays and the Dodgers again this year? Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about dismal swing betting results with the Tigers and the Astros, a new five-inning model Mark is developing, and the 3M bullpen numbers.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about swing betting results with the Tigers and the Blue Jays, the expected standings going into the playoffs, and the 3M bullpen numbers.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about swing betting results with the Cardinals, how the league futures are shaping up as we get closer to the playoffs, and the 3M bullpen numbers.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about swing betting the Tigers and Cardinals, the effect the recent trades will have on the standings, and the 3M bullpen numbers.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about Mariners swing betting, the effect the upcoming trades might have on the standings, and the 3M bullpen numbers.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about Astros swing betting, the next team to play on/fade based on expected standings plus 3M starter numbers, Home Run Derby strategy for Monday, and the 3M bullpen numbers.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about using applying financial trading concepts to sports betting and how MLB's crackdown on "sticky stuff" is going to affect pitching stats.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about the effect on OPS when a batter can get to 2-1 in the count. Then they discusses the new baseball weather site they built.
Episode Web Page
Scott talks with Basewinner about the league standings, WRC+ RISP vs full, the top and bottom 20 starters based on the 3M model, and the bullpen ratings from the 3M model. Also find out why Mark thinks the Cardinals are the luckiest team in baseball. Show Notes and Charts
Scott talks with Basewinner about the league standings, WRC+ RISP vs full, the top and bottom 20 starters based on the 3M model, and the bullpen ratings from the 3M model.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about his the three-metric bullpen pitcher rating tool (3MBP), the league-wide standard vs. component-based standings, league-wide WRC+ RISP vs full, and the top 20 starting pitchers. Download Charts Episode Website
Scott talks with Basewinner about his new three-metric pitcher ranking tool, moneylines and their implied implied odds, and WRC+ vs RISP WRC+. Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about the upcoming season, the NL West projections, team salaries, and what deadened ball controversies we can look forward to this year.
Show Notes
Scott talks with Basewinner about the LCS results and gets his thoughts on the upcoming World Series. Download episode charts
Scott talks with Basewinner about the LDS results and thoughts about the upcoming league championship series. They also discuss why some people choose to play with legal sportsbooks despite having worse lines. Download Episode Charts
Scott talks with Basewinner about the wildcard series results and thoughts about the upcoming league division series. They also discuss the pitcher rating tool and MLB weather tool on basewinnner.com. Download episode content
Scott talks with Basewinner about the playoffs and we give final numbers and thoughts regarding the 2020 NL West Season. The guys talk about how to how to calculate house margin for playoff futures and why betting futures most likely is not the best available bet. Also, Basewinner goes over all playoff wild-card series calculations and tells you what he would bet if he was playing these and what he would do if investing in the Playoff futures market. Also, Basewinner talks about the weighted coin idea when calculating Playoff series prices. Download Episode Charts
Scott talks with Basewinner about the upcoming playoffs and Chris Paddack from the Padres. Is he having as bad a season as everyone says? Plus, the podcast regular segments of in-depth NL West Sabermetric and Weekly standings and review of RISP vs. Full comparisons on both Offense and Defense to identify potential regression.
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Scott talks with Basewinner about 2020 MLB home and away splits. Basewinner takes a look at the leaders in home/away splits involving two stats he feels are very important. How can you use these stats and splits as a baseball handicapper? Also, we takes a look at the Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen. What will be Basewinner's general betting approach when looking at his games? Plus, the podcast regular segment of in-depth NL West standings, sabermetric, and weekly standings. Download show charts
Scott talks with Basewinner about the Los Angeles Angels and answers two member questions: Why does Basewinner still have the Angels offense rated so high, and why is he backing off them now despite the daily model projections usually still showing value on them? Also, BW revisits Madison Bumgarner as he makes his return back to the D'Backs rotation. What is Basewinner's take away from MadBum's awful start to his D'Back career. Plus, podcast regular segments of in-depth NL West Standings, Sabermetric, and Weekly standing and review of RISP vs. Full comparisons on both Offense and Defense to identify potential regression.
