Off the Fence: Recent Episodes
Luis Arenzana, Peter Greiff, Alexandre Fuchs
Three Trans-Atlantic Observers discuss every two weeks Markets, Society and other entertaining absurdities. The American educator Alfred Whitney Griswold said, “The only sure weapon against bad ideas is good ideas.” With that in mind, we’ve launched this Podcast OFF THE FENCE. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a subject we think we may know something about, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. We don’t expect to change the world but do hope to change some minds. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions and no swearing. We hope you enjoy it.
We discuss a number of toping relating to markets and society.
- German Energy Subsidies
- Factions in the European Union
- European government credibility and vision
- Trump capacity to become president again
- And why it does not really matter to the success of the US
- No AI for Europe
- Is the Dollar really at risk of losing reserve status?
The Biden Administration Just Declared the Death of Neoliberalism
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/biden-just-declared-the-death-of-neoliberalism.html
We discuss a number of toping relating to markets and society.
- Apple’s Savings Account and is it a new Financial Player
- Future of retail banking
- Can payments ever be costless?
- The weight and cost of financial regulation
- AGI and open source AI tools lead the way
- The power of an independent AI developer scene
- What does AI mean for companies large and small
Andrej Karpathy: Tesla AI, Self-Driving, Optimus, Aliens, and AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdiD-9MMpb0
We discuss a number of toping relating to psychology of markets.
- Silicon Valley Bank
- Stress Tests
- How big is this crisis and what tools remain to fight it
- Credit Suisse goes boom
- European regulators dim view of US Regulators
Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method (sometimes a refresher is helpful)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for volatile markets.
- London as a financial center
- The old magic of the American London headquarter
- Wold Cup woes
- Can an US World Cup do to Football what Liberty Media did to F1
- Wokesness gone too far and the future of Endowments
- The Twitter Saga
Again, go try this
https://chat.openai.com
What even is Europe?
Kraut
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtymaSR3T48
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
We discuss a number of toping relating to psychology of markets.
Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine
Lex Fridman Podcast #289https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a7CDKqWcZ0&t=7650s
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for volatile markets.
- Fraud makes a return to the Stage.
- Interesting new governmental approaches to prosecuting said fraud
- Contrasting SBF and Madoff
- Optimism vs. Rationality with our resident optimist
- Gating and Infrequent marks as a feature not a bug of Private Equity
and other Karl Popperisms...
Go try this
https://chat.openai.com
The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic about Crimea
W. Spaniel Essay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIE1g8kqIpk
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets.
- US Elections
- What if large technology companies can run down 80% on headcount
- Are we getting a taste of future AI impact?
- CBDC forces Central Banks into Politics
Fun viewing
Chamath Palihapitiya: Money, Success, Startups, Energy, Poker & Happiness
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQUDCgMjRc&t=2884s
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets.
- Liquidity in the Treasury Markets.
- USD TIPS (treasury inflation Protected Securities) and inflation expectations
https://treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/#:~:text=As%20the%20name%20implies%2C%20TIPS,you%20get%20the%20increased%20amount
Fun viewing
The Bursting Of The Sovereign Bond Bubble | Lyn Alden
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im071GMdmkw&t=1444s
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets.
- Backward bending supply curve for Civil involvement.
- Are we progressing/regressing in Free markets
and other Karl Popperisms...
Fun viewing
The Ideology of Putin's Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdFtqa54TuM&t=941s
and the response
The Ideology of Putin's Russia (reaction to @Kraut)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7u3Z3GyLiI&t=360s
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss some more areas of impact for deleveraging markets.
- UK Pension and Gilt Chaos.
- Surviving is about Risk Control
Fun viewing
THE U.S: The Next 100 Years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98SjPPrYRno
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss
- US Politics and the outlook for the midterm
- Market down and VIX way up, Market rallies and VIX goes up further
- US as the engine of growth
Fun viewing
TRUSTLESS SOCIETIES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=404IeUzGNZ4&t=172s
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss
- Recent Fed signaling
- This winter in Europe
- How fragile is the global security blanket
China's Economy In A Downfall - Peter Zeihan Chinese Collapse
https://youtu.be/YNNagW550yw
Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk
Lex Fridman Podcast #314
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF-E40pxxbI&t=4982s
Ousted Republican reflects on Trump, democracy and America: ‘The place has lost its mind’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/20/rusty-bowers-interview-trump-arizona-republicans
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss
- Economic impact of Inflation
- Is China Slowing down?
- Trading Bear Markets rallies
- What are scenarios for Interest Rates?
China's Economy In A Downfall - Peter Zeihan Chinese Collapse
https://youtu.be/YNNagW550yw
From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation
by Nouriel Roubini
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/great-stagflation-has-replaced-great-moderation-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-08
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast where we look at current and general topics from an institutional and hedge fund investor point of view, with the benefits of a few decades of managing investments.
Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
Episode Links
Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid (Article)
The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/
The Future of Europe (Video)
https://youtu.be/AkIX5yHF1dU
Business Roundtable Redefines the Purpose of a Corporation to Promote
'An Economy That Serves All Americans' | Business Roundtable (Article)
https://www.businessroundtable.org/business-roundtable-redefines-the-purpose-of-a-corporation-to-promote-an-economy-that-serves-all-americans
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (Article)
Harvard Kennedy School
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/destined-war-can-america-and-china-escape-thucydidess-trap
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence.We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss
- Which model is better equipped to handle economic disruption, recession and change
- Impact of future technological change on wages
- Should we fear China economically
Website
https://www.buzzsprout.com/2018770
Welcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We don’t expect to change the world but do hope to change some minds. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this episode we discuss
- Preserving capital
- Managing emotions
- Setting up for another day
Website
https://www.buzzsprout.com/2018770
Welcome to the first edition Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we’ll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence. We don’t expect to change the world but do hope to change some minds. We’ll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.
In this first podcast, we are going to look at why, from our different points of view, we are optimistic about the western open-market economic model. Inflation, war, supply crises, bear markets and political dysfunction aside, we each have a case to make for free markets. We’ll take a look at some of the vulnerabilities and threats to that model as well. And within that model, we’ll take a look at who might be getting it more right than others.
We discuss
- Inflation
- US vs. Europe conditions
- Market Conditions