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Basewinner and Scott review the 2020 teams that hit the best vs. specific pitch types. This could be helpful with pitch mix game analysis. In-depth NL West Standings, Sabermetric, and Weekly standings. Basewinner reviews RISP vs. Full comparisons on both Offense and Defense to identify potential regression. NL West starting pitcher spotlight is on Kenley Jansen. Basewinner still likes him goes over the reasons why plus a quick but important lesson in MLB analyzing him has brought out again. Download extra content here
Basewinner and Scott review the teams that have outperformed or fallen behind their pre-season expectations. This could be helpful to identify potential regression candidates. In-depth NL West Standings, Sabermetric and Weekly standings. Basewinner reviews RISP vs. Full comparisons on both Offense and Defense to identify potential regression. NL West starting pitcher spotlight is on Merril Kelly. Basewinner is upbeat on him and goes over the reasons why.
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Mark and Scott discuss the NL West vs. sabermetrics, RISP vs. full disparity, the Runs/100 metric compared to wRC+, and the research Mark has been doing on fielding. We finish up by discussing Kevin Gausman from the Giants.
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Stat of the Week: The importance of defense
Mark and Scott discuss the NL West Standings, the Runs/100 metric compared to wRC+, and Madison Bumgarner's surprising lack of velocity and control.
Episode 2 Content
Madison Bumgarner is throwing 88 mph. How concerning is that?
Mark and Scott discuss the 2020 season, COVID outbreaks among the players, and how a shortened season will affect stats.
Mark takes us through one of his favorite stats, Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) and Weighted Runs Created Plus. (wRC+)
We finish out the episode by discussing German Marquez and his surprising home/road splits.
If you want to follow along, you can download the episode's extra content.
Intro music courtesy of MrRunnerholic.
Basewinner gives you some key NL West numbers so you can impress your dates and win money from the Vegas books. Detailed ratings are here for your pleasure.
3:00 -- NL West standings projections, wins and division probabilities
4:45 -- NL West Starting Pitching
11:40 -- NL West Bullpen
14:25 -- NL West Batting
17:20 -- Cool Statcast aggregates for NL West
Clear Data Sports is excited to welcome back The Syrian Pony and Riley after a long sports hiatus. They will be discussing the retooled NFL model and giving out ALL of our season win totals FOR FREE!
If you want to be a member of the community, you can do so FREE through July. Contact customerservice@cleardatasports.com and Pony will take care of you.
The podcast discusses each division in the following order in case you want to jump around:
AFC East, North, South, West...NFC East, North, South, West
On the eve of the annual Season Win Total release, Basewinner describes the detailed process that generates the projected standings.
Get a sneak peek at the Basewinner season projection model that has generated a 22-6 SWT Record since it's inception in 2016.
Basewinner gives you a look at the 4 main components of the model. Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Team Offense and Fielding.
This edition of BW Crunch features our soccer expert, Riley Wichmann. A tasty play is given out in the Bournemouth v. Chelsea match.
The guys also talk about the ups and downs of handicapping and about what has gone right and wrong this year on the EPL modeling side.
This edition of BW Crunch goes very deep as the Clear Data Sports Champions League handicapping process is broken down by our soccer expert, Riley Wichmann.
Basewinner hosts. He is in a generous mood and coaxes two official future UCL plays out of Riley that will pay out nicely if they hit. Riley highlights the depths of an amazing modeling process that has led to a nice 18 unit profit since the models inception.
Also as a bonus, Riley deals out a breakdown on the Aston Villa v. Tottenham game with a strong official play.
Basewinner also talks about a couple exciting things that will be coming out of the Clear Data camp in the next month.
Basewinner goes over essential NL Playoff Numbers in hopes to find playoff value.
Key topics covered:
1- Who is the 2019 MLB "Natural" in Basewinner's opinion.
2- Season win total review.
2- Basewinner playoff handicapping process at a high level.
3- Interesting notes regarding the NL playoff teams.
4- A small NL series play.
Basewinner gives you a breakdown of the CDSI 2019 Season win totals and his view on MLB.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on SWT's -- the good, the bad, the remaining projections.
2- The most important thing you should look for when choosing a credible Sports Betting Information source.
3- The CDS 2019 baseball record broken down and BW's take.
4- Will the "elite under" make a comeback in 2020
5- Basewinner is baffled by lack of media response to juiced ball. He gets intense on this one.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the CHC v. CIN game on the Saturday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on CHC v. CIN including log cutters for Kyle Hendricks and Sony Gray.
2- Team bullpen ratings.
3- BBK to WRC+ Regression Chart Analysis for Reds and Cubs
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner talks about a play with good value on the Friday card and goes rapid fire with bbk for 5 games on the card.
Key topics covered:
1- Key component numbers and model projections for Indians and Twins.
2- Basewinner's take and log cutter for Shane Bieber
3- Will Twins regress?
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only
Basewinner gives you a good look at the CIN v. ATL game on the Saturday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on CIN v. ATL including log cutters for Trevor Bauer and Dallas Keuchel.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Team bullpen ratings.
4- Reds subtraction of Puig - how it affects our ratings and probability projections.
5- Look at futures for both teams.
6- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the BOS v. NYY game on the Friday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on BOS v. NYY including log cutters for E Rod and James Paxton.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Team bullpen ratings
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the NYM v. CWS game on the Wednesday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on NYM v. CWS including log cutters for Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Team bullpen ratings
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner is jacked up on the cold brew coffee and he gives you some great numbers for the HOU v. STL game on the Saturday card. He also goes rapid fire BBK and doles out 6 bbk model plays.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on HOU v. STL including log cutters for Gerrit Cole and Daniel Ponce De Leon.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Team bullpen ratings
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
This is a special Sports Handicapping Journey podcast.
CDS has brought Ray Adair into the handicapping team. Ray has over of 20 years of handicapping experience and specializes in MLB. He brings a special mix of extensive experience in Software Engineering and Handicapping
Mark talks with Ray about his extensive programming and database background, sports handicapping in general and the MLB Wizzard model which is built on a unique pitch location/type premise. The model is deep and contains over 3.7 million pitch records.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the BOS v. TBR game on the Wednesday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on BOS v. TBR including log cutters for David Price and Charlie Morton.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Basewinner's take on Rays future plays.
4- A super interesting trend regarding the Rays and one that BW thinks could have legs.
5- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
6- BBK models results YTD
Basewinner gives you a good look at the OAK v. HOU game on the Monday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on OAK v. HOU including log cutters for Homer Bailey and Gerrit Cole.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Basewinner's take on A's and Astros future plays.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the WAS v. ATL game on the Saturday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on WAS v. ATL including log cutters for Anibal Sanchez and Mike Soroka.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Basewinner's take on Braves and Nationals future plays.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the TOR v. DET game on the Friday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on TOR v. DET including log cutters for Marcus Stroman and Jordan Zimmermann.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Basewinner's take on the Tigers and Tigers pen.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
On a quick hitter, Basewinner gives you a good look at the SDP v. MIA game on the Wednesday card and gets you really ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on SDP v. MIA including log cutters for Chris Paddack and Trevor Richards.
2- Man by man bullpen comparisons.
3- Basewinner's take on the Padres and Pad's pen
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Aw-Yeah! Basewinner is jacked up on Starbucks cold brew gives you a good look at the DET v. KCR game on the Friday card and gets you really ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on DET v. KCR including log cutter for Matthew Boyd and Brad Keller.
2- Both teams bullpens looked at man by man.
3- Bullpen day -- Top 5 bottom 5
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the WAS v. PHI game on the Friday card and gets you really ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on WAS v. PHI including log cutter for Stephen Strasburg and Nick Pivetta.
2- NL East BB/K +- comparisons
3- Basewinner's take on the Nationals and our Nats and Braves future plays.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the MIL v. CIN game on the Wednesday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on MIL v. CIN including log cutter for Jhoulys Chacin and Sonny Gray.
2- A look at both teams bullpens.
3- Basewinner's take on the Reds and our Reds future plays.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the STL v. SDP game on the Saturday card and gets you ready with bbk projections for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- BW's take on STL v. SDP including log cutter for Chris Paddack and Dakota Hudson.
2- A look at both teams bullpens.
3- The CDS top 5 and bottom 5 bully's .
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner gives you a good look at the ATL v. NYM game on the Friday card and gets you ready with bbk for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- Why in betting you can help yourself by zigging when others are zagging.
2- BW's take on ATL v. NYM including log cutter for Jacob deGrom.
3- Bullpen diaries including the Mets.
4- BW's gives you a re-assuring betting numbers regarding the run explosion crisis.
5- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner talks about a play with good value on the Wednesday card and goes rapid fire with bbk for 5 games on the card.
Key topics covered:
1- BW Record review.
2- Thoughts on Sunday's win probabilities/improbabilities.
3- Dyland Bundy/Matt Strahm log cutter.
4- San Diego's pen.
5- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner talks about a play with good value on the Saturday card and goes rapid fire with bbk for 5 games on the card.
Key topics covered:
1- Essential component numbers and model projections for Mets and Cubs.
2- Basewinner's takes and log cutters for Zack Wheeler and Jose Q.
3- Interesting Cubs futility numbers.
4- Quick look at NL Central developments.
5- Rapid fire bbk model probability.
Basewinner talks about a play with good value on the Friday card and goes rapid fire with bbk for 5 games on the card.
Key topics covered:
1- Sometimes a perceived crappy game is a good bet.
2- Surprising log cutter numbers for Mike Leake.
3- "Inside the Game page" looks at both lineups.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
5- bbk model podcast results
Basewinner talks about a play with good value on the Wednesday card and goes rapid fire with bbk for 5 games.
Key topics covered:
1- Andrew Heaney log cutter
2- Los Angeles Angels plate discipline numbers.
3- Aaron Sanchez log cutter and BW's take on him.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Bonus handicapping theory from Basewinner.
On a quick hitter, Basewinner reviews the record, uncovers a nice play in the NYM v. ATL game and goes rapid fire in bbk for 5 games on the card
Key topics covered:
1- Weekend, weekly and YTD record
2- Jacob deGrom log cutter.
3- Julio Teheran log cutter.
4- Key ideas in the NYM/ATL game including interesting splits for both starters.
5- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
6- Handicapping Dream new intro/exit music.
Basewinner talks about a play with good value on the Saturday card and goes rapid fire bbk model for 5 games on the card.
Key topics covered:
1- Charlie Morton log cutter
2- Interesting Los Angeles Angels batting numbers.
3- Basewinner's numbers on Jose Suarez.
4- Interesting trend involving Tampa Bay BW's take on the Trop.
5- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
On a quick hitter, BW talks about a play with good value in the SEA v. MIN game and goes rapid fire with bbk for 5 games on the card.
Key topics covered:
1- Jose Berrios log cutter
2- Interesting Minnesota Twins batting numbers.
3- BW's thoughts on the Twins in general.
4- Key numbers in SEA/MIN including both starters and team bully's.
5- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
On a quick hitter, Basewinner reviews the record, uncovers a nice play in the SD v. SF game and goes rapid fire in bbk for 5 games on the card
Key topics covered:
1- Weekend, weekly and YTD record
2- Under plays are gaining momentum.
3- BW's high level take on the juiced ball.
4- Key ideas in the SD/SF game including starter log cutters and team bully's.
5- Rapid fire probabilities for all games based on bbk model only.
BaseWinner takes a look at Saturday's WAS v. Diego game. He talks a lot of Max Scherzer and a little WAS bullpen.
Key topics covered:
1- Value in tomorrow's Nats v. Padres game.
2- An amazing stat regarding 2019 Max Scherzer.
3- Run support for Scherzer and Top 5/Bottom 5 in run support in MLB.
4- Is the Washington bullpen as bad as they appear .
5- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner goes over team bullpen ratings, uncovers a nice play in the ARI v. TOR game and talks a little Texas Rangers on the 6-7 pod.
Key topics covered:
1- Bullpen ratings - the good, the bad, the surprises.
2- Some interesting results specific to Arizona D'Backs games.
3- Basewinner's take on an interesting Texas Rangers club.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for 5 games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner takes a look tomorrows CIN v. STL game. He also takes a look at the Reds future play and dives deep into NL Central starting pitching.
Key topics covered:
1- Value in tomorrow's Reds v. Cardinals game.
2- What do the numbers say about the Reds over 79 SWT.
3- NL Central rankings for all 25 1-5 rotation men.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for all games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner goes over the YTD record, uncovers a nice play in the SF v. NYM game and brings you some other nuggets on the 6-4 pod.
Key topics covered:
1- The CDS record - how you can review and why we present it the way we do.
2- Some interesting results for the season to date.
3- Key ideas in the SF/NYM game including starter log cutters and team bully's.
4- Rapid fire probabilities for all games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner brings you a good look at tomorrow's CHC v STL rivalry game.
Key topics covered:
1- The main differences between Jack Flaherty and Jose Q.
2- Will the Cubs foil the BW's Cubs under season win total despite their bullpen nightmare?
3- Rapid fire probabilities for all games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner brings you a quick hitter for Friday's sexy battle between the Giants and Orioles.
Key topics covered:
1- Is Cashner serviceable now?
2- Who has the best bullpen in MLB by the BW ratings.
3- Rapid fire probabilities for all games based on bbk model only.
Basewinner is jacked up on Starbucks cold brew and he brings you some interesting numbers on this podcast including:
- A Double Play in the BOS/NYY game.
- An unbelievable split stat regarding Chris Sale.
- How you can access the Basewinner bb/k study.
- Rapid fire on all of the 5-30 game probabilities according to the bb/k model.
Basewinner gives you a nice look at Wednesday's LAA v. OAK game and touches upon the k/bb model he built over the Memorial Day weekend.
Key ideas:
1- Is Griffin Canning, Griffin "Can Do"?
2- Is it possible to build a model using just bb/k.
3- What are the chances A's will cash our season win total of under 83.5?
Basewinner also wants to make sure there is no "misunderstanding" regarding the Genesis Cabrera start.
Basewinner has surfaced from the lab to get you ready for this early Saturday clash between our beloved Reds and the 2019 villains that are the Cubs.
The main two defensive components that affect the projected probability for this game are highlighted.
BW uses the log cutter to look at the important numbers for Yu Darvish and he gives goes over some eye opening figures for Tyler Mahle.
Both teams bullpens are examined and there are some surprises.
As usual BW Crunch serves up tomorrows plays overnight. In this case, so you bet the nickel lines with confidence before you grill it up.
In this episode, Basewinner reveals his 2018 NLCS and ALCS projections and picks.
He goes into nice detail about how to handicap a playoff series.
Other items discussed on this episode are:
How to price a playoff series.
2018 remaining playoff teams bullpens advanced ratings by splits.
How has LAD,MIL, HOU and BOS produced offensively in 2018 vs. the top 20% of starting pitchers shown by xOPS (statcast data).
Man for man lineup comparison in LAD v. MIL series.
Basewinner's take on a potential blowup of the now is hip "bullpen day."
This episode goes deep into the Basewinner starting pitching numbers for the starting pitchers involved in the 2018 MLB Playoffs.
Basewinner identifies who the best and worst pitchers are in the following splits:
Basewinner ERA, expected OPS ERA (statcast) , K%, swinging strike% and expected hits (statcast).
and categories:
Average of L4 quarters, vs. Playoff Teams, Home, Away
This podcast is better than the candy store for the Starting Pitcher advanced stat lovers and can help you with your MLB Betting and Fantasy calls.
This episode is pure stat candy as Basewinner looks at the playoff odds board to show you where the value is.
Basewinner has simulated every possible series in the 2018 and shares his work and results.
He identifies what he thinks is the best playoff bet in 3 years. Also, a detailed explanation of the starting pitching rating process.
He goes over the new log cutter blend which includes statcast data via the new Basewinner xOPS ERA.
Bullpens in depth, offenses at a glance, odds and projections and quality numbers for the starters that will pitch in the post-season. Get your fill on this one.
Basewinner brings you a quick hitter on the state of the NL West and the STL Team Total bet.
Key ideas discussed.
1- Are the Dodgers to win the division still a good bet at the current odds?
2- What happened to the D-Backs?
3- What are the chances Cardinals will cash the season win total of 86.5?
Basewinner is jacked up on Starbucks cold brew and he brings to you some interesting MLB numbers on this Podcast including.
1- Market favorite performance since 2001.
2- Division Race updates, odds and probability projections.
3- Good look at some Dodgers advanced stats and Rockies v. Dodgers upcoming series.
A couple of attempts at humor also included in this one.
On this episode of Basewinner Crunch, Basewinner breaks down the AL West race and takes a detailed look at the OAK and HOU team components.
Basewinner reviews the AL West Division winner probability and pricing and his analysis shows that there still is value in this market.
Also, two truths about baseball results are discussed. Basewinner goes over these numbers in detail so you can understanding their true magnitude.
The Oakland and Texas bullpens are and compared man vs. man. Trevor Cahill and Dallas Keuchel numbers are reviewed as well as the rest of each team's starting rotation.
This is the second of the a two part podcast that looks at the Basewinner's MLB rest of season projections and team ratings.
Basewinner has put the Rest Of Season projections and YTD performances into the division simulators and has spotted criminal pricing in the NL West and a potential value play in another division.
Also in this podcast, BW laments on the 2018 luck sequencing in the NL West and how this luck has affected the Dodgers and Rockies.
Basewinner hints about a couple of potential plays that may go down tomorrow.
The quality of the Arizona D'Backs and the quality of the remaining schedule is also touched upon.
This is the first of the a two part podcast that looks at the BW MLB rest of season projections and team ratings.
Basewinner reviews the start of season and mid-season future plays and gives his take on where he thinks they will end up based on each teams rest of season schedule, team ratings and YTD performance.
Also in this podcast, BW looks at the Top 5 and Bottom 5 teams as rated by BW Crunch in the following key categories -- Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching and Offense.
The quality of team's remaining schedule is also touched upon.
MLB Baseball Betting Tips (Aug 7 game) Philadelphia Phillies v Arizona Dbacks
BaseWinner also reviews the xWOBA scores to reveal a few teams that are currently over (and UNDER) performing their on field performance, along with the teams that are better (or worse) in the 1st 5 innings vs final 4 innings.
More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/mlb-handicapping-free-baseball-betting-picks-july/
MLB Baseball Betting System (Aug 1 game) Astros v Mariners
More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/mlb-handicapping-free-baseball-betting-picks-july/
If you ever wondered how the Basewinner rates the bullpen and uses the ratings inside of Crunch, this podcast is for you.
Basewinner reviews the important game components of the Dodgers v. Brewers game for 7/31/2018.
In breaking the game down, BW shows you both teams detailed bullpen numbers and how these bullpen numbers are derived. Also, BW shows you how these ratings are used in Crunch to help calculate the projected odds for each game.
As usual, BW uses the log cutter to look at the important numbers for Walker Buehler and he gives you "The Lowdown" on Wade Miley.
A sneak peek at each team's lineup is also offered on this one.
We serve up tomorrows plays overnight so you can look and bet the nickel lines and listen on your drive to work
www.ClearDataSports.com
MLB Handicapping Formula: Diamondbacks v Cubs (July 25, 2018)
Jon Lester the Jester laying a criminal price against strikeout master Robby Ray (69 BaseWinner number) and the DBacks. Ray's swinging strikes to batters faced numbers are off the charts. Did the bookmakers set an irresponsible line in this game? They must be planning on recreational Cubs money.
More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/mlb-handicapping-free-baseball-betting-picks-july/
Free MLB Betting Analysis: LA Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies (July 24, 2018)
Kenta Maeda is posting shockingly solid numbers. Let's take a deeper dive and review this matchup vs Aaron Nola.
BaseWinner also reviews the entire Dodgers pitching staff with an eye on the postseason.
More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/mlb-handicapping-free-baseball-betting-picks-july/
Free MLB Betting Picks: LA Dodgers v. Milwaukee Brewers (July 20, 2018)
Featured lowdown of the day: The demise of Clayton Kershaw coming a little too soon? His underlying components still show elite effectiveness. Beware betting against him, just yet.
More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/mlb-handicapping-free-baseball-betting-picks-july/
This edition of Basewinner Crunch is an audio and video delight as the Basewinner breaks down the 7/19 HOU/LAA game.
The three main components that affect the projected probability for this game are highlighted.
BW uses the log cutter to look at the important numbers for Dallas Keuchel and he gives you "The Lowdown" on Tyler Skaggs.
Also a look at current both team's bullies.
Finally, the Houston guessing conspiracy theory is examined and BW explains why knowing this and using it correctly could give you value in the market.
We serve up tomorrows plays overnight so you can look and bet the nickel lines and listen on your drive to work
www.ClearDataSports.com
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner breaks down the ARI/COL game.
The three main components that affect the projected probability for this game are highlighted.
BW uses the log cutter to look at the important numbers for Robbie Ray and Kyle Freeland.
Also a look at current both team's bullies.
We serve up tomorrows plays overnight so you can look and bet the nickel lines and listen on your drive to work
www.ClearDataSports.com
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner reviews the YTD, monthly and previous week's results and looks at Wednesday's betting card to uncover value.
BW goes deep into the LAD/SDP game from a pitching standpoint but does miss a great opportunity at another Mr. Hand, Fast Times at Ridgemont High joke.
BW uses the log cutter to look at Kenta Maeda and Joey Lucchesi pitching stat highlights and projections.
Also a look at current both team's bullies.
We serve up tomorrows plays overnight so you can look and bet the nickel lines and listen on your drive to work
www.ClearDataSports.com
It this episode, Basewinner gets down and dirty with xWOBA wins vs. actual wins to spot the teams who were lucky and unlucky in May.
BW also reviews each teams run production vs. xWOBA run production so you can see the teams who over/under produced in the runs category as well.
At the start of the podcast, Mark goes over the CDSI record and series play record year to date and over the last week.
BW closes the podcast out by going over the CDSI pending season win totals and future bets to see where our plays stand based on current results and BP projections. Some of the results were surprising to the Basewinner.
Here are the show links.
Basewinner L2 Years Detailed Record
May Production/xWOBA chart and season win total chart in CDSA slack channel.
Can we score with Thor??
Basewinner reviews the New York Mets and Milwaukee lineups. He also breaks out the log cutter for a look at the starting pitching match-ups.
Also, player-by-player bully review for Mets and Brew Crew.
The BW also goes over each teams W-L record from May 3 to now and compares it with their expected W/L based on daily xWOBA scores.
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation with one attempted joke on this podcast.
In this episode, Basewinner reviews the weekly and YTD record.
He also goes into a value play in tomorrow's BAL v. CWS game.
Basewinner reviews both starters with the log cutter as well as the Baltimore and White Sox lineups. Also, each teams bullpen team and individual ratings are covered.
The Basewinner also talks about a new 5I module that is being developed.
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation with one attempted joke on this podcast.
In what may be the longest diatribe in recent Crunch pod history, the Basewinner goes over a value play in the OAK v. TOR game.
Basewinner reviews the Oakland and Toronto lineups. He also breaks out the log cutter for a look at the starting pitching match-ups.
The Basewinner also talks about our daily component scores chart that use xWOBA and compares an expected score to the actual score.
Also, player-by-player bully review for A's and Jays.
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation with one attempted joke on this podcast.
Off a nice 6-3 +3.66 from the last 2 podcast series plays, the BW gives out five nice series plays for the upcoming series that start Friday.
The focus play of the podcast involves the upcoming games between the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies.
Basewinner reviews the Miami and Colorado lineups. He also looks at the starting pitching match-ups and bullpens for the upcoming 3 game series.
BW also goes over the record and his thoughts in general on the Colorado Rockies.
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation with one attempted joke on this podcast.
Off a nice 4-2 +1.83 from the weekend podcast plays, the BW gives out three nice series plays for the upcoming series that start Monday. This episode of BW Crunch has ratings, projections and sabermetric scores.
The focus play of the podcast involves the upcoming games between the Texas Rangers and Oakland A's.
Basewinner reviews the Oakland and Texas lineups. He also looks at the starting pitching match-ups and bullpens for the upcoming 3 game series.
BW also goes over the record and his thoughts on the Miami Marlins.
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation with one attempted joke on this podcast.
This episode of BW Crunch is a fun one that is packed with ratings, projections and a six pack of series plays. BW is also so jacked he sings twice.
Basewinner has spotted a price in the weekend series market that is criminal. This will be a play and the focus of the podcast. It involves the upcoming games between the Arizona D'Backs and San Diego Padres.
Basewinner reviews the Arizona and San Diego lineups. He also looks at the starting pitching match-ups for the upcoming 3 game series.
He goes into the bullpen ratings extensively as he feels this is a key element of this projection
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation with one attempted joke on this podcast.
On this edition of Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner talks about an upcoming series play between the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays.
BW also reviews the weekend, last week and YTD record.
Basewinner reviews the Texas and Tampa Bay lineups. He also looks at the pitching match-ups for the upcoming 3 game series.
He also talks about the Dodgers and whether they can still win the division..
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation with one attempted joke on this podcast.
On this edition of Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner talks about an upcoming series play between the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds.
BW also reviews the weekend, last week and YTD record.
Basewinner reviews Philly and Cincy lineups. He also looks at the Reds and Phillies bullpens.
He also shows how the Philly pen will look like when they get key men Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter back from the DL.
As always, BW uses detailed analysis and odds computation and has at least two poor attempts at humor.
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner talks about the series play computation process. BW discusses the weighted coin theory and why it needs to be applied in series analysis.
Also, a little Basewinner bully bonus as he adjusts the Milly pen to include the loss of Corey Knebel to injury.
As always, BW goes into detailed analysis and odds computation and has at least two poor attempts at humor.
Happy Opening Day 2018!
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner talks about and reviews the popular overview chart. BW discusses chart updates and goes over each category on the chart.
As BW reviews the chart, he goes into an opening day play in the LAA v. OAK game that will leave the baseball hipsters aghast.
As always, we go into key numbers of a daily match-up. We review our detailed player ratings and how they transfer to our true odds betting line
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, we preview the 2018 MLB NL West from betting perspective.
To view the visuals discussed in the episode, visit: https://cleardatasports.com
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, we review our essential playoff numbers for the 2017 MLB Playoffs.
We have created LCS and World Series win probabilities by looking at every game within each potential series.
Then, we calculate each series probability to find the most valuable baseball playoff future bets. All 43 potential post-season betting series have been looked at.
We have dissected each player on each playoff roster to come up with precise betting ratings and "Crunched" the ratings in our software for your benefit.
Basewinner releases a play on this podcast that has a 15% betting value in the post-season baseball betting market.
Why does everyone suck at betting the NFL?
On this edition of the Basewinner Crunch, the Basewinner reviews the MLB record & then dives into NFL philosophy with Metrics Mike.